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000
FXUS61 KPHI 211919
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
319 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN
THE WEEK. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PARK OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE COAST...WELL EAST OF OUR
WATERS. THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF
THINNING ACROSS NJ/ERN DEL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WRN PARTS OF THE
CWA ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AS OF THE MID-AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO THE NE OVERNIGHT WHILE A CLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE WEAKENING OF THE
DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE MOSTLY JUST
KEPT THE SMALL CHC OR SLGT CHC POP FOR THE NRN/WRN AREAS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WRLY/NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MORNING. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW.MID 50S
NORTH/WEST TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SOUTH/EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A PLEASANT FALL-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AS
COOL AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. A GUSTY W/NW
WIND WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE NRN MOST
AREAS ONLY HAVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S (MOUNT POCONO) TO THE MID
60S. DEW POINTS MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD
INTO MID-ATLANTIC REGION STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE,
A SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS FORECAST TO LAG BEHIND THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. A CAA REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER OUR
REGION DURING THIS TIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT MAY DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S IN THE POCONOS BUT THE NW WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FROST FROM FORMING. WITH H8 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS,
MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70F.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN ANCHORED THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DECREASES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME COMING TO AGREEMENT REGARDING WHAT
HAPPENS WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A STRONGER DISTURBANCE DRIFTING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK, WHICH WOULD BRING RAIN TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND JUST ABOUT ALL OF ITS GEFS MEMBERS (INCLUDING THE LATEST 12Z
RUN) HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN SUPPRESSING THE DISTURBANCE FAR ENOUGH
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TO KEEP US DRY. THIS HAS A LOW PREDICTABILITY
PATTERN WRITTEN ALL OVER IT GIVEN THE WEAK STEERING FLOW THE LOW
WILL ENCOUNTER UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. OPTED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW
THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE, WHICH PREFERRED AN IN-BETWEEN SCENARIO
USING THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST WAS RATHER CONSERVATIVE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT, THE SETUP OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTENT FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE COASTAL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH OVERHEAD WOULD YIELD A WARMING TREND WITH
HIGHS POTENTIALLY NEAR 80F BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE LOWER CLOUDS BURNED OFF ACROSS KRDG/KABE AREAS EARLIER AND THE
DEL VALLEY SITES ARE IMPROVING AROUND TAF-TIME. KMIV/KACY WILL
PROBABLY KEEP SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS (OCNLY)
BEFORE A SUSTAINED IMPROVEMENT HAPPENS THERE. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SO FAR TODAY...BUT
A TURN TO MORE SWRLY WINDS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT WE HAVE KEPT
A TEMPO FOR SOME -SHRA ACROSS KRDG/KABE ANYHOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR DURING THE FROPA. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WRLY/NWRLY AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLR. MON...VFR WITH A GUSTY
WNW WIND THRU THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER MAINLY SKC AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT
STRATOCU TO INCREASE AS MARINE LAYER DRAWS INLAND. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS
LOPRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DRIFTS NORTHWARD. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RA COULD OCCUR (PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN
TERMINALS) IF THE LOW TRACKS FAR ENOUGH NORTH, WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN ATTM.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SWITCH AROUND TO NW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
OFFSHORE. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AROUND 10 KTS AND THEN SWITCH
MORE SWRLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT WRLY...THEN NWRLY AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE ISSUED A SCA FLAG
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND LOWER DEL BAY TO COVER THE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY AROUND NOON
MONDAY...SO WE WILL SET THE EXPIRATION TIME TO THAT FOR NOW...ITS
POSSIBLE IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW HOURS HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...BREEZY NW FLOW CONTINUES AS HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE
WATERS. CAPPED WINDS AROUND 20 KT, BUT STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
SCA IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS UP BEING A TAD STRONGER THAN
INDICATED BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NW WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OUT OF THE NE TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE FLOW, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FOUR TO SIX FT SEAS MAY CONTINUE THRU
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY DESPITE A WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW. SCA MAY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211919
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
319 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN
THE WEEK. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PARK OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE COAST...WELL EAST OF OUR
WATERS. THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF
THINNING ACROSS NJ/ERN DEL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WRN PARTS OF THE
CWA ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AS OF THE MID-AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO THE NE OVERNIGHT WHILE A CLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE WEAKENING OF THE
DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE MOSTLY JUST
KEPT THE SMALL CHC OR SLGT CHC POP FOR THE NRN/WRN AREAS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WRLY/NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MORNING. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW.MID 50S
NORTH/WEST TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SOUTH/EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A PLEASANT FALL-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AS
COOL AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. A GUSTY W/NW
WIND WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE NRN MOST
AREAS ONLY HAVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S (MOUNT POCONO) TO THE MID
60S. DEW POINTS MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD
INTO MID-ATLANTIC REGION STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE,
A SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS FORECAST TO LAG BEHIND THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. A CAA REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER OUR
REGION DURING THIS TIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT MAY DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S IN THE POCONOS BUT THE NW WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FROST FROM FORMING. WITH H8 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS,
MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70F.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN ANCHORED THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DECREASES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME COMING TO AGREEMENT REGARDING WHAT
HAPPENS WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A STRONGER DISTURBANCE DRIFTING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK, WHICH WOULD BRING RAIN TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND JUST ABOUT ALL OF ITS GEFS MEMBERS (INCLUDING THE LATEST 12Z
RUN) HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN SUPPRESSING THE DISTURBANCE FAR ENOUGH
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TO KEEP US DRY. THIS HAS A LOW PREDICTABILITY
PATTERN WRITTEN ALL OVER IT GIVEN THE WEAK STEERING FLOW THE LOW
WILL ENCOUNTER UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. OPTED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW
THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE, WHICH PREFERRED AN IN-BETWEEN SCENARIO
USING THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST WAS RATHER CONSERVATIVE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT, THE SETUP OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTENT FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE COASTAL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH OVERHEAD WOULD YIELD A WARMING TREND WITH
HIGHS POTENTIALLY NEAR 80F BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE LOWER CLOUDS BURNED OFF ACROSS KRDG/KABE AREAS EARLIER AND THE
DEL VALLEY SITES ARE IMPROVING AROUND TAF-TIME. KMIV/KACY WILL
PROBABLY KEEP SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS (OCNLY)
BEFORE A SUSTAINED IMPROVEMENT HAPPENS THERE. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SO FAR TODAY...BUT
A TURN TO MORE SWRLY WINDS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT WE HAVE KEPT
A TEMPO FOR SOME -SHRA ACROSS KRDG/KABE ANYHOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR DURING THE FROPA. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WRLY/NWRLY AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLR. MON...VFR WITH A GUSTY
WNW WIND THRU THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER MAINLY SKC AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT
STRATOCU TO INCREASE AS MARINE LAYER DRAWS INLAND. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS
LOPRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DRIFTS NORTHWARD. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RA COULD OCCUR (PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN
TERMINALS) IF THE LOW TRACKS FAR ENOUGH NORTH, WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN ATTM.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SWITCH AROUND TO NW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
OFFSHORE. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AROUND 10 KTS AND THEN SWITCH
MORE SWRLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT WRLY...THEN NWRLY AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE ISSUED A SCA FLAG
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND LOWER DEL BAY TO COVER THE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY AROUND NOON
MONDAY...SO WE WILL SET THE EXPIRATION TIME TO THAT FOR NOW...ITS
POSSIBLE IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW HOURS HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...BREEZY NW FLOW CONTINUES AS HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE
WATERS. CAPPED WINDS AROUND 20 KT, BUT STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
SCA IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS UP BEING A TAD STRONGER THAN
INDICATED BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NW WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OUT OF THE NE TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE FLOW, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FOUR TO SIX FT SEAS MAY CONTINUE THRU
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY DESPITE A WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW. SCA MAY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211919
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
319 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN
THE WEEK. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PARK OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE COAST...WELL EAST OF OUR
WATERS. THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF
THINNING ACROSS NJ/ERN DEL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WRN PARTS OF THE
CWA ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AS OF THE MID-AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO THE NE OVERNIGHT WHILE A CLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE WEAKENING OF THE
DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE MOSTLY JUST
KEPT THE SMALL CHC OR SLGT CHC POP FOR THE NRN/WRN AREAS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WRLY/NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MORNING. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW.MID 50S
NORTH/WEST TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SOUTH/EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A PLEASANT FALL-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AS
COOL AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. A GUSTY W/NW
WIND WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE NRN MOST
AREAS ONLY HAVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S (MOUNT POCONO) TO THE MID
60S. DEW POINTS MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD
INTO MID-ATLANTIC REGION STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE,
A SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS FORECAST TO LAG BEHIND THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. A CAA REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER OUR
REGION DURING THIS TIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT MAY DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S IN THE POCONOS BUT THE NW WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FROST FROM FORMING. WITH H8 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS,
MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70F.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN ANCHORED THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DECREASES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME COMING TO AGREEMENT REGARDING WHAT
HAPPENS WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A STRONGER DISTURBANCE DRIFTING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK, WHICH WOULD BRING RAIN TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND JUST ABOUT ALL OF ITS GEFS MEMBERS (INCLUDING THE LATEST 12Z
RUN) HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN SUPPRESSING THE DISTURBANCE FAR ENOUGH
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TO KEEP US DRY. THIS HAS A LOW PREDICTABILITY
PATTERN WRITTEN ALL OVER IT GIVEN THE WEAK STEERING FLOW THE LOW
WILL ENCOUNTER UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. OPTED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW
THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE, WHICH PREFERRED AN IN-BETWEEN SCENARIO
USING THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST WAS RATHER CONSERVATIVE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT, THE SETUP OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTENT FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE COASTAL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH OVERHEAD WOULD YIELD A WARMING TREND WITH
HIGHS POTENTIALLY NEAR 80F BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE LOWER CLOUDS BURNED OFF ACROSS KRDG/KABE AREAS EARLIER AND THE
DEL VALLEY SITES ARE IMPROVING AROUND TAF-TIME. KMIV/KACY WILL
PROBABLY KEEP SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS (OCNLY)
BEFORE A SUSTAINED IMPROVEMENT HAPPENS THERE. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SO FAR TODAY...BUT
A TURN TO MORE SWRLY WINDS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT WE HAVE KEPT
A TEMPO FOR SOME -SHRA ACROSS KRDG/KABE ANYHOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR DURING THE FROPA. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WRLY/NWRLY AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLR. MON...VFR WITH A GUSTY
WNW WIND THRU THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER MAINLY SKC AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT
STRATOCU TO INCREASE AS MARINE LAYER DRAWS INLAND. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS
LOPRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DRIFTS NORTHWARD. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RA COULD OCCUR (PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN
TERMINALS) IF THE LOW TRACKS FAR ENOUGH NORTH, WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN ATTM.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SWITCH AROUND TO NW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
OFFSHORE. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AROUND 10 KTS AND THEN SWITCH
MORE SWRLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT WRLY...THEN NWRLY AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE ISSUED A SCA FLAG
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND LOWER DEL BAY TO COVER THE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY AROUND NOON
MONDAY...SO WE WILL SET THE EXPIRATION TIME TO THAT FOR NOW...ITS
POSSIBLE IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW HOURS HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...BREEZY NW FLOW CONTINUES AS HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE
WATERS. CAPPED WINDS AROUND 20 KT, BUT STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
SCA IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS UP BEING A TAD STRONGER THAN
INDICATED BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NW WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OUT OF THE NE TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE FLOW, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FOUR TO SIX FT SEAS MAY CONTINUE THRU
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY DESPITE A WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW. SCA MAY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211919
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
319 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEASTWARD AND
AWAY FROM THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS AFTERNOON WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TONIGHT.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN
THE WEEK. THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO PARK OVER THE NORTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE UP THE COAST...WELL EAST OF OUR
WATERS. THE CLOUD COVER ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HAS SHOWN SOME SIGNS OF
THINNING ACROSS NJ/ERN DEL OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS. WRN PARTS OF THE
CWA ARE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY AS OF THE MID-AFTERNOON. THE LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO THE NE OVERNIGHT WHILE A CLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. MOST OF THE OPERATIONAL MODELS INDICATE WEAKENING OF THE
DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED PCPN WITH THE FRONT. WE HAVE MOSTLY JUST
KEPT THE SMALL CHC OR SLGT CHC POP FOR THE NRN/WRN AREAS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WRLY/NWRLY BEHIND THE FRONT. DRIER AIR WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA BY MORNING. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE LOW.MID 50S
NORTH/WEST TO THE UPPER 50S/LOW 60S SOUTH/EAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
A PLEASANT FALL-LIKE DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION MONDAY AS
COOL AND DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. A GUSTY W/NW
WIND WILL BE IN PLACE EARLY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WINDS
GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 MPH ARE EXPECTED. HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW 70S ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE NRN MOST
AREAS ONLY HAVING HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S (MOUNT POCONO) TO THE MID
60S. DEW POINTS MOSTLY IN THE LOW/MID 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPANSIVE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MIDWEST WILL BUILD EASTWARD
INTO MID-ATLANTIC REGION STATES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE,
A SOUTHERN PIECE OF ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW THAT IS
CURRENTLY OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION IS FORECAST TO LAG BEHIND THE
MAIN UPPER TROUGH AND POTENTIALLY DEVELOP INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER THE
SOUTHEAST STATES. A CAA REGIME WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER OUR
REGION DURING THIS TIME UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW. MINIMAL CLOUD COVER
AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPS ARE EXPECTED. TEMPS MONDAY NIGHT MAY DIP INTO
THE UPPER 30S IN THE POCONOS BUT THE NW WINDS OVERNIGHT SHOULD
PRECLUDE ANY FROST FROM FORMING. WITH H8 TEMPS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS,
MAX TEMPS ON TUESDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 70F.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETREAT NORTHEASTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND TUESDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN ANCHORED THERE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
FORECAST UNCERTAINTY DECREASES DURING THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AS
MODELS HAVE HAD A DIFFICULT TIME COMING TO AGREEMENT REGARDING WHAT
HAPPENS WITH THE ABOVE MENTIONED DISTURBANCE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
STATES. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS, THE ECMWF AND GEM CONTINUE TO
ADVERTISE A STRONGER DISTURBANCE DRIFTING UP THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
LATE IN THE WEEK, WHICH WOULD BRING RAIN TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THURSDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO FRIDAY. MEANWHILE, THE OPERATIONAL
GFS AND JUST ABOUT ALL OF ITS GEFS MEMBERS (INCLUDING THE LATEST 12Z
RUN) HAS BEEN PERSISTENT IN SUPPRESSING THE DISTURBANCE FAR ENOUGH
TO THE SOUTH AND EAST TO KEEP US DRY. THIS HAS A LOW PREDICTABILITY
PATTERN WRITTEN ALL OVER IT GIVEN THE WEAK STEERING FLOW THE LOW
WILL ENCOUNTER UNDERNEATH THE UPPER RIDGE. OPTED TO CLOSELY FOLLOW
THE LATEST WPC GUIDANCE, WHICH PREFERRED AN IN-BETWEEN SCENARIO
USING THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN. FORECAST WAS RATHER CONSERVATIVE
WITH SLIGHT CHANCE POPS CONFINED TO THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHERN NJ.
REGARDLESS OF WHICH SOLUTION PANS OUT, THE SETUP OF HIGH PRESSURE TO
OUR NORTHEAST AND LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH WILL RESULT IN
PERSISTENT FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC OCEAN, SEASONABLY COOL TEMPS AND
INCREASING CLOUD COVER.

THE COASTAL DISTURBANCE IS FORECAST TO MOVE OFFSHORE BY THE WEEKEND
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE AREA. STRENGTHENING
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH OVERHEAD WOULD YIELD A WARMING TREND WITH
HIGHS POTENTIALLY NEAR 80F BOTH DAYS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE LOWER CLOUDS BURNED OFF ACROSS KRDG/KABE AREAS EARLIER AND THE
DEL VALLEY SITES ARE IMPROVING AROUND TAF-TIME. KMIV/KACY WILL
PROBABLY KEEP SOME MVFR CONDITIONS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS (OCNLY)
BEFORE A SUSTAINED IMPROVEMENT HAPPENS THERE. LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES
TO MOVE NORTHEAST WELL OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT AND VARIABLE SO FAR TODAY...BUT
A TURN TO MORE SWRLY WINDS IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
REMAIN THAT WAY UNTIL THE FRONT PASSES.

THE MODELS ARE SHOWING LITTLE PCPN WITH THE FRONT...BUT WE HAVE KEPT
A TEMPO FOR SOME -SHRA ACROSS KRDG/KABE ANYHOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN VFR DURING THE FROPA. BEHIND THE FRONT WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
WRLY/NWRLY AND SKIES WILL BECOME MOSTLY CLR. MON...VFR WITH A GUSTY
WNW WIND THRU THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR UNDER MAINLY SKC AND
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW DEVELOPS. EXPECT
STRATOCU TO INCREASE AS MARINE LAYER DRAWS INLAND. SOME POTENTIAL
FOR MVFR CIGS ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...LOWER THAN NORMAL FORECAST CONFIDENCE AS
LOPRES OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DRIFTS NORTHWARD. SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT RA COULD OCCUR (PARTICULARLY SOUTHERN
TERMINALS) IF THE LOW TRACKS FAR ENOUGH NORTH, WHICH IS STILL
UNCERTAIN ATTM.


&&

.MARINE...
WINDS ARE BEGINNING TO SWITCH AROUND TO NW BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
OFFSHORE. THE WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY AROUND 10 KTS AND THEN SWITCH
MORE SWRLY THIS EVENING...BEFORE A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS
OVERNIGHT. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL SHIFT WRLY...THEN NWRLY AND
INCREASE TO 10 TO 20 KTS WITH SOME GUSTS AROUND 25 KTS. SEAS ON THE
OCEAN WILL BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT OVERNIGHT. WE HAVE ISSUED A SCA FLAG
FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND LOWER DEL BAY TO COVER THE EXPECTED
CONDITIONS. WINDS/SEAS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE BY AROUND NOON
MONDAY...SO WE WILL SET THE EXPIRATION TIME TO THAT FOR NOW...ITS
POSSIBLE IT MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED A FEW HOURS HOWEVER.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT...BREEZY NW FLOW CONTINUES AS HIPRES BUILDS INTO THE
WATERS. CAPPED WINDS AROUND 20 KT, BUT STILL SOME POTENTIAL FOR A
SCA IF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS UP BEING A TAD STRONGER THAN
INDICATED BY THE LATEST GUIDANCE.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...NW WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OUT OF THE NE TUESDAY NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...NE WINDS STRENGTHEN TO NEAR SCA
CRITERIA ON WEDNESDAY. IN RESPONSE TO THE FLOW, SEAS ARE FORECAST TO
BUILD TO AROUND 5 FT BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...FOUR TO SIX FT SEAS MAY CONTINUE THRU
THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY DESPITE A WEAKER ONSHORE FLOW. SCA MAY BE
NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON EDT MONDAY
     FOR ANZ431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211423
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1023 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE
WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING. THE MOISTURE IS RATHER SHALLOW...SO WHEN IT MIXES OUT BY
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RISE RATHER QUICKLY. WE
WILL HOLD ONTO THE MAX TEMP FCST FROM EARLIER.

LOW PRESSURE OFF THE DELMARVA WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
NORTHEAST...AND IT APPEARS THE RAIN SHIELD WILL STAY
OFFSHORE...JUST TO THE EAST OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

LOW PRESSURE WILL ALSO MOVE TO THE NORTH AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ONLY SLGT CHC OF
SMALL CHC POPS ACROSS THE NRN/WRN AREAS. ADDED SLGT CHC THUNDER
N/W. PUBLIC PRODUCTS UPDATED JUST AFTER 10 AM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FEATURE IMPACTING OUR AREA TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH, MAKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND MAYBE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK AT ALL
IMPRESSIVE. WITH THE SUN SETTING EARLIER AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, WE
WILL LOSE SOME OF THE OOMPH NEEDED TO HELP PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND WE WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST OCCUR. COOLER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN TOWARD
MORNING BUT WILL NOT ARRIVE IN TIME TO IMPACT OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD OF MONDAY THRU SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MON AND TUE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEW
ENGLAND BY WED AND THU...AND THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST TO THE LOWER
GRTLKS AND MID-ATLANTIC BY FRI/SAT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROF OVER
THE ERN US ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HWVR THIS SOLN SEEMS TO BE OUT OF
LINE WITH OTHER MODELS INCLUDING THE EURO ENSEMBLE...ACCORDING TO
WPC...AND NOW THE NEW 00Z ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE RATHER THAN A CLOSED LOW. STILL...WITH EASTERLY/ONSHORE
FLOW AROUND THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRES...HAVE ACCEPTED WPC POPS
OVER DELMARVA AND SRN NJ FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WITH A SMALL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MON AND TUE BUT SHOULD
BECOME NEUTRAL BY MID-WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VERY SLOW IMPROVEMENT IN CIGS/VSBYS THROUGH THE REST OF
THE MORNING. VERY LIGHT WINDS. HOPEFULLY VFR BY MID AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL SWING AROUND TO SW ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY LATE 5 TO 10
KTS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCES ARE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SOME STRATO-CU MAY DEVELOP IN THIS SETUP, WHICH COULD MAY RESULT
IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS, MOST LIKELY FOR RDG/ABE TERMINALS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY DROPPED DURING THE MID MORNING.

SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
STARTING TO RAMP UP AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST OF
OUR AREA WATERS.

SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THEM TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST AS
THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW. POST-
FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
NW FLOW SEAS COULD BUILD UP TO 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THIS
IS NOT CERTAIN AND WITH SCA CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND A LULL
EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVE...WILL NOT ISSUE ANOTHER SCA AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUE AND
WED BUT INCREASING EAST FLOW BY THU COULD BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 5 FEET...
ESPECIALLY CAPE MAY AND SOUTH.

&&



.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...PO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/MEOLA/PO
MARINE...AMC/MEOLA/PO







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211054
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
654 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE
WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWO FEATURES WILL INFLUENCE TODAYS WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA.

THE FIRST IS THE COASTAL LOW OFF OF THE CAROLINAS MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, IT IS SENDING SOME SHOWERS UP OUR WAY,
MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THESE SHOWERS SO WE HAVE ADDED THEM INTO
THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
WATER. THIS LOW SHOULD BE OFF OF OUR COASTAL WATERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE SECOND FEATURE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
THIS FEATURE IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING AND THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH
OUR WESTERN AREAS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT AND THUNDER, IF IT OCCURS,
WOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED AS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK ALL
THAT ROBUST TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD BE TOWARD THIS
AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL START OFF PRETTY CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER EAST AND
TOWARDS THE COAST YOU GO. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS, SOME FOG WILL
EXIST AND WITH THE LOWER SUN ANGLE (THINK MORE OF A MARCH SUN ANGLE)
THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER BEFORE WE REALLY START
TO CLEAR OUT. WE DO EXPECT THAT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, THE
SUN SHOULD START TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE AND WE WILL CERTAINLY SEE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESPOND.

WITH THE WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
STARTING POINT TO SEE TEMPS RISE TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION AS WE HAVE A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FEATURE IMPACTING OUR AREA TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH, MAKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND MAYBE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK AT ALL
IMPRESSIVE. WITH THE SUN SETTING EARLIER AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, WE
WILL LOSE SOME OF THE OOMPH NEEDED TO HELP PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND WE WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST OCCUR. COOLER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN TOWARD
MORNING BUT WILL NOT ARRIVE IN TIME TO IMPACT OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD OF MONDAY THRU SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MON AND TUE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEW
ENGLAND BY WED AND THU...AND THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST TO THE LOWER
GRTLKS AND MID-ATLANTIC BY FRI/SAT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROF OVER
THE ERN US ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HWVR THIS SOLN SEEMS TO BE OUT OF
LINE WITH OTHER MODELS INCLUDING THE EURO ENSEMBLE...ACCORDING TO
WPC...AND NOW THE NEW 00Z ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE RATHER THAN A CLOSED LOW. STILL...WITH EASTERLY/ONSHORE
FLOW AROUND THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRES...HAVE ACCEPTED WPC POPS
OVER DELMARVA AND SRN NJ FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WITH A SMALL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MON AND TUE BUT SHOULD
BECOME NEUTRAL BY MID-WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14-16Z ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS TO
START TO THE DAY WILL BE SLOW TO PICK UP BUT WILL BECOME OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AROUND EARLY AFTERNOON. A
MORE EASTERLY FLOW IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND AT KACY THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A SHIFT MORE TO SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHWEST. SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE
THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE AND NOT IMPACT THE
TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCES ARE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SOME STRATO-CU MAY DEVELOP IN THIS SETUP, WHICH COULD MAY RESULT
IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS, MOST LIKELY FOR RDG/ABE TERMINALS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON TODAY FOR OUR
OCEAN FRONT.

SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO RAMP UP
AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WATERS. THERE
LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THEM TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST AS
THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW. POST-
FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
NW FLOW SEAS COULD BUILD UP TO 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THIS
IS NOT CERTAIN AND WITH SCA CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND A LULL
EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVE...WILL NOT ISSUE ANOTHER SCA AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUE AND
WED BUT INCREASING EAST FLOW BY THU COULD BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 5 FEET...
ESPECIALLY CAPE MAY AND SOUTH.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/MEOLA
MARINE...AMC/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211054
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
654 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE
WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWO FEATURES WILL INFLUENCE TODAYS WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA.

THE FIRST IS THE COASTAL LOW OFF OF THE CAROLINAS MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, IT IS SENDING SOME SHOWERS UP OUR WAY,
MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THESE SHOWERS SO WE HAVE ADDED THEM INTO
THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
WATER. THIS LOW SHOULD BE OFF OF OUR COASTAL WATERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE SECOND FEATURE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
THIS FEATURE IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING AND THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH
OUR WESTERN AREAS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT AND THUNDER, IF IT OCCURS,
WOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED AS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK ALL
THAT ROBUST TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD BE TOWARD THIS
AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL START OFF PRETTY CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER EAST AND
TOWARDS THE COAST YOU GO. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS, SOME FOG WILL
EXIST AND WITH THE LOWER SUN ANGLE (THINK MORE OF A MARCH SUN ANGLE)
THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER BEFORE WE REALLY START
TO CLEAR OUT. WE DO EXPECT THAT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, THE
SUN SHOULD START TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE AND WE WILL CERTAINLY SEE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESPOND.

WITH THE WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
STARTING POINT TO SEE TEMPS RISE TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION AS WE HAVE A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FEATURE IMPACTING OUR AREA TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH, MAKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND MAYBE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK AT ALL
IMPRESSIVE. WITH THE SUN SETTING EARLIER AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, WE
WILL LOSE SOME OF THE OOMPH NEEDED TO HELP PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND WE WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST OCCUR. COOLER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN TOWARD
MORNING BUT WILL NOT ARRIVE IN TIME TO IMPACT OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD OF MONDAY THRU SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MON AND TUE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEW
ENGLAND BY WED AND THU...AND THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST TO THE LOWER
GRTLKS AND MID-ATLANTIC BY FRI/SAT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROF OVER
THE ERN US ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HWVR THIS SOLN SEEMS TO BE OUT OF
LINE WITH OTHER MODELS INCLUDING THE EURO ENSEMBLE...ACCORDING TO
WPC...AND NOW THE NEW 00Z ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE RATHER THAN A CLOSED LOW. STILL...WITH EASTERLY/ONSHORE
FLOW AROUND THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRES...HAVE ACCEPTED WPC POPS
OVER DELMARVA AND SRN NJ FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WITH A SMALL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MON AND TUE BUT SHOULD
BECOME NEUTRAL BY MID-WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14-16Z ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS TO
START TO THE DAY WILL BE SLOW TO PICK UP BUT WILL BECOME OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AROUND EARLY AFTERNOON. A
MORE EASTERLY FLOW IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND AT KACY THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A SHIFT MORE TO SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHWEST. SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE
THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE AND NOT IMPACT THE
TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCES ARE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SOME STRATO-CU MAY DEVELOP IN THIS SETUP, WHICH COULD MAY RESULT
IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS, MOST LIKELY FOR RDG/ABE TERMINALS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON TODAY FOR OUR
OCEAN FRONT.

SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO RAMP UP
AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WATERS. THERE
LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THEM TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST AS
THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW. POST-
FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
NW FLOW SEAS COULD BUILD UP TO 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THIS
IS NOT CERTAIN AND WITH SCA CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND A LULL
EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVE...WILL NOT ISSUE ANOTHER SCA AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUE AND
WED BUT INCREASING EAST FLOW BY THU COULD BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 5 FEET...
ESPECIALLY CAPE MAY AND SOUTH.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/MEOLA
MARINE...AMC/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211054
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
654 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE
WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWO FEATURES WILL INFLUENCE TODAYS WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA.

THE FIRST IS THE COASTAL LOW OFF OF THE CAROLINAS MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, IT IS SENDING SOME SHOWERS UP OUR WAY,
MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THESE SHOWERS SO WE HAVE ADDED THEM INTO
THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
WATER. THIS LOW SHOULD BE OFF OF OUR COASTAL WATERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE SECOND FEATURE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
THIS FEATURE IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING AND THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH
OUR WESTERN AREAS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT AND THUNDER, IF IT OCCURS,
WOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED AS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK ALL
THAT ROBUST TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD BE TOWARD THIS
AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL START OFF PRETTY CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER EAST AND
TOWARDS THE COAST YOU GO. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS, SOME FOG WILL
EXIST AND WITH THE LOWER SUN ANGLE (THINK MORE OF A MARCH SUN ANGLE)
THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER BEFORE WE REALLY START
TO CLEAR OUT. WE DO EXPECT THAT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, THE
SUN SHOULD START TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE AND WE WILL CERTAINLY SEE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESPOND.

WITH THE WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
STARTING POINT TO SEE TEMPS RISE TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION AS WE HAVE A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FEATURE IMPACTING OUR AREA TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH, MAKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND MAYBE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK AT ALL
IMPRESSIVE. WITH THE SUN SETTING EARLIER AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, WE
WILL LOSE SOME OF THE OOMPH NEEDED TO HELP PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND WE WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST OCCUR. COOLER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN TOWARD
MORNING BUT WILL NOT ARRIVE IN TIME TO IMPACT OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD OF MONDAY THRU SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MON AND TUE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEW
ENGLAND BY WED AND THU...AND THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST TO THE LOWER
GRTLKS AND MID-ATLANTIC BY FRI/SAT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROF OVER
THE ERN US ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HWVR THIS SOLN SEEMS TO BE OUT OF
LINE WITH OTHER MODELS INCLUDING THE EURO ENSEMBLE...ACCORDING TO
WPC...AND NOW THE NEW 00Z ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE RATHER THAN A CLOSED LOW. STILL...WITH EASTERLY/ONSHORE
FLOW AROUND THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRES...HAVE ACCEPTED WPC POPS
OVER DELMARVA AND SRN NJ FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WITH A SMALL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MON AND TUE BUT SHOULD
BECOME NEUTRAL BY MID-WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14-16Z ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS TO
START TO THE DAY WILL BE SLOW TO PICK UP BUT WILL BECOME OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AROUND EARLY AFTERNOON. A
MORE EASTERLY FLOW IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND AT KACY THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A SHIFT MORE TO SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHWEST. SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE
THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE AND NOT IMPACT THE
TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCES ARE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SOME STRATO-CU MAY DEVELOP IN THIS SETUP, WHICH COULD MAY RESULT
IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS, MOST LIKELY FOR RDG/ABE TERMINALS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON TODAY FOR OUR
OCEAN FRONT.

SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO RAMP UP
AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WATERS. THERE
LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THEM TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST AS
THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW. POST-
FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
NW FLOW SEAS COULD BUILD UP TO 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THIS
IS NOT CERTAIN AND WITH SCA CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND A LULL
EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVE...WILL NOT ISSUE ANOTHER SCA AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUE AND
WED BUT INCREASING EAST FLOW BY THU COULD BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 5 FEET...
ESPECIALLY CAPE MAY AND SOUTH.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/MEOLA
MARINE...AMC/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211054
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
654 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE
WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWO FEATURES WILL INFLUENCE TODAYS WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA.

THE FIRST IS THE COASTAL LOW OFF OF THE CAROLINAS MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, IT IS SENDING SOME SHOWERS UP OUR WAY,
MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THESE SHOWERS SO WE HAVE ADDED THEM INTO
THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
WATER. THIS LOW SHOULD BE OFF OF OUR COASTAL WATERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE SECOND FEATURE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
THIS FEATURE IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING AND THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH
OUR WESTERN AREAS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT AND THUNDER, IF IT OCCURS,
WOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED AS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK ALL
THAT ROBUST TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD BE TOWARD THIS
AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL START OFF PRETTY CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER EAST AND
TOWARDS THE COAST YOU GO. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS, SOME FOG WILL
EXIST AND WITH THE LOWER SUN ANGLE (THINK MORE OF A MARCH SUN ANGLE)
THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER BEFORE WE REALLY START
TO CLEAR OUT. WE DO EXPECT THAT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, THE
SUN SHOULD START TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE AND WE WILL CERTAINLY SEE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESPOND.

WITH THE WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
STARTING POINT TO SEE TEMPS RISE TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION AS WE HAVE A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FEATURE IMPACTING OUR AREA TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH, MAKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND MAYBE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK AT ALL
IMPRESSIVE. WITH THE SUN SETTING EARLIER AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, WE
WILL LOSE SOME OF THE OOMPH NEEDED TO HELP PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND WE WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST OCCUR. COOLER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN TOWARD
MORNING BUT WILL NOT ARRIVE IN TIME TO IMPACT OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD OF MONDAY THRU SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MON AND TUE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEW
ENGLAND BY WED AND THU...AND THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST TO THE LOWER
GRTLKS AND MID-ATLANTIC BY FRI/SAT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROF OVER
THE ERN US ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HWVR THIS SOLN SEEMS TO BE OUT OF
LINE WITH OTHER MODELS INCLUDING THE EURO ENSEMBLE...ACCORDING TO
WPC...AND NOW THE NEW 00Z ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE RATHER THAN A CLOSED LOW. STILL...WITH EASTERLY/ONSHORE
FLOW AROUND THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRES...HAVE ACCEPTED WPC POPS
OVER DELMARVA AND SRN NJ FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WITH A SMALL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MON AND TUE BUT SHOULD
BECOME NEUTRAL BY MID-WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND BY WEEKS END.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS
MORNING. SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT AND CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE TO VFR BETWEEN 14-16Z ACROSS THE TERMINALS. LIGHT WINDS TO
START TO THE DAY WILL BE SLOW TO PICK UP BUT WILL BECOME OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS AROUND EARLY AFTERNOON. A
MORE EASTERLY FLOW IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST AND AT KACY THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE A SHIFT MORE TO SOUTH AND THEN
SOUTHWEST. SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE
THESE SHOWERS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE AND NOT IMPACT THE
TERMINALS.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCES ARE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SOME STRATO-CU MAY DEVELOP IN THIS SETUP, WHICH COULD MAY RESULT
IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS, MOST LIKELY FOR RDG/ABE TERMINALS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON TODAY FOR OUR
OCEAN FRONT.

SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO RAMP UP
AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WATERS. THERE
LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THEM TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST AS
THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW. POST-
FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
NW FLOW SEAS COULD BUILD UP TO 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THIS
IS NOT CERTAIN AND WITH SCA CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND A LULL
EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVE...WILL NOT ISSUE ANOTHER SCA AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUE AND
WED BUT INCREASING EAST FLOW BY THU COULD BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 5 FEET...
ESPECIALLY CAPE MAY AND SOUTH.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/MEOLA
MARINE...AMC/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210841
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
441 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE
WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWO FEATURES WILL INFLUENCE TODAYS WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA.

THE FIRST IS THE COASTAL LOW OFF OF THE CAROLINAS MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, IT IS SENDING SOME SHOWERS UP OUR WAY,
MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THESE SHOWERS SO WE HAVE ADDED THEM INTO
THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
WATER. THIS LOW SHOULD BE OFF OF OUR COASTAL WATERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE SECOND FEATURE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
THIS FEATURE IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING AND THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH
OUR WESTERN AREAS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT AND THUNDER, IF IT OCCURS,
WOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED AS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK ALL
THAT ROBUST TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD BE TOWARD THIS
AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL START OFF PRETTY CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER EAST AND
TOWARDS THE COAST YOU GO. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS, SOME FOG WILL
EXIST AND WITH THE LOWER SUN ANGLE (THINK MORE OF A MARCH SUN ANGLE)
THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER BEFORE WE REALLY START
TO CLEAR OUT. WE DO EXPECT THAT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, THE
SUN SHOULD START TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE AND WE WILL CERTAINLY SEE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESPOND.

WITH THE WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
STARTING POINT TO SEE TEMPS RISE TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION AS WE HAVE A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FEATURE IMPACTING OUR AREA TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH, MAKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND MAYBE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK AT ALL
IMPRESSIVE. WITH THE SUN SETTING EARLIER AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, WE
WILL LOSE SOME OF THE OOMPH NEEDED TO HELP PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND WE WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST OCCUR. COOLER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN TOWARD
MORNING BUT WILL NOT ARRIVE IN TIME TO IMPACT OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD OF MONDAY THRU SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MON AND TUE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEW
ENGLAND BY WED AND THU...AND THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST TO THE LOWER
GRTLKS AND MID-ATLANTIC BY FRI/SAT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROF OVER
THE ERN US ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HWVR THIS SOLN SEEMS TO BE OUT OF
LINE WITH OTHER MODELS INCLUDING THE EURO ENSEMBLE...ACCORDING TO
WPC...AND NOW THE NEW 00Z ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE RATHER THAN A CLOSED LOW. STILL...WITH EASTERLY/ONSHORE
FLOW AROUND THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRES...HAVE ACCEPTED WPC POPS
OVER DELMARVA AND SRN NJ FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WITH A SMALL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MON AND TUE BUT SHOULD
BECOME NEUTRAL BY MID-WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND BY WEEKS END.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BETWEEN 14-16Z ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A MORE EASTERLY FLOW IS LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AND AT KACY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THESE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE BUT MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KACY THROUGH THIS
MORNING.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCES ARE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SOME STRATO-CU MAY DEVELOP IN THIS SETUP, WHICH COULD MAY RESULT
IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS, MOST LIKELY FOR RDG/ABE TERMINALS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON TODAY FOR OUR
OCEAN FRONT.

SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO RAMP UP
AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WATERS. THERE
LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THEM TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST AS
THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW. POST-
FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
NW FLOW SEAS COULD BUILD UP TO 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THIS
IS NOT CERTAIN AND WITH SCA CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND A LULL
EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVE...WILL NOT ISSUE ANOTHER SCA AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUE AND
WED BUT INCREASING EAST FLOW BY THU COULD BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 5 FEET...
ESPECIALLY CAPE MAY AND SOUTH.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/MEOLA
MARINE...AMC/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210841
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
441 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST TODAY WHILE A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE
WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWO FEATURES WILL INFLUENCE TODAYS WEATHER ACROSS OUR AREA.

THE FIRST IS THE COASTAL LOW OFF OF THE CAROLINAS MOVING UP THE
EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY. THIS LOW CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE IT WILL
REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, IT IS SENDING SOME SHOWERS UP OUR WAY,
MAINLY ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS. THERE ARE SOME ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS EMBEDDED IN THESE SHOWERS SO WE HAVE ADDED THEM INTO
THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS MORNING RIGHT ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE
WATER. THIS LOW SHOULD BE OFF OF OUR COASTAL WATERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN WILL QUICKLY MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST.

THE SECOND FEATURE IS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES. THIS LOW WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT TOWARDS OUR AREA. HOWEVER,
THIS FEATURE IS A LITTLE SLOWER MOVING AND THE FRONT WILL NOT REACH
OUR WESTERN AREAS UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOME SHOWERS
WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN FRONT AND THUNDER, IF IT OCCURS,
WOULD BE PRETTY ISOLATED AS CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS DO NOT LOOK ALL
THAT ROBUST TODAY. BEST CHANCES FOR THUNDER WOULD BE TOWARD THIS
AFTERNOON.

TODAY WILL START OFF PRETTY CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER EAST AND
TOWARDS THE COAST YOU GO. IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUDS, SOME FOG WILL
EXIST AND WITH THE LOWER SUN ANGLE (THINK MORE OF A MARCH SUN ANGLE)
THIS TIME OF YEAR, IT WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER BEFORE WE REALLY START
TO CLEAR OUT. WE DO EXPECT THAT BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON, THE
SUN SHOULD START TO MAKE AN APPEARANCE AND WE WILL CERTAINLY SEE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES RESPOND.

WITH THE WARMER OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES, WE HAVE A PRETTY GOOD
STARTING POINT TO SEE TEMPS RISE TODAY. EXPECT HIGHS TO REACH INTO
THE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS THE REGION AS WE HAVE A MORE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE THE FEATURE IMPACTING OUR AREA TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS EVENING AND THEN SLOWLY
PUSH ITS WAY THROUGH, MAKING ITS WAY OFFSHORE BY LATE TONIGHT OR
EARLY MONDAY.

THE FRONT WILL HAVE SOME SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND MAYBE A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER, ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY DOES NOT LOOK AT ALL
IMPRESSIVE. WITH THE SUN SETTING EARLIER AT THIS TIME OF YEAR, WE
WILL LOSE SOME OF THE OOMPH NEEDED TO HELP PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS.

THE FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT AND WE WILL SEE A WIND SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST OCCUR. COOLER AIR WILL START TO MOVE IN TOWARD
MORNING BUT WILL NOT ARRIVE IN TIME TO IMPACT OVERNIGHT TEMPS.
EXPECT LOWS TO BE IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
RATHER BENIGN WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE ENTIRE EXTENDED
FORECAST PERIOD OF MONDAY THRU SATURDAY. THE COLD FRONT FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT SHOULD BE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC
COAST BY MONDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT ON MON AND TUE IS EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN OVER NEW
ENGLAND BY WED AND THU...AND THEN SHIFT SLIGHTLY WEST TO THE LOWER
GRTLKS AND MID-ATLANTIC BY FRI/SAT. MEANWHILE AN UPPER TROF OVER
THE ERN US ON MONDAY WILL GIVE WAY TO AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDING OVER
THE REGION BY MID WEEK AND CONTINUING INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

THE 12Z ECMWF SHOWED AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
BY THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. HWVR THIS SOLN SEEMS TO BE OUT OF
LINE WITH OTHER MODELS INCLUDING THE EURO ENSEMBLE...ACCORDING TO
WPC...AND NOW THE NEW 00Z ECMWF SHOWS MORE OF A WEAKNESS IN THE
UPPER RIDGE RATHER THAN A CLOSED LOW. STILL...WITH EASTERLY/ONSHORE
FLOW AROUND THE NEW ENGLAND HIGH PRES...HAVE ACCEPTED WPC POPS
OVER DELMARVA AND SRN NJ FOR THU AND THU NIGHT...BUT WITH A SMALL
DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENT.

LOW-LEVEL COLD ADVECTION WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MON AND TUE BUT SHOULD
BECOME NEUTRAL BY MID-WEEK...WITH A WARMING TREND BY WEEKS END.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE THIS MORNING.
SKIES SHOULD START TO CLEAR OUT AND CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
BETWEEN 14-16Z ACROSS THE TERMINALS. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE
SOUTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS. A MORE EASTERLY FLOW IS LIKELY
ALONG THE COAST AND AT KACY THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME
SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUE TO
MOVE NORTHWARD ALONG THE COAST. IT LOOKS LIKE THESE SHOWERS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY OFFSHORE BUT MAY BRIEFLY IMPACT KACY THROUGH THIS
MORNING.

TONIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. WINDS WILL
SHIFT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE
COLD FRONT. BEST CHANCES ARE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT.
SOME STRATO-CU MAY DEVELOP IN THIS SETUP, WHICH COULD MAY RESULT
IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS, MOST LIKELY FOR RDG/ABE TERMINALS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH NOON TODAY FOR OUR
OCEAN FRONT.

SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE STARTING TO RAMP UP
AGAIN AS LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA WATERS. THERE
LOOKS TO BE A PERIOD OF SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS AND THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. WILL HOLD OFF ON EXTENDING THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY AT THIS TIME.

SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH, WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE
WATERS THIS MORNING. EXPECT THEM TO GRADUALLY MOVE NORTH AND EAST AS
THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY UP THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING RESULTING IN A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO NW. POST-
FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT RULE
OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
NW FLOW SEAS COULD BUILD UP TO 5 FEET WELL OFFSHORE. HOWEVER THIS
IS NOT CERTAIN AND WITH SCA CURRENTLY IN EFFECT AND A LULL
EXPECTED THIS AFTN/EVE...WILL NOT ISSUE ANOTHER SCA AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR TUE AND
WED BUT INCREASING EAST FLOW BY THU COULD BUILD SEAS TO NEAR 5 FEET...
ESPECIALLY CAPE MAY AND SOUTH.

&&


.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...AMC
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...AMC
AVIATION...AMC/MEOLA
MARINE...AMC/MEOLA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 210438
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1238 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.

SOME SHOWERS ARE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND ARE MOVING NORTHWARD. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS, BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. DON`T EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO MAKE IT
TOO FAR INLAND AT THIS POINT AS THE FEATURE THEY ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH IS STILL PRETTY FAR AWAY. IN ADDITION, WHERE RAIN FALLS WE
WILL SEE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

WINDS HAVE GONE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST LOCATIONS AND WHERE
WIND EXISTS, IT WILL BE LIGHT OUR OF THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND DEWPOINTS ARE
CREEPING UP INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY WE WILL SEE TEMPS IN TO
EH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TONIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE IS
SHOWN MOVING UP ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY WHILE A SECOND LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADS TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. A
COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE SECOND LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FIRST LOW...NEAR
THE SHORE AREAS EARLY...THEN WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN/WRN
AREAS LATE. IT WILL LIKELY BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY AND
SOME MORNING FOG MAY BE SLOW TO BURN OFF. LIMITED SUN WILL BE
ENOUGH TO BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY...THEN FAVOR A SRLY/SWRLY
DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FROPA OCCURRING DURING
THE EVENING WEST OF I-95 AND OVERNIGHT FARTHER TO THE EAST. EXPECT
TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAK TRAVERSES
THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT APPROACHES THE
EASTERN SEABOARD, BUT AMPLIFICATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TOO LATE
FOR DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OR ATLANTIC TO REACH
OUR AREA IN TIME. THE FORECAST PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM 12Z
GFS/NAM AND 09Z SREF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER INSTABILITY. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP TO BE
PARTICULARLY HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD UNDER THIS SETUP.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ON MONDAY IN A TIMELY FASHION FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF AUTUMN. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 60F IN THE
POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NJ. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIER OF THE CWA.
MODELS OFTEN UNDER DO THE POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING
SIGNIFICANT CAA REGIMES.

A QUIET WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THIS TIME. A CUTOFF LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE WAS SOME HINT AT THIS LOW DRIFTING NORTHWARD
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN POSSIBLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER, PREDICTABILITY IN THIS
SETUP IS LOWER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A LACK OF STEERING FLOW UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF, DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FROM NWP GUIDANCE TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TOWARD A
MORE PESSIMISTIC (I.E., CLOUDY AND RAINY) FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK. CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE DELMARVA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS ADVERTISED THRU THE END OF THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS HAVE STARTED TO FALL TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO REMAIN DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
BRIEF PERIODS WHERE SKIES SCATTER OUT. WITH LIGHT WINDS, WITH A
SLIGHT EASTERLY FLOW, EXPECT THE DOWNWARD TREND TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS.

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR CLOSE TO THE
SHORE. THIS WAS PLACED IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR KACY. SHOULD RAIN
OCCUR AT ANY TERMINALS, THE CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WOULD
INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SLOW RECOVERY BACK TO VFR WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND A GRADUAL SWITCH IN WINDS TO SW. IT IS LIKELY THAT MOST SITES
WILL BE BACK TO VFR 14Z- 16Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE TERMINALS. SCT SHRA ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND
SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA.

MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE SURGE. STRATOCU FAVORED IN
THIS SETUP, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS FOR PHILLY
TERMINALS NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FLAG OUT PRESENTLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE EXTENDED
IN TIME...SINCE THE APPROACHING LOW WILL NOT DO ANYTHING TO REDUCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED SEAS. WE WILL ADD THE NRN-MOST COASTAL
ZONE TO THE MIX THIS EVENING...WHEN THE HIGHER SEAS WILL (PROBABLY)
ARRIVE THERE. THE SCA FLAG WILL CONTINUE THRU NOON SUNDAY. BY THEN
THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED
ACROSS THE WATERS. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NW. POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SEAS INCREASE TO 4-6 FT IN THE ATLANTIC
JUST OFF THE DE/NJ COAST DURING THIS TIME. OPTED TO HOLD OF ON
ISSUING A SCA WITH ANOTHER SCA IN EFFECT THRU NOON SUNDAY AND A LULL
IN SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR 6-12 HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 210438
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1238 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.

SOME SHOWERS ARE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND ARE MOVING NORTHWARD. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS, BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. DON`T EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO MAKE IT
TOO FAR INLAND AT THIS POINT AS THE FEATURE THEY ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH IS STILL PRETTY FAR AWAY. IN ADDITION, WHERE RAIN FALLS WE
WILL SEE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

WINDS HAVE GONE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST LOCATIONS AND WHERE
WIND EXISTS, IT WILL BE LIGHT OUR OF THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND DEWPOINTS ARE
CREEPING UP INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY WE WILL SEE TEMPS IN TO
EH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TONIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE IS
SHOWN MOVING UP ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY WHILE A SECOND LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADS TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. A
COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE SECOND LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FIRST LOW...NEAR
THE SHORE AREAS EARLY...THEN WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN/WRN
AREAS LATE. IT WILL LIKELY BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY AND
SOME MORNING FOG MAY BE SLOW TO BURN OFF. LIMITED SUN WILL BE
ENOUGH TO BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY...THEN FAVOR A SRLY/SWRLY
DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FROPA OCCURRING DURING
THE EVENING WEST OF I-95 AND OVERNIGHT FARTHER TO THE EAST. EXPECT
TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAK TRAVERSES
THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT APPROACHES THE
EASTERN SEABOARD, BUT AMPLIFICATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TOO LATE
FOR DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OR ATLANTIC TO REACH
OUR AREA IN TIME. THE FORECAST PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM 12Z
GFS/NAM AND 09Z SREF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER INSTABILITY. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP TO BE
PARTICULARLY HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD UNDER THIS SETUP.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ON MONDAY IN A TIMELY FASHION FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF AUTUMN. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 60F IN THE
POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NJ. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIER OF THE CWA.
MODELS OFTEN UNDER DO THE POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING
SIGNIFICANT CAA REGIMES.

A QUIET WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THIS TIME. A CUTOFF LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE WAS SOME HINT AT THIS LOW DRIFTING NORTHWARD
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN POSSIBLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER, PREDICTABILITY IN THIS
SETUP IS LOWER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A LACK OF STEERING FLOW UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF, DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FROM NWP GUIDANCE TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TOWARD A
MORE PESSIMISTIC (I.E., CLOUDY AND RAINY) FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK. CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE DELMARVA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS ADVERTISED THRU THE END OF THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS HAVE STARTED TO FALL TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO REMAIN DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
BRIEF PERIODS WHERE SKIES SCATTER OUT. WITH LIGHT WINDS, WITH A
SLIGHT EASTERLY FLOW, EXPECT THE DOWNWARD TREND TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS.

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR CLOSE TO THE
SHORE. THIS WAS PLACED IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR KACY. SHOULD RAIN
OCCUR AT ANY TERMINALS, THE CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WOULD
INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SLOW RECOVERY BACK TO VFR WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND A GRADUAL SWITCH IN WINDS TO SW. IT IS LIKELY THAT MOST SITES
WILL BE BACK TO VFR 14Z- 16Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE TERMINALS. SCT SHRA ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND
SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA.

MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE SURGE. STRATOCU FAVORED IN
THIS SETUP, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS FOR PHILLY
TERMINALS NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FLAG OUT PRESENTLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE EXTENDED
IN TIME...SINCE THE APPROACHING LOW WILL NOT DO ANYTHING TO REDUCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED SEAS. WE WILL ADD THE NRN-MOST COASTAL
ZONE TO THE MIX THIS EVENING...WHEN THE HIGHER SEAS WILL (PROBABLY)
ARRIVE THERE. THE SCA FLAG WILL CONTINUE THRU NOON SUNDAY. BY THEN
THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED
ACROSS THE WATERS. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NW. POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SEAS INCREASE TO 4-6 FT IN THE ATLANTIC
JUST OFF THE DE/NJ COAST DURING THIS TIME. OPTED TO HOLD OF ON
ISSUING A SCA WITH ANOTHER SCA IN EFFECT THRU NOON SUNDAY AND A LULL
IN SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR 6-12 HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 210438
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1238 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.

SOME SHOWERS ARE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND ARE MOVING NORTHWARD. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS, BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. DON`T EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO MAKE IT
TOO FAR INLAND AT THIS POINT AS THE FEATURE THEY ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH IS STILL PRETTY FAR AWAY. IN ADDITION, WHERE RAIN FALLS WE
WILL SEE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

WINDS HAVE GONE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST LOCATIONS AND WHERE
WIND EXISTS, IT WILL BE LIGHT OUR OF THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND DEWPOINTS ARE
CREEPING UP INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY WE WILL SEE TEMPS IN TO
EH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TONIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE IS
SHOWN MOVING UP ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY WHILE A SECOND LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADS TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. A
COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE SECOND LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FIRST LOW...NEAR
THE SHORE AREAS EARLY...THEN WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN/WRN
AREAS LATE. IT WILL LIKELY BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY AND
SOME MORNING FOG MAY BE SLOW TO BURN OFF. LIMITED SUN WILL BE
ENOUGH TO BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY...THEN FAVOR A SRLY/SWRLY
DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FROPA OCCURRING DURING
THE EVENING WEST OF I-95 AND OVERNIGHT FARTHER TO THE EAST. EXPECT
TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAK TRAVERSES
THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT APPROACHES THE
EASTERN SEABOARD, BUT AMPLIFICATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TOO LATE
FOR DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OR ATLANTIC TO REACH
OUR AREA IN TIME. THE FORECAST PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM 12Z
GFS/NAM AND 09Z SREF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER INSTABILITY. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP TO BE
PARTICULARLY HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD UNDER THIS SETUP.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ON MONDAY IN A TIMELY FASHION FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF AUTUMN. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 60F IN THE
POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NJ. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIER OF THE CWA.
MODELS OFTEN UNDER DO THE POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING
SIGNIFICANT CAA REGIMES.

A QUIET WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THIS TIME. A CUTOFF LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE WAS SOME HINT AT THIS LOW DRIFTING NORTHWARD
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN POSSIBLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER, PREDICTABILITY IN THIS
SETUP IS LOWER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A LACK OF STEERING FLOW UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF, DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FROM NWP GUIDANCE TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TOWARD A
MORE PESSIMISTIC (I.E., CLOUDY AND RAINY) FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK. CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE DELMARVA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS ADVERTISED THRU THE END OF THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS HAVE STARTED TO FALL TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO REMAIN DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
BRIEF PERIODS WHERE SKIES SCATTER OUT. WITH LIGHT WINDS, WITH A
SLIGHT EASTERLY FLOW, EXPECT THE DOWNWARD TREND TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS.

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR CLOSE TO THE
SHORE. THIS WAS PLACED IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR KACY. SHOULD RAIN
OCCUR AT ANY TERMINALS, THE CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WOULD
INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SLOW RECOVERY BACK TO VFR WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND A GRADUAL SWITCH IN WINDS TO SW. IT IS LIKELY THAT MOST SITES
WILL BE BACK TO VFR 14Z- 16Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE TERMINALS. SCT SHRA ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND
SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA.

MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE SURGE. STRATOCU FAVORED IN
THIS SETUP, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS FOR PHILLY
TERMINALS NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FLAG OUT PRESENTLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE EXTENDED
IN TIME...SINCE THE APPROACHING LOW WILL NOT DO ANYTHING TO REDUCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED SEAS. WE WILL ADD THE NRN-MOST COASTAL
ZONE TO THE MIX THIS EVENING...WHEN THE HIGHER SEAS WILL (PROBABLY)
ARRIVE THERE. THE SCA FLAG WILL CONTINUE THRU NOON SUNDAY. BY THEN
THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED
ACROSS THE WATERS. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NW. POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SEAS INCREASE TO 4-6 FT IN THE ATLANTIC
JUST OFF THE DE/NJ COAST DURING THIS TIME. OPTED TO HOLD OF ON
ISSUING A SCA WITH ANOTHER SCA IN EFFECT THRU NOON SUNDAY AND A LULL
IN SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR 6-12 HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 210438
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1238 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH SUNDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH
THE MID- ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN
FROM THE MIDWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
LOW CLOUDS HAVE STARTED TO PUSH IN ACROSS THE REGION AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING.

SOME SHOWERS ARE LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE AND ARE MOVING NORTHWARD. A
FEW SHOWERS MAY MOVE OVER THE COASTAL AREAS, BRINGING A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN TO THE AREA. DON`T EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO MAKE IT
TOO FAR INLAND AT THIS POINT AS THE FEATURE THEY ARE ASSOCIATED
WITH IS STILL PRETTY FAR AWAY. IN ADDITION, WHERE RAIN FALLS WE
WILL SEE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SOME FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

WINDS HAVE GONE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT MOST LOCATIONS AND WHERE
WIND EXISTS, IT WILL BE LIGHT OUR OF THE EAST OR SOUTHEAST.
MOISTURE HAS INCREASED THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND DEWPOINTS ARE
CREEPING UP INTO THE 60S ACROSS THE AREA.

WITH CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION, TEMPERATURES WILL
BE ON THE WARMER SIDE OVERNIGHT. GENERALLY WE WILL SEE TEMPS IN TO
EH UPPER 50S TO MID 60S ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SOME COOLER TEMPS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TONIGHT/... LOW PRESSURE IS
SHOWN MOVING UP ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY WHILE A SECOND LOW MOVES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADS TOWARD THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. A
COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE SECOND LOW WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST
DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH THE FIRST LOW...NEAR
THE SHORE AREAS EARLY...THEN WITH THE COLD FRONT OVER THE NRN/WRN
AREAS LATE. IT WILL LIKELY BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY START TO THE DAY AND
SOME MORNING FOG MAY BE SLOW TO BURN OFF. LIMITED SUN WILL BE
ENOUGH TO BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S IN MOST
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY...THEN FAVOR A SRLY/SWRLY
DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FROPA OCCURRING DURING
THE EVENING WEST OF I-95 AND OVERNIGHT FARTHER TO THE EAST. EXPECT
TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAK TRAVERSES
THE AREA. THE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT APPROACHES THE
EASTERN SEABOARD, BUT AMPLIFICATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TOO LATE
FOR DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OR ATLANTIC TO REACH
OUR AREA IN TIME. THE FORECAST PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM 12Z
GFS/NAM AND 09Z SREF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK
LAPSE RATES AND MEAGER INSTABILITY. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP TO BE
PARTICULARLY HEAVY OR WIDESPREAD UNDER THIS SETUP.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ON MONDAY IN A TIMELY FASHION FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF AUTUMN. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 60F IN THE
POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NJ. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIER OF THE CWA.
MODELS OFTEN UNDER DO THE POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING
SIGNIFICANT CAA REGIMES.

A QUIET WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THIS TIME. A CUTOFF LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE WAS SOME HINT AT THIS LOW DRIFTING NORTHWARD
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN POSSIBLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER, PREDICTABILITY IN THIS
SETUP IS LOWER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A LACK OF STEERING FLOW UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF, DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FROM NWP GUIDANCE TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TOWARD A
MORE PESSIMISTIC (I.E., CLOUDY AND RAINY) FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK. CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE DELMARVA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS ADVERTISED THRU THE END OF THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS HAVE STARTED TO FALL TO MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS. EXPECT
CEILINGS TO REMAIN DOWN THROUGH THE NIGHT, ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE
BRIEF PERIODS WHERE SKIES SCATTER OUT. WITH LIGHT WINDS, WITH A
SLIGHT EASTERLY FLOW, EXPECT THE DOWNWARD TREND TO CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TERMINALS.

SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR CLOSE TO THE
SHORE. THIS WAS PLACED IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR KACY. SHOULD RAIN
OCCUR AT ANY TERMINALS, THE CHANCE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT WOULD
INCREASE OVERNIGHT.

SUNDAY...SLOW RECOVERY BACK TO VFR WITH AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
AND A GRADUAL SWITCH IN WINDS TO SW. IT IS LIKELY THAT MOST SITES
WILL BE BACK TO VFR 14Z- 16Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE TERMINALS. SCT SHRA ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND
SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA.

MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE SURGE. STRATOCU FAVORED IN
THIS SETUP, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS FOR PHILLY
TERMINALS NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FLAG OUT PRESENTLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE EXTENDED
IN TIME...SINCE THE APPROACHING LOW WILL NOT DO ANYTHING TO REDUCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED SEAS. WE WILL ADD THE NRN-MOST COASTAL
ZONE TO THE MIX THIS EVENING...WHEN THE HIGHER SEAS WILL (PROBABLY)
ARRIVE THERE. THE SCA FLAG WILL CONTINUE THRU NOON SUNDAY. BY THEN
THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED
ACROSS THE WATERS. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NW. POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SEAS INCREASE TO 4-6 FT IN THE ATLANTIC
JUST OFF THE DE/NJ COAST DURING THIS TIME. OPTED TO HOLD OF ON
ISSUING A SCA WITH ANOTHER SCA IN EFFECT THRU NOON SUNDAY AND A LULL
IN SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR 6-12 HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/MEOLA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 210141
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY, HAVE DECREASED SKY COVER OVER
ALL BUT THE EXTREME SE WHERE IT IS STILL CLEAR. STILL EXPECT LOW
CLOUDS TO FORM LATER TONIGHT IN TE ONSHORE FLOW, BUT VERY LITTLE
IS OUT THERE NOW. ALSO, LATEST RADAR SHOWED SOME PRECIP OFF THE
CST BUT NOTHING INLAND SO HAVE MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD
ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS ALONG THE WRN PERIPHERY OF WHERE WE HAD POPS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THEM NOT MAKING IT VERY FAR INLAND.

A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND ALONG WITH THAT COMES THE HIGHER DEW
POINTS AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES. ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL BE
LIMITED TO NJ AND ERN/SRN DELAWARE WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS. THE LOW WILL CREATE
AN ENHANCED WIND GRADIENT ACROSS THESE AREAS. POPS WILL BE A THE
CHC RANGE ACROSS THESE AREAS...AND IT WOULD BE HIGHER...BUT THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE OFFSHORE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS OTHER AREAS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NJ AND
THE DELMARVA LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS SHOWN MOVING UP ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY WHILE A
SECOND LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADS TOWARD THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE SECOND LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE FIRST LOW...NEAR THE SHORE AREAS EARLY...THEN WITH THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE NRN/WRN AREAS LATE. IT WILL LIKELY BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY
START TO THE DAY AND SOME MORNING FOG MAY BE SLOW TO BURN OFF.
LIMITED SUN WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S IN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY...THEN FAVOR A
SRLY/SWRLY DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FROPA OCCURRING DURING
THE EVENING WEST OF I-95 AND OVERNIGHT FARTHER TO THE EAST. EXPECT
TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAK TRAVERSES THE
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, BUT AMPLIFICATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TOO LATE FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OR ATLANTIC TO REACH OUR AREA IN
TIME. THE FORECAST PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM 12Z GFS/NAM AND 09Z
SREF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
MEAGER INSTABILITY. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY OR
WIDESPREAD UNDER THIS SETUP.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ON MONDAY IN A TIMELY FASHION FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF AUTUMN. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 60F IN THE
POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NJ. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIER OF THE CWA.
MODELS OFTEN UNDER DO THE POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING
SIGNIFICANT CAA REGIMES.

A QUIET WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THIS TIME. A CUTOFF LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE WAS SOME HINT AT THIS LOW DRIFTING NORTHWARD
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN POSSIBLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER, PREDICTABILITY IN THIS
SETUP IS LOWER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A LACK OF STEERING FLOW UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF, DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FROM NWP GUIDANCE TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TOWARD A
MORE PESSIMISTIC (I.E., CLOUDY AND RAINY) FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK. CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE DELMARVA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS ADVERTISED THRU THE END OF THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS PREVAIL EVERYWHERE EARLY THIS EVE. KACY HAD SOME BRIEF
MVFR EARLIER AND IT CAN NOT BE RULED OUT AGAIN, BUT THE OVERALL
TREND IS DOWNWARD AS THE ONSHORE FLOW FAVORS A SLOW LOWERING OF CIGS
AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE
MAY OCCUR CLOSE TO THE SHORE. THIS WAS PLACED IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR
KACY. SUNDAY...SLOW RECOVERY BACK TO VFR WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT AND A GRADUAL SWITCH IN WINDS TO SW. IT IS LIKELY THAT MOST
SITES WILL BE BACK TO VFR 14Z- 16Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE TERMINALS. SCT SHRA ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND
SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA.

MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE SURGE. STRATOCU FAVORED IN
THIS SETUP, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS FOR PHILLY
TERMINALS NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FLAG OUT PRESENTLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE EXTENDED
IN TIME...SINCE THE APPROACHING LOW WILL NOT DO ANYTHING TO REDUCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED SEAS. WE WILL ADD THE NRN-MOST COASTAL
ZONE TO THE MIX THIS EVENING...WHEN THE HIGHER SEAS WILL (PROBABLY)
ARRIVE THERE. THE SCA FLAG WILL CONTINUE THRU NOON SUNDAY. BY THEN
THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED
ACROSS THE WATERS. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NW. POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SEAS INCREASE TO 4-6 FT IN THE ATLANTIC
JUST OFF THE DE/NJ COAST DURING THIS TIME. OPTED TO HOLD OF ON
ISSUING A SCA WITH ANOTHER SCA IN EFFECT THRU NOON SUNDAY AND A LULL
IN SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR 6-12 HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK FOR ENHANCED RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
THE DECENT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201938
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND ALONG WITH THAT COMES THE HIGHER DEW
POINTS AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES. ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL BE
LIMITED TO NJ AND ERN/SRN DELAWARE WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS. THE LOW WILL CREATE
AN ENHANCED WIND GRADIENT ACROSS THESE AREAS. POPS WILL BE A THE
CHC RANGE ACROSS THESE AREAS...AND IT WOULD BE HIGHER...BUT THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE OFFSHORE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS OTHER AREAS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NJ AND
THE DELMARVA LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS SHOWN MOVING UP ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY WHILE A
SECOND LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADS TOWARD THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE SECOND LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE FIRST LOW...NEAR THE SHORE AREAS EARLY...THEN WITH THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE NRN/WRN AREAS LATE. IT WILL LIKELY BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY
START TO THE DAY AND SOME MORNING FOG MAY BE SLOW TO BURN OFF.
LIMITED SUN WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S IN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY...THEN FAVOR A
SRLY/SWRLY DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FROPA OCCURRING DURING
THE EVENING WEST OF I-95 AND OVERNIGHT FARTHER TO THE EAST. EXPECT
TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAK TRAVERSES THE
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, BUT AMPLIFICATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TOO LATE FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OR ATLANTIC TO REACH OUR AREA IN
TIME. THE FORECAST PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM 12Z GFS/NAM AND 09Z
SREF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
MEAGER INSTABILITY. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY OR
WIDESPREAD UNDER THIS SETUP.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ON MONDAY IN A TIMELY FASHION FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF AUTUMN. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 60F IN THE
POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NJ. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIER OF THE CWA.
MODELS OFTEN UNDER DO THE POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING
SIGNIFICANT CAA REGIMES.

A QUIET WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THIS TIME. A CUTOFF LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE WAS SOME HINT AT THIS LOW DRIFTING NORTHWARD
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN POSSIBLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER, PREDICTABILITY IN THIS
SETUP IS LOWER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A LACK OF STEERING FLOW UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF, DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FROM NWP GUIDANCE TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TOWARD A
MORE PESSIMISTIC (I.E., CLOUDY AND RAINY) FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK. CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE DELMARVA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS ADVERTISED THRU THE END OF THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE MOST PART THIS
AFTERNOON. WHEN THE DIURNAL CU KICKED IN...A FEW SHORT PERIODS OF
MVFR WERE OBSERVED...AND THIS COULD STILL HAPPEN AGAIN EARLY...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART VFR SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. A FEW WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE DELMARVA OR SE NJ LATER...BUT
THEY WERE NOT PUT IN THE TAFS WITH CONFIDENCE IN THIS RATHER LOW.

TONIGHT...THE CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND WITH A BLEND
OF THE PREVIOUS TAFS AND THE PRESENT GUIDANCE...WE HAVE FAVORED A
SLOW LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OR PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR CLOSE TO THE SHORE. THIS WAS PLACED IN A
TEMPO GROUP FOR KACY. SUNDAY...SLOW RECOVERY BACK TO VFR WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND A GRADUAL SWITCH IN WINDS TO SW. IT IS
LIKELY THAT MOST SITES WILL BE BACK TO VFR 14Z-16Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE TERMINALS. SCT SHRA ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND
SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA.

MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE SURGE. STRATOCU FAVORED IN
THIS SETUP, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS FOR PHILLY
TERMINALS NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FLAG OUT PRESENTLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE EXTENDED
IN TIME...SINCE THE APPROACHING LOW WILL NOT DO ANYTHING TO REDUCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED SEAS. WE WILL ADD THE NRN-MOST COASTAL
ZONE TO THE MIX THIS EVENING...WHEN THE HIGHER SEAS WILL (PROBABLY)
ARRIVE THERE. THE SCA FLAG WILL CONTINUE THRU NOON SUNDAY. BY THEN
THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED
ACROSS THE WATERS. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NW. POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SEAS INCREASE TO 4-6 FT IN THE ATLANTIC
JUST OFF THE DE/NJ COAST DURING THIS TIME. OPTED TO HOLD OF ON
ISSUING A SCA WITH ANOTHER SCA IN EFFECT THRU NOON SUNDAY AND A LULL
IN SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR 6-12 HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK FOR ENHANCED RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
THE DECENT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 201938
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC STATES SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
MIDWEST EARLY IN THE WEEK WILL PERSIST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A WEAKENING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE
ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND ALONG WITH THAT COMES THE HIGHER DEW
POINTS AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES. ANY PRECIPITATION TONIGHT WILL BE
LIMITED TO NJ AND ERN/SRN DELAWARE WHICH WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DEVELOPING LOW OFF THE CAROLINA COASTAL AREAS. THE LOW WILL CREATE
AN ENHANCED WIND GRADIENT ACROSS THESE AREAS. POPS WILL BE A THE
CHC RANGE ACROSS THESE AREAS...AND IT WOULD BE HIGHER...BUT THE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NE OFFSHORE. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL BE
MILDER THAN RECENT NIGHTS WITH LOWS IN THE MID/UPPER 50S NORTH AND
LOW/MID 60S ACROSS OTHER AREAS. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP ACROSS NJ AND
THE DELMARVA LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE IS SHOWN MOVING UP ALONG THE COAST SUNDAY WHILE A
SECOND LOW MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND HEADS TOWARD THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT ATTACHED TO THE SECOND LOW WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS WILL OCCUR WITH
THE FIRST LOW...NEAR THE SHORE AREAS EARLY...THEN WITH THE COLD
FRONT OVER THE NRN/WRN AREAS LATE. IT WILL LIKELY BE A MOSTLY CLOUDY
START TO THE DAY AND SOME MORNING FOG MAY BE SLOW TO BURN OFF.
LIMITED SUN WILL BE ENOUGH TO BRING TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S
TO LOW 80S IN MOST AREAS. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT EARLY...THEN FAVOR A
SRLY/SWRLY DIRECTION AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF FROPA OCCURRING DURING
THE EVENING WEST OF I-95 AND OVERNIGHT FARTHER TO THE EAST. EXPECT
TO SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA AS FORCING FOR
ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AND JET STREAK TRAVERSES THE
AREA. THE TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING AS IT APPROACHES THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, BUT AMPLIFICATION IS FORECAST TO OCCUR TOO LATE FOR DEEPER
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO OR ATLANTIC TO REACH OUR AREA IN
TIME. THE FORECAST PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM 12Z GFS/NAM AND 09Z
SREF BUFKIT SOUNDINGS IS CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK LAPSE RATES AND
MEAGER INSTABILITY. DO NOT EXPECT PRECIP TO BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY OR
WIDESPREAD UNDER THIS SETUP.

THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE MIDWEST STATES. NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WILL USHER
IN NOTICEABLY COOLER AND DRIER AIR ON MONDAY IN A TIMELY FASHION FOR
THE FIRST DAY OF AUTUMN. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM NEAR 60F IN THE
POCONOS TO MID 70S IN THE DELMARVA/SOUTHERN NJ. CLOUDS WILL LIMIT
SUNSHINE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIER OF THE CWA.
MODELS OFTEN UNDER DO THE POST-FRONTAL STRATOCU DEVELOPMENT DURING
SIGNIFICANT CAA REGIMES.

A QUIET WX PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN DURING THIS TIME. A CUTOFF LOW
IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE WEEK. THERE WAS SOME HINT AT THIS LOW DRIFTING NORTHWARD
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND THEN POSSIBLY IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK. HOWEVER, PREDICTABILITY IN THIS
SETUP IS LOWER THAN NORMAL DUE TO A LACK OF STEERING FLOW UNDERNEATH
THE RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THE 12Z OPERATIONAL ECMWF, DID NOT HAVE ENOUGH
SUPPORT FROM NWP GUIDANCE TO WARRANT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TOWARD A
MORE PESSIMISTIC (I.E., CLOUDY AND RAINY) FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE
WEEK. CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS TO THE DELMARVA THURSDAY.
OTHERWISE, A DRY FORECAST IS ADVERTISED THRU THE END OF THE
LONG-TERM PERIOD.

NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED EARLY IN THE WEEK
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND CONTINUE THRU THE END OF THE WEEK WITH
PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE ACROSS THE TERMINALS FOR THE MOST PART THIS
AFTERNOON. WHEN THE DIURNAL CU KICKED IN...A FEW SHORT PERIODS OF
MVFR WERE OBSERVED...AND THIS COULD STILL HAPPEN AGAIN EARLY...BUT
FOR THE MOST PART VFR SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING. A FEW WIDELY
SCT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE DELMARVA OR SE NJ LATER...BUT
THEY WERE NOT PUT IN THE TAFS WITH CONFIDENCE IN THIS RATHER LOW.

TONIGHT...THE CONTINUING ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND WITH A BLEND
OF THE PREVIOUS TAFS AND THE PRESENT GUIDANCE...WE HAVE FAVORED A
SLOW LOWERING OF CIGS AND VSBYS IN FOG OVERNIGHT. SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
OR PATCHY DRIZZLE MAY OCCUR CLOSE TO THE SHORE. THIS WAS PLACED IN A
TEMPO GROUP FOR KACY. SUNDAY...SLOW RECOVERY BACK TO VFR WITH AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND A GRADUAL SWITCH IN WINDS TO SW. IT IS
LIKELY THAT MOST SITES WILL BE BACK TO VFR 14Z-16Z.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT MOVES THRU THE TERMINALS. SCT SHRA ALONG
AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT BUT GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WIND
SHIFT FROM SW TO NW WILL OCCUR WITH THE FROPA.

MONDAY...NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY IN
ASSOCIATION WITH POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE SURGE. STRATOCU FAVORED IN
THIS SETUP, WHICH MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD MVFR CIGS FOR PHILLY
TERMINALS NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SCA FLAG OUT PRESENTLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS WILL BE EXTENDED
IN TIME...SINCE THE APPROACHING LOW WILL NOT DO ANYTHING TO REDUCE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ENHANCED SEAS. WE WILL ADD THE NRN-MOST COASTAL
ZONE TO THE MIX THIS EVENING...WHEN THE HIGHER SEAS WILL (PROBABLY)
ARRIVE THERE. THE SCA FLAG WILL CONTINUE THRU NOON SUNDAY. BY THEN
THE BEST PRESSURE GRADIENT WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW WILL HAVE WEAKENED
ACROSS THE WATERS. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AND EARLY
SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU THE WATERS
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE
NW. POST-FRONTAL NW WINDS OF 15-20 KT GENERALLY EXPECTED BUT CANNOT
RULE OUT LOCALLY STRONGER GUSTS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SHOWS SEAS INCREASE TO 4-6 FT IN THE ATLANTIC
JUST OFF THE DE/NJ COAST DURING THIS TIME. OPTED TO HOLD OF ON
ISSUING A SCA WITH ANOTHER SCA IN EFFECT THRU NOON SUNDAY AND A LULL
IN SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR 6-12 HOURS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK FOR ENHANCED RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT AS
THE DECENT ONSHORE FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EDT
     SUNDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201502
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1102 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AT THE
SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES,
WILL TRACK EAST AND PASS OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF CLOUDS...ONE ACROSS THE WRN/NRN PARTS OF THE
AREA AND THE OTHER OFF THE SOUTH/EAST COASTAL AREAS...ARE BECOMING
LESS DEFINED AS DIURNAL CU IS FILLING IN BETWEEN THE TWO. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY HAVE THE UPPER HAND THIS AFTERNOON AS A MOSTLY ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TEMP/DEW
POINTS SINCE CONDITIONS LOOK MOSTLY ON-TRACK.

THE ONLY CHC FOR SOME PRECIP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE ACROSS
THE SRN NJ AND DE COASTAL AREAS WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO
REACH THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT, FOR THE MOST PART, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OFFSHORE AND WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. IN ANY
EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL START TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL
AS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. EXPECT LOWS TO REMAIN UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA AND MAINLY AROUND 60 INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE FEATURES...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE BROAD, STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC, THEN TO DOWN EAST MAINE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION...ONLY ONE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ISSUANCE,
AND THAT`S WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES...AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED LATER IN THE
WEEK.

WINDS...OTHER THAN SOME BREEZY NORTH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IMPACTS...EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYNESS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS...A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KABE AND KILG HAVE MIXED OUT. THE
DIURNAL CU MAY OCNLY BE HIGH-END MVFR...BUT WE WILL WAIT TO SEE
HOW THINGS SETTLE BEFORE COMMITTING TO BKN MVFR FOR ANY LONGER
PERIODS OF TIME.

TONIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH IFR, POSSIBLY SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS, POSSIBLE AS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG OR STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY ON
SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MID AFTERNOON. LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUR TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY...LESS WIND ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR OCEAN FRONT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE AND THE DELAWARE
BAY ARE CURRENTLY HEADLINE FREE.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL 15
TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 TO 6
FEET ON THE OCEAN WITH HIGHER SEAS TO THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL START TO
INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET EXPECTED AND SHORT PERIOD SWELLS,
IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE NJ COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...MEOLA/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
MARINE...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 201502
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1102 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AT THE
SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES,
WILL TRACK EAST AND PASS OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TWO SEPARATE AREAS OF CLOUDS...ONE ACROSS THE WRN/NRN PARTS OF THE
AREA AND THE OTHER OFF THE SOUTH/EAST COASTAL AREAS...ARE BECOMING
LESS DEFINED AS DIURNAL CU IS FILLING IN BETWEEN THE TWO. CLOUDS
WILL LIKELY HAVE THE UPPER HAND THIS AFTERNOON AS A MOSTLY ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES. WE HAVE ONLY MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO TEMP/DEW
POINTS SINCE CONDITIONS LOOK MOSTLY ON-TRACK.

THE ONLY CHC FOR SOME PRECIP LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BE ACROSS
THE SRN NJ AND DE COASTAL AREAS WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
MAY OCCUR LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO
REACH THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT, FOR THE MOST PART, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OFFSHORE AND WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. IN ANY
EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL START TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL
AS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. EXPECT LOWS TO REMAIN UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA AND MAINLY AROUND 60 INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE FEATURES...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE BROAD, STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC, THEN TO DOWN EAST MAINE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION...ONLY ONE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ISSUANCE,
AND THAT`S WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES...AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED LATER IN THE
WEEK.

WINDS...OTHER THAN SOME BREEZY NORTH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IMPACTS...EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYNESS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS AT THE TERMINALS...A FEW
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AT KABE AND KILG HAVE MIXED OUT. THE
DIURNAL CU MAY OCNLY BE HIGH-END MVFR...BUT WE WILL WAIT TO SEE
HOW THINGS SETTLE BEFORE COMMITTING TO BKN MVFR FOR ANY LONGER
PERIODS OF TIME.

TONIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH IFR, POSSIBLY SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS, POSSIBLE AS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG OR STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY ON
SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MID AFTERNOON. LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUR TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY...LESS WIND ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR OCEAN FRONT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE AND THE DELAWARE
BAY ARE CURRENTLY HEADLINE FREE.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL 15
TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 TO 6
FEET ON THE OCEAN WITH HIGHER SEAS TO THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL START TO
INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET EXPECTED AND SHORT PERIOD SWELLS,
IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE NJ COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...MEOLA/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
MARINE...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201107
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
707 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AT THE
SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES,
WILL TRACK EAST AND PASS OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL START TO GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS, A LOW BRINGING A COLD FRONT IN FROM THE WEST AND A
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY PUSH UP THE CAROLINA COAST.

LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY START TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW LONG
THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND COMBINED WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, AS
OPPOSED TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS WE HEAD INTO FALL, WE START TO
LOSE THAT STRONG SUN ANGLE AND IT TAKES LONGER FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO BREAK UP. WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AND INCREASING
MOISTURE, IT MAY TAKE A WHILE BEFORE WE SEE SOME BLUE PEEKING OUT IN
THE SKY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. IN ADDITION, THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO TAP INTO QUITE AS MUCH WARM AIR
AND COULD CERTAINLY LIMIT THE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, THE SUN
IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO WARM THE SURFACE SHOULD WE BE ABLE TO
BREAK OUT. AREAS THAT SEE MORE SUN WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE. IN
GENERAL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO
REACH THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT, FOR THE MOST PART, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OFFSHORE AND WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. IN ANY
EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL START TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL
AS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. EXPECT LOWS TO REMAIN UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA AND MAINLY AROUND 60 INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE FEATURES...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE BROAD, STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC, THEN TO DOWN EAST MAINE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION...ONLY ONE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ISSUANCE,
AND THAT`S WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES...AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED LATER IN THE
WEEK.

WINDS...OTHER THAN SOME BREEZY NORTH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IMPACTS...EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYNESS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN HANGING AROUND, MAINLY WEST OF
KPHL, THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND A BIT. FINALLY
STARTING TO BREAK UP BETWEEN 14-17Z. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT JUST
HOW LONG WE HOLD ONTO THE LOWER CEILINGS, AS THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE
SUN ANGLE ISN`T AS HIGH. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP A BIT OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST BY AROUND 15Z. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS, WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 18KT POSSIBLE. A BRIEF SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL.

TONIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH IFR, POSSIBLY SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS, POSSIBLE AS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG OR STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY ON
SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MID AFTERNOON. LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUR TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY...LESS WIND ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR OCEAN FRONT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE AND THE DELAWARE
BAY ARE CURRENTLY HEADLINE FREE.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL 15
TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 TO 6
FEET ON THE OCEAN WITH HIGHER SEAS TO THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL START TO
INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET EXPECTED AND SHORT PERIOD SWELLS,
IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE NJ COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
MARINE...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201107
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
707 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AT THE
SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES,
WILL TRACK EAST AND PASS OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL START TO GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS, A LOW BRINGING A COLD FRONT IN FROM THE WEST AND A
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY PUSH UP THE CAROLINA COAST.

LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY START TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW LONG
THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND COMBINED WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, AS
OPPOSED TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS WE HEAD INTO FALL, WE START TO
LOSE THAT STRONG SUN ANGLE AND IT TAKES LONGER FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO BREAK UP. WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AND INCREASING
MOISTURE, IT MAY TAKE A WHILE BEFORE WE SEE SOME BLUE PEEKING OUT IN
THE SKY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. IN ADDITION, THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO TAP INTO QUITE AS MUCH WARM AIR
AND COULD CERTAINLY LIMIT THE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, THE SUN
IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO WARM THE SURFACE SHOULD WE BE ABLE TO
BREAK OUT. AREAS THAT SEE MORE SUN WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE. IN
GENERAL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO
REACH THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT, FOR THE MOST PART, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OFFSHORE AND WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. IN ANY
EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL START TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL
AS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. EXPECT LOWS TO REMAIN UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA AND MAINLY AROUND 60 INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE FEATURES...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE BROAD, STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC, THEN TO DOWN EAST MAINE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION...ONLY ONE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ISSUANCE,
AND THAT`S WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES...AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED LATER IN THE
WEEK.

WINDS...OTHER THAN SOME BREEZY NORTH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IMPACTS...EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYNESS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS HAVE BEEN HANGING AROUND, MAINLY WEST OF
KPHL, THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO HANG AROUND A BIT. FINALLY
STARTING TO BREAK UP BETWEEN 14-17Z. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT JUST
HOW LONG WE HOLD ONTO THE LOWER CEILINGS, AS THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE
SUN ANGLE ISN`T AS HIGH. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP A BIT OUT OF
THE SOUTHEAST BY AROUND 15Z. WINDS WILL BE AROUND 10 KNOTS, WITH A
FEW GUSTS UP TO 18KT POSSIBLE. A BRIEF SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE,
MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL.

TONIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH IFR, POSSIBLY SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS, POSSIBLE AS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG OR STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY ON
SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MID AFTERNOON. LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUR TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY...LESS WIND ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR OCEAN FRONT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE AND THE DELAWARE
BAY ARE CURRENTLY HEADLINE FREE.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL 15
TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 TO 6
FEET ON THE OCEAN WITH HIGHER SEAS TO THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL START TO
INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET EXPECTED AND SHORT PERIOD SWELLS,
IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE NJ COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
MARINE...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 200757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AT THE
SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES,
WILL TRACK EAST AND PASS OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL START TO GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS, A LOW BRINGING A COLD FRONT IN FROM THE WEST AND A
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY PUSH UP THE CAROLINA COAST.

LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY START TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW LONG
THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND COMBINED WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, AS
OPPOSED TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS WE HEAD INTO FALL, WE START TO
LOSE THAT STRONG SUN ANGLE AND IT TAKES LONGER FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO BREAK UP. WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AND INCREASING
MOISTURE, IT MAY TAKE A WHILE BEFORE WE SEE SOME BLUE PEEKING OUT IN
THE SKY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. IN ADDITION, THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO TAP INTO QUITE AS MUCH WARM AIR
AND COULD CERTAINLY LIMIT THE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, THE SUN
IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO WARM THE SURFACE SHOULD WE BE ABLE TO
BREAK OUT. AREAS THAT SEE MORE SUN WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE. IN
GENERAL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO
REACH THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT, FOR THE MOST PART, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OFFSHORE AND WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. IN ANY
EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL START TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL
AS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. EXPECT LOWS TO REMAIN UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA AND MAINLY AROUND 60 INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE FEATURES...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE BROAD, STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC, THEN TO DOWN EAST MAINE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION...ONLY ONE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ISSUANCE,
AND THAT`S WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES...AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED LATER IN THE
WEEK.

WINDS...OTHER THAN SOME BREEZY NORTH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IMPACTS...EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYNESS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH THIS MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS ARE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
AND ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. WE
ARE SEEING CEILINGS BOUNCE UP AND DOWN BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. A COUPLE LOCALES MAY DROP TO IFR FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING BEFORE CEILINGS START TO LIFT.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT DROP TOO MUCH IN THE STRATOCU BUT A FEW
SPOTS MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS WILL HANG AROUND A BIT, FINALLY STARTING
TO BREAK UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT JUST HOW
LONG WE HOLD ONTO THE LOWER CEILINGS AS THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE SUN
ANGLE ISN`T AS HIGH. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP A BIT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. A BRIEF SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF KPHL.

TONIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH IFR, POSSIBLY SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS, POSSIBLE AS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG OR STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY ON
SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MID AFTERNOON. LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUR TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY...LESS WIND ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR OCEAN FRONT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE AND THE DELAWARE
BAY ARE CURRENTLY HEADLINE FREE.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL 15
TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 TO 6
FEET ON THE OCEAN WITH HIGHER SEAS TO THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL START TO
INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET EXPECTED AND SHORT PERIOD SWELLS,
IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE NJ COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
MARINE...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AT THE
SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES,
WILL TRACK EAST AND PASS OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL START TO GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS, A LOW BRINGING A COLD FRONT IN FROM THE WEST AND A
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY PUSH UP THE CAROLINA COAST.

LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY START TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW LONG
THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND COMBINED WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, AS
OPPOSED TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS WE HEAD INTO FALL, WE START TO
LOSE THAT STRONG SUN ANGLE AND IT TAKES LONGER FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO BREAK UP. WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AND INCREASING
MOISTURE, IT MAY TAKE A WHILE BEFORE WE SEE SOME BLUE PEEKING OUT IN
THE SKY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. IN ADDITION, THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO TAP INTO QUITE AS MUCH WARM AIR
AND COULD CERTAINLY LIMIT THE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, THE SUN
IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO WARM THE SURFACE SHOULD WE BE ABLE TO
BREAK OUT. AREAS THAT SEE MORE SUN WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE. IN
GENERAL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO
REACH THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT, FOR THE MOST PART, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OFFSHORE AND WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. IN ANY
EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL START TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL
AS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. EXPECT LOWS TO REMAIN UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA AND MAINLY AROUND 60 INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE FEATURES...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE BROAD, STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC, THEN TO DOWN EAST MAINE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION...ONLY ONE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ISSUANCE,
AND THAT`S WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES...AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED LATER IN THE
WEEK.

WINDS...OTHER THAN SOME BREEZY NORTH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IMPACTS...EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYNESS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH THIS MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS ARE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
AND ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. WE
ARE SEEING CEILINGS BOUNCE UP AND DOWN BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. A COUPLE LOCALES MAY DROP TO IFR FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING BEFORE CEILINGS START TO LIFT.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT DROP TOO MUCH IN THE STRATOCU BUT A FEW
SPOTS MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS WILL HANG AROUND A BIT, FINALLY STARTING
TO BREAK UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT JUST HOW
LONG WE HOLD ONTO THE LOWER CEILINGS AS THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE SUN
ANGLE ISN`T AS HIGH. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP A BIT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. A BRIEF SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF KPHL.

TONIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH IFR, POSSIBLY SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS, POSSIBLE AS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG OR STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY ON
SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MID AFTERNOON. LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUR TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY...LESS WIND ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR OCEAN FRONT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE AND THE DELAWARE
BAY ARE CURRENTLY HEADLINE FREE.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL 15
TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 TO 6
FEET ON THE OCEAN WITH HIGHER SEAS TO THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL START TO
INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET EXPECTED AND SHORT PERIOD SWELLS,
IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE NJ COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
MARINE...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AT THE
SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES,
WILL TRACK EAST AND PASS OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL START TO GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS, A LOW BRINGING A COLD FRONT IN FROM THE WEST AND A
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY PUSH UP THE CAROLINA COAST.

LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY START TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW LONG
THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND COMBINED WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, AS
OPPOSED TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS WE HEAD INTO FALL, WE START TO
LOSE THAT STRONG SUN ANGLE AND IT TAKES LONGER FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO BREAK UP. WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AND INCREASING
MOISTURE, IT MAY TAKE A WHILE BEFORE WE SEE SOME BLUE PEEKING OUT IN
THE SKY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. IN ADDITION, THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO TAP INTO QUITE AS MUCH WARM AIR
AND COULD CERTAINLY LIMIT THE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, THE SUN
IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO WARM THE SURFACE SHOULD WE BE ABLE TO
BREAK OUT. AREAS THAT SEE MORE SUN WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE. IN
GENERAL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO
REACH THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT, FOR THE MOST PART, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OFFSHORE AND WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. IN ANY
EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL START TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL
AS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. EXPECT LOWS TO REMAIN UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA AND MAINLY AROUND 60 INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE FEATURES...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE BROAD, STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC, THEN TO DOWN EAST MAINE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION...ONLY ONE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ISSUANCE,
AND THAT`S WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES...AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED LATER IN THE
WEEK.

WINDS...OTHER THAN SOME BREEZY NORTH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IMPACTS...EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYNESS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH THIS MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS ARE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
AND ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. WE
ARE SEEING CEILINGS BOUNCE UP AND DOWN BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. A COUPLE LOCALES MAY DROP TO IFR FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING BEFORE CEILINGS START TO LIFT.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT DROP TOO MUCH IN THE STRATOCU BUT A FEW
SPOTS MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS WILL HANG AROUND A BIT, FINALLY STARTING
TO BREAK UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT JUST HOW
LONG WE HOLD ONTO THE LOWER CEILINGS AS THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE SUN
ANGLE ISN`T AS HIGH. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP A BIT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. A BRIEF SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF KPHL.

TONIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH IFR, POSSIBLY SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS, POSSIBLE AS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG OR STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY ON
SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MID AFTERNOON. LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUR TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY...LESS WIND ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR OCEAN FRONT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE AND THE DELAWARE
BAY ARE CURRENTLY HEADLINE FREE.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL 15
TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 TO 6
FEET ON THE OCEAN WITH HIGHER SEAS TO THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL START TO
INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET EXPECTED AND SHORT PERIOD SWELLS,
IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE NJ COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
MARINE...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE OFFSHORE TODAY. THIS WILL ALLOW
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO RIDE UP THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD. AT THE
SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT, CURRENTLY OVER THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES,
WILL TRACK EAST AND PASS OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS ON
SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST WILL START TO GET SQUEEZED BETWEEN TWO LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS, A LOW BRINGING A COLD FRONT IN FROM THE WEST AND A
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM GRADUALLY PUSH UP THE CAROLINA COAST.

LOW CLOUDS THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY START TO BREAK UP THROUGH THE
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

THE ISSUE WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON JUST HOW LONG
THE CLOUDS HANG AROUND COMBINED WITH A MORE SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW, AS
OPPOSED TO A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. AS WE HEAD INTO FALL, WE START TO
LOSE THAT STRONG SUN ANGLE AND IT TAKES LONGER FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO BREAK UP. WITH AN EASTERLY FLOW IN PLACE AND INCREASING
MOISTURE, IT MAY TAKE A WHILE BEFORE WE SEE SOME BLUE PEEKING OUT IN
THE SKY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS. IN ADDITION, THE
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WON`T BE ABLE TO TAP INTO QUITE AS MUCH WARM AIR
AND COULD CERTAINLY LIMIT THE MAX TEMPS FOR TODAY. HOWEVER, THE SUN
IS STILL STRONG ENOUGH TO WARM THE SURFACE SHOULD WE BE ABLE TO
BREAK OUT. AREAS THAT SEE MORE SUN WILL WARM UP A BIT MORE. IN
GENERAL, TEMPERATURES WILL BE INTO THE 70S THROUGH MUCH OF THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AND MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL
INCREASE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE TO
REACH THE COAST BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING BUT, FOR THE MOST PART, IT
LOOKS TO REMAIN MORE OFFSHORE AND WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY DRY. IN ANY
EVENT, IT DOES LOOK LIKE SOME STRATUS AND FOG WILL START TO FORM
LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE REGION AS THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES.

WITH PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND, TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL
AS THE PAST COUPLE OF NIGHTS. EXPECT LOWS TO REMAIN UPPER 50S NORTH
AND WEST OF PHILADELPHIA AND MAINLY AROUND 60 INTO THE LOWER 60S
ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SURFACE FEATURES...LOW PRESSURE WILL RIDE OF THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD
ON SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WEST. BY MONDAY MORNING, THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE
OFF THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTS. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN
EXPECTED TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THE HIGH IS
EXPECTED TO BE BROAD, STRETCHING FROM THE PLAINS TO THE EAST COAST.
BY WEDNESDAY, THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC, THEN TO DOWN EAST MAINE ON THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

PRECIPITATION...ONLY ONE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WITH THIS ISSUANCE,
AND THAT`S WITH THE COLD FRONT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES...AT OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY NEAR NORMAL READINGS SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN EXPECTED LATER IN THE
WEEK.

WINDS...OTHER THAN SOME BREEZY NORTH WEST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY, WINDS WILL BE BENIGN THROUGH THE PERIOD.

IMPACTS...EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRYNESS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH THIS MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS ARE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST
AND ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THIS MORNING. WE
ARE SEEING CEILINGS BOUNCE UP AND DOWN BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR AND
EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE. A COUPLE LOCALES MAY DROP TO IFR FOR A
BRIEF PERIOD THIS MORNING BEFORE CEILINGS START TO LIFT.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD NOT DROP TOO MUCH IN THE STRATOCU BUT A FEW
SPOTS MAY SEE SOME MVFR VISIBILITIES THIS MORNING.

TODAY...MVFR CEILINGS WILL HANG AROUND A BIT, FINALLY STARTING
TO BREAK UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT JUST HOW
LONG WE HOLD ONTO THE LOWER CEILINGS AS THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE SUN
ANGLE ISN`T AS HIGH. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP A BIT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. A BRIEF SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF KPHL.

TONIGHT...DETERIORATING CONDITIONS WITH IFR, POSSIBLY SOME LIFR
CONDITIONS, POSSIBLE AS FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. SOME
DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE TOWARD DAYBREAK, MAINLY CLOSER TO THE
COAST. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THROUGH TONIGHT, BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...FOG OR STRATUS POSSIBLE EARLY ON
SUNDAY...THEN MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST THE
MID AFTERNOON. LOWER VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
POSSIBLE IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING DUR TO SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. NORTHWEST
WINDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS ON MONDAY...LESS WIND ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF OUR OCEAN FRONT
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. THE NORTHERNMOST OCEAN ZONE AND THE DELAWARE
BAY ARE CURRENTLY HEADLINE FREE.

THE EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. WINDS WILL 15
TO 20 KNOTS ACROSS THE WATERS. SEAS WILL GENERALLY BE AROUND 4 TO 6
FEET ON THE OCEAN WITH HIGHER SEAS TO THE SOUTH.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...NO HEADLINES EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA
WATERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. WINDS AND WAVES WILL START TO
INCREASE AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE REGION.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WITH WAVE HEIGHTS OF 4 TO 6 FEET EXPECTED AND SHORT PERIOD SWELLS,
IT WILL BE ANOTHER DAY WITH A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG
THE NJ COAST.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KRUZDLO
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...DRAG/KRUZDLO
AVIATION...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
MARINE...KRUZDLO/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 200548
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
148 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO
OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY,
BEFORE THE HIGH FULLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE PUSHING IN FROM THE WEST WITH SOME
PATCHY STRATOCUMULUS MOVING THROUGH OTHER PARTS OF THE AREA.
PATCHY FOG IS STILL POSSIBLE MAINLY NEAR AND NW OF I95.

TEMPERATURES ARE GENERALLY IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S THROUGH THE
REGION AND WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT
FALL ALL THAT MUCH MORE BEFORE SUNRISE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WATERS ON SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE PATTERN IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL ALLOW THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC TO RIDGE BACK
WESTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL PROMOTE WAA IN
THE LOW LEVELS. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS THAT ARE 5-10F
WARMER ON SATURDAY THAN TODAY. SATURDAY MAY POTENTIALLY BE THE FIRST
DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SINCE SEP 11, ALBEIT NOT MUCH MORE THAN
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER INITIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM TRIES TO MIX OUT MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CLOUDS
RATHER QUICKLY (BY 15Z) ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WHILE THE 12Z GFS
INDICATES A MUCH CLOUDIER SOLUTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE FALL LINE
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AS MARINE AIR IS STUBBORN TO MIX OUT. DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS FORECAST BY THE 12Z WOULD INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST WITH THE ONLY
DISCERNIBLE FORCING MECHANISM BEING LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. KEPT
POPS VERY LOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO COASTAL LOCALES SINCE MOISTURE FLUX IF FORECAST TO BE
GREATEST OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST NEAR THE CAROLINA
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND PASS EAST OF OUR AREA, BUT
WILL LIKELY NOT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES IT
NORTHEASTWARD. WE MAY HAVE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE
LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. SO WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR WESTERN AREAS DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE SWEEPING ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF MOSTLY TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY, BEFORE LOWERING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING. SO WE WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS,
DIMINISHING TO LOW END CHANCE SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST DURING THE
DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE LOSE THE INSTABILITY
BEFORE THE ACTIVITY REACHES OUR AREA. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY, BUT FOR NOW THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA. ACTUALLY, THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS
LIKE OUR ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD, SO
LETS HOPE WE GET SOMETHING FROM IT.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL. THEN TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER
TO NORMAL OR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH THIS MORNING...MVFR CEILINGS ARE PUSHING IN FROM THE
WEST AND ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION THROUGH THIS
MORNING. A COUPLE LOCALES MAY DROP TO IFR FOR A PERIOD THIS
MORNING BEFORE CEILINGS START TO LIFT. VISIBILITIES ARE GENERALLY
P6SM AND SHOULD NOT DROP TOO MUCH IN THE STRATOCU.

SATURDAY...MVFR CEILINGS WILL HANG AROUND A BIT, FINALLY STARTING
TO BREAK UP BY EARLY AFTERNOON. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS AT JUST HOW
LONG WE HOLD ONTO THE LOWER CEILINGS AS THIS TIME OF YEAR, THE SUN
ANGLE ISN`T AS HIGH. WINDS WILL START TO PICK UP A BIT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST. A BRIEF SHOWER REMAINS POSSIBLE, MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST
OF KPHL.

SATURDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDS PROBABLE LATER ON WITH STRATUS/FOG
DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR PATCHY LIFR CONDITIONS IN DENSE FOG/STRATUS BY DAYBREAK
SUNDAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING
THE BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN
THE DAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY.
LESS GUSTY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS 44025 AND 44009 HAVE BEEN RESTORED TO SERVICE. THE COMPLETE
RESTORATION OF BUOY 44009 MAY BE DELAYED TIL JANUARY 2015?

EAST WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE BLOWING AT 15 KT ON SATURDAY. SEAS
WILL PROBABLY BE 4 TO 5 FT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE EXCEPTION WE WILL CANCEL THE FAR NNJ WATERS PORTION OF THE
ADVY BY 930 PM TONIGHT.

CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL SEAS AND WIND SCENARIO IS A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXTENDED AS SEAS
LOOK TO LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER IN
THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASING WINDS. WINDS AND WAVES MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING..

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND STAY BELOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE CONTINUED THE MDT RISK FOR FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ON SATURDAY FOR NJ. WE ARE USING 4 FT 7 SECONDS. THIS
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY MAY NEED FURTHER ADJUSTMENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...DRAG/KLEIN
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...









000
FXUS61 KPHI 200109
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
909 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO
OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY,
BEFORE THE HIGH FULLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ESTF FOR 930 PM UPDATE: PATCHES OF SC SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT IN THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AND FORMED/REFORMED JUST BELOW
THE INVERSION NEAR 3000 FT. TIMING WHEN THIS HAPPENS IS UNCERTAIN.
TEMPS WILL HAVE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY MAJOR
CHANGES. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE...MAINLY NEAR AND NW OF I95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WATERS ON SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE PATTERN IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL ALLOW THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC TO RIDGE BACK
WESTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL PROMOTE WAA IN
THE LOW LEVELS. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS THAT ARE 5-10F
WARMER ON SATURDAY THAN TODAY. SATURDAY MAY POTENTIALLY BE THE FIRST
DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SINCE SEP 11, ALBEIT NOT MUCH MORE THAN
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER INITIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM TRIES TO MIX OUT MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CLOUDS
RATHER QUICKLY (BY 15Z) ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WHILE THE 12Z GFS
INDICATES A MUCH CLOUDIER SOLUTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE FALL LINE
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AS MARINE AIR IS STUBBORN TO MIX OUT. DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS FORECAST BY THE 12Z WOULD INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST WITH THE ONLY
DISCERNIBLE FORCING MECHANISM BEING LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. KEPT
POPS VERY LOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO COASTAL LOCALES SINCE MOISTURE FLUX IF FORECAST TO BE
GREATEST OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST NEAR THE CAROLINA
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND PASS EAST OF OUR AREA, BUT
WILL LIKELY NOT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES IT
NORTHEASTWARD. WE MAY HAVE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE
LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. SO WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR WESTERN AREAS DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE SWEEPING ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF MOSTLY TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY, BEFORE LOWERING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING. SO WE WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS,
DIMINISHING TO LOW END CHANCE SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST DURING THE
DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE LOSE THE INSTABILITY
BEFORE THE ACTIVITY REACHES OUR AREA. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY, BUT FOR NOW THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA. ACTUALLY, THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS
LIKE OUR ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD, SO
LETS HOPE WE GET SOMETHING FROM IT.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL. THEN TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER
TO NORMAL OR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...SCT CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS ALONG THE
COASTS. THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. I MAY
HAVE STARTED THE FILLING IN OF THE LOWER CIGS SEVERAL HOURS TOO
SOON? LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS MAY BREAK TO BECOME VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
IN THE EARLY AFTN. LIGHT SE FLOW. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING
HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS ERODE AND CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR. HAVE A
SHOWER IN THE TAF FOR KMIV AND KACY CLOSER TO THE COASTAL
INSTABILITY BURST. GFS AND NAM TSECTIONS SUGGEST SOMETIME DURING
THE AFTN...THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW TOPPED SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDS PROBABLE LATER ON WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LIFR
CONDITIONS IN DENSE FOG/STRATUS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LIGHT WIND.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING THE
BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY.
LESS GUSTY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS 44025 AND 44009 HAVE BEEN RESTORED TO SERVICE. THE COMPLETE
RESTORATION OF BUOY 44009 MAY BE DELAYED TIL JANUARY 2015?

EAST WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE BLOWING AT 15 KT ON SATURDAY. SEAS
WILL PROBABLY BE 4 TO 5 FT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE EXCEPTION WE WILL CANCEL THE FAR NNJ WATERS PORTION OF THE
ADVY BY 930 PM TONIGHT.

CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL SEAS AND WIND SCENARIO IS A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXTENDED AS SEAS
LOOK TO LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER IN
THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASING WINDS. WINDS AND WAVES MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING..

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND STAY BELOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE CONTINUED THE MDT RISK FOR FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ON SATURDAY FOR NJ. WE ARE USING 4 FT 7 SECONDS. THIS
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY MAY NEED FURTHER ADJUSTMENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 909
SHORT TERM...DRAG/KLEIN
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 909
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 909
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 200109
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
909 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT TO
OUR NORTHWEST SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE TO OUR
SOUTH, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST ON
MONDAY. A WEAKENING FRONT MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON TUESDAY,
BEFORE THE HIGH FULLY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
ESTF FOR 930 PM UPDATE: PATCHES OF SC SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT IN THE WEAK EASTERLY FLOW AND FORMED/REFORMED JUST BELOW
THE INVERSION NEAR 3000 FT. TIMING WHEN THIS HAPPENS IS UNCERTAIN.
TEMPS WILL HAVE SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS BUT DO NOT EXPECT ANY MAJOR
CHANGES. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE LATE...MAINLY NEAR AND NW OF I95.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE INTO THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC
WATERS ON SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK
NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES WHILE ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPS
OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THE PATTERN IN BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS
WILL ALLOW THE ABOVE MENTIONED HIGH OVER THE ATLANTIC TO RIDGE BACK
WESTWARD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH WILL PROMOTE WAA IN
THE LOW LEVELS. THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN MAX TEMPS THAT ARE 5-10F
WARMER ON SATURDAY THAN TODAY. SATURDAY MAY POTENTIALLY BE THE FIRST
DAY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS SINCE SEP 11, ALBEIT NOT MUCH MORE THAN
A COUPLE OF DEGREES ABOVE.

MODEL BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DEPICT A SATURATED BOUNDARY LAYER INITIALLY
SATURDAY MORNING AS A RESULT OF THE ONSHORE FLOW AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD. THE 12Z NAM TRIES TO MIX OUT MOISTURE AND RESULTANT CLOUDS
RATHER QUICKLY (BY 15Z) ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WHILE THE 12Z GFS
INDICATES A MUCH CLOUDIER SOLUTION ALONG AND EAST OF THE FALL LINE
THRU MUCH OF THE DAY AS MARINE AIR IS STUBBORN TO MIX OUT. DEEPER
MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN AS FORECAST BY THE 12Z WOULD INDICATE THE
POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS TO DEVELOP NEAR THE COAST WITH THE ONLY
DISCERNIBLE FORCING MECHANISM BEING LOW-LEVEL ISENTROPIC LIFT. KEPT
POPS VERY LOW DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY AND CONFINED SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS TO COASTAL LOCALES SINCE MOISTURE FLUX IF FORECAST TO BE
GREATEST OFFSHORE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SATURDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE PULLS AWAY TO OUR NORTHEAST AHEAD
OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME, AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING ALONG THE EAST COAST NEAR THE CAROLINA
COASTS. THE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHWARD AND PASS EAST OF OUR AREA, BUT
WILL LIKELY NOT PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR AREA TO BRING ANY
SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS BEFORE THE FRONT APPROACHES AND PUSHES IT
NORTHEASTWARD. WE MAY HAVE ANOTHER POSSIBILITY FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG AND/OR DRIZZLE AS THE LOW APPROACHES SATURDAY NIGHT AND THE
LOW LEVELS MOISTEN. SO WE HAVE ADDED PATCHY FOG/DRIZZLE FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SHOULD BE ENTERING OUR WESTERN AREAS DURING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON, BEFORE SWEEPING ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE THE HIGHEST POPS AND QPF MOSTLY TO
OUR WEST DURING THE DAY, BEFORE LOWERING AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY EVENING. SO WE WILL HAVE HIGHEST RAIN
CHANCES SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS,
DIMINISHING TO LOW END CHANCE SUNDAY EVENING. THERE IS SOME
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA AND ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST DURING THE
DAY, BUT THE QUESTION IS WHETHER OR NOT WE LOSE THE INSTABILITY
BEFORE THE ACTIVITY REACHES OUR AREA. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS AS THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME
ISOLATED CONVECTION.

ON MONDAY, THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING OUT TO SEA, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINS BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. A WEAKENING FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE AREA ON
TUESDAY, BUT FOR NOW THE FRONT LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE A MOSTLY DRY
FRONTAL PASSAGE.

THEN HIGH PRESSURE FULLY BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE AREA FOR MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK, WHICH WILL PROVIDE DRY WEATHER ACROSS
THE AREA. ACTUALLY, THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT LOOKS
LIKE OUR ONLY CHANCE OF RAIN FOR THE ENTIRE EXTENDED PERIOD, SO
LETS HOPE WE GET SOMETHING FROM IT.

TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST OF THE EXTENDED WITH
TEMPERATURES 5-10 ABOVE NORMAL. THEN TEMPERATURES RETURN CLOSER
TO NORMAL OR FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...SCT CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT WITH PATCHY MVFR CIGS ALONG THE
COASTS. THE MVFR CIGS SHOULD BECOME WIDESPREAD OVERNIGHT. I MAY
HAVE STARTED THE FILLING IN OF THE LOWER CIGS SEVERAL HOURS TOO
SOON? LIGHT EASTERLY FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR CIGS MAY BREAK TO BECOME VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FT
IN THE EARLY AFTN. LIGHT SE FLOW. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING
HOW QUICKLY LOW CLOUDS ERODE AND CIGS IMPROVE TO VFR. HAVE A
SHOWER IN THE TAF FOR KMIV AND KACY CLOSER TO THE COASTAL
INSTABILITY BURST. GFS AND NAM TSECTIONS SUGGEST SOMETIME DURING
THE AFTN...THE POSSIBILITY OF LOW TOPPED SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT...IFR CONDS PROBABLE LATER ON WITH STRATUS/FOG DEVELOPMENT
OVERNIGHT SATURDAY/SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY LIFR
CONDITIONS IN DENSE FOG/STRATUS BY DAYBREAK SUNDAY. LIGHT WIND.

SUNDAY-SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MORNING THE
BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY. A COLD FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE DAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AND LOWER
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY W-NW WINDS 15-20 KNOTS MONDAY.
LESS GUSTY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOYS 44025 AND 44009 HAVE BEEN RESTORED TO SERVICE. THE COMPLETE
RESTORATION OF BUOY 44009 MAY BE DELAYED TIL JANUARY 2015?

EAST WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE BLOWING AT 15 KT ON SATURDAY. SEAS
WILL PROBABLY BE 4 TO 5 FT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE EXCEPTION WE WILL CANCEL THE FAR NNJ WATERS PORTION OF THE
ADVY BY 930 PM TONIGHT.

CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL SEAS AND WIND SCENARIO IS A BIT BELOW
AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY EXTENDED AS SEAS
LOOK TO LINGER INTO EARLY SATURDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING LATER IN
THE NIGHT INTO SUNDAY.

SUNDAY NIGHT...A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT WITH SHOWERS AND
POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS WITH INCREASING WINDS. WINDS AND WAVES MAY
APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING..

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY...CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO TO DROP BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND STAY BELOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
WE CONTINUED THE MDT RISK FOR FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ON SATURDAY FOR NJ. WE ARE USING 4 FT 7 SECONDS. THIS
FORECAST FOR SATURDAY MAY NEED FURTHER ADJUSTMENT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR ANZ451>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ450.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 909
SHORT TERM...DRAG/KLEIN
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 909
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 909
RIP CURRENTS...







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