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000
FXUS61 KPHI 241447
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1047 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL TRACK UP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVES LOCALLY LATER WEDNESDAY,
THEN HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE DURING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM ESTF: NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE 830AM. WILL WIND GUSTS 2-3
MORE KTS HERE IN AN INTERIM 11 AM UPDATE.

OTHERWISE...TODAY IS ALREADY A MUCH BRIGHTER DAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE.

IT IS WINDY WITH NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 35 MPH IN THE POCONOS AND 25-30
MPH ELSEWHERE.

II WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AND BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
LATE OCTOBER. TEMPS ABOUT 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

LOOKS LIKE VARIABLE MIXED CLOUDS AND SUN THROUGH 20Z THEN CLEARING
MID-LATE AFTERNOON.



TONIGHT WILL BE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT. WINDS WILL LOSE THEIR
GUSTINESS AND BECOME LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. JUST SOME
CIRRUS AT TIMES HERE AND THERE. WE SHOULD RADIATE A BIT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION...IE
NEAR NORMAL LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY IN THE MORNING AND CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS
DEVELOPING DURING THE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME WEST AND GUST 20 TO
POSSIBLY 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT NOT QUITE AS STRONG AS
TODAY. A VERY NICE DAY WITH TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN
THOSE NUMBERS OF TODAY...IN OTHER WORDS STILL 5+ ABOVE NORMAL AS
WE HEAD FOR AN ABOVE NORMAL MONTH TEMPERATURE WISE...PROBABLY AT
LEAST 2 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL!

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ASSISTS IN FORCING ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND,
HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES
IN THE EAST DURING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING
EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY SHOULD SEND A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN A MUCH
WARMER AIRMASS ARRIVING, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW DURING THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL
BLEND FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND ENOUGH
DRY AIR BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN JUST PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS THEN
EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER, HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST TO
TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND,
WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED AS MIXING
DEEPENS /STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING WINDS AND CHILLIER TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT, WITH THE BULK OF
THE WAA PUSH AIMED TO OUR WEST. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS
TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH
OF THE ENERGY MAY SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW,
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. GIVEN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD, WARMER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AND A CONTINUITY/WPC GUIDANCE BLEND
RESULTS IN A BUMP UP IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TENDING
TO BUILD IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO ALREADY BE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 CLEARS LATE IN THE DAY. NW
WIND GUST AROUND 25 KT.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 20000 FT. NW WIND GUSTS DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 15 KT.

SATURDAY...VFR SCT CLOUDS AOA 5000 FT BECOME BKN CIGS NEAR 500 FT
MID OR LATE AFTERNOON.   WEST WIND GUST 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR. WEST - NORTHWEST WIND.

SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS, DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT IS STARTING TO LOOSEN UP A BIT BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE WATERS TODAY, IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.

SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY, IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE.

SEAS AND NORTHWEST WIND WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT... FALLING BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THIS EVENING.

SATURDAY...WEST WIND GUST 20 KT. NO HEADLINE ANTICIPATED FOR THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT AND SOME COOLING
COMBINED WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTING TO TIGHTEN UP SHOULD
RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS. OVERALL, BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
DURING THE DAY BUT THEN GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS COULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MET WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND BETTER MIXING. NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS, BUT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AT
NIGHT. THE SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD, BUT GIVEN AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT THE
5 FOOTERS SHOULD BE TOWARD THE OUTER EDGE OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44065 IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED FOR SERVICE AROUND JANUARY 12,
2015, WEATHER PERMITTING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 1046
SHORT TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 1046
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 1046
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 1046
EQUIPMENT...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 241227
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
827 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL TRACK UP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVES LOCALLY LATER WEDNESDAY,
THEN HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE DURING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE A MUCH BETTER DAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WERE.

IT WILL STILL BE WINDY WITH THE GUSTS OF 30-35 MPH IN THE POCONOS
NOW BECOMING WIDESPREAD GUSTS 25-30 MPH ELSEWHERE BY NOON.

II WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AND BE MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR
LATE OCTOBER.

SKIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY TO START THE DAY BUT WE SHOULD
START TO SEE SOME CLEARING OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE
NORTHEAST, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN THEY WERE
ON THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP INTO THE MID
60S, WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL BE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT. WINDS WILL LOSE THEIR
GUSTINESS AND BECOME LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES WILL
BE CLEARING OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WE SHOULD RADIATE A BIT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ASSISTS IN FORCING ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND,
HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES
IN THE EAST DURING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING
EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY SHOULD SEND A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN A MUCH
WARMER AIRMASS ARRIVING, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW DURING THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL
BLEND FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND ENOUGH DRY
AIR BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN JUST PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER, HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT, A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED AS MIXING DEEPENS /STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND
CHILLIER TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT, WITH THE BULK OF
THE WAA PUSH AIMED TO OUR WEST. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS
TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH
OF THE ENERGY MAY SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW,
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. GIVEN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD, WARMER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AND A CONTINUITY/WPC GUIDANCE BLEND
RESULTS IN A BUMP UP IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TENDING
TO BUILD IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO ALREADY BE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...CIGS PER THE MORE DEFINED 06Z/24 NAM TSECTIONS...2500-3500 T
NOW WILL EVENTUALLY LIFT TO WIDESPREAD VFR CIGS BETWEEN 4500-8000 FT
BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z THEN TO SCT-BKN CIRRUS AOA 20000 FT THIS EVENING.
NW WIND GUSTY AROUND 30 KT KMPO-POCONOS AND HIGH TERRAIN NW NJ WHILE
ELSEWHERE WILL INCREASE AGAIN TO AROUND 25 KT BY 16Z.

TONIGHT...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 20000 FT. NW WIND GUSTS DIMINISH TO LESS
THAN 15 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING WEST-
SOUTHWEST, THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 30
KNOTS, DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT IS STARTING TO LOOSEN UP A BIT BUT NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
REMAIN GUSTY OVER THE WATERS TODAY, IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT BUT DIMINISH.

SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY, IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY, FALLING BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT AND SOME COOLING
COMBINED WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTING TO TIGHTEN UP SHOULD
RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS. OVERALL, BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
DURING THE DAY BUT THEN GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS COULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MET WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND BETTER MIXING. NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS, BUT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AT
NIGHT. THE SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD, BUT GIVEN AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT THE
5 FOOTERS SHOULD BE TOWARD THE OUTER EDGE OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
BUOY 44065 IS CURRENTLY SCHEDULED FOR SERVICE AROUND JANUARY 12,
2015, WEATHER PERMITTING.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/MEOLA 827
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/MEOLA 827
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE/MEOLA 827
EQUIPMENT...DRAG 827







000
FXUS61 KPHI 240751
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
351 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS THEN FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD THE MID
ATLANTIC TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT CROSSES OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
THROUGH MONDAY, BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE
ACROSS THE PLAINS MONDAY WILL TRACK UP ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY, PULLING A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH LATER MONDAY NIGHT
TUESDAY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ARRIVES LOCALLY LATER WEDNESDAY,
THEN HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE DURING THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY WILL BE A MUCH BETTER DAY THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS WERE.
IT WILL STILL BE WINDY BUT IT WILL BE CONSIDERABLY WARMER AND BE
MUCH CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR LATE OCTOBER.

SOME VERY LIGHT SHOWERS MAY MOVE INTO THE NORTHWESTERN AREAS EARLY
THIS MORNING. WE WILL THEN REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS
DRY AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO THE REGION ON THE CONTINUED NORTHWEST
FLOW.

TODAY LOOKS TO BE THE LAST OF THE PRETTY WINDY DAYS AS THE LOW
PUSHES INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY TODAY WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 20-25 MPH.

SKIES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY CLOUDY TO START THE DAY BUT WE SHOULD START
TO SEE SOME CLEARING OUT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST,
ESPECIALLY TOWARD THIS AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER TODAY THAN THEY WERE ON
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM UP INTO THE MID 60S,
WITH SOME UPPER 50S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
TONIGHT WILL BE A FAIRLY QUIET NIGHT. WINDS WILL LOSE THEIR
GUSTINESS AND BECOME LIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SKIES WILL
BE CLEARING OUT THROUGH THE NIGHT AND WE SHOULD RADIATE A BIT.

TEMPERATURES WILL RESPOND TO THE CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS AND
WILL DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO MID 40S ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS
THE PLAINS SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS ASSISTS IN FORCING ANOTHER
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND,
HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES
IN THE EAST DURING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING
EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY SHOULD SEND A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH RESULTING IN A MUCH
WARMER AIRMASS ARRIVING, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY
WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO FOLLOW DURING THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL
BLEND FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC
GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND ENOUGH DRY
AIR BELOW THE CLOUD LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN JUST PERHAPS A FEW
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE FAR NORTH. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS THEN EXPECTED
TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER, HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE
LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A
TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A
RESULT, A BREEZY DAY IS EXPECTED AS MIXING DEEPENS /STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE
THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND
CHILLIER TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO PRECIPITATION
IS ANTICIPATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE WARM FRONT, WITH THE BULK OF
THE WAA PUSH AIMED TO OUR WEST. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS
TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE
SHIFTING TO OUR EAST WEDNESDAY AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO
THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH
OF THE ENERGY MAY SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW,
KEPT THE SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS FROM WEST TO EAST. GIVEN THE
SOUTHERLY FLOW AND WARMER AIR CONTINUING TO ADVECT NORTHWARD, WARMER
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR AND A CONTINUITY/WPC GUIDANCE BLEND
RESULTS IN A BUMP UP IN THE HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. THE
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST THURSDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE TENDING
TO BUILD IN. THE NEXT SYSTEM IS THEN FORECAST TO ALREADY BE MOVING
ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS HAVE
TRICKLED INTO KABE, KRDG AND KPHL WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE OFF AND ON THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT EXPECTED IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR BY 14Z. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR FROM 14Z ON THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE TAF.

WINDS HAVE LOST THEIR GUSTINESS OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10-15 KNOTS ANDI GUSTS UP TO 24 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS BECOMING
WEST-SOUTHWEST, THEN WEST-NORTHWEST AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AT 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
30 KNOTS, DIMINISHING TO 5-10 KNOTS AT NIGHT.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GRADIENT IS STARTING TO LOOSEN UP A BIT BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN
GUSTY OVER THE WATERS TODAY, IN THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE. WE START
TO LOSE THE GUSTS LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON OVER THE WATERS.
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT.

SEAS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THE DAY, IN THE 5 TO 6 FOOT RANGE.
SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGH THE DAY, FALLING BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA BY THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH AT NIGHT AND SOME COOLING
COMBINED WITH A PRESSURE GRADIENT STARTING TO TIGHTEN UP SHOULD
RESULT IN AN UPTICK IN THE WINDS. OVERALL, BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
DURING THE DAY BUT THEN GUSTS TO NEAR 25 KNOTS COULD DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA IS ANTICIPATED TO BE MET WITH
A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT IN PLACE AND BETTER MIXING. NORTHWEST
WINDS SHOULD GUST UP TO 30 KNOTS, BUT THEN GRADUALLY DIMINISH AT
NIGHT. THE SEAS WILL ALSO BUILD, BUT GIVEN AN OFFSHORE COMPONENT THE
5 FOOTERS SHOULD BE TOWARD THE OUTER EDGE OF THE COASTAL WATERS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 240616
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
216 AM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER
TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC TODAY AND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN
BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, EVENTUALLY
MOVING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT REACHING OUR AREA LATER
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT, PASSING WELL TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE POCONOS. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT THE REGION TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE OVER
DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TONIGHT`S MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS SHOULD FALL MAINLY INTO THE 40S WITH
A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. GRADUAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, SOME THIN CIRRUS FROM
THE WEST MAY OVERSPREAD OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.

THE INCREASING SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES UP TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR OCTOBER 24.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AS
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REACH THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, AND OTHER THAN A FEW
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD, A QUIET NIGHT IS
EXPECTED. FOR THE MOST PART, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
FOR THE AREA, EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR SATURDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME;
ALTHOUGH, A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
OUR AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. WE
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH PASS THROUGH
THE AREA. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL, THOUGH, AS THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE AND MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES BY TO OUR
NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
AGAIN BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WE WILL BE PRECIP-FREE
WITH AMPLE SUN, BUT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR A
BREEZY SUNDAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE AND
GUSTING AT TIMES UPWARDS OF 25 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA, ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. USING A BLEND OF WPC
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY, WE EXPECT TUESDAY`S MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE FORECAST AREA. A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE,
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. WE HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA; ALTHOUGH, MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS BY TO OUR NORTH.
WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE INTO THURSDAY, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT COOLER WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE, MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS. SOME MVFR CEILINGS
HAVE TRICKLED INTO KABE AND KRDG WITH MVFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR
AROUND 14Z AND THEN REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.

WINDS HAVE LOST THEIR GUSTINESS OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN AROUND 10
KNOTS. WINDS WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY WITH SPEEDS
AROUND 10-15 KNOTS ANDI GUSTS UP TO 24 KNOTS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE FAIRLY QUICKLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVE/NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT, MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN NJ AND THE
POCONOS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT
15 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALES SO LET THE GALE WARNING
EXPIRE. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS REMAINED IN THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME, BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...KLINE/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON/KLINE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 240124
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT REACHING OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT, PASSING WELL TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

JUST A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS REMAIN IN THE POCONOS. OTHERWISE,
EXPECT THE REGION TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO
MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THE CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS POSSIBLE OVER
DELMARVA AND FAR SOUTHERN NJ.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TONIGHT`S MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS SHOULD FALL MAINLY INTO THE 40S WITH
A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. GRADUAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, SOME THIN CIRRUS FROM
THE WEST MAY OVERSPREAD OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.

THE INCREASING SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES UP TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR OCTOBER 24.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AS
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REACH THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, AND OTHER THAN A FEW
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD, A QUIET NIGHT IS
EXPECTED. FOR THE MOST PART, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
FOR THE AREA, EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR SATURDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME;
ALTHOUGH, A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
OUR AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. WE
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH PASS THROUGH
THE AREA. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL, THOUGH, AS THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE AND MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES BY TO OUR
NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
AGAIN BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WE WILL BE PRECIP-FREE
WITH AMPLE SUN, BUT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR A
BREEZY SUNDAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE AND
GUSTING AT TIMES UPWARDS OF 25 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA, ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. USING A BLEND OF WPC
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY, WE EXPECT TUESDAY`S MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE FORECAST AREA. A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE,
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. WE HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA; ALTHOUGH, MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS BY TO OUR NORTH.
WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE INTO THURSDAY, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT COOLER WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE, MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...PREDOMINATELY VFR ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL
AND SOUTH. FOR KRDG AND KABE, A FEW LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z. AFTER 09Z, THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 4000
AND 8000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE FROM NW TO SE. AS IT DOES
SO, THERE IS A RISK THAT LOWER, MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP BEFORE
SUNRISE. THINK THIS IS MOST LIKELY AT KRDG AND KABE, BUT THERE IS
A SMALL RISK TOO AT KTTN AND KPNE.

THE BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20KT SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS
IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVE/NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT, MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN NJ AND THE
POCONOS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT
15 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALES SO LET THE GALE WARNING
EXPIRE. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS REMAINED IN THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME, BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON/KLINE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 232322
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
722 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT REACHING OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT, PASSING WELL TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

PRECIPITATION HAS MOSTLY MOVED OUT OF OUR REGION WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE POCONOS. VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
FURTHER UPSTREAM MOVING SOUTH, MAY ALSO MOVE INTO THE POCONOS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SO MADE NO CHANGES TO THE POPS AT THIS TIME.

THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS
POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT READING TO COATESVILLE TO DELAWARE BAY
SOUTHWESTWARD.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TONIGHT`S MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS SHOULD FALL MAINLY INTO THE 40S WITH
A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. GRADUAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, SOME THIN CIRRUS FROM
THE WEST MAY OVERSPREAD OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.

THE INCREASING SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES UP TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR OCTOBER 24.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AS
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REACH THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, AND OTHER THAN A FEW
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD, A QUIET NIGHT IS
EXPECTED. FOR THE MOST PART, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
FOR THE AREA, EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR SATURDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME;
ALTHOUGH, A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
OUR AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. WE
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH PASS THROUGH
THE AREA. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL, THOUGH, AS THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE AND MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES BY TO OUR
NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
AGAIN BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WE WILL BE PRECIP-FREE
WITH AMPLE SUN, BUT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR A
BREEZY SUNDAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE AND
GUSTING AT TIMES UPWARDS OF 25 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA, ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. USING A BLEND OF WPC
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY, WE EXPECT TUESDAY`S MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE FORECAST AREA. A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE,
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. WE HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA; ALTHOUGH, MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS BY TO OUR NORTH.
WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE INTO THURSDAY, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT COOLER WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE, MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

FOR THE 00Z TAF PERIOD...PREDOMINATELY VFR ESPECIALLY FROM KPHL
AND SOUTH. FOR KRDG AND KABE, A FEW LINGERING MVFR CEILINGS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGH 02Z. AFTER 09Z, THE MID LEVEL CLOUDS BETWEEN 4000
AND 8000 FT AGL ARE EXPECTED TO ERODE FROM NW TO SE. AS IT DOES
SO, THERE IS A RISK THAT LOWER, MVFR CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP BEFORE
SUNRISE. THINK THIS IS MOST LIKELY AT KRDG AND KABE, BUT THERE IS
A SMALL RISK TOO AT KTTN AND KPNE.

THE BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20KT SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS
IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVE/NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT, MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN NJ AND THE
POCONOS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT
15 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALES SO LET THE GALE WARNING
EXPIRE. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS REMAINED IN THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME, BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON/KLINE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 232209
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
609 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT REACHING OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT, PASSING WELL TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

PRECIPITATION HAS MOSTLY MOVED OUT OF OUR REGION WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS IN THE POCONOS. VERY LIGHT SHOWERS
FURTHER UPSTREAM MOVING SOUTH, MAY ALSO MOVE INTO THE POCONOS OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. SO MADE NO CHANGES TO THE POPS AT THIS TIME.

THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS
POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT READING TO COATESVILLE TO DELAWARE BAY
SOUTHWESTWARD.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TONIGHT`S MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS SHOULD FALL MAINLY INTO THE 40S WITH
A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. GRADUAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, SOME THIN CIRRUS FROM
THE WEST MAY OVERSPREAD OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.

THE INCREASING SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES UP TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR OCTOBER 24.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AS
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REACH THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, AND OTHER THAN A FEW
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD, A QUIET NIGHT IS
EXPECTED. FOR THE MOST PART, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
FOR THE AREA, EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR SATURDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME;
ALTHOUGH, A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
OUR AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. WE
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH PASS THROUGH
THE AREA. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL, THOUGH, AS THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE AND MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES BY TO OUR
NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
AGAIN BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WE WILL BE PRECIP-FREE
WITH AMPLE SUN, BUT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR A
BREEZY SUNDAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE AND
GUSTING AT TIMES UPWARDS OF 25 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA, ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. USING A BLEND OF WPC
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY, WE EXPECT TUESDAY`S MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE FORECAST AREA. A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE,
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. WE HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA; ALTHOUGH, MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS BY TO OUR NORTH.
WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE INTO THURSDAY, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT COOLER WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE, MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS HAVE RETURNED TO ALL THE TAF SITES AND SHOULD
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD. GRADUAL CLEARING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.

THE BREEZY CONDITIONS, WITH GUSTS ABOVE 20KT SHOULD CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS
IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
ON FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVE/NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT, MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN NJ AND THE
POCONOS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT
15 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS HAVE DECREASED BELOW GALES SO LET THE GALE WARNING
EXPIRE. HOWEVER, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO SLOWLY MOVE AWAY
FROM THE REGION.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS REMAINED IN THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. THE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME, BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431-
     450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...IOVINO/JOHNSON/KLINE
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON/KLINE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 231929
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
329 PM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
OFFSHORE LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY
TRACK NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT, REACHING THE CANADIAN MARITIMES LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTHWEST WILL BUILD
TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD
FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS
ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, EVENTUALLY MOVING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE PLAINS
STATES WILL ALLOW A WARM FRONT TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT REACHING OUR AREA LATER WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OUT TO SEA TONIGHT, PASSING WELL TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD. A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING AROUND
THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVERHEAD AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

THERE WAS NO PRECIPITATION INDICATED IN NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND OR
DELAWARE AT MID AFTERNOON. MOST OF THE REMAINING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN
OUR FORECAST AREA WAS OVER NEW JERSEY WITH SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS OVER
EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE POCONO REGION.

THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW
CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM OUR REGION. THE CLOUD COVER IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERHEAD DURING THE NIGHT WITH SOME BREAKS
POSSIBLE FROM ABOUT READING TO COATESVILLE TO DELAWARE BAY
SOUTHWESTWARD.

THE STATISTICAL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CLOSE WITH TONIGHT`S MINIMUM
TEMPERATURE FORECAST. READINGS SHOULD FALL MAINLY INTO THE 40S WITH
A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY. GRADUAL CLEARING IS
EXPECTED FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. HOWEVER, SOME THIN CIRRUS FROM
THE WEST MAY OVERSPREAD OUR REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST. SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST
TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH.

THE INCREASING SUNSHINE ON FRIDAY SHOULD BRING AFTERNOON
TEMPERATURES UP TO NORMAL LEVELS FOR OCTOBER 24.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RELATIVELY QUIET WEATHER WILL START OFF THE LONG TERM PERIOD, AS
SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE REACH THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES, AND OTHER THAN A FEW
CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE MOVING OVERHEAD, A QUIET NIGHT IS
EXPECTED. FOR THE MOST PART, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE A LITTLE
COOLER THAN RECENT NIGHTS, WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S
FOR THE AREA, EXCEPT SOME UPPER 30S ACROSS OUR NORTHERN ZONES.

FOR SATURDAY, THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
SOUTHWEST WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE OUR REGION THROUGH THE DAYTIME;
ALTHOUGH, A COLD FRONT AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE APPROACHING
OUR AREA FROM AROUND THE GREAT LAKES BY SATURDAY EVENING. WE
MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST FOR SATURDAY WITH AMPLE SUNSHINE AND
PLEASANT DAYTIME TEMPS INTO THE 60S FOR THE REGION, AND WE ALSO KEPT
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS IN THE PICTURE FOR OUR FAR NORTHERN
ZONES INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT AND TROUGH PASS THROUGH
THE AREA. ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MINIMAL, THOUGH, AS THERE IS
LIMITED MOISTURE AND MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY PASSES BY TO OUR
NORTH. GOING INTO SUNDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW AND SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ACROSS THE NEW ENGLAND STATES AND
SOUTHEAST CANADA, WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR SOUTH AND WEST
AGAIN BUILDS TOWARD THE MID ATLANTIC REGION. WE WILL BE PRECIP-FREE
WITH AMPLE SUN, BUT A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE FOR A
BREEZY SUNDAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS IN THE 15 TO 20 MPH RANGE AND
GUSTING AT TIMES UPWARDS OF 25 MPH.

SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION
MONDAY, WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING OVERHEAD. THIS PATTERN
WILL ALLOW FOR SOME MODERATING TEMPERATURES ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA, ESPECIALLY INTO TUESDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE
AND A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH OF THE REGION. USING A BLEND OF WPC
GUIDANCE WITH CONTINUITY, WE EXPECT TUESDAY`S MAX TEMPS TO REACH THE
UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S FOR THE FORECAST AREA. A RATHER PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN CONTINUES INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE,
WITH A COLD FRONT APPROACHING OUR REGION FROM THE WEST AND ITS
ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE LIFTING NORTH FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST AND
GREAT LAKES INTO SOUTHERN CANADA. WE HAVE KEPT SOME LOW CHANCE POPS
FOR SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY TO WEDNESDAY EVENING AS
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA; ALTHOUGH, MUCH OF THE UPPER LEVEL
SUPPORT AND FORCING WITH THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO PASS BY TO OUR NORTH.
WITH THE FRONT OFFSHORE INTO THURSDAY, WEAK HIGH PRESSURE MAY BUILD
TOWARD THE REGION. THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE A BIT COOLER WITH DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES CLOSER TO AVERAGE, MAINLY IN THE 60S.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS (WITH BASES AROUND 2000 TO 3000 FEET) ARE
EXPECTED TO LINGER OVER OUR REGION INTO THIS EVENING, ESPECIALLY
AROUND KABE, KTTN AND KACY. OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED
THOUGH TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. GRADUAL CLEARING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 12 TO 16 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S IS
FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING. A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 12 KNOTS IS
EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. THE NORTHWEST WIND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE ON
FRIDAY WITH SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS UNDER 10
KNOTS.

SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS. ISOLATED SHWRS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
EVE/NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT, MAINLY AFFECTING NORTHERN NJ AND THE
POCONOS.

SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS AT
15 TO 25 KNOTS.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WITH WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
UNDER 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
WIND SPEEDS WERE DECREASING VERY SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON. WE WILL LET
THE GALE WARNING PLAY ITSELF OUT UNTIL 600 PM ALTHOUGH CONDITIONS
ARE MARGINAL AT MANY LOCATIONS. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS LOW PRESSURE WELL OFF THE COAST
MOVES SLOWLY TOWARD NOVA SCOTIA AND AWAY FROM OUR REGION.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS REMAINED IN THE 6 TO 10 FOOT RANGE
AT MID AFTERNOON. THE WAVES ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE SLOWLY DURING
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE AT
SUB-ADVISORY LEVELS AT THIS TIME, BUT SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS ARE EXPECTED.

SUNDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET FOR OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND DELAWARE BAY, WITH NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING INTO
THE 25 TO 30 KNOT RANGE.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KLINE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...KLINE
AVIATION...IOVINO/KLINE
MARINE...IOVINO/KLINE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 231550
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1150 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN MOVES INTO THE NOVA SCOTIA
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A
WARM FRONT MAY LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 225 MILES OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST
LATE THIS MORNING AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA DURING
THE BALANCE OF THE DAY. THE LOW WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION GRADUALLY.

IT SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OVER OUR AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON WITH A
NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO ABOUT 30 MPH.
THE CHILLY NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE LACK OF SUNSHINE WILL PREVENT
TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS COVERED MUCH OF NEW JERSEY AND ADJACENT
PORTIONS OF EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND DELAWARE LATE THIS MORNING.
AS THE LOW DRIFTS FARTHER AWAY, DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRAWN
INTO OUR REGION ON THE NORTHWEST FLOW AND THERE WILL BE A
DECREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
SKIES WILL START TO BECOME LESS CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOWS MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

ALL RAIN SHOULD HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE REGION AND WE SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT TONIGHT BUT WILL
NOT GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, KEEPING A CHILL IN THE AIR.

LOWS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING AWAY AND WEAKENING SOME
FRIDAY. THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DRIVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF
IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES IN THE EAST
DURING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
SHOULD SEND A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATER WEDNESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS
WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...IT APPEARS DRYING WORKS IN AS THE CLOSED LOW AND
SURFACE LOW SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH TIME. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH A DECREASE IS
ANTICIPATED QUICKLY BY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING, HOWEVER A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN PERHAPS SOME CLOUDS FOR A
TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
SHOULD RESULT IN PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH.
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER,
HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF
RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED AND
SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WITH THE CLOSING LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND, WHICH
MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND,
WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY SHOULD OCCUR AS MIXING
DEEPENS /STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING WINDS AND CHILLIER TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE
NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR
EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE ENERGY MAY
SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW, WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FROM WEST
TO EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FINAL AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW DROP INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN DRYING DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LIFT SOLIDLY INTO THE VFR
RANGE AT THAT TIME. THE VFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 12 TO 16 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST TO
AROUND 25 KNOTS AT TIMES. THE WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH
A BIT FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE ABOUT 8 TO 14 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR A FEW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHWEST
WINDS SATURDAY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, BUT DIMINISH AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KNOTS ACROSS THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY, GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO
30 KNOTS ACROSS THE UPPER BAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE LOSE THE GALE FORCE GUSTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME AFTER THE
GALES COME DOWN. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE SEAS
SUBSIDING. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.

SATURDAY...THE WINDS WINDS TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT, BUT THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST AT NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE, WITH
THE CONDITIONS BEING JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL LATER AT
NIGHT.

SUNDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING. THIS WILL ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER WITH THE HIGHEST SETS FARTHER OFFSHORE GIVEN THE
WIND FLOW.

MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OCCURRED THIS MORNING ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE OCEANFRONT, ON THE BACK BAYS, ON RARITAN BAY
AND ON LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH WATER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE COMING HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO







000
FXUS61 KPHI 231352
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
952 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN MOVES INTO THE NOVA SCOTIA
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A
WARM FRONT MAY LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST
THIS MORNING AND IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT OUT TO SEA DURING THE
BALANCE OF THE DAY. THE LOW WILL LOSE ITS INFLUENCE OVER OUR
REGION GRADUALLY.

IT SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY OVER OUR AREA FOR TODAY WITH A NORTHWEST
WIND AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 OR 35 MPH. THE CHILLY
NORTHWEST FLOW AND THE LACK OF SUNSHINE WILL PREVENT TEMPERATURES
FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S THIS AFTERNOON.

AN AREA OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WAS DROPPING INTO THE POCONOS, THE
LEHIGH VALLEY, BUCKS COUNTY AND CENTRAL NEW JERSEY AROUND 930 AM.
IT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTHWESTWARD AND IT WILL DISSIPATE
GRADUALLY. ONE FINAL AREA OF SHOWERS IS FORECAST TO MOVE FROM
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND THE HUDSON VALLEY DOWN INTO OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES FOR THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE IT
BEGINS TO DISSIPATE.

THE TREND THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WILL BE A DECREASING CHANCE OF
SHOWERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
SKIES WILL START TO BECOME LESS CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOWS MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

ALL RAIN SHOULD HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE REGION AND WE SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT TONIGHT BUT WILL
NOT GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, KEEPING A CHILL IN THE AIR.

LOWS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING AWAY AND WEAKENING SOME
FRIDAY. THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DRIVES INTO
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF
IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT.
THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES IN THE EAST
DURING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
SHOULD SEND A WARM FRONT TO OUR NORTH, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES
LATER WEDNESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY,
THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS
WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING
OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...IT APPEARS DRYING WORKS IN AS THE CLOSED LOW AND
SURFACE LOW SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH TIME. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH A DECREASE IS
ANTICIPATED QUICKLY BY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING, HOWEVER A LACK OF
DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN PERHAPS SOME CLOUDS FOR A
TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN
SHOULD RESULT IN PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH.
ANOTHER CLOSED LOW IS THEN EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER,
HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF
RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE 00Z NAM/ECMWF SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED AND
SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WITH THE CLOSING LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND, WHICH
MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND,
WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY SHOULD OCCUR AS MIXING
DEEPENS /STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH
DECREASING WINDS AND CHILLIER TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE
NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR
EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE ENERGY MAY
SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A
BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW, WENT
WITH SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FROM WEST
TO EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO VARY BETWEEN MVFR AND VFR INTO THE EARLY
AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE FINAL AREAS OF RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE DEPARTING COASTAL LOW DROP INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHEAST.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN DRYING DURING THE MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON WITH CEILINGS EXPECTED TO LIFT SOLIDLY INTO THE VFR
RANGE AT THAT TIME. THE VFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT WITH PERHAPS SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER DEVELOPING.

A NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 12 TO 16 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED TO GUST TO
25 TO 30 KNOTS AT TIMES. THE WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH A
BIT FOR TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
ABOUT 8 TO 14 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND 20
KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR A FEW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHWEST
WINDS SATURDAY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, SHIFT TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY
INCREASE TO NEAR 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, BUT DIMINISH AT
NIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR
THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
40 KNOTS ACROSS THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY, GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO
30 KNOTS ACROSS THE UPPER BAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING
AND IT LOOKS LIKE WE LOSE THE GALE FORCE GUSTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME AFTER THE
GALES COME DOWN. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE SEAS
SUBSIDING. THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT
LEAST A PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.

SATURDAY...THE WINDS WINDS TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT, BUT THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST AT NIGHT BEHIND
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE, WITH
THE CONDITIONS BEING JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL LATER AT
NIGHT.

SUNDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING. THIS WILL ALSO BUILD THE
SEAS, HOWEVER WITH THE HIGHEST SETS FARTHER OFFSHORE GIVEN THE
WIND FLOW.

MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
SPOTTY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING OCCURRED THIS MORNING ALONG THE NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE OCEANFRONT, ON THE BACK BAYS, ON RARITAN BAY
AND ON LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PUSH WATER AWAY FROM THE COAST AND NO TIDAL FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED DURING THE COMING HIGH TIDE CYCLES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...IOVINO









000
FXUS61 KPHI 231101
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
701 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN MOVES INTO THE NOVA SCOTIA
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE BOTH LOCATED OFFSHORE.
THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY.

ANOTHER RAW AND COLD FALL DAY IS IN STORE FOR OUR AREA TODAY.

CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR A BIT TOWARDS LATE AFTERNOON FROM
THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AS THE LOWS LIFT NORTH. HOWEVER, IT
WILL NOT HELP MUCH TODAY AS WE ARE NOT LIKELY TO SEE THE SUN.

THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS PRETTY TIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BE
AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE TOWARD EVENING.

RAIN IS STARTING TO ROTATE BACK INTO THE REGION AND WE WILL
CONTINUE TO SEE OFF AND ON SHOWERS THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY LIGHT RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A
FEW STEADIER SHOWERS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER COLD DAY ON TAP AS WE DON`T SEE MUCH SUN AND WITH THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IT WILL BE HARD TO GET TEMPERATURES TO RISE ALL THAT
MUCH. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH SOME 40S
ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
SKIES WILL START TO BECOME LESS CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOWS MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

ALL RAIN SHOULD HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE REGION AND WE SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT TONIGHT BUT WILL
NOT GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, KEEPING A CHILL IN THE AIR.

LOWS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING AWAY AND WEAKENING SOME
FRIDAY. THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DRIVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF
IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES IN THE EAST DURING
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD SEND A WARM
FRONT TO OUR NORTH, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z
WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...IT APPEARS DRYING WORKS IN AS THE CLOSED LOW AND
SURFACE LOW SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH TIME. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH A DECREASE IS
ANTICIPATED QUICKLY BY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING, HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN PERHAPS SOME CLOUDS FOR A TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD RESULT
IN PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER, HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST
TO TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE 00Z
NAM/ECMWF SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WITH THE
CLOSING LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY
DAY SHOULD OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS /STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO
BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CHILLIER
TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW
00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR
EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE ENERGY MAY
SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BROKEN
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW, WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE TERMINALS. RAIN IS
SPOTTY AND STARTING TO PUSH SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING.
SHOWERS WILL BE ON AGAIN/OFF AGAIN THROUGH THE MORNING AND INTO THE
EARLY AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.

CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND SHOULD BECOME VFR THIS AFTERNOON AT THE TERMINALS.

THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUSTINESS SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE
LATER THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR A FEW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHWEST WINDS
SATURDAY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY INCREASE TO NEAR
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, BUT DIMINISH AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
UPPER DELAWARE BAY.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
KNOTS ACROSS THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY, GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 30
KNOTS ACROSS THE UPPER BAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND IT
LOOKS LIKE WE LOSE THE GALE FORCE GUSTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME AFTER THE GALES COME
DOWN. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE SEAS SUBSIDING.
THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.

SATURDAY...THE WINDS WINDS TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT, BUT THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST AT NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE, WITH THE
CONDITIONS BEING JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL LATER AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING. THIS WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS,
HOWEVER WITH THE HIGHEST SETS FARTHER OFFSHORE GIVEN THE WIND FLOW.

MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER, WITH A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TODAY, WE SHOULD SEE THE WATER START
TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE COAST AS OPPOSED TO PUSHING TOWARDS THE
COAST.

RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE ARE EXPECTING WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR
FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TIDES AND ISSUE AN ADVISORY IF NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MEOLA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 230756
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY TRACKS
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT, THEN MOVES INTO THE NOVA SCOTIA
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. A WARM
FRONT MAY LIFT TO OUR NORTH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY, THEN A COLD
FRONT ARRIVES WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE BOTH LOCATED OFFSHORE.
THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TODAY.

ANOTHER RAW AND COLD FALL DAY IS IN STORE FOR OUR AREA TODAY.

CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TODAY. THE CLOUDS WILL START TO CLEAR A BIT FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
THE NORTHEAST AS THE LOWS LIFT NORTH. HOWEVER, IT WILL NOT HELP MUCH
TODAY AS WE ARE NOT LIKELY TO SEE THE SUN.

THE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO GUST TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS PRETTY TIGHT. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND WILL BE
AROUND 10 TO 20 KNOTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
WINDS WILL START TO SUBSIDE TOWARD EVENING.

RAIN HAS LARGELY ENDED AS A DRY SLOT, ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL
LOW, HAS ENTERED OUR AREA. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE
REGION THROUGH TODAY BUT SHOULD MOSTLY END BY THIS AFTERNOON. MOSTLY
LIGHT RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A FEW STEADIER SHOWERS REMAIN
POSSIBLE.

ANOTHER COLD DAY ON TAP AS WE DON`T SEE MUCH SUN AND WITH THE GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS IT WILL BE HARD TO GET TEMPERATURES TO RISE ALL THAT
MUCH. TEMPERATURES WILL REACH INTO THE 50S TODAY WITH SOME 40S
ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
SKIES WILL START TO BECOME LESS CLOUDY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA, AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER
LOWS MAKE THEIR WAY TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST.

ALL RAIN SHOULD HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE REGION AND WE SHOULD REMAIN
DRY THROUGH THE NIGHT. WINDS WILL DECREASE A BIT TONIGHT BUT WILL
NOT GO LIGHT AND VARIABLE, KEEPING A CHILL IN THE AIR.

LOWS WILL LARGELY BE IN THE 40S ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A CLOSED LOW IS FORECAST TO BE MOVING AWAY AND WEAKENING SOME
FRIDAY. THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS
NEAR NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MAY THEN MOVE
ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY DRIVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
DOWN INTO THE NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF
IT LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ACROSS NEW ENGLAND. A COLD FRONT TIED TO
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN ARRIVES IN THE EAST DURING
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN THE
NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD LATE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. A RETURN FLOW MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY SHOULD SEND A WARM
FRONT TO OUR NORTH, THEN A COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER WEDNESDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z
WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY...IT APPEARS DRYING WORKS IN AS THE CLOSED LOW AND
SURFACE LOW SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST, AND THIS SHOULD RESULT
IN A DECREASE IN CLOUDS WITH TIME. A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT
INITIALLY WILL RESULT IN BREEZY CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH A DECREASE IS
ANTICIPATED QUICKLY BY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO EXPAND
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS
TO SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE EVENING, HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP
MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY RESULT IN PERHAPS SOME CLOUDS FOR A TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN SHOULD RESULT
IN PERHAPS AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS THE NORTH. ANOTHER CLOSED LOW
IS THEN EXPECTED TO INFLUENCE OUR WEATHER, HOWEVER THIS IS FORECAST
TO TRACK ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INSTEAD OF RIGHT OVER OUR AREA. THE 00Z
NAM/ECMWF SHOW A MORE AMPLIFIED AND SOUTHERLY SOLUTION WITH THE
CLOSING LOW NEAR NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MAKES SENSE CONSIDERING THE
AMPLIFYING RIDGE UPSTREAM. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO
INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY
DAY SHOULD OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS /STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES/ UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO
BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT WITH DECREASING WINDS AND CHILLIER
TEMPERATURES.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE ARRIVES IN THE EAST
ALLOWING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
WARMING CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY IN THE WAKE
OF A WARM FRONT AND AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES
WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW
00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

FOR WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE SHIFTING TO OUR
EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
TENNESSEE VALLEY. A COLD FRONT TIED TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD BE
ARRIVING INTO OUR AREA DURING WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE ENERGY MAY
SLIDE TO OUR NORTHWEST, HOWEVER THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A BROKEN
BAND OF SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. FOR NOW, WENT WITH
SLIGHT CHC TO LOW CHC POPS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FROM WEST TO EAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE TERMINALS. RAIN IS
FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS TIME AS A DRY SLOT HAS MOVED INTO THE REGION.
THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION THROUGH THIS
MORNING, ENDING BY THIS AFTERNOON. RAIN WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT.

CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND SHOULD BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS.

THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUSTINESS SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE
LATER THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 10-15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO AROUND
20 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL. THERE IS A LOW CHC FOR A FEW
SHOWERS LATE SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. SOUTHWEST WINDS
SATURDAY AT 10 KNOTS OR LESS, SHIFT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE WIND SPEEDS SUNDAY INCREASE TO NEAR
15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS, BUT DIMINISH AT NIGHT.

MONDAY...VFR. WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS LESS THAN 10 KNOTS.

&&

.MARINE...
GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6PM ON THE OCEAN WATERS AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
UPPER DELAWARE BAY.

A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS THE AREA
WATERS. NORTH TO NORTHWEST WINDS 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40
KNOTS ACROSS THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY, GUSTS WILL BE CLOSER TO 30
KNOTS ACROSS THE UPPER BAY. WINDS WILL DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND IT
LOOKS LIKE WE LOSE THE GALE FORCE GUSTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT. A SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A TIME AFTER THE GALES COME
DOWN. SEAS WILL SUBSIDE GRADUALLY TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT RELAXES. THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN THE SEAS SUBSIDING.
THEREFORE, A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE NEEDED FOR AT LEAST A
PORTION OF THIS TIME FRAME.

SATURDAY...THE WINDS WINDS TURN MORE WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT, BUT THEN SHIFT TO WEST AND NORTHWEST AT NIGHT BEHIND THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED TO INCREASE, WITH THE
CONDITIONS BEING JUST BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA UNTIL LATER AT NIGHT.

SUNDAY...A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT UNDER A NORTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALONG WITH DECENT MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS OCCURRING. THIS WILL ALSO BUILD THE SEAS,
HOWEVER WITH THE HIGHEST SETS FARTHER OFFSHORE GIVEN THE WIND FLOW.

MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDE THIS MORNING WILL BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN YESTERDAYS HIGH TIDE. HOWEVER, WITH A STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW CONTINUING TODAY, WE SHOULD SEE THE WATER START
TO PUSH AWAY FROM THE COAST AS OPPOSED TO PUSHING TOWARDS THE
COAST.

RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE ARE EXPECTING WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR
FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE TIDES AND ISSUE AN ADVISORY IF NEEDED.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MEOLA





000
FXUS61 KPHI 230556
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
156 AM EDT THU OCT 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OFF THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER TODAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE INTO NOVA
SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD OUR
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE CLOSED UPPER LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE BOTH LOCATED
OFFSHORE. THESE FEATURES WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY LIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THIS MORNING.

CLOUDY SKIES REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION AND IT IS STILL PRETTY GUSTY
IN THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST FLOW. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FALL
INTO THE 40S BY DAYBREAK.

RAIN ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOMETIMES THE
RAIN WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN AT OTHER TIMES, BUT MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. A DRY SLOT HAS MADE ITS WAY
INLAND AND WILL PROVIDE A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION
EARLY THIS MORNING. RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE AREA
THROUGH THIS MORNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ENTIRE CWA SHOULD
BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE, WITH LESSER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE
IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOS...AND WESTERN BERKS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TODAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONG TERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS ARE BEING OBSERVED AT THE TERMINALS. RAIN IS
FAIRLY LIGHT AT THIS TIME AS A DRY SLOT HAS STARTING TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THE RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE THROUGH THE REGION
THROUGH THIS MORNING, ENDING BY THIS AFTERNOON.

CEILINGS WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH THIS MORNING BUT WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT AND SHOULD BECOME VFR BY LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON AT THE
TERMINALS.

THE WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTH NORTHWEST THIS MORNING AND WILL
REMAIN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SUSTAINED
WINDS WILL BE AROUND 12 TO 18 KNOTS WITH GUSTS IN THE 25 TO 30
KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON. THE GUSTINESS SHOULD START TO SUBSIDE
LATER THIS EVENING.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20
KNOTS. SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE, LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM FOR OUR OCEAN WATERS AND
FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE
SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH TO NORTHWEST
WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS ANTICIPATED. A
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER PART OF
DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY EVENING
PEAKED JUST AT OR SLIGHTLY UNDER MINOR FLOOD LEVELS ALONG THE
OCEAN. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE...TODAY AROUND NOON...WILL HAVE A
SLIGHTLY HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL COMPONENT BUT WINDS WILL HAVE A MORE
PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST COMPONENT WHICH MIGHT HELP PUSH WATER AWAY
FROM THE COAST. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE EXPECTING WOULD
BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED THRESHOLDS NEEDED
FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION AND ISSUE ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/MEOLA
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230151
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
951 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF DELMARVA THIS
EVENING. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW
JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW
WAS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

RAIN ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOMETIMES THE
RAIN WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN AT OTHER TIMES, BUT MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA SHOULD BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOES...AND WESTERN BERKS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND SHIFTED FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST AFTER SUNSET, AND A
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 20S OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY EVENING
PEAKED JUST AT OR SLIGHTLY UNDER MINOR FLOOD LEVELS ALONG THE
OCEAN. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE...THURSDAY MORNING AROUND NOON...WILL
HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL COMPONENT BUT WINDS WILL HAVE
A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST COMPONENT WHICH MIGHT HELP PUSH WATER
AWAY FROM THE COAST. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE EXPECTING
WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED THRESHOLDS
NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION AND ISSUE ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230151
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
951 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF DELMARVA THIS
EVENING. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW
JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW
WAS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

RAIN ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOMETIMES THE
RAIN WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN AT OTHER TIMES, BUT MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA SHOULD BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOES...AND WESTERN BERKS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND SHIFTED FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST AFTER SUNSET, AND A
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 20S OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES WEDNESDAY EVENING
PEAKED JUST AT OR SLIGHTLY UNDER MINOR FLOOD LEVELS ALONG THE
OCEAN. THE NEXT HIGH TIDE...THURSDAY MORNING AROUND NOON...WILL
HAVE A SLIGHTLY HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL COMPONENT BUT WINDS WILL HAVE
A MORE PRONOUNCED NORTHWEST COMPONENT WHICH MIGHT HELP PUSH WATER
AWAY FROM THE COAST. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE EXPECTING
WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED THRESHOLDS
NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN EYE ON THE
SITUATION AND ISSUE ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS AS NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230004
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
804 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF DELMARVA THIS
EVENING. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW
JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW
WAS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

RAIN ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOMETIMES THE
RAIN WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN AT OTHER TIMES, BUT MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA SHOULD BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOES...AND WESTERN BERKS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND SHIFTED FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST AFTER SUNSET, AND A
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 20S OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES OCCUR THIS EVENING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT ALONG THE OCEAN, THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY MORNING ALONG
THE OCEAN AROUND NOON. TOMMORROW/S HIGH TIDE HAS THE HIGHER
ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION, BUT BY THAT TIME THERE SHOULD BE A
WELL-ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST WIND. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE
EXPECTING WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED
THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN
EYE ON THE SITUATION AND ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 230004
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
804 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD OVERNIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF DELMARVA THIS
EVENING. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW
JERSEY AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW
WAS CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE
IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

RAIN ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST
TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION OVERNIGHT. SOMETIMES THE
RAIN WILL COME DOWN A LITTLE HEAVIER THAN AT OTHER TIMES, BUT MOST
OF THIS PRECIPITATION IS STILL EXPECTED TO LIFT NORTH OF OUR AREA
DURING THE LATE OVERNIGHT PERIOE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OVER THE ENTIRE
CWA SHOULD BE IN THE QUARTER TO HALF INCH RANGE, WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN POCONOES...AND WESTERN BERKS COUNTY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED, WITH SOME BREAKS IN BETWEEN.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND SHIFTED FROM NORTH TO NORTHWEST AFTER SUNSET, AND A
NORTHWEST FLOW IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO
THE 20S OR HIGHER ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR OCEAN
WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH
TO NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES OCCUR THIS EVENING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT ALONG THE OCEAN, THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY MORNING ALONG
THE OCEAN AROUND NOON. TOMMORROW/S HIGH TIDE HAS THE HIGHER
ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION, BUT BY THAT TIME THERE SHOULD BE A
WELL-ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST WIND. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE
EXPECTING WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED
THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN
EYE ON THE SITUATION AND ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/MIKETTA
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER/MIKETTA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 222047
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
447 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE INTO
NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD
OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY
AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW WAS
CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE OF
THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION FOR TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

THE RAIN THAT WAS ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION DURING
THE NIGHT. IT SHOULD SETTLE PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL IN COASTAL
AREAS OF NEW JERSEY THIS EVENING DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR WESTWARD THE
HEAVIER RAIN BANDS OFF THE COAST MOVE. OTHERWISE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE QUARTER TO HALF
INCH RANGE, WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THE
RAINFALL BEING MAINLY IN NEW JERSEY.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH INTO THIS EVENING, THEN IT
SHOULD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
20S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR
OCEAN WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TIDES ARE RUNNING HIGH DUE TO A COMBINATION OF THE STORM OFF THE
COAST AND THE APPROACHING NEW MOON. HIGH TIDES OCCUR THIS EVENING
BEFORE MIDNIGHT ALONG THE OCEAN, THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY MORNING ALONG
THE OCEAN AROUND NOON. TOMMORROW/S HIGH TIDE HAS THE HIGHER
ASTRONOMICAL CONTRIBUTION, BUT BY THAT TIME THERE SHOULD BE A
WELL-ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST WIND. RIGHT NOW THE ONLY FLOODING WE/RE
EXPECTING WOULD BE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING BELOW OUR ESTABLISHED
THRESHOLDS NEEDED FOR AN ADVISORY. HOWEVER...WE WILL BE KEEPING AN
EYE ON THE SITUATION AND ISSUE ANY ADDITIONAL STATEMENTS IF
NECESSARY.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...MIKETTA








000
FXUS61 KPHI 222000
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
400 PM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT
SLOWLY TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD BE OFF
THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE INTO
NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD TOWARD
OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
HE MID LEVEL LOW WAS CENTERED OVER THE WATERS OFF VIRGINIA THIS
AFTERNOON. IT SHOULD LIFT NORTHEASTWARD TO THE WATERS OFF NEW JERSEY
AND LONG ISLAND TOWARD MORNING. MEANWHILE, THE SURFACE LOW WAS
CENTERED ABOUT 150 MILES OFF THE DELAWARE COAST. THAT FEATURE IS
EXPECTED TO DRIFT ABOUT 50 MILES TO THE EAST DURING THE COURSE OF
THE NIGHT.

IT WILL REMAIN OVERCAST AND CHILLY IN OUR REGION FOR TONIGHT. LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE MAINLY IN THE 40S. THE WIND
SHOULD BACK FROM THE NORTH TO THE NORTHWEST AT SPEEDS AROUND 10 TO
15 MPH WITH GUSTS INTO THE 20S.

THE RAIN THAT WAS ROTATING AROUND THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL LIKELY
MAINTAIN A NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST ORIENTATION IN OUR REGION DURING
THE NIGHT. IT SHOULD SETTLE PRIMARILY OVER THE COASTAL PLAIN IN NEW
JERSEY AND DELAWARE DURING THE EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD
OVERNIGHT. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF MODERATE RAINFALL IN COASTAL
AREAS OF NEW JERSEY THIS EVENING DEPENDING UPON HOW FAR WESTWARD THE
HEAVIER RAIN BANDS OFF THE COAST MOVE. OTHERWISE, RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN DELAWARE AND NEW JERSEY SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE QUARTER TO HALF
INCH RANGE, WITH LESS THAN A QUARTER INCH OF RAIN EXPECTED IN
EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW AND THE SURFACE LOW ARE FORECAST TO MOVE TOWARD
THE WATERS OFF CAPE COD ON THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH THE COASTAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHEASTWARD, AS WELL.

WE ARE EXPECTING THE RAIN TO BECOME SHOWERY AND END GRADUALLY FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY.

THE SKY SHOULD REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A NORTHWEST WIND IN THE 10 TO 20
MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. THE CLOUDS AND THE NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM GETTING ABOVE THE 50S ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH THE FIRST COUPLE DAYS OF THE EXTENDED IS
PRETTY GOOD, BUT ONCE YOU GET PAST SATURDAY A MUCH LARGER SPREAD IS
SEEN. WE WILL, HOWEVER, BE TRANSITIONING FROM TROUGHINESS TO DEGREES
OF RIDGING THROUGH THE EXTENDED, STARTING BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. FOR
THE MOST PART WE MAINTAIN A RELATIVELY DRY LONGTERM FROM SATURDAY
ONWARD AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD TO OUR SOUTH-SOUTHWEST.

FRIDAY...UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN AND PULL AWAY TO OUR
NORTHEAST WITH JUST SOME LINGERING BACKSIDE SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR
NORTHERN ZONES. THE OVERALL TREND ON FRIDAY IS FOR DRYING AS THE
STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT AND NORTHWEST WINDS REMAIN IN PLACE.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO REBOUND BACK IN THE LOW TO MID-60S
WITH LESS CLOUD COVER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND THE LACK OF SHOWERS.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH SATURDAY,
HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE GREAT
LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE NORTHEAST LATER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT ACROSS OUR AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT BUT STILL UNSURE IF WE WILL SEE A DRY PASSAGE WITH
THIS SYSTEM. THINKING THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL NOT HAVE MUCH TIME TO
MODIFY AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND HOW MUCH INFLUENCE THE ENERGY WILL
HAVE AS IT COMES IN ON THE HEELS OF THE ONCE CUT-OFF LOW. WITH THE
LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE EXPECTED IT SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY
DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY
AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND, WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
DOWN INTO THE MID ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY
OCCUR AS MIXING DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN
SUNDAY NIGHT.

MONDAY - WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE EAST
ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 12Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

GENERALLY, MVFR CEILINGS ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT IN OUR
REGION. PERIODS OF RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH THE HEAVIEST OF THE
RAINFALL BEING MAINLY IN NEW JERSEY.

THE CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT GRADUALLY INTO THE VFR CATEGORY
FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ON THURSDAY. THE RAIN IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME MORE SHOWERY AND IT SHOULD END AT OUR TAF SITES BY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO FAVOR THE NORTH INTO THIS EVENING, THEN IT
SHOULD BACK TO THE NORTHWEST FOR OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY. SUSTAINED
SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS INTO THE
20S.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR. CONTINUED NORTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS.
SOME LINGERING SHOWERS POSSIBLE NORTH OF ABE. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE,
LOWER ON SHOWERS.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...VFR. WINDS SHIFT TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY COLD
FRONT PASSAGE EXPECTED LATE SATURDAY NIGHT. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR.


&&

.MARINE...
THE GALE WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR
OCEAN WATERS AND FOR THE LOWER PART OF DELAWARE BAY. THE CIRCULATION
AROUND THE SLOW MOVING LOW OFF THE COAST SHOULD MAINTAIN A NORTH TO
NORTHWEST WIND OVER OUR WATERS WITH GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 KNOTS
ANTICIPATED. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE UPPER
PART OF DELAWARE BAY. GUSTS THERE SHOULD PEAK AROUND 30 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY - SATURDAY MORNING...SCA CONDITIONS PERSIST, ONCE THE GALES
COME DOWN, AS THE COASTAL LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST
THOUGH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD BE RELAXING BY FRIDAY NIGHT.
NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

SATURDAY...SUB-SCA. WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

SUNDAY...PERIOD OF SCA POSSIBLE BEHIND A PASSING COLD FRONT. MEDIUM
CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...SUB-SCA. MEDIUM CONFIDENCE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...GORSE/HEAVENER
AVIATION...IOVINO/HEAVENER
MARINE...IOVINO/HEAVENER







000
FXUS61 KPHI 221544
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1144 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE WATERS OFF VIRGINIA AROUND
1130 AM AND THE SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AS THE SURFACE REFLECTION LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST.

THE PRECIPITATION STREAM THAT WAS FEEDING INTO CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY, SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WAS IN THE PROCESS OF PIVOTING AROUND
THE LOW LATE THIS MORNING. IT HAD BECOME LESS FOCUSED THAN IT WAS
DURING THE NIGHT AND RAINFALL RATES OVER LAND CONTINUED TO
DECREASE.

AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY OUT TO SEA, THE ORIENTATION OF THE
PRECIPITATION FEED IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVER OUR REGION AND IT SHOULD SETTLE OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TO MAKE A MOVE
TO THE NORTH.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LOW.

SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT WE WILL
STILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. IT WILL FEEL COLDER AS THE WINDS
REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD
THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS ENERGY DRIVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL PROBABLY FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO
BE TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN
ARRIVES IN THE EAST MONDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A POTENT CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE JUST TO OUR EAST THURSDAY, BUT THEN SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY, THIS WILL TAKE A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW WITH IT. WE WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY. THE MAIN FORCING THOUGH LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. THEREFORE, SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE MORNING WITH A
DECREASE SOUTHWARD AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS DRYING
SHOULD WORK IN DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW
AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT COMBINED WITH A STRONGER WIND FIELD AND DEEPER MIXING
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS, WITH SOME
DECREASE BOTH NIGHTS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY
RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS FOR A TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND,
WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY OCCUR AS MIXING
DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE
EAST ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS SHOULD FAVOR THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(GENERALLY 1000 TO 2000 FEET) WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. CEILINGS MAY
BRIEFLY RISE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY OR FALL TO IFR, ESPECIALLY IN
ANY AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. A GRADUAL LIFTING OF CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE CONTINUATION OF PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FOR TODAY
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 14 KNOTS AND GUSTS INTO THE 20S.
THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...TIMES OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS, ENDING IN
THE EVENING AND BECOME VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS, DIMINISHING SOME AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS, DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE
BAY AND A GALE WARNING ELSEWHERE IN OUR MARINE AREA.

TODAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHEAST EARLY BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTH NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS ON THE OCEAN FRONT AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY WILL SEE SIMILAR WINDS
WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO
7 FEET ON THE OCEAN FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY
TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND THEN START TO DIMINISH A
BIT TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO LIGHTEN UP.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN
ZONES AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY FOR THE MORNING AS GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HANG ON SOME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY, AND ONE WILL BE NEEDED ELSEWHERE FOLLOWING
THE GALE WARNING.

FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE
ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN ZONES AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND MIXING CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD DECREASE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SOME SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS COULD RESULT IN GUSTS
TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS FOR A TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>452.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-453>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 221544
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1144 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY
TRACKS NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS STORM SYSTEM SHOULD
BE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST LATER THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, THEN MOVE
INTO NOVA SCOTIA FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD
TOWARD OUR AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY AND SATURDAY, THEN A
COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR LATER SUNDAY AND MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING
OFFSHORE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MID LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED OVER THE WATERS OFF VIRGINIA AROUND
1130 AM AND THE SURFACE LOW WAS CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES TO THE
EAST NORTHEAST. THE MID LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT EAST
NORTHEASTWARD TODAY AS THE SURFACE REFLECTION LIFTS SLOWLY TO THE
NORTH NORTHEAST.

THE PRECIPITATION STREAM THAT WAS FEEDING INTO CENTRAL NEW
JERSEY, SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND THE UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY
REGION EARLY THIS MORNING WAS IN THE PROCESS OF PIVOTING AROUND
THE LOW LATE THIS MORNING. IT HAD BECOME LESS FOCUSED THAN IT WAS
DURING THE NIGHT AND RAINFALL RATES OVER LAND CONTINUED TO
DECREASE.

AS THE LOW MOVES SLOWLY OUT TO SEA, THE ORIENTATION OF THE
PRECIPITATION FEED IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY NORTHEAST TO
SOUTHWEST OVER OUR REGION AND IT SHOULD SETTLE OVER THE COASTAL
PLAIN DURING THE COURSE OF THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, SPOTTY LIGHT
RAIN IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY IN THE 50S TODAY DUE TO THE
CLOUD COVER AND RAIN ALONG WITH A BRISK NORTH TO NORTHEAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE HIGH SITUATED TO THE NORTH OF OUR AREA WILL MOVE TO THE EAST.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR THE UPPER LOW AND SURFACE LOW TO MAKE A MOVE
TO THE NORTH.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. MAINLY LIGHT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH HEAVIER RAIN POSSIBLE CLOSER TO THE
UPPER LOW.

SOME COOLER AIR WILL MOVE IN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW BUT WE WILL
STILL HAVE PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER. IT WILL FEEL COLDER AS THE WINDS
REMAIN UP THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A POTENT CLOSED LOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC IS
FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHEASTWARD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
THIS WILL TAKE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WITH IT AS IT TRACKS TOWARD
THE NOVA SCOTIA AREA FRIDAY NIGHT. AS ENERGY DRIVES INTO THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST, A BUILDING RIDGE OCCURS ACROSS THE PLAINS. THIS
WILL PROBABLY FORCE ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DOWN INTO THE
NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND, HOWEVER AS IT CLOSES OFF IT LOOKS TO
BE TO OUR NORTHEAST. THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE THEN
ARRIVES IN THE EAST MONDAY, HOWEVER WITH THE PROGRESSIVE FLOW
PATTERN THE NEXT COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE DRIVING EASTWARD
LATE MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN BLENDED THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE IN WITH
CONTINUITY. SOME TWEAKS WERE THEN MADE AFTER ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR SURROUNDING OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...THE CENTER OF A POTENT CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST TO BE JUST TO OUR EAST THURSDAY, BUT THEN SHIFT
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH FRIDAY, THIS WILL TAKE A STRENGTHENING
SURFACE LOW WITH IT. WE WILL MAINTAIN MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
CLOSED LOW WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BAND OF SHOWERS TO MOVE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY. THE MAIN FORCING THOUGH LOOKS TO
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH. THEREFORE, SOME SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE
HIGHEST /LIKELY/ POPS ACROSS THE NORTH IN THE MORNING WITH A
DECREASE SOUTHWARD AND DURING THE AFTERNOON. IT APPEARS DRYING
SHOULD WORK IN DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS THE CLOSED LOW
AND SURFACE LOW SHIFT FARTHER TO OUR NORTHEAST. A TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT COMBINED WITH A STRONGER WIND FIELD AND DEEPER MIXING
WILL RESULT IN BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS BOTH DAYS, WITH SOME
DECREASE BOTH NIGHTS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH LOOKS TO SLIDE ACROSS
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE SHOULD ONLY
RESULT IN SOME CLOUDS FOR A TIME.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR SOUTH
SATURDAY, HOWEVER A STRONG SHORT WAVE DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
THE GREAT LAKES WILL DIG ANOTHER UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST LATER SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS WILL TOSS A COLD FRONT
ACROSS OUR AREA SATURDAY NIGHT, HOWEVER A LIMITED AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE SHOULD RESULT IN A GENERALLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE. THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW LOOKS TO INTENSIFY AS IS EXITS NEW ENGLAND,
WHICH MEANS A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT DOWN INTO THE MID
ATLANTIC SUNDAY. AS A RESULT, A BREEZY DAY MAY OCCUR AS MIXING
DEEPENS. HIGH PRESSURE THEN STARTS TO BUILD IN SUNDAY NIGHT.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SLIDES TOWARD THE
EAST ALLOWING HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE
SHIFTING OFFSHORE TUESDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN WARMING
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY AS WAA DEVELOPS TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
COLD FRONT. NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME, WITH
JUST SOME BLENDING IN OF THE NEW 00Z WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

CEILINGS SHOULD FAVOR THE MVFR RANGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
(GENERALLY 1000 TO 2000 FEET) WITH PERIODS OF RAIN. CEILINGS MAY
BRIEFLY RISE INTO THE VFR CATEGORY OR FALL TO IFR, ESPECIALLY IN
ANY AREAS OF MODERATE RAINFALL. A GRADUAL LIFTING OF CEILINGS IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT ALONG WITH THE CONTINUATION OF PERIOD OF LIGHT
RAIN.

THE WIND IS EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST FOR TODAY
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS AROUND 8 TO 14 KNOTS AND GUSTS INTO THE 20S.
THE WIND DIRECTION IS FORECAST TO BACK TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST
FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...TIMES OF MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS, ENDING IN
THE EVENING AND BECOME VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS 15-20 KNOTS WITH GUSTS
UP TO 30 KNOTS, DIMINISHING SOME AT NIGHT.

FRIDAY...VFR. NORTHWESTERLY WINDS AROUND 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO
25 KNOTS, DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE IS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE UPPER PART OF DELAWARE
BAY AND A GALE WARNING ELSEWHERE IN OUR MARINE AREA.

TODAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
ACROSS THE AREA WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL BE OUT OF THE NORTH
NORTHEAST EARLY BEFORE BECOMING MORE NORTH NORTHWEST. WINDS WILL
BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS OF 35 KNOTS ON THE OCEAN FRONT AND
LOWER DELAWARE BAY. THE UPPER DELAWARE BAY WILL SEE SIMILAR WINDS
WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER 30 KNOT RANGE. SEAS WILL INCREASE TO 5 TO
7 FEET ON THE OCEAN FRONT.

TONIGHT...THE GALE WARNING CONTINUES ON THE OCEAN AND LOWER BAY
TONIGHT. WINDS REMAIN GUSTY OVERNIGHT AND THEN START TO DIMINISH A
BIT TOWARD THURSDAY MORNING AS THE GRADIENT STARTS TO LIGHTEN UP.
SEAS WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN ABOVE 5 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN OCEAN
ZONES AND LOWER DELAWARE BAY FOR THE MORNING AS GUSTY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS HANG ON SOME. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONTINUES
FOR UPPER DELAWARE BAY, AND ONE WILL BE NEEDED ELSEWHERE FOLLOWING
THE GALE WARNING.

FRIDAY...NORTHWESTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 25 TO 30 KNOTS ARE
ANTICIPATED ESPECIALLY ON THE OCEAN ZONES AS A PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND MIXING CONTINUES. THIS SHOULD DECREASE AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE FLOW SHOULD INCREASE SOME SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THIS COULD RESULT IN GUSTS
TO ABOUT 25 KNOTS FOR A TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ450>452.
     GALE WARNING UNTIL 11 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ431-453>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ430.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA







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