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000
FXUS61 KPHI 260848
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRACK TO THE VIRGINIA CAPES
BY NOON THEN INTENSIFY RAPIDLY IN ITS NORTHEAST TURN...NEARING
CAPE COD AT NOON TUESDAY AND THEN WEAKENING OFF TO NOVA SCOTIA ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW AND PASS OVER
OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MOISTURE/UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING CLIPPER WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH OCNL SNOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT 1 TO 2 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE. THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM WILL BEGIN TO THROW SOME SNOW INTO SERN AREAS TOWARD
00Z. AGAIN A FEW INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ANY PCPN OVER THE SRN DELMARVA
OR EXTREME SE NJ MAY FALL/MIX WITH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THE
FLAGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO SYSTEMS GO INTO EFFECT AROUND NOON.
THE WATCHES WERE CHANGED TO WARNINGS (NORTH OF BERKS) AND ADVISORIES
(BERKS AND SOUTH). THE STARTING TIMES WERE LINED UP WITH THE OTHER
FLAGS FOR SIMPLICITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AS IS MOVES FROM
OFF THE NC/VA COAST TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. STEADY/HVY SNOWS WILL
AFFECT MOSTLY THE ERN 2/3RD OF THE AREA WITH LIGHTER SNOWS AND
BLOWING SNOW OVER THE WRN/SWRN EDGES OF THE AREA. OUR SNOW TOTALS
ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE ONES ISSUED SUN AFTERNOON...PERHAPS
A FEW INCHES LOWER IF ANYTHING. WARNING CRITERIA SNOW MAY OR MAY
NOT  OCCUR ACROSS THE FARTHEST WESTERN WARNING AREAS(CARBON AND
LEHIGH)...BUT BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL MAKE
THINGS LOOK WARNING-LIKE. PLENTY OF TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHEST TOTALS THRU 12Z NRN HALF OF NJ AND INTO EXTREME ERN
PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***BLIZZARD COASTAL NEW JERSEY WILL BE ENDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON***

500 MB: DEEP OCCLUDED CYCLONIC CIRC NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TUESDAY DEPARTS WITH RIDGING WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH
FORMS SEWD TO THE EAST COAST THU-FRI. THEREAFTER THE HUDSON BAY
VORTEX SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC BY MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/26 MAV/MET FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
THE 00Z/26 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
05Z/26 WPC D4-8 ELEMENTS OF DEWPOINTS/WIND/SKY/POP/MAX-MIN TEMPS
WERE NOT USED FOR THE LONGER RANGE...BUT WE DID ADJUST POPS HIGHER
THU AFTN INTO FRI MORNING FOR THE NEXT CLIPPER.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY...BENT BACK MID LVL FRONT AT 700-600 MB WITH FGEN EXCESSIVE
SNOWFALL RATES COASTAL CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ WILL BE WINDING
DOWN RAPIDLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SFC WINDS BACKING TO NW. IDEAL
SNOW GROWTH REGION NEAR 650MB NNJ NEWD WITH 1-3"/HR EXPECTED EVEN
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. BUT...HOW FAR WEST
OF I 95 IS IT SNOWING TUESDAY IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. USUALLY
WITH BANDING THERE ARE AREAS OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN
WHAT YOU WOULD OTHERWISE CONSIDER A SNOWY ENVIRONMENT. THOSE AREAS
OF DRYING CAN SURPRISE. THIS MESO METEOROLOGY WE`RE NOT TOO GOOD
AT REALISTICALLY AND RELIABLY DETAILING MORE THAN A FEW HOURS IN
ADVANCE. LETS THINK OF LIGHTER SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE REST OF
EASTERN PA AND THE DELMARVA TUE MORNING THEN DRYING OUT. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW
OCCURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NJ. ESTIMATING DRIFTS TO 4 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE IN EXPOSED REGIONS OF COASTAL NE NJ, WHERE SNOWFALL
EXCEEDS 18 INCHES.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS 20 MPH. DRIFTING
SNOW CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY COASTAL NNJ

WEDNESDAY...MO/SUNNY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS 20-30 MPH.  DRIFTING SNOW
COASTAL NNJ.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
MAY BRING A SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FOR
NOW WE ARE FORECASTING AN EVENT ...MODEST AMOUNTS UNDER 2 INCHES
IN THIS CF SITUATION AND FOR NOW MAINLY N OF I 78.

LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED.

NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...IT MIGHT GET INTERESTING AGAIN?  IT DOES
NOT LOOK NECESSARILY STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH THE SE EVOLUTION OF THE
POLAR VORTEX AND WHAT MIGHT DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HERE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

**HIGH IMPACT EVENT, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING**

MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT CHANGEABLE LATER
AS THE WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA. CONDITIONS MAY GO VFR
FOR AWHILE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFID IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING FOR THIS IS LOW AND WILL NOT BE
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. THE NOR`EASTER WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TUE. WIDESPREAD LIFR WITH
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW COMMON. STRONG NE WINDS TONIGHT AND INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT MORNING SNOWFALL AND IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY
CONFINED MAINLY TO NJ FROM VCNTY KPHL-KACY LINE NORTHWARD AND THAT
SNOW WILL BE ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON. BECOMES VFR EVERYWHERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. NW WIND GUSTS
25-30KT.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR SCT OR BKN AOA 4000 FT. NW WIND GUSTS 20 KT.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT AOA 4000 FT. NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 KT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...VFR TO START THURSDAY THEN A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE THU OR EARLY FRI WHEN CONDITIONS MAY LOWER
INTO THE MVFR OR IFR RANGE FOR A TIME. SW WIND THU AFTN SHIFT NW
FRI.


&&

.MARINE...
SIGNIFICANT NOR`EASTER TO AFFECT THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MARINE FLAGS WILL REMAIN AS THEY ARE WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE. STORM
WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND GALES FOR DEL BAY AND
THE SOUTHERN TWO COASTAL ZONES. BEGINNING AND END TIMES CONTINUE TO
LOOK GOOD.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...A MARINE STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS
OFF NEW JERSEY TO START THE DAY. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND FOR DELAWARE BAY.  WINDS DMSHG IN THE AFTN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER NW GALES DURING THE EVENING WITH SLOWLY
DIMINISHING WIND OVERNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.

WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
FREEZING SPRAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY...AN SCA SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED BY LATE FRIDAY AS A
NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE NORTHEASTWARD
DEPARTING CLIPPER LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING...COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE CONVERTED TO
WARNINGS WITH THE 330 AM FCST PACKAGE. WIDESPREAD MINOR WITH A
FEW AREAS OF LOW-END MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED. THE TIDE
CYCLES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ARE THE MOST LIKELY ONE TO HAVE
FLOODING CONCERNS...THE GREATER THREAT BEING TONIGHTS MIDNIGHT
HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     PAZ070-071-103>106.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR PAZ060-101-102.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055-061-062.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010-015>019-021>025-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 349A
NEAR TERM...O`HARA 349A
SHORT TERM...O`HARA 349A
LONG TERM...DRAG 349A
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 349A
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 349A
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...349A







000
FXUS61 KPHI 260848
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CAROLINA WILL TRACK TO THE VIRGINIA CAPES
BY NOON THEN INTENSIFY RAPIDLY IN ITS NORTHEAST TURN...NEARING
CAPE COD AT NOON TUESDAY AND THEN WEAKENING OFF TO NOVA SCOTIA ON
WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. A WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW AND PASS OVER
OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MOISTURE/UPPER ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAKENING CLIPPER WILL
AFFECT THE AREA TODAY. CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH OCNL SNOW WILL BE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH SCT 1 TO 2 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE. THE DEVELOPING
COASTAL STORM WILL BEGIN TO THROW SOME SNOW INTO SERN AREAS TOWARD
00Z. AGAIN A FEW INCHES ARE POSSIBLE. ANY PCPN OVER THE SRN DELMARVA
OR EXTREME SE NJ MAY FALL/MIX WITH RAIN THIS AFTERNOON.  MOST OF THE
FLAGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE TWO SYSTEMS GO INTO EFFECT AROUND NOON.
THE WATCHES WERE CHANGED TO WARNINGS (NORTH OF BERKS) AND ADVISORIES
(BERKS AND SOUTH). THE STARTING TIMES WERE LINED UP WITH THE OTHER
FLAGS FOR SIMPLICITY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OVERNIGHT AS IS MOVES FROM
OFF THE NC/VA COAST TO THE 40/70 BENCHMARK. STEADY/HVY SNOWS WILL
AFFECT MOSTLY THE ERN 2/3RD OF THE AREA WITH LIGHTER SNOWS AND
BLOWING SNOW OVER THE WRN/SWRN EDGES OF THE AREA. OUR SNOW TOTALS
ARE NOT MUCH DIFFERENT THAN THE ONES ISSUED SUN AFTERNOON...PERHAPS
A FEW INCHES LOWER IF ANYTHING. WARNING CRITERIA SNOW MAY OR MAY
NOT  OCCUR ACROSS THE FARTHEST WESTERN WARNING AREAS(CARBON AND
LEHIGH)...BUT BLOWING SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL MAKE
THINGS LOOK WARNING-LIKE. PLENTY OF TRAVEL IMPACTS ACROSS THE
REGION. HIGHEST TOTALS THRU 12Z NRN HALF OF NJ AND INTO EXTREME ERN
PA.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***BLIZZARD COASTAL NEW JERSEY WILL BE ENDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON***

500 MB: DEEP OCCLUDED CYCLONIC CIRC NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
COAST TUESDAY DEPARTS WITH RIDGING WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT TROUGH
FORMS SEWD TO THE EAST COAST THU-FRI. THEREAFTER THE HUDSON BAY
VORTEX SLIDES SOUTHEASTWARD INTO QUEBEC BY MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY WITH SEVERAL DAYS AROUND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/26 MAV/MET FOR TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY.
THE 00Z/26 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE
05Z/26 WPC D4-8 ELEMENTS OF DEWPOINTS/WIND/SKY/POP/MAX-MIN TEMPS
WERE NOT USED FOR THE LONGER RANGE...BUT WE DID ADJUST POPS HIGHER
THU AFTN INTO FRI MORNING FOR THE NEXT CLIPPER.

THE DAILIES...

TUESDAY...BENT BACK MID LVL FRONT AT 700-600 MB WITH FGEN EXCESSIVE
SNOWFALL RATES COASTAL CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NJ WILL BE WINDING
DOWN RAPIDLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SFC WINDS BACKING TO NW. IDEAL
SNOW GROWTH REGION NEAR 650MB NNJ NEWD WITH 1-3"/HR EXPECTED EVEN
FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE TUESDAY. BUT...HOW FAR WEST
OF I 95 IS IT SNOWING TUESDAY IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. USUALLY
WITH BANDING THERE ARE AREAS OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING IN
WHAT YOU WOULD OTHERWISE CONSIDER A SNOWY ENVIRONMENT. THOSE AREAS
OF DRYING CAN SURPRISE. THIS MESO METEOROLOGY WE`RE NOT TOO GOOD
AT REALISTICALLY AND RELIABLY DETAILING MORE THAN A FEW HOURS IN
ADVANCE. LETS THINK OF LIGHTER SNOW OCCURRING ACROSS THE REST OF
EASTERN PA AND THE DELMARVA TUE MORNING THEN DRYING OUT. NW WIND
GUSTS 25-35 MPH. CONSIDERABLE BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF THE SNOW
OCCURS, ESPECIALLY ACROSS NJ. ESTIMATING DRIFTS TO 4 FEET ARE
POSSIBLE IN EXPOSED REGIONS OF COASTAL NE NJ, WHERE SNOWFALL
EXCEEDS 18 INCHES.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING...WITH GUSTY NW WINDS 20 MPH. DRIFTING
SNOW CONTINUES, ESPECIALLY COASTAL NNJ

WEDNESDAY...MO/SUNNY WITH GUSTY NW WINDS 20-30 MPH.  DRIFTING SNOW
COASTAL NNJ.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST
MAY BRING A SHOT OF LIGHT SNOW FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. FOR
NOW WE ARE FORECASTING AN EVENT ...MODEST AMOUNTS UNDER 2 INCHES
IN THIS CF SITUATION AND FOR NOW MAINLY N OF I 78.

LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED.

NEXT SUNDAY AND MONDAY...IT MIGHT GET INTERESTING AGAIN?  IT DOES
NOT LOOK NECESSARILY STRAIGHTFORWARD WITH THE SE EVOLUTION OF THE
POLAR VORTEX AND WHAT MIGHT DEVELOP TO OUR SOUTH AHEAD OF THE
POSSIBLE ARRIVAL OF BITTERLY COLD AIR HERE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

**HIGH IMPACT EVENT, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING**

MOSTLY MVFR CONDITIONS EARLY TODAY WILL BE SOMEWHAT CHANGEABLE LATER
AS THE WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE AREA. CONDITIONS MAY GO VFR
FOR AWHILE LATER THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON...BUT
CONFID IN PLACEMENT AND TIMING FOR THIS IS LOW AND WILL NOT BE
INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. THE NOR`EASTER WILL AFFECT THE TERMINALS
BEGINNING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TUE. WIDESPREAD LIFR WITH
SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW COMMON. STRONG NE WINDS TONIGHT AND INTO TUE.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT MORNING SNOWFALL AND IFR CONDITIONS PROBABLY
CONFINED MAINLY TO NJ FROM VCNTY KPHL-KACY LINE NORTHWARD AND THAT
SNOW WILL BE ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON. BECOMES VFR EVERYWHERE DURING
THE AFTERNOON BUT WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. NW WIND GUSTS
25-30KT.

TUESDAY NIGHT...VFR SCT OR BKN AOA 4000 FT. NW WIND GUSTS 20 KT.

WEDNESDAY...VFR SCT AOA 4000 FT. NW WIND GUSTS 20-30 KT.

THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING...VFR TO START THURSDAY THEN A CHANCE
OF SNOW SHOWERS LATE THU OR EARLY FRI WHEN CONDITIONS MAY LOWER
INTO THE MVFR OR IFR RANGE FOR A TIME. SW WIND THU AFTN SHIFT NW
FRI.


&&

.MARINE...
SIGNIFICANT NOR`EASTER TO AFFECT THE WATERS LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.
MARINE FLAGS WILL REMAIN AS THEY ARE WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE. STORM
WARNINGS FOR MOST OF THE COASTAL WATERS AND GALES FOR DEL BAY AND
THE SOUTHERN TWO COASTAL ZONES. BEGINNING AND END TIMES CONTINUE TO
LOOK GOOD.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY...A MARINE STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS
OFF NEW JERSEY TO START THE DAY. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE
WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND FOR DELAWARE BAY.  WINDS DMSHG IN THE AFTN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...LEFTOVER NW GALES DURING THE EVENING WITH SLOWLY
DIMINISHING WIND OVERNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.

WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
FREEZING SPRAY.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

FRIDAY...AN SCA SHOULD EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED BY LATE FRIDAY AS A
NORTHWEST FLOW OF COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS BEHIND THE NORTHEASTWARD
DEPARTING CLIPPER LOW.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
COASTAL FLOODING...COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE CONVERTED TO
WARNINGS WITH THE 330 AM FCST PACKAGE. WIDESPREAD MINOR WITH A
FEW AREAS OF LOW-END MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED. THE TIDE
CYCLES TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING ARE THE MOST LIKELY ONE TO HAVE
FLOODING CONCERNS...THE GREATER THREAT BEING TONIGHTS MIDNIGHT
HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     PAZ070-071-103>106.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR PAZ060-101-102.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     PAZ054-055-061-062.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010-015>019-021>025-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     TUESDAY FOR DEZ002>004.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 PM EST TUESDAY
     FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 349A
NEAR TERM...O`HARA 349A
SHORT TERM...O`HARA 349A
LONG TERM...DRAG 349A
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 349A
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 349A
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...349A






000
FXUS61 KPHI 260248
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
948 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY IS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD, PASSING NEAR CAPE COD LATE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW AND PASS OVER OUR REGION ON EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AN ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO OOZE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA
AND IS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AT 02Z. THE COLDER AIR AND MORE NOTABLY
MUCH DRIER AIR IS EASING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY
CONNECTS INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND THIS WILL TRACK
OVER THE APPALACHIANS.

THE INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND ESPECIALLY ISENTROPIC LIFT UP
AND OVER THE COOLING LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SOUTHWARD IS RESULTING IN
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FROM ABOUT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO ON WESTWARD. THE
BULK OF THE LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT APPEARS TO BE NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE, AND THEREFORE THE POPS WERE LOWERED FOR
AWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE
INCOMING PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND THE RATHER DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR
SEEPING SOUTHWARD. THE BOUNDARY LAYER ESPECIALLY IN THIS CORRIDOR
IS STILL JUST MILD ENOUGH EARLY ON THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN IS
OCCURRING, HOWEVER THIS SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX
THEN SNOW AS COOLING CONTINUES. AS OF NOW, SOME FREEZING RAIN IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE A CONCERN.

IT APPEARS THAT UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW OVERALL OCCURS WITH THIS
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE
DEVELOPS AND IS MAINTAINED. THEREFORE THE QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS WERE
TWEAKED SOME. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY TOWARD THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY, DUE TO
BETTER/LONGER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO SHOW INITIAL WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, AND LOWER
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP
ASSIST WITH TRENDS. SOME TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME MONDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK FROM AROUND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING TO OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE, THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN AND BECOME A CLOSED UPPER
LOW. THESE FEATURES WILL THEN ULTIMATELY ALLOW FOR QUICK
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM LATE-
DAY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
THE INITIAL CLIPPER LOW IS PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH ON ITS WAY TO
THE COAST, AND AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ABOVE, A GENERAL ONE TO
THREE OR FOUR INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY MONDAY, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. MEANWHILE, AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM
THROUGH THE DAYTIME MONDAY, SOME MIXING OR CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN IN
EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND DOWN INTO THE
DELMARVA, GENERALLY LIMITING ANY SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY DAYTIME
ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.

NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME MONDAY WILL BE INCREASING,
WITH GUSTS INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE, ESPECIALLY BY THE END OF
THE DAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INCORPORATED SOME MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY, AND WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S AND PERHAPS SOME
40S INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***A MAJOR SNOWSTORM WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY***

930 PM UPDATE...WE ARE MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES ATTM. THE WATCH REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES AS UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS HERE ON HOW FAR WEST THE HEAVY
SNOW GETS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A SHARP CUTOFF WITH A WESTERN EXTENT,
AND THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL EXAMINE ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE AND
THEN MAKE A DECISION EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE, THE STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY CONTINUES TO
COME TOGETHER. THE SURFACE LOW WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING UP TOWARD THE
WATERS OFF EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD REACHING
NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY.

ABUNDANT ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL WRAP INTO THE STORM AND WE ARE
ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TOTALS. FROM NEW JERSEY
NORTHEASTWARD ONE TO TWO FOOT TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE COMMON.
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN OUR FORECAST ARE
TOWARD NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NEW
JERSEY COAST, INCLUDING MONMOUTH COUNTY AND OCEAN COUNTY.

THE EASTERN EDGE OF PENNSYLVANIA MAY SEE AMOUNTS AROUND A FOOT.
AS ONE WORKS WESTWARD TOWARD THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY, AMOUNTS
MAY BEGIN TO LESSEN TOWARD THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE. THE SAME IS TRUE
FOR THE UPPER DELMARVA.

BASED ON HIGH CONFIDENCE, WE HAVE UPGRADED MOST OF OUR NEW JERSEY
COUNTIES, AS WELL AS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WE HAVE UPGRADED THE
BLIZZARD WATCH TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE COUNTIES OF
MIDDLESEX, MONMOUTH AND OCEAN.

FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WE
HAVE LEFT THE WINTER STORM WATCH IN PLACE UNTIL WE CAN GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED IMPACTS ON THE EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE A SHARP CUT OFF IN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS ONE APPROACHES THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY
AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 20 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE DURING
THE SNOW EVENT WITH THE BRISK NORTHEAST WIND BACKING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. FREQUENT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED IN
OUR NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND THAT IS THE REASON FOR THE THREE
COUNTIES BEING INCLUDED IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING.

THE SNOW SHOULD END GRADUALLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COLD FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST MAY BRING A SHOT OF
LIGHT SNOW FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

**HIGH IMPACT EVENT EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY**

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR TOWARD MIDNIGHT THEN
TO IFR BY DAYBREAK. SOME RAIN/SNOW THEN SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA FROM THE WEST TO EAST THROUGH 06Z, WITH
MOST OF THIS FROM THE KPHL METRO AREA ON NORTH AND WEST. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE UP TO 2 INCHES MAINLY WEST OF
KPHL. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SOME
GUSTINESS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

MONDAY...GENERALLY IFR TO POSSIBLE LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SNOW. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX IS
EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR KMIV/KACY.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH GUSTS REACHING BETWEEN
25 TO 30 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND AN
INCH, WITH HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING THEN INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BRING
AIR TRAFFIC TO A STANDSTILL ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIFR AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
EXCESS OF ONE FOOT ARE ANTICIPATED AT KPHL WITH GREATER AMOUNTS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW. CONDITIONS
MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR OR IFR RANGE FOR A TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING OF
MONDAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE RAMPING UP TO SCA LEVELS AS NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY THE 12Z TO 15Z
MONDAY TIMEFRAME. FOR THE REST OF MONDAY THEN, CONTINUED
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS EXPECTED FOR DELAWARE BAY AND THE
COASTAL WATERS. BY MONDAY NIGHT, STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING TO BETWEEN 3 AND 6
FEET FOR DELAWARE BAY DURING MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
SEAS EVENTUALLY BUILDING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 16 FEET FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER MONDAY NIGHT. MARINE HEADLINES INCLUDE A GALE WARNING
FOR DELAWARE BAY AND FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY TO
FENWICK ISLAND, FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY,
WITH STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK
TO CAPE MAY, NJ THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A MARINE STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND FOR DELAWARE BAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY. FREEZING SPRAY
WILL BE AN ISSUE, AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ADDITIONAL FREEZING SPRAY ISSUES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT`S HIGH TIDE
ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND ON DELAWARE BAY.
WITH THE STRENGTHENING STORM OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE
STRONG NORTHEAST TO NORTH WIND, MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING APPEARS
LIKELY.

WE ARE THINKING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ON
THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AND PERHAPS ON THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY. HOWEVER, WE HAVE TIME TO ADDRESS THAT WITH AN
ADVISORY, IF NECESSARY.

ALSO, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY. IF
THE WIND IS SLOW TO BACK TO THE NORTHWEST, WE MAY EXPERIENCE
ANOTHER CYCLE WITH MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     PAZ070-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-101-102.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010-015>019-021>025-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NJZ012>014-016-020>027.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...GORSE/IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/KLINE
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/KLINE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO





000
FXUS61 KPHI 260248
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
948 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY IS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD, PASSING NEAR CAPE COD LATE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW AND PASS OVER OUR REGION ON EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AN ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO OOZE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA
AND IS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AT 02Z. THE COLDER AIR AND MORE NOTABLY
MUCH DRIER AIR IS EASING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY
CONNECTS INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND THIS WILL TRACK
OVER THE APPALACHIANS.

THE INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND ESPECIALLY ISENTROPIC LIFT UP
AND OVER THE COOLING LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SOUTHWARD IS RESULTING IN
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FROM ABOUT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO ON WESTWARD. THE
BULK OF THE LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT APPEARS TO BE NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE, AND THEREFORE THE POPS WERE LOWERED FOR
AWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE
INCOMING PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND THE RATHER DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR
SEEPING SOUTHWARD. THE BOUNDARY LAYER ESPECIALLY IN THIS CORRIDOR
IS STILL JUST MILD ENOUGH EARLY ON THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN IS
OCCURRING, HOWEVER THIS SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX
THEN SNOW AS COOLING CONTINUES. AS OF NOW, SOME FREEZING RAIN IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE A CONCERN.

IT APPEARS THAT UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW OVERALL OCCURS WITH THIS
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE
DEVELOPS AND IS MAINTAINED. THEREFORE THE QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS WERE
TWEAKED SOME. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY TOWARD THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY, DUE TO
BETTER/LONGER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO SHOW INITIAL WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, AND LOWER
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP
ASSIST WITH TRENDS. SOME TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME MONDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK FROM AROUND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING TO OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE, THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN AND BECOME A CLOSED UPPER
LOW. THESE FEATURES WILL THEN ULTIMATELY ALLOW FOR QUICK
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM LATE-
DAY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
THE INITIAL CLIPPER LOW IS PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH ON ITS WAY TO
THE COAST, AND AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ABOVE, A GENERAL ONE TO
THREE OR FOUR INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY MONDAY, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. MEANWHILE, AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM
THROUGH THE DAYTIME MONDAY, SOME MIXING OR CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN IN
EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND DOWN INTO THE
DELMARVA, GENERALLY LIMITING ANY SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY DAYTIME
ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.

NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME MONDAY WILL BE INCREASING,
WITH GUSTS INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE, ESPECIALLY BY THE END OF
THE DAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INCORPORATED SOME MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY, AND WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S AND PERHAPS SOME
40S INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***A MAJOR SNOWSTORM WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY***

930 PM UPDATE...WE ARE MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES ATTM. THE WATCH REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES AS UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS HERE ON HOW FAR WEST THE HEAVY
SNOW GETS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A SHARP CUTOFF WITH A WESTERN EXTENT,
AND THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL EXAMINE ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE AND
THEN MAKE A DECISION EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE, THE STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY CONTINUES TO
COME TOGETHER. THE SURFACE LOW WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING UP TOWARD THE
WATERS OFF EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD REACHING
NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY.

ABUNDANT ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL WRAP INTO THE STORM AND WE ARE
ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TOTALS. FROM NEW JERSEY
NORTHEASTWARD ONE TO TWO FOOT TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE COMMON.
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN OUR FORECAST ARE
TOWARD NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NEW
JERSEY COAST, INCLUDING MONMOUTH COUNTY AND OCEAN COUNTY.

THE EASTERN EDGE OF PENNSYLVANIA MAY SEE AMOUNTS AROUND A FOOT.
AS ONE WORKS WESTWARD TOWARD THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY, AMOUNTS
MAY BEGIN TO LESSEN TOWARD THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE. THE SAME IS TRUE
FOR THE UPPER DELMARVA.

BASED ON HIGH CONFIDENCE, WE HAVE UPGRADED MOST OF OUR NEW JERSEY
COUNTIES, AS WELL AS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WE HAVE UPGRADED THE
BLIZZARD WATCH TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE COUNTIES OF
MIDDLESEX, MONMOUTH AND OCEAN.

FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WE
HAVE LEFT THE WINTER STORM WATCH IN PLACE UNTIL WE CAN GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED IMPACTS ON THE EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE A SHARP CUT OFF IN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS ONE APPROACHES THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY
AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 20 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE DURING
THE SNOW EVENT WITH THE BRISK NORTHEAST WIND BACKING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. FREQUENT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED IN
OUR NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND THAT IS THE REASON FOR THE THREE
COUNTIES BEING INCLUDED IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING.

THE SNOW SHOULD END GRADUALLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COLD FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST MAY BRING A SHOT OF
LIGHT SNOW FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

**HIGH IMPACT EVENT EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY**

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR TOWARD MIDNIGHT THEN
TO IFR BY DAYBREAK. SOME RAIN/SNOW THEN SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA FROM THE WEST TO EAST THROUGH 06Z, WITH
MOST OF THIS FROM THE KPHL METRO AREA ON NORTH AND WEST. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE UP TO 2 INCHES MAINLY WEST OF
KPHL. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SOME
GUSTINESS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

MONDAY...GENERALLY IFR TO POSSIBLE LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SNOW. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX IS
EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR KMIV/KACY.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH GUSTS REACHING BETWEEN
25 TO 30 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND AN
INCH, WITH HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING THEN INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BRING
AIR TRAFFIC TO A STANDSTILL ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIFR AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
EXCESS OF ONE FOOT ARE ANTICIPATED AT KPHL WITH GREATER AMOUNTS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW. CONDITIONS
MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR OR IFR RANGE FOR A TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING OF
MONDAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE RAMPING UP TO SCA LEVELS AS NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY THE 12Z TO 15Z
MONDAY TIMEFRAME. FOR THE REST OF MONDAY THEN, CONTINUED
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS EXPECTED FOR DELAWARE BAY AND THE
COASTAL WATERS. BY MONDAY NIGHT, STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING TO BETWEEN 3 AND 6
FEET FOR DELAWARE BAY DURING MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
SEAS EVENTUALLY BUILDING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 16 FEET FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER MONDAY NIGHT. MARINE HEADLINES INCLUDE A GALE WARNING
FOR DELAWARE BAY AND FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY TO
FENWICK ISLAND, FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY,
WITH STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK
TO CAPE MAY, NJ THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A MARINE STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND FOR DELAWARE BAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY. FREEZING SPRAY
WILL BE AN ISSUE, AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ADDITIONAL FREEZING SPRAY ISSUES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT`S HIGH TIDE
ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND ON DELAWARE BAY.
WITH THE STRENGTHENING STORM OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE
STRONG NORTHEAST TO NORTH WIND, MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING APPEARS
LIKELY.

WE ARE THINKING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ON
THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AND PERHAPS ON THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY. HOWEVER, WE HAVE TIME TO ADDRESS THAT WITH AN
ADVISORY, IF NECESSARY.

ALSO, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY. IF
THE WIND IS SLOW TO BACK TO THE NORTHWEST, WE MAY EXPERIENCE
ANOTHER CYCLE WITH MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     PAZ070-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-101-102.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010-015>019-021>025-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NJZ012>014-016-020>027.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...GORSE/IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/KLINE
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/KLINE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO





000
FXUS61 KPHI 260248
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
948 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY IS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD, PASSING NEAR CAPE COD LATE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW AND PASS OVER OUR REGION ON EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AN ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO OOZE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA
AND IS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AT 02Z. THE COLDER AIR AND MORE NOTABLY
MUCH DRIER AIR IS EASING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY
CONNECTS INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND THIS WILL TRACK
OVER THE APPALACHIANS.

THE INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND ESPECIALLY ISENTROPIC LIFT UP
AND OVER THE COOLING LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SOUTHWARD IS RESULTING IN
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FROM ABOUT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO ON WESTWARD. THE
BULK OF THE LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT APPEARS TO BE NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE, AND THEREFORE THE POPS WERE LOWERED FOR
AWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE
INCOMING PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND THE RATHER DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR
SEEPING SOUTHWARD. THE BOUNDARY LAYER ESPECIALLY IN THIS CORRIDOR
IS STILL JUST MILD ENOUGH EARLY ON THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN IS
OCCURRING, HOWEVER THIS SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX
THEN SNOW AS COOLING CONTINUES. AS OF NOW, SOME FREEZING RAIN IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE A CONCERN.

IT APPEARS THAT UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW OVERALL OCCURS WITH THIS
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE
DEVELOPS AND IS MAINTAINED. THEREFORE THE QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS WERE
TWEAKED SOME. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY TOWARD THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY, DUE TO
BETTER/LONGER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO SHOW INITIAL WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, AND LOWER
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP
ASSIST WITH TRENDS. SOME TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME MONDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK FROM AROUND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING TO OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE, THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN AND BECOME A CLOSED UPPER
LOW. THESE FEATURES WILL THEN ULTIMATELY ALLOW FOR QUICK
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM LATE-
DAY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
THE INITIAL CLIPPER LOW IS PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH ON ITS WAY TO
THE COAST, AND AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ABOVE, A GENERAL ONE TO
THREE OR FOUR INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY MONDAY, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. MEANWHILE, AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM
THROUGH THE DAYTIME MONDAY, SOME MIXING OR CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN IN
EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND DOWN INTO THE
DELMARVA, GENERALLY LIMITING ANY SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY DAYTIME
ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.

NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME MONDAY WILL BE INCREASING,
WITH GUSTS INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE, ESPECIALLY BY THE END OF
THE DAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INCORPORATED SOME MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY, AND WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S AND PERHAPS SOME
40S INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***A MAJOR SNOWSTORM WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY***

930 PM UPDATE...WE ARE MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES ATTM. THE WATCH REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES AS UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS HERE ON HOW FAR WEST THE HEAVY
SNOW GETS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A SHARP CUTOFF WITH A WESTERN EXTENT,
AND THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL EXAMINE ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE AND
THEN MAKE A DECISION EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE, THE STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY CONTINUES TO
COME TOGETHER. THE SURFACE LOW WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING UP TOWARD THE
WATERS OFF EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD REACHING
NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY.

ABUNDANT ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL WRAP INTO THE STORM AND WE ARE
ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TOTALS. FROM NEW JERSEY
NORTHEASTWARD ONE TO TWO FOOT TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE COMMON.
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN OUR FORECAST ARE
TOWARD NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NEW
JERSEY COAST, INCLUDING MONMOUTH COUNTY AND OCEAN COUNTY.

THE EASTERN EDGE OF PENNSYLVANIA MAY SEE AMOUNTS AROUND A FOOT.
AS ONE WORKS WESTWARD TOWARD THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY, AMOUNTS
MAY BEGIN TO LESSEN TOWARD THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE. THE SAME IS TRUE
FOR THE UPPER DELMARVA.

BASED ON HIGH CONFIDENCE, WE HAVE UPGRADED MOST OF OUR NEW JERSEY
COUNTIES, AS WELL AS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WE HAVE UPGRADED THE
BLIZZARD WATCH TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE COUNTIES OF
MIDDLESEX, MONMOUTH AND OCEAN.

FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WE
HAVE LEFT THE WINTER STORM WATCH IN PLACE UNTIL WE CAN GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED IMPACTS ON THE EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE A SHARP CUT OFF IN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS ONE APPROACHES THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY
AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 20 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE DURING
THE SNOW EVENT WITH THE BRISK NORTHEAST WIND BACKING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. FREQUENT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED IN
OUR NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND THAT IS THE REASON FOR THE THREE
COUNTIES BEING INCLUDED IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING.

THE SNOW SHOULD END GRADUALLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COLD FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST MAY BRING A SHOT OF
LIGHT SNOW FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

**HIGH IMPACT EVENT EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY**

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR TOWARD MIDNIGHT THEN
TO IFR BY DAYBREAK. SOME RAIN/SNOW THEN SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA FROM THE WEST TO EAST THROUGH 06Z, WITH
MOST OF THIS FROM THE KPHL METRO AREA ON NORTH AND WEST. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE UP TO 2 INCHES MAINLY WEST OF
KPHL. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SOME
GUSTINESS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

MONDAY...GENERALLY IFR TO POSSIBLE LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SNOW. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX IS
EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR KMIV/KACY.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH GUSTS REACHING BETWEEN
25 TO 30 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND AN
INCH, WITH HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING THEN INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BRING
AIR TRAFFIC TO A STANDSTILL ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIFR AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
EXCESS OF ONE FOOT ARE ANTICIPATED AT KPHL WITH GREATER AMOUNTS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW. CONDITIONS
MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR OR IFR RANGE FOR A TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING OF
MONDAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE RAMPING UP TO SCA LEVELS AS NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY THE 12Z TO 15Z
MONDAY TIMEFRAME. FOR THE REST OF MONDAY THEN, CONTINUED
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS EXPECTED FOR DELAWARE BAY AND THE
COASTAL WATERS. BY MONDAY NIGHT, STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING TO BETWEEN 3 AND 6
FEET FOR DELAWARE BAY DURING MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
SEAS EVENTUALLY BUILDING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 16 FEET FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER MONDAY NIGHT. MARINE HEADLINES INCLUDE A GALE WARNING
FOR DELAWARE BAY AND FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY TO
FENWICK ISLAND, FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY,
WITH STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK
TO CAPE MAY, NJ THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A MARINE STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND FOR DELAWARE BAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY. FREEZING SPRAY
WILL BE AN ISSUE, AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ADDITIONAL FREEZING SPRAY ISSUES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT`S HIGH TIDE
ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND ON DELAWARE BAY.
WITH THE STRENGTHENING STORM OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE
STRONG NORTHEAST TO NORTH WIND, MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING APPEARS
LIKELY.

WE ARE THINKING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ON
THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AND PERHAPS ON THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY. HOWEVER, WE HAVE TIME TO ADDRESS THAT WITH AN
ADVISORY, IF NECESSARY.

ALSO, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY. IF
THE WIND IS SLOW TO BACK TO THE NORTHWEST, WE MAY EXPERIENCE
ANOTHER CYCLE WITH MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     PAZ070-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-101-102.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010-015>019-021>025-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NJZ012>014-016-020>027.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...GORSE/IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/KLINE
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/KLINE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO





000
FXUS61 KPHI 260248
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
948 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND MOVE OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY IS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD, PASSING NEAR CAPE COD LATE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO
FOLLOW AND PASS OVER OUR REGION ON EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR
FRIDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AN ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO OOZE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA
AND IS ACROSS THE DELMARVA AT 02Z. THE COLDER AIR AND MORE NOTABLY
MUCH DRIER AIR IS EASING SOUTHWARD THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY
CONNECTS INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OHIO VALLEY, AND THIS WILL TRACK
OVER THE APPALACHIANS.

THE INCREASING LARGE SCALE LIFT AND ESPECIALLY ISENTROPIC LIFT UP
AND OVER THE COOLING LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS SOUTHWARD IS RESULTING IN
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW FROM ABOUT THE PHILADELPHIA METRO ON WESTWARD. THE
BULK OF THE LIFT FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT APPEARS TO BE NEAR AND NORTH
OF THE MASON-DIXON LINE, AND THEREFORE THE POPS WERE LOWERED FOR
AWHILE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS. IT WILL BE A RACE BETWEEN THE
INCOMING PRECIPITATION SHIELD AND THE RATHER DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR
SEEPING SOUTHWARD. THE BOUNDARY LAYER ESPECIALLY IN THIS CORRIDOR
IS STILL JUST MILD ENOUGH EARLY ON THAT SOME LIGHT RAIN IS
OCCURRING, HOWEVER THIS SHOULD TRANSITION OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX
THEN SNOW AS COOLING CONTINUES. AS OF NOW, SOME FREEZING RAIN IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE A CONCERN.

IT APPEARS THAT UP TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW OVERALL OCCURS WITH THIS
MAINLY OVER THE WESTERN ZONES WHERE BETTER LIFT AND MOISTURE
DEVELOPS AND IS MAINTAINED. THEREFORE THE QPF AND SNOW AMOUNTS WERE
TWEAKED SOME. IT DOES APPEAR THAT SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE
POSSIBLE MAINLY TOWARD THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY, DUE TO
BETTER/LONGER LIFT AND MOISTURE.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO SHOW INITIAL WARMER TEMPERATURES
AND HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, AND LOWER
DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP
ASSIST WITH TRENDS. SOME TWEAKS WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME MONDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK FROM AROUND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING TO OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE, THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN AND BECOME A CLOSED UPPER
LOW. THESE FEATURES WILL THEN ULTIMATELY ALLOW FOR QUICK
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM LATE-
DAY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
THE INITIAL CLIPPER LOW IS PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH ON ITS WAY TO
THE COAST, AND AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ABOVE, A GENERAL ONE TO
THREE OR FOUR INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY MONDAY, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. MEANWHILE, AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM
THROUGH THE DAYTIME MONDAY, SOME MIXING OR CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN IN
EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND DOWN INTO THE
DELMARVA, GENERALLY LIMITING ANY SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY DAYTIME
ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.

NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME MONDAY WILL BE INCREASING,
WITH GUSTS INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE, ESPECIALLY BY THE END OF
THE DAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INCORPORATED SOME MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY, AND WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S AND PERHAPS SOME
40S INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***A MAJOR SNOWSTORM WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY***

930 PM UPDATE...WE ARE MAKING NO CHANGES TO THE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES ATTM. THE WATCH REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN
ZONES AS UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS HERE ON HOW FAR WEST THE HEAVY
SNOW GETS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A SHARP CUTOFF WITH A WESTERN EXTENT,
AND THE OVERNIGHT SHIFT WILL EXAMINE ALL OF THE NEW GUIDANCE AND
THEN MAKE A DECISION EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

OTHERWISE, THE STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY CONTINUES TO
COME TOGETHER. THE SURFACE LOW WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OFF THE
MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING UP TOWARD THE
WATERS OFF EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR
TUESDAY. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD REACHING
NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY.

ABUNDANT ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL WRAP INTO THE STORM AND WE ARE
ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TOTALS. FROM NEW JERSEY
NORTHEASTWARD ONE TO TWO FOOT TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE COMMON.
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN OUR FORECAST ARE
TOWARD NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NEW
JERSEY COAST, INCLUDING MONMOUTH COUNTY AND OCEAN COUNTY.

THE EASTERN EDGE OF PENNSYLVANIA MAY SEE AMOUNTS AROUND A FOOT.
AS ONE WORKS WESTWARD TOWARD THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY, AMOUNTS
MAY BEGIN TO LESSEN TOWARD THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE. THE SAME IS TRUE
FOR THE UPPER DELMARVA.

BASED ON HIGH CONFIDENCE, WE HAVE UPGRADED MOST OF OUR NEW JERSEY
COUNTIES, AS WELL AS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WE HAVE UPGRADED THE
BLIZZARD WATCH TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE COUNTIES OF
MIDDLESEX, MONMOUTH AND OCEAN.

FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WE
HAVE LEFT THE WINTER STORM WATCH IN PLACE UNTIL WE CAN GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED IMPACTS ON THE EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE A SHARP CUT OFF IN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS ONE APPROACHES THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY
AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 20 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE DURING
THE SNOW EVENT WITH THE BRISK NORTHEAST WIND BACKING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. FREQUENT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED IN
OUR NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND THAT IS THE REASON FOR THE THREE
COUNTIES BEING INCLUDED IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING.

THE SNOW SHOULD END GRADUALLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COLD FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST MAY BRING A SHOT OF
LIGHT SNOW FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

**HIGH IMPACT EVENT EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY**

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR TOWARD MIDNIGHT THEN
TO IFR BY DAYBREAK. SOME RAIN/SNOW THEN SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO
OVERSPREAD MOST OF THE AREA FROM THE WEST TO EAST THROUGH 06Z, WITH
MOST OF THIS FROM THE KPHL METRO AREA ON NORTH AND WEST. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE UP TO 2 INCHES MAINLY WEST OF
KPHL. NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASING TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SOME
GUSTINESS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.

MONDAY...GENERALLY IFR TO POSSIBLE LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SNOW. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX IS
EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR KMIV/KACY.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH GUSTS REACHING BETWEEN
25 TO 30 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND AN
INCH, WITH HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING THEN INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BRING
AIR TRAFFIC TO A STANDSTILL ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIFR AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
EXCESS OF ONE FOOT ARE ANTICIPATED AT KPHL WITH GREATER AMOUNTS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW. CONDITIONS
MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR OR IFR RANGE FOR A TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING OF
MONDAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE RAMPING UP TO SCA LEVELS AS NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY THE 12Z TO 15Z
MONDAY TIMEFRAME. FOR THE REST OF MONDAY THEN, CONTINUED
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS EXPECTED FOR DELAWARE BAY AND THE
COASTAL WATERS. BY MONDAY NIGHT, STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING TO BETWEEN 3 AND 6
FEET FOR DELAWARE BAY DURING MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
SEAS EVENTUALLY BUILDING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 16 FEET FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER MONDAY NIGHT. MARINE HEADLINES INCLUDE A GALE WARNING
FOR DELAWARE BAY AND FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY TO
FENWICK ISLAND, FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY,
WITH STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK
TO CAPE MAY, NJ THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A MARINE STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND FOR DELAWARE BAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY. FREEZING SPRAY
WILL BE AN ISSUE, AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ADDITIONAL FREEZING SPRAY ISSUES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT`S HIGH TIDE
ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND ON DELAWARE BAY.
WITH THE STRENGTHENING STORM OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE
STRONG NORTHEAST TO NORTH WIND, MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING APPEARS
LIKELY.

WE ARE THINKING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ON
THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AND PERHAPS ON THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY. HOWEVER, WE HAVE TIME TO ADDRESS THAT WITH AN
ADVISORY, IF NECESSARY.

ALSO, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY. IF
THE WIND IS SLOW TO BACK TO THE NORTHWEST, WE MAY EXPERIENCE
ANOTHER CYCLE WITH MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     PAZ070-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-101-102.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010-015>019-021>025-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NJZ012>014-016-020>027.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...GORSE/IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/KLINE
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/KLINE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO





000
FXUS61 KPHI 252333
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
633 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY IS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD, PASSING NEAR CAPE COD LATE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW
AND PASS OVER OUR REGION ON EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AN ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO OOZE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA,
WITH COLDER AIR AND MORE NOTABLY MUCH DRIER AIR SEEPING SOUTHWARD
EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY CONNECTS INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY, AND THIS WILL TRACK OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THE
ACCOMPANYING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS SHOWN TO TAKE ON MORE OF A
NEGATIVE TILT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THESE FEATURES IN MIND, WE ANTICIPATE A LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA GOING THROUGH LATE EVENING.
THIS MAY TAKE AWHILE TO GET FARTHER NORTHEAST DUE TO DRIER AIR
ADVECTING SOUTHWARD IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS JUST
MILD ENOUGH EARLY ON THAT SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR AT
THE START AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE FOR THE FAR
SOUTHERN DELMARVA, LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX CAN BE ANTICIPATED
BASED ON THE EXPECTED BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONVERGENCE SETTING
UP INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA, AND OVERALL WE EXPECT A GENERAL
1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA FROM THE OVERNIGHT TO MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANY POSSIBLE
MESOSCALE BANDING THAT DEVELOPS WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHERE THE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER VALUES ARE REALIZED, WITH SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
CLOSER TO FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE MAINLY TOWARD THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY.

A NORTHERLY WIND WILL TAKE OVER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND TURN MORE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO SHOW
INITIAL WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, AND LOWER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME MONDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK FROM AROUND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING TO OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE, THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN AND BECOME A CLOSED UPPER
LOW. THESE FEATURES WILL THEN ULTIMATELY ALLOW FOR QUICK
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM LATE-
DAY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
THE INITIAL CLIPPER LOW IS PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH ON ITS WAY TO
THE COAST, AND AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ABOVE, A GENERAL ONE TO
THREE OR FOUR INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY MONDAY, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. MEANWHILE, AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM
THROUGH THE DAYTIME MONDAY, SOME MIXING OR CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN IN
EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND DOWN INTO THE
DELMARVA, GENERALLY LIMITING ANY SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY DAYTIME
ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.

NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME MONDAY WILL BE INCREASING,
WITH GUSTS INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE, ESPECIALLY BY THE END OF
THE DAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INCORPORATED SOME MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY, AND WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S AND PERHAPS SOME
40S INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***A MAJOR SNOWSTORM WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY***

THE STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY CONTINUES TO COME
TOGETHER. THE SURFACE LOW WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING UP TOWARD THE WATERS
OFF EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD REACHING NOVA SCOTIA
ON WEDNESDAY.

ABUNDANT ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL WRAP INTO THE STORM AND WE ARE
ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TOTALS. FROM NEW JERSEY
NORTHEASTWARD ONE TO TWO FOOT TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE COMMON.
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN OUR FORECAST ARE
TOWARD NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NEW
JERSEY COAST, INCLUDING MONMOUTH COUNTY AND OCEAN COUNTY.

THE EASTERN EDGE OF PENNSYLVANIA MAY SEE AMOUNTS AROUND A FOOT.
AS ONE WORKS WESTWARD TOWARD THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY, AMOUNTS
MAY BEGIN TO LESSEN TOWARD THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE. THE SAME IS TRUE
FOR THE UPPER DELMARVA.

BASED ON HIGH CONFIDENCE, WE HAVE UPGRADED MOST OF OUR NEW JERSEY
COUNTIES, AS WELL AS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WE HAVE UPGRADED THE
BLIZZARD WATCH TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE COUNTIES OF
MIDDLESEX, MONMOUTH AND OCEAN.

FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WE
HAVE LEFT THE WINTER STORM WATCH IN PLACE UNTIL WE CAN GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED IMPACTS ON THE EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE A SHARP CUT OFF IN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS ONE APPROACHES THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY
AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 20 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE DURING
THE SNOW EVENT WITH THE BRISK NORTHEAST WIND BACKING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. FREQUENT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED IN
OUR NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND THAT IS THE REASON FOR THE THREE
COUNTIES BEING INCLUDED IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING.

THE SNOW SHOULD END GRADUALLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COLD FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST MAY BRING A SHOT OF
LIGHT SNOW FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

**HIGH IMPACT EVENT EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY**

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR TOWARD MIDNIGHT THEN TO IFR
BY DAYBREAK. SOME MAINLY LIGHT SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TO EAST, GENERALLY IN THE 02Z TO 05Z TIME
FRAME. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY KILG, KMIV AND KACY
AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION, BUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT A CHANGEOVER
TO ALL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE MAINLY 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND WESTWARD, WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH FOR KMIV/KACY. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5
KNOTS, BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS. SOME GUSTINESS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE.

MONDAY...GENERALLY IFR TO POSSIBLE LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SNOW. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX IS
EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR KMIV/KACY.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH GUSTS REACHING BETWEEN
25 TO 30 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND AN
INCH, WITH HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING THEN INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BRING
AIR TRAFFIC TO A STANDSTILL ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIFR AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
EXCESS OF ONE FOOT ARE ANTICIPATED AT KPHL WITH GREATER AMOUNTS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW. CONDITIONS
MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR OR IFR RANGE FOR A TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING OF
MONDAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE RAMPING UP TO SCA LEVELS AS NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY THE 12Z TO 15Z
MONDAY TIMEFRAME. FOR THE REST OF MONDAY THEN, CONTINUED
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS EXPECTED FOR DELAWARE BAY AND THE
COASTAL WATERS. BY MONDAY NIGHT, STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING TO BETWEEN 3 AND 6
FEET FOR DELAWARE BAY DURING MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
SEAS EVENTUALLY BUILDING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 16 FEET FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER MONDAY NIGHT. MARINE HEADLINES INCLUDE A GALE WARNING
FOR DELAWARE BAY AND FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY TO
FENWICK ISLAND, FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY,
WITH STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK
TO CAPE MAY, NJ THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A MARINE STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND FOR DELAWARE BAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY. FREEZING SPRAY
WILL BE AN ISSUE, AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ADDITIONAL FREEZING SPRAY ISSUES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT`S HIGH TIDE
ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND ON DELAWARE BAY.
WITH THE STRENGTHENING STORM OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE
STRONG NORTHEAST TO NORTH WIND, MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING APPEARS
LIKELY.

WE ARE THINKING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ON
THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AND PERHAPS ON THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY. HOWEVER, WE HAVE TIME TO ADDRESS THAT WITH AN
ADVISORY, IF NECESSARY.

ALSO, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY. IF
THE WIND IS SLOW TO BACK TO THE NORTHWEST, WE MAY EXPERIENCE
ANOTHER CYCLE WITH MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     PAZ070-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-101-102.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010-015>019-021>025-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NJZ012>014-016-020>027.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/KLEIN
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/KLINE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 252333
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
633 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING WILL TRACK EASTWARD AND
MOVE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE LOW WILL THEN RAPIDLY
INTENSIFY IS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD, PASSING NEAR CAPE COD LATE ON
TUESDAY BEFORE REACHING NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM
THE WEST IS FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW
AND PASS OVER OUR REGION ON EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AN ARCTIC FRONT CONTINUES TO OOZE ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR AREA,
WITH COLDER AIR AND MORE NOTABLY MUCH DRIER AIR SEEPING SOUTHWARD
EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS BOUNDARY CONNECTS INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY, AND THIS WILL TRACK OVER THE APPALACHIANS. THE
ACCOMPANYING MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS SHOWN TO TAKE ON MORE OF A
NEGATIVE TILT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY MONDAY.

WITH THESE FEATURES IN MIND, WE ANTICIPATE A LIGHT SNOW TO DEVELOP
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA GOING THROUGH LATE EVENING.
THIS MAY TAKE AWHILE TO GET FARTHER NORTHEAST DUE TO DRIER AIR
ADVECTING SOUTHWARD IN THE LOWER LEVELS. THE BOUNDARY LAYER IS JUST
MILD ENOUGH EARLY ON THAT SOME SPRINKLES OR LIGHT RAIN MAY OCCUR AT
THE START AS IT MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. MEANWHILE FOR THE FAR
SOUTHERN DELMARVA, LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX CAN BE ANTICIPATED
BASED ON THE EXPECTED BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES DURING THE
OVERNIGHT.

THE MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONVERGENCE SETTING
UP INTO THE CENTRAL PART OF THE CWA, AND OVERALL WE EXPECT A GENERAL
1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR CENTRAL TO NORTHERN PARTS OF
THE CWA FROM THE OVERNIGHT TO MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANY POSSIBLE
MESOSCALE BANDING THAT DEVELOPS WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHERE THE
SOMEWHAT HIGHER VALUES ARE REALIZED, WITH SOME LOCALIZED AMOUNTS
CLOSER TO FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE MAINLY TOWARD THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY.

A NORTHERLY WIND WILL TAKE OVER FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FOLLOWING THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND AS LOW PRESSURE TRACKS EASTWARD. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AND TURN MORE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH
DURING THE OVERNIGHT. THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED TO SHOW
INITIAL WARMER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA, AND LOWER DEW POINTS ACROSS THE NORTH. THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED TO HELP ASSIST WITH TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME MONDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK FROM AROUND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING TO OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE, THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN AND BECOME A CLOSED UPPER
LOW. THESE FEATURES WILL THEN ULTIMATELY ALLOW FOR QUICK
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM LATE-
DAY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
THE INITIAL CLIPPER LOW IS PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH ON ITS WAY TO
THE COAST, AND AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ABOVE, A GENERAL ONE TO
THREE OR FOUR INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY MONDAY, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. MEANWHILE, AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM
THROUGH THE DAYTIME MONDAY, SOME MIXING OR CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN IN
EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND DOWN INTO THE
DELMARVA, GENERALLY LIMITING ANY SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY DAYTIME
ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.

NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME MONDAY WILL BE INCREASING,
WITH GUSTS INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE, ESPECIALLY BY THE END OF
THE DAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INCORPORATED SOME MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY, AND WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S AND PERHAPS SOME
40S INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***A MAJOR SNOWSTORM WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY***

THE STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY CONTINUES TO COME
TOGETHER. THE SURFACE LOW WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING UP TOWARD THE WATERS
OFF EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD REACHING NOVA SCOTIA
ON WEDNESDAY.

ABUNDANT ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL WRAP INTO THE STORM AND WE ARE
ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TOTALS. FROM NEW JERSEY
NORTHEASTWARD ONE TO TWO FOOT TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE COMMON.
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN OUR FORECAST ARE
TOWARD NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NEW
JERSEY COAST, INCLUDING MONMOUTH COUNTY AND OCEAN COUNTY.

THE EASTERN EDGE OF PENNSYLVANIA MAY SEE AMOUNTS AROUND A FOOT.
AS ONE WORKS WESTWARD TOWARD THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY, AMOUNTS
MAY BEGIN TO LESSEN TOWARD THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE. THE SAME IS TRUE
FOR THE UPPER DELMARVA.

BASED ON HIGH CONFIDENCE, WE HAVE UPGRADED MOST OF OUR NEW JERSEY
COUNTIES, AS WELL AS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WE HAVE UPGRADED THE
BLIZZARD WATCH TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE COUNTIES OF
MIDDLESEX, MONMOUTH AND OCEAN.

FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WE
HAVE LEFT THE WINTER STORM WATCH IN PLACE UNTIL WE CAN GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED IMPACTS ON THE EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE A SHARP CUT OFF IN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS ONE APPROACHES THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY
AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 20 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE DURING
THE SNOW EVENT WITH THE BRISK NORTHEAST WIND BACKING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. FREQUENT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED IN
OUR NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND THAT IS THE REASON FOR THE THREE
COUNTIES BEING INCLUDED IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING.

THE SNOW SHOULD END GRADUALLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COLD FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST MAY BRING A SHOT OF
LIGHT SNOW FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

**HIGH IMPACT EVENT EXPECTED MONDAY AND TUESDAY**

TONIGHT...VFR CEILINGS LOWERING TO MVFR TOWARD MIDNIGHT THEN TO IFR
BY DAYBREAK. SOME MAINLY LIGHT SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO OVERSPREAD
THE AREA FROM THE WEST TO EAST, GENERALLY IN THE 02Z TO 05Z TIME
FRAME. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR MAINLY KILG, KMIV AND KACY
AT THE ONSET OF PRECIPITATION, BUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT A CHANGEOVER
TO ALL LIGHT SNOW IS EXPECTED. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO
BE MAINLY 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND WESTWARD, WITH
GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH FOR KMIV/KACY. NORTHERLY WINDS AROUND 5
KNOTS, BECOMING MORE NORTHEASTERLY OVERNIGHT AND INCREASING TO 10 TO
15 KNOTS. SOME GUSTINESS SHOULD DEVELOP LATE.

MONDAY...GENERALLY IFR TO POSSIBLE LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SNOW. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX IS
EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR KMIV/KACY.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH GUSTS REACHING BETWEEN
25 TO 30 KNOTS. ADDITIONAL DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND AN
INCH, WITH HEAVIER SNOW DEVELOPING THEN INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BRING
AIR TRAFFIC TO A STANDSTILL ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIFR AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
EXCESS OF ONE FOOT ARE ANTICIPATED AT KPHL WITH GREATER AMOUNTS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW. CONDITIONS
MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR OR IFR RANGE FOR A TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING OF
MONDAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE RAMPING UP TO SCA LEVELS AS NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY THE 12Z TO 15Z
MONDAY TIMEFRAME. FOR THE REST OF MONDAY THEN, CONTINUED
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS EXPECTED FOR DELAWARE BAY AND THE
COASTAL WATERS. BY MONDAY NIGHT, STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING TO BETWEEN 3 AND 6
FEET FOR DELAWARE BAY DURING MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
SEAS EVENTUALLY BUILDING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 16 FEET FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER MONDAY NIGHT. MARINE HEADLINES INCLUDE A GALE WARNING
FOR DELAWARE BAY AND FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY TO
FENWICK ISLAND, FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY,
WITH STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK
TO CAPE MAY, NJ THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A MARINE STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND FOR DELAWARE BAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY. FREEZING SPRAY
WILL BE AN ISSUE, AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ADDITIONAL FREEZING SPRAY ISSUES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT`S HIGH TIDE
ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND ON DELAWARE BAY.
WITH THE STRENGTHENING STORM OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE
STRONG NORTHEAST TO NORTH WIND, MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING APPEARS
LIKELY.

WE ARE THINKING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ON
THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AND PERHAPS ON THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY. HOWEVER, WE HAVE TIME TO ADDRESS THAT WITH AN
ADVISORY, IF NECESSARY.

ALSO, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY. IF
THE WIND IS SLOW TO BACK TO THE NORTHWEST, WE MAY EXPERIENCE
ANOTHER CYCLE WITH MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     PAZ070-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-101-102.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010-015>019-021>025-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NJZ012>014-016-020>027.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-454-455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/KLEIN
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/KLINE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO





000
FXUS61 KPHI 252105
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY THIS
AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND IT WILL MOVE OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY. THE LOW WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY IS IT
MOVES NORTHEASTWARD, PASSING NEAR CAPE COD LATE ON TUESDAY BEFORE
REACHING NOVA SCOTIA ON WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST IS
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FROM THE
WEST AND IT SHOULD PASS OVER OUR REGION ON EITHER THURSDAY NIGHT
OR FRIDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
HEADING INTO THIS EVENING, A COLD FRONT WILL BE SITUATED JUST TO
OUR SOUTH, WITH AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE BOUNDARY, PROGRESSING THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. AS
THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUES TO TRACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND OVER
THE APPALACHIANS, THE ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE ALOFT IS
SHOWN TO TAKE ON MORE OF A NEGATIVE TILT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TO
EARLY MONDAY. WITH THESE FEATURES IN MIND, WE ANTICIPATE A LIGHT
SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA GOING
THROUGH LATE EVENING. MEANWHILE, FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN DELMARVA,
LIGHT RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX CAN BE ANTICIPATED BASED ON THE
EXPECTED BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES DURING THE OVERNIGHT. MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW FAIRLY GOOD CONVERGENCE SETTING UP INTO
THE CENTRAL PART OF THE FORECAST AREA, AND OVERALL WE EXPECT A
GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION FOR CENTRAL TO NORTHERN
PARTS OF THE CWA FROM THE OVERNIGHT TO MONDAY AFTERNOON. ANY
POSSIBLE MESOSCALE BANDING THAT DEVELOPS WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE
WHERE THE SOMEWHAT HIGHER VALUES ARE REALIZED, WITH SOME LOCALIZED
AMOUNTS CLOSER TO FOUR INCHES POSSIBLE.

MAINLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING,
BECOMING MORE NORTHEAST BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE OVERNIGHT.
FOR NIGHTTIME MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, WE MOSTLY TOOK A MET/MAV
GUIDANCE BLEND WITH CONTINUITY, AND WE ANTICIPATE LOWS TO RANGE
FROM THE TEENS ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES TO THE MIDDLE 30S IN THE
FAR SOUTHERN DELMARVA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
THROUGH THE DAYTIME MONDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED LOW PRESSURE
WILL TRACK FROM AROUND THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY MONDAY
MORNING TO OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. MEANWHILE, THE PREVIOUSLY
MENTIONED UPPER SHORTWAVE WILL DEEPEN AND BECOME A CLOSED UPPER
LOW. THESE FEATURES WILL THEN ULTIMATELY ALLOW FOR QUICK
INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM AS IT TRACKS NORTHEAST FROM LATE-
DAY MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

A GENERALLY LIGHT SNOW WILL BE ONGOING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING AS
THE INITIAL CLIPPER LOW IS PASSING BY TO OUR SOUTH ON ITS WAY TO
THE COAST, AND AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED ABOVE, A GENERAL ONE TO
THREE OR FOUR INCH SNOW ACCUMULATION CAN BE ANTICIPATED THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE DAY MONDAY, WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO
EXTEND FROM PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA INTO CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. MEANWHILE, AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM
THROUGH THE DAYTIME MONDAY, SOME MIXING OR CHANGE-OVER TO RAIN IN
EXPECTED FOR SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF NEW JERSEY AND DOWN INTO THE
DELMARVA, GENERALLY LIMITING ANY SUNDAY NIGHT TO MONDAY DAYTIME
ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND AN INCH OR LESS.

NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME MONDAY WILL BE INCREASING,
WITH GUSTS INTO THE 25 TO 30 MPH RANGE, ESPECIALLY BY THE END OF
THE DAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES INCORPORATED SOME MET AND MAV
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY, AND WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS TO RANGE FROM
THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 20S NORTH TO THE UPPER 30S AND PERHAPS SOME
40S INTO THE FAR SOUTHERN DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
***A MAJOR SNOWSTORM WILL AFFECT OUR REGION FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY***

THE STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY CONTINUES TO COME
TOGETHER. THE SURFACE LOW WILL INTENSIFY RAPIDLY OFF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC COAST ON MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE MOVING UP TOWARD THE WATERS
OFF EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW ENGLAND FOR TUESDAY.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN CONTINUE NORTHEASTWARD REACHING NOVA SCOTIA
ON WEDNESDAY.

ABUNDANT ATLANTIC MOISTURE WILL WRAP INTO THE STORM AND WE ARE
ANTICIPATING SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL TOTALS. FROM NEW JERSEY
NORTHEASTWARD ONE TO TWO FOOT TOTALS ARE FORECAST TO BE COMMON.
AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF TWO FEET ARE POSSIBLE IN OUR FORECAST ARE
TOWARD NORTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY AND THE NORTHERN PART OF THE NEW
JERSEY COAST, INCLUDING MONMOUTH COUNTY AND OCEAN COUNTY.

THE EASTERN EDGE OF PENNSYLVANIA MAY SEE AMOUNTS AROUND A FOOT.
AS ONE WORKS WESTWARD TOWARD THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY, AMOUNTS
MAY BEGIN TO LESSEN TOWARD THE 4 TO 6 INCH RANGE. THE SAME IS TRUE
FOR THE UPPER DELMARVA.

BASED ON HIGH CONFIDENCE, WE HAVE UPGRADED MOST OF OUR NEW JERSEY
COUNTIES, AS WELL AS MUCH OF SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WE HAVE UPGRADED THE
BLIZZARD WATCH TO A BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE COUNTIES OF
MIDDLESEX, MONMOUTH AND OCEAN.

FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, WE
HAVE LEFT THE WINTER STORM WATCH IN PLACE UNTIL WE CAN GET A
BETTER HANDLE ON THE EXPECTED IMPACTS ON THE EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD. THERE MAY VERY WELL BE A SHARP CUT OFF IN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS ONE APPROACHES THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY
AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY REGION.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 20 TO 30 DEGREE RANGE DURING
THE SNOW EVENT WITH THE BRISK NORTHEAST WIND BACKING TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. FREQUENT GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH ARE ANTICIPATED IN
OUR NORTHERN COASTAL COUNTIES AND THAT IS THE REASON FOR THE THREE
COUNTIES BEING INCLUDED IN THE BLIZZARD WARNING.

THE SNOW SHOULD END GRADUALLY FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN OUR
FORECAST AREA FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT.

IT SHOULD BE DRY AND COLD FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

A CLIPPER SYSTEM FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST MAY BRING A SHOT OF
LIGHT SNOW FROM LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.

ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD DRY AIR IS ANTICIPATED FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
EARLY THIS EVENING. BY LATE EVENING, LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BEGIN TO
OVERSPREAD FROM THE WEST-EAST, GENERALLY IN THE 02Z TO 04Z
TIMEFRAME. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE DEVELOPING AT THAT TIME
AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX IS POSSIBLE FOR THE
SOUTHERN TAF SITES, NAMELY KILG/KMIV/KACY AT THE ONSET OF
PRECIPITATION, BUT DURING THE OVERNIGHT, A CHANGEOVER TO ALL LIGHT
SNOW IS EXPECTED. SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS, RANGING MAINLY BETWEEN
1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE DELAWARE VALLEY SITES AND
WESTWARD TO KRDG/KABE, WITH GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH FOR
KMIV/KACY. LIGHT NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE
NORTHEASTERLY DURING THE OVERNIGHT, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO
BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

MONDAY...GENERALLY IFR TO POSSIBLE LOW-END MVFR CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CONTINUE WITH LIGHT SNOW. SOME RAIN/SNOW MIX IS
EXPECTED BY LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR KMIV/KACY.
GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED, WITH GUSTS REACHING BETWEEN
25 TO 30 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
ADDITIONAL DAYTIME ACCUMULATIONS TO AROUND AN INCH, WITH HEAVIER
SNOW DEVELOPING THEN INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL WILL LIKELY BRING
AIR TRAFFIC TO A STANDSTILL ON MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BE LIFR AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN
EXCESS OF ONE FOOT ARE ANTICIPATED AT KPHL WITH GREATER AMOUNTS TO
THE NORTHEAST AND SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

TUESDAY NIGHT...CLEARING IS ANTICIPATED WITH A GUSTY NORTHWEST
WIND.

WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SNOW. CONDITIONS
MAY LOWER INTO THE MVFR OR IFR RANGE FOR A TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
DELAWARE BAY FOR MOST OF TONIGHT. TOWARD THE EARLY MORNING OF
MONDAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE RAMPING UP TO SCA LEVELS AS NORTHEAST
WINDS WILL BE GUSTING UP TO AROUND 30 KNOTS BY THE 12Z TO 15Z
MONDAY TIMEFRAME. FOR THE REST OF MONDAY THEN, CONTINUED
DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON,
WITH GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS EXPECTED FOR DELAWARE BAY AND THE
COASTAL WATERS. BY MONDAY NIGHT, STORM FORCE GUSTS ARE ANTICIPATED
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS WILL BE BUILDING TO BETWEEN 3 AND 6
FEET FOR DELAWARE BAY DURING MONDAY AND INTO MONDAY NIGHT, WITH
SEAS EVENTUALLY BUILDING TO BETWEEN 10 AND 16 FEET FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS LATER MONDAY NIGHT. MARINE HEADLINES INCLUDE A GALE WARNING
FOR DELAWARE BAY AND FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE MAY TO
FENWICK ISLAND, FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY,
WITH STORM WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS FROM SANDY HOOK
TO CAPE MAY, NJ THROUGH THE DAYTIME TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...A MARINE STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY. A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE WATERS OFF DELAWARE AND FOR DELAWARE BAY.

TUESDAY NIGHT...GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY. FREEZING SPRAY
WILL BE AN ISSUE, AS WELL.

WEDNESDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
ADDITIONAL FREEZING SPRAY ISSUES.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WE HAVE ISSUED A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT`S HIGH TIDE
ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND ON DELAWARE BAY.
WITH THE STRENGTHENING STORM OFF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC COAST AND THE
STRONG NORTHEAST TO NORTH WIND, MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING APPEARS
LIKELY.

WE ARE THINKING THAT THERE COULD BE SOME MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ON
THE TIDAL DELAWARE RIVER AND PERHAPS ON THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE OF
CHESAPEAKE BAY. HOWEVER, WE HAVE TIME TO ADDRESS THAT WITH AN
ADVISORY, IF NECESSARY.

ALSO, WE WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE DAYTIME HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY. IF
THE WIND IS SLOW TO BACK TO THE NORTHWEST, WE MAY EXPERIENCE
ANOTHER CYCLE WITH MINOR TO MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     PAZ070-071-103>106.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-101-102.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ001-007>010-015>019-021>025-027.
     COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR NJZ012>014-016-020>027.
     BLIZZARD WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE MONDAY
     NIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
MARINE...STORM WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM NOON MONDAY TO 6 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430-
     431-454-455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/KLINE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO









000
FXUS61 KPHI 251805
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
105 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION TODAY, REACHING A LATE DAY POSITION FROM THE DELMARVA WEST
INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT LOW WILL REACH
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN TURN NORTH NORTHEAST,
INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY AS IT NEARS CAPE COD TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL
REDEVELOP ON THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE 12:30 PM UPDATE, WE HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES FROM PHL
SOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK FROM WARMING TO MUCH MORE AS THE DAY GOES
ON. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR HOLD OFF ANY PRECIPITATION TILL THIS
EVENING, THIS FORECAST UPDATE TAKES OUT AMY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION TILL THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE, AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY PULLS FARTHER TO
OUR NORTHEAST AN ARCTIC-TYPE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION
FROM LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING SHOWS ONE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THIS IS DRIVING
THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY. WAY BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS THE
ENERGY THAT WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN THE MUCH LARGER COASTAL NOR`EASTER EXPECTED ON
MONDAY- TUESDAY.

OVERALL A MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BY
THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. THE MORNING STRATOCU
SHOULD LIFT AND MIX OUT A LITTLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DECENT
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 40F THIS
AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY, AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
ADVECT IN BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
BROAD SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, RIDING ALONG THE SAGGING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING, WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND TAKE MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING WAA, IN RESPONSE TO THIS
PROCESS, WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION AS A LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BREAK
OUT FROM WEST-EAST. ONSET TIMING IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE INCREASING CHANCES
DURING THE LATE EVENING. PTYPE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE
TO TRANSITION COLDER (BELOW 0C) JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...WAA SHOULD KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF DOVER WHILE NORTHWARD
IS ALL SNOW.

DECENT CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT, BOTH
THERMALLY AND DYNAMICALLY. GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A NOSE OF A TENTH OF
LIQUID FROM A PHL/ABE LINE WEST SO THIS IS WHERE WE SHOULD SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" IN AND AROUND
PHILLY, 2-3" FARTHER WEST TOWARDS RDG...MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS SATURDAY MORNING.

EVEN THOUGH THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WE DID
NOT WANT TO ADD TO ANY CONFUSION WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES DEALING WITH THE SAME EVENT...JUST TWO DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY. GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL STORM BEGINNING
LATER ON MONDAY...SEE LONG TERM DISCO...WE DECIDED TO FORGO AN
ADVISORY BUT MAKE MENTION OF THE EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL IN THE
HWO/WSW PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**MAJOR DISRUPTIVE SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
 MORNING PHILLY AREA NEWD TO NEW ENGLAND...WINTER STORM WATCH IN
 PLACE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA**

**BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONMOUTH, OCEAN, AND
 MIDDLESEX COUNTIES**

500 MB: A STRONG SHORT WAVE MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INTENSIFIES INTO A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY. RIDGING
IN THE WAKE OF ITS MARITIMES DEPARTURE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE REACHES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH A TEMPORARILY FLATTENED WESTERLY FLOW
NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES (ENERGY USE): BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MON-WED;  NEAR NORMAL FRI,  CHILLING
AGAIN SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 MAV/MET FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THE 00Z/25 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE 05Z/25
WPC D4-8 ELEMENTS OF DEWPOINTS/WIND/SKY/POP/MAX-MIN TEMPS WERE NOT USED
FOR THE LONGER RANGE DUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT
STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

THEREFORE...THERE WAS NO UPDATE OF THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY
IN THE EARLY ISSUANCE TODAY.



THE DAILIES...
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WSA IN DIFFERING SEGMENTS TO BE REFINED WHEN
WATCHES CONVERT TO WARNINGS AND OR ADVISORIES.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE 00Z/25 CYCLE WITH THE NAM THE MAIN OUTLIER
RIGHT NOW. THE UKMET IS LARGE BUT A FASTER DEPARTURE THAN THE ECMWF.

THE 00Z/06ZNAM WAS ACCEPTABLE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AND THEREAFTER
DID NOT RELY ON THE NAM FOR ITS QPF...INSTEAD THIS FORECAST IS
BASED HEAVILY ON NCEP QPF/SNOWFALL AS WELL AS THE 00Z/25 ECMWF
AND GFS BLEND.

MONDAY: SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BUT AN ADVISORY NOT ISSUED
SINCE WE DID NOT WISH TO DRAW ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE POTENTIALLY
VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TOO WARM FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION
FAR SNJ AND MUCH OF THE DELMARVA. THE ARCTIC FRONT AND ITS SLOWLY
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER COLD IS CRUCIAL FOR THE LIFT OF THE SELY
850MB FLOW AND A GENERAL SNOW IN EASTERN PA/MUCH OF NJ. COMMUTES
IMPACTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE.


MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ETC ALL
HINGING ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM. OVERALL, THIS
LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR STORM FOR US AND POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
IN NE NJ. OUR FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLY CONSERVATIVE.

BANDING IN THE COMMA HEAD WITH A BENT BACK FRONT ALOFT LOOKS TO BE
A MAJOR PLAYER...GENERATING SNOWFALL RATES MONDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AN HOUR ACROSS NJ AND PORTIONS OF E PA. IF
THE 00Z/06Z NAM MASS FIELDS ALOFT ARE CORRECT THEN ALL THIS HEAVY SNOW
WOULD MISS TO THE EAST.

THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN E PA AND NJ ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THOSE PLANS MAY NEED MAJOR
ALTERATION/CANCELLATION. BE PREPARED WITH ALTERNATE PLANS. "IF"
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH, WE MAY CONVERT TO WARNINGS LATE TODAY.

WATCHES DO NOT MEAN A DONE DEAL BUT DO PAY ATTENTION. A DRIER
MORE POWDERY SNOW WILL BE EASIER TO ACCUMULATE IN THE COLDER
AIRMASS THAN JUST WHAT OCCURRED EARLY SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME A
FACTOR IN BLOWING/DRIFTING, MAINLY IN NJ/DEL.


TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU INTO FRI...THIS FORECAST WAS NOT UPDATED ON THIS MID SHIFT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE BEGUN
TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME RAIN/SNOW
LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT. STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
MOST OF THE DAY UNDER WESTERLY WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLE TO
NEAR 20 KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD FROM THE WEST-EAST BY LATE TONIGHT.
MINIMAL RAIN/SNOW MIXING EXPECTED VCNTY KMIV TOWARD 12Z MONDAY.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AROUND
1-2 INCHES PHL/ILG/TTN/PNE, MAYBE 2-3 INCHES RDG/ABE.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR OR INTERMITTENT IFR
NORTH IN SNOW OR PERIODS OF SNOW. N-NE WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT AT
TIMES WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE VCNTY KACY. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PLOWABLE AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FOR AIRPORT CLOSURES AT NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY DEPENDENT ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND RATE OF FALL AS WELL
AS DRIFTING.

TUE...IFR PROBABLE EARLY IN COMMA HEAD BENT BACK BANDING OF THE BIG
NOREASTER THEN PROBABLY BECOMING VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY STRONGER VCNTY KACY.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WED: MOSTLY VFR. N-NW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE:

THURSDAY: CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE IN A PERIOD OF PCPN DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TODAY...WE REMOVED THE SCA FROM THE OCEAN FRONT AS WINDS AND
SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

TONIGHT...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH
LATE AS WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE AS DO THE WINDS. GALE WARNINGS/STORM
WATCHES IN PLACE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS BUT POCKETS
OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. HAVE FORECAST WHERE THE STORM FORCE 50 KT GUSTS
OVER THE NJ WATER WHERE THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR, BUT WITH THE
UNDERSTANDING THAT ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN THE
DELAWARE WATERS AS WELL. THE HEADLINES ARE THE MOST LIKELY WORST
CASE SCENARIO.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE, MAINLY THE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-015>019-027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ021>025.
     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     454-455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/KLINE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER/KLINE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/KLINE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 251805
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
105 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION TODAY, REACHING A LATE DAY POSITION FROM THE DELMARVA WEST
INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT LOW WILL REACH
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN TURN NORTH NORTHEAST,
INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY AS IT NEARS CAPE COD TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL
REDEVELOP ON THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE 12:30 PM UPDATE, WE HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES FROM PHL
SOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK FROM WARMING TO MUCH MORE AS THE DAY GOES
ON. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR HOLD OFF ANY PRECIPITATION TILL THIS
EVENING, THIS FORECAST UPDATE TAKES OUT AMY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION TILL THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE, AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY PULLS FARTHER TO
OUR NORTHEAST AN ARCTIC-TYPE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION
FROM LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING SHOWS ONE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THIS IS DRIVING
THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY. WAY BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS THE
ENERGY THAT WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN THE MUCH LARGER COASTAL NOR`EASTER EXPECTED ON
MONDAY- TUESDAY.

OVERALL A MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BY
THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. THE MORNING STRATOCU
SHOULD LIFT AND MIX OUT A LITTLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DECENT
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 40F THIS
AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY, AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
ADVECT IN BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
BROAD SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, RIDING ALONG THE SAGGING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING, WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND TAKE MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING WAA, IN RESPONSE TO THIS
PROCESS, WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION AS A LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BREAK
OUT FROM WEST-EAST. ONSET TIMING IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE INCREASING CHANCES
DURING THE LATE EVENING. PTYPE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE
TO TRANSITION COLDER (BELOW 0C) JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...WAA SHOULD KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF DOVER WHILE NORTHWARD
IS ALL SNOW.

DECENT CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT, BOTH
THERMALLY AND DYNAMICALLY. GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A NOSE OF A TENTH OF
LIQUID FROM A PHL/ABE LINE WEST SO THIS IS WHERE WE SHOULD SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" IN AND AROUND
PHILLY, 2-3" FARTHER WEST TOWARDS RDG...MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS SATURDAY MORNING.

EVEN THOUGH THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WE DID
NOT WANT TO ADD TO ANY CONFUSION WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES DEALING WITH THE SAME EVENT...JUST TWO DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY. GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL STORM BEGINNING
LATER ON MONDAY...SEE LONG TERM DISCO...WE DECIDED TO FORGO AN
ADVISORY BUT MAKE MENTION OF THE EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL IN THE
HWO/WSW PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**MAJOR DISRUPTIVE SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
 MORNING PHILLY AREA NEWD TO NEW ENGLAND...WINTER STORM WATCH IN
 PLACE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA**

**BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONMOUTH, OCEAN, AND
 MIDDLESEX COUNTIES**

500 MB: A STRONG SHORT WAVE MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INTENSIFIES INTO A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY. RIDGING
IN THE WAKE OF ITS MARITIMES DEPARTURE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE REACHES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH A TEMPORARILY FLATTENED WESTERLY FLOW
NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES (ENERGY USE): BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MON-WED;  NEAR NORMAL FRI,  CHILLING
AGAIN SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 MAV/MET FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THE 00Z/25 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE 05Z/25
WPC D4-8 ELEMENTS OF DEWPOINTS/WIND/SKY/POP/MAX-MIN TEMPS WERE NOT USED
FOR THE LONGER RANGE DUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT
STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

THEREFORE...THERE WAS NO UPDATE OF THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY
IN THE EARLY ISSUANCE TODAY.



THE DAILIES...
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WSA IN DIFFERING SEGMENTS TO BE REFINED WHEN
WATCHES CONVERT TO WARNINGS AND OR ADVISORIES.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE 00Z/25 CYCLE WITH THE NAM THE MAIN OUTLIER
RIGHT NOW. THE UKMET IS LARGE BUT A FASTER DEPARTURE THAN THE ECMWF.

THE 00Z/06ZNAM WAS ACCEPTABLE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AND THEREAFTER
DID NOT RELY ON THE NAM FOR ITS QPF...INSTEAD THIS FORECAST IS
BASED HEAVILY ON NCEP QPF/SNOWFALL AS WELL AS THE 00Z/25 ECMWF
AND GFS BLEND.

MONDAY: SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BUT AN ADVISORY NOT ISSUED
SINCE WE DID NOT WISH TO DRAW ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE POTENTIALLY
VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TOO WARM FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION
FAR SNJ AND MUCH OF THE DELMARVA. THE ARCTIC FRONT AND ITS SLOWLY
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER COLD IS CRUCIAL FOR THE LIFT OF THE SELY
850MB FLOW AND A GENERAL SNOW IN EASTERN PA/MUCH OF NJ. COMMUTES
IMPACTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE.


MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ETC ALL
HINGING ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM. OVERALL, THIS
LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR STORM FOR US AND POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
IN NE NJ. OUR FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLY CONSERVATIVE.

BANDING IN THE COMMA HEAD WITH A BENT BACK FRONT ALOFT LOOKS TO BE
A MAJOR PLAYER...GENERATING SNOWFALL RATES MONDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AN HOUR ACROSS NJ AND PORTIONS OF E PA. IF
THE 00Z/06Z NAM MASS FIELDS ALOFT ARE CORRECT THEN ALL THIS HEAVY SNOW
WOULD MISS TO THE EAST.

THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN E PA AND NJ ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THOSE PLANS MAY NEED MAJOR
ALTERATION/CANCELLATION. BE PREPARED WITH ALTERNATE PLANS. "IF"
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH, WE MAY CONVERT TO WARNINGS LATE TODAY.

WATCHES DO NOT MEAN A DONE DEAL BUT DO PAY ATTENTION. A DRIER
MORE POWDERY SNOW WILL BE EASIER TO ACCUMULATE IN THE COLDER
AIRMASS THAN JUST WHAT OCCURRED EARLY SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME A
FACTOR IN BLOWING/DRIFTING, MAINLY IN NJ/DEL.


TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU INTO FRI...THIS FORECAST WAS NOT UPDATED ON THIS MID SHIFT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE BEGUN
TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME RAIN/SNOW
LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT. STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
MOST OF THE DAY UNDER WESTERLY WINDS WITH A FEW GUSTS POSSIBLE TO
NEAR 20 KT.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD FROM THE WEST-EAST BY LATE TONIGHT.
MINIMAL RAIN/SNOW MIXING EXPECTED VCNTY KMIV TOWARD 12Z MONDAY.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AROUND
1-2 INCHES PHL/ILG/TTN/PNE, MAYBE 2-3 INCHES RDG/ABE.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR OR INTERMITTENT IFR
NORTH IN SNOW OR PERIODS OF SNOW. N-NE WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT AT
TIMES WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE VCNTY KACY. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PLOWABLE AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FOR AIRPORT CLOSURES AT NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY DEPENDENT ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND RATE OF FALL AS WELL
AS DRIFTING.

TUE...IFR PROBABLE EARLY IN COMMA HEAD BENT BACK BANDING OF THE BIG
NOREASTER THEN PROBABLY BECOMING VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY STRONGER VCNTY KACY.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WED: MOSTLY VFR. N-NW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE:

THURSDAY: CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE IN A PERIOD OF PCPN DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
REST OF TODAY...WE REMOVED THE SCA FROM THE OCEAN FRONT AS WINDS AND
SEAS HAVE FALLEN BELOW THRESHOLDS.

TONIGHT...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH
LATE AS WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE AS DO THE WINDS. GALE WARNINGS/STORM
WATCHES IN PLACE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS BUT POCKETS
OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. HAVE FORECAST WHERE THE STORM FORCE 50 KT GUSTS
OVER THE NJ WATER WHERE THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR, BUT WITH THE
UNDERSTANDING THAT ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN THE
DELAWARE WATERS AS WELL. THE HEADLINES ARE THE MOST LIKELY WORST
CASE SCENARIO.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE, MAINLY THE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-015>019-027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ021>025.
     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     454-455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/KLINE
NEAR TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER/KLINE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER/KLINE
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER/KLINE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 251733
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1233 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION TODAY, REACHING A LATE DAY POSITION FROM THE DELMARVA WEST
INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT LOW WILL REACH
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN TURN NORTH NORTHEAST,
INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY AS IT NEARS CAPE COD TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL
REDEVELOP ON THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE 12:30 PM UPDATE, WE HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES FROM PHL
SOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK FROM WARMING TO MUCH MORE AS THE DAY GOES
ON. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR HOLD OFF ANY PRECIPITATION TILL THIS
EVENING, THIS FORECAST UPDATE TAKES OUT AMY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION TILL THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE, AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY PULLS FARTHER TO
OUR NORTHEAST AN ARCTIC-TYPE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION
FROM LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING SHOWS ONE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THIS IS DRIVING
THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY. WAY BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS THE
ENERGY THAT WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN THE MUCH LARGER COASTAL NOR`EASTER EXPECTED ON
MONDAY- TUESDAY.

OVERALL A MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BY
THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. THE MORNING STRATOCU
SHOULD LIFT AND MIX OUT A LITTLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DECENT
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 40F THIS
AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY, AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
ADVECT IN BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
BROAD SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, RIDING ALONG THE SAGGING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING, WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND TAKE MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING WAA, IN RESPONSE TO THIS
PROCESS, WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION AS A LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BREAK
OUT FROM WEST-EAST. ONSET TIMING IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE INCREASING CHANCES
DURING THE LATE EVENING. PTYPE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE
TO TRANSITION COLDER (BELOW 0C) JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...WAA SHOULD KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF DOVER WHILE NORTHWARD
IS ALL SNOW.

DECENT CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT, BOTH
THERMALLY AND DYNAMICALLY. GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A NOSE OF A TENTH OF
LIQUID FROM A PHL/ABE LINE WEST SO THIS IS WHERE WE SHOULD SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" IN AND AROUND
PHILLY, 2-3" FARTHER WEST TOWARDS RDG...MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS SATURDAY MORNING.

EVEN THOUGH THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WE DID
NOT WANT TO ADD TO ANY CONFUSION WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES DEALING WITH THE SAME EVENT...JUST TWO DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY. GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL STORM BEGINNING
LATER ON MONDAY...SEE LONG TERM DISCO...WE DECIDED TO FORGO AN
ADVISORY BUT MAKE MENTION OF THE EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL IN THE
HWO/WSW PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**MAJOR DISRUPTIVE SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
 MORNING PHILLY AREA NEWD TO NEW ENGLAND...WINTER STORM WATCH IN
 PLACE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA**

**BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONMOUTH, OCEAN, AND
 MIDDLESEX COUNTIES**

500 MB: A STRONG SHORT WAVE MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INTENSIFIES INTO A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY. RIDGING
IN THE WAKE OF ITS MARITIMES DEPARTURE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE REACHES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH A TEMPORARILY FLATTENED WESTERLY FLOW
NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES (ENERGY USE): BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MON-WED;  NEAR NORMAL FRI,  CHILLING
AGAIN SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 MAV/MET FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THE 00Z/25 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE 05Z/25
WPC D4-8 ELEMENTS OF DEWPOINTS/WIND/SKY/POP/MAX-MIN TEMPS WERE NOT USED
FOR THE LONGER RANGE DUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT
STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

THEREFORE...THERE WAS NO UPDATE OF THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY
IN THE EARLY ISSUANCE TODAY.



THE DAILIES...
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WSA IN DIFFERING SEGMENTS TO BE REFINED WHEN
WATCHES CONVERT TO WARNINGS AND OR ADVISORIES.

MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES OF NE NJ ARE SEPARATED AS WINTER STORM
WATCH, BUT READY TO TO CONVERT TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IF THREE
SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ARE CORRECT.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE 00Z/25 CYCLE WITH THE NAM THE MAIN OUTLIER
RIGHT NOW. THE UKMET IS LARGE BUT A FASTER DEPARTURE THAN THE ECMWF.

THE 00Z/06ZNAM WAS ACCEPTABLE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AND THEREAFTER
DID NOT RELY ON THE NAM FOR ITS QPF...INSTEAD THIS FORECAST IS
BASED HEAVILY ON NCEP QPF/SNOWFALL AS WELL AS THE 00Z/25 ECMWF
AND GFS BLEND.

MONDAY: SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BUT AN ADVISORY NOT ISSUED
SINCE WE DID NOT WISH TO DRAW ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE POTENTIALLY
VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TOO WARM FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION
FAR SNJ AND MUCH OF THE DELMARVA. THE ARCTIC FRONT AND ITS SLOWLY
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER COLD IS CRUCIAL FOR THE LIFT OF THE SELY
850MB FLOW AND A GENERAL SNOW IN EASTERN PA/MUCH OF NJ. COMMUTES
IMPACTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE.


MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ETC ALL
HINGING ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM. OVERALL, THIS
LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR STORM FOR US AND POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
IN NE NJ. OUR FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLY CONSERVATIVE.

BANDING IN THE COMMA HEAD WITH A BENT BACK FRONT ALOFT LOOKS TO BE
A MAJOR PLAYER...GENERATING SNOWFALL RATES MONDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AN HOUR ACROSS NJ AND PORTIONS OF E PA. IF
THE 00Z/06Z NAM MASS FIELDS ALOFT ARE CORRECT THEN ALL THIS HEAVY SNOW
WOULD MISS TO THE EAST.

THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN E PA AND NJ ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THOSE PLANS MAY NEED MAJOR
ALTERATION/CANCELLATION. BE PREPARED WITH ALTERNATE PLANS. "IF"
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH, WE MAY CONVERT TO WARNINGS LATE TODAY.

WATCHES DO NOT MEAN A DONE DEAL BUT DO PAY ATTENTION. A DRIER
MORE POWDERY SNOW WILL BE EASIER TO ACCUMULATE IN THE COLDER
AIRMASS THAN JUST WHAT OCCURRED EARLY SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME A
FACTOR IN BLOWING/DRIFTING, MAINLY IN NJ/DEL.


TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU INTO FRI...THIS FORECAST WAS NOT UPDATED ON THIS MID SHIFT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE BEGUN
TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME RAIN/SNOW
LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT. STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
MOST OF THE DAY UNDER WESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED TO
NEAR 20 KT WITH THE CFP LATER THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD FROM THE WEST-EAST BY LATE TONIGHT.
MINIMAL RAIN/SNOW MIXING EXPECTED VCNTY KMIV TOWARD 12Z MONDAY.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AROUND
1-2 INCHES PHL/ILG/TTN/PNE, MAYBE 2-3 INCHES RDG/ABE.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR OR INTERMITTENT IFR
NORTH IN SNOW OR PERIODS OF SNOW. N-NE WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT AT
TIMES WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE VCNTY KACY. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PLOWABLE AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FOR AIRPORT CLOSURES AT NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY DEPENDENT ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND RATE OF FALL AS WELL
AS DRIFTING.

TUE...IFR PROBABLE EARLY IN COMMA HEAD BENT BACK BANDING OF THE BIG
NOREASTER THEN PROBABLY BECOMING VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY STRONGER VCNTY KACY.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WED: MOSTLY VFR. N-NW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE:

THURSDAY: CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE IN A PERIOD OF PCPN DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WE REMOVED THE SCA ON THE BAY AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE BELOW
THRESHOLDS. THE OCEAN FRONT CONTINUES TO GO THROUGH 18Z TODAY THOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR SOUTHERN WATERS MAY BE PULLED SOONER AS SEAS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH
LATE AS WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE AS DO THE WINDS. GALE WARNINGS/STORM
WATCHES IN PLACE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS BUT POCKETS
OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. HAVE FORECAST WHERE THE STORM FORCE 50 KT GUSTS
OVER THE NJ WATER WHERE THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR, BUT WITH THE
UNDERSTANDING THAT ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN THE
DELAWARE WATERS AS WELL. THE HEADLINES ARE THE MOST LIKELY WORST
CASE SCENARIO.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE, MAINLY THE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-015>019-027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ021>025.
     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     454-455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER/KLINE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 251733
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1233 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION TODAY, REACHING A LATE DAY POSITION FROM THE DELMARVA WEST
INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT LOW WILL REACH
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN TURN NORTH NORTHEAST,
INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY AS IT NEARS CAPE COD TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL
REDEVELOP ON THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE 12:30 PM UPDATE, WE HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES FROM PHL
SOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK FROM WARMING TO MUCH MORE AS THE DAY GOES
ON. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR HOLD OFF ANY PRECIPITATION TILL THIS
EVENING, THIS FORECAST UPDATE TAKES OUT AMY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION TILL THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE, AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY PULLS FARTHER TO
OUR NORTHEAST AN ARCTIC-TYPE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION
FROM LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING SHOWS ONE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THIS IS DRIVING
THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY. WAY BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS THE
ENERGY THAT WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN THE MUCH LARGER COASTAL NOR`EASTER EXPECTED ON
MONDAY- TUESDAY.

OVERALL A MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BY
THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. THE MORNING STRATOCU
SHOULD LIFT AND MIX OUT A LITTLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DECENT
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 40F THIS
AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY, AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
ADVECT IN BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
BROAD SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, RIDING ALONG THE SAGGING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING, WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND TAKE MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING WAA, IN RESPONSE TO THIS
PROCESS, WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION AS A LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BREAK
OUT FROM WEST-EAST. ONSET TIMING IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE INCREASING CHANCES
DURING THE LATE EVENING. PTYPE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE
TO TRANSITION COLDER (BELOW 0C) JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...WAA SHOULD KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF DOVER WHILE NORTHWARD
IS ALL SNOW.

DECENT CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT, BOTH
THERMALLY AND DYNAMICALLY. GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A NOSE OF A TENTH OF
LIQUID FROM A PHL/ABE LINE WEST SO THIS IS WHERE WE SHOULD SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" IN AND AROUND
PHILLY, 2-3" FARTHER WEST TOWARDS RDG...MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS SATURDAY MORNING.

EVEN THOUGH THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WE DID
NOT WANT TO ADD TO ANY CONFUSION WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES DEALING WITH THE SAME EVENT...JUST TWO DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY. GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL STORM BEGINNING
LATER ON MONDAY...SEE LONG TERM DISCO...WE DECIDED TO FORGO AN
ADVISORY BUT MAKE MENTION OF THE EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL IN THE
HWO/WSW PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**MAJOR DISRUPTIVE SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
 MORNING PHILLY AREA NEWD TO NEW ENGLAND...WINTER STORM WATCH IN
 PLACE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA**

**BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONMOUTH, OCEAN, AND
 MIDDLESEX COUNTIES**

500 MB: A STRONG SHORT WAVE MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INTENSIFIES INTO A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY. RIDGING
IN THE WAKE OF ITS MARITIMES DEPARTURE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE REACHES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH A TEMPORARILY FLATTENED WESTERLY FLOW
NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES (ENERGY USE): BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MON-WED;  NEAR NORMAL FRI,  CHILLING
AGAIN SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 MAV/MET FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THE 00Z/25 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE 05Z/25
WPC D4-8 ELEMENTS OF DEWPOINTS/WIND/SKY/POP/MAX-MIN TEMPS WERE NOT USED
FOR THE LONGER RANGE DUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT
STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

THEREFORE...THERE WAS NO UPDATE OF THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY
IN THE EARLY ISSUANCE TODAY.



THE DAILIES...
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WSA IN DIFFERING SEGMENTS TO BE REFINED WHEN
WATCHES CONVERT TO WARNINGS AND OR ADVISORIES.

MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES OF NE NJ ARE SEPARATED AS WINTER STORM
WATCH, BUT READY TO TO CONVERT TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IF THREE
SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ARE CORRECT.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE 00Z/25 CYCLE WITH THE NAM THE MAIN OUTLIER
RIGHT NOW. THE UKMET IS LARGE BUT A FASTER DEPARTURE THAN THE ECMWF.

THE 00Z/06ZNAM WAS ACCEPTABLE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AND THEREAFTER
DID NOT RELY ON THE NAM FOR ITS QPF...INSTEAD THIS FORECAST IS
BASED HEAVILY ON NCEP QPF/SNOWFALL AS WELL AS THE 00Z/25 ECMWF
AND GFS BLEND.

MONDAY: SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BUT AN ADVISORY NOT ISSUED
SINCE WE DID NOT WISH TO DRAW ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE POTENTIALLY
VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TOO WARM FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION
FAR SNJ AND MUCH OF THE DELMARVA. THE ARCTIC FRONT AND ITS SLOWLY
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER COLD IS CRUCIAL FOR THE LIFT OF THE SELY
850MB FLOW AND A GENERAL SNOW IN EASTERN PA/MUCH OF NJ. COMMUTES
IMPACTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE.


MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ETC ALL
HINGING ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM. OVERALL, THIS
LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR STORM FOR US AND POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
IN NE NJ. OUR FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLY CONSERVATIVE.

BANDING IN THE COMMA HEAD WITH A BENT BACK FRONT ALOFT LOOKS TO BE
A MAJOR PLAYER...GENERATING SNOWFALL RATES MONDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AN HOUR ACROSS NJ AND PORTIONS OF E PA. IF
THE 00Z/06Z NAM MASS FIELDS ALOFT ARE CORRECT THEN ALL THIS HEAVY SNOW
WOULD MISS TO THE EAST.

THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN E PA AND NJ ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THOSE PLANS MAY NEED MAJOR
ALTERATION/CANCELLATION. BE PREPARED WITH ALTERNATE PLANS. "IF"
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH, WE MAY CONVERT TO WARNINGS LATE TODAY.

WATCHES DO NOT MEAN A DONE DEAL BUT DO PAY ATTENTION. A DRIER
MORE POWDERY SNOW WILL BE EASIER TO ACCUMULATE IN THE COLDER
AIRMASS THAN JUST WHAT OCCURRED EARLY SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME A
FACTOR IN BLOWING/DRIFTING, MAINLY IN NJ/DEL.


TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU INTO FRI...THIS FORECAST WAS NOT UPDATED ON THIS MID SHIFT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE BEGUN
TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME RAIN/SNOW
LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT. STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
MOST OF THE DAY UNDER WESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED TO
NEAR 20 KT WITH THE CFP LATER THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD FROM THE WEST-EAST BY LATE TONIGHT.
MINIMAL RAIN/SNOW MIXING EXPECTED VCNTY KMIV TOWARD 12Z MONDAY.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AROUND
1-2 INCHES PHL/ILG/TTN/PNE, MAYBE 2-3 INCHES RDG/ABE.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR OR INTERMITTENT IFR
NORTH IN SNOW OR PERIODS OF SNOW. N-NE WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT AT
TIMES WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE VCNTY KACY. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PLOWABLE AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FOR AIRPORT CLOSURES AT NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY DEPENDENT ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND RATE OF FALL AS WELL
AS DRIFTING.

TUE...IFR PROBABLE EARLY IN COMMA HEAD BENT BACK BANDING OF THE BIG
NOREASTER THEN PROBABLY BECOMING VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY STRONGER VCNTY KACY.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WED: MOSTLY VFR. N-NW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE:

THURSDAY: CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE IN A PERIOD OF PCPN DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WE REMOVED THE SCA ON THE BAY AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE BELOW
THRESHOLDS. THE OCEAN FRONT CONTINUES TO GO THROUGH 18Z TODAY THOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR SOUTHERN WATERS MAY BE PULLED SOONER AS SEAS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH
LATE AS WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE AS DO THE WINDS. GALE WARNINGS/STORM
WATCHES IN PLACE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS BUT POCKETS
OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. HAVE FORECAST WHERE THE STORM FORCE 50 KT GUSTS
OVER THE NJ WATER WHERE THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR, BUT WITH THE
UNDERSTANDING THAT ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN THE
DELAWARE WATERS AS WELL. THE HEADLINES ARE THE MOST LIKELY WORST
CASE SCENARIO.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE, MAINLY THE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-015>019-027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ021>025.
     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     454-455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER/KLINE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 251733
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1233 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION TODAY, REACHING A LATE DAY POSITION FROM THE DELMARVA WEST
INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT LOW WILL REACH
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN TURN NORTH NORTHEAST,
INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY AS IT NEARS CAPE COD TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL
REDEVELOP ON THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE 12:30 PM UPDATE, WE HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES FROM PHL
SOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK FROM WARMING TO MUCH MORE AS THE DAY GOES
ON. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR HOLD OFF ANY PRECIPITATION TILL THIS
EVENING, THIS FORECAST UPDATE TAKES OUT AMY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION TILL THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE, AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY PULLS FARTHER TO
OUR NORTHEAST AN ARCTIC-TYPE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION
FROM LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING SHOWS ONE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THIS IS DRIVING
THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY. WAY BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS THE
ENERGY THAT WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN THE MUCH LARGER COASTAL NOR`EASTER EXPECTED ON
MONDAY- TUESDAY.

OVERALL A MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BY
THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. THE MORNING STRATOCU
SHOULD LIFT AND MIX OUT A LITTLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DECENT
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 40F THIS
AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY, AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
ADVECT IN BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
BROAD SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, RIDING ALONG THE SAGGING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING, WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND TAKE MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING WAA, IN RESPONSE TO THIS
PROCESS, WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION AS A LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BREAK
OUT FROM WEST-EAST. ONSET TIMING IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE INCREASING CHANCES
DURING THE LATE EVENING. PTYPE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE
TO TRANSITION COLDER (BELOW 0C) JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...WAA SHOULD KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF DOVER WHILE NORTHWARD
IS ALL SNOW.

DECENT CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT, BOTH
THERMALLY AND DYNAMICALLY. GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A NOSE OF A TENTH OF
LIQUID FROM A PHL/ABE LINE WEST SO THIS IS WHERE WE SHOULD SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" IN AND AROUND
PHILLY, 2-3" FARTHER WEST TOWARDS RDG...MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS SATURDAY MORNING.

EVEN THOUGH THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WE DID
NOT WANT TO ADD TO ANY CONFUSION WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES DEALING WITH THE SAME EVENT...JUST TWO DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY. GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL STORM BEGINNING
LATER ON MONDAY...SEE LONG TERM DISCO...WE DECIDED TO FORGO AN
ADVISORY BUT MAKE MENTION OF THE EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL IN THE
HWO/WSW PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**MAJOR DISRUPTIVE SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
 MORNING PHILLY AREA NEWD TO NEW ENGLAND...WINTER STORM WATCH IN
 PLACE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA**

**BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONMOUTH, OCEAN, AND
 MIDDLESEX COUNTIES**

500 MB: A STRONG SHORT WAVE MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INTENSIFIES INTO A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY. RIDGING
IN THE WAKE OF ITS MARITIMES DEPARTURE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE REACHES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH A TEMPORARILY FLATTENED WESTERLY FLOW
NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES (ENERGY USE): BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MON-WED;  NEAR NORMAL FRI,  CHILLING
AGAIN SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 MAV/MET FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THE 00Z/25 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE 05Z/25
WPC D4-8 ELEMENTS OF DEWPOINTS/WIND/SKY/POP/MAX-MIN TEMPS WERE NOT USED
FOR THE LONGER RANGE DUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT
STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

THEREFORE...THERE WAS NO UPDATE OF THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY
IN THE EARLY ISSUANCE TODAY.



THE DAILIES...
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WSA IN DIFFERING SEGMENTS TO BE REFINED WHEN
WATCHES CONVERT TO WARNINGS AND OR ADVISORIES.

MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES OF NE NJ ARE SEPARATED AS WINTER STORM
WATCH, BUT READY TO TO CONVERT TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IF THREE
SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ARE CORRECT.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE 00Z/25 CYCLE WITH THE NAM THE MAIN OUTLIER
RIGHT NOW. THE UKMET IS LARGE BUT A FASTER DEPARTURE THAN THE ECMWF.

THE 00Z/06ZNAM WAS ACCEPTABLE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AND THEREAFTER
DID NOT RELY ON THE NAM FOR ITS QPF...INSTEAD THIS FORECAST IS
BASED HEAVILY ON NCEP QPF/SNOWFALL AS WELL AS THE 00Z/25 ECMWF
AND GFS BLEND.

MONDAY: SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BUT AN ADVISORY NOT ISSUED
SINCE WE DID NOT WISH TO DRAW ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE POTENTIALLY
VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TOO WARM FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION
FAR SNJ AND MUCH OF THE DELMARVA. THE ARCTIC FRONT AND ITS SLOWLY
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER COLD IS CRUCIAL FOR THE LIFT OF THE SELY
850MB FLOW AND A GENERAL SNOW IN EASTERN PA/MUCH OF NJ. COMMUTES
IMPACTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE.


MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ETC ALL
HINGING ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM. OVERALL, THIS
LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR STORM FOR US AND POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
IN NE NJ. OUR FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLY CONSERVATIVE.

BANDING IN THE COMMA HEAD WITH A BENT BACK FRONT ALOFT LOOKS TO BE
A MAJOR PLAYER...GENERATING SNOWFALL RATES MONDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AN HOUR ACROSS NJ AND PORTIONS OF E PA. IF
THE 00Z/06Z NAM MASS FIELDS ALOFT ARE CORRECT THEN ALL THIS HEAVY SNOW
WOULD MISS TO THE EAST.

THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN E PA AND NJ ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THOSE PLANS MAY NEED MAJOR
ALTERATION/CANCELLATION. BE PREPARED WITH ALTERNATE PLANS. "IF"
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH, WE MAY CONVERT TO WARNINGS LATE TODAY.

WATCHES DO NOT MEAN A DONE DEAL BUT DO PAY ATTENTION. A DRIER
MORE POWDERY SNOW WILL BE EASIER TO ACCUMULATE IN THE COLDER
AIRMASS THAN JUST WHAT OCCURRED EARLY SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME A
FACTOR IN BLOWING/DRIFTING, MAINLY IN NJ/DEL.


TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU INTO FRI...THIS FORECAST WAS NOT UPDATED ON THIS MID SHIFT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE BEGUN
TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME RAIN/SNOW
LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT. STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
MOST OF THE DAY UNDER WESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED TO
NEAR 20 KT WITH THE CFP LATER THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD FROM THE WEST-EAST BY LATE TONIGHT.
MINIMAL RAIN/SNOW MIXING EXPECTED VCNTY KMIV TOWARD 12Z MONDAY.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AROUND
1-2 INCHES PHL/ILG/TTN/PNE, MAYBE 2-3 INCHES RDG/ABE.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR OR INTERMITTENT IFR
NORTH IN SNOW OR PERIODS OF SNOW. N-NE WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT AT
TIMES WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE VCNTY KACY. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PLOWABLE AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FOR AIRPORT CLOSURES AT NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY DEPENDENT ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND RATE OF FALL AS WELL
AS DRIFTING.

TUE...IFR PROBABLE EARLY IN COMMA HEAD BENT BACK BANDING OF THE BIG
NOREASTER THEN PROBABLY BECOMING VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY STRONGER VCNTY KACY.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WED: MOSTLY VFR. N-NW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE:

THURSDAY: CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE IN A PERIOD OF PCPN DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WE REMOVED THE SCA ON THE BAY AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE BELOW
THRESHOLDS. THE OCEAN FRONT CONTINUES TO GO THROUGH 18Z TODAY THOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR SOUTHERN WATERS MAY BE PULLED SOONER AS SEAS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH
LATE AS WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE AS DO THE WINDS. GALE WARNINGS/STORM
WATCHES IN PLACE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS BUT POCKETS
OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. HAVE FORECAST WHERE THE STORM FORCE 50 KT GUSTS
OVER THE NJ WATER WHERE THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR, BUT WITH THE
UNDERSTANDING THAT ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN THE
DELAWARE WATERS AS WELL. THE HEADLINES ARE THE MOST LIKELY WORST
CASE SCENARIO.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE, MAINLY THE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-015>019-027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ021>025.
     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     454-455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER/KLINE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 251733
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1233 PM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION TODAY, REACHING A LATE DAY POSITION FROM THE DELMARVA WEST
INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT LOW WILL REACH
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN TURN NORTH NORTHEAST,
INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY AS IT NEARS CAPE COD TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL
REDEVELOP ON THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE 12:30 PM UPDATE, WE HAVE INCREASED TEMPERATURES FROM PHL
SOUTH AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT ALONG WITH CLOUD COVER FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. THIS CLOUD COVER SHOULD KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES IN CHECK FROM WARMING TO MUCH MORE AS THE DAY GOES
ON. THE LATEST RAP AND HRRR HOLD OFF ANY PRECIPITATION TILL THIS
EVENING, THIS FORECAST UPDATE TAKES OUT AMY MENTION OF
PRECIPITATION TILL THIS EVENING.

OTHERWISE, AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY PULLS FARTHER TO
OUR NORTHEAST AN ARCTIC-TYPE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION
FROM LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING SHOWS ONE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THIS IS DRIVING
THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY. WAY BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS THE
ENERGY THAT WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN THE MUCH LARGER COASTAL NOR`EASTER EXPECTED ON
MONDAY- TUESDAY.

OVERALL A MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BY
THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. THE MORNING STRATOCU
SHOULD LIFT AND MIX OUT A LITTLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DECENT
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 40F THIS
AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY, AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
ADVECT IN BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
BROAD SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, RIDING ALONG THE SAGGING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING, WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND TAKE MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING WAA, IN RESPONSE TO THIS
PROCESS, WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION AS A LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BREAK
OUT FROM WEST-EAST. ONSET TIMING IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE INCREASING CHANCES
DURING THE LATE EVENING. PTYPE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE
TO TRANSITION COLDER (BELOW 0C) JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...WAA SHOULD KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF DOVER WHILE NORTHWARD
IS ALL SNOW.

DECENT CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT, BOTH
THERMALLY AND DYNAMICALLY. GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A NOSE OF A TENTH OF
LIQUID FROM A PHL/ABE LINE WEST SO THIS IS WHERE WE SHOULD SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" IN AND AROUND
PHILLY, 2-3" FARTHER WEST TOWARDS RDG...MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS SATURDAY MORNING.

EVEN THOUGH THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WE DID
NOT WANT TO ADD TO ANY CONFUSION WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES DEALING WITH THE SAME EVENT...JUST TWO DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY. GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL STORM BEGINNING
LATER ON MONDAY...SEE LONG TERM DISCO...WE DECIDED TO FORGO AN
ADVISORY BUT MAKE MENTION OF THE EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL IN THE
HWO/WSW PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**MAJOR DISRUPTIVE SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
 MORNING PHILLY AREA NEWD TO NEW ENGLAND...WINTER STORM WATCH IN
 PLACE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA**

**BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONMOUTH, OCEAN, AND
 MIDDLESEX COUNTIES**

500 MB: A STRONG SHORT WAVE MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INTENSIFIES INTO A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY. RIDGING
IN THE WAKE OF ITS MARITIMES DEPARTURE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE REACHES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH A TEMPORARILY FLATTENED WESTERLY FLOW
NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES (ENERGY USE): BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MON-WED;  NEAR NORMAL FRI,  CHILLING
AGAIN SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 MAV/MET FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THE 00Z/25 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE 05Z/25
WPC D4-8 ELEMENTS OF DEWPOINTS/WIND/SKY/POP/MAX-MIN TEMPS WERE NOT USED
FOR THE LONGER RANGE DUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT
STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

THEREFORE...THERE WAS NO UPDATE OF THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY
IN THE EARLY ISSUANCE TODAY.



THE DAILIES...
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WSA IN DIFFERING SEGMENTS TO BE REFINED WHEN
WATCHES CONVERT TO WARNINGS AND OR ADVISORIES.

MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES OF NE NJ ARE SEPARATED AS WINTER STORM
WATCH, BUT READY TO TO CONVERT TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IF THREE
SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ARE CORRECT.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE 00Z/25 CYCLE WITH THE NAM THE MAIN OUTLIER
RIGHT NOW. THE UKMET IS LARGE BUT A FASTER DEPARTURE THAN THE ECMWF.

THE 00Z/06ZNAM WAS ACCEPTABLE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AND THEREAFTER
DID NOT RELY ON THE NAM FOR ITS QPF...INSTEAD THIS FORECAST IS
BASED HEAVILY ON NCEP QPF/SNOWFALL AS WELL AS THE 00Z/25 ECMWF
AND GFS BLEND.

MONDAY: SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BUT AN ADVISORY NOT ISSUED
SINCE WE DID NOT WISH TO DRAW ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE POTENTIALLY
VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TOO WARM FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION
FAR SNJ AND MUCH OF THE DELMARVA. THE ARCTIC FRONT AND ITS SLOWLY
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER COLD IS CRUCIAL FOR THE LIFT OF THE SELY
850MB FLOW AND A GENERAL SNOW IN EASTERN PA/MUCH OF NJ. COMMUTES
IMPACTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE.


MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ETC ALL
HINGING ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM. OVERALL, THIS
LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR STORM FOR US AND POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
IN NE NJ. OUR FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLY CONSERVATIVE.

BANDING IN THE COMMA HEAD WITH A BENT BACK FRONT ALOFT LOOKS TO BE
A MAJOR PLAYER...GENERATING SNOWFALL RATES MONDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AN HOUR ACROSS NJ AND PORTIONS OF E PA. IF
THE 00Z/06Z NAM MASS FIELDS ALOFT ARE CORRECT THEN ALL THIS HEAVY SNOW
WOULD MISS TO THE EAST.

THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN E PA AND NJ ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THOSE PLANS MAY NEED MAJOR
ALTERATION/CANCELLATION. BE PREPARED WITH ALTERNATE PLANS. "IF"
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH, WE MAY CONVERT TO WARNINGS LATE TODAY.

WATCHES DO NOT MEAN A DONE DEAL BUT DO PAY ATTENTION. A DRIER
MORE POWDERY SNOW WILL BE EASIER TO ACCUMULATE IN THE COLDER
AIRMASS THAN JUST WHAT OCCURRED EARLY SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME A
FACTOR IN BLOWING/DRIFTING, MAINLY IN NJ/DEL.


TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU INTO FRI...THIS FORECAST WAS NOT UPDATED ON THIS MID SHIFT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE BEGUN
TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME RAIN/SNOW
LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT. STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
MOST OF THE DAY UNDER WESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED TO
NEAR 20 KT WITH THE CFP LATER THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD FROM THE WEST-EAST BY LATE TONIGHT.
MINIMAL RAIN/SNOW MIXING EXPECTED VCNTY KMIV TOWARD 12Z MONDAY.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AROUND
1-2 INCHES PHL/ILG/TTN/PNE, MAYBE 2-3 INCHES RDG/ABE.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR OR INTERMITTENT IFR
NORTH IN SNOW OR PERIODS OF SNOW. N-NE WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT AT
TIMES WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE VCNTY KACY. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PLOWABLE AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FOR AIRPORT CLOSURES AT NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY DEPENDENT ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND RATE OF FALL AS WELL
AS DRIFTING.

TUE...IFR PROBABLE EARLY IN COMMA HEAD BENT BACK BANDING OF THE BIG
NOREASTER THEN PROBABLY BECOMING VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY STRONGER VCNTY KACY.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WED: MOSTLY VFR. N-NW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE:

THURSDAY: CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE IN A PERIOD OF PCPN DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WE REMOVED THE SCA ON THE BAY AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE BELOW
THRESHOLDS. THE OCEAN FRONT CONTINUES TO GO THROUGH 18Z TODAY THOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR SOUTHERN WATERS MAY BE PULLED SOONER AS SEAS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH
LATE AS WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE AS DO THE WINDS. GALE WARNINGS/STORM
WATCHES IN PLACE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS BUT POCKETS
OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. HAVE FORECAST WHERE THE STORM FORCE 50 KT GUSTS
OVER THE NJ WATER WHERE THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR, BUT WITH THE
UNDERSTANDING THAT ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN THE
DELAWARE WATERS AS WELL. THE HEADLINES ARE THE MOST LIKELY WORST
CASE SCENARIO.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE, MAINLY THE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-015>019-027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ021>025.
     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     454-455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...GAINES/HEAVENER/KLINE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 251530
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1030 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION TODAY, REACHING A LATE DAY POSITION FROM THE DELMARVA WEST
INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT LOW WILL REACH
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN TURN NORTH NORTHEAST,
INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY AS IT NEARS CAPE COD TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL
REDEVELOP ON THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE UPDATE, WE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS USING THE
LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO REFLECT LASTEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS, AS
TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED UP A BIT FASTER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND BEGINNING TO CROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT, WE ALSO INCREASED MAX TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS, INCLUDING THE DELMARVA. A
FEW FLURRIES WERE ALSO ADDED FOR A SHORT TIME TO THE POCONOS, AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

OTHERWISE, AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY PULLS FARTHER TO
OUR NORTHEAST AN ARCTIC-TYPE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION
FROM LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING SHOWS ONE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THIS IS DRIVING
THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY. WAY BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS THE
ENERGY THAT WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN THE MUCH LARGER COASTAL NOR`EASTER EXPECTED ON
MONDAY- TUESDAY.

OVERALL A MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BY
THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. THE MORNING STRATOCU
SHOULD LIFT AND MIX OUT A LITTLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DECENT
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 40F THIS
AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY, AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
ADVECT IN BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
BROAD SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, RIDING ALONG THE SAGGING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING, WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND TAKE MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING WAA, IN RESPONSE TO THIS
PROCESS, WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION AS A LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BREAK
OUT FROM WEST-EAST. ONSET TIMING IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE INCREASING CHANCES
DURING THE LATE EVENING. PTYPE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE
TO TRANSITION COLDER (BELOW 0C) JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...WAA SHOULD KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF DOVER WHILE NORTHWARD
IS ALL SNOW.

DECENT CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT, BOTH
THERMALLY AND DYNAMICALLY. GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A NOSE OF A TENTH OF
LIQUID FROM A PHL/ABE LINE WEST SO THIS IS WHERE WE SHOULD SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" IN AND AROUND
PHILLY, 2-3" FARTHER WEST TOWARDS RDG...MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS SATURDAY MORNING.

EVEN THOUGH THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WE DID
NOT WANT TO ADD TO ANY CONFUSION WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES DEALING WITH THE SAME EVENT...JUST TWO DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY. GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL STORM BEGINNING
LATER ON MONDAY...SEE LONG TERM DISCO...WE DECIDED TO FORGO AN
ADVISORY BUT MAKE MENTION OF THE EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL IN THE
HWO/WSW PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**MAJOR DISRUPTIVE SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
 MORNING PHLLY AREA NEWD TO NEW ENGLAND...WINTER STORM WATCH IN
 PLACE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA**

**BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONMOUTH, OCEAN, AND
 MIDDLESEX COUNTIES**

500 MB: A STRONG SHORT WAVE MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INTENSIFIES INTO A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY. RIDGING
IN THE WAKE OF ITS MARITIMES DEPARTURE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE REACHES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH A TEMPORARILY FLATTENED WESTERLY FLOW
NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES (ENERGY USE): BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MON-WED;  NEAR NORMAL FRI,  CHILLING
AGAIN SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 MAV/MET FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THE 00Z/25 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE 05Z/25
WPC D4-8 ELEMENTS OF DEWPOINTS/WIND/SKY/POP/MAX-MIN TEMPS WERE NOT USED
FOR THE LONGER RANGE DUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT
STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

THEREFORE...THERE WAS NO UPDATE OF THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY
IN THE EARLY ISSUANCE TODAY.



THE DAILIES...
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WSA IN DIFFERING SEGMENTS TO BE REFINED WHEN
WATCHES CONVERT TO WARNINGS AND OR ADVISORIES.

MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES OF NE NJ ARE SEPARATED AS WINTER STORM
WATCH, BUT READY TO TO CONVERT TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IF THREE
SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ARE CORRECT.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE 00Z/25 CYCLE WITH THE NAM THE MAIN OUTLIER
RIGHT NOW. THE UKMET IS LARGE BUT A FASTER DEPARTURE THAN THE ECMWF.

THE 00Z/06ZNAM WAS ACCEPTABLE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AND THEREAFTER
DID NOT RELY ON THE NAM FOR ITS QPF...INSTEAD THIS FORECAST IS
BASED HEAVILY ON NCEP QPF/SNOWFALL AS WELL AS THE 00Z/25 ECMWF
AND GFS BLEND.

MONDAY: SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BUT AN ADVISORY NOT ISSUED
SINCE WE DID NOT WISH TO DRAW ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE POTENTIALLY
VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TOO WARM FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION
FAR SNJ AND MUCH OF THE DELMARVA. THE ARCTIC FRONT AND ITS SLOWLY
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER COLD IS CRUCIAL FOR THE LIFT OF THE SELY
850MB FLOW AND A GENERAL SNOW IN EASTERN PA/MUCH OF NJ. COMMUTES
IMPACTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE.


MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ETC ALL
HINGING ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM. OVERALL, THIS
LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR STORM FOR US AND POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
IN NE NJ. OUR FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLY CONSERVATIVE.

BANDING IN THE COMMA HEAD WITH A BENT BACK FRONT ALOFT LOOKS TO BE
A MAJOR PLAYER...GENERATING SNOWFALL RATES MONDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AN HOUR ACROSS NJ AND PORTIONS OF E PA. IF
THE 00Z/06Z NAM MASS FIELDS ALOFT ARE CORRECT THEN ALL THIS HEAVY SNOW
WOULD MISS TO THE EAST.

THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN E PA AND NJ ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THOSE PLANS MAY NEED MAJOR
ALTERATION/CANCELLATION. BE PREPARED WITH ALTERNATE PLANS. "IF"
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH, WE MAY CONVERT TO WARNINGS LATE TODAY.

WATCHES DO NOT MEAN A DONE DEAL BUT DO PAY ATTENTION. A DRIER
MORE POWDERY SNOW WILL BE EASIER TO ACCUMULATE IN THE COLDER
AIRMASS THAN JUST WHAT OCCURRED EARLY SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME A
FACTOR IN BLOWING/DRIFTING, MAINLY IN NJ/DEL.


TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU INTO FRI...THIS FORECAST WAS NOT UPDATED ON THIS MID SHIFT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE BEGUN
TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME RAIN/SNOW
LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT. STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
MOST OF THE DAY UNDER WESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED TO
NEAR 20 KT WITH THE CFP LATER THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD FROM THE WEST-EAST BY LATE TONIGHT.
MINIMAL RAIN/SNOW MIXING EXPECTED VCNTY KMIV TOWARD 12Z MONDAY.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AROUND
1-2 INCHES PHL/ILG/TTN/PNE, MAYBE 2-3 INCHES RDG/ABE.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR OR INTERMITTENT IFR
NORTH IN SNOW OR PERIODS OF SNOW. N-NE WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT AT
TIMES WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE VCNTY KACY. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PLOWABLE AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FOR AIRPORT CLOSURES AT NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY DEPENDENT ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND RATE OF FALL AS WELL
AS DRIFTING.

TUE...IFR PROBABLE EARLY IN COMMA HEAD BENT BACK BANDING OF THE BIG
NOREASTER THEN PROBABLY BECOMING VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY STRONGER VCNTY KACY.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WED: MOSTLY VFR. N-NW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE:

THURSDAY: CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE IN A PERIOD OF PCPN DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WE REMOVED THE SCA ON THE BAY AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE BELOW
THRESHOLDS. THE OCEAN FRONT CONTINUES TO GO THROUGH 18Z TODAY THOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR SOUTHERN WATERS MAY BE PULLED SOONER AS SEAS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH
LATE AS WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE AS DO THE WINDS. GALE WARNINGS/STORM
WATCHES IN PLACE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS BUT POCKETS
OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. HAVE FORECAST WHERE THE STORM FORCE 50 KT GUSTS
OVER THE NJ WATER WHERE THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR, BUT WITH THE
UNDERSTANDING THAT ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN THE
DELAWARE WATERS AS WELL. THE HEADLINES ARE THE MOST LIKELY WORST
CASE SCENARIO.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE, MAINLY THE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-015>019-027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ021>025.
     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     454-455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/KLINE
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLINE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 251530
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1030 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTHEAST THROUGH OUR
REGION TODAY, REACHING A LATE DAY POSITION FROM THE DELMARVA WEST
INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT LOW WILL REACH
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN TURN NORTH NORTHEAST,
INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY AS IT NEARS CAPE COD TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL
REDEVELOP ON THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE UPDATE, WE ADJUSTED HOURLY TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS USING THE
LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO REFLECT LASTEST OBSERVATIONS AND TRENDS, AS
TEMPERATURES HAD WARMED UP A BIT FASTER THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT APPROACHING AND BEGINNING TO CROSS THE REGION. AS A
RESULT, WE ALSO INCREASED MAX TEMPERATURES BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS, INCLUDING THE DELMARVA. A
FEW FLURRIES WERE ALSO ADDED FOR A SHORT TIME TO THE POCONOS, AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.

OTHERWISE, AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY PULLS FARTHER TO
OUR NORTHEAST AN ARCTIC-TYPE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION
FROM LATE MORNING AND THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
THIS MORNING SHOWS ONE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...THIS IS DRIVING
THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY. WAY BACK ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS THE
ENERGY THAT WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE
TONIGHT AND THEN THE MUCH LARGER COASTAL NOR`EASTER EXPECTED ON
MONDAY- TUESDAY.

OVERALL A MAINLY DRY AND TRANQUIL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
REGION. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BY
THIS AFTERNOON USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. THE MORNING STRATOCU
SHOULD LIFT AND MIX OUT A LITTLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DECENT
DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH AROUND 40F THIS
AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY WARMER SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY, AHEAD OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR
ADVECTION OCCURS TO OUR SOUTHWEST AS MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS
ADVECT IN BEGINNING LATER THIS EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
BROAD SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, RIDING ALONG THE SAGGING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING, WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND TAKE MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING WAA, IN RESPONSE TO THIS
PROCESS, WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION AS A LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BREAK
OUT FROM WEST-EAST. ONSET TIMING IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE INCREASING CHANCES
DURING THE LATE EVENING. PTYPE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE
TO TRANSITION COLDER (BELOW 0C) JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...WAA SHOULD KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF DOVER WHILE NORTHWARD
IS ALL SNOW.

DECENT CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT, BOTH
THERMALLY AND DYNAMICALLY. GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A NOSE OF A TENTH OF
LIQUID FROM A PHL/ABE LINE WEST SO THIS IS WHERE WE SHOULD SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" IN AND AROUND
PHILLY, 2-3" FARTHER WEST TOWARDS RDG...MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS SATURDAY MORNING.

EVEN THOUGH THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WE DID
NOT WANT TO ADD TO ANY CONFUSION WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES DEALING WITH THE SAME EVENT...JUST TWO DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY. GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL STORM BEGINNING
LATER ON MONDAY...SEE LONG TERM DISCO...WE DECIDED TO FORGO AN
ADVISORY BUT MAKE MENTION OF THE EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL IN THE
HWO/WSW PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**MAJOR DISRUPTIVE SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
 MORNING PHLLY AREA NEWD TO NEW ENGLAND...WINTER STORM WATCH IN
 PLACE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA**

**BLIZZARD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MONMOUTH, OCEAN, AND
 MIDDLESEX COUNTIES**

500 MB: A STRONG SHORT WAVE MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INTENSIFIES INTO A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY. RIDGING
IN THE WAKE OF ITS MARITIMES DEPARTURE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE REACHES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH A TEMPORARILY FLATTENED WESTERLY FLOW
NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES (ENERGY USE): BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MON-WED;  NEAR NORMAL FRI,  CHILLING
AGAIN SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 MAV/MET FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THE 00Z/25 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE 05Z/25
WPC D4-8 ELEMENTS OF DEWPOINTS/WIND/SKY/POP/MAX-MIN TEMPS WERE NOT USED
FOR THE LONGER RANGE DUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT
STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

THEREFORE...THERE WAS NO UPDATE OF THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY
IN THE EARLY ISSUANCE TODAY.



THE DAILIES...
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WSA IN DIFFERING SEGMENTS TO BE REFINED WHEN
WATCHES CONVERT TO WARNINGS AND OR ADVISORIES.

MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES OF NE NJ ARE SEPARATED AS WINTER STORM
WATCH, BUT READY TO TO CONVERT TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IF THREE
SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ARE CORRECT.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE 00Z/25 CYCLE WITH THE NAM THE MAIN OUTLIER
RIGHT NOW. THE UKMET IS LARGE BUT A FASTER DEPARTURE THAN THE ECMWF.

THE 00Z/06ZNAM WAS ACCEPTABLE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AND THEREAFTER
DID NOT RELY ON THE NAM FOR ITS QPF...INSTEAD THIS FORECAST IS
BASED HEAVILY ON NCEP QPF/SNOWFALL AS WELL AS THE 00Z/25 ECMWF
AND GFS BLEND.

MONDAY: SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BUT AN ADVISORY NOT ISSUED
SINCE WE DID NOT WISH TO DRAW ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE POTENTIALLY
VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TOO WARM FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION
FAR SNJ AND MUCH OF THE DELMARVA. THE ARCTIC FRONT AND ITS SLOWLY
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER COLD IS CRUCIAL FOR THE LIFT OF THE SELY
850MB FLOW AND A GENERAL SNOW IN EASTERN PA/MUCH OF NJ. COMMUTES
IMPACTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE.


MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ETC ALL
HINGING ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM. OVERALL, THIS
LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR STORM FOR US AND POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
IN NE NJ. OUR FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLY CONSERVATIVE.

BANDING IN THE COMMA HEAD WITH A BENT BACK FRONT ALOFT LOOKS TO BE
A MAJOR PLAYER...GENERATING SNOWFALL RATES MONDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AN HOUR ACROSS NJ AND PORTIONS OF E PA. IF
THE 00Z/06Z NAM MASS FIELDS ALOFT ARE CORRECT THEN ALL THIS HEAVY SNOW
WOULD MISS TO THE EAST.

THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN E PA AND NJ ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THOSE PLANS MAY NEED MAJOR
ALTERATION/CANCELLATION. BE PREPARED WITH ALTERNATE PLANS. "IF"
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH, WE MAY CONVERT TO WARNINGS LATE TODAY.

WATCHES DO NOT MEAN A DONE DEAL BUT DO PAY ATTENTION. A DRIER
MORE POWDERY SNOW WILL BE EASIER TO ACCUMULATE IN THE COLDER
AIRMASS THAN JUST WHAT OCCURRED EARLY SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME A
FACTOR IN BLOWING/DRIFTING, MAINLY IN NJ/DEL.


TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU INTO FRI...THIS FORECAST WAS NOT UPDATED ON THIS MID SHIFT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE BEGUN
TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME RAIN/SNOW
LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT. STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
MOST OF THE DAY UNDER WESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED TO
NEAR 20 KT WITH THE CFP LATER THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD FROM THE WEST-EAST BY LATE TONIGHT.
MINIMAL RAIN/SNOW MIXING EXPECTED VCNTY KMIV TOWARD 12Z MONDAY.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AROUND
1-2 INCHES PHL/ILG/TTN/PNE, MAYBE 2-3 INCHES RDG/ABE.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR OR INTERMITTENT IFR
NORTH IN SNOW OR PERIODS OF SNOW. N-NE WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT AT
TIMES WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE VCNTY KACY. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PLOWABLE AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FOR AIRPORT CLOSURES AT NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY DEPENDENT ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND RATE OF FALL AS WELL
AS DRIFTING.

TUE...IFR PROBABLE EARLY IN COMMA HEAD BENT BACK BANDING OF THE BIG
NOREASTER THEN PROBABLY BECOMING VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY STRONGER VCNTY KACY.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WED: MOSTLY VFR. N-NW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE:

THURSDAY: CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE IN A PERIOD OF PCPN DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WE REMOVED THE SCA ON THE BAY AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE BELOW
THRESHOLDS. THE OCEAN FRONT CONTINUES TO GO THROUGH 18Z TODAY THOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR SOUTHERN WATERS MAY BE PULLED SOONER AS SEAS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH
LATE AS WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE AS DO THE WINDS. GALE WARNINGS/STORM
WATCHES IN PLACE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS BUT POCKETS
OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. HAVE FORECAST WHERE THE STORM FORCE 50 KT GUSTS
OVER THE NJ WATER WHERE THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR, BUT WITH THE
UNDERSTANDING THAT ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN THE
DELAWARE WATERS AS WELL. THE HEADLINES ARE THE MOST LIKELY WORST
CASE SCENARIO.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE, MAINLY THE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-015>019-027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ021>025.
     BLIZZARD WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ012>014-020-026.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     454-455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/KLINE
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLINE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 251154
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
654 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS RUSHING SOUTHEAST DOWN TO NEAR ROUTE 80 AT
DAYBREAK AND WILL SLIDE DOWN INTO A LATE DAY POSITION FROM THE
DELMARVA WEST INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT
LOW WILL REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN TURN
NORTH NORTHEAST INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY AS IT NEARS CAPE COD
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER LOW
WILL REDEVELOP ON THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY PULLS FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST AN
ARCTIC-TYPE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS ONE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...THIS IS DRIVING THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY. WAY BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS THE ENERGY THAT WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THE MUCH LARGER COASTAL
NOR`EASTER EXPECTED ON MONDAY-TUESDAY.

OVERALL A DRY AND TRANQUIL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON
USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. THE MORNING STRATOCU SHOULD LIFT AND
MIX OUT A LITTLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DECENT DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH CLOSE TO 40F THIS AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY
WARMER SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY, AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AS MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ADVECT IN BEGINNING LATER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
BROAD SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, RIDING ALONG THE SAGGING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING, WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND TAKE MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING WAA, IN RESPONSE TO THIS
PROCESS, WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION AS A LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BREAK
OUT FROM WEST-EAST. ONSET TIMING IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE INCREASING CHANCES
DURING THE LATE EVENING. PTYPE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE
TO TRANSITION COLDER (BELOW 0C) JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...WAA SHOULD KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF DOVER WHILE NORTHWARD
IS ALL SNOW.

DECENT CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT, BOTH
THERMALLY AND DYNAMICALLY. GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A NOSE OF A TENTH OF
LIQUID FROM A PHL/ABE LINE WEST SO THIS IS WHERE WE SHOULD SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" IN AND AROUND
PHILLY, 2-3" FARTHER WEST TOWARDS RDG...MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS SATURDAY MORNING.

EVEN THOUGH THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WE DID
NOT WANT TO ADD TO ANY CONFUSION WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES DEALING WITH THE SAME EVENT...JUST TWO DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY. GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL STORM BEGINNING
LATER ON MONDAY...SEE LONG TERM DISCO...WE DECIDED TO FORGO AN
ADVISORY BUT MAKE MENTION OF THE EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL IN THE
HWO/WSW PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**MAJOR DISRUPTIVE SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
 MORNING PHLLY AREA NEWD TO NEW ENGLAND**

500 MB: A STRONG SHORT WAVE MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INTENSIFIES INTO A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY. RIDGING
IN THE WAKE OF ITS MARITIMES DEPARTURE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE REACHES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH A TEMPORARILY FLATTENED WESTERLY FLOW
NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES (ENERGY USE): BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MON-WED;  NEAR NORMAL FRI,  CHILLING
AGAIN SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 MAV/MET FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THE 00Z/25 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE 05Z/25
WPC D4-8 ELEMENTS OF DEWPOINTS/WIND/SKY/POP/MAX-MIN TEMPS WERE NOT USED
FOR THE LONGER RANGE DUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT
STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

THEREFORE...THERE WAS NO UPDATE OF THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY
IN THE EARLY ISSUANCE TODAY.



THE DAILIES...
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WSA IN DIFFERING SEGMENTS TO BE REFINED WHEN
WATCHES CONVERT TO WARNINGS AND OR ADVISORIES.

MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES OF NE NJ ARE SEPARATED AS WINTER STORM
WATCH, BUT READY TO TO CONVERT TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IF THREE
SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ARE CORRECT.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE 00Z/25 CYCLE WITH THE NAM THE MAIN OUTLIER
RIGHT NOW. THE UKMET IS LARGE BUT A FASTER DEPARTURE THAN THE ECMWF.

THE 00Z/06ZNAM WAS ACCEPTABLE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AND THEREAFTER
DID NOT RELY ON THE NAM FOR ITS QPF...INSTEAD THIS FORECAST IS
BASED HEAVILY ON NCEP QPF/SNOWFALL AS WELL AS THE 00Z/25 ECMWF
AND GFS BLEND.

MONDAY: SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BUT AN ADVISORY NOT ISSUED
SINCE WE DID NOT WISH TO DRAW ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE POTENTIALLY
VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TOO WARM FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION
FAR SNJ AND MUCH OF THE DELMARVA. THE ARCTIC FRONT AND ITS SLOWLY
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER COLD IS CRUCIAL FOR THE LIFT OF THE SELY
850MB FLOW AND A GENERAL SNOW IN EASTERN PA/MUCH OF NJ. COMMUTES
IMPACTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE.


MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ETC ALL
HINGING ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM. OVERALL, THIS
LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR STORM FOR US AND POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
IN NE NJ. OUR FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLY CONSERVATIVE.

BANDING IN THE COMMA HEAD WITH A BENT BACK FRONT ALOFT LOOKS TO BE
A MAJOR PLAYER...GENERATING SNOWFALL RATES MONDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AN HOUR ACROSS NJ AND PORTIONS OF E PA. IF
THE 00Z/06Z NAM MASS FIELDS ALOFT ARE CORRECT THEN ALL THIS HEAVY SNOW
WOULD MISS TO THE EAST.

THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN E PA AND NJ ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THOSE PLANS MAY NEED MAJOR
ALTERATION/CANCELLATION. BE PREPARED WITH ALTERNATE PLANS. "IF"
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH, WE MAY CONVERT TO WARNINGS LATE TODAY.

WATCHES DO NOT MEAN A DONE DEAL BUT DO PAY ATTENTION. A DRIER
MORE POWDERY SNOW WILL BE EASIER TO ACCUMULATE IN THE COLDER
AIRMASS THAN JUST WHAT OCCURRED EARLY SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME A
FACTOR IN BLOWING/DRIFTING, MAINLY IN NJ/DEL.


TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU INTO FRI...THIS FORECAST WAS NOT UPDATED ON THIS MID SHIFT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE BEGUN
TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME RAIN/SNOW
LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT. STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
MOST OF THE DAY UNDER WESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED TO
NEAR 20 KT WITH THE CFP LATER THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD FROM THE WEST-EAST BY LATE TONIGHT.
MINIMAL RAIN/SNOW MIXING EXPECTED VCNTY KMIV TOWARD 12Z MONDAY.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AROUND
1-2 INCHES PHL/ILG/TTN/PNE, MAYBE 2-3 INCHES RDG/ABE.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR OR INTERMITTENT IFR
NORTH IN SNOW OR PERIODS OF SNOW. N-NE WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT AT
TIMES WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE VCNTY KACY. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PLOWABLE AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FOR AIRPORT CLOSURES AT NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY DEPENDENT ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND RATE OF FALL AS WELL
AS DRIFTING.

TUE...IFR PROBABLE EARLY IN COMMA HEAD BENT BACK BANDING OF THE BIG
NOREASTER THEN PROBABLY BECOMING VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY STRONGER VCNTY KACY.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WED: MOSTLY VFR. N-NW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE:

THURSDAY: CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE IN A PERIOD OF PCPN DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WE REMOVED THE SCA ON THE BAY AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE BELOW
THRESHOLDS. THE OCEAN FRONT CONTINUES TO GO THROUGH 18Z TODAY THOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR SOUTHERN WATERS MAY BE PULLED SOONER AS SEAS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH
LATE AS WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE AS DO THE WINDS. GALE WARNINGS/STORM
WATCHES IN PLACE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS BUT POCKETS
OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. HAVE FORECAST WHERE THE STORM FORCE 50 KT GUSTS
OVER THE NJ WATER WHERE THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR, BUT WITH THE
UNDERSTANDING THAT ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN THE
DELAWARE WATERS AS WELL. THE HEADLINES ARE THE MOST LIKELY WORST
CASE SCENARIO.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE, MAINLY THE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     454-455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG 654
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 654
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER 654
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 251154
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
654 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT WAS RUSHING SOUTHEAST DOWN TO NEAR ROUTE 80 AT
DAYBREAK AND WILL SLIDE DOWN INTO A LATE DAY POSITION FROM THE
DELMARVA WEST INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT
LOW WILL REACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN TURN
NORTH NORTHEAST INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY AS IT NEARS CAPE COD
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER LOW
WILL REDEVELOP ON THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC
COAST LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY PULLS FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST AN
ARCTIC-TYPE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS ONE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...THIS IS DRIVING THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY. WAY BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS THE ENERGY THAT WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THE MUCH LARGER COASTAL
NOR`EASTER EXPECTED ON MONDAY-TUESDAY.

OVERALL A DRY AND TRANQUIL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON
USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. THE MORNING STRATOCU SHOULD LIFT AND
MIX OUT A LITTLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DECENT DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH CLOSE TO 40F THIS AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY
WARMER SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY, AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AS MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ADVECT IN BEGINNING LATER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
BROAD SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, RIDING ALONG THE SAGGING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING, WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND TAKE MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING WAA, IN RESPONSE TO THIS
PROCESS, WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION AS A LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BREAK
OUT FROM WEST-EAST. ONSET TIMING IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE INCREASING CHANCES
DURING THE LATE EVENING. PTYPE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE
TO TRANSITION COLDER (BELOW 0C) JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...WAA SHOULD KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF DOVER WHILE NORTHWARD
IS ALL SNOW.

DECENT CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT, BOTH
THERMALLY AND DYNAMICALLY. GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A NOSE OF A TENTH OF
LIQUID FROM A PHL/ABE LINE WEST SO THIS IS WHERE WE SHOULD SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" IN AND AROUND
PHILLY, 2-3" FARTHER WEST TOWARDS RDG...MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS SATURDAY MORNING.

EVEN THOUGH THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WE DID
NOT WANT TO ADD TO ANY CONFUSION WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES DEALING WITH THE SAME EVENT...JUST TWO DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY. GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL STORM BEGINNING
LATER ON MONDAY...SEE LONG TERM DISCO...WE DECIDED TO FORGO AN
ADVISORY BUT MAKE MENTION OF THE EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL IN THE
HWO/WSW PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
**MAJOR DISRUPTIVE SNOWSTORM POTENTIAL LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY
 MORNING PHLLY AREA NEWD TO NEW ENGLAND**

500 MB: A STRONG SHORT WAVE MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
INTENSIFIES INTO A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND TUESDAY. RIDGING
IN THE WAKE OF ITS MARITIMES DEPARTURE FOLLOWS TO THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE REACHES THE MID
ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH A TEMPORARILY FLATTENED WESTERLY FLOW
NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES (ENERGY USE): BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MON-WED;  NEAR NORMAL FRI,  CHILLING
AGAIN SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 MAV/MET FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THE 00Z/25 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE 05Z/25
WPC D4-8 ELEMENTS OF DEWPOINTS/WIND/SKY/POP/MAX-MIN TEMPS WERE NOT USED
FOR THE LONGER RANGE DUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT
STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

THEREFORE...THERE WAS NO UPDATE OF THE FORECAST BEYOND WEDNESDAY
IN THE EARLY ISSUANCE TODAY.



THE DAILIES...
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WSA IN DIFFERING SEGMENTS TO BE REFINED WHEN
WATCHES CONVERT TO WARNINGS AND OR ADVISORIES.

MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES OF NE NJ ARE SEPARATED AS WINTER STORM
WATCH, BUT READY TO TO CONVERT TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IF THREE
SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ARE CORRECT.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE 00Z/25 CYCLE WITH THE NAM THE MAIN OUTLIER
RIGHT NOW. THE UKMET IS LARGE BUT A FASTER DEPARTURE THAN THE ECMWF.

THE 00Z/06ZNAM WAS ACCEPTABLE THROUGH MIDDAY MONDAY AND THEREAFTER
DID NOT RELY ON THE NAM FOR ITS QPF...INSTEAD THIS FORECAST IS
BASED HEAVILY ON NCEP QPF/SNOWFALL AS WELL AS THE 00Z/25 ECMWF
AND GFS BLEND.

MONDAY: SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BUT AN ADVISORY NOT ISSUED
SINCE WE DID NOT WISH TO DRAW ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE POTENTIALLY
VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TOO WARM FOR MUCH ACCUMULATION
FAR SNJ AND MUCH OF THE DELMARVA. THE ARCTIC FRONT AND ITS SLOWLY
DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER COLD IS CRUCIAL FOR THE LIFT OF THE SELY
850MB FLOW AND A GENERAL SNOW IN EASTERN PA/MUCH OF NJ. COMMUTES
IMPACTED. HIGH CONFIDENCE.


MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ETC ALL
HINGING ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM. OVERALL, THIS
LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR STORM FOR US AND POTENTIAL FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS
IN NE NJ. OUR FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLY CONSERVATIVE.

BANDING IN THE COMMA HEAD WITH A BENT BACK FRONT ALOFT LOOKS TO BE
A MAJOR PLAYER...GENERATING SNOWFALL RATES MONDAY NIGHT POSSIBLY
IN EXCESS OF AN INCH AN HOUR ACROSS NJ AND PORTIONS OF E PA. IF
THE 00Z/06Z NAM MASS FIELDS ALOFT ARE CORRECT THEN ALL THIS HEAVY SNOW
WOULD MISS TO THE EAST.

THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN E PA AND NJ ESPECIALLY FOR MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THOSE PLANS MAY NEED MAJOR
ALTERATION/CANCELLATION. BE PREPARED WITH ALTERNATE PLANS. "IF"
CONFIDENCE IS VERY HIGH, WE MAY CONVERT TO WARNINGS LATE TODAY.

WATCHES DO NOT MEAN A DONE DEAL BUT DO PAY ATTENTION. A DRIER
MORE POWDERY SNOW WILL BE EASIER TO ACCUMULATE IN THE COLDER
AIRMASS THAN JUST WHAT OCCURRED EARLY SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME A
FACTOR IN BLOWING/DRIFTING, MAINLY IN NJ/DEL.


TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU INTO FRI...THIS FORECAST WAS NOT UPDATED ON THIS MID SHIFT.
MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL HAVE BEGUN
TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME RAIN/SNOW
LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW. TEMPS WILL
STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CIGS AOA 4000 FT. STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE
MOST OF THE DAY UNDER WESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED TO
NEAR 20 KT WITH THE CFP LATER THIS MORNING.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD FROM THE WEST-EAST BY LATE TONIGHT.
MINIMAL RAIN/SNOW MIXING EXPECTED VCNTY KMIV TOWARD 12Z MONDAY.
EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AROUND
1-2 INCHES PHL/ILG/TTN/PNE, MAYBE 2-3 INCHES RDG/ABE.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR OR INTERMITTENT IFR
NORTH IN SNOW OR PERIODS OF SNOW. N-NE WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT AT
TIMES WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE VCNTY KACY. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.
PLOWABLE AMOUNTS AND POTENTIAL FOR AIRPORT CLOSURES AT NIGHT INTO
EARLY TUESDAY DEPENDENT ON SNOW AMOUNTS AND RATE OF FALL AS WELL
AS DRIFTING.

TUE...IFR PROBABLE EARLY IN COMMA HEAD BENT BACK BANDING OF THE BIG
NOREASTER THEN PROBABLY BECOMING VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY. NORTHWEST
WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY STRONGER VCNTY KACY.
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WED: MOSTLY VFR. N-NW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE:

THURSDAY: CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE IN A PERIOD OF PCPN DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WE REMOVED THE SCA ON THE BAY AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE BELOW
THRESHOLDS. THE OCEAN FRONT CONTINUES TO GO THROUGH 18Z TODAY THOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR SOUTHERN WATERS MAY BE PULLED SOONER AS SEAS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH
LATE AS WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE AS DO THE WINDS. GALE WARNINGS/STORM
WATCHES IN PLACE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS BUT POCKETS
OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. HAVE FORECAST WHERE THE STORM FORCE 50 KT GUSTS
OVER THE NJ WATER WHERE THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR, BUT WITH THE
UNDERSTANDING THAT ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS MAY OCCUR IN THE
DELAWARE WATERS AS WELL. THE HEADLINES ARE THE MOST LIKELY WORST
CASE SCENARIO.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE, MAINLY THE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     454-455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG 654
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 654
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER 654
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 251007
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
507 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AT DAWN WILL
SLIDE DOWN INTO A LATE DAY POSITION FROM SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY WEST
INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT LOW WILL REACH
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN TURN NORTH NORTHEAST
INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY AS IT NEARS CAPE COD TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL REDEVELOP
ON THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY PULLS FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST AN
ARCTIC-TYPE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS ONE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...THIS IS DRIVING THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY. WAY BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS THE ENERGY THAT WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THE MUCH LARGER COASTAL
NOR`EASTER EXPECTED ON MONDAY-TUESDAY.

OVERALL A DRY AND TRANQUIL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON
USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. THE MORNING STRATOCU SHOULD LIFT AND
MIX OUT A LITTLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DECENT DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH CLOSE TO 40F THIS AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY
WARMER SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY, AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AS MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ADVECT IN BEGINNING LATER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
BROAD SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, RIDING ALONG THE SAGGING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING, WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND TAKE MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING WAA, IN RESPONSE TO THIS
PROCESS, WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION AS A LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BREAK
OUT FROM WEST-EAST. ONSET TIMING IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE INCREASING CHANCES
DURING THE LATE EVENING. PTYPE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE
TO TRANSITION COLDER (BELOW 0C) JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...WAA SHOULD KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF DOVER WHILE NORTHWARD
IS ALL SNOW.

DECENT CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT, BOTH
THERMALLY AND DYNAMICALLY. GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A NOSE OF A TENTH OF
LIQUID FROM A PHL/ABE LINE WEST SO THIS IS WHERE WE SHOULD SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" IN AND AROUND
PHILLY, 2-3" FARTHER WEST TOWARDS RDG...MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS SATURDAY MORNING.

EVEN THOUGH THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WE DID
NOT WANT TO ADD TO ANY CONFUSION WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES DEALING WITH THE SAME EVENT...JUST TWO DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY. GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL STORM BEGINNING
LATER ON MONDAY...SEE LONG TERM DISCO...WE DECIDED TO FORGO AN
ADVISORY BUT MAKE MENTION OF THE EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL IN THE
HWO/WSW PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS 507 AM AFD UPDATE ADDED THE WATCH TO THE SLIVER OF COASTAL
ATLANTIC COUNTY OVERLOOKED IN THE 330 AM PACKAGE. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

500 MB: A STRONG SHORT WAVE MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTENSIFIES INTO A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY. RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF ITS MARITIMES DEPARTURE FOLLOWS TO
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE REACHES
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH A TEMPORARILY FLATTENED
WESTERLY FLOW NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES (ENERGY USE): BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MON-WED;  NEAR NORMAL FRI,  CHILLING
AGAIN SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 MAV/MET FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THE 00Z/25 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE 05Z/25
WPC D4-8 ELEMENTS OF DEWPOINTS/WIND/SKY/POP/MAX-MIN TEMPS WERE NOT USED
FOR THE LONGER RANGE DUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT
STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

THE DAILIES...
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WSA IN DIFFERING SEGMENTS TO BE REFINED WHEN
WATCHES CONVERT TO WARNINGS AND OR ADVISORIES.

MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES OF NE NJ ARE SEPARATED AS WINTER STORM
WATCH, BUT READY TO TO CONVERT TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IF THREE
SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ARE CORRECT.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE 00Z/25 CYCLE WITH THE NAM THE MAIN OUTLIER
RIGHT NOW. THE UKMET IS LARGE BUT A FASTER DEPARTURE THAN THE ECMWF.

MONDAY: SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BUT AN ADVISORY NOT
ISSUED SINCE WE DID NOT WISH TO DRAW ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE
POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TOO WARM FOR
MUCH ACCUMULATION FAR SNJ AND MUCH OF THE DELMARVA. THE ARCTIC
FRONT AND ITS SLOWLY DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER COLD IS CRUCIAL FOR
THE LIFT OF THE SELY 850MB FLOW AND A GENERAL SNOW IN EASTERN
PA/MUCH OF NJ.  COMMUTES IMPACTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.


MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ETC ALL
HINGING ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM. OVERALL, THIS
LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR STORM FOR US AND POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN NE NJ. OUR FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLY SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE BUT AMOUNTS ARE NOT SET YET. JUST GIVES AN IDEA.
ITS A WATCH. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN E PA AND NJ ESPECIALLY FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THOSE PLANS MAY NEED
MAJOR ALTERATION.

THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MID ATLC COASTAL UPPER LOW/EXPLOSIVE SFC
INTENSIFICATION SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL PROBABLY HAVE DEFORMATION
BANDING POSSIBLY REACHING BACK TO NJ.

WATCHES DO NOT MEAN A DONE DEAL BUT DO PAY ATTENTION. A DRIER
MORE POWDERY SNOW WILL BE EASIER TO ACCUMULATE IN THE COLDER
AIRMASS THAN JUST WHAT OCCURRED EARLY SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME A
FACTOR IN BLOWING/DRIFTING, MAINLY IN NJ/DEL.

THE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PORTION HAS UNCERTAINTY AND SOMEWHAT LESS
CONFIDENCE THAN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

OUR POSTED STORM TOTALS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN
FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO
SOME RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR
NOW. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY AT RDG/ABE BEFORE
LIFTING. STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY UNDER
WESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED. SOME BACKING IN THE WINDS
IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM RIDING TOWARDS THE EAST, WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. MINIMAL RAIN/SNOW MIXING EXPECTED...MOSTLY WELL SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN DELAWARE. EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AROUND 1-2 INCHES PHL/ILG/TTN/PNE, MAYBE 2-3
INCHES RDG/ABE.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR OR INTERMITTENT IFR
NORTH IN SNOW OR PERIODS OF SNOW. N-NE WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT AT
TIMES WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE VCNTY KACY. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...IFR POSSIBLE EARLY IN COMMA HEAD BENT BACK BANDING OF THE
BIG NOREASTER THEN PROBABLY BECOMING VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY STRONGER VCNTY
KACY.  AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WED: MOSTLY VFR. N-NW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE:

THURSDAY: CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE IN A PERIOD OF PCPN DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WE REMOVED THE SCA ON THE BAY AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE BELOW
THRESHOLDS. THE OCEAN FRONT CONTINUES TO GO THROUGH 18Z TODAY THOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR SOUTHERN WATERS MAY BE PULLED SOONER AS SEAS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH
LATE AS WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE AS DO THE WINDS. GALE WARNINGS/STORM
WATCHES IN PLACE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS BUT
POCKETS OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. HAVE FORECAST WHERE THE STORM FORCE
50 KT GUSTS OVER THE NJ WATER WHERE THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR,
BUT WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS MAY
OCCUR IN THE DELAWARE WATERS AS WELL. THE HEADLINES ARE THE MOST
LIKELY WORST CASE SCENARIO.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE, MAINLY THE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     454-455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG 507A
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 251007
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
507 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AT DAWN WILL
SLIDE DOWN INTO A LATE DAY POSITION FROM SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY WEST
INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT LOW WILL REACH
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN TURN NORTH NORTHEAST
INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY AS IT NEARS CAPE COD TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL REDEVELOP
ON THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY PULLS FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST AN
ARCTIC-TYPE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS ONE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...THIS IS DRIVING THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY. WAY BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS THE ENERGY THAT WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THE MUCH LARGER COASTAL
NOR`EASTER EXPECTED ON MONDAY-TUESDAY.

OVERALL A DRY AND TRANQUIL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON
USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. THE MORNING STRATOCU SHOULD LIFT AND
MIX OUT A LITTLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DECENT DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH CLOSE TO 40F THIS AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY
WARMER SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY, AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AS MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ADVECT IN BEGINNING LATER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
BROAD SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, RIDING ALONG THE SAGGING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING, WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND TAKE MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING WAA, IN RESPONSE TO THIS
PROCESS, WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION AS A LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BREAK
OUT FROM WEST-EAST. ONSET TIMING IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE INCREASING CHANCES
DURING THE LATE EVENING. PTYPE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE
TO TRANSITION COLDER (BELOW 0C) JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...WAA SHOULD KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF DOVER WHILE NORTHWARD
IS ALL SNOW.

DECENT CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT, BOTH
THERMALLY AND DYNAMICALLY. GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A NOSE OF A TENTH OF
LIQUID FROM A PHL/ABE LINE WEST SO THIS IS WHERE WE SHOULD SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" IN AND AROUND
PHILLY, 2-3" FARTHER WEST TOWARDS RDG...MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS SATURDAY MORNING.

EVEN THOUGH THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WE DID
NOT WANT TO ADD TO ANY CONFUSION WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES DEALING WITH THE SAME EVENT...JUST TWO DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY. GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL STORM BEGINNING
LATER ON MONDAY...SEE LONG TERM DISCO...WE DECIDED TO FORGO AN
ADVISORY BUT MAKE MENTION OF THE EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL IN THE
HWO/WSW PRODUCTS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THIS 507 AM AFD UPDATE ADDED THE WATCH TO THE SLIVER OF COASTAL
ATLANTIC COUNTY OVERLOOKED IN THE 330 AM PACKAGE. NO OTHER
CHANGES.

500 MB: A STRONG SHORT WAVE MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTENSIFIES INTO A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY. RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF ITS MARITIMES DEPARTURE FOLLOWS TO
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE REACHES
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH A TEMPORARILY FLATTENED
WESTERLY FLOW NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES (ENERGY USE): BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MON-WED;  NEAR NORMAL FRI,  CHILLING
AGAIN SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 MAV/MET FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THE 00Z/25 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE 05Z/25
WPC D4-8 ELEMENTS OF DEWPOINTS/WIND/SKY/POP/MAX-MIN TEMPS WERE NOT USED
FOR THE LONGER RANGE DUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT
STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

THE DAILIES...
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WSA IN DIFFERING SEGMENTS TO BE REFINED WHEN
WATCHES CONVERT TO WARNINGS AND OR ADVISORIES.

MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES OF NE NJ ARE SEPARATED AS WINTER STORM
WATCH, BUT READY TO TO CONVERT TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IF THREE
SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ARE CORRECT.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE 00Z/25 CYCLE WITH THE NAM THE MAIN OUTLIER
RIGHT NOW. THE UKMET IS LARGE BUT A FASTER DEPARTURE THAN THE ECMWF.

MONDAY: SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BUT AN ADVISORY NOT
ISSUED SINCE WE DID NOT WISH TO DRAW ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE
POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TOO WARM FOR
MUCH ACCUMULATION FAR SNJ AND MUCH OF THE DELMARVA. THE ARCTIC
FRONT AND ITS SLOWLY DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER COLD IS CRUCIAL FOR
THE LIFT OF THE SELY 850MB FLOW AND A GENERAL SNOW IN EASTERN
PA/MUCH OF NJ.  COMMUTES IMPACTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.


MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ETC ALL
HINGING ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM. OVERALL, THIS
LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR STORM FOR US AND POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN NE NJ. OUR FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLY SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE BUT AMOUNTS ARE NOT SET YET. JUST GIVES AN IDEA.
ITS A WATCH. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN E PA AND NJ ESPECIALLY FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THOSE PLANS MAY NEED
MAJOR ALTERATION.

THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MID ATLC COASTAL UPPER LOW/EXPLOSIVE SFC
INTENSIFICATION SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL PROBABLY HAVE DEFORMATION
BANDING POSSIBLY REACHING BACK TO NJ.

WATCHES DO NOT MEAN A DONE DEAL BUT DO PAY ATTENTION. A DRIER
MORE POWDERY SNOW WILL BE EASIER TO ACCUMULATE IN THE COLDER
AIRMASS THAN JUST WHAT OCCURRED EARLY SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME A
FACTOR IN BLOWING/DRIFTING, MAINLY IN NJ/DEL.

THE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PORTION HAS UNCERTAINTY AND SOMEWHAT LESS
CONFIDENCE THAN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

OUR POSTED STORM TOTALS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN
FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO
SOME RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR
NOW. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY AT RDG/ABE BEFORE
LIFTING. STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY UNDER
WESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED. SOME BACKING IN THE WINDS
IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM RIDING TOWARDS THE EAST, WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. MINIMAL RAIN/SNOW MIXING EXPECTED...MOSTLY WELL SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN DELAWARE. EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AROUND 1-2 INCHES PHL/ILG/TTN/PNE, MAYBE 2-3
INCHES RDG/ABE.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR OR INTERMITTENT IFR
NORTH IN SNOW OR PERIODS OF SNOW. N-NE WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT AT
TIMES WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE VCNTY KACY. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...IFR POSSIBLE EARLY IN COMMA HEAD BENT BACK BANDING OF THE
BIG NOREASTER THEN PROBABLY BECOMING VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY STRONGER VCNTY
KACY.  AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WED: MOSTLY VFR. N-NW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE:

THURSDAY: CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE IN A PERIOD OF PCPN DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WE REMOVED THE SCA ON THE BAY AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE BELOW
THRESHOLDS. THE OCEAN FRONT CONTINUES TO GO THROUGH 18Z TODAY THOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR SOUTHERN WATERS MAY BE PULLED SOONER AS SEAS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH
LATE AS WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE AS DO THE WINDS. GALE WARNINGS/STORM
WATCHES IN PLACE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS BUT
POCKETS OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. HAVE FORECAST WHERE THE STORM FORCE
50 KT GUSTS OVER THE NJ WATER WHERE THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR,
BUT WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS MAY
OCCUR IN THE DELAWARE WATERS AS WELL. THE HEADLINES ARE THE MOST
LIKELY WORST CASE SCENARIO.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE, MAINLY THE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ021>025.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     454-455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG 507A
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 250930
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
430 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AT DAWN WILL
SLIDE DOWN INTO A LATE DAY POSITION FROM SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY WEST
INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT LOW WILL REACH
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN TURN NORTH NORTHEAST
INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY AS IT NEARS CAPE COD TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL REDEVELOP
ON THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY PULLS FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST AN
ARCTIC-TYPE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS ONE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...THIS IS DRIVING THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY. WAY BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS THE ENERGY THAT WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THE MUCH LARGER COASTAL
NOR`EASTER EXPECTED ON MONDAY-TUESDAY.

OVERALL A DRY AND TRANQUIL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON
USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. THE MORNING STRATOCU SHOULD LIFT AND
MIX OUT A LITTLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DECENT DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH CLOSE TO 40F THIS AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY
WARMER SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY, AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AS MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ADVECT IN BEGINNING LATER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
BROAD SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, RIDING ALONG THE SAGGING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING, WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND TAKE MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING WAA, IN RESPONSE TO THIS
PROCESS, WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION AS A LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BREAK
OUT FROM WEST-EAST. ONSET TIMING IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE INCREASING CHANCES
DURING THE LATE EVENING. PTYPE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE
TO TRANSITION COLDER (BELOW 0C) JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...WAA SHOULD KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF DOVER WHILE NORTHWARD
IS ALL SNOW.

DECENT CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT, BOTH
THERMALLY AND DYNAMICALLY. GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A NOSE OF A TENTH OF
LIQUID FROM A PHL/ABE LINE WEST SO THIS IS WHERE WE SHOULD SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" IN AND AROUND
PHILLY, 2-3" FARTHER WEST TOWARDS RDG...MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS SATURDAY MORNING.

EVEN THOUGH THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WE DID
NOT WANT TO ADD TO ANY CONFUSION WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES DEALING WITH THE SAME EVENT...JUST TWO DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY. GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL STORM BEGINNING
LATER ON MONDAY...SEE LONG TERM DISCO...WE DECIDED TO FORGO AN
ADVISORY BUT MAKE MENTION OF THE EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL IN THE
HWO/WSW PRODUCTS.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: A STRONG SHORT WAVE MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTENSIFIES INTO A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY. RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF ITS MARITIMES DEPARTURE FOLLOWS TO
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE REACHES
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH A TEMPORARILY FLATTENED
WESTERLY FLOW NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES (ENERGY USE): BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MON-WED;  NEAR NORMAL FRI,  CHILLING
AGAIN SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 MAV/MET FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THE 00Z/25 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE 05Z/25
WPC D4-8 ELEMENTS OF DEWPOINTS/WIND/SKY/POP/MAX-MIN TEMPS WERE NOT USED
FOR THE LONGER RANGE DUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT
STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

THE DAILIES...
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WSA IN DIFFERING SEGMENTS TO BE REFINED WHEN
WATCHES CONVERT TO WARNINGS AND OR ADVISORIES.

MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES OF NE NJ ARE SEPARATED AS WINTER STORM
WATCH, BUT READY TO TO CONVERT TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IF THREE
SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ARE CORRECT.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE 00Z/25 CYCLE WITH THE NAM THE MAIN OUTLIER
RIGHT NOW. THE UKMET IS LARGE BUT A FASTER DEPARTURE THAN THE ECMWF.

MONDAY: SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BUT AN ADVISORY NOT
ISSUED SINCE WE DID NOT WISH TO DRAW ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE
POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TOO WARM FOR
MUCH ACCUMULATION FAR SNJ AND MUCH OF THE DELMARVA. THE ARCTIC
FRONT AND ITS SLOWLY DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER COLD IS CRUCIAL FOR
THE LIFT OF THE SELY 850MB FLOW AND A GENERAL SNOW IN EASTERN
PA/MUCH OF NJ.  COMMUTES IMPACTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.


MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ETC ALL
HINGING ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM. OVERALL, THIS
LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR STORM FOR US AND POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN NE NJ. OUR FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLY SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE BUT AMOUNTS ARE NOT SET YET. JUST GIVES AN IDEA.
ITS A WATCH. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN E PA AND NJ ESPECIALLY FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THOSE PLANS MAY NEED
MAJOR ALTERATION.

THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MID ATLC COASTAL UPPER LOW/EXPLOSIVE SFC
INTENSIFICATION SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL PROBABLY HAVE DEFORMATION
BANDING POSSIBLY REACHING BACK TO NJ.

WATCHES DO NOT MEAN A DONE DEAL BUT DO PAY ATTENTION. A DRIER
MORE POWDERY SNOW WILL BE EASIER TO ACCUMULATE IN THE COLDER
AIRMASS THAN JUST WHAT OCCURRED EARLY SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME A
FACTOR IN BLOWING/DRIFTING, MAINLY IN NJ/DEL.

THE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PORTION HAS UNCERTAINTY AND SOMEWHAT LESS
CONFIDENCE THAN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

OUR POSTED STORM TOTALS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN
FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO
SOME RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR
NOW. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY AT RDG/ABE BEFORE
LIFTING. STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY UNDER
WESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED. SOME BACKING IN THE WINDS
IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM RIDING TOWARDS THE EAST, WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. MINIMAL RAIN/SNOW MIXING EXPECTED...MOSTLY WELL SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN DELAWARE. EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AROUND 1-2 INCHES PHL/ILG/TTN/PNE, MAYBE 2-3
INCHES RDG/ABE.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR OR INTERMITTENT IFR
NORTH IN SNOW OR PERIODS OF SNOW. N-NE WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT AT
TIMES WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE VCNTY KACY. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...IFR POSSIBLE EARLY IN COMMA HEAD BENT BACK BANDING OF THE
BIG NOREASTER THEN PROBABLY BECOMING VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY STRONGER VCNTY
KACY.  AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WED: MOSTLY VFR. N-NW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE:

THURSDAY: CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE IN A PERIOD OF PCPN DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WE REMOVED THE SCA ON THE BAY AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE BELOW
THRESHOLDS. THE OCEAN FRONT CONTINUES TO GO THROUGH 18Z TODAY THOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR SOUTHERN WATERS MAY BE PULLED SOONER AS SEAS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH
LATE AS WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE AS DO THE WINDS. GALE WARNINGS/STORM
WATCHES IN PLACE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS BUT
POCKETS OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. HAVE FORECAST WHERE THE STORM FORCE
50 KT GUSTS OVER THE NJ WATER WHERE THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR,
BUT WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS MAY
OCCUR IN THE DELAWARE WATERS AS WELL. THE HEADLINES ARE THE MOST
LIKELY WORST CASE SCENARIO.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE, MAINLY THE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ021>024.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     454-455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 430
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER 430
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER 430
LONG TERM...DRAG 430
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 430
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER 430
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...430






000
FXUS61 KPHI 250930
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
430 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AT DAWN WILL
SLIDE DOWN INTO A LATE DAY POSITION FROM SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY WEST
INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT LOW WILL REACH
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN TURN NORTH NORTHEAST
INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY AS IT NEARS CAPE COD TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL REDEVELOP
ON THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY PULLS FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST AN
ARCTIC-TYPE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS ONE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...THIS IS DRIVING THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY. WAY BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS THE ENERGY THAT WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THE MUCH LARGER COASTAL
NOR`EASTER EXPECTED ON MONDAY-TUESDAY.

OVERALL A DRY AND TRANQUIL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON
USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. THE MORNING STRATOCU SHOULD LIFT AND
MIX OUT A LITTLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DECENT DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH CLOSE TO 40F THIS AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY
WARMER SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY, AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AS MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ADVECT IN BEGINNING LATER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
BROAD SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, RIDING ALONG THE SAGGING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING, WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND TAKE MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING WAA, IN RESPONSE TO THIS
PROCESS, WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION AS A LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BREAK
OUT FROM WEST-EAST. ONSET TIMING IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE INCREASING CHANCES
DURING THE LATE EVENING. PTYPE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE
TO TRANSITION COLDER (BELOW 0C) JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...WAA SHOULD KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF DOVER WHILE NORTHWARD
IS ALL SNOW.

DECENT CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT, BOTH
THERMALLY AND DYNAMICALLY. GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A NOSE OF A TENTH OF
LIQUID FROM A PHL/ABE LINE WEST SO THIS IS WHERE WE SHOULD SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" IN AND AROUND
PHILLY, 2-3" FARTHER WEST TOWARDS RDG...MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS SATURDAY MORNING.

EVEN THOUGH THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WE DID
NOT WANT TO ADD TO ANY CONFUSION WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES DEALING WITH THE SAME EVENT...JUST TWO DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY. GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL STORM BEGINNING
LATER ON MONDAY...SEE LONG TERM DISCO...WE DECIDED TO FORGO AN
ADVISORY BUT MAKE MENTION OF THE EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL IN THE
HWO/WSW PRODUCTS.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: A STRONG SHORT WAVE MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTENSIFIES INTO A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY. RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF ITS MARITIMES DEPARTURE FOLLOWS TO
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE REACHES
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH A TEMPORARILY FLATTENED
WESTERLY FLOW NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES (ENERGY USE): BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MON-WED;  NEAR NORMAL FRI,  CHILLING
AGAIN SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 MAV/MET FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THE 00Z/25 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE 05Z/25
WPC D4-8 ELEMENTS OF DEWPOINTS/WIND/SKY/POP/MAX-MIN TEMPS WERE NOT USED
FOR THE LONGER RANGE DUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT
STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

THE DAILIES...
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WSA IN DIFFERING SEGMENTS TO BE REFINED WHEN
WATCHES CONVERT TO WARNINGS AND OR ADVISORIES.

MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES OF NE NJ ARE SEPARATED AS WINTER STORM
WATCH, BUT READY TO TO CONVERT TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IF THREE
SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ARE CORRECT.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE 00Z/25 CYCLE WITH THE NAM THE MAIN OUTLIER
RIGHT NOW. THE UKMET IS LARGE BUT A FASTER DEPARTURE THAN THE ECMWF.

MONDAY: SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BUT AN ADVISORY NOT
ISSUED SINCE WE DID NOT WISH TO DRAW ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE
POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TOO WARM FOR
MUCH ACCUMULATION FAR SNJ AND MUCH OF THE DELMARVA. THE ARCTIC
FRONT AND ITS SLOWLY DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER COLD IS CRUCIAL FOR
THE LIFT OF THE SELY 850MB FLOW AND A GENERAL SNOW IN EASTERN
PA/MUCH OF NJ.  COMMUTES IMPACTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.


MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ETC ALL
HINGING ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM. OVERALL, THIS
LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR STORM FOR US AND POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN NE NJ. OUR FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLY SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE BUT AMOUNTS ARE NOT SET YET. JUST GIVES AN IDEA.
ITS A WATCH. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN E PA AND NJ ESPECIALLY FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THOSE PLANS MAY NEED
MAJOR ALTERATION.

THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MID ATLC COASTAL UPPER LOW/EXPLOSIVE SFC
INTENSIFICATION SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL PROBABLY HAVE DEFORMATION
BANDING POSSIBLY REACHING BACK TO NJ.

WATCHES DO NOT MEAN A DONE DEAL BUT DO PAY ATTENTION. A DRIER
MORE POWDERY SNOW WILL BE EASIER TO ACCUMULATE IN THE COLDER
AIRMASS THAN JUST WHAT OCCURRED EARLY SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME A
FACTOR IN BLOWING/DRIFTING, MAINLY IN NJ/DEL.

THE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PORTION HAS UNCERTAINTY AND SOMEWHAT LESS
CONFIDENCE THAN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

OUR POSTED STORM TOTALS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN
FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO
SOME RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR
NOW. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY AT RDG/ABE BEFORE
LIFTING. STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY UNDER
WESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED. SOME BACKING IN THE WINDS
IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM RIDING TOWARDS THE EAST, WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. MINIMAL RAIN/SNOW MIXING EXPECTED...MOSTLY WELL SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN DELAWARE. EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AROUND 1-2 INCHES PHL/ILG/TTN/PNE, MAYBE 2-3
INCHES RDG/ABE.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR OR INTERMITTENT IFR
NORTH IN SNOW OR PERIODS OF SNOW. N-NE WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT AT
TIMES WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE VCNTY KACY. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...IFR POSSIBLE EARLY IN COMMA HEAD BENT BACK BANDING OF THE
BIG NOREASTER THEN PROBABLY BECOMING VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY STRONGER VCNTY
KACY.  AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WED: MOSTLY VFR. N-NW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE:

THURSDAY: CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE IN A PERIOD OF PCPN DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WE REMOVED THE SCA ON THE BAY AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE BELOW
THRESHOLDS. THE OCEAN FRONT CONTINUES TO GO THROUGH 18Z TODAY THOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR SOUTHERN WATERS MAY BE PULLED SOONER AS SEAS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH
LATE AS WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE AS DO THE WINDS. GALE WARNINGS/STORM
WATCHES IN PLACE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS BUT
POCKETS OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. HAVE FORECAST WHERE THE STORM FORCE
50 KT GUSTS OVER THE NJ WATER WHERE THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR,
BUT WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS MAY
OCCUR IN THE DELAWARE WATERS AS WELL. THE HEADLINES ARE THE MOST
LIKELY WORST CASE SCENARIO.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE, MAINLY THE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ021>024.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     454-455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 430
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER 430
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER 430
LONG TERM...DRAG 430
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 430
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER 430
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...430






000
FXUS61 KPHI 250930
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
430 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AT DAWN WILL
SLIDE DOWN INTO A LATE DAY POSITION FROM SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY WEST
INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT LOW WILL REACH
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN TURN NORTH NORTHEAST
INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY AS IT NEARS CAPE COD TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL REDEVELOP
ON THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY PULLS FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST AN
ARCTIC-TYPE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS ONE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...THIS IS DRIVING THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY. WAY BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS THE ENERGY THAT WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THE MUCH LARGER COASTAL
NOR`EASTER EXPECTED ON MONDAY-TUESDAY.

OVERALL A DRY AND TRANQUIL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON
USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. THE MORNING STRATOCU SHOULD LIFT AND
MIX OUT A LITTLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DECENT DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH CLOSE TO 40F THIS AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY
WARMER SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY, AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AS MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ADVECT IN BEGINNING LATER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
BROAD SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, RIDING ALONG THE SAGGING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING, WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND TAKE MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING WAA, IN RESPONSE TO THIS
PROCESS, WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION AS A LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BREAK
OUT FROM WEST-EAST. ONSET TIMING IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE INCREASING CHANCES
DURING THE LATE EVENING. PTYPE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE
TO TRANSITION COLDER (BELOW 0C) JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...WAA SHOULD KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF DOVER WHILE NORTHWARD
IS ALL SNOW.

DECENT CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT, BOTH
THERMALLY AND DYNAMICALLY. GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A NOSE OF A TENTH OF
LIQUID FROM A PHL/ABE LINE WEST SO THIS IS WHERE WE SHOULD SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" IN AND AROUND
PHILLY, 2-3" FARTHER WEST TOWARDS RDG...MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS SATURDAY MORNING.

EVEN THOUGH THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WE DID
NOT WANT TO ADD TO ANY CONFUSION WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES DEALING WITH THE SAME EVENT...JUST TWO DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY. GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL STORM BEGINNING
LATER ON MONDAY...SEE LONG TERM DISCO...WE DECIDED TO FORGO AN
ADVISORY BUT MAKE MENTION OF THE EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL IN THE
HWO/WSW PRODUCTS.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: A STRONG SHORT WAVE MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTENSIFIES INTO A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY. RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF ITS MARITIMES DEPARTURE FOLLOWS TO
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE REACHES
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH A TEMPORARILY FLATTENED
WESTERLY FLOW NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES (ENERGY USE): BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MON-WED;  NEAR NORMAL FRI,  CHILLING
AGAIN SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 MAV/MET FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THE 00Z/25 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE 05Z/25
WPC D4-8 ELEMENTS OF DEWPOINTS/WIND/SKY/POP/MAX-MIN TEMPS WERE NOT USED
FOR THE LONGER RANGE DUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT
STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

THE DAILIES...
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WSA IN DIFFERING SEGMENTS TO BE REFINED WHEN
WATCHES CONVERT TO WARNINGS AND OR ADVISORIES.

MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES OF NE NJ ARE SEPARATED AS WINTER STORM
WATCH, BUT READY TO TO CONVERT TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IF THREE
SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ARE CORRECT.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE 00Z/25 CYCLE WITH THE NAM THE MAIN OUTLIER
RIGHT NOW. THE UKMET IS LARGE BUT A FASTER DEPARTURE THAN THE ECMWF.

MONDAY: SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BUT AN ADVISORY NOT
ISSUED SINCE WE DID NOT WISH TO DRAW ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE
POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TOO WARM FOR
MUCH ACCUMULATION FAR SNJ AND MUCH OF THE DELMARVA. THE ARCTIC
FRONT AND ITS SLOWLY DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER COLD IS CRUCIAL FOR
THE LIFT OF THE SELY 850MB FLOW AND A GENERAL SNOW IN EASTERN
PA/MUCH OF NJ.  COMMUTES IMPACTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.


MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ETC ALL
HINGING ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM. OVERALL, THIS
LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR STORM FOR US AND POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN NE NJ. OUR FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLY SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE BUT AMOUNTS ARE NOT SET YET. JUST GIVES AN IDEA.
ITS A WATCH. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN E PA AND NJ ESPECIALLY FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THOSE PLANS MAY NEED
MAJOR ALTERATION.

THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MID ATLC COASTAL UPPER LOW/EXPLOSIVE SFC
INTENSIFICATION SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL PROBABLY HAVE DEFORMATION
BANDING POSSIBLY REACHING BACK TO NJ.

WATCHES DO NOT MEAN A DONE DEAL BUT DO PAY ATTENTION. A DRIER
MORE POWDERY SNOW WILL BE EASIER TO ACCUMULATE IN THE COLDER
AIRMASS THAN JUST WHAT OCCURRED EARLY SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME A
FACTOR IN BLOWING/DRIFTING, MAINLY IN NJ/DEL.

THE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PORTION HAS UNCERTAINTY AND SOMEWHAT LESS
CONFIDENCE THAN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

OUR POSTED STORM TOTALS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN
FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO
SOME RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR
NOW. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY AT RDG/ABE BEFORE
LIFTING. STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY UNDER
WESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED. SOME BACKING IN THE WINDS
IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM RIDING TOWARDS THE EAST, WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. MINIMAL RAIN/SNOW MIXING EXPECTED...MOSTLY WELL SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN DELAWARE. EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AROUND 1-2 INCHES PHL/ILG/TTN/PNE, MAYBE 2-3
INCHES RDG/ABE.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR OR INTERMITTENT IFR
NORTH IN SNOW OR PERIODS OF SNOW. N-NE WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT AT
TIMES WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE VCNTY KACY. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...IFR POSSIBLE EARLY IN COMMA HEAD BENT BACK BANDING OF THE
BIG NOREASTER THEN PROBABLY BECOMING VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY STRONGER VCNTY
KACY.  AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WED: MOSTLY VFR. N-NW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE:

THURSDAY: CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE IN A PERIOD OF PCPN DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WE REMOVED THE SCA ON THE BAY AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE BELOW
THRESHOLDS. THE OCEAN FRONT CONTINUES TO GO THROUGH 18Z TODAY THOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR SOUTHERN WATERS MAY BE PULLED SOONER AS SEAS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH
LATE AS WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE AS DO THE WINDS. GALE WARNINGS/STORM
WATCHES IN PLACE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS BUT
POCKETS OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. HAVE FORECAST WHERE THE STORM FORCE
50 KT GUSTS OVER THE NJ WATER WHERE THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR,
BUT WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS MAY
OCCUR IN THE DELAWARE WATERS AS WELL. THE HEADLINES ARE THE MOST
LIKELY WORST CASE SCENARIO.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE, MAINLY THE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ021>024.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     454-455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 430
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER 430
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER 430
LONG TERM...DRAG 430
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 430
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER 430
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...430






000
FXUS61 KPHI 250930
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
430 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AT DAWN WILL
SLIDE DOWN INTO A LATE DAY POSITION FROM SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY WEST
INTO LOW PRESSURE OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. THAT LOW WILL REACH
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST MONDAY MORNING THEN TURN NORTH NORTHEAST
INTENSIFYING VERY RAPIDLY AS IT NEARS CAPE COD TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWS BY LATE WEDNESDAY, THEN ANOTHER LOW WILL REDEVELOP
ON THE NEXT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST LATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS THE LOW PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY PULLS FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST AN
ARCTIC-TYPE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH OUR REGION THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS MORNING SHOWS ONE TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
NORTHEAST WHILE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE AXIS PUSHES THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES...THIS IS DRIVING THE ARCTIC FRONT TODAY. WAY BACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PLAINS IS THE ENERGY THAT WILL BE THE DRIVING FORCE FOR THE
CLIPPER SYSTEM LATE TONIGHT AND THEN THE MUCH LARGER COASTAL
NOR`EASTER EXPECTED ON MONDAY-TUESDAY.

OVERALL A DRY AND TRANQUIL DAY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. THE
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SLIP THROUGH THE REGION BY THIS AFTERNOON
USHERING IN A COOLER AIRMASS. THE MORNING STRATOCU SHOULD LIFT AND
MIX OUT A LITTLE AS THE DAY WEARS ON. DECENT DOWNSLOPING COMPONENT
SHOULD ALLOW HIGHS TO REACH CLOSE TO 40F THIS AFTERNOON, SLIGHTLY
WARMER SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY, AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BEHIND THE FRONT WEAK MID-LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION OCCURS TO OUR
SOUTHWEST AS MORE MOISTURE AND CLOUDS ADVECT IN BEGINNING LATER THIS
EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
BROAD SCALE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE, RIDING ALONG THE SAGGING COLD
FRONT LATER THIS EVENING, WILL PASS TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH WITH WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR THE
MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE DRIVING THE SURFACE LOW TO DEEPEN AND TAKE MORE
OF A NEGATIVE TILT TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING WAA, IN RESPONSE TO THIS
PROCESS, WILL OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION AS A LIGHT SNOW SHOULD BREAK
OUT FROM WEST-EAST. ONSET TIMING IS STILL A BIT OF A QUESTION BUT A
MAJORITY OF THE HI-RES GUIDANCE IS SHOWING THE INCREASING CHANCES
DURING THE LATE EVENING. PTYPE SHOULD NOT BE MUCH OF AN ISSUE EXCEPT
ACROSS OUR EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES AS LOW-LEVEL TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE
TO TRANSITION COLDER (BELOW 0C) JUST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
LOW...WAA SHOULD KEEP A RAIN/SNOW MIX SOUTH OF DOVER WHILE NORTHWARD
IS ALL SNOW.

DECENT CONVERGENCE ACROSS OUR CENTRAL ZONES LATE TONIGHT, BOTH
THERMALLY AND DYNAMICALLY. GUIDANCE IS PAINTING A NOSE OF A TENTH OF
LIQUID FROM A PHL/ABE LINE WEST SO THIS IS WHERE WE SHOULD SEE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER SNOW AMOUNTS...ON THE ORDER OF 1-2" IN AND AROUND
PHILLY, 2-3" FARTHER WEST TOWARDS RDG...MESOSCALE BANDING POTENTIAL
ALSO EXISTS ALBEIT NOT NEARLY AS ROBUST AS SATURDAY MORNING.

EVEN THOUGH THIS SNOW WILL AFFECT THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE WE DID
NOT WANT TO ADD TO ANY CONFUSION WITH MULTIPLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES DEALING WITH THE SAME EVENT...JUST TWO DIFFERENT PIECES OF
ENERGY. GIVEN WE ARE EXPECTING A MUCH MORE IMPACTFUL STORM BEGINNING
LATER ON MONDAY...SEE LONG TERM DISCO...WE DECIDED TO FORGO AN
ADVISORY BUT MAKE MENTION OF THE EARLY MORNING SNOWFALL IN THE
HWO/WSW PRODUCTS.


&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: A STRONG SHORT WAVE MONDAY MORNING OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS INTENSIFIES INTO A CLOSED LOW SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND
TUESDAY. RIDGING IN THE WAKE OF ITS MARITIMES DEPARTURE FOLLOWS TO
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY. A SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING SHORT WAVE REACHES
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST FRIDAY WITH A TEMPORARILY FLATTENED
WESTERLY FLOW NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES (ENERGY USE): BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY,
POSSIBLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW MON-WED;  NEAR NORMAL FRI,  CHILLING
AGAIN SATURDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 MAV/MET FOR MONDAY-TUESDAY.
THE 00Z/25 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE 05Z/25
WPC D4-8 ELEMENTS OF DEWPOINTS/WIND/SKY/POP/MAX-MIN TEMPS WERE NOT USED
FOR THE LONGER RANGE DUE TO FOCUS ON THE POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT
STORM FOR MONDAY NIGHT.

THE DAILIES...
MONDAY-TUESDAY...WSA IN DIFFERING SEGMENTS TO BE REFINED WHEN
WATCHES CONVERT TO WARNINGS AND OR ADVISORIES.

MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES OF NE NJ ARE SEPARATED AS WINTER STORM
WATCH, BUT READY TO TO CONVERT TO A BLIZZARD WARNING IF THREE
SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL AND ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS
ARE CORRECT.

MODEL DISAGREEMENT FOR THE 00Z/25 CYCLE WITH THE NAM THE MAIN OUTLIER
RIGHT NOW. THE UKMET IS LARGE BUT A FASTER DEPARTURE THAN THE ECMWF.

MONDAY: SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED BUT AN ADVISORY NOT
ISSUED SINCE WE DID NOT WISH TO DRAW ATTENTION AWAY FROM THE
POTENTIALLY VERY HIGH IMPACT EVENT FOR MONDAY NIGHT. TOO WARM FOR
MUCH ACCUMULATION FAR SNJ AND MUCH OF THE DELMARVA. THE ARCTIC
FRONT AND ITS SLOWLY DEEPENING BOUNDARY LAYER COLD IS CRUCIAL FOR
THE LIFT OF THE SELY 850MB FLOW AND A GENERAL SNOW IN EASTERN
PA/MUCH OF NJ.  COMMUTES IMPACTED.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.


MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING...UNCERTAINTY ON AMOUNTS ETC ALL
HINGING ON INTENSITY AND TRACK OF A COASTAL STORM. OVERALL, THIS
LOOKS LIKE A MAJOR STORM FOR US AND POTENTIAL FOR NEAR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS IN NE NJ. OUR FORECAST AMOUNTS ARE PROBABLY SOMEWHAT
CONSERVATIVE BUT AMOUNTS ARE NOT SET YET. JUST GIVES AN IDEA.
ITS A WATCH. THOSE WITH TRAVEL PLANS IN E PA AND NJ ESPECIALLY FOR
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD BE AWARE THAT THOSE PLANS MAY NEED
MAJOR ALTERATION.

THE MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MID ATLC COASTAL UPPER LOW/EXPLOSIVE SFC
INTENSIFICATION SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WILL PROBABLY HAVE DEFORMATION
BANDING POSSIBLY REACHING BACK TO NJ.

WATCHES DO NOT MEAN A DONE DEAL BUT DO PAY ATTENTION. A DRIER
MORE POWDERY SNOW WILL BE EASIER TO ACCUMULATE IN THE COLDER
AIRMASS THAN JUST WHAT OCCURRED EARLY SATURDAY. WIND WILL BECOME A
FACTOR IN BLOWING/DRIFTING, MAINLY IN NJ/DEL.

THE MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY PORTION HAS UNCERTAINTY AND SOMEWHAT LESS
CONFIDENCE THAN THE FORECAST FOR MONDAY.

OUR POSTED STORM TOTALS FOR THIS PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER
THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN
FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL DOMINATE DURING THIS
PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO
SOME RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR
NOW. TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY AT RDG/ABE BEFORE
LIFTING. STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY UNDER
WESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED. SOME BACKING IN THE WINDS
IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM RIDING TOWARDS THE EAST, WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. MINIMAL RAIN/SNOW MIXING EXPECTED...MOSTLY WELL SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN DELAWARE. EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AROUND 1-2 INCHES PHL/ILG/TTN/PNE, MAYBE 2-3
INCHES RDG/ABE.

OUTLOOK...
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR OR INTERMITTENT IFR
NORTH IN SNOW OR PERIODS OF SNOW. N-NE WINDS GUSTING 20-30 KT AT
TIMES WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE VCNTY KACY. VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUE...IFR POSSIBLE EARLY IN COMMA HEAD BENT BACK BANDING OF THE
BIG NOREASTER THEN PROBABLY BECOMING VFR BY LATE IN THE DAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING 20-30KT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY STRONGER VCNTY
KACY.  AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY NIGHT-WED: MOSTLY VFR. N-NW WINDS. HIGH CONFIDENCE:

THURSDAY: CONDITIONS MAY DEGRADE IN A PERIOD OF PCPN DURING THE
AFTERNOON OR NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WE REMOVED THE SCA ON THE BAY AS WINDS AND SEAS ARE BELOW
THRESHOLDS. THE OCEAN FRONT CONTINUES TO GO THROUGH 18Z TODAY THOUGH
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT OUR SOUTHERN WATERS MAY BE PULLED SOONER AS SEAS
CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE MORNING.

TONIGHT...SUB-SCA EXPECTED. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE BY TO OUR SOUTH
LATE AS WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. SEAS BEGIN TO BUILD
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WATERS LATE AS DO THE WINDS. GALE WARNINGS/STORM
WATCHES IN PLACE STARTING MONDAY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS BUT
POCKETS OF STORM FORCE GUSTS. HAVE FORECAST WHERE THE STORM FORCE
50 KT GUSTS OVER THE NJ WATER WHERE THEY ARE MOST LIKELY TO OCCUR,
BUT WITH THE UNDERSTANDING THAT ISOLATED STORM FORCE GUSTS MAY
OCCUR IN THE DELAWARE WATERS AS WELL. THE HEADLINES ARE THE MOST
LIKELY WORST CASE SCENARIO.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY...MAINLY SCA CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TO
POSSIBLY MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING SHOULD OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF
HIGH TIDE, MAINLY THE MIDNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR PAZ054-055-060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-012>020-026-027.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR NJZ021>024.
DE...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR DEZ001.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR DEZ002>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY
     MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
     FOR MDZ012-015-019-020.
MARINE...STORM WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>453.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ431-
     454-455.
     GALE WARNING FROM 5 PM MONDAY TO 11 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 430
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER 430
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER 430
LONG TERM...DRAG 430
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER 430
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER 430
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...430






000
FXUS61 KPHI 250552
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1252 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN MOVE UP ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD, THEN ANOTHER LOW MAY AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A DEEP SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO OUR EAST.

THE DRYING THAT OCCURRED ALLOWED THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST
TO EAST, HOWEVER ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST
WHICH IS BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT, THE CLOUDS
WERE INCREASED SOME FOR A TIME FROM WEST TO EAST. OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS, ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE WEST WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE IS LOCATED ALONG WITH
SOME INCOMING WEAK WAA. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW HAS INCREASED
SOME AND THIS WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE GROUND MOISTURE A BIT.
HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT
COMBINED WITH A COLD GROUND, WILL LEAD TO UNTREATED WET SURFACES
REFREEZING.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
WHICH INCLUDED SHOWING A BIT HIGHER TEMPERATURES TO START. THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP WITH THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A RELATIVELY QUIET DAYTIME IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, WITH
SOME BRIEF, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH ON
THE HORIZON WILL BE A CLIPPER LOW TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. FOR MOST OF THE DAY, INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN IS ANTICIPATED GOING INTO THE
EVENING FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH THE APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET, THOUGH,
FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND
PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY WAS USED FOR DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES, AND
WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUN EVENING TO A POSITION
OFF THE COAST MON AFTERNOON. IT WILL BRING A 24 HR PERIOD OF MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SRN PA/NE MD AND DEL DURING THE PERIOD. A COUPLE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW COULD OCCUR...BUT SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES SRN PA/SRN NJ AND 2 TO 4 NE MD AND DEL WILL OCCUR. THE LOW
WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SO WINDS/BLOWING SNOW NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT MUCH OF AN ISSUE. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 20 NORTH AND
LOW/MID 30S OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. A BIT OF RAIN COULD MIX IN
WITH THE SNOW OVER SRN DEL ON MONDAY.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSHORE MON NIGHT
AND OTHER ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MEET IT CAUSING A
DEEP LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY CREATING GUSTY WINDS AND A SHIELD OF HEAVY QPF.
THIS HEAVY QPF (SNOW) WILL FALL ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SE NJ FOR A
TIME MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM...AND ANY TRACK FURTHER
WEST WOULD BRING EXCESSIVE SNOWS INTO THE NJ AREA TUE. WE HAVE NOT
GONE THIS ROUTE PRESENTLY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z EC MODEL SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS. THE 12Z EC MODEL HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BY WPC DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE WWD AND
PAINTED SOME ACCUM SNOW ACROSS ERN NJ TUE. OUR TOTALS FOR THIS
PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY
ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WED
MOSTLY IN THE LOW 20S UP NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SRN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA. COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND TEENS SOUTH.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME
RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED. HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY AT RDG/ABE BEFORE
LIFTING. STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY UNDER
WESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED. SOME BACKING IN THE WINDS
IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM RIDING TOWARDS THE EAST, WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. MINIMAL RAIN/SNOW MIXING EXPECTED...MOSTLY WELL SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN DELAWARE. EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AROUND AN INCH PHL/ILG, MAYBE 2 INCHES
RDG.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR NORTH WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. STEADY SNOW
ILG/PHL/PNE/MIV/ACY.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR INLAND BUT IFR/MVFR AT KACY/KMIV WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST. STRONG NE/N WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, AND
SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR DELAWARE BAY AND THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY, WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXTENDED UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION TO THE
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE,
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING. SCA CONDITIONS BY MON DAWN.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WITH FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...HEAVENER/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 250552
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1252 AM EST SUN JAN 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN MOVE UP ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD, THEN ANOTHER LOW MAY AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
A DEEP SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO OUR EAST.

THE DRYING THAT OCCURRED ALLOWED THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST
TO EAST, HOWEVER ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST
WHICH IS BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT, THE CLOUDS
WERE INCREASED SOME FOR A TIME FROM WEST TO EAST. OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS, ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE WEST WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE IS LOCATED ALONG WITH
SOME INCOMING WEAK WAA. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW HAS INCREASED
SOME AND THIS WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE GROUND MOISTURE A BIT.
HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT
COMBINED WITH A COLD GROUND, WILL LEAD TO UNTREATED WET SURFACES
REFREEZING.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
WHICH INCLUDED SHOWING A BIT HIGHER TEMPERATURES TO START. THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP WITH THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
OVERALL, A RELATIVELY QUIET DAYTIME IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, WITH
SOME BRIEF, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH ON
THE HORIZON WILL BE A CLIPPER LOW TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. FOR MOST OF THE DAY, INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN IS ANTICIPATED GOING INTO THE
EVENING FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH THE APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET, THOUGH,
FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND
PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY WAS USED FOR DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES, AND
WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUN EVENING TO A POSITION
OFF THE COAST MON AFTERNOON. IT WILL BRING A 24 HR PERIOD OF MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SRN PA/NE MD AND DEL DURING THE PERIOD. A COUPLE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW COULD OCCUR...BUT SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES SRN PA/SRN NJ AND 2 TO 4 NE MD AND DEL WILL OCCUR. THE LOW
WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SO WINDS/BLOWING SNOW NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT MUCH OF AN ISSUE. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 20 NORTH AND
LOW/MID 30S OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. A BIT OF RAIN COULD MIX IN
WITH THE SNOW OVER SRN DEL ON MONDAY.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSHORE MON NIGHT
AND OTHER ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MEET IT CAUSING A
DEEP LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY CREATING GUSTY WINDS AND A SHIELD OF HEAVY QPF.
THIS HEAVY QPF (SNOW) WILL FALL ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SE NJ FOR A
TIME MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM...AND ANY TRACK FURTHER
WEST WOULD BRING EXCESSIVE SNOWS INTO THE NJ AREA TUE. WE HAVE NOT
GONE THIS ROUTE PRESENTLY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z EC MODEL SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS. THE 12Z EC MODEL HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BY WPC DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE WWD AND
PAINTED SOME ACCUM SNOW ACROSS ERN NJ TUE. OUR TOTALS FOR THIS
PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY
ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WED
MOSTLY IN THE LOW 20S UP NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SRN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA. COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND TEENS SOUTH.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME
RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED. HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR. SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE EARLY AT RDG/ABE BEFORE
LIFTING. STRATOCU DECK WILL REMAIN IN PLACE MOST OF THE DAY UNDER
WESTERLY WINDS WITH SOME GUSTS EXPECTED. SOME BACKING IN THE WINDS
IS EXPECTED LATER THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING CLIPPER-LIKE
SYSTEM RIDING TOWARDS THE EAST, WELL SOUTH OF OUR REGION.

TONIGHT...MVFR/IFR IN AREAS OF SNOW. TIMING IS STILL A BIT SUSPECT
BUT LIGHT SNOW SHOULD OVERSPREAD FROM THE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST BY
LATE TONIGHT. MINIMAL RAIN/SNOW MIXING EXPECTED...MOSTLY WELL SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN DELAWARE. EXPECT SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AROUND AN INCH PHL/ILG, MAYBE 2 INCHES
RDG.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR NORTH WITH A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. STEADY SNOW
ILG/PHL/PNE/MIV/ACY.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR INLAND BUT IFR/MVFR AT KACY/KMIV WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST. STRONG NE/N WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, AND
SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR DELAWARE BAY AND THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY, WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXTENDED UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION TO THE
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE,
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING. SCA CONDITIONS BY MON DAWN.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WITH FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...HEAVENER/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 250230
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN MOVE UP ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD, THEN ANOTHER LOW MAY AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A DEEP SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO OUR EAST.

THE DRYING THAT OCCURRED ALLOWED THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST
TO EAST, HOWEVER ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST
WHICH IS BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT, THE CLOUDS
WERE INCREASED SOME FOR A TIME FROM WEST TO EAST. OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS, ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE WEST WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE IS LOCATED ALONG WITH
SOME INCOMING WEAK WAA. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW HAS INCREASED
SOME AND THIS WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE GROUND MOISTURE A BIT.
HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT
COMBINED WITH A COLD GROUND, WILL LEAD TO UNTREATED WET SURFACES
REFREEZING.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
WHICH INCLUDED SHOWING A BIT HIGHER TEMPERATURES TO START. THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP WITH THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
OVERALL, A RELATIVELY QUIET DAYTIME IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, WITH
SOME BRIEF, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH ON
THE HORIZON WILL BE A CLIPPER LOW TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. FOR MOST OF THE DAY, INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN IS ANTICIPATED GOING INTO THE
EVENING FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH THE APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET, THOUGH,
FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND
PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY WAS USED FOR DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES, AND
WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUN EVENING TO A POSITION
OFF THE COAST MON AFTERNOON. IT WILL BRING A 24 HR PERIOD OF MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SRN PA/NE MD AND DEL DURING THE PERIOD. A COUPLE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW COULD OCCUR...BUT SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES SRN PA/SRN NJ AND 2 TO 4 NE MD AND DEL WILL OCCUR. THE LOW
WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SO WINDS/BLOWING SNOW NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT MUCH OF AN ISSUE. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 20 NORTH AND
LOW/MID 30S OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. A BIT OF RAIN COULD MIX IN
WITH THE SNOW OVER SRN DEL ON MONDAY.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSHORE MON NIGHT
AND OTHER ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MEET IT CAUSING A
DEEP LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY CREATING GUSTY WINDS AND A SHIELD OF HEAVY QPF.
THIS HEAVY QPF (SNOW) WILL FALL ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SE NJ FOR A
TIME MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM...AND ANY TRACK FURTHER
WEST WOULD BRING EXCESSIVE SNOWS INTO THE NJ AREA TUE. WE HAVE NOT
GONE THIS ROUTE PRESENTLY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z EC MODEL SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS. THE 12Z EC MODEL HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BY WPC DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE WWD AND
PAINTED SOME ACCUM SNOW ACROSS ERN NJ TUE. OUR TOTALS FOR THIS
PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY
ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WED
MOSTLY IN THE LOW 20S UP NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SRN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA. COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND TEENS SOUTH.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME
RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED. HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL. A CEILING MAINLY 4000-7000 FEET
SHOULD SLIDE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, THEN
SOME THINNING IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR. SOME MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
STAY WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
OVERALL /LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/.

SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL, WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME STRATOCUMULUS AROUND, WHICH COULD BECOME BROKEN IN
COVERAGE AT TIMES. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING NORTH OR
NORTHEAST AND DIMINISHING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW WHICH WILL ARRIVE AT MOST OF
TH TERMINALS BY DAWN MON.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR NORTH WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. STEADY SNOW ILG/PHL/PNE/MIV/ACY.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR INLAND BUT IFR/MVFR AT KACY/KMIV WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST. STRONG NE/N WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, AND
SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR DELAWARE BAY AND THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY, WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXTENDED UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION TO THE
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE,
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING. SCA CONDITIONS BY MON DAWN.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WITH FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 250230
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN MOVE UP ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD, THEN ANOTHER LOW MAY AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A DEEP SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO OUR EAST.

THE DRYING THAT OCCURRED ALLOWED THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST
TO EAST, HOWEVER ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST
WHICH IS BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT, THE CLOUDS
WERE INCREASED SOME FOR A TIME FROM WEST TO EAST. OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS, ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE WEST WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE IS LOCATED ALONG WITH
SOME INCOMING WEAK WAA. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW HAS INCREASED
SOME AND THIS WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE GROUND MOISTURE A BIT.
HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT
COMBINED WITH A COLD GROUND, WILL LEAD TO UNTREATED WET SURFACES
REFREEZING.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
WHICH INCLUDED SHOWING A BIT HIGHER TEMPERATURES TO START. THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP WITH THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
OVERALL, A RELATIVELY QUIET DAYTIME IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, WITH
SOME BRIEF, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH ON
THE HORIZON WILL BE A CLIPPER LOW TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. FOR MOST OF THE DAY, INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN IS ANTICIPATED GOING INTO THE
EVENING FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH THE APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET, THOUGH,
FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND
PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY WAS USED FOR DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES, AND
WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUN EVENING TO A POSITION
OFF THE COAST MON AFTERNOON. IT WILL BRING A 24 HR PERIOD OF MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SRN PA/NE MD AND DEL DURING THE PERIOD. A COUPLE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW COULD OCCUR...BUT SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES SRN PA/SRN NJ AND 2 TO 4 NE MD AND DEL WILL OCCUR. THE LOW
WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SO WINDS/BLOWING SNOW NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT MUCH OF AN ISSUE. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 20 NORTH AND
LOW/MID 30S OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. A BIT OF RAIN COULD MIX IN
WITH THE SNOW OVER SRN DEL ON MONDAY.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSHORE MON NIGHT
AND OTHER ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MEET IT CAUSING A
DEEP LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY CREATING GUSTY WINDS AND A SHIELD OF HEAVY QPF.
THIS HEAVY QPF (SNOW) WILL FALL ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SE NJ FOR A
TIME MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM...AND ANY TRACK FURTHER
WEST WOULD BRING EXCESSIVE SNOWS INTO THE NJ AREA TUE. WE HAVE NOT
GONE THIS ROUTE PRESENTLY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z EC MODEL SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS. THE 12Z EC MODEL HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BY WPC DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE WWD AND
PAINTED SOME ACCUM SNOW ACROSS ERN NJ TUE. OUR TOTALS FOR THIS
PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY
ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WED
MOSTLY IN THE LOW 20S UP NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SRN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA. COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND TEENS SOUTH.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME
RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED. HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL. A CEILING MAINLY 4000-7000 FEET
SHOULD SLIDE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, THEN
SOME THINNING IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR. SOME MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
STAY WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
OVERALL /LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/.

SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL, WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME STRATOCUMULUS AROUND, WHICH COULD BECOME BROKEN IN
COVERAGE AT TIMES. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING NORTH OR
NORTHEAST AND DIMINISHING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW WHICH WILL ARRIVE AT MOST OF
TH TERMINALS BY DAWN MON.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR NORTH WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. STEADY SNOW ILG/PHL/PNE/MIV/ACY.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR INLAND BUT IFR/MVFR AT KACY/KMIV WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST. STRONG NE/N WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, AND
SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR DELAWARE BAY AND THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY, WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXTENDED UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION TO THE
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE,
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING. SCA CONDITIONS BY MON DAWN.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WITH FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 250230
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN MOVE UP ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD, THEN ANOTHER LOW MAY AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A DEEP SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO OUR EAST.

THE DRYING THAT OCCURRED ALLOWED THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST
TO EAST, HOWEVER ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST
WHICH IS BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT, THE CLOUDS
WERE INCREASED SOME FOR A TIME FROM WEST TO EAST. OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS, ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE WEST WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE IS LOCATED ALONG WITH
SOME INCOMING WEAK WAA. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW HAS INCREASED
SOME AND THIS WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE GROUND MOISTURE A BIT.
HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT
COMBINED WITH A COLD GROUND, WILL LEAD TO UNTREATED WET SURFACES
REFREEZING.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
WHICH INCLUDED SHOWING A BIT HIGHER TEMPERATURES TO START. THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP WITH THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
OVERALL, A RELATIVELY QUIET DAYTIME IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, WITH
SOME BRIEF, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH ON
THE HORIZON WILL BE A CLIPPER LOW TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. FOR MOST OF THE DAY, INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN IS ANTICIPATED GOING INTO THE
EVENING FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH THE APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET, THOUGH,
FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND
PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY WAS USED FOR DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES, AND
WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUN EVENING TO A POSITION
OFF THE COAST MON AFTERNOON. IT WILL BRING A 24 HR PERIOD OF MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SRN PA/NE MD AND DEL DURING THE PERIOD. A COUPLE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW COULD OCCUR...BUT SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES SRN PA/SRN NJ AND 2 TO 4 NE MD AND DEL WILL OCCUR. THE LOW
WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SO WINDS/BLOWING SNOW NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT MUCH OF AN ISSUE. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 20 NORTH AND
LOW/MID 30S OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. A BIT OF RAIN COULD MIX IN
WITH THE SNOW OVER SRN DEL ON MONDAY.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSHORE MON NIGHT
AND OTHER ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MEET IT CAUSING A
DEEP LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY CREATING GUSTY WINDS AND A SHIELD OF HEAVY QPF.
THIS HEAVY QPF (SNOW) WILL FALL ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SE NJ FOR A
TIME MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM...AND ANY TRACK FURTHER
WEST WOULD BRING EXCESSIVE SNOWS INTO THE NJ AREA TUE. WE HAVE NOT
GONE THIS ROUTE PRESENTLY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z EC MODEL SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS. THE 12Z EC MODEL HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BY WPC DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE WWD AND
PAINTED SOME ACCUM SNOW ACROSS ERN NJ TUE. OUR TOTALS FOR THIS
PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY
ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WED
MOSTLY IN THE LOW 20S UP NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SRN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA. COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND TEENS SOUTH.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME
RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED. HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL. A CEILING MAINLY 4000-7000 FEET
SHOULD SLIDE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, THEN
SOME THINNING IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR. SOME MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
STAY WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
OVERALL /LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/.

SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL, WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME STRATOCUMULUS AROUND, WHICH COULD BECOME BROKEN IN
COVERAGE AT TIMES. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING NORTH OR
NORTHEAST AND DIMINISHING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW WHICH WILL ARRIVE AT MOST OF
TH TERMINALS BY DAWN MON.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR NORTH WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. STEADY SNOW ILG/PHL/PNE/MIV/ACY.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR INLAND BUT IFR/MVFR AT KACY/KMIV WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST. STRONG NE/N WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, AND
SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR DELAWARE BAY AND THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY, WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXTENDED UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION TO THE
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE,
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING. SCA CONDITIONS BY MON DAWN.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WITH FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 250230
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN MOVE UP ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD, THEN ANOTHER LOW MAY AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A DEEP SURFACE LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS HAS SHIFTED TO OUR EAST.

THE DRYING THAT OCCURRED ALLOWED THE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST
TO EAST, HOWEVER ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE ARRIVING FROM THE WEST
WHICH IS BEING TRAPPED UNDER AN INVERSION. AS A RESULT, THE CLOUDS
WERE INCREASED SOME FOR A TIME FROM WEST TO EAST. OTHER THAN A FEW
FLURRIES POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS, ANY SNOW SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE SHOULD
REMAIN TO THE WEST WHERE THE BETTER MOISTURE IS LOCATED ALONG WITH
SOME INCOMING WEAK WAA. THE WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW HAS INCREASED
SOME AND THIS WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE GROUND MOISTURE A BIT.
HOWEVER AS TEMPERATURES DROP TO AND BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT
COMBINED WITH A COLD GROUND, WILL LEAD TO UNTREATED WET SURFACES
REFREEZING.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
WHICH INCLUDED SHOWING A BIT HIGHER TEMPERATURES TO START. THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP WITH THE TEMPERATURE AND
DEW POINT TRENDS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES
ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
OVERALL, A RELATIVELY QUIET DAYTIME IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, WITH
SOME BRIEF, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH ON
THE HORIZON WILL BE A CLIPPER LOW TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. FOR MOST OF THE DAY, INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN IS ANTICIPATED GOING INTO THE
EVENING FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH THE APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET, THOUGH,
FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND
PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY WAS USED FOR DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES, AND
WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUN EVENING TO A POSITION
OFF THE COAST MON AFTERNOON. IT WILL BRING A 24 HR PERIOD OF MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SRN PA/NE MD AND DEL DURING THE PERIOD. A COUPLE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW COULD OCCUR...BUT SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES SRN PA/SRN NJ AND 2 TO 4 NE MD AND DEL WILL OCCUR. THE LOW
WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SO WINDS/BLOWING SNOW NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT MUCH OF AN ISSUE. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 20 NORTH AND
LOW/MID 30S OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. A BIT OF RAIN COULD MIX IN
WITH THE SNOW OVER SRN DEL ON MONDAY.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSHORE MON NIGHT
AND OTHER ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MEET IT CAUSING A
DEEP LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY CREATING GUSTY WINDS AND A SHIELD OF HEAVY QPF.
THIS HEAVY QPF (SNOW) WILL FALL ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SE NJ FOR A
TIME MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM...AND ANY TRACK FURTHER
WEST WOULD BRING EXCESSIVE SNOWS INTO THE NJ AREA TUE. WE HAVE NOT
GONE THIS ROUTE PRESENTLY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z EC MODEL SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS. THE 12Z EC MODEL HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BY WPC DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE WWD AND
PAINTED SOME ACCUM SNOW ACROSS ERN NJ TUE. OUR TOTALS FOR THIS
PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY
ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WED
MOSTLY IN THE LOW 20S UP NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SRN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA. COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND TEENS SOUTH.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME
RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED. HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR OVERALL. A CEILING MAINLY 4000-7000 FEET
SHOULD SLIDE EAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH LATE TONIGHT, THEN
SOME THINNING IS ANTICIPATED TO OCCUR. SOME MVFR CEILINGS SHOULD
STAY WEST OF KABE AND KRDG. WEST OR NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS
OVERALL /LOCAL GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 06Z/.

SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL, WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME STRATOCUMULUS AROUND, WHICH COULD BECOME BROKEN IN
COVERAGE AT TIMES. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON, THEN BECOMING NORTH OR
NORTHEAST AND DIMINISHING BY LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW WHICH WILL ARRIVE AT MOST OF
TH TERMINALS BY DAWN MON.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR NORTH WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. STEADY SNOW ILG/PHL/PNE/MIV/ACY.

TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR INLAND BUT IFR/MVFR AT KACY/KMIV WITH A STRONG
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST. STRONG NE/N WINDS.

TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, AND
SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR DELAWARE BAY AND THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY, WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXTENDED UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION TO THE
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE,
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING. SCA CONDITIONS BY MON DAWN.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...SCA CONDITIONS WITH FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 242326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN MOVE UP ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD, THEN ANOTHER LOW MAY AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW EAST OF CAPE COD EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
TRACK UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING TO OUR EAST.
THIS IS TAKING THE REMAINING SHOWERS OFF THE COAST WITH IT. THEREFORE,
IT APPEARS THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY.

THE DRYING IS OCCURRING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
ERODE. THERE IS MORE CLOUDINESS TO OUR WEST WHICH IS BEING TRAPPED
UNDER AN INVERSION, HOWEVER THIS MAY MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT THERE. SOME OF IT MAY
EXPAND INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES THOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH MAYBE A
FEW FLURRIES IN THE POCONOS. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED SOME AND
THIS WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE GROUND MOISTURE A BIT. HOWEVER, AS
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT ANY UNTREATED WET
SURFACES WILL REFREEZE.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
WHICH INCLUDED SOME HIGHER TEMPERATURES TO START. THE LAMP/LAV
GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP WITH THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
TRENDS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
OVERALL, A RELATIVELY QUIET DAYTIME IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, WITH
SOME BRIEF, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH ON
THE HORIZON WILL BE A CLIPPER LOW TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. FOR MOST OF THE DAY, INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN IS ANTICIPATED GOING INTO THE
EVENING FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH THE APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET, THOUGH,
FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND
PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY WAS USED FOR DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES, AND
WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUN EVENING TO A POSITION
OFF THE COAST MON AFTERNOON. IT WILL BRING A 24 HR PERIOD OF MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SRN PA/NE MD AND DEL DURING THE PERIOD. A COUPLE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW COULD OCCUR...BUT SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES SRN PA/SRN NJ AND 2 TO 4 NE MD AND DEL WILL OCCUR. THE LOW
WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SO WINDS/BLOWING SNOW NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT MUCH OF AN ISSUE. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 20 NORTH AND
LOW/MID 30S OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. A BIT OF RAIN COULD MIX IN
WITH THE SNOW OVER SRN DEL ON MONDAY.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSHORE MON NIGHT
AND OTHER ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MEET IT CAUSING A
DEEP LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY CREATING GUSTY WINDS AND A SHIELD OF HEAVY QPF.
THIS HEAVY QPF (SNOW) WILL FALL ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SE NJ FOR A
TIME MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM...AND ANY TRACK FURTHER
WEST WOULD BRING EXCESSIVE SNOWS INTO THE NJ AREA TUE. WE HAVE NOT
GONE THIS ROUTE PRESENTLY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z EC MODEL SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS. THE 12Z EC MODEL HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BY WPC DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE WWD AND
PAINTED SOME ACCUM SNOW ACROSS ERN NJ TUE. OUR TOTALS FOR THIS
PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY
ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WED
MOSTLY IN THE LOW 20S UP NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SRN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA. COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND TEENS SOUTH.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME
RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED. HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...SOME MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING FOR A TIME THIS EVENING,
MAINLY AT KABE TO NEAR KRDG OTHERWISE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15
KNOTS OVERALL /LOCAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES/, THEN TURNING WESTERLY.

SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL, WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME STRATOCUMULUS AROUND, WHICH COULD BECOME BROKEN IN
COVERAGE AT TIMES. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTH OR NORTHEAST AND DIMINISHING
LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW WHICH WILL ARRIVE AT MOST OF
TH TERMINALS BY DAWN MON.
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR NORTH WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. STEADY SNOW ILG/PHL/PNE/MIV/ACY.
TUE...MOSTLY VFR INLAND BUT IFR/MVFR AT KACY/KMIV WITH A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST. STRONG NE/N WINDS
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, AND
SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR DELAWARE BAY AND THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY, WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXTENDED UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION TO THE
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE,
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING. SCA CONDITIONS BY MON DAWN.
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS.
TUE THRU THU...SCA CONDITIONS WITH FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO





000
FXUS61 KPHI 242326
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
626 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL TRACK INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL THEN MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE EAST COAST MONDAY, THEN MOVE UP ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD, THEN ANOTHER LOW MAY AFFECT THE REGION ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW EAST OF CAPE COD EARLY THIS EVENING WILL
TRACK UP INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THE MAIN TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING TO OUR EAST.
THIS IS TAKING THE REMAINING SHOWERS OFF THE COAST WITH IT. THEREFORE,
IT APPEARS THE NIGHT WILL BE DRY.

THE DRYING IS OCCURRING FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO
ERODE. THERE IS MORE CLOUDINESS TO OUR WEST WHICH IS BEING TRAPPED
UNDER AN INVERSION, HOWEVER THIS MAY MOSTLY BE CONFINED TO WEST OF
THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME UPSLOPE ENHANCEMENT THERE. SOME OF IT MAY
EXPAND INTO OUR WESTERN ZONES THOUGH THROUGH THE NIGHT, WITH MAYBE A
FEW FLURRIES IN THE POCONOS. THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW HAS INCREASED SOME AND
THIS WILL HELP TO DRY OUT THE GROUND MOISTURE A BIT. HOWEVER, AS
TEMPERATURES DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT ANY UNTREATED WET
SURFACES WILL REFREEZE.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS,
WHICH INCLUDED SOME HIGHER TEMPERATURES TO START. THE LAMP/LAV
GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN TO HELP WITH THE TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT
TRENDS. NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
OVERALL, A RELATIVELY QUIET DAYTIME IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, WITH
SOME BRIEF, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH ON
THE HORIZON WILL BE A CLIPPER LOW TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. FOR MOST OF THE DAY, INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN IS ANTICIPATED GOING INTO THE
EVENING FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH THE APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET, THOUGH,
FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND
PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY WAS USED FOR DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES, AND
WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUN EVENING TO A POSITION
OFF THE COAST MON AFTERNOON. IT WILL BRING A 24 HR PERIOD OF MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SRN PA/NE MD AND DEL DURING THE PERIOD. A COUPLE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW COULD OCCUR...BUT SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES SRN PA/SRN NJ AND 2 TO 4 NE MD AND DEL WILL OCCUR. THE LOW
WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SO WINDS/BLOWING SNOW NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT MUCH OF AN ISSUE. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 20 NORTH AND
LOW/MID 30S OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. A BIT OF RAIN COULD MIX IN
WITH THE SNOW OVER SRN DEL ON MONDAY.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSHORE MON NIGHT
AND OTHER ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MEET IT CAUSING A
DEEP LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY CREATING GUSTY WINDS AND A SHIELD OF HEAVY QPF.
THIS HEAVY QPF (SNOW) WILL FALL ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SE NJ FOR A
TIME MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM...AND ANY TRACK FURTHER
WEST WOULD BRING EXCESSIVE SNOWS INTO THE NJ AREA TUE. WE HAVE NOT
GONE THIS ROUTE PRESENTLY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z EC MODEL SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS. THE 12Z EC MODEL HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BY WPC DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE WWD AND
PAINTED SOME ACCUM SNOW ACROSS ERN NJ TUE. OUR TOTALS FOR THIS
PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY
ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WED
MOSTLY IN THE LOW 20S UP NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SRN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA. COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND TEENS SOUTH.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME
RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED. HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...SOME MVFR CEILINGS LINGERING FOR A TIME THIS EVENING,
MAINLY AT KABE TO NEAR KRDG OTHERWISE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15
KNOTS OVERALL /LOCAL GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES/, THEN TURNING WESTERLY.

SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL, WITH AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS. THERE
SHOULD BE SOME STRATOCUMULUS AROUND, WHICH COULD BECOME BROKEN IN
COVERAGE AT TIMES. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS WITH SOME LOCAL
GUSTS UP TO 20 KNOTS, BECOMING NORTH OR NORTHEAST AND DIMINISHING
LATE IN THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW WHICH WILL ARRIVE AT MOST OF
TH TERMINALS BY DAWN MON.
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR NORTH WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. STEADY SNOW ILG/PHL/PNE/MIV/ACY.
TUE...MOSTLY VFR INLAND BUT IFR/MVFR AT KACY/KMIV WITH A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST. STRONG NE/N WINDS
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, AND
SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR DELAWARE BAY AND THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY, WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXTENDED UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION TO THE
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE,
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING. SCA CONDITIONS BY MON DAWN.
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS.
TUE THRU THU...SCA CONDITIONS WITH FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 242040
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY OVERNIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE EAST COAST
MONDAY AND MOVE UP ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. ANOTHER LOW
MAY AFFECT THE REGION NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT LATE DAY, STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED EAST AND
OFFSHORE OF LONG ISLAND, WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PRESENT JUST OFF TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
WANING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE STRONG SURFACE LOW
CONTINUING TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, UNTIL THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY PASSES EAST AND OFFSHORE. LITTLE OR NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE
RUNNING IN THE MIDDLE 30S THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE, SOME
AREAS NEAR THE COAST MAY SEE ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP AS MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN, DEPENDING ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.

FOR LATER TONIGHT, PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED, WITH A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BRINGING SOME DRIER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION, WITH DEW-POINTS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE MOST PART, WE USED A MET/MAV GUIDANCE
BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, BUT WE DID UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE A LITTLE IN AREAS OF FRESH SNOWPACK. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE MAINLY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO
THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
OVERALL, A RELATIVELY QUIET DAYTIME IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, WITH
SOME BRIEF, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH ON
THE HORIZON WILL BE A CLIPPER LOW TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. FOR MOST OF THE DAY, INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN IS ANTICIPATED GOING INTO THE
EVENING FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH THE APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET, THOUGH,
FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND
PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY WAS USED FOR DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES, AND
WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUN EVENING TO A POSITION
OFF THE COAST MON AFTERNOON. IT WILL BRING A 24 HR PERIOD OF MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SRN PA/NE MD AND DEL DURING THE PERIOD. A COUPLE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW COULD OCCUR...BUT SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES SRN PA/SRN NJ AND 2 TO 4 NE MD AND DEL WILL OCCUR. THE LOW
WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SO WINDS/BLOWING SNOW NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT MUCH OF AN ISSUE. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 20 NORTH AND
LOW/MID 30S OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. A BIT OF RAIN COULD MIX IN
WITH THE SNOW OVER SRN DEL ON MONDAY.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSHORE MON NIGHT
AND OTHER ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MEET IT CAUSING A
DEEP LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY CREATING GUSTY WINDS AND A SHIELD OF HEAVY QPF.
THIS HEAVY QPF (SNOW) WILL FALL ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SE NJ FOR A
TIME MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM...AND ANY TRACK FURTHER
WEST WOULD BRING EXCESSIVE SNOWS INTO THE NJ AREA TUE. WE HAVE NOT
GONE THIS ROUTE PRESENTLY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z EC MODEL SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS. THE 12Z EC MODEL HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BY WPC DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE WWD AND
PAINTED SOME ACCUM SNOW ACROSS ERN NJ TUE. OUR TOTALS FOR THIS
PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY
ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WED
MOSTLY IN THE LOW 20S UP NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SRN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA. COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND TEENS SOUTH.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME
RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED. HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE, ALLOWING THE
REMAINING IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO RISE TO VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR REGION AND IT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT AS DRYING
IS ALSO ARRIVING FROM THE WEST, BUT MAY BE A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN. IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH VISIBILITY VALUES CAN BE REDUCED TO AROUND 2 MILES
AT TIMES.

WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 0000Z UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WE HAVE INDICATED A CEILING AROUND 4000 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WE MAY BE A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC AS
THE CLOUDS COULD FAVOR SCATTERED FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE TIME.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND
20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 6 TO 10
KNOTS RANGE INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW WHICH WILL ARRIVE AT MOST OF
TH TERMINALS BY DAWN MON.
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR NORTH WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. STEADY SNOW ILG/PHL/PNE/MIV/ACY.
TUE...MOSTLY VFR INLAND BUT IFR/MVFR AT KACY/KMIV WITH A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST. STRONG NE/N WINDS
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, AND
SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR DELAWARE BAY AND THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY, WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXTENDED UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION TO THE
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE,
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING. SCA CONDITIONS BY MON DAWN.
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS.
TUE THRU THU...SCA CONDITIONS WITH FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO






000
FXUS61 KPHI 242040
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
340 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE EAST OF CAPE COD THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE AWAY OVERNIGHT. A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE AREA LATER TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGIONS SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW WILL FORM OFF THE EAST COAST
MONDAY AND MOVE UP ALONG THE OFFSHORE WATERS MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. ANOTHER LOW
MAY AFFECT THE REGION NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT LATE DAY, STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED EAST AND
OFFSHORE OF LONG ISLAND, WITH A MID-LEVEL TROUGH PRESENT JUST OFF TO
THE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. OVERALL, FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
WANING MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION WITH THE STRONG SURFACE LOW
CONTINUING TO PULL AWAY FROM THE REGION, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH
MOISTURE FOR SOME ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW/RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING, UNTIL THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED VORTICITY PASSES EAST AND OFFSHORE. LITTLE OR NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED AS TEMPERATURES WILL MOSTLY BE
RUNNING IN THE MIDDLE 30S THROUGH EARLY EVENING. MEANWHILE, SOME
AREAS NEAR THE COAST MAY SEE ANY ADDITIONAL LIGHT PRECIP AS MAINLY
LIGHT RAIN, DEPENDING ON BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES.

FOR LATER TONIGHT, PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED, WITH A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT, BRINGING SOME DRIER
AIR ACROSS THE REGION, WITH DEW-POINTS DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S FOR
THE FORECAST AREA. FOR THE MOST PART, WE USED A MET/MAV GUIDANCE
BLEND FOR OVERNIGHT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, BUT WE DID UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE A LITTLE IN AREAS OF FRESH SNOWPACK. MINIMUM TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED TO RANGE MAINLY FROM THE LOWER 20S IN THE POCONOS TO
THE LOWER 30S IN THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
OVERALL, A RELATIVELY QUIET DAYTIME IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY, WITH
SOME BRIEF, WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA. THE MAIN FEATURE TO WATCH ON
THE HORIZON WILL BE A CLIPPER LOW TRACKING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BY
LATE IN THE DAY. FOR MOST OF THE DAY, INCREASING CLOUDINESS WITH
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED, BUT SOME LIGHT PRECIP
MAINLY IN THE FORM OF LIGHT SNOW/RAIN IS ANTICIPATED GOING INTO THE
EVENING FOR OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES WITH THE APPROACHING
CLIPPER SYSTEM. MAINLY LIGHT RAIN IS EXPECTED AT THE ONSET, THOUGH,
FOR THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA BEFORE TEMPERATURES FALL AND
PRECIP INTENSITY INCREASES LATER SUNDAY NIGHT. A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY WAS USED FOR DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES, AND
WE ANTICIPATE HIGHS FOR MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA TO RANGE FROM THE
MIDDLE 30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SUN NIGHT THRU MONDAY...A CLIPPER SYSTEM WITH A DECENT AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE WILL MOVE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY SUN EVENING TO A POSITION
OFF THE COAST MON AFTERNOON. IT WILL BRING A 24 HR PERIOD OF MOSTLY
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS SRN PA/NE MD AND DEL DURING THE PERIOD. A COUPLE
PERIODS OF MODERATE SNOW COULD OCCUR...BUT SNOW TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES SRN PA/SRN NJ AND 2 TO 4 NE MD AND DEL WILL OCCUR. THE LOW
WILL NOT BE THAT STRONG...SO WINDS/BLOWING SNOW NOT EXPECTED TO BE
THAT MUCH OF AN ISSUE. TEMPS BELOW NORMAL WITH HIGHS 20 NORTH AND
LOW/MID 30S OVER THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. A BIT OF RAIN COULD MIX IN
WITH THE SNOW OVER SRN DEL ON MONDAY.

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...THE CLIPPER SYSTEM WILL BE OFFSHORE MON NIGHT
AND OTHER ENERGY AT THE BASE OF THE TROUGH WILL MEET IT CAUSING A
DEEP LOW TO DEVELOP OFF THE DELMARVA AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS SYSTEM
WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY CREATING GUSTY WINDS AND A SHIELD OF HEAVY QPF.
THIS HEAVY QPF (SNOW) WILL FALL ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SE NJ FOR A
TIME MON NIGHT BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE. THE OPERATIONAL MODELS HAVE
SOME DEGREE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE SYSTEM...AND ANY TRACK FURTHER
WEST WOULD BRING EXCESSIVE SNOWS INTO THE NJ AREA TUE. WE HAVE NOT
GONE THIS ROUTE PRESENTLY...ALTHOUGH THE 12Z EC MODEL SEEMS TO
SUGGEST THIS. THE 12Z EC MODEL HAS BEEN DISCOUNTED BY WPC DUE TO
CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES.  WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE WWD AND
PAINTED SOME ACCUM SNOW ACROSS ERN NJ TUE. OUR TOTALS FOR THIS
PERIOD ARE LIKELY TO CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW FCST CYCLES...SO PAY
ATTENTION TO THE DETAILS IN FUTURE FCSTS.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED NIGHT... HIGH PRESSURE WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER
DURING THIS PERIOD WITH FAIR BUT COLD WEATHER EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE AVERAGING AROUND 10 TO 12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS WED
MOSTLY IN THE LOW 20S UP NORTH AND MID TO UPPER 20S OVER THE SRN
2/3RDS OF THE AREA. COLD OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH
AND TEENS SOUTH.

THU INTO FRI...MODELS ARE SHOWING ANOTHER CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AFTER THE MID WEEK PERIOD. TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE BEGUN TO MODERATE BY THE TIME THE PRECIP ARRIVES...SO SOME
RAIN/SNOW LINE ISSUES WILL OCCUR. MOSTLY USED CHC POPS FOR NOW.
TEMPS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL...BUT NOT AS COLD AS WED. HIGHS IN
THE MID/UPPER 30S SOUTH AND LOW 30S NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE, ALLOWING THE
REMAINING IFR/MVFR CEILINGS TO RISE TO VFR THROUGH EARLY THIS
EVENING. A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR REGION AND IT SHOULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE SHOWERS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT AS DRYING
IS ALSO ARRIVING FROM THE WEST, BUT MAY BE A MIX OF SNOW/RAIN. IT
APPEARS AS THOUGH VISIBILITY VALUES CAN BE REDUCED TO AROUND 2 MILES
AT TIMES.

WE EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 0000Z UNTIL THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. WE HAVE INDICATED A CEILING AROUND 4000 FEET THROUGH MUCH OF
THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WE MAY BE A LITTLE PESSIMISTIC AS
THE CLOUDS COULD FAVOR SCATTERED FOR AT LEAST PART OF THE TIME.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND
20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 6 TO 10
KNOTS RANGE INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW WHICH WILL ARRIVE AT MOST OF
TH TERMINALS BY DAWN MON.
MON AND MON NIGHT...IFR/LIFR SOUTH AND MVFR NORTH WITH A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CROSSING THE AREA. STEADY SNOW ILG/PHL/PNE/MIV/ACY.
TUE...MOSTLY VFR INLAND BUT IFR/MVFR AT KACY/KMIV WITH A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING UP THE COAST. STRONG NE/N WINDS
TUE NIGHT THRU WED...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, AND
SOME GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT FOR DELAWARE BAY AND THROUGH AROUND MIDDAY SUNDAY FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS. AS A RESULT, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH 11Z SUNDAY, WITH THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
EXTENDED UNTIL 18Z SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. IN ADDITION TO THE
WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS PERIOD, SEAS WILL ALSO REMAIN ELEVATED,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 8 FOOT RANGE,
BEFORE GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING. SCA CONDITIONS BY MON DAWN.
MON AND MON NIGHT...MOSTLY GALE CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS.
TUE THRU THU...SCA CONDITIONS WITH FREEZING SPRAY EXPECTED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
ANOTHER NORTHEASTER IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE COASTAL WATERS OF
DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MINOR TIDAL
FLOODING MAY OCCUR AROUND THE TIMES OF HIGH TIDE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...KLINE/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO







000
FXUS61 KPHI 241805
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
105 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY TODAY WILL RACE PAST CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOW
PRESSURE IN KENTUCKY SUNDAY EVENING. IT MOVES TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY THEN INTENSIFIES ALONG ITS TRACK EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
ON TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE, COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS
AS HIGH PRESSURE HEADS FOR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. A REINFORCING
SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE, WE HAVE ALLOWED THE REMAINING
WINTER STORM WARNING THAT WAS COVERING PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO EXPIRE. WHILE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
STILL OFF TO THE WEST, LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE, WE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR ANY REMAINING MOISTURE TO TURN
BACK OVER TO SNOW. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING, MID-30S ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES IN FROM
THE WEST, ALBEIT BRIEFLY. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH BRISK WESTERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-20S...SLIGHTLY COLDER IN FRESH PACK AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES ON TUESDAY BEFORE RIDGING FOLLOWS
THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY SEEMS
TO WANT TO YANK THE POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  A BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 MAV/MET FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.
THE 00Z/24 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER HEADING ESE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN OVER NRN DELMARVA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE PRECIP RATE INCREASES AND
SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINS TO
DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD
OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...ALTO OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH
THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS STORM TO DEEPEN CLOSER TO THE COAST
ON MONDAY. THIS CERTAINLY PORTENDS TO BECOME AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
SITUATION FOR THE DELMARVA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT POWDERY AMOUNTS OF SNOW. SNOW WATER
RATIOS SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT....IN
OTHER WORDS FLUFFIER.

A POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS IN THE OFFING FOR
A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25
MPH MAY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE DELMARVA...ESPECIALLY
THE DELAWARE COAST.

WIND CHILLS WILL BE NOTICED!

TIDAL SURGE: FAIRLY LARGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SHORES.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
FOR MID WEEK ON CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  .

THURSDAY...WAA CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...THIS ONE IN CANADA WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE CFP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN OUR REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR REGION AND IT SHOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO BE
ALL SNOW AT KRDG, KABE AND KTTN AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT OUR
REMAINING TAF SITES. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH VISIBILITY VALUES WILL BE
REDUCED TO AROUND 1 MILE AT TIMES. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

DRYING WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES FARTHER OFF THE COAST.
WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MVFR TO VFR BETWEEN ABOUT
2200Z AND 0100Z.

WE EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 0100Z UNTIL THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WE HAVE INDICATED A CEILING AROUND 4000 FEET THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WE MAY BE A LITTLE
PESSIMISTIC AS THE CLOUDS COULD FAVOR SCATTERED FOR AT LEAST PART OF
THE TIME.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND
20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 6 TO 10
KNOTS RANGE INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING....ESPECIALLY KTTN SOUTHWARD. CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY KILG AND
KMIV.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MON NIGHT - CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY VFR LATE.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE THE DEVELOPING STORM MAY FORCE SNOW TO
LINGER ALONG THE COAST.

TUE - WED...MOSTLY VFR.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS TODAY AND RACES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL GALES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DELAWARE COAST. SEAS COULD EASILY BUILD TO
12 FEET EAST OF CAPE MAY TO EAST OF DELAWARE IN PERSISTENT NNE FLOW.
LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLINE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 241805
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
105 PM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY TODAY WILL RACE PAST CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOW
PRESSURE IN KENTUCKY SUNDAY EVENING. IT MOVES TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY THEN INTENSIFIES ALONG ITS TRACK EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
ON TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE, COLDER AIR IS EXPECTED FOR SEVERAL DAYS
AS HIGH PRESSURE HEADS FOR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. A REINFORCING
SURGE OF COLD AIR ARRIVES AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE EARLY AFTERNOON UPDATE, WE HAVE ALLOWED THE REMAINING
WINTER STORM WARNING THAT WAS COVERING PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NEW
JERSEY AND EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO EXPIRE. WHILE SOME SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH
STILL OFF TO THE WEST, LITTLE IF ANY ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION IS
EXPECTED.

OTHERWISE, WE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR ANY REMAINING MOISTURE TO TURN
BACK OVER TO SNOW. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AS BOUNDARY LAYER
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING, MID-30S ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES IN FROM
THE WEST, ALBEIT BRIEFLY. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH BRISK WESTERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-20S...SLIGHTLY COLDER IN FRESH PACK AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES ON TUESDAY BEFORE RIDGING FOLLOWS
THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY SEEMS
TO WANT TO YANK THE POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  A BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 MAV/MET FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.
THE 00Z/24 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER HEADING ESE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN OVER NRN DELMARVA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE PRECIP RATE INCREASES AND
SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINS TO
DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD
OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...ALTO OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH
THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS STORM TO DEEPEN CLOSER TO THE COAST
ON MONDAY. THIS CERTAINLY PORTENDS TO BECOME AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
SITUATION FOR THE DELMARVA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT POWDERY AMOUNTS OF SNOW. SNOW WATER
RATIOS SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT....IN
OTHER WORDS FLUFFIER.

A POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS IN THE OFFING FOR
A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25
MPH MAY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE DELMARVA...ESPECIALLY
THE DELAWARE COAST.

WIND CHILLS WILL BE NOTICED!

TIDAL SURGE: FAIRLY LARGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SHORES.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
FOR MID WEEK ON CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  .

THURSDAY...WAA CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...THIS ONE IN CANADA WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE CFP.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN OUR REGION THROUGH THE BALANCE OF
THE AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO
PASS FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS OUR REGION AND IT SHOULD BE
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. THE SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO BE
ALL SNOW AT KRDG, KABE AND KTTN AND A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW AT OUR
REMAINING TAF SITES. IT APPEARS AS THOUGH VISIBILITY VALUES WILL BE
REDUCED TO AROUND 1 MILE AT TIMES. LITTLE OR NO ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED.

DRYING WILL BEGIN TO WORK ITS WAY INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES FARTHER OFF THE COAST.
WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN IMPROVEMENT THROUGH MVFR TO VFR BETWEEN ABOUT
2200Z AND 0100Z.

WE EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT 0100Z UNTIL THE END OF
THE TAF PERIOD. WE HAVE INDICATED A CEILING AROUND 4000 FEET THROUGH
MUCH OF THE NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WE MAY BE A LITTLE
PESSIMISTIC AS THE CLOUDS COULD FAVOR SCATTERED FOR AT LEAST PART OF
THE TIME.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED TO GUST TO AROUND
20 KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT AND WIND SPEEDS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 6 TO 10
KNOTS RANGE INTO SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING....ESPECIALLY KTTN SOUTHWARD. CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY KILG AND
KMIV.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MON NIGHT - CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY VFR LATE.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE THE DEVELOPING STORM MAY FORCE SNOW TO
LINGER ALONG THE COAST.

TUE - WED...MOSTLY VFR.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS TODAY AND RACES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL GALES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DELAWARE COAST. SEAS COULD EASILY BUILD TO
12 FEET EAST OF CAPE MAY TO EAST OF DELAWARE IN PERSISTENT NNE FLOW.
LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLINE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KPHI 241455
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
955 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY TODAY WILL RACE PAST CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOW
PRESSURE IN KENTUCKY SUNDAY EVENING. IT MOVES TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY THEN INTENSIFIES ALONG ITS TRACK EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
ON TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AIR FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
HEADS FOR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR
ARRIVES AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE MID MORNING UPDATE, WE HAVE EXTENDED THE CURRENT WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST NEW JERSEY AND EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHL THROUGH 1PM THIS
AFTERNOON. WHILE THE STEADIER AND HEAVIER PRECIP WITH THIS SYSTEM
HAS PASSED EAST AND OFFSHORE, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE MOSTLY SOME
LIGHT SNOW FOR THESE AREAS, WITH THE POSSIBILITY FOR ISOLATED
SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MIXING IN, MAINLY TO THE SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 80. WITH THE CONTINUED LIGHT PRECIP, THERE WILL LIKELY
STILL BE SOME IMPACT TO TRAVEL, AT LEAST UNTIL THE ROADS ARE
COMPLETELY CLEARED. THE EXTENSION OF THIS WARNING ALSO MATCHES
SIMILAR HEADLINE PRODUCTS FROM OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

ELSEWHERE FOR THE FORECAST AREA, THE RAIN/SNOW LINE APPEARS TO BE
SETTING UP JUST TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR, AND
ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE NEEDED TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. FARTHER SOUTH, WE HAVE KEPT HIGHER POPS IN PLACE FOR RAIN FOR
FAR SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND NJ, AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE A GOOD FLOW
OF MOISTURE ALONG THE COAST AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ORGANIZES
JUST OFFSHORE. THIS IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH RAP AND HRRR
DATA.

OTHERWISE, WE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD
AND CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. THE COLUMN ALOFT DRIES OUT/WARMS UP TO
THE POINT WE LOSE OUR ICE CRYSTALS. MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES
MAY MAKE FOR SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH IT SHOULD BE VERY
ISOLATED. COLD AIR WILL FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW
PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR ANY REMAINING MOISTURE TO TURN BACK OVER TO
SNOW. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AS BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING, MID-30S ACROSS OUR EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES IN FROM
THE WEST, ALBEIT BRIEFLY. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH BRISK WESTERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-20S...SLIGHTLY COLDER IN FRESH PACK AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES ON TUESDAY BEFORE RIDGING FOLLOWS
THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY SEEMS
TO WANT TO YANK THE POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  A BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 MAV/MET FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.
THE 00Z/24 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER HEADING ESE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN OVER NRN DELMARVA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE PRECIP RATE INCREASES AND
SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINS TO
DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD
OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...ALTO OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH
THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS STORM TO DEEPEN CLOSER TO THE COAST
ON MONDAY. THIS CERTAINLY PORTENDS TO BECOME AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
SITUATION FOR THE DELMARVA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT POWDERY AMOUNTS OF SNOW. SNOW WATER
RATIOS SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT....IN
OTHER WORDS FLUFFIER.

A POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS IN THE OFFING FOR
A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25
MPH MAY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE DELMARVA...ESPECIALLY
THE DELAWARE COAST.

WIND CHILLS WILL BE NOTICED!

TIDAL SURGE: FAIRLY LARGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SHORES.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
FOR MID WEEK ON CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  .

THURSDAY...WAA CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...THIS ONE IN CANADA WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE CFP.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...IFR/LIFR, POSSIBLE VLIFR, IN AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY WET SNOW. TTN-ABE-RDG SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE POSSIBLY DRYING OUT SOME AS WE NEAR MID-DAY.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SOME DRYING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...VFR. BRISK WNW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING....ESPECIALLY KTTN SOUTHWARD.  CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY KILG AND
KMIV.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MON NIGHT - CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY VFR LATE.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE THE DEVELOPING STORM MAY FORCE SNOW TO
LINGER ALONG THE COAST.

TUE - WED...MOSTLY VFR.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS TODAY AND RACES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL GALES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DELAWARE COAST. SEAS COULD EASILY BUILD TO
12 FEET EAST OF CAPE MAY TO EAST OF DELAWARE IN PERSISTENT NNE FLOW.
LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-103-105.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLINE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER






000
FXUS61 KPHI 241303
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
803 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY TODAY WILL RACE PAST CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOW
PRESSURE IN KENTUCKY SUNDAY EVENING. IT MOVES TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY THEN INTENSIFIES ALONG ITS TRACK EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
ON TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AIR FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
HEADS FOR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR
ARRIVES AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE UPDATE THIS MORNING, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COVERING
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 13Z. WHILE A FEW LOCALES REMAIN
CLOSE TO FREEZING, MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S,
AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. IN ADDITION, THE BULK OF
THE STEADIER, HEAVIER PRECIP HAS EXITED THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST,
AND ONLY SOME LIGHTER RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE, THE WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF PHILLY...THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE WARM/ISENTROPIC LIFT FRONT END THUMP THIS MORNING WAS HANDLED
PRETTY WELL BY ALL THE GUIDANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. THERMALLY
THE NAM SEEMED TO HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE MELTING LAYER
MOVEMENT, OR LACK THEREOF THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING IT SEEMS
THAT THE MELTING LAYER IS SITTING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
TTN WESTWARD TO PTW. DECENT SNOWRATES ARE STILL OCCURRING NORTH OF
THIS LINE AS A BIT MORE QPF WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATE LAST
NIGHT. THE OMEGA RATES WITHIN THE DGZ WERE VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHWARD.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF CLOSE TO 5 INCHES WERE REPORTED DURING THE PEAK
INTENSITY OF THE MESO BANDS THAT SETUP IN SEPA AND NNJ. WE ALREADY
HAD A 4-6" SWATH RUNNING THROUGH THESE AREAS BUT FELT THAT AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO WOULD BE VERY POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE WE WENT
TO WARNINGS. WITH THE HEAVY WET SNOW, SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN. THE COLUMN ALOFT DRIES OUT/WARMS UP TO THE POINT WE LOSE OUR
ICE CRYSTALS. MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH IT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. COLD AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR ANY
REMAINING MOISTURE TO TURN BACK OVER TO SNOW. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING, MID-30S ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES IN FROM
THE WEST, ALBEIT BRIEFLY. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH BRISK WESTERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-20S...SLIGHTLY COLDER IN FRESH PACK AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES ON TUESDAY BEFORE RIDGING FOLLOWS
THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY SEEMS
TO WANT TO YANK THE POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  A BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 MAV/MET FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.
THE 00Z/24 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER HEADING ESE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN OVER NRN DELMARVA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE PRECIP RATE INCREASES AND
SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINS TO
DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD
OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...ALTO OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH
THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS STORM TO DEEPEN CLOSER TO THE COAST
ON MONDAY. THIS CERTAINLY PORTENDS TO BECOME AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
SITUATION FOR THE DELMARVA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT POWDERY AMOUNTS OF SNOW. SNOW WATER
RATIOS SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT....IN
OTHER WORDS FLUFFIER.

A POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS IN THE OFFING FOR
A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25
MPH MAY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE DELMARVA...ESPECIALLY
THE DELAWARE COAST.

WIND CHILLS WILL BE NOTICED!

TIDAL SURGE: FAIRLY LARGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SHORES.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
FOR MID WEEK ON CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  .

THURSDAY...WAA CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...THIS ONE IN CANADA WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE CFP.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...IFR/LIFR, POSSIBLE VLIFR, IN AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY WET SNOW. TTN-ABE-RDG SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE POSSIBLY DRYING OUT SOME AS WE NEAR MID-DAY.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SOME DRYING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...VFR. BRISK WNW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING....ESPECIALLY KTTN SOUTHWARD.  CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY KILG AND
KMIV.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MON NIGHT - CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY VFR LATE.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE THE DEVELOPING STORM MAY FORCE SNOW TO
LINGER ALONG THE COAST.

TUE - WED...MOSTLY VFR.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS TODAY AND RACES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL GALES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DELAWARE COAST. SEAS COULD EASILY BUILD TO
12 FEET EAST OF CAPE MAY TO EAST OF DELAWARE IN PERSISTENT NNE FLOW.
LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-103-105.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLINE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 241303
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
803 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY TODAY WILL RACE PAST CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOW
PRESSURE IN KENTUCKY SUNDAY EVENING. IT MOVES TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY THEN INTENSIFIES ALONG ITS TRACK EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
ON TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AIR FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
HEADS FOR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR
ARRIVES AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE UPDATE THIS MORNING, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COVERING
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 13Z. WHILE A FEW LOCALES REMAIN
CLOSE TO FREEZING, MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S,
AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. IN ADDITION, THE BULK OF
THE STEADIER, HEAVIER PRECIP HAS EXITED THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST,
AND ONLY SOME LIGHTER RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE, THE WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF PHILLY...THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE WARM/ISENTROPIC LIFT FRONT END THUMP THIS MORNING WAS HANDLED
PRETTY WELL BY ALL THE GUIDANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. THERMALLY
THE NAM SEEMED TO HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE MELTING LAYER
MOVEMENT, OR LACK THEREOF THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING IT SEEMS
THAT THE MELTING LAYER IS SITTING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
TTN WESTWARD TO PTW. DECENT SNOWRATES ARE STILL OCCURRING NORTH OF
THIS LINE AS A BIT MORE QPF WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATE LAST
NIGHT. THE OMEGA RATES WITHIN THE DGZ WERE VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHWARD.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF CLOSE TO 5 INCHES WERE REPORTED DURING THE PEAK
INTENSITY OF THE MESO BANDS THAT SETUP IN SEPA AND NNJ. WE ALREADY
HAD A 4-6" SWATH RUNNING THROUGH THESE AREAS BUT FELT THAT AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO WOULD BE VERY POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE WE WENT
TO WARNINGS. WITH THE HEAVY WET SNOW, SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN. THE COLUMN ALOFT DRIES OUT/WARMS UP TO THE POINT WE LOSE OUR
ICE CRYSTALS. MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH IT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. COLD AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR ANY
REMAINING MOISTURE TO TURN BACK OVER TO SNOW. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING, MID-30S ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES IN FROM
THE WEST, ALBEIT BRIEFLY. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH BRISK WESTERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-20S...SLIGHTLY COLDER IN FRESH PACK AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES ON TUESDAY BEFORE RIDGING FOLLOWS
THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY SEEMS
TO WANT TO YANK THE POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  A BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 MAV/MET FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.
THE 00Z/24 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER HEADING ESE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN OVER NRN DELMARVA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE PRECIP RATE INCREASES AND
SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINS TO
DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD
OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...ALTO OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH
THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS STORM TO DEEPEN CLOSER TO THE COAST
ON MONDAY. THIS CERTAINLY PORTENDS TO BECOME AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
SITUATION FOR THE DELMARVA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT POWDERY AMOUNTS OF SNOW. SNOW WATER
RATIOS SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT....IN
OTHER WORDS FLUFFIER.

A POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS IN THE OFFING FOR
A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25
MPH MAY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE DELMARVA...ESPECIALLY
THE DELAWARE COAST.

WIND CHILLS WILL BE NOTICED!

TIDAL SURGE: FAIRLY LARGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SHORES.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
FOR MID WEEK ON CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  .

THURSDAY...WAA CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...THIS ONE IN CANADA WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE CFP.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...IFR/LIFR, POSSIBLE VLIFR, IN AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY WET SNOW. TTN-ABE-RDG SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE POSSIBLY DRYING OUT SOME AS WE NEAR MID-DAY.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SOME DRYING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...VFR. BRISK WNW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING....ESPECIALLY KTTN SOUTHWARD.  CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY KILG AND
KMIV.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MON NIGHT - CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY VFR LATE.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE THE DEVELOPING STORM MAY FORCE SNOW TO
LINGER ALONG THE COAST.

TUE - WED...MOSTLY VFR.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS TODAY AND RACES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL GALES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DELAWARE COAST. SEAS COULD EASILY BUILD TO
12 FEET EAST OF CAPE MAY TO EAST OF DELAWARE IN PERSISTENT NNE FLOW.
LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-103-105.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLINE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 241303
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
803 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY TODAY WILL RACE PAST CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOW
PRESSURE IN KENTUCKY SUNDAY EVENING. IT MOVES TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY THEN INTENSIFIES ALONG ITS TRACK EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
ON TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AIR FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
HEADS FOR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR
ARRIVES AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE UPDATE THIS MORNING, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COVERING
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 13Z. WHILE A FEW LOCALES REMAIN
CLOSE TO FREEZING, MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S,
AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. IN ADDITION, THE BULK OF
THE STEADIER, HEAVIER PRECIP HAS EXITED THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST,
AND ONLY SOME LIGHTER RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE, THE WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF PHILLY...THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE WARM/ISENTROPIC LIFT FRONT END THUMP THIS MORNING WAS HANDLED
PRETTY WELL BY ALL THE GUIDANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. THERMALLY
THE NAM SEEMED TO HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE MELTING LAYER
MOVEMENT, OR LACK THEREOF THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING IT SEEMS
THAT THE MELTING LAYER IS SITTING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
TTN WESTWARD TO PTW. DECENT SNOWRATES ARE STILL OCCURRING NORTH OF
THIS LINE AS A BIT MORE QPF WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATE LAST
NIGHT. THE OMEGA RATES WITHIN THE DGZ WERE VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHWARD.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF CLOSE TO 5 INCHES WERE REPORTED DURING THE PEAK
INTENSITY OF THE MESO BANDS THAT SETUP IN SEPA AND NNJ. WE ALREADY
HAD A 4-6" SWATH RUNNING THROUGH THESE AREAS BUT FELT THAT AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO WOULD BE VERY POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE WE WENT
TO WARNINGS. WITH THE HEAVY WET SNOW, SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN. THE COLUMN ALOFT DRIES OUT/WARMS UP TO THE POINT WE LOSE OUR
ICE CRYSTALS. MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH IT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. COLD AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR ANY
REMAINING MOISTURE TO TURN BACK OVER TO SNOW. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING, MID-30S ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES IN FROM
THE WEST, ALBEIT BRIEFLY. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH BRISK WESTERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-20S...SLIGHTLY COLDER IN FRESH PACK AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES ON TUESDAY BEFORE RIDGING FOLLOWS
THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY SEEMS
TO WANT TO YANK THE POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  A BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 MAV/MET FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.
THE 00Z/24 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER HEADING ESE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN OVER NRN DELMARVA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE PRECIP RATE INCREASES AND
SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINS TO
DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD
OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...ALTO OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH
THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS STORM TO DEEPEN CLOSER TO THE COAST
ON MONDAY. THIS CERTAINLY PORTENDS TO BECOME AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
SITUATION FOR THE DELMARVA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT POWDERY AMOUNTS OF SNOW. SNOW WATER
RATIOS SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT....IN
OTHER WORDS FLUFFIER.

A POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS IN THE OFFING FOR
A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25
MPH MAY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE DELMARVA...ESPECIALLY
THE DELAWARE COAST.

WIND CHILLS WILL BE NOTICED!

TIDAL SURGE: FAIRLY LARGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SHORES.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
FOR MID WEEK ON CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  .

THURSDAY...WAA CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...THIS ONE IN CANADA WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE CFP.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...IFR/LIFR, POSSIBLE VLIFR, IN AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY WET SNOW. TTN-ABE-RDG SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE POSSIBLY DRYING OUT SOME AS WE NEAR MID-DAY.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SOME DRYING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...VFR. BRISK WNW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING....ESPECIALLY KTTN SOUTHWARD.  CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY KILG AND
KMIV.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MON NIGHT - CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY VFR LATE.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE THE DEVELOPING STORM MAY FORCE SNOW TO
LINGER ALONG THE COAST.

TUE - WED...MOSTLY VFR.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS TODAY AND RACES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL GALES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DELAWARE COAST. SEAS COULD EASILY BUILD TO
12 FEET EAST OF CAPE MAY TO EAST OF DELAWARE IN PERSISTENT NNE FLOW.
LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-103-105.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLINE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 241303
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
803 AM EST SAT JAN 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE CROSSING EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA
EARLY TODAY WILL RACE PAST CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. A WEAK RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY FOLLOWS SUNDAY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO LOW
PRESSURE IN KENTUCKY SUNDAY EVENING. IT MOVES TO THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST MONDAY THEN INTENSIFIES ALONG ITS TRACK EAST OF NEW ENGLAND
ON TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE...COLDER AIR FOR SEVERAL DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
HEADS FOR THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. A REINFORCING SURGE OF COLD AIR
ARRIVES AFTER A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE UPDATE THIS MORNING, THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY COVERING
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND FAR SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA
HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 13Z. WHILE A FEW LOCALES REMAIN
CLOSE TO FREEZING, MANY LOCATIONS HAVE RISEN INTO THE MIDDLE 30S,
AND THIS TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. IN ADDITION, THE BULK OF
THE STEADIER, HEAVIER PRECIP HAS EXITED THE AREA TO THE NORTHEAST,
AND ONLY SOME LIGHTER RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

ELSEWHERE, THE WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES TO THE NORTH AND
WEST OF PHILLY...THROUGH THIS MORNING.

THE WARM/ISENTROPIC LIFT FRONT END THUMP THIS MORNING WAS HANDLED
PRETTY WELL BY ALL THE GUIDANCE THE PAST COUPLE OF RUNS. THERMALLY
THE NAM SEEMED TO HAVE THE BETTER HANDLE ON THE MELTING LAYER
MOVEMENT, OR LACK THEREOF THIS MORNING. AS OF THIS WRITING IT SEEMS
THAT THE MELTING LAYER IS SITTING JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
TTN WESTWARD TO PTW. DECENT SNOWRATES ARE STILL OCCURRING NORTH OF
THIS LINE AS A BIT MORE QPF WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE REGION LATE LAST
NIGHT. THE OMEGA RATES WITHIN THE DGZ WERE VERY IMPRESSIVE FOR
SEVERAL HOURS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NORTHWARD.
SEVERAL REPORTS OF CLOSE TO 5 INCHES WERE REPORTED DURING THE PEAK
INTENSITY OF THE MESO BANDS THAT SETUP IN SEPA AND NNJ. WE ALREADY
HAD A 4-6" SWATH RUNNING THROUGH THESE AREAS BUT FELT THAT AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR TWO WOULD BE VERY POSSIBLE AND THEREFORE WE WENT
TO WARNINGS. WITH THE HEAVY WET SNOW, SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ACROSS
THE WARNED AREA ARE QUITE POSSIBLE.

WE SHOULD BEGIN TO DRY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
TO OUR SOUTHEAST RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUES TO
DEEPEN. THE COLUMN ALOFT DRIES OUT/WARMS UP TO THE POINT WE LOSE OUR
ICE CRYSTALS. MARGINAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES MAY MAKE FOR SOME
FREEZING DRIZZLE THOUGH IT SHOULD BE VERY ISOLATED. COLD AIR WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE ALLOWING FOR ANY
REMAINING MOISTURE TO TURN BACK OVER TO SNOW. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS AS
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING, MID-30S ACROSS
OUR EASTERN ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD COME TO AN END AS HIGH PRESSURE PRESSES IN FROM
THE WEST, ALBEIT BRIEFLY. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH BRISK WESTERLY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DIP INTO THE MID TO
UPPER-20S...SLIGHTLY COLDER IN FRESH PACK AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES HEADING SOUTHEAST FROM CENTRAL NORTH
AMERICA SUNDAY WILL PROBABLY EVOLVE INTO A STRONG LONG WAVE TROUGH
OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD STATES ON TUESDAY BEFORE RIDGING FOLLOWS
THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE PASSAGE THROUGH SOUTHEAST CANADA FRIDAY SEEMS
TO WANT TO YANK THE POLAR VORTEX SOUTHWARD TO NEAR JAMES BAY BY THE
START OF NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: NEAR NORMAL SUNDAY THEN BELOW NORMAL MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WITH POTENTIALLY WELL BELOW NORMAL TEMPS TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.  A BRIEF RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED WITHIN THE DAILIES. THIS
FORECAST IS A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/24 MAV/MET FOR SUNDAY-MONDAY.
THE 00Z/24 MEX MOS WAS APPLIED MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY.NO CHANGES
WERE MADE TO THE FORECAST BEYOND TUESDAY.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...A QUIET DAY WITH WEAK COLD AIR ADVECTION. INCREASING CLOUDS
AHEAD OF THE CLIPPER HEADING ESE FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.

SUNDAY NIGHT-MONDAY NIGHT...SNOW OVERSPREADS THE AREA SUNDAY EVENING.
PRECIP COULD BEGIN OVER NRN DELMARVA AS A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW BUT
SHOULD CHANGE TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT AS THE PRECIP RATE INCREASES AND
SOME NOCTURNAL COOLING TAKES PLACE. PERIODS OF SNOW SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO MONDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY TO OUR SOUTH AND THEN BEGINS TO
DEEPEN OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW COULD
OCCUR MONDAY MORNING...ALTO OVERALL AMOUNTS SHOULD BE LIGHT THOUGH
THERE IS OPPORTUNITY FOR THIS STORM TO DEEPEN CLOSER TO THE COAST
ON MONDAY. THIS CERTAINLY PORTENDS TO BECOME AT LEAST AN ADVISORY
SITUATION FOR THE DELMARVA AND COASTAL NEW JERSEY AND NEEDS TO BE
MONITORED FOR MORE SIGNIFICANT POWDERY AMOUNTS OF SNOW. SNOW WATER
RATIOS SHOULD BE MUCH DRIER THAN WHAT OCCURRED LAST NIGHT....IN
OTHER WORDS FLUFFIER.

A POTENTIAL HAZARDOUS MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE IS IN THE OFFING FOR
A PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS TO 20 TO 25
MPH MAY CAUSE SOME DRIFTING OF THE SNOW ON THE DELMARVA...ESPECIALLY
THE DELAWARE COAST.

WIND CHILLS WILL BE NOTICED!

TIDAL SURGE: FAIRLY LARGE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO NORTHERLY
FLOW WITH SMALL POTENTIAL FOR MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC SHORES.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRES AND DRIER AIR WILL GRADUALLY MOVE IN
FOR MID WEEK ON CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW WITH GUSTS TO 20 MPH
DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.  .

THURSDAY...WAA CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE SNOW SHOWERS LATE THURSDAY AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SHORT WAVE...THIS ONE IN CANADA WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT
TO FOLLOW FRIDAY.

FRIDAY...CAA DEVELOPS BEHIND THE CFP.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...IFR/LIFR, POSSIBLE VLIFR, IN AREAS OF MODERATE TO
HEAVY WET SNOW. TTN-ABE-RDG SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY SNOW THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE POSSIBLY DRYING OUT SOME AS WE NEAR MID-DAY.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY RAIN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
SOME DRYING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

TONIGHT...VFR. BRISK WNW WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN...VFR. ABOVE AVERAGE CONFIDENCE.

SUN NIGHT...CONDITIONS DIMINISHING WITH IFR POSSIBLE AND SNOW BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING....ESPECIALLY KTTN SOUTHWARD.  CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE

MON...MVFR/IFR WITH LOWER CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW...ESPECIALLY KILG AND
KMIV.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MON NIGHT - CONDITIONS SLOWLY IMPROVING TO MVFR...POSSIBLY VFR LATE.
CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE SINCE THE DEVELOPING STORM MAY FORCE SNOW TO
LINGER ALONG THE COAST.

TUE - WED...MOSTLY VFR.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY - TONIGHT...CONTINUED SCA CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE AS COASTAL
LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY DEEPENS TODAY AND RACES OFF TOWARDS THE
NORTHEAST. NORTHEAST WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST LATER
TODAY BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW PRESSURE.

OUTLOOK...
STRONG SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EARLY
MONDAY MORNING AND MAY CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. POTENTIAL GALES
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT DELAWARE COAST. SEAS COULD EASILY BUILD TO
12 FEET EAST OF CAPE MAY TO EAST OF DELAWARE IN PERSISTENT NNE FLOW.
LIGHT TO POSSIBLY MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY POTENTIAL MONDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR PAZ054-
     055-060>062-103-105.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST SUNDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER/KLINE
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...DRAG/HEAVENER
AVIATION...DRAG/HEAVENER
MARINE...DRAG/HEAVENER







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