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000
FXUS61 KPHI 230734
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER OUR
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK BEFORE IT WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT
COULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITHOUT MUCH FLOW ALOFT, THEY HAVE
NOT MOVED MUCH. HOWEVER, AS THE WEAK IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SIDE
EASTWARD THOUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THESE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
DRIFTING EASTWARD AND SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING.

HOWEVER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. VERTICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DRY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
IMPULSE APPROACHES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS REALLY NO INSTABILITY EXPECTED TODAY,
SO WE DO NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE AN COUPLE OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.

FOR HIGHS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
THIS EVENING, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. MEANWHILE, PW VALUES WILL BE DROPPING OFF QUITE SHARPLY AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
EVENING, BUT WHATEVER IS OUT THERE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE RAIN FREE.

FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES THROUGH MID WEEK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
STILL EXPECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION, AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST OVER OUR REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE COOLER AIR SETTLING IN ON SUNDAY, SHOULD START WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT HAVE A STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH MID
WEEK, ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY REMAINS THE PERIOD OF MOST INTEREST OVER
THE NEXT WEEK, BUT ALSO WITH THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE
THREE FEATURES THAT WILL BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT
COULD HAVE BIG IMPACTS WITH OUR WEATHER IN THE LATE WEEK PERIODS.
FIRST...THE TOPICAL SYSTEM WHICH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
STAYING WELL OFF SHORE, AND THUS NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING US, IT
COULD HELP TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, RESULTING IN AN INDIRECT IMPACT.
SECOND, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, WHICH LONG RANGE MODELS EITHER
KEEP PUSHING BACK THE ARRIVAL IN OUR REGION, OR KEEP IT NORTH OF
US ALL TOGETHER. AT THIS POINT, IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION, BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY
AS THE THIRD FEATURE, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, SLIDES EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THAT SAID, OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL COME WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE FRONT, HAVE KEPT POPS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAF SITES REMAIN VFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER, WE STILL
EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY FOR
ABE/RDG/TTN, ALTHOUGH THE OTHER SITES MAY DROP INTO THE LOW END OF
MVFR. ONCE THESE LOWER CIGS DEVELOP, WE EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH, SO WE LEFT THEM OUT
OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. IF ANY SHOWERS DO OCCUR, THEY COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN, AND HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COAST. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE EAST
TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
AS WELL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EARLY IN THE DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE MODERATE
RISK MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230734
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER OUR
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK BEFORE IT WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT
COULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITHOUT MUCH FLOW ALOFT, THEY HAVE
NOT MOVED MUCH. HOWEVER, AS THE WEAK IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SIDE
EASTWARD THOUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THESE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
DRIFTING EASTWARD AND SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING.

HOWEVER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. VERTICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DRY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
IMPULSE APPROACHES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS REALLY NO INSTABILITY EXPECTED TODAY,
SO WE DO NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE AN COUPLE OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.

FOR HIGHS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
THIS EVENING, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. MEANWHILE, PW VALUES WILL BE DROPPING OFF QUITE SHARPLY AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
EVENING, BUT WHATEVER IS OUT THERE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE RAIN FREE.

FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES THROUGH MID WEEK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
STILL EXPECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION, AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST OVER OUR REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE COOLER AIR SETTLING IN ON SUNDAY, SHOULD START WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT HAVE A STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH MID
WEEK, ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY REMAINS THE PERIOD OF MOST INTEREST OVER
THE NEXT WEEK, BUT ALSO WITH THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE
THREE FEATURES THAT WILL BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT
COULD HAVE BIG IMPACTS WITH OUR WEATHER IN THE LATE WEEK PERIODS.
FIRST...THE TOPICAL SYSTEM WHICH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
STAYING WELL OFF SHORE, AND THUS NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING US, IT
COULD HELP TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, RESULTING IN AN INDIRECT IMPACT.
SECOND, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, WHICH LONG RANGE MODELS EITHER
KEEP PUSHING BACK THE ARRIVAL IN OUR REGION, OR KEEP IT NORTH OF
US ALL TOGETHER. AT THIS POINT, IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION, BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY
AS THE THIRD FEATURE, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, SLIDES EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THAT SAID, OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL COME WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE FRONT, HAVE KEPT POPS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAF SITES REMAIN VFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER, WE STILL
EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY FOR
ABE/RDG/TTN, ALTHOUGH THE OTHER SITES MAY DROP INTO THE LOW END OF
MVFR. ONCE THESE LOWER CIGS DEVELOP, WE EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH, SO WE LEFT THEM OUT
OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. IF ANY SHOWERS DO OCCUR, THEY COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN, AND HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COAST. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE EAST
TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
AS WELL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EARLY IN THE DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE MODERATE
RISK MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230734
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER OUR
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK BEFORE IT WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT
COULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITHOUT MUCH FLOW ALOFT, THEY HAVE
NOT MOVED MUCH. HOWEVER, AS THE WEAK IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SIDE
EASTWARD THOUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THESE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
DRIFTING EASTWARD AND SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING.

HOWEVER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. VERTICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DRY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
IMPULSE APPROACHES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS REALLY NO INSTABILITY EXPECTED TODAY,
SO WE DO NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE AN COUPLE OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.

FOR HIGHS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
THIS EVENING, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. MEANWHILE, PW VALUES WILL BE DROPPING OFF QUITE SHARPLY AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
EVENING, BUT WHATEVER IS OUT THERE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE RAIN FREE.

FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES THROUGH MID WEEK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
STILL EXPECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION, AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST OVER OUR REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE COOLER AIR SETTLING IN ON SUNDAY, SHOULD START WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT HAVE A STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH MID
WEEK, ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY REMAINS THE PERIOD OF MOST INTEREST OVER
THE NEXT WEEK, BUT ALSO WITH THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE
THREE FEATURES THAT WILL BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT
COULD HAVE BIG IMPACTS WITH OUR WEATHER IN THE LATE WEEK PERIODS.
FIRST...THE TOPICAL SYSTEM WHICH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
STAYING WELL OFF SHORE, AND THUS NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING US, IT
COULD HELP TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, RESULTING IN AN INDIRECT IMPACT.
SECOND, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, WHICH LONG RANGE MODELS EITHER
KEEP PUSHING BACK THE ARRIVAL IN OUR REGION, OR KEEP IT NORTH OF
US ALL TOGETHER. AT THIS POINT, IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION, BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY
AS THE THIRD FEATURE, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, SLIDES EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THAT SAID, OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL COME WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE FRONT, HAVE KEPT POPS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAF SITES REMAIN VFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER, WE STILL
EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY FOR
ABE/RDG/TTN, ALTHOUGH THE OTHER SITES MAY DROP INTO THE LOW END OF
MVFR. ONCE THESE LOWER CIGS DEVELOP, WE EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH, SO WE LEFT THEM OUT
OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. IF ANY SHOWERS DO OCCUR, THEY COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN, AND HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COAST. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE EAST
TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
AS WELL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EARLY IN THE DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE MODERATE
RISK MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230734
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
334 AM EDT SAT AUG 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH OUT OF CANADA TOWARDS OUR
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE HIGH WILL BE ENTRENCHED OVER OUR
REGION THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK BEFORE IT WEAKENS. A COLD FRONT
COULD PUSH THROUGH THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THERE HAS BEEN A PERSISTENT AREA OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
VORTICITY IMPULSE THAT HAVE REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY JUST TO OUR
WEST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITHOUT MUCH FLOW ALOFT, THEY HAVE
NOT MOVED MUCH. HOWEVER, AS THE WEAK IMPULSE CONTINUES TO SIDE
EASTWARD THOUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS, THESE SHOWERS WILL BEGIN
DRIFTING EASTWARD AND SHOULD BEGIN DISSIPATING.

HOWEVER, THERE WILL REMAIN A CHANCE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. VERTICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO DRY LATER IN THE DAY AS THE
IMPULSE APPROACHES AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH
INTO THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO INTERACT WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TO PRODUCE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH PW VALUES NEAR 1.5
INCHES, THERE REMAINS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN WITH ANY
SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS REALLY NO INSTABILITY EXPECTED TODAY,
SO WE DO NOT HAVE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST, ALTHOUGH IT WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISING TO SEE AN COUPLE OF ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES.

FOR HIGHS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND MIXED 925 MB
TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/...
THE SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX WILL BE MOVING THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS
THIS EVENING, WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
NORTH. MEANWHILE, PW VALUES WILL BE DROPPING OFF QUITE SHARPLY AS
DRIER AIR MOVES IN. THERE MAY BE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS EARLY IN THE
EVENING, BUT WHATEVER IS OUT THERE SHOULD DISSIPATE AND/OR MOVE
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE EVENING, AND THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT SHOULD
BE RAIN FREE.

FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MANY CHANGES THROUGH MID WEEK FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
STILL EXPECTING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER AS THE SURFACE
HIGH BUILDS OVER OUR REGION, AND IN THE UPPER LEVELS, A SHORT WAVE
RIDGE PROPAGATES SOUTHEAST OVER OUR REGION MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
WITH THE COOLER AIR SETTLING IN ON SUNDAY, SHOULD START WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BUT HAVE A STEADY WARMING TREND THROUGH MID
WEEK, ESPECIALLY AS LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS
WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY REMAINS THE PERIOD OF MOST INTEREST OVER
THE NEXT WEEK, BUT ALSO WITH THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY. THERE ARE
THREE FEATURES THAT WILL BE WATCHED OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS THAT
COULD HAVE BIG IMPACTS WITH OUR WEATHER IN THE LATE WEEK PERIODS.
FIRST...THE TOPICAL SYSTEM WHICH COULD DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. WHILE NEARLY ALL OF THE LONG RANGE MODELS HAVE THIS SYSTEM
STAYING WELL OFF SHORE, AND THUS NOT DIRECTLY IMPACTING US, IT
COULD HELP TO WEAKEN THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE MID ATLANTIC
EARLIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, RESULTING IN AN INDIRECT IMPACT.
SECOND, THE SURFACE COLD FRONT, WHICH LONG RANGE MODELS EITHER
KEEP PUSHING BACK THE ARRIVAL IN OUR REGION, OR KEEP IT NORTH OF
US ALL TOGETHER. AT THIS POINT, IT STILL SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH OUR REGION, BUT PROBABLY NOT UNTIL FRIDAY
AS THE THIRD FEATURE, A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, SLIDES EAST OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ALL THAT SAID, OUR NEXT GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN WILL COME WHEN THE FRONT ARRIVES, ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES
WELL BELOW NORMAL. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING
AND TRACK OF THE FRONT, HAVE KEPT POPS THROUGH THE LATE WEEK
PERIOD IN THE 20S AND 30S.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TAF SITES REMAIN VFR AT THE START OF THE PERIOD, HOWEVER, WE STILL
EXPECT CIGS TO DROP TO MVFR BY DAYBREAK AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INCREASES. IT IS POSSIBLE FOR IFR CIGS TO DEVELOP, MAINLY FOR
ABE/RDG/TTN, ALTHOUGH THE OTHER SITES MAY DROP INTO THE LOW END OF
MVFR. ONCE THESE LOWER CIGS DEVELOP, WE EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN
THROUGH THE MID-LATE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE AN IMPROVEMENT TO VFR FOR
THE AFTERNOON. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE DAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING IS NOT HIGH, SO WE LEFT THEM OUT
OF THE AFTERNOON FORECAST. IF ANY SHOWERS DO OCCUR, THEY COULD
BRIEFLY REDUCE CIGS/VSBYS.

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS DRIER AIR
FILTERS IN AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.

WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY OUT OF THE EAST TO NORTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS OR LESS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN, AND HAS BEEN
EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE ENTIRE NEW JERSEY ATLANTIC COAST. SEAS ARE
EXPECTED TO BUILD LATER TODAY AND CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT AS THE EAST
TO NORTHEASTERLY FLOW INCREASES. WINDS MAY GUST AROUND 20-25 KNOTS
AS WELL LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY...SEAS AND WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE BELOW SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY EARLY IN THE DAY.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS REMAINS TODAY INTO TONIGHT AS SEAS
ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN THE PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW. THE MODERATE
RISK MAY CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
RIP CURRENTS...ROBERTSON







000
FXUS61 KPHI 230108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
908 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE TREND AND CONSISTENCY WITH THE MESOSCALE MODELS THIS EVENING
HAS BEEN FOR SHOWERS TO REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER
TONIGHT. ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS WERE MADE IT IN THAT DIRECTION.
SHOWERS ARE MAKING IT BACK INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF OUR CWA
AND WITH THE TROF SHARPENING OVERNIGHT, ADDITIONAL ONES SHOULD
FOLLOW. SMOOTHING OF POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY WERE MADE TO
KEEP A SEAMLESS TRANSITION.

TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED CLOSE AND NO BIG CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE WITH THEM OR MOST OF THE OTHER GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

DEEP MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH WEAK VV DUE TO TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING
SWD FROM NYS AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND MAKE IT
A BLEAK SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD START DRYING OUT WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES
TOWARD 6 PM.

ENE WIND MAX GUST AROUND 20 MPH.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ONLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FCST
WILL BE ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY
SOUTH...SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER H5 TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA AND PLENTY OF DRIER AND SUBSIDING AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND IT.
WE WILL JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...AS WAS ALREADY IN THERE. TEMPS SAT NIGHT MID/UPPER 50S
NORTH/WEST AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS SLATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUN AND IT WILL ROTATE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA MON. THIS WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH COOL TEMPS SUN/MON.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE AND THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED/THU.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THU AND
THEN MOVE AWAY FRI. IT WILL PROBABLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WE HAVE JUST PAINTED SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW. A TROPICAL
SYSTEM MAY MOVE UP FROM THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY NORTH NORTHEAST WED-THU.
SINCE IT WILL BE STAYING WELL EAST OF THE AREA...IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ENHANCED
SEAS. WE WILL BE WATCHING ANY DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 00Z TAFS CONTINUED THE IDEA OF CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND IFR
THRESHOLD LATE TONIGHT.

FOR THIS EVENING, EXPECTING A MVFR CIG TO FORM IF NOT ALREADY
PRESENT. MENTION OF SHOWERS LATE AT KRDG. MOST OF THEM HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA. LIGHT EAST WINDS.

OVERNIGHT, GREATER CONFIDENCE OF A LOWER CIG FORMING. NOT AS
CONFIDENT ABOUT LOW MVFR VS IFR. IFR CIGS WERE KEPT AT TERMINALS
NEAR THE DELAWARE BAY AND WITH SOME ELEVATION, UPSLOPE FLOW. ANOTHER
SHOT OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH. HIGHEST CONFID AT
KABE. SOME MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG MAY ALSO OCCUR LATE. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST.

ON SATURDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE MORNING
CONTINUES. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE
AROUND. BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. BEST CHANCE WESTERN
AIRPORTS/TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BACK SLIGHTLY
MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS AND FOR NOW
NONE NNJ WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST HAS TRIMMED SEA STATE BY 1
FOOT ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. IN WHICH CASE MAY
NEED TO EXPAND THE SCA INTO THE NNJ WATERS ON ONE OF OUR NEXT FCST
SHIFTS.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA FLAG CONTINUES SAT NIGHT AND THRU 800 AM SUN FOR
THE SRN NJ AND DEL COASTAL WATERS. NEAR SCA CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. WHILE SOME
OF OUR GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING LOW RISK FOR DELAWARE, ONSHORE WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY THE HIGHEST ALONG OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL COUNTIES
ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PERSIST INTO SUNDAY,
SO MIGHT THE MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...GIGI






000
FXUS61 KPHI 230108
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
908 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE TREND AND CONSISTENCY WITH THE MESOSCALE MODELS THIS EVENING
HAS BEEN FOR SHOWERS TO REMAIN MAINLY WEST OF THE DELAWARE RIVER
TONIGHT. ADJUSTMENTS TO POPS WERE MADE IT IN THAT DIRECTION.
SHOWERS ARE MAKING IT BACK INTO THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF OUR CWA
AND WITH THE TROF SHARPENING OVERNIGHT, ADDITIONAL ONES SHOULD
FOLLOW. SMOOTHING OF POPS INTO EARLY SATURDAY WERE MADE TO
KEEP A SEAMLESS TRANSITION.

TEMPERATURES HAVE REMAINED CLOSE AND NO BIG CHANGES HAVE BEEN
MADE WITH THEM OR MOST OF THE OTHER GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...

DEEP MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH WEAK VV DUE TO TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING
SWD FROM NYS AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND MAKE IT
A BLEAK SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD START DRYING OUT WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES
TOWARD 6 PM.

ENE WIND MAX GUST AROUND 20 MPH.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ONLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FCST
WILL BE ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY
SOUTH...SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER H5 TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA AND PLENTY OF DRIER AND SUBSIDING AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND IT.
WE WILL JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...AS WAS ALREADY IN THERE. TEMPS SAT NIGHT MID/UPPER 50S
NORTH/WEST AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS SLATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUN AND IT WILL ROTATE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA MON. THIS WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH COOL TEMPS SUN/MON.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE AND THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED/THU.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THU AND
THEN MOVE AWAY FRI. IT WILL PROBABLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WE HAVE JUST PAINTED SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW. A TROPICAL
SYSTEM MAY MOVE UP FROM THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY NORTH NORTHEAST WED-THU.
SINCE IT WILL BE STAYING WELL EAST OF THE AREA...IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ENHANCED
SEAS. WE WILL BE WATCHING ANY DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 00Z TAFS CONTINUED THE IDEA OF CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND IFR
THRESHOLD LATE TONIGHT.

FOR THIS EVENING, EXPECTING A MVFR CIG TO FORM IF NOT ALREADY
PRESENT. MENTION OF SHOWERS LATE AT KRDG. MOST OF THEM HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA. LIGHT EAST WINDS.

OVERNIGHT, GREATER CONFIDENCE OF A LOWER CIG FORMING. NOT AS
CONFIDENT ABOUT LOW MVFR VS IFR. IFR CIGS WERE KEPT AT TERMINALS
NEAR THE DELAWARE BAY AND WITH SOME ELEVATION, UPSLOPE FLOW. ANOTHER
SHOT OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH. HIGHEST CONFID AT
KABE. SOME MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG MAY ALSO OCCUR LATE. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST.

ON SATURDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE MORNING
CONTINUES. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE
AROUND. BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. BEST CHANCE WESTERN
AIRPORTS/TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BACK SLIGHTLY
MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS AND FOR NOW
NONE NNJ WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST HAS TRIMMED SEA STATE BY 1
FOOT ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. IN WHICH CASE MAY
NEED TO EXPAND THE SCA INTO THE NNJ WATERS ON ONE OF OUR NEXT FCST
SHIFTS.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA FLAG CONTINUES SAT NIGHT AND THRU 800 AM SUN FOR
THE SRN NJ AND DEL COASTAL WATERS. NEAR SCA CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY. WHILE SOME
OF OUR GUIDANCE WAS SHOWING LOW RISK FOR DELAWARE, ONSHORE WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY THE HIGHEST ALONG OUR ATLANTIC COASTAL COUNTIES
ON SATURDAY. GIVEN THE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PERSIST INTO SUNDAY,
SO MIGHT THE MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...GIGI







000
FXUS61 KPHI 222335
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
735 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST COUPLE OF MESOSCALE HOURLY MODEL RUNS ARE SHIELDING THE ERN
PART OF OUR CWA IN THE NEAR NEAR TERM FROM MUCH PCPN. MORE BREAKS
ARE APPEARING IN THE CLOUDS AS THE VSB SATL IMAGERY IS SHOWING
LOWER CLOUDS ADVANCING TO THE WEST WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. SO EVENING ADJUSTMENT ARE TO LOWER POPS
EAST AND KEEP THEM AS IS WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON/CLOSE TO
SCHEDULE. BANKING ON CLOUDS REFORMING EAST, OR WE MAY BE A BIT TOO
HIGH DURING THE EVENING.

CALLING IT SCT SHOWERS (NUMEROUS FAR W SECTION OF OUR CWA) THRU
TONIGHT...MOST OF IT W NJ E PA AND THE DELMARVA.

AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS THAN WHAT OUR GRIDDED QPF
HAS AND IT COULD RAIN BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH ISOLATED 0.75 INCH AMTS
POSSIBLE IN E PA BY MORNING DUE TO PWAT STILL 1.5 MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE MD E SHORE AND FAR S
DE WHERE MORE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWAT.

NO THUNDER IN THE FCST ATTM SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS
RECEDED WWD JUST W OF OUR CWA WITH COOLER ELY FLOW INFLUX AND
SKYCOVER.

FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH WEAK VV DUE TO TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING
SWD FROM NYS AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND MAKE IT
A BLEAK SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD START DRYING OUT WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES
TOWARD 6 PM.

ENE WIND MAX GUST AROUND 20 MPH.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ONLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FCST
WILL BE ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY
SOUTH...SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER H5 TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA AND PLENTY OF DRIER AND SUBSIDING AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND IT.
WE WILL JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...AS WAS ALREADY IN THERE. TEMPS SAT NIGHT MID/UPPER 50S
NORTH/WEST AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS SLATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUN AND IT WILL ROTATE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA MON. THIS WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH COOL TEMPS SUN/MON.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE AND THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED/THU.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THU AND
THEN MOVE AWAY FRI. IT WILL PROBABLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WE HAVE JUST PAINTED SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW. A TROPICAL
SYSTEM MAY MOVE UP FROM THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY NORTH NORTHEAST WED-THU.
SINCE IT WILL BE STAYING WELL EAST OF THE AREA...IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ENHANCED
SEAS. WE WILL BE WATCHING ANY DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 00Z TAFS CONTINUED THE IDEA OF CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND IFR
THRESHOLD LATE TONIGHT.

FOR THIS EVENING, EXPECTING A MVFR CIG TO FORM IF NOT ALREADY
PRESENT. MENTION OF SHOWERS LATE AT KRDG. MOST OF THEM HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA. LIGHT EAST WINDS.

OVERNIGHT, GREATER CONFIDENCE OF A LOWER CIG FORMING. NOT AS
CONFIDENT ABOUT LOW MVFR VS IFR. IFR CIGS WERE KEPT AT TERMINALS
NEAR THE DELAWARE BAY AND WITH SOME ELEVATION, UPSLOPE FLOW. ANOTHER
SHOT OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH. HIGHEST CONFID AT
KABE. SOME MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG MAY ALSO OCCUR LATE. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST.

ON SATURDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE MORNING
CONTINUES. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE
AROUND. BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. BEST CHANCE WESTERN
AIRPORTS/TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BACK SLIGHTLY
MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS AND FOR NOW
NONE NNJ WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST HAS TRIMMED SEA STATE BY 1
FOOT ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. IN WHICH CASE MAY
NEED TO EXPAND THE SCA INTO THE NNJ WATERS ON ONE OF OUR NEXT FCST
SHIFTS.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA FLAG CONTINUES SAT NIGHT AND THRU 800 AM SUN FOR
THE SRN NJ AND DEL COASTAL WATERS. NEAR SCA CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS PROBABLY INCREASES
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL OF 4
FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15
KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 222335
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
735 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST COUPLE OF MESOSCALE HOURLY MODEL RUNS ARE SHIELDING THE ERN
PART OF OUR CWA IN THE NEAR NEAR TERM FROM MUCH PCPN. MORE BREAKS
ARE APPEARING IN THE CLOUDS AS THE VSB SATL IMAGERY IS SHOWING
LOWER CLOUDS ADVANCING TO THE WEST WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. SO EVENING ADJUSTMENT ARE TO LOWER POPS
EAST AND KEEP THEM AS IS WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON/CLOSE TO
SCHEDULE. BANKING ON CLOUDS REFORMING EAST, OR WE MAY BE A BIT TOO
HIGH DURING THE EVENING.

CALLING IT SCT SHOWERS (NUMEROUS FAR W SECTION OF OUR CWA) THRU
TONIGHT...MOST OF IT W NJ E PA AND THE DELMARVA.

AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS THAN WHAT OUR GRIDDED QPF
HAS AND IT COULD RAIN BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH ISOLATED 0.75 INCH AMTS
POSSIBLE IN E PA BY MORNING DUE TO PWAT STILL 1.5 MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE MD E SHORE AND FAR S
DE WHERE MORE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWAT.

NO THUNDER IN THE FCST ATTM SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS
RECEDED WWD JUST W OF OUR CWA WITH COOLER ELY FLOW INFLUX AND
SKYCOVER.

FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH WEAK VV DUE TO TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING
SWD FROM NYS AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND MAKE IT
A BLEAK SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD START DRYING OUT WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES
TOWARD 6 PM.

ENE WIND MAX GUST AROUND 20 MPH.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ONLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FCST
WILL BE ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY
SOUTH...SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER H5 TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA AND PLENTY OF DRIER AND SUBSIDING AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND IT.
WE WILL JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...AS WAS ALREADY IN THERE. TEMPS SAT NIGHT MID/UPPER 50S
NORTH/WEST AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS SLATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUN AND IT WILL ROTATE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA MON. THIS WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH COOL TEMPS SUN/MON.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE AND THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED/THU.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THU AND
THEN MOVE AWAY FRI. IT WILL PROBABLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WE HAVE JUST PAINTED SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW. A TROPICAL
SYSTEM MAY MOVE UP FROM THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY NORTH NORTHEAST WED-THU.
SINCE IT WILL BE STAYING WELL EAST OF THE AREA...IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ENHANCED
SEAS. WE WILL BE WATCHING ANY DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THE 00Z TAFS CONTINUED THE IDEA OF CIGS LOWERING TO AROUND IFR
THRESHOLD LATE TONIGHT.

FOR THIS EVENING, EXPECTING A MVFR CIG TO FORM IF NOT ALREADY
PRESENT. MENTION OF SHOWERS LATE AT KRDG. MOST OF THEM HAVE BEEN
DISSIPATING BEFORE REACHING OUR AREA. LIGHT EAST WINDS.

OVERNIGHT, GREATER CONFIDENCE OF A LOWER CIG FORMING. NOT AS
CONFIDENT ABOUT LOW MVFR VS IFR. IFR CIGS WERE KEPT AT TERMINALS
NEAR THE DELAWARE BAY AND WITH SOME ELEVATION, UPSLOPE FLOW. ANOTHER
SHOT OF SHOWERS IS EXPECTED TO COME THROUGH. HIGHEST CONFID AT
KABE. SOME MVFR VSBYS DUE TO FOG MAY ALSO OCCUR LATE. WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LIGHT FROM THE EAST.

ON SATURDAY, CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AS THE MORNING
CONTINUES. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE
AFTERNOON. SOME WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD BE
AROUND. BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE. BEST CHANCE WESTERN
AIRPORTS/TERMINALS DURING THE MORNING. WINDS SHOULD BACK SLIGHTLY
MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST, WITH SPEEDS GENERALLY 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS AND FOR NOW
NONE NNJ WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST HAS TRIMMED SEA STATE BY 1
FOOT ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. IN WHICH CASE MAY
NEED TO EXPAND THE SCA INTO THE NNJ WATERS ON ONE OF OUR NEXT FCST
SHIFTS.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA FLAG CONTINUES SAT NIGHT AND THRU 800 AM SUN FOR
THE SRN NJ AND DEL COASTAL WATERS. NEAR SCA CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS PROBABLY INCREASES
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL OF 4
FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15
KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...GIGI/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 222143
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
543 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST COUPLE OF MESOSCALE HOURLY MODEL RUNS ARE SHIELDING THE ERN
PART OF OUR CWA IN THE NEAR NEAR TERM FROM MUCH PCPN. MORE BREAKS
ARE APPEARING IN THE CLOUDS AS THE VSB SATL IMAGERY IS SHOWING
LOWER CLOUDS ADVANCING TO THE WEST WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. SO EVENING ADJUSTMENT ARE TO LOWER POPS
EAST AND KEEP THEM AS IS WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON/CLOSE TO
SCHEDULE. BANKING ON CLOUDS REFORMING EAST, OR WE MAY BE A BIT TOO
HIGH DURING THE EVENING.

CALLING IT SCT SHOWERS (NUMEROUS FAR W SECTION OF OUR CWA) THRU
TONIGHT...MOST OF IT W NJ E PA AND THE DELMARVA.

AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS THAN WHAT OUR GRIDDED QPF
HAS AND IT COULD RAIN BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH ISOLATED 0.75 INCH AMTS
POSSIBLE IN E PA BY MORNING DUE TO PWAT STILL 1.5 MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE MD E SHORE AND FAR S
DE WHERE MORE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWAT.

NO THUNDER IN THE FCST ATTM SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS
RECEDED WWD JUST W OF OUR CWA WITH COOLER ELY FLOW INFLUX AND
SKYCOVER.

FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH WEAK VV DUE TO TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING
SWD FROM NYS AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND MAKE IT
A BLEAK SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD START DRYING OUT WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES
TOWARD 6 PM.

ENE WIND MAX GUST AROUND 20 MPH.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ONLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FCST
WILL BE ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY
SOUTH...SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER H5 TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA AND PLENTY OF DRIER AND SUBSIDING AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND IT.
WE WILL JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...AS WAS ALREADY IN THERE. TEMPS SAT NIGHT MID/UPPER 50S
NORTH/WEST AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS SLATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUN AND IT WILL ROTATE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA MON. THIS WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH COOL TEMPS SUN/MON.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE AND THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED/THU.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THU AND
THEN MOVE AWAY FRI. IT WILL PROBABLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WE HAVE JUST PAINTED SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW. A TROPICAL
SYSTEM MAY MOVE UP FROM THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY NORTH NORTHEAST WED-THU.
SINCE IT WILL BE STAYING WELL EAST OF THE AREA...IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ENHANCED
SEAS. WE WILL BE WATCHING ANY DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDS WHEN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING. LIGHT E OR NE FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING DIMINISHING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ENE WIND WITH MAX GUST 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS AND FOR NOW
NONE NNJ WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST HAS TRIMMED SEA STATE BY 1
FOOT ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. IN WHICH CASE MAY
NEED TO EXPAND THE SCA INTO THE NNJ WATERS ON ONE OF OUR NEXT FCST
SHIFTS.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA FLAG CONTINUES SAT NIGHT AND THRU 800 AM SUN FOR
THE SRN NJ AND DEL COASTAL WATERS. NEAR SCA CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS PROBABLY INCREASES
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL OF 4
FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15
KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 222143
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
543 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
LATEST COUPLE OF MESOSCALE HOURLY MODEL RUNS ARE SHIELDING THE ERN
PART OF OUR CWA IN THE NEAR NEAR TERM FROM MUCH PCPN. MORE BREAKS
ARE APPEARING IN THE CLOUDS AS THE VSB SATL IMAGERY IS SHOWING
LOWER CLOUDS ADVANCING TO THE WEST WHILE HIGHER CLOUDS ARE MOVING
TOWARD THE SOUTHEAST. SO EVENING ADJUSTMENT ARE TO LOWER POPS
EAST AND KEEP THEM AS IS WEST. TEMPERATURES ARE ON/CLOSE TO
SCHEDULE. BANKING ON CLOUDS REFORMING EAST, OR WE MAY BE A BIT TOO
HIGH DURING THE EVENING.

CALLING IT SCT SHOWERS (NUMEROUS FAR W SECTION OF OUR CWA) THRU
TONIGHT...MOST OF IT W NJ E PA AND THE DELMARVA.

AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS THAN WHAT OUR GRIDDED QPF
HAS AND IT COULD RAIN BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH ISOLATED 0.75 INCH AMTS
POSSIBLE IN E PA BY MORNING DUE TO PWAT STILL 1.5 MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE MD E SHORE AND FAR S
DE WHERE MORE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWAT.

NO THUNDER IN THE FCST ATTM SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS
RECEDED WWD JUST W OF OUR CWA WITH COOLER ELY FLOW INFLUX AND
SKYCOVER.

FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH WEAK VV DUE TO TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING
SWD FROM NYS AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND MAKE IT
A BLEAK SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD START DRYING OUT WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES
TOWARD 6 PM.

ENE WIND MAX GUST AROUND 20 MPH.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ONLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FCST
WILL BE ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY
SOUTH...SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER H5 TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA AND PLENTY OF DRIER AND SUBSIDING AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND IT.
WE WILL JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...AS WAS ALREADY IN THERE. TEMPS SAT NIGHT MID/UPPER 50S
NORTH/WEST AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS SLATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUN AND IT WILL ROTATE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA MON. THIS WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH COOL TEMPS SUN/MON.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE AND THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED/THU.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THU AND
THEN MOVE AWAY FRI. IT WILL PROBABLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WE HAVE JUST PAINTED SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW. A TROPICAL
SYSTEM MAY MOVE UP FROM THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY NORTH NORTHEAST WED-THU.
SINCE IT WILL BE STAYING WELL EAST OF THE AREA...IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ENHANCED
SEAS. WE WILL BE WATCHING ANY DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDS WHEN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING. LIGHT E OR NE FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING DIMINISHING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ENE WIND WITH MAX GUST 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS AND FOR NOW
NONE NNJ WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST HAS TRIMMED SEA STATE BY 1
FOOT ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. IN WHICH CASE MAY
NEED TO EXPAND THE SCA INTO THE NNJ WATERS ON ONE OF OUR NEXT FCST
SHIFTS.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA FLAG CONTINUES SAT NIGHT AND THRU 800 AM SUN FOR
THE SRN NJ AND DEL COASTAL WATERS. NEAR SCA CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS PROBABLY INCREASES
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL OF 4
FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15
KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG/GIGI
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 221906
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
306 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN PROGRESS BOTH LOW TOP UNDER 4000 FT
MOVING WWD ON TPHL NEAR THE DEL RIVER AT 1845Z AND DEEPER NW FLOW
SHOWERS AS SEEN ON GENERAL RADARS.

IN THE MEANTIME CALLING IT SCT SHOWERS (NUMEROUS FAR W SECTION OF
OUR CWA) THRU TONIGHT...MOST OF IT W NJ E PA AND THE DELMARVA.

AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS THAN WHAT OUR GRIDDED QPF
HAS AND IT COULD RAIN BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH ISOLATED 0.75 INCH AMTS
POSSIBLE IN E PA BY MORNING DUE TO PWAT STILL 1.5 MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE MD E SHORE AND FAR S
DE WHERE MORE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWAT.

NO THUNDER IN THE FCST ATTM SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS
RECEDED WWD JUST W OF OUR CWA WITH COOLER ELY FLOW INFLUX AND
SKYCOVER.

FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH WEAK VV DUE TO TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING
SWD FROM NYS AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND MAKE IT
A BLEAK SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD START DRYING OUT WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES
TOWARD 6 PM.

ENE WIND MAX GUST AROUND 20 MPH.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ONLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FCST
WILL BE ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY
SOUTH...SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER H5 TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA AND PLENTY OF DRIER AND SUBSIDING AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND IT.
WE WILL JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...AS WAS ALREADY IN THERE. TEMPS SAT NIGHT MID/UPPER 50S
NORTH/WEST AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS SLATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUN AND IT WILL ROTATE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA MON. THIS WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH COOL TEMPS SUN/MON.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE AND THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED/THU.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THU AND
THEN MOVE AWAY FRI. IT WILL PROBABLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WE HAVE JUST PAINTED SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW. A TROPICAL
SYSTEM MAY MOVE UP FROM THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY NORTH NORTHEAST WED-THU.
SINCE IT WILL BE STAYING WELL EAST OF THE AREA...IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ENHANCED
SEAS. WE WILL BE WATCHING ANY DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS MAINLY 2000 TO 3500 FT WITH
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS MAYBE REDUCING VSBY TO 5 MI. ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY DRIFT TOWARD KRDG LATE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KRDG. ELY
FLOW MAX GUST 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDS WHEN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING. LIGHT E OR NE FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING DIMINISHING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ENE WIND WITH MAX GUST 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS AND FOR NOW
NONE NNJ WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST HAS TRIMMED SEA STATE BY 1
FOOT ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. IN WHICH CASE MAY
NEED TO EXPAND THE SCA INTO THE NNJ WATERS ON ONE OF OUR NEXT FCST
SHIFTS.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA FLAG CONTINUES SAT NIGHT AND THRU 800 AM SUN FOR
THE SRN NJ AND DEL COASTAL WATERS. NEAR SCA CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS PROBABLY INCREASES
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL OF 4
FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15
KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221906
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
306 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE FROM SOUTHEAST CANADA WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD FOR SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HIGH WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE MOVING AWAY THURSDAY. A COLD
FRONT MAY AFFECT THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN PROGRESS BOTH LOW TOP UNDER 4000 FT
MOVING WWD ON TPHL NEAR THE DEL RIVER AT 1845Z AND DEEPER NW FLOW
SHOWERS AS SEEN ON GENERAL RADARS.

IN THE MEANTIME CALLING IT SCT SHOWERS (NUMEROUS FAR W SECTION OF
OUR CWA) THRU TONIGHT...MOST OF IT W NJ E PA AND THE DELMARVA.

AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS THAN WHAT OUR GRIDDED QPF
HAS AND IT COULD RAIN BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH ISOLATED 0.75 INCH AMTS
POSSIBLE IN E PA BY MORNING DUE TO PWAT STILL 1.5 MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE MD E SHORE AND FAR S
DE WHERE MORE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWAT.

NO THUNDER IN THE FCST ATTM SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS
RECEDED WWD JUST W OF OUR CWA WITH COOLER ELY FLOW INFLUX AND
SKYCOVER.

FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH WEAK VV DUE TO TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING
SWD FROM NYS AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND MAKE IT
A BLEAK SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD START DRYING OUT WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES
TOWARD 6 PM.

ENE WIND MAX GUST AROUND 20 MPH.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE ONLY UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR THE LONG TERM PART OF THE FCST
WILL BE ANY LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE AREA...MOSTLY
SOUTH...SATURDAY EVENING. THE UPPER H5 TROUGH WILL BE CROSSING THE
AREA AND PLENTY OF DRIER AND SUBSIDING AIR WILL ARRIVE BEHIND IT.
WE WILL JUST KEEP THE SLGT CHC POPS FOR SRN NJ AND THE
DELMARVA...AS WAS ALREADY IN THERE. TEMPS SAT NIGHT MID/UPPER 50S
NORTH/WEST AND LOW 60S ELSEWHERE.

AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER IS SLATED FROM SUNDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD UP ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES SUN AND IT WILL ROTATE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION NEXT WEEK. A STRONG SFC HIGH WILL CREST OVER THE
AREA MON. THIS WILL BRING PLEASANT WEATHER WITH COOL TEMPS SUN/MON.
TEMPS WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL FOR TUE AND THEN CLIMB ABOVE NORMAL
FOR WED/THU.

THE NEXT DISTURBANCE THAT WILL AFFECT THE AREA WILL ARRIVE THU AND
THEN MOVE AWAY FRI. IT WILL PROBABLY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. WE HAVE JUST PAINTED SOME SLGT CHC POPS FOR NOW. A TROPICAL
SYSTEM MAY MOVE UP FROM THE BAHAMAS TUESDAY NORTH NORTHEAST WED-THU.
SINCE IT WILL BE STAYING WELL EAST OF THE AREA...IT IS NOT EXPECTED
TO AFFECT OUR WEATHER...EXCEPT FOR THE POSSIBILITY FOR SOME ENHANCED
SEAS. WE WILL BE WATCHING ANY DEVELOPMENTS THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS MAINLY 2000 TO 3500 FT WITH
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS MAYBE REDUCING VSBY TO 5 MI. ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY DRIFT TOWARD KRDG LATE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KRDG. ELY
FLOW MAX GUST 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDS WHEN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING. LIGHT E OR NE FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING DIMINISHING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ENE WIND WITH MAX GUST 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS AND FOR NOW
NONE NNJ WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST HAS TRIMMED SEA STATE BY 1
FOOT ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. IN WHICH CASE MAY
NEED TO EXPAND THE SCA INTO THE NNJ WATERS ON ONE OF OUR NEXT FCST
SHIFTS.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...SCA FLAG CONTINUES SAT NIGHT AND THRU 800 AM SUN FOR
THE SRN NJ AND DEL COASTAL WATERS. NEAR SCA CONDITIONS FURTHER NORTH.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS PROBABLY INCREASES
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL OF 4
FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15
KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 221858
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
258 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN PROGRESS BOTH LOW TOP UNDER 4000 FT
MOVING WWD ON TPHL NEAR THE DEL RIVER AT 1845Z AND DEEPER NW FLOW
SHOWERS AS SEEN ON GENERAL RADARS.

IN THE MEANTIME CALLING IT SCT SHOWERS (NUMEROUS FAR W SECTION OF
OUR CWA) THRU TONIGHT...MOST OF IT W NJ E PA AND THE DELMARVA.

AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS THAN WHAT OUR GRIDDED QPF
HAS AND IT COULD RAIN BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH ISOLATED 0.75 INCH AMTS
POSSIBLE IN E PA BY MORNING DUE TO PWAT STILL 1.5 MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE MD E SHORE AND FAR S
DE WHERE MORE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWAT.

NO THUNDER IN THE FCST ATTM SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS
RECEDED WWD JUST W OF OUR CWA WITH COOLER ELY FLOW INFLUX AND
SKYCOVER.

FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH WEAK VV DUE TO TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING
SWD FROM NYS AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND MAKE IT
A BLEAK SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD START DRYING OUT WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES
TOWARD 6 PM.

ENE WIND MAX GUST AROUND 20 MPH.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO
LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL
BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS MAINLY 2000 TO 3500 FT WITH
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS MAYBE REDUCING VSBY TO 5 MI. ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY DRIFT TOWARD KRDG LATE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KRDG. ELY
FLOW MAX GUST 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDS WHEN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING. LIGHT E OR NE FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING DIMINISHING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ENE WIND WITH MAX GUST 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS AND FOR NOW
NONE NNJ WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST HAS TRIMMED SEA STATE BY 1
FOOT ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. IN WHICH CASE MAY
NEED TO EXPAND THE SCA INTO THE NNJ WATERS ON ONE OF OUR NEXT FCST
SHIFTS.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS PROBABLY INCREASES
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL OF 4
FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15
KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  258
SHORT TERM...DRAG 258
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 258
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON 258
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG 258






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221858
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
258 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS IN PROGRESS BOTH LOW TOP UNDER 4000 FT
MOVING WWD ON TPHL NEAR THE DEL RIVER AT 1845Z AND DEEPER NW FLOW
SHOWERS AS SEEN ON GENERAL RADARS.

IN THE MEANTIME CALLING IT SCT SHOWERS (NUMEROUS FAR W SECTION OF
OUR CWA) THRU TONIGHT...MOST OF IT W NJ E PA AND THE DELMARVA.

AMOUNTS MAY BE A LITTLE MORE GENEROUS THAN WHAT OUR GRIDDED QPF
HAS AND IT COULD RAIN BRIEFLY HEAVY WITH ISOLATED 0.75 INCH AMTS
POSSIBLE IN E PA BY MORNING DUE TO PWAT STILL 1.5 MUCH OF THE
NIGHT. SLIGHTLY HIGHER 1 INCH AMTS POSSIBLE MD E SHORE AND FAR S
DE WHERE MORE INSTABILITY AND HIGHER PWAT.

NO THUNDER IN THE FCST ATTM SINCE MOST OF THE INSTABILITY HAS
RECEDED WWD JUST W OF OUR CWA WITH COOLER ELY FLOW INFLUX AND
SKYCOVER.

FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE
GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
DEEP MOISTURE SATURDAY WITH WEAK VV DUE TO TROUGH AXIS ALOFT SWINGING
SWD FROM NYS AS WELL AS WEAK LOW LVL UPSLOPE FLOW COULD RESULT IN
MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR A TIME DURING THE MORNING AND MAKE IT
A BLEAK SATURDAY MORNING.

SATURDAY AFTN SHOULD START DRYING OUT WITH BRIGHTENING SKIES
TOWARD 6 PM.

ENE WIND MAX GUST AROUND 20 MPH.

50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO
LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL
BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS MAINLY 2000 TO 3500 FT WITH
SCT LIGHT SHOWERS MAYBE REDUCING VSBY TO 5 MI. ISOLATED THUNDER
MAY DRIFT TOWARD KRDG LATE BUT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH KRDG. ELY
FLOW MAX GUST 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDS WHEN SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING. LIGHT E OR NE FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED OR NUMEROUS SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING DIMINISHING DURING
THE AFTERNOON. ENE WIND WITH MAX GUST 20 KT.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...SCA ISSUED FOR THE SNJ AND DE ATLC WATERS AND FOR NOW
NONE NNJ WATERS. HOWEVER...THIS FCST HAS TRIMMED SEA STATE BY 1
FOOT ON SATURDAY AND WE MAY BE TOO CONSERVATIVE. IN WHICH CASE MAY
NEED TO EXPAND THE SCA INTO THE NNJ WATERS ON ONE OF OUR NEXT FCST
SHIFTS.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS PROBABLY INCREASES
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL OF 4
FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW OF 15
KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS...ESPECIALLY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON SATURDAY TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR
     ANZ452>455.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  258
SHORT TERM...DRAG 258
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 258
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON 258
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG 258







000
FXUS61 KPHI 221702
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
102 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE; SPRINKLES OCCURRING AT THE OFFICE NOW AS SEEN ON
TPHL..MOVING WEST..SHALLOW LOW TOPPED UNDER 4000 FT.

MEANWHILE SCT SHOWERS IN DEEPER MOISTURE FLOWING SEWD FROM CENTRAL
PA WILL PROBABLY AFFECT INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF E PA AND THE
DELMARVA THIS AFTN AND THUS OUR FCST OF SCT SHOWERS.

WHETHER THERE IS ANY THUNDER IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND NOT LIKELY
EXCEPT MAYBE THE DELMARVA. THUNDER COVERAGE HAS BEEN REDUCED IN
THE FCST BY USING WX TOOL AOB SBLI -2.

OTRW MOCLOUDY. LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

SO I`VE SORT OF GIVEN UP ON THE IDEA OF BIG TSTMS PRODUCING POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING RAINS IN E PA TONIGHT BUT I`D LIKE ANOTHER LOOK
AT LATER MODEL GUIDANCE AROUND 215 PM.

OTRW TONIGHT MO CLOUDY WITH A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS...MOSTLY LIGHT.

THE FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE ALREADY UPDATED THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SUING THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE ON SATURDAY MIGHT RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
FOR A TIME. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IN ENE FLOW MAX GUST 20 MPH.
50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO
LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL
BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS 1500 TO 3000 FT WITH SCT SPRINKLES
MAYBE REDUCING VSBY TO 5 MI. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE DELMARVA AND
E PA LATE BUT NOT ENVISIONED PREDOMINANT. ELY FLOW MAX GUST 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDS IF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING. LIGHT E OR NE FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS MAY INCREASE
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL
OF 3 TO 4 FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW OF 15 KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  102
SHORT TERM...DRAG 102
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 102
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON 102
RIP CURRENTS...102







000
FXUS61 KPHI 221702
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
102 PM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1230 PM UPDATE; SPRINKLES OCCURRING AT THE OFFICE NOW AS SEEN ON
TPHL..MOVING WEST..SHALLOW LOW TOPPED UNDER 4000 FT.

MEANWHILE SCT SHOWERS IN DEEPER MOISTURE FLOWING SEWD FROM CENTRAL
PA WILL PROBABLY AFFECT INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF E PA AND THE
DELMARVA THIS AFTN AND THUS OUR FCST OF SCT SHOWERS.

WHETHER THERE IS ANY THUNDER IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND NOT LIKELY
EXCEPT MAYBE THE DELMARVA. THUNDER COVERAGE HAS BEEN REDUCED IN
THE FCST BY USING WX TOOL AOB SBLI -2.

OTRW MOCLOUDY. LOWERED TEMPS A FEW DEGREES DUE TO CLOUD COVER.

SO I`VE SORT OF GIVEN UP ON THE IDEA OF BIG TSTMS PRODUCING POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING RAINS IN E PA TONIGHT BUT I`D LIKE ANOTHER LOOK
AT LATER MODEL GUIDANCE AROUND 215 PM.

OTRW TONIGHT MO CLOUDY WITH A FEW BANDS OF SHOWERS...MOSTLY LIGHT.

THE FCST TEMPS/DEWPOINTS AND WINDS ARE ALREADY UPDATED THROUGH
SATURDAY AFTERNOON SUING THE 12Z/22 50 50 BLEND OF THE GFS/NAM
MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
DEEPER MOISTURE ON SATURDAY MIGHT RESULT IN MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
FOR A TIME. CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS IN ENE FLOW MAX GUST 20 MPH.
50 50 BLENDED 12Z/22 GFS/NAM MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO
LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL
BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON...CIGS 1500 TO 3000 FT WITH SCT SPRINKLES
MAYBE REDUCING VSBY TO 5 MI. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE DELMARVA AND
E PA LATE BUT NOT ENVISIONED PREDOMINANT. ELY FLOW MAX GUST 15 KT.

TONIGHT...CIGS GRADUALLY LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES WITH GREATER POTENTIAL
FOR IFR CONDS IF SHOWERS/DRIZZLE ARE OCCURRING. LIGHT E OR NE FLOW.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
LOW ENHANCED RISK THIS AFTERNOON.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS MAY INCREASE
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL
OF 3 TO 4 FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW OF 15 KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  102
SHORT TERM...DRAG 102
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 102
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON 102
RIP CURRENTS...102






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221427
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1027 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1017AM UPDATE TO ADD SPRINKLES INTO THE LATE MORNING PORTION OF
THE FCST AWAY FROM THE COAST AND OTHERWISE DIMINISHED THE CHANCE
OF RAIN ALONG THE COAST TO NO MENTION.

PWAT 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES WITH ML CAPE 500 TO 1000J SETS THE STAGE
FOR MORE GULLY WASHERS LATE THIS AFTN OR TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN
E PA AND OR W NJ AS PER THE 06Z NAM. SUCCESSIVE CYCLES OF THE NAM
AND THE 00Z/21 NSSL WRF AS WELL AS THE ECMWF TO SOME EXTENT WERE
THE BEST MODELS AT HIGHLIGHTING LAST NIGHTS TORRENTS THAT IN SOME
PLACES WERE EXCESSIVE ACROSS NE PA AND NW NJ. LSR`S AND PNS`S WILL
HIGHLIGHT THOSE AMTS.

THIS MORNING...WE`RE IN A LULL AS PER COSPA/HRRR AND INN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING AND THINNING THE CIGS OF 500 TO 1500 FT.

THIS AFTERNOON...COOLER THAN YDY DUE TO COMBINED CLOUD AND EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HOW MUCH DEVELOPS IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS IS
DEBATABLE BUT MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH OUR EARLIER FCST.

TONIGHT...UPSLOPE FLOW AND POSSIBLY A NW FLOW SHORT WAVE TRIGGER
MAY BE FAVORING A POCKET OR TWO OF EXCESSIVE RAIN IN E PA. JURY
STILL OUT ON THIS AND AM UNLIKELY TO HIT THIS HARD TONIGHT PER
THE 12Z/22 NAM DELAY AND FURTHER WEST...NOW AXISED FROM KILG-
KIPT. STILL SOMETHING SUBSTANTIAL IS LIKELY TO OCCUR IN A NARROW
SWATH OF E PA SOMETIME LATER TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
ALMOST SEEMS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD; THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA. ONCE THIS IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING,
SHOWER CHANCES DROP OFF OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

CONTINUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO
LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL
BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...CIGS 700 TO 2000 FT AT 14Z WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MAINLY
VFR CIGS THIS AFTN. SCATTERED SPRINKLES POSSIBLE THIS MORNING.
SCATTERED HEAVIER SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER TODAY, SO THEY
WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AS VCSH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING WAS LOW, SO
THEY WERE KEPT OUT FOR NOW. WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE EAST SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...WE EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATER
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS MOISTURE POOLS AT THE LOW-
LEVEL INVERSION. IN FACT, CIGS MAY END UP LOWERING TO IFR FOR MANY
AREAS OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A TSTM...ESPECIALLY E PA TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
RIGHT NOW LOW RISK TODAY SINCE THE GUSTY EAST WINDS OF VERY EARLY
THIS MORNING HAVE SUBSIDED.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS MAY INCREASE
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL
OF 3 TO 4 FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW OF 15 KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  1026
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 1026
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221339
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PWAT 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES WITH ML CAPE 500 TO 1000J SETS THE STAGE
FOR MORE GULLY WASHERS LATE THIS AFTN OR TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN
E PA AND OR W NJ AS PER THE 06Z NAM. SUCCESSIVE CYCLES OF THE NAM
AND THE 00Z/21 NSSL WRF AS WELL AS THE ECMWF TO SOME EXTENT WERE
THE BEST MODELS AT HIGHLIGHTING LAST NIGHTS TORRENTS THAT IN SOME
PLACES WERE EXCESSIVE ACROSS NE PA AND NW NJ. LSR`S AND PNS`S WILL
HIGHLIGHT THOSE AMTS.

THIS MORNING...WE`RE IN A LULL AS PER COSPA/HRRR AND INN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING AND THINNING THE CIGS OF 500 TO 1500 FT.

THIS AFTERNOON...COOLER THAN YDY DUE TO COMBINED CLOUD AND EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HOW MUCH DEVELOPS IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS IS
DEBATABLE BUT MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH OUR EARLIER FCST.

TONIGHT...UPSLOPE FLOW AND POSSIBLY A NW FLOW SHORT WAVE TRIGGER
MAY BE FAVORING A POCKET OR TWO OF EXCESSIVE RAIN IN E PA. JURY
STILL OUT ON THIS BUT NEED TO SEE HOW THE 12Z/22 NAM HANDLES QPF
POTENTIAL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
ALMOST SEEMS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD; THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA. ONCE THIS IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING,
SHOWER CHANCES DROP OFF OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

CONTINUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO
LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL
BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...CIGS 500 TO 1500 FT AT 13Z WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MAINLY VFR
CIGS THIS AFTN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER TODAY,
SO THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AS VCSH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING WAS LOW, SO
THEY WERE KEPT OUT FOR NOW. WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE EAST SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...WE EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATER
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS MOISTURE POOLS AT THE LOW-
LEVEL INVERSION. IN FACT, CIGS MAY END UP LOWERING TO IFR FOR MANY
AREAS OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A TSTM...ESPECIALLY E PA TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
RIGHT NOW LOW RISK TODAY SINCE THE GUSTY EAST WINDS OF VERY EARLY
THIS MORNING HAVE SUBSIDED.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS MAY INCREASE
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL
OF 3 TO 4 FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW OF 15 KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON  938
SHORT TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 938
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 938
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 938
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG 938






000
FXUS61 KPHI 221339
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PWAT 1.5 TO 1.75 INCHES WITH ML CAPE 500 TO 1000J SETS THE STAGE
FOR MORE GULLY WASHERS LATE THIS AFTN OR TONIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN
E PA AND OR W NJ AS PER THE 06Z NAM. SUCCESSIVE CYCLES OF THE NAM
AND THE 00Z/21 NSSL WRF AS WELL AS THE ECMWF TO SOME EXTENT WERE
THE BEST MODELS AT HIGHLIGHTING LAST NIGHTS TORRENTS THAT IN SOME
PLACES WERE EXCESSIVE ACROSS NE PA AND NW NJ. LSR`S AND PNS`S WILL
HIGHLIGHT THOSE AMTS.

THIS MORNING...WE`RE IN A LULL AS PER COSPA/HRRR AND INN THE
PROCESS OF LIFTING AND THINNING THE CIGS OF 500 TO 1500 FT.

THIS AFTERNOON...COOLER THAN YDY DUE TO COMBINED CLOUD AND EAST-
SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. HOW MUCH DEVELOPS IN THE WAY OF SHOWERS IS
DEBATABLE BUT MAINTAINED CONTINUITY WITH OUR EARLIER FCST.

TONIGHT...UPSLOPE FLOW AND POSSIBLY A NW FLOW SHORT WAVE TRIGGER
MAY BE FAVORING A POCKET OR TWO OF EXCESSIVE RAIN IN E PA. JURY
STILL OUT ON THIS BUT NEED TO SEE HOW THE 12Z/22 NAM HANDLES QPF
POTENTIAL.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY/...
ALMOST SEEMS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD; THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY
EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE
AREA. ONCE THIS IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING,
SHOWER CHANCES DROP OFF OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

CONTINUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN OVER THE
REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY
WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH
DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO
LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE
AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL
BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...CIGS 500 TO 1500 FT AT 13Z WILL SLOWLY LIFT TO MAINLY VFR
CIGS THIS AFTN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE LATER TODAY,
SO THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS AS VCSH. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING WAS LOW, SO
THEY WERE KEPT OUT FOR NOW. WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF
THE EAST SOUTHEAST 5-10 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 15 KT POSSIBLE.

TONIGHT...WE EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATER
THIS EVENING ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS MOISTURE POOLS AT THE LOW-
LEVEL INVERSION. IN FACT, CIGS MAY END UP LOWERING TO IFR FOR MANY
AREAS OVERNIGHT. CHANCE OF SHOWERS OR A TSTM...ESPECIALLY E PA TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS.

SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR CIGS DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE.

OUTLOOK...

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

SATURDAY...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS AS
EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH.


OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM
THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
RIGHT NOW LOW RISK TODAY SINCE THE GUSTY EAST WINDS OF VERY EARLY
THIS MORNING HAVE SUBSIDED.

THE RISK FOR THE FORMATION OF DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS MAY INCREASE
TO MODERATE THIS WEEKEND ALONG THE NJ COAST WITH EASTERLY SWELL
OF 3 TO 4 FEET AT 7 SECONDS COMBINING WITH THE PERSISTENT ONSHORE
FLOW OF 15 KT TO BUILD THE WATER BEHIND THE SAND BARS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON  938
SHORT TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 938
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 938
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 938
RIP CURRENTS...DRAG 938







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220756
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE PUSHING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THEY HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING
ALONG A THETA-E AND INSTABILITY DIFFERENTIAL LINE AS THE SHORT
WAVE/VORT MAX ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, SO THIS
SHOWER/THUNDER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK, BUT
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY THAT TIME. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY
WANES, WE SHOULD GET A BREAK IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOR THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA, WHILE THE COAST MAY REMAIN DRY LATER
TODAY. THERE REMAINS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY, SO THERE WILL REMAIN THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. AS WITH
YESTERDAY, WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT AND MINIMAL
SHEAR, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP, THEY COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, IN ADDITION TO HEAVY
RAIN AS PW VALUES REMAIN 1.5-1.75 INCHES. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SMALL HAIL IF THERE ARE ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. AGAIN, THE BEST FAVORED AREAS ARE THE WESTERN HALF/TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA IN THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA.

ALMOST SEEMS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD; THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE
THIS IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING, SHOWER CHANCES
DROP OFF OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

CONTINUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN
OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED
ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. THE DISTURBANCE
THAT CREATED THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING, AND
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO VFR AS DAYTIME
MIXING TAKES PLACE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY, SO
THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING WAS LOW, SO
THEY WERE KEPT OUT FOR NOW. WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
EAST 5-10 KNOTS.

WE EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS MOISTURE POOLS AT THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION.
IN FACT, CIGS MAY END UP LOWERING TO IFR FOR MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 220756
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE PUSHING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THEY HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING
ALONG A THETA-E AND INSTABILITY DIFFERENTIAL LINE AS THE SHORT
WAVE/VORT MAX ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, SO THIS
SHOWER/THUNDER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK, BUT
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY THAT TIME. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY
WANES, WE SHOULD GET A BREAK IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOR THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA, WHILE THE COAST MAY REMAIN DRY LATER
TODAY. THERE REMAINS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY, SO THERE WILL REMAIN THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. AS WITH
YESTERDAY, WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT AND MINIMAL
SHEAR, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP, THEY COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, IN ADDITION TO HEAVY
RAIN AS PW VALUES REMAIN 1.5-1.75 INCHES. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SMALL HAIL IF THERE ARE ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. AGAIN, THE BEST FAVORED AREAS ARE THE WESTERN HALF/TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA IN THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA.

ALMOST SEEMS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD; THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE
THIS IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING, SHOWER CHANCES
DROP OFF OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

CONTINUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN
OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED
ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. THE DISTURBANCE
THAT CREATED THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING, AND
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO VFR AS DAYTIME
MIXING TAKES PLACE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY, SO
THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING WAS LOW, SO
THEY WERE KEPT OUT FOR NOW. WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
EAST 5-10 KNOTS.

WE EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS MOISTURE POOLS AT THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION.
IN FACT, CIGS MAY END UP LOWERING TO IFR FOR MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 220756
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE PUSHING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THEY HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING
ALONG A THETA-E AND INSTABILITY DIFFERENTIAL LINE AS THE SHORT
WAVE/VORT MAX ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, SO THIS
SHOWER/THUNDER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK, BUT
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY THAT TIME. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY
WANES, WE SHOULD GET A BREAK IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOR THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA, WHILE THE COAST MAY REMAIN DRY LATER
TODAY. THERE REMAINS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY, SO THERE WILL REMAIN THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. AS WITH
YESTERDAY, WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT AND MINIMAL
SHEAR, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP, THEY COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, IN ADDITION TO HEAVY
RAIN AS PW VALUES REMAIN 1.5-1.75 INCHES. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SMALL HAIL IF THERE ARE ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. AGAIN, THE BEST FAVORED AREAS ARE THE WESTERN HALF/TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA IN THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA.

ALMOST SEEMS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD; THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE
THIS IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING, SHOWER CHANCES
DROP OFF OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

CONTINUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN
OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED
ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. THE DISTURBANCE
THAT CREATED THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING, AND
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO VFR AS DAYTIME
MIXING TAKES PLACE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY, SO
THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING WAS LOW, SO
THEY WERE KEPT OUT FOR NOW. WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
EAST 5-10 KNOTS.

WE EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS MOISTURE POOLS AT THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION.
IN FACT, CIGS MAY END UP LOWERING TO IFR FOR MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 220756
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
356 AM EDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A HIGH CENTERED OVER EASTERN CANADA NOW, WILL SLOWLY BUILD SOUTH
APPROACHING THE REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL REMAIN THE
DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE FOR OUR REGION THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. A
COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSHOWERS ARE PUSHING
SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING. THEY HAVE BEEN REDEVELOPING
ALONG A THETA-E AND INSTABILITY DIFFERENTIAL LINE AS THE SHORT
WAVE/VORT MAX ALOFT MOVES INTO THE AREA. THE SHORT WAVE IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK, SO THIS
SHOWER/THUNDER SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH DAYBREAK, BUT
BEGIN TO DIMINISH AND MOVE OFFSHORE BY THAT TIME. ONCE THIS ACTIVITY
WANES, WE SHOULD GET A BREAK IN THE MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS FOR MUCH
OF THE MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, WE EXPECT MORE
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO THE AREA LATER TODAY AS ANOTHER
SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSE MOVES INTO THE AREA IN THE NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT. THE BEST CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOR THE
WESTERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE AREA, WHILE THE COAST MAY REMAIN DRY LATER
TODAY. THERE REMAINS SOME WEAK INSTABILITY, SO THERE WILL REMAIN THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL. AS WITH
YESTERDAY, WITH THE LACK OF A STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT AND MINIMAL
SHEAR, WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY SEVERE WEATHER. IF ANY THUNDERSTORMS DO
DEVELOP, THEY COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS, IN ADDITION TO HEAVY
RAIN AS PW VALUES REMAIN 1.5-1.75 INCHES. ALSO CANNOT RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY FOR SMALL HAIL IF THERE ARE ANY THUNDERSTORMS AS WELL.

FOR HIGHS, USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THERE WILL REMAIN THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INTO TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE EVENING AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORT MAX MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. AGAIN, THE BEST FAVORED AREAS ARE THE WESTERN HALF/TWO THIRDS
OF THE AREA IN THE EARLY PART OF THE NIGHT. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT AS THE SHORT WAVE CROSSES THE AREA.

ALMOST SEEMS LIKE A BROKEN RECORD; THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS/THUNDERSHOWERS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY EVENING
AS ANOTHER SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY MAX PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA. ONCE
THIS IMPULSE SLIDES ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY EVENING, SHOWER CHANCES
DROP OFF OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BEGIN PUSHING INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTHEAST.

CONTINUED A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND ECMWF 2M TEMPS FOR
HIGHS AND LOWS TONIGHT-SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO SETTLE IN
OVER THE REGION FROM THE NORTH. WEAK ON SHORE FLOW THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY WILL HELP TO KEEP HIGHS BETWEEN 5 AND 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY. BY WEDNESDAY...THE HIGH WILL HAVE SHIFTED
ENOUGH OFF SHORE TO LEAVE THE REGION UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW
BRINGING TEMPERATURES ONCE AGAIN NEAR NORMAL. BUT IT DOESN`T LOOK
LIKE THE WARM WEATHER WILL BE AROUND FOR VERY LONG.

THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS HAVE SLOWED THE TIMING OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY AS COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS, WITH IT NOW
FORECAST TO ARRIVE LATE THURSDAY OR EARLY FRIDAY. THUS...THURSDAY
SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE NEAR NORMAL. THE FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
PROMISING CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION, AS WELL AS
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MVFR AND EVEN IFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES
THIS MORNING AS AN AREA OF SHOWERS MOVE THROUGH. THE DISTURBANCE
THAT CREATED THESE SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER THIS MORNING, AND
SHOWERS SHOULD DISSIPATE AND MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AROUND OR SHORTLY
AFTER DAYBREAK. MVFR CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS, BEFORE LIFTING BACK TO VFR AS DAYTIME
MIXING TAKES PLACE. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE TODAY, SO
THEY WERE INCLUDED IN THE TAFS. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS, BUT CONFIDENCE IN OCCURRENCE AND TIMING WAS LOW, SO
THEY WERE KEPT OUT FOR NOW. WINDS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE OUT OF THE
EAST 5-10 KNOTS.

WE EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN LATER THIS EVENING
ACROSS THE TAF SITES AS MOISTURE POOLS AT THE LOW-LEVEL INVERSION.
IN FACT, CIGS MAY END UP LOWERING TO IFR FOR MANY AREAS OVERNIGHT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN EASTERLY 5-10 KNOTS.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CIGS EARLY...BECOMING VFR. SCATTERED SHOWERS
POSSIBLE.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY...MOSTLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, SEAS MAY BEGIN TO APPROACH 4 FEET AND WINDS MAY
BEGIN TO GUST AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT AS EARLY FLOW INCREASES AS
HIGH PRESSURE APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY-SATURDAY NIGHT...CONDITIONS MAY APPROACH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY LEVELS AS EASTERLY FLOW INCREASES AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
IN FROM THE NORTH.

SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON






000
FXUS61 KPHI 220140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM THE LEHIGH VALLEY UP INTO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONTINUING TO
REGENERATE ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARIES AND THE DISSIPATION PROCESS
SHOULD BE RATHER SLOW FROM THIS POINT ONWARD, ESPECIALLY WITH A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE
WILL FORECAST CATEGORICAL OR LIKELY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN WE WILL LOWER THE
PROBABILITIES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD.

THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND NORTHERN
DELAWARE SHOULD BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE, AS WELL. THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NIGHT AND THE AREA MAY
EXPAND A BIT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE THE MENTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES
INTEREST IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE
PLAYED THE SHOWER AND TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE
330 AM THURSDAY FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE
12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY
IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU
NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO
MID 70S NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU
NEXT WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR
NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING FROM AROUND KABE AND KTTN NORTHWARD.
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SPOTS COULD FALL TO IFR
DEPENDING UPON THE EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

THE WIND SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER
CONDITIONS.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE
MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR
MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM THE LEHIGH VALLEY UP INTO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONTINUING TO
REGENERATE ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARIES AND THE DISSIPATION PROCESS
SHOULD BE RATHER SLOW FROM THIS POINT ONWARD, ESPECIALLY WITH A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE
WILL FORECAST CATEGORICAL OR LIKELY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN WE WILL LOWER THE
PROBABILITIES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD.

THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND NORTHERN
DELAWARE SHOULD BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE, AS WELL. THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NIGHT AND THE AREA MAY
EXPAND A BIT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE THE MENTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES
INTEREST IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE
PLAYED THE SHOWER AND TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE
330 AM THURSDAY FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE
12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY
IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU
NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO
MID 70S NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU
NEXT WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR
NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING FROM AROUND KABE AND KTTN NORTHWARD.
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SPOTS COULD FALL TO IFR
DEPENDING UPON THE EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

THE WIND SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER
CONDITIONS.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE
MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR
MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM THE LEHIGH VALLEY UP INTO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONTINUING TO
REGENERATE ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARIES AND THE DISSIPATION PROCESS
SHOULD BE RATHER SLOW FROM THIS POINT ONWARD, ESPECIALLY WITH A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE
WILL FORECAST CATEGORICAL OR LIKELY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN WE WILL LOWER THE
PROBABILITIES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD.

THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND NORTHERN
DELAWARE SHOULD BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE, AS WELL. THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NIGHT AND THE AREA MAY
EXPAND A BIT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE THE MENTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES
INTEREST IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE
PLAYED THE SHOWER AND TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE
330 AM THURSDAY FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE
12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY
IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU
NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO
MID 70S NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU
NEXT WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR
NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING FROM AROUND KABE AND KTTN NORTHWARD.
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SPOTS COULD FALL TO IFR
DEPENDING UPON THE EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

THE WIND SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER
CONDITIONS.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE
MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR
MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
940 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
CONVECTION EXTENDED FROM THE LEHIGH VALLEY UP INTO NORTHERN NEW
JERSEY. THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE CONTINUING TO
REGENERATE ALONG REMNANT BOUNDARIES AND THE DISSIPATION PROCESS
SHOULD BE RATHER SLOW FROM THIS POINT ONWARD, ESPECIALLY WITH A
MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. WE
WILL FORECAST CATEGORICAL OR LIKELY PRECIPITATION FOR OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES UNTIL AROUND MIDNIGHT, THEN WE WILL LOWER THE
PROBABILITIES INTO THE CHANCE CATEGORY FOR THE LATE NIGHT PERIOD.

THE SCATTERED SHOWERS AROUND UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY AND NORTHERN
DELAWARE SHOULD BE SLOW TO DISSIPATE, AS WELL. THE SHOWERS ARE
EXPECTED TO DRIFT EASTWARD DURING THE NIGHT AND THE AREA MAY
EXPAND A BIT. AS A RESULT, WE HAVE THE MENTION OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS FOR OUR CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES
INTEREST IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE
PLAYED THE SHOWER AND TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE
330 AM THURSDAY FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE
12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY
IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU
NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO
MID 70S NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU
NEXT WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR
NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING FROM AROUND KABE AND KTTN NORTHWARD.
PREVAILING CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE
FOR LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SPOTS COULD FALL TO IFR
DEPENDING UPON THE EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG
WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

THE WIND SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER
CONDITIONS.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE
MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR
MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA







000
FXUS61 KPHI 220012
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
812 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STABLE AIR WAS CONTINUING TO ADVECT OFF THE OCEAN THIS EVENING.
DEW POINT READINGS WERE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
IN MUCH OF NEW JERSEY. MEANWHILE, CONDITIONS REMAINED UNSTABLE ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE DURING THE
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE EVENING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST BASED ON THE
RADAR TRENDS TO INCLUDE AREAS FROM BERKS COUNTY AND UPPER
MONTGOMERY COUNTY DOWN TO THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE
BAY.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD AND IT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT, EVEN AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS WEAKEN.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES
INTEREST IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE
PLAYED THE SHOWER AND TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE
330 AM THURSDAY FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE
12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY
IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU
NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO
MID 70S NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU
NEXT WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR
NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH OF KABE
AND KTTN AND TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF KPHL AND KILG, INCLUDING
THE KRDG AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 0600Z
EXCEPT THEY MAY LOWER TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SPOTS COULD FALL TO IFR DEPENDING UPON THE
EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

THE WIND SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER
CONDITIONS.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE
MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR
MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG






000
FXUS61 KPHI 220012
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
812 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STABLE AIR WAS CONTINUING TO ADVECT OFF THE OCEAN THIS EVENING.
DEW POINT READINGS WERE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND LOWER 60S
IN MUCH OF NEW JERSEY. MEANWHILE, CONDITIONS REMAINED UNSTABLE ON
THE WESTERN SIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE DURING THE
EVENING WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE CONTINUED ONSHORE
FLOW.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE EVENING THUNDERSTORM FORECAST BASED ON THE
RADAR TRENDS TO INCLUDE AREAS FROM BERKS COUNTY AND UPPER
MONTGOMERY COUNTY DOWN TO THE UPPER EASTERN SHORE OF CHESAPEAKE
BAY.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD AND IT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT, EVEN AFTER THE THUNDERSTORMS WEAKEN.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES
INTEREST IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE
PLAYED THE SHOWER AND TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE
330 AM THURSDAY FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE
12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY
IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU
NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO
MID 70S NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU
NEXT WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR
NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH OF KABE
AND KTTN AND TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF KPHL AND KILG, INCLUDING
THE KRDG AREA. CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 0600Z
EXCEPT THEY MAY LOWER TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SPOTS COULD FALL TO IFR DEPENDING UPON THE
EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

THE WIND SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER
CONDITIONS.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE
MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR
MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 212245
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
645 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STABLE AIR WAS CONTINUING TO ADVECT OFF THE OCEAN EARLY THIS
EVENING. DEW POINT READINGS WERE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S IN NEW JERSEY. MEANWHILE, CONDITIONS REMAINED UNSTABLE
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE DURING THE
EVENING WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE
THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ALL BUT TWO AREAS.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
THERE, AS WELL. ALSO, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EVENING THUNDERSTORM
FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AS SOME OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY MAY SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THAT AREA.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD AND IT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES
INTEREST IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE
PLAYED THE SHOWER AND TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE
330 AM THURSDAY FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE
12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY
IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU
NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO
MID 70S NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU
NEXT WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR
NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH OF KABE
AND KTTN AND TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF KPHL AND KILG.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 0400Z EXCEPT THEY MAY
LOWER TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SPOTS COULD FALL TO IFR DEPENDING UPON THE
EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

THE WIND SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER
CONDITIONS.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE
MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR
MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 212245
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
645 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STABLE AIR WAS CONTINUING TO ADVECT OFF THE OCEAN EARLY THIS
EVENING. DEW POINT READINGS WERE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S IN NEW JERSEY. MEANWHILE, CONDITIONS REMAINED UNSTABLE
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE DURING THE
EVENING WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE
THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ALL BUT TWO AREAS.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
THERE, AS WELL. ALSO, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EVENING THUNDERSTORM
FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AS SOME OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY MAY SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THAT AREA.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD AND IT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES
INTEREST IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE
PLAYED THE SHOWER AND TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE
330 AM THURSDAY FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE
12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY
IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU
NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO
MID 70S NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU
NEXT WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR
NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH OF KABE
AND KTTN AND TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF KPHL AND KILG.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 0400Z EXCEPT THEY MAY
LOWER TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SPOTS COULD FALL TO IFR DEPENDING UPON THE
EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

THE WIND SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER
CONDITIONS.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE
MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR
MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 212245
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
645 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STABLE AIR WAS CONTINUING TO ADVECT OFF THE OCEAN EARLY THIS
EVENING. DEW POINT READINGS WERE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S IN NEW JERSEY. MEANWHILE, CONDITIONS REMAINED UNSTABLE
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE DURING THE
EVENING WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE
THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ALL BUT TWO AREAS.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
THERE, AS WELL. ALSO, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EVENING THUNDERSTORM
FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AS SOME OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY MAY SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THAT AREA.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD AND IT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES
INTEREST IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE
PLAYED THE SHOWER AND TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE
330 AM THURSDAY FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE
12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY
IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU
NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO
MID 70S NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU
NEXT WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR
NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH OF KABE
AND KTTN AND TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF KPHL AND KILG.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 0400Z EXCEPT THEY MAY
LOWER TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SPOTS COULD FALL TO IFR DEPENDING UPON THE
EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

THE WIND SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER
CONDITIONS.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE
MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR
MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 212245
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
645 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
STABLE AIR WAS CONTINUING TO ADVECT OFF THE OCEAN EARLY THIS
EVENING. DEW POINT READINGS WERE DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 50S AND
LOWER 60S IN NEW JERSEY. MEANWHILE, CONDITIONS REMAINED UNSTABLE
ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME INCREASINGLY STABLE DURING THE
EVENING WITH THE GRADUAL LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING AND THE
CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW. WE HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST TO REMOVE
THE THUNDERSTORMS FROM ALL BUT TWO AREAS.

WE WILL KEEP THE MENTION OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES FOR THIS EVENING TO ACCOUNT FOR
THE CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND INTO
NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. THERE MAY BE SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL
THERE, AS WELL. ALSO, WE WILL MAINTAIN THE EVENING THUNDERSTORM
FORECAST WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN NORTHEASTERN
MARYLAND AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN DELAWARE AS SOME OF THE
CONVECTION IN THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA RIVER VALLEY MAY SLIDE
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THAT AREA.

A MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE THAT WAS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES REGION EARLY THIS EVENING SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROGRESS
SOUTHEASTWARD AND IT IS ANTICIPATED TO PASS OVERHEAD LATE TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT, WE WILL MAINTAIN SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT OUR
FORECAST AREA FOR TONIGHT.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 60S OVERNIGHT WITH A
LIGHT SOUTH TO EAST WIND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES
INTEREST IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR
SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE
PLAYED THE SHOWER AND TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE
330 AM THURSDAY FCST POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE
12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK
UPPER LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A
FEW TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY
ACROSS THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY
IN THE CHC RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU
NIGHT WITH THE HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU
NIGHT WILL MOSTLY BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER
60S ELSEWHERE. HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO
MID 70S NORTH. DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE
A PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU
NEXT WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR
NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP
TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TONIGHT. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THIS EVENING TO THE NORTH OF KABE
AND KTTN AND TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST OF KPHL AND KILG.
CONDITIONS SHOULD BE GENERALLY VFR THROUGH 0400Z EXCEPT THEY MAY
LOWER TO MVFR IN RAIN SHOWERS.

MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. SOME SPOTS COULD FALL TO IFR DEPENDING UPON THE
EXTENT OF ANY STRATUS AND FOG DEVELOPMENT ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL
SHOWER ACTIVITY. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND THERE IS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AT THAT TIME.

THE WIND SHOULD BACK FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TO THE EAST
DURING THE TAF PERIOD. SPEEDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MAINLY LESS THAN
10 KNOTS

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER
CONDITIONS.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
SEAS 3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS
BECOMING EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE
MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR
MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...IOVINO
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...IOVINO/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...DRAG







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211932
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
332 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
(G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE
00Z/21 NSSL WRF IN WEAK WAA AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA
WHERE SBLI AT 18Z NEAR -7. EXPLAINING THE AXIS OF THE ONGOING
STORMS AT 1830Z...I CANNOT EASILY DO. IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND
PROXIMITY TO THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED IN OUR CWA MORE TO
THE NORTH RATHER THAN TO THE SOUTH. PWAT NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE
1200J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE SREF AND GEFS POPS ARE 20-30
PCT HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE ISSUING AT 330 PM.

AS NOTED EARLIER: THE 12Z NAM CONTG A THEME OF 2 INCH IN ONE HOUR
TSTMS SOMEWHERE IN E CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL NJ THIS EVENING. VIL
NEAR 60 AT 1845Z CENTRAL PA IS EITHER VERIFYING THAT RAIN OR
SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL.

WHILE THE PLACEMENT OF THE NAM SHORT TERM QPF IS POSSIBLY WRONG...THE
IDEA I THINK IS CORRECT. A PTN OF E CENTRAL OR NE PA IN N OR CENTRAL
NJ SHOULD RECEIVE SOME STRONG TSTORMS VERY LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING.

OTRW CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS DELMARVA AS BLOWOFF CLOUD DEBRIS FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY CONVECTION SPREADS EWD.


AFTER MIDNIGHT...NORMALLY ANY EVENING CONVECTION DIMINISHES BUT
THE ECMWF TRIES TO INCREASE RFALL AFTER 06Z WITH THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING SEWD FROM NYS. JUST VERY UNSURE OF WHAT EXISTS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI CONVECTIVE
RELATED PRODUCTS ISSUED THIS EVENING.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED THE SHOWER AND
TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE 330 AM THURSDAY FCST
POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE 12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK UPPER
LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY ACROSS
THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY IN THE CHC
RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU NIGHT WITH THE
HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO MID 70S NORTH.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU NEXT
WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER THIS AFTERNOON...SPOTTY MVFR CIGS IN E PA SHOULD LIFT
THE VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT ELSEWHERE WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW. LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE THIS
AFTN...MAINLY VCNTY KRDG AND KABE. A NW WIND GUST TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH A LATE AFTN TSTM.

TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING WITH NW WIND G25-35 KT
AND BRIEF IFR CONDS...MAINLY IN THE 23Z-03Z TIME FRAME THOUGH
SHOWERS MAY LINGER LATE AT NIGHT VCNTY KACY. OTRW VFR CIGS MAY
DEGRADE TO MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG TOWARD 09Z. CONFIDENCE ON
DEGRADED CIGS/VSBY LATE AT NIGHT IS BELOW AVG.

FRIDAY...CIGS 2500-4000 FT WITH LOWER IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND THE WIND TURNING LIGHT EASTERLY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER CONDITIONS.
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM
THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY
TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211932
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
332 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK LOW PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT AND THEN MOVE OFF THE COAST SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND REMAIN IN CONTROL OF THE
WEATHER INTO NEXT WEEK. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA NEXT
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
(G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE
00Z/21 NSSL WRF IN WEAK WAA AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA
WHERE SBLI AT 18Z NEAR -7. EXPLAINING THE AXIS OF THE ONGOING
STORMS AT 1830Z...I CANNOT EASILY DO. IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND
PROXIMITY TO THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED IN OUR CWA MORE TO
THE NORTH RATHER THAN TO THE SOUTH. PWAT NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE
1200J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE SREF AND GEFS POPS ARE 20-30
PCT HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE ISSUING AT 330 PM.

AS NOTED EARLIER: THE 12Z NAM CONTG A THEME OF 2 INCH IN ONE HOUR
TSTMS SOMEWHERE IN E CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL NJ THIS EVENING. VIL
NEAR 60 AT 1845Z CENTRAL PA IS EITHER VERIFYING THAT RAIN OR
SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL.

WHILE THE PLACEMENT OF THE NAM SHORT TERM QPF IS POSSIBLY WRONG...THE
IDEA I THINK IS CORRECT. A PTN OF E CENTRAL OR NE PA IN N OR CENTRAL
NJ SHOULD RECEIVE SOME STRONG TSTORMS VERY LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING.

OTRW CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS DELMARVA AS BLOWOFF CLOUD DEBRIS FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY CONVECTION SPREADS EWD.


AFTER MIDNIGHT...NORMALLY ANY EVENING CONVECTION DIMINISHES BUT
THE ECMWF TRIES TO INCREASE RFALL AFTER 06Z WITH THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING SEWD FROM NYS. JUST VERY UNSURE OF WHAT EXISTS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI CONVECTIVE
RELATED PRODUCTS ISSUED THIS EVENING.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED THE SHOWER AND
TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE 330 AM THURSDAY FCST
POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE 12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE WEAK UPPER
LOW AND SFC LOW THU NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY. SCT SHOWERS AND A FEW
TSTMS WILL BE ACROSS MOST AREAS THU EVENING AND THEN DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT...A COUPLE LEFTOVER SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP SAT MOSTLY ACROSS
THE DELMARVA...SE PA AND SRN NJ. CHC FOR SHOWERS ARE ONLY IN THE CHC
RANGE HOWEVER. A FEW DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE THU NIGHT WITH THE
HIGHER PWATS STILL ACROSS THE SRN AREAS. LOWS THU NIGHT WILL MOSTLY
BE IN THE LOW 60S ACROSS THE NORTH AND MID/UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.
HIGHS SAT IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S SOUTH AND LOW TO MID 70S NORTH.
DRIER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH IN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH SAT.

AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS UP TO THE WEST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND AND
THEN ROTATES ACROSS THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL
MOVE SLOWLY IN TANDEM WITH THE UPPER HIGH. THIS WILL PRODUCE A
PERIOD OF DRY WEATHER FOR OUR REGION. POPS FOR SAT NIGHT THRU NEXT
WEN NIGHT ARE SUB-15PCT RANGE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL SUN/MON...NEAR NORMAL TUE...AND THEN A
BIT ABOVE NORMAL WED/THU. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE COMFORTABLE
THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD...BUT WILL TREND UP TOWARD THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER THIS AFTERNOON...SPOTTY MVFR CIGS IN E PA SHOULD LIFT
THE VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT ELSEWHERE WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW. LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE THIS
AFTN...MAINLY VCNTY KRDG AND KABE. A NW WIND GUST TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH A LATE AFTN TSTM.

TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING WITH NW WIND G25-35 KT
AND BRIEF IFR CONDS...MAINLY IN THE 23Z-03Z TIME FRAME THOUGH
SHOWERS MAY LINGER LATE AT NIGHT VCNTY KACY. OTRW VFR CIGS MAY
DEGRADE TO MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG TOWARD 09Z. CONFIDENCE ON
DEGRADED CIGS/VSBY LATE AT NIGHT IS BELOW AVG.

FRIDAY...CIGS 2500-4000 FT WITH LOWER IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND THE WIND TURNING LIGHT EASTERLY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THRU SAT...MOSTLY VFR BUT SCT SHOWERS MAY BRING LOWER CONDITIONS.
SAT NIGHT THRU TUESDAY...VFR EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM
THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY
TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
THU NIGHT THRU FRI NIGHT...SUB SCA CONDITIONS WITH SCT SHOWERS.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...LOW END SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED ON THE OCEAN.
FAIR WEATHER.

SUN THRU TUE...SUB-SCA CONDITIONS WITH FAIR WEATHER.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...O`HARA
NEAR TERM...DRAG
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...O`HARA
AVIATION...DRAG/O`HARA
MARINE...DRAG/O`HARA
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 211858
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
258 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO VIRGINIA PRODUCES OCCASIONALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
(G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE
00Z/21 NSSL WRF IN WEAK WAA AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA
WHERE SBLI AT 18Z NEAR -7. EXPLAINING THE AXIS OF THE ONGOING
STORMS AT 1830Z...I CANNOT EASILY DO. IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND
PROXIMITY TO THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED IN OUR CWA MORE TO
THE NORTH RATHER THAN TO THE SOUTH. PWAT NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE
1200J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE SREF AND GEFS POPS ARE 20-30
PCT HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE ISSUING AT 330 PM.

AS NOTED EARLIER: THE 12Z NAM CONTG A THEME OF 2 INCH IN ONE HOUR
TSTMS SOMEWHERE IN E CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL NJ THIS EVENING. VIL
NEAR 60 AT 1845Z CENTRAL PA IS EITHER VERIFYING THAT RAIN OR
SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL.

WHILE THE PLACEMENT OF THE NAM SHORT TERM QPF IS POSSIBLY WRONG...THE
IDEA I THINK IS CORRECT. A PTN OF E CENTRAL OR NE PA IN N OR CENTRAL
NJ SHOULD RECEIVE SOME STRONG TSTORMS VERY LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING.

OTRW CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS DELMARVA AS BLOWOFF CLOUD DEBRIS FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY CONVECTION SPREADS EWD.


AFTER MIDNIGHT...NORMALLY ANY EVENING CONVECTION DIMINISHES BUT
THE ECMWF TRIES TO INCREASE RFALL AFTER 06Z WITH THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING SEWD FROM NYS. JUST VERY UNSURE OF WHAT EXISTS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI CONVECTIVE
RELATED PRODUCTS ISSUED THIS EVENING.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED THE SHOWER AND
TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE 330 AM THURSDAY FCST
POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE 12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE STOUT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE OTHER HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION, COULD SEE HIGHS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY
HOWEVER, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE, LEAVING THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST ON THE
HEALS OF THE HIGH. STILL, BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW THESE FEATURES JUST
BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER THIS AFTERNOON...SPOTTY MVFR CIGS IN E PA SHOULD LIFT
THE VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT ELSEWHERE WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW. LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE THIS
AFTN...MAINLY VCNTY KRDG AND KABE. A NW WIND GUST TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH A LATE AFTN TSTM.

TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING WITH NW WIND G25-35 KT
AND BRIEF IFR CONDS...MAINLY IN THE 23Z-03Z TIME FRAME THOUGH
SHOWERS MAY LINGER LATE AT NIGHT VCNTY KACY. OTRW VFR CIGS MAY
DEGRADE TO MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG TOWARD 09Z. CONFIDENCE ON
DEGRADED CIGS/VSBY LATE AT NIGHT IS BELOW AVG.

FRIDAY...CIGS 2500-4000 FT WITH LOWER IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND THE WIND TURNING LIGHT EASTERLY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER ANY TSRA MVFR CEILINGS AND
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM
THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY
TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA NE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT ON THE
ATLC WATERS.

SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  257
SHORT TERM...DRAG 257
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 257
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON 257
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 211858
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
258 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO VIRGINIA PRODUCES OCCASIONALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS
(G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE
00Z/21 NSSL WRF IN WEAK WAA AHEAD OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA
WHERE SBLI AT 18Z NEAR -7. EXPLAINING THE AXIS OF THE ONGOING
STORMS AT 1830Z...I CANNOT EASILY DO. IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND
PROXIMITY TO THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED IN OUR CWA MORE TO
THE NORTH RATHER THAN TO THE SOUTH. PWAT NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE
1200J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR. THE SREF AND GEFS POPS ARE 20-30
PCT HIGHER THAN WHAT WE ARE ISSUING AT 330 PM.

AS NOTED EARLIER: THE 12Z NAM CONTG A THEME OF 2 INCH IN ONE HOUR
TSTMS SOMEWHERE IN E CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL NJ THIS EVENING. VIL
NEAR 60 AT 1845Z CENTRAL PA IS EITHER VERIFYING THAT RAIN OR
SUGGESTING LARGE HAIL.

WHILE THE PLACEMENT OF THE NAM SHORT TERM QPF IS POSSIBLY WRONG...THE
IDEA I THINK IS CORRECT. A PTN OF E CENTRAL OR NE PA IN N OR CENTRAL
NJ SHOULD RECEIVE SOME STRONG TSTORMS VERY LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING.

OTRW CONSIDERABLE HIGH CLOUDINESS DELMARVA AS BLOWOFF CLOUD DEBRIS FROM
THE OHIO VALLEY CONVECTION SPREADS EWD.


AFTER MIDNIGHT...NORMALLY ANY EVENING CONVECTION DIMINISHES BUT
THE ECMWF TRIES TO INCREASE RFALL AFTER 06Z WITH THE SHORT WAVE
MOVING SEWD FROM NYS. JUST VERY UNSURE OF WHAT EXISTS AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI CONVECTIVE
RELATED PRODUCTS ISSUED THIS EVENING.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA. FOR NOW HAVE PLAYED THE SHOWER AND
TSTM RISK CONSERVATIVELY AND MAINTAINED THE 330 AM THURSDAY FCST
POPS FOR FRIDAY...ABOUT 10 PCT BELOW THE 12Z/21 GFS/NAM MOS BLEND.

IT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE EASTERLY AS THE
SFC LOW CONSOLIDATES TO THE S OF THE DELMARVA.

FCST BASIS: TEMPS/DEWS/WINDS ARE A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 12Z/21
GFS/NAM MOS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE STOUT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE OTHER HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION, COULD SEE HIGHS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY
HOWEVER, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE, LEAVING THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST ON THE
HEALS OF THE HIGH. STILL, BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW THESE FEATURES JUST
BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

REMAINDER THIS AFTERNOON...SPOTTY MVFR CIGS IN E PA SHOULD LIFT
THE VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT ELSEWHERE WITH A LIGHT SOUTHERLY
FLOW. LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE THIS
AFTN...MAINLY VCNTY KRDG AND KABE. A NW WIND GUST TO 35 KT
POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH A LATE AFTN TSTM.

TONIGHT...SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS EVENING WITH NW WIND G25-35 KT
AND BRIEF IFR CONDS...MAINLY IN THE 23Z-03Z TIME FRAME THOUGH
SHOWERS MAY LINGER LATE AT NIGHT VCNTY KACY. OTRW VFR CIGS MAY
DEGRADE TO MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG TOWARD 09Z. CONFIDENCE ON
DEGRADED CIGS/VSBY LATE AT NIGHT IS BELOW AVG.

FRIDAY...CIGS 2500-4000 FT WITH LOWER IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND THE WIND TURNING LIGHT EASTERLY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER ANY TSRA MVFR CEILINGS AND
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM
THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY
TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA NE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT ON THE
ATLC WATERS.

SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  257
SHORT TERM...DRAG 257
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 257
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON 257
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211613
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1213 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO VIRGINIA PRODUCES OCCASIONALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1210 PM ESTF HAS REDUCED RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST COMPLETELY
THIS AFTERNOON. ENHANCED WORDING CONTINUES AND SLIGHTLY EXPANDED
IN E PA AND N 2/3RDS NJ IN PART DUE TO THE 12Z NAM/GFS AND PRIOR
ECMWF MASS FIELD PREDICTORS. THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER
THAN MODELED SFC DEWPOINTS IN SE PA N MD ALSO SUGGEST GREATER
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY FOR MID AFTN DEVELOPMENT.

12Z SOUNDING FROM IAD/WAL/APG AND OKX REVIEWED. MAX TEMPS 83-86.

UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL
HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS (G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW
NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE 00Z/21 NSSL WRF AN IN WEAK WAA AHEAD
OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA. THAT DOESN`T RULE OUT THE DELMARVA
BUT FOR SOME TIME NOW...IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY TO
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED NORTH RATHER THAN SOUTH. PWAT
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE 1200J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.

OTRW...A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. THERE IS STILL MUCH MORE LOW CLOUDINESS OVER
SE PA...NE MD AND N DE THIS MORNING THAN ANTICIPATED YDY. THIS
SHOULD START THINNING AND LIFTING BY NOON.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI PRODUCTS.

TONIGHT...A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE
STILL UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE.

NOTING THE 12Z NAM CONTG A THEME OF 2INCH HOURLY TSTMS SOMEWHERE
IN E CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL NJ THIS EVENING. WHILE THE PLACEMENT
IS POSSIBLY WRONG...THE IDEA I THINK IS CORRECT. A PTN OF E CENTRAL
OR NE PA IN N OR CENTRAL NJ SHOULD RECEIVE SOME STRONG TSTORMS
VERY LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE STOUT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE OTHER HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION, COULD SEE HIGHS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY
HOWEVER, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE, LEAVING THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST ON THE
HEALS OF THE HIGH. STILL, BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW THESE FEATURES JUST
BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS IN E PA NE MD AND N DE THROUGH 17 OR 18Z
LINGERLING LONGER THAN EXPECTED OTRW VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT THIS
AFTERNOON BUT LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND. BUT A NW WIND GUST TO 35 KT POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED
WITH A LATE AFTN TSTM NEAR AND N OF KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY DEGRADE TO MVFR CONDS IN FOG LATE. IFR
CONDS IN LEFTOVER EARLY NIGHT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY...CIGS 2500-4000 FT WITH LOWER IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND A WIND TURNING LIGHT EASTERLY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER ANY TSRA MVFR CEILINGS AND
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM
THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY
TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA NE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT ON THE
ATLC WATERS.

SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 213
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1213
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 1213
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 211613
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1213 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO VIRGINIA PRODUCES OCCASIONALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1210 PM ESTF HAS REDUCED RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST COMPLETELY
THIS AFTERNOON. ENHANCED WORDING CONTINUES AND SLIGHTLY EXPANDED
IN E PA AND N 2/3RDS NJ IN PART DUE TO THE 12Z NAM/GFS AND PRIOR
ECMWF MASS FIELD PREDICTORS. THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER
THAN MODELED SFC DEWPOINTS IN SE PA N MD ALSO SUGGEST GREATER
POTENTIAL INSTABILITY FOR MID AFTN DEVELOPMENT.

12Z SOUNDING FROM IAD/WAL/APG AND OKX REVIEWED. MAX TEMPS 83-86.

UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL
HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS (G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW
NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE 00Z/21 NSSL WRF AN IN WEAK WAA AHEAD
OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA. THAT DOESN`T RULE OUT THE DELMARVA
BUT FOR SOME TIME NOW...IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY TO
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED NORTH RATHER THAN SOUTH. PWAT
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE 1200J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.

OTRW...A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. THERE IS STILL MUCH MORE LOW CLOUDINESS OVER
SE PA...NE MD AND N DE THIS MORNING THAN ANTICIPATED YDY. THIS
SHOULD START THINNING AND LIFTING BY NOON.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI PRODUCTS.

TONIGHT...A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE
STILL UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE.

NOTING THE 12Z NAM CONTG A THEME OF 2INCH HOURLY TSTMS SOMEWHERE
IN E CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL NJ THIS EVENING. WHILE THE PLACEMENT
IS POSSIBLY WRONG...THE IDEA I THINK IS CORRECT. A PTN OF E CENTRAL
OR NE PA IN N OR CENTRAL NJ SHOULD RECEIVE SOME STRONG TSTORMS
VERY LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE STOUT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE OTHER HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION, COULD SEE HIGHS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY
HOWEVER, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE, LEAVING THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST ON THE
HEALS OF THE HIGH. STILL, BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW THESE FEATURES JUST
BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

THIS AFTERNOON...MVFR CIGS IN E PA NE MD AND N DE THROUGH 17 OR 18Z
LINGERLING LONGER THAN EXPECTED OTRW VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT THIS
AFTERNOON BUT LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND TSTMS LATE THIS AFTN.
LIGHT SOUTH WIND. BUT A NW WIND GUST TO 35 KT POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED
WITH A LATE AFTN TSTM NEAR AND N OF KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY DEGRADE TO MVFR CONDS IN FOG LATE. IFR
CONDS IN LEFTOVER EARLY NIGHT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY...CIGS 2500-4000 FT WITH LOWER IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND A WIND TURNING LIGHT EASTERLY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER ANY TSRA MVFR CEILINGS AND
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM
THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY
TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA NE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT ON THE
ATLC WATERS.

SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 213
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1213
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 1213
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211424
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1024 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO VIRGINIA PRODUCES OCCASIONALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1010AM ESTF HAS REDUCED RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST AND ENHANCED
THE WORDING IN NE PA AND NW NJ IN PART DUE TO THE 12Z NAM AND
PRIOR ECMWF MASS FIELD PREDICTORS. THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER
THAN MODELED SFC DEWPOINTS IN SE PA N MD ALSO SUGGEST GREATER POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY FOR MID AFTN DEVELOPMENT.

12Z SOUNDING FROM IAD/WAL/APG AND OKX REVIEWED. MAX TEMPS 83-86.

UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL
HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS (G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW
NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE 00Z/21 NSSL WRF AN IN WEAK WAA AHEAD
OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA. THAT DOESN`T RULE OUT THE DELMARVA
BUT FOR SOME TIME NOW...IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY TO
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED NORTH RATHER THAN SOUTH. PWAT
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE 400-600J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.

OTRW...A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. THERE IS STILL MUCH MORE LOW CLOUDINESS OVER
SE PA...NE MD AND N DE THIS MORNING THAN ANTICIPATED YDY. THIS
SHOULD START THINNING AND LIFTING BY NOON.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI PRODUCTS.

TONIGHT...A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE
STILL UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE.

NOTING THE 12Z NAM CONTG A THEME OF 2INCH HOURLY TSTMS SOMEWHERE
IN E CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL NJ THIS EVENING. WHILE THE PLACEMENT
IS POSSIBLY WRONG...THE IDEA I THINK IS CORRECT. A PTN OF E CENTRAL
OR NE PA IN N OR CENTRAL NJ SHOULD RECEIVE SOME STRONG TSTORMS
VERY LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE STOUT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE OTHER HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION, COULD SEE HIGHS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY
HOWEVER, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE, LEAVING THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST ON THE
HEALS OF THE HIGH. STILL, BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW THESE FEATURES JUST
BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN E PA NE MD AND N DE THROUGH 16Z OTRW
VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT THIS AFTERNOON BUT LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. BUT A NW WIND GUST
TO 35 KT POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AFTN TSTM NEAR AND N OF KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY DEGRADE TO MVFR CONDS IN FOG LATE. IFR
CONDS IN LEFTOVER EARLY NIGHT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY...CIGS 2500-4000 FT WITH LOWER IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND A WIND TURNING LIGHT EASTERLY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER ANY TSRA MVFR CEILINGS AND
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM
THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY
TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA NE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT ON THE
ATLC WATERS.

SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  1023
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1023
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 1023
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...







000
FXUS61 KPHI 211424
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1024 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO VIRGINIA PRODUCES OCCASIONALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1010AM ESTF HAS REDUCED RAIN CHANCES ALONG THE COAST AND ENHANCED
THE WORDING IN NE PA AND NW NJ IN PART DUE TO THE 12Z NAM AND
PRIOR ECMWF MASS FIELD PREDICTORS. THE EXTRA CLOUD COVER AND HIGHER
THAN MODELED SFC DEWPOINTS IN SE PA N MD ALSO SUGGEST GREATER POTENTIAL
INSTABILITY FOR MID AFTN DEVELOPMENT.

12Z SOUNDING FROM IAD/WAL/APG AND OKX REVIEWED. MAX TEMPS 83-86.

UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL
HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS (G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW
NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE 00Z/21 NSSL WRF AN IN WEAK WAA AHEAD
OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA. THAT DOESN`T RULE OUT THE DELMARVA
BUT FOR SOME TIME NOW...IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY TO
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED NORTH RATHER THAN SOUTH. PWAT
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE 400-600J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.

OTRW...A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. THERE IS STILL MUCH MORE LOW CLOUDINESS OVER
SE PA...NE MD AND N DE THIS MORNING THAN ANTICIPATED YDY. THIS
SHOULD START THINNING AND LIFTING BY NOON.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI PRODUCTS.

TONIGHT...A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE
STILL UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE.

NOTING THE 12Z NAM CONTG A THEME OF 2INCH HOURLY TSTMS SOMEWHERE
IN E CENTRAL PA INTO CENTRAL NJ THIS EVENING. WHILE THE PLACEMENT
IS POSSIBLY WRONG...THE IDEA I THINK IS CORRECT. A PTN OF E CENTRAL
OR NE PA IN N OR CENTRAL NJ SHOULD RECEIVE SOME STRONG TSTORMS
VERY LATE THIS AFTN OR EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE STOUT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE OTHER HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION, COULD SEE HIGHS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY
HOWEVER, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE, LEAVING THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST ON THE
HEALS OF THE HIGH. STILL, BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW THESE FEATURES JUST
BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN E PA NE MD AND N DE THROUGH 16Z OTRW
VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT THIS AFTERNOON BUT LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT
SHOWERS AND TSTMS THIS AFTN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. BUT A NW WIND GUST
TO 35 KT POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AFTN TSTM NEAR AND N OF KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY DEGRADE TO MVFR CONDS IN FOG LATE. IFR
CONDS IN LEFTOVER EARLY NIGHT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY...CIGS 2500-4000 FT WITH LOWER IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS AND
TSTMS AND A WIND TURNING LIGHT EASTERLY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER ANY TSRA MVFR CEILINGS AND
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS THIS WEEK FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY
USE (INTERNET AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM
THIS HAS BEEN DERIVED FOR THE MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY
TO THE NWS FOR USE IN OUR MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA NE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT ON THE
ATLC WATERS.

SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG  1023
SHORT TERM...DRAG 1023
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON 1023
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON
CLIMATE...






000
FXUS61 KPHI 211342
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
942 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO VIRGINIA PRODUCES OCCASIONALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930AM ESTF NO CHANGE FROM THE 820AM UPDATED ESTF. WE WILL RERVIEW
WITH NEW GUIDANCE AND MAY ISSUE UPDATED WORDING ENHANCEMENTS SOMETIME
BETWEEN 1030AM AND 1230PM.

12Z SOUNDING FROM IAD/WAL/APG AND OKX REVIEWED. MAX TEMPS 83-86.

UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL
HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS (G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW
NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE 00Z/21 NSSL WRF AN IN WEAK WAA AHEAD
OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA. THAT DOESN`T RULE OUT THE DELMARVA
BUT FOR SOME TIME NOW...IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY TO
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED NORTH RATHER THAN SOUTH. PWAT
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE 400-600J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.

OTRW...A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. THERE IS MUCH MORE LOW CLOUDINESS OVER SE
PA...NE MD AND N DE THIS MORNING THAN ANTICIPATED YDY.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI PRODUCTS.

TONIGHT...A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE
STILL UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE STOUT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE OTHER HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION, COULD SEE HIGHS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY
HOWEVER, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE, LEAVING THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST ON THE
HEALS OF THE HIGH. STILL, BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW THESE FEATURES JUST
BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN SE PA NE MD AND N DE THROUGH 15Z
OTRW VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT BUT LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...MAINLY THIS AFTN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. BUT A WIND GUST TO
35 KT POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AFTN TSTM NEAR AND N OF KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY DEGRADE TO MVFR CONDS IN FOG LATE. IFR
CONDS IN LEFTOVER EARLY NIGHT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY...

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER ANY TSRA MVFR CEILINGS AND
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY USE (INTERNET
AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS
BEEN DERIVED FOR THE MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE
NWS FOR USE IN OUR MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA NE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT ON THE
ATLC WATERS.

SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 942
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON 942
CLIMATE...942






000
FXUS61 KPHI 211342
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
942 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO VIRGINIA PRODUCES OCCASIONALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930AM ESTF NO CHANGE FROM THE 820AM UPDATED ESTF. WE WILL RERVIEW
WITH NEW GUIDANCE AND MAY ISSUE UPDATED WORDING ENHANCEMENTS SOMETIME
BETWEEN 1030AM AND 1230PM.

12Z SOUNDING FROM IAD/WAL/APG AND OKX REVIEWED. MAX TEMPS 83-86.

UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL
HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS (G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW
NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE 00Z/21 NSSL WRF AN IN WEAK WAA AHEAD
OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA. THAT DOESN`T RULE OUT THE DELMARVA
BUT FOR SOME TIME NOW...IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY TO
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED NORTH RATHER THAN SOUTH. PWAT
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE 400-600J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.

OTRW...A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. THERE IS MUCH MORE LOW CLOUDINESS OVER SE
PA...NE MD AND N DE THIS MORNING THAN ANTICIPATED YDY.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI PRODUCTS.

TONIGHT...A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE
STILL UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE STOUT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE OTHER HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION, COULD SEE HIGHS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY
HOWEVER, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE, LEAVING THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST ON THE
HEALS OF THE HIGH. STILL, BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW THESE FEATURES JUST
BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN SE PA NE MD AND N DE THROUGH 15Z
OTRW VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT BUT LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...MAINLY THIS AFTN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. BUT A WIND GUST TO
35 KT POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AFTN TSTM NEAR AND N OF KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY DEGRADE TO MVFR CONDS IN FOG LATE. IFR
CONDS IN LEFTOVER EARLY NIGHT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY...

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER ANY TSRA MVFR CEILINGS AND
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY USE (INTERNET
AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS
BEEN DERIVED FOR THE MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE
NWS FOR USE IN OUR MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA NE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT ON THE
ATLC WATERS.

SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 942
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON 942
CLIMATE...942






000
FXUS61 KPHI 211342
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
942 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO VIRGINIA PRODUCES OCCASIONALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930AM ESTF NO CHANGE FROM THE 820AM UPDATED ESTF. WE WILL RERVIEW
WITH NEW GUIDANCE AND MAY ISSUE UPDATED WORDING ENHANCEMENTS SOMETIME
BETWEEN 1030AM AND 1230PM.

12Z SOUNDING FROM IAD/WAL/APG AND OKX REVIEWED. MAX TEMPS 83-86.

UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL
HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS (G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW
NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE 00Z/21 NSSL WRF AN IN WEAK WAA AHEAD
OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA. THAT DOESN`T RULE OUT THE DELMARVA
BUT FOR SOME TIME NOW...IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY TO
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED NORTH RATHER THAN SOUTH. PWAT
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE 400-600J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.

OTRW...A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. THERE IS MUCH MORE LOW CLOUDINESS OVER SE
PA...NE MD AND N DE THIS MORNING THAN ANTICIPATED YDY.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI PRODUCTS.

TONIGHT...A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE
STILL UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE STOUT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE OTHER HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION, COULD SEE HIGHS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY
HOWEVER, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE, LEAVING THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST ON THE
HEALS OF THE HIGH. STILL, BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW THESE FEATURES JUST
BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN SE PA NE MD AND N DE THROUGH 15Z
OTRW VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT BUT LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...MAINLY THIS AFTN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. BUT A WIND GUST TO
35 KT POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AFTN TSTM NEAR AND N OF KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY DEGRADE TO MVFR CONDS IN FOG LATE. IFR
CONDS IN LEFTOVER EARLY NIGHT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY...

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER ANY TSRA MVFR CEILINGS AND
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY USE (INTERNET
AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS
BEEN DERIVED FOR THE MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE
NWS FOR USE IN OUR MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA NE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT ON THE
ATLC WATERS.

SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 942
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON 942
CLIMATE...942






000
FXUS61 KPHI 211342
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
942 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO VIRGINIA PRODUCES OCCASIONALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930AM ESTF NO CHANGE FROM THE 820AM UPDATED ESTF. WE WILL RERVIEW
WITH NEW GUIDANCE AND MAY ISSUE UPDATED WORDING ENHANCEMENTS SOMETIME
BETWEEN 1030AM AND 1230PM.

12Z SOUNDING FROM IAD/WAL/APG AND OKX REVIEWED. MAX TEMPS 83-86.

UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL
HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS (G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW
NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE 00Z/21 NSSL WRF AN IN WEAK WAA AHEAD
OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA. THAT DOESN`T RULE OUT THE DELMARVA
BUT FOR SOME TIME NOW...IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY TO
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED NORTH RATHER THAN SOUTH. PWAT
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE 400-600J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.

OTRW...A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS. THERE IS MUCH MORE LOW CLOUDINESS OVER SE
PA...NE MD AND N DE THIS MORNING THAN ANTICIPATED YDY.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI PRODUCTS.

TONIGHT...A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE
STILL UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE STOUT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE OTHER HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION, COULD SEE HIGHS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY
HOWEVER, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE, LEAVING THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST ON THE
HEALS OF THE HIGH. STILL, BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW THESE FEATURES JUST
BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN SE PA NE MD AND N DE THROUGH 15Z
OTRW VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT BUT LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...MAINLY THIS AFTN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. BUT A WIND GUST TO
35 KT POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AFTN TSTM NEAR AND N OF KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY DEGRADE TO MVFR CONDS IN FOG LATE. IFR
CONDS IN LEFTOVER EARLY NIGHT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY...

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER ANY TSRA MVFR CEILINGS AND
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

WE`VE NOT SEEN ANY NEW MAREPS FROM MARINERS IN OUR EASY USE (INTERNET
AND/OR SMART PHONE) LINK WWW.WEATHER.GOV/PHI/MAROBSFORM THIS HAS
BEEN DERIVED FOR THE MARINER TO EASILY POST INFO INSTANTLY TO THE
NWS FOR USE IN OUR MARINE PRODUCTS.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA NE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT ON THE
ATLC WATERS.

SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE RCD INQUIRY ON HOW THE CLIMATE PROGRAM SELECTS FOR OUR 530 PM
CLI. OUR PROGRAM SEARCHES MAX/MIN TEMP DATA FOR THE DAY ENDING 5PM
SHARP. THAT DATA IS INGESTED INTO THE 530 PM POSTED CLI. IF A MAX
TEMP OCCURS THEREAFTER...IT IS REFLECTED IN THE END OF DAY SUMMARY
POSTS AROUND 230 AM EDT THE NEXT DAY AND ALSO YOU CAN CHECK THE 8
PM RTPPHI WHICH POSTS AROUND 815 PM EDT.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON
NEAR TERM...DRAG 942
SHORT TERM...DRAG
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON 942
CLIMATE...942






000
FXUS61 KPHI 211317
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
917 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO VIRGINIA PRODUCES OCCASIONALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12Z SOUNDING FROM IAD/WAL/APG AND OKX REVIEWED. MAX TEMPS 83-86.

UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL
HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS (G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW
NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE 00Z/21 NSSL WRF AN IN WEAK WAA AHEAD
OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA. THAT DOESN`T RULE OUT THE DELMARVA
BUT FOR SOME TIME NOW...IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY TO
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED NORTH RATHER THAN SOUTH. PWAT
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE 400-600J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.

OTRW...A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI PRODUCTS.

TONIGHT...A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE
STILL UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE STOUT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE OTHER HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION, COULD SEE HIGHS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY
HOWEVER, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE, LEAVING THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST ON THE
HEALS OF THE HIGH. STILL, BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW THESE FEATURES JUST
BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN SE PA NE MD AND N DE THROUGH 15Z
OTRW VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT BUT LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...MAINLY THIS AFTN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. BUT A WIND GUST TO
35 KT POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AFTN TSTM NEAR AND N OF KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY DEGRADE TO MVFR CONDS IN FOG LATE. IFR
CONDS IN LEFTOVER EARLY NIGHT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY...

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER ANY TSRA MVFR CEILINGS AND
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA NE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT ON THE
ATLC WATERS.

SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON 917
NEAR TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 917
SHORT TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 917
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 917
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 917






000
FXUS61 KPHI 211317
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
917 AM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE FROM LAKE ONTARIO TO VIRGINIA PRODUCES OCCASIONALLY
UNSETTLED WEATHER HERE THROUGH FRIDAY. QUEBEC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
OUR PRIMARY WEATHER INFLUENCE LATER THIS WEEKEND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF NEXT WEEK AS THE HIGH SETTLES SOUTHWARD TO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
12Z SOUNDING FROM IAD/WAL/APG AND OKX REVIEWED. MAX TEMPS 83-86.

UNSETTLED WITH POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING AND SMALL
HAIL PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS (G35KT)...PARTICULARLY NE PA AND NW
NJ...AND THINKING AKIN TO THE 00Z/21 NSSL WRF AN IN WEAK WAA AHEAD
OF THE SFC TROUGH IN CENTRAL PA. THAT DOESN`T RULE OUT THE DELMARVA
BUT FOR SOME TIME NOW...IT APPEARS INSTABILITY AND PROXIMITY TO
THE COLD TROUGH ALOFT HAS FOCUSED NORTH RATHER THAN SOUTH. PWAT
NEAR 1.5 INCHES. MLCAPE 400-600J. MARGINAL 0-6KM BULK SHEAR.

OTRW...A NICE DAY WITH TEMPS NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL UNDER
MIXED SUN AND CLOUDS.

PLEASE FOLLOW ANY UPDATED SWOMCD`S SWODY1 AND LOCAL PHI PRODUCTS.

TONIGHT...A COUPLE OF BANDS OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED TSTMS IN THE
STILL UNSTABLE AIRMASS. SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY/...
1000J OF MLCAPE AND SLIGHTLY STRONGER 0-6KM BULK SHEAR CUES INTEREST
IN CONVECTION FRI AFTN. SREF HAS DECENT PROBS FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY
E PA...S NJ AND THE DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THE REGION REMAINS UNDER
NORTHWEST FLOW AS THE STOUT RIDGE REMAINS OVER THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY, AND THE OTHER HIGH REMAINS OVER EASTERN CANADA. WITH THE
NORTHWEST FLOW, EXPECT A FEW EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS TO BRING
CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING
OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS REMAINS UNCERTAIN.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE HIGH OVER EASTERN CANADA BUILDS SOUTH.
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD AIR ADVECTION, COULD SEE HIGHS ESPECIALLY
EARLY IN THE WEEKEND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. BY TUESDAY
HOWEVER, THE HIGH STARTS TO SHIFT OFF SHORE, LEAVING THE REGION
UNDER SOUTHERLY FLOW AND LEADING TO A MODEST WARMING TREND. HOWEVER,
ALSO TOWARDS THE END OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD THE GFS AND ECMWF
SOLUTIONS DIFFER GREATLY ON THE TIMING OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE PROPAGATING EAST ON THE
HEALS OF THE HIGH. STILL, BOTH SOLUTIONS SHOW THESE FEATURES JUST
BEYOND THE SEVEN DAY FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TODAY...PERIOD OF MVFR CIGS IN SE PA NE MD AND N DE THROUGH 15Z
OTRW VFR SCT-BKN AOA 4000 FT BUT LOCAL IFR CONDS IN SCT SHOWERS
AND TSTMS...MAINLY THIS AFTN. LIGHT SOUTH WIND. BUT A WIND GUST TO
35 KT POSSIBLE ASSOCIATED WITH AN AFTN TSTM NEAR AND N OF KABE.

TONIGHT...VFR CIGS MAY DEGRADE TO MVFR CONDS IN FOG LATE. IFR
CONDS IN LEFTOVER EARLY NIGHT SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

FRIDAY...

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...MOSTLY VFR. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSRA ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION. UNDER ANY TSRA MVFR CEILINGS AND
BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES WILL BE POSSIBLE.

SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...GENERALLY VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH SEAS
3 FEET OR LESS AND SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS BECOMING
EASTERLY FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT...SCA NE WIND GUSTS MAY DEVELOP LATE AT NIGHT ON THE
ATLC WATERS.

SATURDAY...OCCASIONAL GUSTS NEAR 25 KT AND WAVE HEIGHTS APPROACHING
5 FT ARE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WAVE HEIGHTS AND WINDS SLOWLY FALLING BELOW
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA SUNDAY MORNING AND SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW CRITERIA THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG/JOHNSON 917
NEAR TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 917
SHORT TERM...DRAG/ROBERTSON 917
LONG TERM...JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 917
MARINE...DRAG/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON 917







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