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000
FXUS61 KPHI 282307
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
707 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CAROLINA GRADUALLY SHIFTS OUT TO SEA OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MAY EXTEND INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
630PM ESTF: FURTHER COOLING AND WET BULBING THE TEMPS/DEWS THIS
EVENING AND HOPEFULLY HAVE IT STABLE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
RAISED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT THIS EVENING 00-01Z I78-I80 AS IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE IS ENOUGH MODELING AND RADAR REALITY TO JUSTIFY MEASURABLE
INTERMITTENT SHOWERY RAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE I`LL
HAVE TO ADD MORE POP DOWN TO PHILLY AND MT HOLLY THIS EVENING.

CONVECTION MOVING EWD FROM VA SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT SHOWERS CROSSING
THE DELMARVA TONIGHT.

RAIN WILL TEND TO QUIT LATE TONIGHT THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS
OF DRIZZLE AND LESS THAN 2 MI FOG.

AMOUNTS THROUGH 630 PM: 0.31 AROUND READING PA SO FAR, 0.26
POTTSTOWN AND WIDESPREAD .1 TO .2 I-78 REGION AS OF 630 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES ESEWD ALONG I-80
LATE TOMORROW AND IS SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE (TIGHT 500MB VORT)
DESPITE MINOR 30 METER 12 HR 500 MB HFC. HAVE RAISED POPS 30-40
PCT N OF I-78 FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS,
KEPT TOMORROWS HIGHS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN TODAY AND YESTERDAY...
GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ABOUT 12F BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE COMPRISED OF A STRONG CLOSED
LOW THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXIT THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS ALLOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO BACK MORE
WESTERLY/ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS. A
CLOSED LOW IN THE PLAINS IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE IS SCHEDULED
TO CROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE LOW
PRESSURE EASTWARD, WHICH LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. AS A RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST, A TROUGH LOOKS
TO AMPLIFY INTO THE EAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS LOOKS TO APPROACH LATER
WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY. WE USED A
MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR AREA TO START FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP
SOME SHOWERS GOING, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD BE ON THE WANE AS SOME
RIDGING ARRIVES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO START SATURDAY. THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW THEN BACKS SOME AS A TROUGH TAKES ON SOME AMPLIFICATION
IN THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WAA AND
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO START OVERSPREADING OUR AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME RAIN ARRIVING LATER SATURDAY NIGHT,
AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL APPEARS TO BE FASTER IN BRINGING IN
THE PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT, WE SPED UP THE POP INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT. DUE TO SOME BRIEF DRYING SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODIFY
SOME DURING THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES EASTWARD,
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS TO BE PLENTY OF WAA AND
ISENTROPIC INDUCED LIFT AS A WARM FRONT EDGES CLOSER DURING SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE FLOW BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST, PRECIPITATION MAY QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST THOUGH WILL RESULT IN SOME SORT OF A WEDGE INITIALLY AND
COULD ALLOW ENOUGH DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER.
OVERALL THOUGH, MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
OVERTAKE THIS. AS A RESULT, THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED
WITH RAIN AT TIMES.

THE STEADIER RAIN MAY THEN BECOME SHOWERY ON MONDAY AS THE BETTER
OVERRUNNING STARTS TO SHIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LESS PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD OCCUR IF THE SURFACE LOW IS
FASTER. IT APPEARS THE WARM SECTOR MAY EDGE INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WHILE SOME THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR /PERHAPS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT/, IT IS LESS CERTAIN IF IT WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. AS A
RESULT, NO THUNDER WAS ADDED ATTM. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS
MORE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THIS STARTS TO
OCCUR, THE MONDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY HAVE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RUNNING UP THE FRONT. THIS COULD AT LEAST BRUSH OUR EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY, HOWEVER THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AMPLIFIES MORE INTO THURSDAY, A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEATING AND WAA TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY SOME PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN
ST/FOG AND PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MOST OF THE RAIN NORTH OF
PHL. AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE LATER ON TONIGHT. LIGHT NE WIND.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...CONDITIONS PROBABLY IMPROVING TO MVFR OR VFR CIGS DURING
MIDDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE BUT MAY LOWER IN RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY KRDG/KABE AND KTTN. NE WIND WITH A FEW
GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE I-95 EASTWARD.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS
SHOULD THEN IMPROVE TO VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY, THEN LOWER TO MVFR AT NIGHT AS SOME
RAIN APPROACHES. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
RAIN AT TIMES. THE CONDITIONS MAY START IMPROVING MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL.

&&

.MARINE...
705PM: DISCONTINUED SCA UPPER DE BAY. LOOKS LIKE MOST GUSTS TONIGHT
THERE AOB 22KT. ELSEWHERE..EXPECTING INCREASING WIND AND SEA
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
OCEAN ZONES ALONG WITH SEAS TO AROUND 5 FEET. THESE SHOULD SUBSIDE
DURING THE NIGHT AND THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS KEPT
UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA DESPITE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS MONDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AT NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING BACK EASTERLY. IT
APPEARS THAT THE WINDS REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS, HOWEVER SEAS MAY BUILD
TO 5 FEET FOR A TIME ON THE OCEAN ZONES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE  708P




000
FXUS61 KPHI 282249
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
649 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN NORTH CAROLINA GRADUALLY SHIFTS OUT TO SEA OFF THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST LATER FRIDAY OR FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. LOW
PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MAY EXTEND INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THE NEXT
COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
630PM ESTF: FURTHER COOLING AND WET BULBING THE TEMPS/DEWS THIS
EVENING AND HOPEFULLY HAVE IT STABLE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT.
RAISED POPS TO NEAR 100 PCT THIS EVENING 00-01Z I78-I80 AS IT LOOKS
LIKE THERE IS ENOUGH MODELING AND RADAR REALITY TO JUSTIFY MEASURABLE
INTERMITTENT SHOWERY RAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ITS POSSIBLE I`LL
HAVE TO ADD MORE POP DOWN TO PHILLY AND MT HOLLY THIS EVENING.

CONVECTION MOVING EWD FROM VA SHOULD DIMINISH TO SCT SHOWERS CROSSING
THE DELMARVA TONIGHT.

RAIN WILL TEND TO QUIT LATE TONIGHT THOUGH THERE MAY BE SOME AREAS
OF DRIZZLE AND LESS THAN 2 MI FOG.

AMOUNTS THROUGH 630 PM: 0.31 AROUND READING PA SO FAR, 0.26
POTTSTOWN AND WIDESPREAD .1 TO .2 I-78 REGION AS OF 630 PM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH CROSSES ESEWD ALONG I-80
LATE TOMORROW AND IS SOMEWHAT IMPRESSIVE (TIGHT 500MB VORT)
DESPITE MINOR 30 METER 12 HR 500 MB HFC. HAVE RAISED POPS 30-40
PCT N OF I-78 FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS,
KEPT TOMORROWS HIGHS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN TODAY AND YESTERDAY...
GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ABOUT 12F BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE COMPRISED OF A STRONG CLOSED
LOW THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXIT THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS ALLOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO BACK MORE
WESTERLY/ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS. A
CLOSED LOW IN THE PLAINS IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE IS SCHEDULED
TO CROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE LOW
PRESSURE EASTWARD, WHICH LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. AS A RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST, A TROUGH LOOKS
TO AMPLIFY INTO THE EAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS LOOKS TO APPROACH LATER
WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY. WE USED A
MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR AREA TO START FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP
SOME SHOWERS GOING, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD BE ON THE WANE AS SOME
RIDGING ARRIVES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO START SATURDAY. THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW THEN BACKS SOME AS A TROUGH TAKES ON SOME AMPLIFICATION
IN THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WAA AND
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO START OVERSPREADING OUR AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME RAIN ARRIVING LATER SATURDAY NIGHT,
AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL APPEARS TO BE FASTER IN BRINGING IN
THE PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT, WE SPED UP THE POP INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT. DUE TO SOME BRIEF DRYING SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODIFY
SOME DURING THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES EASTWARD,
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS TO BE PLENTY OF WAA AND
ISENTROPIC INDUCED LIFT AS A WARM FRONT EDGES CLOSER DURING SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE FLOW BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST, PRECIPITATION MAY QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST THOUGH WILL RESULT IN SOME SORT OF A WEDGE INITIALLY AND
COULD ALLOW ENOUGH DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER.
OVERALL THOUGH, MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
OVERTAKE THIS. AS A RESULT, THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED
WITH RAIN AT TIMES.

THE STEADIER RAIN MAY THEN BECOME SHOWERY ON MONDAY AS THE BETTER
OVERRUNNING STARTS TO SHIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LESS PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD OCCUR IF THE SURFACE LOW IS
FASTER. IT APPEARS THE WARM SECTOR MAY EDGE INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WHILE SOME THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR /PERHAPS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT/, IT IS LESS CERTAIN IF IT WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. AS A
RESULT, NO THUNDER WAS ADDED ATTM. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS
MORE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THIS STARTS TO
OCCUR, THE MONDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY HAVE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RUNNING UP THE FRONT. THIS COULD AT LEAST BRUSH OUR EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY, HOWEVER THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AMPLIFIES MORE INTO THURSDAY, A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEATING AND WAA TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY SOME PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF TONIGHT...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN
ST/FOG AND PERIODS OF SHOWERY RAINS...MOST OF THE RAIN NORTH OF
PHL. AREAS OF DRIZZLE POSSIBLE LATER ON TONIGHT. LIGHT NE WIND.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...CONDITIONS PROBABLY IMPROVING TO MVFR OR VFR CIGS DURING
MIDDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE BUT MAY LOWER IN RAIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY KRDG/KABE AND KTTN. NE WIND WITH A FEW
GUSTS 15-20 KT POSSIBLE I-95 EASTWARD.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS
SHOULD THEN IMPROVE TO VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY, THEN LOWER TO MVFR AT NIGHT AS SOME
RAIN APPROACHES. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
RAIN AT TIMES. THE CONDITIONS MAY START IMPROVING MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL.

&&

.MARINE...
PLAN TO DISCONTINUE SCA UPPER DE BAY BY 8P. LOOKS LIKE MOST GUSTS
TONIGHT THERE AOB 22KT.

ON THE COASTAL WATERS, SEAS AND WINDS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE OVERNIGHT,
AND SHOULD BE ABOVE 5 FEET BY LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH THE
DAY TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
OCEAN ZONES ALONG WITH SEAS TO AROUND 5 FEET. THESE SHOULD SUBSIDE
DURING THE NIGHT AND THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS KEPT
UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA DESPITE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS MONDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AT NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING BACK EASTERLY. IT
APPEARS THAT THE WINDS REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS, HOWEVER SEAS MAY BUILD
TO 5 FEET FOR A TIME ON THE OCEAN ZONES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/GORSE 650P
NEAR TERM...DRAG 650P
SHORT TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 650P
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON 650P




000
FXUS61 KPHI 282138
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
538 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, WITH ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVES BY LATE FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MAY EXTEND INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
5PM ESTF: UPDATED TEMPS/DEWS CONSIDERABLY THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE
TO RAPIDLY CHANGING WET BULBING CONDITIONS IN RAIN. POPS WERE RAISED
CONSIDERABLY I-78 CORRIDOR NORTHWARD TO NEAR 100 PERCENT LATE TODAY
AND THIS EVENING IN RESPONSE TO RADAR RAIN WHICH BENEFICIAL AMOUNTS
OF AT LEAST .1 TO .3 INCHES IN MUCH OF THIS AREA BY 03Z/29.

RAIN WILL TEND TO QUIT LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE IN
THE DAY TOMORROW. AS A RESULT, COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.

WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW AND MID LEVEL CLOUDS,
KEPT TOMORROWS HIGHS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN TODAY AND YESTERDAY...
GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION...ABOUT 12F BELOW
NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE COMPRISED OF A STRONG CLOSED
LOW THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXIT THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS ALLOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO BACK MORE
WESTERLY/ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS. A
CLOSED LOW IN THE PLAINS IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE IS SCHEDULED
TO CROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE LOW
PRESSURE EASTWARD, WHICH LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. AS A RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST, A TROUGH LOOKS
TO AMPLIFY INTO THE EAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS LOOKS TO APPROACH LATER
WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY. WE USED A
MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR AREA TO START FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP
SOME SHOWERS GOING, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD BE ON THE WANE AS SOME
RIDGING ARRIVES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO START SATURDAY. THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW THEN BACKS SOME AS A TROUGH TAKES ON SOME AMPLIFICATION
IN THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WAA AND
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO START OVERSPREADING OUR AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME RAIN ARRIVING LATER SATURDAY NIGHT,
AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL APPEARS TO BE FASTER IN BRINGING IN
THE PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT, WE SPED UP THE POP INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT. DUE TO SOME BRIEF DRYING SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODIFY
SOME DURING THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES EASTWARD,
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS TO BE PLENTY OF WAA AND
ISENTROPIC INDUCED LIFT AS A WARM FRONT EDGES CLOSER DURING SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE FLOW BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST, PRECIPITATION MAY QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST THOUGH WILL RESULT IN SOME SORT OF A WEDGE INITIALLY AND
COULD ALLOW ENOUGH DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER.
OVERALL THOUGH, MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
OVERTAKE THIS. AS A RESULT, THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED
WITH RAIN AT TIMES.

THE STEADIER RAIN MAY THEN BECOME SHOWERY ON MONDAY AS THE BETTER
OVERRUNNING STARTS TO SHIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LESS PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD OCCUR IF THE SURFACE LOW IS
FASTER. IT APPEARS THE WARM SECTOR MAY EDGE INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WHILE SOME THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR /PERHAPS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT/, IT IS LESS CERTAIN IF IT WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. AS A
RESULT, NO THUNDER WAS ADDED ATTM. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS
MORE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THIS STARTS TO
OCCUR, THE MONDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY HAVE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RUNNING UP THE FRONT. THIS COULD AT LEAST BRUSH OUR EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY, HOWEVER THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AMPLIFIES MORE INTO THURSDAY, A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEATING AND WAA TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY SOME PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...CONDITIONS LOWERING TO MVFR OR IFR IN ST/FOG AND PERIODS
OF SHOWERY RAINS...MOST OF THE RAIN NORTH OF PHL. AREAS OF DRIZZLE
POSSIBLE LATER ON TONIGHT. LIGHT NE WIND. MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE.

FRIDAY...CONDITIONS PROBABLY IMPROVING TO MVFR OR VFR CIGS DURING
MIDDAY. MODERATE CONFIDENCE. NE WIND WITH A FEW GUSTS 15-20 KT
POSSIBLE I-95 EAST.


OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS
SHOULD THEN IMPROVE TO VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY, THEN LOWER TO MVFR AT NIGHT AS SOME
RAIN APPROACHES. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
RAIN AT TIMES. THE CONDITIONS MAY START IMPROVING MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS INCREASED MID DAY TODAY ALONG THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 25 KT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS EVENING. NEAR MIDNIGHT THE
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE DELAWARE BAY. ON
THE COASTAL WATERS, SEAS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE, AND SHOULD BE
ABOVE 5 FEET BY LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
OCEAN ZONES ALONG WITH SEAS TO AROUND 5 FEET. THESE SHOULD SUBSIDE
DURING THE NIGHT AND THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS KEPT
UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA DESPITE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS MONDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AT NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING BACK EASTERLY. IT
APPEARS THAT THE WINDS REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS, HOWEVER SEAS MAY BUILD
TO 5 FEET FOR A TIME ON THE OCEAN ZONES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/JOHNSON 538
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/JOHNSON 538
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY, WITH ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM ARRIVES BY LATE FRIDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD DOWN FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE MAY EXTEND INTO OUR AREA TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, THEN THE
NEXT COLD FRONT ARRIVES ON THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOSTLY NORTH OF THE REGION BY THIS
EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHEAST, BUT WITH A INVERTED SURFACE RIDGE OVER OUR REGION
TONIGHT, EXPECT TO SEE MOSTLY A LULL IN PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD HELP TO KEEP LOW CLOUDS OVER
THE REGION THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION LATE IN
THE DAY TOMORROW. AS A RESULT, COULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST.

WITH CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND PERSISTENT LOW AND MID LEVEL
CLOUDS, KEPT TOMORROWS HIGHS SIMILAR TO WHAT WE`VE SEEN TODAY AND
YESTERDAY...GENERALLY IN THE 50S FOR MOST OF THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE COMPRISED OF A STRONG CLOSED
LOW THAT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY EXIT THE CANADIAN MARITIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS ALLOWS THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TO BACK MORE
WESTERLY/ZONAL OVER THE WEEKEND AS A WEAK RIDGE AXIS MOVES ACROSS. A
CLOSED LOW IN THE PLAINS IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AS IT LIFTS
NORTHEAST AND EASTWARD OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS FEATURE IS SCHEDULED
TO CROSS OUR AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THIS WILL DRIVE LOW
PRESSURE EASTWARD, WHICH LOOKS TO TRACK ACROSS OUR AREA ON MONDAY
BEFORE SHIFTING OFFSHORE. AS A RIDGE BUILDS OUT WEST, A TROUGH LOOKS
TO AMPLIFY INTO THE EAST TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS LOOKS TO APPROACH LATER
WEDNESDAY THEN MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THURSDAY. WE USED A
MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL FEATURE IS FORECAST
TO TRANSLATE ACROSS OUR AREA TO START FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD KEEP
SOME SHOWERS GOING, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD BE ON THE WANE AS SOME
RIDGING ARRIVES LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND TO START SATURDAY. THE UPPER-
LEVEL FLOW THEN BACKS SOME AS A TROUGH TAKES ON SOME AMPLIFICATION
IN THE GREAT LAKES LATE SATURDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR WAA AND
INCREASING ISENTROPIC LIFT TO START OVERSPREADING OUR AREA SATURDAY
NIGHT. THIS MAY RESULT IN SOME RAIN ARRIVING LATER SATURDAY NIGHT,
AND THE MODEL GUIDANCE OVERALL APPEARS TO BE FASTER IN BRINGING IN
THE PRECIPITATION. AS A RESULT, WE SPED UP THE POP INCREASE SATURDAY
NIGHT. DUE TO SOME BRIEF DRYING SATURDAY, TEMPERATURES SHOULD MODIFY
SOME DURING THE DAY.

FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY...AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES EASTWARD,
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE IN OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY
AND MONDAY. HOWEVER, THERE APPEARS TO BE PLENTY OF WAA AND
ISENTROPIC INDUCED LIFT AS A WARM FRONT EDGES CLOSER DURING SUNDAY.
GIVEN THE FLOW BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST, PRECIPITATION MAY QUICKLY
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. LINGERING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR
NORTHEAST THOUGH WILL RESULT IN SOME SORT OF A WEDGE INITIALLY AND
COULD ALLOW ENOUGH DRY LOW-LEVEL AIR TO HOLD ON A LITTLE LONGER.
OVERALL THOUGH, MOISTURE INCREASING FROM THE SOUTHWEST SHOULD
OVERTAKE THIS. AS A RESULT, THIS TIME FRAME LOOKS RATHER UNSETTLED
WITH RAIN AT TIMES.

THE STEADIER RAIN MAY THEN BECOME SHOWERY ON MONDAY AS THE BETTER
OVERRUNNING STARTS TO SHIFT TO OUR NORTHEAST. SOME GUIDANCE SUGGESTS
LESS PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY WHICH WOULD OCCUR IF THE SURFACE LOW IS
FASTER. IT APPEARS THE WARM SECTOR MAY EDGE INTO OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WHILE SOME THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITHIN
THE WARM SECTOR /PERHAPS SOME ELEVATED INSTABILITY NORTH OF THE WARM
FRONT/, IT IS LESS CERTAIN IF IT WOULD BE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER. AS A
RESULT, NO THUNDER WAS ADDED ATTM. THE SHOWERS SHOULD END MONDAY
NIGHT AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS OFFSHORE AND THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW TURNS
MORE FROM THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.

FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE EAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THIS STARTS TO
OCCUR, THE MONDAY FRONTAL BOUNDARY MAY HAVE A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
RUNNING UP THE FRONT. THIS COULD AT LEAST BRUSH OUR EASTERN AND
SOUTHERN ZONES TUESDAY, HOWEVER THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE WITH THIS.
AS THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AMPLIFIES MORE INTO THURSDAY, A COLD
FRONT LOOKS TO ARRIVE. THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH HEATING AND WAA TO
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO MODIFY SOME PRIOR TO THE ARRIVAL OF THE COLD
FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOWER CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE MAIN LINE OF SHOWERS THAT IS
LIFTING NORTHEAST THROUGH THE REGION NOW. BEHIND THESE SHOWERS,
CEILINGS WILL LIFT BRIEFLY TO VFR, BUT SHOULD SLOWLY LOWER THROUGH
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING TO MVFR AND EVENTUALLY IFR FOR
MANY LOCATIONS BY 06Z. EXPECT THE LOW CEILINGS TO LINGER THROUGH AT
LEAST 12Z BEFORE THEY FINALLY SLOWLY START TO LIFT.

THERE IS THE CHANCE FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
ACROSS THE REGION. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN THE
TAFS FOR NOW.

WINDS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WILL REMAIN NORTHEASTERLY OR EAST
NORTHEASTERLY NEAR OR BELOW 10 KT. HOWEVER, ON THE COASTAL PLAINS,
INCLUDING KMIV AND KACY A FEW GUSTS NEAR 20 KTS MAY BE POSSIBLE
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE EVENING WITH SOME SHOWERS
SHOULD THEN IMPROVE TO VFR. NORTHEAST WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY...VFR DURING THE DAY, THEN LOWER TO MVFR AT NIGHT AS SOME
RAIN APPROACHES. EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...MVFR TO POTENTIALLY IFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH
RAIN AT TIMES. THE CONDITIONS MAY START IMPROVING MONDAY NIGHT.

TUESDAY...VFR OVERALL.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS INCREASED MID DAY TODAY ALONG THE LOWER DELAWARE BAY AND
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 25 KT WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST LATE THIS EVENING. NEAR MIDNIGHT THE
EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE BELOW SCA CRITERIA ON THE DELAWARE BAY. ON
THE COASTAL WATERS, SEAS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE, AND SHOULD BE
ABOVE 5 FEET BY LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...NORTHEASTERLY WIND GUSTS OF 20 TO 25 KNOTS ON THE
OCEAN ZONES ALONG WITH SEAS TO AROUND 5 FEET. THESE SHOULD SUBSIDE
DURING THE NIGHT AND THEREFORE THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WAS KEPT
UNTIL 06Z SATURDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD BE BELOW ADVISORY
CRITERIA DESPITE INCOMING LOW PRESSURE LATE SUNDAY.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS MONDAY SHOULD SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST AT NIGHT INTO TUESDAY BEFORE SHIFTING BACK EASTERLY. IT
APPEARS THAT THE WINDS REMAIN UNDER 25 KNOTS, HOWEVER SEAS MAY BUILD
TO 5 FEET FOR A TIME ON THE OCEAN ZONES.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281339
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
THEN STARTS TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT, REMAINING
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE
NORTH FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWESTERN STATES, BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
930 AM UPDATE... NOT MANY CHANGES WITH THE UPDATE. SHOWERS ARE
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN DELMARVA NOW AND SHOULD CONTINUE
TO SPREAD FURTHER NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS
ACROSS NE PA AND NJ THIS MORNING...BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AND BE
REPLACED BY LOW PRESSURE FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY. A
DECENT SHIELD OF LOWER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS PRECEDED THE LOW AND
WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE W/S LATE MORNING AND THEN PROCEED INTO THE
N/E AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. POPS WERE RAISED INTO THE LIKELY AND
LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR THIS FCST. OVERALL RAINFALL AMTS AROUND
1/2 INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HAVE NOT MADE MANY
CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND WINDS IN THIS FCST WITH THE PREVIOUS
VALUES LOOKING CLOSE TO WHAT IS BEING OFFERED IN THE NEW GUIDANCE.
HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 50S NORTH AND MID/UPPER
50S OVER THE DELMARVA/SOUTH NJ AND THE METRO AREAS. WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY ERLY/NERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH INLAND AND 10 TO 15 MPH CLOSE TO
THE SHORE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA WHILE WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT. THE SHIELD OF THICKER MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS/OCNL LIGHT RAIN AND SOME DRIZZLE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
40S. THE OVERALL SLOW SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO LITTLE CHC OF
ANY CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA BY DAWN. POPS WILL DECREASE LATER
TONIGHT HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE REGION, WE WILL SEE
SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP. MOISTURE IS NOT ABUNDANT AS MOST OF IT SEEMS
TO REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A DEPARTING SYSTEM. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA IN PART DUE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, IT WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AND
MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECTING THE WEATHER TO BE MOSTLY DRY
FOR SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND START TO
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY, WE WILL START TO HAVE SOME SHOWERS MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR
AREA. WE COULD SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND THEN OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL START TO DRY
OUT ON MONDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES TO THE EAST AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BRIEFLY FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THERE
ARE FEWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AND NRN NJ AS THE HIGH TO
THE NORTH CAUSES DRIER AIR TO REMAIN OVER THESE AREAS. THE
PREVAILING ERLY FLOW IS BECOMING MORE HUMID AND LOWER CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND W WITH MVFR CIGS. LIGHT FOG HAS
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE CLR/PC AREAS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING WITH AS WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY.
RAINS AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR THEN
POSSIBLE IFR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. NEW TAFS ARE A BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS TAFS WITH SOME OF THE NEW LAMP/MAV GUIDANCE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR OR
LOWER IN RAIN AND SHOWERS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.

MONDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND RAIN. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING WHILE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY. RAINS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
SOME FOG WILL BE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT
EARLY TODAY...BUT THEN STEADILY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
A SCA FLAG FOR GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT WILL GO INTO
EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT AND LAST INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
GUSTS UP AROUND 25 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FRIDAY
EVENING AND FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL START TO
RISE AND ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 5 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY FOR THE OCEAN.

SATURDAY...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
AND CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE, GRADUALLY
INCREASING AND POSSIBLY NEARING 25 KNOTS ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO
START TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET ON OCEAN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281030
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
630 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
THEN STARTS TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT, REMAINING
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE
NORTH FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWESTERN STATES, BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE FROST ADVISORY THAT WAS IN EFFECT HAS BEEN CANCELLED. PUBLIC
PRODUCTS WILL BE UPDATED WITH THE 630 AM ESTF.

A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ACROSS NE PA AND NJ
THIS MORNING...BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY  LOW PRESSURE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY. A DECENT SHIELD OF LOWER CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS PRECEDED THE LOW AND WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE W/S LATE
MORNING AND THEN PROCEED INTO THE N/E AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. POPS
WERE RAISED INTO THE LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR THIS FCST.
OVERALL RAINFALL AMTS AROUND 1/2 INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND WINDS IN THIS
FCST WITH THE PREVIOUS VALUES LOOKING CLOSE TO WHAT IS BEING OFFERED
IN THE NEW GUIDANCE. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 50S
NORTH AND MID/UPPER 50S OVER THE DELMARVA/SOUTH NJ AND THE METRO
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY ERLY/NERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH INLAND AND 10
TO 15 MPH CLOSE TO THE SHORE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA WHILE WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT. THE SHIELD OF THICKER MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS/OCNL LIGHT RAIN AND SOME DRIZZLE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
40S. THE OVERALL SLOW SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO LITTLE CHC OF
ANY CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA BY DAWN. POPS WILL DECREASE LATER
TONIGHT HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE REGION, WE WILL SEE
SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP. MOISTURE IS NOT ABUNDANT AS MOST OF IT SEEMS
TO REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A DEPARTING SYSTEM. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA IN PART DUE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, IT WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AND
MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECTING THE WEATHER TO BE MOSTLY DRY
FOR SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND START TO
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY, WE WILL START TO HAVE SOME SHOWERS MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR
AREA. WE COULD SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND THEN OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL START TO DRY
OUT ON MONDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES TO THE EAST AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BRIEFLY FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THERE
ARE FEWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AND NRN NJ AS THE HIGH TO
THE NORTH CAUSES DRIER AIR TO REMAIN OVER THESE AREAS. THE
PREVAILING ERLY FLOW IS BECOMING MORE HUMID AND LOWER CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND W WITH MVFR CIGS. LIGHT FOG HAS
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE CLR/PC AREAS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING WITH AS WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY.
RAINS AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR THEN
POSSIBLE IFR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. NEW TAFS ARE A BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS TAFS WITH SOME OF THE NEW LAMP/MAV GUIDANCE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR OR
LOWER IN RAIN AND SHOWERS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.

MONDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND RAIN. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING WHILE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY. RAINS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
SOME FOG WILL BE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT
EARLY TODAY...BUT THEN STEADILY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
A SCA FLAG FOR GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT WILL GO INTO
EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT AND LAST INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
GUSTS UP AROUND 25 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FRIDAY
EVENING AND FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL START TO
RISE AND ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 5 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY FOR THE OCEAN.

SATURDAY...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
AND CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE, GRADUALLY
INCREASING AND POSSIBLY NEARING 25 KNOTS ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO
START TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET ON OCEAN.

&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE WATER LEVELS ACROSS THE NE MD CHESAPEAKE SHORE AREAS WILL RUN
HIGH FOR THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THE DEPARTURES ARE
BECOMING LESS THAN EARLIER THOUGH AND LEVELS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW
MINOR TIDAL LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 280756
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA AND
THEN STARTS TO SLIDE TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SATURDAY. AN AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THE SLOW MOVING FRONT, REMAINING
SOUTH AND EAST OF OUR AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD DOWN FROM THE
NORTH FOR SATURDAY. ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARDS
THE REGION FROM THE MIDWESTERN STATES, BRINGING UNSETTLED WEATHER
TO THE AREA LATE SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY
IMPACT THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ACROSS NE PA AND NJ
THIS MORNING...BUT IT WILL WEAKEN AND BE REPLACED BY  LOW PRESSURE
FROM THE OHIO VALLEY LATER TODAY. A DECENT SHIELD OF LOWER CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS PRECEDED THE LOW AND WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE W/S LATE
MORNING AND THEN PROCEED INTO THE N/E AREAS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. POPS
WERE RAISED INTO THE LIKELY AND LOW CATEGORICAL RANGE FOR THIS FCST.
OVERALL RAINFALL AMTS AROUND 1/2 INCH ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY. HAVE NOT MADE MANY CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES AND WINDS IN THIS
FCST WITH THE PREVIOUS VALUES LOOKING CLOSE TO WHAT IS BEING OFFERED
IN THE NEW GUIDANCE. HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY IN THE 50S WITH LOW 50S
NORTH AND MID/UPPER 50S OVER THE DELMARVA/SOUTH NJ AND THE METRO
AREAS. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY ERLY/NERLY AT 5 TO 10 MPH INLAND AND 10
TO 15 MPH CLOSE TO THE SHORE AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA WHILE WEAKENING
OVERNIGHT. THE SHIELD OF THICKER MOISTURE WILL LINGER ACROSS THE
AREA WITH LOW CLOUDS/OCNL LIGHT RAIN AND SOME DRIZZLE THE
PREDOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPES. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
40S. THE OVERALL SLOW SPEED OF THE SYSTEM WILL LEAD TO LITTLE CHC OF
ANY CLEARING ACROSS THE AREA BY DAWN. POPS WILL DECREASE LATER
TONIGHT HOWEVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A STRONG MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TOWARDS THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY. AS THIS FEATURE CROSSES THE REGION, WE WILL SEE
SOME SHOWERS DEVELOP. MOISTURE IS NOT ABUNDANT AS MOST OF IT SEEMS
TO REMAIN OFFSHORE WITH A DEPARTING SYSTEM. WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD
COVER ACROSS THE AREA IN PART DUE TO THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW
THROUGHOUT THE DAY, IT WILL BE ON THE COOLER SIDE AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE AREA.

ON SATURDAY WE WILL SEE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD DOWN FROM CANADA AND
MOVE TO THE EAST OF THE AREA. EXPECTING THE WEATHER TO BE MOSTLY DRY
FOR SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES AND START TO
MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AS THE LOW MOVES INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY, WE WILL START TO HAVE SOME SHOWERS MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR
AREA. WE COULD SEE SHOWERS DEVELOP AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT AND
THEN CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY AS THE LOW MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE
MID-ATLANTIC AND THEN OFFSHORE ON MONDAY. THE AREA WILL START TO DRY
OUT ON MONDAY AS THE LOW PUSHES TO THE EAST AND THEN HIGH PRESSURE
IS EXPECTED TO RETURN BRIEFLY FOR TUESDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL
APPROACH THE REGION AROUND MIDWEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG,KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A VARIETY OF CONDITIONS ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS MORNING. THERE
ARE FEWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE COASTAL AREAS AND NRN NJ AS THE HIGH TO
THE NORTH CAUSES DRIER AIR TO REMAIN OVER THESE AREAS. THE
PREVAILING ERLY FLOW IS BECOMING MORE HUMID AND LOWER CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND W WITH MVFR CIGS. LIGHT FOG HAS
BEEN OBSERVED ACROSS THE CLR/PC AREAS. WINDS LIGHT AND VARIABLE THIS
MORNING. CONDITIONS MAY IMPROVE FOR AWHILE THIS MORNING WITH AS WINDS
BEGIN TO INCREASE WITH VFR POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY.
RAINS AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN THIS AFTERNOON WITH MVFR THEN
POSSIBLE IFR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. NEW TAFS ARE A BLEND OF THE
PREVIOUS TAFS WITH SOME OF THE NEW LAMP/MAV GUIDANCE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. IMPROVEMENT TO
VFR EXPECTED LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS

SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED WITH INCREASING
CLOUDINESS. EASTERLY WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DROP TO MVFR OR
LOWER IN RAIN AND SHOWERS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS
OR LESS.

MONDAY...MVFR OR LOWER CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS AND RAIN. IMPROVING
CONDITIONS LATE.

&&

.MARINE...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL WEAKEN ACROSS THE WATERS THIS MORNING WHILE LOW
PRESSURE MOVES UP THE OHIO VALLEY. RAINS WILL ARRIVE ACROSS THE
WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TONIGHT. AREAS OF DRIZZLE AND
SOME FOG WILL BE OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT. WINDS WILL BE RATHER LIGHT
EARLY TODAY...BUT THEN STEADILY INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
A SCA FLAG FOR GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS AND SEAS AROUND 5 FT WILL GO INTO
EFFECT AT MIDNIGHT AND LAST INTO FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH
GUSTS UP AROUND 25 KNOTS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH FRIDAY
EVENING AND FALL BELOW 25 KNOTS. IN ADDITION, SEAS WILL START TO
RISE AND ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 5 FEET. A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED THROUGH LATE FRIDAY FOR THE OCEAN.

SATURDAY...BOTH WINDS AND SEAS WILL FALL BELOW SMALL CRAFT CRITERIA
AND CONDITIONS ON THE AREA WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE, GRADUALLY
INCREASING AND POSSIBLY NEARING 25 KNOTS ON MONDAY. SEAS MAY ALSO
START TO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET ON OCEAN.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR PAZ062.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NJZ001-007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MEOLA
NEAR TERM...O`HARA
SHORT TERM...O`HARA
LONG TERM...MEOLA
AVIATION...MEOLA/O`HARA
MARINE...MEOLA/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 280125
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
925 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH INTO FRIDAY,
BEFORE GETTING PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OUT TO SEA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA SATURDAY WILL EXTEND INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS
OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT MAY THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TOOK OUT THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES WHERE THEY WERE INSERTED WITH
THE EARLIER UPDATE. NO CHANGES TO THE FROST ADVISORY. DEWPOINTS
ARE RUNNING A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA THAN EXPECTED,
BUT EVEN THE MORE CONSERVATIVE MET GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWERING
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS
SOUTH OF A READING-TRENTON-MANTOLOKING LINE. THESE SPRINKLES WILL
ADJOIN THE LIGHT SHOWERS THAT WERE ALREADY IN THE GRIDS FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH. RUNNING WITH THE NAM THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND SHUT
OFF THE SPRINKLES THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE BIG QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE CLEARING LINE
GETS. NORTH OF THIS CLEARING LINE, EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS LEADING TO PATCHY FROST. WHERE THE CLOUDS LINGER,
EXPECT LITTLE DROP OFF IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

AT THIS POINT, THINK THAT THE CLEARING LINE WILL NOT GET MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHERE IT IS AS OF 3 PM. HOWEVER, IF IT DOES, THE
FROST ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED.

ACROSS DELMARVA, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS THE ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z RUNS AND WPC GUIDANCE, POPS WERE BUMPED UP
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND ZONES THAT ADJOIN OKX`S CWA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION TOMORROW. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LATER WITH HOW FAST THE TROUGH APPROACHES,
AND THUS LATER WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN. THUS, I ADJUSTED POPS DOWN
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS (EXCEPT IN DELMARVA WHERE THE ONSHORE
FLOW MAY CONTINUE TO LEAD TO LIGHT PRECIP).

I ALSO TRENDED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY GIVEN TRENDS TODAY. TOMORROW
SHOULD BE SIMILAR EXCEPT THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLEARING BEFORE SUNSET.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE COMPRISED OF A STRONG CLOSED
LOW THAT SLOWLY EXITS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
OUR REGION HOWEVER REMAINS WITHIN A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME SHORT WAVES TRAVERSING THE FLOW WILL DRIVE SOME MAINLY
WEAK SURFACE LOWS NEAR OR ACROSS OUR REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS INITIALLY OCCURS AS A FRONTAL ZONE IS STALLED JUST TO OUR
SOUTH, BUT THEN GETS PUSHED WELL TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
A MORE NOTABLE FEATURE LOOKS TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ENERGY
EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PATTERN WILL TEND TO KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED AT TIMES AND ON THE
COOLER SIDE. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE
THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A STRONG CLOSED LOW IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS KEEPS CYCLONIC
FLOW OVERALL ACROSS OUR REGION, AND THE CURRENT CLOSED LOW IN THE
PLAINS IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY. SOME
GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHARPEN THIS SOME AS IT ARRIVES /AND SOME DIFFER
ON THE TIMING/, HOWEVER OVERALL THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY MAY BE ON
THE LOWER SIDE. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO PROMOTE SOME
SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY EVENING AS AN INITIAL WEAK
SURFACE FEATURE EXITS, THEN DURING FRIDAY AS THE PLAINS TROUGH
ARRIVES. AS A RESULT CHC POPS FOR THE AREA WITH THE IDEA FOR AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE. GIVEN A NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND THE
PROSPECTS FOR A LOT OF CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY AMPLIFIES SOME FROM
THE PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL WEDGE DOWN INTO OUR AREA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST FOR SATURDAY AND TO START
SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DRY AIR GETS PUSH SOUTHWARD ALONG
WITH SUBSIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE THEN MIGRATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS STARTING MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT. THERE COULD END UP BEING ENOUGH OVERRUNNING TO RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN. FOR NOW, MAINTAINED AS SHOWERS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE EAST MONDAY ALLOWING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE. WHILE SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY, A DRYING TREND IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THOUGH MAY APPROACH THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST SOME TEMPERATURE
MODERATION AHEAD OF IT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ADDED SOME VCSH`S TO OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT CEILINGS TO GENERALLY STAY BELOW 5000 FT AGL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT, EXPECT THAT CEILINGS WILL
BE MOSTLY VFR OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LOCALIZED MVFR
CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP, BUT I DON`T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN ANY TAF AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
ONCE AGAIN LOWER AFTER 18Z TOMORROW AS THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
MOVES INTO THE REGION.

WINDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z.
AFTER 12Z, EXPECT WINDS TO SETTLE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OR EAST, BUT
REMAIN NEAR 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
LOCAL FOG.

FRIDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS, WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR CEILINGS WHICH MAY THIN OUT FOR A TIME
FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY, THEN CLOUDS INCREASE AND LOWER DURING
SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY.

MONDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS OR A PERIOD OF
RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
ADDED SOME SPRINKLES SOUTH OF MANASQUAN. THESE SPRINKLES WILL
ADJOIN THE LIGHT SHOWERS THAT WERE ALREADY IN THE GRIDS FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH. RUNNING WITH THE NAM THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND SHUT
OFF THE SPRINKLES THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
MORNING AND SEAS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE, THEN DIMINISH SOME DURING SATURDAY. SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO THE 3-6 FOOT RANGE /LOWEST IN DELAWARE
BAY/ BEFORE SUBSIDING SOME DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ESPECIALLY
MONDAY WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY NEARING 25 KNOTS. THIS WOULD ALLOW
SEAS TO ALSO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ062.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 280125
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
925 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH INTO FRIDAY,
BEFORE GETTING PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OUT TO SEA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA SATURDAY WILL EXTEND INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS
OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT MAY THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
TOOK OUT THE MENTION OF SPRINKLES WHERE THEY WERE INSERTED WITH
THE EARLIER UPDATE. NO CHANGES TO THE FROST ADVISORY. DEWPOINTS
ARE RUNNING A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS THE ADVISED AREA THAN EXPECTED,
BUT EVEN THE MORE CONSERVATIVE MET GUIDANCE SHOWS LOWERING
DEWPOINTS THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS
SOUTH OF A READING-TRENTON-MANTOLOKING LINE. THESE SPRINKLES WILL
ADJOIN THE LIGHT SHOWERS THAT WERE ALREADY IN THE GRIDS FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH. RUNNING WITH THE NAM THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND SHUT
OFF THE SPRINKLES THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE BIG QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE CLEARING LINE
GETS. NORTH OF THIS CLEARING LINE, EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS LEADING TO PATCHY FROST. WHERE THE CLOUDS LINGER,
EXPECT LITTLE DROP OFF IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

AT THIS POINT, THINK THAT THE CLEARING LINE WILL NOT GET MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHERE IT IS AS OF 3 PM. HOWEVER, IF IT DOES, THE
FROST ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED.

ACROSS DELMARVA, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS THE ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
SUPPORTED BY THE 18Z RUNS AND WPC GUIDANCE, POPS WERE BUMPED UP
ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES AND ZONES THAT ADJOIN OKX`S CWA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION TOMORROW. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LATER WITH HOW FAST THE TROUGH APPROACHES,
AND THUS LATER WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN. THUS, I ADJUSTED POPS DOWN
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS (EXCEPT IN DELMARVA WHERE THE ONSHORE
FLOW MAY CONTINUE TO LEAD TO LIGHT PRECIP).

I ALSO TRENDED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY GIVEN TRENDS TODAY. TOMORROW
SHOULD BE SIMILAR EXCEPT THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLEARING BEFORE SUNSET.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE COMPRISED OF A STRONG CLOSED
LOW THAT SLOWLY EXITS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
OUR REGION HOWEVER REMAINS WITHIN A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME SHORT WAVES TRAVERSING THE FLOW WILL DRIVE SOME MAINLY
WEAK SURFACE LOWS NEAR OR ACROSS OUR REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS INITIALLY OCCURS AS A FRONTAL ZONE IS STALLED JUST TO OUR
SOUTH, BUT THEN GETS PUSHED WELL TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
A MORE NOTABLE FEATURE LOOKS TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ENERGY
EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PATTERN WILL TEND TO KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED AT TIMES AND ON THE
COOLER SIDE. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE
THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A STRONG CLOSED LOW IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS KEEPS CYCLONIC
FLOW OVERALL ACROSS OUR REGION, AND THE CURRENT CLOSED LOW IN THE
PLAINS IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY. SOME
GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHARPEN THIS SOME AS IT ARRIVES /AND SOME DIFFER
ON THE TIMING/, HOWEVER OVERALL THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY MAY BE ON
THE LOWER SIDE. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO PROMOTE SOME
SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY EVENING AS AN INITIAL WEAK
SURFACE FEATURE EXITS, THEN DURING FRIDAY AS THE PLAINS TROUGH
ARRIVES. AS A RESULT CHC POPS FOR THE AREA WITH THE IDEA FOR AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE. GIVEN A NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND THE
PROSPECTS FOR A LOT OF CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY AMPLIFIES SOME FROM
THE PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL WEDGE DOWN INTO OUR AREA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST FOR SATURDAY AND TO START
SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DRY AIR GETS PUSH SOUTHWARD ALONG
WITH SUBSIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE THEN MIGRATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS STARTING MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT. THERE COULD END UP BEING ENOUGH OVERRUNNING TO RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN. FOR NOW, MAINTAINED AS SHOWERS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE EAST MONDAY ALLOWING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE. WHILE SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY, A DRYING TREND IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THOUGH MAY APPROACH THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST SOME TEMPERATURE
MODERATION AHEAD OF IT.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ADDED SOME VCSH`S TO OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT CEILINGS TO GENERALLY STAY BELOW 5000 FT AGL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT, EXPECT THAT CEILINGS WILL
BE MOSTLY VFR OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LOCALIZED MVFR
CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP, BUT I DON`T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN ANY TAF AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
ONCE AGAIN LOWER AFTER 18Z TOMORROW AS THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
MOVES INTO THE REGION.

WINDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z.
AFTER 12Z, EXPECT WINDS TO SETTLE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OR EAST, BUT
REMAIN NEAR 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
LOCAL FOG.

FRIDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS, WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR CEILINGS WHICH MAY THIN OUT FOR A TIME
FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY, THEN CLOUDS INCREASE AND LOWER DURING
SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY.

MONDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS OR A PERIOD OF
RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
ADDED SOME SPRINKLES SOUTH OF MANASQUAN. THESE SPRINKLES WILL
ADJOIN THE LIGHT SHOWERS THAT WERE ALREADY IN THE GRIDS FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH. RUNNING WITH THE NAM THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND SHUT
OFF THE SPRINKLES THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
MORNING AND SEAS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE, THEN DIMINISH SOME DURING SATURDAY. SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO THE 3-6 FOOT RANGE /LOWEST IN DELAWARE
BAY/ BEFORE SUBSIDING SOME DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ESPECIALLY
MONDAY WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY NEARING 25 KNOTS. THIS WOULD ALLOW
SEAS TO ALSO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ062.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 272120
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
520 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH INTO FRIDAY,
BEFORE GETTING PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OUT TO SEA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA SATURDAY WILL EXTEND INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS
OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT MAY THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS
SOUTH OF A READING-TRENTON-MANTOLOKING LINE. THESE SPRINKLES WILL
ADJOIN THE LIGHT SHOWERS THAT WERE ALREADY IN THE GRIDS FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH. RUNNING WITH THE NAM THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND SHUT
OFF THE SPRINKLES THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE BIG QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE CLEARING LINE
GETS. NORTH OF THIS CLEARING LINE, EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS LEADING TO PATCHY FROST. WHERE THE CLOUDS LINGER,
EXPECT LITTLE DROP OFF IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

AT THIS POINT, THINK THAT THE CLEARING LINE WILL NOT GET MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHERE IT IS AS OF 3 PM. HOWEVER, IF IT DOES, THE
FROST ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED.

ACROSS DELMARVA, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS THE ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION TOMORROW. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LATER WITH HOW FAST THE TROUGH APPROACHES, AND
THUS LATER WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN. THUS, I ADJUSTED POPS DOWN
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS (EXCEPT IN DELMARVA WHERE THE ONSHORE
FLOW MAY CONTINUE TO LEAD TO LIGHT PRECIP).

I ALSO TRENDED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY GIVEN TRENDS TODAY. TOMORROW
SHOULD BE SIMILAR EXCEPT THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLEARING BEFORE SUNSET.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE COMPRISED OF A STRONG CLOSED
LOW THAT SLOWLY EXITS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
OUR REGION HOWEVER REMAINS WITHIN A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME SHORT WAVES TRAVERSING THE FLOW WILL DRIVE SOME MAINLY
WEAK SURFACE LOWS NEAR OR ACROSS OUR REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS INITIALLY OCCURS AS A FRONTAL ZONE IS STALLED JUST TO OUR
SOUTH, BUT THEN GETS PUSHED WELL TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
A MORE NOTABLE FEATURE LOOKS TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ENERGY
EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PATTERN WILL TEND TO KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED AT TIMES AND ON THE
COOLER SIDE. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE
THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A STRONG CLOSED LOW IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS KEEPS CYCLONIC
FLOW OVERALL ACROSS OUR REGION, AND THE CURRENT CLOSED LOW IN THE
PLAINS IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY. SOME
GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHARPEN THIS SOME AS IT ARRIVES /AND SOME DIFFER
ON THE TIMING/, HOWEVER OVERALL THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY MAY BE ON
THE LOWER SIDE. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO PROMOTE SOME
SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY EVENING AS AN INITIAL WEAK
SURFACE FEATURE EXITS, THEN DURING FRIDAY AS THE PLAINS TROUGH
ARRIVES. AS A RESULT CHC POPS FOR THE AREA WITH THE IDEA FOR AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE. GIVEN A NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND THE
PROSPECTS FOR A LOT OF CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY AMPLIFIES SOME FROM
THE PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL WEDGE DOWN INTO OUR AREA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST FOR SATURDAY AND TO START
SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DRY AIR GETS PUSH SOUTHWARD ALONG
WITH SUBSIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE THEN MIGRATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS STARTING MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT. THERE COULD END UP BEING ENOUGH OVERRUNNING TO RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN. FOR NOW, MAINTAINED AS SHOWERS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE EAST MONDAY ALLOWING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE. WHILE SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY, A DRYING TREND IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THOUGH MAY APPROACH THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST SOME TEMPERATURE
MODERATION AHEAD OF IT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ADDED SOME VCSH`S TO OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT CEILINGS TO GENERALLY STAY BELOW 5000 FT AGL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT, EXPECT THAT CEILINGS WILL
BE MOSTLY VFR OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LOCALIZED MVFR
CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP, BUT I DON`T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN ANY TAF AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
ONCE AGAIN LOWER AFTER 18Z TOMORROW AS THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
MOVES INTO THE REGION.

WINDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z.
AFTER 12Z, EXPECT WINDS TO SETTLE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OR EAST, BUT
REMAIN NEAR 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
LOCAL FOG.

FRIDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS, WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR CEILINGS WHICH MAY THIN OUT FOR A TIME
FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY, THEN CLOUDS INCREASE AND LOWER DURING
SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY.

MONDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS OR A PERIOD OF
RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
ADDED SOME SPRINKLES SOUTH OF MANASQUAN. THESE SPRINKLES WILL
ADJOIN THE LIGHT SHOWERS THAT WERE ALREADY IN THE GRIDS FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH. RUNNING WITH THE NAM THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND SHUT
OFF THE SPRINKLES THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
MORNING AND SEAS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE, THEN DIMINISH SOME DURING SATURDAY. SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO THE 3-6 FOOT RANGE /LOWEST IN DELAWARE
BAY/ BEFORE SUBSIDING SOME DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ESPECIALLY
MONDAY WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY NEARING 25 KNOTS. THIS WOULD ALLOW
SEAS TO ALSO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ062.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 272120
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
520 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH INTO FRIDAY,
BEFORE GETTING PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OUT TO SEA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA SATURDAY WILL EXTEND INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS
OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT MAY THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
SENT OUT AN UPDATE TO ACCOUNT FOR SOME SPRINKLES AND LIGHT SHOWERS
SOUTH OF A READING-TRENTON-MANTOLOKING LINE. THESE SPRINKLES WILL
ADJOIN THE LIGHT SHOWERS THAT WERE ALREADY IN THE GRIDS FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH. RUNNING WITH THE NAM THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND SHUT
OFF THE SPRINKLES THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE BIG QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE CLEARING LINE
GETS. NORTH OF THIS CLEARING LINE, EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS LEADING TO PATCHY FROST. WHERE THE CLOUDS LINGER,
EXPECT LITTLE DROP OFF IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN
THE MID TO UPPER 40S.

AT THIS POINT, THINK THAT THE CLEARING LINE WILL NOT GET MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHERE IT IS AS OF 3 PM. HOWEVER, IF IT DOES, THE
FROST ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED.

ACROSS DELMARVA, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS THE ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION TOMORROW. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LATER WITH HOW FAST THE TROUGH APPROACHES, AND
THUS LATER WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN. THUS, I ADJUSTED POPS DOWN
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS (EXCEPT IN DELMARVA WHERE THE ONSHORE
FLOW MAY CONTINUE TO LEAD TO LIGHT PRECIP).

I ALSO TRENDED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY GIVEN TRENDS TODAY. TOMORROW
SHOULD BE SIMILAR EXCEPT THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLEARING BEFORE SUNSET.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE COMPRISED OF A STRONG CLOSED
LOW THAT SLOWLY EXITS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
OUR REGION HOWEVER REMAINS WITHIN A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME SHORT WAVES TRAVERSING THE FLOW WILL DRIVE SOME MAINLY
WEAK SURFACE LOWS NEAR OR ACROSS OUR REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS INITIALLY OCCURS AS A FRONTAL ZONE IS STALLED JUST TO OUR
SOUTH, BUT THEN GETS PUSHED WELL TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
A MORE NOTABLE FEATURE LOOKS TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ENERGY
EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PATTERN WILL TEND TO KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED AT TIMES AND ON THE
COOLER SIDE. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE
THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A STRONG CLOSED LOW IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS KEEPS CYCLONIC
FLOW OVERALL ACROSS OUR REGION, AND THE CURRENT CLOSED LOW IN THE
PLAINS IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY. SOME
GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHARPEN THIS SOME AS IT ARRIVES /AND SOME DIFFER
ON THE TIMING/, HOWEVER OVERALL THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY MAY BE ON
THE LOWER SIDE. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO PROMOTE SOME
SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY EVENING AS AN INITIAL WEAK
SURFACE FEATURE EXITS, THEN DURING FRIDAY AS THE PLAINS TROUGH
ARRIVES. AS A RESULT CHC POPS FOR THE AREA WITH THE IDEA FOR AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE. GIVEN A NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND THE
PROSPECTS FOR A LOT OF CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY AMPLIFIES SOME FROM
THE PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL WEDGE DOWN INTO OUR AREA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST FOR SATURDAY AND TO START
SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DRY AIR GETS PUSH SOUTHWARD ALONG
WITH SUBSIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE THEN MIGRATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS STARTING MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT. THERE COULD END UP BEING ENOUGH OVERRUNNING TO RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN. FOR NOW, MAINTAINED AS SHOWERS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE EAST MONDAY ALLOWING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE. WHILE SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY, A DRYING TREND IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THOUGH MAY APPROACH THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST SOME TEMPERATURE
MODERATION AHEAD OF IT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

ADDED SOME VCSH`S TO OUR SOUTHERN TERMINALS THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
EXPECT CEILINGS TO GENERALLY STAY BELOW 5000 FT AGL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT, EXPECT THAT CEILINGS WILL
BE MOSTLY VFR OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LOCALIZED MVFR
CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP, BUT I DON`T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN ANY TAF AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL
ONCE AGAIN LOWER AFTER 18Z TOMORROW AS THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS
MOVES INTO THE REGION.

WINDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z.
AFTER 12Z, EXPECT WINDS TO SETTLE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OR EAST, BUT
REMAIN NEAR 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
LOCAL FOG.

FRIDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS, WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR CEILINGS WHICH MAY THIN OUT FOR A TIME
FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY, THEN CLOUDS INCREASE AND LOWER DURING
SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY.

MONDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS OR A PERIOD OF
RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
ADDED SOME SPRINKLES SOUTH OF MANASQUAN. THESE SPRINKLES WILL
ADJOIN THE LIGHT SHOWERS THAT WERE ALREADY IN THE GRIDS FURTHER
TO THE SOUTH. RUNNING WITH THE NAM THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND SHUT
OFF THE SPRINKLES THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
MORNING AND SEAS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE, THEN DIMINISH SOME DURING SATURDAY. SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO THE 3-6 FOOT RANGE /LOWEST IN DELAWARE
BAY/ BEFORE SUBSIDING SOME DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ESPECIALLY
MONDAY WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY NEARING 25 KNOTS. THIS WOULD ALLOW
SEAS TO ALSO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ062.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KRUZDLO
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 271932
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
332 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN JUST TO OUR SOUTH INTO FRIDAY,
BEFORE GETTING PUSHED INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES DURING FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY THURSDAY BEFORE SHIFTING OUT TO SEA FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY CANADA SATURDAY WILL EXTEND INTO OUR
REGION THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL THEN TRACK ACROSS
OUR AREA MONDAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
A COLD FRONT MAY THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THE BIG QUESTION TONIGHT WILL BE HOW FAR SOUTH THE CLEARING LINE
GETS. NORTH OF THIS CLEARING LINE, EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS LEADING TO PATCHY FROST. WHERE THE CLOUDS LINGER, EXPECT
LITTLE DROP OFF IN OVERNIGHT TEMPS, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE MID
TO UPPER 40S.

AT THIS POINT, THINK THAT THE CLEARING LINE WILL NOT GET MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH THAN WHERE IT IS AS OF 3 PM. HOWEVER, IF IT DOES, THE
FROST ADVISORY MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED.

ACROSS DELMARVA, A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP AS THE ONSHORE
FLOW CONTINUES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION TOMORROW. MODELS
HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY LATER WITH HOW FAST THE TROUGH APPROACHES, AND
THUS LATER WITH THE ONSET OF RAIN. THUS, I ADJUSTED POPS DOWN
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS (EXCEPT IN DELMARVA WHERE THE ONSHORE
FLOW MAY CONTINUE TO LEAD TO LIGHT PRECIP).

I ALSO TRENDED TEMPS DOWN SLIGHTLY GIVEN TRENDS TODAY. TOMORROW
SHOULD BE SIMILAR EXCEPT THERE SHOULD BE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF
CLEARING BEFORE SUNSET.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE COMPRISED OF A STRONG CLOSED
LOW THAT SLOWLY EXITS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AREA THROUGH FRIDAY.
OUR REGION HOWEVER REMAINS WITHIN A CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME INTO THE
WEEKEND. SOME SHORT WAVES TRAVERSING THE FLOW WILL DRIVE SOME MAINLY
WEAK SURFACE LOWS NEAR OR ACROSS OUR REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THIS INITIALLY OCCURS AS A FRONTAL ZONE IS STALLED JUST TO OUR
SOUTH, BUT THEN GETS PUSHED WELL TO OUR SOUTH FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
A MORE NOTABLE FEATURE LOOKS TO ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ENERGY
EJECTS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS
PATTERN WILL TEND TO KEEP OUR WEATHER UNSETTLED AT TIMES AND ON THE
COOLER SIDE. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN
BLENDED IN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE
THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING
OFFICES.

FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...A STRONG CLOSED LOW IN THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD. THIS KEEPS CYCLONIC
FLOW OVERALL ACROSS OUR REGION, AND THE CURRENT CLOSED LOW IN THE
PLAINS IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND MOVE ACROSS OUR AREA FRIDAY. SOME
GUIDANCE WANTS TO SHARPEN THIS SOME AS IT ARRIVES /AND SOME DIFFER
ON THE TIMING/, HOWEVER OVERALL THE MOISTURE AVAILABILITY MAY BE ON
THE LOWER SIDE. THERE SHOULD STILL BE ENOUGH FORCING TO PROMOTE SOME
SHOWERS DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THURSDAY EVENING AS AN INITIAL WEAK
SURFACE FEATURE EXITS, THEN DURING FRIDAY AS THE PLAINS TROUGH
ARRIVES. AS A RESULT CHC POPS FOR THE AREA WITH THE IDEA FOR AT
LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS, HOWEVER IT APPEARS RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE
ON THE LIGHT SIDE. GIVEN A NORTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND THE
PROSPECTS FOR A LOT OF CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE COOL
SIDE.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY AMPLIFIES SOME FROM
THE PLAINS TOWARD THE OHIO VALLEY INTO SUNDAY, HIGH PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL WEDGE DOWN INTO OUR AREA. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A CONTINUATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW IN THE LOWER
LEVELS. THE AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER AT LEAST FOR SATURDAY AND TO START
SUNDAY WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH DRY AIR GETS PUSH SOUTHWARD ALONG
WITH SUBSIDENCE. LOW PRESSURE THEN MIGRATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS
TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR
AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS STARTING MAINLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT. THERE COULD END UP BEING ENOUGH OVERRUNNING TO RESULT IN A
PERIOD OF STEADIER RAIN. FOR NOW, MAINTAINED AS SHOWERS.

FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
AMPLIFY INTO THE EAST MONDAY ALLOWING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TO SHIFT
OFFSHORE. WHILE SOME SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY, A DRYING TREND IS
CURRENTLY FORECAST WITH A COLD FRONT OFFSHORE. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
THOUGH MAY APPROACH THE AREA LATER WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH, ALLOWING FOR AT LEAST SOME TEMPERATURE
MODERATION AHEAD OF IT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

EXPECT CEILINGS TO GENERALLY STAY BELOW 5000 FT AGL THROUGH THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. HOWEVER, AT THIS POINT, EXPECT THAT CEILINGS WILL
BE MOSTLY VFR OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE THAT LOCALIZED MVFR
CEILINGS COULD DEVELOP, BUT I DON`T HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
INCLUDE IN ANY TAF AT THIS TIME. CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WILL ONCE
AGAIN LOWER AFTER 18Z TOMORROW AS THE NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVES
INTO THE REGION.

WINDS SHOULD BE MOSTLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z.
AFTER 12Z, EXPECT WINDS TO SETTLE OUT OF THE NORTHEAST OR EAST, BUT
REMAIN NEAR 10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT...MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR ALONG WITH SOME SHOWERS AND
LOCAL FOG.

FRIDAY...MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SOME SHOWERS, WHICH SHOULD IMPROVE TO
VFR AT NIGHT.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR CEILINGS WHICH MAY THIN OUT FOR A TIME
FROM THE NORTH SATURDAY, THEN CLOUDS INCREASE AND LOWER DURING
SUNDAY WITH SHOWERS LATER SUNDAY.

MONDAY...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE WITH SHOWERS OR A PERIOD OF
RAIN.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW. A FEW GUSTS NEAR OR ABOVE 20 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW
MORNING AND SEAS WILL SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASE AS WELL.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS POSSIBLE, THEN DIMINISH SOME DURING SATURDAY. SEAS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BUILD INTO THE 3-6 FOOT RANGE /LOWEST IN DELAWARE
BAY/ BEFORE SUBSIDING SOME DURING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...NORTHEASTERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN ESPECIALLY
MONDAY WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY NEARING 25 KNOTS. THIS WOULD ALLOW
SEAS TO ALSO BUILD TO AROUND 5 FEET ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ062.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/JOHNSON
MARINE...GORSE/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 271600
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1200 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WEAKENS TO OUR WEST AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY.
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND LOSE CONTROL OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FEW CHANGES FOR THE 930 AM UPDATE. FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SINK
SOUTH, THOUGH SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID
DAY. THE LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS COULD TEMPER HIGHS TODAY,
BUT AT THIS POINT, NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO LOWER HIGHS YET.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AROUND 630 AM. IT WILL CONTINUE
TO SINK TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR
THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW FOR THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO CAUSE THE WIND TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN ONSHORE IN OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BROUGHT AND EXTENSIVE DECK OF LOW CLOUDS
TO OUR REGION DURING THE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT
SLOWLY TODAY AND THEY SHOULD ERODE GRADUALLY FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER, THE CLEARING OR PARTIAL CLEARING ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA
AND THE CENTRAL PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE. OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO, SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING
UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER DOWN INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.

TODAY`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF
TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THEY WILL
FAVOR THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE SKY IS FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING CLOUDS
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BUILD
BACK UP INTO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY FROM THE SOUTH. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES, AS WELL, LATE TONIGHT.

THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT ALONG WITH A LIGHT WIND SHOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 30S THERE. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY
FOR NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA AND FOR THE NEW JERSEY
COUNTIES OF SOMERSET, HUNTERDON, MORRIS, WARREN AND SUSSEX. WHILE
SOME FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS,
WE DO NOT ISSUE FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS UNTIL MAY 1 FOR THE
PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES OF CARBON AND MONROE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY
AND THE LATE START TO THEIR GROWING SEASON.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD
FAVOR THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT, BUT SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THESE
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH NO INSTABILITY FORECAST, WE DO NOT EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, A SEPARATE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED TO OUR WEST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO OUR SOUTH.
AGAIN, SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. THESE COULD ONCE AGAIN BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. AS WITH THURSDAY, NO INSTABILITY IS FORECAST, SO WE DO
NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS.

A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA NOSES DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA. WE COULD STILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS DRY PERIOD MAY NOT LAST LONG AS A QUICK MOVING SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.
THIS MAY HELP BRING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WELL. THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM MOSTLY TO
OUR SOUTH, AND ONLY BRINGS OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS, WHICH WOULD BRING A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH NO INSTABILITY
FORECAST, WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW CLOUDS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT OUT TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, CEILINGS MAY RISE INTO THE VFR
CATEGORY AT TIMES.

SOLID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT OUR TAF SITES UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BROKEN CLOUD DECK IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME SCATTERED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT KRDG,
KABE, KTTN, KPNE AND PERHAPS KPHL. A BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR
CEILING IS FORECAST FOR KILG, KMIV AND KACY.

VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3500 TO 4500 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AROUND
KILG, KMIV AND KACY.

A NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE AND KRDG FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO VEER
TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS AT KILG, KMIV AND KACY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, BECOMING MVFR OR IFR LATE IN
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. GUSTY E-NE
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...VFR EARLY...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR WITH SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY ON THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD THROUGH 4 PM EDT AS SEAS HAVE BEEN SLOW TO
SUBSIDE.

THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEFORE REDEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS,
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEAS COULD ALSO BUILD TO 5 FEET DURING
THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY FALL BELOW 5 FEET OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WINDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ062.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 271333
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
933 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WEAKENS TO OUR WEST AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY.
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND LOSE CONTROL OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FEW CHANGES FOR THE 930 AM UPDATE. FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SINK
SOUTH, THOUGH SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID
DAY. THE LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS COULD TEMPER HIGHS TODAY,
BUT AT THIS POINT, NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO LOWER HIGHS YET.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AROUND 630 AM. IT WILL CONTINUE
TO SINK TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR
THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW FOR THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO CAUSE THE WIND TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN ONSHORE IN OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BROUGHT AND EXTENSIVE DECK OF LOW CLOUDS
TO OUR REGION DURING THE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT
SLOWLY TODAY AND THEY SHOULD ERODE GRADUALLY FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER, THE CLEARING OR PARTIAL CLEARING ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA
AND THE CENTRAL PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE. OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO, SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING
UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER DOWN INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.

TODAY`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF
TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THEY WILL
FAVOR THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE SKY IS FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING CLOUDS
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BUILD
BACK UP INTO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY FROM THE SOUTH. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES, AS WELL, LATE TONIGHT.

THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT ALONG WITH A LIGHT WIND SHOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 30S THERE. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY
FOR NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA AND FOR THE NEW JERSEY
COUNTIES OF SOMERSET, HUNTERDON, MORRIS, WARREN AND SUSSEX. WHILE
SOME FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS,
WE DO NOT ISSUE FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS UNTIL MAY 1 FOR THE
PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES OF CARBON AND MONROE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY
AND THE LATE START TO THEIR GROWING SEASON.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD
FAVOR THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT, BUT SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THESE
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH NO INSTABILITY FORECAST, WE DO NOT EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, A SEPARATE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED TO OUR WEST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO OUR SOUTH.
AGAIN, SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. THESE COULD ONCE AGAIN BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. AS WITH THURSDAY, NO INSTABILITY IS FORECAST, SO WE DO
NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS.

A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA NOSES DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA. WE COULD STILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS DRY PERIOD MAY NOT LAST LONG AS A QUICK MOVING SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.
THIS MAY HELP BRING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WELL. THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM MOSTLY TO
OUR SOUTH, AND ONLY BRINGS OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS, WHICH WOULD BRING A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH NO INSTABILITY
FORECAST, WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW CLOUDS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT OUT TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, CEILINGS MAY RISE INTO THE VFR
CATEGORY AT TIMES.

SOLID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT OUR TAF SITES UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BROKEN CLOUD DECK IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME SCATTERED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT KRDG,
KABE, KTTN, KPNE AND PERHAPS KPHL. A BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR
CEILING IS FORECAST FOR KILG, KMIV AND KACY.

VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3500 TO 4500 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AROUND
KILG, KMIV AND KACY.

A NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE AND KRDG FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO VEER
TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS AT KILG, KMIV AND KACY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, BECOMING MVFR OR IFR LATE IN
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. GUSTY E-NE
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...VFR EARLY...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR WITH SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1000 AM ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF ATLANTIC CITY. FOR OUR WATERS FROM
ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD WE HAVE KEPT THE EXPIRATION TIME AT NOON
FOR NOW, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WAVE HEIGHTS AT BUOY
44009 REMAIN NEAR 6 FT.

THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEFORE REDEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS,
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEAS COULD ALSO BUILD TO 5 FEET DURING
THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY FALL BELOW 5 FEET OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WINDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ062.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450-
     451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 271333
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
933 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WEAKENS TO OUR WEST AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY.
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND LOSE CONTROL OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FEW CHANGES FOR THE 930 AM UPDATE. FRONT CONTINUES TO SLOWLY SINK
SOUTH, THOUGH SHOWERS COULD LINGER OVER THE REGION THROUGH MID
DAY. THE LINGERING SHOWERS AND CLOUDS COULD TEMPER HIGHS TODAY,
BUT AT THIS POINT, NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO LOWER HIGHS YET.

PREVIOUS NEAR TERM DISCUSSION...THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA AROUND 630 AM. IT WILL CONTINUE
TO SINK TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING AND IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR
THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW FOR THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO CAUSE THE WIND TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN ONSHORE IN OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BROUGHT AND EXTENSIVE DECK OF LOW CLOUDS
TO OUR REGION DURING THE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT
SLOWLY TODAY AND THEY SHOULD ERODE GRADUALLY FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER, THE CLEARING OR PARTIAL CLEARING ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA
AND THE CENTRAL PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE. OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO, SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING
UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER DOWN INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.

TODAY`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF
TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THEY WILL
FAVOR THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE SKY IS FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING CLOUDS
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BUILD
BACK UP INTO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY FROM THE SOUTH. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES, AS WELL, LATE TONIGHT.

THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT ALONG WITH A LIGHT WIND SHOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 30S THERE. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY
FOR NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA AND FOR THE NEW JERSEY
COUNTIES OF SOMERSET, HUNTERDON, MORRIS, WARREN AND SUSSEX. WHILE
SOME FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS,
WE DO NOT ISSUE FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS UNTIL MAY 1 FOR THE
PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES OF CARBON AND MONROE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY
AND THE LATE START TO THEIR GROWING SEASON.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD
FAVOR THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT, BUT SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THESE
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH NO INSTABILITY FORECAST, WE DO NOT EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, A SEPARATE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED TO OUR WEST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO OUR SOUTH.
AGAIN, SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. THESE COULD ONCE AGAIN BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. AS WITH THURSDAY, NO INSTABILITY IS FORECAST, SO WE DO
NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS.

A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA NOSES DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA. WE COULD STILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS DRY PERIOD MAY NOT LAST LONG AS A QUICK MOVING SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.
THIS MAY HELP BRING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WELL. THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM MOSTLY TO
OUR SOUTH, AND ONLY BRINGS OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS, WHICH WOULD BRING A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH NO INSTABILITY
FORECAST, WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW CLOUDS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT OUT TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, CEILINGS MAY RISE INTO THE VFR
CATEGORY AT TIMES.

SOLID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT OUR TAF SITES UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BROKEN CLOUD DECK IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME SCATTERED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT KRDG,
KABE, KTTN, KPNE AND PERHAPS KPHL. A BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR
CEILING IS FORECAST FOR KILG, KMIV AND KACY.

VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3500 TO 4500 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AROUND
KILG, KMIV AND KACY.

A NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE AND KRDG FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO VEER
TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS AT KILG, KMIV AND KACY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, BECOMING MVFR OR IFR LATE IN
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. GUSTY E-NE
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...VFR EARLY...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR WITH SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1000 AM ON
OUR OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF ATLANTIC CITY. FOR OUR WATERS FROM
ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD WE HAVE KEPT THE EXPIRATION TIME AT NOON
FOR NOW, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR AS WAVE HEIGHTS AT BUOY
44009 REMAIN NEAR 6 FT.

THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEFORE REDEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS,
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEAS COULD ALSO BUILD TO 5 FEET DURING
THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY FALL BELOW 5 FEET OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WINDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ062.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450-
     451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 271042
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
642 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO
OUR SOUTH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WEAKENS TO OUR WEST AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY.
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CENTERED ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
HIGH WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND LOSE CONTROL OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY. AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL
APPROACH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN VIRGINIA
AROUND 630 AM. IT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AND IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW FOR THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM
THE NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO CAUSE THE WIND TO BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR FORECAST
AREA FOR THIS AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN ONSHORE IN OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BROUGHT AND EXTENSIVE DECK OF LOW CLOUDS
TO OUR REGION DURING THE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT
SLOWLY TODAY AND THEY SHOULD ERODE GRADUALLY FROM THE NORTH.
HOWEVER, THE CLEARING OR PARTIAL CLEARING ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
REACH MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA
AND THE CENTRAL PART OF THE JERSEY SHORE. OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES
WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO, SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING
UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER DOWN INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.

TODAY`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF
TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THEY WILL
FAVOR THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE SKY IS FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING CLOUDS
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BUILD
BACK UP INTO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY FROM THE SOUTH. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES, AS WELL, LATE TONIGHT.

THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT ALONG WITH A LIGHT WIND SHOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP
INTO THE 30S THERE. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY
FOR NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA AND FOR THE NEW JERSEY
COUNTIES OF SOMERSET, HUNTERDON, MORRIS, WARREN AND SUSSEX. WHILE
SOME FROST AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS,
WE DO NOT ISSUE FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS UNTIL MAY 1 FOR THE
PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES OF CARBON AND MONROE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY
AND THE LATE START TO THEIR GROWING SEASON.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD
FAVOR THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE
FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT, BUT SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE
FORECAST TO CROSS THE AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THESE
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS
THE AREA. WITH NO INSTABILITY FORECAST, WE DO NOT EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE THEIR WAY INTO OUR AREA.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, A SEPARATE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM LOCATED TO OUR WEST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO OUR SOUTH.
AGAIN, SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH
THE STRONGEST SHORT WAVE EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE
EVENING. THESE COULD ONCE AGAIN BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE AREA. AS WITH THURSDAY, NO INSTABILITY IS FORECAST, SO WE DO
NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS.

A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA NOSES DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA. WE COULD STILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS DRY PERIOD MAY NOT LAST LONG AS A QUICK MOVING SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.
THIS MAY HELP BRING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WELL. THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM MOSTLY TO
OUR SOUTH, AND ONLY BRINGS OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS, WHICH WOULD BRING A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH NO INSTABILITY
FORECAST, WE WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW CLOUDS WILL MAINTAIN GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS AT OUT TAF
SITES THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, CEILINGS MAY RISE INTO THE VFR
CATEGORY AT TIMES.

SOLID IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT OUR TAF SITES UNTIL
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BROKEN CLOUD DECK IS ANTICIPATED TO
BECOME SCATTERED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT KRDG,
KABE, KTTN, KPNE AND PERHAPS KPHL. A BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR
CEILING IS FORECAST FOR KILG, KMIV AND KACY.

VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3500 TO 4500 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AROUND
KILG, KMIV AND KACY.

A NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE AND KRDG FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO VEER
TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS AT KILG, KMIV AND KACY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE
FOR TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, BECOMING MVFR OR IFR LATE IN
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. GUSTY E-NE
WINDS AROUND 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR
POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...VFR EARLY...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR WITH SHOWERS
DURING THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WE HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1000 AM ON OUR
OCEAN WATERS NORTH OF ATLANTIC CITY AND UNTIL NOON FOR OUR WATERS
FROM ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD TO ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS SOME TIME TO
FALL BELOW 5 FEET.

THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FOR THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING BEFORE REDEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS,
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEAS COULD ALSO BUILD TO 5 FEET DURING
THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY FALL BELOW 5 FEET OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WINDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ062.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450-
     451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO/ROBERTSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270756
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ALONG THIS BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT, WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WEAKENS TO OUR WEST AND PASSES SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY.
OUR AREA WILL REMAIN ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS HIGH WILL
MOVE EASTWARD AND LOSE CONTROL OVER OUR AREA SUNDAY. AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE AND ASSOCIATED FRONTAL BOUNDARIES WILL APPROACH THE AREA
LATE SUNDAY AND POSSIBLY BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY AND
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS NORTHERN AND EASTERN VIRGINIA
AROUND 330 AM. IT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING
AND IT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NEAR THE VIRGINIA AND NORTH CAROLINA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON.

OUR REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHEASTERLY
SURFACE FLOW FOR THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING DOWN FROM THE
NORTH IS ANTICIPATED TO CAUSE THE WIND TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN ONSHORE IN OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW BROUGHT AND EXTENSIVE DECK OF LOW CLOUDS TO
OUR REGION DURING THE NIGHT. THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT SLOWLY
TODAY AND THEY SHOULD ERODE GRADUALLY FROM THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THE
CLEARING OR PARTIAL CLEARING ARE NOT EXPECTED TO REACH MUCH FARTHER
SOUTH THAN THE PHILADELPHIA METROPOLITAN AREA AND THE CENTRAL PART
OF THE JERSEY SHORE. OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY. ALSO, SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES THIS MORNING UNTIL THE FRONT MOVES FARTHER
DOWN INTO SOUTHERN VIRGINIA.

TODAY`S TEMPERATURES WILL BE CONSIDERABLY COOLER THAN THOSE OF
TUESDAY. HIGHS SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THEY WILL
FAVOR THE MID TO UPPER 50S ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE SKY IS FORECAST TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES
THIS EVENING AND MOSTLY CLOUDY OVER THE SOUTH. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SPREADING CLOUDS
NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BUILD
BACK UP INTO NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND EXTREME SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY FROM THE SOUTH. THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY FOG IN OUR
SOUTHERN COUNTIES, AS WELL, LATE TONIGHT.

THE MOSTLY CLEAR SKY OVER OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR MUCH OF THE
NIGHT ALONG WITH A LIGHT WIND SHOULD CAUSE TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO
THE 30S THERE. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR
NORTHAMPTON COUNTY IN PENNSYLVANIA AND FOR THE NEW JERSEY COUNTIES
OF SOMERSET, HUNTERDON, MORRIS, WARREN AND SUSSEX. WHILE SOME FROST
AND FREEZING TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE IN THE POCONOS, WE DO NOT
ISSUE FROST AND FREEZE PRODUCTS UNTIL MAY 1 FOR THE PENNSYLVANIA
COUNTIES OF CARBON AND MONROE BASED ON CLIMATOLOGY AND THE LATE
START TO THEIR GROWING SEASON.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES IN OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES SHOULD
FAVOR THE 40S.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. A COUPLE OF WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT, BUT SHOULD REMAIN TO OUR
SOUTH. HOWEVER, SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES ARE FORECAST TO CROSS THE
AREA THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. AS THESE MOVE ACROSS THE AREA,
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. WITH NO
INSTABILITY FORECAST, WE DO NOT EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO MAKE THEIR
WAY INTO OUR AREA.

ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT, A SEPARATE SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
LOCATED TO OUR WEST WILL WEAKEN AND MOVE TO OUR SOUTH. AGAIN,
SEVERAL VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA, WITH THE
STRONGEST SHORT WAVE EXPECTED LATER IN THE DAY AND INTO THE EVENING.
THESE COULD ONCE AGAIN BRING A PERIOD OF SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. AS
WITH THURSDAY, NO INSTABILITY IS FORECAST, SO WE DO NOT EXPECT
THUNDERSTORMS.

A DRY PERIOD IS EXPECTED SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA NOSES DOWN ACROSS OUR AREA. WE COULD STILL REMAIN
FAIRLY CLOUDY DURING THE DAY WITH THE EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS DRY PERIOD MAY NOT LAST LONG AS A QUICK MOVING SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.
THIS MAY HELP BRING AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.

THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES WITH THE APPROACHING SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OUT OF THE MID
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND THROUGH THE SOUTHERN OHIO VALLEY AS A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTHWARD AS WELL. THE GFS KEEPS THE SYSTEM MOSTLY TO
OUR SOUTH, AND ONLY BRINGS OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE LOW ACROSS OUR
SOUTHERN AREAS, WHICH WOULD BRING A LARGE SWATH OF PRECIPITATION
THROUGH THE ENTIRE AREA. WE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR THE
ENTIRE AREA, WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WITH NO INSTABILITY FORECAST, WE
WILL KEEP THUNDERSTORMS OUT OF THE FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW CLOUDS WILL MAINTAIN IFR CONDITIONS AT KTTN, KPNE, KPHL, KILG,
KMIV AND KACY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUDS ARE FORECAST TO LIFT
INTO THE MVFR RANGE BETWEEN ABOUT 1300Z AND 1400Z. MVFR CEILINGS ARE
EXPECTED FOR KRDG AND KABE THIS MORNING.

IMPROVEMENT TO VFR IS NOT EXPECTED AT OUR TAF SITES UNTIL THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. THE BROKEN CLOUD DECK IS ANTICIPATED TO BECOME
SCATTERED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT KRDG, KABE, KTTN,
KPNE AND PERHAPS KPHL. A BROKEN TO OVERCAST VFR CEILING IS FORECAST
FOR KILG, KMIV AND KACY.

VFR CEILINGS AROUND 3500 TO 4500 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD BACK
NORTHWARD TONIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT AROUND KILG,
KMIV AND KACY.

A NORTHEAST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10 KNOTS THIS MORNING IS FORECAST TO
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE AND KRDG FOR
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE WIND DIRECTION IS EXPECTED TO VEER
TOWARD THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 5 TO 10
KNOTS AT KILG, KMIV AND KACY BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE FOR
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY-THURSDAY NIGHT...VFR EARLY, BECOMING MVFR OR IFR LATE IN
THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN POSSIBLE.

FRIDAY...MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS. GUSTY E-NE WINDS
AROUND 20 KNOTS.

FRIDAY NIGHT...IMPROVING TO VFR.

SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR CIGS, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY...VFR EARLY...POSSIBLY LOWERING TO MVFR WITH SHOWERS DURING
THE DAY.

&&

.MARINE...
WE HAVE EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1000 AM ON OUR OCEAN
WATERS NORTH OF ATLANTIC CITY AND UNTIL NOON FOR OUR WATERS FROM
ATLANTIC CITY SOUTHWARD TO ALLOW WAVE HEIGHTS SOME TIME TO FALL
BELOW 5 FEET.

THE NORTHEASTERLY FLOW IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING BEFORE REDEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

THURSDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
DEVELOP DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS COULD GUST AROUND 25 KNOTS,
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. SEAS COULD ALSO BUILD TO 5 FEET DURING
THIS PERIOD.

SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY...SEAS MAY FALL BELOW 5 FEET OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. WINDS MAY BEGIN TO INCREASE LATER SUNDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ062.
NJ...FROST ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 8 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ001-
     007>010.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ450-
     451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...IOVINO/ROBERTSON
MARINE...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270434
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1234 AM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THEN STALL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON BAY CANADA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BUILD DOWN INTO OUR
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE THOUGH IN THE OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY SLOWLY MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT WAS LOCATED ACROSS TALBOT COUNTY AND CAROLINE
COUNTY IN MARYLAND, AND ACROSS SOUTHERN SUSSEX COUNTY IN DELAWARE
AROUND MIDNIGHT. THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO SINK TO THE SOUTH.
SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL RIDE ALONG THE FRONT AND THEY MAY CONTINUE
TO AFFECT OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES OVERNIGHT.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE OVERSPREAD MUCH OF OUR REGION IN THE NORTHEAST
FLOW. THE CLOUDS MAY BEGIN TO ERODE FROM THE NORTH TOWARD MORNING.

MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR THE 40S IN OUR
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES AND THE LOWER 50S IN THE SOUTH.
THERE MAY BE SOME READINGS IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 30S IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DECELERATE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
INTO SRN VA AND NC ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST PASSAGES WILL BUILD SEWD INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS DRIER AIR WITH THIS
HIGH ADVECTING SOUTH INTO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NW NJ DURING THE
MORNING BUT STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS A RESULT OF THE WINDS ACROSS SE PA/S
NJ/DELMARVA REMAINING VEERED OUT OF THE NE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY FROM THE 12Z NAM,
INDICATE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. THE MARINE STRATOCU WILL
BE STUBBORN TO ERODE THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE MU50S IN THE DELMARVA AND COASTAL NJ TO LM60S IN E PA AND IN
C/NW NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE COMPRISED OF A STRONG
CLOSED LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY THAT THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS ALLOWS CYCLONIC FLOW TO
OCCUR ACROSS OUR REGION FOR A TIME. THERE ARE SOME POCKETS OF
ENERGY FORECAST TO EVOLVE AROUND THIS LARGE TROUGH, ALLOWING LOW
PRESSURE TO TRACK ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH
THURSDAY THEN ANOTHER ONE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME
UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES, MOSTLY ON THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL
IMPACT THE TEMPERATURES, ESPECIALLY GIVEN THROUGH SUNDAY STRONG
HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED WELL TO OUR NORTH. WE USED A
MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN BLENDED IN THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A POTENT CLOSED LOW CENTERED
NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS
THE AREA. A STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE WITH ENERGY
TRAVERSING IT, WITH THE MAIN ENERGY BACK INTO THE PLAINS. SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO BUILD DOWN INTO OUR AREA AT FIRST, HOWEVER
A LEAD IMPULSE WILL DRIVE WAA AND OVERRUNNING INTO OUR AREA DURING
THURSDAY. HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHERN
EXTENT AND ALSO COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS GIVEN
POTENTIALLY MUCH DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD. LOOKS LIKE THE
HIGHEST CHCS FOR SHOWERS IS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND
THIS IS WHERE THE HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY PLACED. GIVEN A
NORTHEASTERLY LOW- LEVEL FLOW AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A DECENT
AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER, WE ARE ANTICIPATING THURSDAY TO BE ON THE
COOL SIDE.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW FEATURE TO OUR SOUTH
OVERALL SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TO START FRIDAY. AS ADDITIONAL
ENERGY AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY, STRONG AND
EXPANSIVE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY
WILL WEDGE DOWN INTO OUR AREA ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND MUCH OF
SUNDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVERALL IN THE
LOWER LEVELS, WITH COOL TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ALTHOUGH SOME
MODERATION SHOULD OCCUR SUNDAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE
MIGRATING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY WILL PUSH A WARM FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY.
SOME WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS
ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE EVOLUTION OF AN INITIAL CLOSED LOW
WELL TO OUR WEST, AS IT MAY OPEN UP INTO THE EAST, DURING EARLY
NEXT WEEK WILL DETERMINE OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. SOME GUIDANCE
INDICATES A FASTER EVOLUTION TO THIS FEATURE WHICH WOULD END ANY
PRECIPITATION CHCS SOONER. THE FLOW OVERALL LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE
BLOCKY ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A SLOWER EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SURFACE
LOW, THEREFORE WE FAVORED WPC GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS THE LOW ARRIVING
DURING TUESDAY. AS A RESULT, A POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED REGIME DURING
THIS TIME FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...IFR CIGS MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH NE WIND.

WEDNESDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS TO START IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO CIGS BETWEEN 3000-4000 FT DURING MIDDAY OR THE AFTERNOON
WITH A N-NE WIND GUSTS UNDER 15 KT DURING MORNING BECOMING LIGHT
AND VARIABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS.

FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TO START, OTHERWISE VFR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER LOWER CEILINGS MAY
DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ATLC WATERS. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. SEAS AND WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE
WEDNESDAY. COMPETING SOUTHERLY AND NORTHEAST SWELL GROUPS
OVERNIGHT SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST DOMINANT FOR A WHILE BEFORE THE
NORTHEAST COMPONENT WEAKENS DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WINDS OVERALL ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW 25 KNOTS, HOWEVER THE SEAS SHOULD BUILD TO
ABOUT 5 FEET ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ450>455.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270144
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
944 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THEN STALL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON BAY CANADA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BUILD DOWN INTO OUR
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE THOUGH IN THE OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY SLOWLY MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
930 PM ESTF: BASICALLY SCT SHOWERS SHOULD WITHDRAW SOUTHWARD ONTO
MAINLY THE DELMARVA OVERNIGHT WHERE HAVE A SLIGHT CHC OF TSTMS.
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED AND HOPEFULLY WE`RE CAUGHT UP. ALSO INCREASED
SKYCOVER AND HAVE PATCHY FOG IN THE FCST WHERE THE CROSSOVER TOOL
APPLIES. MID 30S IN THE POCS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE: INCREASED SKYCOVER TOMORROW WITH A BIT OF DELAYED
CLEARING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH.

THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DECELERATE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD
INTO SRN VA AND NC ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST PASSAGES WILL BUILD SEWD INTO THE
NORTHEAST STATES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS DRIER AIR WITH THIS
HIGH ADVECTING SOUTH INTO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NW NJ DURING THE
MORNING BUT STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS A RESULT OF THE WINDS ACROSS SE PA/S
NJ/DELMARVA REMAINING VEERED OUT OF THE NE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY FROM THE 12Z NAM,
INDICATE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE BOUNDARY
LAYER DUE TO ONSHORE FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. THE MARINE STRATOCU WILL
BE STUBBORN TO ERODE THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO. HIGHS RANGE FROM
THE MU50S IN THE DELMARVA AND COASTAL NJ TO LM60S IN E PA AND IN
C/NW NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE COMPRISED OF A STRONG CLOSED
LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THAT
THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS ALLOWS CYCLONIC FLOW TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR A TIME. THERE ARE SOME POCKETS OF ENERGY FORECAST TO
EVOLVE AROUND THIS LARGE TROUGH, ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK ALONG
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY THEN ANOTHER ONE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES,
MOSTLY ON THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT THE TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THROUGH SUNDAY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED
WELL TO OUR NORTH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND THROUGH FRIDAY,
THEN BLENDED IN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A POTENT CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
A STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE WITH ENERGY TRAVERSING
IT, WITH THE MAIN ENERGY BACK INTO THE PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TRIES TO BUILD DOWN INTO OUR AREA AT FIRST, HOWEVER A LEAD IMPULSE
WILL DRIVE WAA AND OVERRUNNING INTO OUR AREA DURING THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT AND ALSO
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS GIVEN POTENTIALLY MUCH
DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST CHCS FOR
SHOWERS IS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND THIS IS WHERE THE
HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY PLACED. GIVEN A NORTHEASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER, WE
ARE ANTICIPATING THURSDAY TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW FEATURE TO OUR SOUTH OVERALL
SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TO START FRIDAY. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY, STRONG AND EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL WEDGE DOWN
INTO OUR AREA ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND MUCH OF SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVERALL IN THE LOWER LEVELS, WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ALTHOUGH SOME MODERATION SHOULD OCCUR
SUNDAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE MIGRATING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL PUSH A WARM
FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY. SOME WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE EVOLUTION OF AN INITIAL CLOSED LOW WELL
TO OUR WEST, AS IT MAY OPEN UP INTO THE EAST, DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL DETERMINE OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A
FASTER EVOLUTION TO THIS FEATURE WHICH WOULD END ANY PRECIPITATION
CHCS SOONER. THE FLOW OVERALL LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE BLOCKY ENOUGH
TO RESULT IN A SLOWER EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SURFACE LOW, THEREFORE
WE FAVORED WPC GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS THE LOW ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY.
AS A RESULT, A POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED REGIME DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REST OF TONIGHT...IFR CIGS DEVELOPING MOST AREAS OVERNIGHT WITH
NE WIND.

WEDNESDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS TO START IMPROVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TO
CIGS BETWEEN 3000-4000 FT DURING MIDDAY OR THE AFTERNOON WITH A
N-NE WIND GUSTS UNDER 15 KT DURING MORNING BECOMING LIGHT AND
VARIABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS.

FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TO START, OTHERWISE VFR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER LOWER CEILINGS MAY
DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ATLC WATERS. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. SEAS AND WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE
WEDNESDAY. COMPETING SOUTHERLY AND NORTHEAST SWELL GROUPS OVERNIGHT
SHOULD BECOME NORTHEAST DOMINANT FOR A WHILE BEFORE THE NORTHEAST
COMPONENT WEAKENS DURING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WINDS OVERALL ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW 25 KNOTS, HOWEVER THE SEAS SHOULD BUILD
TO ABOUT 5 FEET ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 944
SHORT TERM...KLEIN/DRAG 944
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 944
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 944




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270004
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
804 PM EDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH OF OUR AREA THROUGH TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING AND THEN STALL. LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT
TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
HUDSON BAY CANADA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL BUILD DOWN INTO OUR
AREA THROUGH MUCH OF SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE THOUGH IN THE OHIO
VALLEY MONDAY SLOWLY MOVES CLOSER TO OUR AREA TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
8 PM: SVR TSTM WATCH CANCELLED DELMARVA. CLEANING UP REMAINDER
FCST NEXT 90 MIN.

630 PM ESTF: BASICALLY SINCE 4P HAVE BEEN TRIMMING WATCH, MONITORING
RADAR FOR SVR AND UPDATING TAFS. LAST GASP SHOWERS/ISO
THUNDERSTORM NOW MARCHING THROUGH PHL AND MORE WATCH TRIM BY 655P.
IF YOU HAVE ANY WIND DAMAGE REPORTS, PLS RELAY TO THE NWS. THANK
YOU. HAVE HAD A FEW GUSTS 45 TO 60 MPH AND A BUNCH OF SMALL HAIL
REPORTS. THE MESH HAS BEEN WORKING WELL. COOL FRONT AND BACKDOOR
MARITIME FRONT CONT TO EDGE SOUTH AND SHOWERS WILL ALSO DEVELOP
SOUTH BUT BE ON THE WANE MOST OF THE AREA AT SUNSET EXCEPT MAYBE
DELMARVA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO DECELERATE AS IT MOVES SOUTHWARD INTO
SRN VA AND NC ON WEDNESDAY. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR
THE CANADIAN NORTHWEST PASSAGES WILL BUILD SEWD INTO THE NORTHEAST
STATES. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SHOWS DRIER AIR WITH THIS HIGH ADVECTING
SOUTH INTO THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND NW NJ DURING THE MORNING BUT
STRUGGLE TO ADVANCE FARTHER TO THE SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.
THIS APPEARS A RESULT OF THE WINDS ACROSS SE PA/S NJ/DELMARVA
REMAINING VEERED OUT OF THE NE. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE SRN
HALF OF THE CWA, ESPECIALLY FROM THE 12Z NAM, INDICATE MOISTURE
WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE BOUNDARY LAYER DUE TO ONSHORE
FLOW OFF THE OCEAN. THE MARINE STRATOCU WILL BE STUBBORN TO ERODE
THE FARTHER SOUTH YOU GO. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE MU50S IN THE
DELMARVA AND COASTAL NJ TO LM60S IN E PA AND IN C/NW NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE COMPRISED OF A STRONG CLOSED
LOW NEAR THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY THAT
THEN SHIFTS EASTWARD. THIS ALLOWS CYCLONIC FLOW TO OCCUR ACROSS OUR
REGION FOR A TIME. THERE ARE SOME POCKETS OF ENERGY FORECAST TO
EVOLVE AROUND THIS LARGE TROUGH, ALLOWING LOW PRESSURE TO TRACK ALONG
A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH THURSDAY THEN ANOTHER ONE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME UNSETTLED WEATHER AT TIMES,
MOSTLY ON THURSDAY AND THEN AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE AMOUNT OF
PRECIPITATION AND CLOUD COVER WILL IMPACT THE TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY GIVEN THROUGH SUNDAY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE IS ANCHORED
WELL TO OUR NORTH. WE USED A MODEL/CONTINUITY BLEND THROUGH FRIDAY,
THEN BLENDED IN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS
WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR
NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...A POTENT CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR
THE CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL RESULT IN CYCLONIC FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.
A STALLED FRONT TO OUR SOUTH WILL CONTINUE WITH ENERGY TRAVERSING
IT, WITH THE MAIN ENERGY BACK INTO THE PLAINS. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
TRIES TO BUILD DOWN INTO OUR AREA AT FIRST, HOWEVER A LEAD IMPULSE
WILL DRIVE WAA AND OVERRUNNING INTO OUR AREA DURING THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON THE NORTHERN EXTENT AND ALSO
COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS GIVEN POTENTIALLY MUCH
DRIER AIR ADVECTING SOUTHWARD. LOOKS LIKE THE HIGHEST CHCS FOR
SHOWERS IS IN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA AND THIS IS WHERE THE
HIGHEST POPS ARE CURRENTLY PLACED. GIVEN A NORTHEASTERLY LOW-
LEVEL FLOW AND THE PROSPECTS FOR A DECENT AMOUNT OF CLOUD COVER, WE
ARE ANTICIPATING THURSDAY TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

FOR FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SURFACE LOW FEATURE TO OUR SOUTH OVERALL
SHOULD BE SHIFTING OFFSHORE TO START FRIDAY. AS ADDITIONAL ENERGY
AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE PLAINS INTO SUNDAY, STRONG AND EXPANSIVE HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CENTERED NEAR HUDSON BAY WILL WEDGE DOWN
INTO OUR AREA ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AND MUCH OF SUNDAY. THIS WILL
RESULT IN NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVERALL IN THE LOWER LEVELS, WITH COOL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING ALTHOUGH SOME MODERATION SHOULD OCCUR
SUNDAY AWAY FROM THE COAST. LOW PRESSURE MIGRATING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS TO THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WILL PUSH A WARM
FRONT TOWARD OUR AREA LATER SUNDAY. SOME WAA AND ISENTROPIC LIFT MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS ESPECIALLY LATE SUNDAY.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE EVOLUTION OF AN INITIAL CLOSED LOW WELL
TO OUR WEST, AS IT MAY OPEN UP INTO THE EAST, DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK
WILL DETERMINE OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. SOME GUIDANCE INDICATES A
FASTER EVOLUTION TO THIS FEATURE WHICH WOULD END ANY PRECIPITATION
CHCS SOONER. THE FLOW OVERALL LOOKS LIKE IT COULD BE BLOCKY ENOUGH
TO RESULT IN A SLOWER EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE SURFACE LOW, THEREFORE
WE FAVORED WPC GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS THE LOW ARRIVING DURING TUESDAY.
AS A RESULT, A POTENTIALLY UNSETTLED REGIME DURING THIS TIME
FRAME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...WIND SHIFT N-NE AND IFR OR MVFR CIGS DEVELOP SOUTHWESTWARD
EVEN AS THE SHOWERS QUIT IN A LINGERING MOIST N-NE FLOW. CURRENT
WLY GUSTY 25 KT WIND WILL SHIFT NE SOON AT KILG/KMIV. MAX NE GUSTS
AROUND 25 KT INITIALLY WILL DIMINISH DURING THE NIGHT.

WEDNESDAY...IFR AND MVFR CIGS TO START IMPROVE FROM N TO S TO
CIGS BETWEEN 3000-4000 FT DURING MIDDAY WITH A N-NE WIND GUSTS
UNDER 15 KT BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...POTENTIALLY LOWERING TO MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS.

FRIDAY...MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE TO START, OTHERWISE VFR.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER LOWER CEILINGS MAY
DEVELOP LATER SUNDAY WITH SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA ATLC WATERS. WAS TOO BUSY TO CANCEL THE MWW SCA AT 6P FOR DE
BAY. SEAS INCREASED A BIT THIS EVENING SO THAT 4 TO 7 FT LOOKS
GOOD OVERNIGHT. SEAS AND WINDS SLOWLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...THE WINDS OVERALL ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW 25 KNOTS, HOWEVER THE SEAS SHOULD BUILD
TO ABOUT 5 FEET ON THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND WITH AN ONSHORE FLOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ450>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG/KLEIN 804
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE/KLEIN 804
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE/KLEIN 804




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