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000
FXUS61 KPHI 270122
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
922 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA DURING THE EARLY
AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE WEEK. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
INTO OUR REGION GRADUALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST. ANOTHER
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA
COAST ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY BEFORE
PASSING OFF THE COAST DURING THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS LOCATED FROM ABOUT THE CANADIAN MARITIMES
WESTWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES THEN DOWN INTO THE OHIO VALLEY. THE
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY THIS EVENING SHOWS SEVERAL WELL DEFINED SHORT
WAVES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH. THESE WILL
SHIFT SOUTHWARD OVERNIGHT AND TEND TO KEEP SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE
IN PLACE. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE IS THE COVERAGE OF THE CLOUDS.
THEY HAVE TENDED TO THIN OUT WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING FOR
THE MOST PART, HOWEVER THERE ARE MORE LURKING JUST TO THE NORTH. THE
FORECAST SOUNDINGS HINT THAT THEY MAY OOZE SOUTHWARD DURING THE
NIGHT, HOWEVER JUST HOW FAR SOUTH AND TO THE EXTENT OF THEIR
COVERAGE IS OF SOME LOWER CONFIDENCE.

A SEA BREEZE WORKING ITS WAY WESTWARD IS JUST ABOUT TO THE DELAWARE
RIVER FOR CENTRAL/SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY /AS OF 0045Z/, ALTHOUGH IT IS
NOW WEAKENING. THIS FEATURE IS MARKED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST IN ITS WAKE AS WINDS AHEAD OF IT ARE FROM A NORTHERLY
DIRECTION. THEREFORE, SHOWED A BIT FASTER COOLING IN ITS WAKE ALONG
WITH A LITTLE INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS.

THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE THROUGH THE NIGHT,
HOWEVER WITH SOME CLOUDS PROBABLY HOLDING ON AT TIMES THE LOWS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE A BIT WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT. OVERALL, ANY FROST
IS EXPECTED TO BE RATHER PATCHY. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE
LOW TEMPERATURES ATTM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FOR MONDAY THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGH
PRES OVER THE MID-WEST AND LOW PRES WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A
CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT SHOULD BE
SMWHAT STRONGER THAN TODAY WITH A STRONGER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW. MAX TEMPS MONDAY AFTN COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY FROM PHL NORTH.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTN...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL HGT/THERMAL TROF ROTATES SWD ACROSS THE
AREA. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED INSTBY ALONG
WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOS WILL
REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH INVERTED-V TYPE SOUNDING. THUS THE PRECIP
FROM SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. WE HAVE INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS FOR MOST OF OUR FCST
AREA WITH SLGTLY HIER CHC POPS WELL N/W OF PHL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF NOVA
SCOTIA DURING THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH
CUMULUS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH IS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH A BIT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN OUR REGION RELAXES.

A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST AND IT SHOULD BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO, THERE IS IMPROVING BUT NOT
YET IDEAL CONSENSUS REGARDING THE SURFACE LOW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION BASED ON ITS BETTER RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY.

THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE OFF CAPE HATTERAS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA. OUR REGION IS
ANTICIPATED TO STAY ON THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF ITS MAIN
IMPACTS. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN SO WE MAY OR
MAY NOT GET SOME RAIN IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY
ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. WE HAVE KEPT THE 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE TIME BEING. AN EAST WIND AROUND 10 MPH ON THURSDAY
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT
BACKS TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN TO THE NORTH.

THE COMPLEX MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THAT TIME. THE FEATURE
IS ANTICIPATED TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A
SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN STATES FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE FAR FROM NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR. A CEILING AT 6000-9000 FEET SCATTERING OUT
FOR MOST TERMINALS OVERALL. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 5-8 KNOTS
BECOMING LOCALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE, HOWEVER SOUTHEASTERLY THIS
EVENING MAINLY FOR AREAS NEAR AND SOUTH AND EAST OF KPHL DUE TO A
WEAKENING SEA BREEZE.

MONDAY...VFR OVERALL, WITH A CEILING AROUND 5000 FEET EXPECTED.
NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS /HIGHEST WINDS MAINLY IN THE AFTERNOON/. A FEW AFTERNOON
SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP, HOWEVER THE COVERAGE SHOULD BE ISOLATED TO
PERHAPS SCATTERED.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. AN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED
ALONG WITH ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON OPERATIONS AT KPHL.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RATHER QUIET OVER THE WATERS AND SHOULD
REMAIN SO TONIGHT AND FOR MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY. THE FLOW IS
ONSHORE THOUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS INCLUDING
DELAWARE BAY AS A SEA BREEZE TURNED THE WINDS SOUTHEASTERLY AND
INCREASED THEM A BIT THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD BECOME MORE
NORTHWESTERLY OVERNIGHT AS THE GRADIENT FLOW TAKES OVER. FOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND SEAS WILL
BEGIN TO BUILD. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA
DURING THE DAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE INTO MONDAY EVENING
WHEN A SCA WILL GO INTO EFFECT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR A NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 25 OR 30 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND FOR WAVES ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. THE WIND DIRECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO
BACK GRADUALLY FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS IF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OCEAN TRACKS CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP AROUND
30 PERCENT IN MUCH OF OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY,
IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH BOTH ELEMENTS WILL COME TOGETHER TO
CREATE AN ENHANCED CONCERN FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS MAY GET CLOSE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/GORSE/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 261936
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
336 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA DURING THE EARLY
AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE NEW WEEK. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO OUR REGION GRADUALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY
BEFORE PASSING OFF THE COAST DURING THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRES SHOULD CONT TO BUILD SWD INTO THE N-CNTRL
US AND SLIGHTLY EWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE LOW
PRES IS FCST TO RETRO-GRADE SWWD OVER NOVA SCOTIA IN ASSOCN WITH
AN UPPER TROF SWINGING SWD FROM SERN CANADA INTO THE NERN US. THE
RESULT WILL BE AN INCRG E-W PRES GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA WHICH
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT N-NNW FLOW OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT SOME CLOUDINESS IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROF. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...BUT SOME MID-30S ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME BETTER- RADIATING
AREAS. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST BUT EXTENT DOES NOT
SEEM WIDE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ANOTHER ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FOR MONDAY THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGH
PRES OVER THE MID-WEST AND LOW PRES WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A
CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT SHOULD BE
SMWHAT STRONGER THAN TODAY WITH A STRONGER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW. MAX TEMPS MONDAY AFTN COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY FROM PHL NORTH.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTN...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL HGT/THERMAL TROF ROTATES SWD ACROSS THE
AREA. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED INSTBY ALONG
WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOS WILL
REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH INVERTED VEE TYPE SOUNDING. THUS THE PRECIP
FROM SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. WE HAVE INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS FOR MOST OF OUR FCST
AREA WITH SLGTLY HIER CHC POPS WELL N/W OF PHL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF NOVA
SCOTIA DURING THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH
CUMULUS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH IS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH A BIT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN OUR REGION RELAXES.

A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST AND IT SHOULD BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO, THERE IS IMPROVING BUT NOT
YET IDEAL CONSENSUS REGARDING THE SURFACE LOW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION BASED ON ITS BETTER RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY.

THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE OFF CAPE HATTERAS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA. OUR REGION IS
ANTICIPATED TO STAY ON THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF ITS MAIN
IMPACTS. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN SO WE MAY OR
MAY NOT GET SOME RAIN IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY
ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. WE HAVE KEPT THE 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE TIME BEING. AN EAST WIND AROUND 10 MPH ON THURSDAY
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT
BACKS TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN TO THE NORTH.

THE COMPLEX MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THAT TIME. THE FEATURE
IS ANTICIPATED TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A
SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN STATES FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE FAR FROM NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL OUR TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTN STRATO-CU HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA BUT BASES ARE HIGH...WELL ABOVE BKN050. THESE CLOUDS WILL
TEND TO DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING BUT MAY LINGER A WHILE AFTER
SUNSET... ESPECIALLY AROUND RDG/ABE/TTN. A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE
AREA IS RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH A PREVAILING NW
DIRECTION GRADUALLY DEVELOPING.

FOR MONDAY...A STRONGER SFC PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH WILL RESULT IN STRONGER NW WINDS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT
ARE LIKELY DURG THE AFTN. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL DEVELOP BUT
AGAIN THE CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE 5K FT OR HIGHER. SOME CLOUDS WILL
BUILD UP HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS BUT MUCH OF THE RAIN IS
LIKELY TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...THUS LITTLE IF
ANY LIMITS TO VSBY ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. AN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED
ALONG WITH ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON OPERATIONS AT KPHL.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RATHER QUIET OVER THE FCST WATERS
AND SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
HWVR...FOR MONDAY AFTN WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD. CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA DURING THE DAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE INTO
MONDAY EVENING WHEN A SCA WILL GO INTO EFFECT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR A NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 25 OR 30 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND FOR WAVES ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. THE WIND DIRECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO
BACK GRADUALLY FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS IF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OCEAN TRACKS CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP AROUND
30 PERCENT IN MUCH OF OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY,
IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH BOTH ELEMENTS WILL COME TOGETHER TO
CREATE AN ENHANCED CONCERN FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS MAY GET CLOSE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 261936
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
336 PM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY OUT TO SEA DURING THE EARLY
AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE NEW WEEK. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD INTO OUR REGION GRADUALLY FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST.
ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS OFF THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST ON THURSDAY BEFORE MOVING OUT TO SEA. HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST ON FRIDAY
BEFORE PASSING OFF THE COAST DURING THE COMING WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...
FOR TONIGHT...HIGH PRES SHOULD CONT TO BUILD SWD INTO THE N-CNTRL
US AND SLIGHTLY EWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. MEANWHILE LOW
PRES IS FCST TO RETRO-GRADE SWWD OVER NOVA SCOTIA IN ASSOCN WITH
AN UPPER TROF SWINGING SWD FROM SERN CANADA INTO THE NERN US. THE
RESULT WILL BE AN INCRG E-W PRES GRADIENT OVER OUR AREA WHICH
SHOULD BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN A LIGHT N-NNW FLOW OVERNIGHT SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR BUT SOME CLOUDINESS IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE UPPER
TROF. OVERNIGHT MINS SHOULD BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN LAST
NIGHT...BUT SOME MID-30S ARE POSSIBLE IN SOME BETTER- RADIATING
AREAS. WILL INCLUDE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST BUT EXTENT DOES NOT
SEEM WIDE ENOUGH TO JUSTIFY ANOTHER ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...
FOR MONDAY THE SURFACE PATTERN WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY WITH HIGH
PRES OVER THE MID-WEST AND LOW PRES WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WITH A
CENTER NEAR NOVA SCOTIA. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE BUT SHOULD BE
SMWHAT STRONGER THAN TODAY WITH A STRONGER GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
HIGH AND LOW. MAX TEMPS MONDAY AFTN COULD BE A LITTLE COOLER THAN
TODAY DUE TO INCREASED CLOUDINESS...ESPECIALLY FROM PHL NORTH.

THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTN...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL HGT/THERMAL TROF ROTATES SWD ACROSS THE
AREA. COOLER TEMPS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN INCREASED INSTBY ALONG
WITH MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...HOWEVER THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOS WILL
REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH INVERTED VEE TYPE SOUNDING. THUS THE PRECIP
FROM SHOWERS THAT DEVELOP WILL TEND TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING
THE GROUND. WE HAVE INCLUDED SLGT CHC POPS FOR MOST OF OUR FCST
AREA WITH SLGTLY HIER CHC POPS WELL N/W OF PHL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF NOVA
SCOTIA DURING THE PERIOD FROM MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.
SOME CLEARING IS EXPECTED DURING THE COURSE OF MONDAY NIGHT WITH
CUMULUS ANTICIPATED TO DEVELOP ON TUESDAY DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING.
A NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH IS FORECAST FOR
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
DIMINISH A BIT FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN OUR REGION RELAXES.

A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST AND IT SHOULD BE OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THEIR
HANDLING OF THE DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
STATES FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALSO, THERE IS IMPROVING BUT NOT
YET IDEAL CONSENSUS REGARDING THE SURFACE LOW. WE WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION BASED ON ITS BETTER RUN TO RUN
CONSISTENCY.

THE SURFACE LOW SHOULD BE OFF CAPE HATTERAS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AND OUT TO SEA. OUR REGION IS
ANTICIPATED TO STAY ON THE NORTHWESTERN FRINGE OF ITS MAIN
IMPACTS. THE EXACT TRACK OF THE LOW REMAINS UNCERTAIN SO WE MAY OR
MAY NOT GET SOME RAIN IN ADDITION TO THE CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY
ON THE COASTAL PLAIN. WE HAVE KEPT THE 30 PERCENT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS FOR THE TIME BEING. AN EAST WIND AROUND 10 MPH ON THURSDAY
IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 MPH ON THURSDAY NIGHT AS IT
BACKS TO THE NORTHEAST, THEN TO THE NORTH.

THE COMPLEX MID LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE OUT OVER THE
WESTERN NORTH ATLANTIC FOR THE WEEKEND. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE IS
EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN FROM THE NORTHWEST AT THAT TIME. THE FEATURE
IS ANTICIPATED TO HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT. A
SUBSTANTIAL RIDGE FROM THE WEST IS FORECAST TO BUILD OVER THE
EASTERN STATES FOR THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF MAY.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD NOT BE FAR FROM NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD FROM
TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT ALL OUR TAF SITES FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO. AFTN STRATO-CU HAVE DEVELOPED OVER MUCH OF
THE AREA BUT BASES ARE HIGH...WELL ABOVE BKN050. THESE CLOUDS WILL
TEND TO DISSIPATE DURING THE EVENING BUT MAY LINGER A WHILE AFTER
SUNSET... ESPECIALLY AROUND RDG/ABE/TTN. A WEAK SFC TROF OVER THE
AREA IS RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TONIGHT BUT WITH A PREVAILING NW
DIRECTION GRADUALLY DEVELOPING.

FOR MONDAY...A STRONGER SFC PRES GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH WILL RESULT IN STRONGER NW WINDS. SOME GUSTS TO AROUND 20KT
ARE LIKELY DURG THE AFTN. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WILL DEVELOP BUT
AGAIN THE CLOUD BASES SHOULD BE 5K FT OR HIGHER. SOME CLOUDS WILL
BUILD UP HIGH ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SHOWERS BUT MUCH OF THE RAIN IS
LIKELY TO EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...THUS LITTLE IF
ANY LIMITS TO VSBY ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS. AN EAST TO NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 10 KNOTS IS EXPECTED
ALONG WITH ITS POTENTIAL IMPACT ON OPERATIONS AT KPHL.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY RATHER QUIET OVER THE FCST WATERS
AND SHOULD REMAIN SO FOR TONIGHT AND MUCH OF THE DAY TOMORROW.
HWVR...FOR MONDAY AFTN WINDS WILL INCREASE FROM THE NW AND SEAS
WILL BEGIN TO BUILD. CONDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW SCA
CRITERIA DURING THE DAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DETERIORATE INTO
MONDAY EVENING WHEN A SCA WILL GO INTO EFFECT.

OUTLOOK...

MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR A NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND GUSTING TO 25 OR 30 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...NO MARINE HEADLINES
ARE ANTICIPATED.

THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS AND FOR WAVES ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS IN EXCESS OF 5 FEET. THE WIND DIRECTION IS ANTICIPATED TO
BACK GRADUALLY FROM THE EAST TO THE NORTH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL
FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS IF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE OCEAN TRACKS CLOSER
TO THE COAST THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WIND GUSTS AROUND 20 MPH ARE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY MORNING WITH
GUSTS FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 10 TO 15 MPH RANGE DURING THE
AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP AROUND
30 PERCENT IN MUCH OF OUR REGION ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. PRESENTLY,
IT DOES NOT APPEAR AS THOUGH BOTH ELEMENTS WILL COME TOGETHER TO
CREATE AN ENHANCED CONCERN FOR WILDFIRE SPREAD. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS MAY GET CLOSE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 8 PM MONDAY TO NOON EDT TUESDAY FOR
     ANZ430-431-450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...AMC
SHORT TERM...AMC
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...AMC/IOVINO
MARINE...AMC/IOVINO
FIRE WEATHER...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 261338
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA
TODAY AND MERGE INTO A LARGE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA EARLY THIS WEEK. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY
MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST WEDNESDAY THEN
INTENSIFIES NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY. IT BECOMES A LARGE CIRCULATION
FRIDAY TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.  WARMER HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS TO
OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE 930 AM UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK SO NO BIG CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR
TODAY. OCEAN WATER TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 40S AND THERE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT OF AN ONSHORE BREEZE TODAY SO MAX TEMPS NEAR THE SHORE
WERE LOWERED A BIT. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE 5 TO 10
DEG F WARMER THAN YDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM PHL SWD WHERE CLOUDS ARE
CLEARING OUT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN IS EXPECTED. LIGHT NLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRAD BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE
LOW AND HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE MS VLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE
EAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A DRY
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING AND THEN IT SHOULD BECOME SUNNY THERE LATER. SOME
DAYTIME CU WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE MOSTLY N OR NE AT 5 TO 10 MPH. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S OR LOW 60S...SO
OVERALL QUITE PLEASANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN TO THE
WEST WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
OVERALL...SKY CONDITIONS WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH
AND LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM THE
NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: COLDER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS PREVAIL HERE MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR NOVA SCOTIA, DOMINATING THE FLOW HERE THROUGH TUESDAY.
THEN A POTENTIALLY COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS MAY YIELD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW NEAR LONG ISLAND BY
FRIDAY. RIDGING FOLLOWS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY, MAYBE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY, WITH A DEFINITE WARMING TREND TO FOLLOW NEXT
WEEKEND!

THE 12/25 NAEFS SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE HAS NOTHING EXTREME FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA THE NEXT 6 DAYS.

HAZARDS THIS 6 DAY PERIOD: FIRE WEATHER IS THE MOST LIKELY CONSIDERATION
PRIOR TO NEXT WEEKEND.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/26 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY-TUESDAY, 00Z/26 MEX MOS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN THE 0521Z/26 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP,
12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY.


THE DAILIES...

MONDAY...BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 MPH DURING THE DAY,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY WITH
SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS, MAINLY THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY DAY,  PROBABLY CLEARING AT NIGHT.  NNW WIND
GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE DAY, DIMINISHING AT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LIGHT WEST WIND.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
EXCEPT BELOW AVERAGE ON THE SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS MENTIONED IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER AS THE WESTERN LOBE OF THE THE ATLANTIC TROUGH ROTATES SEWD
OVERHEAD AND TRIES TO FORM A CLOSED LOW. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE DAY, POSSIBLY HIGHER COAST. CONFIDENCE:
BELOW AVERAGE.

A CAVEAT FOR THURSDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE INTERACTION OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES MAY YET RESULT IN A
STRONG RAINY GALE FOR OUR COAST THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. NORTHWEST WIND. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE. 00Z/26 GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED TODAY AT ALL TAF SITES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LIGHT NNE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO NNW THIS
AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT GUSTY NE WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT PHL THIS
MORNING...THIS SEEMS TO BE A LOCAL EFFECT AND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
GOOD FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION BEFORE MOVING EAST. CLOUDS ARE OF THE
MID VARIETY ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ WITH HIGH CLOUDS FATHER
NORTH. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT NW/W AND THEY WILL TURN NE AFTER
SUNRISE. LATER TODAY...A CONTINUATION OF VFR WITH DAYTIME CU SCT
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS MOSTLY NE 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TONIGHT...VFR
(MOSTLY CLEAR) WITH NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY DAYLIGHT HOURS.
NW WIND GUSTY 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NNW WIND GUSTY 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER. LIGHT WEST WIND. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER, MAINLY DAYLIGHT
HOURS. N-NE WIND GUSTY 20 KT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF THE DEVELOPING OCEAN GALE
COMING CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN NOW GENERALLY EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT A BAD DAY TO BE OUT ON THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE GENTLE
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL MOSTLY NE
TODAY AND THEN TURN MORE NWRLY TONIGHT. WINDS SPEEDS MOSTLY UNDER 10
KNOTS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MOSTLY AROUND 2 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND ON THE BAY 1 TO 2 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS FAR S
BEFORE DAWN TODAY...THEN DRY THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE IT WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE WITH NW WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ALONG THE NEAREST MILE OF THE COAST BUT LESS WIND
ONCE AWAY FROM THE DOCK. NO SCA HAZARD YET. CONFIDENCE FOR A
NEARSHORE SCA IS ABOVE AVERAGE BUT NOT YET CATEGORICAL.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NW
WIND TUESDAY GUST TO 20 KT AND THEN A LIGHT WIND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY APPEARS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL PROBABLY EXCEED 5 FEET
OFF NJ AND 7 FEET EAST OF DELAWARE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
GALE FORCE GUSTS AND 13 FEET SEAS. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SIZE, STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
NEWD MOVING COASTAL CAROLINA LOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY FUELS AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH`S OF 25 TO 35 PCT MAY NECESSITATE
STATEMENTS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER SOMETIME BETWEEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE
CLOSE TO THE NEEDED CRITERIA OR JUST BELOW. RH`S ARE MARGINAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 261338
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA
TODAY AND MERGE INTO A LARGE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA EARLY THIS WEEK. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY
MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST WEDNESDAY THEN
INTENSIFIES NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY. IT BECOMES A LARGE CIRCULATION
FRIDAY TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.  WARMER HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS TO
OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOR THE 930 AM UPDATE...THE CURRENT FORECAST SEEMS PRETTY MUCH ON
TRACK SO NO BIG CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE FORECAST GRIDS FOR
TODAY. OCEAN WATER TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE 40S AND THERE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT OF AN ONSHORE BREEZE TODAY SO MAX TEMPS NEAR THE SHORE
WERE LOWERED A BIT. OTHERWISE...MAX TEMPS TODAY SHOULD BE 5 TO 10
DEG F WARMER THAN YDAY...ESPECIALLY FROM PHL SWD WHERE CLOUDS ARE
CLEARING OUT AND A MOSTLY SUNNY AFTN IS EXPECTED. LIGHT NLY WINDS
WILL PREVAIL IN THE RELATIVELY WEAK PRES GRAD BETWEEN THE OFFSHORE
LOW AND HIGH PRES RIDGE OVER THE MS VLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NC COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY TO THE
EAST WHILE HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALY BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A DRY
DAY IS EXPECTED WITH VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. THERE WILL STILL
BE SOME CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH
THIS MORNING AND THEN IT SHOULD BECOME SUNNY THERE LATER. SOME
DAYTIME CU WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
WILL BE MOSTLY N OR NE AT 5 TO 10 MPH. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL...BUT MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S OR LOW 60S...SO
OVERALL QUITE PLEASANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN TO THE
WEST WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
OVERALL...SKY CONDITIONS WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH
AND LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM THE
NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: COLDER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS PREVAIL HERE MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR NOVA SCOTIA, DOMINATING THE FLOW HERE THROUGH TUESDAY.
THEN A POTENTIALLY COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS MAY YIELD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW NEAR LONG ISLAND BY
FRIDAY. RIDGING FOLLOWS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY, MAYBE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY, WITH A DEFINITE WARMING TREND TO FOLLOW NEXT
WEEKEND!

THE 12/25 NAEFS SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE HAS NOTHING EXTREME FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA THE NEXT 6 DAYS.

HAZARDS THIS 6 DAY PERIOD: FIRE WEATHER IS THE MOST LIKELY CONSIDERATION
PRIOR TO NEXT WEEKEND.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/26 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY-TUESDAY, 00Z/26 MEX MOS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN THE 0521Z/26 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP,
12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY.


THE DAILIES...

MONDAY...BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 MPH DURING THE DAY,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY WITH
SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS, MAINLY THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY DAY,  PROBABLY CLEARING AT NIGHT.  NNW WIND
GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE DAY, DIMINISHING AT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LIGHT WEST WIND.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
EXCEPT BELOW AVERAGE ON THE SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS MENTIONED IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER AS THE WESTERN LOBE OF THE THE ATLANTIC TROUGH ROTATES SEWD
OVERHEAD AND TRIES TO FORM A CLOSED LOW. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE DAY, POSSIBLY HIGHER COAST. CONFIDENCE:
BELOW AVERAGE.

A CAVEAT FOR THURSDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE INTERACTION OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES MAY YET RESULT IN A
STRONG RAINY GALE FOR OUR COAST THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. NORTHWEST WIND. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE. 00Z/26 GFS MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS EXPECTED TODAY AT ALL TAF SITES WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.
LIGHT NNE WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO NNW THIS
AFTERNOON. SOMEWHAT GUSTY NE WINDS HAVE BEEN REPORTED AT PHL THIS
MORNING...THIS SEEMS TO BE A LOCAL EFFECT AND SHOULD DIMINISH THIS
AFTERNOON.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
GOOD FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION BEFORE MOVING EAST. CLOUDS ARE OF THE
MID VARIETY ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ WITH HIGH CLOUDS FATHER
NORTH. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT NW/W AND THEY WILL TURN NE AFTER
SUNRISE. LATER TODAY...A CONTINUATION OF VFR WITH DAYTIME CU SCT
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS MOSTLY NE 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TONIGHT...VFR
(MOSTLY CLEAR) WITH NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY DAYLIGHT HOURS.
NW WIND GUSTY 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NNW WIND GUSTY 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER. LIGHT WEST WIND. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER, MAINLY DAYLIGHT
HOURS. N-NE WIND GUSTY 20 KT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF THE DEVELOPING OCEAN GALE
COMING CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN NOW GENERALLY EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT A BAD DAY TO BE OUT ON THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE GENTLE
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL MOSTLY NE
TODAY AND THEN TURN MORE NWRLY TONIGHT. WINDS SPEEDS MOSTLY UNDER 10
KNOTS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MOSTLY AROUND 2 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND ON THE BAY 1 TO 2 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS FAR S
BEFORE DAWN TODAY...THEN DRY THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE IT WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE WITH NW WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ALONG THE NEAREST MILE OF THE COAST BUT LESS WIND
ONCE AWAY FROM THE DOCK. NO SCA HAZARD YET. CONFIDENCE FOR A
NEARSHORE SCA IS ABOVE AVERAGE BUT NOT YET CATEGORICAL.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NW
WIND TUESDAY GUST TO 20 KT AND THEN A LIGHT WIND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY APPEARS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL PROBABLY EXCEED 5 FEET
OFF NJ AND 7 FEET EAST OF DELAWARE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
GALE FORCE GUSTS AND 13 FEET SEAS. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SIZE, STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
NEWD MOVING COASTAL CAROLINA LOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY FUELS AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH`S OF 25 TO 35 PCT MAY NECESSITATE
STATEMENTS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER SOMETIME BETWEEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE
CLOSE TO THE NEEDED CRITERIA OR JUST BELOW. RH`S ARE MARGINAL.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 260801
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
401 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA
TODAY AND MERGE INTO A LARGE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA EARLY THIS WEEK. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY
MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST WEDNESDAY THEN
INTENSIFIES NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY. IT BECOMES A LARGE CIRCULATION
FRIDAY TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.  WARMER HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS TO
OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
THEN IT SHOULD BECOME SUNNY THERE LATER. SOME DAYTIME CU WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY N
OR NE AT 5 TO 10 MPH. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S OR LOW 60S...SO OVERALL QUITE
PLEASANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN TO THE
WEST WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
OVERALL...SKY CONDITIONS WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH
AND LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM THE
NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: COLDER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS PREVAIL HERE MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR NOVA SCOTIA, DOMINATING THE FLOW HERE THROUGH TUESDAY.
THEN A POTENTIALLY COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS MAY YIELD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW NEAR LONG ISLAND BY
FRIDAY. RIDGING FOLLOWS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY, MAYBE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY, WITH A DEFINITE WARMING TREND TO FOLLOW NEXT
WEEKEND!

THE 12/25 NAEFS SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE HAS NOTHING EXTREME FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA THE NEXT 6 DAYS.

HAZARDS THIS 6 DAY PERIOD: FIRE WEATHER IS THE MOST LIKELY CONSIDERATION
PRIOR TO NEXT WEEKEND.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/26 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY-TUESDAY, 00Z/26 MEX MOS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN THE 0521Z/26 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP,
12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY.


THE DAILIES...

MONDAY...BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 MPH DURING THE DAY,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY WITH
SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS, MAINLY THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY DAY,  PROBABLY CLEARING AT NIGHT.  NNW WIND
GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE DAY, DIMINISHING AT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LIGHT WEST WIND.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
EXCEPT BELOW AVERAGE ON THE SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS MENTIONED IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER AS THE WESTERN LOBE OF THE THE ATLANTIC TROUGH ROTATES SEWD
OVERHEAD AND TRIES TO FORM A CLOSED LOW. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE DAY, POSSIBLY HIGHER COAST. CONFIDENCE:
BELOW AVERAGE.

A CAVEAT FOR THURSDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE INTERACTION OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES MAY YET RESULT IN A
STRONG RAINY GALE FOR OUR COAST THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. NORTHWEST WIND. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE. 00Z/26 GFS MOS GUIDANCE.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GOOD FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION BEFORE MOVING EAST. CLOUDS ARE OF THE
MID VARIETY ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ WITH HIGH CLOUDS FATHER
NORTH. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT NW/W AND THEY WILL TURN NE AFTER
SUNRISE. LATER TODAY...A CONTINUATION OF VFR WITH DAYTIME CU SCT
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS MOSTLY NE 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TONIGHT...VFR
(MOSTLY CLEAR) WITH NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY DAYLIGHT HOURS.
NW WIND GUSTY 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NNW WIND GUSTY 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER. LIGHT WEST WIND. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER, MAINLY DAYLIGHT
HOURS. N-NE WIND GUSTY 20 KT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF THE DEVELOPING OCEAN GALE
COMING CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN NOW GENERALLY EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT A BAD DAY TO BE OUT ON THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE GENTLE
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL MOSTLY NE
TODAY AND THEN TURN MORE NWRLY TONIGHT. WINDS SPEEDS MOSTLY UNDER 10
KNOTS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MOSTLY AROUND 2 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND ON THE BAY 1 TO 2 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS FAR S
BEFORE DAWN TODAY...THEN DRY THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE IT WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE WITH NW WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ALONG THE NEAREST MILE OF THE COAST BUT LESS WIND
ONCE AWAY FROM THE DOCK. NO SCA HAZARD YET. CONFIDENCE FOR A
NEARSHORE SCA IS ABOVE AVERAGE BUT NOT YET CATEGORICAL.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NW
WIND TUESDAY GUST TO 20 KT AND THEN A LIGHT WIND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY APPEARS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL PROBABLY EXCEED 5 FEET
OFF NJ AND 7 FEET EAST OF DELAWARE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
GALE FORCE GUSTS AND 13 FEET SEAS. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SIZE, STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
NEWD MOVING COASTAL CAROLINA LOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY FUELS AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH`S OF 25 TO 35 PCT MAY NECESSITATE
STATEMENTS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER SOMETIME BETWEEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE
CLOSE TO THE NEEDED CRITERIA OR JUST BELOW. RH`S ARE MARGINAL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RER LOWS YESTERDAY 4/25/15 FOR KILG KACY KRDG KABE AND THAT
INFORMATION WAS POSTED YESTERDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ061-062-105.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 4A
NEAR TERM...O`HARA 4A
SHORT TERM...O`HARA 4A
LONG TERM...DRAG 4A
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 4A
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 4A
FIRE WEATHER...4A
CLIMATE...4A




000
FXUS61 KPHI 260801
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
401 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA
TODAY AND MERGE INTO A LARGE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA EARLY THIS WEEK. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY
MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST WEDNESDAY THEN
INTENSIFIES NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY. IT BECOMES A LARGE CIRCULATION
FRIDAY TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.  WARMER HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS TO
OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
THEN IT SHOULD BECOME SUNNY THERE LATER. SOME DAYTIME CU WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY N
OR NE AT 5 TO 10 MPH. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S OR LOW 60S...SO OVERALL QUITE
PLEASANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN TO THE
WEST WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
OVERALL...SKY CONDITIONS WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH
AND LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM THE
NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: COLDER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS PREVAIL HERE MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR NOVA SCOTIA, DOMINATING THE FLOW HERE THROUGH TUESDAY.
THEN A POTENTIALLY COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS MAY YIELD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW NEAR LONG ISLAND BY
FRIDAY. RIDGING FOLLOWS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY, MAYBE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY, WITH A DEFINITE WARMING TREND TO FOLLOW NEXT
WEEKEND!

THE 12/25 NAEFS SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE HAS NOTHING EXTREME FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA THE NEXT 6 DAYS.

HAZARDS THIS 6 DAY PERIOD: FIRE WEATHER IS THE MOST LIKELY CONSIDERATION
PRIOR TO NEXT WEEKEND.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/26 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY-TUESDAY, 00Z/26 MEX MOS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN THE 0521Z/26 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP,
12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY.


THE DAILIES...

MONDAY...BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 MPH DURING THE DAY,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY WITH
SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS, MAINLY THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY DAY,  PROBABLY CLEARING AT NIGHT.  NNW WIND
GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE DAY, DIMINISHING AT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LIGHT WEST WIND.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
EXCEPT BELOW AVERAGE ON THE SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS MENTIONED IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER AS THE WESTERN LOBE OF THE THE ATLANTIC TROUGH ROTATES SEWD
OVERHEAD AND TRIES TO FORM A CLOSED LOW. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE DAY, POSSIBLY HIGHER COAST. CONFIDENCE:
BELOW AVERAGE.

A CAVEAT FOR THURSDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE INTERACTION OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES MAY YET RESULT IN A
STRONG RAINY GALE FOR OUR COAST THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. NORTHWEST WIND. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE. 00Z/26 GFS MOS GUIDANCE.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GOOD FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION BEFORE MOVING EAST. CLOUDS ARE OF THE
MID VARIETY ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ WITH HIGH CLOUDS FATHER
NORTH. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT NW/W AND THEY WILL TURN NE AFTER
SUNRISE. LATER TODAY...A CONTINUATION OF VFR WITH DAYTIME CU SCT
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS MOSTLY NE 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TONIGHT...VFR
(MOSTLY CLEAR) WITH NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY DAYLIGHT HOURS.
NW WIND GUSTY 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NNW WIND GUSTY 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER. LIGHT WEST WIND. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER, MAINLY DAYLIGHT
HOURS. N-NE WIND GUSTY 20 KT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF THE DEVELOPING OCEAN GALE
COMING CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN NOW GENERALLY EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT A BAD DAY TO BE OUT ON THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE GENTLE
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL MOSTLY NE
TODAY AND THEN TURN MORE NWRLY TONIGHT. WINDS SPEEDS MOSTLY UNDER 10
KNOTS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MOSTLY AROUND 2 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND ON THE BAY 1 TO 2 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS FAR S
BEFORE DAWN TODAY...THEN DRY THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE IT WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE WITH NW WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ALONG THE NEAREST MILE OF THE COAST BUT LESS WIND
ONCE AWAY FROM THE DOCK. NO SCA HAZARD YET. CONFIDENCE FOR A
NEARSHORE SCA IS ABOVE AVERAGE BUT NOT YET CATEGORICAL.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NW
WIND TUESDAY GUST TO 20 KT AND THEN A LIGHT WIND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY APPEARS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL PROBABLY EXCEED 5 FEET
OFF NJ AND 7 FEET EAST OF DELAWARE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
GALE FORCE GUSTS AND 13 FEET SEAS. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SIZE, STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
NEWD MOVING COASTAL CAROLINA LOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY FUELS AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH`S OF 25 TO 35 PCT MAY NECESSITATE
STATEMENTS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER SOMETIME BETWEEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE
CLOSE TO THE NEEDED CRITERIA OR JUST BELOW. RH`S ARE MARGINAL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RER LOWS YESTERDAY 4/25/15 FOR KILG KACY KRDG KABE AND THAT
INFORMATION WAS POSTED YESTERDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ061-062-105.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 4A
NEAR TERM...O`HARA 4A
SHORT TERM...O`HARA 4A
LONG TERM...DRAG 4A
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 4A
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 4A
FIRE WEATHER...4A
CLIMATE...4A



000
FXUS61 KPHI 260801
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
401 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA
TODAY AND MERGE INTO A LARGE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA EARLY THIS WEEK. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY
MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST WEDNESDAY THEN
INTENSIFIES NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY. IT BECOMES A LARGE CIRCULATION
FRIDAY TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.  WARMER HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS TO
OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
THEN IT SHOULD BECOME SUNNY THERE LATER. SOME DAYTIME CU WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY N
OR NE AT 5 TO 10 MPH. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S OR LOW 60S...SO OVERALL QUITE
PLEASANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN TO THE
WEST WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
OVERALL...SKY CONDITIONS WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH
AND LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM THE
NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: COLDER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS PREVAIL HERE MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR NOVA SCOTIA, DOMINATING THE FLOW HERE THROUGH TUESDAY.
THEN A POTENTIALLY COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS MAY YIELD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW NEAR LONG ISLAND BY
FRIDAY. RIDGING FOLLOWS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY, MAYBE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY, WITH A DEFINITE WARMING TREND TO FOLLOW NEXT
WEEKEND!

THE 12/25 NAEFS SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE HAS NOTHING EXTREME FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA THE NEXT 6 DAYS.

HAZARDS THIS 6 DAY PERIOD: FIRE WEATHER IS THE MOST LIKELY CONSIDERATION
PRIOR TO NEXT WEEKEND.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/26 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY-TUESDAY, 00Z/26 MEX MOS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN THE 0521Z/26 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP,
12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY.


THE DAILIES...

MONDAY...BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 MPH DURING THE DAY,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY WITH
SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS, MAINLY THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY DAY,  PROBABLY CLEARING AT NIGHT.  NNW WIND
GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE DAY, DIMINISHING AT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LIGHT WEST WIND.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
EXCEPT BELOW AVERAGE ON THE SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS MENTIONED IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER AS THE WESTERN LOBE OF THE THE ATLANTIC TROUGH ROTATES SEWD
OVERHEAD AND TRIES TO FORM A CLOSED LOW. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE DAY, POSSIBLY HIGHER COAST. CONFIDENCE:
BELOW AVERAGE.

A CAVEAT FOR THURSDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE INTERACTION OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES MAY YET RESULT IN A
STRONG RAINY GALE FOR OUR COAST THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. NORTHWEST WIND. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE. 00Z/26 GFS MOS GUIDANCE.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GOOD FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION BEFORE MOVING EAST. CLOUDS ARE OF THE
MID VARIETY ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ WITH HIGH CLOUDS FATHER
NORTH. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT NW/W AND THEY WILL TURN NE AFTER
SUNRISE. LATER TODAY...A CONTINUATION OF VFR WITH DAYTIME CU SCT
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS MOSTLY NE 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TONIGHT...VFR
(MOSTLY CLEAR) WITH NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY DAYLIGHT HOURS.
NW WIND GUSTY 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NNW WIND GUSTY 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER. LIGHT WEST WIND. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER, MAINLY DAYLIGHT
HOURS. N-NE WIND GUSTY 20 KT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF THE DEVELOPING OCEAN GALE
COMING CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN NOW GENERALLY EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT A BAD DAY TO BE OUT ON THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE GENTLE
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL MOSTLY NE
TODAY AND THEN TURN MORE NWRLY TONIGHT. WINDS SPEEDS MOSTLY UNDER 10
KNOTS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MOSTLY AROUND 2 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND ON THE BAY 1 TO 2 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS FAR S
BEFORE DAWN TODAY...THEN DRY THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE IT WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE WITH NW WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ALONG THE NEAREST MILE OF THE COAST BUT LESS WIND
ONCE AWAY FROM THE DOCK. NO SCA HAZARD YET. CONFIDENCE FOR A
NEARSHORE SCA IS ABOVE AVERAGE BUT NOT YET CATEGORICAL.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NW
WIND TUESDAY GUST TO 20 KT AND THEN A LIGHT WIND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY APPEARS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL PROBABLY EXCEED 5 FEET
OFF NJ AND 7 FEET EAST OF DELAWARE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
GALE FORCE GUSTS AND 13 FEET SEAS. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SIZE, STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
NEWD MOVING COASTAL CAROLINA LOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY FUELS AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH`S OF 25 TO 35 PCT MAY NECESSITATE
STATEMENTS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER SOMETIME BETWEEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE
CLOSE TO THE NEEDED CRITERIA OR JUST BELOW. RH`S ARE MARGINAL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RER LOWS YESTERDAY 4/25/15 FOR KILG KACY KRDG KABE AND THAT
INFORMATION WAS POSTED YESTERDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ061-062-105.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 4A
NEAR TERM...O`HARA 4A
SHORT TERM...O`HARA 4A
LONG TERM...DRAG 4A
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 4A
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 4A
FIRE WEATHER...4A
CLIMATE...4A



000
FXUS61 KPHI 260801
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
401 AM EDT SUN APR 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA
TODAY AND MERGE INTO A LARGE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION NEAR NOVA
SCOTIA EARLY THIS WEEK. LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST TUESDAY
MOVES TO THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES COAST WEDNESDAY THEN
INTENSIFIES NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY. IT BECOMES A LARGE CIRCULATION
FRIDAY TO THE EAST OF NEW ENGLAND.  WARMER HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS TO
OUR SOUTH NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO PULL AWAY WHILE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. A DRY DAY IS EXPECTED WITH
VARYING AMOUNTS OF CLOUDS. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE OFFSHORE LOW ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND
THEN IT SHOULD BECOME SUNNY THERE LATER. SOME DAYTIME CU WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY N
OR NE AT 5 TO 10 MPH. HIGH TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL...BUT MOSTLY IN THE UPPER 50S OR LOW 60S...SO OVERALL QUITE
PLEASANT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM MONDAY/...
THE FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN TO THE
WEST WHILE AN UPPER TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTH.
OVERALL...SKY CONDITIONS WILL AVERAGE PARTLY CLOUDY. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MILDER THAN THIS MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH
AND LOW TO MID 40S ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT...MOSTLY FROM THE
NW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
500 MB: COLDER THAN NORMAL HEIGHTS PREVAIL HERE MOST OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD WITH A LARGE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IN THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC NEAR NOVA SCOTIA, DOMINATING THE FLOW HERE THROUGH TUESDAY.
THEN A POTENTIALLY COMPLEX INTERACTION BETWEEN THE NORTHERN AND
SOUTHERN STREAMS MAY YIELD ANOTHER CLOSED LOW NEAR LONG ISLAND BY
FRIDAY. RIDGING FOLLOWS NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES AROUND 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
MONDAY, MAYBE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL
WEDNESDAY - FRIDAY, WITH A DEFINITE WARMING TREND TO FOLLOW NEXT
WEEKEND!

THE 12/25 NAEFS SITUATIONAL AWARENESS TABLE HAS NOTHING EXTREME FOR
OUR FORECAST AREA THE NEXT 6 DAYS.

HAZARDS THIS 6 DAY PERIOD: FIRE WEATHER IS THE MOST LIKELY CONSIDERATION
PRIOR TO NEXT WEEKEND.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, A 50 50 BLEND 00Z/26 GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE MONDAY-TUESDAY, 00Z/26 MEX MOS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN THE 0521Z/26 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP,
12 HOUR POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT-SKY-WIND FROM THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
SATURDAY.


THE DAILIES...

MONDAY...BREEZY WITH NORTHWEST GUSTING 20-30 MPH DURING THE DAY,
DIMINISHING AT NIGHT. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS DURING THE DAY WITH
SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS, MAINLY THE DAYLIGHT HOURS.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...PARTLY SUNNY DAY,  PROBABLY CLEARING AT NIGHT.  NNW WIND
GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE DAY, DIMINISHING AT NIGHT. CONFIDENCE:
ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. LIGHT WEST WIND.  CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE
EXCEPT BELOW AVERAGE ON THE SMALL CHANCE OF SHOWERS MENTIONED IN
THE AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS WITH CHANCE OF A SPRINKLE OR
SHOWER AS THE WESTERN LOBE OF THE THE ATLANTIC TROUGH ROTATES SEWD
OVERHEAD AND TRIES TO FORM A CLOSED LOW. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND
GUSTING TO 20 MPH DURING THE DAY, POSSIBLY HIGHER COAST. CONFIDENCE:
BELOW AVERAGE.

A CAVEAT FOR THURSDAY...THERE IS A CHANCE THAT THE INTERACTION OF
THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVES MAY YET RESULT IN A
STRONG RAINY GALE FOR OUR COAST THURSDAY.

FRIDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLEAR. NORTHWEST WIND GUSTING 20 TO 25 MPH.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. NORTHWEST WIND. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE
AVERAGE. 00Z/26 GFS MOS GUIDANCE.


&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GOOD FLYING WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS MOVING WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA WHILE WEAK
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN ACROSS OUR AREA. CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW
WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION BEFORE MOVING EAST. CLOUDS ARE OF THE
MID VARIETY ACROSS THE DELMARVA AND SRN NJ WITH HIGH CLOUDS FATHER
NORTH. WINDS ARE MOSTLY LIGHT NW/W AND THEY WILL TURN NE AFTER
SUNRISE. LATER TODAY...A CONTINUATION OF VFR WITH DAYTIME CU SCT
ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS MOSTLY NE 5 TO 10 KNOTS. TONIGHT...VFR
(MOSTLY CLEAR) WITH NW WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CIGS WITH SCT SHOWERS, MAINLY DAYLIGHT HOURS.
NW WIND GUSTY 20-25 KT DURING THE DAY DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT.  NNW WIND GUSTY 20 KT.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...VFR WITH SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. SMALL CHANCE OF AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER. LIGHT WEST WIND. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...VFR CIGS WITH A CHANCE OF A SHOWER, MAINLY DAYLIGHT
HOURS. N-NE WIND GUSTY 20 KT. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE. UNCERTAINTY
EXISTS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL OF THE DEVELOPING OCEAN GALE
COMING CLOSER TO THE COAST THAN NOW GENERALLY EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
NOT A BAD DAY TO BE OUT ON THE WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL BE GENTLE
WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE WATERS. WINDS WILL MOSTLY NE
TODAY AND THEN TURN MORE NWRLY TONIGHT. WINDS SPEEDS MOSTLY UNDER 10
KNOTS. SEAS ON THE OCEAN MOSTLY AROUND 2 FT TODAY AND TONIGHT
AND ON THE BAY 1 TO 2 FT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW SHOWERS FAR S
BEFORE DAWN TODAY...THEN DRY THE REST OF TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY...SCA MAY BE NEEDED FOR THE NEARSHORE WATERS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE IT WILL BE MORE UNSTABLE WITH NW WIND
GUSTS NEAR 25 KT ALONG THE NEAREST MILE OF THE COAST BUT LESS WIND
ONCE AWAY FROM THE DOCK. NO SCA HAZARD YET. CONFIDENCE FOR A
NEARSHORE SCA IS ABOVE AVERAGE BUT NOT YET CATEGORICAL.

TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED. NW
WIND TUESDAY GUST TO 20 KT AND THEN A LIGHT WIND WEDNESDAY.
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY APPEARS LIKELY, ESPECIALLY THE
ATLANTIC WATERS WHERE HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL PROBABLY EXCEED 5 FEET
OFF NJ AND 7 FEET EAST OF DELAWARE. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF
GALE FORCE GUSTS AND 13 FEET SEAS. CONFIDENCE: BELOW AVERAGE DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE SIZE, STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE
NEWD MOVING COASTAL CAROLINA LOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY FUELS AND MINIMUM AFTERNOON RH`S OF 25 TO 35 PCT MAY NECESSITATE
STATEMENTS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER SOMETIME BETWEEN THIS
AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS TODAY AND TUESDAY WILL BE
CLOSE TO THE NEEDED CRITERIA OR JUST BELOW. RH`S ARE MARGINAL.

&&

.CLIMATE...
RER LOWS YESTERDAY 4/25/15 FOR KILG KACY KRDG KABE AND THAT
INFORMATION WAS POSTED YESTERDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ061-062-105.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 4A
NEAR TERM...O`HARA 4A
SHORT TERM...O`HARA 4A
LONG TERM...DRAG 4A
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 4A
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 4A
FIRE WEATHER...4A
CLIMATE...4A




000
FXUS61 KPHI 260138
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST,
PASSING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD GRADUALLY INTO OUR REGION DURING THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE
OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS
THROUGH OUR REGION AT THAT TIME, THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WILL TRACK EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST BENDS BACK INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY WHERE AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED. THIS FEATURE IS TENDING
TO SHEAR SOME EASTWARD, HOWEVER THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF PVA TO
PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC. THE ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE SHORT
WAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GENERATING AN AREA
OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. THIS IS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN
MARYLAND AND DELAWARE ZONES. THERE IS DRIER AIR FARTHER NORTH AND
WITH SOME CONFLUENCE THE RAIN IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME EDGING
NORTHWARD. IT DOES APPEAR IT COULD LIFT A BIT FARTHER NORTH PER THE
RAP, HRRR AND NAM, BUT PROBABLY NOT AS FAR NORTH AS THE GFS/ECMWF
SHOW. THE POPS WERE ADJUSTED SOME AND WE MAINTAINED A NARROW AREA OF
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN DELMARVA AREA. THE DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR EARLIER MAY HAVE RESULTED IN SOME ICE PELLETS AT THE
ONSET.

OTHERWISE, MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF THE LIGHT RAIN SHIELD. IT IS UP NORTH WHERE THE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST AND NOT AS THICK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
POSSIBLY FALL A LITTLE FASTER WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FROST TO FORM LATE, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 78. A
FROST ADVISORY THEREFORE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE
ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND
THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL ADVANCE FARTHER
EAST AND OUT TO SEA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THROUGH THE
MORNING, THOUGH, THICKER CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
WILL REMAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN EXPECT MORE OF A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY
WITH SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW LATE APRIL AVERAGES, MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MOSTLY THE LOWER TO PERHAPS
MIDDLE 60S, WITH SOME COOLER 50S ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S RANGE IN
MUCH OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. SOME LOCATIONS IN
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH PATCHY
FROST POSSIBLE.

WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF NOVA
SCOTIA DURING THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A
MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDS TO OUR
REGION FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO, THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BEING THAT THE AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
QUITE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF EVAPORATION IS LIKELY.

A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. THE RIDGE SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH DAYS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE DRY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE MID LEVEL
LOW THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. ALSO, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH A COASTAL LOW PASSING
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH
MOST OF ITS IMPACT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WE SHOULD BE
INFLUENCED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
AND WE WILL MENTION SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THAT
PERIOD OF TIME.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST AND DRY WEATHER ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN THE NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAY PASS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY.
IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WE ARE
EXPECTING NO MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND THEY MAY GO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CEILING AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET /LOWEST
SOUTH/. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 8 KNOTS TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY NEAR KMIV AND KACY OVERNIGHT FOR A TIME.

SUNDAY...VFR. SOME CLOUD BASES /SCATTERED/ DEVELOPING AT 5000 FEET,
AND A CEILING AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET FOR SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY IN
THE MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING
NORTHWEST TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
FOR DELAWARE BAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY, BUT
OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS FOR
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, LITTLE IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...A NORTHWEST WIND MAY GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ061-062-105.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO/KLINE



000
FXUS61 KPHI 260138
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST,
PASSING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD GRADUALLY INTO OUR REGION DURING THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE
OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS
THROUGH OUR REGION AT THAT TIME, THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WILL TRACK EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST BENDS BACK INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY WHERE AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED. THIS FEATURE IS TENDING
TO SHEAR SOME EASTWARD, HOWEVER THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF PVA TO
PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC. THE ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE SHORT
WAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GENERATING AN AREA
OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. THIS IS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN
MARYLAND AND DELAWARE ZONES. THERE IS DRIER AIR FARTHER NORTH AND
WITH SOME CONFLUENCE THE RAIN IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME EDGING
NORTHWARD. IT DOES APPEAR IT COULD LIFT A BIT FARTHER NORTH PER THE
RAP, HRRR AND NAM, BUT PROBABLY NOT AS FAR NORTH AS THE GFS/ECMWF
SHOW. THE POPS WERE ADJUSTED SOME AND WE MAINTAINED A NARROW AREA OF
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN DELMARVA AREA. THE DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR EARLIER MAY HAVE RESULTED IN SOME ICE PELLETS AT THE
ONSET.

OTHERWISE, MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF THE LIGHT RAIN SHIELD. IT IS UP NORTH WHERE THE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST AND NOT AS THICK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
POSSIBLY FALL A LITTLE FASTER WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FROST TO FORM LATE, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 78. A
FROST ADVISORY THEREFORE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE
ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND
THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL ADVANCE FARTHER
EAST AND OUT TO SEA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THROUGH THE
MORNING, THOUGH, THICKER CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
WILL REMAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN EXPECT MORE OF A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY
WITH SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW LATE APRIL AVERAGES, MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MOSTLY THE LOWER TO PERHAPS
MIDDLE 60S, WITH SOME COOLER 50S ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S RANGE IN
MUCH OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. SOME LOCATIONS IN
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH PATCHY
FROST POSSIBLE.

WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF NOVA
SCOTIA DURING THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A
MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDS TO OUR
REGION FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO, THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BEING THAT THE AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
QUITE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF EVAPORATION IS LIKELY.

A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. THE RIDGE SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH DAYS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE DRY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE MID LEVEL
LOW THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. ALSO, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH A COASTAL LOW PASSING
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH
MOST OF ITS IMPACT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WE SHOULD BE
INFLUENCED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
AND WE WILL MENTION SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THAT
PERIOD OF TIME.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST AND DRY WEATHER ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN THE NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAY PASS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY.
IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WE ARE
EXPECTING NO MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND THEY MAY GO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CEILING AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET /LOWEST
SOUTH/. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 8 KNOTS TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY NEAR KMIV AND KACY OVERNIGHT FOR A TIME.

SUNDAY...VFR. SOME CLOUD BASES /SCATTERED/ DEVELOPING AT 5000 FEET,
AND A CEILING AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET FOR SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY IN
THE MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING
NORTHWEST TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
FOR DELAWARE BAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY, BUT
OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS FOR
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, LITTLE IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...A NORTHWEST WIND MAY GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ061-062-105.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO/KLINE



000
FXUS61 KPHI 260138
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST,
PASSING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD GRADUALLY INTO OUR REGION DURING THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE
OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS
THROUGH OUR REGION AT THAT TIME, THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WILL TRACK EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST BENDS BACK INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY WHERE AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED. THIS FEATURE IS TENDING
TO SHEAR SOME EASTWARD, HOWEVER THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF PVA TO
PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC. THE ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE SHORT
WAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GENERATING AN AREA
OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. THIS IS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN
MARYLAND AND DELAWARE ZONES. THERE IS DRIER AIR FARTHER NORTH AND
WITH SOME CONFLUENCE THE RAIN IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME EDGING
NORTHWARD. IT DOES APPEAR IT COULD LIFT A BIT FARTHER NORTH PER THE
RAP, HRRR AND NAM, BUT PROBABLY NOT AS FAR NORTH AS THE GFS/ECMWF
SHOW. THE POPS WERE ADJUSTED SOME AND WE MAINTAINED A NARROW AREA OF
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN DELMARVA AREA. THE DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR EARLIER MAY HAVE RESULTED IN SOME ICE PELLETS AT THE
ONSET.

OTHERWISE, MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF THE LIGHT RAIN SHIELD. IT IS UP NORTH WHERE THE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST AND NOT AS THICK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
POSSIBLY FALL A LITTLE FASTER WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FROST TO FORM LATE, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 78. A
FROST ADVISORY THEREFORE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE
ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND
THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL ADVANCE FARTHER
EAST AND OUT TO SEA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THROUGH THE
MORNING, THOUGH, THICKER CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
WILL REMAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN EXPECT MORE OF A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY
WITH SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW LATE APRIL AVERAGES, MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MOSTLY THE LOWER TO PERHAPS
MIDDLE 60S, WITH SOME COOLER 50S ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S RANGE IN
MUCH OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. SOME LOCATIONS IN
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH PATCHY
FROST POSSIBLE.

WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF NOVA
SCOTIA DURING THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A
MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDS TO OUR
REGION FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO, THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BEING THAT THE AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
QUITE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF EVAPORATION IS LIKELY.

A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. THE RIDGE SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH DAYS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE DRY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE MID LEVEL
LOW THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. ALSO, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH A COASTAL LOW PASSING
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH
MOST OF ITS IMPACT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WE SHOULD BE
INFLUENCED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
AND WE WILL MENTION SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THAT
PERIOD OF TIME.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST AND DRY WEATHER ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN THE NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAY PASS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY.
IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WE ARE
EXPECTING NO MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND THEY MAY GO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CEILING AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET /LOWEST
SOUTH/. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 8 KNOTS TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY NEAR KMIV AND KACY OVERNIGHT FOR A TIME.

SUNDAY...VFR. SOME CLOUD BASES /SCATTERED/ DEVELOPING AT 5000 FEET,
AND A CEILING AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET FOR SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY IN
THE MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING
NORTHWEST TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
FOR DELAWARE BAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY, BUT
OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS FOR
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, LITTLE IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...A NORTHWEST WIND MAY GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ061-062-105.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO/KLINE



000
FXUS61 KPHI 260138
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST,
PASSING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD GRADUALLY INTO OUR REGION DURING THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE
OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS
THROUGH OUR REGION AT THAT TIME, THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
LOW PRESSURE OVER KENTUCKY THIS EVENING WILL TRACK EASTWARD
OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STALLED WELL TO OUR
SOUTH. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IN THE NORTHEAST BENDS BACK INTO THE
OHIO VALLEY WHERE AN UPPER LOW IS LOCATED. THIS FEATURE IS TENDING
TO SHEAR SOME EASTWARD, HOWEVER THERE IS A DECENT AMOUNT OF PVA TO
PORTIONS OF THE MID ATLANTIC. THE ASSOCIATED LIFT WITH THE SHORT
WAVE ENERGY COMBINED WITH WAA/ISENTROPIC LIFT IS GENERATING AN AREA
OF MAINLY LIGHT RAIN. THIS IS MOVING ACROSS PORTIONS OF OUR EASTERN
MARYLAND AND DELAWARE ZONES. THERE IS DRIER AIR FARTHER NORTH AND
WITH SOME CONFLUENCE THE RAIN IS HAVING A TOUGH TIME EDGING
NORTHWARD. IT DOES APPEAR IT COULD LIFT A BIT FARTHER NORTH PER THE
RAP, HRRR AND NAM, BUT PROBABLY NOT AS FAR NORTH AS THE GFS/ECMWF
SHOW. THE POPS WERE ADJUSTED SOME AND WE MAINTAINED A NARROW AREA OF
LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS OUR FAR SOUTHERN DELMARVA AREA. THE DRY
LOW-LEVEL AIR EARLIER MAY HAVE RESULTED IN SOME ICE PELLETS AT THE
ONSET.

OTHERWISE, MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL STREAM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
NORTH OF THE LIGHT RAIN SHIELD. IT IS UP NORTH WHERE THE CLOUDINESS
SHOULD BE THE HIGHEST AND NOT AS THICK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
POSSIBLY FALL A LITTLE FASTER WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME FROST TO FORM LATE, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 78. A
FROST ADVISORY THEREFORE REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE
ADJACENT AREAS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED WITH THE LATEST OBSERVATIONS, AND
THEN THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE WAS BLENDED IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL ADVANCE FARTHER
EAST AND OUT TO SEA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THROUGH THE
MORNING, THOUGH, THICKER CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
WILL REMAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN EXPECT MORE OF A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY
WITH SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW LATE APRIL AVERAGES, MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MOSTLY THE LOWER TO PERHAPS
MIDDLE 60S, WITH SOME COOLER 50S ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S RANGE IN
MUCH OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. SOME LOCATIONS IN
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH PATCHY
FROST POSSIBLE.

WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF NOVA
SCOTIA DURING THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A
MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDS TO OUR
REGION FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO, THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BEING THAT THE AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
QUITE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF EVAPORATION IS LIKELY.

A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. THE RIDGE SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH DAYS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE DRY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE MID LEVEL
LOW THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. ALSO, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH A COASTAL LOW PASSING
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH
MOST OF ITS IMPACT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WE SHOULD BE
INFLUENCED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
AND WE WILL MENTION SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THAT
PERIOD OF TIME.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST AND DRY WEATHER ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN THE NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAY PASS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY.
IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WE ARE
EXPECTING NO MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND THEY MAY GO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CEILING AT OR ABOVE 8000 FEET /LOWEST
SOUTH/. SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 KNOTS BECOMING MOSTLY LIGHT AND
VARIABLE, THEN BECOMING NORTHERLY 5 TO 8 KNOTS TOWARD DAYBREAK. SOME
LIGHT RAIN MAY NEAR KMIV AND KACY OVERNIGHT FOR A TIME.

SUNDAY...VFR. SOME CLOUD BASES /SCATTERED/ DEVELOPING AT 5000 FEET,
AND A CEILING AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET FOR SOME AREAS ESPECIALLY IN
THE MORNING. NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS MAINLY 5-10 KNOTS, BECOMING
NORTHWEST TOWARD LATE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
FOR DELAWARE BAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY, BUT
OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS FOR
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, LITTLE IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...A NORTHWEST WIND MAY GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ061-062-105.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...IOVINO/KLINE



000
FXUS61 KPHI 252234
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
634 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PROGRESS
TO THE EAST, PASSING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD GRADUALLY INTO OUR REGION DURING
THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE
OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION AT THAT TIME, THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE RATHER DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS INITIALLY COULD RESULT IN
ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE ONSET TO PRODUCE SOME ICE PELLETS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND BRIEF. THE POPS WERE INCREASED A
BIT FASTER EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

OTHERWISE, SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA, NAMELY THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA, AS AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND THEN
REDEVELOPS JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN EARLY MORNING
SUNDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH, IT`S ONLY THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT WILL AFFECT PARTS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA, MAINLY OUR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA ZONES,
WHERE WE DO HAVE SOME LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR RAIN THIS
EVENING TO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. WE HAVE ALSO
MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTENDING A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH, ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN NJ, WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF TONIGHT. IT`S UP NORTH WHERE THE
HIGH CLOUD COVER MAY NOT BE AS THICK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
POSSIBLY FALL OFF A LITTLE MORE EFFICIENTLY WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME FROST TO FORM, MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 78. WITH THIS IN MIND, A FROST ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NJ AND ADJACENT AREAS IN EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

WE MAINLY USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES, AND WE EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE MIDDLE 30S
TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL ADVANCE FARTHER
EAST AND OUT TO SEA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THROUGH THE
MORNING, THOUGH, THICKER CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
WILL REMAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN EXPECT MORE OF A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY
WITH SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW LATE APRIL AVERAGES, MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MOSTLY THE LOWER TO PERHAPS
MIDDLE 60S, WITH SOME COOLER 50S ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S RANGE IN
MUCH OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. SOME LOCATIONS IN
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH PATCHY
FROST POSSIBLE.

WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF NOVA
SCOTIA DURING THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A
MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDS TO OUR
REGION FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO, THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BEING THAT THE AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
QUITE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF EVAPORATION IS LIKELY.

A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. THE RIDGE SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH DAYS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE DRY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE MID LEVEL
LOW THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. ALSO, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH A COASTAL LOW PASSING
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH
MOST OF ITS IMPACT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WE SHOULD BE
INFLUENCED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
AND WE WILL MENTION SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THAT
PERIOD OF TIME.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST AND DRY WEATHER ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN THE NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAY PASS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY.
IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WE ARE
EXPECTING NO MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND THEY MAY GO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CEILING AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET AT TIMES. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS,
THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LEADING UP TO
DAYBREAK SUNDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND IN THE 5 TO 10
KNOT RANGE. SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE KMIV AND KACY
SITES IS POSSIBLE DURING TONIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAYTIME. NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
FOR DELAWARE BAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY, BUT
OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS FOR
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, LITTLE IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...A NORTHWEST WIND MAY GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ061-062-105.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/KLINE
MARINE...IOVINO/KLINE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 252234
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
634 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PROGRESS
TO THE EAST, PASSING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD GRADUALLY INTO OUR REGION DURING
THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE
OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION AT THAT TIME, THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE RATHER DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS INITIALLY COULD RESULT IN
ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE ONSET TO PRODUCE SOME ICE PELLETS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND BRIEF. THE POPS WERE INCREASED A
BIT FASTER EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

OTHERWISE, SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA, NAMELY THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA, AS AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND THEN
REDEVELOPS JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN EARLY MORNING
SUNDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH, IT`S ONLY THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT WILL AFFECT PARTS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA, MAINLY OUR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA ZONES,
WHERE WE DO HAVE SOME LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR RAIN THIS
EVENING TO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. WE HAVE ALSO
MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTENDING A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH, ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN NJ, WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF TONIGHT. IT`S UP NORTH WHERE THE
HIGH CLOUD COVER MAY NOT BE AS THICK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
POSSIBLY FALL OFF A LITTLE MORE EFFICIENTLY WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME FROST TO FORM, MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 78. WITH THIS IN MIND, A FROST ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NJ AND ADJACENT AREAS IN EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

WE MAINLY USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES, AND WE EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE MIDDLE 30S
TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL ADVANCE FARTHER
EAST AND OUT TO SEA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THROUGH THE
MORNING, THOUGH, THICKER CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
WILL REMAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN EXPECT MORE OF A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY
WITH SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW LATE APRIL AVERAGES, MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MOSTLY THE LOWER TO PERHAPS
MIDDLE 60S, WITH SOME COOLER 50S ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S RANGE IN
MUCH OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. SOME LOCATIONS IN
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH PATCHY
FROST POSSIBLE.

WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF NOVA
SCOTIA DURING THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A
MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDS TO OUR
REGION FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO, THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BEING THAT THE AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
QUITE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF EVAPORATION IS LIKELY.

A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. THE RIDGE SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH DAYS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE DRY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE MID LEVEL
LOW THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. ALSO, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH A COASTAL LOW PASSING
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH
MOST OF ITS IMPACT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WE SHOULD BE
INFLUENCED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
AND WE WILL MENTION SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THAT
PERIOD OF TIME.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST AND DRY WEATHER ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN THE NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAY PASS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY.
IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WE ARE
EXPECTING NO MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND THEY MAY GO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CEILING AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET AT TIMES. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS,
THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LEADING UP TO
DAYBREAK SUNDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND IN THE 5 TO 10
KNOT RANGE. SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE KMIV AND KACY
SITES IS POSSIBLE DURING TONIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAYTIME. NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
FOR DELAWARE BAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY, BUT
OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS FOR
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, LITTLE IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...A NORTHWEST WIND MAY GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ061-062-105.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/KLINE
MARINE...IOVINO/KLINE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 252234
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
634 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PROGRESS
TO THE EAST, PASSING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD GRADUALLY INTO OUR REGION DURING
THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE
OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION AT THAT TIME, THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE RATHER DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS INITIALLY COULD RESULT IN
ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE ONSET TO PRODUCE SOME ICE PELLETS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND BRIEF. THE POPS WERE INCREASED A
BIT FASTER EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

OTHERWISE, SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA, NAMELY THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA, AS AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND THEN
REDEVELOPS JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN EARLY MORNING
SUNDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH, IT`S ONLY THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT WILL AFFECT PARTS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA, MAINLY OUR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA ZONES,
WHERE WE DO HAVE SOME LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR RAIN THIS
EVENING TO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. WE HAVE ALSO
MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTENDING A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH, ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN NJ, WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF TONIGHT. IT`S UP NORTH WHERE THE
HIGH CLOUD COVER MAY NOT BE AS THICK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
POSSIBLY FALL OFF A LITTLE MORE EFFICIENTLY WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME FROST TO FORM, MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 78. WITH THIS IN MIND, A FROST ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NJ AND ADJACENT AREAS IN EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

WE MAINLY USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES, AND WE EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE MIDDLE 30S
TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL ADVANCE FARTHER
EAST AND OUT TO SEA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THROUGH THE
MORNING, THOUGH, THICKER CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
WILL REMAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN EXPECT MORE OF A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY
WITH SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW LATE APRIL AVERAGES, MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MOSTLY THE LOWER TO PERHAPS
MIDDLE 60S, WITH SOME COOLER 50S ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S RANGE IN
MUCH OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. SOME LOCATIONS IN
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH PATCHY
FROST POSSIBLE.

WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF NOVA
SCOTIA DURING THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A
MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDS TO OUR
REGION FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO, THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BEING THAT THE AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
QUITE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF EVAPORATION IS LIKELY.

A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. THE RIDGE SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH DAYS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE DRY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE MID LEVEL
LOW THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. ALSO, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH A COASTAL LOW PASSING
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH
MOST OF ITS IMPACT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WE SHOULD BE
INFLUENCED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
AND WE WILL MENTION SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THAT
PERIOD OF TIME.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST AND DRY WEATHER ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN THE NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAY PASS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY.
IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WE ARE
EXPECTING NO MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND THEY MAY GO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CEILING AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET AT TIMES. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS,
THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LEADING UP TO
DAYBREAK SUNDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND IN THE 5 TO 10
KNOT RANGE. SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE KMIV AND KACY
SITES IS POSSIBLE DURING TONIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAYTIME. NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
FOR DELAWARE BAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY, BUT
OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS FOR
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, LITTLE IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...A NORTHWEST WIND MAY GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ061-062-105.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/KLINE
MARINE...IOVINO/KLINE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 252234
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
634 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL PROGRESS
TO THE EAST, PASSING OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD GRADUALLY INTO OUR REGION DURING
THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE
OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION AT THAT TIME, THEN HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
THE RATHER DRY AIR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS INITIALLY COULD RESULT IN
ENOUGH EVAPORATIVE COOLING AT THE ONSET TO PRODUCE SOME ICE PELLETS.
THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT AND BRIEF. THE POPS WERE INCREASED A
BIT FASTER EARLY THIS EVENING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES.

OTHERWISE, SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS
OF OUR FORECAST AREA, NAMELY THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA, AS AN AREA OF
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND THEN
REDEVELOPS JUST OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN EARLY MORNING
SUNDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH, IT`S ONLY THE
NORTHERN EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT WILL AFFECT PARTS OF
OUR FORECAST AREA, MAINLY OUR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA ZONES,
WHERE WE DO HAVE SOME LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR RAIN THIS
EVENING TO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. WE HAVE ALSO
MAINTAINED SOME CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTENDING A LITTLE FARTHER
NORTH, ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN NJ, WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN IS
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

A PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF TONIGHT. IT`S UP NORTH WHERE THE
HIGH CLOUD COVER MAY NOT BE AS THICK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
POSSIBLY FALL OFF A LITTLE MORE EFFICIENTLY WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS
MAY ALLOW FOR THE OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME FROST TO FORM, MAINLY FOR
AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 78. WITH THIS IN MIND, A FROST ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NJ AND ADJACENT AREAS IN EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

WE MAINLY USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES, AND WE EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE MIDDLE 30S
TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL ADVANCE FARTHER
EAST AND OUT TO SEA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THROUGH THE
MORNING, THOUGH, THICKER CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
WILL REMAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN EXPECT MORE OF A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY
WITH SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW LATE APRIL AVERAGES, MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MOSTLY THE LOWER TO PERHAPS
MIDDLE 60S, WITH SOME COOLER 50S ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S RANGE IN
MUCH OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. SOME LOCATIONS IN
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH PATCHY
FROST POSSIBLE.

WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF NOVA
SCOTIA DURING THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A
MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDS TO OUR
REGION FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO, THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BEING THAT THE AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
QUITE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF EVAPORATION IS LIKELY.

A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. THE RIDGE SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH DAYS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE DRY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE MID LEVEL
LOW THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. ALSO, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH A COASTAL LOW PASSING
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH
MOST OF ITS IMPACT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WE SHOULD BE
INFLUENCED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
AND WE WILL MENTION SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THAT
PERIOD OF TIME.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST AND DRY WEATHER ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN THE NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAY PASS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY.
IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WE ARE
EXPECTING NO MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND THEY MAY GO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR WITH A CEILING AT OR ABOVE 10000 FEET AT TIMES. WINDS
WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF A WESTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS,
THEN BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LEADING UP TO
DAYBREAK SUNDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND IN THE 5 TO 10
KNOT RANGE. SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE KMIV AND KACY
SITES IS POSSIBLE DURING TONIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY.

SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL WITH MAINLY SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAYTIME. NORTHERLY WINDS MAINLY 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
FOR DELAWARE BAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY, BUT
OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS FOR
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, LITTLE IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...A NORTHWEST WIND MAY GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR PAZ061-062-105.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NJZ001-007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/IOVINO
NEAR TERM...GORSE/KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO/KLINE
MARINE...IOVINO/KLINE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 251948
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD GRADUALLY INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE
OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS
ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION AT THAT TIME WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, NAMELY
THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA, AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND THEN REDEVELOPS JUST OFF
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN EARLY MORNING SUNDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH, IT`S ONLY THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT WILL AFFECT PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA,
MAINLY OUR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA ZONES, WHERE WE DO HAVE
SOME LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR RAIN FROM THE LATE EVENING TO
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. WE HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTENDING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH,
ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN NJ, WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

OTHERWISE, MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF TONIGHT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. IT`S THERE THAT THE HIGH CLOUD COVER MAY NOT BE AS
THICK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO POSSIBLY FALL OFF A LITTLE MORE
EFFICIENTLY WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME PATCHY FROST TO FORM, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 78. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NJ AND ADJACENT AREAS IN EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

WE MAINLY USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES, AND WE EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE MIDDLE
30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL ADVANCE FARTHER
EAST AND OUT TO SEA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THROUGH THE
MORNING, THOUGH, THICKER CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
WILL REMAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN EXPECT MORE OF A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY
WITH SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW LATE APRIL AVERAGES, MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MOSTLY THE LOWER TO PERHAPS
MIDDLE 60S, WITH SOME COOLER 50S ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S RANGE IN
MUCH OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. SOME LOCATIONS IN
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH PATCHY
FROST POSSIBLE.

WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF NOVA
SCOTIA DURING THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A
MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDS TO OUR
REGION FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO, THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BEING THAT THE AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
QUITE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF EVAPORATION IS LIKELY.

A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. THE RIDGE SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH DAYS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE DRY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE MID LEVEL
LOW THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. ALSO, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH A COASTAL LOW PASSING
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH
MOST OF ITS IMPACT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WE SHOULD BE
INFLUENCED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
AND WE WILL MENTION SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THAT
PERIOD OF TIME.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST AND DRY WEATHER ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN THE NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAY PASS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY.
IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WE ARE
EXPECTING NO MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND THEY MAY GO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME BKN TO OVC
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS INTO THIS EVENING, THEN
BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LEADING UP TO
DAYBREAK SUNDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND IN THE 5 TO
10 KNOT RANGE. SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE KMIV AND
KACY SITES IS POSSIBLE DURING TONIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY, AND VCSH
HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR THESE SITES.

SUNDAY...OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED, MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
FOR DELAWARE BAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY, BUT
OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS FOR
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, LITTLE IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...A NORTHWEST WIND MAY GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLINE
MARINE...IOVINO/KLINE



000
FXUS61 KPHI 251948
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD GRADUALLY INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE
OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS
ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION AT THAT TIME WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, NAMELY
THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA, AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND THEN REDEVELOPS JUST OFF
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN EARLY MORNING SUNDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH, IT`S ONLY THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT WILL AFFECT PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA,
MAINLY OUR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA ZONES, WHERE WE DO HAVE
SOME LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR RAIN FROM THE LATE EVENING TO
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. WE HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTENDING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH,
ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN NJ, WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

OTHERWISE, MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF TONIGHT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. IT`S THERE THAT THE HIGH CLOUD COVER MAY NOT BE AS
THICK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO POSSIBLY FALL OFF A LITTLE MORE
EFFICIENTLY WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME PATCHY FROST TO FORM, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 78. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NJ AND ADJACENT AREAS IN EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

WE MAINLY USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES, AND WE EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE MIDDLE
30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL ADVANCE FARTHER
EAST AND OUT TO SEA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THROUGH THE
MORNING, THOUGH, THICKER CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
WILL REMAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN EXPECT MORE OF A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY
WITH SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW LATE APRIL AVERAGES, MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MOSTLY THE LOWER TO PERHAPS
MIDDLE 60S, WITH SOME COOLER 50S ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S RANGE IN
MUCH OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. SOME LOCATIONS IN
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH PATCHY
FROST POSSIBLE.

WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF NOVA
SCOTIA DURING THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A
MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDS TO OUR
REGION FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO, THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BEING THAT THE AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
QUITE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF EVAPORATION IS LIKELY.

A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. THE RIDGE SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH DAYS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE DRY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE MID LEVEL
LOW THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. ALSO, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH A COASTAL LOW PASSING
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH
MOST OF ITS IMPACT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WE SHOULD BE
INFLUENCED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
AND WE WILL MENTION SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THAT
PERIOD OF TIME.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST AND DRY WEATHER ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN THE NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAY PASS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY.
IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WE ARE
EXPECTING NO MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND THEY MAY GO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME BKN TO OVC
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS INTO THIS EVENING, THEN
BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LEADING UP TO
DAYBREAK SUNDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND IN THE 5 TO
10 KNOT RANGE. SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE KMIV AND
KACY SITES IS POSSIBLE DURING TONIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY, AND VCSH
HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR THESE SITES.

SUNDAY...OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED, MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
FOR DELAWARE BAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY, BUT
OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS FOR
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, LITTLE IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...A NORTHWEST WIND MAY GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLINE
MARINE...IOVINO/KLINE



000
FXUS61 KPHI 251948
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
348 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY
THIS AFTERNOON WILL PROGRESS TO THE EAST AND IT SHOULD PASS OFF
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST
TO BUILD GRADUALLY INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING THE
EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF THE NEW WEEK. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AND MOVE
OUT TO SEA ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS
ANTICIPATED TO PASS THROUGH OUR REGION AT THAT TIME WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT, SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL GRADUALLY
SPREAD ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR FORECAST AREA, NAMELY
THE SOUTHERN DELMARVA, AS AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND THEN REDEVELOPS JUST OFF
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST IN EARLY MORNING SUNDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM
WILL REMAIN OFF TO OUR SOUTH, IT`S ONLY THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT WILL AFFECT PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA,
MAINLY OUR CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN DELMARVA ZONES, WHERE WE DO HAVE
SOME LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS FOR RAIN FROM THE LATE EVENING TO
EARLY MORNING HOURS OF SUNDAY. WE HAVE ALSO MAINTAINED SOME
CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POPS EXTENDING A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH,
ESPECIALLY INTO SOUTHERN NJ, WHERE SOME LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE
DEPENDING ON THE MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER.

OTHERWISE, MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE BULK OF TONIGHT, EXCEPT POSSIBLY FOR OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. IT`S THERE THAT THE HIGH CLOUD COVER MAY NOT BE AS
THICK, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO POSSIBLY FALL OFF A LITTLE MORE
EFFICIENTLY WITH LIGHT WINDS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR THE OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME PATCHY FROST TO FORM, MAINLY FOR AREAS NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 78. WITH THIS IN MIND, WE HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY
FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NJ AND ADJACENT AREAS IN EASTERN
PENNSYLVANIA.

WE MAINLY USED A BLEND OF MET/MAV GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES, AND WE EXPECT LOWS TO RANGE MOSTLY FROM THE MIDDLE
30S TO THE LOWER 40S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL ADVANCE FARTHER
EAST AND OUT TO SEA THROUGH THE COURSE OF THE DAY. THROUGH THE
MORNING, THOUGH, THICKER CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN
WILL REMAIN FOR OUR SOUTHERN ZONES AS THIS SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. THE
REST OF THE FORECAST AREA CAN EXPECT MORE OF A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY
WITH SOME LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND TEMPERATURES ONLY SLIGHTLY
BELOW LATE APRIL AVERAGES, MILDER THAN THE LAST FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REACH MOSTLY THE LOWER TO PERHAPS
MIDDLE 60S, WITH SOME COOLER 50S ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE AND INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A PARTLY CLOUDY SKY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES
ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S RANGE IN
MUCH OF OUR REGION BY DAYBREAK ON MONDAY. SOME LOCATIONS IN
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY COULD FALL INTO THE MIDDLE 30S WITH PATCHY
FROST POSSIBLE.

WE SHOULD REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A MID LEVEL LOW OFF NOVA
SCOTIA DURING THE PERIOD FROM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. A
MID LEVEL TROUGH ROTATING AROUND THE LOW IS FORECAST TO PASS
OVERHEAD ON MONDAY. THE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO BRING CLOUDS TO OUR
REGION FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ALSO, THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING. ANY RAIN SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT BEING THAT THE AIR MASS IS ANTICIPATED TO BE
QUITE DRY AND A FAIR AMOUNT OF EVAPORATION IS LIKELY.

A WEAK MID LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST ON TUESDAY AS THE MID LEVEL LOW MOVES FARTHER OUT TO
SEA. THE RIDGE SHOULD PASS OVERHEAD ON WEDNESDAY. BOTH DAYS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE DRY.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DIFFER ON THE HANDLING OF THE MID LEVEL
LOW THAT IS ANTICIPATED TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
STATES LATE IN THE WEEK. ALSO, THERE IS DISAGREEMENT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE FEATURES. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WITH A COASTAL LOW PASSING
OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. IT CONTINUES TO APPEAR AS THOUGH
MOST OF ITS IMPACT WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. WE SHOULD BE
INFLUENCED BY A COLD FRONT DROPPING THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
AND WE WILL MENTION SOME CLOUDS AND A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THAT
PERIOD OF TIME.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE WEST AND DRY WEATHER ARE
ANTICIPATED TO FOLLOW FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
IN THE NORTHWESTERLY MID LEVEL FLOW MAY PASS OVERHEAD ON SATURDAY.
IT WILL HAVE LIMITED MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH IT AND WE ARE
EXPECTING NO MORE THAN SCATTERED CLOUDS AT THIS TIME.

DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW NORMAL FOR
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEY ARE EXPECTED TO BE NEAR NORMAL FOR
WEDNESDAY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, AND THEY MAY GO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL
FOR SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH TONIGHT...CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME BKN TO OVC
HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AT TIMES. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY OUT OF A
WESTERLY DIRECTION AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS INTO THIS EVENING, THEN
BECOMING MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT. LEADING UP TO
DAYBREAK SUNDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME MORE NORTHERLY AND IN THE 5 TO
10 KNOT RANGE. SOME LIGHT RAIN IN THE VICINITY OF THE KMIV AND
KACY SITES IS POSSIBLE DURING TONIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY, AND VCSH
HAS BEEN INCLUDED IN THE TAF FOR THESE SITES.

SUNDAY...OVERALL, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL, WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED CLOUDS THROUGH THE DAYTIME. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED, MAINLY IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND
FOR DELAWARE BAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS TO THE
SOUTH OF THE REGION DURING THE OVERNIGHT TO EARLY SUNDAY, BUT
OTHER THAN SOME LIGHT RAIN AND A FEW WIND GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS FOR
THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS, LITTLE IMPACT IS ANTICIPATED.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

MONDAY NIGHT...A NORTHWEST WIND MAY GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS.

TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...NO MARINE HEADLINES ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...IOVINO
NEAR TERM...KLINE
SHORT TERM...KLINE
LONG TERM...IOVINO
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLINE
MARINE...IOVINO/KLINE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 251411
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1011 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS OUR AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.
THAT LOW BECOMES PART OF LARGE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT EMERGES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND HEADS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE MID-MORNING UPDATE, THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AS TEMPS OVERALL HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO RISE, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE DELMARVA WHERE THE CLOUD COVER IS THE THICKEST. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER WERE ALSO MADE. IN ADDITION, WE ADDED
SPRINKLES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING THROUGH PORTIONS OF
THE DELMARVA BASED ON LATEST RADAR RETURNS AS SOME VERY LIGHT
RAIN OCCURRED TO OUR WEST AT KBWI.

OTHERWISE, VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH TODAY. THE THICKER
SKYCOVER FROM FAR SE PA AND SNJ SOUTHWARD. SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP
TOWARD 6 PM OVER TALBOT/CAROLINE AND SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTIES ON
THE SW EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE A
1/3RD BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 GFS/NAM MOS AND 00Z/25 ECMWF 2M TEMPS.
THE ECMWF IS QUITE COOL UNDER THE CLOUDS OVER THE DELMARVA AND
HAVE MODIFIED THE NCEP MOS DOWNWARD THERE. WARMEST TEMPS IN OUR
FCST AREA TODAY SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN NJ WHERE THERE SHOULD BE
MORE SUNSHINE.

A NICE DAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND THAN THE PREVIOUS WED-THU-FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS.

DAYTIMES TEMPS WILL BE WARMING A BIT EXCEPT THE DELMARVA WHERE IT
WILL BE CHILLY TODAY AND MAXIMUM TEMPS ALMOST 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WHILE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND ALLENTOWN AND MOUNT
POCONO NEWD THROUGH NNJ SHOULD ONLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL BE FORMING JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN PA AND NNJ BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP COASTAL NJ
AND COASTAL DE. WINDS ON THE DELMARVA WILL BE LIGHT WHERE LESS
MIXING IS EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVIER SKYCOVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...THICK HIGH CLOUD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-78, WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST RAIN SHIELD A BLEND OF HPC QPF, 50 50
00Z/25 NAM/GFS MOS AND MULTI MODEL .10 IN 6 HRS. THAT MEANS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERNMOST 40 MILES OF OUR CWA, TALBOT COUNTY, QUEEN ANNES
AND CAROLINE COUNTIES IN MD AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE, POSSIBLY KENT
COUNTY DE AND POSSIBLY THE SRN TIP OF NJ. THIS CLOUD COVER TODAY
AND CLOUD COVER/RAIN TONIGHT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REDEVELOPING
NEAR THE NC COAST. A WIND SHIFT FROM LIGHT WEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST
PROGRESSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE NIGHT.

PATCHY FROST IS IN THE FCST N OF I-78 TONIGHT. NO NEW FROST ADVY
ATTM DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THICK CLOUD
COVER. IT ALREADY FROZE UP THERE THIS MORNING SO EARLY SUSCEPTIBLE
BLOOMS WERE PROBABLY DAMAGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING AND
ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINS WILL BE AFFECTING THE SRN
PARTS OF OUR AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL PULL AWAY BY EVENING WITH
PERHAPS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL.

COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE ROTATES A FEW SHORT WAVES AND SFC TROUGHS ACROSS THE
AREA. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH CHC POPS. DRIER AIR
ARRIVES TUE...BUT STILL A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER FAR NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MON/TUE...WITH
TUE LIKELY THE MILDER DAY.

THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS BOTH SHOW ANOTHER SFC/UPPER LOW STRENGTHENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOVING NORTHEAST...JUST EAST OF
OUR AREA. IT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF CLOUDS AND
RAINS S/E FOR THU AND INTO EARLY FRI. ANY CHANGES WITH THE TRACK
COULD BRING SOME HEAVIER RAINS TO THE AREA. WE HAVE JUST USED THE
WPC POPS FOR NOW...MOSTLY CHC (THU) AND SLGT CHC (THU NIGHT).
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE/LATE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...BKN CIGS AOA 10000 FT DEVELOPING SOUTH PORTION MAY
BRIEFLY THIN LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHER THINNER CLOUDS KABE
NORTHWARD.

LIGHT WEST - NORTHWEST WIND WIND BECOMING WEST MIDDAY WITH GUSTS
TO ABOUT 15 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN NJ/PA BUT
SEABREEZES DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS MID AND LATE AFTN.

TONIGHT...CIGS AOA 8000 FT, ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z/26. A SPRINKLE
POSSIBLE KPHL/KILG/KMIV KACY BUT NOT IN THE FCST ATTM. IT MAY BE
TOO DRY IN THE LAYER UNDER 8000 FT. LIGHT WEST WIND SHIFTING N-NE
DURING THE NIGHT. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS AS A WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, AS ANY SUB-VFR IN RAIN TO START
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED; ALTHOUGH, CONDITIONS
MAY DETERIORATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
BACKING TO WESTERLY MIDDAY THEN SEA BREEZES DURING MID - LATE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING N-NE LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. RAIN SOUTH.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY SUB-SCA BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 KTS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS. TUE THRU WED...MOSTLY SUB SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES ONCE AGAIN RANGING FROM 20 TO 35 PERCENT NORTH TO SOUTH.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY
NEAR OR BELOW 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. NO ACTION ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLINE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 251411
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1011 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS OUR AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.
THAT LOW BECOMES PART OF LARGE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT EMERGES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND HEADS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE MID-MORNING UPDATE, THE MAIN ADJUSTMENTS WERE TO HOURLY
TEMPERATURES AS TEMPS OVERALL HAVE BEEN SLOWER TO RISE, ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE DELMARVA WHERE THE CLOUD COVER IS THE THICKEST. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY COVER WERE ALSO MADE. IN ADDITION, WE ADDED
SPRINKLES FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS MORNING THROUGH PORTIONS OF
THE DELMARVA BASED ON LATEST RADAR RETURNS AS SOME VERY LIGHT
RAIN OCCURRED TO OUR WEST AT KBWI.

OTHERWISE, VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER THROUGH TODAY. THE THICKER
SKYCOVER FROM FAR SE PA AND SNJ SOUTHWARD. SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP
TOWARD 6 PM OVER TALBOT/CAROLINE AND SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTIES ON
THE SW EDGE OF OUR FCST AREA. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE A
1/3RD BLEND OF THE 00Z/25 GFS/NAM MOS AND 00Z/25 ECMWF 2M TEMPS.
THE ECMWF IS QUITE COOL UNDER THE CLOUDS OVER THE DELMARVA AND
HAVE MODIFIED THE NCEP MOS DOWNWARD THERE. WARMEST TEMPS IN OUR
FCST AREA TODAY SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN NJ WHERE THERE SHOULD BE
MORE SUNSHINE.

A NICE DAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND THAN THE PREVIOUS WED-THU-FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS.

DAYTIMES TEMPS WILL BE WARMING A BIT EXCEPT THE DELMARVA WHERE IT
WILL BE CHILLY TODAY AND MAXIMUM TEMPS ALMOST 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WHILE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND ALLENTOWN AND MOUNT
POCONO NEWD THROUGH NNJ SHOULD ONLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL BE FORMING JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN PA AND NNJ BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP COASTAL NJ
AND COASTAL DE. WINDS ON THE DELMARVA WILL BE LIGHT WHERE LESS
MIXING IS EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVIER SKYCOVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...THICK HIGH CLOUD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-78, WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST RAIN SHIELD A BLEND OF HPC QPF, 50 50
00Z/25 NAM/GFS MOS AND MULTI MODEL .10 IN 6 HRS. THAT MEANS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERNMOST 40 MILES OF OUR CWA, TALBOT COUNTY, QUEEN ANNES
AND CAROLINE COUNTIES IN MD AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE, POSSIBLY KENT
COUNTY DE AND POSSIBLY THE SRN TIP OF NJ. THIS CLOUD COVER TODAY
AND CLOUD COVER/RAIN TONIGHT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REDEVELOPING
NEAR THE NC COAST. A WIND SHIFT FROM LIGHT WEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST
PROGRESSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE NIGHT.

PATCHY FROST IS IN THE FCST N OF I-78 TONIGHT. NO NEW FROST ADVY
ATTM DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THICK CLOUD
COVER. IT ALREADY FROZE UP THERE THIS MORNING SO EARLY SUSCEPTIBLE
BLOOMS WERE PROBABLY DAMAGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING AND
ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINS WILL BE AFFECTING THE SRN
PARTS OF OUR AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL PULL AWAY BY EVENING WITH
PERHAPS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL.

COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE ROTATES A FEW SHORT WAVES AND SFC TROUGHS ACROSS THE
AREA. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH CHC POPS. DRIER AIR
ARRIVES TUE...BUT STILL A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER FAR NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MON/TUE...WITH
TUE LIKELY THE MILDER DAY.

THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS BOTH SHOW ANOTHER SFC/UPPER LOW STRENGTHENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOVING NORTHEAST...JUST EAST OF
OUR AREA. IT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF CLOUDS AND
RAINS S/E FOR THU AND INTO EARLY FRI. ANY CHANGES WITH THE TRACK
COULD BRING SOME HEAVIER RAINS TO THE AREA. WE HAVE JUST USED THE
WPC POPS FOR NOW...MOSTLY CHC (THU) AND SLGT CHC (THU NIGHT).
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE/LATE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...BKN CIGS AOA 10000 FT DEVELOPING SOUTH PORTION MAY
BRIEFLY THIN LATE IN THE DAY. HIGHER THINNER CLOUDS KABE
NORTHWARD.

LIGHT WEST - NORTHWEST WIND WIND BECOMING WEST MIDDAY WITH GUSTS
TO ABOUT 15 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN NJ/PA BUT
SEABREEZES DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS MID AND LATE AFTN.

TONIGHT...CIGS AOA 8000 FT, ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z/26. A SPRINKLE
POSSIBLE KPHL/KILG/KMIV KACY BUT NOT IN THE FCST ATTM. IT MAY BE
TOO DRY IN THE LAYER UNDER 8000 FT. LIGHT WEST WIND SHIFTING N-NE
DURING THE NIGHT. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS AS A WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, AS ANY SUB-VFR IN RAIN TO START
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED; ALTHOUGH, CONDITIONS
MAY DETERIORATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
BACKING TO WESTERLY MIDDAY THEN SEA BREEZES DURING MID - LATE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING N-NE LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. RAIN SOUTH.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY SUB-SCA BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 KTS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS. TUE THRU WED...MOSTLY SUB SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES ONCE AGAIN RANGING FROM 20 TO 35 PERCENT NORTH TO SOUTH.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY
NEAR OR BELOW 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. NO ACTION ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLINE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 251220
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
820 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS OUR AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.
THAT LOW BECOMES PART OF LARGE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT EMERGES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND HEADS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 12Z, AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE THIS MORNING.

TODAY...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER. THE THICKER SKYCOVER FROM FAR
SE PA AND SNJ SOUTHWARD. SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP TOWARD 6 PM OVER
TALBOT/CAROLINE AND SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTIES ON THE SW EDGE OF OUR
FCST AREA. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE A 1/3RD BLEND OF THE
00Z/25 GFS/NAM MOS AND 00Z/25 ECMWF 2M TEMPS. THE ECMWF IS QUITE
COOL UNDER THE CLOUDS OVER THE DELMARVA AND HAVE MODIFIED THE
NCEP MOS DOWNWARD THERE. WARMEST TEMPS IN OUR FCST AREA TODAY
SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN NJ WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NICE DAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND THAN THE PREVIOUS WED-THU-FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS.

DAYTIMES TEMPS WILL BE WARMING A BIT EXCEPT THE DELMARVA WHERE IT
WILL BE CHILLY TODAY AND MAXIMUM TEMPS ALMOST 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WHILE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND ALLENTOWN AND MOUNT
POCONO NEWD THROUGH NNJ SHOULD ONLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL BE FORMING JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN PA AND NNJ BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP COASTAL NJ
AND COASTAL DE. WINDS ON THE DELMARVA WILL BE LIGHT WHERE LESS
MIXING IS EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVIER SKYCOVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...THICK HIGH CLOUD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-78, WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST RAIN SHIELD A BLEND OF HPC QPF, 50 50
00Z/25 NAM/GFS MOS AND MULTI MODEL .10 IN 6 HRS. THAT MEANS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERNMOST 40 MILES OF OUR CWA, TALBOT COUNTY, QUEEN ANNES
AND CAROLINE COUNTIES IN MD AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE, POSSIBLY KENT
COUNTY DE AND POSSIBLY THE SRN TIP OF NJ. THIS CLOUD COVER TODAY
AND CLOUD COVER/RAIN TONIGHT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REDEVELOPING
NEAR THE NC COAST. A WIND SHIFT FROM LIGHT WEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST
PROGRESSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE NIGHT.

PATCHY FROST IS IN THE FCST N OF I-78 TONIGHT. NO NEW FROST ADVY
ATTM DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THICK CLOUD
COVER. IT ALREADY FROZE UP THERE THIS MORNING SO EARLY SUSCEPTIBLE
BLOOMS WERE PROBABLY DAMAGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING AND
ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINS WILL BE AFFECTING THE SRN
PARTS OF OUR AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL PULL AWAY BY EVENING WITH
PERHAPS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL.

COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE ROTATES A FEW SHORT WAVES AND SFC TROUGHS ACROSS THE
AREA. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH CHC POPS. DRIER AIR
ARRIVES TUE...BUT STILL A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER FAR NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MON/TUE...WITH
TUE LIKELY THE MILDER DAY.

THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS BOTH SHOW ANOTHER SFC/UPPER LOW STRENGTHENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOVING NORTHEAST...JUST EAST OF
OUR AREA. IT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF CLOUDS AND
RAINS S/E FOR THU AND INTO EARLY FRI. ANY CHANGES WITH THE TRACK
COULD BRING SOME HEAVIER RAINS TO THE AREA. WE HAVE JUST USED THE
WPC POPS FOR NOW...MOSTLY CHC (THU) AND SLGT CHC (THU NIGHT).
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE/LATE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...BKN CIGS AOA 12000 FT DEVELOPING SOUTH PORTION MAY BRIEFLY
THIN LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHER THINNER CLOUDS KABE NORTHWARD.

LIGHT WEST - NORTHWEST WIND WIND BECOMING WEST MIDDAY WITH GUSTS
TO 15 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN NJ/PA BUT SEABREEZES
DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS MID AND LATE AFTN.

TONIGHT...CIGS AOA 8000 FT, ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z/26. A SPRINKLE
POSSIBLE KPHL/KILG/KMIV KACY BUT NOT IN THE FCST ATTM. IT MAY BE
TOO DRY IN THE LAYER UNDER 8000 FT. LIGHT WEST WIND SHIFTING N-NE
DURING THE NIGHT. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS AS A WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, AS ANY SUB-VFR IN RAIN TO START
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED; ALTHOUGH, CONDITIONS
MAY DETERIORATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
BACKING TO WESTERLY MIDDAY THEN SEA BREEZES DURING MID - LATE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING N-NE LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. RAIN SOUTH.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY SUB-SCA BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 KTS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS. TUE THRU WED...MOSTLY SUB SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES ONCE AGAIN RANGING FROM 20 TO 35 PERCENT NORTH TO SOUTH.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY
NEAR OR BELOW 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. NO ACTION ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLINE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 251220
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
820 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS OUR AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.
THAT LOW BECOMES PART OF LARGE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT EMERGES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND HEADS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 12Z, AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE THIS MORNING.

TODAY...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER. THE THICKER SKYCOVER FROM FAR
SE PA AND SNJ SOUTHWARD. SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP TOWARD 6 PM OVER
TALBOT/CAROLINE AND SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTIES ON THE SW EDGE OF OUR
FCST AREA. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE A 1/3RD BLEND OF THE
00Z/25 GFS/NAM MOS AND 00Z/25 ECMWF 2M TEMPS. THE ECMWF IS QUITE
COOL UNDER THE CLOUDS OVER THE DELMARVA AND HAVE MODIFIED THE
NCEP MOS DOWNWARD THERE. WARMEST TEMPS IN OUR FCST AREA TODAY
SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN NJ WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NICE DAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND THAN THE PREVIOUS WED-THU-FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS.

DAYTIMES TEMPS WILL BE WARMING A BIT EXCEPT THE DELMARVA WHERE IT
WILL BE CHILLY TODAY AND MAXIMUM TEMPS ALMOST 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WHILE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND ALLENTOWN AND MOUNT
POCONO NEWD THROUGH NNJ SHOULD ONLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL BE FORMING JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN PA AND NNJ BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP COASTAL NJ
AND COASTAL DE. WINDS ON THE DELMARVA WILL BE LIGHT WHERE LESS
MIXING IS EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVIER SKYCOVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...THICK HIGH CLOUD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-78, WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST RAIN SHIELD A BLEND OF HPC QPF, 50 50
00Z/25 NAM/GFS MOS AND MULTI MODEL .10 IN 6 HRS. THAT MEANS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERNMOST 40 MILES OF OUR CWA, TALBOT COUNTY, QUEEN ANNES
AND CAROLINE COUNTIES IN MD AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE, POSSIBLY KENT
COUNTY DE AND POSSIBLY THE SRN TIP OF NJ. THIS CLOUD COVER TODAY
AND CLOUD COVER/RAIN TONIGHT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REDEVELOPING
NEAR THE NC COAST. A WIND SHIFT FROM LIGHT WEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST
PROGRESSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE NIGHT.

PATCHY FROST IS IN THE FCST N OF I-78 TONIGHT. NO NEW FROST ADVY
ATTM DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THICK CLOUD
COVER. IT ALREADY FROZE UP THERE THIS MORNING SO EARLY SUSCEPTIBLE
BLOOMS WERE PROBABLY DAMAGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING AND
ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINS WILL BE AFFECTING THE SRN
PARTS OF OUR AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL PULL AWAY BY EVENING WITH
PERHAPS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL.

COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE ROTATES A FEW SHORT WAVES AND SFC TROUGHS ACROSS THE
AREA. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH CHC POPS. DRIER AIR
ARRIVES TUE...BUT STILL A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER FAR NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MON/TUE...WITH
TUE LIKELY THE MILDER DAY.

THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS BOTH SHOW ANOTHER SFC/UPPER LOW STRENGTHENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOVING NORTHEAST...JUST EAST OF
OUR AREA. IT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF CLOUDS AND
RAINS S/E FOR THU AND INTO EARLY FRI. ANY CHANGES WITH THE TRACK
COULD BRING SOME HEAVIER RAINS TO THE AREA. WE HAVE JUST USED THE
WPC POPS FOR NOW...MOSTLY CHC (THU) AND SLGT CHC (THU NIGHT).
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE/LATE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...BKN CIGS AOA 12000 FT DEVELOPING SOUTH PORTION MAY BRIEFLY
THIN LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHER THINNER CLOUDS KABE NORTHWARD.

LIGHT WEST - NORTHWEST WIND WIND BECOMING WEST MIDDAY WITH GUSTS
TO 15 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN NJ/PA BUT SEABREEZES
DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS MID AND LATE AFTN.

TONIGHT...CIGS AOA 8000 FT, ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z/26. A SPRINKLE
POSSIBLE KPHL/KILG/KMIV KACY BUT NOT IN THE FCST ATTM. IT MAY BE
TOO DRY IN THE LAYER UNDER 8000 FT. LIGHT WEST WIND SHIFTING N-NE
DURING THE NIGHT. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS AS A WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, AS ANY SUB-VFR IN RAIN TO START
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED; ALTHOUGH, CONDITIONS
MAY DETERIORATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
BACKING TO WESTERLY MIDDAY THEN SEA BREEZES DURING MID - LATE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING N-NE LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. RAIN SOUTH.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY SUB-SCA BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 KTS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS. TUE THRU WED...MOSTLY SUB SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES ONCE AGAIN RANGING FROM 20 TO 35 PERCENT NORTH TO SOUTH.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY
NEAR OR BELOW 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. NO ACTION ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLINE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 251220
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
820 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS OUR AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.
THAT LOW BECOMES PART OF LARGE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT EMERGES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND HEADS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 12Z, AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE THIS MORNING.

TODAY...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER. THE THICKER SKYCOVER FROM FAR
SE PA AND SNJ SOUTHWARD. SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP TOWARD 6 PM OVER
TALBOT/CAROLINE AND SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTIES ON THE SW EDGE OF OUR
FCST AREA. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE A 1/3RD BLEND OF THE
00Z/25 GFS/NAM MOS AND 00Z/25 ECMWF 2M TEMPS. THE ECMWF IS QUITE
COOL UNDER THE CLOUDS OVER THE DELMARVA AND HAVE MODIFIED THE
NCEP MOS DOWNWARD THERE. WARMEST TEMPS IN OUR FCST AREA TODAY
SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN NJ WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NICE DAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND THAN THE PREVIOUS WED-THU-FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS.

DAYTIMES TEMPS WILL BE WARMING A BIT EXCEPT THE DELMARVA WHERE IT
WILL BE CHILLY TODAY AND MAXIMUM TEMPS ALMOST 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WHILE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND ALLENTOWN AND MOUNT
POCONO NEWD THROUGH NNJ SHOULD ONLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL BE FORMING JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN PA AND NNJ BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP COASTAL NJ
AND COASTAL DE. WINDS ON THE DELMARVA WILL BE LIGHT WHERE LESS
MIXING IS EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVIER SKYCOVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...THICK HIGH CLOUD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-78, WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST RAIN SHIELD A BLEND OF HPC QPF, 50 50
00Z/25 NAM/GFS MOS AND MULTI MODEL .10 IN 6 HRS. THAT MEANS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERNMOST 40 MILES OF OUR CWA, TALBOT COUNTY, QUEEN ANNES
AND CAROLINE COUNTIES IN MD AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE, POSSIBLY KENT
COUNTY DE AND POSSIBLY THE SRN TIP OF NJ. THIS CLOUD COVER TODAY
AND CLOUD COVER/RAIN TONIGHT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REDEVELOPING
NEAR THE NC COAST. A WIND SHIFT FROM LIGHT WEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST
PROGRESSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE NIGHT.

PATCHY FROST IS IN THE FCST N OF I-78 TONIGHT. NO NEW FROST ADVY
ATTM DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THICK CLOUD
COVER. IT ALREADY FROZE UP THERE THIS MORNING SO EARLY SUSCEPTIBLE
BLOOMS WERE PROBABLY DAMAGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING AND
ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINS WILL BE AFFECTING THE SRN
PARTS OF OUR AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL PULL AWAY BY EVENING WITH
PERHAPS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL.

COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE ROTATES A FEW SHORT WAVES AND SFC TROUGHS ACROSS THE
AREA. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH CHC POPS. DRIER AIR
ARRIVES TUE...BUT STILL A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER FAR NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MON/TUE...WITH
TUE LIKELY THE MILDER DAY.

THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS BOTH SHOW ANOTHER SFC/UPPER LOW STRENGTHENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOVING NORTHEAST...JUST EAST OF
OUR AREA. IT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF CLOUDS AND
RAINS S/E FOR THU AND INTO EARLY FRI. ANY CHANGES WITH THE TRACK
COULD BRING SOME HEAVIER RAINS TO THE AREA. WE HAVE JUST USED THE
WPC POPS FOR NOW...MOSTLY CHC (THU) AND SLGT CHC (THU NIGHT).
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE/LATE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...BKN CIGS AOA 12000 FT DEVELOPING SOUTH PORTION MAY BRIEFLY
THIN LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHER THINNER CLOUDS KABE NORTHWARD.

LIGHT WEST - NORTHWEST WIND WIND BECOMING WEST MIDDAY WITH GUSTS
TO 15 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN NJ/PA BUT SEABREEZES
DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS MID AND LATE AFTN.

TONIGHT...CIGS AOA 8000 FT, ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z/26. A SPRINKLE
POSSIBLE KPHL/KILG/KMIV KACY BUT NOT IN THE FCST ATTM. IT MAY BE
TOO DRY IN THE LAYER UNDER 8000 FT. LIGHT WEST WIND SHIFTING N-NE
DURING THE NIGHT. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS AS A WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, AS ANY SUB-VFR IN RAIN TO START
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED; ALTHOUGH, CONDITIONS
MAY DETERIORATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
BACKING TO WESTERLY MIDDAY THEN SEA BREEZES DURING MID - LATE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING N-NE LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. RAIN SOUTH.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY SUB-SCA BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 KTS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS. TUE THRU WED...MOSTLY SUB SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES ONCE AGAIN RANGING FROM 20 TO 35 PERCENT NORTH TO SOUTH.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY
NEAR OR BELOW 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. NO ACTION ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLINE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 251220
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
820 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS OUR AREA TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.
THAT LOW BECOMES PART OF LARGE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT EMERGES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND HEADS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES WERE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 12Z, AS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE THIS MORNING.

TODAY...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER. THE THICKER SKYCOVER FROM FAR
SE PA AND SNJ SOUTHWARD. SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP TOWARD 6 PM OVER
TALBOT/CAROLINE AND SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTIES ON THE SW EDGE OF OUR
FCST AREA. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE A 1/3RD BLEND OF THE
00Z/25 GFS/NAM MOS AND 00Z/25 ECMWF 2M TEMPS. THE ECMWF IS QUITE
COOL UNDER THE CLOUDS OVER THE DELMARVA AND HAVE MODIFIED THE
NCEP MOS DOWNWARD THERE. WARMEST TEMPS IN OUR FCST AREA TODAY
SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN NJ WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NICE DAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND THAN THE PREVIOUS WED-THU-FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS.

DAYTIMES TEMPS WILL BE WARMING A BIT EXCEPT THE DELMARVA WHERE IT
WILL BE CHILLY TODAY AND MAXIMUM TEMPS ALMOST 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WHILE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND ALLENTOWN AND MOUNT
POCONO NEWD THROUGH NNJ SHOULD ONLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL BE FORMING JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN PA AND NNJ BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP COASTAL NJ
AND COASTAL DE. WINDS ON THE DELMARVA WILL BE LIGHT WHERE LESS
MIXING IS EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVIER SKYCOVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...THICK HIGH CLOUD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-78, WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST RAIN SHIELD A BLEND OF HPC QPF, 50 50
00Z/25 NAM/GFS MOS AND MULTI MODEL .10 IN 6 HRS. THAT MEANS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERNMOST 40 MILES OF OUR CWA, TALBOT COUNTY, QUEEN ANNES
AND CAROLINE COUNTIES IN MD AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE, POSSIBLY KENT
COUNTY DE AND POSSIBLY THE SRN TIP OF NJ. THIS CLOUD COVER TODAY
AND CLOUD COVER/RAIN TONIGHT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REDEVELOPING
NEAR THE NC COAST. A WIND SHIFT FROM LIGHT WEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST
PROGRESSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE NIGHT.

PATCHY FROST IS IN THE FCST N OF I-78 TONIGHT. NO NEW FROST ADVY
ATTM DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THICK CLOUD
COVER. IT ALREADY FROZE UP THERE THIS MORNING SO EARLY SUSCEPTIBLE
BLOOMS WERE PROBABLY DAMAGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING AND
ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINS WILL BE AFFECTING THE SRN
PARTS OF OUR AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL PULL AWAY BY EVENING WITH
PERHAPS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL.

COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE ROTATES A FEW SHORT WAVES AND SFC TROUGHS ACROSS THE
AREA. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH CHC POPS. DRIER AIR
ARRIVES TUE...BUT STILL A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER FAR NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MON/TUE...WITH
TUE LIKELY THE MILDER DAY.

THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS BOTH SHOW ANOTHER SFC/UPPER LOW STRENGTHENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOVING NORTHEAST...JUST EAST OF
OUR AREA. IT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF CLOUDS AND
RAINS S/E FOR THU AND INTO EARLY FRI. ANY CHANGES WITH THE TRACK
COULD BRING SOME HEAVIER RAINS TO THE AREA. WE HAVE JUST USED THE
WPC POPS FOR NOW...MOSTLY CHC (THU) AND SLGT CHC (THU NIGHT).
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE/LATE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...BKN CIGS AOA 12000 FT DEVELOPING SOUTH PORTION MAY BRIEFLY
THIN LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHER THINNER CLOUDS KABE NORTHWARD.

LIGHT WEST - NORTHWEST WIND WIND BECOMING WEST MIDDAY WITH GUSTS
TO 15 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN NJ/PA BUT SEABREEZES
DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS MID AND LATE AFTN.

TONIGHT...CIGS AOA 8000 FT, ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z/26. A SPRINKLE
POSSIBLE KPHL/KILG/KMIV KACY BUT NOT IN THE FCST ATTM. IT MAY BE
TOO DRY IN THE LAYER UNDER 8000 FT. LIGHT WEST WIND SHIFTING N-NE
DURING THE NIGHT. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS AS A WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, AS ANY SUB-VFR IN RAIN TO START
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED; ALTHOUGH, CONDITIONS
MAY DETERIORATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
BACKING TO WESTERLY MIDDAY THEN SEA BREEZES DURING MID - LATE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING N-NE LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. RAIN SOUTH.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY SUB-SCA BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 KTS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS. TUE THRU WED...MOSTLY SUB SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES ONCE AGAIN RANGING FROM 20 TO 35 PERCENT NORTH TO SOUTH.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY
NEAR OR BELOW 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. NO ACTION ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLINE
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 251033
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
633 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS OUR AREA EARLY TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.
THAT LOW BECOMES PART OF LARGE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT EMERGES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND HEADS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM PACKAGE: FROST/FREEZE HAZARD WILL BE DISCONTINUED BY 8 AM.
APPEARS TO HAVE VERIFIED WELL.

BASED ON 06Z NCEP MODELS...NO SIG CHANGE TO THE FCST ISSUED AT
330 AM. I DID ADD A LITTLE MORE SKYCOVER TODAY.

TODAY...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER. THE THICKER SKYCOVER FROM FAR
SE PA AND SNJ SOUTHWARD. SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP TOWARD 6 PM OVER
TALBOT/CAROLINE AND SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTIES ON THE SW EDGE OF OUR
FCST AREA. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE A 1/3RD BLEND OF THE
00Z/25 GFS/NAM MOS AND 00Z/25 ECMWF 2M TEMPS. THE ECMWF IS QUITE
COOL UNDER THE CLOUDS OVER THE DELMARVA AND HAVE MODIFIED THE
NCEP MOS DOWNWARD THERE. WARMEST TEMPS IN OUR FCST AREA TODAY
SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN NJ WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NICE DAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND THAN THE PREVIOUS WED-THU-FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS.

DAYTIMES TEMPS WILL BE WARMING A BIT EXCEPT THE DELMARVA WHERE IT
WILL BE CHILLY TODAY AND MAXIMUM TEMPS ALMOST 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WHILE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND ALLENTOWN AND MOUNT
POCONO NEWD THROUGH NNJ SHOULD ONLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL BE FORMING JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN PA AND NNJ BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP COASTAL NJ
AND COASTAL DE. WINDS ON THE DELMARVA WILL BE LIGHT WHERE LESS
MIXING IS EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVIER SKYCOVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...THICK HIGH CLOUD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-78, WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST RAIN SHIELD A BLEND OF HPC QPF, 50 50
00Z/25 NAM/GFS MOS AND MULTI MODEL .10 IN 6 HRS. THAT MEANS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERNMOST 40 MILES OF OUR CWA, TALBOT COUNTY, QUEEN ANNES
AND CAROLINE COUNTIES IN MD AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE, POSSIBLY KENT
COUNTY DE AND POSSIBLY THE SRN TIP OF NJ. THIS CLOUD COVER TODAY
AND CLOUD COVER/RAIN TONIGHT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REDEVELOPING
NEAR THE NC COAST. A WIND SHIFT FROM LIGHT WEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST
PROGRESSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE NIGHT.

PATCHY FROST IS IN THE FCST N OF I-78 TONIGHT. NO NEW FROST ADVY
ATTM DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THICK CLOUD
COVER. IT ALREADY FROZE UP THERE THIS MORNING SO EARLY SUSCEPTIBLE
BLOOMS WERE PROBABLY DAMAGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING AND
ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINS WILL BE AFFECTING THE SRN
PARTS OF OUR AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL PULL AWAY BY EVENING WITH
PERHAPS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL.

COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE ROTATES A FEW SHORT WAVES AND SFC TROUGHS ACROSS THE
AREA. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH CHC POPS. DRIER AIR
ARRIVES TUE...BUT STILL A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER FAR NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MON/TUE...WITH
TUE LIKELY THE MILDER DAY.

THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS BOTH SHOW ANOTHER SFC/UPPER LOW STRENGTHENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOVING NORTHEAST...JUST EAST OF
OUR AREA. IT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF CLOUDS AND
RAINS S/E FOR THU AND INTO EARLY FRI. ANY CHANGES WITH THE TRACK
COULD BRING SOME HEAVIER RAINS TO THE AREA. WE HAVE JUST USED THE
WPC POPS FOR NOW...MOSTLY CHC (THU) AND SLGT CHC (THU NIGHT).
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE/LATE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...BKN CIGS AOA 12000 FT DEVELOPING SOUTH PORTION MAY BRIEFLY
THIN LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHER THINNER CLOUDS KABE NORTHWARD.

LIGHT WEST - NORTHWEST WIND WIND BECOMING WEST MIDDAY WITH GUSTS
TO 15 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN NJ/PA BUT SEABREEZES
DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS MID AND LATE AFTN.

TONIGHT...CIGS AOA 8000 FT, ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z/26. A SPRINKLE
POSSIBLE KPHL/KILG/KMIV KACY BUT NOT IN THE FCST ATTM. IT MAY BE
TOO DRY IN THE LAYER UNDER 8000 FT. LIGHT WEST WIND SHIFTING N-NE
DURING THE NIGHT. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS AS A WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, AS ANY SUB-VFR IN RAIN TO START
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED; ALTHOUGH, CONDITIONS
MAY DETERIORATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
BACKING TO WESTERLY MIDDAY THEN SEA BREEZES DURING MID - LATE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING N-NE LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. RAIN SOUTH.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY SUB-SCA BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 KTS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS. TUE THRU WED...MOSTLY SUB SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES ONCE AGAIN RANGING FROM 20 TO 35 PERCENT NORTH TO SOUTH.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY
NEAR OR BELOW 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. NO ACTION ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060>062-
     101>106.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012-013-015>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ014-023>026.
DE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 632
SHORT TERM...DRAG 632
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 632
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 632
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 251033
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
633 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS OUR AREA EARLY TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.
THAT LOW BECOMES PART OF LARGE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT EMERGES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND HEADS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM PACKAGE: FROST/FREEZE HAZARD WILL BE DISCONTINUED BY 8 AM.
APPEARS TO HAVE VERIFIED WELL.

BASED ON 06Z NCEP MODELS...NO SIG CHANGE TO THE FCST ISSUED AT
330 AM. I DID ADD A LITTLE MORE SKYCOVER TODAY.

TODAY...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER. THE THICKER SKYCOVER FROM FAR
SE PA AND SNJ SOUTHWARD. SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP TOWARD 6 PM OVER
TALBOT/CAROLINE AND SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTIES ON THE SW EDGE OF OUR
FCST AREA. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE A 1/3RD BLEND OF THE
00Z/25 GFS/NAM MOS AND 00Z/25 ECMWF 2M TEMPS. THE ECMWF IS QUITE
COOL UNDER THE CLOUDS OVER THE DELMARVA AND HAVE MODIFIED THE
NCEP MOS DOWNWARD THERE. WARMEST TEMPS IN OUR FCST AREA TODAY
SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN NJ WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NICE DAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND THAN THE PREVIOUS WED-THU-FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS.

DAYTIMES TEMPS WILL BE WARMING A BIT EXCEPT THE DELMARVA WHERE IT
WILL BE CHILLY TODAY AND MAXIMUM TEMPS ALMOST 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WHILE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND ALLENTOWN AND MOUNT
POCONO NEWD THROUGH NNJ SHOULD ONLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL BE FORMING JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN PA AND NNJ BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP COASTAL NJ
AND COASTAL DE. WINDS ON THE DELMARVA WILL BE LIGHT WHERE LESS
MIXING IS EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVIER SKYCOVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...THICK HIGH CLOUD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-78, WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST RAIN SHIELD A BLEND OF HPC QPF, 50 50
00Z/25 NAM/GFS MOS AND MULTI MODEL .10 IN 6 HRS. THAT MEANS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERNMOST 40 MILES OF OUR CWA, TALBOT COUNTY, QUEEN ANNES
AND CAROLINE COUNTIES IN MD AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE, POSSIBLY KENT
COUNTY DE AND POSSIBLY THE SRN TIP OF NJ. THIS CLOUD COVER TODAY
AND CLOUD COVER/RAIN TONIGHT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REDEVELOPING
NEAR THE NC COAST. A WIND SHIFT FROM LIGHT WEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST
PROGRESSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE NIGHT.

PATCHY FROST IS IN THE FCST N OF I-78 TONIGHT. NO NEW FROST ADVY
ATTM DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THICK CLOUD
COVER. IT ALREADY FROZE UP THERE THIS MORNING SO EARLY SUSCEPTIBLE
BLOOMS WERE PROBABLY DAMAGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING AND
ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINS WILL BE AFFECTING THE SRN
PARTS OF OUR AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL PULL AWAY BY EVENING WITH
PERHAPS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL.

COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE ROTATES A FEW SHORT WAVES AND SFC TROUGHS ACROSS THE
AREA. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH CHC POPS. DRIER AIR
ARRIVES TUE...BUT STILL A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER FAR NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MON/TUE...WITH
TUE LIKELY THE MILDER DAY.

THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS BOTH SHOW ANOTHER SFC/UPPER LOW STRENGTHENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOVING NORTHEAST...JUST EAST OF
OUR AREA. IT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF CLOUDS AND
RAINS S/E FOR THU AND INTO EARLY FRI. ANY CHANGES WITH THE TRACK
COULD BRING SOME HEAVIER RAINS TO THE AREA. WE HAVE JUST USED THE
WPC POPS FOR NOW...MOSTLY CHC (THU) AND SLGT CHC (THU NIGHT).
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE/LATE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...BKN CIGS AOA 12000 FT DEVELOPING SOUTH PORTION MAY BRIEFLY
THIN LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHER THINNER CLOUDS KABE NORTHWARD.

LIGHT WEST - NORTHWEST WIND WIND BECOMING WEST MIDDAY WITH GUSTS
TO 15 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN NJ/PA BUT SEABREEZES
DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS MID AND LATE AFTN.

TONIGHT...CIGS AOA 8000 FT, ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z/26. A SPRINKLE
POSSIBLE KPHL/KILG/KMIV KACY BUT NOT IN THE FCST ATTM. IT MAY BE
TOO DRY IN THE LAYER UNDER 8000 FT. LIGHT WEST WIND SHIFTING N-NE
DURING THE NIGHT. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS AS A WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, AS ANY SUB-VFR IN RAIN TO START
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED; ALTHOUGH, CONDITIONS
MAY DETERIORATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
BACKING TO WESTERLY MIDDAY THEN SEA BREEZES DURING MID - LATE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING N-NE LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. RAIN SOUTH.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY SUB-SCA BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 KTS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS. TUE THRU WED...MOSTLY SUB SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES ONCE AGAIN RANGING FROM 20 TO 35 PERCENT NORTH TO SOUTH.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY
NEAR OR BELOW 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. NO ACTION ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060>062-
     101>106.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012-013-015>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ014-023>026.
DE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 632
SHORT TERM...DRAG 632
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 632
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 632
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 251033
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
633 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS OUR AREA EARLY TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.
THAT LOW BECOMES PART OF LARGE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT EMERGES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND HEADS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
630 AM PACKAGE: FROST/FREEZE HAZARD WILL BE DISCONTINUED BY 8 AM.
APPEARS TO HAVE VERIFIED WELL.

BASED ON 06Z NCEP MODELS...NO SIG CHANGE TO THE FCST ISSUED AT
330 AM. I DID ADD A LITTLE MORE SKYCOVER TODAY.

TODAY...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER. THE THICKER SKYCOVER FROM FAR
SE PA AND SNJ SOUTHWARD. SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP TOWARD 6 PM OVER
TALBOT/CAROLINE AND SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTIES ON THE SW EDGE OF OUR
FCST AREA. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE A 1/3RD BLEND OF THE
00Z/25 GFS/NAM MOS AND 00Z/25 ECMWF 2M TEMPS. THE ECMWF IS QUITE
COOL UNDER THE CLOUDS OVER THE DELMARVA AND HAVE MODIFIED THE
NCEP MOS DOWNWARD THERE. WARMEST TEMPS IN OUR FCST AREA TODAY
SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN NJ WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NICE DAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND THAN THE PREVIOUS WED-THU-FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS.

DAYTIMES TEMPS WILL BE WARMING A BIT EXCEPT THE DELMARVA WHERE IT
WILL BE CHILLY TODAY AND MAXIMUM TEMPS ALMOST 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WHILE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND ALLENTOWN AND MOUNT
POCONO NEWD THROUGH NNJ SHOULD ONLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL BE FORMING JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN PA AND NNJ BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP COASTAL NJ
AND COASTAL DE. WINDS ON THE DELMARVA WILL BE LIGHT WHERE LESS
MIXING IS EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVIER SKYCOVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...THICK HIGH CLOUD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-78, WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST RAIN SHIELD A BLEND OF HPC QPF, 50 50
00Z/25 NAM/GFS MOS AND MULTI MODEL .10 IN 6 HRS. THAT MEANS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERNMOST 40 MILES OF OUR CWA, TALBOT COUNTY, QUEEN ANNES
AND CAROLINE COUNTIES IN MD AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE, POSSIBLY KENT
COUNTY DE AND POSSIBLY THE SRN TIP OF NJ. THIS CLOUD COVER TODAY
AND CLOUD COVER/RAIN TONIGHT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REDEVELOPING
NEAR THE NC COAST. A WIND SHIFT FROM LIGHT WEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST
PROGRESSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE NIGHT.

PATCHY FROST IS IN THE FCST N OF I-78 TONIGHT. NO NEW FROST ADVY
ATTM DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THICK CLOUD
COVER. IT ALREADY FROZE UP THERE THIS MORNING SO EARLY SUSCEPTIBLE
BLOOMS WERE PROBABLY DAMAGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING AND
ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINS WILL BE AFFECTING THE SRN
PARTS OF OUR AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL PULL AWAY BY EVENING WITH
PERHAPS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL.

COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE ROTATES A FEW SHORT WAVES AND SFC TROUGHS ACROSS THE
AREA. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH CHC POPS. DRIER AIR
ARRIVES TUE...BUT STILL A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER FAR NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MON/TUE...WITH
TUE LIKELY THE MILDER DAY.

THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS BOTH SHOW ANOTHER SFC/UPPER LOW STRENGTHENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOVING NORTHEAST...JUST EAST OF
OUR AREA. IT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF CLOUDS AND
RAINS S/E FOR THU AND INTO EARLY FRI. ANY CHANGES WITH THE TRACK
COULD BRING SOME HEAVIER RAINS TO THE AREA. WE HAVE JUST USED THE
WPC POPS FOR NOW...MOSTLY CHC (THU) AND SLGT CHC (THU NIGHT).
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE/LATE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...BKN CIGS AOA 12000 FT DEVELOPING SOUTH PORTION MAY BRIEFLY
THIN LATE IN THE DAY.  HIGHER THINNER CLOUDS KABE NORTHWARD.

LIGHT WEST - NORTHWEST WIND WIND BECOMING WEST MIDDAY WITH GUSTS
TO 15 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN NJ/PA BUT SEABREEZES
DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS MID AND LATE AFTN.

TONIGHT...CIGS AOA 8000 FT, ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z/26. A SPRINKLE
POSSIBLE KPHL/KILG/KMIV KACY BUT NOT IN THE FCST ATTM. IT MAY BE
TOO DRY IN THE LAYER UNDER 8000 FT. LIGHT WEST WIND SHIFTING N-NE
DURING THE NIGHT. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS AS A WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, AS ANY SUB-VFR IN RAIN TO START
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED; ALTHOUGH, CONDITIONS
MAY DETERIORATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTH WINDS
BACKING TO WESTERLY MIDDAY THEN SEA BREEZES DURING MID - LATE
AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOMING N-NE LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. RAIN SOUTH.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY SUB-SCA BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND
25 KTS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS. TUE THRU WED...MOSTLY SUB SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES ONCE AGAIN RANGING FROM 20 TO 35 PERCENT NORTH TO SOUTH.
HOWEVER, WINDS WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY
NEAR OR BELOW 15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY. NO ACTION ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060>062-
     101>106.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012-013-015>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ014-023>026.
DE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG 632
SHORT TERM...DRAG 632
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA 632
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA 632
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 250753
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
353 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS OUR AREA EARLY TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.
THAT LOW BECOMES PART OF LARGE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT EMERGES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND HEADS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM PACKAGE: NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FROST/FREEZE HAZARD AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING VARIES BASED ON THE SFC WIND STIRRING BUT
OVERALL...THE ADVY/WARNING IS REASONABLE AND VERIFYING.

TODAY...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER. THE THICKER SKYCOVER FROM FAR
SE PA AND SNJ SOUTHWARD. SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP TOWARD 6 PM OVER
TALBOT/CAROLINE AND SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTIES ON THE SW EDGE OF OUR
FCST AREA. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE A 1/3RD BLEND OF THE
00Z/25 GFS/NAM MOS AND 00Z/25 ECMWF 2M TEMPS. THE ECMWF IS QUITE
COOL UNDER THE CLOUDS OVER THE DELMARVA AND HAVE MODIFIED THE
NCEP MOS DOWNWARD THERE. WARMEST TEMPS IN OUR FCST AREA TODAY
SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN NJ WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NICE DAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND THAN THE PREVIOUS WED-THU-FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS.

DAYTIMES TEMPS WILL BE WARMING A BIT EXCEPT THE DELMARVA WHERE IT
WILL BE CHILLY TODAY AND MAXIMUM TEMPS ALMOST 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WHILE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND ALLENTOWN AND MOUNT
POCONO NEWD THROUGH NNJ SHOULD ONLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL BE FORMING JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN PA AND NNJ BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP COASTAL NJ
AND COASTAL DE. WINDS ON THE DELMARVA WILL BE LIGHT WHERE LESS
MIXING IS EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVIER SKYCOVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...THICK HIGH CLOUD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-78, WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST RAIN SHIELD A BLEND OF HPC QPF, 50 50
00Z/25 NAM/GFS MOS AND MULTI MODEL .10 IN 6 HRS. THAT MEANS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERNMOST 40 MILES OF OUR CWA, TALBOT COUNTY, QUEEN ANNES
AND CAROLINE COUNTIES IN MD AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE, POSSIBLY KENT
COUNTY DE AND POSSIBLY THE SRN TIP OF NJ. THIS CLOUD COVER TODAY
AND CLOUD COVER/RAIN TONIGHT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REDEVELOPING
NEAR THE NC COAST. A WIND SHIFT FROM LIGHT WEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST
PROGRESSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE NIGHT.

PATCHY FROST IS IN THE FCST N OF I-78 TONIGHT. NO NEW FROST ADVY
ATTM DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THICK CLOUD
COVER. IT ALREADY FROZE UP THERE THIS MORNING SO EARLY SUSCEPTIBLE
BLOOMS WERE PROBABLY DAMAGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING AND
ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINS WILL BE AFFECTING THE SRN
PARTS OF OUR AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL PULL AWAY BY EVENING WITH
PERHAPS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL.

COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE ROTATES A FEW SHORT WAVES AND SFC TROUGHS ACROSS THE
AREA. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH CHC POPS. DRIER AIR
ARRIVES TUE...BUT STILL A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER FAR NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MON/TUE...WITH
TUE LIKELY THE MILDER DAY.

THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS BOTH SHOW ANOTHER SFC/UPPER LOW STRENGTHENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOVING NORTHEAST...JUST EAST OF
OUR AREA. IT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF CLOUDS AND
RAINS S/E FOR THU AND INTO EARLY FRI. ANY CHANGES WITH THE TRACK
COULD BRING SOME HEAVIER RAINS TO THE AREA. WE HAVE JUST USED THE
WPF POPS FOR NOW...MOSTLY CHC (THU) AND SLGT CHC (THU NIGHT).
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE/LATE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT ARRIVING
SE PA AND S NJ SOUTHWARD AFTER 09Z. LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST WIND.

TODAY DURING THE DAY...SCT-BKN AOA 15000 FT MAY BRIEFLY THIN LATE
IN THE DAY. LIGHT WEST - NORTHWEST WIND BECOMING WEST MIDDAY WITH
GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN NJ/PA BUT SEABREEZES
DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS MID AND LATE AFTN.

TONIGHT...CIGS AOA 10000 FT, ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z/26. A SPRINKLE
POSSIBLE KPHL/KILG/KMIV KACY BUT NOT IN THE FCST ATTM. IT MAY BE
TOO DRY IN THE LAYER UNDER 8000 FT. LIGHT WEST WIND SHIFTING N-NE
DURING THE NIGHT. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS AS A WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, AS ANY SUB-VFR IN RAIN TO START
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED; ALTHOUGH, CONDITIONS
MAY DETERIORATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
DISCONTINUING SCA AT 330 AM. SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING WESTERLY
MIDDAY THEN SEA BREEZES DURING LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
BECOMING N-NE LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. RAIN SOUTH.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY AUB-ACA BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
 KTS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUE THRU WED...MOSTLY SUB SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES ONCE AGAIN RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER, WINDS
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW
15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.  NO ACTION ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060>062-
     101>106.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012-013-015>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ014-023>026.
DE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 250753
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
353 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS OUR AREA EARLY TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.
THAT LOW BECOMES PART OF LARGE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT EMERGES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND HEADS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM PACKAGE: NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FROST/FREEZE HAZARD AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING VARIES BASED ON THE SFC WIND STIRRING BUT
OVERALL...THE ADVY/WARNING IS REASONABLE AND VERIFYING.

TODAY...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER. THE THICKER SKYCOVER FROM FAR
SE PA AND SNJ SOUTHWARD. SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP TOWARD 6 PM OVER
TALBOT/CAROLINE AND SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTIES ON THE SW EDGE OF OUR
FCST AREA. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE A 1/3RD BLEND OF THE
00Z/25 GFS/NAM MOS AND 00Z/25 ECMWF 2M TEMPS. THE ECMWF IS QUITE
COOL UNDER THE CLOUDS OVER THE DELMARVA AND HAVE MODIFIED THE
NCEP MOS DOWNWARD THERE. WARMEST TEMPS IN OUR FCST AREA TODAY
SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN NJ WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NICE DAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND THAN THE PREVIOUS WED-THU-FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS.

DAYTIMES TEMPS WILL BE WARMING A BIT EXCEPT THE DELMARVA WHERE IT
WILL BE CHILLY TODAY AND MAXIMUM TEMPS ALMOST 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WHILE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND ALLENTOWN AND MOUNT
POCONO NEWD THROUGH NNJ SHOULD ONLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL BE FORMING JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN PA AND NNJ BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP COASTAL NJ
AND COASTAL DE. WINDS ON THE DELMARVA WILL BE LIGHT WHERE LESS
MIXING IS EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVIER SKYCOVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...THICK HIGH CLOUD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-78, WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST RAIN SHIELD A BLEND OF HPC QPF, 50 50
00Z/25 NAM/GFS MOS AND MULTI MODEL .10 IN 6 HRS. THAT MEANS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERNMOST 40 MILES OF OUR CWA, TALBOT COUNTY, QUEEN ANNES
AND CAROLINE COUNTIES IN MD AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE, POSSIBLY KENT
COUNTY DE AND POSSIBLY THE SRN TIP OF NJ. THIS CLOUD COVER TODAY
AND CLOUD COVER/RAIN TONIGHT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REDEVELOPING
NEAR THE NC COAST. A WIND SHIFT FROM LIGHT WEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST
PROGRESSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE NIGHT.

PATCHY FROST IS IN THE FCST N OF I-78 TONIGHT. NO NEW FROST ADVY
ATTM DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THICK CLOUD
COVER. IT ALREADY FROZE UP THERE THIS MORNING SO EARLY SUSCEPTIBLE
BLOOMS WERE PROBABLY DAMAGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING AND
ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINS WILL BE AFFECTING THE SRN
PARTS OF OUR AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL PULL AWAY BY EVENING WITH
PERHAPS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL.

COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE ROTATES A FEW SHORT WAVES AND SFC TROUGHS ACROSS THE
AREA. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH CHC POPS. DRIER AIR
ARRIVES TUE...BUT STILL A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER FAR NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MON/TUE...WITH
TUE LIKELY THE MILDER DAY.

THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS BOTH SHOW ANOTHER SFC/UPPER LOW STRENGTHENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOVING NORTHEAST...JUST EAST OF
OUR AREA. IT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF CLOUDS AND
RAINS S/E FOR THU AND INTO EARLY FRI. ANY CHANGES WITH THE TRACK
COULD BRING SOME HEAVIER RAINS TO THE AREA. WE HAVE JUST USED THE
WPF POPS FOR NOW...MOSTLY CHC (THU) AND SLGT CHC (THU NIGHT).
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE/LATE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT ARRIVING
SE PA AND S NJ SOUTHWARD AFTER 09Z. LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST WIND.

TODAY DURING THE DAY...SCT-BKN AOA 15000 FT MAY BRIEFLY THIN LATE
IN THE DAY. LIGHT WEST - NORTHWEST WIND BECOMING WEST MIDDAY WITH
GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN NJ/PA BUT SEABREEZES
DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS MID AND LATE AFTN.

TONIGHT...CIGS AOA 10000 FT, ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z/26. A SPRINKLE
POSSIBLE KPHL/KILG/KMIV KACY BUT NOT IN THE FCST ATTM. IT MAY BE
TOO DRY IN THE LAYER UNDER 8000 FT. LIGHT WEST WIND SHIFTING N-NE
DURING THE NIGHT. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS AS A WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, AS ANY SUB-VFR IN RAIN TO START
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED; ALTHOUGH, CONDITIONS
MAY DETERIORATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
DISCONTINUING SCA AT 330 AM. SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING WESTERLY
MIDDAY THEN SEA BREEZES DURING LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
BECOMING N-NE LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. RAIN SOUTH.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY AUB-ACA BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
 KTS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUE THRU WED...MOSTLY SUB SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES ONCE AGAIN RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER, WINDS
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW
15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.  NO ACTION ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060>062-
     101>106.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012-013-015>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ014-023>026.
DE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 250753
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
353 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS OUR AREA EARLY TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.
THAT LOW BECOMES PART OF LARGE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT EMERGES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND HEADS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM PACKAGE: NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FROST/FREEZE HAZARD AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING VARIES BASED ON THE SFC WIND STIRRING BUT
OVERALL...THE ADVY/WARNING IS REASONABLE AND VERIFYING.

TODAY...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER. THE THICKER SKYCOVER FROM FAR
SE PA AND SNJ SOUTHWARD. SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP TOWARD 6 PM OVER
TALBOT/CAROLINE AND SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTIES ON THE SW EDGE OF OUR
FCST AREA. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE A 1/3RD BLEND OF THE
00Z/25 GFS/NAM MOS AND 00Z/25 ECMWF 2M TEMPS. THE ECMWF IS QUITE
COOL UNDER THE CLOUDS OVER THE DELMARVA AND HAVE MODIFIED THE
NCEP MOS DOWNWARD THERE. WARMEST TEMPS IN OUR FCST AREA TODAY
SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN NJ WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NICE DAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND THAN THE PREVIOUS WED-THU-FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS.

DAYTIMES TEMPS WILL BE WARMING A BIT EXCEPT THE DELMARVA WHERE IT
WILL BE CHILLY TODAY AND MAXIMUM TEMPS ALMOST 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WHILE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND ALLENTOWN AND MOUNT
POCONO NEWD THROUGH NNJ SHOULD ONLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL BE FORMING JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN PA AND NNJ BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP COASTAL NJ
AND COASTAL DE. WINDS ON THE DELMARVA WILL BE LIGHT WHERE LESS
MIXING IS EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVIER SKYCOVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...THICK HIGH CLOUD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-78, WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST RAIN SHIELD A BLEND OF HPC QPF, 50 50
00Z/25 NAM/GFS MOS AND MULTI MODEL .10 IN 6 HRS. THAT MEANS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERNMOST 40 MILES OF OUR CWA, TALBOT COUNTY, QUEEN ANNES
AND CAROLINE COUNTIES IN MD AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE, POSSIBLY KENT
COUNTY DE AND POSSIBLY THE SRN TIP OF NJ. THIS CLOUD COVER TODAY
AND CLOUD COVER/RAIN TONIGHT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REDEVELOPING
NEAR THE NC COAST. A WIND SHIFT FROM LIGHT WEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST
PROGRESSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE NIGHT.

PATCHY FROST IS IN THE FCST N OF I-78 TONIGHT. NO NEW FROST ADVY
ATTM DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THICK CLOUD
COVER. IT ALREADY FROZE UP THERE THIS MORNING SO EARLY SUSCEPTIBLE
BLOOMS WERE PROBABLY DAMAGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING AND
ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINS WILL BE AFFECTING THE SRN
PARTS OF OUR AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL PULL AWAY BY EVENING WITH
PERHAPS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL.

COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE ROTATES A FEW SHORT WAVES AND SFC TROUGHS ACROSS THE
AREA. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH CHC POPS. DRIER AIR
ARRIVES TUE...BUT STILL A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER FAR NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MON/TUE...WITH
TUE LIKELY THE MILDER DAY.

THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS BOTH SHOW ANOTHER SFC/UPPER LOW STRENGTHENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOVING NORTHEAST...JUST EAST OF
OUR AREA. IT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF CLOUDS AND
RAINS S/E FOR THU AND INTO EARLY FRI. ANY CHANGES WITH THE TRACK
COULD BRING SOME HEAVIER RAINS TO THE AREA. WE HAVE JUST USED THE
WPF POPS FOR NOW...MOSTLY CHC (THU) AND SLGT CHC (THU NIGHT).
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE/LATE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT ARRIVING
SE PA AND S NJ SOUTHWARD AFTER 09Z. LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST WIND.

TODAY DURING THE DAY...SCT-BKN AOA 15000 FT MAY BRIEFLY THIN LATE
IN THE DAY. LIGHT WEST - NORTHWEST WIND BECOMING WEST MIDDAY WITH
GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN NJ/PA BUT SEABREEZES
DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS MID AND LATE AFTN.

TONIGHT...CIGS AOA 10000 FT, ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z/26. A SPRINKLE
POSSIBLE KPHL/KILG/KMIV KACY BUT NOT IN THE FCST ATTM. IT MAY BE
TOO DRY IN THE LAYER UNDER 8000 FT. LIGHT WEST WIND SHIFTING N-NE
DURING THE NIGHT. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS AS A WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, AS ANY SUB-VFR IN RAIN TO START
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED; ALTHOUGH, CONDITIONS
MAY DETERIORATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
DISCONTINUING SCA AT 330 AM. SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING WESTERLY
MIDDAY THEN SEA BREEZES DURING LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
BECOMING N-NE LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. RAIN SOUTH.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY AUB-ACA BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
 KTS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUE THRU WED...MOSTLY SUB SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES ONCE AGAIN RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER, WINDS
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW
15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.  NO ACTION ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060>062-
     101>106.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012-013-015>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ014-023>026.
DE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 250753
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
353 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS OUR AREA EARLY TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.
THAT LOW BECOMES PART OF LARGE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT EMERGES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND HEADS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM PACKAGE: NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FROST/FREEZE HAZARD AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING VARIES BASED ON THE SFC WIND STIRRING BUT
OVERALL...THE ADVY/WARNING IS REASONABLE AND VERIFYING.

TODAY...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER. THE THICKER SKYCOVER FROM FAR
SE PA AND SNJ SOUTHWARD. SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP TOWARD 6 PM OVER
TALBOT/CAROLINE AND SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTIES ON THE SW EDGE OF OUR
FCST AREA. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE A 1/3RD BLEND OF THE
00Z/25 GFS/NAM MOS AND 00Z/25 ECMWF 2M TEMPS. THE ECMWF IS QUITE
COOL UNDER THE CLOUDS OVER THE DELMARVA AND HAVE MODIFIED THE
NCEP MOS DOWNWARD THERE. WARMEST TEMPS IN OUR FCST AREA TODAY
SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN NJ WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NICE DAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND THAN THE PREVIOUS WED-THU-FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS.

DAYTIMES TEMPS WILL BE WARMING A BIT EXCEPT THE DELMARVA WHERE IT
WILL BE CHILLY TODAY AND MAXIMUM TEMPS ALMOST 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WHILE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND ALLENTOWN AND MOUNT
POCONO NEWD THROUGH NNJ SHOULD ONLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL BE FORMING JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN PA AND NNJ BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP COASTAL NJ
AND COASTAL DE. WINDS ON THE DELMARVA WILL BE LIGHT WHERE LESS
MIXING IS EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVIER SKYCOVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...THICK HIGH CLOUD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-78, WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST RAIN SHIELD A BLEND OF HPC QPF, 50 50
00Z/25 NAM/GFS MOS AND MULTI MODEL .10 IN 6 HRS. THAT MEANS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERNMOST 40 MILES OF OUR CWA, TALBOT COUNTY, QUEEN ANNES
AND CAROLINE COUNTIES IN MD AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE, POSSIBLY KENT
COUNTY DE AND POSSIBLY THE SRN TIP OF NJ. THIS CLOUD COVER TODAY
AND CLOUD COVER/RAIN TONIGHT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REDEVELOPING
NEAR THE NC COAST. A WIND SHIFT FROM LIGHT WEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST
PROGRESSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE NIGHT.

PATCHY FROST IS IN THE FCST N OF I-78 TONIGHT. NO NEW FROST ADVY
ATTM DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THICK CLOUD
COVER. IT ALREADY FROZE UP THERE THIS MORNING SO EARLY SUSCEPTIBLE
BLOOMS WERE PROBABLY DAMAGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING AND
ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINS WILL BE AFFECTING THE SRN
PARTS OF OUR AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL PULL AWAY BY EVENING WITH
PERHAPS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL.

COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE ROTATES A FEW SHORT WAVES AND SFC TROUGHS ACROSS THE
AREA. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH CHC POPS. DRIER AIR
ARRIVES TUE...BUT STILL A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER FAR NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MON/TUE...WITH
TUE LIKELY THE MILDER DAY.

THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS BOTH SHOW ANOTHER SFC/UPPER LOW STRENGTHENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOVING NORTHEAST...JUST EAST OF
OUR AREA. IT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF CLOUDS AND
RAINS S/E FOR THU AND INTO EARLY FRI. ANY CHANGES WITH THE TRACK
COULD BRING SOME HEAVIER RAINS TO THE AREA. WE HAVE JUST USED THE
WPF POPS FOR NOW...MOSTLY CHC (THU) AND SLGT CHC (THU NIGHT).
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE/LATE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT ARRIVING
SE PA AND S NJ SOUTHWARD AFTER 09Z. LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST WIND.

TODAY DURING THE DAY...SCT-BKN AOA 15000 FT MAY BRIEFLY THIN LATE
IN THE DAY. LIGHT WEST - NORTHWEST WIND BECOMING WEST MIDDAY WITH
GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN NJ/PA BUT SEABREEZES
DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS MID AND LATE AFTN.

TONIGHT...CIGS AOA 10000 FT, ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z/26. A SPRINKLE
POSSIBLE KPHL/KILG/KMIV KACY BUT NOT IN THE FCST ATTM. IT MAY BE
TOO DRY IN THE LAYER UNDER 8000 FT. LIGHT WEST WIND SHIFTING N-NE
DURING THE NIGHT. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS AS A WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, AS ANY SUB-VFR IN RAIN TO START
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED; ALTHOUGH, CONDITIONS
MAY DETERIORATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
DISCONTINUING SCA AT 330 AM. SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING WESTERLY
MIDDAY THEN SEA BREEZES DURING LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
BECOMING N-NE LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. RAIN SOUTH.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY AUB-ACA BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
 KTS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUE THRU WED...MOSTLY SUB SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES ONCE AGAIN RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER, WINDS
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW
15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.  NO ACTION ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060>062-
     101>106.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012-013-015>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ014-023>026.
DE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 250753
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
353 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS OUR AREA EARLY TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.
THAT LOW BECOMES PART OF LARGE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT EMERGES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND HEADS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM PACKAGE: NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FROST/FREEZE HAZARD AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING VARIES BASED ON THE SFC WIND STIRRING BUT
OVERALL...THE ADVY/WARNING IS REASONABLE AND VERIFYING.

TODAY...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER. THE THICKER SKYCOVER FROM FAR
SE PA AND SNJ SOUTHWARD. SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP TOWARD 6 PM OVER
TALBOT/CAROLINE AND SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTIES ON THE SW EDGE OF OUR
FCST AREA. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE A 1/3RD BLEND OF THE
00Z/25 GFS/NAM MOS AND 00Z/25 ECMWF 2M TEMPS. THE ECMWF IS QUITE
COOL UNDER THE CLOUDS OVER THE DELMARVA AND HAVE MODIFIED THE
NCEP MOS DOWNWARD THERE. WARMEST TEMPS IN OUR FCST AREA TODAY
SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN NJ WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NICE DAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND THAN THE PREVIOUS WED-THU-FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS.

DAYTIMES TEMPS WILL BE WARMING A BIT EXCEPT THE DELMARVA WHERE IT
WILL BE CHILLY TODAY AND MAXIMUM TEMPS ALMOST 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WHILE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND ALLENTOWN AND MOUNT
POCONO NEWD THROUGH NNJ SHOULD ONLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL BE FORMING JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN PA AND NNJ BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP COASTAL NJ
AND COASTAL DE. WINDS ON THE DELMARVA WILL BE LIGHT WHERE LESS
MIXING IS EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVIER SKYCOVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...THICK HIGH CLOUD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-78, WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST RAIN SHIELD A BLEND OF HPC QPF, 50 50
00Z/25 NAM/GFS MOS AND MULTI MODEL .10 IN 6 HRS. THAT MEANS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERNMOST 40 MILES OF OUR CWA, TALBOT COUNTY, QUEEN ANNES
AND CAROLINE COUNTIES IN MD AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE, POSSIBLY KENT
COUNTY DE AND POSSIBLY THE SRN TIP OF NJ. THIS CLOUD COVER TODAY
AND CLOUD COVER/RAIN TONIGHT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REDEVELOPING
NEAR THE NC COAST. A WIND SHIFT FROM LIGHT WEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST
PROGRESSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE NIGHT.

PATCHY FROST IS IN THE FCST N OF I-78 TONIGHT. NO NEW FROST ADVY
ATTM DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THICK CLOUD
COVER. IT ALREADY FROZE UP THERE THIS MORNING SO EARLY SUSCEPTIBLE
BLOOMS WERE PROBABLY DAMAGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING AND
ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINS WILL BE AFFECTING THE SRN
PARTS OF OUR AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL PULL AWAY BY EVENING WITH
PERHAPS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL.

COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE ROTATES A FEW SHORT WAVES AND SFC TROUGHS ACROSS THE
AREA. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH CHC POPS. DRIER AIR
ARRIVES TUE...BUT STILL A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER FAR NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MON/TUE...WITH
TUE LIKELY THE MILDER DAY.

THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS BOTH SHOW ANOTHER SFC/UPPER LOW STRENGTHENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOVING NORTHEAST...JUST EAST OF
OUR AREA. IT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF CLOUDS AND
RAINS S/E FOR THU AND INTO EARLY FRI. ANY CHANGES WITH THE TRACK
COULD BRING SOME HEAVIER RAINS TO THE AREA. WE HAVE JUST USED THE
WPF POPS FOR NOW...MOSTLY CHC (THU) AND SLGT CHC (THU NIGHT).
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE/LATE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT ARRIVING
SE PA AND S NJ SOUTHWARD AFTER 09Z. LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST WIND.

TODAY DURING THE DAY...SCT-BKN AOA 15000 FT MAY BRIEFLY THIN LATE
IN THE DAY. LIGHT WEST - NORTHWEST WIND BECOMING WEST MIDDAY WITH
GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN NJ/PA BUT SEABREEZES
DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS MID AND LATE AFTN.

TONIGHT...CIGS AOA 10000 FT, ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z/26. A SPRINKLE
POSSIBLE KPHL/KILG/KMIV KACY BUT NOT IN THE FCST ATTM. IT MAY BE
TOO DRY IN THE LAYER UNDER 8000 FT. LIGHT WEST WIND SHIFTING N-NE
DURING THE NIGHT. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS AS A WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, AS ANY SUB-VFR IN RAIN TO START
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED; ALTHOUGH, CONDITIONS
MAY DETERIORATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
DISCONTINUING SCA AT 330 AM. SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING WESTERLY
MIDDAY THEN SEA BREEZES DURING LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
BECOMING N-NE LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. RAIN SOUTH.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY AUB-ACA BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
 KTS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUE THRU WED...MOSTLY SUB SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES ONCE AGAIN RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER, WINDS
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW
15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.  NO ACTION ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060>062-
     101>106.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012-013-015>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ014-023>026.
DE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 250753
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
353 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS OUR AREA EARLY TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.
THAT LOW BECOMES PART OF LARGE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT EMERGES OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND HEADS NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
330 AM PACKAGE: NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FROST/FREEZE HAZARD AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING VARIES BASED ON THE SFC WIND STIRRING BUT
OVERALL...THE ADVY/WARNING IS REASONABLE AND VERIFYING.

TODAY...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER. THE THICKER SKYCOVER FROM FAR
SE PA AND SNJ SOUTHWARD. SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP TOWARD 6 PM OVER
TALBOT/CAROLINE AND SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTIES ON THE SW EDGE OF OUR
FCST AREA. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE A 1/3RD BLEND OF THE
00Z/25 GFS/NAM MOS AND 00Z/25 ECMWF 2M TEMPS. THE ECMWF IS QUITE
COOL UNDER THE CLOUDS OVER THE DELMARVA AND HAVE MODIFIED THE
NCEP MOS DOWNWARD THERE. WARMEST TEMPS IN OUR FCST AREA TODAY
SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN NJ WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NICE DAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND THAN THE PREVIOUS WED-THU-FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS.

DAYTIMES TEMPS WILL BE WARMING A BIT EXCEPT THE DELMARVA WHERE IT
WILL BE CHILLY TODAY AND MAXIMUM TEMPS ALMOST 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WHILE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND ALLENTOWN AND MOUNT
POCONO NEWD THROUGH NNJ SHOULD ONLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL BE FORMING JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN PA AND NNJ BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP COASTAL NJ
AND COASTAL DE. WINDS ON THE DELMARVA WILL BE LIGHT WHERE LESS
MIXING IS EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVIER SKYCOVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
TONIGHT...THICK HIGH CLOUD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-78, WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST RAIN SHIELD A BLEND OF HPC QPF, 50 50
00Z/25 NAM/GFS MOS AND MULTI MODEL .10 IN 6 HRS. THAT MEANS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERNMOST 40 MILES OF OUR CWA, TALBOT COUNTY, QUEEN ANNES
AND CAROLINE COUNTIES IN MD AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE, POSSIBLY KENT
COUNTY DE AND POSSIBLY THE SRN TIP OF NJ. THIS CLOUD COVER TODAY
AND CLOUD COVER/RAIN TONIGHT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REDEVELOPING
NEAR THE NC COAST. A WIND SHIFT FROM LIGHT WEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST
PROGRESSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE NIGHT.

PATCHY FROST IS IN THE FCST N OF I-78 TONIGHT. NO NEW FROST ADVY
ATTM DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THICK CLOUD
COVER. IT ALREADY FROZE UP THERE THIS MORNING SO EARLY SUSCEPTIBLE
BLOOMS WERE PROBABLY DAMAGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OFFSHORE SUNDAY MORNING AND
ITS ASSOCIATED CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAINS WILL BE AFFECTING THE SRN
PARTS OF OUR AREA. SOME LIGHT RAIN WILL PULL AWAY BY EVENING WITH
PERHAPS UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE...PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY NORTH AND CENTRAL AREAS WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
NORMAL.

COOLER AIR ARRIVES FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE LARGE UPPER LOW
OFFSHORE ROTATES A FEW SHORT WAVES AND SFC TROUGHS ACROSS THE
AREA. SCT SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH CHC POPS. DRIER AIR
ARRIVES TUE...BUT STILL A SLGT CHC FOR A SHOWER FAR NORTH.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MON/TUE...WITH
TUE LIKELY THE MILDER DAY.

THE ECMWF/GFS MODELS BOTH SHOW ANOTHER SFC/UPPER LOW STRENGTHENING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOVING NORTHEAST...JUST EAST OF
OUR AREA. IT APPEARS TO BE ANOTHER GLANCING SHOT OF CLOUDS AND
RAINS S/E FOR THU AND INTO EARLY FRI. ANY CHANGES WITH THE TRACK
COULD BRING SOME HEAVIER RAINS TO THE AREA. WE HAVE JUST USED THE
WPF POPS FOR NOW...MOSTLY CHC (THU) AND SLGT CHC (THU NIGHT).
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE MIDDLE/LATE PART
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT ARRIVING
SE PA AND S NJ SOUTHWARD AFTER 09Z. LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST WIND.

TODAY DURING THE DAY...SCT-BKN AOA 15000 FT MAY BRIEFLY THIN LATE
IN THE DAY. LIGHT WEST - NORTHWEST WIND BECOMING WEST MIDDAY WITH
GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN NJ/PA BUT SEABREEZES
DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS MID AND LATE AFTN.

TONIGHT...CIGS AOA 10000 FT, ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z/26. A SPRINKLE
POSSIBLE KPHL/KILG/KMIV KACY BUT NOT IN THE FCST ATTM. IT MAY BE
TOO DRY IN THE LAYER UNDER 8000 FT. LIGHT WEST WIND SHIFTING N-NE
DURING THE NIGHT. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS AS A WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, AS ANY SUB-VFR IN RAIN TO START
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED; ALTHOUGH, CONDITIONS
MAY DETERIORATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
DISCONTINUING SCA AT 330 AM. SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING WESTERLY
MIDDAY THEN SEA BREEZES DURING LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
BECOMING N-NE LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS. RAIN SOUTH.
MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY AUB-ACA BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 25
 KTS POSSIBLE. SCATTERED SHOWERS.
TUE THRU WED...MOSTLY SUB SCA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES ONCE AGAIN RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER, WINDS
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW
15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.  NO ACTION ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060>062-
     101>106.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012-013-015>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ014-023>026.
DE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
FIRE WEATHER...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 250659
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
259 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS OUR AREA EARLY TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.
THAT LOW BECOMES PART OF LARGE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT EMERGES OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND HEADS
NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
330 AM PACKAGE: NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FROST/FREEZE HAZARD AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING VARIES BASED ON THE SFC WIND STIRRING BUT
OVERALL...THE ADVY/WARNING IS REASONABLE AND VERIFYING.

TODAY...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER. THE THICKER SKYCOVER FROM FAR
SE PA AND SNJ SOUTHWARD. SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP TOWARD 6 PM OVER
TALBOT/CAROLINE AND SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTIES ON THE SW EDGE OF OUR
FCST AREA. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE A 1/3RD BLEND OF THE
00Z/25 GFS/NAM MOS AND 00Z/25 ECMWF 2M TEMPS. THE ECMWF IS QUITE
COOL UNDER THE CLOUDS OVER THE DELMARVA AND HAVE MODIFIED THE
NCEP MOS DOWNWARD THERE. WARMEST TEMPS IN OUR FCST AREA TODAY
SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN NJ WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NICE DAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND THAN THE PREVIOUS WED-THU-FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS.

DAYTIMES TEMPS WILL BE WARMING A BIT EXCEPT THE DELMARVA WHERE IT
WILL BE CHILLY TODAY AND MAXIMUM TEMPS ALMOST 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WHILE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND ALLENTOWN AND MOUNT
POCONO NEWD THROUGH NNJ SHOULD ONLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL BE FORMING JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN PA AND NNJ BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP COASTAL NJ
AND COASTAL DE. WINDS ON THE DELMARVA WILL BE LIGHT WHERE LESS
MIXING IS EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVIER SKYCOVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THICK HIGH CLOUD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-78, WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST RAIN SHIELD A BLEND OF HPC QPF, 50 50
00Z/25 NAM/GFS MOS AND MULTI MODEL .10 IN 6 HRS. THAT MEANS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERNMOST 40 MILES OF OUR CWA, TALBOT COUNTY, QUEEN ANNES
AND CAROLINE COUNTIES IN MD AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE, POSSIBLY KENT
COUNTY DE AND POSSIBLY THE SRN TIP OF NJ. THIS CLOUD COVER TODAY
AND CLOUD COVER/RAIN TONIGHT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REDEVELOPING
NEAR THE NC COAST. A WIND SHIFT FROM LIGHT WEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST
PROGRESSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE NIGHT.

PATCHY FROST IS IN THE FCST N OF I-78 TONIGHT. NO NEW FROST ADVY
ATTM DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THICK CLOUD
COVER. IT ALREADY FROZE UP THERE THIS MORNING SO EARLY SUSCEPTIBLE
BLOOMS WERE PROBABLY DAMAGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN EXIT EAST AND OUT TO SEA THROUGH THE
COURSE OF SUNDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LEFTOVER PRECIP THAT
LINGERS OVER THE DELMARVA INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND WE GRADUALLY
DIMINISH POPS TO CHANCE AND THEN LOWER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, A DRY SUNDAY IS ANTICIPATED
WITH SOME CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

MONDAY COULD PRESENT A FEW SHOWERS FOR OUR AREA AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE/UPPER LOW LINGERS AROUND THE NORTHEAST STATES OR JUST TO
THEIR EAST. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS PREDICT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
TO BE REACHED MONDAY, SO THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AS COOLER
AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW LINGERS NEARBY.

THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY OUT TO SEA INTO TUESDAY, AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION, LASTING
THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, WITH RATHER LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND NEAR AVERAGE END
OF APRIL TEMPERATURES. THE TRICKY AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN PART OF THE
FORECAST THEN INVOLVES THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A POTENTIALLY
STRONG COASTAL SYSTEM THAT MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FROM THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS TO VARIOUS ENSEMBLE DATA REGARDING THE TRACK, EVOLUTION, AND
INTENSIFICATION OF LOW PRESSURE, MOST LIKELY FROM AROUND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE ITS POTENTIAL
EMERGENCE OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. WITH THE GREATER UNCERTAINTY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WE LEANED MORE TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST
ELEMENTS, INCLUDING TEMPERATURES, WINDS, AND POPS, WITH ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT ARRIVING
SE PA AND S NJ SOUTHWARD AFTER 09Z. LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST WIND.

TODAY DURING THE DAY...SCT-BKN AOA 15000 FT MAY BRIEFLY THIN LATE
IN THE DAY. LIGHT WEST - NORTHWEST WIND BECOMING WEST MIDDAY WITH
GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN NJ/PA BUT SEABREEZES
DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS MID AND LATE AFTN.

TONIGHT...CIGS AOA 10000 FT, ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z/26. A SPRINKLE
POSSIBLE KPHL/KILG/KMIV KACY BUT NOT IN THE FCST ATTM. IT MAY BE
TOO DRY IN THE LAYER UNDER 8000 FT. LIGHT WEST WIND SHIFTING N-NE
DURING THE NIGHT. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS AS A WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, AS ANY SUB-VFR IN RAIN TO START
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED; ALTHOUGH, CONDITIONS
MAY DETERIORATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
DISCONTINUING SCA AT 330 AM. SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING WESTERLY
MIDDAY THEN SEA BREEZES DURING LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
BECOMING N-NE LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH, BUT IT
SHOULD NOT BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO RAISE WINDS OR SEAS TO SCA LEVELS.

MONDAY...CONTINUED MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS PLUS ARE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD; ALTHOUGH, SOME HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS MAY BEGIN TO OCCUR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF POSSIBLE
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES ONCE AGAIN RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER, WINDS
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW
15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.  NO ACTION ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060>062-
     101>106.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012-013-015>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ014-023>026.
DE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 3A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 3A
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE 3A
MARINE...DRAG/KLINE 3A
FIRE WEATHER...3A



000
FXUS61 KPHI 250659
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
259 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS OUR AREA EARLY TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.
THAT LOW BECOMES PART OF LARGE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT EMERGES OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND HEADS
NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
330 AM PACKAGE: NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FROST/FREEZE HAZARD AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING VARIES BASED ON THE SFC WIND STIRRING BUT
OVERALL...THE ADVY/WARNING IS REASONABLE AND VERIFYING.

TODAY...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER. THE THICKER SKYCOVER FROM FAR
SE PA AND SNJ SOUTHWARD. SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP TOWARD 6 PM OVER
TALBOT/CAROLINE AND SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTIES ON THE SW EDGE OF OUR
FCST AREA. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE A 1/3RD BLEND OF THE
00Z/25 GFS/NAM MOS AND 00Z/25 ECMWF 2M TEMPS. THE ECMWF IS QUITE
COOL UNDER THE CLOUDS OVER THE DELMARVA AND HAVE MODIFIED THE
NCEP MOS DOWNWARD THERE. WARMEST TEMPS IN OUR FCST AREA TODAY
SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN NJ WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NICE DAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND THAN THE PREVIOUS WED-THU-FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS.

DAYTIMES TEMPS WILL BE WARMING A BIT EXCEPT THE DELMARVA WHERE IT
WILL BE CHILLY TODAY AND MAXIMUM TEMPS ALMOST 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WHILE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND ALLENTOWN AND MOUNT
POCONO NEWD THROUGH NNJ SHOULD ONLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL BE FORMING JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN PA AND NNJ BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP COASTAL NJ
AND COASTAL DE. WINDS ON THE DELMARVA WILL BE LIGHT WHERE LESS
MIXING IS EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVIER SKYCOVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THICK HIGH CLOUD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-78, WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST RAIN SHIELD A BLEND OF HPC QPF, 50 50
00Z/25 NAM/GFS MOS AND MULTI MODEL .10 IN 6 HRS. THAT MEANS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERNMOST 40 MILES OF OUR CWA, TALBOT COUNTY, QUEEN ANNES
AND CAROLINE COUNTIES IN MD AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE, POSSIBLY KENT
COUNTY DE AND POSSIBLY THE SRN TIP OF NJ. THIS CLOUD COVER TODAY
AND CLOUD COVER/RAIN TONIGHT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REDEVELOPING
NEAR THE NC COAST. A WIND SHIFT FROM LIGHT WEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST
PROGRESSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE NIGHT.

PATCHY FROST IS IN THE FCST N OF I-78 TONIGHT. NO NEW FROST ADVY
ATTM DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THICK CLOUD
COVER. IT ALREADY FROZE UP THERE THIS MORNING SO EARLY SUSCEPTIBLE
BLOOMS WERE PROBABLY DAMAGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN EXIT EAST AND OUT TO SEA THROUGH THE
COURSE OF SUNDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LEFTOVER PRECIP THAT
LINGERS OVER THE DELMARVA INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND WE GRADUALLY
DIMINISH POPS TO CHANCE AND THEN LOWER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, A DRY SUNDAY IS ANTICIPATED
WITH SOME CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

MONDAY COULD PRESENT A FEW SHOWERS FOR OUR AREA AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE/UPPER LOW LINGERS AROUND THE NORTHEAST STATES OR JUST TO
THEIR EAST. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS PREDICT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
TO BE REACHED MONDAY, SO THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AS COOLER
AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW LINGERS NEARBY.

THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY OUT TO SEA INTO TUESDAY, AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION, LASTING
THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, WITH RATHER LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND NEAR AVERAGE END
OF APRIL TEMPERATURES. THE TRICKY AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN PART OF THE
FORECAST THEN INVOLVES THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A POTENTIALLY
STRONG COASTAL SYSTEM THAT MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FROM THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS TO VARIOUS ENSEMBLE DATA REGARDING THE TRACK, EVOLUTION, AND
INTENSIFICATION OF LOW PRESSURE, MOST LIKELY FROM AROUND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE ITS POTENTIAL
EMERGENCE OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. WITH THE GREATER UNCERTAINTY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WE LEANED MORE TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST
ELEMENTS, INCLUDING TEMPERATURES, WINDS, AND POPS, WITH ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT ARRIVING
SE PA AND S NJ SOUTHWARD AFTER 09Z. LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST WIND.

TODAY DURING THE DAY...SCT-BKN AOA 15000 FT MAY BRIEFLY THIN LATE
IN THE DAY. LIGHT WEST - NORTHWEST WIND BECOMING WEST MIDDAY WITH
GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN NJ/PA BUT SEABREEZES
DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS MID AND LATE AFTN.

TONIGHT...CIGS AOA 10000 FT, ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z/26. A SPRINKLE
POSSIBLE KPHL/KILG/KMIV KACY BUT NOT IN THE FCST ATTM. IT MAY BE
TOO DRY IN THE LAYER UNDER 8000 FT. LIGHT WEST WIND SHIFTING N-NE
DURING THE NIGHT. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS AS A WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, AS ANY SUB-VFR IN RAIN TO START
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED; ALTHOUGH, CONDITIONS
MAY DETERIORATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
DISCONTINUING SCA AT 330 AM. SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING WESTERLY
MIDDAY THEN SEA BREEZES DURING LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
BECOMING N-NE LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH, BUT IT
SHOULD NOT BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO RAISE WINDS OR SEAS TO SCA LEVELS.

MONDAY...CONTINUED MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS PLUS ARE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD; ALTHOUGH, SOME HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS MAY BEGIN TO OCCUR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF POSSIBLE
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES ONCE AGAIN RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER, WINDS
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW
15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.  NO ACTION ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060>062-
     101>106.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012-013-015>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ014-023>026.
DE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 3A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 3A
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE 3A
MARINE...DRAG/KLINE 3A
FIRE WEATHER...3A



000
FXUS61 KPHI 250659
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
259 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS OUR AREA EARLY TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.
THAT LOW BECOMES PART OF LARGE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT EMERGES OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND HEADS
NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
330 AM PACKAGE: NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FROST/FREEZE HAZARD AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING VARIES BASED ON THE SFC WIND STIRRING BUT
OVERALL...THE ADVY/WARNING IS REASONABLE AND VERIFYING.

TODAY...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER. THE THICKER SKYCOVER FROM FAR
SE PA AND SNJ SOUTHWARD. SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP TOWARD 6 PM OVER
TALBOT/CAROLINE AND SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTIES ON THE SW EDGE OF OUR
FCST AREA. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE A 1/3RD BLEND OF THE
00Z/25 GFS/NAM MOS AND 00Z/25 ECMWF 2M TEMPS. THE ECMWF IS QUITE
COOL UNDER THE CLOUDS OVER THE DELMARVA AND HAVE MODIFIED THE
NCEP MOS DOWNWARD THERE. WARMEST TEMPS IN OUR FCST AREA TODAY
SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN NJ WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NICE DAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND THAN THE PREVIOUS WED-THU-FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS.

DAYTIMES TEMPS WILL BE WARMING A BIT EXCEPT THE DELMARVA WHERE IT
WILL BE CHILLY TODAY AND MAXIMUM TEMPS ALMOST 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WHILE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND ALLENTOWN AND MOUNT
POCONO NEWD THROUGH NNJ SHOULD ONLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL BE FORMING JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN PA AND NNJ BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP COASTAL NJ
AND COASTAL DE. WINDS ON THE DELMARVA WILL BE LIGHT WHERE LESS
MIXING IS EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVIER SKYCOVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THICK HIGH CLOUD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-78, WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST RAIN SHIELD A BLEND OF HPC QPF, 50 50
00Z/25 NAM/GFS MOS AND MULTI MODEL .10 IN 6 HRS. THAT MEANS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERNMOST 40 MILES OF OUR CWA, TALBOT COUNTY, QUEEN ANNES
AND CAROLINE COUNTIES IN MD AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE, POSSIBLY KENT
COUNTY DE AND POSSIBLY THE SRN TIP OF NJ. THIS CLOUD COVER TODAY
AND CLOUD COVER/RAIN TONIGHT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REDEVELOPING
NEAR THE NC COAST. A WIND SHIFT FROM LIGHT WEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST
PROGRESSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE NIGHT.

PATCHY FROST IS IN THE FCST N OF I-78 TONIGHT. NO NEW FROST ADVY
ATTM DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THICK CLOUD
COVER. IT ALREADY FROZE UP THERE THIS MORNING SO EARLY SUSCEPTIBLE
BLOOMS WERE PROBABLY DAMAGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN EXIT EAST AND OUT TO SEA THROUGH THE
COURSE OF SUNDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LEFTOVER PRECIP THAT
LINGERS OVER THE DELMARVA INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND WE GRADUALLY
DIMINISH POPS TO CHANCE AND THEN LOWER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, A DRY SUNDAY IS ANTICIPATED
WITH SOME CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

MONDAY COULD PRESENT A FEW SHOWERS FOR OUR AREA AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE/UPPER LOW LINGERS AROUND THE NORTHEAST STATES OR JUST TO
THEIR EAST. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS PREDICT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
TO BE REACHED MONDAY, SO THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AS COOLER
AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW LINGERS NEARBY.

THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY OUT TO SEA INTO TUESDAY, AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION, LASTING
THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, WITH RATHER LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND NEAR AVERAGE END
OF APRIL TEMPERATURES. THE TRICKY AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN PART OF THE
FORECAST THEN INVOLVES THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A POTENTIALLY
STRONG COASTAL SYSTEM THAT MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FROM THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS TO VARIOUS ENSEMBLE DATA REGARDING THE TRACK, EVOLUTION, AND
INTENSIFICATION OF LOW PRESSURE, MOST LIKELY FROM AROUND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE ITS POTENTIAL
EMERGENCE OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. WITH THE GREATER UNCERTAINTY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WE LEANED MORE TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST
ELEMENTS, INCLUDING TEMPERATURES, WINDS, AND POPS, WITH ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT ARRIVING
SE PA AND S NJ SOUTHWARD AFTER 09Z. LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST WIND.

TODAY DURING THE DAY...SCT-BKN AOA 15000 FT MAY BRIEFLY THIN LATE
IN THE DAY. LIGHT WEST - NORTHWEST WIND BECOMING WEST MIDDAY WITH
GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN NJ/PA BUT SEABREEZES
DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS MID AND LATE AFTN.

TONIGHT...CIGS AOA 10000 FT, ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z/26. A SPRINKLE
POSSIBLE KPHL/KILG/KMIV KACY BUT NOT IN THE FCST ATTM. IT MAY BE
TOO DRY IN THE LAYER UNDER 8000 FT. LIGHT WEST WIND SHIFTING N-NE
DURING THE NIGHT. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS AS A WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, AS ANY SUB-VFR IN RAIN TO START
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED; ALTHOUGH, CONDITIONS
MAY DETERIORATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
DISCONTINUING SCA AT 330 AM. SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING WESTERLY
MIDDAY THEN SEA BREEZES DURING LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
BECOMING N-NE LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH, BUT IT
SHOULD NOT BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO RAISE WINDS OR SEAS TO SCA LEVELS.

MONDAY...CONTINUED MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS PLUS ARE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD; ALTHOUGH, SOME HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS MAY BEGIN TO OCCUR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF POSSIBLE
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES ONCE AGAIN RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER, WINDS
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW
15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.  NO ACTION ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060>062-
     101>106.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012-013-015>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ014-023>026.
DE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 3A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 3A
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE 3A
MARINE...DRAG/KLINE 3A
FIRE WEATHER...3A




000
FXUS61 KPHI 250659
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
259 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE COVERS OUR AREA EARLY TODAY. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL PASS OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST SUNDAY.
THAT LOW BECOMES PART OF LARGE LOW PRESSURE CIRCULATION OVER THE
NORTHWEST ATLANTIC EARLY NEXT WEEK. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER
THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT EMERGES OFF THE
SOUTHEASTERN SEABOARD LATE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND HEADS
NORTHEAST.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
330 AM PACKAGE: NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FROST/FREEZE HAZARD AS
RADIATIONAL COOLING VARIES BASED ON THE SFC WIND STIRRING BUT
OVERALL...THE ADVY/WARNING IS REASONABLE AND VERIFYING.

TODAY...VARIABLE HIGH CLOUD COVER. THE THICKER SKYCOVER FROM FAR
SE PA AND SNJ SOUTHWARD. SPRINKLES MAY DEVELOP TOWARD 6 PM OVER
TALBOT/CAROLINE AND SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTIES ON THE SW EDGE OF OUR
FCST AREA. FORECAST TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE A 1/3RD BLEND OF THE
00Z/25 GFS/NAM MOS AND 00Z/25 ECMWF 2M TEMPS. THE ECMWF IS QUITE
COOL UNDER THE CLOUDS OVER THE DELMARVA AND HAVE MODIFIED THE
NCEP MOS DOWNWARD THERE. WARMEST TEMPS IN OUR FCST AREA TODAY
SHOULD BE IN NORTHERN NJ WHERE THERE SHOULD BE MORE SUNSHINE.

A NICE DAY WITH MUCH LESS WIND THAN THE PREVIOUS WED-THU-FRIDAY
AFTERNOONS.

DAYTIMES TEMPS WILL BE WARMING A BIT EXCEPT THE DELMARVA WHERE IT
WILL BE CHILLY TODAY AND MAXIMUM TEMPS ALMOST 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL WHILE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES AROUND ALLENTOWN AND MOUNT
POCONO NEWD THROUGH NNJ SHOULD ONLY BE 8 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL.

A WEAK WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL BE FORMING JUST TO OUR NORTH LATE
IN THE DAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 15 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON IN PA AND NNJ BUT SEA BREEZES SHOULD DEVELOP COASTAL NJ
AND COASTAL DE. WINDS ON THE DELMARVA WILL BE LIGHT WHERE LESS
MIXING IS EXPECTED DUE TO HEAVIER SKYCOVER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
TONIGHT...THICK HIGH CLOUD ALONG AND SOUTH OF I-78, WITH THE NORTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST RAIN SHIELD A BLEND OF HPC QPF, 50 50
00Z/25 NAM/GFS MOS AND MULTI MODEL .10 IN 6 HRS. THAT MEANS MAINLY
THE SOUTHERNMOST 40 MILES OF OUR CWA, TALBOT COUNTY, QUEEN ANNES
AND CAROLINE COUNTIES IN MD AND SUSSEX COUNTY DE, POSSIBLY KENT
COUNTY DE AND POSSIBLY THE SRN TIP OF NJ. THIS CLOUD COVER TODAY
AND CLOUD COVER/RAIN TONIGHT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE LOW REDEVELOPING
NEAR THE NC COAST. A WIND SHIFT FROM LIGHT WEST TO NORTH-NORTHEAST
PROGRESSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THROUGH OUR CWA DURING THE NIGHT.

PATCHY FROST IS IN THE FCST N OF I-78 TONIGHT. NO NEW FROST ADVY
ATTM DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THICK CLOUD
COVER. IT ALREADY FROZE UP THERE THIS MORNING SO EARLY SUSCEPTIBLE
BLOOMS WERE PROBABLY DAMAGED.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN EXIT EAST AND OUT TO SEA THROUGH THE
COURSE OF SUNDAY, BUT THERE COULD BE SOME LEFTOVER PRECIP THAT
LINGERS OVER THE DELMARVA INTO SUNDAY MORNING, AND WE GRADUALLY
DIMINISH POPS TO CHANCE AND THEN LOWER THROUGH THIS PERIOD.
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA, A DRY SUNDAY IS ANTICIPATED
WITH SOME CLOUDS AND GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS.

MONDAY COULD PRESENT A FEW SHOWERS FOR OUR AREA AS AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE/UPPER LOW LINGERS AROUND THE NORTHEAST STATES OR JUST TO
THEIR EAST. MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS PREDICT CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES
TO BE REACHED MONDAY, SO THERE WILL BE INCREASING CLOUDS THROUGH THE
DAY ALONG WITH SOME ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED AS COOLER
AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LOW LINGERS NEARBY.

THE UPPER LOW PULLS AWAY OUT TO SEA INTO TUESDAY, AND WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE FROM THE WEST GRADUALLY BUILDS ACROSS OUR REGION, LASTING
THROUGH THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY. WE HAVE KEPT A DRY FORECAST THROUGH
THIS PERIOD, WITH RATHER LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS AND NEAR AVERAGE END
OF APRIL TEMPERATURES. THE TRICKY AND HIGHLY UNCERTAIN PART OF THE
FORECAST THEN INVOLVES THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF A POTENTIALLY
STRONG COASTAL SYSTEM THAT MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT OUR REGION WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH THURSDAY TO THURSDAY NIGHT. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE A WIDE RANGE OF SOLUTIONS FROM THE OPERATIONAL
MODELS TO VARIOUS ENSEMBLE DATA REGARDING THE TRACK, EVOLUTION, AND
INTENSIFICATION OF LOW PRESSURE, MOST LIKELY FROM AROUND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO REGION WEDNESDAY BEFORE ITS POTENTIAL
EMERGENCE OFF THE EAST COAST THURSDAY. WITH THE GREATER UNCERTAINTY
THROUGH THIS PERIOD, WE LEANED MORE TOWARD WPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST
ELEMENTS, INCLUDING TEMPERATURES, WINDS, AND POPS, WITH ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR CLEAR WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 15000 FT ARRIVING
SE PA AND S NJ SOUTHWARD AFTER 09Z. LIGHT NORTH NORTHWEST WIND.

TODAY DURING THE DAY...SCT-BKN AOA 15000 FT MAY BRIEFLY THIN LATE
IN THE DAY. LIGHT WEST - NORTHWEST WIND BECOMING WEST MIDDAY WITH
GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON IN NJ/PA BUT SEABREEZES
DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS MID AND LATE AFTN.

TONIGHT...CIGS AOA 10000 FT, ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z/26. A SPRINKLE
POSSIBLE KPHL/KILG/KMIV KACY BUT NOT IN THE FCST ATTM. IT MAY BE
TOO DRY IN THE LAYER UNDER 8000 FT. LIGHT WEST WIND SHIFTING N-NE
DURING THE NIGHT. PLEASE SEE TAFS FOR TIMING DETAILS AS A WIND
SHIFT BOUNDARY SAGS SOUTHWARD.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS, AS ANY SUB-VFR IN RAIN TO START
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS WILL IMPROVE BACK TO VFR.

MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE. GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS, WITH GUSTS TO 20 KNOTS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MAINLY VFR EXPECTED; ALTHOUGH, CONDITIONS
MAY DETERIORATE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND
TRACK OF A POSSIBLE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.MARINE...
DISCONTINUING SCA AT 330 AM. SUB SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT
WITH NORTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WINDS THIS MORNING BECOMING WESTERLY
MIDDAY THEN SEA BREEZES DURING LATE AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT
BECOMING N-NE LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO PASS BY TO OUR SOUTH, BUT IT
SHOULD NOT BE CLOSE ENOUGH TO RAISE WINDS OR SEAS TO SCA LEVELS.

MONDAY...CONTINUED MAINLY SUB-SCA CONDITIONS; ALTHOUGH, SOME WIND
GUSTS TO AROUND 20 KNOTS PLUS ARE POSSIBLE.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS
PERIOD; ALTHOUGH, SOME HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS MAY BEGIN TO OCCUR LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND TRACK OF POSSIBLE
COASTAL LOW PRESSURE. LOW CONFIDENCE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TODAY, WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES ONCE AGAIN RANGING FROM 20 TO 30 PERCENT. HOWEVER, WINDS
WILL BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER, WITH GUSTS GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW
15 MPH THROUGH THE DAY.  NO ACTION ATTM.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ060>062-
     101>106.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ070-071.
NJ...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010-
     012-013-015>022-027.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ014-023>026.
DE...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR DEZ001>004.
MD...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ008.
     FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ012-015-019-
     020.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 3A
SHORT TERM...DRAG 3A
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...DRAG/KLINE 3A
MARINE...DRAG/KLINE 3A
FIRE WEATHER...3A




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