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000
FXUS61 KPHI 301345
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
945 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION TODAY. BY TOMORROW, A LOW
WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN OFF SHORE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE
TWO LOWS WILL MERGE OFF SHORE RESULTING IN COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS BURNED OUT THIS MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO
FILTER ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WITH THE 9:30 AM
UPDATE WE SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED SOME OF THE TEMPERATURES DUE TO
MORNING FOR OR THE LACK THEREOF. REMAINDER OF FORECAST LOOKS ON
TRACK. STILL THINK 60 IS A REASONABLE EXPECTATION AT PHL GIVEN
QUICK RESPONSE IN TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING.

TODAY SHOULD END UP BEING A PRETTY NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS TO OUR WEST AND TRIES TO PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS. A
SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING,
ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS OUR AREA AS ANY PRECIP TO
THE NORTHWEST SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT GETS HERE. BEHIND THIS,
THERE COULD BE SOME STRATOCU MOVE DOWN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS.

HIGHS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND BLENDED ECMWF 925MB
TEMPS WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. ANY CLOUDS FROM THE
DAY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NIGHT, BEFORE A RETURN OF SOME CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS WHICH KEEPS
EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE LOW THAT DIGS
SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY, SLIDING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY AND MERGING WITH AN OFF SHORE LOW.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WE WILL TECHNICALLY STILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, IT WON`T FEEL MUCH LIKE IT. THANKS
TO THE OFF SHORE SURFACE LOW, ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
RATHER EARLY IN THE DAY FRIDAY LEADING TO COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER.
EXPECT MOST LOCATION TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS IT LIKELY WON`T GET OUT OF
THE 40S. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINENTAL LOW COULD BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE POCONOS FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN LIGHT
PRECIP ALONG THE COAST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE ONSHORE, AND
UPSLOPE FLOW TO RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIP FURTHER INLAND.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NOW OCCLUDED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS. ONE
INTERESTING THING TO WATCH WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. IF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT AS QUICKLY AS THE GFS IS
SUGGESTING, SNOW SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY AS BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING,
ONLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST MORE OF A DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF AND NAM STILL SHOW SOME CHANCE OF SEEDER FEEDER CLOUDS
THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY. EVEN IF PRECIP DOES CHANGE
OVER, PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE, THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT MUCH OF THE REGION TO SEE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING, INCLUDING THE 15 REMAINING COUNTIES (PRIMARILY IN
DELMARVA, THE URBAN CORRIDOR, AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ) THAT HAVE NOT
YET HAD A HARD FREEZE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST. EXPECT MODEST WARMING EACH DAY THANKS BOTH TO AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AD INCREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COULD SEE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE DISAGREE ABOUT TIMING AND TRACK
OF THIS FEATURE. THUS, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER MOVE IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE
NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WITH BASES AROUND 4,000-5,000 FEET, AND
SHOULD VARY FROM BROKEN TO SCATTERED FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST.
ANOTHER AREA OF BROKEN VFR CEILINGS WILL IMPACT ACY AND MIV UNTIL
ABOUT NOON THIS MORNING. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG
FORMATION.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY EARLY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 5-10
KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS MAY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT, WITH ANY DIRECTION
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...EXPECT CEILING TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING MVFR AT
LEAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. -SHRA COULD MOVE IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL

SATURDAY...IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZY NW WINDS MAY CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AT ACY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IT`S WAY ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BUILD INTO SCA CRITERIA,
AND THEN GALES, WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 40KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. GALE CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WINDS WILL STAY IN SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...GAINES/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300809
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
409 AM EDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER OUR REGION TODAY. BY TOMORROW, A LOW
WILL BEGIN TO DIG SOUTHEAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AT THE SAME
TIME, AN OFF SHORE LOW WILL LIFT NORTHEAST. BY SATURDAY NIGHT, THE
TWO LOWS WILL MERGE OFF SHORE RESULTING IN COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT DUE TO THE MOIST LOW LEVELS LEFT OVER
FROM THE LIGHT RAIN YESTERDAY, AND THERE IS SOME DENSE FOG WITH
VISIBILITIES LESS THAN ONE HALF MILE. HOWEVER, LOOKING AT TRAFFIC
CAMERAS AND THE SATELLITE FOG TOOL, IT LOOKS LIKE THE DENSE FOG IS
PATCHY ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR NOW.
ALSO, DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO FILTER ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, WHICH SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE THE FOG SOME. SO WE`LL KEEP
WITH THE SPS.

ONCE THE FOG BURNS OFF AFTER SUNRISE, TODAY SHOULD END UP BEING A
PRETTY NICE DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR WEST AND TRIES TO
PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN AREAS. A SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING, ALTHOUGH NO PRECIP IS EXPECTED ACROSS
OUR AREA AS ANY PRECIP TO THE NORTHWEST SHOULD DISSIPATE BEFORE IT
GETS HERE. BEHIND THIS, THERE COULD BE SOME STRATOCU MOVE DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST, ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR
NORTHWESTERN AREAS.

HIGHS TODAY WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND BLENDED ECMWF 925MB
TEMPS WHICH KEEPS EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA OVERNIGHT,
ALTHOUGH WE ARE STILL EXPECTING A QUIET NIGHT. ANY CLOUDS FROM THE
DAY SHOULD DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE
EXPECTED EARLY IN THE NIGHT, BEFORE A RETURN OF SOME CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT. OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS WHICH KEEPS
EVERYONE PRETTY CLOSE TO NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE BIGGEST STORY THROUGH THE LONG TERM WILL BE THE LOW THAT DIGS
SE FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION FRIDAY, SLIDING OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY AND MERGING WITH AN OFF SHORE LOW.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...THOUGH WE WILL TECHNICALLY STILL BE IN
THE WARM SECTOR OF THE SYSTEM, IT WON`T FEEL MUCH LIKE IT. THANKS
TO THE OFF SHORE SURFACE LOW, ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
RATHER EARLY IN THE DAY FRIDAY LEADING TO COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER.
EXPECT MOST LOCATION TO SEE HIGHS IN THE 50S, WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS IT LIKELY WON`T GET OUT OF
THE 40S. PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH THE CONTINENTAL LOW COULD BEGIN
TO MOVE INTO THE POCONOS FROM THE WEST AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, THE ONSHORE FLOW COULD RESULT IN LIGHT
PRECIP ALONG THE COAST. BY FRIDAY NIGHT, EXPECT THE ONSHORE, AND
UPSLOPE FLOW TO RESULT IN LIGHT PRECIP FURTHER INLAND.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE NOW OCCLUDED COLD FRONT WILL
MOVE THROUGH ON SATURDAY, BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER CONDITIONS. ONE
INTERESTING THING TO WATCH WILL BE HOW QUICKLY THE DRIER AIR MOVES
IN. IF THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS DRY OUT AS QUICKLY AS THE GFS IS
SUGGESTING, SNOW SEEMS VERY UNLIKELY AS BY LATE SATURDAY EVENING,
ONLY THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED. THIS WOULD
SUGGEST MORE OF A DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE EVENT. HOWEVER, THE
ECMWF AND NAM STILL SHOW SOME CHANCE OF SEEDER FEEDER CLOUDS
THROUGH AT LEAST 09Z, WHICH COULD LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF SNOW
FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY. EVEN IF PRECIP DOES CHANGE
OVER, PRECIP AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VERY LIGHT.

SUNDAY NIGHT...AS SKIES CLEAR AND WINDS BEGIN TO DECREASE, THIS
WILL SET THE STAGE FOR PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. AS A
RESULT...EXPECT MUCH OF THE REGION TO SEE LOWS NEAR OR BELOW
FREEZING, INCLUDING THE 15 REMAINING COUNTIES (PRIMARILY IN
DELMARVA, THE URBAN CORRIDOR, AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ) THAT HAVE NOT
YET HAD A HARD FREEZE.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BROAD HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BEGINS TO
BUILD EAST. EXPECT MODEST WARMING EACH DAY THANKS BOTH TO AIR MASS
MODIFICATION AD INCREASING 1000-500MB THICKNESSES.

WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...COULD SEE AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE THROUGH THE REGION DURING THIS TIME.
HOWEVER BOTH THE GFS AND ECWMF ARE DISAGREE ABOUT TIMING AND TRACK
OF THIS FEATURE. THUS, HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT ALL AIRPORTS THIS MORNING DUE TO THE MOIST LOW
LEVELS LEFT OVER FROM THE LIGHT RAIN FROM YESTERDAY. LIFR VSBYS ARE
OCCURRING AT MOST OF THE SITES AS WELL. DRIER AIR IS STILL EXPECTED
TO FILTER ACROSS THE AREA WHICH SHOULD HELP DISSIPATE THE FOG SOME,
ALTHOUGH WE STILL EXPECT IFR VSBYS THROUGH SUNRISE. THE FOG SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE AND LIFT/DISSIPATE COMPLETELY
THROUGH THE MID-MORNING HOURS. THEN A VFR FORECAST IS EXPECTED FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THERE SHOULD BE SOME CLOUD COVER MOVE
IN ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE DAY WITH BASES
AROUND 4,000-5,000 FEET, AND SHOULD VARY FROM BROKEN TO SCATTERED
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY FOG TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD BE DRY ENOUGH TO PREVENT FOG
FORMATION.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY EARLY WILL BECOME NORTHWEST 5-10
KNOTS THROUGH THE MORNING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. WINDS MAY
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AGAIN OVERNIGHT, WITH ANY DIRECTION
BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...EXPECT CEILING TO LOWER THROUGH THE DAY, BECOMING MVFR AT
LEAST BY FRIDAY EVENING. -SHRA COULD MOVE IN BY FRIDAY NIGHT
RESULTING IN OCCASIONAL MVFR VISIBILITIES AS WELL

SATURDAY...IFR CEILINGS ARE POSSIBLE BY SATURDAY MORNING. BREEZY
NORTHERLY WINDS POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE NIGHT. BREEZY NW WINDS MAY CONTINUE ESPECIALLY AT ACY.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS.


&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WATERS
THROUGH TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IT`S WAY ACROSS THE AREA FROM
THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...WINDS WILL BUILD INTO SCA CRITERIA,
AND THEN GALES, WITH PEAK GUSTS NEAR 40KT POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY
ON SATURDAY. GALE CONDITIONS COULD CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...WINDS WILL STAY IN SCA CRITERIA THROUGH
THIS PERIOD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
AN ONSHORE COMPONENT OF THE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON SATURDAY
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300120
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
920 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA
THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL COMBINE
WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY WHILE
STRENGTHENING, THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM OUR AREA SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS A WELL DEFINED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY.
THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO SHIFT EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT. A
COLD FRONT TIED TO LOW PRESSURE NORTH OF NEW ENGLAND IS WELL EAST OF
OUR COAST. A WEAK SURFACE LOW THOUGH DEVELOPED ALONG IT IN EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA, HOWEVER THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND LIFT CONTINUES TO
TRANSLATE FURTHER AWAY FROM OUR AREA. AS A RESULT, ANY LINGERING
SHOWERS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA INTO FAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY ARE EXPECTED TO END DURING THE REMAINDER OF THIS EVENING.

THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR IS ALLOWING THE CLOUDS TO THIN FROM WEST
TO EAST, AND THIS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. THE DRYING NEAR THE
SURFACE THOUGH WAS HALTED FOR A TIME ESPECIALLY WHERE THE WINDS WENT
CALM. THIS RESULTED IN SOME LOCALIZED FOG ACROSS MAINLY OUR WESTERN
ZONES WHERE THE CLOUD COVER THINNED OUT QUICKER. A PUSH OF DRIER
LOW-LEVEL AIR THOUGH IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. AS
A RESULT, ANY FOG SHOULD TEND TO BE LOCALIZED AND PERHAPS EVEN
DISSIPATE. THE COLDER AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH MAY ALLOW STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS TO OUR WEST TO MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE TWEAKED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND
THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT FOR THE
TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT FIELDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
LOW TEMPERATURES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A NICE FALL DAY WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND DIURNAL AFTN SC....PROBABLY
MOST PREVALENT NW PTN OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL.

FCST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/29 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS RAISED
SLIGHTLY PER THE MILDER 12Z/29 ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION...SO A FAIR FCST IS EXPECTED FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THU NIGHT WITH LOW RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST/PINE BARRENS...TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRI
NIGHT AND THEN COMBINES WITH A SECOND LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SAT. THIS LOW THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THRU SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING ACROSS THE AREA SAT. SCT SHOWERS FRI NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA SAT WITH THE GREATEST POPS SAT/SAT NIGHT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE END SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. HIGHS SAT WILL
BE COLD WITH WIDESPREAD 40S OVER THE AREA. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT... THE DEEP LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM
THE AREA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT MOSTLY
IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S FAR NORTH. WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25
MPH MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.

MON THRU TUE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CREST OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC TUE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW
NORMAL MON THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WED. WE HAVE USED WPC POPS/TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERNIGHT...VFR CEILINGS CONTINUING TO GENERALLY THIN OUT FROM WEST
TO EAST. A SHOWER LINGERING NEAR KMIV AND KACY ON SOUTH AND EAST
THIS EVENING. LIGHT WEST OR SOUTHWEST WIND BECOMING NORTHWEST, WITH
SOME AREAS HAVING A CALM OR LIGHT/VARIABLE WIND. SOME LOCALIZED
IFR/MVFR FOG ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING AT KRDG AND KABE, AND POSSIBLY
KMIV LATER.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH SOME STRATOCUMULUS AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT A CEILING DEVELOPS FOR A TIME IN THE AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY FROM NEAR THE KPHL METRO ON NORTH AND WEST. NORTHWEST
WINDS AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES WITH
OCNL SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING SAT AND LASTING INTO SAT
NIGHT.

SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GENERALLY 5 TO
15 KT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT BUILDING TO GALES
SAT WHICH CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ROUGH SURF AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
   WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MON NGT THRU WED...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
DELIVER ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
MAY OCCUR DURING THE HIGH TIDES DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 292142
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
542 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT HAS SHIFTED TO OUR EAST. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY
FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES
FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST SATURDAY WHILE STRENGTHENING, THEN TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AWAY
FROM OUR AREA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EAST OF OUR AREA WITH THE BAND OF SHOWERS FAIRLY
FAR BEHIND IT. THE ORGANIZED BAND OF SHOWERS THOUGH HAS BEEN FALLING
APART AS IT TRACKS EASTWARD AS IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE LARGE SCALE
FORCING SHIFTS AWAY FROM OUR AREA. HOWEVER, SOME ADDITIONAL ENERGY
AND LIFT LOOKS TO SLIDE NEAR OUR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES THIS EVENING AND
THEREFORE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR AWHILE WITH PERHAPS
EVEN AN INCREASE FOR A TIME THERE. THE POPS WERE ADJUSTED ACCORDINGLY,
WITH SOME DECREASE TO THE NORTH AND WEST AND HIGH CHC TO LOW LIKELY
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST.

THE TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS HAVE DROPPED QUITE A BIT IN THE WAKE
OF THE COLD FRONT, THEREFORE THE HOURLY GRIDS NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS.
THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP ASSIST WITH THIS SO
FAR.

DURING THE NIGHT, CLEARING SHOULD TAKE PLACE FROM WEST-SOUTHWEST TO
EAST-NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH SOME STRATOCUMULUS MAY MOVE INTO PORTIONS OF
OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A NICE FALL DAY WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND DIURNAL AFTN SC....PROBABLY
MOST PREVALENT NW PTN OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL.

FCST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/29 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS RAISED
SLIGHTLY PER THE MILDER 12Z/29 ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION...SO A FAIR FCST IS EXPECTED FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THU NIGHT WITH LOW RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST/PINE BARRENS...TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRI
NIGHT AND THEN COMBINES WITH A SECOND LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SAT. THIS LOW THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THRU SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING ACROSS THE AREA SAT. SCT SHOWERS FRI NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA SAT WITH THE GREATEST POPS SAT/SAT NIGHT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE END SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. HIGHS SAT WILL
BE COLD WITH WIDESPREAD 40S OVER THE AREA. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT... THE DEEP LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM
THE AREA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT MOSTLY
IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S FAR NORTH. WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25
MPH MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.

MON THRU TUE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CREST OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC TUE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW
NORMAL MON THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WED. WE HAVE USED WPC POPS/TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...SOME LEFTOVER SHOWERS FROM NEAR KTTN, KPHL METRO AND KILG
ON EASTWARD EARLY, THEN VFR CEILINGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST.
NORTHWEST WINDS BECOMING LIGHT. SOME POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KRDG, KABE
AND KMIV TOWARD DAYBREAK.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH SCATTERED CLOUDS AT OR ABOVE 4000 FEET, POSSIBLY
BRIEFLY BROKEN COVERAGE IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHWEST WINDS 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES WITH
OCNL SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING SAT AND LASTING INTO SAT
NIGHT.

SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

NW WIND BRIEFLY GUSTY TO 25 KT THIS EVENING SUBSEQUENT TO CFP OTRW
NW WIND 5 TO 15 KT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT BUILDING TO GALES
SAT WHICH CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ROUGH SURF AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
   WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MON NGT THRU WED...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL
DELIVER ELEVATED WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
MAY OCCUR DURING THE HIGH TIDES DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44009 WIND OUT OF SERVICE AND NO SERVICE DATE FOR REPAIR AS
OF YET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...





000
FXUS61 KPHI 291951
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS DEEP LOW WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MOUNT HOLLY IS ALSO SERVICE BACKING UP STERLING THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.
YOU`LL SEE STERLING FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY NWS MOUNT HOLLY.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...BAND OF SHOWERS PROGRESSING ENEWD ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA AT THIS TIME. DRYING OCCURRING IN THE LOW LVLS
WITH THE PRIOR EARLY AFTN CFP LIMITS POTENTIAL RAINFALL. WNW WINDS
GUSTY TO 22 KT FOR AN HOUR OR SO JUST AFTER CFP IN NJ/DE.

TONIGHT...CLEARING FROM WSW TO ENE SUBSEQUENT TO THIS BAND OF
SHOWERS ENDING. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TOMORROW
MORNING IN SOME OF THE TYPICAL LOW LYING COUNTRYSIDE VALLEYS...LOW
LYING AREAS.

FCST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/29 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A NICE FALL DAY WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND DIURNAL AFTN SC....PROBABLY
MOST PREVALENT NW PTN OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL.

FCST BASIS: 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/29 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE WITH TEMPS RAISED
SLIGHTLY PER THE MILDER 12Z/29 ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION...SO A FAIR FCST IS EXPECTED FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THU NIGHT WITH LOW RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST/PINE BARRENS...TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRI
NIGHT AND THEN COMBINES WITH A SECOND LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SAT. THIS LOW THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THRU SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING ACROSS THE AREA SAT. SCT SHOWERS FRI NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA SAT WITH THE GREATEST POPS SAT/SAT NIGHT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE END SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. HIGHS SAT WILL
BE COLD WITH WIDESPREAD 40S OVER THE AREA. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT... THE DEEP LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM
THE AREA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT MOSTLY
IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S FAR NORTH. WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25
MPH MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.

MON THRU TUE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CREST OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC TUE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW
NORMAL MON THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WED. WE HAVE USED WPC POPS/TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR MOUNT HOLLY:

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON
AOA 3500 FT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IS POSSIBLE WITH
HEAVIER SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LEFTOVER RAIN
KACY/KMIV AND SE DELAWARE ENDING BY 01Z/30. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.
FCSTG POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KRDG/KABE/KMIV AFTER 05Z.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT POSSIBLY BRIEFLY BKN IN
THE AFTN.  NW WIND WITH GUSTS UNDER 15 KT.

FOR STERLING: NWS MOUNT HOLLY IS BACKING UP THIS OFFICE AND THEIR
TAFS THROUGH 20Z TODAY.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINANT VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM
WSW TO ENE. SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS ENDING SHORTLY, PER THE
TAFS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH DIURNAL SC IN THE AFTN. LIGHT N TO NW WIND.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES WITH
OCNL SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING SAT AND LASTING INTO SAT
NIGHT.

SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
44065 HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WINDS OTS AND WE DONT KNOW A SERVICE
DATE FOR REPAIR YET.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

NW WIND BRIEFLY GUSTY TO 22 KT THIS EVENING SUBSEQUENT TO CFP OTRW
NW WIND 5 TO 15 KT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT BUILDING TO GALES
SAT WHICH CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ROUGH SURF AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
   WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MON NGT THRU WED...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DELIVER ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR DURING THE
HIGH TIDES SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
44065 BUOY HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WIND OTS AND NO SERVICE DATE
FOR REPAIR AS YET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 350
SHORT TERM...DRAG 350
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 350
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291931
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
331 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL
COMBINE WITH LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY
WHILE STRENGTHENING. THIS DEEP LOW WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY
FROM THE AREA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MOUNT HOLLY IS ALSO SERVICE BACKING UP STERLING THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.
YOU`LL SEE STERLING FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY NWS MOUNT HOLLY.

REST OF TODAY...BAND OF SHOWERS PROGRESSING ENEWD ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA AT THIS TIME. DRYING OCCURRING IN THE LOW LVLS WITH THE PRIOR
EARLY AFTN CFP LIMITS POTENTIAL RAINFALL. WNW WINDS GUSTY TO 22 KT
FOR AN HOUR OR SO JUST AFTER CFP IN NJ/DE.

TONIGHT...CLEARING FROM WSW TO ENE SUBSEQUENT TO THIS BAND OF
SHOWERS ENDING. LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. PATCHY FOG EXPECTED TOMORROW
MORNING IN SOME OF THE TYPICAL LOW LYING COUNTRYSIDE VALLEYS...LOW
LYING AREAS. 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/29 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
A NICE FALL DAY WITH LIGHT NW WINDS AND DIURNAL AFTN SC....PROBABLY
MOST PREVALENT NW PTN OF THE FORECAST AREA. TEMPS JUST A BIT BELOW
NORMAL. 50 50 BLENDED 12Z/29 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE RAISED SLIGHTLY
PER THE MILDER 12Z/29 ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION...SO A FAIR FCST IS EXPECTED FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THU NIGHT WITH LOW RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST/PINE BARRENS...TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRI
NIGHT AND THEN COMBINES WITH A SECOND LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SAT. THIS LOW THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THRU SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING ACROSS THE AREA SAT. SCT SHOWERS FRI NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA SAT WITH THE GREATEST POPS SAT/SAT NIGHT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE END SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. HIGHS SAT WILL
BE COLD WITH WIDESPREAD 40S OVER THE AREA. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT... THE DEEP LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM
THE AREA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT MOSTLY
IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S FAR NORTH. WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25
MPH MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.

MON THRU TUE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CREST OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC TUE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW
NORMAL MON THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WED. WE HAVE USED WPC POPS/TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR MOUNT HOLLY:

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON
AOA 3500 FT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IS POSSIBLE WITH
HEAVIER SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LEFTOVER RAIN
KACY/KMIV AND SE DELAWARE ENDING BY 01Z/30. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.
FCSTG POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KRDG/KABE/KMIV AFTER 05Z.

FOR STERLING: NWS MOUNT HOLLY IS BACKING UP THIS OFFICE AND THEIR
TAFS THROUGH 20Z TODAY.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINANT VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM
WSW TO ENE. SHOWERS AND BRIEF MVFR CONDS ENDING SHORTLY PER THE
TAFS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.

THURSDAY...VFR WITH DIURNAL SC IN THE AFTN. LIGHT N TO NW WIND.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES WITH
OCNL SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING SAT AND LASTING INTO SAT
NIGHT.

SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
44065 HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WINDS OTS AND WE DONT KNOW A SERVICE
DATE FOR REPAIR YET.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH THURSDAY.

NW WIND BRIEFLY GUSTY TO 22 KT THIS EVENING SUBSEQUENT TO CFP OTRW
NW WIND 5 TO 15 KT TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT BUILDING TO GALES
SAT WHICH CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ROUGH SURF AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
   WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MON NGT THRU WED...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DELIVER ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR DURING THE
HIGH TIDES SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
44065 BUOY HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WIND OTS AND NO SERVICE DATE
FOR REPAIR AS YET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 330P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 330P
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 330P
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 330P
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
EQUIPMENT...330P







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291858
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
258 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE
SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY WHILE
STRENGTHENING. THIS DEEP LOW WILL THEN TRACK NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE
AREA SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
MOUNT HOLLY IS ALSO SERVICE BACKING UP STERLING THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.
YOU`LL SEE STERLING FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY NWS MOUNT HOLLY.

1230 PM ESTF: LOWERED TEMPS AS A PROCESS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTN AFTER RAIN DEVELOPS. USED A 50 50 BLEND OF THE NEW 12Z/29
GFS/NAM MOS TEMPS. THERE STILL WILL BE ERRORS BUT TEMPS ARE
NOTABLY COOLER DURING MID AND LATE AFTN PER EXPECTED/MODELED RAIN.

EXPECTING A 2-4 HOUR WIDE BAND OF MEASURABLE SHOWERS. MAX AMT
.4 INCHES IN PWAT OF 1.1 INCHES...HEAVIEST NEAR I-95.

DID NOT INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL VCNTY FENWICK ISLAND DE
LATE TODAY BUT ITS MODELED.

THE CURRENT HOURLY TEMPS OVER E PA AND NE MD IN RAIN COOLING THE
AIR TEMP (WET BULBING) MAY STILL BE 2 DEGREES TOO WARM IN EASTERN
PA DURING MID LATE AFTN (NEAR 52 DEGREES INSTEAD OF THE HOURLY
MID 50S TEMPS AS POSTED AT 1230 PM).

DID NOTICE 1.5 MI MDT TO HEAVY RAIN AT IAD IN THE PAST HOUR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM COASTAL NJ
AND DE AT 17Z. IT TRAILS INTO LOW PRES OVER SE VA WHICH IS A RESPONSE
TO PROCESSES ALOFT THAT WAS GENERATING THE BAND OF RAIN FROM
WESTERN VA INTO E PA NEWD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER ONE THIRD INCH).
ISOLATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRAILING THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACKS FROM VA
TO THE DELMARVA, LEADING TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE
SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
SHIFTING THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING AND OFF THE NJ/DE
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER AND
EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR NOT TOO LONG
AFTER PRECIP ENDS- DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ AND OVERNIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A 5-10 MPH WIND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY WITH CAA AIDING IN A MIXED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREFORE, WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THU NIGHT AND FRIDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE ACROSS THE
REGION...SO A FAIR FCST IS EXPECTED FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THU NIGHT WITH LOW RANGING FROM THE
MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE NORTH/WEST/PINE BARRENS...TO THE UPPER 30S
TO LOW 40S ELSEWHERE.

FRI NIGHT THRU SAT NIGHT...LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST FRI
NIGHT AND THEN COMBINES WITH A SECOND LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
SAT. THIS LOW THEN TRACK NORTHEAST THRU SAT NIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL
BECOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES
ARRIVING ACROSS THE AREA SAT. SCT SHOWERS FRI NIGHT WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE AREA SAT WITH THE GREATEST POPS SAT/SAT NIGHT. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AT THE END SAT NIGHT ACROSS THE FAR NORTH IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION...BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE SIGNIFICANT. HIGHS SAT WILL
BE COLD WITH WIDESPREAD 40S OVER THE AREA. LOWS SAT NIGHT IN THE
MID/UPPER 30S.

SUN AND SUN NIGHT... THE DEEP LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NE AWAY FROM
THE AREA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN. ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE
A COOL AND BREEZY DAY SUNDAY...SKIES SHOULD BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY. HIGHS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL...WITH READINGS TOPPING OUT MOSTLY
IN THE 40S WITH SOME UPPER 30S FAR NORTH. WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25
MPH MOSTLY DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE DAY.

MON THRU TUE...ANOTHER PERIOD OF FAIR WEATHER WITH MODERATING TEMPS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY AND CREST OVER THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC TUE MORNING. HIGH TEMPERATURES STILL A BIT BELOW
NORMAL MON THEN NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE WELL TO THE NORTH AND
THE OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE SHOWING A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA
WED. WE HAVE USED WPC POPS/TEMPS FOR THESE PERIODS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S TO LOW 60S AND LOWS MOSTLY
IN THE 40S.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR MOUNT HOLLY:

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON AOA 3500 FT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IS
POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED SEEING THE 2500 FT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND S NJ EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO SEEING THE BRIEF 1MI HEAVY RAIN MVFR CIG
AT KIAD SINCE 17Z. SHOWER BAND LASTS 2-4 HOURS ONCE IT STARTS.

LATEST HIGH RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z NAM ARE SUGGESTING
SHOWERS MAY NOT ARRIVE KACY AND KMIV TIL AROUND 21-22Z AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING.

LIGHT SHIFTING WIND TURNING W TO NW AND BRIEFLY GUSTING 22 KT (1
HOUR LESS) BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LEFTOVER RAIN
KACY/KMIV AND SE DELAWARE ENDING BY 03Z/30. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.
FCSTG POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KRDG/KABE/KMIV AFTER 05Z.

FOR STERLING: NWS MOUNT HOLLY IS BACKING UP THIS OFFICE AND THEIR
TAFS THROUGH 20Z TODAY.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINANT VFR CIGS. A 2-4 HOUR
WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSES THE AREA WITH BRIEF 1-3 MI RAIN AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...VFR CLEARING WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT THRU SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER CIGS/VSBYS AT TIMES WITH
OCNL SHOWERS. GUSTY WINDS DEVELOPING SAT AND LASTING INTO SAT
NIGHT.

SUNDAY THRU MONDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
44065 HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WINDS OTS AND WE DONT KNOW A SERVICE
DATE FOR REPAIR YET.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

WIND WAS SHIFTING NW WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
NW WIND TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
FRI NIGHT THRU SUNDAY...SCA CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT BUILDING TO GALES
SAT WHICH CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY. ROUGH SURF AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS
   WITH LOWER VSBYS.
MON...SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
MON NGT THRU WED...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL DELIVER ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS THIS WEEKEND. MINOR TIDAL FLOODING MAY OCCUR DURING THE
HIGH TIDES SAT AND SAT NIGHT.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
SERVICE BACKUP FOR STERLING - LWX TODAY. HAVE LISTED THIS UNDER
EQUIPMENT...JUST IN CASE THIS SERVICE BACKUP MESSAGE IS MISSED IN
THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTION.

44065 BUOY HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WIND OTS AND NO SERVICE DATE
FOR REPAIR AS YET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...O`HARA
EQUIPMENT...DRAG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291751
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
151 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE MID ATLANTIC COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TRAILS
INTO WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA. THE COLD FRONT AND LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT
THE AREA THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, BEFORE
COMBINING WITH A DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW OFFSHORE
OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOUNT HOLLY IS ALSO SERVICE BACKING UP STERLING THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.
YOU`LL SEE STERLING FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY NWS MOUNT HOLLY.

1230 PM ESTF: LOWERED TEMPS AS A PROCESS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTN AFTER RAIN DEVELOPS. USED A 50 50 BLEND OF THE NEW 12Z/29
GFS/NAM MOS TEMPS. THERE STILL WILL BE ERRORS BUT TEMPS ARE
NOTABLY COOLER DURING MID AND LATE AFTN PER EXPECTED/MODELED RAIN.

EXPECTING A 2-4 HOUR WIDE BAND OF MEASURABLE SHOWERS. MAX AMT
.4 INCHES IN PWAT OF 1.1 INCHES...HEAVIEST NEAR I-95.

DID NOT INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL VCNTY FENWICK ISLAND DE
LATE TODAY BUT ITS MODELED.

THE CURRENT HOURLY TEMPS OVER E PA AND NE MD IN RAIN COOLING THE
AIR TEMP (WET BULBING) MAY STILL BE 2 DEGREES TOO WARM IN EASTERN
PA DURING MID LATE AFTN (NEAR 52 DEGREES INSTEAD OF THE HOURLY
MID 50S TEMPS AS POSTED AT 1230 PM).

DID NOTICE 1.5 MI MDT TO HEAVY RAIN AT IAD IN THE PAST HOUR.

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM COASTAL NJ
AND DE AT 17Z. IT TRAILS INTO LOW PRES OVER SE VA WHICH IS A RESPONSE
TO PROCESSES ALOFT THAT WAS GENERATING THE BAND OF RAIN FROM
WESTERN VA INTO E PA NEWD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER ONE THIRD INCH).
ISOLATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRAILING THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACKS FROM VA
TO THE DELMARVA, LEADING TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE
SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
SHIFTING THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING AND OFF THE NJ/DE
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER AND
EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR NOT TOO LONG
AFTER PRECIP ENDS- DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ AND OVERNIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A 5-10 MPH WIND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY WITH CAA AIDING IN A MIXED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREFORE, WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE A DECLINE IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH. WE
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS THE
PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST UNDERNEATH THE MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH. AS WE GO INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL SWING TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN GETTING ABSORBED BY THE COASTAL LOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT STARTS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY A
COLD RAIN AS MODELS NOW KEEP 925/850 MB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING,
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A MIXTURE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS.

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN AND
WRAP UP MORE. THE GFS KEEPS THE PRECIP CLOSE TO THE SURFACE AND
MID-LEVEL LOW AND MOSTLY OFFSHORE, BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
PRECIP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND EXTEND IT PRETTY FAR TO OUR
NORTHWEST, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW THE PRECIP MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER LOW PULL TO OUR
NORTHEAST, SO WE`LL HAVE DECREASING POPS OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS
KEEP THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MIX OR COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IF
THERE IS STILL ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO GUST BETWEEN 30-40 MPH, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT COLD AND BLUSTERY AS A STIFF
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS
COULD CONTINUE TO GUST 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND NOSE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IS FOR
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH IF THE WARM FRONT
PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR MOUNT HOLLY:

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS THIS
AFTERNOON AOA 3500 FT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IS
POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT AND CONFIDENCE HAS
INCREASED SEEING THE 2500 FT DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL AND S NJ EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO SEEING THE BRIEF 1MI HEAVY RAIN MVFR CIG
AT KIAD SINCE 17Z. SHOWER BAND LASTS 2-4 HOURS ONCE IT STARTS.

LATEST HIGH RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z NAM ARE SUGGESTING
SHOWERS MAY NOT ARRIVE KACY AND KMIV TIL AROUND 21-22Z AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING.

LIGHT SHIFTING WIND TURNING W TO NW AND BRIEFLY GUSTING 22 KT (1
HOUR LESS) BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LEFTOVER RAIN
KACY/KMIV AND SE DELAWARE ENDING BY 03Z/30. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.
FCSTG POSSIBLE MVFR FOG AT KRDG/KABE/KMIV AFTER 05Z.

FOR STERLING: NWS MOUNT HOLLY IS BACKING UP THIS OFFICE AND THEIR
TAFS THROUGH 20Z TODAY.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINANT VFR CIGS. A 2-4 HOUR
WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS CROSSES THE AREA WITH BRIEF 1-3 MI RAIN AND
MVFR CIGS IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS.

TONIGHT...VFR CLEARING WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER END VFR OR UPPER END MVFR WITH
CIGS 2,500-3,500 EXPECTED. LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
25-30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
44065 HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WINDS OTS AND WE DONT KNOW A SERVICE
DATE FOR REPAIR YET.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

WIND WAS SHIFTING NW WITH A FEW GUSTS AROUND 20 KT THIS AFTERNOON.
NW WIND TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS A SEAS WILL BE INCREASING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY, BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
SERVICE BACKUP FOR STERLING - LWX TODAY. HAVE LISTED THIS UNDER
EQUIPMENT...JUST IN CASE THIS SERVICE BACKUP MESSAGE IS MISSED IN
THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTION.

44065 BUOY HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WIND OTS AND NO SERVICE DATE
FOR REPAIR AS YET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 150
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 150
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 150
EQUIPMENT...150







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291639
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1239 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSING NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AT NOON WILL MOVE OFF
THE COAST THIS EVENING. THE FRONT TRAILS INTO WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER
SE VA. THE COLD FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MOVING OFFSHORE
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND
SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY, BEFORE COMBINING WITH A DEVELOPING
AND STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WELL NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY,
THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST
MONDAY, THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOUNT HOLLY IS ALSO SERVICE BACKING UP STERLING THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.
YOU`LL SEE STERLING FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY NWS MOUNT HOLLY.

1230 PM ESTF: LOWERED TEMPS AS A PROCESS FROM WEST TO EAST THIS
AFTN AFTER RAIN DEVELOPS. USED A 50 50 BLEND OF THE NEW 12Z/29
GFS/NAM MOS TEMPS. THERE STILL WILL BE ERRORS BUT TEMPS ARE
NOTABLY COOLER DURING MID AND LATE AFTN PER EXPECTED/MODELED RAIN.

EXPECTING A 2-4 HOUR WIDE BAND OF MEASURABLE SHOWERS. MAX AMT
.4 INCHES IN PWAT OF 1.1 INCHES...HEAVIEST NEAR I-95.

DID NOT INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL VCNTY FENWICK ISLAND DE
LATE TODAY BUT ITS MODELED.

THE CURRENT HOURLY TEMPS OVER E PA AND NE MD IN RAIN COOLING THE
AIR TEMP (WET BULBING) MAY STILL BE 2 DEGREES TOO WARM IN EASTERN
PA DURING MID LATE AFTN (NEAR 52 DEGREES INSTEAD OF THE HOURLY
MID 50S TEMPS AS POSTED AT 1230 PM).

A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD FROM EASTERN NJ
AT 17Z. IT TRAILS INTO LOW PRES OVER SE VA WHICH IS A RESPONSE TO
PROCESSES ALOFT THAT WAS GENERATING THE BAND OF RAIN FROM WESTERN
VA INTO E PA NEWD.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER ONE THIRD INCH).
ISOLATED SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
WEAK DISTURBANCE TRAILING THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACKS FROM VA
TO THE DELMARVA, LEADING TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE
SOMEWHERE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
SHIFTING THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING AND OFF THE NJ/DE
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER AND
EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR NOT TOO LONG
AFTER PRECIP ENDS- DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ AND OVERNIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A 5-10 MPH WIND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY WITH CAA AIDING IN A MIXED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREFORE, WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE A DECLINE IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH. WE
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS THE
PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST UNDERNEATH THE MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH. AS WE GO INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL SWING TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN GETTING ABSORBED BY THE COASTAL LOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT STARTS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY A
COLD RAIN AS MODELS NOW KEEP 925/850 MB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING,
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A MIXTURE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS.

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN AND
WRAP UP MORE. THE GFS KEEPS THE PRECIP CLOSE TO THE SURFACE AND
MID-LEVEL LOW AND MOSTLY OFFSHORE, BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
PRECIP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND EXTEND IT PRETTY FAR TO OUR
NORTHWEST, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW THE PRECIP MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER LOW PULL TO OUR
NORTHEAST, SO WE`LL HAVE DECREASING POPS OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS
KEEP THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MIX OR COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IF
THERE IS STILL ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO GUST BETWEEN 30-40 MPH, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT COLD AND BLUSTERY AS A STIFF
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS
COULD CONTINUE TO GUST 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND NOSE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IS FOR
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH IF THE WARM FRONT
PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR MOUNT HOLLY:

THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AOA 3500
FT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHRA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDS IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. SHOWER BAND LASTS 2-4 HOURS ONCE IT STARTS.

LATEST HIGH RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z NAM ARE SUGGESTING
SHOWERS MAY NOT ARRIVE KACY AND KMIV TIL AROUND 21Z AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING.

LIGHT SHIFTING WIND TURNING W TO NW AND BRIEFLY GUSTING 20 KT (1
HOUR LESS) BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LEFTOVER RAIN
KACY/KMIV AND SE DELAWARE ENDING BY 03Z/30. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.

FOR STERLING: NWS MOUNT HOLLY IS BACKING UP THIS OFFICE AND THEIR
TAFS THROUGH 20Z TODAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CIGS. A 2-4 HOUR WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS
CROSSES THE AREA. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN A HEAVIER SHOWER.

TONIGHT...CLEARING WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER END VFR OR UPPER END MVFR WITH
CIGS 2,500-3,500 EXPECTED. LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
25-30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
44065 HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WINDS OTS AND WE DONT KNOW A
SERVICE DATE YET.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SW WIND 10-15 KT SHIFTING WNW BY MID AFTERNOON WITH SCT GUSTS TO 20
KT. NW WIND TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS A SEAS WILL BE INCREASING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY, BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
SERVICE BACKUP FOR STERLING - LWX TODAY. HAVE LISTED THIS UNDER
EQUIPMENT...JUST IN CASE THIS SERVICE BACKUP MESSAGE IS MISSED IN
THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTION.

44009 BUOY HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WIND OTS AND NO SERVICE DATE
YET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1239
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1239
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1239
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291603
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1203 PM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY,
BEFORE COMBINING WITH A DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW
OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOUNT HOLLY IS ALSO SERVICE BACKING UP STERLING THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.
YOU`LL SEE STERLING FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY NWS MOUNT HOLLY.

1152 AM ESTF: INCREASED SHOWER PROB THIS AFTERNOON BY 30-40 PCT
PER THE RADAR...HRRR...12Z NAM/12Z GFS QPF FCST AS WELL AS WPC
QPF. EXPECTING A 2-4 HOUR WIDE BAND OF MEASURABLE SHOWERS. MAX AMT
.4 INCHES IN PWAT OF 1.1 INCHES...HEAVIEST NEAR I-95.

DID NOT INCLUDE ISOLATED THUNDER POTENTIAL VCNTY FENWICK ISLAND DE
LATE TODAY BUT ITS MODELED.

THE CURRENT HOURLY TEMPS OVER E PA AND NE MD IN RAIN COOLING THE
AIR TEMP (WET BULBING) MAY BE 5 DEGREES TOO WARM IN EASTERN PA
DURING MID AFTN (NEAR 52 DEGREES INSTEAD OF THE HOURLY UPPER 50S-
NEAR 60 TEMPS AS POSTED AT 930AM). WE MAY LOWER THOSE MID AFTN
TEMPS IN THE 1230 PM ESTF.

A COLD FRONT COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THRU
EASTERN PA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS, THE TREND WAS TO
SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS AS THE SEPARATION DISTANCE
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL LIFT FROM THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
GROWS. MADE NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE POP/WX GRIDS TO TAKE THE DELAY
INTO ACCOUNT. SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER ONE THIRD INCH). ISOLATED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRAILING THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACKS FROM VA TO
THE DELMARVA, LEADING TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
SHIFTING THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING AND OFF THE NJ/DE
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER AND
EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR NOT TOO LONG
AFTER PRECIP ENDS- DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ AND OVERNIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A 5-10 MPH WIND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY WITH CAA AIDING IN A MIXED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREFORE, WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE A DECLINE IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH. WE
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS THE
PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST UNDERNEATH THE MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH. AS WE GO INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL SWING TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN GETTING ABSORBED BY THE COASTAL LOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT STARTS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY A
COLD RAIN AS MODELS NOW KEEP 925/850 MB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING,
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A MIXTURE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS.

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN AND
WRAP UP MORE. THE GFS KEEPS THE PRECIP CLOSE TO THE SURFACE AND
MID-LEVEL LOW AND MOSTLY OFFSHORE, BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
PRECIP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND EXTEND IT PRETTY FAR TO OUR
NORTHWEST, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW THE PRECIP MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER LOW PULL TO OUR
NORTHEAST, SO WE`LL HAVE DECREASING POPS OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS
KEEP THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MIX OR COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IF
THERE IS STILL ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO GUST BETWEEN 30-40 MPH, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT COLD AND BLUSTERY AS A STIFF
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS
COULD CONTINUE TO GUST 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND NOSE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IS FOR
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH IF THE WARM FRONT
PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR MOUNT HOLLY:

THIS AFTERNOON...PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON AOA 5000
FT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHRA
BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDS IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. SHOWER BAND LASTS 2-4 HOURS ONCE IT STARTS.

LATEST HIGH RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z NAM ARE SUGGESTING
SHOWERS MAY NOT ARRIVE KACY AND KMIV TIL AROUND 21Z AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING.

LIGHT SHIFTING WIND TURNING W TO NW AND BRIEFLY GUSTING 20 KT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LEFTOVER RAIN
KACY/KMIV AND SE DELAWARE ENDING BY 03Z/30. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.

FOR STERLING: NWS MOUNT HOLLY IS BACKING UP THIS OFFICE AND THEIR
TAFS THROUGH 20Z TODAY.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR CIGS. A 2-4 HOUR WIDE BAND OF SHOWERS
CROSSES THE AREA. BRIEF MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN A HEAVIER SHOWER.

TONIGHT...CLEARING WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER END VFR OR UPPER END MVFR WITH
CIGS 2,500-3,500 EXPECTED. LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
25-30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
44065 HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WINDS OTS AND WE DONT KNOW A
SERVICE DATE YET.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SW WIND 10-15 KT SHIFTING WNW LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GUST TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. NW WIND TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS A SEAS WILL BE INCREASING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY, BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
SERVICE BACKUP FOR STERLING - LWX TODAY. HAVE LISTED THIS UNDER
EQUIPMENT...JUST IN CASE THIS SERVICE BACKUP MESSAGE IS MISSED IN
THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTION.

44009 BUOY HAS RETURNED TO SVC. 44009 WIND OTS AND NO SERVICE DATE
YET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1202P
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1202 P
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
EQUIPMENT...1202P







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291403
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1003 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY,
BEFORE COMBINING WITH A DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW
OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOUNT HOLLY IS ALSO SERVICE BACKING UP STERLING THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.
YOU`LL SEE STERLING FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY NWS MOUNT HOLLY.

930 AM ESTF: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE PRIOR FORECAST FOR TODAY.
HOWEVER A WORD OF CAUTION...THE CURRENT HOURLY TEMPS OVER E PA
AND NE MD IN RAIN COOLING THE AIR TEMP (WET BULBING) MAY BE 5
DEGREES TOO WARM IN EASTERN PA DURING MID AFTN (NEAR 52 DEGREES
INSTEAD OF THE HOURLY UPPER 50S-NEAR 60 TEMPS AS POSTED AT 930AM).
ONCE WE`RE MORE CONFIDENT...WE MAY RAISE POPS 30-40 PCT FOR THIS AFTN
IN E PA TO CATEGORICAL AND LOWER MID AFTN TEMPS...WONT KNOW MUCH
MORE TILL 11 AM OR NOON. 12Z NAM IS STARTING TO MIRROR THE WETTER
HEAVIER 06Z/29 GFS.

A COLD FRONT COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THRU
EASTERN PA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS, THE TREND WAS TO
SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS AS THE SEPARATION DISTANCE
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL LIFT FROM THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
GROWS. MADE NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE POP/WX GRIDS TO TAKE THE DELAY
INTO ACCOUNT. SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY UNDER ONE THIRD INCH). ISOLATED
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRAILING THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACKS FROM VA TO
THE DELMARVA, LEADING TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
SHIFTING THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING AND OFF THE NJ/DE
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER AND
EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR NOT TOO LONG
AFTER PRECIP ENDS- DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ AND OVERNIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A 5-10 MPH WIND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY WITH CAA AIDING IN A MIXED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREFORE, WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE A DECLINE IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH. WE
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS THE
PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST UNDERNEATH THE MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH. AS WE GO INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL SWING TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN GETTING ABSORBED BY THE COASTAL LOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT STARTS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY A
COLD RAIN AS MODELS NOW KEEP 925/850 MB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING,
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A MIXTURE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS.

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN AND
WRAP UP MORE. THE GFS KEEPS THE PRECIP CLOSE TO THE SURFACE AND
MID-LEVEL LOW AND MOSTLY OFFSHORE, BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
PRECIP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND EXTEND IT PRETTY FAR TO OUR
NORTHWEST, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW THE PRECIP MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER LOW PULL TO OUR
NORTHEAST, SO WE`LL HAVE DECREASING POPS OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS
KEEP THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MIX OR COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IF
THERE IS STILL ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO GUST BETWEEN 30-40 MPH, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT COLD AND BLUSTERY AS A STIFF
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS
COULD CONTINUE TO GUST 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND NOSE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IS FOR
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH IF THE WARM FRONT
PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR MOUNT HOLLY:

TODAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS TODAY AOA 5000 FT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT
CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDS IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME.

LATEST HIGH RES SHORT TERM GUIDANCE AND THE 12Z NAM ARE SUGGESTING
SHOWERS MAY NOT ARRIVE KACY AND KMIV TIL AROUND 21Z AND MAY LINGER
THROUGH 01Z THIS EVENING.

LIGHT SHIFTING WIND TURNING W TO NW AND BRIEFLY GUSTING 20 KT
BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LEFTOVER RAIN
KACY/KMIV AND SE DELAWARE ENDING BY 03Z/30. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.

FOR STERLING: NWS MOUNT HOLLY IS BACKING UP THIS OFFICE AND THEIR
TAFS THROUGH 20Z TODAY.

ALL TAFS WERE AMENDED BETWEEN 930 AND 10AM FOR A DELAY IN SHOWERS
AND/OR ADDITIONAL TAF INFO BEYOND 24 HOURS.

TODAY...VFR CIGS. CDFNT CROSSING TERMINALS TDA. THE WSHFT TO NW
WILL COME FIRST...AND IS IN PROGRESS NOW THROUGH KBWI KDCA.
SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW THE WIND SHIFT BY ABOUT 2-4 HOURS AND BRIEF
MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN A HEAVIER SHOWER.

TONIGHT...CLEARING WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER END VFR OR UPPER END MVFR WITH
CIGS 2,500-3,500 EXPECTED. LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
25-30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT.

SW WIND 10-15 KT SHIFTING WNW LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GUST TO
20 KT POSSIBLE. NW WIND TONIGHT AT 10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS A SEAS WILL BE INCREASING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY, BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
SERVICE BACKUP FOR STERLING - LWX TODAY. HAVE LISTED THIS UNDER
EQUIPMENT...JUST IN CASE THIS SERVICE BACKUP MESSAGE IS MISSED IN
THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN  1003A
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1003A
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1003A
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291253
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
853 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY,
BEFORE COMBINING WITH A DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW
OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
MOUNT HOLLY IS ALSO SERVICE BACKING UP STERLING THROUGH 4 PM TODAY.
YOU`LL SEE STERLING FORECAST PRODUCTS ISSUED BY NWS MOUNT HOLLY.

A COLD FRONT COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THRU
EASTERN PA THIS MORNING AND OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.
BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS, THE TREND WAS TO
SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS AS THE SEPARATION DISTANCE
BETWEEN THE FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL LIFT FROM THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
GROWS. MADE NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE POP/WX GRIDS TO TAKE THE DELAY
INTO ACCOUNT. SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND RAINFALL
AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AROUND ONE-TENTH INCH). SLIGHTLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
TRAILING THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACKS FROM VA TO THE DELMARVA,
LEADING TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF
THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S IN NORTHEASTERN PA/NW NJ TO AROUND
70F NEAR THE COAST. THESE HIGHS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR IN WAKE OF
FROPA/PRESSURE TROUGH AS WARMER AIR INITIALLY MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND THE COLDER AIR LAGS WELL BEHIND. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
LATER IN THE DAY AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
SHIFTING THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING AND OFF THE NJ/DE
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER AND
EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR NOT TOO LONG
AFTER PRECIP ENDS- DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ AND OVERNIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A 5-10 MPH WIND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY WITH CAA AIDING IN A MIXED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREFORE, WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE A DECLINE IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH. WE
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS THE
PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST UNDERNEATH THE MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH. AS WE GO INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL SWING TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN GETTING ABSORBED BY THE COASTAL LOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT STARTS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY A
COLD RAIN AS MODELS NOW KEEP 925/850 MB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING,
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A MIXTURE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS.

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN AND
WRAP UP MORE. THE GFS KEEPS THE PRECIP CLOSE TO THE SURFACE AND
MID-LEVEL LOW AND MOSTLY OFFSHORE, BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
PRECIP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND EXTEND IT PRETTY FAR TO OUR
NORTHWEST, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW THE PRECIP MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER LOW PULL TO OUR
NORTHEAST, SO WE`LL HAVE DECREASING POPS OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS
KEEP THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MIX OR COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IF
THERE IS STILL ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO GUST BETWEEN 30-40 MPH, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT COLD AND BLUSTERY AS A STIFF
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS
COULD CONTINUE TO GUST 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND NOSE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IS FOR
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH IF THE WARM FRONT
PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR MOUNT HOLLY:

TODAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR CIGS TODAY AOA 5000 FT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH HEAVIER SHRA BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT
CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDS IS VERY LOW AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SHIFTING
WIND TURNING W TO NW AND BRIEFLY GUSTING 20 KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS CLEARING FROM WEST TO EAST WITH LEFTOVER RAIN
IN S DELAWARE ENDING. LIGHT NORTHWEST WIND.

FOR STERLING: NWS MOUNT HOLLY IS BACKING UP THIS OFFICE AND THEIR
TAFS THROUGH 20Z TODAY.

TODAY...VFR CIGS. CDFNT CROSSING TERMINALS TDA. THE WSHFT TO NW
WILL COME FIRST...AND IS IN PROGRESS NOW THROUGH KBWI KDCA.
SHOWERS WILL FOLLOW THE WIND SHIFT BY ABOUT 2-4 HOURS AND BRIEF
MVFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN A HEAVIER SHOWER.

TONIGHT...CLEARING WITH A LIGHT NW WIND.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER END VFR OR UPPER END MVFR WITH
CIGS 2,500-3,500 EXPECTED. LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
25-30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WIND 10-15 KT SHIFTING WNW LATER
THIS AFTERNOON WITH A GUST TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. NW WIND TONIGHT AT
10 TO 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS A SEAS WILL BE INCREASING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY, BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
SERVICE BACKUP FOR STERLING - LWX TODAY. LISTED UNDER EQUIPMENT...JUST
IN CASE THE MESSAGE IS MISSED IN THE NEAR TERM AND AVIATION SECTION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 852
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/KLEIN/ROBERTSON 852
MARINE...DRAG/KLEIN/ROBERTSON 852
EQUIPMENT...852








000
FXUS61 KPHI 291037 AAA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
637 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY,
BEFORE COMBINING WITH A DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW
OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER TROUGH TO
OUR WEST OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS. THIS TROUGH WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VERTICALLY-STACKED CYCLONE JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY.
AT THE SURFACE, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED JUST WEST OF
I-81 IN CENTRAL PA AT 07Z. AN ANAFRONTAL STRUCTURE WAS NOTED WITH
THIS FRONT AS PRECIP AND SOUTHWEST FLOW TRAILS THE BOUNDARY.

THE COLD FRONT COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THRU
EASTERN PA EARLY THIS MORNING AND OFF THE COAST BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS, THE
TREND WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS AS THE SEPARATION
DISTANCE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL LIFT FROM THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH GROWS. MADE NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE POP/WX GRIDS TO TAKE THE
DELAY INTO ACCOUNT. SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AROUND ONE-TENTH INCH).
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRAILING THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACKS FROM VA TO THE
DELMARVA, LEADING TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S IN NORTHEASTERN PA/NW NJ TO AROUND
70F NEAR THE COAST. THESE HIGHS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR IN WAKE OF
FROPA/PRESSURE TROUGH AS WARMER AIR INITIALLY MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND THE COLDER AIR LAGS WELL BEHIND. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
LATER IN THE DAY AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
SHIFTING THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING AND OFF THE NJ/DE
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER AND
EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR NOT TOO LONG
AFTER PRECIP ENDS- DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ AND OVERNIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A 5-10 MPH WIND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY WITH CAA AIDING IN A MIXED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREFORE, WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE A DECLINE IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH. WE
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS THE
PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST UNDERNEATH THE MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH. AS WE GO INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL SWING TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN GETTING ABSORBED BY THE COASTAL LOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT STARTS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY A
COLD RAIN AS MODELS NOW KEEP 925/850 MB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING,
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A MIXTURE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS.

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN AND
WRAP UP MORE. THE GFS KEEPS THE PRECIP CLOSE TO THE SURFACE AND
MID-LEVEL LOW AND MOSTLY OFFSHORE, BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
PRECIP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND EXTEND IT PRETTY FAR TO OUR
NORTHWEST, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW THE PRECIP MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER LOW PULL TO OUR
NORTHEAST, SO WE`LL HAVE DECREASING POPS OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS
KEEP THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MIX OR COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IF
THERE IS STILL ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO GUST BETWEEN 30-40 MPH, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT COLD AND BLUSTERY AS A STIFF
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS
COULD CONTINUE TO GUST 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND NOSE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IS FOR
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH IF THE WARM FRONT
PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY WILL BE PREDOMINATELY VFR TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER SHRA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE VERY LOW IN THIS HAPPENING. DELAYED
ARRIVAL OF SHRA WITH THE 06Z TAFS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCES
BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
00Z-06Z. LIGHT SW WINDS EARLY THIS MRNG BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTN
AND EVENTUALLY NW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER END VFR OR UPPER END MVFR WITH
CIGS 2,500-3,500 EXPECTED. LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
25-30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WAS CANCELLED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS HAVE REMAINED
STEADY AROUND 3-4 FT AND WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS A SEAS WILL BE INCREASING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY, BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 291037 AAA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
637 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY,
BEFORE COMBINING WITH A DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW
OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER TROUGH TO
OUR WEST OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS. THIS TROUGH WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VERTICALLY-STACKED CYCLONE JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY.
AT THE SURFACE, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED JUST WEST OF
I-81 IN CENTRAL PA AT 07Z. AN ANAFRONTAL STRUCTURE WAS NOTED WITH
THIS FRONT AS PRECIP AND SOUTHWEST FLOW TRAILS THE BOUNDARY.

THE COLD FRONT COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THRU
EASTERN PA EARLY THIS MORNING AND OFF THE COAST BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS, THE
TREND WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS AS THE SEPARATION
DISTANCE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL LIFT FROM THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH GROWS. MADE NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE POP/WX GRIDS TO TAKE THE
DELAY INTO ACCOUNT. SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AROUND ONE-TENTH INCH).
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRAILING THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACKS FROM VA TO THE
DELMARVA, LEADING TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S IN NORTHEASTERN PA/NW NJ TO AROUND
70F NEAR THE COAST. THESE HIGHS MAY ACTUALLY OCCUR IN WAKE OF
FROPA/PRESSURE TROUGH AS WARMER AIR INITIALLY MIXES DOWN TO THE
SURFACE AND THE COLDER AIR LAGS WELL BEHIND. TEMPS SHOULD FALL
LATER IN THE DAY AFTER THE PRECIP EXITS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
SHIFTING THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING AND OFF THE NJ/DE
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER AND
EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR NOT TOO LONG
AFTER PRECIP ENDS- DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ AND OVERNIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A 5-10 MPH WIND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY WITH CAA AIDING IN A MIXED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREFORE, WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE A DECLINE IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH. WE
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS THE
PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST UNDERNEATH THE MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH. AS WE GO INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL SWING TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN GETTING ABSORBED BY THE COASTAL LOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT STARTS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY A
COLD RAIN AS MODELS NOW KEEP 925/850 MB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING,
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A MIXTURE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS.

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN AND
WRAP UP MORE. THE GFS KEEPS THE PRECIP CLOSE TO THE SURFACE AND
MID-LEVEL LOW AND MOSTLY OFFSHORE, BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
PRECIP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND EXTEND IT PRETTY FAR TO OUR
NORTHWEST, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW THE PRECIP MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER LOW PULL TO OUR
NORTHEAST, SO WE`LL HAVE DECREASING POPS OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS
KEEP THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MIX OR COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IF
THERE IS STILL ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO GUST BETWEEN 30-40 MPH, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT COLD AND BLUSTERY AS A STIFF
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS
COULD CONTINUE TO GUST 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND NOSE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IS FOR
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH IF THE WARM FRONT
PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY WILL BE PREDOMINATELY VFR TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER SHRA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE VERY LOW IN THIS HAPPENING. DELAYED
ARRIVAL OF SHRA WITH THE 06Z TAFS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCES
BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
00Z-06Z. LIGHT SW WINDS EARLY THIS MRNG BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTN
AND EVENTUALLY NW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER END VFR OR UPPER END MVFR WITH
CIGS 2,500-3,500 EXPECTED. LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
25-30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WAS CANCELLED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AS SEAS HAVE REMAINED
STEADY AROUND 3-4 FT AND WINDS AROUND 10-15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS A SEAS WILL BE INCREASING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY, BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON








000
FXUS61 KPHI 290758
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
358 AM EDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTH OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY,
BEFORE COMBINING WITH A DEVELOPING AND STRENGTHENING COASTAL LOW
OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST SATURDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WELL
NORTHEAST OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN OFFSHORE TUESDAY AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
OVERNIGHT WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN UPPER TROUGH TO
OUR WEST OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGIONS. THIS TROUGH WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH A VERTICALLY-STACKED CYCLONE JUST SOUTH OF JAMES BAY.
AT THE SURFACE, AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WAS ANALYZED JUST WEST OF
I-81 IN CENTRAL PA AT 07Z. AN ANAFRONTAL STRUCTURE WAS NOTED WITH
THIS FRONT AS PRECIP AND SOUTHWEST FLOW TRAILS THE BOUNDARY.

THE COLD FRONT COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD THRU
EASTERN PA EARLY THIS MORNING AND OFF THE COAST BY EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. BASED ON LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE AND OBSERVATIONS, THE
TREND WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS AS THE SEPARATION
DISTANCE BETWEEN THE FRONT AND POST-FRONTAL LIFT FROM THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH GROWS. MADE NOTABLE CHANGES TO THE POP/WX GRIDS TO TAKE THE
DELAY INTO ACCOUNT. SHOWERS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD AND
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT (GENERALLY AROUND ONE-TENTH INCH).
SLIGHTLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE TRAILING THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO TRACKS FROM VA TO THE
DELMARVA, LEADING TO AN ENHANCEMENT OF PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
PART OF THE CWA.

MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOW 60S IN NORTHEASTERN PA/NW NJ TO AROUND
70F NEAR THE COAST. THESE HIGHS WILL OCCUR ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT BEFORE TEMPS FALL BEHIND THE FRONT WHEN THE SHOWERS ARRIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT. THE
BACK EDGE OF THE LINGERING SHOWERS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY SHOULD BE
SHIFTING THRU THE I-95 CORRIDOR EARLY THIS EVENING AND OFF THE NJ/DE
COAST AROUND MIDNIGHT.

WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT COLDER AND
EVENTUALLY DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION. SKIES WILL CLEAR NOT TOO LONG
AFTER PRECIP ENDS- DURING THE EVENING ACROSS EASTERN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ AND OVERNIGHT FOR COASTAL AREAS. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH FOR A 5-10 MPH WIND TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY WITH CAA AIDING IN A MIXED NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER.
THEREFORE, WENT A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE A MAV/MET BLEND FOR MIN
TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE A DECLINE IN THE WEATHER FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE
GREAT LAKES REGION, AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS AND STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTH. WE
DO NOT EXPECT MUCH, IF ANY PRECIPITATION DURING THE DAY AS THE
PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE SYSTEM TO OUR WEST SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST UNDERNEATH THE MID/UPPER LOW/TROUGH. AS WE GO INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT, THE MID/UPPER LOW WILL SWING TO OUR SOUTH, WHILE THE
SURFACE LOW WILL BEGIN GETTING ABSORBED BY THE COASTAL LOW. THIS
WILL ALLOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA AS
THE MAJORITY OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING. IT LOOKS LIKE
ANY PRECIPITATION THAT STARTS OUT FRIDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE MOSTLY A
COLD RAIN AS MODELS NOW KEEP 925/850 MB TEMPS ABOVE FREEZING,
ALTHOUGH IT IS STILL POSSIBLE FOR A MIXTURE ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHERN AREAS.

THE MID/UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST SATURDAY, WHICH WILL ALLOW THE SURFACE LOW TO STRENGTHEN AND
WRAP UP MORE. THE GFS KEEPS THE PRECIP CLOSE TO THE SURFACE AND
MID-LEVEL LOW AND MOSTLY OFFSHORE, BUT THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN KEEP
PRECIP ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND EXTEND IT PRETTY FAR TO OUR
NORTHWEST, SO WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY
SATURDAY. THE MODELS DO SHOW THE PRECIP MOVING TO OUR NORTHEAST
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY AS THE SURFACE AND MID/UPPER LOW PULL TO OUR
NORTHEAST, SO WE`LL HAVE DECREASING POPS OVERNIGHT. THE MODELS
KEEP THE SUB-FREEZING TEMPERATURES OUT OF THE AREA UNTIL
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY, SO THE BEST CHANCE FOR A MIX OR COMPLETE
CHANGE OVER TO SNOW WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING IF
THERE IS STILL ANY REMAINING PRECIPITATION, MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.

WINDS WILL INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. WINDS LOOK TO GUST BETWEEN 30-40 MPH, WITH
HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE COAST.

SUNDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY, BUT COLD AND BLUSTERY AS A STIFF
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED AS THE LOW PRESSURE STRENGTHENS TO OUR
NORTHEAST AND HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. WINDS
COULD CONTINUE TO GUST 30-40 MPH ACROSS THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH MONDAY AND NOSE ITS
WAY INTO OUR AREA. THIS WILL PROVIDE FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL.

ON TUESDAY, THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST, WHILE A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE NEXT
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST FOR TUESDAY IS FOR
DRY WEATHER WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES, ALTHOUGH IF THE WARM FRONT
PASSES CLOSE ENOUGH, A FEW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY WILL BE PREDOMINATELY VFR TODAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTN WITH HEAVIER SHRA BEHIND A
COLD FRONT BUT CONFIDENCE VERY LOW IN THIS HAPPENING. DELAYED
ARRIVAL OF SHRA WITH THE 06Z TAFS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS TAF ISSUANCES
BY ABOUT 6 HOURS. CLEARING WILL OCCUR FROM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
00Z-06Z. LIGHT SW WINDS EARLY THIS MRNG BECOME WESTERLY THIS AFTN
AND EVENTUALLY NW TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT...LOWER END VFR OR UPPER END MVFR WITH
CIGS 2,500-3,500 EXPECTED. LOWER VSBYS POSSIBLE WITH RAIN SHOWERS.
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY. GUSTY NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
25-30 KNOTS, POSSIBLY HIGHER NEAR THE COAST.

SUNDAY...VFR. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS 25-30 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SWLY WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KT WITH ISOLATED 20 KT GUSTS BEING
OBSERVED AT THE OFFSHORE BUOYS. LATEST BUOY REPORTS SHOW WAVES EVER
SO GRADUALLY INCREASING TO AROUND 4 FT AS OF 07Z. WILL CONTINUE THE
SCA THAT IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THRU 2 PM TODAY FOR
NOW. HOWEVER, IF WINDS/WAVES DO NOT INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
THEN SCA WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS A SEAS WILL BE INCREASING LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...INCREASING WINDS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. GALE FORCE WINDS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

SUNDAY...GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY, BEFORE DIMINISHING TO
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS LATE IN THE DAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 290135
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND THEN WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL START TO
IMPACT OUR REGION, ONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE. THESE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND OUT OVER
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH WILL
APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE WEST.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND IT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA, MARYLAND
AND VIRGINIA AROUND DAYBREAK.

A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A LIGHT WIND, FAVORING THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST IF ANY DIRECTION AT ALL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR,
RANGING MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR
AREA AND OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BAND OF SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED TO TRAIL THE BOUNDARY AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE MAINLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 6 TO 12 MPH IN THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
VEER TO THE WEST NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OFFSHORE TO START THE
PERIOD WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN CLEARING CONDITIONS, PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS STILL ALONG THE COAST EARLY. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS
AND THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
DRY. GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW TILL THE HIGH PASSES BY LATE FRIDAY.
EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING STILL IN THE LOW TO MID
40`S WITH NORTHWEST FLOW THIS FORECAST DOES UNDERCUT MAV/MET BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR HIGHS THURSDAY (MID-UPPER 50`S). FOR FRIDAY,
USING THE 925 MB TEMPS WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50`S AT PHL
ON FRI, THOUGH THINKING WITH CLOUDS AND A LOWER SUN ANGLE THIS
SHOULD BE KNOCKED BACK TILL ABOUT THE MID 50`S. COOLER NW BOTH
DAYS.

 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:

* STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM SATURDAY*

STORM OVERVIEW: TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL BE MOVING TOWARD
THE REGION TO START OFF THIS PERIOD. ONE NEAR DETROIT AND THE
OTHER OFF HATTERAS. AN UNDERSTATEMENT WOULD BE THAT THE MODELS AND
THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON THE
OUTCOME. MANY OF THE KEY PLAYERS INVOLVED ARE STILL NOT FIRMLY IN
THE UPPER AIR NETWORK TO WHICH MORE SAMPLED DATA WILL BECOME
AVAILABLE. THIS MAY REDUCE SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THE MODEL SPREAD FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF, CMC, UKMET AND VARIOUS
ENSEMBLE PACKAGES SHOW TWO MAIN OUTCOMES. THE FIRST IS FOR A
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH JUST SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE
COMING EAST THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK BUT
POTENT COLD SHOT WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LOWS WELL TO OUR
EAST AND DISORGANIZED. THIS OUTCOME HAS BEEN GAINING TRACTION
TODAY WITH MOST DAY OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS. POSSIBILITY NUMBER TWO
INVOLVES MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LOW OFFSHORE AND THE LOW
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES (00Z ECMWF). THIS WOULD RESULT
IN A RAINER AND COOLER DAY WITH THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW DUE TO DYNAMICAL COOLING. EITHER WAY FRIDAY NIGHT
LOOKS DRY STILL WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS. SATURDAY
WILL FEATURE RAIN SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE(S) ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE
MIXED AT TIMES AS WELL WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON THE EXACT OUTCOME.
BY SUNDAY WRAP- AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL END WITH CLEARING BUT
STILL WINDY AND COOL.

THE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: WITH A INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FORTUNATELY
WITH PRECIPITATION AND A STABLE ENVIRONMENT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR MIXING. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE AT ABOUT
900-925 MB LOOK TO BE AROUND 50 MPH SO EVEN ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS OFFSHORE MAY STRENGTHEN SOME SATURDAY
NIGHT (SEE MARINE).

SUNDAY: THE LOW PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE AWAY REDUCING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE 900 MB WINDS SHOULD RELAX. HOWEVER A
STEEPER LAPSE RATE WILL BE PRESENT ALLOWING FOR MIXING. STILL
EXPECTING WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

WINDS WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM(S).
STRONGER LOW MEANS A BIGGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS.
THE FORECASTED WINDS REFLECT A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE STRONGER 00Z
ECMWF FROM THIS EVENING AND THE MORE STRUNG OUT AND WEAKER 12Z
GFS.

PRECIPITATION TYPE

THIS WILL HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE OVERALL MAKEUP OF THIS STORM.
OPTION ONE PRESENTED IN THE OVERVIEW SECTION WOULD MEAN RAIN
SHOWERS TO SCATTERED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN.
OPTION TWO WITH MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LOWS IS MORE
INTERESTING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZING MORE TO OUR SOUTH
WOULD DRAW MORE WARM AIR NORTHEAST (00Z ECMWF) AND KEEP THINGS ALL
RAIN TILL PERHAPS WRAP-AROUND STUFF SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE LOW
PRESSURE INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE OFF OUR COASTLINE THEN LESS WARM
AIR WOULD BE PULLED IN AND DYNAMIC COOLING MAY REALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR CAA CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW
NW OF PHL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW
0C AT 925 AND 850 MB (06Z GFS). AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MAY
DEVELOP AS WELL WHICH COULD LINGER STEADIER PRECIPITATION INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL, USUALLY HARD TO PIN THESE DOWN. IN THE
UNLIKELY EVENT A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF SNOW WERE TO OCCUR RATIOS
WOULD BE 5:1 IF NOT LOWER DUE TO VERY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.

RIGHT NOW OPTION ONE APPEARS TO BE GAINING MORE TRACTION AND THAT
IS THE DIRECTION IN WHICH THIS FORECAST WILL GO, FOR BETTER OR
WORSE. THIS WOULD MINIMIZE SNOW CHANCES.

BOTTOM LINE
- STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
PERIODS OF COLD RAIN WITH THE THREAT OF VERY LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT.

- OF NOTE WHEN COMPARED TO THE LATE OCTOBER SNOWFALL IN 2011,
THIS SYNOPTIC SET-UP HAS CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES. THAT EVENT HAD
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF COLD AND DRY AIR ENTRAINED FROM A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH ALLOWED FOR DYNAMICAL AND EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING. THIS SET-UP IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE EITHER OF THESE ATTM.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY: COOLER AND DRY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW GIVING WAY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. DID
UNDERCUT MEX AND OTHER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE DUE TO THE NORTHWEST
FLOW FOR MONDAY. ON TUESDAY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY DID GO ABOVE THE
MODEL CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH SOME
MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE
POTENTIAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE FORECAST TO LAST UNTIL ABOUT
1300Z OR 1400Z, THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY
ACROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF IMPACT ON CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY VALUES.

A LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT MAY FAVOR THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST IN SPOTS.
THE WIND SHOULD START FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
AROUND 4 TO 8 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE WIND DIRECTION
VEERING TOWARD THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR WITH WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS.

SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
DAY WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN, OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. NORTHWEST WIND INCREASING FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH NON ACCUMULATING SNOW
FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.

SUNDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS
FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 200 PM ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE
MARGINAL. THE STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS NEAR 5
FEET ON OUR OUTER WATERS. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA ON DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS WITH
BUILDING SEAS AND INCREASING WINDS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: SCA WINDS LIKELY DEVELOPING EARLY
SATURDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. GALE
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
LINGERING SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/IOVINO
MARINE...GAINES/IOVINO







000
FXUS61 KPHI 290135
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST INTO THE REGION
OVERNIGHT AND THEN WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY. BY FRIDAY TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL START TO
IMPACT OUR REGION, ONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER OFF THE
CAROLINA COASTLINE. THESE AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COASTLINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE REGION FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND OUT OVER
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH WILL
APPROACH SLOWLY FROM THE WEST.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
THE UPPER OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS EVENING. THE BOUNDARY WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS EASTWARD AND IT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA, MARYLAND
AND VIRGINIA AROUND DAYBREAK.

A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A LIGHT WIND, FAVORING THE SOUTH AND
SOUTHWEST IF ANY DIRECTION AT ALL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE
AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR,
RANGING MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR
AREA AND OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BAND OF SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED TO TRAIL THE BOUNDARY AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE MAINLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 6 TO 12 MPH IN THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
VEER TO THE WEST NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OFFSHORE TO START THE
PERIOD WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN CLEARING CONDITIONS, PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS STILL ALONG THE COAST EARLY. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS
AND THE MAV/MET GUIDANCE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.
DRY. GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW TILL THE HIGH PASSES BY LATE FRIDAY.
EVEN WITH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING STILL IN THE LOW TO MID
40`S WITH NORTHWEST FLOW THIS FORECAST DOES UNDERCUT MAV/MET BY A
COUPLE OF DEGREES FOR HIGHS THURSDAY (MID-UPPER 50`S). FOR FRIDAY,
USING THE 925 MB TEMPS WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50`S AT PHL
ON FRI, THOUGH THINKING WITH CLOUDS AND A LOWER SUN ANGLE THIS
SHOULD BE KNOCKED BACK TILL ABOUT THE MID 50`S. COOLER NW BOTH
DAYS.

 FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:

* STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM SATURDAY*

STORM OVERVIEW: TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL BE MOVING TOWARD
THE REGION TO START OFF THIS PERIOD. ONE NEAR DETROIT AND THE
OTHER OFF HATTERAS. AN UNDERSTATEMENT WOULD BE THAT THE MODELS AND
THE RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON THE
OUTCOME. MANY OF THE KEY PLAYERS INVOLVED ARE STILL NOT FIRMLY IN
THE UPPER AIR NETWORK TO WHICH MORE SAMPLED DATA WILL BECOME
AVAILABLE. THIS MAY REDUCE SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR
TWO. THE MODEL SPREAD FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF, CMC, UKMET AND VARIOUS
ENSEMBLE PACKAGES SHOW TWO MAIN OUTCOMES. THE FIRST IS FOR A
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH JUST SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE
COMING EAST THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK BUT
POTENT COLD SHOT WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LOWS WELL TO OUR
EAST AND DISORGANIZED. THIS OUTCOME HAS BEEN GAINING TRACTION
TODAY WITH MOST DAY OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS. POSSIBILITY NUMBER TWO
INVOLVES MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LOW OFFSHORE AND THE LOW
MOVING EAST OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES (00Z ECMWF). THIS WOULD RESULT
IN A RAINER AND COOLER DAY WITH THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN
CHANGING TO SNOW DUE TO DYNAMICAL COOLING. EITHER WAY FRIDAY NIGHT
LOOKS DRY STILL WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS. SATURDAY
WILL FEATURE RAIN SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE(S) ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE
MIXED AT TIMES AS WELL WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON THE EXACT OUTCOME.
BY SUNDAY WRAP- AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL END WITH CLEARING BUT
STILL WINDY AND COOL.

THE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT: WITH A INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FORTUNATELY
WITH PRECIPITATION AND A STABLE ENVIRONMENT IT DOES NOT APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR MIXING. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP
TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE AT ABOUT
900-925 MB LOOK TO BE AROUND 50 MPH SO EVEN ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS
CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. WINDS OFFSHORE MAY STRENGTHEN SOME SATURDAY
NIGHT (SEE MARINE).

SUNDAY: THE LOW PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE AWAY REDUCING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE 900 MB WINDS SHOULD RELAX. HOWEVER A
STEEPER LAPSE RATE WILL BE PRESENT ALLOWING FOR MIXING. STILL
EXPECTING WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

WINDS WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM(S).
STRONGER LOW MEANS A BIGGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS.
THE FORECASTED WINDS REFLECT A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE STRONGER 00Z
ECMWF FROM THIS EVENING AND THE MORE STRUNG OUT AND WEAKER 12Z
GFS.

PRECIPITATION TYPE

THIS WILL HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE OVERALL MAKEUP OF THIS STORM.
OPTION ONE PRESENTED IN THE OVERVIEW SECTION WOULD MEAN RAIN
SHOWERS TO SCATTERED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN.
OPTION TWO WITH MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LOWS IS MORE
INTERESTING. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZING MORE TO OUR SOUTH
WOULD DRAW MORE WARM AIR NORTHEAST (00Z ECMWF) AND KEEP THINGS ALL
RAIN TILL PERHAPS WRAP-AROUND STUFF SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE LOW
PRESSURE INTERACTIONS TAKE PLACE OFF OUR COASTLINE THEN LESS WARM
AIR WOULD BE PULLED IN AND DYNAMIC COOLING MAY REALLY KEEP
TEMPERATURES DOWN SATURDAY AND ALLOW FOR CAA CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW
NW OF PHL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW
0C AT 925 AND 850 MB (06Z GFS). AN INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MAY
DEVELOP AS WELL WHICH COULD LINGER STEADIER PRECIPITATION INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL, USUALLY HARD TO PIN THESE DOWN. IN THE
UNLIKELY EVENT A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF SNOW WERE TO OCCUR RATIOS
WOULD BE 5:1 IF NOT LOWER DUE TO VERY WARM GROUND TEMPERATURES AND
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.

RIGHT NOW OPTION ONE APPEARS TO BE GAINING MORE TRACTION AND THAT
IS THE DIRECTION IN WHICH THIS FORECAST WILL GO, FOR BETTER OR
WORSE. THIS WOULD MINIMIZE SNOW CHANCES.

BOTTOM LINE
- STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
PERIODS OF COLD RAIN WITH THE THREAT OF VERY LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT.

- OF NOTE WHEN COMPARED TO THE LATE OCTOBER SNOWFALL IN 2011,
THIS SYNOPTIC SET-UP HAS CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES. THAT EVENT HAD
A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF COLD AND DRY AIR ENTRAINED FROM A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH ALLOWED FOR DYNAMICAL AND EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING. THIS SET-UP IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE EITHER OF THESE ATTM.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY: COOLER AND DRY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW GIVING WAY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH. DID
UNDERCUT MEX AND OTHER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE DUE TO THE NORTHWEST
FLOW FOR MONDAY. ON TUESDAY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY DID GO ABOVE THE
MODEL CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT WITH SOME
MVFR VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK. THE
POTENTIAL VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE FORECAST TO LAST UNTIL ABOUT
1300Z OR 1400Z, THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

A BAND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO WORK ITS WAY SLOWLY
ACROSS OUR REGION FROM WEST TO EAST FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
HAVE A GREAT DEAL OF IMPACT ON CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY VALUES.

A LIGHT WIND OVERNIGHT MAY FAVOR THE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST IN SPOTS.
THE WIND SHOULD START FROM THE SOUTHWEST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING
AROUND 4 TO 8 KNOTS. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS OUR
REGION FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THE WIND DIRECTION
VEERING TOWARD THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR WITH WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS.

SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE
DAY WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN, OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT. NORTHWEST WIND INCREASING FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH NON ACCUMULATING SNOW
FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.

SUNDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS
FROM MIDNIGHT UNTIL 200 PM ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE
MARGINAL. THE STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS NEAR 5
FEET ON OUR OUTER WATERS. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS
ARE ANTICIPATED.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA ON DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS WITH
BUILDING SEAS AND INCREASING WINDS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: SCA WINDS LIKELY DEVELOPING EARLY
SATURDAY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. GALE
WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY.
LINGERING SCA GUSTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS ABOVE SCA
CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/IOVINO
MARINE...GAINES/IOVINO







000
FXUS61 KPHI 281951
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT
AND THEN WILL MOVE OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO THE REGION FROM THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.
BY FRIDAY TWO LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL START TO IMPACT OUR REGION, ONE
OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND ANOTHER OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. THESE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY THE STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE MOVING
NORTHEAST OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COASTLINE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
BACK INTO THE REGION FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD AND OUT OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A TROUGH WILL APPROACH
SLOWLY FROM THE WEST.

A SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY AT MID AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO
PROGRESS EASTWARD AND IT IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 81 CORRIDOR THROUGH PENNSYLVANIA, MARYLAND AND VIRGINIA
AROUND DAYBREAK.

A BAND OF RAIN SHOWERS ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING A LIGHT WIND, FAVORING THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST
IF ANY DIRECTION AT ALL. CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AND MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MILD FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR, RANGING
MAINLY IN THE 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF OUR
AREA AND OFF THE COAST ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE BAND OF SHOWERS
IS EXPECTED TO TRAIL THE BOUNDARY AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
SHOULD BE MAINLY LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 6 TO 12 MPH IN THE MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
VEER TO THE WEST NORTHWEST FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABOUT 5 TO 7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE OFFSHORE TO START THE
PERIOD WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN CLEARING CONDITIONS, PERHAPS A FEW
SHOWERS STILL ALONG THE COAST EARLY. WINDS SHIFTING TO NORTHWEST BEHIND
THE FRONT. TEMPERATURES A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE 12Z GFS AND THE
MAV/MET GUIDANCE.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY: HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. DRY.
GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW TILL THE HIGH PASSES BY LATE FRIDAY. EVEN
WITH TEMPERATURES THURSDAY MORNING STILL IN THE LOW TO MID 40`S WITH
NORTHWEST FLOW THIS FORECAST DOES UNDERCUT MAV/MET BY A COUPLE OF
DEGREES FOR HIGHS THURSDAY (MID-UPPER 50`S). FOR FRIDAY, USING
THE 925 MB TEMPS WOULD YIELD HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50`S AT PHL ON
FRI, THOUGH THINKING WITH CLOUDS AND A LOWER SUN ANGLE THIS SHOULD
BE KNOCKED BACK TILL ABOUT THE MID 50`S. COOLER NW BOTH DAYS.

FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT:

* STRONG WINDS AND POSSIBLE COASTAL STORM SATURDAY*

STORM OVERVIEW: TWO LOW PRESSURE CENTERS WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE
REGION TO START OFF THIS PERIOD. ONE NEAR DETROIT AND THE OTHER OFF
HATTERAS. AN UNDERSTATEMENT WOULD BE THAT THE MODELS AND THE
RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLES HAVE BEEN GOING BACK AND FORTH ON THE OUTCOME.
MANY OF THE KEY PLAYERS INVOLVED ARE STILL NOT FIRMLY IN THE UPPER
AIR NETWORK TO WHICH MORE SAMPLED DATA WILL BECOME AVAILABLE. THIS
MAY REDUCE SOME UNCERTAINTY OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THE MODEL
SPREAD FROM THE GEFS, ECMWF, CMC, UKMET AND VARIOUS ENSEMBLE
PACKAGES SHOW TWO MAIN OUTCOMES. THE FIRST IS FOR A FRONTAL
PASSAGE WITH JUST SOME RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE NORTHERN WAVE COMING
EAST THROUGH THE REGION ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY A QUICK BUT POTENT
COLD SHOT WITH INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LOWS WELL TO OUR EAST AND
DISORGANIZED. THIS OUTCOME HAS BEEN GAINING TRACTION TODAY WITH
MOST DAY OPERATIONAL MODEL RUNS. POSSIBILITY NUMBER TWO INVOLVES
MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LOW OFFSHORE AND THE LOW MOVING EAST
OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES (00Z ECMWF). THIS WOULD RESULT IN A RAINER
AND COOLER DAY WITH THE OUTSIDE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN CHANGING TO
SNOW DUE TO DYNAMICAL COOLING. EITHER WAY FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS DRY
STILL WITH INCREASING CLOUDS AND LIGHT WINDS. SATURDAY WILL
FEATURE RAIN SHOWERS AND WINDY CONDITIONS AS THE LOW PRESSURE(S)
ORGANIZE AND STRENGTHEN. THE PRECIPITATION MAY BE MIXED AT TIMES AS
WELL WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON THE EXACT OUTCOME. BY SUNDAY WRAP-
AROUND PRECIPITATION WILL END WITH CLEARING BUT STILL WINDY AND
COOL.

THE WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT:  WITH A INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY. FORTUNATELY WITH
PRECIPITATION AND A STABLE ENVIRONMENT IT DOES NOT APPEAR FAVORABLE
FOR MIXING. SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH
ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE AT ABOUT 900-925 MB LOOK TO
BE AROUND 50 MPH SO EVEN ISOLATED HIGHER GUSTS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT.
WINDS OFFSHORE MAY STRENGTHEN SOME SATURDAY NIGHT (SEE MARINE).

SUNDAY: THE LOW PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE AWAY REDUCING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT. THE 900 MB WINDS SHOULD RELAX. HOWEVER A STEEPER
LAPSE RATE WILL BE PRESENT ALLOWING FOR MIXING. STILL EXPECTING
WINDS FROM 15-20 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.

WINDS WILL DEPEND ON THE ACTUAL EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM(S).
STRONGER LOW MEANS A BIGGER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONGER WINDS.
THE FORECASTED WINDS REFLECT A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE STRONGER 00Z ECMWF
FROM THIS EVENING AND THE MORE STRUNG OUT AND WEAKER 12Z GFS.

PRECIPITATION TYPE

THIS WILL HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE OVERALL MAKEUP OF THIS STORM.
OPTION ONE PRESENTED IN THE OVERVIEW SECTION WOULD MEAN RAIN SHOWERS
TO SCATTERED FLURRIES/SPRINKLES AS THE COLD AIR MOVES IN. OPTION TWO
WITH MORE INTERACTION BETWEEN THE LOWS IS MORE INTERESTING. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZING MORE TO OUR SOUTH WOULD DRAW MORE WARM
AIR NORTHEAST (00Z ECMWF) AND KEEP THINGS ALL RAIN TILL PERHAPS
WRAP-AROUND STUFF SATURDAY NIGHT. IF THE LOW PRESSURE INTERACTIONS
TAKE PLACE OFF OUR COASTLINE THEN LESS WARM AIR WOULD BE PULLED IN
AND DYNAMIC COOLING MAY REALLY KEEP TEMPERATURES DOWN SATURDAY AND
ALLOW FOR CAA CHANGING RAIN TO SNOW NW OF PHL SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES COOL BELOW 0C AT 925 AND 850 MB (06Z GFS). AN
INVERTED TROUGH FEATURE MAY DEVELOP AS WELL WHICH COULD LINGER
STEADIER PRECIPITATION INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS WELL, USUALLY HARD TO
PIN THESE DOWN. IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT A SUSTAINED PERIOD OF SNOW WERE TO
OCCUR RATIOS WOULD BE 5:1 IF NOT LOWER DUE TO VERY WARM GROUND
TEMPERATURES AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING.

RIGHT NOW OPTION ONE APPEARS TO BE GAINING MORE TRACTION AND THAT IS
THE DIRECTION IN WHICH THIS FORECAST WILL GO, FOR BETTER OR WORSE.
THIS WOULD MINIMIZE SNOW CHANCES.

BOTTOM LINE
- STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
PERIODS OF COLD RAIN WITH THE THREAT OF VERY LIGHT MIXED
PRECIPITATION SATURDAY NIGHT.

- OF NOTE WHEN COMPARED TO THE LATE OCTOBER SNOWFALL IN 2011, THIS
SYNOPTIC SET-UP HAS CONSIDERABLE DIFFERENCES. THAT EVENT HAD A
CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF COLD AND DRY AIR ENTRAINED FROM A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH ALLOWED FOR DYNAMICAL AND EVAPORATIONAL
COOLING. THIS SET-UP IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE EITHER OF THESE ATTM.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY: COOLER AND DRY WITH NORTHWEST FLOW GIVING WAY
TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AS THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH.  DID
UNDERCUT MEX AND OTHER STATISTICAL GUIDANCE DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW
FOR MONDAY. ON TUESDAY WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY  DID GO ABOVE THE
MODEL CONSENSUS ON TEMPERATURES.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS VFR THRU THIS EVENING, UNCERTAIN ABOUT MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY. WE ADDED LLWS FOR KABE AND KRDG.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON VFR CIRRUS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
AVERAGING CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS. A SLIGHT BACKING OF THE WIND DIRECTION
TOWARD EVENING.

THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED MAINLY CIRRUS BASED VFR
CIGS. VERY LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH IF NOT CALM. A LOW LEVEL JET
IS PREDICTED TO PASS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.
SINCE THE COMBINATION OF MOST LIKELY CALM WINDS AND LOCATION OF
THE LLJ, WE DID ADD A LLWS PERIOD AT KABE AND KRDG AND WILL
MONITOR FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS.

LATE TONIGHT WE DID BRING MOST TERMINALS DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS
MAINLY DUE TO FOG AND ALSO SOME STRATUS AND STRATOCU AND SOME OF
THE MORE INLAND TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE THOUGH IS NOT HIGH AS IT
DEPENDS UPON HOW THICK THE CIRRUS WILL BE.

ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS PREDICTED TO RETURN AS A COLD
FRONT STARTS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE MORE INLAND TERMINALS WITH THEM
POSSIBLY REACHING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AIRPORTS BY THE END
OF THE TAF FCST PERIOD. WITH THE 30HR TAF AT KPHL WE DO SHOW A
WINDOW OF MAINLY VFR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR WITH WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS.

SATURDAY: MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE DAY
WITH CLOUDS AND RAIN, OCCASIONAL IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT. NORTHWEST WIND INCREASING FROM 10 TO 20 KNOTS IN THE
AFTERNOON WITH HIGHER GUSTS UP TO 30 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT: MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS IN
LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS, POSSIBLY MIXED WITH NON ACCUMULATING SNOW
FLURRIES. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KNOTS.

SUNDAY: VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS.


&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL MAINTAIN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS FROM
MIDNIGHT UNTIL 200 PM ON WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL BE MARGINAL. THE
STEADY SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW MAY BUILD SEAS NEAR 5 FEET ON OUR
OUTER WATERS. OCCASIONAL WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE ANTICIPATED.

CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA ON DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT: SUB SCA SEAS AND WINDS WITH
BUILDING SEAS AND INCREASING WINDS LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.


SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: SCA WINDS LIKELY DEVELOPING EARLY SATURDAY
WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST. GALE WIND GUSTS
POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. LINGERING SCA
GUSTS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT. SEAS ABOVE SCA CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI
MARINE...GAINES/IOVINO







000
FXUS61 KPHI 281659
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1259 PM EDT TUE OCT 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD IN FOR THURSDAY BEFORE AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE MOVES OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND COMBINES WITH
A DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFFSHORE OF THE MID ATLANTIC. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THICKER CIRRUS THIS MORNING HAS SLOWED THE MIXING AND RISE IN
TEMPERATURES IN PA AND NJ. MEANWHILE LOWER DELMARVA ALREADY IN THE
LOWER 70S. UPSTREAM CIRRUS DOES NOT LOOK AS THICK AND MODELS
SOUNDINGS ARE FORECASTING LESS MOISTURE. SO WE ARE KEEPING
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO MAX TEMP PROJECTIONS, JUST MAKING IT LATER IN
THE AFTERNOON. IN DELMARVA, WITH LESS CIRRUS ISSUES TEMPERATURES
ARE ALREADY IN THE LOWER 70S WITH PLENTY OF LOWER TO MID 70S IN
PLACES FARTHER SOUTHWEST. HERE WE ARE FEELING MORE CONFIDENT ABOUT
MAX TEMPS. OTHER THAN ADJUSTMENTS ALREADY MADE TO SKY GRIDS, NO
OTHER BIG CHANGES TO WIND OR DEW POINT FORECASTS.

HIGH PRESSURE HAS MOVED OFF THE SOUTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A SFC LOW WAS LOCATED OVER EXTREME
NORTHEAST LAKE SUPERIOR WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS.

THERE ISN`T MUCH EVIDENCE OF A WARM FRONT EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS
ON THE LATEST SFC ANALYSIS DESPITE THE SIGNIFICANT WAA ALOFT. HIGH
CLOUDS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE STREAMING IN FROM THE
WEST ARE EXPECTED TO THIN OUT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION LATER
THIS MORNING AS THE BULK OF THE UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE SHIFTS
DOWNSTREAM INTO THE NORTHEAST.

AHEAD OF THE MIDWEST COLD FRONT, THE CORE OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL
BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER MID-ATLANTIC STATES THIS AFTERNOON. MAJORITY
OF MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS 925 MB AND 850 MB TEMPS FOR PHL INCREASING
TO AROUND 21C AND 17C RESPECTIVELY, WHICH IS A +2 SD OCCURRENCE FOR
LATE OCTOBER. ASSUMING FULL MIXING DOWN FROM THE 925 MB WARM NOSE,
TEMPS WOULD REACH THE LOWER TO MID 80S. MAX TEMP FORECAST IS NOT
QUITE THAT WARM (SINCE FULL MIXING NOT EXPECTED OWING TO THE LOW SUN
ANGLE) BUT IS SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE STAT GUIDANCE. FORECAST HIGHS IN
LOW 80S IN THE DELMARVA AND MID TO UPPER 70S ELSEWHERE MATCHES UP
WELL WITH UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS YESTERDAY IN THE MIDWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES TONIGHT
AND TOWARDS JAMES BAY. THE COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE APPALACHIANS THIS EVENING AND SHOULD BE ON THE FRONT
DOOR STEP OF OUR FAR WESTERN ZONES IN EASTERN PA BY DAYBREAK. THE
TREND OF RECENT GUIDANCE WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE
FRONT EVER SO SLIGHTLY. FOLLOWED THIS TREND WITH POPS OVERNIGHT,
KEEPING ANY MENTION OF SHOWERS WEST OF THE FALL LINE. POPS FOLLOW
CLOSE SUITE TO THE 21Z/03Z SREF RUNS.

WENT ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR MIN TEMP AS SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IN
PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR AND INCREASING CLOUD COVER LATE SHOULD LIMIT
RADIATIONAL COOLING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING INTO THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AND PROGRESS ITS WAY THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY
AND INTO THE EVENING. POPS WILL INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE DAY AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE PRECIP OCCURRING MOSTLY FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THERE IS SOME DIFFERENCES IN QPF AMOUNTS, BUT
OVERALL DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN, GENERALLY
ONE-TENTH TO ONE-QUARTER OF AN INCH OR LESS. THE FRONT MOVES
OFFSHORE BY LATE IN THE DAY, AND THE MAIN SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH
OVERNIGHT. PRECIP CHANCES WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AND SHOULD BE ALL OUT OF THE AREA BY
OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. DRY WEATHER AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED BEFORE A CHANGE FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

ON FRIDAY, AND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, AND APPROACHING THE AREA, WHILE A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
AND STRENGTHENS TO OUR SOUTHEAST. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION
DURING THE DAY AS THE PRECIPITATION TIED TO THE APPROACHING LOW TO
THE NORTHWEST SHOULD STILL BE TO OUR NORTHWEST. HOWEVER, AS WE GO
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, THE LOW TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN
GETTING ABSORBED BY THE COASTAL LOW. AT THE SAME TIME, THE MID/UPPER
TROUGH WILL BE DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA AS WELL AND WILL
ALLOW PRECIPITATION TO FILL IN ACROSS THE AREA. THE MID/UPPER TROUGH
WILL SLOWLY SWING ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH SATURDAY, SO THERE COULD
STILL BE SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY SATURDAY. THERE IS
SOME COLD AIR ASSOCIATED WITH THE MID/UPPER TROUGH SWINGING ACROSS
THE AREA WITH SUB-ZERO 925/850MB TEMPERATURES LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
THROUGH SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
SOME SNOW TO MIX WITH RAIN, OR EVEN A COMPLETE CHANCE OVER ACROSS
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY BETWEEN THE COASTAL LOW AND HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO APPROACH
ADVISORY LEVELS, ESPECIALLY FOR COASTAL AREAS, SO WE WILL KEEP A
MENTION IN THE HWO.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE WEST. THE 00Z
ECMWF IS SLOWER TO MOVE THE COASTAL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST, WHICH
WOULD KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS SLOW TO SUBSIDE AND A CHANCE OF
PRECIP FOR NORTHEASTERN AREAS. HOWEVER, THE THOUGHT IS THIS MAY BE
TO SLOW, SO WE WEAKEN WINDS AND KEEP THE FORECAST DRY SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, ALTHOUGH IT MAY STILL BE A BIT BREEZY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS VFR THRU THIS EVENING, UNCERTAIN ABOUT MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS TOWARD WEDNESDAY MORNING AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS LATER
WEDNESDAY. WE ADDED LLWS FOR KABE AND KRDG.

FOR THIS AFTERNOON VFR CIRRUS WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
AVERAGING CLOSE TO 10 KNOTS. A SLIGHT BACKING OF THE WIND DIRECTION
TOWARD EVENING.

THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED MAINLY CIRRUS BASED VFR
CIGS. VERY LIGHT WINDS FROM THE SOUTH IF NOT CALM. A LOW LEVEL JET
IS PREDICTED TO PASS ACROSS OUR NORTHWEST TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS.
SINCE THE COMBINATION OF MOST LIKELY CALM WINDS AND LOCATION OF
THE LLJ, WE DID ADD A LLWS PERIOD AT KABE AND KRDG AND WILL
MONITOR FOR THE REST OF THE TERMINALS.

LATE TONIGHT WE DID BRING MOST TERMINALS DOWN TO MVFR CONDITIONS
MAINLY DUE TO FOG AND ALSO SOME STRATUS AND STRATOCU AND SOME OF
THE MORE INLAND TERMINALS. CONFIDENCE THOUGH IS NOT HIGH AS IT
DEPENDS UPON HOW THICK THE CIRRUS WILL BE.

ON WEDNESDAY MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS PREDICTED TO RETURN AS A COLD
FRONT STARTS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME
WEST. SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AT THE MORE INLAND TERMINALS WITH THEM
POSSIBLY REACHING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AIRPORTS BY THE END
OF THE TAF FCST PERIOD. WITH THE 30HR TAF AT KPHL WE DO SHOW A
WINDOW OF MAINLY VFR SHOWERS DURING THE AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...GENERALLY VFR, WITH MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST
PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY. STRONG, GUSTY WINDS
SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
SWLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN TODAY TO 10-20 KT. THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
A BIT MORE TONIGHT. WARM AIR ATOP THE COOLER OCEAN WATERS DO NOT
PROVIDE A PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE MIXING SETUP BUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS
TO 25 KT ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE COASTAL WATERS LATE. USING WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE, SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 4-5 FT OVERNIGHT. A SCA WAS ISSUED
FOR THE ATLANTIC ZONES STARTING AT MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH MIDDAY
WEDNESDAY, THEN SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...INCREASING WINDS OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW STRENGTHENS. AT LEAST SMALL
CRAFT CONDITIONS EXPECTED, WITH GALE FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 2 PM EDT
     WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON







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