000
FXUS61 KPHI 231443
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1043 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL SLOWLY
RECEDE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SLOWLY DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST FRIDAY AND
SLOWLY TRUNDLE NORTHEAST REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD EAST IN ITS WAKE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WITH THE MID-MORNING UPDATE, WE DECREASED POPS SOME FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA, BASED ON CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY AND THE LATEST HRRR GUIDANCE
WHICH LOOKS TO BE CAPTURING TRENDS TODAY FAIRLY WELL. WE ALSO
DECREASED T-STORM COVERAGE FROM SCATTERED TO ISOLATED UNTIL THIS
AFTERNOON. HOURLY TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED USING LAV/LAMP
GUIDANCE, AS TEMPS WERE RISING A LITTLE FASTER THAN FORECAST IN SOME
LOCATIONS. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES LOOK ON TRACK FOR NOW, CONSIDERING
THE CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, A FEW
BREAKS ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS OUR DELMARVA REGION, AND THIS MAY
ALLOW TEMPS TO RISE TO AROUND 80 DEGREES IN SOME LOCATIONS. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AND UPDATE MAX TEMPS AS NEEDED.

OTHERWISE, A RAINY PERIOD IS IN STORE TODAY AS SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT
LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY, WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT
THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND TOWARD OUR AREA LATER TODAY.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A PRE-FRONTAL, LEE-SIDE TROUGH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WHILE A SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX
MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE FOCUS FOR A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. THE SPC HAS
PLACED A PORTION OF THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA WHICH MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. BUT WE COULD STILL HAVE CAPE VALUES
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG, AND WITH SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30-40 KNOTS, WE
COULD HAVE A FEW STORMS BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
STRONG WINDS.

ANOTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 1.50-1.75 INCHES. THEREFORE, SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE RATHER EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. POOR DRAINAGE AND
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
IF ANY TRAINING OCCURS.

MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE WERE FAIRLY CLOSE, ALTHOUGH THE MAV WAS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER. WE USED A BLEND, WITH MAJORITY OF THE MAV MOS. THIS
WILL GIVE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S, AND IF THE SUN COMES
OUT AT ALL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME, A FEW AREAS COULD REACH
80 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS
OUR AREA AND THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DECREASE SOME AFTER SUNSET, BUT WITH MORE
PVA EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT,
ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL NOT CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT, MAY BE NEAR THE COAST BY
SUNRISE. WITH PW VALUES STILL AROUND 1.50-1.75 INCHES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SOME HEAVY RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEITHER THE GFS NOR WRF-NMMB LOOKED STELLAR OFF THEIR
INITIALIZATION. IN FACT A MODEL COMPROMISE SEEMED TO LOOK THE BEST.
OVERALL THOUGH THE DP/DT WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM WAS SLOWER AND
THIS FCST PACKAGE DID GO THAT WAY WITH A WETTER START TO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THIS PACKAGE IS CLOSE TO THE GEFS MEAN WHICH IS SLIGHTLY
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OP GFS AND CLOSEST TO A MODELING
CONSENSUS. THE MODEL 500MB PATTERN FORECAST IS ANOMALOUS FOR LATE
MAY, SO WE DID EDGE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS.

THE SLOWING FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR CWA AS WE START THE
LONG TERM. WITH THE TROF SHARPENING, IT BECOMES AN UNDERRUNNER WITH
INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT ALOFT EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING
OFFSHORE. WE INCLUDED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE MORNING, BUT
THEORETICALLY THUNDER COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON (FRI NIGHT OFF
THE PREVIOUS ECMWF). NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT TEMP FCST AS DAYTIME MAX
TEMP MAY BE DRIVEN BY HOW FAR TEMPS FALL BY 12Z FRIDAY. KIND OF
RARE TO HAVE TEMPS GO NOWHERE ON A MAY DAY (AND ALSO HAVE THE
CALENDAR DAY HIGH POSSIBLY OCCUR AT 101 AM) AND WE SHOWED A SLIGHT
BUMP UP FOR NOW.

AS THE TROF ALOFT CLOSES, MODEL DIAGS ARE SHOWING SOME RATHER ROBUST
MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE AND FGEN FORCING FORECAST AND A
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROWAL OVER OUR CWA WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE 250MB JET TO BOOT. ITS NO WONDER THAT QPF HAVE BECOME
WETTER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. IT STILL DEPENDS UPON HOW
QUICKLY AND FAR SOUTH THE 500MB LOW TRACKS. FOR NOW WE REMAIN MOST
CONFIDENT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA. WHILE POPS WERE
INCREASED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE BOARD, THE HIGHEST
REMAIN IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA. WITH ONLY THE ECMWF
SUPPORTING THUNDER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT (NONE OF THE MODELS DO ON
SATURDAY), WE PRECLUDED THEM. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
AS SATURDAY MOVES ALONG, BUT WITH OUR CWA REMAINING UNDER THE
CLOSED LOW, ITS GOING TO BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH SUNSHINE BEFORE WE SELF
DESTRUCT. MIN AND MAX TEMPS WERE EDGED LOWER AND CLOSE TO A STAT
GUIDANCE COMPROMISE.

WE KEPT IN PCPN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST AND KEPT SUNDAY
DRY. WE WILL STILL BE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE CLOSED LOW, SO
MORE SELF DESTRUCT SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FARTHER
NORTHEAST ONE IS WITHIN OUR CWA. WE SHOWED A TEMPERATURE IMPROVEMENT
VS SATURDAY, CONFIDENCE THOUGH IS NOT HIGH UNTIL THE MODEL TREND
SETTLES.

WE DID NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
WE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING
WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A CLOUDY, RAINY PERIOD EXPECTED TODAY AS SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS, ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. CEILINGS ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION ARE IN
THE MVFR RANGE, AND WE EXPECT THIS TREND TO HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF
THE DAY. AS MENTIONED, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE
THROUGH THE DAY AND COULD REDUCE VSBYS IF HEAVY ENOUGH. THERE IS
ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING, SO WE WILL KEEP THEM IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW.

THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA UNTIL OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER MORE AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT, AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT NORTHEASTERN
TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS. CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE AS SATURDAY
CONTINUES. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20 KTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS IN THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO NEAR 5-6 FEET TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
THE SCA FLAG HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY DAY FOR NOW. WINDS MAY
NOT BE A FACTOR, BUT SWELLS SHOULD REMAIN. THE INCREASING
NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON ALL OUR AREA WATERS LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT EVEN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MIGHT OCCUR FOR A TIME ON SATURDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS MIGHT LINGER ON THE OCEAN INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. AFTER THAT SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE COAST OF NEW JERSEY TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLINE/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON/O`HARA/KLINE
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...ROBERTSON/KLINE

000
FXUS61 KPHI 230759
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
359 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL SLOWLY
RECEDE TODAY AND TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING THROUGH THE
SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY WILL SLOWLY DRAG A COLD FRONT INTO AND THROUGH
THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL DEVELOP ON THE FRONT OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST FRIDAY AND
SLOWLY TRUNDLE NORTHEAST REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES ON
MONDAY. A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD EAST IN ITS WAKE EARLY
NEXT WEEK. A WARM FRONT IS FORECAST TO APPROACH AND MOVE THROUGH
THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RAINY PERIOD IN STORE TODAY AS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY. SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND
TODAY, WHICH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND
TOWARD OUR AREA LATER TODAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. A PRE-FRONTAL,
LEE-SIDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP DURING THE DAY WHILE A SHORT
WAVE/VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS THE AREA AS WELL. THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE
FOCUS FOR A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE DAY. THE
SPC HAS PLACED A PORTION OF THE AREA UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON. ONE LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE THE EXPECTED
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE AREA WHICH MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. BUT WE COULD STILL HAVE CAPE VALUES
AROUND 500-1000 J/KG, AND WITH SHEAR VALUES AROUND 30-40 KNOTS, WE
COULD HAVE A FEW STORMS BECOME ORGANIZED ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME
STRONG WINDS.

ANOTHER CONCERN TODAY WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL. PW VALUES ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 1.50-1.75 INCHES. THEREFORE, SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
COULD BE RATHER EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. POOR DRAINAGE AND
URBAN/SMALL STREAM FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY
IF ANY TRAINING OCCURS.

MAV/MET MOS GUIDANCE WERE FAIRLY CLOSE, ALTHOUGH THE MAV WAS
SLIGHTLY HIGHER. WE USED A BLEND, WITH MAJORITY OF THE MAV MOS. THIS
WILL GIVE HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID-UPPER 70S, AND IF THE SUN COMES
OUT AT ALL FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF TIME, A FEW AREAS COULD REACH
80.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA
BY WEDNESDAY EVENING AS THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY ACROSS
OUR AREA AND THE INITIAL SHORT WAVE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA.
INSTABILITY WILL LIKELY DECREASE SOME AFTER SUNSET, BUT WITH MORE
PVA EXPECTED TO TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT,
ALONG WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY, SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS COULD CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE FRONT
WILL NOT CLEAR THE ENTIRE AREA OVERNIGHT, MAY BE NEAR THE COAST BY
SUNRISE. WITH PW VALUES STILL AROUND 1.50-1.75 INCHES AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SOME HEAVY RAIN REMAINS POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NEITHER THE GFS NOR WRF-NMMB LOOKED STELLAR OFF THEIR
INITIALIZATION. IN FACT A MODEL COMPROMISE SEEMED TO LOOK THE BEST.
OVERALL THOUGH THE DP/DT WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM WAS SLOWER AND
THIS FCST PACKAGE DID GO THAT WAY WITH A WETTER START TO THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND. THIS PACKAGE IS CLOSE TO THE GEFS MEAN WHICH IS SLIGHTLY
MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE OP GFS AND CLOSEST TO A MODELING
CONSENSUS. THE MODEL 500MB PATTERN FORECAST IS ANOMALOUS FOR LATE
MAY, SO WE DID EDGE SLIGHTLY MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE SLOWER
SOLUTIONS.

THE SLOWING FRONT WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR CWA AS WE START THE
LONG TERM. WITH THE TROF SHARPENING, IT BECOMES AN UNDERRUNNER WITH
INSTABILITY STILL PRESENT ALOFT EVEN WITH THE BOUNDARY MOVING
OFFSHORE. WE INCLUDED THE CHANCE OF THUNDER IN THE MORNING, BUT
THEORETICALLY THUNDER COULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON (FRI NIGHT OFF
THE PREVIOUS ECMWF). NOT CONFIDENT ABOUT TEMP FCST AS DAYTIME MAX
TEMP MAY BE DRIVEN BY HOW FAR TEMPS FALL BY 12Z FRIDAY. KIND OF
RARE TO HAVE TEMPS GO NOWHERE ON A MAY DAY (AND ALSO HAVE THE
CALENDAR DAY HIGH POSSIBLY OCCUR AT 101 AM) AND WE SHOWED A SLIGHT
BUMP UP FOR NOW.

AS THE TROF ALOFT CLOSES, MODEL DIAGS ARE SHOWING SOME RATHER ROBUST
MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE AND FGEN FORCING FORECAST AND A
DEVELOPING MID LEVEL TROWAL OVER OUR CWA WITH THE ENTRANCE REGION
OF THE 250MB JET TO BOOT. ITS NO WONDER THAT QPF HAVE BECOME
WETTER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. IT STILL DEPENDS UPON HOW
QUICKLY AND FAR SOUTH THE 500MB LOW TRACKS. FOR NOW WE REMAIN MOST
CONFIDENT FOR THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA. WHILE POPS WERE
INCREASED FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE BOARD, THE HIGHEST
REMAIN IN THE NORTHEASTERN PART OF OUR CWA. WITH ONLY THE ECMWF
SUPPORTING THUNDER FOR FRIDAY NIGHT (NONE OF THE MODELS DO ON
SATURDAY), WE PRECLUDED THEM. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE
AS SATURDAY MOVES ALONG, BUT WITH OUR CWA REMAINING UNDER THE
CLOSED LOW, ITS GOING TO BE TOUGH TO GET MUCH SUNSHINE BEFORE WE SELF
DESTRUCT. MIN AND MAX TEMPS WERE EDGED LOWER AND CLOSE TO A STAT
GUIDANCE COMPROMISE.

WE KEPT IN PCPN CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT NORTHEAST AND KEPT SUNDAY
DRY. WE WILL STILL BE IN THE CYCLONIC FLOW OF THE CLOSED LOW, SO
MORE SELF DESTRUCT SUNSHINE IS POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY FARTHER
NORTHEAST ONE IS WITHIN OUR CWA. WE SHOWED A TEMPERATURE IMPROVEMENT
VS SATURDAY, CONFIDENCE THOUGH IS NOT HIGH UNTIL THE MODEL TREND
SETTLES.

WE DID NOT CHANGE MUCH IN THE REMAINDER OF THE LONG TERM. MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST DAY ON THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.
WE KEPT LOW CHANCE POPS IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT APPROACHING
WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A CLOUDY, RAINY PERIOD EXPECTED TODAY AS SHOWERS, AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS, ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TROUGH THE DAY AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE LOW CLOUDS/FOG HAVE NOT FORMED AS OF
THIS ISSUANCE, BUT STILL MAY DEVELOP IN THE HOURS LEADING TO
SUNRISE. SO FOR NOW, WE WILL LEAVE THEM IN THE FORECAST. EVEN IF
THEY DO NOT FORM, WE STILL EXPECT CLOUD COVER TO CONTINUE TO
INCREASE AND CIGS TO LOWER THROUGH THE MORNING, LEADING TO A PERIOD
OF MVFR THROUGH THE DAY. AS MENTIONED, SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE DAY AND COULD REDUCE VSBYS IF HEAVY
ENOUGH. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS, MAINLY THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, SO WE WILL KEEP THEM IN THE FORECAST
FOR NOW.

THE COLD FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE AREA UNTIL OVERNIGHT
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS COULD LOWER MORE AHEAD OF
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY THURSDAY NIGHT, AND SHOWERS WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE AT LEAST UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS. WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT NORTHEASTERN
TERMINALS AND AIRPORTS. CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE AS SATURDAY
CONTINUES. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WIND GUSTS COULD EXCEED 20 KTS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR. SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS
POSSIBLE ON SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT AS
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO GUST NEAR 25 KNOTS IN THE
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE TO NEAR 5-6 FEET TODAY INTO
TONIGHT AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
THE SCA FLAG HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO FRIDAY DAY FOR NOW. WINDS MAY
NOT BE A FACTOR, BUT SWELLS SHOULD REMAIN. THE INCREASING
NORTHWEST FLOW AROUND THE DEVELOPING LOW SHOULD RESULT IN MORE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ON ALL OUR AREA WATERS LATER
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT EVEN
GALE FORCE WIND GUSTS MIGHT OCCUR FOR A TIME ON SATURDAY. SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WIND GUSTS MIGHT LINGER ON THE OCEAN INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. AFTER THAT SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`GIGI/HARA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...O`GIGI/ROBERTSON/HARA
MARINE...O`GIGI/ROBERTSON/HARA

000
FXUS61 KPHI 230041
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
841 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO PUMP WARM AND MOIST AIR ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR CHICAGO THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO FRIDAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY AND REMAIN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THERE HAVE BEEN MULTIPLE MULTICELLULAR STORMS FORMING TO OUR WEST
AND SOUTHWEST TIED TO AN INCOMING SHORT WAVE THAT IS TEAMING UP WITH A
LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE STORM MOTION CONTINUES TO FAVOR OUR WESTERN
AND NORTHWESTERN ZONES AS THE SURFACE FLOW REMAINS SOUTHERLY. A
FEW CELLS ARE BEGINNING TO FIRE UP ALONG THE SURFACE COLD POOL
MOVING CLOSE TO BERKS COUNTY. THE MAIN THREAT TONIGHT WILL BE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. THERE IS STILL PLENTY
SURFACE BASED INSTABILITY FOR THE STORMS TO TAP INTO SO WE COULD
SEE A CONTINUATION OF THE CONVECTION FOR SEVERAL MORE HOURS.

OTHERWISE, THE WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT AND OUT OF OUR CWA. OVERALL, A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS IN
STORE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME FOG. FOR NOW, ADDED
IN PATCHY FOG AS WE ARE THINKING THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE MOSTLY
FOCUSED INTO THE FORM OF CLOUDS.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE MAINLY USED AN EVEN GFS/NAM MOS
BLEND. THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS INCORPORATED
SOME OF THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE TO ASSIST IN TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT INCREASING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES ALONG WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SURFACE LOW. THERE MAY BE SOME
SHOWERS /PERHAPS SOME THUNDER/ ONGOING AS THE DAY STARTS AS
INCREASING LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS
THE INLAND AREAS. WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS TO BE
PRESENT DURING THE DAY, WITH AREAS OF STRATUS AND PERHAPS FOG
GRADUALLY LIFTING SOME. THE PRESENCE OF THE CLOUDS ADDS UNCERTAINTY
TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE AIRMASS WILL BE RATHER BUOYANT, THEREFORE
SHOWERS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP FAIRLY QUICKLY EVEN WITH INITIALLY
WEAKER LIFT.

THERE IS THE CHC FOR SOME STRONGER CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY IF POCKETS
OF INCREASED INSTABILITY CAN OCCUR. AS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE AREA, ANY ROBUST UPDRAFTS THAT CAN BE SUSTAINED WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL PROVIDED STRONGER
INSTABILITY CAN BE OBTAINED. SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION, NO ENHANCED
WORDING WAS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
BE ABOUT 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES, THEREFORE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN
COULD OCCUR. AS OF NOW, MAINLY SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
COULD RESULT. A MENTION IS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE
POPS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY, ALTHOUGH WE DID SLOW
THE INCREASE DOWN SOME ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE ACTIVITY MAY BE
HELD INLAND FOR AWHILE AS LARGER SCALE LIFT TAKES LONGER TO GET MORE
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY GOING ALONG THE COAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS USED.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN TODAY GIVEN MORE CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY COUPLED WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO SHARPEN AND A SFC/UPPER LOW IS SHOWN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
LOW IS SHOWN ONLY MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY. THIS
REPRESENTS A CHANGE IN THE LONGER RANGE GFS/ECMWF MODELS OVER THE
PAST FEW RUNS. THEY WERE SHOWING MORE RAPID CLEARING ON PREVIOUS
RUNS. WE HAVE ACCORDINGLY INCREASED CLOUD/POP GRIDS FOR THESE
PERIODS OVER PREVIOUS VALUES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THU NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S FRI/SAT
AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S/50S FRI AND SAT NIGHTS.


THE REMAINING PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE PLENTY OF
DRY WEATHER. THE ONLY PERIOD WHEN PCPN IS IN THE GRIDS IS FRO NEXT
WED WHEN A SLGT CHC IS IN THERE. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY WILL CREST OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND
THEN CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S IN MANY AREAS. READINGS WILL MODERATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY REACHING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND FEW LOW
80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE LOW/MODERATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THEN
THE HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR, THEN IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THE TIMING OF THIS IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE.
THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING
NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL, THEN ANOTHER CHANCE MAINLY TOWARD
DAYBREAK. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

THURSDAY..IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR, HOWEVER GIVEN INCREASING SHOWERS WE DID
NOT FORECAST THIS AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THE ACTIVITY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU SAT MORNING...LOWER CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND LOWER
VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THIS FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHARP
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IS IN PLACE DUE TO MUCH WARMER AIR OVER THE
COOLER WATERS. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT
FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE, ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT STRONGER
WITHIN THE INVERSION LEVEL. WE ARE THINKING THAT THE WINDS GENERALLY
REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS, HOWEVER THE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD WITHIN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. IT APPEARS WAVEWATCH IS RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TO
HIGH SO FAR, THEREFORE WE DID UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE SOME. AS A
RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN ZONES /MAINLY FOR
SEAS/ REMAINS IN EFFECT STARTING EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME FOG SHOULD BE MAINTAINED INTO THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN WATERS. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY, MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON,
AND SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

OUTLOOK...
THE SCA FLAG HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THU NIGHT FOR NOW. THE SLOWER
MOVING FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MAY RESULT
IN THE SCA FLAG BEING EXTENDED FURTHER IN TIME. IMPROVING WEATHER
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/HEAVENER/O`HARA
MARINE...GORSE/O`HARA

000
FXUS61 KPHI 221945
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
345 PM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
A BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFF THE EAST COAST WILL CONTINUE
TO PUMP WARM AND MOIST AIR ACROSS THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NEAR CHICAGO THIS EVENING
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND THEN DOWN THE SAINT
LAWRENCE VALLEY INTO FRIDAY. A SECOND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
DEVELOP OFF NEW ENGLAND FRIDAY AND REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS INTO
SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN SUNDAY AND REMAIN INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
AN 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES
ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WAS DRAPED FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE
GREAT LAKES. HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED EAST OF NORTH CAROLINA. A
TROUGH WAS ACROSS VIRGINIA. AN UPPER AIR ANALYSIS SHOWED A TROUGH IN
THE NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES, WITH A STRONG
CLOSED LOW IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

THE RATHER MOIST AIRMASS HELPED TO PRODUCE LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS,
HOWEVER THESE CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM WEST TO EAST. THESE MAY HANG ON
THOUGH ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST ZONES AND ALONG THE COAST GIVEN THE
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW. A WARM FRONT SHOULD CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHWARD
THROUGH TONIGHT, AND THIS BOUNDARY WAS LOCATED IN NEAR FAR NORTHEAST
NEW JERSEY THIS AFTERNOON. OVERALL, A WARM AND MUGGY NIGHT IS IN
STORE ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA. THIS SHOULD ALSO LEAD TO ADDITIONAL
STRATUS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ALONG WITH SOME FOG. FOR NOW, ADDED IN
PATCHY FOG AS WE ARE THINKING THE MOISTURE SHOULD BE MOSTLY FOCUSED
INTO THE FORM OF CLOUDS.

THE MAIN FOCUS IS THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL IS KEYING IN
ON OUR NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE THESE AREAS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE
BETTER LARGE SCALE FORCING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW ARE
DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY IN
PLACE OWING TO THE HIGHER DEW POINTS. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF FOCUSED
FORCING MAY KEEP THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON THE LOW SIDE. THE ENTITY
TO WATCH IS AN INCOMING SHORT WAVE THAT COULD TEAM UP WITH A LEE
SIDE TROUGH, THAT WILL INITIATE CONVECTION TO OUR WEST AND
SOUTHWEST. OTHER THAN THAT, PERHAPS AN ISOLATED CELL IS ABLE TO POP
UP INLAND INTO THIS EVENING. WE THEREFORE CONTINUED WITH SLIGHT CHC
TO LOWER CHC POPS, BUT THEN LOWERED THESE FOR AWHILE TONIGHT BEFORE
INCREASING SOME IN THE WEST TOWARD MORNING.

THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FARTHER NORTH AND MOSTLY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA THEN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. THIS INITIATION COULD BE
ENHANCED SOME BY THE TERRAIN AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH AS A SHORT WAVE
APPROACHES, AND IF THIS CONVECTION ARRIVES IT COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY
STRONG WINDS AND HAIL MOSTLY ACROSS OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THE OTHER AREA IS IN WESTERN
VIRGINIA AS THIS ACTIVITY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. IT DOES HAVE A WAYS
TO GO YET BEFORE REACHING OUR REA. THE PW VALUES ARE AROUND 1.25
INCHES, THEREFORE ANY STORM THAT IS ABLE TO DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN. A MENTION WAS CONTINUED IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.

AS FOR LOW TEMPERATURES, WE MAINLY USED AN EVEN GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.
THE HOURLY TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT GRIDS INCORPORATED SOME OF THE
LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE TO ASSIST IN TRENDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THIS LOOKS TO BE AN ACTIVE DAY WITH SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS
BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO THE LARGE SCALE
LIFT INCREASING AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES ALONG WITH THE
ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT AND WEAK SURFACE LOW. THERE MAY BE SOME
SHOWERS /PERHAPS SOME THUNDER/ ONGOING AS THE DAY STARTS AS
INCREASING LIFT OVERSPREADS THE AREA. THIS SHOULD BE MAINLY ACROSS
THE INLAND AREAS. WE ARE ANTICIPATING AN ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS TO BE
PRESENT DURING THE DAY, WITH AREAS OF STRATUS AND PERHAPS FOG
GRADUALLY LIFTING SOME. THE PRESENCE OF THE CLOUDS ADDS UNCERTAINTY
TO THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY THAT WILL BE PRESENT. THE FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE AIRMASS WILL BE RATHER BUOYANT, THEREFORE
SHOWERS MAY TEND TO DEVELOP FAIRLY QUICKLY EVEN WITH INITIALLY
WEAKER LIFT.

THERE IS THE CHC FOR SOME STRONGER CONVECTION, ESPECIALLY IF POCKETS
OF INCREASED INSTABILITY CAN OCCUR. AS STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
OVERSPREADS THE AREA, ANY ROBUST UPDRAFTS THAT CAN BE SUSTAINED WILL
BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL PROVIDED STRONGER
INSTABILITY CAN BE OBTAINED. SINCE THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND ORGANIZATION OF CONVECTION, NO ENHANCED
WORDING WAS INCLUDED IN THE FORECAST. THE PW VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
BE ABOUT 1.50 TO 1.75 INCHES, THEREFORE LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN
COULD OCCUR. AS OF NOW, MAINLY SOME LOCALIZED POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
COULD RESULT. A MENTION IS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK. THE
POPS INCREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY, ALTHOUGH WE DID SLOW
THE INCREASE DOWN SOME ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE ACTIVITY MAY BE
HELD INLAND FOR AWHILE AS LARGER SCALE LIFT TAKES LONGER TO GET MORE
ORGANIZED ACTIVITY GOING ALONG THE COAST.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES, MOSTLY A GFS/NAM MOS BLEND WAS USED.
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE LOWER THAN TODAY GIVEN MORE CLOUDS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY COUPLED WITH INCREASING SHOWERS AND STORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A PERIOD OF WET WEATHER AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS
THE UPPER FLOW BEGINS TO SHARPEN AND A SFC/UPPER LOW IS SHOWN
DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND REGION THU NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THIS
LOW IS SHOWN ONLY MOVING SLOWLY EASTWARD INTO SATURDAY. THIS
REPRESENTS A CHANGE IN THE LONGER RANGE GFS/ECMWF MODELS OVER THE
PAST FEW RUNS. THEY WERE SHOWING MORE RAPID CLEARING ON PREVIOUS
RUNS. WE HAVE ACCORDINGLY INCREASED CLOUD/POP GRIDS FOR THESE
PERIODS OVER PREVIOUS VALUES. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW NORMAL
AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE THU NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES WILL STAY
BELOW NORMAL INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 60S FRI/SAT
AND LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 40S/50S FRI AND SAT NIGHTS.


THE REMAINING PART OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS TO FEATURE PLENTY OF
DRY WEATHER. THE ONLY PERIOD WHEN PCPN IS IN THE GRIDS IS FRO NEXT
WED WHEN A SLGT CHC IS IN THERE. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM TO THE
WEST ON SUNDAY WILL CREST OVER THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND
THEN CONTINUE EASTWARD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOW
70S IN MANY AREAS. READINGS WILL MODERATE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGHS BY WEDNESDAY REACHING BACK INTO THE UPPER 70S AND FEW LOW
80S. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE LOW/MODERATE SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND THEN
THE HUMIDITY WILL SLOWLY INCREASE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF THIS AFTERNOON...ANY LINGERING LOCALIZED MVFR CEILINGS
LIFTING AND SCATTERING OUT. OTHERWISE, VFR. THERE IS THE CHANCE OF A
FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO BE WELL
WEST OF KPHL. A MENTION WAS NOT INCLUDED DUE TO A LOW POTENTIAL AT
THIS TIME. SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS.

TONIGHT...VFR, THEN IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP. THE TIMING OF THIS IS OF LOW CONFIDENCE. THERE
COULD BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY IN THE EVENING NORTH
AND WEST OF KPHL, THEN ANOTHER CHANCE MAINLY TOWARD DAYBREAK.
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

THURSDAY..IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND/OR VISIBILITIES. THERE IS A CHANCE
FOR SOME IMPROVEMENT TO VFR, HOWEVER GIVEN INCREASING SHOWERS WE DID
NOT FORECAST THIS AT THIS TIME. SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE
FORECAST TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE DAY WITH REDUCED
VISIBILITIES. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY
SOME OF THE ACTIVITY. SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU SAT MORNING...LOWER CLOUDS/SHOWERS AND LOWER
VSBYS/CIGS POSSIBLE.
SAT AFTERNOON THRU MONDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. THIS FLOW IS FORECAST TO INCREASE
DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE A SHARP
LOW-LEVEL INVERSION IS IN PLACE DUE TO MUCH WARMER AIR OVER THE
COOLER WATERS. THIS WILL TEND TO KEEP THE STRONGER WINDS FROM ALOFT
FROM MIXING DOWN TO THE SURFACE, ALTHOUGH THE GFS IS A BIT STRONGER
WITHIN THE INVERSION LEVEL. WE ARE THINKING THAT THE WINDS GENERALLY
REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS, HOWEVER THE SEAS ARE FORECAST TO BUILD WITHIN
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW. IT APPEARS WAVEWATCH IS RUNNING ABOUT A FOOT TO
HIGH SO FAR, THEREFORE WE DID UNDERCUT THE GUIDANCE SOME. AS A
RESULT, THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE OCEAN ZONES /MAINLY FOR
SEAS/ REMAINS IN EFFECT STARTING EARLY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUES
THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME FOG SHOULD BE MAINTAINED INTO THURSDAY,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR NORTHERN WATERS. SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY, MOST NUMEROUS IN THE AFTERNOON,
AND SOME STORMS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN.

OUTLOOK...
THE SCA FLAG HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THU NIGHT FOR NOW. THE SLOWER
MOVING FRONT AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE TO THE NORTH MAY RESULT
IN THE SCA FLAG BEING EXTENDED FURTHER IN TIME. IMPROVING WEATHER
BY THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...GORSE
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GORSE/O`HARA
MARINE...GORSE/O`HARA

000
FXUS61 KPHI 221549
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1149 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST, TRACKING TO OUR NORTH, AND WILL THEN DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SOME CONVECTION RAPIDLY DEVELOPED LATE THIS MORNING ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA. THESE SEEM TO HAVE INITIATED NEAR THE
WARM FRONT WITH PERHAPS SOME HELP FROM DIFFERENTIAL HEATING AND
LIFT UP AND OVER THE FRONT. THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH
EVEN SOME INCREASE IN SHEAR AS ONE CROSSES THE WARM FRONT,
THEREFORE PERHAPS SOME HAIL WITH THEM. THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE
HOWEVER LOOKS LOW WITH MORE ORGANIZATION TO OUR NORTH. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS IN POPS WERE MADE, BUT OVERALL NO MAJOR CHANGES.

OTHERWISE, A RATHER SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION. THE 12Z
STERLING, VIRGINIA RAOB SHOWED A PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
WHICH HAS HELPED TO MAINTAIN THE WEALTH OF STRATUS. THE STRATUS IS
NOW LIFTING SOME AND ERODING FROM THE WEST, AND THIS SHOULD
CONTINUE TOWARD THE EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HOW QUICKLY THIS
OCCURS WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER THE
12Z RAOB SHOWS ONCE WE BREAK OUT INTO THE SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES
WILL BE RATHER TOASTY.

WE THEN LOOK TO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL SEEMS TO BE KEYING IN ON OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE THESE AREAS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER
LARGE SCALE FORCING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW ARE
DRAPED ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A FRONT SITTING VERY CLOSE TO OUR
NORTHEAST ZONES SHOULD LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WE ARE
NOT ANTICIPATING THIS TO BACK SOUTHWESTWARD. THERE IS PLENTY OF
INSTABILITY TO BE IN PLACE TODAY OWING TO THE HIGHER DEW POINTS.
HOWEVER, THE LACK OF FOCUSED FORCING MAY KEEP THE CONVECTIVE
COVERAGE ON THE LOW SIDE. AFTER THE INITIAL CONVECTION NEAR MIDDAY IN
NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, THE ENTITY TO WATCH IS AN INCOMING SHORT
WAVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THAT COULD TEAM UP WITH A LEE SIDE
TROUGH, INITIATING CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. THE EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES MAY NOT HAVE ANY CONVECTION THROUGH THE DAY, UNLESS
SOMETHING IS ABLE TO FORM WITH SOME LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FARTHER NORTH AND MOSTLY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THEN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. THIS
INITIATION COULD BE ENHANCED SOME BY THE TERRAIN AND A LEE SIDE
TROUGH AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES, AND IF THIS CONVECTION ARRIVES IT
COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND HAIL MOSTLY ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE PW VALUES ARE A
LITTLE OVER AN INCH TODAY, THEREFORE ANY STORM THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. OUR
CONFIDENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER A MENTION IS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
FOR MAINLY THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED WITH SOME OF THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE TO
ASSIST. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES WERE MADE ATTM TO THE HIGH
TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE FIRST ROUND LOOKS TO BE EARLY
IN THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO EARLY EVENING. WE MAY THEN GET A BREAK FOR
A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POSSIBLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO SUNRISE THURSDAY. THIS WOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SECOND SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH.

WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING ELEVATED ACROSS THE AREA, OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL REMAIN HIGH. GENERALLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITTING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY, WITH
THE CENTER PASSING OFF JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE ATTACHED COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, MOST LIKELY
LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ALSO STARTS
TO DEVELOP A MID LEVEL FEATURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ANY SLOWING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY END UP CONTRIBUTING TO FLOODING AS HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
AREAS WITH LOWER FFG VALUES, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY
AS SURFACE HEATING AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. WHILE
THE SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT GREAT AT THIS TIME,
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED OUR AREA IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK WITH A SEE TEXT.

THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY MORNING. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT OVERALL
THE AREAS SHOULD DRY OUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR WILL BE
PUSHED INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHWEST FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT,
BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS HINT AT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE MID LEVELS ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE ON SUNDAY. THE AIRMASS
LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE AND WE
HAVE KEPT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY START TO WARM TOWARD THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TODAY...CEILINGS CONTINUE TO IMPROVE TO MVFR, THEN TO VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE REDUCED LOCAL VISIBILITIES DUE TO
HAZE/FOG ARE EXPECTED TO IMPROVE BY MID AFTERNOON. THERE IS THE
CHANCE OF A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE
GREATEST POTENTIAL TO BE NEAR KABE AND KRDG. A MENTION WAS NOT
INCLUDED DUE TO A LOW POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHWEST
WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS, WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE GUSTINESS
AT TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH MIXING CAN OCCUR.

TONIGHT...VFR, THEN IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP LATE. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY
IN THE EVENING NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL, THEN ANOTHER CHANCE TOWARD
DAYBREAK. SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR,
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY RAIN.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
MAINLY A SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY
AND TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN SOME LATE TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, AND WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KNOTS. WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN
RUNNING A LITTLE HIGH, BUT EVEN IF WE KNOCK A FOOT OFF OF THE
SEAS, 5 FOOT SEAS COULD START LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.
THEREFORE A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY ON THE AREA
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE FRONT DEPARTS TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS MAY CAUSE
WINDS TO GUST UP AROUND 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY LATE SATURDAY AND
THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA

000
FXUS61 KPHI 221353
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
953 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST, TRACKING TO OUR NORTH, AND WILL THEN DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD
INTO THE REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND LAST INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A RATHER SOUPY AIRMASS ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING WHICH IS
RESULTING IN SOME FOG. THE 12Z STERLING, VIRGINIA RAOB SHOWED A
PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL INVERSION WHICH IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN THE
WEALTH OF STRATUS. AS HEATING OCCURS FROM ABOVE, THE STRATUS DECK IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY LIFT AND THIN OUT. HOW QUICKLY THIS OCCURS
WILL HAVE AN AFFECT ON OUR HIGH TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER THE 12Z RAOB
SHOWS ONCE WE BREAK OUT INTO THE SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL BE
RATHER TOASTY. IF THE CLEARING CAN OCCUR QUICK ENOUGH, SOME INLAND
AREAS ESPECIALLY ALONG INTERSTATE 95 COULD MAKE A RUN AT 90 DEGREES
THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE WEALTH OF CLOUDS TO START THOUGH, WE DID
NOT GO QUITE THAT HIGH. WE DID LOWER THE TEMPERATURES SOME ALONG THE
COAST AS THE FLOW IS LIGHT ENOUGH WHERE THE SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
SHOULD KEEP THESE AREAS COOLER.

WE THEN LOOK TO THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL ESPECIALLY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL SEEMS TO BE KEYING IN ON OUR
NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE THESE AREAS WILL BE CLOSER TO THE BETTER LARGE
SCALE FORCING AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND SURFACE LOW ARE DRAPED
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH, A FRONT LOOKS TO BE
SITTING VERY CLOSE TO OUR NORTHEAST ZONES THIS MORNING. WE ARE NOT
ANTICIPATING THIS TO BACK SOUTHWESTWARD MORE AT THIS TIME THOUGH,
ALTHOUGH GIVEN THE RATHER MOIST AIRMASS SOME DRIZZLE CANNOT BE
RULED OUT THIS MORNING. THERE IS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO BE IN
PLACE TODAY OWING TO THE HIGHER DEW POINTS. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF
FOCUSED FORCING MAY KEEP THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE ON THE LOW SIDE.
THE ENTITY TO WATCH IS AN INCOMING SHORT WAVE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON THAT COULD TEAM UP WITH A LEE SIDE TROUGH, INITIATING
CONVECTION TO OUR WEST. WE DECIDED TO SLOW DOWN THE POP INCREASE
SOME. THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN ZONES MAY NOT HAVE ANY CONVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY, UNLESS SOMETHING IS ABLE TO FORM WITH SOME LOW-
LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY COAST.

THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT IS FARTHER NORTH AND MOSTLY FROM
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND ACROSS NEW YORK STATE. SOME OF THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS INDICATE CONVECTION DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA THEN TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD. THIS
INITIATION COULD BE ENHANCED SOME BY THE TERRAIN AND A LEE SIDE
TROUGH AS A SHORT WAVE APPROACHES, AND IF THIS CONVECTION ARRIVES IT
COULD CONTAIN LOCALLY STRONG WINDS AND HAIL MOSTLY ACROSS OUR FAR
NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE PW VALUES ARE A
LITTLE OVER AN INCH TODAY, THEREFORE ANY STORM THAT IS ABLE TO
DEVELOP WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. OUR
CONFIDENCE IN THE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND STRENGTH IS ON THE
LOWER SIDE, HOWEVER WE MAY ADD A MENTION IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
OUTLOOK FOR MAINLY THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

THE HOURLY GRIDS WERE ADJUSTED WITH THE 13Z OBSERVATIONS WITH SOME
OF THE LAMP/LAV GUIDANCE USED TO ASSIST. LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CHANGES WERE MADE ATTM TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURES AWAY FROM THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE FIRST ROUND LOOKS TO BE EARLY
IN THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO EARLY EVENING. WE MAY THEN GET A BREAK FOR
A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POSSIBLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO SUNRISE THURSDAY. THIS WOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SECOND SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH.

WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING ELEVATED ACROSS THE AREA, OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL REMAIN HIGH. GENERALLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITTING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY, WITH
THE CENTER PASSING OFF JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE ATTACHED COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, MOST LIKELY
LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ALSO STARTS
TO DEVELOP A MID LEVEL FEATURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ANY SLOWING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY END UP CONTRIBUTING TO FLOODING AS HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
AREAS WITH LOWER FFG VALUES, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY
AS SURFACE HEATING AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. WHILE
THE SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT GREAT AT THIS TIME,
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED OUR AREA IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK WITH A SEE TEXT.

THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY MORNING. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT OVERALL
THE AREAS SHOULD DRY OUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR WILL BE
PUSHED INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHWEST FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT,
BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS HINT AT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE MID LEVELS ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE ON SUNDAY. THE AIRMASS
LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE AND WE
HAVE KEPT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY START TO WARM TOWARD THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...IFR/MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY IMPROVING TO MVFR EVERYWHERE
AROUND MIDDAY, THEN TO VFR THIS AFTERNOON. THE TIMING OF THE
IMPROVEMENT IS OF LOWER CONFIDENCE. THERE WILL GENERALLY BE MVFR
VISIBILITIES DUE TO SOME FOG THROUGH LATE MORNING. THERE IS THE
CHANCE A SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON, WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL TO BE NEAR KABE AND KRDG. A MENTION WAS NOT INCLUDED DUE
TO A LOW POTENTIAL AT THIS TIME. LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING
TO 10-15 KNOTS TOWARD MIDDAY, WITH PERHAPS A LITTLE GUSTINESS AT
TIMES DURING THE AFTERNOON IF ENOUGH MIXING CAN OCCUR.

TONIGHT...VFR, THEN IFR/MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE FORECAST
TO DEVELOP LATE. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM ESPECIALLY
IN THE EVENING NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL, THEN ANOTHER CHANCE TOWARD
DAYBREAK. SOUTHWEST WINDS GENERALLY UNDER 10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR,
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY RAIN.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN SOME LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, AND
WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KNOTS. WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN RUNNING A
LITTLE HIGH, BUT EVEN IF WE KNOCK A FOOT OFF OF THE SEAS, 5 FOOT
SEAS COULD START LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THEREFORE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY ON THE AREA
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE FRONT DEPARTS TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS MAY CAUSE
WINDS TO GUST UP AROUND 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY LATE SATURDAY AND
THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE/MEOLA
NEAR TERM...GORSE
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA

000
FXUS61 KPHI 220805
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 AM EDT WED MAY 22 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE
WEST, PASSING TO OUR NORTH, AND WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN
BUILD INTO THE REGION FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND LAST INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL BE IN PLACE TO START THE DAY ONCE AGAIN
TODAY. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF/LIFT BY MID-MORNING, BUT WE SHOULD
CONTINUE TO HAVE A PARTLY CLOUDY DAY.

HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TODAY, WHILE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS WILL KEEP A
RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE AREA, CONTINUING TO KEEP WARM, MOIST AIR
FLOWING ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES TODAY SHOULD GENERALLY
REACH THE MID-UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA; THE COASTAL STRIP
SHOULD REMAIN COOLER, AND PROBABLY NOT REACH 80.

WITH THE WARM, MOIST AIRMASS REMAINING IN PLACE, THERE WILL CONTINUE
TO BE QUITE A BIT OF INSTABILITY ACROSS THE AREA. THE LIMITING
FACTOR FOR SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE A SLIGHT CAP, AND LACK OF A
STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX. HOWEVER, THERE COULD BE SOME WEAK
VORTICITY ALOFT MOVING THROUGH LATER IN THE DAY, WHICH COULD HELP
SPARK OFF SOME SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
ACTIVITY LOOKS TO BE NORTH AND WEST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR. ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP COULD CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS AND EVEN SOME SMALL HAIL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
A COUPLE OF ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS LOOK POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY MORNING. THE FIRST ROUND LOOKS TO BE EARLY
IN THE EVENING ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH
LATE IN THE DAY AND INTO EARLY EVENING. WE MAY THEN GET A BREAK FOR
A PORTION OF THE OVERNIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POSSIBLE CHANCE OF
PRECIPITATION CLOSER TO SUNRISE THURSDAY. THIS WOULD BE ASSOCIATED
WITH A SECOND SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX MOVING THROUGH.

WITH DEWPOINTS REMAINING ELEVATED ACROSS THE AREA, OVERNIGHT LOWS
WILL REMAIN HIGH. GENERALLY TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY DROP
INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITTING TO OUR SOUTHEAST, WE WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE A SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT
WARM AND MOIST AIR TO OUR AREA. THIS WILL KEEP OUR TEMPERATURES AT
OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THURSDAY.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST ON THURSDAY, WITH
THE CENTER PASSING OFF JUST TO OUR NORTH. THE ATTACHED COLD FRONT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, MOST LIKELY
LATER IN THE DAY THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY. THE LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SLOW DOWN THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AND ALSO STARTS
TO DEVELOP A MID LEVEL FEATURE ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AROUND 1.5 INCHES, ANY SLOWING OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE MAY END UP CONTRIBUTING TO FLOODING AS HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED, ESPECIALLY FOR THE
AREAS WITH LOWER FFG VALUES, MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON THURSDAY
AS SURFACE HEATING AND SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE IN PLACE. WHILE
THE SEVERE THREAT DOES NOT LOOK TO BE ALL THAT GREAT AT THIS TIME,
THERE IS A CHANCE THAT SOME STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG AND SPC HAS
HIGHLIGHTED OUR AREA IN THEIR DAY 2 OUTLOOK WITH A SEE TEXT.

THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY MORNING. SOME
LINGERING SHOWERS MAY CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING BUT OVERALL
THE AREAS SHOULD DRY OUT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER AIR WILL BE
PUSHED INTO THE REGION ON A NORTHWEST FLOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S.

CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE FRONT,
BRINGING IN SOME COOLER AND DRIER AIR FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MODELS HINT AT A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE MID LEVELS ON SATURDAY AND ANOTHER ONE ON SUNDAY. THE AIRMASS
LOOKS TO BE TOO DRY FOR ANYTHING TO MAKE IT TO THE SURFACE AND WE
HAVE KEPT THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK DRY. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ACROSS THE REGION. TEMPERATURES
WILL GRADUALLY START TO WARM TOWARD THE MIDWEEK TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN EARLY THIS
MORNING. ANY LOW CLOUDS/FOG THAT DOES DEVELOP SHOULD BURN OFF/LIFT
BY MID-MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN REMAIN ACROSS THE TAF
SITES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING HOURS. THERE
IS THE CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON.
THE GREATEST POTENTIAL LOOKS TO BE FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN TAFS. THE
OVERNIGHT 06Z TAFS DID NOT INCLUDE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL,
HOWEVER, THE 12Z TAFS MAY BE UPDATED TO INCLUDE A TEMPO SHOWER GROUP
FOR LATE IN THE DAY. CONFIDENCE IN THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING WOULD BE
LOW ENOUGH NOT TO INCLUDE. WINDS TODAY MAY GUSTY AROUND 15-20 KNOTS
AFTER THE SUN BREAKS OUT AND SOME MIXING OCCURS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

LOW CIGS/VSBYS ARE ONCE AGAIN FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING WITH THE MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME SHOWERS, BUT TIMING THESE IS DIFFICULT, SO THEY WERE LEFT
OUT FOR NOW.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR,
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OR HEAVY RAIN.

FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
NORTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. THE GRADIENT MAY TIGHTEN SOME LATE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, AND
WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO 25 KNOTS. WAVEWATCH HAS BEEN RUNNING A
LITTLE HIGH, BUT EVEN IF WE KNOCK A FOOT OFF OF THE SEAS, 5 FOOT
SEAS COULD START LATE TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THEREFORE A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED STARTING LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUING INTO AT LEAST TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING A TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY ON THE AREA
WATERS. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TIGHTEN AS THE FRONT DEPARTS TO THE EAST
AND HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA. THIS MAY CAUSE
WINDS TO GUST UP AROUND 25 KNOTS, ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. SEAS WILL
LIKELY REMAIN AT OR ABOVE 5 FEET INTO THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND.
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BY LATE SATURDAY AND
THEN REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH THE REST OF THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KNOWING THE FIRST 20 DAYS OF MAY TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED ALMOST
SPOT-ON NORMAL FOR ALMOST EVERY CLIMATE SITE IN OUR AREA...WE
PROJECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH FOR KPHL. WE USED THE KPHL
MAX/MINS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS, AND THEN THE FTPRHA PHL 2M MAX/MIN
TEMPS BEYOND THRU THE 31ST.

THE PROJECTED MONTHLY AVG TEMPS IS IN THE NORMAL RANGE...SLIGHTLY ABOVE
BUT WITHIN 1/2 DEG OF NORMAL.

WE DISCUSS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SINCE WE`RE COMING INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE COOL AND LESS FAVORABLE FOR OCEAN SWIMMING BUT
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING INCREASING CHANCES FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN DEVELOPING HERE BETWEEN ROUGHLY THE 30TH OF MAY WELL INTO
THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.

SST`S ARE ALREADY GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IF WE
ADVANCE INTO A HOT SPELL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WE DO NOT WANT
A REPEAT OF LAST YEAR WHEN HOT WEATHER...WARMER THAN NORMAL WATERS AND
SEEMINGLY BENIGN OCEAN SWELLS ENCOURAGED SWIMMERS TO TAKE UNNECESSARY
RISKS AT EARLY SEASON "UNGUARDED" BEACHES WITH RIP CURRENT RELATED
DROWNINGS. THE DANGERS OF RIP CURRENTS ARE WORTHY OF A FEW MINUTES
OF DINNER TABLE DISCUSSION...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS ACCESS TO
THE BEACHES FOR MILLIONS OF SWIMMERS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF OUR
AREA WHO MAY BE LESS EXPERIENCED WITH THE DANGERS OF OCEAN SWIMMING.

THE CHANCES OF DROWNING AT A LIFE GUARDED BEACH IS 1 IN 18 MILLION.

RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK IS JUNE 2 THROUGH 8.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
     THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
MARINE...ROBERTSON/MEOLA
CLIMATE...

000
FXUS61 KPHI 220141
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
941 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
THIS HIGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM: CUT BACK FURTHER ON SHOWERS NW PTN OF THE FA TONIGHT. FOG
IS IN THE COUNTRYSIDE FCST BUT NOT NECESSARILY THE URBAN CENTERS
(FOGGER TOOL I THINK IS BETTER THAN THE CONSERVATIVE CROSSOVER).
HOWEVER SREF PROBS EVEN LOWER VSBY TO LESS THAN 1 MI IN THE CITY
BY 09Z.

SO MO CLEAR SKIES GIVE WAY TO LOW OVERCAST LATE. THERE IS A SMALL
CHANCE THAT CONVECTION IN NW PA AND S NYS AT 01Z WILL DEVELOP ESEWD
AND GRAZE THE POCONOS 05Z-08 BUT FOR NOW... MODEL SIGNALS ARE DRY
FOR THIS EVENING AND WITHOUT CU...ITS DIFFICULT TO HAVE A SHOWER.

WARM AND HUMID WITH TEMPS MUCH ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR...AND MORE TYPICAL OF A MID SUMMER NIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE WEATHER SIMILAR TO TODAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS/FOG IN
THE MORNING AND A CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
E PA. ITS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE DE VALLEY
DURING MIDDAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART CONVECTION SHOULD BE MID OR
LATE AFTN...IF ANY WITHIN OUR CWA.

SPC HAS PLACED THE SLGT RISK FOR TSTMS TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA...SO
WE WILL WATCH FOR THE UPDATE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE
VERY WARM AGAIN WED WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS
(EXCEPT ALONG THE SHORE...WHERE READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S MAY OCCUR). THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE THE TEMP NUDGES 90F
VCNTY OF KRDG OR KABE OR NEAR KSMQ IN THE AFTN WHERE THE HOTTEST
TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR...AGAIN PRESUMING NO CONVECTION IN THE 14Z-20Z
TIME FRAME.

CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY VERY SLOW TO THIN OVER SE NJ AND S DE ON
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY NOT CLEARING OFF TIL MID AFTN.

SW WIND G TO 15 MPH WED AFTN.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLC CST WED NIGHT
AND THU AND SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WHICH WILL KEEP WARM WX OVER
THE AREA. HOWEVER, BY THU, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
SERN CANADA. THE CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION
THU NIGHT. THIS PD LOOKS TO TO BE THE WETTEST WITH SHOWERS, TSTMS
AND PSBLY SOME HEAVY RAIN. ITS A BIT TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN ABOUT
ANY SEVER WX POTENTIAL. IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON DAYTIME HEATING
AND OTHER FACTORS. HOWEVER, IT COULD BE MITIGATED BY THE FACT THAT
THE FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH AFTER SUNSET. THE 21/12Z GFS IS
THE SLOWEST MDL CLEARING THINGS OUT ON FRI AND TRIES TO DEVELOP A
WAVE ALG THE FRONT. NONE OF THE OTHER MDLS HAVE THIS FEATURE, SO
AM NOT INCLINED TO GO ALONG FOR NOW. FRI, ESPECIALLY LATER FRI,
SHOULD SEE IMPROVING WX AND BY SAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST FROM CANADA WAND WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EWD
THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH AND THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL KEEP A DECENT NWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA ON
SAT, WITH WEAKENING FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES IN ON SUN. SO, AT THIS
POINT, THE WEEKEND LOOKS PREDOMINANTLY DRY, ALBEIT COOL FOR LATE
MAY AND WITH A BRISK NW WIND, IT WILL FEEL COOLER ON SAT.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARMEST ON THU, WITH TEMPS AROUND 80 OR INTO THE
80S. THEN BEHIND THE FRONT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE AROUND 70 OR
INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. SAT LOOKS TO BE
THE COOLEST DAYS, WITH MANY LOCATIONS HOVERING IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&


.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIRRUS THIS EVENING. LIGHT SSW WIND. CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO BECOME IFR OR LIFR IN ST/FOG AFTER 07Z.

WED...AFTER A PROBABLE IFR CONDITION START AT 12Z...A SLOW RETURN TO
VFR BY MID OR LATE MORNING WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT IN THE
AFTN AND A SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
VCNTY KRDG OR KABE. SW WIND GUST TO 15 KT IN THE AFTN.

THE IFR CIGS MAY BE VERY SLOW TO LIFT VCNTY KMIV AND KACY NOT LIFTING
TO MVFR CIGS TIL MIDDAY WED AND CLEARING AROUND MID AFTN.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE DE VALLEY VCNTY KPNE/KPHL
AROUND 15-16Z WED PER LONG RANGE RUC-RAP BUT AN UNLIKELY OCCURRENCE.

FEELING IS THE MODELS HAVE A SLIGHT WET BIAS AND ARE OVERDOING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL IN THIS SW FLOW SUMMERLIKE SCENARIO IN OUR CWA.


OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR,
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OR PDS OF
HEAVY RAIN. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO NW BEHIND CFP LATE WED
NIGHT/EARLY THU MRNG. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL DETAILS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE FACT THAT ALL SITES WILL SEE MVFR/IFR AND
TIMING.

FRI...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT-SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A BRISK NW WIND ON SAT OF 15-20
KT.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
GUIDANCE RUNNING A SOLID 1 FOOT OR MORE TOO HIGH RECENTLY DUE TO
WAA OVER COOLER WATER.

CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA TONIGHT AND APPROACH SCA LATER
WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE WED...BUT WITH THE WARMER AIR AND
COOLER SEAS...THE WINDS/WAVE GUIDANCE WILL PROBABLY BE TOO HIGH.
WE OPT TO KEEP THE SEAS AT 3 TO 4 FT FOR WED AND HOLD THE WINDS
BELOW SCA FLAG LEVELS. A FEW G 20-25 ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION
LATER WED. SCAT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED WED.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST WILL
BRING A PROLONGED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU. AS THIS FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE W
ON THU, WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. THEREFORE, SEAS
AND WIND COULD BE AOA SCA CRITERIA BY THE START OF THE OUTLOOK PD. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PD ON THE OCEAN FRONT.
HOWEVER, WITH VERY WARM AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL OCEAN AND
WAVE WATCH OVERDOING HEIGHTS OF LATE, HAVE DECIDED NOT TO POST
ANYTHING ATTM. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SHWRS/TSTMS WED NIGHT INTO
THU ALG AND AHEAD OF THE CFP.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE AND SHOULD FALL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KNOWING THE FIRST 20 DAYS OF MAY TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED ALMOST
SPOT-ON NORMAL FOR ALMOST EVERY CLIMATE SITE IN OUR AREA...WE
PROJECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH FOR KPHL. WE USED THE KPHL
MAX/MINS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS, AND THEN THE FTPRHA PHL 2M MAX/MIN
TEMPS BEYOND THRU THE 31ST.

THE PROJECTED MONTHLY AVG TEMPS IS IN THE NORMAL RANGE...SLIGHTLY ABOVE
BUT WITHIN 1/2 DEG OF NORMAL.

WE DISCUSS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SINCE WE`RE COMING INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE COOL AND LESS FAVORABLE FOR OCEAN SWIMMING BUT
GUIDANCE IS SHOWING INCREASING CHANCES FOR A WARMER THAN NORMAL
PATTERN DEVELOPING HERE BETWEEN ROUGHLY THE 30TH OF MAY WELL INTO
THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.

SST`S ARE ALREADY GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IF WE
ADVANCE INTO A HOT SPELL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WE DO NOT WANT
A REPEAT OF LAST YEAR WHEN HOT WEATHER...WARMER THAN NORMAL WATERS AND
SEEMINGLY BENIGN OCEAN SWELLS ENCOURAGED SWIMMERS TO TAKE UNNECESSARY
RISKS AT EARLY SEASON "UNGUARDED" BEACHES WITH RIP CURRENT RELATED
DROWNINGS. THE DANGERS OF RIP CURRENTS ARE WORTHY OF A FEW MINUTES
OF DINNER TABLE DISCUSSION...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS ACCESS TO
THE BEACHES FOR MILLIONS OF SWIMMERS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF OUR
AREA WHO MAY BE LESS EXPERIENCED WITH THE DANGERS OF OCEAN SWIMMING.

THE CHANCES OF DROWNING AT A LIFE GUARDED BEACH IS 1 IN 18 MILLION.

RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK IS JUNE 2 THROUGH 8.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG  940
SHORT TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 940
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 940
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA 940
CLIMATE...940

000
FXUS61 KPHI 220013
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
813 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
THIS HIGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
740 PM: NO CHANGE TO THE ESTF UPDATE AT 550 PM.

STARTED THE EVENING MOSTLY CLEAR AND CUT OUT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THE ACTION IN MONROE AND SUSSEX
COUNTIES AROUND 2PM WAS ALL THAT WE WOULD HAVE TODAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL DEVELOP OR SLIDE
INTO NE PA TOWARD 04Z AND INVADE THE POCONOS AROUND 05Z BUT FOR NOW...
MODEL SIGNALS ARE DRY FOR THIS EVENING AND WITHOUT CU...ITS
DIFFICULT TO HAVE A SHOWER.

THE FOG WAS DELAYED TIL LATE AND ATTM...NOT CALLING IT 1/4MI
DENSE. WILL REREVIEW FOG POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING.

LOW OVC WITH AREAS OF FOG SHOULD TEND TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER
07Z. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ABOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
CRITERIA...SO WE HAVE NOT ISSUED. IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 60S
SOUTH. WINDS LIGHT MOSTLY FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /8 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE WEATHER SIMILAR TO TODAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS/FOG IN
THE MORNING AND A CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
E PA. ITS POSSIBLE THERE WILL BE ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE DE VALLEY
DURING MIDDAY BUT FOR THE MOST PART CONVECTION SHOULD BE MID OR
LATE AFTN...IF ANY IN OUR CWA.

SPC HAS PLACED THE SLGT RISK FOR TSTMS TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA...SO
WE WILL WATCH FOR THE UPDATE EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. HIGHS WILL BE
VERY WARM AGAIN WED WITH TEMPS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S IN MOST AREAS
(EXCEPT ALONG THE SHORE...WHERE READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW
80S MAY OCCUR). THERE IS STILL A SMALL CHANCE THE TEMP NUDGES 90F
VCNTY OF KRDG OR KABE OR NEAR KSMQ IN THE AFTN WHERE THE HOTTEST
TEMPS SHOULD OCCUR.

CLOUD COVER WILL PROBABLY VER SLOW TO THIN OVER SE NJ AND S DE ON
WEDNESDAY...POSSIBLY NOT CLEARING OFF TIL MID AFTN.

SW WIND G TO 15 MPH WED AFTN.

 &&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLC CST WED NIGHT
AND THU AND SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WHICH WILL KEEP WARM WX OVER
THE AREA. HOWEVER, BY THU, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
SERN CANADA. THE CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION
THU NIGHT. THIS PD LOOKS TO TO BE THE WETTEST WITH SHOWERS, TSTMS
AND PSBLY SOME HEAVY RAIN. ITS A BIT TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN ABOUT
ANY SEVER WX POTENTIAL. IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON DAYTIME HEATING
AND OTHER FACTORS. HOWEVER, IT COULD BE MITIGATED BY THE FACT THAT
THE FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH AFTER SUNSET. THE 21/12Z GFS IS
THE SLOWEST MDL CLEARING THINGS OUT ON FRI AND TRIES TO DEVELOP A
WAVE ALG THE FRONT. NONE OF THE OTHER MDLS HAVE THIS FEATURE, SO
AM NOT INCLINED TO GO ALONG FOR NOW. FRI, ESPECIALLY LATER FRI,
SHOULD SEE IMPROVING WX AND BY SAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST FROM CANADA WAND WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EWD
THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH AND THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL KEEP A DECENT NWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA ON
SAT, WITH WEAKENING FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES IN ON SUN. SO, AT THIS
POINT, THE WEEKEND LOOKS PREDOMINANTLY DRY, ALBEIT COOL FOR LATE
MAY AND WITH A BRISK NW WIND, IT WILL FEEL COOLER ON SAT.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARMEST ON THU, WITH TEMPS AROUND 80 OR INTO THE
80S. THEN BEHIND THE FRONT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE AROUND 70 OR
INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. SAT LOOKS TO BE
THE COOLEST DAYS, WITH MANY LOCATIONS HOVERING IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIRRUS THIS EVENING. LIGHT SSW WIND. CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO BECOME IFR OR LIFR IN ST/FOG AFTER 07Z.

WED...AFTER A PROBABLE IFR CONDITION START AT 12Z...A SLOW RETURN TO
VFR BY MID OR LATE MORNING WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT IN THE
AFTN AND A SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
VCNTY KRDG OR KABE. SW WIND GUST TO 15 KT IN THE AFTN.

THE IFR CIGS MAY BE VERY SLOW TO LIFT VCNTY KMIV AND KACY NOT
LIFTING TO MVFR CIGS TIL MIDDAY WED AND CLEARING AROUND MID AFTN.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR A SHOWER IN THE DE VALLEY VCNTY
KPNE/KPHL AROUND 15-16Z WED PER LONG RANGE RUC-RAP BUT UNLIKELY.

FEELING IS THE MODELS HAVE A SLIGHT WET BIAS AND OVERDOING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IN THIS SW FLOW SUMMERLIKE SCENARIO.


OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR,
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OR PDS OF
HEAVY RAIN. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO NW BEHIND CFP LATE WED
NIGHT/EARLY THU MRNG. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL DETAILS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE FACT THAT ALL SITES WILL SEE MVFR/IFR AND
TIMING.

FRI...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT-SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A BRISK NW WIND ON SAT OF 15-20
KT.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SW/S ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH SPEEDS
MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY AROUND 3 FT ON THE OCEAN
AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER THE DEL BAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA
TONIGHT AND APPROACH SCA LATER WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
WED...BUT WITH THE WARMER AIR AND COOLER SEAS...THE WINDS/WAVE
GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO HIGH. WE OPT TO KEEP THE SEAS AT 3 TO 4 FT FOR
WED AND HOLD THE WINDS BELOW SCA FLAG LEVELS. A FEW G 20-25 ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER WED. SCAT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED WED.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST WILL
BRING A PROLONGED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU. AS THIS FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE W
ON THU, WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. THEREFORE, SEAS
AND WIND COULD BE AOA SCA CRITERIA BY THE START OF THE OUTLOOK PD. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PD ON THE OCEAN FRONT.
HOWEVER, WITH VERY WARM AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL OCEAN AND
WAVE WATCH OVERDOING HEIGHTS OF LATE, HAVE DECIDED NOT TO POST
ANYTHING ATTM. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SHWRS/TSTMS WED NIGHT INTO
THU ALG AND AHEAD OF THE CFP.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE AND SHOULD FALL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KNOWING THE FIRST 20 DAYS OF MAY TEMPERATURES HAVE AVERAGED ALMOST
SPOT-ON NORMAL FOR ALMOST EVERY CLIMATE SITE IN OUR AREA...WE
PROJECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE MONTH FOR KPHL. WE USED THE KPHL
MAX/MINS FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS, AND THEN THE FTPRHA 2M MAX/MIN TEMPS
BEYOND THRU THE 31ST.

THE AVG IS IN THE NORMAL RANGE...SLIGHTLY ABOVE BUT WITHIN 1/2 DEG
OF NORMAL.

WE DISCUSS TEMPERATURES TONIGHT SINCE WE`RE COMING INTO THE MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND WHICH WILL BE COOL AND LESS FAVORABLE FOR SWIMMING BUT GUIDANCE
IS SHOWING INCREASING CHANCES OF A WARMER THAN NORMAL PATTERN DEVELOPING
BETWEEN ROUGHLY THE 30TH OF MAY INTO THE FIRST WEEK OF JUNE.

SST`S ARE ALREADY GENERALLY SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IF WE
ADVANCE INTO A HOT SPELL BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WE DO NOT WANT
A REPEAT OF LAST YEAR WHEN HOT WEATHER...WARM WATERS AND SEEMINGLY
BENIGN OCEAN SWELLS ENCOURAGED SWIMMERS TO TAKE UNNECESSARY RISKS
AT EARLY SEASON "UNGUARDED" BEACHES WITH RIP CURRENT RELATED
DROWNINGS. THE DANGERS OF RIP CURRENTS ARE WORTHY OF A FEW MINUTES
OF DINNER TABLE DISCUSSION...ESPECIALLY SINCE THERE IS ACCESS TO
THE BEACHES FOR MILLIONS OF SWIMMERS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF OUR
AREA WHO MAY BE LESS EXPERIENCED WITH THE DANGERS OF OCEAN SWIMMING.

THE CHANCES OF DROWNING AT A LIFE GUARDED BEACH IS 1 IN 18 MILLION.

RIP CURRENT AWARENESS WEEK IS JUNE 2 THROUGH 8.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG 813
SHORT TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 813
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG 813
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG

000
FXUS61 KPHI 212208
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
608 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
THIS HIGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ESTF UPDATE AT 550 PM.

STARTED THE EVENING MOSTLY CLEAR AND CUT OUT THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND TSTMS PRIOR TO MIDNIGHT. THE ACTION IN MONROE AND SUSSEX
COUNTIES AROUND 2PM WAS ALL THAT WE WOULD HAVE TODAY.

THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE THAT ISOLATED CONVECTION NOW FORMING IN
FAR NORTH CENTRAL PA WILL TURN ESE AND INVADE THE POCONOS AROUND
11 PM BUT FOR NOW...MODEL SIGNALS ARE DRY FOR THIS EVENING AND
WITHOUT CU...ITS DIFFICULT TO HAVE A SHOWER.

THE FOG WAS DELAYED TIL LATER AND ATTM...NOT CALLING IT 1/4MI DENSE.
WILL REREVIEW FOG POTENTIAL LATER THIS EVENING.

LOW OVC WITH AREAS OF FOG SHOULD TEND TO BECOME WIDESPREAD AFTER
06Z. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ABOVE DENSE FOG ADVISORY
CRITERIA...SO WE HAVE NOT ISSUED. IT WILL REMAIN WARM AND HUMID
AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 60S
SOUTH. WINDS LIGHT MOSTLY FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE WEATHER SIMILAR TO TODAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS/FOG IN
THE MORNING AND THE CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE FOUND ACROSS MOST AREAS...UNLIKE TDY WHERE
IT WAS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH. WE WILL CARRY POPS IN THE CHC RANGE
FOR NOW. THE SPC HAS PLACED THE SLGT RISK FOR TSTMS TO THE WEST OF
OUR AREA...SO WE WILL WATCH FOR UPDATED OVERNIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
VERY WARM AGAIN WED WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS (EXCEPT
ALONG THE SHORE...WHERE READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MAY
OCCUR).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLC CST WED NIGHT
AND THU AND SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WHICH WILL KEEP WARM WX OVER
THE AREA. HOWEVER, BY THU, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
SERN CANADA. THE CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION
THU NIGHT. THIS PD LOOKS TO TO BE THE WETTEST WITH SHOWERS, TSTMS
AND PSBLY SOME HEAVY RAIN. ITS A BIT TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN ABOUT
ANY SEVER WX POTENTIAL. IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON DAYTIME HEATING
AND OTHER FACTORS. HOWEVER, IT COULD BE MITIGATED BY THE FACT THAT
THE FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH AFTER SUNSET. THE 21/12Z GFS IS
THE SLOWEST MDL CLEARING THINGS OUT ON FRI AND TRIES TO DEVELOP A
WAVE ALG THE FRONT. NONE OF THE OTHER MDLS HAVE THIS FEATURE, SO
AM NOT INCLINED TO GO ALONG FOR NOW. FRI, ESPECIALLY LATER FRI,
SHOULD SEE IMPROVING WX AND BY SAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST FROM CANADA WAND WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EWD
THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH AND THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL KEEP A DECENT NWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA ON
SAT, WITH WEAKENING FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES IN ON SUN. SO, AT THIS
POINT, THE WEEKEND LOOKS PREDOMINANTLY DRY, ALBEIT COOL FOR LATE
MAY AND WITH A BRISK NW WIND, IT WILL FEEL COOLER ON SAT.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARMEST ON THU, WITH TEMPS AROUND 80 OR INTO THE
80S. THEN BEHIND THE FRONT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE AROUND 70 OR
INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. SAT LOOKS TO BE
THE COOLEST DAYS, WITH MANY LOCATIONS HOVERING IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...VFR CIRRUS WITH PATCHY SC VCNTY KACY-KMIV THIS EVENING.
LIGHT SSW WIND. CONDITIONS LIKELY TO BECOME IFR OR LIFR IN ST/FOG
AFTER 07Z.

WED...AFTER A PROBABLE IFR CONDITION START AT 12Z...A SLOW RETURN TO
VFR BY MID OR LATE MORNING WITH SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 3500 FT IN THE
AFTN AND A SHOWER OR TSTM POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY
VCNTY KRDG OR KABE. SW WIND GUST TO 15 KT IN THE AFTN.


OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR,
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OR PDS OF
HEAVY RAIN. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO NW BEHIND CFP LATE WED
NIGHT/EARLY THU MRNG. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL DETAILS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE FACT THAT ALL SITES WILL SEE MVFR/IFR AND
TIMING.

FRI...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT-SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A BRISK NW WIND ON SAT OF 15-20
KT.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SW/S ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH SPEEDS
MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY AROUND 3 FT ON THE OCEAN
AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER THE DEL BAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA
TONIGHT AND APPROACH SCA LATER WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
WED...BUT WITH THE WARMER AIR AND COOLER SEAS...THE WINDS/WAVE
GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO HIGH. WE OPT TO KEEP THE SEAS AT 3 TO 4 FT FOR
WED AND HOLD THE WINDS BELOW SCA FLAG LEVELS. A FEW G 20-25 ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER WED. SCAT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED WED.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST WILL
BRING A PROLONGED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU. AS THIS FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE W
ON THU, WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. THEREFORE, SEAS
AND WIND COULD BE AOA SCA CRITERIA BY THE START OF THE OUTLOOK PD. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PD ON THE OCEAN FRONT.
HOWEVER, WITH VERY WARM AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL OCEAN AND
WAVE WATCH OVERDOING HEIGHTS OF LATE, HAVE DECIDED NOT TO POST
ANYTHING ATTM. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SHWRS/TSTMS WED NIGHT INTO
THU ALG AND AHEAD OF THE CFP.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE AND SHOULD FALL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...DRAG/O`HARA 607
SHORT TERM...DRAG/O`HARA
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA 607
MARINE...DRAG/NIERENBERG/O`HARA 607

000
FXUS61 KPHI 211855
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
255 PM EDT TUE MAY 21 2013

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS TO SOUTHEASTERN CANADA THROUGH THURSDAY AND BRING
A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND
THIS HIGH WILL THEN GRADUALLY MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS/TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS WILL DISSIPATE
THIS EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR
WITH THE ACTIVITY EARLY. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY
EARLY...THEN TRANSITION BACK TO A LOW OVC ALONG WITH AREAS OF FOG
AGAIN TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL PROBABLY REMAIN ABOVE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY CRITERIA...SO WE HAVE NOT ISSUED THAT ATTM. IT WILL REMAIN
WARM AND HUMID AGAIN TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOW/MID 60S NORTH AND
MID/UPPER 60S SOUTH. WINDS LIGHT MOSTLY FROM THE SW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY EVENING/...
WEDNESDAY WILL HAVE WEATHER SIMILAR TO TODAY. PLENTY OF CLOUDS/FOG IN
THE MORNING AND THE CHC FOR SHOWERS/TSTMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THIS
ACTIVITY WILL PROBABLY BE FOUND ACROSS MOST AREAS...UNLIKE TDY WHERE
IT WAS RESTRICTED TO THE NORTH. WE WILL CARRY POPS IN THE CHC RANGE
FOR NOW. THE SPC HAS PLACED THE SLGT RISK FOR TSTMS TO THE WEST OF
OUR AREA...SO WE WILL WATCH FOR UPDATED OVERNIGHT. HIGHS WILL BE
VERY WARM AGAIN WED WITH TEMPS IN THE MID 80S IN MOST AREAS (EXCEPT
ALONG THE SHORE...WHERE READINGS IN THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S MAY
OCCUR).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OFF THE ATLC CST WED NIGHT
AND THU AND SWLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE WHICH WILL KEEP WARM WX OVER
THE AREA. HOWEVER, BY THU, AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO
SERN CANADA. THE CDFNT ASSOCD WITH THIS LOW WILL CROSS THE REGION
THU NIGHT. THIS PD LOOKS TO TO BE THE WETTEST WITH SHOWERS, TSTMS
AND PSBLY SOME HEAVY RAIN. ITS A BIT TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN ABOUT
ANY SEVER WX POTENTIAL. IT WILL BE DEPENDENT ON DAYTIME HEATING
AND OTHER FACTORS. HOWEVER, IT COULD BE MITIGATED BY THE FACT THAT
THE FRONT WILL BE COMING THROUGH AFTER SUNSET. THE 21/12Z GFS IS
THE SLOWEST MDL CLEARING THINGS OUT ON FRI AND TRIES TO DEVELOP A
WAVE ALG THE FRONT. NONE OF THE OTHER MDLS HAVE THIS FEATURE, SO
AM NOT INCLINED TO GO ALONG FOR NOW. FRI, ESPECIALLY LATER FRI,
SHOULD SEE IMPROVING WX AND BY SAT A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL PUSH INTO THE MIDWEST FROM CANADA WAND WILL SLOWLY SLIDE EWD
THRU THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

THE PGRAD BETWEEN THE BUILDING HIGH AND THE DEPARTING LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL KEEP A DECENT NWLY FLOW OVER THE AREA ON
SAT, WITH WEAKENING FLOW AS THE HIGH MOVES IN ON SUN. SO, AT THIS
POINT, THE WEEKEND LOOKS PREDOMINANTLY DRY, ALBEIT COOL FOR LATE
MAY AND WITH A BRISK NW WIND, IT WILL FEEL COOLER ON SAT.

TEMPS LOOK TO BE WARMEST ON THU, WITH TEMPS AROUND 80 OR INTO THE
80S. THEN BEHIND THE FRONT MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE AROUND 70 OR
INTO THE LOWER 70S FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PD. SAT LOOKS TO BE
THE COOLEST DAYS, WITH MANY LOCATIONS HOVERING IN THE MID/UPPER 60S.




&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

IT HAS BEEN TAKING A LONG TIME FOR THE PATCH OF ST ACROSS
MIV-PHL-ILG TO FINALLY DISSIPATE...BUT IT APPEARS THAT IT WILL BY
MID AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED INTO THE EVENING...BEFORE A
RETURN BACK TO LOW MVFR/OR IFR CONDITIONS AGAIN TONIGHT. A FEW SCT
SHOWERS OR MAYBE A TSTM COULD AFFECT KABE LATER THIS AFTERNOON...BUT
THE PROB LOOKS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS ATTM. AMDS POSSIBLE.
WINDS SHOULD STAY MOSTLY SW INTO THE EVENING AND THEN GO MOSTLY
LIGHT S OVERNIGHT. WED...A SLOW RETURN TO VFR BY MID-MORNING THEN
SCT SHOWERS/TSTMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.


OUTLOOK...
WED NIGHT THROUGH THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. MVFR, POSSIBLY IFR,
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OR PDS OF
HEAVY RAIN. WIND WILL SHIFT FROM SW TO NW BEHIND CFP LATE WED
NIGHT/EARLY THU MRNG. HIGH CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL DETAILS. LOW
CONFIDENCE ON THE FACT THAT ALL SITES WILL SEE MVFR/IFR AND
TIMING.

FRI...MAINLY VFR WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY IN THE MORNING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SAT-SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. A BRISK NW WIND ON SAT OF 15-20
KT.  HIGH CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY SW/S ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY WITH SPEEDS
MOSTLY 10 TO 15 KTS. SEAS HAVE BEEN MOSTLY AROUND 3 FT ON THE OCEAN
AND 1 TO 2 FT OVER THE DEL BAY. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SCA
TONIGHT AND APPROACH SCA LATER WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
WED...BUT WITH THE WARMER AIR AND COOLER SEAS...THE WINDS/WAVE
GUIDANCE MAY BE TOO HIGH. WE OPT TO KEEP THE SEAS AT 3 TO 4 FT FOR
WED AND HOLD THE WINDS BELOW SCA FLAG LEVELS. A FEW G 20-25 ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION LATER WED. SCAT SHOWERS/TSTMS EXPECTED WED.

OUTLOOK...
HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES COAST WILL
BRING A PROLONGED SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH
THU. AS THIS FLOW STRENGTHENS WITH A CDFNT APPROACHING FROM THE W
ON THU, WINDS AND SEAS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE. THEREFORE, SEAS
AND WIND COULD BE AOA SCA CRITERIA BY THE START OF THE OUTLOOK PD. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY BE NEEDED FOR THIS PD ON THE OCEAN FRONT.
HOWEVER, WITH VERY WARM AIR OVER THE RELATIVELY COOL OCEAN AND
WAVE WATCH OVERDOING HEIGHTS OF LATE, HAVE DECIDED NOT TO POST
ANYTHING ATTM. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME SHWRS/TSTMS WED NIGHT INTO
THU ALG AND AHEAD OF THE CFP.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WATERS LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.
BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDE AND SHOULD FALL BELOW
SCA CRITERIA. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH
THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...NIERENBERG/O`HARA
MARINE...NIERENBERG/O`HARA