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000
FXUS61 KPHI 040812
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
412 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GRTLKS AND OH VLY. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AND NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W TO E ACROSS VA. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...HWVR THE
BEST CHC FOR THE EARLY MORN HOURS LOOKS TO BE N/W OF PHL BASED ON
THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRES MOVES EAST OF
DELMARVA...POPS MAY BE MORE LIKELY S/E BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
AT THIS TIME. CLOUD AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE
UPPER 60S N/W AND MID 70S S/E. CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE
FROM W TO E FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORCING FOR UVV MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. HWVR CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AS DRIER AIR WILL
BE SMWHT SLOW TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW. &&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONT MOVING EWD AND OFFSHORE
BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE DARK ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS TO PROCEED.
EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT WITH THE DRIER
AIR COMING IN. WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ALLOWING FOR MIN TEMPS
GENLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S IN DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A WEAK WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 MEX BLENDED WITH EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M TEMPS
PREVAILED.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75 TO
TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT
INDEX ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKYCOVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAYS PROBABLE SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN SOMEWHAT AFTER DAYBREAK AS
AREAS OF SHOWERS DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE AHEAD
OF A SHRTWV TROF MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VLY. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE FROM MID/LATE AFTN ON INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT LIGHT
SE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME AND BACK TO THE NE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS
LATER THIS MORNING S OF DELMARVA AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY
WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE E AND NE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST OF DELMARVA. WIND
SPEED AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME NLY
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRES MOVES AWAY AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
OF THIS WRITING. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT (SATURDAY EVENING). WHILE SOME TIDAL LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC 412
SHORT TERM...AMC 412
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...412
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040812
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
412 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE UPPER LEVEL TROF IS PROGRESSING SLOWLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE
GRTLKS AND OH VLY. EXTENSIVE MID CLOUDS AND AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE
SPREAD ACROSS THE FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE TROF AND NORTH OF THE QUASI-
STNRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING W TO E ACROSS VA. SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...HWVR THE
BEST CHC FOR THE EARLY MORN HOURS LOOKS TO BE N/W OF PHL BASED ON
THE REGIONAL RADAR LOOP. LATER IN THE DAY AS LOW PRES MOVES EAST OF
DELMARVA...POPS MAY BE MORE LIKELY S/E BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
AT THIS TIME. CLOUD AND SHOWERS TODAY WILL LIMIT MAX TEMPS TO THE
UPPER 60S N/W AND MID 70S S/E. CHANCE FOR PRECIP SHOULD DECREASE
FROM W TO E FROM MID AFTERNOON ONWARD AS FORCING FOR UVV MOVES
AWAY FROM THE AREA. HWVR CLOUDINESS WILL LINGER AS DRIER AIR WILL
BE SMWHT SLOW TO FILTER IN BEHIND THE LOW. &&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
FOR TONIGHT...THE UPPER TROF AXIS WILL CONT MOVING EWD AND OFFSHORE
BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH DRIER AIR FILTERING IN BEHIND IT. WEAK HIGH
PRES WILL BUILD IN AT THE SFC. ANY LINGERING SHOWERS NEAR THE COAST
SHOULD MOVE OUT BEFORE DARK ALLOWING FOR FIREWORKS TO PROCEED.
EVENING CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR FROM THE NW OVER NIGHT WITH THE DRIER
AIR COMING IN. WIND WILL BE RATHER LIGHT ALLOWING FOR MIN TEMPS
GENLY IN THE 50S EXCEPT 60S IN DELMARVA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A WEAK WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 MEX BLENDED WITH EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M TEMPS
PREVAILED.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75 TO
TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT
INDEX ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKYCOVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAYS PROBABLE SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL WORSEN SOMEWHAT AFTER DAYBREAK AS
AREAS OF SHOWERS DEVELOP/SPREAD ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS ARE AHEAD
OF A SHRTWV TROF MOVING EAST FROM THE OHIO VLY. THERE WILL BE
PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. CONDS
SHOULD IMPROVE FROM MID/LATE AFTN ON INTO THE EVENING. CURRENT LIGHT
SE WINDS WILL INCREASE SOME AND BACK TO THE NE AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS
LATER THIS MORNING S OF DELMARVA AND THEN MOVES OFFSHORE.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY
WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
SE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BACK TO THE E AND NE LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTN AS LOW PRES DEVELOPS EAST OF DELMARVA. WIND
SPEED AND WAVES WILL INCREASE SOME TODAY BUT ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW SCA LEVELS. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE AND BECOME NLY
TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRES MOVES AWAY AND WEAK HIGH PRES BUILDS IN.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY NIGHT THRU WEDNESDAY...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS
OF THIS WRITING. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT (SATURDAY EVENING). WHILE SOME TIDAL LOCATIONS MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN
BELOW ADVISORY THRESHOLD.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG
NEAR TERM...AMC 412
SHORT TERM...AMC 412
LONG TERM...DRAG
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG
MARINE...AMC/DRAG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...412
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 040805
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY-
TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. MOISTURE IS STREAMING AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH NEAR THE
VA-NC BORDER.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS EVENING SHOWED A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVER WESTERN PA/VA/CENTRAL MD THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA FROM A LEADING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. POPS THRU TONIGHT CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST
HRRR, RAP AND NCEP WRF-NMM, WHICH SEEM TO HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS THUS FAR. PRECIP IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN SHORE OF MD
THIS EVE, DELAWARE CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT AND EASTERN PA/NJ LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

THE BEST LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED ON THE
COOL/STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN
THE MID AND LOW-LEVELS. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE
STEADY OR HEAVY TONIGHT IN THIS SETUP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z/18Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL
COME BEFORE 21Z. THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN
A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE
FAVORED LIGHTER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE
ADVECTION WE WILL HAVE. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING LOOKS TO BE DWINDLING GIVEN THESE RECENT
TRENDS.

MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OUTDOOR 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES TO TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE
DAY. THE GROUND MAY BE DAMP THOUGH IN PARTS OF THE AREA THAT
RECEIVE THE STEADIER/HEAVIER RAINFALL (MOST LIKELY DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ).

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 70S ELSEWHERE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A WEAK WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 MEX BLENDED WITH EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M TEMPS
PREVAILED.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75 TO
TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT
INDEX ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKYCOVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAYS PROBABLE SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY
WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD TO NEAR
25 KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER,
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND HAVE CAPPED WINDS/SEAS JUST
BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS OF THIS
WRITING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME TIDAL SITES MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL
REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 404
NEAR TERM...AMC WILL UPDATE 412
SHORT TERM...AMC WILL UPDATE 412
LONG TERM...DRAG 404
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG 404
MARINE...AMC/DRAG 404
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...404
RIP CURRENTS...404




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040805
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
405 AM EDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA WILL MOVE OUT TO SEA
SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD BY THIS EVENING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWS
LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY, THEN SHIFTS OFFSHORE MONDAY. A WARM FRONT
MOVES SLOWLY NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY
WITH A COLD FRONT TO FOLLOW LATE WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY-
TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. MOISTURE IS STREAMING AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH NEAR THE
VA-NC BORDER.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS EVENING SHOWED A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVER WESTERN PA/VA/CENTRAL MD THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA FROM A LEADING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. POPS THRU TONIGHT CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST
HRRR, RAP AND NCEP WRF-NMM, WHICH SEEM TO HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS THUS FAR. PRECIP IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN SHORE OF MD
THIS EVE, DELAWARE CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT AND EASTERN PA/NJ LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

THE BEST LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED ON THE
COOL/STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN
THE MID AND LOW-LEVELS. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE
STEADY OR HEAVY TONIGHT IN THIS SETUP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SUNDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z/18Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL
COME BEFORE 21Z. THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN
A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE
FAVORED LIGHTER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE
ADVECTION WE WILL HAVE. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING LOOKS TO BE DWINDLING GIVEN THESE RECENT
TRENDS.

MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OUTDOOR 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES TO TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE
DAY. THE GROUND MAY BE DAMP THOUGH IN PARTS OF THE AREA THAT
RECEIVE THE STEADIER/HEAVIER RAINFALL (MOST LIKELY DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ).

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 70S ELSEWHERE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
500MB: A TROUGH CENTERED NEAR THE TENNESSEE VALLEY SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES TUESDAY. A WEAK WEST
SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS THEREAFTER WITH WEAK EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES.

TEMPERATURES: CALENDAR DAY TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL ON SUNDAY WARM TO ALMOST 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY.


FORECAST BASIS: UNLESS OTHERWISE NOTED, THIS 330 AM SATURDAY JULY
4TH FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50 50 BLEND OF THE 00Z/4 GFS/NAM MOS
GUIDANCE SUNDAY-MONDAY, 00Z/4 MEX MOS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY,
THEN THE 0521Z/4 WPC GRIDDED ELEMENTS OF MAX/MIN TEMP, 12 HOUR
POP, 6 HOUR DEWPOINT- SKY-WIND FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT
FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF MAX TEMPS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WHEN
THE 00Z/4 MEX BLENDED WITH EVEN WARMER 00Z/4 ECMWF 2M TEMPS
PREVAILED.

THE DAILIES...

SUNDAY...AFTER ANY EARLY MORNING PATCHY FOG DISSIPATES...SCT-BKN
AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND GUST 15 MPH.  CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

MONDAY....INCREASING CLOUDS. ST/FOG POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT?
SOUTH WIND GUST 15 MPH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

TUESDAY...AREAS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED TSTMS WITH PWAT OF 1.75 TO
TO 2 INCHES, MLCAPE 1200J, AND WEAK STEERING WHICH COULD MEAN
SEVERAL INTENSE TSTMS WITH EXCESSIVE SHORT DURATION RAINFALL (POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING FOR STARTERS). SOUTHERLY WIND GUST 20 MPH. NEAR
90F PHILLY AREA. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

WEDNESDAY...LIKELY A HOT DAY. TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE
APPROACHING AND EVENTUALLY SLOWING COLD FRONT. 1000J MLCAPE. COULD
BE STRONG TSTMS E PA. HEAT INDEX RIGHT NOW MODELED 99 PHL AND NEAR
100 DELMARVA. WILL BE REEVALUATED NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. NO HEAT
INDEX ACTION ATTM IN THE MORNING HWO. CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE.

THURSDAY...UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING BUT TSTMS ARE IN THE FCST WITH
ANOTHER SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. ALSO UNCERTAINTY ON TEMPS, DEPENDENT
ON TIMING CONVECTIVE RELATED SKYCOVER. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR
BELOW AVERAGE.

FRIDAY...PROBABLY DRYING OUT AFTER THURSDAYS PROBABLE SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SUNDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT. WEST WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING
THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY MVFR FOG POSSIBLE TO START THE DAY AND
AGAIN LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

MONDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT DURING THE DAY WITH A CHANCE OF
IFR ST/FOG LATE MONDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. SOUTHERLY
WIND MAX GUST 15 KT DURING THE AFTERNOON. HIGH CONFIDENCE.

TUESDAY...VFR SCT-BKN AOA 5000 FT WITH SCT TSTMS AND ASSTD BRIEF
IFR CONDS IN HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY E PA DURING THE AFTN-EVENING.
HIGH CONFIDENCE.

WED...VFR SCT-BKN WITH A PRETTY GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN OR NIGHTTIME
TSTMS. IFR CONDS POSSIBLE IN TSTMS. CONFIDENCE: AVERAGE OR ABOVE
AVERAGE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD TO NEAR
25 KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER,
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND HAVE CAPPED WINDS/SEAS JUST
BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.

OUTLOOK...

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED AS OF THIS
WRITING.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME TIDAL SITES MAY APPROACH
MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT DATA INDICATES THEY WILL
REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...DRAG 404
NEAR TERM...AMC WILL UPDATE 412
SHORT TERM...AMC WILL UPDATE 412
LONG TERM...DRAG 404
AVIATION...AMC/DRAG 404
MARINE...AMC/DRAG 404
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...404
RIP CURRENTS...404



000
FXUS61 KPHI 040130
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY-
TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. MOISTURE IS STREAMING AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH NEAR THE
VA-NC BORDER.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS EVENING SHOWED A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVER WESTERN PA/VA/CENTRAL MD THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA FROM A LEADING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. POPS THRU TONIGHT CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST
HRRR, RAP AND NCEP WRF-NMM, WHICH SEEM TO HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS THUS FAR. PRECIP IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN SHORE OF MD
THIS EVE, DELAWARE CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT AND EASTERN PA/NJ LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

THE BEST LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED ON THE
COOL/STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN
THE MID AND LOW-LEVELS. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE
STEADY OR HEAVY TONIGHT IN THIS SETUP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z/18Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL
COME BEFORE 21Z. THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN
A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE
FAVORED LIGHTER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE
ADVECTION WE WILL HAVE. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING LOOKS TO BE DWINDLING GIVEN THESE RECENT
TRENDS.

MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OUTDOOR 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES TO TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE
DAY. THE GROUND MAY BE DAMP THOUGH IN PARTS OF THE AREA THAT
RECEIVE THE STEADIER/HEAVIER RAINFALL (MOST LIKELY DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ).

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 70S ELSEWHERE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD TO NEAR
25 KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER,
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND HAVE CAPPED WINDS/SEAS JUST
BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON/KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040130
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY-
TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. MOISTURE IS STREAMING AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH NEAR THE
VA-NC BORDER.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS EVENING SHOWED A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVER WESTERN PA/VA/CENTRAL MD THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA FROM A LEADING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. POPS THRU TONIGHT CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST
HRRR, RAP AND NCEP WRF-NMM, WHICH SEEM TO HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS THUS FAR. PRECIP IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN SHORE OF MD
THIS EVE, DELAWARE CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT AND EASTERN PA/NJ LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

THE BEST LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED ON THE
COOL/STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN
THE MID AND LOW-LEVELS. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE
STEADY OR HEAVY TONIGHT IN THIS SETUP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z/18Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL
COME BEFORE 21Z. THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN
A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE
FAVORED LIGHTER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE
ADVECTION WE WILL HAVE. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING LOOKS TO BE DWINDLING GIVEN THESE RECENT
TRENDS.

MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OUTDOOR 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES TO TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE
DAY. THE GROUND MAY BE DAMP THOUGH IN PARTS OF THE AREA THAT
RECEIVE THE STEADIER/HEAVIER RAINFALL (MOST LIKELY DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ).

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 70S ELSEWHERE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD TO NEAR
25 KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER,
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND HAVE CAPPED WINDS/SEAS JUST
BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON/KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040130
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
930 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
THE EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A POSITIVELY-
TILTED UPPER TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST. MOISTURE IS STREAMING AHEAD
OF THE TROUGH FROM THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD
THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID-ATLANTIC COAST. AT THE SURFACE, A
STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS POSITIONED TO OUR SOUTH NEAR THE
VA-NC BORDER.

REGIONAL RADAR MOSAIC THIS EVENING SHOWED A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS TO
OUR SOUTH AND WEST OVER WESTERN PA/VA/CENTRAL MD THAT WAS
ASSOCIATED WITH DPVA FROM A LEADING MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AND ISENTROPIC LIFT. POPS THRU TONIGHT CLOSELY FOLLOW THE LATEST
HRRR, RAP AND NCEP WRF-NMM, WHICH SEEM TO HAVE HAD A GOOD HANDLE
ON THE PROGRESSION OF THESE SHOWERS THUS FAR. PRECIP IS GENERALLY
EXPECTED TO ADVANCE NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EASTERN SHORE OF MD
THIS EVE, DELAWARE CLOSE TO MIDNIGHT AND EASTERN PA/NJ LATE
TONIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING.

THE BEST LIFT WITH THE FRONT AND THE UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN
UPSTREAM OF THE AREA TONIGHT. THE CWA WILL BE LOCATED ON THE
COOL/STABLE SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. THERE IS SOME RESIDUAL DRY AIR IN
THE MID AND LOW-LEVELS. THEREFORE, DO NOT EXPECT THE PRECIP TO BE
STEADY OR HEAVY TONIGHT IN THIS SETUP.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z/18Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE
CASE THE LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER
SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL
COME BEFORE 21Z. THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN
A RATHER STABLE ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE
FAVORED LIGHTER AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE
ADVECTION WE WILL HAVE. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS, HEAVY
RAINFALL AND FLOODING LOOKS TO BE DWINDLING GIVEN THESE RECENT
TRENDS.

MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THIS TIMING MAY ALLOW FOR
SOME OUTDOOR 4TH OF JULY FESTIVITIES TO TAKE PLACE LATE IN THE
DAY. THE GROUND MAY BE DAMP THOUGH IN PARTS OF THE AREA THAT
RECEIVE THE STEADIER/HEAVIER RAINFALL (MOST LIKELY DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ).

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS AND 70S ELSEWHERE).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD TO NEAR
25 KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER,
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY AND HAVE CAPPED WINDS/SEAS JUST
BELOW SCA THRESHOLD.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS ON SATURDAY ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE GIVEN THE CONTINUED ONSHORE FLOW AND MODERATE
PERIOD SWELLS. THE RISK IS LOW FOR DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON/KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN



000
FXUS61 KPHI 040058
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
858 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH STILL RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE
THING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THAT WIND DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE WAS VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, RELATIVELY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH
WE MAY HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE BY 12Z, START OF
RAIN (OR AT LEAST INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAIN) MAY BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.
THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILL
HAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD NEAR 25
KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE. BY TOMORROW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
LIKELY FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 040058
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
858 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH STILL RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE
THING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THAT WIND DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE WAS VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, RELATIVELY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH
WE MAY HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE BY 12Z, START OF
RAIN (OR AT LEAST INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAIN) MAY BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.
THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILL
HAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD NEAR 25
KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE. BY TOMORROW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
LIKELY FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040058
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
858 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH STILL RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE
THING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THAT WIND DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE WAS VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, RELATIVELY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH
WE MAY HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE BY 12Z, START OF
RAIN (OR AT LEAST INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAIN) MAY BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.
THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILL
HAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD NEAR 25
KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE. BY TOMORROW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
LIKELY FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040058
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
858 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH STILL RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE
THING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THAT WIND DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE WAS VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, RELATIVELY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH
WE MAY HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE BY 12Z, START OF
RAIN (OR AT LEAST INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAIN) MAY BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.
THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILL
HAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD NEAR 25
KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE. BY TOMORROW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
LIKELY FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040058
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
858 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH STILL RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE
THING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THAT WIND DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE WAS VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, RELATIVELY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH
WE MAY HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE BY 12Z, START OF
RAIN (OR AT LEAST INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAIN) MAY BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.
THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILL
HAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD NEAR 25
KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE. BY TOMORROW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
LIKELY FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 040058
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
858 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH STILL RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE
THING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THAT WIND DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE WAS VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, RELATIVELY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH
WE MAY HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE BY 12Z, START OF
RAIN (OR AT LEAST INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAIN) MAY BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.
THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILL
HAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT WITH CEILINGS AOA
5,000 FEET. SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS MAY BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION BY 05Z WITH CHANCES INCREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
OVERNIGHT. THE STEADIEST AND HEAVIEST SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FROM
13-18Z SATURDAY, WHICH WILL CORRESPOND TO THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR
MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS FROM PHL/PNE TO THE SOUTHEAST. RDG AND ABE
COULD ESCAPE THE PROSPECTS FOR ANY MVFR RESTRICTIONS. ACY HAS
HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD TO SEE MVFR CONDITIONS WITH THE SLOWEST RISE IN
CEILINGS LATE IN THE DAY. CEILINGS WILL LIKELY LIFT TO VFR AND
BECOME BROKEN BY 19Z OUTSIDE OF ACY WHERE AN ONSHORE FLOW WILL
TEND TO KEEP THEM LOWER. WINDS WILL BE AT OR UNDER 10 KNOTS FROM
THE SOUTH LATE THIS EVENING THEN SHIFTING TO EASTERLY FOR MOST OF
SATURDAY. A WIND SHIFT TO A MORE WESTERLY DIRECTION IS LIKELY TO
START BY SATURDAY EVENING.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD NEAR 25
KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE. BY TOMORROW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
LIKELY FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...GAINES/JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 031942
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH STILL RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE
THING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THAT WIND DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE WAS VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, RELATIVELY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH
WE MAY HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE BY 12Z, START OF
RAIN (OR AT LEAST INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAIN) MAY BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.
THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILL
HAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 KT) WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. RAIN MAY START MOVING INTO THE AREA
AS EARLY AS 03Z, BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 09Z. ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS,
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR. FOR KACY, KMIV, KILG, AND KPHL, A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z.
IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES APPEARS UNLIKELY, BUT NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. WIND DIRECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT VARIABLE
INTO THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD SETTLE INTO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AROUND OR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD NEAR 25
KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE. BY TOMORROW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
LIKELY FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 031942
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH STILL RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE
THING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THAT WIND DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE WAS VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, RELATIVELY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH
WE MAY HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE BY 12Z, START OF
RAIN (OR AT LEAST INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAIN) MAY BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.
THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILL
HAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 KT) WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. RAIN MAY START MOVING INTO THE AREA
AS EARLY AS 03Z, BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 09Z. ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS,
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR. FOR KACY, KMIV, KILG, AND KPHL, A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z.
IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES APPEARS UNLIKELY, BUT NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. WIND DIRECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT VARIABLE
INTO THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD SETTLE INTO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AROUND OR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD NEAR 25
KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE. BY TOMORROW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
LIKELY FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 031942
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH STILL RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE
THING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THAT WIND DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE WAS VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, RELATIVELY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH
WE MAY HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE BY 12Z, START OF
RAIN (OR AT LEAST INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAIN) MAY BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.
THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILL
HAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 KT) WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. RAIN MAY START MOVING INTO THE AREA
AS EARLY AS 03Z, BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 09Z. ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS,
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR. FOR KACY, KMIV, KILG, AND KPHL, A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z.
IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES APPEARS UNLIKELY, BUT NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. WIND DIRECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT VARIABLE
INTO THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD SETTLE INTO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AROUND OR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD NEAR 25
KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE. BY TOMORROW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
LIKELY FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 031942
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH STILL RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE
THING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THAT WIND DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE WAS VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, RELATIVELY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH
WE MAY HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE BY 12Z, START OF
RAIN (OR AT LEAST INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAIN) MAY BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.
THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILL
HAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 KT) WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. RAIN MAY START MOVING INTO THE AREA
AS EARLY AS 03Z, BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 09Z. ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS,
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR. FOR KACY, KMIV, KILG, AND KPHL, A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z.
IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES APPEARS UNLIKELY, BUT NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. WIND DIRECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT VARIABLE
INTO THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD SETTLE INTO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AROUND OR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD NEAR 25
KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE. BY TOMORROW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
LIKELY FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON



000
FXUS61 KPHI 031942
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
342 PM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN OVER NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT,
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE ON SATURDAY. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE OHIO VALLEY WILL MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO OUR
SOUTH AND PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE REGION FOR
THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
WILL BEGIN THE NIGHT WITH STILL RATHER PLEASANT CONDITIONS AS THE
HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE AWAY FROM THE REGION. WILL LIKELY NOT BEGIN
TO SEE THE EFFECTS OF THE APPROACHING LOW UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT. ONE
THING WE`LL BE WATCHING CLOSELY IS THE LOW LEVEL WINDS OVERNIGHT.
LOW AND MID LEVEL FLOW TODAY ENDED UP BEING CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER
THAN WAS PREVIOUSLY FORECAST, NOT TO MENTION THAT WIND DIRECTION AT
THE SURFACE WAS VARIABLE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. THUS, RELATIVELY DRY
AIR REMAINS IN PLACE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AS A RESULT, EVEN THOUGH
WE MAY HAVE THE BEST SYNOPTIC SCALE LIFT IN PLACE BY 12Z, START OF
RAIN (OR AT LEAST INCREASE IN INTENSITY OF RAIN) MAY BE DELAYED BY A
FEW HOURS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SATURDAY/...
STILL LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS PERIOD. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE
DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS AND RUN-TO-RUN ON INDIVIDUAL MODEL RUNS.
FOR THE MOST PART, THE MAIN DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAD A SLIGHTLY
DRIER TREND WITH THE 12Z RUNS. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN THE CASE THE
LAST FEW DAYS, WITH THE 00Z RUNS TENDING TO BE WETTER SOLUTIONS. AT
THIS POINT, THINK THE HIGHEST CHANCES WILL STILL COME BEFORE 21Z.
THINK THAT IT WILL MOSTLY BE A STEADY RAIN GIVEN A RATHER STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. AS FAR AS RAIN AMOUNTS, HAVE FAVORED LIGHTER
AMOUNTS GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY OF HOW MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION WE WILL
HAVE. MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE PRECIP LIFTING OUT
QUICKLY FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

WITH ALL THE CLOUD COVER IN PLACE, IT LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL DAY
(HIGHS IN THE 60S AND 70S).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANY LINGERING PRECIP SHUD BE ENDING ERLY SAT EVE WHICH SHUD HAVE
A POSITIVE IMPACT ON ANY FIREWORKS DISPLAYS AND OTHER HOLIDAY
FESTIVITIES.

HIGH PRES WILL THEN BUILD IN FOR SAT NIGHT THRU MON KEEPING THIS
PD DRY OVER MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA. THE ONLY LOCATION THAT
GUID IMPLIES CUD SEE SOME PRECIP WUD BE OVER THE DELMARVA COME
MON.

BY MON NIGHT INTO TUE, ANOTHER QUICK WV MOVES THRU, THEN THE GFS
IS MUCH FASTER WITH A CDFNT FROM THE W, BRINGING IT THRU BY WED
MRNG AND THE ASSOCD PRECIP. THE CMC AND ECMWF ARE MUCH SLOWER
BRING THE FRONT THRU LATER WED INTO WED NIGHT. IF THE EC IS TO BE
BELIEVED, WITH THE SLOWER FRONTAL TIMING, TUE NIGHT INTO ERLY WED,
CUD BE DRY AND WED CUD BE ON THE HOT SIDE AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEN
THE ECMWF DEVELOPS WHAT APPEARS TO BE A VERY STRONG WAVE FOR FRI
THAT THE GFS DOESN`T HAVE, AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY DRY.

ONCE AGAIN, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE. THERE WILL BE A CFP.
HAVE SHADED THIS FCST TWD THE MDL CONSENSUS AND THE SLOWER
TIMING, BUT, NOT SURE ON THE MOST LIKELY PDS OF PRECIP AS A RESULT
OF THE UNCERTAINTY. FOR NOW, AM JUST CARRYING LOW POPS FOR FRI, AS
WE HAVE A WEEK TO SEE WHAT, IF ANYTHING, DEVELOPS.

TEMPS WILL START OFF NR NRML AND RISE TO ABV NRML VALUES BY THE
MIDDLE AND END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 KT) WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. RAIN MAY START MOVING INTO THE AREA
AS EARLY AS 03Z, BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 09Z. ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS,
CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR. FOR KACY, KMIV, KILG, AND KPHL, A
PERIOD OF IFR CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SOMETIME BETWEEN 12 AND 18Z.
IFR CONDITIONS FOR THE OTHER TAF SITES APPEARS UNLIKELY, BUT NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION. WIND DIRECTION WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT VARIABLE
INTO THIS EVENING, BUT SHOULD SETTLE INTO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AROUND OR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...

SAT NIGHT...SOME MVFR FOG PSBL AT THE MORE RURAL ARPTS, OTHERWISE
VFR.   HIGH CONFIDENCE.

SUN THRU TUE NIGHT...VFR SUN AND SUN NIGHT. HIGH CONFIDENCE. VFR
MON AND TUE OUTSIDE OF ANY SHRA/TSRA MAINLY IN THE AFTNS.

WED...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR WITH
INCREASING CHCS OF SHRA/TSRA, ESPECIALLY W AS CDFNT APPROACHES.
MDT CONFIDENCE.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW
MORNING. BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WINDS AND SEAS COULD BUILD NEAR 25
KT/5 FT, PRIMARILY ON THE NORTHERN ATLANTIC WATERS. HOWEVER, THERE
IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY.

OUTLOOK... SAT NIGHT AND SUN...THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THE LOW, BUT IT APPEARS THE BEST
CHC OF SEAS ABOVE SCA CONDS WILL BE EARLY SAT NIGHT AND PSBLY SOME
MRGNL WIND. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOW ENOUGH AT THE MOMENT TO
HOLD OFF ISSUING ANY FLAGS ATTM. THE BEST CHCS APPEAR TO BE ON THE
NRN WATERS. AFTER ANY SCA LINGERING INTO THE MRNG, THE CONDS SHUD
DECREASE BELOW SCA LATER INTO SUN.

SUN NIGHT THRU WED...NO MARINE FLAGS ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
WITH CONTINUED WEAK ON SHORE FLOW, HIGH TIDES THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY EVENING COULD APPROACH THE MINOR FLOODING LEVEL, BUT
RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED FOR A
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. SAT NIGHT AND SUN LOOK TO BE THE SAME WAY.
WHILE SOME SITES MAY APPROACH MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS, CURRENT
DATA INDICATES THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITERIA.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS INTO THIS EVENING ALONG THE
NEW JERSEY SHORE. BY TOMORROW, A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS IS
LIKELY FOR BOTH NEW JERSEY AND DELAWARE.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
RIP CURRENTS...JOHNSON




000
FXUS61 KPHI 031323
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
923 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY
AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. A TRANSIENT SURFACE
HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A FAIRLY NICE DAY
FOR MOST AREAS. THERE ARE NO STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND THERE IS NOT ANY INSTABILITY
FORECAST AS A STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE. SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND DELMARVA WHERE THERE IS SOME WEAK CHANNELIZED VORTICITY, WHICH
COULD CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING
ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND APPROACH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THERE IS NOT
MUCH, IF ANY INSTABILITY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT OUR FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. SO WE ONLY KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED MUCH BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB WITH
THE 500MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST AND ALSO BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB
AT 850MB. ONCE WE GET DOWN TO 925MB, THE WRF-NMMB LOOKS BETTER.
THE IMPLICATION OF THE 500MB DIFFERENCES (ESP IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST) IS THAT THE WRF-NMM HAS A SLIGHTLY MORE SHEARED WEAKER
SOLUTION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE LATEST GFS IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS TWO ECMWF RUNS AND NOW HAS THE HEAVIEST RAIN FLIPPED
TO THE OPPOSITE END OF OUR CWA FROM LAST NIGHT. A DP/DT VALID 18Z
SATURDAY SHOWS THIS TRANSITION WHICH STARTED WITH 06Z RUN LAST
NIGHT. WITH THE TROF DEEPER AND HANGING BACK, THE NEXT WAVE ON THE
FRONT BECOMES MUCH MORE MUTED AND THE LAST LOW ON THE WAVE TRAIN
BECOMES THE ALPHA LOW. AND THERE GOES INDEPENDENCE DAY.

LAST NIGHT IT APPEARED THE EURO WAS TOO SLOW WITH WAVE NUMBER TWO,
BUT IN REALITY AND UNFORTUNATELY ITS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE RIGHT
FOR THE WRONG REASON AS ITS WAVE NUMBER THREE THAT SHOULD MAKE IT
THREE CONSECUTIVE WET SATURDAYS IN A ROW. THE WAA INDUCED PHASE
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE UNDERWAY OR ON THE VERGE OF GETTING
UNDERWAY IN THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS INDEPENDENCE DAY
STARTS. WE SEE DECENT MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE PLUS A WELL
POSITIONED 250MB ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET FOR THE COOL SECTOR
PCPN MAX. THE RAW QPF MAY BE OVERDONE THERE BECAUSE OF THE LACK
OF PREDICTED CONVECTION, THERE SHOULD BE A SECONDARY MAX IN THAT
PART OF THE CYCLONE.

WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN STEADIER, THERE ARE STILL SOME LATITUDINAL
DIFFERENCES TO THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION IN OUR CWA. THE GFS IS ON
THE NORTHERN ENVELOPE. THE GEFS MEAN DOES A NORTH-SOUTH-NORTH
MEANDERING AROUND THE OP SFC LOW POSITION. WE SPREAD CONVECTIVE
CHANCES NORTHWARD AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES, BUT THE BEST CHANCE
REMAINS FROM THE MASON-DIXON AND ACY EXPRESSWAY LINE SOUTHWARD.
THIS SHOULD BE A SECONDARY 9AND POSSIBLY HIGHEST) PRECIP MAX. GFS
PCPN WATER VALUES EXCEED TWO INCHES YET AGAIN.

AS FAR AS SEVERE GOES, PREDICTED 500MB TEMPS ARE RATHER WARM, A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN 6/30. THUS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. DCAPE
IS NOT STRONG. WE WILL HAVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR, BUT MIXED
LAYER CAPES ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 1K JOULES EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLY DELMARVA. SO IF THERE IS A WINDOW FOR STRONGER STORMS, ITS
FAR SOUTH AS OF NOW. THE EARLY START TO CLOUDS AND PCPN IS NOT GOING
TO HELP.

THE WAA PUSH GETS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO IF THERE IS A
SILVER LINING, THE CURRENT TIMING (PMDHMD SUGGESTS A NON-CMC BLEND)
WOULD END THE HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES TOWARD EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT
ABOUT MAX TEMPS AT BOTH ENDS OF OUR CWA: NORTHWEST CLOUDS/PCPN MAY
MAKE US TOO HIGH, SOUTHEAST, A WARM SECTOR SQUEEZE WE MAY BE TOO
LOW. FULL SUN SUPPORTIVE OF NEAR 90.

IF WE CAN BANK ON CURRENT TIMING, SHWRS AND TSTMS WOULD BE DONE BY
THE START OF ANY FIREWORK FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE
TIMING SLIPPAGE FROM LAST NIGHT, WE CARRIED A LOW CHANCE EARLY.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE BETTER WEEKEND DAY. A DRY FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME CAPE, BUT HAVE THE CAP
HOLDING. ITS THE TYPE OF DAY IN WHICH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION
WOULD AFFECT LESS THAN 10% OF OUR CWA.

THE TRANSITION TO A WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEEK THEN STARTS ON
MONDAY. THIS MIGHT BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
YET ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE ON OUR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PREDICTED TO FORM AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH. POPS ARE GRADUALLY
INCREASED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

NO BIG CHANGES TO WED AND THU FORECASTS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE NEAR ENOUGH TO TRIGGER MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THE USUAL MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE THERE WITH
THE GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. NORMALLY SLOWER IS BETTER IN SUMMER
(UNFORTUNATELY FOR SATURDAY), SO WE KEPT RELATIVELY HIGH POPS IN
FOR BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 KT)
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. RAIN MAY START MOVING INTO
THE AREA AS EARLY AS 03Z, BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 06Z. ONCE THE
RAIN BEGINS, CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR OR LOWER. WIND DIRECTION
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT VARIABLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, SHIFTING
FROM MOSTLY NORTHERLY DIRECTION NOW TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AROUND OR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY MVFR, WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG, ESPECIALLY
AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR
GOING FORWARD INTO TUESDAY AS MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BEGIN INCREASING AND GUSTING
AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE STALLED FRONT, A SCA MAY BE
NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS STARTING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT,
SEAS MIGHT STILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF ANY SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS...NO
SYNOPTIC SCALE INDUCED MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE RECENT FULL MOON AND A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, TIDES WILL CONTINUE RUNNING HIGH. THE HIGH TIDE LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE MINOR FLOOD
LEVEL, BUT RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED
FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. THE TWO SITES THAT MAY GET THE CLOSEST
WOULD BE REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. WE`LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THROUGH THE DAY TO SEE IF AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

THEN ON SATURDAY NIGHT, THE TIDAL CONCERN SWITCHES TO THE
OCEANSIDE AS A LINGERING NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BRING ACTUAL TIDES
CLOSE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS. THE HIGHEST CONCERN
IS ALONG THE NJ COAST TOWARD NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY, BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. LOCAL REGRESSION GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NJ AND DE BEACHES TO BE JUST BELOW
MODERATE FOR TODAY, WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR A MODERATE RISK
ON SATURDAY (WHICH MAY NOT BE A GREAT BEACH DAY BECAUSE OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS).

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 031323
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
923 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY
AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. A TRANSIENT SURFACE
HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A FAIRLY NICE DAY
FOR MOST AREAS. THERE ARE NO STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND THERE IS NOT ANY INSTABILITY
FORECAST AS A STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE. SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND DELMARVA WHERE THERE IS SOME WEAK CHANNELIZED VORTICITY, WHICH
COULD CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING
ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND APPROACH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THERE IS NOT
MUCH, IF ANY INSTABILITY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT OUR FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. SO WE ONLY KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED MUCH BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB WITH
THE 500MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST AND ALSO BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB
AT 850MB. ONCE WE GET DOWN TO 925MB, THE WRF-NMMB LOOKS BETTER.
THE IMPLICATION OF THE 500MB DIFFERENCES (ESP IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST) IS THAT THE WRF-NMM HAS A SLIGHTLY MORE SHEARED WEAKER
SOLUTION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE LATEST GFS IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS TWO ECMWF RUNS AND NOW HAS THE HEAVIEST RAIN FLIPPED
TO THE OPPOSITE END OF OUR CWA FROM LAST NIGHT. A DP/DT VALID 18Z
SATURDAY SHOWS THIS TRANSITION WHICH STARTED WITH 06Z RUN LAST
NIGHT. WITH THE TROF DEEPER AND HANGING BACK, THE NEXT WAVE ON THE
FRONT BECOMES MUCH MORE MUTED AND THE LAST LOW ON THE WAVE TRAIN
BECOMES THE ALPHA LOW. AND THERE GOES INDEPENDENCE DAY.

LAST NIGHT IT APPEARED THE EURO WAS TOO SLOW WITH WAVE NUMBER TWO,
BUT IN REALITY AND UNFORTUNATELY ITS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE RIGHT
FOR THE WRONG REASON AS ITS WAVE NUMBER THREE THAT SHOULD MAKE IT
THREE CONSECUTIVE WET SATURDAYS IN A ROW. THE WAA INDUCED PHASE
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE UNDERWAY OR ON THE VERGE OF GETTING
UNDERWAY IN THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS INDEPENDENCE DAY
STARTS. WE SEE DECENT MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE PLUS A WELL
POSITIONED 250MB ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET FOR THE COOL SECTOR
PCPN MAX. THE RAW QPF MAY BE OVERDONE THERE BECAUSE OF THE LACK
OF PREDICTED CONVECTION, THERE SHOULD BE A SECONDARY MAX IN THAT
PART OF THE CYCLONE.

WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN STEADIER, THERE ARE STILL SOME LATITUDINAL
DIFFERENCES TO THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION IN OUR CWA. THE GFS IS ON
THE NORTHERN ENVELOPE. THE GEFS MEAN DOES A NORTH-SOUTH-NORTH
MEANDERING AROUND THE OP SFC LOW POSITION. WE SPREAD CONVECTIVE
CHANCES NORTHWARD AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES, BUT THE BEST CHANCE
REMAINS FROM THE MASON-DIXON AND ACY EXPRESSWAY LINE SOUTHWARD.
THIS SHOULD BE A SECONDARY 9AND POSSIBLY HIGHEST) PRECIP MAX. GFS
PCPN WATER VALUES EXCEED TWO INCHES YET AGAIN.

AS FAR AS SEVERE GOES, PREDICTED 500MB TEMPS ARE RATHER WARM, A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN 6/30. THUS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. DCAPE
IS NOT STRONG. WE WILL HAVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR, BUT MIXED
LAYER CAPES ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 1K JOULES EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLY DELMARVA. SO IF THERE IS A WINDOW FOR STRONGER STORMS, ITS
FAR SOUTH AS OF NOW. THE EARLY START TO CLOUDS AND PCPN IS NOT GOING
TO HELP.

THE WAA PUSH GETS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO IF THERE IS A
SILVER LINING, THE CURRENT TIMING (PMDHMD SUGGESTS A NON-CMC BLEND)
WOULD END THE HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES TOWARD EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT
ABOUT MAX TEMPS AT BOTH ENDS OF OUR CWA: NORTHWEST CLOUDS/PCPN MAY
MAKE US TOO HIGH, SOUTHEAST, A WARM SECTOR SQUEEZE WE MAY BE TOO
LOW. FULL SUN SUPPORTIVE OF NEAR 90.

IF WE CAN BANK ON CURRENT TIMING, SHWRS AND TSTMS WOULD BE DONE BY
THE START OF ANY FIREWORK FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE
TIMING SLIPPAGE FROM LAST NIGHT, WE CARRIED A LOW CHANCE EARLY.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE BETTER WEEKEND DAY. A DRY FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME CAPE, BUT HAVE THE CAP
HOLDING. ITS THE TYPE OF DAY IN WHICH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION
WOULD AFFECT LESS THAN 10% OF OUR CWA.

THE TRANSITION TO A WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEEK THEN STARTS ON
MONDAY. THIS MIGHT BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
YET ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE ON OUR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PREDICTED TO FORM AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH. POPS ARE GRADUALLY
INCREASED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

NO BIG CHANGES TO WED AND THU FORECASTS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE NEAR ENOUGH TO TRIGGER MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THE USUAL MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE THERE WITH
THE GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. NORMALLY SLOWER IS BETTER IN SUMMER
(UNFORTUNATELY FOR SATURDAY), SO WE KEPT RELATIVELY HIGH POPS IN
FOR BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 KT)
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. RAIN MAY START MOVING INTO
THE AREA AS EARLY AS 03Z, BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 06Z. ONCE THE
RAIN BEGINS, CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR OR LOWER. WIND DIRECTION
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT VARIABLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, SHIFTING
FROM MOSTLY NORTHERLY DIRECTION NOW TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AROUND OR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY MVFR, WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG, ESPECIALLY
AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR
GOING FORWARD INTO TUESDAY AS MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BEGIN INCREASING AND GUSTING
AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE STALLED FRONT, A SCA MAY BE
NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS STARTING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT,
SEAS MIGHT STILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF ANY SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS...NO
SYNOPTIC SCALE INDUCED MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE RECENT FULL MOON AND A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, TIDES WILL CONTINUE RUNNING HIGH. THE HIGH TIDE LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE MINOR FLOOD
LEVEL, BUT RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED
FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. THE TWO SITES THAT MAY GET THE CLOSEST
WOULD BE REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. WE`LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THROUGH THE DAY TO SEE IF AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

THEN ON SATURDAY NIGHT, THE TIDAL CONCERN SWITCHES TO THE
OCEANSIDE AS A LINGERING NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BRING ACTUAL TIDES
CLOSE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS. THE HIGHEST CONCERN
IS ALONG THE NJ COAST TOWARD NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY, BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. LOCAL REGRESSION GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NJ AND DE BEACHES TO BE JUST BELOW
MODERATE FOR TODAY, WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR A MODERATE RISK
ON SATURDAY (WHICH MAY NOT BE A GREAT BEACH DAY BECAUSE OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS).

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 031323
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
923 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY
AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
FOG HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED ACROSS THE AREA. A TRANSIENT SURFACE
HIGH WILL SLIDE OVER THE REGION TODAY BRINGING A FAIRLY NICE DAY
FOR MOST AREAS. THERE ARE NO STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AND THERE IS NOT ANY INSTABILITY
FORECAST AS A STRONG CAP WILL BE IN PLACE. SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY
PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD FOR MOST OF
THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY
AND DELMARVA WHERE THERE IS SOME WEAK CHANNELIZED VORTICITY, WHICH
COULD CREATE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY AN INCREASE
IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TODAY.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING
ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND APPROACH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THERE IS NOT
MUCH, IF ANY INSTABILITY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT OUR FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. SO WE ONLY KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED MUCH BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB WITH
THE 500MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST AND ALSO BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB
AT 850MB. ONCE WE GET DOWN TO 925MB, THE WRF-NMMB LOOKS BETTER.
THE IMPLICATION OF THE 500MB DIFFERENCES (ESP IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST) IS THAT THE WRF-NMM HAS A SLIGHTLY MORE SHEARED WEAKER
SOLUTION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE LATEST GFS IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS TWO ECMWF RUNS AND NOW HAS THE HEAVIEST RAIN FLIPPED
TO THE OPPOSITE END OF OUR CWA FROM LAST NIGHT. A DP/DT VALID 18Z
SATURDAY SHOWS THIS TRANSITION WHICH STARTED WITH 06Z RUN LAST
NIGHT. WITH THE TROF DEEPER AND HANGING BACK, THE NEXT WAVE ON THE
FRONT BECOMES MUCH MORE MUTED AND THE LAST LOW ON THE WAVE TRAIN
BECOMES THE ALPHA LOW. AND THERE GOES INDEPENDENCE DAY.

LAST NIGHT IT APPEARED THE EURO WAS TOO SLOW WITH WAVE NUMBER TWO,
BUT IN REALITY AND UNFORTUNATELY ITS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE RIGHT
FOR THE WRONG REASON AS ITS WAVE NUMBER THREE THAT SHOULD MAKE IT
THREE CONSECUTIVE WET SATURDAYS IN A ROW. THE WAA INDUCED PHASE
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE UNDERWAY OR ON THE VERGE OF GETTING
UNDERWAY IN THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS INDEPENDENCE DAY
STARTS. WE SEE DECENT MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE PLUS A WELL
POSITIONED 250MB ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET FOR THE COOL SECTOR
PCPN MAX. THE RAW QPF MAY BE OVERDONE THERE BECAUSE OF THE LACK
OF PREDICTED CONVECTION, THERE SHOULD BE A SECONDARY MAX IN THAT
PART OF THE CYCLONE.

WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN STEADIER, THERE ARE STILL SOME LATITUDINAL
DIFFERENCES TO THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION IN OUR CWA. THE GFS IS ON
THE NORTHERN ENVELOPE. THE GEFS MEAN DOES A NORTH-SOUTH-NORTH
MEANDERING AROUND THE OP SFC LOW POSITION. WE SPREAD CONVECTIVE
CHANCES NORTHWARD AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES, BUT THE BEST CHANCE
REMAINS FROM THE MASON-DIXON AND ACY EXPRESSWAY LINE SOUTHWARD.
THIS SHOULD BE A SECONDARY 9AND POSSIBLY HIGHEST) PRECIP MAX. GFS
PCPN WATER VALUES EXCEED TWO INCHES YET AGAIN.

AS FAR AS SEVERE GOES, PREDICTED 500MB TEMPS ARE RATHER WARM, A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN 6/30. THUS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. DCAPE
IS NOT STRONG. WE WILL HAVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR, BUT MIXED
LAYER CAPES ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 1K JOULES EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLY DELMARVA. SO IF THERE IS A WINDOW FOR STRONGER STORMS, ITS
FAR SOUTH AS OF NOW. THE EARLY START TO CLOUDS AND PCPN IS NOT GOING
TO HELP.

THE WAA PUSH GETS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO IF THERE IS A
SILVER LINING, THE CURRENT TIMING (PMDHMD SUGGESTS A NON-CMC BLEND)
WOULD END THE HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES TOWARD EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT
ABOUT MAX TEMPS AT BOTH ENDS OF OUR CWA: NORTHWEST CLOUDS/PCPN MAY
MAKE US TOO HIGH, SOUTHEAST, A WARM SECTOR SQUEEZE WE MAY BE TOO
LOW. FULL SUN SUPPORTIVE OF NEAR 90.

IF WE CAN BANK ON CURRENT TIMING, SHWRS AND TSTMS WOULD BE DONE BY
THE START OF ANY FIREWORK FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE
TIMING SLIPPAGE FROM LAST NIGHT, WE CARRIED A LOW CHANCE EARLY.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE BETTER WEEKEND DAY. A DRY FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME CAPE, BUT HAVE THE CAP
HOLDING. ITS THE TYPE OF DAY IN WHICH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION
WOULD AFFECT LESS THAN 10% OF OUR CWA.

THE TRANSITION TO A WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEEK THEN STARTS ON
MONDAY. THIS MIGHT BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
YET ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE ON OUR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PREDICTED TO FORM AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH. POPS ARE GRADUALLY
INCREASED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

NO BIG CHANGES TO WED AND THU FORECASTS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE NEAR ENOUGH TO TRIGGER MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THE USUAL MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE THERE WITH
THE GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. NORMALLY SLOWER IS BETTER IN SUMMER
(UNFORTUNATELY FOR SATURDAY), SO WE KEPT RELATIVELY HIGH POPS IN
FOR BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS (GENERALLY NEAR OR BELOW 5 KT)
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST 00Z. RAIN MAY START MOVING INTO
THE AREA AS EARLY AS 03Z, BUT MORE LIKELY AFTER 06Z. ONCE THE
RAIN BEGINS, CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR OR LOWER. WIND DIRECTION
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE A BIT VARIABLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT, SHIFTING
FROM MOSTLY NORTHERLY DIRECTION NOW TO A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION
AROUND OR AFTER 00Z.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY MVFR, WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG, ESPECIALLY
AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR
GOING FORWARD INTO TUESDAY AS MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BEGIN INCREASING AND GUSTING
AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE STALLED FRONT, A SCA MAY BE
NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS STARTING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT,
SEAS MIGHT STILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF ANY SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS...NO
SYNOPTIC SCALE INDUCED MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE RECENT FULL MOON AND A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, TIDES WILL CONTINUE RUNNING HIGH. THE HIGH TIDE LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE MINOR FLOOD
LEVEL, BUT RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED
FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. THE TWO SITES THAT MAY GET THE CLOSEST
WOULD BE REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. WE`LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THROUGH THE DAY TO SEE IF AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

THEN ON SATURDAY NIGHT, THE TIDAL CONCERN SWITCHES TO THE
OCEANSIDE AS A LINGERING NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BRING ACTUAL TIDES
CLOSE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS. THE HIGHEST CONCERN
IS ALONG THE NJ COAST TOWARD NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS SATURDAY, BEFORE
CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. LOCAL REGRESSION GUIDANCE SHOWS THE
RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NJ AND DE BEACHES TO BE JUST BELOW
MODERATE FOR TODAY, WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR A MODERATE RISK
ON SATURDAY (WHICH MAY NOT BE A GREAT BEACH DAY BECAUSE OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS).

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 030802
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
402 AM EDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD INTO NEW ENGLAND TODAY
AND TONIGHT. MEANWHILE, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY WILL RIDE ALONG THE STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
PASS EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA ON INDEPENDENCE DAY.
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION FOR THE END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND AND MONDAY. A WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MIGHT EASE NORTH INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY AS
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

PATCHY FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND LIGHT
WINDS, BUT THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE.

TODAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY NICE DAY FOR MOST AREAS. THERE ARE NO
STRONG SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA AND THERE IS NOT ANY INSTABILITY FORECAST AS A STRONG CAP WILL
BE IN PLACE. SO WE DO NOT EXPECT ANY PRECIPITATION TO DEVELOP
THROUGH THE DAYTIME PERIOD FOR MOST OF THE AREA. THE ONLY EXCEPTION
WOULD BE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA WHERE THERE IS SOME
WEAK CHANNELIZED VORTICITY, WHICH COULD CREATE A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS. OTHERWISE, MAINLY AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED
TODAY.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE DEVELOPING TO OUR WEST THIS EVENING
ALONG THE STALLED OUT FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT IS LOCATED TO OUR SOUTH
AND SOUTHWEST. THIS LOW WILL TRACK EASTWARD THROUGH THE NIGHT ALONG
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND APPROACH OUR SOUTHERN AREAS TOWARD DAYBREAK
SATURDAY. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT AS WELL. THIS WILL LEAD TO INCREASING
SHOWER POSSIBILITIES OVERNIGHT INTO DAYBREAK SATURDAY. THERE IS NOT
MUCH, IF ANY INSTABILITY FORECAST FOR MOST AREAS EXCEPT OUR FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS. SO WE ONLY KEEP ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FOR EXTREME
SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND DELMARVA.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE GFS INITIALIZATION LOOKED MUCH BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB WITH
THE 500MB TROF IN THE MIDWEST AND ALSO BETTER THAN THE WRF-NMMB
AT 850MB. ONCE WE GET DOWN TO 925MB, THE WRF-NMMB LOOKS BETTER.
THE IMPLICATION OF THE 500MB DIFFERENCES (ESP IN THE UPPER
MIDWEST) IS THAT THE WRF-NMM HAS A SLIGHTLY MORE SHEARED WEAKER
SOLUTION FOR INDEPENDENCE DAY. THE LATEST GFS IS VERY CLOSE TO
THE PREVIOUS TWO ECMWF RUNS AND NOW HAS THE HEAVIEST RAIN FLIPPED
TO THE OPPOSITE END OF OUR CWA FROM LAST NIGHT. A DP/DT VALID 18Z
SATURDAY SHOWS THIS TRANSITION WHICH STARTED WITH 06Z RUN LAST
NIGHT. WITH THE TROF DEEPER AND HANGING BACK, THE NEXT WAVE ON THE
FRONT BECOMES MUCH MORE MUTED AND THE LAST LOW ON THE WAVE TRAIN
BECOMES THE ALPHA LOW. AND THERE GOES INDEPENDENCE DAY.

LAST NIGHT IT APPEARED THE EURO WAS TOO SLOW WITH WAVE NUMBER TWO,
BUT IN REALITY AND UNFORTUNATELY ITS LOOKING LIKE IT WILL BE RIGHT
FOR THE WRONG REASON AS ITS WAVE NUMBER THREE THAT SHOULD MAKE IT
THREE CONSECUTIVE WET SATURDAYS IN A ROW. THE WAA INDUCED PHASE
OF THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE UNDERWAY OR ON THE VERGE OF GETTING
UNDERWAY IN THE WESTERN PART OF OUR CWA AS INDEPENDENCE DAY
STARTS. WE SEE DECENT MID LEVEL QVEC CONVERGENCE PLUS A WELL
POSITIONED 250MB ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET FOR THE COOL SECTOR
PCPN MAX. THE RAW QPF MAY BE OVERDONE THERE BECAUSE OF THE LACK
OF PREDICTED CONVECTION, THERE SHOULD BE A SECONDARY MAX IN THAT
PART OF THE CYCLONE.

WHILE THE ECMWF HAS BEEN STEADIER, THERE ARE STILL SOME LATITUDINAL
DIFFERENCES TO THE EXTENT OF CONVECTION IN OUR CWA. THE GFS IS ON
THE NORTHERN ENVELOPE. THE GEFS MEAN DOES A NORTH-SOUTH-NORTH
MEANDERING AROUND THE OP SFC LOW POSITION. WE SPREAD CONVECTIVE
CHANCES NORTHWARD AS SATURDAY PROGRESSES, BUT THE BEST CHANCE
REMAINS FROM THE MASON-DIXON AND ACY EXPRESSWAY LINE SOUTHWARD.
THIS SHOULD BE A SECONDARY 9AND POSSIBLY HIGHEST) PRECIP MAX. GFS
PCPN WATER VALUES EXCEED TWO INCHES YET AGAIN.

AS FAR AS SEVERE GOES, PREDICTED 500MB TEMPS ARE RATHER WARM, A FEW
DEGREES WARMER THAN 6/30. THUS MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE POOR. DCAPE
IS NOT STRONG. WE WILL HAVE MORE THAN ADEQUATE BULK SHEAR, BUT MIXED
LAYER CAPES ARE PREDICTED TO REMAIN LESS THAN 1K JOULES EXCEPT FOR
POSSIBLY DELMARVA. SO IF THERE IS A WINDOW FOR STRONGER STORMS, ITS
FAR SOUTH AS OF NOW. THE EARLY START TO CLOUDS AND PCPN IS NOT GOING
TO HELP.

THE WAA PUSH GETS THROUGH DURING THE AFTERNOON, SO IF THERE IS A
SILVER LINING, THE CURRENT TIMING (PMDHMD SUGGESTS A NON-CMC BLEND)
WOULD END THE HIGHEST PCPN CHANCES TOWARD EVENING. NOT CONFIDENT
ABOUT MAX TEMPS AT BOTH ENDS OF OUR CWA: NORTHWEST CLOUDS/PCPN MAY
MAKE US TOO HIGH, SOUTHEAST, A WARM SECTOR SQUEEZE WE MAY BE TOO
LOW. FULL SUN SUPPORTIVE OF NEAR 90.

IF WE CAN BANK ON CURRENT TIMING, SHWRS AND TSTMS WOULD BE DONE BY
THE START OF ANY FIREWORK FESTIVITIES SATURDAY EVENING. GIVEN THE
TIMING SLIPPAGE FROM LAST NIGHT, WE CARRIED A LOW CHANCE EARLY.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE BETTER WEEKEND DAY. A DRY FORECAST WITH
TEMPERATURES RECOVERING TO NEAR NORMAL AND RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME CAPE, BUT HAVE THE CAP
HOLDING. ITS THE TYPE OF DAY IN WHICH VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION
WOULD AFFECT LESS THAN 10% OF OUR CWA.

THE TRANSITION TO A WARMER AND MORE HUMID WEEK THEN STARTS ON
MONDAY. THIS MIGHT BE TEMPERED SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
YET ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE ON OUR OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
PREDICTED TO FORM AND DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH. POPS ARE GRADUALLY
INCREASED FROM SOUTH TO NORTH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

NO BIG CHANGES TO WED AND THU FORECASTS. A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT
SHOULD BE NEAR ENOUGH TO TRIGGER MORE THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. THE USUAL MODEL TIMING DIFFERENCES ARE THERE WITH
THE GFS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. NORMALLY SLOWER IS BETTER IN SUMMER
(UNFORTUNATELY FOR SATURDAY), SO WE KEPT RELATIVELY HIGH POPS IN
FOR BOTH DAYS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MIST/FOG HAS DEVELOPED OVERNIGHT DUE TO CLEARING SKIES AND
LIGHT WINDS, LEADING TO MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS AT SOME AIRPORTS.
THE FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER SUNRISE, THEN VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY INTO THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT. RAIN MAY
START MOVING INTO THE AREA LATE FRIDAY NIGHT/EARLY MORNING SATURDAY.
ONCE THE RAIN BEGINS, CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO MVFR OR LOWER.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BECOME MORE EAST TO
NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING, THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY BY THIS
AFTERNOON AND REMAIN SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY UNTIL DAYBREAK SATURDAY WHEN
THE BECOME EASTERLY AGAIN. ALL SPEEDS SHOULD BE LESS THAN 10 KNOTS
TODAY INTO TONIGHT..

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY...PREDOMINATELY MVFR, WITH IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES
DURING HEAVIER SHOWERS AND TSTMS.

SATURDAY NIGHT...SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG, ESPECIALLY
AT MORE RURAL AIRPORTS.

SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...VFR.

MONDAY AND TUESDAY...PREDOMINATELY VFR, BUT DECREASING TO MVFR/IFR
GOING FORWARD INTO TUESDAY AS MORE SHOWERS AND TSTMS DEVELOP.

&&

.MARINE...
SUB-SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA
TODAY INTO TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH WINDS MAY BEGIN INCREASING AND GUSTING
AROUND 20 KNOTS OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK
OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ALONG THE STALLED FRONT, A SCA MAY BE
NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE NORTHERN OCEAN WATERS STARTING
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE WINDS SHOULD DECREASE SATURDAY NIGHT,
SEAS MIGHT STILL REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA.

SUNDAY THRU TUESDAY...OUTSIDE OF ANY SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS...NO
SYNOPTIC SCALE INDUCED MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
DUE TO THE RECENT FULL MOON AND A STEADY EASTERLY FLOW TODAY INTO
TONIGHT, TIDES WILL CONTINUE RUNNING HIGH. THE HIGH TIDE LATER
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING MAY APPROACH THE MINOR FLOOD
LEVEL, BUT RIGHT NOW NO SITES ARE FORECAST TO REACH LEVELS NEEDED
FOR A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY. THE TWO SITES THAT MAY GET THE CLOSEST
WOULD BE REEDY POINT AND PHILADELPHIA. WE`LL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THROUGH THE DAY TO SEE IF AN ADVISORY IS NEEDED.

THEN ON SATURDAY NIGHT, THE TIDAL CONCERN SWITCHES TO THE
OCEANSIDE AS A LINGERING NORTHEAST FLOW SHOULD BRING ACTUAL TIDES
CLOSE TO MINOR TIDAL FLOODING LEVELS. THE HIGHEST CONCERN
IS ALONG THE NJ COAST TOWARD NEW YORK CITY.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. LOCAL REGRESSION GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NJ AND DE BEACHES TO BE JUST
BELOW MODERATE FOR TODAY, WITH A GREATER LIKELIHOOD FOR A MODERATE
RISK ON SATURDAY (WHICH MAY NOT BE A GREAT BEACH DAY BECAUSE OF
NUMEROUS SHOWERS).

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/NIERENBERG/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 030139
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
939 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH NEAR THE VA-NC
BORDER AND TO OUR EAST JUST OFF THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE
EVENING WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP CAPTURED A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
APPROACHING THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST. THE LAST BAND OF SHOWERS WITH
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE OFF THE NEW JERSEY COAST LATE THIS
EVENING. THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED LEFTOVER SHOWER OVERNIGHT
ESPECIALLY IN THE DELMARVA AND NEAR THE COAST BUT FOR THE MOST PART
IT WILL DRY OUT.

THE EXTENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE CLOUD
COVER THAT IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE. HOWEVER, BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM NW TO SE LATE TONIGHT. IF MORE
PERSISTENT BREAKS OCCUR THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED, THEN THE COVERAGE
OF FOG MAY BE GREATER, ESPECIALLY IF THE BREAKS OCCUR ACROSS THE
SAME AREAS WHERE THE GROUND IS STILL WET FROM TODAY`S RAINFALL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER HEAD BRINGING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. EVEN THOUGH
THERE SHOULD BE LESS CLOUDS TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST),
STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE.

ANY MENTION OF THUNDER WAS REMOVED FROM THE FORECAST ON FRIDAY.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR TOMORROW ARE STABLE EVEN IN OUR SOUTHERN
MOST ZONES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD, A STALLED FRONT WILL BE LOCATED S
OF THE REGION. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOV ALG THE FRONT AND CUD
TRIGGER SOME SHRA/TSRA SAT INTO SAT EVE. THE BEST CHCS ARE OVER
SRN AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT ANY ACTIVITY SHUD BE SCT AND OVER
WITH BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WORST OF
THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS, IF WE HAD TO PICK ONE.

BY SUN, HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND SUN SHUD BE DRY OVER
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA, CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT.

THE MDLS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO MON. THE GFS IS
DRY. THE CMC IS ALSO DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS. RIGHT
NOW, THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER. BUT, FELT COMPELLED TO AT LEAST
INTRODUCE SOME VERY LOW POPS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THINGS WET INTO TUE WHILE THE OTHER MDLS ARE DRY.

THEN, BY WED, MDLS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AGAIN AS A CDFNT
APPROACHES FROM THE W, PRECIP WOULD PROB LINGER INTO THU, BUT
THERE IS STILL A WEEK FOR THE MDLS TO IRON OUT ANY DIFFS IN
FRONTAL TIMING.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAT, WHICH LOOKS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE,
TEMPS SHUD BE NR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW CLOUDS HAVE ERODED AT ACY/MIV AROUND SUNSET THIS EVE AS THE
RAIN HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR LOW
CLOUDS TO REDEVELOP IN THESE AREAS OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. PATCHY FOG MAY DEVELOP AT THE TERMINALS OVERNIGHT,
ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY. WINDS WILL
BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

MAINLY VFR AFTER 12Z FRIDAY, THOUGH LOWER CLOUDS MAY PERSIST INTO
THE LATE MORNING ALONG THE COAST (ACY). THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS; TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT THIS TIME. EAST
WINDS MAY BECOME SOUTHEASTERLY DURING THE AFTERNOON BUT LESS THAN
10 KT.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...GENLY VFR. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CHC OF
MVFR/IFR CONDS SAT AFTN/EVE IN SCT SHWRS AND PSBL TSRA. BEST CHCS
ARE FOR THE SRN TAF SITES.  MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED SUN AND TUE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE. LESS CERTAINTY FOR MON, DUE TO MDL DISAGREEMENT. COULD
BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND FRIDAY.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF LOW
PRES ALG STALLED FRONT, SCA MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN
WATERS. HOWEVER,  LTST GUID INDICATES BOTH WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURG THIS PD.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED DURG THIS PD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON (WHICH OCCURRED THIS PAST WEDNESDAY) MIGHT
CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON
FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, LTST GUID
INDICATES WE SHUD STAY JUST BELOW MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA
ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. LOCAL REGRESSION GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE RIP CURRENT RISK FOR THE NJ BEACHES TO BE RIGHT AT THE
CUSP FOR MODERATE ON FRIDAY.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON/KLEIN
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...KLEIN/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...STAFF
RIP CURRENTS...KLEIN



000
FXUS61 KPHI 022242
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
642 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
630 PM FORECAST UPDATE...
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SEVERAL DEGREES. IT FEELS RATHER
COOL OUT THERE FOR JULY STANDARDS AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NEVER
DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY. THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THRU
SUNSET SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SE PA/C AND S NJ AND THE DELMARVA.
THE COLD FRONT RESIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA, BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FOR THESE SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE AS OUR REGION IS POSITIONED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE-REGION
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. THERE IS ALSO A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THAT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH, AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE OVER THE REGION, WE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT QPF OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE
AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS, NOT TO
MENTION A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (SAVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD UNDER
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET). MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL. THEREFORE
HAVE DECREASED POPS, EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THERE CONTINUES
TO BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL, GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION, IT
WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT FIRST ON IF AND WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE
OF AN OFF SHORE DIRECTION. IN ADDITION, AREAS IN DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ THAT HAD RAIN TODAY MAY STILL HAVE SOME STANDING WATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD HELP FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MIV TO ACY LINE. HOWEVER,
WILL NOT MENTION ANY POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER HEAD BRINGING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. EVEN THOUGH
THERE SHOULD BE LESS CLOUDS TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST),
STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD, A STALLED FRONT WILL BE LOCATED S
OF THE REGION. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOV ALG THE FRONT AND CUD
TRIGGER SOME SHRA/TSRA SAT INTO SAT EVE. THE BEST CHCS ARE OVER
SRN AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT ANY ACTIVITY SHUD BE SCT AND OVER
WITH BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WORST OF
THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS, IF WE HAD TO PICK ONE.

BY SUN, HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND SUN SHUD BE DRY OVER
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA, CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT.

THE MDLS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO MON. THE GFS IS
DRY. THE CMC IS ALSO DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS. RIGHT
NOW, THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER. BUT, FELT COMPELLED TO AT LEAST
INTRODUCE SOME VERY LOW POPS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THINGS WET INTO TUE WHILE THE OTHER MDLS ARE DRY.

THEN, BY WED, MDLS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AGAIN AS A CDFNT
APPROACHES FROM THE W, PRECIP WOULD PROB LINGER INTO THU, BUT
THERE IS STILL A WEEK FOR THE MDLS TO IRON OUT ANY DIFFS IN
FRONTAL TIMING.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAT, WHICH LOOKS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE,
TEMPS SHUD BE NR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE STUBBORN TO ERODE ACROSS SOUTHERN NJ WHERE THE
MOST PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN THIS AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS NOW LOOK TO LINGER AT MIV AND ESPECIALLY ACY THRU AT
LEAST 00Z. AT MIV/ACY, CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS EVENING ONCE RAIN MOVES OUT BUT THAT
OPPURTUNITY IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

AFTER 06Z, BR COULD DEVELOP, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND A WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO MORE NORTHERLY (WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY
5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD). FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMIV, AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KACY, WHICH HAVE A
HIGHER RISK GIVEN SATURATED GROUND.

EXPECT TO RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE BY 18Z TOMORROW. THERE REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, BUT TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...GENLY VFR. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CHC OF
MVFR/IFR CONDS SAT AFTN/EVE IN SCT SHWRS AND PSBL TSRA. BEST CHCS
ARE FOR THE SRN TAF SITES.  MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED SUN AND TUE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE. LESS CERTAINTY FOR MON, DUE TO MDL DISAGREEMENT. COULD
BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF LOW
PRES ALG STALLED FRONT, SCA MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN
WATERS. HOWEVER,  LTST GUID INDICATES BOTH WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURG THIS PD.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED DURG THIS PD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON (WHICH OCCURRED THIS PAST WEDNESDAY) MIGHT
CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON
FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, LTST GUID
INDICATES WE SHUD STAY JUST BELOW MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA
ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/KLEIN
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 022242
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
642 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
630 PM FORECAST UPDATE...
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SEVERAL DEGREES. IT FEELS RATHER
COOL OUT THERE FOR JULY STANDARDS AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NEVER
DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY. THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THRU
SUNSET SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SE PA/C AND S NJ AND THE DELMARVA.
THE COLD FRONT RESIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA, BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FOR THESE SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE AS OUR REGION IS POSITIONED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE-REGION
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. THERE IS ALSO A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THAT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH, AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE OVER THE REGION, WE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT QPF OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE
AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS, NOT TO
MENTION A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (SAVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD UNDER
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET). MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL. THEREFORE
HAVE DECREASED POPS, EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THERE CONTINUES
TO BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL, GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION, IT
WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT FIRST ON IF AND WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE
OF AN OFF SHORE DIRECTION. IN ADDITION, AREAS IN DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ THAT HAD RAIN TODAY MAY STILL HAVE SOME STANDING WATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD HELP FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MIV TO ACY LINE. HOWEVER,
WILL NOT MENTION ANY POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER HEAD BRINGING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. EVEN THOUGH
THERE SHOULD BE LESS CLOUDS TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST),
STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD, A STALLED FRONT WILL BE LOCATED S
OF THE REGION. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOV ALG THE FRONT AND CUD
TRIGGER SOME SHRA/TSRA SAT INTO SAT EVE. THE BEST CHCS ARE OVER
SRN AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT ANY ACTIVITY SHUD BE SCT AND OVER
WITH BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WORST OF
THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS, IF WE HAD TO PICK ONE.

BY SUN, HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND SUN SHUD BE DRY OVER
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA, CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT.

THE MDLS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO MON. THE GFS IS
DRY. THE CMC IS ALSO DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS. RIGHT
NOW, THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER. BUT, FELT COMPELLED TO AT LEAST
INTRODUCE SOME VERY LOW POPS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THINGS WET INTO TUE WHILE THE OTHER MDLS ARE DRY.

THEN, BY WED, MDLS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AGAIN AS A CDFNT
APPROACHES FROM THE W, PRECIP WOULD PROB LINGER INTO THU, BUT
THERE IS STILL A WEEK FOR THE MDLS TO IRON OUT ANY DIFFS IN
FRONTAL TIMING.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAT, WHICH LOOKS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE,
TEMPS SHUD BE NR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE STUBBORN TO ERODE ACROSS SOUTHERN NJ WHERE THE
MOST PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN THIS AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS NOW LOOK TO LINGER AT MIV AND ESPECIALLY ACY THRU AT
LEAST 00Z. AT MIV/ACY, CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS EVENING ONCE RAIN MOVES OUT BUT THAT
OPPURTUNITY IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

AFTER 06Z, BR COULD DEVELOP, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND A WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO MORE NORTHERLY (WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY
5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD). FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMIV, AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KACY, WHICH HAVE A
HIGHER RISK GIVEN SATURATED GROUND.

EXPECT TO RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE BY 18Z TOMORROW. THERE REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, BUT TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...GENLY VFR. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CHC OF
MVFR/IFR CONDS SAT AFTN/EVE IN SCT SHWRS AND PSBL TSRA. BEST CHCS
ARE FOR THE SRN TAF SITES.  MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED SUN AND TUE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE. LESS CERTAINTY FOR MON, DUE TO MDL DISAGREEMENT. COULD
BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF LOW
PRES ALG STALLED FRONT, SCA MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN
WATERS. HOWEVER,  LTST GUID INDICATES BOTH WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURG THIS PD.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED DURG THIS PD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON (WHICH OCCURRED THIS PAST WEDNESDAY) MIGHT
CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON
FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, LTST GUID
INDICATES WE SHUD STAY JUST BELOW MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA
ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/KLEIN
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 022242
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
642 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
630 PM FORECAST UPDATE...
TEMPS WERE ADJUSTED DOWNWARD SEVERAL DEGREES. IT FEELS RATHER
COOL OUT THERE FOR JULY STANDARDS AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS NEVER
DEVELOPED DURING THE DAY. THE BULK OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY THRU
SUNSET SHOULD BE CONFINED TO SE PA/C AND S NJ AND THE DELMARVA.
THE COLD FRONT RESIDES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CWA, BUT THERE IS
ENOUGH LIFT ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FOR THESE SHOWERS TO
CONTINUE AS OUR REGION IS POSITIONED IN THE RIGHT ENTRANCE-REGION
OF AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK. THERE IS ALSO A SUBTLE MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE TROUGH SEEN ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE THAT IS CURRENTLY
MOVING THRU THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH, AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE OVER THE REGION, WE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT QPF OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE
AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS, NOT TO
MENTION A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (SAVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD UNDER
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET). MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL. THEREFORE
HAVE DECREASED POPS, EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THERE CONTINUES
TO BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL, GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION, IT
WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT FIRST ON IF AND WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE
OF AN OFF SHORE DIRECTION. IN ADDITION, AREAS IN DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ THAT HAD RAIN TODAY MAY STILL HAVE SOME STANDING WATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD HELP FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MIV TO ACY LINE. HOWEVER,
WILL NOT MENTION ANY POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER HEAD BRINGING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. EVEN THOUGH
THERE SHOULD BE LESS CLOUDS TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST),
STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD, A STALLED FRONT WILL BE LOCATED S
OF THE REGION. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOV ALG THE FRONT AND CUD
TRIGGER SOME SHRA/TSRA SAT INTO SAT EVE. THE BEST CHCS ARE OVER
SRN AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT ANY ACTIVITY SHUD BE SCT AND OVER
WITH BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WORST OF
THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS, IF WE HAD TO PICK ONE.

BY SUN, HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND SUN SHUD BE DRY OVER
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA, CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT.

THE MDLS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO MON. THE GFS IS
DRY. THE CMC IS ALSO DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS. RIGHT
NOW, THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER. BUT, FELT COMPELLED TO AT LEAST
INTRODUCE SOME VERY LOW POPS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THINGS WET INTO TUE WHILE THE OTHER MDLS ARE DRY.

THEN, BY WED, MDLS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AGAIN AS A CDFNT
APPROACHES FROM THE W, PRECIP WOULD PROB LINGER INTO THU, BUT
THERE IS STILL A WEEK FOR THE MDLS TO IRON OUT ANY DIFFS IN
FRONTAL TIMING.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAT, WHICH LOOKS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE,
TEMPS SHUD BE NR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

LOW CLOUDS ARE STUBBORN TO ERODE ACROSS SOUTHERN NJ WHERE THE
MOST PERSISTENT SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS BEEN THIS AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS NOW LOOK TO LINGER AT MIV AND ESPECIALLY ACY THRU AT
LEAST 00Z. AT MIV/ACY, CANNOT RULE OUT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF
IMPROVEMENT LATER THIS EVENING ONCE RAIN MOVES OUT BUT THAT
OPPURTUNITY IS LOOKING LESS AND LESS LIKELY. ELSEWHERE, MAINLY VFR
CONDITIONS THRU THE EVENING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE.

AFTER 06Z, BR COULD DEVELOP, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND A WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO MORE NORTHERLY (WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY
5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD). FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMIV, AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KACY, WHICH HAVE A
HIGHER RISK GIVEN SATURATED GROUND.

EXPECT TO RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE BY 18Z TOMORROW. THERE REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, BUT TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT
THIS TIME.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...GENLY VFR. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CHC OF
MVFR/IFR CONDS SAT AFTN/EVE IN SCT SHWRS AND PSBL TSRA. BEST CHCS
ARE FOR THE SRN TAF SITES.  MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED SUN AND TUE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE. LESS CERTAINTY FOR MON, DUE TO MDL DISAGREEMENT. COULD
BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF LOW
PRES ALG STALLED FRONT, SCA MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN
WATERS. HOWEVER,  LTST GUID INDICATES BOTH WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURG THIS PD.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED DURG THIS PD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON (WHICH OCCURRED THIS PAST WEDNESDAY) MIGHT
CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON
FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, LTST GUID
INDICATES WE SHUD STAY JUST BELOW MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA
ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/KLEIN
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG/KLEIN
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021950
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH, AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE OVER THE REGION, WE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT QPF OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE
AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS, NOT TO
MENTION A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (SAVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD UNDER
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET). MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL. THEREFORE
HAVE DECREASED POPS, EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THERE CONTINUES
TO BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL, GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION, IT
WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT FIRST ON IF AND WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE
OF AN OFF SHORE DIRECTION. IN ADDITION, AREAS IN DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ THAT HAD RAIN TODAY MAY STILL HAVE SOME STANDING WATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD HELP FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MIV TO ACY LINE. HOWEVER,
WILL NOT MENTION ANY POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER HEAD BRINGING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. EVEN THOUGH
THERE SHOULD BE LESS CLOUDS TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST),
STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD, A STALLED FRONT WILL BE LOCATED S
OF THE REGION. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOV ALG THE FRONT AND CUD
TRIGGER SOME SHRA/TSRA SAT INTO SAT EVE. THE BEST CHCS ARE OVER
SRN AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT ANY ACTIVITY SHUD BE SCT AND OVER
WITH BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WORST OF
THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS, IF WE HAD TO PICK ONE.

BY SUN, HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND SUN SHUD BE DRY OVER
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA, CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT.

THE MDLS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO MON. THE GFS IS
DRY. THE CMC IS ALSO DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS. RIGHT
NOW, THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER. BUT, FELT COMPELLED TO AT LEAST
INTRODUCE SOME VERY LOW POPS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THINGS WET INTO TUE WHILE THE OTHER MDLS ARE DRY.

THEN, BY WED, MDLS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AGAIN AS A CDFNT
APPROACHES FROM THE W, PRECIP WOULD PROB LINGER INTO THU, BUT
THERE IS STILL A WEEK FOR THE MDLS TO IRON OUT ANY DIFFS IN
FRONTAL TIMING.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAT, WHICH LOOKS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE,
TEMPS SHUD BE NR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z. THE ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE UNDER ANY TRANSIENT SHOWERS WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS (OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS FOR KMIV OR KACY). HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

AFTER 06Z, BR COULD DEVELOP, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND A WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO MORE NORTHERLY (WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY
5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD). FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMIV, AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KACY, WHICH HAVE A
HIGHER RISK GIVEN SATURATED GROUND.

EXPECT TO RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE BY 18Z TOMORROW. THERE REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, BUT TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT
THIS TIME.


OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...GENLY VFR. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CHC OF
MVFR/IFR CONDS SAT AFTN/EVE IN SCT SHWRS AND PSBL TSRA. BEST CHCS
ARE FOR THE SRN TAF SITES.  MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED SUN AND TUE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE. LESS CERTAINTY FOR MON, DUE TO MDL DISAGREEMENT. COULD
BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF LOW
PRES ALG STALLED FRONT, SCA MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN
WATERS. HOWEVER,  LTST GUID INDICATES BOTH WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURG THIS PD.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED DURG THIS PD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON (WHICH OCCURRED THIS PAST WEDNESDAY) MIGHT
CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON
FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, LTST GUID
INDICATES WE SHUD STAY JUST BELOW MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA
ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021950
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH, AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE OVER THE REGION, WE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT QPF OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE
AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS, NOT TO
MENTION A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (SAVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD UNDER
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET). MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL. THEREFORE
HAVE DECREASED POPS, EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THERE CONTINUES
TO BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL, GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION, IT
WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT FIRST ON IF AND WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE
OF AN OFF SHORE DIRECTION. IN ADDITION, AREAS IN DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ THAT HAD RAIN TODAY MAY STILL HAVE SOME STANDING WATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD HELP FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MIV TO ACY LINE. HOWEVER,
WILL NOT MENTION ANY POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER HEAD BRINGING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. EVEN THOUGH
THERE SHOULD BE LESS CLOUDS TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST),
STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD, A STALLED FRONT WILL BE LOCATED S
OF THE REGION. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOV ALG THE FRONT AND CUD
TRIGGER SOME SHRA/TSRA SAT INTO SAT EVE. THE BEST CHCS ARE OVER
SRN AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT ANY ACTIVITY SHUD BE SCT AND OVER
WITH BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WORST OF
THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS, IF WE HAD TO PICK ONE.

BY SUN, HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND SUN SHUD BE DRY OVER
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA, CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT.

THE MDLS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO MON. THE GFS IS
DRY. THE CMC IS ALSO DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS. RIGHT
NOW, THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER. BUT, FELT COMPELLED TO AT LEAST
INTRODUCE SOME VERY LOW POPS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THINGS WET INTO TUE WHILE THE OTHER MDLS ARE DRY.

THEN, BY WED, MDLS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AGAIN AS A CDFNT
APPROACHES FROM THE W, PRECIP WOULD PROB LINGER INTO THU, BUT
THERE IS STILL A WEEK FOR THE MDLS TO IRON OUT ANY DIFFS IN
FRONTAL TIMING.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAT, WHICH LOOKS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE,
TEMPS SHUD BE NR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z. THE ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE UNDER ANY TRANSIENT SHOWERS WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS (OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS FOR KMIV OR KACY). HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

AFTER 06Z, BR COULD DEVELOP, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND A WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO MORE NORTHERLY (WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY
5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD). FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMIV, AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KACY, WHICH HAVE A
HIGHER RISK GIVEN SATURATED GROUND.

EXPECT TO RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE BY 18Z TOMORROW. THERE REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, BUT TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT
THIS TIME.


OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...GENLY VFR. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CHC OF
MVFR/IFR CONDS SAT AFTN/EVE IN SCT SHWRS AND PSBL TSRA. BEST CHCS
ARE FOR THE SRN TAF SITES.  MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED SUN AND TUE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE. LESS CERTAINTY FOR MON, DUE TO MDL DISAGREEMENT. COULD
BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF LOW
PRES ALG STALLED FRONT, SCA MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN
WATERS. HOWEVER,  LTST GUID INDICATES BOTH WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURG THIS PD.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED DURG THIS PD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON (WHICH OCCURRED THIS PAST WEDNESDAY) MIGHT
CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON
FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, LTST GUID
INDICATES WE SHUD STAY JUST BELOW MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA
ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 021950
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
350 PM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD TO OUR NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS
ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG A STALLED FRONT TO THE
SOUTH. ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN MOVE INTO THE
REGION THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
AREA BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
FRONT REMAINS STALLED TO OUR SOUTH, AND WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT
WAVE TROUGH LIFTING NE OVER THE REGION, WE COULD CONTINUE TO SEE
ISOLATED SCATTERED SHOWERS THROUGH THE DAY TIME HOURS. MODELS
CONTINUE TO PAINT QPF OVERNIGHT. HOWEVER, THIS SEEMS A BIT OVERDONE
AS THERE CONTINUES TO BE DRY AIR ADVECTION IN THE LOW LEVELS, NOT TO
MENTION A LACK OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT (SAVE FOR A BRIEF PERIOD UNDER
THE RIGHT REAR QUADRANT OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL JET). MODELS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON ANY MID LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGHS AS WELL. THEREFORE
HAVE DECREASED POPS, EXCEPT IN SOUTHERN DELMARVA AS THERE CONTINUES
TO BE THE CHANCE FOR SHOWER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT.

AS FAR AS FOG POTENTIAL, GIVEN THE LOW LEVEL DRY AIR ADVECTION, IT
WILL BE VERY DEPENDENT FIRST ON IF AND WHEN WINDS WILL SHIFT TO MORE
OF AN OFF SHORE DIRECTION. IN ADDITION, AREAS IN DELMARVA AND
SOUTHERN NJ THAT HAD RAIN TODAY MAY STILL HAVE SOME STANDING WATER
TONIGHT WHICH COULD HELP FOG DEVELOPMENT. FOR NOW, HAVE INCLUDED
PATCHY FOG GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A MIV TO ACY LINE. HOWEVER,
WILL NOT MENTION ANY POTENTIAL FOR DENSE FOG AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE
UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE WIND SHIFT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES OVER HEAD BRINGING MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS, ALTHOUGH STILL A FEW SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND MOVE NORTHEAST INTO OUR REGION. EVEN THOUGH
THERE SHOULD BE LESS CLOUDS TOMORROW (ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHWEST),
STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL GIVEN THE
RELATIVELY COOL AIR MASS STILL IN PLACE.


&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOR THE START OF THE EXTENDD PD, A STALLED FRONT WILL BE LOCATED S
OF THE REGION. LOW PRES IS EXPECTED TO MOV ALG THE FRONT AND CUD
TRIGGER SOME SHRA/TSRA SAT INTO SAT EVE. THE BEST CHCS ARE OVER
SRN AREA. IT STILL APPEARS THAT ANY ACTIVITY SHUD BE SCT AND OVER
WITH BY SUNSET OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER. SAT LOOKS TO BE THE WORST OF
THE TWO WEEKEND DAYS, IF WE HAD TO PICK ONE.

BY SUN, HIGH PRES BEGINS TO BUILD IN AND SUN SHUD BE DRY OVER
MOST, IF NOT ALL OF THE AREA, CONTINUING INTO SUN NIGHT.

THE MDLS HAVE SOME DISAGREEMENT AS WE MOVE INTO MON. THE GFS IS
DRY. THE CMC IS ALSO DRY. THE ECMWF TRIES TO DEVELOP ANOTHER WAVE
OF LOW PRES AND IS SUBSEQUENTLY WETTER THAN THE OTHER MDLS. RIGHT
NOW, THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER. BUT, FELT COMPELLED TO AT LEAST
INTRODUCE SOME VERY LOW POPS. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS VERY LOW. THE
ECMWF KEEPS THINGS WET INTO TUE WHILE THE OTHER MDLS ARE DRY.

THEN, BY WED, MDLS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT AGAIN AS A CDFNT
APPROACHES FROM THE W, PRECIP WOULD PROB LINGER INTO THU, BUT
THERE IS STILL A WEEK FOR THE MDLS TO IRON OUT ANY DIFFS IN
FRONTAL TIMING.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SAT, WHICH LOOKS TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE,
TEMPS SHUD BE NR OR SLIGHTLY ABV NRML THRU THE PD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z. THE ONE EXCEPTION
WILL BE UNDER ANY TRANSIENT SHOWERS WHICH COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS (OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS FOR KMIV OR KACY). HOWEVER THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

AFTER 06Z, BR COULD DEVELOP, BUT THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY
GIVEN DRIER AIR MOVING INTO THE REGION AND A WIND SHIFT FROM
NORTHEASTERLY TO MORE NORTHERLY (WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT, GENERALLY
5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD). FOR NOW HAVE ONLY MENTIONED
MVFR CONDITIONS AT KMIV, AND IFR CONDITIONS AT KACY, WHICH HAVE A
HIGHER RISK GIVEN SATURATED GROUND.

EXPECT TO RETURN TO VFR EVERYWHERE BY 18Z TOMORROW. THERE REMAINS A
SMALL CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, BUT TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN ANY TAFS AT
THIS TIME.


OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT AND SAT...GENLY VFR. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE A CHC OF
MVFR/IFR CONDS SAT AFTN/EVE IN SCT SHWRS AND PSBL TSRA. BEST CHCS
ARE FOR THE SRN TAF SITES.  MDT CONFIDENCE.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...VFR CONDS EXPECTED SUN AND TUE. HIGH
CONFIDENCE. LESS CERTAINTY FOR MON, DUE TO MDL DISAGREEMENT. COULD
BE A BETTER CHANCE OF SHRA/TSRA, BUT CONFIDENCE IS MUCH LOWER.

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD STAY BELOW SCA CRITERIA TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT THROUGH SAT...DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF LOW
PRES ALG STALLED FRONT, SCA MAY BE NEEDED, ESPECIALLY ON THE SRN
WATERS. HOWEVER,  LTST GUID INDICATES BOTH WIND AND SEAS WILL
REMAIN BELOW SCA CRITERIA DURG THIS PD.

SAT NIGHT THRU TUE...NO MARINE FLAGS ANTICIPATED DURG THIS PD.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON (WHICH OCCURRED THIS PAST WEDNESDAY) MIGHT
CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON
FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND SATURDAY. HOWEVER, LTST GUID
INDICATES WE SHUD STAY JUST BELOW MINOR TIDAL FLOODING CRITERIA
ATTM.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...NIERENBERG
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...JOHNSON
LONG TERM...NIERENBERG
AVIATION...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
MARINE...JOHNSON/NIERENBERG
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021335
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN TANDEM SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SAG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED RIGHT AROUND THE SOUTHERN DE STATE LINE.
AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND SLIDES ALONG THE FRONT, WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. FOR
THE MOST PART THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE REGION, AND GENERALLY ONLY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, BUT
CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY, HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO POPS AT
THIS TIME. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING TODAY AS WELL. PW VALUES INCREASE
TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES, SO ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRETTY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SHEAR, DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, WHILE THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
AND PASSES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.
INSTABILITY WANES EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE EAST, WHILE THE GFS
INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE WEST AT 500MB. AT 850MB THE WRF-NMMB
WAS OVERALL BETTER WHILE IT WAS EQUAL BILLING AT 925MB. DP/DT
THE RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO VERIFY STRONGER WITH OVERALL
MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE 500MB FLOW. CONVERSELY THE DP/DT ON THE
FRIDAY SFC WAVE ON THE GFS WAS WEAKER.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER MODELING CONSENSUS WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL A WAY TO GO AS TO WHEN, BUT NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE DRY IN THIS PERIOD. APPLYING A CORRECTION FACTOR
OF TIMING, THE ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW GIVEN THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE
PLAYERS ARE ALREADY IN THE CONUS. THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST GIVEN
THE HIGHER VERIFYING AMPLITUDE FLOW, WHILE THE WRF-NMMB MAY BE
SHOWING ITS NORTHWARD BIAS. ITS NOW THE FURTHEST NORTH MODEL.
PMDHMD SUGGESTS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WE ARE FOLLOWING TO IRON
SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES. THE LATITUDINAL EXTENT HAS IMPLICATIONS
AS THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE WAVE TRAIN.

THUS ON FRIDAY WE SLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS
WHICH IS A BEST FIT TIMING. THUNDER WAS CLOSE TO PREDICTED 925MB
AND 850MB INSTABILITY ALOFT (SFC BASED CAPE NOT MUCH AT ALL) AND
NEAR SWODY2 DELINEATION. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN,
MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS.

FRIDAY NIGHT, GREATEST NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN CHANCES
IN OUR CWA. MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ONLY KEPT WELL SOUTH AGAIN
FOLLOWING SHOWALTER AND 925MB GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN MOST OF OUR CWA AS A TIMING
HEDGE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW IN THE MORNING. ALSO
BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE IN THE ALBEIT FLATTENING 500MB FLOW
FOR THE AFTERNOON. UNLESS ALL MODEL TIMING IS TOO SLOW, THE DAY
IN GENERAL SHOULD BE IMPROVING AS IT GOES ALONG. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOUDIER LONGER.

THEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE SAME FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS ACROSS OUR CWA.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, NOT MUCH CHANGE. OLD BOUNDARIES
NEVER SEEM TO GO AWAY IN THE SUMMER AND THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS IT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD
COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO US FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING A SECOND
SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. THIS CHANGES STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AS THEY SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. GIVEN WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES, WHILE
WARM, IT DOES NOT LOOK OPPRESSIVELY HOT OR VERY HUMID.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MIST/FOG IS DEVELOPING AT MANY AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING,
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR RANGE, WITH SOME IFR. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA TODAY. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE AT
KMIV AND KACY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
AFFECT A TAF SITE COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS, BUT WE HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THE LOWER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE WIND PICKS UP
A DIRECTION, TAFS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND, WHILE TAFS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND, AND THE CENTRAL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND.

MORE MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS NORTHERN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS, POSSIBLY
BECOMING MVFR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND IN DELMARVA. IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO OUR SOUTH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE STALLING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WELL AT 3-4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE STALLED FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HIGHER CHANCES SOUTHERN WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON MIGHT CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTING WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021335
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN TANDEM SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SAG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED RIGHT AROUND THE SOUTHERN DE STATE LINE.
AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND SLIDES ALONG THE FRONT, WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. FOR
THE MOST PART THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE REGION, AND GENERALLY ONLY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, BUT
CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY, HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO POPS AT
THIS TIME. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING TODAY AS WELL. PW VALUES INCREASE
TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES, SO ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRETTY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SHEAR, DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, WHILE THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
AND PASSES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.
INSTABILITY WANES EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE EAST, WHILE THE GFS
INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE WEST AT 500MB. AT 850MB THE WRF-NMMB
WAS OVERALL BETTER WHILE IT WAS EQUAL BILLING AT 925MB. DP/DT
THE RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO VERIFY STRONGER WITH OVERALL
MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE 500MB FLOW. CONVERSELY THE DP/DT ON THE
FRIDAY SFC WAVE ON THE GFS WAS WEAKER.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER MODELING CONSENSUS WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL A WAY TO GO AS TO WHEN, BUT NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE DRY IN THIS PERIOD. APPLYING A CORRECTION FACTOR
OF TIMING, THE ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW GIVEN THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE
PLAYERS ARE ALREADY IN THE CONUS. THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST GIVEN
THE HIGHER VERIFYING AMPLITUDE FLOW, WHILE THE WRF-NMMB MAY BE
SHOWING ITS NORTHWARD BIAS. ITS NOW THE FURTHEST NORTH MODEL.
PMDHMD SUGGESTS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WE ARE FOLLOWING TO IRON
SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES. THE LATITUDINAL EXTENT HAS IMPLICATIONS
AS THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE WAVE TRAIN.

THUS ON FRIDAY WE SLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS
WHICH IS A BEST FIT TIMING. THUNDER WAS CLOSE TO PREDICTED 925MB
AND 850MB INSTABILITY ALOFT (SFC BASED CAPE NOT MUCH AT ALL) AND
NEAR SWODY2 DELINEATION. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN,
MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS.

FRIDAY NIGHT, GREATEST NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN CHANCES
IN OUR CWA. MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ONLY KEPT WELL SOUTH AGAIN
FOLLOWING SHOWALTER AND 925MB GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN MOST OF OUR CWA AS A TIMING
HEDGE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW IN THE MORNING. ALSO
BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE IN THE ALBEIT FLATTENING 500MB FLOW
FOR THE AFTERNOON. UNLESS ALL MODEL TIMING IS TOO SLOW, THE DAY
IN GENERAL SHOULD BE IMPROVING AS IT GOES ALONG. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOUDIER LONGER.

THEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE SAME FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS ACROSS OUR CWA.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, NOT MUCH CHANGE. OLD BOUNDARIES
NEVER SEEM TO GO AWAY IN THE SUMMER AND THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS IT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD
COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO US FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING A SECOND
SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. THIS CHANGES STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AS THEY SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. GIVEN WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES, WHILE
WARM, IT DOES NOT LOOK OPPRESSIVELY HOT OR VERY HUMID.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MIST/FOG IS DEVELOPING AT MANY AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING,
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR RANGE, WITH SOME IFR. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA TODAY. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE AT
KMIV AND KACY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
AFFECT A TAF SITE COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS, BUT WE HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THE LOWER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE WIND PICKS UP
A DIRECTION, TAFS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND, WHILE TAFS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND, AND THE CENTRAL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND.

MORE MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS NORTHERN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS, POSSIBLY
BECOMING MVFR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND IN DELMARVA. IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO OUR SOUTH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE STALLING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WELL AT 3-4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE STALLED FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HIGHER CHANCES SOUTHERN WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON MIGHT CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTING WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021335
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN TANDEM SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SAG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED RIGHT AROUND THE SOUTHERN DE STATE LINE.
AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND SLIDES ALONG THE FRONT, WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. FOR
THE MOST PART THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE REGION, AND GENERALLY ONLY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, BUT
CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY, HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO POPS AT
THIS TIME. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING TODAY AS WELL. PW VALUES INCREASE
TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES, SO ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRETTY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SHEAR, DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, WHILE THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
AND PASSES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.
INSTABILITY WANES EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE EAST, WHILE THE GFS
INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE WEST AT 500MB. AT 850MB THE WRF-NMMB
WAS OVERALL BETTER WHILE IT WAS EQUAL BILLING AT 925MB. DP/DT
THE RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO VERIFY STRONGER WITH OVERALL
MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE 500MB FLOW. CONVERSELY THE DP/DT ON THE
FRIDAY SFC WAVE ON THE GFS WAS WEAKER.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER MODELING CONSENSUS WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL A WAY TO GO AS TO WHEN, BUT NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE DRY IN THIS PERIOD. APPLYING A CORRECTION FACTOR
OF TIMING, THE ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW GIVEN THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE
PLAYERS ARE ALREADY IN THE CONUS. THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST GIVEN
THE HIGHER VERIFYING AMPLITUDE FLOW, WHILE THE WRF-NMMB MAY BE
SHOWING ITS NORTHWARD BIAS. ITS NOW THE FURTHEST NORTH MODEL.
PMDHMD SUGGESTS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WE ARE FOLLOWING TO IRON
SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES. THE LATITUDINAL EXTENT HAS IMPLICATIONS
AS THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE WAVE TRAIN.

THUS ON FRIDAY WE SLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS
WHICH IS A BEST FIT TIMING. THUNDER WAS CLOSE TO PREDICTED 925MB
AND 850MB INSTABILITY ALOFT (SFC BASED CAPE NOT MUCH AT ALL) AND
NEAR SWODY2 DELINEATION. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN,
MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS.

FRIDAY NIGHT, GREATEST NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN CHANCES
IN OUR CWA. MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ONLY KEPT WELL SOUTH AGAIN
FOLLOWING SHOWALTER AND 925MB GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN MOST OF OUR CWA AS A TIMING
HEDGE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW IN THE MORNING. ALSO
BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE IN THE ALBEIT FLATTENING 500MB FLOW
FOR THE AFTERNOON. UNLESS ALL MODEL TIMING IS TOO SLOW, THE DAY
IN GENERAL SHOULD BE IMPROVING AS IT GOES ALONG. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOUDIER LONGER.

THEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE SAME FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS ACROSS OUR CWA.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, NOT MUCH CHANGE. OLD BOUNDARIES
NEVER SEEM TO GO AWAY IN THE SUMMER AND THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS IT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD
COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO US FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING A SECOND
SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. THIS CHANGES STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AS THEY SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. GIVEN WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES, WHILE
WARM, IT DOES NOT LOOK OPPRESSIVELY HOT OR VERY HUMID.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MIST/FOG IS DEVELOPING AT MANY AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING,
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR RANGE, WITH SOME IFR. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA TODAY. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE AT
KMIV AND KACY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
AFFECT A TAF SITE COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS, BUT WE HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THE LOWER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE WIND PICKS UP
A DIRECTION, TAFS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND, WHILE TAFS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND, AND THE CENTRAL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND.

MORE MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS NORTHERN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS, POSSIBLY
BECOMING MVFR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND IN DELMARVA. IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO OUR SOUTH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE STALLING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WELL AT 3-4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE STALLED FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HIGHER CHANCES SOUTHERN WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON MIGHT CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTING WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021335
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN TANDEM SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SAG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED RIGHT AROUND THE SOUTHERN DE STATE LINE.
AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND SLIDES ALONG THE FRONT, WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. FOR
THE MOST PART THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE REGION, AND GENERALLY ONLY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, BUT
CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY, HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO POPS AT
THIS TIME. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING TODAY AS WELL. PW VALUES INCREASE
TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES, SO ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRETTY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SHEAR, DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, WHILE THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
AND PASSES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.
INSTABILITY WANES EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE EAST, WHILE THE GFS
INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE WEST AT 500MB. AT 850MB THE WRF-NMMB
WAS OVERALL BETTER WHILE IT WAS EQUAL BILLING AT 925MB. DP/DT
THE RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO VERIFY STRONGER WITH OVERALL
MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE 500MB FLOW. CONVERSELY THE DP/DT ON THE
FRIDAY SFC WAVE ON THE GFS WAS WEAKER.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER MODELING CONSENSUS WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL A WAY TO GO AS TO WHEN, BUT NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE DRY IN THIS PERIOD. APPLYING A CORRECTION FACTOR
OF TIMING, THE ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW GIVEN THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE
PLAYERS ARE ALREADY IN THE CONUS. THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST GIVEN
THE HIGHER VERIFYING AMPLITUDE FLOW, WHILE THE WRF-NMMB MAY BE
SHOWING ITS NORTHWARD BIAS. ITS NOW THE FURTHEST NORTH MODEL.
PMDHMD SUGGESTS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WE ARE FOLLOWING TO IRON
SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES. THE LATITUDINAL EXTENT HAS IMPLICATIONS
AS THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE WAVE TRAIN.

THUS ON FRIDAY WE SLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS
WHICH IS A BEST FIT TIMING. THUNDER WAS CLOSE TO PREDICTED 925MB
AND 850MB INSTABILITY ALOFT (SFC BASED CAPE NOT MUCH AT ALL) AND
NEAR SWODY2 DELINEATION. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN,
MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS.

FRIDAY NIGHT, GREATEST NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN CHANCES
IN OUR CWA. MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ONLY KEPT WELL SOUTH AGAIN
FOLLOWING SHOWALTER AND 925MB GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN MOST OF OUR CWA AS A TIMING
HEDGE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW IN THE MORNING. ALSO
BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE IN THE ALBEIT FLATTENING 500MB FLOW
FOR THE AFTERNOON. UNLESS ALL MODEL TIMING IS TOO SLOW, THE DAY
IN GENERAL SHOULD BE IMPROVING AS IT GOES ALONG. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOUDIER LONGER.

THEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE SAME FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS ACROSS OUR CWA.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, NOT MUCH CHANGE. OLD BOUNDARIES
NEVER SEEM TO GO AWAY IN THE SUMMER AND THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS IT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD
COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO US FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING A SECOND
SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. THIS CHANGES STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AS THEY SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. GIVEN WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES, WHILE
WARM, IT DOES NOT LOOK OPPRESSIVELY HOT OR VERY HUMID.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MIST/FOG IS DEVELOPING AT MANY AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING,
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR RANGE, WITH SOME IFR. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA TODAY. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE AT
KMIV AND KACY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
AFFECT A TAF SITE COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS, BUT WE HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THE LOWER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE WIND PICKS UP
A DIRECTION, TAFS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND, WHILE TAFS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND, AND THE CENTRAL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND.

MORE MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS NORTHERN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS, POSSIBLY
BECOMING MVFR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND IN DELMARVA. IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO OUR SOUTH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE STALLING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WELL AT 3-4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE STALLED FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HIGHER CHANCES SOUTHERN WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON MIGHT CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTING WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021335
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN TANDEM SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SAG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED RIGHT AROUND THE SOUTHERN DE STATE LINE.
AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND SLIDES ALONG THE FRONT, WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. FOR
THE MOST PART THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE REGION, AND GENERALLY ONLY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, BUT
CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY, HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO POPS AT
THIS TIME. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING TODAY AS WELL. PW VALUES INCREASE
TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES, SO ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRETTY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SHEAR, DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, WHILE THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
AND PASSES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.
INSTABILITY WANES EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE EAST, WHILE THE GFS
INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE WEST AT 500MB. AT 850MB THE WRF-NMMB
WAS OVERALL BETTER WHILE IT WAS EQUAL BILLING AT 925MB. DP/DT
THE RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO VERIFY STRONGER WITH OVERALL
MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE 500MB FLOW. CONVERSELY THE DP/DT ON THE
FRIDAY SFC WAVE ON THE GFS WAS WEAKER.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER MODELING CONSENSUS WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL A WAY TO GO AS TO WHEN, BUT NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE DRY IN THIS PERIOD. APPLYING A CORRECTION FACTOR
OF TIMING, THE ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW GIVEN THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE
PLAYERS ARE ALREADY IN THE CONUS. THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST GIVEN
THE HIGHER VERIFYING AMPLITUDE FLOW, WHILE THE WRF-NMMB MAY BE
SHOWING ITS NORTHWARD BIAS. ITS NOW THE FURTHEST NORTH MODEL.
PMDHMD SUGGESTS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WE ARE FOLLOWING TO IRON
SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES. THE LATITUDINAL EXTENT HAS IMPLICATIONS
AS THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE WAVE TRAIN.

THUS ON FRIDAY WE SLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS
WHICH IS A BEST FIT TIMING. THUNDER WAS CLOSE TO PREDICTED 925MB
AND 850MB INSTABILITY ALOFT (SFC BASED CAPE NOT MUCH AT ALL) AND
NEAR SWODY2 DELINEATION. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN,
MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS.

FRIDAY NIGHT, GREATEST NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN CHANCES
IN OUR CWA. MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ONLY KEPT WELL SOUTH AGAIN
FOLLOWING SHOWALTER AND 925MB GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN MOST OF OUR CWA AS A TIMING
HEDGE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW IN THE MORNING. ALSO
BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE IN THE ALBEIT FLATTENING 500MB FLOW
FOR THE AFTERNOON. UNLESS ALL MODEL TIMING IS TOO SLOW, THE DAY
IN GENERAL SHOULD BE IMPROVING AS IT GOES ALONG. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOUDIER LONGER.

THEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE SAME FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS ACROSS OUR CWA.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, NOT MUCH CHANGE. OLD BOUNDARIES
NEVER SEEM TO GO AWAY IN THE SUMMER AND THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS IT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD
COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO US FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING A SECOND
SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. THIS CHANGES STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AS THEY SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. GIVEN WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES, WHILE
WARM, IT DOES NOT LOOK OPPRESSIVELY HOT OR VERY HUMID.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MIST/FOG IS DEVELOPING AT MANY AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING,
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR RANGE, WITH SOME IFR. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA TODAY. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE AT
KMIV AND KACY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
AFFECT A TAF SITE COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS, BUT WE HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THE LOWER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE WIND PICKS UP
A DIRECTION, TAFS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND, WHILE TAFS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND, AND THE CENTRAL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND.

MORE MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS NORTHERN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS, POSSIBLY
BECOMING MVFR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND IN DELMARVA. IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO OUR SOUTH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE STALLING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WELL AT 3-4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE STALLED FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HIGHER CHANCES SOUTHERN WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON MIGHT CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTING WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021335
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
935 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN TANDEM SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SAG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT HAS STALLED RIGHT AROUND THE SOUTHERN DE STATE LINE.
AS THE LOW DEVELOPS AND SLIDES ALONG THE FRONT, WILL CONTINUE TO
SEE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE FRONT. FOR
THE MOST PART THIS PRECIP SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN HALF
OF THE REGION, AND GENERALLY ONLY THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON, BUT
CONSIDERING THE UNCERTAINTY, HAVE NOT MADE ANY CHANGES TO POPS AT
THIS TIME. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY, BUT
THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR ISOLATED/SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING TODAY AS WELL. PW VALUES INCREASE
TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES, SO ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRETTY
EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT OF
SHEAR, DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, WHILE THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
AND PASSES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.
INSTABILITY WANES EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE EAST, WHILE THE GFS
INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE WEST AT 500MB. AT 850MB THE WRF-NMMB
WAS OVERALL BETTER WHILE IT WAS EQUAL BILLING AT 925MB. DP/DT
THE RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO VERIFY STRONGER WITH OVERALL
MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE 500MB FLOW. CONVERSELY THE DP/DT ON THE
FRIDAY SFC WAVE ON THE GFS WAS WEAKER.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER MODELING CONSENSUS WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL A WAY TO GO AS TO WHEN, BUT NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE DRY IN THIS PERIOD. APPLYING A CORRECTION FACTOR
OF TIMING, THE ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW GIVEN THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE
PLAYERS ARE ALREADY IN THE CONUS. THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST GIVEN
THE HIGHER VERIFYING AMPLITUDE FLOW, WHILE THE WRF-NMMB MAY BE
SHOWING ITS NORTHWARD BIAS. ITS NOW THE FURTHEST NORTH MODEL.
PMDHMD SUGGESTS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WE ARE FOLLOWING TO IRON
SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES. THE LATITUDINAL EXTENT HAS IMPLICATIONS
AS THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE WAVE TRAIN.

THUS ON FRIDAY WE SLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS
WHICH IS A BEST FIT TIMING. THUNDER WAS CLOSE TO PREDICTED 925MB
AND 850MB INSTABILITY ALOFT (SFC BASED CAPE NOT MUCH AT ALL) AND
NEAR SWODY2 DELINEATION. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN,
MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS.

FRIDAY NIGHT, GREATEST NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN CHANCES
IN OUR CWA. MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ONLY KEPT WELL SOUTH AGAIN
FOLLOWING SHOWALTER AND 925MB GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN MOST OF OUR CWA AS A TIMING
HEDGE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW IN THE MORNING. ALSO
BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE IN THE ALBEIT FLATTENING 500MB FLOW
FOR THE AFTERNOON. UNLESS ALL MODEL TIMING IS TOO SLOW, THE DAY
IN GENERAL SHOULD BE IMPROVING AS IT GOES ALONG. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOUDIER LONGER.

THEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE SAME FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS ACROSS OUR CWA.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, NOT MUCH CHANGE. OLD BOUNDARIES
NEVER SEEM TO GO AWAY IN THE SUMMER AND THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS IT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD
COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO US FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING A SECOND
SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. THIS CHANGES STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AS THEY SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. GIVEN WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES, WHILE
WARM, IT DOES NOT LOOK OPPRESSIVELY HOT OR VERY HUMID.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MIST/FOG IS DEVELOPING AT MANY AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING,
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR RANGE, WITH SOME IFR. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA TODAY. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE AT
KMIV AND KACY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
AFFECT A TAF SITE COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS, BUT WE HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THE LOWER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE WIND PICKS UP
A DIRECTION, TAFS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND, WHILE TAFS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND, AND THE CENTRAL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND.

MORE MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS NORTHERN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS, POSSIBLY
BECOMING MVFR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND IN DELMARVA. IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO OUR SOUTH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE STALLING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WELL AT 3-4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE STALLED FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HIGHER CHANCES SOUTHERN WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON MIGHT CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTING WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 021140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
740 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN TANDEM SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SAG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH THIS MORNING,
BEFORE STALLING OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT WE WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
SLIDE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY, BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING TODAY AS WELL. PW
VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES, SO ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE PRETTY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SHEAR, DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, WHILE THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
AND PASSES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.
INSTABILITY WANES EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE EAST, WHILE THE GFS
INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE WEST AT 500MB. AT 850MB THE WRF-NMMB
WAS OVERALL BETTER WHILE IT WAS EQUAL BILLING AT 925MB. DP/DT
THE RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO VERIFY STRONGER WITH OVERALL
MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE 500MB FLOW. CONVERSELY THE DP/DT ON THE
FRIDAY SFC WAVE ON THE GFS WAS WEAKER.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER MODELING CONSENSUS WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL A WAY TO GO AS TO WHEN, BUT NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE DRY IN THIS PERIOD. APPLYING A CORRECTION FACTOR
OF TIMING, THE ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW GIVEN THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE
PLAYERS ARE ALREADY IN THE CONUS. THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST GIVEN
THE HIGHER VERIFYING AMPLITUDE FLOW, WHILE THE WRF-NMMB MAY BE
SHOWING ITS NORTHWARD BIAS. ITS NOW THE FURTHEST NORTH MODEL.
PMDHMD SUGGESTS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WE ARE FOLLOWING TO IRON
SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES. THE LATITUDINAL EXTENT HAS IMPLICATIONS
AS THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE WAVE TRAIN.

THUS ON FRIDAY WE SLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS
WHICH IS A BEST FIT TIMING. THUNDER WAS CLOSE TO PREDICTED 925MB
AND 850MB INSTABILITY ALOFT (SFC BASED CAPE NOT MUCH AT ALL) AND
NEAR SWODY2 DELINEATION. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN,
MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS.

FRIDAY NIGHT, GREATEST NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN CHANCES
IN OUR CWA. MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ONLY KEPT WELL SOUTH AGAIN
FOLLOWING SHOWALTER AND 925MB GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN MOST OF OUR CWA AS A TIMING
HEDGE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW IN THE MORNING. ALSO
BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE IN THE ALBEIT FLATTENING 500MB FLOW
FOR THE AFTERNOON. UNLESS ALL MODEL TIMING IS TOO SLOW, THE DAY
IN GENERAL SHOULD BE IMPROVING AS IT GOES ALONG. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOUDIER LONGER.

THEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE SAME FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS ACROSS OUR CWA.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, NOT MUCH CHANGE. OLD BOUNDARIES
NEVER SEEM TO GO AWAY IN THE SUMMER AND THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS IT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD
COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO US FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING A SECOND
SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. THIS CHANGES STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AS THEY SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. GIVEN WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES, WHILE
WARM, IT DOES NOT LOOK OPPRESSIVELY HOT OR VERY HUMID.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MIST/FOG IS DEVELOPING AT MANY AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING,
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR RANGE, WITH SOME IFR. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA TODAY. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE AT
KMIV AND KACY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
AFFECT A TAF SITE COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS, BUT WE HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THE LOWER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE WIND PICKS UP
A DIRECTION, TAFS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND, WHILE TAFS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND, AND THE CENTRAL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND.

MORE MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS NORTHERN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS, POSSIBLY
BECOMING MVFR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND IN DELMARVA. IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO OUR SOUTH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE STALLING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WELL AT 3-4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE STALLED FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HIGHER CHANCES SOUTHERN WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON MIGHT CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTING WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 021140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
740 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN TANDEM SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SAG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH THIS MORNING,
BEFORE STALLING OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT WE WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
SLIDE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY, BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING TODAY AS WELL. PW
VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES, SO ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE PRETTY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SHEAR, DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, WHILE THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
AND PASSES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.
INSTABILITY WANES EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE EAST, WHILE THE GFS
INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE WEST AT 500MB. AT 850MB THE WRF-NMMB
WAS OVERALL BETTER WHILE IT WAS EQUAL BILLING AT 925MB. DP/DT
THE RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO VERIFY STRONGER WITH OVERALL
MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE 500MB FLOW. CONVERSELY THE DP/DT ON THE
FRIDAY SFC WAVE ON THE GFS WAS WEAKER.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER MODELING CONSENSUS WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL A WAY TO GO AS TO WHEN, BUT NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE DRY IN THIS PERIOD. APPLYING A CORRECTION FACTOR
OF TIMING, THE ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW GIVEN THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE
PLAYERS ARE ALREADY IN THE CONUS. THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST GIVEN
THE HIGHER VERIFYING AMPLITUDE FLOW, WHILE THE WRF-NMMB MAY BE
SHOWING ITS NORTHWARD BIAS. ITS NOW THE FURTHEST NORTH MODEL.
PMDHMD SUGGESTS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WE ARE FOLLOWING TO IRON
SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES. THE LATITUDINAL EXTENT HAS IMPLICATIONS
AS THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE WAVE TRAIN.

THUS ON FRIDAY WE SLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS
WHICH IS A BEST FIT TIMING. THUNDER WAS CLOSE TO PREDICTED 925MB
AND 850MB INSTABILITY ALOFT (SFC BASED CAPE NOT MUCH AT ALL) AND
NEAR SWODY2 DELINEATION. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN,
MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS.

FRIDAY NIGHT, GREATEST NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN CHANCES
IN OUR CWA. MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ONLY KEPT WELL SOUTH AGAIN
FOLLOWING SHOWALTER AND 925MB GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN MOST OF OUR CWA AS A TIMING
HEDGE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW IN THE MORNING. ALSO
BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE IN THE ALBEIT FLATTENING 500MB FLOW
FOR THE AFTERNOON. UNLESS ALL MODEL TIMING IS TOO SLOW, THE DAY
IN GENERAL SHOULD BE IMPROVING AS IT GOES ALONG. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOUDIER LONGER.

THEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE SAME FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS ACROSS OUR CWA.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, NOT MUCH CHANGE. OLD BOUNDARIES
NEVER SEEM TO GO AWAY IN THE SUMMER AND THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS IT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD
COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO US FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING A SECOND
SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. THIS CHANGES STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AS THEY SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. GIVEN WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES, WHILE
WARM, IT DOES NOT LOOK OPPRESSIVELY HOT OR VERY HUMID.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MIST/FOG IS DEVELOPING AT MANY AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING,
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR RANGE, WITH SOME IFR. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA TODAY. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE AT
KMIV AND KACY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
AFFECT A TAF SITE COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS, BUT WE HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THE LOWER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE WIND PICKS UP
A DIRECTION, TAFS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND, WHILE TAFS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND, AND THE CENTRAL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND.

MORE MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS NORTHERN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS, POSSIBLY
BECOMING MVFR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND IN DELMARVA. IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO OUR SOUTH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE STALLING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WELL AT 3-4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE STALLED FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HIGHER CHANCES SOUTHERN WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON MIGHT CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTING WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




000
FXUS61 KPHI 021140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
740 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN TANDEM SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SAG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH THIS MORNING,
BEFORE STALLING OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT WE WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
SLIDE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY, BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING TODAY AS WELL. PW
VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES, SO ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE PRETTY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SHEAR, DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, WHILE THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
AND PASSES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.
INSTABILITY WANES EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE EAST, WHILE THE GFS
INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE WEST AT 500MB. AT 850MB THE WRF-NMMB
WAS OVERALL BETTER WHILE IT WAS EQUAL BILLING AT 925MB. DP/DT
THE RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO VERIFY STRONGER WITH OVERALL
MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE 500MB FLOW. CONVERSELY THE DP/DT ON THE
FRIDAY SFC WAVE ON THE GFS WAS WEAKER.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER MODELING CONSENSUS WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL A WAY TO GO AS TO WHEN, BUT NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE DRY IN THIS PERIOD. APPLYING A CORRECTION FACTOR
OF TIMING, THE ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW GIVEN THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE
PLAYERS ARE ALREADY IN THE CONUS. THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST GIVEN
THE HIGHER VERIFYING AMPLITUDE FLOW, WHILE THE WRF-NMMB MAY BE
SHOWING ITS NORTHWARD BIAS. ITS NOW THE FURTHEST NORTH MODEL.
PMDHMD SUGGESTS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WE ARE FOLLOWING TO IRON
SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES. THE LATITUDINAL EXTENT HAS IMPLICATIONS
AS THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE WAVE TRAIN.

THUS ON FRIDAY WE SLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS
WHICH IS A BEST FIT TIMING. THUNDER WAS CLOSE TO PREDICTED 925MB
AND 850MB INSTABILITY ALOFT (SFC BASED CAPE NOT MUCH AT ALL) AND
NEAR SWODY2 DELINEATION. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN,
MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS.

FRIDAY NIGHT, GREATEST NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN CHANCES
IN OUR CWA. MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ONLY KEPT WELL SOUTH AGAIN
FOLLOWING SHOWALTER AND 925MB GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN MOST OF OUR CWA AS A TIMING
HEDGE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW IN THE MORNING. ALSO
BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE IN THE ALBEIT FLATTENING 500MB FLOW
FOR THE AFTERNOON. UNLESS ALL MODEL TIMING IS TOO SLOW, THE DAY
IN GENERAL SHOULD BE IMPROVING AS IT GOES ALONG. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOUDIER LONGER.

THEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE SAME FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS ACROSS OUR CWA.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, NOT MUCH CHANGE. OLD BOUNDARIES
NEVER SEEM TO GO AWAY IN THE SUMMER AND THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS IT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD
COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO US FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING A SECOND
SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. THIS CHANGES STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AS THEY SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. GIVEN WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES, WHILE
WARM, IT DOES NOT LOOK OPPRESSIVELY HOT OR VERY HUMID.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MIST/FOG IS DEVELOPING AT MANY AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING,
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR RANGE, WITH SOME IFR. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA TODAY. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE AT
KMIV AND KACY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
AFFECT A TAF SITE COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS, BUT WE HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THE LOWER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE WIND PICKS UP
A DIRECTION, TAFS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND, WHILE TAFS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND, AND THE CENTRAL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND.

MORE MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS NORTHERN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS, POSSIBLY
BECOMING MVFR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND IN DELMARVA. IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO OUR SOUTH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE STALLING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WELL AT 3-4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE STALLED FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HIGHER CHANCES SOUTHERN WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON MIGHT CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTING WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...



000
FXUS61 KPHI 021140
AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
740 AM EDT THU JUL 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT WILL STALL TO THE SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA
WHILE A WEAK LOW PRESSURE WAVE MOVES ALONG IT TODAY. A HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SLIDE ACROSS NEW YORK STATE AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AS ANOTHER STRONGER WAVE
OF LOW PRESSURE FOLLOWS IN TANDEM SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
AS ANOTHER HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS INTO THE GREAT LAKES
OVER THE WEEKEND, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO
SAG FARTHER TO THE SOUTH. THE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM SHOULD
PASS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. THEN A COLD FRONT FROM
THE NORTHERN PLAINS SHOULD REACH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES BY
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH THIS MORNING,
BEFORE STALLING OUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS
FORECAST TO DEVELOP ALONG THE BOUNDARY TO OUR SOUTH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND SHOULD STAY SOUTH OF THE AREA, BUT WE WILL REMAIN ON
THE NORTHERN EDGE. A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES WILL
SLIDE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY WHICH SHOULD ALLOW
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA, ESPECIALLY SOUTHERN
NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA. THERE IS NOT A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY, BUT THERE SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR
ISOLATED/SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP DURING TODAY AS WELL. PW
VALUES INCREASE TO 1.5-2.0 INCHES, SO ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE PRETTY EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. ALTHOUGH THERE IS A FAIR AMOUNT
OF SHEAR, DUE TO THE LIMITED INSTABILITY, WE DO NOT EXPECT MUCH/IF
ANY SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH ANY THUNDERSTORMS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS.

HIGHS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS, MOSGUIDE, AND BLENDED 925 MB ECMWF
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/...
THE FRONT REMAINS STALLED OUT TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT, WHILE THE LOW
PRESSURE THAT DEVELOPS DURING THE DAY MOVES EASTWARD ALONG THE FRONT
AND PASSES OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT. THERE REMAINS A COUPLE OF SHORT
WAVE/VORTICITY IMPULSES THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT
WHICH SHOULD CONTINUE TO ALLOW SCATTERED SHOWERS TO DEVELOP ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE AREA, MAINLY SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA.
INSTABILITY WANES EVEN MORE OVERNIGHT, BUT WE WILL KEEP ISOLATED
THUNDER IN THE FORECAST AS THERE MAY STILL BE SOME RUMBLES OF
THUNDER THROUGH THE NIGHT.

LOWS ARE A BLEND OF MAV/MET MOS AND MOSGUIDE.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE WRF-NMMB INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE EAST, WHILE THE GFS
INITIALIZED BETTER IN THE WEST AT 500MB. AT 850MB THE WRF-NMMB
WAS OVERALL BETTER WHILE IT WAS EQUAL BILLING AT 925MB. DP/DT
THE RIDGE OUT WEST CONTINUES TO VERIFY STRONGER WITH OVERALL
MORE AMPLITUDE TO THE 500MB FLOW. CONVERSELY THE DP/DT ON THE
FRIDAY SFC WAVE ON THE GFS WAS WEAKER.

THERE IS SLIGHTLY CLOSER MODELING CONSENSUS WITH THE LATE WEEK
SYSTEM. THERE IS STILL A WAY TO GO AS TO WHEN, BUT NONE OF
THE MODELS ARE DRY IN THIS PERIOD. APPLYING A CORRECTION FACTOR
OF TIMING, THE ECMWF APPEARS TOO SLOW GIVEN THAT NEARLY ALL OF THE
PLAYERS ARE ALREADY IN THE CONUS. THE GFS APPEARS TOO FAST GIVEN
THE HIGHER VERIFYING AMPLITUDE FLOW, WHILE THE WRF-NMMB MAY BE
SHOWING ITS NORTHWARD BIAS. ITS NOW THE FURTHEST NORTH MODEL.
PMDHMD SUGGESTS A GFS/ECMWF BLEND WHICH WE ARE FOLLOWING TO IRON
SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES. THE LATITUDINAL EXTENT HAS IMPLICATIONS
AS THERE WILL BE SOME HEAVY RAIN CLOSER TO THE WAVE TRAIN.

THUS ON FRIDAY WE SLOWED THE GFS SOLUTION DOWN BY ABOUT 6 HOURS
WHICH IS A BEST FIT TIMING. THUNDER WAS CLOSE TO PREDICTED 925MB
AND 850MB INSTABILITY ALOFT (SFC BASED CAPE NOT MUCH AT ALL) AND
NEAR SWODY2 DELINEATION. BECAUSE OF THE SLOWER ARRIVAL OF PCPN,
MAX TEMPS ARE HIGHER THAN GFS MOS.

FRIDAY NIGHT, GREATEST NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF PCPN CHANCES
IN OUR CWA. MENTION OF THUNDER WAS ONLY KEPT WELL SOUTH AGAIN
FOLLOWING SHOWALTER AND 925MB GUIDANCE.

FOR SATURDAY WE KEPT CHANCE POPS IN MOST OF OUR CWA AS A TIMING
HEDGE OF THE DEPARTING SFC LOW IN THE MORNING. ALSO
BECAUSE OF THE SHORT WAVE IN THE ALBEIT FLATTENING 500MB FLOW
FOR THE AFTERNOON. UNLESS ALL MODEL TIMING IS TOO SLOW, THE DAY
IN GENERAL SHOULD BE IMPROVING AS IT GOES ALONG. THE ONSHORE FLOW
WOULD KEEP COASTAL AREAS CLOUDIER LONGER.

THEN THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND IS EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY AS THE WAVE MOVES OFFSHORE AND A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM
BUILDS IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THE SAME FOR MONDAY AS THE HIGH
DRIFTS ACROSS OUR CWA.

FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM, NOT MUCH CHANGE. OLD BOUNDARIES
NEVER SEEM TO GO AWAY IN THE SUMMER AND THE ECMWF IN PARTICULAR
BRINGS IT NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY. MEANWHILE, A COLD FRONT SHOULD
COME CLOSE ENOUGH TO US FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO BRING A SECOND
SOURCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR WEDNESDAY.

TEMPERATURES AT THE START OF THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND SHOULD AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. THIS CHANGES STARTING WITH THE DAYTIME
HIGHS ON SUNDAY AS THEY SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE
REST OF THE LONG TERM. GIVEN WE REMAIN IN THE WESTERLIES, WHILE
WARM, IT DOES NOT LOOK OPPRESSIVELY HOT OR VERY HUMID.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

PATCHY MIST/FOG IS DEVELOPING AT MANY AIRPORTS EARLY THIS MORNING,
REDUCING VSBYS TO MVFR RANGE, WITH SOME IFR. THIS SHOULD BURN OFF
IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AND LEAD TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF
THE DAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY AND THE DELMARVA TODAY. A FEW OF THE SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP
INTO THUNDERSTORMS. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR LIGHTNING WILL BE AT
KMIV AND KACY THIS AFTERNOON. ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO
AFFECT A TAF SITE COULD TEMPORARILY REDUCE VSBYS/CIGS, BUT WE HAVE
NOT INCLUDED THE LOWER CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME.

WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING ARE GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AND
SHOULD REMAIN SO THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING. ONCE THE WIND PICKS UP
A DIRECTION, TAFS ACROSS THE WEST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A WEST-
SOUTHWEST WIND, WHILE TAFS ACROSS THE EAST SHOULD HAVE MORE OF AN
EAST-SOUTHEAST WIND, AND THE CENTRAL TAF SITES SHOULD HAVE MORE OF A
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST WIND.

MORE MIST/FOG IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING AS WINDS SHOULD BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE/CALM AGAIN.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS NORTHERN AIRPORTS/TERMINALS, POSSIBLY
BECOMING MVFR SOUTHERN AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR SUB VFR
CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY FOR AIRPORTS AND TERMINALS CLOSER TO THE
COAST AND IN DELMARVA. IMPROVEMENT AS THE DAY CONTINUES SATURDAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...PRIMARILY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.MARINE...
THE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SAG TO OUR SOUTH THIS
MORNING, BEFORE STALLING OUT THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS, AND SEAS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY
LEVELS AS WELL AT 3-4 FEET.

OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...PENDING THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM ON THE STALLED FRONT, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS COULD
OCCUR ON THE OCEAN WATERS. HIGHER CHANCES SOUTHERN WATERS.

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...SUB SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE INCREASES SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
THE ONSHORE FLOW COMBINING WITH RATHER ROBUST SPRING TIDES
FOLLOWING THE FULL MOON MIGHT CAUSE MINOR TIDAL FLOODING WITH THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON FRIDAY (THE MORE LIKELY ONE) AND
SATURDAY. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE STRENGTH OF THE DEPARTING WAVES
OF LOW PRESSURE.

&&

.RIP CURRENTS...
THE COMBINATION OF AN ONSHORE FLOW AND THE FULL MOON IS EXPECTED
TO INCREASE THE STRENGTH OF RIP CURRENTS ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY,
BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE ON SUNDAY. WE THINK THAT ONE OR
BOTH DAYS COULD REACH MODERATE RISK LEVELS.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...GIGI/O`HARA
NEAR TERM...ROBERTSON
SHORT TERM...ROBERTSON
LONG TERM...GIGI
AVIATION...GIGI/JOHNSON/ROBERTSON
MARINE...GIGI/ROBERTSON
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
RIP CURRENTS...




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