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000
FXUS61 KPHI 251319
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
919 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area this weekend before
moving off the coast Sunday night and Monday. A cold front will
move through the area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The
front will stall off the coast and to our south through the end of
the week while high pressure builds in from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pres will be located over the region today. After mrng low
clouds, clearing will take place and expect a mostly sunny and
pleasant day. Temps will be pleasant with low relative humidity
values. Temperatures are currently running a few degrees warmer
than modeled across the northern half of the region. Given the dry
conditions and boundary layer temperatures near 20C have added
about three degrees to the highs across the Lehigh Valley and
Northern NJ with the 9:30 am update.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
The aforementioned high will remain parked over the region tonight,
so a clear sky and light wind will prevail. Some patchy fog is
psbl.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sunday and Sunday night, the mid-Atlantic region will remain
situated on the western periphery of high pressure that will be
centered off the east coast. A southerly return flow pattern will
develop around the backside of the surface high. Initially, WAA
within the boundary layer appears negligible with the low-level
ridge axis directly overhead. Accordingly, we are not expecting a
notable warming trend heading into Sunday. The one exception to the
above may be our far northern and western zones where there is a
possibility the ridge axis progresses downstream early enough on
Sunday for WAA to ensue by afternoon. The warmest conditions are
forecast to reside west of I-95 on Sunday where highs are in the
upper 80s (which would be 3-5F higher than what is forecast for
today). Low temperatures Sunday night will generally be in the 60s
with a few 50s possible in the Pine Barrens and the sheltered
valleys of northeast PA/northwest NJ.

A cold front will move into the Great Lakes-Midwest region on Monday
while a pre-frontal trough approaches from the Ohio Valley. High
clouds well ahead of this system will increase across the forecast
area during the day. Went a few degrees above guidance for high
temps, especially along and east of I-95, where it appears the
arrival of the thicker cloud deck ahead of the pre-frontal trough
should hold off until late in the day, allowing for strong heating
to take place. Models indicate a band of precip associated a leading
shortwave disturbance aloft moving into eastern PA during the
afternoon and the rest of the area Monday night. Went against climo
and kept thunderstorms out of the forecast for Monday as modified
forecast soundings (i.e., modified to account for the cool surface
temperature bias that we are expecting models to exhibit for Monday)
depict a rather stable environment over the area. We could
potentially see isolated thunderstorms move in from the west Monday
night when some elevated instability with the pre-frontal trough
could arrive.

The cold front is forecast to be located in western NY and the Ohio
Valley by Tuesday morning. The front may then jump to the pre-
frontal surface trough on the lee side of the Applachians during
the day. There is still some uncertainty with how quickly the
front arrives into our western zones and subsequently moves off
the coast since downstream blocking over the western Atlantic
Ocean should slow down the movement of the front as it approaches
the eastern seaboard. The latest forecast advertises the highest
PoPs in the period for late Tuesday afternoon when the front
should be at least on our western doorstep and Tuesday night when
the front will likely be somewhere in the forecast area. There is
a potential that we may see a few strong to severe storms if the
arrival of the synoptic lift from the front and upper shortwave
trough coincides with peak heating Tuesday afternoon-early evening
(per 00Z GFS solution). Other guidance, including the
ECMWF/Canadian depict a less favorable setup for severe storms
across our area with the best forcing arriving at night. Kept low
chances in the forecast for Wednesday morning if the front slows
down or stalls over the area as indicated by the past several runs
of the ECMWF.

The frontal boundary is forecast to remain just off the coast and
also to our south during the second half of the work week.
Meanwhile, high pressure over the Great Plains and Midwest will will
build into our region. Expect a mainly dry period late Wednesday
through early Friday. A few showers may develop Friday afternoon,
particularly across our southern zones with the frontal boundary
starting to lift slowly northward back toward the region. Near
normal temperatures are expected during this time.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

IFR/LIFR conds, mainly for low clouds prevail erly this mrng.
However, after daybreak, conds shud become VFR.  Then expect VFR to
dominate thru the day and into tonight.  Some fog is again possible
late tonight with lcl vsby restrictions.

Light wind erly will become more ne to e during the day with speeds
less than 10 kts.  By evening a more s to se flow is expected.
Overnight, the wind is expected to be calm to less than 5 kts before
increasing to less than 10 kts on Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday and Sunday night...VFR with light southerly winds

Monday through Tuesday night...VFR outside of heavier showers and
storms. Expect coverage of showers to be scattered early in the
week. Thunderstorm chances looks minimal on Monday, then
increases Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Wednesday...Winds shift to northwesterly in wake of fropa. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
There could be marginal sca conds erly today due to the NE to E
flow, but confidence is not high enough for sca issuance. Seas are
still around three feet with the 9:30 am update making it even
less likely to reach five feet with the change in wind direction
to more southeasterly later today.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...Winds and seas should remain below SCA
criteria. Thunderstorms could produce locally gusty winds over the
waters Tuesday late afternoon and night.

RIP CURRENTS...
Moderate risk for rip currents today with the onshore flow. The
risk appears to lower by Sunday as winds and seas diminish.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Klein
Near Term...Gaines/Nierenberg
Short Term...Nierenberg
Long Term...Klein
Aviation...Klein/Nierenberg
Marine...Gaines/Klein/Nierenberg




000
FXUS61 KPHI 250812
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
412 AM EDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain over the area this weekend before
moving off the coast Sunday night and Monday. A cold front will
move through the area Tuesday afternoon into Tuesday night. The
front will stall off the coast and to our south through the end of
the week while high pressure builds in from the west.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pres will be located over the region today. After mrng low
clouds, clearing will take place and expect a mostly sunny and
pleasant day. Temps will be pleasant with low relative humidity
values.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
The aforementioned high will remain parked over the region tonight,
so a clear sky and light wind will prevail. Some patchy fog is
psbl.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Sunday and Sunday night, the mid-Atlantic region will remain
situated on the western periphery of high pressure that will be
centered off the east coast. A southerly return flow pattern will
develop around the backside of the surface high. Initially, WAA
within the boundary layer appears negligible with the low-level
ridge axis directly overhead. Accordingly, we are not expecting a
notable warming trend heading into Sunday. The one exception to the
above may be our far northern and western zones where there is a
possibility the ridge axis progresses downstream early enough on
Sunday for WAA to ensue by afternoon. The warmest conditions are
forecast to reside west of I-95 on Sunday where highs are in the
upper 80s (which would be 3-5F higher than what is forecast for
today). Low temperatures Sunday night will generally be in the 60s
with a few 50s possible in the Pine Barrens and the sheltered
valleys of northeast PA/northwest NJ.

A cold front will move into the Great Lakes-Midwest region on Monday
while a pre-frontal trough approaches from the Ohio Valley. High
clouds well ahead of this system will increase across the forecast
area during the day. Went a few degrees above guidance for high
temps, especially along and east of I-95, where it appears the
arrival of the thicker cloud deck ahead of the pre-frontal trough
should hold off until late in the day, allowing for strong heating
to take place. Models indicate a band of precip associated a leading
shortwave disturbance aloft moving into eastern PA during the
afternoon and the rest of the area Monday night. Went against climo
and kept thunderstorms out of the forecast for Monday as modified
forecast soundings (i.e., modified to account for the cool surface
temperature bias that we are expecting models to exhibit for Monday)
depict a rather stable environment over the area. We could
potentially see isolated thunderstorms move in from the west Monday
night when some elevated instability with the pre-frontal trough
could arrive.

The cold front is forecast to be located in western NY and the Ohio
Valley by Tuesday morning. The front may then jump to the pre-
frontal surface trough on the lee side of the Applachians during
the day. There is still some uncertainty with how quickly the
front arrives into our western zones and subsequently moves off
the coast since downstream blocking over the western Atlantic
Ocean should slow down the movement of the front as it approaches
the eastern seaboard. The latest forecast advertises the highest
PoPs in the period for late Tuesday afternoon when the front
should be at least on our western doorstep and Tuesday night when
the front will likely be somewhere in the forecast area. There is
a potential that we may see a few strong to severe storms if the
arrival of the synoptic lift from the front and upper shortwave
trough coincides with peak heating Tuesday afternoon-early evening
(per 00Z GFS solution). Other guidance, including the
ECMWF/Canadian depict a less favorable setup for severe storms
across our area with the best forcing arriving at night. Kept low
chances in the forecast for Wednesday morning if the front slows
down or stalls over the area as indicated by the past several runs
of the ECMWF.

The frontal boundary is forecast to remain just off the coast and
also to our south during the second half of the work week.
Meanwhile, high pressure over the Great Plains and Midwest will will
build into our region. Expect a mainly dry period late Wednesday
through early Friday. A few showers may develop Friday afternoon,
particularly across our southern zones with the frontal boundary
starting to lift slowly northward back toward the region. Near
normal temperatures are expected during this time.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

IFR/LIFR conds, mainly for low clouds prevail erly this mrng.
However, after daybreak, conds shud become VFR.  Then expect VFR to
dominate thru the day and into tonight.  Some fog is again possible
late tonight with lcl vsby restrictions.

Light wind erly will become more ne to e during the day with speeds
less than 10 kts.  By evening a more s to se flow is expected.
Overnight, the wind is expected to be calm to less than 5 kts before
increasing to less than 10 kts on Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday and Sunday night...VFR with light southerly winds

Monday through Tuesday night...VFR outside of heavier showers and
storms. Expect coverage of showers to be scattered early in the
week. Thunderstorm chances looks minimal on Monday, then
increases Tuesday afternoon and evening.

Wednesday...Winds shift to northwesterly in wake of fropa. VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
There could be marginal sca conds erly today due to the NE to E
flow, but confidence is not high enough for sca issuance. Then
wind and seas are expected to decrease thru the remainder of the
near and short term pd as the flow becomes more sely.

Outlook...

Sunday through Wednesday...Winds and seas should remain below SCA
criteria. Thunderstorms could produce locally gusty winds over the
waters Tuesday late afternoon and night.

RIP CURRENTS...
Moderate risk for rip currents today with the onshore flow. The
risk appears to lower by Sunday as winds and seas diminish.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Klein
Near Term...Nierenberg
Short Term...Nierenberg
Long Term...Klein
Aviation...Klein/Nierenberg
Marine...Klein/Nierenberg




000
FXUS61 KPHI 250152
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
952 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
This weekend, a high pressure system will build over the region.
A frontal system will move through our area by mid week. A high
pressure system will build over our region later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
The remaining showers over Chester County and Cecil County will
will dissipate shortly. The light northeasterly flow should bring
dry air into our region. However, we continue to think that low
clouds and fog will expand tonight in areas that received heavy
rainfall today.

Minimum temperatures should be mainly in the upper 50s and lower
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
High pressure will continue to build in Saturday. There will
likely be some lingering clouds and fog, especially along the NJ
shore areas during the morning. After the mid-morning, mostly
Sunny skies are expected. Winds will continue to be from the E or
NE at 5 to 10 mph. High temperatures will reach into the low to
mid 80s in most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Saturday night: A clear night with light winds and conditions
favorable for radiational cooling. Some patchy fog is possible as
well just before sunrise when higher RH values correspond with the
light winds.

Sunday and Sunday night: High pressure will be moving eastward
and offshore resulting in another dry but hotter day. A look at
actual model data shows the ECMWF to be several degrees warmer
than the GFS. Boundary layer temperature output on both occasions
supports the model output. Given the dry conditions from
Philadelphia and points north this forecast and recent cool biases
with model data, this forecast is in line with the warmer ECMWF.
High temperatures will push the mid and upper 80`s in most of the
region, with the highest readings in the Lehigh valley and the
cooler readings down by the shore. Southerly flow will result in a
warmer and muggy night as well Sunday night.

Monday through Wednesday: A cold frontal boundary will move from
the Great lakes southwestward through the region in this time
frame. A few mid-level shortwaves ahead of this front will likely
serve as triggers for scattered showers and thunderstorms in a
warm and humid air mass. The most likely window for rain based on
current ensemble data stretches from Monday night through Tuesday
night. However, given uncertainty in timing and coverage will
continue with chance pops. This will likely not dent the drought
across the northern half of the region. The actual cold front will
likely move through on Wednesday with a cooler and drier airmass
moving in behind the front. Winds will be southerly from 5 to 15
mph throughout the early part of the week.

Wednesday night through Friday: High pressure will build
southeastward into the region with a cooler and drier airmass.
Leaned at or warmer than ensemble guidance here given the dry
ground and recent temperature biases the past few weeks. Winds
generally westerly to southwesterly at around 10 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Low clouds remained over KACY and KMIV this evening. The low
clouds are forecast to expand northward overnight and they should
impact KILG, KPHL and KPNE. There seems to be a lesser chance that
they will reach KTTN, KABE and KRDG. However, we have maintained
their mention at those three locations for the sake of
continuity. Conditions are expected to improve rapidly on
Saturday morning with the sky becoming mostly clear by 1400z. VFR
conditions are then anticipated for the balance of the day.

A light northeast to east wind is expected for overnight and
Saturday with the wind direction forecast to veer toward the
southeast late in the day.

Outlook...
Sunday and Sunday night: VFR. Southwest winds around 10 knots.

Monday through Tuesday night: Mainly VFR. Some scattered
thunderstorms will reduce vsbys and ceilings to MVFR and IFR at
times. The highest chances for any storms are on Tuesday.
Southwest winds from 5 to 15 knots, highest Monday and Tuesday
afternoon.

Wednesday: VFR. Northwest winds around 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Onshore flow will continue overnight and Saturday with high
pressure building in from the north. Seas have been steady around
3-4 ft and this will continue tonight. Seas will tick up closer
to SCA criteria seas Saturday. Confid is still not the greatest
however, we`ll just mention 4 ft seas attm and hold on the SCA
flag for now. Fair weather expected Saturday.

Outlook...
Saturday night through Wednesday:

Seas will remain under five feet throughout the period. The
highest seas around four feet are likely to occur into Sunday then
again on Tuesday. Top wind gusts will top out around 20 knots both
Monday and Tuesday afternoons from the south.

RIP CURRENTS...
Moderate risk for rip currents on Sat with the onshore flow. High
pressure will bring lighter winds and lowering seas Sun. Risk on
Sun will likely be less than Sat.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Synopsis...JJ
Near Term...Iovino
Short Term...O`Hara
Long Term...Gaines
Aviation...Gaines/Iovino
Marine...Gaines/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPHI 242145
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
545 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
This weekend, a high pressure system will build over the region.
A frontal system will move through our area by mid week. A high
pressure system will build over our region later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
The remaining showers and isolated thunderstorms in the western
and southern parts of our forecast area will dissipate during the
early evening hours with the loss of daytime heating.

The developing light northeasterly flow should bring dry air into
our region. However, we continue to think that low clouds and fog
will form tonight in areas that received heavy rainfall today.

Minimum temperatures should be mainly in the upper 50s and lower
60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
High pressure will continue to build in Saturday. There will
likely be some lingering clouds and fog, especially along the NJ
shore areas during the morning. After the mid-morning, mostly
Sunny skies are expected. Winds will continue to be from the E or
NE at 5 to 10 mph. High temperatures will reach into the low to
mid 80s in most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Saturday night: A clear night with light winds and conditions
favorable for radiational cooling. Some patchy fog is possible as
well just before sunrise when higher RH values correspond with the
light winds.

Sunday and Sunday night: High pressure will be moving eastward
and offshore resulting in another dry but hotter day. A look at
actual model data shows the ECMWF to be several degrees warmer
than the GFS. Boundary layer temperature output on both occasions
supports the model output. Given the dry conditions from
Philadelphia and points north this forecast and recent cool biases
with model data, this forecast is in line with the warmer ECMWF.
High temperatures will push the mid and upper 80`s in most of the
region, with the highest readings in the Lehigh valley and the
cooler readings down by the shore. Southerly flow will result in a
warmer and muggy night as well Sunday night.

Monday through Wednesday: A cold frontal boundary will move from
the Great lakes southwestward through the region in this time
frame. A few mid-level shortwaves ahead of this front will likely
serve as triggers for scattered showers and thunderstorms in a
warm and humid air mass. The most likely window for rain based on
current ensemble data stretches from Monday night through Tuesday
night. However, given uncertainty in timing and coverage will
continue with chance pops. This will likely not dent the drought
across the northern half of the region. The actual cold front will
likely move through on Wednesday with a cooler and drier airmass
moving in behind the front. Winds will be southerly from 5 to 15
mph throughout the early part of the week.

Wednesday night through Friday: High pressure will build
southeastward into the region with a cooler and drier airmass.
Leaned at or warmer than ensemble guidance here given the dry
ground and recent temperature biases the past few weeks. Winds
generally westerly to southwesterly at around 10 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Tonight...The showers will diminish this evening then skies will
clearing from N to S. We will likely hold onto some low clouds
across the srn areas. Any breaks will result in fog development
across the srn areas. Low clouds could affect KPHL/KPNE and up
into KTTN also. We have decided to preserve some of the earlier
clouds in the fcst. The guidance doesn`t mention much in the way
of low clouds, but the pattern seems to favor it. Winds tonight
light from the NE or E.

Sat...VFR conditions expected after any low clouds or morning fog
dissipates. Winds will be east at around 10 knots by early
afternoon.

Outlook...
Sunday and Sunday night: VFR. Southwest winds around 10 knots.

Monday through Tuesday night: Mainly VFR. Some scattered
thunderstorms will reduce vsbys and ceilings to MVFR and IFR at
times. The highest chances for any storms are on Tuesday.
Southwest winds from 5 to 15 knots, highest Monday and Tuesday
afternoon.

Wednesday: VFR. Northwest winds around 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...
Onshore flow will continue tonight and Saturday with high
pressure building in from the north. Scattered thunderstorms
across the srn NJ and DE waters this afternoon will diminish this
evening. patchy fog is possible tonight. Seas have been steady
around 3-4 ft so far today and this will continue tonight. Seas
will tick up closer to SCA criteria seas Saturday. Confid is still
not the greatest however, we`ll just mention 4 ft seas attm and
hold on the SCA flag for now. Fair weather expected Saturday.

Outlook...
Saturday night through Wednesday:

Seas will remain under five feet throughout the period. The
highest seas around four feet are likely to occur into Sunday then
again on Tuesday. Top wind gusts will top out around 20 knots both
Monday and Tuesday afternoons from the south.

RIP CURRENTS...
Moderate risk for rip currents the rest of today and probably Sat
also. High pressure will bring lighter winds and lowering seas
Sun. Risk on Sun will likely be less than Sat.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

Synopsis...JJ
Near Term...Iovino
Short Term...O`Hara
Long Term...Gaines
Aviation...Gaines/O`Hara
Marine...Gaines/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPHI 241941
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
341 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front over Northern Delaware and southern New Jersey will
continue to gradually push south into this evening. This weekend, a
high-pressure system will build over the region. A frontal system
will move through our area by mid-week. A high-pressure system will
build over our region later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

Scattered convection has developed in the heat of the
day across the Delmarva and Srn NJ. There are also more isolated
showers across ern and se PA too. The activity has been moving
rather slow, prompting a SVR and some FFWs for the area. These
showers/tstms should continue for the next few hours before
decreasing this evening. The onshore flow will continue overnight
with high pressure building down from the north. Low clouds and
patchy fog will be across the area, especially where the present
rains are. We will mention fog across the north too, where more of a
patchy radiation fog is psbl. Low temperatures tonight will be in
the upper 50s to low 60s in most areas and mid 60s over the Delmarva
and metro Philadelphia.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...

High pressure will continue to build in Saturday. There will
likely be some lingering clouds and fog, especially along the NJ
shore areas during the morning. After the mid-morning, mostly
Sunny skies are expected. Winds will continue to be from the E or
NE at 5 to 10 mph. High temperatures will reach into the low to
mid 80s in most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Saturday night: A clear night with light winds and conditions
favorable for radiational cooling. Some patchy fog is possible as
well just before sunrise  when higher RH values correspond with the
light winds.


Sunday and Sunday night:  High pressure will be moving eastward and
offshore resulting in another dry but hotter day. A look at actual
model data shows the ECMWF to be several degrees warmer than the
GFS. Boundary layer temperature output on both occasions supports
the model output. Given the dry conditions from Philadelphia and
points north this forecast and recent cool biases with model data,
this forecast is in line with the warmer ECMWF.  High temperatures
will push the mid and upper 80`s in most of the region, with the
highest readings in the Lehigh valley and the cooler readings down
by the shore. Southerly flow will result in a warmer and muggy night
as well Sunday night.

Monday through Wednesday: A cold frontal boundary will move from the
Great lakes southwestward through the region in this time frame. A
few mid-level shortwaves ahead of this front will likely serve as
triggers for scattered showers and thunderstorms in a warm and humid
air mass. The most likely window for rain based on current ensemble
data stretches from Monday night through Tuesday night.  However,
given uncertainty in timing and coverage will continue with chance
pops. This will likely not dent the drought across the northern half
of the region. The actual cold front will likely move through on
Wednesday with a cooler and drier airmass moving in behind the
front. Winds will be southerly from 5 to 15 mph throughout the early
part of the week.

Wednesday night through Friday:  High pressure will build
southeastward into the region with a cooler and drier airmass.
Leaned at or warmer than ensemble guidance here given the dry
ground and recent temperature biases the past few weeks. Winds
generally westerly to southwesterly at around 10 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Most of the area remain under VFR conditions early this afternoon.
The southern TAF sites have lower clouds and scattered tstms nearby.
We have kept a mention of tstms and low mvfr conditions at KACY/KMIV
and KILG into the afternoon. The shower activity is moving very
slowly with the weaker winds aloft. A few showers could develop
further north in the Lehigh Valley according to some of the local
fcst models. We have left any shower activity out of the tafs attm
with amds possible later. Winds will remain erly at 10 to 15 kts.

Tonight...The showers will diminish this evening then skies will
clearing from N to S. We will likely hold onto some low clouds across
the srn areas. Any breaks will result in fog development across the
srn areas. Low clouds could affect KPHL/KPNE and up into KTTN also.
We have decided to preserve some of the earlier clouds in the fcst.
The guidance doesn`t mention much in the way of low clouds, but the
pattern seems to favor it. Winds tonight light from the NE or E.

Sat...VFR conditions expected after any low clouds or morning fog
dissipates. Winds will be east at around 10 knots by early
afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday and Sunday night: VFR. Southwest winds around 10 knots.

Monday through Tuesday night: Mainly VFR. Some scattered
thunderstorms will reduce vsbys and ceilings to MVFR and IFR at
times. The highest chances for any storms are on Tuesday.  Southwest
winds from 5 to 15 knots, highest Monday and Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday: VFR. Northwest winds around 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...

Onshore flow will continue tonight and Saturday with high
pressure building in from the north. Scattered thunderstorms across
the srn NJ and DE waters this afternoon will diminish this evening.
patchy fog is possible tonight. Seas have been steady around 3-4 ft
so far today and this will continue tonight. Seas will tick up
closer to SCA criteria seas Saturday. Confid is still not the
greatest however, we`ll just mention 4 ft seas attm and hold on the
SCA flag for now. Fair weather expected Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday:

Seas will remain under five feet throughout the period. The
highest seas around four feet are likely to occur into Sunday then
again on Tuesday. Top wind gusts will top out around 20 knots both
Monday and Tuesday afternoons from the south.

RIP CURRENTS...

Moderate risk for rip currents the rest of today
and probably Sat also. High pressure will bring lighter winds and
lowering seas Sun. Risk on Sun will likely be less than Sat.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...JJ
Near Term...O`Hara
Short Term...O`Hara
Long Term...Gaines
Aviation...Gaines/O`Hara
Marine...Gaines/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPHI 241941
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
341 PM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A cold front over Northern Delaware and southern New Jersey will
continue to gradually push south into this evening. This weekend, a
high-pressure system will build over the region. A frontal system
will move through our area by mid-week. A high-pressure system will
build over our region later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...

Scattered convection has developed in the heat of the
day across the Delmarva and Srn NJ. There are also more isolated
showers across ern and se PA too. The activity has been moving
rather slow, prompting a SVR and some FFWs for the area. These
showers/tstms should continue for the next few hours before
decreasing this evening. The onshore flow will continue overnight
with high pressure building down from the north. Low clouds and
patchy fog will be across the area, especially where the present
rains are. We will mention fog across the north too, where more of a
patchy radiation fog is psbl. Low temperatures tonight will be in
the upper 50s to low 60s in most areas and mid 60s over the Delmarva
and metro Philadelphia.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...

High pressure will continue to build in Saturday. There will
likely be some lingering clouds and fog, especially along the NJ
shore areas during the morning. After the mid-morning, mostly
Sunny skies are expected. Winds will continue to be from the E or
NE at 5 to 10 mph. High temperatures will reach into the low to
mid 80s in most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

Saturday night: A clear night with light winds and conditions
favorable for radiational cooling. Some patchy fog is possible as
well just before sunrise  when higher RH values correspond with the
light winds.


Sunday and Sunday night:  High pressure will be moving eastward and
offshore resulting in another dry but hotter day. A look at actual
model data shows the ECMWF to be several degrees warmer than the
GFS. Boundary layer temperature output on both occasions supports
the model output. Given the dry conditions from Philadelphia and
points north this forecast and recent cool biases with model data,
this forecast is in line with the warmer ECMWF.  High temperatures
will push the mid and upper 80`s in most of the region, with the
highest readings in the Lehigh valley and the cooler readings down
by the shore. Southerly flow will result in a warmer and muggy night
as well Sunday night.

Monday through Wednesday: A cold frontal boundary will move from the
Great lakes southwestward through the region in this time frame. A
few mid-level shortwaves ahead of this front will likely serve as
triggers for scattered showers and thunderstorms in a warm and humid
air mass. The most likely window for rain based on current ensemble
data stretches from Monday night through Tuesday night.  However,
given uncertainty in timing and coverage will continue with chance
pops. This will likely not dent the drought across the northern half
of the region. The actual cold front will likely move through on
Wednesday with a cooler and drier airmass moving in behind the
front. Winds will be southerly from 5 to 15 mph throughout the early
part of the week.

Wednesday night through Friday:  High pressure will build
southeastward into the region with a cooler and drier airmass.
Leaned at or warmer than ensemble guidance here given the dry
ground and recent temperature biases the past few weeks. Winds
generally westerly to southwesterly at around 10 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Most of the area remain under VFR conditions early this afternoon.
The southern TAF sites have lower clouds and scattered tstms nearby.
We have kept a mention of tstms and low mvfr conditions at KACY/KMIV
and KILG into the afternoon. The shower activity is moving very
slowly with the weaker winds aloft. A few showers could develop
further north in the Lehigh Valley according to some of the local
fcst models. We have left any shower activity out of the tafs attm
with amds possible later. Winds will remain erly at 10 to 15 kts.

Tonight...The showers will diminish this evening then skies will
clearing from N to S. We will likely hold onto some low clouds across
the srn areas. Any breaks will result in fog development across the
srn areas. Low clouds could affect KPHL/KPNE and up into KTTN also.
We have decided to preserve some of the earlier clouds in the fcst.
The guidance doesn`t mention much in the way of low clouds, but the
pattern seems to favor it. Winds tonight light from the NE or E.

Sat...VFR conditions expected after any low clouds or morning fog
dissipates. Winds will be east at around 10 knots by early
afternoon.

Outlook...

Sunday and Sunday night: VFR. Southwest winds around 10 knots.

Monday through Tuesday night: Mainly VFR. Some scattered
thunderstorms will reduce vsbys and ceilings to MVFR and IFR at
times. The highest chances for any storms are on Tuesday.  Southwest
winds from 5 to 15 knots, highest Monday and Tuesday afternoon.

Wednesday: VFR. Northwest winds around 10 knots.

&&

.MARINE...

Onshore flow will continue tonight and Saturday with high
pressure building in from the north. Scattered thunderstorms across
the srn NJ and DE waters this afternoon will diminish this evening.
patchy fog is possible tonight. Seas have been steady around 3-4 ft
so far today and this will continue tonight. Seas will tick up
closer to SCA criteria seas Saturday. Confid is still not the
greatest however, we`ll just mention 4 ft seas attm and hold on the
SCA flag for now. Fair weather expected Saturday.

Outlook...

Saturday night through Wednesday:

Seas will remain under five feet throughout the period. The
highest seas around four feet are likely to occur into Sunday then
again on Tuesday. Top wind gusts will top out around 20 knots both
Monday and Tuesday afternoons from the south.

RIP CURRENTS...

Moderate risk for rip currents the rest of today
and probably Sat also. High pressure will bring lighter winds and
lowering seas Sun. Risk on Sun will likely be less than Sat.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...JJ
Near Term...O`Hara
Short Term...O`Hara
Long Term...Gaines
Aviation...Gaines/O`Hara
Marine...Gaines/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPHI 241511
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
1111 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will over the northern Delmarva and southern New
Jersey early this morning will gradually push south of the area
today. High pressure will build into the region for this weekend.
As the high moves offshore Monday, a slow moving cold front will
approach from the northwest Tuesday, and move through the region
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Clouds and widely sct showers remain across srn NJ and the
Delmarva this morning. These clouds will be slow to mix out with
the sfc flow now coming in off the ocean. So we will continue with
the low chc pops for showers and maybe a tstm this afternoon.
Better conditions expected across the far north, closer to the
building high. In these areas, no showers are expected and skies
will be partly to mostly sunny. High temps will likely be higher
across the north and tempered by the onshore flow across the
srn/ern areas. Minor edits made to temps and dew pt grids for the
update.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
The center of the surface high retreats off the New England coast
tonight. However, the high will still control our weather pattern
with the ridge axis expected to extend southwestward from the high
in to the northern mid-Atlantic region. Surface winds will back from
easterly at the start of the period to northeasterly by early
morning as low pressure moves offshore.

There is a potential for marine stratus to advect inland tonight
owing to the onshore flow. These low clouds in addition to higher
convective debris clouds are anticipated to curb radiational
cooling, especially the closer you are to the coast. Forecast lows
are in the mid to upper 50s in northeast PA/ northwest NJ and low to
mid 60s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The weekend will be dry with high pres over the region. The high
will slowly move ewd and offshore by Mon. As the high departs, low
pres in Ontario will move ewd. Its attendant cdfnt will approach
from the w, and cross the area on Tue. The GFS then keeps things
dry Wed into Thu. However, the ECMWF (with some support from the
CMC) wants to bring a second front through on WEd and another
shot of precip, before drying things out later Wed into Thu. For
right now, will carry low pops Tue wino erly Wed and no pops
after that.

Temps look to be nr nrml with comfortable humidity values thru the
pd.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

VFR across most taf sites except for low  clouds amd MVFR at MIV
and IFR at ACY. Looks like thee conditions will hold for several
more hours before slow improvement. Winds mostly NE to E thru the
afternoon.

There is a potential for low clouds to develop offshore and move
inland late this evening and overnight. This may yield MVFR or IFR
restrictions. Forecast confidence decreases farther away from the
coast. Therefore, limited IFR restrictions in the forecast to MIV
and ACY.

Outlook...
Sat and Sun...Predominantly VFR. Patchy ground fog may lead to
sub-VFR conditions late Saturday night and early Sunday morning,
mainly at ABE, MIV, and RDG.  Moderate Confidence.

Mon and Mon night...VFR. High Confidence.

Tue...A cdfnt will move slowly acrs the region and be accompanied
by shra/tsra. VFR will prevail, then MVFR/IFR psbl with fropa.
Still some timing diffs with cfp. Moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Onshore flow will continue and increase to 10-15 kt with gusts to
20 kt this afternoon and tonight. Seas will accordingly build to
around 4 ft in our coastal Atlantic waters by tonight. There is a
potential for wave heights to approach 5 ft by late tonight but
confidence in this happening was too low to issue a SCA at this
time.

Outlook...
Sat...Latest guid indicates that we cud have sca conds with a e to
ne flow which cud linger into Sat night.

Sun thru Tue...No marine headlines anticipated.

RIP CURRENTS...Seas off the coast will build to 3-4 ft in
response to an onshore flow that develops this morning and
strengthens this afternoon. Medium-period southerly swells will be
around 2 or 3 ft. In this setup, the risk for the formation of
dangerous rip currents will approach moderate this afternoon.

Based on the expected wind, wave and swell conditions a moderate
risk for the development of dangerous rip currents may persist
into Saturday along the New Jersey shore and at the Delaware
Beaches.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Klein/Nierenberg
Near Term...Klein/O`Hara
Short Term...Klein
Long Term...Nierenberg
Aviation...Klein/Nierenberg/O`Hara
Marine...Klein/Nierenberg/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPHI 240939
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
539 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will over the northern Delmarva and southern New
Jersey early this morning will gradually push south of the area
today. High pressure will build into the region for this weekend.
As the high moves offshore Monday, a slow moving cold front will
approach from the northwest Tuesday, and move through the region
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
530 AM update...Made some slight changes to the hourly PoPs and
weather grids based on the latest mesoanalysis and radar trends.
The focus of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms early
this morning will be along the frontal boundary in northeast MD,
DE and southern NJ.

Previous discussion...
A cold front was located over the area (somewhere near the I-95
corridor) early this morning. The front was marked by surface
winds from the north or northeast and temps/dewpoints in the upper
50s to lower 60s north of the boundary while southerly winds and
temps/dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s resided to the
south.

There were isolated showers present for much of the night near the
frontal boundary in southern NJ and the northern Delmarva. These
showers have been very light thus far. Interestingly, the HRRR has
been remarkably persistent/consistent over the past five or so runs
(ending with the 05Z run) that showers and thunderstorms form over
the Delmarva early this morning, resulting in a localized area of
heavy rainfall of 2+ inches (the 03Z HRRR showed a band of 5-8 of
rainfall in 4 hours but successive runs have since backed off from
these extreme amounts). Though it`s an extremely unlikely scenario
that is not supported by other model guidance, LAPS/SPC mesoanalysis
shows about 500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE and a local PWAT maximum near 1.7
inches over the northern Delmarva, which would be enough to support
low-topped heavy rain producers in this environment. PoPs early this
morning were raised to about 40 percent across these southern zones.

The front will eventually push south of the area later this morning
and afternoon as high pressure build in from the Great Lakes. With
breaks in the clouds today, temperatures could peak in the mid 80s
along and west of I-95. An easterly wind off the ocean will keep
temperatures cooler (70s) in the coastal plain today. We could see a
fair amount of stratocu develop in this maritime airmass during the
afternoon.

While most of the CWA should remain dry today, there are two areas
for potential shower development this afternoon. First, the
juxtaposition of lower-tropospheric convergence at the nose of weak
easterly jet to the north of a H9-H8 trough and upper-tropospheric
divergence in the right entrance region of a jet streak implies
forcing for ascent that is needed to maintain any convection across
the Delmarva today. Model forecast soundings support adding in a
slight chance for thunderstorms during peak heating. There is lesser
confidence for the development of upslope showers in our far western
zones in eastern PA but a mid-level shortwave trough could
potentially provide a brief period of deeper lift as it approaches
from the west this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
The center of the surface high retreats off the New England coast
tonight. However, the high will still control our weather pattern
with the ridge axis expected to extend southwestward from the high
in to the northern mid-Atlantic region. Surface winds will back from
easterly at the start of the period to northeasterly by early
morning as low pressure moves offshore.

There is a potential for marine stratus to advect inland tonight
owing to the onshore flow. These low clouds in addition to higher
convective debris clouds are anticipated to curb radiational
cooling, especially the closer you are to the coast. Forecast lows
are in the mid to upper 50s in northeast PA/ northwest NJ and low to
mid 60s elsewhere.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The weekend will be dry with high pres over the region. The high
will slowly move ewd and offshore by Mon. As the high departs, low
pres in Ontario will move ewd. Its attendant cdfnt will approach
from the w, and cross the area on Tue. The GFS then keeps things
dry Wed into Thu. However, the ECMWF (with some support from the
CMC) wants to bring a second front through on WEd and another
shot of precip, before drying things out later Wed into Thu. For
right now, will carry low pops Tue wino erly Wed and no pops
after that.

Temps look to be nr nrml with comfortable humidity values thru the
pd.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Brief/local MVFR restrictions is possible early this morning at ILG,
MIV or ACY if a shower moves over the terminal. Coverage of showers
are too low to include in 06Z TAFs but will issue amendments if
necessary. Additionally, brief visibility restrictions are possible
farther north if patchy fog develops toward sunrise. Otherwise,
expect mainly VFR today. Winds are currently light and variable, but
will become northeasterly around 5-10 kt after sunrise. Winds veer
to easterly this afternoon with speeds of 10-15 kt.

There is a potential for low clouds to develop offshore and move
inland late this evening and overnight. This may yield MVFR or IFR
restrictions. Forecast confidence decreases farther away from the
coast. Therefore, limited IFR restrictions in the forecast to MIV
and ACY.

Outlook...
Sat and Sun...Predominantly VFR. Patchy ground fog may lead to
sub-VFR conditions late Saturday night and early Sunday morning,
mainly at ABE, MIV, and RDG.  Moderate Confidence.

Mon and Mon night...VFR. High Confidence.

Tue...A cdfnt will move slowly acrs the region and be accompanied
by shra/tsra. VFR will prevail, then MVFR/IFR psbl with fropa.
Still some timing diffs with cfp. Moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Light onshore flow will develop this morning and increase to 10-15
kt with gusts to 20 kt this afternoon and tonight. Seas will
accordingly build to around 4 ft in our coastal Atlantic waters by
tonight. There is a potential for wave heights to approach 5 ft by
late tonight but confidence in this happening was too low to issue a
SCA at this time.

Outlook...
Sat...Latest guid indicates that we cud have sca conds with a e to
ne flow which cud linger into Sat night.

Sun thru Tue...No marine headlines anticipated.

RIP CURRENTS...Seas off the coast will build to 3-4 ft in
response to an onshore flow that develops this morning and
strengthens this afternoon. Medium-period southerly swells will be
around 2 or 3 ft. In this setup, the risk for the formation of
dangerous rip currents will approach moderate this afternoon.

Based on the expected wind, wave and swell conditions a moderate
risk for the development of dangerous rip currents may persist
into Saturday along the New Jersey shore and at the Delaware
Beaches.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Klein/Nierenberg
Near Term...Klein
Short Term...Klein
Long Term...Nierenberg
Aviation...Klein/Nierenberg
Marine...Klein/Nierenberg




000
FXUS61 KPHI 240757
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
357 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled front will remain near the Delmarva today before pushing
southward tonight. High pressure will build into the region for
this weekend. As the high moves offshore Monday, a slow moving
cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday, and move
through the region Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A cold front was located over the area (somewhere near the I-95
corridor) early this morning. The front was marked by surface winds
from the north or northeast and temps/dewpoints in the upper 50s to
lower 60s north of the boundary while southerly winds and
temps/dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s resided to the south.

There were isolated showers present for much of the night near the
frontal boundary in southern NJ and the northern Delmarva. These
showers have been very light thus far. Interestingly, the HRRR has
been remarkably persistent/consistent over the past five or so runs
(ending with the 05Z run) that showers and thunderstorms form over
the Delmarva early this morning, resulting in a localized area of
heavy rainfall of 2+ inches (the 03Z HRRR showed a band of 5-8 of
rainfall in 4 hours but successive runs have since backed off from
these extreme amounts). Though it`s an extremely unlikely scenario
that is not supported by other model guidance, LAPS/SPC mesoanalysis
shows about 500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE and a local PWAT maximum near 1.7
inches over the northern Delmarva, which would be enough to support
low-topped heavy rain producers in this environment. PoPs early this
morning were raised to about 40 percent across these southern zones.

The front will eventually push south of the area later this morning
and afternoon as high pressure build in from the Great Lakes. With
breaks in the clouds today, temperatures could peak in the mid 80s
along and west of I-95. An easterly wind off the ocean will keep
temperatures cooler (70s) in the coastal plain today. We could see a
fair amount of stratocu develop in this maritime airmass during the
afternoon.

While most of the CWA should remain dry today, there are two areas
for potential shower development this afternoon. First, the
juxtaposition of lower-tropospheric convergence at the nose of weak
easterly jet to the north of a H9-H8 trough and upper-tropospheric
divergence in the right entrance region of a jet streak implies
forcing for ascent that is needed to maintain any convection across
the Delmarva today. Model forecast soundings support adding in a
slight chance for thunderstorms during peak heating. There is lesser
confidence for the development of upslope showers in our far western
zones in eastern PA but a mid-level shortwave trough could
potentially provide a brief period of deeper lift as it approaches
from the west this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
The center of the surface high retreats off the New England coast
tonight. However, the high will still control our weather pattern
with the ridge axis expected to extend southwestward from the high
in to the northern mid-Atlantic region. Surface winds will back from
easterly at the start of the period to northeasterly by early
morning as low pressure moves offshore.

There is a potential for marine stratus to advect inland tonight
owing to the onshore flow. These low clouds in addition to higher
convective debris clouds are anticipated to curb radiational
cooling, especially the closer you are to the coast. Forecast lows
are in the mid to upper 50s in northeast PA/ northwest NJ and low to
mid 60s elsewhere.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The weekend will be dry with high pres over the region. The high
will slowly move ewd and offshore by Mon. As the high departs, low
pres in Ontario will move ewd. Its attendant cdfnt will approach
from the w, and cross the area on Tue. The GFS then keeps things
dry Wed into Thu. However, the ECMWF (with some support from the
CMC) wants to bring a second front through on WEd and another
shot of precip, before drying things out later Wed into Thu. For
right now, will carry low pops Tue wino erly Wed and no pops
after that.

Temps look to be nr nrml with comfortable humidity values thru the
pd.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Brief/local MVFR restrictions is possible early this morning at ILG,
MIV or ACY if a shower moves over the terminal. Coverage of showers
are too low to include in 06Z TAFs but will issue amendments if
necessary. Additionally, brief visibility restrictions are possible
farther north if patchy fog develops toward sunrise. Otherwise,
expect mainly VFR today. Winds are currently light and variable, but
will become northeasterly around 5-10 kt after sunrise. Winds veer
to easterly this afternoon with speeds of 10-15 kt.

There is a potential for low clouds to develop offshore and move
inland late this evening and overnight. This may yield MVFR or IFR
restrictions. Forecast confidence decreases farther away from the
coast. Therefore, limited IFR restrictions in the forecast to MIV
and ACY.

Outlook...
Sat and Sun...Predominantly VFR. Patchy ground fog may lead to
sub-VFR conditions late Saturday night and early Sunday morning,
mainly at ABE, MIV, and RDG.  Moderate Confidence.

Mon and Mon night...VFR. High Confidence.

Tue...A cdfnt will move slowly acrs the region and be accompanied
by shra/tsra. VFR will prevail, then MVFR/IFR psbl with fropa.
Still some timing diffs with cfp. Moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Light onshore flow will develop this morning and increase to 10-15
kt with gusts to 20 kt this afternoon and tonight. Seas will
accordingly build to around 4 ft in our coastal Atlantic waters by
tonight. There is a potential for wave heights to approach 5 ft by
late tonight but confidence in this happening was too low to issue a
SCA at this time.

Outlook...
Sat...Latest guid indicates that we cud have sca conds with a e to
ne flow which cud linger into Sat night.

Sun thru Tue...No marine headlines anticipated.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Nierenberg
Near Term...Klein
Short Term...Klein
Long Term...Nierenberg
Aviation...Klein/Nierenberg
Marine...Klein/Nierenberg




000
FXUS61 KPHI 240757
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
357 AM EDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalled front will remain near the Delmarva today before pushing
southward tonight. High pressure will build into the region for
this weekend. As the high moves offshore Monday, a slow moving
cold front will approach from the northwest Tuesday, and move
through the region Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
A cold front was located over the area (somewhere near the I-95
corridor) early this morning. The front was marked by surface winds
from the north or northeast and temps/dewpoints in the upper 50s to
lower 60s north of the boundary while southerly winds and
temps/dewpoints in the upper 60s to lower 70s resided to the south.

There were isolated showers present for much of the night near the
frontal boundary in southern NJ and the northern Delmarva. These
showers have been very light thus far. Interestingly, the HRRR has
been remarkably persistent/consistent over the past five or so runs
(ending with the 05Z run) that showers and thunderstorms form over
the Delmarva early this morning, resulting in a localized area of
heavy rainfall of 2+ inches (the 03Z HRRR showed a band of 5-8 of
rainfall in 4 hours but successive runs have since backed off from
these extreme amounts). Though it`s an extremely unlikely scenario
that is not supported by other model guidance, LAPS/SPC mesoanalysis
shows about 500-750 J/kg of MUCAPE and a local PWAT maximum near 1.7
inches over the northern Delmarva, which would be enough to support
low-topped heavy rain producers in this environment. PoPs early this
morning were raised to about 40 percent across these southern zones.

The front will eventually push south of the area later this morning
and afternoon as high pressure build in from the Great Lakes. With
breaks in the clouds today, temperatures could peak in the mid 80s
along and west of I-95. An easterly wind off the ocean will keep
temperatures cooler (70s) in the coastal plain today. We could see a
fair amount of stratocu develop in this maritime airmass during the
afternoon.

While most of the CWA should remain dry today, there are two areas
for potential shower development this afternoon. First, the
juxtaposition of lower-tropospheric convergence at the nose of weak
easterly jet to the north of a H9-H8 trough and upper-tropospheric
divergence in the right entrance region of a jet streak implies
forcing for ascent that is needed to maintain any convection across
the Delmarva today. Model forecast soundings support adding in a
slight chance for thunderstorms during peak heating. There is lesser
confidence for the development of upslope showers in our far western
zones in eastern PA but a mid-level shortwave trough could
potentially provide a brief period of deeper lift as it approaches
from the west this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
The center of the surface high retreats off the New England coast
tonight. However, the high will still control our weather pattern
with the ridge axis expected to extend southwestward from the high
in to the northern mid-Atlantic region. Surface winds will back from
easterly at the start of the period to northeasterly by early
morning as low pressure moves offshore.

There is a potential for marine stratus to advect inland tonight
owing to the onshore flow. These low clouds in addition to higher
convective debris clouds are anticipated to curb radiational
cooling, especially the closer you are to the coast. Forecast lows
are in the mid to upper 50s in northeast PA/ northwest NJ and low to
mid 60s elsewhere.



&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The weekend will be dry with high pres over the region. The high
will slowly move ewd and offshore by Mon. As the high departs, low
pres in Ontario will move ewd. Its attendant cdfnt will approach
from the w, and cross the area on Tue. The GFS then keeps things
dry Wed into Thu. However, the ECMWF (with some support from the
CMC) wants to bring a second front through on WEd and another
shot of precip, before drying things out later Wed into Thu. For
right now, will carry low pops Tue wino erly Wed and no pops
after that.

Temps look to be nr nrml with comfortable humidity values thru the
pd.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Brief/local MVFR restrictions is possible early this morning at ILG,
MIV or ACY if a shower moves over the terminal. Coverage of showers
are too low to include in 06Z TAFs but will issue amendments if
necessary. Additionally, brief visibility restrictions are possible
farther north if patchy fog develops toward sunrise. Otherwise,
expect mainly VFR today. Winds are currently light and variable, but
will become northeasterly around 5-10 kt after sunrise. Winds veer
to easterly this afternoon with speeds of 10-15 kt.

There is a potential for low clouds to develop offshore and move
inland late this evening and overnight. This may yield MVFR or IFR
restrictions. Forecast confidence decreases farther away from the
coast. Therefore, limited IFR restrictions in the forecast to MIV
and ACY.

Outlook...
Sat and Sun...Predominantly VFR. Patchy ground fog may lead to
sub-VFR conditions late Saturday night and early Sunday morning,
mainly at ABE, MIV, and RDG.  Moderate Confidence.

Mon and Mon night...VFR. High Confidence.

Tue...A cdfnt will move slowly acrs the region and be accompanied
by shra/tsra. VFR will prevail, then MVFR/IFR psbl with fropa.
Still some timing diffs with cfp. Moderate confidence.

&&

.MARINE...
Light onshore flow will develop this morning and increase to 10-15
kt with gusts to 20 kt this afternoon and tonight. Seas will
accordingly build to around 4 ft in our coastal Atlantic waters by
tonight. There is a potential for wave heights to approach 5 ft by
late tonight but confidence in this happening was too low to issue a
SCA at this time.

Outlook...
Sat...Latest guid indicates that we cud have sca conds with a e to
ne flow which cud linger into Sat night.

Sun thru Tue...No marine headlines anticipated.


&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Nierenberg
Near Term...Klein
Short Term...Klein
Long Term...Nierenberg
Aviation...Klein/Nierenberg
Marine...Klein/Nierenberg




000
FXUS61 KPHI 240129
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
929 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will remain nearly stationary near Delmarva through Friday,
as waves of low pressure move along it. The front will move
southward Friday night, as high pressure over New England builds
into the region for this weekend. As the high moves offshore
Monday, a slow moving cold front will approach from the northwest
Tuesday, and move through the region Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Front is less distinct now, but still over our region. Showers are
gradually diminishing in coverage as the boundary layer becomes
more stable.

High pressure will begin to build in from the north
later tonight. As a result of this, light winds, and recent rain
in some locations, expect patchy fog through the overnight hours.
Have already seen a few locations with reduced visibilities.
However, dry air advection is expected overnight, which will limit
how widespread the fog could be.

It will be seasonably cool overnight with lows in the low to mid
60s across the metro areas and the Delmarva and 50s across the Srn
Poconos and nrn NJ. Winds will be mostly light from the N or NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The high will continue to build in Friday. A E to NE surface winds
may bring some low level moisture off the ocean, so there may be
extra cloudiness across the area during the morning. The op models
and mos indicate some low chc pops for showers across the region.
It appears that the better chc will be across the Delmarva, away
from the onshore flow. I have therefore mentioned some chc pops
for those areas during the late morning and afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mid-level ridge will build over the middle Atlantic this weekend,
giving way to cyclonic flow aloft early next week, as the trough is
reestablished over the northeast conus. After a pleasant weekend,
there will be a renewed chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
Monday thru Wednesday time frame. Temperatures are expected to be at
or slightly above normal through the period, with uncomfortable
humidity levels anticipated by Tuesday.

Friday night thru Sunday...Dry. Clouds Saturday morning,
particularly over Delmarva, will move offshore for a mostly sunny
day. The column will dry out rapidly, given confluence aloft, as
the mid-level flow goes anticyclonic with the region within the
right front quadrant of the upper jet. In fact, it will be a
struggle to reach convective temperatures on Saturday and Sunday,
so cumulus should be limited. With the dry air mass in place and
clear skies, went below guidance on low temperatures Sunday
morning, especially at the typically good radiators. The surface
flow will generally be out of the east this weekend, which may
advect some slightly higher dew points well inland by Sunday
morning, with the setup favorable for patchy ground fog.

On Monday, the surface high moves southeast, as a lee trough is
established in advance of a cold front over the Great Lakes. This
will favor a southerly flow, with time sections indicating a rapid
increase in low level moisture during the day. The flow aloft also
becomes diffluent, with weak shortwaves traversing the mid Atlantic,
as the southern edge of the westerlies approach the region. This
will favor a chance of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms,
particularly northwest of I-95 in the evening, closer to the lee
trough and instability axis.

There will be a renewed chance of showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday, as a cold front moves into the region. There is general
model agreement that this front will become stationary across our
region on Tuesday as the mid-level trough approaches, and the
tropospheric flow veers, becoming increasingly parallel to the
front. As the right rear quadrant of the upper level jet approaches,
Bulk Shear will increase. However, there is uncertainty on the
placement of the front, and thus the instability axis. In fact,
the more favorable shear and instability may be dislocated. Thus,
there is still a lot of uncertainty with regard to how organized
and robust the convection will be.

The front is forecast to move offshore by Wednesday, as the mid-
level trough axis crosses the region, turning the large scale flow
westerly. There is disagreement in the 12Z/23 model suite with
regard to the timing of the front exiting the coast. For now, we
have maintained a slight chance of thundershowers on Wednesday,
in continuity with the previous forecast.

Fair weather is expected to return for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Showers are beginning to dissipate as of 01Z. Now the focus
shifts to fog potential overnight. Have already seen a few
locations with reduced visibilities. However, dry air advection
overnight should limit the coverage and duration of the fog. For
now think it is most likely at the more rural TAF sites including
KRDG, KABE, KMIV, and KACY. Once the fog dissipates near or
shortly after 12Z, expect VFR conditions to continue for the
remainder of the TAF period.

There is a front bisecting the region currently (as of 23Z, it was
in between KPHL and KPNE). North of this front, winds are
northerly. South of the front, winds are southwesterly. Expect the
front to slowly sag south, resulting in northerly and
northeasterly winds at all the TAF sites by 12Z.

Outlook...
Friday night...There is the potential for MVFR in low clouds and
SHRA at ACY and MIV, otherwise, VFR at the remainder of the TAF
sites.

Saturday and Sunday...Predominantly VFR. Patchy ground fog may lead
to sub-VFR conditions late Saturday night and early Sunday morning,
mainly at ABE, MIV, and RDG.

Monday and Monday night...Predominately VFR. MVFR possible in
isolated SHRA/TSRA northwest of ACY and MIV, mainly Monday evening.

Tuesday...More widespread SHRA/TSRA across the TAF sites may lead
to MVFR at times. Otherwise, predominantly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds tonight should remain mostly around 10 knots or less and
seas (ocean) mostly 2 to 3 ft tonight. Friday will become NE to E
and increase to near 15 knots and seas will increase a bit to 3
to 4 ft.

RIP CURRENTS...With an onshore flow developing, and seas near 4
feet, the risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents could
be moderate by tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook...
A persistent onshore flow will be established in the Friday night
thru Sunday period. This will peak Friday night into Saturday,
particularly the southern NJ and DE coastal waters. The guidance
has trended upwards over the past 24 hours in terms of winds, but
is still sub-SCA. Nevertheless, northeast winds may briefly reach
SCA criteria late Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon, as
3-hourly pressure rises maximize, particularly over the southern
NJ and DE coastal waters. Confidence is not high enough for a SCA
at this point in the forecast, but this potential will need to be
reevaluated. Otherwise, with the persistent onshore flow, seas
will build to the 3-4FT range.

Looking ahead to the Sunday night thru Tuesday period, winds are
anticipated to remain below SCA criteria attm.

RIP CURRENTS: Based on the expected wind, wave and swell conditions
a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip currents may
persist into Saturday along the New Jersey shore and at the
Delaware Beaches.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Franck
Near Term...Johnson/O`Hara
Short Term...O`Hara
Long Term...Franck
Aviation...Franck/Johnson/O`Hara
Marine...Franck/Johnson/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPHI 240040
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
840 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will remain nearly stationary near Delmarva through Friday,
as waves of low pressure move along it. The front will move
southward Friday night, as high pressure over New England builds
into the region for this weekend. As the high moves offshore
Monday, a slow moving cold front will approach from the northwest
Tuesday, and move through the region Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Front has stalled out directly over the region, almost perfectly
bisecting Philly in half (at 23Z, the wind direction at KPNE and
KPHL were exactly 180 degrees different). A cluster of showers and
thunderstorms is moving along the front now resulting in locally
heavy rain. Expect showers and thunderstorms to continue for a few
more hours before becoming more limited in coverage, especially
north of the front where onshore flow will lead to a stable
boundary layer.

High pressure will begin to build in from the north
later tonight. Patchy fog could develop with visibilities
possibly dropping into the 3-4 sm range in some areas. It will be
seasonably cool overnight with lows in the low to mid 60s across
the metro areas and the Delmarva and 50s across the Srn Poconos
and nrn NJ. Winds will be mostly light from the N or NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The high will continue to build in Friday. A E to NE surface winds
may bring some low level moisture off the ocean, so there may be
extra cloudiness across the area during the morning. The op models
and mos indicate some low chc pops for showers across the region.
It appears that the better chc will be across the Delmarva, away
from the onshore flow. I have therefore mentioned some chc pops
for those areas during the late morning and afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mid-level ridge will build over the middle Atlantic this weekend,
giving way to cyclonic flow aloft early next week, as the trough is
reestablished over the northeast conus. After a pleasant weekend,
there will be a renewed chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
Monday thru Wednesday time frame. Temperatures are expected to be at
or slightly above normal through the period, with uncomfortable
humidity levels anticipated by Tuesday.

Friday night thru Sunday...Dry. Clouds Saturday morning,
particularly over Delmarva, will move offshore for a mostly sunny
day. The column will dry out rapidly, given confluence aloft, as
the mid-level flow goes anticyclonic with the region within the
right front quadrant of the upper jet. In fact, it will be a
struggle to reach convective temperatures on Saturday and Sunday,
so cumulus should be limited. With the dry air mass in place and
clear skies, went below guidance on low temperatures Sunday
morning, especially at the typically good radiators. The surface
flow will generally be out of the east this weekend, which may
advect some slightly higher dew points well inland by Sunday
morning, with the setup favorable for patchy ground fog.

On Monday, the surface high moves southeast, as a lee trough is
established in advance of a cold front over the Great Lakes. This
will favor a southerly flow, with time sections indicating a rapid
increase in low level moisture during the day. The flow aloft also
becomes diffluent, with weak shortwaves traversing the mid Atlantic,
as the southern edge of the westerlies approach the region. This
will favor a chance of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms,
particularly northwest of I-95 in the evening, closer to the lee
trough and instability axis.

There will be a renewed chance of showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday, as a cold front moves into the region. There is general
model agreement that this front will become stationary across our
region on Tuesday as the mid-level trough approaches, and the
tropospheric flow veers, becoming increasingly parallel to the
front. As the right rear quadrant of the upper level jet approaches,
Bulk Shear will increase. However, there is uncertainty on the
placement of the front, and thus the instability axis. In fact,
the more favorable shear and instability may be dislocated. Thus,
there is still a lot of uncertainty with regard to how organized
and robust the convection will be.

The front is forecast to move offshore by Wednesday, as the mid-
level trough axis crosses the region, turning the large scale flow
westerly. There is disagreement in the 12Z/23 model suite with
regard to the timing of the front exiting the coast. For now, we
have maintained a slight chance of thundershowers on Wednesday,
in continuity with the previous forecast.

Fair weather is expected to return for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Area of shra and tsra could affect KRDG, KPHL, KILG, and KMIV over
the next few hours. After that, focus shifts to fog potential
overnight (generally between 08 and 12Z). Threat for fog and low
clouds has decreased with the latest guidance, but still think
patchy fog is likely primarily for the more rural TAF sites. Once
the fog dissipates, expect VFR conditions to continue for the
remainder of the TAF period.

There is a front bisecting the region currently (as of 23Z, it was
in between KPHL and KPNE). North of this front, winds are
northerly. South of the front, winds are southwesterly. Expect the
front to slowly sag south, resulting in northerly and
northeasterly winds at all the TAF sites by 12Z.

Outlook...
Friday night...There is the potential for MVFR in low clouds and
SHRA at ACY and MIV, otherwise, VFR at the remainder of the TAF
sites.

Saturday and Sunday...Predominantly VFR. Patchy ground fog may lead
to sub-VFR conditions late Saturday night and early Sunday morning,
mainly at ABE, MIV, and RDG.

Monday and Monday night...Predominately VFR. MVFR possible in
isolated SHRA/TSRA northwest of ACY and MIV, mainly Monday evening.

Tuesday...More widespread SHRA/TSRA across the TAF sites may lead
to MVFR at times. Otherwise, predominantly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds tonight should remain mostly around 10 knots or less and
seas (ocean) mostly 2 to 3 ft tonight. Friday will become NE to E
and increase to near 15 knots and seas will increase a bit to 3
to 4 ft.

RIP CURRENTS...With an onshore flow developing, and seas near 4
feet, the risk for the formation of dangerous rip currents could
be moderate by tomorrow afternoon.

Outlook...
A persistent onshore flow will be established in the Friday night
thru Sunday period. This will peak Friday night into Saturday,
particularly the southern NJ and DE coastal waters. The guidance
has trended upwards over the past 24 hours in terms of winds, but
is still sub-SCA. Nevertheless, northeast winds may briefly reach
SCA criteria late Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon, as
3-hourly pressure rises maximize, particularly over the southern
NJ and DE coastal waters. Confidence is not high enough for a SCA
at this point in the forecast, but this potential will need to be
reevaluated. Otherwise, with the persistent onshore flow, seas
will build to the 3-4FT range.

Looking ahead to the Sunday night thru Tuesday period, winds are
anticipated to remain below SCA criteria attm.

RIP CURRENTS: Based on the expected wind, wave and swell conditions
a moderate risk for the development of dangerous rip currents may
persist into Saturday along the New Jersey shore and at the
Delaware Beaches.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Franck
Near Term...Johnson/O`Hara
Short Term...O`Hara
Long Term...Franck
Aviation...Franck/Johnson/O`Hara
Marine...Franck/Johnson/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPHI 232324
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
724 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will remain nearly stationary near Delmarva through Friday,
as waves of low pressure move along it. The front will move
southward Friday night, as high pressure over New England builds
into the region for this weekend. As the high moves offshore
Monday, a slow moving cold front will approach from the northwest
Tuesday, and move through the region Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Front has stalled out directly over the region, almost perfectly
bisecting Philly in half (at 23Z, the wind direction at KPNE and
KPHL were exactly 180 degrees different). A cluster of showers and
thunderstorms is moving along the front now resulting in locally
heavy rain. Expect showers and thunderstorms to continue for a few
more hours before becoming more limited in coverage, especially
north of the front where onshore flow will lead to a stable
boundary layer.

High pressure will begin to build in from the north
later tonight. Patchy fog could develop with visibilities
possibly dropping into the 3-4 sm range in some areas. It will be
seasonably cool overnight with lows in the low to mid 60s across
the metro areas and the Delmarva and 50s across the Srn Poconos
and nrn NJ. Winds will be mostly light from the N or NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The high will continue to build in Friday. A E to NE surface winds
may bring some low level moisture off the ocean, so there may be
extra cloudiness across the area during the morning. The op models
and mos indicate some low chc pops for showers across the region.
It appears that the better chc will be across the Delmarva, away
from the onshore flow. I have therefore mentioned some chc pops
for those areas during the late morning and afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mid-level ridge will build over the middle Atlantic this weekend,
giving way to cyclonic flow aloft early next week, as the trough is
reestablished over the northeast conus. After a pleasant weekend,
there will be a renewed chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
Monday thru Wednesday time frame. Temperatures are expected to be at
or slightly above normal through the period, with uncomfortable
humidity levels anticipated by Tuesday.

Friday night thru Sunday...Dry. Clouds Saturday morning,
particularly over Delmarva, will move offshore for a mostly sunny
day. The column will dry out rapidly, given confluence aloft, as
the mid-level flow goes anticyclonic with the region within the
right front quadrant of the upper jet. In fact, it will be a
struggle to reach convective temperatures on Saturday and Sunday,
so cumulus should be limited. With the dry air mass in place and
clear skies, went below guidance on low temperatures Sunday
morning, especially at the typically good radiators. The surface
flow will generally be out of the east this weekend, which may
advect some slightly higher dew points well inland by Sunday
morning, with the setup favorable for patchy ground fog.

On Monday, the surface high moves southeast, as a lee trough is
established in advance of a cold front over the Great Lakes. This
will favor a southerly flow, with time sections indicating a rapid
increase in low level moisture during the day. The flow aloft also
becomes diffluent, with weak shortwaves traversing the mid Atlantic,
as the southern edge of the westerlies approach the region. This
will favor a chance of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms,
particularly northwest of I-95 in the evening, closer to the lee
trough and instability axis.

There will be a renewed chance of showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday, as a cold front moves into the region. There is general
model agreement that this front will become stationary across our
region on Tuesday as the mid-level trough approaches, and the
tropospheric flow veers, becoming increasingly parallel to the
front. As the right rear quadrant of the upper level jet approaches,
Bulk Shear will increase. However, there is uncertainty on the
placement of the front, and thus the instability axis. In fact,
the more favorable shear and instability may be dislocated. Thus,
there is still a lot of uncertainty with regard to how organized
and robust the convection will be.

The front is forecast to move offshore by Wednesday, as the mid-
level trough axis crosses the region, turning the large scale flow
westerly. There is disagreement in the 12Z/23 model suite with
regard to the timing of the front exiting the coast. For now, we
have maintained a slight chance of thundershowers on Wednesday,
in continuity with the previous forecast.

Fair weather is expected to return for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Area of shra and tsra could affect KRDG, KPHL, KILG, and KMIV over
the next few hours. After that, focus shifts to fog potential
overnight (generally between 08 and 12Z). Threat for fog and low
clouds has decreased with the latest guidance, but still think
patchy fog is likely primarily for the more rural TAF sites. Once
the fog dissipates, expect VFR conditions to continue for the
remainder of the TAF period.

There is a front bisecting the region currently (as of 23Z, it was
in between KPHL and KPNE). North of this front, winds are
northerly. South of the front, winds are southwesterly. Expect the
front to slowly sag south, resulting in northerly and
northeasterly winds at all the TAF sites by 12Z.

Outlook...
Friday night...There is the potential for MVFR in low clouds and
SHRA at ACY and MIV, otherwise, VFR at the remainder of the TAF
sites.

Saturday and Sunday...Predominantly VFR. Patchy ground fog may lead
to sub-VFR conditions late Saturday night and early Sunday morning,
mainly at ABE, MIV, and RDG.

Monday and Monday night...Predominately VFR. MVFR possible in
isolated SHRA/TSRA northwest of ACY and MIV, mainly Monday evening.

Tuesday...More widespread SHRA/TSRA across the TAF sites may lead
to MVFR at times. Otherwise, predominantly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Except for some scattered showers and perhaps a tstm on the
waters this evening, the weather on the waters will be rather
uneventful thru Friday. Winds tonight should remain mostly around
10 knots or less and seas (ocean) mostly 2 to 3 ft tonight. Friday
will become NE to E and increase to more like 10 to 15 knots and
seas will increase a bit to 3 to 4 ft.

Outlook...
A persistent onshore flow will be established in the Friday night
thru Sunday period. This will peak Friday night into Saturday,
particularly the southern NJ and DE coastal waters. The guidance
has trended upwards over the past 24 hours in terms of winds, but
is still sub-SCA. Nevertheless, northeast winds may briefly reach
SCA criteria late Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon, as
3-hourly pressure rises maximize, particularly over the southern
NJ and DE coastal waters. Confidence is not high enough for a SCA
at this point in the forecast, but this potential will need to be
reevaluated. Otherwise, with the persistent onshore flow, seas
will build to the 3-4FT range.

Looking ahead to the Sunday night thru Tuesday period, winds are
anticipated to remain below SCA criteria attm.

RIP CURRENTS: Based on the expected wind, wave and swell conditions
we are anticipating a moderate risk for the development of dangerous
rip currents for Saturday along the New Jersey shore and at the
Delaware Beaches.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Franck
Near Term...Johnson/O`Hara
Short Term...O`Hara
Long Term...Franck
Aviation...Franck/Johnson/O`Hara
Marine...Franck/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPHI 232324
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
724 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will remain nearly stationary near Delmarva through Friday,
as waves of low pressure move along it. The front will move
southward Friday night, as high pressure over New England builds
into the region for this weekend. As the high moves offshore
Monday, a slow moving cold front will approach from the northwest
Tuesday, and move through the region Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
Front has stalled out directly over the region, almost perfectly
bisecting Philly in half (at 23Z, the wind direction at KPNE and
KPHL were exactly 180 degrees different). A cluster of showers and
thunderstorms is moving along the front now resulting in locally
heavy rain. Expect showers and thunderstorms to continue for a few
more hours before becoming more limited in coverage, especially
north of the front where onshore flow will lead to a stable
boundary layer.

High pressure will begin to build in from the north
later tonight. Patchy fog could develop with visibilities
possibly dropping into the 3-4 sm range in some areas. It will be
seasonably cool overnight with lows in the low to mid 60s across
the metro areas and the Delmarva and 50s across the Srn Poconos
and nrn NJ. Winds will be mostly light from the N or NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The high will continue to build in Friday. A E to NE surface winds
may bring some low level moisture off the ocean, so there may be
extra cloudiness across the area during the morning. The op models
and mos indicate some low chc pops for showers across the region.
It appears that the better chc will be across the Delmarva, away
from the onshore flow. I have therefore mentioned some chc pops
for those areas during the late morning and afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mid-level ridge will build over the middle Atlantic this weekend,
giving way to cyclonic flow aloft early next week, as the trough is
reestablished over the northeast conus. After a pleasant weekend,
there will be a renewed chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
Monday thru Wednesday time frame. Temperatures are expected to be at
or slightly above normal through the period, with uncomfortable
humidity levels anticipated by Tuesday.

Friday night thru Sunday...Dry. Clouds Saturday morning,
particularly over Delmarva, will move offshore for a mostly sunny
day. The column will dry out rapidly, given confluence aloft, as
the mid-level flow goes anticyclonic with the region within the
right front quadrant of the upper jet. In fact, it will be a
struggle to reach convective temperatures on Saturday and Sunday,
so cumulus should be limited. With the dry air mass in place and
clear skies, went below guidance on low temperatures Sunday
morning, especially at the typically good radiators. The surface
flow will generally be out of the east this weekend, which may
advect some slightly higher dew points well inland by Sunday
morning, with the setup favorable for patchy ground fog.

On Monday, the surface high moves southeast, as a lee trough is
established in advance of a cold front over the Great Lakes. This
will favor a southerly flow, with time sections indicating a rapid
increase in low level moisture during the day. The flow aloft also
becomes diffluent, with weak shortwaves traversing the mid Atlantic,
as the southern edge of the westerlies approach the region. This
will favor a chance of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms,
particularly northwest of I-95 in the evening, closer to the lee
trough and instability axis.

There will be a renewed chance of showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday, as a cold front moves into the region. There is general
model agreement that this front will become stationary across our
region on Tuesday as the mid-level trough approaches, and the
tropospheric flow veers, becoming increasingly parallel to the
front. As the right rear quadrant of the upper level jet approaches,
Bulk Shear will increase. However, there is uncertainty on the
placement of the front, and thus the instability axis. In fact,
the more favorable shear and instability may be dislocated. Thus,
there is still a lot of uncertainty with regard to how organized
and robust the convection will be.

The front is forecast to move offshore by Wednesday, as the mid-
level trough axis crosses the region, turning the large scale flow
westerly. There is disagreement in the 12Z/23 model suite with
regard to the timing of the front exiting the coast. For now, we
have maintained a slight chance of thundershowers on Wednesday,
in continuity with the previous forecast.

Fair weather is expected to return for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
The following discussion is for KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY and surrounding areas.

Area of shra and tsra could affect KRDG, KPHL, KILG, and KMIV over
the next few hours. After that, focus shifts to fog potential
overnight (generally between 08 and 12Z). Threat for fog and low
clouds has decreased with the latest guidance, but still think
patchy fog is likely primarily for the more rural TAF sites. Once
the fog dissipates, expect VFR conditions to continue for the
remainder of the TAF period.

There is a front bisecting the region currently (as of 23Z, it was
in between KPHL and KPNE). North of this front, winds are
northerly. South of the front, winds are southwesterly. Expect the
front to slowly sag south, resulting in northerly and
northeasterly winds at all the TAF sites by 12Z.

Outlook...
Friday night...There is the potential for MVFR in low clouds and
SHRA at ACY and MIV, otherwise, VFR at the remainder of the TAF
sites.

Saturday and Sunday...Predominantly VFR. Patchy ground fog may lead
to sub-VFR conditions late Saturday night and early Sunday morning,
mainly at ABE, MIV, and RDG.

Monday and Monday night...Predominately VFR. MVFR possible in
isolated SHRA/TSRA northwest of ACY and MIV, mainly Monday evening.

Tuesday...More widespread SHRA/TSRA across the TAF sites may lead
to MVFR at times. Otherwise, predominantly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Except for some scattered showers and perhaps a tstm on the
waters this evening, the weather on the waters will be rather
uneventful thru Friday. Winds tonight should remain mostly around
10 knots or less and seas (ocean) mostly 2 to 3 ft tonight. Friday
will become NE to E and increase to more like 10 to 15 knots and
seas will increase a bit to 3 to 4 ft.

Outlook...
A persistent onshore flow will be established in the Friday night
thru Sunday period. This will peak Friday night into Saturday,
particularly the southern NJ and DE coastal waters. The guidance
has trended upwards over the past 24 hours in terms of winds, but
is still sub-SCA. Nevertheless, northeast winds may briefly reach
SCA criteria late Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon, as
3-hourly pressure rises maximize, particularly over the southern
NJ and DE coastal waters. Confidence is not high enough for a SCA
at this point in the forecast, but this potential will need to be
reevaluated. Otherwise, with the persistent onshore flow, seas
will build to the 3-4FT range.

Looking ahead to the Sunday night thru Tuesday period, winds are
anticipated to remain below SCA criteria attm.

RIP CURRENTS: Based on the expected wind, wave and swell conditions
we are anticipating a moderate risk for the development of dangerous
rip currents for Saturday along the New Jersey shore and at the
Delaware Beaches.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Franck
Near Term...Johnson/O`Hara
Short Term...O`Hara
Long Term...Franck
Aviation...Franck/Johnson/O`Hara
Marine...Franck/O`Hara




000
FXUS61 KPHI 231930
AFDPHI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Mount Holly NJ
330 PM EDT THU JUN 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will remain nearly stationary near Delmarva through Friday,
as waves of low pressure move along it. The front will move
southward Friday night, as high pressure over New England builds
into the region for this weekend. As the high moves offshore
Monday, a slow moving cold front will approach from the northwest
Tuesday, and move through the region Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
High pressure will begin to build in from the north
later tonight. Before this happens, scattered showers and perhaps a
tstm will affect the area with the waning instability of the day
this evening. After the showers diminish, skies will become partly
cloudy. Patchy fog will develop with visibilities possibly dropping
into the 3-4 sm range in some areas. It will be seasonably cool
overnight with lows in the low to mid 60s across the metro areas and
the Delmarva and 50s across the Srn Poconos and nrn NJ. Winds will
be mostly light from the N or NE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
The high will continue to build in Friday. A E to NE surface winds
may bring some low level moisture off the ocean, so there may be
extra cloudiness across the area during the morning. The op models
and mos indicate some low chc pops for showers across the region.
It appears that the better chc will be across the Delmarva, away
from the onshore flow. I have therefore mentioned some chc pops
for those areas during the late morning and afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A mid-level ridge will build over the middle Atlantic this weekend,
giving way to cyclonic flow aloft early next week, as the trough is
reestablished over the northeast conus. After a pleasant weekend,
there will be a renewed chance of showers and thunderstorms in the
Monday thru Wednesday time frame. Temperatures are expected to be at
or slightly above normal through the period, with uncomfortable
humidity levels anticipated by Tuesday.

Friday night thru Sunday...Dry. Clouds Saturday morning,
particularly over Delmarva, will move offshore for a mostly sunny
day. The column will dry out rapidly, given confluence aloft, as
the mid-level flow goes anticyclonic with the region within the
right front quadrant of the upper jet. In fact, it will be a
struggle to reach convective temperatures on Saturday and Sunday,
so cumulus should be limited. With the dry air mass in place and
clear skies, went below guidance on low temperatures Sunday
morning, especially at the typically good radiators. The surface
flow will generally be out of the east this weekend, which may
advect some slightly higher dew points well inland by Sunday
morning, with the setup favorable for patchy ground fog.

On Monday, the surface high moves southeast, as a lee trough is
established in advance of a cold front over the Great Lakes. This
will favor a southerly flow, with time sections indicating a rapid
increase in low level moisture during the day. The flow aloft also
becomes diffluent, with weak shortwaves traversing the mid Atlantic,
as the southern edge of the westerlies approach the region. This
will favor a chance of diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms,
particularly northwest of I-95 in the evening, closer to the lee
trough and instability axis.

There will be a renewed chance of showers and thunderstorms on
Tuesday, as a cold front moves into the region. There is general
model agreement that this front will become stationary across our
region on Tuesday as the mid-level trough approaches, and the
tropospheric flow veers, becoming increasingly parallel to the
front. As the right rear quadrant of the upper level jet approaches,
Bulk Shear will increase. However, there is uncertainty on the
placement of the front, and thus the instability axis. In fact,
the more favorable shear and instability may be dislocated. Thus,
there is still a lot of uncertainty with regard to how organized
and robust the convection will be.

The front is forecast to move offshore by Wednesday, as the mid-
level trough axis crosses the region, turning the large scale flow
westerly. There is disagreement in the 12Z/23 model suite with
regard to the timing of the front exiting the coast. For now, we
have maintained a slight chance of thundershowers on Wednesday,
in continuity with the previous forecast.

Fair weather is expected to return for Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

Scattered showers and perhaps a tstm are developing across Berks
county and the Lehigh valley as of the mid afternoon and these
should sweep e-se through the early evening. These could affect
some of the delaware Valley terminals shortly, but the confid in
this is low and the areas coverage should be low as well. We have
opted to VCSH a few of them with the 18z issuance. Amds expected.
Winds will be shifting more wrly then nwrly through the early
evening. Tonight...showers diminish and winds become light. Patchy
fog expected and this is included in the tafs. Fri...An erly or
nerly flow may bring some lower clouds across the area during the
morning. Probably will remain VFR, but somewhat uncertain.

Outlook...
Friday night...There is the potential for MVFR in low clouds and
SHRA at ACY and MIV, otherwise, VFR at the remainder of the TAF
sites.

Saturday and Sunday...Predominantly VFR. Patchy ground fog may lead
to sub-VFR conditions late Saturday night and early Sunday morning,
mainly at ABE, MIV, and RDG.

Monday and Monday night...Predominately VFR. MVFR possible in
isolated SHRA/TSRA northwest of ACY and MIV, mainly Monday evening.

Tuesday...More widespread SHRA/TSRA across the TAF sites may lead
to MVFR at times. Otherwise, predominantly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Except for some scattered showers and perhaps a tstm on the
waters this evening, the weather on the waters will be rather
uneventful thru Friday. Winds tonight should remain mostly around
10 knots or less and seas (ocean) mostly 2 to 3 ft tonight. Friday
will become NE to E and increase to more like 10 to 15 knots and
seas will increase a bit to 3 to 4 ft.

Outlook...
A persistent onshore flow will be established in the Friday night
thru Sunday period. This will peak Friday night into Saturday,
particularly the southern NJ and DE coastal waters. The guidance
has trended upwards over the past 24 hours in terms of winds, but
is still sub-SCA. Nevertheless, northeast winds may briefly reach
SCA criteria late Saturday morning into Saturday afternoon, as
3-hourly pressure rises maximize, particularly over the southern
NJ and DE coastal waters. Confidence is not high enough for a SCA
at this point in the forecast, but this potential will need to be
reevaluated. Otherwise, with the persistent onshore flow, seas
will build to the 3-4FT range.

Looking ahead to the Sunday night thru Tuesday period, winds are
anticipated to remain below SCA criteria attm.

RIP CURRENTS: Based on the expected wind, wave and swell conditions
we are anticipating a moderate risk for the development of dangerous
rip currents for Saturday along the New Jersey shore and at the
Delaware Beaches.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NJ...None.
DE...None.
MD...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
Synopsis...Franck
Near Term...O`Hara
Short Term...O`Hara
Long Term...Franck
Aviation...Franck/O`Hara
Marine...Franck/O`Hara




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