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000
FXUS65 KABQ 261122 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
522 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LESS COVERAGE
OF -TSRA/-SHRA TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. FAVORED AREAS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS...BUT VIRGA AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE MOST COMMON. HRRR SUGGESTS KFMN MAY BE IMPACTED
LATE THIS AFTN AS WELL...SO HAVE ADDED A VCSH TO THE TAF.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...320 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
TODAY...LIMITING SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO WARM A FEW DEGREES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
AREAL COVERAGE THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOME MORE PLENTIFUL.
THIS WETTER AND MORE ACTIVE PERIOD WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING THE CENTRAL AND EAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RANGE FROM NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT A MINIMUM TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
A SHORT WAVE VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL BRUSH NRN NM...AND
HIGHEST GUIDANCE POPS FOR TODAY ARE AIMED AT THE NRN BORDER OF THE
STATE AS WELL AS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST. STEERING FLOW
WOULD TAKE CELLS OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND TO THE EAST...A FEW MAY
SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE NE PLAINS/PECOS VALLEY BY THIS EVENING
AND SUCCEEDING SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE JUST HOW FAR EAST AS
CURRENT POPS TAPER OFF RAPIDLY FARTHER EAST INTO THE PLAINS.
OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE WARMS UP TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY TODAY AND EVEN
MORESO WEDNESDAY.

THE SURGE OF MOISTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY REMAINS CONSISTENT
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE BACKED
OFF FOR THE EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST. THE BIGGER EVENT NOW MAY BE THE
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY PERIOD AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS AND
WESTWARD TO THE CONTDVD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WARM UP TO NEAR
NORMAL WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST DIVE TO 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS TO WANT TO WARM UP A BIT TOO MUCH
THURSDAY AND STAYED BELOW IT FOR THE FORECAST HIGHS THAT DAY.

THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEPICTED NEXT WEEK IS STILL THERE...BUT WHAT
IMPACT IT MIGHT HAVE ON NM WEATHER IS IN DOUBT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
YESTERDAYS UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND A WEAK WIND
SHIFT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHEAST NM BEHIND IT THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE RULE TODAY. WITHOUT ANY
APPRECIABLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT PLUS ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS NE NM BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT OVERALL...SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS
TODAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND UPWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. CORRESPONDINGLY...
HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN NM...BUT
WILL STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL HELP
TEMPS TO WARM UP FURTHER. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH MOST AREAS WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. COULD
BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
MTNS...BUT GENERALLY NOT MUCH CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WINDS
LOOK TO BE TOO LIGHT TO SUPPORT CRITICAL CONDITIONS...THOUGH HAINES
VALUES OF 6 WILL BE PRESENT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN BACK INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE
NM/AZ BORDER...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS.  AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WESTWARD...WITH
HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT AGAIN. LIGHT WINDS WILL PRECLUDE
CRITICAL CONDITIONS...BUT HAINES VALUES OF 6 WILL PERSIST.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS ONCE AGAIN. THE
FRONT MAY SQUEAK THRU THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. ON SATURDAY...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HELP PUSH
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WESTWARD TO AT LEAST THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS MAY MEAN A MORE ACTIVE SUNDAY IS IN STORE
FOR WESTERN NM.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE ACROSS FAR NE NM FRIDAY...SATURDAY ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE NE
QUARTER OF THE STATE WHERE POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 261122 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
522 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LESS COVERAGE
OF -TSRA/-SHRA TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. FAVORED AREAS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS...BUT VIRGA AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE MOST COMMON. HRRR SUGGESTS KFMN MAY BE IMPACTED
LATE THIS AFTN AS WELL...SO HAVE ADDED A VCSH TO THE TAF.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...320 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
TODAY...LIMITING SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO WARM A FEW DEGREES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
AREAL COVERAGE THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOME MORE PLENTIFUL.
THIS WETTER AND MORE ACTIVE PERIOD WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING THE CENTRAL AND EAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RANGE FROM NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT A MINIMUM TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
A SHORT WAVE VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL BRUSH NRN NM...AND
HIGHEST GUIDANCE POPS FOR TODAY ARE AIMED AT THE NRN BORDER OF THE
STATE AS WELL AS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST. STEERING FLOW
WOULD TAKE CELLS OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND TO THE EAST...A FEW MAY
SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE NE PLAINS/PECOS VALLEY BY THIS EVENING
AND SUCCEEDING SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE JUST HOW FAR EAST AS
CURRENT POPS TAPER OFF RAPIDLY FARTHER EAST INTO THE PLAINS.
OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE WARMS UP TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY TODAY AND EVEN
MORESO WEDNESDAY.

THE SURGE OF MOISTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY REMAINS CONSISTENT
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE BACKED
OFF FOR THE EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST. THE BIGGER EVENT NOW MAY BE THE
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY PERIOD AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS AND
WESTWARD TO THE CONTDVD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WARM UP TO NEAR
NORMAL WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST DIVE TO 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS TO WANT TO WARM UP A BIT TOO MUCH
THURSDAY AND STAYED BELOW IT FOR THE FORECAST HIGHS THAT DAY.

THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEPICTED NEXT WEEK IS STILL THERE...BUT WHAT
IMPACT IT MIGHT HAVE ON NM WEATHER IS IN DOUBT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
YESTERDAYS UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND A WEAK WIND
SHIFT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHEAST NM BEHIND IT THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE RULE TODAY. WITHOUT ANY
APPRECIABLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT PLUS ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS NE NM BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT OVERALL...SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS
TODAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND UPWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. CORRESPONDINGLY...
HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN NM...BUT
WILL STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL HELP
TEMPS TO WARM UP FURTHER. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH MOST AREAS WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. COULD
BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
MTNS...BUT GENERALLY NOT MUCH CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WINDS
LOOK TO BE TOO LIGHT TO SUPPORT CRITICAL CONDITIONS...THOUGH HAINES
VALUES OF 6 WILL BE PRESENT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN BACK INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE
NM/AZ BORDER...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS.  AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WESTWARD...WITH
HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT AGAIN. LIGHT WINDS WILL PRECLUDE
CRITICAL CONDITIONS...BUT HAINES VALUES OF 6 WILL PERSIST.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS ONCE AGAIN. THE
FRONT MAY SQUEAK THRU THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. ON SATURDAY...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HELP PUSH
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WESTWARD TO AT LEAST THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS MAY MEAN A MORE ACTIVE SUNDAY IS IN STORE
FOR WESTERN NM.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE ACROSS FAR NE NM FRIDAY...SATURDAY ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE NE
QUARTER OF THE STATE WHERE POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 261122
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
522 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. LESS COVERAGE
OF -TSRA/-SHRA TODAY AS COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. FAVORED AREAS WILL
BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MTNS...BUT VIRGA AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL BE MOST COMMON. HRRR SUGGESTS KFMN MAY BE IMPACTED
LATE THIS AFTN AS WELL...SO HAVE ADDED A VCSH TO THE TAF.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...320 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
TODAY...LIMITING SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO WARM A FEW DEGREES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
AREAL COVERAGE THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOME MORE PLENTIFUL.
THIS WETTER AND MORE ACTIVE PERIOD WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING THE CENTRAL AND EAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RANGE FROM NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT A MINIMUM TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
A SHORT WAVE VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL BRUSH NRN NM...AND
HIGHEST GUIDANCE POPS FOR TODAY ARE AIMED AT THE NRN BORDER OF THE
STATE AS WELL AS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST. STEERING FLOW
WOULD TAKE CELLS OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND TO THE EAST...A FEW MAY
SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE NE PLAINS/PECOS VALLEY BY THIS EVENING
AND SUCCEEDING SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE JUST HOW FAR EAST AS
CURRENT POPS TAPER OFF RAPIDLY FARTHER EAST INTO THE PLAINS.
OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE WARMS UP TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY TODAY AND EVEN
MORESO WEDNESDAY.

THE SURGE OF MOISTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY REMAINS CONSISTENT
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE BACKED
OFF FOR THE EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST. THE BIGGER EVENT NOW MAY BE THE
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY PERIOD AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS AND
WESTWARD TO THE CONTDVD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WARM UP TO NEAR
NORMAL WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST DIVE TO 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS TO WANT TO WARM UP A BIT TOO MUCH
THURSDAY AND STAYED BELOW IT FOR THE FORECAST HIGHS THAT DAY.

THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEPICTED NEXT WEEK IS STILL THERE...BUT WHAT
IMPACT IT MIGHT HAVE ON NM WEATHER IS IN DOUBT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
YESTERDAYS UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND A WEAK WIND
SHIFT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHEAST NM BEHIND IT THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE RULE TODAY. WITHOUT ANY
APPRECIABLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT PLUS ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS NE NM BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT OVERALL...SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS
TODAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND UPWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. CORRESPONDINGLY...
HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN NM...BUT
WILL STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL HELP
TEMPS TO WARM UP FURTHER. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH MOST AREAS WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. COULD
BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
MTNS...BUT GENERALLY NOT MUCH CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WINDS
LOOK TO BE TOO LIGHT TO SUPPORT CRITICAL CONDITIONS...THOUGH HAINES
VALUES OF 6 WILL BE PRESENT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN BACK INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE
NM/AZ BORDER...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS.  AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WESTWARD...WITH
HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT AGAIN. LIGHT WINDS WILL PRECLUDE
CRITICAL CONDITIONS...BUT HAINES VALUES OF 6 WILL PERSIST.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS ONCE AGAIN. THE
FRONT MAY SQUEAK THRU THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. ON SATURDAY...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HELP PUSH
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WESTWARD TO AT LEAST THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS MAY MEAN A MORE ACTIVE SUNDAY IS IN STORE
FOR WESTERN NM.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE ACROSS FAR NE NM FRIDAY...SATURDAY ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE NE
QUARTER OF THE STATE WHERE POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 260923
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
320 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
TODAY...LIMITING SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO WARM A FEW DEGREES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
AREAL COVERAGE THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOME MORE PLENTIFUL.
THIS WETTER AND MORE ACTIVE PERIOD WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING THE CENTRAL AND EAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RANGE FROM NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT A MINIMUM TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
A SHORT WAVE VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL BRUSH NRN NM...AND
HIGHEST GUIDANCE POPS FOR TODAY ARE AIMED AT THE NRN BORDER OF THE
STATE AS WELL AS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST. STEERING FLOW
WOULD TAKE CELLS OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND TO THE EAST...A FEW MAY
SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE NE PLAINS/PECOS VALLEY BY THIS EVENING
AND SUCCEEDING SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE JUST HOW FAR EAST AS
CURRENT POPS TAPER OFF RAPIDLY FARTHER EAST INTO THE PLAINS.
OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE WARMS UP TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY TODAY AND EVEN
MORESO WEDNESDAY.

THE SURGE OF MOISTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY REMAINS CONSISTENT
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE BACKED
OFF FOR THE EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST. THE BIGGER EVENT NOW MAY BE THE
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY PERIOD AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS AND
WESTWARD TO THE CONTDVD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WARM UP TO NEAR
NORMAL WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST DIVE TO 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS TO WANT TO WARM UP A BIT TOO MUCH
THURSDAY AND STAYED BELOW IT FOR THE FORECAST HIGHS THAT DAY.

THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEPICTED NEXT WEEK IS STILL THERE...BUT WHAT
IMPACT IT MIGHT HAVE ON NM WEATHER IS IN DOUBT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
YESTERDAYS UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND A WEAK WIND
SHIFT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHEAST NM BEHIND IT THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE RULE TODAY. WITHOUT ANY
APPRECIABLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT PLUS ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS NE NM BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT OVERALL...SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS
TODAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND UPWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. CORRESPONDINGLY...
HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN NM...BUT
WILL STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL HELP
TEMPS TO WARM UP FURTHER. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH MOST AREAS WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. COULD
BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
MTNS...BUT GENERALLY NOT MUCH CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WINDS
LOOK TO BE TOO LIGHT TO SUPPORT CRITICAL CONDITIONS...THOUGH HAINES
VALUES OF 6 WILL BE PRESENT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN BACK INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE
NM/AZ BORDER...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS.  AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WESTWARD...WITH
HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT AGAIN. LIGHT WINDS WILL PRECLUDE
CRITICAL CONDITIONS...BUT HAINES VALUES OF 6 WILL PERSIST.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS ONCE AGAIN. THE
FRONT MAY SQUEAK THRU THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. ON SATURDAY...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HELP PUSH
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WESTWARD TO AT LEAST THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS MAY MEAN A MORE ACTIVE SUNDAY IS IN STORE
FOR WESTERN NM.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE ACROSS FAR NE NM FRIDAY...SATURDAY ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE NE
QUARTER OF THE STATE WHERE POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT
WINDS. TUESDAY WILL BE DRIER WITH MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF -SHRA/
TSRA OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER LATE DAY GUSTY VIRGA IS STILL
EXPECTED AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN AFT 21Z...FAVORING THE DIVIDE
EAST TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  75  46  80  47 /   5   5   5   5
DULCE...........................  72  39  74  39 /  10  10  10  20
CUBA............................  72  41  76  44 /  10  10  10  10
GALLUP..........................  74  39  77  38 /  10  10  10   5
EL MORRO........................  71  37  76  37 /  10  10  10  10
GRANTS..........................  74  39  79  40 /  10  10  10  10
QUEMADO.........................  74  40  78  42 /  20  20  10   5
GLENWOOD........................  79  42  82  44 /   5   5   5   0
CHAMA...........................  67  33  70  35 /  20  20  20  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  72  47  74  49 /  10  20  20  10
PECOS...........................  72  39  76  44 /  10  10  20  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  68  38  74  36 /  20  20  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  63  29  66  31 /  20  20  30  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  64  30  69  29 /  20  20  40  30
TAOS............................  70  37  74  37 /  10  10  20  10
MORA............................  70  39  73  42 /  10  10  30  30
ESPANOLA........................  75  41  80  44 /  10  10  10  10
SANTA FE........................  72  44  77  45 /  10  10  10  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  74  46  79  47 /  10  10  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  74  52  79  53 /   5   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  77  55  82  56 /   5   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  78  49  83  51 /   0   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  78  50  83  51 /   0   5   5   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  79  52  85  53 /   5   5   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  77  53  81  53 /   0   5   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  80  52  85  54 /   0   5   5   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  71  49  77  50 /  10  10   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  73  51  78  51 /  10  10   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  75  43  81  46 /   5  10   5   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  72  46  78  48 /  10  10  10  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  74  48  81  51 /   5  10   5   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  76  52  82  52 /   5   5   5  10
RUIDOSO.........................  73  46  77  45 /  10  10  10  20
CAPULIN.........................  72  42  78  45 /  10  10  30  20
RATON...........................  75  44  79  46 /  10  10  30  20
SPRINGER........................  74  43  78  45 /  10  10  30  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  72  43  77  45 /  10  10  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  75  51  83  56 /   5  10  20  20
ROY.............................  74  49  81  54 /   5   5  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  80  50  86  54 /   5   5  10  20
SANTA ROSA......................  81  51  87  56 /   5   5  10  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  83  54  88  59 /   5   5  10  20
CLOVIS..........................  81  54  86  58 /   5   5  10  30
PORTALES........................  83  55  88  60 /   5   5  10  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  84  54  87  60 /   5   5  10  20
ROSWELL.........................  87  56  91  61 /   5   5  10  30
PICACHO.........................  84  52  87  54 /   5   5  10  20
ELK.............................  79  50  82  52 /   5  10  10  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 260923
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
320 AM MDT TUE MAY 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
TODAY...LIMITING SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES
TO WARM A FEW DEGREES. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INCREASE IN NUMBER AND
AREAL COVERAGE THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE BECOME MORE PLENTIFUL.
THIS WETTER AND MORE ACTIVE PERIOD WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING THE CENTRAL AND EAST. HIGHS WILL CONTINUE
TO RANGE FROM NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE SEASON.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE AT A MINIMUM TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE INCREASING THURSDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
A SHORT WAVE VISIBLE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WILL BRUSH NRN NM...AND
HIGHEST GUIDANCE POPS FOR TODAY ARE AIMED AT THE NRN BORDER OF THE
STATE AS WELL AS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE WEST. STEERING FLOW
WOULD TAKE CELLS OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND TO THE EAST...A FEW MAY
SURVIVE LONG ENOUGH TO REACH THE NE PLAINS/PECOS VALLEY BY THIS EVENING
AND SUCCEEDING SHIFTS MAY NEED TO REEVALUATE JUST HOW FAR EAST AS
CURRENT POPS TAPER OFF RAPIDLY FARTHER EAST INTO THE PLAINS.
OTHERWISE...GUIDANCE WARMS UP TEMPERATURES CONSIDERABLY TODAY AND EVEN
MORESO WEDNESDAY.

THE SURGE OF MOISTURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY REMAINS CONSISTENT
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE POPS HAVE BACKED
OFF FOR THE EAST CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST. THE BIGGER EVENT NOW MAY BE THE
FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY PERIOD AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE PLAINS AND
WESTWARD TO THE CONTDVD. HIGH TEMPERATURES WHICH WARM UP TO NEAR
NORMAL WEDNESDAY IN THE EAST DIVE TO 10-15 DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE BY
SATURDAY. GUIDANCE STILL SEEMS TO WANT TO WARM UP A BIT TOO MUCH
THURSDAY AND STAYED BELOW IT FOR THE FORECAST HIGHS THAT DAY.

THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DEPICTED NEXT WEEK IS STILL THERE...BUT WHAT
IMPACT IT MIGHT HAVE ON NM WEATHER IS IN DOUBT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
YESTERDAYS UPPER LEVEL WAVE HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD AND A WEAK WIND
SHIFT WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHEAST NM BEHIND IT THIS MORNING.
OTHERWISE...ZONAL FLOW WILL BE THE RULE TODAY. WITHOUT ANY
APPRECIABLE UPPER LEVEL FORCING...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
FOCUSED OVER THE NORTHERN MTNS THANKS TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT PLUS ENOUGH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE. A FEW STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS NE NM BEHIND
THE FRONT...BUT OVERALL...SHOWER AND TSTM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS
TODAY. WITH LESS CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPERATURES WILL
TREND UPWARD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. CORRESPONDINGLY...
HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...ESPECIALLY FOR WESTERN NM...BUT
WILL STAY ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL HELP
TEMPS TO WARM UP FURTHER. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
WEEK WITH MOST AREAS WITHIN 3 DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. COULD
BE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN
MTNS...BUT GENERALLY NOT MUCH CONVECTION EXPECTED FOR THE DAYTIME
PERIOD. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL
AND WESTERN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON...WITH PERHAPS A FEW HOURS OF
SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WINDS
LOOK TO BE TOO LIGHT TO SUPPORT CRITICAL CONDITIONS...THOUGH HAINES
VALUES OF 6 WILL BE PRESENT.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT...GULF MOISTURE WILL BE DRAWN BACK INTO THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND WITH THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS APPROACHING THE
NM/AZ BORDER...EXPECT STORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS.  AS THE TROUGH AXIS CROSSES NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION
IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...DRIER
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WESTWARD...WITH
HUMIDITIES FALLING BELOW 15 PERCENT AGAIN. LIGHT WINDS WILL PRECLUDE
CRITICAL CONDITIONS...BUT HAINES VALUES OF 6 WILL PERSIST.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT...INCREASING PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE PLAINS ONCE AGAIN. THE
FRONT MAY SQUEAK THRU THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT
MORNING. ON SATURDAY...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES SHOULD HELP PUSH
WHAT IS LEFT OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WESTWARD TO AT LEAST THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THIS MAY MEAN A MORE ACTIVE SUNDAY IS IN STORE
FOR WESTERN NM.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
EXCEPTIONS WOULD BE ACROSS FAR NE NM FRIDAY...SATURDAY ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...AND SUNDAY ACROSS THE NE
QUARTER OF THE STATE WHERE POOR TO FAIR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT
WINDS. TUESDAY WILL BE DRIER WITH MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF -SHRA/
TSRA OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER LATE DAY GUSTY VIRGA IS STILL
EXPECTED AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN AFT 21Z...FAVORING THE DIVIDE
EAST TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  75  46  80  47 /   5   5   5   5
DULCE...........................  72  39  74  39 /  10  10  10  20
CUBA............................  72  41  76  44 /  10  10  10  10
GALLUP..........................  74  39  77  38 /  10  10  10   5
EL MORRO........................  71  37  76  37 /  10  10  10  10
GRANTS..........................  74  39  79  40 /  10  10  10  10
QUEMADO.........................  74  40  78  42 /  20  20  10   5
GLENWOOD........................  79  42  82  44 /   5   5   5   0
CHAMA...........................  67  33  70  35 /  20  20  20  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  72  47  74  49 /  10  20  20  10
PECOS...........................  72  39  76  44 /  10  10  20  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  68  38  74  36 /  20  20  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  63  29  66  31 /  20  20  30  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  64  30  69  29 /  20  20  40  30
TAOS............................  70  37  74  37 /  10  10  20  10
MORA............................  70  39  73  42 /  10  10  30  30
ESPANOLA........................  75  41  80  44 /  10  10  10  10
SANTA FE........................  72  44  77  45 /  10  10  10  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  74  46  79  47 /  10  10  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  74  52  79  53 /   5   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  77  55  82  56 /   5   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  78  49  83  51 /   0   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  78  50  83  51 /   0   5   5   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  79  52  85  53 /   5   5   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  77  53  81  53 /   0   5   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  80  52  85  54 /   0   5   5   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  71  49  77  50 /  10  10   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  73  51  78  51 /  10  10   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  75  43  81  46 /   5  10   5   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  72  46  78  48 /  10  10  10  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  74  48  81  51 /   5  10   5   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  76  52  82  52 /   5   5   5  10
RUIDOSO.........................  73  46  77  45 /  10  10  10  20
CAPULIN.........................  72  42  78  45 /  10  10  30  20
RATON...........................  75  44  79  46 /  10  10  30  20
SPRINGER........................  74  43  78  45 /  10  10  30  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  72  43  77  45 /  10  10  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  75  51  83  56 /   5  10  20  20
ROY.............................  74  49  81  54 /   5   5  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  80  50  86  54 /   5   5  10  20
SANTA ROSA......................  81  51  87  56 /   5   5  10  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  83  54  88  59 /   5   5  10  20
CLOVIS..........................  81  54  86  58 /   5   5  10  30
PORTALES........................  83  55  88  60 /   5   5  10  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  84  54  87  60 /   5   5  10  20
ROSWELL.........................  87  56  91  61 /   5   5  10  30
PICACHO.........................  84  52  87  54 /   5   5  10  20
ELK.............................  79  50  82  52 /   5  10  10  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 260543 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT
WINDS. TUESDAY WILL BE DRIER WITH MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF -SHRA/
TSRA OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER LATE DAY GUSTY VIRGA IS STILL
EXPECTED AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN AFT 21Z...FAVORING THE DIVIDE
EAST TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...715 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015...
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED EVENING POP GRID BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS.
ALSO SCALED BACK POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TWEEKED SKY GRIDS...TOO.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE STATE. THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION
INTO THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS WANING STEADILY AFTER
DARK. BY TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORM COVERAGE
WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES. ANOTHER WET
PERIOD WILL THEN BE ESTABLISHED FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
RETURNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TREKKING
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND ADVECTING SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INTO NM. DAYTIME HEATING HAS AGAIN DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PERSISTING...AND BREEZES HAVE
BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE. AS THE WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN PARTS
OF NM LATE THIS EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY WANE AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE.

FOR TUESDAY SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER NM WITH RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS. ENOUGH REMNANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE DAYTIME
HEATING WILL INDUCE WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT LOCALIZED UPSLOPE FLOW
TO AID DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESPOND UPWARD DUE TO
THE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES. TUESDAY WILL
ACTUALLY BE THE FIRST DAY IN A WHILE WHERE TEMPERATURE READINGS
ARE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A LONGER WAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND OFF OF THE
PACIFIC. A MEAGER COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...BUT
THINGS WILL TREND WETTER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DRAWS IN MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
OUTBREAK OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE EAST INTO THURSDAY.
FROM THERE THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RELAXES OVER THE AMERICAN
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN TO SURFACE FEATURES...INCLUDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTRUSIONS. A SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WOULD BE THE FIRST
REINFORCEMENT FOR LATE FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE WOULD BE RECYCLED FOR
DECENT CROPS OF STORMS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A WEAK...AND FAIRLY ILL-DEFINED...UPPER HIGH WILL THEN TRY TO
ESTABLISH CLOSE TO NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTENTION WILL BE DRAWN
FARTHER SOUTH IN THE BAJA REGION WHERE A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BE
GATHERING STRENGTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NM THIS MORNING WILL EXIT
EASTWARD...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL SWING INTO NORTHWEST NM
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING RAINS
MAY BE MORE SPOTTY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED.

ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND OVERALL...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY. STILL EXPECTING
STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IF A WEAK WIND SHIFT NUDGES UP TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...BUT WILL STAY
ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NM FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SSELY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DRAW UP
GULF MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...AND MAY RESULT IN STORMS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AS EARLY AS WED EVE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO
WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM WED AND THURS. IN FACT...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY WED...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA.
NONETHELESS...HAINES VALUES OF 6 ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...IF NOT FRI NIGHT...THEN SAT NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MOST
AREAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. VENTILATION WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT...EXCEPT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE POOR TO FAIR VALUES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 260543 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
QUIET OVERNIGHT WITH A FEW PASSING MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND LIGHT
WINDS. TUESDAY WILL BE DRIER WITH MUCH LESS COVERAGE OF -SHRA/
TSRA OVER THE REGION...HOWEVER LATE DAY GUSTY VIRGA IS STILL
EXPECTED AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN AFT 21Z...FAVORING THE DIVIDE
EAST TO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...715 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015...
.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED EVENING POP GRID BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS.
ALSO SCALED BACK POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TWEEKED SKY GRIDS...TOO.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE STATE. THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION
INTO THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS WANING STEADILY AFTER
DARK. BY TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORM COVERAGE
WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES. ANOTHER WET
PERIOD WILL THEN BE ESTABLISHED FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
RETURNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TREKKING
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND ADVECTING SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INTO NM. DAYTIME HEATING HAS AGAIN DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PERSISTING...AND BREEZES HAVE
BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE. AS THE WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN PARTS
OF NM LATE THIS EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY WANE AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE.

FOR TUESDAY SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER NM WITH RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS. ENOUGH REMNANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE DAYTIME
HEATING WILL INDUCE WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT LOCALIZED UPSLOPE FLOW
TO AID DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESPOND UPWARD DUE TO
THE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES. TUESDAY WILL
ACTUALLY BE THE FIRST DAY IN A WHILE WHERE TEMPERATURE READINGS
ARE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A LONGER WAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND OFF OF THE
PACIFIC. A MEAGER COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...BUT
THINGS WILL TREND WETTER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DRAWS IN MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
OUTBREAK OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE EAST INTO THURSDAY.
FROM THERE THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RELAXES OVER THE AMERICAN
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN TO SURFACE FEATURES...INCLUDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTRUSIONS. A SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WOULD BE THE FIRST
REINFORCEMENT FOR LATE FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE WOULD BE RECYCLED FOR
DECENT CROPS OF STORMS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A WEAK...AND FAIRLY ILL-DEFINED...UPPER HIGH WILL THEN TRY TO
ESTABLISH CLOSE TO NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTENTION WILL BE DRAWN
FARTHER SOUTH IN THE BAJA REGION WHERE A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BE
GATHERING STRENGTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NM THIS MORNING WILL EXIT
EASTWARD...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL SWING INTO NORTHWEST NM
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING RAINS
MAY BE MORE SPOTTY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED.

ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND OVERALL...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY. STILL EXPECTING
STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IF A WEAK WIND SHIFT NUDGES UP TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...BUT WILL STAY
ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NM FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SSELY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DRAW UP
GULF MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...AND MAY RESULT IN STORMS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AS EARLY AS WED EVE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO
WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM WED AND THURS. IN FACT...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY WED...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA.
NONETHELESS...HAINES VALUES OF 6 ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...IF NOT FRI NIGHT...THEN SAT NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MOST
AREAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. VENTILATION WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT...EXCEPT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE POOR TO FAIR VALUES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 260115
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
715 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED EVENING POP GRID BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS.
ALSO SCALED BACK POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TWEEKED SKY GRIDS...TOO.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...554 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN ACTIVE EVENING THRU AROUND 03Z BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR ALL AREAS. SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL WILL FAVOR
AREAS FROM LOS ALAMOS TO SANTA FE AND FROM BELEN SOUTH TO SOCORRO
THRU SUNSET. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THRU 06Z BEFORE
CLOUDS THIN/CLEAR OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE A DRIER DAY WITH
ONLY A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONT DVD.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE STATE. THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION
INTO THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS WANING STEADILY AFTER
DARK. BY TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORM COVERAGE
WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES. ANOTHER WET
PERIOD WILL THEN BE ESTABLISHED FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
RETURNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TREKKING
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND ADVECTING SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INTO NM. DAYTIME HEATING HAS AGAIN DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PERSISTING...AND BREEZES HAVE
BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE. AS THE WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN PARTS
OF NM LATE THIS EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY WANE AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE.

FOR TUESDAY SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER NM WITH RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS. ENOUGH REMNANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE DAYTIME
HEATING WILL INDUCE WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT LOCALIZED UPSLOPE FLOW
TO AID DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESPOND UPWARD DUE TO
THE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES. TUESDAY WILL
ACTUALLY BE THE FIRST DAY IN A WHILE WHERE TEMPERATURE READINGS
ARE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A LONGER WAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND OFF OF THE
PACIFIC. A MEAGER COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...BUT
THINGS WILL TREND WETTER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DRAWS IN MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
OUTBREAK OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE EAST INTO THURSDAY.
FROM THERE THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RELAXES OVER THE AMERICAN
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN TO SURFACE FEATURES...INCLUDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTRUSIONS. A SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WOULD BE THE FIRST
REINFORCEMENT FOR LATE FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE WOULD BE RECYCLED FOR
DECENT CROPS OF STORMS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A WEAK...AND FAIRLY ILL-DEFINED...UPPER HIGH WILL THEN TRY TO
ESTABLISH CLOSE TO NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTENTION WILL BE DRAWN
FARTHER SOUTH IN THE BAJA REGION WHERE A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BE
GATHERING STRENGTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NM THIS MORNING WILL EXIT
EASTWARD...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL SWING INTO NORTHWEST NM
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING RAINS
MAY BE MORE SPOTTY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED.

ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND OVERALL...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY. STILL EXPECTING
STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IF A WEAK WIND SHIFT NUDGES UP TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...BUT WILL STAY
ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NM FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SSELY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DRAW UP
GULF MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...AND MAY RESULT IN STORMS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AS EARLY AS WED EVE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO
WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM WED AND THURS. IN FACT...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY WED...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA.
NONETHELESS...HAINES VALUES OF 6 ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...IF NOT FRI NIGHT...THEN SAT NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MOST
AREAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. VENTILATION WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT...EXCEPT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE POOR TO FAIR VALUES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44




000
FXUS65 KABQ 260115
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
715 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED EVENING POP GRID BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS.
ALSO SCALED BACK POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TWEEKED SKY GRIDS...TOO.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...554 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN ACTIVE EVENING THRU AROUND 03Z BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR ALL AREAS. SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL WILL FAVOR
AREAS FROM LOS ALAMOS TO SANTA FE AND FROM BELEN SOUTH TO SOCORRO
THRU SUNSET. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THRU 06Z BEFORE
CLOUDS THIN/CLEAR OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE A DRIER DAY WITH
ONLY A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONT DVD.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE STATE. THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION
INTO THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS WANING STEADILY AFTER
DARK. BY TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORM COVERAGE
WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES. ANOTHER WET
PERIOD WILL THEN BE ESTABLISHED FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
RETURNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TREKKING
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND ADVECTING SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INTO NM. DAYTIME HEATING HAS AGAIN DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PERSISTING...AND BREEZES HAVE
BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE. AS THE WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN PARTS
OF NM LATE THIS EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY WANE AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE.

FOR TUESDAY SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER NM WITH RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS. ENOUGH REMNANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE DAYTIME
HEATING WILL INDUCE WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT LOCALIZED UPSLOPE FLOW
TO AID DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESPOND UPWARD DUE TO
THE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES. TUESDAY WILL
ACTUALLY BE THE FIRST DAY IN A WHILE WHERE TEMPERATURE READINGS
ARE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A LONGER WAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND OFF OF THE
PACIFIC. A MEAGER COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...BUT
THINGS WILL TREND WETTER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DRAWS IN MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
OUTBREAK OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE EAST INTO THURSDAY.
FROM THERE THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RELAXES OVER THE AMERICAN
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN TO SURFACE FEATURES...INCLUDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTRUSIONS. A SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WOULD BE THE FIRST
REINFORCEMENT FOR LATE FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE WOULD BE RECYCLED FOR
DECENT CROPS OF STORMS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A WEAK...AND FAIRLY ILL-DEFINED...UPPER HIGH WILL THEN TRY TO
ESTABLISH CLOSE TO NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTENTION WILL BE DRAWN
FARTHER SOUTH IN THE BAJA REGION WHERE A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BE
GATHERING STRENGTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NM THIS MORNING WILL EXIT
EASTWARD...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL SWING INTO NORTHWEST NM
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING RAINS
MAY BE MORE SPOTTY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED.

ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND OVERALL...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY. STILL EXPECTING
STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IF A WEAK WIND SHIFT NUDGES UP TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...BUT WILL STAY
ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NM FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SSELY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DRAW UP
GULF MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...AND MAY RESULT IN STORMS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AS EARLY AS WED EVE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO
WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM WED AND THURS. IN FACT...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY WED...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA.
NONETHELESS...HAINES VALUES OF 6 ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...IF NOT FRI NIGHT...THEN SAT NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MOST
AREAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. VENTILATION WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT...EXCEPT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE POOR TO FAIR VALUES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44




000
FXUS65 KABQ 260115
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
715 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED EVENING POP GRID BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS.
ALSO SCALED BACK POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TWEEKED SKY GRIDS...TOO.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...554 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN ACTIVE EVENING THRU AROUND 03Z BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR ALL AREAS. SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL WILL FAVOR
AREAS FROM LOS ALAMOS TO SANTA FE AND FROM BELEN SOUTH TO SOCORRO
THRU SUNSET. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THRU 06Z BEFORE
CLOUDS THIN/CLEAR OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE A DRIER DAY WITH
ONLY A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONT DVD.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE STATE. THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION
INTO THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS WANING STEADILY AFTER
DARK. BY TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORM COVERAGE
WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES. ANOTHER WET
PERIOD WILL THEN BE ESTABLISHED FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
RETURNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TREKKING
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND ADVECTING SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INTO NM. DAYTIME HEATING HAS AGAIN DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PERSISTING...AND BREEZES HAVE
BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE. AS THE WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN PARTS
OF NM LATE THIS EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY WANE AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE.

FOR TUESDAY SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER NM WITH RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS. ENOUGH REMNANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE DAYTIME
HEATING WILL INDUCE WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT LOCALIZED UPSLOPE FLOW
TO AID DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESPOND UPWARD DUE TO
THE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES. TUESDAY WILL
ACTUALLY BE THE FIRST DAY IN A WHILE WHERE TEMPERATURE READINGS
ARE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A LONGER WAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND OFF OF THE
PACIFIC. A MEAGER COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...BUT
THINGS WILL TREND WETTER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DRAWS IN MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
OUTBREAK OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE EAST INTO THURSDAY.
FROM THERE THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RELAXES OVER THE AMERICAN
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN TO SURFACE FEATURES...INCLUDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTRUSIONS. A SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WOULD BE THE FIRST
REINFORCEMENT FOR LATE FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE WOULD BE RECYCLED FOR
DECENT CROPS OF STORMS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A WEAK...AND FAIRLY ILL-DEFINED...UPPER HIGH WILL THEN TRY TO
ESTABLISH CLOSE TO NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTENTION WILL BE DRAWN
FARTHER SOUTH IN THE BAJA REGION WHERE A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BE
GATHERING STRENGTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NM THIS MORNING WILL EXIT
EASTWARD...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL SWING INTO NORTHWEST NM
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING RAINS
MAY BE MORE SPOTTY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED.

ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND OVERALL...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY. STILL EXPECTING
STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IF A WEAK WIND SHIFT NUDGES UP TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...BUT WILL STAY
ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NM FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SSELY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DRAW UP
GULF MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...AND MAY RESULT IN STORMS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AS EARLY AS WED EVE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO
WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM WED AND THURS. IN FACT...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY WED...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA.
NONETHELESS...HAINES VALUES OF 6 ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...IF NOT FRI NIGHT...THEN SAT NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MOST
AREAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. VENTILATION WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT...EXCEPT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE POOR TO FAIR VALUES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44




000
FXUS65 KABQ 260115
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
715 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED EVENING POP GRID BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS.
ALSO SCALED BACK POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TWEEKED SKY GRIDS...TOO.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...554 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN ACTIVE EVENING THRU AROUND 03Z BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR ALL AREAS. SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL WILL FAVOR
AREAS FROM LOS ALAMOS TO SANTA FE AND FROM BELEN SOUTH TO SOCORRO
THRU SUNSET. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THRU 06Z BEFORE
CLOUDS THIN/CLEAR OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE A DRIER DAY WITH
ONLY A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONT DVD.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE STATE. THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION
INTO THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS WANING STEADILY AFTER
DARK. BY TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORM COVERAGE
WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES. ANOTHER WET
PERIOD WILL THEN BE ESTABLISHED FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
RETURNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TREKKING
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND ADVECTING SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INTO NM. DAYTIME HEATING HAS AGAIN DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PERSISTING...AND BREEZES HAVE
BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE. AS THE WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN PARTS
OF NM LATE THIS EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY WANE AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE.

FOR TUESDAY SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER NM WITH RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS. ENOUGH REMNANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE DAYTIME
HEATING WILL INDUCE WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT LOCALIZED UPSLOPE FLOW
TO AID DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESPOND UPWARD DUE TO
THE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES. TUESDAY WILL
ACTUALLY BE THE FIRST DAY IN A WHILE WHERE TEMPERATURE READINGS
ARE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A LONGER WAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND OFF OF THE
PACIFIC. A MEAGER COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...BUT
THINGS WILL TREND WETTER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DRAWS IN MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
OUTBREAK OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE EAST INTO THURSDAY.
FROM THERE THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RELAXES OVER THE AMERICAN
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN TO SURFACE FEATURES...INCLUDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTRUSIONS. A SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WOULD BE THE FIRST
REINFORCEMENT FOR LATE FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE WOULD BE RECYCLED FOR
DECENT CROPS OF STORMS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A WEAK...AND FAIRLY ILL-DEFINED...UPPER HIGH WILL THEN TRY TO
ESTABLISH CLOSE TO NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTENTION WILL BE DRAWN
FARTHER SOUTH IN THE BAJA REGION WHERE A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BE
GATHERING STRENGTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NM THIS MORNING WILL EXIT
EASTWARD...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL SWING INTO NORTHWEST NM
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING RAINS
MAY BE MORE SPOTTY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED.

ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND OVERALL...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY. STILL EXPECTING
STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IF A WEAK WIND SHIFT NUDGES UP TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...BUT WILL STAY
ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NM FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SSELY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DRAW UP
GULF MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...AND MAY RESULT IN STORMS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AS EARLY AS WED EVE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO
WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM WED AND THURS. IN FACT...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY WED...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA.
NONETHELESS...HAINES VALUES OF 6 ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...IF NOT FRI NIGHT...THEN SAT NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MOST
AREAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. VENTILATION WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT...EXCEPT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE POOR TO FAIR VALUES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44




000
FXUS65 KABQ 260115
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
715 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED EVENING POP GRID BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS.
ALSO SCALED BACK POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TWEEKED SKY GRIDS...TOO.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...554 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN ACTIVE EVENING THRU AROUND 03Z BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR ALL AREAS. SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL WILL FAVOR
AREAS FROM LOS ALAMOS TO SANTA FE AND FROM BELEN SOUTH TO SOCORRO
THRU SUNSET. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THRU 06Z BEFORE
CLOUDS THIN/CLEAR OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE A DRIER DAY WITH
ONLY A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONT DVD.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE STATE. THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION
INTO THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS WANING STEADILY AFTER
DARK. BY TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORM COVERAGE
WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES. ANOTHER WET
PERIOD WILL THEN BE ESTABLISHED FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
RETURNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TREKKING
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND ADVECTING SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INTO NM. DAYTIME HEATING HAS AGAIN DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PERSISTING...AND BREEZES HAVE
BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE. AS THE WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN PARTS
OF NM LATE THIS EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY WANE AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE.

FOR TUESDAY SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER NM WITH RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS. ENOUGH REMNANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE DAYTIME
HEATING WILL INDUCE WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT LOCALIZED UPSLOPE FLOW
TO AID DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESPOND UPWARD DUE TO
THE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES. TUESDAY WILL
ACTUALLY BE THE FIRST DAY IN A WHILE WHERE TEMPERATURE READINGS
ARE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A LONGER WAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND OFF OF THE
PACIFIC. A MEAGER COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...BUT
THINGS WILL TREND WETTER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DRAWS IN MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
OUTBREAK OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE EAST INTO THURSDAY.
FROM THERE THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RELAXES OVER THE AMERICAN
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN TO SURFACE FEATURES...INCLUDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTRUSIONS. A SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WOULD BE THE FIRST
REINFORCEMENT FOR LATE FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE WOULD BE RECYCLED FOR
DECENT CROPS OF STORMS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A WEAK...AND FAIRLY ILL-DEFINED...UPPER HIGH WILL THEN TRY TO
ESTABLISH CLOSE TO NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTENTION WILL BE DRAWN
FARTHER SOUTH IN THE BAJA REGION WHERE A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BE
GATHERING STRENGTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NM THIS MORNING WILL EXIT
EASTWARD...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL SWING INTO NORTHWEST NM
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING RAINS
MAY BE MORE SPOTTY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED.

ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND OVERALL...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY. STILL EXPECTING
STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IF A WEAK WIND SHIFT NUDGES UP TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...BUT WILL STAY
ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NM FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SSELY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DRAW UP
GULF MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...AND MAY RESULT IN STORMS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AS EARLY AS WED EVE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO
WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM WED AND THURS. IN FACT...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY WED...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA.
NONETHELESS...HAINES VALUES OF 6 ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...IF NOT FRI NIGHT...THEN SAT NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MOST
AREAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. VENTILATION WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT...EXCEPT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE POOR TO FAIR VALUES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44




000
FXUS65 KABQ 260115
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
715 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.UPDATE...
ADJUSTED EVENING POP GRID BASED ON RECENT RADAR AND MODEL TRENDS.
ALSO SCALED BACK POPS AFTER MIDNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT
INCREASE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST. TWEEKED SKY GRIDS...TOO.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...554 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN ACTIVE EVENING THRU AROUND 03Z BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR ALL AREAS. SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL WILL FAVOR
AREAS FROM LOS ALAMOS TO SANTA FE AND FROM BELEN SOUTH TO SOCORRO
THRU SUNSET. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THRU 06Z BEFORE
CLOUDS THIN/CLEAR OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE A DRIER DAY WITH
ONLY A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONT DVD.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE STATE. THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION
INTO THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS WANING STEADILY AFTER
DARK. BY TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORM COVERAGE
WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES. ANOTHER WET
PERIOD WILL THEN BE ESTABLISHED FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
RETURNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TREKKING
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND ADVECTING SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INTO NM. DAYTIME HEATING HAS AGAIN DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PERSISTING...AND BREEZES HAVE
BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE. AS THE WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN PARTS
OF NM LATE THIS EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY WANE AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE.

FOR TUESDAY SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER NM WITH RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS. ENOUGH REMNANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE DAYTIME
HEATING WILL INDUCE WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT LOCALIZED UPSLOPE FLOW
TO AID DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESPOND UPWARD DUE TO
THE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES. TUESDAY WILL
ACTUALLY BE THE FIRST DAY IN A WHILE WHERE TEMPERATURE READINGS
ARE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A LONGER WAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND OFF OF THE
PACIFIC. A MEAGER COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...BUT
THINGS WILL TREND WETTER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DRAWS IN MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
OUTBREAK OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE EAST INTO THURSDAY.
FROM THERE THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RELAXES OVER THE AMERICAN
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN TO SURFACE FEATURES...INCLUDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTRUSIONS. A SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WOULD BE THE FIRST
REINFORCEMENT FOR LATE FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE WOULD BE RECYCLED FOR
DECENT CROPS OF STORMS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A WEAK...AND FAIRLY ILL-DEFINED...UPPER HIGH WILL THEN TRY TO
ESTABLISH CLOSE TO NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTENTION WILL BE DRAWN
FARTHER SOUTH IN THE BAJA REGION WHERE A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BE
GATHERING STRENGTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NM THIS MORNING WILL EXIT
EASTWARD...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL SWING INTO NORTHWEST NM
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING RAINS
MAY BE MORE SPOTTY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED.

ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND OVERALL...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY. STILL EXPECTING
STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IF A WEAK WIND SHIFT NUDGES UP TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...BUT WILL STAY
ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NM FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SSELY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DRAW UP
GULF MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...AND MAY RESULT IN STORMS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AS EARLY AS WED EVE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO
WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM WED AND THURS. IN FACT...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY WED...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA.
NONETHELESS...HAINES VALUES OF 6 ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...IF NOT FRI NIGHT...THEN SAT NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MOST
AREAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. VENTILATION WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT...EXCEPT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE POOR TO FAIR VALUES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44



000
FXUS65 KABQ 252354 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
554 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN ACTIVE EVENING THRU AROUND 03Z BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR ALL AREAS. SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL WILL FAVOR
AREAS FROM LOS ALAMOS TO SANTA FE AND FROM BELEN SOUTH TO SOCORRO
THRU SUNSET. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THRU 06Z BEFORE
CLOUDS THIN/CLEAR OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE A DRIER DAY WITH
ONLY A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONT DVD.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE STATE. THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION
INTO THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS WANING STEADILY AFTER
DARK. BY TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORM COVERAGE
WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES. ANOTHER WET
PERIOD WILL THEN BE ESTABLISHED FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
RETURNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TREKKING
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND ADVECTING SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INTO NM. DAYTIME HEATING HAS AGAIN DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PERSISTING...AND BREEZES HAVE
BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE. AS THE WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN PARTS
OF NM LATE THIS EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY WANE AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE.

FOR TUESDAY SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER NM WITH RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS. ENOUGH REMNANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE DAYTIME
HEATING WILL INDUCE WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT LOCALIZED UPSLOPE FLOW
TO AID DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESPOND UPWARD DUE TO
THE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES. TUESDAY WILL
ACTUALLY BE THE FIRST DAY IN A WHILE WHERE TEMPERATURE READINGS
ARE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A LONGER WAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND OFF OF THE
PACIFIC. A MEAGER COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...BUT
THINGS WILL TREND WETTER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DRAWS IN MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
OUTBREAK OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE EAST INTO THURSDAY.
FROM THERE THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RELAXES OVER THE AMERICAN
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN TO SURFACE FEATURES...INCLUDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTRUSIONS. A SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WOULD BE THE FIRST
REINFORCEMENT FOR LATE FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE WOULD BE RECYCLED FOR
DECENT CROPS OF STORMS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A WEAK...AND FAIRLY ILL-DEFINED...UPPER HIGH WILL THEN TRY TO
ESTABLISH CLOSE TO NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTENTION WILL BE DRAWN
FARTHER SOUTH IN THE BAJA REGION WHERE A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BE
GATHERING STRENGTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NM THIS MORNING WILL EXIT
EASTWARD...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL SWING INTO NORTHWEST NM
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING RAINS
MAY BE MORE SPOTTY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED.

ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND OVERALL...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY. STILL EXPECTING
STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IF A WEAK WIND SHIFT NUDGES UP TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...BUT WILL STAY
ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NM FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SSELY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DRAW UP
GULF MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...AND MAY RESULT IN STORMS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AS EARLY AS WED EVE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO
WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM WED AND THURS. IN FACT...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY WED...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA.
NONETHELESS...HAINES VALUES OF 6 ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...IF NOT FRI NIGHT...THEN SAT NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MOST
AREAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. VENTILATION WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT...EXCEPT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE POOR TO FAIR VALUES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 252354 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
554 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN ACTIVE EVENING THRU AROUND 03Z BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR ALL AREAS. SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL WILL FAVOR
AREAS FROM LOS ALAMOS TO SANTA FE AND FROM BELEN SOUTH TO SOCORRO
THRU SUNSET. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THRU 06Z BEFORE
CLOUDS THIN/CLEAR OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE A DRIER DAY WITH
ONLY A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONT DVD.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE STATE. THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION
INTO THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS WANING STEADILY AFTER
DARK. BY TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORM COVERAGE
WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES. ANOTHER WET
PERIOD WILL THEN BE ESTABLISHED FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
RETURNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TREKKING
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND ADVECTING SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INTO NM. DAYTIME HEATING HAS AGAIN DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PERSISTING...AND BREEZES HAVE
BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE. AS THE WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN PARTS
OF NM LATE THIS EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY WANE AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE.

FOR TUESDAY SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER NM WITH RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS. ENOUGH REMNANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE DAYTIME
HEATING WILL INDUCE WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT LOCALIZED UPSLOPE FLOW
TO AID DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESPOND UPWARD DUE TO
THE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES. TUESDAY WILL
ACTUALLY BE THE FIRST DAY IN A WHILE WHERE TEMPERATURE READINGS
ARE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A LONGER WAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND OFF OF THE
PACIFIC. A MEAGER COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...BUT
THINGS WILL TREND WETTER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DRAWS IN MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
OUTBREAK OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE EAST INTO THURSDAY.
FROM THERE THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RELAXES OVER THE AMERICAN
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN TO SURFACE FEATURES...INCLUDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTRUSIONS. A SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WOULD BE THE FIRST
REINFORCEMENT FOR LATE FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE WOULD BE RECYCLED FOR
DECENT CROPS OF STORMS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A WEAK...AND FAIRLY ILL-DEFINED...UPPER HIGH WILL THEN TRY TO
ESTABLISH CLOSE TO NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTENTION WILL BE DRAWN
FARTHER SOUTH IN THE BAJA REGION WHERE A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BE
GATHERING STRENGTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NM THIS MORNING WILL EXIT
EASTWARD...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL SWING INTO NORTHWEST NM
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING RAINS
MAY BE MORE SPOTTY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED.

ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND OVERALL...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY. STILL EXPECTING
STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IF A WEAK WIND SHIFT NUDGES UP TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...BUT WILL STAY
ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NM FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SSELY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DRAW UP
GULF MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...AND MAY RESULT IN STORMS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AS EARLY AS WED EVE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO
WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM WED AND THURS. IN FACT...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY WED...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA.
NONETHELESS...HAINES VALUES OF 6 ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...IF NOT FRI NIGHT...THEN SAT NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MOST
AREAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. VENTILATION WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT...EXCEPT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE POOR TO FAIR VALUES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 252354 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
554 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN ACTIVE EVENING THRU AROUND 03Z BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR ALL AREAS. SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL WILL FAVOR
AREAS FROM LOS ALAMOS TO SANTA FE AND FROM BELEN SOUTH TO SOCORRO
THRU SUNSET. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THRU 06Z BEFORE
CLOUDS THIN/CLEAR OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE A DRIER DAY WITH
ONLY A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONT DVD.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE STATE. THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION
INTO THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS WANING STEADILY AFTER
DARK. BY TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORM COVERAGE
WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES. ANOTHER WET
PERIOD WILL THEN BE ESTABLISHED FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
RETURNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TREKKING
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND ADVECTING SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INTO NM. DAYTIME HEATING HAS AGAIN DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PERSISTING...AND BREEZES HAVE
BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE. AS THE WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN PARTS
OF NM LATE THIS EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY WANE AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE.

FOR TUESDAY SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER NM WITH RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS. ENOUGH REMNANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE DAYTIME
HEATING WILL INDUCE WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT LOCALIZED UPSLOPE FLOW
TO AID DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESPOND UPWARD DUE TO
THE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES. TUESDAY WILL
ACTUALLY BE THE FIRST DAY IN A WHILE WHERE TEMPERATURE READINGS
ARE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A LONGER WAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND OFF OF THE
PACIFIC. A MEAGER COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...BUT
THINGS WILL TREND WETTER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DRAWS IN MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
OUTBREAK OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE EAST INTO THURSDAY.
FROM THERE THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RELAXES OVER THE AMERICAN
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN TO SURFACE FEATURES...INCLUDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTRUSIONS. A SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WOULD BE THE FIRST
REINFORCEMENT FOR LATE FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE WOULD BE RECYCLED FOR
DECENT CROPS OF STORMS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A WEAK...AND FAIRLY ILL-DEFINED...UPPER HIGH WILL THEN TRY TO
ESTABLISH CLOSE TO NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTENTION WILL BE DRAWN
FARTHER SOUTH IN THE BAJA REGION WHERE A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BE
GATHERING STRENGTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NM THIS MORNING WILL EXIT
EASTWARD...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL SWING INTO NORTHWEST NM
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING RAINS
MAY BE MORE SPOTTY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED.

ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND OVERALL...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY. STILL EXPECTING
STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IF A WEAK WIND SHIFT NUDGES UP TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...BUT WILL STAY
ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NM FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SSELY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DRAW UP
GULF MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...AND MAY RESULT IN STORMS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AS EARLY AS WED EVE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO
WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM WED AND THURS. IN FACT...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY WED...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA.
NONETHELESS...HAINES VALUES OF 6 ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...IF NOT FRI NIGHT...THEN SAT NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MOST
AREAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. VENTILATION WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT...EXCEPT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE POOR TO FAIR VALUES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 252354 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
554 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN ACTIVE EVENING THRU AROUND 03Z BEFORE CONDITIONS IMPROVE TO
VFR ALL AREAS. SHRA/TSRA WITH LCL HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL WILL FAVOR
AREAS FROM LOS ALAMOS TO SANTA FE AND FROM BELEN SOUTH TO SOCORRO
THRU SUNSET. MID LEVEL CLOUDS WILL HANG AROUND THRU 06Z BEFORE
CLOUDS THIN/CLEAR OVERNIGHT. TUESDAY WILL BE A DRIER DAY WITH
ONLY A FEW AFTERNOON GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS EXPECTED OVER THE HIGH
TERRAIN...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONT DVD.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE STATE. THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION
INTO THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS WANING STEADILY AFTER
DARK. BY TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORM COVERAGE
WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES. ANOTHER WET
PERIOD WILL THEN BE ESTABLISHED FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
RETURNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TREKKING
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND ADVECTING SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INTO NM. DAYTIME HEATING HAS AGAIN DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE. COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PERSISTING...AND BREEZES HAVE
BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE. AS THE WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN PARTS
OF NM LATE THIS EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE DECOUPLES...SHOWERS AND
STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY WANE AND DECREASE IN COVERAGE.

FOR TUESDAY SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER NM WITH RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS. ENOUGH REMNANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE DAYTIME
HEATING WILL INDUCE WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT LOCALIZED UPSLOPE FLOW
TO AID DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESPOND UPWARD DUE TO
THE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES. TUESDAY WILL
ACTUALLY BE THE FIRST DAY IN A WHILE WHERE TEMPERATURE READINGS
ARE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A LONGER WAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND OFF OF THE
PACIFIC. A MEAGER COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...BUT
THINGS WILL TREND WETTER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DRAWS IN MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
OUTBREAK OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE EAST INTO THURSDAY.
FROM THERE THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RELAXES OVER THE AMERICAN
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN TO SURFACE FEATURES...INCLUDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTRUSIONS. A SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WOULD BE THE FIRST
REINFORCEMENT FOR LATE FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE WOULD BE RECYCLED FOR
DECENT CROPS OF STORMS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A WEAK...AND FAIRLY ILL-DEFINED...UPPER HIGH WILL THEN TRY TO
ESTABLISH CLOSE TO NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTENTION WILL BE DRAWN
FARTHER SOUTH IN THE BAJA REGION WHERE A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BE
GATHERING STRENGTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NM THIS MORNING WILL EXIT
EASTWARD...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL SWING INTO NORTHWEST NM
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING RAINS
MAY BE MORE SPOTTY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED.

ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND OVERALL...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY. STILL EXPECTING
STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IF A WEAK WIND SHIFT NUDGES UP TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...BUT WILL STAY
ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NM FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SSELY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DRAW UP
GULF MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...AND MAY RESULT IN STORMS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AS EARLY AS WED EVE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO
WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM WED AND THURS. IN FACT...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY WED...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA.
NONETHELESS...HAINES VALUES OF 6 ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...IF NOT FRI NIGHT...THEN SAT NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MOST
AREAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. VENTILATION WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT...EXCEPT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE POOR TO FAIR VALUES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 252121
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
321 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE STATE. THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION
INTO THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS WANING STEADILY AFTER
DARK. BY TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORM COVERAGE
WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES. ANOTHER WET
PERIOD WILL THEN BE ESTABLISHED FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
RETURNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT WAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TREKKING
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND ADVECTING SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INTO NM. DAYTIME HEATING HAS AGAIN DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PERSISTING...AND BREEZES
HAVE BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE. AS THE WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN
PARTS OF NM LATE THIS EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY WANE AND DECREASE IN
COVERAGE.

FOR TUESDAY SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER NM WITH RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS. ENOUGH REMNANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE DAYTIME
HEATING WILL INDUCE WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT LOCALIZED UPSLOPE FLOW
TO AID DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESPOND UPWARD DUE TO
THE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES. TUESDAY WILL
ACTUALLY BE THE FIRST DAY IN A WHILE WHERE TEMPERATURE READINGS
ARE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A LONGER WAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND OFF OF THE
PACIFIC. A MEAGER COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...BUT
THINGS WILL TREND WETTER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DRAWS IN MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
OUTBREAK OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE EAST INTO THURSDAY.
FROM THERE THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RELAXES OVER THE AMERICAN
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN TO SURFACE FEATURES...INCLUDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTRUSIONS. A SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WOULD BE THE FIRST
REINFORCEMENT FOR LATE FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE WOULD BE RECYCLED FOR
DECENT CROPS OF STORMS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A WEAK...AND FAIRLY ILL-DEFINED...UPPER HIGH WILL THEN TRY TO
ESTABLISH CLOSE TO NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTENTION WILL BE DRAWN
FARTHER SOUTH IN THE BAJA REGION WHERE A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BE
GATHERING STRENGTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NM THIS MORNING WILL EXIT
EASTWARD...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL SWING INTO NORTHWEST NM
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING RAINS
MAY BE MORE SPOTTY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED.

ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND OVERALL...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY. STILL EXPECTING
STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IF A WEAK WIND SHIFT NUDGES UP TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...BUT WILL STAY
ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NM FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SSELY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DRAW UP
GULF MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...AND MAY RESULT IN STORMS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AS EARLY AS WED EVE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO
WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM WED AND THURS. IN FACT...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY WED...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA.
NONETHELESS...HAINES VALUES OF 6 ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...IF NOT FRI NIGHT...THEN SAT NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MOST
AREAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. VENTILATION WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT...EXCEPT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE POOR TO FAIR VALUES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST-SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL
NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN NM DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT NEARLY STATIONARY SFC
BOUNDARY/FRONT DRAPED FROM THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTHEAST TO NEAR
KCVN COULD HELP KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS GOING UNTIL AROUND
26/06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  44  77  47  80 /  30   5   5  10
DULCE...........................  35  72  37  74 /  50  10  10  10
CUBA............................  38  72  41  76 /  50  10  10  10
GALLUP..........................  38  74  39  77 /  40  10  10  10
EL MORRO........................  37  71  38  76 /  50  10  10  10
GRANTS..........................  38  74  39  79 /  40  10  10  10
QUEMADO.........................  40  74  42  78 /  30  20  20  10
GLENWOOD........................  42  79  45  82 /  20   5   5   5
CHAMA...........................  31  66  33  70 /  50  20  20  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  44  69  47  74 /  60  10  20  20
PECOS...........................  38  71  39  76 /  40  10  10  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  34  70  39  74 /  50  20  20  30
RED RIVER.......................  33  61  32  64 /  60  20  20  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  29  67  28  69 /  40  20  20  50
TAOS............................  34  70  38  74 /  30  10  10  20
MORA............................  38  70  39  73 /  40  10  10  40
ESPANOLA........................  39  77  41  80 /  40  10  10  10
SANTA FE........................  42  72  44  77 /  40  10  10  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  43  74  46  79 /  40  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  49  75  53  80 /  30   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  52  77  56  82 /  30   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  47  79  50  84 /  30   0   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  47  78  51  83 /  30   0   5  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  50  80  52  85 /  30   5   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  49  78  52  81 /  30   0   5  10
SOCORRO.........................  50  80  52  86 /  40   0   5   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  45  73  49  77 /  30  10  10  10
TIJERAS.........................  45  74  49  79 /  30  10  10  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  43  76  46  81 /  30   5  10  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  42  72  46  78 /  30  10  10  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  46  75  48  79 /  30   5  10   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  49  77  52  82 /  20   5   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  51  72  46  77 /  30  10  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  42  72  42  78 /  40  10  10  30
RATON...........................  43  74  44  79 /  30  10  10  20
SPRINGER........................  43  76  45  81 /  30  10  10  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  42  72  43  77 /  30  10  10  20
CLAYTON.........................  48  75  51  83 /  20   5  10  20
ROY.............................  47  76  49  81 /  20   5   5  20
CONCHAS.........................  51  82  51  88 /  20   5   5  10
SANTA ROSA......................  51  82  51  87 /  20   5   5  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  53  82  54  88 /  20   5   5  10
CLOVIS..........................  52  81  55  86 /  10   5   5  10
PORTALES........................  53  83  56  88 /  10   5   5  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  53  84  54  87 /  20   5   5  10
ROSWELL.........................  55  87  56  91 /  10   5   5  10
PICACHO.........................  52  84  52  87 /  20   5   5  10
ELK.............................  50  78  50  82 /  20   5  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52



000
FXUS65 KABQ 252121
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
321 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE STATE. THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION
INTO THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS WANING STEADILY AFTER
DARK. BY TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORM COVERAGE
WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES. ANOTHER WET
PERIOD WILL THEN BE ESTABLISHED FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
RETURNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT WAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TREKKING
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND ADVECTING SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INTO NM. DAYTIME HEATING HAS AGAIN DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PERSISTING...AND BREEZES
HAVE BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE. AS THE WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN
PARTS OF NM LATE THIS EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY WANE AND DECREASE IN
COVERAGE.

FOR TUESDAY SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER NM WITH RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS. ENOUGH REMNANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE DAYTIME
HEATING WILL INDUCE WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT LOCALIZED UPSLOPE FLOW
TO AID DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESPOND UPWARD DUE TO
THE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES. TUESDAY WILL
ACTUALLY BE THE FIRST DAY IN A WHILE WHERE TEMPERATURE READINGS
ARE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A LONGER WAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND OFF OF THE
PACIFIC. A MEAGER COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...BUT
THINGS WILL TREND WETTER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DRAWS IN MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
OUTBREAK OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE EAST INTO THURSDAY.
FROM THERE THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RELAXES OVER THE AMERICAN
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN TO SURFACE FEATURES...INCLUDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTRUSIONS. A SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WOULD BE THE FIRST
REINFORCEMENT FOR LATE FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE WOULD BE RECYCLED FOR
DECENT CROPS OF STORMS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A WEAK...AND FAIRLY ILL-DEFINED...UPPER HIGH WILL THEN TRY TO
ESTABLISH CLOSE TO NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTENTION WILL BE DRAWN
FARTHER SOUTH IN THE BAJA REGION WHERE A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BE
GATHERING STRENGTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NM THIS MORNING WILL EXIT
EASTWARD...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL SWING INTO NORTHWEST NM
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING RAINS
MAY BE MORE SPOTTY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED.

ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND OVERALL...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY. STILL EXPECTING
STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IF A WEAK WIND SHIFT NUDGES UP TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...BUT WILL STAY
ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NM FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SSELY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DRAW UP
GULF MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...AND MAY RESULT IN STORMS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AS EARLY AS WED EVE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO
WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM WED AND THURS. IN FACT...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY WED...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA.
NONETHELESS...HAINES VALUES OF 6 ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...IF NOT FRI NIGHT...THEN SAT NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MOST
AREAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. VENTILATION WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT...EXCEPT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE POOR TO FAIR VALUES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST-SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL
NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN NM DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT NEARLY STATIONARY SFC
BOUNDARY/FRONT DRAPED FROM THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTHEAST TO NEAR
KCVN COULD HELP KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS GOING UNTIL AROUND
26/06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  44  77  47  80 /  30   5   5  10
DULCE...........................  35  72  37  74 /  50  10  10  10
CUBA............................  38  72  41  76 /  50  10  10  10
GALLUP..........................  38  74  39  77 /  40  10  10  10
EL MORRO........................  37  71  38  76 /  50  10  10  10
GRANTS..........................  38  74  39  79 /  40  10  10  10
QUEMADO.........................  40  74  42  78 /  30  20  20  10
GLENWOOD........................  42  79  45  82 /  20   5   5   5
CHAMA...........................  31  66  33  70 /  50  20  20  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  44  69  47  74 /  60  10  20  20
PECOS...........................  38  71  39  76 /  40  10  10  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  34  70  39  74 /  50  20  20  30
RED RIVER.......................  33  61  32  64 /  60  20  20  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  29  67  28  69 /  40  20  20  50
TAOS............................  34  70  38  74 /  30  10  10  20
MORA............................  38  70  39  73 /  40  10  10  40
ESPANOLA........................  39  77  41  80 /  40  10  10  10
SANTA FE........................  42  72  44  77 /  40  10  10  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  43  74  46  79 /  40  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  49  75  53  80 /  30   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  52  77  56  82 /  30   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  47  79  50  84 /  30   0   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  47  78  51  83 /  30   0   5  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  50  80  52  85 /  30   5   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  49  78  52  81 /  30   0   5  10
SOCORRO.........................  50  80  52  86 /  40   0   5   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  45  73  49  77 /  30  10  10  10
TIJERAS.........................  45  74  49  79 /  30  10  10  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  43  76  46  81 /  30   5  10  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  42  72  46  78 /  30  10  10  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  46  75  48  79 /  30   5  10   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  49  77  52  82 /  20   5   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  51  72  46  77 /  30  10  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  42  72  42  78 /  40  10  10  30
RATON...........................  43  74  44  79 /  30  10  10  20
SPRINGER........................  43  76  45  81 /  30  10  10  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  42  72  43  77 /  30  10  10  20
CLAYTON.........................  48  75  51  83 /  20   5  10  20
ROY.............................  47  76  49  81 /  20   5   5  20
CONCHAS.........................  51  82  51  88 /  20   5   5  10
SANTA ROSA......................  51  82  51  87 /  20   5   5  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  53  82  54  88 /  20   5   5  10
CLOVIS..........................  52  81  55  86 /  10   5   5  10
PORTALES........................  53  83  56  88 /  10   5   5  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  53  84  54  87 /  20   5   5  10
ROSWELL.........................  55  87  56  91 /  10   5   5  10
PICACHO.........................  52  84  52  87 /  20   5   5  10
ELK.............................  50  78  50  82 /  20   5  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52



000
FXUS65 KABQ 252121
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
321 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE STATE. THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION
INTO THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS WANING STEADILY AFTER
DARK. BY TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORM COVERAGE
WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES. ANOTHER WET
PERIOD WILL THEN BE ESTABLISHED FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
RETURNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT WAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TREKKING
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND ADVECTING SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INTO NM. DAYTIME HEATING HAS AGAIN DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PERSISTING...AND BREEZES
HAVE BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE. AS THE WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN
PARTS OF NM LATE THIS EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY WANE AND DECREASE IN
COVERAGE.

FOR TUESDAY SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER NM WITH RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS. ENOUGH REMNANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE DAYTIME
HEATING WILL INDUCE WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT LOCALIZED UPSLOPE FLOW
TO AID DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESPOND UPWARD DUE TO
THE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES. TUESDAY WILL
ACTUALLY BE THE FIRST DAY IN A WHILE WHERE TEMPERATURE READINGS
ARE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A LONGER WAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND OFF OF THE
PACIFIC. A MEAGER COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...BUT
THINGS WILL TREND WETTER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DRAWS IN MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
OUTBREAK OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE EAST INTO THURSDAY.
FROM THERE THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RELAXES OVER THE AMERICAN
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN TO SURFACE FEATURES...INCLUDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTRUSIONS. A SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WOULD BE THE FIRST
REINFORCEMENT FOR LATE FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE WOULD BE RECYCLED FOR
DECENT CROPS OF STORMS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A WEAK...AND FAIRLY ILL-DEFINED...UPPER HIGH WILL THEN TRY TO
ESTABLISH CLOSE TO NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTENTION WILL BE DRAWN
FARTHER SOUTH IN THE BAJA REGION WHERE A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BE
GATHERING STRENGTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NM THIS MORNING WILL EXIT
EASTWARD...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL SWING INTO NORTHWEST NM
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING RAINS
MAY BE MORE SPOTTY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED.

ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND OVERALL...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY. STILL EXPECTING
STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IF A WEAK WIND SHIFT NUDGES UP TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...BUT WILL STAY
ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NM FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SSELY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DRAW UP
GULF MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...AND MAY RESULT IN STORMS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AS EARLY AS WED EVE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO
WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM WED AND THURS. IN FACT...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY WED...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA.
NONETHELESS...HAINES VALUES OF 6 ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...IF NOT FRI NIGHT...THEN SAT NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MOST
AREAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. VENTILATION WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT...EXCEPT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE POOR TO FAIR VALUES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST-SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL
NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN NM DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT NEARLY STATIONARY SFC
BOUNDARY/FRONT DRAPED FROM THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTHEAST TO NEAR
KCVN COULD HELP KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS GOING UNTIL AROUND
26/06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  44  77  47  80 /  30   5   5  10
DULCE...........................  35  72  37  74 /  50  10  10  10
CUBA............................  38  72  41  76 /  50  10  10  10
GALLUP..........................  38  74  39  77 /  40  10  10  10
EL MORRO........................  37  71  38  76 /  50  10  10  10
GRANTS..........................  38  74  39  79 /  40  10  10  10
QUEMADO.........................  40  74  42  78 /  30  20  20  10
GLENWOOD........................  42  79  45  82 /  20   5   5   5
CHAMA...........................  31  66  33  70 /  50  20  20  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  44  69  47  74 /  60  10  20  20
PECOS...........................  38  71  39  76 /  40  10  10  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  34  70  39  74 /  50  20  20  30
RED RIVER.......................  33  61  32  64 /  60  20  20  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  29  67  28  69 /  40  20  20  50
TAOS............................  34  70  38  74 /  30  10  10  20
MORA............................  38  70  39  73 /  40  10  10  40
ESPANOLA........................  39  77  41  80 /  40  10  10  10
SANTA FE........................  42  72  44  77 /  40  10  10  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  43  74  46  79 /  40  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  49  75  53  80 /  30   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  52  77  56  82 /  30   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  47  79  50  84 /  30   0   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  47  78  51  83 /  30   0   5  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  50  80  52  85 /  30   5   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  49  78  52  81 /  30   0   5  10
SOCORRO.........................  50  80  52  86 /  40   0   5   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  45  73  49  77 /  30  10  10  10
TIJERAS.........................  45  74  49  79 /  30  10  10  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  43  76  46  81 /  30   5  10  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  42  72  46  78 /  30  10  10  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  46  75  48  79 /  30   5  10   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  49  77  52  82 /  20   5   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  51  72  46  77 /  30  10  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  42  72  42  78 /  40  10  10  30
RATON...........................  43  74  44  79 /  30  10  10  20
SPRINGER........................  43  76  45  81 /  30  10  10  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  42  72  43  77 /  30  10  10  20
CLAYTON.........................  48  75  51  83 /  20   5  10  20
ROY.............................  47  76  49  81 /  20   5   5  20
CONCHAS.........................  51  82  51  88 /  20   5   5  10
SANTA ROSA......................  51  82  51  87 /  20   5   5  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  53  82  54  88 /  20   5   5  10
CLOVIS..........................  52  81  55  86 /  10   5   5  10
PORTALES........................  53  83  56  88 /  10   5   5  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  53  84  54  87 /  20   5   5  10
ROSWELL.........................  55  87  56  91 /  10   5   5  10
PICACHO.........................  52  84  52  87 /  20   5   5  10
ELK.............................  50  78  50  82 /  20   5  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52



000
FXUS65 KABQ 252121
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
321 PM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A DISTURBANCE ALOFT IS CURRENTLY PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION AND INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...BRINGING ADDITIONAL
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE STATE. THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE WILL REMAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION
INTO THE EVENING WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS WANING STEADILY AFTER
DARK. BY TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORM COVERAGE
WHILE ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES. ANOTHER WET
PERIOD WILL THEN BE ESTABLISHED FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE
RETURNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT WAVE TROUGH CAN BE SEEN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...TREKKING
SOUTH OF THE FOUR CORNERS AND ADVECTING SOME UPPER LEVEL FORCING
INTO NM. DAYTIME HEATING HAS AGAIN DESTABILIZED THE BOUNDARY
LAYER WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND STORMS REDEVELOPING
THIS AFTERNOON...FAVORING THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE.
COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO PERSISTING...AND BREEZES
HAVE BEEN LIGHT TO MODERATE. AS THE WAVE SHIFTS INTO THE EASTERN
PARTS OF NM LATE THIS EVENING AND THE ATMOSPHERE
DECOUPLES...SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD QUICKLY WANE AND DECREASE IN
COVERAGE.

FOR TUESDAY SHORT WAVE RIDGING MOVES OVER NM WITH RISING PRESSURE
HEIGHTS. ENOUGH REMNANT BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL BE PRESENT TO INITIATE A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE DAYTIME
HEATING WILL INDUCE WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT LOCALIZED UPSLOPE FLOW
TO AID DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESPOND UPWARD DUE TO
THE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES. TUESDAY WILL
ACTUALLY BE THE FIRST DAY IN A WHILE WHERE TEMPERATURE READINGS
ARE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY ON WEDNESDAY IN
RESPONSE TO A LONGER WAVE TROUGH MOVING INLAND OFF OF THE
PACIFIC. A MEAGER COVERAGE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OR
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME WEDNESDAY...BUT
THINGS WILL TREND WETTER BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE RETURN FLOW
FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO DRAWS IN MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN
OUTBREAK OF SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN ZONES OF THE FORECAST AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BECOMING MORE WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE EAST INTO THURSDAY.
FROM THERE THE WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT RELAXES OVER THE AMERICAN
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...AND THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION
WILL TURN TO SURFACE FEATURES...INCLUDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE
INTRUSIONS. A SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WOULD BE THE FIRST
REINFORCEMENT FOR LATE FRIDAY. THIS MOISTURE WOULD BE RECYCLED FOR
DECENT CROPS OF STORMS OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

A WEAK...AND FAIRLY ILL-DEFINED...UPPER HIGH WILL THEN TRY TO
ESTABLISH CLOSE TO NM EARLY NEXT WEEK. ATTENTION WILL BE DRAWN
FARTHER SOUTH IN THE BAJA REGION WHERE A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD BE
GATHERING STRENGTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NM THIS MORNING WILL EXIT
EASTWARD...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL SWING INTO NORTHWEST NM
TODAY. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING RAINS
MAY BE MORE SPOTTY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET...AND GOOD TO EXCELLENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE
EXPECTED.

ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND OVERALL...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY. STILL EXPECTING
STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IF A WEAK WIND SHIFT NUDGES UP TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...BUT WILL STAY
ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NM FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SSELY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DRAW UP
GULF MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...AND MAY RESULT IN STORMS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AS EARLY AS WED EVE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO
WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM WED AND THURS. IN FACT...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY WED...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA.
NONETHELESS...HAINES VALUES OF 6 ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...IF NOT FRI NIGHT...THEN SAT NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MOST
AREAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. VENTILATION WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT...EXCEPT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE POOR TO FAIR VALUES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE

ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST-SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL
NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN NM DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT NEARLY STATIONARY SFC
BOUNDARY/FRONT DRAPED FROM THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTHEAST TO NEAR
KCVN COULD HELP KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS GOING UNTIL AROUND
26/06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  44  77  47  80 /  30   5   5  10
DULCE...........................  35  72  37  74 /  50  10  10  10
CUBA............................  38  72  41  76 /  50  10  10  10
GALLUP..........................  38  74  39  77 /  40  10  10  10
EL MORRO........................  37  71  38  76 /  50  10  10  10
GRANTS..........................  38  74  39  79 /  40  10  10  10
QUEMADO.........................  40  74  42  78 /  30  20  20  10
GLENWOOD........................  42  79  45  82 /  20   5   5   5
CHAMA...........................  31  66  33  70 /  50  20  20  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  44  69  47  74 /  60  10  20  20
PECOS...........................  38  71  39  76 /  40  10  10  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  34  70  39  74 /  50  20  20  30
RED RIVER.......................  33  61  32  64 /  60  20  20  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  29  67  28  69 /  40  20  20  50
TAOS............................  34  70  38  74 /  30  10  10  20
MORA............................  38  70  39  73 /  40  10  10  40
ESPANOLA........................  39  77  41  80 /  40  10  10  10
SANTA FE........................  42  72  44  77 /  40  10  10  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  43  74  46  79 /  40  10  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  49  75  53  80 /  30   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  52  77  56  82 /  30   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  47  79  50  84 /  30   0   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  47  78  51  83 /  30   0   5  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  50  80  52  85 /  30   5   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  49  78  52  81 /  30   0   5  10
SOCORRO.........................  50  80  52  86 /  40   0   5   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  45  73  49  77 /  30  10  10  10
TIJERAS.........................  45  74  49  79 /  30  10  10  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  43  76  46  81 /  30   5  10  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  42  72  46  78 /  30  10  10  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  46  75  48  79 /  30   5  10   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  49  77  52  82 /  20   5   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  51  72  46  77 /  30  10  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  42  72  42  78 /  40  10  10  30
RATON...........................  43  74  44  79 /  30  10  10  20
SPRINGER........................  43  76  45  81 /  30  10  10  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  42  72  43  77 /  30  10  10  20
CLAYTON.........................  48  75  51  83 /  20   5  10  20
ROY.............................  47  76  49  81 /  20   5   5  20
CONCHAS.........................  51  82  51  88 /  20   5   5  10
SANTA ROSA......................  51  82  51  87 /  20   5   5  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  53  82  54  88 /  20   5   5  10
CLOVIS..........................  52  81  55  86 /  10   5   5  10
PORTALES........................  53  83  56  88 /  10   5   5  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  53  84  54  87 /  20   5   5  10
ROSWELL.........................  55  87  56  91 /  10   5   5  10
PICACHO.........................  52  84  52  87 /  20   5   5  10
ELK.............................  50  78  50  82 /  20   5  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52



000
FXUS65 KABQ 251754
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1154 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST-SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL
NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN NM DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT NEARLY STATIONARY SFC
BOUNDARY/FRONT DRAPED FROM THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTHEAST TO NEAR
KCVN COULD HELP KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS GOING UNTIL AROUND
26/06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL START TODAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. HOWEVER...TODAY WILL SEE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING THE
NORTH AND WEST BEFORE THE UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO LIFTS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. DRIER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EAST AND CENTRAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO SURGES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING AS ONE WAVE EXITS...BUT ANOTHER IS
UPSTREAM AND POISED TO START ANOTHER CYCLE OF INCREASING SHOWERS AND
STORMS WEST AND NORTH FOR TODAY. MODELS HAVE TAKEN THIS INCOMING WAVE
PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER SOUTH...SO STRETCHED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. GENERAL THEME FOR TUESDAY IS DRIER...AND POPS LIMITED
TO MAINLY MTS. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WEST BUT AS A TREND TOWARD
SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN INCOMING TROUGH...THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL STAY
TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION CENTRAL AND
EAST...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES AND A STRONGER FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THE GFS SEEMS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THAN 24 HRS AGO. EARLY
NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND POSSIBLY WINDY...BUT THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IS STILL A
FIXTURE NEXT WEEK...AND GFS PUSHES SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARDS THE BOOTHEEL
FROM IT. NEW ECMWF SIMILAR BUT SLOWER BY A DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NM THIS MORNING WILL EXIT
EASTWARD...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL SWING INTO NORTHWEST
NM TODAY. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING RAINS
MAY BE MORE SPOTTY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...AND
GOOD TO EXCELLENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED.

ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND OVERALL...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY. STILL EXPECTING
STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IF A WEAK WIND SHIFT NUDGES UP TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...BUT WILL STAY
ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NM FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SSELY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DRAW UP
GULF MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...AND MAY RESULT IN STORMS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AS EARLY AS WED EVE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO
WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM WED AND THURS. IN FACT...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY WED...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA.
NONETHELESS...HAINES VALUES OF 6 ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...IF NOT FRI NIGHT...THEN SAT NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MOST
AREAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. VENTILATION WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT...EXCEPT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE POOR TO FAIR VALUES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33





000
FXUS65 KABQ 251754 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1154 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST-SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL
NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN NM DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT NEARLY STATIONARY SFC
BOUNDARY/FRONT DRAPED FROM THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTHEAST TO NEAR
KCVN COULD HELP KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS GOING UNTIL AROUND
26/06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL START TODAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. HOWEVER...TODAY WILL SEE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING THE
NORTH AND WEST BEFORE THE UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO LIFTS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. DRIER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EAST AND CENTRAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO SURGES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING AS ONE WAVE EXITS...BUT ANOTHER IS
UPSTREAM AND POISED TO START ANOTHER CYCLE OF INCREASING SHOWERS AND
STORMS WEST AND NORTH FOR TODAY. MODELS HAVE TAKEN THIS INCOMING WAVE
PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER SOUTH...SO STRETCHED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. GENERAL THEME FOR TUESDAY IS DRIER...AND POPS LIMITED
TO MAINLY MTS. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WEST BUT AS A TREND TOWARD
SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN INCOMING TROUGH...THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL STAY
TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION CENTRAL AND
EAST...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES AND A STRONGER FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THE GFS SEEMS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THAN 24 HRS AGO. EARLY
NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND POSSIBLY WINDY...BUT THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IS STILL A
FIXTURE NEXT WEEK...AND GFS PUSHES SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARDS THE BOOTHEEL
FROM IT. NEW ECMWF SIMILAR BUT SLOWER BY A DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NM THIS MORNING WILL EXIT
EASTWARD...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL SWING INTO NORTHWEST
NM TODAY. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING RAINS
MAY BE MORE SPOTTY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...AND
GOOD TO EXCELLENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED.

ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND OVERALL...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY. STILL EXPECTING
STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IF A WEAK WIND SHIFT NUDGES UP TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...BUT WILL STAY
ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NM FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SSELY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DRAW UP
GULF MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...AND MAY RESULT IN STORMS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AS EARLY AS WED EVE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO
WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM WED AND THURS. IN FACT...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY WED...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA.
NONETHELESS...HAINES VALUES OF 6 ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...IF NOT FRI NIGHT...THEN SAT NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MOST
AREAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. VENTILATION WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT...EXCEPT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE POOR TO FAIR VALUES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33




000
FXUS65 KABQ 251754 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1154 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST-SEWD THROUGH CENTRAL
NM THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP OVER WRN NM DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON AND MOVE EAST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS. MOST SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT NEARLY STATIONARY SFC
BOUNDARY/FRONT DRAPED FROM THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTHEAST TO NEAR
KCVN COULD HELP KEEP A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS GOING UNTIL AROUND
26/06Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL START TODAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. HOWEVER...TODAY WILL SEE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING THE
NORTH AND WEST BEFORE THE UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO LIFTS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. DRIER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EAST AND CENTRAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO SURGES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING AS ONE WAVE EXITS...BUT ANOTHER IS
UPSTREAM AND POISED TO START ANOTHER CYCLE OF INCREASING SHOWERS AND
STORMS WEST AND NORTH FOR TODAY. MODELS HAVE TAKEN THIS INCOMING WAVE
PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER SOUTH...SO STRETCHED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. GENERAL THEME FOR TUESDAY IS DRIER...AND POPS LIMITED
TO MAINLY MTS. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WEST BUT AS A TREND TOWARD
SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN INCOMING TROUGH...THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL STAY
TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION CENTRAL AND
EAST...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES AND A STRONGER FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THE GFS SEEMS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THAN 24 HRS AGO. EARLY
NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND POSSIBLY WINDY...BUT THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IS STILL A
FIXTURE NEXT WEEK...AND GFS PUSHES SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARDS THE BOOTHEEL
FROM IT. NEW ECMWF SIMILAR BUT SLOWER BY A DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NM THIS MORNING WILL EXIT
EASTWARD...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL SWING INTO NORTHWEST
NM TODAY. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING RAINS
MAY BE MORE SPOTTY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...AND
GOOD TO EXCELLENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED.

ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND OVERALL...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY. STILL EXPECTING
STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IF A WEAK WIND SHIFT NUDGES UP TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...BUT WILL STAY
ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NM FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SSELY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DRAW UP
GULF MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...AND MAY RESULT IN STORMS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AS EARLY AS WED EVE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO
WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM WED AND THURS. IN FACT...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY WED...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA.
NONETHELESS...HAINES VALUES OF 6 ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...IF NOT FRI NIGHT...THEN SAT NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MOST
AREAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. VENTILATION WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT...EXCEPT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE POOR TO FAIR VALUES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33



000
FXUS65 KABQ 251136
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
536 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS NM RESULTING IN SHRA
AND TSRA DEVELOPING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF NM AND
SHIFTING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY LATE AFTN. HAVE ADDED A
MENTION OF TS AT KGUP...KAEG AND KABQ THIS AFTN WHERE BEST CHANCES
OF STORMS APPEAR TO EXIST. LEFT VCSH AT KFMN AND KSAF WHERE LESS
CONFIDENCE RESIDES. BRIEF MVFR CIGS AND MTN OBSCURATIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM. GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL.
MOST STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BETWEEN 03Z AND 06Z TUE.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF
I-40 WITHIN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTN.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL START TODAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. HOWEVER...TODAY WILL SEE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING THE
NORTH AND WEST BEFORE THE UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO LIFTS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. DRIER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EAST AND CENTRAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO SURGES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING AS ONE WAVE EXITS...BUT ANOTHER IS
UPSTREAM AND POISED TO START ANOTHER CYCLE OF INCREASING SHOWERS AND
STORMS WEST AND NORTH FOR TODAY. MODELS HAVE TAKEN THIS INCOMING WAVE
PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER SOUTH...SO STRETCHED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. GENERAL THEME FOR TUESDAY IS DRIER...AND POPS LIMITED
TO MAINLY MTS. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WEST BUT AS A TREND TOWARD
SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN INCOMING TROUGH...THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL STAY
TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION CENTRAL AND
EAST...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES AND A STRONGER FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THE GFS SEEMS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THAN 24 HRS AGO. EARLY
NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND POSSIBLY WINDY...BUT THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IS STILL A
FIXTURE NEXT WEEK...AND GFS PUSHES SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARDS THE BOOTHEEL
FROM IT. NEW ECMWF SIMILAR BUT SLOWER BY A DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NM THIS MORNING WILL EXIT
EASTWARD...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL SWING INTO NORTHWEST
NM TODAY. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING RAINS
MAY BE MORE SPOTTY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...AND
GOOD TO EXCELLENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED.

ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND OVERALL...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY. STILL EXPECTING
STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IF A WEAK WIND SHIFT NUDGES UP TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...BUT WILL STAY
ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NM FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SSELY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DRAW UP
GULF MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...AND MAY RESULT IN STORMS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AS EARLY AS WED EVE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO
WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM WED AND THURS. IN FACT...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY WED...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA.
NONETHELESS...HAINES VALUES OF 6 ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...IF NOT FRI NIGHT...THEN SAT NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MOST
AREAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. VENTILATION WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT...EXCEPT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE POOR TO FAIR VALUES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 250943
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL START TODAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. HOWEVER...TODAY WILL SEE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING THE
NORTH AND WEST BEFORE THE UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO LIFTS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. DRIER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EAST AND CENTRAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO SURGES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING AS ONE WAVE EXITS...BUT ANOTHER IS
UPSTREAM AND POISED TO START ANOTHER CYCLE OF INCREASING SHOWERS AND
STORMS WEST AND NORTH FOR TODAY. MODELS HAVE TAKEN THIS INCOMING WAVE
PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER SOUTH...SO STRETCHED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. GENERAL THEME FOR TUESDAY IS DRIER...AND POPS LIMITED
TO MAINLY MTS. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WEST BUT AS A TREND TOWARD
SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN INCOMING TROUGH...THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL STAY
TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION CENTRAL AND
EAST...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES AND A STRONGER FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THE GFS SEEMS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THAN 24 HRS AGO. EARLY
NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND POSSIBLY WINDY...BUT THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IS STILL A
FIXTURE NEXT WEEK...AND GFS PUSHES SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARDS THE BOOTHEEL
FROM IT. NEW ECMWF SIMILAR BUT SLOWER BY A DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NM THIS MORNING WILL EXIT
EASTWARD...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL SWING INTO NORTHWEST
NM TODAY. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING RAINS
MAY BE MORE SPOTTY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...AND
GOOD TO EXCELLENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED.

ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND OVERALL...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY. STILL EXPECTING
STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IF A WEAK WIND SHIFT NUDGES UP TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...BUT WILL STAY
ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NM FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SSELY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DRAW UP
GULF MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...AND MAY RESULT IN STORMS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AS EARLY AS WED EVE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO
WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM WED AND THURS. IN FACT...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY WED...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA.
NONETHELESS...HAINES VALUES OF 6 ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...IF NOT FRI NIGHT...THEN SAT NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MOST
AREAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. VENTILATION WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT...EXCEPT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE POOR TO FAIR VALUES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AROUND CENTRAL NM WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THOUGH MTN OBSCURATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE. TRICKY INITIAL
FORECAST IN REGARDS FOR POSSIBLE MORNING CIG REDUCTIONS THANKS TO
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN AREAS THAT RECENTLY RECEIVED RAIN. THESE PUTS
FOCUS ON THE AREA FROM KGUP EAST TO KABQ...SOUTH TO KONM AND THE
REST OF THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT
KGUP WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF KABQ BUT NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AT TERMINAL. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL SET UP ISO TO SCT SHRAS MONDAY...STARTING ACROSS
THE W AND SPREADING E THRU THE DAY. PUT LIGHT SHRA FOR HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE TERMINAL IMPACTS AND VCSH AS PLACE HOLDER FOR AREAS
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY DURING THE
DAY WITH AFTN GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  70  44  76  46 /  30  20   5   5
DULCE...........................  64  36  72  38 /  60  40   5   5
CUBA............................  65  39  72  42 /  50  40   5   5
GALLUP..........................  66  39  74  40 /  40  40   5   5
EL MORRO........................  63  38  71  41 /  40  30  10  10
GRANTS..........................  66  38  74  40 /  30  30   5   5
QUEMADO.........................  68  40  76  43 /  20  20   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  75  43  80  46 /  10  10   5   5
CHAMA...........................  59  34  66  36 /  60  40  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  65  41  71  43 /  60  40   5   5
PECOS...........................  65  40  71  43 /  30  20   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  63  34  69  39 /  70  50  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  58  34  64  37 /  70  50  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  60  34  67  37 /  50  20  20  20
TAOS............................  64  35  70  39 /  30  20  10  10
MORA............................  65  39  70  41 /  40  20  10  20
ESPANOLA........................  69  41  76  44 /  40  30   5   5
SANTA FE........................  66  42  72  45 /  40  30   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  68  43  75  47 /  30  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  69  48  76  52 /  40  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  71  51  78  54 /  30  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  72  47  79  49 /  30  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  72  48  79  49 /  40  20   5   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  74  49  80  51 /  20  20   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  71  47  78  52 /  40  20   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  76  50  82  52 /  40  30   5   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  66  45  73  49 /  30  20   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  68  46  75  51 /  40  20   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  69  42  76  45 /  20  20   5   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  67  43  73  46 /  20  10   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  69  46  75  49 /  10  20   5   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  72  50  78  54 /  10  10   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  68  51  73  53 /  10   5  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  68  43  71  47 /  30  20   5  10
RATON...........................  71  42  75  44 /  30  30   5  10
SPRINGER........................  70  41  74  45 /  30  10   5  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  67  41  72  44 /  30  20   5  10
CLAYTON.........................  74  49  76  51 /  20  10   5  10
ROY.............................  72  47  75  48 /  20  10   5  10
CONCHAS.........................  76  49  80  50 /  20  10   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  78  50  81  51 /  20  10   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  81  52  83  54 /  20  10   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  78  51  82  55 /  10  10   5   5
PORTALES........................  80  52  83  56 /  10  10   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  80  53  84  55 /  10  10   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  84  54  88  56 /  10  10   5   5
PICACHO.........................  78  52  84  53 /  10  10   5   5
ELK.............................  73  51  78  53 /  10  10   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 250943
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL START TODAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. HOWEVER...TODAY WILL SEE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING THE
NORTH AND WEST BEFORE THE UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO LIFTS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. DRIER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EAST AND CENTRAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO SURGES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING AS ONE WAVE EXITS...BUT ANOTHER IS
UPSTREAM AND POISED TO START ANOTHER CYCLE OF INCREASING SHOWERS AND
STORMS WEST AND NORTH FOR TODAY. MODELS HAVE TAKEN THIS INCOMING WAVE
PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER SOUTH...SO STRETCHED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. GENERAL THEME FOR TUESDAY IS DRIER...AND POPS LIMITED
TO MAINLY MTS. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WEST BUT AS A TREND TOWARD
SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN INCOMING TROUGH...THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL STAY
TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION CENTRAL AND
EAST...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES AND A STRONGER FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THE GFS SEEMS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THAN 24 HRS AGO. EARLY
NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND POSSIBLY WINDY...BUT THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IS STILL A
FIXTURE NEXT WEEK...AND GFS PUSHES SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARDS THE BOOTHEEL
FROM IT. NEW ECMWF SIMILAR BUT SLOWER BY A DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NM THIS MORNING WILL EXIT
EASTWARD...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL SWING INTO NORTHWEST
NM TODAY. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING RAINS
MAY BE MORE SPOTTY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...AND
GOOD TO EXCELLENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED.

ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND OVERALL...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY. STILL EXPECTING
STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IF A WEAK WIND SHIFT NUDGES UP TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...BUT WILL STAY
ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NM FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SSELY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DRAW UP
GULF MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...AND MAY RESULT IN STORMS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AS EARLY AS WED EVE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO
WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM WED AND THURS. IN FACT...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY WED...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA.
NONETHELESS...HAINES VALUES OF 6 ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...IF NOT FRI NIGHT...THEN SAT NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MOST
AREAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. VENTILATION WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT...EXCEPT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE POOR TO FAIR VALUES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AROUND CENTRAL NM WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THOUGH MTN OBSCURATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE. TRICKY INITIAL
FORECAST IN REGARDS FOR POSSIBLE MORNING CIG REDUCTIONS THANKS TO
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN AREAS THAT RECENTLY RECEIVED RAIN. THESE PUTS
FOCUS ON THE AREA FROM KGUP EAST TO KABQ...SOUTH TO KONM AND THE
REST OF THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT
KGUP WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF KABQ BUT NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AT TERMINAL. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL SET UP ISO TO SCT SHRAS MONDAY...STARTING ACROSS
THE W AND SPREADING E THRU THE DAY. PUT LIGHT SHRA FOR HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE TERMINAL IMPACTS AND VCSH AS PLACE HOLDER FOR AREAS
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY DURING THE
DAY WITH AFTN GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  70  44  76  46 /  30  20   5   5
DULCE...........................  64  36  72  38 /  60  40   5   5
CUBA............................  65  39  72  42 /  50  40   5   5
GALLUP..........................  66  39  74  40 /  40  40   5   5
EL MORRO........................  63  38  71  41 /  40  30  10  10
GRANTS..........................  66  38  74  40 /  30  30   5   5
QUEMADO.........................  68  40  76  43 /  20  20   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  75  43  80  46 /  10  10   5   5
CHAMA...........................  59  34  66  36 /  60  40  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  65  41  71  43 /  60  40   5   5
PECOS...........................  65  40  71  43 /  30  20   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  63  34  69  39 /  70  50  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  58  34  64  37 /  70  50  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  60  34  67  37 /  50  20  20  20
TAOS............................  64  35  70  39 /  30  20  10  10
MORA............................  65  39  70  41 /  40  20  10  20
ESPANOLA........................  69  41  76  44 /  40  30   5   5
SANTA FE........................  66  42  72  45 /  40  30   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  68  43  75  47 /  30  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  69  48  76  52 /  40  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  71  51  78  54 /  30  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  72  47  79  49 /  30  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  72  48  79  49 /  40  20   5   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  74  49  80  51 /  20  20   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  71  47  78  52 /  40  20   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  76  50  82  52 /  40  30   5   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  66  45  73  49 /  30  20   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  68  46  75  51 /  40  20   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  69  42  76  45 /  20  20   5   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  67  43  73  46 /  20  10   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  69  46  75  49 /  10  20   5   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  72  50  78  54 /  10  10   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  68  51  73  53 /  10   5  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  68  43  71  47 /  30  20   5  10
RATON...........................  71  42  75  44 /  30  30   5  10
SPRINGER........................  70  41  74  45 /  30  10   5  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  67  41  72  44 /  30  20   5  10
CLAYTON.........................  74  49  76  51 /  20  10   5  10
ROY.............................  72  47  75  48 /  20  10   5  10
CONCHAS.........................  76  49  80  50 /  20  10   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  78  50  81  51 /  20  10   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  81  52  83  54 /  20  10   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  78  51  82  55 /  10  10   5   5
PORTALES........................  80  52  83  56 /  10  10   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  80  53  84  55 /  10  10   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  84  54  88  56 /  10  10   5   5
PICACHO.........................  78  52  84  53 /  10  10   5   5
ELK.............................  73  51  78  53 /  10  10   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 250943
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL START TODAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. HOWEVER...TODAY WILL SEE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING THE
NORTH AND WEST BEFORE THE UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO LIFTS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. DRIER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EAST AND CENTRAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO SURGES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING AS ONE WAVE EXITS...BUT ANOTHER IS
UPSTREAM AND POISED TO START ANOTHER CYCLE OF INCREASING SHOWERS AND
STORMS WEST AND NORTH FOR TODAY. MODELS HAVE TAKEN THIS INCOMING WAVE
PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER SOUTH...SO STRETCHED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. GENERAL THEME FOR TUESDAY IS DRIER...AND POPS LIMITED
TO MAINLY MTS. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WEST BUT AS A TREND TOWARD
SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN INCOMING TROUGH...THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL STAY
TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION CENTRAL AND
EAST...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES AND A STRONGER FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THE GFS SEEMS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THAN 24 HRS AGO. EARLY
NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND POSSIBLY WINDY...BUT THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IS STILL A
FIXTURE NEXT WEEK...AND GFS PUSHES SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARDS THE BOOTHEEL
FROM IT. NEW ECMWF SIMILAR BUT SLOWER BY A DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NM THIS MORNING WILL EXIT
EASTWARD...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL SWING INTO NORTHWEST
NM TODAY. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING RAINS
MAY BE MORE SPOTTY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...AND
GOOD TO EXCELLENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED.

ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND OVERALL...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY. STILL EXPECTING
STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IF A WEAK WIND SHIFT NUDGES UP TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...BUT WILL STAY
ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NM FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SSELY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DRAW UP
GULF MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...AND MAY RESULT IN STORMS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AS EARLY AS WED EVE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO
WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM WED AND THURS. IN FACT...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY WED...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA.
NONETHELESS...HAINES VALUES OF 6 ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...IF NOT FRI NIGHT...THEN SAT NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MOST
AREAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. VENTILATION WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT...EXCEPT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE POOR TO FAIR VALUES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AROUND CENTRAL NM WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THOUGH MTN OBSCURATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE. TRICKY INITIAL
FORECAST IN REGARDS FOR POSSIBLE MORNING CIG REDUCTIONS THANKS TO
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN AREAS THAT RECENTLY RECEIVED RAIN. THESE PUTS
FOCUS ON THE AREA FROM KGUP EAST TO KABQ...SOUTH TO KONM AND THE
REST OF THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT
KGUP WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF KABQ BUT NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AT TERMINAL. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL SET UP ISO TO SCT SHRAS MONDAY...STARTING ACROSS
THE W AND SPREADING E THRU THE DAY. PUT LIGHT SHRA FOR HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE TERMINAL IMPACTS AND VCSH AS PLACE HOLDER FOR AREAS
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY DURING THE
DAY WITH AFTN GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  70  44  76  46 /  30  20   5   5
DULCE...........................  64  36  72  38 /  60  40   5   5
CUBA............................  65  39  72  42 /  50  40   5   5
GALLUP..........................  66  39  74  40 /  40  40   5   5
EL MORRO........................  63  38  71  41 /  40  30  10  10
GRANTS..........................  66  38  74  40 /  30  30   5   5
QUEMADO.........................  68  40  76  43 /  20  20   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  75  43  80  46 /  10  10   5   5
CHAMA...........................  59  34  66  36 /  60  40  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  65  41  71  43 /  60  40   5   5
PECOS...........................  65  40  71  43 /  30  20   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  63  34  69  39 /  70  50  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  58  34  64  37 /  70  50  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  60  34  67  37 /  50  20  20  20
TAOS............................  64  35  70  39 /  30  20  10  10
MORA............................  65  39  70  41 /  40  20  10  20
ESPANOLA........................  69  41  76  44 /  40  30   5   5
SANTA FE........................  66  42  72  45 /  40  30   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  68  43  75  47 /  30  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  69  48  76  52 /  40  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  71  51  78  54 /  30  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  72  47  79  49 /  30  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  72  48  79  49 /  40  20   5   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  74  49  80  51 /  20  20   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  71  47  78  52 /  40  20   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  76  50  82  52 /  40  30   5   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  66  45  73  49 /  30  20   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  68  46  75  51 /  40  20   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  69  42  76  45 /  20  20   5   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  67  43  73  46 /  20  10   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  69  46  75  49 /  10  20   5   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  72  50  78  54 /  10  10   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  68  51  73  53 /  10   5  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  68  43  71  47 /  30  20   5  10
RATON...........................  71  42  75  44 /  30  30   5  10
SPRINGER........................  70  41  74  45 /  30  10   5  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  67  41  72  44 /  30  20   5  10
CLAYTON.........................  74  49  76  51 /  20  10   5  10
ROY.............................  72  47  75  48 /  20  10   5  10
CONCHAS.........................  76  49  80  50 /  20  10   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  78  50  81  51 /  20  10   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  81  52  83  54 /  20  10   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  78  51  82  55 /  10  10   5   5
PORTALES........................  80  52  83  56 /  10  10   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  80  53  84  55 /  10  10   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  84  54  88  56 /  10  10   5   5
PICACHO.........................  78  52  84  53 /  10  10   5   5
ELK.............................  73  51  78  53 /  10  10   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 250943
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL START TODAY AND CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS. HOWEVER...TODAY WILL SEE MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS FAVORING THE
NORTH AND WEST BEFORE THE UPPER LOW OVER COLORADO LIFTS INTO THE
UPPER MIDWEST. DRIER TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THEN SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD EAST AND CENTRAL WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK DUE TO SURGES OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE REGION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS DIMINISHING EARLY THIS MORNING AS ONE WAVE EXITS...BUT ANOTHER IS
UPSTREAM AND POISED TO START ANOTHER CYCLE OF INCREASING SHOWERS AND
STORMS WEST AND NORTH FOR TODAY. MODELS HAVE TAKEN THIS INCOMING WAVE
PROGRESSIVELY FARTHER SOUTH...SO STRETCHED AT LEAST SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
OVER THE ENTIRE CWA. GENERAL THEME FOR TUESDAY IS DRIER...AND POPS LIMITED
TO MAINLY MTS. WEDNESDAY WILL REMAIN MOSTLY DRY WEST BUT AS A TREND TOWARD
SLY FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF AN INCOMING TROUGH...THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST WILL SEE INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. FOR NOW IT APPEARS ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL STAY
TO OUR NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY.

THURSDAY INTO SATURDAY WILL FEATURE BEST CHANCES FOR CONVECTION CENTRAL AND
EAST...AS THE UPPER TROUGH PASSES AND A STRONGER FRONT PUSHES INTO THE
EASTERN PLAINS. THE GFS SEEMS SLOWER WITH THE FRONT THAN 24 HRS AGO. EARLY
NEXT WEEK LOOKS DRY AND POSSIBLY WINDY...BUT THE TROPICAL SYSTEM IS STILL A
FIXTURE NEXT WEEK...AND GFS PUSHES SOME MOISTURE UP TOWARDS THE BOOTHEEL
FROM IT. NEW ECMWF SIMILAR BUT SLOWER BY A DAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER SOUTHERN NM THIS MORNING WILL EXIT
EASTWARD...BUT ADDITIONAL ENERGY WILL SWING INTO NORTHWEST
NM TODAY. AS A RESULT...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST HALF OR SO OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. WETTING RAINS
MAY BE MORE SPOTTY. ELSEWHERE...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...AND
GOOD TO EXCELLENT RELATIVE HUMIDITY RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED.

ZONAL FLOW IS EXPECTED ON TUESDAY...AND OVERALL...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE LESS THAN TODAY. STILL EXPECTING
STORMS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND PERHAPS THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS IF A WEAK WIND SHIFT NUDGES UP TO THE
AREA. OTHERWISE...HUMIDITIES WILL TREND DOWNWARD...BUT WILL STAY
ABOVE 20 PERCENT FOR MOST AREAS.

AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES NM FROM THE WEST ON WEDNESDAY AND WED
NIGHT...LOW LEVEL SOUTH TO SSELY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS WILL DRAW UP
GULF MOISTURE ONCE AGAIN...AND MAY RESULT IN STORMS ACROSS THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS AS EARLY AS WED EVE. AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS NM ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED FROM THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MEANWHILE...MUCH DRIER AIR SHOULD FILTER INTO
WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM WED AND THURS. IN FACT...DAYTIME
HUMIDITIES SHOULD FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE
BREEZY...ESPECIALLY WED...THEY WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA.
NONETHELESS...HAINES VALUES OF 6 ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY.

ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS
FRIDAY...AND CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTHWARD THRU THE PLAINS FRIDAY
NIGHT. IT LOOKS LIKE IT WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...IF NOT FRI NIGHT...THEN SAT NIGHT.  OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE ACROSS AT LEAST THE EASTERN
PLAINS.

OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY WITH MOST
AREAS WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL FOR LATE MAY. VENTILATION WILL
BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT...EXCEPT ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST WHERE POOR TO FAIR VALUES ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AROUND CENTRAL NM WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THOUGH MTN OBSCURATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE. TRICKY INITIAL
FORECAST IN REGARDS FOR POSSIBLE MORNING CIG REDUCTIONS THANKS TO
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN AREAS THAT RECENTLY RECEIVED RAIN. THESE PUTS
FOCUS ON THE AREA FROM KGUP EAST TO KABQ...SOUTH TO KONM AND THE
REST OF THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT
KGUP WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF KABQ BUT NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AT TERMINAL. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL SET UP ISO TO SCT SHRAS MONDAY...STARTING ACROSS
THE W AND SPREADING E THRU THE DAY. PUT LIGHT SHRA FOR HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE TERMINAL IMPACTS AND VCSH AS PLACE HOLDER FOR AREAS
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY DURING THE
DAY WITH AFTN GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  70  44  76  46 /  30  20   5   5
DULCE...........................  64  36  72  38 /  60  40   5   5
CUBA............................  65  39  72  42 /  50  40   5   5
GALLUP..........................  66  39  74  40 /  40  40   5   5
EL MORRO........................  63  38  71  41 /  40  30  10  10
GRANTS..........................  66  38  74  40 /  30  30   5   5
QUEMADO.........................  68  40  76  43 /  20  20   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  75  43  80  46 /  10  10   5   5
CHAMA...........................  59  34  66  36 /  60  40  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  65  41  71  43 /  60  40   5   5
PECOS...........................  65  40  71  43 /  30  20   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  63  34  69  39 /  70  50  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  58  34  64  37 /  70  50  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  60  34  67  37 /  50  20  20  20
TAOS............................  64  35  70  39 /  30  20  10  10
MORA............................  65  39  70  41 /  40  20  10  20
ESPANOLA........................  69  41  76  44 /  40  30   5   5
SANTA FE........................  66  42  72  45 /  40  30   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  68  43  75  47 /  30  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  69  48  76  52 /  40  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  71  51  78  54 /  30  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  72  47  79  49 /  30  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  72  48  79  49 /  40  20   5   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  74  49  80  51 /  20  20   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  71  47  78  52 /  40  20   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  76  50  82  52 /  40  30   5   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  66  45  73  49 /  30  20   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  68  46  75  51 /  40  20   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  69  42  76  45 /  20  20   5   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  67  43  73  46 /  20  10   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  69  46  75  49 /  10  20   5   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  72  50  78  54 /  10  10   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  68  51  73  53 /  10   5  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  68  43  71  47 /  30  20   5  10
RATON...........................  71  42  75  44 /  30  30   5  10
SPRINGER........................  70  41  74  45 /  30  10   5  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  67  41  72  44 /  30  20   5  10
CLAYTON.........................  74  49  76  51 /  20  10   5  10
ROY.............................  72  47  75  48 /  20  10   5  10
CONCHAS.........................  76  49  80  50 /  20  10   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  78  50  81  51 /  20  10   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  81  52  83  54 /  20  10   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  78  51  82  55 /  10  10   5   5
PORTALES........................  80  52  83  56 /  10  10   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  80  53  84  55 /  10  10   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  84  54  88  56 /  10  10   5   5
PICACHO.........................  78  52  84  53 /  10  10   5   5
ELK.............................  73  51  78  53 /  10  10   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 250527 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1127 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AROUND CENTRAL NM WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THOUGH MTN OBSCURATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE. TRICKY INITIAL
FORECAST IN REGARDS FOR POSSIBLE MORNING CIG REDUCTIONS THANKS TO
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN AREAS THAT RECENTLY RECEIVED RAIN. THESE PUTS
FOCUS ON THE AREA FROM KGUP EAST TO KABQ...SOUTH TO KONM AND THE
REST OF THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT
KGUP WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF KABQ BUT NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AT TERMINAL. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL SET UP ISO TO SCT SHRAS MONDAY...STARTING ACROSS
THE W AND SPREADING E THRU THE DAY. PUT LIGHT SHRA FOR HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE TERMINAL IMPACTS AND VCSH AS PLACE HOLDER FOR AREAS
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY DURING THE
DAY WITH AFTN GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...549 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED TO SCT SH/TS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN/CENTRAL NM
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL/NE AREAS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS THE DRIER
VARIETY WITH BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCD AND GUSTY WINDS. ABQ WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE AN IMPACT EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE USING VCSH AT MOST
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 03Z TO 05Z. TS IMPACTS LESS LIKELY. THE
NEXT PACIFIC WAVE SHOULD IMPACT WESTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND
HAVE THIS INDICATED AT FMN/GUP. MORE PREVAILING CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FROM WEST TO EAST AS MONDAY PROGRESSES. LATE SHIFTS
CAN UPDATE IN TERMS OF TS IMPACTS/LOWER CIGS. THERE WAS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT LOW CIG/FG DEVELOPMENT WITHIN RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TONIGHT AND SOME IMPACTS TO SAF/ABQ. DECIDED TO OPT OUT OF THAT
POSSIBILITY IN TERMS OF GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE. WILL
WATCH TRENDS IN LATER MODEL GUIDANCE AND SURFACE MOISTURE FIELDS.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN OVERALL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
ALMOST THREE WEEKS. NONETHELESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
CROSS FROM THE WEST. AFTER LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY A
VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TILT EASTWARD OVER NEW
MEXICO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DRAWING PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN...A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE CENTRAL AND EAST INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTING
OVER THE WESTERN US UNTIL THE WEEKEND...WHEN A SUMMER-LIKE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD. INJECTION OF MOISTURE WITH
FRIDAYS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF MOISTURE
AND COOL AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY...SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTION ACTIVE OVER NM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECYCLES EACH DAY.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL CO EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT NEWD NEXT 24 HRS...HOWEVER NOT BEFORE ADDITIONAL
ENERGY IN IT/S WAKE TRACKS OVER NM MONDAY. DRYLINE HAS SEEPED WWD
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE SHUNTED EWD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST THIRD WILL HAVE DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH WETTING RAIN TODAY...WITH CHANCES DECREASING TONIGHT. THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CHANCES
AGAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FINAL WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. CONSEQUENTLY...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY
IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE LIMITED TO
MAINLY THE NORTHERN MTS AND NEAR THE EASTERN NM BORDER WITH TX. THE
DRYLINE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...COULD KICK OFF CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
EASTWARD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY
WILL KEEP RAINFALL CHANCES GOING CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THIS WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SATURDAY WHEN POOR VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL. SOME DRYING ALOFT CENTRAL AND WEST AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN HIGH HAINES FOR THOSE AREAS BUT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURE REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK.
THE HIGH HAINES AREAS COINCIDE WITH MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD
STAY BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA. THE EXTENDED PERIODS /JUN 2-3/ OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGRATING UP
THE BAJA CA COAST.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 250527 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1127 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AROUND CENTRAL NM WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THOUGH MTN OBSCURATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE. TRICKY INITIAL
FORECAST IN REGARDS FOR POSSIBLE MORNING CIG REDUCTIONS THANKS TO
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN AREAS THAT RECENTLY RECEIVED RAIN. THESE PUTS
FOCUS ON THE AREA FROM KGUP EAST TO KABQ...SOUTH TO KONM AND THE
REST OF THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT
KGUP WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF KABQ BUT NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AT TERMINAL. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL SET UP ISO TO SCT SHRAS MONDAY...STARTING ACROSS
THE W AND SPREADING E THRU THE DAY. PUT LIGHT SHRA FOR HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE TERMINAL IMPACTS AND VCSH AS PLACE HOLDER FOR AREAS
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY DURING THE
DAY WITH AFTN GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...549 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED TO SCT SH/TS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN/CENTRAL NM
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL/NE AREAS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS THE DRIER
VARIETY WITH BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCD AND GUSTY WINDS. ABQ WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE AN IMPACT EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE USING VCSH AT MOST
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 03Z TO 05Z. TS IMPACTS LESS LIKELY. THE
NEXT PACIFIC WAVE SHOULD IMPACT WESTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND
HAVE THIS INDICATED AT FMN/GUP. MORE PREVAILING CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FROM WEST TO EAST AS MONDAY PROGRESSES. LATE SHIFTS
CAN UPDATE IN TERMS OF TS IMPACTS/LOWER CIGS. THERE WAS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT LOW CIG/FG DEVELOPMENT WITHIN RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TONIGHT AND SOME IMPACTS TO SAF/ABQ. DECIDED TO OPT OUT OF THAT
POSSIBILITY IN TERMS OF GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE. WILL
WATCH TRENDS IN LATER MODEL GUIDANCE AND SURFACE MOISTURE FIELDS.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN OVERALL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
ALMOST THREE WEEKS. NONETHELESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
CROSS FROM THE WEST. AFTER LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY A
VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TILT EASTWARD OVER NEW
MEXICO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DRAWING PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN...A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE CENTRAL AND EAST INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTING
OVER THE WESTERN US UNTIL THE WEEKEND...WHEN A SUMMER-LIKE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD. INJECTION OF MOISTURE WITH
FRIDAYS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF MOISTURE
AND COOL AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY...SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTION ACTIVE OVER NM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECYCLES EACH DAY.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL CO EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT NEWD NEXT 24 HRS...HOWEVER NOT BEFORE ADDITIONAL
ENERGY IN IT/S WAKE TRACKS OVER NM MONDAY. DRYLINE HAS SEEPED WWD
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE SHUNTED EWD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST THIRD WILL HAVE DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH WETTING RAIN TODAY...WITH CHANCES DECREASING TONIGHT. THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CHANCES
AGAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FINAL WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. CONSEQUENTLY...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY
IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE LIMITED TO
MAINLY THE NORTHERN MTS AND NEAR THE EASTERN NM BORDER WITH TX. THE
DRYLINE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...COULD KICK OFF CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
EASTWARD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY
WILL KEEP RAINFALL CHANCES GOING CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THIS WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SATURDAY WHEN POOR VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL. SOME DRYING ALOFT CENTRAL AND WEST AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN HIGH HAINES FOR THOSE AREAS BUT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURE REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK.
THE HIGH HAINES AREAS COINCIDE WITH MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD
STAY BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA. THE EXTENDED PERIODS /JUN 2-3/ OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGRATING UP
THE BAJA CA COAST.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 250527 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1127 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AROUND CENTRAL NM WILL DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...THOUGH MTN OBSCURATIONS SHOULD CONTINUE. TRICKY INITIAL
FORECAST IN REGARDS FOR POSSIBLE MORNING CIG REDUCTIONS THANKS TO
RESIDUAL MOISTURE IN AREAS THAT RECENTLY RECEIVED RAIN. THESE PUTS
FOCUS ON THE AREA FROM KGUP EAST TO KABQ...SOUTH TO KONM AND THE
REST OF THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT
KGUP WITH MVFR AND POSSIBLE IFR CIGS. PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF KABQ BUT NO IMPACTS EXPECTED AT TERMINAL. ANOTHER UPPER
LEVEL WAVE WILL SET UP ISO TO SCT SHRAS MONDAY...STARTING ACROSS
THE W AND SPREADING E THRU THE DAY. PUT LIGHT SHRA FOR HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE TERMINAL IMPACTS AND VCSH AS PLACE HOLDER FOR AREAS
WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY DURING THE
DAY WITH AFTN GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...549 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED TO SCT SH/TS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN/CENTRAL NM
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL/NE AREAS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS THE DRIER
VARIETY WITH BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCD AND GUSTY WINDS. ABQ WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE AN IMPACT EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE USING VCSH AT MOST
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 03Z TO 05Z. TS IMPACTS LESS LIKELY. THE
NEXT PACIFIC WAVE SHOULD IMPACT WESTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND
HAVE THIS INDICATED AT FMN/GUP. MORE PREVAILING CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FROM WEST TO EAST AS MONDAY PROGRESSES. LATE SHIFTS
CAN UPDATE IN TERMS OF TS IMPACTS/LOWER CIGS. THERE WAS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT LOW CIG/FG DEVELOPMENT WITHIN RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TONIGHT AND SOME IMPACTS TO SAF/ABQ. DECIDED TO OPT OUT OF THAT
POSSIBILITY IN TERMS OF GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE. WILL
WATCH TRENDS IN LATER MODEL GUIDANCE AND SURFACE MOISTURE FIELDS.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN OVERALL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
ALMOST THREE WEEKS. NONETHELESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
CROSS FROM THE WEST. AFTER LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY A
VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TILT EASTWARD OVER NEW
MEXICO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DRAWING PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN...A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE CENTRAL AND EAST INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTING
OVER THE WESTERN US UNTIL THE WEEKEND...WHEN A SUMMER-LIKE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD. INJECTION OF MOISTURE WITH
FRIDAYS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF MOISTURE
AND COOL AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY...SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTION ACTIVE OVER NM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECYCLES EACH DAY.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL CO EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT NEWD NEXT 24 HRS...HOWEVER NOT BEFORE ADDITIONAL
ENERGY IN IT/S WAKE TRACKS OVER NM MONDAY. DRYLINE HAS SEEPED WWD
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE SHUNTED EWD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST THIRD WILL HAVE DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH WETTING RAIN TODAY...WITH CHANCES DECREASING TONIGHT. THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CHANCES
AGAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FINAL WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. CONSEQUENTLY...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY
IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE LIMITED TO
MAINLY THE NORTHERN MTS AND NEAR THE EASTERN NM BORDER WITH TX. THE
DRYLINE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...COULD KICK OFF CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
EASTWARD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY
WILL KEEP RAINFALL CHANCES GOING CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THIS WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SATURDAY WHEN POOR VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL. SOME DRYING ALOFT CENTRAL AND WEST AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN HIGH HAINES FOR THOSE AREAS BUT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURE REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK.
THE HIGH HAINES AREAS COINCIDE WITH MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD
STAY BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA. THE EXTENDED PERIODS /JUN 2-3/ OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGRATING UP
THE BAJA CA COAST.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 242349
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED TO SCT SH/TS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN/CENTRAL NM
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL/NE AREAS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS THE DRIER
VARIETY WITH BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCD AND GUSTY WINDS. ABQ WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE AN IMPACT EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE USING VCSH AT MOST
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 03Z TO 05Z. TS IMPACTS LESS LIKELY. THE
NEXT PACIFIC WAVE SHOULD IMPACT WESTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND
HAVE THIS INDICATED AT FMN/GUP. MORE PREVAILING CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FROM WEST TO EAST AS MONDAY PROGRESSES. LATE SHIFTS
CAN UPDATE IN TERMS OF TS IMPACTS/LOWER CIGS. THERE WAS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT LOW CIG/FG DEVELOPMENT WITHIN RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TONIGHT AND SOME IMPACTS TO SAF/ABQ. DECIDED TO OPT OUT OF THAT
POSSIBILITY IN TERMS OF GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE. WILL
WATCH TRENDS IN LATER MODEL GUIDANCE AND SURFACE MOISTURE FIELDS.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN OVERALL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
ALMOST THREE WEEKS. NONETHELESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
CROSS FROM THE WEST. AFTER LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY A
VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TILT EASTWARD OVER NEW
MEXICO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DRAWING PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN...A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE CENTRAL AND EAST INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTING
OVER THE WESTERN US UNTIL THE WEEKEND...WHEN A SUMMER-LIKE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD. INJECTION OF MOISTURE WITH
FRIDAYS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF MOISTURE
AND COOL AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY...SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTION ACTIVE OVER NM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECYCLES EACH DAY.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL CO EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT NEWD NEXT 24 HRS...HOWEVER NOT BEFORE ADDITIONAL
ENERGY IN IT/S WAKE TRACKS OVER NM MONDAY. DRYLINE HAS SEEPED WWD
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE SHUNTED EWD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST THIRD WILL HAVE DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH WETTING RAIN TODAY...WITH CHANCES DECREASING TONIGHT. THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CHANCES
AGAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FINAL WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. CONSEQUENTLY...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY
IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE LIMITED TO
MAINLY THE NORTHERN MTS AND NEAR THE EASTERN NM BORDER WITH TX. THE
DRYLINE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...COULD KICK OFF CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
EASTWARD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY
WILL KEEP RAINFALL CHANCES GOING CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THIS WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SATURDAY WHEN POOR VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL. SOME DRYING ALOFT CENTRAL AND WEST AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN HIGH HAINES FOR THOSE AREAS BUT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURE REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK.
THE HIGH HAINES AREAS COINCIDE WITH MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD
STAY BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA. THE EXTENDED PERIODS /JUN 2-3/ OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGRATING UP
THE BAJA CA COAST.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 242349
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED TO SCT SH/TS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN/CENTRAL NM
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL/NE AREAS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS THE DRIER
VARIETY WITH BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCD AND GUSTY WINDS. ABQ WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE AN IMPACT EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE USING VCSH AT MOST
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 03Z TO 05Z. TS IMPACTS LESS LIKELY. THE
NEXT PACIFIC WAVE SHOULD IMPACT WESTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND
HAVE THIS INDICATED AT FMN/GUP. MORE PREVAILING CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FROM WEST TO EAST AS MONDAY PROGRESSES. LATE SHIFTS
CAN UPDATE IN TERMS OF TS IMPACTS/LOWER CIGS. THERE WAS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT LOW CIG/FG DEVELOPMENT WITHIN RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TONIGHT AND SOME IMPACTS TO SAF/ABQ. DECIDED TO OPT OUT OF THAT
POSSIBILITY IN TERMS OF GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE. WILL
WATCH TRENDS IN LATER MODEL GUIDANCE AND SURFACE MOISTURE FIELDS.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN OVERALL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
ALMOST THREE WEEKS. NONETHELESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
CROSS FROM THE WEST. AFTER LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY A
VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TILT EASTWARD OVER NEW
MEXICO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DRAWING PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN...A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE CENTRAL AND EAST INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTING
OVER THE WESTERN US UNTIL THE WEEKEND...WHEN A SUMMER-LIKE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD. INJECTION OF MOISTURE WITH
FRIDAYS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF MOISTURE
AND COOL AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY...SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTION ACTIVE OVER NM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECYCLES EACH DAY.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL CO EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT NEWD NEXT 24 HRS...HOWEVER NOT BEFORE ADDITIONAL
ENERGY IN IT/S WAKE TRACKS OVER NM MONDAY. DRYLINE HAS SEEPED WWD
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE SHUNTED EWD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST THIRD WILL HAVE DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH WETTING RAIN TODAY...WITH CHANCES DECREASING TONIGHT. THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CHANCES
AGAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FINAL WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. CONSEQUENTLY...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY
IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE LIMITED TO
MAINLY THE NORTHERN MTS AND NEAR THE EASTERN NM BORDER WITH TX. THE
DRYLINE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...COULD KICK OFF CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
EASTWARD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY
WILL KEEP RAINFALL CHANCES GOING CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THIS WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SATURDAY WHEN POOR VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL. SOME DRYING ALOFT CENTRAL AND WEST AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN HIGH HAINES FOR THOSE AREAS BUT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURE REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK.
THE HIGH HAINES AREAS COINCIDE WITH MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD
STAY BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA. THE EXTENDED PERIODS /JUN 2-3/ OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGRATING UP
THE BAJA CA COAST.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 242349 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED TO SCT SH/TS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN/CENTRAL NM
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL/NE AREAS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS THE DRIER
VARIETY WITH BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCD AND GUSTY WINDS. ABQ WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE AN IMPACT EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE USING VCSH AT MOST
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 03Z TO 05Z. TS IMPACTS LESS LIKELY. THE
NEXT PACIFIC WAVE SHOULD IMPACT WESTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND
HAVE THIS INDICATED AT FMN/GUP. MORE PREVAILING CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FROM WEST TO EAST AS MONDAY PROGRESSES. LATE SHIFTS
CAN UPDATE IN TERMS OF TS IMPACTS/LOWER CIGS. THERE WAS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT LOW CIG/FG DEVELOPMENT WITHIN RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TONIGHT AND SOME IMPACTS TO SAF/ABQ. DECIDED TO OPT OUT OF THAT
POSSIBILITY IN TERMS OF GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE. WILL
WATCH TRENDS IN LATER MODEL GUIDANCE AND SURFACE MOISTURE FIELDS.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN OVERALL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
ALMOST THREE WEEKS. NONETHELESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
CROSS FROM THE WEST. AFTER LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY A
VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TILT EASTWARD OVER NEW
MEXICO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DRAWING PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN...A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE CENTRAL AND EAST INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTING
OVER THE WESTERN US UNTIL THE WEEKEND...WHEN A SUMMER-LIKE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD. INJECTION OF MOISTURE WITH
FRIDAYS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF MOISTURE
AND COOL AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY...SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTION ACTIVE OVER NM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECYCLES EACH DAY.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL CO EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT NEWD NEXT 24 HRS...HOWEVER NOT BEFORE ADDITIONAL
ENERGY IN IT/S WAKE TRACKS OVER NM MONDAY. DRYLINE HAS SEEPED WWD
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE SHUNTED EWD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST THIRD WILL HAVE DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH WETTING RAIN TODAY...WITH CHANCES DECREASING TONIGHT. THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CHANCES
AGAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FINAL WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. CONSEQUENTLY...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY
IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE LIMITED TO
MAINLY THE NORTHERN MTS AND NEAR THE EASTERN NM BORDER WITH TX. THE
DRYLINE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...COULD KICK OFF CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
EASTWARD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY
WILL KEEP RAINFALL CHANCES GOING CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THIS WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SATURDAY WHEN POOR VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL. SOME DRYING ALOFT CENTRAL AND WEST AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN HIGH HAINES FOR THOSE AREAS BUT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURE REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK.
THE HIGH HAINES AREAS COINCIDE WITH MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD
STAY BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA. THE EXTENDED PERIODS /JUN 2-3/ OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGRATING UP
THE BAJA CA COAST.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 242349 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED TO SCT SH/TS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN/CENTRAL NM
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL/NE AREAS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS THE DRIER
VARIETY WITH BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCD AND GUSTY WINDS. ABQ WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE AN IMPACT EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE USING VCSH AT MOST
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 03Z TO 05Z. TS IMPACTS LESS LIKELY. THE
NEXT PACIFIC WAVE SHOULD IMPACT WESTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND
HAVE THIS INDICATED AT FMN/GUP. MORE PREVAILING CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FROM WEST TO EAST AS MONDAY PROGRESSES. LATE SHIFTS
CAN UPDATE IN TERMS OF TS IMPACTS/LOWER CIGS. THERE WAS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT LOW CIG/FG DEVELOPMENT WITHIN RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TONIGHT AND SOME IMPACTS TO SAF/ABQ. DECIDED TO OPT OUT OF THAT
POSSIBILITY IN TERMS OF GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE. WILL
WATCH TRENDS IN LATER MODEL GUIDANCE AND SURFACE MOISTURE FIELDS.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN OVERALL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
ALMOST THREE WEEKS. NONETHELESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
CROSS FROM THE WEST. AFTER LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY A
VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TILT EASTWARD OVER NEW
MEXICO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DRAWING PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN...A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE CENTRAL AND EAST INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTING
OVER THE WESTERN US UNTIL THE WEEKEND...WHEN A SUMMER-LIKE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD. INJECTION OF MOISTURE WITH
FRIDAYS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF MOISTURE
AND COOL AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY...SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTION ACTIVE OVER NM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECYCLES EACH DAY.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL CO EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT NEWD NEXT 24 HRS...HOWEVER NOT BEFORE ADDITIONAL
ENERGY IN IT/S WAKE TRACKS OVER NM MONDAY. DRYLINE HAS SEEPED WWD
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE SHUNTED EWD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST THIRD WILL HAVE DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH WETTING RAIN TODAY...WITH CHANCES DECREASING TONIGHT. THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CHANCES
AGAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FINAL WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. CONSEQUENTLY...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY
IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE LIMITED TO
MAINLY THE NORTHERN MTS AND NEAR THE EASTERN NM BORDER WITH TX. THE
DRYLINE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...COULD KICK OFF CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
EASTWARD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY
WILL KEEP RAINFALL CHANCES GOING CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THIS WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SATURDAY WHEN POOR VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL. SOME DRYING ALOFT CENTRAL AND WEST AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN HIGH HAINES FOR THOSE AREAS BUT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURE REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK.
THE HIGH HAINES AREAS COINCIDE WITH MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD
STAY BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA. THE EXTENDED PERIODS /JUN 2-3/ OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGRATING UP
THE BAJA CA COAST.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 242349 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED TO SCT SH/TS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN/CENTRAL NM
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL/NE AREAS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS THE DRIER
VARIETY WITH BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCD AND GUSTY WINDS. ABQ WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE AN IMPACT EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE USING VCSH AT MOST
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 03Z TO 05Z. TS IMPACTS LESS LIKELY. THE
NEXT PACIFIC WAVE SHOULD IMPACT WESTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND
HAVE THIS INDICATED AT FMN/GUP. MORE PREVAILING CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FROM WEST TO EAST AS MONDAY PROGRESSES. LATE SHIFTS
CAN UPDATE IN TERMS OF TS IMPACTS/LOWER CIGS. THERE WAS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT LOW CIG/FG DEVELOPMENT WITHIN RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TONIGHT AND SOME IMPACTS TO SAF/ABQ. DECIDED TO OPT OUT OF THAT
POSSIBILITY IN TERMS OF GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE. WILL
WATCH TRENDS IN LATER MODEL GUIDANCE AND SURFACE MOISTURE FIELDS.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN OVERALL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
ALMOST THREE WEEKS. NONETHELESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
CROSS FROM THE WEST. AFTER LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY A
VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TILT EASTWARD OVER NEW
MEXICO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DRAWING PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN...A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE CENTRAL AND EAST INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTING
OVER THE WESTERN US UNTIL THE WEEKEND...WHEN A SUMMER-LIKE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD. INJECTION OF MOISTURE WITH
FRIDAYS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF MOISTURE
AND COOL AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY...SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTION ACTIVE OVER NM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECYCLES EACH DAY.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL CO EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT NEWD NEXT 24 HRS...HOWEVER NOT BEFORE ADDITIONAL
ENERGY IN IT/S WAKE TRACKS OVER NM MONDAY. DRYLINE HAS SEEPED WWD
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE SHUNTED EWD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST THIRD WILL HAVE DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH WETTING RAIN TODAY...WITH CHANCES DECREASING TONIGHT. THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CHANCES
AGAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FINAL WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. CONSEQUENTLY...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY
IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE LIMITED TO
MAINLY THE NORTHERN MTS AND NEAR THE EASTERN NM BORDER WITH TX. THE
DRYLINE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...COULD KICK OFF CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
EASTWARD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY
WILL KEEP RAINFALL CHANCES GOING CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THIS WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SATURDAY WHEN POOR VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL. SOME DRYING ALOFT CENTRAL AND WEST AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN HIGH HAINES FOR THOSE AREAS BUT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURE REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK.
THE HIGH HAINES AREAS COINCIDE WITH MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD
STAY BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA. THE EXTENDED PERIODS /JUN 2-3/ OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGRATING UP
THE BAJA CA COAST.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 242349 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED TO SCT SH/TS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN/CENTRAL NM
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL/NE AREAS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS THE DRIER
VARIETY WITH BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCD AND GUSTY WINDS. ABQ WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE AN IMPACT EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE USING VCSH AT MOST
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 03Z TO 05Z. TS IMPACTS LESS LIKELY. THE
NEXT PACIFIC WAVE SHOULD IMPACT WESTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND
HAVE THIS INDICATED AT FMN/GUP. MORE PREVAILING CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FROM WEST TO EAST AS MONDAY PROGRESSES. LATE SHIFTS
CAN UPDATE IN TERMS OF TS IMPACTS/LOWER CIGS. THERE WAS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT LOW CIG/FG DEVELOPMENT WITHIN RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TONIGHT AND SOME IMPACTS TO SAF/ABQ. DECIDED TO OPT OUT OF THAT
POSSIBILITY IN TERMS OF GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE. WILL
WATCH TRENDS IN LATER MODEL GUIDANCE AND SURFACE MOISTURE FIELDS.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN OVERALL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
ALMOST THREE WEEKS. NONETHELESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
CROSS FROM THE WEST. AFTER LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY A
VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TILT EASTWARD OVER NEW
MEXICO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DRAWING PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN...A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE CENTRAL AND EAST INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTING
OVER THE WESTERN US UNTIL THE WEEKEND...WHEN A SUMMER-LIKE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD. INJECTION OF MOISTURE WITH
FRIDAYS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF MOISTURE
AND COOL AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY...SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTION ACTIVE OVER NM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECYCLES EACH DAY.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL CO EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT NEWD NEXT 24 HRS...HOWEVER NOT BEFORE ADDITIONAL
ENERGY IN IT/S WAKE TRACKS OVER NM MONDAY. DRYLINE HAS SEEPED WWD
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE SHUNTED EWD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST THIRD WILL HAVE DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH WETTING RAIN TODAY...WITH CHANCES DECREASING TONIGHT. THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CHANCES
AGAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FINAL WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. CONSEQUENTLY...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY
IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE LIMITED TO
MAINLY THE NORTHERN MTS AND NEAR THE EASTERN NM BORDER WITH TX. THE
DRYLINE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...COULD KICK OFF CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
EASTWARD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY
WILL KEEP RAINFALL CHANCES GOING CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THIS WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SATURDAY WHEN POOR VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL. SOME DRYING ALOFT CENTRAL AND WEST AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN HIGH HAINES FOR THOSE AREAS BUT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURE REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK.
THE HIGH HAINES AREAS COINCIDE WITH MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD
STAY BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA. THE EXTENDED PERIODS /JUN 2-3/ OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGRATING UP
THE BAJA CA COAST.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 242349 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED TO SCT SH/TS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN/CENTRAL NM
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL/NE AREAS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS THE DRIER
VARIETY WITH BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCD AND GUSTY WINDS. ABQ WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE AN IMPACT EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE USING VCSH AT MOST
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 03Z TO 05Z. TS IMPACTS LESS LIKELY. THE
NEXT PACIFIC WAVE SHOULD IMPACT WESTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND
HAVE THIS INDICATED AT FMN/GUP. MORE PREVAILING CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FROM WEST TO EAST AS MONDAY PROGRESSES. LATE SHIFTS
CAN UPDATE IN TERMS OF TS IMPACTS/LOWER CIGS. THERE WAS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT LOW CIG/FG DEVELOPMENT WITHIN RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TONIGHT AND SOME IMPACTS TO SAF/ABQ. DECIDED TO OPT OUT OF THAT
POSSIBILITY IN TERMS OF GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE. WILL
WATCH TRENDS IN LATER MODEL GUIDANCE AND SURFACE MOISTURE FIELDS.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN OVERALL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
ALMOST THREE WEEKS. NONETHELESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
CROSS FROM THE WEST. AFTER LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY A
VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TILT EASTWARD OVER NEW
MEXICO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DRAWING PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN...A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE CENTRAL AND EAST INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTING
OVER THE WESTERN US UNTIL THE WEEKEND...WHEN A SUMMER-LIKE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD. INJECTION OF MOISTURE WITH
FRIDAYS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF MOISTURE
AND COOL AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY...SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTION ACTIVE OVER NM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECYCLES EACH DAY.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL CO EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT NEWD NEXT 24 HRS...HOWEVER NOT BEFORE ADDITIONAL
ENERGY IN IT/S WAKE TRACKS OVER NM MONDAY. DRYLINE HAS SEEPED WWD
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE SHUNTED EWD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST THIRD WILL HAVE DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH WETTING RAIN TODAY...WITH CHANCES DECREASING TONIGHT. THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CHANCES
AGAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FINAL WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. CONSEQUENTLY...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY
IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE LIMITED TO
MAINLY THE NORTHERN MTS AND NEAR THE EASTERN NM BORDER WITH TX. THE
DRYLINE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...COULD KICK OFF CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
EASTWARD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY
WILL KEEP RAINFALL CHANCES GOING CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THIS WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SATURDAY WHEN POOR VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL. SOME DRYING ALOFT CENTRAL AND WEST AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN HIGH HAINES FOR THOSE AREAS BUT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURE REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK.
THE HIGH HAINES AREAS COINCIDE WITH MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD
STAY BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA. THE EXTENDED PERIODS /JUN 2-3/ OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGRATING UP
THE BAJA CA COAST.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 242349 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
549 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED TO SCT SH/TS WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT NORTHERN/CENTRAL NM
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT APPEARS THAT THE MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL/NE AREAS. MOST OF THE ACTIVITY IS THE DRIER
VARIETY WITH BRIEF MTN TOP OBSCD AND GUSTY WINDS. ABQ WILL MOST
LIKELY SEE AN IMPACT EARLY EVENING. OTHERWISE USING VCSH AT MOST
TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 03Z TO 05Z. TS IMPACTS LESS LIKELY. THE
NEXT PACIFIC WAVE SHOULD IMPACT WESTERN AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND
HAVE THIS INDICATED AT FMN/GUP. MORE PREVAILING CONDITIONS
ANTICIPATED FROM WEST TO EAST AS MONDAY PROGRESSES. LATE SHIFTS
CAN UPDATE IN TERMS OF TS IMPACTS/LOWER CIGS. THERE WAS SOME
QUESTION ABOUT LOW CIG/FG DEVELOPMENT WITHIN RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TONIGHT AND SOME IMPACTS TO SAF/ABQ. DECIDED TO OPT OUT OF THAT
POSSIBILITY IN TERMS OF GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT CONFIDENCE. WILL
WATCH TRENDS IN LATER MODEL GUIDANCE AND SURFACE MOISTURE FIELDS.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN OVERALL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
ALMOST THREE WEEKS. NONETHELESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
CROSS FROM THE WEST. AFTER LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY A
VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TILT EASTWARD OVER NEW
MEXICO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DRAWING PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN...A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE CENTRAL AND EAST INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTING
OVER THE WESTERN US UNTIL THE WEEKEND...WHEN A SUMMER-LIKE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD. INJECTION OF MOISTURE WITH
FRIDAYS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF MOISTURE
AND COOL AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY...SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTION ACTIVE OVER NM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECYCLES EACH DAY.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL CO EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT NEWD NEXT 24 HRS...HOWEVER NOT BEFORE ADDITIONAL
ENERGY IN IT/S WAKE TRACKS OVER NM MONDAY. DRYLINE HAS SEEPED WWD
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE SHUNTED EWD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST THIRD WILL HAVE DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH WETTING RAIN TODAY...WITH CHANCES DECREASING TONIGHT. THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CHANCES
AGAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FINAL WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. CONSEQUENTLY...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY
IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE LIMITED TO
MAINLY THE NORTHERN MTS AND NEAR THE EASTERN NM BORDER WITH TX. THE
DRYLINE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...COULD KICK OFF CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
EASTWARD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY
WILL KEEP RAINFALL CHANCES GOING CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THIS WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SATURDAY WHEN POOR VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL. SOME DRYING ALOFT CENTRAL AND WEST AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN HIGH HAINES FOR THOSE AREAS BUT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURE REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK.
THE HIGH HAINES AREAS COINCIDE WITH MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD
STAY BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA. THE EXTENDED PERIODS /JUN 2-3/ OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGRATING UP
THE BAJA CA COAST.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 242123
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
323 PM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN OVERALL WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHEN HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY REACH NEAR NORMAL FOR THE FIRST TIME IN
ALMOST THREE WEEKS. NONETHELESS...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST AS A COUPLE OF WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS
CROSS FROM THE WEST. AFTER LESS THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WEDNESDAY A
VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TILT EASTWARD OVER NEW
MEXICO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK DRAWING PLENTY OF GULF
MOISTURE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS THURSDAY
AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THEN...A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL
ARRIVE FRIDAY KEEPING THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVE CENTRAL AND EAST INTO
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE LONG WAVE TROUGH PERSISTING
OVER THE WESTERN US UNTIL THE WEEKEND...WHEN A SUMMER-LIKE RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL ATTEMPT TO BUILD. INJECTION OF MOISTURE WITH
FRIDAYS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...AND A REINFORCING SHOT OF MOISTURE
AND COOL AIR FROM THE NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY...SHOULD KEEP
CONVECTION ACTIVE OVER NM THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE RECYCLES EACH DAY.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL CO EARLY THIS
MORNING WILL LIFT NEWD NEXT 24 HRS...HOWEVER NOT BEFORE ADDITIONAL
ENERGY IN IT/S WAKE TRACKS OVER NM MONDAY. DRYLINE HAS SEEPED WWD
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE SHUNTED EWD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST THIRD WILL HAVE DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH WETTING RAIN TODAY...WITH CHANCES DECREASING TONIGHT. THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CHANCES
AGAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FINAL WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. CONSEQUENTLY...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY
IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE LIMITED TO
MAINLY THE NORTHERN MTS AND NEAR THE EASTERN NM BORDER WITH TX. THE
DRYLINE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...COULD KICK OFF CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
EASTWARD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY
WILL KEEP RAINFALL CHANCES GOING CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THIS WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SATURDAY WHEN POOR VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL. SOME DRYING ALOFT CENTRAL AND WEST AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN HIGH HAINES FOR THOSE AREAS BUT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURE REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK.
THE HIGH HAINES AREAS COINCIDE WITH MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD
STAY BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA. THE EXTENDED PERIODS /JUN 2-3/ OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGRATING UP
THE BAJA CA COAST.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NRN COLORADO LATE THIS
MORNING. SHORT- WAVE TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS FEATURE
WILL SWING THROUGH NRN NM THIS AFTERNOON. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA EXPECTED
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. HIGHER TERRAIN
OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. EXPECT WEST AND SOUTHWEST SFC WIND GUSTS TO
35KT EAST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW
MOVES LITTLE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
AFTER 25/03Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  43  69  44  75 /  10  30  20   5
DULCE...........................  35  64  35  70 /  30  50  40  20
CUBA............................  37  64  38  71 /  40  50  50  20
GALLUP..........................  39  66  39  73 /  40  40  30  10
EL MORRO........................  39  62  39  70 /  50  40  50  10
GRANTS..........................  38  66  38  73 /  30  30  30  10
QUEMADO.........................  41  66  41  73 /  60  30  40  20
GLENWOOD........................  42  75  43  80 /  20  20  20   0
CHAMA...........................  31  60  32  66 /  30  50  40  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  42  63  42  70 /  30  60  50  50
PECOS...........................  40  63  41  70 /  20  30  20  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  34  63  35  69 /  20  60  50  30
RED RIVER.......................  31  55  34  61 /  20  60  60  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  34  59  36  65 /  20  30  40  40
TAOS............................  36  63  36  68 /  20  30  40  20
MORA............................  39  63  40  68 /  20  30  40  20
ESPANOLA........................  42  68  44  74 /  30  40  40  30
SANTA FE........................  42  64  44  71 /  20  40  30  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  42  67  43  74 /  20  30  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  48  70  49  76 /  30  30  30   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  48  71  49  78 /  30  20  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  48  72  49  79 /  30  20  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  47  72  47  78 /  30  30  30  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  47  73  48  80 /  30  20  20   5
RIO RANCHO......................  46  71  47  77 /  30  30  30  10
SOCORRO.........................  49  75  50  81 /  40  30  20   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  44  66  45  73 /  30  30  40   5
TIJERAS.........................  44  70  47  76 /  40  30  30   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  41  66  42  72 /  30  20  20   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  42  66  43  72 /  20  20  20   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  45  68  46  74 /  20  10  20   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  48  72  49  78 /  10   5  20   5
RUIDOSO.........................  45  68  47  74 /  10  10  20  10
CAPULIN.........................  42  65  44  69 /  10  30  40  20
RATON...........................  40  70  41  73 /  20  30  30  30
SPRINGER........................  41  71  43  74 /  10  20  30  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  41  66  41  71 /  10  20  30  10
CLAYTON.........................  47  72  48  76 /  10  20  20  20
ROY.............................  45  70  46  73 /  10  10  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  50  77  51  80 /   5   5  20   5
SANTA ROSA......................  49  77  50  80 /   5   5  20   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  51  79  52  82 /   0   5  10   5
CLOVIS..........................  50  77  52  81 /   0   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  51  79  54  83 /   0   5   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  50  79  53  83 /   0   5   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  51  83  54  88 /   0   0  10   5
PICACHO.........................  48  77  51  83 /   5   5  20   5
ELK.............................  48  73  51  79 /   5   5  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44



000
FXUS65 KABQ 241752
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1152 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NRN COLORADO LATE THIS
MORNING. SHORT- WAVE TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS FEATURE
WILL SWING THROUGH NRN NM THIS AFTERNOON. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA EXPECTED
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. HIGHER TERRAIN
OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. EXPECT WEST AND SOUTHWEST SFC WIND GUSTS TO
35KT EAST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW
MOVES LITTLE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
AFTER 25/03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...339 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER
COLORADO TODAY WITH A PAIR OF ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES ALOFT
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL SPREAD SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN
PARTS OF NEW MEXICO WITH ACTIVITY FAVORING THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SHORT OF
LATE MAY AVERAGES BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES. INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE STATE. THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WILL AGAIN REMAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNABLE TO RISE MUCH OVER TODAY`S READINGS. BY
TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORM COVERAGE WHILE ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES. ANOTHER WET PERIOD WILL
THEN SHAPE UP FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE RETURNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LOW IS CHURNING INTO COLORADO WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ROUNDING SE UT AND POISED TO ENTER NM TODAY. A MORE DISTINCT
FEATURE...A CLOSED SECONDARY LOW IN CA WILL ALSO MOVE IN PHASE
WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
NM BY TONIGHT. DECENT INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4
C WILL OVERLAY A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH STEEPEST
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES EXPECTED NEAR THE CO/NM BORDER. THIS ALONG
WITH SOME MEAGER REMNANT MOISTURE AND ATTENDANT DYNAMICS WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD YIELD A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A GLANCE AT SOME FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWS SOME INVERTED-V CHARACTERISTICS TO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP/DEWPOINT PROFILES...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE WEAKER SHOWERS PRODUCING LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. HAVE KEPT ELEVATED POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND THEN SUSPECT SOME...BUT NOT
FULL...STABILIZATION AND DECOUPLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE THEREAFTER AS DYNAMICS ALOFT EXIT WITH
DEPARTING UPPER FEATURES.

MONDAY IS A NEW DAY...BUT ULTIMATELY THE FORECAST MIMICS THAT
BROKEN RECORD PLAYER WITH THE SAME OLD SONG AND DANCE...SHOWERS
AND STORMS REDEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND FAVORING THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE WHILE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PERSIST. THE CULPRIT FOR MONDAY`S PRECIPITATION WILL
BE YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHILE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LINGERS
ALONG WITH UNSTABLE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. SOME BREEZY
WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF
THIS MONDAY SHORT WAVE.

A QUASI BREAK IN THE ACTION IS SCRIPTED FOR TUESDAY WITH RISING
PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND A SUBTLE RIDGING OVER NM. ENOUGH REMNANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO SPARK A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE DAYTIME HEATING WILL INDUCE WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT LOCALIZED
UPSLOPE FLOW TO AID DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESPOND
UPWARD DUE TO THE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES.

WEDNESDAY WOULD ALSO LIKELY BE A DAY WITH LESS OR MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OR PRECIPITATION...BUT THINGS WILL BE STAGING FOR WETTER
CHANGES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LONGER WAVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
BE KNOCKING ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY WHILE A ROBUST
SURGE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN OUTBREAK OF SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FROM THERE THE WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STAYS RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITHOUT ANY DISTINCT PERTURBATIONS...BUT MOISTURE INTRUSIONS
WILL STILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE EAST. A SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT INVASION FRIDAY NIGHT WOULD USHER IN MOISTURE AND RECHARGE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES NEXT WEEKEND.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL CO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT NEWD NEXT 24 HRS...HOWEVER NOT BEFORE ADDITIONAL ENERGY IN
IT/S WAKE TRACKS OVER NM MONDAY. DRYLINE HAS SEEPED WWD
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE SHUNTED EWD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST THIRD WILL HAVE DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH WETTING RAIN TODAY...WITH CHANCES DECREASING TONIGHT. THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CHANCES
AGAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FINAL WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. CONSEQUENTLY...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY
IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE LIMITED TO
MAINLY THE NORTHERN MTS AND NEAR THE EASTERN NM BORDER WITH TX. THE
DRYLINE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...COULD KICK OFF CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
EASTWARD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY
WILL KEEP RAINFALL CHANCES GOING CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THIS WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SATURDAY WHEN POOR VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL. SOME DRYING ALOFT CENTRAL AND WEST AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN HIGH HAINES FOR THOSE AREAS BUT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURE REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK.
THE HIGH HAINES AREAS COINCIDE WITH MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD
STAY BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA. THE EXTENDED PERIODS /JUN 2-3/ OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGRATING UP
THE BAJA CA COAST.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS65 KABQ 241752 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1152 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NRN COLORADO LATE THIS
MORNING. SHORT- WAVE TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS FEATURE
WILL SWING THROUGH NRN NM THIS AFTERNOON. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA EXPECTED
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. HIGHER TERRAIN
OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. EXPECT WEST AND SOUTHWEST SFC WIND GUSTS TO
35KT EAST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW
MOVES LITTLE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
AFTER 25/03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...339 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER
COLORADO TODAY WITH A PAIR OF ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES ALOFT
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL SPREAD SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN
PARTS OF NEW MEXICO WITH ACTIVITY FAVORING THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SHORT OF
LATE MAY AVERAGES BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES. INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE STATE. THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WILL AGAIN REMAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNABLE TO RISE MUCH OVER TODAY`S READINGS. BY
TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORM COVERAGE WHILE ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES. ANOTHER WET PERIOD WILL
THEN SHAPE UP FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE RETURNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LOW IS CHURNING INTO COLORADO WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ROUNDING SE UT AND POISED TO ENTER NM TODAY. A MORE DISTINCT
FEATURE...A CLOSED SECONDARY LOW IN CA WILL ALSO MOVE IN PHASE
WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
NM BY TONIGHT. DECENT INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4
C WILL OVERLAY A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH STEEPEST
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES EXPECTED NEAR THE CO/NM BORDER. THIS ALONG
WITH SOME MEAGER REMNANT MOISTURE AND ATTENDANT DYNAMICS WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD YIELD A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A GLANCE AT SOME FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWS SOME INVERTED-V CHARACTERISTICS TO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP/DEWPOINT PROFILES...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE WEAKER SHOWERS PRODUCING LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. HAVE KEPT ELEVATED POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND THEN SUSPECT SOME...BUT NOT
FULL...STABILIZATION AND DECOUPLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE THEREAFTER AS DYNAMICS ALOFT EXIT WITH
DEPARTING UPPER FEATURES.

MONDAY IS A NEW DAY...BUT ULTIMATELY THE FORECAST MIMICS THAT
BROKEN RECORD PLAYER WITH THE SAME OLD SONG AND DANCE...SHOWERS
AND STORMS REDEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND FAVORING THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE WHILE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PERSIST. THE CULPRIT FOR MONDAY`S PRECIPITATION WILL
BE YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHILE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LINGERS
ALONG WITH UNSTABLE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. SOME BREEZY
WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF
THIS MONDAY SHORT WAVE.

A QUASI BREAK IN THE ACTION IS SCRIPTED FOR TUESDAY WITH RISING
PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND A SUBTLE RIDGING OVER NM. ENOUGH REMNANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO SPARK A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE DAYTIME HEATING WILL INDUCE WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT LOCALIZED
UPSLOPE FLOW TO AID DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESPOND
UPWARD DUE TO THE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES.

WEDNESDAY WOULD ALSO LIKELY BE A DAY WITH LESS OR MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OR PRECIPITATION...BUT THINGS WILL BE STAGING FOR WETTER
CHANGES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LONGER WAVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
BE KNOCKING ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY WHILE A ROBUST
SURGE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN OUTBREAK OF SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FROM THERE THE WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STAYS RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITHOUT ANY DISTINCT PERTURBATIONS...BUT MOISTURE INTRUSIONS
WILL STILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE EAST. A SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT INVASION FRIDAY NIGHT WOULD USHER IN MOISTURE AND RECHARGE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES NEXT WEEKEND.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL CO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT NEWD NEXT 24 HRS...HOWEVER NOT BEFORE ADDITIONAL ENERGY IN
IT/S WAKE TRACKS OVER NM MONDAY. DRYLINE HAS SEEPED WWD
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE SHUNTED EWD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST THIRD WILL HAVE DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH WETTING RAIN TODAY...WITH CHANCES DECREASING TONIGHT. THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CHANCES
AGAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FINAL WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. CONSEQUENTLY...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY
IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE LIMITED TO
MAINLY THE NORTHERN MTS AND NEAR THE EASTERN NM BORDER WITH TX. THE
DRYLINE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...COULD KICK OFF CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
EASTWARD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY
WILL KEEP RAINFALL CHANCES GOING CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THIS WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SATURDAY WHEN POOR VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL. SOME DRYING ALOFT CENTRAL AND WEST AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN HIGH HAINES FOR THOSE AREAS BUT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURE REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK.
THE HIGH HAINES AREAS COINCIDE WITH MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD
STAY BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA. THE EXTENDED PERIODS /JUN 2-3/ OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGRATING UP
THE BAJA CA COAST.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44



000
FXUS65 KABQ 241752 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1152 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NRN COLORADO LATE THIS
MORNING. SHORT- WAVE TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS FEATURE
WILL SWING THROUGH NRN NM THIS AFTERNOON. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA EXPECTED
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. HIGHER TERRAIN
OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. EXPECT WEST AND SOUTHWEST SFC WIND GUSTS TO
35KT EAST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW
MOVES LITTLE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
AFTER 25/03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...339 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER
COLORADO TODAY WITH A PAIR OF ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES ALOFT
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL SPREAD SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN
PARTS OF NEW MEXICO WITH ACTIVITY FAVORING THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SHORT OF
LATE MAY AVERAGES BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES. INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE STATE. THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WILL AGAIN REMAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNABLE TO RISE MUCH OVER TODAY`S READINGS. BY
TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORM COVERAGE WHILE ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES. ANOTHER WET PERIOD WILL
THEN SHAPE UP FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE RETURNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LOW IS CHURNING INTO COLORADO WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ROUNDING SE UT AND POISED TO ENTER NM TODAY. A MORE DISTINCT
FEATURE...A CLOSED SECONDARY LOW IN CA WILL ALSO MOVE IN PHASE
WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
NM BY TONIGHT. DECENT INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4
C WILL OVERLAY A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH STEEPEST
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES EXPECTED NEAR THE CO/NM BORDER. THIS ALONG
WITH SOME MEAGER REMNANT MOISTURE AND ATTENDANT DYNAMICS WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD YIELD A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A GLANCE AT SOME FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWS SOME INVERTED-V CHARACTERISTICS TO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP/DEWPOINT PROFILES...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE WEAKER SHOWERS PRODUCING LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. HAVE KEPT ELEVATED POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND THEN SUSPECT SOME...BUT NOT
FULL...STABILIZATION AND DECOUPLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE THEREAFTER AS DYNAMICS ALOFT EXIT WITH
DEPARTING UPPER FEATURES.

MONDAY IS A NEW DAY...BUT ULTIMATELY THE FORECAST MIMICS THAT
BROKEN RECORD PLAYER WITH THE SAME OLD SONG AND DANCE...SHOWERS
AND STORMS REDEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND FAVORING THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE WHILE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PERSIST. THE CULPRIT FOR MONDAY`S PRECIPITATION WILL
BE YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHILE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LINGERS
ALONG WITH UNSTABLE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. SOME BREEZY
WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF
THIS MONDAY SHORT WAVE.

A QUASI BREAK IN THE ACTION IS SCRIPTED FOR TUESDAY WITH RISING
PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND A SUBTLE RIDGING OVER NM. ENOUGH REMNANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO SPARK A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE DAYTIME HEATING WILL INDUCE WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT LOCALIZED
UPSLOPE FLOW TO AID DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESPOND
UPWARD DUE TO THE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES.

WEDNESDAY WOULD ALSO LIKELY BE A DAY WITH LESS OR MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OR PRECIPITATION...BUT THINGS WILL BE STAGING FOR WETTER
CHANGES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LONGER WAVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
BE KNOCKING ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY WHILE A ROBUST
SURGE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN OUTBREAK OF SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FROM THERE THE WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STAYS RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITHOUT ANY DISTINCT PERTURBATIONS...BUT MOISTURE INTRUSIONS
WILL STILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE EAST. A SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT INVASION FRIDAY NIGHT WOULD USHER IN MOISTURE AND RECHARGE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES NEXT WEEKEND.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL CO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT NEWD NEXT 24 HRS...HOWEVER NOT BEFORE ADDITIONAL ENERGY IN
IT/S WAKE TRACKS OVER NM MONDAY. DRYLINE HAS SEEPED WWD
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE SHUNTED EWD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST THIRD WILL HAVE DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH WETTING RAIN TODAY...WITH CHANCES DECREASING TONIGHT. THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CHANCES
AGAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FINAL WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. CONSEQUENTLY...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY
IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE LIMITED TO
MAINLY THE NORTHERN MTS AND NEAR THE EASTERN NM BORDER WITH TX. THE
DRYLINE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...COULD KICK OFF CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
EASTWARD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY
WILL KEEP RAINFALL CHANCES GOING CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THIS WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SATURDAY WHEN POOR VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL. SOME DRYING ALOFT CENTRAL AND WEST AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN HIGH HAINES FOR THOSE AREAS BUT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURE REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK.
THE HIGH HAINES AREAS COINCIDE WITH MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD
STAY BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA. THE EXTENDED PERIODS /JUN 2-3/ OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGRATING UP
THE BAJA CA COAST.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44




000
FXUS65 KABQ 241752
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1152 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CENTERED OVER NRN COLORADO LATE THIS
MORNING. SHORT- WAVE TROUGH ON THE SOUTHERN END OF THIS FEATURE
WILL SWING THROUGH NRN NM THIS AFTERNOON. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA EXPECTED
MAINLY ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. HIGHER TERRAIN
OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED. EXPECT WEST AND SOUTHWEST SFC WIND GUSTS TO
35KT EAST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AS UPPER LOW
MOVES LITTLE. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS/STORMS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE
AFTER 25/03Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...339 AM MDT SUN MAY 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER
COLORADO TODAY WITH A PAIR OF ASSOCIATED DISTURBANCES ALOFT
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO. THIS WILL SPREAD SOME
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN
PARTS OF NEW MEXICO WITH ACTIVITY FAVORING THE NORTHWESTERN
HALF OF THE STATE. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FALL SHORT OF
LATE MAY AVERAGES BY 5 TO 15 DEGREES. INTO MONDAY...ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL WORK ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION AND
INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO...BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO PARTS OF THE STATE. THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WILL AGAIN REMAIN THE FAVORED AREA FOR PRECIPITATION...AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE UNABLE TO RISE MUCH OVER TODAY`S READINGS. BY
TUESDAY...A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORM COVERAGE WHILE ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES. ANOTHER WET PERIOD WILL
THEN SHAPE UP FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY WITH ABUNDANT GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE RETURNING.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

THE UPPER LOW IS CHURNING INTO COLORADO WITH A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
ROUNDING SE UT AND POISED TO ENTER NM TODAY. A MORE DISTINCT
FEATURE...A CLOSED SECONDARY LOW IN CA WILL ALSO MOVE IN PHASE
WITH THIS SHORT WAVE TROUGH...ROUNDING THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
NM BY TONIGHT. DECENT INSTABILITY WITH LIFTED INDICES OF -2 TO -4
C WILL OVERLAY A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH STEEPEST
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES EXPECTED NEAR THE CO/NM BORDER. THIS ALONG
WITH SOME MEAGER REMNANT MOISTURE AND ATTENDANT DYNAMICS WITH THE
SHORT WAVE TROUGH SHOULD YIELD A HIGHER COVERAGE OF SHOWERS/STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. A GLANCE AT SOME FORECAST
SOUNDINGS STILL SHOWS SOME INVERTED-V CHARACTERISTICS TO THE
BOUNDARY LAYER TEMP/DEWPOINT PROFILES...SO SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL
LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE WEAKER SHOWERS PRODUCING LIGHTER
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL REMAIN 5 TO 15
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL TODAY. HAVE KEPT ELEVATED POPS IN THE
FORECAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND THEN SUSPECT SOME...BUT NOT
FULL...STABILIZATION AND DECOUPLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIMIT
SHOWER/STORM COVERAGE THEREAFTER AS DYNAMICS ALOFT EXIT WITH
DEPARTING UPPER FEATURES.

MONDAY IS A NEW DAY...BUT ULTIMATELY THE FORECAST MIMICS THAT
BROKEN RECORD PLAYER WITH THE SAME OLD SONG AND DANCE...SHOWERS
AND STORMS REDEVELOPING INTO THE AFTERNOON AND FAVORING THE
NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE WHILE COOLER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES PERSIST. THE CULPRIT FOR MONDAY`S PRECIPITATION WILL
BE YET ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WHILE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE LINGERS
ALONG WITH UNSTABLE VERTICAL TEMPERATURE PROFILES. SOME BREEZY
WEST NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS WOULD ALSO ACCOMPANY THE PASSAGE OF
THIS MONDAY SHORT WAVE.

A QUASI BREAK IN THE ACTION IS SCRIPTED FOR TUESDAY WITH RISING
PRESSURE HEIGHTS AND A SUBTLE RIDGING OVER NM. ENOUGH REMNANT
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT TO SPARK A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHERE DAYTIME HEATING WILL INDUCE WEAK...BUT SUFFICIENT LOCALIZED
UPSLOPE FLOW TO AID DEVELOPMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO RESPOND
UPWARD DUE TO THE RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS/THICKNESS VALUES.

WEDNESDAY WOULD ALSO LIKELY BE A DAY WITH LESS OR MINIMAL CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY OR PRECIPITATION...BUT THINGS WILL BE STAGING FOR WETTER
CHANGES BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE LONGER WAVE PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
BE KNOCKING ON OUR WESTERN DOORSTEP BY WEDNESDAY WHILE A ROBUST
SURGE OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE BEGINS MAKING ITS WAY FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. THIS WILL LEAD TO AN OUTBREAK OF SCATTERED TO
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. FROM THERE THE WESTERLY FLOW
OVER THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN PLAINS STAYS RELATIVELY
LIGHT WITHOUT ANY DISTINCT PERTURBATIONS...BUT MOISTURE INTRUSIONS
WILL STILL BE ARRIVING FROM THE EAST. A SIGNIFICANT BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT INVASION FRIDAY NIGHT WOULD USHER IN MOISTURE AND RECHARGE
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN ZONES NEXT WEEKEND.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW LOCATED OVER WEST CENTRAL CO EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
LIFT NEWD NEXT 24 HRS...HOWEVER NOT BEFORE ADDITIONAL ENERGY IN
IT/S WAKE TRACKS OVER NM MONDAY. DRYLINE HAS SEEPED WWD
OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD BE SHUNTED EWD THIS AFTERNOON.

THE NORTHWEST THIRD WILL HAVE DECENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
WITH WETTING RAIN TODAY...WITH CHANCES DECREASING TONIGHT. THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN WILL HAVE SOME DECENT CHANCES
AGAIN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FINAL WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM. CONSEQUENTLY...WINDS MAY BE BREEZY MONDAY AFTERNOON
ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. TUESDAY LOOKS LIKE THE DRIEST DAY
IN TERMS OF AREAL COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WHICH WILL BE LIMITED TO
MAINLY THE NORTHERN MTS AND NEAR THE EASTERN NM BORDER WITH TX. THE
DRYLINE RETURNS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND COMBINED WITH AN APPROACHING
UPPER TROUGH...COULD KICK OFF CONVECTION FROM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
EASTWARD...WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. A STRONGER FRONT FRIDAY
WILL KEEP RAINFALL CHANCES GOING CENTRAL AND EAST THROUGH SATURDAY.

VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT THIS WEEK...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF SATURDAY WHEN POOR VALUES ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE
NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL. SOME DRYING ALOFT CENTRAL AND WEST AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL RESULT IN HIGH HAINES FOR THOSE AREAS BUT
OVERALL HIGH TEMPERATURE REMAIN NEAR TO BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE WEEK.
THE HIGH HAINES AREAS COINCIDE WITH MIN RH VALUES BELOW 15 PERCENT
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT AND SHOULD
STAY BELOW CRITICAL CRITERIA. THE EXTENDED PERIODS /JUN 2-3/ OF THE
EXTENDED MODELS /GFS AND ECMWF/ SHOW A TROPICAL SYSTEM MIGRATING UP
THE BAJA CA COAST.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44





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