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000
FXUS65 KABQ 221152 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
452 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTN OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN AND EAST SLOPES OF CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. AFTN PEAK GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 25KT AT KTCC AND
KLVS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ALONG MTN TOPS. WEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS WHERE
GUSTS MAY REACH 50 TO 60 KT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN VALLEY AND EASTERN PLAINS LOCATIONS
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KT. A FEW RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE NW AND NC MOUNTAINS AND
CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL MT OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...309 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL DROP TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PLUNGES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE STATE. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WITH GUSTS MAY TOP 60 MPH. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY. A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH LESS WIND IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER TO THE STATE
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE...MUCH
MORE SUN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP TODAY. HAVE WARMED UP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. NEARLY ALL AREAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY. THIS SHOULD BE ENJOYED...AS MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY FOR TOMORROW AND MONDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER NM SUNDAY IN FAST MOVING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY PICK UP TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGH
TERRAIN AND AREAS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. WITH 700
MB WIND SPEEDS AOA 50KT...A FEW HIGH WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY. MOUNTAIN
WAVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO LIKELY OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAIN WAVES MAY CRASH
TO THE SURFACE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BETWEEN RATON AND LAS
VEGAS...AS WELL AS ALONG I-40 NEAR CLINES CORNERS. SUDDEN AND
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

STRONG WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY DURING THE DAY AS
A COLD FRONT PLUNGES IN FROM NW TO SE AND SOME MIXING OCCURS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE
HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING...AND START IT A FEW HOURS
EARLIER...AND HAVE ALSO HOISTED WIND ADVISORIES TONIGHT FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NOT IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING...AND ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS. WILL ALSO ADD WIND ADVISORIES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY
FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND THE NW PLATEAU.

IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND EVEN A CHANCE OF
SNOW WILL BE FOUND FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. IN GENERAL...1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...THOUGH THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
SANGRES MAY SEE 4 OR SO INCHES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW WILL SLIDE OVER THE STATE ON MONDAY.
TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES FURTHER...BUT WINDS WONT BE AS STRONG.
THAT SAID...IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS MOST CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS...RESULTING IN WIND CHILL VALUES ONLY IN THE LOW 20S
TO LOW 30S IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTN. NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY SEE A
FEW MORE LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT
IS EXPECTED.

THOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE PERTURBATIONS MID WEEK IN THE FLOW
ALOFT...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A RIDGE TO DEVELOP BY LATE WEEK.
THUS...AFTER MONDAY...DRY WX IS FORECAST WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY...THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
PLAINS...BUT THE EC AND CMC SHOW NOTHING OF IT. STAY TUNED.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...STRONG WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

ONE STORM PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY WHILE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH RACES TOWARD US FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS IS THE
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS LATER TODAY AND STRONG
WINDS TO MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON MONDAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE SYSTEMS. LESS WIND AND A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW
FROM TUESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER WEATHER IN THE EAST FOR BLACK FRIDAY.

ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST AND NEAR
NORMAL IN THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...THEIR EAST SLOPES AND ONTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 20S IN THE LOWLANDS AND 30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. VENTILATION WILL BE NOTICEABLY BETTER THAN RECENT DAYS
WITH FAIR TO VERY GOOD RATES.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH STRONG TO HIGH WINDS
BY MIDNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. A STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE MAY BRING DAMAGING WINDS TO THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS...STARTING AS RAIN IN THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU. RH RECOVERIES WILL FAIR IN THE EAST AND GOOD TO
EXCELLENT IN THE WEST.

THE STRONG TO HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...MIXING DOWN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL VALLEYS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 10 TO 20 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE
MIN RH VALUES COME UP 20 TO 30 PERCENT. ALL THE WIND AND RATHER HIGH
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN EXCELLENT VENT RATES VIRTUALLY AREA
WIDE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF
SUNDAYS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL CHILLY AIR WILL MAKE MONDAY THE COOLEST
DAY OF FORECAST PERIOD. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE WEST
AND CENTRAL AREAS...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. VENT
RATES WILL BE MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT MONDAY.

DRY AND MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH A WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
BUT THEN NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD INVADE THE EAST LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR BY FRIDAY. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY ASIDE FROM A FEW RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE SANGRES AND THEIR EAST SLOPES ON THANKSGIVING. VENT RATES
WILL TAKE A HIT NEXT WEEK WITH FAIR TO POOR RATES IN THE NORTH AND
WEST TUESDAY AND MOST AREAS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ502-504>508-511-512-522-524-527>529-533-539-540.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501-518>520-525.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-521-523-526.

&&

$$

40





000
FXUS65 KABQ 221152 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
452 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF
SITES. WINDS WILL BEGIN INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST THIS AFTN OVER
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN AND EAST SLOPES OF CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. AFTN PEAK GUSTS WILL BE AROUND 25KT AT KTCC AND
KLVS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS ALONG MTN TOPS. WEST WINDS WILL
CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT IN THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS WHERE
GUSTS MAY REACH 50 TO 60 KT...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
SUNDAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE IN VALLEY AND EASTERN PLAINS LOCATIONS
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OF 40 TO 45 KT. A FEW RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT OVER THE NW AND NC MOUNTAINS AND
CONTINUE SUNDAY WITH OCCASIONAL MT OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...309 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL DROP TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PLUNGES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE STATE. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WITH GUSTS MAY TOP 60 MPH. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY. A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH LESS WIND IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER TO THE STATE
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE...MUCH
MORE SUN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP TODAY. HAVE WARMED UP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. NEARLY ALL AREAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY. THIS SHOULD BE ENJOYED...AS MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY FOR TOMORROW AND MONDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER NM SUNDAY IN FAST MOVING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY PICK UP TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGH
TERRAIN AND AREAS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. WITH 700
MB WIND SPEEDS AOA 50KT...A FEW HIGH WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY. MOUNTAIN
WAVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO LIKELY OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAIN WAVES MAY CRASH
TO THE SURFACE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BETWEEN RATON AND LAS
VEGAS...AS WELL AS ALONG I-40 NEAR CLINES CORNERS. SUDDEN AND
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

STRONG WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY DURING THE DAY AS
A COLD FRONT PLUNGES IN FROM NW TO SE AND SOME MIXING OCCURS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE
HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING...AND START IT A FEW HOURS
EARLIER...AND HAVE ALSO HOISTED WIND ADVISORIES TONIGHT FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NOT IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING...AND ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS. WILL ALSO ADD WIND ADVISORIES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY
FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND THE NW PLATEAU.

IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND EVEN A CHANCE OF
SNOW WILL BE FOUND FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. IN GENERAL...1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...THOUGH THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
SANGRES MAY SEE 4 OR SO INCHES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW WILL SLIDE OVER THE STATE ON MONDAY.
TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES FURTHER...BUT WINDS WONT BE AS STRONG.
THAT SAID...IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS MOST CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS...RESULTING IN WIND CHILL VALUES ONLY IN THE LOW 20S
TO LOW 30S IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTN. NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY SEE A
FEW MORE LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT
IS EXPECTED.

THOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE PERTURBATIONS MID WEEK IN THE FLOW
ALOFT...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A RIDGE TO DEVELOP BY LATE WEEK.
THUS...AFTER MONDAY...DRY WX IS FORECAST WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY...THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
PLAINS...BUT THE EC AND CMC SHOW NOTHING OF IT. STAY TUNED.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...STRONG WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

ONE STORM PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY WHILE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH RACES TOWARD US FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS IS THE
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS LATER TODAY AND STRONG
WINDS TO MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON MONDAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE SYSTEMS. LESS WIND AND A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW
FROM TUESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER WEATHER IN THE EAST FOR BLACK FRIDAY.

ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST AND NEAR
NORMAL IN THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...THEIR EAST SLOPES AND ONTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 20S IN THE LOWLANDS AND 30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. VENTILATION WILL BE NOTICEABLY BETTER THAN RECENT DAYS
WITH FAIR TO VERY GOOD RATES.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH STRONG TO HIGH WINDS
BY MIDNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. A STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE MAY BRING DAMAGING WINDS TO THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS...STARTING AS RAIN IN THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU. RH RECOVERIES WILL FAIR IN THE EAST AND GOOD TO
EXCELLENT IN THE WEST.

THE STRONG TO HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...MIXING DOWN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL VALLEYS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 10 TO 20 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE
MIN RH VALUES COME UP 20 TO 30 PERCENT. ALL THE WIND AND RATHER HIGH
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN EXCELLENT VENT RATES VIRTUALLY AREA
WIDE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF
SUNDAYS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL CHILLY AIR WILL MAKE MONDAY THE COOLEST
DAY OF FORECAST PERIOD. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE WEST
AND CENTRAL AREAS...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. VENT
RATES WILL BE MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT MONDAY.

DRY AND MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH A WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
BUT THEN NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD INVADE THE EAST LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR BY FRIDAY. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY ASIDE FROM A FEW RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE SANGRES AND THEIR EAST SLOPES ON THANKSGIVING. VENT RATES
WILL TAKE A HIT NEXT WEEK WITH FAIR TO POOR RATES IN THE NORTH AND
WEST TUESDAY AND MOST AREAS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ502-504>508-511-512-522-524-527>529-533-539-540.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501-518>520-525.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-521-523-526.

&&

$$

40






000
FXUS65 KABQ 221009
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
309 AM MST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL DROP TONIGHT AND
SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT PLUNGES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE STATE. STRONG TO DAMAGING WINDS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT THROUGH
SUNDAY FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN WITH GUSTS MAY TOP 60 MPH. BLUSTERY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE ON MONDAY. A GRADUAL WARM UP WITH LESS WIND IS ON TAP FOR
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS RIDGING SLOWLY BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AS THE STORM SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER TO THE STATE
YESTERDAY CONTINUES TO PUSH EASTWARD WELL SOUTH OF THE STATE...MUCH
MORE SUN AND WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE ON TAP TODAY. HAVE WARMED UP
TEMPS A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND
DOWNSLOPE WINDS. NEARLY ALL AREAS SHOULD BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL
TODAY. THIS SHOULD BE ENJOYED...AS MUCH COOLER TEMPS AND BLUSTERY
CONDITIONS ARE ON THE WAY FOR TOMORROW AND MONDAY.

A SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE OVER NM SUNDAY IN FAST MOVING NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT. WINDS WILL ACTUALLY PICK UP TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER HIGH
TERRAIN AND AREAS JUST DOWNSTREAM OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. WITH 700
MB WIND SPEEDS AOA 50KT...A FEW HIGH WIND GUSTS ARE LIKELY. MOUNTAIN
WAVE ACTIVITY IS ALSO LIKELY OVERNIGHT. MOUNTAIN WAVES MAY CRASH
TO THE SURFACE ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR BETWEEN RATON AND LAS
VEGAS...AS WELL AS ALONG I-40 NEAR CLINES CORNERS. SUDDEN AND
ERRATIC WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

STRONG WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD ON SUNDAY DURING THE DAY AS
A COLD FRONT PLUNGES IN FROM NW TO SE AND SOME MIXING OCCURS WITH
DAYTIME HEATING. WITH ALL THIS IN MIND...HAVE DECIDED TO UPGRADE THE
HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING...AND START IT A FEW HOURS
EARLIER...AND HAVE ALSO HOISTED WIND ADVISORIES TONIGHT FOR THE
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS NOT IN THE HIGH WIND WARNING...AND ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS. WILL ALSO ADD WIND ADVISORIES DURING THE DAYTIME SUNDAY
FOR THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND THE NW PLATEAU.

IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...MUCH COLDER TEMPS AND EVEN A CHANCE OF
SNOW WILL BE FOUND FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY. AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW MAY SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. IN GENERAL...1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED...THOUGH THE HIGHEST PEAKS OF THE
SANGRES MAY SEE 4 OR SO INCHES.

ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IN NW FLOW WILL SLIDE OVER THE STATE ON MONDAY.
TEMPS WILL DROP A FEW DEGREES FURTHER...BUT WINDS WONT BE AS STRONG.
THAT SAID...IT WILL STILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS MOST CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS...RESULTING IN WIND CHILL VALUES ONLY IN THE LOW 20S
TO LOW 30S IN THE MIDDLE OF THE AFTN. NORTHERN MOUNTAINS MAY SEE A
FEW MORE LIGHT SHOWERS FROM THIS SHORTWAVE...BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT
IS EXPECTED.

THOUGH THERE MAY BE A FEW MORE PERTURBATIONS MID WEEK IN THE FLOW
ALOFT...THE TREND WILL BE FOR A RIDGE TO DEVELOP BY LATE WEEK.
THUS...AFTER MONDAY...DRY WX IS FORECAST WITH A WARMING TREND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. BY LATE THURSDAY AND EARLY
FRIDAY...THE GFS SHOWS ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE
PLAINS...BUT THE EC AND CMC SHOW NOTHING OF IT. STAY TUNED.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...STRONG WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

ONE STORM PASSING SOUTH OF THE AREA TODAY WHILE THE NEXT SHORT WAVE
TROUGH RACES TOWARD US FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS IS THE
SYSTEM THAT WILL BRING INCREASING WINDS LATER TODAY AND STRONG
WINDS TO MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. ANOTHER SHORT WAVE
TROUGH WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON MONDAY. MUCH COOLER WEATHER WILL
ACCOMPANY THESE SYSTEMS. LESS WIND AND A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW
FROM TUESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATER THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH MUCH
COOLER WEATHER IN THE EAST FOR BLACK FRIDAY.

ONE MORE DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST AND NEAR
NORMAL IN THE WEST. WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...THEIR EAST SLOPES AND ONTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS.
MIN RH VALUES WILL DROP TO THE 20S IN THE LOWLANDS AND 30S IN THE
MOUNTAINS. VENTILATION WILL BE NOTICEABLY BETTER THAN RECENT DAYS
WITH FAIR TO VERY GOOD RATES.

WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TONIGHT WITH STRONG TO HIGH WINDS
BY MIDNIGHT OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN
HIGHLANDS. A STRONG MOUNTAIN WAVE MAY BRING DAMAGING WINDS TO THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS...STARTING AS RAIN IN THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU. RH RECOVERIES WILL FAIR IN THE EAST AND GOOD TO
EXCELLENT IN THE WEST.

THE STRONG TO HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY...MIXING DOWN TO THE
NORTHWEST AND CENTRAL VALLEYS. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
OVER THE NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP 10 TO 20 DEGREES OVER MUCH OF THE AREA WHILE
MIN RH VALUES COME UP 20 TO 30 PERCENT. ALL THE WIND AND RATHER HIGH
MIXING HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN EXCELLENT VENT RATES VIRTUALLY AREA
WIDE.

ANOTHER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW ON THE HEELS OF
SUNDAYS SYSTEM. ADDITIONAL CHILLY AIR WILL MAKE MONDAY THE COOLEST
DAY OF FORECAST PERIOD. LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL FAVOR THE WEST
AND CENTRAL AREAS...BUT NOT AS EXTREME AS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. VENT
RATES WILL BE MOSTLY GOOD TO EXCELLENT MONDAY.

DRY AND MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY INTO THANKSGIVING
DAY WITH A WARMING TREND. HIGHS WILL STILL BE BELOW NORMAL TUESDAY
BUT THEN NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY. A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD INVADE THE EAST LATE THURSDAY OR THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH COOLER AIR BY FRIDAY. TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY ASIDE FROM A FEW RAIN AND HIGH ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE SANGRES AND THEIR EAST SLOPES ON THANKSGIVING. VENT RATES
WILL TAKE A HIT NEXT WEEK WITH FAIR TO POOR RATES IN THE NORTH AND
WEST TUESDAY AND MOST AREAS FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BEGIN INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST BY SAT AFTN...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND AREAS ALONG
AND E OF THE CENTRAL MTS. AFTN PEAK GUSTS WILL BE BETWEEN 25 AND
30KTS AT KTCC AND KLVS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ALONG
MTN TOPS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE WINDS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...AS WNW FLOW
INCREASES ALOFT. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE SUNDAY.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  53  29  43  16 /   0  10   5   0
DULCE...........................  48  23  40   9 /   0  20  20   5
CUBA............................  47  23  36  10 /   0  10  10   5
GALLUP..........................  53  26  41   8 /   0   5  10   0
EL MORRO........................  50  24  40  10 /   0   5  10   0
GRANTS..........................  54  27  43  11 /   0   5   5   0
QUEMADO.........................  51  30  42  13 /   0   0   5   0
GLENWOOD........................  64  30  58  23 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  45  21  38   3 /   0  30  30  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  48  31  38  19 /   0   5  10   0
PECOS...........................  49  30  39  16 /   0   5  10   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  45  21  36   7 /   0  10  20  10
RED RIVER.......................  43  19  28   0 /   0  10  40  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  45  15  34  -7 /   0  10  30  20
TAOS............................  46  22  37   8 /   0  10  20  10
MORA............................  50  29  40  14 /   0   5  20  10
ESPANOLA........................  52  28  42  19 /   0   5   5   0
SANTA FE........................  49  31  39  18 /   0   5  10   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  52  28  42  15 /   0   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  55  34  47  23 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  57  35  50  24 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  58  32  51  20 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  57  33  49  21 /   0   0   5   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  59  30  50  17 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  58  33  49  22 /   0   0   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  64  34  55  23 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  52  30  40  16 /   0   0   5   0
TIJERAS.........................  54  32  46  19 /   0   0   5   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  51  25  44   6 /   0   0   5   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  52  30  43  14 /   0   0   5   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  53  33  45  19 /   0   0   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  57  34  51  22 /   5   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  56  36  49  21 /   5   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  58  30  42  14 /   0   0  20  10
RATON...........................  57  28  44  12 /   0   0  20  10
SPRINGER........................  58  29  45  12 /   0   0  20  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  36  47  14 /   0   0  10  10
CLAYTON.........................  66  36  48  22 /   0   0  20  10
ROY.............................  62  32  47  17 /   0   0  20  10
CONCHAS.........................  65  39  54  25 /   0   0  10  10
SANTA ROSA......................  65  40  55  24 /   5   0   5  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  69  38  55  23 /   5   0  10  10
CLOVIS..........................  66  38  55  23 /   5   0   5   5
PORTALES........................  67  40  57  24 /  10   0   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  67  39  57  24 /   5   0   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  67  38  68  26 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  64  39  57  25 /   5   0   0   0
ELK.............................  61  38  53  25 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ502-504>508-511-512-522-524-527>529-533-539-540.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501-518>520-525.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-521-523-526.

&&

$$

34








000
FXUS65 KABQ 220526 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1026 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BEGIN INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST BY SAT AFTN...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND AREAS ALONG
AND E OF THE CENTRAL MTS. AFTN PEAK GUSTS WILL BE BETWEEN 25 AND
30KTS AT KTCC AND KLVS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ALONG
MTN TOPS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE WINDS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...AS WNW FLOW
INCREASES ALOFT. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE SUNDAY.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HIGH CLOUDS TO THE REGION BUT LITTLE ELSE OVERNIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM
SLIDES EASTWARD INTO WEST TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ALL AREAS SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A TRAILING STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THIS LOW SEWD
INTO MEXICO OVERNIGHT. LEFT SLIM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS FOR LATE TONIGHT BUT SUSPECT THAT THE DRY
MID AND LOW LEVEL WILL MAKE IT RATHER TOUGH FOR RAIN TO REACH THE SFC.

ALL EYES THEN TURN TO TWO VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS IN THE
DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT HEADED TOWARD NM SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG W-NW WINDS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EWD TO THE NE AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
INTERSTATE 25 FROM LAS VEGAS TO RATON LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG CROSS WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
MOUNTAIN WAVE SURFACING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NAM12 CROSS SECTION
INDICATING THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WILL
BE SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A CRITICAL/STABLE LAYER NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS
STRONGEST. NAM12 FORECASTING 65KTS OF CROSS BARRIER FLOW AT 700 MB
09Z SUNDAY JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO CREST-LINE JUST AHEAD OF
THE SFC COLD FRONT. STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT. ISSUED HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AS A
RESULT. COLDER AIR WILL PUSH RAPIDLY THROUGH NW NM SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
NW WINDS RETURN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT NOT AS AS STRONG.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY. ECMWF NOW IN LINE WITH THE GFS FOR
THANKSGIVING AND BLACK FRIDAY. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS EWD
FROM THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RECENT MERGING
OF AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH OF
HAWAII HAVE THROWN QUITE THE WRINKLE IN MODEL JET STREAM
FORECASTS. ADDITIONALLY...A NEW FLARE UP OF CONVECTION IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MAY THROW MORE FLIES IN THE OINTMENT. SUSPECT
SEVERAL MORE FORECAST SOLUTIONS WILL EMERGE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS BEFORE SETTLING ON SOMETHING SO UNFORTUNATELY...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR TURKEY DAY AND BEYOND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

A SHORT-LIVED WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HUMIDITY RECOVERY TRENDING DOWN...ALTHOUGH STILL FAIR TO GOOD WITH
SOME EXCELLENT RECOVERY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SATURDAY`S HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL CENTRAL AND
WEST...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE UPTREND OVER THE WEEKEND...AS WILL VENTILATION
WITH EXCELLENT RATES FORECAST SUNDAY. WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY
MID DAY SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIND WILL
ALSO FORCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY...
WITH SOME WETTING PRECIPITATION (ACCUMULATING SNOW) POSSIBLE ABOVE
9000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A DOWNTREND SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
BELOW NORMAL...THEN CONTINUE BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK PER THE
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS BACKED-OFF OF
ON AN END OF THE WORK-WEEK STORM AND NOW SHOWS WEAK RIDGING GIVING
WAY TO WEAK ZONAL FLOW BY FRIDAY...AS DOES THE GFS. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO TREND DOWN GOING INTO MID WEEK WITH COLD AIR REMAINING IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK IF THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WORK-OUT.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-521-523-526.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 220526 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1026 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BEGIN INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST BY SAT AFTN...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND AREAS ALONG
AND E OF THE CENTRAL MTS. AFTN PEAK GUSTS WILL BE BETWEEN 25 AND
30KTS AT KTCC AND KLVS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ALONG
MTN TOPS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE WINDS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...AS WNW FLOW
INCREASES ALOFT. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE SUNDAY.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HIGH CLOUDS TO THE REGION BUT LITTLE ELSE OVERNIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM
SLIDES EASTWARD INTO WEST TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ALL AREAS SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A TRAILING STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THIS LOW SEWD
INTO MEXICO OVERNIGHT. LEFT SLIM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS FOR LATE TONIGHT BUT SUSPECT THAT THE DRY
MID AND LOW LEVEL WILL MAKE IT RATHER TOUGH FOR RAIN TO REACH THE SFC.

ALL EYES THEN TURN TO TWO VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS IN THE
DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT HEADED TOWARD NM SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG W-NW WINDS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EWD TO THE NE AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
INTERSTATE 25 FROM LAS VEGAS TO RATON LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG CROSS WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
MOUNTAIN WAVE SURFACING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NAM12 CROSS SECTION
INDICATING THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WILL
BE SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A CRITICAL/STABLE LAYER NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS
STRONGEST. NAM12 FORECASTING 65KTS OF CROSS BARRIER FLOW AT 700 MB
09Z SUNDAY JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO CREST-LINE JUST AHEAD OF
THE SFC COLD FRONT. STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT. ISSUED HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AS A
RESULT. COLDER AIR WILL PUSH RAPIDLY THROUGH NW NM SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
NW WINDS RETURN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT NOT AS AS STRONG.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY. ECMWF NOW IN LINE WITH THE GFS FOR
THANKSGIVING AND BLACK FRIDAY. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS EWD
FROM THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RECENT MERGING
OF AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH OF
HAWAII HAVE THROWN QUITE THE WRINKLE IN MODEL JET STREAM
FORECASTS. ADDITIONALLY...A NEW FLARE UP OF CONVECTION IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MAY THROW MORE FLIES IN THE OINTMENT. SUSPECT
SEVERAL MORE FORECAST SOLUTIONS WILL EMERGE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS BEFORE SETTLING ON SOMETHING SO UNFORTUNATELY...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR TURKEY DAY AND BEYOND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

A SHORT-LIVED WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HUMIDITY RECOVERY TRENDING DOWN...ALTHOUGH STILL FAIR TO GOOD WITH
SOME EXCELLENT RECOVERY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SATURDAY`S HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL CENTRAL AND
WEST...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE UPTREND OVER THE WEEKEND...AS WILL VENTILATION
WITH EXCELLENT RATES FORECAST SUNDAY. WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY
MID DAY SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIND WILL
ALSO FORCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY...
WITH SOME WETTING PRECIPITATION (ACCUMULATING SNOW) POSSIBLE ABOVE
9000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A DOWNTREND SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
BELOW NORMAL...THEN CONTINUE BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK PER THE
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS BACKED-OFF OF
ON AN END OF THE WORK-WEEK STORM AND NOW SHOWS WEAK RIDGING GIVING
WAY TO WEAK ZONAL FLOW BY FRIDAY...AS DOES THE GFS. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO TREND DOWN GOING INTO MID WEEK WITH COLD AIR REMAINING IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK IF THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WORK-OUT.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-521-523-526.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 220526 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1026 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BEGIN INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST BY SAT AFTN...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND AREAS ALONG
AND E OF THE CENTRAL MTS. AFTN PEAK GUSTS WILL BE BETWEEN 25 AND
30KTS AT KTCC AND KLVS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ALONG
MTN TOPS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE WINDS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...AS WNW FLOW
INCREASES ALOFT. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE SUNDAY.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HIGH CLOUDS TO THE REGION BUT LITTLE ELSE OVERNIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM
SLIDES EASTWARD INTO WEST TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ALL AREAS SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A TRAILING STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THIS LOW SEWD
INTO MEXICO OVERNIGHT. LEFT SLIM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS FOR LATE TONIGHT BUT SUSPECT THAT THE DRY
MID AND LOW LEVEL WILL MAKE IT RATHER TOUGH FOR RAIN TO REACH THE SFC.

ALL EYES THEN TURN TO TWO VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS IN THE
DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT HEADED TOWARD NM SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG W-NW WINDS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EWD TO THE NE AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
INTERSTATE 25 FROM LAS VEGAS TO RATON LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG CROSS WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
MOUNTAIN WAVE SURFACING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NAM12 CROSS SECTION
INDICATING THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WILL
BE SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A CRITICAL/STABLE LAYER NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS
STRONGEST. NAM12 FORECASTING 65KTS OF CROSS BARRIER FLOW AT 700 MB
09Z SUNDAY JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO CREST-LINE JUST AHEAD OF
THE SFC COLD FRONT. STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT. ISSUED HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AS A
RESULT. COLDER AIR WILL PUSH RAPIDLY THROUGH NW NM SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
NW WINDS RETURN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT NOT AS AS STRONG.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY. ECMWF NOW IN LINE WITH THE GFS FOR
THANKSGIVING AND BLACK FRIDAY. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS EWD
FROM THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RECENT MERGING
OF AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH OF
HAWAII HAVE THROWN QUITE THE WRINKLE IN MODEL JET STREAM
FORECASTS. ADDITIONALLY...A NEW FLARE UP OF CONVECTION IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MAY THROW MORE FLIES IN THE OINTMENT. SUSPECT
SEVERAL MORE FORECAST SOLUTIONS WILL EMERGE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS BEFORE SETTLING ON SOMETHING SO UNFORTUNATELY...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR TURKEY DAY AND BEYOND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

A SHORT-LIVED WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HUMIDITY RECOVERY TRENDING DOWN...ALTHOUGH STILL FAIR TO GOOD WITH
SOME EXCELLENT RECOVERY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SATURDAY`S HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL CENTRAL AND
WEST...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE UPTREND OVER THE WEEKEND...AS WILL VENTILATION
WITH EXCELLENT RATES FORECAST SUNDAY. WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY
MID DAY SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIND WILL
ALSO FORCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY...
WITH SOME WETTING PRECIPITATION (ACCUMULATING SNOW) POSSIBLE ABOVE
9000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A DOWNTREND SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
BELOW NORMAL...THEN CONTINUE BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK PER THE
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS BACKED-OFF OF
ON AN END OF THE WORK-WEEK STORM AND NOW SHOWS WEAK RIDGING GIVING
WAY TO WEAK ZONAL FLOW BY FRIDAY...AS DOES THE GFS. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO TREND DOWN GOING INTO MID WEEK WITH COLD AIR REMAINING IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK IF THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WORK-OUT.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-521-523-526.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 220526 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1026 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL
BEGIN INCREASING OUT OF THE WEST BY SAT AFTN...MAINLY ACROSS THE
WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN...THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND AREAS ALONG
AND E OF THE CENTRAL MTS. AFTN PEAK GUSTS WILL BE BETWEEN 25 AND
30KTS AT KTCC AND KLVS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMTS POSSIBLE ALONG
MTN TOPS. GRADUAL STRENGTHENING OF THE WINDS IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN...AS WNW FLOW
INCREASES ALOFT. STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED AREA WIDE SUNDAY.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HIGH CLOUDS TO THE REGION BUT LITTLE ELSE OVERNIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM
SLIDES EASTWARD INTO WEST TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ALL AREAS SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A TRAILING STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THIS LOW SEWD
INTO MEXICO OVERNIGHT. LEFT SLIM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS FOR LATE TONIGHT BUT SUSPECT THAT THE DRY
MID AND LOW LEVEL WILL MAKE IT RATHER TOUGH FOR RAIN TO REACH THE SFC.

ALL EYES THEN TURN TO TWO VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS IN THE
DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT HEADED TOWARD NM SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG W-NW WINDS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EWD TO THE NE AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
INTERSTATE 25 FROM LAS VEGAS TO RATON LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG CROSS WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
MOUNTAIN WAVE SURFACING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NAM12 CROSS SECTION
INDICATING THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WILL
BE SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A CRITICAL/STABLE LAYER NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS
STRONGEST. NAM12 FORECASTING 65KTS OF CROSS BARRIER FLOW AT 700 MB
09Z SUNDAY JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO CREST-LINE JUST AHEAD OF
THE SFC COLD FRONT. STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT. ISSUED HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AS A
RESULT. COLDER AIR WILL PUSH RAPIDLY THROUGH NW NM SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
NW WINDS RETURN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT NOT AS AS STRONG.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY. ECMWF NOW IN LINE WITH THE GFS FOR
THANKSGIVING AND BLACK FRIDAY. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS EWD
FROM THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RECENT MERGING
OF AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH OF
HAWAII HAVE THROWN QUITE THE WRINKLE IN MODEL JET STREAM
FORECASTS. ADDITIONALLY...A NEW FLARE UP OF CONVECTION IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MAY THROW MORE FLIES IN THE OINTMENT. SUSPECT
SEVERAL MORE FORECAST SOLUTIONS WILL EMERGE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS BEFORE SETTLING ON SOMETHING SO UNFORTUNATELY...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR TURKEY DAY AND BEYOND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

A SHORT-LIVED WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HUMIDITY RECOVERY TRENDING DOWN...ALTHOUGH STILL FAIR TO GOOD WITH
SOME EXCELLENT RECOVERY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SATURDAY`S HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL CENTRAL AND
WEST...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE UPTREND OVER THE WEEKEND...AS WILL VENTILATION
WITH EXCELLENT RATES FORECAST SUNDAY. WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY
MID DAY SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIND WILL
ALSO FORCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY...
WITH SOME WETTING PRECIPITATION (ACCUMULATING SNOW) POSSIBLE ABOVE
9000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A DOWNTREND SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
BELOW NORMAL...THEN CONTINUE BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK PER THE
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS BACKED-OFF OF
ON AN END OF THE WORK-WEEK STORM AND NOW SHOWS WEAK RIDGING GIVING
WAY TO WEAK ZONAL FLOW BY FRIDAY...AS DOES THE GFS. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO TREND DOWN GOING INTO MID WEEK WITH COLD AIR REMAINING IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK IF THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WORK-OUT.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-521-523-526.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 212327 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
427 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT
18HRS...ALTHOUGH WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF VFR CIGS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN AFTERNOON BREEZES WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN
25-30KTS AT KTCC AND KLVS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HIGH CLOUDS TO THE REGION BUT LITTLE ELSE OVERNIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM
SLIDES EASTWARD INTO WEST TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ALL AREAS SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A TRAILING STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THIS LOW SEWD
INTO MEXICO OVERNIGHT. LEFT SLIM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS FOR LATE TONIGHT BUT SUSPECT THAT THE DRY
MID AND LOW LEVEL WILL MAKE IT RATHER TOUGH FOR RAIN TO REACH THE SFC.

ALL EYES THEN TURN TO TWO VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS IN THE
DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT HEADED TOWARD NM SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG W-NW WINDS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EWD TO THE NE AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
INTERSTATE 25 FROM LAS VEGAS TO RATON LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG CROSS WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
MOUNTAIN WAVE SURFACING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NAM12 CROSS SECTION
INDICATING THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WILL
BE SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A CRITICAL/STABLE LAYER NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS
STRONGEST. NAM12 FORECASTING 65KTS OF CROSS BARRIER FLOW AT 700 MB
09Z SUNDAY JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO CREST-LINE JUST AHEAD OF
THE SFC COLD FRONT. STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT. ISSUED HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AS A
RESULT. COLDER AIR WILL PUSH RAPIDLY THROUGH NW NM SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
NW WINDS RETURN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT NOT AS AS STRONG.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY. ECMWF NOW IN LINE WITH THE GFS FOR
THANKSGIVING AND BLACK FRIDAY. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS EWD
FROM THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RECENT MERGING
OF AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH OF
HAWAII HAVE THROWN QUITE THE WRINKLE IN MODEL JET STREAM
FORECASTS. ADDITIONALLY...A NEW FLARE UP OF CONVECTION IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MAY THROW MORE FLIES IN THE OINTMENT. SUSPECT
SEVERAL MORE FORECAST SOLUTIONS WILL EMERGE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS BEFORE SETTLING ON SOMETHING SO UNFORTUNATELY...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR TURKEY DAY AND BEYOND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

A SHORT-LIVED WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HUMIDITY RECOVERY TRENDING DOWN...ALTHOUGH STILL FAIR TO GOOD WITH
SOME EXCELLENT RECOVERY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SATURDAY`S HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL CENTRAL AND
WEST...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE UPTREND OVER THE WEEKEND...AS WILL VENTILATION
WITH EXCELLENT RATES FORECAST SUNDAY. WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY
MID DAY SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIND WILL
ALSO FORCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY...
WITH SOME WETTING PRECIPITATION (ACCUMULATING SNOW) POSSIBLE ABOVE
9000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A DOWNTREND SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
BELOW NORMAL...THEN CONTINUE BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK PER THE
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS BACKED-OFF OF
ON AN END OF THE WORK-WEEK STORM AND NOW SHOWS WEAK RIDGING GIVING
WAY TO WEAK ZONAL FLOW BY FRIDAY...AS DOES THE GFS. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO TREND DOWN GOING INTO MID WEEK WITH COLD AIR REMAINING IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK IF THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WORK-OUT.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-521-523-526.

&&

$$

33







000
FXUS65 KABQ 212327 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
427 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT
18HRS...ALTHOUGH WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF VFR CIGS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND RESULT IN AFTERNOON BREEZES WITH GUSTS TO BETWEEN
25-30KTS AT KTCC AND KLVS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HIGH CLOUDS TO THE REGION BUT LITTLE ELSE OVERNIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM
SLIDES EASTWARD INTO WEST TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ALL AREAS SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A TRAILING STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THIS LOW SEWD
INTO MEXICO OVERNIGHT. LEFT SLIM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS FOR LATE TONIGHT BUT SUSPECT THAT THE DRY
MID AND LOW LEVEL WILL MAKE IT RATHER TOUGH FOR RAIN TO REACH THE SFC.

ALL EYES THEN TURN TO TWO VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS IN THE
DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT HEADED TOWARD NM SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG W-NW WINDS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EWD TO THE NE AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
INTERSTATE 25 FROM LAS VEGAS TO RATON LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG CROSS WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
MOUNTAIN WAVE SURFACING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NAM12 CROSS SECTION
INDICATING THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WILL
BE SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A CRITICAL/STABLE LAYER NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS
STRONGEST. NAM12 FORECASTING 65KTS OF CROSS BARRIER FLOW AT 700 MB
09Z SUNDAY JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO CREST-LINE JUST AHEAD OF
THE SFC COLD FRONT. STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT. ISSUED HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AS A
RESULT. COLDER AIR WILL PUSH RAPIDLY THROUGH NW NM SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
NW WINDS RETURN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT NOT AS AS STRONG.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY. ECMWF NOW IN LINE WITH THE GFS FOR
THANKSGIVING AND BLACK FRIDAY. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS EWD
FROM THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RECENT MERGING
OF AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH OF
HAWAII HAVE THROWN QUITE THE WRINKLE IN MODEL JET STREAM
FORECASTS. ADDITIONALLY...A NEW FLARE UP OF CONVECTION IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MAY THROW MORE FLIES IN THE OINTMENT. SUSPECT
SEVERAL MORE FORECAST SOLUTIONS WILL EMERGE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS BEFORE SETTLING ON SOMETHING SO UNFORTUNATELY...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR TURKEY DAY AND BEYOND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

A SHORT-LIVED WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HUMIDITY RECOVERY TRENDING DOWN...ALTHOUGH STILL FAIR TO GOOD WITH
SOME EXCELLENT RECOVERY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SATURDAY`S HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL CENTRAL AND
WEST...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE UPTREND OVER THE WEEKEND...AS WILL VENTILATION
WITH EXCELLENT RATES FORECAST SUNDAY. WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY
MID DAY SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIND WILL
ALSO FORCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY...
WITH SOME WETTING PRECIPITATION (ACCUMULATING SNOW) POSSIBLE ABOVE
9000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A DOWNTREND SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
BELOW NORMAL...THEN CONTINUE BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK PER THE
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS BACKED-OFF OF
ON AN END OF THE WORK-WEEK STORM AND NOW SHOWS WEAK RIDGING GIVING
WAY TO WEAK ZONAL FLOW BY FRIDAY...AS DOES THE GFS. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO TREND DOWN GOING INTO MID WEEK WITH COLD AIR REMAINING IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK IF THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WORK-OUT.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-521-523-526.

&&

$$

33








000
FXUS65 KABQ 212231
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
331 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HIGH CLOUDS TO THE REGION BUT LITTLE ELSE OVERNIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM
SLIDES EASTWARD INTO WEST TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ALL AREAS SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A TRAILING STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THIS LOW SEWD
INTO MEXICO OVERNIGHT. LEFT SLIM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS FOR LATE TONIGHT BUT SUSPECT THAT THE DRY
MID AND LOW LEVEL WILL MAKE IT RATHER TOUGH FOR RAIN TO REACH THE SFC.

ALL EYES THEN TURN TO TWO VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS IN THE
DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT HEADED TOWARD NM SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG W-NW WINDS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EWD TO THE NE AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
INTERSTATE 25 FROM LAS VEGAS TO RATON LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG CROSS WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
MOUNTAIN WAVE SURFACING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NAM12 CROSS SECTION
INDICATING THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WILL
BE SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A CRITICAL/STABLE LAYER NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS
STRONGEST. NAM12 FORECASTING 65KTS OF CROSS BARRIER FLOW AT 700 MB
09Z SUNDAY JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO CREST-LINE JUST AHEAD OF
THE SFC COLD FRONT. STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT. ISSUED HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AS A
RESULT. COLDER AIR WILL PUSH RAPIDLY THROUGH NW NM SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
NW WINDS RETURN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT NOT AS AS STRONG.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY. ECMWF NOW IN LINE WITH THE GFS FOR
THANKSGIVING AND BLACK FRIDAY. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS EWD
FROM THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RECENT MERGING
OF AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH OF
HAWAII HAVE THROWN QUITE THE WRINKLE IN MODEL JET STREAM
FORECASTS. ADDITIONALLY...A NEW FLARE UP OF CONVECTION IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MAY THROW MORE FLIES IN THE OINTMENT. SUSPECT
SEVERAL MORE FORECAST SOLUTIONS WILL EMERGE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS BEFORE SETTLING ON SOMETHING SO UNFORTUNATELY...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR TURKEY DAY AND BEYOND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

A SHORT-LIVED WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HUMIDITY RECOVERY TRENDING DOWN...ALTHOUGH STILL FAIR TO GOOD WITH
SOME EXCELLENT RECOVERY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SATURDAY`S HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL CENTRAL AND
WEST...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE UPTREND OVER THE WEEKEND...AS WILL VENTILATION
WITH EXCELLENT RATES FORECAST SUNDAY. WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY
MID DAY SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIND WILL
ALSO FORCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY...
WITH SOME WETTING PRECIPITATION (ACCUMULATING SNOW) POSSIBLE ABOVE
9000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A DOWNTREND SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
BELOW NORMAL...THEN CONTINUE BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK PER THE
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS BACKED-OFF OF
ON AN END OF THE WORK-WEEK STORM AND NOW SHOWS WEAK RIDGING GIVING
WAY TO WEAK ZONAL FLOW BY FRIDAY...AS DOES THE GFS. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO TREND DOWN GOING INTO MID WEEK WITH COLD AIR REMAINING IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK IF THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WORK-OUT.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT
24HRS...ALTHOUGH WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF VFR CIGS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  23  52  29  42 /   0   0  10   5
DULCE...........................  19  48  24  39 /   0   0  20  10
CUBA............................  20  47  24  36 /   0   0  20  10
GALLUP..........................  19  53  24  42 /   0   0   5  10
EL MORRO........................  18  50  22  42 /   0   0   5  10
GRANTS..........................  19  53  24  43 /   0   0   5  10
QUEMADO.........................  26  51  30  42 /   0   0   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  27  62  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  16  43  22  36 /   0   0  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  27  46  32  37 /   0   0   5   5
PECOS...........................  28  47  30  40 /   0   0   5  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  18  45  22  36 /   0   0  10  20
RED RIVER.......................  21  38  20  29 /   0   0  20  40
ANGEL FIRE......................   3  43  10  35 /   0   0  10  30
TAOS............................  17  45  24  36 /   0   0  10  20
MORA............................  25  49  30  40 /   0   0   5  20
ESPANOLA........................  26  51  27  41 /   0   0   5   5
SANTA FE........................  30  47  32  40 /   0   0   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  25  50  27  42 /   0   0   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  30  54  33  46 /   0   0   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  32  56  34  48 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  27  58  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  29  57  33  49 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  25  59  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  30  57  33  49 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  30  63  32  53 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  25  48  30  41 /   0   0   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  23  49  33  43 /   0   0   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  11  51  23  44 /   0   0   5   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  28  50  29  42 /   0   0   5  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  30  52  32  45 /   0   0   5   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  33  57  33  50 /   5   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  31  56  33  50 /   5   5   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  24  54  30  40 /   0   0   5  20
RATON...........................  20  55  28  38 /   0   0   5  20
SPRINGER........................  22  56  27  41 /   0   0   5  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  25  52  33  43 /   0   0   5  10
CLAYTON.........................  33  62  36  47 /   0   0   0  10
ROY.............................  27  58  31  45 /   0   0   5  10
CONCHAS.........................  34  63  39  52 /   0   0   0  10
SANTA ROSA......................  34  62  39  54 /   0   5   0  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  34  65  38  54 /   0   5   0  10
CLOVIS..........................  38  64  37  56 /  10   5   0   5
PORTALES........................  39  65  39  58 /  10  10   0   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  36  64  38  57 /   5   5   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  38  66  37  64 /  10   5   0   0
PICACHO.........................  36  62  38  57 /   5   5   0   0
ELK.............................  36  60  37  55 /   5   5   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-521-523-526.

&&

$$

33


















000
FXUS65 KABQ 212231
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
331 PM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM PASSING SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
HIGH CLOUDS TO THE REGION BUT LITTLE ELSE OVERNIGHT. AS THIS SYSTEM
SLIDES EASTWARD INTO WEST TEXAS SATURDAY MORNING...WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE LATE SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MOST AREAS SATURDAY NIGHT
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ALL AREAS SUNDAY. STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AS A TRAILING STORM
SYSTEM MOVES FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO
THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD IN FROM
THE WEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER OVER FAR SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA THIS
AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT TAKING THIS LOW SEWD
INTO MEXICO OVERNIGHT. LEFT SLIM CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OVER THE EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS FOR LATE TONIGHT BUT SUSPECT THAT THE DRY
MID AND LOW LEVEL WILL MAKE IT RATHER TOUGH FOR RAIN TO REACH THE SFC.

ALL EYES THEN TURN TO TWO VIGOROUS SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS IN THE
DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT HEADED TOWARD NM SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN
SATURDAY EVENING. STRONG W-NW WINDS WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EWD TO THE NE AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS.
INTERSTATE 25 FROM LAS VEGAS TO RATON LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY STRONG CROSS WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH A
MOUNTAIN WAVE SURFACING EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. NAM12 CROSS SECTION
INDICATING THAT THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY WILL
BE SUNDAY MORNING WHEN A CRITICAL/STABLE LAYER NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS
STRONGEST. NAM12 FORECASTING 65KTS OF CROSS BARRIER FLOW AT 700 MB
09Z SUNDAY JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO CREST-LINE JUST AHEAD OF
THE SFC COLD FRONT. STRONG NW WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING SUNDAY NIGHT. ISSUED HIGH WIND
WATCH FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AS A
RESULT. COLDER AIR WILL PUSH RAPIDLY THROUGH NW NM SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA DURING THE DAY.
NW WINDS RETURN MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT BUT NOT AS AS STRONG.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT DRY NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
MOVE OVERHEAD TUESDAY. ECMWF NOW IN LINE WITH THE GFS FOR
THANKSGIVING AND BLACK FRIDAY. HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE BUILDS EWD
FROM THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. RECENT MERGING
OF AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION IN THE CENTRAL PACIFIC OCEAN SOUTH OF
HAWAII HAVE THROWN QUITE THE WRINKLE IN MODEL JET STREAM
FORECASTS. ADDITIONALLY...A NEW FLARE UP OF CONVECTION IN THE
EASTERN PACIFIC MAY THROW MORE FLIES IN THE OINTMENT. SUSPECT
SEVERAL MORE FORECAST SOLUTIONS WILL EMERGE IN THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS BEFORE SETTLING ON SOMETHING SO UNFORTUNATELY...FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE REMAINS RATHER LOW FOR TURKEY DAY AND BEYOND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...

A SHORT-LIVED WARMING TREND TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
HUMIDITY RECOVERY TRENDING DOWN...ALTHOUGH STILL FAIR TO GOOD WITH
SOME EXCELLENT RECOVERY IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. SATURDAY`S HIGHS
ARE FORECAST TO BE WITHIN A COUPLE DEGREES OF NORMAL CENTRAL AND
WEST...WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.
WINDS WILL BE ON THE UPTREND OVER THE WEEKEND...AS WILL VENTILATION
WITH EXCELLENT RATES FORECAST SUNDAY. WINDY TO VERY WINDY CONDITIONS
WILL SPREAD TO INCLUDE MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO BY
MID DAY SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WIND WILL
ALSO FORCE PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS ON SUNDAY...
WITH SOME WETTING PRECIPITATION (ACCUMULATING SNOW) POSSIBLE ABOVE
9000 FEET. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN A DOWNTREND SUNDAY AS A COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY ARE FORECAST TO BE
BELOW NORMAL...THEN CONTINUE BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST ON
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST AREAS...WITH AN
ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH DROPPING DOWN IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT.

DRY CONDITIONS LOOK TO PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF NEXT WEEK PER THE
12Z MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS BACKED-OFF OF
ON AN END OF THE WORK-WEEK STORM AND NOW SHOWS WEAK RIDGING GIVING
WAY TO WEAK ZONAL FLOW BY FRIDAY...AS DOES THE GFS. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO TREND DOWN GOING INTO MID WEEK WITH COLD AIR REMAINING IN
THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES WARMING IN THE MID
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT IS LIKELY BY THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK IF THE 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS WORK-OUT.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT
24HRS...ALTHOUGH WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF VFR CIGS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  23  52  29  42 /   0   0  10   5
DULCE...........................  19  48  24  39 /   0   0  20  10
CUBA............................  20  47  24  36 /   0   0  20  10
GALLUP..........................  19  53  24  42 /   0   0   5  10
EL MORRO........................  18  50  22  42 /   0   0   5  10
GRANTS..........................  19  53  24  43 /   0   0   5  10
QUEMADO.........................  26  51  30  42 /   0   0   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  27  62  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  16  43  22  36 /   0   0  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  27  46  32  37 /   0   0   5   5
PECOS...........................  28  47  30  40 /   0   0   5  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  18  45  22  36 /   0   0  10  20
RED RIVER.......................  21  38  20  29 /   0   0  20  40
ANGEL FIRE......................   3  43  10  35 /   0   0  10  30
TAOS............................  17  45  24  36 /   0   0  10  20
MORA............................  25  49  30  40 /   0   0   5  20
ESPANOLA........................  26  51  27  41 /   0   0   5   5
SANTA FE........................  30  47  32  40 /   0   0   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  25  50  27  42 /   0   0   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  30  54  33  46 /   0   0   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  32  56  34  48 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  27  58  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  29  57  33  49 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  25  59  30  49 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  30  57  33  49 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  30  63  32  53 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  25  48  30  41 /   0   0   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  23  49  33  43 /   0   0   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  11  51  23  44 /   0   0   5   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  28  50  29  42 /   0   0   5  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  30  52  32  45 /   0   0   5   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  33  57  33  50 /   5   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  31  56  33  50 /   5   5   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  24  54  30  40 /   0   0   5  20
RATON...........................  20  55  28  38 /   0   0   5  20
SPRINGER........................  22  56  27  41 /   0   0   5  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  25  52  33  43 /   0   0   5  10
CLAYTON.........................  33  62  36  47 /   0   0   0  10
ROY.............................  27  58  31  45 /   0   0   5  10
CONCHAS.........................  34  63  39  52 /   0   0   0  10
SANTA ROSA......................  34  62  39  54 /   0   5   0  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  34  65  38  54 /   0   5   0  10
CLOVIS..........................  38  64  37  56 /  10   5   0   5
PORTALES........................  39  65  39  58 /  10  10   0   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  36  64  38  57 /   5   5   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  38  66  37  64 /  10   5   0   0
PICACHO.........................  36  62  38  57 /   5   5   0   0
ELK.............................  36  60  37  55 /   5   5   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513>515-521-523-526.

&&

$$

33

















000
FXUS65 KABQ 211719 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1019 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT
24HRS...ALTHOUGH WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF VFR CIGS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...328 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE BIG
WEATHER STORY CONTINUES TO BE STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50 MPH WILL BE MOST PROBABLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
CONSIDERABLY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. IN FACT...SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS SUNDAY BEHIND A BACK DOOR FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SOME TUESDAY AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY DIVING SE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND END UP WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWA BY TONIGHT. WITH SUCH LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT...AND THE SYSTEM TRENDING EVEN FURTHER SOUTH...HAVE DECIDED
TO SCALE BACK OR EVEN REMOVE SOME OF THE LOW POPS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL INCREASE...WITH BKN-OVC SKIES BY MID
DAY GIVEN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER AZ.

MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.  700 MB WINDS WILL START TO CRANK UP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. 700 MB WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT TO APPROX 60KTS. MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY
SEEMS VERY LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD THE WAVES CRASH TO THE
SURFACE...SOME VERY STRONG GUSTS MAY BE IN THE OFFING. AS SOON AS
MIXING OCCURS SUNDAY MORNING...THE STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD
TO THE TEXAS BORDER ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. 700 MB WINDS AROUND
50KTS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND DESPITE MUCH COOLER
TEMPS AS THE SHORTWAVE CLIPS NM...MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD BE AOA THAT
HEIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE
INTO THE AREA...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND PRECIP CHANCES UPWARD
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE THAT COMES THROUGH ON MONDAY LOOKS TO SHIFT THE
STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS FURTHER WEST AS ANOTHER BACK DOOR PUSH
MOVES INTO THE NE.  WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG ON MONDAY...BUT
STILL BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE WEST.  PRECIP CHANCES ALSO DO NOT
LOOK AS GOOD FOR THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT.

THEREAFTER...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A DRY PATTERN WILL
FOLLOW. THE ECMWF NO LONGER SHOWS A BIG STORM SYSTEM AT THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND RATHER HAS A RIDGE...AT LEAST UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. THE
GFS DOES NOT HAVE AS PRONOUNCED OF A RIDGE AS IT DID LAST
NIGHT...BUT MORE OF A DRY WNW FLOW. BY FRIDAY...THE GFS SHOWS
ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT...BUT THE EC DOES NOT.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDY TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...

MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE STORM OVER CA SOUTH OF NM WITH LITTLE
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER ROOSEVELT
AND SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL...A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTH AND EAST. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE 20S AND 30S FRIDAY ...HIGHER THAN ON THURSDAY. THE VENT RATES
WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY IN THE POOR TO FAIR RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH AND EAST. RH RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TX SATURDAY AWAY FROM
NM. OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS QUICKLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CRANK UP AREAWIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...RESULTING IN GOOD
TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION FOR MOST AREAS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
EASILY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER THE
HIGHER CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN PEAKS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD
ONTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RH VALUES. HIGHS WILL BE
UP TO 20 DEGREES LOWER IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY WHILE MINIMUM RH VALUES
RISE INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 40. THIS WILL MEAN NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY DESPITE THE STRONG WINDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR AREAS NORTH OF I
40.

A WEAKER...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP THROUGH THE STATE ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SOME MODERATE WINDS GOING WHILE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN...NOW 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. VENT
RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE. A FEW LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS MAY FALL OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILDER AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
VENT RATES WILL TAKE A HIT WITH FAIR TO POOR RATES OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTH AND WEST BOTH DAYS.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR
THANKSGIVING. A BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD REACH THE EAST AS WELL.
OVERALL IT WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL WEST AND BELOW
NORMAL EAST. A FEW RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.
BLACK FRIDAY WILL BE DRY BUT CHILLY. CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33







000
FXUS65 KABQ 211719 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1019 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT
24HRS...ALTHOUGH WITH A GRADUAL LOWERING OF VFR CIGS INTO THE
EVENING HOURS. WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL INCREASE DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS SATURDAY.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...328 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE BIG
WEATHER STORY CONTINUES TO BE STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50 MPH WILL BE MOST PROBABLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
CONSIDERABLY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. IN FACT...SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS SUNDAY BEHIND A BACK DOOR FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SOME TUESDAY AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY DIVING SE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND END UP WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWA BY TONIGHT. WITH SUCH LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT...AND THE SYSTEM TRENDING EVEN FURTHER SOUTH...HAVE DECIDED
TO SCALE BACK OR EVEN REMOVE SOME OF THE LOW POPS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL INCREASE...WITH BKN-OVC SKIES BY MID
DAY GIVEN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER AZ.

MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.  700 MB WINDS WILL START TO CRANK UP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. 700 MB WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT TO APPROX 60KTS. MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY
SEEMS VERY LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD THE WAVES CRASH TO THE
SURFACE...SOME VERY STRONG GUSTS MAY BE IN THE OFFING. AS SOON AS
MIXING OCCURS SUNDAY MORNING...THE STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD
TO THE TEXAS BORDER ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. 700 MB WINDS AROUND
50KTS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND DESPITE MUCH COOLER
TEMPS AS THE SHORTWAVE CLIPS NM...MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD BE AOA THAT
HEIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE
INTO THE AREA...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND PRECIP CHANCES UPWARD
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE THAT COMES THROUGH ON MONDAY LOOKS TO SHIFT THE
STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS FURTHER WEST AS ANOTHER BACK DOOR PUSH
MOVES INTO THE NE.  WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG ON MONDAY...BUT
STILL BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE WEST.  PRECIP CHANCES ALSO DO NOT
LOOK AS GOOD FOR THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT.

THEREAFTER...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A DRY PATTERN WILL
FOLLOW. THE ECMWF NO LONGER SHOWS A BIG STORM SYSTEM AT THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND RATHER HAS A RIDGE...AT LEAST UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. THE
GFS DOES NOT HAVE AS PRONOUNCED OF A RIDGE AS IT DID LAST
NIGHT...BUT MORE OF A DRY WNW FLOW. BY FRIDAY...THE GFS SHOWS
ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT...BUT THE EC DOES NOT.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDY TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...

MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE STORM OVER CA SOUTH OF NM WITH LITTLE
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER ROOSEVELT
AND SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL...A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTH AND EAST. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE 20S AND 30S FRIDAY ...HIGHER THAN ON THURSDAY. THE VENT RATES
WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY IN THE POOR TO FAIR RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH AND EAST. RH RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TX SATURDAY AWAY FROM
NM. OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS QUICKLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CRANK UP AREAWIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...RESULTING IN GOOD
TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION FOR MOST AREAS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
EASILY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER THE
HIGHER CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN PEAKS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD
ONTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RH VALUES. HIGHS WILL BE
UP TO 20 DEGREES LOWER IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY WHILE MINIMUM RH VALUES
RISE INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 40. THIS WILL MEAN NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY DESPITE THE STRONG WINDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR AREAS NORTH OF I
40.

A WEAKER...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP THROUGH THE STATE ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SOME MODERATE WINDS GOING WHILE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN...NOW 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. VENT
RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE. A FEW LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS MAY FALL OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILDER AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
VENT RATES WILL TAKE A HIT WITH FAIR TO POOR RATES OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTH AND WEST BOTH DAYS.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR
THANKSGIVING. A BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD REACH THE EAST AS WELL.
OVERALL IT WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL WEST AND BELOW
NORMAL EAST. A FEW RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.
BLACK FRIDAY WILL BE DRY BUT CHILLY. CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33






000
FXUS65 KABQ 211152 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
452 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF
SITES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER NEAR ROW AFTER 03Z
BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EVEN PUT VCSH IN THEIR TAF. EVEN
IF THEY GET A BRIEF SHOWER VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...328 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE BIG
WEATHER STORY CONTINUES TO BE STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50 MPH WILL BE MOST PROBABLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
CONSIDERABLY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. IN FACT...SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS SUNDAY BEHIND A BACK DOOR FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SOME TUESDAY AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY DIVING SE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND END UP WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWA BY TONIGHT. WITH SUCH LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT...AND THE SYSTEM TRENDING EVEN FURTHER SOUTH...HAVE DECIDED
TO SCALE BACK OR EVEN REMOVE SOME OF THE LOW POPS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL INCREASE...WITH BKN-OVC SKIES BY MID
DAY GIVEN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER AZ.

MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.  700 MB WINDS WILL START TO CRANK UP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. 700 MB WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT TO APPROX 60KTS. MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY
SEEMS VERY LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD THE WAVES CRASH TO THE
SURFACE...SOME VERY STRONG GUSTS MAY BE IN THE OFFING. AS SOON AS
MIXING OCCURS SUNDAY MORNING...THE STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD
TO THE TEXAS BORDER ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. 700 MB WINDS AROUND
50KTS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND DESPITE MUCH COOLER
TEMPS AS THE SHORTWAVE CLIPS NM...MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD BE AOA THAT
HEIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE
INTO THE AREA...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND PRECIP CHANCES UPWARD
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE THAT COMES THROUGH ON MONDAY LOOKS TO SHIFT THE
STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS FURTHER WEST AS ANOTHER BACK DOOR PUSH
MOVES INTO THE NE.  WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG ON MONDAY...BUT
STILL BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE WEST.  PRECIP CHANCES ALSO DO NOT
LOOK AS GOOD FOR THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT.

THEREAFTER...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A DRY PATTERN WILL
FOLLOW. THE ECMWF NO LONGER SHOWS A BIG STORM SYSTEM AT THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND RATHER HAS A RIDGE...AT LEAST UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. THE
GFS DOES NOT HAVE AS PRONOUNCED OF A RIDGE AS IT DID LAST
NIGHT...BUT MORE OF A DRY WNW FLOW. BY FRIDAY...THE GFS SHOWS
ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT...BUT THE EC DOES NOT.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDY TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...

MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE STORM OVER CA SOUTH OF NM WITH LITTLE
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER ROOSEVELT
AND SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL...A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTH AND EAST. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE 20S AND 30S FRIDAY ...HIGHER THAN ON THURSDAY. THE VENT RATES
WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY IN THE POOR TO FAIR RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH AND EAST. RH RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TX SATURDAY AWAY FROM
NM. OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS QUICKLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CRANK UP AREAWIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...RESULTING IN GOOD
TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION FOR MOST AREAS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
EASILY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER THE
HIGHER CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN PEAKS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD
ONTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RH VALUES. HIGHS WILL BE
UP TO 20 DEGREES LOWER IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY WHILE MINIMUM RH VALUES
RISE INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 40. THIS WILL MEAN NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY DESPITE THE STRONG WINDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR AREAS NORTH OF I
40.

A WEAKER...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP THROUGH THE STATE ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SOME MODERATE WINDS GOING WHILE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN...NOW 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. VENT
RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE. A FEW LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS MAY FALL OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILDER AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
VENT RATES WILL TAKE A HIT WITH FAIR TO POOR RATES OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTH AND WEST BOTH DAYS.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR
THANKSGIVING. A BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD REACH THE EAST AS WELL.
OVERALL IT WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL WEST AND BELOW
NORMAL EAST. A FEW RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.
BLACK FRIDAY WILL BE DRY BUT CHILLY. CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 211152 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
452 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS AT ALL TAF
SITES. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF A SHOWER NEAR ROW AFTER 03Z
BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO EVEN PUT VCSH IN THEIR TAF. EVEN
IF THEY GET A BRIEF SHOWER VFR CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...328 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE BIG
WEATHER STORY CONTINUES TO BE STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50 MPH WILL BE MOST PROBABLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
CONSIDERABLY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. IN FACT...SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS SUNDAY BEHIND A BACK DOOR FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SOME TUESDAY AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY DIVING SE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND END UP WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWA BY TONIGHT. WITH SUCH LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT...AND THE SYSTEM TRENDING EVEN FURTHER SOUTH...HAVE DECIDED
TO SCALE BACK OR EVEN REMOVE SOME OF THE LOW POPS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL INCREASE...WITH BKN-OVC SKIES BY MID
DAY GIVEN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER AZ.

MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.  700 MB WINDS WILL START TO CRANK UP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. 700 MB WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT TO APPROX 60KTS. MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY
SEEMS VERY LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD THE WAVES CRASH TO THE
SURFACE...SOME VERY STRONG GUSTS MAY BE IN THE OFFING. AS SOON AS
MIXING OCCURS SUNDAY MORNING...THE STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD
TO THE TEXAS BORDER ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. 700 MB WINDS AROUND
50KTS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND DESPITE MUCH COOLER
TEMPS AS THE SHORTWAVE CLIPS NM...MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD BE AOA THAT
HEIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE
INTO THE AREA...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND PRECIP CHANCES UPWARD
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE THAT COMES THROUGH ON MONDAY LOOKS TO SHIFT THE
STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS FURTHER WEST AS ANOTHER BACK DOOR PUSH
MOVES INTO THE NE.  WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG ON MONDAY...BUT
STILL BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE WEST.  PRECIP CHANCES ALSO DO NOT
LOOK AS GOOD FOR THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT.

THEREAFTER...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A DRY PATTERN WILL
FOLLOW. THE ECMWF NO LONGER SHOWS A BIG STORM SYSTEM AT THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND RATHER HAS A RIDGE...AT LEAST UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. THE
GFS DOES NOT HAVE AS PRONOUNCED OF A RIDGE AS IT DID LAST
NIGHT...BUT MORE OF A DRY WNW FLOW. BY FRIDAY...THE GFS SHOWS
ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT...BUT THE EC DOES NOT.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDY TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...

MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE STORM OVER CA SOUTH OF NM WITH LITTLE
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER ROOSEVELT
AND SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL...A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTH AND EAST. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE 20S AND 30S FRIDAY ...HIGHER THAN ON THURSDAY. THE VENT RATES
WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY IN THE POOR TO FAIR RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH AND EAST. RH RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TX SATURDAY AWAY FROM
NM. OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS QUICKLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CRANK UP AREAWIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...RESULTING IN GOOD
TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION FOR MOST AREAS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
EASILY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER THE
HIGHER CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN PEAKS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD
ONTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RH VALUES. HIGHS WILL BE
UP TO 20 DEGREES LOWER IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY WHILE MINIMUM RH VALUES
RISE INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 40. THIS WILL MEAN NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY DESPITE THE STRONG WINDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR AREAS NORTH OF I
40.

A WEAKER...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP THROUGH THE STATE ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SOME MODERATE WINDS GOING WHILE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN...NOW 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. VENT
RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE. A FEW LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS MAY FALL OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILDER AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
VENT RATES WILL TAKE A HIT WITH FAIR TO POOR RATES OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTH AND WEST BOTH DAYS.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR
THANKSGIVING. A BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD REACH THE EAST AS WELL.
OVERALL IT WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL WEST AND BELOW
NORMAL EAST. A FEW RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.
BLACK FRIDAY WILL BE DRY BUT CHILLY. CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 211028
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
328 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE BIG
WEATHER STORY CONTINUES TO BE STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50 MPH WILL BE MOST PROBABLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
CONSIDERABLY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. IN FACT...SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS SUNDAY BEHIND A BACK DOOR FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SOME TUESDAY AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY DIVING SE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND END UP WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWA BY TONIGHT. WITH SUCH LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT...AND THE SYSTEM TRENDING EVEN FURTHER SOUTH...HAVE DECIDED
TO SCALE BACK OR EVEN REMOVE SOME OF THE LOW POPS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL INCREASE...WITH BKN-OVC SKIES BY MID
DAY GIVEN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER AZ.

MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.  700 MB WINDS WILL START TO CRANK UP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. 700 MB WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT TO APPROX 60KTS. MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY
SEEMS VERY LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD THE WAVES CRASH TO THE
SURFACE...SOME VERY STRONG GUSTS MAY BE IN THE OFFING. AS SOON AS
MIXING OCCURS SUNDAY MORNING...THE STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD
TO THE TEXAS BORDER ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. 700 MB WINDS AROUND
50KTS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND DESPITE MUCH COOLER
TEMPS AS THE SHORTWAVE CLIPS NM...MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD BE AOA THAT
HEIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE
INTO THE AREA...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND PRECIP CHANCES UPWARD
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE THAT COMES THROUGH ON MONDAY LOOKS TO SHIFT THE
STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS FURTHER WEST AS ANOTHER BACK DOOR PUSH
MOVES INTO THE NE.  WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG ON MONDAY...BUT
STILL BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE WEST.  PRECIP CHANCES ALSO DO NOT
LOOK AS GOOD FOR THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT.

THEREAFTER...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A DRY PATTERN WILL
FOLLOW. THE ECMWF NO LONGER SHOWS A BIG STORM SYSTEM AT THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND RATHER HAS A RIDGE...AT LEAST UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. THE
GFS DOES NOT HAVE AS PRONOUNCED OF A RIDGE AS IT DID LAST
NIGHT...BUT MORE OF A DRY WNW FLOW. BY FRIDAY...THE GFS SHOWS
ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT...BUT THE EC DOES NOT.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDY TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...

MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE STORM OVER CA SOUTH OF NM WITH LITTLE
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER ROOSEVELT
AND SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL...A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTH AND EAST. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE 20S AND 30S FRIDAY ...HIGHER THAN ON THURSDAY. THE VENT RATES
WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY IN THE POOR TO FAIR RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH AND EAST. RH RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TX SATURDAY AWAY FROM
NM. OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS QUICKLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CRANK UP AREAWIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...RESULTING IN GOOD
TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION FOR MOST AREAS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
EASILY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER THE
HIGHER CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN PEAKS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD
ONTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RH VALUES. HIGHS WILL BE
UP TO 20 DEGREES LOWER IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY WHILE MINIMUM RH VALUES
RISE INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 40. THIS WILL MEAN NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY DESPITE THE STRONG WINDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR AREAS NORTH OF I
40.

A WEAKER...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP THROUGH THE STATE ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SOME MODERATE WINDS GOING WHILE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN...NOW 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. VENT
RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE. A FEW LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS MAY FALL OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILDER AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
VENT RATES WILL TAKE A HIT WITH FAIR TO POOR RATES OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTH AND WEST BOTH DAYS.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR
THANKSGIVING. A BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD REACH THE EAST AS WELL.
OVERALL IT WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL WEST AND BELOW
NORMAL EAST. A FEW RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.
BLACK FRIDAY WILL BE DRY BUT CHILLY. CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS S OF NM FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER A FEW RAIN SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS AND MT
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE SW MTS FRIDAY AFTN. THEN THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS S OF HIGHWAY 60 FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIFTED INDICES NEAR AND BELOW ZERO...A FEW OF THE
CELLS ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM ROSWELL TO PORTALES COULD PRODUCE
LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  53  22  51  27 /   5   0   0  10
DULCE...........................  51  18  47  24 /   5   0   0  20
CUBA............................  49  19  47  26 /   0   0   0  20
GALLUP..........................  54  16  53  24 /   5   0   0   5
EL MORRO........................  50  18  50  25 /   5   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  53  15  53  25 /   5   0   0   5
QUEMADO.........................  49  21  52  29 /   5   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  62  31  63  31 /   5   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  47  15  47  24 /   5   0   0  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  45  26  46  33 /   0   0   0   5
PECOS...........................  48  27  49  31 /   0   0   0   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  48  18  46  25 /   0   0   0  10
RED RIVER.......................  41  12  42  17 /   0   0   0  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  44   7  45  15 /   0   0   0  10
TAOS............................  47  18  46  24 /   0   0   0   5
MORA............................  50  23  50  30 /   0   0   0   5
ESPANOLA........................  50  26  50  26 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE........................  48  30  48  32 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  51  24  51  27 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  54  31  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  55  32  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  56  26  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  55  27  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  55  24  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  55  29  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  59  30  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  51  27  52  30 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  54  28  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  52  14  52  19 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  50  26  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  52  27  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  57  30  56  33 /   0   5   5   0
RUIDOSO.........................  57  30  56  33 /   0  10   5   0
CAPULIN.........................  52  26  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................  54  21  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  55  22  59  27 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  25  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  58  34  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  57  27  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  62  34  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  63  33  64  38 /   0   0   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  64  34  67  39 /   0   0   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  64  38  66  37 /   0   5  10   5
PORTALES........................  65  37  67  38 /   0  10  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  34  65  39 /   0   5   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  67  36  68  37 /   0  10   5   5
PICACHO.........................  63  34  63  38 /   0   5   5   5
ELK.............................  60  35  60  36 /   0  10   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

34








000
FXUS65 KABQ 211028
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
328 AM MST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TODAY...KEEPING TEMPERATURES
AT OR A FEW DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS HIGH TEMPERATURES. THE BIG
WEATHER STORY CONTINUES TO BE STRONG WINDS DEVELOPING SATURDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY. WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF
50 MPH WILL BE MOST PROBABLE ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL
CONSIDERABLY FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS WELL. IN FACT...SOME LIGHT
SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND FAR
NORTHEAST PLAINS SUNDAY BEHIND A BACK DOOR FRONT. TEMPERATURES
WILL WARM SOME TUESDAY AND BE CLOSE TO NORMAL VALUES BY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM CURRENTLY DIVING SE ACROSS
SOUTHERN CALI WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND END UP WELL
SOUTH OF THE CWA BY TONIGHT. WITH SUCH LITTLE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH IT...AND THE SYSTEM TRENDING EVEN FURTHER SOUTH...HAVE DECIDED
TO SCALE BACK OR EVEN REMOVE SOME OF THE LOW POPS FOR TODAY AND
TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER WILL STILL INCREASE...WITH BKN-OVC SKIES BY MID
DAY GIVEN IR SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER AZ.

MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE STRONG WINDS SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY.  700 MB WINDS WILL START TO CRANK UP SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP ESPECIALLY
ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. 700 MB WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN SATURDAY NIGHT TO APPROX 60KTS. MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY
SEEMS VERY LIKELY SATURDAY NIGHT...AND SHOULD THE WAVES CRASH TO THE
SURFACE...SOME VERY STRONG GUSTS MAY BE IN THE OFFING. AS SOON AS
MIXING OCCURS SUNDAY MORNING...THE STRONG WINDS WILL EXPAND EASTWARD
TO THE TEXAS BORDER ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. 700 MB WINDS AROUND
50KTS WILL CONTINUE THRU THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND DESPITE MUCH COOLER
TEMPS AS THE SHORTWAVE CLIPS NM...MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD BE AOA THAT
HEIGHT. ACROSS THE NORTHEAST...A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL NUDGE
INTO THE AREA...AND MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND PRECIP CHANCES UPWARD
ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE THAT COMES THROUGH ON MONDAY LOOKS TO SHIFT THE
STRONGEST MID LEVEL WINDS FURTHER WEST AS ANOTHER BACK DOOR PUSH
MOVES INTO THE NE.  WINDS SHOULD NOT BE AS STRONG ON MONDAY...BUT
STILL BREEZY TO WINDY ACROSS THE WEST.  PRECIP CHANCES ALSO DO NOT
LOOK AS GOOD FOR THE NE BEHIND THE FRONT.

THEREAFTER...MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAT A DRY PATTERN WILL
FOLLOW. THE ECMWF NO LONGER SHOWS A BIG STORM SYSTEM AT THE END OF
THE WEEK...AND RATHER HAS A RIDGE...AT LEAST UNTIL NEXT WEEKEND. THE
GFS DOES NOT HAVE AS PRONOUNCED OF A RIDGE AS IT DID LAST
NIGHT...BUT MORE OF A DRY WNW FLOW. BY FRIDAY...THE GFS SHOWS
ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT...BUT THE EC DOES NOT.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS THIS WEEKEND WITH WINDY TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING...

MODELS CONTINUE TO TAKE THE STORM OVER CA SOUTH OF NM WITH LITTLE
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER. OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OVER ROOSEVELT
AND SOUTHERN CURRY COUNTIES TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY THE WEATHER WILL
CONTINUE DRY. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE TOO FAR FROM NORMAL...A BIT
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTH AND EAST. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE MOSTLY
IN THE 20S AND 30S FRIDAY ...HIGHER THAN ON THURSDAY. THE VENT RATES
WILL CONTINUE MOSTLY IN THE POOR TO FAIR RANGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE
NORTH AND EAST. RH RECOVERY TONIGHT WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

THE FIRST STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS WEST TX SATURDAY AWAY FROM
NM. OUR ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE NORTHWEST AS THE FLOW ALOFT
STRENGTHENS QUICKLY SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CRANK UP AREAWIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...RESULTING IN GOOD
TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION FOR MOST AREAS THIS WEEKEND. WINDS WILL
EASILY REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY OVER THE
HIGHER CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN PEAKS. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL SPREAD
ONTO THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A VIGOROUS UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
SUNDAY WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RH VALUES. HIGHS WILL BE
UP TO 20 DEGREES LOWER IN THE EAST ON SUNDAY WHILE MINIMUM RH VALUES
RISE INTO THE MID 20S TO AROUND 40. THIS WILL MEAN NO FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS FOR SUNDAY DESPITE THE STRONG WINDS. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR AREAS NORTH OF I
40.

A WEAKER...TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP THROUGH THE STATE ON
MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SOME MODERATE WINDS GOING WHILE TEMPERATURES
CONTINUE TO TREND DOWN...NOW 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. VENT
RATES WILL BE EXCELLENT VIRTUALLY EVERYWHERE. A FEW LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS MAY FALL OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY AND MILDER AS THE NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT RELAXES. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL BY WEDNESDAY.
VENT RATES WILL TAKE A HIT WITH FAIR TO POOR RATES OVER MUCH OF THE
NORTH AND WEST BOTH DAYS.

THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST FOR
THANKSGIVING. A BACK DOOR FRONT SHOULD REACH THE EAST AS WELL.
OVERALL IT WILL BE A DRY DAY WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL WEST AND BELOW
NORMAL EAST. A FEW RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS.
BLACK FRIDAY WILL BE DRY BUT CHILLY. CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS S OF NM FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER A FEW RAIN SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS AND MT
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE SW MTS FRIDAY AFTN. THEN THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS S OF HIGHWAY 60 FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIFTED INDICES NEAR AND BELOW ZERO...A FEW OF THE
CELLS ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM ROSWELL TO PORTALES COULD PRODUCE
LIGHTNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  53  22  51  27 /   5   0   0  10
DULCE...........................  51  18  47  24 /   5   0   0  20
CUBA............................  49  19  47  26 /   0   0   0  20
GALLUP..........................  54  16  53  24 /   5   0   0   5
EL MORRO........................  50  18  50  25 /   5   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  53  15  53  25 /   5   0   0   5
QUEMADO.........................  49  21  52  29 /   5   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  62  31  63  31 /   5   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  47  15  47  24 /   5   0   0  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  45  26  46  33 /   0   0   0   5
PECOS...........................  48  27  49  31 /   0   0   0   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  48  18  46  25 /   0   0   0  10
RED RIVER.......................  41  12  42  17 /   0   0   0  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  44   7  45  15 /   0   0   0  10
TAOS............................  47  18  46  24 /   0   0   0   5
MORA............................  50  23  50  30 /   0   0   0   5
ESPANOLA........................  50  26  50  26 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE........................  48  30  48  32 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  51  24  51  27 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  54  31  55  33 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  55  32  57  35 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  56  26  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  55  27  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  55  24  58  29 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  55  29  57  33 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  59  30  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  51  27  52  30 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  54  28  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  52  14  52  19 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  50  26  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  52  27  53  32 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  57  30  56  33 /   0   5   5   0
RUIDOSO.........................  57  30  56  33 /   0  10   5   0
CAPULIN.........................  52  26  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................  54  21  59  29 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  55  22  59  27 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  25  57  34 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  58  34  66  35 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  57  27  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  62  34  66  40 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  63  33  64  38 /   0   0   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  64  34  67  39 /   0   0   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  64  38  66  37 /   0   5  10   5
PORTALES........................  65  37  67  38 /   0  10  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  34  65  39 /   0   5   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  67  36  68  37 /   0  10   5   5
PICACHO.........................  63  34  63  38 /   0   5   5   5
ELK.............................  60  35  60  36 /   0  10   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

34







000
FXUS65 KABQ 210539
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1039 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS S OF NM FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER A FEW RAIN SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS AND MT
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE SW MTS FRIDAY AFTN. THEN THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS S OF HIGHWAY 60 FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIFTED INDICES NEAR AND BELOW ZERO...A FEW OF THE
CELLS ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM ROSWELL TO PORTALES COULD PRODUCE
LIGHTNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO. A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY AND
THROUGH NORTHERN OLD MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN RESULT FROM THIS SYSTEM AS SHOWERS STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK WAVE MOVING EWD THROUGH FAR SW COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...
BRINGING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS AND NOT MUCH ELSE.
A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NOT FAR BEHIND CURRENTLY MOVING
ONSHORE NEAR MONTEREY CA. 12Z MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT SLIDES SEWD THROUGH SRN AZ FRIDAY. KEPT GOING
WITH TRENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
EVENING.

MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE IS AROUND 6
HOURS FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF THE STRONG WINDS. INITIAL 700MB
SPEED MAX (~60KTS) MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NM SATURDAY EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS ARE NOW SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE
SECOND SHORT- WAVE IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. DRY SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NW NM EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW PICKING UP ON BACKDOOR NELY SURGE
TO THE FAR NE SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF NRN SANGRES EWD TO TX LINE. ALSO
INCREASED SNOW CHANCES FOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED WEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE TUSAS...WRN JEMEZ...SAN PEDRO PEAKS AREA AND WEST
FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS AS 12Z NAM AND GFS CROSS
SECTIONS ABOVE MTN TOP LEVEL THROUGH NRN NM ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
MOIST. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS (LESS THAN 3")...
HOWEVER...FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL ON TRACK AS A TRANSITION DAYS BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. 12Z GFS AND ECWMF MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS WITH REGARD THE
EASTERN PAC/WRN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY AND BLACK FRIDAY. ONGOING CONVECTION AND MODERATE SST
GRADIENT (WHICH WOULD KEEP CONVECTION GOING) IN FAR ERN PACIFIC
OCEAN CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS ACTUALLY
BACKED OFF SOME ON HOW FAR WEST THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ERN GREAT BASIN. CANADIAN MODEL AT 144HRS IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND NOW SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
STARTING TO TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF. ADDITIONALLY...RECALL THAT THE
PREVIOUS WINTER-LIKE SYSTEM THIS PAST WEEKEND LOOKED QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ECMWF FORECAST. STILL TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
MORE THAN LOW- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION AT THIS POINT
BUT CURRENT CONDITIONS DO NOT LEND MUCH CREDIBILITY TO THE OPERATIONAL
GFS SOLUTION OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE
ROCKIES ON TURKEY DAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS BY THE WEEKEND WITH WINDY TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY...

CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CENTRAL AND
NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
LIGHT BREEZES.

HIGHS WILL CREEP ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY IN THE EAST BUT REMAIN NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEST. RH VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW AREAWIDE EXCEPT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. POOR TO FAIR
VENTILATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AREAS AND PORTIONS OF
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION FOR THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL DIVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BESIDES A FEW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CLOUD COVER INCREASING AREAWIDE...NOT MUCH
ACTIVITY EXPECTED SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CRANK UP AREAWIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENTILATION IN THE EAST. STRONG WINDS WILL BE A MAJOR
FACTOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WINDS COULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AHEAD OF DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
NORMAL AREAWIDE SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
LOWERING RH VALUES FURTHER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS
THE EAST...WITH EXCELLENT VENTILATION CENTRAL AND EAST. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION MAY
INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK FROM ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 210539
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1039 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS S OF NM FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER A FEW RAIN SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS AND MT
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE SW MTS FRIDAY AFTN. THEN THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS S OF HIGHWAY 60 FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIFTED INDICES NEAR AND BELOW ZERO...A FEW OF THE
CELLS ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM ROSWELL TO PORTALES COULD PRODUCE
LIGHTNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO. A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY AND
THROUGH NORTHERN OLD MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN RESULT FROM THIS SYSTEM AS SHOWERS STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK WAVE MOVING EWD THROUGH FAR SW COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...
BRINGING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS AND NOT MUCH ELSE.
A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NOT FAR BEHIND CURRENTLY MOVING
ONSHORE NEAR MONTEREY CA. 12Z MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT SLIDES SEWD THROUGH SRN AZ FRIDAY. KEPT GOING
WITH TRENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
EVENING.

MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE IS AROUND 6
HOURS FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF THE STRONG WINDS. INITIAL 700MB
SPEED MAX (~60KTS) MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NM SATURDAY EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS ARE NOW SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE
SECOND SHORT- WAVE IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. DRY SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NW NM EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW PICKING UP ON BACKDOOR NELY SURGE
TO THE FAR NE SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF NRN SANGRES EWD TO TX LINE. ALSO
INCREASED SNOW CHANCES FOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED WEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE TUSAS...WRN JEMEZ...SAN PEDRO PEAKS AREA AND WEST
FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS AS 12Z NAM AND GFS CROSS
SECTIONS ABOVE MTN TOP LEVEL THROUGH NRN NM ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
MOIST. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS (LESS THAN 3")...
HOWEVER...FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL ON TRACK AS A TRANSITION DAYS BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. 12Z GFS AND ECWMF MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS WITH REGARD THE
EASTERN PAC/WRN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY AND BLACK FRIDAY. ONGOING CONVECTION AND MODERATE SST
GRADIENT (WHICH WOULD KEEP CONVECTION GOING) IN FAR ERN PACIFIC
OCEAN CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS ACTUALLY
BACKED OFF SOME ON HOW FAR WEST THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ERN GREAT BASIN. CANADIAN MODEL AT 144HRS IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND NOW SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
STARTING TO TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF. ADDITIONALLY...RECALL THAT THE
PREVIOUS WINTER-LIKE SYSTEM THIS PAST WEEKEND LOOKED QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ECMWF FORECAST. STILL TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
MORE THAN LOW- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION AT THIS POINT
BUT CURRENT CONDITIONS DO NOT LEND MUCH CREDIBILITY TO THE OPERATIONAL
GFS SOLUTION OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE
ROCKIES ON TURKEY DAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS BY THE WEEKEND WITH WINDY TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY...

CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CENTRAL AND
NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
LIGHT BREEZES.

HIGHS WILL CREEP ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY IN THE EAST BUT REMAIN NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEST. RH VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW AREAWIDE EXCEPT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. POOR TO FAIR
VENTILATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AREAS AND PORTIONS OF
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION FOR THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL DIVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BESIDES A FEW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CLOUD COVER INCREASING AREAWIDE...NOT MUCH
ACTIVITY EXPECTED SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CRANK UP AREAWIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENTILATION IN THE EAST. STRONG WINDS WILL BE A MAJOR
FACTOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WINDS COULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AHEAD OF DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
NORMAL AREAWIDE SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
LOWERING RH VALUES FURTHER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS
THE EAST...WITH EXCELLENT VENTILATION CENTRAL AND EAST. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION MAY
INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK FROM ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 210539
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1039 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS S OF NM FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER A FEW RAIN SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS AND MT
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE SW MTS FRIDAY AFTN. THEN THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS S OF HIGHWAY 60 FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIFTED INDICES NEAR AND BELOW ZERO...A FEW OF THE
CELLS ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM ROSWELL TO PORTALES COULD PRODUCE
LIGHTNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO. A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY AND
THROUGH NORTHERN OLD MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN RESULT FROM THIS SYSTEM AS SHOWERS STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK WAVE MOVING EWD THROUGH FAR SW COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...
BRINGING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS AND NOT MUCH ELSE.
A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NOT FAR BEHIND CURRENTLY MOVING
ONSHORE NEAR MONTEREY CA. 12Z MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT SLIDES SEWD THROUGH SRN AZ FRIDAY. KEPT GOING
WITH TRENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
EVENING.

MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE IS AROUND 6
HOURS FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF THE STRONG WINDS. INITIAL 700MB
SPEED MAX (~60KTS) MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NM SATURDAY EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS ARE NOW SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE
SECOND SHORT- WAVE IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. DRY SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NW NM EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW PICKING UP ON BACKDOOR NELY SURGE
TO THE FAR NE SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF NRN SANGRES EWD TO TX LINE. ALSO
INCREASED SNOW CHANCES FOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED WEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE TUSAS...WRN JEMEZ...SAN PEDRO PEAKS AREA AND WEST
FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS AS 12Z NAM AND GFS CROSS
SECTIONS ABOVE MTN TOP LEVEL THROUGH NRN NM ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
MOIST. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS (LESS THAN 3")...
HOWEVER...FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL ON TRACK AS A TRANSITION DAYS BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. 12Z GFS AND ECWMF MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS WITH REGARD THE
EASTERN PAC/WRN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY AND BLACK FRIDAY. ONGOING CONVECTION AND MODERATE SST
GRADIENT (WHICH WOULD KEEP CONVECTION GOING) IN FAR ERN PACIFIC
OCEAN CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS ACTUALLY
BACKED OFF SOME ON HOW FAR WEST THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ERN GREAT BASIN. CANADIAN MODEL AT 144HRS IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND NOW SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
STARTING TO TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF. ADDITIONALLY...RECALL THAT THE
PREVIOUS WINTER-LIKE SYSTEM THIS PAST WEEKEND LOOKED QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ECMWF FORECAST. STILL TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
MORE THAN LOW- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION AT THIS POINT
BUT CURRENT CONDITIONS DO NOT LEND MUCH CREDIBILITY TO THE OPERATIONAL
GFS SOLUTION OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE
ROCKIES ON TURKEY DAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS BY THE WEEKEND WITH WINDY TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY...

CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CENTRAL AND
NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
LIGHT BREEZES.

HIGHS WILL CREEP ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY IN THE EAST BUT REMAIN NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEST. RH VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW AREAWIDE EXCEPT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. POOR TO FAIR
VENTILATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AREAS AND PORTIONS OF
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION FOR THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL DIVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BESIDES A FEW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CLOUD COVER INCREASING AREAWIDE...NOT MUCH
ACTIVITY EXPECTED SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CRANK UP AREAWIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENTILATION IN THE EAST. STRONG WINDS WILL BE A MAJOR
FACTOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WINDS COULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AHEAD OF DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
NORMAL AREAWIDE SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
LOWERING RH VALUES FURTHER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS
THE EAST...WITH EXCELLENT VENTILATION CENTRAL AND EAST. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION MAY
INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK FROM ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 210539
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1039 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS S OF NM FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER A FEW RAIN SHOWERS...SNOW SHOWERS AND MT
OBSCURATIONS OVER THE SW MTS FRIDAY AFTN. THEN THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS S OF HIGHWAY 60 FRIDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIFTED INDICES NEAR AND BELOW ZERO...A FEW OF THE
CELLS ALONG AND E OF A LINE FROM ROSWELL TO PORTALES COULD PRODUCE
LIGHTNING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO. A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY AND
THROUGH NORTHERN OLD MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN RESULT FROM THIS SYSTEM AS SHOWERS STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK WAVE MOVING EWD THROUGH FAR SW COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...
BRINGING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS AND NOT MUCH ELSE.
A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NOT FAR BEHIND CURRENTLY MOVING
ONSHORE NEAR MONTEREY CA. 12Z MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT SLIDES SEWD THROUGH SRN AZ FRIDAY. KEPT GOING
WITH TRENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
EVENING.

MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE IS AROUND 6
HOURS FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF THE STRONG WINDS. INITIAL 700MB
SPEED MAX (~60KTS) MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NM SATURDAY EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS ARE NOW SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE
SECOND SHORT- WAVE IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. DRY SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NW NM EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW PICKING UP ON BACKDOOR NELY SURGE
TO THE FAR NE SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF NRN SANGRES EWD TO TX LINE. ALSO
INCREASED SNOW CHANCES FOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED WEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE TUSAS...WRN JEMEZ...SAN PEDRO PEAKS AREA AND WEST
FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS AS 12Z NAM AND GFS CROSS
SECTIONS ABOVE MTN TOP LEVEL THROUGH NRN NM ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
MOIST. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS (LESS THAN 3")...
HOWEVER...FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL ON TRACK AS A TRANSITION DAYS BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. 12Z GFS AND ECWMF MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS WITH REGARD THE
EASTERN PAC/WRN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY AND BLACK FRIDAY. ONGOING CONVECTION AND MODERATE SST
GRADIENT (WHICH WOULD KEEP CONVECTION GOING) IN FAR ERN PACIFIC
OCEAN CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS ACTUALLY
BACKED OFF SOME ON HOW FAR WEST THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ERN GREAT BASIN. CANADIAN MODEL AT 144HRS IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND NOW SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
STARTING TO TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF. ADDITIONALLY...RECALL THAT THE
PREVIOUS WINTER-LIKE SYSTEM THIS PAST WEEKEND LOOKED QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ECMWF FORECAST. STILL TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
MORE THAN LOW- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION AT THIS POINT
BUT CURRENT CONDITIONS DO NOT LEND MUCH CREDIBILITY TO THE OPERATIONAL
GFS SOLUTION OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE
ROCKIES ON TURKEY DAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS BY THE WEEKEND WITH WINDY TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY...

CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CENTRAL AND
NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
LIGHT BREEZES.

HIGHS WILL CREEP ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY IN THE EAST BUT REMAIN NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEST. RH VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW AREAWIDE EXCEPT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. POOR TO FAIR
VENTILATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AREAS AND PORTIONS OF
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION FOR THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL DIVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BESIDES A FEW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CLOUD COVER INCREASING AREAWIDE...NOT MUCH
ACTIVITY EXPECTED SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CRANK UP AREAWIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENTILATION IN THE EAST. STRONG WINDS WILL BE A MAJOR
FACTOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WINDS COULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AHEAD OF DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
NORMAL AREAWIDE SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
LOWERING RH VALUES FURTHER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS
THE EAST...WITH EXCELLENT VENTILATION CENTRAL AND EAST. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION MAY
INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK FROM ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 202355 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
455 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS S OF NM FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SW MTS
FRIDAY AFTN. THEN THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
TO MUCH OF THE AREA S OF HIGHWAY 60 FRIDAY NIGHT.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO. A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY AND
THROUGH NORTHERN OLD MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN RESULT FROM THIS SYSTEM AS SHOWERS STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK WAVE MOVING EWD THROUGH FAR SW COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...
BRINGING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS AND NOT MUCH ELSE.
A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NOT FAR BEHIND CURRENTLY MOVING
ONSHORE NEAR MONTEREY CA. 12Z MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT SLIDES SEWD THROUGH SRN AZ FRIDAY. KEPT GOING
WITH TRENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
EVENING.

MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE IS AROUND 6
HOURS FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF THE STRONG WINDS. INITIAL 700MB
SPEED MAX (~60KTS) MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NM SATURDAY EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS ARE NOW SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE
SECOND SHORT- WAVE IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. DRY SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NW NM EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW PICKING UP ON BACKDOOR NELY SURGE
TO THE FAR NE SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF NRN SANGRES EWD TO TX LINE. ALSO
INCREASED SNOW CHANCES FOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED WEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE TUSAS...WRN JEMEZ...SAN PEDRO PEAKS AREA AND WEST
FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS AS 12Z NAM AND GFS CROSS
SECTIONS ABOVE MTN TOP LEVEL THROUGH NRN NM ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
MOIST. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS (LESS THAN 3")...
HOWEVER...FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL ON TRACK AS A TRANSITION DAYS BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. 12Z GFS AND ECWMF MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS WITH REGARD THE
EASTERN PAC/WRN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY AND BLACK FRIDAY. ONGOING CONVECTION AND MODERATE SST
GRADIENT (WHICH WOULD KEEP CONVECTION GOING) IN FAR ERN PACIFIC
OCEAN CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS ACTUALLY
BACKED OFF SOME ON HOW FAR WEST THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ERN GREAT BASIN. CANADIAN MODEL AT 144HRS IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND NOW SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
STARTING TO TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF. ADDITIONALLY...RECALL THAT THE
PREVIOUS WINTER-LIKE SYSTEM THIS PAST WEEKEND LOOKED QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ECMWF FORECAST. STILL TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
MORE THAN LOW- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION AT THIS POINT
BUT CURRENT CONDITIONS DO NOT LEND MUCH CREDIBILITY TO THE OPERATIONAL
GFS SOLUTION OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE
ROCKIES ON TURKEY DAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS BY THE WEEKEND WITH WINDY TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY...

CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CENTRAL AND
NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
LIGHT BREEZES.

HIGHS WILL CREEP ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY IN THE EAST BUT REMAIN NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEST. RH VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW AREAWIDE EXCEPT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. POOR TO FAIR
VENTILATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AREAS AND PORTIONS OF
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION FOR THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL DIVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BESIDES A FEW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CLOUD COVER INCREASING AREAWIDE...NOT MUCH
ACTIVITY EXPECTED SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CRANK UP AREAWIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENTILATION IN THE EAST. STRONG WINDS WILL BE A MAJOR
FACTOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WINDS COULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AHEAD OF DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
NORMAL AREAWIDE SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
LOWERING RH VALUES FURTHER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS
THE EAST...WITH EXCELLENT VENTILATION CENTRAL AND EAST. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION MAY
INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK FROM ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 202355 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
455 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AREAWIDE UNTIL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS S OF NM FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS
SYSTEM MAY TRIGGER A FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SW MTS
FRIDAY AFTN. THEN THE CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL SPREAD
TO MUCH OF THE AREA S OF HIGHWAY 60 FRIDAY NIGHT.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO. A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY AND
THROUGH NORTHERN OLD MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN RESULT FROM THIS SYSTEM AS SHOWERS STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK WAVE MOVING EWD THROUGH FAR SW COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...
BRINGING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS AND NOT MUCH ELSE.
A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NOT FAR BEHIND CURRENTLY MOVING
ONSHORE NEAR MONTEREY CA. 12Z MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT SLIDES SEWD THROUGH SRN AZ FRIDAY. KEPT GOING
WITH TRENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
EVENING.

MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE IS AROUND 6
HOURS FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF THE STRONG WINDS. INITIAL 700MB
SPEED MAX (~60KTS) MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NM SATURDAY EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS ARE NOW SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE
SECOND SHORT- WAVE IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. DRY SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NW NM EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW PICKING UP ON BACKDOOR NELY SURGE
TO THE FAR NE SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF NRN SANGRES EWD TO TX LINE. ALSO
INCREASED SNOW CHANCES FOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED WEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE TUSAS...WRN JEMEZ...SAN PEDRO PEAKS AREA AND WEST
FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS AS 12Z NAM AND GFS CROSS
SECTIONS ABOVE MTN TOP LEVEL THROUGH NRN NM ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
MOIST. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS (LESS THAN 3")...
HOWEVER...FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL ON TRACK AS A TRANSITION DAYS BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. 12Z GFS AND ECWMF MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS WITH REGARD THE
EASTERN PAC/WRN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY AND BLACK FRIDAY. ONGOING CONVECTION AND MODERATE SST
GRADIENT (WHICH WOULD KEEP CONVECTION GOING) IN FAR ERN PACIFIC
OCEAN CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS ACTUALLY
BACKED OFF SOME ON HOW FAR WEST THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ERN GREAT BASIN. CANADIAN MODEL AT 144HRS IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND NOW SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
STARTING TO TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF. ADDITIONALLY...RECALL THAT THE
PREVIOUS WINTER-LIKE SYSTEM THIS PAST WEEKEND LOOKED QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ECMWF FORECAST. STILL TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
MORE THAN LOW- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION AT THIS POINT
BUT CURRENT CONDITIONS DO NOT LEND MUCH CREDIBILITY TO THE OPERATIONAL
GFS SOLUTION OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE
ROCKIES ON TURKEY DAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS BY THE WEEKEND WITH WINDY TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY...

CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CENTRAL AND
NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
LIGHT BREEZES.

HIGHS WILL CREEP ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY IN THE EAST BUT REMAIN NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEST. RH VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW AREAWIDE EXCEPT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. POOR TO FAIR
VENTILATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AREAS AND PORTIONS OF
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION FOR THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL DIVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BESIDES A FEW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CLOUD COVER INCREASING AREAWIDE...NOT MUCH
ACTIVITY EXPECTED SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CRANK UP AREAWIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENTILATION IN THE EAST. STRONG WINDS WILL BE A MAJOR
FACTOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WINDS COULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AHEAD OF DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
NORMAL AREAWIDE SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
LOWERING RH VALUES FURTHER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS
THE EAST...WITH EXCELLENT VENTILATION CENTRAL AND EAST. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION MAY
INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK FROM ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 202234
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
334 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO. A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY AND
THROUGH NORTHERN OLD MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN RESULT FROM THIS SYSTEM AS SHOWERS STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK WAVE MOVING EWD THROUGH FAR SW COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...
BRINGING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS AND NOT MUCH ELSE.
A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NOT FAR BEHIND CURRENTLY MOVING
ONSHORE NEAR MONTEREY CA. 12Z MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT SLIDES SEWD THROUGH SRN AZ FRIDAY. KEPT GOING
WITH TRENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
EVENING.

MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE IS AROUND 6
HOURS FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF THE STRONG WINDS. INITIAL 700MB
SPEED MAX (~60KTS) MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NM SATURDAY EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS ARE NOW SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE
SECOND SHORT- WAVE IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. DRY SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NW NM EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW PICKING UP ON BACKDOOR NELY SURGE
TO THE FAR NE SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF NRN SANGRES EWD TO TX LINE. ALSO
INCREASED SNOW CHANCES FOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED WEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE TUSAS...WRN JEMEZ...SAN PEDRO PEAKS AREA AND WEST
FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS AS 12Z NAM AND GFS CROSS
SECTIONS ABOVE MTN TOP LEVEL THROUGH NRN NM ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
MOIST. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS (LESS THAN 3")...
HOWEVER...FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL ON TRACK AS A TRANSITION DAYS BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. 12Z GFS AND ECWMF MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS WITH REGARD THE
EASTERN PAC/WRN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY AND BLACK FRIDAY. ONGOING CONVECTION AND MODERATE SST
GRADIENT (WHICH WOULD KEEP CONVECTION GOING) IN FAR ERN PACIFIC
OCEAN CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS ACTUALLY
BACKED OFF SOME ON HOW FAR WEST THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ERN GREAT BASIN. CANADIAN MODEL AT 144HRS IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND NOW SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
STARTING TO TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF. ADDITIONALLY...RECALL THAT THE
PREVIOUS WINTER-LIKE SYSTEM THIS PAST WEEKEND LOOKED QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ECMWF FORECAST. STILL TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
MORE THAN LOW- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION AT THIS POINT
BUT CURRENT CONDITIONS DO NOT LEND MUCH CREDIBILITY TO THE OPERATIONAL
GFS SOLUTION OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE
ROCKIES ON TURKEY DAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS BY THE WEEKEND WITH WINDY TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY...

CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CENTRAL AND
NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
LIGHT BREEZES.

HIGHS WILL CREEP ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY IN THE EAST BUT REMAIN NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEST. RH VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW AREAWIDE EXCEPT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. POOR TO FAIR
VENTILATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AREAS AND PORTIONS OF
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION FOR THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL DIVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BESIDES A FEW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CLOUD COVER INCREASING AREAWIDE...NOT MUCH
ACTIVITY EXPECTED SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CRANK UP AREAWIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENTILATION IN THE EAST. STRONG WINDS WILL BE A MAJOR
FACTOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WINDS COULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AHEAD OF DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
NORMAL AREAWIDE SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
LOWERING RH VALUES FURTHER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS
THE EAST...WITH EXCELLENT VENTILATION CENTRAL AND EAST. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION MAY
INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK FROM ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW BREEZES CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD
FOR TERMINAL SITES. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  21  50  23  50 /   0   5   0   0
DULCE...........................  18  51  17  46 /   0   5   5   0
CUBA............................  18  48  19  44 /   0   0   0   5
GALLUP..........................  18  49  20  50 /   0   5   0   0
EL MORRO........................  17  48  17  47 /   0   5   0   5
GRANTS..........................  18  51  19  50 /   0   5   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  25  48  25  48 /   0  10   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  29  59  30  60 /   0   5  10   5
CHAMA...........................  11  46  13  43 /   0   5   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  26  46  25  44 /   0   0   0   5
PECOS...........................  25  48  26  47 /   0   0   0   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  14  48  17  44 /   0   0   0   5
RED RIVER.......................  20  39  21  37 /   5   0   0   5
ANGEL FIRE......................   2  44   5  42 /   5   0   0   5
TAOS............................  15  47  17  44 /   0   0   0   5
MORA............................  22  49  23  49 /   0   0   0   5
ESPANOLA........................  23  49  25  47 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  29  48  29  46 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  23  50  24  47 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  29  53  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  31  55  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  25  56  27  55 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  28  56  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  25  55  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  29  56  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  30  58  30  59 /   0   0   5   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  24  49  26  48 /   0   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  22  52  24  50 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  13  54  14  50 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  25  51  26  49 /   0   0   0   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  26  52  27  51 /   0   0   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  29  56  31  54 /   0   0  10   5
RUIDOSO.........................  31  57  30  54 /   0   0  10   5
CAPULIN.........................  23  53  25  55 /   0   0   0   5
RATON...........................  17  54  20  56 /   0   0   0   5
SPRINGER........................  18  54  22  57 /   0   0   0   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  22  52  24  54 /   0   0   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  27  59  33  61 /   0   0   0   5
ROY.............................  24  57  28  59 /   0   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  30  63  35  64 /   0   0   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  31  64  34  63 /   0   0   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  28  65  35  65 /   0   0   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  31  64  38  62 /   0   0  10  10
PORTALES........................  31  65  38  64 /   0   0  10  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  30  64  36  64 /   0   0   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  30  64  37  65 /   0   0  10  10
PICACHO.........................  32  62  37  60 /   0   0  10   5
ELK.............................  33  60  36  58 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33














000
FXUS65 KABQ 202234
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
334 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO. A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY AND
THROUGH NORTHERN OLD MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN RESULT FROM THIS SYSTEM AS SHOWERS STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK WAVE MOVING EWD THROUGH FAR SW COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...
BRINGING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS AND NOT MUCH ELSE.
A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NOT FAR BEHIND CURRENTLY MOVING
ONSHORE NEAR MONTEREY CA. 12Z MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT SLIDES SEWD THROUGH SRN AZ FRIDAY. KEPT GOING
WITH TRENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
EVENING.

MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE IS AROUND 6
HOURS FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF THE STRONG WINDS. INITIAL 700MB
SPEED MAX (~60KTS) MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NM SATURDAY EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS ARE NOW SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE
SECOND SHORT- WAVE IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. DRY SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NW NM EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW PICKING UP ON BACKDOOR NELY SURGE
TO THE FAR NE SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF NRN SANGRES EWD TO TX LINE. ALSO
INCREASED SNOW CHANCES FOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED WEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE TUSAS...WRN JEMEZ...SAN PEDRO PEAKS AREA AND WEST
FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS AS 12Z NAM AND GFS CROSS
SECTIONS ABOVE MTN TOP LEVEL THROUGH NRN NM ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
MOIST. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS (LESS THAN 3")...
HOWEVER...FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL ON TRACK AS A TRANSITION DAYS BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. 12Z GFS AND ECWMF MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS WITH REGARD THE
EASTERN PAC/WRN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY AND BLACK FRIDAY. ONGOING CONVECTION AND MODERATE SST
GRADIENT (WHICH WOULD KEEP CONVECTION GOING) IN FAR ERN PACIFIC
OCEAN CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS ACTUALLY
BACKED OFF SOME ON HOW FAR WEST THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ERN GREAT BASIN. CANADIAN MODEL AT 144HRS IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND NOW SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
STARTING TO TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF. ADDITIONALLY...RECALL THAT THE
PREVIOUS WINTER-LIKE SYSTEM THIS PAST WEEKEND LOOKED QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ECMWF FORECAST. STILL TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
MORE THAN LOW- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION AT THIS POINT
BUT CURRENT CONDITIONS DO NOT LEND MUCH CREDIBILITY TO THE OPERATIONAL
GFS SOLUTION OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE
ROCKIES ON TURKEY DAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS BY THE WEEKEND WITH WINDY TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY...

CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CENTRAL AND
NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
LIGHT BREEZES.

HIGHS WILL CREEP ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY IN THE EAST BUT REMAIN NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEST. RH VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW AREAWIDE EXCEPT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. POOR TO FAIR
VENTILATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AREAS AND PORTIONS OF
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION FOR THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL DIVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BESIDES A FEW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CLOUD COVER INCREASING AREAWIDE...NOT MUCH
ACTIVITY EXPECTED SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CRANK UP AREAWIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENTILATION IN THE EAST. STRONG WINDS WILL BE A MAJOR
FACTOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WINDS COULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AHEAD OF DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
NORMAL AREAWIDE SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
LOWERING RH VALUES FURTHER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS
THE EAST...WITH EXCELLENT VENTILATION CENTRAL AND EAST. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION MAY
INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK FROM ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW BREEZES CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD
FOR TERMINAL SITES. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  21  50  23  50 /   0   5   0   0
DULCE...........................  18  51  17  46 /   0   5   5   0
CUBA............................  18  48  19  44 /   0   0   0   5
GALLUP..........................  18  49  20  50 /   0   5   0   0
EL MORRO........................  17  48  17  47 /   0   5   0   5
GRANTS..........................  18  51  19  50 /   0   5   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  25  48  25  48 /   0  10   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  29  59  30  60 /   0   5  10   5
CHAMA...........................  11  46  13  43 /   0   5   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  26  46  25  44 /   0   0   0   5
PECOS...........................  25  48  26  47 /   0   0   0   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  14  48  17  44 /   0   0   0   5
RED RIVER.......................  20  39  21  37 /   5   0   0   5
ANGEL FIRE......................   2  44   5  42 /   5   0   0   5
TAOS............................  15  47  17  44 /   0   0   0   5
MORA............................  22  49  23  49 /   0   0   0   5
ESPANOLA........................  23  49  25  47 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  29  48  29  46 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  23  50  24  47 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  29  53  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  31  55  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  25  56  27  55 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  28  56  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  25  55  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  29  56  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  30  58  30  59 /   0   0   5   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  24  49  26  48 /   0   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  22  52  24  50 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  13  54  14  50 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  25  51  26  49 /   0   0   0   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  26  52  27  51 /   0   0   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  29  56  31  54 /   0   0  10   5
RUIDOSO.........................  31  57  30  54 /   0   0  10   5
CAPULIN.........................  23  53  25  55 /   0   0   0   5
RATON...........................  17  54  20  56 /   0   0   0   5
SPRINGER........................  18  54  22  57 /   0   0   0   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  22  52  24  54 /   0   0   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  27  59  33  61 /   0   0   0   5
ROY.............................  24  57  28  59 /   0   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  30  63  35  64 /   0   0   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  31  64  34  63 /   0   0   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  28  65  35  65 /   0   0   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  31  64  38  62 /   0   0  10  10
PORTALES........................  31  65  38  64 /   0   0  10  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  30  64  36  64 /   0   0   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  30  64  37  65 /   0   0  10  10
PICACHO.........................  32  62  37  60 /   0   0  10   5
ELK.............................  33  60  36  58 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33














000
FXUS65 KABQ 202234
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
334 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO. A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY AND
THROUGH NORTHERN OLD MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN RESULT FROM THIS SYSTEM AS SHOWERS STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK WAVE MOVING EWD THROUGH FAR SW COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...
BRINGING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS AND NOT MUCH ELSE.
A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NOT FAR BEHIND CURRENTLY MOVING
ONSHORE NEAR MONTEREY CA. 12Z MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT SLIDES SEWD THROUGH SRN AZ FRIDAY. KEPT GOING
WITH TRENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
EVENING.

MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE IS AROUND 6
HOURS FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF THE STRONG WINDS. INITIAL 700MB
SPEED MAX (~60KTS) MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NM SATURDAY EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS ARE NOW SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE
SECOND SHORT- WAVE IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. DRY SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NW NM EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW PICKING UP ON BACKDOOR NELY SURGE
TO THE FAR NE SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF NRN SANGRES EWD TO TX LINE. ALSO
INCREASED SNOW CHANCES FOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED WEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE TUSAS...WRN JEMEZ...SAN PEDRO PEAKS AREA AND WEST
FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS AS 12Z NAM AND GFS CROSS
SECTIONS ABOVE MTN TOP LEVEL THROUGH NRN NM ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
MOIST. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS (LESS THAN 3")...
HOWEVER...FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL ON TRACK AS A TRANSITION DAYS BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. 12Z GFS AND ECWMF MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS WITH REGARD THE
EASTERN PAC/WRN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY AND BLACK FRIDAY. ONGOING CONVECTION AND MODERATE SST
GRADIENT (WHICH WOULD KEEP CONVECTION GOING) IN FAR ERN PACIFIC
OCEAN CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS ACTUALLY
BACKED OFF SOME ON HOW FAR WEST THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ERN GREAT BASIN. CANADIAN MODEL AT 144HRS IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND NOW SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
STARTING TO TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF. ADDITIONALLY...RECALL THAT THE
PREVIOUS WINTER-LIKE SYSTEM THIS PAST WEEKEND LOOKED QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ECMWF FORECAST. STILL TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
MORE THAN LOW- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION AT THIS POINT
BUT CURRENT CONDITIONS DO NOT LEND MUCH CREDIBILITY TO THE OPERATIONAL
GFS SOLUTION OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE
ROCKIES ON TURKEY DAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS BY THE WEEKEND WITH WINDY TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY...

CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CENTRAL AND
NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
LIGHT BREEZES.

HIGHS WILL CREEP ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY IN THE EAST BUT REMAIN NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEST. RH VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW AREAWIDE EXCEPT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. POOR TO FAIR
VENTILATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AREAS AND PORTIONS OF
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION FOR THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL DIVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BESIDES A FEW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CLOUD COVER INCREASING AREAWIDE...NOT MUCH
ACTIVITY EXPECTED SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CRANK UP AREAWIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENTILATION IN THE EAST. STRONG WINDS WILL BE A MAJOR
FACTOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WINDS COULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AHEAD OF DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
NORMAL AREAWIDE SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
LOWERING RH VALUES FURTHER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS
THE EAST...WITH EXCELLENT VENTILATION CENTRAL AND EAST. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION MAY
INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK FROM ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW BREEZES CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD
FOR TERMINAL SITES. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  21  50  23  50 /   0   5   0   0
DULCE...........................  18  51  17  46 /   0   5   5   0
CUBA............................  18  48  19  44 /   0   0   0   5
GALLUP..........................  18  49  20  50 /   0   5   0   0
EL MORRO........................  17  48  17  47 /   0   5   0   5
GRANTS..........................  18  51  19  50 /   0   5   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  25  48  25  48 /   0  10   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  29  59  30  60 /   0   5  10   5
CHAMA...........................  11  46  13  43 /   0   5   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  26  46  25  44 /   0   0   0   5
PECOS...........................  25  48  26  47 /   0   0   0   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  14  48  17  44 /   0   0   0   5
RED RIVER.......................  20  39  21  37 /   5   0   0   5
ANGEL FIRE......................   2  44   5  42 /   5   0   0   5
TAOS............................  15  47  17  44 /   0   0   0   5
MORA............................  22  49  23  49 /   0   0   0   5
ESPANOLA........................  23  49  25  47 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  29  48  29  46 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  23  50  24  47 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  29  53  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  31  55  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  25  56  27  55 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  28  56  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  25  55  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  29  56  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  30  58  30  59 /   0   0   5   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  24  49  26  48 /   0   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  22  52  24  50 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  13  54  14  50 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  25  51  26  49 /   0   0   0   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  26  52  27  51 /   0   0   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  29  56  31  54 /   0   0  10   5
RUIDOSO.........................  31  57  30  54 /   0   0  10   5
CAPULIN.........................  23  53  25  55 /   0   0   0   5
RATON...........................  17  54  20  56 /   0   0   0   5
SPRINGER........................  18  54  22  57 /   0   0   0   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  22  52  24  54 /   0   0   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  27  59  33  61 /   0   0   0   5
ROY.............................  24  57  28  59 /   0   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  30  63  35  64 /   0   0   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  31  64  34  63 /   0   0   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  28  65  35  65 /   0   0   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  31  64  38  62 /   0   0  10  10
PORTALES........................  31  65  38  64 /   0   0  10  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  30  64  36  64 /   0   0   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  30  64  37  65 /   0   0  10  10
PICACHO.........................  32  62  37  60 /   0   0  10   5
ELK.............................  33  60  36  58 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33














000
FXUS65 KABQ 202234
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
334 PM MST THU NOV 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR NIGHT WILL ALLOW FOR A RELATIVELY COLD NIGHT
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO. A PACIFIC STORM
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHERN ARIZONA FRIDAY AND
THROUGH NORTHERN OLD MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT. INCREASING MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN RESULT FROM THIS SYSTEM AS SHOWERS STAY
MAINLY SOUTH OF THE REGION. WINDS WILL BECOME THE MAIN WEATHER STORY
SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS SEVERAL FAST MOVING
SYSTEMS MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. COLDER TEMPERATURES
ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE IN BEHIND A
COLD FRONT SUNDAY...CONTINUING INTO MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY WEAK WAVE MOVING EWD THROUGH FAR SW COLORADO THIS AFTERNOON...
BRINGING SCATTERED TO BROKEN MID CLOUDS AND NOT MUCH ELSE.
A TRAILING UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NOT FAR BEHIND CURRENTLY MOVING
ONSHORE NEAR MONTEREY CA. 12Z MODELS ARE SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH
WITH THIS FEATURE AS IT SLIDES SEWD THROUGH SRN AZ FRIDAY. KEPT GOING
WITH TRENDING PRECIPITATION CHANCES DOWN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT
OVER THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES. BEST CHANCES FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS
WILL BE OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FRIDAY
EVENING.

MAIN WEATHER STORY IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE THE STRONG NORTHWEST
WINDS SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. 12Z GUIDANCE IS AROUND 6
HOURS FASTER WITH THE ONSET OF THE STRONG WINDS. INITIAL 700MB
SPEED MAX (~60KTS) MOVES THROUGH CENTRAL NM SATURDAY EVENING...CONTINUING
THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS ARE NOW SLIGHTLY SLOWER AND WEAKER WITH THE
SECOND SHORT- WAVE IN THE NWLY FLOW ALOFT FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. DRY SFC COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH NW NM EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE
DAY. ALL OPERATIONAL MODELS NOW PICKING UP ON BACKDOOR NELY SURGE
TO THE FAR NE SUNDAY. AS A RESULT...INCREASED PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF NRN SANGRES EWD TO TX LINE. ALSO
INCREASED SNOW CHANCES FOR OROGRAPHICALLY FAVORED WEST FACING
SLOPES OF THE TUSAS...WRN JEMEZ...SAN PEDRO PEAKS AREA AND WEST
FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTOS AS 12Z NAM AND GFS CROSS
SECTIONS ABOVE MTN TOP LEVEL THROUGH NRN NM ARE SLIGHTLY MORE
MOIST. STILL EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATION AMOUNTS (LESS THAN 3")...
HOWEVER...FOR SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT TIME-FRAME.

TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY STILL ON TRACK AS A TRANSITION DAYS BETWEEN
SYSTEMS. 12Z GFS AND ECWMF MODELS REMAIN AT ODDS WITH REGARD THE
EASTERN PAC/WRN NORTH AMERICAN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR THANKSGIVING
DAY AND BLACK FRIDAY. ONGOING CONVECTION AND MODERATE SST
GRADIENT (WHICH WOULD KEEP CONVECTION GOING) IN FAR ERN PACIFIC
OCEAN CONTINUES TO FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS ACTUALLY
BACKED OFF SOME ON HOW FAR WEST THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS
SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE ERN GREAT BASIN. CANADIAN MODEL AT 144HRS IN
LINE WITH THE ECMWF SOLUTION AND NOW SEVERAL GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS
STARTING TO TREND TOWARD THE ECMWF. ADDITIONALLY...RECALL THAT THE
PREVIOUS WINTER-LIKE SYSTEM THIS PAST WEEKEND LOOKED QUITE
SIMILAR TO THE CURRENT ECMWF FORECAST. STILL TOO EARLY FOR MUCH
MORE THAN LOW- MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN ANY SOLUTION AT THIS POINT
BUT CURRENT CONDITIONS DO NOT LEND MUCH CREDIBILITY TO THE OPERATIONAL
GFS SOLUTION OF A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE TRANSLATING EWD THROUGH THE
ROCKIES ON TURKEY DAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...INCREASING WESTERLY WINDS BY THE WEEKEND WITH WINDY TO VERY WINDY
CONDITIONS BY SUNDAY...

CONTINUE TO LOOK FOR AN INCREASE IN MID TO HIGH CLOUDS CENTRAL AND
NORTH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH
LIGHT BREEZES.

HIGHS WILL CREEP ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY IN THE EAST BUT REMAIN NEAR TO
BELOW NORMAL IN THE WEST. RH VALUES WILL BE VERY LOW AREAWIDE EXCEPT
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. POOR TO FAIR
VENTILATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AREAS AND PORTIONS OF
THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS...WITH FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION FOR THE WEST
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EXTREME EASTERN PLAINS.

OUR NEXT STORM SYSTEM FROM THE WEST WILL DIVE SOUTH OF THE FORECAST
AREA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. BESIDES A FEW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CLOUD COVER INCREASING AREAWIDE...NOT MUCH
ACTIVITY EXPECTED SATURDAY. HOWEVER...WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
WILL CRANK UP AREAWIDE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENTILATION IN THE EAST. STRONG WINDS WILL BE A MAJOR
FACTOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. WINDS COULD REACH ADVISORY CRITERIA
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
COULD ALSO DEVELOP SUNDAY EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
AHEAD OF DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO FALL BELOW
NORMAL AREAWIDE SUNDAY.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL
CONTINUE MONDAY AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW SWEEP ACROSS THE STATE
LOWERING RH VALUES FURTHER. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS
THE EAST...WITH EXCELLENT VENTILATION CENTRAL AND EAST. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH CHANCES FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION MAY
INCREASE LATE NEXT WEEK FROM ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS LOW TO MODERATE AT THIS POINT.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH A FEW BREEZES CONTINUING FOR THE NEXT 24 HR PERIOD
FOR TERMINAL SITES. EXPECT AN INCREASE IN WESTERLY WINDS BY THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  21  50  23  50 /   0   5   0   0
DULCE...........................  18  51  17  46 /   0   5   5   0
CUBA............................  18  48  19  44 /   0   0   0   5
GALLUP..........................  18  49  20  50 /   0   5   0   0
EL MORRO........................  17  48  17  47 /   0   5   0   5
GRANTS..........................  18  51  19  50 /   0   5   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  25  48  25  48 /   0  10   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  29  59  30  60 /   0   5  10   5
CHAMA...........................  11  46  13  43 /   0   5   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  26  46  25  44 /   0   0   0   5
PECOS...........................  25  48  26  47 /   0   0   0   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  14  48  17  44 /   0   0   0   5
RED RIVER.......................  20  39  21  37 /   5   0   0   5
ANGEL FIRE......................   2  44   5  42 /   5   0   0   5
TAOS............................  15  47  17  44 /   0   0   0   5
MORA............................  22  49  23  49 /   0   0   0   5
ESPANOLA........................  23  49  25  47 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  29  48  29  46 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  23  50  24  47 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  29  53  31  52 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  31  55  32  54 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  25  56  27  55 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  28  56  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  25  55  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  29  56  31  54 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  30  58  30  59 /   0   0   5   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  24  49  26  48 /   0   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  22  52  24  50 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  13  54  14  50 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  25  51  26  49 /   0   0   0   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  26  52  27  51 /   0   0   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  29  56  31  54 /   0   0  10   5
RUIDOSO.........................  31  57  30  54 /   0   0  10   5
CAPULIN.........................  23  53  25  55 /   0   0   0   5
RATON...........................  17  54  20  56 /   0   0   0   5
SPRINGER........................  18  54  22  57 /   0   0   0   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  22  52  24  54 /   0   0   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  27  59  33  61 /   0   0   0   5
ROY.............................  24  57  28  59 /   0   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  30  63  35  64 /   0   0   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  31  64  34  63 /   0   0   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  28  65  35  65 /   0   0   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  31  64  38  62 /   0   0  10  10
PORTALES........................  31  65  38  64 /   0   0  10  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  30  64  36  64 /   0   0   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  30  64  37  65 /   0   0  10  10
PICACHO.........................  32  62  37  60 /   0   0  10   5
ELK.............................  33  60  36  58 /   0   0  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33














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