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000
FXUS61 KPHI 290140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH
SUNDAY, HOWEVER IT GENERALLY DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING SYSTEM THOUGH IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN ANOTHER ONE ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A COOL FRONT MAY SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA FROM NEW ENGLAND
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION DURING THE NIGHT. WE
ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.

NEARLY IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE 50S AT MOST SPOTS. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE URBAN
AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST WHERE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WASH, RINSE AND REPEAT! ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA AS THE HIGH SHIFTS JUST TO OUR EAST. CALM WINDS EARLY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BUT
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE, WE SHOULD SEE A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOP ALONG
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF NJ AND DE.

WE WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S WITH THE COASTAL STRIP
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERALL, IT WILL A GREAT LATE
AUGUST DAY FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE
WEST COAST THAT TAKES ON MORE AMPLITUDE WITH TIME. THIS RESULTS IN
A RIDGE THE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST, ALTHOUGH SOME EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER DRIVES EASTWARD. THIS SENDS
SOME ENERGY MIGRATING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AT TIMES,
DESPITE RIDGING MOSTLY DOMINATING. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY
THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO BE SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP WEAKENING WITH AN EASTERN EXTENT /LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH/. IT APPEARS THAT IT MAY BE THE TAILEND OF THE
SHORT WAVE WHICH SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIED TO FROM ABOUT SOUTHEASTERN NEW
YORK ON SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CHC LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN NOT MUCH
LIFT MOVING THROUGH, WITH PERHAPS THE MAIN FORCING BEING TERRAIN
INFLUENCES. WE OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN
THE DEW POINTS. THIS TRANSLATES INTO A HOTTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT EXPECTING OPPRESSIVE
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY SINCE THE DEW POINTS MAY LOWER SOME WITH
PEAK HEATING IN SOME AREAS. THE FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE AXIS
MAINLY TO OUR WEST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWED THE LEFTOVERS
OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER
WITH THE RIDGE OVERALL DOMINATING IT LOOKS LIKE ANY CONVECTION
WOULD BE ISOLATED AND PROBABLY TIED TO INLAND AREAS WHERE TERRAIN
COULD PLAY A ROLE. THE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO MOISTEN UP AT
LEAST SOME WITH VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS FOR MANY AREAS,
HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE
FORCING MECHANISMS. AS A RESULT, WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE FLOW SHOULD BE
LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH
DAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVERALL
REMAINS IN PLACE, HOWEVER A TROUGH AMPLIFYING MOSTLY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES MAY KNOCK THE RIDGE DOWN SOME IN THE NORTHEAST
LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
IS CLOSE BY, A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING NEARBY FRIDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE
ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA AND IT MAY END
UP STALLING THERE DUE TO POTENTIAL BLOCKING FARTHER NORTH AND ALSO
LESS FLOW DOWN SOUTH. WE FAVORED A CONTINUITY/WPC BLEND ATTM WHICH
KEEPS THE AREA DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS
ESPECIALLY INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL INCOMING WEAK FRONT. THE CWA NEEDS THE RAIN,
HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE OVERALL VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY ANTICIPATED.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH ON SATURDAY INCREASING TO 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCAL
FOG LATE. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EACH MORNING,
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM NEAR AND NORTH/WEST OF KRDG AND KABE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...VFR, WITH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS.

WINDS WILL LIGHTEN TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
COMPONENT. A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BECOMING MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. WINDS MAY GUST UP
AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO
3 FEET ACROSS THE OCEAN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
DOMINATES THE WEATHER WITH LIGHT FLOW OVERALL. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
HOWEVER SHOULD INCREASE SOME AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PARTICULARLY NEARSHORE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEA/BAY BREEZES. OVERALL, THE CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE
AND THE WAVE PERIOD AROUND 10 SECONDS IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
THE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE. THE MORE
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATION OF THE DELAWARE BEACHES SHOULD RECEIVE
LESS OF A DIRECT IMPACT FROM THE SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. AS A RESULT,
WE WILL CARRY A LOW RISK THERE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 290140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH
SUNDAY, HOWEVER IT GENERALLY DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING SYSTEM THOUGH IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN ANOTHER ONE ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A COOL FRONT MAY SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA FROM NEW ENGLAND
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION DURING THE NIGHT. WE
ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.

NEARLY IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE 50S AT MOST SPOTS. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE URBAN
AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST WHERE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WASH, RINSE AND REPEAT! ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA AS THE HIGH SHIFTS JUST TO OUR EAST. CALM WINDS EARLY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BUT
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE, WE SHOULD SEE A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOP ALONG
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF NJ AND DE.

WE WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S WITH THE COASTAL STRIP
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERALL, IT WILL A GREAT LATE
AUGUST DAY FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE
WEST COAST THAT TAKES ON MORE AMPLITUDE WITH TIME. THIS RESULTS IN
A RIDGE THE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST, ALTHOUGH SOME EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER DRIVES EASTWARD. THIS SENDS
SOME ENERGY MIGRATING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AT TIMES,
DESPITE RIDGING MOSTLY DOMINATING. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY
THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO BE SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP WEAKENING WITH AN EASTERN EXTENT /LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH/. IT APPEARS THAT IT MAY BE THE TAILEND OF THE
SHORT WAVE WHICH SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIED TO FROM ABOUT SOUTHEASTERN NEW
YORK ON SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CHC LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN NOT MUCH
LIFT MOVING THROUGH, WITH PERHAPS THE MAIN FORCING BEING TERRAIN
INFLUENCES. WE OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN
THE DEW POINTS. THIS TRANSLATES INTO A HOTTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT EXPECTING OPPRESSIVE
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY SINCE THE DEW POINTS MAY LOWER SOME WITH
PEAK HEATING IN SOME AREAS. THE FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE AXIS
MAINLY TO OUR WEST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWED THE LEFTOVERS
OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER
WITH THE RIDGE OVERALL DOMINATING IT LOOKS LIKE ANY CONVECTION
WOULD BE ISOLATED AND PROBABLY TIED TO INLAND AREAS WHERE TERRAIN
COULD PLAY A ROLE. THE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO MOISTEN UP AT
LEAST SOME WITH VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS FOR MANY AREAS,
HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE
FORCING MECHANISMS. AS A RESULT, WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE FLOW SHOULD BE
LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH
DAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVERALL
REMAINS IN PLACE, HOWEVER A TROUGH AMPLIFYING MOSTLY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES MAY KNOCK THE RIDGE DOWN SOME IN THE NORTHEAST
LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
IS CLOSE BY, A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING NEARBY FRIDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE
ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA AND IT MAY END
UP STALLING THERE DUE TO POTENTIAL BLOCKING FARTHER NORTH AND ALSO
LESS FLOW DOWN SOUTH. WE FAVORED A CONTINUITY/WPC BLEND ATTM WHICH
KEEPS THE AREA DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS
ESPECIALLY INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL INCOMING WEAK FRONT. THE CWA NEEDS THE RAIN,
HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE OVERALL VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY ANTICIPATED.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH ON SATURDAY INCREASING TO 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCAL
FOG LATE. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EACH MORNING,
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM NEAR AND NORTH/WEST OF KRDG AND KABE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...VFR, WITH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS.

WINDS WILL LIGHTEN TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
COMPONENT. A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BECOMING MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. WINDS MAY GUST UP
AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO
3 FEET ACROSS THE OCEAN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
DOMINATES THE WEATHER WITH LIGHT FLOW OVERALL. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
HOWEVER SHOULD INCREASE SOME AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PARTICULARLY NEARSHORE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEA/BAY BREEZES. OVERALL, THE CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE
AND THE WAVE PERIOD AROUND 10 SECONDS IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
THE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE. THE MORE
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATION OF THE DELAWARE BEACHES SHOULD RECEIVE
LESS OF A DIRECT IMPACT FROM THE SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. AS A RESULT,
WE WILL CARRY A LOW RISK THERE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH
SUNDAY, HOWEVER IT GENERALLY DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING SYSTEM THOUGH IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN ANOTHER ONE ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A COOL FRONT MAY SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA FROM NEW ENGLAND
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION DURING THE NIGHT. WE
ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.

NEARLY IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE 50S AT MOST SPOTS. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE URBAN
AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST WHERE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WASH, RINSE AND REPEAT! ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA AS THE HIGH SHIFTS JUST TO OUR EAST. CALM WINDS EARLY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BUT
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE, WE SHOULD SEE A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOP ALONG
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF NJ AND DE.

WE WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S WITH THE COASTAL STRIP
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERALL, IT WILL A GREAT LATE
AUGUST DAY FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE
WEST COAST THAT TAKES ON MORE AMPLITUDE WITH TIME. THIS RESULTS IN
A RIDGE THE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST, ALTHOUGH SOME EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER DRIVES EASTWARD. THIS SENDS
SOME ENERGY MIGRATING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AT TIMES,
DESPITE RIDGING MOSTLY DOMINATING. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY
THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO BE SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP WEAKENING WITH AN EASTERN EXTENT /LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH/. IT APPEARS THAT IT MAY BE THE TAILEND OF THE
SHORT WAVE WHICH SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIED TO FROM ABOUT SOUTHEASTERN NEW
YORK ON SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CHC LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN NOT MUCH
LIFT MOVING THROUGH, WITH PERHAPS THE MAIN FORCING BEING TERRAIN
INFLUENCES. WE OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN
THE DEW POINTS. THIS TRANSLATES INTO A HOTTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT EXPECTING OPPRESSIVE
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY SINCE THE DEW POINTS MAY LOWER SOME WITH
PEAK HEATING IN SOME AREAS. THE FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE AXIS
MAINLY TO OUR WEST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWED THE LEFTOVERS
OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER
WITH THE RIDGE OVERALL DOMINATING IT LOOKS LIKE ANY CONVECTION
WOULD BE ISOLATED AND PROBABLY TIED TO INLAND AREAS WHERE TERRAIN
COULD PLAY A ROLE. THE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO MOISTEN UP AT
LEAST SOME WITH VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS FOR MANY AREAS,
HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE
FORCING MECHANISMS. AS A RESULT, WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE FLOW SHOULD BE
LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH
DAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVERALL
REMAINS IN PLACE, HOWEVER A TROUGH AMPLIFYING MOSTLY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES MAY KNOCK THE RIDGE DOWN SOME IN THE NORTHEAST
LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
IS CLOSE BY, A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING NEARBY FRIDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE
ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA AND IT MAY END
UP STALLING THERE DUE TO POTENTIAL BLOCKING FARTHER NORTH AND ALSO
LESS FLOW DOWN SOUTH. WE FAVORED A CONTINUITY/WPC BLEND ATTM WHICH
KEEPS THE AREA DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS
ESPECIALLY INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL INCOMING WEAK FRONT. THE CWA NEEDS THE RAIN,
HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE OVERALL VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY ANTICIPATED.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH ON SATURDAY INCREASING TO 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCAL
FOG LATE. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EACH MORNING,
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM NEAR AND NORTH/WEST OF KRDG AND KABE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...VFR, WITH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS.

WINDS WILL LIGHTEN TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
COMPONENT. A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BECOMING MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. WINDS MAY GUST UP
AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO
3 FEET ACROSS THE OCEAN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
DOMINATES THE WEATHER WITH LIGHT FLOW OVERALL. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
HOWEVER SHOULD INCREASE SOME AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PARTICULARLY NEARSHORE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEA/BAY BREEZES. OVERALL, THE CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE
AND THE WAVE PERIOD AROUND 10 SECONDS IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
THE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE. THE MORE
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATION OF THE DELAWARE BEACHES SHOULD RECEIVE
LESS OF A DIRECT IMPACT FROM THE SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. AS A RESULT,
WE WILL CARRY A LOW RISK THERE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH
SUNDAY, HOWEVER IT GENERALLY DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING SYSTEM THOUGH IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN ANOTHER ONE ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A COOL FRONT MAY SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA FROM NEW ENGLAND
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION DURING THE NIGHT. WE
ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.

NEARLY IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE 50S AT MOST SPOTS. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE URBAN
AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST WHERE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WASH, RINSE AND REPEAT! ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA AS THE HIGH SHIFTS JUST TO OUR EAST. CALM WINDS EARLY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BUT
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE, WE SHOULD SEE A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOP ALONG
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF NJ AND DE.

WE WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S WITH THE COASTAL STRIP
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERALL, IT WILL A GREAT LATE
AUGUST DAY FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE
WEST COAST THAT TAKES ON MORE AMPLITUDE WITH TIME. THIS RESULTS IN
A RIDGE THE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST, ALTHOUGH SOME EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER DRIVES EASTWARD. THIS SENDS
SOME ENERGY MIGRATING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AT TIMES,
DESPITE RIDGING MOSTLY DOMINATING. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY
THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO BE SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP WEAKENING WITH AN EASTERN EXTENT /LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH/. IT APPEARS THAT IT MAY BE THE TAILEND OF THE
SHORT WAVE WHICH SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIED TO FROM ABOUT SOUTHEASTERN NEW
YORK ON SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CHC LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN NOT MUCH
LIFT MOVING THROUGH, WITH PERHAPS THE MAIN FORCING BEING TERRAIN
INFLUENCES. WE OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN
THE DEW POINTS. THIS TRANSLATES INTO A HOTTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT EXPECTING OPPRESSIVE
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY SINCE THE DEW POINTS MAY LOWER SOME WITH
PEAK HEATING IN SOME AREAS. THE FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE AXIS
MAINLY TO OUR WEST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWED THE LEFTOVERS
OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER
WITH THE RIDGE OVERALL DOMINATING IT LOOKS LIKE ANY CONVECTION
WOULD BE ISOLATED AND PROBABLY TIED TO INLAND AREAS WHERE TERRAIN
COULD PLAY A ROLE. THE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO MOISTEN UP AT
LEAST SOME WITH VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS FOR MANY AREAS,
HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE
FORCING MECHANISMS. AS A RESULT, WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE FLOW SHOULD BE
LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH
DAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVERALL
REMAINS IN PLACE, HOWEVER A TROUGH AMPLIFYING MOSTLY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES MAY KNOCK THE RIDGE DOWN SOME IN THE NORTHEAST
LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
IS CLOSE BY, A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING NEARBY FRIDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE
ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA AND IT MAY END
UP STALLING THERE DUE TO POTENTIAL BLOCKING FARTHER NORTH AND ALSO
LESS FLOW DOWN SOUTH. WE FAVORED A CONTINUITY/WPC BLEND ATTM WHICH
KEEPS THE AREA DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS
ESPECIALLY INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL INCOMING WEAK FRONT. THE CWA NEEDS THE RAIN,
HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE OVERALL VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY ANTICIPATED.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH ON SATURDAY INCREASING TO 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCAL
FOG LATE. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EACH MORNING,
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM NEAR AND NORTH/WEST OF KRDG AND KABE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...VFR, WITH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS.

WINDS WILL LIGHTEN TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
COMPONENT. A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BECOMING MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. WINDS MAY GUST UP
AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO
3 FEET ACROSS THE OCEAN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
DOMINATES THE WEATHER WITH LIGHT FLOW OVERALL. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
HOWEVER SHOULD INCREASE SOME AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PARTICULARLY NEARSHORE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEA/BAY BREEZES. OVERALL, THE CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE
AND THE WAVE PERIOD AROUND 10 SECONDS IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
THE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE. THE MORE
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATION OF THE DELAWARE BEACHES SHOULD RECEIVE
LESS OF A DIRECT IMPACT FROM THE SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. AS A RESULT,
WE WILL CARRY A LOW RISK THERE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH
SUNDAY, HOWEVER IT GENERALLY DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING SYSTEM THOUGH IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN ANOTHER ONE ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A COOL FRONT MAY SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA FROM NEW ENGLAND
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION DURING THE NIGHT. WE
ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.

NEARLY IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE 50S AT MOST SPOTS. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE URBAN
AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST WHERE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WASH, RINSE AND REPEAT! ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA AS THE HIGH SHIFTS JUST TO OUR EAST. CALM WINDS EARLY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BUT
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE, WE SHOULD SEE A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOP ALONG
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF NJ AND DE.

WE WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S WITH THE COASTAL STRIP
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERALL, IT WILL A GREAT LATE
AUGUST DAY FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE
WEST COAST THAT TAKES ON MORE AMPLITUDE WITH TIME. THIS RESULTS IN
A RIDGE THE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST, ALTHOUGH SOME EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER DRIVES EASTWARD. THIS SENDS
SOME ENERGY MIGRATING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AT TIMES,
DESPITE RIDGING MOSTLY DOMINATING. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY
THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO BE SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP WEAKENING WITH AN EASTERN EXTENT /LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH/. IT APPEARS THAT IT MAY BE THE TAILEND OF THE
SHORT WAVE WHICH SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIED TO FROM ABOUT SOUTHEASTERN NEW
YORK ON SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CHC LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN NOT MUCH
LIFT MOVING THROUGH, WITH PERHAPS THE MAIN FORCING BEING TERRAIN
INFLUENCES. WE OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN
THE DEW POINTS. THIS TRANSLATES INTO A HOTTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT EXPECTING OPPRESSIVE
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY SINCE THE DEW POINTS MAY LOWER SOME WITH
PEAK HEATING IN SOME AREAS. THE FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE AXIS
MAINLY TO OUR WEST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWED THE LEFTOVERS
OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER
WITH THE RIDGE OVERALL DOMINATING IT LOOKS LIKE ANY CONVECTION
WOULD BE ISOLATED AND PROBABLY TIED TO INLAND AREAS WHERE TERRAIN
COULD PLAY A ROLE. THE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO MOISTEN UP AT
LEAST SOME WITH VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS FOR MANY AREAS,
HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE
FORCING MECHANISMS. AS A RESULT, WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE FLOW SHOULD BE
LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH
DAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVERALL
REMAINS IN PLACE, HOWEVER A TROUGH AMPLIFYING MOSTLY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES MAY KNOCK THE RIDGE DOWN SOME IN THE NORTHEAST
LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
IS CLOSE BY, A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING NEARBY FRIDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE
ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA AND IT MAY END
UP STALLING THERE DUE TO POTENTIAL BLOCKING FARTHER NORTH AND ALSO
LESS FLOW DOWN SOUTH. WE FAVORED A CONTINUITY/WPC BLEND ATTM WHICH
KEEPS THE AREA DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS
ESPECIALLY INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL INCOMING WEAK FRONT. THE CWA NEEDS THE RAIN,
HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE OVERALL VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY ANTICIPATED.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH ON SATURDAY INCREASING TO 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCAL
FOG LATE. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EACH MORNING,
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM NEAR AND NORTH/WEST OF KRDG AND KABE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...VFR, WITH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS.

WINDS WILL LIGHTEN TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
COMPONENT. A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BECOMING MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. WINDS MAY GUST UP
AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO
3 FEET ACROSS THE OCEAN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
DOMINATES THE WEATHER WITH LIGHT FLOW OVERALL. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
HOWEVER SHOULD INCREASE SOME AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PARTICULARLY NEARSHORE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEA/BAY BREEZES. OVERALL, THE CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE
AND THE WAVE PERIOD AROUND 10 SECONDS IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
THE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE. THE MORE
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATION OF THE DELAWARE BEACHES SHOULD RECEIVE
LESS OF A DIRECT IMPACT FROM THE SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. AS A RESULT,
WE WILL CARRY A LOW RISK THERE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH
SUNDAY, HOWEVER IT GENERALLY DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF
NEXT WEEK. A WEAKENING SYSTEM THOUGH IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN ANOTHER ONE ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. A COOL FRONT MAY SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA FROM NEW ENGLAND
LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER OUR REGION DURING THE NIGHT. WE
ARE ANTICIPATING A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND.

NEARLY IDEAL RADIATING CONDITIONS SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO
DROP INTO THE 50S AT MOST SPOTS. THE EXCEPTIONS WILL BE URBAN
AREAS AND LOCATIONS NEAR THE COAST WHERE MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WASH, RINSE AND REPEAT! ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA AS THE HIGH SHIFTS JUST TO OUR EAST. CALM WINDS EARLY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BUT
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE, WE SHOULD SEE A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOP ALONG
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF NJ AND DE.

WE WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
HIGHER TERRAIN MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S WITH THE COASTAL STRIP
REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERALL, IT WILL A GREAT LATE
AUGUST DAY FOR THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE
WEST COAST THAT TAKES ON MORE AMPLITUDE WITH TIME. THIS RESULTS IN
A RIDGE THE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST, ALTHOUGH SOME EMBEDDED SHORT
WAVES MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER DRIVES EASTWARD. THIS SENDS
SOME ENERGY MIGRATING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AT TIMES,
DESPITE RIDGING MOSTLY DOMINATING. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY
THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL
COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO BE SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST,
HOWEVER IT MAY END UP WEAKENING WITH AN EASTERN EXTENT /LINGERING
SURFACE TROUGH/. IT APPEARS THAT IT MAY BE THE TAILEND OF THE
SHORT WAVE WHICH SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIED TO FROM ABOUT SOUTHEASTERN NEW
YORK ON SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CHC LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN NOT MUCH
LIFT MOVING THROUGH, WITH PERHAPS THE MAIN FORCING BEING TERRAIN
INFLUENCES. WE OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
OF WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN
THE DEW POINTS. THIS TRANSLATES INTO A HOTTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA, HOWEVER WE ARE NOT EXPECTING OPPRESSIVE
CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY SINCE THE DEW POINTS MAY LOWER SOME WITH
PEAK HEATING IN SOME AREAS. THE FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO
ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGHER
AMPLITUDE RIDGE OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE AXIS
MAINLY TO OUR WEST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWED THE LEFTOVERS
OF A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE VICINITY DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER
WITH THE RIDGE OVERALL DOMINATING IT LOOKS LIKE ANY CONVECTION
WOULD BE ISOLATED AND PROBABLY TIED TO INLAND AREAS WHERE TERRAIN
COULD PLAY A ROLE. THE AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO MOISTEN UP AT
LEAST SOME WITH VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS FOR MANY AREAS,
HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE
FORCING MECHANISMS. AS A RESULT, WE JUST KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS
TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST. THE FLOW SHOULD BE
LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH
DAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVERALL
REMAINS IN PLACE, HOWEVER A TROUGH AMPLIFYING MOSTLY ACROSS THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES MAY KNOCK THE RIDGE DOWN SOME IN THE NORTHEAST
LATER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
IS CLOSE BY, A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING NEARBY FRIDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE
ERIKA IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA AND IT MAY END
UP STALLING THERE DUE TO POTENTIAL BLOCKING FARTHER NORTH AND ALSO
LESS FLOW DOWN SOUTH. WE FAVORED A CONTINUITY/WPC BLEND ATTM WHICH
KEEPS THE AREA DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS
ESPECIALLY INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING DUE
TO THE POTENTIAL INCOMING WEAK FRONT. THE CWA NEEDS THE RAIN,
HOWEVER IT LOOKS LIKE OVERALL VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY ANTICIPATED.

A LIGHT AND VARIABLE WIND OVERNIGHT SHOULD SETTLE INTO THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH ON SATURDAY INCREASING TO 4 TO 8 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCAL
FOG LATE. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EACH MORNING,
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM NEAR AND NORTH/WEST OF KRDG AND KABE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...VFR, WITH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS.

WINDS WILL LIGHTEN TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST
COMPONENT. A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BECOMING MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. WINDS MAY GUST UP
AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO
3 FEET ACROSS THE OCEAN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY
DOMINATES THE WEATHER WITH LIGHT FLOW OVERALL. A SOUTHERLY FLOW
HOWEVER SHOULD INCREASE SOME AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS PARTICULARLY NEARSHORE WITH THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SEA/BAY BREEZES. OVERALL, THE CONDITIONS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL WITH WAVE HEIGHTS IN THE 2 TO 3 FOOT RANGE
AND THE WAVE PERIOD AROUND 10 SECONDS IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY.
THE CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY SHORE. THE MORE
NORTH TO SOUTH ORIENTATION OF THE DELAWARE BEACHES SHOULD RECEIVE
LESS OF A DIRECT IMPACT FROM THE SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. AS A RESULT,
WE WILL CARRY A LOW RISK THERE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281925
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
325 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY,
HOWEVER IT GENERALLY DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. A WEAKENING SYSTEM THOUGH IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, THEN ANOTHER ONE ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COOL
FRONT MAY SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA FROM NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A GORGEOUS NIGHT IN THE WORKS AS THE CUMULUS AROUND THE REGION
DISSIPATES AND GIVES WAY TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD AND WINDS WILL DIE OFF ONCE THE SUN
STARTS TO SET. LIGHT WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS MEANS WE WILL
RADIATIONALLY COOL VERY EFFECTIVELY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 50S AGAIN WITH SOME POSSIBLE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. COASTAL LOCATIONS AND URBAN AREAS MIGHT ONLY DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WASH, RINSE AND REPEAT! ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA AS THE HIGH SHIFTS JUST TO OUR EAST. CALM WINDS EARLY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BUT
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE, WE SHOULD SEE A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOP ALONG
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF NJ AND DE.

WE WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S WITH THE COASTAL STRIP REMAINING
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERALL, IT WILL A GREAT LATE AUGUST DAY FOR
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE
WEST COAST THAT TAKES ON MORE AMPLITUDE WITH TIME. THIS RESULTS IN A
RIDGE THE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST, ALTHOUGH SOME EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER DRIVES EASTWARD. THIS SENDS SOME
ENERGY MIGRATING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AT TIMES, DESPITE
RIDGING MOSTLY DOMINATING. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
BE SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST, HOWEVER IT
MAY END UP WEAKENING WITH AN EASTERN EXTENT /LINGERING SURFACE
TROUGH/. IT APPEARS THAT IT MAY BE THE TAILEND OF THE SHORT WAVE
WHICH SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIED TO FROM ABOUT SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK ON
SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CHC LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN NOT MUCH LIFT MOVING
THROUGH, WITH PERHAPS THE MAIN FORCING BEING TERRAIN INFLUENCES. WE
OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS.
THIS TRANSLATES INTO A HOTTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
HOWEVER WE ARE NOT EXPECTING OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY SINCE
THE DEW POINTS MAY LOWER SOME WITH PEAK HEATING IN SOME AREAS. THE
FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE AXIS MAINLY TO OUR
WEST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWED THE LEFTOVERS OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IN THE VICINITY DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE
OVERALL DOMINATING IT LOOKS LIKE ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE ISOLATED
AND PROBABLY TIED TO INLAND AREAS WHERE TERRAIN COULD PLAY A ROLE.
THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO MOISTEN UP AT LEAST SOME WITH VERY WARM
TO HOT CONDITIONS FOR MANY AREAS, HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ANY PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS. AS A RESULT, WE
JUST KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST. THE FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVERALL REMAINS
IN PLACE, HOWEVER A TROUGH AMPLIFYING MOSTLY ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MAY KNOCK THE RIDGE DOWN SOME IN THE NORTHEAST LATER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS CLOSE
BY, A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING NEARBY FRIDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA AND IT MAY END UP STALLING
THERE DUE TO POTENTIAL BLOCKING FARTHER NORTH AND ALSO LESS FLOW
DOWN SOUTH. WE FAVORED A CONTINUITY/WPC BLEND ATTM WHICH KEEPS THE
AREA DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ESPECIALLY
INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL INCOMING WEAK FRONT. THE CWA NEEDS THE RAIN, HOWEVER IT
LOOKS LIKE OVERALL VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE AREA TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE AS THE SUN SETS AND SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS THE HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. WINDS
WILL PICK UP AROUND 15Z ACROSS THE TERMINALS OUT OF THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST. WINDS MAY TURN MORE TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE COAST,
AFFECTING KACY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR BUT
SOME CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY,
DISSIPATING LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCAL
FOG LATE. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EACH MORNING, OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR
AND NORTH/WEST OF KRDG AND KABE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...VFR, WITH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS.

WINDS WILL LIGHTEN TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT. A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BECOMING MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. WINDS MAY GUST UP AROUND 15
TO 20 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET
ACROSS THE OCEAN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATES
THE WEATHER WITH LIGHT FLOW OVERALL. A SOUTHERLY FLOW HOWEVER SHOULD
INCREASE SOME AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS PARTICULARLY NEARSHORE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA/BAY
BREEZES. OVERALL, THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281925
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
325 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS OUR REGION WILL SHIFT OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY,
HOWEVER IT GENERALLY DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK. A WEAKENING SYSTEM THOUGH IS FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY, THEN ANOTHER ONE ARRIVES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. A COOL
FRONT MAY SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA FROM NEW ENGLAND LATE WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
A GORGEOUS NIGHT IN THE WORKS AS THE CUMULUS AROUND THE REGION
DISSIPATES AND GIVES WAY TO CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT OVERHEAD AND WINDS WILL DIE OFF ONCE THE SUN
STARTS TO SET. LIGHT WINDS WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUDS MEANS WE WILL
RADIATIONALLY COOL VERY EFFECTIVELY. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP DOWN
INTO THE 50S AGAIN WITH SOME POSSIBLE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. COASTAL LOCATIONS AND URBAN AREAS MIGHT ONLY DROP INTO THE
LOW TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
WASH, RINSE AND REPEAT! ANOTHER BEAUTIFUL DAY ACROSS OUR FORECAST
AREA AS THE HIGH SHIFTS JUST TO OUR EAST. CALM WINDS EARLY WILL
GIVE WAY TO A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY BUT
WIND SPEEDS WILL REMAIN AROUND 10 MPH OR LESS. WITH LIGHT WINDS IN
PLACE, WE SHOULD SEE A MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FLOW DEVELOP ALONG
THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF NJ AND DE.

WE WILL REMAIN HIGH AND DRY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING
INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THE HIGHER
TERRAIN MAY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 70S WITH THE COASTAL STRIP REMAINING
IN THE LOW TO MID 80S. OVERALL, IT WILL A GREAT LATE AUGUST DAY FOR
THE REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH NEAR THE
WEST COAST THAT TAKES ON MORE AMPLITUDE WITH TIME. THIS RESULTS IN A
RIDGE THE BUILDS ACROSS THE EAST, ALTHOUGH SOME EMBEDDED SHORT WAVES
MOSTLY ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER DRIVES EASTWARD. THIS SENDS SOME
ENERGY MIGRATING FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE NORTHEAST AT TIMES, DESPITE
RIDGING MOSTLY DOMINATING. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FOR SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE/CONTINUITY THEREAFTER. SOME
ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH
OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO
BE SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE NORTHEAST, HOWEVER IT
MAY END UP WEAKENING WITH AN EASTERN EXTENT /LINGERING SURFACE
TROUGH/. IT APPEARS THAT IT MAY BE THE TAILEND OF THE SHORT WAVE
WHICH SOME GUIDANCE IS SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON TIED TO FROM ABOUT SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK ON
SOUTHWESTWARD. THE CHC LOOKS RATHER LOW GIVEN NOT MUCH LIFT MOVING
THROUGH, WITH PERHAPS THE MAIN FORCING BEING TERRAIN INFLUENCES. WE
OPTED TO GO WITH A DRY FORECAST. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR IS
EXPECTED TO OCCUR WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS.
THIS TRANSLATES INTO A HOTTER SUNDAY AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
HOWEVER WE ARE NOT EXPECTING OPPRESSIVE CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY SINCE
THE DEW POINTS MAY LOWER SOME WITH PEAK HEATING IN SOME AREAS. THE
FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE
RIDGE OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME FRAME WITH THE AXIS MAINLY TO OUR
WEST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SHOWED THE LEFTOVERS OF A SHORT WAVE
TROUGH IN THE VICINITY DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER WITH THE RIDGE
OVERALL DOMINATING IT LOOKS LIKE ANY CONVECTION WOULD BE ISOLATED
AND PROBABLY TIED TO INLAND AREAS WHERE TERRAIN COULD PLAY A ROLE.
THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO MOISTEN UP AT LEAST SOME WITH VERY WARM
TO HOT CONDITIONS FOR MANY AREAS, HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE ANY PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE FORCING MECHANISMS. AS A RESULT, WE
JUST KEPT SLIGHT CHC POPS TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE FAR
NORTHWEST. THE FLOW SHOULD BE LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT EACH DAY.

FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVERALL REMAINS
IN PLACE, HOWEVER A TROUGH AMPLIFYING MOSTLY ACROSS THE CANADIAN
MARITIMES MAY KNOCK THE RIDGE DOWN SOME IN THE NORTHEAST LATER
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. WHILE HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE IS CLOSE
BY, A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY BEFORE WEAKENING NEARBY FRIDAY. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA IS
FORECAST TO BE IN THE VICINITY OF FLORIDA AND IT MAY END UP STALLING
THERE DUE TO POTENTIAL BLOCKING FARTHER NORTH AND ALSO LESS FLOW
DOWN SOUTH. WE FAVORED A CONTINUITY/WPC BLEND ATTM WHICH KEEPS THE
AREA DRY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME SLIGHT CHC POPS ESPECIALLY
INLAND WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING DUE TO THE
POTENTIAL INCOMING WEAK FRONT. THE CWA NEEDS THE RAIN, HOWEVER IT
LOOKS LIKE OVERALL VERY WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AT THE AREA TERMINALS
THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

TONIGHT...WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE ACROSS THE REGION AS
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA. CUMULUS CLOUDS AROUND THIS
AFTERNOON WILL DISSIPATE AS THE SUN SETS AND SKIES SHOULD BE CLEAR
OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY...ANOTHER QUIET DAY AS THE HIGH REMAINS IN CONTROL. WINDS
WILL PICK UP AROUND 15Z ACROSS THE TERMINALS OUT OF THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST. WINDS MAY TURN MORE TO SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE COAST,
AFFECTING KACY DURING THE AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL START OFF CLEAR BUT
SOME CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN THROUGH THE DAY,
DISSIPATING LATE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...VFR OVERALL, HOWEVER THERE IS A CHANCE FOR LOCAL
FOG LATE. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.

SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. AN ISOLATED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING IN THE EVENING.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EACH MORNING, OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR. THERE COULD BE AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM NEAR
AND NORTH/WEST OF KRDG AND KABE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...VFR, WITH AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
POSSIBLE.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON THE AREA WATERS.

WINDS WILL LIGHTEN TONIGHT WITH A SLIGHT SOUTH OR SOUTHEAST
COMPONENT. A SHIFT TO THE SOUTHWEST IS EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY WITH
WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS...BECOMING MORE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DURING
THE AFTERNOON AS A SEA BREEZE DEVELOPS. WINDS MAY GUST UP AROUND 15
TO 20 KNOTS INTO SATURDAY EVENING. SEAS WILL REMAIN 2 TO 3 FEET
ACROSS THE OCEAN.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATES
THE WEATHER WITH LIGHT FLOW OVERALL. A SOUTHERLY FLOW HOWEVER SHOULD
INCREASE SOME AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS PARTICULARLY NEARSHORE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA/BAY
BREEZES. OVERALL, THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 281338
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PA AND
CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING. SOME STRATO-CU THIS MORNING HAS LARGELY
DISSIPATED AND WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY ACROSS THE REGION.

THERE SHOULD ALSO BE LESS OF A DIURNAL CU FIELD TODAY THAN IN
RECENT DAYS OWING TO STRONGER SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. MAX
TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS A RESULT.
THE STRETCH OF COMFORTABLE LATE AUGUST WEATHER CONTINUES WITH
MODERATE TEMPS AND LOW DEWPOINTS TODAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK AND NWLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD TODAY. THUS, WE CAN EXPECT THE SEA-BREEZE
FRONT TO PROGRESS A BIT FARTHER INLAND TODAY THAN IT DID YESTERDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.
TONIGHT MAY WIND UP BEING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK BUT PROBABLY
ONLY BY A DEGREE OR TWO. TOOK THE SAME APPROACH FOR FORECASTING MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT AS WAS DONE THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHT, WHICH HAS WORKED
OUT WELL: GO SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
AND RURAL AREAS. FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
POCONOS TO THE MID 60S IN DOWNTOWN PHILA AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SAT THRU MONDAY NIGHT...A DRY PERIOD...BY IN LARGE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE. THE ONLY MENTION OF PCPN IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A SMALL
CHC FOR AN TSTM MONDAY ACROSS THE WRN MOST PART OF THE CWA. CONFID
IN THIS IS RATHER LOW ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS AROUND
90 ACROSS THE METRO AREAS POSSIBLE SUN AND MON.

TUE THRU THU...THERE IS A MENTION OF A SHOWER OR TSTM EACH OF THESE
DAYS...SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE
AREA BEHIND THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. A UPPER VORT MAX WILL
BE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS PA AND THEN NJ/DE BY MIDWEEK. THIS MAY
TRIGGER SOME TSTM ACTIVITY WITH PLENTY OF HEAT/HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOW 90S EXPECTED EACH DAY OVER THE METRO
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT NW WINDS 5 KT OR LESS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE 5-10 KT DURING THE DAY. NEARLY CALM WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU TUE...VFR MOST OF THE TIME. PATCHY PRE-DAWN FOG POSSIBLE
    IN RURAL AREAS. WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 5-10 KT
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDDAY. S-SELY WINDS
WILL ENSUE ONCE A SEA-BREEZE FORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUB-SCA WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. FAIR WEATHER. A FEW
ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 281338
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1024 MB SURFACE HIGH REMAINS CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PA AND
CENTRAL NY THIS MORNING. SOME STRATO-CU THIS MORNING HAS LARGELY
DISSIPATED AND WE SHOULD BE MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY ACROSS THE REGION.

THERE SHOULD ALSO BE LESS OF A DIURNAL CU FIELD TODAY THAN IN
RECENT DAYS OWING TO STRONGER SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. MAX
TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS A RESULT.
THE STRETCH OF COMFORTABLE LATE AUGUST WEATHER CONTINUES WITH
MODERATE TEMPS AND LOW DEWPOINTS TODAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK AND NWLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD TODAY. THUS, WE CAN EXPECT THE SEA-BREEZE
FRONT TO PROGRESS A BIT FARTHER INLAND TODAY THAN IT DID YESTERDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.
TONIGHT MAY WIND UP BEING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK BUT PROBABLY
ONLY BY A DEGREE OR TWO. TOOK THE SAME APPROACH FOR FORECASTING MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT AS WAS DONE THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHT, WHICH HAS WORKED
OUT WELL: GO SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
AND RURAL AREAS. FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
POCONOS TO THE MID 60S IN DOWNTOWN PHILA AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SAT THRU MONDAY NIGHT...A DRY PERIOD...BY IN LARGE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE. THE ONLY MENTION OF PCPN IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A SMALL
CHC FOR AN TSTM MONDAY ACROSS THE WRN MOST PART OF THE CWA. CONFID
IN THIS IS RATHER LOW ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS AROUND
90 ACROSS THE METRO AREAS POSSIBLE SUN AND MON.

TUE THRU THU...THERE IS A MENTION OF A SHOWER OR TSTM EACH OF THESE
DAYS...SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE
AREA BEHIND THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. A UPPER VORT MAX WILL
BE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS PA AND THEN NJ/DE BY MIDWEEK. THIS MAY
TRIGGER SOME TSTM ACTIVITY WITH PLENTY OF HEAT/HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOW 90S EXPECTED EACH DAY OVER THE METRO
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT NW WINDS 5 KT OR LESS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE 5-10 KT DURING THE DAY. NEARLY CALM WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU TUE...VFR MOST OF THE TIME. PATCHY PRE-DAWN FOG POSSIBLE
    IN RURAL AREAS. WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 5-10 KT
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDDAY. S-SELY WINDS
WILL ENSUE ONCE A SEA-BREEZE FORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUB-SCA WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. FAIR WEATHER. A FEW
ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN/MEOLA
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 280739
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PA AND
CENTRAL NY EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF STRATOCU OUT TOWARD READING
AND THE DC AREA WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN PA AND THE
EASTERN SHORE OF MD EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THRU. THIS MAY BRIEFLY KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING BEFORE SUNRISE
IN THESE WESTERN ZONES BUT REGARDLESS IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL
START TO THE DAY...JUST LIKE IT HAS BEEN EACH DAY THIS WEEK.

LEFTOVER HI-BASED STRATOCU SHOULD ERODE MID MORNING IN CONCERT WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING OFFSHORE. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE LESS OF
A DIURNAL CU FIELD TODAY THAN IN RECENT DAYS OWING TO STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. MAX TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS A RESULT. THE STRETCH OF COMFORTABLE LATE
AUGUST WEATHER CONTINUES WITH MODERATE TEMPS AND LOW DEWPOINTS TODAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK AND NWLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD TODAY. THUS, WE CAN EXPECT THE SEA-BREEZE
FRONT TO PROGRESS A BIT FARTHER INLAND TODAY THAN IT DID YESTERDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.
TONIGHT MAY WIND UP BEING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK BUT PROBABLY
ONLY BY A DEGREE OR TWO. TOOK THE SAME APPROACH FOR FORECASTING MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT AS WAS DONE THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHT, WHICH HAS WORKED
OUT WELL: GO SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
AND RURAL AREAS. FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
POCONOS TO THE MID 60S IN DOWNTOWN PHILA AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SAT THRU MONDAY NIGHT...A DRY PERIOD...BY IN LARGE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE. THE ONLY MENTION OF PCPN IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A SMALL
CHC FOR AN TSTM MONDAY ACROSS THE WRN MOST PART OF THE CWA. CONFID
IN THIS IS RATHER LOW ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS AROUND
90 ACROSS THE METRO AREAS POSSIBLE SUN AND MON.

TUE THRU THU...THERE IS A MENTION OF A SHOWER OR TSTM EACH OF THESE
DAYS...SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE
AREA BEHIND THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. A UPPER VORT MAX WILL
BE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS PA AND THEN NJ/DE BY MIDWEEK. THIS MAY
TRIGGER SOME TSTM ACTIVITY WITH PLENTY OF HEAT/HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOW 90S EXPECTED EACH DAY OVER THE METRO
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT NW WINDS 5 KT OR LESS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE 5-10 KT DURING THE DAY. NEARLY CALM WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU TUE...VFR MOST OF THE TIME. PATCHY PRE-DAWN FOG POSSIBLE
    IN RURAL AREAS. WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 5-10 KT
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDDAY. S-SELY WINDS
WILL ENSUE ONCE A SEA-BREEZE FORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUB-SCA WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. FAIR WEATHER. A FEW
ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 280739
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
339 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT AND
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE SATURDAY. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO INFLUENCE THE
WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE REGION NEXT TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A 1023 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER NORTH-CENTRAL PA AND
CENTRAL NY EARLY THIS MORNING. A BAND OF STRATOCU OUT TOWARD READING
AND THE DC AREA WILL ADVANCE EASTWARD INTO EASTERN PA AND THE
EASTERN SHORE OF MD EARLY THIS MORNING AS A WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES THRU. THIS MAY BRIEFLY KEEP TEMPS FROM FALLING BEFORE SUNRISE
IN THESE WESTERN ZONES BUT REGARDLESS IT WILL BE A SEASONABLY COOL
START TO THE DAY...JUST LIKE IT HAS BEEN EACH DAY THIS WEEK.

LEFTOVER HI-BASED STRATOCU SHOULD ERODE MID MORNING IN CONCERT WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH PROGRESSING OFFSHORE. THERE SHOULD ALSO BE LESS OF
A DIURNAL CU FIELD TODAY THAN IN RECENT DAYS OWING TO STRONGER
SUBSIDENCE UNDERNEATH THE HIGH. MAX TEMPS MAY BE A DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AS A RESULT. THE STRETCH OF COMFORTABLE LATE
AUGUST WEATHER CONTINUES WITH MODERATE TEMPS AND LOW DEWPOINTS TODAY.

THE PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BE WEAK AND NWLY WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH
THE HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD TODAY. THUS, WE CAN EXPECT THE SEA-BREEZE
FRONT TO PROGRESS A BIT FARTHER INLAND TODAY THAN IT DID YESTERDAY
AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD, RESULTING IN CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.
TONIGHT MAY WIND UP BEING THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE WEEK BUT PROBABLY
ONLY BY A DEGREE OR TWO. TOOK THE SAME APPROACH FOR FORECASTING MIN
TEMPS TONIGHT AS WAS DONE THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHT, WHICH HAS WORKED
OUT WELL: GO SLIGHTLY BELOW MOS GUIDANCE IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
AND RURAL AREAS. FORECAST LOWS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 40S IN THE
POCONOS TO THE MID 60S IN DOWNTOWN PHILA AND ALONG THE COAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SAT THRU MONDAY NIGHT...A DRY PERIOD...BY IN LARGE...AS HIGH
PRESSURE CRESTS OVER THE AREA FRI NIGHT/SATURDAY AND THEN MOVES
OFFSHORE. THE ONLY MENTION OF PCPN IN THIS PERIOD WILL BE A SMALL
CHC FOR AN TSTM MONDAY ACROSS THE WRN MOST PART OF THE CWA. CONFID
IN THIS IS RATHER LOW ATTM. TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. HIGHS AROUND
90 ACROSS THE METRO AREAS POSSIBLE SUN AND MON.

TUE THRU THU...THERE IS A MENTION OF A SHOWER OR TSTM EACH OF THESE
DAYS...SOMEWHERE IN THE CWA. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVER THE
AREA BEHIND THE OFFSHORE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM. A UPPER VORT MAX WILL
BE SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS PA AND THEN NJ/DE BY MIDWEEK. THIS MAY
TRIGGER SOME TSTM ACTIVITY WITH PLENTY OF HEAT/HUMIDITY. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH LOW 90S EXPECTED EACH DAY OVER THE METRO
AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. LIGHT NW WINDS 5 KT OR LESS EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL BE 5-10 KT DURING THE DAY. NEARLY CALM WINDS EXPECTED
TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SAT THRU TUE...VFR MOST OF THE TIME. PATCHY PRE-DAWN FOG POSSIBLE
    IN RURAL AREAS. WIDELY SCT TSTMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS BELOW SCA LEVELS TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 5-10 KT
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY MIDDAY. S-SELY WINDS
WILL ENSUE ONCE A SEA-BREEZE FORMS THIS AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
SUB-SCA WINDS/SEAS EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD. FAIR WEATHER. A FEW
ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE TUE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 280138
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY,
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING COOL FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY SLIDE ACROSS
OUR AREA TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD NEARBY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER LAKE ERIE AND VICINITY THIS
EVENING. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

THE LAST OF THE STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY ANTICIPATED. A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE
FLOW IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 5OS AND LOWER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EASE ACROSS OUR CWA. THE TRANSITION
TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER SLOWLY STARTS ON FRIDAY. STILL
ANOTHER SPECTACULAR LATE AUGUST DAY. THE PREDICTED CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT SUPPOSE TO BE REACHED TIL THE AFTERNOON AND
WITH LESS OF AN ANTECEDENT MOISTURE POOL BETWEEN 925MB AND 850MB
FORECASTING LESS CU THAN TODAY. THE 250MB JET WILL BE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST, SO NO JET STREAM CIRRUS PROBLEMS. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTS A 1-3F BUMP IN MAX
TEMPS FROM TODAY. THIS IS MUCH CLOSER TO NAM MOS THAN THE COOLER
GFS MOS WHERE THE STAT GUIDANCE PARTS WAYS ON FRIDAY.

OVERALL LIGHT WIND PATTERN WITH THE SEA AND BAY BREEZE MAKING
MORE OF AN INLAND ADVANCE THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WITH AN INITIAL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE TRAVERSING THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, HOWEVER THIS
FEATURE MAY END UP WEAKENING AS IT GETS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING WEST AND NORTH SOME. THE LEFTOVERS
OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL BE ASSISTED
BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME VARIATIONS WITHIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE. OVERALL, CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER
FOR OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME IS ANTICIPATED.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER IT
MAY END UP WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS FEATURE AS IT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY BEYOND, HOWEVER WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE TENDING
TO BUILD SOME AND EVEN EXPAND A BIT WESTWARD, THIS FEATURE SHOULD
NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER ESPECIALLY
SINCE IT LOOKS TO APPROACH SLOWLY. THE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT MAY BE LATE SUNDAY AS COME CONVECTION UPSTREAM WITHIN THE
LINGERING UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS COULD SPILL INTO OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR EACH
DAY WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS AS WELL. THE
LATTER SHOULD BE MORE NOTICEABLE DURING SUNDAY AS THE SOUTHERN
FLOW IS MORE ESTABLISHED THEN, ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE RETURN DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE SUBSTANTIAL.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH MIGRATES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE AXIS MAINLY TO OUR WEST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN SHOWING THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MIGRATING OVERHEAD
DURING THIS TIME. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN A MOISTENING AIR MASS,
HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE
FORCING MECHANISM. THEREFORE, WE WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, VERY WARM TO HOT AND HUMID FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
FLOW LOOKS LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL WITH RIDGING GENERALLY HOLDING. THIS KEEPS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CLOSE BY, WITH A BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN IN
PLACE. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAY BE LURKING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST, HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE SOME
HINTS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS WEAK AND
BYPASSES THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH, HOWEVER THAT WOULD BE INTO THE RIDGE
OVERALL. THE TROUGH OUT WEST WILL ASSIST IN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH, THEREFORE MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FLOW
ACROSS THE EAST. FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA, VISIT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTERS WEB SITE.
OTHER THAN A RATHER LOW CHC FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, NO
REAL ORGANIZED TRIGGERS APPEAR TO BE PRESENT ATTM FOR RAIN CHCS
WHICH THE AREA NEEDS. THE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH PERHAPS SOME RELAXATION IF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS ABLE TO KNOCK THE HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES
DOWN SOME FOR A TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY.

A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
SHOULD BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SEA BREEZE FRONT MAY REACH KACY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT
NIGHT, INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EACH MORNING,
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
AROUND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT, THE GENERALLY NORTHERLY GRADIENT WIND AROUND THE
SURFACE HIGH IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

ON FRIDAY, WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PASSING ACROSS THE MARINE
WATERS, WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER WITH MORE VARIABILITY IN
DIRECTION AS THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PROGRESS. THEN A
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
DEVELOP. THIS WILL LIKELY ALSO START WORKING ITS WAY INTO DELAWARE
BAY LATE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATES
THE WEATHER WITH LIGHTER FLOW. A SOUTHERLY FLOW HOWEVER SHOULD
INCREASE SOME AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS PARTICULARLY NEARSHORE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEA/BAY BREEZES. OVERALL, THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE



000
FXUS61 KPHI 280138
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY,
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING COOL FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY SLIDE ACROSS
OUR AREA TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD NEARBY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER LAKE ERIE AND VICINITY THIS
EVENING. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

THE LAST OF THE STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY ANTICIPATED. A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE
FLOW IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 5OS AND LOWER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EASE ACROSS OUR CWA. THE TRANSITION
TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER SLOWLY STARTS ON FRIDAY. STILL
ANOTHER SPECTACULAR LATE AUGUST DAY. THE PREDICTED CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT SUPPOSE TO BE REACHED TIL THE AFTERNOON AND
WITH LESS OF AN ANTECEDENT MOISTURE POOL BETWEEN 925MB AND 850MB
FORECASTING LESS CU THAN TODAY. THE 250MB JET WILL BE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST, SO NO JET STREAM CIRRUS PROBLEMS. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTS A 1-3F BUMP IN MAX
TEMPS FROM TODAY. THIS IS MUCH CLOSER TO NAM MOS THAN THE COOLER
GFS MOS WHERE THE STAT GUIDANCE PARTS WAYS ON FRIDAY.

OVERALL LIGHT WIND PATTERN WITH THE SEA AND BAY BREEZE MAKING
MORE OF AN INLAND ADVANCE THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WITH AN INITIAL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE TRAVERSING THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, HOWEVER THIS
FEATURE MAY END UP WEAKENING AS IT GETS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING WEST AND NORTH SOME. THE LEFTOVERS
OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL BE ASSISTED
BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME VARIATIONS WITHIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE. OVERALL, CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER
FOR OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME IS ANTICIPATED.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER IT
MAY END UP WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS FEATURE AS IT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY BEYOND, HOWEVER WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE TENDING
TO BUILD SOME AND EVEN EXPAND A BIT WESTWARD, THIS FEATURE SHOULD
NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER ESPECIALLY
SINCE IT LOOKS TO APPROACH SLOWLY. THE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT MAY BE LATE SUNDAY AS COME CONVECTION UPSTREAM WITHIN THE
LINGERING UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS COULD SPILL INTO OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR EACH
DAY WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS AS WELL. THE
LATTER SHOULD BE MORE NOTICEABLE DURING SUNDAY AS THE SOUTHERN
FLOW IS MORE ESTABLISHED THEN, ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE RETURN DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE SUBSTANTIAL.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH MIGRATES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE AXIS MAINLY TO OUR WEST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN SHOWING THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MIGRATING OVERHEAD
DURING THIS TIME. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN A MOISTENING AIR MASS,
HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE
FORCING MECHANISM. THEREFORE, WE WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, VERY WARM TO HOT AND HUMID FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
FLOW LOOKS LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL WITH RIDGING GENERALLY HOLDING. THIS KEEPS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CLOSE BY, WITH A BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN IN
PLACE. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAY BE LURKING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST, HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE SOME
HINTS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS WEAK AND
BYPASSES THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH, HOWEVER THAT WOULD BE INTO THE RIDGE
OVERALL. THE TROUGH OUT WEST WILL ASSIST IN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH, THEREFORE MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FLOW
ACROSS THE EAST. FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA, VISIT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTERS WEB SITE.
OTHER THAN A RATHER LOW CHC FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, NO
REAL ORGANIZED TRIGGERS APPEAR TO BE PRESENT ATTM FOR RAIN CHCS
WHICH THE AREA NEEDS. THE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH PERHAPS SOME RELAXATION IF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS ABLE TO KNOCK THE HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES
DOWN SOME FOR A TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY.

A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
SHOULD BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SEA BREEZE FRONT MAY REACH KACY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT
NIGHT, INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EACH MORNING,
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
AROUND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT, THE GENERALLY NORTHERLY GRADIENT WIND AROUND THE
SURFACE HIGH IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

ON FRIDAY, WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PASSING ACROSS THE MARINE
WATERS, WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER WITH MORE VARIABILITY IN
DIRECTION AS THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PROGRESS. THEN A
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
DEVELOP. THIS WILL LIKELY ALSO START WORKING ITS WAY INTO DELAWARE
BAY LATE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATES
THE WEATHER WITH LIGHTER FLOW. A SOUTHERLY FLOW HOWEVER SHOULD
INCREASE SOME AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS PARTICULARLY NEARSHORE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEA/BAY BREEZES. OVERALL, THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE



000
FXUS61 KPHI 280138
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY,
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING COOL FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY SLIDE ACROSS
OUR AREA TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD NEARBY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER LAKE ERIE AND VICINITY THIS
EVENING. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

THE LAST OF THE STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY ANTICIPATED. A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE
FLOW IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 5OS AND LOWER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EASE ACROSS OUR CWA. THE TRANSITION
TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER SLOWLY STARTS ON FRIDAY. STILL
ANOTHER SPECTACULAR LATE AUGUST DAY. THE PREDICTED CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT SUPPOSE TO BE REACHED TIL THE AFTERNOON AND
WITH LESS OF AN ANTECEDENT MOISTURE POOL BETWEEN 925MB AND 850MB
FORECASTING LESS CU THAN TODAY. THE 250MB JET WILL BE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST, SO NO JET STREAM CIRRUS PROBLEMS. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTS A 1-3F BUMP IN MAX
TEMPS FROM TODAY. THIS IS MUCH CLOSER TO NAM MOS THAN THE COOLER
GFS MOS WHERE THE STAT GUIDANCE PARTS WAYS ON FRIDAY.

OVERALL LIGHT WIND PATTERN WITH THE SEA AND BAY BREEZE MAKING
MORE OF AN INLAND ADVANCE THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WITH AN INITIAL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE TRAVERSING THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, HOWEVER THIS
FEATURE MAY END UP WEAKENING AS IT GETS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING WEST AND NORTH SOME. THE LEFTOVERS
OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL BE ASSISTED
BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME VARIATIONS WITHIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE. OVERALL, CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER
FOR OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME IS ANTICIPATED.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER IT
MAY END UP WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS FEATURE AS IT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY BEYOND, HOWEVER WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE TENDING
TO BUILD SOME AND EVEN EXPAND A BIT WESTWARD, THIS FEATURE SHOULD
NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER ESPECIALLY
SINCE IT LOOKS TO APPROACH SLOWLY. THE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT MAY BE LATE SUNDAY AS COME CONVECTION UPSTREAM WITHIN THE
LINGERING UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS COULD SPILL INTO OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR EACH
DAY WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS AS WELL. THE
LATTER SHOULD BE MORE NOTICEABLE DURING SUNDAY AS THE SOUTHERN
FLOW IS MORE ESTABLISHED THEN, ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE RETURN DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE SUBSTANTIAL.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH MIGRATES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE AXIS MAINLY TO OUR WEST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN SHOWING THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MIGRATING OVERHEAD
DURING THIS TIME. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN A MOISTENING AIR MASS,
HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE
FORCING MECHANISM. THEREFORE, WE WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, VERY WARM TO HOT AND HUMID FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
FLOW LOOKS LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL WITH RIDGING GENERALLY HOLDING. THIS KEEPS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CLOSE BY, WITH A BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN IN
PLACE. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAY BE LURKING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST, HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE SOME
HINTS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS WEAK AND
BYPASSES THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH, HOWEVER THAT WOULD BE INTO THE RIDGE
OVERALL. THE TROUGH OUT WEST WILL ASSIST IN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH, THEREFORE MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FLOW
ACROSS THE EAST. FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA, VISIT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTERS WEB SITE.
OTHER THAN A RATHER LOW CHC FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, NO
REAL ORGANIZED TRIGGERS APPEAR TO BE PRESENT ATTM FOR RAIN CHCS
WHICH THE AREA NEEDS. THE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH PERHAPS SOME RELAXATION IF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS ABLE TO KNOCK THE HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES
DOWN SOME FOR A TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY.

A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
SHOULD BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SEA BREEZE FRONT MAY REACH KACY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT
NIGHT, INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EACH MORNING,
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
AROUND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT, THE GENERALLY NORTHERLY GRADIENT WIND AROUND THE
SURFACE HIGH IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

ON FRIDAY, WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PASSING ACROSS THE MARINE
WATERS, WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER WITH MORE VARIABILITY IN
DIRECTION AS THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PROGRESS. THEN A
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
DEVELOP. THIS WILL LIKELY ALSO START WORKING ITS WAY INTO DELAWARE
BAY LATE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATES
THE WEATHER WITH LIGHTER FLOW. A SOUTHERLY FLOW HOWEVER SHOULD
INCREASE SOME AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS PARTICULARLY NEARSHORE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEA/BAY BREEZES. OVERALL, THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE



000
FXUS61 KPHI 280138
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
938 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS OUR REGION OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY,
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING COOL FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY SLIDE ACROSS
OUR AREA TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD NEARBY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED OVER LAKE ERIE AND VICINITY THIS
EVENING. THE HIGH WILL DRIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

THE LAST OF THE STRATOCUMULUS WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE WITH A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY ANTICIPATED. A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH SURFACE
FLOW IS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES SHOULD DROP INTO THE 5OS AND LOWER
60S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EASE ACROSS OUR CWA. THE TRANSITION
TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER SLOWLY STARTS ON FRIDAY. STILL
ANOTHER SPECTACULAR LATE AUGUST DAY. THE PREDICTED CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT SUPPOSE TO BE REACHED TIL THE AFTERNOON AND
WITH LESS OF AN ANTECEDENT MOISTURE POOL BETWEEN 925MB AND 850MB
FORECASTING LESS CU THAN TODAY. THE 250MB JET WILL BE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST, SO NO JET STREAM CIRRUS PROBLEMS. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTS A 1-3F BUMP IN MAX
TEMPS FROM TODAY. THIS IS MUCH CLOSER TO NAM MOS THAN THE COOLER
GFS MOS WHERE THE STAT GUIDANCE PARTS WAYS ON FRIDAY.

OVERALL LIGHT WIND PATTERN WITH THE SEA AND BAY BREEZE MAKING
MORE OF AN INLAND ADVANCE THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WITH AN INITIAL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE TRAVERSING THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, HOWEVER THIS
FEATURE MAY END UP WEAKENING AS IT GETS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING WEST AND NORTH SOME. THE LEFTOVERS
OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL BE ASSISTED
BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME VARIATIONS WITHIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE. OVERALL, CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER
FOR OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME IS ANTICIPATED.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER IT
MAY END UP WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS FEATURE AS IT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY BEYOND, HOWEVER WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE TENDING
TO BUILD SOME AND EVEN EXPAND A BIT WESTWARD, THIS FEATURE SHOULD
NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER ESPECIALLY
SINCE IT LOOKS TO APPROACH SLOWLY. THE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT MAY BE LATE SUNDAY AS COME CONVECTION UPSTREAM WITHIN THE
LINGERING UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS COULD SPILL INTO OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR EACH
DAY WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS AS WELL. THE
LATTER SHOULD BE MORE NOTICEABLE DURING SUNDAY AS THE SOUTHERN
FLOW IS MORE ESTABLISHED THEN, ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE RETURN DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE SUBSTANTIAL.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH MIGRATES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE AXIS MAINLY TO OUR WEST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN SHOWING THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MIGRATING OVERHEAD
DURING THIS TIME. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN A MOISTENING AIR MASS,
HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE
FORCING MECHANISM. THEREFORE, WE WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, VERY WARM TO HOT AND HUMID FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
FLOW LOOKS LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL WITH RIDGING GENERALLY HOLDING. THIS KEEPS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CLOSE BY, WITH A BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN IN
PLACE. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAY BE LURKING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST, HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE SOME
HINTS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS WEAK AND
BYPASSES THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH, HOWEVER THAT WOULD BE INTO THE RIDGE
OVERALL. THE TROUGH OUT WEST WILL ASSIST IN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH, THEREFORE MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FLOW
ACROSS THE EAST. FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA, VISIT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTERS WEB SITE.
OTHER THAN A RATHER LOW CHC FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, NO
REAL ORGANIZED TRIGGERS APPEAR TO BE PRESENT ATTM FOR RAIN CHCS
WHICH THE AREA NEEDS. THE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH PERHAPS SOME RELAXATION IF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS ABLE TO KNOCK THE HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES
DOWN SOME FOR A TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH A MAINLY
CLEAR SKY.

A LIGHT NORTHWEST TO NORTH WIND OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING
SHOULD BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THE
SEA BREEZE FRONT MAY REACH KACY ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT
NIGHT, INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EACH MORNING,
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
AROUND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OVERNIGHT, THE GENERALLY NORTHERLY GRADIENT WIND AROUND THE
SURFACE HIGH IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

ON FRIDAY, WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PASSING ACROSS THE MARINE
WATERS, WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER WITH MORE VARIABILITY IN
DIRECTION AS THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PROGRESS. THEN A
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
DEVELOP. THIS WILL LIKELY ALSO START WORKING ITS WAY INTO DELAWARE
BAY LATE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATES
THE WEATHER WITH LIGHTER FLOW. A SOUTHERLY FLOW HOWEVER SHOULD
INCREASE SOME AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS PARTICULARLY NEARSHORE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEA/BAY BREEZES. OVERALL, THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/IOVINO
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE



000
FXUS61 KPHI 272222
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
622 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY,
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING COOL FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY SLIDE ACROSS
OUR AREA TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD NEARBY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE GFS HAD A SCINTILLATING 500MB 12Z INITIALIZATION AND WAS
BETTER THAN THE WRF/NAM. IT WAS ALSO SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE
NAM AT 850MB. BOTH MODELS WERE VERY VERY GOOD AT 925MB.
THIS SOUNDS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, BUT THE INITIALIZED TIME
DP/DT THE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO
TREND STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

WHILE SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING STRATOCU LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT, THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
STILL DOES NOT LOOK OVERBEARING AND THERE IS NO FORECAST OMEGA. WE
WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH TO LAST NIGHT OF CLEARING MOST OF OUR
CWA, BUT KEEPING CLOUDS LONGER FAR NORTHWEST.

LAST NIGHT OUR PFM SITE MIN TEMP BIAS WAS 0.5F TOO COLD. EVEN
WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH STILL IN NORTHWEST PA BY
MORNING, THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR DECOUPLING TO
OCCUR AGAIN.A WE WILL GO AGAIN TOWARD THE LOW END OF STAT
GUIDANCE. LIKE LAST NIGHT`S ERRORS, WE MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL
NORTHWEST IF CLOUDS LINGER LONGER THAN PREDICTED AND/OR MORE MOVE
IN TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EASE ACROSS OUR CWA. THE TRANSITION
TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER SLOWLY STARTS ON FRIDAY. STILL
ANOTHER SPECTACULAR LATE AUGUST DAY. THE PREDICTED CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT SUPPOSE TO BE REACHED TIL THE AFTERNOON AND
WITH LESS OF AN ANTECEDENT MOISTURE POOL BETWEEN 925MB AND 850MB
FORECASTING LESS CU THAN TODAY. THE 250MB JET WILL BE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST, SO NO JET STREAM CIRRUS PROBLEMS. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTS A 1-3F BUMP IN MAX
TEMPS FROM TODAY. THIS IS MUCH CLOSER TO NAM MOS THAN THE COOLER
GFS MOS WHERE THE STAT GUIDANCE PARTS WAYS ON FRIDAY.

OVERALL LIGHT WIND PATTERN WITH THE SEA AND BAY BREEZE MAKING
MORE OF AN INLAND ADVANCE THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WITH AN INITIAL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE TRAVERSING THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, HOWEVER THIS
FEATURE MAY END UP WEAKENING AS IT GETS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING WEST AND NORTH SOME. THE LEFTOVERS
OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL BE ASSISTED
BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME VARIATIONS WITHIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE. OVERALL, CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER
FOR OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME IS ANTICIPATED.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER IT
MAY END UP WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS FEATURE AS IT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY BEYOND, HOWEVER WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE TENDING
TO BUILD SOME AND EVEN EXPAND A BIT WESTWARD, THIS FEATURE SHOULD
NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER ESPECIALLY
SINCE IT LOOKS TO APPROACH SLOWLY. THE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT MAY BE LATE SUNDAY AS COME CONVECTION UPSTREAM WITHIN THE
LINGERING UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS COULD SPILL INTO OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR EACH
DAY WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS AS WELL. THE
LATTER SHOULD BE MORE NOTICEABLE DURING SUNDAY AS THE SOUTHERN
FLOW IS MORE ESTABLISHED THEN, ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE RETURN DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE SUBSTANTIAL.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH MIGRATES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE AXIS MAINLY TO OUR WEST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN SHOWING THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MIGRATING OVERHEAD
DURING THIS TIME. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN A MOISTENING AIR MASS,
HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE
FORCING MECHANISM. THEREFORE, WE WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, VERY WARM TO HOT AND HUMID FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
FLOW LOOKS LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL WITH RIDGING GENERALLY HOLDING. THIS KEEPS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CLOSE BY, WITH A BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN IN
PLACE. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAY BE LURKING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST, HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE SOME
HINTS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS WEAK AND
BYPASSES THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH, HOWEVER THAT WOULD BE INTO THE RIDGE
OVERALL. THE TROUGH OUT WEST WILL ASSIST IN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH, THEREFORE MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FLOW
ACROSS THE EAST. FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA, VISIT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTERS WEB SITE.
OTHER THAN A RATHER LOW CHC FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, NO
REAL ORGANIZED TRIGGERS APPEAR TO BE PRESENT ATTM FOR RAIN CHCS
WHICH THE AREA NEEDS. THE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH PERHAPS SOME RELAXATION IF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS ABLE TO KNOCK THE HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES
DOWN SOME FOR A TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL VFR CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND
MAINLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
POSSIBLY CALM AT SMALLER AIRPORTS. THE MOST FAVORED WIND DIRECTION
WOULD BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. LATE AT NIGHT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE FAR NORTHWEST (BEYOND TAF SITES) AIRPORTS. THIS MIGHT
PRODUCE SOME MVFR CIG AGAIN. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. ALSO WITH
ANOTHER NIGHT IN THE SAME AIR MASS, THE MOST FOG PRONED SMALLER
AIRPORTS MIGHT HAVE SOME GROUND FOG FORM TOWARD MORNING.

FRIDAY...LESS OVERALL VFR CLOUDINESS. CUMULUS COVERAGE SHOULD BE
FEW TO SCATTERED. FAVORED LIGHT NORTH WINDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD
BECOME 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE END OF THE TAF FCST PERIOD. A SEA
BREEZE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A STRONGER INLAND INTRUSION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE SOUTHEAST WIND SHIFT AT KACY REPRESENTS
THAT FEATURE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT
NIGHT, INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EACH MORNING,
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
AROUND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE GENERALLY NORTHERLY GRADIENT WIND
AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

ON FRIDAY, WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PASSING ACROSS THE MARINE
WATERS, WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER WITH MORE VARIABILITY IN
DIRECTION AS THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PROGRESS. THEN A
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
DEVELOP. THIS WILL LIKELY ALSO START WORKING ITS WAY INTO DELAWARE
BAY LATE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATES
THE WEATHER WITH LIGHTER FLOW. A SOUTHERLY FLOW HOWEVER SHOULD
INCREASE SOME AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS PARTICULARLY NEARSHORE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEA/BAY BREEZES. OVERALL, THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 272222
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
622 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY,
THEN MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING COOL FRONT IS
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY SLIDE ACROSS
OUR AREA TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD NEARBY INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE GFS HAD A SCINTILLATING 500MB 12Z INITIALIZATION AND WAS
BETTER THAN THE WRF/NAM. IT WAS ALSO SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE
NAM AT 850MB. BOTH MODELS WERE VERY VERY GOOD AT 925MB.
THIS SOUNDS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, BUT THE INITIALIZED TIME
DP/DT THE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO
TREND STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

WHILE SOME OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING STRATOCU LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT, THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION
STILL DOES NOT LOOK OVERBEARING AND THERE IS NO FORECAST OMEGA. WE
WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH TO LAST NIGHT OF CLEARING MOST OF OUR
CWA, BUT KEEPING CLOUDS LONGER FAR NORTHWEST.

LAST NIGHT OUR PFM SITE MIN TEMP BIAS WAS 0.5F TOO COLD. EVEN
WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH STILL IN NORTHWEST PA BY
MORNING, THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR DECOUPLING TO
OCCUR AGAIN.A WE WILL GO AGAIN TOWARD THE LOW END OF STAT
GUIDANCE. LIKE LAST NIGHT`S ERRORS, WE MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL
NORTHWEST IF CLOUDS LINGER LONGER THAN PREDICTED AND/OR MORE MOVE
IN TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EASE ACROSS OUR CWA. THE TRANSITION
TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER SLOWLY STARTS ON FRIDAY. STILL
ANOTHER SPECTACULAR LATE AUGUST DAY. THE PREDICTED CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT SUPPOSE TO BE REACHED TIL THE AFTERNOON AND
WITH LESS OF AN ANTECEDENT MOISTURE POOL BETWEEN 925MB AND 850MB
FORECASTING LESS CU THAN TODAY. THE 250MB JET WILL BE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST, SO NO JET STREAM CIRRUS PROBLEMS. AIR MASS
MODIFICATION BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTS A 1-3F BUMP IN MAX
TEMPS FROM TODAY. THIS IS MUCH CLOSER TO NAM MOS THAN THE COOLER
GFS MOS WHERE THE STAT GUIDANCE PARTS WAYS ON FRIDAY.

OVERALL LIGHT WIND PATTERN WITH THE SEA AND BAY BREEZE MAKING
MORE OF AN INLAND ADVANCE THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WITH AN INITIAL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE TRAVERSING THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, HOWEVER THIS
FEATURE MAY END UP WEAKENING AS IT GETS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING WEST AND NORTH SOME. THE LEFTOVERS
OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES REGION EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. WE USED A
MODEL BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC
GUIDANCE THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL BE ASSISTED
BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT
LAKES, ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME VARIATIONS WITHIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
ON THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE. OVERALL, CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER
FOR OUR AREA DURING THIS TIME IS ANTICIPATED.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER IT
MAY END UP WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS FEATURE AS IT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY BEYOND, HOWEVER WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE TENDING
TO BUILD SOME AND EVEN EXPAND A BIT WESTWARD, THIS FEATURE SHOULD
NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER ESPECIALLY
SINCE IT LOOKS TO APPROACH SLOWLY. THE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE
OINTMENT MAY BE LATE SUNDAY AS COME CONVECTION UPSTREAM WITHIN THE
LINGERING UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS COULD SPILL INTO OUR NORTHWEST
ZONES. A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR EACH
DAY WITH AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS AS WELL. THE
LATTER SHOULD BE MORE NOTICEABLE DURING SUNDAY AS THE SOUTHERN
FLOW IS MORE ESTABLISHED THEN, ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE RETURN DOES
NOT APPEAR TO BE SUBSTANTIAL.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH MIGRATES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE AXIS MAINLY TO OUR WEST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
BEEN SHOWING THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MIGRATING OVERHEAD
DURING THIS TIME. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME CONVECTION THAT
DEVELOPS WITH DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN A MOISTENING AIR MASS,
HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE ANY PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE
FORCING MECHANISM. THEREFORE, WE WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST.
OTHERWISE, VERY WARM TO HOT AND HUMID FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE
FLOW LOOKS LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE
DEVELOPMENT.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL WITH RIDGING GENERALLY HOLDING. THIS KEEPS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CLOSE BY, WITH A BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN IN
PLACE. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAY BE LURKING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST, HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE SOME
HINTS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS WEAK AND
BYPASSES THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH, HOWEVER THAT WOULD BE INTO THE RIDGE
OVERALL. THE TROUGH OUT WEST WILL ASSIST IN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE
PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH, THEREFORE MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FLOW
ACROSS THE EAST. FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL
CYCLONE ERIKA, VISIT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTERS WEB SITE.
OTHER THAN A RATHER LOW CHC FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, NO
REAL ORGANIZED TRIGGERS APPEAR TO BE PRESENT ATTM FOR RAIN CHCS
WHICH THE AREA NEEDS. THE VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD
PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA, WITH PERHAPS SOME RELAXATION IF THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS ABLE TO KNOCK THE HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES
DOWN SOME FOR A TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL VFR CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND
MAINLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
POSSIBLY CALM AT SMALLER AIRPORTS. THE MOST FAVORED WIND DIRECTION
WOULD BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. LATE AT NIGHT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE FAR NORTHWEST (BEYOND TAF SITES) AIRPORTS. THIS MIGHT
PRODUCE SOME MVFR CIG AGAIN. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. ALSO WITH
ANOTHER NIGHT IN THE SAME AIR MASS, THE MOST FOG PRONED SMALLER
AIRPORTS MIGHT HAVE SOME GROUND FOG FORM TOWARD MORNING.

FRIDAY...LESS OVERALL VFR CLOUDINESS. CUMULUS COVERAGE SHOULD BE
FEW TO SCATTERED. FAVORED LIGHT NORTH WINDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD
BECOME 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE END OF THE TAF FCST PERIOD. A SEA
BREEZE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A STRONGER INLAND INTRUSION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE SOUTHEAST WIND SHIFT AT KACY REPRESENTS
THAT FEATURE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT
NIGHT, INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WELL TO OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EACH MORNING,
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
AROUND ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE GENERALLY NORTHERLY GRADIENT WIND
AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

ON FRIDAY, WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PASSING ACROSS THE MARINE
WATERS, WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER WITH MORE VARIABILITY IN
DIRECTION AS THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PROGRESS. THEN A
LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD
DEVELOP. THIS WILL LIKELY ALSO START WORKING ITS WAY INTO DELAWARE
BAY LATE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATES
THE WEATHER WITH LIGHTER FLOW. A SOUTHERLY FLOW HOWEVER SHOULD
INCREASE SOME AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS PARTICULARLY NEARSHORE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SEA/BAY BREEZES. OVERALL, THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN
BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE



000
FXUS61 KPHI 271925
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
325 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING COOL FRONT IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA
TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD NEARBY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE GFS HAD A SCINTILLATING 500MB 12Z INITIALIZATION AND WAS
BETTER THAN THE WRF/NAM. IT WAS ALSO SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE
NAM AT 850MB. BOTH MODELS WERE VERY VERY GOOD AT 925MB.
THIS SOUNDS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, BUT THE INITIALIZED TIME
DP/DT THE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO
TREND STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

THE CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN MORE ROBUST THAN I EXPECTED.
THE PVA HAS EXITED EAST AND DOING AN AFTERNOON TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON COMPARISON, THE COVERAGE AND DEPTH LOOKS A BIT LESS
WITH LESS UPSTREAM COVERAGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE SOME
OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING STRATOCU LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT, THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STILL
DOES NOT LOOK OVERBEARING AND THERE IS NO FORECAST OMEGA.
WE WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH TO LAST NIGHT OF CLEARING
MOST OF OUR CWA, BUT KEEPING CLOUDS LONGER FAR NORTHWEST.

LAST NIGHT OUR PFM SITE MIN TEMP BIAS WAS 0.5F TOO COLD.  EVEN
WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH STILL IN NORTHWEST PA BY MORNING,
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR DECOUPLING TO OCCUR AGAIN.A
WE WILL GO AGAIN TOWARD THE LOW END OF STAT GUIDANCE. LIKE LAST NIGHT`S
ERRORS, WE MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL NORTHWEST IF CLOUDS LINGER LONGER
THAN PREDICTED AND/OR MORE MOVE IN TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EASE ACROSS OUR CWA. THE TRANSITION
TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER SLOWLY STARTS ON FRIDAY. STILL
ANOTHER SPECTACULAR LATE AUGUST DAY. THE PREDICTED CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT SUPPOSE TO BE REACHED TIL THE AFTERNOON AND
WITH LESS OF AN ANTECEDENT MOISTURE POOL BETWEEN 925MB AND 850MB
FORECASTING LESS CU THAN TODAY. THE 250MB JET WILL BE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST, SO NO JET STREAM CIRRUS PROBLEMS. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTS A 1-3F BUMP IN MAX TEMPS FROM
TODAY. THIS IS MUCH CLOSER TO NAM MOS THAN THE COOLER GFS MOS WHERE
THE STAT GUIDANCE PARTS WAYS ON FRIDAY.

OVERALL LIGHT WIND PATTERN WITH THE SEA AND BAY BREEZE MAKING MORE
OF AN INLAND ADVANCE THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WITH AN INITIAL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE TRAVERSING THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, HOWEVER THIS
FEATURE MAY END UP WEAKENING AS IT GETS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING WEST AND NORTH SOME. THE LEFTOVERS
OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES REGION EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL
BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE
THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL BE ASSISTED BY
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME VARIATIONS WITHIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE. OVERALL, CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER FOR OUR
AREA DURING THIS TIME IS ANTICIPATED.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER IT
MAY END UP WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS FEATURE AS IT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY BEYOND, HOWEVER WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE TENDING
TO BUILD SOME AND EVEN EXPAND A BIT WESTWARD, THIS FEATURE SHOULD
NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER ESPECIALLY
SINCE IT LOOKS TO APPROACH SLOWLY. THE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
MAY BE LATE SUNDAY AS COME CONVECTION UPSTREAM WITHIN THE LINGERING
UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS COULD SPILL INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR EACH DAY WITH AT
LEAST SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS AS WELL. THE LATTER SHOULD BE
MORE NOTICEABLE DURING SUNDAY AS THE SOUTHERN FLOW IS MORE
ESTABLISHED THEN, ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE RETURN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SUBSTANTIAL.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH MIGRATES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE AXIS MAINLY TO OUR WEST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
SHOWING THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MIGRATING OVERHEAD DURING
THIS TIME. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN A MOISTENING AIRMASS, HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE ANY PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE FORCING MECHANISM.
THEREFORE, WE WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST. OTHERWISE, VERY WARM TO HOT
AND HUMID FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE FLOW LOOKS LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL WITH RIDGING GENERALLY HOLDING. THIS KEEPS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CLOSE BY, WITH A BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN IN
PLACE. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAY BE LURKING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST, HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE SOME
HINTS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS WEAK AND
BYPASSES THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH, HOWEVER THAT WOULD BE INTO THE RIDGE OVERALL.
THE TROUGH OUT WEST WILL ASSIST IN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE PLACEMENT
AND STRENGTH, THEREFORE MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FLOW ACROSS THE
EAST. FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA,
VISIT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTERS WEB SITE. OTHER THAN A RATHER
LOW CHC FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, NO REAL ORGANIZED TRIGGERS
APPEAR TO BE PRESENT ATTM FOR RAIN CHCS WHICH THE AREA NEEDS. THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
WITH PERHAPS SOME RELAXATION IF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS ABLE TO
KNOCK THE HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR A TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS WERE VFR.

REST OF AFTERNOON...VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH VFR CU CIGS
AT NORTHWEST AIRPORTS WITH IT OCCURRING AT TIMES AT THE TERMINALS
TOWARD KPHL AND KPNE.  LESS CUMULUS COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTHEAST ONE
IS LOCATED. NEAR THE COAST THE CIRRUS IS EXITING. NORTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 10 KNOTS MAY BACK A BIT MORE TO THE WEST AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE NJ COAST AGAIN. BUT WE ARE NOT AS CONFIDENT
ABOUT KACY GETTING AFFECTED, IT SHOULD BE CLOSER TODAY.

TONIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL VFR CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND
MAINLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
POSSIBLY CALM AT SMALLER AIRPORTS. THE MOST FAVORED WIND DIRECTION
WOULD BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. LATE AT NIGHT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE FAR NORTHWEST (BEYOND TAF SITES) AIRPORTS. THIS MIGHT
PRODUCE SOME MVFR CIG AGAIN. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. ALSO WITH
ANOTHER NIGHT IN THE SAME AIR MASS, THE MOST FOG PRONED SMALLER
AIRPORTS MIGHT HAVE SOME GROUND FOG FORM TOWARD MORNING.

FRIDAY...LESS OVERALL VFR CLOUDINESS. CUMULUS COVERAGE SHOULD BE
FEW TO SCATTERED. FAVORED LIGHT NORTH WINDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD
BECOME 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE END OF THE TAF FCST PERIOD. A SEA
BREEZE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A STRONGER INLAND INTRUSION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE SOUTHEAST WIND SHIFT AT KACY REPRESENTS
THAT FEATURE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT NIGHT,
INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WELL TO
OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EACH MORNING, OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AROUND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION IS SLOWER
THAN YESTERDAY AND MARINE WIND SPEED GUIDANCE OVERALL WAS LIGHTER.
ONCE AGAIN ITS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO DELAWARE BAY.

THEN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE GENERALLY NORTHERLY
GRADIENT WIND AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

ON FRIDAY, WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PASSING ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS,
WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER WITH MORE VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION
AS THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PROGRESS. THEN A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD DEVELOP. THIS
WILL LIKELY ALSO START WORKING ITS WAY INTO DELAWARE BAY LATE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATES THE
WEATHER WITH LIGHTER FLOW. A SOUTHERLY FLOW HOWEVER SHOULD INCREASE
SOME AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
PARTICULARLY NEARSHORE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA/BAY BREEZES.
OVERALL, THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE



000
FXUS61 KPHI 271925
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
325 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING COOL FRONT IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA
TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD NEARBY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE GFS HAD A SCINTILLATING 500MB 12Z INITIALIZATION AND WAS
BETTER THAN THE WRF/NAM. IT WAS ALSO SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE
NAM AT 850MB. BOTH MODELS WERE VERY VERY GOOD AT 925MB.
THIS SOUNDS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, BUT THE INITIALIZED TIME
DP/DT THE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO
TREND STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

THE CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN MORE ROBUST THAN I EXPECTED.
THE PVA HAS EXITED EAST AND DOING AN AFTERNOON TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON COMPARISON, THE COVERAGE AND DEPTH LOOKS A BIT LESS
WITH LESS UPSTREAM COVERAGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE SOME
OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING STRATOCU LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT, THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STILL
DOES NOT LOOK OVERBEARING AND THERE IS NO FORECAST OMEGA.
WE WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH TO LAST NIGHT OF CLEARING
MOST OF OUR CWA, BUT KEEPING CLOUDS LONGER FAR NORTHWEST.

LAST NIGHT OUR PFM SITE MIN TEMP BIAS WAS 0.5F TOO COLD.  EVEN
WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH STILL IN NORTHWEST PA BY MORNING,
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR DECOUPLING TO OCCUR AGAIN.A
WE WILL GO AGAIN TOWARD THE LOW END OF STAT GUIDANCE. LIKE LAST NIGHT`S
ERRORS, WE MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL NORTHWEST IF CLOUDS LINGER LONGER
THAN PREDICTED AND/OR MORE MOVE IN TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EASE ACROSS OUR CWA. THE TRANSITION
TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER SLOWLY STARTS ON FRIDAY. STILL
ANOTHER SPECTACULAR LATE AUGUST DAY. THE PREDICTED CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT SUPPOSE TO BE REACHED TIL THE AFTERNOON AND
WITH LESS OF AN ANTECEDENT MOISTURE POOL BETWEEN 925MB AND 850MB
FORECASTING LESS CU THAN TODAY. THE 250MB JET WILL BE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST, SO NO JET STREAM CIRRUS PROBLEMS. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTS A 1-3F BUMP IN MAX TEMPS FROM
TODAY. THIS IS MUCH CLOSER TO NAM MOS THAN THE COOLER GFS MOS WHERE
THE STAT GUIDANCE PARTS WAYS ON FRIDAY.

OVERALL LIGHT WIND PATTERN WITH THE SEA AND BAY BREEZE MAKING MORE
OF AN INLAND ADVANCE THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WITH AN INITIAL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE TRAVERSING THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, HOWEVER THIS
FEATURE MAY END UP WEAKENING AS IT GETS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING WEST AND NORTH SOME. THE LEFTOVERS
OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES REGION EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL
BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE
THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL BE ASSISTED BY
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME VARIATIONS WITHIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE. OVERALL, CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER FOR OUR
AREA DURING THIS TIME IS ANTICIPATED.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER IT
MAY END UP WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS FEATURE AS IT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY BEYOND, HOWEVER WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE TENDING
TO BUILD SOME AND EVEN EXPAND A BIT WESTWARD, THIS FEATURE SHOULD
NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER ESPECIALLY
SINCE IT LOOKS TO APPROACH SLOWLY. THE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
MAY BE LATE SUNDAY AS COME CONVECTION UPSTREAM WITHIN THE LINGERING
UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS COULD SPILL INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR EACH DAY WITH AT
LEAST SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS AS WELL. THE LATTER SHOULD BE
MORE NOTICEABLE DURING SUNDAY AS THE SOUTHERN FLOW IS MORE
ESTABLISHED THEN, ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE RETURN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SUBSTANTIAL.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH MIGRATES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE AXIS MAINLY TO OUR WEST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
SHOWING THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MIGRATING OVERHEAD DURING
THIS TIME. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN A MOISTENING AIRMASS, HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE ANY PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE FORCING MECHANISM.
THEREFORE, WE WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST. OTHERWISE, VERY WARM TO HOT
AND HUMID FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE FLOW LOOKS LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL WITH RIDGING GENERALLY HOLDING. THIS KEEPS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CLOSE BY, WITH A BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN IN
PLACE. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAY BE LURKING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST, HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE SOME
HINTS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS WEAK AND
BYPASSES THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH, HOWEVER THAT WOULD BE INTO THE RIDGE OVERALL.
THE TROUGH OUT WEST WILL ASSIST IN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE PLACEMENT
AND STRENGTH, THEREFORE MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FLOW ACROSS THE
EAST. FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA,
VISIT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTERS WEB SITE. OTHER THAN A RATHER
LOW CHC FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, NO REAL ORGANIZED TRIGGERS
APPEAR TO BE PRESENT ATTM FOR RAIN CHCS WHICH THE AREA NEEDS. THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
WITH PERHAPS SOME RELAXATION IF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS ABLE TO
KNOCK THE HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR A TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS WERE VFR.

REST OF AFTERNOON...VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH VFR CU CIGS
AT NORTHWEST AIRPORTS WITH IT OCCURRING AT TIMES AT THE TERMINALS
TOWARD KPHL AND KPNE.  LESS CUMULUS COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTHEAST ONE
IS LOCATED. NEAR THE COAST THE CIRRUS IS EXITING. NORTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 10 KNOTS MAY BACK A BIT MORE TO THE WEST AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE NJ COAST AGAIN. BUT WE ARE NOT AS CONFIDENT
ABOUT KACY GETTING AFFECTED, IT SHOULD BE CLOSER TODAY.

TONIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL VFR CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND
MAINLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
POSSIBLY CALM AT SMALLER AIRPORTS. THE MOST FAVORED WIND DIRECTION
WOULD BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. LATE AT NIGHT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE FAR NORTHWEST (BEYOND TAF SITES) AIRPORTS. THIS MIGHT
PRODUCE SOME MVFR CIG AGAIN. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. ALSO WITH
ANOTHER NIGHT IN THE SAME AIR MASS, THE MOST FOG PRONED SMALLER
AIRPORTS MIGHT HAVE SOME GROUND FOG FORM TOWARD MORNING.

FRIDAY...LESS OVERALL VFR CLOUDINESS. CUMULUS COVERAGE SHOULD BE
FEW TO SCATTERED. FAVORED LIGHT NORTH WINDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD
BECOME 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE END OF THE TAF FCST PERIOD. A SEA
BREEZE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A STRONGER INLAND INTRUSION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE SOUTHEAST WIND SHIFT AT KACY REPRESENTS
THAT FEATURE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT NIGHT,
INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WELL TO
OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EACH MORNING, OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AROUND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION IS SLOWER
THAN YESTERDAY AND MARINE WIND SPEED GUIDANCE OVERALL WAS LIGHTER.
ONCE AGAIN ITS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO DELAWARE BAY.

THEN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE GENERALLY NORTHERLY
GRADIENT WIND AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

ON FRIDAY, WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PASSING ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS,
WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER WITH MORE VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION
AS THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PROGRESS. THEN A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD DEVELOP. THIS
WILL LIKELY ALSO START WORKING ITS WAY INTO DELAWARE BAY LATE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATES THE
WEATHER WITH LIGHTER FLOW. A SOUTHERLY FLOW HOWEVER SHOULD INCREASE
SOME AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
PARTICULARLY NEARSHORE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA/BAY BREEZES.
OVERALL, THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 271925
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
325 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING COOL FRONT IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA
TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD NEARBY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE GFS HAD A SCINTILLATING 500MB 12Z INITIALIZATION AND WAS
BETTER THAN THE WRF/NAM. IT WAS ALSO SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE
NAM AT 850MB. BOTH MODELS WERE VERY VERY GOOD AT 925MB.
THIS SOUNDS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, BUT THE INITIALIZED TIME
DP/DT THE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO
TREND STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

THE CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN MORE ROBUST THAN I EXPECTED.
THE PVA HAS EXITED EAST AND DOING AN AFTERNOON TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON COMPARISON, THE COVERAGE AND DEPTH LOOKS A BIT LESS
WITH LESS UPSTREAM COVERAGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE SOME
OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING STRATOCU LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT, THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STILL
DOES NOT LOOK OVERBEARING AND THERE IS NO FORECAST OMEGA.
WE WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH TO LAST NIGHT OF CLEARING
MOST OF OUR CWA, BUT KEEPING CLOUDS LONGER FAR NORTHWEST.

LAST NIGHT OUR PFM SITE MIN TEMP BIAS WAS 0.5F TOO COLD.  EVEN
WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH STILL IN NORTHWEST PA BY MORNING,
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR DECOUPLING TO OCCUR AGAIN.A
WE WILL GO AGAIN TOWARD THE LOW END OF STAT GUIDANCE. LIKE LAST NIGHT`S
ERRORS, WE MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL NORTHWEST IF CLOUDS LINGER LONGER
THAN PREDICTED AND/OR MORE MOVE IN TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EASE ACROSS OUR CWA. THE TRANSITION
TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER SLOWLY STARTS ON FRIDAY. STILL
ANOTHER SPECTACULAR LATE AUGUST DAY. THE PREDICTED CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT SUPPOSE TO BE REACHED TIL THE AFTERNOON AND
WITH LESS OF AN ANTECEDENT MOISTURE POOL BETWEEN 925MB AND 850MB
FORECASTING LESS CU THAN TODAY. THE 250MB JET WILL BE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST, SO NO JET STREAM CIRRUS PROBLEMS. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTS A 1-3F BUMP IN MAX TEMPS FROM
TODAY. THIS IS MUCH CLOSER TO NAM MOS THAN THE COOLER GFS MOS WHERE
THE STAT GUIDANCE PARTS WAYS ON FRIDAY.

OVERALL LIGHT WIND PATTERN WITH THE SEA AND BAY BREEZE MAKING MORE
OF AN INLAND ADVANCE THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WITH AN INITIAL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE TRAVERSING THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, HOWEVER THIS
FEATURE MAY END UP WEAKENING AS IT GETS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING WEST AND NORTH SOME. THE LEFTOVERS
OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES REGION EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL
BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE
THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL BE ASSISTED BY
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME VARIATIONS WITHIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE. OVERALL, CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER FOR OUR
AREA DURING THIS TIME IS ANTICIPATED.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER IT
MAY END UP WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS FEATURE AS IT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY BEYOND, HOWEVER WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE TENDING
TO BUILD SOME AND EVEN EXPAND A BIT WESTWARD, THIS FEATURE SHOULD
NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER ESPECIALLY
SINCE IT LOOKS TO APPROACH SLOWLY. THE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
MAY BE LATE SUNDAY AS COME CONVECTION UPSTREAM WITHIN THE LINGERING
UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS COULD SPILL INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR EACH DAY WITH AT
LEAST SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS AS WELL. THE LATTER SHOULD BE
MORE NOTICEABLE DURING SUNDAY AS THE SOUTHERN FLOW IS MORE
ESTABLISHED THEN, ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE RETURN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SUBSTANTIAL.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH MIGRATES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE AXIS MAINLY TO OUR WEST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
SHOWING THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MIGRATING OVERHEAD DURING
THIS TIME. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN A MOISTENING AIRMASS, HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE ANY PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE FORCING MECHANISM.
THEREFORE, WE WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST. OTHERWISE, VERY WARM TO HOT
AND HUMID FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE FLOW LOOKS LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL WITH RIDGING GENERALLY HOLDING. THIS KEEPS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CLOSE BY, WITH A BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN IN
PLACE. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAY BE LURKING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST, HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE SOME
HINTS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS WEAK AND
BYPASSES THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH, HOWEVER THAT WOULD BE INTO THE RIDGE OVERALL.
THE TROUGH OUT WEST WILL ASSIST IN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE PLACEMENT
AND STRENGTH, THEREFORE MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FLOW ACROSS THE
EAST. FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA,
VISIT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTERS WEB SITE. OTHER THAN A RATHER
LOW CHC FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, NO REAL ORGANIZED TRIGGERS
APPEAR TO BE PRESENT ATTM FOR RAIN CHCS WHICH THE AREA NEEDS. THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
WITH PERHAPS SOME RELAXATION IF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS ABLE TO
KNOCK THE HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR A TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS WERE VFR.

REST OF AFTERNOON...VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH VFR CU CIGS
AT NORTHWEST AIRPORTS WITH IT OCCURRING AT TIMES AT THE TERMINALS
TOWARD KPHL AND KPNE.  LESS CUMULUS COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTHEAST ONE
IS LOCATED. NEAR THE COAST THE CIRRUS IS EXITING. NORTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 10 KNOTS MAY BACK A BIT MORE TO THE WEST AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE NJ COAST AGAIN. BUT WE ARE NOT AS CONFIDENT
ABOUT KACY GETTING AFFECTED, IT SHOULD BE CLOSER TODAY.

TONIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL VFR CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND
MAINLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
POSSIBLY CALM AT SMALLER AIRPORTS. THE MOST FAVORED WIND DIRECTION
WOULD BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. LATE AT NIGHT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE FAR NORTHWEST (BEYOND TAF SITES) AIRPORTS. THIS MIGHT
PRODUCE SOME MVFR CIG AGAIN. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. ALSO WITH
ANOTHER NIGHT IN THE SAME AIR MASS, THE MOST FOG PRONED SMALLER
AIRPORTS MIGHT HAVE SOME GROUND FOG FORM TOWARD MORNING.

FRIDAY...LESS OVERALL VFR CLOUDINESS. CUMULUS COVERAGE SHOULD BE
FEW TO SCATTERED. FAVORED LIGHT NORTH WINDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD
BECOME 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE END OF THE TAF FCST PERIOD. A SEA
BREEZE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A STRONGER INLAND INTRUSION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE SOUTHEAST WIND SHIFT AT KACY REPRESENTS
THAT FEATURE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT NIGHT,
INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WELL TO
OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EACH MORNING, OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AROUND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION IS SLOWER
THAN YESTERDAY AND MARINE WIND SPEED GUIDANCE OVERALL WAS LIGHTER.
ONCE AGAIN ITS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO DELAWARE BAY.

THEN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE GENERALLY NORTHERLY
GRADIENT WIND AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

ON FRIDAY, WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PASSING ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS,
WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER WITH MORE VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION
AS THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PROGRESS. THEN A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD DEVELOP. THIS
WILL LIKELY ALSO START WORKING ITS WAY INTO DELAWARE BAY LATE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATES THE
WEATHER WITH LIGHTER FLOW. A SOUTHERLY FLOW HOWEVER SHOULD INCREASE
SOME AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
PARTICULARLY NEARSHORE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA/BAY BREEZES.
OVERALL, THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE



000
FXUS61 KPHI 271925
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
325 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SETTLE ACROSS OUR REGION TONIGHT AND FRIDAY, THEN
MOVE OFFSHORE DURING THE WEEKEND. A WEAKENING COOL FRONT IS FORECAST
TO ARRIVE LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, THEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. A WEAK SYSTEM MAY SLIDE ACROSS OUR AREA
TUESDAY, AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD NEARBY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE GFS HAD A SCINTILLATING 500MB 12Z INITIALIZATION AND WAS
BETTER THAN THE WRF/NAM. IT WAS ALSO SLIGHTLY BETTER THAN THE
NAM AT 850MB. BOTH MODELS WERE VERY VERY GOOD AT 925MB.
THIS SOUNDS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD, BUT THE INITIALIZED TIME
DP/DT THE RIDGE IN THE CENTRAL/WESTERN CONUS CONTINUES TO
TREND STRONGER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

THE CU FIELD THIS AFTERNOON HAS BEEN MORE ROBUST THAN I EXPECTED.
THE PVA HAS EXITED EAST AND DOING AN AFTERNOON TO YESTERDAY
AFTERNOON COMPARISON, THE COVERAGE AND DEPTH LOOKS A BIT LESS
WITH LESS UPSTREAM COVERAGE OVER THE GREAT LAKES. WHILE SOME
OF THE MESOSCALE MODELS ARE SHOWING STRATOCU LEVEL MOISTURE
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT, THE SUBSIDENCE INVERSION STILL
DOES NOT LOOK OVERBEARING AND THERE IS NO FORECAST OMEGA.
WE WILL FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATH TO LAST NIGHT OF CLEARING
MOST OF OUR CWA, BUT KEEPING CLOUDS LONGER FAR NORTHWEST.

LAST NIGHT OUR PFM SITE MIN TEMP BIAS WAS 0.5F TOO COLD.  EVEN
WITH THE CENTER OF THE SURFACE HIGH STILL IN NORTHWEST PA BY MORNING,
THE BOUNDARY LAYER WIND IS WEAK ENOUGH FOR DECOUPLING TO OCCUR AGAIN.A
WE WILL GO AGAIN TOWARD THE LOW END OF STAT GUIDANCE. LIKE LAST NIGHT`S
ERRORS, WE MAY BE A BIT TOO COOL NORTHWEST IF CLOUDS LINGER LONGER
THAN PREDICTED AND/OR MORE MOVE IN TOWARD MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL EASE ACROSS OUR CWA. THE TRANSITION
TO WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEATHER SLOWLY STARTS ON FRIDAY. STILL
ANOTHER SPECTACULAR LATE AUGUST DAY. THE PREDICTED CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES ARE NOT SUPPOSE TO BE REACHED TIL THE AFTERNOON AND
WITH LESS OF AN ANTECEDENT MOISTURE POOL BETWEEN 925MB AND 850MB
FORECASTING LESS CU THAN TODAY. THE 250MB JET WILL BE FARTHER TO
THE SOUTHEAST, SO NO JET STREAM CIRRUS PROBLEMS. AIR MASS MODIFICATION
BY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON SUGGESTS A 1-3F BUMP IN MAX TEMPS FROM
TODAY. THIS IS MUCH CLOSER TO NAM MOS THAN THE COOLER GFS MOS WHERE
THE STAT GUIDANCE PARTS WAYS ON FRIDAY.

OVERALL LIGHT WIND PATTERN WITH THE SEA AND BAY BREEZE MAKING MORE
OF AN INLAND ADVANCE THAN THE PAST TWO DAYS LATE IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A RIDGE EAST OF THE CAROLINAS
WITH AN INITIAL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID ATLANTIC
REGIONS. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE TRAVERSING THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, HOWEVER THIS
FEATURE MAY END UP WEAKENING AS IT GETS TO THE NORTHEAST WITH THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE BUILDING WEST AND NORTH SOME. THE LEFTOVERS
OF THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS OUR AREA TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, THEN AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE EXPANDS ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
AND GREAT LAKES REGION EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. WE USED A MODEL
BLEND FOR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, THEN THE 12Z WPC GUIDANCE
THEREAFTER. SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE THEN MADE FOLLOWING
ADDITIONAL COLLABORATION WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT...A RIDGE CENTERED TO OUR SOUTHEAST WILL ALLOW
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO BE OVER OUR AREA. THIS WILL BE ASSISTED BY
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND UPPER GREAT LAKES,
ALTHOUGH THERE IS SOME VARIATIONS WITHIN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON THE
AMPLITUDE OF THIS FEATURE. OVERALL, CONTINUED QUIET WEATHER FOR OUR
AREA DURING THIS TIME IS ANTICIPATED.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...A SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BE
SLIDING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION DURING THIS TIME, HOWEVER IT
MAY END UP WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES THE NORTHEAST. SOME MODEL
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS FEATURE AS IT APPROACHES SUNDAY NIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY BEYOND, HOWEVER WITH THE WESTERN ATLANTIC RIDGE TENDING
TO BUILD SOME AND EVEN EXPAND A BIT WESTWARD, THIS FEATURE SHOULD
NOT HAVE MUCH IN THE WAY OF AN IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER ESPECIALLY
SINCE IT LOOKS TO APPROACH SLOWLY. THE POSSIBLE FLY IN THE OINTMENT
MAY BE LATE SUNDAY AS COME CONVECTION UPSTREAM WITHIN THE LINGERING
UPPER-LEVEL WEAKNESS COULD SPILL INTO OUR NORTHWEST ZONES. A
SOUTHERLY FLOW OF WARMER AIR IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR EACH DAY WITH AT
LEAST SOME INCREASE IN THE DEW POINTS AS WELL. THE LATTER SHOULD BE
MORE NOTICEABLE DURING SUNDAY AS THE SOUTHERN FLOW IS MORE
ESTABLISHED THEN, ALTHOUGH THE MOISTURE RETURN DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE
SUBSTANTIAL.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS A TROUGH MIGRATES ACROSS THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST, DOWNSTREAM RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR. THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS A HIGHER AMPLITUDE RIDGE OCCURRING DURING THIS TIME
FRAME WITH THE AXIS MAINLY TO OUR WEST. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE HAS BEEN
SHOWING THE WEAKENING SHORT WAVE TROUGH MIGRATING OVERHEAD DURING
THIS TIME. THERE STILL COULD BE SOME CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN A MOISTENING AIRMASS, HOWEVER THERE DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE ANY PRONOUNCED LARGE SCALE FORCING MECHANISM.
THEREFORE, WE WENT WITH A DRY FORECAST. OTHERWISE, VERY WARM TO HOT
AND HUMID FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. THE FLOW LOOKS LIGHT ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT.

FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC SETUP DURING THIS
TIME FRAME AS WELL WITH RIDGING GENERALLY HOLDING. THIS KEEPS HIGH
PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE CLOSE BY, WITH A BLOCKING TYPE PATTERN IN
PLACE. TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA MAY BE LURKING OFF THE SOUTHEASTERN
U.S. COAST, HOWEVER THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE SOME
HINTS IN THE GUIDANCE THAT A TROUGH SLIDES ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
THURSDAY BEFORE THE RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN, HOWEVER IT LOOKS WEAK AND
BYPASSES THE TROPICAL SYSTEM. SOME GUIDANCE BRINGS THE TROPICAL
SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH, HOWEVER THAT WOULD BE INTO THE RIDGE OVERALL.
THE TROUGH OUT WEST WILL ASSIST IN THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE PLACEMENT
AND STRENGTH, THEREFORE MORE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE FLOW ACROSS THE
EAST. FOR THE LATEST FORECAST INFORMATION ON TROPICAL CYCLONE ERIKA,
VISIT THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTERS WEB SITE. OTHER THAN A RATHER
LOW CHC FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION, NO REAL ORGANIZED TRIGGERS
APPEAR TO BE PRESENT ATTM FOR RAIN CHCS WHICH THE AREA NEEDS. THE
VERY WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA,
WITH PERHAPS SOME RELAXATION IF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH IS ABLE TO
KNOCK THE HEIGHTS/TEMPERATURES DOWN SOME FOR A TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS WERE VFR.

REST OF AFTERNOON...VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH VFR CU CIGS
AT NORTHWEST AIRPORTS WITH IT OCCURRING AT TIMES AT THE TERMINALS
TOWARD KPHL AND KPNE.  LESS CUMULUS COVERAGE FARTHER SOUTHEAST ONE
IS LOCATED. NEAR THE COAST THE CIRRUS IS EXITING. NORTHWEST WINDS
5 TO 10 KNOTS MAY BACK A BIT MORE TO THE WEST AS THE AFTERNOON
PROGRESSES. THE SEA BREEZE FRONT IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN NEAR
THE IMMEDIATE NJ COAST AGAIN. BUT WE ARE NOT AS CONFIDENT
ABOUT KACY GETTING AFFECTED, IT SHOULD BE CLOSER TODAY.

TONIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL VFR CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND
MAINLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
POSSIBLY CALM AT SMALLER AIRPORTS. THE MOST FAVORED WIND DIRECTION
WOULD BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. LATE AT NIGHT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE FAR NORTHWEST (BEYOND TAF SITES) AIRPORTS. THIS MIGHT
PRODUCE SOME MVFR CIG AGAIN. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. ALSO WITH
ANOTHER NIGHT IN THE SAME AIR MASS, THE MOST FOG PRONED SMALLER
AIRPORTS MIGHT HAVE SOME GROUND FOG FORM TOWARD MORNING.

FRIDAY...LESS OVERALL VFR CLOUDINESS. CUMULUS COVERAGE SHOULD BE
FEW TO SCATTERED. FAVORED LIGHT NORTH WINDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD
BECOME 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE END OF THE TAF FCST PERIOD. A SEA
BREEZE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A STRONGER INLAND INTRUSION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE SOUTHEAST WIND SHIFT AT KACY REPRESENTS
THAT FEATURE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...VFR. LIGHT SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AT NIGHT,
INCREASING UP TO 10 KNOTS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.

SUNDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EARLY, OTHERWISE VFR. A FEW SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WELL TO
OUR WEST AND NORTHWEST.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...A CHANCE OF LOCAL FOG EACH MORNING, OTHERWISE
MAINLY VFR. THERE COULD BE A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM AROUND
ESPECIALLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
NO MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION IS SLOWER
THAN YESTERDAY AND MARINE WIND SPEED GUIDANCE OVERALL WAS LIGHTER.
ONCE AGAIN ITS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO DELAWARE BAY.

THEN LATER THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE GENERALLY NORTHERLY
GRADIENT WIND AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH IS PREDICTED TO RETURN.

ON FRIDAY, WITH THE SURFACE HIGH PASSING ACROSS THE MARINE WATERS,
WIND SPEEDS WILL BECOME LIGHTER WITH MORE VARIABILITY IN DIRECTION
AS THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON PROGRESS. THEN A LIGHT EAST TO
SOUTHEAST CIRCULATION AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH SHOULD DEVELOP. THIS
WILL LIKELY ALSO START WORKING ITS WAY INTO DELAWARE BAY LATE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE GENERALLY DOMINATES THE
WEATHER WITH LIGHTER FLOW. A SOUTHERLY FLOW HOWEVER SHOULD INCREASE
SOME AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS
PARTICULARLY NEARSHORE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEA/BAY BREEZES.
OVERALL, THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...GIGI
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GIGI/GORSE
MARINE...GIGI/GORSE




000
FXUS61 KPHI 271704
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
104 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE DELAWARE VALLEY BY FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST BETWEEN THE
ESTF UPDATES AND PLAN ON KEEPING THE COVERAGE GOING. THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS DID SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CU AT UPWIND RAOB
SITES AT BOTH 850MB AND 925MB. THICKER CIRRUS LOOKS LIKE IT HAS
MADE ITS NORTHWESTERNMOST INTRUSION INTO SERN NJ AND SRN DELAWARE
AND SHOULD EASE OFFSHORE REST OF AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AROUND 850MB COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
ROBUST NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING WITHIN EXPECTATIONS. WE
MIGHT VERIFY A BIT TOO HIGH AND OPPOSITE ENDS OF FORECAST AREA
BECAUSE OF ADDITIONAL CLOUDS.

THE CENTER OF A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER OHIO
LATE THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS NOSING EASTWARD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MSLP FIELD TODAY SINCE
PRESSURE RISES FROM THE HIGH BUILDING EASTWARD WILL BE OFFSET BY A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS.

FORECAST MAX TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY ARE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY (MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER TODAY). THIS MEANS
ANOTHER COMFORTABLE LATE SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN LATE WHEN THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOCATED JUST TO OUR WEST.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN WITH NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPS FOR OUR RURAL AREAS AND SHELTERED VALLEYS UNDER THIS SETUP.
SUB-50 TEMPS ARE FORECAST FOR OUR COOLEST SPOTS IN THE POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRI THRU MON NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND THEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT/SAT NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA SAT/SUN AND THEN FALL APART BY MON.
THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. EXTRA
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE MOISTURE
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH DRAWS SOME MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRI AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL
SAT THRU MON. HIGHS MAY APPROACH THE 90S ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND
DELMARVA AREAS.

TUE...THE `WETTER` DAY OF THE EXTENDED WHEN POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH/WEST RISE TO LOW CHC/SLGT CHC AS SOME UPPER VORT ENERGY AND
MOISTURE MAY COMBINE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THE LATEST EC
SHOWS THAT THE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE DEL VALLEY AND SE PA
ALSO...THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS FURTHER. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 80S
SOUTH.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY FCST WITH TEMPS CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS WILL BE VFR.

AFTERNOON...VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH LIKELY VFR CU CIGS
AT NORTHWEST AIRPORTS AND POSSIBLY KABE AND KRDG. LESS AND LESS
LIKELY FARTHER SOUTHEAST ONE IS LOCATED. NEAR THE COAST THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME CIRRUS CLOSE TO 35K. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
MAY BACK A BIT MORE TO THE WEST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THE
SEA BREEZE FRONT IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE IMMEDIATE NJ
COAST AGAIN. BUT WE ARE NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT KACY GETTING
AFFECTED, IT SHOULD BE CLOSER TODAY.

TONIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL VFR CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND
MAINLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
POSSIBLY CALM AT SMALLER AIRPORTS. THE MOST FAVORED WIND DIRECTION
WOULD BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. LATE AT NIGHT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE FAR NORTHWEST (BEYOND TAF SITES) AIRPORTS. THIS MIGHT
PRODUCE SOME MVFR CIG AGAIN. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. ALSO WITH
ANOTHER NIGHT IN THE SAME AIR MASS, THE MOST FOG PRONED SMALLER
AIRPORTS MIGHT HAVE SOME GROUND FOG FORM TOWARD MORNING.

FRIDAY...LESS OVERALL VFR CLOUDINESS. CUMULUS COVERAGE SHOULD BE
FEW TO SCATTERED. FAVORED LIGHT NORTH WINDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD
BECOME 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE END OF THE TAF FCST PERIOD. A SEA
BREEZE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A STRONGER INLAND INTRUSION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE SOUTHEAST WIND SHIFT AT KACY REPRESENTS
THAT FEATURE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI THRU MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO WX-RELATED MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 5-
15 KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND MIDDAY
BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SEA-BREEZE FRONT. NW WINDS 5-15 KT EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2-
3 FT ARE FORECAST.


OUTLOOK...
FAIR...SUB-SCA...CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS. SEAS MOSTLY 2
TO 4 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FEET ACROSS DEL BAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 271704
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
104 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE DELAWARE VALLEY BY FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST BETWEEN THE
ESTF UPDATES AND PLAN ON KEEPING THE COVERAGE GOING. THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS DID SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CU AT UPWIND RAOB
SITES AT BOTH 850MB AND 925MB. THICKER CIRRUS LOOKS LIKE IT HAS
MADE ITS NORTHWESTERNMOST INTRUSION INTO SERN NJ AND SRN DELAWARE
AND SHOULD EASE OFFSHORE REST OF AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AROUND 850MB COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
ROBUST NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING WITHIN EXPECTATIONS. WE
MIGHT VERIFY A BIT TOO HIGH AND OPPOSITE ENDS OF FORECAST AREA
BECAUSE OF ADDITIONAL CLOUDS.

THE CENTER OF A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER OHIO
LATE THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS NOSING EASTWARD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MSLP FIELD TODAY SINCE
PRESSURE RISES FROM THE HIGH BUILDING EASTWARD WILL BE OFFSET BY A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS.

FORECAST MAX TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY ARE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY (MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER TODAY). THIS MEANS
ANOTHER COMFORTABLE LATE SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN LATE WHEN THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOCATED JUST TO OUR WEST.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN WITH NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPS FOR OUR RURAL AREAS AND SHELTERED VALLEYS UNDER THIS SETUP.
SUB-50 TEMPS ARE FORECAST FOR OUR COOLEST SPOTS IN THE POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRI THRU MON NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND THEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT/SAT NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA SAT/SUN AND THEN FALL APART BY MON.
THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. EXTRA
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE MOISTURE
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH DRAWS SOME MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRI AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL
SAT THRU MON. HIGHS MAY APPROACH THE 90S ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND
DELMARVA AREAS.

TUE...THE `WETTER` DAY OF THE EXTENDED WHEN POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH/WEST RISE TO LOW CHC/SLGT CHC AS SOME UPPER VORT ENERGY AND
MOISTURE MAY COMBINE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THE LATEST EC
SHOWS THAT THE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE DEL VALLEY AND SE PA
ALSO...THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS FURTHER. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 80S
SOUTH.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY FCST WITH TEMPS CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS WILL BE VFR.

AFTERNOON...VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH LIKELY VFR CU CIGS
AT NORTHWEST AIRPORTS AND POSSIBLY KABE AND KRDG. LESS AND LESS
LIKELY FARTHER SOUTHEAST ONE IS LOCATED. NEAR THE COAST THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME CIRRUS CLOSE TO 35K. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
MAY BACK A BIT MORE TO THE WEST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THE
SEA BREEZE FRONT IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE IMMEDIATE NJ
COAST AGAIN. BUT WE ARE NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT KACY GETTING
AFFECTED, IT SHOULD BE CLOSER TODAY.

TONIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL VFR CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND
MAINLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
POSSIBLY CALM AT SMALLER AIRPORTS. THE MOST FAVORED WIND DIRECTION
WOULD BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. LATE AT NIGHT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE FAR NORTHWEST (BEYOND TAF SITES) AIRPORTS. THIS MIGHT
PRODUCE SOME MVFR CIG AGAIN. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. ALSO WITH
ANOTHER NIGHT IN THE SAME AIR MASS, THE MOST FOG PRONED SMALLER
AIRPORTS MIGHT HAVE SOME GROUND FOG FORM TOWARD MORNING.

FRIDAY...LESS OVERALL VFR CLOUDINESS. CUMULUS COVERAGE SHOULD BE
FEW TO SCATTERED. FAVORED LIGHT NORTH WINDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD
BECOME 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE END OF THE TAF FCST PERIOD. A SEA
BREEZE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A STRONGER INLAND INTRUSION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE SOUTHEAST WIND SHIFT AT KACY REPRESENTS
THAT FEATURE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI THRU MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO WX-RELATED MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 5-
15 KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND MIDDAY
BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SEA-BREEZE FRONT. NW WINDS 5-15 KT EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2-
3 FT ARE FORECAST.


OUTLOOK...
FAIR...SUB-SCA...CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS. SEAS MOSTLY 2
TO 4 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FEET ACROSS DEL BAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 271704
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
104 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE DELAWARE VALLEY BY FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST BETWEEN THE
ESTF UPDATES AND PLAN ON KEEPING THE COVERAGE GOING. THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS DID SHOW SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR CU AT UPWIND RAOB
SITES AT BOTH 850MB AND 925MB. THICKER CIRRUS LOOKS LIKE IT HAS
MADE ITS NORTHWESTERNMOST INTRUSION INTO SERN NJ AND SRN DELAWARE
AND SHOULD EASE OFFSHORE REST OF AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL MOISTURE
AROUND 850MB COUPLED WITH DAYTIME HEATING HAS BEEN A BIT MORE
ROBUST NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES ARE RISING WITHIN EXPECTATIONS. WE
MIGHT VERIFY A BIT TOO HIGH AND OPPOSITE ENDS OF FORECAST AREA
BECAUSE OF ADDITIONAL CLOUDS.

THE CENTER OF A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER OHIO
LATE THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS NOSING EASTWARD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MSLP FIELD TODAY SINCE
PRESSURE RISES FROM THE HIGH BUILDING EASTWARD WILL BE OFFSET BY A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS.

FORECAST MAX TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY ARE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY (MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER TODAY). THIS MEANS
ANOTHER COMFORTABLE LATE SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN LATE WHEN THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOCATED JUST TO OUR WEST.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN WITH NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPS FOR OUR RURAL AREAS AND SHELTERED VALLEYS UNDER THIS SETUP.
SUB-50 TEMPS ARE FORECAST FOR OUR COOLEST SPOTS IN THE POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRI THRU MON NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND THEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT/SAT NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA SAT/SUN AND THEN FALL APART BY MON.
THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. EXTRA
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE MOISTURE
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH DRAWS SOME MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRI AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL
SAT THRU MON. HIGHS MAY APPROACH THE 90S ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND
DELMARVA AREAS.

TUE...THE `WETTER` DAY OF THE EXTENDED WHEN POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH/WEST RISE TO LOW CHC/SLGT CHC AS SOME UPPER VORT ENERGY AND
MOISTURE MAY COMBINE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THE LATEST EC
SHOWS THAT THE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE DEL VALLEY AND SE PA
ALSO...THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS FURTHER. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 80S
SOUTH.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY FCST WITH TEMPS CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

18Z TAFS WILL BE VFR.

AFTERNOON...VERY SIMILAR TO YESTERDAY WITH LIKELY VFR CU CIGS
AT NORTHWEST AIRPORTS AND POSSIBLY KABE AND KRDG. LESS AND LESS
LIKELY FARTHER SOUTHEAST ONE IS LOCATED. NEAR THE COAST THERE WILL
ALSO BE SOME CIRRUS CLOSE TO 35K. NORTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
MAY BACK A BIT MORE TO THE WEST AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. THE
SEA BREEZE FRONT IS PREDICTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE IMMEDIATE NJ
COAST AGAIN. BUT WE ARE NOT AS CONFIDENT ABOUT KACY GETTING
AFFECTED, IT SHOULD BE CLOSER TODAY.

TONIGHT...SOME RESIDUAL VFR CLOUDINESS NORTHWEST THIS EVENING AND
MAINLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE,
POSSIBLY CALM AT SMALLER AIRPORTS. THE MOST FAVORED WIND DIRECTION
WOULD BE NORTHWEST TO NORTH. LATE AT NIGHT ADDITIONAL CLOUDS ARE
POSSIBLE FAR NORTHWEST (BEYOND TAF SITES) AIRPORTS. THIS MIGHT
PRODUCE SOME MVFR CIG AGAIN. CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH. ALSO WITH
ANOTHER NIGHT IN THE SAME AIR MASS, THE MOST FOG PRONED SMALLER
AIRPORTS MIGHT HAVE SOME GROUND FOG FORM TOWARD MORNING.

FRIDAY...LESS OVERALL VFR CLOUDINESS. CUMULUS COVERAGE SHOULD BE
FEW TO SCATTERED. FAVORED LIGHT NORTH WINDS IN THE MORNING SHOULD
BECOME 5 TO 10 KNOTS AT THE END OF THE TAF FCST PERIOD. A SEA
BREEZE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE A STRONGER INLAND INTRUSION
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THE SOUTHEAST WIND SHIFT AT KACY REPRESENTS
THAT FEATURE.

OUTLOOK...
FRI THRU MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG
POSSIBLE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO WX-RELATED MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 5-
15 KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND MIDDAY
BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SEA-BREEZE FRONT. NW WINDS 5-15 KT EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2-
3 FT ARE FORECAST.


OUTLOOK...
FAIR...SUB-SCA...CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS. SEAS MOSTLY 2
TO 4 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FEET ACROSS DEL BAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 271607
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1207 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE DELAWARE VALLEY BY FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST BETWEEN THE
ESTF UPDATES AND PLAN ON KEEPING THE COVERAGE GOING. THICKER
CIRRUS LOOKS LIKE IT HAS MADE ITS NORTHWESTERNMOST INTRUSION INTO
SERN NJ AND SRN DELAWARE AND SHOULD EASE OFFSHORE REST OF
AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND 850MB COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING HAS BEEN A BIT MORE ROBUST NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
ARE RISING WITHIN EXPECTATIONS. WE MIGHT VERIFY A BIT TOO HIGH
AND OPPOSITE ENDS OF FORECAST AREA BECAUSE OF ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS.

THE CENTER OF A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER OHIO
LATE THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS NOSING EASTWARD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MSLP FIELD TODAY SINCE
PRESSURE RISES FROM THE HIGH BUILDING EASTWARD WILL BE OFFSET BY A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS.

FORECAST MAX TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY ARE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY (MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER TODAY). THIS MEANS
ANOTHER COMFORTABLE LATE SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN LATE WHEN THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOCATED JUST TO OUR WEST.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN WITH NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPS FOR OUR RURAL AREAS AND SHELTERED VALLEYS UNDER THIS SETUP.
SUB-50 TEMPS ARE FORECAST FOR OUR COOLEST SPOTS IN THE POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRI THRU MON NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND THEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT/SAT NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA SAT/SUN AND THEN FALL APART BY MON.
THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. EXTRA
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE MOISTURE
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH DRAWS SOME MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRI AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL
SAT THRU MON. HIGHS MAY APPROACH THE 90S ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND
DELMARVA AREAS.

TUE...THE `WETTER` DAY OF THE EXTENDED WHEN POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH/WEST RISE TO LOW CHC/SLGT CHC AS SOME UPPER VORT ENERGY AND
MOISTURE MAY COMBINE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THE LATEST EC
SHOWS THAT THE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE DEL VALLEY AND SE PA
ALSO...THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS FURTHER. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 80S
SOUTH.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY FCST WITH TEMPS CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. DAYTIME CU FIELD WILL BE FEW TO SCT THIS
AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KT WILL BE OUT OF THE NW THIS MORNING, BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NW WINDS 5 KT OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI THRU MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG
   POSSIBLE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO WX-RELATED MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 5-
15 KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND MIDDAY
BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SEA-BREEZE FRONT. NW WINDS 5-15 KT EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2-
3 FT ARE FORECAST.


OUTLOOK...
FAIR...SUB-SCA...CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS. SEAS MOSTLY 2
TO 4 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FEET ACROSS DEL BAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 271607
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1207 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE DELAWARE VALLEY BY FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
WE HAVE INCREASED SKY COVER NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST BETWEEN THE
ESTF UPDATES AND PLAN ON KEEPING THE COVERAGE GOING. THICKER
CIRRUS LOOKS LIKE IT HAS MADE ITS NORTHWESTERNMOST INTRUSION INTO
SERN NJ AND SRN DELAWARE AND SHOULD EASE OFFSHORE REST OF
AFTERNOON. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AROUND 850MB COUPLED WITH DAYTIME
HEATING HAS BEEN A BIT MORE ROBUST NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
ARE RISING WITHIN EXPECTATIONS. WE MIGHT VERIFY A BIT TOO HIGH
AND OPPOSITE ENDS OF FORECAST AREA BECAUSE OF ADDITIONAL
CLOUDS.

THE CENTER OF A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER OHIO
LATE THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS NOSING EASTWARD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MSLP FIELD TODAY SINCE
PRESSURE RISES FROM THE HIGH BUILDING EASTWARD WILL BE OFFSET BY A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
LIGHT NW WINDS WILL BACK SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTERNOON
AS THE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS.

FORECAST MAX TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY ARE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY (MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER TODAY). THIS MEANS
ANOTHER COMFORTABLE LATE SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN LATE WHEN THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOCATED JUST TO OUR WEST.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN WITH NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPS FOR OUR RURAL AREAS AND SHELTERED VALLEYS UNDER THIS SETUP.
SUB-50 TEMPS ARE FORECAST FOR OUR COOLEST SPOTS IN THE POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRI THRU MON NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND THEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT/SAT NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA SAT/SUN AND THEN FALL APART BY MON.
THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. EXTRA
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE MOISTURE
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH DRAWS SOME MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRI AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL
SAT THRU MON. HIGHS MAY APPROACH THE 90S ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND
DELMARVA AREAS.

TUE...THE `WETTER` DAY OF THE EXTENDED WHEN POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH/WEST RISE TO LOW CHC/SLGT CHC AS SOME UPPER VORT ENERGY AND
MOISTURE MAY COMBINE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THE LATEST EC
SHOWS THAT THE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE DEL VALLEY AND SE PA
ALSO...THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS FURTHER. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 80S
SOUTH.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY FCST WITH TEMPS CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. DAYTIME CU FIELD WILL BE FEW TO SCT THIS
AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KT WILL BE OUT OF THE NW THIS MORNING, BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NW WINDS 5 KT OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI THRU MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG
   POSSIBLE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO WX-RELATED MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 5-
15 KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND MIDDAY
BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SEA-BREEZE FRONT. NW WINDS 5-15 KT EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2-
3 FT ARE FORECAST.


OUTLOOK...
FAIR...SUB-SCA...CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS. SEAS MOSTLY 2
TO 4 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FEET ACROSS DEL BAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 271324
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE DELAWARE VALLEY BY FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. TEMPERATURES ERRORS THRU
9 AM WERE A 2:1 RATIO OF RISING A COUPLE OF DEGREES FASTER THAN
EXPECTED. WHILE 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE WITH MAX
TEMPS, THE FORMER IS TELLING US TO STAY THE COURSE AS THE
LAUNCHING TEMPS ARE HIGHER. WE ARE SEEING SOME OF THE JET STREAM
CIRRUS GETTING INTO LOWER DELAWARE. NORTHWEST PROGRESSION SEEMS
TO BE STOPPING. 12Z SOUNDINGS STATE CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE
REACHED, BUT WITH TROF FLATTENING AND SHORT WAVE EXITING CONTINUE
WITH THE IDEA OF LESS AFTERNOON COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY.


THE CENTER OF A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN
OHIO THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS NOSING EASTWARD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OCCURRED IN MANY LOCATIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS, WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN A RATHER COOL START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPS
CURRENTLY IN THE 50S. MILDER TEMPS IN THE 60S WERE NOTED IN THE
URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES DUE TO A PERSISTENT NW WIND LAST NIGHT
AND OTHER MICRO-SCALE FACTORS.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MSLP FIELD TODAY SINCE
PRESSURE RISES FROM THE HIGH BUILDING EASTWARD WILL BE OFFSET BY A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
LIGHT NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS.

FORECAST MAX TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY ARE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY (MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER TODAY). THIS MEANS
ANOTHER COMFORTABLE LATE SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN LATE WHEN THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOCATED JUST TO OUR WEST.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN WITH NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPS FOR OUR RURAL AREAS AND SHELTERED VALLEYS UNDER THIS SETUP.
SUB-50 TEMPS ARE FORECAST FOR OUR COOLEST SPOTS IN THE POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRI THRU MON NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND THEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT/SAT NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA SAT/SUN AND THEN FALL APART BY MON.
THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. EXTRA
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE MOISTURE
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH DRAWS SOME MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRI AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL
SAT THRU MON. HIGHS MAY APPROACH THE 90S ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND
DELMARVA AREAS.

TUE...THE `WETTER` DAY OF THE EXTENDED WHEN POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH/WEST RISE TO LOW CHC/SLGT CHC AS SOME UPPER VORT ENERGY AND
MOISTURE MAY COMBINE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THE LATEST EC
SHOWS THAT THE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE DEL VALLEY AND SE PA
ALSO...THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS FURTHER. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 80S
SOUTH.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY FCST WITH TEMPS CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. DAYTIME CU FIELD WILL BE FEW TO SCT THIS
AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KT WILL BE OUT OF THE NW THIS MORNING, BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NW WINDS 5 KT OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI THRU MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG
   POSSIBLE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO WX-RELATED MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 5-
15 KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND MIDDAY
BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SEA-BREEZE FRONT. NW WINDS 5-15 KT EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2-
3 FT ARE FORECAST.


OUTLOOK...
FAIR...SUB-SCA...CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS. SEAS MOSTLY 2
TO 4 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FEET ACROSS DEL BAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 271324
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
924 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE DELAWARE VALLEY BY FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO BIG CHANGES WITH THIS ESTF UPDATE. TEMPERATURES ERRORS THRU
9 AM WERE A 2:1 RATIO OF RISING A COUPLE OF DEGREES FASTER THAN
EXPECTED. WHILE 12Z SOUNDINGS ARE FAIRLY CONSERVATIVE WITH MAX
TEMPS, THE FORMER IS TELLING US TO STAY THE COURSE AS THE
LAUNCHING TEMPS ARE HIGHER. WE ARE SEEING SOME OF THE JET STREAM
CIRRUS GETTING INTO LOWER DELAWARE. NORTHWEST PROGRESSION SEEMS
TO BE STOPPING. 12Z SOUNDINGS STATE CONVECTIVE TEMPS SHOULD BE
REACHED, BUT WITH TROF FLATTENING AND SHORT WAVE EXITING CONTINUE
WITH THE IDEA OF LESS AFTERNOON COVERAGE THAN YESTERDAY.


THE CENTER OF A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER EASTERN
OHIO THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS NOSING EASTWARD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OCCURRED IN MANY LOCATIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS, WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN A RATHER COOL START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPS
CURRENTLY IN THE 50S. MILDER TEMPS IN THE 60S WERE NOTED IN THE
URBAN AND COASTAL LOCALES DUE TO A PERSISTENT NW WIND LAST NIGHT
AND OTHER MICRO-SCALE FACTORS.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MSLP FIELD TODAY SINCE
PRESSURE RISES FROM THE HIGH BUILDING EASTWARD WILL BE OFFSET BY A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
LIGHT NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS.

FORECAST MAX TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY ARE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY (MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER TODAY). THIS MEANS
ANOTHER COMFORTABLE LATE SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN LATE WHEN THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOCATED JUST TO OUR WEST.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN WITH NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPS FOR OUR RURAL AREAS AND SHELTERED VALLEYS UNDER THIS SETUP.
SUB-50 TEMPS ARE FORECAST FOR OUR COOLEST SPOTS IN THE POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRI THRU MON NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND THEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT/SAT NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA SAT/SUN AND THEN FALL APART BY MON.
THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. EXTRA
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE MOISTURE
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH DRAWS SOME MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRI AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL
SAT THRU MON. HIGHS MAY APPROACH THE 90S ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND
DELMARVA AREAS.

TUE...THE `WETTER` DAY OF THE EXTENDED WHEN POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH/WEST RISE TO LOW CHC/SLGT CHC AS SOME UPPER VORT ENERGY AND
MOISTURE MAY COMBINE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THE LATEST EC
SHOWS THAT THE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE DEL VALLEY AND SE PA
ALSO...THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS FURTHER. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 80S
SOUTH.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY FCST WITH TEMPS CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. DAYTIME CU FIELD WILL BE FEW TO SCT THIS
AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KT WILL BE OUT OF THE NW THIS MORNING, BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NW WINDS 5 KT OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI THRU MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG
   POSSIBLE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO WX-RELATED MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 5-
15 KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND MIDDAY
BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SEA-BREEZE FRONT. NW WINDS 5-15 KT EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2-
3 FT ARE FORECAST.


OUTLOOK...
FAIR...SUB-SCA...CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS. SEAS MOSTLY 2
TO 4 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FEET ACROSS DEL BAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 270734
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE DELAWARE VALLEY BY FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CENTER OF A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS NOSING EASTWARD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OCCURRED IN MANY LOCATIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS, WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN A RATHER COOL START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY
IN THE 50S. MILDER TEMPS IN THE 60S WERE NOTED IN THE URBAN AND
COASTAL LOCALES DUE TO A PERSISTENT NW WIND LAST NIGHT AND OTHER
MICRO-SCALE FACTORS.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MSLP FIELD TODAY SINCE
PRESSURE RISES FROM THE HIGH BUILDING EASTWARD WILL BE OFFSET BY A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
LIGHT NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS.

FORECAST MAX TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY ARE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY (MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER TODAY). THIS MEANS
ANOTHER COMFORTABLE LATE SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE.

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT LATER IN THE MORNING (ONCE THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THRU) BEFORE A CU FIELD DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM / FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN LATE WHEN THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOCATED JUST TO OUR WEST.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN WITH NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPS FOR OUR RURAL AREAS AND SHELTERED VALLEYS UNDER THIS SETUP.
SUB-50 TEMPS ARE FORECAST FOR OUR COOLEST SPOTS IN THE POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRI THRU MON NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND THEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT/SAT NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA SAT/SUN AND THEN FALL APART BY MON.
THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. EXTRA
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE MOISTURE
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH DRAWS SOME MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRI AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL
SAT THRU MON. HIGHS MAY APPROACH THE 90S ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND
DELMARVA AREAS.

TUE...THE `WETTER` DAY OF THE EXTENDED WHEN POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH/WEST RISE TO LOW CHC/SLGT CHC AS SOME UPPER VORT ENERGY AND
MOISTURE MAY COMBINE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THE LATEST EC
SHOWS THAT THE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE DEL VALLEY AND SE PA
ALSO...THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS FURTHER. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 80S
SOUTH.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY FCST WITH TEMPS CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND 9 KFT
SHOULD SCT OUT OVER RDG AND ABE AFTER SUNRISE. DAYTIME CU FIELD WILL
BE FEW TO SCT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KT WILL BE OUT OF THE NW THIS MORNING, BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NW WINDS 5 KT OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI THRU MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG
   POSSIBLE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO WX-RELATED MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 5-
15 KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND MIDDAY
BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SEA-BREEZE FRONT. NW WINDS 5-15 KT EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2-
3 FT ARE FORECAST.


OUTLOOK...
FAIR...SUB-SCA...CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS. SEAS MOSTLY 2
TO 4 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FEET ACROSS DEL BAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 270734
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY TODAY WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE DELAWARE VALLEY BY FRIDAY AND THEN MOVE OFFSHORE THIS WEEKEND. A
WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL AFFECT THE WEATHER SUNDAY
AND INTO EARLY MONDAY. MORE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE CENTER OF A 1022 MB SURFACE HIGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE MIDWEST
EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS NOSING EASTWARD
INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. DECOUPLING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER
OCCURRED IN MANY LOCATIONS UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS, WHICH
HAS RESULTED IN A RATHER COOL START TO THE DAY WITH TEMPS CURRENTLY
IN THE 50S. MILDER TEMPS IN THE 60S WERE NOTED IN THE URBAN AND
COASTAL LOCALES DUE TO A PERSISTENT NW WIND LAST NIGHT AND OTHER
MICRO-SCALE FACTORS.

MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE MSLP FIELD TODAY SINCE
PRESSURE RISES FROM THE HIGH BUILDING EASTWARD WILL BE OFFSET BY A
WEAK SURFACE TROUGH THAT DEVELOPS TO THE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
LIGHT NW WINDS THIS MORNING WILL BACK SLIGHTLY OUT OF THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS.

FORECAST MAX TEMPS AND DEWPOINTS FOR TODAY ARE VERY CLOSE TO WHAT WE
SAW YESTERDAY (MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER TODAY). THIS MEANS
ANOTHER COMFORTABLE LATE SUMMER DAY IS IN STORE.

MID-LEVEL CLOUDS OVER OUR NORTHWESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING ARE
EXPECTED TO SCATTER OUT LATER IN THE MORNING (ONCE THE MID-LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS SWINGS THRU) BEFORE A CU FIELD DEVELOPS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE, CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE MINIMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM / FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD EASTWARD TONIGHT. THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL WEAKEN LATE WHEN THE CENTER OF THE HIGH IS EXPECTED TO
BE LOCATED JUST TO OUR WEST.

THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD DECOUPLE ONCE AGAIN WITH NEARLY IDEAL
RADIATIONAL CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WENT BELOW STAT GUIDANCE FOR LOW
TEMPS FOR OUR RURAL AREAS AND SHELTERED VALLEYS UNDER THIS SETUP.
SUB-50 TEMPS ARE FORECAST FOR OUR COOLEST SPOTS IN THE POCONOS AND
NORTHWEST NJ.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRI THRU MON NIGHT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA AND THEN
WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE SAT/SAT NIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL CROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA SAT/SUN AND THEN FALL APART BY MON.
THESE FEATURES WILL KEEP DRY WEATHER ACROSS OUR REGION. EXTRA
CLOUDINESS WILL BE ACROSS THE REGION SUN/SUN NIGHT AS THE MOISTURE
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE HIGH DRAWS SOME MOISTURE BACK ACROSS THE
REGION. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FRI AND THEN ABOVE NORMAL
SAT THRU MON. HIGHS MAY APPROACH THE 90S ACROSS THE DEL VALLEY AND
DELMARVA AREAS.

TUE...THE `WETTER` DAY OF THE EXTENDED WHEN POPS ACROSS THE
NORTH/WEST RISE TO LOW CHC/SLGT CHC AS SOME UPPER VORT ENERGY AND
MOISTURE MAY COMBINE FOR SOME AFTERNOON SHOWERS. THE LATEST EC
SHOWS THAT THE SHOWERS MAY AFFECT THE DEL VALLEY AND SE PA
ALSO...THERE IS PLENTY OF TIME TO ASSESS FURTHER. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS LOW/MID 80S NORTH AND MID/UPPER 80S
SOUTH.

TUE NIGHT THRU WED...MORE HIGH PRESSURE AND SUMMER-LIKE WARMTH
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY FCST WITH TEMPS CONTINUING ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE,
KRDG, KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR TODAY AND TONIGHT. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WITH CIGS AROUND 9 KFT
SHOULD SCT OUT OVER RDG AND ABE AFTER SUNRISE. DAYTIME CU FIELD WILL
BE FEW TO SCT THIS AFTERNOON.

LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KT WILL BE OUT OF THE NW THIS MORNING, BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY THIS AFTERNOON. LIGHT NW WINDS 5 KT OR LESS ARE
EXPECTED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI THRU MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. SOME PATCHY FOG
   POSSIBLE DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.MARINE...
NO WX-RELATED MARINE HAZARDS EXPECTED TODAY AND TONIGHT. NW WINDS 5-
15 KT THIS MORNING WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE AROUND MIDDAY
BEFORE SOUTHERLY WINDS DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SEA-BREEZE FRONT. NW WINDS 5-15 KT EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT. SEAS OF 2-
3 FT ARE FORECAST.


OUTLOOK...
FAIR...SUB-SCA...CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE WATERS. SEAS MOSTLY 2
TO 4 FEET ON THE OCEAN AND 1 TO 2 FEET ACROSS DEL BAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...KLEIN
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...KLEIN/O`HARA
MARINE...KLEIN/O`HARA




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