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000
FXUS61 KPHI 300132
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
932 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MERGES WITH THE STRONGER WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK...FORCING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
TO BACK IN TOWARD THE COAST AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL DRY
AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

THE LIGHT WIND AND THE CLEARING SKY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SOME READINGS IN THE UPPER
40S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. WHILE RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED, WE SHOULD GET CLOSE. THE RECORDS
ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, LATE IN THE DAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND THERE ARE SOME WEAK
VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT MAY SWING THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT
AS WELL. THIS, COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE MAY HELP ENHANCE THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER TO OCCUR FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THIS
BEING SAID, WE EXPECT MOST OF THE FOCUSED ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH.

925/850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO WEDNESDAY, AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE EVER SO SLIGHTLY AS WELL. THEREFORE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. WE USED A
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925MB TEMP BLEND FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB: THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS
LATE THIS WEEK, THEN PROBABLY FLATTENS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER POSSIBLY WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW JULY TO AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT AT LEAST A DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL AT KACY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
THIS FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/29
NAM/GFS MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT... THE
12Z/29 GFS MOS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER
(SATURDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES
IS BLENDED 50 50 WITH THE 12Z/29 MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY
CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/29
SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY EVENING...CONTINUING THE PRIOR MID
SHIFT FORECAST. MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH
A PASSING SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIR MASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT
PUSHED THROUGH ON MONDAY. INTERIOR INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE MID
ATLC STATES APPEAR TO MAKE SHOWERS PROBABLE FOR EASTERN PA. IT
SHOULD BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER THERE DURING THE AFTN.

FRIDAY NIGHT - WEEKEND...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER TIMING
DETAILS WHICH WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THERE HAS TO BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...SOME BRIEFLY
HEAVY...WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS. THIS IN ASSN WITH A PAIR OF
SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE TROUGH. AGAIN...TIMING THE
PRIMARY PERIOD OF SHOWERS, IN MY OPINION, IS STILL AS OF THIS
WRITING...QUITE UNCERTAIN. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY COULD DIFFER 5
DEGREES EITHER WAY OF OUR CURRENT FCST...DEPENDING ON WHETHER ITS
RAINING BETWEEN 11AM AND 3 PM. I MAINTAINED OUR PRIOR MID SHIFT
FCST TEMPS FOR THIS DAY...NOT USING THE COOLER WPC GUIDANCE, NOR
THE MUCH WARMER GFS GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF IS EVEN COOLER THAN THE
WPC GUIDANCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...A SLIGHT DRYING WARMING TREND THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH A FEW MORE WEAK SHORTWAVES
SHEARING NEWD NEARBY OR OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY FROM 0400Z ONWARD.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF KABE THU AFTN.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS EXPECTED SOMETIME BETWEEN
FRIDAY AFTN AND MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NEXT WEEK: WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION
(FOR TWO DAYS OF FORECAST CYCLES, THOUGH TODAYS 12Z/29 RUN BACKED
OFF) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION HAS BEEN MUCH MORE
CONSERVATIVE. WE COULD BE SEEING A 1 FOOT 15 SECOND SWELL ARRIVE
ALONG OUR SHORES NEXT MONDAY... MAYBE INCREASE TO A 2 FOOT 13
SECOND SE SWELL NEXT TUESDAY...AGAIN...IF A TROPICAL SYSTEM OCCURS
AS OUTLOOKED TODAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A COOL TO EVEN LOCALLY CHILLY OVERNIGHT IS ANTICIPATED. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BEING APPROACHED WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT RECORD
TYING OR SETTING. THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 30TH ARE
LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.

PHILADELPHIA, PA....58 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1914.
WILMINGTON, DE......55 DEGREES SET IN 1956.
ALLENTOWN, PA.......50 DEGREES SET IN 1997 AND 1968.
READING, PA.........52 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
ATLANTIC CITY, NJ...53 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1968.
TRENTON, NJ.........54 DEGREES SET IN 1997.
GEORGETOWN, DE......54 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
MOUNT POCONO, PA....42 DEGREES SET IN 1968.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GORSE






000
FXUS61 KPHI 300132
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
932 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MERGES WITH THE STRONGER WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK...FORCING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
TO BACK IN TOWARD THE COAST AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS ADDITIONAL DRY
AIR BUILDS INTO OUR REGION.

THE LIGHT WIND AND THE CLEARING SKY SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE 50S AT MOST LOCATIONS. SOME READINGS IN THE UPPER
40S ARE POSSIBLE IN THE ELEVATED TERRAIN. WHILE RECORD LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT EXPECTED, WE SHOULD GET CLOSE. THE RECORDS
ARE LISTED IN THE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, LATE IN THE DAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND THERE ARE SOME WEAK
VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT MAY SWING THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT
AS WELL. THIS, COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE MAY HELP ENHANCE THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER TO OCCUR FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THIS
BEING SAID, WE EXPECT MOST OF THE FOCUSED ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO
OUR NORTH.

925/850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO WEDNESDAY, AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE EVER SO SLIGHTLY AS WELL. THEREFORE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. WE USED A
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925MB TEMP BLEND FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB: THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS
LATE THIS WEEK, THEN PROBABLY FLATTENS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER POSSIBLY WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW JULY TO AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT AT LEAST A DEGREE BELOW
NORMAL AT KACY.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
THIS FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/29
NAM/GFS MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT... THE
12Z/29 GFS MOS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER
(SATURDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES
IS BLENDED 50 50 WITH THE 12Z/29 MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY
CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE
PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/29
SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE
12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY EVENING...CONTINUING THE PRIOR MID
SHIFT FORECAST. MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE THE
POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH
A PASSING SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIR MASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT
PUSHED THROUGH ON MONDAY. INTERIOR INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR
ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE MID
ATLC STATES APPEAR TO MAKE SHOWERS PROBABLE FOR EASTERN PA. IT
SHOULD BE UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER THERE DURING THE AFTN.

FRIDAY NIGHT - WEEKEND...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER TIMING
DETAILS WHICH WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BUT IT APPEARS
THAT THERE HAS TO BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...SOME BRIEFLY
HEAVY...WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS. THIS IN ASSN WITH A PAIR OF
SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE TROUGH. AGAIN...TIMING THE
PRIMARY PERIOD OF SHOWERS, IN MY OPINION, IS STILL AS OF THIS
WRITING...QUITE UNCERTAIN. MAX TEMPS SATURDAY COULD DIFFER 5
DEGREES EITHER WAY OF OUR CURRENT FCST...DEPENDING ON WHETHER ITS
RAINING BETWEEN 11AM AND 3 PM. I MAINTAINED OUR PRIOR MID SHIFT
FCST TEMPS FOR THIS DAY...NOT USING THE COOLER WPC GUIDANCE, NOR
THE MUCH WARMER GFS GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF IS EVEN COOLER THAN THE
WPC GUIDANCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...A SLIGHT DRYING WARMING TREND THOUGH NOT
ENTIRELY VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH A FEW MORE WEAK SHORTWAVES
SHEARING NEWD NEARBY OR OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH MAINLY
SCATTERED CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY FROM 0400Z ONWARD.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND IS ANTICIPATED OVERNIGHT WITH A LIGHT
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF KABE THU AFTN.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS IN
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS EXPECTED SOMETIME BETWEEN
FRIDAY AFTN AND MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NEXT WEEK: WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION
(FOR TWO DAYS OF FORECAST CYCLES, THOUGH TODAYS 12Z/29 RUN BACKED
OFF) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION HAS BEEN MUCH MORE
CONSERVATIVE. WE COULD BE SEEING A 1 FOOT 15 SECOND SWELL ARRIVE
ALONG OUR SHORES NEXT MONDAY... MAYBE INCREASE TO A 2 FOOT 13
SECOND SE SWELL NEXT TUESDAY...AGAIN...IF A TROPICAL SYSTEM OCCURS
AS OUTLOOKED TODAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A COOL TO EVEN LOCALLY CHILLY OVERNIGHT IS ANTICIPATED. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BEING APPROACHED WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT RECORD
TYING OR SETTING. THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 30TH ARE
LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.

PHILADELPHIA, PA....58 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1914.
WILMINGTON, DE......55 DEGREES SET IN 1956.
ALLENTOWN, PA.......50 DEGREES SET IN 1997 AND 1968.
READING, PA.........52 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
ATLANTIC CITY, NJ...53 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1968.
TRENTON, NJ.........54 DEGREES SET IN 1997.
GEORGETOWN, DE......54 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
MOUNT POCONO, PA....42 DEGREES SET IN 1968.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GORSE







000
FXUS61 KPHI 300005
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MERGES WITH THE STRONGER WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK...FORCING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
TO BACK IN TOWARD THE COAST AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
PW VALUES ARE LOW ENOUGH, BELOW ONE INCH, THAT ANY VORTICITY
IMPULSES TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CREATE ANY PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOW TEMPERATURES GETTING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF RECORD LOWS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL SITES. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST AND HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
LASTS LONGER INTO THE NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE LESS TIME FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS. IF WE
BREAK OUT FASTER, MUCH MORE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. FOR NOW, WE
STAY CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, LATE IN THE DAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND THERE ARE SOME WEAK VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT MAY SWING THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT AS WELL.
THIS, COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE MAY HELP ENHANCE THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER TO OCCUR FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THIS
BEING SAID, WE EXPECT MOST OF THE FOCUSED ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH.

925/850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO WEDNESDAY, AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE EVER SO SLIGHTLY AS WELL. THEREFORE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. WE USED A
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925MB TEMP BLEND FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB: THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS LATE
THIS WEEK, THEN PROBABLY FLATTENS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER POSSIBLY WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW JULY TO AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT AT LEAST A DEGREE BELOW NORMAL
AT KACY.

FORECAST BASIS:  UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/29 GFS
MOS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (SATURDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 12Z/29 MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/29 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY EVENING...CONTINUING THE PRIOR MID SHIFT
FORECAST. MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. INTERIOR INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES APPEAR
TO MAKE SHOWERS PROBABLE FOR EASTERN PA. IT SHOULD BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR THUNDER THERE DURING THE AFTN.


FRIDAY NIGHT - WEEKEND...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER TIMING DETAILS
WHICH WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE HAS
TO BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY...WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
TSTMS. THIS IN ASSN WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH
THE TROUGH. AGAIN...TIMING THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF SHOWERS, IN MY
OPINION, IS STILL AS OF THIS WRITING...QUITE UNCERTAIN. MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY COULD DIFFER 5 DEGREES EITHER WAY OF OUR CURRENT FCST...DEPENDING
ON WHETHER ITS RAINING BETWEEN 11AM AND 3 PM. I MAINTAINED OUR
PRIOR MID SHIFT FCST TEMPS FOR THIS DAY...NOT USING THE COOLER WPC
GUIDANCE, NOR THE MUCH WARMER GFS GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF IS EVEN COOLER
THAN THE WPC GUIDANCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...A SLIGHT DRYING WARMING TREND THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH A FEW MORE WEAK SHORTWAVES SHEARING NEWD
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEST-TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM OVERNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF KABE THU AFTN.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS EXPECTED SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTN AND
MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NEXT WEEK: WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION
(FOR TWO DAYS OF FORECAST CYCLES, THOUGH TODAYS 12Z/29 RUN BACKED
OFF) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE.
WE COULD BE SEEING A 1 FOOT 15 SECOND SWELL ARRIVE ALONG OUR SHORES
NEXT MONDAY... MAYBE INCREASE TO A 2 FOOT 13 SECOND SE SWELL NEXT
TUESDAY...AGAIN...IF A TROPICAL SYSTEM OCCURS AS OUTLOOKED TODAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A COOL TO EVEN LOCALLY CHILLY OVERNIGHT IS ANTICIPATED. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BEING APPROACHED WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT RECORD
TYING OR SETTING. THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 30TH ARE
LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.

PHILADELPHIA, PA....58 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1914.
WILMINGTON, DE......55 DEGREES SET IN 1956.
ALLENTOWN, PA.......50 DEGREES SET IN 1997 AND 1968.
READING, PA.........52 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
ATLANTIC CITY, NJ...53 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1968.
TRENTON, NJ.........54 DEGREES SET IN 1997.
GEORGETOWN, DE......54 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
MOUNT POCONO, PA....42 DEGREES SET IN 1968.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GORSE/BUNKER




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300005
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MERGES WITH THE STRONGER WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK...FORCING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
TO BACK IN TOWARD THE COAST AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
PW VALUES ARE LOW ENOUGH, BELOW ONE INCH, THAT ANY VORTICITY
IMPULSES TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CREATE ANY PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOW TEMPERATURES GETTING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF RECORD LOWS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL SITES. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST AND HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
LASTS LONGER INTO THE NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE LESS TIME FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS. IF WE
BREAK OUT FASTER, MUCH MORE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. FOR NOW, WE
STAY CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, LATE IN THE DAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND THERE ARE SOME WEAK VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT MAY SWING THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT AS WELL.
THIS, COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE MAY HELP ENHANCE THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER TO OCCUR FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THIS
BEING SAID, WE EXPECT MOST OF THE FOCUSED ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH.

925/850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO WEDNESDAY, AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE EVER SO SLIGHTLY AS WELL. THEREFORE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. WE USED A
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925MB TEMP BLEND FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB: THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS LATE
THIS WEEK, THEN PROBABLY FLATTENS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER POSSIBLY WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW JULY TO AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT AT LEAST A DEGREE BELOW NORMAL
AT KACY.

FORECAST BASIS:  UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/29 GFS
MOS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (SATURDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 12Z/29 MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/29 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY EVENING...CONTINUING THE PRIOR MID SHIFT
FORECAST. MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. INTERIOR INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES APPEAR
TO MAKE SHOWERS PROBABLE FOR EASTERN PA. IT SHOULD BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR THUNDER THERE DURING THE AFTN.


FRIDAY NIGHT - WEEKEND...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER TIMING DETAILS
WHICH WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE HAS
TO BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY...WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
TSTMS. THIS IN ASSN WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH
THE TROUGH. AGAIN...TIMING THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF SHOWERS, IN MY
OPINION, IS STILL AS OF THIS WRITING...QUITE UNCERTAIN. MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY COULD DIFFER 5 DEGREES EITHER WAY OF OUR CURRENT FCST...DEPENDING
ON WHETHER ITS RAINING BETWEEN 11AM AND 3 PM. I MAINTAINED OUR
PRIOR MID SHIFT FCST TEMPS FOR THIS DAY...NOT USING THE COOLER WPC
GUIDANCE, NOR THE MUCH WARMER GFS GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF IS EVEN COOLER
THAN THE WPC GUIDANCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...A SLIGHT DRYING WARMING TREND THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH A FEW MORE WEAK SHORTWAVES SHEARING NEWD
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEST-TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM OVERNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF KABE THU AFTN.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS EXPECTED SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTN AND
MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NEXT WEEK: WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION
(FOR TWO DAYS OF FORECAST CYCLES, THOUGH TODAYS 12Z/29 RUN BACKED
OFF) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE.
WE COULD BE SEEING A 1 FOOT 15 SECOND SWELL ARRIVE ALONG OUR SHORES
NEXT MONDAY... MAYBE INCREASE TO A 2 FOOT 13 SECOND SE SWELL NEXT
TUESDAY...AGAIN...IF A TROPICAL SYSTEM OCCURS AS OUTLOOKED TODAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A COOL TO EVEN LOCALLY CHILLY OVERNIGHT IS ANTICIPATED. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BEING APPROACHED WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT RECORD
TYING OR SETTING. THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 30TH ARE
LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.

PHILADELPHIA, PA....58 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1914.
WILMINGTON, DE......55 DEGREES SET IN 1956.
ALLENTOWN, PA.......50 DEGREES SET IN 1997 AND 1968.
READING, PA.........52 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
ATLANTIC CITY, NJ...53 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1968.
TRENTON, NJ.........54 DEGREES SET IN 1997.
GEORGETOWN, DE......54 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
MOUNT POCONO, PA....42 DEGREES SET IN 1968.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GORSE/BUNKER




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300005
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MERGES WITH THE STRONGER WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK...FORCING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
TO BACK IN TOWARD THE COAST AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
PW VALUES ARE LOW ENOUGH, BELOW ONE INCH, THAT ANY VORTICITY
IMPULSES TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CREATE ANY PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOW TEMPERATURES GETTING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF RECORD LOWS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL SITES. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST AND HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
LASTS LONGER INTO THE NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE LESS TIME FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS. IF WE
BREAK OUT FASTER, MUCH MORE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. FOR NOW, WE
STAY CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, LATE IN THE DAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND THERE ARE SOME WEAK VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT MAY SWING THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT AS WELL.
THIS, COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE MAY HELP ENHANCE THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER TO OCCUR FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THIS
BEING SAID, WE EXPECT MOST OF THE FOCUSED ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH.

925/850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO WEDNESDAY, AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE EVER SO SLIGHTLY AS WELL. THEREFORE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. WE USED A
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925MB TEMP BLEND FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB: THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS LATE
THIS WEEK, THEN PROBABLY FLATTENS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER POSSIBLY WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW JULY TO AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT AT LEAST A DEGREE BELOW NORMAL
AT KACY.

FORECAST BASIS:  UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/29 GFS
MOS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (SATURDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 12Z/29 MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/29 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY EVENING...CONTINUING THE PRIOR MID SHIFT
FORECAST. MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. INTERIOR INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES APPEAR
TO MAKE SHOWERS PROBABLE FOR EASTERN PA. IT SHOULD BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR THUNDER THERE DURING THE AFTN.


FRIDAY NIGHT - WEEKEND...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER TIMING DETAILS
WHICH WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE HAS
TO BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY...WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
TSTMS. THIS IN ASSN WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH
THE TROUGH. AGAIN...TIMING THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF SHOWERS, IN MY
OPINION, IS STILL AS OF THIS WRITING...QUITE UNCERTAIN. MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY COULD DIFFER 5 DEGREES EITHER WAY OF OUR CURRENT FCST...DEPENDING
ON WHETHER ITS RAINING BETWEEN 11AM AND 3 PM. I MAINTAINED OUR
PRIOR MID SHIFT FCST TEMPS FOR THIS DAY...NOT USING THE COOLER WPC
GUIDANCE, NOR THE MUCH WARMER GFS GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF IS EVEN COOLER
THAN THE WPC GUIDANCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...A SLIGHT DRYING WARMING TREND THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH A FEW MORE WEAK SHORTWAVES SHEARING NEWD
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEST-TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM OVERNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF KABE THU AFTN.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS EXPECTED SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTN AND
MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NEXT WEEK: WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION
(FOR TWO DAYS OF FORECAST CYCLES, THOUGH TODAYS 12Z/29 RUN BACKED
OFF) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE.
WE COULD BE SEEING A 1 FOOT 15 SECOND SWELL ARRIVE ALONG OUR SHORES
NEXT MONDAY... MAYBE INCREASE TO A 2 FOOT 13 SECOND SE SWELL NEXT
TUESDAY...AGAIN...IF A TROPICAL SYSTEM OCCURS AS OUTLOOKED TODAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A COOL TO EVEN LOCALLY CHILLY OVERNIGHT IS ANTICIPATED. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BEING APPROACHED WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT RECORD
TYING OR SETTING. THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 30TH ARE
LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.

PHILADELPHIA, PA....58 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1914.
WILMINGTON, DE......55 DEGREES SET IN 1956.
ALLENTOWN, PA.......50 DEGREES SET IN 1997 AND 1968.
READING, PA.........52 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
ATLANTIC CITY, NJ...53 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1968.
TRENTON, NJ.........54 DEGREES SET IN 1997.
GEORGETOWN, DE......54 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
MOUNT POCONO, PA....42 DEGREES SET IN 1968.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GORSE/BUNKER




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300005
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
805 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MERGES WITH THE STRONGER WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK...FORCING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
TO BACK IN TOWARD THE COAST AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
PW VALUES ARE LOW ENOUGH, BELOW ONE INCH, THAT ANY VORTICITY
IMPULSES TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CREATE ANY PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOW TEMPERATURES GETTING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF RECORD LOWS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL SITES. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST AND HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
LASTS LONGER INTO THE NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE LESS TIME FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS. IF WE
BREAK OUT FASTER, MUCH MORE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. FOR NOW, WE
STAY CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, LATE IN THE DAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND THERE ARE SOME WEAK VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT MAY SWING THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT AS WELL.
THIS, COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE MAY HELP ENHANCE THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER TO OCCUR FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THIS
BEING SAID, WE EXPECT MOST OF THE FOCUSED ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH.

925/850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO WEDNESDAY, AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE EVER SO SLIGHTLY AS WELL. THEREFORE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. WE USED A
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925MB TEMP BLEND FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB: THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS LATE
THIS WEEK, THEN PROBABLY FLATTENS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER POSSIBLY WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW JULY TO AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT AT LEAST A DEGREE BELOW NORMAL
AT KACY.

FORECAST BASIS:  UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/29 GFS
MOS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (SATURDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 12Z/29 MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/29 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY EVENING...CONTINUING THE PRIOR MID SHIFT
FORECAST. MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. INTERIOR INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES APPEAR
TO MAKE SHOWERS PROBABLE FOR EASTERN PA. IT SHOULD BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR THUNDER THERE DURING THE AFTN.


FRIDAY NIGHT - WEEKEND...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER TIMING DETAILS
WHICH WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE HAS
TO BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY...WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
TSTMS. THIS IN ASSN WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH
THE TROUGH. AGAIN...TIMING THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF SHOWERS, IN MY
OPINION, IS STILL AS OF THIS WRITING...QUITE UNCERTAIN. MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY COULD DIFFER 5 DEGREES EITHER WAY OF OUR CURRENT FCST...DEPENDING
ON WHETHER ITS RAINING BETWEEN 11AM AND 3 PM. I MAINTAINED OUR
PRIOR MID SHIFT FCST TEMPS FOR THIS DAY...NOT USING THE COOLER WPC
GUIDANCE, NOR THE MUCH WARMER GFS GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF IS EVEN COOLER
THAN THE WPC GUIDANCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...A SLIGHT DRYING WARMING TREND THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH A FEW MORE WEAK SHORTWAVES SHEARING NEWD
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEST-TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM OVERNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF KABE THU AFTN.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS EXPECTED SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTN AND
MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NEXT WEEK: WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION
(FOR TWO DAYS OF FORECAST CYCLES, THOUGH TODAYS 12Z/29 RUN BACKED
OFF) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE.
WE COULD BE SEEING A 1 FOOT 15 SECOND SWELL ARRIVE ALONG OUR SHORES
NEXT MONDAY... MAYBE INCREASE TO A 2 FOOT 13 SECOND SE SWELL NEXT
TUESDAY...AGAIN...IF A TROPICAL SYSTEM OCCURS AS OUTLOOKED TODAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A COOL TO EVEN LOCALLY CHILLY OVERNIGHT IS ANTICIPATED. THIS MAY
RESULT IN SOME RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES BEING APPROACHED WEDNESDAY
MORNING. AS OF NOW, THE FORECAST LOW TEMPERATURES ARE NOT RECORD
TYING OR SETTING. THE RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES FOR JULY 30TH ARE
LISTED BELOW FOR REFERENCE.

PHILADELPHIA, PA....58 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1914.
WILMINGTON, DE......55 DEGREES SET IN 1956.
ALLENTOWN, PA.......50 DEGREES SET IN 1997 AND 1968.
READING, PA.........52 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
ATLANTIC CITY, NJ...53 DEGREES SET IN 1981 AND 1968.
TRENTON, NJ.........54 DEGREES SET IN 1997.
GEORGETOWN, DE......54 DEGREES SET IN 1981.
MOUNT POCONO, PA....42 DEGREES SET IN 1968.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON
CLIMATE...GORSE/BUNKER




000
FXUS61 KPHI 292008
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
408 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MERGES WITH THE STRONGER WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK...FORCING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
TO BACK IN TOWARD THE COAST AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
PW VALUES ARE LOW ENOUGH, BELOW ONE INCH, THAT ANY VORTICITY
IMPULSES TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CREATE ANY PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOW TEMPERATURES GETTING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF RECORD LOWS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL SITES. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST AND HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
LASTS LONGER INTO THE NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE LESS TIME FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS. IF WE
BREAK OUT FASTER, MUCH MORE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. FOR NOW, WE
STAY CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE BLEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, LATE IN THE DAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND THERE ARE SOME WEAK VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT MAY SWING THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT AS WELL.
THIS, COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE MAY HELP ENHANCE THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER TO OCCUR FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THIS
BEING SAID, WE EXPECT MOST OF THE FOCUSED ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH.

925/850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO WEDNESDAY, AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE EVER SO SLIGHTLY AS WELL. THEREFORE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. WE USED A
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925MB TEMP BLEND FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB: THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS LATE
THIS WEEK, THEN PROBABLY FLATTENS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER POSSIBLY WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW JULY TO AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT AT LEAST A DEGREE BELOW NORMAL
AT KACY.

FORECAST BASIS:  UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/29 GFS
MOS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (SATURDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 12Z/29 MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/29 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY EVENING...CONTINUING THE PRIOR MID SHIFT
FORECAST. MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. INTERIOR INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES APPEAR
TO MAKE SHOWERS PROBABLE FOR EASTERN PA. IT SHOULD BE UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR THUNDER THERE DURING THE AFTN.


FRIDAY NIGHT - WEEKEND...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER TIMING DETAILS
WHICH WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE HAS
TO BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY...WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
TSTMS. THIS IN ASSN WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH
THE TROUGH. AGAIN...TIMING THE PRIMARY PERIOD OF SHOWERS, IN MY
OPINION, IS STILL AS OF THIS WRITING...QUITE UNCERTAIN. MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY COULD DIFFER 5 DEGREES EITHER WAY OF OUR CURRENT FCST...DEPENDING
ON WHETHER ITS RAINING BETWEEN 11AM AND 3 PM. I MAINTAINED OUR
PRIOR MID SHIFT FCST TEMPS FOR THIS DAY...NOT USING THE COOLER WPC
GUIDANCE, NOR THE MUCH WARMER GFS GUIDANCE. THE ECMWF IS EVEN COOLER
THAN THE WPC GUIDANCE.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...A SLIGHT DRYING WARMING TREND THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH A FEW MORE WEAK SHORTWAVES SHEARING NEWD
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEST-TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM OVERNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF KABE THU AFTN.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS EXPECTED SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTN AND
MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NEXT WEEK: WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION
(FOR TWO DAYS OF FORECAST CYCLES, THOUGH TODAYS 12Z/29 RUN BACKED
OFF) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE.
WE COULD BE SEEING A 1 FOOT 15 SECOND SWELL ARRIVE ALONG OUR SHORES
NEXT MONDAY... MAYBE INCREASE TO A 2 FOOT 13 SECOND SE SWELL NEXT
TUESDAY...AGAIN...IF A TROPICAL SYSTEM OCCURS AS OUTLOOKED TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG 408
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 408
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 408






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291949
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MERGES WITH THE STRONGER WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK...FORCING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
TO BACK IN TOWARD THE COAST AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
PW VALUES ARE LOW ENOUGH, BELOW ONE INCH, THAT ANY VORTICITY
IMPULSES TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CREATE ANY PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOW TEMPERATURES GETTING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF RECORD LOWS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL SITES. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST AND HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
LASTS LONGER INTO THE NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE LESS TIME FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS. IF WE
BREAK OUT FASTER, MUCH MORE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. FOR NOW, WE
STAY CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, LATE IN THE DAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND THERE ARE SOME WEAK VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT MAY SWING THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT AS WELL.
THIS, COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE MAY HELP ENHANCE THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER TO OCCUR FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THIS
BEING SAID, WE EXPECT MOST OF THE FOCUSED ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH.

925/850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO WEDNESDAY, AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE EVER SO SLIGHTLY AS WELL. THEREFORE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. WE USED A
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925MB TEMP BLEND FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB: THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS LATE
THIS WEEK, THEN PROBABLY FLATTENS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER POSSIBLY WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW JULY TO AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT AT LEAST A DEGREE BELOW NORMAL
AT KACY.

FORECAST BASIS:  UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/29 GFS
MOS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (SATURDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 12Z/29 MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/29 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY EVENING...CONTINUING THE PRIOR MID SHIFT
FORECAST. MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. INTERIOR INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD FROM THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES APPEAR
TO MAKE SHOWERS PROBABLE FOR E PA. UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER DURING
THE AFTN.


FRIDAY NIGHT - WEEKEND...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER TIMING DETAILS
WHICH WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE HAS
TO BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY...WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
TSTMS. THIS IN ASSN WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH
THE TROUGH.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...A SLIGHT DRYING WARMING TREND THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH A FEW MORE WEAK SHORTWAVES SHEARING NEWD
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEST-TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM OVERNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF ABE THU AFTN.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS EXPECTED SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTN AND
MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NEXT WEEK: WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION
(FOR TWO DAYS OF FORECAST CYCLES THOUGH TODAYS 12Z/29 RUN BACKED
OFF) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE.
WE COULD BE SEEING A 1 FOOT 15 SECOND SWELL ARRIVE ALONG OUR SHORES
NEXT MONDAY... MAYBE GO TO A 2 FOOT 13 SECOND SE SWELL NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG  349
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON 349
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON 349
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 349
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 349






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291949
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MERGES WITH THE STRONGER WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK...FORCING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
TO BACK IN TOWARD THE COAST AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
PW VALUES ARE LOW ENOUGH, BELOW ONE INCH, THAT ANY VORTICITY
IMPULSES TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CREATE ANY PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOW TEMPERATURES GETTING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF RECORD LOWS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL SITES. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST AND HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
LASTS LONGER INTO THE NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE LESS TIME FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS. IF WE
BREAK OUT FASTER, MUCH MORE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. FOR NOW, WE
STAY CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, LATE IN THE DAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND THERE ARE SOME WEAK VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT MAY SWING THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT AS WELL.
THIS, COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE MAY HELP ENHANCE THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER TO OCCUR FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THIS
BEING SAID, WE EXPECT MOST OF THE FOCUSED ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH.

925/850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO WEDNESDAY, AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE EVER SO SLIGHTLY AS WELL. THEREFORE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. WE USED A
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925MB TEMP BLEND FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB: THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS LATE
THIS WEEK, THEN PROBABLY FLATTENS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER POSSIBLY WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW JULY TO AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT AT LEAST A DEGREE BELOW NORMAL
AT KACY.

FORECAST BASIS:  UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/29 GFS
MOS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (SATURDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 12Z/29 MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/29 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY EVENING...CONTINUING THE PRIOR MID SHIFT
FORECAST. MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. INTERIOR INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD FROM THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES APPEAR
TO MAKE SHOWERS PROBABLE FOR E PA. UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER DURING
THE AFTN.


FRIDAY NIGHT - WEEKEND...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER TIMING DETAILS
WHICH WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE HAS
TO BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY...WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
TSTMS. THIS IN ASSN WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH
THE TROUGH.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...A SLIGHT DRYING WARMING TREND THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH A FEW MORE WEAK SHORTWAVES SHEARING NEWD
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEST-TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM OVERNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF ABE THU AFTN.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS EXPECTED SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTN AND
MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NEXT WEEK: WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION
(FOR TWO DAYS OF FORECAST CYCLES THOUGH TODAYS 12Z/29 RUN BACKED
OFF) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE.
WE COULD BE SEEING A 1 FOOT 15 SECOND SWELL ARRIVE ALONG OUR SHORES
NEXT MONDAY... MAYBE GO TO A 2 FOOT 13 SECOND SE SWELL NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG  349
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON 349
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON 349
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 349
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 349






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291949
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MERGES WITH THE STRONGER WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK...FORCING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
TO BACK IN TOWARD THE COAST AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
PW VALUES ARE LOW ENOUGH, BELOW ONE INCH, THAT ANY VORTICITY
IMPULSES TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CREATE ANY PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOW TEMPERATURES GETTING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF RECORD LOWS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL SITES. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST AND HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
LASTS LONGER INTO THE NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE LESS TIME FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS. IF WE
BREAK OUT FASTER, MUCH MORE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. FOR NOW, WE
STAY CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, LATE IN THE DAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND THERE ARE SOME WEAK VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT MAY SWING THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT AS WELL.
THIS, COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE MAY HELP ENHANCE THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER TO OCCUR FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THIS
BEING SAID, WE EXPECT MOST OF THE FOCUSED ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH.

925/850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO WEDNESDAY, AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE EVER SO SLIGHTLY AS WELL. THEREFORE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. WE USED A
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925MB TEMP BLEND FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB: THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS LATE
THIS WEEK, THEN PROBABLY FLATTENS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER POSSIBLY WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW JULY TO AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT AT LEAST A DEGREE BELOW NORMAL
AT KACY.

FORECAST BASIS:  UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/29 GFS
MOS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (SATURDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 12Z/29 MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/29 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY EVENING...CONTINUING THE PRIOR MID SHIFT
FORECAST. MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. INTERIOR INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD FROM THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES APPEAR
TO MAKE SHOWERS PROBABLE FOR E PA. UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER DURING
THE AFTN.


FRIDAY NIGHT - WEEKEND...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER TIMING DETAILS
WHICH WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE HAS
TO BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY...WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
TSTMS. THIS IN ASSN WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH
THE TROUGH.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...A SLIGHT DRYING WARMING TREND THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH A FEW MORE WEAK SHORTWAVES SHEARING NEWD
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEST-TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM OVERNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF ABE THU AFTN.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS EXPECTED SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTN AND
MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NEXT WEEK: WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION
(FOR TWO DAYS OF FORECAST CYCLES THOUGH TODAYS 12Z/29 RUN BACKED
OFF) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE.
WE COULD BE SEEING A 1 FOOT 15 SECOND SWELL ARRIVE ALONG OUR SHORES
NEXT MONDAY... MAYBE GO TO A 2 FOOT 13 SECOND SE SWELL NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG  349
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON 349
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON 349
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 349
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 349






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291949
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
349 PM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA MERGES WITH THE STRONGER WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE LATE THIS WEEK...FORCING THE OFFSHORE FRONT
TO BACK IN TOWARD THE COAST AS A WARM FRONT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
QUIET WEATHER TONIGHT AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.
PW VALUES ARE LOW ENOUGH, BELOW ONE INCH, THAT ANY VORTICITY
IMPULSES TONIGHT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO CREATE ANY PRECIPITATION.

THE MAIN FOCUS FOR TONIGHT WILL BE THE LOW TEMPERATURE FORECAST.
MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING LOW TEMPERATURES GETTING WITHIN A
COUPLE OF DEGREES OF RECORD LOWS FOR VIRTUALLY ALL SITES. THE BIG
QUESTION WILL BE HOW FAST AND HOW MUCH CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATER
THIS EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IF THE CURRENT CLOUD COVER
LASTS LONGER INTO THE NIGHT, WE`LL HAVE LESS TIME FOR GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING EVEN WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM WINDS. IF WE
BREAK OUT FASTER, MUCH MORE COOLING WILL TAKE PLACE. FOR NOW, WE
STAY CLOSE TO MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE BLEND.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE
DAY WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER, LATE IN THE DAY, A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH MAY
DEVELOP ACROSS OUR WESTERN ZONES, AND THERE ARE SOME WEAK VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT MAY SWING THROUGH THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT AS WELL.
THIS, COMBINED WITH SOME MOISTURE MAY HELP ENHANCE THE
SHOWER/THUNDERSHOWER POTENTIAL LATE IN THE DAY. THERE IS NOT MUCH
INSTABILITY ACROSS OUR AREA, BUT THERE MAY BE JUST ENOUGH FOR AN
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWER TO OCCUR FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN AREAS. THIS
BEING SAID, WE EXPECT MOST OF THE FOCUSED ACTIVITY TO REMAIN TO OUR
NORTH.

925/850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE A DEGREE OR TWO WEDNESDAY, AND
THICKNESSES INCREASE EVER SO SLIGHTLY AS WELL. THEREFORE HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TUESDAY. WE USED A
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925MB TEMP BLEND FOR HIGHS ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
500 MB: THE LARGE TROUGH IN THE EASTERN UNITED STATES WEAKENS LATE
THIS WEEK, THEN PROBABLY FLATTENS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY AVERAGES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL
THURSDAY THEN NEAR NORMAL THEREAFTER POSSIBLY WARMING ABOVE NORMAL
EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW JULY TO AVERAGE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL AT MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT AT LEAST A DEGREE BELOW NORMAL
AT KACY.

FORECAST BASIS:  UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/29 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/29 GFS
MOS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (SATURDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/29 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE WHICH AT TIMES IS BLENDED 50 50
WITH THE 12Z/29 MEXMOS. ALL THIS IS EVENTUALLY CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/29 ECMWF TO SEE IF WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE IS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/29 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05

THE DAILIES...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY EVENING...CONTINUING THE PRIOR MID SHIFT
FORECAST. MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE REGION OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A PASSING
SHORTWAVE MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. INTERIOR INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR ADVECTION ASSOCIATED
WITH SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD FROM THROUGH THE MID ATLC STATES APPEAR
TO MAKE SHOWERS PROBABLE FOR E PA. UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR THUNDER DURING
THE AFTN.


FRIDAY NIGHT - WEEKEND...STILL UNCERTAINTY IN SHOWER TIMING DETAILS
WHICH WILL AFFECT MAX TEMPS THIS WEEKEND BUT IT APPEARS THAT THERE HAS
TO BE A PERIOD OF SHOWERS...SOME BRIEFLY HEAVY...WITH ISOLATED EMBEDDED
TSTMS. THIS IN ASSN WITH A PAIR OF SHORT WAVES MOVING NEWD THROUGH
THE TROUGH.

MONDAY - TUESDAY...A SLIGHT DRYING WARMING TREND THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH A FEW MORE WEAK SHORTWAVES SHEARING NEWD
NEARBY OR OVERHEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
WEST-TO NORTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WILL BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM OVERNIGHT, BEFORE INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST
TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY NIGHT - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF ABE THU AFTN.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY - SUNDAY...MOSTLY VFR CIGS. IFR CONDITIONS IN SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED EMBEDDED TSTMS EXPECTED SOMETIME BETWEEN FRIDAY AFTN AND
MIDDAY SATURDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS WINDS
REMAIN 10-15 KNOTS OR LESS AND SEAS REMAIN 2-3 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SHOWERS
AND TSTMS SHOULD OCCUR SOMETIME LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.

NEXT WEEK: WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION
(FOR TWO DAYS OF FORECAST CYCLES THOUGH TODAYS 12Z/29 RUN BACKED
OFF) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION HAS BEEN MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE.
WE COULD BE SEEING A 1 FOOT 15 SECOND SWELL ARRIVE ALONG OUR SHORES
NEXT MONDAY... MAYBE GO TO A 2 FOOT 13 SECOND SE SWELL NEXT TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG  349
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON 349
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON 349
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 349
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 349






000
FXUS61 KPHI 291327
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT FURTHER OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE MERGES WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE OLD COLD FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST
OFF THE COAST AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONT BEGINS TO BACK
TOWARDS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY. THE ONLY CHANGES MADE WAS TO
HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS AND TO INCREASE SKY COVER SLIGHTLY.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. MAV AND MET CAME IN A BIT LOWER FOR
HIGHS THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN, NOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
70S. GIVEN THAT MOST SITES TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER 80S YESTERDAY,
AND TODAY SHOULD BE EVEN A FEW DEGREES LOWER, HAVE FOLLOWED THIS
TREND WITH THE FORECAST. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT, BUT
WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS, DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY
DESPITE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THUS EXPECT
LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR. FOR MANY OF OUR CLIMATE
SITES, THIS IS NEAR RECORD LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEMISPHERICALLY THE OPERATIONAL ENVELOPE SEEMS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE
WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DIVERTING. THE ANOMALOUS
EAST COAST TROUGH REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE/DRIVING FORCE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER, THE STRONGER TROUGH
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH ITS CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING OFF
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A MUCH MORE BROAD
BASED TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY DAYS ACROSS THE REGION
OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITIES OF ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR,
THOUGH THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THURSDAY, STILL SLIGHT
CHANCE, WITH MOR MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, THOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE ON THURSDAY WE COULD COME CLOSE.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INLAND,
AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE, HELP TO ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ATLANTIC MOISTURE. UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH SOME HEATING, WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE, MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
ZONES WITH BETTER STABILITY CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
END UP BEING BELOW NORMAL...AGAIN.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS JUNCTURE IN TERMS OF
THE INVERTED TROUGH`S PLACEMENT AND SURFACE LOW, ALONG THE
FRONT/TROUGH, TRACK. THE 00Z SUITE, OUTSIDE OF THE EURO, SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH KEEPING A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTH AND JUST OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY IS A DIFFERENT STORY.
GEFS IS SHOWING DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT BISECT THE REGION...EC ENSEMBLES HAVE SOMETHING
SIMILAR. THE LATEST 00Z EC CAME IN MUCH MUCH WETTER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, AND WITHOUT
SEEING THE ENSEMBLES UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH STOCK TO PUT INTO ITS
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THE GFS ANC GGEM HAVE THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH, EC HAS IT 24 HOURS EARLIER
ON SATURDAY...SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO WATCH.

MONDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW MORE
SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. MORE MOISTURE AND HEAT ADVECTS
IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT TO BKN
CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 050 ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS,
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT FEW CLOUDS.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z AND
GENERALLY REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS AT KACY WHERE A SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY. AFTER 00Z...EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT...GENERALLY 5KT OR LESS AT ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF PHL.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
DEVELOPMENT. PATCHY IFR FOG OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH BETTER
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291327
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT FURTHER OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE MERGES WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE OLD COLD FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST
OFF THE COAST AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONT BEGINS TO BACK
TOWARDS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY. THE ONLY CHANGES MADE WAS TO
HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS AND TO INCREASE SKY COVER SLIGHTLY.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. MAV AND MET CAME IN A BIT LOWER FOR
HIGHS THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN, NOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
70S. GIVEN THAT MOST SITES TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER 80S YESTERDAY,
AND TODAY SHOULD BE EVEN A FEW DEGREES LOWER, HAVE FOLLOWED THIS
TREND WITH THE FORECAST. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT, BUT
WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS, DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY
DESPITE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THUS EXPECT
LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR. FOR MANY OF OUR CLIMATE
SITES, THIS IS NEAR RECORD LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEMISPHERICALLY THE OPERATIONAL ENVELOPE SEEMS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE
WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DIVERTING. THE ANOMALOUS
EAST COAST TROUGH REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE/DRIVING FORCE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER, THE STRONGER TROUGH
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH ITS CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING OFF
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A MUCH MORE BROAD
BASED TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY DAYS ACROSS THE REGION
OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITIES OF ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR,
THOUGH THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THURSDAY, STILL SLIGHT
CHANCE, WITH MOR MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, THOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE ON THURSDAY WE COULD COME CLOSE.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INLAND,
AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE, HELP TO ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ATLANTIC MOISTURE. UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH SOME HEATING, WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE, MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
ZONES WITH BETTER STABILITY CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
END UP BEING BELOW NORMAL...AGAIN.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS JUNCTURE IN TERMS OF
THE INVERTED TROUGH`S PLACEMENT AND SURFACE LOW, ALONG THE
FRONT/TROUGH, TRACK. THE 00Z SUITE, OUTSIDE OF THE EURO, SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH KEEPING A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTH AND JUST OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY IS A DIFFERENT STORY.
GEFS IS SHOWING DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT BISECT THE REGION...EC ENSEMBLES HAVE SOMETHING
SIMILAR. THE LATEST 00Z EC CAME IN MUCH MUCH WETTER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, AND WITHOUT
SEEING THE ENSEMBLES UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH STOCK TO PUT INTO ITS
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THE GFS ANC GGEM HAVE THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH, EC HAS IT 24 HOURS EARLIER
ON SATURDAY...SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO WATCH.

MONDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW MORE
SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. MORE MOISTURE AND HEAT ADVECTS
IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT TO BKN
CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 050 ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS,
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT FEW CLOUDS.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z AND
GENERALLY REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS AT KACY WHERE A SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY. AFTER 00Z...EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT...GENERALLY 5KT OR LESS AT ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF PHL.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
DEVELOPMENT. PATCHY IFR FOG OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH BETTER
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291327
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT FURTHER OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE MERGES WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE OLD COLD FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST
OFF THE COAST AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONT BEGINS TO BACK
TOWARDS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY. THE ONLY CHANGES MADE WAS TO
HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS AND TO INCREASE SKY COVER SLIGHTLY.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. MAV AND MET CAME IN A BIT LOWER FOR
HIGHS THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN, NOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
70S. GIVEN THAT MOST SITES TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER 80S YESTERDAY,
AND TODAY SHOULD BE EVEN A FEW DEGREES LOWER, HAVE FOLLOWED THIS
TREND WITH THE FORECAST. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT, BUT
WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS, DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY
DESPITE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THUS EXPECT
LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR. FOR MANY OF OUR CLIMATE
SITES, THIS IS NEAR RECORD LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEMISPHERICALLY THE OPERATIONAL ENVELOPE SEEMS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE
WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DIVERTING. THE ANOMALOUS
EAST COAST TROUGH REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE/DRIVING FORCE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER, THE STRONGER TROUGH
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH ITS CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING OFF
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A MUCH MORE BROAD
BASED TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY DAYS ACROSS THE REGION
OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITIES OF ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR,
THOUGH THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THURSDAY, STILL SLIGHT
CHANCE, WITH MOR MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, THOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE ON THURSDAY WE COULD COME CLOSE.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INLAND,
AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE, HELP TO ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ATLANTIC MOISTURE. UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH SOME HEATING, WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE, MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
ZONES WITH BETTER STABILITY CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
END UP BEING BELOW NORMAL...AGAIN.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS JUNCTURE IN TERMS OF
THE INVERTED TROUGH`S PLACEMENT AND SURFACE LOW, ALONG THE
FRONT/TROUGH, TRACK. THE 00Z SUITE, OUTSIDE OF THE EURO, SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH KEEPING A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTH AND JUST OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY IS A DIFFERENT STORY.
GEFS IS SHOWING DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT BISECT THE REGION...EC ENSEMBLES HAVE SOMETHING
SIMILAR. THE LATEST 00Z EC CAME IN MUCH MUCH WETTER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, AND WITHOUT
SEEING THE ENSEMBLES UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH STOCK TO PUT INTO ITS
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THE GFS ANC GGEM HAVE THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH, EC HAS IT 24 HOURS EARLIER
ON SATURDAY...SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO WATCH.

MONDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW MORE
SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. MORE MOISTURE AND HEAT ADVECTS
IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT TO BKN
CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 050 ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS,
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT FEW CLOUDS.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z AND
GENERALLY REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS AT KACY WHERE A SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY. AFTER 00Z...EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT...GENERALLY 5KT OR LESS AT ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF PHL.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
DEVELOPMENT. PATCHY IFR FOG OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH BETTER
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291327
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
927 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT FURTHER OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE MERGES WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE OLD COLD FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST
OFF THE COAST AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONT BEGINS TO BACK
TOWARDS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES TO THE FORECAST TODAY. THE ONLY CHANGES MADE WAS TO
HOURLY TEMP/DEWPOINT GRIDS AND TO INCREASE SKY COVER SLIGHTLY.

WILL CONTINUE TO SEE COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. MAV AND MET CAME IN A BIT LOWER FOR
HIGHS THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN, NOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
70S. GIVEN THAT MOST SITES TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER 80S YESTERDAY,
AND TODAY SHOULD BE EVEN A FEW DEGREES LOWER, HAVE FOLLOWED THIS
TREND WITH THE FORECAST. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT, BUT
WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS, DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY
DESPITE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE
REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THUS EXPECT
LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR. FOR MANY OF OUR CLIMATE
SITES, THIS IS NEAR RECORD LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEMISPHERICALLY THE OPERATIONAL ENVELOPE SEEMS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE
WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DIVERTING. THE ANOMALOUS
EAST COAST TROUGH REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE/DRIVING FORCE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER, THE STRONGER TROUGH
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH ITS CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING OFF
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A MUCH MORE BROAD
BASED TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY DAYS ACROSS THE REGION
OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITIES OF ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR,
THOUGH THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THURSDAY, STILL SLIGHT
CHANCE, WITH MOR MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, THOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE ON THURSDAY WE COULD COME CLOSE.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INLAND,
AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE, HELP TO ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ATLANTIC MOISTURE. UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH SOME HEATING, WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE, MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
ZONES WITH BETTER STABILITY CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
END UP BEING BELOW NORMAL...AGAIN.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS JUNCTURE IN TERMS OF
THE INVERTED TROUGH`S PLACEMENT AND SURFACE LOW, ALONG THE
FRONT/TROUGH, TRACK. THE 00Z SUITE, OUTSIDE OF THE EURO, SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH KEEPING A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTH AND JUST OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY IS A DIFFERENT STORY.
GEFS IS SHOWING DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT BISECT THE REGION...EC ENSEMBLES HAVE SOMETHING
SIMILAR. THE LATEST 00Z EC CAME IN MUCH MUCH WETTER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, AND WITHOUT
SEEING THE ENSEMBLES UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH STOCK TO PUT INTO ITS
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THE GFS ANC GGEM HAVE THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH, EC HAS IT 24 HOURS EARLIER
ON SATURDAY...SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO WATCH.

MONDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW MORE
SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. MORE MOISTURE AND HEAT ADVECTS
IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT TO BKN
CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 050 ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS,
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT FEW CLOUDS.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z AND
GENERALLY REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS AT KACY WHERE A SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY. AFTER 00Z...EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT...GENERALLY 5KT OR LESS AT ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF PHL.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
DEVELOPMENT. PATCHY IFR FOG OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH BETTER
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 291203
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
803 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT FURTHER OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE MERGES WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE OLD COLD FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST
OFF THE COAST AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONT BEGINS TO BACK
TOWARDS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. MAV AND MET CAME IN A BIT LOWER FOR
HIGHS THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN, NOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
70S. GIVEN THAT MOST SITES TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER 80S YESTERDAY,
AND TODAY SHOULD BE EVEN A FEW DEGREES LOWER, HAVE FOLLOWED THIS
TREND WITH THE FORECAST. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT, BUT
WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS, DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY
DESPITE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THUS EXPECT
LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR. FOR MANY OF OUR CLIMATE
SITES, THIS IS NEAR RECORD LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEMISPHERICALLY THE OPERATIONAL ENVELOPE SEEMS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE
WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DIVERTING. THE ANOMALOUS
EAST COAST TROUGH REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE/DRIVING FORCE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER, THE STRONGER TROUGH
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH ITS CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING OFF
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A MUCH MORE BROAD
BASED TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY DAYS ACROSS THE REGION
OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITIES OF ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR,
THOUGH THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THURSDAY, STILL SLIGHT
CHANCE, WITH MOR MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, THOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE ON THURSDAY WE COULD COME CLOSE.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INLAND,
AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE, HELP TO ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ATLANTIC MOISTURE. UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH SOME HEATING, WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE, MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
ZONES WITH BETTER STABILITY CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
END UP BEING BELOW NORMAL...AGAIN.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS JUNCTURE IN TERMS OF
THE INVERTED TROUGH`S PLACEMENT AND SURFACE LOW, ALONG THE
FRONT/TROUGH, TRACK. THE 00Z SUITE, OUTSIDE OF THE EURO, SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH KEEPING A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTH AND JUST OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY IS A DIFFERENT STORY.
GEFS IS SHOWING DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT BISECT THE REGION...EC ENSEMBLES HAVE SOMETHING
SIMILAR. THE LATEST 00Z EC CAME IN MUCH MUCH WETTER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, AND WITHOUT
SEEING THE ENSEMBLES UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH STOCK TO PUT INTO ITS
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THE GFS ANC GGEM HAVE THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH, EC HAS IT 24 HOURS EARLIER
ON SATURDAY...SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO WATCH.

MONDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW MORE
SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. MORE MOISTURE AND HEAT ADVECTS
IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT TO BKN
CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 050 ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS,
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT FEW CLOUDS.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z AND
GENERALLY REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS AT KACY WHERE A SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY. AFTER 00Z...EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT...GENERALLY 5KT OR LESS AT ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF PHL.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
DEVELOPMENT. PATCHY IFR FOG OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH BETTER
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON





000
FXUS61 KPHI 291203
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
803 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT FURTHER OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE MERGES WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE OLD COLD FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST
OFF THE COAST AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONT BEGINS TO BACK
TOWARDS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. MAV AND MET CAME IN A BIT LOWER FOR
HIGHS THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN, NOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
70S. GIVEN THAT MOST SITES TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER 80S YESTERDAY,
AND TODAY SHOULD BE EVEN A FEW DEGREES LOWER, HAVE FOLLOWED THIS
TREND WITH THE FORECAST. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT, BUT
WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS, DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY
DESPITE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THUS EXPECT
LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR. FOR MANY OF OUR CLIMATE
SITES, THIS IS NEAR RECORD LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEMISPHERICALLY THE OPERATIONAL ENVELOPE SEEMS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE
WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DIVERTING. THE ANOMALOUS
EAST COAST TROUGH REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE/DRIVING FORCE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER, THE STRONGER TROUGH
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH ITS CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING OFF
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A MUCH MORE BROAD
BASED TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY DAYS ACROSS THE REGION
OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITIES OF ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR,
THOUGH THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THURSDAY, STILL SLIGHT
CHANCE, WITH MOR MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, THOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE ON THURSDAY WE COULD COME CLOSE.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INLAND,
AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE, HELP TO ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ATLANTIC MOISTURE. UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH SOME HEATING, WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE, MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
ZONES WITH BETTER STABILITY CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
END UP BEING BELOW NORMAL...AGAIN.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS JUNCTURE IN TERMS OF
THE INVERTED TROUGH`S PLACEMENT AND SURFACE LOW, ALONG THE
FRONT/TROUGH, TRACK. THE 00Z SUITE, OUTSIDE OF THE EURO, SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH KEEPING A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTH AND JUST OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY IS A DIFFERENT STORY.
GEFS IS SHOWING DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT BISECT THE REGION...EC ENSEMBLES HAVE SOMETHING
SIMILAR. THE LATEST 00Z EC CAME IN MUCH MUCH WETTER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, AND WITHOUT
SEEING THE ENSEMBLES UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH STOCK TO PUT INTO ITS
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THE GFS ANC GGEM HAVE THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH, EC HAS IT 24 HOURS EARLIER
ON SATURDAY...SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO WATCH.

MONDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW MORE
SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. MORE MOISTURE AND HEAT ADVECTS
IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT TO BKN
CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 050 ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS,
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT FEW CLOUDS.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z AND
GENERALLY REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS AT KACY WHERE A SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY. AFTER 00Z...EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT...GENERALLY 5KT OR LESS AT ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF PHL.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
DEVELOPMENT. PATCHY IFR FOG OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 15 KT AND SEAS
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH BETTER
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 290811
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT FURTHER OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE MERGES WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE OLD COLD FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST
OFF THE COAST AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONT BEGINS TO BACK
TOWARDS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. MAV AND MET CAME IN A BIT LOWER FOR
HIGHS THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN, NOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
70S. GIVEN THAT MOST SITES TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER 80S YESTERDAY,
AND TODAY SHOULD BE EVEN A FEW DEGREES LOWER, HAVE FOLLOWED THIS
TREND WITH THE FORECAST. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT, BUT
WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS, DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY
DESPITE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THUS EXPECT
LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR. FOR MANY OF OUR CLIMATE
SITES, THIS IS NEAR RECORD LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEMISPHERICALLY THE OPERATIONAL ENVELOPE SEEMS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE
WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DIVERTING. THE ANOMALOUS
EAST COAST TROUGH REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE/DRIVING FORCE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER, THE STRONGER TROUGH
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH ITS CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING OFF
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A MUCH MORE BROAD
BASED TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY DAYS ACROSS THE REGION
OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITIES OF ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR,
THOUGH THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THURSDAY, STILL SLIGHT
CHANCE, WITH MOR MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, THOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE ON THURSDAY WE COULD COME CLOSE.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INLAND,
AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE, HELP TO ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ATLANTIC MOISTURE. UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH SOME HEATING, WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE, MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
ZONES WITH BETTER STABILITY CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
END UP BEING BELOW NORMAL...AGAIN.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS JUNCTURE IN TERMS OF
THE INVERTED TROUGH`S PLACEMENT AND SURFACE LOW, ALONG THE
FRONT/TROUGH, TRACK. THE 00Z SUITE, OUTSIDE OF THE EURO, SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH KEEPING A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTH AND JUST OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY IS A DIFFERENT STORY.
GEFS IS SHOWING DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT BISECT THE REGION...EC ENSEMBLES HAVE SOMETHING
SIMILAR. THE LATEST 00Z EC CAME IN MUCH MUCH WETTER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, AND WITHOUT
SEEING THE ENSEMBLES UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH STOCK TO PUT INTO ITS
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THE GFS ANC GGEM HAVE THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH, EC HAS IT 24 HOURS EARLIER
ON SATURDAY...SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO WATCH.

MONDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW MORE
SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. MORE MOISTURE AND HEAT ADVECTS
IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT TO BKN
CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 050 ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS,
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT FEW CLOUDS.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z AND
GENERALLY REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS AT KACY WHERE A SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY. AFTER 00Z...EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT...GENERALLY 5KT OR LESS AT ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF PHL.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
DEVELOPMENT. PATCHY IFR FOG OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS ADJACENT TO
NORTHERN NJ. THUS ANTICIPATE THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
EXPIRE ON TIME AT 6 AM.

AFTER 6AM...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 15 KT
AND SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH BETTER
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 290811
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
411 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILTER IN TODAY AND WEDNESDAY PUSHING THE
PREVIOUS COLD FRONT FURTHER OFFSHORE. EVENTUALLY THE AFOREMENTIONED
HIGH PRESSURE MERGES WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE OLD COLD FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST
OFF THE COAST AS A STATIONARY FRONT. THIS FRONT BEGINS TO BACK
TOWARDS THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WILL CONTINUE TO SEE COLD AND DRY AIR ADVECTION THROUGH THE DAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. MAV AND MET CAME IN A BIT LOWER FOR
HIGHS THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN, NOW KEEPING MUCH OF THE REGION IN THE
70S. GIVEN THAT MOST SITES TOPPED OUT IN THE LOWER 80S YESTERDAY,
AND TODAY SHOULD BE EVEN A FEW DEGREES LOWER, HAVE FOLLOWED THIS
TREND WITH THE FORECAST. SHOULD SEE SOME CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT, BUT
WITH THE DRY LOW LEVELS, DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TODAY
DESPITE THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING WEST OF THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM WEDNESDAY/...
CLEARING SKIES, LIGHT WINDS, AND DRY AIR WILL SET THE STAGE FOR
PRIME RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION. THUS EXPECT
LOWS TO RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE POCONOS TO THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST AND IN THE URBAN CORRIDOR. FOR MANY OF OUR CLIMATE
SITES, THIS IS NEAR RECORD LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HEMISPHERICALLY THE OPERATIONAL ENVELOPE SEEMS PRETTY MUCH IN LINE
WITH ONE ANOTHER THROUGH SATURDAY BEFORE DIVERTING. THE ANOMALOUS
EAST COAST TROUGH REMAINS THE DOMINATE FEATURE/DRIVING FORCE
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. THEREAFTER, THE STRONGER TROUGH
BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN WITH ITS CLOSED LOW OPENING UP AND MOVING OFF
TOWARDS THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE WEEKEND. A MUCH MORE BROAD
BASED TROUGH REMAINS OVERHEAD THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...EXPECTING MOSTLY DRY DAYS ACROSS THE REGION
OUTSIDE THE POSSIBILITIES OF ISOLATED INSTABILITY SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA. COLD POOL INTERACTION WITH A FEW
PASSING SHORTWAVES MAY BE ENOUGH TO GET AIRMASS SHOWERS TO OCCUR,
THOUGH THE BETTER CHANCE LOOKS TO OCCUR TO THURSDAY, STILL SLIGHT
CHANCE, WITH MOR MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL, THOUGH DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH SUNSHINE WE RECEIVE ON THURSDAY WE COULD COME CLOSE.

FRIDAY...TRANSITIONAL DAY WITH THE LOOKS OF AN INVERTED TROUGH
SITTING OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE OLD BAROCLINIC ZONE THAT PUSHED
THROUGH ON MONDAY. ONSHORE FLOW TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW INLAND,
AROUND THE DEPARTING SURFACE RIDGE, HELP TO ADVECT IN SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT ATLANTIC MOISTURE. UPSLOPE FLOW COMBINED
WITH SOME HEATING, WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE, MAY BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR
ZONES WITH BETTER STABILITY CLOSER TO THE COAST. TEMPERATURES SHOULD
END UP BEING BELOW NORMAL...AGAIN.

SATURDAY - SUNDAY...LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY AT THIS JUNCTURE IN TERMS OF
THE INVERTED TROUGH`S PLACEMENT AND SURFACE LOW, ALONG THE
FRONT/TROUGH, TRACK. THE 00Z SUITE, OUTSIDE OF THE EURO, SEEMS
REASONABLE WITH KEEPING A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO OUR
SOUTH AND JUST OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY...SUNDAY IS A DIFFERENT STORY.
GEFS IS SHOWING DECENT CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT BISECT THE REGION...EC ENSEMBLES HAVE SOMETHING
SIMILAR. THE LATEST 00Z EC CAME IN MUCH MUCH WETTER SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY COMPARED TO THE OTHER MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE, AND WITHOUT
SEEING THE ENSEMBLES UNCERTAIN HOW MUCH STOCK TO PUT INTO ITS
SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. THE GFS ANC GGEM HAVE THE SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH, EC HAS IT 24 HOURS EARLIER
ON SATURDAY...SOMETHING TO CONTINUE TO WATCH.

MONDAY...SLIGHT DRYING TREND EXPECTED ON MONDAY THOUGH NOT ENTIRELY
VOID OF ANY SHOWERS WITH COLD AIR STILL ALOFT WITH A FEW MORE
SHORTWAVES SHEARING ACROSS OVERHEAD. MORE MOISTURE AND HEAT ADVECTS
IN AND COULD PUSH TEMPERATURES BACK TO NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. SCT TO BKN
CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND 050 ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS,
BUT OTHERWISE EXPECT FEW CLOUDS.

NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL SHIFT TO WESTERLY BETWEEN 15 AND 18Z AND
GENERALLY REMAIN WESTERLY THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF PERIOD. THE
ONE EXCEPTION IS AT KACY WHERE A SEA BREEZE COULD ARRIVE BETWEEN 18
AND 21Z...SHIFTING WINDS TO SOUTHEASTERLY. AFTER 00Z...EXPECT WINDS
TO BECOME LIGHT...GENERALLY 5KT OR LESS AT ALL TAF SITES.

OUTLOOK...

WEDNESDAY - THURSDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE MAINLY NORTH OF PHL.

FRIDAY - SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH DAY, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON
DEVELOPMENT. PATCHY IFR FOG OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE ON THE ATLANTIC WATERS ADJACENT TO
NORTHERN NJ. THUS ANTICIPATE THAT THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL
EXPIRE ON TIME AT 6 AM.

AFTER 6AM...EXPECT WINDS AND SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH WINDS GENERALLY STAYING BELOW 15 KT
AND SEAS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY - SATURDAY...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE EACH AFTERNOON WITH BETTER
CHANCES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...HEAVENER
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...HEAVENER
AVIATION...HEAVENER/JOHNSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/JOHNSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 290154
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING IS SHOVING A
COLD FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT THEN MERGES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK.
MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST AS A
STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER MAINE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR REGION AND OFF THE
COAST.

THE RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WERE ALMOST
ENTIRELY GONE BY 930 PM. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SLOW DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A NICE TUESDAY AHEAD AS COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH PW VALUES BELOW ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS
925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. USED A
BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WHICH ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
THIS FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28
NAM/GFS MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE
12Z/28 GFS MOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER
(FRIDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/28 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS
EXCEPT HAVE APPLIED THE WARMER 12Z/28 MEXMOS TEMPS. ALL THIS WAS
CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/28 ECMWF TO ENSURE WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
(BARRING MIDDAY OVC SKIES AND RAIN) WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE WAS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/28 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05 .

THE DAILIES...
IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE WE`RE PRIMARILY IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REGION THIS 6 DAY PERIOD AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH RAIN.

BASICALLY FOR NOW ITS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FORECAST THIS 6
DAY PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR EVENING CONVECTION NE PA AND NW
NJ LATER IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW IS CHANCEY AND LOW CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR THE LURKING QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST... IT MAY
DRIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT WITH ITS
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING ASHORE BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT DOES APPEAR THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND AS IT DOES...HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE FORECAST BASIS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED. THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT MAY REACH KACY EARLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY- SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG
OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THE GUSTS WILL SWITCH FROM WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND DROP OFF SLIGHT, AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL. THE
SEAS MAY REMAIN LONGER ON THE NORTHERN WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS, SO
WE LEAVE THE NORTHERN HALF ENDING AT 6 AM TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. LOOKS LIKE
GOOD WEATHER FOR BEING ON THE WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION (FOR SEVERAL
FORECAST CYCLES) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION STILL DOESNT
HAVE IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 290154
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING IS SHOVING A
COLD FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT THEN MERGES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK.
MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST AS A
STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER MAINE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR REGION AND OFF THE
COAST.

THE RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WERE ALMOST
ENTIRELY GONE BY 930 PM. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SLOW DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A NICE TUESDAY AHEAD AS COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH PW VALUES BELOW ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS
925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. USED A
BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WHICH ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
THIS FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28
NAM/GFS MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE
12Z/28 GFS MOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER
(FRIDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/28 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS
EXCEPT HAVE APPLIED THE WARMER 12Z/28 MEXMOS TEMPS. ALL THIS WAS
CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/28 ECMWF TO ENSURE WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
(BARRING MIDDAY OVC SKIES AND RAIN) WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE WAS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/28 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05 .

THE DAILIES...
IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE WE`RE PRIMARILY IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REGION THIS 6 DAY PERIOD AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH RAIN.

BASICALLY FOR NOW ITS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FORECAST THIS 6
DAY PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR EVENING CONVECTION NE PA AND NW
NJ LATER IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW IS CHANCEY AND LOW CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR THE LURKING QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST... IT MAY
DRIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT WITH ITS
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING ASHORE BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT DOES APPEAR THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND AS IT DOES...HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE FORECAST BASIS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED. THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT MAY REACH KACY EARLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY- SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG
OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THE GUSTS WILL SWITCH FROM WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND DROP OFF SLIGHT, AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL. THE
SEAS MAY REMAIN LONGER ON THE NORTHERN WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS, SO
WE LEAVE THE NORTHERN HALF ENDING AT 6 AM TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. LOOKS LIKE
GOOD WEATHER FOR BEING ON THE WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION (FOR SEVERAL
FORECAST CYCLES) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION STILL DOESNT
HAVE IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 290154
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING IS SHOVING A
COLD FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT THEN MERGES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK.
MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST AS A
STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER MAINE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR REGION AND OFF THE
COAST.

THE RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WERE ALMOST
ENTIRELY GONE BY 930 PM. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SLOW DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A NICE TUESDAY AHEAD AS COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH PW VALUES BELOW ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS
925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. USED A
BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WHICH ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
THIS FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28
NAM/GFS MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE
12Z/28 GFS MOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER
(FRIDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/28 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS
EXCEPT HAVE APPLIED THE WARMER 12Z/28 MEXMOS TEMPS. ALL THIS WAS
CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/28 ECMWF TO ENSURE WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
(BARRING MIDDAY OVC SKIES AND RAIN) WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE WAS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/28 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05 .

THE DAILIES...
IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE WE`RE PRIMARILY IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REGION THIS 6 DAY PERIOD AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH RAIN.

BASICALLY FOR NOW ITS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FORECAST THIS 6
DAY PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR EVENING CONVECTION NE PA AND NW
NJ LATER IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW IS CHANCEY AND LOW CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR THE LURKING QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST... IT MAY
DRIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT WITH ITS
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING ASHORE BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT DOES APPEAR THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND AS IT DOES...HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE FORECAST BASIS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED. THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT MAY REACH KACY EARLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY- SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG
OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THE GUSTS WILL SWITCH FROM WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND DROP OFF SLIGHT, AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL. THE
SEAS MAY REMAIN LONGER ON THE NORTHERN WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS, SO
WE LEAVE THE NORTHERN HALF ENDING AT 6 AM TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. LOOKS LIKE
GOOD WEATHER FOR BEING ON THE WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION (FOR SEVERAL
FORECAST CYCLES) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION STILL DOESNT
HAVE IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 290154
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
954 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING IS SHOVING A
COLD FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL
FOLLOW LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT THEN MERGES INTO THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK.
MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST AS A
STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER NEW
ENGLAND DURING THE NIGHT. MEANWHILE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED
OVER MAINE WILL LIFT NORTHWARD. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PART OF OUR REGION AND OFF THE
COAST.

THE RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WERE ALMOST
ENTIRELY GONE BY 930 PM. WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SLOW DECREASE IN
CLOUD COVER AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO OUR REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST.

LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A NICE TUESDAY AHEAD AS COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH PW VALUES BELOW ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS
925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. USED A
BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WHICH ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
THIS FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28
NAM/GFS MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE
12Z/28 GFS MOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER
(FRIDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/28 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS
EXCEPT HAVE APPLIED THE WARMER 12Z/28 MEXMOS TEMPS. ALL THIS WAS
CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/28 ECMWF TO ENSURE WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
(BARRING MIDDAY OVC SKIES AND RAIN) WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE WAS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/28 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05 .

THE DAILIES...
IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE WE`RE PRIMARILY IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REGION THIS 6 DAY PERIOD AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH RAIN.

BASICALLY FOR NOW ITS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FORECAST THIS 6
DAY PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR EVENING CONVECTION NE PA AND NW
NJ LATER IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW IS CHANCEY AND LOW CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR THE LURKING QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST... IT MAY
DRIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT WITH ITS
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING ASHORE BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT DOES APPEAR THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND AS IT DOES...HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE FORECAST BASIS.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

A WEST NORTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS IS ANTICIPATED. THE SEA
BREEZE FRONT MAY REACH KACY EARLY ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY- SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG
OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THE GUSTS WILL SWITCH FROM WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND DROP OFF SLIGHT, AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL. THE
SEAS MAY REMAIN LONGER ON THE NORTHERN WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS, SO
WE LEAVE THE NORTHERN HALF ENDING AT 6 AM TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. LOOKS LIKE
GOOD WEATHER FOR BEING ON THE WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION (FOR SEVERAL
FORECAST CYCLES) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION STILL DOESNT
HAVE IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 282238
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
638 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS EVENING IS
SHOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT THEN
MERGES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS
WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST AS
A STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND 600 PM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS MAINE. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION.

THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MORRIS COUNTY, ACROSS UPPER BUCKS
COUNTY TO SOUTHERN BERKS COUNTY AROUND 600 PM. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
REACH PHILADELPHIA ABOUT 800 PM, ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 1000 PM AND
FENWICK ISLAND NEAR MIDNIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WERE DISSIPATING
SLOWLY WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS IN OUR REGION EXTENDED FROM AROUND
ALLENTOWN TO THE LANCASTER AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
UNTIL ABOUT 900 PM. AFTERWARD, WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SLOW
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A NICE TUESDAY AHEAD AS COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH PW VALUES BELOW ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS
925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. USED A
BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WHICH ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
THIS FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28
NAM/GFS MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE
12Z/28 GFS MOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER
(FRIDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/28 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS
EXCEPT HAVE APPLIED THE WARMER 12Z/28 MEXMOS TEMPS. ALL THIS WAS
CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/28 ECMWF TO ENSURE WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
(BARRING MIDDAY OVC SKIES AND RAIN) WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE WAS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/28 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05 .

THE DAILIES...
IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE WE`RE PRIMARILY IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REGION THIS 6 DAY PERIOD AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH RAIN.

BASICALLY FOR NOW ITS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FORECAST THIS 6
DAY PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR EVENING CONVECTION NE PA AND NW
NJ LATER IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW IS CHANCEY AND LOW CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR THE LURKING QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST... IT MAY
DRIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT WITH ITS
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING ASHORE BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT DOES APPEAR THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND AS IT DOES...HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE FORECAST BASIS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM AROUND KRDG TO KABE
AND KMMU AROUND 2200Z, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE/WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN,
THEN THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF, AND WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS
MAY BEGIN SWITCHING TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING, AND A SEABREEZE MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST BY
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY- SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG
OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS NOW, AND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THE GUSTS WILL SWITCH FROM WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND DROP OFF SLIGHT, AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL. THE
SEAS MAY REMAIN LONGER ON THE NORTHERN WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS, SO
WE LEAVE THE NORTHERN HALF ENDING AT 6 AM TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. LOOKS LIKE
GOOD WEATHER FOR BEING ON THE WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION (FOR SEVERAL
FORECAST CYCLES) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION STILL DOESNT
HAVE IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 282238
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
638 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS EVENING IS
SHOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT THEN
MERGES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS
WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST AS
A STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND 600 PM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS MAINE. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION.

THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MORRIS COUNTY, ACROSS UPPER BUCKS
COUNTY TO SOUTHERN BERKS COUNTY AROUND 600 PM. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
REACH PHILADELPHIA ABOUT 800 PM, ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 1000 PM AND
FENWICK ISLAND NEAR MIDNIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WERE DISSIPATING
SLOWLY WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS IN OUR REGION EXTENDED FROM AROUND
ALLENTOWN TO THE LANCASTER AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
UNTIL ABOUT 900 PM. AFTERWARD, WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SLOW
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A NICE TUESDAY AHEAD AS COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH PW VALUES BELOW ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS
925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. USED A
BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WHICH ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
THIS FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28
NAM/GFS MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE
12Z/28 GFS MOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER
(FRIDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/28 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS
EXCEPT HAVE APPLIED THE WARMER 12Z/28 MEXMOS TEMPS. ALL THIS WAS
CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/28 ECMWF TO ENSURE WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
(BARRING MIDDAY OVC SKIES AND RAIN) WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE WAS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/28 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05 .

THE DAILIES...
IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE WE`RE PRIMARILY IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REGION THIS 6 DAY PERIOD AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH RAIN.

BASICALLY FOR NOW ITS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FORECAST THIS 6
DAY PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR EVENING CONVECTION NE PA AND NW
NJ LATER IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW IS CHANCEY AND LOW CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR THE LURKING QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST... IT MAY
DRIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT WITH ITS
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING ASHORE BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT DOES APPEAR THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND AS IT DOES...HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE FORECAST BASIS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM AROUND KRDG TO KABE
AND KMMU AROUND 2200Z, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE/WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN,
THEN THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF, AND WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS
MAY BEGIN SWITCHING TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING, AND A SEABREEZE MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST BY
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY- SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG
OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS NOW, AND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THE GUSTS WILL SWITCH FROM WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND DROP OFF SLIGHT, AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL. THE
SEAS MAY REMAIN LONGER ON THE NORTHERN WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS, SO
WE LEAVE THE NORTHERN HALF ENDING AT 6 AM TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. LOOKS LIKE
GOOD WEATHER FOR BEING ON THE WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION (FOR SEVERAL
FORECAST CYCLES) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION STILL DOESNT
HAVE IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 282238
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
638 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS EVENING IS
SHOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT THEN
MERGES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS
WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST AS
A STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND 600 PM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS MAINE. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION.

THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MORRIS COUNTY, ACROSS UPPER BUCKS
COUNTY TO SOUTHERN BERKS COUNTY AROUND 600 PM. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
REACH PHILADELPHIA ABOUT 800 PM, ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 1000 PM AND
FENWICK ISLAND NEAR MIDNIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WERE DISSIPATING
SLOWLY WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS IN OUR REGION EXTENDED FROM AROUND
ALLENTOWN TO THE LANCASTER AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
UNTIL ABOUT 900 PM. AFTERWARD, WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SLOW
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A NICE TUESDAY AHEAD AS COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH PW VALUES BELOW ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS
925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. USED A
BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WHICH ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
THIS FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28
NAM/GFS MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE
12Z/28 GFS MOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER
(FRIDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/28 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS
EXCEPT HAVE APPLIED THE WARMER 12Z/28 MEXMOS TEMPS. ALL THIS WAS
CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/28 ECMWF TO ENSURE WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
(BARRING MIDDAY OVC SKIES AND RAIN) WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE WAS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/28 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05 .

THE DAILIES...
IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE WE`RE PRIMARILY IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REGION THIS 6 DAY PERIOD AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH RAIN.

BASICALLY FOR NOW ITS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FORECAST THIS 6
DAY PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR EVENING CONVECTION NE PA AND NW
NJ LATER IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW IS CHANCEY AND LOW CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR THE LURKING QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST... IT MAY
DRIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT WITH ITS
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING ASHORE BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT DOES APPEAR THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND AS IT DOES...HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE FORECAST BASIS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM AROUND KRDG TO KABE
AND KMMU AROUND 2200Z, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE/WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN,
THEN THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF, AND WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS
MAY BEGIN SWITCHING TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING, AND A SEABREEZE MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST BY
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY- SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG
OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS NOW, AND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THE GUSTS WILL SWITCH FROM WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND DROP OFF SLIGHT, AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL. THE
SEAS MAY REMAIN LONGER ON THE NORTHERN WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS, SO
WE LEAVE THE NORTHERN HALF ENDING AT 6 AM TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. LOOKS LIKE
GOOD WEATHER FOR BEING ON THE WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION (FOR SEVERAL
FORECAST CYCLES) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION STILL DOESNT
HAVE IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 282238
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
638 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS EVENING IS
SHOVING A COLD FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT THEN
MERGES INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS
WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST AS
A STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER NEW
ENGLAND THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE, SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER
SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AROUND 600 PM WILL LIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS MAINE. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO PULL A COLD FRONT THROUGH
OUR REGION.

THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM MORRIS COUNTY, ACROSS UPPER BUCKS
COUNTY TO SOUTHERN BERKS COUNTY AROUND 600 PM. THE BOUNDARY SHOULD
REACH PHILADELPHIA ABOUT 800 PM, ATLANTIC CITY AROUND 1000 PM AND
FENWICK ISLAND NEAR MIDNIGHT.

RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT WERE DISSIPATING
SLOWLY WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. THE MORE
SUBSTANTIAL BATCH OF SHOWERS IN OUR REGION EXTENDED FROM AROUND
ALLENTOWN TO THE LANCASTER AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. WE WILL
CONTINUE TO MENTION SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT
UNTIL ABOUT 900 PM. AFTERWARD, WE ARE ANTICIPATING A SLOW
DECREASE IN CLOUD COVER AS DRY AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO OUR
REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST.

LOW TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A NICE TUESDAY AHEAD AS COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH PW VALUES BELOW ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS
925/850 MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. USED A
BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS
ON TUESDAY WHICH ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF
THIS FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28
NAM/GFS MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE
12Z/28 GFS MOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER
(FRIDAY ONWARD) THE 1522Z/28 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS
EXCEPT HAVE APPLIED THE WARMER 12Z/28 MEXMOS TEMPS. ALL THIS WAS
CHECKED AGAINST THE 12Z/28 ECMWF TO ENSURE WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK
(BARRING MIDDAY OVC SKIES AND RAIN) WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY
PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY
GUIDANCE WAS CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/28 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR
0.05 .

THE DAILIES...
IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE WE`RE PRIMARILY IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REGION THIS 6 DAY PERIOD AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH RAIN.

BASICALLY FOR NOW ITS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FORECAST THIS 6
DAY PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR EVENING CONVECTION NE PA AND NW
NJ LATER IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW IS CHANCEY AND LOW CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR THE LURKING QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST... IT MAY
DRIFT CLOSER TO THE SHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT WITH ITS
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING ASHORE BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT DOES APPEAR THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND AS IT DOES...HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE FORECAST BASIS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT AND
INTO TUESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS EXTENDED FROM AROUND KRDG TO KABE
AND KMMU AROUND 2200Z, MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE/WEAKEN AS THEY MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA THIS EVENING.

WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN,
THEN THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF, AND WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS
MAY BEGIN SWITCHING TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY EVENING, AND A SEABREEZE MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST BY
THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.

THURSDAY- SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG
OR STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS NOW, AND SHOULD
CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THE GUSTS WILL SWITCH FROM WEST TO
NORTHWEST AND DROP OFF SLIGHT, AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL. THE
SEAS MAY REMAIN LONGER ON THE NORTHERN WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS, SO
WE LEAVE THE NORTHERN HALF ENDING AT 6 AM TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. LOOKS LIKE
GOOD WEATHER FOR BEING ON THE WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION (FOR SEVERAL
FORECAST CYCLES) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION STILL DOESNT
HAVE IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON/IOVINO
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 281957
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING IS SHOVING A COLD
FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT THEN MERGES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE
FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST AS A STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
PASS COMPLETELY THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND VERY
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SHOWERS/THUNDER DISSIPATING AND/OR
WEAKENING AS THEY REACH OUR AREA THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT, SO THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THE SHOWERS COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY
NORTHWARD, BUT WE END EVERYTHING BY MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE SHOWERS END, CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT, BUT HOW
MUCH THEY SCATTER WILL DETERMINE HOW COOL IT GETS TONIGHT. FOR NOW
WE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH DROPS EVERYONE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING, BUT THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP
OFF AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A NICE TUESDAY AHEAD AS COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH PW VALUES BELOW ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS 925/850
MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WHICH ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/28 GFS
MOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/28 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HAVE
APPLIED THE WARMER 12Z/28 MEXMOS TEMPS. ALL THIS WAS CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/28 ECMWF TO ENSURE WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK (BARRING
MIDDAY OVC SKIES AND RAIN) WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z
2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE WAS
CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/28 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05 .


THE DAILIES...
IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE WE`RE PRIMARILY IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REGION THIS 6 DAY PERIOD AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH RAIN.

BASICALLY FOR NOW ITS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FORECAST THIS 6 DAY
PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR EVENING CONVECTION NE PA
AND NW NJ LATER IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW IS CHANCEY AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR THE LURKING QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST... IT MAY DRIFT
CLOSER TO THE SHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT WITH ITS
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING ASHORE BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT DOES APPEAR THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND AS IT DOES...HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE FORECAST BASIS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL DISSIPATE/WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO SHOWER GROUP FOR THE
DELAWARE VALLEY TAFS THIS EVENING, AND ENDED UP ADDING A TEMPO
THUNDERSTORM GROUP FOR ABE/RDG THIS EVENING. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT
VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO 5SM OR LESS, MAINLY FOR ABE/RDG, SO ADDED
IT IN FOR THESE TWO SITES. THE REST WERE LESS CONFIDENT, SO LEFT
THEM OUT FOR NOW.

WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN,
THEN THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF, AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS MAY BEGIN
SWITCHING TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, AND A SEABREEZE MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG OR
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS NOW, AND SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THE GUSTS WILL SWITCH FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND DROP OFF SLIGHT, AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL. THE SEAS MAY
REMAIN LONGER ON THE NORTHERN WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS, SO WE LEAVE
THE NORTHERN HALF ENDING AT 6 AM TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. LOOKS LIKE GOOD
WEATHER FOR BEING ON THE WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION (FOR SEVERAL
FORECAST CYCLES) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION STILL DOESNT
HAVE IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 356
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 356
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 356
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 356







000
FXUS61 KPHI 281957
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING IS SHOVING A COLD
FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT THEN MERGES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK. MEANWHILE...THE
FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST AS A STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
PASS COMPLETELY THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND VERY
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SHOWERS/THUNDER DISSIPATING AND/OR
WEAKENING AS THEY REACH OUR AREA THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT, SO THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THE SHOWERS COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY
NORTHWARD, BUT WE END EVERYTHING BY MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE SHOWERS END, CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT, BUT HOW
MUCH THEY SCATTER WILL DETERMINE HOW COOL IT GETS TONIGHT. FOR NOW
WE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH DROPS EVERYONE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING, BUT THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP
OFF AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A NICE TUESDAY AHEAD AS COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH PW VALUES BELOW ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS 925/850
MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WHICH ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/28 GFS
MOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/28 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT HAVE
APPLIED THE WARMER 12Z/28 MEXMOS TEMPS. ALL THIS WAS CHECKED
AGAINST THE 12Z/28 ECMWF TO ENSURE WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK (BARRING
MIDDAY OVC SKIES AND RAIN) WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z
2METER TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE WAS
CHECKED AGAINST THE 09Z/28 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS THROUGH 00Z
FRIDAY AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05 .


THE DAILIES...
IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE WE`RE PRIMARILY IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REGION THIS 6 DAY PERIOD AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH RAIN.

BASICALLY FOR NOW ITS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FORECAST THIS 6 DAY
PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR EVENING CONVECTION NE PA
AND NW NJ LATER IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW IS CHANCEY AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR THE LURKING QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST... IT MAY DRIFT
CLOSER TO THE SHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT WITH ITS
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING ASHORE BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT DOES APPEAR THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND AS IT DOES...HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE FORECAST BASIS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL DISSIPATE/WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO SHOWER GROUP FOR THE
DELAWARE VALLEY TAFS THIS EVENING, AND ENDED UP ADDING A TEMPO
THUNDERSTORM GROUP FOR ABE/RDG THIS EVENING. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT
VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO 5SM OR LESS, MAINLY FOR ABE/RDG, SO ADDED
IT IN FOR THESE TWO SITES. THE REST WERE LESS CONFIDENT, SO LEFT
THEM OUT FOR NOW.

WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN,
THEN THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF, AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS MAY BEGIN
SWITCHING TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, AND A SEABREEZE MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE
EACH DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG OR
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT.

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS NOW, AND SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THE GUSTS WILL SWITCH FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND DROP OFF SLIGHT, AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL. THE SEAS MAY
REMAIN LONGER ON THE NORTHERN WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS, SO WE LEAVE
THE NORTHERN HALF ENDING AT 6 AM TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED. LOOKS LIKE GOOD
WEATHER FOR BEING ON THE WATERS IN THIS TIME FRAME.

WE ARE MONITORING THE GFS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION (FOR SEVERAL
FORECAST CYCLES) OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR
EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF OPERATIONAL VERSION STILL DOESNT
HAVE IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ430-431-
     452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 356
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 356
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 356
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 356






000
FXUS61 KPHI 281941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING IS SHOVING A COLD
FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT THEN MERGES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK. THE MEANWHILE THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST AS A STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
PASS COMPLETELY THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND VERY
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SHOWERS/THUNDER DISSIPATING AND/OR
WEAKENING AS THEY REACH OUR AREA THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT, SO THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THE SHOWERS COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY
NORTHWARD, BUT WE END EVERYTHING BY MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE SHOWERS END, CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT, BUT HOW
MUCH THEY SCATTER WILL DETERMINE HOW COOL IT GETS TONIGHT. FOR NOW
WE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH DROPS EVERYONE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING, BUT THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP
OFF AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND IT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A NICE TUESDAY AHEAD AS COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH PW VALUES BELOW ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS 925/850
MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WHICH ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/28 GFS
MOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/28 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT APPLIED
THE WARMER 12Z/28 MEXMOS TEMPS. ALL THIS WAS CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/28 ECMWF TO ENSURE WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK (BARRING MIDDAY OVC
SKIES AND RAIN) WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER
TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE WAS CHECKED
AGAINST THE 09Z/28 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY
AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05 .


THE DAILIES...
IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE WE`RE PRIMARILY IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REGION THIS 6 DAY PERIOD AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH RAIN.

BASICALLY FOR NOW ITS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FORECAST THIS 6 DAY
PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR EVENING CONVECTION NE PA
AND NW NJ LATER IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW IS CHANCEY AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR THE LURKING QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST... IT MAY DRIFT
CLOSER TO THE SHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT WITH ITS
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING ASHORE BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT DOES APPEAR THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND AS IT DOES...HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE FORECAST BASIS.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL DISSIPATE/WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO SHOWER GROUP FOR THE
DELAWARE VALLEY TAFS THIS EVENING, AND ENDED UP ADDING A TEMPO
THUNDERSTORM GROUP FOR ABE/RDG THIS EVENING. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT
VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO 5SM OR LESS, MAINLY FOR ABE/RDG, SO ADDED
IT IN FOR THESE TWO SITES. THE REST WERE LESS CONFIDENT, SO LEFT
THEM OUT FOR NOW.

WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN,
THEN THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF, AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS MAY BEGIN
SWITCHING TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, AND A SEABREEZE MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG OR
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT,

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS NOW, AND SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THE GUSTS WILL SWITCH FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND DROP OFF SLIGHT, AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL. THE SEAS MAY
REMAIN LONGER ON THE NORTHERN WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS, SO WE LEAVE
THE NORTHERN HALF ENDING AT 6 AM TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.  GOOD WEATHER FOR
BEING ON THE WATERS.

WE ARE MONITORING ONE MODELS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF
OPERATIONAL VERSION STILL DOESNT HAVE IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THIS EVENING FOR
 ANZ430- 431-452>455.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 342
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON 342
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON 342
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 342
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 342
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 342







000
FXUS61 KPHI 281941
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
341 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING INTO NEW ENGLAND THIS EVENING IS SHOVING A COLD
FRONT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL FOLLOW
LATER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. IT THEN MERGES INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM LATE THIS WEEK. THE MEANWHILE THE COLD
FRONT WILL BE LURKING JUST OFF THE COAST AS A STATIONARY FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM TUESDAY MORNING/...
THE COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AND SHOULD
PASS COMPLETELY THROUGH BY MIDNIGHT. A LINE OF SHOWERS AND VERY
ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE FORMED ALONG THE FRONT THIS AFTERNOON.
ALL OF THE GUIDANCE INDICATES THE SHOWERS/THUNDER DISSIPATING AND/OR
WEAKENING AS THEY REACH OUR AREA THIS EVENING AS THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH LIFTS TO OUR NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE ANOTHER SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES MOVE INTO THE AREA ALONG WITH THE COLD
FRONT, SO THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THE SHOWERS COULD MAINTAIN
THEMSELVES ACROSS A PORTION OF THE AREA. THEREFORE WE WILL KEEP
ISOLATED SHOWERS INTO THE EVENING FROM THE DELAWARE VALLEY
NORTHWARD, BUT WE END EVERYTHING BY MIDNIGHT.

AFTER THE SHOWERS END, CLOUDS SHOULD SCATTER OUT OVERNIGHT, BUT HOW
MUCH THEY SCATTER WILL DETERMINE HOW COOL IT GETS TONIGHT. FOR NOW
WE USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE WHICH DROPS EVERYONE
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN LAST NIGHT AND ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY INTO THIS EVENING, BUT THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP
OFF AFTER SUNSET THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WESTERLY WINDS AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT WILL SWITCH TO MORE NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND IT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
A NICE TUESDAY AHEAD AS COOLER, DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE AREA AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. WITH PW VALUES BELOW ONE INCH AND NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES, TUESDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE DRY ACROSS THE
AREA.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER THAN THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS 925/850
MB TEMPS AND THICKNESSES DECREASE INTO TUESDAY. USED A BLEND OF
MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB TEMPS FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY
WHICH ENDS UP BEING SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
500 MB: A LARGE TROUGH IN THE EAST WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN LATE THIS
WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES: ABOUT 5 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WEDNESDAY WARMING TO
NEAR NORMAL THIS COMING WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED THE LONG TERM PERIOD OF THIS
FORECAST IS GENERALLY BASED ON A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/28 NAM/GFS
MOS FOR THE PERIOD TUESDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY NIGHT... THE 12Z/28 GFS
MOS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT AND THEN THEREAFTER (FRIDAY ONWARD)
THE 1522Z/28 WPC GRIDDED GUIDANCE FOR ALL ELEMENTS EXCEPT APPLIED
THE WARMER 12Z/28 MEXMOS TEMPS. ALL THIS WAS CHECKED AGAINST THE
12Z/28 ECMWF TO ENSURE WE`RE IN THE BALLPARK (BARRING MIDDAY OVC
SKIES AND RAIN) WITH ECMWF CYCLICALLY PERSISTENT 18Z 2METER
TEMPERATURES. THE PRECIPITATION PROBABILITY GUIDANCE WAS CHECKED
AGAINST THE 09Z/28 SREF POPS FOR .01 IN 3 HRS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY
AND THEREAFTER THE 12Z/28 GEFS 6HR POPS FOR 0.05 .


THE DAILIES...
IT SORT OF LOOKS LIKE WE`RE PRIMARILY IN A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
REGION THIS 6 DAY PERIOD AND NOT FAVORABLE FOR MUCH RAIN.

BASICALLY FOR NOW ITS A GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER FORECAST THIS 6 DAY
PERIOD.

THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LATE DAY OR EVENING CONVECTION NE PA
AND NW NJ LATER IN THE WEEK BUT FOR NOW IS CHANCEY AND LOW
CONFIDENCE.

AS FOR THE LURKING QUASI STATIONARY ALONG THE COAST... IT MAY DRIFT
CLOSER TO THE SHORE BY THE WEEKEND AS A WARM FRONT WITH ITS
CONVECTION POSSIBLY SPREADING ASHORE BUT CONFIDENCE FOR THIS
SCENARIO IS ALSO BELOW AVERAGE.

IT DOES APPEAR THIS QUASI STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY
DISSIPATE AND AS IT DOES...HIGHER HUMIDITY SHOULD SLOWLY RETURN TO
THE AREA LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

TEMPERATURES AND POPS AS DESCRIBED ABOVE IN THE FORECAST BASIS.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE TAF SITES THROUGH TONIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. A LINE OF SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG A COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THE
SHOWERS/THUNDER WILL DISSIPATE/WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO OUR AREA THIS
EVENING, HOWEVER, WE HAVE INCLUDED A TEMPO SHOWER GROUP FOR THE
DELAWARE VALLEY TAFS THIS EVENING, AND ENDED UP ADDING A TEMPO
THUNDERSTORM GROUP FOR ABE/RDG THIS EVENING. IT`S POSSIBLE THAT
VSBYS MAY BRIEFLY DROP TO 5SM OR LESS, MAINLY FOR ABE/RDG, SO ADDED
IT IN FOR THESE TWO SITES. THE REST WERE LESS CONFIDENT, SO LEFT
THEM OUT FOR NOW.

WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-25 KNOTS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDOWN,
THEN THE GUSTS SHOULD DROP OFF, AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTHWESTERLY
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY. WINDS MAY BEGIN
SWITCHING TO WEST OR SOUTHWEST AGAIN BY LATE TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY
EVENING, AND A SEABREEZE MAY FORM ALONG THE COAST BY THE AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR.
THURSDAY-SATURDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE EACH DAY BUT LOW CONFIDENCE ON OCCURRENCE. PATCHY IFR FOG OR
STRATUS IS POSSIBLE FRI NIGHT,

&&

.MARINE...
THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR THE DELAWARE BAY AND THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS WAS EXTENDED THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT
AS WINDS ARE GUSTING AROUND 25-30 KNOTS NOW, AND SHOULD CONTINUE
INTO THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH, THE GUSTS WILL SWITCH FROM WEST TO NORTHWEST
AND DROP OFF SLIGHT, AND SEAS SHOULD LOWER AS WELL. THE SEAS MAY
REMAIN LONGER ON THE NORTHERN WATERS A FEW MORE HOURS, SO WE LEAVE
THE NORTHERN HALF ENDING AT 6 AM TUESDAY.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY...NO HEADLINES ANTICIPATED.  GOOD WEATHER FOR
BEING ON THE WATERS.

WE ARE MONITORING ONE MODELS OPERATIONAL RUN DEPICTION OF A TROPICAL
SYSTEM IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN FOR NEXT WEEK BUT THE ECMWF
OPERATIONAL VERSION STILL DOESNT HAVE IT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THIS EVENING FOR
 ANZ430- 431-452>455.
 SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 342
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON 342
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON 342
LONG TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 342
AVIATION...DRAG/ROBERTSON 342
MARINE...DRAG/ROBERTSON 342






000
FXUS61 KPHI 281419
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1019 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND
TODAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY, AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER FOR THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVER THE OCEAN WILL DRIFT BACK CLOSE TO THE COAST OVER
THE WEEKEND.


&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE AREA AS THE
INITIAL SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX HAS MOVED TO OUR NORTHEAST. A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA NOW, AND ANOTHER MAY
DRIFT ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE THE MAIN COLD FRONT
PROGRESSES ACROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. THE
MID-LEVEL TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL SPINNING TO OUR
NORTHWEST AS EVIDENT BY SATELLITE DATA WILL CONTINUE LIFTING
NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. IT WILL STILL BE NEARBY DURING THE
PEAK HEATING HOURS TO ALLOW FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS, AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION...ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOULD
REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LIMITS TODAY AS WE ARE NOT EXPECTING A
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. WINDS WILL BECOME GUSTY LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS
FILTERING IN. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO RELAX LATER TONIGHT SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH DECOUPLING TO OCCUR...A WEAK AND SHALLOW INVERSION
MAY FORM ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS. CONTINUED MIXING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF THE TABLE TONIGHT,
THOUGH WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE CAN GIVE THE AIR
CONDITIONERS A BREAK. BLEND OF THE MET/MAV WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY START TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS PW
VALUES DROP TO AN INCH OR LOWER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MAY
RETURN TO 1-1.25 INCHES FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES FOR
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION,
WHILE THE BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE AREA NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK, BUT WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE AND DAYTIME HEATING,
THERE COULD BE ENOUGH DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO CREATE ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EACH
DAY THE CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER,
WE DO NOT HAVE MORE THAN A SLIGHT CHANCE PROBABILITY THROUGH
FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WE GET A MORE SOLID RETURN OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA AS PW VALUES REBOUND O 1.25-1.5 INCHES. WE ALSO HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AFFECTING OUR AREA WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TRYING TO PUSH BACK
CLOSER TO SHOWER, WE MAY HAVE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM.
THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING THIS MORNING, WITH A FEW
AREAS OF MVFR CIGS OCCURRING NOW, MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS. ALL CIGS
SHOULD LIFT TO VFR BY MID-DAY AND WILL REMAIN SO THROUGH THE DAY.
GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS VEERING TOWARDS THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE
POSSIBLE...MOSTLY NORTH AND WEST OF PHL.

TONIGHT...VFR. SHOULD LOSE GUSTS BY LATE THIS EVENING BUT KEEP
HIGHER SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BOTH AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WE CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL OUR WATERS TODAY, THOUGH
IT MAY BE A TAD TOUGHER TO REACH THE 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT NEARS FROM THE
WEST LATER TODAY AND WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST. GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT...UPWARDS OF 25
KNOTS...BETTER CHANCE NORTH.

TONIGHT...EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR OUR NORTHERN TWO ZONES
THROUGH TONIGHT WHERE THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS AND
BETTER VERTICAL TRANSPORT MAY STILL OCCUR. SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT
LONGER TO COME DOWN, EVEN ONCE THE WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, SUBSIDING AND REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431-452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 280806
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
406 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND
LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY, AND
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MAJORITY OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO HEAD
OFFSHORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. THERE STILL
REMAINS ENOUGH INSTABILITY, MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SHOWALTER LEVEL,
FOR MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL BACK IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE TOWARDS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL SHOULD BE NEARBY DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS TO ALLOW FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS, AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION...ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS TODAY AS THE BEST SHEAR AND VEERING WIND
PROFILES EXISTS TO OUR NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOME GUSTY WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING
IN. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO RELAX LATER TONIGHT SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH DECOUPLING TO OCCUR...A WEAK AND SHALLOW INVERSION
MAY FORM ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS. CONTINUED MIXING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF THE TABLE TONIGHT,
THOUGH WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE CAN GIVE THE AIR
CONDITIONERS A BREAK. BLEND OF THE MET/MAV WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY START TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT, BUT
ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT.

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS PW
VALUES DROP TO AN INCH OR LOWER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MAY
RETURN TO 1-1.25 INCHES FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES FOR FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE THE
BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE AREA NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT
WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE AND DAYTIME HEATING, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO CREATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EACH DAY THE CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER, WE DO NOT HAVE MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE PROBABILITY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WE GET A MORE SOLID RETURN OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA AS PW VALUES REBOUND O 1.25-1.5 INCHES. WE ALSO HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AFFECTING OUR AREA WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TRYING TO PUSH BACK
CLOSER TO SHOWER, WE MAY HAVE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM.
THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS MORNING...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO APPROACH MVFR EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL TO OUR EAST WITH A FEW STRAY ONES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. CIGS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PA COULD END UP BEING IFR WITH ALL THE RAIN THAT FELL LAST EVENING,
BUT FOR THE TIME BEING DID NOT HIT THEM THAT HARD.

TODAY...VFR WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS VEERING TOWARDS THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE...MOSTLY NORTH AND WEST OF PHL.

TONIGHT...VFR. SHOULD LOSE GUSTS BY LATE THIS EVENING BUT KEEP
HIGHER SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BOTH AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WE CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL OUR WATERS TODAY, THOUGH
IT MAY BE A TAD TOUGHER TO REACH THE 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT NEARS FROM THE
WEST LATER TODAY AND WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST. GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT...UPWARDS OF 25
KNOTS...BETTER CHANCE NORTH.

TONIGHT...EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR OUR NORTHERN TWO ZONES
THROUGH TONIGHT WHERE THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS AND
BETTER VERTICAL TRANSPORT MAY STILL OCCUR. SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT
LONGER TO COME DOWN, EVEN ONCE THE WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, SUBSIDING AND REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 280806
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
406 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND
LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY, AND
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE MAJORITY OF HEAVIER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES TO HEAD
OFFSHORE WITH THE PASSAGE OF A STRONG MID-LEVEL IMPULSE. THERE STILL
REMAINS ENOUGH INSTABILITY, MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE SHOWALTER LEVEL,
FOR MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.

THE SURFACE COLD FRONT IS STILL WELL BACK IN WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA
AND WILL SLOWLY ADVANCE TOWARDS THE EAST THIS AFTERNOON. MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD POOL SHOULD BE NEARBY DURING THE PEAK
HEATING HOURS TO ALLOW FOR INSTABILITY SHOWERS, AND ISOLATED
CONVECTION...ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW SEVERE LIMITS TODAY AS THE BEST SHEAR AND VEERING WIND
PROFILES EXISTS TO OUR NORTH WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE CENTER OF THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE. WINDS BACK TOWARDS THE WEST LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND BECOME GUSTY WITH A COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS FILTERING
IN. DAYTIME HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER THAN
TODAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/...
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL TAKE A WHILE TO RELAX LATER TONIGHT SO NOT
EXPECTING MUCH DECOUPLING TO OCCUR...A WEAK AND SHALLOW INVERSION
MAY FORM ACROSS THE OUTLYING AREAS. CONTINUED MIXING SHOULD BE
ENOUGH TO KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING OFF THE TABLE TONIGHT,
THOUGH WITH THE COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE CAN GIVE THE AIR
CONDITIONERS A BREAK. BLEND OF THE MET/MAV WAS USED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY START TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT, BUT
ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT.

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS PW
VALUES DROP TO AN INCH OR LOWER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MAY
RETURN TO 1-1.25 INCHES FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES FOR FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE THE
BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE AREA NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT
WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE AND DAYTIME HEATING, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO CREATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EACH DAY THE CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER, WE DO NOT HAVE MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE PROBABILITY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WE GET A MORE SOLID RETURN OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA AS PW VALUES REBOUND O 1.25-1.5 INCHES. WE ALSO HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AFFECTING OUR AREA WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TRYING TO PUSH BACK
CLOSER TO SHOWER, WE MAY HAVE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM.
THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS MORNING...EXPECTING VFR CONDITIONS TO APPROACH MVFR EARLY THIS
MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. MOST OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE WELL TO OUR EAST WITH A FEW STRAY ONES ACROSS
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. CIGS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
PA COULD END UP BEING IFR WITH ALL THE RAIN THAT FELL LAST EVENING,
BUT FOR THE TIME BEING DID NOT HIT THEM THAT HARD.

TODAY...VFR WITH GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS VEERING TOWARDS THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON. SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE...MOSTLY NORTH AND WEST OF PHL.

TONIGHT...VFR. SHOULD LOSE GUSTS BY LATE THIS EVENING BUT KEEP
HIGHER SUSTAINED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH TIGHTER PRESSURE
GRADIENT.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BOTH AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
TODAY...WE CONTINUE THE SMALL CRAFT FOR ALL OUR WATERS TODAY, THOUGH
IT MAY BE A TAD TOUGHER TO REACH THE 5 FOOT SEAS ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
WATERS THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. SURFACE COLD FRONT NEARS FROM THE
WEST LATER TODAY AND WINDS SHIFT TOWARDS THE WEST-NORTHWEST. GUSTS
ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR AHEAD AND BEHIND THE FRONT...UPWARDS OF 25
KNOTS...BETTER CHANCE NORTH.

TONIGHT...EXTENDED THE SMALL CRAFT FOR OUR NORTHERN TWO ZONES
THROUGH TONIGHT WHERE THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT EXISTS AND
BETTER VERTICAL TRANSPORT MAY STILL OCCUR. SEAS WILL TAKE A BIT
LONGER TO COME DOWN, EVEN ONCE THE WINDS VEER TOWARDS THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY-FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING, SUBSIDING AND REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ452>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ450-451.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ430-
     431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...HEAVENER
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON
MARINE...HEAVENER/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 280455
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1255 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND
LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY, AND
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WE HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AT THIS TIME WITH
A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION NOW HEADING INTO SOUTH AND CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS STILL
OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS, SO THEY ARE NOTHING TO SNEEZE AT. THEY
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THERE STILL REMAINS AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE WITH NEGATIVE LIS
AND SHOWALTER INDEXES, SO MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM WEST TO
EAST...WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE ANOMALOUS STRONG 500MB TROF WILL
PASS ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS (SELF DESTRUCT
SUNSHINE) WILL BE REACHED EASY AND EARLY. THE OVERALL FCST CAPE AND
INSTAB ALOFT ON THE BIG THREE MODELS ARE NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDER. OTHER THAN SOME EARLY THUNDER NORTHEAST CWA, WE KEPT IT AS
SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST THE REST OF THE DAY.

STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS APPEARS TOO HIGH IN THE SERN CWA UNLESS
THE COLD FRONT IS 2-4HRS SLOWER THAN PROGGED. WE WERE LOWER THAN GFS
MOS THERE AND CLOSE TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY START TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT, BUT
ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT.

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS PW
VALUES DROP TO AN INCH OR LOWER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MAY
RETURN TO 1-1.25 INCHES FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES FOR FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE THE
BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE AREA NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT
WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE AND DAYTIME HEATING, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO CREATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EACH DAY THE CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER, WE DO NOT HAVE MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE PROBABILITY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WE GET A MORE SOLID RETURN OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA AS PW VALUES REBOUND O 1.25-1.5 INCHES. WE ALSO HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AFFECTING OUR AREA WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TRYING TO PUSH BACK
CLOSER TO SHOWER, WE MAY HAVE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM.
THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS PASSED THROUGH MOST OF OUR I-95
CORRIDOR TERMINALS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE,
BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AS TO WHERE OR WHEN TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER, GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH. IMPROVEMENT TOWARD MORNING
AS PCPN ENDS. THINKING TOO MUCH WIND FOR SGFCNT FOG TO FORM.

MONDAY MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS WITH A CUMULUS BASED CIG OCCURRING.
GUSTY WEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR JULY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD START DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
FCST PERIOD. GREATEST CONFIDENCE NORTH, REASON FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF
KPHL TAF.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BOTH AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR THE
OCEAN WATERS. ONE WILL BE ISSUED FOR DELAWARE BAY FOR MONDAY. FIRST
FOR THE LIKELIHOOD THAT SEAS REACH 5 FEET THIS EVENING AND THEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF NON CONVECTIVE WEST WIND GUSTS REACHING THE CRITERIA
ON DELAWARE BAY AS WELL AS THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BRINGS SIX FOOT SEAS AS IS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS, SHAVING A FOOT OR SO OFF WOULD STILL GET US THERE
TONIGHT. TOUGH NIGHT AS IT IS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY
MORE OF THE GUSTINESS MAY BE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE INLETS AND IN
DELAWARE BAY WITH POSSIBLY LESS GUSTINESS FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
GRADIENT AND WINDS SHOULD START RELAXING LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT, SUBSIDING AND REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 280455
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1255 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE OUT OF PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AND
LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND MONDAY, PULLING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN MOVING INTO THE AREA LATER TUESDAY, AND
REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER FOR THROUGH THE END OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/...
WE HAVE CANCELLED THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AT THIS TIME WITH
A MAJORITY OF THE CONVECTION NOW HEADING INTO SOUTH AND CENTRAL
NEW JERSEY. VERY HEAVY RAINFALL AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS STILL
OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS, SO THEY ARE NOTHING TO SNEEZE AT. THEY
WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE EAST-NORTHEAST DURING THE COURSE
OF THE EARLY MORNING HOURS.

THERE STILL REMAINS AMPLE BOUNDARY LAYER CAPE WITH NEGATIVE LIS
AND SHOWALTER INDEXES, SO MORE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED CONVECTION IS
LIKELY TO OCCUR THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS FROM WEST TO
EAST...WELL AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH 6 PM TUESDAY/...
SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE ANOMALOUS STRONG 500MB TROF WILL
PASS ACROSS OUR CWA ON MONDAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS (SELF DESTRUCT
SUNSHINE) WILL BE REACHED EASY AND EARLY. THE OVERALL FCST CAPE AND
INSTAB ALOFT ON THE BIG THREE MODELS ARE NOT UNSTABLE ENOUGH FOR
THUNDER. OTHER THAN SOME EARLY THUNDER NORTHEAST CWA, WE KEPT IT AS
SHOWERS WITH HIGHEST POPS NORTHWEST THE REST OF THE DAY.

STAT GUIDANCE FOR MAX TEMPS APPEARS TOO HIGH IN THE SERN CWA UNLESS
THE COLD FRONT IS 2-4HRS SLOWER THAN PROGGED. WE WERE LOWER THAN GFS
MOS THERE AND CLOSE TO A STAT GUIDANCE BLEND ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A MOSTLY DRY START TO THE LONG TERM FORECAST, WITH PRECIPITATION
CHANCES INCREASING LATER IN THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS MONDAY EVENING AS THE FRONT
CONTINUES TO PUSH OFFSHORE AND THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT, BUT
ANY PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO END BY MIDNIGHT.

MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MOSTLY DRY AS PW
VALUES DROP TO AN INCH OR LOWER FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, BUT MAY
RETURN TO 1-1.25 INCHES FOR THURSDAY AND NEAR 1.5 INCHES FOR FRIDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION, WHILE THE
BROAD MID/UPPER TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE COUNTRY. THERE AREA NO SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY
IMPULSES THAT ARE FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK, BUT
WITH THE TROUGH IN PLACE AND DAYTIME HEATING, THERE COULD BE ENOUGH
DAYTIME INSTABILITY TO CREATE ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSHOWERS FOR
THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. EACH DAY THE CHANCES INCREASE SLIGHTLY
AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE. HOWEVER, WE DO NOT HAVE MORE THAN A SLIGHT
CHANCE PROBABILITY THROUGH FRIDAY AT THIS TIME.

AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT WEEKEND, WE GET A MORE SOLID RETURN OF MOISTURE
ACROSS THE AREA AS PW VALUES REBOUND O 1.25-1.5 INCHES. WE ALSO HAVE
A BETTER CHANCE OF VORTICITY IMPULSES AFFECTING OUR AREA WITHIN THE
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, AND WITH THE COASTAL FRONT TRYING TO PUSH BACK
CLOSER TO SHOWER, WE MAY HAVE A FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM.
THEREFORE THE PRECIPITATION CHANCES INCREASE INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE FORECAST TO BE CLOSE TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS HAS PASSED THROUGH MOST OF OUR I-95
CORRIDOR TERMINALS AND WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH TOWARDS THE EAST
EARLY THIS MORNING. OVERNIGHT PREVAILING MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING SHOWERS. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE,
BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AS TO WHERE OR WHEN TO INCLUDE. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHTER, GENERALLY FROM THE SOUTH. IMPROVEMENT TOWARD MORNING
AS PCPN ENDS. THINKING TOO MUCH WIND FOR SGFCNT FOG TO FORM.

MONDAY MORNING, VFR CONDITIONS WITH A CUMULUS BASED CIG OCCURRING.
GUSTY WEST WINDS, ESPECIALLY FOR JULY, WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KTS AND GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KTS. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS SHOULD START DEVELOPING TOWARD THE END OF THE CURRENT TAF
FCST PERIOD. GREATEST CONFIDENCE NORTH, REASON FOR NOW LEFT OUT OF
KPHL TAF.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY VFR
THURSDAY-FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR. ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS
POSSIBLE BOTH AFTERNOONS, ESPECIALLY FRIDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED FOR TONIGHT AND MONDAY FOR THE
OCEAN WATERS. ONE WILL BE ISSUED FOR DELAWARE BAY FOR MONDAY. FIRST
FOR THE LIKELIHOOD THAT SEAS REACH 5 FEET THIS EVENING AND THEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF NON CONVECTIVE WEST WIND GUSTS REACHING THE CRITERIA
ON DELAWARE BAY AS WELL AS THE OCEAN WATERS DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY. WAVE WATCH GUIDANCE BRINGS SIX FOOT SEAS AS IS INTO OUR
COASTAL WATERS, SHAVING A FOOT OR SO OFF WOULD STILL GET US THERE
TONIGHT. TOUGH NIGHT AS IT IS WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED. ON MONDAY
MORE OF THE GUSTINESS MAY BE CONCENTRATED AROUND THE INLETS AND IN
DELAWARE BAY WITH POSSIBLY LESS GUSTINESS FARTHER OFFSHORE. THE
GRADIENT AND WINDS SHOULD START RELAXING LATER IN THE DAY ON MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE EARLY
MONDAY NIGHT, SUBSIDING AND REMAINING BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
     ANZ450>455.
     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EDT THIS
     EVENING FOR ANZ430-431.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ROBERTSON
NEAR TERM...HEAVENER
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...ROBERTSON
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON






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