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000
FXUS65 KABQ 130002 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
502 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE OF SOME
LOW CIGS...MVFR IF NOT LOCALLY IFR CATEGORY...OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 10Z AND ABOUT 18Z SAT
AND IN SAME GENERAL AREA WIND GUSTS TO 25 OR 30KT AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...311 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. TODAY. A WEAK FRONT NUDGED INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO EARLIER TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL MANAGED TO
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES PERSISTING. IN FACT...MANY AREAS WILL
APPROACH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BREEZES RELAXING SOME INTO SUNDAY. A FRONT
WILL ALSO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...SETTING
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN DEVELOP WEST OF NEW MEXICO TO START OUT THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...LEADING TO A CONTINUATION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER NM THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENTLY A STOUT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
SWOLLEN OVER THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST WITH IMPRESSIVE MID
TROPOSPHERIC PRESSURE HEIGHTS...VALUES THAT ARE ACTUALLY RIVALING
SUMMERTIME VALUES. THIS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS ACTED AS AN
EXTREME DESICCANT WITH HARDLY A CLOUD IN NM. LOOK FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...LIKELY A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING`S READINGS. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY IN
THE PLAINS OF FAR EASTERN NM. THIS WILL USHER IN SOME HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...LOW CLOUDS...AND POTENTIALLY SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR THE
WEST TX BORDER THROUGH LATE MORNING SATURDAY.

THE RIDGE ALOFT ABRUPTLY FLATTENS ON SATURDAY AND THE FLOW WILL
RESPOND BY SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PICK
UP SPEED TO ABOUT 30-35 KT AT 700 MB ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM...AND A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ALSO DEEPEN...ULTIMATELY DRIVING STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TO EASTERN ZONES. THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL NUDGE TEMPERATURES
UP AGAIN IN THE EAST. ALL LOCALES WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
EXCEED NORMAL MID FEBRUARY VALUES BY 10 TO 20 DEGREES...AND SEVERAL
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY SATURDAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER NM SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...AND HENCE SOME GUSTS WILL
LIKELY BE OBSERVED OVER RIDGE TOPS OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL INVADE NM ON SUNDAY...AND THIS DUAL-SEGMENTED BOUNDARY WILL
ACTUALLY BE ORIENTED IN SUCH A WAY THAT IT COULD OFFSET SOME OF
THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES.

INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ANOTHER
APPEARANCE...INDUCING A VERY DRY...SUBSIDENT...AND TRANQUIL
PATTERN. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM EACH DAY...RISING WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC TROUGH...AND
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF NM ON THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE VERY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
TROUGH...BUT AN INCREASE IN WIND APPEARS TO BE A MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS OF NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN AGAIN NEXT THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF THE EAST.
WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION RATES LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ON TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH VALUES WITH PERIODIC
BREEZINESS WILL BE THE THEME THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SNOWPACK IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM MELTING AND SUBLIMATION.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH MOVING OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
FLATTEN TO ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY. A WEAK NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT OVER
EASTERN NM TODAY WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ENOUGH BREEZES AND LOW RH VALUES WILL RESULT IN BORDERLINE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOCUS
LOOKS TO BE FROM CONCHAS EAST TO THE TX BORDER. BUT WITH ONLY A
MODERATE HAINES FORECAST AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF NO VERY HIGH OR
EXTREME FIRE DANGER WE WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING.

ZONAL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY BENEATH THE UPPER WAVE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND ON THE EAST SLOPES. ANOTHER NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL WORK INTO
THE PLAINS LATER SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN MONDAY.
TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE UP AND DOWN OVER THE EAST WITH THESE WIND
SHIFTS BUT OVERALL REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

VENT RATES WILL JUMP AROUND AS WELL. VENTILATION WILL TREND TO GOOD
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN DETERIORATE TO FAIR TO POOR AGAIN FOR MOST
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WORST DAY. VENT RATES
WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATER NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

BEFORE WE SEE ANY STORM SYSTEM THOUGH WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER NM THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
MEANS DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.

MODELS TRENDING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH...TO THE EXTENT
WE MAY RECEIVE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A SOUTHERLY TAP OF
MOISTURE MAY...JUST MAY...BRING MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION TO THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 130002 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
502 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE OF SOME
LOW CIGS...MVFR IF NOT LOCALLY IFR CATEGORY...OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 10Z AND ABOUT 18Z SAT
AND IN SAME GENERAL AREA WIND GUSTS TO 25 OR 30KT AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...311 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. TODAY. A WEAK FRONT NUDGED INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO EARLIER TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL MANAGED TO
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES PERSISTING. IN FACT...MANY AREAS WILL
APPROACH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BREEZES RELAXING SOME INTO SUNDAY. A FRONT
WILL ALSO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...SETTING
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN DEVELOP WEST OF NEW MEXICO TO START OUT THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...LEADING TO A CONTINUATION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER NM THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENTLY A STOUT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
SWOLLEN OVER THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST WITH IMPRESSIVE MID
TROPOSPHERIC PRESSURE HEIGHTS...VALUES THAT ARE ACTUALLY RIVALING
SUMMERTIME VALUES. THIS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS ACTED AS AN
EXTREME DESICCANT WITH HARDLY A CLOUD IN NM. LOOK FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...LIKELY A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING`S READINGS. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY IN
THE PLAINS OF FAR EASTERN NM. THIS WILL USHER IN SOME HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...LOW CLOUDS...AND POTENTIALLY SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR THE
WEST TX BORDER THROUGH LATE MORNING SATURDAY.

THE RIDGE ALOFT ABRUPTLY FLATTENS ON SATURDAY AND THE FLOW WILL
RESPOND BY SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PICK
UP SPEED TO ABOUT 30-35 KT AT 700 MB ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM...AND A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ALSO DEEPEN...ULTIMATELY DRIVING STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TO EASTERN ZONES. THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL NUDGE TEMPERATURES
UP AGAIN IN THE EAST. ALL LOCALES WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
EXCEED NORMAL MID FEBRUARY VALUES BY 10 TO 20 DEGREES...AND SEVERAL
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY SATURDAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER NM SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...AND HENCE SOME GUSTS WILL
LIKELY BE OBSERVED OVER RIDGE TOPS OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL INVADE NM ON SUNDAY...AND THIS DUAL-SEGMENTED BOUNDARY WILL
ACTUALLY BE ORIENTED IN SUCH A WAY THAT IT COULD OFFSET SOME OF
THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES.

INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ANOTHER
APPEARANCE...INDUCING A VERY DRY...SUBSIDENT...AND TRANQUIL
PATTERN. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM EACH DAY...RISING WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC TROUGH...AND
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF NM ON THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE VERY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
TROUGH...BUT AN INCREASE IN WIND APPEARS TO BE A MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS OF NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN AGAIN NEXT THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF THE EAST.
WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION RATES LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ON TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH VALUES WITH PERIODIC
BREEZINESS WILL BE THE THEME THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SNOWPACK IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM MELTING AND SUBLIMATION.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH MOVING OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
FLATTEN TO ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY. A WEAK NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT OVER
EASTERN NM TODAY WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ENOUGH BREEZES AND LOW RH VALUES WILL RESULT IN BORDERLINE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOCUS
LOOKS TO BE FROM CONCHAS EAST TO THE TX BORDER. BUT WITH ONLY A
MODERATE HAINES FORECAST AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF NO VERY HIGH OR
EXTREME FIRE DANGER WE WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING.

ZONAL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY BENEATH THE UPPER WAVE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND ON THE EAST SLOPES. ANOTHER NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL WORK INTO
THE PLAINS LATER SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN MONDAY.
TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE UP AND DOWN OVER THE EAST WITH THESE WIND
SHIFTS BUT OVERALL REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

VENT RATES WILL JUMP AROUND AS WELL. VENTILATION WILL TREND TO GOOD
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN DETERIORATE TO FAIR TO POOR AGAIN FOR MOST
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WORST DAY. VENT RATES
WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATER NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

BEFORE WE SEE ANY STORM SYSTEM THOUGH WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER NM THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
MEANS DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.

MODELS TRENDING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH...TO THE EXTENT
WE MAY RECEIVE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A SOUTHERLY TAP OF
MOISTURE MAY...JUST MAY...BRING MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION TO THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 130002 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
502 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS AREAWIDE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH CLEAR
SKIES AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS A MODERATE CHANCE OF SOME
LOW CIGS...MVFR IF NOT LOCALLY IFR CATEGORY...OVER PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES BETWEEN ROUGHLY 10Z AND ABOUT 18Z SAT
AND IN SAME GENERAL AREA WIND GUSTS TO 25 OR 30KT AFTER 18Z
SATURDAY ACROSS THE PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN BORDER COUNTIES EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...311 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. TODAY. A WEAK FRONT NUDGED INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO EARLIER TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL MANAGED TO
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES PERSISTING. IN FACT...MANY AREAS WILL
APPROACH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BREEZES RELAXING SOME INTO SUNDAY. A FRONT
WILL ALSO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...SETTING
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN DEVELOP WEST OF NEW MEXICO TO START OUT THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...LEADING TO A CONTINUATION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER NM THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENTLY A STOUT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
SWOLLEN OVER THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST WITH IMPRESSIVE MID
TROPOSPHERIC PRESSURE HEIGHTS...VALUES THAT ARE ACTUALLY RIVALING
SUMMERTIME VALUES. THIS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS ACTED AS AN
EXTREME DESICCANT WITH HARDLY A CLOUD IN NM. LOOK FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...LIKELY A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING`S READINGS. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY IN
THE PLAINS OF FAR EASTERN NM. THIS WILL USHER IN SOME HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...LOW CLOUDS...AND POTENTIALLY SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR THE
WEST TX BORDER THROUGH LATE MORNING SATURDAY.

THE RIDGE ALOFT ABRUPTLY FLATTENS ON SATURDAY AND THE FLOW WILL
RESPOND BY SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PICK
UP SPEED TO ABOUT 30-35 KT AT 700 MB ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM...AND A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ALSO DEEPEN...ULTIMATELY DRIVING STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TO EASTERN ZONES. THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL NUDGE TEMPERATURES
UP AGAIN IN THE EAST. ALL LOCALES WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
EXCEED NORMAL MID FEBRUARY VALUES BY 10 TO 20 DEGREES...AND SEVERAL
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY SATURDAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER NM SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...AND HENCE SOME GUSTS WILL
LIKELY BE OBSERVED OVER RIDGE TOPS OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL INVADE NM ON SUNDAY...AND THIS DUAL-SEGMENTED BOUNDARY WILL
ACTUALLY BE ORIENTED IN SUCH A WAY THAT IT COULD OFFSET SOME OF
THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES.

INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ANOTHER
APPEARANCE...INDUCING A VERY DRY...SUBSIDENT...AND TRANQUIL
PATTERN. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM EACH DAY...RISING WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC TROUGH...AND
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF NM ON THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE VERY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
TROUGH...BUT AN INCREASE IN WIND APPEARS TO BE A MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS OF NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN AGAIN NEXT THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF THE EAST.
WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION RATES LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ON TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH VALUES WITH PERIODIC
BREEZINESS WILL BE THE THEME THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SNOWPACK IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM MELTING AND SUBLIMATION.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH MOVING OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
FLATTEN TO ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY. A WEAK NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT OVER
EASTERN NM TODAY WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ENOUGH BREEZES AND LOW RH VALUES WILL RESULT IN BORDERLINE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOCUS
LOOKS TO BE FROM CONCHAS EAST TO THE TX BORDER. BUT WITH ONLY A
MODERATE HAINES FORECAST AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF NO VERY HIGH OR
EXTREME FIRE DANGER WE WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING.

ZONAL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY BENEATH THE UPPER WAVE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND ON THE EAST SLOPES. ANOTHER NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL WORK INTO
THE PLAINS LATER SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN MONDAY.
TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE UP AND DOWN OVER THE EAST WITH THESE WIND
SHIFTS BUT OVERALL REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

VENT RATES WILL JUMP AROUND AS WELL. VENTILATION WILL TREND TO GOOD
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN DETERIORATE TO FAIR TO POOR AGAIN FOR MOST
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WORST DAY. VENT RATES
WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATER NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

BEFORE WE SEE ANY STORM SYSTEM THOUGH WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER NM THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
MEANS DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.

MODELS TRENDING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH...TO THE EXTENT
WE MAY RECEIVE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A SOUTHERLY TAP OF
MOISTURE MAY...JUST MAY...BRING MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION TO THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 122211
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
311 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. TODAY. A WEAK FRONT NUDGED INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO EARLIER TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL MANAGED TO
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES PERSISTING. IN FACT...MANY AREAS WILL
APPROACH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BREEZES RELAXING SOME INTO SUNDAY. A FRONT
WILL ALSO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...SETTING
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN DEVELOP WEST OF NEW MEXICO TO START OUT THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...LEADING TO A CONTINUATION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER NM THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENTLY A STOUT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
SWOLLEN OVER THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST WITH IMPRESSIVE MID
TROPOSPHERIC PRESSURE HEIGHTS...VALUES THAT ARE ACTUALLY RIVALING
SUMMERTIME VALUES. THIS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS ACTED AS AN
EXTREME DESICCANT WITH HARDLY A CLOUD IN NM. LOOK FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...LIKELY A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING`S READINGS. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY IN
THE PLAINS OF FAR EASTERN NM. THIS WILL USHER IN SOME HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...LOW CLOUDS...AND POTENTIALLY SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR THE
WEST TX BORDER THROUGH LATE MORNING SATURDAY.

THE RIDGE ALOFT ABRUPTLY FLATTENS ON SATURDAY AND THE FLOW WILL
RESPOND BY SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PICK
UP SPEED TO ABOUT 30-35 KT AT 700 MB ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM...AND A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ALSO DEEPEN...ULTIMATELY DRIVING STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TO EASTERN ZONES. THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL NUDGE TEMPERATURES
UP AGAIN IN THE EAST. ALL LOCALES WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
EXCEED NORMAL MID FEBRUARY VALUES BY 10 TO 20 DEGREES...AND SEVERAL
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY SATURDAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER NM SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...AND HENCE SOME GUSTS WILL
LIKELY BE OBSERVED OVER RIDGE TOPS OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL INVADE NM ON SUNDAY...AND THIS DUAL-SEGMENTED BOUNDARY WILL
ACTUALLY BE ORIENTED IN SUCH A WAY THAT IT COULD OFFSET SOME OF
THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES.

INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ANOTHER
APPEARANCE...INDUCING A VERY DRY...SUBSIDENT...AND TRANQUIL
PATTERN. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM EACH DAY...RISING WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC TROUGH...AND
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF NM ON THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE VERY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
TROUGH...BUT AN INCREASE IN WIND APPEARS TO BE A MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS OF NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN AGAIN NEXT THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF THE EAST.
WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION RATES LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ON TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH VALUES WITH PERIODIC
BREEZINESS WILL BE THE THEME THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SNOWPACK IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM MELTING AND SUBLIMATION.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH MOVING OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
FLATTEN TO ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY. A WEAK NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT OVER
EASTERN NM TODAY WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ENOUGH BREEZES AND LOW RH VALUES WILL RESULT IN BORDERLINE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOCUS
LOOKS TO BE FROM CONCHAS EAST TO THE TX BORDER. BUT WITH ONLY A
MODERATE HAINES FORECAST AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF NO VERY HIGH OR
EXTREME FIRE DANGER WE WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING.

ZONAL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY BENEATH THE UPPER WAVE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND ON THE EAST SLOPES. ANOTHER NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL WORK INTO
THE PLAINS LATER SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN MONDAY.
TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE UP AND DOWN OVER THE EAST WITH THESE WIND
SHIFTS BUT OVERALL REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

VENT RATES WILL JUMP AROUND AS WELL. VENTILATION WILL TREND TO GOOD
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN DETERIORATE TO FAIR TO POOR AGAIN FOR MOST
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WORST DAY. VENT RATES
WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATER NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

BEFORE WE SEE ANY STORM SYSTEM THOUGH WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER NM THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
MEANS DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.

MODELS TRENDING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH...TO THE EXTENT
WE MAY RECEIVE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A SOUTHERLY TAP OF
MOISTURE MAY...JUST MAY...BRING MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION TO THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT AFTER
18Z SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  27  64  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  17  58  16  51 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  27  62  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  21  69  21  62 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  22  65  22  58 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  19  70  21  65 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  31  67  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  22  73  24  73 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  20  54  19  50 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  37  60  35  58 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  33  59  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  21  52  19  48 /   0   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  15  51  17  45 /   0   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  12  51  13  45 /   0   0   0   0
TAOS............................  24  56  23  51 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  28  60  29  53 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  28  71  28  66 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  33  63  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  31  65  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  33  69  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  35  70  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  30  72  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  32  72  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  29  72  30  69 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  35  72  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  34  74  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  33  64  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  36  66  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  25  69  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  29  62  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  35  67  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  34  70  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  37  66  40  62 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  23  65  25  57 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................  24  68  26  59 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  23  69  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  30  68  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  32  71  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  28  69  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  33  74  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  33  74  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  29  74  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  33  68  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  33  69  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  35  70  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  32  75  34  75 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  34  74  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  32  70  36  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52



000
FXUS65 KABQ 122211
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
311 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. TODAY. A WEAK FRONT NUDGED INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO EARLIER TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL MANAGED TO
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES PERSISTING. IN FACT...MANY AREAS WILL
APPROACH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BREEZES RELAXING SOME INTO SUNDAY. A FRONT
WILL ALSO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...SETTING
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN DEVELOP WEST OF NEW MEXICO TO START OUT THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...LEADING TO A CONTINUATION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER NM THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENTLY A STOUT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
SWOLLEN OVER THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST WITH IMPRESSIVE MID
TROPOSPHERIC PRESSURE HEIGHTS...VALUES THAT ARE ACTUALLY RIVALING
SUMMERTIME VALUES. THIS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS ACTED AS AN
EXTREME DESICCANT WITH HARDLY A CLOUD IN NM. LOOK FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...LIKELY A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING`S READINGS. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY IN
THE PLAINS OF FAR EASTERN NM. THIS WILL USHER IN SOME HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...LOW CLOUDS...AND POTENTIALLY SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR THE
WEST TX BORDER THROUGH LATE MORNING SATURDAY.

THE RIDGE ALOFT ABRUPTLY FLATTENS ON SATURDAY AND THE FLOW WILL
RESPOND BY SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PICK
UP SPEED TO ABOUT 30-35 KT AT 700 MB ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM...AND A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ALSO DEEPEN...ULTIMATELY DRIVING STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TO EASTERN ZONES. THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL NUDGE TEMPERATURES
UP AGAIN IN THE EAST. ALL LOCALES WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
EXCEED NORMAL MID FEBRUARY VALUES BY 10 TO 20 DEGREES...AND SEVERAL
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY SATURDAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER NM SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...AND HENCE SOME GUSTS WILL
LIKELY BE OBSERVED OVER RIDGE TOPS OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL INVADE NM ON SUNDAY...AND THIS DUAL-SEGMENTED BOUNDARY WILL
ACTUALLY BE ORIENTED IN SUCH A WAY THAT IT COULD OFFSET SOME OF
THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES.

INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ANOTHER
APPEARANCE...INDUCING A VERY DRY...SUBSIDENT...AND TRANQUIL
PATTERN. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM EACH DAY...RISING WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC TROUGH...AND
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF NM ON THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE VERY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
TROUGH...BUT AN INCREASE IN WIND APPEARS TO BE A MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS OF NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN AGAIN NEXT THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF THE EAST.
WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION RATES LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ON TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH VALUES WITH PERIODIC
BREEZINESS WILL BE THE THEME THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SNOWPACK IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM MELTING AND SUBLIMATION.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH MOVING OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
FLATTEN TO ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY. A WEAK NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT OVER
EASTERN NM TODAY WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ENOUGH BREEZES AND LOW RH VALUES WILL RESULT IN BORDERLINE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOCUS
LOOKS TO BE FROM CONCHAS EAST TO THE TX BORDER. BUT WITH ONLY A
MODERATE HAINES FORECAST AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF NO VERY HIGH OR
EXTREME FIRE DANGER WE WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING.

ZONAL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY BENEATH THE UPPER WAVE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND ON THE EAST SLOPES. ANOTHER NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL WORK INTO
THE PLAINS LATER SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN MONDAY.
TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE UP AND DOWN OVER THE EAST WITH THESE WIND
SHIFTS BUT OVERALL REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

VENT RATES WILL JUMP AROUND AS WELL. VENTILATION WILL TREND TO GOOD
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN DETERIORATE TO FAIR TO POOR AGAIN FOR MOST
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WORST DAY. VENT RATES
WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATER NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

BEFORE WE SEE ANY STORM SYSTEM THOUGH WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER NM THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
MEANS DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.

MODELS TRENDING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH...TO THE EXTENT
WE MAY RECEIVE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A SOUTHERLY TAP OF
MOISTURE MAY...JUST MAY...BRING MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION TO THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT AFTER
18Z SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  27  64  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  17  58  16  51 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  27  62  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  21  69  21  62 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  22  65  22  58 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  19  70  21  65 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  31  67  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  22  73  24  73 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  20  54  19  50 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  37  60  35  58 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  33  59  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  21  52  19  48 /   0   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  15  51  17  45 /   0   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  12  51  13  45 /   0   0   0   0
TAOS............................  24  56  23  51 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  28  60  29  53 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  28  71  28  66 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  33  63  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  31  65  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  33  69  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  35  70  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  30  72  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  32  72  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  29  72  30  69 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  35  72  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  34  74  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  33  64  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  36  66  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  25  69  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  29  62  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  35  67  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  34  70  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  37  66  40  62 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  23  65  25  57 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................  24  68  26  59 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  23  69  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  30  68  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  32  71  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  28  69  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  33  74  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  33  74  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  29  74  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  33  68  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  33  69  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  35  70  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  32  75  34  75 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  34  74  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  32  70  36  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52




000
FXUS65 KABQ 122211
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
311 PM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS THE DOMINANT WEATHER FEATURE OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. TODAY. A WEAK FRONT NUDGED INTO EASTERN NEW
MEXICO EARLIER TODAY...BUT TEMPERATURES HAVE STILL MANAGED TO
RISE ABOVE NORMAL. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP IN
CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES PERSISTING. IN FACT...MANY AREAS WILL
APPROACH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST OF NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH BREEZES RELAXING SOME INTO SUNDAY. A FRONT
WILL ALSO SAG SOUTHWARD INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY...SETTING
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES. ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
WILL THEN DEVELOP WEST OF NEW MEXICO TO START OUT THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...LEADING TO A CONTINUATION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A DRY STRETCH OF WEATHER IS STILL EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OVER NM THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. CURRENTLY A STOUT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS
SWOLLEN OVER THE AMERICAN SOUTHWEST WITH IMPRESSIVE MID
TROPOSPHERIC PRESSURE HEIGHTS...VALUES THAT ARE ACTUALLY RIVALING
SUMMERTIME VALUES. THIS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS ACTED AS AN
EXTREME DESICCANT WITH HARDLY A CLOUD IN NM. LOOK FOR ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT...LIKELY A COUPLE TO A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN THIS MORNING`S READINGS. WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY IN
THE PLAINS OF FAR EASTERN NM. THIS WILL USHER IN SOME HIGHER
DEWPOINTS...LOW CLOUDS...AND POTENTIALLY SOME PATCHY FOG NEAR THE
WEST TX BORDER THROUGH LATE MORNING SATURDAY.

THE RIDGE ALOFT ABRUPTLY FLATTENS ON SATURDAY AND THE FLOW WILL
RESPOND BY SHIFTING MORE WESTERLY. THE FLOW ALOFT WILL ALSO PICK
UP SPEED TO ABOUT 30-35 KT AT 700 MB ALONG AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN OF NM...AND A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL
ALSO DEEPEN...ULTIMATELY DRIVING STRONGER WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL
TO EASTERN ZONES. THESE DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL NUDGE TEMPERATURES
UP AGAIN IN THE EAST. ALL LOCALES WITHIN THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD
EXCEED NORMAL MID FEBRUARY VALUES BY 10 TO 20 DEGREES...AND SEVERAL
RECORD HIGHS WILL BE IN JEOPARDY SATURDAY.

THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE NORTHWESTERLY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPPING OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND INTO THE
NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS. THIS WILL KEEP SOME STRONGER NW FLOW ALOFT
OVER NM SATURDAY NIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY...AND HENCE SOME GUSTS WILL
LIKELY BE OBSERVED OVER RIDGE TOPS OVERNIGHT. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
WILL INVADE NM ON SUNDAY...AND THIS DUAL-SEGMENTED BOUNDARY WILL
ACTUALLY BE ORIENTED IN SUCH A WAY THAT IT COULD OFFSET SOME OF
THE STRONGER FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL
BACK A FEW TO SEVERAL DEGREES.

INTO THE NEXT WORK WEEK THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MAKES ANOTHER
APPEARANCE...INDUCING A VERY DRY...SUBSIDENT...AND TRANQUIL
PATTERN. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO WARM EACH DAY...RISING WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE AGAIN BY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE RIDGE WILL
SLOWLY BREAK DOWN DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A PACIFIC TROUGH...AND
THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO TRACK JUST NORTH OF NM ON THURSDAY.
THERE WILL BE VERY MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WITH THIS
TROUGH...BUT AN INCREASE IN WIND APPEARS TO BE A MORE LIKELY
SCENARIO.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS INCLUDE THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW HOURS OF NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS...THEN AGAIN NEXT THURSDAY OVER MUCH OF THE EAST.
WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION RATES LOOKS TO BE CENTERED ON TUESDAY
OF NEXT WEEK.

WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOW RH VALUES WITH PERIODIC
BREEZINESS WILL BE THE THEME THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SNOWPACK IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM MELTING AND SUBLIMATION.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH MOVING OVER NEW MEXICO WILL
FLATTEN TO ZONAL FLOW SATURDAY. A WEAK NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT OVER
EASTERN NM TODAY WILL MOVE FARTHER SOUTH TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY.
ENOUGH BREEZES AND LOW RH VALUES WILL RESULT IN BORDERLINE CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR A FEW HOURS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FOCUS
LOOKS TO BE FROM CONCHAS EAST TO THE TX BORDER. BUT WITH ONLY A
MODERATE HAINES FORECAST AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF NO VERY HIGH OR
EXTREME FIRE DANGER WE WILL NOT ISSUE A RED FLAG WARNING.

ZONAL FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE
MOVES SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS WILL BECOME
BREEZY BENEATH THE UPPER WAVE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN
AND ON THE EAST SLOPES. ANOTHER NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL WORK INTO
THE PLAINS LATER SUNDAY FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN MONDAY.
TEMPS WILL FLUCTUATE UP AND DOWN OVER THE EAST WITH THESE WIND
SHIFTS BUT OVERALL REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

VENT RATES WILL JUMP AROUND AS WELL. VENTILATION WILL TREND TO GOOD
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY THEN DETERIORATE TO FAIR TO POOR AGAIN FOR MOST
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH TUESDAY BEING THE WORST DAY. VENT RATES
WILL THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATER NEXT WEEK AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

BEFORE WE SEE ANY STORM SYSTEM THOUGH WE WILL HAVE ANOTHER RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE BUILD OVER NM THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK. THIS
MEANS DRY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ONCE AGAIN.

MODELS TRENDING THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM FARTHER NORTH...TO THE EXTENT
WE MAY RECEIVE LITTLE OR NO PRECIPITATION LATE NEXT WEEK. WE WILL
CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. A SOUTHERLY TAP OF
MOISTURE MAY...JUST MAY...BRING MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION TO THE
FORECAST AREA NEXT WEEKEND.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT AFTER
18Z SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  27  64  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  17  58  16  51 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  27  62  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  21  69  21  62 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  22  65  22  58 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  19  70  21  65 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  31  67  30  61 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  22  73  24  73 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  20  54  19  50 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  37  60  35  58 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  33  59  33  54 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  21  52  19  48 /   0   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  15  51  17  45 /   0   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  12  51  13  45 /   0   0   0   0
TAOS............................  24  56  23  51 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  28  60  29  53 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  28  71  28  66 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  33  63  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  31  65  31  61 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  33  69  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  35  70  35  66 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  30  72  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  32  72  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  29  72  30  69 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  35  72  35  69 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  34  74  35  72 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  33  64  33  59 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  36  66  35  61 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  25  69  27  63 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  29  62  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  35  67  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  34  70  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  37  66  40  62 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  23  65  25  57 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................  24  68  26  59 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  23  69  26  61 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  30  68  33  60 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  32  71  36  59 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  28  69  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  33  74  36  66 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  33  74  40  68 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  29  74  32  65 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  33  68  38  66 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  33  69  39  67 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  35  70  39  68 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  32  75  34  75 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  34  74  38  74 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  32  70  36  68 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52




000
FXUS65 KABQ 121747 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1047 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH
CLEAR SKIES AND MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KT AFTER
18Z SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...302 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING RECORD AND NEAR RECORD WARMTH
TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES SKYROCKET 8 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A DRY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT CAUSING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW TO 13
DEGREES FROM SATURDAYS READINGS ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER DRY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING A BIT FURTHER IN MANY PLACES ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING AGAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONTS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A LEE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE BROAD ENOUGH TO SPREAD A FEW
SHOWERS INTO NEW MEXICO THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL PROBABLY BE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPS AND LOW RH WITH PERIODIC BREEZES WILL BE THE
THEME THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SNOWPACK IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO ERODE FROM MELTING AND SUBLIMATION. NEXT THURSDAY IS IN THE SCOPE
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER AZ WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND
FLATTEN TO ZONAL FLOW OVER NM THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT OVER EASTERN NM TODAY WILL SHIFT SOUTH SATURDAY. ZONAL
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NW SUNDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES SE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY BENEATH THE UPPER
WAVE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ON THE EAST SLOPES.
ANOTHER NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL WORK INTO THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN MONDAY. TEMPS WILL YOYO OVER THE
EAST WITH THESE WIND SHIFTS BUT OVERALL REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

VENT RATES WILL FLUCTUATE AS WELL. POOR VENTILATION TODAY WILL TREND
GOOD SATURDAY/SUNDAY THEN DETERIORATE TO POOR AGAIN FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE EAST WILL REMAIN GOOD WITH BETTER
MIXING.

ANOTHER UPPER HIGH WILL CREST OVER NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
NEAR RECORD TEMPS AND LOW RH AGAIN. A BREAK DOWN PATTERN THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD FAVORABLE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR
EASTERN NM IN QUITE SOME TIME. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE AND WHETHER ANY MOISTURE WILL WORK OVER NM.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS DRY WITH COOLER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 121109 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
409 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR ALL AREAS WITH WARM TEMPS...LIGHT WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...302 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING RECORD AND NEAR RECORD WARMTH
TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES SKYROCKET 8 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A DRY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT CAUSING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW TO 13
DEGREES FROM SATURDAYS READINGS ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER DRY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING A BIT FURTHER IN MANY PLACES ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING AGAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONTS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A LEE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE BROAD ENOUGH TO SPREAD A FEW
SHOWERS INTO NEW MEXICO THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL PROBABLY BE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPS AND LOW RH WITH PERIODIC BREEZES WILL BE THE
THEME THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SNOWPACK IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO ERODE FROM MELTING AND SUBLIMATION. NEXT THURSDAY IS IN THE SCOPE
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER AZ WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND
FLATTEN TO ZONAL FLOW OVER NM THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT OVER EASTERN NM TODAY WILL SHIFT SOUTH SATURDAY. ZONAL
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NW SUNDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES SE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY BENEATH THE UPPER
WAVE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ON THE EAST SLOPES.
ANOTHER NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL WORK INTO THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN MONDAY. TEMPS WILL YOYO OVER THE
EAST WITH THESE WIND SHIFTS BUT OVERALL REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

VENT RATES WILL FLUCTUATE AS WELL. POOR VENTILATION TODAY WILL TREND
GOOD SATURDAY/SUNDAY THEN DETERIORATE TO POOR AGAIN FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE EAST WILL REMAIN GOOD WITH BETTER
MIXING.

ANOTHER UPPER HIGH WILL CREST OVER NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
NEAR RECORD TEMPS AND LOW RH AGAIN. A BREAK DOWN PATTERN THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD FAVORABLE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR
EASTERN NM IN QUITE SOME TIME. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE AND WHETHER ANY MOISTURE WILL WORK OVER NM.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS DRY WITH COOLER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 121109 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
409 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR ALL AREAS WITH WARM TEMPS...LIGHT WINDS...AND CLEAR SKIES.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...302 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING RECORD AND NEAR RECORD WARMTH
TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES SKYROCKET 8 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A DRY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT CAUSING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW TO 13
DEGREES FROM SATURDAYS READINGS ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER DRY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING A BIT FURTHER IN MANY PLACES ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING AGAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONTS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A LEE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE BROAD ENOUGH TO SPREAD A FEW
SHOWERS INTO NEW MEXICO THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL PROBABLY BE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPS AND LOW RH WITH PERIODIC BREEZES WILL BE THE
THEME THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SNOWPACK IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO ERODE FROM MELTING AND SUBLIMATION. NEXT THURSDAY IS IN THE SCOPE
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER AZ WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND
FLATTEN TO ZONAL FLOW OVER NM THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT OVER EASTERN NM TODAY WILL SHIFT SOUTH SATURDAY. ZONAL
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NW SUNDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES SE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY BENEATH THE UPPER
WAVE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ON THE EAST SLOPES.
ANOTHER NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL WORK INTO THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN MONDAY. TEMPS WILL YOYO OVER THE
EAST WITH THESE WIND SHIFTS BUT OVERALL REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

VENT RATES WILL FLUCTUATE AS WELL. POOR VENTILATION TODAY WILL TREND
GOOD SATURDAY/SUNDAY THEN DETERIORATE TO POOR AGAIN FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE EAST WILL REMAIN GOOD WITH BETTER
MIXING.

ANOTHER UPPER HIGH WILL CREST OVER NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
NEAR RECORD TEMPS AND LOW RH AGAIN. A BREAK DOWN PATTERN THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD FAVORABLE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR
EASTERN NM IN QUITE SOME TIME. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE AND WHETHER ANY MOISTURE WILL WORK OVER NM.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS DRY WITH COOLER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 121002
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
302 AM MST FRI FEB 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING RECORD AND NEAR RECORD WARMTH
TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY AND SATURDAY AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES SKYROCKET 8 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A DRY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN CROSS FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH A COLD FRONT
SATURDAY NIGHT CAUSING HIGH TEMPERATURES TO FALL A FEW TO 13
DEGREES FROM SATURDAYS READINGS ON SUNDAY. ANOTHER DRY UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL BRING ANOTHER COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING A BIT FURTHER IN MANY PLACES ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING AGAIN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EVEN WITH THE COLD FRONTS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND AND MONDAY...HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL. A LEE TROUGH WILL
RESULT IN BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS SATURDAY.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO EJECT
NORTHEASTWARD FROM CALIFORNIA INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AT THE END
OF THE WEEK. THIS SYSTEM MAY BE BROAD ENOUGH TO SPREAD A FEW
SHOWERS INTO NEW MEXICO THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL PROBABLY BE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEAR RECORD WARM TEMPS AND LOW RH WITH PERIODIC BREEZES WILL BE THE
THEME THROUGH NEXT WEEK. SNOWPACK IN THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL CONTINUE
TO ERODE FROM MELTING AND SUBLIMATION. NEXT THURSDAY IS IN THE SCOPE
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH OVER AZ WILL SHIFT EAST TODAY AND
FLATTEN TO ZONAL FLOW OVER NM THROUGH SATURDAY. A WEAK NORTHERLY
WIND SHIFT OVER EASTERN NM TODAY WILL SHIFT SOUTH SATURDAY. ZONAL
FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO NW SUNDAY AS AN UPPER WAVE MOVES SE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY BENEATH THE UPPER
WAVE...PARTICULARLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ON THE EAST SLOPES.
ANOTHER NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WILL WORK INTO THE PLAINS LATE SUNDAY
FOLLOWED BY SOUTHERLY WINDS AGAIN MONDAY. TEMPS WILL YOYO OVER THE
EAST WITH THESE WIND SHIFTS BUT OVERALL REMAIN ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE
NORMAL.

VENT RATES WILL FLUCTUATE AS WELL. POOR VENTILATION TODAY WILL TREND
GOOD SATURDAY/SUNDAY THEN DETERIORATE TO POOR AGAIN FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM MOST OF NEXT WEEK. THE EAST WILL REMAIN GOOD WITH BETTER
MIXING.

ANOTHER UPPER HIGH WILL CREST OVER NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH
NEAR RECORD TEMPS AND LOW RH AGAIN. A BREAK DOWN PATTERN THURSDAY
LOOKS TO BE THE MOST WIDESPREAD FAVORABLE RED FLAG CONDITIONS FOR
EASTERN NM IN QUITE SOME TIME. MODELS HAVE BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH
THE UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE AND WHETHER ANY MOISTURE WILL WORK OVER NM.
AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS DRY WITH COOLER TEMPS FOR FRIDAY.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION HAZARDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. UPPER LVL RIDGE TO WEST OF NM
TO SHIFT EASTWARD TO NEAR THE AZ NM STATE LINE BY END OF THIS
FCST PERIOD...00Z SAT. MOSTLY LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE.
WEAK NLY WIND SHIFT TO WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE AND E CENTRAL
PLAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  27  63  29 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  54  16  58  17 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  57  27  61  26 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  67  19  69  20 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  65  20  64  20 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  71  18  70  21 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  68  29  67  30 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  73  21  72  24 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  51  22  52  21 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  61  34  63  35 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  58  32  59  34 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  53  20  52  19 /   0   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  52  20  50  17 /   0   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  50  15  51  13 /   0   0   0   0
TAOS............................  55  23  56  23 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  58  28  60  30 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  69  28  70  29 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  62  35  62  35 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  64  30  65  31 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  68  38  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  69  35  69  36 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  71  34  71  35 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  74  35  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  70  29  71  31 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  72  35  72  35 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  71  33  74  35 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  63  35  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  66  35  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  69  23  69  25 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  59  28  62  30 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  66  34  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  69  34  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  64  35  65  40 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  60  31  65  32 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................  64  24  68  27 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  64  23  68  26 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  64  30  68  33 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  63  32  70  36 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  63  28  69  32 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  69  32  74  37 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  69  32  73  39 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  69  29  73  33 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  69  32  68  38 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  70  33  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  69  35  69  39 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  74  31  74  34 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  71  33  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  67  34  70  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44




000
FXUS65 KABQ 120603 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1103 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION HAZARDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. UPPER LVL RIDGE TO WEST OF NM
TO SHIFT EASTWARD TO NEAR THE AZ NM STATE LINE BY END OF THIS
FCST PERIOD...00Z SAT. MOSTLY LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE.
WEAK NLY WIND SHIFT TO WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE AND E CENTRAL
PLAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE A WEAK FRONT
MOVING INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO...TEMPERATURES HAVE ONCE AGAIN
RISEN ABOVE NORMAL. SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES PERSISTING. AFTER A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT PASSES...BREEZES WILL SLOWLY RELAX LATE ON SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WEST OF NEW
MEXICO...LEADING TO A CONTINUATION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OMEGA BLOCK WITH WESTERN U.S. RIDGE CONTINUES TO SPELL WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR NM. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DID PASS
THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS LAST NIGHT...BUT HAS ONLY SET
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES...WITH ALL LOCALES STILL EXCEEDING
CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. VERY FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO CREEP INTO THE STATE AND WINDS THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAIN LIGHT. EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO
RUN PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT OVERALL
THE PERSISTENCE TREND HAS BEEN LEANED ON.

INTO FRIDAY...DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN EXCEEDING
GUIDANCE IN MANY LOCALES...SO FORECAST HAS BEEN BUILT WITH THAT IN
MIND. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOLING IN THE EAST AS ANOTHER WEAK
SURFACE FRONT SLIDES IN FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST...BUT AGAIN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AREA WIDE. INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
THE SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY IN THE PLAINS...AND THE
RETURN FLOW SHOULD USHER IN SOME RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF THE
STATE.

THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE ZONAL ON SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL INDUCE A STRONGER
GRADIENT ALOFT OVER NM WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS IN THE 700-500MB
LAYER. A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE...LEADING TO
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE
EAST WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT OVER NM WILL RETURN TO A
NORTHWESTERLY ONE WITH A TRAILING WAVE SET TO EXIT CANADA ON A
TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP SOME
RELATIVELY STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ALOFT OVER NM SUNDAY...BUT
GRADUALLY DECREASING LATE IN THE DAY. THE BOTTOM LINE WILL BE A
CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL AND DRY TREND ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER UPSTREAM DEVELOPING RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PUSHING TEMPERATURES UPWARDS OF 15 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NOT UNTIL
THURSDAY DOES A PERTURBATION MOVE OFF OF THE PACIFIC AND BREAK
DOWN THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE ONLY A
WIND MAKER FOR NM WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. POOR VENTILATION OVERALL FRIDAY WILL TREND TOWARDS SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO GOOD EAST AND SOUTH SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
CRATERING FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS MONDAY...AND BECOMING POOR MOST
LOCATIONS TUESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES
WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE A BIT...OR SHUNT IT WESTWARD TEMPORARILY.
THESE BOTH WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT MAY HAVE SOMEWHAT MORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST...IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT...BUT THERE
LOOKS TO BE SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...WITH THE
ECMWF FASTER. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE WITH THESE
SYSTEMS...AND SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST MT TOP WINDS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS STILL SUGGESTING
SOME 40 TO 45 KT H7 WINDS FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...BRIEF AND SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

SOME GYRATIONS IN MAX RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT...AS RETURN FLOW BRINGS
SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS EAST OF THE PECOS
VALLEY. HOWEVER...FAIR TO POOR RH RECOVERIES WILL PLAGUE PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN INTO THE WEEKEND...AND AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW MELT MAY
LOCALLY IMPACT HUMIDITIES AND RECOVERIES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
HOWEVER.

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CONFIDENCE THOUGH...WITH THE LATE NEXT
WEEK SYSTEM NOW LOOKING PRETTY PUNY AND TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 120603 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1103 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL WITH NO SIGNIFICANT AVIATION HAZARDS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE FCST PERIOD. UPPER LVL RIDGE TO WEST OF NM
TO SHIFT EASTWARD TO NEAR THE AZ NM STATE LINE BY END OF THIS
FCST PERIOD...00Z SAT. MOSTLY LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE.
WEAK NLY WIND SHIFT TO WORK SOUTHWARD ACROSS NE AND E CENTRAL
PLAINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE A WEAK FRONT
MOVING INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO...TEMPERATURES HAVE ONCE AGAIN
RISEN ABOVE NORMAL. SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES PERSISTING. AFTER A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT PASSES...BREEZES WILL SLOWLY RELAX LATE ON SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WEST OF NEW
MEXICO...LEADING TO A CONTINUATION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OMEGA BLOCK WITH WESTERN U.S. RIDGE CONTINUES TO SPELL WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR NM. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DID PASS
THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS LAST NIGHT...BUT HAS ONLY SET
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES...WITH ALL LOCALES STILL EXCEEDING
CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. VERY FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO CREEP INTO THE STATE AND WINDS THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAIN LIGHT. EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO
RUN PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT OVERALL
THE PERSISTENCE TREND HAS BEEN LEANED ON.

INTO FRIDAY...DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN EXCEEDING
GUIDANCE IN MANY LOCALES...SO FORECAST HAS BEEN BUILT WITH THAT IN
MIND. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOLING IN THE EAST AS ANOTHER WEAK
SURFACE FRONT SLIDES IN FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST...BUT AGAIN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AREA WIDE. INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
THE SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY IN THE PLAINS...AND THE
RETURN FLOW SHOULD USHER IN SOME RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF THE
STATE.

THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE ZONAL ON SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL INDUCE A STRONGER
GRADIENT ALOFT OVER NM WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS IN THE 700-500MB
LAYER. A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE...LEADING TO
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE
EAST WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT OVER NM WILL RETURN TO A
NORTHWESTERLY ONE WITH A TRAILING WAVE SET TO EXIT CANADA ON A
TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP SOME
RELATIVELY STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ALOFT OVER NM SUNDAY...BUT
GRADUALLY DECREASING LATE IN THE DAY. THE BOTTOM LINE WILL BE A
CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL AND DRY TREND ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER UPSTREAM DEVELOPING RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PUSHING TEMPERATURES UPWARDS OF 15 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NOT UNTIL
THURSDAY DOES A PERTURBATION MOVE OFF OF THE PACIFIC AND BREAK
DOWN THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE ONLY A
WIND MAKER FOR NM WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. POOR VENTILATION OVERALL FRIDAY WILL TREND TOWARDS SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO GOOD EAST AND SOUTH SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
CRATERING FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS MONDAY...AND BECOMING POOR MOST
LOCATIONS TUESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES
WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE A BIT...OR SHUNT IT WESTWARD TEMPORARILY.
THESE BOTH WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT MAY HAVE SOMEWHAT MORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST...IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT...BUT THERE
LOOKS TO BE SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...WITH THE
ECMWF FASTER. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE WITH THESE
SYSTEMS...AND SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST MT TOP WINDS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS STILL SUGGESTING
SOME 40 TO 45 KT H7 WINDS FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...BRIEF AND SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

SOME GYRATIONS IN MAX RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT...AS RETURN FLOW BRINGS
SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS EAST OF THE PECOS
VALLEY. HOWEVER...FAIR TO POOR RH RECOVERIES WILL PLAGUE PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN INTO THE WEEKEND...AND AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW MELT MAY
LOCALLY IMPACT HUMIDITIES AND RECOVERIES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
HOWEVER.

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CONFIDENCE THOUGH...WITH THE LATE NEXT
WEEK SYSTEM NOW LOOKING PRETTY PUNY AND TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 112349
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
449 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LVL RIDGE FROM LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
TO SHIFT EASTWARD TO NEAR THE AZ NM STATE LINE BY END OF THIS FCST
PERIOD...00Z SAT. MOSTLY LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE.
LOOKING AT ANOTHER WEAK NLY WIND SHIFT FROM NE INTO EAST CENTRAL
NM AFT 01Z. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE A WEAK FRONT
MOVING INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO...TEMPERATURES HAVE ONCE AGAIN
RISEN ABOVE NORMAL. SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES PERSISTING. AFTER A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT PASSES...BREEZES WILL SLOWLY RELAX LATE ON SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WEST OF NEW
MEXICO...LEADING TO A CONTINUATION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OMEGA BLOCK WITH WESTERN U.S. RIDGE CONTINUES TO SPELL WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR NM. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DID PASS
THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS LAST NIGHT...BUT HAS ONLY SET
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES...WITH ALL LOCALES STILL EXCEEDING
CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. VERY FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO CREEP INTO THE STATE AND WINDS THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAIN LIGHT. EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO
RUN PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT OVERALL
THE PERSISTENCE TREND HAS BEEN LEANED ON.

INTO FRIDAY...DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN EXCEEDING
GUIDANCE IN MANY LOCALES...SO FORECAST HAS BEEN BUILT WITH THAT IN
MIND. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOLING IN THE EAST AS ANOTHER WEAK
SURFACE FRONT SLIDES IN FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST...BUT AGAIN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AREA WIDE. INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
THE SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY IN THE PLAINS...AND THE
RETURN FLOW SHOULD USHER IN SOME RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF THE
STATE.

THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE ZONAL ON SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL INDUCE A STRONGER
GRADIENT ALOFT OVER NM WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS IN THE 700-500MB
LAYER. A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE...LEADING TO
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE
EAST WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT OVER NM WILL RETURN TO A
NORTHWESTERLY ONE WITH A TRAILING WAVE SET TO EXIT CANADA ON A
TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP SOME
RELATIVELY STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ALOFT OVER NM SUNDAY...BUT
GRADUALLY DECREASING LATE IN THE DAY. THE BOTTOM LINE WILL BE A
CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL AND DRY TREND ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER UPSTREAM DEVELOPING RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PUSHING TEMPERATURES UPWARDS OF 15 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NOT UNTIL
THURSDAY DOES A PERTURBATION MOVE OFF OF THE PACIFIC AND BREAK
DOWN THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE ONLY A
WIND MAKER FOR NM WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. POOR VENTILATION OVERALL FRIDAY WILL TREND TOWARDS SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO GOOD EAST AND SOUTH SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
CRATERING FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS MONDAY...AND BECOMING POOR MOST
LOCATIONS TUESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES
WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE A BIT...OR SHUNT IT WESTWARD TEMPORARILY.
THESE BOTH WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT MAY HAVE SOMEWHAT MORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST...IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT...BUT THERE
LOOKS TO BE SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...WITH THE
ECMWF FASTER. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE WITH THESE
SYSTEMS...AND SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST MT TOP WINDS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS STILL SUGGESTING
SOME 40 TO 45 KT H7 WINDS FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...BRIEF AND SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

SOME GYRATIONS IN MAX RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT...AS RETURN FLOW BRINGS
SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS EAST OF THE PECOS
VALLEY. HOWEVER...FAIR TO POOR RH RECOVERIES WILL PLAGUE PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN INTO THE WEEKEND...AND AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW MELT MAY
LOCALLY IMPACT HUMIDITIES AND RECOVERIES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
HOWEVER.

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CONFIDENCE THOUGH...WITH THE LATE NEXT
WEEK SYSTEM NOW LOOKING PRETTY PUNY AND TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 112349
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
449 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LVL RIDGE FROM LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
TO SHIFT EASTWARD TO NEAR THE AZ NM STATE LINE BY END OF THIS FCST
PERIOD...00Z SAT. MOSTLY LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE.
LOOKING AT ANOTHER WEAK NLY WIND SHIFT FROM NE INTO EAST CENTRAL
NM AFT 01Z. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE A WEAK FRONT
MOVING INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO...TEMPERATURES HAVE ONCE AGAIN
RISEN ABOVE NORMAL. SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES PERSISTING. AFTER A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT PASSES...BREEZES WILL SLOWLY RELAX LATE ON SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WEST OF NEW
MEXICO...LEADING TO A CONTINUATION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OMEGA BLOCK WITH WESTERN U.S. RIDGE CONTINUES TO SPELL WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR NM. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DID PASS
THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS LAST NIGHT...BUT HAS ONLY SET
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES...WITH ALL LOCALES STILL EXCEEDING
CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. VERY FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO CREEP INTO THE STATE AND WINDS THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAIN LIGHT. EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO
RUN PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT OVERALL
THE PERSISTENCE TREND HAS BEEN LEANED ON.

INTO FRIDAY...DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN EXCEEDING
GUIDANCE IN MANY LOCALES...SO FORECAST HAS BEEN BUILT WITH THAT IN
MIND. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOLING IN THE EAST AS ANOTHER WEAK
SURFACE FRONT SLIDES IN FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST...BUT AGAIN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AREA WIDE. INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
THE SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY IN THE PLAINS...AND THE
RETURN FLOW SHOULD USHER IN SOME RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF THE
STATE.

THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE ZONAL ON SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL INDUCE A STRONGER
GRADIENT ALOFT OVER NM WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS IN THE 700-500MB
LAYER. A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE...LEADING TO
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE
EAST WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT OVER NM WILL RETURN TO A
NORTHWESTERLY ONE WITH A TRAILING WAVE SET TO EXIT CANADA ON A
TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP SOME
RELATIVELY STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ALOFT OVER NM SUNDAY...BUT
GRADUALLY DECREASING LATE IN THE DAY. THE BOTTOM LINE WILL BE A
CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL AND DRY TREND ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER UPSTREAM DEVELOPING RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PUSHING TEMPERATURES UPWARDS OF 15 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NOT UNTIL
THURSDAY DOES A PERTURBATION MOVE OFF OF THE PACIFIC AND BREAK
DOWN THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE ONLY A
WIND MAKER FOR NM WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. POOR VENTILATION OVERALL FRIDAY WILL TREND TOWARDS SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO GOOD EAST AND SOUTH SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
CRATERING FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS MONDAY...AND BECOMING POOR MOST
LOCATIONS TUESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES
WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE A BIT...OR SHUNT IT WESTWARD TEMPORARILY.
THESE BOTH WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT MAY HAVE SOMEWHAT MORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST...IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT...BUT THERE
LOOKS TO BE SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...WITH THE
ECMWF FASTER. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE WITH THESE
SYSTEMS...AND SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST MT TOP WINDS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS STILL SUGGESTING
SOME 40 TO 45 KT H7 WINDS FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...BRIEF AND SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

SOME GYRATIONS IN MAX RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT...AS RETURN FLOW BRINGS
SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS EAST OF THE PECOS
VALLEY. HOWEVER...FAIR TO POOR RH RECOVERIES WILL PLAGUE PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN INTO THE WEEKEND...AND AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW MELT MAY
LOCALLY IMPACT HUMIDITIES AND RECOVERIES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
HOWEVER.

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CONFIDENCE THOUGH...WITH THE LATE NEXT
WEEK SYSTEM NOW LOOKING PRETTY PUNY AND TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 112349
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
449 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LVL RIDGE FROM LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
TO SHIFT EASTWARD TO NEAR THE AZ NM STATE LINE BY END OF THIS FCST
PERIOD...00Z SAT. MOSTLY LIGHT NW FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE.
LOOKING AT ANOTHER WEAK NLY WIND SHIFT FROM NE INTO EAST CENTRAL
NM AFT 01Z. VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE A WEAK FRONT
MOVING INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO...TEMPERATURES HAVE ONCE AGAIN
RISEN ABOVE NORMAL. SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES PERSISTING. AFTER A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT PASSES...BREEZES WILL SLOWLY RELAX LATE ON SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WEST OF NEW
MEXICO...LEADING TO A CONTINUATION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OMEGA BLOCK WITH WESTERN U.S. RIDGE CONTINUES TO SPELL WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR NM. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DID PASS
THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS LAST NIGHT...BUT HAS ONLY SET
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES...WITH ALL LOCALES STILL EXCEEDING
CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. VERY FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO CREEP INTO THE STATE AND WINDS THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAIN LIGHT. EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO
RUN PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT OVERALL
THE PERSISTENCE TREND HAS BEEN LEANED ON.

INTO FRIDAY...DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN EXCEEDING
GUIDANCE IN MANY LOCALES...SO FORECAST HAS BEEN BUILT WITH THAT IN
MIND. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOLING IN THE EAST AS ANOTHER WEAK
SURFACE FRONT SLIDES IN FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST...BUT AGAIN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AREA WIDE. INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
THE SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY IN THE PLAINS...AND THE
RETURN FLOW SHOULD USHER IN SOME RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF THE
STATE.

THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE ZONAL ON SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL INDUCE A STRONGER
GRADIENT ALOFT OVER NM WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS IN THE 700-500MB
LAYER. A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE...LEADING TO
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE
EAST WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT OVER NM WILL RETURN TO A
NORTHWESTERLY ONE WITH A TRAILING WAVE SET TO EXIT CANADA ON A
TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP SOME
RELATIVELY STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ALOFT OVER NM SUNDAY...BUT
GRADUALLY DECREASING LATE IN THE DAY. THE BOTTOM LINE WILL BE A
CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL AND DRY TREND ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER UPSTREAM DEVELOPING RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PUSHING TEMPERATURES UPWARDS OF 15 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NOT UNTIL
THURSDAY DOES A PERTURBATION MOVE OFF OF THE PACIFIC AND BREAK
DOWN THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE ONLY A
WIND MAKER FOR NM WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. POOR VENTILATION OVERALL FRIDAY WILL TREND TOWARDS SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO GOOD EAST AND SOUTH SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
CRATERING FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS MONDAY...AND BECOMING POOR MOST
LOCATIONS TUESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES
WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE A BIT...OR SHUNT IT WESTWARD TEMPORARILY.
THESE BOTH WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT MAY HAVE SOMEWHAT MORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST...IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT...BUT THERE
LOOKS TO BE SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...WITH THE
ECMWF FASTER. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE WITH THESE
SYSTEMS...AND SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST MT TOP WINDS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS STILL SUGGESTING
SOME 40 TO 45 KT H7 WINDS FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...BRIEF AND SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

SOME GYRATIONS IN MAX RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT...AS RETURN FLOW BRINGS
SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS EAST OF THE PECOS
VALLEY. HOWEVER...FAIR TO POOR RH RECOVERIES WILL PLAGUE PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN INTO THE WEEKEND...AND AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW MELT MAY
LOCALLY IMPACT HUMIDITIES AND RECOVERIES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
HOWEVER.

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CONFIDENCE THOUGH...WITH THE LATE NEXT
WEEK SYSTEM NOW LOOKING PRETTY PUNY AND TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 112152
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
252 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH FRIDAY. DESPITE A WEAK FRONT
MOVING INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO...TEMPERATURES HAVE ONCE AGAIN
RISEN ABOVE NORMAL. SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP
IN CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND
RELATIVELY WARM TEMPERATURES PERSISTING. AFTER A WEAK DISTURBANCE
ALOFT PASSES...BREEZES WILL SLOWLY RELAX LATE ON SUNDAY.
THEREAFTER ANOTHER RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP WEST OF NEW
MEXICO...LEADING TO A CONTINUATION OF WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH DRY
AND TRANQUIL CONDITIONS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

OMEGA BLOCK WITH WESTERN U.S. RIDGE CONTINUES TO SPELL WARMER THAN
AVERAGE TEMPERATURES FOR NM. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DID PASS
THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS LAST NIGHT...BUT HAS ONLY SET
TEMPERATURES BACK A FEW DEGREES...WITH ALL LOCALES STILL EXCEEDING
CLIMATOLOGY FOR EARLY FEBRUARY. VERY FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS HAVE
BEEN ABLE TO CREEP INTO THE STATE AND WINDS THROUGH THE
ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN REMAIN LIGHT. EXPECT MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TO
RUN PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT...BUT OVERALL
THE PERSISTENCE TREND HAS BEEN LEANED ON.

INTO FRIDAY...DAYTIME MAX TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN EXCEEDING
GUIDANCE IN MANY LOCALES...SO FORECAST HAS BEEN BUILT WITH THAT IN
MIND. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT COOLING IN THE EAST AS ANOTHER WEAK
SURFACE FRONT SLIDES IN FROM THE EAST NORTHEAST...BUT AGAIN ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL BE THE RULE AREA WIDE. INTO FRIDAY NIGHT
THE SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHERLY IN THE PLAINS...AND THE
RETURN FLOW SHOULD USHER IN SOME RELATIVELY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME LOW CLOUDS INTO THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF THE
STATE.

THE FLOW ALOFT TURNS MORE ZONAL ON SATURDAY AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH
WORKS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL INDUCE A STRONGER
GRADIENT ALOFT OVER NM WITH HIGHER WIND SPEEDS IN THE 700-500MB
LAYER. A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE...LEADING TO
STRONGER WINDS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND TO THE LEE OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. DOWNSLOPING WINDS WILL BOOST TEMPERATURES IN THE
EAST WITH A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.

AS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXITS TOWARD THE GREAT
LAKES ON SUNDAY...THE FLOW ALOFT OVER NM WILL RETURN TO A
NORTHWESTERLY ONE WITH A TRAILING WAVE SET TO EXIT CANADA ON A
TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS WILL KEEP SOME
RELATIVELY STRONGER WIND SPEEDS ALOFT OVER NM SUNDAY...BUT
GRADUALLY DECREASING LATE IN THE DAY. THE BOTTOM LINE WILL BE A
CONTINUED WARMER THAN NORMAL AND DRY TREND ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER UPSTREAM DEVELOPING RIDGE ALOFT WILL MOVE INLAND THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...PUSHING TEMPERATURES UPWARDS OF 15 TO
20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. NOT UNTIL
THURSDAY DOES A PERTURBATION MOVE OFF OF THE PACIFIC AND BREAK
DOWN THE RIDGE. HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS TO BE ONLY A
WIND MAKER FOR NM WITH MINIMAL CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION BY
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY NEXT
WEEK. POOR VENTILATION OVERALL FRIDAY WILL TREND TOWARDS SOME
IMPROVEMENT TO GOOD EAST AND SOUTH SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY BEFORE
CRATERING FOR THE WESTERN TWO THIRDS MONDAY...AND BECOMING POOR MOST
LOCATIONS TUESDAY.

UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS THROUGH FRIDAY THEN A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES
WILL FLATTEN THE RIDGE A BIT...OR SHUNT IT WESTWARD TEMPORARILY.
THESE BOTH WILL BE DRY...ALTHOUGH THE STRONGER DISTURBANCE
SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT MAY HAVE SOMEWHAT MORE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH IT
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST...IF THE ECMWF IS RIGHT...BUT THERE
LOOKS TO BE SOME TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE ECMWF AND GFS...WITH THE
ECMWF FASTER. WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN FEATURE WITH THESE
SYSTEMS...AND SOME GUSTY NORTHWEST MT TOP WINDS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH THE GFS STILL SUGGESTING
SOME 40 TO 45 KT H7 WINDS FORECAST FOR LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT.
OTHERWISE...BRIEF AND SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON IN THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS.

SOME GYRATIONS IN MAX RH VALUES FRIDAY NIGHT...AS RETURN FLOW BRINGS
SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS EAST OF THE PECOS
VALLEY. HOWEVER...FAIR TO POOR RH RECOVERIES WILL PLAGUE PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN INTO THE WEEKEND...AND AS WELL
AS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT. SNOW MELT MAY
LOCALLY IMPACT HUMIDITIES AND RECOVERIES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
HOWEVER.

THE NEXT OPPORTUNITY FOR PRECIPITATION MAY NOT OCCUR UNTIL AFTER THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CONFIDENCE THOUGH...WITH THE LATE NEXT
WEEK SYSTEM NOW LOOKING PRETTY PUNY AND TIMING ISSUES BETWEEN THE
MODELS.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT NW FLOW AT MT TOP LEVELS. SFC LEE TROF AT 18Z TO
GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER WEAK NLY WIND SHIFT NE AND EAST CENTRAL NM AFT
00Z. VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  24  60  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  14  58  15  54 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  25  60  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  17  67  18  67 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  18  64  18  63 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  16  68  16  67 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  26  66  26  64 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  24  72  24  72 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  16  56  19  53 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  35  60  36  60 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  32  59  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  16  50  18  52 /   0   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................   4  50  11  49 /   0   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  -1  51   7  53 /   0   0   0   0
TAOS............................  19  54  20  57 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  26  59  25  59 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  26  67  25  66 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  32  61  30  60 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  29  63  28  62 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  31  65  34  66 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  33  67  36  67 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  28  69  31  69 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  31  68  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  25  70  28  70 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  33  70  34  69 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  31  71  32  71 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  33  64  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  34  66  34  64 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  22  67  24  69 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  29  61  28  65 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  32  67  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  33  70  33  68 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  36  66  33  65 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  22  59  21  64 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................  23  62  22  67 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  22  64  21  67 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  29  62  29  67 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  32  62  30  68 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  29  60  27  66 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  32  66  31  71 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  34  66  31  71 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  28  67  30  72 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  32  68  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  31  69  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  34  69  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  30  72  31  73 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  35  71  33  72 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  34  68  32  69 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52




000
FXUS65 KABQ 111720
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1020 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN/ROCKIES WITH
GENERALLY LIGHT NW FLOW AT MT TOP LEVELS. SFC LEE TROF AT 18Z TO
GIVE WAY TO ANOTHER WEAK NLY WIND SHIFT NE AND EAST CENTRAL NM AFT
00Z. VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...248 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
YESTERDAY WAS QUITE WARM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A FEW AREAS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST SET RECORDS FOR THE DATE. THOUGH IT WILL NOT BE AS
WARM TODAY DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER BACK
DOOR FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...AND A SOMEWHAT STRONGER FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY. EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE NEXT WEEK AREAWIDE. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT LATE
NEXT WEEK NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE COULD SEE A LITTLE
PRECIPITATION WHILE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW IS CAUSING A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS N AND NE
NM THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THAT HAS JUST MOVE THRU KTCC AS OF THIS WRITING. AS
A RESULT...TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...BUT SINCE THERE IS NOT VERY MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS
FRONT...TEMPS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
MEANWHILE...TEMPS ACROSS THE WEST MAY ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND KGUP WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT BREAKING
ITS RECORD FOR THE DATE. ALL AREAS TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

THOUGH TODAYS FRONT WASHES OUT FAST TONIGHT...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE
ARRIVING ON FRIDAY. THIS ONE LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT
AGAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE UP TO A 10 DEGREE
COOLING ACROSS THE NE. RETURN FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME LOW CLOUDS TO FORM ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS ALONG THE TX BORDER. A REPEAT OF THIS MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS SAT NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING FOR A WEAK TROUGH TO CROSS THE ROCKIES AND
CLIP NE NM ON SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. STILL LOOKS TO BE A DRY PASSAGE.
GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO WEAK TROUGH PASSAGES...THE
LATTER BEING ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS DRY BUT MAY
KICK UP THE BREEZES A BIT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY...AND BREEZY WINDS WILL ARRIVE ALONG AND BEHIND IT. THE
COOLEST TEMPS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS THE NE WILL LIKELY BE ON
SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD RAISING
TEMPS AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT SYSTEM REMAINS UP IN THE
AIR...NO PUN INTENDED...WITH REGARDS TO ITS STRENGTH AND TIMING. GFS
IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE GFS BRINGS A TROUGH ACROSS NM/CO
AROUND THURS AND THURS NIGHT WHEREAS THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE
TROUGH ACROSS UNTIL FRIDAY. REGARDLESS OF WHEN IT ARRIVES...IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING MORE WIND THAN PRECIP. AT THIS POINT...IT
APPEARS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR HIGH ELEVATION SNOW.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT DECENT SHOT AT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE UNTIL THURSDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL POOR VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE CASE TODAY
AND FRIDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO FAIR AND GOOD RATES SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE EAST. WIDESPREAD POOR RATES RETURN TUESDAY.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THEN GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SURFACE A COUPLE
OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE EAST. ONE SUCH FRONT
HAS MADE IT THROUGH NORTHEAST NM EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL MAKE
PROGRESS SOUTH THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL
THEN TRY TO PRESS TO THE SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
SOME COOLING IN THE EAST TODAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST.
STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE 16 DEGREES OF
COOLING FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY IN CLAYTON. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES
IN THE WEST WILL GENERALLY WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. GALLUP COULD SEE A RECORD HIGH TODAY. WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW MIXING HEIGHTS VENTILATION RATES WILL BE MOSTLY
POOR TODAY AND FRIDAY. A LITTLE STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS WILL HELP BOOST VENT RATES TO FAIR AND
GOOD LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND...FAVORING THE SOUTH AND EAST.

A BIT STRONGER FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER NM SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES. THIS FRONT
WILL ALSO BE DRY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN TO
OUR WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BE CENTERED OVER NM BY WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST DECENT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL NOT COME UNTIL AT LEAST
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COMES ASHORE. THAT
IS ACCORDING TO THE GFS. IF YOU PREFER THE ECMWF THEN IT WILL NOT BE
UNTIL FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK AS WELL BRINGING
BETTER VENT RATES.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 111233 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
533 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...248 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
YESTERDAY WAS QUITE WARM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A FEW AREAS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST SET RECORDS FOR THE DATE. THOUGH IT WILL NOT BE AS
WARM TODAY DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER BACK
DOOR FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...AND A SOMEWHAT STRONGER FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY. EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE NEXT WEEK AREAWIDE. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT LATE
NEXT WEEK NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE COULD SEE A LITTLE
PRECIPITATION WHILE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW IS CAUSING A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS N AND NE
NM THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THAT HAS JUST MOVE THRU KTCC AS OF THIS WRITING. AS
A RESULT...TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...BUT SINCE THERE IS NOT VERY MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS
FRONT...TEMPS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
MEANWHILE...TEMPS ACROSS THE WEST MAY ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND KGUP WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT BREAKING
ITS RECORD FOR THE DATE. ALL AREAS TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

THOUGH TODAYS FRONT WASHES OUT FAST TONIGHT...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE
ARRIVING ON FRIDAY. THIS ONE LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT
AGAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE UP TO A 10 DEGREE
COOLING ACROSS THE NE. RETURN FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME LOW CLOUDS TO FORM ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS ALONG THE TX BORDER. A REPEAT OF THIS MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS SAT NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING FOR A WEAK TROUGH TO CROSS THE ROCKIES AND
CLIP NE NM ON SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. STILL LOOKS TO BE A DRY PASSAGE.
GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO WEAK TROUGH PASSAGES...THE
LATTER BEING ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS DRY BUT MAY
KICK UP THE BREEZES A BIT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY...AND BREEZY WINDS WILL ARRIVE ALONG AND BEHIND IT. THE
COOLEST TEMPS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS THE NE WILL LIKELY BE ON
SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD RAISING
TEMPS AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT SYSTEM REMAINS UP IN THE
AIR...NO PUN INTENDED...WITH REGARDS TO ITS STRENGTH AND TIMING. GFS
IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE GFS BRINGS A TROUGH ACROSS NM/CO
AROUND THURS AND THURS NIGHT WHEREAS THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE
TROUGH ACROSS UNTIL FRIDAY. REGARDLESS OF WHEN IT ARRIVES...IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING MORE WIND THAN PRECIP. AT THIS POINT...IT
APPEARS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR HIGH ELEVATION SNOW.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT DECENT SHOT AT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE UNTIL THURSDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL POOR VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE CASE TODAY
AND FRIDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO FAIR AND GOOD RATES SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE EAST. WIDESPREAD POOR RATES RETURN TUESDAY.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THEN GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SURFACE A COUPLE
OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE EAST. ONE SUCH FRONT
HAS MADE IT THROUGH NORTHEAST NM EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL MAKE
PROGRESS SOUTH THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL
THEN TRY TO PRESS TO THE SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
SOME COOLING IN THE EAST TODAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST.
STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE 16 DEGREES OF
COOLING FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY IN CLAYTON. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES
IN THE WEST WILL GENERALLY WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. GALLUP COULD SEE A RECORD HIGH TODAY. WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW MIXING HEIGHTS VENTILATION RATES WILL BE MOSTLY
POOR TODAY AND FRIDAY. A LITTLE STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS WILL HELP BOOST VENT RATES TO FAIR AND
GOOD LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND...FAVORING THE SOUTH AND EAST.

A BIT STRONGER FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER NM SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES. THIS FRONT
WILL ALSO BE DRY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN TO
OUR WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BE CENTERED OVER NM BY WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST DECENT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL NOT COME UNTIL AT LEAST
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COMES ASHORE. THAT
IS ACCORDING TO THE GFS. IF YOU PREFER THE ECMWF THEN IT WILL NOT BE
UNTIL FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK AS WELL BRINGING
BETTER VENT RATES.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 111233 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
533 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL TAF SITES THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...248 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
YESTERDAY WAS QUITE WARM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A FEW AREAS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST SET RECORDS FOR THE DATE. THOUGH IT WILL NOT BE AS
WARM TODAY DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...TEMPERATURES ACROSS
ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER BACK
DOOR FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...AND A SOMEWHAT STRONGER FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY. EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE NEXT WEEK AREAWIDE. NO PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST
FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION THAT LATE
NEXT WEEK NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE COULD SEE A LITTLE
PRECIPITATION WHILE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW IS CAUSING A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS N AND NE
NM THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THAT HAS JUST MOVE THRU KTCC AS OF THIS WRITING. AS
A RESULT...TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...BUT SINCE THERE IS NOT VERY MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS
FRONT...TEMPS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
MEANWHILE...TEMPS ACROSS THE WEST MAY ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND KGUP WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT BREAKING
ITS RECORD FOR THE DATE. ALL AREAS TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

THOUGH TODAYS FRONT WASHES OUT FAST TONIGHT...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE
ARRIVING ON FRIDAY. THIS ONE LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT
AGAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE UP TO A 10 DEGREE
COOLING ACROSS THE NE. RETURN FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME LOW CLOUDS TO FORM ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS ALONG THE TX BORDER. A REPEAT OF THIS MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS SAT NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING FOR A WEAK TROUGH TO CROSS THE ROCKIES AND
CLIP NE NM ON SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. STILL LOOKS TO BE A DRY PASSAGE.
GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO WEAK TROUGH PASSAGES...THE
LATTER BEING ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS DRY BUT MAY
KICK UP THE BREEZES A BIT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY...AND BREEZY WINDS WILL ARRIVE ALONG AND BEHIND IT. THE
COOLEST TEMPS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS THE NE WILL LIKELY BE ON
SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD RAISING
TEMPS AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT SYSTEM REMAINS UP IN THE
AIR...NO PUN INTENDED...WITH REGARDS TO ITS STRENGTH AND TIMING. GFS
IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE GFS BRINGS A TROUGH ACROSS NM/CO
AROUND THURS AND THURS NIGHT WHEREAS THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE
TROUGH ACROSS UNTIL FRIDAY. REGARDLESS OF WHEN IT ARRIVES...IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING MORE WIND THAN PRECIP. AT THIS POINT...IT
APPEARS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR HIGH ELEVATION SNOW.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT DECENT SHOT AT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE UNTIL THURSDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL POOR VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE CASE TODAY
AND FRIDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO FAIR AND GOOD RATES SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE EAST. WIDESPREAD POOR RATES RETURN TUESDAY.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THEN GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SURFACE A COUPLE
OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE EAST. ONE SUCH FRONT
HAS MADE IT THROUGH NORTHEAST NM EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL MAKE
PROGRESS SOUTH THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL
THEN TRY TO PRESS TO THE SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
SOME COOLING IN THE EAST TODAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST.
STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE 16 DEGREES OF
COOLING FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY IN CLAYTON. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES
IN THE WEST WILL GENERALLY WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. GALLUP COULD SEE A RECORD HIGH TODAY. WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW MIXING HEIGHTS VENTILATION RATES WILL BE MOSTLY
POOR TODAY AND FRIDAY. A LITTLE STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS WILL HELP BOOST VENT RATES TO FAIR AND
GOOD LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND...FAVORING THE SOUTH AND EAST.

A BIT STRONGER FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER NM SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES. THIS FRONT
WILL ALSO BE DRY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN TO
OUR WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BE CENTERED OVER NM BY WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST DECENT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL NOT COME UNTIL AT LEAST
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COMES ASHORE. THAT
IS ACCORDING TO THE GFS. IF YOU PREFER THE ECMWF THEN IT WILL NOT BE
UNTIL FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK AS WELL BRINGING
BETTER VENT RATES.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 110948
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
248 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
YESTERDAY WAS QUITE WARM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A FEW AREAS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST SET RECORDS FOR THE DATE. THOUGH IT WILL NOT BE AS
WARM TODAY DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT... TEMPERATURES ACROSS
ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER BACK
DOOR FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...AND A SOMEWHAT STRONGER FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY. EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT WEEK AREAWIDE. NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT LATE NEXT WEEK NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE COULD SEE A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION WHILE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW IS CAUSING A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS N AND NE
NM THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THAT HAS JUST MOVE THRU KTCC AS OF THIS WRITING. AS
A RESULT...TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...BUT SINCE THERE IS NOT VERY MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS
FRONT...TEMPS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
MEANWHILE...TEMPS ACROSS THE WEST MAY ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND KGUP WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT BREAKING
ITS RECORD FOR THE DATE. ALL AREAS TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

THOUGH TODAYS FRONT WASHES OUT FAST TONIGHT...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE
ARRIVING ON FRIDAY. THIS ONE LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT
AGAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE UP TO A 10 DEGREE
COOLING ACROSS THE NE. RETURN FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME LOW CLOUDS TO FORM ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS ALONG THE TX BORDER. A REPEAT OF THIS MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS SAT NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING FOR A WEAK TROUGH TO CROSS THE ROCKIES AND
CLIP NE NM ON SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. STILL LOOKS TO BE A DRY PASSAGE.
GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO WEAK TROUGH PASSAGES...THE
LATTER BEING ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS DRY BUT MAY
KICK UP THE BREEZES A BIT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY...AND BREEZY WINDS WILL ARRIVE ALONG AND BEHIND IT. THE
COOLEST TEMPS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS THE NE WILL LIKELY BE ON
SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD RAISING
TEMPS AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT SYSTEM REMAINS UP IN THE
AIR...NO PUN INTENDED...WITH REGARDS TO ITS STRENGTH AND TIMING. GFS
IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE GFS BRINGS A TROUGH ACROSS NM/CO
AROUND THURS AND THURS NIGHT WHEREAS THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE
TROUGH ACROSS UNTIL FRIDAY. REGARDLESS OF WHEN IT ARRIVES...IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING MORE WIND THAN PRECIP. AT THIS POINT...IT
APPEARS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR HIGH ELEVATION SNOW.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT DECENT SHOT AT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE UNTIL THURSDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL POOR VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE CASE TODAY
AND FRIDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO FAIR AND GOOD RATES SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE EAST. WIDESPREAD POOR RATES RETURN TUESDAY.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THEN GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SURFACE A COUPLE
OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE EAST. ONE SUCH FRONT
HAS MADE IT THROUGH NORTHEAST NM EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL MAKE
PROGRESS SOUTH THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL
THEN TRY TO PRESS TO THE SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
SOME COOLING IN THE EAST TODAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST.
STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE 16 DEGREES OF
COOLING FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY IN CLAYTON. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES
IN THE WEST WILL GENERALLY WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. GALLUP COULD SEE A RECORD HIGH TODAY. WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW MIXING HEIGHTS VENTILATION RATES WILL BE MOSTLY
POOR TODAY AND FRIDAY. A LITTLE STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS WILL HELP BOOST VENT RATES TO FAIR AND
GOOD LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND...FAVORING THE SOUTH AND EAST.

A BIT STRONGER FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER NM SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES. THIS FRONT
WILL ALSO BE DRY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN TO
OUR WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BE CENTERED OVER NM BY WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST DECENT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL NOT COME UNTIL AT LEAST
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COMES ASHORE. THAT
IS ACCORDING TO THE GFS. IF YOU PREFER THE ECMWF THEN IT WILL NOT BE
UNTIL FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK AS WELL BRINGING
BETTER VENT RATES.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A SLIGHTLY WEAKENED BUT STILL ROBUST UPPER RIDGE REMAINS SPRAWLED
FROM BAJA CA NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN KEEPING A LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NW FLOW OVR NM. WEAK SFC WIND SHIFT TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT...
BRINGING A MOSTLY LIGHT N-NW WIND TO NE AND EAST CENTRAL NM
STARTING BETWEEN 11/06Z AND 11/12Z. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION WX CONCERNS AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AND
BEYOND THE FCST PERIOD. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  55  23  58  24 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  53  17  56  16 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  55  25  58  24 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  63  16  66  18 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  60  17  64  18 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  65  15  67  16 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  62  25  65  25 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  71  25  72  25 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  52  20  54  19 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  34  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  57  33  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  16  52  18 /   0   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  49   9  50  12 /   0   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  50   1  51   7 /   0   0   0   0
TAOS............................  54  18  54  19 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  59  27  59  25 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  64  26  65  26 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  59  31  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  29  62  27 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  64  35  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  33  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  66  28  70  30 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  31  69  31 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  67  24  70  28 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  65  32  69  33 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  69  31  71  32 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  33  64  33 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  62  34  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  63  20  67  25 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  29  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  63  32  67  32 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  67  33  70  34 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  64  36  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  64  26  59  26 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................  66  24  62  22 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  68  24  64  23 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  64  29  63  28 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  68  32  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  66  30  60  27 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  70  33  67  31 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  71  35  67  31 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  70  29  68  30 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  67  33  69  31 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  68  32  70  30 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  70  34  69  33 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  74  30  73  32 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  71  35  72  33 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  68  34  69  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

34



000
FXUS65 KABQ 110948
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
248 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
YESTERDAY WAS QUITE WARM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A FEW AREAS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST SET RECORDS FOR THE DATE. THOUGH IT WILL NOT BE AS
WARM TODAY DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT... TEMPERATURES ACROSS
ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER BACK
DOOR FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...AND A SOMEWHAT STRONGER FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY. EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT WEEK AREAWIDE. NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT LATE NEXT WEEK NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE COULD SEE A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION WHILE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW IS CAUSING A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS N AND NE
NM THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THAT HAS JUST MOVE THRU KTCC AS OF THIS WRITING. AS
A RESULT...TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...BUT SINCE THERE IS NOT VERY MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS
FRONT...TEMPS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
MEANWHILE...TEMPS ACROSS THE WEST MAY ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND KGUP WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT BREAKING
ITS RECORD FOR THE DATE. ALL AREAS TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

THOUGH TODAYS FRONT WASHES OUT FAST TONIGHT...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE
ARRIVING ON FRIDAY. THIS ONE LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT
AGAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE UP TO A 10 DEGREE
COOLING ACROSS THE NE. RETURN FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME LOW CLOUDS TO FORM ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS ALONG THE TX BORDER. A REPEAT OF THIS MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS SAT NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING FOR A WEAK TROUGH TO CROSS THE ROCKIES AND
CLIP NE NM ON SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. STILL LOOKS TO BE A DRY PASSAGE.
GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO WEAK TROUGH PASSAGES...THE
LATTER BEING ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS DRY BUT MAY
KICK UP THE BREEZES A BIT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY...AND BREEZY WINDS WILL ARRIVE ALONG AND BEHIND IT. THE
COOLEST TEMPS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS THE NE WILL LIKELY BE ON
SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD RAISING
TEMPS AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT SYSTEM REMAINS UP IN THE
AIR...NO PUN INTENDED...WITH REGARDS TO ITS STRENGTH AND TIMING. GFS
IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE GFS BRINGS A TROUGH ACROSS NM/CO
AROUND THURS AND THURS NIGHT WHEREAS THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE
TROUGH ACROSS UNTIL FRIDAY. REGARDLESS OF WHEN IT ARRIVES...IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING MORE WIND THAN PRECIP. AT THIS POINT...IT
APPEARS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR HIGH ELEVATION SNOW.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT DECENT SHOT AT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE UNTIL THURSDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL POOR VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE CASE TODAY
AND FRIDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO FAIR AND GOOD RATES SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE EAST. WIDESPREAD POOR RATES RETURN TUESDAY.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THEN GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SURFACE A COUPLE
OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE EAST. ONE SUCH FRONT
HAS MADE IT THROUGH NORTHEAST NM EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL MAKE
PROGRESS SOUTH THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL
THEN TRY TO PRESS TO THE SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
SOME COOLING IN THE EAST TODAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST.
STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE 16 DEGREES OF
COOLING FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY IN CLAYTON. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES
IN THE WEST WILL GENERALLY WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. GALLUP COULD SEE A RECORD HIGH TODAY. WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW MIXING HEIGHTS VENTILATION RATES WILL BE MOSTLY
POOR TODAY AND FRIDAY. A LITTLE STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS WILL HELP BOOST VENT RATES TO FAIR AND
GOOD LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND...FAVORING THE SOUTH AND EAST.

A BIT STRONGER FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER NM SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES. THIS FRONT
WILL ALSO BE DRY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN TO
OUR WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BE CENTERED OVER NM BY WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST DECENT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL NOT COME UNTIL AT LEAST
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COMES ASHORE. THAT
IS ACCORDING TO THE GFS. IF YOU PREFER THE ECMWF THEN IT WILL NOT BE
UNTIL FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK AS WELL BRINGING
BETTER VENT RATES.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A SLIGHTLY WEAKENED BUT STILL ROBUST UPPER RIDGE REMAINS SPRAWLED
FROM BAJA CA NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN KEEPING A LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NW FLOW OVR NM. WEAK SFC WIND SHIFT TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT...
BRINGING A MOSTLY LIGHT N-NW WIND TO NE AND EAST CENTRAL NM
STARTING BETWEEN 11/06Z AND 11/12Z. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION WX CONCERNS AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AND
BEYOND THE FCST PERIOD. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  55  23  58  24 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  53  17  56  16 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  55  25  58  24 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  63  16  66  18 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  60  17  64  18 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  65  15  67  16 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  62  25  65  25 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  71  25  72  25 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  52  20  54  19 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  34  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  57  33  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  16  52  18 /   0   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  49   9  50  12 /   0   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  50   1  51   7 /   0   0   0   0
TAOS............................  54  18  54  19 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  59  27  59  25 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  64  26  65  26 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  59  31  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  29  62  27 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  64  35  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  33  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  66  28  70  30 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  31  69  31 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  67  24  70  28 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  65  32  69  33 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  69  31  71  32 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  33  64  33 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  62  34  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  63  20  67  25 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  29  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  63  32  67  32 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  67  33  70  34 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  64  36  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  64  26  59  26 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................  66  24  62  22 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  68  24  64  23 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  64  29  63  28 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  68  32  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  66  30  60  27 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  70  33  67  31 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  71  35  67  31 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  70  29  68  30 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  67  33  69  31 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  68  32  70  30 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  70  34  69  33 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  74  30  73  32 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  71  35  72  33 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  68  34  69  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

34




000
FXUS65 KABQ 110948
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
248 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
YESTERDAY WAS QUITE WARM ACROSS THE PLAINS AND A FEW AREAS ACROSS
THE NORTHEAST SET RECORDS FOR THE DATE. THOUGH IT WILL NOT BE AS
WARM TODAY DUE TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT... TEMPERATURES ACROSS
ALL AREAS WILL REMAIN 5 TO 20 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. ANOTHER BACK
DOOR FRONT WILL ARRIVE ON FRIDAY...AND A SOMEWHAT STRONGER FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY. EVEN SO...TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE NEXT WEEK AREAWIDE. NO PRECIPITATION IS
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS...THOUGH THERE IS SOME INDICATION
THAT LATE NEXT WEEK NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE COULD SEE A
LITTLE PRECIPITATION WHILE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK DISTURBANCE IN NW FLOW IS CAUSING A FEW CLOUDS ACROSS N AND NE
NM THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...MAIN FEATURE TODAY WILL BE THE BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT THAT HAS JUST MOVE THRU KTCC AS OF THIS WRITING. AS
A RESULT...TEMPS WILL NOT BE QUITE AS HOT AS YESTERDAY ACROSS THE
PLAINS...BUT SINCE THERE IS NOT VERY MUCH COLD AIR BEHIND THIS
FRONT...TEMPS STILL LOOK TO REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL.
MEANWHILE...TEMPS ACROSS THE WEST MAY ACTUALLY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY AND KGUP WILL HAVE A GOOD CHANCE AT BREAKING
ITS RECORD FOR THE DATE. ALL AREAS TODAY WILL BE 5 TO 20 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL.

THOUGH TODAYS FRONT WASHES OUT FAST TONIGHT...ANOTHER FRONT WILL BE
ARRIVING ON FRIDAY. THIS ONE LOOKS TO BE SLIGHTLY COOLER...BUT
AGAIN...TEMPS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE UP TO A 10 DEGREE
COOLING ACROSS THE NE. RETURN FLOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT MAY CAUSE SOME LOW CLOUDS TO FORM ACROSS
THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS ALONG THE TX BORDER. A REPEAT OF THIS MAY
OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR SE PLAINS SAT NIGHT.

OTHERWISE...STILL LOOKING FOR A WEAK TROUGH TO CROSS THE ROCKIES AND
CLIP NE NM ON SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY. STILL LOOKS TO BE A DRY PASSAGE.
GFS IS INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR TWO WEAK TROUGH PASSAGES...THE
LATTER BEING ON SUNDAY NIGHT.  REGARDLESS...IT LOOKS DRY BUT MAY
KICK UP THE BREEZES A BIT. A MORE SUBSTANTIAL FRONT WILL ARRIVE
ON SUNDAY...AND BREEZY WINDS WILL ARRIVE ALONG AND BEHIND IT. THE
COOLEST TEMPS OF THE NEXT 7 DAYS ACROSS THE NE WILL LIKELY BE ON
SUNDAY.

THE RIDGE WILL SLOWLY BUILD IN THROUGH THE MID WEEK PERIOD RAISING
TEMPS AREAWIDE ONCE AGAIN. THE NEXT SYSTEM REMAINS UP IN THE
AIR...NO PUN INTENDED...WITH REGARDS TO ITS STRENGTH AND TIMING. GFS
IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. THE GFS BRINGS A TROUGH ACROSS NM/CO
AROUND THURS AND THURS NIGHT WHEREAS THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE
TROUGH ACROSS UNTIL FRIDAY. REGARDLESS OF WHEN IT ARRIVES...IT
LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING MORE WIND THAN PRECIP. AT THIS POINT...IT
APPEARS THE FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE WILL HAVE THE BEST
SHOT AT SEEING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR HIGH ELEVATION SNOW.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
THE NEXT DECENT SHOT AT ANY PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE UNTIL THURSDAY
OF NEXT WEEK. OVERALL POOR VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE CASE TODAY
AND FRIDAY. SOME IMPROVEMENT TO FAIR AND GOOD RATES SATURDAY THROUGH
MONDAY...MAINLY IN THE EAST. WIDESPREAD POOR RATES RETURN TUESDAY.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR WEST WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST
THEN GET SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES PASS TO OUR NORTH. AT THE SURFACE A COUPLE
OF BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE EAST. ONE SUCH FRONT
HAS MADE IT THROUGH NORTHEAST NM EARLY THIS MORNING. IT WILL MAKE
PROGRESS SOUTH THIS MORNING BEFORE STALLING THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL
THEN TRY TO PRESS TO THE SOUTH AGAIN TONIGHT. MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
SOME COOLING IN THE EAST TODAY AND FRIDAY...MAINLY IN THE NORTHEAST.
STILL...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE 16 DEGREES OF
COOLING FROM WEDNESDAY TO FRIDAY IN CLAYTON. MEANWHILE TEMPERATURES
IN THE WEST WILL GENERALLY WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. GALLUP COULD SEE A RECORD HIGH TODAY. WITH GENERALLY
LIGHT WINDS AND LOW MIXING HEIGHTS VENTILATION RATES WILL BE MOSTLY
POOR TODAY AND FRIDAY. A LITTLE STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
AND HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS WILL HELP BOOST VENT RATES TO FAIR AND
GOOD LEVELS OVER THE WEEKEND...FAVORING THE SOUTH AND EAST.

A BIT STRONGER FRONT IS STILL SLATED TO SLIDE SOUTH OVER NM SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY NIGHT. MOST AREAS WILL COOL SEVERAL DEGREES. THIS FRONT
WILL ALSO BE DRY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD AGAIN TO
OUR WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND BE CENTERED OVER NM BY WEDNESDAY. THE
FIRST DECENT SHOT AT SOME PRECIPITATION WILL NOT COME UNTIL AT LEAST
THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE COMES ASHORE. THAT
IS ACCORDING TO THE GFS. IF YOU PREFER THE ECMWF THEN IT WILL NOT BE
UNTIL FRIDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE LATER IN THE WEEK AS WELL BRINGING
BETTER VENT RATES.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A SLIGHTLY WEAKENED BUT STILL ROBUST UPPER RIDGE REMAINS SPRAWLED
FROM BAJA CA NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN KEEPING A LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NW FLOW OVR NM. WEAK SFC WIND SHIFT TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT...
BRINGING A MOSTLY LIGHT N-NW WIND TO NE AND EAST CENTRAL NM
STARTING BETWEEN 11/06Z AND 11/12Z. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION WX CONCERNS AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AND
BEYOND THE FCST PERIOD. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  55  23  58  24 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  53  17  56  16 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  55  25  58  24 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  63  16  66  18 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  60  17  64  18 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  65  15  67  16 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  62  25  65  25 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  71  25  72  25 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  52  20  54  19 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  34  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  57  33  59  31 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  16  52  18 /   0   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  49   9  50  12 /   0   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  50   1  51   7 /   0   0   0   0
TAOS............................  54  18  54  19 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  59  27  59  25 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  64  26  65  26 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  59  31  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  29  62  27 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  64  35  67  35 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  33  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  66  28  70  30 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  31  69  31 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  67  24  70  28 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  65  32  69  33 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  69  31  71  32 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  33  64  33 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  62  34  66  33 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  63  20  67  25 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  29  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  63  32  67  32 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  67  33  70  34 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  64  36  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  64  26  59  26 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................  66  24  62  22 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  68  24  64  23 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  64  29  63  28 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  68  32  61  28 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  66  30  60  27 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  70  33  67  31 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  71  35  67  31 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  70  29  68  30 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  67  33  69  31 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  68  32  70  30 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  70  34  69  33 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  74  30  73  32 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  71  35  72  33 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  68  34  69  32 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

34




000
FXUS65 KABQ 110533 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1033 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A SLIGHTLY WEAKENED BUT STILL ROBUST UPPER RIDGE REMAINS SPRAWLED
FROM BAJA CA NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN KEEPING A LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NW FLOW OVR NM. WEAK SFC WIND SHIFT TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT...
BRINGING A MOSTLY LIGHT N-NW WIND TO NE AND EAST CENTRAL NM
STARTING BETWEEN 11/06Z AND 11/12Z. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION WX CONCERNS AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AND
BEYOND THE FCST PERIOD.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...253 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...SUNNY DAYS AND STARRY
NIGHTS WILL PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A BRIEF COOL-DOWN
IS FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY THANKS TO A WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL RESUME
A WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NO
PRECIPITATION FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE UNDER SUNNY SKIES...WITH A
NEW DAILY RECORD HIGH OF 77 DEGREES SET AT CLAYTON (OLD 76/1972).
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
OVERNIGHT AND RESULT IN HIGHS THURSDAY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
TODAY`S...BUT STILL 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER HIGH IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY 12Z FRIDAY...
WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS WHERE ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME COOLING. OUR
FORECAST HIGHS ARE GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE HIGHER 12Z ECMWF MOS.
FRIDAY`S BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IS
MODELED BY THE 18Z NAM12 TO NUDGE WESTWARD FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE A LITTLE COOLING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS GOING INTO SATURDAY...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A SHORT-LIVED COOLING
TREND GOING THROUGH MONDAY. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS. INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED
WITH MORE RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE DEPARTING TROUGH AND LEAD
TO A RENEWED WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND WEST COAST TROUGHING
ALLOWS FOR SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION. TIME WILL TELL.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
POOR VENTILATION RATES WILL RULE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SOME
SPOTTY FAIR TO GOOD RATES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OVERALL POOR
RATES RETURN TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ENTRENCHED TO OUR WEST WILL BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER
THE WEEKEND MAKE AN ATTEMPT. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE FOR A COUPLE OF
WEAK FRONTS...WHICH BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM THEIR
LOFTY DEVIATIONS FROM AVERAGE. OTHERWISE...SOME HINT OF RETURN FLOW
WITH THE FRONTS...SO SOME SWINGS IN MAX RH ACROSS MAINLY THE EAST
ALONG AND EAST OF THE PECOS VALLEY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH HAINES FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EAST
AND SOUTH THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME MIN HUMIDITIES
OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS...BUT WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. MOUNTAIN TOP NW
WINDS DO INCREASE SATURDAY AND MORESO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AS THE
STRONGER DISTURBANCE TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...BUT NOT
SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE CRITICAL CONDITIONS OR BOOST VENT RATES INTO
WIDESPREAD GOOD OR BETTER VALUES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REORGANIZE OVER NEW MEXICO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...CONTINUING THE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM PATTERN. WINDS MAY
INCREASE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A COUPLE OF
POTENTIALLY WETTER DISTURBANCES. HOWEVER...IT/S TOO SOON TO HAVE
MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT FAR OUT.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 110533 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1033 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A SLIGHTLY WEAKENED BUT STILL ROBUST UPPER RIDGE REMAINS SPRAWLED
FROM BAJA CA NORTH INTO THE WESTERN GREAT BASIN KEEPING A LIGHT
TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE NW FLOW OVR NM. WEAK SFC WIND SHIFT TO
DROP SOUTH ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT...
BRINGING A MOSTLY LIGHT N-NW WIND TO NE AND EAST CENTRAL NM
STARTING BETWEEN 11/06Z AND 11/12Z. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT
AVIATION WX CONCERNS AND VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH AND
BEYOND THE FCST PERIOD.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...253 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS...ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...SUNNY DAYS AND STARRY
NIGHTS WILL PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. A BRIEF COOL-DOWN
IS FORECAST SUNDAY AND MONDAY THANKS TO A WEAK COLD FRONT...BUT
TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURES WILL RESUME
A WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NO
PRECIPITATION FORECAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE UNDER SUNNY SKIES...WITH A
NEW DAILY RECORD HIGH OF 77 DEGREES SET AT CLAYTON (OLD 76/1972).
A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
OVERNIGHT AND RESULT IN HIGHS THURSDAY 5-10 DEGREES BELOW
TODAY`S...BUT STILL 10-15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER HIGH IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT EAST OVER SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY 12Z FRIDAY...
WITH THE WARMING TREND CONTINUING FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST
PLAINS WHERE ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROVIDE SOME COOLING. OUR
FORECAST HIGHS ARE GENERALLY CLOSER TO THE HIGHER 12Z ECMWF MOS.
FRIDAY`S BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS IS
MODELED BY THE 18Z NAM12 TO NUDGE WESTWARD FROM THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE FRIDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE A LITTLE COOLING FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE PLAINS GOING INTO SATURDAY...BUT WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE ROCKIES
LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AND WILL PUSH A WEAK COLD
FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA SUNDAY...RESULTING IN A SHORT-LIVED COOLING
TREND GOING THROUGH MONDAY. THAT SAID...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS. INCREASING PRESSURE HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED
WITH MORE RIDGING ALOFT WILL FOLLOW THE DEPARTING TROUGH AND LEAD
TO A RENEWED WARMING TREND GOING INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. NO
PRECIPITATION IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK...BUT
BOTH THE 12Z GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING SOME POTENTIAL FOR LATE
NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST AND WEST COAST TROUGHING
ALLOWS FOR SOME MOISTURE ADVECTION. TIME WILL TELL.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
POOR VENTILATION RATES WILL RULE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...WITH SOME
SPOTTY FAIR TO GOOD RATES SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY. OVERALL POOR
RATES RETURN TUESDAY.

HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ENTRENCHED TO OUR WEST WILL BE TOUGH TO
DISLODGE...ALTHOUGH A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES LATE THIS WEEK AND OVER
THE WEEKEND MAKE AN ATTEMPT. THE MAIN EFFECT WILL BE FOR A COUPLE OF
WEAK FRONTS...WHICH BUMP TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES FROM THEIR
LOFTY DEVIATIONS FROM AVERAGE. OTHERWISE...SOME HINT OF RETURN FLOW
WITH THE FRONTS...SO SOME SWINGS IN MAX RH ACROSS MAINLY THE EAST
ALONG AND EAST OF THE PECOS VALLEY FROM THURSDAY NIGHT TO FRIDAY
NIGHT AND SATURDAY NIGHT. HIGH HAINES FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE EAST
AND SOUTH THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY ALONG WITH SOME MIN HUMIDITIES
OF 15 PERCENT OR LESS...BUT WINDS GENERALLY LIGHT. MOUNTAIN TOP NW
WINDS DO INCREASE SATURDAY AND MORESO SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY AS THE
STRONGER DISTURBANCE TRACKS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...BUT NOT
SUFFICIENTLY TO PRODUCE CRITICAL CONDITIONS OR BOOST VENT RATES INTO
WIDESPREAD GOOD OR BETTER VALUES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REORGANIZE OVER NEW MEXICO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...CONTINUING THE DRY AND UNSEASONABLY WARM PATTERN. WINDS MAY
INCREASE MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...IN ADVANCE OF A COUPLE OF
POTENTIALLY WETTER DISTURBANCES. HOWEVER...IT/S TOO SOON TO HAVE
MUCH CONFIDENCE THAT FAR OUT.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



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