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000
FXUS61 KPHI 072056
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL RAPIDLY
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. BEHIND THESE TWO LOWS, ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE NATION AROUND MIDWEEK AND
WORK ITS WAY TOWARD THE EAST COAST BY THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, BEFORE THE
POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL DEVELOPS ALONG COASTAL PORTIONS OF DELAWARE
AND NEW JERSEY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST STATES
WILL LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD IS EXPECTED TO EXPAND
SLIGHTLY ON THE WEST SIDE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING AS THE LOW
LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST. AS OF NOW THE QUESTION FOR OUR AREA IS HOW
FAR WEST. BASED ON RECENT MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND COLLABORATION, WE
EXPECT THE MAJORITY OF THE PRECIPITATION TO REMAIN RIGHT NEAR THE
COAST AND OFFSHORE, THEN EXTEND TO OUR NORTH AND EAST. THE NAM AND
SREF ARE CURRENTLY THOUGHT TO BE HIGH WITH THEIR AMOUNTS, WHILE A
BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF GIVE A BETTER EXPECTATION OF AMOUNTS.
ANOTHER CONCERN WOULD BE HOW MUCH WOULD ACCUMULATE BASED ON
TEMPERATURES, AS TEMPERATURES AT THE ONSET WILL LIKELY BE ABOVE
FREEZING. SO FOR NOW WE ARE EXPECTING AROUND AN INCH FOR MUCH OF THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS, WITH 1-2 INCHES ACROSS AREAS
FURTHER NORTH INTO NORTHERN OCEAN AND MONMOUTH COUNTIES AND EASTERN
MIDDLESEX. SO WE WILL NOT ISSUE ANY WINTER ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME
AND LET LATER SHIFTS MONITOR FUTURE GUIDANCE AND SEE IF A SHORT
FUSED ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
ON MONDAY, THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. MEANWHILE, A
WEAKENING BACKDOOR FRONT MAY SAG DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN AREAS AS
WELL. THERE MAY LIKELY BE SOME SNOWFALL REMAINING ON THE BACKSIDE OF
THE LOW, AND AS THE BACKDOOR FRONT WEAKENS AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
INTO OUR AREA, IT COULD HELP ENHANCE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS. SO THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE OF SNOW ACROSS OUR
NORTHEASTERN AREAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. AGAIN, THE
HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD ARE EXPECTED TO BE OFFSHORE
AND TO OUR NORTHEAST, SO WHILE THERE COULD BE A LIGHT ACCUMULATING
SNOWFALL, WE DO NOT EXPECT ADVISORY LEVEL SNOWS TO BE MET AT THIS
TIME. ESPECIALLY IF SNOWFALL MIXES WITH OR CHANGES OVER TO RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NR THE MID ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. THE GUID IS IN AGREEMENT ON THIS PART. THE DISAGREEMENT
LIES IN THE DETAILS, WHICH ARE IMPORTANT.

YESTERDAY, THE ECMWF, WENT OUT ON ITS OWN, WITH A STRONGER AND
MORE EWD SOLN. IT CONTINUED THAT TREND ON THE OVERNIGHT RUN AND
AGAIN ON TODAY`S RUN. IT HAS A MORE CONSOLIDATED LOW CENTER,
BRINGS THAT CENTER FURTHER AWAY FROM THE CST, AND HAS MUCH LESS
IMPACT ON OUR AREA.

WHILE THE ECMWF`S PERFORMANCE HAS BEEN LESS THAN STELLAR THIS
WINTER, AND IT IS A CLEAR OUTLIER IN THIS CASE. HOWEVER, ITS
OVERALL STATISTICS MEAN IT`S SOLUTION CAN NOT BE TOTALLY IGNORED,
AND STRANGER THINGS HAVE HAPPENED.

THE REST OF THE OTHER MDLS DO BRING A GENLY LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE
AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUE. PRECIP WILL BEGIN LATER MON AND TEMPS
WILL BE WARM ENOUGH TO SUPPORT RAIN OR SNOW THAT HAS A HARD TIME
ACCUMULATING IN MOST AREAS AND ON MANY SURFACES DURING THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

AFTER SUNSET, THE SNOW WOULD START TO ACCUMULATE MORE. THE GUID
ALSO DIFFERS ON THE AREAS THAT WOULD SEE THE MOST QPF AND CHCS OF
HEAVIEST SNOWS. WHILE MOST OF THE SNOW LOOKS TO FALL WOULD BE ON
THE LIGHTER SIDE, EVEN WITH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD, THE MDLS WERE
HAVING TROUBLE DECIPHERING THIS EVEN 12 HOURS BEFOREHAND.

SO FOR NOW, WILL ONLY MAKE INCREMENTAL CHANGES TO THE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS. ATTM, THIS LOOKS LIKE AN ADVY EVENT OR PSBLY LOW END WRNG
IN SOME AREAS.

ANOTHER COMPLICATING FACTOR IS TEMPS DURG THE DAY ON TUE. TEMPS
WILL BE ABV FREEZING IN MANY AREAS, SO THERE CUD BE A MIX OR
CHANGEOVER TO RAIN, ESPECIALLY IN SRN AND ERN AREAS, AND MUCH
LIKE WE HAD THE OTHER DAY, EVEN WHERE IT SNOWS, IT COULD END UP
ACCUMULATING MAINLY ON GRASSY SFCS AND LESS TRAVELED ROADS DURG
DAYLIGHT HOURS, IF IT IS NOT COMING DOWN HARD.

THINGS SHUD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TUE NIGHT INTO WED.

THEN, A LARGE AREA OF ARCTIC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL
CONUS. THIS HIGH WILL GRADUALLY MOVE EWD THRU THE END OF THE WEEK.
EXPECT A GENLY DRY AND BREEZY NWLY FLOW WED THRU SAT. HOWEVER
TEMPS WILL NOT MAKE IT ABV FREEZING FROM THU ON. WITH OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE TEENS. NRML LOWS ARE IN THE LOWER 40S NOW. SO WE ARE
LOOKING AT HIGH TEMPS THAT WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 20 DEGREES BELOW
NRML, AND WITH THE DAYS GETTING INCREASINGLY LONGER, THIS IS
INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO ACCOMPLISH, ESPECIALLY FOR AN EXTENDD
PD.



&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF SITES FOR AT LEAST THE
FIRST HALF OF THE OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT CLOUDS TO LOWER ON
THE NORTHWESTERN SIDE OF THE STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVING TO THE
NORTHEAST WELL OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST. LOOKING AT THE SOUNDINGS,
MVFR CIGS SHOULD BEGIN AFFECTING ALL AREAS BY AROUND 10-12Z, AND
COULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. ANOTHER CONCERN
WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOWFALL. BASED ON
LATEST MODEL DIAGNOSTICS AND COLLABORATION, WE EXPECT SNOWFALL TO
REMAIN ACROSS MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE AND
OFFSHORE. THE MAIN TAF SITES THAT WOULD BE AFFECTED WOULD BE ACY,
WHICH COULD EXPERIENCE IFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY SNOWFALL, IN ADDITION
TO MIV WHICH COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE SOME LIGHTER SNOWFALL AS WELL.

WINDS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY EAST-NORTHEASTERLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS FOR
THE REST OF TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING
OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD, AND LIKELY BECOME GUSTY 20-25
KNOTS BY MONDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE GUSTY THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF
THE DAY, BEFORE THE GUSTS DROP OFF BY AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT AND TUE...PRECIP WILL BE ONGOING DURG THIS TIME AND FOR
FOR KPHL, KPNE, KMIV, KACY WILL TRANSITION FROM RAIN OR MIX TO
SNOW MON NIGHT. ELSEWHERE WILL BE SNOW MON NIGHT. PRECIP SHUD BE
LIGHT FOR THE MOST PART BUT THERE CUD BE SOME MDT OR HVY BURSTS.
EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDS. ON TUE, TEMPS SHUD WARM ENOUGH THAT FOR
KPHL, KPNE, KACY, KMIV SHUD AGAIN SEE A MIX OR CHANGEOVER TO RAIN,
DEPENDING ON HOW WARM TEMPS GET.  LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

WED...SOME LINGERING SHSN, THEN IMPROVING TO VFR. BREEZY WITH W
TO NW WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KT.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

THU...VFR AND BREEZY WITH NW WIND GUSTING 25 TO 30 KT. HIGH
CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS A STRONG
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE LIFTING EAST OF THE WATERS
TONIGHT INTO MONDAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD. AS WE PROGRESS THROUGH MONDAY
AND THE LOW LIFTS AWAY FROM THE AREA, THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WEAKENS
AND WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO SUBSIDE INTO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYS WILL DEVELOP OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT IS PSBL THAT THERE CUD BE SOME GALES,
ESPECIALLY ON WED, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE TRACK AND
STRENGTH OF THE LOW.

THU...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS. NW WINDS BEHIND A CFP, WITH THE BEST
CHC FOR GALES.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS LIKELY NEAR THE MONDAY MORNING
HIGH TIDE. THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE COASTAL
FLOODING NEAR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE***

HIGH PRESSURE WILL ANCHOR OVER EASTERN QUEBEC/LABRADOR WHILE LOW
PRESSURE PASSING OFFSHORE WELL TO THE SOUTHEAST UNDERGOES EXPLOSIVE
DEEPENING OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING TO OUR NORTH, A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE OUTER BANKS MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS
OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST THRU
TUESDAY, WITH ONLY A BRIEF PAUSE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT, AS BRIEF RIDGING BETWEEN SYSTEMS MOVES OVERHEAD.

SETTING THE STAGE, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH EARLY THIS WEEK,
TO DUE TO THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY.

FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, WE THINK THE NAM BACKS THE WINDS
TOO MUCH /MORE NORTHERLY/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE, POSSIBLY DUE TO
AN ISALLOBARIC EFFECT WITH THE DEEPENING OFFSHORE SYSTEM, AND IT WAS
DEEMED AN OUTLIER. WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND NORTHEAST WINDS
QUICKLY RAMPING UP TO GALE FORCE GUSTS JUST OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT, WE
EXPECT A SURGE OF 1 TO 1.5 FEET. WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY COAST WHERE POCKETS OF MODERATE FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE, DUE TO
THE PRESENCE OF A GREATER COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW. WE HAVE ALSO
TEMPERED DOWN THE HIGH-BIASED ET AND ESTOFS GUIDANCE DUE TO A
RESIDUAL OF NEARLY 1 FOOT IN SPOTS. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE ALONG THE NJ AND DE
OCEANFRONT, WHICH ALSO INCLUDES DELAWARE BAY. THERE IS A BIT MORE
UNCERTAINTY ON WHETHER WE REACH THE MINOR THRESHOLD AT REEDY POINT,
WHICH IS LARGELY DEPENDENT ON EKMAN TRANSPORT IN A NORTHEAST FLOW,
BUT WE EXPECT IT TO BE CLOSE NONETHELESS.

FOR THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE EASTERLY COMPONENT/LONGER
FETCH TO THE WIND WILL HAVE A GREATER IMPACT ALONG THE ENTIRE COAST,
INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY, AND PORTIONS OF THE TIDAL DELAWARE. WE AGREE
WITH THE STRONGER GFS WINDS, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE SYNOPTIC SETUP.
THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS REGARDING A BROAD LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE COAST, WHICH MAY ALLOW WINDS TO QUICKLY
RELAX NEAR THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE, PARTICULARLY DELMARVA AND FAR
SOUTHERN NJ. NEVERTHELESS, ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THIS FLOW
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND VERY MONDAY NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY 48
HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH WILL MAKE FOR HIGHER TIDAL
DEPARTURES COMPARED TO MONDAY MORNING, IN ADDITION TO THE
ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES. IN TERMS OF GUIDANCE, WE SIDED MORE WITH
THE HIGHER ETSS SURGE OF 2 TO 2.5 FEET, EVEN CONSIDERING THE
AFOREMENTIONED RESIDUAL. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE FOR NJ AND DE OCEANFRONT WITH THE
HIGHEST CONFIDENCE IN MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NJ. ELSEWHERE, WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED, PERHAPS UP TO PHILADELPHIA, GIVEN THE MORE EASTERLY
FLOW UP DELAWARE BAY. FOR THESE AREAS, A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL
LIKELY BE NEEDED.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR NJZ012>014-020>027.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR NJZ016.
DE...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 5 AM MONDAY TO 4 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR DEZ002>004.
     COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 1 PM EST MONDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 071554
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1054 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN
ITS WAKE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA WILL REINFORCE THE SUPPLY OF ARCTIC AIR INTO OUR
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES EXPECTED TO THE FORECAST FOR THE DAYTIME HOURS OTHER
THAN A FEW HOURLY CHANGES. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE GETS SQUEEZED OUT AS
THE COASTAL LOW TO THE SOUTH STRENGTHENS AND MOVES NORTH.

OVERALL, ANOTHER PLEASANT FAIR WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE
REGION WITH DRY CONDITIONS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY;
ALTHOUGH, SOME CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE IN ACROSS THE AREA
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST. WINDS WILL START OUT LIGHT AND VARIABLE AND EVENTUALLY
TAKE ON A NORTH-NORTHEAST DIRECTION AS THE DAY WEARS ON, REMAINING
UNDER 10MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BEING A LITTLE BIT ABOVE
EARLY FEBRUARY NORMALS, AND WE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MOSTLY INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 40S, EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS OVER THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WILL BE ARRIVING ACROSS THE REGION
FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OUT TO SEA AND AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD.
LATEST 0Z MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS STRONG LOW PRESSURE FAR ENOUGH
TO THE EAST TO KEEP OUR REGION PRECIP-FREE DESPITE THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MIGHT BE FAR EASTERN AREAS NEAR
THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND PERHAPS THE DELAWARE BEACHES WHERE WE
HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. OTHERWISE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY MORNING MONDAY NEAR THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH READINGS DROPPING OFF INTO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED FOR THE 00Z RUN
WITH THE TRACK OF STRONG OFFSHORE LOW ON MONDAY. MANY OF THE
PREVIOUSLY WESTERN OUTLIER SUCH AS THE NAM AND GEM HAVE TRENDED
FARTHER TO THE EAST AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS. INTERESTINGLY, MANY OF THE 03Z SREF ARW/NMB MEMBERS ARE
SHOWING A SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR US WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM.
ASIDE FROM THE SREF, THERE IS NOW LITTLE SUPPORT FOR OUR IMPACT
FROM THIS STORM BEING MUCH MORE THAN SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING SUPPORT THAT
THIS STORM WILL MISS OUR AREA, THIS POWERFUL STORM STILL BEARS
WATCHING IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT THAT IT TRENDS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
ONLY A 50 MILE (100 MILE) SHIFT IN THE TRACK BACK TO THE WEST
COULD RESULT IN ADVISORY (WARNING) LEVEL SNOWFALL CLOSE THE COAST
ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GEM. THOUGH VERY UNLIKELY, WE`VE SEEN CRAZIER
THINGS. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY, MODEL CONSENSUS FOR DAYS LEADING
UP TO THE PAST TWO STORMS (THE LATE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO) HAD A DISTINCT EASTWARD BIAS IN THE TRACK.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS UPSTREAM TO A DIGGING UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY
EVENING AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IF THE ONSET OF THE LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE IN TIME TO FOR THE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COMMUTE OR IF IT
HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER.

AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER SOUTHERN VA, MODELS ARE
SHOWING IT TRANSFERRING ITS ENERGY TO A SECONDARY LOW THAT DEVELOPS
OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
MILLER-B COASTAL LOW ORGANIZING A BIT TOO LATE AND TOO FAR OFFSHORE
TO BRING HEAVIER SNOW BACK INLAND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. INSTEAD
THEY SHOW AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAKER PRIMARY LOW.
ALTHOUGH PARTIAL THICKNESS NOMOGRAMS IMPLY ALL SNOW, THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW, SO RAIN AND/OR MELTING OF
SNOW ON CONTACT WOULD CUT DOWN ON TOTALS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...
ESPECIALLY WHEN PRECIP INTENSITY IS LIGHT. THERE STILL ISN`T ENOUGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH MUCH MORE THAN A WIDESPREAD 1-3
INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER, WE NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOWFALL LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS CSI PRESENT WITHIN THE INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS (I.E., A NORLUN TROUGH). THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER
BAND, IF IT DEVELOPS, IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT THE TREND HAS
BEEN TO PLACE IT SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN PA-CENTRAL NJ. SOME
SHIFT IT EVEN FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE DELMARVA-SOUTHERN NJ ALTHOUGH
WARM SURFACE TEMPS COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS THIS THIS FAR SOUTH. THE 00Z GFS IS QUITE MORE BULLISH
WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS IT HOLDS MORE ENERGY BACK WITH THE PRIMARY
LOW. THIS GFS RUN ALSO KEEPS ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER OUR AREA FOR 60
HOURS, WHICH SEEMS DOUBTFUL.

WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND PROGRESSES THRU THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. IN ITS WAKE,
THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FALL LINE. A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IS FORECAST TO TAKE AIM
FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES AS A PIECE OF THE WELL-
KNOWN POLAR VORTEX DIGS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES
COULD BE 15-20F BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED, WITH PERHAPS SOME CIRRUS WORKING IN ACROSS THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS EARLY WILL START OUT CALM OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, EVENTUALLY TAKING ON A NORTH-NORTHEAST DIRECTION WITH
SPEEDS ONLY AVERAGING ABOUT 4 TO 6 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT, WITH SOME
POSSIBLE SUB-VFR DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN NJ DUE TO AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE STORM. THERE IS
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF SNOW ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS
OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE. CONTINUED NORTHEAST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WITH SPEEDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO DAYBREAK MONDAY INTO
THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE, WITH SOME GUSTS DEVELOPING LATE FOR
EASTERN NJ TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. IT MAY BE WARM ENOUGH AT THE ONSET TO BEGIN AS A RA/SN
MIX FOR PHL AND NEARBY TERMINALS...AND RAIN AT ACY/MIV. EVENTUALLY
IT WILL LIKELY TURN OVER TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT
SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD PREDOMINATELY BE LIGHT DURING THIS EVENT BUT
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER BANDS TO DEVELOP. THE SNOW
WOULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS. THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS WELL. BREEZY WLY
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT.

THURSDAY...VFR AND BREEZY NW WINDS. BREEZY NWLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30
KT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL START THE DAY FOR THE AREA
WATERS, BUT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR
OUR OCEAN WATERS AS NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BEGIN TO REACH INTO THE
25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.

TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS EVEN FURTHER, AND WE ANTICIPATE TO REACH
GALE GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS PLUS FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS. WE THEREFORE HAVE
ISSUED A GALE WARNING BEGINNING AT 8PM THIS EVENING AS THE GALE
GUSTS DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE ANTICIPATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS TO ENSUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AND THE SCA
FLAG BEGINS AT 8PM FOR THE UPPER AND LOWER BAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...THE GALE WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO A WARNING FOR THE COASTAL
ATLANTIC WATERS FOR MONDAY. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT, ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER OFFSHORE YOU GO. THE
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON THOUGH IT MAY BE ABLE TO BE
CANCELLED EARLIER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE LOW TRACKS WELL EAST OF
LONG ISLAND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FOLLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT COULD POTENTIAL REACH GALE
FORCE LATE WEDNESDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.

THURSDAY...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS. NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH GALE FORCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***WE ARE WATCHING TWO POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOOD EVENTS NEAR THE
MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE***

THE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
WELL EAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW
ALONG THE COAST TO VARYING DEGREES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH TO BEGIN WITH GIVEN THE NEW MOON
TOMORROW.

FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN NJ COAST, WHERE THE GREATEST
COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. GIVEN THE SHORT
DURATION OF STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, THE WIND BACKING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH /MORE OFFSHORE/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE,
AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM TRACK, CONFIDENCE
REGARDING IMPACTS IS LOW. THE LATEST INDICATION IS ANY COASTAL
FLOODING WOULD BE MINOR (ADVISORY LEVEL).

REGARDING THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, WE EXPECT STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THIS FLOW LATE MONDAY,
WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY 48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO BEGIN WITH. IN
ADDITION, A MORE EASTERLY WIND WILL MAKE FOR A LONGER FETCH IN
TERMS OF BUILDING WAVE ACTION. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND ALSO FARTHER UP THE DELAWARE BAY. A FEW
LOCATIONS ON THE ATLANTIC COAST MAY EXPERIENCE MODERATE FLOODING
TUESDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH YET.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...KLINE/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/KLINE
MARINE...KLEIN/KLINE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 070914
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
414 AM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEEPEN RAPIDLY OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY AND
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST COAST TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN
ITS WAKE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND INTO TUESDAY.
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND
WEST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH THE AREA WILL REINFORCE THE SUPPLY OF ARCTIC AIR INTO OUR
REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ANOTHER PLEASANT FAIR WEATHER DAY IS EXPECTED FOR THE REGION WITH
DRY CONDITIONS AND AMPLE SUNSHINE THROUGH THE DAY; ALTHOUGH, SOME
CIRRUS WILL BEGIN TO ADVANCE IN ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM ORGANIZING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. WINDS
WILL START OUT LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE MORNING AND EVENTUALLY
TAKE ON A NORTH-NORTHEAST DIRECTION AS THE DAY WEARS ON, REMAINING
UNDER 10MPH. TEMPERATURES WILL END UP BEING A LITTLE BIT ABOVE
EARLY FEBRUARY NORMALS, AND WE GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV
GUIDANCE. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MOSTLY INTO THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER 40S, EXCEPT SLIGHTLY COOLER READINGS OVER THE SOUTHERN
POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THICKENING AND LOWERING CLOUDS WILL BE ARRIVING ACROSS THE REGION
FROM SOUTHEAST TO NORTHWEST AS OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD OUT TO SEA AND AWAY FROM THE SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD.
LATEST 0Z MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS THIS STRONG LOW PRESSURE FAR ENOUGH
TO THE EAST TO KEEP OUR REGION PRECIP-FREE DESPITE THE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS MIGHT BE FAR EASTERN AREAS NEAR
THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND PERHAPS THE DELAWARE BEACHES WHERE WE
HAVE KEPT SOME SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS OVERNIGHT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW. OTHERWISE NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS
ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH SPEEDS
INCREASING TO BETWEEN 10 TO 15 MPH. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 25 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE INTO EARLY MORNING MONDAY NEAR THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND
DELAWARE. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT, WITH READINGS DROPPING OFF INTO THE UPPER
20S AND LOWER 30S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE HAS DECREASED FOR THE 00Z RUN
WITH THE TRACK OF STRONG OFFSHORE LOW ON MONDAY. MANY OF THE
PREVIOUSLY WESTERN OUTLIER SUCH AS THE NAM AND GEM HAVE TRENDED
FARTHER TO THE EAST AND IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF/GFS
SOLUTIONS. INTERESTINGLY, MANY OF THE 03Z SREF ARW/NMB MEMBERS ARE
SHOWING A SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW FOR US WITH THIS FIRST SYSTEM.
ASIDE FROM THE SREF, THERE IS NOW LITTLE SUPPORT FOR OUR IMPACT
FROM THIS STORM BEING MUCH MORE THAN SOME LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES
ALONG THE COAST ON MONDAY. EVEN WITH THE INCREASING SUPPORT THAT
THIS STORM WILL MISS OUR AREA, THIS POWERFUL STORM STILL BEARS
WATCHING IN THE UNLIKELY EVENT THAT IT TRENDS CLOSER TO THE COAST.
ONLY A 50 MILE (100 MILE) SHIFT IN THE TRACK BACK TO THE WEST
COULD RESULT IN ADVISORY (WARNING) LEVEL SNOWFALL CLOSE THE COAST
ACCORDING TO THE 00Z GEM. THOUGH VERY UNLIKELY, WE`VE SEEN CRAZIER
THINGS. AS MENTIONED YESTERDAY, MODEL CONSENSUS FOR DAYS LEADING
UP TO THE PAST TWO STORMS (THE LATE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE A
COUPLE OF DAYS AGO) HAD A DISTINCT EASTWARD BIAS IN THE TRACK.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS UPSTREAM TO A DIGGING UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG GUIDANCE
FOR LIGHT SNOW TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY
EVENING AS A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE MID
ATLANTIC. THERE IS STILL UNCERTAINTY IF THE ONSET OF THE LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE IN TIME TO FOR THE MONDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING COMMUTE OR IF IT
HOLDS OFF UNTIL AFTER.

AS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW MOVES OVER SOUTHERN VA, MODELS ARE
SHOWING IT TRANSFERRING ITS ENERGY TO A SECONDARY LOW THAT DEVELOPS
OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS
MILLER-B COASTAL LOW ORGANIZING A BIT TOO LATE AND TOO FAR OFFSHORE
TO BRING HEAVIER SNOW BACK INLAND INTO THE FORECAST AREA. INSTEAD
THEY SHOW AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT SNOW MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE WEAKER PRIMARY LOW.
ALTHOUGH PARTIAL THICKNESS NOMOGRAMS IMPLY ALL SNOW, THE BOUNDARY
LAYER IS MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF SNOW, SO RAIN AND/OR MELTING OF
SNOW ON CONTACT WOULD CUT DOWN ON TOTALS AT LOWER ELEVATIONS...
ESPECIALLY WHEN PRECIP INTENSITY IS LIGHT. THERE STILL ISN`T ENOUGH
FORECAST CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH MUCH MORE THAN A WIDESPREAD 1-3
INCHES OF SNOWFALL FOR THIS EVENT. HOWEVER, WE NEED TO WATCH FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCAL ENHANCEMENT OF THE SNOWFALL LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, ESPECIALLY IF THERE IS CSI PRESENT WITHIN THE INVERTED
TROUGH AXIS (I.E., A NORLUN TROUGH). THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER
BAND, IF IT DEVELOPS, IS STILL HIGHLY UNCERTAIN BUT THE TREND HAS
BEEN TO PLACE IT SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHEASTERN PA-CENTRAL NJ. SOME
SHIFT IT EVEN FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE DELMARVA-SOUTHERN NJ ALTHOUGH
WARM SURFACE TEMPS COULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER
ACCUMULATIONS THIS THIS FAR SOUTH. THE 00Z GFS IS QUITE MORE BULLISH
WITH SNOWFALL AMOUNTS AS IT HOLDS MORE ENERGY BACK WITH THE PRIMARY
LOW. THIS GFS RUN ALSO KEEPS ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER OUR AREA FOR 60
HOURS, WHICH SEEMS DOUBTFUL.

WILL KEEP A CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND PROGRESSES THRU THE AREA. A
COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY. IN ITS WAKE,
THE LEADING EDGE OF ARCTIC AIR ADVANCES INTO THE REGION. TEMPS
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE FREEZING IN THE
COASTAL PLAIN AND LIKELY REMAIN IN THE 20S NORTH AND WEST OF THE
FALL LINE. A REINFORCING SHOT OF ARCTIC AIR IS FORECAST TO TAKE AIM
FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES AS A PIECE OF THE WELL-
KNOWN POLAR VORTEX DIGS INTO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA. TEMPERATURES
COULD BE 15-20F BELOW NORMAL FOR NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED, WITH PERHAPS SOME CIRRUS WORKING IN ACROSS THE
REGION LATE IN THE DAY. WINDS EARLY WILL START OUT CALM OR LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, EVENTUALLY TAKING ON A NORTH-NORTHEAST DIRECTION WITH
SPEEDS ONLY AVERAGING ABOUT 4 TO 6 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH MOST OF THE NIGHT, WITH SOME
POSSIBLE SUB-VFR DEVELOPING TOWARD DAYBREAK MONDAY, ESPECIALLY
ACROSS EASTERN NJ DUE TO AN APPROACHING OFFSHORE STORM. CONTINUED
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH SPEEDS INCREASING OVERNIGHT TO
DAYBREAK MONDAY INTO THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE, WITH SOME GUSTS
DEVELOPING LATE FOR EASTERN NJ TO BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
OR EVENING. IT MAY BE WARM ENOUGH AT THE ONSET TO BEGIN AS A RA/SN
MIX FOR PHL AND NEARBY TERMINALS...AND RAIN AT ACY/MIV. EVENTUALLY
IT WILL LIKELY TURN OVER TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE MONDAY NIGHT AND
CONTINUE AT TIMES INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. RIGHT NOW, IT APPEARS THAT
SNOWFALL RATES SHOULD PREDOMINATELY BE LIGHT DURING THIS EVENT BUT
THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVIER BANDS TO DEVELOP. THE SNOW
WOULD RESULT IN PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR RESTRICTIONS. THERE IS STILL
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE IMPACTS TO THE TERMINALS
DURING THIS PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY...LEFTOVER SNOW SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST
DURING THE DAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS WELL. BREEZY WLY
WINDS GUSTING TO 25 KT.

THURSDAY...VFR AND BREEZY NW WINDS. BREEZY NWLY WINDS GUSTING TO 30
KT.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL START THE DAY FOR THE AREA
WATERS, BUT WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. THIS WILL
LEAD TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR
OUR OCEAN WATERS AS NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS BEGIN TO REACH INTO THE
25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.

TONIGHT...AS THE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST LATER TONIGHT, THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS EVEN FURTHER, AND WE ANTICIPATE TO REACH
GALE GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS PLUS FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS. WE THEREFORE HAVE
ISSUED A GALE WARNING BEGINNING AT 8PM THIS EVENING AS THE GALE
GUSTS DEVELOP FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THROUGH OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. FOR DELAWARE BAY, WE ANTICIPATE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WIND
GUSTS OF 25 KNOTS TO ENSUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, AND THE SCA
FLAG BEGINS AT 8PM FOR THE UPPER AND LOWER BAY.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY...THE GALE WATCH WAS CONVERTED TO A WARNING FOR THE COASTAL
ATLANTIC WATERS FOR MONDAY. MOST GUIDANCE SHOWS THE POTENTIAL FOR
FREQUENT GUSTS TO 35 KT, ESPECIALLY THE FARTHER OFFSHORE YOU GO. THE
GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON THOUGH IT MAY BE ABLE TO BE
CANCELLED EARLIER FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE LOW TRACKS WELL EAST OF
LONG ISLAND. SCA CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY FOLLOW DURING THE AFTERNOON.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT COULD POTENTIAL REACH GALE
FORCE LATE WEDNESDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.

THURSDAY...SOLID SCA CONDITIONS. NW WINDS BEHIND A COLD FRONT COULD
APPROACH GALE FORCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***WE ARE WATCHING TWO POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOOD EVENTS NEAR THE
MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE***

THE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS
WELL EAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE COMPONENT TO THE FLOW
ALONG THE COAST TO VARYING DEGREES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY.
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL BE HIGH TO BEGIN WITH GIVEN THE NEW MOON
TOMORROW.

FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN NJ COAST, WHERE THE GREATEST
COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. GIVEN THE SHORT
DURATION OF STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, THE WIND BACKING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH /MORE OFFSHORE/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE,
AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM TRACK, CONFIDENCE
REGARDING IMPACTS IS LOW. THE LATEST INDICATION IS ANY COASTAL
FLOODING WOULD BE MINOR (ADVISORY LEVEL).

REGARDING THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, WE EXPECT STRONGER
ONSHORE FLOW. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THIS FLOW LATE MONDAY,
WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY 48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW, WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO BEGIN WITH. IN
ADDITION, A MORE EASTERLY WIND WILL MAKE FOR A LONGER FETCH IN
TERMS OF BUILDING WAVE ACTION. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ALONG THE
ATLANTIC COAST AND ALSO FARTHER UP THE DELAWARE BAY. A FEW
LOCATIONS ON THE ATLANTIC COAST MAY EXPERIENCE MODERATE FLOODING
TUESDAY MORNING BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH YET.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/KLINE
MARINE...KLEIN/KLINE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KLEIN/FRANCK




000
FXUS61 KPHI 070235
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING FCST. MOSTLY CLR
SKIES ARE ACROSS THE AREA. OCCASIONAL CI/CS CLOUDS ACROSS THE DEL
VALLEY AREAS. TEMPERATURES BEHAVING AS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY UPPER
20S/LOW 30S ATTM WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW/MID 20S
BY MORNING...EXCEPT UPPER 20S IN THE METRO AREAS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER ANOTHER FROSTY START, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT THE
FORECAST TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE 2 SYSTEMS TO WATCH DURG THE EXTENDD PD. THE FIRST IS A
STRONG CSTL LOW THAT EMERGES OFF THE SERN CST ON SUN. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE MDL GUID KEEPS THIS LOW OFF THE ATLC CST, WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS IS A VERY STRONG LOW AND BEARS
WATCHING AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH ON MON. THE NAM AND CMC IS
IMPLYING A MORE WWD TRACK THAT WOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACTS ON
CSTL AREAS OF NJ. THE MORE WWD SOLN HAS SEEMINGLY WON OUT THIS
SEASON, WITH THE JAN BLIZZARD AND EVEN THE SYS EARLIER THIS WEEK,
SO THIS SOLN IS NOT TERRIBLY FAR FETCHED. HOWEVER, THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE MDL GUID CONTINUES TO BE AGAINST IT. IF IT
WERE TO PRECIP MON AFTN, IT WOULD BE TOO WARM IN MANY AREAS FOR
SNOW.

THE NEXT SYS WILL THEN DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID-ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. MDL GUID CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYS AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NEWD THRU TUE. THE ECMWF MADE A PRONOUNCED EWD SHIFT THIS
CYCLE AND IS MUCH DRIER AS A RESULT ON TUE. THE GFS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FURTHER E, BUT REMAINS WETTER. THE CMC IS THE WETTEST
SOLN OF ALL. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS TEMPS. THE GFS HAS HAD
A WARM BIAS WITH BOTH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE SYSTEM EARLIER
THIS WEEK, BUT ITS TEMPS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. THAT WOULD
SUGGEST FOR AREAS FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR S AND EWD SFC TEMPS
WOULD BE ABV FREEZING ON TUE. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME DIABATIC
COOLING, IF THINGS GET WARM ENOUGH THERE COULD BE MIXING OR EVEN A
CHANGE OVER OR SNOW THAT FALLS AND DOESN`T ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY
DUG THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

BASED ON ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY THE EWD SHIFT OF THE
ECMWF (DESPITE ITS LESS THAN STELLAR PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER),
SEE NO REASON TO INCREASE SNOW AMTS AT THIS TIME AND WILL ONLY
MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

KEY TAKEAWAYS HERE, WHILE THERE IS STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS STORM, JANUARY 23RD THIS IS NOT. A COUPLE OF INCHES IS PSBL.
SOME PLACES CUD GET MORE, SOME LESS.

AS THIS LOW PULLS AWAY, CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND EVENTUALLY BUILD EWD. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MINOR CHANGES FOR THE 00Z TAFS. VFR THRU THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND THEN A FRESHENING E/NE WIND SUN
AFTERNOON. CI/CS THIS EVENING...DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MORE CI/CS
LATER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GUID CONTINUES TO KEEP THE
STRONG STORM OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, ANY WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO EASTERN TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON AND TUE...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS PD, AS A STORM
SYS MAY DEVELOP NR THE MID-ATLC CST AND PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES WRT
THE TRACK OF THIS SYS AS WELL AS TEMPS ON TUE. PRECIP SHUD BEGIN
AS RAIN LATER MON AND SHUD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MON NIGHT. ON TUE,
PRECIP COULD CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR SE, BUT HERE IS WHERE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY ONCE IT CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ALSO FOR SNOW AMTS.

WED...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
RISK FOR A BRIEF RESTRICTION WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...VFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
STARTING AT 1 PM SUNDAY, THOUGH THE WINDS WILL LAG A COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND,
THEREFORE WE DID NOT OPT TO RAISE TO A GLW ATTM. IT WILL EITHER BE
A VERY STRONG SCA OR MARGINAL GLW.

MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT COULD POTENTIAL REACH GALE FORCE LATE
WED INTO THU BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***WE ARE WATCHING TWO POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOOD EVENTS NEAR THE
MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE***

THE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
TO VARYING DEGREES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH TO BEGIN WITH, GIVEN THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY, REACHING
THEIR PEAKS DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDES.

FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN NJ COAST, WHERE THE GREATEST
COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. GIVEN THE SHORT
DURATION OF STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, THE WIND BACKING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH /MORE OFFSHORE/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE,
AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM TRACK, CONFIDENCE
REGARDING IMPACTS IS LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN
NJ COAST.

REGARDING THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE ROBUST AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST, WITH A
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THIS FLOW LATE
MONDAY, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY 48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW,
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO BEGIN WITH.
IN ADDITION, A MORE EASTERLY WIND WILL MAKE FOR A LONGER FETCH
IN TERMS OF BUILDING WAVE ACTION. BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL JET, SO AGAIN OUR CONFIDENCE REGARDING IMPACTS IS
LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 070235
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING FCST. MOSTLY CLR
SKIES ARE ACROSS THE AREA. OCCASIONAL CI/CS CLOUDS ACROSS THE DEL
VALLEY AREAS. TEMPERATURES BEHAVING AS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY UPPER
20S/LOW 30S ATTM WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW/MID 20S
BY MORNING...EXCEPT UPPER 20S IN THE METRO AREAS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER ANOTHER FROSTY START, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT THE
FORECAST TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE 2 SYSTEMS TO WATCH DURG THE EXTENDD PD. THE FIRST IS A
STRONG CSTL LOW THAT EMERGES OFF THE SERN CST ON SUN. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE MDL GUID KEEPS THIS LOW OFF THE ATLC CST, WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS IS A VERY STRONG LOW AND BEARS
WATCHING AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH ON MON. THE NAM AND CMC IS
IMPLYING A MORE WWD TRACK THAT WOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACTS ON
CSTL AREAS OF NJ. THE MORE WWD SOLN HAS SEEMINGLY WON OUT THIS
SEASON, WITH THE JAN BLIZZARD AND EVEN THE SYS EARLIER THIS WEEK,
SO THIS SOLN IS NOT TERRIBLY FAR FETCHED. HOWEVER, THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE MDL GUID CONTINUES TO BE AGAINST IT. IF IT
WERE TO PRECIP MON AFTN, IT WOULD BE TOO WARM IN MANY AREAS FOR
SNOW.

THE NEXT SYS WILL THEN DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID-ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. MDL GUID CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYS AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NEWD THRU TUE. THE ECMWF MADE A PRONOUNCED EWD SHIFT THIS
CYCLE AND IS MUCH DRIER AS A RESULT ON TUE. THE GFS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FURTHER E, BUT REMAINS WETTER. THE CMC IS THE WETTEST
SOLN OF ALL. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS TEMPS. THE GFS HAS HAD
A WARM BIAS WITH BOTH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE SYSTEM EARLIER
THIS WEEK, BUT ITS TEMPS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. THAT WOULD
SUGGEST FOR AREAS FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR S AND EWD SFC TEMPS
WOULD BE ABV FREEZING ON TUE. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME DIABATIC
COOLING, IF THINGS GET WARM ENOUGH THERE COULD BE MIXING OR EVEN A
CHANGE OVER OR SNOW THAT FALLS AND DOESN`T ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY
DUG THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

BASED ON ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY THE EWD SHIFT OF THE
ECMWF (DESPITE ITS LESS THAN STELLAR PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER),
SEE NO REASON TO INCREASE SNOW AMTS AT THIS TIME AND WILL ONLY
MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

KEY TAKEAWAYS HERE, WHILE THERE IS STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS STORM, JANUARY 23RD THIS IS NOT. A COUPLE OF INCHES IS PSBL.
SOME PLACES CUD GET MORE, SOME LESS.

AS THIS LOW PULLS AWAY, CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND EVENTUALLY BUILD EWD. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MINOR CHANGES FOR THE 00Z TAFS. VFR THRU THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND THEN A FRESHENING E/NE WIND SUN
AFTERNOON. CI/CS THIS EVENING...DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MORE CI/CS
LATER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GUID CONTINUES TO KEEP THE
STRONG STORM OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, ANY WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO EASTERN TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON AND TUE...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS PD, AS A STORM
SYS MAY DEVELOP NR THE MID-ATLC CST AND PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES WRT
THE TRACK OF THIS SYS AS WELL AS TEMPS ON TUE. PRECIP SHUD BEGIN
AS RAIN LATER MON AND SHUD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MON NIGHT. ON TUE,
PRECIP COULD CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR SE, BUT HERE IS WHERE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY ONCE IT CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ALSO FOR SNOW AMTS.

WED...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
RISK FOR A BRIEF RESTRICTION WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...VFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
STARTING AT 1 PM SUNDAY, THOUGH THE WINDS WILL LAG A COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND,
THEREFORE WE DID NOT OPT TO RAISE TO A GLW ATTM. IT WILL EITHER BE
A VERY STRONG SCA OR MARGINAL GLW.

MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT COULD POTENTIAL REACH GALE FORCE LATE
WED INTO THU BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***WE ARE WATCHING TWO POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOOD EVENTS NEAR THE
MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE***

THE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
TO VARYING DEGREES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH TO BEGIN WITH, GIVEN THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY, REACHING
THEIR PEAKS DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDES.

FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN NJ COAST, WHERE THE GREATEST
COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. GIVEN THE SHORT
DURATION OF STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, THE WIND BACKING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH /MORE OFFSHORE/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE,
AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM TRACK, CONFIDENCE
REGARDING IMPACTS IS LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN
NJ COAST.

REGARDING THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE ROBUST AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST, WITH A
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THIS FLOW LATE
MONDAY, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY 48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW,
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO BEGIN WITH.
IN ADDITION, A MORE EASTERLY WIND WILL MAKE FOR A LONGER FETCH
IN TERMS OF BUILDING WAVE ACTION. BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL JET, SO AGAIN OUR CONFIDENCE REGARDING IMPACTS IS
LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 070235
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING FCST. MOSTLY CLR
SKIES ARE ACROSS THE AREA. OCCASIONAL CI/CS CLOUDS ACROSS THE DEL
VALLEY AREAS. TEMPERATURES BEHAVING AS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY UPPER
20S/LOW 30S ATTM WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW/MID 20S
BY MORNING...EXCEPT UPPER 20S IN THE METRO AREAS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER ANOTHER FROSTY START, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT THE
FORECAST TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE 2 SYSTEMS TO WATCH DURG THE EXTENDD PD. THE FIRST IS A
STRONG CSTL LOW THAT EMERGES OFF THE SERN CST ON SUN. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE MDL GUID KEEPS THIS LOW OFF THE ATLC CST, WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS IS A VERY STRONG LOW AND BEARS
WATCHING AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH ON MON. THE NAM AND CMC IS
IMPLYING A MORE WWD TRACK THAT WOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACTS ON
CSTL AREAS OF NJ. THE MORE WWD SOLN HAS SEEMINGLY WON OUT THIS
SEASON, WITH THE JAN BLIZZARD AND EVEN THE SYS EARLIER THIS WEEK,
SO THIS SOLN IS NOT TERRIBLY FAR FETCHED. HOWEVER, THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE MDL GUID CONTINUES TO BE AGAINST IT. IF IT
WERE TO PRECIP MON AFTN, IT WOULD BE TOO WARM IN MANY AREAS FOR
SNOW.

THE NEXT SYS WILL THEN DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID-ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. MDL GUID CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYS AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NEWD THRU TUE. THE ECMWF MADE A PRONOUNCED EWD SHIFT THIS
CYCLE AND IS MUCH DRIER AS A RESULT ON TUE. THE GFS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FURTHER E, BUT REMAINS WETTER. THE CMC IS THE WETTEST
SOLN OF ALL. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS TEMPS. THE GFS HAS HAD
A WARM BIAS WITH BOTH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE SYSTEM EARLIER
THIS WEEK, BUT ITS TEMPS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. THAT WOULD
SUGGEST FOR AREAS FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR S AND EWD SFC TEMPS
WOULD BE ABV FREEZING ON TUE. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME DIABATIC
COOLING, IF THINGS GET WARM ENOUGH THERE COULD BE MIXING OR EVEN A
CHANGE OVER OR SNOW THAT FALLS AND DOESN`T ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY
DUG THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

BASED ON ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY THE EWD SHIFT OF THE
ECMWF (DESPITE ITS LESS THAN STELLAR PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER),
SEE NO REASON TO INCREASE SNOW AMTS AT THIS TIME AND WILL ONLY
MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

KEY TAKEAWAYS HERE, WHILE THERE IS STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS STORM, JANUARY 23RD THIS IS NOT. A COUPLE OF INCHES IS PSBL.
SOME PLACES CUD GET MORE, SOME LESS.

AS THIS LOW PULLS AWAY, CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND EVENTUALLY BUILD EWD. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MINOR CHANGES FOR THE 00Z TAFS. VFR THRU THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND THEN A FRESHENING E/NE WIND SUN
AFTERNOON. CI/CS THIS EVENING...DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MORE CI/CS
LATER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GUID CONTINUES TO KEEP THE
STRONG STORM OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, ANY WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO EASTERN TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON AND TUE...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS PD, AS A STORM
SYS MAY DEVELOP NR THE MID-ATLC CST AND PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES WRT
THE TRACK OF THIS SYS AS WELL AS TEMPS ON TUE. PRECIP SHUD BEGIN
AS RAIN LATER MON AND SHUD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MON NIGHT. ON TUE,
PRECIP COULD CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR SE, BUT HERE IS WHERE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY ONCE IT CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ALSO FOR SNOW AMTS.

WED...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
RISK FOR A BRIEF RESTRICTION WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...VFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
STARTING AT 1 PM SUNDAY, THOUGH THE WINDS WILL LAG A COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND,
THEREFORE WE DID NOT OPT TO RAISE TO A GLW ATTM. IT WILL EITHER BE
A VERY STRONG SCA OR MARGINAL GLW.

MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT COULD POTENTIAL REACH GALE FORCE LATE
WED INTO THU BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***WE ARE WATCHING TWO POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOOD EVENTS NEAR THE
MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE***

THE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
TO VARYING DEGREES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH TO BEGIN WITH, GIVEN THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY, REACHING
THEIR PEAKS DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDES.

FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN NJ COAST, WHERE THE GREATEST
COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. GIVEN THE SHORT
DURATION OF STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, THE WIND BACKING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH /MORE OFFSHORE/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE,
AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM TRACK, CONFIDENCE
REGARDING IMPACTS IS LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN
NJ COAST.

REGARDING THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE ROBUST AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST, WITH A
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THIS FLOW LATE
MONDAY, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY 48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW,
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO BEGIN WITH.
IN ADDITION, A MORE EASTERLY WIND WILL MAKE FOR A LONGER FETCH
IN TERMS OF BUILDING WAVE ACTION. BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL JET, SO AGAIN OUR CONFIDENCE REGARDING IMPACTS IS
LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 070235
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING FCST. MOSTLY CLR
SKIES ARE ACROSS THE AREA. OCCASIONAL CI/CS CLOUDS ACROSS THE DEL
VALLEY AREAS. TEMPERATURES BEHAVING AS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY UPPER
20S/LOW 30S ATTM WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW/MID 20S
BY MORNING...EXCEPT UPPER 20S IN THE METRO AREAS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER ANOTHER FROSTY START, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT THE
FORECAST TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE 2 SYSTEMS TO WATCH DURG THE EXTENDD PD. THE FIRST IS A
STRONG CSTL LOW THAT EMERGES OFF THE SERN CST ON SUN. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE MDL GUID KEEPS THIS LOW OFF THE ATLC CST, WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS IS A VERY STRONG LOW AND BEARS
WATCHING AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH ON MON. THE NAM AND CMC IS
IMPLYING A MORE WWD TRACK THAT WOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACTS ON
CSTL AREAS OF NJ. THE MORE WWD SOLN HAS SEEMINGLY WON OUT THIS
SEASON, WITH THE JAN BLIZZARD AND EVEN THE SYS EARLIER THIS WEEK,
SO THIS SOLN IS NOT TERRIBLY FAR FETCHED. HOWEVER, THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE MDL GUID CONTINUES TO BE AGAINST IT. IF IT
WERE TO PRECIP MON AFTN, IT WOULD BE TOO WARM IN MANY AREAS FOR
SNOW.

THE NEXT SYS WILL THEN DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID-ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. MDL GUID CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYS AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NEWD THRU TUE. THE ECMWF MADE A PRONOUNCED EWD SHIFT THIS
CYCLE AND IS MUCH DRIER AS A RESULT ON TUE. THE GFS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FURTHER E, BUT REMAINS WETTER. THE CMC IS THE WETTEST
SOLN OF ALL. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS TEMPS. THE GFS HAS HAD
A WARM BIAS WITH BOTH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE SYSTEM EARLIER
THIS WEEK, BUT ITS TEMPS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. THAT WOULD
SUGGEST FOR AREAS FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR S AND EWD SFC TEMPS
WOULD BE ABV FREEZING ON TUE. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME DIABATIC
COOLING, IF THINGS GET WARM ENOUGH THERE COULD BE MIXING OR EVEN A
CHANGE OVER OR SNOW THAT FALLS AND DOESN`T ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY
DUG THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

BASED ON ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY THE EWD SHIFT OF THE
ECMWF (DESPITE ITS LESS THAN STELLAR PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER),
SEE NO REASON TO INCREASE SNOW AMTS AT THIS TIME AND WILL ONLY
MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

KEY TAKEAWAYS HERE, WHILE THERE IS STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS STORM, JANUARY 23RD THIS IS NOT. A COUPLE OF INCHES IS PSBL.
SOME PLACES CUD GET MORE, SOME LESS.

AS THIS LOW PULLS AWAY, CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND EVENTUALLY BUILD EWD. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MINOR CHANGES FOR THE 00Z TAFS. VFR THRU THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND THEN A FRESHENING E/NE WIND SUN
AFTERNOON. CI/CS THIS EVENING...DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MORE CI/CS
LATER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GUID CONTINUES TO KEEP THE
STRONG STORM OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, ANY WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO EASTERN TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON AND TUE...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS PD, AS A STORM
SYS MAY DEVELOP NR THE MID-ATLC CST AND PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES WRT
THE TRACK OF THIS SYS AS WELL AS TEMPS ON TUE. PRECIP SHUD BEGIN
AS RAIN LATER MON AND SHUD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MON NIGHT. ON TUE,
PRECIP COULD CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR SE, BUT HERE IS WHERE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY ONCE IT CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ALSO FOR SNOW AMTS.

WED...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
RISK FOR A BRIEF RESTRICTION WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...VFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
STARTING AT 1 PM SUNDAY, THOUGH THE WINDS WILL LAG A COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND,
THEREFORE WE DID NOT OPT TO RAISE TO A GLW ATTM. IT WILL EITHER BE
A VERY STRONG SCA OR MARGINAL GLW.

MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT COULD POTENTIAL REACH GALE FORCE LATE
WED INTO THU BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***WE ARE WATCHING TWO POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOOD EVENTS NEAR THE
MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE***

THE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
TO VARYING DEGREES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH TO BEGIN WITH, GIVEN THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY, REACHING
THEIR PEAKS DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDES.

FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN NJ COAST, WHERE THE GREATEST
COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. GIVEN THE SHORT
DURATION OF STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, THE WIND BACKING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH /MORE OFFSHORE/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE,
AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM TRACK, CONFIDENCE
REGARDING IMPACTS IS LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN
NJ COAST.

REGARDING THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE ROBUST AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST, WITH A
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THIS FLOW LATE
MONDAY, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY 48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW,
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO BEGIN WITH.
IN ADDITION, A MORE EASTERLY WIND WILL MAKE FOR A LONGER FETCH
IN TERMS OF BUILDING WAVE ACTION. BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL JET, SO AGAIN OUR CONFIDENCE REGARDING IMPACTS IS
LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 070235
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
VERY FEW CHANGES WERE NEEDED FOR THE EVENING FCST. MOSTLY CLR
SKIES ARE ACROSS THE AREA. OCCASIONAL CI/CS CLOUDS ACROSS THE DEL
VALLEY AREAS. TEMPERATURES BEHAVING AS EXPECTED WITH MOSTLY UPPER
20S/LOW 30S ATTM WITH READINGS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOW/MID 20S
BY MORNING...EXCEPT UPPER 20S IN THE METRO AREAS. WINDS WILL
REMAIN LIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER ANOTHER FROSTY START, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT THE
FORECAST TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE 2 SYSTEMS TO WATCH DURG THE EXTENDD PD. THE FIRST IS A
STRONG CSTL LOW THAT EMERGES OFF THE SERN CST ON SUN. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE MDL GUID KEEPS THIS LOW OFF THE ATLC CST, WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS IS A VERY STRONG LOW AND BEARS
WATCHING AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH ON MON. THE NAM AND CMC IS
IMPLYING A MORE WWD TRACK THAT WOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACTS ON
CSTL AREAS OF NJ. THE MORE WWD SOLN HAS SEEMINGLY WON OUT THIS
SEASON, WITH THE JAN BLIZZARD AND EVEN THE SYS EARLIER THIS WEEK,
SO THIS SOLN IS NOT TERRIBLY FAR FETCHED. HOWEVER, THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE MDL GUID CONTINUES TO BE AGAINST IT. IF IT
WERE TO PRECIP MON AFTN, IT WOULD BE TOO WARM IN MANY AREAS FOR
SNOW.

THE NEXT SYS WILL THEN DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID-ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. MDL GUID CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYS AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NEWD THRU TUE. THE ECMWF MADE A PRONOUNCED EWD SHIFT THIS
CYCLE AND IS MUCH DRIER AS A RESULT ON TUE. THE GFS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FURTHER E, BUT REMAINS WETTER. THE CMC IS THE WETTEST
SOLN OF ALL. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS TEMPS. THE GFS HAS HAD
A WARM BIAS WITH BOTH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE SYSTEM EARLIER
THIS WEEK, BUT ITS TEMPS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. THAT WOULD
SUGGEST FOR AREAS FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR S AND EWD SFC TEMPS
WOULD BE ABV FREEZING ON TUE. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME DIABATIC
COOLING, IF THINGS GET WARM ENOUGH THERE COULD BE MIXING OR EVEN A
CHANGE OVER OR SNOW THAT FALLS AND DOESN`T ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY
DUG THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

BASED ON ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY THE EWD SHIFT OF THE
ECMWF (DESPITE ITS LESS THAN STELLAR PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER),
SEE NO REASON TO INCREASE SNOW AMTS AT THIS TIME AND WILL ONLY
MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

KEY TAKEAWAYS HERE, WHILE THERE IS STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS STORM, JANUARY 23RD THIS IS NOT. A COUPLE OF INCHES IS PSBL.
SOME PLACES CUD GET MORE, SOME LESS.

AS THIS LOW PULLS AWAY, CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND EVENTUALLY BUILD EWD. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MINOR CHANGES FOR THE 00Z TAFS. VFR THRU THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND THEN A FRESHENING E/NE WIND SUN
AFTERNOON. CI/CS THIS EVENING...DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MORE CI/CS
LATER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GUID CONTINUES TO KEEP THE
STRONG STORM OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, ANY WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO EASTERN TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON AND TUE...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS PD, AS A STORM
SYS MAY DEVELOP NR THE MID-ATLC CST AND PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES WRT
THE TRACK OF THIS SYS AS WELL AS TEMPS ON TUE. PRECIP SHUD BEGIN
AS RAIN LATER MON AND SHUD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MON NIGHT. ON TUE,
PRECIP COULD CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR SE, BUT HERE IS WHERE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY ONCE IT CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ALSO FOR SNOW AMTS.

WED...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
RISK FOR A BRIEF RESTRICTION WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...VFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
STARTING AT 1 PM SUNDAY, THOUGH THE WINDS WILL LAG A COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND,
THEREFORE WE DID NOT OPT TO RAISE TO A GLW ATTM. IT WILL EITHER BE
A VERY STRONG SCA OR MARGINAL GLW.

MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT COULD POTENTIAL REACH GALE FORCE LATE
WED INTO THU BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***WE ARE WATCHING TWO POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOOD EVENTS NEAR THE
MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE***

THE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
TO VARYING DEGREES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH TO BEGIN WITH, GIVEN THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY, REACHING
THEIR PEAKS DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDES.

FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN NJ COAST, WHERE THE GREATEST
COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. GIVEN THE SHORT
DURATION OF STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, THE WIND BACKING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH /MORE OFFSHORE/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE,
AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM TRACK, CONFIDENCE
REGARDING IMPACTS IS LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN
NJ COAST.

REGARDING THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE ROBUST AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST, WITH A
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THIS FLOW LATE
MONDAY, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY 48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW,
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO BEGIN WITH.
IN ADDITION, A MORE EASTERLY WIND WILL MAKE FOR A LONGER FETCH
IN TERMS OF BUILDING WAVE ACTION. BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL JET, SO AGAIN OUR CONFIDENCE REGARDING IMPACTS IS
LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 062331
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
631 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY. OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS, NOT MUCH TO AFFECT THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVERNIGHT AND COOL QUITE EFFICIENTLY.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER FROSTY MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER ANOTHER FROSTY START, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT THE
FORECAST TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE 2 SYSTEMS TO WATCH DURG THE EXTENDD PD. THE FIRST IS A
STRONG CSTL LOW THAT EMERGES OFF THE SERN CST ON SUN. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE MDL GUID KEEPS THIS LOW OFF THE ATLC CST, WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS IS A VERY STRONG LOW AND BEARS
WATCHING AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH ON MON. THE NAM AND CMC IS
IMPLYING A MORE WWD TRACK THAT WOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACTS ON
CSTL AREAS OF NJ. THE MORE WWD SOLN HAS SEEMINGLY WON OUT THIS
SEASON, WITH THE JAN BLIZZARD AND EVEN THE SYS EARLIER THIS WEEK,
SO THIS SOLN IS NOT TERRIBLY FAR FETCHED. HOWEVER, THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE MDL GUID CONTINUES TO BE AGAINST IT. IF IT
WERE TO PRECIP MON AFTN, IT WOULD BE TOO WARM IN MANY AREAS FOR
SNOW.

THE NEXT SYS WILL THEN DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID-ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. MDL GUID CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYS AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NEWD THRU TUE. THE ECMWF MADE A PRONOUNCED EWD SHIFT THIS
CYCLE AND IS MUCH DRIER AS A RESULT ON TUE. THE GFS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FURTHER E, BUT REMAINS WETTER. THE CMC IS THE WETTEST
SOLN OF ALL. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS TEMPS. THE GFS HAS HAD
A WARM BIAS WITH BOTH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE SYSTEM EARLIER
THIS WEEK, BUT ITS TEMPS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. THAT WOULD
SUGGEST FOR AREAS FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR S AND EWD SFC TEMPS
WOULD BE ABV FREEZING ON TUE. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME DIABATIC
COOLING, IF THINGS GET WARM ENOUGH THERE COULD BE MIXING OR EVEN A
CHANGE OVER OR SNOW THAT FALLS AND DOESN`T ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY
DUG THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

BASED ON ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY THE EWD SHIFT OF THE
ECMWF (DESPITE ITS LESS THAN STELLAR PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER),
SEE NO REASON TO INCREASE SNOW AMTS AT THIS TIME AND WILL ONLY
MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

KEY TAKEAWAYS HERE, WHILE THERE IS STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS STORM, JANUARY 23RD THIS IS NOT. A COUPLE OF INCHES IS PSBL.
SOME PLACES CUD GET MORE, SOME LESS.

AS THIS LOW PULLS AWAY, CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND EVENTUALLY BUILD EWD. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MINOR CHANGES FOR THE 00Z TAFS. VFR THRU THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND THEN A FRESHENING E/NE WIND SUN
AFTERNOON. CI/CS THIS EVENING...DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MORE CI/CS
LATER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GUID CONTINUES TO KEEP THE
STRONG STORM OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, ANY WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO EASTERN TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON AND TUE...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS PD, AS A STORM
SYS MAY DEVELOP NR THE MID-ATLC CST AND PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES WRT
THE TRACK OF THIS SYS AS WELL AS TEMPS ON TUE. PRECIP SHUD BEGIN
AS RAIN LATER MON AND SHUD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MON NIGHT. ON TUE,
PRECIP COULD CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR SE, BUT HERE IS WHERE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY ONCE IT CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ALSO FOR SNOW AMTS.

WED...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
RISK FOR A BRIEF RESTRICTION WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...VFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
STARTING AT 1 PM SUNDAY, THOUGH THE WINDS WILL LAG A COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND,
THEREFORE WE DID NOT OPT TO RAISE TO A GLW ATTM. IT WILL EITHER BE
A VERY STRONG SCA OR MARGINAL GLW.

MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT COULD POTENTIAL REACH GALE FORCE LATE
WED INTO THU BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***WE ARE WATCHING TWO POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOOD EVENTS NEAR THE
MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE***

THE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
TO VARYING DEGREES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH TO BEGIN WITH, GIVEN THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY, REACHING
THEIR PEAKS DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDES.

FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN NJ COAST, WHERE THE GREATEST
COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. GIVEN THE SHORT
DURATION OF STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, THE WIND BACKING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH /MORE OFFSHORE/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE,
AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM TRACK, CONFIDENCE
REGARDING IMPACTS IS LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN
NJ COAST.

REGARDING THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE ROBUST AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST, WITH A
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THIS FLOW LATE
MONDAY, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY 48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW,
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO BEGIN WITH.
IN ADDITION, A MORE EASTERLY WIND WILL MAKE FOR A LONGER FETCH
IN TERMS OF BUILDING WAVE ACTION. BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL JET, SO AGAIN OUR CONFIDENCE REGARDING IMPACTS IS
LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 062331
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
631 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY. OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS, NOT MUCH TO AFFECT THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVERNIGHT AND COOL QUITE EFFICIENTLY.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER FROSTY MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER ANOTHER FROSTY START, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT THE
FORECAST TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE 2 SYSTEMS TO WATCH DURG THE EXTENDD PD. THE FIRST IS A
STRONG CSTL LOW THAT EMERGES OFF THE SERN CST ON SUN. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE MDL GUID KEEPS THIS LOW OFF THE ATLC CST, WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS IS A VERY STRONG LOW AND BEARS
WATCHING AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH ON MON. THE NAM AND CMC IS
IMPLYING A MORE WWD TRACK THAT WOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACTS ON
CSTL AREAS OF NJ. THE MORE WWD SOLN HAS SEEMINGLY WON OUT THIS
SEASON, WITH THE JAN BLIZZARD AND EVEN THE SYS EARLIER THIS WEEK,
SO THIS SOLN IS NOT TERRIBLY FAR FETCHED. HOWEVER, THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE MDL GUID CONTINUES TO BE AGAINST IT. IF IT
WERE TO PRECIP MON AFTN, IT WOULD BE TOO WARM IN MANY AREAS FOR
SNOW.

THE NEXT SYS WILL THEN DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID-ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. MDL GUID CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYS AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NEWD THRU TUE. THE ECMWF MADE A PRONOUNCED EWD SHIFT THIS
CYCLE AND IS MUCH DRIER AS A RESULT ON TUE. THE GFS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FURTHER E, BUT REMAINS WETTER. THE CMC IS THE WETTEST
SOLN OF ALL. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS TEMPS. THE GFS HAS HAD
A WARM BIAS WITH BOTH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE SYSTEM EARLIER
THIS WEEK, BUT ITS TEMPS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. THAT WOULD
SUGGEST FOR AREAS FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR S AND EWD SFC TEMPS
WOULD BE ABV FREEZING ON TUE. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME DIABATIC
COOLING, IF THINGS GET WARM ENOUGH THERE COULD BE MIXING OR EVEN A
CHANGE OVER OR SNOW THAT FALLS AND DOESN`T ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY
DUG THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

BASED ON ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY THE EWD SHIFT OF THE
ECMWF (DESPITE ITS LESS THAN STELLAR PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER),
SEE NO REASON TO INCREASE SNOW AMTS AT THIS TIME AND WILL ONLY
MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

KEY TAKEAWAYS HERE, WHILE THERE IS STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS STORM, JANUARY 23RD THIS IS NOT. A COUPLE OF INCHES IS PSBL.
SOME PLACES CUD GET MORE, SOME LESS.

AS THIS LOW PULLS AWAY, CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND EVENTUALLY BUILD EWD. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MINOR CHANGES FOR THE 00Z TAFS. VFR THRU THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND THEN A FRESHENING E/NE WIND SUN
AFTERNOON. CI/CS THIS EVENING...DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MORE CI/CS
LATER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GUID CONTINUES TO KEEP THE
STRONG STORM OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, ANY WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO EASTERN TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON AND TUE...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS PD, AS A STORM
SYS MAY DEVELOP NR THE MID-ATLC CST AND PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES WRT
THE TRACK OF THIS SYS AS WELL AS TEMPS ON TUE. PRECIP SHUD BEGIN
AS RAIN LATER MON AND SHUD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MON NIGHT. ON TUE,
PRECIP COULD CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR SE, BUT HERE IS WHERE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY ONCE IT CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ALSO FOR SNOW AMTS.

WED...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
RISK FOR A BRIEF RESTRICTION WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...VFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
STARTING AT 1 PM SUNDAY, THOUGH THE WINDS WILL LAG A COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND,
THEREFORE WE DID NOT OPT TO RAISE TO A GLW ATTM. IT WILL EITHER BE
A VERY STRONG SCA OR MARGINAL GLW.

MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT COULD POTENTIAL REACH GALE FORCE LATE
WED INTO THU BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***WE ARE WATCHING TWO POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOOD EVENTS NEAR THE
MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE***

THE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
TO VARYING DEGREES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH TO BEGIN WITH, GIVEN THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY, REACHING
THEIR PEAKS DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDES.

FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN NJ COAST, WHERE THE GREATEST
COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. GIVEN THE SHORT
DURATION OF STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, THE WIND BACKING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH /MORE OFFSHORE/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE,
AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM TRACK, CONFIDENCE
REGARDING IMPACTS IS LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN
NJ COAST.

REGARDING THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE ROBUST AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST, WITH A
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THIS FLOW LATE
MONDAY, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY 48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW,
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO BEGIN WITH.
IN ADDITION, A MORE EASTERLY WIND WILL MAKE FOR A LONGER FETCH
IN TERMS OF BUILDING WAVE ACTION. BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL JET, SO AGAIN OUR CONFIDENCE REGARDING IMPACTS IS
LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 062331
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
631 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY. OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS, NOT MUCH TO AFFECT THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVERNIGHT AND COOL QUITE EFFICIENTLY.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER FROSTY MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER ANOTHER FROSTY START, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT THE
FORECAST TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE 2 SYSTEMS TO WATCH DURG THE EXTENDD PD. THE FIRST IS A
STRONG CSTL LOW THAT EMERGES OFF THE SERN CST ON SUN. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE MDL GUID KEEPS THIS LOW OFF THE ATLC CST, WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS IS A VERY STRONG LOW AND BEARS
WATCHING AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH ON MON. THE NAM AND CMC IS
IMPLYING A MORE WWD TRACK THAT WOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACTS ON
CSTL AREAS OF NJ. THE MORE WWD SOLN HAS SEEMINGLY WON OUT THIS
SEASON, WITH THE JAN BLIZZARD AND EVEN THE SYS EARLIER THIS WEEK,
SO THIS SOLN IS NOT TERRIBLY FAR FETCHED. HOWEVER, THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE MDL GUID CONTINUES TO BE AGAINST IT. IF IT
WERE TO PRECIP MON AFTN, IT WOULD BE TOO WARM IN MANY AREAS FOR
SNOW.

THE NEXT SYS WILL THEN DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID-ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. MDL GUID CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYS AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NEWD THRU TUE. THE ECMWF MADE A PRONOUNCED EWD SHIFT THIS
CYCLE AND IS MUCH DRIER AS A RESULT ON TUE. THE GFS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FURTHER E, BUT REMAINS WETTER. THE CMC IS THE WETTEST
SOLN OF ALL. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS TEMPS. THE GFS HAS HAD
A WARM BIAS WITH BOTH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE SYSTEM EARLIER
THIS WEEK, BUT ITS TEMPS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. THAT WOULD
SUGGEST FOR AREAS FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR S AND EWD SFC TEMPS
WOULD BE ABV FREEZING ON TUE. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME DIABATIC
COOLING, IF THINGS GET WARM ENOUGH THERE COULD BE MIXING OR EVEN A
CHANGE OVER OR SNOW THAT FALLS AND DOESN`T ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY
DUG THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

BASED ON ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY THE EWD SHIFT OF THE
ECMWF (DESPITE ITS LESS THAN STELLAR PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER),
SEE NO REASON TO INCREASE SNOW AMTS AT THIS TIME AND WILL ONLY
MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

KEY TAKEAWAYS HERE, WHILE THERE IS STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS STORM, JANUARY 23RD THIS IS NOT. A COUPLE OF INCHES IS PSBL.
SOME PLACES CUD GET MORE, SOME LESS.

AS THIS LOW PULLS AWAY, CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND EVENTUALLY BUILD EWD. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MINOR CHANGES FOR THE 00Z TAFS. VFR THRU THE PERIOD WITH LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT AND THEN A FRESHENING E/NE WIND SUN
AFTERNOON. CI/CS THIS EVENING...DECREASING OVERNIGHT. MORE CI/CS
LATER SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GUID CONTINUES TO KEEP THE
STRONG STORM OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, ANY WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO EASTERN TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON AND TUE...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS PD, AS A STORM
SYS MAY DEVELOP NR THE MID-ATLC CST AND PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES WRT
THE TRACK OF THIS SYS AS WELL AS TEMPS ON TUE. PRECIP SHUD BEGIN
AS RAIN LATER MON AND SHUD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MON NIGHT. ON TUE,
PRECIP COULD CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR SE, BUT HERE IS WHERE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY ONCE IT CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ALSO FOR SNOW AMTS.

WED...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
RISK FOR A BRIEF RESTRICTION WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...VFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
STARTING AT 1 PM SUNDAY, THOUGH THE WINDS WILL LAG A COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND,
THEREFORE WE DID NOT OPT TO RAISE TO A GLW ATTM. IT WILL EITHER BE
A VERY STRONG SCA OR MARGINAL GLW.

MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT COULD POTENTIAL REACH GALE FORCE LATE
WED INTO THU BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***WE ARE WATCHING TWO POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOOD EVENTS NEAR THE
MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE***

THE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
TO VARYING DEGREES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH TO BEGIN WITH, GIVEN THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY, REACHING
THEIR PEAKS DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDES.

FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN NJ COAST, WHERE THE GREATEST
COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. GIVEN THE SHORT
DURATION OF STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, THE WIND BACKING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH /MORE OFFSHORE/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE,
AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM TRACK, CONFIDENCE
REGARDING IMPACTS IS LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN
NJ COAST.

REGARDING THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE ROBUST AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST, WITH A
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THIS FLOW LATE
MONDAY, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY 48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW,
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO BEGIN WITH.
IN ADDITION, A MORE EASTERLY WIND WILL MAKE FOR A LONGER FETCH
IN TERMS OF BUILDING WAVE ACTION. BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL JET, SO AGAIN OUR CONFIDENCE REGARDING IMPACTS IS
LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 062125
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
425 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY. OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS, NOT MUCH TO AFFECT THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVERNIGHT AND COOL QUITE EFFICIENTLY.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER FROSTY MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER ANOTHER FROSTY START, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT THE
FORECAST TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE 2 SYSTEMS TO WATCH DURG THE EXTENDD PD. THE FIRST IS A
STRONG CSTL LOW THAT EMERGES OFF THE SERN CST ON SUN. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE MDL GUID KEEPS THIS LOW OFF THE ATLC CST, WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS IS A VERY STRONG LOW AND BEARS
WATCHING AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH ON MON. THE NAM AND CMC IS
IMPLYING A MORE WWD TRACK THAT WOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACTS ON
CSTL AREAS OF NJ. THE MORE WWD SOLN HAS SEEMINGLY WON OUT THIS
SEASON, WITH THE JAN BLIZZARD AND EVEN THE SYS EARLIER THIS WEEK,
SO THIS SOLN IS NOT TERRIBLY FAR FETCHED. HOWEVER, THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE MDL GUID CONTINUES TO BE AGAINST IT. IF IT
WERE TO PRECIP MON AFTN, IT WOULD BE TOO WARM IN MANY AREAS FOR
SNOW.

THE NEXT SYS WILL THEN DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID-ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. MDL GUID CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYS AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NEWD THRU TUE. THE ECMWF MADE A PRONOUNCED EWD SHIFT THIS
CYCLE AND IS MUCH DRIER AS A RESULT ON TUE. THE GFS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FURTHER E, BUT REMAINS WETTER. THE CMC IS THE WETTEST
SOLN OF ALL. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS TEMPS. THE GFS HAS HAD
A WARM BIAS WITH BOTH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE SYSTEM EARLIER
THIS WEEK, BUT ITS TEMPS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. THAT WOULD
SUGGEST FOR AREAS FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR S AND EWD SFC TEMPS
WOULD BE ABV FREEZING ON TUE. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME DIABATIC
COOLING, IF THINGS GET WARM ENOUGH THERE COULD BE MIXING OR EVEN A
CHANGE OVER OR SNOW THAT FALLS AND DOESN`T ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY
DUG THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

BASED ON ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY THE EWD SHIFT OF THE
ECMWF (DESPITE ITS LESS THAN STELLAR PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER),
SEE NO REASON TO INCREASE SNOW AMTS AT THIS TIME AND WILL ONLY
MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

KEY TAKEAWAYS HERE, WHILE THERE IS STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS STORM, JANUARY 23RD THIS IS NOT. A COUPLE OF INCHES IS PSBL.
SOME PLACES CUD GET MORE, SOME LESS.

AS THIS LOW PULLS AWAY, CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND EVENTUALLY BUILD EWD. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY CIRRUS
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN
AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH, BUT AGAIN REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GUID CONTINUES TO KEEP THE
STRONG STORM OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, ANY WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO EASTERN TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON AND TUE...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS PD, AS A STORM
SYS MAY DEVELOP NR THE MID-ATLC CST AND PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES WRT
THE TRACK OF THIS SYS AS WELL AS TEMPS ON TUE. PRECIP SHUD BEGIN
AS RAIN LATER MON AND SHUD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MON NIGHT. ON TUE,
PRECIP COULD CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR SE, BUT HERE IS WHERE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY ONCE IT CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ALSO FOR SNOW AMTS.

WED...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
RISK FOR A BRIEF RESTRICTION WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...VFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
STARTING AT 1 PM SUNDAY, THOUGH THE WINDS WILL LAG A COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND,
THEREFORE WE DID NOT OPT TO RAISE TO A GLW ATTM. IT WILL EITHER BE
A VERY STRONG SCA OR MARGINAL GLW.

MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT COULD POTENTIAL REACH GALE FORCE LATE
WED INTO THU BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
***WE ARE WATCHING TWO POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOOD EVENTS NEAR THE
MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE***

THE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
TO VARYING DEGREES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH TO BEGIN WITH, GIVEN THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY, REACHING
THEIR PEAKS DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDES.

FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN NJ COAST, WHERE THE GREATEST
COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. GIVEN THE SHORT
DURATION OF STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, THE WIND BACKING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH /MORE OFFSHORE/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE,
AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM TRACK, CONFIDENCE
REGARDING IMPACTS IS LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN
NJ COAST.

REGARDING THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE ROBUST AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST, WITH A
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THIS FLOW LATE
MONDAY, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY 48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW,
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO BEGIN WITH.
IN ADDITION, A MORE EASTERLY WIND WILL MAKE FOR A LONGER FETCH
IN TERMS OF BUILDING WAVE ACTION. BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL JET, SO AGAIN OUR CONFIDENCE REGARDING IMPACTS IS
LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANCK




000
FXUS61 KPHI 062048
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY. OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS, NOT MUCH TO AFFECT THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVERNIGHT AND COOL QUITE EFFICIENTLY.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER FROSTY MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER ANOTHER FROSTY START, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT THE
FORECAST TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE 2 SYSTEMS TO WATCH DURG THE EXTENDD PD. THE FIRST IS A
STRONG CSTL LOW THAT EMERGES OFF THE SERN CST ON SUN. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE MDL GUID KEEPS THIS LOW OFF THE ATLC CST, WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS IS A VERY STRONG LOW AND BEARS
WATCHING AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH ON MON. THE NAM AND CMC IS
IMPLYING A MORE WWD TRACK THAT WOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACTS ON
CSTL AREAS OF NJ. THE MORE WWD SOLN HAS SEEMINGLY WON OUT THIS
SEASON, WITH THE JAN BLIZZARD AND EVEN THE SYS EARLIER THIS WEEK,
SO THIS SOLN IS NOT TERRIBLY FAR FETCHED. HOWEVER, THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE MDL GUID CONTINUES TO BE AGAINST IT. IF IT
WERE TO PRECIP MON AFTN, IT WOULD BE TOO WARM IN MANY AREAS FOR
SNOW.

THE NEXT SYS WILL THEN DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID-ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. MDL GUID CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYS AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NEWD THRU TUE. THE ECMWF MADE A PRONOUNCED EWD SHIFT THIS
CYCLE AND IS MUCH DRIER AS A RESULT ON TUE. THE GFS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FURTHER E, BUT REMAINS WETTER. THE CMC IS THE WETTEST
SOLN OF ALL. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS TEMPS. THE GFS HAS HAD
A WARM BIAS WITH BOTH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE SYSTEM EARLIER
THIS WEEK, BUT ITS TEMPS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. THAT WOULD
SUGGEST FOR AREAS FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR S AND EWD SFC TEMPS
WOULD BE ABV FREEZING ON TUE. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME DIABATIC
COOLING, IF THINGS GET WARM ENOUGH THERE COULD BE MIXING OR EVEN A
CHANGE OVER OR SNOW THAT FALLS AND DOESN`T ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY
DUG THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

BASED ON ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY THE EWD SHIFT OF THE
ECMWF (DESPITE ITS LESS THAN STELLAR PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER),
SEE NO REASON TO INCREASE SNOW AMTS AT THIS TIME AND WILL ONLY
MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

KEY TAKEAWAYS HERE, WHILE THERE IS STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS STORM, JANUARY 23RD THIS IS NOT. A COUPLE OF INCHES IS PSBL.
SOME PLACES CUD GET MORE, SOME LESS.

AS THIS LOW PULLS AWAY, CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND EVENTUALLY BUILD EWD. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY CIRRUS
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN
AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH, BUT AGAIN REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GUID CONTINUES TO KEEP THE
STRONG STORM OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, ANY WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO EASTERN TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON AND TUE...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS PD, AS A STORM
SYS MAY DEVELOP NR THE MID-ATLC CST AND PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES WRT
THE TRACK OF THIS SYS AS WELL AS TEMPS ON TUE. PRECIP SHUD BEGIN
AS RAIN LATER MON AND SHUD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MON NIGHT. ON TUE,
PRECIP COULD CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR SE, BUT HERE IS WHERE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY ONCE IT CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ALSO FOR SNOW AMTS.

WED...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
RISK FOR A BRIEF RESTRICTION WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...VFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
STARTING AT 1 PM SUNDAY, THOUGH THE WINDS WILL LAG A COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND,
THEREFORE WE DID NOT OPT TO RAISE TO A GLW ATTM. IT WILL EITHER BE
A VERY STRONG SCA OR MARGINAL GLW.

MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT COULD POTENTIAL REACH GALE FORCE LATE
WED INTO THU BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
     WE ARE WATCHING TWO POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOOD EVENTS NEAR
THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE..

THE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
TO VARYING DEGREES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH TO BEGIN WITH, GIVEN THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY, REACHING
THEIR PEAKS DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDES.

FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN NJ COAST, WHERE THE GREATEST
COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. GIVEN THE SHORT
DURATION OF STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, THE WIND BACKING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH /MORE OFFSHORE/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE,
AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM TRACK, CONFIDENCE
REGARDING IMPACTS IS LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN
NJ COAST.

REGARDING THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE ROBUST AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST, WITH A
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THIS FLOW LATE
MONDAY, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY 48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW,
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO BEGIN WITH.
IN ADDITION, A MORE EASTERLY WIND WILL MAKE FOR A LONGER FETCH
IN TERMS OF BUILDING WAVE ACTION. BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL JET, SO AGAIN OUR CONFIDENCE REGARDING IMPACTS IS
LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 062048
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY. OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS, NOT MUCH TO AFFECT THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVERNIGHT AND COOL QUITE EFFICIENTLY.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER FROSTY MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER ANOTHER FROSTY START, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT THE
FORECAST TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE 2 SYSTEMS TO WATCH DURG THE EXTENDD PD. THE FIRST IS A
STRONG CSTL LOW THAT EMERGES OFF THE SERN CST ON SUN. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE MDL GUID KEEPS THIS LOW OFF THE ATLC CST, WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS IS A VERY STRONG LOW AND BEARS
WATCHING AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH ON MON. THE NAM AND CMC IS
IMPLYING A MORE WWD TRACK THAT WOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACTS ON
CSTL AREAS OF NJ. THE MORE WWD SOLN HAS SEEMINGLY WON OUT THIS
SEASON, WITH THE JAN BLIZZARD AND EVEN THE SYS EARLIER THIS WEEK,
SO THIS SOLN IS NOT TERRIBLY FAR FETCHED. HOWEVER, THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE MDL GUID CONTINUES TO BE AGAINST IT. IF IT
WERE TO PRECIP MON AFTN, IT WOULD BE TOO WARM IN MANY AREAS FOR
SNOW.

THE NEXT SYS WILL THEN DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID-ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. MDL GUID CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYS AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NEWD THRU TUE. THE ECMWF MADE A PRONOUNCED EWD SHIFT THIS
CYCLE AND IS MUCH DRIER AS A RESULT ON TUE. THE GFS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FURTHER E, BUT REMAINS WETTER. THE CMC IS THE WETTEST
SOLN OF ALL. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS TEMPS. THE GFS HAS HAD
A WARM BIAS WITH BOTH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE SYSTEM EARLIER
THIS WEEK, BUT ITS TEMPS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. THAT WOULD
SUGGEST FOR AREAS FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR S AND EWD SFC TEMPS
WOULD BE ABV FREEZING ON TUE. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME DIABATIC
COOLING, IF THINGS GET WARM ENOUGH THERE COULD BE MIXING OR EVEN A
CHANGE OVER OR SNOW THAT FALLS AND DOESN`T ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY
DUG THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

BASED ON ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY THE EWD SHIFT OF THE
ECMWF (DESPITE ITS LESS THAN STELLAR PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER),
SEE NO REASON TO INCREASE SNOW AMTS AT THIS TIME AND WILL ONLY
MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

KEY TAKEAWAYS HERE, WHILE THERE IS STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS STORM, JANUARY 23RD THIS IS NOT. A COUPLE OF INCHES IS PSBL.
SOME PLACES CUD GET MORE, SOME LESS.

AS THIS LOW PULLS AWAY, CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND EVENTUALLY BUILD EWD. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY CIRRUS
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN
AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH, BUT AGAIN REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GUID CONTINUES TO KEEP THE
STRONG STORM OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, ANY WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO EASTERN TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON AND TUE...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS PD, AS A STORM
SYS MAY DEVELOP NR THE MID-ATLC CST AND PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES WRT
THE TRACK OF THIS SYS AS WELL AS TEMPS ON TUE. PRECIP SHUD BEGIN
AS RAIN LATER MON AND SHUD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MON NIGHT. ON TUE,
PRECIP COULD CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR SE, BUT HERE IS WHERE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY ONCE IT CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ALSO FOR SNOW AMTS.

WED...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
RISK FOR A BRIEF RESTRICTION WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...VFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
STARTING AT 1 PM SUNDAY, THOUGH THE WINDS WILL LAG A COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND,
THEREFORE WE DID NOT OPT TO RAISE TO A GLW ATTM. IT WILL EITHER BE
A VERY STRONG SCA OR MARGINAL GLW.

MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT COULD POTENTIAL REACH GALE FORCE LATE
WED INTO THU BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
     WE ARE WATCHING TWO POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOOD EVENTS NEAR
THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE..

THE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
TO VARYING DEGREES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH TO BEGIN WITH, GIVEN THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY, REACHING
THEIR PEAKS DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDES.

FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN NJ COAST, WHERE THE GREATEST
COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. GIVEN THE SHORT
DURATION OF STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, THE WIND BACKING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH /MORE OFFSHORE/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE,
AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM TRACK, CONFIDENCE
REGARDING IMPACTS IS LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN
NJ COAST.

REGARDING THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE ROBUST AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST, WITH A
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THIS FLOW LATE
MONDAY, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY 48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW,
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO BEGIN WITH.
IN ADDITION, A MORE EASTERLY WIND WILL MAKE FOR A LONGER FETCH
IN TERMS OF BUILDING WAVE ACTION. BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL JET, SO AGAIN OUR CONFIDENCE REGARDING IMPACTS IS
LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 062048
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY. OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS, NOT MUCH TO AFFECT THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVERNIGHT AND COOL QUITE EFFICIENTLY.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER FROSTY MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER ANOTHER FROSTY START, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT THE
FORECAST TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE 2 SYSTEMS TO WATCH DURG THE EXTENDD PD. THE FIRST IS A
STRONG CSTL LOW THAT EMERGES OFF THE SERN CST ON SUN. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE MDL GUID KEEPS THIS LOW OFF THE ATLC CST, WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS IS A VERY STRONG LOW AND BEARS
WATCHING AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH ON MON. THE NAM AND CMC IS
IMPLYING A MORE WWD TRACK THAT WOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACTS ON
CSTL AREAS OF NJ. THE MORE WWD SOLN HAS SEEMINGLY WON OUT THIS
SEASON, WITH THE JAN BLIZZARD AND EVEN THE SYS EARLIER THIS WEEK,
SO THIS SOLN IS NOT TERRIBLY FAR FETCHED. HOWEVER, THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE MDL GUID CONTINUES TO BE AGAINST IT. IF IT
WERE TO PRECIP MON AFTN, IT WOULD BE TOO WARM IN MANY AREAS FOR
SNOW.

THE NEXT SYS WILL THEN DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID-ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. MDL GUID CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYS AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NEWD THRU TUE. THE ECMWF MADE A PRONOUNCED EWD SHIFT THIS
CYCLE AND IS MUCH DRIER AS A RESULT ON TUE. THE GFS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FURTHER E, BUT REMAINS WETTER. THE CMC IS THE WETTEST
SOLN OF ALL. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS TEMPS. THE GFS HAS HAD
A WARM BIAS WITH BOTH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE SYSTEM EARLIER
THIS WEEK, BUT ITS TEMPS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. THAT WOULD
SUGGEST FOR AREAS FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR S AND EWD SFC TEMPS
WOULD BE ABV FREEZING ON TUE. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME DIABATIC
COOLING, IF THINGS GET WARM ENOUGH THERE COULD BE MIXING OR EVEN A
CHANGE OVER OR SNOW THAT FALLS AND DOESN`T ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY
DUG THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

BASED ON ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY THE EWD SHIFT OF THE
ECMWF (DESPITE ITS LESS THAN STELLAR PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER),
SEE NO REASON TO INCREASE SNOW AMTS AT THIS TIME AND WILL ONLY
MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

KEY TAKEAWAYS HERE, WHILE THERE IS STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS STORM, JANUARY 23RD THIS IS NOT. A COUPLE OF INCHES IS PSBL.
SOME PLACES CUD GET MORE, SOME LESS.

AS THIS LOW PULLS AWAY, CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND EVENTUALLY BUILD EWD. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY CIRRUS
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN
AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH, BUT AGAIN REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GUID CONTINUES TO KEEP THE
STRONG STORM OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, ANY WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO EASTERN TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON AND TUE...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS PD, AS A STORM
SYS MAY DEVELOP NR THE MID-ATLC CST AND PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES WRT
THE TRACK OF THIS SYS AS WELL AS TEMPS ON TUE. PRECIP SHUD BEGIN
AS RAIN LATER MON AND SHUD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MON NIGHT. ON TUE,
PRECIP COULD CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR SE, BUT HERE IS WHERE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY ONCE IT CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ALSO FOR SNOW AMTS.

WED...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
RISK FOR A BRIEF RESTRICTION WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...VFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
STARTING AT 1 PM SUNDAY, THOUGH THE WINDS WILL LAG A COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND,
THEREFORE WE DID NOT OPT TO RAISE TO A GLW ATTM. IT WILL EITHER BE
A VERY STRONG SCA OR MARGINAL GLW.

MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT COULD POTENTIAL REACH GALE FORCE LATE
WED INTO THU BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
     WE ARE WATCHING TWO POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOOD EVENTS NEAR
THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE..

THE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
TO VARYING DEGREES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH TO BEGIN WITH, GIVEN THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY, REACHING
THEIR PEAKS DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDES.

FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN NJ COAST, WHERE THE GREATEST
COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. GIVEN THE SHORT
DURATION OF STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, THE WIND BACKING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH /MORE OFFSHORE/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE,
AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM TRACK, CONFIDENCE
REGARDING IMPACTS IS LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN
NJ COAST.

REGARDING THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE ROBUST AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST, WITH A
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THIS FLOW LATE
MONDAY, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY 48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW,
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO BEGIN WITH.
IN ADDITION, A MORE EASTERLY WIND WILL MAKE FOR A LONGER FETCH
IN TERMS OF BUILDING WAVE ACTION. BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL JET, SO AGAIN OUR CONFIDENCE REGARDING IMPACTS IS
LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 062048
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY. OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS, NOT MUCH TO AFFECT THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVERNIGHT AND COOL QUITE EFFICIENTLY.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER FROSTY MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER ANOTHER FROSTY START, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT THE
FORECAST TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE 2 SYSTEMS TO WATCH DURG THE EXTENDD PD. THE FIRST IS A
STRONG CSTL LOW THAT EMERGES OFF THE SERN CST ON SUN. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE MDL GUID KEEPS THIS LOW OFF THE ATLC CST, WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS IS A VERY STRONG LOW AND BEARS
WATCHING AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH ON MON. THE NAM AND CMC IS
IMPLYING A MORE WWD TRACK THAT WOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACTS ON
CSTL AREAS OF NJ. THE MORE WWD SOLN HAS SEEMINGLY WON OUT THIS
SEASON, WITH THE JAN BLIZZARD AND EVEN THE SYS EARLIER THIS WEEK,
SO THIS SOLN IS NOT TERRIBLY FAR FETCHED. HOWEVER, THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE MDL GUID CONTINUES TO BE AGAINST IT. IF IT
WERE TO PRECIP MON AFTN, IT WOULD BE TOO WARM IN MANY AREAS FOR
SNOW.

THE NEXT SYS WILL THEN DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID-ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. MDL GUID CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYS AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NEWD THRU TUE. THE ECMWF MADE A PRONOUNCED EWD SHIFT THIS
CYCLE AND IS MUCH DRIER AS A RESULT ON TUE. THE GFS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FURTHER E, BUT REMAINS WETTER. THE CMC IS THE WETTEST
SOLN OF ALL. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS TEMPS. THE GFS HAS HAD
A WARM BIAS WITH BOTH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE SYSTEM EARLIER
THIS WEEK, BUT ITS TEMPS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. THAT WOULD
SUGGEST FOR AREAS FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR S AND EWD SFC TEMPS
WOULD BE ABV FREEZING ON TUE. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME DIABATIC
COOLING, IF THINGS GET WARM ENOUGH THERE COULD BE MIXING OR EVEN A
CHANGE OVER OR SNOW THAT FALLS AND DOESN`T ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY
DUG THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

BASED ON ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY THE EWD SHIFT OF THE
ECMWF (DESPITE ITS LESS THAN STELLAR PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER),
SEE NO REASON TO INCREASE SNOW AMTS AT THIS TIME AND WILL ONLY
MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

KEY TAKEAWAYS HERE, WHILE THERE IS STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS STORM, JANUARY 23RD THIS IS NOT. A COUPLE OF INCHES IS PSBL.
SOME PLACES CUD GET MORE, SOME LESS.

AS THIS LOW PULLS AWAY, CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND EVENTUALLY BUILD EWD. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY CIRRUS
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN
AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH, BUT AGAIN REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GUID CONTINUES TO KEEP THE
STRONG STORM OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, ANY WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO EASTERN TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON AND TUE...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS PD, AS A STORM
SYS MAY DEVELOP NR THE MID-ATLC CST AND PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES WRT
THE TRACK OF THIS SYS AS WELL AS TEMPS ON TUE. PRECIP SHUD BEGIN
AS RAIN LATER MON AND SHUD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MON NIGHT. ON TUE,
PRECIP COULD CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR SE, BUT HERE IS WHERE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY ONCE IT CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ALSO FOR SNOW AMTS.

WED...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
RISK FOR A BRIEF RESTRICTION WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...VFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
STARTING AT 1 PM SUNDAY, THOUGH THE WINDS WILL LAG A COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND,
THEREFORE WE DID NOT OPT TO RAISE TO A GLW ATTM. IT WILL EITHER BE
A VERY STRONG SCA OR MARGINAL GLW.

MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT COULD POTENTIAL REACH GALE FORCE LATE
WED INTO THU BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
     WE ARE WATCHING TWO POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOOD EVENTS NEAR
THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE..

THE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
TO VARYING DEGREES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH TO BEGIN WITH, GIVEN THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY, REACHING
THEIR PEAKS DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDES.

FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN NJ COAST, WHERE THE GREATEST
COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. GIVEN THE SHORT
DURATION OF STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, THE WIND BACKING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH /MORE OFFSHORE/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE,
AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM TRACK, CONFIDENCE
REGARDING IMPACTS IS LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN
NJ COAST.

REGARDING THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE ROBUST AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST, WITH A
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THIS FLOW LATE
MONDAY, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY 48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW,
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO BEGIN WITH.
IN ADDITION, A MORE EASTERLY WIND WILL MAKE FOR A LONGER FETCH
IN TERMS OF BUILDING WAVE ACTION. BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL JET, SO AGAIN OUR CONFIDENCE REGARDING IMPACTS IS
LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 062048
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY. OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS, NOT MUCH TO AFFECT THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVERNIGHT AND COOL QUITE EFFICIENTLY.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER FROSTY MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER ANOTHER FROSTY START, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT THE
FORECAST TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THERE ARE 2 SYSTEMS TO WATCH DURG THE EXTENDD PD. THE FIRST IS A
STRONG CSTL LOW THAT EMERGES OFF THE SERN CST ON SUN. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE MDL GUID KEEPS THIS LOW OFF THE ATLC CST, WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS IS A VERY STRONG LOW AND BEARS
WATCHING AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH ON MON. THE NAM AND CMC IS
IMPLYING A MORE WWD TRACK THAT WOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACTS ON
CSTL AREAS OF NJ. THE MORE WWD SOLN HAS SEEMINGLY WON OUT THIS
SEASON, WITH THE JAN BLIZZARD AND EVEN THE SYS EARLIER THIS WEEK,
SO THIS SOLN IS NOT TERRIBLY FAR FETCHED. HOWEVER, THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE MDL GUID CONTINUES TO BE AGAINST IT. IF IT
WERE TO PRECIP MON AFTN, IT WOULD BE TOO WARM IN MANY AREAS FOR
SNOW.

THE NEXT SYS WILL THEN DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID-ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. MDL GUID CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYS AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NEWD THRU TUE. THE ECMWF MADE A PRONOUNCED EWD SHIFT THIS
CYCLE AND IS MUCH DRIER AS A RESULT ON TUE. THE GFS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FURTHER E, BUT REMAINS WETTER. THE CMC IS THE WETTEST
SOLN OF ALL. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS TEMPS. THE GFS HAS HAD
A WARM BIAS WITH BOTH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE SYSTEM EARLIER
THIS WEEK, BUT ITS TEMPS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. THAT WOULD
SUGGEST FOR AREAS FROM THE I-95 CORRIDOR S AND EWD SFC TEMPS
WOULD BE ABV FREEZING ON TUE. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME DIABATIC
COOLING, IF THINGS GET WARM ENOUGH THERE COULD BE MIXING OR EVEN A
CHANGE OVER OR SNOW THAT FALLS AND DOESN`T ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY
DUG THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

BASED ON ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY THE EWD SHIFT OF THE
ECMWF (DESPITE ITS LESS THAN STELLAR PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER),
SEE NO REASON TO INCREASE SNOW AMTS AT THIS TIME AND WILL ONLY
MAKE SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

KEY TAKEAWAYS HERE, WHILE THERE IS STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS STORM, JANUARY 23RD THIS IS NOT. A COUPLE OF INCHES IS PSBL.
SOME PLACES CUD GET MORE, SOME LESS.

AS THIS LOW PULLS AWAY, CANADIAN HIGH PRES WILL BUILD INTO THE
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND EVENTUALLY BUILD EWD. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY CIRRUS
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN
AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH, BUT AGAIN REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GUID CONTINUES TO KEEP THE
STRONG STORM OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, ANY WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO EASTERN TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON AND TUE...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS PD, AS A STORM
SYS MAY DEVELOP NR THE MID-ATLC CST AND PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE UNCERTAINTIES WRT
THE TRACK OF THIS SYS AS WELL AS TEMPS ON TUE. PRECIP SHUD BEGIN
AS RAIN LATER MON AND SHUD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MON NIGHT. ON TUE,
PRECIP COULD CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR SE, BUT HERE IS WHERE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY ONCE IT CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ALSO FOR SNOW AMTS.

WED...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
RISK FOR A BRIEF RESTRICTION WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...VFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
STARTING AT 1 PM SUNDAY, THOUGH THE WINDS WILL LAG A COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND,
THEREFORE WE DID NOT OPT TO RAISE TO A GLW ATTM. IT WILL EITHER BE
A VERY STRONG SCA OR MARGINAL GLW.

MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT COULD POTENTIAL REACH GALE FORCE LATE
WED INTO THU BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
     WE ARE WATCHING TWO POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOOD EVENTS NEAR
THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE..

THE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
TO VARYING DEGREES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH TO BEGIN WITH, GIVEN THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY, REACHING
THEIR PEAKS DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDES.

FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN NJ COAST, WHERE THE GREATEST
COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. GIVEN THE SHORT
DURATION OF STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, THE WIND BACKING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH /MORE OFFSHORE/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE,
AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM TRACK, CONFIDENCE
REGARDING IMPACTS IS LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN
NJ COAST.

REGARDING THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE ROBUST AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST, WITH A
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THIS FLOW LATE
MONDAY, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY 48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW,
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO BEGIN WITH.
IN ADDITION, A MORE EASTERLY WIND WILL MAKE FOR A LONGER FETCH
IN TERMS OF BUILDING WAVE ACTION. BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL JET, SO AGAIN OUR CONFIDENCE REGARDING IMPACTS IS
LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 062047
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY. OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS, NOT MUCH TO AFFECT THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVERNIGHT AND COOL QUITE EFFICIENTLY.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER FROSTY MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER ANOTHER FROSTY START, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT THE
FORECAST TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE ARE 2 SYSTEMS TO WATCH DURG THE EXTENDD PD. THE FIRST IS A
STRONG CSTL LOW THAT EMERGES OFF THE SERN CST ON SUN. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE MDL GUID KEEPS THIS LOW OFF THE ATLC CST, WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS IS A VERY STRONG LOW AND BEARS
WATCHING AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH ON MON. THE NAM AND CMC IS
IMPLYING A MORE WWD TRACK THAT WOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACTS ON
CSTL AREAS OF NJ. THE MORE WWD SOLN HAS SEEMINGLY WON OUT THIS
SEASON, WITH THE JAN BLIZZARD AND EVEN THE SYS EARLIER THIS WEEK,
SO THIS SOLN IS NOT TERRIBLY FAR FETCHED. HOWEVER, THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE MDL GUID CONTINUES TO BE AGAINST IT. IF IT
WERE TO PRECIP MON AFTN, IT WOULD BE TOO WARM IN MANY AREAS FOR
SNOW.

THE NEXT SYS WILL THEN DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID-ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. MDL GUID CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYS AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NEWD THRU TUE. THE ECMWF MADE A PRONOUNCED EWD SHIFT THIS
CYCLE AND IS MUCH DRIER AS A RESULT ON TUE. THE GFS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FURTHER E, BUT REMAINS WETTER. THE CMC IS THE WETTEST
SOLN OF ALL. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS TEMPS. THE GFS HAS HAD
A WARM BIAS WITH BOTH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE SYSTEM EARLIER
THIS WEEK, BUT ITS TEMPS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. THAT WOULD
SUGGEST FOR AREAS FROM THE I-95 CORRIDER S AND EWD SFC TEMPS WOULD
BE ABV FREEZING ON TUE. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME DIABATIC
COOLING, IF THINGS GET WARM ENOUGH THERE COULD BE MIXING OR EVEN A
CHANGE OVER OR SNOW THAT FALLS AND DOESN`T ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY
DUG THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

BASED ON ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY THE EWD SHIFT OF THE
ECMWF (DEPSITE ITS LESS THAN STELLAR PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER), SEE
NO REASON TO INCREASE SNOW AMTS AT THIS TIME AND WILL ONLY MAKE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

KEY TAKEAWAYS HERE, WHILE THERE IS STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS STORM, JANUARY 23RD THIS IS NOT. A COUPLE OF INCHES IS PSBL.
SOME PLACES CUD GET MORE, SOME LESS.

AS THIS LOW PULLS AWAY, CANADIAN HIGH PRES IWLL BUILD INTO THE
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND EVENTUALLY BUILD EWD. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.



&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY CIRRUS
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN
AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH, BUT AGAIN REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GUID CONTINUES TO KEEP THE
STRONG STORM OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, ANY WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO EASTERN TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON AND TUE...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS PD, AS A STORM
SYS MAY DEVELOP NR THE MID-ATLC CST AND PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE UNCERAINTIES WRT THE
TRAK OF THIS SYS AS WELL AS TEMPS ON TUE. PRECIP SHUD BEGIN AS
RAIN LATER MON AND SHUD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MON NIGHT. ON TUE,
PRECIP COULD CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR SE, BUT HERE IS WHERE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY ONCE IT CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ALSO FOR SNOW AMTS.

WED...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
RISK FOR A BRIEF RESTRICTION WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...VFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
STARTING AT 1 PM SUNDAY, THOUGH THE WINDS WILL LAG A COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND,
THEREFORE WE DID NOT OPT TO RAISE TO A GLW ATTM. IT WILL EITHER BE
A VERY STRONG SCA OR MARGINAL GLW.

MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT COULD POTENTIAL REACH GALE FORCE LATE
WED INTO THU BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
...WE ARE WATCHING TWO POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOOD EVENTS NEAR
THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE..

THE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
TO VARYING DEGREES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH TO BEGIN WITH, GIVEN THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY, REACHING
THEIR PEAKS DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDES.

FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN NJ COAST, WHERE THE GREATEST
COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. GIVEN THE SHORT
DURATION OF STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, THE WIND BACKING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH /MORE OFFSHORE/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE,
AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM TRACK, CONFIDENCE
REGARDING IMPACTS IS LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN
NJ COAST.

REGARDING THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE ROBUST AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST, WITH A
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THIS FLOW LATE
MONDAY, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY 48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW,
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO BEGIN WITH.
IN ADDITION, A MORE EASTERLY WIND WILL MAKE FOR A LONGER FETCH
IN TERMS OF BUILDING WAVE ACTION. BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL JET, SO AGAIN OUR CONFIDENCE REGARDING IMPACTS IS
LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES.



&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANCK




000
FXUS61 KPHI 062047
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY. OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS, NOT MUCH TO AFFECT THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVERNIGHT AND COOL QUITE EFFICIENTLY.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER FROSTY MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER ANOTHER FROSTY START, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT THE
FORECAST TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE ARE 2 SYSTEMS TO WATCH DURG THE EXTENDD PD. THE FIRST IS A
STRONG CSTL LOW THAT EMERGES OFF THE SERN CST ON SUN. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE MDL GUID KEEPS THIS LOW OFF THE ATLC CST, WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS IS A VERY STRONG LOW AND BEARS
WATCHING AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH ON MON. THE NAM AND CMC IS
IMPLYING A MORE WWD TRACK THAT WOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACTS ON
CSTL AREAS OF NJ. THE MORE WWD SOLN HAS SEEMINGLY WON OUT THIS
SEASON, WITH THE JAN BLIZZARD AND EVEN THE SYS EARLIER THIS WEEK,
SO THIS SOLN IS NOT TERRIBLY FAR FETCHED. HOWEVER, THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE MDL GUID CONTINUES TO BE AGAINST IT. IF IT
WERE TO PRECIP MON AFTN, IT WOULD BE TOO WARM IN MANY AREAS FOR
SNOW.

THE NEXT SYS WILL THEN DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID-ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. MDL GUID CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYS AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NEWD THRU TUE. THE ECMWF MADE A PRONOUNCED EWD SHIFT THIS
CYCLE AND IS MUCH DRIER AS A RESULT ON TUE. THE GFS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FURTHER E, BUT REMAINS WETTER. THE CMC IS THE WETTEST
SOLN OF ALL. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS TEMPS. THE GFS HAS HAD
A WARM BIAS WITH BOTH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE SYSTEM EARLIER
THIS WEEK, BUT ITS TEMPS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. THAT WOULD
SUGGEST FOR AREAS FROM THE I-95 CORRIDER S AND EWD SFC TEMPS WOULD
BE ABV FREEZING ON TUE. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME DIABATIC
COOLING, IF THINGS GET WARM ENOUGH THERE COULD BE MIXING OR EVEN A
CHANGE OVER OR SNOW THAT FALLS AND DOESN`T ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY
DUG THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

BASED ON ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY THE EWD SHIFT OF THE
ECMWF (DEPSITE ITS LESS THAN STELLAR PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER), SEE
NO REASON TO INCREASE SNOW AMTS AT THIS TIME AND WILL ONLY MAKE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

KEY TAKEAWAYS HERE, WHILE THERE IS STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS STORM, JANUARY 23RD THIS IS NOT. A COUPLE OF INCHES IS PSBL.
SOME PLACES CUD GET MORE, SOME LESS.

AS THIS LOW PULLS AWAY, CANADIAN HIGH PRES IWLL BUILD INTO THE
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND EVENTUALLY BUILD EWD. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.



&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY CIRRUS
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN
AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH, BUT AGAIN REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GUID CONTINUES TO KEEP THE
STRONG STORM OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, ANY WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO EASTERN TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON AND TUE...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS PD, AS A STORM
SYS MAY DEVELOP NR THE MID-ATLC CST AND PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE UNCERAINTIES WRT THE
TRAK OF THIS SYS AS WELL AS TEMPS ON TUE. PRECIP SHUD BEGIN AS
RAIN LATER MON AND SHUD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MON NIGHT. ON TUE,
PRECIP COULD CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR SE, BUT HERE IS WHERE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY ONCE IT CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ALSO FOR SNOW AMTS.

WED...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
RISK FOR A BRIEF RESTRICTION WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...VFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
STARTING AT 1 PM SUNDAY, THOUGH THE WINDS WILL LAG A COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND,
THEREFORE WE DID NOT OPT TO RAISE TO A GLW ATTM. IT WILL EITHER BE
A VERY STRONG SCA OR MARGINAL GLW.

MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT COULD POTENTIAL REACH GALE FORCE LATE
WED INTO THU BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
...WE ARE WATCHING TWO POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOOD EVENTS NEAR
THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE..

THE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
TO VARYING DEGREES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH TO BEGIN WITH, GIVEN THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY, REACHING
THEIR PEAKS DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDES.

FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN NJ COAST, WHERE THE GREATEST
COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. GIVEN THE SHORT
DURATION OF STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, THE WIND BACKING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH /MORE OFFSHORE/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE,
AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM TRACK, CONFIDENCE
REGARDING IMPACTS IS LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN
NJ COAST.

REGARDING THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE ROBUST AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST, WITH A
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THIS FLOW LATE
MONDAY, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY 48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW,
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO BEGIN WITH.
IN ADDITION, A MORE EASTERLY WIND WILL MAKE FOR A LONGER FETCH
IN TERMS OF BUILDING WAVE ACTION. BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL JET, SO AGAIN OUR CONFIDENCE REGARDING IMPACTS IS
LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES.



&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANCK



000
FXUS61 KPHI 062047
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY. OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS, NOT MUCH TO AFFECT THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVERNIGHT AND COOL QUITE EFFICIENTLY.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER FROSTY MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER ANOTHER FROSTY START, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT THE
FORECAST TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE ARE 2 SYSTEMS TO WATCH DURG THE EXTENDD PD. THE FIRST IS A
STRONG CSTL LOW THAT EMERGES OFF THE SERN CST ON SUN. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE MDL GUID KEEPS THIS LOW OFF THE ATLC CST, WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS IS A VERY STRONG LOW AND BEARS
WATCHING AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH ON MON. THE NAM AND CMC IS
IMPLYING A MORE WWD TRACK THAT WOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACTS ON
CSTL AREAS OF NJ. THE MORE WWD SOLN HAS SEEMINGLY WON OUT THIS
SEASON, WITH THE JAN BLIZZARD AND EVEN THE SYS EARLIER THIS WEEK,
SO THIS SOLN IS NOT TERRIBLY FAR FETCHED. HOWEVER, THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE MDL GUID CONTINUES TO BE AGAINST IT. IF IT
WERE TO PRECIP MON AFTN, IT WOULD BE TOO WARM IN MANY AREAS FOR
SNOW.

THE NEXT SYS WILL THEN DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID-ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. MDL GUID CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYS AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NEWD THRU TUE. THE ECMWF MADE A PRONOUNCED EWD SHIFT THIS
CYCLE AND IS MUCH DRIER AS A RESULT ON TUE. THE GFS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FURTHER E, BUT REMAINS WETTER. THE CMC IS THE WETTEST
SOLN OF ALL. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS TEMPS. THE GFS HAS HAD
A WARM BIAS WITH BOTH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE SYSTEM EARLIER
THIS WEEK, BUT ITS TEMPS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. THAT WOULD
SUGGEST FOR AREAS FROM THE I-95 CORRIDER S AND EWD SFC TEMPS WOULD
BE ABV FREEZING ON TUE. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME DIABATIC
COOLING, IF THINGS GET WARM ENOUGH THERE COULD BE MIXING OR EVEN A
CHANGE OVER OR SNOW THAT FALLS AND DOESN`T ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY
DUG THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

BASED ON ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY THE EWD SHIFT OF THE
ECMWF (DEPSITE ITS LESS THAN STELLAR PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER), SEE
NO REASON TO INCREASE SNOW AMTS AT THIS TIME AND WILL ONLY MAKE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

KEY TAKEAWAYS HERE, WHILE THERE IS STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS STORM, JANUARY 23RD THIS IS NOT. A COUPLE OF INCHES IS PSBL.
SOME PLACES CUD GET MORE, SOME LESS.

AS THIS LOW PULLS AWAY, CANADIAN HIGH PRES IWLL BUILD INTO THE
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND EVENTUALLY BUILD EWD. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.



&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY CIRRUS
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN
AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH, BUT AGAIN REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GUID CONTINUES TO KEEP THE
STRONG STORM OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, ANY WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO EASTERN TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON AND TUE...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS PD, AS A STORM
SYS MAY DEVELOP NR THE MID-ATLC CST AND PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE UNCERAINTIES WRT THE
TRAK OF THIS SYS AS WELL AS TEMPS ON TUE. PRECIP SHUD BEGIN AS
RAIN LATER MON AND SHUD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MON NIGHT. ON TUE,
PRECIP COULD CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR SE, BUT HERE IS WHERE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY ONCE IT CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ALSO FOR SNOW AMTS.

WED...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
RISK FOR A BRIEF RESTRICTION WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...VFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
STARTING AT 1 PM SUNDAY, THOUGH THE WINDS WILL LAG A COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND,
THEREFORE WE DID NOT OPT TO RAISE TO A GLW ATTM. IT WILL EITHER BE
A VERY STRONG SCA OR MARGINAL GLW.

MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT COULD POTENTIAL REACH GALE FORCE LATE
WED INTO THU BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
...WE ARE WATCHING TWO POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOOD EVENTS NEAR
THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE..

THE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
TO VARYING DEGREES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH TO BEGIN WITH, GIVEN THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY, REACHING
THEIR PEAKS DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDES.

FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN NJ COAST, WHERE THE GREATEST
COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. GIVEN THE SHORT
DURATION OF STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, THE WIND BACKING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH /MORE OFFSHORE/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE,
AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM TRACK, CONFIDENCE
REGARDING IMPACTS IS LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN
NJ COAST.

REGARDING THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE ROBUST AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST, WITH A
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THIS FLOW LATE
MONDAY, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY 48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW,
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO BEGIN WITH.
IN ADDITION, A MORE EASTERLY WIND WILL MAKE FOR A LONGER FETCH
IN TERMS OF BUILDING WAVE ACTION. BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL JET, SO AGAIN OUR CONFIDENCE REGARDING IMPACTS IS
LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES.



&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANCK



000
FXUS61 KPHI 062047
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY. OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS, NOT MUCH TO AFFECT THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVERNIGHT AND COOL QUITE EFFICIENTLY.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER FROSTY MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER ANOTHER FROSTY START, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT THE
FORECAST TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE ARE 2 SYSTEMS TO WATCH DURG THE EXTENDD PD. THE FIRST IS A
STRONG CSTL LOW THAT EMERGES OFF THE SERN CST ON SUN. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE MDL GUID KEEPS THIS LOW OFF THE ATLC CST, WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS IS A VERY STRONG LOW AND BEARS
WATCHING AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH ON MON. THE NAM AND CMC IS
IMPLYING A MORE WWD TRACK THAT WOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACTS ON
CSTL AREAS OF NJ. THE MORE WWD SOLN HAS SEEMINGLY WON OUT THIS
SEASON, WITH THE JAN BLIZZARD AND EVEN THE SYS EARLIER THIS WEEK,
SO THIS SOLN IS NOT TERRIBLY FAR FETCHED. HOWEVER, THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE MDL GUID CONTINUES TO BE AGAINST IT. IF IT
WERE TO PRECIP MON AFTN, IT WOULD BE TOO WARM IN MANY AREAS FOR
SNOW.

THE NEXT SYS WILL THEN DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID-ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. MDL GUID CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYS AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NEWD THRU TUE. THE ECMWF MADE A PRONOUNCED EWD SHIFT THIS
CYCLE AND IS MUCH DRIER AS A RESULT ON TUE. THE GFS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FURTHER E, BUT REMAINS WETTER. THE CMC IS THE WETTEST
SOLN OF ALL. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS TEMPS. THE GFS HAS HAD
A WARM BIAS WITH BOTH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE SYSTEM EARLIER
THIS WEEK, BUT ITS TEMPS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. THAT WOULD
SUGGEST FOR AREAS FROM THE I-95 CORRIDER S AND EWD SFC TEMPS WOULD
BE ABV FREEZING ON TUE. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME DIABATIC
COOLING, IF THINGS GET WARM ENOUGH THERE COULD BE MIXING OR EVEN A
CHANGE OVER OR SNOW THAT FALLS AND DOESN`T ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY
DUG THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

BASED ON ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY THE EWD SHIFT OF THE
ECMWF (DEPSITE ITS LESS THAN STELLAR PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER), SEE
NO REASON TO INCREASE SNOW AMTS AT THIS TIME AND WILL ONLY MAKE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

KEY TAKEAWAYS HERE, WHILE THERE IS STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS STORM, JANUARY 23RD THIS IS NOT. A COUPLE OF INCHES IS PSBL.
SOME PLACES CUD GET MORE, SOME LESS.

AS THIS LOW PULLS AWAY, CANADIAN HIGH PRES IWLL BUILD INTO THE
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND EVENTUALLY BUILD EWD. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.



&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY CIRRUS
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN
AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH, BUT AGAIN REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GUID CONTINUES TO KEEP THE
STRONG STORM OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, ANY WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO EASTERN TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON AND TUE...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS PD, AS A STORM
SYS MAY DEVELOP NR THE MID-ATLC CST AND PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE UNCERAINTIES WRT THE
TRAK OF THIS SYS AS WELL AS TEMPS ON TUE. PRECIP SHUD BEGIN AS
RAIN LATER MON AND SHUD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MON NIGHT. ON TUE,
PRECIP COULD CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR SE, BUT HERE IS WHERE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY ONCE IT CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ALSO FOR SNOW AMTS.

WED...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
RISK FOR A BRIEF RESTRICTION WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...VFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
STARTING AT 1 PM SUNDAY, THOUGH THE WINDS WILL LAG A COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND,
THEREFORE WE DID NOT OPT TO RAISE TO A GLW ATTM. IT WILL EITHER BE
A VERY STRONG SCA OR MARGINAL GLW.

MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT COULD POTENTIAL REACH GALE FORCE LATE
WED INTO THU BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
...WE ARE WATCHING TWO POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOOD EVENTS NEAR
THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE..

THE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
TO VARYING DEGREES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH TO BEGIN WITH, GIVEN THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY, REACHING
THEIR PEAKS DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDES.

FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN NJ COAST, WHERE THE GREATEST
COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. GIVEN THE SHORT
DURATION OF STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, THE WIND BACKING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH /MORE OFFSHORE/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE,
AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM TRACK, CONFIDENCE
REGARDING IMPACTS IS LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN
NJ COAST.

REGARDING THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE ROBUST AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST, WITH A
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THIS FLOW LATE
MONDAY, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY 48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW,
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO BEGIN WITH.
IN ADDITION, A MORE EASTERLY WIND WILL MAKE FOR A LONGER FETCH
IN TERMS OF BUILDING WAVE ACTION. BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL JET, SO AGAIN OUR CONFIDENCE REGARDING IMPACTS IS
LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES.



&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANCK



000
FXUS61 KPHI 062047
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
347 PM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS
WEEKEND AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE
MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH AND WEST
DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, WHICH WILL KEEP THE
WEATHER DRY. OTHER THAN SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS, NOT MUCH TO AFFECT THE
AREA. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO FALL OVERNIGHT AND COOL QUITE EFFICIENTLY.
SHOULD BE ANOTHER FROSTY MORNING SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER ANOTHER FROSTY START, TEMPERATURES WILL RISE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THAN SATURDAY AND END UP A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. CLOUDS
WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH AS A SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT THE
FORECAST TO REMAIN PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE DAYTIME HOURS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THERE ARE 2 SYSTEMS TO WATCH DURG THE EXTENDD PD. THE FIRST IS A
STRONG CSTL LOW THAT EMERGES OFF THE SERN CST ON SUN. THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE MDL GUID KEEPS THIS LOW OFF THE ATLC CST, WITH
MINIMAL IMPACT ON OUR AREA. THIS IS A VERY STRONG LOW AND BEARS
WATCHING AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH ON MON. THE NAM AND CMC IS
IMPLYING A MORE WWD TRACK THAT WOULD HAVE AT LEAST SOME IMPACTS ON
CSTL AREAS OF NJ. THE MORE WWD SOLN HAS SEEMINGLY WON OUT THIS
SEASON, WITH THE JAN BLIZZARD AND EVEN THE SYS EARLIER THIS WEEK,
SO THIS SOLN IS NOT TERRIBLY FAR FETCHED. HOWEVER, THE
PREPONDERANCE OF THE MDL GUID CONTINUES TO BE AGAINST IT. IF IT
WERE TO PRECIP MON AFTN, IT WOULD BE TOO WARM IN MANY AREAS FOR
SNOW.

THE NEXT SYS WILL THEN DEVELOP SOMEWHERE OFF THE MID-ATLC CST MON
NIGHT. MDL GUID CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE TO RESOLVE THE DETAILS OF
THIS SYS AND CONFIDENCE REMAINS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE. THIS LOW WILL
MOVE NEWD THRU TUE. THE ECMWF MADE A PRONOUNCED EWD SHIFT THIS
CYCLE AND IS MUCH DRIER AS A RESULT ON TUE. THE GFS SHIFTED
SLIGHTLY FURTHER E, BUT REMAINS WETTER. THE CMC IS THE WETTEST
SOLN OF ALL. ANOTHER FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS TEMPS. THE GFS HAS HAD
A WARM BIAS WITH BOTH THE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE SYSTEM EARLIER
THIS WEEK, BUT ITS TEMPS ARE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE ECMWF. THAT WOULD
SUGGEST FOR AREAS FROM THE I-95 CORRIDER S AND EWD SFC TEMPS WOULD
BE ABV FREEZING ON TUE. WHILE THERE COULD BE SOME DIABATIC
COOLING, IF THINGS GET WARM ENOUGH THERE COULD BE MIXING OR EVEN A
CHANGE OVER OR SNOW THAT FALLS AND DOESN`T ACCUMULATE, ESPECIALLY
DUG THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.

BASED ON ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY, ESPECIALLY THE EWD SHIFT OF THE
ECMWF (DEPSITE ITS LESS THAN STELLAR PERFORMANCE THIS WINTER), SEE
NO REASON TO INCREASE SNOW AMTS AT THIS TIME AND WILL ONLY MAKE
SOME MINOR TWEAKS.

KEY TAKEAWAYS HERE, WHILE THERE IS STILL ALOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THIS STORM, JANUARY 23RD THIS IS NOT. A COUPLE OF INCHES IS PSBL.
SOME PLACES CUD GET MORE, SOME LESS.

AS THIS LOW PULLS AWAY, CANADIAN HIGH PRES IWLL BUILD INTO THE
MID-SECTION OF THE COUNTRY AND EVENTUALLY BUILD EWD. TEMPS WILL
STRUGGLE TO CLIMB OUT OF THE 30S BY THE END OF THE WEEK.



&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH ONLY CIRRUS
CLOUDS EXPECTED THROUGH MOST OF SUNDAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO THICKEN
AND LOWER DURING THE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AS A SYSTEM
APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH, BUT AGAIN REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE DAY.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5-10 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ACROSS
THE AREA. WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT...VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE GUID CONTINUES TO KEEP THE
STRONG STORM OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, ANY WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK
MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO EASTERN TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE, VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED. MDT CONFIDENCE.

MON AND TUE...LOWER THAN AVERAGE CONFIDENCE THIS PD, AS A STORM
SYS MAY DEVELOP NR THE MID-ATLC CST AND PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE ARE UNCERAINTIES WRT THE
TRAK OF THIS SYS AS WELL AS TEMPS ON TUE. PRECIP SHUD BEGIN AS
RAIN LATER MON AND SHUD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW MON NIGHT. ON TUE,
PRECIP COULD CHANGE BACK OVER TO RAIN ESPECIALLY FROM THE I-95
CORRIDOR SE, BUT HERE IS WHERE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES.
POTENTIAL FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY ONCE IT CHANGES OVER TO
SNOW. HIGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS ALSO FOR SNOW AMTS.

WED...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH THERE IS A SMALL
RISK FOR A BRIEF RESTRICTION WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER. MDT
CONFIDENCE.

THURSDAY...VFR.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO AFFECT THE AREA. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH DURING THE AFTERNOON SUNDAY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BEGINS TO TIGHTEN AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING
SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT
STARTING AT 1 PM SUNDAY, THOUGH THE WINDS WILL LAG A COUPLE OF HOURS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUN NIGHT AND MONDAY...THE GALE WATCH WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT. THERE
IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND,
THEREFORE WE DID NOT OPT TO RAISE TO A GLW ATTM. IT WILL EITHER BE
A VERY STRONG SCA OR MARGINAL GLW.

MON NIGHT THROUGH THU...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT COULD POTENTIAL REACH GALE FORCE LATE
WED INTO THU BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE STRENGTH
OF THE WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
...WE ARE WATCHING TWO POTENTIAL COASTAL FLOOD EVENTS NEAR
THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE..

THE FLOW WILL BECOME ONSHORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE
ANCHORS OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE
CAROLINAS. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS WELL
SOUTHEAST OF OUR REGION. WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH REMAINING
TO OUR NORTH, ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
OUTERBANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA MONDAY NIGHT AND PASS SOUTHEAST OF
OUR REGION DURING THE DAY TUESDAY.

THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL MAINTAIN AN ONSHORE FLOW ALONG THE COAST
TO VARYING DEGREES SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY. ASTRONOMICAL TIDES WILL
BE HIGH TO BEGIN WITH, GIVEN THE NEW MOON ON MONDAY, REACHING
THEIR PEAKS DURING THE MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDES.

FOR THE MONDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, THE THREAT OF COASTAL FLOODING
WILL BE HIGHEST ALONG THE NORTHERN NJ COAST, WHERE THE GREATEST
COMPONENT OF ONSHORE FLOW WILL BE PRESENT. GIVEN THE SHORT
DURATION OF STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW, THE WIND BACKING FROM THE
NORTHEAST TO NORTH /MORE OFFSHORE/ AS WE APPROACH HIGH TIDE,
AND CONTINUED UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE STORM TRACK, CONFIDENCE
REGARDING IMPACTS IS LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR AT LEAST MINOR COASTAL FLOODING, PARTICULARLY THE NORTHERN
NJ COAST.

REGARDING THE TUESDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE, A MORE ROBUST AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO TRACK CLOSER TO THE COAST, WITH A
STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW. ASIDE FROM A BRIEF LULL IN THIS FLOW LATE
MONDAY, WE`LL HAVE HAD NEARLY 48 HOURS DURATION OF ONSHORE FLOW,
WHICH WILL MAKE FOR POSITIVE TIDAL DEPARTURES TO BEGIN WITH.
IN ADDITION, A MORE EASTERLY WIND WILL MAKE FOR A LONGER FETCH
IN TERMS OF BUILDING WAVE ACTION. BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE EVOLUTION OF THIS LOW AND ASSOCIATED
LOW-LEVEL JET, SO AGAIN OUR CONFIDENCE REGARDING IMPACTS IS
LOW. AT THIS TIME, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO LATER FORECASTS AND POSSIBLE HEADLINES.



&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM TO 8 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM SUNDAY TO 6 AM EST MONDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...FRANCK



000
FXUS61 KPHI 061152
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
652 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A QUIET AND PLEASANT FEBRUARY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. OTHER
THAN SOME CIRRUS SPILLING INTO THE REGION, AMPLE SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE
SOME AND TAKE ON A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON,
WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10MPH. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, REACHING MOSTLY INTO
THE LOWER 40S, EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST NJ AND THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA
AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE. THERE MAY BE
SOME REMAINING CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING, AND THEN
CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, AS WELL. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
WARMING WILL BE TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT, SO DESPITE
THE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS, MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES MILDER THAN
FRIDAY NIGHT. WE BLENDED MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY AND
ANTICIPATE LOWS TO BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CAPTURES TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THESE
SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO PHASE TO SOME DEGREE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
GULF COAST REGION THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW REACH THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF
STREAM. THE EXACT TRACK THE LOW TAKES AND HOW QUICKLY IT DEEPENS
WILL DETERMINE THE IMPACTS TO OUR AREA, IF ANY, LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL
DISAGREEMENT THAT HAS MADE IT CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE WHAT THE
OUTCOME WILL BE. ONE GENERAL CAMP OF MODELS HAS THE LOW BOMBING OUT
AND TRACKING CLOSER TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE OTHER CAMP IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE/LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, RESULTING IN A
TRACK THAT IS HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA. REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES,
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
SPARE OUR AREA FROM DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM (E.G., HEAVY SNOW
AND STRONG WINDS). WITH THAT SAID, THIS STORM STILL BARES WATCHING.
MANY OF THE MODELS FOR DAYS LEADING UP TO THE PAST TWO STORMS (THE
LATE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE ONE YESTERDAY) HAD A DISTINCT
EASTWARD BIAS IN THE TRACK. BOTH OF THESE STORMS WOUND UP TAKING
VERY SIMILAR TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND FOLLOWED THE STRONG
SST GRADIENT THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
ANOMALOUSLY WARM GULF STREAM CURRENT. ACCORDINGLY, WE FAVOR THESE
WESTERN SOLUTIONS AND HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHANCES FOR RA/SN IN DE
AND NJ. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY STILL TOO HIGH TO INCLUDE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS UPSTREAM TO A DIGGING UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY AS THE PRIMARY LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT THEY DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO WHERE
EXACTLY THE SECONDARY LOW FORMS. THESE MILLER-B TYPE SETUPS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY TRICKY. IF THE MILLER B LOW FORMS TO OUR SOUTH AND
FARTHER OFFSHORE LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM INDICATED, THEN
SETUP WOULD FAVOR LIGHTER SNOW (STARTING OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR
JUST RAIN ESPECIALLY AS YOU GET CLOSER TO THE COAST) FROM THE
PRIMARY LOW FOR OUR AREA. IF THE LOW DEVELOPS AT OUR LATITUDE AND
DEEPENS QUICKLY CLOSER TO THE COAST LIKE THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAD
INDICATED, THEN PARTS OF OUR AREA COULD BE IN LINE FOR A BAND OF
HEAVIER SNOW BACK TO THE WEST ALONG AN INVERTED/NORLUN TROUGH. SINCE
OUR SNOWFALL FORECAST ONLY GOES OUT 72 HOURS FROM NOW (THRU MONDAY
NIGHT), THE AMOUNTS ON THE WEBPAGE ONLY INCLUDE PART OF THE STORM.
DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM WPC AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES...A GENERAL 1-
2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS SINCE THEY WILL BE REFINED AS THE UNCERTAINTY DECREASES
OVER TIME.

AFTER AN ACTIVE START TO THE LONG TERM, A MORE DOCILE WEATHER
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WE COULD
SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THAT, A SHOT OF ARCTIC AREA TAKES AIM FOR THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP US DRY ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOLLOWED GUIDANCE FROM WPC/SUPER BLEND CLOSELY
IN DAYS 4-7. TEMPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE MAY NOT REACH
FREEZING LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A
SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY
BETWEEN 6 TO 8 KNOTS. INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WINDS WILL
AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A LITTLE REMAINING CIRRUS OR
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, ANY WESTWARD SHIFT
IN THE TRACK MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO EASTERN
TERMINALS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IT MAY BE WARM ENOUGH TO START OUT AS RAIN NEAR THE
COAST AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR I-95. EVENTUALLY IT WILL LIKELY TURN
OVER TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY ONCE IT CHANGES
OVER TO SNOW. THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGEOVER AND HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
SMALL RISK FOR A BRIEF RESTRICTION WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT, SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, WITH 1 TO 2
FOOT SEAS INTO DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL
ATLANTIC WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. AN OFFSHORE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR N-NELY WINDS TO REACH 35 KT IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK. IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK, THEN WINDS
WILL BE WEAKER AND CAPPED AT SCA LEVELS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT COULD POTENTIAL REACH GALE
FORCE LATE WEDNESDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK OFF THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND WITH THIS ONE DEVELOPING AS IT`S MOVING OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THESE TWO STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR ACROSS OUR AREA AT A TIME WHEN ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE
ELEVATED FROM THE UPCOMING NEW MOON, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL FLOODING PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS AS WELL
AS THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE LATEST ETSS AND NYHOPS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO PERHAPS MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
MORNING HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY WILL COME WITH THE HIGHEST
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE, SO THIS ONE COULD COME WITH THE GREATEST RISK
FOR MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/KLINE
MARINE...KLEIN/KLINE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KLEIN



000
FXUS61 KPHI 061152
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
652 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A QUIET AND PLEASANT FEBRUARY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. OTHER
THAN SOME CIRRUS SPILLING INTO THE REGION, AMPLE SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE
SOME AND TAKE ON A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON,
WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10MPH. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, REACHING MOSTLY INTO
THE LOWER 40S, EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST NJ AND THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA
AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE. THERE MAY BE
SOME REMAINING CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING, AND THEN
CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, AS WELL. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
WARMING WILL BE TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT, SO DESPITE
THE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS, MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES MILDER THAN
FRIDAY NIGHT. WE BLENDED MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY AND
ANTICIPATE LOWS TO BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CAPTURES TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THESE
SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO PHASE TO SOME DEGREE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
GULF COAST REGION THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW REACH THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF
STREAM. THE EXACT TRACK THE LOW TAKES AND HOW QUICKLY IT DEEPENS
WILL DETERMINE THE IMPACTS TO OUR AREA, IF ANY, LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL
DISAGREEMENT THAT HAS MADE IT CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE WHAT THE
OUTCOME WILL BE. ONE GENERAL CAMP OF MODELS HAS THE LOW BOMBING OUT
AND TRACKING CLOSER TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE OTHER CAMP IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE/LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, RESULTING IN A
TRACK THAT IS HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA. REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES,
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
SPARE OUR AREA FROM DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM (E.G., HEAVY SNOW
AND STRONG WINDS). WITH THAT SAID, THIS STORM STILL BARES WATCHING.
MANY OF THE MODELS FOR DAYS LEADING UP TO THE PAST TWO STORMS (THE
LATE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE ONE YESTERDAY) HAD A DISTINCT
EASTWARD BIAS IN THE TRACK. BOTH OF THESE STORMS WOUND UP TAKING
VERY SIMILAR TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND FOLLOWED THE STRONG
SST GRADIENT THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
ANOMALOUSLY WARM GULF STREAM CURRENT. ACCORDINGLY, WE FAVOR THESE
WESTERN SOLUTIONS AND HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHANCES FOR RA/SN IN DE
AND NJ. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY STILL TOO HIGH TO INCLUDE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS UPSTREAM TO A DIGGING UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY AS THE PRIMARY LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT THEY DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO WHERE
EXACTLY THE SECONDARY LOW FORMS. THESE MILLER-B TYPE SETUPS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY TRICKY. IF THE MILLER B LOW FORMS TO OUR SOUTH AND
FARTHER OFFSHORE LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM INDICATED, THEN
SETUP WOULD FAVOR LIGHTER SNOW (STARTING OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR
JUST RAIN ESPECIALLY AS YOU GET CLOSER TO THE COAST) FROM THE
PRIMARY LOW FOR OUR AREA. IF THE LOW DEVELOPS AT OUR LATITUDE AND
DEEPENS QUICKLY CLOSER TO THE COAST LIKE THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAD
INDICATED, THEN PARTS OF OUR AREA COULD BE IN LINE FOR A BAND OF
HEAVIER SNOW BACK TO THE WEST ALONG AN INVERTED/NORLUN TROUGH. SINCE
OUR SNOWFALL FORECAST ONLY GOES OUT 72 HOURS FROM NOW (THRU MONDAY
NIGHT), THE AMOUNTS ON THE WEBPAGE ONLY INCLUDE PART OF THE STORM.
DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM WPC AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES...A GENERAL 1-
2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS SINCE THEY WILL BE REFINED AS THE UNCERTAINTY DECREASES
OVER TIME.

AFTER AN ACTIVE START TO THE LONG TERM, A MORE DOCILE WEATHER
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WE COULD
SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THAT, A SHOT OF ARCTIC AREA TAKES AIM FOR THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP US DRY ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOLLOWED GUIDANCE FROM WPC/SUPER BLEND CLOSELY
IN DAYS 4-7. TEMPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE MAY NOT REACH
FREEZING LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A
SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY
BETWEEN 6 TO 8 KNOTS. INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WINDS WILL
AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A LITTLE REMAINING CIRRUS OR
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, ANY WESTWARD SHIFT
IN THE TRACK MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO EASTERN
TERMINALS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IT MAY BE WARM ENOUGH TO START OUT AS RAIN NEAR THE
COAST AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR I-95. EVENTUALLY IT WILL LIKELY TURN
OVER TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY ONCE IT CHANGES
OVER TO SNOW. THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGEOVER AND HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
SMALL RISK FOR A BRIEF RESTRICTION WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT, SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, WITH 1 TO 2
FOOT SEAS INTO DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL
ATLANTIC WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. AN OFFSHORE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR N-NELY WINDS TO REACH 35 KT IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK. IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK, THEN WINDS
WILL BE WEAKER AND CAPPED AT SCA LEVELS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT COULD POTENTIAL REACH GALE
FORCE LATE WEDNESDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK OFF THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND WITH THIS ONE DEVELOPING AS IT`S MOVING OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THESE TWO STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR ACROSS OUR AREA AT A TIME WHEN ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE
ELEVATED FROM THE UPCOMING NEW MOON, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL FLOODING PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS AS WELL
AS THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE LATEST ETSS AND NYHOPS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO PERHAPS MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
MORNING HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY WILL COME WITH THE HIGHEST
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE, SO THIS ONE COULD COME WITH THE GREATEST RISK
FOR MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/KLINE
MARINE...KLEIN/KLINE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 061152
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
652 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A QUIET AND PLEASANT FEBRUARY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. OTHER
THAN SOME CIRRUS SPILLING INTO THE REGION, AMPLE SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE
SOME AND TAKE ON A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON,
WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10MPH. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, REACHING MOSTLY INTO
THE LOWER 40S, EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST NJ AND THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA
AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE. THERE MAY BE
SOME REMAINING CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING, AND THEN
CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, AS WELL. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
WARMING WILL BE TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT, SO DESPITE
THE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS, MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES MILDER THAN
FRIDAY NIGHT. WE BLENDED MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY AND
ANTICIPATE LOWS TO BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CAPTURES TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THESE
SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO PHASE TO SOME DEGREE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
GULF COAST REGION THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW REACH THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF
STREAM. THE EXACT TRACK THE LOW TAKES AND HOW QUICKLY IT DEEPENS
WILL DETERMINE THE IMPACTS TO OUR AREA, IF ANY, LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL
DISAGREEMENT THAT HAS MADE IT CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE WHAT THE
OUTCOME WILL BE. ONE GENERAL CAMP OF MODELS HAS THE LOW BOMBING OUT
AND TRACKING CLOSER TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE OTHER CAMP IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE/LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, RESULTING IN A
TRACK THAT IS HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA. REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES,
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
SPARE OUR AREA FROM DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM (E.G., HEAVY SNOW
AND STRONG WINDS). WITH THAT SAID, THIS STORM STILL BARES WATCHING.
MANY OF THE MODELS FOR DAYS LEADING UP TO THE PAST TWO STORMS (THE
LATE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE ONE YESTERDAY) HAD A DISTINCT
EASTWARD BIAS IN THE TRACK. BOTH OF THESE STORMS WOUND UP TAKING
VERY SIMILAR TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND FOLLOWED THE STRONG
SST GRADIENT THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
ANOMALOUSLY WARM GULF STREAM CURRENT. ACCORDINGLY, WE FAVOR THESE
WESTERN SOLUTIONS AND HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHANCES FOR RA/SN IN DE
AND NJ. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY STILL TOO HIGH TO INCLUDE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS UPSTREAM TO A DIGGING UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY AS THE PRIMARY LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT THEY DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO WHERE
EXACTLY THE SECONDARY LOW FORMS. THESE MILLER-B TYPE SETUPS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY TRICKY. IF THE MILLER B LOW FORMS TO OUR SOUTH AND
FARTHER OFFSHORE LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM INDICATED, THEN
SETUP WOULD FAVOR LIGHTER SNOW (STARTING OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR
JUST RAIN ESPECIALLY AS YOU GET CLOSER TO THE COAST) FROM THE
PRIMARY LOW FOR OUR AREA. IF THE LOW DEVELOPS AT OUR LATITUDE AND
DEEPENS QUICKLY CLOSER TO THE COAST LIKE THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAD
INDICATED, THEN PARTS OF OUR AREA COULD BE IN LINE FOR A BAND OF
HEAVIER SNOW BACK TO THE WEST ALONG AN INVERTED/NORLUN TROUGH. SINCE
OUR SNOWFALL FORECAST ONLY GOES OUT 72 HOURS FROM NOW (THRU MONDAY
NIGHT), THE AMOUNTS ON THE WEBPAGE ONLY INCLUDE PART OF THE STORM.
DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM WPC AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES...A GENERAL 1-
2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS SINCE THEY WILL BE REFINED AS THE UNCERTAINTY DECREASES
OVER TIME.

AFTER AN ACTIVE START TO THE LONG TERM, A MORE DOCILE WEATHER
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WE COULD
SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THAT, A SHOT OF ARCTIC AREA TAKES AIM FOR THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP US DRY ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOLLOWED GUIDANCE FROM WPC/SUPER BLEND CLOSELY
IN DAYS 4-7. TEMPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE MAY NOT REACH
FREEZING LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A
SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY
BETWEEN 6 TO 8 KNOTS. INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WINDS WILL
AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A LITTLE REMAINING CIRRUS OR
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, ANY WESTWARD SHIFT
IN THE TRACK MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO EASTERN
TERMINALS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IT MAY BE WARM ENOUGH TO START OUT AS RAIN NEAR THE
COAST AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR I-95. EVENTUALLY IT WILL LIKELY TURN
OVER TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY ONCE IT CHANGES
OVER TO SNOW. THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGEOVER AND HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
SMALL RISK FOR A BRIEF RESTRICTION WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TODAY AND TONIGHT, SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS ARE MAINLY EXPECTED TO RANGE
BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, WITH 1 TO 2
FOOT SEAS INTO DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL
ATLANTIC WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. AN OFFSHORE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR N-NELY WINDS TO REACH 35 KT IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK. IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK, THEN WINDS
WILL BE WEAKER AND CAPPED AT SCA LEVELS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT COULD POTENTIAL REACH GALE
FORCE LATE WEDNESDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK OFF THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND WITH THIS ONE DEVELOPING AS IT`S MOVING OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THESE TWO STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR ACROSS OUR AREA AT A TIME WHEN ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE
ELEVATED FROM THE UPCOMING NEW MOON, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL FLOODING PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS AS WELL
AS THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE LATEST ETSS AND NYHOPS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO PERHAPS MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
MORNING HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY WILL COME WITH THE HIGHEST
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE, SO THIS ONE COULD COME WITH THE GREATEST RISK
FOR MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/KLINE
MARINE...KLEIN/KLINE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 061045 AAA
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
545 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A QUIET AND PLEASANT FEBRUARY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. OTHER
THAN SOME CIRRUS SPILLING INTO THE REGION, AMPLE SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE
SOME AND TAKE ON A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON,
WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10MPH. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, REACHING MOSTLY INTO
THE LOWER 40S, EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST NJ AND THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA
AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE. THERE MAY BE
SOME REMAINING CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING, AND THEN
CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, AS WELL. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
WARMING WILL BE TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT, SO DESPITE
THE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS, MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES MILDER THAN
FRIDAY NIGHT. WE BLENDED MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY AND
ANTICIPATE LOWS TO BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CAPTURES TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THESE
SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO PHASE TO SOME DEGREE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
GULF COAST REGION THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW REACH THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF
STREAM. THE EXACT TRACK THE LOW TAKES AND HOW QUICKLY IT DEEPENS
WILL DETERMINE THE IMPACTS TO OUR AREA, IF ANY, LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL
DISAGREEMENT THAT HAS MADE IT CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE WHAT THE
OUTCOME WILL BE. ONE GENERAL CAMP OF MODELS HAS THE LOW BOMBING OUT
AND TRACKING CLOSER TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE OTHER CAMP IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE/LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, RESULTING IN A
TRACK THAT IS HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA. REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES,
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
SPARE OUR AREA FROM DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM (E.G., HEAVY SNOW
AND STRONG WINDS). WITH THAT SAID, THIS STORM STILL BARES WATCHING.
MANY OF THE MODELS FOR DAYS LEADING UP TO THE PAST TWO STORMS (THE
LATE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE ONE YESTERDAY) HAD A DISTINCT
EASTWARD BIAS IN THE TRACK. BOTH OF THESE STORMS WOUND UP TAKING
VERY SIMILAR TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND FOLLOWED THE STRONG
SST GRADIENT THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
ANOMALOUSLY WARM GULF STREAM CURRENT. ACCORDINGLY, WE FAVOR THESE
WESTERN SOLUTIONS AND HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHANCES FOR RA/SN IN DE
AND NJ. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY STILL TOO HIGH TO INCLUDE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS UPSTREAM TO A DIGGING UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY AS THE PRIMARY LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT THEY DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO WHERE
EXACTLY THE SECONDARY LOW FORMS. THESE MILLER-B TYPE SETUPS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY TRICKY. IF THE MILLER B LOW FORMS TO OUR SOUTH AND
FARTHER OFFSHORE LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM INDICATED, THEN
SETUP WOULD FAVOR LIGHTER SNOW (STARTING OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR
JUST RAIN ESPECIALLY AS YOU GET CLOSER TO THE COAST) FROM THE
PRIMARY LOW FOR OUR AREA. IF THE LOW DEVELOPS AT OUR LATITUDE AND
DEEPENS QUICKLY CLOSER TO THE COAST LIKE THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAD
INDICATED, THEN PARTS OF OUR AREA COULD BE IN LINE FOR A BAND OF
HEAVIER SNOW BACK TO THE WEST ALONG AN INVERTED/NORLUN TROUGH. SINCE
OUR SNOWFALL FORECAST ONLY GOES OUT 72 HOURS FROM NOW (THRU MONDAY
NIGHT), THE AMOUNTS ON THE WEBPAGE ONLY INCLUDE PART OF THE STORM.
DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM WPC AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES...A GENERAL 1-
2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS SINCE THEY WILL BE REFINED AS THE UNCERTAINTY DECREASES
OVER TIME.

AFTER AN ACTIVE START TO THE LONG TERM, A MORE DOCILE WEATHER
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WE COULD
SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THAT, A SHOT OF ARCTIC AREA TAKES AIM FOR THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP US DRY ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOLLOWED GUIDANCE FROM WPC/SUPER BLEND CLOSELY
IN DAYS 4-7. TEMPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE MAY NOT REACH
FREEZING LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A
SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY
BETWEEN 6 TO 8 KNOTS. INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WINDS WILL
AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A LITTLE REMAINING CIRRUS OR
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, ANY WESTWARD SHIFT
IN THE TRACK MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO EASTERN
TERMINALS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IT MAY BE WARM ENOUGH TO START OUT AS RAIN NEAR THE
COAST AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR I-95. EVENTUALLY IT WILL LIKELY TURN
OVER TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY ONCE IT CHANGES
OVER TO SNOW. THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGEOVER AND HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
SMALL RISK FOR A BRIEF RESTRICTION WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
WE LET THE SCA EXPIRE EARLY THIS MORNING FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS AS
WINDS HAVE STEADILY DECREASED AND SEAS HAVE SETTLED MOSTLY INTO
THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE. SEAS AT BUOY 44009 ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER,
CLOSER TO 5 FEET, BUT A DECREASING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO MAKING AN EXTENSION OF THE SCA FLAG UNNEEDED. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT, SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING BECOMING
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS ARE MAINLY
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS, WITH 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS INTO DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL
ATLANTIC WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. AN OFFSHORE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR N-NELY WINDS TO REACH 35 KT IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK. IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK, THEN WINDS
WILL BE WEAKER AND CAPPED AT SCA LEVELS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT COULD POTENTIAL REACH GALE
FORCE LATE WEDNESDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK OFF THE EAST
COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. A SECOND AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW CLOSELY BEHIND WITH THIS ONE DEVELOPING AS IT`S MOVING OFF
THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. WITH PERSISTENT
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AROUND THESE TWO STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO
OCCUR ACROSS OUR AREA AT A TIME WHEN ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE
ELEVATED FROM THE UPCOMING NEW MOON, THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR
COASTAL FLOODING PARTICULARLY ALONG THE NJ AND DE COASTS AS WELL
AS THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE LATEST ETSS AND NYHOPS ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE INDICATES THE POTENTIAL FOR MINOR TO PERHAPS MODERATE
COASTAL FLOODING AT TIMES OF HIGH TIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE
MORNING HIGH TIDE ON TUESDAY WILL COME WITH THE HIGHEST
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE, SO THIS ONE COULD COME WITH THE GREATEST RISK
FOR MODERATE TIDAL FLOODING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/KLINE
MARINE...KLEIN/KLINE
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 060903
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
403 AM EST SAT FEB 6 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS WEEKEND AND TRACK
NORTHEASTWARD LATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MAY DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO BUILD IN
FROM THE NORTH AND WEST DURING THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A QUIET AND PLEASANT FEBRUARY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE STRETCHING ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. OTHER
THAN SOME CIRRUS SPILLING INTO THE REGION, AMPLE SUNSHINE IS
ANTICIPATED. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS IN THE MORNING WILL INCREASE
SOME AND TAKE ON A SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON,
WITH SPEEDS AVERAGING 5 TO 10MPH. DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE RIGHT AROUND NORMAL FOR EARLY FEBRUARY, REACHING MOSTLY INTO
THE LOWER 40S, EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS NORTHWEST NJ AND THE
SOUTHERN POCONOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA
AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY MOVES EAST AND OFFSHORE. THERE MAY BE
SOME REMAINING CIRRUS ACROSS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING, AND THEN
CLEARING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO THE OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE, AS WELL. GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME
WARMING WILL BE TAKING PLACE IN THE LOW LEVELS OVERNIGHT, SO DESPITE
THE LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR CONDITIONS, MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES OVERALL SHOULD BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES MILDER THAN
FRIDAY NIGHT. WE BLENDED MET/MAV GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY AND
ANTICIPATE LOWS TO BE MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 20S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY CAPTURES TWO SEPARATE SHORTWAVE
TROUGHS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THESE
SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO PHASE TO SOME DEGREE AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
GULF COAST REGION THIS WEEKEND. SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST TO
OCCUR OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AS SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT
FALLS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LOW REACH THE WARM WATERS OF THE GULF
STREAM. THE EXACT TRACK THE LOW TAKES AND HOW QUICKLY IT DEEPENS
WILL DETERMINE THE IMPACTS TO OUR AREA, IF ANY, LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY. UNFORTUNATELY, THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MODEL
DISAGREEMENT THAT HAS MADE IT CHALLENGING TO DETERMINE WHAT THE
OUTCOME WILL BE. ONE GENERAL CAMP OF MODELS HAS THE LOW BOMBING OUT
AND TRACKING CLOSER TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE OTHER CAMP IS MORE
PROGRESSIVE/LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH, RESULTING IN A
TRACK THAT IS HARMLESSLY OUT TO SEA. REGARDLESS OF THE DIFFERENCES,
JUST ABOUT ALL OF THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE LOW FAR ENOUGH OFFSHORE TO
SPARE OUR AREA FROM DIRECT IMPACTS FROM THIS STORM (E.G., HEAVY SNOW
AND STRONG WINDS). WITH THAT SAID, THIS STORM STILL BARES WATCHING.
MANY OF THE MODELS FOR DAYS LEADING UP TO THE PAST TWO STORMS (THE
LATE JANUARY BLIZZARD AND THE ONE YESTERDAY) HAD A DISTINCT
EASTWARD BIAS IN THE TRACK. BOTH OF THESE STORMS WOUND UP TAKING
VERY SIMILAR TRACKS CLOSER TO THE COAST AND FOLLOWED THE STRONG
SST GRADIENT THAT HAS BEEN PRESENT JUST TO THE WEST OF THE
ANOMALOUSLY WARM GULF STREAM CURRENT. ACCORDINGLY, WE FAVOR THESE
WESTERN SOLUTIONS AND HAVE INTRODUCED LOW CHANCES FOR RA/SN IN DE
AND NJ. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY STILL TOO HIGH TO INCLUDE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS ALTHOUGH WE CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS.

OUR ATTENTION THEN TURNS UPSTREAM TO A DIGGING UPPER LOW OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION ON MONDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES THE EASTERN
SEABOARD, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SECONDARY CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING
OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY AS THE PRIMARY LOW
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST BUT THEY DIFFER WITH REGARDS TO WHERE
EXACTLY THE SECONDARY LOW FORMS. THESE MILLER-B TYPE SETUPS ARE
NOTORIOUSLY TRICKY. IF THE MILLER B LOW FORMS TO OUR SOUTH AND
FARTHER OFFSHORE LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF AND 00Z NAM INDICATED, THEN
SETUP WOULD FAVOR LIGHTER SNOW (STARTING OUT AS A RAIN/SNOW MIX OR
JUST RAIN ESPECIALLY AS YOU GET CLOSER TO THE COAST) FROM THE
PRIMARY LOW FOR OUR AREA. IF THE LOW DEVELOPS AT OUR LATITUDE AND
DEEPENS QUICKLY CLOSER TO THE COAST LIKE THE 00Z GFS/ECMWF/GEM HAD
INDICATED, THEN PARTS OF OUR AREA COULD BE IN LINE FOR A BAND OF
HEAVIER SNOW BACK TO THE WEST ALONG AN INVERTED/NORLUN TROUGH. SINCE
OUR SNOWFALL FORECAST ONLY GOES OUT 72 HOURS FROM NOW (THRU MONDAY
NIGHT), THE AMOUNTS ON THE WEBPAGE ONLY INCLUDE PART OF THE STORM.
DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM WPC AND NEIGHBORING OFFICES...A GENERAL 1-
2 INCHES OF SNOW FOR MONDAY NIGHT. STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST
FORECASTS SINCE THEY WILL BE REFINED AS THE UNCERTAINTY DECREASES
OVER TIME.

AFTER AN ACTIVE START TO THE LONG TERM, A MORE DOCILE WEATHER
PATTERN APPEARS TO BE IN STORE THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK. WE COULD
SEE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH ON
WEDNESDAY. BEHIND THAT, A SHOT OF ARCTIC AREA TAKES AIM FOR THE MID-
ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST STATES TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE,
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL KEEP US DRY ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FOLLOWED GUIDANCE FROM WPC/SUPER BLEND CLOSELY
IN DAYS 4-7. TEMPS ALONG AND WEST OF THE FALL LINE MAY NOT REACH
FREEZING LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY AND TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD WITH ONLY SOME CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, FOLLOWED BY A
SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS MOSTLY
BETWEEN 6 TO 8 KNOTS. INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, WINDS WILL
AGAIN BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WITH A LITTLE REMAINING CIRRUS OR
CLEAR SKIES.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR AND LIGHT WINDS.

SUNDAY NIGHT...THE GREATEST IMPACTS FROM STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN OFFSHORE. HOWEVER, ANY WESTWARD SHIFT
IN THE TRACK MAY BRING A PERIOD OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW TO EASTERN
TERMINALS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PRECIP MAY OVERSPREAD THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. IT MAY BE WARM ENOUGH TO START OUT AS RAIN NEAR THE
COAST AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX NEAR I-95. EVENTUALLY IT WILL LIKELY TURN
OVER TO SNOW FROM NW TO SE MONDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY
EVENING. POTENTIAL FOR IFR RESTRICTIONS ESPECIALLY ONCE IT CHANGES
OVER TO SNOW. THERE IS MODERATE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGEOVER AND HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARDS TO SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.

WEDNESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS. MAINLY VFR ALTHOUGH THERE IS A
SMALL RISK FOR A BRIEF RESTRICTION WITH A PASSING SNOW SHOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
WE LET THE SCA EXPIRE EARLY THIS MORNING FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS AS
WINDS HAVE STEADILY DECREASED AND SEAS HAVE SETTLED MOSTLY INTO
THE 3 TO 4 FOOT RANGE. SEAS AT BUOY 44009 ARE SLIGHTLY HIGHER,
CLOSER TO 5 FEET, BUT A DECREASING TREND WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
NEXT HOUR OR TWO MAKING AN EXTENSION OF THE SCA FLAG UNNEEDED. FOR
THE REMAINDER OF TODAY AND TONIGHT, SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE WITH WINDS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THIS MORNING BECOMING
MORE SOUTHWESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEAS ARE MAINLY
EXPECTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FEET FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS, WITH 1 TO 2 FOOT SEAS INTO DELAWARE BAY.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...NO MARINE HAZARDS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...A GALE WATCH WAS ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL
ATLANTIC WATERS FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. AN OFFSHORE LOW
IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN RAPIDLY TO OUR EAST DURING THIS TIME. THERE IS
A POTENTIAL FOR N-NELY WINDS TO REACH 35 KT IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE
WESTWARD TRACK. IF THE LOW TAKES A MORE OFFSHORE TRACK, THEN WINDS
WILL BE WEAKER AND CAPPED AT SCA LEVELS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL
DEVELOP OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME. IT COULD POTENTIAL REACH GALE
FORCE LATE WEDNESDAY BUT UNCERTAINTY IS VERY HIGH REGARDING THE
STRENGTH OF THE WINDS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLEIN
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...KLEIN
AVIATION...KLEIN/KLINE
MARINE...KLEIN/KLINE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 060224
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT, THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS
THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK OFFSHORE AS IT MOVES NORTH LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE
NEAR THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY NUDGE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE COVERED MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS
EVENING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
OVERNIGHT.

THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT, THEN SOME
CIRRUS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 4 TO 8 MPH IS FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO BE
IN THE 20S IN MUCH OF DELAWARE, NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH LESS POTENTIAL FOR MIXING
AS WELL, ONLY TOPING OUT AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY FROM A CHILLY MORNING INTO THE
LOWER 40`S FOR MOST, A LITTLE COOLER FURTHER NORTH AND IN AREAS
THAT STILL HAVE SOME SNOW COVER IN THE MORNING. NOT MUCH DEVIATION
FROM MET/MAV GUIDANCE HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
PUNCTUATED BY A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...THEN INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY BY EARLY
TUESDAY.

WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT MID- LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
THEN A SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO CREATE AN INTENSIFYING STORM AS IT MOVES
OVER THE GULF STREAM AND PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEMS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE EFFECTS OF THIS
STORM JUST OFFSHORE, BUT WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS THE
TREND FOR STORMS SO FAR THIS YEAR SEEMS TO BE FURTHER WEST. IN ANY
CASE, THIS STORM MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME TIDAL
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE`S A NEW MOON ON MONDAY. THEN
LATER MONDAY A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DIGS FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THIS
TROUGH COULD FIRE UP ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY, BUT THE SPECIFICS THIS FAR OUT ARE HARD
TO PINPOINT. CONSEQUENTLY WE WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN AS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW
DISSIPATES WHEN THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM THE
WEST...BENIGN WEATHER SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 4 TO 8 KNOTS THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY
MORNING. A SOUTHWEST WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 6 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY AS A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER AT
THE SURFACE MOVES INTO THE REGION. LOWER CIGS AND LOWER VSBYS MAY
OCCUR IN RAIN/SNOW, LASTING FROM LATE-DAY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS
UNTIL 400 AM SATURDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. SEAS ARE STILL CLOSE TO 5 OR 6 FEET OFF THE NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE COASTLINES. THIS IS A BIT OVER WHAT WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE ADVERTISED FOR THIS EVENING. SEAS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND
4 FEET BY SUNRISE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TWO COASTAL STORMS...ONE
POTENTIALLY WELL OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND A
SECOND ONE POTENTIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAY RESULT IN SCA OR EVEN GALE FORCE WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...IOVINO/MIKETTA
MARINE...GAINES/MIKETTA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 060224
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT, THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS
THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK OFFSHORE AS IT MOVES NORTH LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE
NEAR THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY NUDGE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE COVERED MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS
EVENING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
OVERNIGHT.

THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT, THEN SOME
CIRRUS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 4 TO 8 MPH IS FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO BE
IN THE 20S IN MUCH OF DELAWARE, NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH LESS POTENTIAL FOR MIXING
AS WELL, ONLY TOPING OUT AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY FROM A CHILLY MORNING INTO THE
LOWER 40`S FOR MOST, A LITTLE COOLER FURTHER NORTH AND IN AREAS
THAT STILL HAVE SOME SNOW COVER IN THE MORNING. NOT MUCH DEVIATION
FROM MET/MAV GUIDANCE HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
PUNCTUATED BY A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...THEN INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY BY EARLY
TUESDAY.

WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT MID- LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
THEN A SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO CREATE AN INTENSIFYING STORM AS IT MOVES
OVER THE GULF STREAM AND PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEMS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE EFFECTS OF THIS
STORM JUST OFFSHORE, BUT WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS THE
TREND FOR STORMS SO FAR THIS YEAR SEEMS TO BE FURTHER WEST. IN ANY
CASE, THIS STORM MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME TIDAL
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE`S A NEW MOON ON MONDAY. THEN
LATER MONDAY A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DIGS FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THIS
TROUGH COULD FIRE UP ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY, BUT THE SPECIFICS THIS FAR OUT ARE HARD
TO PINPOINT. CONSEQUENTLY WE WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN AS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW
DISSIPATES WHEN THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM THE
WEST...BENIGN WEATHER SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 4 TO 8 KNOTS THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY
MORNING. A SOUTHWEST WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 6 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY AS A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER AT
THE SURFACE MOVES INTO THE REGION. LOWER CIGS AND LOWER VSBYS MAY
OCCUR IN RAIN/SNOW, LASTING FROM LATE-DAY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS
UNTIL 400 AM SATURDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. SEAS ARE STILL CLOSE TO 5 OR 6 FEET OFF THE NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE COASTLINES. THIS IS A BIT OVER WHAT WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE ADVERTISED FOR THIS EVENING. SEAS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND
4 FEET BY SUNRISE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TWO COASTAL STORMS...ONE
POTENTIALLY WELL OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND A
SECOND ONE POTENTIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAY RESULT IN SCA OR EVEN GALE FORCE WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...IOVINO/MIKETTA
MARINE...GAINES/MIKETTA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060224
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT, THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS
THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK OFFSHORE AS IT MOVES NORTH LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE
NEAR THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY NUDGE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE COVERED MUCH OF THE EASTERN UNITED STATES THIS
EVENING. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER
OVERNIGHT.

THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLEAR UNTIL MIDNIGHT, THEN SOME
CIRRUS APPROACHING FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD
OVERHEAD.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 4 TO 8 MPH IS FORECAST TO BECOME LIGHT
AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED TO BE
IN THE 20S IN MUCH OF DELAWARE, NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA AND NEW JERSEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH LESS POTENTIAL FOR MIXING
AS WELL, ONLY TOPING OUT AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY FROM A CHILLY MORNING INTO THE
LOWER 40`S FOR MOST, A LITTLE COOLER FURTHER NORTH AND IN AREAS
THAT STILL HAVE SOME SNOW COVER IN THE MORNING. NOT MUCH DEVIATION
FROM MET/MAV GUIDANCE HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
PUNCTUATED BY A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...THEN INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY BY EARLY
TUESDAY.

WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT MID- LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
THEN A SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO CREATE AN INTENSIFYING STORM AS IT MOVES
OVER THE GULF STREAM AND PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEMS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE EFFECTS OF THIS
STORM JUST OFFSHORE, BUT WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS THE
TREND FOR STORMS SO FAR THIS YEAR SEEMS TO BE FURTHER WEST. IN ANY
CASE, THIS STORM MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME TIDAL
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE`S A NEW MOON ON MONDAY. THEN
LATER MONDAY A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DIGS FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THIS
TROUGH COULD FIRE UP ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY, BUT THE SPECIFICS THIS FAR OUT ARE HARD
TO PINPOINT. CONSEQUENTLY WE WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN AS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW
DISSIPATES WHEN THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM THE
WEST...BENIGN WEATHER SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
CIRRUS PASSING OVERHEAD.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 4 TO 8 KNOTS THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF SATURDAY
MORNING. A SOUTHWEST WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP FOR SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS INCREASING TO 6 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY AS A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER AT
THE SURFACE MOVES INTO THE REGION. LOWER CIGS AND LOWER VSBYS MAY
OCCUR IN RAIN/SNOW, LASTING FROM LATE-DAY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS
UNTIL 400 AM SATURDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE
OVERNIGHT. SEAS ARE STILL CLOSE TO 5 OR 6 FEET OFF THE NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE COASTLINES. THIS IS A BIT OVER WHAT WAVEWATCH
GUIDANCE ADVERTISED FOR THIS EVENING. SEAS SHOULD FALL TO AROUND
4 FEET BY SUNRISE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DECREASE
ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TWO COASTAL STORMS...ONE
POTENTIALLY WELL OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND A
SECOND ONE POTENTIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAY RESULT IN SCA OR EVEN GALE FORCE WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...IOVINO/MIKETTA
MARINE...GAINES/MIKETTA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 052302
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
602 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT, THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS
THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK OFFSHORE AS IT MOVES NORTH LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE
NEAR THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY NUDGE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CLEARING SKY. WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS WILL STAGE FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY THOSE WITH SOME SNOW COVER STILL IN PLACE.
WHERE SNOW IS PRESENT THE FORECAST GOES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE
MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS AND EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
ELSEWHERE THAN GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20`S
TONIGHT. SOME REFREEZING MAY OCCUR TONIGHT WITH ANY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE RESULTING IN A FEW SLICK SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH LESS POTENTIAL FOR MIXING
AS WELL, ONLY TOPING OUT AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY FROM A CHILLY MORNING INTO THE
LOWER 40`S FOR MOST, A LITTLE COOLER FURTHER NORTH AND IN AREAS
THAT STILL HAVE SOME SNOW COVER IN THE MORNING. NOT MUCH DEVIATION
FROM MET/MAV GUIDANCE HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
PUNCTUATED BY A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...THEN INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY BY EARLY
TUESDAY.

WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT MID- LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
THEN A SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO CREATE AN INTENSIFYING STORM AS IT MOVES
OVER THE GULF STREAM AND PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEMS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE EFFECTS OF THIS
STORM JUST OFFSHORE, BUT WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS THE
TREND FOR STORMS SO FAR THIS YEAR SEEMS TO BE FURTHER WEST. IN ANY
CASE, THIS STORM MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME TIDAL
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE`S A NEW MOON ON MONDAY. THEN
LATER MONDAY A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DIGS FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THIS
TROUGH COULD FIRE UP ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY, BUT THE SPECIFICS THIS FAR OUT ARE HARD
TO PINPOINT. CONSEQUENTLY WE WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN AS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW
DISSIPATES WHEN THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM THE
WEST...BENIGN WEATHER SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAFS VFR THROUGHOUT. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH THE DEPARTURE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WIND WILL DECREASE AND BECOME WESTERLY
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY AS A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER AT
THE SURFACE MOVES INTO THE REGION. LOWER CIGS AND LOWER VSBYS MAY
OCCUR IN RAIN/SNOW, LASTING FROM LATE-DAY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY HAS EXPIRED. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS UNTIL 400
AM SATURDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING.
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY LINGER ON OUR OCEAN WATERS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SEAS ARE STILL CLOSE TO 6 OR 7 FEET OFF THE
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTLINES. THIS IS A BIT OVER WHAT
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE ADVERTISES FOR THIS EVENING. WILL LOWER SEAS A
BIT SLOWER TONIGHT THAN WHAT THIS GUIDANCE SHOWS. SEAS SHOULD FALL
TO AROUND 4 FEET BY SUNRISE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DECREASE ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TWO COASTAL STORMS...ONE
POTENTIALLY WELL OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND A
SECOND ONE POTENTIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAY RESULT IN SCA OR EVEN GALE FORCE WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GAINES/MIKETTA
MARINE...GAINES/MIKETTA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 052302
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
602 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT, THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS
THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK OFFSHORE AS IT MOVES NORTH LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE
NEAR THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY NUDGE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CLEARING SKY. WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS WILL STAGE FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY THOSE WITH SOME SNOW COVER STILL IN PLACE.
WHERE SNOW IS PRESENT THE FORECAST GOES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE
MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS AND EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
ELSEWHERE THAN GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20`S
TONIGHT. SOME REFREEZING MAY OCCUR TONIGHT WITH ANY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE RESULTING IN A FEW SLICK SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH LESS POTENTIAL FOR MIXING
AS WELL, ONLY TOPING OUT AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY FROM A CHILLY MORNING INTO THE
LOWER 40`S FOR MOST, A LITTLE COOLER FURTHER NORTH AND IN AREAS
THAT STILL HAVE SOME SNOW COVER IN THE MORNING. NOT MUCH DEVIATION
FROM MET/MAV GUIDANCE HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
PUNCTUATED BY A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...THEN INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY BY EARLY
TUESDAY.

WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT MID- LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
THEN A SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO CREATE AN INTENSIFYING STORM AS IT MOVES
OVER THE GULF STREAM AND PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEMS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE EFFECTS OF THIS
STORM JUST OFFSHORE, BUT WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS THE
TREND FOR STORMS SO FAR THIS YEAR SEEMS TO BE FURTHER WEST. IN ANY
CASE, THIS STORM MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME TIDAL
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE`S A NEW MOON ON MONDAY. THEN
LATER MONDAY A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DIGS FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THIS
TROUGH COULD FIRE UP ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY, BUT THE SPECIFICS THIS FAR OUT ARE HARD
TO PINPOINT. CONSEQUENTLY WE WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN AS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW
DISSIPATES WHEN THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM THE
WEST...BENIGN WEATHER SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAFS VFR THROUGHOUT. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH THE DEPARTURE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WIND WILL DECREASE AND BECOME WESTERLY
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY AS A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER AT
THE SURFACE MOVES INTO THE REGION. LOWER CIGS AND LOWER VSBYS MAY
OCCUR IN RAIN/SNOW, LASTING FROM LATE-DAY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY HAS EXPIRED. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS UNTIL 400
AM SATURDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING.
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY LINGER ON OUR OCEAN WATERS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SEAS ARE STILL CLOSE TO 6 OR 7 FEET OFF THE
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTLINES. THIS IS A BIT OVER WHAT
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE ADVERTISES FOR THIS EVENING. WILL LOWER SEAS A
BIT SLOWER TONIGHT THAN WHAT THIS GUIDANCE SHOWS. SEAS SHOULD FALL
TO AROUND 4 FEET BY SUNRISE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DECREASE ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TWO COASTAL STORMS...ONE
POTENTIALLY WELL OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND A
SECOND ONE POTENTIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAY RESULT IN SCA OR EVEN GALE FORCE WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GAINES/MIKETTA
MARINE...GAINES/MIKETTA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 052302
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
602 PM EST FRI FEB 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT, THEN MOVE
OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTHEAST COAST IS
THEN EXPECTED TO TRACK OFFSHORE AS IT MOVES NORTH LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE
NEAR THE MID- ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN EXPECTED TO SLOWLY NUDGE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA
FROM THE WEST DURING THE LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT INTO THE REGION. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CLEARING SKY. WINDS WILL ALSO DECREASE THIS
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND A RELAXING PRESSURE
GRADIENT. THIS WILL STAGE FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
TONIGHT, PARTICULARLY THOSE WITH SOME SNOW COVER STILL IN PLACE.
WHERE SNOW IS PRESENT THE FORECAST GOES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW THE
MET AND MAV GUIDANCE SETS AND EVEN A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
ELSEWHERE THAN GUIDANCE. LOWS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 20`S
TONIGHT. SOME REFREEZING MAY OCCUR TONIGHT WITH ANY RESIDUAL
MOISTURE RESULTING IN A FEW SLICK SPOTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC TOMORROW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ACROSS
THE REGION. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH LESS POTENTIAL FOR MIXING
AS WELL, ONLY TOPING OUT AROUND 10 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON.
TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND NICELY FROM A CHILLY MORNING INTO THE
LOWER 40`S FOR MOST, A LITTLE COOLER FURTHER NORTH AND IN AREAS
THAT STILL HAVE SOME SNOW COVER IN THE MORNING. NOT MUCH DEVIATION
FROM MET/MAV GUIDANCE HERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PORTION OF THE FORECAST WILL BE
PUNCTUATED BY A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES...THEN INTO THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE COUNTRY BY EARLY
TUESDAY.

WEATHER FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE FAIRLY BENIGN AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
AT MID- LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL...PERHAPS SLIGHTLY HIGHER.
THEN A SURFACE LOW OFF THE GEORGIA COAST IS EXPECTED TO PHASE WITH
A MID-LEVEL TROUGH TO CREATE AN INTENSIFYING STORM AS IT MOVES
OVER THE GULF STREAM AND PARALLEL TO THE EAST COAST. CURRENT MODEL
GUIDANCE SEEMS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN KEEPING THE EFFECTS OF THIS
STORM JUST OFFSHORE, BUT WE`LL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THIS AS THE
TREND FOR STORMS SO FAR THIS YEAR SEEMS TO BE FURTHER WEST. IN ANY
CASE, THIS STORM MAY BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME TIDAL
FLOODING, ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE`S A NEW MOON ON MONDAY. THEN
LATER MONDAY A DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE GREAT LAKES REGION
DIGS FURTHER SOUTH INTO OUR AREA. ENERGY SWINGING AROUND THIS
TROUGH COULD FIRE UP ANOTHER LOW NEAR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST LATE
MONDAY NIGHT OR TUESDAY, BUT THE SPECIFICS THIS FAR OUT ARE HARD
TO PINPOINT. CONSEQUENTLY WE WILL KEEP CHC POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTH AND RAIN SHOWERS IN THE SOUTH FOR MONDAY
NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THEN AS A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW
DISSIPATES WHEN THE TROUGH AXIS MOVES EAST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT, AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO NUDGE IN FROM THE
WEST...BENIGN WEATHER SHOULD ONCE AGAIN RETURN TO THE AREA FOR THE
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAFS VFR THROUGHOUT. SKIES WILL CLEAR WITH THE DEPARTURE OF A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. NORTHWEST WIND WILL DECREASE AND BECOME WESTERLY
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LOWER THROUGH THE
DAY ON MONDAY AS A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED WEATHER AT
THE SURFACE MOVES INTO THE REGION. LOWER CIGS AND LOWER VSBYS MAY
OCCUR IN RAIN/SNOW, LASTING FROM LATE-DAY MONDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS TIME.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR DELAWARE BAY HAS EXPIRED. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS UNTIL 400
AM SATURDAY. NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS WILL DECREASE THIS EVENING.
WIND GUSTS AROUND 25 KNOTS MAY LINGER ON OUR OCEAN WATERS FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. SEAS ARE STILL CLOSE TO 6 OR 7 FEET OFF THE
NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COASTLINES. THIS IS A BIT OVER WHAT
WAVEWATCH GUIDANCE ADVERTISES FOR THIS EVENING. WILL LOWER SEAS A
BIT SLOWER TONIGHT THAN WHAT THIS GUIDANCE SHOWS. SEAS SHOULD FALL
TO AROUND 4 FEET BY SUNRISE. WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY
DECREASE ON SATURDAY WITH LIGHTER WINDS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...TWO COASTAL STORMS...ONE
POTENTIALLY WELL OFF THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY AND A
SECOND ONE POTENTIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST LATER MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAY RESULT IN SCA OR EVEN GALE FORCE WINDS AND BUILDING
SEAS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MIKETTA
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...MIKETTA
AVIATION...GAINES/MIKETTA
MARINE...GAINES/MIKETTA




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