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000
FXUS65 KABQ 201819 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1215 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
STILL SOME IFR CIGS PERSISTING ROUGHLY SE OF A LINE FROM KSRR TO
KTCC. KROW WILL BE IMPACTED THE MOST...THOUGH SHOULD SEE IT WAFFLE
BTW SCT AND BKN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY BELOW GAPS AT KABQ
AND KSAF. MAY NEED TO ISSUE AN AWW LATER FOR KABQ FOR WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 35KT. OTHERWISE...SOME SPOTTY SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTN/EVE. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE A VC MENTION AT THIS TIME AT KFMN...KGUP AND KSAF.
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR/IFR CIGS AND PERHAPS VSBYS AFT
06Z TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. MAY ALSO SEE
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AROUND KROW NEAR SUNRISE SUNDAY.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...348 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY MOIST AIR MASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
WHERE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST FAVORED. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN FOR PARTS OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS. AN OVERALL UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE STATE AND HELPS TO DRAW
MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. DRIER AIR WILL THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO MONDAY AND MOST AREAS TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST AND BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...A DRYING TREND WILL TAKE A STRONGER HOLD ON THE
AREA...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY LINGER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP/EXPAND AND HAVE GREATEST IMPACT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
SLOPES AND ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK.
VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WHERE SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS SOLIDLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. THUS
EVEN WEAK UPSLOPE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THIS ENVIRON ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...AND ALL INDICATIONS
POINT TOWARD A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE E-SE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND MORESO INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LATEST 13KM RAPID REFRESH /RAP/ AND HRRR MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISO-SCT COVERAGE FOR THE EC/SE ZONES TODAY.
AND GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/NAM SUPPORTING PREVIOUS POP/WX
TRENDS INCREASING POP FOR SE 1/4 TONIGHT WITH A PREFERRED AXIS
ALONG/WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY TO EAST SLOPES OF THE SC
MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE EFFECTS WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

OUTSIDE THE SC MTNS AND EC/SE PLAINS...A PREDOMINATELY DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM FORECAST TODAY BENEATH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THAT SHOULD CENTER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE
NM/CO LINE TODAY BEFORE DEFLATING AND SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTH
TONIGHT- SUNDAY. THE SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE ALOFT TODAY
AND THEN TRENDS INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO CENTRAL CA LATE TODAY- TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
SUNDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE PREDOMINATELY DRY FORECAST TODAY
WILL BE CATRON COUNTY/UPPER GILA REGION EXTENDING NORTH TOWARD THE
ZUNI MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NM/AZ LINE WHERE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN THE DEVELOPING S-SELY FLOW. AN
EXPANSION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH AND WEST...AS FORCING FOR LARGE-
SCALE LIFT AIDS CONVECTION SUNDAY PM. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS TO
THE WEST OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOST LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRENGTHENING E-SELY BOUNDARY
LAYER LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER DEW POINT AIR
WESTWARD CONTRIBUTING TO THE OVERALL IMPROVING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES.
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAIRLY FAST BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG CELLS
DEVELOP SUNDAY PM NW ZONES.

CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND PASS NORTH OF THE STATE MONDAY...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. BEST POPS FROM
NE TO SW. TRANSITION TO NWLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY THAT WOULD
FAVOR THE NC/NE AREAS BUT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED- SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH. DEFINITE
DRYING TREND NC/NW ZONES. FOR WED AND BEYOND...ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH
INDICATED INTO THE WEST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PROGRESS EAST. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER OUR
REGION... POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE MOST LIKELY TO DOMINATE
WITH A DEFORMATION AXIS OF SOME SORTS STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES INTO FAR EASTERN NM BUT LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW GRADE
POP FORECAST IN PLACE FOR NOW WITH TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
EAST...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WEST. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL TO S CALIFORNIA COAST TO BE AN IMPORTANT
DRIVER IN LOWERING SFC PRESSURE OVER OR JUST W OF W NM WHICH WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO SOMEWHAT OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS MOST OF THE
EAST TWO THIRDS OR THREE QUARTERS OF NM BY LATE AM TO EARLY PM
TODAY. SOME DRYING THANKS TO A MODERATE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE SE AND ALSO MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ELSEWHERE. GAP WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. RESIDUAL SFC
MOISTURE AND MID TO UPPER LVL FLOW SHIFTING FROM E AND NE TODAY TO
MORE OF A SE TO S FLOW SUN TO SUN NIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD HELP
ENHANCE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR SUN...FAVORING MOST THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN AND EAST AS WELL AS AREAS NEAR TO WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
AFTN TEMPS SHOULD BE WILL COOL ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES MOST SPOTS
EXCEPT PERHAPS A BIT LESS SO ACROSS FAR E NM...BUT REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NE HALF OF THE STATE. SOME BREEZY LEVEL
WIND AREAS EMBEDDED IN THE GENERALLY S TO SE FLOW SUN. VENTILATION
RATES LOOK TO BE FAIR TO GOOD FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR.

MON TO AGAIN SOME WETTING RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EAST AND TO SOME DEGREE SOUTH...LESS WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE NW. VENTILATION NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE A LOT BETWEEN SUNDAY TO MONDAY WITH BETTER READINGS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I40.

A DRYING TREND STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE CARDS OVER THE AREA
STARTING TUE INTO AT LEAST THU...THOUGH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
STILL ANTICIPATED MID WEEK AND FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MTNS EASTWARD. VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SOME, THOUGH NOT
DRASTICALLY...TUE AND WED. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO
APPROACH FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. SOME FCST MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN STRENGTH AND TIMING. GFS MODEL STILL LOOKS
DEEPER AND SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH THE TROUGH THUS SOME WIND IMPACTS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE VENTILATION RATES. ECMWF
STILL IS A BIT SLOWER. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL DRIVING DOWN
CONFIDENCE SOME FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK. 43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$















000
FXUS65 KABQ 201819 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1215 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO RAISE MAX TEMPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
STILL SOME IFR CIGS PERSISTING ROUGHLY SE OF A LINE FROM KSRR TO
KTCC. KROW WILL BE IMPACTED THE MOST...THOUGH SHOULD SEE IT WAFFLE
BTW SCT AND BKN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY BELOW GAPS AT KABQ
AND KSAF. MAY NEED TO ISSUE AN AWW LATER FOR KABQ FOR WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 35KT. OTHERWISE...SOME SPOTTY SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTN/EVE. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE A VC MENTION AT THIS TIME AT KFMN...KGUP AND KSAF.
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR/IFR CIGS AND PERHAPS VSBYS AFT
06Z TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. MAY ALSO SEE
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AROUND KROW NEAR SUNRISE SUNDAY.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...348 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY MOIST AIR MASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
WHERE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST FAVORED. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN FOR PARTS OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS. AN OVERALL UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE STATE AND HELPS TO DRAW
MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. DRIER AIR WILL THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO MONDAY AND MOST AREAS TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST AND BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...A DRYING TREND WILL TAKE A STRONGER HOLD ON THE
AREA...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY LINGER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP/EXPAND AND HAVE GREATEST IMPACT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
SLOPES AND ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK.
VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WHERE SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS SOLIDLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. THUS
EVEN WEAK UPSLOPE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THIS ENVIRON ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...AND ALL INDICATIONS
POINT TOWARD A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE E-SE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND MORESO INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LATEST 13KM RAPID REFRESH /RAP/ AND HRRR MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISO-SCT COVERAGE FOR THE EC/SE ZONES TODAY.
AND GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/NAM SUPPORTING PREVIOUS POP/WX
TRENDS INCREASING POP FOR SE 1/4 TONIGHT WITH A PREFERRED AXIS
ALONG/WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY TO EAST SLOPES OF THE SC
MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE EFFECTS WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

OUTSIDE THE SC MTNS AND EC/SE PLAINS...A PREDOMINATELY DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM FORECAST TODAY BENEATH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THAT SHOULD CENTER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE
NM/CO LINE TODAY BEFORE DEFLATING AND SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTH
TONIGHT- SUNDAY. THE SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE ALOFT TODAY
AND THEN TRENDS INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO CENTRAL CA LATE TODAY- TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
SUNDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE PREDOMINATELY DRY FORECAST TODAY
WILL BE CATRON COUNTY/UPPER GILA REGION EXTENDING NORTH TOWARD THE
ZUNI MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NM/AZ LINE WHERE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN THE DEVELOPING S-SELY FLOW. AN
EXPANSION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH AND WEST...AS FORCING FOR LARGE-
SCALE LIFT AIDS CONVECTION SUNDAY PM. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS TO
THE WEST OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOST LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRENGTHENING E-SELY BOUNDARY
LAYER LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER DEW POINT AIR
WESTWARD CONTRIBUTING TO THE OVERALL IMPROVING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES.
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAIRLY FAST BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG CELLS
DEVELOP SUNDAY PM NW ZONES.

CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND PASS NORTH OF THE STATE MONDAY...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. BEST POPS FROM
NE TO SW. TRANSITION TO NWLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY THAT WOULD
FAVOR THE NC/NE AREAS BUT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED- SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH. DEFINITE
DRYING TREND NC/NW ZONES. FOR WED AND BEYOND...ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH
INDICATED INTO THE WEST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PROGRESS EAST. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER OUR
REGION... POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE MOST LIKELY TO DOMINATE
WITH A DEFORMATION AXIS OF SOME SORTS STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES INTO FAR EASTERN NM BUT LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW GRADE
POP FORECAST IN PLACE FOR NOW WITH TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
EAST...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WEST. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL TO S CALIFORNIA COAST TO BE AN IMPORTANT
DRIVER IN LOWERING SFC PRESSURE OVER OR JUST W OF W NM WHICH WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO SOMEWHAT OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS MOST OF THE
EAST TWO THIRDS OR THREE QUARTERS OF NM BY LATE AM TO EARLY PM
TODAY. SOME DRYING THANKS TO A MODERATE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE SE AND ALSO MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ELSEWHERE. GAP WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. RESIDUAL SFC
MOISTURE AND MID TO UPPER LVL FLOW SHIFTING FROM E AND NE TODAY TO
MORE OF A SE TO S FLOW SUN TO SUN NIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD HELP
ENHANCE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR SUN...FAVORING MOST THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN AND EAST AS WELL AS AREAS NEAR TO WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
AFTN TEMPS SHOULD BE WILL COOL ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES MOST SPOTS
EXCEPT PERHAPS A BIT LESS SO ACROSS FAR E NM...BUT REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NE HALF OF THE STATE. SOME BREEZY LEVEL
WIND AREAS EMBEDDED IN THE GENERALLY S TO SE FLOW SUN. VENTILATION
RATES LOOK TO BE FAIR TO GOOD FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR.

MON TO AGAIN SOME WETTING RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EAST AND TO SOME DEGREE SOUTH...LESS WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE NW. VENTILATION NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE A LOT BETWEEN SUNDAY TO MONDAY WITH BETTER READINGS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I40.

A DRYING TREND STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE CARDS OVER THE AREA
STARTING TUE INTO AT LEAST THU...THOUGH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
STILL ANTICIPATED MID WEEK AND FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MTNS EASTWARD. VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SOME, THOUGH NOT
DRASTICALLY...TUE AND WED. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO
APPROACH FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. SOME FCST MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN STRENGTH AND TIMING. GFS MODEL STILL LOOKS
DEEPER AND SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH THE TROUGH THUS SOME WIND IMPACTS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE VENTILATION RATES. ECMWF
STILL IS A BIT SLOWER. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL DRIVING DOWN
CONFIDENCE SOME FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK. 43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$














000
FXUS65 KABQ 201748 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1148 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
STILL SOME IFR CIGS PERSISTING ROUGHLY SE OF A LINE FROM KSRR TO
KTCC. KROW WILL BE IMPACTED THE MOST...THOUGH SHOULD SEE IT WAFFLE
BTW SCT AND BKN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY BELOW GAPS AT KABQ
AND KSAF. MAY NEED TO ISSUE AN AWW LATER FOR KABQ FOR WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 35KT. OTHERWISE...SOME SPOTTY SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTN/EVE. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE A VC MENTION AT THIS TIME AT KFMN...KGUP AND KSAF.
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR/IFR CIGS AND PERHAPS VSBYS AFT
06Z TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. MAY ALSO SEE
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AROUND KROW NEAR SUNRISE SUNDAY.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...348 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY MOIST AIR MASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
WHERE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST FAVORED. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN FOR PARTS OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS. AN OVERALL UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE STATE AND HELPS TO DRAW
MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. DRIER AIR WILL THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO MONDAY AND MOST AREAS TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST AND BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...A DRYING TREND WILL TAKE A STRONGER HOLD ON THE
AREA...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY LINGER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP/EXPAND AND HAVE GREATEST IMPACT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
SLOPES AND ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK.
VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WHERE SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS SOLIDLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. THUS
EVEN WEAK UPSLOPE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THIS ENVIRON ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...AND ALL INDICATIONS
POINT TOWARD A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE E-SE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND MORESO INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LATEST 13KM RAPID REFRESH /RAP/ AND HRRR MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISO-SCT COVERAGE FOR THE EC/SE ZONES TODAY.
AND GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/NAM SUPPORTING PREVIOUS POP/WX
TRENDS INCREASING POP FOR SE 1/4 TONIGHT WITH A PREFERRED AXIS
ALONG/WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY TO EAST SLOPES OF THE SC
MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE EFFECTS WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

OUTSIDE THE SC MTNS AND EC/SE PLAINS...A PREDOMINATELY DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM FORECAST TODAY BENEATH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THAT SHOULD CENTER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE
NM/CO LINE TODAY BEFORE DEFLATING AND SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTH
TONIGHT- SUNDAY. THE SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE ALOFT TODAY
AND THEN TRENDS INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO CENTRAL CA LATE TODAY- TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
SUNDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE PREDOMINATELY DRY FORECAST TODAY
WILL BE CATRON COUNTY/UPPER GILA REGION EXTENDING NORTH TOWARD THE
ZUNI MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NM/AZ LINE WHERE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN THE DEVELOPING S-SELY FLOW. AN
EXPANSION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH AND WEST...AS FORCING FOR LARGE-
SCALE LIFT AIDS CONVECTION SUNDAY PM. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS TO
THE WEST OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOST LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRENGTHENING E-SELY BOUNDARY
LAYER LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER DEW POINT AIR
WESTWARD CONTRIBUTING TO THE OVERALL IMPROVING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES.
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAIRLY FAST BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG CELLS
DEVELOP SUNDAY PM NW ZONES.

CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND PASS NORTH OF THE STATE MONDAY...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. BEST POPS FROM
NE TO SW. TRANSITION TO NWLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY THAT WOULD
FAVOR THE NC/NE AREAS BUT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED- SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH. DEFINITE
DRYING TREND NC/NW ZONES. FOR WED AND BEYOND...ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH
INDICATED INTO THE WEST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PROGRESS EAST. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER OUR
REGION... POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE MOST LIKELY TO DOMINATE
WITH A DEFORMATION AXIS OF SOME SORTS STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES INTO FAR EASTERN NM BUT LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW GRADE
POP FORECAST IN PLACE FOR NOW WITH TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
EAST...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WEST. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL TO S CALIFORNIA COAST TO BE AN IMPORTANT
DRIVER IN LOWERING SFC PRESSURE OVER OR JUST W OF W NM WHICH WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO SOMEWHAT OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS MOST OF THE
EAST TWO THIRDS OR THREE QUARTERS OF NM BY LATE AM TO EARLY PM
TODAY. SOME DRYING THANKS TO A MODERATE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE SE AND ALSO MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ELSEWHERE. GAP WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. RESIDUAL SFC
MOISTURE AND MID TO UPPER LVL FLOW SHIFTING FROM E AND NE TODAY TO
MORE OF A SE TO S FLOW SUN TO SUN NIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD HELP
ENHANCE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR SUN...FAVORING MOST THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN AND EAST AS WELL AS AREAS NEAR TO WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
AFTN TEMPS SHOULD BE WILL COOL ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES MOST SPOTS
EXCEPT PERHAPS A BIT LESS SO ACROSS FAR E NM...BUT REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NE HALF OF THE STATE. SOME BREEZY LEVEL
WIND AREAS EMBEDDED IN THE GENERALLY S TO SE FLOW SUN. VENTILATION
RATES LOOK TO BE FAIR TO GOOD FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR.

MON TO AGAIN SOME WETTING RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EAST AND TO SOME DEGREE SOUTH...LESS WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE NW. VENTILATION NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE A LOT BETWEEN SUNDAY TO MONDAY WITH BETTER READINGS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I40.

A DRYING TREND STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE CARDS OVER THE AREA
STARTING TUE INTO AT LEAST THU...THOUGH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
STILL ANTICIPATED MID WEEK AND FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MTNS EASTWARD. VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SOME, THOUGH NOT
DRASTICALLY...TUE AND WED. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO
APPROACH FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. SOME FCST MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN STRENGTH AND TIMING. GFS MODEL STILL LOOKS
DEEPER AND SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH THE TROUGH THUS SOME WIND IMPACTS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE VENTILATION RATES. ECMWF
STILL IS A BIT SLOWER. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL DRIVING DOWN
CONFIDENCE SOME FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK. 43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS65 KABQ 201748 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1148 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
STILL SOME IFR CIGS PERSISTING ROUGHLY SE OF A LINE FROM KSRR TO
KTCC. KROW WILL BE IMPACTED THE MOST...THOUGH SHOULD SEE IT WAFFLE
BTW SCT AND BKN OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. EASTERLY WINDS WILL
INCREASE AS THE AFTN PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY BELOW GAPS AT KABQ
AND KSAF. MAY NEED TO ISSUE AN AWW LATER FOR KABQ FOR WIND GUSTS
GREATER THAN 35KT. OTHERWISE...SOME SPOTTY SHRA AND TSRA ACROSS
THE NORTH AND WEST THIS AFTN/EVE. CONFIDENCE IS ONLY HIGH ENOUGH
TO INCLUDE A VC MENTION AT THIS TIME AT KFMN...KGUP AND KSAF.
SHOULD SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF LIFR/IFR CIGS AND PERHAPS VSBYS AFT
06Z TONIGHT ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. MAY ALSO SEE
A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOP AROUND KROW NEAR SUNRISE SUNDAY.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...348 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY MOIST AIR MASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
WHERE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST FAVORED. DEEPER
MOISTURE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN FOR PARTS OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS. AN OVERALL UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS A
DISTURBANCE ALOFT PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE STATE AND HELPS TO DRAW
MOISTURE FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. DRIER AIR WILL THEN SPREAD
EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO MONDAY AND MOST AREAS TUESDAY.
MEANWHILE... TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS THE WEST AND BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK...A DRYING TREND WILL TAKE A STRONGER HOLD ON THE
AREA...AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE COOLER THAN AVERAGE
TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY LINGER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP/EXPAND AND HAVE GREATEST IMPACT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
SLOPES AND ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK.
VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WHERE SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS SOLIDLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. THUS
EVEN WEAK UPSLOPE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THIS ENVIRON ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...AND ALL INDICATIONS
POINT TOWARD A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE E-SE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND MORESO INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LATEST 13KM RAPID REFRESH /RAP/ AND HRRR MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISO-SCT COVERAGE FOR THE EC/SE ZONES TODAY.
AND GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/NAM SUPPORTING PREVIOUS POP/WX
TRENDS INCREASING POP FOR SE 1/4 TONIGHT WITH A PREFERRED AXIS
ALONG/WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY TO EAST SLOPES OF THE SC
MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE EFFECTS WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

OUTSIDE THE SC MTNS AND EC/SE PLAINS...A PREDOMINATELY DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM FORECAST TODAY BENEATH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THAT SHOULD CENTER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE
NM/CO LINE TODAY BEFORE DEFLATING AND SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTH
TONIGHT- SUNDAY. THE SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE ALOFT TODAY
AND THEN TRENDS INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO CENTRAL CA LATE TODAY- TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
SUNDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE PREDOMINATELY DRY FORECAST TODAY
WILL BE CATRON COUNTY/UPPER GILA REGION EXTENDING NORTH TOWARD THE
ZUNI MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NM/AZ LINE WHERE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN THE DEVELOPING S-SELY FLOW. AN
EXPANSION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH AND WEST...AS FORCING FOR LARGE-
SCALE LIFT AIDS CONVECTION SUNDAY PM. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS TO
THE WEST OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOST LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRENGTHENING E-SELY BOUNDARY
LAYER LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER DEW POINT AIR
WESTWARD CONTRIBUTING TO THE OVERALL IMPROVING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES.
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAIRLY FAST BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG CELLS
DEVELOP SUNDAY PM NW ZONES.

CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND PASS NORTH OF THE STATE MONDAY...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. BEST POPS FROM
NE TO SW. TRANSITION TO NWLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY THAT WOULD
FAVOR THE NC/NE AREAS BUT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED- SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH. DEFINITE
DRYING TREND NC/NW ZONES. FOR WED AND BEYOND...ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH
INDICATED INTO THE WEST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PROGRESS EAST. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER OUR
REGION... POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE MOST LIKELY TO DOMINATE
WITH A DEFORMATION AXIS OF SOME SORTS STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES INTO FAR EASTERN NM BUT LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW GRADE
POP FORECAST IN PLACE FOR NOW WITH TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
EAST...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WEST. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL TO S CALIFORNIA COAST TO BE AN IMPORTANT
DRIVER IN LOWERING SFC PRESSURE OVER OR JUST W OF W NM WHICH WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO SOMEWHAT OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS MOST OF THE
EAST TWO THIRDS OR THREE QUARTERS OF NM BY LATE AM TO EARLY PM
TODAY. SOME DRYING THANKS TO A MODERATE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE SE AND ALSO MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ELSEWHERE. GAP WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. RESIDUAL SFC
MOISTURE AND MID TO UPPER LVL FLOW SHIFTING FROM E AND NE TODAY TO
MORE OF A SE TO S FLOW SUN TO SUN NIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD HELP
ENHANCE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR SUN...FAVORING MOST THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN AND EAST AS WELL AS AREAS NEAR TO WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
AFTN TEMPS SHOULD BE WILL COOL ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES MOST SPOTS
EXCEPT PERHAPS A BIT LESS SO ACROSS FAR E NM...BUT REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NE HALF OF THE STATE. SOME BREEZY LEVEL
WIND AREAS EMBEDDED IN THE GENERALLY S TO SE FLOW SUN. VENTILATION
RATES LOOK TO BE FAIR TO GOOD FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR.

MON TO AGAIN SOME WETTING RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EAST AND TO SOME DEGREE SOUTH...LESS WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE NW. VENTILATION NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE A LOT BETWEEN SUNDAY TO MONDAY WITH BETTER READINGS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I40.

A DRYING TREND STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE CARDS OVER THE AREA
STARTING TUE INTO AT LEAST THU...THOUGH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
STILL ANTICIPATED MID WEEK AND FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MTNS EASTWARD. VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SOME, THOUGH NOT
DRASTICALLY...TUE AND WED. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO
APPROACH FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. SOME FCST MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN STRENGTH AND TIMING. GFS MODEL STILL LOOKS
DEEPER AND SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH THE TROUGH THUS SOME WIND IMPACTS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE VENTILATION RATES. ECMWF
STILL IS A BIT SLOWER. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL DRIVING DOWN
CONFIDENCE SOME FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK. 43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KABQ 201216
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
616 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD IFR AND SPOTTY LIFR CIGS AND VSBY ACROSS GOOD PORTION
OF SE PLAINS WEST AND THEN NORTH ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF CENTRAL
MT CHAIN AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TO THE EAST TIL AT
LEAST 15Z OR 16Z BEFORE SOME RISE OR BREAKS IN CIGS SETS IN.
EXPECT MT OBSCURATIONS AS WELL. ELSEWHERE IN EAST NM CIGS ARE A
LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD AND GENERALLY MVFR WITH SOME SPOTTY IFR
MIXED IN. THIS ALSO TO IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORN. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS TO WEST OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN. NEAR SFC WIND FLOW TO
TURN TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES TODAY.
BELOW CANYONS AND PASSES OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN E TO SE WIND GUSTS
WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z. MAINLY FROM NEAR 00Z AND ABOUT
09Z OR A BIT LATER WIND GUSTS TO REACH BETWEEN 28 AND 35 KTS BELOW
CANYONS...INCLUDING ABQ AND SAF WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 15
AND 26 KT. SOME SPOTTY SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z...FAVORING HIGHER
TERRAIN AT FIRST...MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN MTS.
SOME ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ALSO SOME MVFR AND
IFR CIGS AGAIN FAIRLY LIKELY LATER TONIGHT ALONG EAST SLOPES
CENTRAL MT CHAIN AS WELL AS SE AND PERHAPS E CENTRAL PLAINS.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...348 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY MOIST AIR MASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
WHERE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST FAVORED. DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL EXPAND WESTWARD LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN FOR PARTS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS. AN OVERALL UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE STATE AND HELPS TO DRAW MOISTURE
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. DRIER AIR WILL THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST
NEW MEXICO MONDAY AND MOST AREAS TUESDAY. MEANWHILE... TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST AND BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A DRYING
TREND WILL TAKE A STRONGER HOLD ON THE AREA...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS WHERE COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY LINGER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP/EXPAND AND HAVE GREATEST IMPACT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
SLOPES AND ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK.
VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WHERE SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS SOLIDLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. THUS
EVEN WEAK UPSLOPE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THIS ENVIRON ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...AND ALL INDICATIONS
POINT TOWARD A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE E-SE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND MORESO INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LATEST 13KM RAPID REFRESH /RAP/ AND HRRR MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISO-SCT COVERAGE FOR THE EC/SE ZONES TODAY.
AND GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/NAM SUPPORTING PREVIOUS POP/WX
TRENDS INCREASING POP FOR SE 1/4 TONIGHT WITH A PREFERRED AXIS
ALONG/WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY TO EAST SLOPES OF THE SC
MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE EFFECTS WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

OUTSIDE THE SC MTNS AND EC/SE PLAINS...A PREDOMINATELY DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM FORECAST TODAY BENEATH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THAT SHOULD CENTER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE
NM/CO LINE TODAY BEFORE DEFLATING AND SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTH
TONIGHT- SUNDAY. THE SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE ALOFT TODAY
AND THEN TRENDS INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO CENTRAL CA LATE TODAY- TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
SUNDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE PREDOMINATELY DRY FORECAST TODAY
WILL BE CATRON COUNTY/UPPER GILA REGION EXTENDING NORTH TOWARD THE
ZUNI MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NM/AZ LINE WHERE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN THE DEVELOPING S-SELY FLOW. AN
EXPANSION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH AND WEST...AS FORCING FOR LARGE-
SCALE LIFT AIDS CONVECTION SUNDAY PM. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS TO
THE WEST OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOST LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRENGTHENING E-SELY BOUNDARY
LAYER LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER DEW POINT AIR
WESTWARD CONTRIBUTING TO THE OVERALL IMPROVING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES.
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAIRLY FAST BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG CELLS
DEVELOP SUNDAY PM NW ZONES.

CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND PASS NORTH OF THE STATE MONDAY...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. BEST POPS FROM
NE TO SW. TRANSITION TO NWLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY THAT WOULD
FAVOR THE NC/NE AREAS BUT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED- SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH. DEFINITE
DRYING TREND NC/NW ZONES. FOR WED AND BEYOND...ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH
INDICATED INTO THE WEST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PROGRESS EAST. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER OUR
REGION... POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE MOST LIKELY TO DOMINATE
WITH A DEFORMATION AXIS OF SOME SORTS STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES INTO FAR EASTERN NM BUT LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW GRADE
POP FORECAST IN PLACE FOR NOW WITH TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
EAST...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WEST. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL TO S CALIFORNIA COAST TO BE AN IMPORTANT
DRIVER IN LOWERING SFC PRESSURE OVER OR JUST W OF W NM WHICH WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO SOMEWHAT OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS MOST OF THE
EAST TWO THIRDS OR THREE QUARTERS OF NM BY LATE AM TO EARLY PM
TODAY. SOME DRYING THANKS TO A MODERATE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE SE AND ALSO MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ELSEWHERE. GAP WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. RESIDUAL SFC
MOISTURE AND MID TO UPPER LVL FLOW SHIFTING FROM E AND NE TODAY TO
MORE OF A SE TO S FLOW SUN TO SUN NIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD HELP
ENHANCE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR SUN...FAVORING MOST THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN AND EAST AS WELL AS AREAS NEAR TO WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
AFTN TEMPS SHOULD BE WILL COOL ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES MOST SPOTS
EXCEPT PERHAPS A BIT LESS SO ACROSS FAR E NM...BUT REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NE HALF OF THE STATE. SOME BREEZY LEVEL
WIND AREAS EMBEDDED IN THE GENERALLY S TO SE FLOW SUN. VENTILATION
RATES LOOK TO BE FAIR TO GOOD FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR.

MON TO AGAIN SOME WETTING RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EAST AND TO SOME DEGREE SOUTH...LESS WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE NW. VENTILATION NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE A LOT BETWEEN SUNDAY TO MONDAY WITH BETTER READINGS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I40.

A DRYING TREND STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE CARDS OVER THE AREA
STARTING TUE INTO AT LEAST THU...THOUGH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
STILL ANTICIPATED MID WEEK AND FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MTNS EASTWARD. VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SOME, THOUGH NOT
DRASTICALLY...TUE AND WED. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO
APPROACH FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. SOME FCST MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN STRENGTH AND TIMING. GFS MODEL STILL LOOKS
DEEPER AND SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH THE TROUGH THUS SOME WIND IMPACTS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE VENTILATION RATES. ECMWF
STILL IS A BIT SLOWER. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL DRIVING DOWN
CONFIDENCE SOME FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK. 43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 201216
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
616 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD IFR AND SPOTTY LIFR CIGS AND VSBY ACROSS GOOD PORTION
OF SE PLAINS WEST AND THEN NORTH ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF CENTRAL
MT CHAIN AND IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TO THE EAST TIL AT
LEAST 15Z OR 16Z BEFORE SOME RISE OR BREAKS IN CIGS SETS IN.
EXPECT MT OBSCURATIONS AS WELL. ELSEWHERE IN EAST NM CIGS ARE A
LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD AND GENERALLY MVFR WITH SOME SPOTTY IFR
MIXED IN. THIS ALSO TO IMPROVE MID TO LATE MORN. MOSTLY VFR
CONDITIONS TO WEST OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN. NEAR SFC WIND FLOW TO
TURN TO MORE OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT AS THE DAY PROGRESSES TODAY.
BELOW CANYONS AND PASSES OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN E TO SE WIND GUSTS
WILL DEVELOP BETWEEN 21 AND 00Z. MAINLY FROM NEAR 00Z AND ABOUT
09Z OR A BIT LATER WIND GUSTS TO REACH BETWEEN 28 AND 35 KTS BELOW
CANYONS...INCLUDING ABQ AND SAF WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS BETWEEN 15
AND 26 KT. SOME SPOTTY SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP MAINLY SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS NEAR AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 20Z...FAVORING HIGHER
TERRAIN AT FIRST...MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY ACROSS NORTHERN MTS.
SOME ACTIVITY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. ALSO SOME MVFR AND
IFR CIGS AGAIN FAIRLY LIKELY LATER TONIGHT ALONG EAST SLOPES
CENTRAL MT CHAIN AS WELL AS SE AND PERHAPS E CENTRAL PLAINS.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...348 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
VERY MOIST AIR MASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
WHERE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST FAVORED. DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL EXPAND WESTWARD LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN FOR PARTS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS. AN OVERALL UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE STATE AND HELPS TO DRAW MOISTURE
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. DRIER AIR WILL THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST
NEW MEXICO MONDAY AND MOST AREAS TUESDAY. MEANWHILE... TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST AND BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A DRYING
TREND WILL TAKE A STRONGER HOLD ON THE AREA...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS WHERE COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY LINGER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP/EXPAND AND HAVE GREATEST IMPACT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
SLOPES AND ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK.
VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WHERE SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS SOLIDLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. THUS
EVEN WEAK UPSLOPE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THIS ENVIRON ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...AND ALL INDICATIONS
POINT TOWARD A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE E-SE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND MORESO INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LATEST 13KM RAPID REFRESH /RAP/ AND HRRR MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISO-SCT COVERAGE FOR THE EC/SE ZONES TODAY.
AND GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/NAM SUPPORTING PREVIOUS POP/WX
TRENDS INCREASING POP FOR SE 1/4 TONIGHT WITH A PREFERRED AXIS
ALONG/WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY TO EAST SLOPES OF THE SC
MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE EFFECTS WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

OUTSIDE THE SC MTNS AND EC/SE PLAINS...A PREDOMINATELY DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM FORECAST TODAY BENEATH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THAT SHOULD CENTER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE
NM/CO LINE TODAY BEFORE DEFLATING AND SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTH
TONIGHT- SUNDAY. THE SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE ALOFT TODAY
AND THEN TRENDS INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO CENTRAL CA LATE TODAY- TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
SUNDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE PREDOMINATELY DRY FORECAST TODAY
WILL BE CATRON COUNTY/UPPER GILA REGION EXTENDING NORTH TOWARD THE
ZUNI MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NM/AZ LINE WHERE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN THE DEVELOPING S-SELY FLOW. AN
EXPANSION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH AND WEST...AS FORCING FOR LARGE-
SCALE LIFT AIDS CONVECTION SUNDAY PM. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS TO
THE WEST OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOST LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRENGTHENING E-SELY BOUNDARY
LAYER LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER DEW POINT AIR
WESTWARD CONTRIBUTING TO THE OVERALL IMPROVING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES.
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAIRLY FAST BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG CELLS
DEVELOP SUNDAY PM NW ZONES.

CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND PASS NORTH OF THE STATE MONDAY...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. BEST POPS FROM
NE TO SW. TRANSITION TO NWLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY THAT WOULD
FAVOR THE NC/NE AREAS BUT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED- SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH. DEFINITE
DRYING TREND NC/NW ZONES. FOR WED AND BEYOND...ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH
INDICATED INTO THE WEST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PROGRESS EAST. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER OUR
REGION... POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE MOST LIKELY TO DOMINATE
WITH A DEFORMATION AXIS OF SOME SORTS STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES INTO FAR EASTERN NM BUT LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW GRADE
POP FORECAST IN PLACE FOR NOW WITH TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
EAST...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WEST. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL TO S CALIFORNIA COAST TO BE AN IMPORTANT
DRIVER IN LOWERING SFC PRESSURE OVER OR JUST W OF W NM WHICH WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO SOMEWHAT OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS MOST OF THE
EAST TWO THIRDS OR THREE QUARTERS OF NM BY LATE AM TO EARLY PM
TODAY. SOME DRYING THANKS TO A MODERATE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE SE AND ALSO MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ELSEWHERE. GAP WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. RESIDUAL SFC
MOISTURE AND MID TO UPPER LVL FLOW SHIFTING FROM E AND NE TODAY TO
MORE OF A SE TO S FLOW SUN TO SUN NIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD HELP
ENHANCE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR SUN...FAVORING MOST THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN AND EAST AS WELL AS AREAS NEAR TO WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
AFTN TEMPS SHOULD BE WILL COOL ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES MOST SPOTS
EXCEPT PERHAPS A BIT LESS SO ACROSS FAR E NM...BUT REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NE HALF OF THE STATE. SOME BREEZY LEVEL
WIND AREAS EMBEDDED IN THE GENERALLY S TO SE FLOW SUN. VENTILATION
RATES LOOK TO BE FAIR TO GOOD FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR.

MON TO AGAIN SOME WETTING RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EAST AND TO SOME DEGREE SOUTH...LESS WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE NW. VENTILATION NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE A LOT BETWEEN SUNDAY TO MONDAY WITH BETTER READINGS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I40.

A DRYING TREND STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE CARDS OVER THE AREA
STARTING TUE INTO AT LEAST THU...THOUGH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
STILL ANTICIPATED MID WEEK AND FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MTNS EASTWARD. VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SOME, THOUGH NOT
DRASTICALLY...TUE AND WED. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO
APPROACH FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. SOME FCST MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN STRENGTH AND TIMING. GFS MODEL STILL LOOKS
DEEPER AND SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH THE TROUGH THUS SOME WIND IMPACTS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE VENTILATION RATES. ECMWF
STILL IS A BIT SLOWER. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL DRIVING DOWN
CONFIDENCE SOME FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK. 43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 200948
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
348 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
VERY MOIST AIR MASS TO REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO
WHERE SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST FAVORED. DEEPER MOISTURE
WILL EXPAND WESTWARD LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN FOR PARTS OF THE
EASTERN PLAINS. AN OVERALL UPTICK IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY AND SUNDAY EVENING AS A DISTURBANCE
ALOFT PASSES JUST NORTH OF THE STATE AND HELPS TO DRAW MOISTURE
FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. DRIER AIR WILL THEN SPREAD EASTWARD INTO NORTHWEST
NEW MEXICO MONDAY AND MOST AREAS TUESDAY. MEANWHILE... TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST AND BELOW
NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...A DRYING
TREND WILL TAKE A STRONGER HOLD ON THE AREA...AND TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHEAST
PLAINS WHERE COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURE WILL LIKELY LINGER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EXTENSIVE LOW CLOUDS AND AT LEAST PATCHY DENSE FOG EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EARLY THIS MORNING. EXPECT FOG TO
DEVELOP/EXPAND AND HAVE GREATEST IMPACT ALONG THE IMMEDIATE EAST
SLOPES AND ALONG THE WESTERN FRINGES OF PERSISTENT STRATUS DECK.
VERY MOIST AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS
WHERE SURFACE DEW POINT TEMPS SOLIDLY IN THE MID/UPPER 60S. THUS
EVEN WEAK UPSLOPE/LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN THIS ENVIRON ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...AND ALL INDICATIONS
POINT TOWARD A GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE E-SE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS ACROSS THE PLAINS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES AND MORESO INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. LATEST 13KM RAPID REFRESH /RAP/ AND HRRR MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT ISO-SCT COVERAGE FOR THE EC/SE ZONES TODAY.
AND GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS/NAM SUPPORTING PREVIOUS POP/WX
TRENDS INCREASING POP FOR SE 1/4 TONIGHT WITH A PREFERRED AXIS
ALONG/WEST OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY TO EAST SLOPES OF THE SC
MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE EFFECTS WILL BE MAXIMIZED.

OUTSIDE THE SC MTNS AND EC/SE PLAINS...A PREDOMINATELY DRY AND
UNSEASONABLY WARM FORECAST TODAY BENEATH GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT THAT SHOULD CENTER NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE
NM/CO LINE TODAY BEFORE DEFLATING AND SHIFTING EAST AND SOUTH
TONIGHT- SUNDAY. THE SLIGHT AMPLIFICATION OF THE RIDGE ALOFT TODAY
AND THEN TRENDS INTO SUNDAY DUE TO A CLOSED LOW FORECAST TO MOVE
INTO CENTRAL CA LATE TODAY- TONIGHT THEN ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
SUNDAY. THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THE PREDOMINATELY DRY FORECAST TODAY
WILL BE CATRON COUNTY/UPPER GILA REGION EXTENDING NORTH TOWARD THE
ZUNI MOUNTAINS NEAR THE NM/AZ LINE WHERE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
EXPECTED TO ADVECT NORTHWARD IN THE DEVELOPING S-SELY FLOW. AN
EXPANSION OF ISOLATED TO SCATTERED POPS EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY
SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY THE NORTH AND WEST...AS FORCING FOR LARGE-
SCALE LIFT AIDS CONVECTION SUNDAY PM. SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS TO
THE WEST OF THE STATE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CA LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
MOST LIKELY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE STRENGTHENING E-SELY BOUNDARY
LAYER LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT. THIS WILL BRING HIGHER DEW POINT AIR
WESTWARD CONTRIBUTING TO THE OVERALL IMPROVING SHRA/TSRA CHANCES.
STORM MOTIONS WILL BE FAIRLY FAST BUT COULD SEE A FEW STRONG CELLS
DEVELOP SUNDAY PM NW ZONES.

CLOSED LOW TO OPEN UP AND PASS NORTH OF THE STATE MONDAY...WITH
PROGRESSIVELY DRIER AIR MASS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS. BEST POPS FROM
NE TO SW. TRANSITION TO NWLY FLOW ALOFT ON TUESDAY THAT WOULD
FAVOR THE NC/NE AREAS BUT WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE CANNOT RULE OUT
ISOLATED- SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE EAST AND SOUTH. DEFINITE
DRYING TREND NC/NW ZONES. FOR WED AND BEYOND...ANOTHER DEEP TROUGH
INDICATED INTO THE WEST COAST LATE NEXT WEEK BUT MUCH UNCERTAINTY
ON HOW QUICKLY IT WILL PROGRESS EAST. FARTHER DOWNSTREAM OVER OUR
REGION... POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER RIDGE MOST LIKELY TO DOMINATE
WITH A DEFORMATION AXIS OF SOME SORTS STRETCHING FROM THE CENTRAL
PLAINS STATES INTO FAR EASTERN NM BUT LOW CONFIDENCE. LOW GRADE
POP FORECAST IN PLACE FOR NOW WITH TEMPS GENERALLY BELOW NORMAL
EAST...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE WEST. KJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL TO S CALIFORNIA COAST TO BE AN IMPORTANT
DRIVER IN LOWERING SFC PRESSURE OVER OR JUST W OF W NM WHICH WILL
SHIFT WINDS TO SOMEWHAT OF AN EASTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS MOST OF THE
EAST TWO THIRDS OR THREE QUARTERS OF NM BY LATE AM TO EARLY PM
TODAY. SOME DRYING THANKS TO A MODERATE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
EXPECTED MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN TO BE FOUND ACROSS THE SE AND ALSO MUCH OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
ELSEWHERE. GAP WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BE EXPECTED
ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. RESIDUAL SFC
MOISTURE AND MID TO UPPER LVL FLOW SHIFTING FROM E AND NE TODAY TO
MORE OF A SE TO S FLOW SUN TO SUN NIGHT PERIOD. THIS SHOULD HELP
ENHANCE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL FOR SUN...FAVORING MOST THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN AND EAST AS WELL AS AREAS NEAR TO WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
AFTN TEMPS SHOULD BE WILL COOL ROUGHLY 5 TO 10 DEGREES MOST SPOTS
EXCEPT PERHAPS A BIT LESS SO ACROSS FAR E NM...BUT REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NE HALF OF THE STATE. SOME BREEZY LEVEL
WIND AREAS EMBEDDED IN THE GENERALLY S TO SE FLOW SUN. VENTILATION
RATES LOOK TO BE FAIR TO GOOD FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40
CORRIDOR.

MON TO AGAIN SOME WETTING RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
IN THE EAST AND TO SOME DEGREE SOUTH...LESS WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL
WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE NW. VENTILATION NOT EXPECTED TO
CHANGE A LOT BETWEEN SUNDAY TO MONDAY WITH BETTER READINGS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF I40.

A DRYING TREND STILL APPEARS TO BE IN THE CARDS OVER THE AREA
STARTING TUE INTO AT LEAST THU...THOUGH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS
STILL ANTICIPATED MID WEEK AND FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MTNS EASTWARD. VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SOME, THOUGH NOT
DRASTICALLY...TUE AND WED. THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL LOOKS TO
APPROACH FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. SOME FCST MODEL
DIFFERENCES REMAIN IN STRENGTH AND TIMING. GFS MODEL STILL LOOKS
DEEPER AND SOMEWHAT FASTER WITH THE TROUGH THUS SOME WIND IMPACTS
POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. THIS SHOULD IMPROVE VENTILATION RATES. ECMWF
STILL IS A BIT SLOWER. MODEL DIFFERENCES STILL DRIVING DOWN
CONFIDENCE SOME FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK. 43

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
IFR CIGS WORKING INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND IN TAFS FOR
TCC...ROW...AND LVS. RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWARD ACROSS NM IN THE
WAKE OF ODILE...AS SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IMPARTS
EASTERLY COMPONENTS TO SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
GUSTS SQUIRTING THROUGH CENTRAL MT CHAIN GAPS OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY REFLECTED IN G30KT WINDS AT ABQ AND SAF FROM 01Z ONWARD SAT
EVENING. NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DRIFTING INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND
IN TAFS FOR GUP AND FMN. OVERNIGHT MT OBSCURATION OVER THE
NORTHERN MTS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE SAT NIGHT.

SHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  88  60  85  56 /   5  30  30  40
DULCE...........................  87  49  80  47 /  10  30  40  50
CUBA............................  84  51  78  51 /  10  20  40  40
GALLUP..........................  85  51  80  48 /  10  30  40  40
EL MORRO........................  79  50  75  49 /  10  30  40  50
GRANTS..........................  83  54  78  52 /  10  30  40  40
QUEMADO.........................  79  53  75  52 /  20  30  50  40
GLENWOOD........................  83  52  82  54 /  30  30  30  30
CHAMA...........................  80  43  75  42 /  10  30  40  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  81  57  74  55 /  10  20  40  40
PECOS...........................  77  53  69  52 /  10  30  50  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  78  48  75  48 /  10  20  40  40
RED RIVER.......................  71  44  66  44 /  10  30  50  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  74  38  70  41 /  10  30  50  50
TAOS............................  81  50  73  49 /  10  20  30  40
MORA............................  77  50  68  50 /  10  30  50  50
ESPANOLA........................  86  55  79  55 /  10  20  30  30
SANTA FE........................  80  55  74  55 /  10  20  40  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  84  55  77  55 /  10  20  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  84  61  78  61 /  10  20  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  85  63  80  62 /  10  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  86  60  81  61 /  10  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  87  61  82  61 /  10  20  30  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  86  58  81  58 /  10  20  30  30
RIO RANCHO......................  89  61  83  61 /  10  20  30  30
SOCORRO.........................  86  62  83  62 /  10  30  40  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  82  57  78  57 /  10  30  40  40
TIJERAS.........................  83  57  78  57 /  10  30  40  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  81  49  74  50 /  10  30  50  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  77  54  70  54 /  10  40  60  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  78  57  71  57 /  20  40  50  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  81  60  74  60 /  20  40  50  30
RUIDOSO.........................  74  54  70  54 /  20  50  60  50
CAPULIN.........................  77  53  70  52 /  10  20  30  30
RATON...........................  82  52  76  52 /  10  20  40  30
SPRINGER........................  83  53  74  54 /  10  30  40  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  78  52  71  52 /  10  40  60  50
CLAYTON.........................  82  59  77  57 /  10  20  30  30
ROY.............................  79  56  73  56 /  10  30  40  50
CONCHAS.........................  82  62  78  62 /  20  40  40  50
SANTA ROSA......................  80  61  74  61 /  20  50  50  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  83  63  80  62 /  20  30  40  40
CLOVIS..........................  77  62  76  61 /  40  40  50  50
PORTALES........................  78  62  77  62 /  40  40  50  50
FORT SUMNER.....................  81  62  75  62 /  20  50  50  50
ROSWELL.........................  80  65  78  64 /  20  50  60  50
PICACHO.........................  77  59  71  60 /  20  50  60  50
ELK.............................  73  56  68  57 /  30  50  60  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

41





000
FXUS65 KABQ 200528 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
IFR CIGS WORKING INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND IN TAFS FOR
TCC...ROW...AND LVS. RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWARD ACROSS NM IN THE
WAKE OF ODILE...AS SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IMPARTS
EASTERLY COMPONENTS TO SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
GUSTS SQUIRTING THROUGH CENTRAL MT CHAIN GAPS OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY REFLECTED IN G30KT WINDS AT ABQ AND SAF FROM 01Z ONWARD SAT
EVENING. NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DRIFTING INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND
IN TAFS FOR GUP AND FMN. OVERNIGHT MT OBSCURATION OVER THE
NORTHERN MTS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE SAT NIGHT.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...743 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO GENERATE LOTS OF QPF BUT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING
NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN OVER SERN NM.
INTERESTINGLY...A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN COLORADO CONTINUES TO DRIFT SWED TOWARD
THE CHAMA AREA. LEFT IN ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING
ALONG/NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER IN NORTH-CENTRAL NM AS A RESULT.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...308 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. THOUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET...AS MOISTURE
MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RAMP BACK UP AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST AND BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE
DWINDLING...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL AREA WIDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH QPF PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THIS IS
MAINLY BECAUSE ODILE CONTINUES TO STAY SOUTH OF PROJECTED TRACKS.
INTERESTINGLY...MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QPF BULLS-
EYES OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THRU THE OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE LATEST HRRR HAS TAKEN THE OPPOSITE TUNE...WITH ALMOST NO PRECIP
PREDICTED. EXPECT REALITY TO BE CLOSER TO THE DRIER
SCENARIO...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS SHOULD PERCOLATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
PLAINS...MUCH LIKE WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW. HAVE ALSO LEFT IN ISOLATED
THUNDER...BUT NOT CONFIDENT MUCH OF THAT WILL HAPPEN.

AS ODILE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY...ITS
POOL OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF
CALI...AND A WEAK UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER NM. AS A
RESULT...LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY. THOUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET IN TERMS OF CONVECTION...AS
THE POOL OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...UP SLOPE
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTN AND EVENING. SHOULD ALSO SEE AN EAST CANYON
WIND PICK UP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NEWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED INTO NM FROM THE S AND SE.
INCREASED POPS AREA WIDE...THOUGH GENERALLY STAY A BIT CONSERVATIVE.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...GENERALLY AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE NW BUT STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
PASS MONDAY NIGHT...AND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THIS
SHOULD TEMPORARILY HALT ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM MOVING NORTHWARD.

A WEAK UPPER HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NM FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE AROUND TO
SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. THE 12Z GFS AND LAST NIGHTS ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US NEXT FRIDAY THRU THE
WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING UP ANOTHER BOUT OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FOR NM NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW
THE TROUGH AS FAR SOUTH...THUS NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION
NORTHWARD. STAY TUNED.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL KEEP HIGH HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH WETTING RAIN REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. EASTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF. DRYING VIA A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GAP WIND GUSTS RANGING
FROM 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A MODERATELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR
WEST WILL ENHANCE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AREA WIDE FOR SUNDAY.
GREATEST EMPHASIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL 5 TO 10 DEGREES AREA WIDE BUT REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY. VENTILATION RATES LOOK TO BE
FAIR TO GOOD FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.

MONDAY WILL STILL SEE WETTING RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...LESS WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST. VENTILATION NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
A LOT BETWEEN SUNDAY TO MONDAY WITH BETTER READINGS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I40.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING A DRYING TREND OVER THE
AREA STARTING TUESDAY ALTHOUGH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL
ANTICIPATED MID WEEK AND FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS
EASTWARD. VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SOME TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
BUT NOT FALL OUT OF SIGHT. MODELS COULD IMPROVE THE NUMBERS AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THAT PERIOD.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN A LITTLE DIFFERENT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF IMPACTS. THE GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE TROUGH THUS SOME WIND IMPACTS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. THIS
IMPACTS VENTILATION RATES. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER. LOWER CONFIDENCE
PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

32/50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33







000
FXUS65 KABQ 200528 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
IFR CIGS WORKING INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AND IN TAFS FOR
TCC...ROW...AND LVS. RIDGE BUILDING NORTHWARD ACROSS NM IN THE
WAKE OF ODILE...AS SURFACE LOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO IMPARTS
EASTERLY COMPONENTS TO SURFACE WINDS THROUGH THE DAY ON SATURDAY.
GUSTS SQUIRTING THROUGH CENTRAL MT CHAIN GAPS OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY REFLECTED IN G30KT WINDS AT ABQ AND SAF FROM 01Z ONWARD SAT
EVENING. NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL
SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS DRIFTING INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO AND
IN TAFS FOR GUP AND FMN. OVERNIGHT MT OBSCURATION OVER THE
NORTHERN MTS AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER LATE SAT NIGHT.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...743 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO GENERATE LOTS OF QPF BUT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING
NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN OVER SERN NM.
INTERESTINGLY...A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN COLORADO CONTINUES TO DRIFT SWED TOWARD
THE CHAMA AREA. LEFT IN ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING
ALONG/NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER IN NORTH-CENTRAL NM AS A RESULT.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...308 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. THOUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET...AS MOISTURE
MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RAMP BACK UP AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST AND BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE
DWINDLING...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL AREA WIDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH QPF PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THIS IS
MAINLY BECAUSE ODILE CONTINUES TO STAY SOUTH OF PROJECTED TRACKS.
INTERESTINGLY...MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QPF BULLS-
EYES OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THRU THE OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE LATEST HRRR HAS TAKEN THE OPPOSITE TUNE...WITH ALMOST NO PRECIP
PREDICTED. EXPECT REALITY TO BE CLOSER TO THE DRIER
SCENARIO...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS SHOULD PERCOLATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
PLAINS...MUCH LIKE WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW. HAVE ALSO LEFT IN ISOLATED
THUNDER...BUT NOT CONFIDENT MUCH OF THAT WILL HAPPEN.

AS ODILE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY...ITS
POOL OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF
CALI...AND A WEAK UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER NM. AS A
RESULT...LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY. THOUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET IN TERMS OF CONVECTION...AS
THE POOL OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...UP SLOPE
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTN AND EVENING. SHOULD ALSO SEE AN EAST CANYON
WIND PICK UP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NEWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED INTO NM FROM THE S AND SE.
INCREASED POPS AREA WIDE...THOUGH GENERALLY STAY A BIT CONSERVATIVE.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...GENERALLY AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE NW BUT STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
PASS MONDAY NIGHT...AND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THIS
SHOULD TEMPORARILY HALT ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM MOVING NORTHWARD.

A WEAK UPPER HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NM FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE AROUND TO
SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. THE 12Z GFS AND LAST NIGHTS ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US NEXT FRIDAY THRU THE
WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING UP ANOTHER BOUT OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FOR NM NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW
THE TROUGH AS FAR SOUTH...THUS NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION
NORTHWARD. STAY TUNED.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL KEEP HIGH HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH WETTING RAIN REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. EASTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF. DRYING VIA A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GAP WIND GUSTS RANGING
FROM 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A MODERATELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR
WEST WILL ENHANCE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AREA WIDE FOR SUNDAY.
GREATEST EMPHASIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL 5 TO 10 DEGREES AREA WIDE BUT REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY. VENTILATION RATES LOOK TO BE
FAIR TO GOOD FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.

MONDAY WILL STILL SEE WETTING RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...LESS WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST. VENTILATION NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
A LOT BETWEEN SUNDAY TO MONDAY WITH BETTER READINGS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I40.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING A DRYING TREND OVER THE
AREA STARTING TUESDAY ALTHOUGH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL
ANTICIPATED MID WEEK AND FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS
EASTWARD. VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SOME TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
BUT NOT FALL OUT OF SIGHT. MODELS COULD IMPROVE THE NUMBERS AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THAT PERIOD.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN A LITTLE DIFFERENT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF IMPACTS. THE GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE TROUGH THUS SOME WIND IMPACTS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. THIS
IMPACTS VENTILATION RATES. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER. LOWER CONFIDENCE
PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

32/50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33






000
FXUS65 KABQ 200143 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
743 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO GENERATE LOTS OF QPF BUT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING
NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN OVER SERN NM.
INTERESTINGLY...A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN COLORADO CONTINUES TO DRIFT SWED TOWARD
THE CHAMA AREA. LEFT IN ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING
ALONG/NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER IN NORTH-CENTRAL NM AS A RESULT.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...536 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD TSTMS CONTG NEAR THE AZ LINE...AND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS ODILE LEFTOVERS MOVE OFF INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE EAST WILL SUPPORT
BROAD AREAS OF EASTERN LOW CIGS AND FOG. SCT CLOUD GROUPS AND VCFG
IN EASTERN TAFS WILL SERVE AS PLACEHOLDERS FOR LOWEST EXPECTED CIG
EXCURSION DURING THE VALID PERIOD. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH 00Z SAT AFTERNOON WILL BACK LOW
LEVEL WINDS TO EASTERLY...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR UP SLOPE SHOWER
ENHANCEMENT AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF SATURDAY.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...308 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. THOUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET...AS MOISTURE
MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RAMP BACK UP AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST AND BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE
DWINDLING...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL AREA WIDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH QPF PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THIS IS
MAINLY BECAUSE ODILE CONTINUES TO STAY SOUTH OF PROJECTED TRACKS.
INTERESTINGLY...MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QPF BULLS-
EYES OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THRU THE OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE LATEST HRRR HAS TAKEN THE OPPOSITE TUNE...WITH ALMOST NO PRECIP
PREDICTED. EXPECT REALITY TO BE CLOSER TO THE DRIER
SCENARIO...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS SHOULD PERCOLATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
PLAINS...MUCH LIKE WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW. HAVE ALSO LEFT IN ISOLATED
THUNDER...BUT NOT CONFIDENT MUCH OF THAT WILL HAPPEN.

AS ODILE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY...ITS
POOL OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF
CALI...AND A WEAK UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER NM. AS A
RESULT...LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY. THOUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET IN TERMS OF CONVECTION...AS
THE POOL OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...UP SLOPE
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTN AND EVENING. SHOULD ALSO SEE AN EAST CANYON
WIND PICK UP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NEWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED INTO NM FROM THE S AND SE.
INCREASED POPS AREA WIDE...THOUGH GENERALLY STAY A BIT CONSERVATIVE.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...GENERALLY AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE NW BUT STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
PASS MONDAY NIGHT...AND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THIS
SHOULD TEMPORARILY HALT ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM MOVING NORTHWARD.

A WEAK UPPER HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NM FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE AROUND TO
SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. THE 12Z GFS AND LAST NIGHTS ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US NEXT FRIDAY THRU THE
WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING UP ANOTHER BOUT OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FOR NM NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW
THE TROUGH AS FAR SOUTH...THUS NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION
NORTHWARD. STAY TUNED.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL KEEP HIGH HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH WETTING RAIN REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. EASTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF. DRYING VIA A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GAP WIND GUSTS RANGING
FROM 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A MODERATELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR
WEST WILL ENHANCE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AREA WIDE FOR SUNDAY.
GREATEST EMPHASIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL 5 TO 10 DEGREES AREA WIDE BUT REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY. VENTILATION RATES LOOK TO BE
FAIR TO GOOD FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.

MONDAY WILL STILL SEE WETTING RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...LESS WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST. VENTILATION NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
A LOT BETWEEN SUNDAY TO MONDAY WITH BETTER READINGS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I40.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING A DRYING TREND OVER THE
AREA STARTING TUESDAY ALTHOUGH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL
ANTICIPATED MID WEEK AND FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS
EASTWARD. VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SOME TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
BUT NOT FALL OUT OF SIGHT. MODELS COULD IMPROVE THE NUMBERS AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THAT PERIOD.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN A LITTLE DIFFERENT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF IMPACTS. THE GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE TROUGH THUS SOME WIND IMPACTS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. THIS
IMPACTS VENTILATION RATES. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER. LOWER CONFIDENCE
PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

32/50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33











000
FXUS65 KABQ 200143 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
743 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO GENERATE LOTS OF QPF BUT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING
NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN OVER SERN NM.
INTERESTINGLY...A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN COLORADO CONTINUES TO DRIFT SWED TOWARD
THE CHAMA AREA. LEFT IN ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING
ALONG/NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER IN NORTH-CENTRAL NM AS A RESULT.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...536 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD TSTMS CONTG NEAR THE AZ LINE...AND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS ODILE LEFTOVERS MOVE OFF INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE EAST WILL SUPPORT
BROAD AREAS OF EASTERN LOW CIGS AND FOG. SCT CLOUD GROUPS AND VCFG
IN EASTERN TAFS WILL SERVE AS PLACEHOLDERS FOR LOWEST EXPECTED CIG
EXCURSION DURING THE VALID PERIOD. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH 00Z SAT AFTERNOON WILL BACK LOW
LEVEL WINDS TO EASTERLY...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR UP SLOPE SHOWER
ENHANCEMENT AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF SATURDAY.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...308 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. THOUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET...AS MOISTURE
MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RAMP BACK UP AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST AND BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE
DWINDLING...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL AREA WIDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH QPF PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THIS IS
MAINLY BECAUSE ODILE CONTINUES TO STAY SOUTH OF PROJECTED TRACKS.
INTERESTINGLY...MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QPF BULLS-
EYES OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THRU THE OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE LATEST HRRR HAS TAKEN THE OPPOSITE TUNE...WITH ALMOST NO PRECIP
PREDICTED. EXPECT REALITY TO BE CLOSER TO THE DRIER
SCENARIO...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS SHOULD PERCOLATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
PLAINS...MUCH LIKE WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW. HAVE ALSO LEFT IN ISOLATED
THUNDER...BUT NOT CONFIDENT MUCH OF THAT WILL HAPPEN.

AS ODILE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY...ITS
POOL OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF
CALI...AND A WEAK UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER NM. AS A
RESULT...LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY. THOUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET IN TERMS OF CONVECTION...AS
THE POOL OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...UP SLOPE
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTN AND EVENING. SHOULD ALSO SEE AN EAST CANYON
WIND PICK UP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NEWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED INTO NM FROM THE S AND SE.
INCREASED POPS AREA WIDE...THOUGH GENERALLY STAY A BIT CONSERVATIVE.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...GENERALLY AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE NW BUT STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
PASS MONDAY NIGHT...AND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THIS
SHOULD TEMPORARILY HALT ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM MOVING NORTHWARD.

A WEAK UPPER HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NM FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE AROUND TO
SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. THE 12Z GFS AND LAST NIGHTS ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US NEXT FRIDAY THRU THE
WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING UP ANOTHER BOUT OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FOR NM NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW
THE TROUGH AS FAR SOUTH...THUS NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION
NORTHWARD. STAY TUNED.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL KEEP HIGH HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH WETTING RAIN REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. EASTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF. DRYING VIA A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GAP WIND GUSTS RANGING
FROM 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A MODERATELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR
WEST WILL ENHANCE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AREA WIDE FOR SUNDAY.
GREATEST EMPHASIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL 5 TO 10 DEGREES AREA WIDE BUT REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY. VENTILATION RATES LOOK TO BE
FAIR TO GOOD FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.

MONDAY WILL STILL SEE WETTING RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...LESS WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST. VENTILATION NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
A LOT BETWEEN SUNDAY TO MONDAY WITH BETTER READINGS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I40.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING A DRYING TREND OVER THE
AREA STARTING TUESDAY ALTHOUGH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL
ANTICIPATED MID WEEK AND FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS
EASTWARD. VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SOME TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
BUT NOT FALL OUT OF SIGHT. MODELS COULD IMPROVE THE NUMBERS AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THAT PERIOD.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN A LITTLE DIFFERENT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF IMPACTS. THE GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE TROUGH THUS SOME WIND IMPACTS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. THIS
IMPACTS VENTILATION RATES. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER. LOWER CONFIDENCE
PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

32/50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33











000
FXUS65 KABQ 200143 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
743 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO GENERATE LOTS OF QPF BUT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING
NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN OVER SERN NM.
INTERESTINGLY...A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN COLORADO CONTINUES TO DRIFT SWED TOWARD
THE CHAMA AREA. LEFT IN ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING
ALONG/NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER IN NORTH-CENTRAL NM AS A RESULT.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...536 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD TSTMS CONTG NEAR THE AZ LINE...AND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS ODILE LEFTOVERS MOVE OFF INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE EAST WILL SUPPORT
BROAD AREAS OF EASTERN LOW CIGS AND FOG. SCT CLOUD GROUPS AND VCFG
IN EASTERN TAFS WILL SERVE AS PLACEHOLDERS FOR LOWEST EXPECTED CIG
EXCURSION DURING THE VALID PERIOD. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH 00Z SAT AFTERNOON WILL BACK LOW
LEVEL WINDS TO EASTERLY...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR UP SLOPE SHOWER
ENHANCEMENT AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF SATURDAY.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...308 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. THOUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET...AS MOISTURE
MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RAMP BACK UP AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST AND BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE
DWINDLING...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL AREA WIDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH QPF PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THIS IS
MAINLY BECAUSE ODILE CONTINUES TO STAY SOUTH OF PROJECTED TRACKS.
INTERESTINGLY...MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QPF BULLS-
EYES OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THRU THE OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE LATEST HRRR HAS TAKEN THE OPPOSITE TUNE...WITH ALMOST NO PRECIP
PREDICTED. EXPECT REALITY TO BE CLOSER TO THE DRIER
SCENARIO...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS SHOULD PERCOLATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
PLAINS...MUCH LIKE WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW. HAVE ALSO LEFT IN ISOLATED
THUNDER...BUT NOT CONFIDENT MUCH OF THAT WILL HAPPEN.

AS ODILE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY...ITS
POOL OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF
CALI...AND A WEAK UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER NM. AS A
RESULT...LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY. THOUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET IN TERMS OF CONVECTION...AS
THE POOL OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...UP SLOPE
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTN AND EVENING. SHOULD ALSO SEE AN EAST CANYON
WIND PICK UP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NEWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED INTO NM FROM THE S AND SE.
INCREASED POPS AREA WIDE...THOUGH GENERALLY STAY A BIT CONSERVATIVE.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...GENERALLY AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE NW BUT STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
PASS MONDAY NIGHT...AND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THIS
SHOULD TEMPORARILY HALT ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM MOVING NORTHWARD.

A WEAK UPPER HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NM FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE AROUND TO
SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. THE 12Z GFS AND LAST NIGHTS ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US NEXT FRIDAY THRU THE
WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING UP ANOTHER BOUT OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FOR NM NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW
THE TROUGH AS FAR SOUTH...THUS NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION
NORTHWARD. STAY TUNED.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL KEEP HIGH HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH WETTING RAIN REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. EASTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF. DRYING VIA A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GAP WIND GUSTS RANGING
FROM 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A MODERATELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR
WEST WILL ENHANCE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AREA WIDE FOR SUNDAY.
GREATEST EMPHASIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL 5 TO 10 DEGREES AREA WIDE BUT REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY. VENTILATION RATES LOOK TO BE
FAIR TO GOOD FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.

MONDAY WILL STILL SEE WETTING RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...LESS WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST. VENTILATION NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
A LOT BETWEEN SUNDAY TO MONDAY WITH BETTER READINGS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I40.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING A DRYING TREND OVER THE
AREA STARTING TUESDAY ALTHOUGH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL
ANTICIPATED MID WEEK AND FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS
EASTWARD. VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SOME TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
BUT NOT FALL OUT OF SIGHT. MODELS COULD IMPROVE THE NUMBERS AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THAT PERIOD.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN A LITTLE DIFFERENT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF IMPACTS. THE GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE TROUGH THUS SOME WIND IMPACTS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. THIS
IMPACTS VENTILATION RATES. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER. LOWER CONFIDENCE
PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

32/50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33











000
FXUS65 KABQ 200143 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
743 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO LOWER PRECIPITATION CHANCES OVERNIGHT. MODELS CONTINUE
TO GENERATE LOTS OF QPF BUT SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY INDICATING
NOT MUCH MORE THAN A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS REMAIN OVER SERN NM.
INTERESTINGLY...A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION OVER THE SOUTHERN
SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS IN COLORADO CONTINUES TO DRIFT SWED TOWARD
THE CHAMA AREA. LEFT IN ISOLATED STORMS THROUGH THE EVENING
ALONG/NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER IN NORTH-CENTRAL NM AS A RESULT.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...536 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD TSTMS CONTG NEAR THE AZ LINE...AND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS ODILE LEFTOVERS MOVE OFF INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE EAST WILL SUPPORT
BROAD AREAS OF EASTERN LOW CIGS AND FOG. SCT CLOUD GROUPS AND VCFG
IN EASTERN TAFS WILL SERVE AS PLACEHOLDERS FOR LOWEST EXPECTED CIG
EXCURSION DURING THE VALID PERIOD. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH 00Z SAT AFTERNOON WILL BACK LOW
LEVEL WINDS TO EASTERLY...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR UP SLOPE SHOWER
ENHANCEMENT AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF SATURDAY.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...308 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. THOUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET...AS MOISTURE
MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RAMP BACK UP AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST AND BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE
DWINDLING...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL AREA WIDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH QPF PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THIS IS
MAINLY BECAUSE ODILE CONTINUES TO STAY SOUTH OF PROJECTED TRACKS.
INTERESTINGLY...MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QPF BULLS-
EYES OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THRU THE OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE LATEST HRRR HAS TAKEN THE OPPOSITE TUNE...WITH ALMOST NO PRECIP
PREDICTED. EXPECT REALITY TO BE CLOSER TO THE DRIER
SCENARIO...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS SHOULD PERCOLATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
PLAINS...MUCH LIKE WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW. HAVE ALSO LEFT IN ISOLATED
THUNDER...BUT NOT CONFIDENT MUCH OF THAT WILL HAPPEN.

AS ODILE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY...ITS
POOL OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF
CALI...AND A WEAK UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER NM. AS A
RESULT...LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY. THOUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET IN TERMS OF CONVECTION...AS
THE POOL OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...UP SLOPE
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTN AND EVENING. SHOULD ALSO SEE AN EAST CANYON
WIND PICK UP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NEWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED INTO NM FROM THE S AND SE.
INCREASED POPS AREA WIDE...THOUGH GENERALLY STAY A BIT CONSERVATIVE.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...GENERALLY AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE NW BUT STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
PASS MONDAY NIGHT...AND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THIS
SHOULD TEMPORARILY HALT ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM MOVING NORTHWARD.

A WEAK UPPER HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NM FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE AROUND TO
SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. THE 12Z GFS AND LAST NIGHTS ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US NEXT FRIDAY THRU THE
WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING UP ANOTHER BOUT OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FOR NM NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW
THE TROUGH AS FAR SOUTH...THUS NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION
NORTHWARD. STAY TUNED.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL KEEP HIGH HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH WETTING RAIN REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. EASTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF. DRYING VIA A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GAP WIND GUSTS RANGING
FROM 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A MODERATELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR
WEST WILL ENHANCE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AREA WIDE FOR SUNDAY.
GREATEST EMPHASIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL 5 TO 10 DEGREES AREA WIDE BUT REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY. VENTILATION RATES LOOK TO BE
FAIR TO GOOD FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.

MONDAY WILL STILL SEE WETTING RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...LESS WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST. VENTILATION NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
A LOT BETWEEN SUNDAY TO MONDAY WITH BETTER READINGS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I40.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING A DRYING TREND OVER THE
AREA STARTING TUESDAY ALTHOUGH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL
ANTICIPATED MID WEEK AND FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS
EASTWARD. VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SOME TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
BUT NOT FALL OUT OF SIGHT. MODELS COULD IMPROVE THE NUMBERS AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THAT PERIOD.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN A LITTLE DIFFERENT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF IMPACTS. THE GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE TROUGH THUS SOME WIND IMPACTS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. THIS
IMPACTS VENTILATION RATES. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER. LOWER CONFIDENCE
PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

32/50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33











000
FXUS65 KABQ 192336 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
536 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD TSTMS CONTG NEAR THE AZ LINE...AND OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF
THE STATE THROUGH THIS EVENING...AS ODILE LEFTOVERS MOVE OFF INTO
THE TX PANHANDLE. PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN THE EAST WILL SUPPORT
BROAD AREAS OF EASTERN LOW CIGS AND FOG. SCT CLOUD GROUPS AND VCFG
IN EASTERN TAFS WILL SERVE AS PLACEHOLDERS FOR LOWEST EXPECTED CIG
EXCURSION DURING THE VALID PERIOD. DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH 00Z SAT AFTERNOON WILL BACK LOW
LEVEL WINDS TO EASTERLY...PROVIDING SUPPORT FOR UP SLOPE SHOWER
ENHANCEMENT AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND MUCH OF SATURDAY.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...308 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. THOUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET...AS MOISTURE
MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RAMP BACK UP AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST AND BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE
DWINDLING...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL AREA WIDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH QPF PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THIS IS
MAINLY BECAUSE ODILE CONTINUES TO STAY SOUTH OF PROJECTED TRACKS.
INTERESTINGLY...MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QPF BULLS-
EYES OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THRU THE OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE LATEST HRRR HAS TAKEN THE OPPOSITE TUNE...WITH ALMOST NO PRECIP
PREDICTED. EXPECT REALITY TO BE CLOSER TO THE DRIER
SCENARIO...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS SHOULD PERCOLATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
PLAINS...MUCH LIKE WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW. HAVE ALSO LEFT IN ISOLATED
THUNDER...BUT NOT CONFIDENT MUCH OF THAT WILL HAPPEN.

AS ODILE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY...ITS
POOL OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF
CALI...AND A WEAK UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER NM. AS A
RESULT...LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY. THOUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET IN TERMS OF CONVECTION...AS
THE POOL OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...UP SLOPE
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTN AND EVENING. SHOULD ALSO SEE AN EAST CANYON
WIND PICK UP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NEWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED INTO NM FROM THE S AND SE.
INCREASED POPS AREA WIDE...THOUGH GENERALLY STAY A BIT CONSERVATIVE.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...GENERALLY AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE NW BUT STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
PASS MONDAY NIGHT...AND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THIS
SHOULD TEMPORARILY HALT ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM MOVING NORTHWARD.

A WEAK UPPER HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NM FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE AROUND TO
SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. THE 12Z GFS AND LAST NIGHTS ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US NEXT FRIDAY THRU THE
WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING UP ANOTHER BOUT OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FOR NM NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW
THE TROUGH AS FAR SOUTH...THUS NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION
NORTHWARD. STAY TUNED.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL KEEP HIGH HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH WETTING RAIN REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. EASTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF. DRYING VIA A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GAP WIND GUSTS RANGING
FROM 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A MODERATELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR
WEST WILL ENHANCE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AREA WIDE FOR SUNDAY.
GREATEST EMPHASIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL 5 TO 10 DEGREES AREA WIDE BUT REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY. VENTILATION RATES LOOK TO BE
FAIR TO GOOD FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.

MONDAY WILL STILL SEE WETTING RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...LESS WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST. VENTILATION NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
A LOT BETWEEN SUNDAY TO MONDAY WITH BETTER READINGS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I40.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING A DRYING TREND OVER THE
AREA STARTING TUESDAY ALTHOUGH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL
ANTICIPATED MID WEEK AND FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS
EASTWARD. VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SOME TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
BUT NOT FALL OUT OF SIGHT. MODELS COULD IMPROVE THE NUMBERS AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THAT PERIOD.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN A LITTLE DIFFERENT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF IMPACTS. THE GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE TROUGH THUS SOME WIND IMPACTS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. THIS
IMPACTS VENTILATION RATES. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER. LOWER CONFIDENCE
PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.

32/50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33







000
FXUS65 KABQ 192108
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
308 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. THOUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET...AS MOISTURE
MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RAMP BACK UP AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST AND BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE
DWINDLING...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL AREAWIDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH QPF PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THIS IS
MAINLY BECAUSE ODILE CONTINUES TO STAY SOUTH OF PROJECTED TRACKS.
INTERESTINGLY...MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QPF BULLS-
EYES OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THRU THE OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE LATEST HRRR HAS TAKEN THE OPPOSITE TUNE...WITH ALMOST NO PRECIP
PREDICTED. EXPECT REALITY TO BE CLOSER TO THE DRIER
SCENARIO...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS SHOULD PERCOLATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
PLAINS...MUCH LIKE WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW. HAVE ALSO LEFT IN ISOLATED
THUNDER...BUT NOT CONFIDENT MUCH OF THAT WILL HAPPEN.

AS ODILE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY...ITS
POOL OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF
CALI...AND A WEAK UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER NM. AS A
RESULT...LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY. THOUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET IN TERMS OF CONVECTION...AS
THE POOL OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTN AND EVENING. SHOULD ALSO SEE AN EAST CANYON
WIND PICK UP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NEWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED INTO NM FROM THE S AND SE.
INCREASED POPS AREAWIDE...THOUGH GENERALLY STAY A BIT CONSERVATIVE.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...GENERALLY AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE NW BUT STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
PASS MONDAY NIGHT...AND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THIS
SHOULD TEMPORARILY HALT ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM MOVING NORTHWARD.

A WEAK UPPER HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NM FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE AROUND TO
SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. THE 12Z GFS AND LAST NIGHTS ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US NEXT FRIDAY THRU THE
WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING UP ANOTHER BOUT OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FOR NM NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW
THE TROUGH AS FAR SOUTH...THUS NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION
NORTHWARD. STAY TUNED.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL KEEP HIGH HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH WETTING RAIN REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. EASTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF. DRYING VIA A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GAP WIND GUSTS RANGING
FROM 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A MODERATELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR
WEST WILL ENHANCE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AREAWIDE FOR SUNDAY.
GREATEST EMPHASIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL 5 TO 10 DEGREES AREA WIDE BUT REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY. VENTILATION RATES LOOK TO BE
FAIR TO GOOD FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.

MONDAY WILL STILL SEE WETTING RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...LESS WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST. VENTILATION NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
A LOT BETWEEN SUNDAY TO MONDAY WITH BETTER READINGS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I40.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING A DRYING TREND OVER THE
AREA STARTING TUESDAY ALTHOUGH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL
ANTICIPATED MID WEEK AND FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS
EASTWARD. VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SOME TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
BUT NOT FALL OUT OF SIGHT. MODELS COULD IMPROVE THE NUMBERS AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THAT PERIOD.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN A LITTLE DIFFERENT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF IMPACTS. THE GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE TROUGH THUS SOME WIND IMPACTS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. THIS
IMPACTS VENTILATION RATES. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER. LOWER CONFIDENCE
PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.


32/50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SH AND VCSH WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FROM REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL
IMPACT TERMINAL SITES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH GREATER IFR CONFIDENCE FOR TCC. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO IMPACT SITES EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY SO THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS IMPACTING CENTRAL
TERMINAL SITES SUCH AS ABQ/SAF. BEST CHANCE OF LOW CIGS IMPACTING
CENTRAL LOCATIONS WOULD BE SAF AND USED SCT025 TO INDICATE THAT
AFTER 8Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  54  88  60  83 /   5   5  20  30
DULCE...........................  45  86  49  80 /  10  10  20  40
CUBA............................  50  84  51  78 /  10  10  20  40
GALLUP..........................  46  84  51  80 /  10  10  20  40
EL MORRO........................  48  78  50  75 /  10  10  20  40
GRANTS..........................  49  82  54  77 /  10  10  20  40
QUEMADO.........................  51  78  53  74 /  10  20  20  50
GLENWOOD........................  54  83  52  82 /  20  30  30  30
CHAMA...........................  40  80  44  74 /  10  10  20  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  81  56  74 /  20  10  20  40
PECOS...........................  50  77  53  69 /  20  10  30  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  46  78  48  75 /  10  10  20  40
RED RIVER.......................  40  71  43  67 /  10  20  30  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  37  75  38  69 /  10  10  30  50
TAOS............................  48  81  50  74 /  10  10  20  30
MORA............................  48  76  50  67 /  20  10  30  50
ESPANOLA........................  56  87  55  80 /  10  10  20  30
SANTA FE........................  53  80  56  75 /  20  10  20  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  54  84  56  77 /  20  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  59  84  61  79 /  20  10  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  62  85  63  80 /  20  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  60  86  60  82 /  20  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  61  85  61  81 /  10  10  20  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  57  86  58  82 /  10  10  20  30
RIO RANCHO......................  60  88  61  82 /  10  10  20  30
SOCORRO.........................  61  86  62  83 /  20  10  30  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  56  80  57  78 /  20  10  20  40
TIJERAS.........................  55  82  58  78 /  20  10  30  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  47  80  49  74 /  20  10  30  50
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  76  54  70 /  20  10  40  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  77  57  70 /  20  20  40  50
CARRIZOZO.......................  60  80  60  73 /  30  20  40  50
RUIDOSO.........................  55  73  53  70 /  40  20  50  60
CAPULIN.........................  53  77  53  71 /  20  10  20  30
RATON...........................  55  82  51  76 /  10  10  20  40
SPRINGER........................  53  83  53  76 /  20  10  30  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  51  78  51  71 /  20  10  40  50
CLAYTON.........................  60  81  58  78 /  20  20  20  30
ROY.............................  57  79  56  74 /  30  10  30  40
CONCHAS.........................  63  80  62  78 /  30  20  40  40
SANTA ROSA......................  63  79  61  74 /  30  20  50  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  63  82  63  80 /  50  30  30  40
CLOVIS..........................  63  76  62  76 /  60  40  40  50
PORTALES........................  63  76  62  77 /  70  40  40  50
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  79  62  74 /  40  30  50  50
ROSWELL.........................  66  79  65  78 /  50  20  50  60
PICACHO.........................  60  76  60  70 /  40  20  50  60
ELK.............................  58  73  57  67 /  40  20  50  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

34







000
FXUS65 KABQ 192108
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
308 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. THOUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET...AS MOISTURE
MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RAMP BACK UP AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST AND BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE
DWINDLING...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL AREAWIDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH QPF PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THIS IS
MAINLY BECAUSE ODILE CONTINUES TO STAY SOUTH OF PROJECTED TRACKS.
INTERESTINGLY...MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QPF BULLS-
EYES OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THRU THE OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE LATEST HRRR HAS TAKEN THE OPPOSITE TUNE...WITH ALMOST NO PRECIP
PREDICTED. EXPECT REALITY TO BE CLOSER TO THE DRIER
SCENARIO...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS SHOULD PERCOLATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
PLAINS...MUCH LIKE WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW. HAVE ALSO LEFT IN ISOLATED
THUNDER...BUT NOT CONFIDENT MUCH OF THAT WILL HAPPEN.

AS ODILE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY...ITS
POOL OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF
CALI...AND A WEAK UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER NM. AS A
RESULT...LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY. THOUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET IN TERMS OF CONVECTION...AS
THE POOL OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTN AND EVENING. SHOULD ALSO SEE AN EAST CANYON
WIND PICK UP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NEWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED INTO NM FROM THE S AND SE.
INCREASED POPS AREAWIDE...THOUGH GENERALLY STAY A BIT CONSERVATIVE.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...GENERALLY AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE NW BUT STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
PASS MONDAY NIGHT...AND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THIS
SHOULD TEMPORARILY HALT ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM MOVING NORTHWARD.

A WEAK UPPER HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NM FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE AROUND TO
SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. THE 12Z GFS AND LAST NIGHTS ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US NEXT FRIDAY THRU THE
WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING UP ANOTHER BOUT OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FOR NM NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW
THE TROUGH AS FAR SOUTH...THUS NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION
NORTHWARD. STAY TUNED.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL KEEP HIGH HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH WETTING RAIN REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. EASTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF. DRYING VIA A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GAP WIND GUSTS RANGING
FROM 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A MODERATELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR
WEST WILL ENHANCE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AREAWIDE FOR SUNDAY.
GREATEST EMPHASIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL 5 TO 10 DEGREES AREA WIDE BUT REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY. VENTILATION RATES LOOK TO BE
FAIR TO GOOD FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.

MONDAY WILL STILL SEE WETTING RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...LESS WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST. VENTILATION NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
A LOT BETWEEN SUNDAY TO MONDAY WITH BETTER READINGS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I40.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING A DRYING TREND OVER THE
AREA STARTING TUESDAY ALTHOUGH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL
ANTICIPATED MID WEEK AND FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS
EASTWARD. VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SOME TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
BUT NOT FALL OUT OF SIGHT. MODELS COULD IMPROVE THE NUMBERS AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THAT PERIOD.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN A LITTLE DIFFERENT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF IMPACTS. THE GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE TROUGH THUS SOME WIND IMPACTS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. THIS
IMPACTS VENTILATION RATES. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER. LOWER CONFIDENCE
PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.


32/50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SH AND VCSH WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FROM REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL
IMPACT TERMINAL SITES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH GREATER IFR CONFIDENCE FOR TCC. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO IMPACT SITES EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY SO THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS IMPACTING CENTRAL
TERMINAL SITES SUCH AS ABQ/SAF. BEST CHANCE OF LOW CIGS IMPACTING
CENTRAL LOCATIONS WOULD BE SAF AND USED SCT025 TO INDICATE THAT
AFTER 8Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  54  88  60  83 /   5   5  20  30
DULCE...........................  45  86  49  80 /  10  10  20  40
CUBA............................  50  84  51  78 /  10  10  20  40
GALLUP..........................  46  84  51  80 /  10  10  20  40
EL MORRO........................  48  78  50  75 /  10  10  20  40
GRANTS..........................  49  82  54  77 /  10  10  20  40
QUEMADO.........................  51  78  53  74 /  10  20  20  50
GLENWOOD........................  54  83  52  82 /  20  30  30  30
CHAMA...........................  40  80  44  74 /  10  10  20  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  81  56  74 /  20  10  20  40
PECOS...........................  50  77  53  69 /  20  10  30  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  46  78  48  75 /  10  10  20  40
RED RIVER.......................  40  71  43  67 /  10  20  30  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  37  75  38  69 /  10  10  30  50
TAOS............................  48  81  50  74 /  10  10  20  30
MORA............................  48  76  50  67 /  20  10  30  50
ESPANOLA........................  56  87  55  80 /  10  10  20  30
SANTA FE........................  53  80  56  75 /  20  10  20  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  54  84  56  77 /  20  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  59  84  61  79 /  20  10  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  62  85  63  80 /  20  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  60  86  60  82 /  20  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  61  85  61  81 /  10  10  20  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  57  86  58  82 /  10  10  20  30
RIO RANCHO......................  60  88  61  82 /  10  10  20  30
SOCORRO.........................  61  86  62  83 /  20  10  30  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  56  80  57  78 /  20  10  20  40
TIJERAS.........................  55  82  58  78 /  20  10  30  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  47  80  49  74 /  20  10  30  50
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  76  54  70 /  20  10  40  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  77  57  70 /  20  20  40  50
CARRIZOZO.......................  60  80  60  73 /  30  20  40  50
RUIDOSO.........................  55  73  53  70 /  40  20  50  60
CAPULIN.........................  53  77  53  71 /  20  10  20  30
RATON...........................  55  82  51  76 /  10  10  20  40
SPRINGER........................  53  83  53  76 /  20  10  30  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  51  78  51  71 /  20  10  40  50
CLAYTON.........................  60  81  58  78 /  20  20  20  30
ROY.............................  57  79  56  74 /  30  10  30  40
CONCHAS.........................  63  80  62  78 /  30  20  40  40
SANTA ROSA......................  63  79  61  74 /  30  20  50  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  63  82  63  80 /  50  30  30  40
CLOVIS..........................  63  76  62  76 /  60  40  40  50
PORTALES........................  63  76  62  77 /  70  40  40  50
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  79  62  74 /  40  30  50  50
ROSWELL.........................  66  79  65  78 /  50  20  50  60
PICACHO.........................  60  76  60  70 /  40  20  50  60
ELK.............................  58  73  57  67 /  40  20  50  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

34







000
FXUS65 KABQ 192108
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
308 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. THOUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET...AS MOISTURE
MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RAMP BACK UP AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST AND BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE
DWINDLING...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL AREAWIDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH QPF PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THIS IS
MAINLY BECAUSE ODILE CONTINUES TO STAY SOUTH OF PROJECTED TRACKS.
INTERESTINGLY...MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QPF BULLS-
EYES OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THRU THE OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE LATEST HRRR HAS TAKEN THE OPPOSITE TUNE...WITH ALMOST NO PRECIP
PREDICTED. EXPECT REALITY TO BE CLOSER TO THE DRIER
SCENARIO...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS SHOULD PERCOLATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
PLAINS...MUCH LIKE WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW. HAVE ALSO LEFT IN ISOLATED
THUNDER...BUT NOT CONFIDENT MUCH OF THAT WILL HAPPEN.

AS ODILE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY...ITS
POOL OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF
CALI...AND A WEAK UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER NM. AS A
RESULT...LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY. THOUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET IN TERMS OF CONVECTION...AS
THE POOL OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTN AND EVENING. SHOULD ALSO SEE AN EAST CANYON
WIND PICK UP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NEWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED INTO NM FROM THE S AND SE.
INCREASED POPS AREAWIDE...THOUGH GENERALLY STAY A BIT CONSERVATIVE.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...GENERALLY AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE NW BUT STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
PASS MONDAY NIGHT...AND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THIS
SHOULD TEMPORARILY HALT ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM MOVING NORTHWARD.

A WEAK UPPER HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NM FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE AROUND TO
SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. THE 12Z GFS AND LAST NIGHTS ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US NEXT FRIDAY THRU THE
WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING UP ANOTHER BOUT OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FOR NM NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW
THE TROUGH AS FAR SOUTH...THUS NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION
NORTHWARD. STAY TUNED.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL KEEP HIGH HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH WETTING RAIN REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. EASTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF. DRYING VIA A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GAP WIND GUSTS RANGING
FROM 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A MODERATELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR
WEST WILL ENHANCE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AREAWIDE FOR SUNDAY.
GREATEST EMPHASIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL 5 TO 10 DEGREES AREA WIDE BUT REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY. VENTILATION RATES LOOK TO BE
FAIR TO GOOD FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.

MONDAY WILL STILL SEE WETTING RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...LESS WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST. VENTILATION NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
A LOT BETWEEN SUNDAY TO MONDAY WITH BETTER READINGS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I40.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING A DRYING TREND OVER THE
AREA STARTING TUESDAY ALTHOUGH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL
ANTICIPATED MID WEEK AND FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS
EASTWARD. VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SOME TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
BUT NOT FALL OUT OF SIGHT. MODELS COULD IMPROVE THE NUMBERS AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THAT PERIOD.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN A LITTLE DIFFERENT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF IMPACTS. THE GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE TROUGH THUS SOME WIND IMPACTS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. THIS
IMPACTS VENTILATION RATES. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER. LOWER CONFIDENCE
PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.


32/50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SH AND VCSH WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FROM REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL
IMPACT TERMINAL SITES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH GREATER IFR CONFIDENCE FOR TCC. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO IMPACT SITES EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY SO THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS IMPACTING CENTRAL
TERMINAL SITES SUCH AS ABQ/SAF. BEST CHANCE OF LOW CIGS IMPACTING
CENTRAL LOCATIONS WOULD BE SAF AND USED SCT025 TO INDICATE THAT
AFTER 8Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  54  88  60  83 /   5   5  20  30
DULCE...........................  45  86  49  80 /  10  10  20  40
CUBA............................  50  84  51  78 /  10  10  20  40
GALLUP..........................  46  84  51  80 /  10  10  20  40
EL MORRO........................  48  78  50  75 /  10  10  20  40
GRANTS..........................  49  82  54  77 /  10  10  20  40
QUEMADO.........................  51  78  53  74 /  10  20  20  50
GLENWOOD........................  54  83  52  82 /  20  30  30  30
CHAMA...........................  40  80  44  74 /  10  10  20  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  81  56  74 /  20  10  20  40
PECOS...........................  50  77  53  69 /  20  10  30  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  46  78  48  75 /  10  10  20  40
RED RIVER.......................  40  71  43  67 /  10  20  30  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  37  75  38  69 /  10  10  30  50
TAOS............................  48  81  50  74 /  10  10  20  30
MORA............................  48  76  50  67 /  20  10  30  50
ESPANOLA........................  56  87  55  80 /  10  10  20  30
SANTA FE........................  53  80  56  75 /  20  10  20  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  54  84  56  77 /  20  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  59  84  61  79 /  20  10  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  62  85  63  80 /  20  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  60  86  60  82 /  20  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  61  85  61  81 /  10  10  20  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  57  86  58  82 /  10  10  20  30
RIO RANCHO......................  60  88  61  82 /  10  10  20  30
SOCORRO.........................  61  86  62  83 /  20  10  30  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  56  80  57  78 /  20  10  20  40
TIJERAS.........................  55  82  58  78 /  20  10  30  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  47  80  49  74 /  20  10  30  50
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  76  54  70 /  20  10  40  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  77  57  70 /  20  20  40  50
CARRIZOZO.......................  60  80  60  73 /  30  20  40  50
RUIDOSO.........................  55  73  53  70 /  40  20  50  60
CAPULIN.........................  53  77  53  71 /  20  10  20  30
RATON...........................  55  82  51  76 /  10  10  20  40
SPRINGER........................  53  83  53  76 /  20  10  30  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  51  78  51  71 /  20  10  40  50
CLAYTON.........................  60  81  58  78 /  20  20  20  30
ROY.............................  57  79  56  74 /  30  10  30  40
CONCHAS.........................  63  80  62  78 /  30  20  40  40
SANTA ROSA......................  63  79  61  74 /  30  20  50  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  63  82  63  80 /  50  30  30  40
CLOVIS..........................  63  76  62  76 /  60  40  40  50
PORTALES........................  63  76  62  77 /  70  40  40  50
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  79  62  74 /  40  30  50  50
ROSWELL.........................  66  79  65  78 /  50  20  50  60
PICACHO.........................  60  76  60  70 /  40  20  50  60
ELK.............................  58  73  57  67 /  40  20  50  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

34







000
FXUS65 KABQ 192108
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
308 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. THOUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE MOSTLY QUIET...AS MOISTURE
MOVES BACK INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AND EAST...SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO RAMP BACK UP AGAIN SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE STATE FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. MEANWHILE...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE WEST AND BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE
EAST. BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...STORM COVERAGE WILL BE
DWINDLING...AND TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF
NORMAL AREAWIDE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW THAT MODELS ARE STRUGGLING
WITH QPF PLACEMENT AND AMOUNTS WITH THE REMNANTS OF ODILE. THIS IS
MAINLY BECAUSE ODILE CONTINUES TO STAY SOUTH OF PROJECTED TRACKS.
INTERESTINGLY...MOST OPERATIONAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW QPF BULLS-
EYES OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS THRU THE OVERNIGHT...BUT
THE LATEST HRRR HAS TAKEN THE OPPOSITE TUNE...WITH ALMOST NO PRECIP
PREDICTED. EXPECT REALITY TO BE CLOSER TO THE DRIER
SCENARIO...THOUGH SOME SHOWERS SHOULD PERCOLATE OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
PLAINS...MUCH LIKE WHAT IS OCCURRING NOW. HAVE ALSO LEFT IN ISOLATED
THUNDER...BUT NOT CONFIDENT MUCH OF THAT WILL HAPPEN.

AS ODILE CONTINUES TO SHIFT EASTWARD AND LOSE ITS IDENTITY...ITS
POOL OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER WEST TEXAS ON SATURDAY.
MEANWHILE...THE NEXT UPPER LOW WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE COAST OF
CALI...AND A WEAK UPPER HIGH WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER NM. AS A
RESULT...LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME EASTERLY. THOUGH THE
DAYTIME HOURS SHOULD BE RELATIVELY QUIET IN TERMS OF CONVECTION...AS
THE POOL OF MOISTURE IS ADVECTED WESTWARD INTO THE PLAINS...UPSLOPE
FLOW SHOULD ALLOW FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS SOME THUNDERSTORMS TO
DEVELOP LATE IN THE AFTN AND EVENING. SHOULD ALSO SEE AN EAST CANYON
WIND PICK UP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

SUNDAY CONTINUES TO TREND TOWARD MORE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION AS
THE UPPER LOW EJECTS NEWD OVER THE GREAT BASIN AND LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO BE ADVECTED INTO NM FROM THE S AND SE.
INCREASED POPS AREAWIDE...THOUGH GENERALLY STAY A BIT CONSERVATIVE.

WESTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ON MONDAY...GENERALLY AT THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH/LOW MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN ROCKIES. DRIER AIR WILL
START TO MOVE INTO THE NW BUT STILL A FAIR AMOUNT OF SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. THE TROUGH AXIS WILL
PASS MONDAY NIGHT...AND FLOW WILL BECOME MORE NORTHWESTERLY. THIS
SHOULD TEMPORARILY HALT ANY MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM MOVING NORTHWARD.

A WEAK UPPER HIGH WILL DEVELOP OVER NM FOR THE MIDDLE TO LATTER HALF
OF THE WORK WEEK...THOUGH ENOUGH MOISTURE SHOULD BE AROUND TO
SUPPORT A FEW STORMS. THE 12Z GFS AND LAST NIGHTS ECMWF BOTH SHOW A
LARGE TROUGH MOVING INTO THE WESTERN US NEXT FRIDAY THRU THE
WEEKEND. THIS SCENARIO WOULD BRING UP ANOTHER BOUT OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FOR NM NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE 12Z ECMWF DOES NOT SHOW
THE TROUGH AS FAR SOUTH...THUS NOT AS MUCH MOISTURE ADVECTION
NORTHWARD. STAY TUNED.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL KEEP HIGH HUMIDITY AND SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH WETTING RAIN REST OF THE AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT FOR AREAS EAST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. EASTERLY FLOW WILL RETURN ACROSS
THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY INCREASING LOW LEVEL RH ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST HALF. DRYING VIA A MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION EXPECTED
ELSEWHERE...ESPECIALLY WESTERN AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING
RAIN WOULD BE FOUND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. GAP WIND GUSTS RANGING
FROM 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE EXPECTED ALONG THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
SATURDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND A MODERATELY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR
WEST WILL ENHANCE WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL AREAWIDE FOR SUNDAY.
GREATEST EMPHASIS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST AREAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL 5 TO 10 DEGREES AREA WIDE BUT REMAIN NEAR
NORMAL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. EASTERLY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY. VENTILATION RATES LOOK TO BE
FAIR TO GOOD FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR.

MONDAY WILL STILL SEE WETTING RAIN CHANCES AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST...LESS WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL WITH NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST. VENTILATION NOT EXPECTED TO CHANGE
A LOT BETWEEN SUNDAY TO MONDAY WITH BETTER READINGS ALONG AND NORTH
OF I40.

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT WITH DEVELOPING A DRYING TREND OVER THE
AREA STARTING TUESDAY ALTHOUGH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL
ANTICIPATED MID WEEK AND FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS
EASTWARD. VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER SOME TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY
BUT NOT FALL OUT OF SIGHT. MODELS COULD IMPROVE THE NUMBERS AS WE
GET CLOSER TO THAT PERIOD.

THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH STILL ON TAP FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE FOLLOWING
WEEKEND. MODELS REMAIN A LITTLE DIFFERENT IN TERMS OF TIMING AND
STRENGTH OF IMPACTS. THE GFS IS MUCH DEEPER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE
WITH THE TROUGH THUS SOME WIND IMPACTS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF IT. THIS
IMPACTS VENTILATION RATES. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER. LOWER CONFIDENCE
PERIOD FOR LATE WEEK INTO NEXT WEEK AT THIS TIME.


32/50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SH AND VCSH WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FROM REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL
IMPACT TERMINAL SITES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH GREATER IFR CONFIDENCE FOR TCC. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO IMPACT SITES EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY SO THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS IMPACTING CENTRAL
TERMINAL SITES SUCH AS ABQ/SAF. BEST CHANCE OF LOW CIGS IMPACTING
CENTRAL LOCATIONS WOULD BE SAF AND USED SCT025 TO INDICATE THAT
AFTER 8Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  54  88  60  83 /   5   5  20  30
DULCE...........................  45  86  49  80 /  10  10  20  40
CUBA............................  50  84  51  78 /  10  10  20  40
GALLUP..........................  46  84  51  80 /  10  10  20  40
EL MORRO........................  48  78  50  75 /  10  10  20  40
GRANTS..........................  49  82  54  77 /  10  10  20  40
QUEMADO.........................  51  78  53  74 /  10  20  20  50
GLENWOOD........................  54  83  52  82 /  20  30  30  30
CHAMA...........................  40  80  44  74 /  10  10  20  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  81  56  74 /  20  10  20  40
PECOS...........................  50  77  53  69 /  20  10  30  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  46  78  48  75 /  10  10  20  40
RED RIVER.......................  40  71  43  67 /  10  20  30  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  37  75  38  69 /  10  10  30  50
TAOS............................  48  81  50  74 /  10  10  20  30
MORA............................  48  76  50  67 /  20  10  30  50
ESPANOLA........................  56  87  55  80 /  10  10  20  30
SANTA FE........................  53  80  56  75 /  20  10  20  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  54  84  56  77 /  20  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  59  84  61  79 /  20  10  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  62  85  63  80 /  20  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  60  86  60  82 /  20  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  61  85  61  81 /  10  10  20  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  57  86  58  82 /  10  10  20  30
RIO RANCHO......................  60  88  61  82 /  10  10  20  30
SOCORRO.........................  61  86  62  83 /  20  10  30  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  56  80  57  78 /  20  10  20  40
TIJERAS.........................  55  82  58  78 /  20  10  30  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  47  80  49  74 /  20  10  30  50
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  76  54  70 /  20  10  40  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  77  57  70 /  20  20  40  50
CARRIZOZO.......................  60  80  60  73 /  30  20  40  50
RUIDOSO.........................  55  73  53  70 /  40  20  50  60
CAPULIN.........................  53  77  53  71 /  20  10  20  30
RATON...........................  55  82  51  76 /  10  10  20  40
SPRINGER........................  53  83  53  76 /  20  10  30  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  51  78  51  71 /  20  10  40  50
CLAYTON.........................  60  81  58  78 /  20  20  20  30
ROY.............................  57  79  56  74 /  30  10  30  40
CONCHAS.........................  63  80  62  78 /  30  20  40  40
SANTA ROSA......................  63  79  61  74 /  30  20  50  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  63  82  63  80 /  50  30  30  40
CLOVIS..........................  63  76  62  76 /  60  40  40  50
PORTALES........................  63  76  62  77 /  70  40  40  50
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  79  62  74 /  40  30  50  50
ROSWELL.........................  66  79  65  78 /  50  20  50  60
PICACHO.........................  60  76  60  70 /  40  20  50  60
ELK.............................  58  73  57  67 /  40  20  50  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

34







000
FXUS65 KABQ 191811 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1211 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SH AND VCSH WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FROM REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL
IMPACT TERMINAL SITES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH GREATER IFR CONFIDENCE FOR TCC. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO IMPACT SITES EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY SO THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS IMPACTING CENTRAL
TERMINAL SITES SUCH AS ABQ/SAF. BEST CHANCE OF LOW CIGS IMPACTING
CENTRAL LOCATIONS WOULD BE SAF AND USED SCT025 TO INDICATE THAT
AFTER 8Z.

&&

32

.PREV DISCUSSION...1049 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AND SPREAD
THE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EAST BACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN. MODELS ARE
STILL OUT TO LUNCH WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT...AND THE HRRR
SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY ONE WITH SOME SENSE OF REALITY. LARGELY LOOKS
LIKE THE NE WILL MISS OUT ON RAIN...THOUGH WILL GET SOME CLOUD
COVER...SO HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. TCC IS ALREADY
ONLY 1 DEGREE SHY OF PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HIGH...BUT WITH THICKER
CLOUD COVER APPROACHING...DID NOT WANT TO INCREASE THE HIGH TEMP
TOO MUCH. WILL MONITOR. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

34


.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
TODAY AS THE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE ODILE SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FEW SPOTS COULD ACCUMULATE OVER 1 INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPOTTIER TODAY.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY KEEPING MOISTURE
IN THE AREA AND LEADING TO A DAY OF COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SLOWLY NORTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY DRAWING MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF
MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN MOST
PLACES. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EXIT THE ROCKIES ONTO THE UPPER
GREAT PLAINS...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND IN EARNEST
STARTING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TRYING TO PAINT ABUNDANT QPF OVER EASTERN NM FOR
TODAY...SOME MORE THAN OTHERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOWS DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT PUSH IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
OUR EASTERN PLAINS. SO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SIDED WITH THE DRIER
GFS AND PURPOSEFULLY REDUCED POPS BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AREAWIDE. NONETHELESS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THOUGH MODELS TRY TO LINGER
SOME OF ODILES MOISTURE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
TONIGHT...MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE
WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY THEN.

WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE A PRONOUNCED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE A GENERAL EASTERLY TRANSITION IN WIND
DIRECTION AREAWIDE DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE WEST COAST. THIS MAKES SATURDAYS
POP FORECAST A BIT TRICKY...BECAUSE THERE NO LONGER LOOKS TO BE A
PRONOUNCED AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF BOTH
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT MODELS STILL LIKE THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. MAYBE BECAUSE OF THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE COMING IN FROM
THAT DIRECTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRAWS DEEPER MONSOON
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...THE BEST PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
MAKE PROGRESS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY...PROBABLY WITH
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS/TRIGGER FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD. IF THIS FRONT IS SLOW ENOUGH...IT COULD CAUSE A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THIS OUTCOME WILL NECESSITATE AN INCREASE IN CENTRAL
VALLEY POPS BY LATER SHIFTS IF WE CAN GAIN SOME CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION.

WITH MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO AND NM UNDER
NW FLOW ALOFT...THE AREA WILL BE CUT OFF FROM MONSOON MOISTURE
WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WHICH IS KEEPING REMNANTS OF ODILE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THAN EXPECTED. MODELS STILL DEPICT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AN AREA THAT WILL SEE POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NW...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NM...AND
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

DESPITE ODILE EXITING THE AREA...WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN
CA LATE FRIDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER NM. THE LOW
WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW PROGRESSION ROUNDING THE HIGH...MOVING
TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS BY
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY
WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND GUSTY UPSLOPE WINDS...WITH
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THESE FACTORS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP FOR MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. THE
WARMING EXPECTED SATURDAY WILL BE COUNTERED WITH SIMILAR COOLING
SUNDAY...FLUCTUATING FROM NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY TO NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE BETTER TRANSPORT WINDS...CAUSING VENTILATION RATES TO
BECOME GOOD BOTH DAYS FOR MOST AREAS.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK
AS MODELS HONE IN ON A WEAK DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. WHILE MODELS HINT AT MOISTURE WORKING IN UNDERNEATH
THE REDEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE STATE...OVERALL STORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN RECENT DAYS. THE BIGGEST ISSUE
WILL BE LACK OF TRANSPORT WINDS CAUSING VENT RATES TO TREND DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY TO FAIR AND POOR VALUES. BEYOND THAT...MODELS SEEM TO
AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FEATURE WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
AT SOME POINT. REMAINS TOO EARLY YET TO KNOW POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM.AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WHICH IS KEEPING REMNANTS OF ODILE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THAN EXPECTED. MODELS STILL DEPICT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AN AREA THAT WILL SEE POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NW...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NM...AND
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 191811 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1211 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SH AND VCSH WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FROM REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL
IMPACT TERMINAL SITES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH GREATER IFR CONFIDENCE FOR TCC. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO IMPACT SITES EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY SO THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS IMPACTING CENTRAL
TERMINAL SITES SUCH AS ABQ/SAF. BEST CHANCE OF LOW CIGS IMPACTING
CENTRAL LOCATIONS WOULD BE SAF AND USED SCT025 TO INDICATE THAT
AFTER 8Z.

&&

32

.PREV DISCUSSION...1049 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AND SPREAD
THE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EAST BACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN. MODELS ARE
STILL OUT TO LUNCH WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT...AND THE HRRR
SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY ONE WITH SOME SENSE OF REALITY. LARGELY LOOKS
LIKE THE NE WILL MISS OUT ON RAIN...THOUGH WILL GET SOME CLOUD
COVER...SO HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. TCC IS ALREADY
ONLY 1 DEGREE SHY OF PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HIGH...BUT WITH THICKER
CLOUD COVER APPROACHING...DID NOT WANT TO INCREASE THE HIGH TEMP
TOO MUCH. WILL MONITOR. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

34


.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
TODAY AS THE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE ODILE SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FEW SPOTS COULD ACCUMULATE OVER 1 INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPOTTIER TODAY.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY KEEPING MOISTURE
IN THE AREA AND LEADING TO A DAY OF COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SLOWLY NORTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY DRAWING MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF
MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN MOST
PLACES. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EXIT THE ROCKIES ONTO THE UPPER
GREAT PLAINS...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND IN EARNEST
STARTING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TRYING TO PAINT ABUNDANT QPF OVER EASTERN NM FOR
TODAY...SOME MORE THAN OTHERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOWS DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT PUSH IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
OUR EASTERN PLAINS. SO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SIDED WITH THE DRIER
GFS AND PURPOSEFULLY REDUCED POPS BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AREAWIDE. NONETHELESS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THOUGH MODELS TRY TO LINGER
SOME OF ODILES MOISTURE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
TONIGHT...MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE
WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY THEN.

WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE A PRONOUNCED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE A GENERAL EASTERLY TRANSITION IN WIND
DIRECTION AREAWIDE DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE WEST COAST. THIS MAKES SATURDAYS
POP FORECAST A BIT TRICKY...BECAUSE THERE NO LONGER LOOKS TO BE A
PRONOUNCED AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF BOTH
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT MODELS STILL LIKE THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. MAYBE BECAUSE OF THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE COMING IN FROM
THAT DIRECTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRAWS DEEPER MONSOON
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...THE BEST PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
MAKE PROGRESS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY...PROBABLY WITH
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS/TRIGGER FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD. IF THIS FRONT IS SLOW ENOUGH...IT COULD CAUSE A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THIS OUTCOME WILL NECESSITATE AN INCREASE IN CENTRAL
VALLEY POPS BY LATER SHIFTS IF WE CAN GAIN SOME CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION.

WITH MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO AND NM UNDER
NW FLOW ALOFT...THE AREA WILL BE CUT OFF FROM MONSOON MOISTURE
WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WHICH IS KEEPING REMNANTS OF ODILE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THAN EXPECTED. MODELS STILL DEPICT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AN AREA THAT WILL SEE POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NW...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NM...AND
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

DESPITE ODILE EXITING THE AREA...WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN
CA LATE FRIDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER NM. THE LOW
WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW PROGRESSION ROUNDING THE HIGH...MOVING
TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS BY
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY
WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND GUSTY UPSLOPE WINDS...WITH
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THESE FACTORS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP FOR MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. THE
WARMING EXPECTED SATURDAY WILL BE COUNTERED WITH SIMILAR COOLING
SUNDAY...FLUCTUATING FROM NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY TO NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE BETTER TRANSPORT WINDS...CAUSING VENTILATION RATES TO
BECOME GOOD BOTH DAYS FOR MOST AREAS.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK
AS MODELS HONE IN ON A WEAK DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. WHILE MODELS HINT AT MOISTURE WORKING IN UNDERNEATH
THE REDEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE STATE...OVERALL STORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN RECENT DAYS. THE BIGGEST ISSUE
WILL BE LACK OF TRANSPORT WINDS CAUSING VENT RATES TO TREND DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY TO FAIR AND POOR VALUES. BEYOND THAT...MODELS SEEM TO
AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FEATURE WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
AT SOME POINT. REMAINS TOO EARLY YET TO KNOW POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM.AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WHICH IS KEEPING REMNANTS OF ODILE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THAN EXPECTED. MODELS STILL DEPICT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AN AREA THAT WILL SEE POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NW...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NM...AND
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 191811 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1211 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SH AND VCSH WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FROM REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL
IMPACT TERMINAL SITES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH GREATER IFR CONFIDENCE FOR TCC. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO IMPACT SITES EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY SO THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS IMPACTING CENTRAL
TERMINAL SITES SUCH AS ABQ/SAF. BEST CHANCE OF LOW CIGS IMPACTING
CENTRAL LOCATIONS WOULD BE SAF AND USED SCT025 TO INDICATE THAT
AFTER 8Z.

&&

32

.PREV DISCUSSION...1049 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AND SPREAD
THE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EAST BACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN. MODELS ARE
STILL OUT TO LUNCH WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT...AND THE HRRR
SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY ONE WITH SOME SENSE OF REALITY. LARGELY LOOKS
LIKE THE NE WILL MISS OUT ON RAIN...THOUGH WILL GET SOME CLOUD
COVER...SO HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. TCC IS ALREADY
ONLY 1 DEGREE SHY OF PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HIGH...BUT WITH THICKER
CLOUD COVER APPROACHING...DID NOT WANT TO INCREASE THE HIGH TEMP
TOO MUCH. WILL MONITOR. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

34


.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
TODAY AS THE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE ODILE SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FEW SPOTS COULD ACCUMULATE OVER 1 INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPOTTIER TODAY.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY KEEPING MOISTURE
IN THE AREA AND LEADING TO A DAY OF COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SLOWLY NORTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY DRAWING MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF
MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN MOST
PLACES. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EXIT THE ROCKIES ONTO THE UPPER
GREAT PLAINS...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND IN EARNEST
STARTING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TRYING TO PAINT ABUNDANT QPF OVER EASTERN NM FOR
TODAY...SOME MORE THAN OTHERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOWS DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT PUSH IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
OUR EASTERN PLAINS. SO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SIDED WITH THE DRIER
GFS AND PURPOSEFULLY REDUCED POPS BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AREAWIDE. NONETHELESS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THOUGH MODELS TRY TO LINGER
SOME OF ODILES MOISTURE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
TONIGHT...MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE
WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY THEN.

WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE A PRONOUNCED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE A GENERAL EASTERLY TRANSITION IN WIND
DIRECTION AREAWIDE DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE WEST COAST. THIS MAKES SATURDAYS
POP FORECAST A BIT TRICKY...BECAUSE THERE NO LONGER LOOKS TO BE A
PRONOUNCED AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF BOTH
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT MODELS STILL LIKE THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. MAYBE BECAUSE OF THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE COMING IN FROM
THAT DIRECTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRAWS DEEPER MONSOON
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...THE BEST PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
MAKE PROGRESS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY...PROBABLY WITH
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS/TRIGGER FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD. IF THIS FRONT IS SLOW ENOUGH...IT COULD CAUSE A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THIS OUTCOME WILL NECESSITATE AN INCREASE IN CENTRAL
VALLEY POPS BY LATER SHIFTS IF WE CAN GAIN SOME CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION.

WITH MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO AND NM UNDER
NW FLOW ALOFT...THE AREA WILL BE CUT OFF FROM MONSOON MOISTURE
WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WHICH IS KEEPING REMNANTS OF ODILE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THAN EXPECTED. MODELS STILL DEPICT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AN AREA THAT WILL SEE POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NW...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NM...AND
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

DESPITE ODILE EXITING THE AREA...WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN
CA LATE FRIDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER NM. THE LOW
WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW PROGRESSION ROUNDING THE HIGH...MOVING
TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS BY
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY
WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND GUSTY UPSLOPE WINDS...WITH
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THESE FACTORS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP FOR MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. THE
WARMING EXPECTED SATURDAY WILL BE COUNTERED WITH SIMILAR COOLING
SUNDAY...FLUCTUATING FROM NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY TO NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE BETTER TRANSPORT WINDS...CAUSING VENTILATION RATES TO
BECOME GOOD BOTH DAYS FOR MOST AREAS.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK
AS MODELS HONE IN ON A WEAK DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. WHILE MODELS HINT AT MOISTURE WORKING IN UNDERNEATH
THE REDEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE STATE...OVERALL STORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN RECENT DAYS. THE BIGGEST ISSUE
WILL BE LACK OF TRANSPORT WINDS CAUSING VENT RATES TO TREND DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY TO FAIR AND POOR VALUES. BEYOND THAT...MODELS SEEM TO
AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FEATURE WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
AT SOME POINT. REMAINS TOO EARLY YET TO KNOW POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM.AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WHICH IS KEEPING REMNANTS OF ODILE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THAN EXPECTED. MODELS STILL DEPICT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AN AREA THAT WILL SEE POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NW...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NM...AND
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 191811 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1211 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SH AND VCSH WITH MVFR CONDITIONS FROM REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL
IMPACT TERMINAL SITES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH GREATER IFR CONFIDENCE FOR TCC. AREAS OF PATCHY FOG
AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO IMPACT SITES EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN. WINDS WILL SHIFT EASTERLY OVERNIGHT INTO
SATURDAY SO THERE IS A CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS IMPACTING CENTRAL
TERMINAL SITES SUCH AS ABQ/SAF. BEST CHANCE OF LOW CIGS IMPACTING
CENTRAL LOCATIONS WOULD BE SAF AND USED SCT025 TO INDICATE THAT
AFTER 8Z.

&&

32

.PREV DISCUSSION...1049 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AND SPREAD
THE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EAST BACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN. MODELS ARE
STILL OUT TO LUNCH WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT...AND THE HRRR
SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY ONE WITH SOME SENSE OF REALITY. LARGELY LOOKS
LIKE THE NE WILL MISS OUT ON RAIN...THOUGH WILL GET SOME CLOUD
COVER...SO HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. TCC IS ALREADY
ONLY 1 DEGREE SHY OF PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HIGH...BUT WITH THICKER
CLOUD COVER APPROACHING...DID NOT WANT TO INCREASE THE HIGH TEMP
TOO MUCH. WILL MONITOR. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

34


.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
TODAY AS THE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE ODILE SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FEW SPOTS COULD ACCUMULATE OVER 1 INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPOTTIER TODAY.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY KEEPING MOISTURE
IN THE AREA AND LEADING TO A DAY OF COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SLOWLY NORTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY DRAWING MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF
MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN MOST
PLACES. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EXIT THE ROCKIES ONTO THE UPPER
GREAT PLAINS...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND IN EARNEST
STARTING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TRYING TO PAINT ABUNDANT QPF OVER EASTERN NM FOR
TODAY...SOME MORE THAN OTHERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOWS DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT PUSH IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
OUR EASTERN PLAINS. SO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SIDED WITH THE DRIER
GFS AND PURPOSEFULLY REDUCED POPS BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AREAWIDE. NONETHELESS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THOUGH MODELS TRY TO LINGER
SOME OF ODILES MOISTURE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
TONIGHT...MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE
WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY THEN.

WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE A PRONOUNCED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE A GENERAL EASTERLY TRANSITION IN WIND
DIRECTION AREAWIDE DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE WEST COAST. THIS MAKES SATURDAYS
POP FORECAST A BIT TRICKY...BECAUSE THERE NO LONGER LOOKS TO BE A
PRONOUNCED AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF BOTH
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT MODELS STILL LIKE THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. MAYBE BECAUSE OF THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE COMING IN FROM
THAT DIRECTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRAWS DEEPER MONSOON
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...THE BEST PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
MAKE PROGRESS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY...PROBABLY WITH
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS/TRIGGER FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD. IF THIS FRONT IS SLOW ENOUGH...IT COULD CAUSE A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THIS OUTCOME WILL NECESSITATE AN INCREASE IN CENTRAL
VALLEY POPS BY LATER SHIFTS IF WE CAN GAIN SOME CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION.

WITH MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO AND NM UNDER
NW FLOW ALOFT...THE AREA WILL BE CUT OFF FROM MONSOON MOISTURE
WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WHICH IS KEEPING REMNANTS OF ODILE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THAN EXPECTED. MODELS STILL DEPICT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AN AREA THAT WILL SEE POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NW...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NM...AND
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

DESPITE ODILE EXITING THE AREA...WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN
CA LATE FRIDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER NM. THE LOW
WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW PROGRESSION ROUNDING THE HIGH...MOVING
TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS BY
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY
WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND GUSTY UPSLOPE WINDS...WITH
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THESE FACTORS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP FOR MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. THE
WARMING EXPECTED SATURDAY WILL BE COUNTERED WITH SIMILAR COOLING
SUNDAY...FLUCTUATING FROM NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY TO NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE BETTER TRANSPORT WINDS...CAUSING VENTILATION RATES TO
BECOME GOOD BOTH DAYS FOR MOST AREAS.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK
AS MODELS HONE IN ON A WEAK DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. WHILE MODELS HINT AT MOISTURE WORKING IN UNDERNEATH
THE REDEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE STATE...OVERALL STORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN RECENT DAYS. THE BIGGEST ISSUE
WILL BE LACK OF TRANSPORT WINDS CAUSING VENT RATES TO TREND DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY TO FAIR AND POOR VALUES. BEYOND THAT...MODELS SEEM TO
AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FEATURE WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
AT SOME POINT. REMAINS TOO EARLY YET TO KNOW POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM.AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WHICH IS KEEPING REMNANTS OF ODILE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THAN EXPECTED. MODELS STILL DEPICT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AN AREA THAT WILL SEE POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NW...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NM...AND
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 191649 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1049 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS THIS MORNING ACROSS THE WEST AND SPREAD
THE LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE EAST BACK TOWARD THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
WHERE IT IS CURRENTLY RAINING FOR THE REST OF THE AFTN. MODELS ARE
STILL OUT TO LUNCH WITH QPF AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT...AND THE HRRR
SEEMS TO BE THE ONLY ONE WITH SOME SENSE OF REALITY. LARGELY LOOKS
LIKE THE NE WILL MISS OUT ON RAIN...THOUGH WILL GET SOME CLOUD
COVER...SO HAVE INCREASED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO. TCC IS ALREADY
ONLY 1 DEGREE SHY OF PREVIOUSLY FORECAST HIGH...BUT WITH THICKER
CLOUD COVER APPROACHING...DID NOT WANT TO INCREASE THE HIGH TEMP
TOO MUCH. WILL MONITOR. UPDATES OUT SHORTLY.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...530 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG WILL IMPACT SITES ALONG AND EAST OF CENTRAL MTS...BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL REDUCTION IN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA WILL SLOWLY MOVE ENE THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER IT WILL REACH KTCC. REDUCED
VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY SHRA THAT REACHES TERMINAL SITE. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS/CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH GRADUAL REDUCTION IN
CLOUD COVERAGE.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
TODAY AS THE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE ODILE SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FEW SPOTS COULD ACCUMULATE OVER 1 INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPOTTIER TODAY.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY KEEPING MOISTURE
IN THE AREA AND LEADING TO A DAY OF COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SLOWLY NORTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY DRAWING MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF
MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN MOST
PLACES. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EXIT THE ROCKIES ONTO THE UPPER
GREAT PLAINS...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND IN EARNEST
STARTING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TRYING TO PAINT ABUNDANT QPF OVER EASTERN NM FOR
TODAY...SOME MORE THAN OTHERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOWS DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT PUSH IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
OUR EASTERN PLAINS. SO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SIDED WITH THE DRIER
GFS AND PURPOSEFULLY REDUCED POPS BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AREAWIDE. NONETHELESS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THOUGH MODELS TRY TO LINGER
SOME OF ODILES MOISTURE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
TONIGHT...MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE
WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY THEN.

WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE A PRONOUNCED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE A GENERAL EASTERLY TRANSITION IN WIND
DIRECTION AREAWIDE DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE WEST COAST. THIS MAKES SATURDAYS
POP FORECAST A BIT TRICKY...BECAUSE THERE NO LONGER LOOKS TO BE A
PRONOUNCED AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF BOTH
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT MODELS STILL LIKE THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. MAYBE BECAUSE OF THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE COMING IN FROM
THAT DIRECTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRAWS DEEPER MONSOON
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...THE BEST PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
MAKE PROGRESS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY...PROBABLY WITH
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS/TRIGGER FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD. IF THIS FRONT IS SLOW ENOUGH...IT COULD CAUSE A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THIS OUTCOME WILL NECESSITATE AN INCREASE IN CENTRAL
VALLEY POPS BY LATER SHIFTS IF WE CAN GAIN SOME CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION.

WITH MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO AND NM UNDER
NW FLOW ALOFT...THE AREA WILL BE CUT OFF FROM MONSOON MOISTURE
WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WHICH IS KEEPING REMNANTS OF ODILE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THAN EXPECTED. MODELS STILL DEPICT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AN AREA THAT WILL SEE POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NW...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NM...AND
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

DESPITE ODILE EXITING THE AREA...WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN
CA LATE FRIDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER NM. THE LOW
WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW PROGRESSION ROUNDING THE HIGH...MOVING
TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS BY
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY
WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND GUSTY UPSLOPE WINDS...WITH
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THESE FACTORS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP FOR MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. THE
WARMING EXPECTED SATURDAY WILL BE COUNTERED WITH SIMILAR COOLING
SUNDAY...FLUCTUATING FROM NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY TO NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE BETTER TRANSPORT WINDS...CAUSING VENTILATION RATES TO
BECOME GOOD BOTH DAYS FOR MOST AREAS.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK
AS MODELS HONE IN ON A WEAK DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. WHILE MODELS HINT AT MOISTURE WORKING IN UNDERNEATH
THE REDEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE STATE...OVERALL STORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN RECENT DAYS. THE BIGGEST ISSUE
WILL BE LACK OF TRANSPORT WINDS CAUSING VENT RATES TO TREND DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY TO FAIR AND POOR VALUES. BEYOND THAT...MODELS SEEM TO
AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FEATURE WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
AT SOME POINT. REMAINS TOO EARLY YET TO KNOW POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM.AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WHICH IS KEEPING REMNANTS OF ODILE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THAN EXPECTED. MODELS STILL DEPICT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AN AREA THAT WILL SEE POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NW...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NM...AND
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

34









000
FXUS65 KABQ 191130 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
530 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG WILL IMPACT SITES ALONG AND EAST OF CENTRAL MTS...BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL REDUCTION IN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA WILL SLOWLY MOVE ENE THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER IT WILL REACH KTCC. REDUCED
VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY SHRA THAT REACHES TERMINAL SITE. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS/CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH GRADUAL REDUCTION IN
CLOUD COVERAGE.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
TODAY AS THE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE ODILE SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FEW SPOTS COULD ACCUMULATE OVER 1 INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPOTTIER TODAY.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY KEEPING MOISTURE
IN THE AREA AND LEADING TO A DAY OF COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SLOWLY NORTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY DRAWING MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF
MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN MOST
PLACES. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EXIT THE ROCKIES ONTO THE UPPER
GREAT PLAINS...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND IN EARNEST
STARTING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TRYING TO PAINT ABUNDANT QPF OVER EASTERN NM FOR
TODAY...SOME MORE THAN OTHERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOWS DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT PUSH IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
OUR EASTERN PLAINS. SO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SIDED WITH THE DRIER
GFS AND PURPOSEFULLY REDUCED POPS BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AREAWIDE. NONETHELESS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THOUGH MODELS TRY TO LINGER
SOME OF ODILES MOISTURE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
TONIGHT...MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE
WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY THEN.

WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE A PRONOUNCED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE A GENERAL EASTERLY TRANSITION IN WIND
DIRECTION AREAWIDE DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE WEST COAST. THIS MAKES SATURDAYS
POP FORECAST A BIT TRICKY...BECAUSE THERE NO LONGER LOOKS TO BE A
PRONOUNCED AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF BOTH
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT MODELS STILL LIKE THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. MAYBE BECAUSE OF THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE COMING IN FROM
THAT DIRECTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRAWS DEEPER MONSOON
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...THE BEST PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
MAKE PROGRESS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY...PROBABLY WITH
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS/TRIGGER FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD. IF THIS FRONT IS SLOW ENOUGH...IT COULD CAUSE A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THIS OUTCOME WILL NECESSITATE AN INCREASE IN CENTRAL
VALLEY POPS BY LATER SHIFTS IF WE CAN GAIN SOME CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION.

WITH MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO AND NM UNDER
NW FLOW ALOFT...THE AREA WILL BE CUT OFF FROM MONSOON MOISTURE
WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WHICH IS KEEPING REMNANTS OF ODILE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THAN EXPECTED. MODELS STILL DEPICT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AN AREA THAT WILL SEE POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NW...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NM...AND
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

DESPITE ODILE EXITING THE AREA...WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN
CA LATE FRIDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER NM. THE LOW
WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW PROGRESSION ROUNDING THE HIGH...MOVING
TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS BY
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY
WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND GUSTY UPSLOPE WINDS...WITH
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THESE FACTORS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP FOR MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. THE
WARMING EXPECTED SATURDAY WILL BE COUNTERED WITH SIMILAR COOLING
SUNDAY...FLUCTUATING FROM NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY TO NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE BETTER TRANSPORT WINDS...CAUSING VENTILATION RATES TO
BECOME GOOD BOTH DAYS FOR MOST AREAS.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK
AS MODELS HONE IN ON A WEAK DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. WHILE MODELS HINT AT MOISTURE WORKING IN UNDERNEATH
THE REDEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE STATE...OVERALL STORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN RECENT DAYS. THE BIGGEST ISSUE
WILL BE LACK OF TRANSPORT WINDS CAUSING VENT RATES TO TREND DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY TO FAIR AND POOR VALUES. BEYOND THAT...MODELS SEEM TO
AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FEATURE WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
AT SOME POINT. REMAINS TOO EARLY YET TO KNOW POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM.AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WHICH IS KEEPING REMNANTS OF ODILE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THAN EXPECTED. MODELS STILL DEPICT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AN AREA THAT WILL SEE POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NW...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NM...AND
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 191130 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
530 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS WITH MTN OBSCURATIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT MUCH OF EASTERN NM THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. AREAS OF
PATCHY FOG WILL IMPACT SITES ALONG AND EAST OF CENTRAL MTS...BUT
NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR ANY ADDITIONAL REDUCTION IN FLIGHT
CATEGORIES. LIGHT TO MODERATE SHRA WILL SLOWLY MOVE ENE THROUGH
THE DAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW WHETHER IT WILL REACH KTCC. REDUCED
VSBYS WILL ACCOMPANY ANY SHRA THAT REACHES TERMINAL SITE. SOME
IMPROVEMENT IN VSBYS/CIGS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EAST THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT COULD REDEVELOP AGAIN DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST WITH GRADUAL REDUCTION IN
CLOUD COVERAGE.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
TODAY AS THE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE ODILE SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FEW SPOTS COULD ACCUMULATE OVER 1 INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPOTTIER TODAY.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY KEEPING MOISTURE
IN THE AREA AND LEADING TO A DAY OF COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SLOWLY NORTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY DRAWING MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF
MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN MOST
PLACES. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EXIT THE ROCKIES ONTO THE UPPER
GREAT PLAINS...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND IN EARNEST
STARTING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TRYING TO PAINT ABUNDANT QPF OVER EASTERN NM FOR
TODAY...SOME MORE THAN OTHERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOWS DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT PUSH IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
OUR EASTERN PLAINS. SO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SIDED WITH THE DRIER
GFS AND PURPOSEFULLY REDUCED POPS BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AREAWIDE. NONETHELESS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THOUGH MODELS TRY TO LINGER
SOME OF ODILES MOISTURE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
TONIGHT...MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE
WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY THEN.

WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE A PRONOUNCED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE A GENERAL EASTERLY TRANSITION IN WIND
DIRECTION AREAWIDE DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE WEST COAST. THIS MAKES SATURDAYS
POP FORECAST A BIT TRICKY...BECAUSE THERE NO LONGER LOOKS TO BE A
PRONOUNCED AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF BOTH
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT MODELS STILL LIKE THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. MAYBE BECAUSE OF THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE COMING IN FROM
THAT DIRECTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRAWS DEEPER MONSOON
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...THE BEST PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
MAKE PROGRESS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY...PROBABLY WITH
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS/TRIGGER FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD. IF THIS FRONT IS SLOW ENOUGH...IT COULD CAUSE A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THIS OUTCOME WILL NECESSITATE AN INCREASE IN CENTRAL
VALLEY POPS BY LATER SHIFTS IF WE CAN GAIN SOME CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION.

WITH MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO AND NM UNDER
NW FLOW ALOFT...THE AREA WILL BE CUT OFF FROM MONSOON MOISTURE
WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WHICH IS KEEPING REMNANTS OF ODILE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THAN EXPECTED. MODELS STILL DEPICT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AN AREA THAT WILL SEE POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NW...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NM...AND
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

DESPITE ODILE EXITING THE AREA...WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN
CA LATE FRIDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER NM. THE LOW
WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW PROGRESSION ROUNDING THE HIGH...MOVING
TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS BY
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY
WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND GUSTY UPSLOPE WINDS...WITH
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THESE FACTORS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP FOR MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. THE
WARMING EXPECTED SATURDAY WILL BE COUNTERED WITH SIMILAR COOLING
SUNDAY...FLUCTUATING FROM NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY TO NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE BETTER TRANSPORT WINDS...CAUSING VENTILATION RATES TO
BECOME GOOD BOTH DAYS FOR MOST AREAS.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK
AS MODELS HONE IN ON A WEAK DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. WHILE MODELS HINT AT MOISTURE WORKING IN UNDERNEATH
THE REDEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE STATE...OVERALL STORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN RECENT DAYS. THE BIGGEST ISSUE
WILL BE LACK OF TRANSPORT WINDS CAUSING VENT RATES TO TREND DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY TO FAIR AND POOR VALUES. BEYOND THAT...MODELS SEEM TO
AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FEATURE WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
AT SOME POINT. REMAINS TOO EARLY YET TO KNOW POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM.AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WHICH IS KEEPING REMNANTS OF ODILE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THAN EXPECTED. MODELS STILL DEPICT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AN AREA THAT WILL SEE POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NW...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NM...AND
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 190933
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
333 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
TODAY AS THE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE ODILE SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FEW SPOTS COULD ACCUMULATE OVER 1 INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPOTTIER TODAY.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY KEEPING MOISTURE
IN THE AREA AND LEADING TO A DAY OF COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SLOWLY NORTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY DRAWING MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF
MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN MOST
PLACES. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EXIT THE ROCKIES ONTO THE UPPER
GREAT PLAINS...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND IN EARNEST
STARTING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TRYING TO PAINT ABUNDANT QPF OVER EASTERN NM FOR
TODAY...SOME MORE THAN OTHERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOWS DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT PUSH IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
OUR EASTERN PLAINS. SO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SIDED WITH THE DRIER
GFS AND PURPOSEFULLY REDUCED POPS BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AREAWIDE. NONETHELESS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THOUGH MODELS TRY TO LINGER
SOME OF ODILES MOISTURE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
TONIGHT...MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE
WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY THEN.

WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE A PRONOUNCED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE A GENERAL EASTERLY TRANSITION IN WIND
DIRECTION AREAWIDE DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE WEST COAST. THIS MAKES SATURDAYS
POP FORECAST A BIT TRICKY...BECAUSE THERE NO LONGER LOOKS TO BE A
PRONOUNCED AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF BOTH
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT MODELS STILL LIKE THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. MAYBE BECAUSE OF THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE COMING IN FROM
THAT DIRECTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRAWS DEEPER MONSOON
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...THE BEST PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
MAKE PROGRESS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY...PROBABLY WITH
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS/TRIGGER FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD. IF THIS FRONT IS SLOW ENOUGH...IT COULD CAUSE A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THIS OUTCOME WILL NECESSITATE AN INCREASE IN CENTRAL
VALLEY POPS BY LATER SHIFTS IF WE CAN GAIN SOME CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION.

WITH MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO AND NM UNDER
NW FLOW ALOFT...THE AREA WILL BE CUT OFF FROM MONSOON MOISTURE
WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WHICH IS KEEPING REMNANTS OF ODILE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THAN EXPECTED. MODELS STILL DEPICT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AN AREA THAT WILL SEE POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NW...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NM...AND
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

DESPITE ODILE EXITING THE AREA...WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN
CA LATE FRIDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER NM. THE LOW
WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW PROGRESSION ROUNDING THE HIGH...MOVING
TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS BY
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY
WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND GUSTY UPSLOPE WINDS...WITH
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THESE FACTORS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP FOR MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. THE
WARMING EXPECTED SATURDAY WILL BE COUNTERED WITH SIMILAR COOLING
SUNDAY...FLUCTUATING FROM NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY TO NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE BETTER TRANSPORT WINDS...CAUSING VENTILATION RATES TO
BECOME GOOD BOTH DAYS FOR MOST AREAS.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK
AS MODELS HONE IN ON A WEAK DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. WHILE MODELS HINT AT MOISTURE WORKING IN UNDERNEATH
THE REDEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE STATE...OVERALL STORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN RECENT DAYS. THE BIGGEST ISSUE
WILL BE LACK OF TRANSPORT WINDS CAUSING VENT RATES TO TREND DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY TO FAIR AND POOR VALUES. BEYOND THAT...MODELS SEEM TO
AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FEATURE WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
AT SOME POINT. REMAINS TOO EARLY YET TO KNOW POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM.AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WHICH IS KEEPING REMNANTS OF ODILE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THAN EXPECTED. MODELS STILL DEPICT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AN AREA THAT WILL SEE POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NW...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NM...AND
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ODILE REMNANTS DRIFTING EAST AND NORTH ALONG INTERSTATE 40 IN
EASTERN NM WILL CROSS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 18Z FRI NOONTIME
WITH CONTINUING OVERNIGHT MT OBSCURATION AND EASTERN PLAINS FOG.
EASTERLY WIND SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL PROMOTE UP SLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AGAINST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FROM 18Z
ONWARD FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z. OVERNIGHT...LOW
CIGS...RAIN AND FOG WILL DROP LVS...TCC...AND ROW TO MVFR AND IFR.
SCT CLOUD GROUPS AT IFR/MVFR LEVELS SERVING AS PLACEHOLDERS FOR
DOWNWARD CIG EXCURSIONS DURING VALID PERIOD. VCSH BRACKETS
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR NEARBY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER.

SHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  86  54  88  59 /   5   5   5  20
DULCE...........................  82  45  88  48 /  10  10  10  20
CUBA............................  80  49  85  51 /  20  10  10  20
GALLUP..........................  82  49  85  51 /  10  10  10  20
EL MORRO........................  75  49  78  51 /  20  10  10  20
GRANTS..........................  79  51  82  53 /  10  10  10  20
QUEMADO.........................  74  51  79  52 /  20  10  20  20
GLENWOOD........................  80  52  87  52 /  20  20  30  20
CHAMA...........................  78  42  80  44 /  10  10  10  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  76  55  81  56 /  20  10  10  20
PECOS...........................  71  52  78  52 /  30  20  10  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  77  47  78  48 /  20  10  10  20
RED RIVER.......................  68  45  68  44 /  20  10  20  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  71  38  73  38 /  20  10  10  30
TAOS............................  74  47  80  48 /  20  10  10  20
MORA............................  71  49  78  49 /  30  20  10  30
ESPANOLA........................  80  54  87  54 /  20  10  10  20
SANTA FE........................  74  54  80  54 /  30  10  10  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  78  53  84  53 /  20  10  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  80  59  84  62 /  20  10  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  80  61  86  62 /  20  10  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  82  60  87  60 /  20  10  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  83  60  89  60 /  20  10  10  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  82  57  86  58 /  20  10  10  20
RIO RANCHO......................  84  59  89  60 /  20  10  10  20
SOCORRO.........................  83  61  89  62 /  20  10  10  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  79  56  84  57 /  30  10  10  30
TIJERAS.........................  79  55  83  58 /  30  10  10  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  75  47  82  49 /  40  20  10  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  71  54  75  53 /  40  20  10  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  73  54  78  58 /  40  20  20  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  77  58  81  60 /  40  20  20  40
RUIDOSO.........................  71  53  76  53 /  50  30  20  50
CAPULIN.........................  74  50  75  53 /  20  20  10  20
RATON...........................  79  49  82  51 /  20  10  10  20
SPRINGER........................  77  51  83  53 /  20  20  10  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  71  49  79  51 /  40  20  10  30
CLAYTON.........................  76  59  79  57 /  20  20  20  10
ROY.............................  73  55  78  56 /  40  20  20  30
CONCHAS.........................  75  62  81  62 /  50  30  20  30
SANTA ROSA......................  74  60  80  61 /  50  30  20  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  75  64  81  62 /  50  40  30  30
CLOVIS..........................  73  61  77  61 /  70  50  40  40
PORTALES........................  74  64  78  63 /  70  50  40  40
FORT SUMNER.....................  74  62  80  63 /  50  40  30  40
ROSWELL.........................  78  64  82  65 /  50  40  20  40
PICACHO.........................  73  58  78  61 /  50  40  20  50
ELK.............................  71  56  74  57 /  50  50  20  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS65 KABQ 190933
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
333 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
REMNANT MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
TODAY AS THE EXTRATROPICAL CIRCULATION FORMERLY ASSOCIATED WITH
HURRICANE ODILE SLOWLY SHIFTS FROM SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO TO THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE. A FEW SPOTS COULD ACCUMULATE OVER 1 INCH OF
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER.
ELSEWHERE...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SPOTTIER TODAY.
EASTERLY FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA SATURDAY KEEPING MOISTURE
IN THE AREA AND LEADING TO A DAY OF COOLER HIGH TEMPERATURES
SUNDAY. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SLOWLY NORTH
OF THE AREA SUNDAY DRAWING MONSOON MOISTURE NORTHWARD OUT OF
MEXICO WITH SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IN MOST
PLACES. AS THE UPPER LOW BEGINS TO EXIT THE ROCKIES ONTO THE UPPER
GREAT PLAINS...DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AND
THE FAVORED LOCATION FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD SHIFT
OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND
BELOW NORMAL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND IN EARNEST
STARTING TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TRYING TO PAINT ABUNDANT QPF OVER EASTERN NM FOR
TODAY...SOME MORE THAN OTHERS. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY EARLY THIS
MORNING SHOWS DRY AIR FILTERING IN FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
WITHOUT A SIGNIFICANT PUSH IN SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD INTO
OUR EASTERN PLAINS. SO THIS FORECAST PACKAGE SIDED WITH THE DRIER
GFS AND PURPOSEFULLY REDUCED POPS BELOW THE MODEL CONSENSUS
AREAWIDE. NONETHELESS...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAIN ACCUMULATION MAINLY ACROSS
THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THOUGH MODELS TRY TO LINGER
SOME OF ODILES MOISTURE OVER OUR FAR EASTERN COUNTIES INTO
TONIGHT...MODEL PERFORMANCE WITH THIS SYSTEM SUGGESTS THE MOISTURE
WILL BE EAST OF OUR AREA BY THEN.

WHAT WAS LOOKING LIKE A PRONOUNCED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON
SATURDAY NOW LOOKS MORE LIKE A GENERAL EASTERLY TRANSITION IN WIND
DIRECTION AREAWIDE DUE TO LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE INTO A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING ON THE WEST COAST. THIS MAKES SATURDAYS
POP FORECAST A BIT TRICKY...BECAUSE THERE NO LONGER LOOKS TO BE A
PRONOUNCED AREA OF SURFACE CONVERGENCE WITH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF BOTH
THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR SHOWER AND STORM
DEVELOPMENT...BUT MODELS STILL LIKE THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST
PLAINS. MAYBE BECAUSE OF THE ABUNDANCE OF MOISTURE COMING IN FROM
THAT DIRECTION.

AS THE UPPER LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA AND DRAWS DEEPER MONSOON
MOISTURE NORTHWARD...THE BEST PERIOD OF THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
LOOKS TO BE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO
MAKE PROGRESS INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST MONDAY...PROBABLY WITH
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD PROVIDE A FOCUS/TRIGGER FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS TO DEVELOP ALONG FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EASTWARD. IF THIS FRONT IS SLOW ENOUGH...IT COULD CAUSE A
LINE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TO MOVE EASTWARD THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. THIS OUTCOME WILL NECESSITATE AN INCREASE IN CENTRAL
VALLEY POPS BY LATER SHIFTS IF WE CAN GAIN SOME CONFIDENCE IN THAT SOLUTION.

WITH MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NW MEXICO AND NM UNDER
NW FLOW ALOFT...THE AREA WILL BE CUT OFF FROM MONSOON MOISTURE
WITH ONLY SPOTTY SHOWERS AND STORMS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WHICH IS KEEPING REMNANTS OF ODILE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THAN EXPECTED. MODELS STILL DEPICT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AN AREA THAT WILL SEE POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NW...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NM...AND
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

DESPITE ODILE EXITING THE AREA...WEATHER WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CLOSE OFF OVER SOUTHERN
CA LATE FRIDAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY BUILDS OVER NM. THE LOW
WILL THEN BEGIN A SLOW PROGRESSION ROUNDING THE HIGH...MOVING
TOWARDS THE GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND MOVING INTO THE GREAT PLAINS BY
TUESDAY. A SERIES OF BACKDOOR COLD FRONTS SATURDAY AND EARLY SUNDAY
WILL ALSO BRING INCREASED MOISTURE AND GUSTY UPSLOPE WINDS...WITH
STRONG WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
THESE FACTORS WILL KEEP SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES UP FOR MUCH
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS WEEKEND...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN SATURDAY AND ACROSS THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY. THE
WARMING EXPECTED SATURDAY WILL BE COUNTERED WITH SIMILAR COOLING
SUNDAY...FLUCTUATING FROM NEAR AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
SATURDAY TO NEAR AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. THE FRONT
WILL PROVIDE BETTER TRANSPORT WINDS...CAUSING VENTILATION RATES TO
BECOME GOOD BOTH DAYS FOR MOST AREAS.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN LATE MONDAY INTO MIDWEEK
AS MODELS HONE IN ON A WEAK DRY SLOT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EXITING
UPPER LEVEL LOW. WHILE MODELS HINT AT MOISTURE WORKING IN UNDERNEATH
THE REDEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER THE STATE...OVERALL STORM
ACTIVITY SHOULD BE MUCH LESS THAN RECENT DAYS. THE BIGGEST ISSUE
WILL BE LACK OF TRANSPORT WINDS CAUSING VENT RATES TO TREND DOWN BY
WEDNESDAY TO FAIR AND POOR VALUES. BEYOND THAT...MODELS SEEM TO
AGREE THAT A SIGNIFICANT TROUGH FEATURE WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE
LATE WEEK AND WEEKEND PERIOD WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
AT SOME POINT. REMAINS TOO EARLY YET TO KNOW POTENTIAL IMPACTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM.AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH IS REMAINING FAIRLY STRONG OVER SOUTHERN
COLORADO...WHICH IS KEEPING REMNANTS OF ODILE FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST
THAN EXPECTED. MODELS STILL DEPICT SHOWERS MOVING NORTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS TODAY...BUT THIS UPPER LEVEL FEATURE COULD LIMIT THE
OVERALL PROGRESSION. LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG WILL PERSIST FOR A
GOOD PORTION OF THE MORNING ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN...AN AREA THAT WILL SEE POOR VENTILATION RATES TODAY AS A
RESULT. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
YESTERDAY...WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND UNSETTLED WEATHER EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HIGHS WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE NW...NEAR NORMAL ACROSS CENTRAL NM...AND
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ODILE REMNANTS DRIFTING EAST AND NORTH ALONG INTERSTATE 40 IN
EASTERN NM WILL CROSS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 18Z FRI NOONTIME
WITH CONTINUING OVERNIGHT MT OBSCURATION AND EASTERN PLAINS FOG.
EASTERLY WIND SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL PROMOTE UP SLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AGAINST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FROM 18Z
ONWARD FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z. OVERNIGHT...LOW
CIGS...RAIN AND FOG WILL DROP LVS...TCC...AND ROW TO MVFR AND IFR.
SCT CLOUD GROUPS AT IFR/MVFR LEVELS SERVING AS PLACEHOLDERS FOR
DOWNWARD CIG EXCURSIONS DURING VALID PERIOD. VCSH BRACKETS
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR NEARBY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER.

SHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  86  54  88  59 /   5   5   5  20
DULCE...........................  82  45  88  48 /  10  10  10  20
CUBA............................  80  49  85  51 /  20  10  10  20
GALLUP..........................  82  49  85  51 /  10  10  10  20
EL MORRO........................  75  49  78  51 /  20  10  10  20
GRANTS..........................  79  51  82  53 /  10  10  10  20
QUEMADO.........................  74  51  79  52 /  20  10  20  20
GLENWOOD........................  80  52  87  52 /  20  20  30  20
CHAMA...........................  78  42  80  44 /  10  10  10  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  76  55  81  56 /  20  10  10  20
PECOS...........................  71  52  78  52 /  30  20  10  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  77  47  78  48 /  20  10  10  20
RED RIVER.......................  68  45  68  44 /  20  10  20  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  71  38  73  38 /  20  10  10  30
TAOS............................  74  47  80  48 /  20  10  10  20
MORA............................  71  49  78  49 /  30  20  10  30
ESPANOLA........................  80  54  87  54 /  20  10  10  20
SANTA FE........................  74  54  80  54 /  30  10  10  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  78  53  84  53 /  20  10  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  80  59  84  62 /  20  10  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  80  61  86  62 /  20  10  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  82  60  87  60 /  20  10  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  83  60  89  60 /  20  10  10  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  82  57  86  58 /  20  10  10  20
RIO RANCHO......................  84  59  89  60 /  20  10  10  20
SOCORRO.........................  83  61  89  62 /  20  10  10  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  79  56  84  57 /  30  10  10  30
TIJERAS.........................  79  55  83  58 /  30  10  10  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  75  47  82  49 /  40  20  10  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  71  54  75  53 /  40  20  10  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  73  54  78  58 /  40  20  20  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  77  58  81  60 /  40  20  20  40
RUIDOSO.........................  71  53  76  53 /  50  30  20  50
CAPULIN.........................  74  50  75  53 /  20  20  10  20
RATON...........................  79  49  82  51 /  20  10  10  20
SPRINGER........................  77  51  83  53 /  20  20  10  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  71  49  79  51 /  40  20  10  30
CLAYTON.........................  76  59  79  57 /  20  20  20  10
ROY.............................  73  55  78  56 /  40  20  20  30
CONCHAS.........................  75  62  81  62 /  50  30  20  30
SANTA ROSA......................  74  60  80  61 /  50  30  20  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  75  64  81  62 /  50  40  30  30
CLOVIS..........................  73  61  77  61 /  70  50  40  40
PORTALES........................  74  64  78  63 /  70  50  40  40
FORT SUMNER.....................  74  62  80  63 /  50  40  30  40
ROSWELL.........................  78  64  82  65 /  50  40  20  40
PICACHO.........................  73  58  78  61 /  50  40  20  50
ELK.............................  71  56  74  57 /  50  50  20  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44






000
FXUS65 KABQ 190543 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ODILE REMNANTS DRIFTING EAST AND NORTH ALONG INTERSTATE 40 IN
EASTERN NM WILL CROSS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 18Z FRI NOONTIME
WITH CONTINUING OVERNIGHT MT OBSCURATION AND EASTERN PLAINS FOG.
EASTERLY WIND SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL PROMOTE UP SLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AGAINST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FROM 18Z
ONWARD FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z. OVERNIGHT...LOW
CIGS...RAIN AND FOG WILL DROP LVS...TCC...AND ROW TO MVFR AND IFR.
SCT CLOUD GROUPS AT IFR/MVFR LEVELS SERVING AS PLACEHOLDERS FOR
DOWNWARD CIG EXCURSIONS DURING VALID PERIOD. VCSH BRACKETS
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR NEARBY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...730 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WORDING FROM ZFP AND
TO LOWER POPS. REMNANT WARM CORE ODILE CIRCULATION ALL BUT KAPUT
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NM THIS EVENING. DECREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH NO DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL
MESOSCALE ATMOSPHERIC LIFT REMAINING AND INSTABILITY WAINING.
STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE AND
EAST- CENTRAL AREAS...THE VAST MAJORITY OF WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.

33

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS WE CHASE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHEASTERN...AND EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF NM.
WHILE THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS STILL IN SOUTHWESTERN NM...THE
BEST SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY DISPLACED TO THE
EAST...ESSENTIALLY BLANKETING THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF NM AT
THIS TIME. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BATCH OF STRATIFORM RAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NM...ADVANCING TOWARD CHAVES COUNTY AND
POTENTIALLY SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE CELLS ARE
ALSO FIRING IN CATRON...SOCORRO...AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS IN CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES MAY SUPPRESS
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...LEAVING A LATER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR LOWER RIO GRANDE...GILA...AND SAN FRANCISCO RIVER ZONES...BUT
WILL KEEP REMAINING AREAS AS-IS. THE HEART OF
CHAVES...CURRY...ROOSEVELT...AND DE BACA COUNTIES HAVE NOT
OBSERVED TOO MUCH RAINFALL YET...THUS THEY ARE NOT PRIMED AS MUCH
AS POINTS FARTHER WEST.

INTO FRIDAY THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL WORK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN
NM...WITH A HEALTHY SLUG OF LAGGING MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PLETHORA OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE DUE TO A DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO EXIT EAST
NM AND PUSH INTO WEST TX BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OLD
MEXICO AND A TROUGH CLOSING INTO A LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL BE
DRIVING FEATURES THAT DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY REMNANTS OF ODILE
EXIT.

SHOULD ODILE EXIT AS ADVERTISED...A BACK DOOR FRONT WOULD MOVE
INTO ITS PLACE...BRINGING IN SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS
ALONG THE FRONT WOULD APPEAR TO BE TOO DRY TO SPAWN TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION...BUT IF MOISTURE FROM ODILE IS SLOWER TO
EXIT THEN THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT MAY HELP IGNITE A FEW CELLS.
ELSEWHERE THE DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD POSE DIFFICULTY IN SUPPORTING
STORM FORMATION...AND THUS POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT AT 10-20 PERCENT
FOR MOST REMAINING AREAS. THE FRONT COULD SPILL THROUGH THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AROUND NOON SATURDAY...INTRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS
DOWNWIND OF CANYONS/GAPS.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA SHOULD DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NV WITH A BRIEF CHANNEL OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN
UP OVER WESTERN NM. THE STORY IN THE EAST COULD BE A RETURN OF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE EAST WITH MOIST UP SLOPE FLOW. THE POPS
HAVE NOT BEEN HOISTED TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ONCE THE CLOSED LOW PUSHES EAST INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS BY MID WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE OVER NM WITH A DEEP PACIFIC NW STORM TAKING SHAPE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS NEAR TERM WILL BE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND WETTING
RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE SOUTH/EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SATURDAY COMBINED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE DRIER NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN THE CARDS WITH RESIDUAL UNSETTLEDNESS AND SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK.

REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
EXISTS. DRIER AIR WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE NORTH SHOULD
MOISTEN SOME...AT LEAST AT THE LOW LEVELS ON FRIDAY THUS RH VALUES
WILL RISE. WETTING RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. MAX VENTILATION SHOULD DROP INTO THE POOR
CATEGORY ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALSO INCLUDE THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE JEMEZ MTNS. CAVEAT IS THAT THERE
IS QUITE A GRADIENT DEPICTED BY THE MODELS SO DONT BE SURPRISED IF
FORECASTED VENT RATES CHANGED ALONG THIS BUFFER AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HRS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS APPEAR TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR IN DEPICTING
A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AND QUITE
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CATALYST FOR THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WOULD BE RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
ODILE PASSAGE...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND A CLOSED LOW ORIGINATING
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE STRONGER PRECIPITATION DAY APPEARS TO
BE SUNDAY BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLOSED PACIFIC LOW
EJECTION FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
DOWN DAY ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL HIGH HUMIDITY SHOULD CONTINUE. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
VENTILATION RATES DONT LOOK ALL THAT LOW ALTHOUGH SOME POORS SHOW UP
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND SE. IMPROVING VENTILATION FOR THE
MOST PART ON SUNDAY.

GFS/ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING DRIER MID LEVEL AIR PUSHING
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH IS BEING
DEPICTED BY BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS LATE WEEK/FOLLOWING WEEKEND AND THE
TIMING/ORIENTATION OF THIS TROUGH PASSAGE WOULD CERTAINLY BE IN
QUESTION. WILL IT CLOSE OFF AND BE SLOWER TO IMPACT THE AREA OR WILL
IT BE MORE PROGRESSIVE. IF IT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THEN LOOK FOR SOME
STRONGER WIND AHEAD OF IT WITH HIGH VENTILATION RATES. TOO EARLY TO
SAY RIGHT NOW.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33






000
FXUS65 KABQ 190543 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ODILE REMNANTS DRIFTING EAST AND NORTH ALONG INTERSTATE 40 IN
EASTERN NM WILL CROSS INTO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 18Z FRI NOONTIME
WITH CONTINUING OVERNIGHT MT OBSCURATION AND EASTERN PLAINS FOG.
EASTERLY WIND SHIFT ACROSS EASTERN NM WILL PROMOTE UP SLOPE
ENHANCEMENT OF SHOWERS AGAINST THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FROM 18Z
ONWARD FRIDAY WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH 06Z. OVERNIGHT...LOW
CIGS...RAIN AND FOG WILL DROP LVS...TCC...AND ROW TO MVFR AND IFR.
SCT CLOUD GROUPS AT IFR/MVFR LEVELS SERVING AS PLACEHOLDERS FOR
DOWNWARD CIG EXCURSIONS DURING VALID PERIOD. VCSH BRACKETS
GREATEST LIKELIHOOD FOR NEARBY SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDER.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...730 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WORDING FROM ZFP AND
TO LOWER POPS. REMNANT WARM CORE ODILE CIRCULATION ALL BUT KAPUT
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NM THIS EVENING. DECREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH NO DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL
MESOSCALE ATMOSPHERIC LIFT REMAINING AND INSTABILITY WAINING.
STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE AND
EAST- CENTRAL AREAS...THE VAST MAJORITY OF WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.

33

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS WE CHASE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHEASTERN...AND EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF NM.
WHILE THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS STILL IN SOUTHWESTERN NM...THE
BEST SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY DISPLACED TO THE
EAST...ESSENTIALLY BLANKETING THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF NM AT
THIS TIME. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BATCH OF STRATIFORM RAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NM...ADVANCING TOWARD CHAVES COUNTY AND
POTENTIALLY SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE CELLS ARE
ALSO FIRING IN CATRON...SOCORRO...AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS IN CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES MAY SUPPRESS
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...LEAVING A LATER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR LOWER RIO GRANDE...GILA...AND SAN FRANCISCO RIVER ZONES...BUT
WILL KEEP REMAINING AREAS AS-IS. THE HEART OF
CHAVES...CURRY...ROOSEVELT...AND DE BACA COUNTIES HAVE NOT
OBSERVED TOO MUCH RAINFALL YET...THUS THEY ARE NOT PRIMED AS MUCH
AS POINTS FARTHER WEST.

INTO FRIDAY THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL WORK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN
NM...WITH A HEALTHY SLUG OF LAGGING MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PLETHORA OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE DUE TO A DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO EXIT EAST
NM AND PUSH INTO WEST TX BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OLD
MEXICO AND A TROUGH CLOSING INTO A LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL BE
DRIVING FEATURES THAT DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY REMNANTS OF ODILE
EXIT.

SHOULD ODILE EXIT AS ADVERTISED...A BACK DOOR FRONT WOULD MOVE
INTO ITS PLACE...BRINGING IN SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS
ALONG THE FRONT WOULD APPEAR TO BE TOO DRY TO SPAWN TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION...BUT IF MOISTURE FROM ODILE IS SLOWER TO
EXIT THEN THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT MAY HELP IGNITE A FEW CELLS.
ELSEWHERE THE DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD POSE DIFFICULTY IN SUPPORTING
STORM FORMATION...AND THUS POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT AT 10-20 PERCENT
FOR MOST REMAINING AREAS. THE FRONT COULD SPILL THROUGH THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AROUND NOON SATURDAY...INTRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS
DOWNWIND OF CANYONS/GAPS.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA SHOULD DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NV WITH A BRIEF CHANNEL OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN
UP OVER WESTERN NM. THE STORY IN THE EAST COULD BE A RETURN OF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE EAST WITH MOIST UP SLOPE FLOW. THE POPS
HAVE NOT BEEN HOISTED TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ONCE THE CLOSED LOW PUSHES EAST INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS BY MID WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE OVER NM WITH A DEEP PACIFIC NW STORM TAKING SHAPE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS NEAR TERM WILL BE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND WETTING
RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE SOUTH/EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SATURDAY COMBINED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE DRIER NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN THE CARDS WITH RESIDUAL UNSETTLEDNESS AND SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK.

REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
EXISTS. DRIER AIR WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE NORTH SHOULD
MOISTEN SOME...AT LEAST AT THE LOW LEVELS ON FRIDAY THUS RH VALUES
WILL RISE. WETTING RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. MAX VENTILATION SHOULD DROP INTO THE POOR
CATEGORY ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALSO INCLUDE THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE JEMEZ MTNS. CAVEAT IS THAT THERE
IS QUITE A GRADIENT DEPICTED BY THE MODELS SO DONT BE SURPRISED IF
FORECASTED VENT RATES CHANGED ALONG THIS BUFFER AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HRS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS APPEAR TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR IN DEPICTING
A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AND QUITE
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CATALYST FOR THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WOULD BE RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
ODILE PASSAGE...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND A CLOSED LOW ORIGINATING
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE STRONGER PRECIPITATION DAY APPEARS TO
BE SUNDAY BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLOSED PACIFIC LOW
EJECTION FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
DOWN DAY ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL HIGH HUMIDITY SHOULD CONTINUE. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
VENTILATION RATES DONT LOOK ALL THAT LOW ALTHOUGH SOME POORS SHOW UP
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND SE. IMPROVING VENTILATION FOR THE
MOST PART ON SUNDAY.

GFS/ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING DRIER MID LEVEL AIR PUSHING
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH IS BEING
DEPICTED BY BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS LATE WEEK/FOLLOWING WEEKEND AND THE
TIMING/ORIENTATION OF THIS TROUGH PASSAGE WOULD CERTAINLY BE IN
QUESTION. WILL IT CLOSE OFF AND BE SLOWER TO IMPACT THE AREA OR WILL
IT BE MORE PROGRESSIVE. IF IT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THEN LOOK FOR SOME
STRONGER WIND AHEAD OF IT WITH HIGH VENTILATION RATES. TOO EARLY TO
SAY RIGHT NOW.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33







000
FXUS65 KABQ 190130 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
730 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WORDING FROM ZFP AND
TO LOWER POPS. REMNANT WARM CORE ODILE CIRCULATION ALL BUT KAPUT
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NM THIS EVENING. DECREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH NO DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL
MESOSCALE ATMOSPHERIC LIFT REMAINING AND INSTABILITY WAINING.
STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE AND
EAST- CENTRAL AREAS...THE VAST MAJORITY OF WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...539 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ODILE LEFTOVERS OVER SOUTHERN NM MOVING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS. IFR CIGS AND VIZ IN HEAVIER SHOWERS CONTINUING
OVER SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...WITH SHIFT IN FOCUS TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE FROM 17Z ONWARD FRI DAYTIME. HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL DRIFT INTO TX BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON. TAFS WRITTEN WITH
VCSH STANDING FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...WITH SCT CLOUD GROUP AT LOWEST EXPECTED CIG EXCURSION
DURING SHOWERS. OUT EAST...VCFG STANDING FOR IFR TO LIFR FOG FROM
05Z ONWARD THIS EVE AT LVS AND TCC...WITH LATER ONSET BETWEEN RAIN
SHOWERS FOR ROW. FOG LIFTING AROUND 18Z FRI NOONTIME. BROAD AREAS
OF MT OBSCURATION OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH FRI.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS WE CHASE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHEASTERN...AND EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF NM.
WHILE THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS STILL IN SOUTHWESTERN NM...THE
BEST SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY DISPLACED TO THE
EAST...ESSENTIALLY BLANKETING THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF NM AT
THIS TIME. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BATCH OF STRATIFORM RAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NM...ADVANCING TOWARD CHAVES COUNTY AND
POTENTIALLY SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE CELLS ARE
ALSO FIRING IN CATRON...SOCORRO...AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS IN CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES MAY SUPPRESS
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...LEAVING A LATER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR LOWER RIO GRANDE...GILA...AND SAN FRANCISCO RIVER ZONES...BUT
WILL KEEP REMAINING AREAS AS-IS. THE HEART OF
CHAVES...CURRY...ROOSEVELT...AND DE BACA COUNTIES HAVE NOT
OBSERVED TOO MUCH RAINFALL YET...THUS THEY ARE NOT PRIMED AS MUCH
AS POINTS FARTHER WEST.

INTO FRIDAY THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL WORK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN
NM...WITH A HEALTHY SLUG OF LAGGING MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PLETHORA OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE DUE TO A DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO EXIT EAST
NM AND PUSH INTO WEST TX BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OLD
MEXICO AND A TROUGH CLOSING INTO A LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL BE
DRIVING FEATURES THAT DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY REMNANTS OF ODILE
EXIT.

SHOULD ODILE EXIT AS ADVERTISED...A BACK DOOR FRONT WOULD MOVE
INTO ITS PLACE...BRINGING IN SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS
ALONG THE FRONT WOULD APPEAR TO BE TOO DRY TO SPAWN TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION...BUT IF MOISTURE FROM ODILE IS SLOWER TO
EXIT THEN THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT MAY HELP IGNITE A FEW CELLS.
ELSEWHERE THE DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD POSE DIFFICULTY IN SUPPORTING
STORM FORMATION...AND THUS POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT AT 10-20 PERCENT
FOR MOST REMAINING AREAS. THE FRONT COULD SPILL THROUGH THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AROUND NOON SATURDAY...INTRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS
DOWNWIND OF CANYONS/GAPS.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA SHOULD DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NV WITH A BRIEF CHANNEL OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN
UP OVER WESTERN NM. THE STORY IN THE EAST COULD BE A RETURN OF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE EAST WITH MOIST UP SLOPE FLOW. THE POPS
HAVE NOT BEEN HOISTED TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ONCE THE CLOSED LOW PUSHES EAST INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS BY MID WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE OVER NM WITH A DEEP PACIFIC NW STORM TAKING SHAPE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS NEAR TERM WILL BE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND WETTING
RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE SOUTH/EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SATURDAY COMBINED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE DRIER NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN THE CARDS WITH RESIDUAL UNSETTLEDNESS AND SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK.

REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
EXISTS. DRIER AIR WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE NORTH SHOULD
MOISTEN SOME...AT LEAST AT THE LOW LEVELS ON FRIDAY THUS RH VALUES
WILL RISE. WETTING RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. MAX VENTILATION SHOULD DROP INTO THE POOR
CATEGORY ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALSO INCLUDE THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE JEMEZ MTNS. CAVEAT IS THAT THERE
IS QUITE A GRADIENT DEPICTED BY THE MODELS SO DONT BE SURPRISED IF
FORECASTED VENT RATES CHANGED ALONG THIS BUFFER AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HRS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS APPEAR TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR IN DEPICTING
A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AND QUITE
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CATALYST FOR THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WOULD BE RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
ODILE PASSAGE...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND A CLOSED LOW ORIGINATING
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE STRONGER PRECIPITATION DAY APPEARS TO
BE SUNDAY BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLOSED PACIFIC LOW
EJECTION FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
DOWN DAY ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL HIGH HUMIDITY SHOULD CONTINUE. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
VENTILATION RATES DONT LOOK ALL THAT LOW ALTHOUGH SOME POORS SHOW UP
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND SE. IMPROVING VENTILATION FOR THE
MOST PART ON SUNDAY.

GFS/ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING DRIER MID LEVEL AIR PUSHING
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH IS BEING
DEPICTED BY BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS LATE WEEK/FOLLOWING WEEKEND AND THE
TIMING/ORIENTATION OF THIS TROUGH PASSAGE WOULD CERTAINLY BE IN
QUESTION. WILL IT CLOSE OFF AND BE SLOWER TO IMPACT THE AREA OR WILL
IT BE MORE PROGRESSIVE. IF IT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THEN LOOK FOR SOME
STRONGER WIND AHEAD OF IT WITH HIGH VENTILATION RATES. TOO EARLY TO
SAY RIGHT NOW.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33







000
FXUS65 KABQ 190130 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
730 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WORDING FROM ZFP AND
TO LOWER POPS. REMNANT WARM CORE ODILE CIRCULATION ALL BUT KAPUT
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NM THIS EVENING. DECREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES SIGNIFICANTLY OVERNIGHT WITH NO DISCERNIBLE UPPER LEVEL
MESOSCALE ATMOSPHERIC LIFT REMAINING AND INSTABILITY WAINING.
STILL EXPECTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SE AND
EAST- CENTRAL AREAS...THE VAST MAJORITY OF WHICH SHOULD BE IN THE
FORM OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...539 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ODILE LEFTOVERS OVER SOUTHERN NM MOVING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS. IFR CIGS AND VIZ IN HEAVIER SHOWERS CONTINUING
OVER SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...WITH SHIFT IN FOCUS TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE FROM 17Z ONWARD FRI DAYTIME. HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL DRIFT INTO TX BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON. TAFS WRITTEN WITH
VCSH STANDING FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...WITH SCT CLOUD GROUP AT LOWEST EXPECTED CIG EXCURSION
DURING SHOWERS. OUT EAST...VCFG STANDING FOR IFR TO LIFR FOG FROM
05Z ONWARD THIS EVE AT LVS AND TCC...WITH LATER ONSET BETWEEN RAIN
SHOWERS FOR ROW. FOG LIFTING AROUND 18Z FRI NOONTIME. BROAD AREAS
OF MT OBSCURATION OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH FRI.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS WE CHASE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHEASTERN...AND EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF NM.
WHILE THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS STILL IN SOUTHWESTERN NM...THE
BEST SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY DISPLACED TO THE
EAST...ESSENTIALLY BLANKETING THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF NM AT
THIS TIME. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BATCH OF STRATIFORM RAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NM...ADVANCING TOWARD CHAVES COUNTY AND
POTENTIALLY SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE CELLS ARE
ALSO FIRING IN CATRON...SOCORRO...AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS IN CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES MAY SUPPRESS
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...LEAVING A LATER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR LOWER RIO GRANDE...GILA...AND SAN FRANCISCO RIVER ZONES...BUT
WILL KEEP REMAINING AREAS AS-IS. THE HEART OF
CHAVES...CURRY...ROOSEVELT...AND DE BACA COUNTIES HAVE NOT
OBSERVED TOO MUCH RAINFALL YET...THUS THEY ARE NOT PRIMED AS MUCH
AS POINTS FARTHER WEST.

INTO FRIDAY THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL WORK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN
NM...WITH A HEALTHY SLUG OF LAGGING MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PLETHORA OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE DUE TO A DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO EXIT EAST
NM AND PUSH INTO WEST TX BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OLD
MEXICO AND A TROUGH CLOSING INTO A LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL BE
DRIVING FEATURES THAT DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY REMNANTS OF ODILE
EXIT.

SHOULD ODILE EXIT AS ADVERTISED...A BACK DOOR FRONT WOULD MOVE
INTO ITS PLACE...BRINGING IN SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS
ALONG THE FRONT WOULD APPEAR TO BE TOO DRY TO SPAWN TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION...BUT IF MOISTURE FROM ODILE IS SLOWER TO
EXIT THEN THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT MAY HELP IGNITE A FEW CELLS.
ELSEWHERE THE DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD POSE DIFFICULTY IN SUPPORTING
STORM FORMATION...AND THUS POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT AT 10-20 PERCENT
FOR MOST REMAINING AREAS. THE FRONT COULD SPILL THROUGH THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AROUND NOON SATURDAY...INTRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS
DOWNWIND OF CANYONS/GAPS.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA SHOULD DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NV WITH A BRIEF CHANNEL OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN
UP OVER WESTERN NM. THE STORY IN THE EAST COULD BE A RETURN OF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE EAST WITH MOIST UP SLOPE FLOW. THE POPS
HAVE NOT BEEN HOISTED TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ONCE THE CLOSED LOW PUSHES EAST INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS BY MID WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE OVER NM WITH A DEEP PACIFIC NW STORM TAKING SHAPE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS NEAR TERM WILL BE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND WETTING
RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE SOUTH/EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SATURDAY COMBINED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE DRIER NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN THE CARDS WITH RESIDUAL UNSETTLEDNESS AND SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK.

REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
EXISTS. DRIER AIR WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE NORTH SHOULD
MOISTEN SOME...AT LEAST AT THE LOW LEVELS ON FRIDAY THUS RH VALUES
WILL RISE. WETTING RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. MAX VENTILATION SHOULD DROP INTO THE POOR
CATEGORY ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALSO INCLUDE THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE JEMEZ MTNS. CAVEAT IS THAT THERE
IS QUITE A GRADIENT DEPICTED BY THE MODELS SO DONT BE SURPRISED IF
FORECASTED VENT RATES CHANGED ALONG THIS BUFFER AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HRS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS APPEAR TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR IN DEPICTING
A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AND QUITE
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CATALYST FOR THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WOULD BE RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
ODILE PASSAGE...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND A CLOSED LOW ORIGINATING
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE STRONGER PRECIPITATION DAY APPEARS TO
BE SUNDAY BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLOSED PACIFIC LOW
EJECTION FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
DOWN DAY ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL HIGH HUMIDITY SHOULD CONTINUE. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
VENTILATION RATES DONT LOOK ALL THAT LOW ALTHOUGH SOME POORS SHOW UP
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND SE. IMPROVING VENTILATION FOR THE
MOST PART ON SUNDAY.

GFS/ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING DRIER MID LEVEL AIR PUSHING
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH IS BEING
DEPICTED BY BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS LATE WEEK/FOLLOWING WEEKEND AND THE
TIMING/ORIENTATION OF THIS TROUGH PASSAGE WOULD CERTAINLY BE IN
QUESTION. WILL IT CLOSE OFF AND BE SLOWER TO IMPACT THE AREA OR WILL
IT BE MORE PROGRESSIVE. IF IT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THEN LOOK FOR SOME
STRONGER WIND AHEAD OF IT WITH HIGH VENTILATION RATES. TOO EARLY TO
SAY RIGHT NOW.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33








000
FXUS65 KABQ 182339 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
539 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ODILE LEFTOVERS OVER SOUTHERN NM MOVING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS. IFR CIGS AND VIZ IN HEAVIER SHOWERS CONTINUING
OVER SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...WITH SHIFT IN FOCUS TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE FROM 17Z ONWARD FRI DAYTIME. HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL DRIFT INTO TX BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON. TAFS WRITTEN WITH
VCSH STANDING FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...WITH SCT CLOUD GROUP AT LOWEST EXPECTED CIG EXCURSION
DURING SHOWERS. OUT EAST...VCFG STANDING FOR IFR TO LIFR FOG FROM
05Z ONWARD THIS EVE AT LVS AND TCC...WITH LATER ONSET BETWEEN RAIN
SHOWERS FOR ROW. FOG LIFTING AROUND 18Z FRI NOONTIME. BROAD AREAS
OF MT OBSCURATION OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH FRI.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS WE CHASE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHEASTERN...AND EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF NM.
WHILE THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS STILL IN SOUTHWESTERN NM...THE
BEST SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY DISPLACED TO THE
EAST...ESSENTIALLY BLANKETING THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF NM AT
THIS TIME. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BATCH OF STRATIFORM RAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NM...ADVANCING TOWARD CHAVES COUNTY AND
POTENTIALLY SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE CELLS ARE
ALSO FIRING IN CATRON...SOCORRO...AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS IN CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES MAY SUPPRESS
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...LEAVING A LATER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR LOWER RIO GRANDE...GILA...AND SAN FRANCISCO RIVER ZONES...BUT
WILL KEEP REMAINING AREAS AS-IS. THE HEART OF
CHAVES...CURRY...ROOSEVELT...AND DE BACA COUNTIES HAVE NOT
OBSERVED TOO MUCH RAINFALL YET...THUS THEY ARE NOT PRIMED AS MUCH
AS POINTS FARTHER WEST.

INTO FRIDAY THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL WORK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN
NM...WITH A HEALTHY SLUG OF LAGGING MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PLETHORA OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE DUE TO A DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO EXIT EAST
NM AND PUSH INTO WEST TX BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OLD
MEXICO AND A TROUGH CLOSING INTO A LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL BE
DRIVING FEATURES THAT DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY REMNANTS OF ODILE
EXIT.

SHOULD ODILE EXIT AS ADVERTISED...A BACK DOOR FRONT WOULD MOVE
INTO ITS PLACE...BRINGING IN SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS
ALONG THE FRONT WOULD APPEAR TO BE TOO DRY TO SPAWN TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION...BUT IF MOISTURE FROM ODILE IS SLOWER TO
EXIT THEN THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT MAY HELP IGNITE A FEW CELLS.
ELSEWHERE THE DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD POSE DIFFICULTY IN SUPPORTING
STORM FORMATION...AND THUS POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT AT 10-20 PERCENT
FOR MOST REMAINING AREAS. THE FRONT COULD SPILL THROUGH THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AROUND NOON SATURDAY...INTRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS
DOWNWIND OF CANYONS/GAPS.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA SHOULD DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NV WITH A BRIEF CHANNEL OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN
UP OVER WESTERN NM. THE STORY IN THE EAST COULD BE A RETURN OF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE EAST WITH MOIST UP SLOPE FLOW. THE POPS
HAVE NOT BEEN HOISTED TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ONCE THE CLOSED LOW PUSHES EAST INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS BY MID WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE OVER NM WITH A DEEP PACIFIC NW STORM TAKING SHAPE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS NEAR TERM WILL BE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND WETTING
RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE SOUTH/EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SATURDAY COMBINED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE DRIER NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN THE CARDS WITH RESIDUAL UNSETTLEDNESS AND SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK.

REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
EXISTS. DRIER AIR WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE NORTH SHOULD
MOISTEN SOME...AT LEAST AT THE LOW LEVELS ON FRIDAY THUS RH VALUES
WILL RISE. WETTING RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. MAX VENTILATION SHOULD DROP INTO THE POOR
CATEGORY ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALSO INCLUDE THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE JEMEZ MTNS. CAVEAT IS THAT THERE
IS QUITE A GRADIENT DEPICTED BY THE MODELS SO DONT BE SURPRISED IF
FORECASTED VENT RATES CHANGED ALONG THIS BUFFER AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HRS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS APPEAR TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR IN DEPICTING
A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AND QUITE
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CATALYST FOR THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WOULD BE RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
ODILE PASSAGE...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND A CLOSED LOW ORIGINATING
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE STRONGER PRECIPITATION DAY APPEARS TO
BE SUNDAY BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLOSED PACIFIC LOW
EJECTION FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
DOWN DAY ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL HIGH HUMIDITY SHOULD CONTINUE. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
VENTILATION RATES DONT LOOK ALL THAT LOW ALTHOUGH SOME POORS SHOW UP
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND SE. IMPROVING VENTILATION FOR THE
MOST PART ON SUNDAY.

GFS/ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING DRIER MID LEVEL AIR PUSHING
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH IS BEING
DEPICTED BY BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS LATE WEEK/FOLLOWING WEEKEND AND THE
TIMING/ORIENTATION OF THIS TROUGH PASSAGE WOULD CERTAINLY BE IN
QUESTION. WILL IT CLOSE OFF AND BE SLOWER TO IMPACT THE AREA OR WILL
IT BE MORE PROGRESSIVE. IF IT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THEN LOOK FOR SOME
STRONGER WIND AHEAD OF IT WITH HIGH VENTILATION RATES. TOO EARLY TO
SAY RIGHT NOW.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ526-535>540.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524-525.

&&

$$

33/52








000
FXUS65 KABQ 182339 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
539 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
ODILE LEFTOVERS OVER SOUTHERN NM MOVING INTO THE TX PANHANDLE OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS. IFR CIGS AND VIZ IN HEAVIER SHOWERS CONTINUING
OVER SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...WITH SHIFT IN FOCUS TO THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE FROM 17Z ONWARD FRI DAYTIME. HEAVIEST
RAIN WILL DRIFT INTO TX BY LATE FRI AFTERNOON. TAFS WRITTEN WITH
VCSH STANDING FOR EMBEDDED CONVECTION IN ADDITION TO WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS...WITH SCT CLOUD GROUP AT LOWEST EXPECTED CIG EXCURSION
DURING SHOWERS. OUT EAST...VCFG STANDING FOR IFR TO LIFR FOG FROM
05Z ONWARD THIS EVE AT LVS AND TCC...WITH LATER ONSET BETWEEN RAIN
SHOWERS FOR ROW. FOG LIFTING AROUND 18Z FRI NOONTIME. BROAD AREAS
OF MT OBSCURATION OVER SOUTHERN AND EASTERN NM OVERNIGHT AND
THROUGH FRI.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...314 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS WE CHASE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHEASTERN...AND EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF NM.
WHILE THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS STILL IN SOUTHWESTERN NM...THE
BEST SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY DISPLACED TO THE
EAST...ESSENTIALLY BLANKETING THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF NM AT
THIS TIME. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BATCH OF STRATIFORM RAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NM...ADVANCING TOWARD CHAVES COUNTY AND
POTENTIALLY SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE CELLS ARE
ALSO FIRING IN CATRON...SOCORRO...AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS IN CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES MAY SUPPRESS
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...LEAVING A LATER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR LOWER RIO GRANDE...GILA...AND SAN FRANCISCO RIVER ZONES...BUT
WILL KEEP REMAINING AREAS AS-IS. THE HEART OF
CHAVES...CURRY...ROOSEVELT...AND DE BACA COUNTIES HAVE NOT
OBSERVED TOO MUCH RAINFALL YET...THUS THEY ARE NOT PRIMED AS MUCH
AS POINTS FARTHER WEST.

INTO FRIDAY THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL WORK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN
NM...WITH A HEALTHY SLUG OF LAGGING MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PLETHORA OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE DUE TO A DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIR MASS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO EXIT EAST
NM AND PUSH INTO WEST TX BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OLD
MEXICO AND A TROUGH CLOSING INTO A LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL BE
DRIVING FEATURES THAT DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY REMNANTS OF ODILE
EXIT.

SHOULD ODILE EXIT AS ADVERTISED...A BACK DOOR FRONT WOULD MOVE
INTO ITS PLACE...BRINGING IN SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE AIR MASS
ALONG THE FRONT WOULD APPEAR TO BE TOO DRY TO SPAWN TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION...BUT IF MOISTURE FROM ODILE IS SLOWER TO
EXIT THEN THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT MAY HELP IGNITE A FEW CELLS.
ELSEWHERE THE DRIER AIR MASS SHOULD POSE DIFFICULTY IN SUPPORTING
STORM FORMATION...AND THUS POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT AT 10-20 PERCENT
FOR MOST REMAINING AREAS. THE FRONT COULD SPILL THROUGH THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AROUND NOON SATURDAY...INTRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS
DOWNWIND OF CANYONS/GAPS.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA SHOULD DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NV WITH A BRIEF CHANNEL OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN
UP OVER WESTERN NM. THE STORY IN THE EAST COULD BE A RETURN OF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE EAST WITH MOIST UP SLOPE FLOW. THE POPS
HAVE NOT BEEN HOISTED TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ONCE THE CLOSED LOW PUSHES EAST INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS BY MID WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE OVER NM WITH A DEEP PACIFIC NW STORM TAKING SHAPE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS NEAR TERM WILL BE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND WETTING
RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE SOUTH/EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SATURDAY COMBINED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE DRIER NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN THE CARDS WITH RESIDUAL UNSETTLEDNESS AND SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK.

REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
EXISTS. DRIER AIR WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE NORTH SHOULD
MOISTEN SOME...AT LEAST AT THE LOW LEVELS ON FRIDAY THUS RH VALUES
WILL RISE. WETTING RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. MAX VENTILATION SHOULD DROP INTO THE POOR
CATEGORY ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALSO INCLUDE THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE JEMEZ MTNS. CAVEAT IS THAT THERE
IS QUITE A GRADIENT DEPICTED BY THE MODELS SO DONT BE SURPRISED IF
FORECASTED VENT RATES CHANGED ALONG THIS BUFFER AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HRS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS APPEAR TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR IN DEPICTING
A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AND QUITE
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CATALYST FOR THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WOULD BE RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
ODILE PASSAGE...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND A CLOSED LOW ORIGINATING
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE STRONGER PRECIPITATION DAY APPEARS TO
BE SUNDAY BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLOSED PACIFIC LOW
EJECTION FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
DOWN DAY ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL HIGH HUMIDITY SHOULD CONTINUE. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
VENTILATION RATES DONT LOOK ALL THAT LOW ALTHOUGH SOME POORS SHOW UP
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND SE. IMPROVING VENTILATION FOR THE
MOST PART ON SUNDAY.

GFS/ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING DRIER MID LEVEL AIR PUSHING
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH IS BEING
DEPICTED BY BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS LATE WEEK/FOLLOWING WEEKEND AND THE
TIMING/ORIENTATION OF THIS TROUGH PASSAGE WOULD CERTAINLY BE IN
QUESTION. WILL IT CLOSE OFF AND BE SLOWER TO IMPACT THE AREA OR WILL
IT BE MORE PROGRESSIVE. IF IT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THEN LOOK FOR SOME
STRONGER WIND AHEAD OF IT WITH HIGH VENTILATION RATES. TOO EARLY TO
SAY RIGHT NOW.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ526-535>540.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524-525.

&&

$$

33/52







000
FXUS65 KABQ 182114
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
314 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS WE CHASE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHEASTERN...AND EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF NM.
WHILE THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS STILL IN SOUTHWESTERN NM...THE
BEST SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY DISPLACED TO THE
EAST...ESSENTIALLY BLANKETING THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF NM AT
THIS TIME. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BATCH OF STRATIFORM RAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NM...ADVANCING TOWARD CHAVES COUNTY AND
POTENTIALLY SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE CELLS ARE
ALSO FIRING IN CATRON...SOCORRO...AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS IN CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES MAY SUPPRESS
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...LEAVING A LATER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR LOWER RIO GRANDE...GILA...AND SAN FRANCISCO RIVER ZONES...BUT
WILL KEEP REMAINING AREAS AS-IS. THE HEART OF
CHAVES...CURRY...ROOSEVELT...AND DE BACA COUNTIES HAVE NOT
OBSERVED TOO MUCH RAINFALL YET...THUS THEY ARE NOT PRIMED AS MUCH
AS POINTS FARTHER WEST.

INTO FRIDAY THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL WORK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN
NM...WITH A HEALTHY SLUG OF LAGGING MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PLETHORA OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE DUE TO A DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO EXIT EAST
NM AND PUSH INTO WEST TX BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OLD
MEXICO AND A TROUGH CLOSING INTO A LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL BE
DRIVING FEATURES THAT DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY REMNANTS OF ODILE
EXIT.

SHOULD ODILE EXIT AS ADVERTISED...A BACK DOOR FRONT WOULD MOVE
INTO ITS PLACE...BRINGING IN SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS
ALONG THE FRONT WOULD APPEAR TO BE TOO DRY TO SPAWN TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION...BUT IF MOISTURE FROM ODILE IS SLOWER TO
EXIT THEN THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT MAY HELP IGNITE A FEW CELLS.
ELSEWHERE THE DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD POSE DIFFICULTY IN SUPPORTING
STORM FORMATION...AND THUS POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT AT 10-20 PERCENT
FOR MOST REMAINING AREAS. THE FRONT COULD SPILL THROUGH THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AROUND NOON SATURDAY...INTRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS
DOWNWIND OF CANYONS/GAPS.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA SHOULD DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NV WITH A BRIEF CHANNEL OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN
UP OVER WESTERN NM. THE STORY IN THE EAST COULD BE A RETURN OF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE EAST WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. THE POPS
HAVE NOT BEEN HOISTED TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ONCE THE CLOSED LOW PUSHES EAST INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS BY MID WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE OVER NM WITH A DEEP PACIFIC NW STORM TAKING SHAPE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS NEAR TERM WILL BE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND WETTING
RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE SOUTH/EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SATURDAY COMBINED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE DRIER NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN THE CARDS WITH RESIDUAL UNSETTLEDNESS AND SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK.

REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
EXISTS. DRIER AIR WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE NORTH SHOULD
MOISTEN SOME...AT LEAST AT THE LOW LEVELS ON FRIDAY THUS RH VALUES
WILL RISE. WETTING RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. MAX VENTILATION SHOULD DROP INTO THE POOR
CATEGORY ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALSO INCLUDE THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE JEMEZ MTNS. CAVEAT IS THAT THERE
IS QUITE A GRADIENT DEPICTED BY THE MODELS SO DONT BE SURPRISED IF
FORECASTED VENT RATES CHANGED ALONG THIS BUFFER AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HRS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS APPEAR TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR IN DEPICTING
A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AND QUITE
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CATALYST FOR THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WOULD BE RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
ODILE PASSAGE...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND A CLOSED LOW ORIGINATING
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE STRONGER PRECIPITATION DAY APPEARS TO
BE SUNDAY BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLOSED PACIFIC LOW
EJECTION FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
DOWN DAY ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL HIGH HUMIDITY SHOULD CONTINUE. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
VENTILATION RATES DONT LOOK ALL THAT LOW ALTHOUGH SOME POORS SHOW UP
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND SE. IMPROVING VENTILATION FOR THE
MOST PART ON SUNDAY.

GFS/ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING DRIER MID LEVEL AIR PUSHING
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH IS BEING
DEPICTED BY BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS LATE WEEK/FOLLOWING WEEKEND AND THE
TIMING/ORIENTATION OF THIS TROUGH PASSAGE WOULD CERTAINLY BE IN
QUESTION. WILL IT CLOSE OFF AND BE SLOWER TO IMPACT THE AREA OR WILL
IT BE MORE PROGRESSIVE. IF IT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THEN LOOK FOR SOME
STRONGER WIND AHEAD OF IT WITH HIGH VENTILATION RATES. TOO EARLY TO
SAY RIGHT NOW.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FELT ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND EAST. TERMINAL SITES SUCH AS TCC/ROW HAVE THE
STRONGEST POTENTIAL FOR STEADY/HEAVIER RAIN PRODUCING MVFR AND IFR
CIGS/VIS. LVS HAS SOME POTENTIAL WITH A LITTLE LESS POTENTIAL AT
SAF/ABQ AND GUP. FMN SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  55  84  55  87 /  10  10   5   5
DULCE...........................  45  79  46  85 /  20  20  10  20
CUBA............................  50  78  49  82 /  20  30  20  20
GALLUP..........................  50  79  47  83 /  20  10  10  10
EL MORRO........................  49  73  48  78 /  20  20  10  20
GRANTS..........................  49  79  49  81 /  20  20  10  20
QUEMADO.........................  52  73  51  77 /  20  20  20  20
GLENWOOD........................  56  79  55  83 /  50  10  20  20
CHAMA...........................  42  76  40  79 /  20  20  10  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  75  55  80 /  20  20  20  10
PECOS...........................  52  70  51  76 /  60  60  20  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  47  74  46  76 /  20  20  20  10
RED RIVER.......................  44  68  44  68 /  20  30  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  39  69  39  72 /  30  40  20  20
TAOS............................  46  76  49  79 /  20  30  20  10
MORA............................  48  70  48  76 /  50  60  30  20
ESPANOLA........................  53  81  55  85 /  20  20  20  10
SANTA FE........................  54  74  54  79 /  40  30  20  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  54  78  55  83 /  40  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  59  78  59  83 /  40  30  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  60  80  61  85 /  40  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  58  81  58  86 /  30  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  59  80  61  85 /  30  20  20  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  58  80  59  85 /  40  20  20  10
RIO RANCHO......................  59  82  60  87 /  30  20  20  10
SOCORRO.........................  61  82  62  87 /  40  20  20  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  56  77  56  81 /  40  40  20  10
TIJERAS.........................  57  77  56  82 /  40  40  20  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  51  74  49  80 /  60  50  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  54  71  54  76 /  70  60  30  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  56  72  57  77 /  70  50  30  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  60  76  59  80 /  80  40  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  54  71  54  74 /  90  60  40  30
CAPULIN.........................  52  73  52  75 /  20  40  30  20
RATON...........................  50  77  51  80 /  20  40  20  20
SPRINGER........................  53  76  54  81 /  30  50  30  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  50  70  50  78 /  60  60  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  58  76  59  79 /  20  60  40  20
ROY.............................  55  72  57  78 /  40  60  40  20
CONCHAS.........................  61  74  64  82 /  50  70  50  20
SANTA ROSA......................  61  72  62  80 /  70  70  40  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  62  76  64  82 /  60  70  60  20
CLOVIS..........................  62  74  62  79 /  70  70  60  30
PORTALES........................  64  74  62  79 /  70  70  60  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  63  72  63  80 /  80  70  60  30
ROSWELL.........................  66  79  65  83 /  90  70  60  30
PICACHO.........................  61  74  61  77 /  90  60  50  30
ELK.............................  57  72  58  74 /  90  60  50  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ526-535>540.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524-525.

&&

$$

52







000
FXUS65 KABQ 182114
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
314 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE KNOWN AS ODILE HAVE WORKED
INTO NEW MEXICO WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE PUSHING INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO. WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY...WILL CONTINUE TO
SPREAD OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING...EVENTUALLY SHIFTING INTO EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE
LATER TONIGHT. EXPECT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN NEW MEXICO ON FRIDAY AS REMNANT
MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION COVERS THIS HALF OF THE STATE. ALSO...A
FEW STORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY.
EXPECT LESS STORMS ON SATURDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RUNNING CLOSE TO
SEASONAL AVERAGES...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. SOME ADDITIONAL MOISTURE COULD SEEP BACK INTO THE STATE
SUNDAY...LEADING TO SCATTERED STORMS IN MANY PARTS OF THE STATE.

52

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS WE CHASE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE...THE FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL SEEMS TO BE SHIFTING TOWARD THE SOUTH
CENTRAL...SOUTHEASTERN...AND EAST CENTRAL PARTS OF NM.
WHILE THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS STILL IN SOUTHWESTERN NM...THE
BEST SURGE OF DEEP MOISTURE IS CURRENTLY DISPLACED TO THE
EAST...ESSENTIALLY BLANKETING THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF NM AT
THIS TIME. CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS BATCH OF STRATIFORM RAIN
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL NM...ADVANCING TOWARD CHAVES COUNTY AND
POTENTIALLY SOUTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY. ADDITIONAL DISCRETE CELLS ARE
ALSO FIRING IN CATRON...SOCORRO...AND NORTHERN LINCOLN COUNTY.
ABUNDANT CLOUDS IN CURRY AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES MAY SUPPRESS
DAYTIME INSTABILITY...LEAVING A LATER WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY
TONIGHT. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE DECIDED TO EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR LOWER RIO GRANDE...GILA...AND SAN FRANCISCO RIVER ZONES...BUT
WILL KEEP REMAINING AREAS AS-IS. THE HEART OF
CHAVES...CURRY...ROOSEVELT...AND DE BACA COUNTIES HAVE NOT
OBSERVED TOO MUCH RAINFALL YET...THUS THEY ARE NOT PRIMED AS MUCH
AS POINTS FARTHER WEST.

INTO FRIDAY THE REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL WORK TOWARD NORTHEASTERN
NM...WITH A HEALTHY SLUG OF LAGGING MOISTURE OVER MUCH OF THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS WILL BE FAVORED
FOR RAINFALL...SOME OF WHICH WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN A BIT BELOW AVERAGE IN THE EAST FRIDAY DUE TO THE
PLETHORA OF CLOUDS EXPECTED. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE SOMEWHAT
LIMITED ALONG AND WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE DUE TO A DRIER
CONTINENTAL AIRMASS WORKING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS POINT
MODEL CONSENSUS IS FOR THE BULK OF THE PRECIPITATION TO EXIT EAST
NM AND PUSH INTO WEST TX BY FRIDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE OVER OLD
MEXICO AND A TROUGH CLOSING INTO A LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA WILL BE
DRIVING FEATURES THAT DETERMINE HOW QUICKLY REMNANTS OF ODILE
EXIT.

SHOULD ODILE EXIT AS ADVERTISED...A BACK DOOR FRONT WOULD MOVE
INTO ITS PLACE...BRINGING IN SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS TO THE EAST
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES DURING THE DAY SATURDAY. THE AIRMASS
ALONG THE FRONT WOULD APPEAR TO BE TOO DRY TO SPAWN TOO MUCH IN
THE WAY OF CONVECTION...BUT IF MOISTURE FROM ODILE IS SLOWER TO
EXIT THEN THE FORCING ALONG THE FRONT MAY HELP IGNITE A FEW CELLS.
ELSEWHERE THE DRIER AIRMASS SHOULD POSE DIFFICULTY IN SUPPORTING
STORM FORMATION...AND THUS POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT AT 10-20 PERCENT
FOR MOST REMAINING AREAS. THE FRONT COULD SPILL THROUGH THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AROUND NOON SATURDAY...INTRODUCING SOME GUSTY WINDS
DOWNWIND OF CANYONS/GAPS.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH SUNDAY AND THE FIRST PART
OF NEXT WEEK. THE CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHERN CA SHOULD DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD INTO NV WITH A BRIEF CHANNEL OF MOISTURE BEING DRAWN
UP OVER WESTERN NM. THE STORY IN THE EAST COULD BE A RETURN OF
MOISTURE BACK INTO THE EAST WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW. THE POPS
HAVE NOT BEEN HOISTED TERRIBLY HIGH AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR. ONCE THE CLOSED LOW PUSHES EAST INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS BY MID WEEK...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SHOULD MAKE AN
APPEARANCE OVER NM WITH A DEEP PACIFIC NW STORM TAKING SHAPE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN HIGHLIGHTS NEAR TERM WILL BE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND WETTING
RAIN CHANCES FAVORING THE SOUTH/EAST. UNSETTLED WEATHER SHOULD
CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND WITH A MODERATE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SATURDAY COMBINED WITH A CLOSED LOW OVER CALIFORNIA EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY. ATMOSPHERIC
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE DRIER NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT IS IN THE CARDS WITH RESIDUAL UNSETTLEDNESS AND SOME
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM CHANCES EARLY IN THE WEEK.

REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT SOUTHERN AND EASTERN AREAS
THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS IS WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
EXISTS. DRIER AIR WHICH CURRENTLY RESIDES OVER THE NORTH SHOULD
MOISTEN SOME...AT LEAST AT THE LOW LEVELS ON FRIDAY THUS RH VALUES
WILL RISE. WETTING RAIN CHANCES LOOK TO BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG AND
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. MAX VENTILATION SHOULD DROP INTO THE POOR
CATEGORY ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS AND ALSO INCLUDE THE UPPER RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF THE JEMEZ MTNS. CAVEAT IS THAT THERE
IS QUITE A GRADIENT DEPICTED BY THE MODELS SO DONT BE SURPRISED IF
FORECASTED VENT RATES CHANGED ALONG THIS BUFFER AREA DURING THE NEXT
24 HRS.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MODELS APPEAR TO BE PRETTY SIMILAR IN DEPICTING
A CONTINUED UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN INTO THE WEEKEND AND QUITE
POSSIBLY LINGERING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE MAIN CATALYST FOR THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER WOULD BE RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEFT OVER FROM THE
ODILE PASSAGE...BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND A CLOSED LOW ORIGINATING
FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. THE STRONGER PRECIPITATION DAY APPEARS TO
BE SUNDAY BUT THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE CLOSED PACIFIC LOW
EJECTION FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SATURDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF A
DOWN DAY ALTHOUGH RESIDUAL HIGH HUMIDITY SHOULD CONTINUE. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW WETTING PRECIPITATION CHANCES CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.
VENTILATION RATES DONT LOOK ALL THAT LOW ALTHOUGH SOME POORS SHOW UP
SATURDAY ACROSS THE FAR NW AND SE. IMPROVING VENTILATION FOR THE
MOST PART ON SUNDAY.

GFS/ECMWF ARE CONSISTENT WITH SHOWING DRIER MID LEVEL AIR PUSHING
INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA ON TUESDAY AND EVENTUALLY SPREADING SOUTH
AND EASTWARD THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER PACIFIC TROUGH IS BEING
DEPICTED BY BOTH LONG RANGE MODELS LATE WEEK/FOLLOWING WEEKEND AND THE
TIMING/ORIENTATION OF THIS TROUGH PASSAGE WOULD CERTAINLY BE IN
QUESTION. WILL IT CLOSE OFF AND BE SLOWER TO IMPACT THE AREA OR WILL
IT BE MORE PROGRESSIVE. IF IT IS MORE PROGRESSIVE THEN LOOK FOR SOME
STRONGER WIND AHEAD OF IT WITH HIGH VENTILATION RATES. TOO EARLY TO
SAY RIGHT NOW.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
REMNANTS OF ODILE WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN IMPACTS WILL BE FELT ACROSS
THE SOUTH AND EAST. TERMINAL SITES SUCH AS TCC/ROW HAVE THE
STRONGEST POTENTIAL FOR STEADY/HEAVIER RAIN PRODUCING MVFR AND IFR
CIGS/VIS. LVS HAS SOME POTENTIAL WITH A LITTLE LESS POTENTIAL AT
SAF/ABQ AND GUP. FMN SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  55  84  55  87 /  10  10   5   5
DULCE...........................  45  79  46  85 /  20  20  10  20
CUBA............................  50  78  49  82 /  20  30  20  20
GALLUP..........................  50  79  47  83 /  20  10  10  10
EL MORRO........................  49  73  48  78 /  20  20  10  20
GRANTS..........................  49  79  49  81 /  20  20  10  20
QUEMADO.........................  52  73  51  77 /  20  20  20  20
GLENWOOD........................  56  79  55  83 /  50  10  20  20
CHAMA...........................  42  76  40  79 /  20  20  10  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  75  55  80 /  20  20  20  10
PECOS...........................  52  70  51  76 /  60  60  20  20
CERRO/QUESTA....................  47  74  46  76 /  20  20  20  10
RED RIVER.......................  44  68  44  68 /  20  30  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  39  69  39  72 /  30  40  20  20
TAOS............................  46  76  49  79 /  20  30  20  10
MORA............................  48  70  48  76 /  50  60  30  20
ESPANOLA........................  53  81  55  85 /  20  20  20  10
SANTA FE........................  54  74  54  79 /  40  30  20  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  54  78  55  83 /  40  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  59  78  59  83 /  40  30  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  60  80  61  85 /  40  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  58  81  58  86 /  30  20  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  59  80  61  85 /  30  20  20  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  58  80  59  85 /  40  20  20  10
RIO RANCHO......................  59  82  60  87 /  30  20  20  10
SOCORRO.........................  61  82  62  87 /  40  20  20  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  56  77  56  81 /  40  40  20  10
TIJERAS.........................  57  77  56  82 /  40  40  20  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  51  74  49  80 /  60  50  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  54  71  54  76 /  70  60  30  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  56  72  57  77 /  70  50  30  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  60  76  59  80 /  80  40  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  54  71  54  74 /  90  60  40  30
CAPULIN.........................  52  73  52  75 /  20  40  30  20
RATON...........................  50  77  51  80 /  20  40  20  20
SPRINGER........................  53  76  54  81 /  30  50  30  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  50  70  50  78 /  60  60  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  58  76  59  79 /  20  60  40  20
ROY.............................  55  72  57  78 /  40  60  40  20
CONCHAS.........................  61  74  64  82 /  50  70  50  20
SANTA ROSA......................  61  72  62  80 /  70  70  40  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  62  76  64  82 /  60  70  60  20
CLOVIS..........................  62  74  62  79 /  70  70  60  30
PORTALES........................  64  74  62  79 /  70  70  60  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  63  72  63  80 /  80  70  60  30
ROSWELL.........................  66  79  65  83 /  90  70  60  30
PICACHO.........................  61  74  61  77 /  90  60  50  30
ELK.............................  57  72  58  74 /  90  60  50  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ526-535>540.

FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ508-509-520-524-525.

&&

$$

52








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