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000
FXUS65 KABQ 250529 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1129 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AND PREVAILING WINDS CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN SPEED AFTER WINDY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED THIS PAST
AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...AND CLOUD BASES MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KGUP...KGNT...AND PERHAPS
KSKX. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KFMN...BUT THE
TAF DOES REFLECT SOME POTENTIAL. BREEZES WILL BE MODERATE TO
STRONG SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A REINTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS
VERY BY THE EVENING IN FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...540 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.UPDATE...
SPREAD LOW PROBABILITY POPS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...RUC13 AND HRRR. POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL AFTER
MIDNIGHT BASED ON ABOVE MODELS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW. UPDATED
ZFP ALREADY RELEASED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 250529 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1129 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AND PREVAILING WINDS CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN SPEED AFTER WINDY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED THIS PAST
AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...AND CLOUD BASES MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KGUP...KGNT...AND PERHAPS
KSKX. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KFMN...BUT THE
TAF DOES REFLECT SOME POTENTIAL. BREEZES WILL BE MODERATE TO
STRONG SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A REINTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS
VERY BY THE EVENING IN FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...540 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.UPDATE...
SPREAD LOW PROBABILITY POPS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...RUC13 AND HRRR. POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL AFTER
MIDNIGHT BASED ON ABOVE MODELS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW. UPDATED
ZFP ALREADY RELEASED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 250529 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1129 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AND PREVAILING WINDS CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN SPEED AFTER WINDY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED THIS PAST
AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...AND CLOUD BASES MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KGUP...KGNT...AND PERHAPS
KSKX. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KFMN...BUT THE
TAF DOES REFLECT SOME POTENTIAL. BREEZES WILL BE MODERATE TO
STRONG SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A REINTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS
VERY BY THE EVENING IN FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...540 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.UPDATE...
SPREAD LOW PROBABILITY POPS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...RUC13 AND HRRR. POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL AFTER
MIDNIGHT BASED ON ABOVE MODELS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW. UPDATED
ZFP ALREADY RELEASED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 250529 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1129 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AND PREVAILING WINDS CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN SPEED AFTER WINDY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED THIS PAST
AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...AND CLOUD BASES MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KGUP...KGNT...AND PERHAPS
KSKX. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KFMN...BUT THE
TAF DOES REFLECT SOME POTENTIAL. BREEZES WILL BE MODERATE TO
STRONG SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A REINTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS
VERY BY THE EVENING IN FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...540 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.UPDATE...
SPREAD LOW PROBABILITY POPS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...RUC13 AND HRRR. POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL AFTER
MIDNIGHT BASED ON ABOVE MODELS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW. UPDATED
ZFP ALREADY RELEASED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 250529 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1129 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED ACROSS NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AND PREVAILING WINDS CONTINUE TO
DECREASE IN SPEED AFTER WINDY CONDITIONS WERE OBSERVED THIS PAST
AFTERNOON. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...AND CLOUD BASES MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KGUP...KGNT...AND PERHAPS
KSKX. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KFMN...BUT THE
TAF DOES REFLECT SOME POTENTIAL. BREEZES WILL BE MODERATE TO
STRONG SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A REINTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS
VERY BY THE EVENING IN FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...540 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.UPDATE...
SPREAD LOW PROBABILITY POPS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...RUC13 AND HRRR. POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL AFTER
MIDNIGHT BASED ON ABOVE MODELS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW. UPDATED
ZFP ALREADY RELEASED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 242353 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
553 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
EVENING. MOST...BUT NOT ALL...OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
DECREASE IN SPEED AFTER A WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...AND CLOUD BASES MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KGUP...KGNT...AND PERHAPS
KSKX. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KFMN...AND THE
TAF IS REFLECTIVE OF THIS. BREEZES WILL BE MODERATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A REINTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON IN FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...540 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.UPDATE...
SPREAD LOW PROBABILITY POPS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...RUC13 AND HRRR. POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL AFTER
MIDNIGHT BASED ON ABOVE MODELS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW. UPDATED
ZFP ALREADY RELEASED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 242353 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
553 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
EVENING. MOST...BUT NOT ALL...OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
DECREASE IN SPEED AFTER A WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...AND CLOUD BASES MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KGUP...KGNT...AND PERHAPS
KSKX. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KFMN...AND THE
TAF IS REFLECTIVE OF THIS. BREEZES WILL BE MODERATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A REINTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON IN FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...540 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.UPDATE...
SPREAD LOW PROBABILITY POPS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...RUC13 AND HRRR. POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL AFTER
MIDNIGHT BASED ON ABOVE MODELS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW. UPDATED
ZFP ALREADY RELEASED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 242353 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
553 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
EVENING. MOST...BUT NOT ALL...OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
DECREASE IN SPEED AFTER A WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...AND CLOUD BASES MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KGUP...KGNT...AND PERHAPS
KSKX. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KFMN...AND THE
TAF IS REFLECTIVE OF THIS. BREEZES WILL BE MODERATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A REINTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON IN FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...540 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.UPDATE...
SPREAD LOW PROBABILITY POPS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...RUC13 AND HRRR. POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL AFTER
MIDNIGHT BASED ON ABOVE MODELS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW. UPDATED
ZFP ALREADY RELEASED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 242353 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
553 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
EVENING. MOST...BUT NOT ALL...OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
DECREASE IN SPEED AFTER A WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...AND CLOUD BASES MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KGUP...KGNT...AND PERHAPS
KSKX. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KFMN...AND THE
TAF IS REFLECTIVE OF THIS. BREEZES WILL BE MODERATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A REINTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON IN FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...540 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.UPDATE...
SPREAD LOW PROBABILITY POPS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...RUC13 AND HRRR. POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL AFTER
MIDNIGHT BASED ON ABOVE MODELS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW. UPDATED
ZFP ALREADY RELEASED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 242353 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
553 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
EVENING. MOST...BUT NOT ALL...OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
DECREASE IN SPEED AFTER A WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...AND CLOUD BASES MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KGUP...KGNT...AND PERHAPS
KSKX. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KFMN...AND THE
TAF IS REFLECTIVE OF THIS. BREEZES WILL BE MODERATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A REINTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON IN FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...540 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.UPDATE...
SPREAD LOW PROBABILITY POPS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...RUC13 AND HRRR. POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL AFTER
MIDNIGHT BASED ON ABOVE MODELS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW. UPDATED
ZFP ALREADY RELEASED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 242353 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
553 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SCATTERED ACROSS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN...CENTRAL...AND NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS
EVENING. MOST...BUT NOT ALL...OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DISSIPATE
SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET...AND PREVAILING WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
DECREASE IN SPEED AFTER A WINDY DAY...ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN NEW
MEXICO. SOME CLOUDS WILL LINGER OVERNIGHT...AND CLOUD BASES MAY
ACTUALLY LOWER AND BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE STATE. AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
ARE POSSIBLE...POTENTIALLY IMPACTING KGUP...KGNT...AND PERHAPS
KSKX. NOT AS MUCH CONFIDENCE IN MVFR CONDITIONS AT KFMN...AND THE
TAF IS REFLECTIVE OF THIS. BREEZES WILL BE MODERATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A REINTRODUCTION OF SHOWERS/STORMS VERY LATE IN THE
AFTERNOON IN FAR NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...540 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.UPDATE...
SPREAD LOW PROBABILITY POPS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...RUC13 AND HRRR. POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL AFTER
MIDNIGHT BASED ON ABOVE MODELS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW. UPDATED
ZFP ALREADY RELEASED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 242340
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
540 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
SPREAD LOW PROBABILITY POPS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...RUC13 AND HRRR. POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL AFTER
MIDNIGHT BASED ON ABOVE MODELS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW. UPDATED
ZFP ALREADY RELEASED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA WITH TS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
THIS AFTN...EXCEPT FOR KROW. GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR SITES NEAR SHRA
& TS ACTIVITY. STRONG SW TO W WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER AVIATION
IMPACT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. KLVS...KTCC &
KROW WILL SEE ADVISORY WINDS SPEEDS THIS AFTN BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 242340
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
540 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
SPREAD LOW PROBABILITY POPS OVER THE MAJORITY OF THE CWA FOR THIS
EVENING BASED ON RADAR TRENDS...RUC13 AND HRRR. POTENTIAL FOR
PRECIPITATION TO CONTINUE OVER THE NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL AFTER
MIDNIGHT BASED ON ABOVE MODELS. NO OTHER CHANGES FOR NOW. UPDATED
ZFP ALREADY RELEASED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA WITH TS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
THIS AFTN...EXCEPT FOR KROW. GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR SITES NEAR SHRA
& TS ACTIVITY. STRONG SW TO W WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER AVIATION
IMPACT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. KLVS...KTCC &
KROW WILL SEE ADVISORY WINDS SPEEDS THIS AFTN BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 242146
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA WITH TS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
THIS AFTN...EXCEPT FOR KROW. GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR SITES NEAR SHRA
& TS ACTIVITY. STRONG SW TO W WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER AVIATION
IMPACT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. KLVS...KTCC &
KROW WILL SEE ADVISORY WINDS SPEEDS THIS AFTN BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  41  65  39 /  20  10  20  30
DULCE...........................  58  32  59  31 /  30  10  30  40
CUBA............................  57  33  62  34 /  40  10  20  20
GALLUP..........................  60  31  62  33 /  40  10  20  20
EL MORRO........................  53  31  58  33 /  40  10  10  20
GRANTS..........................  58  29  63  31 /  30  10   5  20
QUEMADO.........................  53  33  60  35 /  40   5  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  65  39  70  39 /  30   5   0  10
CHAMA...........................  55  29  57  29 /  40  10  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  39  60  41 /  60  10  20  10
PECOS...........................  55  37  60  38 /  50  10   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  57  28  62  28 /  30  10  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  48  29  52  28 /  50  10  20  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  51  26  55  24 /  40  10  10  10
TAOS............................  56  31  61  31 /  30  10  10  10
MORA............................  54  37  61  36 /  30  10   5  10
ESPANOLA........................  61  41  65  42 /  30   5  10   5
SANTA FE........................  55  38  61  40 /  60  10   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  35  65  37 /  60  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  61  43  67  46 /  70  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  63  41  69  46 /  60   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  38  71  42 /  60   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  40  71  44 /  60   5   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  67  37  74  42 /  60   5   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  63  42  70  46 /  60   5   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  69  41  75  45 /  50   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  36  63  38 /  60  10   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  59  35  65  37 /  70  10   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  62  30  65  32 /  50  10   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  60  34  64  36 /  50  10   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  62  38  66  39 /  60  10   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  66  42  71  45 /  40   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  62  38  66  41 /  60   5   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  60  38  66  40 /  20   5   5   5
RATON...........................  64  35  70  35 /  20   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  64  38  70  38 /  20   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  62  37  66  36 /  30   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  73  46  77  45 /  20   0   0   0
ROY.............................  66  39  71  41 /  20   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  73  47  77  46 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  72  47  75  43 /  20   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  79  47  81  45 /  10   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  78  46  78  45 /   5   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  79  48  78  47 /   5   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  76  47  78  47 /  10   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  79  47  82  47 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  70  44  73  47 /  20   0   0   0
ELK.............................  63  41  67  45 /  20   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$

43





000
FXUS65 KABQ 242146
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA WITH TS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
THIS AFTN...EXCEPT FOR KROW. GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR SITES NEAR SHRA
& TS ACTIVITY. STRONG SW TO W WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER AVIATION
IMPACT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. KLVS...KTCC &
KROW WILL SEE ADVISORY WINDS SPEEDS THIS AFTN BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  41  65  39 /  20  10  20  30
DULCE...........................  58  32  59  31 /  30  10  30  40
CUBA............................  57  33  62  34 /  40  10  20  20
GALLUP..........................  60  31  62  33 /  40  10  20  20
EL MORRO........................  53  31  58  33 /  40  10  10  20
GRANTS..........................  58  29  63  31 /  30  10   5  20
QUEMADO.........................  53  33  60  35 /  40   5  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  65  39  70  39 /  30   5   0  10
CHAMA...........................  55  29  57  29 /  40  10  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  39  60  41 /  60  10  20  10
PECOS...........................  55  37  60  38 /  50  10   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  57  28  62  28 /  30  10  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  48  29  52  28 /  50  10  20  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  51  26  55  24 /  40  10  10  10
TAOS............................  56  31  61  31 /  30  10  10  10
MORA............................  54  37  61  36 /  30  10   5  10
ESPANOLA........................  61  41  65  42 /  30   5  10   5
SANTA FE........................  55  38  61  40 /  60  10   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  35  65  37 /  60  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  61  43  67  46 /  70  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  63  41  69  46 /  60   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  38  71  42 /  60   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  40  71  44 /  60   5   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  67  37  74  42 /  60   5   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  63  42  70  46 /  60   5   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  69  41  75  45 /  50   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  36  63  38 /  60  10   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  59  35  65  37 /  70  10   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  62  30  65  32 /  50  10   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  60  34  64  36 /  50  10   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  62  38  66  39 /  60  10   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  66  42  71  45 /  40   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  62  38  66  41 /  60   5   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  60  38  66  40 /  20   5   5   5
RATON...........................  64  35  70  35 /  20   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  64  38  70  38 /  20   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  62  37  66  36 /  30   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  73  46  77  45 /  20   0   0   0
ROY.............................  66  39  71  41 /  20   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  73  47  77  46 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  72  47  75  43 /  20   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  79  47  81  45 /  10   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  78  46  78  45 /   5   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  79  48  78  47 /   5   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  76  47  78  47 /  10   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  79  47  82  47 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  70  44  73  47 /  20   0   0   0
ELK.............................  63  41  67  45 /  20   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$

43






000
FXUS65 KABQ 242146
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA WITH TS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
THIS AFTN...EXCEPT FOR KROW. GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR SITES NEAR SHRA
& TS ACTIVITY. STRONG SW TO W WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER AVIATION
IMPACT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. KLVS...KTCC &
KROW WILL SEE ADVISORY WINDS SPEEDS THIS AFTN BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  41  65  39 /  20  10  20  30
DULCE...........................  58  32  59  31 /  30  10  30  40
CUBA............................  57  33  62  34 /  40  10  20  20
GALLUP..........................  60  31  62  33 /  40  10  20  20
EL MORRO........................  53  31  58  33 /  40  10  10  20
GRANTS..........................  58  29  63  31 /  30  10   5  20
QUEMADO.........................  53  33  60  35 /  40   5  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  65  39  70  39 /  30   5   0  10
CHAMA...........................  55  29  57  29 /  40  10  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  39  60  41 /  60  10  20  10
PECOS...........................  55  37  60  38 /  50  10   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  57  28  62  28 /  30  10  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  48  29  52  28 /  50  10  20  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  51  26  55  24 /  40  10  10  10
TAOS............................  56  31  61  31 /  30  10  10  10
MORA............................  54  37  61  36 /  30  10   5  10
ESPANOLA........................  61  41  65  42 /  30   5  10   5
SANTA FE........................  55  38  61  40 /  60  10   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  35  65  37 /  60  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  61  43  67  46 /  70  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  63  41  69  46 /  60   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  38  71  42 /  60   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  40  71  44 /  60   5   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  67  37  74  42 /  60   5   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  63  42  70  46 /  60   5   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  69  41  75  45 /  50   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  36  63  38 /  60  10   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  59  35  65  37 /  70  10   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  62  30  65  32 /  50  10   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  60  34  64  36 /  50  10   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  62  38  66  39 /  60  10   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  66  42  71  45 /  40   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  62  38  66  41 /  60   5   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  60  38  66  40 /  20   5   5   5
RATON...........................  64  35  70  35 /  20   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  64  38  70  38 /  20   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  62  37  66  36 /  30   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  73  46  77  45 /  20   0   0   0
ROY.............................  66  39  71  41 /  20   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  73  47  77  46 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  72  47  75  43 /  20   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  79  47  81  45 /  10   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  78  46  78  45 /   5   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  79  48  78  47 /   5   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  76  47  78  47 /  10   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  79  47  82  47 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  70  44  73  47 /  20   0   0   0
ELK.............................  63  41  67  45 /  20   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$

43






000
FXUS65 KABQ 242146
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA WITH TS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
THIS AFTN...EXCEPT FOR KROW. GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR SITES NEAR SHRA
& TS ACTIVITY. STRONG SW TO W WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER AVIATION
IMPACT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. KLVS...KTCC &
KROW WILL SEE ADVISORY WINDS SPEEDS THIS AFTN BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  41  65  39 /  20  10  20  30
DULCE...........................  58  32  59  31 /  30  10  30  40
CUBA............................  57  33  62  34 /  40  10  20  20
GALLUP..........................  60  31  62  33 /  40  10  20  20
EL MORRO........................  53  31  58  33 /  40  10  10  20
GRANTS..........................  58  29  63  31 /  30  10   5  20
QUEMADO.........................  53  33  60  35 /  40   5  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  65  39  70  39 /  30   5   0  10
CHAMA...........................  55  29  57  29 /  40  10  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  39  60  41 /  60  10  20  10
PECOS...........................  55  37  60  38 /  50  10   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  57  28  62  28 /  30  10  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  48  29  52  28 /  50  10  20  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  51  26  55  24 /  40  10  10  10
TAOS............................  56  31  61  31 /  30  10  10  10
MORA............................  54  37  61  36 /  30  10   5  10
ESPANOLA........................  61  41  65  42 /  30   5  10   5
SANTA FE........................  55  38  61  40 /  60  10   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  35  65  37 /  60  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  61  43  67  46 /  70  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  63  41  69  46 /  60   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  38  71  42 /  60   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  40  71  44 /  60   5   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  67  37  74  42 /  60   5   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  63  42  70  46 /  60   5   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  69  41  75  45 /  50   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  36  63  38 /  60  10   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  59  35  65  37 /  70  10   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  62  30  65  32 /  50  10   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  60  34  64  36 /  50  10   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  62  38  66  39 /  60  10   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  66  42  71  45 /  40   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  62  38  66  41 /  60   5   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  60  38  66  40 /  20   5   5   5
RATON...........................  64  35  70  35 /  20   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  64  38  70  38 /  20   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  62  37  66  36 /  30   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  73  46  77  45 /  20   0   0   0
ROY.............................  66  39  71  41 /  20   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  73  47  77  46 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  72  47  75  43 /  20   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  79  47  81  45 /  10   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  78  46  78  45 /   5   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  79  48  78  47 /   5   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  76  47  78  47 /  10   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  79  47  82  47 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  70  44  73  47 /  20   0   0   0
ELK.............................  63  41  67  45 /  20   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$

43






000
FXUS65 KABQ 242146
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA WITH TS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
THIS AFTN...EXCEPT FOR KROW. GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR SITES NEAR SHRA
& TS ACTIVITY. STRONG SW TO W WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER AVIATION
IMPACT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. KLVS...KTCC &
KROW WILL SEE ADVISORY WINDS SPEEDS THIS AFTN BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  41  65  39 /  20  10  20  30
DULCE...........................  58  32  59  31 /  30  10  30  40
CUBA............................  57  33  62  34 /  40  10  20  20
GALLUP..........................  60  31  62  33 /  40  10  20  20
EL MORRO........................  53  31  58  33 /  40  10  10  20
GRANTS..........................  58  29  63  31 /  30  10   5  20
QUEMADO.........................  53  33  60  35 /  40   5  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  65  39  70  39 /  30   5   0  10
CHAMA...........................  55  29  57  29 /  40  10  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  39  60  41 /  60  10  20  10
PECOS...........................  55  37  60  38 /  50  10   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  57  28  62  28 /  30  10  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  48  29  52  28 /  50  10  20  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  51  26  55  24 /  40  10  10  10
TAOS............................  56  31  61  31 /  30  10  10  10
MORA............................  54  37  61  36 /  30  10   5  10
ESPANOLA........................  61  41  65  42 /  30   5  10   5
SANTA FE........................  55  38  61  40 /  60  10   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  35  65  37 /  60  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  61  43  67  46 /  70  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  63  41  69  46 /  60   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  38  71  42 /  60   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  40  71  44 /  60   5   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  67  37  74  42 /  60   5   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  63  42  70  46 /  60   5   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  69  41  75  45 /  50   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  36  63  38 /  60  10   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  59  35  65  37 /  70  10   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  62  30  65  32 /  50  10   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  60  34  64  36 /  50  10   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  62  38  66  39 /  60  10   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  66  42  71  45 /  40   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  62  38  66  41 /  60   5   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  60  38  66  40 /  20   5   5   5
RATON...........................  64  35  70  35 /  20   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  64  38  70  38 /  20   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  62  37  66  36 /  30   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  73  46  77  45 /  20   0   0   0
ROY.............................  66  39  71  41 /  20   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  73  47  77  46 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  72  47  75  43 /  20   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  79  47  81  45 /  10   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  78  46  78  45 /   5   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  79  48  78  47 /   5   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  76  47  78  47 /  10   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  79  47  82  47 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  70  44  73  47 /  20   0   0   0
ELK.............................  63  41  67  45 /  20   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$

43






000
FXUS65 KABQ 242146
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
346 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT COMING ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVERNIGHT
WILL STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE ENOUGH TO ELIMINATE ANY LEFTOVER
SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND STORMS BY MID TO LATE EVENING. BUT A
STRENGTHENING STORM SYSTEM WILL DRIVE INTO NEW MEXICO SUNDAY AND
LINGER INTO MONDAY. ACCORDING TO PERSISTENT FORECAST MODEL TRENDS
IT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING THE MOST WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION
THE STATE AS A WHOLE HAS SEEN IN SEVERAL WEEKS. SNOW LEVELS WILL
LOWER WITH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND...MORE SPECIFICALLY...THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND PERHAPS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS POTENTIALLY
PICKING UP SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL DEVELOP FOR
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH ISOLATED MOUNTAIN CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A PRETTY ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS IN THE WORKS THE NEXT 4 TO 5
DAYS WITH SUN AND MON BEING THE MOST ACTIVE DAYS OF THIS PERIOD.

ANY LINGERING SIGNIFICANT PRECIP FROM LATE AFTN OR EARLY EVE WILL
FADE AWAY BY MID TO LATE EVE WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.
WIND ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD FOR MOST OF THE ZONES PREVIOUSLY
COVERED BY IT AND 02Z EXPIRATION WILL BE MAINTAINED AS A FEW OF
THE AFFECTED ZONES MAY NOT BE COMFORTABLY BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA
UNTIL THEN.

SAT WILL BE SORT OF A TRANSITION DAY AS THE WEAK OVERNIGHT RIDGE
MOVES EAST AND WE JUST BEGIN TO GET INTO THE FAR EASTERN PORTION
OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OF THE NEXT INCOMING TROUGH. MOISTURE
WILL BE LACKING SOMEWHAT...BUT A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND
STORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO THIRD OF THE
STATE. AFTN TEMPS WILL WARM SEVERAL DEGREES ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF
THE FCST AREA AND WINDS SHOULD BE LIGHTER THAN TODAY...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EAST. LATE SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING THE TROUGH TO THE
WEST DEVELOPS INTO A CLOSED LOW ACROSS N CENTRAL OR EAST AZ AND
SLOWS DOWN SOMEWHAT AS IT CRUISES ACROSS NM. SCT TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND SOME STORMS...WITH SNOW LVLS DROPPING TO BETWEEN 9000
AND 10000 FT LATER IN THE DAY AND EVEN LOWER SUN NIGHT. SUN NIGHT
INTO MON SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN SEVERAL INCHES AND
A FOOT ARE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE N MTNS AND PERHAPS EVEN
PORTIONS OF THE NE HIGHLANDS...RATON PASS AND JOHNSON MESA. THE
LATTER THREE LOCATIONS ARE STILL PROBLEMATIC THOUGH DUE TO THE
FACT THAT THICKNESS VALUES BEHIND THE SOUTHWARD SURGING BACK DOOR
FRONT ARE NOT MUCH LOWER THAN AHEAD OF IT AND ALSO GULF MOISTURE
WILL LIKELY BE A PART OF THE INDICATED STRONG WRAP AROUND MOISTURE
TO N AND NW OF THE SLOWLY DEPARTING LOW. THUS CONFIDENCE NOT TOO
HIGH AS CONCERNS HOW FAR EAST ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL BE A CONCERN
ACROSS NE NM. CERTAINLY THOUGH THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS APPEAR TO BE
THE MOST FAVORED.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AS THE BAJA LOW TRANSCENDS TO AN OPEN WAVE OVER NORTHEAST NEW
MEXICO...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WETTING RAIN WILL
CONTINUE EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH THIS
EVENING. SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND GUSTY
WINDS WILL FOLLOW STRONGER STORMS. STRONG SOUTHWEST TO WESTERLY
WINDS DID PICK UP THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS SO FAR REACHING 60 MPH
NEAR TUCUMCARI. STORMS AND STRONG WINDS WILL TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT
FOLLOWING COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WITH DECENT RH RECOVERIES.

SATURDAY WILL START OFF WITH SMALL POCKETS OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
FOR PORTIONS OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FOLLOWING DRY AND WINDY
CONDITIONS. A FEW AFTERNOON VIRGA SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST.

SUNDAY...ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL INVADE THE
STATE WHILE AT THE THE SAME TIME A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. A COOLING TREND IN TEMPERATURES WILL
PROCEED ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING ACROSS
WESTERN AREAS SPREADING EASTWARD THROUGHOUT THE DAY. LOWER
ELEVATIONS WILL SEE WETTING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH SNOW
SHOWERS FAVORING LOCATIONS ABOVE 7500 FEET...SUCH AS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS...THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON RIDGE.

WRAP AROUND MOISTURE FROM THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE
WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION CENTRAL AND EAST WITH TEMPERATURES
REMAINING BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SOME RESIDUAL MOISTURE COULD LINGER
ACROSS WESTERN AREAS ON TUESDAY BUT WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE WEST THAT WILL BRING BACK
WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO THE STATE MIDWEEK TOWARD THE END OF
THE WEEK.

GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES OVER THE WEEKEND INTO MONDAY...
BECOMING POOR WEST AND CENTRAL...FAIR IN THE EAST BY TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA WITH TS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
THIS AFTN...EXCEPT FOR KROW. GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR SITES NEAR SHRA
& TS ACTIVITY. STRONG SW TO W WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER AVIATION
IMPACT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. KLVS...KTCC &
KROW WILL SEE ADVISORY WINDS SPEEDS THIS AFTN BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  41  65  39 /  20  10  20  30
DULCE...........................  58  32  59  31 /  30  10  30  40
CUBA............................  57  33  62  34 /  40  10  20  20
GALLUP..........................  60  31  62  33 /  40  10  20  20
EL MORRO........................  53  31  58  33 /  40  10  10  20
GRANTS..........................  58  29  63  31 /  30  10   5  20
QUEMADO.........................  53  33  60  35 /  40   5  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  65  39  70  39 /  30   5   0  10
CHAMA...........................  55  29  57  29 /  40  10  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  39  60  41 /  60  10  20  10
PECOS...........................  55  37  60  38 /  50  10   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  57  28  62  28 /  30  10  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  48  29  52  28 /  50  10  20  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  51  26  55  24 /  40  10  10  10
TAOS............................  56  31  61  31 /  30  10  10  10
MORA............................  54  37  61  36 /  30  10   5  10
ESPANOLA........................  61  41  65  42 /  30   5  10   5
SANTA FE........................  55  38  61  40 /  60  10   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  60  35  65  37 /  60  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  61  43  67  46 /  70  10   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  63  41  69  46 /  60   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  65  38  71  42 /  60   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  40  71  44 /  60   5   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  67  37  74  42 /  60   5   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  63  42  70  46 /  60   5   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  69  41  75  45 /  50   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  36  63  38 /  60  10   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  59  35  65  37 /  70  10   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  62  30  65  32 /  50  10   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  60  34  64  36 /  50  10   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  62  38  66  39 /  60  10   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  66  42  71  45 /  40   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  62  38  66  41 /  60   5   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  60  38  66  40 /  20   5   5   5
RATON...........................  64  35  70  35 /  20   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  64  38  70  38 /  20   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  62  37  66  36 /  30   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  73  46  77  45 /  20   0   0   0
ROY.............................  66  39  71  41 /  20   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  73  47  77  46 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  72  47  75  43 /  20   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  79  47  81  45 /  10   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  78  46  78  45 /   5   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  79  48  78  47 /   5   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  76  47  78  47 /  10   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  79  47  82  47 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  70  44  73  47 /  20   0   0   0
ELK.............................  63  41  67  45 /  20   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$

43






000
FXUS65 KABQ 241803
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1203 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA WITH TS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
THIS AFTN...EXCEPT FOR KROW. GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR SITES NEAR SHRA
& TS ACTIVITY. STRONG SW TO W WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER AVIATION
IMPACT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. KLVS...KTCC &
KROW WILL SEE ADVISORY WINDS SPEEDS THIS AFTN BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...536 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.UPDATE...
RADAR TRENDS AND 06Z MODELS AGREE THAT THE BAROCLINIC LEAF FORMING
OVER CENTRAL NM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING. A BAND
OF MODERATE RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY FROM NORTHERN SOCORRO COUNTY
NORTH THROUGH VALENCIA...BERNALILLO AND SOUTHERN SANDOVAL
COUNTIES. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL NM THIS MORNING.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL
SLIDE EAST THROUGH NEW MEXICO TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. STRONG WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST TO
THE TEXAS LINE. DESPITE SOME LEFT OVER MOISTURE...A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COLD UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY
AND TO MUCH OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ARIZONA AND NORTHERN SONORA WILL SLIDE
EAST AND NEWD EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE BEST ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
RISE SO MOST SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ON THE WET SIDE. STRONG SFC
LOW OVER FAR SE COLORADO WILL RESULT IN STRONG WEST WINDS FROM
MAINLY THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EAST TO THE TEXAS LINE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF EAST-CENTRAL
AND SE ZONES FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 8 PM MDT. A TRAILING SHORT-
WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AHEAD
OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FAVOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN
WIDESPREAD BAND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NM SUNDAY
MORNING. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD
EWD SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL
AS THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
AROUND 7500 FEET SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE APPROXIMATELY 8500 TO 9000 FEET. FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF DROPS THE LOW SEWD THROUGH NM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH THAN THE GFS AND IS THEREFORE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
(INCLUDING EAST-CENTRAL NM INCLUDING INTERSTATE 40) WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MONDAY. LOW LEVEL ELY PUSH ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SENDS THE
EQUIVALENT OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH/OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WEST- CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. MODELS SPITTING OUT OVER AN INCH OF RAIN OVER FAR NE NM
BY MONDAY EVENING. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE STATE SHOULD RECEIVE
WETTING RAINFALL (0.10" OR GREATER) WITH MANY LOCATIONS ON TRACK
FOR BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO SKI AREAS ON UP TO THE PEAKS. FIVE TO EIGHT INCHES OF THE
WHITE STUFF ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF WEST-
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NM WITH UP TO ONE FOOT POSSIBLE NEAR AND ABOVE
TIMBERLINE IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
EASTERN SUB-RANGES SUCH AS CIMMARON AND CULEBRA.

THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
ALONG WITH A 70KT NELY JET GETS SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF AGREE
THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN NM
WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CENTERED OVER NM THURSDAY. RIDGE SLIDES EAST
LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP POSSIBLE OVER
THE WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER AND NOT AS DRY TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DIP BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD. THAT SAID...HAINES OF 4 AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THERE WILL PRECLUDE A
WARNING ISSUANCE. GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY FORECAST
CENTRAL AND WEST TONIGHT...WITH SOME SHORT-LIVED WARMING/DRYING ON
SATURDAY.

THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND MOVE OVER NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/MOISTENING TREND WILL BE
IN PLAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WETTING EVENT IN THE DIFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER LOW
WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT IN THE MIX. SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY ABOVE 9000 FEET...MAINLY IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BONUS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

A PRONOUNCED WARMING/DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FROM MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WITH NO
MAJOR WIND SYSTEMS IN SIGHT PER THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 241803
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1203 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA WITH TS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
THIS AFTN...EXCEPT FOR KROW. GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR SITES NEAR SHRA
& TS ACTIVITY. STRONG SW TO W WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER AVIATION
IMPACT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. KLVS...KTCC &
KROW WILL SEE ADVISORY WINDS SPEEDS THIS AFTN BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...536 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.UPDATE...
RADAR TRENDS AND 06Z MODELS AGREE THAT THE BAROCLINIC LEAF FORMING
OVER CENTRAL NM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING. A BAND
OF MODERATE RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY FROM NORTHERN SOCORRO COUNTY
NORTH THROUGH VALENCIA...BERNALILLO AND SOUTHERN SANDOVAL
COUNTIES. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL NM THIS MORNING.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL
SLIDE EAST THROUGH NEW MEXICO TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. STRONG WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST TO
THE TEXAS LINE. DESPITE SOME LEFT OVER MOISTURE...A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COLD UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY
AND TO MUCH OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ARIZONA AND NORTHERN SONORA WILL SLIDE
EAST AND NEWD EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE BEST ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
RISE SO MOST SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ON THE WET SIDE. STRONG SFC
LOW OVER FAR SE COLORADO WILL RESULT IN STRONG WEST WINDS FROM
MAINLY THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EAST TO THE TEXAS LINE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF EAST-CENTRAL
AND SE ZONES FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 8 PM MDT. A TRAILING SHORT-
WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AHEAD
OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FAVOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN
WIDESPREAD BAND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NM SUNDAY
MORNING. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD
EWD SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL
AS THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
AROUND 7500 FEET SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE APPROXIMATELY 8500 TO 9000 FEET. FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF DROPS THE LOW SEWD THROUGH NM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH THAN THE GFS AND IS THEREFORE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
(INCLUDING EAST-CENTRAL NM INCLUDING INTERSTATE 40) WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MONDAY. LOW LEVEL ELY PUSH ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SENDS THE
EQUIVALENT OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH/OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WEST- CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. MODELS SPITTING OUT OVER AN INCH OF RAIN OVER FAR NE NM
BY MONDAY EVENING. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE STATE SHOULD RECEIVE
WETTING RAINFALL (0.10" OR GREATER) WITH MANY LOCATIONS ON TRACK
FOR BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO SKI AREAS ON UP TO THE PEAKS. FIVE TO EIGHT INCHES OF THE
WHITE STUFF ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF WEST-
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NM WITH UP TO ONE FOOT POSSIBLE NEAR AND ABOVE
TIMBERLINE IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
EASTERN SUB-RANGES SUCH AS CIMMARON AND CULEBRA.

THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
ALONG WITH A 70KT NELY JET GETS SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF AGREE
THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN NM
WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CENTERED OVER NM THURSDAY. RIDGE SLIDES EAST
LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP POSSIBLE OVER
THE WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER AND NOT AS DRY TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DIP BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD. THAT SAID...HAINES OF 4 AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THERE WILL PRECLUDE A
WARNING ISSUANCE. GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY FORECAST
CENTRAL AND WEST TONIGHT...WITH SOME SHORT-LIVED WARMING/DRYING ON
SATURDAY.

THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND MOVE OVER NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/MOISTENING TREND WILL BE
IN PLAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WETTING EVENT IN THE DIFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER LOW
WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT IN THE MIX. SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY ABOVE 9000 FEET...MAINLY IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BONUS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

A PRONOUNCED WARMING/DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FROM MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WITH NO
MAJOR WIND SYSTEMS IN SIGHT PER THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 241803
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1203 PM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA WITH TS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM
THIS AFTN...EXCEPT FOR KROW. GUSTY WINDS...CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTING AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS WILL BE EXPECTED FOR SITES NEAR SHRA
& TS ACTIVITY. STRONG SW TO W WINDS WILL BE ANOTHER AVIATION
IMPACT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. KLVS...KTCC &
KROW WILL SEE ADVISORY WINDS SPEEDS THIS AFTN BETWEEN 30 AND 40 MPH.
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...536 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.UPDATE...
RADAR TRENDS AND 06Z MODELS AGREE THAT THE BAROCLINIC LEAF FORMING
OVER CENTRAL NM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING. A BAND
OF MODERATE RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY FROM NORTHERN SOCORRO COUNTY
NORTH THROUGH VALENCIA...BERNALILLO AND SOUTHERN SANDOVAL
COUNTIES. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL NM THIS MORNING.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL
SLIDE EAST THROUGH NEW MEXICO TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. STRONG WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST TO
THE TEXAS LINE. DESPITE SOME LEFT OVER MOISTURE...A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COLD UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY
AND TO MUCH OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ARIZONA AND NORTHERN SONORA WILL SLIDE
EAST AND NEWD EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE BEST ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
RISE SO MOST SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ON THE WET SIDE. STRONG SFC
LOW OVER FAR SE COLORADO WILL RESULT IN STRONG WEST WINDS FROM
MAINLY THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EAST TO THE TEXAS LINE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF EAST-CENTRAL
AND SE ZONES FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 8 PM MDT. A TRAILING SHORT-
WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AHEAD
OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FAVOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN
WIDESPREAD BAND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NM SUNDAY
MORNING. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD
EWD SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL
AS THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
AROUND 7500 FEET SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE APPROXIMATELY 8500 TO 9000 FEET. FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF DROPS THE LOW SEWD THROUGH NM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH THAN THE GFS AND IS THEREFORE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
(INCLUDING EAST-CENTRAL NM INCLUDING INTERSTATE 40) WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MONDAY. LOW LEVEL ELY PUSH ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SENDS THE
EQUIVALENT OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH/OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WEST- CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. MODELS SPITTING OUT OVER AN INCH OF RAIN OVER FAR NE NM
BY MONDAY EVENING. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE STATE SHOULD RECEIVE
WETTING RAINFALL (0.10" OR GREATER) WITH MANY LOCATIONS ON TRACK
FOR BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO SKI AREAS ON UP TO THE PEAKS. FIVE TO EIGHT INCHES OF THE
WHITE STUFF ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF WEST-
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NM WITH UP TO ONE FOOT POSSIBLE NEAR AND ABOVE
TIMBERLINE IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
EASTERN SUB-RANGES SUCH AS CIMMARON AND CULEBRA.

THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
ALONG WITH A 70KT NELY JET GETS SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF AGREE
THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN NM
WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CENTERED OVER NM THURSDAY. RIDGE SLIDES EAST
LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP POSSIBLE OVER
THE WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER AND NOT AS DRY TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DIP BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD. THAT SAID...HAINES OF 4 AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THERE WILL PRECLUDE A
WARNING ISSUANCE. GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY FORECAST
CENTRAL AND WEST TONIGHT...WITH SOME SHORT-LIVED WARMING/DRYING ON
SATURDAY.

THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND MOVE OVER NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/MOISTENING TREND WILL BE
IN PLAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WETTING EVENT IN THE DIFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER LOW
WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT IN THE MIX. SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY ABOVE 9000 FEET...MAINLY IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BONUS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

A PRONOUNCED WARMING/DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FROM MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WITH NO
MAJOR WIND SYSTEMS IN SIGHT PER THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 241142 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MOSTLY VFR IN AREAS OF RAIN TODAY...ALTHOUGH SPOTTY SHORT-LIVED
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT KSAF...KABQ AND KAEG WITH
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT TODAY WILL BE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
FORECAST AT KLVS...KTCC AND KROW THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT...
BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...536 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.UPDATE...
RADAR TRENDS AND 06Z MODELS AGREE THAT THE BAROCLINIC LEAF FORMING
OVER CENTRAL NM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING. A BAND
OF MODERATE RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY FROM NORTHERN SOCORRO COUNTY
NORTH THROUGH VALENCIA...BERNALILLO AND SOUTHERN SANDOVAL
COUNTIES. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL NM THIS MORNING.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL
SLIDE EAST THROUGH NEW MEXICO TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. STRONG WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST TO
THE TEXAS LINE. DESPITE SOME LEFT OVER MOISTURE...A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COLD UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY
AND TO MUCH OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ARIZONA AND NORTHERN SONORA WILL SLIDE
EAST AND NEWD EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE BEST ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
RISE SO MOST SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ON THE WET SIDE. STRONG SFC
LOW OVER FAR SE COLORADO WILL RESULT IN STRONG WEST WINDS FROM
MAINLY THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EAST TO THE TEXAS LINE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF EAST-CENTRAL
AND SE ZONES FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 8 PM MDT. A TRAILING SHORT-
WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AHEAD
OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FAVOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN
WIDESPREAD BAND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NM SUNDAY
MORNING. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD
EWD SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL
AS THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
AROUND 7500 FEET SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE APPROXIMATELY 8500 TO 9000 FEET. FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF DROPS THE LOW SEWD THROUGH NM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH THAN THE GFS AND IS THEREFORE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
(INCLUDING EAST-CENTRAL NM INCLUDING INTERSTATE 40) WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MONDAY. LOW LEVEL ELY PUSH ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SENDS THE
EQUIVALENT OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH/OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WEST- CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. MODELS SPITTING OUT OVER AN INCH OF RAIN OVER FAR NE NM
BY MONDAY EVENING. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE STATE SHOULD RECEIVE
WETTING RAINFALL (0.10" OR GREATER) WITH MANY LOCATIONS ON TRACK
FOR BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO SKI AREAS ON UP TO THE PEAKS. FIVE TO EIGHT INCHES OF THE
WHITE STUFF ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF WEST-
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NM WITH UP TO ONE FOOT POSSIBLE NEAR AND ABOVE
TIMBERLINE IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
EASTERN SUB-RANGES SUCH AS CIMMARON AND CULEBRA.

THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
ALONG WITH A 70KT NELY JET GETS SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF AGREE
THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN NM
WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CENTERED OVER NM THURSDAY. RIDGE SLIDES EAST
LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP POSSIBLE OVER
THE WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER AND NOT AS DRY TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DIP BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD. THAT SAID...HAINES OF 4 AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THERE WILL PRECLUDE A
WARNING ISSUANCE. GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY FORECAST
CENTRAL AND WEST TONIGHT...WITH SOME SHORT-LIVED WARMING/DRYING ON
SATURDAY.

THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND MOVE OVER NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/MOISTENING TREND WILL BE
IN PLAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WETTING EVENT IN THE DIFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER LOW
WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT IN THE MIX. SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY ABOVE 9000 FEET...MAINLY IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BONUS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

A PRONOUNCED WARMING/DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FROM MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WITH NO
MAJOR WIND SYSTEMS IN SIGHT PER THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS65 KABQ 241142 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MOSTLY VFR IN AREAS OF RAIN TODAY...ALTHOUGH SPOTTY SHORT-LIVED
MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING AT KSAF...KABQ AND KAEG WITH
OCCASIONAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE MAIN AVIATION
IMPACT TODAY WILL BE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WITH THE HIGHEST GUSTS
FORECAST AT KLVS...KTCC AND KROW THIS AFTERNOON. STRONG WESTERLY
FLOW WILL PERSIST IN THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE OVERNIGHT...
BUT GRADUALLY DECREASE.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...536 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.UPDATE...
RADAR TRENDS AND 06Z MODELS AGREE THAT THE BAROCLINIC LEAF FORMING
OVER CENTRAL NM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING. A BAND
OF MODERATE RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY FROM NORTHERN SOCORRO COUNTY
NORTH THROUGH VALENCIA...BERNALILLO AND SOUTHERN SANDOVAL
COUNTIES. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL NM THIS MORNING.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL
SLIDE EAST THROUGH NEW MEXICO TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. STRONG WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST TO
THE TEXAS LINE. DESPITE SOME LEFT OVER MOISTURE...A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COLD UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY
AND TO MUCH OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ARIZONA AND NORTHERN SONORA WILL SLIDE
EAST AND NEWD EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE BEST ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
RISE SO MOST SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ON THE WET SIDE. STRONG SFC
LOW OVER FAR SE COLORADO WILL RESULT IN STRONG WEST WINDS FROM
MAINLY THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EAST TO THE TEXAS LINE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF EAST-CENTRAL
AND SE ZONES FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 8 PM MDT. A TRAILING SHORT-
WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AHEAD
OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FAVOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN
WIDESPREAD BAND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NM SUNDAY
MORNING. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD
EWD SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL
AS THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
AROUND 7500 FEET SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE APPROXIMATELY 8500 TO 9000 FEET. FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF DROPS THE LOW SEWD THROUGH NM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH THAN THE GFS AND IS THEREFORE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
(INCLUDING EAST-CENTRAL NM INCLUDING INTERSTATE 40) WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MONDAY. LOW LEVEL ELY PUSH ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SENDS THE
EQUIVALENT OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH/OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WEST- CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. MODELS SPITTING OUT OVER AN INCH OF RAIN OVER FAR NE NM
BY MONDAY EVENING. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE STATE SHOULD RECEIVE
WETTING RAINFALL (0.10" OR GREATER) WITH MANY LOCATIONS ON TRACK
FOR BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO SKI AREAS ON UP TO THE PEAKS. FIVE TO EIGHT INCHES OF THE
WHITE STUFF ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF WEST-
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NM WITH UP TO ONE FOOT POSSIBLE NEAR AND ABOVE
TIMBERLINE IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
EASTERN SUB-RANGES SUCH AS CIMMARON AND CULEBRA.

THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
ALONG WITH A 70KT NELY JET GETS SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF AGREE
THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN NM
WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CENTERED OVER NM THURSDAY. RIDGE SLIDES EAST
LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP POSSIBLE OVER
THE WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER AND NOT AS DRY TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DIP BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD. THAT SAID...HAINES OF 4 AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THERE WILL PRECLUDE A
WARNING ISSUANCE. GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY FORECAST
CENTRAL AND WEST TONIGHT...WITH SOME SHORT-LIVED WARMING/DRYING ON
SATURDAY.

THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND MOVE OVER NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/MOISTENING TREND WILL BE
IN PLAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WETTING EVENT IN THE DIFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER LOW
WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT IN THE MIX. SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY ABOVE 9000 FEET...MAINLY IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BONUS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

A PRONOUNCED WARMING/DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FROM MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WITH NO
MAJOR WIND SYSTEMS IN SIGHT PER THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS65 KABQ 241136 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
536 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.UPDATE...
RADAR TRENDS AND 06Z MODELS AGREE THAT THE BAROCLINIC LEAF FORMING
OVER CENTRAL NM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE MORNING. A BAND
OF MODERATE RAINFALL APPEARS LIKELY FROM NORTHERN SOCORRO COUNTY
NORTH THROUGH VALENCIA...BERNALILLO AND SOUTHERN SANDOVAL
COUNTIES. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES TO LIKELY FOR MUCH OF
CENTRAL NM THIS MORNING.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL
SLIDE EAST THROUGH NEW MEXICO TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. STRONG WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST TO
THE TEXAS LINE. DESPITE SOME LEFT OVER MOISTURE...A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COLD UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY
AND TO MUCH OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ARIZONA AND NORTHERN SONORA WILL SLIDE
EAST AND NEWD EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE BEST ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
RISE SO MOST SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ON THE WET SIDE. STRONG SFC
LOW OVER FAR SE COLORADO WILL RESULT IN STRONG WEST WINDS FROM
MAINLY THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EAST TO THE TEXAS LINE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF EAST-CENTRAL
AND SE ZONES FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 8 PM MDT. A TRAILING SHORT-
WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AHEAD
OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FAVOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN
WIDESPREAD BAND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NM SUNDAY
MORNING. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD
EWD SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL
AS THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
AROUND 7500 FEET SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE APPROXIMATELY 8500 TO 9000 FEET. FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF DROPS THE LOW SEWD THROUGH NM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH THAN THE GFS AND IS THEREFORE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
(INCLUDING EAST-CENTRAL NM INCLUDING INTERSTATE 40) WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MONDAY. LOW LEVEL ELY PUSH ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SENDS THE
EQUIVALENT OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH/OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WEST- CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. MODELS SPITTING OUT OVER AN INCH OF RAIN OVER FAR NE NM
BY MONDAY EVENING. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE STATE SHOULD RECEIVE
WETTING RAINFALL (0.10" OR GREATER) WITH MANY LOCATIONS ON TRACK
FOR BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO SKI AREAS ON UP TO THE PEAKS. FIVE TO EIGHT INCHES OF THE
WHITE STUFF ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF WEST-
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NM WITH UP TO ONE FOOT POSSIBLE NEAR AND ABOVE
TIMBERLINE IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
EASTERN SUB-RANGES SUCH AS CIMMARON AND CULEBRA.

THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
ALONG WITH A 70KT NELY JET GETS SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF AGREE
THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN NM
WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CENTERED OVER NM THURSDAY. RIDGE SLIDES EAST
LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP POSSIBLE OVER
THE WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER AND NOT AS DRY TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DIP BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD. THAT SAID...HAINES OF 4 AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THERE WILL PRECLUDE A
WARNING ISSUANCE. GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY FORECAST
CENTRAL AND WEST TONIGHT...WITH SOME SHORT-LIVED WARMING/DRYING ON
SATURDAY.

THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND MOVE OVER NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/MOISTENING TREND WILL BE
IN PLAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WETTING EVENT IN THE DIFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER LOW
WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT IN THE MIX. SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY ABOVE 9000 FEET...MAINLY IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BONUS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

A PRONOUNCED WARMING/DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FROM MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WITH NO
MAJOR WIND SYSTEMS IN SIGHT PER THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ENCROACH UPON NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO SLOWLY
SPREAD INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...EVENTUALLY WORKING INTO SOME
CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. INITIALLY VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE...AND CEILINGS
WILL NOT BE LOWERED MUCH...BUT GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 35 TO 40 KT
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY GIVEN SHOWER OR STORM ON A BRIEF AND
LOCAL SCALE. MORE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TOWARD
24/0900 TO 24/1400UTC...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD STILL MOSTLY STAY IN
THE VFR CATEGORY. THE WINDS WILL ALSO TURN WESTERLY INTO FRIDAY
AS THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AND GUSTS WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE THE WINDS WILL STAY QUITE STRONG INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS PERIODICALLY REACHING 35 TO 45 KT.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$

33










000
FXUS65 KABQ 240933
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
333 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL
SLIDE EAST THROUGH NEW MEXICO TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. STRONG WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST TO
THE TEXAS LINE. DESPITE SOME LEFT OVER MOISTURE...A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COLD UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY
AND TO MUCH OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ARIZONA AND NORTHERN SONORA WILL SLIDE
EAST AND NEWD EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE BEST ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
RISE SO MOST SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ON THE WET SIDE. STRONG SFC
LOW OVER FAR SE COLORADO WILL RESULT IN STRONG WEST WINDS FROM
MAINLY THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EAST TO THE TEXAS LINE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF EAST-CENTRAL
AND SE ZONES FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 8 PM MDT. A TRAILING SHORT-
WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AHEAD
OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FAVOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN
WIDESPREAD BAND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NM SUNDAY
MORNING. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD
EWD SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL
AS THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
AROUND 7500 FEET SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE APPROXIMATELY 8500 TO 9000 FEET. FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF DROPS THE LOW SEWD THROUGH NM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH THAN THE GFS AND IS THEREFORE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
(INCLUDING EAST-CENTRAL NM INCLUDING INTERSTATE 40) WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MONDAY. LOW LEVEL ELY PUSH ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SENDS THE
EQUIVALENT OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH/OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WEST- CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. MODELS SPITTING OUT OVER AN INCH OF RAIN OVER FAR NE NM
BY MONDAY EVENING. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE STATE SHOULD RECEIVE
WETTING RAINFALL (0.10" OR GREATER) WITH MANY LOCATIONS ON TRACK
FOR BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO SKI AREAS ON UP TO THE PEAKS. FIVE TO EIGHT INCHES OF THE
WHITE STUFF ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF WEST-
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NM WITH UP TO ONE FOOT POSSIBLE NEAR AND ABOVE
TIMBERLINE IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
EASTERN SUB-RANGES SUCH AS CIMMARON AND CULEBRA.

THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
ALONG WITH A 70KT NELY JET GETS SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF AGREE
THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN NM
WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CENTERED OVER NM THURSDAY. RIDGE SLIDES EAST
LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP POSSIBLE OVER
THE WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER AND NOT AS DRY TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DIP BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD. THAT SAID...HAINES OF 4 AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THERE WILL PRECLUDE A
WARNING ISSUANCE. GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY FORECAST
CENTRAL AND WEST TONIGHT...WITH SOME SHORT-LIVED WARMING/DRYING ON
SATURDAY.

THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND MOVE OVER NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/MOISTENING TREND WILL BE
IN PLAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WETTING EVENT IN THE DIFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER LOW
WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT IN THE MIX. SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY ABOVE 9000 FEET...MAINLY IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BONUS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

A PRONOUNCED WARMING/DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FROM MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WITH NO
MAJOR WIND SYSTEMS IN SIGHT PER THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ENCROACH UPON NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO SLOWLY
SPREAD INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...EVENTUALLY WORKING INTO SOME
CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. INITIALLY VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE...AND CEILINGS
WILL NOT BE LOWERED MUCH...BUT GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 35 TO 40 KT
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY GIVEN SHOWER OR STORM ON A BRIEF AND
LOCAL SCALE. MORE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TOWARD
24/0900 TO 24/1400UTC...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD STILL MOSTLY STAY IN
THE VFR CATEGORY. THE WINDS WILL ALSO TURN WESTERLY INTO FRIDAY
AS THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AND GUSTS WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE THE WINDS WILL STAY QUITE STRONG INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS PERIODICALLY REACHING 35 TO 45 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  40  65  39 /  10  10  20  30
DULCE...........................  58  30  60  30 /  30  10  30  40
CUBA............................  57  32  62  33 /  30  10  20  20
GALLUP..........................  60  31  63  31 /  20  10  20  20
EL MORRO........................  53  31  59  32 /  30  10  10  20
GRANTS..........................  58  27  63  29 /  20  10   5  20
QUEMADO.........................  53  32  60  34 /  30   5  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  65  38  71  38 /  20   5   0  10
CHAMA...........................  55  28  57  28 /  40  10  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  40  60  42 /  40  10  20  10
PECOS...........................  55  37  61  38 /  20   5   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  57  26  62  27 /  40   5  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  48  29  52  29 /  50  10  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  51  24  55  24 /  40   5  10  10
TAOS............................  56  30  61  30 /  30   5  10  10
MORA............................  54  37  61  36 /  30   5   0  10
ESPANOLA........................  61  41  66  42 /  30   5  10   5
SANTA FE........................  56  39  62  41 /  30   5   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  61  34  66  36 /  30   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  44  69  48 /  30   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  43  71  47 /  30   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  67  38  73  43 /  20   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  43  72  46 /  20   5   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  69  37  74  41 /  20   5   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  65  44  71  48 /  20   5   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  70  41  76  47 /  10   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  58  36  63  40 /  50   5   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  60  34  65  36 /  40   5   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  62  28  66  32 /  40   5   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  60  34  64  37 /  40   5   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  62  38  66  42 /  20   5   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  66  42  71  45 /  20   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  62  37  66  40 /  10   5   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  60  37  66  39 /  30   5   5   5
RATON...........................  64  34  70  35 /  30   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  64  37  70  38 /  20   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  62  37  66  37 /  20   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  73  46  77  46 /  20   0   0   0
ROY.............................  66  38  71  39 /  20   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  73  49  78  49 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  72  47  75  46 /  10   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  79  47  82  47 /  10   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  78  45  78  47 /  10   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  79  48  79  49 /  10   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  76  47  78  49 /  10   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  79  46  82  48 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  70  44  74  47 /   5   0   0   0
ELK.............................  63  41  67  45 /   5   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$

33



















000
FXUS65 KABQ 240933
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
333 AM MDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA WILL
SLIDE EAST THROUGH NEW MEXICO TODAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO THE NORTHERN AREAS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. STRONG WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS EAST TO
THE TEXAS LINE. DESPITE SOME LEFT OVER MOISTURE...A WEAK RIDGE OF
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG AND COLD UPPER LOW IS EXPECTED TO
BRING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO ALL AREAS ON SUNDAY
AND TO MUCH OF NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.
SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER ARIZONA AND NORTHERN SONORA WILL SLIDE
EAST AND NEWD EARLY THIS MORNING. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THE BEST ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER CENTRAL AREAS THIS MORNING...SHIFTING TO
NORTHERN NM DURING THE AFTERNOON. DEWPOINTS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY
RISE SO MOST SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE ON THE WET SIDE. STRONG SFC
LOW OVER FAR SE COLORADO WILL RESULT IN STRONG WEST WINDS FROM
MAINLY THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS EAST TO THE TEXAS LINE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING. ISSUED WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF EAST-CENTRAL
AND SE ZONES FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH 8 PM MDT. A TRAILING SHORT-
WAVE RIDGE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD TONIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING...AHEAD
OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIVING SEWD THROUGH THE
WESTERN GREAT BASIN. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
FAVOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

NAM...GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE MAIN
WIDESPREAD BAND OF RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEEP
UPPER TROUGH/LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF NM SUNDAY
MORNING. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW WILL SPREAD
EWD SUNDAY AFTERNOON TO INCLUDE THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AS WELL
AS THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. SNOW LEVELS WILL DROP TO
AROUND 7500 FEET SUNDAY MORNING BUT THE ACCUMULATING SNOW LEVEL IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE APPROXIMATELY 8500 TO 9000 FEET. FOCUS OF
PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE STATE
SUNDAY NIGHT. ECMWF DROPS THE LOW SEWD THROUGH NM A BIT FARTHER
SOUTH THAN THE GFS AND IS THEREFORE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
(INCLUDING EAST-CENTRAL NM INCLUDING INTERSTATE 40) WITH THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS FOR MONDAY. LOW LEVEL ELY PUSH ON
THE BACKSIDE OF THE MID-LEVEL LOW CIRCULATION SENDS THE
EQUIVALENT OF A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT THROUGH/OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND WEST- CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. MODELS SPITTING OUT OVER AN INCH OF RAIN OVER FAR NE NM
BY MONDAY EVENING. AT THIS POINT IN TIME...IT APPEARS THAT MOST
LOCATIONS IN THE NORTHERN TWO- THIRDS OF THE STATE SHOULD RECEIVE
WETTING RAINFALL (0.10" OR GREATER) WITH MANY LOCATIONS ON TRACK
FOR BETWEEN A QUARTER AND A HALF INCH. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE
CONFINED TO SKI AREAS ON UP TO THE PEAKS. FIVE TO EIGHT INCHES OF THE
WHITE STUFF ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF WEST-
CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NM WITH UP TO ONE FOOT POSSIBLE NEAR AND ABOVE
TIMBERLINE IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
EASTERN SUB-RANGES SUCH AS CIMMARON AND CULEBRA.

THE CLOSED UPPER LEVEL IS PROGGED TO SHIFT EWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT AND TUESDAY. PLENTY OF RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS
ALONG WITH A 70KT NELY JET GETS SCATTERED MAINLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING TUESDAY AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF AGREE
THAT A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS OVER WESTERN NM
WEDNESDAY...BECOMING CENTERED OVER NM THURSDAY. RIDGE SLIDES EAST
LATE IN THE WEEK WITH THE NEXT CHANCES FOR PRECIP POSSIBLE OVER
THE WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
COOLER AND NOT AS DRY TODAY WITH MORE CLOUDS AND AN INCREASE IN
CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION AS THE UPPER LOW OPENS UP AND
MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO. WINDS WILL BE STRONGER...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WHERE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DIP BELOW CRITICAL THRESHOLD. THAT SAID...HAINES OF 4 AND
TEMPERATURES NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THERE WILL PRECLUDE A
WARNING ISSUANCE. GOOD TO EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY FORECAST
CENTRAL AND WEST TONIGHT...WITH SOME SHORT-LIVED WARMING/DRYING ON
SATURDAY.

THE ANOMALOUSLY COLD UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEAST SATURDAY AND MOVE OVER NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. A SIGNIFICANT COOLING/MOISTENING TREND WILL BE
IN PLAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS WHERE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A
SIGNIFICANT WETTING EVENT IN THE DIFLUENT REGION OF THE UPPER LOW
WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT IN THE MIX. SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY ABOVE 9000 FEET...MAINLY IN THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO MOUNTAINS. BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR A BONUS ROUND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED
WITH A TRAILING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

A PRONOUNCED WARMING/DRYING TREND IS FORECAST FROM MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK AS A RIDGE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING UPPER LOW WITH NO
MAJOR WIND SYSTEMS IN SIGHT PER THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL
SOLUTIONS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ENCROACH UPON NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO SLOWLY
SPREAD INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...EVENTUALLY WORKING INTO SOME
CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. INITIALLY VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE...AND CEILINGS
WILL NOT BE LOWERED MUCH...BUT GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 35 TO 40 KT
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY GIVEN SHOWER OR STORM ON A BRIEF AND
LOCAL SCALE. MORE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TOWARD
24/0900 TO 24/1400UTC...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD STILL MOSTLY STAY IN
THE VFR CATEGORY. THE WINDS WILL ALSO TURN WESTERLY INTO FRIDAY
AS THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AND GUSTS WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE THE WINDS WILL STAY QUITE STRONG INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS PERIODICALLY REACHING 35 TO 45 KT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  40  65  39 /  10  10  20  30
DULCE...........................  58  30  60  30 /  30  10  30  40
CUBA............................  57  32  62  33 /  30  10  20  20
GALLUP..........................  60  31  63  31 /  20  10  20  20
EL MORRO........................  53  31  59  32 /  30  10  10  20
GRANTS..........................  58  27  63  29 /  20  10   5  20
QUEMADO.........................  53  32  60  34 /  30   5  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  65  38  71  38 /  20   5   0  10
CHAMA...........................  55  28  57  28 /  40  10  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  40  60  42 /  40  10  20  10
PECOS...........................  55  37  61  38 /  20   5   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  57  26  62  27 /  40   5  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  48  29  52  29 /  50  10  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  51  24  55  24 /  40   5  10  10
TAOS............................  56  30  61  30 /  30   5  10  10
MORA............................  54  37  61  36 /  30   5   0  10
ESPANOLA........................  61  41  66  42 /  30   5  10   5
SANTA FE........................  56  39  62  41 /  30   5   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  61  34  66  36 /  30   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  44  69  48 /  30   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  43  71  47 /  30   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  67  38  73  43 /  20   5   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  66  43  72  46 /  20   5   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  69  37  74  41 /  20   5   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  65  44  71  48 /  20   5   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  70  41  76  47 /  10   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  58  36  63  40 /  50   5   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  60  34  65  36 /  40   5   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  62  28  66  32 /  40   5   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  60  34  64  37 /  40   5   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  62  38  66  42 /  20   5   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  66  42  71  45 /  20   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  62  37  66  40 /  10   5   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  60  37  66  39 /  30   5   5   5
RATON...........................  64  34  70  35 /  30   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  64  37  70  38 /  20   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  62  37  66  37 /  20   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  73  46  77  46 /  20   0   0   0
ROY.............................  66  38  71  39 /  20   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  73  49  78  49 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  72  47  75  46 /  10   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  79  47  82  47 /  10   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  78  45  78  47 /  10   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  79  48  79  49 /  10   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  76  47  78  49 /  10   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  79  46  82  48 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  70  44  74  47 /   5   0   0   0
ELK.............................  63  41  67  45 /   5   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ523-526-529-531>540.

&&

$$

33


















000
FXUS65 KABQ 240536
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1136 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ENCROACH UPON NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO SLOWLY
SPREAD INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...EVENTUALLY WORKING INTO SOME
CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. INITIALLY VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE...AND CEILINGS
WILL NOT BE LOWERED MUCH...BUT GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 35 TO 40 KT
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY GIVEN SHOWER OR STORM ON A BRIEF AND
LOCAL SCALE. MORE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TOWARD
24/0900 TO 24/1400UTC...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD STILL MOSTLY STAY IN
THE VFR CATEGORY. THE WINDS WILL ALSO TURN WESTERLY INTO FRIDAY
AS THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AND GUSTS WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE THE WINDS WILL STAY QUITE STRONG INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS PERIODICALLY REACHING 35 TO 45 KT.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...255 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
TWO STORMS TO IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...ONE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE NEXT ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FIRST
SYSTEM...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. IT IS THE SECOND SYSTEM
THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MUCH NEEDED...WIDESPREAD AND
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. A DRYING AND
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM NUMBER ONE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA. IT WILL MOVE NE AND
CROSS NM FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM HIGHER TO
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SURFACE IS BONE DRY OVER THE W AND
CENTRAL ZONES AND WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP. WILL GO WITH
MOSTLY DRY ACTIVITY THIS EVENING EXCEPT ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AM
SHOULD BE LIGHT. FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME DECENT RAINFALL...BUT
THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND
MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT IN THE FAR EAST.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL CROSS NM SATURDAY BUT THE SECOND STORM
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL COME FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT DIVES
SE AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER AZ SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STORM WILL
THEN ADVANCE SLOWLY E ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL GIVE THE REGION AN OPPORTUNITY TO PICK UP SOME DECENT RAIN
AMOUNTS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND WILL THEM COMMENCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND NEXT
WEEK. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THE EAST
THROUGH 6PM. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO NEAR SINGLE DIGITS IN A COUPLE
PLACES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THIS
EVENING REGARDING CRITICAL CONDITIONS. FARTHER WEST...DRY AND GUSTY
SHOWERS ARE EXPANDING AND MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST. GUIDANCE SHOWS
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE RG VALLEY THIS
EVENING. RECOVERIES WILL TREND HIGHER TONIGHT AS A RESULT OVER THE
WEST...WITH SPOTTY WETTING PRECIP AMOUNTS MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN POOR/FAIR OVER EASTERN CENTRAL AREAS.

WILL HOLD ONTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY WITH SHORTER DURATION OF MARGINAL CRITICAL HUMIDITIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LEAD
TO A MITIGATING EFFECT. ALSO...INSTABILITY IS TRENDING DOWN ON THE
LATEST HAINES INDICES...BUT MARGINAL 5 VALUES WERE STILL NOTED. THE
WIND WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY LEVEL
SPEEDS BTWN NOON AND 6PM. AGAIN FARTHER WEST...SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A STORM WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST WITH VERY SMALL WETTING
FOOTPRINTS IF ANY AT ALL. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION A REBOUND IN MAX TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL MOST
AREAS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR
NOW.

AN OVERALL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A COLD AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 60/INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL AND
VERY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NM. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. VENT RATES
ALSO DETERIORATE TO POOR/GOOD BOTH DAYS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM
EXITING INTO TEXAS AND LEAVING BEHIND A CONTINUED MOIST AND COOL
AIRMASS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 240536
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1136 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ENCROACH UPON NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO SLOWLY
SPREAD INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO...EVENTUALLY WORKING INTO SOME
CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. INITIALLY VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE...AND CEILINGS
WILL NOT BE LOWERED MUCH...BUT GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 35 TO 40 KT
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY GIVEN SHOWER OR STORM ON A BRIEF AND
LOCAL SCALE. MORE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TOWARD
24/0900 TO 24/1400UTC...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD STILL MOSTLY STAY IN
THE VFR CATEGORY. THE WINDS WILL ALSO TURN WESTERLY INTO FRIDAY
AS THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AND GUSTS WILL
STRENGTHEN DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE THE WINDS WILL STAY QUITE STRONG INTO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH
GUSTS PERIODICALLY REACHING 35 TO 45 KT.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...255 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
TWO STORMS TO IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...ONE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE NEXT ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FIRST
SYSTEM...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. IT IS THE SECOND SYSTEM
THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MUCH NEEDED...WIDESPREAD AND
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. A DRYING AND
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM NUMBER ONE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA. IT WILL MOVE NE AND
CROSS NM FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM HIGHER TO
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SURFACE IS BONE DRY OVER THE W AND
CENTRAL ZONES AND WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP. WILL GO WITH
MOSTLY DRY ACTIVITY THIS EVENING EXCEPT ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AM
SHOULD BE LIGHT. FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME DECENT RAINFALL...BUT
THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND
MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT IN THE FAR EAST.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL CROSS NM SATURDAY BUT THE SECOND STORM
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL COME FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT DIVES
SE AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER AZ SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STORM WILL
THEN ADVANCE SLOWLY E ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL GIVE THE REGION AN OPPORTUNITY TO PICK UP SOME DECENT RAIN
AMOUNTS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND WILL THEM COMMENCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND NEXT
WEEK. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THE EAST
THROUGH 6PM. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO NEAR SINGLE DIGITS IN A COUPLE
PLACES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THIS
EVENING REGARDING CRITICAL CONDITIONS. FARTHER WEST...DRY AND GUSTY
SHOWERS ARE EXPANDING AND MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST. GUIDANCE SHOWS
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE RG VALLEY THIS
EVENING. RECOVERIES WILL TREND HIGHER TONIGHT AS A RESULT OVER THE
WEST...WITH SPOTTY WETTING PRECIP AMOUNTS MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN POOR/FAIR OVER EASTERN CENTRAL AREAS.

WILL HOLD ONTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY WITH SHORTER DURATION OF MARGINAL CRITICAL HUMIDITIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LEAD
TO A MITIGATING EFFECT. ALSO...INSTABILITY IS TRENDING DOWN ON THE
LATEST HAINES INDICES...BUT MARGINAL 5 VALUES WERE STILL NOTED. THE
WIND WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY LEVEL
SPEEDS BTWN NOON AND 6PM. AGAIN FARTHER WEST...SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A STORM WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST WITH VERY SMALL WETTING
FOOTPRINTS IF ANY AT ALL. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION A REBOUND IN MAX TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL MOST
AREAS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR
NOW.

AN OVERALL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A COLD AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 60/INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL AND
VERY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NM. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. VENT RATES
ALSO DETERIORATE TO POOR/GOOD BOTH DAYS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM
EXITING INTO TEXAS AND LEAVING BEHIND A CONTINUED MOIST AND COOL
AIRMASS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 232347 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ENCROACH UPON NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO SLOWLY
SPREAD INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING...WORKING INTO SOME
CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. INITIALLY VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE...AND CEILINGS
WILL NOT BE LOWERED MUCH...BUT GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 35 TO 40 KT
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY GIVEN SHOWER OR STORM ON A BRIEF AND
LOCAL SCALE. MORE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD STILL MOSTLY
STAY IN THE VFR CATEGORY. THE WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AND
GUSTS WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE THE WINDS WILL STAY QUITE STRONG INTO FRIDAY
WITH GUSTS PERIODICALLY REACHING 35 TO 40 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...255 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
TWO STORMS TO IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...ONE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE NEXT ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FIRST
SYSTEM...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. IT IS THE SECOND SYSTEM
THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MUCH NEEDED...WIDESPREAD AND
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. A DRYING AND
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM NUMBER ONE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA. IT WILL MOVE NE AND
CROSS NM FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM HIGHER TO
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SURFACE IS BONE DRY OVER THE W AND
CENTRAL ZONES AND WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP. WILL GO WITH
MOSTLY DRY ACTIVITY THIS EVENING EXCEPT ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AM
SHOULD BE LIGHT. FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME DECENT RAINFALL...BUT
THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND
MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT IN THE FAR EAST.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL CROSS NM SATURDAY BUT THE SECOND STORM
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL COME FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT DIVES
SE AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER AZ SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STORM WILL
THEN ADVANCE SLOWLY E ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL GIVE THE REGION AN OPPORTUNITY TO PICK UP SOME DECENT RAIN
AMOUNTS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND WILL THEM COMMENCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND NEXT
WEEK. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THE EAST
THROUGH 6PM. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO NEAR SINGLE DIGITS IN A COUPLE
PLACES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THIS
EVENING REGARDING CRITICAL CONDITIONS. FARTHER WEST...DRY AND GUSTY
SHOWERS ARE EXPANDING AND MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST. GUIDANCE SHOWS
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE RG VALLEY THIS
EVENING. RECOVERIES WILL TREND HIGHER TONIGHT AS A RESULT OVER THE
WEST...WITH SPOTTY WETTING PRECIP AMOUNTS MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN POOR/FAIR OVER EASTERN CENTRAL AREAS.

WILL HOLD ONTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY WITH SHORTER DURATION OF MARGINAL CRITICAL HUMIDITIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LEAD
TO A MITIGATING EFFECT. ALSO...INSTABILITY IS TRENDING DOWN ON THE
LATEST HAINES INDICES...BUT MARGINAL 5 VALUES WERE STILL NOTED. THE
WIND WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY LEVEL
SPEEDS BTWN NOON AND 6PM. AGAIN FARTHER WEST...SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A STORM WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST WITH VERY SMALL WETTING
FOOTPRINTS IF ANY AT ALL. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION A REBOUND IN MAX TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL MOST
AREAS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR
NOW.

AN OVERALL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A COLD AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 60/INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL AND
VERY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NM. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. VENT RATES
ALSO DETERIORATE TO POOR/GOOD BOTH DAYS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM
EXITING INTO TEXAS AND LEAVING BEHIND A CONTINUED MOIST AND COOL
AIRMASS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 232347 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ENCROACH UPON NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO SLOWLY
SPREAD INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING...WORKING INTO SOME
CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. INITIALLY VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE...AND CEILINGS
WILL NOT BE LOWERED MUCH...BUT GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 35 TO 40 KT
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY GIVEN SHOWER OR STORM ON A BRIEF AND
LOCAL SCALE. MORE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD STILL MOSTLY
STAY IN THE VFR CATEGORY. THE WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AND
GUSTS WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE THE WINDS WILL STAY QUITE STRONG INTO FRIDAY
WITH GUSTS PERIODICALLY REACHING 35 TO 40 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...255 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
TWO STORMS TO IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...ONE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE NEXT ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FIRST
SYSTEM...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. IT IS THE SECOND SYSTEM
THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MUCH NEEDED...WIDESPREAD AND
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. A DRYING AND
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM NUMBER ONE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA. IT WILL MOVE NE AND
CROSS NM FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM HIGHER TO
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SURFACE IS BONE DRY OVER THE W AND
CENTRAL ZONES AND WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP. WILL GO WITH
MOSTLY DRY ACTIVITY THIS EVENING EXCEPT ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AM
SHOULD BE LIGHT. FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME DECENT RAINFALL...BUT
THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND
MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT IN THE FAR EAST.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL CROSS NM SATURDAY BUT THE SECOND STORM
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL COME FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT DIVES
SE AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER AZ SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STORM WILL
THEN ADVANCE SLOWLY E ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL GIVE THE REGION AN OPPORTUNITY TO PICK UP SOME DECENT RAIN
AMOUNTS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND WILL THEM COMMENCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND NEXT
WEEK. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THE EAST
THROUGH 6PM. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO NEAR SINGLE DIGITS IN A COUPLE
PLACES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THIS
EVENING REGARDING CRITICAL CONDITIONS. FARTHER WEST...DRY AND GUSTY
SHOWERS ARE EXPANDING AND MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST. GUIDANCE SHOWS
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE RG VALLEY THIS
EVENING. RECOVERIES WILL TREND HIGHER TONIGHT AS A RESULT OVER THE
WEST...WITH SPOTTY WETTING PRECIP AMOUNTS MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN POOR/FAIR OVER EASTERN CENTRAL AREAS.

WILL HOLD ONTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY WITH SHORTER DURATION OF MARGINAL CRITICAL HUMIDITIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LEAD
TO A MITIGATING EFFECT. ALSO...INSTABILITY IS TRENDING DOWN ON THE
LATEST HAINES INDICES...BUT MARGINAL 5 VALUES WERE STILL NOTED. THE
WIND WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY LEVEL
SPEEDS BTWN NOON AND 6PM. AGAIN FARTHER WEST...SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A STORM WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST WITH VERY SMALL WETTING
FOOTPRINTS IF ANY AT ALL. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION A REBOUND IN MAX TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL MOST
AREAS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR
NOW.

AN OVERALL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A COLD AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 60/INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL AND
VERY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NM. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. VENT RATES
ALSO DETERIORATE TO POOR/GOOD BOTH DAYS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM
EXITING INTO TEXAS AND LEAVING BEHIND A CONTINUED MOIST AND COOL
AIRMASS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 232347 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ENCROACH UPON NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO SLOWLY
SPREAD INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING...WORKING INTO SOME
CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. INITIALLY VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE...AND CEILINGS
WILL NOT BE LOWERED MUCH...BUT GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 35 TO 40 KT
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY GIVEN SHOWER OR STORM ON A BRIEF AND
LOCAL SCALE. MORE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD STILL MOSTLY
STAY IN THE VFR CATEGORY. THE WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AND
GUSTS WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE THE WINDS WILL STAY QUITE STRONG INTO FRIDAY
WITH GUSTS PERIODICALLY REACHING 35 TO 40 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...255 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
TWO STORMS TO IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...ONE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE NEXT ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FIRST
SYSTEM...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. IT IS THE SECOND SYSTEM
THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MUCH NEEDED...WIDESPREAD AND
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. A DRYING AND
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM NUMBER ONE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA. IT WILL MOVE NE AND
CROSS NM FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM HIGHER TO
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SURFACE IS BONE DRY OVER THE W AND
CENTRAL ZONES AND WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP. WILL GO WITH
MOSTLY DRY ACTIVITY THIS EVENING EXCEPT ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AM
SHOULD BE LIGHT. FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME DECENT RAINFALL...BUT
THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND
MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT IN THE FAR EAST.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL CROSS NM SATURDAY BUT THE SECOND STORM
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL COME FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT DIVES
SE AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER AZ SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STORM WILL
THEN ADVANCE SLOWLY E ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL GIVE THE REGION AN OPPORTUNITY TO PICK UP SOME DECENT RAIN
AMOUNTS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND WILL THEM COMMENCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND NEXT
WEEK. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THE EAST
THROUGH 6PM. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO NEAR SINGLE DIGITS IN A COUPLE
PLACES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THIS
EVENING REGARDING CRITICAL CONDITIONS. FARTHER WEST...DRY AND GUSTY
SHOWERS ARE EXPANDING AND MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST. GUIDANCE SHOWS
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE RG VALLEY THIS
EVENING. RECOVERIES WILL TREND HIGHER TONIGHT AS A RESULT OVER THE
WEST...WITH SPOTTY WETTING PRECIP AMOUNTS MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN POOR/FAIR OVER EASTERN CENTRAL AREAS.

WILL HOLD ONTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY WITH SHORTER DURATION OF MARGINAL CRITICAL HUMIDITIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LEAD
TO A MITIGATING EFFECT. ALSO...INSTABILITY IS TRENDING DOWN ON THE
LATEST HAINES INDICES...BUT MARGINAL 5 VALUES WERE STILL NOTED. THE
WIND WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY LEVEL
SPEEDS BTWN NOON AND 6PM. AGAIN FARTHER WEST...SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A STORM WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST WITH VERY SMALL WETTING
FOOTPRINTS IF ANY AT ALL. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION A REBOUND IN MAX TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL MOST
AREAS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR
NOW.

AN OVERALL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A COLD AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 60/INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL AND
VERY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NM. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. VENT RATES
ALSO DETERIORATE TO POOR/GOOD BOTH DAYS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM
EXITING INTO TEXAS AND LEAVING BEHIND A CONTINUED MOIST AND COOL
AIRMASS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 232347 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH WILL ENCROACH UPON NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT. EXPECT HIGH-BASED SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS TO SLOWLY
SPREAD INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING...WORKING INTO SOME
CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. INITIALLY VERY
LITTLE RAINFALL WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE SURFACE...AND CEILINGS
WILL NOT BE LOWERED MUCH...BUT GUSTY WINDS TO NEAR 35 TO 40 KT
COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY GIVEN SHOWER OR STORM ON A BRIEF AND
LOCAL SCALE. MORE POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAINFALL WILL OCCUR TOWARD
THE MIDDLE OF THE OVERNIGHT...BUT CEILINGS SHOULD STILL MOSTLY
STAY IN THE VFR CATEGORY. THE WINDS WILL TURN WESTERLY OVERNIGHT
AND INTO FRIDAY AS THE ASSOCIATED PACIFIC FRONT SWEEPS THROUGH AND
GUSTS WILL STRENGTHEN DURING THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. IN THE EASTERN
HALF OF THE STATE THE WINDS WILL STAY QUITE STRONG INTO FRIDAY
WITH GUSTS PERIODICALLY REACHING 35 TO 40 KT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...255 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
TWO STORMS TO IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...ONE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE NEXT ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FIRST
SYSTEM...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. IT IS THE SECOND SYSTEM
THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MUCH NEEDED...WIDESPREAD AND
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. A DRYING AND
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM NUMBER ONE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA. IT WILL MOVE NE AND
CROSS NM FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM HIGHER TO
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SURFACE IS BONE DRY OVER THE W AND
CENTRAL ZONES AND WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP. WILL GO WITH
MOSTLY DRY ACTIVITY THIS EVENING EXCEPT ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AM
SHOULD BE LIGHT. FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME DECENT RAINFALL...BUT
THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND
MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT IN THE FAR EAST.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL CROSS NM SATURDAY BUT THE SECOND STORM
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL COME FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT DIVES
SE AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER AZ SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STORM WILL
THEN ADVANCE SLOWLY E ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL GIVE THE REGION AN OPPORTUNITY TO PICK UP SOME DECENT RAIN
AMOUNTS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND WILL THEM COMMENCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND NEXT
WEEK. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THE EAST
THROUGH 6PM. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO NEAR SINGLE DIGITS IN A COUPLE
PLACES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THIS
EVENING REGARDING CRITICAL CONDITIONS. FARTHER WEST...DRY AND GUSTY
SHOWERS ARE EXPANDING AND MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST. GUIDANCE SHOWS
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE RG VALLEY THIS
EVENING. RECOVERIES WILL TREND HIGHER TONIGHT AS A RESULT OVER THE
WEST...WITH SPOTTY WETTING PRECIP AMOUNTS MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN POOR/FAIR OVER EASTERN CENTRAL AREAS.

WILL HOLD ONTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY WITH SHORTER DURATION OF MARGINAL CRITICAL HUMIDITIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LEAD
TO A MITIGATING EFFECT. ALSO...INSTABILITY IS TRENDING DOWN ON THE
LATEST HAINES INDICES...BUT MARGINAL 5 VALUES WERE STILL NOTED. THE
WIND WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY LEVEL
SPEEDS BTWN NOON AND 6PM. AGAIN FARTHER WEST...SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A STORM WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST WITH VERY SMALL WETTING
FOOTPRINTS IF ANY AT ALL. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION A REBOUND IN MAX TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL MOST
AREAS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR
NOW.

AN OVERALL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A COLD AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 60/INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL AND
VERY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NM. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. VENT RATES
ALSO DETERIORATE TO POOR/GOOD BOTH DAYS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM
EXITING INTO TEXAS AND LEAVING BEHIND A CONTINUED MOIST AND COOL
AIRMASS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 232055
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
255 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TWO STORMS TO IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...ONE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE NEXT ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FIRST
SYSTEM...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. IT IS THE SECOND SYSTEM
THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MUCH NEEDED...WIDESPREAD AND
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. A DRYING AND
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM NUMBER ONE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA. IT WILL MOVE NE AND
CROSS NM FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM HIGHER TO
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SURFACE IS BONE DRY OVER THE W AND
CENTRAL ZONES AND WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP. WILL GO WITH
MOSTLY DRY ACTIVITY THIS EVENING EXCEPT ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AM
SHOULD BE LIGHT. FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME DECENT RAINFALL...BUT
THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND
MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT IN THE FAR EAST.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL CROSS NM SATURDAY BUT THE SECOND STORM
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL COME FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT DIVES
SE AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER AZ SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STORM WILL
THEN ADVANCE SLOWLY E ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL GIVE THE REGION AN OPPORTUNITY TO PICK UP SOME DECENT RAIN
AMOUNTS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND WILL THEM COMMENCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND NEXT
WEEK. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THE EAST
THROUGH 6PM. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO NEAR SINGLE DIGITS IN A COUPLE
PLACES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THIS
EVENING REGARDING CRITICAL CONDITIONS. FARTHER WEST...DRY AND GUSTY
SHOWERS ARE EXPANDING AND MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST. GUIDANCE SHOWS
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE RG VALLEY THIS
EVENING. RECOVERIES WILL TREND HIGHER TONIGHT AS A RESULT OVER THE
WEST...WITH SPOTTY WETTING PRECIP AMOUNTS MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN POOR/FAIR OVER EASTERN CENTRAL AREAS.

WILL HOLD ONTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY WITH SHORTER DURATION OF MARGINAL CRITICAL HUMIDITIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LEAD
TO A MITIGATING EFFECT. ALSO...INSTABILITY IS TRENDING DOWN ON THE
LATEST HAINES INDICES...BUT MARGINAL 5 VALUES WERE STILL NOTED. THE
WIND WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY LEVEL
SPEEDS BTWN NOON AND 6PM. AGAIN FARTHER WEST...SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A STORM WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST WITH VERY SMALL WETTING
FOOTPRINTS IF ANY AT ALL. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION A REBOUND IN MAX TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL MOST
AREAS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR
NOW.

AN OVERALL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A COLD AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 60/INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL AND
VERY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NM. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. VENT RATES
ALSO DETERIORATE TO POOR/GOOD BOTH DAYS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM
EXITING INTO TEXAS AND LEAVING BEHIND A CONTINUED MOIST AND COOL
AIRMASS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE STATE EARLY TODAY AND WILL PEAK BTWN
21Z AND 01Z. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES WHERE
GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE LIKELY AROUND KLVS. FARTHER WEST...MAINLY DRY
AND GUSTY SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONT DVD
WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE RGV VALLEY TONIGHT. THICK MID LVL CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED MOST AREAS CENTRAL/WEST BY MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP FROM THE WEST
AND DRY CONDITIONS OUT ONCE AGAIN. GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  40  65  40  66 /  20  20  10  20
DULCE...........................  31  59  32  61 /  30  30  10  30
CUBA............................  35  60  35  64 /  20  30  10  20
GALLUP..........................  32  61  33  64 /  30  20  10  20
EL MORRO........................  32  56  34  60 /  40  20  10  10
GRANTS..........................  30  61  31  65 /  30  20  10  10
QUEMADO.........................  35  56  36  62 /  30  20  10  10
GLENWOOD........................  40  68  40  72 /  30  20   5   0
CHAMA...........................  28  56  30  58 /  30  30  20  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  43  58  43  61 /  20  30  10  20
PECOS...........................  39  58  39  62 /  20  20   5  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  29  59  28  64 /  20  30  10  20
RED RIVER.......................  30  49  30  54 /  30  30  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  25  53  26  57 /  20  20  10  10
TAOS............................  32  58  32  63 /  20  20  10  10
MORA............................  37  57  39  62 /  20  20  10  10
ESPANOLA........................  42  62  41  67 /  20  20  10  10
SANTA FE........................  41  59  42  63 /  20  20  10  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  37  64  38  67 /  20  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  47  67  47  69 /  20  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  46  68  46  71 /  20  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  42  70  41  73 /  20  20   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  45  69  46  73 /  20  20   5   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  40  72  40  75 /  20  10   5   0
RIO RANCHO......................  47  68  47  72 /  20  20   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  45  73  44  77 /  20  10   5   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  42  59  40  63 /  20  20  10  10
TIJERAS.........................  39  62  37  65 /  20  20   5  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  32  65  32  67 /  10  20   5   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  38  63  37  66 /  20  10   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  43  64  40  67 /  20  10   5   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  47  68  44  72 /  10  10   5   0
RUIDOSO.........................  41  64  38  67 /  20  20   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  39  61  39  67 /  20  20  10  10
RATON...........................  36  65  36  72 /  10  20   5   5
SPRINGER........................  39  66  40  71 /  10  10   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  38  63  39  67 /  20  20   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  47  73  45  78 /  10  10   5   0
ROY.............................  41  68  40  73 /  10  10   5   0
CONCHAS.........................  51  75  48  78 /  10  10   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  48  73  46  76 /  10  10   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  48  79  46  83 /  10   5   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  47  76  45  79 /  10   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  51  77  48  80 /  10   5   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  49  76  47  79 /  10   5   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  49  79  47  83 /  10   5   0   0
PICACHO.........................  49  70  45  74 /  10  10   0   0
ELK.............................  44  64  42  69 /  20  10   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

&&

$$

40






000
FXUS65 KABQ 232055
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
255 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TWO STORMS TO IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...ONE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE NEXT ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FIRST
SYSTEM...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. IT IS THE SECOND SYSTEM
THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MUCH NEEDED...WIDESPREAD AND
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. A DRYING AND
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM NUMBER ONE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA. IT WILL MOVE NE AND
CROSS NM FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM HIGHER TO
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SURFACE IS BONE DRY OVER THE W AND
CENTRAL ZONES AND WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP. WILL GO WITH
MOSTLY DRY ACTIVITY THIS EVENING EXCEPT ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AM
SHOULD BE LIGHT. FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME DECENT RAINFALL...BUT
THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND
MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT IN THE FAR EAST.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL CROSS NM SATURDAY BUT THE SECOND STORM
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL COME FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT DIVES
SE AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER AZ SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STORM WILL
THEN ADVANCE SLOWLY E ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL GIVE THE REGION AN OPPORTUNITY TO PICK UP SOME DECENT RAIN
AMOUNTS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND WILL THEM COMMENCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND NEXT
WEEK. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THE EAST
THROUGH 6PM. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO NEAR SINGLE DIGITS IN A COUPLE
PLACES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THIS
EVENING REGARDING CRITICAL CONDITIONS. FARTHER WEST...DRY AND GUSTY
SHOWERS ARE EXPANDING AND MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST. GUIDANCE SHOWS
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE RG VALLEY THIS
EVENING. RECOVERIES WILL TREND HIGHER TONIGHT AS A RESULT OVER THE
WEST...WITH SPOTTY WETTING PRECIP AMOUNTS MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN POOR/FAIR OVER EASTERN CENTRAL AREAS.

WILL HOLD ONTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY WITH SHORTER DURATION OF MARGINAL CRITICAL HUMIDITIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LEAD
TO A MITIGATING EFFECT. ALSO...INSTABILITY IS TRENDING DOWN ON THE
LATEST HAINES INDICES...BUT MARGINAL 5 VALUES WERE STILL NOTED. THE
WIND WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY LEVEL
SPEEDS BTWN NOON AND 6PM. AGAIN FARTHER WEST...SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A STORM WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST WITH VERY SMALL WETTING
FOOTPRINTS IF ANY AT ALL. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION A REBOUND IN MAX TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL MOST
AREAS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR
NOW.

AN OVERALL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A COLD AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 60/INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL AND
VERY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NM. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. VENT RATES
ALSO DETERIORATE TO POOR/GOOD BOTH DAYS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM
EXITING INTO TEXAS AND LEAVING BEHIND A CONTINUED MOIST AND COOL
AIRMASS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE STATE EARLY TODAY AND WILL PEAK BTWN
21Z AND 01Z. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES WHERE
GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE LIKELY AROUND KLVS. FARTHER WEST...MAINLY DRY
AND GUSTY SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONT DVD
WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE RGV VALLEY TONIGHT. THICK MID LVL CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED MOST AREAS CENTRAL/WEST BY MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP FROM THE WEST
AND DRY CONDITIONS OUT ONCE AGAIN. GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  40  65  40  66 /  20  20  10  20
DULCE...........................  31  59  32  61 /  30  30  10  30
CUBA............................  35  60  35  64 /  20  30  10  20
GALLUP..........................  32  61  33  64 /  30  20  10  20
EL MORRO........................  32  56  34  60 /  40  20  10  10
GRANTS..........................  30  61  31  65 /  30  20  10  10
QUEMADO.........................  35  56  36  62 /  30  20  10  10
GLENWOOD........................  40  68  40  72 /  30  20   5   0
CHAMA...........................  28  56  30  58 /  30  30  20  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  43  58  43  61 /  20  30  10  20
PECOS...........................  39  58  39  62 /  20  20   5  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  29  59  28  64 /  20  30  10  20
RED RIVER.......................  30  49  30  54 /  30  30  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  25  53  26  57 /  20  20  10  10
TAOS............................  32  58  32  63 /  20  20  10  10
MORA............................  37  57  39  62 /  20  20  10  10
ESPANOLA........................  42  62  41  67 /  20  20  10  10
SANTA FE........................  41  59  42  63 /  20  20  10  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  37  64  38  67 /  20  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  47  67  47  69 /  20  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  46  68  46  71 /  20  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  42  70  41  73 /  20  20   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  45  69  46  73 /  20  20   5   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  40  72  40  75 /  20  10   5   0
RIO RANCHO......................  47  68  47  72 /  20  20   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  45  73  44  77 /  20  10   5   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  42  59  40  63 /  20  20  10  10
TIJERAS.........................  39  62  37  65 /  20  20   5  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  32  65  32  67 /  10  20   5   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  38  63  37  66 /  20  10   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  43  64  40  67 /  20  10   5   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  47  68  44  72 /  10  10   5   0
RUIDOSO.........................  41  64  38  67 /  20  20   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  39  61  39  67 /  20  20  10  10
RATON...........................  36  65  36  72 /  10  20   5   5
SPRINGER........................  39  66  40  71 /  10  10   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  38  63  39  67 /  20  20   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  47  73  45  78 /  10  10   5   0
ROY.............................  41  68  40  73 /  10  10   5   0
CONCHAS.........................  51  75  48  78 /  10  10   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  48  73  46  76 /  10  10   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  48  79  46  83 /  10   5   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  47  76  45  79 /  10   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  51  77  48  80 /  10   5   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  49  76  47  79 /  10   5   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  49  79  47  83 /  10   5   0   0
PICACHO.........................  49  70  45  74 /  10  10   0   0
ELK.............................  44  64  42  69 /  20  10   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

&&

$$

40





000
FXUS65 KABQ 232055
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
255 PM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
TWO STORMS TO IMPACT NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...ONE TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE NEXT ONE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED WITH THE FIRST
SYSTEM...MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND WEST. IT IS THE SECOND SYSTEM
THAT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING MUCH NEEDED...WIDESPREAD AND
SUBSTANTIAL PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST AREA. A DRYING AND
WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW LATER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STORM NUMBER ONE IS CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN CA. IT WILL MOVE NE AND
CROSS NM FRIDAY. MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE FROM HIGHER TO
LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SURFACE IS BONE DRY OVER THE W AND
CENTRAL ZONES AND WILL TAKE A WHILE TO MOISTEN UP. WILL GO WITH
MOSTLY DRY ACTIVITY THIS EVENING EXCEPT ON THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.
RAIN SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY AM
SHOULD BE LIGHT. FRIDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE UNSTABLE WITH SHOWERS
AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS TRYING TO PRODUCE SOME DECENT RAINFALL...BUT
THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER AND
MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL EXCEPT IN THE FAR EAST.

A SHORT WAVE RIDGE WILL CROSS NM SATURDAY BUT THE SECOND STORM
WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE AREA BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS DISTURBANCE
WILL COME FROM THE PACIFIC NW AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS IT DIVES
SE AND FORMS A CLOSED LOW OVER AZ SATURDAY NIGHT. THE STORM WILL
THEN ADVANCE SLOWLY E ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THIS
WILL GIVE THE REGION AN OPPORTUNITY TO PICK UP SOME DECENT RAIN
AMOUNTS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL BE BELOW NORMAL. A DRYING
AND WARMING TREND WILL THEM COMMENCE FOR WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND NEXT
WEEK. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS DEVELOPING OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND EASTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING OVER THE EAST
THROUGH 6PM. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO NEAR SINGLE DIGITS IN A COUPLE
PLACES ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS. OTHERWISE...LITTLE CHANGE THROUGH THIS
EVENING REGARDING CRITICAL CONDITIONS. FARTHER WEST...DRY AND GUSTY
SHOWERS ARE EXPANDING AND MOVING QUICKLY NORTHEAST. GUIDANCE SHOWS
THIS ACTIVITY CONTINUING TO EXPAND EASTWARD INTO THE RG VALLEY THIS
EVENING. RECOVERIES WILL TREND HIGHER TONIGHT AS A RESULT OVER THE
WEST...WITH SPOTTY WETTING PRECIP AMOUNTS MAINLY OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
AREAS. RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN POOR/FAIR OVER EASTERN CENTRAL AREAS.

WILL HOLD ONTO THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST DUE
TO UNCERTAINTY WITH SHORTER DURATION OF MARGINAL CRITICAL HUMIDITIES
IN THE AFTERNOON. COLD AIR ADVECTION AND SOME CLOUD COVER MAY LEAD
TO A MITIGATING EFFECT. ALSO...INSTABILITY IS TRENDING DOWN ON THE
LATEST HAINES INDICES...BUT MARGINAL 5 VALUES WERE STILL NOTED. THE
WIND WILL CERTAINLY BE THERE WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIND ADVISORY LEVEL
SPEEDS BTWN NOON AND 6PM. AGAIN FARTHER WEST...SHOWERS AND PERHAPS
A STORM WILL CONTINUE TO RACE NORTHEAST WITH VERY SMALL WETTING
FOOTPRINTS IF ANY AT ALL. NOT MUCH CHANGE IS IN STORE FOR SATURDAY
WITH THE EXCEPTION A REBOUND IN MAX TEMPS BACK TOWARD NORMAL MOST
AREAS. ANOTHER ROUND OF MARGINAL CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
FOR THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...BUT WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH FOR
NOW.

AN OVERALL UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL TAKE SHAPE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS A COLD AND MOIST STORM SYSTEM SLIDES EASTWARD ALONG THE
HIGHWAY 60/INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR. WIDESPREAD WETTING RAINFALL AND
VERY HIGH TERRAIN SNOW IS EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NM. TEMPS WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD. VENT RATES
ALSO DETERIORATE TO POOR/GOOD BOTH DAYS. GUIDANCE SHOWS THE SYSTEM
EXITING INTO TEXAS AND LEAVING BEHIND A CONTINUED MOIST AND COOL
AIRMASS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE STATE EARLY TODAY AND WILL PEAK BTWN
21Z AND 01Z. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES WHERE
GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE LIKELY AROUND KLVS. FARTHER WEST...MAINLY DRY
AND GUSTY SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONT DVD
WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE RGV VALLEY TONIGHT. THICK MID LVL CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED MOST AREAS CENTRAL/WEST BY MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP FROM THE WEST
AND DRY CONDITIONS OUT ONCE AGAIN. GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  40  65  40  66 /  20  20  10  20
DULCE...........................  31  59  32  61 /  30  30  10  30
CUBA............................  35  60  35  64 /  20  30  10  20
GALLUP..........................  32  61  33  64 /  30  20  10  20
EL MORRO........................  32  56  34  60 /  40  20  10  10
GRANTS..........................  30  61  31  65 /  30  20  10  10
QUEMADO.........................  35  56  36  62 /  30  20  10  10
GLENWOOD........................  40  68  40  72 /  30  20   5   0
CHAMA...........................  28  56  30  58 /  30  30  20  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  43  58  43  61 /  20  30  10  20
PECOS...........................  39  58  39  62 /  20  20   5  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  29  59  28  64 /  20  30  10  20
RED RIVER.......................  30  49  30  54 /  30  30  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  25  53  26  57 /  20  20  10  10
TAOS............................  32  58  32  63 /  20  20  10  10
MORA............................  37  57  39  62 /  20  20  10  10
ESPANOLA........................  42  62  41  67 /  20  20  10  10
SANTA FE........................  41  59  42  63 /  20  20  10  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  37  64  38  67 /  20  20  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  47  67  47  69 /  20  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  46  68  46  71 /  20  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  42  70  41  73 /  20  20   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  45  69  46  73 /  20  20   5   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  40  72  40  75 /  20  10   5   0
RIO RANCHO......................  47  68  47  72 /  20  20   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  45  73  44  77 /  20  10   5   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  42  59  40  63 /  20  20  10  10
TIJERAS.........................  39  62  37  65 /  20  20   5  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  32  65  32  67 /  10  20   5   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  38  63  37  66 /  20  10   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  43  64  40  67 /  20  10   5   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  47  68  44  72 /  10  10   5   0
RUIDOSO.........................  41  64  38  67 /  20  20   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  39  61  39  67 /  20  20  10  10
RATON...........................  36  65  36  72 /  10  20   5   5
SPRINGER........................  39  66  40  71 /  10  10   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  38  63  39  67 /  20  20   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  47  73  45  78 /  10  10   5   0
ROY.............................  41  68  40  73 /  10  10   5   0
CONCHAS.........................  51  75  48  78 /  10  10   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  48  73  46  76 /  10  10   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  48  79  46  83 /  10   5   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  47  76  45  79 /  10   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  51  77  48  80 /  10   5   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  49  76  47  79 /  10   5   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  49  79  47  83 /  10   5   0   0
PICACHO.........................  49  70  45  74 /  10  10   0   0
ELK.............................  44  64  42  69 /  20  10   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

&&

$$

40





000
FXUS65 KABQ 231757 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1157 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE STATE EARLY TODAY AND WILL PEAK BTWN
21Z AND 01Z. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES WHERE
GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE LIKELY AROUND KLVS. FARTHER WEST...MAINLY DRY
AND GUSTY SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONT DVD
WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE RGV VALLEY TONIGHT. THICK MID LVL CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED MOST AREAS CENTRAL/WEST BY MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP FROM THE WEST
AND DRY CONDITIONS OUT ONCE AGAIN. GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...542 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015...
.UPDATE...
MAIN AVIATION IMPACT TODAY WILL BE FROM STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST AS WELL...BUT NO SUB-VFR VSBY LIMITATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST NEAR 35KTS AT KLVS AND KTCC.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR CIGS TO DEVELOP CENTRAL AND WEST AND
GRADUALLY LOWER...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MAINLY DRY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
AS LIFT AND MOISTURE INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
INCREASE. A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN IS EXPECTED TO BRING COLDER AND WETTER WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ABOVE ABOUT 8000 FEET SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ORPHANED WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SRN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TO PHASE
WITH A TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
FLOW ALOFT OVER NRN MEXICO SHOWING SIGNS OF BACKING SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER FAR SRN/SERN NM. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...THE DRYLINE HAS PUSHED QUITE A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THIS RETREATING DRYLINE OVER THE NE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BONE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM WILL
MAKE WHATEVER HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON DRY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
IMPACT. STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OVER NE NM WILL MAKE FOR STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM THE EAST- CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHWARD
TO THE NE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASES OVERNIGHT.
NAM12 AND GFS AGREE THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WRN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PHASING TROUGHS MOVES OVER. A RELATIVELY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT KEEPS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NRN MOUNTAINS.

A TRANSITORY WEAK RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVER FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
IMPRESSIVELY DEEP UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH/SEWD THROUGH THE PACNW.
GFS AND ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER...DROPPING
THE LOW SEWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIP MOVES INTO WRN NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACK AND IS THEREFORE SLOWER WITH PRECIPITATION
ONSET OVER THE WEST. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT LATE-DAY SUNDAY WILL BE
WET MOST AREAS AND MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL. IN
FACT...SNOW LEVELS DROP CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT 8K FT. STILL TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN SNOW
AMOUNTS BUT THE WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS COULD END UP WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IF NOT MORE.

AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES EWD THROUGH CENTRAL/SRN NM SUNDAY
NIGHT...WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
NM. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND BRINGS
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP INTO ERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS MONDAY. CONTINUED THE TREND OF UPPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS TRENDING TEMPERATURES DOWN.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT THE QUASI-PERMANENT RIDGE RETURNS TO
THE WEST COAST TUESDAY AND BEGINS TO FOLD OVER OR TRANSLATE EWD
TOWARD MIDWEEK. BOTH MODELS ARE DRY BUT EXTENT TO WHICH STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER NM MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE ON
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LAYER MOISTURE HAS INTRUDED FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXCELLENT THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR TO FAIR. TODAY`S CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT IS LOOKING
LESS CLEAR-CUT WITH THE EXCELLENT RECOVERY EAST...WHERE GREEN UP IS
UNDERWAY GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST GROWING SEASON INDEX GRAPHIC FROM THE
21ST. ANOTHER POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUDS RESULTING
FROM MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THAT SAID...HAINES OF 5-6 AND A SOLID HIT ON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND WIND THRESHOLDS...COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...JUSTIFIES KEEPING THE WARNING IN PLACE. HOWEVER...
WILL CANCEL THE WATCH FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY GIVEN THE MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE EVENT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

THE BAJA LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO OPEN UP OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW MEXICO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A COOLING/MOISTENING TREND IN PLAY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. STILL LOOKING AT A MARGINAL CRITICAL EVENT ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN GIVEN GREEN UP
CONSIDERATIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THERE WILL FORGO A WATCH
AT THIS TIME.

HIGHER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THIS CYCLE ON A MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING/MOISTENING TREND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO. CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION ARE
LOOKING UP WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTH AND
EAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A WARMING/DRYING TREND WILL FOLLOW THE
UPPER LOW DEPARTURE FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH NO MAJOR WIND
SYSTEMS IN SIGHT GIVEN THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 231757 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1157 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WINDS ARE INCREASING OVER THE STATE EARLY TODAY AND WILL PEAK BTWN
21Z AND 01Z. STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED ALONG THE EAST SLOPES WHERE
GUSTS TO 35 KTS ARE LIKELY AROUND KLVS. FARTHER WEST...MAINLY DRY
AND GUSTY SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND WEST OF THE CONT DVD
WILL MOVE EAST TOWARD THE RGV VALLEY TONIGHT. THICK MID LVL CLOUD
COVER EXPECTED MOST AREAS CENTRAL/WEST BY MIDNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL
HANG AROUND THROUGH THE MORNING BEFORE WINDS PICK UP FROM THE WEST
AND DRY CONDITIONS OUT ONCE AGAIN. GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...542 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015...
.UPDATE...
MAIN AVIATION IMPACT TODAY WILL BE FROM STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST AS WELL...BUT NO SUB-VFR VSBY LIMITATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST NEAR 35KTS AT KLVS AND KTCC.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR CIGS TO DEVELOP CENTRAL AND WEST AND
GRADUALLY LOWER...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MAINLY DRY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
AS LIFT AND MOISTURE INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
INCREASE. A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN IS EXPECTED TO BRING COLDER AND WETTER WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ABOVE ABOUT 8000 FEET SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ORPHANED WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SRN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TO PHASE
WITH A TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
FLOW ALOFT OVER NRN MEXICO SHOWING SIGNS OF BACKING SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER FAR SRN/SERN NM. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...THE DRYLINE HAS PUSHED QUITE A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THIS RETREATING DRYLINE OVER THE NE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BONE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM WILL
MAKE WHATEVER HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON DRY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
IMPACT. STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OVER NE NM WILL MAKE FOR STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM THE EAST- CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHWARD
TO THE NE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASES OVERNIGHT.
NAM12 AND GFS AGREE THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WRN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PHASING TROUGHS MOVES OVER. A RELATIVELY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT KEEPS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NRN MOUNTAINS.

A TRANSITORY WEAK RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVER FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
IMPRESSIVELY DEEP UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH/SEWD THROUGH THE PACNW.
GFS AND ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER...DROPPING
THE LOW SEWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIP MOVES INTO WRN NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACK AND IS THEREFORE SLOWER WITH PRECIPITATION
ONSET OVER THE WEST. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT LATE-DAY SUNDAY WILL BE
WET MOST AREAS AND MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL. IN
FACT...SNOW LEVELS DROP CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT 8K FT. STILL TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN SNOW
AMOUNTS BUT THE WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS COULD END UP WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IF NOT MORE.

AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES EWD THROUGH CENTRAL/SRN NM SUNDAY
NIGHT...WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
NM. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND BRINGS
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP INTO ERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS MONDAY. CONTINUED THE TREND OF UPPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS TRENDING TEMPERATURES DOWN.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT THE QUASI-PERMANENT RIDGE RETURNS TO
THE WEST COAST TUESDAY AND BEGINS TO FOLD OVER OR TRANSLATE EWD
TOWARD MIDWEEK. BOTH MODELS ARE DRY BUT EXTENT TO WHICH STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER NM MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE ON
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY. 33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LAYER MOISTURE HAS INTRUDED FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXCELLENT THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR TO FAIR. TODAY`S CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT IS LOOKING
LESS CLEAR-CUT WITH THE EXCELLENT RECOVERY EAST...WHERE GREEN UP IS
UNDERWAY GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST GROWING SEASON INDEX GRAPHIC FROM THE
21ST. ANOTHER POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUDS RESULTING
FROM MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THAT SAID...HAINES OF 5-6 AND A SOLID HIT ON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND WIND THRESHOLDS...COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...JUSTIFIES KEEPING THE WARNING IN PLACE. HOWEVER...
WILL CANCEL THE WATCH FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY GIVEN THE MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE EVENT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

THE BAJA LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO OPEN UP OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW MEXICO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A COOLING/MOISTENING TREND IN PLAY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. STILL LOOKING AT A MARGINAL CRITICAL EVENT ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN GIVEN GREEN UP
CONSIDERATIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THERE WILL FORGO A WATCH
AT THIS TIME.

HIGHER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THIS CYCLE ON A MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING/MOISTENING TREND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO. CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION ARE
LOOKING UP WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTH AND
EAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A WARMING/DRYING TREND WILL FOLLOW THE
UPPER LOW DEPARTURE FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH NO MAJOR WIND
SYSTEMS IN SIGHT GIVEN THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 231142 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
MAIN AVIATION IMPACT TODAY WILL BE FROM STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST AS WELL...BUT NO SUB-VFR VSBY LIMITATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST NEAR 35KTS AT KLVS AND KTCC.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR CIGS TO DEVELOP CENTRAL AND WEST AND
GRADUALLY LOWER...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MAINLY DRY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
AS LIFT AND MOISTURE INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
INCREASE. A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN IS EXPECTED TO BRING COLDER AND WETTER WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ABOVE ABOUT 8000 FEET SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ORPHANED WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SRN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TO PHASE
WITH A TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
FLOW ALOFT OVER NRN MEXICO SHOWING SIGNS OF BACKING SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER FAR SRN/SERN NM. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...THE DRYLINE HAS PUSHED QUITE A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THIS RETREATING DRYLINE OVER THE NE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BONE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM WILL
MAKE WHATEVER HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON DRY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
IMPACT. STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OVER NE NM WILL MAKE FOR STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM THE EAST- CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHWARD
TO THE NE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASES OVERNIGHT.
NAM12 AND GFS AGREE THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WRN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PHASING TROUGHS MOVES OVER. A RELATIVELY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT KEEPS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NRN MOUNTAINS.

A TRANSITORY WEAK RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVER FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
IMPRESSIVELY DEEP UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH/SEWD THROUGH THE PACNW.
GFS AND ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER...DROPPING
THE LOW SEWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIP MOVES INTO WRN NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACK AND IS THEREFORE SLOWER WITH PRECIPITATION
ONSET OVER THE WEST. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT LATE-DAY SUNDAY WILL BE
WET MOST AREAS AND MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL. IN
FACT...SNOW LEVELS DROP CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT 8K FT. STILL TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN SNOW
AMOUNTS BUT THE WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS COULD END UP WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IF NOT MORE.

AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES EWD THROUGH CENTRAL/SRN NM SUNDAY
NIGHT...WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
NM. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND BRINGS
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP INTO ERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS MONDAY. CONTINUED THE TREND OF UPPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS TRENDING TEMPERATURES DOWN.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT THE QUASI-PERMANENT RIDGE RETURNS TO
THE WEST COAST TUESDAY AND BEGINS TO FOLD OVER OR TRANSLATE EWD
TOWARD MIDWEEK. BOTH MODELS ARE DRY BUT EXTENT TO WHICH STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER NM MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE ON
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LAYER MOISTURE HAS INTRUDED FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXCELLENT THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR TO FAIR. TODAY`S CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT IS LOOKING
LESS CLEAR-CUT WITH THE EXCELLENT RECOVERY EAST...WHERE GREEN UP IS
UNDERWAY GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST GROWING SEASON INDEX GRAPHIC FROM THE
21ST. ANOTHER POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUDS RESULTING
FROM MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THAT SAID...HAINES OF 5-6 AND A SOLID HIT ON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND WIND THRESHOLDS...COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...JUSTIFIES KEEPING THE WARNING IN PLACE. HOWEVER...
WILL CANCEL THE WATCH FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY GIVEN THE MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE EVENT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

THE BAJA LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO OPEN UP OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW MEXICO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A COOLING/MOISTENING TREND IN PLAY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. STILL LOOKING AT A MARGINAL CRITICAL EVENT ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN GIVEN GREEN UP
CONSIDERATIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THERE WILL FORGO A WATCH
AT THIS TIME.

HIGHER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THIS CYCLE ON A MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING/MOISTENING TREND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO. CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION ARE
LOOKING UP WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTH AND
EAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A WARMING/DRYING TREND WILL FOLLOW THE
UPPER LOW DEPARTURE FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH NO MAJOR WIND
SYSTEMS IN SIGHT GIVEN THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

&&

$$

33






000
FXUS65 KABQ 231142 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
MAIN AVIATION IMPACT TODAY WILL BE FROM STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST AS WELL...BUT NO SUB-VFR VSBY LIMITATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST NEAR 35KTS AT KLVS AND KTCC.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR CIGS TO DEVELOP CENTRAL AND WEST AND
GRADUALLY LOWER...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MAINLY DRY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
AS LIFT AND MOISTURE INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
INCREASE. A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN IS EXPECTED TO BRING COLDER AND WETTER WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ABOVE ABOUT 8000 FEET SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ORPHANED WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SRN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TO PHASE
WITH A TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
FLOW ALOFT OVER NRN MEXICO SHOWING SIGNS OF BACKING SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER FAR SRN/SERN NM. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...THE DRYLINE HAS PUSHED QUITE A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THIS RETREATING DRYLINE OVER THE NE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BONE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM WILL
MAKE WHATEVER HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON DRY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
IMPACT. STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OVER NE NM WILL MAKE FOR STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM THE EAST- CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHWARD
TO THE NE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASES OVERNIGHT.
NAM12 AND GFS AGREE THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WRN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PHASING TROUGHS MOVES OVER. A RELATIVELY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT KEEPS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NRN MOUNTAINS.

A TRANSITORY WEAK RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVER FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
IMPRESSIVELY DEEP UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH/SEWD THROUGH THE PACNW.
GFS AND ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER...DROPPING
THE LOW SEWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIP MOVES INTO WRN NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACK AND IS THEREFORE SLOWER WITH PRECIPITATION
ONSET OVER THE WEST. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT LATE-DAY SUNDAY WILL BE
WET MOST AREAS AND MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL. IN
FACT...SNOW LEVELS DROP CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT 8K FT. STILL TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN SNOW
AMOUNTS BUT THE WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS COULD END UP WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IF NOT MORE.

AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES EWD THROUGH CENTRAL/SRN NM SUNDAY
NIGHT...WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
NM. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND BRINGS
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP INTO ERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS MONDAY. CONTINUED THE TREND OF UPPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS TRENDING TEMPERATURES DOWN.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT THE QUASI-PERMANENT RIDGE RETURNS TO
THE WEST COAST TUESDAY AND BEGINS TO FOLD OVER OR TRANSLATE EWD
TOWARD MIDWEEK. BOTH MODELS ARE DRY BUT EXTENT TO WHICH STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER NM MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE ON
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LAYER MOISTURE HAS INTRUDED FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXCELLENT THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR TO FAIR. TODAY`S CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT IS LOOKING
LESS CLEAR-CUT WITH THE EXCELLENT RECOVERY EAST...WHERE GREEN UP IS
UNDERWAY GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST GROWING SEASON INDEX GRAPHIC FROM THE
21ST. ANOTHER POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUDS RESULTING
FROM MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THAT SAID...HAINES OF 5-6 AND A SOLID HIT ON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND WIND THRESHOLDS...COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...JUSTIFIES KEEPING THE WARNING IN PLACE. HOWEVER...
WILL CANCEL THE WATCH FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY GIVEN THE MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE EVENT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

THE BAJA LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO OPEN UP OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW MEXICO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A COOLING/MOISTENING TREND IN PLAY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. STILL LOOKING AT A MARGINAL CRITICAL EVENT ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN GIVEN GREEN UP
CONSIDERATIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THERE WILL FORGO A WATCH
AT THIS TIME.

HIGHER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THIS CYCLE ON A MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING/MOISTENING TREND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO. CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION ARE
LOOKING UP WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTH AND
EAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A WARMING/DRYING TREND WILL FOLLOW THE
UPPER LOW DEPARTURE FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH NO MAJOR WIND
SYSTEMS IN SIGHT GIVEN THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

&&

$$

33






000
FXUS65 KABQ 231142 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
MAIN AVIATION IMPACT TODAY WILL BE FROM STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST AS WELL...BUT NO SUB-VFR VSBY LIMITATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST NEAR 35KTS AT KLVS AND KTCC.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR CIGS TO DEVELOP CENTRAL AND WEST AND
GRADUALLY LOWER...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MAINLY DRY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
AS LIFT AND MOISTURE INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
INCREASE. A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN IS EXPECTED TO BRING COLDER AND WETTER WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ABOVE ABOUT 8000 FEET SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ORPHANED WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SRN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TO PHASE
WITH A TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
FLOW ALOFT OVER NRN MEXICO SHOWING SIGNS OF BACKING SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER FAR SRN/SERN NM. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...THE DRYLINE HAS PUSHED QUITE A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THIS RETREATING DRYLINE OVER THE NE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BONE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM WILL
MAKE WHATEVER HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON DRY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
IMPACT. STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OVER NE NM WILL MAKE FOR STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM THE EAST- CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHWARD
TO THE NE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASES OVERNIGHT.
NAM12 AND GFS AGREE THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WRN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PHASING TROUGHS MOVES OVER. A RELATIVELY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT KEEPS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NRN MOUNTAINS.

A TRANSITORY WEAK RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVER FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
IMPRESSIVELY DEEP UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH/SEWD THROUGH THE PACNW.
GFS AND ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER...DROPPING
THE LOW SEWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIP MOVES INTO WRN NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACK AND IS THEREFORE SLOWER WITH PRECIPITATION
ONSET OVER THE WEST. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT LATE-DAY SUNDAY WILL BE
WET MOST AREAS AND MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL. IN
FACT...SNOW LEVELS DROP CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT 8K FT. STILL TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN SNOW
AMOUNTS BUT THE WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS COULD END UP WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IF NOT MORE.

AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES EWD THROUGH CENTRAL/SRN NM SUNDAY
NIGHT...WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
NM. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND BRINGS
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP INTO ERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS MONDAY. CONTINUED THE TREND OF UPPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS TRENDING TEMPERATURES DOWN.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT THE QUASI-PERMANENT RIDGE RETURNS TO
THE WEST COAST TUESDAY AND BEGINS TO FOLD OVER OR TRANSLATE EWD
TOWARD MIDWEEK. BOTH MODELS ARE DRY BUT EXTENT TO WHICH STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER NM MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE ON
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LAYER MOISTURE HAS INTRUDED FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXCELLENT THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR TO FAIR. TODAY`S CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT IS LOOKING
LESS CLEAR-CUT WITH THE EXCELLENT RECOVERY EAST...WHERE GREEN UP IS
UNDERWAY GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST GROWING SEASON INDEX GRAPHIC FROM THE
21ST. ANOTHER POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUDS RESULTING
FROM MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THAT SAID...HAINES OF 5-6 AND A SOLID HIT ON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND WIND THRESHOLDS...COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...JUSTIFIES KEEPING THE WARNING IN PLACE. HOWEVER...
WILL CANCEL THE WATCH FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY GIVEN THE MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE EVENT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

THE BAJA LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO OPEN UP OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW MEXICO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A COOLING/MOISTENING TREND IN PLAY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. STILL LOOKING AT A MARGINAL CRITICAL EVENT ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN GIVEN GREEN UP
CONSIDERATIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THERE WILL FORGO A WATCH
AT THIS TIME.

HIGHER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THIS CYCLE ON A MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING/MOISTENING TREND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO. CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION ARE
LOOKING UP WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTH AND
EAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A WARMING/DRYING TREND WILL FOLLOW THE
UPPER LOW DEPARTURE FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH NO MAJOR WIND
SYSTEMS IN SIGHT GIVEN THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

&&

$$

33






000
FXUS65 KABQ 231142 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
MAIN AVIATION IMPACT TODAY WILL BE FROM STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST AS WELL...BUT NO SUB-VFR VSBY LIMITATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST NEAR 35KTS AT KLVS AND KTCC.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR CIGS TO DEVELOP CENTRAL AND WEST AND
GRADUALLY LOWER...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MAINLY DRY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
AS LIFT AND MOISTURE INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
INCREASE. A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN IS EXPECTED TO BRING COLDER AND WETTER WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ABOVE ABOUT 8000 FEET SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ORPHANED WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SRN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TO PHASE
WITH A TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
FLOW ALOFT OVER NRN MEXICO SHOWING SIGNS OF BACKING SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER FAR SRN/SERN NM. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...THE DRYLINE HAS PUSHED QUITE A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THIS RETREATING DRYLINE OVER THE NE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BONE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM WILL
MAKE WHATEVER HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON DRY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
IMPACT. STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OVER NE NM WILL MAKE FOR STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM THE EAST- CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHWARD
TO THE NE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASES OVERNIGHT.
NAM12 AND GFS AGREE THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WRN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PHASING TROUGHS MOVES OVER. A RELATIVELY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT KEEPS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NRN MOUNTAINS.

A TRANSITORY WEAK RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVER FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
IMPRESSIVELY DEEP UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH/SEWD THROUGH THE PACNW.
GFS AND ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER...DROPPING
THE LOW SEWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIP MOVES INTO WRN NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACK AND IS THEREFORE SLOWER WITH PRECIPITATION
ONSET OVER THE WEST. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT LATE-DAY SUNDAY WILL BE
WET MOST AREAS AND MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL. IN
FACT...SNOW LEVELS DROP CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT 8K FT. STILL TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN SNOW
AMOUNTS BUT THE WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS COULD END UP WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IF NOT MORE.

AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES EWD THROUGH CENTRAL/SRN NM SUNDAY
NIGHT...WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
NM. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND BRINGS
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP INTO ERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS MONDAY. CONTINUED THE TREND OF UPPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS TRENDING TEMPERATURES DOWN.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT THE QUASI-PERMANENT RIDGE RETURNS TO
THE WEST COAST TUESDAY AND BEGINS TO FOLD OVER OR TRANSLATE EWD
TOWARD MIDWEEK. BOTH MODELS ARE DRY BUT EXTENT TO WHICH STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER NM MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE ON
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LAYER MOISTURE HAS INTRUDED FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXCELLENT THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR TO FAIR. TODAY`S CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT IS LOOKING
LESS CLEAR-CUT WITH THE EXCELLENT RECOVERY EAST...WHERE GREEN UP IS
UNDERWAY GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST GROWING SEASON INDEX GRAPHIC FROM THE
21ST. ANOTHER POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUDS RESULTING
FROM MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THAT SAID...HAINES OF 5-6 AND A SOLID HIT ON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND WIND THRESHOLDS...COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...JUSTIFIES KEEPING THE WARNING IN PLACE. HOWEVER...
WILL CANCEL THE WATCH FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY GIVEN THE MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE EVENT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

THE BAJA LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO OPEN UP OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW MEXICO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A COOLING/MOISTENING TREND IN PLAY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. STILL LOOKING AT A MARGINAL CRITICAL EVENT ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN GIVEN GREEN UP
CONSIDERATIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THERE WILL FORGO A WATCH
AT THIS TIME.

HIGHER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THIS CYCLE ON A MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING/MOISTENING TREND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO. CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION ARE
LOOKING UP WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTH AND
EAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A WARMING/DRYING TREND WILL FOLLOW THE
UPPER LOW DEPARTURE FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH NO MAJOR WIND
SYSTEMS IN SIGHT GIVEN THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

&&

$$

33






000
FXUS65 KABQ 231142 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
MAIN AVIATION IMPACT TODAY WILL BE FROM STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST AS WELL...BUT NO SUB-VFR VSBY LIMITATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST NEAR 35KTS AT KLVS AND KTCC.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR CIGS TO DEVELOP CENTRAL AND WEST AND
GRADUALLY LOWER...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MAINLY DRY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
AS LIFT AND MOISTURE INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
INCREASE. A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN IS EXPECTED TO BRING COLDER AND WETTER WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ABOVE ABOUT 8000 FEET SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ORPHANED WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SRN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TO PHASE
WITH A TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
FLOW ALOFT OVER NRN MEXICO SHOWING SIGNS OF BACKING SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER FAR SRN/SERN NM. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...THE DRYLINE HAS PUSHED QUITE A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THIS RETREATING DRYLINE OVER THE NE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BONE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM WILL
MAKE WHATEVER HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON DRY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
IMPACT. STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OVER NE NM WILL MAKE FOR STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM THE EAST- CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHWARD
TO THE NE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASES OVERNIGHT.
NAM12 AND GFS AGREE THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WRN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PHASING TROUGHS MOVES OVER. A RELATIVELY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT KEEPS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NRN MOUNTAINS.

A TRANSITORY WEAK RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVER FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
IMPRESSIVELY DEEP UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH/SEWD THROUGH THE PACNW.
GFS AND ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER...DROPPING
THE LOW SEWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIP MOVES INTO WRN NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACK AND IS THEREFORE SLOWER WITH PRECIPITATION
ONSET OVER THE WEST. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT LATE-DAY SUNDAY WILL BE
WET MOST AREAS AND MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL. IN
FACT...SNOW LEVELS DROP CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT 8K FT. STILL TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN SNOW
AMOUNTS BUT THE WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS COULD END UP WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IF NOT MORE.

AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES EWD THROUGH CENTRAL/SRN NM SUNDAY
NIGHT...WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
NM. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND BRINGS
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP INTO ERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS MONDAY. CONTINUED THE TREND OF UPPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS TRENDING TEMPERATURES DOWN.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT THE QUASI-PERMANENT RIDGE RETURNS TO
THE WEST COAST TUESDAY AND BEGINS TO FOLD OVER OR TRANSLATE EWD
TOWARD MIDWEEK. BOTH MODELS ARE DRY BUT EXTENT TO WHICH STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER NM MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE ON
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LAYER MOISTURE HAS INTRUDED FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXCELLENT THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR TO FAIR. TODAY`S CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT IS LOOKING
LESS CLEAR-CUT WITH THE EXCELLENT RECOVERY EAST...WHERE GREEN UP IS
UNDERWAY GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST GROWING SEASON INDEX GRAPHIC FROM THE
21ST. ANOTHER POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUDS RESULTING
FROM MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THAT SAID...HAINES OF 5-6 AND A SOLID HIT ON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND WIND THRESHOLDS...COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...JUSTIFIES KEEPING THE WARNING IN PLACE. HOWEVER...
WILL CANCEL THE WATCH FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY GIVEN THE MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE EVENT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

THE BAJA LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO OPEN UP OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW MEXICO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A COOLING/MOISTENING TREND IN PLAY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. STILL LOOKING AT A MARGINAL CRITICAL EVENT ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN GIVEN GREEN UP
CONSIDERATIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THERE WILL FORGO A WATCH
AT THIS TIME.

HIGHER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THIS CYCLE ON A MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING/MOISTENING TREND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO. CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION ARE
LOOKING UP WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTH AND
EAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A WARMING/DRYING TREND WILL FOLLOW THE
UPPER LOW DEPARTURE FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH NO MAJOR WIND
SYSTEMS IN SIGHT GIVEN THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

&&

$$

33





000
FXUS65 KABQ 231142 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.UPDATE...
MAIN AVIATION IMPACT TODAY WILL BE FROM STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SOME POTENTIAL FOR BLOWING
DUST AS WELL...BUT NO SUB-VFR VSBY LIMITATIONS ARE EXPECTED.
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS ARE FORECAST NEAR 35KTS AT KLVS AND KTCC.
OTHERWISE...LOOK FOR VFR CIGS TO DEVELOP CENTRAL AND WEST AND
GRADUALLY LOWER...BUT STILL WELL ABOVE THE HIGHEST PEAKS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...341 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MAINLY DRY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
AS LIFT AND MOISTURE INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
INCREASE. A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN IS EXPECTED TO BRING COLDER AND WETTER WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ABOVE ABOUT 8000 FEET SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ORPHANED WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SRN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TO PHASE
WITH A TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
FLOW ALOFT OVER NRN MEXICO SHOWING SIGNS OF BACKING SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER FAR SRN/SERN NM. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...THE DRYLINE HAS PUSHED QUITE A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THIS RETREATING DRYLINE OVER THE NE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BONE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM WILL
MAKE WHATEVER HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON DRY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
IMPACT. STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OVER NE NM WILL MAKE FOR STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM THE EAST- CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHWARD
TO THE NE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASES OVERNIGHT.
NAM12 AND GFS AGREE THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WRN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PHASING TROUGHS MOVES OVER. A RELATIVELY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT KEEPS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NRN MOUNTAINS.

A TRANSITORY WEAK RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVER FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
IMPRESSIVELY DEEP UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH/SEWD THROUGH THE PACNW.
GFS AND ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER...DROPPING
THE LOW SEWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIP MOVES INTO WRN NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACK AND IS THEREFORE SLOWER WITH PRECIPITATION
ONSET OVER THE WEST. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT LATE-DAY SUNDAY WILL BE
WET MOST AREAS AND MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL. IN
FACT...SNOW LEVELS DROP CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT 8K FT. STILL TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN SNOW
AMOUNTS BUT THE WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS COULD END UP WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IF NOT MORE.

AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES EWD THROUGH CENTRAL/SRN NM SUNDAY
NIGHT...WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
NM. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND BRINGS
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP INTO ERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS MONDAY. CONTINUED THE TREND OF UPPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS TRENDING TEMPERATURES DOWN.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT THE QUASI-PERMANENT RIDGE RETURNS TO
THE WEST COAST TUESDAY AND BEGINS TO FOLD OVER OR TRANSLATE EWD
TOWARD MIDWEEK. BOTH MODELS ARE DRY BUT EXTENT TO WHICH STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER NM MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE ON
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LAYER MOISTURE HAS INTRUDED FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXCELLENT THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR TO FAIR. TODAY`S CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT IS LOOKING
LESS CLEAR-CUT WITH THE EXCELLENT RECOVERY EAST...WHERE GREEN UP IS
UNDERWAY GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST GROWING SEASON INDEX GRAPHIC FROM THE
21ST. ANOTHER POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUDS RESULTING
FROM MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THAT SAID...HAINES OF 5-6 AND A SOLID HIT ON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND WIND THRESHOLDS...COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...JUSTIFIES KEEPING THE WARNING IN PLACE. HOWEVER...
WILL CANCEL THE WATCH FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY GIVEN THE MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE EVENT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

THE BAJA LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO OPEN UP OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW MEXICO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A COOLING/MOISTENING TREND IN PLAY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. STILL LOOKING AT A MARGINAL CRITICAL EVENT ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN GIVEN GREEN UP
CONSIDERATIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THERE WILL FORGO A WATCH
AT THIS TIME.

HIGHER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THIS CYCLE ON A MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING/MOISTENING TREND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO. CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION ARE
LOOKING UP WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTH AND
EAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A WARMING/DRYING TREND WILL FOLLOW THE
UPPER LOW DEPARTURE FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH NO MAJOR WIND
SYSTEMS IN SIGHT GIVEN THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

&&

$$

33






000
FXUS65 KABQ 230941
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
341 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MAINLY DRY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
AS LIFT AND MOISTURE INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
INCREASE. A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN IS EXPECTED TO BRING COLDER AND WETTER WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ABOVE ABOUT 8000 FEET SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ORPHANED WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SRN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TO PHASE
WITH A TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
FLOW ALOFT OVER NRN MEXICO SHOWING SIGNS OF BACKING SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER FAR SRN/SERN NM. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...THE DRYLINE HAS PUSHED QUITE A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THIS RETREATING DRYLINE OVER THE NE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BONE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM WILL
MAKE WHATEVER HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON DRY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
IMPACT. STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OVER NE NM WILL MAKE FOR STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM THE EAST- CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHWARD
TO THE NE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASES OVERNIGHT.
NAM12 AND GFS AGREE THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WRN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PHASING TROUGHS MOVES OVER. A RELATIVELY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT KEEPS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NRN MOUNTAINS.

A TRANSITORY WEAK RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVER FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
IMPRESSIVELY DEEP UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH/SEWD THROUGH THE PACNW.
GFS AND ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER...DROPPING
THE LOW SEWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIP MOVES INTO WRN NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACK AND IS THEREFORE SLOWER WITH PRECIPITATION
ONSET OVER THE WEST. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT LATE-DAY SUNDAY WILL BE
WET MOST AREAS AND MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL. IN
FACT...SNOW LEVELS DROP CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT 8K FT. STILL TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN SNOW
AMOUNTS BUT THE WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS COULD END UP WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IF NOT MORE.

AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES EWD THROUGH CENTRAL/SRN NM SUNDAY
NIGHT...WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
NM. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND BRINGS
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP INTO ERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS MONDAY. CONTINUED THE TREND OF UPPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS TRENDING TEMPERATURES DOWN.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT THE QUASI-PERMANENT RIDGE RETURNS TO
THE WEST COAST TUESDAY AND BEGINS TO FOLD OVER OR TRANSLATE EWD
TOWARD MIDWEEK. BOTH MODELS ARE DRY BUT EXTENT TO WHICH STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER NM MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE ON
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LAYER MOISTURE HAS INTRUDED FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXCELLENT THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR TO FAIR. TODAY`S CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT IS LOOKING
LESS CLEAR-CUT WITH THE EXCELLENT RECOVERY EAST...WHERE GREEN UP IS
UNDERWAY GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST GROWING SEASON INDEX GRAPHIC FROM THE
21ST. ANOTHER POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUDS RESULTING
FROM MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THAT SAID...HAINES OF 5-6 AND A SOLID HIT ON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND WIND THRESHOLDS...COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...JUSTIFIES KEEPING THE WARNING IN PLACE. HOWEVER...
WILL CANCEL THE WATCH FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY GIVEN THE MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE EVENT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

THE BAJA LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO OPEN UP OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW MEXICO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A COOLING/MOISTENING TREND IN PLAY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. STILL LOOKING AT A MARGINAL CRITICAL EVENT ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN GIVEN GREEN UP
CONSIDERATIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THERE WILL FORGO A WATCH
AT THIS TIME.

HIGHER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THIS CYCLE ON A MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING/MOISTENING TREND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO. CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION ARE
LOOKING UP WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTH AND
EAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A WARMING/DRYING TREND WILL FOLLOW THE
UPPER LOW DEPARTURE FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH NO MAJOR WIND
SYSTEMS IN SIGHT GIVEN THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SOME AVIATION IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT
OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED
JUST SLIGHTLY WEST OF A KRTN TO KLVS TO KCVS LINE. FORECAST MODELS
HAVE STRUGGLED TO CAPTURE THE WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXTENT THAT
THIS BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THUS FAR...BUT SUSPECT IT WILL FULLY
STALL SHORTLY. THIS WILL INTRODUCE BATCHES OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WITH MVFR/IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR CEILINGS TO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
SITES LIKE KRTN...KCAO...KTCC...KCVS...AND POSSIBLY KLVS. THESE LOW
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP AND CLOUD BASES WILL RISE AS BREEZY
CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  70  39  65  40 /  10  10  10  10
DULCE...........................  66  30  59  31 /  20  20  30  10
CUBA............................  67  34  59  33 /  10  20  30  10
GALLUP..........................  66  31  61  31 /  10  20  20  10
EL MORRO........................  61  31  55  32 /  10  40  20  10
GRANTS..........................  66  29  60  29 /  10  30  20  10
QUEMADO.........................  61  34  56  35 /  10  30  20   5
GLENWOOD........................  71  39  66  38 /  10  30  10   0
CHAMA...........................  61  28  55  29 /  20  20  30  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  65  43  57  41 /  10  20  30  10
PECOS...........................  65  38  58  37 /  10  20  20   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  65  28  58  27 /  10  20  20  10
RED RIVER.......................  56  29  49  29 /  20  30  30  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  59  24  52  25 /  10  20  20  10
TAOS............................  66  32  57  30 /  10  20  20   5
MORA............................  65  36  57  37 /  10  20  20   5
ESPANOLA........................  71  42  62  39 /  10  10  20   5
SANTA FE........................  66  41  58  40 /  10  20  20  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  71  37  63  35 /  10  10  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  72  47  66  45 /  10  10  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  74  46  67  44 /  10  10  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  76  42  69  40 /  10  10  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  75  45  68  44 /  10  10  10   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  76  40  71  38 /  10  10  10   0
RIO RANCHO......................  74  47  67  45 /  10  10  10   0
SOCORRO.........................  76  44  72  43 /  10  10  10   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  67  41  59  38 /  10  20  20   5
TIJERAS.........................  69  38  61  35 /   5  20  20   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  70  31  64  30 /   5  10  10   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  68  37  62  35 /   5  10  10   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  68  42  64  39 /   5  20  10   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  73  46  68  43 /   5  10  10   0
RUIDOSO.........................  68  39  64  38 /  10  20  20   5
CAPULIN.........................  66  38  61  38 /  10  20  20   5
RATON...........................  70  35  65  34 /  10  20  20   5
SPRINGER........................  72  38  66  38 /  10  10  10   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  69  37  63  38 /  10  10  10   5
CLAYTON.........................  75  45  72  44 /  10  10  10   0
ROY.............................  72  40  68  39 /   5  10  10   0
CONCHAS.........................  79  50  74  47 /   5   5   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  77  47  73  45 /   5  10   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  83  48  79  45 /   0   5   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  80  46  76  44 /   0   5   5   0
PORTALES........................  80  50  77  47 /   0   5   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  80  49  76  46 /   0   5   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  84  48  79  46 /   0   5   0   0
PICACHO.........................  75  48  70  44 /   5  10   5   0
ELK.............................  69  43  64  41 /   5  20  10   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

&&

$$

33











000
FXUS65 KABQ 230941
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
341 AM MDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL BRING
INCREASING MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AND ISOLATED MAINLY DRY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON.
AS LIFT AND MOISTURE INCREASE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO
INCREASE. A VIGOROUS UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE GREAT
BASIN IS EXPECTED TO BRING COLDER AND WETTER WEATHER TO NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. ACCUMULATING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGH COUNTRY ABOVE ABOUT 8000 FEET SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ORPHANED WEAK UPPER LOW OVER SRN CALIFORNIA BEGINNING TO PHASE
WITH A TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHWARD OVER THE FAR ERN PACIFIC OCEAN.
FLOW ALOFT OVER NRN MEXICO SHOWING SIGNS OF BACKING SIGNIFICANTLY
WITH HIGH CLOUDS INCREASING OVER FAR SRN/SERN NM. AS IS USUALLY
THE CASE...THE DRYLINE HAS PUSHED QUITE A BIT FARTHER WEST THAN
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED. A FEW SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ALONG THIS RETREATING DRYLINE OVER THE NE PLAINS DURING THE
AFTERNOON. BONE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM WILL
MAKE WHATEVER HIGH BASED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON DRY. GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS EXPECTED TO BE THE MAIN
IMPACT. STRENGTHENING SURFACE LOW OVER NE NM WILL MAKE FOR STRONG
AND GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS FROM THE EAST- CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHWARD
TO THE NE PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MOISTURE
INCREASES FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS EVENING AND THE LIKELIHOOD FOR
MEASURABLE RAINFALL FROM SHOWERS AND STORMS INCREASES OVERNIGHT.
NAM12 AND GFS AGREE THAT THE BEST CHANCES FOR MEASURABLE RAIN
TONIGHT WILL BE OVER THE WRN MOUNTAINS WHERE THE STRONGEST LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE PHASING TROUGHS MOVES OVER. A RELATIVELY MOIST
AND UNSTABLE ZONAL FLOW ALOFT KEEPS ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY NRN MOUNTAINS.

A TRANSITORY WEAK RIDGE ALOFT MOVES OVER FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF AN
IMPRESSIVELY DEEP UPPER LOW DIVING SOUTH/SEWD THROUGH THE PACNW.
GFS AND ECMWF IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER...DROPPING
THE LOW SEWD THROUGH THE WRN GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT. INITIAL ORGANIZED BAND OF PRECIP MOVES INTO WRN NM LATE
SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING. ECMWF IS SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THE UPPER LOW TRACK AND IS THEREFORE SLOWER WITH PRECIPITATION
ONSET OVER THE WEST. BOTH MODELS AGREE THAT LATE-DAY SUNDAY WILL BE
WET MOST AREAS AND MUCH COLDER THAN AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL. IN
FACT...SNOW LEVELS DROP CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY...WITH ACCUMULATING
SNOW POSSIBLE ABOVE ABOUT 8K FT. STILL TOO EARLY TO NAIL DOWN SNOW
AMOUNTS BUT THE WRN AND NRN MOUNTAINS COULD END UP WITH SEVERAL
INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IF NOT MORE.

AS THE UPPER LOW CENTER MOVES EWD THROUGH CENTRAL/SRN NM SUNDAY
NIGHT...WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF EASTERN
NM. ECMWF IS FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE UPPER LOW CENTER AND BRINGS
MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF WRAP AROUND PRECIP INTO ERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS MONDAY. CONTINUED THE TREND OF UPPING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS WELL AS TRENDING TEMPERATURES DOWN.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF AGREE THAT THE QUASI-PERMANENT RIDGE RETURNS TO
THE WEST COAST TUESDAY AND BEGINS TO FOLD OVER OR TRANSLATE EWD
TOWARD MIDWEEK. BOTH MODELS ARE DRY BUT EXTENT TO WHICH STRONG
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT REMAINS OVER NM MAKES A BIG DIFFERENCE ON
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOW LAYER MOISTURE HAS INTRUDED FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUSLY
FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST PLAINS...WHERE
HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXCELLENT THIS MORNING. ELSEWHERE...RECOVERY
WILL BE POOR TO FAIR. TODAY`S CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT IS LOOKING
LESS CLEAR-CUT WITH THE EXCELLENT RECOVERY EAST...WHERE GREEN UP IS
UNDERWAY GIVEN THE SOUTHWEST GROWING SEASON INDEX GRAPHIC FROM THE
21ST. ANOTHER POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR WILL BE CLOUDS RESULTING
FROM MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE. THAT SAID...HAINES OF 5-6 AND A SOLID HIT ON RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND WIND THRESHOLDS...COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES...JUSTIFIES KEEPING THE WARNING IN PLACE. HOWEVER...
WILL CANCEL THE WATCH FOR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY GIVEN THE MARGINAL
NATURE OF THE EVENT WITH LIMITED COVERAGE OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AND
TEMPERATURES GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL.

THE BAJA LOW IS STILL FORECAST TO OPEN UP OVERNIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS
NEW MEXICO EARLY FRIDAY WITH A COOLING/MOISTENING TREND IN PLAY FOR
MOST OF THE AREA. STILL LOOKING AT A MARGINAL CRITICAL EVENT ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT AGAIN GIVEN GREEN UP
CONSIDERATIONS AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL THERE WILL FORGO A WATCH
AT THIS TIME.

HIGHER FORECASTER CONFIDENCE THIS CYCLE ON A MORE SIGNIFICANT
COOLING/MOISTENING TREND LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY AS AN UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTHEAST OUT OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
AND MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO. CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION ARE
LOOKING UP WITH THIS SYSTEM AS WELL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTH AND
EAST SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. A WARMING/DRYING TREND WILL FOLLOW THE
UPPER LOW DEPARTURE FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...WITH NO MAJOR WIND
SYSTEMS IN SIGHT GIVEN THE 00Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SOME AVIATION IMPACTS CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT
OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS THURSDAY...BUT
OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL. A COLD FRONT HAS STALLED
JUST SLIGHTLY WEST OF A KRTN TO KLVS TO KCVS LINE. FORECAST MODELS
HAVE STRUGGLED TO CAPTURE THE WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD EXTENT THAT
THIS BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED THUS FAR...BUT SUSPECT IT WILL FULLY
STALL SHORTLY. THIS WILL INTRODUCE BATCHES OF LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WITH MVFR/IFR AND PERHAPS LIFR CEILINGS TO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO
SITES LIKE KRTN...KCAO...KTCC...KCVS...AND POSSIBLY KLVS. THESE LOW
CLOUDS WILL BREAK UP AND CLOUD BASES WILL RISE AS BREEZY
CONDITIONS DEVELOP LATE THURSDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  70  39  65  40 /  10  10  10  10
DULCE...........................  66  30  59  31 /  20  20  30  10
CUBA............................  67  34  59  33 /  10  20  30  10
GALLUP..........................  66  31  61  31 /  10  20  20  10
EL MORRO........................  61  31  55  32 /  10  40  20  10
GRANTS..........................  66  29  60  29 /  10  30  20  10
QUEMADO.........................  61  34  56  35 /  10  30  20   5
GLENWOOD........................  71  39  66  38 /  10  30  10   0
CHAMA...........................  61  28  55  29 /  20  20  30  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  65  43  57  41 /  10  20  30  10
PECOS...........................  65  38  58  37 /  10  20  20   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  65  28  58  27 /  10  20  20  10
RED RIVER.......................  56  29  49  29 /  20  30  30  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  59  24  52  25 /  10  20  20  10
TAOS............................  66  32  57  30 /  10  20  20   5
MORA............................  65  36  57  37 /  10  20  20   5
ESPANOLA........................  71  42  62  39 /  10  10  20   5
SANTA FE........................  66  41  58  40 /  10  20  20  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  71  37  63  35 /  10  10  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  72  47  66  45 /  10  10  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  74  46  67  44 /  10  10  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  76  42  69  40 /  10  10  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  75  45  68  44 /  10  10  10   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  76  40  71  38 /  10  10  10   0
RIO RANCHO......................  74  47  67  45 /  10  10  10   0
SOCORRO.........................  76  44  72  43 /  10  10  10   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  67  41  59  38 /  10  20  20   5
TIJERAS.........................  69  38  61  35 /   5  20  20   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  70  31  64  30 /   5  10  10   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  68  37  62  35 /   5  10  10   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  68  42  64  39 /   5  20  10   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  73  46  68  43 /   5  10  10   0
RUIDOSO.........................  68  39  64  38 /  10  20  20   5
CAPULIN.........................  66  38  61  38 /  10  20  20   5
RATON...........................  70  35  65  34 /  10  20  20   5
SPRINGER........................  72  38  66  38 /  10  10  10   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  69  37  63  38 /  10  10  10   5
CLAYTON.........................  75  45  72  44 /  10  10  10   0
ROY.............................  72  40  68  39 /   5  10  10   0
CONCHAS.........................  79  50  74  47 /   5   5   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  77  47  73  45 /   5  10   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  83  48  79  45 /   0   5   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  80  46  76  44 /   0   5   5   0
PORTALES........................  80  50  77  47 /   0   5   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  80  49  76  46 /   0   5   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  84  48  79  46 /   0   5   0   0
PICACHO.........................  75  48  70  44 /   5  10   5   0
ELK.............................  69  43  64  41 /   5  20  10   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

&&

$$

33












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