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000
FXUS61 KPHI 220237
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
937 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UP ALONG THE
EAST COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE, WITH THE CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE SOUTH, WE`VE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
DELMARVA. WE`VE ALSO ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER (LESS OF IT) DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA. THE EXPECTED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO
WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

WE`VE BEEN WATCHING THE STRATUS, SOUTH OF SUFFOLK COUNTY NY, SPIN
ALL AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEFORE WE LOST DAYLIGHT, THE VISIBLE
SAT PIX SHOWED THIS FEATURE NICELY, EVEN DEPICTING A CENTER "EYE".
LOW RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROF IN THIS AREA. HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW. RADAR IS ALSO PICKING UP THE
ROTATION.

THE FEATURE IS BRINGING A SOME PRECIPITATION TO LONG ISLAND AND
CONNECTICUT, AND WELL AS NORTHEAST NJ. THIS FEATURE IS MODELED TO
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE NJ COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP TO PUSH THE LOWER STRATUS, WHICH MOVED NORTH TODAY, BACK
SOUTHWARD. IT SHOULD ALSO PUSH SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES INTO OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES ADJACENT TO OKX. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO DEPICT
THIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE CENTER OF A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PROGRESS TOWARD THE
EAST COAST THIS EVENING.

SOME HI CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM OF OUR AREA AND IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY A LEADING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE SOUTH TO NORTH LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEAST VA LATE
TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND EXPAND
NORTHWARD INTO THE DELMARVA BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE AIRMASS ON COLD
SIDE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE INITIALLY DRY SO EXPECT THE
THICKER LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO REMAIN SOUTH OF DELAWARE AND THE
EASTERN SHORE OF MD TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
AND AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. WAA DEVELOPS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IN THIS PATTERN, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NOSING
SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS EVEN WITH THE
CENTER OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH RETREATING TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. A CAD SETUP WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR ANCHORED OVER OUR
REGION WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AS IT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY.

THE LATEST 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE QUICKER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP COMPARED TO THE OTHER
OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY INITIALLY, SO
PRECIP MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND AS QUICKLY AS THE NAM INDICATES.
HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT FOR PRECIP TO EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THIS INITIAL DRY AIR,
ALLOWING THE PRECIP SHIELD TO EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
CHANCE POPS FIRST ADVERTISED IN THE MORNING FOR THE DELMARVA, MIDDAY
FOR THE SOUTHERN PHILLY SUBURBS AND LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE I-80
CORRIDOR.

PTYPE WILL PREDOMINATELY BE RAIN ON MONDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX (SNOW/SLEET) AWAY FROM THE COAST AT THE ONSET DUE
TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. THERE IS STILL NOT ENOUGH FORECAST
CERTAINTY TO PUBLISH A SNOWFALL MAP, BUT THE SETUP APPEARS LIMITED
FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS EVEN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA. WE
PREFERRED TO USE THE COOLER NAM/ECMWF FOR THERMAL PROFILES IN THIS
CAD SETUP TO DIAGNOSE POTENTIAL PTYPES AND FOR FORECASTING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. A H5 TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE COUNTRY...AND ITS EFFECTS WILL BE FOR CLOUDS AND MOSTLY RAIN
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN WILL COME AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AND MOVES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE NJ/DE COAST TUESDAY. WE HAVE CHC POPS N/W AND
LIKELY POPS S/E WITH THIS FEATURE. ON TUESDAY...THE HIGHER POPS MOVE
TO THE NORTHERN AREAS AS ONSHORE FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE
LOW REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A BREAK IN THE WET PATTERN TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES AND IT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE WEST...RESULTING IN A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE HIGH POPS
OFFERED BY WPC...WHICH ARE IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TUE NIGHT THRU
WED NIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WED NGT INTO THU.
IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY 12Z...BUT WE
HAVE LEFT IN A CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS THU MORNING...IN CASE THE
SYSTEM SLOWS UP AT ALL. IT APPEARS THAT THE P-TYPE WILL STILL BE
RAIN...SINCE THE COLDER AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR A
CHANGEOVER.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRIER WEATHER AS A SFC
HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE H5 TROUGH WILL STILL BE TO THE
WEST...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BOTH FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER LOW AND DEVELOPING FRONT MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA SAT
NIGHT INTO NEXT SUNDAY...LOW CHC POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE STRATUS THAT MOVED NORTH TODAY IS DRIFTIN BACK DOWN SOUTH
AGAIN. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE THROUGH TRENTON, HAVE JUST MOVED OVER
KPNE, AND IS HEADING TOWARD KPHL. WILL UPDATE THE TERMINALS TO REFLECT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LEFTOVER OVC STRATOCU CONTINUES TO ERODE LATE THIS AFTN OVER MOST OF
THE TERMINALS. AT 20Z, TTN AND RDG LIE ON THE EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS,
WHICH ARE YIELDING MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 FT. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT AT THESE TWO TERMINALS BY SUNSET AT THE LATEST.

VFR THIS EVE. VFR ANTICIPATED FOR MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH THE 12Z NAM DEVELOPS STRATUS FROM PHL NORTH
AND EAST, RESULTING IN MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS BETWEEN BETWEEN
09-15Z. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE, BUT WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL AS THE MARINE LAYER TRIES TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN
CONCERT WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
OTHERWISE, MID CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING. RAIN IS ALSO FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF ILG/MIV DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING,
PHL/PNE/RDG DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND ABE/TTN LATE IN
THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TUE NIGHT.
TUE NIGHT THRU THU MORNING...OCNL LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG.
THU AFTERNOON THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
TONIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY. SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT DURING
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
TUE/TUE NGT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN..SUB-SCA OVER DEL BAY.
WED THRU FRI...SCA CONDITIONS WITH LOW END GALE GUSTS WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220237
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
937 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UP ALONG THE
EAST COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE, WITH THE CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE SOUTH, WE`VE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
DELMARVA. WE`VE ALSO ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER (LESS OF IT) DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA. THE EXPECTED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO
WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

WE`VE BEEN WATCHING THE STRATUS, SOUTH OF SUFFOLK COUNTY NY, SPIN
ALL AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEFORE WE LOST DAYLIGHT, THE VISIBLE
SAT PIX SHOWED THIS FEATURE NICELY, EVEN DEPICTING A CENTER "EYE".
LOW RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROF IN THIS AREA. HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW. RADAR IS ALSO PICKING UP THE
ROTATION.

THE FEATURE IS BRINGING A SOME PRECIPITATION TO LONG ISLAND AND
CONNECTICUT, AND WELL AS NORTHEAST NJ. THIS FEATURE IS MODELED TO
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE NJ COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP TO PUSH THE LOWER STRATUS, WHICH MOVED NORTH TODAY, BACK
SOUTHWARD. IT SHOULD ALSO PUSH SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES INTO OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES ADJACENT TO OKX. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO DEPICT
THIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE CENTER OF A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PROGRESS TOWARD THE
EAST COAST THIS EVENING.

SOME HI CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM OF OUR AREA AND IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY A LEADING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE SOUTH TO NORTH LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEAST VA LATE
TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND EXPAND
NORTHWARD INTO THE DELMARVA BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE AIRMASS ON COLD
SIDE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE INITIALLY DRY SO EXPECT THE
THICKER LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO REMAIN SOUTH OF DELAWARE AND THE
EASTERN SHORE OF MD TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
AND AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. WAA DEVELOPS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IN THIS PATTERN, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NOSING
SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS EVEN WITH THE
CENTER OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH RETREATING TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. A CAD SETUP WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR ANCHORED OVER OUR
REGION WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AS IT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY.

THE LATEST 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE QUICKER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP COMPARED TO THE OTHER
OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY INITIALLY, SO
PRECIP MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND AS QUICKLY AS THE NAM INDICATES.
HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT FOR PRECIP TO EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THIS INITIAL DRY AIR,
ALLOWING THE PRECIP SHIELD TO EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
CHANCE POPS FIRST ADVERTISED IN THE MORNING FOR THE DELMARVA, MIDDAY
FOR THE SOUTHERN PHILLY SUBURBS AND LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE I-80
CORRIDOR.

PTYPE WILL PREDOMINATELY BE RAIN ON MONDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX (SNOW/SLEET) AWAY FROM THE COAST AT THE ONSET DUE
TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. THERE IS STILL NOT ENOUGH FORECAST
CERTAINTY TO PUBLISH A SNOWFALL MAP, BUT THE SETUP APPEARS LIMITED
FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS EVEN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA. WE
PREFERRED TO USE THE COOLER NAM/ECMWF FOR THERMAL PROFILES IN THIS
CAD SETUP TO DIAGNOSE POTENTIAL PTYPES AND FOR FORECASTING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. A H5 TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE COUNTRY...AND ITS EFFECTS WILL BE FOR CLOUDS AND MOSTLY RAIN
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN WILL COME AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AND MOVES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE NJ/DE COAST TUESDAY. WE HAVE CHC POPS N/W AND
LIKELY POPS S/E WITH THIS FEATURE. ON TUESDAY...THE HIGHER POPS MOVE
TO THE NORTHERN AREAS AS ONSHORE FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE
LOW REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A BREAK IN THE WET PATTERN TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES AND IT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE WEST...RESULTING IN A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE HIGH POPS
OFFERED BY WPC...WHICH ARE IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TUE NIGHT THRU
WED NIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WED NGT INTO THU.
IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY 12Z...BUT WE
HAVE LEFT IN A CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS THU MORNING...IN CASE THE
SYSTEM SLOWS UP AT ALL. IT APPEARS THAT THE P-TYPE WILL STILL BE
RAIN...SINCE THE COLDER AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR A
CHANGEOVER.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRIER WEATHER AS A SFC
HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE H5 TROUGH WILL STILL BE TO THE
WEST...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BOTH FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER LOW AND DEVELOPING FRONT MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA SAT
NIGHT INTO NEXT SUNDAY...LOW CHC POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE STRATUS THAT MOVED NORTH TODAY IS DRIFTIN BACK DOWN SOUTH
AGAIN. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE THROUGH TRENTON, HAVE JUST MOVED OVER
KPNE, AND IS HEADING TOWARD KPHL. WILL UPDATE THE TERMINALS TO REFLECT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LEFTOVER OVC STRATOCU CONTINUES TO ERODE LATE THIS AFTN OVER MOST OF
THE TERMINALS. AT 20Z, TTN AND RDG LIE ON THE EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS,
WHICH ARE YIELDING MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 FT. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT AT THESE TWO TERMINALS BY SUNSET AT THE LATEST.

VFR THIS EVE. VFR ANTICIPATED FOR MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH THE 12Z NAM DEVELOPS STRATUS FROM PHL NORTH
AND EAST, RESULTING IN MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS BETWEEN BETWEEN
09-15Z. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE, BUT WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL AS THE MARINE LAYER TRIES TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN
CONCERT WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
OTHERWISE, MID CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING. RAIN IS ALSO FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF ILG/MIV DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING,
PHL/PNE/RDG DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND ABE/TTN LATE IN
THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TUE NIGHT.
TUE NIGHT THRU THU MORNING...OCNL LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG.
THU AFTERNOON THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
TONIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY. SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT DURING
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
TUE/TUE NGT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN..SUB-SCA OVER DEL BAY.
WED THRU FRI...SCA CONDITIONS WITH LOW END GALE GUSTS WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220237
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
937 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UP ALONG THE
EAST COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE, WITH THE CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE SOUTH, WE`VE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
DELMARVA. WE`VE ALSO ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER (LESS OF IT) DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA. THE EXPECTED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO
WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

WE`VE BEEN WATCHING THE STRATUS, SOUTH OF SUFFOLK COUNTY NY, SPIN
ALL AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEFORE WE LOST DAYLIGHT, THE VISIBLE
SAT PIX SHOWED THIS FEATURE NICELY, EVEN DEPICTING A CENTER "EYE".
LOW RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROF IN THIS AREA. HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW. RADAR IS ALSO PICKING UP THE
ROTATION.

THE FEATURE IS BRINGING A SOME PRECIPITATION TO LONG ISLAND AND
CONNECTICUT, AND WELL AS NORTHEAST NJ. THIS FEATURE IS MODELED TO
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE NJ COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP TO PUSH THE LOWER STRATUS, WHICH MOVED NORTH TODAY, BACK
SOUTHWARD. IT SHOULD ALSO PUSH SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES INTO OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES ADJACENT TO OKX. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO DEPICT
THIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE CENTER OF A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PROGRESS TOWARD THE
EAST COAST THIS EVENING.

SOME HI CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM OF OUR AREA AND IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY A LEADING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE SOUTH TO NORTH LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEAST VA LATE
TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND EXPAND
NORTHWARD INTO THE DELMARVA BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE AIRMASS ON COLD
SIDE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE INITIALLY DRY SO EXPECT THE
THICKER LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO REMAIN SOUTH OF DELAWARE AND THE
EASTERN SHORE OF MD TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
AND AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. WAA DEVELOPS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IN THIS PATTERN, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NOSING
SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS EVEN WITH THE
CENTER OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH RETREATING TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. A CAD SETUP WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR ANCHORED OVER OUR
REGION WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AS IT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY.

THE LATEST 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE QUICKER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP COMPARED TO THE OTHER
OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY INITIALLY, SO
PRECIP MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND AS QUICKLY AS THE NAM INDICATES.
HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT FOR PRECIP TO EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THIS INITIAL DRY AIR,
ALLOWING THE PRECIP SHIELD TO EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
CHANCE POPS FIRST ADVERTISED IN THE MORNING FOR THE DELMARVA, MIDDAY
FOR THE SOUTHERN PHILLY SUBURBS AND LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE I-80
CORRIDOR.

PTYPE WILL PREDOMINATELY BE RAIN ON MONDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX (SNOW/SLEET) AWAY FROM THE COAST AT THE ONSET DUE
TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. THERE IS STILL NOT ENOUGH FORECAST
CERTAINTY TO PUBLISH A SNOWFALL MAP, BUT THE SETUP APPEARS LIMITED
FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS EVEN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA. WE
PREFERRED TO USE THE COOLER NAM/ECMWF FOR THERMAL PROFILES IN THIS
CAD SETUP TO DIAGNOSE POTENTIAL PTYPES AND FOR FORECASTING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. A H5 TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE COUNTRY...AND ITS EFFECTS WILL BE FOR CLOUDS AND MOSTLY RAIN
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN WILL COME AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AND MOVES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE NJ/DE COAST TUESDAY. WE HAVE CHC POPS N/W AND
LIKELY POPS S/E WITH THIS FEATURE. ON TUESDAY...THE HIGHER POPS MOVE
TO THE NORTHERN AREAS AS ONSHORE FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE
LOW REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A BREAK IN THE WET PATTERN TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES AND IT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE WEST...RESULTING IN A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE HIGH POPS
OFFERED BY WPC...WHICH ARE IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TUE NIGHT THRU
WED NIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WED NGT INTO THU.
IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY 12Z...BUT WE
HAVE LEFT IN A CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS THU MORNING...IN CASE THE
SYSTEM SLOWS UP AT ALL. IT APPEARS THAT THE P-TYPE WILL STILL BE
RAIN...SINCE THE COLDER AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR A
CHANGEOVER.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRIER WEATHER AS A SFC
HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE H5 TROUGH WILL STILL BE TO THE
WEST...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BOTH FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER LOW AND DEVELOPING FRONT MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA SAT
NIGHT INTO NEXT SUNDAY...LOW CHC POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE STRATUS THAT MOVED NORTH TODAY IS DRIFTIN BACK DOWN SOUTH
AGAIN. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE THROUGH TRENTON, HAVE JUST MOVED OVER
KPNE, AND IS HEADING TOWARD KPHL. WILL UPDATE THE TERMINALS TO REFLECT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LEFTOVER OVC STRATOCU CONTINUES TO ERODE LATE THIS AFTN OVER MOST OF
THE TERMINALS. AT 20Z, TTN AND RDG LIE ON THE EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS,
WHICH ARE YIELDING MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 FT. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT AT THESE TWO TERMINALS BY SUNSET AT THE LATEST.

VFR THIS EVE. VFR ANTICIPATED FOR MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH THE 12Z NAM DEVELOPS STRATUS FROM PHL NORTH
AND EAST, RESULTING IN MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS BETWEEN BETWEEN
09-15Z. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE, BUT WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL AS THE MARINE LAYER TRIES TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN
CONCERT WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
OTHERWISE, MID CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING. RAIN IS ALSO FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF ILG/MIV DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING,
PHL/PNE/RDG DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND ABE/TTN LATE IN
THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TUE NIGHT.
TUE NIGHT THRU THU MORNING...OCNL LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG.
THU AFTERNOON THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
TONIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY. SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT DURING
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
TUE/TUE NGT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN..SUB-SCA OVER DEL BAY.
WED THRU FRI...SCA CONDITIONS WITH LOW END GALE GUSTS WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220237
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
937 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UP ALONG THE
EAST COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

FOR THE EVENING UPDATE, WITH THE CLEAR SKIES THIS EVENING ACROSS
THE SOUTH, WE`VE ADJUSTED TEMPS DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE
DELMARVA. WE`VE ALSO ADJUSTED THE CLOUD COVER (LESS OF IT) DOWN
ACROSS THE AREA. THE EXPECTED HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO
WORK THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

WE`VE BEEN WATCHING THE STRATUS, SOUTH OF SUFFOLK COUNTY NY, SPIN
ALL AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BEFORE WE LOST DAYLIGHT, THE VISIBLE
SAT PIX SHOWED THIS FEATURE NICELY, EVEN DEPICTING A CENTER "EYE".
LOW RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROF IN THIS AREA. HIGHER
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A WEAK LOW. RADAR IS ALSO PICKING UP THE
ROTATION.

THE FEATURE IS BRINGING A SOME PRECIPITATION TO LONG ISLAND AND
CONNECTICUT, AND WELL AS NORTHEAST NJ. THIS FEATURE IS MODELED TO
SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTHWEST TOWARD THE NJ COAST OVERNIGHT. THIS SHOULD
HELP TO PUSH THE LOWER STRATUS, WHICH MOVED NORTH TODAY, BACK
SOUTHWARD. IT SHOULD ALSO PUSH SOME FLURRIES OR SPRINKLES INTO OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES ADJACENT TO OKX. GRIDS HAVE BEEN UPDATED TO DEPICT
THIS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

THE CENTER OF A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PROGRESS TOWARD THE
EAST COAST THIS EVENING.

SOME HI CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM OF OUR AREA AND IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY A LEADING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE SOUTH TO NORTH LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEAST VA LATE
TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND EXPAND
NORTHWARD INTO THE DELMARVA BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE AIRMASS ON COLD
SIDE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE INITIALLY DRY SO EXPECT THE
THICKER LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO REMAIN SOUTH OF DELAWARE AND THE
EASTERN SHORE OF MD TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
AND AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. WAA DEVELOPS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IN THIS PATTERN, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NOSING
SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS EVEN WITH THE
CENTER OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH RETREATING TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. A CAD SETUP WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR ANCHORED OVER OUR
REGION WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AS IT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY.

THE LATEST 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE QUICKER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP COMPARED TO THE OTHER
OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY INITIALLY, SO
PRECIP MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND AS QUICKLY AS THE NAM INDICATES.
HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT FOR PRECIP TO EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THIS INITIAL DRY AIR,
ALLOWING THE PRECIP SHIELD TO EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
CHANCE POPS FIRST ADVERTISED IN THE MORNING FOR THE DELMARVA, MIDDAY
FOR THE SOUTHERN PHILLY SUBURBS AND LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE I-80
CORRIDOR.

PTYPE WILL PREDOMINATELY BE RAIN ON MONDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX (SNOW/SLEET) AWAY FROM THE COAST AT THE ONSET DUE
TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. THERE IS STILL NOT ENOUGH FORECAST
CERTAINTY TO PUBLISH A SNOWFALL MAP, BUT THE SETUP APPEARS LIMITED
FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS EVEN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA. WE
PREFERRED TO USE THE COOLER NAM/ECMWF FOR THERMAL PROFILES IN THIS
CAD SETUP TO DIAGNOSE POTENTIAL PTYPES AND FOR FORECASTING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. A H5 TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE COUNTRY...AND ITS EFFECTS WILL BE FOR CLOUDS AND MOSTLY RAIN
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN WILL COME AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AND MOVES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE NJ/DE COAST TUESDAY. WE HAVE CHC POPS N/W AND
LIKELY POPS S/E WITH THIS FEATURE. ON TUESDAY...THE HIGHER POPS MOVE
TO THE NORTHERN AREAS AS ONSHORE FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE
LOW REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A BREAK IN THE WET PATTERN TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES AND IT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE WEST...RESULTING IN A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE HIGH POPS
OFFERED BY WPC...WHICH ARE IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TUE NIGHT THRU
WED NIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WED NGT INTO THU.
IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY 12Z...BUT WE
HAVE LEFT IN A CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS THU MORNING...IN CASE THE
SYSTEM SLOWS UP AT ALL. IT APPEARS THAT THE P-TYPE WILL STILL BE
RAIN...SINCE THE COLDER AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR A
CHANGEOVER.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRIER WEATHER AS A SFC
HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE H5 TROUGH WILL STILL BE TO THE
WEST...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BOTH FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER LOW AND DEVELOPING FRONT MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA SAT
NIGHT INTO NEXT SUNDAY...LOW CHC POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE STRATUS THAT MOVED NORTH TODAY IS DRIFTIN BACK DOWN SOUTH
AGAIN. THE LOW CLOUDS ARE THROUGH TRENTON, HAVE JUST MOVED OVER
KPNE, AND IS HEADING TOWARD KPHL. WILL UPDATE THE TERMINALS TO REFLECT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

LEFTOVER OVC STRATOCU CONTINUES TO ERODE LATE THIS AFTN OVER MOST OF
THE TERMINALS. AT 20Z, TTN AND RDG LIE ON THE EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS,
WHICH ARE YIELDING MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 FT. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT AT THESE TWO TERMINALS BY SUNSET AT THE LATEST.

VFR THIS EVE. VFR ANTICIPATED FOR MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH THE 12Z NAM DEVELOPS STRATUS FROM PHL NORTH
AND EAST, RESULTING IN MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS BETWEEN BETWEEN
09-15Z. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE, BUT WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL AS THE MARINE LAYER TRIES TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN
CONCERT WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
OTHERWISE, MID CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING. RAIN IS ALSO FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF ILG/MIV DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING,
PHL/PNE/RDG DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND ABE/TTN LATE IN
THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TUE NIGHT.
TUE NIGHT THRU THU MORNING...OCNL LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG.
THU AFTERNOON THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
TONIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY. SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT DURING
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
TUE/TUE NGT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN..SUB-SCA OVER DEL BAY.
WED THRU FRI...SCA CONDITIONS WITH LOW END GALE GUSTS WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 212049
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UP ALONG THE
EAST COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PROGRESS TOWARD THE
EAST COAST THIS EVENING.

SOME HI CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM OF OUR AREA AND IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY A LEADING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE SOUTH TO NORTH LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEAST VA LATE
TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND EXPAND
NORTHWARD INTO THE DELMARVA BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE AIRMASS ON COLD
SIDE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE INITIALLY DRY SO EXPECT THE
THICKER LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO REMAIN SOUTH OF DELAWARE AND THE
EASTERN SHORE OF MD TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
AND AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. WAA DEVELOPS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IN THIS PATTERN, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NOSING
SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS EVEN WITH THE
CENTER OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH RETREATING TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. A CAD SETUP WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR ANCHORED OVER OUR
REGION WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AS IT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY.

THE LATEST 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE QUICKER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP COMPARED TO THE OTHER
OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY INITIALLY, SO
PRECIP MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND AS QUICKLY AS THE NAM INDICATES.
HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT FOR PRECIP TO EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THIS INITIAL DRY AIR,
ALLOWING THE PRECIP SHIELD TO EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
CHANCE POPS FIRST ADVERTISED IN THE MORNING FOR THE DELMARVA, MIDDAY
FOR THE SOUTHERN PHILLY SUBURBS AND LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE I-80
CORRIDOR.

PTYPE WILL PREDOMINATELY BE RAIN ON MONDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX (SNOW/SLEET) AWAY FROM THE COAST AT THE ONSET DUE
TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. THERE IS STILL NOT ENOUGH FORECAST
CERTAINTY TO PUBLISH A SNOWFALL MAP, BUT THE SETUP APPEARS LIMITED
FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS EVEN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA. WE
PREFERRED TO USE THE COOLER NAM/ECMWF FOR THERMAL PROFILES IN THIS
CAD SETUP TO DIAGNOSE POTENTIAL PTYPES AND FOR FORECASTING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. A H5 TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE COUNTRY...AND ITS EFFECTS WILL BE FOR CLOUDS AND MOSTLY RAIN
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN WILL COME AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AND MOVES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE NJ/DE COAST TUESDAY. WE HAVE CHC POPS N/W AND
LIKELY POPS S/E WITH THIS FEATURE. ON TUESDAY...THE HIGHER POPS MOVE
TO THE NORTHERN AREAS AS ONSHORE FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE
LOW REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A BREAK IN THE WET PATTERN TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES AND IT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE WEST...RESULTING IN A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE HIGH POPS
OFFERED BY WPC...WHICH ARE IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TUE NIGHT THRU
WED NIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WED NGT INTO THU.
IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY 12Z...BUT WE
HAVE LEFT IN A CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS THU MORNING...IN CASE THE
SYSTEM SLOWS UP AT ALL. IT APPEARS THAT THE P-TYPE WILL STILL BE
RAIN...SINCE THE COLDER AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR A
CHANGEOVER.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRIER WEATHER AS A SFC
HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE H5 TROUGH WILL STILL BE TO THE
WEST...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BOTH FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER LOW AND DEVELOPING FRONT MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA SAT
NIGHT INTO NEXT SUNDAY...LOW CHC POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LEFTOVER OVC STRATOCU CONTINUES TO ERODE LATE THIS AFTN OVER MOST OF
THE TERMINALS. AT 20Z, TTN AND RDG LIE ON THE EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS,
WHICH ARE YIELDING MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 FT. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT AT THESE TWO TERMINALS BY SUNSET AT THE LATEST.

VFR THIS EVE. VFR ANTICIPATED FOR MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH THE 12Z NAM DEVELOPS STRATUS FROM PHL NORTH
AND EAST, RESULTING IN MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS BETWEEN BETWEEN
09-15Z. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE, BUT WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL AS THE MARINE LAYER TRIES TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN
CONCERT WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
OTHERWISE, MID CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING. RAIN IS ALSO FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF ILG/MIV DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING,
PHL/PNE/RDG DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND ABE/TTN LATE IN
THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TUE NIGHT.
TUE NIGHT THRU THU MORNING...OCNL LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG.
THU AFTERNOON THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
TONIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY. SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT DURING
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
TUE/TUE NGT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN..SUB-SCA OVER DEL BAY.
WED THRU FRI...SCA CONDITIONS WITH LOW END GALE GUSTS WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 212049
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 PM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION THIS EVENING WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHWARD UP ALONG THE
EAST COAST MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS LOW WILL BE
FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER STRONGER SYSTEM FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. A COLD
FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
THE CENTER OF A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO RIDGE SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EASTERN SEABOARD THROUGH
TONIGHT. A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL PROGRESS TOWARD THE
EAST COAST THIS EVENING.

SOME HI CLOUDS WILL SPILL INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS THE RIDGE
SHIFTS DOWNSTREAM OF OUR AREA AND IS QUICKLY REPLACED BY A LEADING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

THE SOUTH TO NORTH LOW-LEVEL THERMAL GRADIENT ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
FRONT IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES TOWARD SOUTHEAST VA LATE
TONIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE BOUNDARY AND EXPAND
NORTHWARD INTO THE DELMARVA BEFORE DAYBREAK. THE AIRMASS ON COLD
SIDE OF THIS BAROCLINIC ZONE WILL BE INITIALLY DRY SO EXPECT THE
THICKER LOW CLOUDS AND PRECIP TO REMAIN SOUTH OF DELAWARE AND THE
EASTERN SHORE OF MD TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF A WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE
AND AHEAD OF A TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL BECOME
ESTABLISHED OVER THE EASTERN CONUS ON MONDAY. WAA DEVELOPS OVER THE
FORECAST AREA IN THIS PATTERN, ESPECIALLY IN THE LOW AND MID LEVELS.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE NOSING
SOUTHWARD DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE APPALACHIANS EVEN WITH THE
CENTER OF THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH RETREATING TOWARD THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES. A CAD SETUP WILL KEEP THE COLDER AIR ANCHORED OVER OUR
REGION WITH A NORTHEASTERLY WIND NEAR THE SURFACE. THIS SHOULD
SUPPRESS THE ADVANCEMENT OF THE SURFACE WARM FRONT AS IT APPROACHES
FROM THE SOUTH ON MONDAY.

THE LATEST 12Z NAM CONTINUES TO BE QUICKER AND FARTHER NORTH WITH
THE DEVELOPMENT OF OVERRUNNING PRECIP COMPARED TO THE OTHER
OPERATIONAL MODELS. THE AIRMASS WILL BE VERY DRY INITIALLY, SO
PRECIP MAY NOT REACH THE GROUND AS QUICKLY AS THE NAM INDICATES.
HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH MOISTURE RETURN AND ISENTROPIC
LIFT FOR PRECIP TO EVENTUALLY OVERCOME THIS INITIAL DRY AIR,
ALLOWING THE PRECIP SHIELD TO EXPAND NORTHWARD THROUGH THE DAY.
CHANCE POPS FIRST ADVERTISED IN THE MORNING FOR THE DELMARVA, MIDDAY
FOR THE SOUTHERN PHILLY SUBURBS AND LATE AFTERNOON FOR THE I-80
CORRIDOR.

PTYPE WILL PREDOMINATELY BE RAIN ON MONDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX (SNOW/SLEET) AWAY FROM THE COAST AT THE ONSET DUE
TO EVAPORATIONAL COOLING. THERE IS STILL NOT ENOUGH FORECAST
CERTAINTY TO PUBLISH A SNOWFALL MAP, BUT THE SETUP APPEARS LIMITED
FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS EVEN IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF PA. WE
PREFERRED TO USE THE COOLER NAM/ECMWF FOR THERMAL PROFILES IN THIS
CAD SETUP TO DIAGNOSE POTENTIAL PTYPES AND FOR FORECASTING TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
LONG TERM. A H5 TROUGH WILL BE DEEPENING ACROSS THE MIDDLE PART OF
THE COUNTRY...AND ITS EFFECTS WILL BE FOR CLOUDS AND MOSTLY RAIN
BEGINNING MONDAY NIGHT AND PERSISTING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY MORNING. THE FIRST BATCH OF RAIN WILL COME AS WEAK LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY AND MOVES
NORTHWARD ALONG THE NJ/DE COAST TUESDAY. WE HAVE CHC POPS N/W AND
LIKELY POPS S/E WITH THIS FEATURE. ON TUESDAY...THE HIGHER POPS MOVE
TO THE NORTHERN AREAS AS ONSHORE FLOW AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE
LOW REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA.

THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH OF A BREAK IN THE WET PATTERN TUESDAY
NIGHT...ALTHOUGH SOME WEAK RIDGING WILL BE ACROSS THE AREA. ANOTHER
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
STATES AND IT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW WILL TRACK TO THE WEST...RESULTING IN A SURGE OF
WARMER AIR ACROSS THE AREA. WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THE HIGH POPS
OFFERED BY WPC...WHICH ARE IN THE CATEGORICAL RANGE TUE NIGHT THRU
WED NIGHT.

A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT WED NGT INTO THU.
IT APPEARS THAT MOST OF THE SHOWERS WILL BE DONE BY 12Z...BUT WE
HAVE LEFT IN A CHC FOR A FEW SHOWERS THU MORNING...IN CASE THE
SYSTEM SLOWS UP AT ALL. IT APPEARS THAT THE P-TYPE WILL STILL BE
RAIN...SINCE THE COLDER AIR WILL NOT ARRIVE FAST ENOUGH FOR A
CHANGEOVER.

THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRIER WEATHER AS A SFC
HIGH EXTENDS ACROSS THE AREA. THE H5 TROUGH WILL STILL BE TO THE
WEST...SO TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL BOTH FRI AND SAT.
ANOTHER LOW AND DEVELOPING FRONT MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT THE AREA SAT
NIGHT INTO NEXT SUNDAY...LOW CHC POPS ARE IN THE GRIDS FOR THIS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LEFTOVER OVC STRATOCU CONTINUES TO ERODE LATE THIS AFTN OVER MOST OF
THE TERMINALS. AT 20Z, TTN AND RDG LIE ON THE EDGE OF THESE CLOUDS,
WHICH ARE YIELDING MVFR CIGS BETWEEN 2500 AND 3000 FT. EXPECT THE
CLOUDS TO CLEAR OUT AT THESE TWO TERMINALS BY SUNSET AT THE LATEST.

VFR THIS EVE. VFR ANTICIPATED FOR MOST TERMINALS OVERNIGHT AND
MONDAY MORNING THOUGH THE 12Z NAM DEVELOPS STRATUS FROM PHL NORTH
AND EAST, RESULTING IN MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS BETWEEN BETWEEN
09-15Z. THIS MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE, BUT WILL STILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE POTENTIAL AS THE MARINE LAYER TRIES TO BECOME ESTABLISHED IN
CONCERT WITH A LIGHT NORTHEAST WIND IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER.
OTHERWISE, MID CLOUDS WILL QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST IN THE MORNING. RAIN IS ALSO FORECAST TO
DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF ILG/MIV DURING THE MID TO LATE MORNING,
PHL/PNE/RDG DURING THE EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON AND ABE/TTN LATE IN
THE DAY.

OUTLOOK...

MON NIGHT THRU TUE...MOSTLY VFR. INCREASING CLOUDS LATE TUE NIGHT.
TUE NIGHT THRU THU MORNING...OCNL LOW CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AND FOG.
THU AFTERNOON THRU FRIDAY...MOSTLY VFR. GUSTY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS.

&&

.MARINE...
LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS 5-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON WILL BECOME NORTHERLY
TONIGHT AND NORTHEASTERLY ON MONDAY. SEAS GENERALLY 1-2 FT DURING
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
MON NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS.
TUE/TUE NGT...SCA CONDITIONS ON THE OCEAN..SUB-SCA OVER DEL BAY.
WED THRU FRI...SCA CONDITIONS WITH LOW END GALE GUSTS WED NGT AND THU.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 211433
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
933 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC TODAY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND
IT SHOULD REACH ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATING OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY. THE LOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS IT
LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CENTER OF A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS ANALYZED OVER EASTERN
CANADA AT 14Z THIS MORNING. THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND RESULTANT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY UNDER THIS SETUP.

STRATOCU STILL HOLDING STRONG OVER NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHERN NJ THIS
MORNING, WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT AROUND 900 MB. THE DELMARVA IS POSITIONED IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK, RESULTING IN
OVERCAST MID CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
BAND OF CLEARING EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE CWA THAT IS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST
PA, INCLUDING PHILLY AND ADJACENT CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NJ MID
MORNING. THE CLEARING SHOULD EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD THRUOUT THE
DAY AS THE JET STREAK PROGRESSES OFF THE COAST, ALTHOUGH THE
HEATING WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STRATOCU. CLOUDS
SHOULD BE SLOWER TO ERODE OVER NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ THRU
MIDDAY, BUT SOME SUN IS ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MAX TEMP FORECAST BASED OFF
CHANGES MADE TO THE SKY GRIDS. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN
THE POCONOS TO AROUND 40F IN PHILLY, SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT SOME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT
OUR AREA WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE. ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING, BUT HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
AS THERE IS A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MOISTURE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH
WERE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY. AN
IMPULSE TRAVELING IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AT THAT TIME. WE HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE
OF RAIN ARRIVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN EVEN UP
NORTH WHERE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS THE LOWEST IN OUR
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER ATLANTIC
CANADA FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO NOSE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AT THAT TIME WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON THE TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY.

MEANWHILE, A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG OVER THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR
REGION FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE PATTERN SHOULD KEEP OUR REGION OVERCAST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. IT CONTINUES
TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING TO POSSIBLY RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE
AND IT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
REPRESENTATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF IN OUR REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW LATE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION DECREASES RAPIDLY LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. A WEST WIND AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH IS FORECAST WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BE FAST MOVING AND IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN OPPORTUNITY TO
TAP INTO A MOISTURE SOURCE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT FORECAST ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY. CLEARING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS PHILLY AREA
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WHILE ABE REMAINS OVC JUST ABOVE 3000 FT.
EXPECT SCT CIGS AROUND 3 KFT THIS AFTN FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT (BELOW 10 KT). WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH RAIN
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN
LIKELY. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD TO 5 FEET IN A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 6 TO 9
FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SOUTH WIND BECOMING WEST. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
MAY BE TO 6 TO 9 FEET.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BE TO 5 TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 211433
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
933 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC TODAY WILL DRIFT EASTWARD AND
IT SHOULD REACH ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY BEFORE MOVING
SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATING OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY. THE LOW SHOULD STRENGTHEN AS IT
LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR
REGION ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT LATE ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CENTER OF A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS ANALYZED OVER EASTERN
CANADA AT 14Z THIS MORNING. THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND RESULTANT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY UNDER THIS SETUP.

STRATOCU STILL HOLDING STRONG OVER NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHERN NJ THIS
MORNING, WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT AROUND 900 MB. THE DELMARVA IS POSITIONED IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK, RESULTING IN
OVERCAST MID CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
BAND OF CLEARING EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE CWA THAT IS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST
PA, INCLUDING PHILLY AND ADJACENT CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NJ MID
MORNING. THE CLEARING SHOULD EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD THRUOUT THE
DAY AS THE JET STREAK PROGRESSES OFF THE COAST, ALTHOUGH THE
HEATING WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STRATOCU. CLOUDS
SHOULD BE SLOWER TO ERODE OVER NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ THRU
MIDDAY, BUT SOME SUN IS ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MAX TEMP FORECAST BASED OFF
CHANGES MADE TO THE SKY GRIDS. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN
THE POCONOS TO AROUND 40F IN PHILLY, SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT SOME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT
OUR AREA WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE. ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING, BUT HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
AS THERE IS A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MOISTURE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH
WERE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY. AN
IMPULSE TRAVELING IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AT THAT TIME. WE HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE
OF RAIN ARRIVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN EVEN UP
NORTH WHERE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS THE LOWEST IN OUR
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER ATLANTIC
CANADA FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO NOSE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AT THAT TIME WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON THE TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY.

MEANWHILE, A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG OVER THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR
REGION FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE PATTERN SHOULD KEEP OUR REGION OVERCAST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. IT CONTINUES
TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING TO POSSIBLY RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE
AND IT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
REPRESENTATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF IN OUR REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW LATE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION DECREASES RAPIDLY LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. A WEST WIND AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH IS FORECAST WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BE FAST MOVING AND IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN OPPORTUNITY TO
TAP INTO A MOISTURE SOURCE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT FORECAST ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY. CLEARING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS PHILLY AREA
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WHILE ABE REMAINS OVC JUST ABOVE 3000 FT.
EXPECT SCT CIGS AROUND 3 KFT THIS AFTN FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT (BELOW 10 KT). WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH RAIN
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN
LIKELY. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD TO 5 FEET IN A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 6 TO 9
FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SOUTH WIND BECOMING WEST. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
MAY BE TO 6 TO 9 FEET.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BE TO 5 TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211432
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
932 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD REACH ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATING OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY. THE LOW SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PULL A WARM
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CENTER OF A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS ANALYZED OVER EASTERN
CANADA AT 14Z THIS MORNING. THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND RESULTANT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY UNDER THIS SETUP.

STRATOCU STILL HOLDING STRONG OVER NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHERN NJ THIS
MORNING, WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT AROUND 900 MB. THE DELMARVA IS POSITIONED IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK, RESULTING IN
OVERCAST MID CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
BAND OF CLEARING EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE CWA THAT IS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST
PA, INCLUDING PHILLY AND ADJACENT CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NJ MID
MORNING. THE CLEARING SHOULD EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD THRUOUT THE
DAY AS THE JET STREAK PROGRESSES OFF THE COAST, ALTHOUGH THE
HEATING WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STRATOCU. CLOUDS
SHOULD BE SLOWER TO ERODE OVER NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ THRU
MIDDAY, BUT SOME SUN IS ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MAX TEMP FORECAST BASED OFF
CHANGES MADE TO THE SKY GRIDS. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN
THE POCONOS TO AROUND 40F IN PHILLY, SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT SOME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT
OUR AREA WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE. ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING, BUT HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
AS THERE IS A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MOISTURE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH
WERE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY. AN
IMPULSE TRAVELING IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AT THAT TIME. WE HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE
OF RAIN ARRIVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN EVEN UP
NORTH WHERE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS THE LOWEST IN OUR
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER ATLANTIC
CANADA FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO NOSE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AT THAT TIME WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON THE TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY.

MEANWHILE, A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG OVER THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR
REGION FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE PATTERN SHOULD KEEP OUR REGION OVERCAST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. IT CONTINUES
TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING TO POSSIBLY RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE
AND IT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
REPRESENTATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF IN OUR REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW LATE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION DECREASES RAPIDLY LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. A WEST WIND AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH IS FORECAST WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BE FAST MOVING AND IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN OPPORTUNITY TO
TAP INTO A MOISTURE SOURCE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT FORECAST ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY. CLEARING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS PHILLY AREA
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WHILE ABE REMAINS OVC JUST ABOVE 3000 FT.
EXPECT SCT CIGS AROUND 3 KFT THIS AFTN FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT (BELOW 10 KT). WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH RAIN
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN
LIKELY. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD TO 5 FEET IN A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 6 TO 9
FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SOUTH WIND BECOMING WEST. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
MAY BE TO 6 TO 9 FEET.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BE TO 5 TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211432
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
932 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD REACH ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATING OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY. THE LOW SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PULL A WARM
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CENTER OF A 1030 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS ANALYZED OVER EASTERN
CANADA AT 14Z THIS MORNING. THIS BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
ENCOMPASSES MOST OF THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND RESULTANT WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
TODAY UNDER THIS SETUP.

STRATOCU STILL HOLDING STRONG OVER NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHERN NJ THIS
MORNING, WHERE HIGHER MOISTURE IN ASSOCIATION WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO OUR NORTHEAST REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION AT AROUND 900 MB. THE DELMARVA IS POSITIONED IN
THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF MID-LEVEL JET STREAK, RESULTING IN
OVERCAST MID CLOUDS IN OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. HOWEVER, THERE IS A
BAND OF CLEARING EVIDENT ON THE LATEST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
IN THE MIDDLE PART OF THE CWA THAT IS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHEAST
PA, INCLUDING PHILLY AND ADJACENT CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NJ MID
MORNING. THE CLEARING SHOULD EXPAND SOUTH AND EASTWARD THRUOUT THE
DAY AS THE JET STREAK PROGRESSES OFF THE COAST, ALTHOUGH THE
HEATING WILL LEAD TO DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED STRATOCU. CLOUDS
SHOULD BE SLOWER TO ERODE OVER NORTHEAST PA AND NORTHWEST NJ THRU
MIDDAY, BUT SOME SUN IS ANTICIPATED LATER IN THE AFTERNOON.

ONLY MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE MAX TEMP FORECAST BASED OFF
CHANGES MADE TO THE SKY GRIDS. MAX TEMPS RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S IN
THE POCONOS TO AROUND 40F IN PHILLY, SOUTHERN NJ AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT SOME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT
OUR AREA WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE. ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING, BUT HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
AS THERE IS A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MOISTURE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH
WERE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY. AN
IMPULSE TRAVELING IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AT THAT TIME. WE HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE
OF RAIN ARRIVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN EVEN UP
NORTH WHERE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS THE LOWEST IN OUR
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER ATLANTIC
CANADA FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO NOSE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AT THAT TIME WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON THE TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY.

MEANWHILE, A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG OVER THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR
REGION FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE PATTERN SHOULD KEEP OUR REGION OVERCAST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. IT CONTINUES
TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING TO POSSIBLY RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE
AND IT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
REPRESENTATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF IN OUR REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW LATE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION DECREASES RAPIDLY LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. A WEST WIND AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH IS FORECAST WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BE FAST MOVING AND IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN OPPORTUNITY TO
TAP INTO A MOISTURE SOURCE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT FORECAST ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY. CLEARING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS PHILLY AREA
TERMINALS THIS MORNING WHILE ABE REMAINS OVC JUST ABOVE 3000 FT.
EXPECT SCT CIGS AROUND 3 KFT THIS AFTN FOR ALL TERMINALS. WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT (BELOW 10 KT). WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE/CALM ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH RAIN
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN
LIKELY. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD TO 5 FEET IN A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 6 TO 9
FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SOUTH WIND BECOMING WEST. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
MAY BE TO 6 TO 9 FEET.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BE TO 5 TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLEIN/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 210905
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD REACH ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATING OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY. THE LOW SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PULL A WARM
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM EASTERN CANADA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE EFFECTS OF THE WIDE SWATH OF STRATO CUMULUS
CLOUD COVER THAT HAS PLAGUED OUR AREA THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, WHILE
THE SOUTHERN HALF HAS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST
THIS MORNING. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, IT MAY HELP SCATTER OUT SOME OF
THE LOW STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS, BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ITS
OWN CLOUD COVER. SO OVERALL A OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY, WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE
BY THE END OF THE DAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THIS SHORT WAVE SINCE THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE,
EVIDENT FROM PW VALUES AROUND ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH.
ALSO, THE GREATEST LOW-MID LEVEL LIFT IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
ACROSS CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK. THE TROUGH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH, SO ANY SHOWERS SHOULD STAY TO
OUR NORTH. IF ANYTHING DID GET SQUEEZED OUT AS THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH, IT SHOULD ONLY BE FLURRIES, BUT WE WILL KEEP THIS
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH
WERE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT SOME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT
OUR AREA WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE. ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING, BUT HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
AS THERE IS A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MOISTURE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH
WERE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY. AN
IMPULSE TRAVELING IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AT THAT TIME. WE HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE
OF RAIN ARRIVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN EVEN UP
NORTH WHERE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS THE LOWEST IN OUR
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER ATLANTIC
CANADA FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO NOSE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AT THAT TIME WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON THE TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY.

MEANWHILE, A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG OVER THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR
REGION FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE PATTERN SHOULD KEEP OUR REGION OVERCAST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. IT CONTINUES
TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING TO POSSIBLY RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE
AND IT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
REPRESENTATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF IN OUR REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW LATE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION DECREASES RAPIDLY LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. A WEST WIND AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH IS FORECAST WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BE FAST MOVING AND IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN OPPORTUNITY TO
TAP INTO A MOISTURE SOURCE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT FORECAST ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA, WITH MVFR CIGS IN PLACE AT ABE. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN VFR, ESPECIALLY AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THOSE AREAS THAT ARE MVFR ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR
LATER THIS MORNING. ONCE EVERYONE BECOMES VFR, THEY SHOULD REMAIN
SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AROUND 5-8 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH RAIN
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN
LIKELY. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD TO 5 FEET IN A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 6 TO 9
FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SOUTH WIND BECOMING WEST. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
MAY BE TO 6 TO 9 FEET.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BE TO 5 TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210905
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD REACH ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATING OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY. THE LOW SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PULL A WARM
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM EASTERN CANADA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE EFFECTS OF THE WIDE SWATH OF STRATO CUMULUS
CLOUD COVER THAT HAS PLAGUED OUR AREA THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, WHILE
THE SOUTHERN HALF HAS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST
THIS MORNING. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, IT MAY HELP SCATTER OUT SOME OF
THE LOW STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS, BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ITS
OWN CLOUD COVER. SO OVERALL A OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY, WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE
BY THE END OF THE DAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THIS SHORT WAVE SINCE THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE,
EVIDENT FROM PW VALUES AROUND ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH.
ALSO, THE GREATEST LOW-MID LEVEL LIFT IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
ACROSS CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK. THE TROUGH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH, SO ANY SHOWERS SHOULD STAY TO
OUR NORTH. IF ANYTHING DID GET SQUEEZED OUT AS THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH, IT SHOULD ONLY BE FLURRIES, BUT WE WILL KEEP THIS
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH
WERE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT SOME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT
OUR AREA WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE. ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING, BUT HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
AS THERE IS A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MOISTURE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH
WERE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY. AN
IMPULSE TRAVELING IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AT THAT TIME. WE HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE
OF RAIN ARRIVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN EVEN UP
NORTH WHERE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS THE LOWEST IN OUR
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER ATLANTIC
CANADA FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO NOSE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AT THAT TIME WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON THE TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY.

MEANWHILE, A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG OVER THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR
REGION FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE PATTERN SHOULD KEEP OUR REGION OVERCAST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. IT CONTINUES
TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING TO POSSIBLY RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE
AND IT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
REPRESENTATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF IN OUR REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW LATE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION DECREASES RAPIDLY LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. A WEST WIND AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH IS FORECAST WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BE FAST MOVING AND IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN OPPORTUNITY TO
TAP INTO A MOISTURE SOURCE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT FORECAST ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA, WITH MVFR CIGS IN PLACE AT ABE. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN VFR, ESPECIALLY AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THOSE AREAS THAT ARE MVFR ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR
LATER THIS MORNING. ONCE EVERYONE BECOMES VFR, THEY SHOULD REMAIN
SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AROUND 5-8 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH RAIN
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN
LIKELY. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD TO 5 FEET IN A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 6 TO 9
FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SOUTH WIND BECOMING WEST. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
MAY BE TO 6 TO 9 FEET.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BE TO 5 TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210905
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD REACH ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATING OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY. THE LOW SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PULL A WARM
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM EASTERN CANADA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE EFFECTS OF THE WIDE SWATH OF STRATO CUMULUS
CLOUD COVER THAT HAS PLAGUED OUR AREA THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, WHILE
THE SOUTHERN HALF HAS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST
THIS MORNING. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, IT MAY HELP SCATTER OUT SOME OF
THE LOW STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS, BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ITS
OWN CLOUD COVER. SO OVERALL A OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY, WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE
BY THE END OF THE DAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THIS SHORT WAVE SINCE THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE,
EVIDENT FROM PW VALUES AROUND ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH.
ALSO, THE GREATEST LOW-MID LEVEL LIFT IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
ACROSS CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK. THE TROUGH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH, SO ANY SHOWERS SHOULD STAY TO
OUR NORTH. IF ANYTHING DID GET SQUEEZED OUT AS THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH, IT SHOULD ONLY BE FLURRIES, BUT WE WILL KEEP THIS
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH
WERE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT SOME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT
OUR AREA WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE. ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING, BUT HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
AS THERE IS A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MOISTURE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH
WERE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY. AN
IMPULSE TRAVELING IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AT THAT TIME. WE HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE
OF RAIN ARRIVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN EVEN UP
NORTH WHERE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS THE LOWEST IN OUR
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER ATLANTIC
CANADA FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO NOSE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AT THAT TIME WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON THE TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY.

MEANWHILE, A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG OVER THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR
REGION FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE PATTERN SHOULD KEEP OUR REGION OVERCAST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. IT CONTINUES
TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING TO POSSIBLY RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE
AND IT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
REPRESENTATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF IN OUR REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW LATE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION DECREASES RAPIDLY LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. A WEST WIND AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH IS FORECAST WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BE FAST MOVING AND IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN OPPORTUNITY TO
TAP INTO A MOISTURE SOURCE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT FORECAST ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA, WITH MVFR CIGS IN PLACE AT ABE. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN VFR, ESPECIALLY AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THOSE AREAS THAT ARE MVFR ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR
LATER THIS MORNING. ONCE EVERYONE BECOMES VFR, THEY SHOULD REMAIN
SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AROUND 5-8 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH RAIN
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN
LIKELY. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD TO 5 FEET IN A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 6 TO 9
FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SOUTH WIND BECOMING WEST. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
MAY BE TO 6 TO 9 FEET.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BE TO 5 TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210905
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 AM EST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING WILL DRIFT
EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD REACH ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY. WEAK LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY
BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATING OFF THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA ON TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AROUND THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY. THE LOW SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PULL A WARM
FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT
LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FROM
THE SOUTHWEST FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FROM THE
WEST IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE FROM EASTERN CANADA
SOUTHWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE EAST COAST. THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA REMAINS UNDER THE EFFECTS OF THE WIDE SWATH OF STRATO CUMULUS
CLOUD COVER THAT HAS PLAGUED OUR AREA THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS, WHILE
THE SOUTHERN HALF HAS MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER. THE CLOUD COVER
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHARP SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT IS APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST
THIS MORNING. AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON, IT MAY HELP SCATTER OUT SOME OF
THE LOW STRATO CUMULUS CLOUDS, BUT IT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING ITS
OWN CLOUD COVER. SO OVERALL A OVERCAST TO MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY IS
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE DAY, WITH SOME PARTIAL CLEARING POSSIBLE
BY THE END OF THE DAY. WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS
THE AREA WITH THIS SHORT WAVE SINCE THERE IS LIMITED MOISTURE,
EVIDENT FROM PW VALUES AROUND ONE-QUARTER TO ONE-THIRD OF AN INCH.
ALSO, THE GREATEST LOW-MID LEVEL LIFT IS FORECAST TO BE TO OUR
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MORNING, ASSOCIATED WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH
ACROSS CONNECTICUT AND SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK. THE TROUGH IS NOT
EXPECTED TO MAKE IT THIS FAR SOUTH, SO ANY SHOWERS SHOULD STAY TO
OUR NORTH. IF ANYTHING DID GET SQUEEZED OUT AS THE SHORT WAVE
MOVES THROUGH, IT SHOULD ONLY BE FLURRIES, BUT WE WILL KEEP THIS
OUT OF THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH
WERE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO RETREAT SOME OVERNIGHT TONIGHT, BUT
OUR AREA WILL STILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE. ANY PARTIAL
CLEARING THAT OCCURRED DURING THE DAY WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING, BUT HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER MAY BEGIN TO DEVELOP AND
SPREAD BACK INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA. WE ARE NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIPITATION OVERNIGHT
AS THERE IS A LACK OF SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL MOISTURE.

LOW TEMPERATURES ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH
WERE ALL IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST ON MONDAY. AN
IMPULSE TRAVELING IN THE MID LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTH AT THAT TIME. WE HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE
OF RAIN ARRIVING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE FORECAST TEMPERATURE PROFILES SUGGEST
THAT THE BOUNDARY LAYER WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPORT ALL RAIN EVEN UP
NORTH WHERE THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION IS THE LOWEST IN OUR
REGION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER ATLANTIC
CANADA FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO NOSE
SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE APPALACHIANS AT THAT TIME WITH
AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF THE COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS
ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON THE TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST TO REMAIN WEAK AS IT DRIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA
BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY.

MEANWHILE, A DEEP MID LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DIG OVER THE
MIDDLE PART OF THE COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE RIDGE OVER
THE WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC BECOMES MORE PRONOUNCED. THE PATTERN
WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONG WARM ADVECTION OVER OUR
REGION FROM TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THE PATTERN SHOULD KEEP OUR REGION OVERCAST WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN
FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY WITH THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION INCREASING TO LIKELY FOR TUESDAY NIGHT. IT CONTINUES
TO APPEAR AS THOUGH THERE MAY BE POCKETS OF BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY FROM
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING TO POSSIBLY RESULT IN SOME
LOCALIZED LIGHT FREEZING RAIN.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP AROUND THE CENTRAL
GULF COAST REGION ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DEEP MID LEVEL
TROUGH. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES NORTHWARD ON
WEDNESDAY AND ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE
AND IT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAINFALL TO OUR REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE CONSENSUS OF THE MODELS CONTINUES TO SUGGEST
REPRESENTATIVE RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO AN INCH TO AN INCH AND A
HALF IN OUR REGION DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 50S AND
LOWER 60S. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW LATE ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE UPPER 30S
AND LOWER 40S BY DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF
PRECIPITATION DECREASES RAPIDLY LATE ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BECOME QUITE BREEZY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT FOR CHRISTMAS DAY. A WEST WIND AROUND
15 TO 20 MPH IS FORECAST WITH GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. TEMPERATURES
SHOULD RETURN TO SEASONABLE LEVELS FOR THURSDAY, FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ANTICIPATED.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST
TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION ON SATURDAY. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
BE FAST MOVING AND IT SHOULD NOT HAVE MUCH OF AN OPPORTUNITY TO
TAP INTO A MOISTURE SOURCE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL NOT FORECAST ANY
PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW-LEVEL CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA, WITH MVFR CIGS IN PLACE AT ABE. THE REST OF THE AREA SHOULD
REMAIN VFR, ESPECIALLY AS MID-LEVEL CLOUDS MOVE IN FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THOSE AREAS THAT ARE MVFR ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME VFR
LATER THIS MORNING. ONCE EVERYONE BECOMES VFR, THEY SHOULD REMAIN
SO THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BECOME NORTH TO
NORTHWEST AROUND 5-8 KNOTS OR LESS DURING THE DAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH RAIN
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN
LIKELY. THE RAIN MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES.

THURSDAY...CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO VFR WITH A GUSTY WEST WIND.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT
THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD TO 5 FEET IN A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 6 TO 9
FEET.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...A SOUTH WIND BECOMING WEST. WIND GUSTS IN
EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS
MAY BE TO 6 TO 9 FEET.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BE TO 5 TO 7 FEET.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210216
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
916 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION
FROM ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE
OFF THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC...LEADING TO A
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND A WEAKER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION,
ESPECIALLY PHILLY NORTH. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP SOUTH OF
PHILLY, BUT SKIES WILL FILL UP AGAIN AS A MID-LEVEL DECK ADVECTS
IN OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE.

THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP THE CWA PRECIP-FREE(MEASURABLE)
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS DOES THE LOWER RES MODELS. WE`LL KEEP THE
GRIDS AS IS, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 20S
NORTH AND MID OR UPPER 20S SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA SUN MORNING...UPPER RIDGING
WILL TAKE PLACE. THIS WILL HOPEFULLY ALLOW MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA. WE HAVE WRITTEN A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FCST FOR NOW. WE HELD
ONTO SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS HOWEVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...WHILE READINGS HOLD IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH/WEST AREAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST.
* INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE WITH
  TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
* BRISK WESTERLY WIND CHRISTMAS DAY W/FLURRIES POSSIBLE.

OVERVIEW...

VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ACCOMPANYING 160 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL
JET MAX COMING ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND
WILL LEAD TO A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID-WEEK.
INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS EJECTED NORTHEAST
AND WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. THIS WEAK FEATURE SHOULD TRACK OFFSHORE WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY PER TODAYS 12Z UKMET AND GFS...
FEEL THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE TOO FAR NORTH, SLOW, AND DEEP W/THIS
FEATURE...THUS THEY ALSO CRANK OUT TOO MUCH QPF. NEVERTHELESS...
QPF COMBINED WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES OVER THE NORTHWEST
COULD SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL FLOW
THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL...PUMPING ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AND MOIST AIR UP THE EAST COAST...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAIN
ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT CROSSES THE REGION...LEADING TO A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE ON THE
BACK-SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...W/SURFACE
HIGH ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST IN A COLD-AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY INSENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE
COLDER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE DAY AS MOISTURE
STREAMS IN ALOFT AND LOW-LEVELS GRADUALLY SATURATE. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD AIR
IS REINFORCED W/NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND PRECIP LEADS TO
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...
ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING REMAINS WELL TO
THE WEST...BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THRU THE DAY. QPF SHOULD BE GENERALLY
LIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...
A VIGOROUS TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST W/STILL SOME SPREAD NOTED
FROM THE MEAN IN BOTH THE ECENS AND GEFS 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELDS...
INDICATING SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO WHAT DEGREE IT GOES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. NEVERTHELESS...A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR UP TO 1-2 INCHES OF QPF...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOTING A STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX AND THE
LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A 160 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE
APPALACHIANS. ALSO NOTING STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH /2-3 STANDARD DEVIATION/ PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STREAMING
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THUS THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
ASCENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...W/THE MODELS KEYING IN ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIP...AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY
DUE TO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL CHRISTMAS EVE. LATER SHIFTS WILL ALSO
NEED TO FURTHER EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
AND CONVECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOW-PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC AND HIGH-PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS AND THERE
COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY...
PARTICULARLY NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION...BUT IT/S TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS MID-WEEK COULD ADD TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THERE HAS BEEN PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE
INVERSION AGAIN TODAY. CIGS WERE BETWEEN 025-035 ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING WE`RE SEEING MORE 030-035. STILL,
MOSTLY IN THE NORTH QUADRANT.

WE`LL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE TERMINALS FROM KPHL NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TO THE SOUTH, WE`VE SCATTERED THE LOW LEVEL
DECK OUT. A SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME ALTOCU TO JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
MENTIONED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...VFR.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AS MARINE LAYER BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND STRATUS ADVECTS INLAND.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND IN-SITU CAD FROM LIGHT RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS COULD YIELD AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS (CIGS WOULD BE THE MORE LIKELY CONTRIBUTOR TO
IFR THAN VSBYS) MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS VEER MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
HEAVIEST DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PREDOMINATELY MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FOLLOWING
WARM FROPA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU SOMETIME AT
NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF
FROPA.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WINDS COULD BECOME STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY WITH BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12Z GFS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA FLAG CRITERIA. WINDS WILL
MOSTLY BE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS ON TUESDAY.
WINDS 15-20 KT FORECAST ON TUESDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
5-6 FEET TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WARRANTING THE NEED FOR A SCA.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AFTER
WARM FROPA. DESPITE WINDS OF 40-50 KT FORECAST 1000 FT ABOVE THE
SURFACE, THERMAL PROFILES NOT FAVORABLE FOR MIXING WITH THE SETUP OF
WARM AIR MOVING ATOP THE COOLER WATERS. EXPECTING MORE OF A HIGH END
SCA WITH 25-30 KT WINDS. WINDS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL STILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE WATERS. SEAS FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 6-8 FEET.

THURSDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED. GALES CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210216
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
916 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION
FROM ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE
OFF THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC...LEADING TO A
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND A WEAKER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION,
ESPECIALLY PHILLY NORTH. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP SOUTH OF
PHILLY, BUT SKIES WILL FILL UP AGAIN AS A MID-LEVEL DECK ADVECTS
IN OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE.

THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP THE CWA PRECIP-FREE(MEASURABLE)
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS DOES THE LOWER RES MODELS. WE`LL KEEP THE
GRIDS AS IS, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 20S
NORTH AND MID OR UPPER 20S SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA SUN MORNING...UPPER RIDGING
WILL TAKE PLACE. THIS WILL HOPEFULLY ALLOW MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA. WE HAVE WRITTEN A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FCST FOR NOW. WE HELD
ONTO SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS HOWEVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...WHILE READINGS HOLD IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH/WEST AREAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST.
* INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE WITH
  TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
* BRISK WESTERLY WIND CHRISTMAS DAY W/FLURRIES POSSIBLE.

OVERVIEW...

VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ACCOMPANYING 160 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL
JET MAX COMING ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND
WILL LEAD TO A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID-WEEK.
INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS EJECTED NORTHEAST
AND WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. THIS WEAK FEATURE SHOULD TRACK OFFSHORE WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY PER TODAYS 12Z UKMET AND GFS...
FEEL THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE TOO FAR NORTH, SLOW, AND DEEP W/THIS
FEATURE...THUS THEY ALSO CRANK OUT TOO MUCH QPF. NEVERTHELESS...
QPF COMBINED WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES OVER THE NORTHWEST
COULD SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL FLOW
THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL...PUMPING ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AND MOIST AIR UP THE EAST COAST...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAIN
ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT CROSSES THE REGION...LEADING TO A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE ON THE
BACK-SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...W/SURFACE
HIGH ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST IN A COLD-AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY INSENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE
COLDER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE DAY AS MOISTURE
STREAMS IN ALOFT AND LOW-LEVELS GRADUALLY SATURATE. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD AIR
IS REINFORCED W/NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND PRECIP LEADS TO
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...
ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING REMAINS WELL TO
THE WEST...BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THRU THE DAY. QPF SHOULD BE GENERALLY
LIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...
A VIGOROUS TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST W/STILL SOME SPREAD NOTED
FROM THE MEAN IN BOTH THE ECENS AND GEFS 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELDS...
INDICATING SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO WHAT DEGREE IT GOES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. NEVERTHELESS...A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR UP TO 1-2 INCHES OF QPF...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOTING A STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX AND THE
LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A 160 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE
APPALACHIANS. ALSO NOTING STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH /2-3 STANDARD DEVIATION/ PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STREAMING
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THUS THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
ASCENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...W/THE MODELS KEYING IN ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIP...AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY
DUE TO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL CHRISTMAS EVE. LATER SHIFTS WILL ALSO
NEED TO FURTHER EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
AND CONVECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOW-PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC AND HIGH-PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS AND THERE
COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY...
PARTICULARLY NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION...BUT IT/S TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS MID-WEEK COULD ADD TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THERE HAS BEEN PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE
INVERSION AGAIN TODAY. CIGS WERE BETWEEN 025-035 ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING WE`RE SEEING MORE 030-035. STILL,
MOSTLY IN THE NORTH QUADRANT.

WE`LL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE TERMINALS FROM KPHL NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TO THE SOUTH, WE`VE SCATTERED THE LOW LEVEL
DECK OUT. A SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME ALTOCU TO JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
MENTIONED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...VFR.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AS MARINE LAYER BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND STRATUS ADVECTS INLAND.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND IN-SITU CAD FROM LIGHT RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS COULD YIELD AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS (CIGS WOULD BE THE MORE LIKELY CONTRIBUTOR TO
IFR THAN VSBYS) MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS VEER MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
HEAVIEST DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PREDOMINATELY MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FOLLOWING
WARM FROPA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU SOMETIME AT
NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF
FROPA.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WINDS COULD BECOME STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY WITH BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12Z GFS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA FLAG CRITERIA. WINDS WILL
MOSTLY BE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS ON TUESDAY.
WINDS 15-20 KT FORECAST ON TUESDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
5-6 FEET TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WARRANTING THE NEED FOR A SCA.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AFTER
WARM FROPA. DESPITE WINDS OF 40-50 KT FORECAST 1000 FT ABOVE THE
SURFACE, THERMAL PROFILES NOT FAVORABLE FOR MIXING WITH THE SETUP OF
WARM AIR MOVING ATOP THE COOLER WATERS. EXPECTING MORE OF A HIGH END
SCA WITH 25-30 KT WINDS. WINDS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL STILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE WATERS. SEAS FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 6-8 FEET.

THURSDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED. GALES CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210216
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
916 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION
FROM ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE
OFF THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC...LEADING TO A
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND A WEAKER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION,
ESPECIALLY PHILLY NORTH. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP SOUTH OF
PHILLY, BUT SKIES WILL FILL UP AGAIN AS A MID-LEVEL DECK ADVECTS
IN OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE.

THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP THE CWA PRECIP-FREE(MEASURABLE)
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS DOES THE LOWER RES MODELS. WE`LL KEEP THE
GRIDS AS IS, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 20S
NORTH AND MID OR UPPER 20S SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA SUN MORNING...UPPER RIDGING
WILL TAKE PLACE. THIS WILL HOPEFULLY ALLOW MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA. WE HAVE WRITTEN A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FCST FOR NOW. WE HELD
ONTO SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS HOWEVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...WHILE READINGS HOLD IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH/WEST AREAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST.
* INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE WITH
  TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
* BRISK WESTERLY WIND CHRISTMAS DAY W/FLURRIES POSSIBLE.

OVERVIEW...

VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ACCOMPANYING 160 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL
JET MAX COMING ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND
WILL LEAD TO A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID-WEEK.
INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS EJECTED NORTHEAST
AND WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. THIS WEAK FEATURE SHOULD TRACK OFFSHORE WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY PER TODAYS 12Z UKMET AND GFS...
FEEL THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE TOO FAR NORTH, SLOW, AND DEEP W/THIS
FEATURE...THUS THEY ALSO CRANK OUT TOO MUCH QPF. NEVERTHELESS...
QPF COMBINED WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES OVER THE NORTHWEST
COULD SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL FLOW
THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL...PUMPING ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AND MOIST AIR UP THE EAST COAST...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAIN
ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT CROSSES THE REGION...LEADING TO A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE ON THE
BACK-SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...W/SURFACE
HIGH ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST IN A COLD-AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY INSENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE
COLDER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE DAY AS MOISTURE
STREAMS IN ALOFT AND LOW-LEVELS GRADUALLY SATURATE. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD AIR
IS REINFORCED W/NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND PRECIP LEADS TO
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...
ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING REMAINS WELL TO
THE WEST...BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THRU THE DAY. QPF SHOULD BE GENERALLY
LIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...
A VIGOROUS TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST W/STILL SOME SPREAD NOTED
FROM THE MEAN IN BOTH THE ECENS AND GEFS 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELDS...
INDICATING SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO WHAT DEGREE IT GOES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. NEVERTHELESS...A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR UP TO 1-2 INCHES OF QPF...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOTING A STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX AND THE
LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A 160 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE
APPALACHIANS. ALSO NOTING STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH /2-3 STANDARD DEVIATION/ PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STREAMING
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THUS THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
ASCENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...W/THE MODELS KEYING IN ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIP...AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY
DUE TO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL CHRISTMAS EVE. LATER SHIFTS WILL ALSO
NEED TO FURTHER EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
AND CONVECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOW-PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC AND HIGH-PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS AND THERE
COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY...
PARTICULARLY NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION...BUT IT/S TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS MID-WEEK COULD ADD TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THERE HAS BEEN PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE
INVERSION AGAIN TODAY. CIGS WERE BETWEEN 025-035 ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING WE`RE SEEING MORE 030-035. STILL,
MOSTLY IN THE NORTH QUADRANT.

WE`LL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE TERMINALS FROM KPHL NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TO THE SOUTH, WE`VE SCATTERED THE LOW LEVEL
DECK OUT. A SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME ALTOCU TO JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
MENTIONED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...VFR.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AS MARINE LAYER BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND STRATUS ADVECTS INLAND.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND IN-SITU CAD FROM LIGHT RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS COULD YIELD AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS (CIGS WOULD BE THE MORE LIKELY CONTRIBUTOR TO
IFR THAN VSBYS) MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS VEER MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
HEAVIEST DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PREDOMINATELY MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FOLLOWING
WARM FROPA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU SOMETIME AT
NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF
FROPA.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WINDS COULD BECOME STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY WITH BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12Z GFS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA FLAG CRITERIA. WINDS WILL
MOSTLY BE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS ON TUESDAY.
WINDS 15-20 KT FORECAST ON TUESDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
5-6 FEET TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WARRANTING THE NEED FOR A SCA.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AFTER
WARM FROPA. DESPITE WINDS OF 40-50 KT FORECAST 1000 FT ABOVE THE
SURFACE, THERMAL PROFILES NOT FAVORABLE FOR MIXING WITH THE SETUP OF
WARM AIR MOVING ATOP THE COOLER WATERS. EXPECTING MORE OF A HIGH END
SCA WITH 25-30 KT WINDS. WINDS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL STILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE WATERS. SEAS FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 6-8 FEET.

THURSDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED. GALES CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 210216
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
916 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE REGION
FROM ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE
OFF THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE ON
TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC...LEADING TO A
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND A WEAKER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED BELOW A LOW LEVEL INVERSION,
ESPECIALLY PHILLY NORTH. THE LOW CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP SOUTH OF
PHILLY, BUT SKIES WILL FILL UP AGAIN AS A MID-LEVEL DECK ADVECTS
IN OVERNIGHT. THESE CLOUDS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE.

THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS KEEP THE CWA PRECIP-FREE(MEASURABLE)
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AS DOES THE LOWER RES MODELS. WE`LL KEEP THE
GRIDS AS IS, BUT CAN`T RULE OUT A FLURRY OR TWO UP ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA.

ANOTHER SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT IS EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 20S
NORTH AND MID OR UPPER 20S SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA SUN MORNING...UPPER RIDGING
WILL TAKE PLACE. THIS WILL HOPEFULLY ALLOW MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA. WE HAVE WRITTEN A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FCST FOR NOW. WE HELD
ONTO SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS HOWEVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...WHILE READINGS HOLD IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH/WEST AREAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST.
* INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE WITH
  TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
* BRISK WESTERLY WIND CHRISTMAS DAY W/FLURRIES POSSIBLE.

OVERVIEW...

VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ACCOMPANYING 160 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL
JET MAX COMING ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND
WILL LEAD TO A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID-WEEK.
INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS EJECTED NORTHEAST
AND WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. THIS WEAK FEATURE SHOULD TRACK OFFSHORE WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY PER TODAYS 12Z UKMET AND GFS...
FEEL THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE TOO FAR NORTH, SLOW, AND DEEP W/THIS
FEATURE...THUS THEY ALSO CRANK OUT TOO MUCH QPF. NEVERTHELESS...
QPF COMBINED WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES OVER THE NORTHWEST
COULD SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL FLOW
THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL...PUMPING ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AND MOIST AIR UP THE EAST COAST...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAIN
ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT CROSSES THE REGION...LEADING TO A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE ON THE
BACK-SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...W/SURFACE
HIGH ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST IN A COLD-AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY INSENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE
COLDER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE DAY AS MOISTURE
STREAMS IN ALOFT AND LOW-LEVELS GRADUALLY SATURATE. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD AIR
IS REINFORCED W/NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND PRECIP LEADS TO
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...
ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING REMAINS WELL TO
THE WEST...BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THRU THE DAY. QPF SHOULD BE GENERALLY
LIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...
A VIGOROUS TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST W/STILL SOME SPREAD NOTED
FROM THE MEAN IN BOTH THE ECENS AND GEFS 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELDS...
INDICATING SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO WHAT DEGREE IT GOES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. NEVERTHELESS...A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR UP TO 1-2 INCHES OF QPF...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOTING A STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX AND THE
LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A 160 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE
APPALACHIANS. ALSO NOTING STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH /2-3 STANDARD DEVIATION/ PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STREAMING
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THUS THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
ASCENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...W/THE MODELS KEYING IN ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIP...AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY
DUE TO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL CHRISTMAS EVE. LATER SHIFTS WILL ALSO
NEED TO FURTHER EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
AND CONVECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOW-PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC AND HIGH-PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS AND THERE
COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY...
PARTICULARLY NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION...BUT IT/S TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS MID-WEEK COULD ADD TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THERE HAS BEEN PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE
INVERSION AGAIN TODAY. CIGS WERE BETWEEN 025-035 ACROSS THE AREA
THIS AFTERNOON. THIS EVENING WE`RE SEEING MORE 030-035. STILL,
MOSTLY IN THE NORTH QUADRANT.

WE`LL KEEP THE LOW CLOUDS IN THE TERMINALS FROM KPHL NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE NIGHT. TO THE SOUTH, WE`VE SCATTERED THE LOW LEVEL
DECK OUT. A SHORT WAVE WILL BRING SOME ALTOCU TO JUST ABOUT
EVERYWHERE OVERNIGHT.

WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT. NO PRECIPITATION HAS BEEN
MENTIONED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...VFR.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AS MARINE LAYER BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND STRATUS ADVECTS INLAND.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND IN-SITU CAD FROM LIGHT RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS COULD YIELD AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS (CIGS WOULD BE THE MORE LIKELY CONTRIBUTOR TO
IFR THAN VSBYS) MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS VEER MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
HEAVIEST DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PREDOMINATELY MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FOLLOWING
WARM FROPA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU SOMETIME AT
NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF
FROPA.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WINDS COULD BECOME STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY WITH BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12Z GFS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA FLAG CRITERIA. WINDS WILL
MOSTLY BE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS ON TUESDAY.
WINDS 15-20 KT FORECAST ON TUESDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
5-6 FEET TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WARRANTING THE NEED FOR A SCA.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AFTER
WARM FROPA. DESPITE WINDS OF 40-50 KT FORECAST 1000 FT ABOVE THE
SURFACE, THERMAL PROFILES NOT FAVORABLE FOR MIXING WITH THE SETUP OF
WARM AIR MOVING ATOP THE COOLER WATERS. EXPECTING MORE OF A HIGH END
SCA WITH 25-30 KT WINDS. WINDS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL STILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE WATERS. SEAS FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 6-8 FEET.

THURSDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED. GALES CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 202125
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
425 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
REGION FROM ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL ORGANIZE OFF THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC...LEADING TO A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND A WEAKER COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION WHICH IS AROUND 4K-5K
FT ALOFT. THE CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP SOMEWHAT JUST TO THE WEST AS OF
MID-AFTERNOON...SO SOME BREAKS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. ANOTHER SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 20S NORTH AND MID OR UPPER 20S SOUTH.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA SUN MORNING...UPPER RIDGING
WILL TAKE PLACE. THIS WILL HOPEFULLY ALLOW MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA. WE HAVE WRITTEN A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FCST FOR NOW. WE HELD
ONTO SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS HOWEVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...WHILE READINGS HOLD IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH/WEST AREAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST.
* INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE WITH
  TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
* BRISK WESTERLY WIND CHRISTMAS DAY W/FLURRIES POSSIBLE.

OVERVIEW...

VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ACCOMPANYING 160 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL
JET MAX COMING ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND
WILL LEAD TO A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID-WEEK.
INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS EJECTED NORTHEAST
AND WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. THIS WEAK FEATURE SHOULD TRACK OFFSHORE WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY PER TODAYS 12Z UKMET AND GFS...
FEEL THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE TOO FAR NORTH, SLOW, AND DEEP W/THIS
FEATURE...THUS THEY ALSO CRANK OUT TOO MUCH QPF. NEVERTHELESS...
QPF COMBINED WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES OVER THE NORTHWEST
COULD SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL FLOW
THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL...PUMPING ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AND MOIST AIR UP THE EAST COAST...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAIN
ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT CROSSES THE REGION...LEADING TO A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE ON THE
BACK-SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...W/SURFACE
HIGH ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST IN A COLD-AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY INSENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE
COLDER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE DAY AS MOISTURE
STREAMS IN ALOFT AND LOW-LEVELS GRADUALLY SATURATE. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD AIR
IS REINFORCED W/NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND PRECIP LEADS TO
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...
ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING REMAINS WELL TO
THE WEST...BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THRU THE DAY. QPF SHOULD BE GENERALLY
LIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...
A VIGOROUS TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST W/STILL SOME SPREAD NOTED
FROM THE MEAN IN BOTH THE ECENS AND GEFS 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELDS...
INDICATING SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO WHAT DEGREE IT GOES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. NEVERTHELESS...A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR UP TO 1-2 INCHES OF QPF...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOTING A STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX AND THE
LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A 160 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE
APPALACHIANS. ALSO NOTING STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH /2-3 STANDARD DEVIATION/ PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STREAMING
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THUS THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
ASCENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...W/THE MODELS KEYING IN ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIP...AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY
DUE TO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL CHRISTMAS EVE. LATER SHIFTS WILL ALSO
NEED TO FURTHER EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
AND CONVECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOW-PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC AND HIGH-PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS AND THERE
COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY...
PARTICULARLY NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION...BUT IT/S TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS MID-WEEK COULD ADD TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THERE HAS BEEN PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE
INVERSION AGAIN TODAY. CIGS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY 025-035 ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE NORTH QUADRANT.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SATELLITE PICS
DO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE DECK ACROSS NRN MD AND THE SUSQ VALLEY
WHICH MAY ARRIVE ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AROUND EVENING. MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES MORE CLEARING (OF THE LOW CLOUDS) OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME CI/CS ABOVE. WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THAT FOR THE TAFS...BUT A
FEW SITES HOLDING ON TO LOW CLOUDS LONGER...WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME.
SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME FEW-SCT LOW CLOUDS AND MOSTLY N
OR NE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...VFR.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AS MARINE LAYER BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND STRATUS ADVECTS INLAND.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND IN-SITU CAD FROM LIGHT RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS COULD YIELD AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS (CIGS WOULD BE THE MORE LIKELY CONTRIBUTOR TO
IFR THAN VSBYS) MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS VEER MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
HEAVIEST DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PREDOMINATELY MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FOLLOWING
WARM FROPA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU SOMETIME AT
NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF
FROPA.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WINDS COULD BECOME STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY WITH BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12Z GFS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA FLAG CRITERIA. WINDS WILL
MOSTLY BE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS ON TUESDAY.
WINDS 15-20 KT FORECAST ON TUESDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
5-6 FEET TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WARRANTING THE NEED FOR A SCA.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AFTER
WARM FROPA. DESPITE WINDS OF 40-50 KT FORECAST 1000 FT ABOVE THE
SURFACE, THERMAL PROFILES NOT FAVORABLE FOR MIXING WITH THE SETUP OF
WARM AIR MOVING ATOP THE COOLER WATERS. EXPECTING MORE OF A HIGH END
SCA WITH 25-30 KT WINDS. WINDS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL STILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE WATERS. SEAS FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 6-8 FEET.

THURSDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED. GALES CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA






000
FXUS61 KPHI 202125
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
425 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE
REGION FROM ATLANTIC CANADA THROUGH MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE
WILL ORGANIZE OFF THE CAROLINAS MONDAY NIGHT AND MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD OFFSHORE ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE OHIO VALLEY
AND MOVE NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC...LEADING TO A STRONG
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE ON THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BUILD IN ON FRIDAY AND A WEAKER COLD FRONT MAY
APPROACH THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. THERE IS
PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE INVERSION WHICH IS AROUND 4K-5K
FT ALOFT. THE CLOUDS ARE BREAKING UP SOMEWHAT JUST TO THE WEST AS OF
MID-AFTERNOON...SO SOME BREAKS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS EVENING...MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ. ANOTHER SEASONABLY COLD NIGHT
EXPECTED WITH LOWS IN THE LOW 20S NORTH AND MID OR UPPER 20S SOUTH.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
AFTER A WEAK SHORTWAVE CROSSES THE AREA SUN MORNING...UPPER RIDGING
WILL TAKE PLACE. THIS WILL HOPEFULLY ALLOW MORE SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
AREA. WE HAVE WRITTEN A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY FCST FOR NOW. WE HELD
ONTO SOME EXTRA CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS HOWEVER. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY WILL RISE INTO THE LOW 40S ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...WHILE READINGS HOLD IN THE MID/UPPER 30S ACROSS THE
NORTH/WEST AREAS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGHLIGHTS...

* FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE NORTHWEST.
* INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN CHRISTMAS EVE WITH
  TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
* BRISK WESTERLY WIND CHRISTMAS DAY W/FLURRIES POSSIBLE.

OVERVIEW...

VIGOROUS MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ACCOMPANYING 160 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL
JET MAX COMING ASHORE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS WEEKEND
WILL LEAD TO A DEEP TROUGH OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY MID-WEEK.
INITIAL PIECE OF ENERGY AHEAD OF THIS TROUGH IS EJECTED NORTHEAST
AND WILL LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN AREA OF LOW-PRESSURE OFF THE
CAROLINAS ON MONDAY. THIS WEAK FEATURE SHOULD TRACK OFFSHORE WELL
SOUTHEAST OF THE REGION ON TUESDAY PER TODAYS 12Z UKMET AND GFS...
FEEL THE NAM AND ECMWF ARE TOO FAR NORTH, SLOW, AND DEEP W/THIS
FEATURE...THUS THEY ALSO CRANK OUT TOO MUCH QPF. NEVERTHELESS...
QPF COMBINED WITH MARGINAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES OVER THE NORTHWEST
COULD SUPPORT SOME LIGHT FREEZING RAIN MONDAY NIGHT. MID-LEVEL FLOW
THEN BECOMES INCREASINGLY MERIDIONAL...PUMPING ANOMALOUSLY WARM
AND MOIST AIR UP THE EAST COAST...SETTING THE STAGE FOR HEAVY RAIN
ON CHRISTMAS EVE DAY. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO BECOME NEGATIVELY TILTED
AS IT CROSSES THE REGION...LEADING TO A STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY THURSDAY...WITH SOME FLURRIES POSSIBLE ON THE
BACK-SIDE OF THE STORM SYSTEM.

DETAILS...

MONDAY...
MID-LEVEL RIDGE CRESTS OVER THE REGION EARLY IN THE DAY...W/SURFACE
HIGH ANCHORED ALONG THE EAST COAST IN A COLD-AIR DAMMING SIGNATURE.
PRECIPITATION WILL BE LARGELY DRIVEN BY INSENTROPIC ASCENT OVER THE
COLDER LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND WILL BEGIN LATE IN THE DAY AS MOISTURE
STREAMS IN ALOFT AND LOW-LEVELS GRADUALLY SATURATE. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF LIGHT FREEZING RAIN OVER THE NORTHWEST AS A COLD AIR
IS REINFORCED W/NORTHERLY SURFACE WINDS AND PRECIP LEADS TO
EVAPORATIONAL COOLING.

TUESDAY...
ANY LIGHT FREEZING RAIN SHOULD END EARLY IN THE MORNING WITH STRONG
WARM AIR ADVECTION ALOFT. ALTHOUGH THE BEST FORCING REMAINS WELL TO
THE WEST...BROAD ISENTROPIC ASCENT AND INCREASING MOISTURE SHOULD
LEAD TO SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THRU THE DAY. QPF SHOULD BE GENERALLY
LIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...
A VIGOROUS TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST W/STILL SOME SPREAD NOTED
FROM THE MEAN IN BOTH THE ECENS AND GEFS 500 HPA HEIGHT FIELDS...
INDICATING SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO WHAT DEGREE IT GOES
NEGATIVELY TILTED. NEVERTHELESS...A VERY DYNAMIC SYSTEM WITH SEVERAL
INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER FOR UP TO 1-2 INCHES OF QPF...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NOTING A STRONG MID-LEVEL VORT MAX AND THE
LEFT-FRONT QUADRANT OF A 160 KNOT UPPER-LEVEL JET TRAVERSING THE
APPALACHIANS. ALSO NOTING STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AND ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH /2-3 STANDARD DEVIATION/ PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES STREAMING
UP THE EASTERN SEABOARD. THUS THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND
ASCENT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL...W/THE MODELS KEYING IN ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIP...AND
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR FLOODING POTENTIAL PARTICULARLY
DUE TO THE HOLIDAY TRAVEL CHRISTMAS EVE. LATER SHIFTS WILL ALSO
NEED TO FURTHER EVALUATE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY SURFACE WINDS
AND CONVECTION.

THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...
LOW-PRESSURE MOVES NORTHWARD INTO QUEBEC AND HIGH-PRESSURE BEGINS TO
BUILD IN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONABLE LEVELS AND THERE
COULD BE SNOW SHOWERS IN THE BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW ON THURSDAY...
PARTICULARLY NORTHWEST.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH THE REGION...BUT IT/S TOO
EARLY TO SPECULATE...ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY THAT THE STORM
SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHEAST CONUS MID-WEEK COULD ADD TO THE
FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THERE HAS BEEN PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED BELOW THE
INVERSION AGAIN TODAY. CIGS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY 025-035 ACROSS THE
AREA. WINDS HAVE BEEN LIGHT...MOSTLY IN THE NORTH QUADRANT.
CONDITIONS WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THIS AFTERNOON...BUT SATELLITE PICS
DO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE DECK ACROSS NRN MD AND THE SUSQ VALLEY
WHICH MAY ARRIVE ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AROUND EVENING. MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE INDICATES MORE CLEARING (OF THE LOW CLOUDS) OVERNIGHT WITH
SOME CI/CS ABOVE. WE HAVE GONE ALONG WITH THAT FOR THE TAFS...BUT A
FEW SITES HOLDING ON TO LOW CLOUDS LONGER...WOULDN`T SURPRISE ME.
SUNDAY...VFR EXPECTED WITH JUST SOME FEW-SCT LOW CLOUDS AND MOSTLY N
OR NE WINDS.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...VFR.

MONDAY AFTERNOON...POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS AS MARINE LAYER BECOMES
ESTABLISHED AND STRATUS ADVECTS INLAND.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...THE COMBINATION OF
STRENGTHENING ONSHORE FLOW AND IN-SITU CAD FROM LIGHT RAIN
OVERSPREADING THE TERMINALS COULD YIELD AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS (CIGS WOULD BE THE MORE LIKELY CONTRIBUTOR TO
IFR THAN VSBYS) MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

WEDNESDAY...WINDS VEER MORE OUT OF THE SOUTH AS A WARM FRONT SLOWLY
LIFTS NORTHWARD. RAIN IS EXPECTED TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD AND
HEAVIEST DURING THIS PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. PREDOMINATELY MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY FOLLOWING
WARM FROPA.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE THRU SOMETIME AT
NIGHT. LOW CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST IN WAKE OF
FROPA.

THURSDAY...WESTERLY WINDS COULD BECOME STRONG BEHIND THE FRONT
THURSDAY WITH BUFKIT FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM THE 12Z GFS SHOWING THE
POTENTIAL FOR 30-40 KT GUSTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY.
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SCA FLAG CRITERIA. WINDS WILL
MOSTLY BE NORTHERLY THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...ONSHORE FLOW STRENGTHENS ON TUESDAY.
WINDS 15-20 KT FORECAST ON TUESDAY. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD TO
5-6 FEET TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT, WARRANTING THE NEED FOR A SCA.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOUTHERLY WINDS STRENGTHEN AFTER
WARM FROPA. DESPITE WINDS OF 40-50 KT FORECAST 1000 FT ABOVE THE
SURFACE, THERMAL PROFILES NOT FAVORABLE FOR MIXING WITH THE SETUP OF
WARM AIR MOVING ATOP THE COOLER WATERS. EXPECTING MORE OF A HIGH END
SCA WITH 25-30 KT WINDS. WINDS FORECAST TO BECOME WESTERLY LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT BEHIND A COLD FRONT BUT THE CORE OF THE COLD AIR
WILL STILL REMAIN UPSTREAM OF THE WATERS. SEAS FORECAST TO INCREASE
TO 6-8 FEET.

THURSDAY...GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED. GALES CERTAINLY A
POSSIBILITY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201548
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1048 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD REACH ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND IT MAY ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE RECEIVED A FEW CALLS ABOUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AND FALLING BELOW
THE RADAR BEAM. WE HAVE ADDED SOME CHC POPS TO THE FCST ACROSS THE
SRN POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. OTHER THAN THAT...FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED TO THE EARLIER FCST. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE NOT
CHANGED AND WINDS ONLY HAD SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. PUBLIC
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT FROM THE DAY TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
CANADA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. WITH CONTINUING LOW PW
VALUES, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX SLIDES
TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH
WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN IOWA AND
VICINITY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD
PASS OVER OUR REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE WE ARE
ANTICIPATING SOME CLOUDS WITH THE SYSTEM THERE SHOULD NOT BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD DRIFT
EASTWARD REACHING ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO NOSE SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS AT THAT TIME WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF
THE COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON THE
TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN WEAK AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF
THE DELMARVA BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY.

AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN HERE
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD
WARMING TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER, POCKETS OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY LINGER IN THE POCONOS ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING SO WE HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN THERE.

OUR MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE COMING WEEK IS THE DEEP MID
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND ITS AXIS SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD EARLY ON THURSDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE AND IT WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO OUR REGION FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 50S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. SOME 60 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE DELMARVA
AND PERHAPS IN FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
QUITE BREEZY IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MIX
RATHER EFFICIENTLY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S BY
DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DECREASES
RAPIDLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS
A BIT ON THE TIMING OF THE FEATURE AT THIS POINT AS WELL ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE NOW MVFR, EXCEPT PHL/ILG/MIV, ALTHOUGH
THEY SHOULD BE THERE SHORTLY. THE MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION. CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD, LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT BEGIN TO SCATTER
OUT BY MIDDAY, IT`S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY, BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY. EVERYONE
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH RAIN
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN LIKELY. THE RAIN
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. A GUSTY SOUTH WIND MAY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL AFFECT THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET IN A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 6 TO 9
FEET IN A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...OHARA
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 201548
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1048 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD REACH ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND IT MAY ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE RECEIVED A FEW CALLS ABOUT SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AREAS. MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY IS LIGHT AND FALLING BELOW
THE RADAR BEAM. WE HAVE ADDED SOME CHC POPS TO THE FCST ACROSS THE
SRN POCONOS AND SUSSEX COUNTY NJ. OTHER THAN THAT...FEW CHANGES
WERE NEEDED TO THE EARLIER FCST. TEMPS AND DEW POINTS WERE NOT
CHANGED AND WINDS ONLY HAD SOME SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS. PUBLIC
PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT FROM THE DAY TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
CANADA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. WITH CONTINUING LOW PW
VALUES, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX SLIDES
TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH
WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN IOWA AND
VICINITY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD
PASS OVER OUR REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE WE ARE
ANTICIPATING SOME CLOUDS WITH THE SYSTEM THERE SHOULD NOT BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD DRIFT
EASTWARD REACHING ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO NOSE SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS AT THAT TIME WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF
THE COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON THE
TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN WEAK AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF
THE DELMARVA BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY.

AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN HERE
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD
WARMING TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER, POCKETS OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY LINGER IN THE POCONOS ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING SO WE HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN THERE.

OUR MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE COMING WEEK IS THE DEEP MID
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND ITS AXIS SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD EARLY ON THURSDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE AND IT WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO OUR REGION FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 50S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. SOME 60 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE DELMARVA
AND PERHAPS IN FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
QUITE BREEZY IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MIX
RATHER EFFICIENTLY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S BY
DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DECREASES
RAPIDLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS
A BIT ON THE TIMING OF THE FEATURE AT THIS POINT AS WELL ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE NOW MVFR, EXCEPT PHL/ILG/MIV, ALTHOUGH
THEY SHOULD BE THERE SHORTLY. THE MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION. CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD, LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT BEGIN TO SCATTER
OUT BY MIDDAY, IT`S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY, BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY. EVERYONE
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH RAIN
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN LIKELY. THE RAIN
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. A GUSTY SOUTH WIND MAY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL AFFECT THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET IN A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 6 TO 9
FEET IN A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...OHARA
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 200855
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD REACH ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND IT MAY ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY, WITH THE MID-ATLANTIC BEING ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE. THIS WILL KEEP A DRY, LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH PW VALUES BETWEEN ONE-QUARTER AND ONE-THIRD OF AN
INCH, NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. HOWEVER, THERE WILL REMAIN
MOISTURE CAUGHT UP UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION WHICH SHOULD KEEP SOME
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN IF THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT DURING THE DAY, WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA.
THE NORTHERLY WIND, ALONG WITH ANY CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY, SO WE USED A BLEND
OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT FROM THE DAY TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
CANADA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. WITH CONTINUING LOW PW
VALUES, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX SLIDES
TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH
WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN IOWA AND
VICINITY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD
PASS OVER OUR REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE WE ARE
ANTICIPATING SOME CLOUDS WITH THE SYSTEM THERE SHOULD NOT BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD DRIFT
EASTWARD REACHING ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO NOSE SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS AT THAT TIME WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF
THE COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON THE
TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN WEAK AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF
THE DELMARVA BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY.

AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN HERE
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD
WARMING TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER, POCKETS OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY LINGER IN THE POCONOS ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING SO WE HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN THERE.

OUR MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE COMING WEEK IS THE DEEP MID
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND ITS AXIS SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD EARLY ON THURSDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE AND IT WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO OUR REGION FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 50S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. SOME 60 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE DELMARVA
AND PERHAPS IN FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
QUITE BREEZY IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MIX
RATHER EFFICIENTLY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S BY
DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DECREASES
RAPIDLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS
A BIT ON THE TIMING OF THE FEATURE AT THIS POINT AS WELL ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE NOW MVFR, EXCEPT PHL/ILG/MIV, ALTHOUGH
THEY SHOULD BE THERE SHORTLY. THE MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION. CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD, LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT BEGIN TO SCATTER
OUT BY MIDDAY, IT`S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY, BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY. EVERYONE
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH RAIN
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN LIKELY. THE RAIN
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. A GUSTY SOUTH WIND MAY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL AFFECT THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET IN A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 6 TO 9
FEET IN A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 200855
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
355 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER SOUTHWESTERN QUEBEC THIS MORNING WILL
DRIFT EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD REACH ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY. WEAK
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON
MONDAY BEFORE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD AND DISSIPATING. STRONG
LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTHWARD FROM THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES DURING THE MID
WEEK PERIOD. THE LOW IS ANTICIPATED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION ON WEDNESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT ON WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO FOLLOW FROM THE SOUTHWEST FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH
FROM THE WEST AND IT MAY ARRIVE ON SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TODAY, WITH THE MID-ATLANTIC BEING ON THE
SOUTHERN FRINGE. THIS WILL KEEP A DRY, LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH PW VALUES BETWEEN ONE-QUARTER AND ONE-THIRD OF AN
INCH, NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. HOWEVER, THERE WILL REMAIN
MOISTURE CAUGHT UP UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION WHICH SHOULD KEEP SOME
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA. EVEN IF THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS
SCATTER OUT DURING THE DAY, WE SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA.
THE NORTHERLY WIND, ALONG WITH ANY CLOUD COVER SHOULD PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING SIGNIFICANTLY TODAY, SO WE USED A BLEND
OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE FORECAST TONIGHT FROM THE DAY TIME.
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN
CANADA REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER. WITH CONTINUING LOW PW
VALUES, NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. CLOUD COVER SHOULD REMAIN
ACROSS THE AREA, ESPECIALLY AS A SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX SLIDES
TOWARD THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

OVERNIGHT LOWS WERE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH
WERE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER WESTERN IOWA AND
VICINITY EARLY THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD AND IT SHOULD
PASS OVER OUR REGION EARLY ON SUNDAY MORNING. WHILE WE ARE
ANTICIPATING SOME CLOUDS WITH THE SYSTEM THERE SHOULD NOT BE
ENOUGH MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BE LOCATED OVER SOUTHERN
QUEBEC ON SUNDAY MORNING. THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHOULD DRIFT
EASTWARD REACHING ATLANTIC CANADA ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A
RIDGE AXIS IS EXPECTED TO NOSE SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE
APPALACHIANS AT THAT TIME WITH AN INVERTED TROUGH DEVELOPING OFF
THE COAST. WEAK LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON THE
TROUGH OFF THE CAROLINA COAST ON MONDAY. THE FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO REMAIN WEAK AS IT DRIFTS NORTHEASTWARD REACHING THE WATERS OFF
THE DELMARVA BEFORE DISSIPATING ON TUESDAY.

AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD SLOWLY
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION ON MONDAY AND THEY SHOULD REMAIN HERE
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. THE OVERALL TREND WILL BE TOWARD
WARMING TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION IS
ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE FORM OF RAIN. HOWEVER, POCKETS OF BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES MAY LINGER IN THE POCONOS ON MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING SO WE HAVE MENTIONED A CHANCE OF
FREEZING RAIN THERE.

OUR MAIN WEATHER FEATURE FOR THE COMING WEEK IS THE DEEP MID
LEVEL TROUGH THAT IS FORECAST TO DIG OVER THE MIDDLE PART OF THE
COUNTRY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD AND ITS AXIS SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD EARLY ON THURSDAY.

SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY ON TUESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE TROUGH. THE
LOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM SHOULD HAVE AN
OPPORTUNITY TO TAP INTO GULF MOISTURE AND IT WILL BRING THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL TO OUR REGION FROM
WEDNESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO PULL A WARM FRONT THROUGH OUR REGION ON
WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES FORECAST TO RISE INTO THE 50S AT MOST
LOCATIONS. SOME 60 DEGREE READINGS ARE POSSIBLE ON THE DELMARVA
AND PERHAPS IN FAR SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY. CONDITIONS MAY BECOME
QUITE BREEZY IN THE WARM SECTOR WHERE THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MIX
RATHER EFFICIENTLY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FOLLOW ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING BACK INTO THE 30S BY
DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION DECREASES
RAPIDLY ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS DRY AIR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO
OUR REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

RIDGING IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT FOR
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY WITH MAINLY DRY WEATHER AND SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES ANTICIPATED.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE MAY APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON SATURDAY
ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. THE GUIDANCE DIFFERS
A BIT ON THE TIMING OF THE FEATURE AT THIS POINT AS WELL ON THE
AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOST OF THE TAF SITES ARE NOW MVFR, EXCEPT PHL/ILG/MIV, ALTHOUGH
THEY SHOULD BE THERE SHORTLY. THE MVFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE TAF SITES THROUGH THIS MORNING AS MOISTURE REMAINS TRAPPED
UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION. CLOUDS MAY SCATTER OUT DURING THE DAY
WITH HIGHER LEVEL CLOUDS OVERHEAD, LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. IF THE CLOUDS DO NOT BEGIN TO SCATTER
OUT BY MIDDAY, IT`S POSSIBLE WE COULD SEE AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE DAY INTO TONIGHT.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY AROUND 5-10 KNOTS OR
LESS THROUGH THE DAY. SOME NORTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
EARLY, BUT SHOULD BECOME MORE NORTHERLY DURING THE DAY. EVERYONE
IS EXPECTED TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM LATER THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SPREADING
NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION.

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...CONDITIONS POSSIBLY LOWERING INTO THE
MVFR CATEGORY WITH A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN.

TUESDAY NIGHT...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED WITH RAIN
LIKELY.

WEDNESDAY...MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WITH RAIN LIKELY. THE RAIN
MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES. A GUSTY SOUTH WIND MAY DEVELOP, ESPECIALLY
IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTH WILL AFFECT THE WATERS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE
ANTICIPATED.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY
BUILD TO 5 TO 6 FEET IN A DEVELOPING ONSHORE FLOW.

WEDNESDAY...SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KNOTS ARE
EXPECTED. WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO 6 TO 9
FEET IN A STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON







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