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000
FXUS61 KPHI 310108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
908 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY, BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A
FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY,
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED PAST MOUNT POCONO AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO
BERKS CO AND LEHIGH VALLEY WITHIN ONE TO TWO HOURS. IT SHOULD
SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH DRY
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 60S AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 MPH OR LESS.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NJ THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WHERE THERE WERE HIGHER RAIN TOTALS AND THE FRONT MAY BE
A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE. THEN, NEAR DAWN, THERE MAY BE SOME MORE
PATCHY RADIATION FOG IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND BERKS CO WHICH HAD
THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS IN THE AREA EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST FOR
FRIDAY. DEW POINT READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE 50S AT
MOST LOCATIONS, SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN TODAY. EVEN
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
FRIDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES EXCEPT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND AT 6 TO 12 MPH IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT
THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN-TO-
RUN OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THIS REGARD...THUS RELIED
ON THE GEFS/ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE MAIN IMPLICATION IS WITH
REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF AN OFFSHORE FRONT ON MON-TUE AND THE
TIMING OF A ANOTHER COLD FROPA ON TUE-WED.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT...W/
THE BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA NW OF I-95. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE THRU TUE AND MAY EVEN WASH OUT. AS AFORMENTIONED
S/WV ENERGY ENTERS THE EAST CONUS TROUGH... THIS WILL TURN THE
FLOW MORE MERIDIONAL...W/ TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING N. THE BULK
OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.

THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WITH ANOTHER COLD FROPA
CURRENTLY TIMED IN THE LATE TUE/EARLY WED PERIOD. OVERALL...
EARLY TRENDS /D+5 TO D+7/ INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE NJ COAST AND WASH OUT. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF A BIG
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THRU D+7...SO THIS SOLUTION IS
PLAUSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PARALLELS THE
FRONT AS CURRENTLY INDICATED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DALIES...

SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND
POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...
SO COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE AS WELL AS HOW FAR SOUTH/EAST THESE
STORMS PROGRESS. AN APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH WILL LEAD TO STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT POOLS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED
AROUND 1 KJ...WHILE BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE
FACTORS ARE MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
EXHIBITING AN INVERTED-V PROFILE NEAR THE SURFACE...AS WELL AS
A HEALTHY D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
     AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....AS WELL AS H50
TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY
IS ANTICIPATED.

SUN...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT W/ HIGH PRES BRIEFLY MOVING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
DAY. THE GRADIENT MAY RELAX ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

MON...SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS S/WV IMPULSE SKIRTS BY
TO THE NORTH AND A LEE TROUGH SETS UP WEST OF I-95. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...AND POPS WERE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THE BEST CHC OF THUNDER IS
ALSO OVER THIS AREA...W/ MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BUT MAY BE CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COASTLINE ON MONDAY.

TUE THRU THU...THERE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE W/ THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUE/EARLY WED. IF THE FRONT STALLS...
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THRU THU.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, PATCHY LIGHT
RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND KTTN, KRDG, KABE, KACY AND KMIV
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION, AREAS AROUND
KRDG AND KABE WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE VERY WET GROUND SETTING THE
STAGE FOR RADIATION FOG. KTTN, KMIV, AND KACY THOUGH THEY DID NOT
HAVE AS MUCH RAIN EARLIER, WILL SEE THE DRIER AIR LATER, THUS
ARE STARTING WITH LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, IF NOT SOONER.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS MAY DROP BELOW 5 KNOTS
AT SOME LOCATIONS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA MAINLY CONFINED TO ABE AND TTN.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MON AND TUE...MAINLY VFR...W/ MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE TONIGHT. WITH THE
FRONT, THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AIR
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO EXCEED THE WATER TEMPERATURES AND
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING IS REDUCED.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD FAVOR THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO/JOHNSON
MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO/JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 310108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
908 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY, BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A
FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY,
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED PAST MOUNT POCONO AND SHOULD BE MOVING INTO
BERKS CO AND LEHIGH VALLEY WITHIN ONE TO TWO HOURS. IT SHOULD
SLOWLY PUSH THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA OVERNIGHT. WITH DRY
AIR ADVECTION EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT, CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR
TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP INTO THE 60S AT MOST
LOCATIONS WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFTING TO THE NORTHWEST. WIND
SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 MPH OR LESS.

PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NJ THROUGH
MIDNIGHT WHERE THERE WERE HIGHER RAIN TOTALS AND THE FRONT MAY BE
A BIT SLOWER TO ARRIVE. THEN, NEAR DAWN, THERE MAY BE SOME MORE
PATCHY RADIATION FOG IN THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND BERKS CO WHICH HAD
THE HIGHEST RAIN TOTALS IN THE AREA EARLIER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST FOR
FRIDAY. DEW POINT READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE 50S AT
MOST LOCATIONS, SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN TODAY. EVEN
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
FRIDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES EXCEPT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND AT 6 TO 12 MPH IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT
THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN-TO-
RUN OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THIS REGARD...THUS RELIED
ON THE GEFS/ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE MAIN IMPLICATION IS WITH
REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF AN OFFSHORE FRONT ON MON-TUE AND THE
TIMING OF A ANOTHER COLD FROPA ON TUE-WED.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT...W/
THE BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA NW OF I-95. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE THRU TUE AND MAY EVEN WASH OUT. AS AFORMENTIONED
S/WV ENERGY ENTERS THE EAST CONUS TROUGH... THIS WILL TURN THE
FLOW MORE MERIDIONAL...W/ TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING N. THE BULK
OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.

THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WITH ANOTHER COLD FROPA
CURRENTLY TIMED IN THE LATE TUE/EARLY WED PERIOD. OVERALL...
EARLY TRENDS /D+5 TO D+7/ INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE NJ COAST AND WASH OUT. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF A BIG
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THRU D+7...SO THIS SOLUTION IS
PLAUSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PARALLELS THE
FRONT AS CURRENTLY INDICATED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DALIES...

SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND
POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...
SO COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE AS WELL AS HOW FAR SOUTH/EAST THESE
STORMS PROGRESS. AN APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH WILL LEAD TO STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT POOLS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED
AROUND 1 KJ...WHILE BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE
FACTORS ARE MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
EXHIBITING AN INVERTED-V PROFILE NEAR THE SURFACE...AS WELL AS
A HEALTHY D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
     AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....AS WELL AS H50
TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY
IS ANTICIPATED.

SUN...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT W/ HIGH PRES BRIEFLY MOVING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
DAY. THE GRADIENT MAY RELAX ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

MON...SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS S/WV IMPULSE SKIRTS BY
TO THE NORTH AND A LEE TROUGH SETS UP WEST OF I-95. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...AND POPS WERE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THE BEST CHC OF THUNDER IS
ALSO OVER THIS AREA...W/ MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BUT MAY BE CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COASTLINE ON MONDAY.

TUE THRU THU...THERE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE W/ THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUE/EARLY WED. IF THE FRONT STALLS...
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THRU THU.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, PATCHY LIGHT
RADIATION FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND KTTN, KRDG, KABE, KACY AND KMIV
OVERNIGHT. DESPITE DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION, AREAS AROUND
KRDG AND KABE WILL LIKELY STILL HAVE VERY WET GROUND SETTING THE
STAGE FOR RADIATION FOG. KTTN, KMIV, AND KACY THOUGH THEY DID NOT
HAVE AS MUCH RAIN EARLIER, WILL SEE THE DRIER AIR LATER, THUS
ARE STARTING WITH LOW DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS. ANY FOG THAT DOES
DEVELOP SHOULD DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE, IF NOT SOONER.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS MAY DROP BELOW 5 KNOTS
AT SOME LOCATIONS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA MAINLY CONFINED TO ABE AND TTN.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MON AND TUE...MAINLY VFR...W/ MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY ON TUE.

&&

.MARINE...
A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE TONIGHT. WITH THE
FRONT, THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WIND
SPEEDS WILL LIKELY DECREASE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AIR
TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO EXCEED THE WATER TEMPERATURES AND
ATMOSPHERIC MIXING IS REDUCED.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD FAVOR THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO/JOHNSON
MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO/JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 301946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY, BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A
FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY,
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD REACHED THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR IN OUR REGION AT 330 PM. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND IT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER THE MAIN LINE OF PRECIPITATION PASSES.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESULTED IN A DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE CANCELLED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS TRAILING THE PRECIPITATION. IT WAS LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK, CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA AT MID AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT, BETWEEN ABOUT 1000 PM AND 200 AM.

CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP
INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST FOR
FRIDAY. DEW POINT READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE 50S AT
MOST LOCATIONS, SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN TODAY. EVEN
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
FRIDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES EXCEPT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND AT 6 TO 12 MPH IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT
THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN-TO-
RUN OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THIS REGARD...THUS RELIED
ON THE GEFS/ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE MAIN IMPLICATION IS WITH
REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF AN OFFSHORE FRONT ON MON-TUE AND THE
TIMING OF A ANOTHER COLD FROPA ON TUE-WED.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT...W/
THE BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA NW OF I-95. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE THRU TUE AND MAY EVEN WASH OUT. AS AFORMENTIONED
S/WV ENERGY ENTERS THE EAST CONUS TROUGH... THIS WILL TURN THE
FLOW MORE MERIDIONAL...W/ TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING N. THE BULK
OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.

THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WITH ANOTHER COLD FROPA
CURRENTLY TIMED IN THE LATE TUE/EARLY WED PERIOD. OVERALL...
EARLY TRENDS /D+5 TO D+7/ INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE NJ COAST AND WASH OUT. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF A BIG
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THRU D+7...SO THIS SOLUTION IS
PLAUSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PARALLELS THE
FRONT AS CURRENTLY INDICATED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DALIES...

SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND
POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...
SO COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE AS WELL AS HOW FAR SOUTH/EAST THESE
STORMS PROGRESS. AN APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH WILL LEAD TO STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT POOLS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED
AROUND 1 KJ...WHILE BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE
FACTORS ARE MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
EXHIBITING AN INVERTED-V PROFILE NEAR THE SURFACE...AS WELL AS
A HEALTHY D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
...AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....AS WELL AS H50
TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY
IS ANTICIPATED.

SUN...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT W/ HIGH PRES BRIEFLY MOVING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
DAY. THE GRADIENT MAY RELAX ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

MON...SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS S/WV IMPULSE SKIRTS BY
TO THE NORTH AND A LEE TROUGH SETS UP WEST OF I-95. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...AND POPS WERE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THE BEST CHC OF THUNDER IS
ALSO OVER THIS AREA...W/ MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BUT MAY BE CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COASTLINE ON MONDAY.

TUE THRU THU...THERE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE W/ THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUE/EARLY WED. IF THE FRONT STALLS...
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THRU THU.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS AFFECTING KTTN, KPNE, KPHL
AND KILG AROUND 1930Z. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND KRDG,
KABE AND KMIV LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS MAY DROP BELOW 5 KNOTS
AT SOME LOCATIONS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA MAINLY CONFINED TO ABE AND TTN.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MON AND TUE...MAINLY VFR...W/ MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY ON TUE.


&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE TONIGHT.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ON OUR WATERS OFF MONMOUTH COUNTY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
THEY SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
DECREASE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AIR TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO EXCEED THE
WATER TEMPERATURES AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING IS REDUCED.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD FAVOR THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A SOUTHEAST SWELL WITH A WAVE PERIOD OF 8 TO 10 SECONDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 301946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN STALL
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY, BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A
FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THIS FRONT MONDAY,
WHILE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. A STRONGER COLD FRONT
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TUESDAY, THEN STALL NEARBY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD REACHED THE INTERSTATE 95
CORRIDOR IN OUR REGION AT 330 PM. IT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND IT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST DURING THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL LIKELY LINGER FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
AFTER THE MAIN LINE OF PRECIPITATION PASSES.

THE ARRIVAL OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RESULTED IN A DROP IN
TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE CANCELLED THE EXCESSIVE HEAT
WARNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS TRAILING THE PRECIPITATION. IT WAS LOCATED
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK, CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND EASTERN WEST
VIRGINIA AT MID AFTERNOON. THE BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO PASS THROUGH
OUR REGION OVERNIGHT, BETWEEN ABOUT 1000 PM AND 200 AM.

CLEARING IS EXPECTED FOR TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO DROP
INTO THE 60S AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH A SOUTHWEST WIND SHIFTING TO THE
NORTHWEST. WIND SPEEDS SHOULD BE 10 MPH OR LESS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
DRY AIR WILL BUILD INTO OUR REGION FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WEST FOR
FRIDAY. DEW POINT READINGS ARE ANTICIPATED TO DROP INTO THE 50S AT
MOST LOCATIONS, SO IT WILL BE NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID THAN TODAY. EVEN
WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT, CONDITIONS WILL BE QUITE WARM ON
FRIDAY. MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 90 DEGREES EXCEPT IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN. A NORTHWEST TO WEST WIND AT 6 TO 12 MPH IS
ANTICIPATED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...

OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT
THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE RUN-TO-
RUN OPERATIONAL MODEL CONSISTENCY IN THIS REGARD...THUS RELIED
ON THE GEFS/ECENS ENSEMBLE MEANS. THE MAIN IMPLICATION IS WITH
REGARD TO THE PLACEMENT OF AN OFFSHORE FRONT ON MON-TUE AND THE
TIMING OF A ANOTHER COLD FROPA ON TUE-WED.

A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY NIGHT...W/
THE BEST CHC FOR SHRA/TSRA NW OF I-95. THIS FRONT WILL STALL
JUST OFFSHORE THRU TUE AND MAY EVEN WASH OUT. AS AFORMENTIONED
S/WV ENERGY ENTERS THE EAST CONUS TROUGH... THIS WILL TURN THE
FLOW MORE MERIDIONAL...W/ TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING N. THE BULK
OF THIS MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE.

THE NEXT CHC OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE WITH ANOTHER COLD FROPA
CURRENTLY TIMED IN THE LATE TUE/EARLY WED PERIOD. OVERALL...
EARLY TRENDS /D+5 TO D+7/ INDICATE THIS FRONT WILL STALL NEAR
THE NJ COAST AND WASH OUT. THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS OF A BIG
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN THRU D+7...SO THIS SOLUTION IS
PLAUSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IF THE MID-LEVEL FLOW PARALLELS THE
FRONT AS CURRENTLY INDICATED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DALIES...

SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND
POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...BUT MOISTURE MAY BE LIMITED...
SO COVERAGE IS QUESTIONABLE AS WELL AS HOW FAR SOUTH/EAST THESE
STORMS PROGRESS. AN APPROACHING S/WV TROUGH WILL LEAD TO STEEP
MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A WEAK COLD FRONT POOLS LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED
AROUND 1 KJ...WHILE BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE
FACTORS ARE MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS.
THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS...WITH MODEL SOUNDINGS
EXHIBITING AN INVERTED-V PROFILE NEAR THE SURFACE...AS WELL AS
A HEALTHY D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. SMALL HAIL IS ALSO POSSIBLE
...AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....AS WELL AS H50
TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY
IS ANTICIPATED.

SUN...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT W/ HIGH PRES BRIEFLY MOVING IN BEHIND
DEPARTING COLD FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY
DAY. THE GRADIENT MAY RELAX ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE TO DEVELOP
ALONG PORTIONS OF THE COAST.

MON...SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON AFTN AS S/WV IMPULSE SKIRTS BY
TO THE NORTH AND A LEE TROUGH SETS UP WEST OF I-95. MOISTURE IS
LIMITED...AND POPS WERE FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
CWA...CLOSER TO THE BETTER DYNAMICS. THE BEST CHC OF THUNDER IS
ALSO OVER THIS AREA...W/ MORE FAVORABLE CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS.
THE AFOREMENTIONED PLUME OF TROPICAL MOISTURE BUT MAY BE CLOSE
ENOUGH FOR INCREASED CLOUDINESS NEAR THE COASTLINE ON MONDAY.

TUE THRU THU...THERE REMAINS ABOVE AVERAGE UNCERTAINTY DURING
THIS TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL BE W/ THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUE/EARLY WED. IF THE FRONT STALLS...
SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE THRU THU.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WAS AFFECTING KTTN, KPNE, KPHL
AND KILG AROUND 1930Z. THE LINE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EASTWARD AND
IT SHOULD PASS OFF THE COAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO EARLY THIS EVENING WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS.

THE SKY IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS
ARE ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER, PATCHY LIGHT FOG IS POSSIBLE AROUND KRDG,
KABE AND KMIV LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY ON FRIDAY MORNING.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 5 TO 10 KNOTS THIS EVENING IS FORECAST TO
SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST OVERNIGHT. WIND SPEEDS MAY DROP BELOW 5 KNOTS
AT SOME LOCATIONS FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA MAINLY CONFINED TO ABE AND TTN.

SUN...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

MON AND TUE...MAINLY VFR...W/ MVFR POSSIBLE IN SHRA/TSRA...
ESPECIALLY ON TUE.


&&

.MARINE...

A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE TONIGHT.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS IS EXPECTED INTO THIS EVENING
WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS. LOCALIZED GUSTS NEAR 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE
ON OUR WATERS OFF MONMOUTH COUNTY INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. HOWEVER,
THEY SHOULD NOT BE WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO WARRANT A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY.

THE WIND IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST FOR LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY MORNING AT SPEEDS OF 10 TO 15 KNOTS. WIND SPEEDS WILL LIKELY
DECREASE ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS AIR TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO EXCEED THE
WATER TEMPERATURES AND ATMOSPHERIC MIXING IS REDUCED.

WAVE HEIGHTS ON OUR OCEAN WATERS SHOULD FAVOR THE 2 TO 4 FOOT RANGE.
WAVES ON DELAWARE BAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE 2 FEET OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...

FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...A BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WINDS AND SEAS ARE
POSSIBLE SAT NIGHT AND SUN MORNING WITH A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OTHERWISE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
PERIOD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A SOUTHEAST SWELL WITH A WAVE PERIOD OF 8 TO 10 SECONDS WILL
CONTINUE TO RESULT IN A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE COASTS OF NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE
FOR THE BALANCE OF TODAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/IOVINO
RIP CURRENTS...IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 301539
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1139 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN
STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A
FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THE FRONT AND
POSSIBLY MOVE CLOSER TO OUR COAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
ARRIVE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO ARRIVE DURING
TUESDAY, BEFORE ALSO STALLING NEARBY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE FINGER LAKES ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA DOWN INTO WEST VIRGINIA LATE THIS MORNING. A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND IT WAS APPROACHING SCRANTON, HARRISBURG AND THE WESTERN
SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON. AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD INTO
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR, THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AND THEY WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN. MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA REMAINS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE. IT SHOULD BE INTO THE ALLENTOWN AND READING AREAS
BY 200 PM AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
IN OUR REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 400 PM. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEARING THE COAST AT 600 PM.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MUCH
OF OUR AREA. READINGS SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF THE 80S IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DEW
POINT READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 TO 12 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK TOWARD THE
COAST AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND WILL END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND THEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE. AS THE FRONT PUSHES AWAY, WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME
CLEARING BEHIND IT AND AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILLY WILL
BE ABLE TO COOL OFF A BIT AND DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
OVERNIGHT. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY WILL HOLD ONTO
THE CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. EVEN WITH THE CLEARING, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND FOR A BIT AND PATCHY FOG WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION INTO
THE WEEKEND. DESPITE A WARM TO HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE, A SUBSTANTIAL
REDUCTION IN THE DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND EVEN FOR THE
WEEKEND OVERALL FOR THE CWA. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIALLY TRICKY CONVECTIVE CHCS, THEN THE
NEXT ONE ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE POSITIONING OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT WITH MOSTLY A WPC/CONTINUITY
BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR FRIDAY...AN INITIAL FRONT IS STALLED OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES
TRAPPED BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY REMAINING FRONTAL FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE, MEANWHILE A
NOTICEABLE DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE IT STILL
BEING WARM TO HOT ACROSS THE CWA, THE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT
IN A MUCH LESS HUMID FEEL /EVEN COOLER AT NIGHT/. THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOME ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST, AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY TRY TO MAKE A
RUN AT OUR NORTHWEST ZONES VERY LATE AT NIGHT. OVERALL, THIS LOOKS
LIKE A VERY SMALL CHC PLUS WITH THE INITIAL DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND THEREFORE WE OPTED TO LEAVE THE NIGHT TIME FRAME DRY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT WEAK RIPPLES OF
ENERGY ALONG IT REMAINS TO OUR EAST. A SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST
LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD
AGAIN LATER SATURDAY, HOWEVER ENOUGH DRYING MAY LIMIT MUCH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION
BY LATE SATURDAY FROM NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER
THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE AIRMASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME LOW
END CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE HAVE A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM GIVEN A
SIMILAR PATTERN AND THE DEW POINTS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE A BIT
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT. IF
THIS OCCURS AND WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR A TIME, THE FRONT MAY INCH BACK INTO OUR AREA TO HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTION MONDAY. THIS LOOKS WEAK OVERALL WITH THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINING MOSTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. TIED TO THIS
FORCING, ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SHEAR MAY AGAIN
SLIDE TO OUR NORTH. WE OPTED TO GO CLOSE TO THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE
WHICH CARRIES POPS OF LOW END CHC OR LESS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO WEAKEN IN THE
NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD SLOW OR EVEN
STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, WITH POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED IMPULSES ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. THERE IS MUCH
MORE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL GOVERN THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT
CONVECTIVE CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SOME MVFR CEILINGS WERE LINGERING IN OUR REGION AROUND 1530Z. THE
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, ARE EXPECTED TO REACH KRDG AND KABE BETWEEN 17-18Z. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH KILG, KPHL, KPNE
AND KTTN AROUND 20Z. THEY SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KMIV AND KACY
BETWEEN 22-00Z. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY,
BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SOME FOG EARLY MAINLY AT KMIV AND KACY,
OTHERWISE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING TO
NEAR 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY.

SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL. SOUTHWEST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND REACH THE AREA
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRECEDE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERALL. A LINGERING FRONT OFFSHORE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEARBY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY, WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND THE FULL MOON ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/YAROSH
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 301539
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1139 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN
STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A
FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THE FRONT AND
POSSIBLY MOVE CLOSER TO OUR COAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
ARRIVE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO ARRIVE DURING
TUESDAY, BEFORE ALSO STALLING NEARBY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE FINGER LAKES ACROSS
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA DOWN INTO WEST VIRGINIA LATE THIS MORNING. A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND IT WAS APPROACHING SCRANTON, HARRISBURG AND THE WESTERN
SUBURBS OF WASHINGTON. AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD INTO
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR, THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AND THEY WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN. MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA REMAINS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE. IT SHOULD BE INTO THE ALLENTOWN AND READING AREAS
BY 200 PM AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
IN OUR REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 400 PM. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEARING THE COAST AT 600 PM.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MUCH
OF OUR AREA. READINGS SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF THE 80S IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DEW
POINT READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 TO 12 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK TOWARD THE
COAST AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND WILL END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND THEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE. AS THE FRONT PUSHES AWAY, WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME
CLEARING BEHIND IT AND AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILLY WILL
BE ABLE TO COOL OFF A BIT AND DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
OVERNIGHT. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY WILL HOLD ONTO
THE CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. EVEN WITH THE CLEARING, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND FOR A BIT AND PATCHY FOG WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION INTO
THE WEEKEND. DESPITE A WARM TO HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE, A SUBSTANTIAL
REDUCTION IN THE DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND EVEN FOR THE
WEEKEND OVERALL FOR THE CWA. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIALLY TRICKY CONVECTIVE CHCS, THEN THE
NEXT ONE ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE POSITIONING OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT WITH MOSTLY A WPC/CONTINUITY
BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR FRIDAY...AN INITIAL FRONT IS STALLED OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES
TRAPPED BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY REMAINING FRONTAL FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE, MEANWHILE A
NOTICEABLE DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE IT STILL
BEING WARM TO HOT ACROSS THE CWA, THE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT
IN A MUCH LESS HUMID FEEL /EVEN COOLER AT NIGHT/. THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOME ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST, AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY TRY TO MAKE A
RUN AT OUR NORTHWEST ZONES VERY LATE AT NIGHT. OVERALL, THIS LOOKS
LIKE A VERY SMALL CHC PLUS WITH THE INITIAL DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND THEREFORE WE OPTED TO LEAVE THE NIGHT TIME FRAME DRY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT WEAK RIPPLES OF
ENERGY ALONG IT REMAINS TO OUR EAST. A SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST
LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD
AGAIN LATER SATURDAY, HOWEVER ENOUGH DRYING MAY LIMIT MUCH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION
BY LATE SATURDAY FROM NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER
THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE AIRMASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME LOW
END CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE HAVE A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM GIVEN A
SIMILAR PATTERN AND THE DEW POINTS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE A BIT
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT. IF
THIS OCCURS AND WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR A TIME, THE FRONT MAY INCH BACK INTO OUR AREA TO HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTION MONDAY. THIS LOOKS WEAK OVERALL WITH THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINING MOSTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. TIED TO THIS
FORCING, ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SHEAR MAY AGAIN
SLIDE TO OUR NORTH. WE OPTED TO GO CLOSE TO THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE
WHICH CARRIES POPS OF LOW END CHC OR LESS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO WEAKEN IN THE
NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD SLOW OR EVEN
STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, WITH POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED IMPULSES ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. THERE IS MUCH
MORE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL GOVERN THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT
CONVECTIVE CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SOME MVFR CEILINGS WERE LINGERING IN OUR REGION AROUND 1530Z. THE
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, ARE EXPECTED TO REACH KRDG AND KABE BETWEEN 17-18Z. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH KILG, KPHL, KPNE
AND KTTN AROUND 20Z. THEY SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KMIV AND KACY
BETWEEN 22-00Z. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY,
BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SOME FOG EARLY MAINLY AT KMIV AND KACY,
OTHERWISE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING TO
NEAR 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY.

SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL. SOUTHWEST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND REACH THE AREA
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRECEDE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERALL. A LINGERING FRONT OFFSHORE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEARBY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY, WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND THE FULL MOON ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/YAROSH
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...MEOLA




000
FXUS61 KPHI 301352
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
952 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN
STALLS TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD
CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A
FEW WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THE FRONT AND
POSSIBLY MOVE CLOSER TO OUR COAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO
ARRIVE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO ARRIVE DURING
TUESDAY, BEFORE ALSO STALLING NEARBY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE LINGERING IN PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AROUND 930 AM. THE LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND WEAKEN DURING THE BALANCE OF THE MORNING.

THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA DOWN INTO WEST VIRGINIA AT MID MORNING. A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WAS OUT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT AND IT EXTENDED THROUGH CENTRAL NEW YORK AND CENTRAL
PENNSYLVANIA. AS THE PRECIPITATION MOVES EASTWARD INTO
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR, THE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS AND THEY WILL LIKELY STRENGTHEN. MUCH OF OUR FORECAST
AREA REMAINS UNDER A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.

THE HRRR SEEMS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE TIMING OF THE
CONVECTIVE LINE. IT SHOULD BE INTO THE ALLENTOWN AND READING AREAS
BY 200 PM AND IT IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR
IN OUR REGION AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER 400 PM. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE NEARING THE COAST AT 600 PM.

MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MUCH
OF OUR AREA. READINGS SHOULD NOT GET OUT OF THE 80S IN THE
ELEVATED TERRAIN UP NORTH AND ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. DEW
POINT READINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 70S. WE WILL
CONTINUE THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE HIGHLY URBANIZED AREAS
ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

THE WIND SHOULD REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND 6 TO 12 MPH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK TOWARD THE
COAST AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND WILL END FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND THEN
FURTHER OFFSHORE. AS THE FRONT PUSHES AWAY, WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME
CLEARING BEHIND IT AND AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILLY WILL
BE ABLE TO COOL OFF A BIT AND DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S
OVERNIGHT. AREAS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY WILL HOLD ONTO
THE CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOWER 70S FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS. EVEN WITH THE CLEARING, LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND FOR A BIT AND PATCHY FOG WILL
REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION INTO
THE WEEKEND. DESPITE A WARM TO HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE, A SUBSTANTIAL
REDUCTION IN THE DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND EVEN FOR THE
WEEKEND OVERALL FOR THE CWA. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIALLY TRICKY CONVECTIVE CHCS, THEN THE
NEXT ONE ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE POSITIONING OF FRONTAL
BOUNDARIES WILL IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT WITH MOSTLY A WPC/CONTINUITY
BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR FRIDAY...AN INITIAL FRONT IS STALLED OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES
TRAPPED BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY REMAINING FRONTAL FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE, MEANWHILE A
NOTICEABLE DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE IT STILL
BEING WARM TO HOT ACROSS THE CWA, THE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT
IN A MUCH LESS HUMID FEEL /EVEN COOLER AT NIGHT/. THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOME ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST, AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY TRY TO MAKE A
RUN AT OUR NORTHWEST ZONES VERY LATE AT NIGHT. OVERALL, THIS LOOKS
LIKE A VERY SMALL CHC PLUS WITH THE INITIAL DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND THEREFORE WE OPTED TO LEAVE THE NIGHT TIME FRAME DRY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT WEAK RIPPLES OF
ENERGY ALONG IT REMAINS TO OUR EAST. A SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST
LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD
AGAIN LATER SATURDAY, HOWEVER ENOUGH DRYING MAY LIMIT MUCH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION
BY LATE SATURDAY FROM NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER
THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE AIRMASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME LOW
END CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE HAVE A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM GIVEN A
SIMILAR PATTERN AND THE DEW POINTS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE A BIT
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT. IF
THIS OCCURS AND WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR A TIME, THE FRONT MAY INCH BACK INTO OUR AREA TO HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTION MONDAY. THIS LOOKS WEAK OVERALL WITH THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINING MOSTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. TIED TO THIS
FORCING, ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SHEAR MAY AGAIN
SLIDE TO OUR NORTH. WE OPTED TO GO CLOSE TO THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE
WHICH CARRIES POPS OF LOW END CHC OR LESS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO WEAKEN IN THE
NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD SLOW OR EVEN
STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, WITH POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED IMPULSES ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. THERE IS MUCH
MORE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL GOVERN THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT
CONVECTIVE CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MVFR CEILINGS WERE LINGERING IN OUR REGION AROUND 1330Z.
THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT. SCATTERED CLOUDS OR VFR CEILINGS
ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, ARE EXPECTED TO REACH KRDG AND KABE BETWEEN 17-18Z. THE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO REACH KILG, KPHL, KPNE
AND KTTN AROUND 20Z. THEY SHOULD PUSH THROUGH KMIV AND KACY
BETWEEN 22-00Z. CLEARING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR TONIGHT.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY,
BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SOME FOG EARLY MAINLY AT KMIV AND KACY,
OTHERWISE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING TO
NEAR 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY.

SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL. SOUTHWEST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND REACH THE AREA
WATERS LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PRECEDE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERALL. A LINGERING FRONT OFFSHORE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEARBY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY, WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND THE FULL MOON ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/YAROSH
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...MEOLA



000
FXUS61 KPHI 300757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN STALLS
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OUR
AREA LATE SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A FEW WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY MOVE CLOSER
TO OUR COAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO ARRIVE. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY, BEFORE ALSO
STALLING NEARBY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR THE
PHILADELPHIA METRO AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO POP UP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST.

CLOUDS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO BE HAD
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK FROM
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO OUR AREA TODAY, REACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES
AROUND LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION, THERE WILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS
IT PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST.

STORMS LOOK MOST LIKELY TO ARRIVE TO THE REGION AFTER NOON, WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WITH A RIPE ATMOSPHERE AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS.

IN ADDITION, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF OUR AREA IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

ANOTHER HUMID DAY ON TAP AS WE SEE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE
NEAR 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S, APPROACHING 100. THEREFORE, WE HAVE CONTINUED
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE URBAN AREAS IN AND AROUND
PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK TOWARD THE COAST
AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND THEN FURTHER OFFSHORE. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES AWAY, WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME CLEARING BEHIND IT AND
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILLY WILL BE ABLE TO COOL OFF A BIT
AND DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT. AREAS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. EVEN WITH THE CLEARING, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND FOR
A BIT AND PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION INTO THE
WEEKEND. DESPITE A WARM TO HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE, A SUBSTANTIAL
REDUCTION IN THE DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND EVEN FOR THE
WEEKEND OVERALL FOR THE CWA. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIALLY TRICKY CONVECTIVE CHCS, THEN THE NEXT
ONE ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE POSITIONING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
WILL IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT WITH MOSTLY A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER.

FOR FRIDAY...AN INITIAL FRONT IS STALLED OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES
TRAPPED BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY REMAINING FRONTAL FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE, MEANWHILE A
NOTICEABLE DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE IT STILL
BEING WARM TO HOT ACROSS THE CWA, THE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT
IN A MUCH LESS HUMID FEEL /EVEN COOLER AT NIGHT/. THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOME ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST, AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY TRY TO MAKE A
RUN AT OUR NORTHWEST ZONES VERY LATE AT NIGHT. OVERALL, THIS LOOKS
LIKE A VERY SMALL CHC PLUS WITH THE INITIAL DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND THEREFORE WE OPTED TO LEAVE THE NIGHT TIME FRAME DRY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT WEAK RIPPLES OF
ENERGY ALONG IT REMAINS TO OUR EAST. A SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST
LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD
AGAIN LATER SATURDAY, HOWEVER ENOUGH DRYING MAY LIMIT MUCH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION
BY LATE SATURDAY FROM NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER
THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE AIRMASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME LOW
END CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE HAVE A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM GIVEN A
SIMILAR PATTERN AND THE DEW POINTS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE A BIT
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT. IF
THIS OCCURS AND WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR A TIME, THE FRONT MAY INCH BACK INTO OUR AREA TO HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTION MONDAY. THIS LOOKS WEAK OVERALL WITH THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINING MOSTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. TIED TO THIS
FORCING, ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SHEAR MAY AGAIN
SLIDE TO OUR NORTH. WE OPTED TO GO CLOSE TO THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE
WHICH CARRIES POPS OF LOW END CHC OR LESS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO WEAKEN IN THE
NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD SLOW OR EVEN
STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, WITH POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED IMPULSES ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. THERE IS MUCH
MORE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL GOVERN THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT
CONVECTIVE CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KRDG THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND ARE MOVING QUICKLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING, FULLY EXITING THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. MAJORITY OF THE
REGION REMAINS DRY WITH SHOWERS HAVING LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH SOME MVFR DECKS IMPACTING KRDG AND POSSIBLY KABE
THROUGH AROUND 12-13Z.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 16-18Z. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH TO THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST,
EXITING OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE BUT EXPECT
THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH KACY BETWEEN 22-01Z. CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY,
BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SOME FOG EARLY MAINLY AT KMIV AND KACY,
OTHERWISE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING TO
NEAR 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY.

SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL. SOUTHWEST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND REACH THE AREA WATERS
LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERALL. A LINGERING FRONT OFFSHORE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEARBY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY, WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND THE FULL MOON ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300757
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
357 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION TONIGHT, THEN STALLS
TO OUR SOUTH AND EAST. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OUR
AREA LATE SATURDAY BEFORE STALLING OFFSHORE SUNDAY. A FEW WEAK WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK ALONG THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY MOVE CLOSER
TO OUR COAST MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRIES TO ARRIVE. A STRONGER
COLD FRONT IS THEN FORECAST TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY, BEFORE ALSO
STALLING NEARBY ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR TODAY FOR THE
PHILADELPHIA METRO AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE STARTED TO POP UP ACROSS THE REGION THIS
MORNING AND ARE MOVING FAIRLY QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST.

CLOUDS WILL FILTER INTO THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE WEST. HOWEVER, THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE TO BE HAD
FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THROUGH TODAY. THE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK FROM
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO OUR AREA TODAY, REACHING OUR WESTERN ZONES
AROUND LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION, THERE WILL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH IT AS
IT PUSHES TOWARDS THE COAST.

STORMS LOOK MOST LIKELY TO ARRIVE TO THE REGION AFTER NOON, WITH A
GRADUAL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. WITH A RIPE ATMOSPHERE AND
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AROUND HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM
THAT DEVELOPS.

IN ADDITION, THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MUCH OF OUR AREA IN
A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THE GREATEST THREAT FROM
STRONGER STORMS WILL BE GUSTY TO POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WINDS.

ANOTHER HUMID DAY ON TAP AS WE SEE TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO RISE
NEAR 90 ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 90S, APPROACHING 100. THEREFORE, WE HAVE CONTINUED
THE EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FOR THE URBAN AREAS IN AND AROUND
PHILADELPHIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK TOWARD THE COAST
AND SHOULD MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AND WILL END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS
THE FRONT PUSHES OFF THE COAST AND THEN FURTHER OFFSHORE. AS THE
FRONT PUSHES AWAY, WE WILL ALSO SEE SOME CLEARING BEHIND IT AND
AREAS TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF PHILLY WILL BE ABLE TO COOL OFF A BIT
AND DROP DOWN INTO THE LOWER TO MID 60S OVERNIGHT. AREAS TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST OF PHILLY WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUD COVER A BIT LONGER
AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR OVERNIGHT
LOWS. EVEN WITH THE CLEARING, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY HANG AROUND FOR
A BIT AND PATCHY FOG WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM THE
GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY WITH SOME AMPLIFICATION INTO THE
WEEKEND. DESPITE A WARM TO HOT AIRMASS IN PLACE, A SUBSTANTIAL
REDUCTION IN THE DEW POINTS IS EXPECTED FRIDAY AND EVEN FOR THE
WEEKEND OVERALL FOR THE CWA. A WEAK FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE
SATURDAY WITH SOME POTENTIALLY TRICKY CONVECTIVE CHCS, THEN THE NEXT
ONE ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY BEFORE STALLING NEARBY WEDNESDAY. THERE
IS MORE UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETAILS ESPECIALLY NEXT WEEK AS THE
AMPLITUDE OF THE TROUGH AND THE POSITIONING OF FRONTAL BOUNDARIES
WILL IMPACT OUR SENSIBLE WEATHER. WE USED A MODEL BLEND FRIDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY, THEN WENT WITH MOSTLY A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER.

FOR FRIDAY...AN INITIAL FRONT IS STALLED OFFSHORE AS IT BECOMES
TRAPPED BETWEEN A RIDGE IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A TROUGH FROM
THE GREAT LAKES TO THE NORTHEAST. ANY REMAINING FRONTAL FORCING AND
ASSOCIATED CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN WELL OFFSHORE, MEANWHILE A
NOTICEABLE DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES INTO OUR AREA. DESPITE IT STILL
BEING WARM TO HOT ACROSS THE CWA, THE LOWER DEW POINTS WILL RESULT
IN A MUCH LESS HUMID FEEL /EVEN COOLER AT NIGHT/. THE AFOREMENTIONED
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AMPLIFIES SOME ESPECIALLY TO OUR NORTHWEST
THROUGH NORTHEAST, AND SOME UPSTREAM CONVECTION MAY TRY TO MAKE A
RUN AT OUR NORTHWEST ZONES VERY LATE AT NIGHT. OVERALL, THIS LOOKS
LIKE A VERY SMALL CHC PLUS WITH THE INITIAL DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE
AND THEREFORE WE OPTED TO LEAVE THE NIGHT TIME FRAME DRY.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT WEAK RIPPLES OF
ENERGY ALONG IT REMAINS TO OUR EAST. A SECONDARY FRONTAL ZONE IS
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY, AND THE GREATEST
LIFT AND SHEAR IS MOSTLY FROM NEAR OUR NORTHERN ZONES ON NORTHWARD
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THE DEW POINTS SHOULD START TO INCH BACK UPWARD
AGAIN LATER SATURDAY, HOWEVER ENOUGH DRYING MAY LIMIT MUCH
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. SOME GUIDANCE DOES INITIATE MORE CONVECTION
BY LATE SATURDAY FROM NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA TO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY THEN SLIDES IT SOUTHEASTWARD. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH SHEAR WITH
INCREASING INSTABILITY TO ALLOW FOR A GUSTY THUNDERSTORM, HOWEVER
THIS IS DEPENDENT ON THE AIRMASS MOISTENING UP SUFFICIENTLY AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE. FOR NOW, WE CONTINUED SOME LOW
END CHC POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

THE FRONT LOOKS TO STALL JUST OFFSHORE GIVEN WEAKER FLOW WITH A
SOUTHEASTERN EXTENT, HOWEVER SOME WEAK IMPULSES MAY TRACK ALONG IT.
IT APPEARS THAT ANY CONVECTION LEFTOVER WITH THE FRONT IS OFFSHORE,
THEREFORE WE HAVE A DRY SUNDAY. IT WILL CONTINUE TO BE WARM GIVEN A
SIMILAR PATTERN AND THE DEW POINTS WILL PROBABLY INCREASE A BIT
MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS FROM THE
WEST, IT MAY SUPPORT WEAK IMPULSES TRAVERSING THE OFFSHORE FRONT. IF
THIS OCCURS AND WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL FLOW TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FOR A TIME, THE FRONT MAY INCH BACK INTO OUR AREA TO HELP FOCUS SOME
CONVECTION MONDAY. THIS LOOKS WEAK OVERALL WITH THE MAIN FORCING
REMAINING MOSTLY ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION MONDAY. TIED TO THIS
FORCING, ANOTHER COLD FRONT ARRIVES DURING TUESDAY WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER SHEAR MAY AGAIN
SLIDE TO OUR NORTH. WE OPTED TO GO CLOSE TO THE 00Z WPC GUIDANCE
WHICH CARRIES POPS OF LOW END CHC OR LESS.

FOR WEDNESDAY...AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH STARTS TO WEAKEN IN THE
NORTHEAST, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM TUESDAY SHOULD SLOW OR EVEN
STALL IN OUR VICINITY. THIS COULD HELP FOCUS SOME CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ESPECIALLY DURING PEAK HEATING, WITH POSSIBLE
CONVECTIVELY INDUCED IMPULSES ARRIVING FROM THE WEST. THERE IS MUCH
MORE UNCERTAINTY THIS FAR OUT AS THE POSITIONING OF THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH WILL GOVERN THE FRONTAL ZONE PLACEMENT AND SUBSEQUENT
CONVECTIVE CHCS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A COUPLE OF LIGHT SHOWERS HAVE DEVELOPED NEAR KRDG THIS MORNING.
THESE SHOWERS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AND ARE MOVING QUICKLY OFF TO THE
NORTHEAST. SOME ADDITIONAL SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING, FULLY EXITING THE REGION BY LATE MORNING. MAJORITY OF THE
REGION REMAINS DRY WITH SHOWERS HAVING LITTLE TO NO IMPACT TO THE
TERMINALS THIS MORNING.

MAINLY MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS EXPECTED AT THE TERMINALS THROUGH
THIS MORNING WITH SOME MVFR DECKS IMPACTING KRDG AND POSSIBLY KABE
THROUGH AROUND 12-13Z.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT, ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE AREA BETWEEN 16-18Z. THE FRONT WILL
PUSH TO THROUGH THE TERMINALS FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST,
EXITING OFFSHORE LATE TONIGHT. TIMING IS STILL AN ISSUE BUT EXPECT
THE FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH KACY BETWEEN 22-01Z. CLEARING IS EXPECTED
TO OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS AROUND 5 TO 10 ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY,
BECOMING NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...A CHANCE OF SOME FOG EARLY MAINLY AT KMIV AND KACY,
OTHERWISE VFR. NORTHWEST WINDS AROUND 10 KNOTS, THEN DIMINISHING TO
NEAR 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY.

SATURDAY...VFR OVERALL. A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF KPHL. SOUTHWEST WINDS
5-10 KNOTS.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...VFR IS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.MARINE...
A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW OF AROUND 10 TO 15 KNOTS WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KNOTS IS EXPECTED ON THE AREA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS WILL
REMAIN AROUND 2 TO 4 FEET.

A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND REACH THE AREA WATERS
LATE TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA OVERALL. A LINGERING FRONT OFFSHORE
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, THEN ANOTHER FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE SATURDAY
AND POSSIBLY STALLS NEARBY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS IS FORECAST FOR
TODAY, WITH INCREASING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF A COLD
FRONT AND THE FULL MOON ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR PAZ070-
     071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...MEOLA
SHORT TERM...MEOLA
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...GORSE/MEOLA
MARINE...GORSE/MEOLA
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 300045
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
845 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A POTENTIALLY
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED PRECIP HAS ENDED ACRS THE DELMARVA.

MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME REMNANT
CONVECTION FROM VIRGINIA AND VICINITY WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE
INDICATED AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT THAT TIME.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND.

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
ARRIVES IN OUR REGION.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 200 TO 300 PM ON
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD,
REACHING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ABOUT 400 PM TO 500 PM AND THE
COAST TOWARD 700 PM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO, SOME OF THE MORE WELL DEVELOPED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WE ARE EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S BEFORE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL KEEP THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR HIGHLY
URBANIZED AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE
GFS...WHICH RESULTS IN MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW- PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GMEX. A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE AT THE D+5 TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE WITH A COLD FROPA ON SAT...AND ANOTHER LATE
TUE/EARLY WED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT INVOF THE OUTER BANKS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRA THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER
DELMARVA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
AND SLOW STORM MOTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY DOWN-
POURS. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRI...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE OUT OF
REACH...SO EVEN CU MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THE GRADIENT
MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE
AFTN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S W/ L90S IN DELMARVA ALONG
WITH A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR MASS.

SAT THRU SUN...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE COASTLINE SAT NIGHT. S/WV TROUGH ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION POOLS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A
SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED AROUND 1.5 KJ...WHILE
BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARE
MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS. ATTM...
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE GUSTY WINDS...WITH INVERTED-V MODEL
SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. HAIL IS
ALSO A THREAT...AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....
AS WELL AS H50 TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY IS ANTICIPATED. SUN...S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY.

MON THRU WED...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE OUTCOME HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH THE EAST
COAST TROUGH AMPLIFIES...WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR
NOT GULF MOISTURE MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH ON MON/TUE.
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON...W/
A BETTER CHANCE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TUE.
THE FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES THRU THE REGION...
SO WED MAY BE UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.


MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AROUND KRDG
AND KABE. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP CHCS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR EIGHT TAF SITES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 1900Z AND 2300Z. THERE ARE
STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING. LATER SHIFTS CAN REFINE.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD DECREASE
TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10
KNOTS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT AND FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN THE 06Z-12Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN AND MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. A SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU MON...SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS BEING FORECAST FOR THURSDAY,
WITH INCREASING S TO SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE CDFNT AND THE FULL
MOON ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/GORSE/IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 300045
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
845 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A POTENTIALLY
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED PRECIP HAS ENDED ACRS THE DELMARVA.

MOST OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME REMNANT
CONVECTION FROM VIRGINIA AND VICINITY WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND
OVER OUR FORECAST AREA LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE
INDICATED AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AT THAT TIME.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND.

MADE SOME MINOR CHANGES TO CURRENT FCST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
ARRIVES IN OUR REGION.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 200 TO 300 PM ON
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD,
REACHING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ABOUT 400 PM TO 500 PM AND THE
COAST TOWARD 700 PM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO, SOME OF THE MORE WELL DEVELOPED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WE ARE EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S BEFORE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL KEEP THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR HIGHLY
URBANIZED AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE
GFS...WHICH RESULTS IN MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW- PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GMEX. A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE AT THE D+5 TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE WITH A COLD FROPA ON SAT...AND ANOTHER LATE
TUE/EARLY WED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT INVOF THE OUTER BANKS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRA THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER
DELMARVA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
AND SLOW STORM MOTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY DOWN-
POURS. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRI...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE OUT OF
REACH...SO EVEN CU MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THE GRADIENT
MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE
AFTN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S W/ L90S IN DELMARVA ALONG
WITH A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR MASS.

SAT THRU SUN...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE COASTLINE SAT NIGHT. S/WV TROUGH ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION POOLS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A
SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED AROUND 1.5 KJ...WHILE
BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARE
MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS. ATTM...
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE GUSTY WINDS...WITH INVERTED-V MODEL
SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. HAIL IS
ALSO A THREAT...AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....
AS WELL AS H50 TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY IS ANTICIPATED. SUN...S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY.

MON THRU WED...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE OUTCOME HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH THE EAST
COAST TROUGH AMPLIFIES...WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR
NOT GULF MOISTURE MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH ON MON/TUE.
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON...W/
A BETTER CHANCE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TUE.
THE FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES THRU THE REGION...
SO WED MAY BE UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.


MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AROUND KRDG
AND KABE. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON THE OVERNIGHT PRECIP CHCS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR EIGHT TAF SITES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 1900Z AND 2300Z. THERE ARE
STILL SOME QUESTIONS REGARDING TIMING. LATER SHIFTS CAN REFINE.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD DECREASE
TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10
KNOTS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT AND FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN THE 06Z-12Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN AND MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. A SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU MON...SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS BEING FORECAST FOR THURSDAY,
WITH INCREASING S TO SWLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE CDFNT AND THE FULL
MOON ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO/NIERENBERG
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/GORSE/IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A POTENTIALLY
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THERE WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND ON DELAWARE BAY AT MID
AFTERNOON. AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TURN OVER THE ATMOSPHERE
IN THOSE AREAS, THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
AS WE GET INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND
IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING THE DAYTIME CUMULUS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD EARLY TONIGHT. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME REMNANT CONVECTION FROM VIRGINIA
AND VICINITY WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE INDICATED AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THAT TIME.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
ARRIVES IN OUR REGION.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 200 TO 300 PM ON
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD,
REACHING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ABOUT 400 PM TO 500 PM AND THE
COAST TOWARD 700 PM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO, SOME OF THE MORE WELL DEVELOPED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WE ARE EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S BEFORE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL KEEP THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR HIGHLY
URBANIZED AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE
GFS...WHICH RESULTS IN MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW- PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GMEX. A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE AT THE D+5 TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE WITH A COLD FROPA ON SAT...AND ANOTHER LATE
TUE/EARLY WED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT INVOF THE OUTER BANKS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRA THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER
DELMARVA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
AND SLOW STORM MOTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY DOWN-
POURS. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRI...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE OUT OF
REACH...SO EVEN CU MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THE GRADIENT
MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE
AFTN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S W/ L90S IN DELMARVA ALONG
WITH A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR MASS.

SAT THRU SUN...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE COASTLINE SAT NIGHT. S/WV TROUGH ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION POOLS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A
SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED AROUND 1.5 KJ...WHILE
BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARE
MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS. ATTM...
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE GUSTY WINDS...WITH INVERTED-V MODEL
SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. HAIL IS
ALSO A THREAT...AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....
AS WELL AS H50 TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY IS ANTICIPATED. SUN...S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY.

MON THRU WED...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE OUTCOME HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH THE EAST
COAST TROUGH AMPLIFIES...WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR
NOT GULF MOISTURE MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH ON MON/TUE.
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON...W/
A BETTER CHANCE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TUE.
THE FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES THRU THE REGION...
SO WED MAY BE UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES
INTO TONIGHT. THE DAYTIME CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AROUND KRDG
AND KABE. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR EIGHT TAF SITES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 1900Z AND 2300Z.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD DECREASE
TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10
KNOTS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT AND FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN THE 06Z-12Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN AND MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. A SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU MON...SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/GORSE/IOVINO




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291946
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
346 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. A WEAKENING
COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE THROUGH OUR REGION ON THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO
SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE EARLY NEXT WEEK. A POTENTIALLY
STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
THERE WERE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, DELAWARE AND ON DELAWARE BAY AT MID
AFTERNOON. AS THE CONVECTION CONTINUES TO TURN OVER THE ATMOSPHERE
IN THOSE AREAS, THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
AS WE GET INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO BE OVERHEAD THIS EVENING AND
IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT EASTWARD OVERNIGHT.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING THE DAYTIME CUMULUS TO DIMINISH THIS EVENING
WITH JUST SOME HIGH CLOUDS OVERHEAD EARLY TONIGHT. MOST OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME REMNANT CONVECTION FROM VIRGINIA
AND VICINITY WILL DRIFT NORTHEASTWARD AND OVER OUR FORECAST AREA
LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE INDICATED AN INCREASE IN CLOUD
COVER ALONG WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AT THAT TIME.

CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VERY WARM AND HUMID OVERNIGHT. MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE MOSTLY IN THE 70S WITH A LIGHT SOUTHWEST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY/...
THURSDAY IS FORECAST TO BEGIN WITH A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY ALONG WITH
SOME LINGERING RAIN SHOWERS. THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE FOR
THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS BEFORE THE CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST
ARRIVES IN OUR REGION.

WE ARE ANTICIPATING THAT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO
SPREAD INTO OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES AROUND 200 TO 300 PM ON
THURSDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL WORK ITS WAY SOUTHEASTWARD,
REACHING THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR ABOUT 400 PM TO 500 PM AND THE
COAST TOWARD 700 PM. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE FORECAST TO
INCREASE IN EXCESS OF 2 INCHES SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL. ALSO, SOME OF THE MORE WELL DEVELOPED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BRING STRONG WIND GUSTS.

WE ARE EXPECTING HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR 90 DEGREES IN MUCH OF OUR
FORECAST AREA. THE AIR WILL REMAIN VERY HUMID AND HEAT INDEX VALUES
SHOULD REACH THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 90S BEFORE THE AFTERNOON SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARRIVE. AS A RESULT, WE WILL KEEP THE EXCESSIVE
HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 600 PM THURSDAY FOR OUR HIGHLY
URBANIZED AREAS ALONG THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 10 MPH IS ANTICIPATED FOR THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

OVERVIEW...

A CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW OVER HUDSON`S BAY WILL MAINTAIN A TROUGH
IN THE EAST CONUS AND A GENERAL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE
PERIOD. THERE IS SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT REGARDING S/WV ENERGY
ENTERING THE GREAT LAKES REGION ON SUNDAY...AND TO WHAT EXTENT THE
TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS A RESULT. THE ECMWF IS MORE AMPLIFIED THAN THE
GFS...WHICH RESULTS IN MORE TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVING INTO THE
REGION...ASSOCIATED WITH LOW- PRESSURE DEVELOPMENT IN THE GMEX. A
LOT OF UNCERTAINTY HERE AT THE D+5 TIME FRAME. THE BEST CHANCES
FOR PRECIP WILL BE WITH A COLD FROPA ON SAT...AND ANOTHER LATE
TUE/EARLY WED. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THRU THE PERIOD.

DETAILS...

THU NIGHT...COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE OFFSHORE...AS A WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG IT INVOF THE OUTER BANKS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN CHCS FOR SHRA/TSRA THRU MUCH OF THE NIGHT OVER
DELMARVA. WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF 1.5 TO 2 INCHES
AND SLOW STORM MOTION...THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE HEAVY DOWN-
POURS. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SOME PATCHY GROUND FOG IN THE NORMALLY PRONE LOCATIONS.

FRI...S/WV RIDGING ALOFT ALONG WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS WILL
RESULT IN A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY. CONVECTIVE TEMPS MAY BE OUT OF
REACH...SO EVEN CU MAY BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. THE GRADIENT
MAY WEAKEN ENOUGH FOR A SEA-BREEZE DEVELOPMENT LATE IN THE
AFTN. MAX TEMPS WILL BE IN THE 80S W/ L90S IN DELMARVA ALONG
WITH A NOTICEABLY LESS HUMID AIR MASS.

SAT THRU SUN...THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE LEHIGH
VALLEY AND POCONOS LATE SAT AFTN/EARLY EVE...THEN SOUTHEAST
TOWARD THE COASTLINE SAT NIGHT. S/WV TROUGH ALOFT WILL LEAD
TO STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...WHILE A COLD FRONT MOVING
INTO THE REGION POOLS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...AND PROVIDES A
SOURCE OF LIFT. ML CAPE IS MODELED AROUND 1.5 KJ...WHILE
BULK SHEAR APPROACHES 40 KNOTS. BOTH OF THESE FACTORS ARE
MOST FAVORABLE OVER THE LEHIGH VALLEY AND POCONOS. ATTM...
MAIN THREAT APPEARS TO BE GUSTY WINDS...WITH INVERTED-V MODEL
SOUNDINGS...AS WELL AS D-CAPE APPROACHING 1.4 KJ. HAIL IS
ALSO A THREAT...AS WBZ VALUES FALL BLW 10 KFT IN THE AFTN....
AS WELL AS H50 TEMPS AROUND -12C. OTHERWISE...A PARTLY TO
MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY IS ANTICIPATED. SUN...S/WV RIDGING
ALOFT AS HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS IN BEHIND DEPARTING COLD
FRONT. THIS WILL PROMOTE A MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY DAY.

MON THRU WED...THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY DURING THIS
TIME FRAME. THE OUTCOME HINGES ON JUST HOW MUCH THE EAST
COAST TROUGH AMPLIFIES...WHICH WILL DETERMINE WHETHER OR
NOT GULF MOISTURE MAKES IT THIS FAR NORTH ON MON/TUE.
SOME DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE MON...W/
A BETTER CHANCE WITH THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT TUE.
THE FRONT MAY SLOW DOWN AS IT MOVES THRU THE REGION...
SO WED MAY BE UNSETTLED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT ALL EIGHT OF OUR TAF SITES
INTO TONIGHT. THE DAYTIME CUMULUS SHOULD DISSIPATE THIS EVENING.

MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD
OUR REGION LATE TONIGHT. SOME MVFR CEILINGS MAY DEVELOP AROUND KRDG
AND KABE. THE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO LIFT TO OUR NORTH
AND NORTHEAST DURING THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED TO APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST EARLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THE LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS OUR EIGHT TAF SITES FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST BETWEEN ABOUT 1900Z AND 2300Z.

A SOUTHWEST WIND AT 5 TO 10 KNOTS INTO THIS EVENING SHOULD DECREASE
TO 6 KNOTS OR LESS FOR TONIGHT. A SOUTHWEST WIND AROUND 8 TO 10
KNOTS IS EXPECTED FOR THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

THU NIGHT AND FRI...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED...EXCEPT FOR PATCHY
GROUND FOG IN THE 06Z-12Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...MAINLY VFR...WITH MVFR POSSIBLE SAT EVE AND
EARLY SAT NIGHT IN SHRA/TSRA.

SUN AND MON...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL INFLUENCE THE COASTAL WATERS OF NEW JERSEY
AND DELAWARE FOR TONIGHT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST ON
THURSDAY. A SOUTH SOUTHWEST WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 10 TO 15
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AROUND 20 KNOTS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WAVE HEIGHTS
ON OUR OCEAN WATERS MAY BUILD TO AROUND 4 FEET. CONDITIONS SHOULD
REMAIN JUST BELOW THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE LATE ON THURSDAY.

OUTLOOK...

FRI THRU MON...SUB-SCA WINDS AND SEAS EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FRANCK/GORSE
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...IOVINO
LONG TERM...FRANCK
AVIATION...FRANCK/IOVINO
MARINE...FRANCK/GORSE/IOVINO



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291320
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
920 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER IT THEN SLOWS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON WITH
HIGHEST DEW POINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY. THIS AREA IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
NEWD DEVELOPING INSTABILITY BURST WITH KI BY 00Z OF 34C ALONG MD`S
EASTERN SHORE.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

KPHL...AM 80 PCT CONFIDENT OF 94. MAX SHOULD BE WITHIN THE RANGE
OF 93-95F. LESS CONFIDENT OF DEW POINT IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME
WHEN MAX HI SHOULD OCCUR.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR
CRITERIA OF 100...BUT SINCE FCST NEAR 100 THURSDAY AND WARM NIGHTS
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT (LOWS OF 76-77)...WE ISSUED A TWO
DAY WARNING.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEA BREEZESDEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ
OVERNIGHT WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT AND OCCURRENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE
AND THIS MAY NEED MODIFICATION IN LATER FORECASTS, POSSIBLY
WESTWARD INTO E PA.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION
FORMING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THURSDAY THAT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS TROUGH IN PLACE,
WE ARE MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF IT THEREFORE A RATHER WARM
TO HOT AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BRING THE GREATEST CHC FOR CONVECTION, THEN WE AWAIT FOR
THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONGER FRONT TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH A
WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE, WE START TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
THE CWA WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS AT 850 MB IS FORECAST TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY THEREFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY.
IF THIS IS DELAYED LATE ENOUGH WITH MORE SUNSHINE, THEN HEAT
INDICES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER. THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCOMING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL OFFER SOME HEIGHT FALLS, HOWEVER A RATHER TOASTY
BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS TO START THURSDAY WITH MAYBE A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, WE THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THIS PUTS HEAT INDICES VERY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS OF MOST CONCERN FOR THE
URBAN CENTERS WHERE HEAT REMAINS TRAPPED DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
AS A RESULT, FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO
PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON AND THE IMMEDIATE NEARBY LOCATIONS WE
OPTED TO CARRY AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

REGARDING CONVECTION, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE
DAY HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE HOT AND HUMID
AIR MASS TO PROMOTE STORM INITIATION TO OUR WEST. IT IS NOT QUITE
CLEAR IF WE CAN GET SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING AS THE
MOISTURE POOLS, OTHERWISE WE FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE GREATEST SHEAR
THOUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHERE A MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX MOVES THROUGH. THE SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE A LINE/BROKEN LINE OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING
FROM THE WEST. IF ENOUGH ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR AND ALSO FACTORING
IN PRECIPITATION LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFTS, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
COULD RESULT. IN ADDITION, PW VALUES ABOUT 2 INCHES WILL PROMOTE
TORRENTIAL RAIN WITHIN CONVECTIVE CORES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS BUT THEN SLOWS AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE WE
KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE WITH DRYING OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
AREA. ANOTHER WARM TO EVEN HOT DAY ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT RIPPLES
OF ENERGY ALONG IT REMAIN TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TRUE COOLING
AFFECTS FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE RELEGATED WELL TO OUR
NORTH, THE VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS
MAY REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE. A WEAK FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS
TO MOVE THROUGH LATER SATURDAY, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE LIFT MAY
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE OFFSHORE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY DURING
TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THAT
TIME. IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS SHOULD ADD TO THE STRETCH OF 90+
DEGREE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KGED AND KESN LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST NEAR 15
KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOCATIONS 16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN
FOG/STRATUS/ HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA. CHANCE OF
A SHOWER OR TSTM VCNTY KPHL/KMIV TOWARD 10Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SOME FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN MOSTLY VFR. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE. SOME
CEILING AND ESPECIALLY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
A TIME AS A RESULT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS,
THEN DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-
NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE.
WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FRIDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
NEAR 5 KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44009 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS LESS 15KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE
THIS AFTN AND SLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE THOUGH THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, HOWEVER GUSTS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THE SEAS WILL RESPOND FOR A TIME, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD BE BELOW 5
FEET. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A SPOTTY MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN COUNTY PORTION OF NEW JERSEY
OTHERWISE A LOW RISK ELSEWHERE.

OF CONCERN IS THE CONTINUED HOT WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL SST`S
PLAYING A ROLE IN SWIMMER BEHAVIOR. EVEN WITH A LOW RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT FORMATION, THEY CAN OCCUR. IT TAKES ONLY ONE
TO BE FATAL. FOR OUR SAFETY, LETS SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF
LIFEGUARDS WHO ARE TRAINED TO WATCH, RESCUE AND OTHERWISE MINIMIZE
OCEAN WATER RELATED HAZARDS IN THE SWIMMING SURF ZONE. THANK YOU.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-
JULY 29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG
95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
CLIMATE...DRAG




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291320
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
920 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER IT THEN SLOWS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON WITH
HIGHEST DEW POINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY. THIS AREA IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
NEWD DEVELOPING INSTABILITY BURST WITH KI BY 00Z OF 34C ALONG MD`S
EASTERN SHORE.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

KPHL...AM 80 PCT CONFIDENT OF 94. MAX SHOULD BE WITHIN THE RANGE
OF 93-95F. LESS CONFIDENT OF DEW POINT IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME
WHEN MAX HI SHOULD OCCUR.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR
CRITERIA OF 100...BUT SINCE FCST NEAR 100 THURSDAY AND WARM NIGHTS
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT (LOWS OF 76-77)...WE ISSUED A TWO
DAY WARNING.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEA BREEZESDEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ
OVERNIGHT WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT AND OCCURRENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE
AND THIS MAY NEED MODIFICATION IN LATER FORECASTS, POSSIBLY
WESTWARD INTO E PA.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION
FORMING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THURSDAY THAT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS TROUGH IN PLACE,
WE ARE MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF IT THEREFORE A RATHER WARM
TO HOT AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BRING THE GREATEST CHC FOR CONVECTION, THEN WE AWAIT FOR
THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONGER FRONT TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH A
WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE, WE START TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
THE CWA WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS AT 850 MB IS FORECAST TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY THEREFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY.
IF THIS IS DELAYED LATE ENOUGH WITH MORE SUNSHINE, THEN HEAT
INDICES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER. THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCOMING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL OFFER SOME HEIGHT FALLS, HOWEVER A RATHER TOASTY
BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS TO START THURSDAY WITH MAYBE A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, WE THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THIS PUTS HEAT INDICES VERY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS OF MOST CONCERN FOR THE
URBAN CENTERS WHERE HEAT REMAINS TRAPPED DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
AS A RESULT, FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO
PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON AND THE IMMEDIATE NEARBY LOCATIONS WE
OPTED TO CARRY AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

REGARDING CONVECTION, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE
DAY HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE HOT AND HUMID
AIR MASS TO PROMOTE STORM INITIATION TO OUR WEST. IT IS NOT QUITE
CLEAR IF WE CAN GET SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING AS THE
MOISTURE POOLS, OTHERWISE WE FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE GREATEST SHEAR
THOUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHERE A MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX MOVES THROUGH. THE SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE A LINE/BROKEN LINE OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING
FROM THE WEST. IF ENOUGH ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR AND ALSO FACTORING
IN PRECIPITATION LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFTS, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
COULD RESULT. IN ADDITION, PW VALUES ABOUT 2 INCHES WILL PROMOTE
TORRENTIAL RAIN WITHIN CONVECTIVE CORES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS BUT THEN SLOWS AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE WE
KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE WITH DRYING OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
AREA. ANOTHER WARM TO EVEN HOT DAY ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT RIPPLES
OF ENERGY ALONG IT REMAIN TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TRUE COOLING
AFFECTS FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE RELEGATED WELL TO OUR
NORTH, THE VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS
MAY REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE. A WEAK FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS
TO MOVE THROUGH LATER SATURDAY, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE LIFT MAY
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE OFFSHORE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY DURING
TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THAT
TIME. IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS SHOULD ADD TO THE STRETCH OF 90+
DEGREE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KGED AND KESN LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST NEAR 15
KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOCATIONS 16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN
FOG/STRATUS/ HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA. CHANCE OF
A SHOWER OR TSTM VCNTY KPHL/KMIV TOWARD 10Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SOME FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN MOSTLY VFR. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE. SOME
CEILING AND ESPECIALLY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
A TIME AS A RESULT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS,
THEN DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-
NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE.
WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FRIDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
NEAR 5 KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44009 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS LESS 15KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE
THIS AFTN AND SLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE THOUGH THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, HOWEVER GUSTS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THE SEAS WILL RESPOND FOR A TIME, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD BE BELOW 5
FEET. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A SPOTTY MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN COUNTY PORTION OF NEW JERSEY
OTHERWISE A LOW RISK ELSEWHERE.

OF CONCERN IS THE CONTINUED HOT WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL SST`S
PLAYING A ROLE IN SWIMMER BEHAVIOR. EVEN WITH A LOW RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT FORMATION, THEY CAN OCCUR. IT TAKES ONLY ONE
TO BE FATAL. FOR OUR SAFETY, LETS SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF
LIFEGUARDS WHO ARE TRAINED TO WATCH, RESCUE AND OTHERWISE MINIMIZE
OCEAN WATER RELATED HAZARDS IN THE SWIMMING SURF ZONE. THANK YOU.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-
JULY 29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG
95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
CLIMATE...DRAG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291320
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
920 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER IT THEN SLOWS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
TODAY...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON WITH
HIGHEST DEW POINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY. THIS AREA IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
NEWD DEVELOPING INSTABILITY BURST WITH KI BY 00Z OF 34C ALONG MD`S
EASTERN SHORE.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

KPHL...AM 80 PCT CONFIDENT OF 94. MAX SHOULD BE WITHIN THE RANGE
OF 93-95F. LESS CONFIDENT OF DEW POINT IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME
WHEN MAX HI SHOULD OCCUR.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR
CRITERIA OF 100...BUT SINCE FCST NEAR 100 THURSDAY AND WARM NIGHTS
THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT (LOWS OF 76-77)...WE ISSUED A TWO
DAY WARNING.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEA BREEZESDEVELOPING
ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ
OVERNIGHT WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT
DEVELOP. CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT AND OCCURRENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE
AND THIS MAY NEED MODIFICATION IN LATER FORECASTS, POSSIBLY
WESTWARD INTO E PA.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION
FORMING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THURSDAY THAT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS TROUGH IN PLACE,
WE ARE MAINLY ON THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF IT THEREFORE A RATHER WARM
TO HOT AIR MASS WILL BE IN PLACE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BRING THE GREATEST CHC FOR CONVECTION, THEN WE AWAIT FOR
THE NEXT POTENTIALLY STRONGER FRONT TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY. WE
USED A MODEL BLEND THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH A
WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND THEREAFTER.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE, WE START TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO
THE CWA WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. THE AIR MASS AT 850 MB IS FORECAST TO BE
SIMILAR TO WEDNESDAY THEREFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER THE FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF
CONVECTION ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY.
IF THIS IS DELAYED LATE ENOUGH WITH MORE SUNSHINE, THEN HEAT
INDICES WILL BE A BIT HIGHER. THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCOMING UPPER-
LEVEL TROUGH WILL OFFER SOME HEIGHT FALLS, HOWEVER A RATHER TOASTY
BOUNDARY LAYER LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS TO START THURSDAY WITH MAYBE A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, WE THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THIS PUTS HEAT INDICES VERY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS OF MOST CONCERN FOR THE
URBAN CENTERS WHERE HEAT REMAINS TRAPPED DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
AS A RESULT, FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO
PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON AND THE IMMEDIATE NEARBY LOCATIONS WE
OPTED TO CARRY AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

REGARDING CONVECTION, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE
DAY HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE HOT AND HUMID
AIR MASS TO PROMOTE STORM INITIATION TO OUR WEST. IT IS NOT QUITE
CLEAR IF WE CAN GET SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING AS THE
MOISTURE POOLS, OTHERWISE WE FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE GREATEST SHEAR
THOUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHERE A MID LEVEL
SPEED MAX MOVES THROUGH. THE SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE
INDICATE A LINE/BROKEN LINE OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING
FROM THE WEST. IF ENOUGH ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR AND ALSO FACTORING
IN PRECIPITATION LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFTS, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
COULD RESULT. IN ADDITION, PW VALUES ABOUT 2 INCHES WILL PROMOTE
TORRENTIAL RAIN WITHIN CONVECTIVE CORES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO
LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS BUT THEN SLOWS AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE WE
KEPT THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE
FRONT LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE WITH DRYING OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
AREA. ANOTHER WARM TO EVEN HOT DAY ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE DEW
POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A
STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT RIPPLES
OF ENERGY ALONG IT REMAIN TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TRUE COOLING
AFFECTS FROM THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE RELEGATED WELL TO OUR
NORTH, THE VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS
MAY REMAIN ON THE LOWER SIDE. A WEAK FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS
TO MOVE THROUGH LATER SATURDAY, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE LIFT MAY
REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE OFFSHORE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY DURING
TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THAT
TIME. IT APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS SHOULD ADD TO THE STRETCH OF 90+
DEGREE DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...VFR WITH SCT CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KGED AND KESN LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST NEAR 15
KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEA BREEZES DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOCATIONS 16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN
FOG/STRATUS/ HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA. CHANCE OF
A SHOWER OR TSTM VCNTY KPHL/KMIV TOWARD 10Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SOME FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN MOSTLY VFR. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE. SOME
CEILING AND ESPECIALLY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR
A TIME AS A RESULT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS,
THEN DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-
NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE.
WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FRIDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY
NEAR 5 KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44009 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS LESS 15KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE
THIS AFTN AND SLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE THOUGH THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, HOWEVER GUSTS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THE SEAS WILL RESPOND FOR A TIME, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD BE BELOW 5
FEET. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A SPOTTY MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN COUNTY PORTION OF NEW JERSEY
OTHERWISE A LOW RISK ELSEWHERE.

OF CONCERN IS THE CONTINUED HOT WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL SST`S
PLAYING A ROLE IN SWIMMER BEHAVIOR. EVEN WITH A LOW RISK OF
DANGEROUS RIP CURRENT FORMATION, THEY CAN OCCUR. IT TAKES ONLY ONE
TO BE FATAL. FOR OUR SAFETY, LETS SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF
LIFEGUARDS WHO ARE TRAINED TO WATCH, RESCUE AND OTHERWISE MINIMIZE
OCEAN WATER RELATED HAZARDS IN THE SWIMMING SURF ZONE. THANK YOU.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-
JULY 29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG
95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR PAZ070-071-
     102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR NJZ015-
     017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG
CLIMATE...DRAG



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291019
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER IT THEN SLOWS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY HAS TEMPORARILY WASHED OUT AS LESS DEFINED AND
NORTHWARD TO NEAR I-78 EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IN THE
COUNTRYSIDE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 8 AM.

TODAY...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON WITH
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY. THIS AREA IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
NEWD DEVELOPING INSTABILITY BURST WITH KI BY 00Z OF 34C ALONG MD`S
EASTERN SHORE.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

KPHL...AM 80 PCT CONFIDENT OF 94. MAX SHOULD BE WITHIN THE RANGE
OF 93-95F. LESS CONFIDENT OF DEWPOINT IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME
WHEN MAX HI SHOULD OCCUR.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR CRITERIA
OF 100...BUT SINCE FCST NEAR 100 THURSDAY AND WARM NIGHTS THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT (LOWS OF 76-77)...WE ISSUED A TWO DAY
WARNING.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ OVERNIGHT
WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT AND OCCURRENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE AND THIS
MAY NEED MODIFICATION IN LATER FORECASTS, POSSIBLY WESTWARD INTO E
PA.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION
FORMING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THURSDAY THAT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS TROUGH IN PLACE, WE ARE MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF IT THEREFORE A RATHER WARM TO HOT AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THURSDAY LOOKS TO BRING THE
GREATEST CHC FOR CONVECTION, THEN WE AWAIT FOR THE NEXT POTENTIALLY
STRONGER FRONT TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE, WE START TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
CWA WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS AT 850 MB IS FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY THEREFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. IF THIS IS
DELAYED LATE ENOUGH WITH MORE SUNSHINE, THEN HEAT INDICES WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER. THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCOMING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
OFFER SOME HEIGHT FALLS, HOWEVER A RATHER TOASTY BOUNDARY LAYER
LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS TO START THURSDAY WITH MAYBE A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, WE THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THIS PUTS HEAT INDICES VERY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS OF MOST CONCERN FOR THE
URBAN CENTERS WHERE HEAT REMAINS TRAPPED DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
AS A RESULT, FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO
PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON AND THE IMMEDIATE NEARBY LOCATIONS WE
OPTED TO CARRY AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

REGARDING CONVECTION, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE
DAY HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE HOT AND HUMID
AIRMASS TO PROMOTE STORM INITIATION TO OUR WEST. IT IS NOT QUITE
CLEAR IF WE CAN GET SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING AS THE
MOISTURE POOLS, OTHERWISE WE FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE GREATEST SHEAR
THOUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHERE A MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX MOVES THROUGH. THE SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
LINE/BROKEN LINE OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
IF ENOUGH ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR AND ALSO FACTORING IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFTS, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS COULD RESULT. IN
ADDITION, PW VALUES ABOUT 2 INCHES WILL PROMOTE TORRENTIAL RAIN
WITHIN CONVECTIVE CORES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS BUT THEN SLOWS AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE WE KEPT
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE WITH DRYING OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
AREA. ANOTHER WARM TO EVEN HOT DAY ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT RIPPLES OF ENERGY
ALONG IT REMAIN TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TRUE COOLING AFFECTS FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE RELEGATED WELL TO OUR NORTH, THE VERY WARM TO
HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS MAY REMAIN ON THE LOWER
SIDE. A WEAK FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
SATURDAY, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE LIFT MAY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE OFFSHORE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY DURING TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THAT TIME. IT
APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS SHOULD ADD TO THE STRETCH OF 90+ DEGREE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...PATCHY COUNTRYSIDE FOG DISSIPATES BY 12Z. OTRW VFR WITH
SCT CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE VCNTY
KGED AND KESN LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST NEAR 15 KT THIS AFTN
EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEABREEZES DEVELOPING COASTAL LOCATIONS
16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS/
HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA. CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
TSTM VCNTY KPHL/KMIV TOWARD 10Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SOME FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN MOSTLY VFR. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE. SOME
CEILING AND ESPECIALLY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR A
TIME AS A RESULT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS, THEN
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FRIDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR 5
KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44009 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS LESS 15KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE
THIS AFTN AND SLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE THOUGH THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, HOWEVER GUSTS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THE SEAS WILL RESPOND FOR A TIME, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD BE BELOW 5
FEET. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A SPOTTY MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN COUNTY PORTION OF NEW JERSEY OTHERWISE
A LOW RISK ELSEWHERE.

OF CONCERN IS THE CONTINUED HOT WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL SST`S PLAYING
A ROLE IN SWIMMER BEHAVIOR. EVEN WITH A LOW RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENT FORMATION, THEY CAN OCCUR. IT TAKES ONLY ONE TO BE FATAL.
FOR OUR SAFETY, LETS SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS WHO ARE
TRAINED TO WATCH, RESCUE AND OTHERWISE MINIMIZE OCEAN WATER
RELATED HAZARDS IN THE SWIMMING SURF ZONE.  THANK YOU.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-JULY
29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR NJZ015-017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 619
SHORT TERM...DRAG 619
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 619
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 619
RIP CURRENTS... 619
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 291019
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER IT THEN SLOWS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY HAS TEMPORARILY WASHED OUT AS LESS DEFINED AND
NORTHWARD TO NEAR I-78 EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IN THE
COUNTRYSIDE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 8 AM.

TODAY...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON WITH
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY. THIS AREA IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
NEWD DEVELOPING INSTABILITY BURST WITH KI BY 00Z OF 34C ALONG MD`S
EASTERN SHORE.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

KPHL...AM 80 PCT CONFIDENT OF 94. MAX SHOULD BE WITHIN THE RANGE
OF 93-95F. LESS CONFIDENT OF DEWPOINT IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME
WHEN MAX HI SHOULD OCCUR.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR CRITERIA
OF 100...BUT SINCE FCST NEAR 100 THURSDAY AND WARM NIGHTS THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT (LOWS OF 76-77)...WE ISSUED A TWO DAY
WARNING.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ OVERNIGHT
WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT AND OCCURRENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE AND THIS
MAY NEED MODIFICATION IN LATER FORECASTS, POSSIBLY WESTWARD INTO E
PA.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION
FORMING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THURSDAY THAT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS TROUGH IN PLACE, WE ARE MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF IT THEREFORE A RATHER WARM TO HOT AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THURSDAY LOOKS TO BRING THE
GREATEST CHC FOR CONVECTION, THEN WE AWAIT FOR THE NEXT POTENTIALLY
STRONGER FRONT TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE, WE START TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
CWA WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS AT 850 MB IS FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY THEREFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. IF THIS IS
DELAYED LATE ENOUGH WITH MORE SUNSHINE, THEN HEAT INDICES WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER. THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCOMING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
OFFER SOME HEIGHT FALLS, HOWEVER A RATHER TOASTY BOUNDARY LAYER
LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS TO START THURSDAY WITH MAYBE A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, WE THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THIS PUTS HEAT INDICES VERY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS OF MOST CONCERN FOR THE
URBAN CENTERS WHERE HEAT REMAINS TRAPPED DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
AS A RESULT, FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO
PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON AND THE IMMEDIATE NEARBY LOCATIONS WE
OPTED TO CARRY AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

REGARDING CONVECTION, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE
DAY HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE HOT AND HUMID
AIRMASS TO PROMOTE STORM INITIATION TO OUR WEST. IT IS NOT QUITE
CLEAR IF WE CAN GET SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING AS THE
MOISTURE POOLS, OTHERWISE WE FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE GREATEST SHEAR
THOUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHERE A MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX MOVES THROUGH. THE SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
LINE/BROKEN LINE OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
IF ENOUGH ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR AND ALSO FACTORING IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFTS, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS COULD RESULT. IN
ADDITION, PW VALUES ABOUT 2 INCHES WILL PROMOTE TORRENTIAL RAIN
WITHIN CONVECTIVE CORES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS BUT THEN SLOWS AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE WE KEPT
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE WITH DRYING OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
AREA. ANOTHER WARM TO EVEN HOT DAY ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT RIPPLES OF ENERGY
ALONG IT REMAIN TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TRUE COOLING AFFECTS FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE RELEGATED WELL TO OUR NORTH, THE VERY WARM TO
HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS MAY REMAIN ON THE LOWER
SIDE. A WEAK FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
SATURDAY, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE LIFT MAY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE OFFSHORE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY DURING TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THAT TIME. IT
APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS SHOULD ADD TO THE STRETCH OF 90+ DEGREE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...PATCHY COUNTRYSIDE FOG DISSIPATES BY 12Z. OTRW VFR WITH
SCT CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE VCNTY
KGED AND KESN LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST NEAR 15 KT THIS AFTN
EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEABREEZES DEVELOPING COASTAL LOCATIONS
16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS/
HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA. CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
TSTM VCNTY KPHL/KMIV TOWARD 10Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SOME FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN MOSTLY VFR. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE. SOME
CEILING AND ESPECIALLY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR A
TIME AS A RESULT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS, THEN
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FRIDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR 5
KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44009 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS LESS 15KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE
THIS AFTN AND SLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE THOUGH THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, HOWEVER GUSTS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THE SEAS WILL RESPOND FOR A TIME, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD BE BELOW 5
FEET. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A SPOTTY MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN COUNTY PORTION OF NEW JERSEY OTHERWISE
A LOW RISK ELSEWHERE.

OF CONCERN IS THE CONTINUED HOT WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL SST`S PLAYING
A ROLE IN SWIMMER BEHAVIOR. EVEN WITH A LOW RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENT FORMATION, THEY CAN OCCUR. IT TAKES ONLY ONE TO BE FATAL.
FOR OUR SAFETY, LETS SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS WHO ARE
TRAINED TO WATCH, RESCUE AND OTHERWISE MINIMIZE OCEAN WATER
RELATED HAZARDS IN THE SWIMMING SURF ZONE.  THANK YOU.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-JULY
29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR NJZ015-017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 619
SHORT TERM...DRAG 619
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 619
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 619
RIP CURRENTS... 619
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291019
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER IT THEN SLOWS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY HAS TEMPORARILY WASHED OUT AS LESS DEFINED AND
NORTHWARD TO NEAR I-78 EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IN THE
COUNTRYSIDE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 8 AM.

TODAY...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON WITH
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY. THIS AREA IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
NEWD DEVELOPING INSTABILITY BURST WITH KI BY 00Z OF 34C ALONG MD`S
EASTERN SHORE.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

KPHL...AM 80 PCT CONFIDENT OF 94. MAX SHOULD BE WITHIN THE RANGE
OF 93-95F. LESS CONFIDENT OF DEWPOINT IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME
WHEN MAX HI SHOULD OCCUR.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR CRITERIA
OF 100...BUT SINCE FCST NEAR 100 THURSDAY AND WARM NIGHTS THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT (LOWS OF 76-77)...WE ISSUED A TWO DAY
WARNING.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ OVERNIGHT
WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT AND OCCURRENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE AND THIS
MAY NEED MODIFICATION IN LATER FORECASTS, POSSIBLY WESTWARD INTO E
PA.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION
FORMING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THURSDAY THAT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS TROUGH IN PLACE, WE ARE MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF IT THEREFORE A RATHER WARM TO HOT AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THURSDAY LOOKS TO BRING THE
GREATEST CHC FOR CONVECTION, THEN WE AWAIT FOR THE NEXT POTENTIALLY
STRONGER FRONT TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE, WE START TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
CWA WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS AT 850 MB IS FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY THEREFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. IF THIS IS
DELAYED LATE ENOUGH WITH MORE SUNSHINE, THEN HEAT INDICES WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER. THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCOMING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
OFFER SOME HEIGHT FALLS, HOWEVER A RATHER TOASTY BOUNDARY LAYER
LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS TO START THURSDAY WITH MAYBE A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, WE THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THIS PUTS HEAT INDICES VERY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS OF MOST CONCERN FOR THE
URBAN CENTERS WHERE HEAT REMAINS TRAPPED DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
AS A RESULT, FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO
PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON AND THE IMMEDIATE NEARBY LOCATIONS WE
OPTED TO CARRY AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

REGARDING CONVECTION, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE
DAY HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE HOT AND HUMID
AIRMASS TO PROMOTE STORM INITIATION TO OUR WEST. IT IS NOT QUITE
CLEAR IF WE CAN GET SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING AS THE
MOISTURE POOLS, OTHERWISE WE FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE GREATEST SHEAR
THOUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHERE A MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX MOVES THROUGH. THE SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
LINE/BROKEN LINE OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
IF ENOUGH ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR AND ALSO FACTORING IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFTS, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS COULD RESULT. IN
ADDITION, PW VALUES ABOUT 2 INCHES WILL PROMOTE TORRENTIAL RAIN
WITHIN CONVECTIVE CORES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS BUT THEN SLOWS AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE WE KEPT
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE WITH DRYING OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
AREA. ANOTHER WARM TO EVEN HOT DAY ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT RIPPLES OF ENERGY
ALONG IT REMAIN TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TRUE COOLING AFFECTS FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE RELEGATED WELL TO OUR NORTH, THE VERY WARM TO
HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS MAY REMAIN ON THE LOWER
SIDE. A WEAK FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
SATURDAY, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE LIFT MAY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE OFFSHORE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY DURING TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THAT TIME. IT
APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS SHOULD ADD TO THE STRETCH OF 90+ DEGREE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...PATCHY COUNTRYSIDE FOG DISSIPATES BY 12Z. OTRW VFR WITH
SCT CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE VCNTY
KGED AND KESN LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST NEAR 15 KT THIS AFTN
EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEABREEZES DEVELOPING COASTAL LOCATIONS
16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS/
HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA. CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
TSTM VCNTY KPHL/KMIV TOWARD 10Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SOME FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN MOSTLY VFR. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE. SOME
CEILING AND ESPECIALLY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR A
TIME AS A RESULT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS, THEN
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FRIDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR 5
KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44009 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS LESS 15KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE
THIS AFTN AND SLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE THOUGH THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, HOWEVER GUSTS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THE SEAS WILL RESPOND FOR A TIME, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD BE BELOW 5
FEET. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A SPOTTY MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN COUNTY PORTION OF NEW JERSEY OTHERWISE
A LOW RISK ELSEWHERE.

OF CONCERN IS THE CONTINUED HOT WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL SST`S PLAYING
A ROLE IN SWIMMER BEHAVIOR. EVEN WITH A LOW RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENT FORMATION, THEY CAN OCCUR. IT TAKES ONLY ONE TO BE FATAL.
FOR OUR SAFETY, LETS SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS WHO ARE
TRAINED TO WATCH, RESCUE AND OTHERWISE MINIMIZE OCEAN WATER
RELATED HAZARDS IN THE SWIMMING SURF ZONE.  THANK YOU.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-JULY
29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR NJZ015-017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 619
SHORT TERM...DRAG 619
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 619
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 619
RIP CURRENTS... 619
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 291019
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
619 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER IT THEN SLOWS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY HAS TEMPORARILY WASHED OUT AS LESS DEFINED AND
NORTHWARD TO NEAR I-78 EARLY THIS MORNING. PATCHY FOG IN THE
COUNTRYSIDE WILL QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 8 AM.

TODAY...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON WITH
HIGHEST DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO THE
SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY. THIS AREA IS THE LEADING EDGE OF A
NEWD DEVELOPING INSTABILITY BURST WITH KI BY 00Z OF 34C ALONG MD`S
EASTERN SHORE.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

KPHL...AM 80 PCT CONFIDENT OF 94. MAX SHOULD BE WITHIN THE RANGE
OF 93-95F. LESS CONFIDENT OF DEWPOINT IN THE 16Z-18Z TIME FRAME
WHEN MAX HI SHOULD OCCUR.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR CRITERIA
OF 100...BUT SINCE FCST NEAR 100 THURSDAY AND WARM NIGHTS THIS
MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT (LOWS OF 76-77)...WE ISSUED A TWO DAY
WARNING.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ OVERNIGHT
WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT DEVELOP.
CONFIDENCE ON PLACEMENT AND OCCURRENCE IS BELOW AVERAGE AND THIS
MAY NEED MODIFICATION IN LATER FORECASTS, POSSIBLY WESTWARD INTO E
PA.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

OVERALL CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION
FORMING OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THURSDAY THAT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS TROUGH IN PLACE, WE ARE MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF IT THEREFORE A RATHER WARM TO HOT AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THURSDAY LOOKS TO BRING THE
GREATEST CHC FOR CONVECTION, THEN WE AWAIT FOR THE NEXT POTENTIALLY
STRONGER FRONT TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE, WE START TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
CWA WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS AT 850 MB IS FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY THEREFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. IF THIS IS
DELAYED LATE ENOUGH WITH MORE SUNSHINE, THEN HEAT INDICES WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER. THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCOMING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
OFFER SOME HEIGHT FALLS, HOWEVER A RATHER TOASTY BOUNDARY LAYER
LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS TO START THURSDAY WITH MAYBE A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, WE THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THIS PUTS HEAT INDICES VERY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS OF MOST CONCERN FOR THE
URBAN CENTERS WHERE HEAT REMAINS TRAPPED DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
AS A RESULT, FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO
PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON AND THE IMMEDIATE NEARBY LOCATIONS WE
OPTED TO CARRY AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

REGARDING CONVECTION, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE
DAY HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE HOT AND HUMID
AIRMASS TO PROMOTE STORM INITIATION TO OUR WEST. IT IS NOT QUITE
CLEAR IF WE CAN GET SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING AS THE
MOISTURE POOLS, OTHERWISE WE FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE GREATEST SHEAR
THOUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHERE A MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX MOVES THROUGH. THE SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
LINE/BROKEN LINE OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
IF ENOUGH ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR AND ALSO FACTORING IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFTS, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS COULD RESULT. IN
ADDITION, PW VALUES ABOUT 2 INCHES WILL PROMOTE TORRENTIAL RAIN
WITHIN CONVECTIVE CORES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS BUT THEN SLOWS AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE WE KEPT
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE WITH DRYING OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
AREA. ANOTHER WARM TO EVEN HOT DAY ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT RIPPLES OF ENERGY
ALONG IT REMAIN TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TRUE COOLING AFFECTS FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE RELEGATED WELL TO OUR NORTH, THE VERY WARM TO
HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS MAY REMAIN ON THE LOWER
SIDE. A WEAK FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
SATURDAY, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE LIFT MAY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE OFFSHORE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY DURING TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THAT TIME. IT
APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS SHOULD ADD TO THE STRETCH OF 90+ DEGREE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...PATCHY COUNTRYSIDE FOG DISSIPATES BY 12Z. OTRW VFR WITH
SCT CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS POSSIBLE VCNTY
KGED AND KESN LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST NEAR 15 KT THIS AFTN
EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEABREEZES DEVELOPING COASTAL LOCATIONS
16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS/
HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA. CHANCE OF A SHOWER OR
TSTM VCNTY KPHL/KMIV TOWARD 10Z.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SOME FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN MOSTLY VFR. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE. SOME
CEILING AND ESPECIALLY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR A
TIME AS A RESULT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS, THEN
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FRIDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR 5
KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44009 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA HAS RETURNED TO SERVICE.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. SEAS GENERALLY AOB 3 FT THROUGH
TONIGHT. SW WIND GUSTS LESS 15KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE
THIS AFTN AND SLY TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK... THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE THOUGH THURSDAY AHEAD
OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, HOWEVER GUSTS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS.
THE SEAS WILL RESPOND FOR A TIME, HOWEVER THEY SHOULD BE BELOW 5
FEET. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS
POSSIBLE. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A SPOTTY MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS
RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE OCEAN COUNTY PORTION OF NEW JERSEY OTHERWISE
A LOW RISK ELSEWHERE.

OF CONCERN IS THE CONTINUED HOT WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL SST`S PLAYING
A ROLE IN SWIMMER BEHAVIOR. EVEN WITH A LOW RISK OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENT FORMATION, THEY CAN OCCUR. IT TAKES ONLY ONE TO BE FATAL.
FOR OUR SAFETY, LETS SWIM IN THE PRESENCE OF LIFEGUARDS WHO ARE
TRAINED TO WATCH, RESCUE AND OTHERWISE MINIMIZE OCEAN WATER
RELATED HAZARDS IN THE SWIMMING SURF ZONE.  THANK YOU.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-JULY
29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR NJZ015-017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG 619
SHORT TERM...DRAG 619
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE 619
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE 619
RIP CURRENTS... 619
CLIMATE...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 290752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER IT THEN SLOWS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY HAS TEMPORARILY WASHED OUT AS LESS DEFINED AND
NORTHWARD TO NEAR I-78 EARLY THIS MORNING. A LITTLE FOG WILL FORM
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BUT NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS SEEN IN YDYS 9Z-
10Z OBS. THE AREAS WHERE IT RAINED LATE YDY MAY BE MORE PREDISPOSED
TO FOG FORMATION.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON
WITH HIGHEST DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR CRITERIA
OF 100...BUT SINCE DITTO THURSDAY AND WARM NIGHT WE ISSUED A TWO
DAY WARNING.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ
OVERNIGHT WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT
DEVELOP.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION FORMING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THURSDAY THAT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS TROUGH IN PLACE, WE ARE MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF IT THEREFORE A RATHER WARM TO HOT AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THURSDAY LOOKS TO BRING THE
GREATEST CHC FOR CONVECTION, THEN WE AWAIT FOR THE NEXT POTENTIALLY
STRONGER FRONT TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE, WE START TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
CWA WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS AT 850 MB IS FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY THEREFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. IF THIS IS
DELAYED LATE ENOUGH WITH MORE SUNSHINE, THEN HEAT INDICES WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER. THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCOMING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
OFFER SOME HEIGHT FALLS, HOWEVER A RATHER TOASTY BOUNDARY LAYER
LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS TO START THURSDAY WITH MAYBE A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, WE THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THIS PUTS HEAT INDICES VERY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS OF MOST CONCERN FOR THE
URBAN CENTERS WHERE HEAT REMAINS TRAPPED DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
AS A RESULT, FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO
PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON AND THE IMMEDIATE NEARBY LOCATIONS WE
OPTED TO CARRY AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

REGARDING CONVECTION, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE
DAY HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE HOT AND HUMID
AIRMASS TO PROMOTE STORM INITIATION TO OUR WEST. IT IS NOT QUITE
CLEAR IF WE CAN GET SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING AS THE
MOISTURE POOLS, OTHERWISE WE FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE GREATEST SHEAR
THOUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHERE A MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX MOVES THROUGH. THE SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
LINE/BROKEN LINE OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
IF ENOUGH ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR AND ALSO FACTORING IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFTS, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS COULD RESULT. IN
ADDITION, PW VALUES ABOUT 2 INCHES WILL PROMOTE TORRENTIAL RAIN
WITHIN CONVECTIVE CORES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS BUT THEN SLOWS AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE WE KEPT
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE WITH DRYING OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
AREA. ANOTHER WARM TO EVEN HOT DAY ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT RIPPLES OF ENERGY
ALONG IT REMAIN TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TRUE COOLING AFFECTS FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE RELEGATED WELL TO OUR NORTH, THE VERY WARM TO
HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS MAY REMAIN ON THE LOWER
SIDE. A WEAK FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
SATURDAY, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE LIFT MAY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE OFFSHORE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY DURING TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THAT TIME. IT
APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS SHOULD ADD TO THE STRETCH OF 90+ DEGREE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOG IN THE 6Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
LIGHT MOSTLY SW WIND.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KGED AND KESN MID OR LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST
NEAR 15 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEABREEZES DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOCATIONS 16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS/
HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SOME FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN MOSTLY VFR. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE. SOME
CEILING AND ESPECIALLY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR A
TIME AS A RESULT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS, THEN
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FRIDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR 5
KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44009 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA HAS RETURNED.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. A DISTANT OCEAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS PRODUCING A LITTLE MORE SWELL THAN
ANTICIPATED. STILL ATLC SEAS AOB 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
LESS 18KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE THIS AFTN AND SLY
TONIGHT... ALL GUST SPEEDS AOB 22 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
THOUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, HOWEVER GUSTS
SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS WILL RESPOND FOR A TIME, HOWEVER
THEY SHOULD BE BELOW 5 FEET. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST TODAY DUE TO A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WAVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-JULY
29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR NJZ015-017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER IT THEN SLOWS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY HAS TEMPORARILY WASHED OUT AS LESS DEFINED AND
NORTHWARD TO NEAR I-78 EARLY THIS MORNING. A LITTLE FOG WILL FORM
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BUT NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS SEEN IN YDYS 9Z-
10Z OBS. THE AREAS WHERE IT RAINED LATE YDY MAY BE MORE PREDISPOSED
TO FOG FORMATION.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON
WITH HIGHEST DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR CRITERIA
OF 100...BUT SINCE DITTO THURSDAY AND WARM NIGHT WE ISSUED A TWO
DAY WARNING.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ
OVERNIGHT WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT
DEVELOP.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION FORMING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THURSDAY THAT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS TROUGH IN PLACE, WE ARE MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF IT THEREFORE A RATHER WARM TO HOT AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THURSDAY LOOKS TO BRING THE
GREATEST CHC FOR CONVECTION, THEN WE AWAIT FOR THE NEXT POTENTIALLY
STRONGER FRONT TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE, WE START TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
CWA WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS AT 850 MB IS FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY THEREFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. IF THIS IS
DELAYED LATE ENOUGH WITH MORE SUNSHINE, THEN HEAT INDICES WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER. THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCOMING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
OFFER SOME HEIGHT FALLS, HOWEVER A RATHER TOASTY BOUNDARY LAYER
LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS TO START THURSDAY WITH MAYBE A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, WE THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THIS PUTS HEAT INDICES VERY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS OF MOST CONCERN FOR THE
URBAN CENTERS WHERE HEAT REMAINS TRAPPED DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
AS A RESULT, FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO
PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON AND THE IMMEDIATE NEARBY LOCATIONS WE
OPTED TO CARRY AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

REGARDING CONVECTION, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE
DAY HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE HOT AND HUMID
AIRMASS TO PROMOTE STORM INITIATION TO OUR WEST. IT IS NOT QUITE
CLEAR IF WE CAN GET SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING AS THE
MOISTURE POOLS, OTHERWISE WE FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE GREATEST SHEAR
THOUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHERE A MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX MOVES THROUGH. THE SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
LINE/BROKEN LINE OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
IF ENOUGH ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR AND ALSO FACTORING IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFTS, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS COULD RESULT. IN
ADDITION, PW VALUES ABOUT 2 INCHES WILL PROMOTE TORRENTIAL RAIN
WITHIN CONVECTIVE CORES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS BUT THEN SLOWS AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE WE KEPT
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE WITH DRYING OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
AREA. ANOTHER WARM TO EVEN HOT DAY ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT RIPPLES OF ENERGY
ALONG IT REMAIN TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TRUE COOLING AFFECTS FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE RELEGATED WELL TO OUR NORTH, THE VERY WARM TO
HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS MAY REMAIN ON THE LOWER
SIDE. A WEAK FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
SATURDAY, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE LIFT MAY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE OFFSHORE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY DURING TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THAT TIME. IT
APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS SHOULD ADD TO THE STRETCH OF 90+ DEGREE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOG IN THE 6Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
LIGHT MOSTLY SW WIND.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KGED AND KESN MID OR LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST
NEAR 15 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEABREEZES DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOCATIONS 16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS/
HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SOME FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN MOSTLY VFR. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE. SOME
CEILING AND ESPECIALLY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR A
TIME AS A RESULT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS, THEN
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FRIDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR 5
KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44009 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA HAS RETURNED.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. A DISTANT OCEAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS PRODUCING A LITTLE MORE SWELL THAN
ANTICIPATED. STILL ATLC SEAS AOB 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
LESS 18KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE THIS AFTN AND SLY
TONIGHT... ALL GUST SPEEDS AOB 22 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
THOUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, HOWEVER GUSTS
SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS WILL RESPOND FOR A TIME, HOWEVER
THEY SHOULD BE BELOW 5 FEET. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST TODAY DUE TO A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WAVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-JULY
29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR NJZ015-017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER IT THEN SLOWS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY HAS TEMPORARILY WASHED OUT AS LESS DEFINED AND
NORTHWARD TO NEAR I-78 EARLY THIS MORNING. A LITTLE FOG WILL FORM
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BUT NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS SEEN IN YDYS 9Z-
10Z OBS. THE AREAS WHERE IT RAINED LATE YDY MAY BE MORE PREDISPOSED
TO FOG FORMATION.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON
WITH HIGHEST DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR CRITERIA
OF 100...BUT SINCE DITTO THURSDAY AND WARM NIGHT WE ISSUED A TWO
DAY WARNING.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ
OVERNIGHT WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT
DEVELOP.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION FORMING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THURSDAY THAT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS TROUGH IN PLACE, WE ARE MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF IT THEREFORE A RATHER WARM TO HOT AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THURSDAY LOOKS TO BRING THE
GREATEST CHC FOR CONVECTION, THEN WE AWAIT FOR THE NEXT POTENTIALLY
STRONGER FRONT TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE, WE START TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
CWA WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS AT 850 MB IS FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY THEREFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. IF THIS IS
DELAYED LATE ENOUGH WITH MORE SUNSHINE, THEN HEAT INDICES WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER. THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCOMING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
OFFER SOME HEIGHT FALLS, HOWEVER A RATHER TOASTY BOUNDARY LAYER
LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS TO START THURSDAY WITH MAYBE A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, WE THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THIS PUTS HEAT INDICES VERY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS OF MOST CONCERN FOR THE
URBAN CENTERS WHERE HEAT REMAINS TRAPPED DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
AS A RESULT, FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO
PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON AND THE IMMEDIATE NEARBY LOCATIONS WE
OPTED TO CARRY AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

REGARDING CONVECTION, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE
DAY HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE HOT AND HUMID
AIRMASS TO PROMOTE STORM INITIATION TO OUR WEST. IT IS NOT QUITE
CLEAR IF WE CAN GET SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING AS THE
MOISTURE POOLS, OTHERWISE WE FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE GREATEST SHEAR
THOUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHERE A MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX MOVES THROUGH. THE SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
LINE/BROKEN LINE OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
IF ENOUGH ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR AND ALSO FACTORING IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFTS, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS COULD RESULT. IN
ADDITION, PW VALUES ABOUT 2 INCHES WILL PROMOTE TORRENTIAL RAIN
WITHIN CONVECTIVE CORES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS BUT THEN SLOWS AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE WE KEPT
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE WITH DRYING OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
AREA. ANOTHER WARM TO EVEN HOT DAY ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT RIPPLES OF ENERGY
ALONG IT REMAIN TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TRUE COOLING AFFECTS FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE RELEGATED WELL TO OUR NORTH, THE VERY WARM TO
HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS MAY REMAIN ON THE LOWER
SIDE. A WEAK FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
SATURDAY, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE LIFT MAY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE OFFSHORE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY DURING TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THAT TIME. IT
APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS SHOULD ADD TO THE STRETCH OF 90+ DEGREE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOG IN THE 6Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
LIGHT MOSTLY SW WIND.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KGED AND KESN MID OR LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST
NEAR 15 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEABREEZES DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOCATIONS 16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS/
HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SOME FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN MOSTLY VFR. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE. SOME
CEILING AND ESPECIALLY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR A
TIME AS A RESULT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS, THEN
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FRIDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR 5
KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44009 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA HAS RETURNED.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. A DISTANT OCEAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS PRODUCING A LITTLE MORE SWELL THAN
ANTICIPATED. STILL ATLC SEAS AOB 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
LESS 18KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE THIS AFTN AND SLY
TONIGHT... ALL GUST SPEEDS AOB 22 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
THOUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, HOWEVER GUSTS
SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS WILL RESPOND FOR A TIME, HOWEVER
THEY SHOULD BE BELOW 5 FEET. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST TODAY DUE TO A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WAVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-JULY
29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR NJZ015-017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 290752
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
352 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT TO OUR EAST TODAY. A
WEAKENING COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH OUR REGION THURSDAY NIGHT,
HOWEVER IT THEN SLOWS OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. THE NEXT WEAK COLD FRONT
SHOULD CROSS OUR AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY HIGH
PRESSURE. A POTENTIALLY STRONGER COLD FRONT IS THEN SCHEDULED TO
ARRIVE FROM THE NORTHWEST DURING TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE WEAK BOUNDARY HAS TEMPORARILY WASHED OUT AS LESS DEFINED AND
NORTHWARD TO NEAR I-78 EARLY THIS MORNING. A LITTLE FOG WILL FORM
DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS BUT NOT AS EXTENSIVE AS SEEN IN YDYS 9Z-
10Z OBS. THE AREAS WHERE IT RAINED LATE YDY MAY BE MORE PREDISPOSED
TO FOG FORMATION.

AFTER SUNRISE...THE BOUNDARY DRYING BECOMES EVIDENT BY FORENOON
WITH HIGHEST DEWPOINTS AND MLCAPE THIS AFTN (400J) CONFINED TO
THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF OUR DELMARVA FCST AREA WHERE AM CARRYING A
SLIGHT CHC FOR A THUNDERSTORM WITH HEAVY RAIN. PWAT INCREASES TO
1.7 INCHES THERE LATE TODAY.

ELSEWHERE...HOT HOT HOT AND USED THE GFS MAVMOS STRAIGHT UP. SEA
BREEZES WILL EVENTUALLY MITIGATE SOME OF THE PURE HEAT IN DE AND
NJ BUT THIS WILL BE A TOASTY DAY WITH 18C AT 850 AND NEAR RECORD
IN SOME PLACES. PLS SEE THE CLIMATE SECTION FOR THE VULNERABLE
RECORDS.

MAX HI TODAY 98-99F...BASICALLY JUST BELOW URBAN CORRIDOR CRITERIA
OF 100...BUT SINCE DITTO THURSDAY AND WARM NIGHT WE ISSUED A TWO
DAY WARNING.

SW WINDS THIS AFTN MAY GUST 15 MPH IN A FEW SPOTS WITH SEABREEZES
DEVELOPING ALONG THE COASTS BETWEEN NOON AND 2 PM.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM THURSDAY/...
ANY SHOWERS ON THE DELMARVA SHOULD DISSIPATE BY 00Z.

THEREAFTER...SLY FLOW AND MORE HUMID WITH PATCHY FOG AND STRATUS
FORMING. PWAT INCREASES TO 1.9 INCHES BY MORNING ALONG THE I-95
CORRIDOR. MODELS HAVE A WEAK IB THRUST ACROSS DE AND S NJ
OVERNIGHT WHERE SCT OR ISOLATED HEAVY SHOWERS AND TSTMS MIGHT
DEVELOP.

TEMPS WELL ABOVE NORMAL AND USED A BLEND OF 00Z/29 NAM/GFS MOS
WITH A FAVORING OF THE WARMER AVBL GUIDANCE.

CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE EXCEPT BELOW AVG ON CONVECTION FORMING
OVERNIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS COMPRISED OF A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE
THURSDAY THAT SHIFTS TO OUR EAST AS AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES
ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES REGIONS. THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST
TO OVERSPREAD THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE MID ATLANTIC THURSDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DESPITE THIS TROUGH IN PLACE, WE ARE MAINLY ON
THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF IT THEREFORE A RATHER WARM TO HOT AIRMASS
WILL BE IN PLACE. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT THURSDAY LOOKS TO BRING THE
GREATEST CHC FOR CONVECTION, THEN WE AWAIT FOR THE NEXT POTENTIALLY
STRONGER FRONT TO ARRIVE DURING TUESDAY. WE USED A MODEL BLEND
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY, THEN WENT WITH A WPC/CONTINUITY BLEND
THEREAFTER.

FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A NARROWING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTS
OFFSHORE, WE START TO BECOME INFLUENCED BY AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH
TRAVERSING THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND SOUTHERN CANADA. A
SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL PULL ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INTO THE
CWA WHICH WILL BE REFLECTED IN HIGHER SURFACE DEW POINTS COMPARED TO
WEDNESDAY. THE AIRMASS AT 850 MB IS FORECAST TO BE SIMILAR TO
WEDNESDAY THEREFORE ANOTHER HOT DAY IS EXPECTED. HOWEVER THE
FORECAST CHALLENGE IS CLOUD COVER AND THE TIMING OF CONVECTION
ESPECIALLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING THURSDAY. IF THIS IS
DELAYED LATE ENOUGH WITH MORE SUNSHINE, THEN HEAT INDICES WILL BE A
BIT HIGHER. THE INFLUENCE OF THE INCOMING UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
OFFER SOME HEIGHT FALLS, HOWEVER A RATHER TOASTY BOUNDARY LAYER
LOOKS TO BE MAINTAINED.

WHILE THERE MAY BE SOME CLOUDS TO START THURSDAY WITH MAYBE A
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM, WE THINK THERE WILL BE ENOUGH SUNSHINE TO
GET TEMPERATURES INTO THE LOWER 90S FOR MANY AREAS ESPECIALLY THE
DELAWARE VALLEY. THIS PUTS HEAT INDICES VERY CLOSE TO 100 DEGREES
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTERNOON. THIS IS OF MOST CONCERN FOR THE
URBAN CENTERS WHERE HEAT REMAINS TRAPPED DURING THE NIGHT AS WELL.
AS A RESULT, FOR THE URBAN CORRIDOR FROM WILMINGTON TO
PHILADELPHIA TO TRENTON AND THE IMMEDIATE NEARBY LOCATIONS WE
OPTED TO CARRY AN EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING THROUGH 6 PM THURSDAY.

REGARDING CONVECTION, A WEAKENING COLD FRONT ARRIVES LATER IN THE
DAY HOWEVER THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH LIFT WITHIN THE HOT AND HUMID
AIRMASS TO PROMOTE STORM INITIATION TO OUR WEST. IT IS NOT QUITE
CLEAR IF WE CAN GET SOME ISOLATED ACTIVITY IN THE MORNING AS THE
MOISTURE POOLS, OTHERWISE WE FOCUS ON THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS AS PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. THE GREATEST SHEAR
THOUGH IS FORECAST TO PASS JUST TO OUR NORTH WHERE A MID LEVEL SPEED
MAX MOVES THROUGH. THE SIGNALS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATE A
LINE/BROKEN LINE OR CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
IF ENOUGH ORGANIZATION CAN OCCUR AND ALSO FACTORING IN PRECIPITATION
LOADING OF THE DOWNDRAFTS, LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS COULD RESULT. IN
ADDITION, PW VALUES ABOUT 2 INCHES WILL PROMOTE TORRENTIAL RAIN
WITHIN CONVECTIVE CORES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

THE CONVECTION SHOULD WANE DURING THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
WEAKENS BUT THEN SLOWS AS IT MOVES OFF THE COAST. THEREFORE WE KEPT
THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE EVENING ACROSS THE EASTERN ZONES. THE FRONT
LOOKS TO STALL OFFSHORE FRIDAY WITH A POSSIBLE WEAK WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE TRACKING ALONG IT. AS OF NOW, IT LOOKS LIKE THE
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE OFFSHORE WITH DRYING OCCURRING ACROSS OUR
AREA. ANOTHER WARM TO EVEN HOT DAY ON FRIDAY, HOWEVER THE DEW POINTS
ARE EXPECTED TO BE NOTICEABLY LOWER FOR MUCH OF THE AREA.

FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST ALTHOUGH IT MAY WEAKEN SOME SUNDAY AS A RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC TRIES TO EXPAND NORTHWESTWARD. THIS KEEPS A STALLED
FRONTAL BOUNDARY OFFSHORE HOWEVER IT APPEARS THAT RIPPLES OF ENERGY
ALONG IT REMAIN TO OUR EAST. SINCE THE TRUE COOLING AFFECTS FROM THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE RELEGATED WELL TO OUR NORTH, THE VERY WARM TO
HOT CONDITIONS PERSIST ALTHOUGH DEW POINTS MAY REMAIN ON THE LOWER
SIDE. A WEAK FRONT OR SURFACE TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH LATER
SATURDAY, HOWEVER MUCH OF THE LIFT MAY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH.

FOR MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THE OFFSHORE FRONT SHOULD DISSIPATE AS THE
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH RELOADS SOME ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS WILL SEND ANOTHER COLD FRONT OUR WAY DURING TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME CONVECTION MAINLY DURING THAT TIME. IT
APPEARS THAT MANY AREAS SHOULD ADD TO THE STRETCH OF 90+ DEGREE
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THROUGH 12Z...VFR WITH POSSIBLE MVFR FOG IN THE 6Z-12Z TIME FRAME.
LIGHT MOSTLY SW WIND.

AFTER 12Z...VFR WITH CLOUDS AOA 6000 FT THIS AFTN. ISOLATED TSTMS
POSSIBLE VCNTY KGED AND KESN MID OR LATE THIS AFTN. SW WIND GUST
NEAR 15 KT THIS AFTN EXCEPT SOUTH SOUTHEAST SEABREEZES DEVELOPING
COASTAL LOCATIONS 16Z-18Z.

TONIGHT....VFR TO START THEN PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN FOG/STRATUS/
HAZE LATE, ESPECIALLY NW NJ AND PTNS E PA.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY...SOME FOG/HAZE POSSIBLE EARLY, THEN MOSTLY VFR. SOME
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST MAINLY IN
THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, POSSIBLY IN THE FORM OF A LINE. SOME
CEILING AND ESPECIALLY VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR A
TIME AS A RESULT. SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KNOTS, THEN
DIMINISHING TO AROUND 5 KNOTS AT NIGHT AND BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST.

FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...MAINLY VFR AS A FRONT LINGERS OFFSHORE. WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS NEAR 10 KNOTS FRIDAY, BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY NEAR 5
KNOTS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.MARINE...
BUOY 44009 SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE DATA HAS RETURNED.

NO HEADLINES THROUGH TONIGHT. A DISTANT OCEAN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SOUTHEAST OF NEW ENGLAND IS PRODUCING A LITTLE MORE SWELL THAN
ANTICIPATED. STILL ATLC SEAS AOB 4 FT THROUGH TONIGHT. SW WINDS
LESS 18KT EARLY THIS MORNING BECOMING SSE THIS AFTN AND SLY
TONIGHT... ALL GUST SPEEDS AOB 22 KT.

OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...THE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD INCREASE
THOUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, HOWEVER GUSTS
SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KNOTS. THE SEAS WILL RESPOND FOR A TIME, HOWEVER
THEY SHOULD BE BELOW 5 FEET. SOME THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE
THURSDAY WITH THE APPROACH OF A WEAKENING COLD FRONT, WITH LOCALLY
GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. THE FRONT THEN LINGERS OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH
SUNDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF DANGEROUS RIP
CURRENTS ALONG THE NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE COAST TODAY DUE TO A
LONG PERIOD SOUTHEASTERLY SWELL. THE WAVE PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO
BE AROUND 10 SECONDS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
KACY RAINFALL 6.58 RANKED 14TH WETTEST NOW WITH THE POR DATING
BACK THROUGH 1874. WETTEST 13.09 IN 1959.

KABE WILL PROBABLY EXPERIENCE NEAR RECORD WARMTH THIS AFTERNOON-JULY
29. THE RECORD THERE IS 96 SET IN 1954. RIGHT NOW WE`RE FCSTG 95.

KRDG AND KMPO MAY BE THE OTHER LOCATIONS WITHIN 2F OF THE RECORD
FOR THIS DATE

KRDG - 97 SET BACK IN 2002.
KMPO - 90 SET BACK IN 1949.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR PAZ070-071-102-104-106.
NJ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR NJZ015-017>019.
DE...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 6 PM EDT THURSDAY
     FOR DEZ001.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GORSE
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...GORSE
AVIATION...DRAG/GORSE
MARINE...DRAG/GORSE
RIP CURRENTS...
CLIMATE...



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