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000
FXUS61 KPHI 291608
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1208 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE TRYING TO
NOSE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF: A VERY NICE DAY IN PROGRESS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH REMAINING HUMIDITY, CLOUDS, ML CAPE AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SHOWERS ISOLATED TSTMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE DELMARVA.
DEWPOINTS ABOUT 15F LOWER IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YDY.

AS OF 9 AM THIS MORNING, THE 12Z HRRR FCST REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
CONVECTION BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z FOCUSED ON QUEEN ANNES, CAROLINE
AND TALBOT COUNTIES IN MD POSSIBLY WITH ITS RAINFALL CANOPY LEAKING
NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO KENT COUNTIES OF MD AND DE AS WELL AS
WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY DE. THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS SIMILAR BUT IS
DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
REDEVELOPMENT BUT HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO AROUND 40 PCT THERE AND
LOWERED POPS IN E PA, S NJ, COASTAL DE WHERE ITS VERY DIFFICULT
TO SEE ANY RAIN LATE TODAY.

DID RAISE TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

OTRW, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FWIW, THE 12Z/28 NAM WAS TERRIBLE IN ITS RH TSECTION DEPICTION
FOR THIS PAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF OUR REGION TO
HAVE LIMITED IMPACT TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, COULD SEE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE DAY, AS DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION.
BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH
OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING
THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP
CREATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH GOOD SOAKING RAINS, JUST HOPEFULLY IT DOES NOT
COME TOO QUICKLY. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, STARTING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT NE-E WIND BECOMING
SE TO S THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS DEPICTED IN TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, CONDITIONS BELOW VFR SEEM UNLIKELY
FOR KPHL, KABE, KRDG, KTTN, AND KPNE. AT KILG, KMIV, AND KACY
WHERE THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE LIKELY TO ADVECT IN, LOW STRATUS
(AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT AGL) IS POSSIBLE.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR
DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH
MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WIND BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

UPGRADED THE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE CENTRAL NJ COAST PER
OBSERVED CONCERN AND SOME DATA INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE.

OTHERWISE, LOW RISK CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON DELAWARE COAST AND THE
FAR NORTHERN AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ COASTS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS ARE
LIGHTER THOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A 1 FOOT 12 SECOND ESE
SWELL SHOWING UP THAT COULD ELEVATE THE RISK SLIGHTLY THERE TOO.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND WITH WATER TEMPS THERE LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER S NEAR LBI...WATER TEMPS MAYBE 55 TO 60,
SNJ S OF KACY 60-65 AND THEN ALONG THE DE ATLC COAST UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS LOW ENHANCED...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR A MODERATE RISK DEPENDING ON THE SWELL SIZE. FOR NOW KEEPING
IT LOW RISK BUT NOT LOCKED INTO LOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015  AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...1207P
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291608
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1208 PM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE TRYING TO
NOSE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF: A VERY NICE DAY IN PROGRESS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH REMAINING HUMIDITY, CLOUDS, ML CAPE AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SHOWERS ISOLATED TSTMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE DELMARVA.
DEWPOINTS ABOUT 15F LOWER IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YDY.

AS OF 9 AM THIS MORNING, THE 12Z HRRR FCST REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
CONVECTION BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z FOCUSED ON QUEEN ANNES, CAROLINE
AND TALBOT COUNTIES IN MD POSSIBLY WITH ITS RAINFALL CANOPY LEAKING
NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO KENT COUNTIES OF MD AND DE AS WELL AS
WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY DE. THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS SIMILAR BUT IS
DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
REDEVELOPMENT BUT HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO AROUND 40 PCT THERE AND
LOWERED POPS IN E PA, S NJ, COASTAL DE WHERE ITS VERY DIFFICULT
TO SEE ANY RAIN LATE TODAY.

DID RAISE TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

OTRW, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FWIW, THE 12Z/28 NAM WAS TERRIBLE IN ITS RH TSECTION DEPICTION
FOR THIS PAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF OUR REGION TO
HAVE LIMITED IMPACT TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, COULD SEE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE DAY, AS DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION.
BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH
OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING
THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP
CREATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH GOOD SOAKING RAINS, JUST HOPEFULLY IT DOES NOT
COME TOO QUICKLY. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, STARTING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT NE-E WIND BECOMING
SE TO S THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS DEPICTED IN TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, CONDITIONS BELOW VFR SEEM UNLIKELY
FOR KPHL, KABE, KRDG, KTTN, AND KPNE. AT KILG, KMIV, AND KACY
WHERE THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE LIKELY TO ADVECT IN, LOW STRATUS
(AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT AGL) IS POSSIBLE.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR
DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH
MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WIND BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

UPGRADED THE RIP CURRENT RISK ALONG THE CENTRAL NJ COAST PER
OBSERVED CONCERN AND SOME DATA INDICATING POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE.

OTHERWISE, LOW RISK CONTINUES THIS AFTERNOON DELAWARE COAST AND THE
FAR NORTHERN AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ COASTS WHERE ONSHORE WINDS ARE
LIGHTER THOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A 1 FOOT 12 SECOND ESE
SWELL SHOWING UP THAT COULD ELEVATE THE RISK SLIGHTLY THERE TOO.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND WITH WATER TEMPS THERE LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER S NEAR LBI...WATER TEMPS MAYBE 55 TO 60,
SNJ S OF KACY 60-65 AND THEN ALONG THE DE ATLC COAST UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS LOW ENHANCED...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR A MODERATE RISK DEPENDING ON THE SWELL SIZE. FOR NOW KEEPING
IT LOW RISK BUT NOT LOCKED INTO LOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015  AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...1207P
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291411
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1011 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE TRYING TO
NOSE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF: A VERY NICE DAY IN PROGRESS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH REMAINING HUMIDITY, CLOUDS, ML CAPE AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SHOWERS ISOLATED TSTMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE DELMARVA.
DEWPOINTS ABOUT 15F LOWER IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YDY.

AS OF 9 AM THIS MORNING, THE 12Z HRRR FCST REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
CONVECTION BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z FOCUSED ON QUEEN ANNES, CAROLINE
AND TALBOT COUNTIES IN MD POSSIBLY WITH ITS RAINFALL CANOPY LEAKING
NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO KENT COUNTIES OF MD AND DE AS WELL AS
WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY DE. THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS SIMILAR BUT IS
DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
REDEVELOPMENT BUT HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO AROUND 40 PCT THERE AND
LOWERED POPS IN E PA, S NJ, COASTAL DE WHERE ITS VERY DIFFICULT
TO SEE ANY RAIN LATE TODAY.

DID RAISE TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

OTRW, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FWIW, THE 12Z/28 NAM WAS TERRIBLE IN ITS RH TSECTION DEPICTION
FOR THIS PAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF OUR REGION TO
HAVE LIMITED IMPACT TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, COULD SEE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE DAY, AS DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION.
BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH
OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING
THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP
CREATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH GOOD SOAKING RAINS, JUST HOPEFULLY IT DOES NOT
COME TOO QUICKLY. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, STARTING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT NE-E WIND BECOMING
SE TO S THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS DEPICTED IN TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, CONDITIONS BELOW VFR SEEM UNLIKELY
FOR KPHL, KABE, KRDG, KTTN, AND KPNE. AT KILG, KMIV, AND KACY
WHERE THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE LIKELY TO ADVECT IN, LOW STRATUS
(AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT AGL) IS POSSIBLE.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR
DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH
MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WIND BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES TODAY THOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A 1 FOOT
12 SECOND ESE SWELL SHOWING UP THAT COULD ELEVATE THE RISK SLIGHTLY.
ONSHORE WIND GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY...UNDER 15 MPH.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND WITH WATER TEMPS THERE LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER S NEAR LBI...WATER TEMPS MAYBE 55 TO 60,
SNJ S OF KACY 60-65 AND THEN ALONG THE DE ATLC COAST UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS LOW ENHANCED...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR A MODERATE RISK DEPENDING ON THE SWELL SIZE. FOR NOW KEEPING
IT LOW RISK BUT NOT LOCKED INTO LOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015  AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1011
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...1011
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291411
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1011 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE TRYING TO
NOSE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF: A VERY NICE DAY IN PROGRESS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH REMAINING HUMIDITY, CLOUDS, ML CAPE AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SHOWERS ISOLATED TSTMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE DELMARVA.
DEWPOINTS ABOUT 15F LOWER IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YDY.

AS OF 9 AM THIS MORNING, THE 12Z HRRR FCST REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
CONVECTION BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z FOCUSED ON QUEEN ANNES, CAROLINE
AND TALBOT COUNTIES IN MD POSSIBLY WITH ITS RAINFALL CANOPY LEAKING
NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO KENT COUNTIES OF MD AND DE AS WELL AS
WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY DE. THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS SIMILAR BUT IS
DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
REDEVELOPMENT BUT HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO AROUND 40 PCT THERE AND
LOWERED POPS IN E PA, S NJ, COASTAL DE WHERE ITS VERY DIFFICULT
TO SEE ANY RAIN LATE TODAY.

DID RAISE TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

OTRW, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FWIW, THE 12Z/28 NAM WAS TERRIBLE IN ITS RH TSECTION DEPICTION
FOR THIS PAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF OUR REGION TO
HAVE LIMITED IMPACT TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, COULD SEE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE DAY, AS DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION.
BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH
OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING
THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP
CREATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH GOOD SOAKING RAINS, JUST HOPEFULLY IT DOES NOT
COME TOO QUICKLY. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, STARTING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT NE-E WIND BECOMING
SE TO S THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS DEPICTED IN TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, CONDITIONS BELOW VFR SEEM UNLIKELY
FOR KPHL, KABE, KRDG, KTTN, AND KPNE. AT KILG, KMIV, AND KACY
WHERE THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE LIKELY TO ADVECT IN, LOW STRATUS
(AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT AGL) IS POSSIBLE.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR
DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH
MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WIND BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES TODAY THOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A 1 FOOT
12 SECOND ESE SWELL SHOWING UP THAT COULD ELEVATE THE RISK SLIGHTLY.
ONSHORE WIND GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY...UNDER 15 MPH.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND WITH WATER TEMPS THERE LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER S NEAR LBI...WATER TEMPS MAYBE 55 TO 60,
SNJ S OF KACY 60-65 AND THEN ALONG THE DE ATLC COAST UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS LOW ENHANCED...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR A MODERATE RISK DEPENDING ON THE SWELL SIZE. FOR NOW KEEPING
IT LOW RISK BUT NOT LOCKED INTO LOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015  AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1011
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...1011
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291411
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1011 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE TRYING TO
NOSE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF: A VERY NICE DAY IN PROGRESS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH REMAINING HUMIDITY, CLOUDS, ML CAPE AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SHOWERS ISOLATED TSTMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE DELMARVA.
DEWPOINTS ABOUT 15F LOWER IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YDY.

AS OF 9 AM THIS MORNING, THE 12Z HRRR FCST REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
CONVECTION BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z FOCUSED ON QUEEN ANNES, CAROLINE
AND TALBOT COUNTIES IN MD POSSIBLY WITH ITS RAINFALL CANOPY LEAKING
NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO KENT COUNTIES OF MD AND DE AS WELL AS
WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY DE. THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS SIMILAR BUT IS
DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
REDEVELOPMENT BUT HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO AROUND 40 PCT THERE AND
LOWERED POPS IN E PA, S NJ, COASTAL DE WHERE ITS VERY DIFFICULT
TO SEE ANY RAIN LATE TODAY.

DID RAISE TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

OTRW, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FWIW, THE 12Z/28 NAM WAS TERRIBLE IN ITS RH TSECTION DEPICTION
FOR THIS PAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF OUR REGION TO
HAVE LIMITED IMPACT TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, COULD SEE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE DAY, AS DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION.
BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH
OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING
THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP
CREATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH GOOD SOAKING RAINS, JUST HOPEFULLY IT DOES NOT
COME TOO QUICKLY. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, STARTING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT NE-E WIND BECOMING
SE TO S THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS DEPICTED IN TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, CONDITIONS BELOW VFR SEEM UNLIKELY
FOR KPHL, KABE, KRDG, KTTN, AND KPNE. AT KILG, KMIV, AND KACY
WHERE THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE LIKELY TO ADVECT IN, LOW STRATUS
(AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT AGL) IS POSSIBLE.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR
DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH
MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WIND BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES TODAY THOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A 1 FOOT
12 SECOND ESE SWELL SHOWING UP THAT COULD ELEVATE THE RISK SLIGHTLY.
ONSHORE WIND GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY...UNDER 15 MPH.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND WITH WATER TEMPS THERE LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER S NEAR LBI...WATER TEMPS MAYBE 55 TO 60,
SNJ S OF KACY 60-65 AND THEN ALONG THE DE ATLC COAST UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS LOW ENHANCED...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR A MODERATE RISK DEPENDING ON THE SWELL SIZE. FOR NOW KEEPING
IT LOW RISK BUT NOT LOCKED INTO LOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015  AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1011
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...1011
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291411
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1011 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE TRYING TO
NOSE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF: A VERY NICE DAY IN PROGRESS MOST OF THE FORECAST
AREA WITH REMAINING HUMIDITY, CLOUDS, ML CAPE AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY SHOWERS ISOLATED TSTMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE DELMARVA.
DEWPOINTS ABOUT 15F LOWER IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ
COMPARED TO THIS TIME YDY.

AS OF 9 AM THIS MORNING, THE 12Z HRRR FCST REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
CONVECTION BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z FOCUSED ON QUEEN ANNES, CAROLINE
AND TALBOT COUNTIES IN MD POSSIBLY WITH ITS RAINFALL CANOPY LEAKING
NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO KENT COUNTIES OF MD AND DE AS WELL AS
WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY DE. THE 12Z NAM SUGGESTS SIMILAR BUT IS
DEVELOPING MID AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE FOR THIS
REDEVELOPMENT BUT HAVE BOOSTED POPS TO AROUND 40 PCT THERE AND
LOWERED POPS IN E PA, S NJ, COASTAL DE WHERE ITS VERY DIFFICULT
TO SEE ANY RAIN LATE TODAY.

DID RAISE TEMPS 1-2 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST AWAY FROM THE
COAST.

OTRW, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FWIW, THE 12Z/28 NAM WAS TERRIBLE IN ITS RH TSECTION DEPICTION
FOR THIS PAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF OUR REGION TO
HAVE LIMITED IMPACT TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, COULD SEE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE DAY, AS DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION.
BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH
OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING
THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP
CREATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH GOOD SOAKING RAINS, JUST HOPEFULLY IT DOES NOT
COME TOO QUICKLY. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, STARTING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT NE-E WIND BECOMING
SE TO S THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS DEPICTED IN TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, CONDITIONS BELOW VFR SEEM UNLIKELY
FOR KPHL, KABE, KRDG, KTTN, AND KPNE. AT KILG, KMIV, AND KACY
WHERE THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE LIKELY TO ADVECT IN, LOW STRATUS
(AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT AGL) IS POSSIBLE.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR
DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH
MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WIND BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES TODAY THOUGH A LITTLE CONCERNED ABOUT A 1 FOOT
12 SECOND ESE SWELL SHOWING UP THAT COULD ELEVATE THE RISK SLIGHTLY.
ONSHORE WIND GENERALLY LIGHT TODAY...UNDER 15 MPH.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND WITH WATER TEMPS THERE LOOKING TO BE IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S. FURTHER S NEAR LBI...WATER TEMPS MAYBE 55 TO 60,
SNJ S OF KACY 60-65 AND THEN ALONG THE DE ATLC COAST UPPER 50S TO
MID 60S DEPENDING ON LOCATION.

THE OUTLOOK FOR SATURDAY IS LOW ENHANCED...WITH A STRONGER SOUTHERLY
WIND GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON. MIGHT BE A CLOSE CALL
FOR A MODERATE RISK DEPENDING ON THE SWELL SIZE. FOR NOW KEEPING
IT LOW RISK BUT NOT LOCKED INTO LOW.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015  AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1011
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...1011
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291259
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
859 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OFF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST TODAY INTO
SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS
THE AREA LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE TRYING TO
NOSE ITS WAY INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM ESTF:

A VERY NICE DAY IN PROGRESS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH REMAINING
HUMIDITY, CLOUDS, ML CAPE AND POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SHOWERS ISOLATED
TSTMS CONFINED MAINLY TO THE DELMARVA. DEWPOINTS ABOUT 15F LOWER
IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN PA AND NJ COMPARED TO THIS TIME YDY.

AS OF 8 AM THIS MORNING, THE HRRR FCST REDEVELOPMENT OF HEAVY
CONVECTION BETWEEN 17Z AND 19Z FOCUSED ON QUEEN ANNES CAROLINE AND
TALBOT COUNTIES IN MD POSSIBLY WITH ITS RAINFALL CANOPY LEAKING
NORTH AND EASTWARD INTO KENT COUNTIES OF MD AND DE AS WELL AS
WESTERN SUSSEX COUNTY DE.

I MAY RAISE TEMPS 2-3 DEGREES FROM THE CURRENT FCST OVER THE
INTERIOR TODAY.

OTRW, LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FWIW, THE 12Z/28 NAM WAS TERRIBLE IN ITS RH TSECTION DEPICTION
FOR THIS PAST NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF OUR REGION TO
HAVE LIMITED IMPACT TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, COULD SEE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE DAY, AS DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION.
BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH
OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING
THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP
CREATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH GOOD SOAKING RAINS, JUST HOPEFULLY IT DOES NOT
COME TOO QUICKLY. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, STARTING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT. LIGHT NE-E WIND BECOMING
SE TO S THIS AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...VFR TO START. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. THERE IS A SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION AS DEPICTED IN TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND
NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD, CONDITIONS BELOW VFR SEEM UNLIKELY
FOR KPHL, KABE, KRDG, KTTN, AND KPNE. AT KILG, KMIV, AND KACY
WHERE THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE LIKELY TO ADVECT IN, LOW STRATUS
(AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT AGL) IS POSSIBLE.


OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR
DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH
MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WIND BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES TODAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPS ON THE LAND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

ALL OVERNIGHT AND FORECAST INFORMATION CHECKED THROUGH 830 AM
TODAY - FRIDAY MAY 29.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY MAY 2015 65.9 OR 66.0 OR 4.8 TO 4.9 ABOVE NORMAL
AND PROBABLE #2 OR #3 POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015  AROUND 68.0

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 859A
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 859A
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 859A
RIP CURRENTS...859A
CLIMATE...859A



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290737
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
337 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY
INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE TRYING TO NOSE ITS WAY
INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 3 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH ALMOST ALL OF OUR REGION WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WITH THE DRIER
AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, SHOULD HAVE A COMFORTABLE DAY ON TAP
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS THAN YESTERDAY AND HIGHS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME QPF, FIRST WITH LINGERING CONVECTION
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING (WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN HOW PERSISTENT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN IN NORTHEASTERN MD
OVERNIGHT), AND THEN WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FAR
WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS LIMITED
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT, SO ANY CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY UNTIL THE
BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION DISSIPATES, WHICH IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT, MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL THAT BEING
SAID, MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DID
INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER, AS IT DOES APPEAR THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY (IF THE INVERSION DISSIPATES) FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF OUR REGION TO
HAVE LIMITED IMPACT TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, COULD SEE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE DAY, AS DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION.
BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH
OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING
THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP
CREATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH GOOD SOAKING RAINS, JUST HOPEFULLY IT DOES NOT
COME TOO QUICKLY. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, STARTING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT IS NOW
SOUTH OF ALL THE TAF SITES, AND DRIER AIR IS CONTINUES TO ADVECT
OVER THE REGION.

THERE IS ALSO A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING
AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS DEPICTED IN TIME
HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS APPEAR TO
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO
DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
CONDITIONS BELOW VFR SEEM UNLIKELY FOR KPHL, KABE, KRDG, KTTN, AND
KPNE. AT KILG, KMIV, AND KACY WHERE THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE LIKELY
TO ADVECT IN, LOW STRATUS (AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT AGL) IS POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY NOW, TO EASTERLY BY 15Z,
TO SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY AROUND OR BELOW 10KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR
DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH
MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WIND BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 290737
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
337 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REESTABLISH ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY
INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THEN STALL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
OR JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD TO OUR NORTH EARLY NEXT WEEK, BEFORE TRYING TO NOSE ITS WAY
INTO OUR AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AS OF 3 AM THE COLD FRONT WAS THROUGH ALMOST ALL OF OUR REGION WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF PORTIONS OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. WITH THE DRIER
AIR IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, SHOULD HAVE A COMFORTABLE DAY ON TAP
WITH LOWER DEW POINTS THAN YESTERDAY AND HIGHS ONLY SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME QPF, FIRST WITH LINGERING CONVECTION
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT THIS MORNING (WHICH SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN HOW PERSISTENT SHOWERS HAVE BEEN IN NORTHEASTERN MD
OVERNIGHT), AND THEN WITH AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FAR
WESTERN SECTIONS OF OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS LIMITED
SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT, SO ANY CONVECTION IS UNLIKELY UNTIL THE
BOUNDARY LAYER INVERSION DISSIPATES, WHICH IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT, MAY NOT HAPPEN UNTIL VERY LATE THIS AFTERNOON. ALL THAT BEING
SAID, MADE FEW CHANGES TO THE POPS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. DID
INCLUDE MENTION OF THUNDER, AS IT DOES APPEAR THERE IS ENOUGH
INSTABILITY (IF THE INVERSION DISSIPATES) FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
THE NEXT COLD FRONT CONTINUES PROGRESS EAST OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION, BUT STILL LOOKS TO STAY FAR ENOUGH WEST OF OUR REGION TO
HAVE LIMITED IMPACT TONIGHT. WITH THE PERSISTENT SOUTHEASTERLY LOW
LEVEL FLOW, COULD SEE FOG ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, THIS
WILL BE DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOIST AIR ADVECTION WILL OCCUR IN THE
LATER HALF OF THE DAY, AS DEW POINTS WILL LIKELY START THE DAY IN
THE 50S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGE ALOFT WILL GET PUSHED EASTWARD
SATURDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT, WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW
BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A
COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

THE COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO SUNDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION.
BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST
PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH
OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD
BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING
THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES, THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO OUR NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
LIKELY MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP
CREATE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. IT IS LOOKING LIKE WE COULD
HAVE A PERIOD WITH GOOD SOAKING RAINS, JUST HOPEFULLY IT DOES NOT
COME TOO QUICKLY. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE
FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF INSTABILITY.

THE HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST SHOULD BUILD SOUTH ACROSS
THE AREA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY, STARTING ANOTHER DRY PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD. THE COLD FRONT IS NOW
SOUTH OF ALL THE TAF SITES, AND DRIER AIR IS CONTINUES TO ADVECT
OVER THE REGION.

THERE IS ALSO A SMALL POSSIBILITY OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING
AFTER 03Z TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION AS DEPICTED IN TIME
HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS APPEAR TO
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO
DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD,
CONDITIONS BELOW VFR SEEM UNLIKELY FOR KPHL, KABE, KRDG, KTTN, AND
KPNE. AT KILG, KMIV, AND KACY WHERE THE MARINE LAYER IS MORE LIKELY
TO ADVECT IN, LOW STRATUS (AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FT AGL) IS POSSIBLE.

WINDS WILL SLOWLY SHIFT FROM NORTHEASTERLY NOW, TO EASTERLY BY 15Z,
TO SOUTHEASTERLY AFTER 18Z. HOWEVER, WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
STAY AROUND OR BELOW 10KT.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR
DURING THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH
MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND
20 KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-TUESDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.
WIND BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT AND CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY. WINDS COULD GUST TO 20 KNOTS AT TIMES SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...

WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THERE MAY BE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE VICINITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH ABOUT MID DAY.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY-TUESDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO TUESDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290515
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
115 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN
CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN NJ AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
ADJACENT AREAS IN MARYLAND. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW ISOLATED
CONVECTION CONTINUING ALONG THE MD EASTERN SHORE, AT LEAST FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. IN ADDITION, SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT OVER FAR SOUTHERN NJ AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. THUS, HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ALSO ADJUSTED DEW POINTS AS THERE HAS BEEN A TREND OF DEW POINTS
DROPPING 10 TO 15 DEGREES WITHIN ABOUT 2 HOURS OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
A NICER DAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY KPHL
NORTHEASTWARD...WARM BUT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WITH LIGHT EAST
WINDS TURNING SE OR S DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOLER COASTS DUE TO
THE UPWELLED COOLER OCEAN WATERS, ESPECIALLY NNJ.

WE HAVE SMALL POPS IN DURING THE MORNING DELMARVA AND SPREADING
NWD THRU E PA IN THE AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG. IT SHOULD
BE RAINFREE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. ONLY CALLED IT
SHOWERS PER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CHANCEY AT WORST IN SW
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA

FCST TEMPS BASED ON THE WARMER OF THE AVBL 12Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE.
REMAINDER OF THE ELEMENTS DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/28 50 50 BLENDED
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF THE PD AS
CDFNT ADVANCES FROM THE W. WITH THE LOW OVER QUEBEC, WE WILL BE
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WITH OUT MANY TRIGGERS BESIDES DAYTIME
HEATING, EXPECT FRI NIGHT TO BE DRY AND EARLY SAT AS WELL. BY
LATER SAT, CUD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY N AND W.

BY LATER SAT INTO SUN, THIS IS OUR BEST SHOT TO SEE SOME DECENT
RAIN ACRS THE AREA, AND WE NEED IT. THE ECMWF, IS STILL A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE CFP, BUT OVERALL TIMING DIFFS HAVE DECREASED. SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN APPEARS TO BE THE WET TIME PD, THOUGH IT WONT BE
RAINING THE WHOLE TIME, AND CERTAINLY NOT EVERYONE WILL GET RAIN
AT THE SAME TIMES.

BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND BE ANCHORED IN
QUEBEC AS THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR S. NELY FLOW WILL SET IN THE
FCST WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP. EXPECT MON
TO BE COOL AND DREARY WHETHER OR NOT IT RAINS, BUT THERE WILL BE
SCT SHOWERS AT LEAST, AND PSBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. GUID IS
STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH DETERMINING OF WHERE THE STEADIEST
RAIN MIGHT BE AND HAS HAD PROBS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE FCST AROUND MON. THOSE STILL CONTINUE. IT SHUD BE
NOTED THAT THE CMC IS MUCH DRIER THAN EITHER THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
MON. THE GFS HAS A WET BIAS, BUT THE ECMWF, EXCEPT FOR ONE DAY
EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SOME PRECIP FOR MON.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN, THE COLD FRONT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY THROUGH THE
REGION AND LOOKS LIKELY TO REMAINED STALLED ACROSS OR NEAR OUR AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE NORTHEASTERN HIGH STARTS TO PUSH BACK INTO
OUR AREA, THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE, AROUND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
THEN REMAINS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

WITH THE FRONT REMAINING STALLED IN OUR AREA, A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT STARTS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR REGION, WE SHOULD REALLY START TO DRY
OUT, REMAINING DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TEMPS START OUT QUITE WARM, THEN TAKE A NOSEDIVE MON AND TUE
BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE NRML LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY VERY CLOSE TO KMIV AND KACY, AS SUCH
THEY MAY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO, BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT AS DEPICTED IN
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS
APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUB VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...LOWER CONDITIONS PSBL ERLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING THE
DAY. SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY N AND W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT-MON...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
TSRA IS SUN WITH CFP SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
MONDAY NIGHT IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. SLY FLOW SHOULD
TURN NE TO E ALONG THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT ONSHORE FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT-SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY THE END
OF THE PD.

SAT NIGHT-MON...INCREASING SEAS ESPECIALLY LATER SUN INTO MON
WITH WIND INCREASING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME WITH THE FRONT TO
OUR S AND INCREASING NELY FLOW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WITH WINDS GUSTING UP AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290515
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
115 AM EDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN
CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS NOW MOVED THROUGH MOST OF THE REGION WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF FAR SOUTHEASTERN NJ AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND THE
ADJACENT AREAS IN MARYLAND. HIGH RES MODELS SHOW ISOLATED
CONVECTION CONTINUING ALONG THE MD EASTERN SHORE, AT LEAST FOR A
FEW MORE HOURS. IN ADDITION, SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT OVER FAR SOUTHERN NJ AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS. THUS, HAVE ADJUSTED POPS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

ALSO ADJUSTED DEW POINTS AS THERE HAS BEEN A TREND OF DEW POINTS
DROPPING 10 TO 15 DEGREES WITHIN ABOUT 2 HOURS OF THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
A NICER DAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY KPHL
NORTHEASTWARD...WARM BUT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WITH LIGHT EAST
WINDS TURNING SE OR S DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOLER COASTS DUE TO
THE UPWELLED COOLER OCEAN WATERS, ESPECIALLY NNJ.

WE HAVE SMALL POPS IN DURING THE MORNING DELMARVA AND SPREADING
NWD THRU E PA IN THE AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG. IT SHOULD
BE RAINFREE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. ONLY CALLED IT
SHOWERS PER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CHANCEY AT WORST IN SW
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA

FCST TEMPS BASED ON THE WARMER OF THE AVBL 12Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE.
REMAINDER OF THE ELEMENTS DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/28 50 50 BLENDED
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF THE PD AS
CDFNT ADVANCES FROM THE W. WITH THE LOW OVER QUEBEC, WE WILL BE
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WITH OUT MANY TRIGGERS BESIDES DAYTIME
HEATING, EXPECT FRI NIGHT TO BE DRY AND EARLY SAT AS WELL. BY
LATER SAT, CUD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY N AND W.

BY LATER SAT INTO SUN, THIS IS OUR BEST SHOT TO SEE SOME DECENT
RAIN ACRS THE AREA, AND WE NEED IT. THE ECMWF, IS STILL A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE CFP, BUT OVERALL TIMING DIFFS HAVE DECREASED. SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN APPEARS TO BE THE WET TIME PD, THOUGH IT WONT BE
RAINING THE WHOLE TIME, AND CERTAINLY NOT EVERYONE WILL GET RAIN
AT THE SAME TIMES.

BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND BE ANCHORED IN
QUEBEC AS THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR S. NELY FLOW WILL SET IN THE
FCST WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP. EXPECT MON
TO BE COOL AND DREARY WHETHER OR NOT IT RAINS, BUT THERE WILL BE
SCT SHOWERS AT LEAST, AND PSBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. GUID IS
STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH DETERMINING OF WHERE THE STEADIEST
RAIN MIGHT BE AND HAS HAD PROBS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE FCST AROUND MON. THOSE STILL CONTINUE. IT SHUD BE
NOTED THAT THE CMC IS MUCH DRIER THAN EITHER THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
MON. THE GFS HAS A WET BIAS, BUT THE ECMWF, EXCEPT FOR ONE DAY
EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SOME PRECIP FOR MON.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN, THE COLD FRONT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY THROUGH THE
REGION AND LOOKS LIKELY TO REMAINED STALLED ACROSS OR NEAR OUR AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE NORTHEASTERN HIGH STARTS TO PUSH BACK INTO
OUR AREA, THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE, AROUND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
THEN REMAINS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

WITH THE FRONT REMAINING STALLED IN OUR AREA, A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT STARTS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR REGION, WE SHOULD REALLY START TO DRY
OUT, REMAINING DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TEMPS START OUT QUITE WARM, THEN TAKE A NOSEDIVE MON AND TUE
BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE NRML LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 06Z TAFS...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE TAF PERIOD.
THE COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY VERY CLOSE TO KMIV AND KACY, AS SUCH
THEY MAY SEE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE AREA OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
TWO, BEFORE DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THERE IS ALSO A SMALL POSSIBILITY
OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING AFTER 03Z TONIGHT AS DEPICTED IN
TIME HEIGHT DISPLAYS OF BOTH THE GFS AND NAM. HOWEVER, MODELS
APPEAR TO BE UNDERESTIMATING THE AMOUNT OF DRY AIR
ADVECTION CURRENTLY, SO DESPITE EASTERLY/SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD, SUB VFR CONDITIONS APPEAR UNLIKELY.

OUTLOOK...
SAT...LOWER CONDITIONS PSBL ERLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING THE
DAY. SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY N AND W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT-MON...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
TSRA IS SUN WITH CFP SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
MONDAY NIGHT IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. SLY FLOW SHOULD
TURN NE TO E ALONG THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT ONSHORE FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT-SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY THE END
OF THE PD.

SAT NIGHT-MON...INCREASING SEAS ESPECIALLY LATER SUN INTO MON
WITH WIND INCREASING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME WITH THE FRONT TO
OUR S AND INCREASING NELY FLOW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WITH WINDS GUSTING UP AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 290140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN
CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WITHIN THE PAST TWO
HOURS OVER MOST OF THE REGION. SOME NEW SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT
OVER NORTHEAST MARYLAND, BUT COVERAGE IS ISOLATED. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. RECENT HRRR
RUNS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH (SPEEDS VERY LIGHT) HIGHLIGHTS THE ARRIVAL
OF DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY PROVIDES
BEST IDENTIFICATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG/ST OVERNIGHT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AREA WITH CONFIDENCE FOR FOG/STRATUS FORMATION BELOW AVG. PATCHY
FOG IS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS USING THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL.

OTHERWISE A FAIR NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH LATE AT
NIGHT DUE TO DRIER AIR.

FCST TEMPS ARE BASED ON THE WARMER 12Z/28 NAM MOS AND ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE IS DERIVED OFF A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A NICER DAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY KPHL
NORTHEASTWARD...WARM BUT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WITH LIGHT EAST
WINDS TURNING SE OR S DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOLER COASTS DUE TO
THE UPWELLED COOLER OCEAN WATERS, ESPECIALLY NNJ.

WE HAVE SMALL POPS IN DURING THE MORNING DELMARVA AND SPREADING
NWD THRU E PA IN THE AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG. IT SHOULD
BE RAINFREE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. ONLY CALLED IT
SHOWERS PER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CHANCEY AT WORST IN SW
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA

FCST TEMPS BASED ON THE WARMER OF THE AVBL 12Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE.
REMAINDER OF THE ELEMENTS DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/28 50 50 BLENDED
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF THE PD AS
CDFNT ADVANCES FROM THE W. WITH THE LOW OVER QUEBEC, WE WILL BE
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WITH OUT MANY TRIGGERS BESIDES DAYTIME
HEATING, EXPECT FRI NIGHT TO BE DRY AND EARLY SAT AS WELL. BY
LATER SAT, CUD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY N AND W.

BY LATER SAT INTO SUN, THIS IS OUR BEST SHOT TO SEE SOME DECENT
RAIN ACRS THE AREA, AND WE NEED IT. THE ECMWF, IS STILL A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE CFP, BUT OVERALL TIMING DIFFS HAVE DECREASED. SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN APPEARS TO BE THE WET TIME PD, THOUGH IT WONT BE
RAINING THE WHOLE TIME, AND CERTAINLY NOT EVERYONE WILL GET RAIN
AT THE SAME TIMES.

BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND BE ANCHORED IN
QUEBEC AS THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR S. NELY FLOW WILL SET IN THE
FCST WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP. EXPECT MON
TO BE COOL AND DREARY WHETHER OR NOT IT RAINS, BUT THERE WILL BE
SCT SHOWERS AT LEAST, AND PSBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. GUID IS
STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH DETERMINING OF WHERE THE STEADIEST
RAIN MIGHT BE AND HAS HAD PROBS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE FCST AROUND MON. THOSE STILL CONTINUE. IT SHUD BE
NOTED THAT THE CMC IS MUCH DRIER THAN EITHER THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
MON. THE GFS HAS A WET BIAS, BUT THE ECMWF, EXCEPT FOR ONE DAY
EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SOME PRECIP FOR MON.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN, THE COLD FRONT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY THROUGH THE
REGION AND LOOKS LIKELY TO REMAINED STALLED ACROSS OR NEAR OUR AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE NORTHEASTERN HIGH STARTS TO PUSH BACK INTO
OUR AREA, THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE, AROUND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
THEN REMAINS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

WITH THE FRONT REMAINING STALLED IN OUR AREA, A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT STARTS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR REGION, WE SHOULD REALLY START TO DRY
OUT, REMAINING DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TEMPS START OUT QUITE WARM, THEN TAKE A NOSEDIVE MON AND TUE
BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE NRML LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS WITH WIND SHIFTING TO LIGHT N AND THEN NE.
IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW PREDICTING
GENERALLY VFR. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE FORMATION OF IFR ST/FOG OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH ANY LEFTOVER IFR DISSIPATING BY 14Z AND THEN
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT E WIND DURING
THE MORNING BECOMING SE TO S DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR KILG AND KRDG DURING THE AFTN. THUNDER
UNLIKELY IN OUR AREA.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.


OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...VFR ERLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH STRATUS/FOG
PSBL.  MDT CONFIDENCE

SAT...LOWER CONDITIONS PSBL ERLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING THE
DAY. SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY N AND W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT-MON...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
TSRA IS SUN WITH CFP SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
MONDAY NIGHT IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. SLY FLOW SHOULD
TURN NE TO E ALONG THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT ONSHORE FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT-SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY THE END
OF THE PD.

SAT NIGHT-MON...INCREASING SEAS ESPECIALLY LATER SUN INTO MON
WITH WIND INCREASING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME WITH THE FRONT TO
OUR S AND INCREASING NELY FLOW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WITH WINDS GUSTING UP AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 290140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER EASTERN
CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED WITHIN THE PAST TWO
HOURS OVER MOST OF THE REGION. SOME NEW SHOWERS HAVE BROKEN OUT
OVER NORTHEAST MARYLAND, BUT COVERAGE IS ISOLATED. ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED WEST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. RECENT HRRR
RUNS SUGGESTS THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH (SPEEDS VERY LIGHT) HIGHLIGHTS THE ARRIVAL
OF DRIER AIR ACROSS THE REGION. DEWPOINT DISCONTINUITY PROVIDES
BEST IDENTIFICATION OF FRONTAL BOUNDARY.

THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG/ST OVERNIGHT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
AREA WITH CONFIDENCE FOR FOG/STRATUS FORMATION BELOW AVG. PATCHY
FOG IS IN THE WEATHER GRIDS USING THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL.

OTHERWISE A FAIR NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH LATE AT
NIGHT DUE TO DRIER AIR.

FCST TEMPS ARE BASED ON THE WARMER 12Z/28 NAM MOS AND ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE IS DERIVED OFF A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A NICER DAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY KPHL
NORTHEASTWARD...WARM BUT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WITH LIGHT EAST
WINDS TURNING SE OR S DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOLER COASTS DUE TO
THE UPWELLED COOLER OCEAN WATERS, ESPECIALLY NNJ.

WE HAVE SMALL POPS IN DURING THE MORNING DELMARVA AND SPREADING
NWD THRU E PA IN THE AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG. IT SHOULD
BE RAINFREE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. ONLY CALLED IT
SHOWERS PER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CHANCEY AT WORST IN SW
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA

FCST TEMPS BASED ON THE WARMER OF THE AVBL 12Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE.
REMAINDER OF THE ELEMENTS DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/28 50 50 BLENDED
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF THE PD AS
CDFNT ADVANCES FROM THE W. WITH THE LOW OVER QUEBEC, WE WILL BE
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WITH OUT MANY TRIGGERS BESIDES DAYTIME
HEATING, EXPECT FRI NIGHT TO BE DRY AND EARLY SAT AS WELL. BY
LATER SAT, CUD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY N AND W.

BY LATER SAT INTO SUN, THIS IS OUR BEST SHOT TO SEE SOME DECENT
RAIN ACRS THE AREA, AND WE NEED IT. THE ECMWF, IS STILL A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE CFP, BUT OVERALL TIMING DIFFS HAVE DECREASED. SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN APPEARS TO BE THE WET TIME PD, THOUGH IT WONT BE
RAINING THE WHOLE TIME, AND CERTAINLY NOT EVERYONE WILL GET RAIN
AT THE SAME TIMES.

BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND BE ANCHORED IN
QUEBEC AS THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR S. NELY FLOW WILL SET IN THE
FCST WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP. EXPECT MON
TO BE COOL AND DREARY WHETHER OR NOT IT RAINS, BUT THERE WILL BE
SCT SHOWERS AT LEAST, AND PSBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. GUID IS
STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH DETERMINING OF WHERE THE STEADIEST
RAIN MIGHT BE AND HAS HAD PROBS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE FCST AROUND MON. THOSE STILL CONTINUE. IT SHUD BE
NOTED THAT THE CMC IS MUCH DRIER THAN EITHER THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
MON. THE GFS HAS A WET BIAS, BUT THE ECMWF, EXCEPT FOR ONE DAY
EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SOME PRECIP FOR MON.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN, THE COLD FRONT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY THROUGH THE
REGION AND LOOKS LIKELY TO REMAINED STALLED ACROSS OR NEAR OUR AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE NORTHEASTERN HIGH STARTS TO PUSH BACK INTO
OUR AREA, THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE, AROUND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
THEN REMAINS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

WITH THE FRONT REMAINING STALLED IN OUR AREA, A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT STARTS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR REGION, WE SHOULD REALLY START TO DRY
OUT, REMAINING DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TEMPS START OUT QUITE WARM, THEN TAKE A NOSEDIVE MON AND TUE
BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE NRML LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS WITH WIND SHIFTING TO LIGHT N AND THEN NE.
IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW PREDICTING
GENERALLY VFR. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE FORMATION OF IFR ST/FOG OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH ANY LEFTOVER IFR DISSIPATING BY 14Z AND THEN
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT E WIND DURING
THE MORNING BECOMING SE TO S DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR KILG AND KRDG DURING THE AFTN. THUNDER
UNLIKELY IN OUR AREA.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.


OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...VFR ERLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH STRATUS/FOG
PSBL.  MDT CONFIDENCE

SAT...LOWER CONDITIONS PSBL ERLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING THE
DAY. SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY N AND W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT-MON...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
TSRA IS SUN WITH CFP SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
MONDAY NIGHT IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. SLY FLOW SHOULD
TURN NE TO E ALONG THE WATERS OVERNIGHT AND LIGHT ONSHORE FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT-SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY THE END
OF THE PD.

SAT NIGHT-MON...INCREASING SEAS ESPECIALLY LATER SUN INTO MON
WITH WIND INCREASING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME WITH THE FRONT TO
OUR S AND INCREASING NELY FLOW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WITH WINDS GUSTING UP AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/SZATKOWSKI/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281944
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
344 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
EASTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AT 353 WE WILL CANCEL THE WATCH FOR THE NW NJ COUNTIES PER RECENT
COLLAB WITH SPC. CHECKING ON MORE DATA BETWEEN NOW AND THEN AND
THEN REWORKING GRIDS.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE PRETTY SMALL SO FAR WITH MOSTLY HYDRO
ISSUES IN COASTAL CENTRAL NJ AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
DEVELOPMENT THE REST OF THE DAY AS DRY AIR ALOFT CHOKES OFF
POTENTIAL EXCEPT MAYBE COASTAL NJ.

TONIGHT... THERE COULD BE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AFTER
6 PM, ESPECIALLY COASTAL NJ. WIND SHIFTS FROM WEST TO LIGHT NNE.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG/ST OVERNIGHT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH CONFIDENCE FOR FOG/STRATUS FORMATION BELOW AVG. WILL INSERT
PATCHY FOG INTO THE WEATHER USING THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL.

OTHERWISE A FAIR NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH LATE AT
NIGHT DUE TO DRIER AIR.

FCST TEMPS ARE BASED ON THE WARMER 12Z/28 NAM MOS AND ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE IS DERIVED OFF A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A NICER DAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY KPHL
NORTHEASTWARD...WARM BUT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WITH LIGHT EAST
WINDS TURNING SE OR S DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOLER COASTS DUE TO
THE UPWELLED COOLER OCEAN WATERS, ESPECIALLY NNJ.

WE HAVE SMALL POPS IN DURING THE MORNING DELMARVA AND SPREADING
NWD THRU E PA IN THE AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG. IT SHOULD
BE RAINFREE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. ONLY CALLED IT
SHOWERS PER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CHANCEY AT WORST IN SW
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA

FCST TEMPS BASED ON THE WARMER OF THE AVBL 12Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE.
REMAINDER OF THE ELEMENTS DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/28 50 50 BLENDED
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF THE PD AS
CDFNT ADVANCES FROM THE W. WITH THE LOW OVER QUEBEC, WE WILL BE
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WITH OUT MANY TRIGGERS BESIDES DAYTIME
HEATING, EXPECT FRI NIGHT TO BE DRY AND EARLY SAT AS WELL. BY
LATER SAT, CUD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY N AND W.

BY LATER SAT INTO SUN, THIS IS OUR BEST SHOT TO SEE SOME DECENT
RAIN ACRS THE AREA, AND WE NEED IT. THE ECMWF, IS STILL A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE CFP, BUT OVERALL TIMING DIFFS HAVE DECREASED. SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN APPEARS TO BE THE WET TIME PD, THOUGH IT WONT BE
RAINING THE WHOLE TIME, AND CERTAINLY NOT EVERYONE WILL GET RAIN
AT THE SAME TIMES.

BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND BE ANCHORED IN
QUEBEC AS THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR S. NELY FLOW WILL SET IN THE
FCST WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP. EXPECT MON
TO BE COOL AND DREARY WHETHER OR NOT IT RAINS, BUT THERE WILL BE
SCT SHOWERS AT LEAST, AND PSBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. GUID IS
STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH DETERMINING OF WHERE THE STEADIEST
RAIN MIGHT BE AND HAS HAD PROBS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE FCST AROUND MON. THOSE STILL CONTINUE. IT SHUD BE
NOTED THAT THE CMC IS MUCH DRIER THAN EITHER THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
MON. THE GFS HAS A WET BIAS, BUT THE ECMWF, EXCEPT FOR ONE DAY
EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SOME PRECIP FOR MON.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN, THE COLD FRONT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY THROUGH THE
REGION AND LOOKS LIKELY TO REMAINED STALLED ACROSS OR NEAR OUR AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE NORTHEASTERN HIGH STARTS TO PUSH BACK INTO
OUR AREA, THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE, AROUND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
THEN REMAINS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

WITH THE FRONT REMAINING STALLED IN OUR AREA, A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT STARTS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR REGION, WE SHOULD REALLY START TO DRY
OUT, REMAINING DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TEMPS START OUT QUITE WARM, THEN TAKE A NOSEDIVE MON AND TUE
BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE NRML LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH BRIEF
IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING NOW, MAINLY SE OF I-95. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS ON
TIMING ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG
ROUGHLY 21Z- 24Z TODAY. CONFIDENCE ON TSTM COVERAGE AND TIMING IS
LESS THAN IDEAL.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO LIGHT N AND
THEN NE. IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW
PREDICTING GENERALLY VFR. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORMATION OF IFR ST/FOG OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH ANY LEFTOVER IFR DISSIPATING BY 14Z AND THEN
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT E WIND DURING
THE MORNING BECOMING SE TO S DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR KILG AND KRDG DURING THE AFTN. THUNDER
UNLIKELY IN OUR AREA.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.



OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...VFR ERLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH STRATUS/FOG
PSBL.  MDT CONFIDENCE

SAT...LOWER CONDITIONS PSBL ERLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING THE
DAY. SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY N AND W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT-MON...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
TSRA IS SUN WITH CFP SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
MONDAY NIGHT IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. SLY
FLOW TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT AND LIGHT
ONSHORE FRIDAY.

STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES IN
THE 4P-630P TIME FRAME WHERE AN SMW MAY BE NEEDED?

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT-SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY THE END
OF THE PD.

SAT NIGHT-MON...INCREASING SEAS ESPECIALLY LATER SUN INTO MON
WITH WIND INCREASING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME WITH THE FRONT TO
OUR S AND INCREASING NELY FLOW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WITH WINDS GUSTING UP AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 344
SHORT TERM...DRAG 344
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/MEOLA 344
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG/MEOLA 344
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281944
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
344 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
EASTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AT 353 WE WILL CANCEL THE WATCH FOR THE NW NJ COUNTIES PER RECENT
COLLAB WITH SPC. CHECKING ON MORE DATA BETWEEN NOW AND THEN AND
THEN REWORKING GRIDS.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE PRETTY SMALL SO FAR WITH MOSTLY HYDRO
ISSUES IN COASTAL CENTRAL NJ AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
DEVELOPMENT THE REST OF THE DAY AS DRY AIR ALOFT CHOKES OFF
POTENTIAL EXCEPT MAYBE COASTAL NJ.

TONIGHT... THERE COULD BE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AFTER
6 PM, ESPECIALLY COASTAL NJ. WIND SHIFTS FROM WEST TO LIGHT NNE.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG/ST OVERNIGHT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH CONFIDENCE FOR FOG/STRATUS FORMATION BELOW AVG. WILL INSERT
PATCHY FOG INTO THE WEATHER USING THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL.

OTHERWISE A FAIR NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH LATE AT
NIGHT DUE TO DRIER AIR.

FCST TEMPS ARE BASED ON THE WARMER 12Z/28 NAM MOS AND ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE IS DERIVED OFF A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A NICER DAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY KPHL
NORTHEASTWARD...WARM BUT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WITH LIGHT EAST
WINDS TURNING SE OR S DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOLER COASTS DUE TO
THE UPWELLED COOLER OCEAN WATERS, ESPECIALLY NNJ.

WE HAVE SMALL POPS IN DURING THE MORNING DELMARVA AND SPREADING
NWD THRU E PA IN THE AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG. IT SHOULD
BE RAINFREE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. ONLY CALLED IT
SHOWERS PER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CHANCEY AT WORST IN SW
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA

FCST TEMPS BASED ON THE WARMER OF THE AVBL 12Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE.
REMAINDER OF THE ELEMENTS DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/28 50 50 BLENDED
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF THE PD AS
CDFNT ADVANCES FROM THE W. WITH THE LOW OVER QUEBEC, WE WILL BE
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WITH OUT MANY TRIGGERS BESIDES DAYTIME
HEATING, EXPECT FRI NIGHT TO BE DRY AND EARLY SAT AS WELL. BY
LATER SAT, CUD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY N AND W.

BY LATER SAT INTO SUN, THIS IS OUR BEST SHOT TO SEE SOME DECENT
RAIN ACRS THE AREA, AND WE NEED IT. THE ECMWF, IS STILL A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE CFP, BUT OVERALL TIMING DIFFS HAVE DECREASED. SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN APPEARS TO BE THE WET TIME PD, THOUGH IT WONT BE
RAINING THE WHOLE TIME, AND CERTAINLY NOT EVERYONE WILL GET RAIN
AT THE SAME TIMES.

BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND BE ANCHORED IN
QUEBEC AS THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR S. NELY FLOW WILL SET IN THE
FCST WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP. EXPECT MON
TO BE COOL AND DREARY WHETHER OR NOT IT RAINS, BUT THERE WILL BE
SCT SHOWERS AT LEAST, AND PSBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. GUID IS
STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH DETERMINING OF WHERE THE STEADIEST
RAIN MIGHT BE AND HAS HAD PROBS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE FCST AROUND MON. THOSE STILL CONTINUE. IT SHUD BE
NOTED THAT THE CMC IS MUCH DRIER THAN EITHER THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
MON. THE GFS HAS A WET BIAS, BUT THE ECMWF, EXCEPT FOR ONE DAY
EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SOME PRECIP FOR MON.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN, THE COLD FRONT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY THROUGH THE
REGION AND LOOKS LIKELY TO REMAINED STALLED ACROSS OR NEAR OUR AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE NORTHEASTERN HIGH STARTS TO PUSH BACK INTO
OUR AREA, THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE, AROUND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
THEN REMAINS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

WITH THE FRONT REMAINING STALLED IN OUR AREA, A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT STARTS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR REGION, WE SHOULD REALLY START TO DRY
OUT, REMAINING DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TEMPS START OUT QUITE WARM, THEN TAKE A NOSEDIVE MON AND TUE
BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE NRML LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH BRIEF
IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING NOW, MAINLY SE OF I-95. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS ON
TIMING ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG
ROUGHLY 21Z- 24Z TODAY. CONFIDENCE ON TSTM COVERAGE AND TIMING IS
LESS THAN IDEAL.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO LIGHT N AND
THEN NE. IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW
PREDICTING GENERALLY VFR. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORMATION OF IFR ST/FOG OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH ANY LEFTOVER IFR DISSIPATING BY 14Z AND THEN
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT E WIND DURING
THE MORNING BECOMING SE TO S DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR KILG AND KRDG DURING THE AFTN. THUNDER
UNLIKELY IN OUR AREA.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.



OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...VFR ERLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH STRATUS/FOG
PSBL.  MDT CONFIDENCE

SAT...LOWER CONDITIONS PSBL ERLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING THE
DAY. SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY N AND W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT-MON...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
TSRA IS SUN WITH CFP SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
MONDAY NIGHT IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. SLY
FLOW TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT AND LIGHT
ONSHORE FRIDAY.

STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES IN
THE 4P-630P TIME FRAME WHERE AN SMW MAY BE NEEDED?

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT-SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY THE END
OF THE PD.

SAT NIGHT-MON...INCREASING SEAS ESPECIALLY LATER SUN INTO MON
WITH WIND INCREASING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME WITH THE FRONT TO
OUR S AND INCREASING NELY FLOW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WITH WINDS GUSTING UP AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 344
SHORT TERM...DRAG 344
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/MEOLA 344
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG/MEOLA 344
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281944
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
344 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
EASTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AT 353 WE WILL CANCEL THE WATCH FOR THE NW NJ COUNTIES PER RECENT
COLLAB WITH SPC. CHECKING ON MORE DATA BETWEEN NOW AND THEN AND
THEN REWORKING GRIDS.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE PRETTY SMALL SO FAR WITH MOSTLY HYDRO
ISSUES IN COASTAL CENTRAL NJ AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
DEVELOPMENT THE REST OF THE DAY AS DRY AIR ALOFT CHOKES OFF
POTENTIAL EXCEPT MAYBE COASTAL NJ.

TONIGHT... THERE COULD BE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AFTER
6 PM, ESPECIALLY COASTAL NJ. WIND SHIFTS FROM WEST TO LIGHT NNE.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG/ST OVERNIGHT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH CONFIDENCE FOR FOG/STRATUS FORMATION BELOW AVG. WILL INSERT
PATCHY FOG INTO THE WEATHER USING THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL.

OTHERWISE A FAIR NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH LATE AT
NIGHT DUE TO DRIER AIR.

FCST TEMPS ARE BASED ON THE WARMER 12Z/28 NAM MOS AND ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE IS DERIVED OFF A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A NICER DAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY KPHL
NORTHEASTWARD...WARM BUT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WITH LIGHT EAST
WINDS TURNING SE OR S DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOLER COASTS DUE TO
THE UPWELLED COOLER OCEAN WATERS, ESPECIALLY NNJ.

WE HAVE SMALL POPS IN DURING THE MORNING DELMARVA AND SPREADING
NWD THRU E PA IN THE AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG. IT SHOULD
BE RAINFREE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. ONLY CALLED IT
SHOWERS PER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CHANCEY AT WORST IN SW
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA

FCST TEMPS BASED ON THE WARMER OF THE AVBL 12Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE.
REMAINDER OF THE ELEMENTS DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/28 50 50 BLENDED
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF THE PD AS
CDFNT ADVANCES FROM THE W. WITH THE LOW OVER QUEBEC, WE WILL BE
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WITH OUT MANY TRIGGERS BESIDES DAYTIME
HEATING, EXPECT FRI NIGHT TO BE DRY AND EARLY SAT AS WELL. BY
LATER SAT, CUD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY N AND W.

BY LATER SAT INTO SUN, THIS IS OUR BEST SHOT TO SEE SOME DECENT
RAIN ACRS THE AREA, AND WE NEED IT. THE ECMWF, IS STILL A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE CFP, BUT OVERALL TIMING DIFFS HAVE DECREASED. SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN APPEARS TO BE THE WET TIME PD, THOUGH IT WONT BE
RAINING THE WHOLE TIME, AND CERTAINLY NOT EVERYONE WILL GET RAIN
AT THE SAME TIMES.

BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND BE ANCHORED IN
QUEBEC AS THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR S. NELY FLOW WILL SET IN THE
FCST WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP. EXPECT MON
TO BE COOL AND DREARY WHETHER OR NOT IT RAINS, BUT THERE WILL BE
SCT SHOWERS AT LEAST, AND PSBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. GUID IS
STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH DETERMINING OF WHERE THE STEADIEST
RAIN MIGHT BE AND HAS HAD PROBS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE FCST AROUND MON. THOSE STILL CONTINUE. IT SHUD BE
NOTED THAT THE CMC IS MUCH DRIER THAN EITHER THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
MON. THE GFS HAS A WET BIAS, BUT THE ECMWF, EXCEPT FOR ONE DAY
EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SOME PRECIP FOR MON.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN, THE COLD FRONT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY THROUGH THE
REGION AND LOOKS LIKELY TO REMAINED STALLED ACROSS OR NEAR OUR AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE NORTHEASTERN HIGH STARTS TO PUSH BACK INTO
OUR AREA, THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE, AROUND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
THEN REMAINS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

WITH THE FRONT REMAINING STALLED IN OUR AREA, A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT STARTS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR REGION, WE SHOULD REALLY START TO DRY
OUT, REMAINING DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TEMPS START OUT QUITE WARM, THEN TAKE A NOSEDIVE MON AND TUE
BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE NRML LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH BRIEF
IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING NOW, MAINLY SE OF I-95. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS ON
TIMING ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG
ROUGHLY 21Z- 24Z TODAY. CONFIDENCE ON TSTM COVERAGE AND TIMING IS
LESS THAN IDEAL.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO LIGHT N AND
THEN NE. IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW
PREDICTING GENERALLY VFR. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORMATION OF IFR ST/FOG OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH ANY LEFTOVER IFR DISSIPATING BY 14Z AND THEN
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT E WIND DURING
THE MORNING BECOMING SE TO S DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR KILG AND KRDG DURING THE AFTN. THUNDER
UNLIKELY IN OUR AREA.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.



OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...VFR ERLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH STRATUS/FOG
PSBL.  MDT CONFIDENCE

SAT...LOWER CONDITIONS PSBL ERLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING THE
DAY. SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY N AND W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT-MON...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
TSRA IS SUN WITH CFP SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
MONDAY NIGHT IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. SLY
FLOW TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT AND LIGHT
ONSHORE FRIDAY.

STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES IN
THE 4P-630P TIME FRAME WHERE AN SMW MAY BE NEEDED?

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT-SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY THE END
OF THE PD.

SAT NIGHT-MON...INCREASING SEAS ESPECIALLY LATER SUN INTO MON
WITH WIND INCREASING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME WITH THE FRONT TO
OUR S AND INCREASING NELY FLOW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WITH WINDS GUSTING UP AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 344
SHORT TERM...DRAG 344
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/MEOLA 344
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG/MEOLA 344
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281944
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
344 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
EASTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
AT 353 WE WILL CANCEL THE WATCH FOR THE NW NJ COUNTIES PER RECENT
COLLAB WITH SPC. CHECKING ON MORE DATA BETWEEN NOW AND THEN AND
THEN REWORKING GRIDS.

MOST OF THE SHOWERS ARE PRETTY SMALL SO FAR WITH MOSTLY HYDRO
ISSUES IN COASTAL CENTRAL NJ AND NOT EXPECTING MUCH MORE
DEVELOPMENT THE REST OF THE DAY AS DRY AIR ALOFT CHOKES OFF
POTENTIAL EXCEPT MAYBE COASTAL NJ.

TONIGHT... THERE COULD BE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AFTER
6 PM, ESPECIALLY COASTAL NJ. WIND SHIFTS FROM WEST TO LIGHT NNE.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG/ST OVERNIGHT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH CONFIDENCE FOR FOG/STRATUS FORMATION BELOW AVG. WILL INSERT
PATCHY FOG INTO THE WEATHER USING THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL.

OTHERWISE A FAIR NIGHT AND A FEW DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH LATE AT
NIGHT DUE TO DRIER AIR.

FCST TEMPS ARE BASED ON THE WARMER 12Z/28 NAM MOS AND ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE IS DERIVED OFF A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A NICER DAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY KPHL
NORTHEASTWARD...WARM BUT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WITH LIGHT EAST
WINDS TURNING SE OR S DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOLER COASTS DUE TO
THE UPWELLED COOLER OCEAN WATERS, ESPECIALLY NNJ.

WE HAVE SMALL POPS IN DURING THE MORNING DELMARVA AND SPREADING
NWD THRU E PA IN THE AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG. IT SHOULD
BE RAINFREE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY. ONLY CALLED IT
SHOWERS PER MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND CHANCEY AT WORST IN SW
PORTION OF THE FCST AREA

FCST TEMPS BASED ON THE WARMER OF THE AVBL 12Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE.
REMAINDER OF THE ELEMENTS DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/28 50 50 BLENDED
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF THE PD AS
CDFNT ADVANCES FROM THE W. WITH THE LOW OVER QUEBEC, WE WILL BE
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WITH OUT MANY TRIGGERS BESIDES DAYTIME
HEATING, EXPECT FRI NIGHT TO BE DRY AND EARLY SAT AS WELL. BY
LATER SAT, CUD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY N AND W.

BY LATER SAT INTO SUN, THIS IS OUR BEST SHOT TO SEE SOME DECENT
RAIN ACRS THE AREA, AND WE NEED IT. THE ECMWF, IS STILL A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE CFP, BUT OVERALL TIMING DIFFS HAVE DECREASED. SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN APPEARS TO BE THE WET TIME PD, THOUGH IT WONT BE
RAINING THE WHOLE TIME, AND CERTAINLY NOT EVERYONE WILL GET RAIN
AT THE SAME TIMES.

BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND BE ANCHORED IN
QUEBEC AS THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR S. NELY FLOW WILL SET IN THE
FCST WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP. EXPECT MON
TO BE COOL AND DREARY WHETHER OR NOT IT RAINS, BUT THERE WILL BE
SCT SHOWERS AT LEAST, AND PSBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. GUID IS
STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH DETERMINING OF WHERE THE STEADIEST
RAIN MIGHT BE AND HAS HAD PROBS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE FCST AROUND MON. THOSE STILL CONTINUE. IT SHUD BE
NOTED THAT THE CMC IS MUCH DRIER THAN EITHER THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
MON. THE GFS HAS A WET BIAS, BUT THE ECMWF, EXCEPT FOR ONE DAY
EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SOME PRECIP FOR MON.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN, THE COLD FRONT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY THROUGH THE
REGION AND LOOKS LIKELY TO REMAINED STALLED ACROSS OR NEAR OUR AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE NORTHEASTERN HIGH STARTS TO PUSH BACK INTO
OUR AREA, THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE, AROUND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
THEN REMAINS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

WITH THE FRONT REMAINING STALLED IN OUR AREA, A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT STARTS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR REGION, WE SHOULD REALLY START TO DRY
OUT, REMAINING DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TEMPS START OUT QUITE WARM, THEN TAKE A NOSEDIVE MON AND TUE
BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE NRML LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH BRIEF
IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING NOW, MAINLY SE OF I-95. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS ON
TIMING ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG
ROUGHLY 21Z- 24Z TODAY. CONFIDENCE ON TSTM COVERAGE AND TIMING IS
LESS THAN IDEAL.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO LIGHT N AND
THEN NE. IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW
PREDICTING GENERALLY VFR. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORMATION OF IFR ST/FOG OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH ANY LEFTOVER IFR DISSIPATING BY 14Z AND THEN
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT E WIND DURING
THE MORNING BECOMING SE TO S DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE FOR KILG AND KRDG DURING THE AFTN. THUNDER
UNLIKELY IN OUR AREA.

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.



OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...VFR ERLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH STRATUS/FOG
PSBL.  MDT CONFIDENCE

SAT...LOWER CONDITIONS PSBL ERLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING THE
DAY. SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY N AND W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT-MON...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
TSRA IS SUN WITH CFP SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
MONDAY NIGHT IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY. SLY
FLOW TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT AND LIGHT
ONSHORE FRIDAY.

STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MONMOUTH AND OCEAN COUNTIES IN
THE 4P-630P TIME FRAME WHERE AN SMW MAY BE NEEDED?

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT-SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY THE END
OF THE PD.

SAT NIGHT-MON...INCREASING SEAS ESPECIALLY LATER SUN INTO MON
WITH WIND INCREASING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME WITH THE FRONT TO
OUR S AND INCREASING NELY FLOW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WITH WINDS GUSTING UP AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 344
SHORT TERM...DRAG 344
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/MEOLA 344
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG/MEOLA 344
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281933
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
333 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS EVENING. HIGH
PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL THEN SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER
EASTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS
TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
145 PM ESTF: WATCH SHOWERS AND TSTMS POP NOW WEST OF PHL AND SINCE
1 PM VCNTY KBLM/KMJX.

1230 PM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID MORNING UPDATES EXCEPT THE
SVR WATCH 233 WORDING FOR NNJ.

DRY AIR OVERCOMES POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE POCONOS BY 2 PM AND
SO THEN, HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST DO TSTMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...WE THINK THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE NNJ...ALONG
AND N OF I78, BUT THIS IS ADJUSTABLE BASED ON REALITY.

830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.

TONIGHT... THERE COULD BE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AFTER
6 PM, ESPECIALLY COASTAL NJ. WIND SHIFTS FROM WEST TO LIGHT NNE.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG/ST OVERNIGHT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH CONFIDENCE FOR FOG/STRATUS FORMATION BELOW AVG. WILL INSERT
PATCHY FOG INTO THE WEATHER USING THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL.

OTHERWISE A FAIR NIGHT AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH DUE
TO DRIER ALOFT NOW FILTERING IN AS SEEN VIA THE KMSV 7F DEWPOINT
DROP IN 1 HR AT 17Z.

FCST TEMPS ARE BASED ON THE WARMER 12Z/28 NAM MOS AND ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE IS DERIVED OFF A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
A NICER DAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY KPHL
NORTHEASTWARD...WARM BUT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WITH LIGHT EAST
WINDS TURNING SE OR S DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOLER COASTS DUE TO
THE UPWELLED COOLER OCEAN WATERS, ESPECIALLY NNJ.

WE HAVE POPS IN DURING THE MORNING DELMARVA AND SPREADING NWD
THRU E PA IN THE AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG. IT SHOULD BE
RAINFREE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

FCST TEMPS BASED ON THE WARMER OF THE AVBL 12Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE.
REMAINDER OF THE ELEMENTS DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/28 50 50 BLENDED
GFS/NAM MOS.
&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN OFF THE COAST FOR THE START OF THE PD AS
CDFNT ADVANCES FROM THE W. WITH THE LOW OVER QUEBEC, WE WILL BE
WELL IN THE WARM SECTOR AND WITH OUT MANY TRIGGERS BESIDES DAYTIME
HEATING, EXPECT FRI NIGHT TO BE DRY AND EARLY SAT AS WELL. BY
LATER SAT, CUD SEE A FEW SHRA/TSTMS MAINLY N AND W.

BY LATER SAT INTO SUN, THIS IS OUR BEST SHOT TO SEE SOME DECENT
RAIN ACRS THE AREA, AND WE NEED IT. THE ECMWF, IS STILL A BIT
SLOWER WITH THE CFP, BUT OVERALL TIMING DIFFS HAVE DECREASED. SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN APPEARS TO BE THE WET TIME PD, THOUGH IT WONT BE
RAINING THE WHOLE TIME, AND CERTAINLY NOT EVERYONE WILL GET RAIN
AT THE SAME TIMES.

BEHIND THE FRONT, HIGH PRES WILL MOVE TO THE N AND BE ANCHORED IN
QUEBEC AS THE FRONT STALLS TO OUR S. NELY FLOW WILL SET IN THE
FCST WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT ON WHERE THE FRONT SETS UP. EXPECT MON
TO BE COOL AND DREARY WHETHER OR NOT IT RAINS, BUT THERE WILL BE
SCT SHOWERS AT LEAST, AND PSBLY MORE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP. GUID IS
STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY WITH DETERMINING OF WHERE THE STEADIEST
RAIN MIGHT BE AND HAS HAD PROBS OVER THE LAST FEW DAYS WITH THE
DETAILS OF THE FCST AROUND MON. THOSE STILL CONTINUE. IT SHUD BE
NOTED THAT THE CMC IS MUCH DRIER THAN EITHER THE GFS AND ECMWF ON
MON. THE GFS HAS A WET BIAS, BUT THE ECMWF, EXCEPT FOR ONE DAY
EARLIER THIS WEEK HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH SOME PRECIP FOR MON.

HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE REGION
MONDAY NIGHT. WITH HIGH PRESSURE REMAINING ENTRENCHED OVER THE
ATLANTIC OCEAN, THE COLD FRONT MAKES LITTLE HEADWAY THROUGH THE
REGION AND LOOKS LIKELY TO REMAINED STALLED ACROSS OR NEAR OUR AREA
THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE NORTHEASTERN HIGH STARTS TO PUSH BACK INTO
OUR AREA, THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE, AROUND WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH
THEN REMAINS OVER OUR AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

WITH THE FRONT REMAINING STALLED IN OUR AREA, A CHANCE FOR SOME
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. AS THE FRONT STARTS TO PUSH
OFFSHORE SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL EXIT FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AND
AS THE HIGH BUILDS INTO OUR REGION, WE SHOULD REALLY START TO DRY
OUT, REMAINING DRY THROUGH THURSDAY.

TEMPS START OUT QUITE WARM, THEN TAKE A NOSEDIVE MON AND TUE
BEFORE RETURNING TO MORE NRML LEVELS BY THE END OF THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH BRIEF
IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING NOW, MAINLY IN NJ. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS ON TIMING
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-
24Z TODAY. CONFIDENCE ON TSTM COVERAGE AND TIMING IS LESS THAN
IDEAL.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO LIGHT N AND
THEN NE. IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW
PREDICTING GENERALLY VFR. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORMATION OF IFR ST/FOG OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH ANY LEFTOVER IFR DISSIPATING BY 14Z AND THEN
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT E WIND DURING
THE MORNING BECOMING SE TO S DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR KILG AND KRDG DURING THE AFTN

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.



OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT...VFR ERLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH STRATUS/FOG
PSBL.  MDT CONFIDENCE

SAT...LOWER CONDITIONS PSBL ERLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING THE
DAY. SCT SHRA/TSRA MAINLY N AND W. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT-MON...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
TSRA IS SUN WITH CFP SAT NIGHT INTO SUN. LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT
DETAILS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST. LINGERING SHOWERS WITH MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES
MONDAY NIGHT IMPROVING TO VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON ON
TUESDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MONMOUTH AND NORTHERN OCEAN
COUNTIES IN THE 4P-630P TIME FRAME WHERE AN SMW MAY BE NEEDED?

OUTLOOK...

FRI NIGHT-SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST
AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES AND SEAS COULD APPROACH 5 FT BY THE END
OF THE PD.

SAT NIGHT-MON...INCREASING SEAS ESPECIALLY LATER SUN INTO MON
WITH WIND INCREASING ABOVE SCA CRITERIA AS WELL. AN SCA WILL
LIKELY BE BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THIS TIME WITH THE FRONT TO
OUR S AND INCREASING NELY FLOW.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...EASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY. SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED ABOVE 5 FEET
ON THE OCEAN WITH WINDS GUSTING UP AROUND 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
157 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
145 PM ESTF: WATCH SHOWERS AND TSTMS POP NOW WEST OF PHL AND SINCE
1 PM VCNTY KBLM/KMJX.

1230 PM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID MORNING UPDATES EXCEPT THE
SVR WATCH 233 WORDING FOR NNJ.

DRY AIR OVERCOMES POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE POCONOS BY 2 PM AND
SO THEN, HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST DO TSTMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...WE THINK THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE NNJ...ALONG
AND N OF I78, BUT THIS IS ADJUSTABLE BASED ON REALITY.

830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.

TONIGHT... THERE COULD BE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AFTER
6 PM, ESPECIALLY COASTAL NJ. WIND SHIFTS FROM WEST TO LIGHT NNE.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG/ST OVERNIGHT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH CONFIDENCE FOR FOG/STRATUS FORMATION BELOW AVG. WILL INSERT
PATCHY FOG INTO THE WEATHER USING THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL.

OTHERWISE A FAIR NIGHT AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH DUE
TO DRIER ALOFT NOW FILTERING IN AS SEEN VIA THE KMSV 7F DEWPOINT
DROP IN 1 HR AT 17Z.

FCST TEMPS ARE BASED ON THE WARMER 12Z/28 NAM MOS AND ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE IS DERIVED OFF A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A NICER DAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY KPHL
NORTHEASTWARD...WARM BUT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WITH LIGHT EAST
WINDS TURNING SE OR S DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOLER COASTS DUE TO
THE UPWELLED COOLER OCEAN WATERS, ESPECIALLY NNJ.

WE HAVE POPS IN DURING THE MORNING DELMARVA AND SPREADING NWD
THRU E PA IN THE AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG. IT SHOULD BE
RAINFREE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

FCST TEMPS BASED ON THE WARMER OF THE AVBL 12Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE.
REMAINDER OF THE ELEMENTS DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/28 50 50 BLENDED
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH BRIEF
IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING NOW, MAINLY IN NJ. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS ON TIMING
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-
24Z TODAY. CONFIDENCE ON TSTM COVERAGE AND TIMING IS LESS THAN
IDEAL.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO LIGHT N AND
THEN NE. IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW
PREDICTING GENERALLY VFR. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORMATION OF IFR ST/FOG OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH ANY LEFTOVER IFR DISSIPATING BY 14Z AND THEN
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT E WIND DURING
THE MORNING BECOMING SE TO S DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR KILG AND KRDG DURING THE AFTN

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MONMOUTH AND NORTHERN OCEAN
COUNTIES IN THE 4P-630P TIME FRAME WHERE AN SMW MAY BE NEEDED?

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON/DRAG  156P
NEAR TERM...DRAG 156P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 156P
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 156P
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 156P
RIP CURRENTS...156P
CLIMATE...156P




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
157 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
145 PM ESTF: WATCH SHOWERS AND TSTMS POP NOW WEST OF PHL AND SINCE
1 PM VCNTY KBLM/KMJX.

1230 PM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID MORNING UPDATES EXCEPT THE
SVR WATCH 233 WORDING FOR NNJ.

DRY AIR OVERCOMES POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE POCONOS BY 2 PM AND
SO THEN, HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST DO TSTMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...WE THINK THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE NNJ...ALONG
AND N OF I78, BUT THIS IS ADJUSTABLE BASED ON REALITY.

830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.

TONIGHT... THERE COULD BE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AFTER
6 PM, ESPECIALLY COASTAL NJ. WIND SHIFTS FROM WEST TO LIGHT NNE.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG/ST OVERNIGHT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH CONFIDENCE FOR FOG/STRATUS FORMATION BELOW AVG. WILL INSERT
PATCHY FOG INTO THE WEATHER USING THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL.

OTHERWISE A FAIR NIGHT AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH DUE
TO DRIER ALOFT NOW FILTERING IN AS SEEN VIA THE KMSV 7F DEWPOINT
DROP IN 1 HR AT 17Z.

FCST TEMPS ARE BASED ON THE WARMER 12Z/28 NAM MOS AND ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE IS DERIVED OFF A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A NICER DAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY KPHL
NORTHEASTWARD...WARM BUT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WITH LIGHT EAST
WINDS TURNING SE OR S DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOLER COASTS DUE TO
THE UPWELLED COOLER OCEAN WATERS, ESPECIALLY NNJ.

WE HAVE POPS IN DURING THE MORNING DELMARVA AND SPREADING NWD
THRU E PA IN THE AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG. IT SHOULD BE
RAINFREE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

FCST TEMPS BASED ON THE WARMER OF THE AVBL 12Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE.
REMAINDER OF THE ELEMENTS DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/28 50 50 BLENDED
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH BRIEF
IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING NOW, MAINLY IN NJ. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS ON TIMING
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-
24Z TODAY. CONFIDENCE ON TSTM COVERAGE AND TIMING IS LESS THAN
IDEAL.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO LIGHT N AND
THEN NE. IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW
PREDICTING GENERALLY VFR. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORMATION OF IFR ST/FOG OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH ANY LEFTOVER IFR DISSIPATING BY 14Z AND THEN
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT E WIND DURING
THE MORNING BECOMING SE TO S DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR KILG AND KRDG DURING THE AFTN

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MONMOUTH AND NORTHERN OCEAN
COUNTIES IN THE 4P-630P TIME FRAME WHERE AN SMW MAY BE NEEDED?

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON/DRAG  156P
NEAR TERM...DRAG 156P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 156P
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 156P
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 156P
RIP CURRENTS...156P
CLIMATE...156P



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
157 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
145 PM ESTF: WATCH SHOWERS AND TSTMS POP NOW WEST OF PHL AND SINCE
1 PM VCNTY KBLM/KMJX.

1230 PM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID MORNING UPDATES EXCEPT THE
SVR WATCH 233 WORDING FOR NNJ.

DRY AIR OVERCOMES POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE POCONOS BY 2 PM AND
SO THEN, HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST DO TSTMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...WE THINK THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE NNJ...ALONG
AND N OF I78, BUT THIS IS ADJUSTABLE BASED ON REALITY.

830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.

TONIGHT... THERE COULD BE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AFTER
6 PM, ESPECIALLY COASTAL NJ. WIND SHIFTS FROM WEST TO LIGHT NNE.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG/ST OVERNIGHT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH CONFIDENCE FOR FOG/STRATUS FORMATION BELOW AVG. WILL INSERT
PATCHY FOG INTO THE WEATHER USING THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL.

OTHERWISE A FAIR NIGHT AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH DUE
TO DRIER ALOFT NOW FILTERING IN AS SEEN VIA THE KMSV 7F DEWPOINT
DROP IN 1 HR AT 17Z.

FCST TEMPS ARE BASED ON THE WARMER 12Z/28 NAM MOS AND ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE IS DERIVED OFF A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A NICER DAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY KPHL
NORTHEASTWARD...WARM BUT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WITH LIGHT EAST
WINDS TURNING SE OR S DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOLER COASTS DUE TO
THE UPWELLED COOLER OCEAN WATERS, ESPECIALLY NNJ.

WE HAVE POPS IN DURING THE MORNING DELMARVA AND SPREADING NWD
THRU E PA IN THE AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG. IT SHOULD BE
RAINFREE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

FCST TEMPS BASED ON THE WARMER OF THE AVBL 12Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE.
REMAINDER OF THE ELEMENTS DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/28 50 50 BLENDED
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH BRIEF
IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING NOW, MAINLY IN NJ. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS ON TIMING
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-
24Z TODAY. CONFIDENCE ON TSTM COVERAGE AND TIMING IS LESS THAN
IDEAL.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO LIGHT N AND
THEN NE. IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW
PREDICTING GENERALLY VFR. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORMATION OF IFR ST/FOG OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH ANY LEFTOVER IFR DISSIPATING BY 14Z AND THEN
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT E WIND DURING
THE MORNING BECOMING SE TO S DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR KILG AND KRDG DURING THE AFTN

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MONMOUTH AND NORTHERN OCEAN
COUNTIES IN THE 4P-630P TIME FRAME WHERE AN SMW MAY BE NEEDED?

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON/DRAG  156P
NEAR TERM...DRAG 156P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 156P
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 156P
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 156P
RIP CURRENTS...156P
CLIMATE...156P



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
157 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
145 PM ESTF: WATCH SHOWERS AND TSTMS POP NOW WEST OF PHL AND SINCE
1 PM VCNTY KBLM/KMJX.

1230 PM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID MORNING UPDATES EXCEPT THE
SVR WATCH 233 WORDING FOR NNJ.

DRY AIR OVERCOMES POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE POCONOS BY 2 PM AND
SO THEN, HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST DO TSTMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...WE THINK THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE NNJ...ALONG
AND N OF I78, BUT THIS IS ADJUSTABLE BASED ON REALITY.

830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.

TONIGHT... THERE COULD BE LEFTOVER SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS AFTER
6 PM, ESPECIALLY COASTAL NJ. WIND SHIFTS FROM WEST TO LIGHT NNE.
THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG/ST OVERNIGHT IN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WITH CONFIDENCE FOR FOG/STRATUS FORMATION BELOW AVG. WILL INSERT
PATCHY FOG INTO THE WEATHER USING THE UPS CROSSOVER TOOL.

OTHERWISE A FAIR NIGHT AND MAYBE A FEW DEGREES COOLER UP NORTH DUE
TO DRIER ALOFT NOW FILTERING IN AS SEEN VIA THE KMSV 7F DEWPOINT
DROP IN 1 HR AT 17Z.

FCST TEMPS ARE BASED ON THE WARMER 12Z/28 NAM MOS AND ALL OTHER
GUIDANCE IS DERIVED OFF A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
A NICER DAY WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS...AN IDEAL SUMMER DAY KPHL
NORTHEASTWARD...WARM BUT RELATIVELY COMFORTABLE WITH LIGHT EAST
WINDS TURNING SE OR S DURING THE AFTERNOON. COOLER COASTS DUE TO
THE UPWELLED COOLER OCEAN WATERS, ESPECIALLY NNJ.

WE HAVE POPS IN DURING THE MORNING DELMARVA AND SPREADING NWD
THRU E PA IN THE AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE IS BELOW AVG. IT SHOULD BE
RAINFREE MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA ON FRIDAY.

FCST TEMPS BASED ON THE WARMER OF THE AVBL 12Z/28 NCEP GUIDANCE.
REMAINDER OF THE ELEMENTS DERIVED FROM THE 12Z/28 50 50 BLENDED
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH BRIEF
IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING NOW, MAINLY IN NJ. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS ON TIMING
ANY SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-
24Z TODAY. CONFIDENCE ON TSTM COVERAGE AND TIMING IS LESS THAN
IDEAL.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO LIGHT N AND
THEN NE. IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW
PREDICTING GENERALLY VFR. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE FORMATION OF IFR ST/FOG OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR WITH ANY LEFTOVER IFR DISSIPATING BY 14Z AND THEN
SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 4000 FT DURING THE AFTN. LIGHT E WIND DURING
THE MORNING BECOMING SE TO S DURING THE AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR KILG AND KRDG DURING THE AFTN

CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MONMOUTH AND NORTHERN OCEAN
COUNTIES IN THE 4P-630P TIME FRAME WHERE AN SMW MAY BE NEEDED?

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING THE
NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP DUE TO NLY FLOW CAA SUNDAY
EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON/DRAG  156P
NEAR TERM...DRAG 156P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 156P
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 156P
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 156P
RIP CURRENTS...156P
CLIMATE...156P




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281634
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1234 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID MORNING UPDATES EXCEPT THE
SVR WATCH 233 WORDING FOR NNJ.

DRY AIR OVERCOMES POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE POCONOS BY 2 PM AND
SO THEN, HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST DO TSTMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...WE THINK THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE NNJ...ALONG
AND N OF I78, BUT THIS ADJUSTABLE BASED ON REALITY.

830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. SOME MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM, BRING THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
TO THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THEN DON/T SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. THIS DOESN/T
SEEM REALISTIC EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, SO SEE LITTLE REASON THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THUS FORECAST
FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION, HAVING THE FRONT MOVE OFF SHORE AROUND
06Z. REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR STORMS DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA TO BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ONE AREA WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS (CMC, GFS, AND ECMWF), BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS AND
WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z, MAINY IN NJ. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS ON TIMING ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-
24Z TODAY. CONFIDENCE ON TSTM COVERAGE AND TIMING IS LESS THAN
IDEAL.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO N AND THEN NE.
IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW PREDICTING
VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MONMOUTH AND NORTHERN OCEAN
COUNTIES IN THE 4P-630P TIME FRAME WHERE AN SMW MAY BE NEEDED?

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4


LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING
THE NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP FOR CAA ON NLY
FLOW SUNDAY EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON/DRAG 1234
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1234
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1234
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1234
RIP CURRENTS...1234
CLIMATE...1234




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281634
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1234 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID MORNING UPDATES EXCEPT THE
SVR WATCH 233 WORDING FOR NNJ.

DRY AIR OVERCOMES POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE POCONOS BY 2 PM AND
SO THEN, HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST DO TSTMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...WE THINK THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE NNJ...ALONG
AND N OF I78, BUT THIS ADJUSTABLE BASED ON REALITY.

830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. SOME MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM, BRING THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
TO THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THEN DON/T SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. THIS DOESN/T
SEEM REALISTIC EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, SO SEE LITTLE REASON THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THUS FORECAST
FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION, HAVING THE FRONT MOVE OFF SHORE AROUND
06Z. REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR STORMS DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA TO BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ONE AREA WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS (CMC, GFS, AND ECMWF), BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS AND
WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z, MAINY IN NJ. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS ON TIMING ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-
24Z TODAY. CONFIDENCE ON TSTM COVERAGE AND TIMING IS LESS THAN
IDEAL.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO N AND THEN NE.
IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW PREDICTING
VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MONMOUTH AND NORTHERN OCEAN
COUNTIES IN THE 4P-630P TIME FRAME WHERE AN SMW MAY BE NEEDED?

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4


LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING
THE NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP FOR CAA ON NLY
FLOW SUNDAY EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON/DRAG 1234
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1234
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1234
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1234
RIP CURRENTS...1234
CLIMATE...1234



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281634
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1234 PM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1230 PM ESTF: LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID MORNING UPDATES EXCEPT THE
SVR WATCH 233 WORDING FOR NNJ.

DRY AIR OVERCOMES POTENTIAL INSTABILITY IN THE POCONOS BY 2 PM AND
SO THEN, HOW FAR SOUTH AND WEST DO TSTMS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON.
FOR NOW...WE THINK THE MOST WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY WILL BE NNJ...ALONG
AND N OF I78, BUT THIS ADJUSTABLE BASED ON REALITY.

830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. SOME MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM, BRING THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
TO THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THEN DON/T SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. THIS DOESN/T
SEEM REALISTIC EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, SO SEE LITTLE REASON THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THUS FORECAST
FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION, HAVING THE FRONT MOVE OFF SHORE AROUND
06Z. REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR STORMS DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA TO BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ONE AREA WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS (CMC, GFS, AND ECMWF), BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS AND
WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING AFTER
18Z, MAINY IN NJ. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS ON TIMING ANY
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-
24Z TODAY. CONFIDENCE ON TSTM COVERAGE AND TIMING IS LESS THAN
IDEAL.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO N AND THEN NE.
IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW PREDICTING
VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

STRONGEST TSTM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MONMOUTH AND NORTHERN OCEAN
COUNTIES IN THE 4P-630P TIME FRAME WHERE AN SMW MAY BE NEEDED?

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4


LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR 5 AM SFT AND COOLING
THE NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP FOR CAA ON NLY
FLOW SUNDAY EVENING.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON/DRAG 1234
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1234
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1234
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 1234
RIP CURRENTS...1234
CLIMATE...1234




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281548
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1148 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1136 AM: A SVR TSTM WATCH WILL POST FOR NNJ AROUND 1155AM FOR THE
FAR NNJ COUNTIES.

830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.

FROM THE EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION BELOW.

COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING OUR REGION TODAY. INTERESTINGLY, MOST
MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR WESTERN
SECTIONS BY 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER DESPITE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR OUR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS (MORE ON THAT
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION). COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET PROPAGATES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS, AND THUS HIGHEST
POPS, LOOK TO BE AFTER 18Z IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ONE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THAT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA,
IT SHOULD BE A FACTOR IN LIMITING STORM COVERAGE.

AS FOR HAZARDS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS NW NJ AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES COULD BE NEAR 40 KT (PRIMARILY
SPEED SHEAR) WITH MODEST (LESS THAN 500 J/KG CAPE) INSTABILITY. WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THIS AREA IN THE HWO. SHEAR
VALUES, AND THUS STRONG STORM THREAT, DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS YOU GO
FURTHER SOUTH THANKS AGAIN TO THE HIGH BUILDING IN. WITH THIS HIGH,
ANY STORM MOTIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
QUITE SLOW (15 KT OR LESS), BUT OTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS FOR A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE LIMITED, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. SOME MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM, BRING THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
TO THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THEN DON/T SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. THIS DOESN/T
SEEM REALISTIC EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, SO SEE LITTLE REASON THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THUS FORECAST
FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION, HAVING THE FRONT MOVE OFF SHORE AROUND
06Z. REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR STORMS DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA TO BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ONE AREA WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS (CMC, GFS, AND ECMWF), BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AT 15Z WILL LIFT TO VFR CIGS THIS AFTN
WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR
DETAILS ON TIMING CIG/VSBY IMPROVEMENT AND TIMING OF ANTICIPATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-
24Z TODAY.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO N AND THEN NE.
IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW PREDICTING
VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4


LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR SFT FCST AND COOLING THE
THE NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP FOR CAA ON NLY
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO OTHER AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND
KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1148A
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...1148A
CLIMATE...1148A




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281548
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1148 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1136 AM: A SVR TSTM WATCH WILL POST FOR NNJ AROUND 1155AM FOR THE
FAR NNJ COUNTIES.

830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.

FROM THE EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION BELOW.

COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING OUR REGION TODAY. INTERESTINGLY, MOST
MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR WESTERN
SECTIONS BY 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER DESPITE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR OUR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS (MORE ON THAT
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION). COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET PROPAGATES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS, AND THUS HIGHEST
POPS, LOOK TO BE AFTER 18Z IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ONE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THAT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA,
IT SHOULD BE A FACTOR IN LIMITING STORM COVERAGE.

AS FOR HAZARDS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS NW NJ AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES COULD BE NEAR 40 KT (PRIMARILY
SPEED SHEAR) WITH MODEST (LESS THAN 500 J/KG CAPE) INSTABILITY. WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THIS AREA IN THE HWO. SHEAR
VALUES, AND THUS STRONG STORM THREAT, DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS YOU GO
FURTHER SOUTH THANKS AGAIN TO THE HIGH BUILDING IN. WITH THIS HIGH,
ANY STORM MOTIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
QUITE SLOW (15 KT OR LESS), BUT OTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS FOR A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE LIMITED, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. SOME MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM, BRING THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
TO THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THEN DON/T SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. THIS DOESN/T
SEEM REALISTIC EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, SO SEE LITTLE REASON THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THUS FORECAST
FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION, HAVING THE FRONT MOVE OFF SHORE AROUND
06Z. REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR STORMS DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA TO BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ONE AREA WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS (CMC, GFS, AND ECMWF), BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AT 15Z WILL LIFT TO VFR CIGS THIS AFTN
WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR
DETAILS ON TIMING CIG/VSBY IMPROVEMENT AND TIMING OF ANTICIPATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-
24Z TODAY.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO N AND THEN NE.
IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW PREDICTING
VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4


LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR SFT FCST AND COOLING THE
THE NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP FOR CAA ON NLY
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.


ATLANTIC CITY  MAY 2015 65.9 OR 4.8 ABOVE NORMAL AND PROBABLE #3
POR BACK TO 1874

2004 66.9
1991 66.0
2015


WILMINGTON DE SOLID POR BACK TO 1916 LOCKED INTO #4 WARMEST
1896 70.1
1991 69.1
2004 68.2
2015

NO OTHER AVAILABLE MONTHLY HISTORICAL DATA FOR KMPO KGED KTTN AND
KRDG.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 1148A
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...1148A
CLIMATE...1148A



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281512
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1112 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.

FROM THE EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION BELOW.

COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING OUR REGION TODAY. INTERESTINGLY, MOST
MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR WESTERN
SECTIONS BY 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER DESPITE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR OUR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS (MORE ON THAT
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION). COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET PROPAGATES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS, AND THUS HIGHEST
POPS, LOOK TO BE AFTER 18Z IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ONE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THAT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA,
IT SHOULD BE A FACTOR IN LIMITING STORM COVERAGE.

AS FOR HAZARDS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS NW NJ AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES COULD BE NEAR 40 KT (PRIMARILY
SPEED SHEAR) WITH MODEST (LESS THAN 500 J/KG CAPE) INSTABILITY. WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THIS AREA IN THE HWO. SHEAR
VALUES, AND THUS STRONG STORM THREAT, DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS YOU GO
FURTHER SOUTH THANKS AGAIN TO THE HIGH BUILDING IN. WITH THIS HIGH,
ANY STORM MOTIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
QUITE SLOW (15 KT OR LESS), BUT OTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS FOR A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE LIMITED, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. SOME MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM, BRING THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
TO THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THEN DON/T SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. THIS DOESN/T
SEEM REALISTIC EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, SO SEE LITTLE REASON THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THUS FORECAST
FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION, HAVING THE FRONT MOVE OFF SHORE AROUND
06Z. REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR STORMS DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA TO BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ONE AREA WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS (CMC, GFS, AND ECMWF), BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AT 15Z WILL LIFT TO VFR CIGS THIS AFTN
WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR
DETAILS ON TIMING CIG/VSBY IMPROVEMENT AND TIMING OF ANTICIPATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-
24Z TODAY.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO N AND THEN NE.
IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW PREDICTING
VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4


LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR SFT FCST AND COOLING THE
THE NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP FOR CAA ON NLY
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...1112
CLIMATE...1112



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281512
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1112 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.

FROM THE EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION BELOW.

COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING OUR REGION TODAY. INTERESTINGLY, MOST
MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR WESTERN
SECTIONS BY 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER DESPITE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR OUR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS (MORE ON THAT
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION). COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET PROPAGATES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS, AND THUS HIGHEST
POPS, LOOK TO BE AFTER 18Z IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ONE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THAT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA,
IT SHOULD BE A FACTOR IN LIMITING STORM COVERAGE.

AS FOR HAZARDS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS NW NJ AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES COULD BE NEAR 40 KT (PRIMARILY
SPEED SHEAR) WITH MODEST (LESS THAN 500 J/KG CAPE) INSTABILITY. WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THIS AREA IN THE HWO. SHEAR
VALUES, AND THUS STRONG STORM THREAT, DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS YOU GO
FURTHER SOUTH THANKS AGAIN TO THE HIGH BUILDING IN. WITH THIS HIGH,
ANY STORM MOTIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
QUITE SLOW (15 KT OR LESS), BUT OTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS FOR A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE LIMITED, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. SOME MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM, BRING THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
TO THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THEN DON/T SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. THIS DOESN/T
SEEM REALISTIC EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, SO SEE LITTLE REASON THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THUS FORECAST
FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION, HAVING THE FRONT MOVE OFF SHORE AROUND
06Z. REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR STORMS DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA TO BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ONE AREA WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS (CMC, GFS, AND ECMWF), BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AT 15Z WILL LIFT TO VFR CIGS THIS AFTN
WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR
DETAILS ON TIMING CIG/VSBY IMPROVEMENT AND TIMING OF ANTICIPATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-
24Z TODAY.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO N AND THEN NE.
IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW PREDICTING
VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4


LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR SFT FCST AND COOLING THE
THE NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP FOR CAA ON NLY
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...1112
CLIMATE...1112



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281512
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1112 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.

FROM THE EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION BELOW.

COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING OUR REGION TODAY. INTERESTINGLY, MOST
MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR WESTERN
SECTIONS BY 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER DESPITE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR OUR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS (MORE ON THAT
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION). COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET PROPAGATES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS, AND THUS HIGHEST
POPS, LOOK TO BE AFTER 18Z IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ONE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THAT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA,
IT SHOULD BE A FACTOR IN LIMITING STORM COVERAGE.

AS FOR HAZARDS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS NW NJ AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES COULD BE NEAR 40 KT (PRIMARILY
SPEED SHEAR) WITH MODEST (LESS THAN 500 J/KG CAPE) INSTABILITY. WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THIS AREA IN THE HWO. SHEAR
VALUES, AND THUS STRONG STORM THREAT, DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS YOU GO
FURTHER SOUTH THANKS AGAIN TO THE HIGH BUILDING IN. WITH THIS HIGH,
ANY STORM MOTIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
QUITE SLOW (15 KT OR LESS), BUT OTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS FOR A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE LIMITED, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. SOME MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM, BRING THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
TO THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THEN DON/T SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. THIS DOESN/T
SEEM REALISTIC EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, SO SEE LITTLE REASON THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THUS FORECAST
FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION, HAVING THE FRONT MOVE OFF SHORE AROUND
06Z. REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR STORMS DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA TO BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ONE AREA WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS (CMC, GFS, AND ECMWF), BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AT 15Z WILL LIFT TO VFR CIGS THIS AFTN
WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR
DETAILS ON TIMING CIG/VSBY IMPROVEMENT AND TIMING OF ANTICIPATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-
24Z TODAY.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO N AND THEN NE.
IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW PREDICTING
VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4


LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR SFT FCST AND COOLING THE
THE NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP FOR CAA ON NLY
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...1112
CLIMATE...1112



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281512
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1112 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.

FROM THE EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION BELOW.

COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING OUR REGION TODAY. INTERESTINGLY, MOST
MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR WESTERN
SECTIONS BY 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER DESPITE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR OUR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS (MORE ON THAT
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION). COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET PROPAGATES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS, AND THUS HIGHEST
POPS, LOOK TO BE AFTER 18Z IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ONE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THAT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA,
IT SHOULD BE A FACTOR IN LIMITING STORM COVERAGE.

AS FOR HAZARDS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS NW NJ AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES COULD BE NEAR 40 KT (PRIMARILY
SPEED SHEAR) WITH MODEST (LESS THAN 500 J/KG CAPE) INSTABILITY. WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THIS AREA IN THE HWO. SHEAR
VALUES, AND THUS STRONG STORM THREAT, DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS YOU GO
FURTHER SOUTH THANKS AGAIN TO THE HIGH BUILDING IN. WITH THIS HIGH,
ANY STORM MOTIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
QUITE SLOW (15 KT OR LESS), BUT OTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS FOR A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE LIMITED, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. SOME MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM, BRING THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
TO THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THEN DON/T SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. THIS DOESN/T
SEEM REALISTIC EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, SO SEE LITTLE REASON THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THUS FORECAST
FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION, HAVING THE FRONT MOVE OFF SHORE AROUND
06Z. REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR STORMS DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA TO BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ONE AREA WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS (CMC, GFS, AND ECMWF), BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...AREAS OF MVFR CIGS AT 15Z WILL LIFT TO VFR CIGS THIS AFTN
WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTN, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR
DETAILS ON TIMING CIG/VSBY IMPROVEMENT AND TIMING OF ANTICIPATED
SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-
24Z TODAY.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO N AND THEN NE.
IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW PREDICTING
VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4


LOW RISK CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.

SUBSTANTIAL UPWELLING OCCURRED YESTERDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW,
ESPECIALLY NNJ WATERS WHERE 44065 WATER TEMP DROPPED ALMOST 9
DEGREES IN 24 HRS DOWN INTO THE UPPER 40S EARLIER THIS MORNING.

CHILLY TO SWIM MOST OF CENTRAL AND NNJ BEACHES DESPITE WELL ABOVE
NORMAL LAND TEMPS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
MAY 2015...A TOP 5 WARMEST ON RECORD FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

CONSERVATIVE VALUES LISTED BELOW FROM OUR SFT FCST AND COOLING THE
THE NEAR MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT MAY 31 LOW TEMP FOR CAA ON NLY
FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT.

ALLENTOWN WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE VERY CLOSE TO 65.9 OR 6 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. POR BACK TO 1922.  AT LEAST 5TH WARMEST ON RECORD.
1991 67.2
2012 66.1
1944 66.0
2004 65.9


PHILADELPHIA WILL PROBABLY AVERAGE CLOSE TO 69.7 DEGREES OR 5.8
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.  SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD.

1991 70.8

NUMBER 3 WOULD BE 69.2 IN 2004.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...1112
CLIMATE...1112



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281304
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
904 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.

FROM THE EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION BELOW.

COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING OUR REGION TODAY. INTERESTINGLY, MOST
MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR WESTERN
SECTIONS BY 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER DESPITE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR OUR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS (MORE ON THAT
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION). COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET PROPAGATES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS, AND THUS HIGHEST
POPS, LOOK TO BE AFTER 18Z IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ONE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THAT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA,
IT SHOULD BE A FACTOR IN LIMITING STORM COVERAGE.

AS FOR HAZARDS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS NW NJ AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES COULD BE NEAR 40 KT (PRIMARILY
SPEED SHEAR) WITH MODEST (LESS THAN 500 J/KG CAPE) INSTABILITY. WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THIS AREA IN THE HWO. SHEAR
VALUES, AND THUS STRONG STORM THREAT, DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS YOU GO
FURTHER SOUTH THANKS AGAIN TO THE HIGH BUILDING IN. WITH THIS HIGH,
ANY STORM MOTIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
QUITE SLOW (15 KT OR LESS), BUT OTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS FOR A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE LIMITED, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. SOME MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM, BRING THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
TO THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THEN DON/T SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. THIS DOESN/T
SEEM REALISTIC EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, SO SEE LITTLE REASON THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THUS FORECAST
FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION, HAVING THE FRONT MOVE OFF SHORE AROUND
06Z. REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR STORMS DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA TO BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ONE AREA WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS (CMC, GFS, AND ECMWF), BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...AREAS OF IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG E PA AND NJ AT 13Z WILL LIFT
TO VFR CIGS THIS AFTN WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT
IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z.
PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS ON TIMING CIG/VSBY IMPROVEMENT AND
TIMING OF ANTICIPATED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS
KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-24Z TODAY.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO N AND THEN NE.
IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW PREDICTING
VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON/DRAG 904
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 904
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 904
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 904
RIP CURRENTS...904




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281304
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
904 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
830 AM ESTF UPDATE: MORE CLOUD COVER THIS MORNING, RAISED TEMPS 2
DEGS THIS AFTN AND INCLUDES 90 PHL. FOR PNE THIS WOULD BE A HEAT
WAVE SO PARTS OF OUR AREA HAVE BEEN FLIRTING WITH 90F SINCE MEMORIAL
DAY. SEE NO REASON THAT IT IS ANY COOLER TODAY THAN YDY, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE COLD FRONT STILL NEAR KIPT. ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO PORTIONS
OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY DELAWARE RIVER EAST.
PWAT A BIT LESS THAN YDY. PROBABLY CLOSE TO 1.5 THIS AFTN. STILL
PLENTY FOR FOR BRIEF TORRENTIAL SHOWERS.

DECENT MODELED MLCAPE OF 1000+J. SHEAR MARGINAL BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
FOR 1 OR 2 SVR STORMS, ESP MORE FAVORABLE 0-6KM SPEED SHEAR REGION
OF NNJ AS PER CONTINUED 1240Z SPC D1 OUTLOOK.

FROM THE EARLY MORNING DISCUSSION BELOW.

COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING OUR REGION TODAY. INTERESTINGLY, MOST
MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR WESTERN
SECTIONS BY 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER DESPITE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR OUR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS (MORE ON THAT
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION). COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET PROPAGATES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS, AND THUS HIGHEST
POPS, LOOK TO BE AFTER 18Z IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ONE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THAT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA,
IT SHOULD BE A FACTOR IN LIMITING STORM COVERAGE.

AS FOR HAZARDS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS NW NJ AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES COULD BE NEAR 40 KT (PRIMARILY
SPEED SHEAR) WITH MODEST (LESS THAN 500 J/KG CAPE) INSTABILITY. WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THIS AREA IN THE HWO. SHEAR
VALUES, AND THUS STRONG STORM THREAT, DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS YOU GO
FURTHER SOUTH THANKS AGAIN TO THE HIGH BUILDING IN. WITH THIS HIGH,
ANY STORM MOTIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
QUITE SLOW (15 KT OR LESS), BUT OTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS FOR A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE LIMITED, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. SOME MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM, BRING THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
TO THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THEN DON/T SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. THIS DOESN/T
SEEM REALISTIC EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, SO SEE LITTLE REASON THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THUS FORECAST
FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION, HAVING THE FRONT MOVE OFF SHORE AROUND
06Z. REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR STORMS DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA TO BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ONE AREA WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS (CMC, GFS, AND ECMWF), BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...AREAS OF IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG E PA AND NJ AT 13Z WILL LIFT
TO VFR CIGS THIS AFTN WITH BRIEF IFR CONDS AND WNW WIND GUST 28-38KT
IN SCT-BKN SHOWERS/TSTMS DEVELOPING THIS AFTN, ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z.
PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR DETAILS ON TIMING CIG/VSBY IMPROVEMENT AND
TIMING OF ANTICIPATED SHOWERS/TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON. CFP POCONOS
KABE/KRDG ROUGHLY 21Z-24Z TODAY.

TONIGHT...CFP OCCURS ELSEWHERE WITH WIND SHIFTING TO N AND THEN NE.
IFR ST/FOG MAY FORM IN THE FRONTAL ZONE OVERNIGHT OTRW PREDICTING
VFR.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN GUSTY WINDS NEAR ANY TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT. SLY FLOW
TODAY SHOULD TURN NE ALONG THE NNE WATERS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
NEW WEBLINK, WORKS BEST ON FIREFOX. DISPLAYS THE FCST GRAPHIC ETC.

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/SURFRIP4

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON/DRAG 904
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 904
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 904
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 904
RIP CURRENTS...904



000
FXUS61 KPHI 280932
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
532 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING OUR REGION TODAY. INTERESTINGLY, MOST
MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR WESTERN
SECTIONS BY 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER DESPITE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR OUR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS (MORE ON THAT
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION). COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET PROPAGATES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS, AND THUS HIGHEST
POPS, LOOK TO BE AFTER 18Z IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ONE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THAT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA,
IT SHOULD BE A FACTOR IN LIMITING STORM COVERAGE.

AS FOR HAZARDS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS NW NJ AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES COULD BE NEAR 40 KT (PRIMARILY
SPEED SHEAR) WITH MODEST (LESS THAN 500 J/KG CAPE) INSTABILITY. WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THIS AREA IN THE HWO. SHEAR
VALUES, AND THUS STRONG STORM THREAT, DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS YOU GO
FURTHER SOUTH THANKS AGAIN TO THE HIGH BUILDING IN. WITH THIS HIGH,
ANY STORM MOTIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
QUITE SLOW (15 KT OR LESS), BUT OTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS FOR A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE LIMITED, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. SOME MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM, BRING THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
TO THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THEN DON/T SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. THIS DOESN/T
SEEM REALISTIC EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, SO SEE LITTLE REASON THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THUS FORECAST
FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION, HAVING THE FRONT MOVE OFF SHORE AROUND
06Z. REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR STORMS DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA TO BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ONE AREA WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS (CMC, GFS, AND ECMWF), BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY FG/BR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT KRDG AND KABE THROUGH 12Z. FOR
THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND COASTAL SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KMIV, KACY
AND KILG), EXPECT BRIEF INTERMITTENT IMPACTS (PRIMARILY MVFR EXCEPT
AT KTTN) THROUGH THIS TIME AS WELL. AFTER SUNRISE, WINDS SHOULD
SETTLE IN OUT OF THE SW. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHRA BETWEEN 12 AND
15Z, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION AROUND 18Z. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, COULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS,
THOUGH HIGHER CHANCES LOOK TO STAY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES, WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH. AS FOR THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT, AND THUS A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS,
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IT ARRIVING AT KRDG AND KABE BY 21Z.
CONSIDERABLY LESS CONFIDENCE FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES. HAVE CHOSEN TO
GO WITH A FASTER SOLUTION THAN WHAT THE NAM OR GFS LAMP ARE SHOWING
GIVEN A RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE OVERALL PATTERN, WITH AN ARRIVAL IN
THE DELAWARE VALLEY BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z, AND AT THE COASTAL SITES BY
06Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED. THUS, HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA A BIT EARLY.
THIS AFTERNOON, A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WIND SHIFT WITH A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 280932
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
532 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING OUR REGION TODAY. INTERESTINGLY, MOST
MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR WESTERN
SECTIONS BY 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER DESPITE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR OUR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS (MORE ON THAT
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION). COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET PROPAGATES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS, AND THUS HIGHEST
POPS, LOOK TO BE AFTER 18Z IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ONE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THAT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA,
IT SHOULD BE A FACTOR IN LIMITING STORM COVERAGE.

AS FOR HAZARDS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS NW NJ AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES COULD BE NEAR 40 KT (PRIMARILY
SPEED SHEAR) WITH MODEST (LESS THAN 500 J/KG CAPE) INSTABILITY. WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THIS AREA IN THE HWO. SHEAR
VALUES, AND THUS STRONG STORM THREAT, DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS YOU GO
FURTHER SOUTH THANKS AGAIN TO THE HIGH BUILDING IN. WITH THIS HIGH,
ANY STORM MOTIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
QUITE SLOW (15 KT OR LESS), BUT OTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS FOR A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE LIMITED, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. SOME MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM, BRING THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
TO THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THEN DON/T SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. THIS DOESN/T
SEEM REALISTIC EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, SO SEE LITTLE REASON THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THUS FORECAST
FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION, HAVING THE FRONT MOVE OFF SHORE AROUND
06Z. REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR STORMS DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA TO BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ONE AREA WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS (CMC, GFS, AND ECMWF), BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY FG/BR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT KRDG AND KABE THROUGH 12Z. FOR
THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND COASTAL SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KMIV, KACY
AND KILG), EXPECT BRIEF INTERMITTENT IMPACTS (PRIMARILY MVFR EXCEPT
AT KTTN) THROUGH THIS TIME AS WELL. AFTER SUNRISE, WINDS SHOULD
SETTLE IN OUT OF THE SW. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHRA BETWEEN 12 AND
15Z, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION AROUND 18Z. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, COULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS,
THOUGH HIGHER CHANCES LOOK TO STAY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES, WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH. AS FOR THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT, AND THUS A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS,
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IT ARRIVING AT KRDG AND KABE BY 21Z.
CONSIDERABLY LESS CONFIDENCE FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES. HAVE CHOSEN TO
GO WITH A FASTER SOLUTION THAN WHAT THE NAM OR GFS LAMP ARE SHOWING
GIVEN A RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE OVERALL PATTERN, WITH AN ARRIVAL IN
THE DELAWARE VALLEY BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z, AND AT THE COASTAL SITES BY
06Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED. THUS, HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA A BIT EARLY.
THIS AFTERNOON, A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WIND SHIFT WITH A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 280932
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
532 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING OUR REGION TODAY. INTERESTINGLY, MOST
MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR WESTERN
SECTIONS BY 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER DESPITE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR OUR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS (MORE ON THAT
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION). COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET PROPAGATES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS, AND THUS HIGHEST
POPS, LOOK TO BE AFTER 18Z IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ONE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THAT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA,
IT SHOULD BE A FACTOR IN LIMITING STORM COVERAGE.

AS FOR HAZARDS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS NW NJ AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES COULD BE NEAR 40 KT (PRIMARILY
SPEED SHEAR) WITH MODEST (LESS THAN 500 J/KG CAPE) INSTABILITY. WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THIS AREA IN THE HWO. SHEAR
VALUES, AND THUS STRONG STORM THREAT, DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS YOU GO
FURTHER SOUTH THANKS AGAIN TO THE HIGH BUILDING IN. WITH THIS HIGH,
ANY STORM MOTIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
QUITE SLOW (15 KT OR LESS), BUT OTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS FOR A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE LIMITED, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. SOME MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM, BRING THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
TO THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THEN DON/T SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. THIS DOESN/T
SEEM REALISTIC EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, SO SEE LITTLE REASON THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THUS FORECAST
FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION, HAVING THE FRONT MOVE OFF SHORE AROUND
06Z. REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR STORMS DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA TO BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ONE AREA WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS (CMC, GFS, AND ECMWF), BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY FG/BR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT KRDG AND KABE THROUGH 12Z. FOR
THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND COASTAL SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KMIV, KACY
AND KILG), EXPECT BRIEF INTERMITTENT IMPACTS (PRIMARILY MVFR EXCEPT
AT KTTN) THROUGH THIS TIME AS WELL. AFTER SUNRISE, WINDS SHOULD
SETTLE IN OUT OF THE SW. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHRA BETWEEN 12 AND
15Z, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION AROUND 18Z. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, COULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS,
THOUGH HIGHER CHANCES LOOK TO STAY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES, WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH. AS FOR THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT, AND THUS A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS,
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IT ARRIVING AT KRDG AND KABE BY 21Z.
CONSIDERABLY LESS CONFIDENCE FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES. HAVE CHOSEN TO
GO WITH A FASTER SOLUTION THAN WHAT THE NAM OR GFS LAMP ARE SHOWING
GIVEN A RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE OVERALL PATTERN, WITH AN ARRIVAL IN
THE DELAWARE VALLEY BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z, AND AT THE COASTAL SITES BY
06Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED. THUS, HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA A BIT EARLY.
THIS AFTERNOON, A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WIND SHIFT WITH A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 280932
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
532 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING OUR REGION TODAY. INTERESTINGLY, MOST
MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR WESTERN
SECTIONS BY 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER DESPITE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR OUR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS (MORE ON THAT
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION). COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET PROPAGATES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS, AND THUS HIGHEST
POPS, LOOK TO BE AFTER 18Z IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ONE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THAT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA,
IT SHOULD BE A FACTOR IN LIMITING STORM COVERAGE.

AS FOR HAZARDS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS NW NJ AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES COULD BE NEAR 40 KT (PRIMARILY
SPEED SHEAR) WITH MODEST (LESS THAN 500 J/KG CAPE) INSTABILITY. WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THIS AREA IN THE HWO. SHEAR
VALUES, AND THUS STRONG STORM THREAT, DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS YOU GO
FURTHER SOUTH THANKS AGAIN TO THE HIGH BUILDING IN. WITH THIS HIGH,
ANY STORM MOTIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
QUITE SLOW (15 KT OR LESS), BUT OTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS FOR A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE LIMITED, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. SOME MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM, BRING THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
TO THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THEN DON/T SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. THIS DOESN/T
SEEM REALISTIC EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, SO SEE LITTLE REASON THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THUS FORECAST
FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION, HAVING THE FRONT MOVE OFF SHORE AROUND
06Z. REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR STORMS DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA TO BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ONE AREA WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS (CMC, GFS, AND ECMWF), BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY FG/BR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT KRDG AND KABE THROUGH 12Z. FOR
THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND COASTAL SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KMIV, KACY
AND KILG), EXPECT BRIEF INTERMITTENT IMPACTS (PRIMARILY MVFR EXCEPT
AT KTTN) THROUGH THIS TIME AS WELL. AFTER SUNRISE, WINDS SHOULD
SETTLE IN OUT OF THE SW. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHRA BETWEEN 12 AND
15Z, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION AROUND 18Z. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, COULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS,
THOUGH HIGHER CHANCES LOOK TO STAY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES, WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH. AS FOR THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT, AND THUS A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS,
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IT ARRIVING AT KRDG AND KABE BY 21Z.
CONSIDERABLY LESS CONFIDENCE FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES. HAVE CHOSEN TO
GO WITH A FASTER SOLUTION THAN WHAT THE NAM OR GFS LAMP ARE SHOWING
GIVEN A RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE OVERALL PATTERN, WITH AN ARRIVAL IN
THE DELAWARE VALLEY BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z, AND AT THE COASTAL SITES BY
06Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED. THUS, HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA A BIT EARLY.
THIS AFTERNOON, A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WIND SHIFT WITH A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 280932
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
532 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING OUR REGION TODAY. INTERESTINGLY, MOST
MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR WESTERN
SECTIONS BY 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER DESPITE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR OUR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS (MORE ON THAT
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION). COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET PROPAGATES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS, AND THUS HIGHEST
POPS, LOOK TO BE AFTER 18Z IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ONE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THAT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA,
IT SHOULD BE A FACTOR IN LIMITING STORM COVERAGE.

AS FOR HAZARDS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS NW NJ AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES COULD BE NEAR 40 KT (PRIMARILY
SPEED SHEAR) WITH MODEST (LESS THAN 500 J/KG CAPE) INSTABILITY. WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THIS AREA IN THE HWO. SHEAR
VALUES, AND THUS STRONG STORM THREAT, DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS YOU GO
FURTHER SOUTH THANKS AGAIN TO THE HIGH BUILDING IN. WITH THIS HIGH,
ANY STORM MOTIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
QUITE SLOW (15 KT OR LESS), BUT OTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS FOR A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE LIMITED, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. SOME MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM, BRING THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
TO THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THEN DON/T SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. THIS DOESN/T
SEEM REALISTIC EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, SO SEE LITTLE REASON THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THUS FORECAST
FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION, HAVING THE FRONT MOVE OFF SHORE AROUND
06Z. REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR STORMS DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA TO BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ONE AREA WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS (CMC, GFS, AND ECMWF), BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY FG/BR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT KRDG AND KABE THROUGH 12Z. FOR
THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND COASTAL SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KMIV, KACY
AND KILG), EXPECT BRIEF INTERMITTENT IMPACTS (PRIMARILY MVFR EXCEPT
AT KTTN) THROUGH THIS TIME AS WELL. AFTER SUNRISE, WINDS SHOULD
SETTLE IN OUT OF THE SW. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHRA BETWEEN 12 AND
15Z, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION AROUND 18Z. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, COULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS,
THOUGH HIGHER CHANCES LOOK TO STAY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES, WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH. AS FOR THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT, AND THUS A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS,
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IT ARRIVING AT KRDG AND KABE BY 21Z.
CONSIDERABLY LESS CONFIDENCE FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES. HAVE CHOSEN TO
GO WITH A FASTER SOLUTION THAN WHAT THE NAM OR GFS LAMP ARE SHOWING
GIVEN A RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE OVERALL PATTERN, WITH AN ARRIVAL IN
THE DELAWARE VALLEY BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z, AND AT THE COASTAL SITES BY
06Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED. THUS, HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA A BIT EARLY.
THIS AFTERNOON, A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WIND SHIFT WITH A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 280932
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
532 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING OUR REGION TODAY. INTERESTINGLY, MOST
MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR WESTERN
SECTIONS BY 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER DESPITE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR OUR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS (MORE ON THAT
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION). COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET PROPAGATES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS, AND THUS HIGHEST
POPS, LOOK TO BE AFTER 18Z IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ONE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THAT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA,
IT SHOULD BE A FACTOR IN LIMITING STORM COVERAGE.

AS FOR HAZARDS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS NW NJ AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES COULD BE NEAR 40 KT (PRIMARILY
SPEED SHEAR) WITH MODEST (LESS THAN 500 J/KG CAPE) INSTABILITY. WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THIS AREA IN THE HWO. SHEAR
VALUES, AND THUS STRONG STORM THREAT, DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS YOU GO
FURTHER SOUTH THANKS AGAIN TO THE HIGH BUILDING IN. WITH THIS HIGH,
ANY STORM MOTIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
QUITE SLOW (15 KT OR LESS), BUT OTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS FOR A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE LIMITED, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. SOME MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM, BRING THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
TO THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THEN DON/T SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. THIS DOESN/T
SEEM REALISTIC EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, SO SEE LITTLE REASON THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THUS FORECAST
FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION, HAVING THE FRONT MOVE OFF SHORE AROUND
06Z. REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR STORMS DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA TO BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ONE AREA WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS (CMC, GFS, AND ECMWF), BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY FG/BR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT KRDG AND KABE THROUGH 12Z. FOR
THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND COASTAL SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KMIV, KACY
AND KILG), EXPECT BRIEF INTERMITTENT IMPACTS (PRIMARILY MVFR EXCEPT
AT KTTN) THROUGH THIS TIME AS WELL. AFTER SUNRISE, WINDS SHOULD
SETTLE IN OUT OF THE SW. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHRA BETWEEN 12 AND
15Z, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION AROUND 18Z. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, COULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS,
THOUGH HIGHER CHANCES LOOK TO STAY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES, WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH. AS FOR THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT, AND THUS A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS,
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IT ARRIVING AT KRDG AND KABE BY 21Z.
CONSIDERABLY LESS CONFIDENCE FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES. HAVE CHOSEN TO
GO WITH A FASTER SOLUTION THAN WHAT THE NAM OR GFS LAMP ARE SHOWING
GIVEN A RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE OVERALL PATTERN, WITH AN ARRIVAL IN
THE DELAWARE VALLEY BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z, AND AT THE COASTAL SITES BY
06Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SEAS HAVE DIMINISHED. THUS, HAVE CANCELLED THE SCA A BIT EARLY.
THIS AFTERNOON, A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR JUST ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE
ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA. HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE VICINITY OF ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WIND SHIFT WITH A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 280731
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING OUR REGION TODAY. INTERESTINGLY, MOST
MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR WESTERN
SECTIONS BY 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER DESPITE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR OUR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS (MORE ON THAT
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION). COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET PROPAGATES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS, AND THUS HIGHEST
POPS, LOOK TO BE AFTER 18Z IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ONE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THAT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA,
IT SHOULD BE A FACTOR IN LIMITING STORM COVERAGE.

AS FOR HAZARDS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS NW NJ AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES COULD BE NEAR 40 KT (PRIMARILY
SPEED SHEAR) WITH MODEST (LESS THAN 500 J/KG CAPE) INSTABILITY. WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THIS AREA IN THE HWO. SHEAR
VALUES, AND THUS STRONG STORM THREAT, DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS YOU GO
FURTHER SOUTH THANKS AGAIN TO THE HIGH BUILDING IN. WITH THIS HIGH,
ANY STORM MOTIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
QUITE SLOW (15 KT OR LESS), BUT OTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS FOR A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE LIMITED, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. SOME MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM, BRING THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
TO THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THEN DON/T SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. THIS DOESN/T
SEEM REALISTIC EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, SO SEE LITTLE REASON THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THUS FORECAST
FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION, HAVING THE FRONT MOVE OFF SHORE AROUND
06Z. REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR STORMS DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA TO BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ONE AREA WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS (CMC, GFS, AND ECMWF), BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY FG/BR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT KRDG AND KABE THROUGH 12Z. FOR
THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND COASTAL SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KMIV, KACY
AND KILG), EXPECT BRIEF INTERMITTENT IMPACTS (PRIMARILY MVFR EXCEPT
AT KTTN) THROUGH THIS TIME AS WELL. AFTER SUNRISE, WINDS SHOULD
SETTLE IN OUT OF THE SW. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHRA BETWEEN 12 AND
15Z, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION AROUND 18Z. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, COULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS,
THOUGH HIGHER CHANCES LOOK TO STAY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES, WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH. AS FOR THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT, AND THUS A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS,
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IT ARRIVING AT KRDG AND KABE BY 21Z.
CONSIDERABLY LESS CONFIDENCE FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES. HAVE CHOSEN TO
GO WITH A FASTER SOLUTION THAN WHAT THE NAM OR GFS LAMP ARE SHOWING
GIVEN A RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE OVERALL PATTERN, WITH AN ARRIVAL IN
THE DELAWARE VALLEY BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z, AND AT THE COASTAL SITES BY
06Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW SITES CONTINUE TO SHOW WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5 FT, SO WILL KEEP
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 6AM, BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY EXTENSIONS AT THIS TIME. THIS AFTERNOON, A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. A WIND SHIFT WITH A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 280731
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING OUR REGION TODAY. INTERESTINGLY, MOST
MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR WESTERN
SECTIONS BY 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER DESPITE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR OUR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS (MORE ON THAT
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION). COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET PROPAGATES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS, AND THUS HIGHEST
POPS, LOOK TO BE AFTER 18Z IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ONE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THAT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA,
IT SHOULD BE A FACTOR IN LIMITING STORM COVERAGE.

AS FOR HAZARDS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS NW NJ AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES COULD BE NEAR 40 KT (PRIMARILY
SPEED SHEAR) WITH MODEST (LESS THAN 500 J/KG CAPE) INSTABILITY. WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THIS AREA IN THE HWO. SHEAR
VALUES, AND THUS STRONG STORM THREAT, DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS YOU GO
FURTHER SOUTH THANKS AGAIN TO THE HIGH BUILDING IN. WITH THIS HIGH,
ANY STORM MOTIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
QUITE SLOW (15 KT OR LESS), BUT OTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS FOR A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE LIMITED, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. SOME MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM, BRING THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
TO THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THEN DON/T SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. THIS DOESN/T
SEEM REALISTIC EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, SO SEE LITTLE REASON THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THUS FORECAST
FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION, HAVING THE FRONT MOVE OFF SHORE AROUND
06Z. REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR STORMS DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA TO BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ONE AREA WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS (CMC, GFS, AND ECMWF), BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY FG/BR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT KRDG AND KABE THROUGH 12Z. FOR
THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND COASTAL SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KMIV, KACY
AND KILG), EXPECT BRIEF INTERMITTENT IMPACTS (PRIMARILY MVFR EXCEPT
AT KTTN) THROUGH THIS TIME AS WELL. AFTER SUNRISE, WINDS SHOULD
SETTLE IN OUT OF THE SW. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHRA BETWEEN 12 AND
15Z, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION AROUND 18Z. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, COULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS,
THOUGH HIGHER CHANCES LOOK TO STAY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES, WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH. AS FOR THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT, AND THUS A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS,
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IT ARRIVING AT KRDG AND KABE BY 21Z.
CONSIDERABLY LESS CONFIDENCE FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES. HAVE CHOSEN TO
GO WITH A FASTER SOLUTION THAN WHAT THE NAM OR GFS LAMP ARE SHOWING
GIVEN A RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE OVERALL PATTERN, WITH AN ARRIVAL IN
THE DELAWARE VALLEY BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z, AND AT THE COASTAL SITES BY
06Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW SITES CONTINUE TO SHOW WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5 FT, SO WILL KEEP
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 6AM, BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY EXTENSIONS AT THIS TIME. THIS AFTERNOON, A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. A WIND SHIFT WITH A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 280731
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
331 AM EDT THU MAY 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
COLD FRONT WILL BEGIN CROSSING OUR REGION TODAY. INTERESTINGLY, MOST
MODELS AGREE THAT THE FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR WESTERN
SECTIONS BY 18Z OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER DESPITE LARGE DIFFERENCES IN
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FOR OUR EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS (MORE ON THAT
IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION). COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS THIS MORNING AS
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET PROPAGATES CLOSER TO
THE REGION. HOWEVER, THE MAIN FOCUS FOR ANY STORMS, AND THUS HIGHEST
POPS, LOOK TO BE AFTER 18Z IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. ONE CHANGE
FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS THAT IT NOW LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE REGION WHICH
WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. MEANWHILE IN
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA, AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE LOOKS TO BUILD IN
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON, AND WHILE ANY ASSOCIATED SUBSIDENCE MAY NOT
BE ENOUGH TO COMPLETELY SUPPRESS CONVECTIVE INITIATION IN THIS AREA,
IT SHOULD BE A FACTOR IN LIMITING STORM COVERAGE.

AS FOR HAZARDS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS, PRIMARILY
ACROSS NW NJ AS 0-6KM SHEAR VALUES COULD BE NEAR 40 KT (PRIMARILY
SPEED SHEAR) WITH MODEST (LESS THAN 500 J/KG CAPE) INSTABILITY. WILL
MENTION POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS IN THIS AREA IN THE HWO. SHEAR
VALUES, AND THUS STRONG STORM THREAT, DROPS OFF QUICKLY AS YOU GO
FURTHER SOUTH THANKS AGAIN TO THE HIGH BUILDING IN. WITH THIS HIGH,
ANY STORM MOTIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE REGION SHOULD BE
QUITE SLOW (15 KT OR LESS), BUT OTHER CONTRIBUTING FACTORS FOR A
HEAVY RAIN THREAT ARE LIMITED, SO WILL HOLD OFF ON MENTIONING ANY
HEAVY RAIN IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
AS MENTIONED EARLIER, THERE ARE SOME BIG DIFFERENCES AMONG MODELS
FOR THE TIMING OF THE FRONT FROM DELAWARE VALLEY AND POINTS FURTHER
EAST. SOME MODELS, MOST NOTABLY THE NAM, BRING THE FRONT IN QUICKLY
TO THE WESTERN ZONES, BUT THEN DON/T SHOW THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
THE EASTERN COASTAL PLAINS UNTIL NEAR OR AFTER 06Z. THIS DOESN/T
SEEM REALISTIC EVEN WITH THE HIGH BUILDING IN. THE LOW ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD BE QUICKLY PROPAGATING EAST THROUGH THIS
TIME, SO SEE LITTLE REASON THAT THE FRONT WILL STALL. THUS FORECAST
FAVORS A FASTER SOLUTION, HAVING THE FRONT MOVE OFF SHORE AROUND
06Z. REGARDLESS OF THE FRONTAL TIMING, LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND
THE RIDGE BUILDING IN SHOULD LEAD TO CHANCES FOR STORMS DECREASING
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS, AND WOULD EXPECT MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE
AREA TO BE DRY BY MIDNIGHT.

THE ONE AREA WHERE THE TIMING DIFFERENCES COULD HAVE CONSIDERABLE
IMPACT WILL BE WITH LOW TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT. FOR NOW HAVE GONE
WITH A BLEND OF THE FASTER SOLUTIONS (CMC, GFS, AND ECMWF), BUT WITH
DRIER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE FRONT, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONSIDERABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING IF THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH FASTER
THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC
ON FRIDAY, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN EDGE, WHILE THE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS TO OUR EAST AS WELL. THIS SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY
DRY INTO FRIDAY. HOWEVER, WITH RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA,
INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE THE AREA, ESPECIALLY
FOR WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH ANY VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE.

THE SURFACE HIGH AND RIDGING ALOFT PUSH EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY,
WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW AT THE SURFACE ALOFT DEVELOPING. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SATURDAY WHILE DAYTIME INSTABILITY DEVELOPS AS WELL. AN
INCREASE IN SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR
THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. THE LATEST GFS AND ECMWF HAVE PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIPITATION. BOTH AGREE THAT SUNDAY LOOKS
TO BE THE PERIOD WITH HIGHEST PROBABILITY FOR PRECIPITATION AS THE
FRONT MOVES ACROSS AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. PW VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR
2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH ANY
SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD. THERE REMAINS
INSTABILITY FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SO WE WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, BUT ONCE THE FRONT PASSES,
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DECREASES.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. WITH THE HIGH TO OUR NORTHEAST, THIS WILL KEEP EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. SOUTHWEST-WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS
THE AREA AS WELL. SEVERAL SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL LIKELY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH COULD HELP CREATE
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA, THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BE STABLE, SO WE HAVE REMOVED
THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY DUE TO LACK OF
INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY FG/BR WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AT KRDG AND KABE THROUGH 12Z. FOR
THE DELAWARE VALLEY AND COASTAL SITES (KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KMIV, KACY
AND KILG), EXPECT BRIEF INTERMITTENT IMPACTS (PRIMARILY MVFR EXCEPT
AT KTTN) THROUGH THIS TIME AS WELL. AFTER SUNRISE, WINDS SHOULD
SETTLE IN OUT OF THE SW. THERE MAY BE ISOLATED SHRA BETWEEN 12 AND
15Z, BUT COVERAGE WILL BE TOO LIMITED TO MENTION IN THE TAFS.

A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE REGION AROUND 18Z. JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, COULD SEE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS,
THOUGH HIGHER CHANCES LOOK TO STAY NORTH OF THE TAF SITES, WILL BE
KEEPING A CLOSE EYE ON THIS THROUGH THE DAY THOUGH. AS FOR THE EXACT
TIMING OF THE FRONT, AND THUS A SHIFT TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS,
RELATIVELY HIGH CONFIDENCE OF IT ARRIVING AT KRDG AND KABE BY 21Z.
CONSIDERABLY LESS CONFIDENCE FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES. HAVE CHOSEN TO
GO WITH A FASTER SOLUTION THAN WHAT THE NAM OR GFS LAMP ARE SHOWING
GIVEN A RELATIVELY PROGRESSIVE OVERALL PATTERN, WITH AN ARRIVAL IN
THE DELAWARE VALLEY BETWEEN 00 AND 03Z, AND AT THE COASTAL SITES BY
06Z.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS WITH
STRATUS/FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-MONDAY...AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A CHANCE OF RAIN EACH DAY. BEST POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IS SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW SITES CONTINUE TO SHOW WAVE HEIGHTS NEAR 5 FT, SO WILL KEEP
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY GOING THROUGH 6AM, BUT DO NOT ANTICIPATE
ANY EXTENSIONS AT THIS TIME. THIS AFTERNOON, A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR
JUST ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS, BUT
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA. A WIND SHIFT WITH A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY-FRIDAY NIGHT...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY-MONDAY...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER LATE ON
SATURDAY AHEAD AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS MAY REMAIN
ELEVATED INTO MONDAY, AND WINDS MAY INCREASE TO 25 KNOTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 280139
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION UNDER A
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE DEW
POINTS HAVE FALLEN SOME DUE TO THE MARINE INFLUENCE. THE LEVEL OF
MOISTURE PRESENT COMBINED WITH SOME LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM FOR AWHILE
TONIGHT. THE BUOYANCY OF THE AIRMASS IS GOOD GIVEN THE MOISTURE,
THEREFORE IT MAY JUST TAKE A LITTLE BIT OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
POP A SHOWER. THE INSTABILITY IS LESS THEREFORE MOST SHOULD BE
MAINLY SHOWERS. AS A RESULT, WE MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS FOR MANY
AREAS FOR AWHILE.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND
THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED. WE SHOULD SEE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE MORE NOTABLE RAIN OCCURRED, HOWEVER WE HAVE
LOWER CONFIDENCE ATTM WHETHER THIS WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT AND
THEREFORE IT WAS NOT ADDED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAYTIME THURSDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING
AND GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY, AND WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT ACTING
AS LIFTING MECHANISMS, MORE SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS ANTICIPATED. WE BEGIN POPS A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE DAY, DURING
THE MORNING, FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS, THOUGH, ARE
FOCUSED INTO THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE DECREASING THEN INTO THE EVENING
AS THE FRONT PASSES BY TO THE EAST. MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLENDED WITH
CONTINUITY YIELDS HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND COULD HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH IT. THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN EARLY IN THE PD.

ON FRI, HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION, AND DRY CONDS ARE
EXPECTED.

LOW PRES THEN ADVANCES ACRS QUEBEC ON SAT AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE W ON SAT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE
FRONT, AND HAS SOME PRECIP, MAINLY N. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LOW POPS. THE GFS HAS CFP SAT NIGHT, WITH THE
ECMWF ON SUN. SHWRS/TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY FROPA, BUT THERE STILL
REMAIN QUESTIONS AS TO THE TIMING.

THE FRONT THEN STALLS TO THE S OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER QUEBEC. YESTERDAY, THE MDLS HAD DRIED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NOW, THEY ARE MAKING IT WETTER. AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE
MDLS TRY TO IRON THINGS OUT. LOWERED POPS A BIT YESTERDAY, AND
RAISED THEM A BIT TODAY, BUT DON`T WANT TO MAKE ANY WHOLESALE
CHANGES. ALSO, SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO AREAL EXTENT AND
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP.

BY TUE, THE LOW MOVE NEWD OUT TO SEA AND PRECIP CHCS EITHER MOVE
NWD (GFS) OR DECREASE (ECMWF).

THE FCST IS CONTINGENT ON THE STALLED FRONT AND WHERE IT STALLS,
WHETHER IT WASHES OUT AND IF ANY WAVES DEVELOP UPON IT. THE MDLS
ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE FCST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
AS A RESULT, THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FCST IS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PRECIP BEYOND SUN, BUT WHERE, WHEN, AND
TO WHAT EXTENT REMAIN BIG QUESTIONS.

TEMPS LOOK TO START ABV NRML BUT CUD BE BELOW NRML ERLY NEXT WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM FOR AWHILE, HOWEVER THE COVERAGE IS RATHER SMALL TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
TOWARD MORNING, THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH A 1000-1500 FOOT CEILING.
SOME FOG SHOULD DEVELOP, ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MORE LIKELY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRED. SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID MORNING,
THEN VFR. WHILE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY /WHICH MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES/, THE TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF THESE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA EARLY. MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRI NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT...IFR/MVFR PSBL EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA PSBL WHICH MAY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE ON
TSRA.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH
SHRA/TSRA. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT, SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED,
ALONG WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. WE THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH 10Z THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, WHILE SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS MAY STILL OCCUR FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND
20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SAT NIGHT...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT.

SUN...SCA CONDS LIKELY WITH CFP.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE/KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 280139
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO ADVECT INTO THE REGION UNDER A
SOUTHERLY FLOW. THE EXCEPTION IS ALONG THE COAST WHERE THE DEW
POINTS HAVE FALLEN SOME DUE TO THE MARINE INFLUENCE. THE LEVEL OF
MOISTURE PRESENT COMBINED WITH SOME LEFTOVER BOUNDARIES SHOULD
CONTINUE TO PRODUCE A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN A THUNDERSTORM FOR AWHILE
TONIGHT. THE BUOYANCY OF THE AIRMASS IS GOOD GIVEN THE MOISTURE,
THEREFORE IT MAY JUST TAKE A LITTLE BIT OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE TO
POP A SHOWER. THE INSTABILITY IS LESS THEREFORE MOST SHOULD BE
MAINLY SHOWERS. AS A RESULT, WE MAINTAINED SOME LOW POPS FOR MANY
AREAS FOR AWHILE.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND
THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED. WE SHOULD SEE PATCHY FOG
DEVELOP ESPECIALLY WHERE MORE NOTABLE RAIN OCCURRED, HOWEVER WE HAVE
LOWER CONFIDENCE ATTM WHETHER THIS WILL HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT AND
THEREFORE IT WAS NOT ADDED ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAYTIME THURSDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING
AND GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY, AND WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT ACTING
AS LIFTING MECHANISMS, MORE SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS ANTICIPATED. WE BEGIN POPS A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE DAY, DURING
THE MORNING, FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS, THOUGH, ARE
FOCUSED INTO THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE DECREASING THEN INTO THE EVENING
AS THE FRONT PASSES BY TO THE EAST. MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLENDED WITH
CONTINUITY YIELDS HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND COULD HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH IT. THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN EARLY IN THE PD.

ON FRI, HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION, AND DRY CONDS ARE
EXPECTED.

LOW PRES THEN ADVANCES ACRS QUEBEC ON SAT AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE W ON SAT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE
FRONT, AND HAS SOME PRECIP, MAINLY N. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LOW POPS. THE GFS HAS CFP SAT NIGHT, WITH THE
ECMWF ON SUN. SHWRS/TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY FROPA, BUT THERE STILL
REMAIN QUESTIONS AS TO THE TIMING.

THE FRONT THEN STALLS TO THE S OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER QUEBEC. YESTERDAY, THE MDLS HAD DRIED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NOW, THEY ARE MAKING IT WETTER. AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE
MDLS TRY TO IRON THINGS OUT. LOWERED POPS A BIT YESTERDAY, AND
RAISED THEM A BIT TODAY, BUT DON`T WANT TO MAKE ANY WHOLESALE
CHANGES. ALSO, SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO AREAL EXTENT AND
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP.

BY TUE, THE LOW MOVE NEWD OUT TO SEA AND PRECIP CHCS EITHER MOVE
NWD (GFS) OR DECREASE (ECMWF).

THE FCST IS CONTINGENT ON THE STALLED FRONT AND WHERE IT STALLS,
WHETHER IT WASHES OUT AND IF ANY WAVES DEVELOP UPON IT. THE MDLS
ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE FCST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
AS A RESULT, THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FCST IS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PRECIP BEYOND SUN, BUT WHERE, WHEN, AND
TO WHAT EXTENT REMAIN BIG QUESTIONS.

TEMPS LOOK TO START ABV NRML BUT CUD BE BELOW NRML ERLY NEXT WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. AN ISOLATED SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM FOR AWHILE, HOWEVER THE COVERAGE IS RATHER SMALL TO
INCLUDE IN THE TAF. SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP
TOWARD MORNING, THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH A 1000-1500 FOOT CEILING.
SOME FOG SHOULD DEVELOP, ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MORE LIKELY WHERE THE
HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRED. SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

THURSDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID MORNING,
THEN VFR. WHILE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY /WHICH MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES/, THE TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF THESE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA EARLY. MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRI NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT...IFR/MVFR PSBL EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA PSBL WHICH MAY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE ON
TSRA.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH
SHRA/TSRA. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH TONIGHT, SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED,
ALONG WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 3 TO 5 FOOT RANGE FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS. WE THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE CURRENT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
THROUGH 10Z THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, WHILE SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS MAY STILL OCCUR FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, MAINLY SUB-SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND FOR
DELAWARE BAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND
20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SAT NIGHT...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT.

SUN...SCA CONDS LIKELY WITH CFP.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE/KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 272341
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
741 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 23Z.

A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES, AS OF 2330Z, ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES AND THIS TRAILS DOWN TO THE DELMARVA. THIS APPEARS TO
BE FOCUSED ON AN EARLIER GUST FRONT. WE ARE ANTICIPATING THIS TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD AND IT MAY WEAKEN SOME AS MORE STABLE AIR IS
LOCATED CLOSER TO THE COAST. WE MAY THEN BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN AT
LEAST SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS AS
A WEAK IMPULSE MAY ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES ATTM. THE HOURLY GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND THEN THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED. THIS INCLUDED ADJUSTMENTS FOR CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCES WHICH CAUSED A MUCH FASTER TEMPERATURE DROP IN MANY
AREAS. DUE TO THE AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN OCCURRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAYTIME THURSDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING
AND GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY, AND WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT ACTING
AS LIFTING MECHANISMS, MORE SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS ANTICIPATED. WE BEGIN POPS A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE DAY, DURING
THE MORNING, FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS, THOUGH, ARE
FOCUSED INTO THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE DECREASING THEN INTO THE EVENING
AS THE FRONT PASSES BY TO THE EAST. MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLENDED WITH
CONTINUITY YIELDS HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND COULD HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH IT. THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN EARLY IN THE PD.

ON FRI, HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION, AND DRY CONDS ARE
EXPECTED.

LOW PRES THEN ADVANCES ACRS QUEBEC ON SAT AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE W ON SAT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE
FRONT, AND HAS SOME PRECIP, MAINLY N. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LOW POPS. THE GFS HAS CFP SAT NIGHT, WITH THE
ECMWF ON SUN. SHWRS/TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY FROPA, BUT THERE STILL
REMAIN QUESTIONS AS TO THE TIMING.

THE FRONT THEN STALLS TO THE S OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER QUEBEC. YESTERDAY, THE MDLS HAD DRIED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NOW, THEY ARE MAKING IT WETTER. AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE
MDLS TRY TO IRON THINGS OUT. LOWERED POPS A BIT YESTERDAY, AND
RAISED THEM A BIT TODAY, BUT DON`T WANT TO MAKE ANY WHOLESALE
CHANGES. ALSO, SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO AREAL EXTENT AND
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP.

BY TUE, THE LOW MOVE NEWD OUT TO SEA AND PRECIP CHCS EITHER MOVE
NWD (GFS) OR DECREASE (ECMWF).

THE FCST IS CONTINGENT ON THE STALLED FRONT AND WHERE IT STALLS,
WHETHER IT WASHES OUT AND IF ANY WAVES DEVELOP UPON IT. THE MDLS
ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE FCST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
AS A RESULT, THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FCST IS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PRECIP BEYOND SUN, BUT WHERE, WHEN, AND
TO WHAT EXTENT REMAIN BIG QUESTIONS.

TEMPS LOOK TO START ABV NRML BUT CUD BE BELOW NRML ERLY NEXT WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THIS ONLY MOSTLY NEAR KMIV AND KACY.
SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING, THEREFORE
CONTINUED WITH A 1000-1500 FOOT CEILING. SOME FOG SHOULD DEVELOP,
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MORE LIKELY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRED.
SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING
GUSTINESS THIS EVENING MAINLY AT KACY.

THURSDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID MORNING,
THEN VFR. WHILE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY /WHICH MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES/, THE TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF THESE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA EARLY. MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRI NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT...IFR/MVFR PSBL EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA PSBL WHICH MAY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE ON
TSRA.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH
SHRA/TSRA. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED, ALONG WITH SOME WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING THE 4 TO 5
FOOT RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. WE THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 10Z THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, WHILE SOME
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS MAY STILL OCCUR FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS, MAINLY SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS AND FOR DELAWARE BAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND
20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SAT NIGHT...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT.

SUN...SCA CONDS LIKELY WITH CFP.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OFFICE GUIDANCE, WE CONTINUE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE NJ BEACHES UNDER A BREEZY
SOUTH WIND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE/KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 272341
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
741 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 23Z.

A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES, AS OF 2330Z, ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES AND THIS TRAILS DOWN TO THE DELMARVA. THIS APPEARS TO
BE FOCUSED ON AN EARLIER GUST FRONT. WE ARE ANTICIPATING THIS TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD AND IT MAY WEAKEN SOME AS MORE STABLE AIR IS
LOCATED CLOSER TO THE COAST. WE MAY THEN BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN AT
LEAST SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS AS
A WEAK IMPULSE MAY ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES ATTM. THE HOURLY GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND THEN THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED. THIS INCLUDED ADJUSTMENTS FOR CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCES WHICH CAUSED A MUCH FASTER TEMPERATURE DROP IN MANY
AREAS. DUE TO THE AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN OCCURRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAYTIME THURSDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING
AND GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY, AND WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT ACTING
AS LIFTING MECHANISMS, MORE SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS ANTICIPATED. WE BEGIN POPS A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE DAY, DURING
THE MORNING, FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS, THOUGH, ARE
FOCUSED INTO THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE DECREASING THEN INTO THE EVENING
AS THE FRONT PASSES BY TO THE EAST. MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLENDED WITH
CONTINUITY YIELDS HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND COULD HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH IT. THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN EARLY IN THE PD.

ON FRI, HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION, AND DRY CONDS ARE
EXPECTED.

LOW PRES THEN ADVANCES ACRS QUEBEC ON SAT AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE W ON SAT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE
FRONT, AND HAS SOME PRECIP, MAINLY N. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LOW POPS. THE GFS HAS CFP SAT NIGHT, WITH THE
ECMWF ON SUN. SHWRS/TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY FROPA, BUT THERE STILL
REMAIN QUESTIONS AS TO THE TIMING.

THE FRONT THEN STALLS TO THE S OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER QUEBEC. YESTERDAY, THE MDLS HAD DRIED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NOW, THEY ARE MAKING IT WETTER. AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE
MDLS TRY TO IRON THINGS OUT. LOWERED POPS A BIT YESTERDAY, AND
RAISED THEM A BIT TODAY, BUT DON`T WANT TO MAKE ANY WHOLESALE
CHANGES. ALSO, SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO AREAL EXTENT AND
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP.

BY TUE, THE LOW MOVE NEWD OUT TO SEA AND PRECIP CHCS EITHER MOVE
NWD (GFS) OR DECREASE (ECMWF).

THE FCST IS CONTINGENT ON THE STALLED FRONT AND WHERE IT STALLS,
WHETHER IT WASHES OUT AND IF ANY WAVES DEVELOP UPON IT. THE MDLS
ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE FCST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
AS A RESULT, THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FCST IS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PRECIP BEYOND SUN, BUT WHERE, WHEN, AND
TO WHAT EXTENT REMAIN BIG QUESTIONS.

TEMPS LOOK TO START ABV NRML BUT CUD BE BELOW NRML ERLY NEXT WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THIS ONLY MOSTLY NEAR KMIV AND KACY.
SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING, THEREFORE
CONTINUED WITH A 1000-1500 FOOT CEILING. SOME FOG SHOULD DEVELOP,
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MORE LIKELY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRED.
SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING
GUSTINESS THIS EVENING MAINLY AT KACY.

THURSDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID MORNING,
THEN VFR. WHILE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY /WHICH MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES/, THE TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF THESE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA EARLY. MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRI NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT...IFR/MVFR PSBL EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA PSBL WHICH MAY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE ON
TSRA.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH
SHRA/TSRA. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED, ALONG WITH SOME WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING THE 4 TO 5
FOOT RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. WE THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 10Z THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, WHILE SOME
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS MAY STILL OCCUR FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS, MAINLY SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS AND FOR DELAWARE BAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND
20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SAT NIGHT...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT.

SUN...SCA CONDS LIKELY WITH CFP.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OFFICE GUIDANCE, WE CONTINUE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE NJ BEACHES UNDER A BREEZY
SOUTH WIND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE/KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 272341
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
741 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WAS ALLOWED
TO EXPIRE AT 23Z.

A BROKEN BAND OF CONVECTION CONTINUES, AS OF 2330Z, ACROSS THE
EASTERN ZONES AND THIS TRAILS DOWN TO THE DELMARVA. THIS APPEARS TO
BE FOCUSED ON AN EARLIER GUST FRONT. WE ARE ANTICIPATING THIS TO
CONTINUE EASTWARD AND IT MAY WEAKEN SOME AS MORE STABLE AIR IS
LOCATED CLOSER TO THE COAST. WE MAY THEN BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN AT
LEAST SOME SHOWERS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AREAS AS
A WEAK IMPULSE MAY ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

NO CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE LOW TEMPERATURES ATTM. THE HOURLY GRIDS
WERE ADJUSTED BASED ON THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND THEN THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS USED. THIS INCLUDED ADJUSTMENTS FOR CONVECTIVE
INFLUENCES WHICH CAUSED A MUCH FASTER TEMPERATURE DROP IN MANY
AREAS. DUE TO THE AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE ACROSS THE REGION, SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY WHERE THE HEAVIER RAIN OCCURRED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAYTIME THURSDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING
AND GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY, AND WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT ACTING
AS LIFTING MECHANISMS, MORE SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS ANTICIPATED. WE BEGIN POPS A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE DAY, DURING
THE MORNING, FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS, THOUGH, ARE
FOCUSED INTO THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE DECREASING THEN INTO THE EVENING
AS THE FRONT PASSES BY TO THE EAST. MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLENDED WITH
CONTINUITY YIELDS HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND COULD HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH IT. THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN EARLY IN THE PD.

ON FRI, HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION, AND DRY CONDS ARE
EXPECTED.

LOW PRES THEN ADVANCES ACRS QUEBEC ON SAT AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE W ON SAT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE
FRONT, AND HAS SOME PRECIP, MAINLY N. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LOW POPS. THE GFS HAS CFP SAT NIGHT, WITH THE
ECMWF ON SUN. SHWRS/TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY FROPA, BUT THERE STILL
REMAIN QUESTIONS AS TO THE TIMING.

THE FRONT THEN STALLS TO THE S OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER QUEBEC. YESTERDAY, THE MDLS HAD DRIED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NOW, THEY ARE MAKING IT WETTER. AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE
MDLS TRY TO IRON THINGS OUT. LOWERED POPS A BIT YESTERDAY, AND
RAISED THEM A BIT TODAY, BUT DON`T WANT TO MAKE ANY WHOLESALE
CHANGES. ALSO, SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO AREAL EXTENT AND
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP.

BY TUE, THE LOW MOVE NEWD OUT TO SEA AND PRECIP CHCS EITHER MOVE
NWD (GFS) OR DECREASE (ECMWF).

THE FCST IS CONTINGENT ON THE STALLED FRONT AND WHERE IT STALLS,
WHETHER IT WASHES OUT AND IF ANY WAVES DEVELOP UPON IT. THE MDLS
ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE FCST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
AS A RESULT, THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FCST IS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PRECIP BEYOND SUN, BUT WHERE, WHEN, AND
TO WHAT EXTENT REMAIN BIG QUESTIONS.

TEMPS LOOK TO START ABV NRML BUT CUD BE BELOW NRML ERLY NEXT WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION IS LINGERING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THIS ONLY MOSTLY NEAR KMIV AND KACY.
SOME LOW CLOUDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP TOWARD MORNING, THEREFORE
CONTINUED WITH A 1000-1500 FOOT CEILING. SOME FOG SHOULD DEVELOP,
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE MORE LIKELY WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAIN OCCURRED.
SOUTHERLY WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS, ALTHOUGH SOME LINGERING
GUSTINESS THIS EVENING MAINLY AT KACY.

THURSDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT BY MID MORNING,
THEN VFR. WHILE SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE
DAY /WHICH MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES/, THE TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF THESE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA EARLY. MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRI NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT...IFR/MVFR PSBL EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA PSBL WHICH MAY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE ON
TSRA.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH
SHRA/TSRA. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED, ALONG WITH SOME WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING THE 4 TO 5
FOOT RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. WE THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 10Z THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, WHILE SOME
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS MAY STILL OCCUR FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS, MAINLY SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS AND FOR DELAWARE BAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND
20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SAT NIGHT...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT.

SUN...SCA CONDS LIKELY WITH CFP.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OFFICE GUIDANCE, WE CONTINUE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE NJ BEACHES UNDER A BREEZY
SOUTH WIND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GORSE/KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 272156
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
556 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
5:50 PM UPDATE...CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. THIS IS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CONVECTION AND ALSO
THE DELMARVA. MUCH OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES WERE ALSO DROPPED FROM
THE WATCH DUE TO THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE FROM THE OCEAN.

OTHERWISE, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE EAST COAST AT
LATE-DAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NEAR OUR
REGION AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. MEANWHILE TO OUR WEST, AN
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTEND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST STATES. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A LEAD UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO OUR REGION AS WELL AS A WEAK LEE-SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TO OUR WEST, HELPING TO
CONTRIBUTE SOME ATMOSPHERIC LIFT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. LAPS
DATA SHOWED THAT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURRED, WITH
SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES RANGING MOSTLY BETWEEN 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST. IN
ADDITION, MODEST SHEAR EXISTS ALONG WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE,
WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND EVEN LOW 70S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A BROKEN LINE OF
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GRADUALLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF LATE-DAY AND
INTO THIS EVENING. ALONG WITH DOWNPOURS, THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY
STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE GUSTY TO LOCALLY DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.

A WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED, AND WE USED A BLEND OF
MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AND
WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION, SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAYTIME THURSDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING
AND GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY, AND WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT ACTING
AS LIFTING MECHANISMS, MORE SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS ANTICIPATED. WE BEGIN POPS A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE DAY, DURING
THE MORNING, FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS, THOUGH, ARE
FOCUSED INTO THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE DECREASING THEN INTO THE EVENING
AS THE FRONT PASSES BY TO THE EAST. MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLENDED WITH
CONTINUITY YIELDS HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND COULD HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH IT. THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN EARLY IN THE PD.

ON FRI, HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION, AND DRY CONDS ARE
EXPECTED.

LOW PRES THEN ADVANCES ACRS QUEBEC ON SAT AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE W ON SAT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE
FRONT, AND HAS SOME PRECIP, MAINLY N. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LOW POPS. THE GFS HAS CFP SAT NIGHT, WITH THE
ECMWF ON SUN. SHWRS/TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY FROPA, BUT THERE STILL
REMAIN QUESTIONS AS TO THE TIMING.

THE FRONT THEN STALLS TO THE S OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER QUEBEC. YESTERDAY, THE MDLS HAD DRIED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NOW, THEY ARE MAKING IT WETTER. AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE
MDLS TRY TO IRON THINGS OUT. LOWERED POPS A BIT YESTERDAY, AND
RAISED THEM A BIT TODAY, BUT DON`T WANT TO MAKE ANY WHOLESALE
CHANGES. ALSO, SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO AREAL EXTENT AND
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP.

BY TUE, THE LOW MOVE NEWD OUT TO SEA AND PRECIP CHCS EITHER MOVE
NWD (GFS) OR DECREASE (ECMWF).

THE FCST IS CONTINGENT ON THE STALLED FRONT AND WHERE IT STALLS,
WHETHER IT WASHES OUT AND IF ANY WAVES DEVELOP UPON IT. THE MDLS
ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE FCST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
AS A RESULT, THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FCST IS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PRECIP BEYOND SUN, BUT WHERE, WHEN, AND
TO WHAT EXTENT REMAIN BIG QUESTIONS.

TEMPS LOOK TO START ABV NRML BUT CUD BE BELOW NRML ERLY NEXT WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERALL, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE-DAY AND THIS
EVENING, EXCEPT A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SCATTERED
SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY. WE HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF THIS IN THE
TAFS AS A TEMPO GROUP, 22Z TO 01Z TIMEFRAME IN AND AROUND THE I-
95 CORRIDOR. THEREAFTER, WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, WE
EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY TO WANE AND DISSIPATE AS
IT APPROACHES THE COASTAL PLAIN, AND WITH STORMS UNLIKELY TO REACH
KACY THIS EVENING, NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONG WINDS IN TSTORMS, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MOSTLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...ONCE SHWRS DISSIPATE AND END, AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, AND GUIDANCE INDICATES MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. THIS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS, STARTING AROUND THE 08Z/09Z
TIMEFRAME. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

THURSDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD LIFT, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
BACK TO VFR BY MID-MORNING. WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS, TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF THESE WAS TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA EARLY. MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRI NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT...IFR/MVFR PSBL EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA PSBL WHICH MAY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE ON
TSRA.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH
SHRA/TSRA. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED, ALONG WITH SOME WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING THE 4 TO 5
FOOT RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. WE THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 10Z THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, WHILE SOME
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS MAY STILL OCCUR FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS, MAINLY SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS AND FOR DELAWARE BAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND
20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SAT NIGHT...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT.

SUN...SCA CONDS LIKELY WITH CFP.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OFFICE GUIDANCE, WE CONTINUE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE NJ BEACHES UNDER A BREEZY
SOUTH WIND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 272156
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
556 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
5:50 PM UPDATE...CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. THIS IS FOR AREAS WEST OF THE CONVECTION AND ALSO
THE DELMARVA. MUCH OF THE COASTAL COUNTIES WERE ALSO DROPPED FROM
THE WATCH DUE TO THE STABILIZING INFLUENCE FROM THE OCEAN.

OTHERWISE, AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE EAST COAST AT
LATE-DAY, WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NEAR OUR
REGION AND OUT OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. MEANWHILE TO OUR WEST, AN
UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTEND OVER THE
GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST STATES. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A LEAD UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING INTO OUR REGION AS WELL AS A WEAK LEE-SIDE
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TO OUR WEST, HELPING TO
CONTRIBUTE SOME ATMOSPHERIC LIFT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. LAPS
DATA SHOWED THAT SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION OCCURRED, WITH
SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES RANGING MOSTLY BETWEEN 1000 TO 1500 J/KG
ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA, EXCEPT ALONG THE COAST. IN
ADDITION, MODEST SHEAR EXISTS ALONG WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE,
WITH DEW POINTS INTO THE UPPER 60S AND EVEN LOW 70S ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA.

WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A BROKEN LINE OF
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GRADUALLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF LATE-DAY AND
INTO THIS EVENING. ALONG WITH DOWNPOURS, THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY
STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE GUSTY TO LOCALLY DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS.

A WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED, AND WE USED A BLEND OF
MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AND
WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION, SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAYTIME THURSDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING
AND GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY, AND WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT ACTING
AS LIFTING MECHANISMS, MORE SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS ANTICIPATED. WE BEGIN POPS A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE DAY, DURING
THE MORNING, FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS, THOUGH, ARE
FOCUSED INTO THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE DECREASING THEN INTO THE EVENING
AS THE FRONT PASSES BY TO THE EAST. MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLENDED WITH
CONTINUITY YIELDS HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND COULD HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH IT. THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN EARLY IN THE PD.

ON FRI, HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION, AND DRY CONDS ARE
EXPECTED.

LOW PRES THEN ADVANCES ACRS QUEBEC ON SAT AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE W ON SAT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE
FRONT, AND HAS SOME PRECIP, MAINLY N. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LOW POPS. THE GFS HAS CFP SAT NIGHT, WITH THE
ECMWF ON SUN. SHWRS/TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY FROPA, BUT THERE STILL
REMAIN QUESTIONS AS TO THE TIMING.

THE FRONT THEN STALLS TO THE S OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER QUEBEC. YESTERDAY, THE MDLS HAD DRIED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NOW, THEY ARE MAKING IT WETTER. AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE
MDLS TRY TO IRON THINGS OUT. LOWERED POPS A BIT YESTERDAY, AND
RAISED THEM A BIT TODAY, BUT DON`T WANT TO MAKE ANY WHOLESALE
CHANGES. ALSO, SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO AREAL EXTENT AND
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP.

BY TUE, THE LOW MOVE NEWD OUT TO SEA AND PRECIP CHCS EITHER MOVE
NWD (GFS) OR DECREASE (ECMWF).

THE FCST IS CONTINGENT ON THE STALLED FRONT AND WHERE IT STALLS,
WHETHER IT WASHES OUT AND IF ANY WAVES DEVELOP UPON IT. THE MDLS
ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE FCST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
AS A RESULT, THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FCST IS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PRECIP BEYOND SUN, BUT WHERE, WHEN, AND
TO WHAT EXTENT REMAIN BIG QUESTIONS.

TEMPS LOOK TO START ABV NRML BUT CUD BE BELOW NRML ERLY NEXT WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERALL, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE-DAY AND THIS
EVENING, EXCEPT A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SCATTERED
SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY. WE HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF THIS IN THE
TAFS AS A TEMPO GROUP, 22Z TO 01Z TIMEFRAME IN AND AROUND THE I-
95 CORRIDOR. THEREAFTER, WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, WE
EXPECT ANY LEFTOVER SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY TO WANE AND DISSIPATE AS
IT APPROACHES THE COASTAL PLAIN, AND WITH STORMS UNLIKELY TO REACH
KACY THIS EVENING, NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONG WINDS IN TSTORMS, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MOSTLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...ONCE SHWRS DISSIPATE AND END, AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, AND GUIDANCE INDICATES MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. THIS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS, STARTING AROUND THE 08Z/09Z
TIMEFRAME. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

THURSDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD LIFT, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
BACK TO VFR BY MID-MORNING. WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS, TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF THESE WAS TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA EARLY. MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRI NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT...IFR/MVFR PSBL EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA PSBL WHICH MAY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE ON
TSRA.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH
SHRA/TSRA. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED, ALONG WITH SOME WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING THE 4 TO 5
FOOT RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. WE THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 10Z THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, WHILE SOME
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS MAY STILL OCCUR FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS, MAINLY SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS AND FOR DELAWARE BAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
THU-SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND
20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SAT NIGHT...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT.

SUN...SCA CONDS LIKELY WITH CFP.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OFFICE GUIDANCE, WE CONTINUE A MODERATE RISK OF RIP
CURRENTS THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE NJ BEACHES UNDER A BREEZY
SOUTH WIND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...GORSE/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 272008
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE EAST COAST AT LATE-DAY,
WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NEAR OUR REGION AND OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. MEANWHILE TO OUR WEST, AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTEND OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST
STATES. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO OUR REGION AS WELL AS A WEAK LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS TO OUR WEST, HELPING TO CONTRIBUTE SOME ATMOSPHERIC
LIFT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. LAPS DATA SHOWS THAT SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED, WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES RANGING
MOSTLY BETWEEN 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA,
EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IN ADDITION, MODEST SHEAR
EXISTS ALONG WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND EVEN LOW 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A BROKEN LINE OF
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GRADUALLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF LATE-DAY AND
INTO THIS EVENING. ALONG WITH DOWNPOURS, THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY
STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE GUSTY TO LOCALLY DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. WE CARRY LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE POPS TO THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH POPS FARTHER EAST
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING INTO MID EVENING.

A WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED, AND WE USED A BLEND OF
MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AND
WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION, SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAYTIME THURSDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING
AND GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY, AND WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT ACTING
AS LIFTING MECHANISMS, MORE SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS ANTICIPATED. WE BEGIN POPS A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE DAY, DURING
THE MORNING, FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS, THOUGH, ARE
FOCUSED INTO THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE DECREASING THEN INTO THE EVENING
AS THE FRONT PASSES BY TO THE EAST. MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLENDED WITH
CONTINUITY YIELDS HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND COULD HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH IT. THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN EARLY IN THE PD.

ON FRI, HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION, AND DRY CONDS ARE
EXPECTED.

LOW PRES THEN ADVANCES ACRS QUEBEC ON SAT AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE W ON SAT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE
FRONT, AND HAS SOME PRECIP, MAINLY N. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LOW POPS. THE GFS HAS CFP SAT NIGHT, WITH THE
ECMWF ON SUN. SHWRS/TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY FROPA, BUT THERE STILL
REMAIN QUESTIONS AS TO THE TIMING.

THE FRONT THEN STALLS TO THE S OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER QUEBEC. YESTERDAY, THE MDLS HAD DRIED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NOW, THEY ARE MAKING IT WETTER. AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE
MDLS TRY TO IRON THINGS OUT. LOWERED POPS A BIT YESTERDAY, AND
RAISED THEM A BIT TODAY, BUT DON`T WANT TO MAKE ANY WHOLESALE
CHANGES. ALSO, SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO AREAL EXTENT AND
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP.

BY TUE, THE LOW MOVE NEWD OUT TO SEA AND PRECIP CHCS EITHER MOVE
NWD (GFS) OR DECREASE (ECMWF).

THE FCST IS CONTINGENT ON THE STALLED FRONT AND WHERE IT STALLS,
WHETHER IT WASHES OUT AND IF ANY WAVES DEVELOP UPON IT. THE MDLS
ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE FCST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
AS A RESULT, THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FCST IS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PRECIP BEYOND SUN, BUT WHERE, WHEN, AND
TO WHAT EXTENT REMAIN BIG QUESTIONS.

TEMPS LOOK TO START ABV NRML BUT CUD BE BELOW NRML ERLY NEXT WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERALL, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE-DAY AND THIS
EVENING, EXCEPT A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SCATTERED
SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY. WE HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF THIS IN THE
TAFS AS A TEMPO GROUP, WITH THE 19Z TO 21Z TIMEFRAME EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF EASTERN PA AND THE 22Z TO 01Z TIMEFRAME IN AND AROUND THE I-
95 CORRIDOR. THEREAFTER, WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, WE EXPECT
ANY LEFTOVER SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY TO WANE AND DISSIPATE AS IT
APPROACHES THE COASTAL PLAIN, AND WITH STORMS UNLIKELY TO REACH KACY
THIS EVENING, NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONG WINDS IN TSTORMS, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MOSTLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...ONCE SHWRS DISSIPATE AND END, AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, AND GUIDANCE INDICATES MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. THIS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS, STARTING AROUND THE 08Z/09Z
TIMEFRAME. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

THURSDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD LIFT, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
BACK TO VFR BY MID-MORNING. WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS, TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF THESE WAS TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS.


OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA EARLY. MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRI NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT...IFR/MVFR PSBL EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA PSBL WHICH MAY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE ON
TSRA.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH
SHRA/TSRA. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED, ALONG WITH SOME WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING THE 4 TO 5
FOOT RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. WE THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 10Z THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, WHILE SOME
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS MAY STILL OCCUR FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS, MAINLY SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS AND FOR DELAWARE BAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND
20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SAT NIGHT...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT.

SUN...SCA CONDS LIKELY WITH CFP.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OFFICE REGRESSION GUIDANCE, WE CONTINUE A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TODAY FOR THE NJ BEACHES UNDER A BREEZY SOUTH
WIND.

&&

.CLIMATE...


*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...KLINE
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 272008
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE COAST AND A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
REESTABLISHES ITSELF OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK
WHILE THE FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE EAST COAST AT LATE-DAY,
WITH AN ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE EXTENDING NEAR OUR REGION AND OUT
OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. MEANWHILE TO OUR WEST, AN UPPER TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT EXTEND OVER THE GREAT LAKES TO MIDWEST
STATES. THERE ALSO LOOKS TO BE A LEAD UPPER SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING
INTO OUR REGION AS WELL AS A WEAK LEE-SIDE SURFACE TROUGH ALONG THE
APPALACHIANS TO OUR WEST, HELPING TO CONTRIBUTE SOME ATMOSPHERIC
LIFT FOR SCATTERED CONVECTION. LAPS DATA SHOWS THAT SUFFICIENT
DESTABILIZATION HAS OCCURRED, WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE VALUES RANGING
MOSTLY BETWEEN 1000 TO 1500 J/KG ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA,
EXCEPT PERHAPS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. IN ADDITION, MODEST SHEAR
EXISTS ALONG WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE, WITH DEWPOINTS INTO THE
UPPER 60S AND EVEN LOW 70S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

WITH THESE FACTORS IN MIND, WE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A BROKEN LINE OF
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY GRADUALLY PROGRESSING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE REST OF LATE-DAY AND
INTO THIS EVENING. ALONG WITH DOWNPOURS, THE MAIN CONCERN WITH ANY
STRONGER TO SEVERE STORMS WOULD BE GUSTY TO LOCALLY DAMAGING
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS. WE CARRY LIKELY TO HIGH CHANCE POPS TO THE
INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH POPS FARTHER EAST
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING INTO MID EVENING.

A WARM AND MUGGY OVERNIGHT IS EXPECTED, AND WE USED A BLEND OF
MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, AND
WITH AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING ACROSS THE REGION, SOME
PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
DURING THE DAYTIME THURSDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH OUR FORECAST AREA DURING THE MORNING
AND GRADUALLY CROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO EVENING.
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY, AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED DURING
THE DAY, AND WITH THE APPROACHING FRONT AND A SHORTWAVE ALOFT ACTING
AS LIFTING MECHANISMS, MORE SCATTERED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
IS ANTICIPATED. WE BEGIN POPS A LITTLE EARLIER IN THE DAY, DURING
THE MORNING, FOR OUR WESTERN ZONES. HIGHEST CHANCE POPS, THOUGH, ARE
FOCUSED INTO THE AFTERNOON, BEFORE DECREASING THEN INTO THE EVENING
AS THE FRONT PASSES BY TO THE EAST. MET/MAV GUIDANCE BLENDED WITH
CONTINUITY YIELDS HIGH TEMPERATURES MOSTLY INTO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER
80S FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL BE MOVING ACROSS THE AREA AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD AND COULD HAVE SOME SHOWERS AND TSTMS WITH IT. THE PRECIP
SHOULD BE WINDING DOWN EARLY IN THE PD.

ON FRI, HIGH PRES BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION, AND DRY CONDS ARE
EXPECTED.

LOW PRES THEN ADVANCES ACRS QUEBEC ON SAT AND ITS ASSOCD CDFNT
WILL APPROACH FROM THE W ON SAT. THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY AS TO PRECIP CHCS ON SAT. THE GFS IS FASTER WITH THE
FRONT, AND HAS SOME PRECIP, MAINLY N. THE GFS IS SLOWER AND DRIER.
FOR NOW WILL GO WITH LOW POPS. THE GFS HAS CFP SAT NIGHT, WITH THE
ECMWF ON SUN. SHWRS/TSTMS WILL ACCOMPANY FROPA, BUT THERE STILL
REMAIN QUESTIONS AS TO THE TIMING.

THE FRONT THEN STALLS TO THE S OF THE REGION AS HIGH PRES BUILDS
OVER QUEBEC. YESTERDAY, THE MDLS HAD DRIED OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NOW, THEY ARE MAKING IT WETTER. AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOW AS THE
MDLS TRY TO IRON THINGS OUT. LOWERED POPS A BIT YESTERDAY, AND
RAISED THEM A BIT TODAY, BUT DON`T WANT TO MAKE ANY WHOLESALE
CHANGES. ALSO, SOME QUESTIONS REMAIN AS TO AREAL EXTENT AND
PLACEMENT OF THE PRECIP.

BY TUE, THE LOW MOVE NEWD OUT TO SEA AND PRECIP CHCS EITHER MOVE
NWD (GFS) OR DECREASE (ECMWF).

THE FCST IS CONTINGENT ON THE STALLED FRONT AND WHERE IT STALLS,
WHETHER IT WASHES OUT AND IF ANY WAVES DEVELOP UPON IT. THE MDLS
ARE HAVING A DIFFICULT TIME RESOLVING THE FCST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
AS A RESULT, THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS FCST IS MUCH BELOW AVERAGE.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME PRECIP BEYOND SUN, BUT WHERE, WHEN, AND
TO WHAT EXTENT REMAIN BIG QUESTIONS.

TEMPS LOOK TO START ABV NRML BUT CUD BE BELOW NRML ERLY NEXT WEEK
DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT.


&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

OVERALL, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE-DAY AND THIS
EVENING, EXCEPT A PERIOD OF SUB-VFR IS POSSIBLE WITH ANY SCATTERED
SHOWER/TSTORM ACTIVITY. WE HAVE INCLUDED A MENTION OF THIS IN THE
TAFS AS A TEMPO GROUP, WITH THE 19Z TO 21Z TIMEFRAME EXPECTED FOR
MUCH OF EASTERN PA AND THE 22Z TO 01Z TIMEFRAME IN AND AROUND THE I-
95 CORRIDOR. THEREAFTER, WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING, WE EXPECT
ANY LEFTOVER SHWR/TSTORM ACTIVITY TO WANE AND DISSIPATE AS IT
APPROACHES THE COASTAL PLAIN, AND WITH STORMS UNLIKELY TO REACH KACY
THIS EVENING, NO MENTION WAS INCLUDED IN THE TAF.

OUTSIDE OF ANY STRONG WINDS IN TSTORMS, SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE MOSTLY IN THE 10 TO 15 KNOT RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS NEAR 20
KNOTS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING.

OVERNIGHT...ONCE SHWRS DISSIPATE AND END, AMPLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA, AND GUIDANCE INDICATES MOSTLY MVFR
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH SOME LOWER CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG. THIS
HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAFS, STARTING AROUND THE 08Z/09Z
TIMEFRAME. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DECREASE TO 5 KNOTS OR LESS.

THURSDAY...ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG SHOULD LIFT, WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING
BACK TO VFR BY MID-MORNING. WHILE SOME SCATTERED SHWRS/TSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS, TIMING
AND COVERAGE OF THESE WAS TOO UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN
THE TAFS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND
INCREASE TO AROUND 10 TO 12 KNOTS.


OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. SCT SHRA/TSRA EARLY. MDT CONFIDENCE.

FRI...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRI NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT. MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT...IFR/MVFR PSBL EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING THE DAY.
SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA PSBL WHICH MAY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY
SOUTH- SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE ON
TSRA.

SAT NIGHT-SUN...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH
SHRA/TSRA. LOW TO MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...

THROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, SOME WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED, ALONG WITH SOME WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING THE 4 TO 5
FOOT RANGE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. WE THEREFORE MAINTAIN THE CURRENT
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH 10Z THURSDAY. THEREAFTER, WHILE SOME
WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS MAY STILL OCCUR FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS, MAINLY SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE COASTAL WATERS AND FOR DELAWARE BAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU-SAT...SUB-SCA CONDS EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND
20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SAT NIGHT...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER OVERNIGHT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING CDFNT.

SUN...SCA CONDS LIKELY WITH CFP.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON OFFICE REGRESSION GUIDANCE, WE CONTINUE A MODERATE RISK OF
RIP CURRENTS THROUGH TODAY FOR THE NJ BEACHES UNDER A BREEZY SOUTH
WIND.

&&

.CLIMATE...


*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLINE/NIERENBERG
MARINE...KLINE/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...KLINE
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 271714
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
114 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EAST COAST REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF
OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 700
PM.

WITH THE UPDATE, HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED
SOMEWHAT USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS, BUT MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK BASED ON
THIS MORNINGS 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR SOME
LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION AS THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
WHEN/HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES LATER TODAY. THE HRRR
AND OTHER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT CONVECTION MOVING INTO OUR
AREA FOR MID-AFTERNOON TO EVENING, AND WE KEPT HIGHER POPS IN
PLACE FOR THIS PERIOD.

OTHERWISE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PARK OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
WILL BE POSITIONED IN BETWEEN THIS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BACK AND
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS THE PRESSURE/GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TIGHTENS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WX TODAY COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS WILL BE THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70F THIS AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A DIRECT RESULT OF THE THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
STRONG DIABATIC HEATING. MEAN MLCAPE VALUES FROM BOTH THE 00Z
NCAR/MMM HI-RES ENSEMBLES AND 03Z SREF ARE AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR
OUR INLAND AREAS. WHILE FORECAST 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KT
WILL BE MODEST, A 35-40 KT JET AT 500 MB WILL ENHANCE SHEAR
PROFILES IN THE 0-5 KM LAYER LATE IN THE DAY. THE MAIN QUESTION
LEADING UP TO TODAY WAS WHETHER THERE WAS GOING TO BE A LIFTING
MECHANISM TO INITIATE CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME FORCING. THE HIRES GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT,
FOCUSING THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN PA DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH ADDED UPPER FORCING BROUGHT TO YOU BY AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. POPS ARE HIGHEST (LIKELY)
WEST OF THE PHILLY METRO WHERE THE ARRIVAL OF THE LINE SHOULD
COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING. OVERALL, THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS.
THE LATEST D1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS PLACED AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF I-95 IN A SLIGHT RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH FORECAST 925/850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND 1C HIGHER TODAY THAN
WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO ALSO BE HIGHER TODAY (ESPECIALLY INLAND). THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME IS MAX TEMPS TODAY THAT ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TWO DAYS. OVERALL, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TEMPS ARE ON THE HIGHER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR A PERSISTENT COOL BIAS SEEN
IN THE MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
LATEST HI-RES MODEL SIMULATIONS SHOW A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER EASTERN PA THAT CROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNSET
AND DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE CONVERGENCE/SOURCE OF LIFT NEAR THE
LEE TROUGH AND INSTABILITY WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING, RESULTING IN A GENERALLY WEAKENING TREND AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. HOWEVER, THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS EARLY. POPS DECREASE SHARPLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACCORDINGLY.

CLOUD COVER AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD TONIGHT.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IF WE
ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT, WE MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS WELL. WITH AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE QPF
AMOUNTS ARE NOT HIGH, 0.10-0.25 INCHES, PW VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5
INCHES, SO IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WITH A LACK OF
STRONG SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, ALTHOUGH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN
EDGE. SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL, WHICH
SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY DRY INTO FRIDAY. WITH RETURN
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS.

THE RIDGING ALOFT PUSHES EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY, WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING, ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA, AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THIS FRONT. THE
GFS HAS THE FRONT AND ITS PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WE`LL CONTINUE WITH ENHANCED POPS DURING THE
TIME PERIOD, GENERALLY CENTERED AROUND SUNDAY AND WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER FINE TUNE TIMING AS MODELS COME TO AN AGREEMENT. PW VALUES
INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. AGAIN, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE
GFS KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA, KEEPING MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF STARTS TO LIFT
THE FRONT BACK NORTH TOWARD THE AREA, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER CHANCES. WE`LL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY,
BECAUSE THE GFS HAS DOES HAVE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA. SO THIS COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SOME STRATUS WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MID-MORNING, BEFORE LIFTING AND
DISSIPATING BY LATE MORNING.

EXPECT SHRA AND TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT A TSRA PROB30 GROUP IN THE
06Z FOR RDG AND ABE AND ADDED IT TO THE 09Z PHL TAF FOR THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST, THERE IS HIGHER UNCERTAINTY IF
STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COASTAL PLAIN SO
NO MENTION OF TSRA AT THIS TIME. STORMS UNLIKELY TO REACH ACY THIS
EVENING.

S-SW WINDS 5-10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASE TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY LOCALLY
REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WAS CANCELLED FOR THIS MORNING AS WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO
BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. EXPECT GUSTS TO 25 KT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
RESPOND TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT. ACCORDINGLY, THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON IN HOUSE REGRESSION GUIDANCE, HAVE INCLUDED A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY FOR THE NJ BEACHES UNDER A BREEZY
SOUTH WIND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 271714
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
114 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EAST COAST REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF
OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 700
PM.

WITH THE UPDATE, HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED
SOMEWHAT USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS, BUT MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK BASED ON
THIS MORNINGS 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR SOME
LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION AS THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
WHEN/HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES LATER TODAY. THE HRRR
AND OTHER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT CONVECTION MOVING INTO OUR
AREA FOR MID-AFTERNOON TO EVENING, AND WE KEPT HIGHER POPS IN
PLACE FOR THIS PERIOD.

OTHERWISE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PARK OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
WILL BE POSITIONED IN BETWEEN THIS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BACK AND
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS THE PRESSURE/GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TIGHTENS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WX TODAY COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS WILL BE THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70F THIS AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A DIRECT RESULT OF THE THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
STRONG DIABATIC HEATING. MEAN MLCAPE VALUES FROM BOTH THE 00Z
NCAR/MMM HI-RES ENSEMBLES AND 03Z SREF ARE AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR
OUR INLAND AREAS. WHILE FORECAST 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KT
WILL BE MODEST, A 35-40 KT JET AT 500 MB WILL ENHANCE SHEAR
PROFILES IN THE 0-5 KM LAYER LATE IN THE DAY. THE MAIN QUESTION
LEADING UP TO TODAY WAS WHETHER THERE WAS GOING TO BE A LIFTING
MECHANISM TO INITIATE CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME FORCING. THE HIRES GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT,
FOCUSING THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN PA DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH ADDED UPPER FORCING BROUGHT TO YOU BY AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. POPS ARE HIGHEST (LIKELY)
WEST OF THE PHILLY METRO WHERE THE ARRIVAL OF THE LINE SHOULD
COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING. OVERALL, THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS.
THE LATEST D1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS PLACED AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF I-95 IN A SLIGHT RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH FORECAST 925/850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND 1C HIGHER TODAY THAN
WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO ALSO BE HIGHER TODAY (ESPECIALLY INLAND). THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME IS MAX TEMPS TODAY THAT ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TWO DAYS. OVERALL, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TEMPS ARE ON THE HIGHER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR A PERSISTENT COOL BIAS SEEN
IN THE MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
LATEST HI-RES MODEL SIMULATIONS SHOW A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER EASTERN PA THAT CROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNSET
AND DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE CONVERGENCE/SOURCE OF LIFT NEAR THE
LEE TROUGH AND INSTABILITY WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING, RESULTING IN A GENERALLY WEAKENING TREND AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. HOWEVER, THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS EARLY. POPS DECREASE SHARPLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACCORDINGLY.

CLOUD COVER AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD TONIGHT.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IF WE
ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT, WE MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS WELL. WITH AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE QPF
AMOUNTS ARE NOT HIGH, 0.10-0.25 INCHES, PW VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5
INCHES, SO IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WITH A LACK OF
STRONG SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, ALTHOUGH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN
EDGE. SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL, WHICH
SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY DRY INTO FRIDAY. WITH RETURN
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS.

THE RIDGING ALOFT PUSHES EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY, WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING, ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA, AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THIS FRONT. THE
GFS HAS THE FRONT AND ITS PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WE`LL CONTINUE WITH ENHANCED POPS DURING THE
TIME PERIOD, GENERALLY CENTERED AROUND SUNDAY AND WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER FINE TUNE TIMING AS MODELS COME TO AN AGREEMENT. PW VALUES
INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. AGAIN, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE
GFS KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA, KEEPING MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF STARTS TO LIFT
THE FRONT BACK NORTH TOWARD THE AREA, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER CHANCES. WE`LL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY,
BECAUSE THE GFS HAS DOES HAVE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA. SO THIS COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SOME STRATUS WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MID-MORNING, BEFORE LIFTING AND
DISSIPATING BY LATE MORNING.

EXPECT SHRA AND TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT A TSRA PROB30 GROUP IN THE
06Z FOR RDG AND ABE AND ADDED IT TO THE 09Z PHL TAF FOR THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST, THERE IS HIGHER UNCERTAINTY IF
STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COASTAL PLAIN SO
NO MENTION OF TSRA AT THIS TIME. STORMS UNLIKELY TO REACH ACY THIS
EVENING.

S-SW WINDS 5-10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASE TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY LOCALLY
REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WAS CANCELLED FOR THIS MORNING AS WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO
BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. EXPECT GUSTS TO 25 KT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
RESPOND TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT. ACCORDINGLY, THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON IN HOUSE REGRESSION GUIDANCE, HAVE INCLUDED A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY FOR THE NJ BEACHES UNDER A BREEZY
SOUTH WIND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 271714
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
114 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EAST COAST REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF
OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 700
PM.

WITH THE UPDATE, HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED
SOMEWHAT USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS, BUT MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK BASED ON
THIS MORNINGS 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR SOME
LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION AS THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
WHEN/HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES LATER TODAY. THE HRRR
AND OTHER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT CONVECTION MOVING INTO OUR
AREA FOR MID-AFTERNOON TO EVENING, AND WE KEPT HIGHER POPS IN
PLACE FOR THIS PERIOD.

OTHERWISE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PARK OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
WILL BE POSITIONED IN BETWEEN THIS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BACK AND
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS THE PRESSURE/GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TIGHTENS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WX TODAY COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS WILL BE THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70F THIS AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A DIRECT RESULT OF THE THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
STRONG DIABATIC HEATING. MEAN MLCAPE VALUES FROM BOTH THE 00Z
NCAR/MMM HI-RES ENSEMBLES AND 03Z SREF ARE AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR
OUR INLAND AREAS. WHILE FORECAST 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KT
WILL BE MODEST, A 35-40 KT JET AT 500 MB WILL ENHANCE SHEAR
PROFILES IN THE 0-5 KM LAYER LATE IN THE DAY. THE MAIN QUESTION
LEADING UP TO TODAY WAS WHETHER THERE WAS GOING TO BE A LIFTING
MECHANISM TO INITIATE CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME FORCING. THE HIRES GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT,
FOCUSING THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN PA DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH ADDED UPPER FORCING BROUGHT TO YOU BY AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. POPS ARE HIGHEST (LIKELY)
WEST OF THE PHILLY METRO WHERE THE ARRIVAL OF THE LINE SHOULD
COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING. OVERALL, THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS.
THE LATEST D1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS PLACED AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF I-95 IN A SLIGHT RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH FORECAST 925/850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND 1C HIGHER TODAY THAN
WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO ALSO BE HIGHER TODAY (ESPECIALLY INLAND). THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME IS MAX TEMPS TODAY THAT ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TWO DAYS. OVERALL, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TEMPS ARE ON THE HIGHER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR A PERSISTENT COOL BIAS SEEN
IN THE MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
LATEST HI-RES MODEL SIMULATIONS SHOW A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER EASTERN PA THAT CROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNSET
AND DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE CONVERGENCE/SOURCE OF LIFT NEAR THE
LEE TROUGH AND INSTABILITY WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING, RESULTING IN A GENERALLY WEAKENING TREND AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. HOWEVER, THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS EARLY. POPS DECREASE SHARPLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACCORDINGLY.

CLOUD COVER AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD TONIGHT.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IF WE
ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT, WE MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS WELL. WITH AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE QPF
AMOUNTS ARE NOT HIGH, 0.10-0.25 INCHES, PW VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5
INCHES, SO IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WITH A LACK OF
STRONG SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, ALTHOUGH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN
EDGE. SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL, WHICH
SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY DRY INTO FRIDAY. WITH RETURN
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS.

THE RIDGING ALOFT PUSHES EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY, WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING, ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA, AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THIS FRONT. THE
GFS HAS THE FRONT AND ITS PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WE`LL CONTINUE WITH ENHANCED POPS DURING THE
TIME PERIOD, GENERALLY CENTERED AROUND SUNDAY AND WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER FINE TUNE TIMING AS MODELS COME TO AN AGREEMENT. PW VALUES
INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. AGAIN, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE
GFS KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA, KEEPING MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF STARTS TO LIFT
THE FRONT BACK NORTH TOWARD THE AREA, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER CHANCES. WE`LL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY,
BECAUSE THE GFS HAS DOES HAVE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA. SO THIS COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SOME STRATUS WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MID-MORNING, BEFORE LIFTING AND
DISSIPATING BY LATE MORNING.

EXPECT SHRA AND TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT A TSRA PROB30 GROUP IN THE
06Z FOR RDG AND ABE AND ADDED IT TO THE 09Z PHL TAF FOR THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST, THERE IS HIGHER UNCERTAINTY IF
STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COASTAL PLAIN SO
NO MENTION OF TSRA AT THIS TIME. STORMS UNLIKELY TO REACH ACY THIS
EVENING.

S-SW WINDS 5-10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASE TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY LOCALLY
REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WAS CANCELLED FOR THIS MORNING AS WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO
BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. EXPECT GUSTS TO 25 KT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
RESPOND TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT. ACCORDINGLY, THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON IN HOUSE REGRESSION GUIDANCE, HAVE INCLUDED A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY FOR THE NJ BEACHES UNDER A BREEZY
SOUTH WIND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 271714
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
114 PM EDT WED MAY 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE EAST COAST REMAINS ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ATLANTIC
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TODAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REESTABLISHES ITSELF
OFF THE EAST COAST FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST
TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL RETURN TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS TO OUR SOUTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE AREA UNTIL 700
PM.

WITH THE UPDATE, HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WERE ADJUSTED
SOMEWHAT USING THE LAV/LAMP GUIDANCE TO MORE CLOSELY MATCH THE
LATEST OBS AND TRENDS, BUT MAX TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK BASED ON
THIS MORNINGS 12Z REGIONAL SOUNDINGS. WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR SOME
LINGERING STRATUS ACROSS THE REGION AS THIS WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
WHEN/HOW MUCH THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES LATER TODAY. THE HRRR
AND OTHER GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO REFLECT CONVECTION MOVING INTO OUR
AREA FOR MID-AFTERNOON TO EVENING, AND WE KEPT HIGHER POPS IN
PLACE FOR THIS PERIOD.

OTHERWISE, SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED UPPER RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PARK OFF THE EAST COAST TODAY. THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION
WILL BE POSITIONED IN BETWEEN THIS DOWNSTREAM RIDGE AND AN
APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST/GREAT LAKES. SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGHOUT THE TROPOSPHERE WILL BACK AND
STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS THE PRESSURE/GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT GRADIENT
BETWEEN THESE TWO SYSTEMS TIGHTENS OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD.

A NOTICEABLE CHANGE IN THE SENSIBLE WX TODAY COMPARED TO RECENT
DAYS WILL BE THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY WITH DEWPOINTS RISING INTO
THE MID 60S TO NEAR 70F THIS AFTERNOON.

THE ATMOSPHERE IS FORECAST TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS
AFTERNOON AS A DIRECT RESULT OF THE THE INCREASING MOISTURE AND
STRONG DIABATIC HEATING. MEAN MLCAPE VALUES FROM BOTH THE 00Z
NCAR/MMM HI-RES ENSEMBLES AND 03Z SREF ARE AROUND 1500 J/KG FOR
OUR INLAND AREAS. WHILE FORECAST 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 20-25 KT
WILL BE MODEST, A 35-40 KT JET AT 500 MB WILL ENHANCE SHEAR
PROFILES IN THE 0-5 KM LAYER LATE IN THE DAY. THE MAIN QUESTION
LEADING UP TO TODAY WAS WHETHER THERE WAS GOING TO BE A LIFTING
MECHANISM TO INITIATE CONVECTION. IT APPEARS THAT THERE WILL BE
SOME FORCING. THE HIRES GUIDANCE HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT,
FOCUSING THE INITIAL CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG A LEE SURFACE
TROUGH TO OUR WEST DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A BROKEN LINE OF
STORMS SHOULD PROGRESS EASTWARD INTO EASTERN PA DURING THE MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON WITH ADDED UPPER FORCING BROUGHT TO YOU BY AN
APPROACHING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH. POPS ARE HIGHEST (LIKELY)
WEST OF THE PHILLY METRO WHERE THE ARRIVAL OF THE LINE SHOULD
COINCIDE WITH PEAK HEATING. OVERALL, THE FORECAST ENVIRONMENT
SUPPORTS A POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING STRAIGHT-LINE WIND GUSTS.
THE LATEST D1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK FROM SPC HAS PLACED AREAS ALONG
AND WEST OF I-95 IN A SLIGHT RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

ALTHOUGH FORECAST 925/850 MB TEMPS ARE AROUND 1C HIGHER TODAY THAN
WHAT WAS OBSERVED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TO ALSO BE HIGHER TODAY (ESPECIALLY INLAND). THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME IS MAX TEMPS TODAY THAT ARE VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
TWO DAYS. OVERALL, THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TEMPS ARE ON THE HIGHER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE AFTER ACCOUNTING FOR A PERSISTENT COOL BIAS SEEN
IN THE MODELS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
LATEST HI-RES MODEL SIMULATIONS SHOW A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS AND
STORMS OVER EASTERN PA THAT CROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR AROUND SUNSET
AND DISSIPATE BEFORE IT REACHES THE COAST. CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO BECOME SEPARATED FROM THE CONVERGENCE/SOURCE OF LIFT NEAR THE
LEE TROUGH AND INSTABILITY WILL WANE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING, RESULTING IN A GENERALLY WEAKENING TREND AS IT MOVES
EASTWARD. HOWEVER, THERE COULD STILL BE A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS EARLY. POPS DECREASE SHARPLY FROM WEST TO EAST ACCORDINGLY.

CLOUD COVER AND MUGGY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPS MILD TONIGHT.
FORECAST MIN TEMPS ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. IF WE
ARE ABLE TO CLEAR OUT OVERNIGHT, WE MAY SEE PATCHY FOG DEVELOP.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THURSDAY, A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH THE AREA AND MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY INTO THE EVENING HOURS. A SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING AS WELL. WITH AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY DURING THE DAY, SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ABLE TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA. WHILE QPF
AMOUNTS ARE NOT HIGH, 0.10-0.25 INCHES, PW VALUES ARE NEAR 1.5
INCHES, SO IT IS POSSIBLE FOR SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WITH A LACK OF
STRONG SHEAR, THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW, ALTHOUGH ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND
HEAVY RAIN.

ONCE THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO
REESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE ATLANTIC, WITH OUR AREA ON THE WESTERN
EDGE. SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL, WHICH
SHOULD HELP KEEP THE WEATHER MOSTLY DRY INTO FRIDAY. WITH RETURN
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, INSTABILITY IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
WESTERN AREAS. THIS DAYTIME INSTABILITY COULD LEAD TO A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN AREAS.

THE RIDGING ALOFT PUSHES EASTWARD SLIGHTLY SATURDAY, WITH SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING, ALLOWING FOR A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA LATE SATURDAY. WITH DAYTIME
INSTABILITY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE AREA, AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE AREA.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE REMAINS TIMING
DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF REGARDING THIS FRONT. THE
GFS HAS THE FRONT AND ITS PRECIPITATION MOVING THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF HAS THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. WE`LL CONTINUE WITH ENHANCED POPS DURING THE
TIME PERIOD, GENERALLY CENTERED AROUND SUNDAY AND WILL BE ABLE TO
BETTER FINE TUNE TIMING AS MODELS COME TO AN AGREEMENT. PW VALUES
INCREASE TO NEAR 2 INCHES, SO THERE COULD BE A PERIOD OF HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH ANY SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP DURING THE TIME PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS TO THE NORTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES SOUTH AND LIKELY STALLS JUST SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. AGAIN, THERE ARE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF. THE
GFS KEEPS HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA, KEEPING MOSTLY DRY
WEATHER INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK. THE ECMWF STARTS TO LIFT
THE FRONT BACK NORTH TOWARD THE AREA, BRINGING AN INCREASE IN
SHOWER CHANCES. WE`LL KEEP A SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS INTO TUESDAY,
BECAUSE THE GFS HAS DOES HAVE A FEW SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA. SO THIS COULD STILL PRODUCE SOME
SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAYTIME INSTABILITY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SOME STRATUS WITH CIGS AROUND 1500 FT WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH MID-MORNING, BEFORE LIFTING AND
DISSIPATING BY LATE MORNING.

EXPECT SHRA AND TSRA TO DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
CENTRAL/EASTERN PA THIS AFTERNOON. KEPT A TSRA PROB30 GROUP IN THE
06Z FOR RDG AND ABE AND ADDED IT TO THE 09Z PHL TAF FOR THE MID
TO LATE AFTERNOON. FARTHER EAST, THERE IS HIGHER UNCERTAINTY IF
STORMS WILL BE MAINTAINED BY THE TIME IT REACHES THE COASTAL PLAIN SO
NO MENTION OF TSRA AT THIS TIME. STORMS UNLIKELY TO REACH ACY THIS
EVENING.

S-SW WINDS 5-10 KT THIS MORNING INCREASE TO 10-15 KT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...GENERALLY VFR. SCATTERED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY WHICH MAY LOCALLY
REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

FRIDAY...GENERALLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FOR
WESTERN TAFS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, THEN LOWERING CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE
OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...LOWER CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN BECOMING VFR DURING
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE WHICH MAY
LOCALLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS. GUSTY SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITH
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA WAS CANCELLED FOR THIS MORNING AS WINDS AND SEAS HAVE FALLEN TO
BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. EXPECT GUSTS TO 25 KT, ESPECIALLY NEAR THE COAST. SEAS WILL
RESPOND TO THE STRENGTHENING WINDS WITH WAVE HEIGHTS FORECAST TO
INCREASE TO NEAR 5 FT. ACCORDINGLY, THE SCA REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY-SATURDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS CURRENTLY
EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS AT TIMES.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SEAS MAY RETURN TO 5 FEET OR GREATER OVERNIGHT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
BASED ON IN HOUSE REGRESSION GUIDANCE, HAVE INCLUDED A MODERATE
RISK OF RIP CURRENTS TODAY FOR THE NJ BEACHES UNDER A BREEZY
SOUTH WIND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A TOP 10 WARMEST MAY WILL OCCUR IN LARGE PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THE FIRST 25 DAYS OF MAY IN OUR FORECAST AREA WERE AVERAGING
ABOUT 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

RUNNING THE NUMBERS FROM THE FCST THROUGH THE END OF THE MONTH WE
FIND THE FOLLOWING.

FOR PHILADELPHIA...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1874.
PROJECTING A MONTHLY AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 69 TO 70 RISING FROM
THE CURRENT VALUE OF 67.8, AT LEAST 5 TO 6 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
HEADING FOR MOST LIKELY THE THIRD WARMEST MAY ON RECORD. WARMEST
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IN MAY ON RECORD WAS 70.8 IN 1991. THEN 69.2
2004 AND 68.2 IN 2012.

FOR ALLENTOWN...PERIOD OF RECORD (POR) BACK TO 1922. THE MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE IS CURRENTLY 63.9 DEGREES. IT IS LIKELY TO
INCREASE BY A DEGREE OR TWO LATER THIS WEEK, LEADING TO A TOP 10
WARMEST MAY THIS YEAR AT ALLENTOWN. THE WARMEST AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE IN MAY WAS 67.2 BACK IN 1991.

FOR WILMINGTON.... THE MONTH OF MAY IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE
TOP 5- 10 WARMEST. THE CURRENT MONTHLY TEMPERATURE IS 65.8 DEGREES
AND SHOULD RISE A DEGREE OR TWO BY MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS
IN 1896 WHERE THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 70.1 DEGREES. IN 1991
THE MONTHLY TEMPERATURE WAS 69.1 DEGREES.

FOR ATLANTIC CITY... THE MONTH IS LIKELY TO END UP IN THE TOP
THREE WARMEST MAYS. CURRENTLY, THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE FOR THE
MONTH IS 64.5 DEGREES AND IS LIKELY TO RISE A DEGREE TOR TWO BY
MONTHS END. THE WARMEST MAY WAS BACK IN 2004 WHERE THE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE REACHED 66.9 DEGREES. IN 1991 THE MONTHLY AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WAS 66 DEGREES. BOTH 2011 AND 2012 SAW A MONTHLY
AVERAGE TEMPERATURE OF 65 DEGREES.

NORMAL FIRST DATE OF 90 OR HIGHER.

PHILADELPHIA MAY 29 ALLENTOWN MAY 30 WILMINGTON JUNE 4 ATLANTIC
CITY JUNE 11.

*************************************************************

HERE IS OUR ANNUAL LOOK AS TO HOW HOT, HOT, HOT THE SUMMER WILL
BE BASED ON PAST PERFORMANCES.

A FULL FLEDGED EL NINO IS UNDERWAY IN THE TROPICAL PACIFIC. ALL
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS KEEP IT GOING, THE DIFFERENCES
THAT EXIST ARE TO ITS STRENGTH THROUGH THIS UPCOMING SUMMER. THE
DYNAMICAL AND STATISTICAL MODELS ARE AVERAGING A MODERATE EL NINO
FOR THE COMBINED SUMMER MONTHS. SOME MODELS, INCLUDING THE CFS2
AND ECMWF ARE PREDICTING A STRONG EL NINO. IN THE CPC MONITORING
EL NINO ERA STARTING SINCE 1950, THE HIGHEST (WARMEST) SUMMER
ANOMALY RECORDED WAS +1.5C (NEAR OR AT THE THRESHOLD FOR STRONG EL
NINOS) DURING THE SUMMER OF 1997.

THIS UPCOMING WEEK WILL REALLY SEAL THE DEAL THAT THIS MAY WILL
BE UNSEASONABLY WARM IN PHILADELPHIA. IT "MAY" EVEN BE A TOP THREE
WARMEST. THIS FOLLOWS ON THE HEELS OF AN UNSEASONABLY WARM APRIL.
SINCE 1872, THE COMBINATION OF BOTH WARM (TOP THIRD OF ALL YEARS)
APRILS AND MAYS HAS ONLY OCCURRED TWENTY-THREE TIMES. BUT IT HAS
OCCURRED ELEVEN TIMES SINCE 1990 AND SIX OF THE LAST SEVEN
SPRINGS.

SO WE SCOURED THE CLIMATE RECORDS TO FIND BUDDING OR IN PROGRESS
EL NINOS THAT COINCIDED WITH BOTH WARM APRILS AND MAYS LOCALLY IN
THE CPC MONITORING ERA. WE FOUND THREE PAST SUMMERS THAT MET THE
CRITERIA. THE ONE SIGN IS THAT ALL THREE ANALOG SUMMERS WERE
WETTER THAN NORMAL, HOPEFULLY KEEPING DROUGHT CONDITIONS FROM
INTENSIFYING FURTHER.

THE NORTH AMERICAN MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE PREDICTIONS FOR THIS
UPCOMING SUMMER HAS WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL WEATHER EXPECTED
IN OUR AREA. THE INTERNATIONAL MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS ARE
SLIGHTLY MORE OPTIMISTIC PREDICTING NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION.

THE ANALOGS FOR PHILADELPHIA ARE:

YEAR    JUNE AVG   JULY AVG   AUGUST AVG   SUMMER AVG   SUMMER PCPN

1969      73.4        75.1      75.2         74.6        18.30
1977      68.6        77.8      76.2         74.2        15.50
1991      75.7        79.0      79.0         77.9        12.01
AVG       72.6        77.3      76.8         75.6        15.27

1981-
2010      73.3        78.1      76.6         76.0        11.28
NORMAL

THE OFFICIAL CPC OUTLOOK FOR OUR FORECAST AREA IS FOR EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AS WELL AS EQUAL
CHANCES OF ABOVE AND BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...KLEIN/KLINE/ROBERTSON
MARINE...KLEIN/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



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