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000
FXUS61 KPHI 060843
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THEN SINK SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PREDICTED TO FORM ON THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE CLR THIS MORNING...AND THEN
THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH LOW/MID 20S NORTH AND MID 20S
TO LOW 30S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA AND OVER THE DELMARVA. WINDS WILL
BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS MORNING AND THEN BECOME
WEST OR SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH BY DUSK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THU NIGHT AND WITH THE AMPLE
SNOW COVER ACROSS THE REGION...LOW TEMPERATURES COULD BE AS COLD (OR
PERHAPS COLDER) THAN THU NIGHTS READINGS. PRESENTLY WE HAVE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH TEENS ALONG THE SHORE AND 12 FOR PHL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 500MB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER OFF THE WRF VS THE GFS, OVERALL
THEY WERE SPLIT AT 850MB AND BOTH ABOUT 1C TOO COLD AT 925MB ON
AVERAGE. AFTER HAVING THREE WINTRY PCPN EVENTS IN THE FIRST FIVE DAYS
OF MARCH, THE LONG TERM REMAINS RELATIVELY MORE SUBDUED WITH A MUCH
ANTICIPATED RETURN (EVEN IF ITS JUST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS) OF NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONE CHANGE TONIGHT VS LAST NIGHT IS THE
INCREASING CHANCE THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MIGHT BRING SOME RAIN
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

THE MODERATING TREND WILL START ON SATURDAY AFTER A COLD COLD COLD
MORNING. MID LEVEL WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR CWA, ESPECIALLY
NORTH. IN SPITE OF THIS, WE WENT TOWARD THE HIGHER SET OF STAT
GUIDANCE. TODAY (FRIDAY) WILL BE A GOOD LITMUS TEST IF STAT
GUIDANCE COLD BIAS IN SPITE OF AMPLE SNOW COVER CONTINUES. AS FAR
AS SNOW SHOWERS, THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE
GEOGRAPHICAL EXTENT OF MEASURABLE PCPN REACHING DEEPER INTO OUR
CWA. ONLY CHANGE WE MADE, WAS TO START THE LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SHOULD PASS THROUGH
OUR CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO GENERATE
SHOWERS. LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT FAR NORTH. MODELS ARE
INDICATING MORE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER AN
INVERSION NORTH) AROUND AND THIS IS REASON FOR MUCH HIGHER MINS.

ON SUNDAY, SOME WEAK PVA AND A JET STREAK ARE PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS OUR CWA, LEANING NORTH. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF WE HAVE
THE GEOGRAPHY STRAIGHT, THE JET STREAK ITSELF LOOKS MORE CERTAIN. WE
PUT IN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES NORTH AS A PROXY. WHILE SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LACK OF ICE COULD BE A PROBLEM (ESPECIALLY ON THE MOISTURE
TRAPPED NAM SOUNDINGS), WESTERLY WINDS ARE NORMALLY NOT A FREEZING
DRIZZLE DIRECTION IN OUR AREA. WHILE COLDER AIR (RELATIVE TO
SATURDAY) IS PREDICTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA, IT WARMS BEYOND
SATURDAY AT 925MB. THUS REASON FOR BUMP UP IN MAX TEMPS.

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. BY
THEN AIR MASS IS EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WE EXPECT THE SNOW COVER
TO BE LOSING ITS EFFECTIVENESS ON SLOWING THE RISE OF MAX TEMPS.

CHANGE THEN COMES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO TUESDAY AS ALL THE
RUNS HAVE TRENDED NORTH WITH A LOW FORMING OFF THE OLD STALLED
FRONT. UNLESS PCPN FLIES IN ON MONDAY NIGHT, THERMALLY IT LOOKS WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOUTH IS FAVORED OVER NORTH.
FASTER TIMING COUPLED WITH A MORE NORTHERN EXTENSION MIGHT BE
PROBLEMATIC FOR PTYPE. IN ITS WAKE, AN EVEN MILDER DAY IS
PREDICTED FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS COLDER AIR BACK INTO OUR CWA POSSIBLY AS SOON AS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLR THIS MORNING AND
THEN SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY OR NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS EARLY TODAY THEN GO LIGHT
WEST/SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE MAINLY
TO CIGS AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES BY LATER SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE
TERMINALS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR OVERALL.

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS. PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SCA FLAG FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND SRN DEL
BAY FOR THE MORNING. WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST 25 TO 30 KTS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A FEW 30 TO 35 KNT GUSTS AT THE (HIGHER) BRND1
PLATFORM. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH  LATER THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT ON THE OCEAN THIS
MORNING...DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHC FOR FREEZING
SPRAY TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY.
THERE IS A CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
PENDING THE PROXIMITY OF THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PREDICTED TO FORM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RER`S POSTED FOR KILG AND KACY...BOTH 7.0 INCHES.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/GORSE
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060843
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 AM EST FRI MAR 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THEN SINK SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD PASS ACROSS OUR REGION MONDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
PREDICTED TO FORM ON THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST TUESDAY AND THEN MOVE FARTHER OFFSHORE. A HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE EASTERN UNITED STATES ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FAIR WEATHER AND COLD TEMPERATURES TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN FROM THE OHIO VALLEY. SKIES WILL BE CLR THIS MORNING...AND THEN
THERE WILL BE SOME HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES
TODAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL...WITH LOW/MID 20S NORTH AND MID 20S
TO LOW 30S OVER METRO PHILADELPHIA AND OVER THE DELMARVA. WINDS WILL
BE NORTH OR NORTHWEST AT 5 TO 10 MPH THIS MORNING AND THEN BECOME
WEST OR SOUTHWEST AROUND 5 MPH BY DUSK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA
TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER THAN THU NIGHT AND WITH THE AMPLE
SNOW COVER ACROSS THE REGION...LOW TEMPERATURES COULD BE AS COLD (OR
PERHAPS COLDER) THAN THU NIGHTS READINGS. PRESENTLY WE HAVE SINGLE
DIGITS ACROSS MOST AREAS WITH TEENS ALONG THE SHORE AND 12 FOR PHL.
WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TONIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE 500MB INITIALIZATION LOOKED BETTER OFF THE WRF VS THE GFS, OVERALL
THEY WERE SPLIT AT 850MB AND BOTH ABOUT 1C TOO COLD AT 925MB ON
AVERAGE. AFTER HAVING THREE WINTRY PCPN EVENTS IN THE FIRST FIVE DAYS
OF MARCH, THE LONG TERM REMAINS RELATIVELY MORE SUBDUED WITH A MUCH
ANTICIPATED RETURN (EVEN IF ITS JUST FOR A COUPLE OF DAYS) OF NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE ONE CHANGE TONIGHT VS LAST NIGHT IS THE
INCREASING CHANCE THAT A SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM MIGHT BRING SOME RAIN
INTO THE REGION ON TUESDAY.

THE MODERATING TREND WILL START ON SATURDAY AFTER A COLD COLD COLD
MORNING. MID LEVEL WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A CLIPPER LOW PRESSURE
SHOULD BRING MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INTO OUR CWA, ESPECIALLY
NORTH. IN SPITE OF THIS, WE WENT TOWARD THE HIGHER SET OF STAT
GUIDANCE. TODAY (FRIDAY) WILL BE A GOOD LITMUS TEST IF STAT
GUIDANCE COLD BIAS IN SPITE OF AMPLE SNOW COVER CONTINUES. AS FAR
AS SNOW SHOWERS, THERE HAS NOT BEEN MUCH OF A CHANGE TO THE
GEOGRAPHICAL EXTENT OF MEASURABLE PCPN REACHING DEEPER INTO OUR
CWA. ONLY CHANGE WE MADE, WAS TO START THE LOW CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS FAR NORTH ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE WEAK COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLIPPER SHOULD PASS THROUGH
OUR CWA ON SATURDAY NIGHT. NOT MUCH DEEP MOISTURE TO GENERATE
SHOWERS. LOW CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WAS KEPT FAR NORTH. MODELS ARE
INDICATING MORE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS (POSSIBLY TRAPPED UNDER AN
INVERSION NORTH) AROUND AND THIS IS REASON FOR MUCH HIGHER MINS.

ON SUNDAY, SOME WEAK PVA AND A JET STREAK ARE PREDICTED TO PASS
ACROSS OUR CWA, LEANING NORTH. STILL TOO EARLY TO TELL IF WE HAVE
THE GEOGRAPHY STRAIGHT, THE JET STREAK ITSELF LOOKS MORE CERTAIN. WE
PUT IN A CHANCE OF FLURRIES NORTH AS A PROXY. WHILE SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST LACK OF ICE COULD BE A PROBLEM (ESPECIALLY ON THE MOISTURE
TRAPPED NAM SOUNDINGS), WESTERLY WINDS ARE NORMALLY NOT A FREEZING
DRIZZLE DIRECTION IN OUR AREA. WHILE COLDER AIR (RELATIVE TO
SATURDAY) IS PREDICTED TO MOVE INTO OUR AREA, IT WARMS BEYOND
SATURDAY AT 925MB. THUS REASON FOR BUMP UP IN MAX TEMPS.

A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BRIEFLY BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY. BY
THEN AIR MASS IS EVEN SLIGHTLY WARMER AND WE EXPECT THE SNOW COVER
TO BE LOSING ITS EFFECTIVENESS ON SLOWING THE RISE OF MAX TEMPS.

CHANGE THEN COMES LATE MONDAY NIGHT AND MORE SO TUESDAY AS ALL THE
RUNS HAVE TRENDED NORTH WITH A LOW FORMING OFF THE OLD STALLED
FRONT. UNLESS PCPN FLIES IN ON MONDAY NIGHT, THERMALLY IT LOOKS WARM
ENOUGH FOR RAIN, ESPECIALLY GIVEN SOUTH IS FAVORED OVER NORTH.
FASTER TIMING COUPLED WITH A MORE NORTHERN EXTENSION MIGHT BE
PROBLEMATIC FOR PTYPE. IN ITS WAKE, AN EVEN MILDER DAY IS
PREDICTED FOR WEDNESDAY BEFORE A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BRINGS COLDER AIR BACK INTO OUR CWA POSSIBLY AS SOON AS THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
IN FROM THE WEST TODAY AND SKIES WILL BE MAINLY CLR THIS MORNING AND
THEN SOME INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS FOR THE AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE
NORTHERLY OR NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KTS EARLY TODAY THEN GO LIGHT
WEST/SOUTHWEST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS DUE MAINLY
TO CIGS AS A WEAK SYSTEM MOVES BY LATER SATURDAY. HOWEVER,
ANY PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF THE
TERMINALS.

SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...VFR OVERALL.

TUESDAY...CHANCE OF MVFR CONDITIONS AT SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND
TERMINALS. PTYPE SHOULD BE RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL CONTINUE WITH THE SCA FLAG FOR THE OCEAN WATERS AND SRN DEL
BAY FOR THE MORNING. WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST 25 TO 30 KTS EARLY THIS
MORNING...WITH A FEW 30 TO 35 KNT GUSTS AT THE (HIGHER) BRND1
PLATFORM. WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH  LATER THIS MORNING AS HIGH
PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVERHEAD. SEAS 4 TO 6 FT ON THE OCEAN THIS
MORNING...DIMINISHING THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS A CHC FOR FREEZING
SPRAY TODAY.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS
WILL INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY.
THERE IS A CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

TUESDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
PENDING THE PROXIMITY OF THE TRACK OF A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PREDICTED TO FORM OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RER`S POSTED FOR KILG AND KACY...BOTH 7.0 INCHES.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/GORSE
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 060224
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH
WILL THEN SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STORM OVER: PNS AND RER`S ARE POSTED. THE PNS FOR SNOW WILL
FURTHER UPDATE OVERNIGHT.

HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF INCREASED WIND.
RECORD LOWS STILL APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF OCCURRING AT
KABE AND KRDG, PROVIDED LATE DECOUPLING OCCURS NEAR SUNRISE.

THE 18Z NAM WAS MUCH BETTER AT AT ATTEMPTING TO DEPICT THE
GUSTINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z NAM SUGGESTS WIND
GUSTS WILL INCREASE 5 KT TOWARD 06Z BEFORE DECOUPLING ATTEMPTS TO
BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE AROUND 09Z.

AT 02Z, THE BACKEDGE OF THE THICK HIGH CLOUD DECK WAS MOVING EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE BLENDED MET/MAV AND ADDITIONALLY FOR
THE E PA AND NNJ COUNTRYSIDE ONLY, ADDED THE MODELED GFS TWO
METER TEMPERATURES.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION, WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO
ADVISORY THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND
MARGINAL VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE
MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL COLD.
DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...VFR CIGS BECOME VFR CLEAR FM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUST AROUND 20 KT
DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNRISE.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDING THE SCA ALONG LOWER DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. WE MAY NEED TO ADD A SHORT FUSE SCA FOR UPPER DE BAY AROUND
05Z?  SCA CONTINUES ALONG THE ALTC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE THE 9 PM FORECAST HAS KRDG AND KABE BREAKING THEIR RECORD LOW
FRIDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RER`S POSTED FOR KILG AND KACY...BOTH 7.0 INCHES.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG  923
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/O`HARA 923
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE/O`HARA 923
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 060224
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH
WILL THEN SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STORM OVER: PNS AND RER`S ARE POSTED. THE PNS FOR SNOW WILL
FURTHER UPDATE OVERNIGHT.

HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF INCREASED WIND.
RECORD LOWS STILL APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF OCCURRING AT
KABE AND KRDG, PROVIDED LATE DECOUPLING OCCURS NEAR SUNRISE.

THE 18Z NAM WAS MUCH BETTER AT AT ATTEMPTING TO DEPICT THE
GUSTINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z NAM SUGGESTS WIND
GUSTS WILL INCREASE 5 KT TOWARD 06Z BEFORE DECOUPLING ATTEMPTS TO
BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE AROUND 09Z.

AT 02Z, THE BACKEDGE OF THE THICK HIGH CLOUD DECK WAS MOVING EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE BLENDED MET/MAV AND ADDITIONALLY FOR
THE E PA AND NNJ COUNTRYSIDE ONLY, ADDED THE MODELED GFS TWO
METER TEMPERATURES.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION, WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO
ADVISORY THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND
MARGINAL VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE
MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL COLD.
DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...VFR CIGS BECOME VFR CLEAR FM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUST AROUND 20 KT
DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNRISE.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDING THE SCA ALONG LOWER DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. WE MAY NEED TO ADD A SHORT FUSE SCA FOR UPPER DE BAY AROUND
05Z?  SCA CONTINUES ALONG THE ALTC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE THE 9 PM FORECAST HAS KRDG AND KABE BREAKING THEIR RECORD LOW
FRIDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RER`S POSTED FOR KILG AND KACY...BOTH 7.0 INCHES.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG  923
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/O`HARA 923
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE/O`HARA 923
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 060224
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH
WILL THEN SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STORM OVER: PNS AND RER`S ARE POSTED. THE PNS FOR SNOW WILL
FURTHER UPDATE OVERNIGHT.

HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF INCREASED WIND.
RECORD LOWS STILL APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF OCCURRING AT
KABE AND KRDG, PROVIDED LATE DECOUPLING OCCURS NEAR SUNRISE.

THE 18Z NAM WAS MUCH BETTER AT AT ATTEMPTING TO DEPICT THE
GUSTINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z NAM SUGGESTS WIND
GUSTS WILL INCREASE 5 KT TOWARD 06Z BEFORE DECOUPLING ATTEMPTS TO
BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE AROUND 09Z.

AT 02Z, THE BACKEDGE OF THE THICK HIGH CLOUD DECK WAS MOVING EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE BLENDED MET/MAV AND ADDITIONALLY FOR
THE E PA AND NNJ COUNTRYSIDE ONLY, ADDED THE MODELED GFS TWO
METER TEMPERATURES.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION, WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO
ADVISORY THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND
MARGINAL VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE
MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL COLD.
DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...VFR CIGS BECOME VFR CLEAR FM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUST AROUND 20 KT
DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNRISE.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDING THE SCA ALONG LOWER DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. WE MAY NEED TO ADD A SHORT FUSE SCA FOR UPPER DE BAY AROUND
05Z?  SCA CONTINUES ALONG THE ALTC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE THE 9 PM FORECAST HAS KRDG AND KABE BREAKING THEIR RECORD LOW
FRIDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RER`S POSTED FOR KILG AND KACY...BOTH 7.0 INCHES.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG  923
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/O`HARA 923
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE/O`HARA 923
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060224
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH
WILL THEN SETTLE TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A
COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN
BUILD INTO THE AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD
FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STORM OVER: PNS AND RER`S ARE POSTED. THE PNS FOR SNOW WILL
FURTHER UPDATE OVERNIGHT.

HAVE RAISED TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT BECAUSE OF INCREASED WIND.
RECORD LOWS STILL APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF OCCURRING AT
KABE AND KRDG, PROVIDED LATE DECOUPLING OCCURS NEAR SUNRISE.

THE 18Z NAM WAS MUCH BETTER AT AT ATTEMPTING TO DEPICT THE
GUSTINESS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE 00Z NAM SUGGESTS WIND
GUSTS WILL INCREASE 5 KT TOWARD 06Z BEFORE DECOUPLING ATTEMPTS TO
BECOME MORE EXTENSIVE AROUND 09Z.

AT 02Z, THE BACKEDGE OF THE THICK HIGH CLOUD DECK WAS MOVING EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS.

LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE BLENDED MET/MAV AND ADDITIONALLY FOR
THE E PA AND NNJ COUNTRYSIDE ONLY, ADDED THE MODELED GFS TWO
METER TEMPERATURES.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL TO NEAR ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE
REGION, WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO
ADVISORY THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND
MARGINAL VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE
MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL COLD.
DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...VFR CIGS BECOME VFR CLEAR FM WEST TO EAST
BETWEEN 3Z AND 6Z. NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUST AROUND 20 KT
DIMINISHING TOWARD SUNRISE.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
EXTENDING THE SCA ALONG LOWER DELAWARE BAY THROUGH MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. WE MAY NEED TO ADD A SHORT FUSE SCA FOR UPPER DE BAY AROUND
05Z?  SCA CONTINUES ALONG THE ALTC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.

FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE THE 9 PM FORECAST HAS KRDG AND KABE BREAKING THEIR RECORD LOW
FRIDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RER`S POSTED FOR KILG AND KACY...BOTH 7.0 INCHES.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG  923
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/O`HARA 923
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE/O`HARA 923
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
802 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
745 PM: CANCELLED MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF WARNING FROM MD THRU
CENTRAL DE AND SE NJ. AT 9 PM WILL EXPIRE SUSSEX COUNTY DE (BLOWING
SNOW DOWN IN S DE).

YOU SHOULD HAVE THE RER`S NOW AND THE 731 PNS HAS UPDATED WITH
MOST OF THE REPORTS. MORE WILL BE COMING AND UPDATING AROUND 9 PM
THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME
BIAS WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...VFR CIGS VFR CLEAR FM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
3 AND 6 Z. NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
ADDED AN SCA TO LOWER DELAWARE BAY AROUND 722 PM. SCA CONTINUES
ALONG THE ALTC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL REVIEW ALL THE SCA MATERIAL AT 9 PM.

FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RER`S POSTED FOR KILG AND KACY...BOTH 7.0 INCHES.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 801
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 801
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...801



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
802 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
745 PM: CANCELLED MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF WARNING FROM MD THRU
CENTRAL DE AND SE NJ. AT 9 PM WILL EXPIRE SUSSEX COUNTY DE (BLOWING
SNOW DOWN IN S DE).

YOU SHOULD HAVE THE RER`S NOW AND THE 731 PNS HAS UPDATED WITH
MOST OF THE REPORTS. MORE WILL BE COMING AND UPDATING AROUND 9 PM
THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME
BIAS WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...VFR CIGS VFR CLEAR FM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
3 AND 6 Z. NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
ADDED AN SCA TO LOWER DELAWARE BAY AROUND 722 PM. SCA CONTINUES
ALONG THE ALTC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL REVIEW ALL THE SCA MATERIAL AT 9 PM.

FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RER`S POSTED FOR KILG AND KACY...BOTH 7.0 INCHES.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 801
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 801
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...801




000
FXUS61 KPHI 060102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
802 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
745 PM: CANCELLED MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF WARNING FROM MD THRU
CENTRAL DE AND SE NJ. AT 9 PM WILL EXPIRE SUSSEX COUNTY DE (BLOWING
SNOW DOWN IN S DE).

YOU SHOULD HAVE THE RER`S NOW AND THE 731 PNS HAS UPDATED WITH
MOST OF THE REPORTS. MORE WILL BE COMING AND UPDATING AROUND 9 PM
THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME
BIAS WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...VFR CIGS VFR CLEAR FM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
3 AND 6 Z. NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
ADDED AN SCA TO LOWER DELAWARE BAY AROUND 722 PM. SCA CONTINUES
ALONG THE ALTC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL REVIEW ALL THE SCA MATERIAL AT 9 PM.

FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RER`S POSTED FOR KILG AND KACY...BOTH 7.0 INCHES.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 801
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 801
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...801



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060102
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
802 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
745 PM: CANCELLED MOST OF THE REMAINDER OF WARNING FROM MD THRU
CENTRAL DE AND SE NJ. AT 9 PM WILL EXPIRE SUSSEX COUNTY DE (BLOWING
SNOW DOWN IN S DE).

YOU SHOULD HAVE THE RER`S NOW AND THE 731 PNS HAS UPDATED WITH
MOST OF THE REPORTS. MORE WILL BE COMING AND UPDATING AROUND 9 PM
THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME
BIAS WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...VFR CIGS VFR CLEAR FM WEST TO EAST BETWEEN
3 AND 6 Z. NORTH-NORTHWEST WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE DAY.
LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
ADDED AN SCA TO LOWER DELAWARE BAY AROUND 722 PM. SCA CONTINUES
ALONG THE ALTC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL REVIEW ALL THE SCA MATERIAL AT 9 PM.

FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RER`S POSTED FOR KILG AND KACY...BOTH 7.0 INCHES.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 801
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 801
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...801




000
FXUS61 KPHI 060032
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
732 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
650 PM HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT: CANCELLED I-95 CORRIDOR; BUT EXTENDED
SE NJ THROUGH CENTRAL DE AND A PORTION OF MD E ASHORE THROUGH 01Z;
AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE HAD TO EXTEND THROUGH 02Z, WHERE TOO MUCH
SNOW ON RADAR.  ALL PRODUCTS POSTED.

CONTINUED MODIFIED CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME
BIAS WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS BY 01Z/6 FOLLOWED BY VFR
CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 05Z. NORTH- NORTHWEST
WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES
VFR CIGS THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 02Z-04Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE
DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
ADDED AN SCA TO LOWER DELAWARE BAY AROUND 722 PM. SCA CONTINUES
ALONG THE ALTC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL REVIEW ALL THE SCA MATERIAL AT 9 PM.

FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

ANOTHER RECORD EVENT REPORT WILL UPDATE AROUND 745 PM. KACY IS
ALREADY POSTED. KILG NEEDS AN UPDATE FOR 7 TOTAL.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ020>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 732
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 732
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060032
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
732 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
650 PM HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT: CANCELLED I-95 CORRIDOR; BUT EXTENDED
SE NJ THROUGH CENTRAL DE AND A PORTION OF MD E ASHORE THROUGH 01Z;
AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE HAD TO EXTEND THROUGH 02Z, WHERE TOO MUCH
SNOW ON RADAR.  ALL PRODUCTS POSTED.

CONTINUED MODIFIED CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME
BIAS WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS BY 01Z/6 FOLLOWED BY VFR
CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 05Z. NORTH- NORTHWEST
WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES
VFR CIGS THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 02Z-04Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE
DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
ADDED AN SCA TO LOWER DELAWARE BAY AROUND 722 PM. SCA CONTINUES
ALONG THE ALTC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL REVIEW ALL THE SCA MATERIAL AT 9 PM.

FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

ANOTHER RECORD EVENT REPORT WILL UPDATE AROUND 745 PM. KACY IS
ALREADY POSTED. KILG NEEDS AN UPDATE FOR 7 TOTAL.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ020>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 732
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 732
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 060032
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
732 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
650 PM HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT: CANCELLED I-95 CORRIDOR; BUT EXTENDED
SE NJ THROUGH CENTRAL DE AND A PORTION OF MD E ASHORE THROUGH 01Z;
AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE HAD TO EXTEND THROUGH 02Z, WHERE TOO MUCH
SNOW ON RADAR.  ALL PRODUCTS POSTED.

CONTINUED MODIFIED CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME
BIAS WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS BY 01Z/6 FOLLOWED BY VFR
CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 05Z. NORTH- NORTHWEST
WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES
VFR CIGS THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 02Z-04Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE
DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
ADDED AN SCA TO LOWER DELAWARE BAY AROUND 722 PM. SCA CONTINUES
ALONG THE ALTC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL REVIEW ALL THE SCA MATERIAL AT 9 PM.

FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

ANOTHER RECORD EVENT REPORT WILL UPDATE AROUND 745 PM. KACY IS
ALREADY POSTED. KILG NEEDS AN UPDATE FOR 7 TOTAL.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ020>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 732
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 732
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060032
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
732 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
650 PM HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT: CANCELLED I-95 CORRIDOR; BUT EXTENDED
SE NJ THROUGH CENTRAL DE AND A PORTION OF MD E ASHORE THROUGH 01Z;
AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE HAD TO EXTEND THROUGH 02Z, WHERE TOO MUCH
SNOW ON RADAR.  ALL PRODUCTS POSTED.

CONTINUED MODIFIED CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME
BIAS WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS BY 01Z/6 FOLLOWED BY VFR
CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 05Z. NORTH- NORTHWEST
WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES
VFR CIGS THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 02Z-04Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE
DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
ADDED AN SCA TO LOWER DELAWARE BAY AROUND 722 PM. SCA CONTINUES
ALONG THE ALTC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WILL REVIEW ALL THE SCA MATERIAL AT 9 PM.

FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

ANOTHER RECORD EVENT REPORT WILL UPDATE AROUND 745 PM. KACY IS
ALREADY POSTED. KILG NEEDS AN UPDATE FOR 7 TOTAL.

PHL HAD 7.5 AND ALLENTOWN 6.7.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ020>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 732
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 732
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 060002
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
702 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
650 PM HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT: CANCELLED I-95 CORRIDOR; BUT EXTENDED
SE NJ THROUGH CENTRAL DE AND A PORTION OF MD E ASHORE THROUGH 01Z;
AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE HAD TO EXTEND THROUGH 02Z, WHERE TOO MUCH
SNOW ON RADAR.  ALL PRODUCTS POSTED.

CONTINUED MODIFIED CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME
BIAS WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS BY 01Z/6 FOLLOWED BY VFR
CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 05Z. NORTH- NORTHWEST
WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES
VFR CIGS THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 02Z-04Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE
DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL UPDATE AROUND 730 PM KACY AND KILG.
WE MAY NEED OTHERS AT THAT TIME.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ020>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 701
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 701
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060002
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
702 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
650 PM HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT: CANCELLED I-95 CORRIDOR; BUT EXTENDED
SE NJ THROUGH CENTRAL DE AND A PORTION OF MD E ASHORE THROUGH 01Z;
AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE HAD TO EXTEND THROUGH 02Z, WHERE TOO MUCH
SNOW ON RADAR.  ALL PRODUCTS POSTED.

CONTINUED MODIFIED CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME
BIAS WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS BY 01Z/6 FOLLOWED BY VFR
CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 05Z. NORTH- NORTHWEST
WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES
VFR CIGS THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 02Z-04Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE
DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL UPDATE AROUND 730 PM KACY AND KILG.
WE MAY NEED OTHERS AT THAT TIME.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ020>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 701
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 701
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 060002
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
702 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
650 PM HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT: CANCELLED I-95 CORRIDOR; BUT EXTENDED
SE NJ THROUGH CENTRAL DE AND A PORTION OF MD E ASHORE THROUGH 01Z;
AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE HAD TO EXTEND THROUGH 02Z, WHERE TOO MUCH
SNOW ON RADAR.  ALL PRODUCTS POSTED.

CONTINUED MODIFIED CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME
BIAS WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS BY 01Z/6 FOLLOWED BY VFR
CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 05Z. NORTH- NORTHWEST
WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES
VFR CIGS THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 02Z-04Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE
DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL UPDATE AROUND 730 PM KACY AND KILG.
WE MAY NEED OTHERS AT THAT TIME.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ020>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 701
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 701
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060002
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
702 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
650 PM HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT: CANCELLED I-95 CORRIDOR; BUT EXTENDED
SE NJ THROUGH CENTRAL DE AND A PORTION OF MD E ASHORE THROUGH 01Z;
AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE HAD TO EXTEND THROUGH 02Z, WHERE TOO MUCH
SNOW ON RADAR.  ALL PRODUCTS POSTED.

CONTINUED MODIFIED CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME
BIAS WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS BY 01Z/6 FOLLOWED BY VFR
CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 05Z. NORTH- NORTHWEST
WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES
VFR CIGS THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 02Z-04Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE
DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL UPDATE AROUND 730 PM KACY AND KILG.
WE MAY NEED OTHERS AT THAT TIME.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ020>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 701
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 701
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060002
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
702 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
650 PM HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT: CANCELLED I-95 CORRIDOR; BUT EXTENDED
SE NJ THROUGH CENTRAL DE AND A PORTION OF MD E ASHORE THROUGH 01Z;
AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE HAD TO EXTEND THROUGH 02Z, WHERE TOO MUCH
SNOW ON RADAR.  ALL PRODUCTS POSTED.

CONTINUED MODIFIED CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME
BIAS WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS BY 01Z/6 FOLLOWED BY VFR
CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 05Z. NORTH- NORTHWEST
WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES
VFR CIGS THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 02Z-04Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE
DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL UPDATE AROUND 730 PM KACY AND KILG.
WE MAY NEED OTHERS AT THAT TIME.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ020>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 701
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 701
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 060002
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
702 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
650 PM HEADLINE ADJUSTMENT: CANCELLED I-95 CORRIDOR; BUT EXTENDED
SE NJ THROUGH CENTRAL DE AND A PORTION OF MD E ASHORE THROUGH 01Z;
AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE HAD TO EXTEND THROUGH 02Z, WHERE TOO MUCH
SNOW ON RADAR.  ALL PRODUCTS POSTED.

CONTINUED MODIFIED CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME
BIAS WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS BY 01Z/6 FOLLOWED BY VFR
CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 05Z. NORTH- NORTHWEST
WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING TAF SITES
VFR CIGS THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 02Z-04Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT LATE IN THE
DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL UPDATE AROUND 730 PM KACY AND KILG.
WE MAY NEED OTHERS AT THAT TIME.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ020>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ015-
     019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 701
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 701
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 052302
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
602 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
630PM ESTF SENT AROUND 550 PM WITH WARNING CANCELLATION. NEXT
EXPIRE WILL OCCUR AT 650 PM. STORM IS WINDING DOWN. WE MODIFIED
THE CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL. WE ENDED THE
SNOW PER THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE HRRR.


FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND THE PHILADELPHIA METRO REGION, STORM
ENDS BY 7 PM.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY, THE CHANGEOVER WAS SLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CUT INTO THE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
AND SLEET. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 700MB FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ARE TAKING PLACE RESULTING IN HEAVIER BANDING, SO NOT A
DRASTIC REDUCTION IN TOTALS. SUSSEX AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES MAY HAVE
THE HARDEST TIME REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4-6 OR SO) WITH AREAS
FURTHER NORTH ENDING UP WITH 6 INCHES OR SO.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS AROUND 00Z/6 FOLLOWED
BY VFR CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 04X. NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING
TAF SITES VFR CIGS WITH ANY REMAINING 4MI FLURRIES ENDING BY 00Z
AND THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 01Z-03Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL UPDATE AROUND 730 PM KACY AND KILG.
WE MAY NEED OTHERS AT THAT TIME.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ013-
     014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 601
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 601
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA 601
CLIMATE...601




000
FXUS61 KPHI 052302
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
602 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
630PM ESTF SENT AROUND 550 PM WITH WARNING CANCELLATION. NEXT
EXPIRE WILL OCCUR AT 650 PM. STORM IS WINDING DOWN. WE MODIFIED
THE CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL. WE ENDED THE
SNOW PER THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE HRRR.


FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND THE PHILADELPHIA METRO REGION, STORM
ENDS BY 7 PM.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY, THE CHANGEOVER WAS SLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CUT INTO THE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
AND SLEET. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 700MB FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ARE TAKING PLACE RESULTING IN HEAVIER BANDING, SO NOT A
DRASTIC REDUCTION IN TOTALS. SUSSEX AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES MAY HAVE
THE HARDEST TIME REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4-6 OR SO) WITH AREAS
FURTHER NORTH ENDING UP WITH 6 INCHES OR SO.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS AROUND 00Z/6 FOLLOWED
BY VFR CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 04X. NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING
TAF SITES VFR CIGS WITH ANY REMAINING 4MI FLURRIES ENDING BY 00Z
AND THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 01Z-03Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL UPDATE AROUND 730 PM KACY AND KILG.
WE MAY NEED OTHERS AT THAT TIME.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ013-
     014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 601
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 601
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA 601
CLIMATE...601




000
FXUS61 KPHI 052302
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
602 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
630PM ESTF SENT AROUND 550 PM WITH WARNING CANCELLATION. NEXT
EXPIRE WILL OCCUR AT 650 PM. STORM IS WINDING DOWN. WE MODIFIED
THE CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL. WE ENDED THE
SNOW PER THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE HRRR.


FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND THE PHILADELPHIA METRO REGION, STORM
ENDS BY 7 PM.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY, THE CHANGEOVER WAS SLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CUT INTO THE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
AND SLEET. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 700MB FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ARE TAKING PLACE RESULTING IN HEAVIER BANDING, SO NOT A
DRASTIC REDUCTION IN TOTALS. SUSSEX AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES MAY HAVE
THE HARDEST TIME REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4-6 OR SO) WITH AREAS
FURTHER NORTH ENDING UP WITH 6 INCHES OR SO.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS AROUND 00Z/6 FOLLOWED
BY VFR CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 04X. NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING
TAF SITES VFR CIGS WITH ANY REMAINING 4MI FLURRIES ENDING BY 00Z
AND THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 01Z-03Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL UPDATE AROUND 730 PM KACY AND KILG.
WE MAY NEED OTHERS AT THAT TIME.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ013-
     014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 601
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 601
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA 601
CLIMATE...601




000
FXUS61 KPHI 052302
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
602 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
630PM ESTF SENT AROUND 550 PM WITH WARNING CANCELLATION. NEXT
EXPIRE WILL OCCUR AT 650 PM. STORM IS WINDING DOWN. WE MODIFIED
THE CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL. WE ENDED THE
SNOW PER THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE HRRR.


FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND THE PHILADELPHIA METRO REGION, STORM
ENDS BY 7 PM.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY, THE CHANGEOVER WAS SLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CUT INTO THE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
AND SLEET. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 700MB FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ARE TAKING PLACE RESULTING IN HEAVIER BANDING, SO NOT A
DRASTIC REDUCTION IN TOTALS. SUSSEX AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES MAY HAVE
THE HARDEST TIME REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4-6 OR SO) WITH AREAS
FURTHER NORTH ENDING UP WITH 6 INCHES OR SO.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS AROUND 00Z/6 FOLLOWED
BY VFR CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 04X. NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING
TAF SITES VFR CIGS WITH ANY REMAINING 4MI FLURRIES ENDING BY 00Z
AND THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 01Z-03Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL UPDATE AROUND 730 PM KACY AND KILG.
WE MAY NEED OTHERS AT THAT TIME.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ013-
     014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 601
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 601
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA 601
CLIMATE...601




000
FXUS61 KPHI 052302
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
602 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
630PM ESTF SENT AROUND 550 PM WITH WARNING CANCELLATION. NEXT
EXPIRE WILL OCCUR AT 650 PM. STORM IS WINDING DOWN. WE MODIFIED
THE CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL. WE ENDED THE
SNOW PER THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE HRRR.


FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND THE PHILADELPHIA METRO REGION, STORM
ENDS BY 7 PM.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY, THE CHANGEOVER WAS SLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CUT INTO THE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
AND SLEET. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 700MB FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ARE TAKING PLACE RESULTING IN HEAVIER BANDING, SO NOT A
DRASTIC REDUCTION IN TOTALS. SUSSEX AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES MAY HAVE
THE HARDEST TIME REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4-6 OR SO) WITH AREAS
FURTHER NORTH ENDING UP WITH 6 INCHES OR SO.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS AROUND 00Z/6 FOLLOWED
BY VFR CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 04X. NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING
TAF SITES VFR CIGS WITH ANY REMAINING 4MI FLURRIES ENDING BY 00Z
AND THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 01Z-03Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL UPDATE AROUND 730 PM KACY AND KILG.
WE MAY NEED OTHERS AT THAT TIME.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ013-
     014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 601
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 601
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA 601
CLIMATE...601



000
FXUS61 KPHI 052302
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
602 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
630PM ESTF SENT AROUND 550 PM WITH WARNING CANCELLATION. NEXT
EXPIRE WILL OCCUR AT 650 PM. STORM IS WINDING DOWN. WE MODIFIED
THE CALL TO ACTION FOR MORE SAFETY ON SNOW REMOVAL. WE ENDED THE
SNOW PER THE LATEST VERSIONS OF THE HRRR.


FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND THE PHILADELPHIA METRO REGION, STORM
ENDS BY 7 PM.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY, THE CHANGEOVER WAS SLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CUT INTO THE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW
AND SLEET. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 700MB FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING ARE TAKING PLACE RESULTING IN HEAVIER BANDING, SO NOT A
DRASTIC REDUCTION IN TOTALS. SUSSEX AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES MAY HAVE
THE HARDEST TIME REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4-6 OR SO) WITH AREAS
FURTHER NORTH ENDING UP WITH 6 INCHES OR SO.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW
POINTS AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE
POSSIBLE, PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT ARE COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER
TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW
COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...IFR/LIFR SNOW AT KMIV AND KACY ENDS AROUND 00Z/6 FOLLOWED
BY VFR CIGS FOR A FEW HRS THEN THEN VFR CLEAR AFTER 04X. NORTH-
NORTHWEST WIND GUST 20 KT EARLY THEN DIMINISHES. FOR THE REMAINING
TAF SITES VFR CIGS WITH ANY REMAINING 4MI FLURRIES ENDING BY 00Z
AND THEN BECOMING VFR CLEAR 01Z-03Z.

FRIDAY...VFR CLEAR WITH CIRRUS LATE IN THE DAY. LIGHT WIND.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL UPDATE AROUND 730 PM KACY AND KILG.
WE MAY NEED OTHERS AT THAT TIME.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF EASTERN
PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ013-
     014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GAINES 601
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA 601
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA 601
CLIMATE...601




000
FXUS61 KPHI 052131
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
431 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ, SNOW HAS ENDED AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF
A FEW INCHES OCCURRED WITH A SHARP CUTOFF AS YOU GO NORTH IN THIS
REGION.

FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY, SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY SUNSET AND A WINTER
STORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 7PM. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF AROUND SIX
INCHES HAVE COME IN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS AND THESE HAVE BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE STORM TOTAL WEB MAP.

FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND THE PHILADELPHIA METRO REGION, A COUPLE
MORE HOURS OF MODERATE, BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
ENDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS 6-8, ISOLATED
HIGHER.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY, THE CHANGEOVER WAS SLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CUT INTO THE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 700MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ARE TAKING PLACE RESULTING IN HEAVIER BANDING, SO NOT A DRASTIC
REDUCTION IN TOTALS. SUSSEX AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES  MAY HAVE THE
HARDEST TIME REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4-6 OR SO) WITH AREAS
FURTHER NORTH ENDING UP WITH 6 INCHES OR SO.

FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW MAINLY USED THE RAP AND WPC QPF AS A GUIDELINE
AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT OBS TO MAKE THE SNOW TOTAL FORECASTS
REFERENCED ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW POINTS
AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE,
PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM
THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT AT ALL TAF SITES INTO
THE EVENING WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. KRDG AND KABE WILL BE FIRST TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 00Z 3/6. OTHER TAF SITES WILL FOLLOW WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH KACY LAST AROUND 03Z. NORTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL INTO THE EVENING,
POTENTIALLY LASTING LONGER THAN CURRENT TAFS INDICATE. OVERNIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN SLIGHTLY WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

RECORD EVENT REPORTS WILL BE SENT SHORTLY FOR KACY AND KILG AND
THOSE WILL BE UPDATED AT 7 PM TONIGHT. WE MAY NEED OTHERS LATER
THIS EVENING.

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

FWIW...WATER EQUIVALENCE OF TOTAL SNOW DEPTH IN PORTIONS OF
EASTERN PA IS NOW WELL OVER 3 INCHES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG 430P



000
FXUS61 KPHI 052038
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ, SNOW HAS ENDED AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF
A FEW INCHES OCCURRED WITH A SHARP CUTOFF AS YOU GO NORTH IN THIS
REGION.

FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY, SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY SUNSET AND A WINTER
STORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 7PM. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF AROUND SIX
INCHES HAVE COME IN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS AND THESE HAVE BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE STORM TOTAL WEB MAP.

FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND THE PHILADELPHIA METRO REGION, A COUPLE
MORE HOURS OF MODERATE, BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
ENDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS 6-8, ISOLATED
HIGHER.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY, THE CHANGEOVER WAS SLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CUT INTO THE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 700MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ARE TAKING PLACE RESULTING IN HEAVIER BANDING, SO NOT A DRASTIC
REDUCTION IN TOTALS. SUSSEX AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES  MAY HAVE THE
HARDEST TIME REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4-6 OR SO) WITH AREAS
FURTHER NORTH ENDING UP WITH 6 INCHES OR SO.

FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW MAINLY USED THE RAP AND WPC QPF AS A GUIDELINE
AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT OBS TO MAKE THE SNOW TOTAL FORECASTS
REFERENCED ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW POINTS
AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE,
PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM
THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT AT ALL TAF SITES INTO
THE EVENING WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. KRDG AND KABE WILL BE FIRST TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 00Z 3/6. OTHER TAF SITES WILL FOLLOW WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH KACY LAST AROUND 03Z. NORTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL INTO THE EVENING,
POTENTIALLY LASTING LONGER THAN CURRENT TAFS INDICATE. OVERNIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN SLIGHTLY WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 052038
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ, SNOW HAS ENDED AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF
A FEW INCHES OCCURRED WITH A SHARP CUTOFF AS YOU GO NORTH IN THIS
REGION.

FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY, SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY SUNSET AND A WINTER
STORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 7PM. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF AROUND SIX
INCHES HAVE COME IN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS AND THESE HAVE BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE STORM TOTAL WEB MAP.

FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND THE PHILADELPHIA METRO REGION, A COUPLE
MORE HOURS OF MODERATE, BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
ENDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS 6-8, ISOLATED
HIGHER.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY, THE CHANGEOVER WAS SLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CUT INTO THE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 700MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ARE TAKING PLACE RESULTING IN HEAVIER BANDING, SO NOT A DRASTIC
REDUCTION IN TOTALS. SUSSEX AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES  MAY HAVE THE
HARDEST TIME REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4-6 OR SO) WITH AREAS
FURTHER NORTH ENDING UP WITH 6 INCHES OR SO.

FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW MAINLY USED THE RAP AND WPC QPF AS A GUIDELINE
AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT OBS TO MAKE THE SNOW TOTAL FORECASTS
REFERENCED ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW POINTS
AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE,
PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM
THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT AT ALL TAF SITES INTO
THE EVENING WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. KRDG AND KABE WILL BE FIRST TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 00Z 3/6. OTHER TAF SITES WILL FOLLOW WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH KACY LAST AROUND 03Z. NORTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL INTO THE EVENING,
POTENTIALLY LASTING LONGER THAN CURRENT TAFS INDICATE. OVERNIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN SLIGHTLY WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 052038
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ, SNOW HAS ENDED AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF
A FEW INCHES OCCURRED WITH A SHARP CUTOFF AS YOU GO NORTH IN THIS
REGION.

FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY, SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY SUNSET AND A WINTER
STORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 7PM. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF AROUND SIX
INCHES HAVE COME IN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS AND THESE HAVE BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE STORM TOTAL WEB MAP.

FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND THE PHILADELPHIA METRO REGION, A COUPLE
MORE HOURS OF MODERATE, BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
ENDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS 6-8, ISOLATED
HIGHER.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY, THE CHANGEOVER WAS SLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CUT INTO THE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 700MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ARE TAKING PLACE RESULTING IN HEAVIER BANDING, SO NOT A DRASTIC
REDUCTION IN TOTALS. SUSSEX AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES  MAY HAVE THE
HARDEST TIME REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4-6 OR SO) WITH AREAS
FURTHER NORTH ENDING UP WITH 6 INCHES OR SO.

FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW MAINLY USED THE RAP AND WPC QPF AS A GUIDELINE
AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT OBS TO MAKE THE SNOW TOTAL FORECASTS
REFERENCED ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW POINTS
AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE,
PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM
THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT AT ALL TAF SITES INTO
THE EVENING WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. KRDG AND KABE WILL BE FIRST TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 00Z 3/6. OTHER TAF SITES WILL FOLLOW WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH KACY LAST AROUND 03Z. NORTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL INTO THE EVENING,
POTENTIALLY LASTING LONGER THAN CURRENT TAFS INDICATE. OVERNIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN SLIGHTLY WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 052038
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
338 PM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL EXIT TO OUR EAST THIS EVENING, THEN ARCTIC HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY. THE HIGH WILL THEN SETTLE
TO OUR SOUTH ON SATURDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK TO
OUR NORTH LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
REGION ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT SCHEDULED TO ARRIVE
LATER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FOR THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST NJ, SNOW HAS ENDED AND THE WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS OF
A FEW INCHES OCCURRED WITH A SHARP CUTOFF AS YOU GO NORTH IN THIS
REGION.

FOR THE LEHIGH VALLEY, SNOW WILL BE ENDING BY SUNSET AND A WINTER
STORM WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 7PM. NUMEROUS REPORTS OF AROUND SIX
INCHES HAVE COME IN WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS AND THESE HAVE BEEN
REFLECTED IN THE STORM TOTAL WEB MAP.

FOR CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AND THE PHILADELPHIA METRO REGION, A COUPLE
MORE HOURS OF MODERATE, BRIEFLY HEAVY SNOW ARE POSSIBLE BEFORE
ENDING SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET. TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS 6-8, ISOLATED
HIGHER.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NEW JERSEY, THE CHANGEOVER WAS SLOW
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS WILL CUT INTO THE ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND
SLEET. FAVORABLE ISENTROPIC LIFT AND 700MB FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING
ARE TAKING PLACE RESULTING IN HEAVIER BANDING, SO NOT A DRASTIC
REDUCTION IN TOTALS. SUSSEX AND CAPE MAY COUNTIES  MAY HAVE THE
HARDEST TIME REACHING WARNING CRITERIA (4-6 OR SO) WITH AREAS
FURTHER NORTH ENDING UP WITH 6 INCHES OR SO.

FOR ADDITIONAL SNOW MAINLY USED THE RAP AND WPC QPF AS A GUIDELINE
AND TOOK INTO ACCOUNT CURRENT OBS TO MAKE THE SNOW TOTAL FORECASTS
REFERENCED ABOVE.

TEMPERATURES WILL TUMBLE ONCE SKIES CLEAR. THIS SHOULD TAKE PLACE
FAIRLY QUICKLY AFTER THE SNOW ENDS GIVEN A STEEP DROP IN DEW POINTS
AND CONSIDERABLE DRY AIR ADVECTION. RECORD LOWS ARE POSSIBLE,
PLEASE SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT ARE
COMPOSED OF MET/MAV AND THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM
THE GFS WHICH HAS DONE WELL AT NIGHT WITH SNOW COVER.

WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY TO FALL BELOW ZERO ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION,
WITH THE POCONOS SEEING WIND CHILLS WHICH MAY GET CLOSE TO ADVISORY
THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS. GIVEN THE LIMITED WINDOW AND MARGINAL
VALUES IN TERMS OF AND ADVISORY, WILL JUST CONTINUE MENTION IN THE
HWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
SUNNY DAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ON FRIDAY BUT STILL
COLD. DID GO A TOUCH WARMER THAN MAV/MET GIVEN THE COOL DAYTIME BIAS
WITH SNOW COVER. OTHER ELEMENTS STRAIGHT MAV/MET. CONTINUED
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS UNDER 10 MPH OR SO.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC. AS SHORT WAVE
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH THE FLOW, THIS FEATURE SHOULD AMPLIFY A LITTLE
FOR A TIME OR TWO. THIS SHOULD EVENTUALLY WEAKEN AS ENERGY EJECTS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK,
WITH A RIDGE POTENTIALLY BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST.
THIS RESULTS IN THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE ZONAL NEXT WEEK.
WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT
WITH THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. WE THEN MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS
AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE
ACROSS THE AREA, HOWEVER A DRY AIRMASS RESULTS IN NO PRECIPITATION.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA HOWEVER ITS
CENTER SLIDES TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A
GRADUAL RETURN FLOW BEING ESTABLISHED AND AFTER A VERY COLD START
SATURDAY, SOME MODERATION IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...A SHORT WAVE IS FORECAST TO TRACK NEAR THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES SUNDAY, THEN WELL TO OUR NORTH MONDAY. THIS
WILL DRIVE WEAK LOW PRESSURE WELL TO OUR NORTH, HOWEVER A COLD FRONT
IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH DURING MONDAY. IT APPEARS THAT THE
MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS FEATURE AS MUCH OF THE LIFT
OCCURS WELL TO OUR NORTH. THERE COULD BE A SNOW SHOWER THOUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, THE AIRMASS
IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO MODIFY AS THE FLOW COMES MORE FROM THE
WEST AND NOT THE NORTH.

FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD SHIFT TO OUR EAST
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND THE GREAT LAKES. LOW
PRESSURE APPEARS TO TRACK WELL TO OUR NORTH ONCE AGAIN, WITH A WARM
FRONT LIFTING MOSTLY TO OUR NORTHWEST. WHILE THE FLOW LOOKS FAIRLY
WEAK, ENOUGH WAA IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TO ALLOW FOR FURTHER
MODERATION OF THE AIRMASS WITH MANY AREAS GETTING INTO THE LOWER 50S
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ARRIVING LATE
WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER GIVEN THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW AND SHORT WAVE
ALOFT IT ALSO LOOKS TO BE MOISTURE STARVED.

FOR THURSDAY...A WEAK SURFACE HIGH IS ANTICIPATED TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA, WHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED FROM NEAR MAINE TO THE
GREAT LAKES THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. THE AIRMASS SHOULD BE MUCH
MILDER WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS GETTING INTO THE 50S. THE OCEAN AND
DELAWARE BAY ARE COLD AND IF THERE IS LIGHT ENOUGH FLOW, THEN A
COOLING AFFECT CAN BE EXPECTED CLOSER TO THE COAST.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LIFR AND IFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY BE PRESENT AT ALL TAF SITES INTO
THE EVENING WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW. KRDG AND KABE WILL BE FIRST TO
IMPROVE TO VFR BY 00Z 3/6. OTHER TAF SITES WILL FOLLOW WITH AN
IMPROVEMENT TO VFR WITH KACY LAST AROUND 03Z. NORTHERLY WINDS
BETWEEN 10 AND 15 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED AS WELL INTO THE EVENING,
POTENTIALLY LASTING LONGER THAN CURRENT TAFS INDICATE. OVERNIGHT
NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD SLACKEN SLIGHTLY WITH CONTINUED VFR
CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK SYSTEM MOVING BY
LATER SATURDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER ANY
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL. A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH
MONDAY SHOULD RESULT IN MORE CLOUDS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT IT
MOVES THROUGH DRY.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. IN ADDITION, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE SLIGHTLY THROUGH
THE EVENING HOURS OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST. THEREFORE THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS ABOVE 20 KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY STAY BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. FOR FRIDAY, WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA, HOWEVER THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE SOME FROM THE WEST-SOUTHWEST DURING SATURDAY. THERE IS A
CHC FOR SOME LIGHT FREEZING SPRAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
MORNING.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WE ARE ANTICIPATING SUB SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH MAINLY DURING
MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WITH A SNOW COVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS SETTLING
INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING WE HAVE ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909

THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

IT APPEARS THAT READING AND ATLANTIC CITY HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE
OF GETTING TO THEIR RECORD LOW SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...GAINES
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GAINES/GORSE
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 051531
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1031 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SNOW IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NJ AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA CHANGING FROM SLEET AND RAIN TO SNOW
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW IS APPROACHING
THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION. CAA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH A CONTINUING STREAM OF
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA AND ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THE 9:30
AM UPDATE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END VERY SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH HAVE ALSO BEEN
REPORTED IN SPOTS AND THESE WERE INCREASED WITH THE 9:30 AM
UPDATE.

ONTO SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA A FEW INCHES HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH
TOTALS STILL LOOKING TO AVERAGE UNDER WARNING CRITERIA.

*WE UPGRADED THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SURROUDING AREA TO A WINTER
 STORM WARNING WITH A 10:30 AM UPDATE. WE HAVE ALREADY GOTTEN
 REPORTS OF 3-5 INCHES WITH ANOTHER BAND OF MODERATE SNOW MOVING
 INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATE MORNING AREAS. NAM HAS AN ADDITIONAL.1-.25
 QPF WHICH WOULD PUSH TOTALS TO AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW.*


FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BANDS HAVE SETUP ACROSS THIS REGION WITH REPORTS OF 1
TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES PER HOUR FOR SHORT INTERVALS. THE RAP AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT THESE MESOSCALE BANDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE BUT CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THESE BANDS ARE
CAUSED BY SIGNIFICANT FRONTGENETICAL FORCING AND AMPLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT. STORM TOTALS OF 6-8 INCHES STILL LOOK ON TRACK ATTM. ALSO
PLEASE REFER TO MCD 124 FROM THE SPC AND THE SPS WE HAVE IN
EFFECT.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NJ, THE 9:30 AM UPDATE SLOWS THE
CHANGEOVER AN HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER STILL DO NOT THINK THIS WILL CUT
INTO TOTALS EXTENSIVELY ATTM. THIS IS DUE TO THE SAME MESOSCALE
BANDING SIGNATURES SINKING FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE RAP, HRRR AND 06Z 800-600 MB
FRONTGENETICAL FORCING ON THE 06Z NAM FROM EARLIER TODAY.
SNOWFALL MAY ALSO FALL AROUND AN INCH FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW BY EVENING.

ROAD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY WITH THE SNOW,
ALLOW EXTRA TIME IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE STEADY SNOWS WILL PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY EARLY THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP FROM N/W TO S/E OVERNIGHT. THE LACK OF CLOUDS LATE AND THE FRESH
SNOW COVER SHOULD PRODUCE COLD TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS FAR NORTH. WIND CHILLS MAY
DROP TO NEAR -12 TO -15 ACROSS MOUNT POCONO...BUT REMAIN MORE LIKE 0
TO -10 ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NRLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THERMALLY, BUT IT
WAS A COLD OP RUN IN COMPARISON TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OTHER
MODELS. OVERALL AFTER TODAY, THE LONG TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AND NOT MUCH
PCPN EXPECTED.

A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NOT MUCH WIND. THE
ONE CATCH IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE, EVEN
IF IT WERE STILL JANUARY. MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THE FULL SUN
MACROS AND THE HIGHER NAM STAT GUIDANCE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT WE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF GOING EITHER WITH THE LOWER
STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN AREAS OR BELOW ALL FOR MINS GIVEN WE ARE
EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE
TROF THAT MIGHT SPILL SOME CLOUDS THROUGH PART OF THE NIGHT, ONLY
REASON WE DID NOT GO EVEN LOWER.

SATURDAY THE AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL START AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
REACHES THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAA PHASE OF THE CLIPPER WHICH SHOULD SLOW TEMP RISE A
BIT. WE ARE CLOSER TO NAM STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AS BY NOW
THE GEFS MEAN IS WARMER THAN THE OP GFS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT, CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA THAT THE WEAKENING
CLIPPER MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AS OF NOW APPEARS LIGHT IF THEY MAKE
IT. SUNDAY, THE MODERATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
CLIPPER`S DEMISE SHOULD NOT BRING ANY COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND BY THEN IT MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PTYPE TO FALL AS RAIN. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEPARATE WITH ITS PREDICTED PCPN FOR NOW
REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

THEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN
(INSTEAD OF TAKING THE POLAR ROUTE) FOR A CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING WITH
CIGS/VSBYS IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE IN SNOW. THE CHANGE- OVER WILL
OCCUR BY 15Z AT ACY WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SNOW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOWER VSBYS AROUND 1/4 MILE COULD BE OBSERVED AS
WELL LOCALLY FOR SHORT INTERVALS, WHICH WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. ALSO, ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY BUT COVERAGE LOOKS LOW ENOUGH NOT TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 00-03Z AS CLOUDS CLEAR. RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE TO LIKELY TODAY.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH ALONG
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR, LOCALLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR TODAY...AND EXTEND THE EXPIRATION TIME
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS AS CAA
CONTINUES. IT APPEARS THAT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNT RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS DEL BAY.
THERE WILL BE RAIN/SNOW EARLY TODAY...THEN SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY, NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OCCURRING ON
FRIDAY MORNING TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE OUTLOOKED TO PREVAIL MAINLY DUE A COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY
WEAK PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ALSO WHERE THERE WILL BE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LEVEL, IT SHOULD BE AT TIMES WHEN THE
AIR TEMPS WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE WATER TEMPS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TODAY (IF NOT ALREADY), THE
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM ARE LESSENING.
WE ARE STILL MONITORING GAGED SITES TO CHECK FOR JAMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

ASIDE FROM ATLANTIC CITY, MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 051531
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1031 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SNOW IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NJ AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA CHANGING FROM SLEET AND RAIN TO SNOW
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW IS APPROACHING
THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION. CAA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH A CONTINUING STREAM OF
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA AND ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THE 9:30
AM UPDATE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END VERY SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH HAVE ALSO BEEN
REPORTED IN SPOTS AND THESE WERE INCREASED WITH THE 9:30 AM
UPDATE.

ONTO SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA A FEW INCHES HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH
TOTALS STILL LOOKING TO AVERAGE UNDER WARNING CRITERIA.

*WE UPGRADED THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND SURROUDING AREA TO A WINTER
 STORM WARNING WITH A 10:30 AM UPDATE. WE HAVE ALREADY GOTTEN
 REPORTS OF 3-5 INCHES WITH ANOTHER BAND OF MODERATE SNOW MOVING
 INTO THE AREA FOR THE LATE MORNING AREAS. NAM HAS AN ADDITIONAL.1-.25
 QPF WHICH WOULD PUSH TOTALS TO AROUND 6 INCHES OF SNOW.*


FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BANDS HAVE SETUP ACROSS THIS REGION WITH REPORTS OF 1
TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES PER HOUR FOR SHORT INTERVALS. THE RAP AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT THESE MESOSCALE BANDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE BUT CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THESE BANDS ARE
CAUSED BY SIGNIFICANT FRONTGENETICAL FORCING AND AMPLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT. STORM TOTALS OF 6-8 INCHES STILL LOOK ON TRACK ATTM. ALSO
PLEASE REFER TO MCD 124 FROM THE SPC AND THE SPS WE HAVE IN
EFFECT.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NJ, THE 9:30 AM UPDATE SLOWS THE
CHANGEOVER AN HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER STILL DO NOT THINK THIS WILL CUT
INTO TOTALS EXTENSIVELY ATTM. THIS IS DUE TO THE SAME MESOSCALE
BANDING SIGNATURES SINKING FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE RAP, HRRR AND 06Z 800-600 MB
FRONTGENETICAL FORCING ON THE 06Z NAM FROM EARLIER TODAY.
SNOWFALL MAY ALSO FALL AROUND AN INCH FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW BY EVENING.

ROAD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY WITH THE SNOW,
ALLOW EXTRA TIME IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE STEADY SNOWS WILL PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY EARLY THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP FROM N/W TO S/E OVERNIGHT. THE LACK OF CLOUDS LATE AND THE FRESH
SNOW COVER SHOULD PRODUCE COLD TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS FAR NORTH. WIND CHILLS MAY
DROP TO NEAR -12 TO -15 ACROSS MOUNT POCONO...BUT REMAIN MORE LIKE 0
TO -10 ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NRLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THERMALLY, BUT IT
WAS A COLD OP RUN IN COMPARISON TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OTHER
MODELS. OVERALL AFTER TODAY, THE LONG TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AND NOT MUCH
PCPN EXPECTED.

A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NOT MUCH WIND. THE
ONE CATCH IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE, EVEN
IF IT WERE STILL JANUARY. MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THE FULL SUN
MACROS AND THE HIGHER NAM STAT GUIDANCE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT WE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF GOING EITHER WITH THE LOWER
STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN AREAS OR BELOW ALL FOR MINS GIVEN WE ARE
EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE
TROF THAT MIGHT SPILL SOME CLOUDS THROUGH PART OF THE NIGHT, ONLY
REASON WE DID NOT GO EVEN LOWER.

SATURDAY THE AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL START AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
REACHES THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAA PHASE OF THE CLIPPER WHICH SHOULD SLOW TEMP RISE A
BIT. WE ARE CLOSER TO NAM STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AS BY NOW
THE GEFS MEAN IS WARMER THAN THE OP GFS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT, CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA THAT THE WEAKENING
CLIPPER MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AS OF NOW APPEARS LIGHT IF THEY MAKE
IT. SUNDAY, THE MODERATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
CLIPPER`S DEMISE SHOULD NOT BRING ANY COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND BY THEN IT MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PTYPE TO FALL AS RAIN. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEPARATE WITH ITS PREDICTED PCPN FOR NOW
REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

THEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN
(INSTEAD OF TAKING THE POLAR ROUTE) FOR A CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING WITH
CIGS/VSBYS IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE IN SNOW. THE CHANGE- OVER WILL
OCCUR BY 15Z AT ACY WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SNOW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOWER VSBYS AROUND 1/4 MILE COULD BE OBSERVED AS
WELL LOCALLY FOR SHORT INTERVALS, WHICH WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. ALSO, ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
TODAY BUT COVERAGE LOOKS LOW ENOUGH NOT TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 00-03Z AS CLOUDS CLEAR. RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE TO LIKELY TODAY.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH ALONG
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR, LOCALLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR TODAY...AND EXTEND THE EXPIRATION TIME
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS AS CAA
CONTINUES. IT APPEARS THAT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNT RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS DEL BAY.
THERE WILL BE RAIN/SNOW EARLY TODAY...THEN SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY, NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OCCURRING ON
FRIDAY MORNING TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE OUTLOOKED TO PREVAIL MAINLY DUE A COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY
WEAK PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ALSO WHERE THERE WILL BE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LEVEL, IT SHOULD BE AT TIMES WHEN THE
AIR TEMPS WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE WATER TEMPS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TODAY (IF NOT ALREADY), THE
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM ARE LESSENING.
WE ARE STILL MONITORING GAGED SITES TO CHECK FOR JAMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

ASIDE FROM ATLANTIC CITY, MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     PAZ060>062-070-071-101>106.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055.
NJ...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     NJZ007>010-012>027.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 051446
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SNOW IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NJ AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA CHANGING FROM SLEET AND RAIN TO SNOW
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW IS APPROACHING
THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION. CAA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH A CONTINUING STREAM OF
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA AND ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THE 9:30
AM UPDATE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END VERY SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH HAVE ALSO BEEN
REPORTED IN SPOTS AND THESE WERE INCREASED WITH THE 9:30 AM
UPDATE.

ONTO SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA A FEW INCHES HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH
TOTALS STILL LOOKING TO AVERAGE UNDER WARNING CRITERIA.


FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BANDS HAVE SETUP ACROSS THIS REGION WITH REPORTS OF 1
TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES PER HOUR FOR SHORT INTERVALS. THE RAP AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT THESE MESOSCALE BANDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE BUT CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THESE BANDS ARE
CAUSED BY SIGNIFICANT FRONTGENETICAL FORCING AND AMPLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT. STORM TOTALS OF 6-8 INCHES STILL LOOK ON TRACK ATTM. ALSO
PLEASE REFER TO MCD 124 FROM THE SPC AND THE SPS WE HAVE IN
EFFECT.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NJ, THE 9:30 AM UPDATE SLOWS THE
CHANGEOVER AN HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER STILL DO NOT THINK THIS WILL CUT
INTO TOTALS EXTENSIVELY ATTM. THIS IS DUE TO THE SAME MESOSCALE
BANDING SIGNATURES SINKING FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE RAP, HRRR AND 06Z 800-600 MB
FRONTGENETICAL FORCING ON THE 06Z NAM FROM EARLIER TODAY.
SNOWFALL MAY ALSO FALL AROUND AN INCH FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW BY EVENING.

ROAD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY WITH THE SNOW,
ALLOW EXTRA TIME IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE STEADY SNOWS WILL PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY EARLY THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP FROM N/W TO S/E OVERNIGHT. THE LACK OF CLOUDS LATE AND THE FRESH
SNOW COVER SHOULD PRODUCE COLD TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS FAR NORTH. WIND CHILLS MAY
DROP TO NEAR -12 TO -15 ACROSS MOUNT POCONO...BUT REMAIN MORE LIKE 0
TO -10 ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NRLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THERMALLY, BUT IT
WAS A COLD OP RUN IN COMPARISON TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OTHER
MODELS. OVERALL AFTER TODAY, THE LONG TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AND NOT MUCH
PCPN EXPECTED.

A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NOT MUCH WIND. THE
ONE CATCH IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE, EVEN
IF IT WERE STILL JANUARY. MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THE FULL SUN
MACROS AND THE HIGHER NAM STAT GUIDANCE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT WE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF GOING EITHER WITH THE LOWER
STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN AREAS OR BELOW ALL FOR MINS GIVEN WE ARE
EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE
TROF THAT MIGHT SPILL SOME CLOUDS THROUGH PART OF THE NIGHT, ONLY
REASON WE DID NOT GO EVEN LOWER.

SATURDAY THE AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL START AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
REACHES THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAA PHASE OF THE CLIPPER WHICH SHOULD SLOW TEMP RISE A
BIT. WE ARE CLOSER TO NAM STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AS BY NOW
THE GEFS MEAN IS WARMER THAN THE OP GFS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT, CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA THAT THE WEAKENING
CLIPPER MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AS OF NOW APPEARS LIGHT IF THEY MAKE
IT. SUNDAY, THE MODERATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
CLIPPER`S DEMISE SHOULD NOT BRING ANY COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND BY THEN IT MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PTYPE TO FALL AS RAIN. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEPARATE WITH ITS PREDICTED PCPN FOR NOW
REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

THEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN
(INSTEAD OF TAKING THE POLAR ROUTE) FOR A CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING WITH
CIGS/VSBYS IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE IN SNOW. THE CHANGE- OVER WILL
OCCUR BY 15Z AT ACY WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SNOW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOWER VSBYS AROUND 1/4 MILE COULD BE OBSERVED AS
WELL LOCALLY FOR SHORT INTERVALS, WHICH WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. ALSO, ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBILE
TODAYBUT COVERAGE LOOKS LOW ENOUGH NOT TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 00-03Z AS CLOUDS CLEAR. RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE TO LIKELY TODAY.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH ALONG
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR, LOCALLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR TODAY...AND EXTEND THE EXPIRATION TIME
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS AS CAA
CONTINUES. IT APPEARS THAT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNT RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS DEL BAY.
THERE WILL BE RAIN/SNOW EARLY TODAY...THEN SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY, NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OCCURRING ON
FRIDAY MORNING TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE OUTLOOKED TO PREVAIL MAINLY DUE A COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY
WEAK PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ALSO WHERE THERE WILL BE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LEVEL, IT SHOULD BE AT TIMES WHEN THE
AIR TEMPS WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE WATER TEMPS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TODAY (IF NOT ALREADY), THE
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM ARE LESSENING.
WE ARE STILL MONITORING GAGED SITES TO CHECK FOR JAMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

ASIDE FROM ATLANTIC CITY, MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ060-
     070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ009-
     010-012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 051446
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SNOW IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NJ AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA CHANGING FROM SLEET AND RAIN TO SNOW
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW IS APPROACHING
THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION. CAA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH A CONTINUING STREAM OF
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA AND ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THE 9:30
AM UPDATE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END VERY SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH HAVE ALSO BEEN
REPORTED IN SPOTS AND THESE WERE INCREASED WITH THE 9:30 AM
UPDATE.

ONTO SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA A FEW INCHES HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH
TOTALS STILL LOOKING TO AVERAGE UNDER WARNING CRITERIA.


FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BANDS HAVE SETUP ACROSS THIS REGION WITH REPORTS OF 1
TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES PER HOUR FOR SHORT INTERVALS. THE RAP AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT THESE MESOSCALE BANDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE BUT CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THESE BANDS ARE
CAUSED BY SIGNIFICANT FRONTGENETICAL FORCING AND AMPLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT. STORM TOTALS OF 6-8 INCHES STILL LOOK ON TRACK ATTM. ALSO
PLEASE REFER TO MCD 124 FROM THE SPC AND THE SPS WE HAVE IN
EFFECT.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NJ, THE 9:30 AM UPDATE SLOWS THE
CHANGEOVER AN HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER STILL DO NOT THINK THIS WILL CUT
INTO TOTALS EXTENSIVELY ATTM. THIS IS DUE TO THE SAME MESOSCALE
BANDING SIGNATURES SINKING FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE RAP, HRRR AND 06Z 800-600 MB
FRONTGENETICAL FORCING ON THE 06Z NAM FROM EARLIER TODAY.
SNOWFALL MAY ALSO FALL AROUND AN INCH FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW BY EVENING.

ROAD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY WITH THE SNOW,
ALLOW EXTRA TIME IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE STEADY SNOWS WILL PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY EARLY THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP FROM N/W TO S/E OVERNIGHT. THE LACK OF CLOUDS LATE AND THE FRESH
SNOW COVER SHOULD PRODUCE COLD TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS FAR NORTH. WIND CHILLS MAY
DROP TO NEAR -12 TO -15 ACROSS MOUNT POCONO...BUT REMAIN MORE LIKE 0
TO -10 ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NRLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THERMALLY, BUT IT
WAS A COLD OP RUN IN COMPARISON TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OTHER
MODELS. OVERALL AFTER TODAY, THE LONG TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AND NOT MUCH
PCPN EXPECTED.

A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NOT MUCH WIND. THE
ONE CATCH IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE, EVEN
IF IT WERE STILL JANUARY. MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THE FULL SUN
MACROS AND THE HIGHER NAM STAT GUIDANCE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT WE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF GOING EITHER WITH THE LOWER
STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN AREAS OR BELOW ALL FOR MINS GIVEN WE ARE
EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE
TROF THAT MIGHT SPILL SOME CLOUDS THROUGH PART OF THE NIGHT, ONLY
REASON WE DID NOT GO EVEN LOWER.

SATURDAY THE AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL START AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
REACHES THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAA PHASE OF THE CLIPPER WHICH SHOULD SLOW TEMP RISE A
BIT. WE ARE CLOSER TO NAM STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AS BY NOW
THE GEFS MEAN IS WARMER THAN THE OP GFS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT, CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA THAT THE WEAKENING
CLIPPER MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AS OF NOW APPEARS LIGHT IF THEY MAKE
IT. SUNDAY, THE MODERATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
CLIPPER`S DEMISE SHOULD NOT BRING ANY COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND BY THEN IT MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PTYPE TO FALL AS RAIN. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEPARATE WITH ITS PREDICTED PCPN FOR NOW
REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

THEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN
(INSTEAD OF TAKING THE POLAR ROUTE) FOR A CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING WITH
CIGS/VSBYS IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE IN SNOW. THE CHANGE- OVER WILL
OCCUR BY 15Z AT ACY WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SNOW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOWER VSBYS AROUND 1/4 MILE COULD BE OBSERVED AS
WELL LOCALLY FOR SHORT INTERVALS, WHICH WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. ALSO, ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBILE
TODAYBUT COVERAGE LOOKS LOW ENOUGH NOT TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 00-03Z AS CLOUDS CLEAR. RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE TO LIKELY TODAY.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH ALONG
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR, LOCALLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR TODAY...AND EXTEND THE EXPIRATION TIME
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS AS CAA
CONTINUES. IT APPEARS THAT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNT RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS DEL BAY.
THERE WILL BE RAIN/SNOW EARLY TODAY...THEN SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY, NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OCCURRING ON
FRIDAY MORNING TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE OUTLOOKED TO PREVAIL MAINLY DUE A COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY
WEAK PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ALSO WHERE THERE WILL BE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LEVEL, IT SHOULD BE AT TIMES WHEN THE
AIR TEMPS WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE WATER TEMPS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TODAY (IF NOT ALREADY), THE
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM ARE LESSENING.
WE ARE STILL MONITORING GAGED SITES TO CHECK FOR JAMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

ASIDE FROM ATLANTIC CITY, MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ060-
     070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ009-
     010-012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 051446
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SNOW IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NJ AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA CHANGING FROM SLEET AND RAIN TO SNOW
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW IS APPROACHING
THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION. CAA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH A CONTINUING STREAM OF
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA AND ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THE 9:30
AM UPDATE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END VERY SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH HAVE ALSO BEEN
REPORTED IN SPOTS AND THESE WERE INCREASED WITH THE 9:30 AM
UPDATE.

ONTO SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA A FEW INCHES HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH
TOTALS STILL LOOKING TO AVERAGE UNDER WARNING CRITERIA.


FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BANDS HAVE SETUP ACROSS THIS REGION WITH REPORTS OF 1
TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES PER HOUR FOR SHORT INTERVALS. THE RAP AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT THESE MESOSCALE BANDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE BUT CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THESE BANDS ARE
CAUSED BY SIGNIFICANT FRONTGENETICAL FORCING AND AMPLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT. STORM TOTALS OF 6-8 INCHES STILL LOOK ON TRACK ATTM. ALSO
PLEASE REFER TO MCD 124 FROM THE SPC AND THE SPS WE HAVE IN
EFFECT.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NJ, THE 9:30 AM UPDATE SLOWS THE
CHANGEOVER AN HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER STILL DO NOT THINK THIS WILL CUT
INTO TOTALS EXTENSIVELY ATTM. THIS IS DUE TO THE SAME MESOSCALE
BANDING SIGNATURES SINKING FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE RAP, HRRR AND 06Z 800-600 MB
FRONTGENETICAL FORCING ON THE 06Z NAM FROM EARLIER TODAY.
SNOWFALL MAY ALSO FALL AROUND AN INCH FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW BY EVENING.

ROAD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY WITH THE SNOW,
ALLOW EXTRA TIME IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE STEADY SNOWS WILL PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY EARLY THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP FROM N/W TO S/E OVERNIGHT. THE LACK OF CLOUDS LATE AND THE FRESH
SNOW COVER SHOULD PRODUCE COLD TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS FAR NORTH. WIND CHILLS MAY
DROP TO NEAR -12 TO -15 ACROSS MOUNT POCONO...BUT REMAIN MORE LIKE 0
TO -10 ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NRLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THERMALLY, BUT IT
WAS A COLD OP RUN IN COMPARISON TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OTHER
MODELS. OVERALL AFTER TODAY, THE LONG TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AND NOT MUCH
PCPN EXPECTED.

A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NOT MUCH WIND. THE
ONE CATCH IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE, EVEN
IF IT WERE STILL JANUARY. MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THE FULL SUN
MACROS AND THE HIGHER NAM STAT GUIDANCE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT WE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF GOING EITHER WITH THE LOWER
STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN AREAS OR BELOW ALL FOR MINS GIVEN WE ARE
EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE
TROF THAT MIGHT SPILL SOME CLOUDS THROUGH PART OF THE NIGHT, ONLY
REASON WE DID NOT GO EVEN LOWER.

SATURDAY THE AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL START AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
REACHES THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAA PHASE OF THE CLIPPER WHICH SHOULD SLOW TEMP RISE A
BIT. WE ARE CLOSER TO NAM STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AS BY NOW
THE GEFS MEAN IS WARMER THAN THE OP GFS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT, CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA THAT THE WEAKENING
CLIPPER MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AS OF NOW APPEARS LIGHT IF THEY MAKE
IT. SUNDAY, THE MODERATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
CLIPPER`S DEMISE SHOULD NOT BRING ANY COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND BY THEN IT MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PTYPE TO FALL AS RAIN. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEPARATE WITH ITS PREDICTED PCPN FOR NOW
REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

THEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN
(INSTEAD OF TAKING THE POLAR ROUTE) FOR A CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING WITH
CIGS/VSBYS IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE IN SNOW. THE CHANGE- OVER WILL
OCCUR BY 15Z AT ACY WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SNOW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOWER VSBYS AROUND 1/4 MILE COULD BE OBSERVED AS
WELL LOCALLY FOR SHORT INTERVALS, WHICH WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. ALSO, ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBILE
TODAYBUT COVERAGE LOOKS LOW ENOUGH NOT TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 00-03Z AS CLOUDS CLEAR. RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE TO LIKELY TODAY.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH ALONG
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR, LOCALLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR TODAY...AND EXTEND THE EXPIRATION TIME
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS AS CAA
CONTINUES. IT APPEARS THAT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNT RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS DEL BAY.
THERE WILL BE RAIN/SNOW EARLY TODAY...THEN SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY, NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OCCURRING ON
FRIDAY MORNING TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE OUTLOOKED TO PREVAIL MAINLY DUE A COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY
WEAK PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ALSO WHERE THERE WILL BE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LEVEL, IT SHOULD BE AT TIMES WHEN THE
AIR TEMPS WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE WATER TEMPS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TODAY (IF NOT ALREADY), THE
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM ARE LESSENING.
WE ARE STILL MONITORING GAGED SITES TO CHECK FOR JAMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

ASIDE FROM ATLANTIC CITY, MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ060-
     070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ009-
     010-012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 051446
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SNOW IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NJ AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA CHANGING FROM SLEET AND RAIN TO SNOW
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW IS APPROACHING
THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION. CAA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH A CONTINUING STREAM OF
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA AND ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THE 9:30
AM UPDATE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END VERY SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH HAVE ALSO BEEN
REPORTED IN SPOTS AND THESE WERE INCREASED WITH THE 9:30 AM
UPDATE.

ONTO SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA A FEW INCHES HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH
TOTALS STILL LOOKING TO AVERAGE UNDER WARNING CRITERIA.


FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BANDS HAVE SETUP ACROSS THIS REGION WITH REPORTS OF 1
TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES PER HOUR FOR SHORT INTERVALS. THE RAP AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT THESE MESOSCALE BANDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE BUT CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THESE BANDS ARE
CAUSED BY SIGNIFICANT FRONTGENETICAL FORCING AND AMPLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT. STORM TOTALS OF 6-8 INCHES STILL LOOK ON TRACK ATTM. ALSO
PLEASE REFER TO MCD 124 FROM THE SPC AND THE SPS WE HAVE IN
EFFECT.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NJ, THE 9:30 AM UPDATE SLOWS THE
CHANGEOVER AN HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER STILL DO NOT THINK THIS WILL CUT
INTO TOTALS EXTENSIVELY ATTM. THIS IS DUE TO THE SAME MESOSCALE
BANDING SIGNATURES SINKING FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE RAP, HRRR AND 06Z 800-600 MB
FRONTGENETICAL FORCING ON THE 06Z NAM FROM EARLIER TODAY.
SNOWFALL MAY ALSO FALL AROUND AN INCH FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW BY EVENING.

ROAD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY WITH THE SNOW,
ALLOW EXTRA TIME IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE STEADY SNOWS WILL PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY EARLY THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP FROM N/W TO S/E OVERNIGHT. THE LACK OF CLOUDS LATE AND THE FRESH
SNOW COVER SHOULD PRODUCE COLD TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS FAR NORTH. WIND CHILLS MAY
DROP TO NEAR -12 TO -15 ACROSS MOUNT POCONO...BUT REMAIN MORE LIKE 0
TO -10 ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NRLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THERMALLY, BUT IT
WAS A COLD OP RUN IN COMPARISON TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OTHER
MODELS. OVERALL AFTER TODAY, THE LONG TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AND NOT MUCH
PCPN EXPECTED.

A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NOT MUCH WIND. THE
ONE CATCH IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE, EVEN
IF IT WERE STILL JANUARY. MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THE FULL SUN
MACROS AND THE HIGHER NAM STAT GUIDANCE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT WE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF GOING EITHER WITH THE LOWER
STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN AREAS OR BELOW ALL FOR MINS GIVEN WE ARE
EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE
TROF THAT MIGHT SPILL SOME CLOUDS THROUGH PART OF THE NIGHT, ONLY
REASON WE DID NOT GO EVEN LOWER.

SATURDAY THE AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL START AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
REACHES THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAA PHASE OF THE CLIPPER WHICH SHOULD SLOW TEMP RISE A
BIT. WE ARE CLOSER TO NAM STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AS BY NOW
THE GEFS MEAN IS WARMER THAN THE OP GFS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT, CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA THAT THE WEAKENING
CLIPPER MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AS OF NOW APPEARS LIGHT IF THEY MAKE
IT. SUNDAY, THE MODERATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
CLIPPER`S DEMISE SHOULD NOT BRING ANY COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND BY THEN IT MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PTYPE TO FALL AS RAIN. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEPARATE WITH ITS PREDICTED PCPN FOR NOW
REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

THEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN
(INSTEAD OF TAKING THE POLAR ROUTE) FOR A CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING WITH
CIGS/VSBYS IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE IN SNOW. THE CHANGE- OVER WILL
OCCUR BY 15Z AT ACY WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SNOW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOWER VSBYS AROUND 1/4 MILE COULD BE OBSERVED AS
WELL LOCALLY FOR SHORT INTERVALS, WHICH WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. ALSO, ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBILE
TODAYBUT COVERAGE LOOKS LOW ENOUGH NOT TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 00-03Z AS CLOUDS CLEAR. RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE TO LIKELY TODAY.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH ALONG
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR, LOCALLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR TODAY...AND EXTEND THE EXPIRATION TIME
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS AS CAA
CONTINUES. IT APPEARS THAT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNT RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS DEL BAY.
THERE WILL BE RAIN/SNOW EARLY TODAY...THEN SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY, NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OCCURRING ON
FRIDAY MORNING TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE OUTLOOKED TO PREVAIL MAINLY DUE A COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY
WEAK PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ALSO WHERE THERE WILL BE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LEVEL, IT SHOULD BE AT TIMES WHEN THE
AIR TEMPS WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE WATER TEMPS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TODAY (IF NOT ALREADY), THE
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM ARE LESSENING.
WE ARE STILL MONITORING GAGED SITES TO CHECK FOR JAMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

ASIDE FROM ATLANTIC CITY, MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ060-
     070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ009-
     010-012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 051446
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SNOW IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NJ AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA CHANGING FROM SLEET AND RAIN TO SNOW
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW IS APPROACHING
THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION. CAA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH A CONTINUING STREAM OF
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA AND ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THE 9:30
AM UPDATE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END VERY SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH HAVE ALSO BEEN
REPORTED IN SPOTS AND THESE WERE INCREASED WITH THE 9:30 AM
UPDATE.

ONTO SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA A FEW INCHES HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH
TOTALS STILL LOOKING TO AVERAGE UNDER WARNING CRITERIA.


FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BANDS HAVE SETUP ACROSS THIS REGION WITH REPORTS OF 1
TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES PER HOUR FOR SHORT INTERVALS. THE RAP AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT THESE MESOSCALE BANDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE BUT CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THESE BANDS ARE
CAUSED BY SIGNIFICANT FRONTGENETICAL FORCING AND AMPLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT. STORM TOTALS OF 6-8 INCHES STILL LOOK ON TRACK ATTM. ALSO
PLEASE REFER TO MCD 124 FROM THE SPC AND THE SPS WE HAVE IN
EFFECT.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NJ, THE 9:30 AM UPDATE SLOWS THE
CHANGEOVER AN HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER STILL DO NOT THINK THIS WILL CUT
INTO TOTALS EXTENSIVELY ATTM. THIS IS DUE TO THE SAME MESOSCALE
BANDING SIGNATURES SINKING FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE RAP, HRRR AND 06Z 800-600 MB
FRONTGENETICAL FORCING ON THE 06Z NAM FROM EARLIER TODAY.
SNOWFALL MAY ALSO FALL AROUND AN INCH FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW BY EVENING.

ROAD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY WITH THE SNOW,
ALLOW EXTRA TIME IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE STEADY SNOWS WILL PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY EARLY THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP FROM N/W TO S/E OVERNIGHT. THE LACK OF CLOUDS LATE AND THE FRESH
SNOW COVER SHOULD PRODUCE COLD TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS FAR NORTH. WIND CHILLS MAY
DROP TO NEAR -12 TO -15 ACROSS MOUNT POCONO...BUT REMAIN MORE LIKE 0
TO -10 ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NRLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THERMALLY, BUT IT
WAS A COLD OP RUN IN COMPARISON TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OTHER
MODELS. OVERALL AFTER TODAY, THE LONG TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AND NOT MUCH
PCPN EXPECTED.

A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NOT MUCH WIND. THE
ONE CATCH IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE, EVEN
IF IT WERE STILL JANUARY. MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THE FULL SUN
MACROS AND THE HIGHER NAM STAT GUIDANCE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT WE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF GOING EITHER WITH THE LOWER
STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN AREAS OR BELOW ALL FOR MINS GIVEN WE ARE
EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE
TROF THAT MIGHT SPILL SOME CLOUDS THROUGH PART OF THE NIGHT, ONLY
REASON WE DID NOT GO EVEN LOWER.

SATURDAY THE AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL START AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
REACHES THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAA PHASE OF THE CLIPPER WHICH SHOULD SLOW TEMP RISE A
BIT. WE ARE CLOSER TO NAM STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AS BY NOW
THE GEFS MEAN IS WARMER THAN THE OP GFS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT, CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA THAT THE WEAKENING
CLIPPER MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AS OF NOW APPEARS LIGHT IF THEY MAKE
IT. SUNDAY, THE MODERATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
CLIPPER`S DEMISE SHOULD NOT BRING ANY COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND BY THEN IT MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PTYPE TO FALL AS RAIN. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEPARATE WITH ITS PREDICTED PCPN FOR NOW
REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

THEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN
(INSTEAD OF TAKING THE POLAR ROUTE) FOR A CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING WITH
CIGS/VSBYS IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE IN SNOW. THE CHANGE- OVER WILL
OCCUR BY 15Z AT ACY WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SNOW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOWER VSBYS AROUND 1/4 MILE COULD BE OBSERVED AS
WELL LOCALLY FOR SHORT INTERVALS, WHICH WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. ALSO, ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBILE
TODAYBUT COVERAGE LOOKS LOW ENOUGH NOT TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 00-03Z AS CLOUDS CLEAR. RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE TO LIKELY TODAY.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH ALONG
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR, LOCALLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR TODAY...AND EXTEND THE EXPIRATION TIME
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS AS CAA
CONTINUES. IT APPEARS THAT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNT RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS DEL BAY.
THERE WILL BE RAIN/SNOW EARLY TODAY...THEN SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY, NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OCCURRING ON
FRIDAY MORNING TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE OUTLOOKED TO PREVAIL MAINLY DUE A COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY
WEAK PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ALSO WHERE THERE WILL BE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LEVEL, IT SHOULD BE AT TIMES WHEN THE
AIR TEMPS WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE WATER TEMPS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TODAY (IF NOT ALREADY), THE
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM ARE LESSENING.
WE ARE STILL MONITORING GAGED SITES TO CHECK FOR JAMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

ASIDE FROM ATLANTIC CITY, MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ060-
     070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ009-
     010-012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 051446
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SNOW IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NJ AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA CHANGING FROM SLEET AND RAIN TO SNOW
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW IS APPROACHING
THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION. CAA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH A CONTINUING STREAM OF
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA AND ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THE 9:30
AM UPDATE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END VERY SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH HAVE ALSO BEEN
REPORTED IN SPOTS AND THESE WERE INCREASED WITH THE 9:30 AM
UPDATE.

ONTO SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA A FEW INCHES HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH
TOTALS STILL LOOKING TO AVERAGE UNDER WARNING CRITERIA.


FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BANDS HAVE SETUP ACROSS THIS REGION WITH REPORTS OF 1
TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES PER HOUR FOR SHORT INTERVALS. THE RAP AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT THESE MESOSCALE BANDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE BUT CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THESE BANDS ARE
CAUSED BY SIGNIFICANT FRONTGENETICAL FORCING AND AMPLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT. STORM TOTALS OF 6-8 INCHES STILL LOOK ON TRACK ATTM. ALSO
PLEASE REFER TO MCD 124 FROM THE SPC AND THE SPS WE HAVE IN
EFFECT.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NJ, THE 9:30 AM UPDATE SLOWS THE
CHANGEOVER AN HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER STILL DO NOT THINK THIS WILL CUT
INTO TOTALS EXTENSIVELY ATTM. THIS IS DUE TO THE SAME MESOSCALE
BANDING SIGNATURES SINKING FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE RAP, HRRR AND 06Z 800-600 MB
FRONTGENETICAL FORCING ON THE 06Z NAM FROM EARLIER TODAY.
SNOWFALL MAY ALSO FALL AROUND AN INCH FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW BY EVENING.

ROAD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY WITH THE SNOW,
ALLOW EXTRA TIME IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE STEADY SNOWS WILL PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY EARLY THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP FROM N/W TO S/E OVERNIGHT. THE LACK OF CLOUDS LATE AND THE FRESH
SNOW COVER SHOULD PRODUCE COLD TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS FAR NORTH. WIND CHILLS MAY
DROP TO NEAR -12 TO -15 ACROSS MOUNT POCONO...BUT REMAIN MORE LIKE 0
TO -10 ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NRLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THERMALLY, BUT IT
WAS A COLD OP RUN IN COMPARISON TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OTHER
MODELS. OVERALL AFTER TODAY, THE LONG TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AND NOT MUCH
PCPN EXPECTED.

A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NOT MUCH WIND. THE
ONE CATCH IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE, EVEN
IF IT WERE STILL JANUARY. MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THE FULL SUN
MACROS AND THE HIGHER NAM STAT GUIDANCE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT WE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF GOING EITHER WITH THE LOWER
STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN AREAS OR BELOW ALL FOR MINS GIVEN WE ARE
EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE
TROF THAT MIGHT SPILL SOME CLOUDS THROUGH PART OF THE NIGHT, ONLY
REASON WE DID NOT GO EVEN LOWER.

SATURDAY THE AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL START AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
REACHES THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAA PHASE OF THE CLIPPER WHICH SHOULD SLOW TEMP RISE A
BIT. WE ARE CLOSER TO NAM STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AS BY NOW
THE GEFS MEAN IS WARMER THAN THE OP GFS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT, CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA THAT THE WEAKENING
CLIPPER MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AS OF NOW APPEARS LIGHT IF THEY MAKE
IT. SUNDAY, THE MODERATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
CLIPPER`S DEMISE SHOULD NOT BRING ANY COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND BY THEN IT MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PTYPE TO FALL AS RAIN. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEPARATE WITH ITS PREDICTED PCPN FOR NOW
REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

THEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN
(INSTEAD OF TAKING THE POLAR ROUTE) FOR A CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING WITH
CIGS/VSBYS IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE IN SNOW. THE CHANGE- OVER WILL
OCCUR BY 15Z AT ACY WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SNOW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOWER VSBYS AROUND 1/4 MILE COULD BE OBSERVED AS
WELL LOCALLY FOR SHORT INTERVALS, WHICH WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. ALSO, ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBILE
TODAYBUT COVERAGE LOOKS LOW ENOUGH NOT TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 00-03Z AS CLOUDS CLEAR. RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE TO LIKELY TODAY.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH ALONG
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR, LOCALLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR TODAY...AND EXTEND THE EXPIRATION TIME
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS AS CAA
CONTINUES. IT APPEARS THAT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNT RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS DEL BAY.
THERE WILL BE RAIN/SNOW EARLY TODAY...THEN SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY, NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OCCURRING ON
FRIDAY MORNING TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE OUTLOOKED TO PREVAIL MAINLY DUE A COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY
WEAK PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ALSO WHERE THERE WILL BE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LEVEL, IT SHOULD BE AT TIMES WHEN THE
AIR TEMPS WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE WATER TEMPS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TODAY (IF NOT ALREADY), THE
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM ARE LESSENING.
WE ARE STILL MONITORING GAGED SITES TO CHECK FOR JAMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

ASIDE FROM ATLANTIC CITY, MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ060-
     070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ009-
     010-012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 051446
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SNOW IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NJ AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA CHANGING FROM SLEET AND RAIN TO SNOW
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW IS APPROACHING
THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION. CAA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH A CONTINUING STREAM OF
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA AND ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THE 9:30
AM UPDATE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END VERY SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH HAVE ALSO BEEN
REPORTED IN SPOTS AND THESE WERE INCREASED WITH THE 9:30 AM
UPDATE.

ONTO SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA A FEW INCHES HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH
TOTALS STILL LOOKING TO AVERAGE UNDER WARNING CRITERIA.


FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BANDS HAVE SETUP ACROSS THIS REGION WITH REPORTS OF 1
TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES PER HOUR FOR SHORT INTERVALS. THE RAP AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT THESE MESOSCALE BANDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE BUT CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THESE BANDS ARE
CAUSED BY SIGNIFICANT FRONTGENETICAL FORCING AND AMPLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT. STORM TOTALS OF 6-8 INCHES STILL LOOK ON TRACK ATTM. ALSO
PLEASE REFER TO MCD 124 FROM THE SPC AND THE SPS WE HAVE IN
EFFECT.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NJ, THE 9:30 AM UPDATE SLOWS THE
CHANGEOVER AN HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER STILL DO NOT THINK THIS WILL CUT
INTO TOTALS EXTENSIVELY ATTM. THIS IS DUE TO THE SAME MESOSCALE
BANDING SIGNATURES SINKING FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE RAP, HRRR AND 06Z 800-600 MB
FRONTGENETICAL FORCING ON THE 06Z NAM FROM EARLIER TODAY.
SNOWFALL MAY ALSO FALL AROUND AN INCH FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW BY EVENING.

ROAD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY WITH THE SNOW,
ALLOW EXTRA TIME IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE STEADY SNOWS WILL PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY EARLY THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP FROM N/W TO S/E OVERNIGHT. THE LACK OF CLOUDS LATE AND THE FRESH
SNOW COVER SHOULD PRODUCE COLD TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS FAR NORTH. WIND CHILLS MAY
DROP TO NEAR -12 TO -15 ACROSS MOUNT POCONO...BUT REMAIN MORE LIKE 0
TO -10 ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NRLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THERMALLY, BUT IT
WAS A COLD OP RUN IN COMPARISON TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OTHER
MODELS. OVERALL AFTER TODAY, THE LONG TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AND NOT MUCH
PCPN EXPECTED.

A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NOT MUCH WIND. THE
ONE CATCH IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE, EVEN
IF IT WERE STILL JANUARY. MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THE FULL SUN
MACROS AND THE HIGHER NAM STAT GUIDANCE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT WE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF GOING EITHER WITH THE LOWER
STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN AREAS OR BELOW ALL FOR MINS GIVEN WE ARE
EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE
TROF THAT MIGHT SPILL SOME CLOUDS THROUGH PART OF THE NIGHT, ONLY
REASON WE DID NOT GO EVEN LOWER.

SATURDAY THE AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL START AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
REACHES THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAA PHASE OF THE CLIPPER WHICH SHOULD SLOW TEMP RISE A
BIT. WE ARE CLOSER TO NAM STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AS BY NOW
THE GEFS MEAN IS WARMER THAN THE OP GFS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT, CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA THAT THE WEAKENING
CLIPPER MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AS OF NOW APPEARS LIGHT IF THEY MAKE
IT. SUNDAY, THE MODERATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
CLIPPER`S DEMISE SHOULD NOT BRING ANY COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND BY THEN IT MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PTYPE TO FALL AS RAIN. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEPARATE WITH ITS PREDICTED PCPN FOR NOW
REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

THEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN
(INSTEAD OF TAKING THE POLAR ROUTE) FOR A CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING WITH
CIGS/VSBYS IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE IN SNOW. THE CHANGE- OVER WILL
OCCUR BY 15Z AT ACY WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SNOW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOWER VSBYS AROUND 1/4 MILE COULD BE OBSERVED AS
WELL LOCALLY FOR SHORT INTERVALS, WHICH WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. ALSO, ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBILE
TODAYBUT COVERAGE LOOKS LOW ENOUGH NOT TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 00-03Z AS CLOUDS CLEAR. RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE TO LIKELY TODAY.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH ALONG
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR, LOCALLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR TODAY...AND EXTEND THE EXPIRATION TIME
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS AS CAA
CONTINUES. IT APPEARS THAT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNT RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS DEL BAY.
THERE WILL BE RAIN/SNOW EARLY TODAY...THEN SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY, NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OCCURRING ON
FRIDAY MORNING TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE OUTLOOKED TO PREVAIL MAINLY DUE A COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY
WEAK PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ALSO WHERE THERE WILL BE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LEVEL, IT SHOULD BE AT TIMES WHEN THE
AIR TEMPS WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE WATER TEMPS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TODAY (IF NOT ALREADY), THE
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM ARE LESSENING.
WE ARE STILL MONITORING GAGED SITES TO CHECK FOR JAMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

ASIDE FROM ATLANTIC CITY, MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ060-
     070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ009-
     010-012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 051446
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SNOW IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NJ AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA CHANGING FROM SLEET AND RAIN TO SNOW
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW IS APPROACHING
THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION. CAA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH A CONTINUING STREAM OF
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA AND ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THE 9:30
AM UPDATE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END VERY SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH HAVE ALSO BEEN
REPORTED IN SPOTS AND THESE WERE INCREASED WITH THE 9:30 AM
UPDATE.

ONTO SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA A FEW INCHES HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH
TOTALS STILL LOOKING TO AVERAGE UNDER WARNING CRITERIA.


FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BANDS HAVE SETUP ACROSS THIS REGION WITH REPORTS OF 1
TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES PER HOUR FOR SHORT INTERVALS. THE RAP AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT THESE MESOSCALE BANDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE BUT CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THESE BANDS ARE
CAUSED BY SIGNIFICANT FRONTGENETICAL FORCING AND AMPLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT. STORM TOTALS OF 6-8 INCHES STILL LOOK ON TRACK ATTM. ALSO
PLEASE REFER TO MCD 124 FROM THE SPC AND THE SPS WE HAVE IN
EFFECT.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NJ, THE 9:30 AM UPDATE SLOWS THE
CHANGEOVER AN HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER STILL DO NOT THINK THIS WILL CUT
INTO TOTALS EXTENSIVELY ATTM. THIS IS DUE TO THE SAME MESOSCALE
BANDING SIGNATURES SINKING FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE RAP, HRRR AND 06Z 800-600 MB
FRONTGENETICAL FORCING ON THE 06Z NAM FROM EARLIER TODAY.
SNOWFALL MAY ALSO FALL AROUND AN INCH FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW BY EVENING.

ROAD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY WITH THE SNOW,
ALLOW EXTRA TIME IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE STEADY SNOWS WILL PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY EARLY THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP FROM N/W TO S/E OVERNIGHT. THE LACK OF CLOUDS LATE AND THE FRESH
SNOW COVER SHOULD PRODUCE COLD TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS FAR NORTH. WIND CHILLS MAY
DROP TO NEAR -12 TO -15 ACROSS MOUNT POCONO...BUT REMAIN MORE LIKE 0
TO -10 ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NRLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THERMALLY, BUT IT
WAS A COLD OP RUN IN COMPARISON TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OTHER
MODELS. OVERALL AFTER TODAY, THE LONG TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AND NOT MUCH
PCPN EXPECTED.

A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NOT MUCH WIND. THE
ONE CATCH IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE, EVEN
IF IT WERE STILL JANUARY. MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THE FULL SUN
MACROS AND THE HIGHER NAM STAT GUIDANCE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT WE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF GOING EITHER WITH THE LOWER
STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN AREAS OR BELOW ALL FOR MINS GIVEN WE ARE
EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE
TROF THAT MIGHT SPILL SOME CLOUDS THROUGH PART OF THE NIGHT, ONLY
REASON WE DID NOT GO EVEN LOWER.

SATURDAY THE AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL START AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
REACHES THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAA PHASE OF THE CLIPPER WHICH SHOULD SLOW TEMP RISE A
BIT. WE ARE CLOSER TO NAM STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AS BY NOW
THE GEFS MEAN IS WARMER THAN THE OP GFS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT, CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA THAT THE WEAKENING
CLIPPER MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AS OF NOW APPEARS LIGHT IF THEY MAKE
IT. SUNDAY, THE MODERATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
CLIPPER`S DEMISE SHOULD NOT BRING ANY COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND BY THEN IT MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PTYPE TO FALL AS RAIN. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEPARATE WITH ITS PREDICTED PCPN FOR NOW
REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

THEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN
(INSTEAD OF TAKING THE POLAR ROUTE) FOR A CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING WITH
CIGS/VSBYS IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE IN SNOW. THE CHANGE- OVER WILL
OCCUR BY 15Z AT ACY WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SNOW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOWER VSBYS AROUND 1/4 MILE COULD BE OBSERVED AS
WELL LOCALLY FOR SHORT INTERVALS, WHICH WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. ALSO, ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBILE
TODAYBUT COVERAGE LOOKS LOW ENOUGH NOT TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 00-03Z AS CLOUDS CLEAR. RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE TO LIKELY TODAY.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH ALONG
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR, LOCALLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR TODAY...AND EXTEND THE EXPIRATION TIME
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS AS CAA
CONTINUES. IT APPEARS THAT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNT RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS DEL BAY.
THERE WILL BE RAIN/SNOW EARLY TODAY...THEN SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY, NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OCCURRING ON
FRIDAY MORNING TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE OUTLOOKED TO PREVAIL MAINLY DUE A COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY
WEAK PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ALSO WHERE THERE WILL BE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LEVEL, IT SHOULD BE AT TIMES WHEN THE
AIR TEMPS WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE WATER TEMPS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TODAY (IF NOT ALREADY), THE
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM ARE LESSENING.
WE ARE STILL MONITORING GAGED SITES TO CHECK FOR JAMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

ASIDE FROM ATLANTIC CITY, MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ060-
     070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ009-
     010-012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 051446
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SNOW IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NJ AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA CHANGING FROM SLEET AND RAIN TO SNOW
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW IS APPROACHING
THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION. CAA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH A CONTINUING STREAM OF
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA AND ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THE 9:30
AM UPDATE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END VERY SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH HAVE ALSO BEEN
REPORTED IN SPOTS AND THESE WERE INCREASED WITH THE 9:30 AM
UPDATE.

ONTO SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA A FEW INCHES HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH
TOTALS STILL LOOKING TO AVERAGE UNDER WARNING CRITERIA.


FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BANDS HAVE SETUP ACROSS THIS REGION WITH REPORTS OF 1
TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES PER HOUR FOR SHORT INTERVALS. THE RAP AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT THESE MESOSCALE BANDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE BUT CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THESE BANDS ARE
CAUSED BY SIGNIFICANT FRONTGENETICAL FORCING AND AMPLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT. STORM TOTALS OF 6-8 INCHES STILL LOOK ON TRACK ATTM. ALSO
PLEASE REFER TO MCD 124 FROM THE SPC AND THE SPS WE HAVE IN
EFFECT.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NJ, THE 9:30 AM UPDATE SLOWS THE
CHANGEOVER AN HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER STILL DO NOT THINK THIS WILL CUT
INTO TOTALS EXTENSIVELY ATTM. THIS IS DUE TO THE SAME MESOSCALE
BANDING SIGNATURES SINKING FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE RAP, HRRR AND 06Z 800-600 MB
FRONTGENETICAL FORCING ON THE 06Z NAM FROM EARLIER TODAY.
SNOWFALL MAY ALSO FALL AROUND AN INCH FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW BY EVENING.

ROAD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY WITH THE SNOW,
ALLOW EXTRA TIME IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE STEADY SNOWS WILL PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY EARLY THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP FROM N/W TO S/E OVERNIGHT. THE LACK OF CLOUDS LATE AND THE FRESH
SNOW COVER SHOULD PRODUCE COLD TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS FAR NORTH. WIND CHILLS MAY
DROP TO NEAR -12 TO -15 ACROSS MOUNT POCONO...BUT REMAIN MORE LIKE 0
TO -10 ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NRLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THERMALLY, BUT IT
WAS A COLD OP RUN IN COMPARISON TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OTHER
MODELS. OVERALL AFTER TODAY, THE LONG TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AND NOT MUCH
PCPN EXPECTED.

A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NOT MUCH WIND. THE
ONE CATCH IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE, EVEN
IF IT WERE STILL JANUARY. MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THE FULL SUN
MACROS AND THE HIGHER NAM STAT GUIDANCE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT WE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF GOING EITHER WITH THE LOWER
STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN AREAS OR BELOW ALL FOR MINS GIVEN WE ARE
EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE
TROF THAT MIGHT SPILL SOME CLOUDS THROUGH PART OF THE NIGHT, ONLY
REASON WE DID NOT GO EVEN LOWER.

SATURDAY THE AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL START AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
REACHES THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAA PHASE OF THE CLIPPER WHICH SHOULD SLOW TEMP RISE A
BIT. WE ARE CLOSER TO NAM STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AS BY NOW
THE GEFS MEAN IS WARMER THAN THE OP GFS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT, CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA THAT THE WEAKENING
CLIPPER MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AS OF NOW APPEARS LIGHT IF THEY MAKE
IT. SUNDAY, THE MODERATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
CLIPPER`S DEMISE SHOULD NOT BRING ANY COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND BY THEN IT MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PTYPE TO FALL AS RAIN. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEPARATE WITH ITS PREDICTED PCPN FOR NOW
REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

THEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN
(INSTEAD OF TAKING THE POLAR ROUTE) FOR A CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING WITH
CIGS/VSBYS IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE IN SNOW. THE CHANGE- OVER WILL
OCCUR BY 15Z AT ACY WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SNOW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOWER VSBYS AROUND 1/4 MILE COULD BE OBSERVED AS
WELL LOCALLY FOR SHORT INTERVALS, WHICH WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. ALSO, ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBILE
TODAYBUT COVERAGE LOOKS LOW ENOUGH NOT TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 00-03Z AS CLOUDS CLEAR. RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE TO LIKELY TODAY.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH ALONG
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR, LOCALLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR TODAY...AND EXTEND THE EXPIRATION TIME
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS AS CAA
CONTINUES. IT APPEARS THAT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNT RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS DEL BAY.
THERE WILL BE RAIN/SNOW EARLY TODAY...THEN SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY, NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OCCURRING ON
FRIDAY MORNING TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE OUTLOOKED TO PREVAIL MAINLY DUE A COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY
WEAK PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ALSO WHERE THERE WILL BE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LEVEL, IT SHOULD BE AT TIMES WHEN THE
AIR TEMPS WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE WATER TEMPS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TODAY (IF NOT ALREADY), THE
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM ARE LESSENING.
WE ARE STILL MONITORING GAGED SITES TO CHECK FOR JAMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

ASIDE FROM ATLANTIC CITY, MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ060-
     070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ009-
     010-012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 051446
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
946 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

SNOW IS IN PROGRESS ACROSS THE REGION WITH AREAS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
NJ AND THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA CHANGING FROM SLEET AND RAIN TO SNOW
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE BACK EDGE OF THE SNOW IS APPROACHING
THE NORTHWEST PARTS OF THE REGION. CAA WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO
THE REGION BEHIND A COLD FRONT WITH A CONTINUING STREAM OF
OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO DROP TODAY
ACROSS THE AREA AND ONLY A FEW ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE WITH THE 9:30
AM UPDATE. PRECIPITATION SHOULD END VERY SLOWLY FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH HAVE ALSO BEEN
REPORTED IN SPOTS AND THESE WERE INCREASED WITH THE 9:30 AM
UPDATE.

ONTO SNOW AMOUNTS IN THE ADVISORY AREA A FEW INCHES HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION WITH
TOTALS STILL LOOKING TO AVERAGE UNDER WARNING CRITERIA.


FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD THE PHILADELPHIA METRO AREA MODERATE TO
HEAVY SNOW BANDS HAVE SETUP ACROSS THIS REGION WITH REPORTS OF 1
TO AS MUCH AS 2 INCHES PER HOUR FOR SHORT INTERVALS. THE RAP AND
HRRR BOTH INDICATE THAT THESE MESOSCALE BANDS WILL BE SOMEWHAT
PROGRESSIVE BUT CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY. THESE BANDS ARE
CAUSED BY SIGNIFICANT FRONTGENETICAL FORCING AND AMPLE ISENTROPIC
LIFT. STORM TOTALS OF 6-8 INCHES STILL LOOK ON TRACK ATTM. ALSO
PLEASE REFER TO MCD 124 FROM THE SPC AND THE SPS WE HAVE IN
EFFECT.

IN THE DELMARVA AND SOUTHEAST NJ, THE 9:30 AM UPDATE SLOWS THE
CHANGEOVER AN HOUR OR SO. HOWEVER STILL DO NOT THINK THIS WILL CUT
INTO TOTALS EXTENSIVELY ATTM. THIS IS DUE TO THE SAME MESOSCALE
BANDING SIGNATURES SINKING FURTHER SOUTH FOR THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
THIS IS PICKED UP WELL BY THE RAP, HRRR AND 06Z 800-600 MB
FRONTGENETICAL FORCING ON THE 06Z NAM FROM EARLIER TODAY.
SNOWFALL MAY ALSO FALL AROUND AN INCH FOR A TIME THIS AFTERNOON
LEADING TO 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW BY EVENING.

ROAD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE TODAY WITH THE SNOW,
ALLOW EXTRA TIME IF YOU HAVE TO TRAVEL.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE STEADY SNOWS WILL PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY EARLY THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP FROM N/W TO S/E OVERNIGHT. THE LACK OF CLOUDS LATE AND THE FRESH
SNOW COVER SHOULD PRODUCE COLD TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS FAR NORTH. WIND CHILLS MAY
DROP TO NEAR -12 TO -15 ACROSS MOUNT POCONO...BUT REMAIN MORE LIKE 0
TO -10 ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NRLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THERMALLY, BUT IT
WAS A COLD OP RUN IN COMPARISON TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OTHER
MODELS. OVERALL AFTER TODAY, THE LONG TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AND NOT MUCH
PCPN EXPECTED.

A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NOT MUCH WIND. THE
ONE CATCH IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE, EVEN
IF IT WERE STILL JANUARY. MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THE FULL SUN
MACROS AND THE HIGHER NAM STAT GUIDANCE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT WE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF GOING EITHER WITH THE LOWER
STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN AREAS OR BELOW ALL FOR MINS GIVEN WE ARE
EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE
TROF THAT MIGHT SPILL SOME CLOUDS THROUGH PART OF THE NIGHT, ONLY
REASON WE DID NOT GO EVEN LOWER.

SATURDAY THE AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL START AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
REACHES THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAA PHASE OF THE CLIPPER WHICH SHOULD SLOW TEMP RISE A
BIT. WE ARE CLOSER TO NAM STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AS BY NOW
THE GEFS MEAN IS WARMER THAN THE OP GFS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT, CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA THAT THE WEAKENING
CLIPPER MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AS OF NOW APPEARS LIGHT IF THEY MAKE
IT. SUNDAY, THE MODERATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
CLIPPER`S DEMISE SHOULD NOT BRING ANY COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND BY THEN IT MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PTYPE TO FALL AS RAIN. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEPARATE WITH ITS PREDICTED PCPN FOR NOW
REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

THEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN
(INSTEAD OF TAKING THE POLAR ROUTE) FOR A CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING WITH
CIGS/VSBYS IN THE IFR/LIFR RANGE IN SNOW. THE CHANGE- OVER WILL
OCCUR BY 15Z AT ACY WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING SNOW WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOWER VSBYS AROUND 1/4 MILE COULD BE OBSERVED AS
WELL LOCALLY FOR SHORT INTERVALS, WHICH WERE NOT INCLUDED IN THE
TAFS. ALSO, ISOLATED WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ARE POSSIBILE
TODAYBUT COVERAGE LOOKS LOW ENOUGH NOT TO MENTION IN TAFS ATTM.
IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR IS POSSIBLE AFTER 20Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS
AROUND 00-03Z AS CLOUDS CLEAR. RUNWAY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS
POSSIBLE TO LIKELY TODAY.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH ALONG
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR, LOCALLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR TODAY...AND EXTEND THE EXPIRATION TIME
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS AS CAA
CONTINUES. IT APPEARS THAT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNT RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS DEL BAY.
THERE WILL BE RAIN/SNOW EARLY TODAY...THEN SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY, NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OCCURRING ON
FRIDAY MORNING TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE OUTLOOKED TO PREVAIL MAINLY DUE A COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY
WEAK PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ALSO WHERE THERE WILL BE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LEVEL, IT SHOULD BE AT TIMES WHEN THE
AIR TEMPS WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE WATER TEMPS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TODAY (IF NOT ALREADY), THE
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM ARE LESSENING.
WE ARE STILL MONITORING GAGED SITES TO CHECK FOR JAMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

ASIDE FROM ATLANTIC CITY, MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE
SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ060-
     070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ009-
     010-012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...GAINES
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 051124
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
624 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS PUSHED SOUTH/EAST AND IS ROUGHLY ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR ATTM. THIS TRANSITION HAS OCCURRED SOMEWHAT SLOWER
THAN EARLIER ENVISIONED...YET THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE
UPSTREAM AND DECENT SNOWS ARE STILL EXPECTED TODAY. LIGHT ACCUMS
ALREADY BEING REPORTED N/CNTRL NJ AND NE PA/LEHIGH VALLEY.


THE COLD FRONT AND THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT ARE
BOTH SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AND THERE APPEARS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
UPSTREAM STILL TO GO THROUGH. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THE SLOW DROP
ACROSS THE AREA AND RAIN HAS CHANGED TO SNOW ACROSS NE PA AND THE
LEHIGH VALLEY AS OF PRESS TIME. THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE
ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY BY DAWN AND THEN ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA LATER THIS MORNING. THE SNOW AMTS EARLIER STILL LOOK MOSTLY
OK...AND ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE. A WIDE SWATH OF 6 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA WITH 4-6 SURROUNDING
THAT. THE LOWEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS AND NRN NJ
WHERE 2-4 INCHES SHOULD FALL. TEMPERATURE WILL NOT CLIMB MUCH TODAY
WITH A CONTINUATION OF CAA EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE STEADY SNOWS WILL PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY EARLY THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP FROM N/W TO S/E OVERNIGHT. THE LACK OF CLOUDS LATE AND THE FRESH
SNOW COVER SHOULD PRODUCE COLD TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS FAR NORTH. WIND CHILLS MAY
DROP TO NEAR -12 TO -15 ACROSS MOUNT POCONO...BUT REMAIN MORE LIKE 0
TO -10 ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NRLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THERMALLY, BUT IT
WAS A COLD OP RUN IN COMPARISON TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OTHER
MODELS. OVERALL AFTER TODAY, THE LONG TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AND NOT MUCH
PCPN EXPECTED.

A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NOT MUCH WIND. THE
ONE CATCH IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE, EVEN
IF IT WERE STILL JANUARY. MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THE FULL SUN
MACROS AND THE HIGHER NAM STAT GUIDANCE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT WE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF GOING EITHER WITH THE LOWER
STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN AREAS OR BELOW ALL FOR MINS GIVEN WE ARE
EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE
TROF THAT MIGHT SPILL SOME CLOUDS THROUGH PART OF THE NIGHT, ONLY
REASON WE DID NOT GO EVEN LOWER.

SATURDAY THE AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL START AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
REACHES THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAA PHASE OF THE CLIPPER WHICH SHOULD SLOW TEMP RISE A
BIT. WE ARE CLOSER TO NAM STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AS BY NOW
THE GEFS MEAN IS WARMER THAN THE OP GFS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT, CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA THAT THE WEAKENING
CLIPPER MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AS OF NOW APPEARS LIGHT IF THEY MAKE
IT. SUNDAY, THE MODERATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
CLIPPER`S DEMISE SHOULD NOT BRING ANY COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND BY THEN IT MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PTYPE TO FALL AS RAIN. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEPARATE WITH ITS PREDICTED PCPN FOR NOW
REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

THEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN
(INSTEAD OF TAKING THE POLAR ROUTE) FOR A CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING WITH
CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING TO IFR/LIFR IN SNOW. THE CHANGE-OVER HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED AT KRDG/KABE AND WILL SOON HAPPEN ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY
SITES. A FEW PERIODS OF SLEET ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PROBABLY WON`T LAST
TOO LONG AND WE`LL KEEP IT FROM THE TAFS WITH CONFID IN
LOCATION/TIMING RATHER LOW. SNOW WILL LOWER VSBYS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING BY EVENING OVER MOST
AREAS. A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED 23Z OR 00Z N/W AND 03Z TO 04Z S/E
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NW OR N AT 10 TO 15 KTS TODAY.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH ALONG
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR, LOCALLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR TODAY...AND EXTEND THE EXPIRATION TIME
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS AS CAA
CONTINUES. IT APPEARS THAT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNT RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS DEL BAY.
THERE WILL BE RAIN/SNOW EARLY TODAY...THEN SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY, NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OCCURRING ON
FRIDAY MORNING TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE OUTLOOKED TO PREVAIL MAINLY DUE A COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY
WEAK PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ALSO WHERE THERE WILL BE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LEVEL, IT SHOULD BE AT TIMES WHEN THE
AIR TEMPS WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE WATER TEMPS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TODAY (IF NOT ALREADY), THE
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM ARE LESSENING.
WE ARE STILL MONITORING GAGED SITES TO CHECK FOR JAMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

ASIDE FROM ATLANTIC CITY, MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ060-
     070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ009-
     010-012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 051124
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
624 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE RAIN/SNOW LINE HAS PUSHED SOUTH/EAST AND IS ROUGHLY ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR ATTM. THIS TRANSITION HAS OCCURRED SOMEWHAT SLOWER
THAN EARLIER ENVISIONED...YET THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE
UPSTREAM AND DECENT SNOWS ARE STILL EXPECTED TODAY. LIGHT ACCUMS
ALREADY BEING REPORTED N/CNTRL NJ AND NE PA/LEHIGH VALLEY.


THE COLD FRONT AND THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT ARE
BOTH SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AND THERE APPEARS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
UPSTREAM STILL TO GO THROUGH. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THE SLOW DROP
ACROSS THE AREA AND RAIN HAS CHANGED TO SNOW ACROSS NE PA AND THE
LEHIGH VALLEY AS OF PRESS TIME. THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE
ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY BY DAWN AND THEN ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA LATER THIS MORNING. THE SNOW AMTS EARLIER STILL LOOK MOSTLY
OK...AND ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE. A WIDE SWATH OF 6 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA WITH 4-6 SURROUNDING
THAT. THE LOWEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS AND NRN NJ
WHERE 2-4 INCHES SHOULD FALL. TEMPERATURE WILL NOT CLIMB MUCH TODAY
WITH A CONTINUATION OF CAA EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE STEADY SNOWS WILL PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY EARLY THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP FROM N/W TO S/E OVERNIGHT. THE LACK OF CLOUDS LATE AND THE FRESH
SNOW COVER SHOULD PRODUCE COLD TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS FAR NORTH. WIND CHILLS MAY
DROP TO NEAR -12 TO -15 ACROSS MOUNT POCONO...BUT REMAIN MORE LIKE 0
TO -10 ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NRLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THERMALLY, BUT IT
WAS A COLD OP RUN IN COMPARISON TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OTHER
MODELS. OVERALL AFTER TODAY, THE LONG TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AND NOT MUCH
PCPN EXPECTED.

A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NOT MUCH WIND. THE
ONE CATCH IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE, EVEN
IF IT WERE STILL JANUARY. MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THE FULL SUN
MACROS AND THE HIGHER NAM STAT GUIDANCE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT WE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF GOING EITHER WITH THE LOWER
STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN AREAS OR BELOW ALL FOR MINS GIVEN WE ARE
EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE
TROF THAT MIGHT SPILL SOME CLOUDS THROUGH PART OF THE NIGHT, ONLY
REASON WE DID NOT GO EVEN LOWER.

SATURDAY THE AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL START AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
REACHES THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAA PHASE OF THE CLIPPER WHICH SHOULD SLOW TEMP RISE A
BIT. WE ARE CLOSER TO NAM STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AS BY NOW
THE GEFS MEAN IS WARMER THAN THE OP GFS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT, CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA THAT THE WEAKENING
CLIPPER MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AS OF NOW APPEARS LIGHT IF THEY MAKE
IT. SUNDAY, THE MODERATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
CLIPPER`S DEMISE SHOULD NOT BRING ANY COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND BY THEN IT MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PTYPE TO FALL AS RAIN. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEPARATE WITH ITS PREDICTED PCPN FOR NOW
REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

THEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN
(INSTEAD OF TAKING THE POLAR ROUTE) FOR A CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING WITH
CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING TO IFR/LIFR IN SNOW. THE CHANGE-OVER HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED AT KRDG/KABE AND WILL SOON HAPPEN ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY
SITES. A FEW PERIODS OF SLEET ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PROBABLY WON`T LAST
TOO LONG AND WE`LL KEEP IT FROM THE TAFS WITH CONFID IN
LOCATION/TIMING RATHER LOW. SNOW WILL LOWER VSBYS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING BY EVENING OVER MOST
AREAS. A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED 23Z OR 00Z N/W AND 03Z TO 04Z S/E
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NW OR N AT 10 TO 15 KTS TODAY.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH ALONG
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR, LOCALLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR TODAY...AND EXTEND THE EXPIRATION TIME
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS AS CAA
CONTINUES. IT APPEARS THAT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNT RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS DEL BAY.
THERE WILL BE RAIN/SNOW EARLY TODAY...THEN SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY, NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OCCURRING ON
FRIDAY MORNING TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE OUTLOOKED TO PREVAIL MAINLY DUE A COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY
WEAK PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ALSO WHERE THERE WILL BE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LEVEL, IT SHOULD BE AT TIMES WHEN THE
AIR TEMPS WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE WATER TEMPS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TODAY (IF NOT ALREADY), THE
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM ARE LESSENING.
WE ARE STILL MONITORING GAGED SITES TO CHECK FOR JAMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

ASIDE FROM ATLANTIC CITY, MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ060-
     070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ009-
     010-012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 050822
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
322 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT AND THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT ARE
BOTH SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AND THERE APPEARS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
UPSTREAM STILL TO GO THROUGH. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THE SLOW DROP
ACROSS THE AREA AND RAIN HAS CHANGED TO SNOW ACROSS NE PA AND THE
LEHIGH VALLEY AS OF PRESS TIME. THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE
ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY BY DAWN AND THEN ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA LATER THIS MORNING. THE SNOW AMTS EARLIER STILL LOOK MOSTLY
OK...AND ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE. A WIDE SWATH OF 6 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA WITH 4-6 SURROUNDING
THAT. THE LOWEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS AND NRN NJ
WHERE 2-4 INCHES SHOULD FALL. TEMPERATURE WILL NOT CLIMB MUCH TODAY
WITH A CONTINUATION OF CAA EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE STEADY SNOWS WILL PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY EARLY THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP FROM N/W TO S/E OVERNIGHT. THE LACK OF CLOUDS LATE AND THE FRESH
SNOW COVER SHOULD PRODUCE COLD TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS FAR NORTH. WIND CHILLS MAY
DROP TO NEAR -12 TO -15 ACROSS MOUNT POCONO...BUT REMAIN MORE LIKE 0
TO -10 ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NRLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THERMALLY, BUT IT
WAS A COLD OP RUN IN COMPARISON TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OTHER
MODELS. OVERALL AFTER TODAY, THE LONG TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AND NOT MUCH
PCPN EXPECTED.

A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NOT MUCH WIND. THE
ONE CATCH IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE, EVEN
IF IT WERE STILL JANUARY. MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THE FULL SUN
MACROS AND THE HIGHER NAM STAT GUIDANCE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT WE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF GOING EITHER WITH THE LOWER
STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN AREAS OR BELOW ALL FOR MINS GIVEN WE ARE
EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE
TROF THAT MIGHT SPILL SOME CLOUDS THROUGH PART OF THE NIGHT, ONLY
REASON WE DID NOT GO EVEN LOWER.

SATURDAY THE AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL START AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
REACHES THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAA PHASE OF THE CLIPPER WHICH SHOULD SLOW TEMP RISE A
BIT. WE ARE CLOSER TO NAM STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AS BY NOW
THE GEFS MEAN IS WARMER THAN THE OP GFS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT, CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA THAT THE WEAKENING
CLIPPER MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AS OF NOW APPEARS LIGHT IF THEY MAKE
IT. SUNDAY, THE MODERATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
CLIPPER`S DEMISE SHOULD NOT BRING ANY COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND BY THEN IT MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PTYPE TO FALL AS RAIN. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEPARATE WITH ITS PREDICTED PCPN FOR NOW
REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

THEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN
(INSTEAD OF TAKING THE POLAR ROUTE) FOR A CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING WITH
CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING TO IFR/LIFR IN SNOW. THE CHANGE-OVER HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED AT KRDG/KABE AND WILL SOON HAPPEN ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY
SITES. A FEW PERIODS OF SLEET ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PROBABLY WON`T LAST
TOO LONG AND WE`LL KEEP IT FROM THE TAFS WITH CONFID IN
LOCATION/TIMING RATHER LOW. SNOW WILL LOWER VSBYS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING BY EVENING OVER MOST
AREAS. A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED 23Z OR 00Z N/W AND 03Z TO 04Z S/E
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NW OR N AT 10 TO 15 KTS TODAY.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH ALONG
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR, LOCALLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR TODAY...AND EXTEND THE EXPIRATION TIME
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS AS CAA
CONTINUES. IT APPEARS THAT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNT RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS DEL BAY.
THERE WILL BE RAIN/SNOW EARLY TODAY...THEN SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY, NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OCCURRING ON
FRIDAY MORNING TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE OUTLOOKED TO PREVAIL MAINLY DUE A COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY
WEAK PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ALSO WHERE THERE WILL BE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LEVEL, IT SHOULD BE AT TIMES WHEN THE
AIR TEMPS WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE WATER TEMPS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TODAY (IF NOT ALREADY), THE
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM ARE LESSENING.
WE ARE STILL MONITORING GAGED SITES TO CHECK FOR JAMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

ASIDE FROM ATLANTIC CITY, MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ060-
     070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ009-
     010-012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 050822
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
322 AM EST THU MAR 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION TODAY AND THIS EVENING. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
MOVE INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY AND THEN SINK TO THE SOUTHEAST ON
SATURDAY. A WEAK CLIPPER TYPE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD PASS
NORTH OF THE AREA ON SATURDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BRIEFLY BY ANOTHER
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PASS THROUGH THE
REGION ON MONDAY. ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN BUILD
INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT AND THE WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG IT ARE
BOTH SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE SHIELD OF PRECIPITATION
CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA AND THERE APPEARS TO BE PLENTY OF MOISTURE
UPSTREAM STILL TO GO THROUGH. TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THE SLOW DROP
ACROSS THE AREA AND RAIN HAS CHANGED TO SNOW ACROSS NE PA AND THE
LEHIGH VALLEY AS OF PRESS TIME. THE PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO CHANGE
ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY BY DAWN AND THEN ACROSS SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA LATER THIS MORNING. THE SNOW AMTS EARLIER STILL LOOK MOSTLY
OK...AND ONLY SLIGHT ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE. A WIDE SWATH OF 6 TO 8
INCHES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PARTS OF THE CWA WITH 4-6 SURROUNDING
THAT. THE LOWEST TOTALS WILL BE ACROSS THE SRN POCONOS AND NRN NJ
WHERE 2-4 INCHES SHOULD FALL. TEMPERATURE WILL NOT CLIMB MUCH TODAY
WITH A CONTINUATION OF CAA EXPECTED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE LAST OF THE STEADY SNOWS WILL PASS EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL BE CLOUDY EARLY THEN THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK
UP FROM N/W TO S/E OVERNIGHT. THE LACK OF CLOUDS LATE AND THE FRESH
SNOW COVER SHOULD PRODUCE COLD TEMPS OVERNIGHT...WITH LOWS IN THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND A FEW SUB-ZERO READINGS FAR NORTH. WIND CHILLS MAY
DROP TO NEAR -12 TO -15 ACROSS MOUNT POCONO...BUT REMAIN MORE LIKE 0
TO -10 ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NRLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED SLIGHTLY BETTER THERMALLY, BUT IT
WAS A COLD OP RUN IN COMPARISON TO ITS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND OTHER
MODELS. OVERALL AFTER TODAY, THE LONG TERM IS RELATIVELY QUIET
WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL VALUES AND NOT MUCH
PCPN EXPECTED.

A BRIGHT SUNNY DAY IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY WITH NOT MUCH WIND. THE
ONE CATCH IS THAT TEMPERATURES WILL BE WELL BELOW AVERAGE, EVEN
IF IT WERE STILL JANUARY. MAX TEMPS ARE CLOSE TO THE FULL SUN
MACROS AND THE HIGHER NAM STAT GUIDANCE.

ON FRIDAY NIGHT WE CONTINUED THE IDEA OF GOING EITHER WITH THE LOWER
STAT GUIDANCE IN URBAN AREAS OR BELOW ALL FOR MINS GIVEN WE ARE
EXPECTING RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. THERE IS A SHORT WAVE
TROF THAT MIGHT SPILL SOME CLOUDS THROUGH PART OF THE NIGHT, ONLY
REASON WE DID NOT GO EVEN LOWER.

SATURDAY THE AIR MASS RECOVERY WILL START AS A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
REACHES THE COAST. THERE SHOULD BE MORE CLOUDS AROUND ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WAA PHASE OF THE CLIPPER WHICH SHOULD SLOW TEMP RISE A
BIT. WE ARE CLOSER TO NAM STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS AS BY NOW
THE GEFS MEAN IS WARMER THAN THE OP GFS.

ON SATURDAY NIGHT, CONTINUED WITH THE IDEA THAT THE WEAKENING
CLIPPER MIGHT BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF OUR
CWA. PRECIPITATION INTENSITY AS OF NOW APPEARS LIGHT IF THEY MAKE
IT. SUNDAY, THE MODERATION TREND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE
CLIPPER`S DEMISE SHOULD NOT BRING ANY COLDER AIR BACK INTO THE
REGION.

A NORTHERN STREAM COLD FRONT COULD BRING THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS BACK
INTO THE AREA ON MONDAY AND BY THEN IT MIGHT BE WARM ENOUGH FOR THE
PTYPE TO FALL AS RAIN. A SOUTHERN STREAM LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SEPARATE WITH ITS PREDICTED PCPN FOR NOW
REMAINING SOUTHEAST OF OUR AREA.

THEN A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ENTERING FROM THE PACIFIC OCEAN
(INSTEAD OF TAKING THE POLAR ROUTE) FOR A CHANGE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO SEASONAL LEVELS FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE THIS MORNING WITH
CIGS/VSBYS DROPPING TO IFR/LIFR IN SNOW. THE CHANGE-OVER HAS ALREADY
OCCURRED AT KRDG/KABE AND WILL SOON HAPPEN ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY
SITES. A FEW PERIODS OF SLEET ARE POSSIBLE...BUT PROBABLY WON`T LAST
TOO LONG AND WE`LL KEEP IT FROM THE TAFS WITH CONFID IN
LOCATION/TIMING RATHER LOW. SNOW WILL LOWER VSBYS WILL OCCUR MUCH OF
THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE ENDING BY EVENING OVER MOST
AREAS. A RETURN TO VFR EXPECTED 23Z OR 00Z N/W AND 03Z TO 04Z S/E
WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY NW OR N AT 10 TO 15 KTS TODAY.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PRIMARILY VFR.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE, MAINLY NORTH ALONG
WITH A LOW CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...PRIMARILY VFR.

MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR, LOCALLY MVFR IN SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
WE WILL KEEP THE SCA FLAG FOR TODAY...AND EXTEND THE EXPIRATION TIME
INTO TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS AS CAA
CONTINUES. IT APPEARS THAT GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30 KNT RANGE ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE OCEAN WATERS AND AROUND 20 KTS ACROSS DEL BAY.
THERE WILL BE RAIN/SNOW EARLY TODAY...THEN SNOW INTO THE AFTERNOON.
FAIR WEATHER EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS SHOULD RETURN TO
SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS. FREEZING SPRAY IS LIKELY, NOT
CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY OCCURRING ON
FRIDAY MORNING TO ISSUE AN ADVISORY.

SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
ARE OUTLOOKED TO PREVAIL MAINLY DUE A COMBINATION OF RELATIVELY
WEAK PRESSURE SYSTEMS AND ALSO WHERE THERE WILL BE STRONGER WINDS
ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LEVEL, IT SHOULD BE AT TIMES WHEN THE
AIR TEMPS WILL BE HIGHER THAN THE WATER TEMPS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
WITH THE TRANSITION BACK TO SNOW TODAY (IF NOT ALREADY), THE
HYDROLOGICAL CONCERNS AT LEAST IN THE NEAR TERM ARE LESSENING.
WE ARE STILL MONITORING GAGED SITES TO CHECK FOR JAMS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

ASIDE FROM ATLANTIC CITY, MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL
DEGREES WARMER THAN THE RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ054-
     055-061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR PAZ060-
     070-071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ001-
     007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR NJZ009-
     010-012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     DEZ001>004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ008-
     012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GAINES/GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...GIGI/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 050423
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1123 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1120 PM: SNOW HAS STARTED IN THE POCONOS AND IS ACCUMULATING AT
BARTONSVILLE. THIS UPDATE IS TO CONFIRM THE CANCELLATION OF THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ALL PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH THIS
CANCELLATION.

945 PM: EVERYTHING IS NOW POSTED GRAPHICALLY AND I`M COMFORTABLE
WITH OUR FORECAST. ONE TO THREE INCHES BY DAYBREAK FROM NEAR
KPNE TO KBLM NORTHWESTWARD AND AMOUNTS INCREASING STEADILY
THEREAFTER SO THAT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE A DANGEROUS COMMUTE FOR
EASTERN PA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PART OF NJ. A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FCST ON SUBSTANTIAL TRAVEL PROBLEMS DEVELOPING THURSDAY MORNING.

915 PM: CHECKING THE NEW 00Z/5 NAM. I THINK WE`RE CLOSE TO WHAT
WILL OCCUR. AMOUNTS WITH AN INCH OR 2 VARIATION ON OUR NEW SNOW
MAP. WE`LL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT ITS MARGINAL AND
SOON SHOULD BLOW AWAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS.

835 PM: EARLY ESTF UPDATED FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ALSO
HAVE UPDATED DELAYED TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW PER REALITY
AND THE HRRR. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASED IN THE 00Z-06Z/5 TIME FRAME
AND ALSO DECREASED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE NEAR PHILADELPHIA IN THE
06Z- 12Z/5 TIME FRAME. INCREASED THE SNOWFALL IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME
FRAME TO COMPENSATE AND BALANCE AMOUNTS CLOSE TO OUR 330 PM FCST.
WILL UPDATE THE SNOW MAP AROUND 945 PM PENDING A QUICK CHECK OF
THE NAM. TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED THROUGH 14Z AS WERE DEWPOINTS
AND POPS TOO. REWORKED THE WX GRIDS WITH DELAYED CHANGE TO SNOW
AND ADDED HEAVY SNOW TO THE WORDING FOR THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH
ITS NOT A CLEAR CUT HEAVY. SNOW WATER RATIOS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO 8 TO 1 FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. SO THE BASIC MESSAGE IS
THE SAME AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR IS DESTINED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS
AND DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD WITH MANY DELAYS
ANTICIPATED, IF NOT CANCELLATIONS.

800PM UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN DELMARVA
INCLUDING ALL OF DELAWARE. NUMEROUS STATIONS ARE REPORTING
VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN FOG. APPARENTLY MELTING SNOW
EVAPORATED INTO THE LOWER ATMOS TODAY AND THEN SLIGHT COOLING
AROUND SUNDOWN ENABLED THE FOG TO FORM. NOT SURE HOW LONG FOG WILL
LAST BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

SOCIAL MEDIA HAS THE UPDATED WED EVENING BRIEFING PACKAGE AND
REQUEST FOR OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE MONITORING MOSTLY OUR SKYWARN
ACCOUNT AND PHI FB. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ALL YOUR ASSISTANCE
INCLUDING THE ENERGY TO HELP US DURING THE NIGHT. SAFETY FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES.

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT SUSSEX COUNTY
DELAWARE.

FGEN WHILE DECENT DOES NOT NECESSARILY FAVOR 1/4 TO ONE HALF MI
VSBY IN MDT TO HEAVY SNOW.  WE`VE PUT IT IN THERE, PER WPC QPF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/FOG VARIABLE LIFR IN PATCHY
DENSE FOG THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE COLDER NORTHWEST WIND
INCREASES, THE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR 1-2
HOURS AND THEN IFR SNOW OCCURS. PLEASE SEE THE TAFS FOR DETAILS.
CONFIDENCE IN MDT 1/2 MILE SNOW IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, I AM CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD PLOWING AND EXTENSIVE
DELAYS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE THURSDAY FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTH
AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING AFTER 12Z. NORTH WIND
GUSTS TO 18 KT BY 11Z THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...IFR SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 20S AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 20 KT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PLOWING OPERATIONS AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR 4-5
FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS NEAR
20KT ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK,
AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-070-
     071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
     008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
     012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1125P
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 050423
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1123 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1120 PM: SNOW HAS STARTED IN THE POCONOS AND IS ACCUMULATING AT
BARTONSVILLE. THIS UPDATE IS TO CONFIRM THE CANCELLATION OF THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ALL PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH THIS
CANCELLATION.

945 PM: EVERYTHING IS NOW POSTED GRAPHICALLY AND I`M COMFORTABLE
WITH OUR FORECAST. ONE TO THREE INCHES BY DAYBREAK FROM NEAR
KPNE TO KBLM NORTHWESTWARD AND AMOUNTS INCREASING STEADILY
THEREAFTER SO THAT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE A DANGEROUS COMMUTE FOR
EASTERN PA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PART OF NJ. A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FCST ON SUBSTANTIAL TRAVEL PROBLEMS DEVELOPING THURSDAY MORNING.

915 PM: CHECKING THE NEW 00Z/5 NAM. I THINK WE`RE CLOSE TO WHAT
WILL OCCUR. AMOUNTS WITH AN INCH OR 2 VARIATION ON OUR NEW SNOW
MAP. WE`LL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT ITS MARGINAL AND
SOON SHOULD BLOW AWAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS.

835 PM: EARLY ESTF UPDATED FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ALSO
HAVE UPDATED DELAYED TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW PER REALITY
AND THE HRRR. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASED IN THE 00Z-06Z/5 TIME FRAME
AND ALSO DECREASED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE NEAR PHILADELPHIA IN THE
06Z- 12Z/5 TIME FRAME. INCREASED THE SNOWFALL IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME
FRAME TO COMPENSATE AND BALANCE AMOUNTS CLOSE TO OUR 330 PM FCST.
WILL UPDATE THE SNOW MAP AROUND 945 PM PENDING A QUICK CHECK OF
THE NAM. TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED THROUGH 14Z AS WERE DEWPOINTS
AND POPS TOO. REWORKED THE WX GRIDS WITH DELAYED CHANGE TO SNOW
AND ADDED HEAVY SNOW TO THE WORDING FOR THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH
ITS NOT A CLEAR CUT HEAVY. SNOW WATER RATIOS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO 8 TO 1 FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. SO THE BASIC MESSAGE IS
THE SAME AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR IS DESTINED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS
AND DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD WITH MANY DELAYS
ANTICIPATED, IF NOT CANCELLATIONS.

800PM UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN DELMARVA
INCLUDING ALL OF DELAWARE. NUMEROUS STATIONS ARE REPORTING
VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN FOG. APPARENTLY MELTING SNOW
EVAPORATED INTO THE LOWER ATMOS TODAY AND THEN SLIGHT COOLING
AROUND SUNDOWN ENABLED THE FOG TO FORM. NOT SURE HOW LONG FOG WILL
LAST BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

SOCIAL MEDIA HAS THE UPDATED WED EVENING BRIEFING PACKAGE AND
REQUEST FOR OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE MONITORING MOSTLY OUR SKYWARN
ACCOUNT AND PHI FB. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ALL YOUR ASSISTANCE
INCLUDING THE ENERGY TO HELP US DURING THE NIGHT. SAFETY FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES.

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT SUSSEX COUNTY
DELAWARE.

FGEN WHILE DECENT DOES NOT NECESSARILY FAVOR 1/4 TO ONE HALF MI
VSBY IN MDT TO HEAVY SNOW.  WE`VE PUT IT IN THERE, PER WPC QPF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/FOG VARIABLE LIFR IN PATCHY
DENSE FOG THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE COLDER NORTHWEST WIND
INCREASES, THE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR 1-2
HOURS AND THEN IFR SNOW OCCURS. PLEASE SEE THE TAFS FOR DETAILS.
CONFIDENCE IN MDT 1/2 MILE SNOW IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, I AM CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD PLOWING AND EXTENSIVE
DELAYS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE THURSDAY FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTH
AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING AFTER 12Z. NORTH WIND
GUSTS TO 18 KT BY 11Z THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...IFR SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 20S AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 20 KT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PLOWING OPERATIONS AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR 4-5
FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS NEAR
20KT ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK,
AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-070-
     071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
     008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
     012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1125P
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 050423
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1123 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1120 PM: SNOW HAS STARTED IN THE POCONOS AND IS ACCUMULATING AT
BARTONSVILLE. THIS UPDATE IS TO CONFIRM THE CANCELLATION OF THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ALL PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH THIS
CANCELLATION.

945 PM: EVERYTHING IS NOW POSTED GRAPHICALLY AND I`M COMFORTABLE
WITH OUR FORECAST. ONE TO THREE INCHES BY DAYBREAK FROM NEAR
KPNE TO KBLM NORTHWESTWARD AND AMOUNTS INCREASING STEADILY
THEREAFTER SO THAT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE A DANGEROUS COMMUTE FOR
EASTERN PA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PART OF NJ. A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FCST ON SUBSTANTIAL TRAVEL PROBLEMS DEVELOPING THURSDAY MORNING.

915 PM: CHECKING THE NEW 00Z/5 NAM. I THINK WE`RE CLOSE TO WHAT
WILL OCCUR. AMOUNTS WITH AN INCH OR 2 VARIATION ON OUR NEW SNOW
MAP. WE`LL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT ITS MARGINAL AND
SOON SHOULD BLOW AWAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS.

835 PM: EARLY ESTF UPDATED FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ALSO
HAVE UPDATED DELAYED TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW PER REALITY
AND THE HRRR. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASED IN THE 00Z-06Z/5 TIME FRAME
AND ALSO DECREASED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE NEAR PHILADELPHIA IN THE
06Z- 12Z/5 TIME FRAME. INCREASED THE SNOWFALL IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME
FRAME TO COMPENSATE AND BALANCE AMOUNTS CLOSE TO OUR 330 PM FCST.
WILL UPDATE THE SNOW MAP AROUND 945 PM PENDING A QUICK CHECK OF
THE NAM. TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED THROUGH 14Z AS WERE DEWPOINTS
AND POPS TOO. REWORKED THE WX GRIDS WITH DELAYED CHANGE TO SNOW
AND ADDED HEAVY SNOW TO THE WORDING FOR THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH
ITS NOT A CLEAR CUT HEAVY. SNOW WATER RATIOS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO 8 TO 1 FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. SO THE BASIC MESSAGE IS
THE SAME AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR IS DESTINED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS
AND DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD WITH MANY DELAYS
ANTICIPATED, IF NOT CANCELLATIONS.

800PM UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN DELMARVA
INCLUDING ALL OF DELAWARE. NUMEROUS STATIONS ARE REPORTING
VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN FOG. APPARENTLY MELTING SNOW
EVAPORATED INTO THE LOWER ATMOS TODAY AND THEN SLIGHT COOLING
AROUND SUNDOWN ENABLED THE FOG TO FORM. NOT SURE HOW LONG FOG WILL
LAST BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

SOCIAL MEDIA HAS THE UPDATED WED EVENING BRIEFING PACKAGE AND
REQUEST FOR OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE MONITORING MOSTLY OUR SKYWARN
ACCOUNT AND PHI FB. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ALL YOUR ASSISTANCE
INCLUDING THE ENERGY TO HELP US DURING THE NIGHT. SAFETY FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES.

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT SUSSEX COUNTY
DELAWARE.

FGEN WHILE DECENT DOES NOT NECESSARILY FAVOR 1/4 TO ONE HALF MI
VSBY IN MDT TO HEAVY SNOW.  WE`VE PUT IT IN THERE, PER WPC QPF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/FOG VARIABLE LIFR IN PATCHY
DENSE FOG THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE COLDER NORTHWEST WIND
INCREASES, THE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR 1-2
HOURS AND THEN IFR SNOW OCCURS. PLEASE SEE THE TAFS FOR DETAILS.
CONFIDENCE IN MDT 1/2 MILE SNOW IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, I AM CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD PLOWING AND EXTENSIVE
DELAYS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE THURSDAY FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTH
AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING AFTER 12Z. NORTH WIND
GUSTS TO 18 KT BY 11Z THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...IFR SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 20S AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 20 KT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PLOWING OPERATIONS AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR 4-5
FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS NEAR
20KT ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK,
AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-070-
     071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
     008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
     012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1125P
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 050423
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1123 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1120 PM: SNOW HAS STARTED IN THE POCONOS AND IS ACCUMULATING AT
BARTONSVILLE. THIS UPDATE IS TO CONFIRM THE CANCELLATION OF THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ALL PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH THIS
CANCELLATION.

945 PM: EVERYTHING IS NOW POSTED GRAPHICALLY AND I`M COMFORTABLE
WITH OUR FORECAST. ONE TO THREE INCHES BY DAYBREAK FROM NEAR
KPNE TO KBLM NORTHWESTWARD AND AMOUNTS INCREASING STEADILY
THEREAFTER SO THAT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE A DANGEROUS COMMUTE FOR
EASTERN PA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PART OF NJ. A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FCST ON SUBSTANTIAL TRAVEL PROBLEMS DEVELOPING THURSDAY MORNING.

915 PM: CHECKING THE NEW 00Z/5 NAM. I THINK WE`RE CLOSE TO WHAT
WILL OCCUR. AMOUNTS WITH AN INCH OR 2 VARIATION ON OUR NEW SNOW
MAP. WE`LL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT ITS MARGINAL AND
SOON SHOULD BLOW AWAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS.

835 PM: EARLY ESTF UPDATED FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ALSO
HAVE UPDATED DELAYED TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW PER REALITY
AND THE HRRR. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASED IN THE 00Z-06Z/5 TIME FRAME
AND ALSO DECREASED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE NEAR PHILADELPHIA IN THE
06Z- 12Z/5 TIME FRAME. INCREASED THE SNOWFALL IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME
FRAME TO COMPENSATE AND BALANCE AMOUNTS CLOSE TO OUR 330 PM FCST.
WILL UPDATE THE SNOW MAP AROUND 945 PM PENDING A QUICK CHECK OF
THE NAM. TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED THROUGH 14Z AS WERE DEWPOINTS
AND POPS TOO. REWORKED THE WX GRIDS WITH DELAYED CHANGE TO SNOW
AND ADDED HEAVY SNOW TO THE WORDING FOR THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH
ITS NOT A CLEAR CUT HEAVY. SNOW WATER RATIOS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO 8 TO 1 FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. SO THE BASIC MESSAGE IS
THE SAME AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR IS DESTINED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS
AND DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD WITH MANY DELAYS
ANTICIPATED, IF NOT CANCELLATIONS.

800PM UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN DELMARVA
INCLUDING ALL OF DELAWARE. NUMEROUS STATIONS ARE REPORTING
VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN FOG. APPARENTLY MELTING SNOW
EVAPORATED INTO THE LOWER ATMOS TODAY AND THEN SLIGHT COOLING
AROUND SUNDOWN ENABLED THE FOG TO FORM. NOT SURE HOW LONG FOG WILL
LAST BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

SOCIAL MEDIA HAS THE UPDATED WED EVENING BRIEFING PACKAGE AND
REQUEST FOR OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE MONITORING MOSTLY OUR SKYWARN
ACCOUNT AND PHI FB. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ALL YOUR ASSISTANCE
INCLUDING THE ENERGY TO HELP US DURING THE NIGHT. SAFETY FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES.

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT SUSSEX COUNTY
DELAWARE.

FGEN WHILE DECENT DOES NOT NECESSARILY FAVOR 1/4 TO ONE HALF MI
VSBY IN MDT TO HEAVY SNOW.  WE`VE PUT IT IN THERE, PER WPC QPF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/FOG VARIABLE LIFR IN PATCHY
DENSE FOG THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE COLDER NORTHWEST WIND
INCREASES, THE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR 1-2
HOURS AND THEN IFR SNOW OCCURS. PLEASE SEE THE TAFS FOR DETAILS.
CONFIDENCE IN MDT 1/2 MILE SNOW IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, I AM CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD PLOWING AND EXTENSIVE
DELAYS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE THURSDAY FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTH
AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING AFTER 12Z. NORTH WIND
GUSTS TO 18 KT BY 11Z THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...IFR SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 20S AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 20 KT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PLOWING OPERATIONS AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR 4-5
FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS NEAR
20KT ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK,
AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-070-
     071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
     008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
     012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1125P
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 050423
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1123 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1120 PM: SNOW HAS STARTED IN THE POCONOS AND IS ACCUMULATING AT
BARTONSVILLE. THIS UPDATE IS TO CONFIRM THE CANCELLATION OF THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ALL PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH THIS
CANCELLATION.

945 PM: EVERYTHING IS NOW POSTED GRAPHICALLY AND I`M COMFORTABLE
WITH OUR FORECAST. ONE TO THREE INCHES BY DAYBREAK FROM NEAR
KPNE TO KBLM NORTHWESTWARD AND AMOUNTS INCREASING STEADILY
THEREAFTER SO THAT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE A DANGEROUS COMMUTE FOR
EASTERN PA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PART OF NJ. A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FCST ON SUBSTANTIAL TRAVEL PROBLEMS DEVELOPING THURSDAY MORNING.

915 PM: CHECKING THE NEW 00Z/5 NAM. I THINK WE`RE CLOSE TO WHAT
WILL OCCUR. AMOUNTS WITH AN INCH OR 2 VARIATION ON OUR NEW SNOW
MAP. WE`LL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT ITS MARGINAL AND
SOON SHOULD BLOW AWAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS.

835 PM: EARLY ESTF UPDATED FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ALSO
HAVE UPDATED DELAYED TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW PER REALITY
AND THE HRRR. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASED IN THE 00Z-06Z/5 TIME FRAME
AND ALSO DECREASED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE NEAR PHILADELPHIA IN THE
06Z- 12Z/5 TIME FRAME. INCREASED THE SNOWFALL IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME
FRAME TO COMPENSATE AND BALANCE AMOUNTS CLOSE TO OUR 330 PM FCST.
WILL UPDATE THE SNOW MAP AROUND 945 PM PENDING A QUICK CHECK OF
THE NAM. TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED THROUGH 14Z AS WERE DEWPOINTS
AND POPS TOO. REWORKED THE WX GRIDS WITH DELAYED CHANGE TO SNOW
AND ADDED HEAVY SNOW TO THE WORDING FOR THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH
ITS NOT A CLEAR CUT HEAVY. SNOW WATER RATIOS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO 8 TO 1 FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. SO THE BASIC MESSAGE IS
THE SAME AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR IS DESTINED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS
AND DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD WITH MANY DELAYS
ANTICIPATED, IF NOT CANCELLATIONS.

800PM UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN DELMARVA
INCLUDING ALL OF DELAWARE. NUMEROUS STATIONS ARE REPORTING
VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN FOG. APPARENTLY MELTING SNOW
EVAPORATED INTO THE LOWER ATMOS TODAY AND THEN SLIGHT COOLING
AROUND SUNDOWN ENABLED THE FOG TO FORM. NOT SURE HOW LONG FOG WILL
LAST BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

SOCIAL MEDIA HAS THE UPDATED WED EVENING BRIEFING PACKAGE AND
REQUEST FOR OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE MONITORING MOSTLY OUR SKYWARN
ACCOUNT AND PHI FB. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ALL YOUR ASSISTANCE
INCLUDING THE ENERGY TO HELP US DURING THE NIGHT. SAFETY FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES.

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT SUSSEX COUNTY
DELAWARE.

FGEN WHILE DECENT DOES NOT NECESSARILY FAVOR 1/4 TO ONE HALF MI
VSBY IN MDT TO HEAVY SNOW.  WE`VE PUT IT IN THERE, PER WPC QPF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/FOG VARIABLE LIFR IN PATCHY
DENSE FOG THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE COLDER NORTHWEST WIND
INCREASES, THE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR 1-2
HOURS AND THEN IFR SNOW OCCURS. PLEASE SEE THE TAFS FOR DETAILS.
CONFIDENCE IN MDT 1/2 MILE SNOW IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, I AM CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD PLOWING AND EXTENSIVE
DELAYS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE THURSDAY FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTH
AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING AFTER 12Z. NORTH WIND
GUSTS TO 18 KT BY 11Z THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...IFR SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 20S AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 20 KT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PLOWING OPERATIONS AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR 4-5
FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS NEAR
20KT ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK,
AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-070-
     071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
     008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
     012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1125P
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 050423
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1123 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
1120 PM: SNOW HAS STARTED IN THE POCONOS AND IS ACCUMULATING AT
BARTONSVILLE. THIS UPDATE IS TO CONFIRM THE CANCELLATION OF THE
DENSE FOG ADVISORY. ALL PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN UPDATED WITH THIS
CANCELLATION.

945 PM: EVERYTHING IS NOW POSTED GRAPHICALLY AND I`M COMFORTABLE
WITH OUR FORECAST. ONE TO THREE INCHES BY DAYBREAK FROM NEAR
KPNE TO KBLM NORTHWESTWARD AND AMOUNTS INCREASING STEADILY
THEREAFTER SO THAT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE A DANGEROUS COMMUTE FOR
EASTERN PA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PART OF NJ. A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FCST ON SUBSTANTIAL TRAVEL PROBLEMS DEVELOPING THURSDAY MORNING.

915 PM: CHECKING THE NEW 00Z/5 NAM. I THINK WE`RE CLOSE TO WHAT
WILL OCCUR. AMOUNTS WITH AN INCH OR 2 VARIATION ON OUR NEW SNOW
MAP. WE`LL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT ITS MARGINAL AND
SOON SHOULD BLOW AWAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS.

835 PM: EARLY ESTF UPDATED FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ALSO
HAVE UPDATED DELAYED TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW PER REALITY
AND THE HRRR. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASED IN THE 00Z-06Z/5 TIME FRAME
AND ALSO DECREASED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE NEAR PHILADELPHIA IN THE
06Z- 12Z/5 TIME FRAME. INCREASED THE SNOWFALL IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME
FRAME TO COMPENSATE AND BALANCE AMOUNTS CLOSE TO OUR 330 PM FCST.
WILL UPDATE THE SNOW MAP AROUND 945 PM PENDING A QUICK CHECK OF
THE NAM. TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED THROUGH 14Z AS WERE DEWPOINTS
AND POPS TOO. REWORKED THE WX GRIDS WITH DELAYED CHANGE TO SNOW
AND ADDED HEAVY SNOW TO THE WORDING FOR THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH
ITS NOT A CLEAR CUT HEAVY. SNOW WATER RATIOS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO 8 TO 1 FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. SO THE BASIC MESSAGE IS
THE SAME AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR IS DESTINED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS
AND DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD WITH MANY DELAYS
ANTICIPATED, IF NOT CANCELLATIONS.

800PM UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN DELMARVA
INCLUDING ALL OF DELAWARE. NUMEROUS STATIONS ARE REPORTING
VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN FOG. APPARENTLY MELTING SNOW
EVAPORATED INTO THE LOWER ATMOS TODAY AND THEN SLIGHT COOLING
AROUND SUNDOWN ENABLED THE FOG TO FORM. NOT SURE HOW LONG FOG WILL
LAST BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

SOCIAL MEDIA HAS THE UPDATED WED EVENING BRIEFING PACKAGE AND
REQUEST FOR OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE MONITORING MOSTLY OUR SKYWARN
ACCOUNT AND PHI FB. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ALL YOUR ASSISTANCE
INCLUDING THE ENERGY TO HELP US DURING THE NIGHT. SAFETY FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES.

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT SUSSEX COUNTY
DELAWARE.

FGEN WHILE DECENT DOES NOT NECESSARILY FAVOR 1/4 TO ONE HALF MI
VSBY IN MDT TO HEAVY SNOW.  WE`VE PUT IT IN THERE, PER WPC QPF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/FOG VARIABLE LIFR IN PATCHY
DENSE FOG THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE COLDER NORTHWEST WIND
INCREASES, THE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR 1-2
HOURS AND THEN IFR SNOW OCCURS. PLEASE SEE THE TAFS FOR DETAILS.
CONFIDENCE IN MDT 1/2 MILE SNOW IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, I AM CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD PLOWING AND EXTENSIVE
DELAYS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE THURSDAY FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTH
AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING AFTER 12Z. NORTH WIND
GUSTS TO 18 KT BY 11Z THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...IFR SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 20S AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 20 KT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PLOWING OPERATIONS AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR 4-5
FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS NEAR
20KT ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK,
AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-070-
     071-101>106.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
     008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
     012>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG 1125P
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 050250
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
950 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
945 PM: EVERYTHING IS NOW POSTED GRAPHICALLY AND I`M COMFORTABLE
WITH OUR FORECAST. ONE TO THREE INCHES BY DAYBREAK FROM NEAR
KPNE TO KBLM NORTHWESTWARD AND AMOUNTS INCREASING STEADILY
THEREAFTER SO THAT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE A DANGEROUS COMMUTE FOR
EASTERN PA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PART OF NJ. A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FCST ON SUBSTANTIAL TRAVEL PROBLEMS DEVELOPING THURSDAY MORNING.

915 PM: CHECKING THE NEW 00Z/5 NAM. I THINK WE`RE CLOSE TO WHAT
WILL OCCUR. AMOUNTS WITH AN INCH OR 2 VARIATION ON OUR NEW SNOW
MAP. WE`LL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT ITS MARGINAL AND
SOON SHOULD BLOW AWAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS.

835 PM: EARLY ESTF UPDATED FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ALSO
HAVE UPDATED DELAYED TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW PER REALITY
AND THE HRRR. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASED IN THE 00Z-06Z/5 TIME FRAME
AND ALSO DECREASED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE NEAR PHILADELPHIA IN THE
06Z- 12Z/5 TIME FRAME. INCREASED THE SNOWFALL IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME
FRAME TO COMPENSATE AND BALANCE AMOUNTS CLOSE TO OUR 330 PM FCST.
WILL UPDATE THE SNOW MAP AROUND 945 PM PENDING A QUICK CHECK OF
THE NAM. TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED THROUGH 14Z AS WERE DEWPOINTS
AND POPS TOO. REWORKED THE WX GRIDS WITH DELAYED CHANGE TO SNOW
AND ADDED HEAVY SNOW TO THE WORDING FOR THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH
ITS NOT A CLEAR CUT HEAVY. SNOW WATER RATIOS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO 8 TO 1 FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. SO THE BASIC MESSAGE IS
THE SAME AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR IS DESTINED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS
AND DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD WITH MANY DELAYS
ANTICIPATED, IF NOT CANCELLATIONS.

800PM UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN DELMARVA
INCLUDING ALL OF DELAWARE. NUMEROUS STATIONS ARE REPORTING
VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN FOG. APPARENTLY MELTING SNOW
EVAPORATED INTO THE LOWER ATMOS TODAY AND THEN SLIGHT COOLING
AROUND SUNDOWN ENABLED THE FOG TO FORM. NOT SURE HOW LONG FOG WILL
LAST BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

SOCIAL MEDIA HAS THE UPDATED WED EVENING BRIEFING PACKAGE AND
REQUEST FOR OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE MONITORING MOSTLY OUR SKYWARN
ACCOUNT AND PHI FB. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ALL YOUR ASSISTANCE
INCLUDING THE ENERGY TO HELP US DURING THE NIGHT. SAFETY FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES.

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT SUSSEX COUNTY
DELAWARE.

FGEN WHILE DECENT DOES NOT NECESSARILY FAVOR 1/4 TO ONE HALF MI
VSBY IN MDT TO HEAVY SNOW.  WE`VE PUT IT IN THERE, PER WPC QPF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/FOG VARIABLE LIFR IN PATCHY
DENSE FOG THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE COLDER NORTHWEST WIND
INCREASES, THE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR 1-2
HOURS AND THEN IFR SNOW OCCURS. PLEASE SEE THE TAFS FOR DETAILS.
CONFIDENCE IN MDT 1/2 MILE SNOW IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, I AM CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD PLOWING AND EXTENSIVE
DELAYS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE THURSDAY FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTH
AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING AFTER 12Z. NORTH WIND
GUSTS TO 18 KT BY 11Z THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...IFR SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 20S AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 20 KT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PLOWING OPERATIONS AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR 4-5
FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS NEAR
20KT ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK,
AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-
     101>106.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
     008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
     012-015.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ015>027.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-
     016>027.
DE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...AMC/DRAG 951
SHORT TERM...DRAG 951
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 951
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 050250
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
950 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
945 PM: EVERYTHING IS NOW POSTED GRAPHICALLY AND I`M COMFORTABLE
WITH OUR FORECAST. ONE TO THREE INCHES BY DAYBREAK FROM NEAR
KPNE TO KBLM NORTHWESTWARD AND AMOUNTS INCREASING STEADILY
THEREAFTER SO THAT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE A DANGEROUS COMMUTE FOR
EASTERN PA AND MUCH OF THE NORTHERN PART OF NJ. A HIGH CONFIDENCE
FCST ON SUBSTANTIAL TRAVEL PROBLEMS DEVELOPING THURSDAY MORNING.

915 PM: CHECKING THE NEW 00Z/5 NAM. I THINK WE`RE CLOSE TO WHAT
WILL OCCUR. AMOUNTS WITH AN INCH OR 2 VARIATION ON OUR NEW SNOW
MAP. WE`LL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT ITS MARGINAL AND
SOON SHOULD BLOW AWAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS.

835 PM: EARLY ESTF UPDATED FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ALSO
HAVE UPDATED DELAYED TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW PER REALITY
AND THE HRRR. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASED IN THE 00Z-06Z/5 TIME FRAME
AND ALSO DECREASED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE NEAR PHILADELPHIA IN THE
06Z- 12Z/5 TIME FRAME. INCREASED THE SNOWFALL IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME
FRAME TO COMPENSATE AND BALANCE AMOUNTS CLOSE TO OUR 330 PM FCST.
WILL UPDATE THE SNOW MAP AROUND 945 PM PENDING A QUICK CHECK OF
THE NAM. TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED THROUGH 14Z AS WERE DEWPOINTS
AND POPS TOO. REWORKED THE WX GRIDS WITH DELAYED CHANGE TO SNOW
AND ADDED HEAVY SNOW TO THE WORDING FOR THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH
ITS NOT A CLEAR CUT HEAVY. SNOW WATER RATIOS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO 8 TO 1 FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. SO THE BASIC MESSAGE IS
THE SAME AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR IS DESTINED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS
AND DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD WITH MANY DELAYS
ANTICIPATED, IF NOT CANCELLATIONS.

800PM UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN DELMARVA
INCLUDING ALL OF DELAWARE. NUMEROUS STATIONS ARE REPORTING
VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN FOG. APPARENTLY MELTING SNOW
EVAPORATED INTO THE LOWER ATMOS TODAY AND THEN SLIGHT COOLING
AROUND SUNDOWN ENABLED THE FOG TO FORM. NOT SURE HOW LONG FOG WILL
LAST BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

SOCIAL MEDIA HAS THE UPDATED WED EVENING BRIEFING PACKAGE AND
REQUEST FOR OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE MONITORING MOSTLY OUR SKYWARN
ACCOUNT AND PHI FB. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ALL YOUR ASSISTANCE
INCLUDING THE ENERGY TO HELP US DURING THE NIGHT. SAFETY FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES.

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT SUSSEX COUNTY
DELAWARE.

FGEN WHILE DECENT DOES NOT NECESSARILY FAVOR 1/4 TO ONE HALF MI
VSBY IN MDT TO HEAVY SNOW.  WE`VE PUT IT IN THERE, PER WPC QPF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/FOG VARIABLE LIFR IN PATCHY
DENSE FOG THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE COLDER NORTHWEST WIND
INCREASES, THE CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR 1-2
HOURS AND THEN IFR SNOW OCCURS. PLEASE SEE THE TAFS FOR DETAILS.
CONFIDENCE IN MDT 1/2 MILE SNOW IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, I AM CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD PLOWING AND EXTENSIVE
DELAYS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE THURSDAY FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTH
AND THEN SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING AFTER 12Z. NORTH WIND
GUSTS TO 18 KT BY 11Z THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...IFR SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 20S AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 20 KT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PLOWING OPERATIONS AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR 4-5
FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS NEAR
20KT ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK,
AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-
     101>106.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
     008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
     012-015.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ015>027.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-
     016>027.
DE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...AMC/DRAG 951
SHORT TERM...DRAG 951
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 951
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 050214
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
914 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
915 PM: CHECKING THE NEW 00Z/5 NAM. I THINK WE`RE CLOSE TO WHAT
WILL OCCUR. AMOUNTS WITH AN INCH OR 2 VARIATION ON OUR NEW SNOW
MAP. WE`LL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT ITS MARGINAL AND
SOON SHOULD BLOW AWAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS.

835 PM: EARLY ESTF UPDATED FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ALSO
HAVE UPDATED DELAYED TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW PER REALITY
AND THE HRRR. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASED IN THE 00Z-06Z/5 TIME FRAME
AND ALSO DECREASED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE NEAR PHILADELPHIA IN THE
06Z- 12Z/5 TIME FRAME. INCREASED THE SNOWFALL IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME
FRAME TO COMPENSATE AND BALANCE AMOUNTS CLOSE TO OUR 330 PM FCST.
WILL UPDATE THE SNOW MAP AROUND 945 PM PENDING A QUICK CHECK OF
THE NAM. TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED THROUGH 14Z AS WERE DEWPOINTS
AND POPS TOO. REWORKED THE WX GRIDS WITH DELAYED CHANGE TO SNOW
AND ADDED HEAVY SNOW TO THE WORDING FOR THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH
ITS NOT A CLEAR CUT HEAVY. SNOW WATER RATIOS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO 8 TO 1 FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. SO THE BASIC MESSAGE IS
THE SAME AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR IS DESTINED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS
AND DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD WITH MANY DELAYS
ANTICIPATED, IF NOT CANCELLATIONS.

800PM UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN DELMARVA
INCLUDING ALL OF DELAWARE. NUMEROUS STATIONS ARE REPORTING
VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN FOG. APPARENTLY MELTING SNOW
EVAPORATED INTO THE LOWER ATMOS TODAY AND THEN SLIGHT COOLING
AROUND SUNDOWN ENABLED THE FOG TO FORM. NOT SURE HOW LONG FOG WILL
LAST BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

SOCIAL MEDIA HAS THE UPDATED WED EVENING BRIEFING PACKAGE AND
REQUEST FOR OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE MONITORING MOSTLY OUR SKYWARN
ACCOUNT AND PHI FB. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ALL YOUR ASSISTANCE
INCLUDING THE ENERGY TO HELP US DURING THE NIGHT. SAFETY FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES.

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT SUSSEX COUNTY
DELAWARE.

FGEN WHILE DECENT DOES NOT NECESSARILY FAVOR 1/4 TO ONE HALF MI
VSBY IN MDT TO HEAVY SNOW.  WE`VE PUT IT IN THERE, PER WPC QPF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/FOG VARIABLE LIFR IN PATCHY DENSE FOG
THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE COLDER NORTHWEST WIND INCREASES, THE
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR 1-2 HOURS AND THEN IFR
SNOW OCCURS. PLEASE SEE THE 00Z TAFS FOR DETAILS. CONFIDENCE IN
MDT 1/2 MILE SNOW IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER, I AM
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD PLOWING AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS WILL
DEVELOP BY SUNRISE THURSDAY FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTH AND THEN
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING AFTER 12Z. NORTH WIND GUSTS TO
18 KT BY 11Z THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...IFR SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 20S AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 20 KT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PLOWING OPERATIONS AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK,
AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-
     101>106.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
     008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
     012-015.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ015>027.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-
     016>027.
DE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...AMC/DRAG 915
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 050214
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
914 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
915 PM: CHECKING THE NEW 00Z/5 NAM. I THINK WE`RE CLOSE TO WHAT
WILL OCCUR. AMOUNTS WITH AN INCH OR 2 VARIATION ON OUR NEW SNOW
MAP. WE`LL CONTINUE THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY BUT ITS MARGINAL AND
SOON SHOULD BLOW AWAY AS COLD AIR ADVECTION DEVELOPS.

835 PM: EARLY ESTF UPDATED FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ALSO
HAVE UPDATED DELAYED TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW PER REALITY
AND THE HRRR. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASED IN THE 00Z-06Z/5 TIME FRAME
AND ALSO DECREASED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE NEAR PHILADELPHIA IN THE
06Z- 12Z/5 TIME FRAME. INCREASED THE SNOWFALL IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME
FRAME TO COMPENSATE AND BALANCE AMOUNTS CLOSE TO OUR 330 PM FCST.
WILL UPDATE THE SNOW MAP AROUND 945 PM PENDING A QUICK CHECK OF
THE NAM. TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED THROUGH 14Z AS WERE DEWPOINTS
AND POPS TOO. REWORKED THE WX GRIDS WITH DELAYED CHANGE TO SNOW
AND ADDED HEAVY SNOW TO THE WORDING FOR THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH
ITS NOT A CLEAR CUT HEAVY. SNOW WATER RATIOS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO 8 TO 1 FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. SO THE BASIC MESSAGE IS
THE SAME AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR IS DESTINED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS
AND DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD WITH MANY DELAYS
ANTICIPATED, IF NOT CANCELLATIONS.

800PM UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN DELMARVA
INCLUDING ALL OF DELAWARE. NUMEROUS STATIONS ARE REPORTING
VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN FOG. APPARENTLY MELTING SNOW
EVAPORATED INTO THE LOWER ATMOS TODAY AND THEN SLIGHT COOLING
AROUND SUNDOWN ENABLED THE FOG TO FORM. NOT SURE HOW LONG FOG WILL
LAST BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

SOCIAL MEDIA HAS THE UPDATED WED EVENING BRIEFING PACKAGE AND
REQUEST FOR OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE MONITORING MOSTLY OUR SKYWARN
ACCOUNT AND PHI FB. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ALL YOUR ASSISTANCE
INCLUDING THE ENERGY TO HELP US DURING THE NIGHT. SAFETY FIRST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES.

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT SUSSEX COUNTY
DELAWARE.

FGEN WHILE DECENT DOES NOT NECESSARILY FAVOR 1/4 TO ONE HALF MI
VSBY IN MDT TO HEAVY SNOW.  WE`VE PUT IT IN THERE, PER WPC QPF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/FOG VARIABLE LIFR IN PATCHY DENSE FOG
THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE COLDER NORTHWEST WIND INCREASES, THE
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR 1-2 HOURS AND THEN IFR
SNOW OCCURS. PLEASE SEE THE 00Z TAFS FOR DETAILS. CONFIDENCE IN
MDT 1/2 MILE SNOW IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER, I AM
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD PLOWING AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS WILL
DEVELOP BY SUNRISE THURSDAY FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTH AND THEN
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING AFTER 12Z. NORTH WIND GUSTS TO
18 KT BY 11Z THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...IFR SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 20S AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 20 KT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PLOWING OPERATIONS AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK,
AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-
     101>106.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
     008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
     012-015.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ015>027.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-
     016>027.
DE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...AMC/DRAG 915
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 050147
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
847 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
835 PM: EARLY ESTF UPDATED FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ALSO
HAVE UPDATED DELAYED TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW PER REALITY
AND THE HRRR. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASED IN THE 00Z-06Z/5 TIME FRAME
AND ALSO DECREASED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE NEAR PHILADELPHIA IN THE
06Z-12Z/5 TIME FRAME. INCREASED THE SNOWFALL IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME
FRAME TO COMPENSATE AND BALANCE AMOUNTS CLOSE TO OUR 330 PM FCST.
WILL UPDATE THE SNOW MAP AROUND 945 PM PENDING A QUICK CHECK OF
THE NAM. TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED THROUGH 14Z AS WERE DEWPOINTS
AND POPS TOO. REWORKED THE WX GRIDS WITH DELAYED CHANGE TO SNOW
AND ADDED HEAVY SNOW TO THE WORDING FOR THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH
ITS NOT A CLEAR CUT HEAVY. SNOW WATER RATIOS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO 8 TO 1 FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. SO THE BASIC MESSAGE IS
THE SAME AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR IS DESTINED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS
AND DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD WITH MANY DELAYS
ANTICIPATED, IF NOT CANCELLATIONS.

800PM UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN DELMARVA
INCLUDING ALL OF DELAWARE. NUMEROUS STATIONS ARE REPORTING
VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN FOG. APPARENTLY MELTING SNOW
EVAPORATED INTO THE LOWER ATMOS TODAY AND THEN SLIGHT COOLING
AROUND SUNDOWN ENABLED THE FOG TO FORM. NOT SURE HOW LONG FOG WILL
LAST BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

SOCIAL MEDIA HAS THE UPDATED WED EVENING BRIEFING PACKAGE AND
REQUEST FOR OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE MONITORING MOSTLY OUR SKYWARN
ACCOUNT AND PHI FB. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ALL YOUR ASSISTANCE
INCLUDING THE ENERGY TO HELP US DURING THE NIGHT. SAFETY FIRST.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES.

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT SUSSEX COUNTY
DELAWARE.

FGEN WHILE DECENT DOES NOT NECESSARILY FAVOR 1/4 TO ONE HALF MI
VSBY IN MDT TO HEAVY SNOW.  WE`VE PUT IT IN THERE, PER WPC QPF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/FOG VARIABLE LIFR IN PATCHY DENSE FOG
THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE COLDER NORTHWEST WIND INCREASES, THE
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR 1-2 HOURS AND THEN IFR
SNOW OCCURS. PLEASE SEE THE 00Z TAFS FOR DETAILS. CONFIDENCE IN
MDT 1/2 MILE SNOW IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER, I AM
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD PLOWING AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS WILL
DEVELOP BY SUNRISE THURSDAY FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTH AND THEN
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING AFTER 12Z. NORTH WIND GUSTS TO
18 KT BY 11Z THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...IFR SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 20S AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 20 KT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PLOWING OPERATIONS AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK,
AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-
     101>106.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
     008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
     012-015.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ015>027.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-
     016>027.
DE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...AMC/DRAG 846P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 846P
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 846P
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 050147
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
847 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
835 PM: EARLY ESTF UPDATED FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ALSO
HAVE UPDATED DELAYED TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW PER REALITY
AND THE HRRR. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASED IN THE 00Z-06Z/5 TIME FRAME
AND ALSO DECREASED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE NEAR PHILADELPHIA IN THE
06Z-12Z/5 TIME FRAME. INCREASED THE SNOWFALL IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME
FRAME TO COMPENSATE AND BALANCE AMOUNTS CLOSE TO OUR 330 PM FCST.
WILL UPDATE THE SNOW MAP AROUND 945 PM PENDING A QUICK CHECK OF
THE NAM. TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED THROUGH 14Z AS WERE DEWPOINTS
AND POPS TOO. REWORKED THE WX GRIDS WITH DELAYED CHANGE TO SNOW
AND ADDED HEAVY SNOW TO THE WORDING FOR THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH
ITS NOT A CLEAR CUT HEAVY. SNOW WATER RATIOS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO 8 TO 1 FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. SO THE BASIC MESSAGE IS
THE SAME AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR IS DESTINED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS
AND DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD WITH MANY DELAYS
ANTICIPATED, IF NOT CANCELLATIONS.

800PM UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN DELMARVA
INCLUDING ALL OF DELAWARE. NUMEROUS STATIONS ARE REPORTING
VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN FOG. APPARENTLY MELTING SNOW
EVAPORATED INTO THE LOWER ATMOS TODAY AND THEN SLIGHT COOLING
AROUND SUNDOWN ENABLED THE FOG TO FORM. NOT SURE HOW LONG FOG WILL
LAST BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

SOCIAL MEDIA HAS THE UPDATED WED EVENING BRIEFING PACKAGE AND
REQUEST FOR OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE MONITORING MOSTLY OUR SKYWARN
ACCOUNT AND PHI FB. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ALL YOUR ASSISTANCE
INCLUDING THE ENERGY TO HELP US DURING THE NIGHT. SAFETY FIRST.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES.

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT SUSSEX COUNTY
DELAWARE.

FGEN WHILE DECENT DOES NOT NECESSARILY FAVOR 1/4 TO ONE HALF MI
VSBY IN MDT TO HEAVY SNOW.  WE`VE PUT IT IN THERE, PER WPC QPF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/FOG VARIABLE LIFR IN PATCHY DENSE FOG
THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE COLDER NORTHWEST WIND INCREASES, THE
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR 1-2 HOURS AND THEN IFR
SNOW OCCURS. PLEASE SEE THE 00Z TAFS FOR DETAILS. CONFIDENCE IN
MDT 1/2 MILE SNOW IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER, I AM
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD PLOWING AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS WILL
DEVELOP BY SUNRISE THURSDAY FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTH AND THEN
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING AFTER 12Z. NORTH WIND GUSTS TO
18 KT BY 11Z THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...IFR SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 20S AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 20 KT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PLOWING OPERATIONS AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK,
AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-
     101>106.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
     008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
     012-015.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ015>027.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-
     016>027.
DE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...AMC/DRAG 846P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 846P
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 846P
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 050147
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
847 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A COLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF HIGH
PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
835 PM: EARLY ESTF UPDATED FOR THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AND ALSO
HAVE UPDATED DELAYED TIMING OF RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW PER REALITY
AND THE HRRR. SNOW AMOUNTS DECREASED IN THE 00Z-06Z/5 TIME FRAME
AND ALSO DECREASED ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE NEAR PHILADELPHIA IN THE
06Z-12Z/5 TIME FRAME. INCREASED THE SNOWFALL IN THE 12Z-18Z TIME
FRAME TO COMPENSATE AND BALANCE AMOUNTS CLOSE TO OUR 330 PM FCST.
WILL UPDATE THE SNOW MAP AROUND 945 PM PENDING A QUICK CHECK OF
THE NAM. TEMPERATURES WERE INCREASED THROUGH 14Z AS WERE DEWPOINTS
AND POPS TOO. REWORKED THE WX GRIDS WITH DELAYED CHANGE TO SNOW
AND ADDED HEAVY SNOW TO THE WORDING FOR THURSDAY MORNING THOUGH
ITS NOT A CLEAR CUT HEAVY. SNOW WATER RATIOS WILL PROBABLY BE
CLOSER TO 8 TO 1 FOR THE FIRST FEW HOURS. SO THE BASIC MESSAGE IS
THE SAME AND THE MORNING RUSH HOUR IS DESTINED TO BECOME HAZARDOUS
AND DIFFICULT, ESPECIALLY PHILADELPHIA NORTHWARD WITH MANY DELAYS
ANTICIPATED, IF NOT CANCELLATIONS.

800PM UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN DELMARVA
INCLUDING ALL OF DELAWARE. NUMEROUS STATIONS ARE REPORTING
VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN FOG. APPARENTLY MELTING SNOW
EVAPORATED INTO THE LOWER ATMOS TODAY AND THEN SLIGHT COOLING
AROUND SUNDOWN ENABLED THE FOG TO FORM. NOT SURE HOW LONG FOG WILL
LAST BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

SOCIAL MEDIA HAS THE UPDATED WED EVENING BRIEFING PACKAGE AND
REQUEST FOR OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE MONITORING MOSTLY OUR SKYWARN
ACCOUNT AND PHI FB. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ALL YOUR ASSISTANCE
INCLUDING THE ENERGY TO HELP US DURING THE NIGHT. SAFETY FIRST.



&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES.

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL DEVELOP OVER MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON EXCEPT SUSSEX COUNTY
DELAWARE.

FGEN WHILE DECENT DOES NOT NECESSARILY FAVOR 1/4 TO ONE HALF MI
VSBY IN MDT TO HEAVY SNOW.  WE`VE PUT IT IN THERE, PER WPC QPF.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/FOG VARIABLE LIFR IN PATCHY DENSE FOG
THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE COLDER NORTHWEST WIND INCREASES, THE
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR 1-2 HOURS AND THEN IFR
SNOW OCCURS. PLEASE SEE THE 00Z TAFS FOR DETAILS. CONFIDENCE IN
MDT 1/2 MILE SNOW IS BELOW AVERAGE FOR THURSDAY. HOWEVER, I AM
CONFIDENT THAT WIDESPREAD PLOWING AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS WILL
DEVELOP BY SUNRISE THURSDAY FROM PHILADELPHIA NORTH AND THEN
SPREAD SOUTHWARD DURING THE MORNING AFTER 12Z. NORTH WIND GUSTS TO
18 KT BY 11Z THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...IFR SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO
THE 20S AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 20 KT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PLOWING OPERATIONS AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK,
AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-
     101>106.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
     008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
     012-015.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ015>027.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-
     016>027.
DE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...AMC/DRAG 846P
SHORT TERM...DRAG 846P
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES 846P
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 050121
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
821 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
800PM UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN DELMARVA
INCLUDING ALL OF DELAWARE. NUMEROUS STATIONS ARE REPORTING
VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN FOG. APPARENTLY MELTING SNOW
EVAPORATED INTO THE LOWER ATMOS TODAY AND THEN SLIGHT COOLING
AROUND SUNDOWN ENABLED THE FOG TO FORM. NOT SURE HOW LONG FOG WILL
LAST BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

SOCIAL MEDIA HAS THE UPDATED WED EVENING BRIEFING PACKAGE AND
REQUEST FOR OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE MONITORING MOSTLY OUR SKYWARN
ACCOUNT AND PHI FB. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ALL YOUR ASSISTANCE
INCLUDING THE ENERGY TO HELP US DURING THE NIGHT. SAFETY FIRST.

545PM ESTF UPDATE: ADDED PATCHY FOG MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
IN LIGHT WIND FRONTAL ZONE. HAVE DELAYED THE CHANGE TO SNOW AND
SLEET IN NE PA AND NW NJ BY 2 HOURS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THIS FCST WILL POST BEFORE 730 PM.

OTHERWISE TRENDS VIA 18Z AND 20Z HRRR SHOW A CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SUCH THAT PHL SHOULD BE SEEING SNOW ACCUM AROUND
08Z WITH 2-3 INCHES NEAR AND N OF I-80 BY 09Z.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
AS IT DOES SO, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. EXACTLY WHAT KIND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE IN THE REGION AND WHAT TIME THE FRONT FINALLY
COMES THROUGH. FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY IN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ, IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY FAST AND CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ, AND FAR NORTHERN DELMARVA, A WARM NOSE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE LOW
LEVELS, MAKING A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. SOUTHERN DELMARVA
SHOULD STAY MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE - WHICH IS DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION. THIS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR FOR TEMPERATURES
MOST OF THE DAY.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH, HOWEVER THIS WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER, WHICH AS MENTIONED BEFORE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES.

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/FOG VARIABLE LIFR IN PATCHY DENSE FOG
THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE COLDER NORTHWEST WIND INCREASES, THE
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR 1-2 HOURS AND THEN IFR
SNOW OCCURS. PLEASE SEE THE 00Z TAFS FOR DETAILS. MY CONFIDENCE IN
MDT 1/2 MI SNOW IS BELOW AVERAGE. HOWEVER, I AM CONFIDENT THAT
WIDESPREAD PLOWING AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. NORTH WIND GUSTS TO 18 KT BY 11Z THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...IFR SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 20S AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 20 KT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PLOWING OPERATIONS AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK,
AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-
     101>106.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
     008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
     012-015.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ015>027.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-
     016>027.
DE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...AMC/DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 050121
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
821 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
800PM UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN DELMARVA
INCLUDING ALL OF DELAWARE. NUMEROUS STATIONS ARE REPORTING
VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN FOG. APPARENTLY MELTING SNOW
EVAPORATED INTO THE LOWER ATMOS TODAY AND THEN SLIGHT COOLING
AROUND SUNDOWN ENABLED THE FOG TO FORM. NOT SURE HOW LONG FOG WILL
LAST BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

SOCIAL MEDIA HAS THE UPDATED WED EVENING BRIEFING PACKAGE AND
REQUEST FOR OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE MONITORING MOSTLY OUR SKYWARN
ACCOUNT AND PHI FB. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ALL YOUR ASSISTANCE
INCLUDING THE ENERGY TO HELP US DURING THE NIGHT. SAFETY FIRST.

545PM ESTF UPDATE: ADDED PATCHY FOG MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
IN LIGHT WIND FRONTAL ZONE. HAVE DELAYED THE CHANGE TO SNOW AND
SLEET IN NE PA AND NW NJ BY 2 HOURS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THIS FCST WILL POST BEFORE 730 PM.

OTHERWISE TRENDS VIA 18Z AND 20Z HRRR SHOW A CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SUCH THAT PHL SHOULD BE SEEING SNOW ACCUM AROUND
08Z WITH 2-3 INCHES NEAR AND N OF I-80 BY 09Z.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
AS IT DOES SO, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. EXACTLY WHAT KIND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE IN THE REGION AND WHAT TIME THE FRONT FINALLY
COMES THROUGH. FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY IN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ, IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY FAST AND CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ, AND FAR NORTHERN DELMARVA, A WARM NOSE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE LOW
LEVELS, MAKING A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. SOUTHERN DELMARVA
SHOULD STAY MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE - WHICH IS DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION. THIS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR FOR TEMPERATURES
MOST OF THE DAY.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH, HOWEVER THIS WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER, WHICH AS MENTIONED BEFORE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES.

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/FOG VARIABLE LIFR IN PATCHY DENSE FOG
THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE COLDER NORTHWEST WIND INCREASES, THE
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR 1-2 HOURS AND THEN IFR
SNOW OCCURS. PLEASE SEE THE 00Z TAFS FOR DETAILS. MY CONFIDENCE IN
MDT 1/2 MI SNOW IS BELOW AVERAGE. HOWEVER, I AM CONFIDENT THAT
WIDESPREAD PLOWING AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. NORTH WIND GUSTS TO 18 KT BY 11Z THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...IFR SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 20S AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 20 KT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PLOWING OPERATIONS AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK,
AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-
     101>106.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
     008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
     012-015.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ015>027.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-
     016>027.
DE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...AMC/DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 050121
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
821 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
800PM UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN DELMARVA
INCLUDING ALL OF DELAWARE. NUMEROUS STATIONS ARE REPORTING
VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN FOG. APPARENTLY MELTING SNOW
EVAPORATED INTO THE LOWER ATMOS TODAY AND THEN SLIGHT COOLING
AROUND SUNDOWN ENABLED THE FOG TO FORM. NOT SURE HOW LONG FOG WILL
LAST BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

SOCIAL MEDIA HAS THE UPDATED WED EVENING BRIEFING PACKAGE AND
REQUEST FOR OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE MONITORING MOSTLY OUR SKYWARN
ACCOUNT AND PHI FB. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ALL YOUR ASSISTANCE
INCLUDING THE ENERGY TO HELP US DURING THE NIGHT. SAFETY FIRST.

545PM ESTF UPDATE: ADDED PATCHY FOG MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
IN LIGHT WIND FRONTAL ZONE. HAVE DELAYED THE CHANGE TO SNOW AND
SLEET IN NE PA AND NW NJ BY 2 HOURS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THIS FCST WILL POST BEFORE 730 PM.

OTHERWISE TRENDS VIA 18Z AND 20Z HRRR SHOW A CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SUCH THAT PHL SHOULD BE SEEING SNOW ACCUM AROUND
08Z WITH 2-3 INCHES NEAR AND N OF I-80 BY 09Z.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
AS IT DOES SO, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. EXACTLY WHAT KIND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE IN THE REGION AND WHAT TIME THE FRONT FINALLY
COMES THROUGH. FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY IN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ, IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY FAST AND CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ, AND FAR NORTHERN DELMARVA, A WARM NOSE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE LOW
LEVELS, MAKING A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. SOUTHERN DELMARVA
SHOULD STAY MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE - WHICH IS DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION. THIS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR FOR TEMPERATURES
MOST OF THE DAY.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH, HOWEVER THIS WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER, WHICH AS MENTIONED BEFORE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES.

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/FOG VARIABLE LIFR IN PATCHY DENSE FOG
THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE COLDER NORTHWEST WIND INCREASES, THE
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR 1-2 HOURS AND THEN IFR
SNOW OCCURS. PLEASE SEE THE 00Z TAFS FOR DETAILS. MY CONFIDENCE IN
MDT 1/2 MI SNOW IS BELOW AVERAGE. HOWEVER, I AM CONFIDENT THAT
WIDESPREAD PLOWING AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. NORTH WIND GUSTS TO 18 KT BY 11Z THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...IFR SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 20S AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 20 KT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PLOWING OPERATIONS AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK,
AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-
     101>106.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
     008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
     012-015.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ015>027.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-
     016>027.
DE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...AMC/DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 050121
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
821 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
800PM UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN DELMARVA
INCLUDING ALL OF DELAWARE. NUMEROUS STATIONS ARE REPORTING
VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN FOG. APPARENTLY MELTING SNOW
EVAPORATED INTO THE LOWER ATMOS TODAY AND THEN SLIGHT COOLING
AROUND SUNDOWN ENABLED THE FOG TO FORM. NOT SURE HOW LONG FOG WILL
LAST BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

SOCIAL MEDIA HAS THE UPDATED WED EVENING BRIEFING PACKAGE AND
REQUEST FOR OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE MONITORING MOSTLY OUR SKYWARN
ACCOUNT AND PHI FB. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ALL YOUR ASSISTANCE
INCLUDING THE ENERGY TO HELP US DURING THE NIGHT. SAFETY FIRST.

545PM ESTF UPDATE: ADDED PATCHY FOG MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
IN LIGHT WIND FRONTAL ZONE. HAVE DELAYED THE CHANGE TO SNOW AND
SLEET IN NE PA AND NW NJ BY 2 HOURS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THIS FCST WILL POST BEFORE 730 PM.

OTHERWISE TRENDS VIA 18Z AND 20Z HRRR SHOW A CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SUCH THAT PHL SHOULD BE SEEING SNOW ACCUM AROUND
08Z WITH 2-3 INCHES NEAR AND N OF I-80 BY 09Z.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
AS IT DOES SO, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. EXACTLY WHAT KIND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE IN THE REGION AND WHAT TIME THE FRONT FINALLY
COMES THROUGH. FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY IN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ, IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY FAST AND CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ, AND FAR NORTHERN DELMARVA, A WARM NOSE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE LOW
LEVELS, MAKING A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. SOUTHERN DELMARVA
SHOULD STAY MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE - WHICH IS DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION. THIS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR FOR TEMPERATURES
MOST OF THE DAY.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH, HOWEVER THIS WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER, WHICH AS MENTIONED BEFORE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES.

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/FOG VARIABLE LIFR IN PATCHY DENSE FOG
THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE COLDER NORTHWEST WIND INCREASES, THE
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR 1-2 HOURS AND THEN IFR
SNOW OCCURS. PLEASE SEE THE 00Z TAFS FOR DETAILS. MY CONFIDENCE IN
MDT 1/2 MI SNOW IS BELOW AVERAGE. HOWEVER, I AM CONFIDENT THAT
WIDESPREAD PLOWING AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. NORTH WIND GUSTS TO 18 KT BY 11Z THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...IFR SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 20S AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 20 KT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PLOWING OPERATIONS AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK,
AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-
     101>106.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
     008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
     012-015.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ015>027.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-
     016>027.
DE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...AMC/DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 050121
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
821 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
800PM UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN DELMARVA
INCLUDING ALL OF DELAWARE. NUMEROUS STATIONS ARE REPORTING
VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN FOG. APPARENTLY MELTING SNOW
EVAPORATED INTO THE LOWER ATMOS TODAY AND THEN SLIGHT COOLING
AROUND SUNDOWN ENABLED THE FOG TO FORM. NOT SURE HOW LONG FOG WILL
LAST BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

SOCIAL MEDIA HAS THE UPDATED WED EVENING BRIEFING PACKAGE AND
REQUEST FOR OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE MONITORING MOSTLY OUR SKYWARN
ACCOUNT AND PHI FB. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ALL YOUR ASSISTANCE
INCLUDING THE ENERGY TO HELP US DURING THE NIGHT. SAFETY FIRST.

545PM ESTF UPDATE: ADDED PATCHY FOG MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
IN LIGHT WIND FRONTAL ZONE. HAVE DELAYED THE CHANGE TO SNOW AND
SLEET IN NE PA AND NW NJ BY 2 HOURS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THIS FCST WILL POST BEFORE 730 PM.

OTHERWISE TRENDS VIA 18Z AND 20Z HRRR SHOW A CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SUCH THAT PHL SHOULD BE SEEING SNOW ACCUM AROUND
08Z WITH 2-3 INCHES NEAR AND N OF I-80 BY 09Z.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
AS IT DOES SO, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. EXACTLY WHAT KIND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE IN THE REGION AND WHAT TIME THE FRONT FINALLY
COMES THROUGH. FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY IN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ, IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY FAST AND CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ, AND FAR NORTHERN DELMARVA, A WARM NOSE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE LOW
LEVELS, MAKING A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. SOUTHERN DELMARVA
SHOULD STAY MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE - WHICH IS DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION. THIS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR FOR TEMPERATURES
MOST OF THE DAY.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH, HOWEVER THIS WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER, WHICH AS MENTIONED BEFORE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES.

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/FOG VARIABLE LIFR IN PATCHY DENSE FOG
THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE COLDER NORTHWEST WIND INCREASES, THE
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR 1-2 HOURS AND THEN IFR
SNOW OCCURS. PLEASE SEE THE 00Z TAFS FOR DETAILS. MY CONFIDENCE IN
MDT 1/2 MI SNOW IS BELOW AVERAGE. HOWEVER, I AM CONFIDENT THAT
WIDESPREAD PLOWING AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. NORTH WIND GUSTS TO 18 KT BY 11Z THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...IFR SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 20S AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 20 KT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PLOWING OPERATIONS AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK,
AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-
     101>106.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
     008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
     012-015.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ015>027.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-
     016>027.
DE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...AMC/DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 050121
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
821 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
800PM UPDATE...A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY...PARTS OF SOUTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN DELMARVA
INCLUDING ALL OF DELAWARE. NUMEROUS STATIONS ARE REPORTING
VISIBILITY OF 1/4 MILE OR LESS IN FOG. APPARENTLY MELTING SNOW
EVAPORATED INTO THE LOWER ATMOS TODAY AND THEN SLIGHT COOLING
AROUND SUNDOWN ENABLED THE FOG TO FORM. NOT SURE HOW LONG FOG WILL
LAST BUT IT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE WHEN HEAVIER PRECIP ARRIVES
LATER THIS EVENING. CURRENT ADVISORY RUNS UNTIL MIDNIGHT.

SOCIAL MEDIA HAS THE UPDATED WED EVENING BRIEFING PACKAGE AND
REQUEST FOR OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE MONITORING MOSTLY OUR SKYWARN
ACCOUNT AND PHI FB. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ALL YOUR ASSISTANCE
INCLUDING THE ENERGY TO HELP US DURING THE NIGHT. SAFETY FIRST.

545PM ESTF UPDATE: ADDED PATCHY FOG MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
IN LIGHT WIND FRONTAL ZONE. HAVE DELAYED THE CHANGE TO SNOW AND
SLEET IN NE PA AND NW NJ BY 2 HOURS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THIS FCST WILL POST BEFORE 730 PM.

OTHERWISE TRENDS VIA 18Z AND 20Z HRRR SHOW A CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SUCH THAT PHL SHOULD BE SEEING SNOW ACCUM AROUND
08Z WITH 2-3 INCHES NEAR AND N OF I-80 BY 09Z.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
AS IT DOES SO, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. EXACTLY WHAT KIND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE IN THE REGION AND WHAT TIME THE FRONT FINALLY
COMES THROUGH. FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY IN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ, IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY FAST AND CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ, AND FAR NORTHERN DELMARVA, A WARM NOSE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE LOW
LEVELS, MAKING A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. SOUTHERN DELMARVA
SHOULD STAY MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE - WHICH IS DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION. THIS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR FOR TEMPERATURES
MOST OF THE DAY.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH, HOWEVER THIS WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER, WHICH AS MENTIONED BEFORE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES.

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/FOG VARIABLE LIFR IN PATCHY DENSE FOG
THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE COLDER NORTHWEST WIND INCREASES, THE
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR 1-2 HOURS AND THEN IFR
SNOW OCCURS. PLEASE SEE THE 00Z TAFS FOR DETAILS. MY CONFIDENCE IN
MDT 1/2 MI SNOW IS BELOW AVERAGE. HOWEVER, I AM CONFIDENT THAT
WIDESPREAD PLOWING AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. NORTH WIND GUSTS TO 18 KT BY 11Z THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...IFR SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 20S AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 20 KT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PLOWING OPERATIONS AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK,
AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-
     101>106.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR PAZ070-071-
     101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
     008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
     012-015.
     DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR NJZ015>027.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-
     016>027.
DE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR DEZ001>004.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-
     015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...AMC/DRAG/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 042304
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
604 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SOCIAL MEDIA HAS THE UPDATED WED EVENING BRIEFING PACKAGE AND
REQUEST FOR OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE MONITORING MOSTLY OUR SKYWARN
ACCOUNT AND PHI FB. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ALL YOUR ASSISTANCE
INCLUDING THE ENERGY TO HELP US DURING THE NIGHT. SAFETY FIRST.

545PM ESTF UPDATE: ADDED PATCHY FOG MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
IN LIGHT WIND FRONTAL ZONE. HAVE DELAYED THE CHANGE TO SNOW AND
SLEET IN NE PA AND NW NJ BY 2 HOURS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THIS FCST WILL POST BEFORE 730 PM.

OTHERWISE TRENDS VIA 18Z AND 20Z HRRR SHOW A CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SUCH THAT PHL SHOULD BE SEEING SNOW ACCUM AROUND
08Z WITH 2-3 INCHES NEAR AND N OF I-80 BY 09Z.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
AS IT DOES SO, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. EXACTLY WHAT KIND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE IN THE REGION AND WHAT TIME THE FRONT FINALLY
COMES THROUGH. FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY IN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ, IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY FAST AND CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ, AND FAR NORTHERN DELMARVA, A WARM NOSE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE LOW
LEVELS, MAKING A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. SOUTHERN DELMARVA
SHOULD STAY MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE - WHICH IS DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION. THIS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR FOR TEMPERATURES
MOST OF THE DAY.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH, HOWEVER THIS WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER, WHICH AS MENTIONED BEFORE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES.

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/FOG VARIABLE LIFR IN PATCHY DENSE FOG
THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE COLDER NORTHWEST WIND INCREASES, THE
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR 1-2 HOURS AND THEN IFR
SNOW OCCURS. PLEASE SEE THE 00Z TAFS FOR DETAILS. MY CONFIDENCE IN
MDT 1/2 MI SNOW IS BELOW AVERAGE. HOWEVER, I AM CONFIDENT THAT
WIDESPREAD PLOWING AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. NORTH WIND GUSTS TO 18 KT BY 11Z THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...IFR SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 20S AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 20 KT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PLOWING OPERATIONS AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK,
AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-
     101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
     008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
     012-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 603
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 603
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 603
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 603
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 042304
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
604 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SOCIAL MEDIA HAS THE UPDATED WED EVENING BRIEFING PACKAGE AND
REQUEST FOR OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE MONITORING MOSTLY OUR SKYWARN
ACCOUNT AND PHI FB. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ALL YOUR ASSISTANCE
INCLUDING THE ENERGY TO HELP US DURING THE NIGHT. SAFETY FIRST.

545PM ESTF UPDATE: ADDED PATCHY FOG MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
IN LIGHT WIND FRONTAL ZONE. HAVE DELAYED THE CHANGE TO SNOW AND
SLEET IN NE PA AND NW NJ BY 2 HOURS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THIS FCST WILL POST BEFORE 730 PM.

OTHERWISE TRENDS VIA 18Z AND 20Z HRRR SHOW A CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SUCH THAT PHL SHOULD BE SEEING SNOW ACCUM AROUND
08Z WITH 2-3 INCHES NEAR AND N OF I-80 BY 09Z.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
AS IT DOES SO, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. EXACTLY WHAT KIND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE IN THE REGION AND WHAT TIME THE FRONT FINALLY
COMES THROUGH. FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY IN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ, IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY FAST AND CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ, AND FAR NORTHERN DELMARVA, A WARM NOSE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE LOW
LEVELS, MAKING A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. SOUTHERN DELMARVA
SHOULD STAY MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE - WHICH IS DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION. THIS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR FOR TEMPERATURES
MOST OF THE DAY.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH, HOWEVER THIS WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER, WHICH AS MENTIONED BEFORE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES.

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/FOG VARIABLE LIFR IN PATCHY DENSE FOG
THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE COLDER NORTHWEST WIND INCREASES, THE
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR 1-2 HOURS AND THEN IFR
SNOW OCCURS. PLEASE SEE THE 00Z TAFS FOR DETAILS. MY CONFIDENCE IN
MDT 1/2 MI SNOW IS BELOW AVERAGE. HOWEVER, I AM CONFIDENT THAT
WIDESPREAD PLOWING AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. NORTH WIND GUSTS TO 18 KT BY 11Z THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...IFR SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 20S AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 20 KT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PLOWING OPERATIONS AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK,
AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-
     101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
     008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
     012-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 603
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 603
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 603
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 603
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 042304
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
604 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SOCIAL MEDIA HAS THE UPDATED WED EVENING BRIEFING PACKAGE AND
REQUEST FOR OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE MONITORING MOSTLY OUR SKYWARN
ACCOUNT AND PHI FB. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ALL YOUR ASSISTANCE
INCLUDING THE ENERGY TO HELP US DURING THE NIGHT. SAFETY FIRST.

545PM ESTF UPDATE: ADDED PATCHY FOG MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
IN LIGHT WIND FRONTAL ZONE. HAVE DELAYED THE CHANGE TO SNOW AND
SLEET IN NE PA AND NW NJ BY 2 HOURS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THIS FCST WILL POST BEFORE 730 PM.

OTHERWISE TRENDS VIA 18Z AND 20Z HRRR SHOW A CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SUCH THAT PHL SHOULD BE SEEING SNOW ACCUM AROUND
08Z WITH 2-3 INCHES NEAR AND N OF I-80 BY 09Z.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
AS IT DOES SO, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. EXACTLY WHAT KIND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE IN THE REGION AND WHAT TIME THE FRONT FINALLY
COMES THROUGH. FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY IN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ, IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY FAST AND CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ, AND FAR NORTHERN DELMARVA, A WARM NOSE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE LOW
LEVELS, MAKING A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. SOUTHERN DELMARVA
SHOULD STAY MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE - WHICH IS DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION. THIS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR FOR TEMPERATURES
MOST OF THE DAY.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH, HOWEVER THIS WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER, WHICH AS MENTIONED BEFORE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES.

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/FOG VARIABLE LIFR IN PATCHY DENSE FOG
THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE COLDER NORTHWEST WIND INCREASES, THE
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR 1-2 HOURS AND THEN IFR
SNOW OCCURS. PLEASE SEE THE 00Z TAFS FOR DETAILS. MY CONFIDENCE IN
MDT 1/2 MI SNOW IS BELOW AVERAGE. HOWEVER, I AM CONFIDENT THAT
WIDESPREAD PLOWING AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. NORTH WIND GUSTS TO 18 KT BY 11Z THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...IFR SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 20S AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 20 KT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PLOWING OPERATIONS AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK,
AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-
     101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
     008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
     012-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 603
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 603
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 603
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 603
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 042304
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
604 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SOCIAL MEDIA HAS THE UPDATED WED EVENING BRIEFING PACKAGE AND
REQUEST FOR OBSERVATIONS. WE WILL BE MONITORING MOSTLY OUR SKYWARN
ACCOUNT AND PHI FB. THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR ALL YOUR ASSISTANCE
INCLUDING THE ENERGY TO HELP US DURING THE NIGHT. SAFETY FIRST.

545PM ESTF UPDATE: ADDED PATCHY FOG MUCH OF THE AREA THIS EVENING
IN LIGHT WIND FRONTAL ZONE. HAVE DELAYED THE CHANGE TO SNOW AND
SLEET IN NE PA AND NW NJ BY 2 HOURS. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
TO THIS FCST WILL POST BEFORE 730 PM.

OTHERWISE TRENDS VIA 18Z AND 20Z HRRR SHOW A CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SUCH THAT PHL SHOULD BE SEEING SNOW ACCUM AROUND
08Z WITH 2-3 INCHES NEAR AND N OF I-80 BY 09Z.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
AS IT DOES SO, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. EXACTLY WHAT KIND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE IN THE REGION AND WHAT TIME THE FRONT FINALLY
COMES THROUGH. FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY IN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ, IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY FAST AND CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ, AND FAR NORTHERN DELMARVA, A WARM NOSE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE LOW
LEVELS, MAKING A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. SOUTHERN DELMARVA
SHOULD STAY MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE - WHICH IS DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION. THIS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR FOR TEMPERATURES
MOST OF THE DAY.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH, HOWEVER THIS WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER, WHICH AS MENTIONED BEFORE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR CLIMATE SITES.

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...MVFR CONDS IN RAIN/FOG VARIABLE LIFR IN PATCHY DENSE FOG
THIS EVENING. THEN AS THE COLDER NORTHWEST WIND INCREASES, THE
CHANGE FROM RAIN TO SLEET/FREEZING RAIN FOR 1-2 HOURS AND THEN IFR
SNOW OCCURS. PLEASE SEE THE 00Z TAFS FOR DETAILS. MY CONFIDENCE IN
MDT 1/2 MI SNOW IS BELOW AVERAGE. HOWEVER, I AM CONFIDENT THAT
WIDESPREAD PLOWING AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS WILL DEVELOP BY SUNRISE
THURSDAY. NORTH WIND GUSTS TO 18 KT BY 11Z THURSDAY.

THURSDAY...IFR SNOW IN THE MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING
INTO THE 20S AT ALL TAF SITES BY 15Z. NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 20 KT.
CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE TO VFR FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. PLOWING OPERATIONS AND EXTENSIVE DELAYS ARE ANTICIPATED
WITH WIDESPREAD EVENT TOTALS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT POSSIBLE.
THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20KT ARE POSSIBLE,
BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK,
AND THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER MODIFIED ARCTIC
AIRMASS SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING,
WE HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-
     101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
     008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
     012-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 603
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 603
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 603
MARINE...DRAG/GAINES/JOHNSON 603
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 042141
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
441 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TRENDS VIA 18Z AND 20Z HRRR SHOW A HURRY UP CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SUCH THAT PHL SHOULD BE SEEING SNOW ACCUM AROUND
08Z WITH 2-3 INCHES NEAR AND N OF I80 BY 09Z.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
AS IT DOES SO, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. EXACTLY WHAT KIND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE IN THE REGION AND WHAT TIME THE FRONT FINALLY
COMES THROUGH. FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY IN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ, IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY FAST AND CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ, AND FAR NORTHERN DELMARVA, A WARM NOSE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE LOW
LEVELS, MAKING A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. SOUTHERN DELMARVA
SHOULD STAY MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE - WHICH IS DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION. THIS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR FOR TEMPERATURES
MOST OF THE DAY.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH, HOWEVER THIS WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER, WHICH AS MENTIONED BEFORE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR.

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 00Z. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE VARIABLE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING,
THEN LOWER TO STEADY IFR AS PRECIPITATION CHANGES FROM RAIN TO A
WINTRY MIX TO EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW. EXACTLY WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL START FROM KABE AND KRDG AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE TAF SITES, EXPECT A 1 TO 2 HOUR
WINDOW FOR A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW, BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL
SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE, AGAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
WAVES ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE
5 FT. AFTER MIDNIGHT, WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS ABOVE 25 KT
POSSIBLE. THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES THROUGH
TOMORROW EVENING ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS. ON THE BAY, A FEW GUSTS
NEAR 20KT ARE POSSIBLE, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW
SCA CRITERIA.

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK, AND
THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING, WE
HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-
     101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
     008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
     012-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...GAINES/DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 042138
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
438 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TRENDS VIA 18Z AND 20Z HRRR SHOW A HURRY UP CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SUCH THAT PHL SHOULD BE SEEING SNOW ACCUM AROUND
08Z WITH 2-3 INCHES NEAR AND N OF I80 BY 09Z.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
AS IT DOES SO, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. EXACTLY WHAT KIND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE IN THE REGION AND WHAT TIME THE FRONT FINALLY
COMES THROUGH. FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY IN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ, IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY FAST AND CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ, AND FAR NORTHERN DELMARVA, A WARM NOSE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE LOW
LEVELS, MAKING A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. SOUTHERN DELMARVA
SHOULD STAY MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE - WHICH IS DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION. THIS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR FOR TEMPERATURES
MOST OF THE DAY.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH, HOWEVER THIS WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER, WHICH AS MENTIONED BEFORE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR.

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 00Z. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE VARIABLE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING,
THEN LOWER TO STEADY IFR AS PRECIPITATION CHANGES FROM RAIN TO A
WINTRY MIX TO EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW. EXACTLY WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL START FROM KABE AND KRDG AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE TAF SITES, EXPECT A 1 TO 2 HOUR
WINDOW FOR A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW, BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL
SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE, AGAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS SECTION UPDATES BY 5P.

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK, AND
THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING, WE
HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-
     101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
     008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
     012-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/DRAG 438
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE... 438




000
FXUS61 KPHI 042138
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
438 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TRENDS VIA 18Z AND 20Z HRRR SHOW A HURRY UP CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SUCH THAT PHL SHOULD BE SEEING SNOW ACCUM AROUND
08Z WITH 2-3 INCHES NEAR AND N OF I80 BY 09Z.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
AS IT DOES SO, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. EXACTLY WHAT KIND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE IN THE REGION AND WHAT TIME THE FRONT FINALLY
COMES THROUGH. FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY IN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ, IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY FAST AND CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ, AND FAR NORTHERN DELMARVA, A WARM NOSE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE LOW
LEVELS, MAKING A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. SOUTHERN DELMARVA
SHOULD STAY MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE - WHICH IS DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION. THIS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR FOR TEMPERATURES
MOST OF THE DAY.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH, HOWEVER THIS WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER, WHICH AS MENTIONED BEFORE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR.

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 00Z. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE VARIABLE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING,
THEN LOWER TO STEADY IFR AS PRECIPITATION CHANGES FROM RAIN TO A
WINTRY MIX TO EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW. EXACTLY WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL START FROM KABE AND KRDG AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE TAF SITES, EXPECT A 1 TO 2 HOUR
WINDOW FOR A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW, BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL
SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE, AGAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS SECTION UPDATES BY 5P.

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK, AND
THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING, WE
HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-
     101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
     008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
     012-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/DRAG 438
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE... 438



000
FXUS61 KPHI 042138
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
438 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TRENDS VIA 18Z AND 20Z HRRR SHOW A HURRY UP CHANGE TO SNOW FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH SUCH THAT PHL SHOULD BE SEEING SNOW ACCUM AROUND
08Z WITH 2-3 INCHES NEAR AND N OF I80 BY 09Z.

COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS EVENING.
AS IT DOES SO, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN TO
WINTRY PRECIPITATION. EXACTLY WHAT KIND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE IN THE REGION AND WHAT TIME THE FRONT FINALLY
COMES THROUGH. FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY IN PA AND
NORTHWEST NJ, IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY FAST AND CLEAN TRANSITION
FROM RAIN TO SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR,
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN NJ, AND FAR NORTHERN DELMARVA, A WARM NOSE IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE LOW
LEVELS, MAKING A BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW
POSSIBLE BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. SOUTHERN DELMARVA
SHOULD STAY MOSTLY RAIN THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL JUST
BEFORE SUNRISE - WHICH IS DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM
SECTION. THIS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND
THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN POOR FOR TEMPERATURES
MOST OF THE DAY.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH, HOWEVER THIS WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER, WHICH AS MENTIONED BEFORE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
RECORD DAILY SNOWFALLS POSSIBLE AT KILG AND KACY. PLS SEE CLIMATE
SECTION FOR DETAILS ON THE BIG FOUR.

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON
THE OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS
AND NW NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY
MID DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF ALTERNATING
COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS AHEAD OF THESE
FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS,
FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 00Z. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE VARIABLE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING,
THEN LOWER TO STEADY IFR AS PRECIPITATION CHANGES FROM RAIN TO A
WINTRY MIX TO EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW. EXACTLY WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL START FROM KABE AND KRDG AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE TAF SITES, EXPECT A 1 TO 2 HOUR
WINDOW FOR A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW, BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL
SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE, AGAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...
THIS SECTION UPDATES BY 5P.

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK, AND
THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING, WE
HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.

RECORD DAILY SNOWFALL FOR THURSDAY MARCH 5

KACY 0.3 - 1960
KILG 3.7 - 1981
KABE 7.0 - 1917
KPHL 8.8 - 1981


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-
     061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-
     101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-
     008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-
     012-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/DRAG 438
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES/O`HARA
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...
CLIMATE... 438



000
FXUS61 KPHI 042043
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING. AS IT DOES SO, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN
TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION. EXACTLY WHAT KIND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE IN THE REGION AND WHAT TIME THE FRONT FINALLY
COMES THROUGH. FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY IN PA AND NORTHWEST
NJ, IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY FAST AND CLEAN TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR, CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NJ, AND FAR NORTHERN DELMARVA, A WARM NOSE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE LOW LEVELS, MAKING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. SOUTHERN DELMARVA SHOULD STAY MOSTLY RAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE - WHICH IS
DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION. THIS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN POOR FOR TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE DAY.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH, HOWEVER THIS WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER, WHICH AS MENTIONED BEFORE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS AND NW
NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY MID
DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF
ALTERNATING COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS
AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD
OF THESE FRONTS, FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 00Z. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE VARIABLE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING,
THEN LOWER TO STEADY IFR AS PRECIPITATION CHANGES FROM RAIN TO A
WINTRY MIX TO EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW. EXACTLY WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL START FROM KABE AND KRDG AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE TAF SITES, EXPECT A 1 TO 2 HOUR
WINDOW FOR A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW, BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL
SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE, AGAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK, AND
THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.


&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING, WE
HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-012-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...GAINES



000
FXUS61 KPHI 042043
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING. AS IT DOES SO, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN
TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION. EXACTLY WHAT KIND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE IN THE REGION AND WHAT TIME THE FRONT FINALLY
COMES THROUGH. FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY IN PA AND NORTHWEST
NJ, IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY FAST AND CLEAN TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR, CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NJ, AND FAR NORTHERN DELMARVA, A WARM NOSE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE LOW LEVELS, MAKING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. SOUTHERN DELMARVA SHOULD STAY MOSTLY RAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE - WHICH IS
DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION. THIS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN POOR FOR TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE DAY.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH, HOWEVER THIS WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER, WHICH AS MENTIONED BEFORE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS AND NW
NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY MID
DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF
ALTERNATING COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS
AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD
OF THESE FRONTS, FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 00Z. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE VARIABLE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING,
THEN LOWER TO STEADY IFR AS PRECIPITATION CHANGES FROM RAIN TO A
WINTRY MIX TO EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW. EXACTLY WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL START FROM KABE AND KRDG AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE TAF SITES, EXPECT A 1 TO 2 HOUR
WINDOW FOR A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW, BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL
SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE, AGAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK, AND
THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.


&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING, WE
HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-012-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...GAINES




000
FXUS61 KPHI 042043
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING. AS IT DOES SO, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN
TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION. EXACTLY WHAT KIND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE IN THE REGION AND WHAT TIME THE FRONT FINALLY
COMES THROUGH. FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY IN PA AND NORTHWEST
NJ, IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY FAST AND CLEAN TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR, CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NJ, AND FAR NORTHERN DELMARVA, A WARM NOSE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE LOW LEVELS, MAKING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. SOUTHERN DELMARVA SHOULD STAY MOSTLY RAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE - WHICH IS
DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION. THIS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN POOR FOR TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE DAY.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH, HOWEVER THIS WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER, WHICH AS MENTIONED BEFORE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS AND NW
NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY MID
DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF
ALTERNATING COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS
AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD
OF THESE FRONTS, FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 00Z. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE VARIABLE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING,
THEN LOWER TO STEADY IFR AS PRECIPITATION CHANGES FROM RAIN TO A
WINTRY MIX TO EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW. EXACTLY WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL START FROM KABE AND KRDG AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE TAF SITES, EXPECT A 1 TO 2 HOUR
WINDOW FOR A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW, BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL
SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE, AGAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK, AND
THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.


&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING, WE
HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-012-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...GAINES



000
FXUS61 KPHI 042043
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
343 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SEVERAL WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD ALONG A
COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS COLD FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY NIGHT AND WILL GIVE WAY TO AN
AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION ON FRIDAY. FOR THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE WILL ALTERNATE BETWEEN AREAS OF
HIGH PRESSURE AND COLD FRONTS MOVING THROUGH THE REGION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE THIS
EVENING. AS IT DOES SO, THE PRECIPITATION TYPE WILL CHANGE FROM RAIN
TO WINTRY PRECIPITATION. EXACTLY WHAT KIND OF WINTRY PRECIPITATION
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE IN THE REGION AND WHAT TIME THE FRONT FINALLY
COMES THROUGH. FOR THE POCONOS AND LEHIGH VALLEY IN PA AND NORTHWEST
NJ, IT LOOKS LIKE A PRETTY FAST AND CLEAN TRANSITION FROM RAIN TO
SNOW BY LATE THIS EVENING. FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR, CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN NJ, AND FAR NORTHERN DELMARVA, A WARM NOSE IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AROUND OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE LOW LEVELS, MAKING A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A WINTRY MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW POSSIBLE BEFORE
CHANGING OVER TO ALL SNOW. SOUTHERN DELMARVA SHOULD STAY MOSTLY RAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS UNTIL JUST BEFORE SUNRISE - WHICH IS
DISCUSSED MORE IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION. THIS ALL DEPENDENT ON THE
TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE TEMPERATURES, WHICH GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN POOR FOR TEMPERATURES MOST OF THE DAY.

AS FOR SNOW AMOUNTS, THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST QPF HAS SHIFTED FURTHER
SOUTH, HOWEVER THIS WILL ALL BE DEPENDENT ON THE TIMING OF THE
CHANGE OVER, WHICH AS MENTIONED BEFORE IS STILL UNCERTAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...

THE WARM NOSE WILL STILL BE PRESENT, AND SHOULD IN FACT BE A BIT
DEEPER OVER SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THEY DROP NEAR AND BELOW FREEZING
NEAR SUNRISE. AS SUCH, COULD SEE A MIX OF FREEZING RAIN AND SLEET
BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL SNOW NO LATER THAN MID MORNING. ON THE
OTHER SIDE OF THE REGION, DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE POCONOS AND NW
NJ COULD ERODE AND END THE PRECIPITATION FOR THOSE AREAS BY MID
DAY.

DRY AIR ADVECTION WILL TAKE OVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REST OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALLOWING THE PRECIPITATION TO TAPER OFF
ALMOST EVERYWHERE BY LATE AFTERNOON.
&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

FAIRLY QUIET WITH A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN OF
ALTERNATING COLD FRONTS AND WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WARM-UPS
AHEAD OF THESE FRONTS. SLIGHT TO LOW PRECIPITATION CHANCES AHEAD
OF THESE FRONTS, FOCUSED NORTH.

THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY: A COLD FRIDAY MORNING IS ON TAP
WITH SNOWCOVER IN PLACE, CLEAR SKIES AND MAINLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10
MPH. RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD ALLOW FOR A QUICK TEMPERATURE DROP
AFTER CLOUDS CLEAR. WENT COLDER THAN MAV AND MET GUIDANCE SETS
CLOSER TO THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES FROM THE GFS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION KEEPING THIS PERIOD DRY WITH A
EVENTUAL SWING FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AND MODERATING
TEMPERATURES BY SATURDAY. TRENDED COLDER THAN THE MET AND MAV AT
NIGHT DUE TO SNOWCOVER AND WARMER DURING THE DAY. THESE GUIDANCE
SETS HAVE BEEN RUNNING WITH A COLD BIAS IN THE DAYTIME. SOUNDINGS
ALSO YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 15 MPH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON.


SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY: A COLD FRONT WILL DECAY INTO A TROUGH
ACROSS NEW ENGLAND BY SUNDAY MORNING PROVIDING AN INCREASE IN
CLOUDS AND PERHAPS A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE REGION, CLOSER TO THE FRONT. A FEW 06Z GEFS
MEMBERS HAVE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF COMING NORTH AS WELL, FOR NOW
WILL GO WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS AWAY FROM THIS IDEA. SNOWCOVER
SHOULD LESS OF A CONCERN WITH TEMPERATURES BY SUNDAY. WITH MORE
CLOUDS AROUND THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM WPC IS PREFERRED FOR MOST
ELEMENTS. WINDS ARE MORE IN LINE WITH THE NAM/GFS MODELS THOUGH.


SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY: ONCE AGAIN HIGH PRESSURE IS IN CONTROL
IN THE REGION WITH GENERAL WEST WINDS. THIS WILL RESULT IN A BRIEF
PERIOD OF COOLER TEMPERATURES SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SPRING LIKE DAYS
ON MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY AGAIN LOOKS TO
FOCUS ON NEW ENGLAND FOR MONDAY, ANOTHER LOW CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION. THEN THIS WILL BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM. THE AIRMASS BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST IN
SOME TIME ACROSS THE REGION. LIKED THE DIRECTION OF THE ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE TO TREND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
MODELED TWO METER TEMPERATURES. THE MODELED TWO METER TEMPS LOOK
TO COOL SHOULD SOME SOUTHERLY COMPONENT GET INVOLVED, THIS LOOKS
LIKE IT HAS A FAIR CHANCE OF OCCURRING BY WEDNESDAY. FORECAST
HIGH OF 56 AT PHL WEDNESDAY, I`M SURE THIS WILL BE WELCOME TO
MANY. LOW PRESSURE THAT FORMS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO TUE-WED LOOKS
TO STAY SOUTH OF OUR REGION ATTM.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS WILL GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR CONDITIONS BY 00Z. VISIBILITIES
WILL BE VARIABLE BETWEEN IFR AND MVFR THROUGH MUCH OF THIS EVENING,
THEN LOWER TO STEADY IFR AS PRECIPITATION CHANGES FROM RAIN TO A
WINTRY MIX TO EVENTUALLY ALL SNOW. EXACTLY WHEN THIS WILL HAPPEN IS
STILL UNCERTAIN AND WILL START FROM KABE AND KRDG AND MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. FOR THE TAF SITES, EXPECT A 1 TO 2 HOUR
WINDOW FOR A MIX OF SLEET AND SNOW, BEFORE IT CHANGES OVER TO ALL
SNOW. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY IMPROVE, AGAIN FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST BETWEEN 15 AND 00Z THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.


OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY NIGHT: IMPROVING TO VFR BY MID-EVENING. NORTHWEST WIND
AROUND 10 KNOTS.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT: VFR, NORTHWEST WIND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT: VFR, WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10
KNOTS, GUSTS AROUND 15 KNOTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.  MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING, PASSING RAIN/SNOW SHOWER CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT FOR ABE.

MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT: VFR, MID-LEVEL CLOUDS.

&&

.MARINE...

OUTLOOK..

SEAS LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW FIVE FEET THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE OUTLOOK
PERIOD, WITH SEAS NEAR FIVE FEET EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT. THE FORECAST
IS ABOUT A FOOT HIGHER THAN WAVEWATCH. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS AROUND
20 KNOTS MAY OCCUR THURSDAY EVENING. OTHERWISE WIND GUSTS SHOULD
STAY UNDER 20 KNOTS. SOME FREEZING SPRAY MAY OCCUR THURSDAY NIGHT
AND EARLY FRIDAY IN ICE FREE WATERS. CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH FOR ANY
MODERATE FREEZING SPRAY IN TERMS OF DURATION AND LIKELIHOOD, MAY
JUST LAST A FEW HOURS IF IT OCCURS. WITH SOME MODERATE FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE GRIDS, DID INCLUDE MENTION IN THE HWO.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY. IN GENERAL AND BREAKING THE CWA INTO
THIRDS, A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN THIRD BY AROUND MIDNIGHT, THE MIDDLE THIRD BY DAYBREAK, AND
THE SOUTHERN THIRD BY MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

WITH THE GROUND BEING FROZEN EVERYWHERE, ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER.

MORNING MODELS CONTINUE TO PRODUCE BETWEEN 0.50 TO 1.00 INCH OF QPF
BEFORE THE CHANGEOVER. WITH THIS AMOUNT, WE FEEL NUISANCE POOR
DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE LESS CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED BETWEEN 1.50 TO 2.00 INCHES
OF LIQUID (OVER A 6 TO 12 HOUR PERIOD), EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL
RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND
STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS. NONE OF OUR RIVER FORECAST POINTS ARE
FORECAST TO HIT FLOOD STAGE OR EVEN CAUTION STAGE.

THE SHORT TERM GOOD NEWS IS THAT RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO SNOW
QUICKER ACROSS PLACES THAT HAVE A SNOWPACK AND WHERE MORE RAIN IS
EXPECTED, THERE IS LESS SNOW PACK.

THE LONGER TERM BAD NEWS IS THAT WE`RE POTENTIALLY KICKING THE CAN
DOWN THE LINE AND JUST ADDING TO OUR SNOWPACK FOR A FUTURE MELT.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS. THE GOOD NEWS IS WE`VE
SEEN SOME RECESSION/MELT THE LAST FEW DAYS.


&&

.CLIMATE...
CLIMATE: WITH A SNOWCOVER IN PLACE AND ANOTHER ARCTIC AIRMASS
SETTLING INTO THE REGION AND RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURRING, WE
HAVE ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MORE RECORD LOWS ACROSS THE REGION.

FRIDAY 3/6

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1888
PHL 10 1978
ILG 11 1926
ABE 7  1960
TTN 7  1872
GED 10 1978
RDG 7  1978
MPO -5 1909


THE CURRENT FORECAST CURRENTLY HAS MOST LOCATIONS BREAKING THERE
RECORD LOW ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WOULD BE MOUNT
POCONO.

SATURDAY 3/7

RECORD LOWS

ACY 10 1890
PHL 9  1960
ILG 11 1960
ABE 1  1960
TTN 7  1890
GED 3  1960
RDG 10 1989
MPO -18 1911

MOST LOCATIONS ARE FORECASTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER THAN THE
RECORD LOWS FOR SATURDAY MORNING.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ054-055-061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-012-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GAINES
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GAINES
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON
MARINE...GAINES/JOHNSON
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO
CLIMATE...GAINES




000
FXUS61 KPHI 041758
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1258 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT...ATTACHED TO LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CANADA...WILL
CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND STALL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM EST UPDATE...NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE NEAR TERM EXCEPT TO
EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE AREAS AND THE
PRECIPITATION IS ALL RAIN AT THIS POINT. HAVE KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH GOING FOR THESE LOCATIONS AS I WOULD LIKE TO TAKE A
LOOK AT THE 12Z MODELS BEFORE DECIDING ON ANY CHANGES FOR THE
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY
THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND IT SHOULD BE LOCATED IN NORTH CAROLINA BY EVENING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN OUR REGION TODAY WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN SPOTS
IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY EARLY THIS MORNING.
AS A RESULT, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
PATCHY FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THERE.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 30S IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES FOR TODAY AND THEY SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S IN THE SOUTH.
A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SLOWLY TO OUR SOUTH DURING
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT.
ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS PRECIPITATION RIDES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. WE CONTINUE
TO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL THROUGH THE 30S TONIGHT AND
INTO THE 20S FOR THURSDAY IN MUCH OF OUR REGION.

PERIODS OF RAIN WILL TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET TO SNOW FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH IN OUR REGION TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE
ALL SNOW IN OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY.

WE HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR ALL BUT THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING SNOWFALL TOTALS GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 9 INCH
RANGE IN THE WARNING AREA BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. WE MAY SEE
SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE, PERHAPS IN THE 3 TO 7
INCH RANGE.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES WILL REACH THEIR 6 INCH SNOWFALL CRITERION FOR A WARNING.
WE WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WATCH GOING THERE FOR A BIT LONGER.

THE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE END OF THE STORM EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE STEADY SNOWS
MOVING OFF THE E/SE AREAS EARLY. A CHC POP FOR THE BEGINNING FEW
HOURS OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING ADVANCES FROM N/W TO S/E
OVERNIGHT. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS. WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO BY DAWN...PERHAPS AS LOW AS -12 TO -15 FAR
NORTH.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...FAIR WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY MARCH ARE 20 OR SO DEGREES ABOVE THAT.

SAT/SAT NIGHT...FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MOST AREAS. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS. TEMPERATURES
MODERATING...BUT STILL 10 OR SO DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUN/SUN NIGHT...FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

MON/MON NIGHT...FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A WEAK
LOW/FRONT CROSSING THE REGION. POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE ATTM.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FAIR WEATHER MON NIGHT.

TUE...FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS CLOSE TO 50
DEGREES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND METRO PHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR FOR MOST OF THE
REGION, ALTHOUGH KACY AND KMIV MAY SEE MAINLY IFR, THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN MVFR. HOWEVER, BY MID AFTERNOON,
CEILINGS SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO IFR AS SOMEWHAT MILD AIR SETTLES
OVER THE COLD GROUND AND ADDITIONAL RAIN SPREADS OVER OUR REGION.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IFR FOR TONIGHT AS RAIN BECOME STEADIER THIS
EVENING. COLD AIR WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AND
THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET TO SNOW. A SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
IT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE AIRFIELDS.

A LIGHT WIND SHOULD VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST
TODAY. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH FOR
TONIGHT AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY...IFR WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST SWELL HAS RESULTED IN WAVES CONTINUING ABOVE 5 FT. THUS,
HAVE BEGUN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW. WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS LATE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SINKS THROUGH OUR REGION. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH FOR TONIGHT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED BEGINNING 4 AM TOMORROW MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED LATER.

OUTLOOK..

THU NIGHT...SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED.

FRI THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE MONITOR LATEST QPF FCSTS FROM WPC AND MARFC.

THE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW
ISN`T EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.

WHILE THERE ISN`T MUCH OF A SNOWPACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OUR CWA, THE GROUND IS FROZEN, AND ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT.

IF THE 0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF MATERIALIZES, WE FEEL NUISANCE
POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME. MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED ABOUT 2.50 INCHES
OF LIQUID, EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW
TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS.

WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY, BY THEMSELVES, WOULD NOT
CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE THE
DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-012-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 041758
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1258 PM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT...ATTACHED TO LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CANADA...WILL
CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND STALL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM EST UPDATE...NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE NEAR TERM EXCEPT TO
EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE AREAS AND THE
PRECIPITATION IS ALL RAIN AT THIS POINT. HAVE KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH GOING FOR THESE LOCATIONS AS I WOULD LIKE TO TAKE A
LOOK AT THE 12Z MODELS BEFORE DECIDING ON ANY CHANGES FOR THE
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY
THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND IT SHOULD BE LOCATED IN NORTH CAROLINA BY EVENING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN OUR REGION TODAY WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN SPOTS
IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY EARLY THIS MORNING.
AS A RESULT, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
PATCHY FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THERE.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 30S IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES FOR TODAY AND THEY SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S IN THE SOUTH.
A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SLOWLY TO OUR SOUTH DURING
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT.
ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS PRECIPITATION RIDES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. WE CONTINUE
TO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL THROUGH THE 30S TONIGHT AND
INTO THE 20S FOR THURSDAY IN MUCH OF OUR REGION.

PERIODS OF RAIN WILL TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET TO SNOW FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH IN OUR REGION TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE
ALL SNOW IN OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY.

WE HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR ALL BUT THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING SNOWFALL TOTALS GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 9 INCH
RANGE IN THE WARNING AREA BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. WE MAY SEE
SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE, PERHAPS IN THE 3 TO 7
INCH RANGE.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES WILL REACH THEIR 6 INCH SNOWFALL CRITERION FOR A WARNING.
WE WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WATCH GOING THERE FOR A BIT LONGER.

THE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE END OF THE STORM EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE STEADY SNOWS
MOVING OFF THE E/SE AREAS EARLY. A CHC POP FOR THE BEGINNING FEW
HOURS OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING ADVANCES FROM N/W TO S/E
OVERNIGHT. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS. WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO BY DAWN...PERHAPS AS LOW AS -12 TO -15 FAR
NORTH.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...FAIR WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY MARCH ARE 20 OR SO DEGREES ABOVE THAT.

SAT/SAT NIGHT...FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MOST AREAS. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS. TEMPERATURES
MODERATING...BUT STILL 10 OR SO DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUN/SUN NIGHT...FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

MON/MON NIGHT...FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A WEAK
LOW/FRONT CROSSING THE REGION. POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE ATTM.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FAIR WEATHER MON NIGHT.

TUE...FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS CLOSE TO 50
DEGREES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND METRO PHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR FOR MOST OF THE
REGION, ALTHOUGH KACY AND KMIV MAY SEE MAINLY IFR, THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN MVFR. HOWEVER, BY MID AFTERNOON,
CEILINGS SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO IFR AS SOMEWHAT MILD AIR SETTLES
OVER THE COLD GROUND AND ADDITIONAL RAIN SPREADS OVER OUR REGION.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IFR FOR TONIGHT AS RAIN BECOME STEADIER THIS
EVENING. COLD AIR WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AND
THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET TO SNOW. A SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
IT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE AIRFIELDS.

A LIGHT WIND SHOULD VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST
TODAY. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH FOR
TONIGHT AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY...IFR WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTHEAST SWELL HAS RESULTED IN WAVES CONTINUING ABOVE 5 FT. THUS,
HAVE BEGUN THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW. WESTERLY WINDS SHOULD
BACK TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND 10 KNOTS LATE TODAY AS A COLD FRONT
SINKS THROUGH OUR REGION. THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH FOR TONIGHT AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL
INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED BEGINNING 4 AM TOMORROW MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY
TOMORROW. THE SCA MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED LATER.

OUTLOOK..

THU NIGHT...SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED.

FRI THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE MONITOR LATEST QPF FCSTS FROM WPC AND MARFC.

THE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW
ISN`T EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.

WHILE THERE ISN`T MUCH OF A SNOWPACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OUR CWA, THE GROUND IS FROZEN, AND ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT.

IF THE 0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF MATERIALIZES, WE FEEL NUISANCE
POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME. MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED ABOUT 2.50 INCHES
OF LIQUID, EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW
TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS.

WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY, BY THEMSELVES, WOULD NOT
CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE THE
DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-012-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 041408
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
908 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT...ATTACHED TO LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CANADA...WILL
CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND STALL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM EST UPDATE...NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE NEAR TERM EXCEPT TO
EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE AREAS AND THE
PRECIPITATION IS ALL RAIN AT THIS POINT. HAVE KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH GOING FOR THESE LOCATIONS AS I WOULD LIKE TO TAKE A
LOOK AT THE 12Z MODELS BEFORE DECIDING ON ANY CHANGES FOR THE
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY
THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND IT SHOULD BE LOCATED IN NORTH CAROLINA BY EVENING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN OUR REGION TODAY WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN SPOTS
IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY EARLY THIS MORNING.
AS A RESULT, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
PATCHY FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THERE.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 30S IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES FOR TODAY AND THEY SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S IN THE SOUTH.
A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SLOWLY TO OUR SOUTH DURING
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT.
ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS PRECIPITATION RIDES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. WE CONTINUE
TO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL THROUGH THE 30S TONIGHT AND
INTO THE 20S FOR THURSDAY IN MUCH OF OUR REGION.

PERIODS OF RAIN WILL TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET TO SNOW FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH IN OUR REGION TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE
ALL SNOW IN OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY.

WE HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR ALL BUT THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING SNOWFALL TOTALS GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 9 INCH
RANGE IN THE WARNING AREA BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. WE MAY SEE
SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE, PERHAPS IN THE 3 TO 7
INCH RANGE.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES WILL REACH THEIR 6 INCH SNOWFALL CRITERION FOR A WARNING.
WE WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WATCH GOING THERE FOR A BIT LONGER.

THE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE END OF THE STORM EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE STEADY SNOWS
MOVING OFF THE E/SE AREAS EARLY. A CHC POP FOR THE BEGINNING FEW
HOURS OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING ADVANCES FROM N/W TO S/E
OVERNIGHT. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS. WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO BY DAWN...PERHAPS AS LOW AS -12 TO -15 FAR
NORTH.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...FAIR WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY MARCH ARE 20 OR SO DEGREES ABOVE THAT.

SAT/SAT NIGHT...FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MOST AREAS. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS. TEMPERATURES
MODERATING...BUT STILL 10 OR SO DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUN/SUN NIGHT...FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

MON/MON NIGHT...FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A WEAK
LOW/FRONT CROSSING THE REGION. POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE ATTM.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FAIR WEATHER MON NIGHT.

TUE...FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS CLOSE TO 50
DEGREES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND METRO PHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR FOR MOST OF THE
REGION, ALTHOUGH KACY AND KMIV MAY SEE MAINLY IFR, THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN MVFR. HOWEVER, BY MID AFTERNOON,
CEILINGS SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO IFR AS SOMEWHAT MILD AIR SETTLES
OVER THE COLD GROUND AND ADDITIONAL RAIN SPREADS OVER OUR REGION.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IFR FOR TONIGHT AS RAIN BECOME STEADIER THIS
EVENING. COLD AIR WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AND
THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET TO SNOW. A SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
IT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE AIRFIELDS.

A LIGHT WIND SHOULD VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST
TODAY. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH FOR
TONIGHT AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY...IFR WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
THIS MORNING SHOULD BACK TO THE WEST, THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND
10 KNOTS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SINKS THROUGH OUR REGION. THE WIND
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH FOR TONIGHT
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING 4 AM TOMORROW
MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. THE SCA MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED LATER.

OUTLOOK..

THU NIGHT...SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED.

FRI THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE MONITOR LATEST QPF FCSTS FROM WPC AND MARFC.

THE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW
ISN`T EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.

WHILE THERE ISN`T MUCH OF A SNOWPACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OUR CWA, THE GROUND IS FROZEN, AND ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT.

IF THE 0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF MATERIALIZES, WE FEEL NUISANCE
POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME. MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED ABOUT 2.50 INCHES
OF LIQUID, EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW
TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS.

WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY, BY THEMSELVES, WOULD NOT
CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE THE
DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-012-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 041408
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
908 AM EST WED MAR 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT...ATTACHED TO LOW PRESSURE ACROSS CANADA...WILL
CROSS THE AREA TODAY AND STALL TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE
WILL MOVE ALONG THE FRONT TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A WEAK DISTURBANCE
WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. MORE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL ARRIVE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM EST UPDATE...NOT MANY CHANGES IN THE NEAR TERM EXCEPT TO
EXPIRE THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE POCONOS AND NORTHWEST
NEW JERSEY. TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING IN THESE AREAS AND THE
PRECIPITATION IS ALL RAIN AT THIS POINT. HAVE KEPT THE WINTER
STORM WATCH GOING FOR THESE LOCATIONS AS I WOULD LIKE TO TAKE A
LOOK AT THE 12Z MODELS BEFORE DECIDING ON ANY CHANGES FOR THE
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SLOWLY
THROUGH OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY IN THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES
AND IT SHOULD BE LOCATED IN NORTH CAROLINA BY EVENING.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN OUR REGION TODAY WITH
OCCASIONAL RAIN. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW FREEZING IN SPOTS
IN THE POCONOS AND IN FAR NORTHERN NEW JERSEY EARLY THIS MORNING.
AS A RESULT, A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR
PATCHY FREEZING RAIN AND FREEZING DRIZZLE THERE.

TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 30S IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES FOR TODAY AND THEY SHOULD RISE INTO THE 40S IN THE SOUTH.
A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME WEST THEN
NORTHWEST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SLOWLY TO OUR SOUTH DURING
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVE ALONG IT.
ARCTIC AIR WILL BEGIN TO FILTER INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS PRECIPITATION RIDES NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT. WE CONTINUE
TO EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL FOR OUR FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO FALL THROUGH THE 30S TONIGHT AND
INTO THE 20S FOR THURSDAY IN MUCH OF OUR REGION.

PERIODS OF RAIN WILL TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET TO SNOW FROM NORTH
TO SOUTH IN OUR REGION TONIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION TYPE SHOULD BE
ALL SNOW IN OUR REGION FOR THURSDAY.

WE HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING
FOR ALL BUT THE LEHIGH VALLEY, THE POCONOS AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING SNOWFALL TOTALS GENERALLY IN THE 5 TO 9 INCH
RANGE IN THE WARNING AREA BASED ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. WE MAY SEE
SLIGHTLY LOWER AMOUNTS IN SOUTHERN DELAWARE, PERHAPS IN THE 3 TO 7
INCH RANGE.

THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHETHER OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES WILL REACH THEIR 6 INCH SNOWFALL CRITERION FOR A WARNING.
WE WILL KEEP THE WINTER STORM WATCH GOING THERE FOR A BIT LONGER.

THE SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS DRY AIR BEGINS TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE END OF THE STORM EARLY THURSDAY NIGHT WITH THE STEADY SNOWS
MOVING OFF THE E/SE AREAS EARLY. A CHC POP FOR THE BEGINNING FEW
HOURS OF THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. CLEARING ADVANCES FROM N/W TO S/E
OVERNIGHT. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS MOST AREAS. WIND
CHILLS BELOW ZERO BY DAWN...PERHAPS AS LOW AS -12 TO -15 FAR
NORTH.

FRI/FRI NIGHT...FAIR WEATHER WITH HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES REMAIN SOLIDLY BELOW NORMAL. HIGHS IN THE MID/UPPER
20S. NORMAL HIGHS FOR EARLY MARCH ARE 20 OR SO DEGREES ABOVE THAT.

SAT/SAT NIGHT...FAIR WEATHER ACROSS MOST AREAS. A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN POCONOS. TEMPERATURES
MODERATING...BUT STILL 10 OR SO DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

SUN/SUN NIGHT...FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL.

MON/MON NIGHT...FEW SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE EARLY WITH A WEAK
LOW/FRONT CROSSING THE REGION. POPS IN THE SLGT CHC RANGE ATTM.
TEMPS SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL. FAIR WEATHER MON NIGHT.

TUE...FAIR WEATHER WITH TEMPS NEAR NORMAL. HIGHS CLOSE TO 50
DEGREES POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND METRO PHILLY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS MAY VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR FOR MOST OF THE
REGION, ALTHOUGH KACY AND KMIV MAY SEE MAINLY IFR, THIS MORNING.
VISIBILITIES SHOULD REMAIN MVFR. HOWEVER, BY MID AFTERNOON,
CEILINGS SHOULD SETTLE BACK INTO IFR AS SOMEWHAT MILD AIR SETTLES
OVER THE COLD GROUND AND ADDITIONAL RAIN SPREADS OVER OUR REGION.

CONDITIONS SHOULD BE IFR FOR TONIGHT AS RAIN BECOME STEADIER THIS
EVENING. COLD AIR WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH AND
THE RAIN WILL TRANSITION THROUGH SLEET TO SNOW. A SIGNIFICANT SNOW
ACCUMULATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AND
IT WILL HAVE AN IMPACT ON THE AIRFIELDS.

A LIGHT WIND SHOULD VEER FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHWEST
TODAY. THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH FOR
TONIGHT AROUND 6 TO 12 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...

THURSDAY...IFR WITH SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL.

THURSDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS RETURNING TO VFR OVERNIGHT.

FRIDAY THRU SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS
THIS MORNING SHOULD BACK TO THE WEST, THEN TO THE NORTHWEST AROUND
10 KNOTS TODAY AS A COLD FRONT SINKS THROUGH OUR REGION. THE WIND
IS EXPECTED TO SETTLE INTO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH FOR TONIGHT
AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WINDS WILL INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT. THUS A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED BEGINNING 4 AM TOMORROW
MORNING, CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW. THE SCA MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED LATER.

OUTLOOK..

THU NIGHT...SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED.

FRI THRU SUN...MOSTLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
PLEASE MONITOR LATEST QPF FCSTS FROM WPC AND MARFC.

THE FORECASTS CONTINUE TO SHOW A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY. A CHANGEOVER TO SLEET OR SNOW
ISN`T EXPECTED TO OCCUR UNTIL EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN AREAS.

WHILE THERE ISN`T MUCH OF A SNOWPACK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
OUR CWA, THE GROUND IS FROZEN, AND ANY RUNOFF WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT.

IF THE 0.75 TO 1.00 INCHES OF QPF MATERIALIZES, WE FEEL NUISANCE
POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING FLOODING WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY
OUTCOME. MODELED SOLUTIONS SUGGEST WE WOULD NEED ABOUT 2.50 INCHES
OF LIQUID, EITHER IN THE FORM OF ALL RAIN OR RAIN AND MELTING SNOW
TO HAVE OUR SOUTHERN CREEKS AND STREAMS LEAVE THEIR BANKS.

WITH MORE SNOW OR SLEET EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA, WE`RE NOT CONCERNED ABOUT FLOODING THERE.

WITH THE RAINFALL, THE FLOW ON AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS WILL
INCREASE. THIS COULD START TO MOVE ICE, AND IN A WORST CASE
SCENARIO, CREATE RESTRICTIONS OR JAMS.

CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST. KEEP IN MIND THAT SNOWMELT AND
THE WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TODAY, BY THEMSELVES, WOULD NOT
CAUSE FLOODING. THE AMOUNT OF RAIN THAT WE RECEIVE WILL BE THE
DETERMINING FACTOR.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR PAZ054-055-061-062.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ060-101>106.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR NJZ001-007-008.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ009-010-012-015.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR NJZ013-014-016>027.
DE...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR DEZ001-002.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR DEZ003-
     004.
MD...WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
     THURSDAY FOR MDZ008-012-015-019-020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST THURSDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON/O`HARA
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON/O`HARA
HYDROLOGY...KRUZDLO




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