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000
FXUS65 KABQ 180530 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1130 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF LOW CIGS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE SE PLAINS EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. A FEW HOURS OF MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPACT KROW AND EAST TO
NM/TX BORDER WITH VERY LOW CONFIDENCE THAT CLOUDS WILL PUSH FARTHER
NORTH. BREEZY GAP WINDS WILL DIMINISH WITHIN THE NEXT 5 TO 6 HRS
AT KABQ AND KSAF. AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL ADVECT MID AND
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS AREA THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. ISOLATED DRY
TSTMS WILL FORM OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT NOT EXPECTING ANY STORMS TO IMPACT TERMINAL
SITES. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AREAWIDE WITH SLIGHT DECREASES AFTER SUNSET.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...301 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS NOW DEPICT A SECONDARY
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL THEN SAG INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES NORTH OF NEW MEXICO STEERING THE JET STREAM OVERHEAD. LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONG WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING SAN DIEGO FROM THE
WEST SHOULD WEAKEN AND LIFT EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO
AS AN OPEN WAVE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT STARTING FRIDAY AS A PRECEDING SHORT
WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER...MANY OF FRIDAYS STORMS WILL BE DRY WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BECOME WETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES.

SUNDAY SHOULD SEE LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN AS A SECONDARY TROUGH SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE AREA. THIS PERTURBATION IS PROGGED TO NUDGE A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST NM...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NE PLAINS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING DESPITE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AS
THE WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEMS CROSS...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED AND FAVOR ONLY THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

AFTER THICK CLOUD COVER AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DROP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY...READINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY TREND UPWARD SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO GUST IN THE 35 TO 50
MPH RANGE TUESDAY AS THE JET STREAM APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE
NW AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
FARTHER WEDNESDAY AS THE JET STREAM SHIFTS MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
AND THE LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD ABOUND BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS
AND ACCOMPANYING LOW HUMIDITIES.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GROWING CONFIDENCE FOR A MULTI DAY SIGNIFICANT STRONG WIND/LOW
HUMIDITY PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. PEAK DAY IN
TERMS OF LOW HUMIDITY AND WIND APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALSO BE UNSTABLE WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND HAINES 5 TO 6 VALUES MOST AREAS. WILL BE MONITORING CLOUD COVER
TRENDS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT PERIOD THE MOST UNSTABLE DAY
APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
OCCUR FRIDAY AND PEAK SATURDAY. DRIER STORMS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL.

AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS A WEAK
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGHER SIDE AS SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW INCREASES
THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LOOKING FOR SOME MODEST GAP
WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE
GOOD TO EXCELLENT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. LESS SO NEAR THE AZ
BORDER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MOISTURE WILL FLOW UP FROM MEXICO AND THE GULF
STARTING FRIDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE CURRENTLY FOUND
OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA. AS THE WAVE DRAWS CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AND INITIATE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE
DRIER SIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY WEST ON
FRIDAY AND MOST LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING. ABUNDANT
DEWPOINTS THAT CURRENTLY RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS...50S...WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE THERE WAY UP INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS MOISTURE WILL FEED THE WETTER VARIETY OF STORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS VARY A LITTLE BIT ON WETTING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WEST...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY BUT FIGURE LOCALIZED WETTING RAIN WOULD OCCUR.
OTHERWISE...SOME WETTING RAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST. THE
WAVE IS STILL ON TRACK TO CROSS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
RESIDUAL IMPACTS SUNDAY. MAINLY IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS FAVORING THE NORTH. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNDRAFTS FROM SHOWERS/STORMS DURING
THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF THE WAVE
ON FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE SOME BREEZES TO THE AREA. SOME OCCASIONALLY
BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WOULD BE FOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW BUT SHOULDNT BE AS STRONG COMPARED TO FRIDAY. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE A DYNAMIC DAY ALTHOUGH NOT A CLASSIC DRY LIGHTNING FIRE
EVENT DUE TO THE LACK OF PRECEDING HEAT/DRYNESS. USING LAL 6 FOR A
COUPLE OF ZONES ACROSS THE WEST. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD BE MARGINALLY
LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS ON FRIDAY BUT BE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH AREAWIDE SATURDAY.

MODELS STILL SHOW RIDGING WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP/DRYING TREND ON
MONDAY. WIND DOESNT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS
ALOFT. CANT RULE OUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD
TO HALF. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THAT THE PAST FEW RUNS.

ALL EYES STILL REMAIN ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING A WIND EVENT SCENARIO THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE ALSO COME MORE IN LINE IN TERMS OF HOW DEEP THE TROUGH
WOULD GET WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS WOULD
BE A CLASSIC DRY PACIFIC TROUGH PASSAGE. MAINLY A WIND BAG WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING DYNAMIC DRY SLOT AND POST DRY INTRUSION. THERE IS A
SIGNATURE FOR A TIGHTENING DRY LINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. THUS MARGINALLY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES DEPICTED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH LOWER ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. RH
VALUES WILL FALL ACROSS THAT AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW TAKES ON
A MORE WESTERLY TILT TO IT ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR NORMAL
READINGS ACROSS THE FAR WEST. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH
THIS SYSTEM PASSAGE ALTHOUGH COOLING WILL TAKE OVER LATER WEDNESDAY
WEST AND PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW
AND THINKING PRETTY GOOD AT THIS POINT.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 172344 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
544 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM. SOUTHEASTERLY
TO SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS
IS BETWEEN KROW AND NM/TX BORDER TO THE EAST. LOWER CONFIDENCE IN
LOW CIGS SPREADING NORTH NEAR KTCC...THUS JUST MENTIONING A FEW
LOW CLOUDS. IF MOISTURE ADVECTION IS FAR ENOUGH NORTH AND
EAST...KLVS COULD BE IMPACTED AS WELL BUT LITTLE CONFIDENCE OF
THIS HAPPENING. WILL MONITOR BOTH SITES. EAST WINDS WILL RETURN TO
KABQ AROUND MIDNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY BE GUSTY AT TIMES. STRENGTHENING
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS EXPECTED BY THE LATE MORNING
PERIOD FRIDAY.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...301 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS NOW DEPICT A SECONDARY
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL THEN SAG INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES NORTH OF NEW MEXICO STEERING THE JET STREAM OVERHEAD. LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONG WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING SAN DIEGO FROM THE
WEST SHOULD WEAKEN AND LIFT EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO
AS AN OPEN WAVE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT STARTING FRIDAY AS A PRECEDING SHORT
WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER...MANY OF FRIDAYS STORMS WILL BE DRY WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BECOME WETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES.

SUNDAY SHOULD SEE LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN AS A SECONDARY TROUGH SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE AREA. THIS PERTURBATION IS PROGGED TO NUDGE A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST NM...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NE PLAINS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING DESPITE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AS
THE WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEMS CROSS...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED AND FAVOR ONLY THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

AFTER THICK CLOUD COVER AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DROP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY...READINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY TREND UPWARD SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO GUST IN THE 35 TO 50
MPH RANGE TUESDAY AS THE JET STREAM APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE
NW AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
FARTHER WEDNESDAY AS THE JET STREAM SHIFTS MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
AND THE LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD ABOUND BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS
AND ACCOMPANYING LOW HUMIDITIES.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GROWING CONFIDENCE FOR A MULTI DAY SIGNIFICANT STRONG WIND/LOW
HUMIDITY PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. PEAK DAY IN
TERMS OF LOW HUMIDITY AND WIND APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALSO BE UNSTABLE WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND HAINES 5 TO 6 VALUES MOST AREAS. WILL BE MONITORING CLOUD COVER
TRENDS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT PERIOD THE MOST UNSTABLE DAY
APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
OCCUR FRIDAY AND PEAK SATURDAY. DRIER STORMS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL.

AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS A WEAK
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGHER SIDE AS SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW INCREASES
THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LOOKING FOR SOME MODEST GAP
WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE
GOOD TO EXCELLENT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. LESS SO NEAR THE AZ
BORDER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MOISTURE WILL FLOW UP FROM MEXICO AND THE GULF
STARTING FRIDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE CURRENTLY FOUND
OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA. AS THE WAVE DRAWS CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AND INITIATE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE
DRIER SIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY WEST ON
FRIDAY AND MOST LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING. ABUNDANT
DEWPOINTS THAT CURRENTLY RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS...50S...WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE THERE WAY UP INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS MOISTURE WILL FEED THE WETTER VARIETY OF STORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS VARY A LITTLE BIT ON WETTING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WEST...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY BUT FIGURE LOCALIZED WETTING RAIN WOULD OCCUR.
OTHERWISE...SOME WETTING RAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST. THE
WAVE IS STILL ON TRACK TO CROSS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
RESIDUAL IMPACTS SUNDAY. MAINLY IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS FAVORING THE NORTH. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNDRAFTS FROM SHOWERS/STORMS DURING
THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF THE WAVE
ON FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE SOME BREEZES TO THE AREA. SOME OCCASIONALLY
BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WOULD BE FOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW BUT SHOULDNT BE AS STRONG COMPARED TO FRIDAY. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE A DYNAMIC DAY ALTHOUGH NOT A CLASSIC DRY LIGHTNING FIRE
EVENT DUE TO THE LACK OF PRECEDING HEAT/DRYNESS. USING LAL 6 FOR A
COUPLE OF ZONES ACROSS THE WEST. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD BE MARGINALLY
LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS ON FRIDAY BUT BE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH AREAWIDE SATURDAY.

MODELS STILL SHOW RIDGING WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP/DRYING TREND ON
MONDAY. WIND DOESNT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS
ALOFT. CANT RULE OUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD
TO HALF. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THAT THE PAST FEW RUNS.

ALL EYES STILL REMAIN ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING A WIND EVENT SCENARIO THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE ALSO COME MORE IN LINE IN TERMS OF HOW DEEP THE TROUGH
WOULD GET WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS WOULD
BE A CLASSIC DRY PACIFIC TROUGH PASSAGE. MAINLY A WIND BAG WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING DYNAMIC DRY SLOT AND POST DRY INTRUSION. THERE IS A
SIGNATURE FOR A TIGHTENING DRY LINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. THUS MARGINALLY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES DEPICTED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH LOWER ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. RH
VALUES WILL FALL ACROSS THAT AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW TAKES ON
A MORE WESTERLY TILT TO IT ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR NORMAL
READINGS ACROSS THE FAR WEST. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH
THIS SYSTEM PASSAGE ALTHOUGH COOLING WILL TAKE OVER LATER WEDNESDAY
WEST AND PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW
AND THINKING PRETTY GOOD AT THIS POINT.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 172101
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
301 PM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING FROM THE WEST WILL BRING
PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS NOW DEPICT A SECONDARY
TROUGH DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL THEN SAG INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY KEEPING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE FORECAST FOR
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST PLAINS THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY AND
ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AS A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES NORTH OF NEW MEXICO STEERING THE JET STREAM OVERHEAD. LOW
HUMIDITIES WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONG WINDS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
LEADING TO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHING SAN DIEGO FROM THE
WEST SHOULD WEAKEN AND LIFT EAST NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO
AS AN OPEN WAVE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM
A SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL RETURN FLOW IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT
BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY EASTERN
PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT STARTING FRIDAY AS A PRECEDING SHORT
WAVE CROSSES NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST.
HOWEVER...MANY OF FRIDAYS STORMS WILL BE DRY WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BECOME WETTER AND MORE
WIDESPREAD FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...BEFORE DECREASING IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROUGH CROSSES.

SUNDAY SHOULD SEE LIGHT PRECIPITATION CHANCES BECOME
MORE WIDESPREAD AGAIN AS A SECONDARY TROUGH SAGS SOUTHEASTWARD
OVER THE AREA. THIS PERTURBATION IS PROGGED TO NUDGE A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHEAST NM...WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NE PLAINS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING DESPITE A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSING ALOFT.
TEMPERATURES AT 700 MB ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AS
THE WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEMS CROSS...SO ANY SNOW ACCUMULATION
SHOULD BE LIMITED AND FAVOR ONLY THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN PEAKS.

AFTER THICK CLOUD COVER AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION DROP
TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY...READINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY TREND UPWARD SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALSO BEGIN TO GUST IN THE 35 TO 50
MPH RANGE TUESDAY AS THE JET STREAM APPROACHES THE STATE FROM THE
NW AND A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AT THE SURFACE. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
FARTHER WEDNESDAY AS THE JET STREAM SHIFTS MORE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD
AND THE LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO DEEPEN. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
SHOULD ABOUND BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE STRONG WINDS
AND ACCOMPANYING LOW HUMIDITIES.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GROWING CONFIDENCE FOR A MULTI DAY SIGNIFICANT STRONG WIND/LOW
HUMIDITY PERIOD TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY OF NEXT WEEK. PEAK DAY IN
TERMS OF LOW HUMIDITY AND WIND APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY. THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD ALSO BE UNSTABLE WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS
AND HAINES 5 TO 6 VALUES MOST AREAS. WILL BE MONITORING CLOUD COVER
TRENDS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT PERIOD THE MOST UNSTABLE DAY
APPEARS TO BE TUESDAY. INCREASED MOISTURE AND THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
OCCUR FRIDAY AND PEAK SATURDAY. DRIER STORMS ON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
EVENING WITH STRONG DOWNBURST WIND POTENTIAL.

AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY...SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR AS A WEAK
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WILL REMAIN ON THE HIGHER SIDE AS SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW INCREASES
THIS EVENING AND DURING THE OVERNIGHT. LOOKING FOR SOME MODEST GAP
WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS A RESULT. RH RECOVERIES WILL BE
GOOD TO EXCELLENT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF. LESS SO NEAR THE AZ
BORDER.

AS MENTIONED ABOVE...MOISTURE WILL FLOW UP FROM MEXICO AND THE GULF
STARTING FRIDAY. THIS IS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAK WAVE CURRENTLY FOUND
OFF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF CALIFORNIA. AS THE WAVE DRAWS CLOSER TO
THE FORECAST AREA...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL DESTABILIZE AND INITIATE
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE ACTIVITY WILL BE ON THE
DRIER SIDE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS...ESPECIALLY WEST ON
FRIDAY AND MOST LIKELY LINGER INTO SATURDAY EVENING. ABUNDANT
DEWPOINTS THAT CURRENTLY RESIDE OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS...50S...WILL
EVENTUALLY MAKE THERE WAY UP INTO EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA. THIS MOISTURE WILL FEED THE WETTER VARIETY OF STORMS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. MODELS VARY A LITTLE BIT ON WETTING
PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL ACROSS THE WEST...ESPECIALLY NORTHWEST ON
SATURDAY BUT FIGURE LOCALIZED WETTING RAIN WOULD OCCUR.
OTHERWISE...SOME WETTING RAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EAST. THE
WAVE IS STILL ON TRACK TO CROSS OVER THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WITH SOME
RESIDUAL IMPACTS SUNDAY. MAINLY IN THE FORM OF ISOLATED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED INSTABILITY SHOWERS FAVORING THE NORTH. THE STRONGEST
WINDS WOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH DOWNDRAFTS FROM SHOWERS/STORMS DURING
THIS PERIOD ALTHOUGH STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY WIND AHEAD OF THE WAVE
ON FRIDAY WILL PROVIDE SOME BREEZES TO THE AREA. SOME OCCASIONALLY
BREEZY WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS WOULD BE FOUND ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
DEPARTING LOW BUT SHOULDNT BE AS STRONG COMPARED TO FRIDAY. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE A DYNAMIC DAY ALTHOUGH NOT A CLASSIC DRY LIGHTNING FIRE
EVENT DUE TO THE LACK OF PRECEDING HEAT/DRYNESS. USING LAL 6 FOR A
COUPLE OF ZONES ACROSS THE WEST. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD BE MARGINALLY
LOW ACROSS THE WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS ON FRIDAY BUT BE UNSEASONABLY
HIGH AREAWIDE SATURDAY.

MODELS STILL SHOW RIDGING WITH A SLIGHT WARMUP/DRYING TREND ON
MONDAY. WIND DOESNT LOOK TO BE MUCH OF A FACTOR DUE TO LIGHTER WINDS
ALOFT. CANT RULE OUT SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD
TO HALF. MODELS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THAT THE PAST FEW RUNS.

ALL EYES STILL REMAIN ON TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING A WIND EVENT SCENARIO THE PAST SEVERAL RUNS. GFS AND
ECMWF HAVE ALSO COME MORE IN LINE IN TERMS OF HOW DEEP THE TROUGH
WOULD GET WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY. THE CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS WOULD
BE A CLASSIC DRY PACIFIC TROUGH PASSAGE. MAINLY A WIND BAG WITH AN
ACCOMPANYING DYNAMIC DRY SLOT AND POST DRY INTRUSION. THERE IS A
SIGNATURE FOR A TIGHTENING DRY LINE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES. THUS MARGINALLY LOW
HUMIDITY VALUES DEPICTED IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. MUCH LOWER ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. RH
VALUES WILL FALL ACROSS THAT AREA ON WEDNESDAY AS THE FLOW TAKES ON
A MORE WESTERLY TILT TO IT ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES COOL TO NEAR NORMAL
READINGS ACROSS THE FAR WEST. SHOULD BE PLENTY OF INSTABILITY WITH
THIS SYSTEM PASSAGE ALTHOUGH COOLING WILL TAKE OVER LATER WEDNESDAY
WEST AND PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE CONTINUES TO GROW
AND THINKING PRETTY GOOD AT THIS POINT.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CLOUD CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL COME DOWN AS THE COLD
FRONT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND LOW CIGS SHOULD SPREAD INTO
SOUTHEAST AND PERHAPS EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA LATER
TONIGHT. CURRENTLY PLACED MVFR CIGS AT ROW. WILL WATCH TCC.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  39  78  45  67 /   0   5  30  30
DULCE...........................  27  72  36  63 /   0  10  40  40
CUBA............................  32  70  37  63 /   0  10  50  50
GALLUP..........................  34  74  37  66 /   0  10  30  30
EL MORRO........................  28  67  29  60 /   0  20  30  30
GRANTS..........................  33  71  37  65 /   0  20  30  30
QUEMADO.........................  39  69  39  61 /   0  20  30  30
GLENWOOD........................  34  75  32  71 /   0  10  30  30
CHAMA...........................  28  66  34  58 /   0  20  50  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  41  69  47  62 /   0  10  40  40
PECOS...........................  37  66  42  61 /   0  10  40  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  28  70  36  65 /   0  10  30  40
RED RIVER.......................  30  57  31  51 /   0  10  30  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  25  62  32  57 /   0  10  30  40
TAOS............................  29  71  37  64 /   0   5  30  30
MORA............................  35  68  41  63 /   0  10  30  30
ESPANOLA........................  37  76  42  69 /   0   5  30  30
SANTA FE........................  39  68  44  63 /   0  10  30  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  36  73  42  68 /   0   5  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  47  74  52  69 /   0   5  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  47  76  52  71 /   0   5  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  43  78  49  72 /   0   0  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  45  78  50  72 /   0   5  30  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  40  79  44  73 /   0   5  30  30
RIO RANCHO......................  44  77  50  72 /   0   5  30  30
SOCORRO.........................  47  78  50  73 /   0  10  30  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  40  71  46  68 /   0   5  30  30
TIJERAS.........................  41  71  48  67 /   0   5  30  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  30  72  39  67 /   0   5  30  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  36  69  40  65 /   0  10  30  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  41  71  46  67 /   0  10  30  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  43  74  48  70 /   0  10  30  30
RUIDOSO.........................  38  67  44  64 /   0  30  30  30
CAPULIN.........................  34  67  44  66 /   0   5  10  50
RATON...........................  32  73  42  71 /   0   5  20  30
SPRINGER........................  34  74  44  71 /   0   5  20  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  35  71  44  68 /   0  10  20  30
CLAYTON.........................  40  74  50  74 /   0   5   5  20
ROY.............................  37  70  47  70 /   0   5  10  20
CONCHAS.........................  42  76  53  76 /   0   5  20  20
SANTA ROSA......................  41  75  51  75 /   0   5  20  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  41  78  53  79 /   0   5  10  20
CLOVIS..........................  40  74  50  75 /   0   5  10  30
PORTALES........................  41  75  53  76 /   0   5  20  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  44  76  54  77 /   0   5  20  30
ROSWELL.........................  44  77  53  78 /   0   5  30  30
PICACHO.........................  42  74  51  73 /   0  10  30  30
ELK.............................  39  70  49  68 /   0  30  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44






000
FXUS65 KABQ 171740 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1140 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CLOUD CONDITIONS ALONG THE FRONT RANGE OF THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND ADJACENT NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. WIND SPEEDS WILL COME DOWN AS THE COLD
FRONT LOOSENS ITS GRIP ON THE AREA. RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND LOW CIGS SHOULD SPREAD INTO
SOUTHEAST AND PERHAPS EAST CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA LATER
TONIGHT. CURRENTLY PLACED MVFR CIGS AT ROW. WILL WATCH TCC.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...638 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED ZFP TO REMOVE WIND ADVOSRY AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WORDING.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO CENTRAL AND PRIMARILY EAST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
MOVED THROUGH NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO LAST NIGHT. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWEST
INTO THE STATE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SPOT MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH NEW MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT.
ON SUNDAY...REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
MONDAY...RESULTING IN DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
NORTHEAST NM HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY WARMING DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. SUSPECT THE LIGHT SNOW AT RATON AND LIGHT RAIN AT LAS VEGAS
WILL END SHORTLY AS A RESULT OF THE RAPID CLOUD TOP WARMING AS
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES THE TOP-DOWN DRY OUT.
COOLER DAY IN STORE TODAY...PRIMARILY FOR THE EAST WHERE COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES THERE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.

TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AROUND MID-DAY FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...PRESSURES FALL TO OUR
WEST ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL CLOSED LOW MOVING
OVER SAN DIEGO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RESULT AND BEGIN TO TRANSPORT
GULF MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID- LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE IN
THE SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY MOUNTAINS...FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER LOW FILLS SOMEWHAT AND OPENS UP INTO
AN OPEN WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
BEST ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER
NW AND SE NM

SATURDAY LOOKS THE MOST ACTIVE DAY AREA-WIDE WITH THE BEST LOW AND
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH BETTER 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES. TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ENOUGH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
DECENT INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE NE
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
INSIST ON ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST DESPITE A RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. SUSPECT
THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE A BIT TOO DRY AS WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR
MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES WEST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WITH A FEW
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
CREST. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE STATE TUESDAY SPELLING THE
RETURN OF STRONG/WINDY AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE REDUCED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS RH VALUES AND CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN INCREASE INTO THE
WEEKEND.  DRIER AND WINDIER NEXT WORK WITH WITH A RETURN TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOKING POSSIBLE NEXT TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY THROUGH EASTERN PLAINS. WEST TO EAST
SURFACE GRADIENT NOT VERY STRONG AND GAP WINDS ARE A LITTLE SLOW TO
GET GOING. STILL...EXPECT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS MORNING. WETTING
PRECIPITATION FAIRLY LIMITED WITH SOME OVERNIGHT SNOW OVER THE
SANGRES AND THE RATON AREA AND SOUTH TO LAS VEGAS...WHERE RH
RECOVERIES ARE EXCELLENT. EXPECTING GOOD TO FAIR VALUES ELSEWHERE.

COOLER WITH INCREASED RH MOST AREAS TODAY ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN
PLAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE EXTREME WEST WHERE RH VALUES
COULD STILL DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT. LOW LEVEL EAST FLOW TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE EAST WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WEST WINDS ACROSS THE WEST.
MIXING HEIGHTS STAYS FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS THE WEST WHERE VENTILATION
SHOULD BE VERY GOOD WHEREAS MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST
SUPPORT MAINLY GOOD VENTILATION RATES.OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO BE
GOOD EAST AND FAIR TO GOOD ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION INCREASE ON FRIDAY...FAVORING THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER
CALIFORNIA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM AND TEMPS REBOUND BUT BOTH WIND AND RH VALUES REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THUNDERSTORMS...SOME DRY...ARE POSSIBLE WEST..

THE UPPER LOW CROSSES NEW MEXICO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST. GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH FAIR RECOVERIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL
VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A FAST MOVING AND DRIER SYSTEM APPROACHES.  MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AND WINDS INCREASE BOTH TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY. WITH HIGH HAINES OF 6 AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 171238 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
638 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED ZFP TO REMOVE WIND ADVOSRY AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
WORDING.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...548 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR FRONT...BKN-OVC030-050 CLOUD DECK
EXTENDS FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE TEXAS
BORDER INCLUDING KRTN...KLVS AND KCAO. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL...WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 15Z. CIGS COULD MOVE INTO THE KTCC AREA AS
WELL. CLOUD COVER SHOULD ERODE STEADILY THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
RELAX. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
INCLUDING KCVS AND KROW WHERE LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO CENTRAL AND PRIMARILY EAST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
MOVED THROUGH NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO LAST NIGHT. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWEST
INTO THE STATE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SPOT MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH NEW MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT.
ON SUNDAY...REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
MONDAY...RESULTING IN DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
NORTHEAST NM HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY WARMING DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. SUSPECT THE LIGHT SNOW AT RATON AND LIGHT RAIN AT LAS VEGAS
WILL END SHORTLY AS A RESULT OF THE RAPID CLOUD TOP WARMING AS
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES THE TOP-DOWN DRY OUT.
COOLER DAY IN STORE TODAY...PRIMARILY FOR THE EAST WHERE COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES THERE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.

TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AROUND MID-DAY FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...PRESSURES FALL TO OUR
WEST ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL CLOSED LOW MOVING
OVER SAN DIEGO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RESULT AND BEGIN TO TRANSPORT
GULF MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID- LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE IN
THE SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY MOUNTAINS...FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER LOW FILLS SOMEWHAT AND OPENS UP INTO
AN OPEN WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
BEST ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER
NW AND SE NM

SATURDAY LOOKS THE MOST ACTIVE DAY AREA-WIDE WITH THE BEST LOW AND
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH BETTER 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES. TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ENOUGH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
DECENT INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE NE
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
INSIST ON ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST DESPITE A RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. SUSPECT
THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE A BIT TOO DRY AS WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR
MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES WEST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WITH A FEW
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
CREST. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE STATE TUESDAY SPELLING THE
RETURN OF STRONG/WINDY AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE REDUCED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS RH VALUES AND CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN INCREASE INTO THE
WEEKEND.  DRIER AND WINDIER NEXT WORK WITH WITH A RETURN TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOKING POSSIBLE NEXT TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY THROUGH EASTERN PLAINS. WEST TO EAST
SURFACE GRADIENT NOT VERY STRONG AND GAP WINDS ARE A LITTLE SLOW TO
GET GOING. STILL...EXPECT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS MORNING. WETTING
PRECIPITATION FAIRLY LIMITED WITH SOME OVERNIGHT SNOW OVER THE
SANGRES AND THE RATON AREA AND SOUTH TO LAS VEGAS...WHERE RH
RECOVERIES ARE EXCELLENT. EXPECTING GOOD TO FAIR VALUES ELSEWHERE.

COOLER WITH INCREASED RH MOST AREAS TODAY ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN
PLAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE EXTREME WEST WHERE RH VALUES
COULD STILL DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT. LOW LEVEL EAST FLOW TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE EAST WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WEST WINDS ACROSS THE WEST.
MIXING HEIGHTS STAYS FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS THE WEST WHERE VENTILATION
SHOULD BE VERY GOOD WHEREAS MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST
SUPPORT MAINLY GOOD VENTILATION RATES.OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO BE
GOOD EAST AND FAIR TO GOOD ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION INCREASE ON FRIDAY...FAVORING THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER
CALIFORNIA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM AND TEMPS REBOUND BUT BOTH WIND AND RH VALUES REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THUNDERSTORMS...SOME DRY...ARE POSSIBLE WEST..

THE UPPER LOW CROSSES NEW MEXICO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST. GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH FAIR RECOVERIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL
VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A FAST MOVING AND DRIER SYSTEM APPROACHES.  MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AND WINDS INCREASE BOTH TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY. WITH HIGH HAINES OF 6 AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33









000
FXUS65 KABQ 171148 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
IN THE WAKE OF A BACK DOOR FRONT...BKN-OVC030-050 CLOUD DECK
EXTENDS FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS EAST TO THE TEXAS
BORDER INCLUDING KRTN...KLVS AND KCAO. SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WILL LINGER OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AS WELL...WITH LOCAL MVFR CIGS
AND VSBYS THROUGH AROUND 15Z. CIGS COULD MOVE INTO THE KTCC AREA AS
WELL. CLOUD COVER SHOULD ERODE STEADILY THIS MORNING. GUSTY NORTH
TO NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL ALSO GRADUALLY
RELAX. ELSEWHERE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH PERIOD WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
INCLUDING KCVS AND KROW WHERE LOW CLOUDS COULD DEVELOP EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO CENTRAL AND PRIMARILY EAST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
MOVED THROUGH NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO LAST NIGHT. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWEST
INTO THE STATE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SPOT MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH NEW MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT.
ON SUNDAY...REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
MONDAY...RESULTING IN DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
NORTHEAST NM HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY WARMING DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. SUSPECT THE LIGHT SNOW AT RATON AND LIGHT RAIN AT LAS VEGAS
WILL END SHORTLY AS A RESULT OF THE RAPID CLOUD TOP WARMING AS
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES THE TOP-DOWN DRY OUT.
COOLER DAY IN STORE TODAY...PRIMARILY FOR THE EAST WHERE COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES THERE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.

TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AROUND MID-DAY FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...PRESSURES FALL TO OUR
WEST ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL CLOSED LOW MOVING
OVER SAN DIEGO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RESULT AND BEGIN TO TRANSPORT
GULF MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID- LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE IN
THE SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY MOUNTAINS...FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER LOW FILLS SOMEWHAT AND OPENS UP INTO
AN OPEN WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
BEST ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER
NW AND SE NM

SATURDAY LOOKS THE MOST ACTIVE DAY AREA-WIDE WITH THE BEST LOW AND
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH BETTER 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES. TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ENOUGH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
DECENT INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE NE
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
INSIST ON ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST DESPITE A RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. SUSPECT
THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE A BIT TOO DRY AS WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR
MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES WEST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WITH A FEW
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
CREST. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE STATE TUESDAY SPELLING THE
RETURN OF STRONG/WINDY AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE REDUCED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS RH VALUES AND CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN INCREASE INTO THE
WEEKEND.  DRIER AND WINDIER NEXT WORK WITH WITH A RETURN TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOKING POSSIBLE NEXT TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY THROUGH EASTERN PLAINS. WEST TO EAST
SURFACE GRADIENT NOT VERY STRONG AND GAP WINDS ARE A LITTLE SLOW TO
GET GOING. STILL...EXPECT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS MORNING. WETTING
PRECIPITATION FAIRLY LIMITED WITH SOME OVERNIGHT SNOW OVER THE
SANGRES AND THE RATON AREA AND SOUTH TO LAS VEGAS...WHERE RH
RECOVERIES ARE EXCELLENT. EXPECTING GOOD TO FAIR VALUES ELSEWHERE.

COOLER WITH INCREASED RH MOST AREAS TODAY ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN
PLAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE EXTREME WEST WHERE RH VALUES
COULD STILL DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT. LOW LEVEL EAST FLOW TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE EAST WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WEST WINDS ACROSS THE WEST.
MIXING HEIGHTS STAYS FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS THE WEST WHERE VENTILATION
SHOULD BE VERY GOOD WHEREAS MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST
SUPPORT MAINLY GOOD VENTILATION RATES.OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO BE
GOOD EAST AND FAIR TO GOOD ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION INCREASE ON FRIDAY...FAVORING THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER
CALIFORNIA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM AND TEMPS REBOUND BUT BOTH WIND AND RH VALUES REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THUNDERSTORMS...SOME DRY...ARE POSSIBLE WEST..

THE UPPER LOW CROSSES NEW MEXICO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST. GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH FAIR RECOVERIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL
VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A FAST MOVING AND DRIER SYSTEM APPROACHES.  MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AND WINDS INCREASE BOTH TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY. WITH HIGH HAINES OF 6 AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ531-532-534>536.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513-515-527.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 170933
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
333 AM MDT THU APR 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AIR WILL FILTER INTO CENTRAL AND PRIMARILY EAST-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY IN THE WAKE OF THE STORM SYSTEM THAT
MOVED THROUGH NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO LAST NIGHT. AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
SLIDES SOUTH INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...SOUTHEAST
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE NORTHWEST
INTO THE STATE AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM
THE GULF OF MEXICO AS WELL AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH
THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL RESULT IN MAINLY SPOT MOUNTAIN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE
UPPER LOW SLOWLY MOVES THROUGH NEW MEXICO FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RESULT.
ON SUNDAY...REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN AT LEAST
SLIGHT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION
MONDAY...RESULTING IN DRIER AND WARMER CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SLIGHT
CHANCES FOR LIGHT AFTERNOON SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING THROUGH
NORTHEAST NM HAVE BEEN RAPIDLY WARMING DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS. SUSPECT THE LIGHT SNOW AT RATON AND LIGHT RAIN AT LAS VEGAS
WILL END SHORTLY AS A RESULT OF THE RAPID CLOUD TOP WARMING AS
SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS CONTINUES THE TOP-DOWN DRY OUT.
COOLER DAY IN STORE TODAY...PRIMARILY FOR THE EAST WHERE COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUES THERE THROUGH AT LEAST MIDDAY.

TRANSITORY UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS IN RAPIDLY FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
WITH THE RIDGE AXIS SLIDING EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AROUND MID-DAY FRIDAY. AT THE SURFACE...PRESSURES FALL TO OUR
WEST ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SUBTROPICAL CLOSED LOW MOVING
OVER SAN DIEGO. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE AND SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RESULT AND BEGIN TO TRANSPORT
GULF MOISTURE NORTHWESTWARD TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE
INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND MID- LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE IN
THE SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE TROUGH EXPECTED TO RESULT IN
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY MOUNTAINS...FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPPER LOW FILLS SOMEWHAT AND OPENS UP INTO
AN OPEN WAVE FRIDAY NIGHT. NAM AND GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE
BEST ATMOSPHERIC LIFT AND INSTABILITY FRIDAY NIGHT WILL BE OVER
NW AND SE NM

SATURDAY LOOKS THE MOST ACTIVE DAY AREA-WIDE WITH THE BEST LOW AND
MID-LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE ALONG WITH BETTER 700-500 MB LAPSE
RATES. TROUGH AXIS FINALLY SLIDES THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. ENOUGH
RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING AND
DECENT INSTABILITY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EASTWARD TO THE NE
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THERE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO
INSIST ON ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON OVER THE
FAR NORTH-CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST DESPITE A RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD. SUSPECT
THE LOW LEVELS WILL BE A BIT TOO DRY AS WESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS FOR
MORE THAN A FEW SPRINKLES WEST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS WITH A FEW
LIGHT TO MODERATE SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
CREST. RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OF THE STATE TUESDAY SPELLING THE
RETURN OF STRONG/WINDY AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW FOR TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD BE REDUCED THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS RH VALUES AND CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN INCREASE INTO THE
WEEKEND.  DRIER AND WINDIER NEXT WORK WITH WITH A RETURN TO CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS LOOKING POSSIBLE NEXT TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT CURRENTLY THROUGH EASTERN PLAINS. WEST TO EAST
SURFACE GRADIENT NOT VERY STRONG AND GAP WINDS ARE A LITTLE SLOW TO
GET GOING. STILL...EXPECT MOISTURE TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE
CENTRAL VALLEYS TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS MORNING. WETTING
PRECIPITATION FAIRLY LIMITED WITH SOME OVERNIGHT SNOW OVER THE
SANGRES AND THE RATON AREA AND SOUTH TO LAS VEGAS...WHERE RH
RECOVERIES ARE EXCELLENT. EXPECTING GOOD TO FAIR VALUES ELSEWHERE.

COOLER WITH INCREASED RH MOST AREAS TODAY ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN
PLAIN. LITTLE CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE EXTREME WEST WHERE RH VALUES
COULD STILL DIP BELOW 15 PERCENT. LOW LEVEL EAST FLOW TO PERSIST
ACROSS THE EAST WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WEST WINDS ACROSS THE WEST.
MIXING HEIGHTS STAYS FAIRLY HIGH ACROSS THE WEST WHERE VENTILATION
SHOULD BE VERY GOOD WHEREAS MORE STABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST
SUPPORT MAINLY GOOD VENTILATION RATES.OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO BE
GOOD EAST AND FAIR TO GOOD ELSEWHERE.

CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION INCREASE ON FRIDAY...FAVORING THE
WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...AS AN UPPER LOW MOVES OVER
CALIFORNIA. SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF THE
SYSTEM AND TEMPS REBOUND BUT BOTH WIND AND RH VALUES REMAIN BELOW
CRITICAL THRESHOLDS. THUNDERSTORMS...SOME DRY...ARE POSSIBLE WEST..

THE UPPER LOW CROSSES NEW MEXICO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SHIFTING FROM WEST TO EAST. GOOD TO EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES SATURDAY
NIGHT WITH FAIR RECOVERIES ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE WEST AND CENTRAL
VALLEYS SUNDAY NIGHT.

SHORTWAVE RIDGING ON MONDAY WILL SHIFT TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY AS A FAST MOVING AND DRIER SYSTEM APPROACHES.  MOISTURE
LOOKS TO BE LIMITED AND WINDS INCREASE BOTH TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY. WITH HIGH HAINES OF 6 AND TEMPERATURES ABOVE SEASONAL
NORMALS...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SFC CDFNT STRETCHING FROM KAXX THRU K0E0 TO KROW AT 05Z TO
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY WWD...POSSIBLY INTO THE RGV ON
RELATIVELY LIGHT EASTERLY WIND. LCL MAINLY MVFR CIGS OBSCG HIGHER
TERRAIN DVLPG ALONG THE EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MT CHAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...UPR TROF SWEEPING FROM NW TO SE
OVR NM TRIGGERING SCT -SHRASN FROM THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE
CRISTO MTS ACROSS RATON RIDGE AND TO THE OK BORDER AS WELL AS SE
TO THE KCVS AREA BETWEEN 17/06Z AND 17/18Z. LCL MVFR TO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN PRECIPITATION MOST LIKELY NEAR THE CO BORDER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  69  39  77  45 /   0   0   5  30
DULCE...........................  64  25  71  35 /   0   0  20  40
CUBA............................  64  31  70  37 /   0   0  10  50
GALLUP..........................  70  34  74  37 /   0   0  10  40
EL MORRO........................  64  25  67  29 /   0   0  30  50
GRANTS..........................  69  32  71  37 /   0   0  20  30
QUEMADO.........................  67  38  69  39 /   0   0  20  30
GLENWOOD........................  77  34  75  33 /   0   0  20  20
CHAMA...........................  58  28  66  34 /   0   0  20  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  61  41  68  47 /   0   0  10  30
PECOS...........................  57  37  66  42 /   0   0  20  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  61  29  70  36 /   5   0  10  30
RED RIVER.......................  48  30  57  31 /  10   0  20  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  52  24  62  30 /  10   0  10  40
TAOS............................  61  28  71  37 /   0   0  10  40
MORA............................  56  35  68  41 /   5   0  10  40
ESPANOLA........................  68  36  75  41 /   0   0  10  30
SANTA FE........................  60  39  69  44 /   0   0  10  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  65  35  73  42 /   0   0  10  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  68  44  74  48 /   0   0   5  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  70  46  76  50 /   0   0   5  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  72  41  78  47 /   0   0   0  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  70  44  77  48 /   0   0   5  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  72  39  79  42 /   0   0   5  20
RIO RANCHO......................  71  44  77  48 /   0   0   5  20
SOCORRO.........................  75  48  78  48 /   0   0  10  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  65  37  70  43 /   0   0  10  30
TIJERAS.........................  64  39  71  44 /   0   0  10  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  63  27  73  39 /   0   0   5  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  60  36  69  40 /   0   0  20  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  65  41  72  44 /   0   0  10  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  69  44  74  46 /   0   0  10  20
RUIDOSO.........................  63  38  67  41 /   0   0  30  30
CAPULIN.........................  51  36  68  44 /  20   0   5  10
RATON...........................  58  34  74  42 /  20   0   5  20
SPRINGER........................  59  35  74  44 /  10   0   5  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  58  35  71  43 /   5   0  20  40
CLAYTON.........................  57  41  74  52 /  20   0   5  10
ROY.............................  56  38  70  47 /  10   0   5  20
CONCHAS.........................  63  44  76  54 /   5   0   5  20
SANTA ROSA......................  63  41  75  51 /   0   0   5  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  64  43  78  55 /   0   0   5  20
CLOVIS..........................  63  41  74  50 /   0   0   5  20
PORTALES........................  68  42  75  52 /   0   0   5  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  66  45  75  54 /   0   0   5  30
ROSWELL.........................  72  45  77  53 /   0   0   5  20
PICACHO.........................  67  43  74  50 /   0   0  20  20
ELK.............................  64  40  70  47 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ531-532-534>536.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513-515-527.

&&

$$

33









000
FXUS65 KABQ 170543
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SFC CDFNT STRETCHING FROM KAXX THRU K0E0 TO KROW AT 05Z TO
CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH AND SLIGHTLY WWD...POSSIBLY INTO THE RGV ON
RELATIVELY LIGHT EASTERLY WIND. LCL MAINLY MVFR CIGS OBSCG HIGHER
TERRAIN DVLPG ALONG THE EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MT CHAIN ASSOCIATED
WITH THE FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...UPR TROF SWEEPING FROM NW TO SE
OVR NM TRIGGERING SCT -SHRASN FROM THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE
CRISTO MTS ACROSS RATON RIDGE AND TO THE OK BORDER AS WELL AS SE
TO THE KCVS AREA BETWEEN 17/06Z AND 17/18Z. LCL MVFR TO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN PRECIPITATION MOST LIKELY NEAR THE CO BORDER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER...INCLUDING INTERSTATE 25 OVER RATON
PASS...WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS GENERALLY EXPECTED.
LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS FROM RATON TO GRENVILLE WILL PROBABLY
ALSO RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH TONIGHT FROM
SOUTHERN HARDING COUNTY TO NORTHERN ROOSEVELT COUNTY. AFTER THIS
STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...A WARMER
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG
WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK AS A STRONGER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A QUICK MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CLIP NE NM
TONIGHT. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BRIEFLY REACH TO 10K FT
ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...AND MODELS ARE SQUEEZING
OUT A SURPRISING AMOUNT OF QPF RANGING FROM A TENTH TO A HALF
INCH MAINLY IN COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP
NEAR 8K FT BY 9 PM THEN DOWN TO AROUND 6K FT TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
NEAR THE CO BORDER INCLUDING RATON PASS. LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
FROM RATON TO GRENVILLE SHOULD ALSO RECEIVE 1 OR 2 INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT THIS IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN TEMPERATURES REACHED THE
60S IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY AND THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
WHEN THE MOISTURE AND COLD TEMPERATURES LINE UP FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CONVERT OUR
WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN
SANGRES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AND WILL THROW IN THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRES EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE IN
COLFAX COUNTY.

ALSO TONIGHT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS NEAR
50 MPH FROM HARDING COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN ROOSEVELT COUNTY.
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE ZONES...WHERE BLOWING DUST
SHOULD ALSO DROP THE VISIBILITY BELOW 3 MILES AT TIMES. SHOULD ALSO FEEL
SIMILAR GUSTS BRIEFLY IN NE CHAVES COUNTY AND POSSIBLE SOUTHERN
UNION COUNTY...BUT PROBABLY NOT FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD TO
WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY.

AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY CROSSES THURSDAY NIGHT...MOIST LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAP INTO THIS
MOISTURE AS IT CROSSES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ALONG AND E OF THE S CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY EVENING. SOUTHERN...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF RECEIVING A
TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...COUPLED WITH SOME BREEZES AND HAINES
6 VALUES REST OF TODAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL THEN GO ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOKING AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY WITH THE WETTER PORTION OF THE EVENT
OCCURRING SATURDAY. RESIDUAL IMPACTS WITH LIGHTNING ON SUNDAY.
STRONGEST DOWNDRAFTS APPEAR TO BE LATER FRIDAY. POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT WIND/LOW RH/UNSTABLE EVENT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
WITH LOWERING BASES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT. A PACIFIC
WAVE ACCOMPANIES THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WILL COMBINE WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST TO GENERATE WETTING MOISTURE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE
FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHES INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. A RIBBON OF STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY. THE LOWEST
RECOVERIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS ZONE 109 AS MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER
TO MOVE INTO THAT AREA.

HUMIDITY VALUES WILL COME UP AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY. THE STRONG MID
LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND PUSHED BACK TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OR SO. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. VENTILATION
RATES WILL CERTAINLY LOWER BUT NOT FALL OUT OF SIGHT.

WEATHER CHANGE WILL START UP ON FRIDAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. A
PACIFIC WAVE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW
MOISTURE TO FLOW UP FROM MEXICO AND THE GULF. STORMS WILL START OUT
ON THE DRIER SIDE WITH SOME DOWNDRAFT WIND POTENTIAL LASTING WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE WAVE WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY SO MOISTURE WILL TRY TO POOL UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. STORMS THAT FIRE UP THERE COULD VERY WELL PUT DOWN SOME
WETTING RAIN. OTHER AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED WETTING
MOISTURE ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHER
HUMIDITY. RESIDUAL AFFECTS FROM THE WAVE PASSAGE IS STILL EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH SEASONABLE TO
UNSEASONABLY HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW RIDGING ON MONDAY. PERHAPS SOME
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO RESIDUAL
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE THERE. DRYING AND WARMING SHOULD COMMENCE
ON MONDAY THOUGHT. DUE TO THE RIDGING...WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE ON
THE LOWER SIDE. VENTILATION DUE TO THE HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS LOOKS
TO BE ADEQUATE MONDAY.

ANOTHER WEATHER CHANGE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW A MULTIDAY WIND EVENT DURING THE PERIOD. PERHAPS LASTING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN AT ODDS IN TERMS
OF HOW DEEP THE TROUGH GETS WITH THE GFS BEING MORE DEEP. ECMWF IS
DRIER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY
VALUES SHOULD FALL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND LOOKING AT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER GROWTH CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR THIS
RESULT...AT LEAST IN TERMS OF INCREASED WIND.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ531-532-534>536.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ513-515-527.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 162350
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
550 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SFC CDFNT STRETCHING FROM KRTN THRU KTCC TO CONTINUE MOVING SOUTH
AND WWD WITH SFC WND GUSTS TO 35KT TO EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MT
CHAIN AND TO KROW VCNTY BY 17/12Z. LCL MAINLY MVFR CIGS OBSCG
HIGHER TERRAIN TO DVLP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MT CHAIN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. AT THE SAME TIME...UPR TROF TO SWEEP
FROM NW TO SE OVR NM TRIGGERING SCT -SHRASN FROM THE SAN JUAN AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS ACROSS RATON RIDGE AND TO THE OK BORDER AS
WELL AS SE TO THE KCVS AREA BETWEEN 17/01Z AND 17/18Z. LCL MVFR TO
IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN PRECIPITATION MOST LIKELY NEAR THE CO BORDER.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER...INCLUDING INTERSTATE 25 OVER RATON
PASS...WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS GENERALLY EXPECTED.
LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS FROM RATON TO GRENVILLE WILL PROBABLY
ALSO RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH TONIGHT FROM
SOUTHERN HARDING COUNTY TO NORTHERN ROOSEVELT COUNTY. AFTER THIS
STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...A WARMER
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG
WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK AS A STRONGER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A QUICK MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CLIP NE NM
TONIGHT. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BRIEFLY REACH TO 10K FT
ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...AND MODELS ARE SQUEEZING
OUT A SURPRISING AMOUNT OF QPF RANGING FROM A TENTH TO A HALF
INCH MAINLY IN COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP
NEAR 8K FT BY 9 PM THEN DOWN TO AROUND 6K FT TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
NEAR THE CO BORDER INCLUDING RATON PASS. LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
FROM RATON TO GRENVILLE SHOULD ALSO RECEIVE 1 OR 2 INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT THIS IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN TEMPERATURES REACHED THE
60S IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY AND THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
WHEN THE MOISTURE AND COLD TEMPERATURES LINE UP FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CONVERT OUR
WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN
SANGRES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AND WILL THROW IN THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRES EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE IN
COLFAX COUNTY.

ALSO TONIGHT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS NEAR
50 MPH FROM HARDING COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN ROOSEVELT COUNTY.
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE ZONES...WHERE BLOWING DUST
SHOULD ALSO DROP THE VISIBILITY BELOW 3 MILES AT TIMES. SHOULD ALSO FEEL
SIMILAR GUSTS BRIEFLY IN NE CHAVES COUNTY AND POSSIBLE SOUTHERN
UNION COUNTY...BUT PROBABLY NOT FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD TO
WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY.

AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY CROSSES THURSDAY NIGHT...MOIST LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAP INTO THIS
MOISTURE AS IT CROSSES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ALONG AND E OF THE S CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY EVENING. SOUTHERN...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF RECEIVING A
TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...COUPLED WITH SOME BREEZES AND HAINES
6 VALUES REST OF TODAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL THEN GO ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOKING AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY WITH THE WETTER PORTION OF THE EVENT
OCCURRING SATURDAY. RESIDUAL IMPACTS WITH LIGHTNING ON SUNDAY.
STRONGEST DOWNDRAFTS APPEAR TO BE LATER FRIDAY. POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT WIND/LOW RH/UNSTABLE EVENT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
WITH LOWERING BASES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT. A PACIFIC
WAVE ACCOMPANIES THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WILL COMBINE WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST TO GENERATE WETTING MOISTURE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE
FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHES INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. A RIBBON OF STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY. THE LOWEST
RECOVERIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS ZONE 109 AS MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER
TO MOVE INTO THAT AREA.

HUMIDITY VALUES WILL COME UP AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY. THE STRONG MID
LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND PUSHED BACK TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OR SO. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. VENTILATION
RATES WILL CERTAINLY LOWER BUT NOT FALL OUT OF SIGHT.

WEATHER CHANGE WILL START UP ON FRIDAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. A
PACIFIC WAVE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW
MOISTURE TO FLOW UP FROM MEXICO AND THE GULF. STORMS WILL START OUT
ON THE DRIER SIDE WITH SOME DOWNDRAFT WIND POTENTIAL LASTING WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE WAVE WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY SO MOISTURE WILL TRY TO POOL UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. STORMS THAT FIRE UP THERE COULD VERY WELL PUT DOWN SOME
WETTING RAIN. OTHER AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED WETTING
MOISTURE ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHER
HUMIDITY. RESIDUAL AFFECTS FROM THE WAVE PASSAGE IS STILL EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH SEASONABLE TO
UNSEASONABLY HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW RIDGING ON MONDAY. PERHAPS SOME
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO RESIDUAL
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE THERE. DRYING AND WARMING SHOULD COMMENCE
ON MONDAY THOUGHT. DUE TO THE RIDGING...WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE ON
THE LOWER SIDE. VENTILATION DUE TO THE HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS LOOKS
TO BE ADEQUATE MONDAY.

ANOTHER WEATHER CHANGE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW A MULTIDAY WIND EVENT DURING THE PERIOD. PERHAPS LASTING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN AT ODDS IN TERMS
OF HOW DEEP THE TROUGH GETS WITH THE GFS BEING MORE DEEP. ECMWF IS
DRIER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY
VALUES SHOULD FALL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND LOOKING AT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER GROWTH CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR THIS
RESULT...AT LEAST IN TERMS OF INCREASED WIND.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ531-532-534>536.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT THURSDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513-515-527.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 162132
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL BE HEAVY AT TIMES TONIGHT IN THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER...INCLUDING INTERSTATE 25 OVER RATON
PASS...WHERE 3 TO 6 INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS GENERALLY EXPECTED.
LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS FROM RATON TO GRENVILLE WILL PROBABLY
ALSO RECEIVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH TONIGHT FROM
SOUTHERN HARDING COUNTY TO NORTHERN ROOSEVELT COUNTY. AFTER THIS
STORM SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...A WARMER
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. STRONG
WINDS AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS MAY DEVELOP TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK AS A STRONGER SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A QUICK MOVING UPPER TROUGH AND SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CLIP NE NM
TONIGHT. EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD BRIEFLY REACH TO 10K FT
ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...AND MODELS ARE SQUEEZING
OUT A SURPRISING AMOUNT OF QPF RANGING FROM A TENTH TO A HALF
INCH MAINLY IN COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES. SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP
NEAR 8K FT BY 9 PM THEN DOWN TO AROUND 6K FT TOWARD SUNRISE. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS
NEAR THE CO BORDER INCLUDING RATON PASS. LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
FROM RATON TO GRENVILLE SHOULD ALSO RECEIVE 1 OR 2 INCHES OF
SNOW...BUT THIS IS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN GIVEN TEMPERATURES REACHED THE
60S IN THESE LOCATIONS TODAY AND THERE WILL ONLY BE A BRIEF PERIOD
WHEN THE MOISTURE AND COLD TEMPERATURES LINE UP FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATION TOWARD SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. WILL CONVERT OUR
WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE NORTHERN
SANGRES WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE...AND WILL THROW IN THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SANGRES EVEN THOUGH THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE IN
COLFAX COUNTY.

ALSO TONIGHT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS NEAR
50 MPH FROM HARDING COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO NORTHERN ROOSEVELT COUNTY.
WILL ISSUE A WIND ADVISORY FOR THESE ZONES...WHERE BLOWING DUST
SHOULD ALSO DROP THE VISIBILITY BELOW 3 MILES AT TIMES. SHOULD ALSO FEEL
SIMILAR GUSTS BRIEFLY IN NE CHAVES COUNTY AND POSSIBLE SOUTHERN
UNION COUNTY...BUT PROBABLY NOT FOR A LONG ENOUGH PERIOD TO
WARRANT A WIND ADVISORY.

AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY CROSSES THURSDAY NIGHT...MOIST LOW
LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL TAP INTO THIS
MOISTURE AS IT CROSSES FROM THE WEST FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THERE COULD BE ENOUGH SHEAR AND
INSTABILITY ALONG AND E OF THE S CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR SOME STRONG
TO SEVERE STORMS FRIDAY EVENING. SOUTHERN...WESTERN AND CENTRAL
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA HAVE A GOOD CHANCE OF RECEIVING A
TENTH TO A QUARTER INCH OF PRECIPITATION THIS WEEKEND.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS INCLUDE VERY LOW HUMIDITY VALUES ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...COUPLED WITH SOME BREEZES AND HAINES
6 VALUES REST OF TODAY. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL THEN GO ON THE
INCREASE THROUGH SATURDAY. LOOKING AT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ON FRIDAY WITH THE WETTER PORTION OF THE EVENT
OCCURRING SATURDAY. RESIDUAL IMPACTS WITH LIGHTNING ON SUNDAY.
STRONGEST DOWNDRAFTS APPEAR TO BE LATER FRIDAY. POSSIBLE
SIGNIFICANT WIND/LOW RH/UNSTABLE EVENT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK.

AS FAR AS THE REST OF TODAY...HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
WITH LOWERING BASES ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST TONIGHT. A PACIFIC
WAVE ACCOMPANIES THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS AND WILL COMBINE WITH A
SURFACE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST TO GENERATE WETTING MOISTURE
POTENTIAL ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIRD. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL INCREASE
FROM EAST TO WEST TONIGHT AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT PUSHES INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. A RIBBON OF STRONG TO VERY STRONG WINDS WILL
ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PUSH ACROSS THE PLAINS LATER TODAY. THE LOWEST
RECOVERIES WILL BE FOUND ACROSS ZONE 109 AS MOISTURE WILL BE SLOWER
TO MOVE INTO THAT AREA.

HUMIDITY VALUES WILL COME UP AREAWIDE ON THURSDAY. THE STRONG MID
LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL HAVE WEAKENED AND PUSHED BACK TO THE WEST
AND SOUTH. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE COOLER THAN NORMAL ACROSS THE
EASTERN HALF OR SO. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER. VENTILATION
RATES WILL CERTAINLY LOWER BUT NOT FALL OUT OF SIGHT.

WEATHER CHANGE WILL START UP ON FRIDAY AND LAST INTO THE WEEKEND. A
PACIFIC WAVE WILL SLOWLY APPROACH THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW
MOISTURE TO FLOW UP FROM MEXICO AND THE GULF. STORMS WILL START OUT
ON THE DRIER SIDE WITH SOME DOWNDRAFT WIND POTENTIAL LASTING WELL
INTO THE OVERNIGHT. THE WAVE WILL TAKE ITS TIME TO MOVE OVER THE
AREA ON SATURDAY SO MOISTURE WILL TRY TO POOL UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. STORMS THAT FIRE UP THERE COULD VERY WELL PUT DOWN SOME
WETTING RAIN. OTHER AREAS COULD EXPERIENCE LOCALIZED WETTING
MOISTURE ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER WITH HIGHER
HUMIDITY. RESIDUAL AFFECTS FROM THE WAVE PASSAGE IS STILL EXPECTED
ON SUNDAY. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH SEASONABLE TO
UNSEASONABLY HIGH HUMIDITY VALUES.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW RIDGING ON MONDAY. PERHAPS SOME
SHOWERY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS DUE TO RESIDUAL
INSTABILITY AND MOISTURE THERE. DRYING AND WARMING SHOULD COMMENCE
ON MONDAY THOUGHT. DUE TO THE RIDGING...WIND SPEEDS LOOK TO BE ON
THE LOWER SIDE. VENTILATION DUE TO THE HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS LOOKS
TO BE ADEQUATE MONDAY.

ANOTHER WEATHER CHANGE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY OF NEXT WEEK.
MODELS SHOW A MULTIDAY WIND EVENT DURING THE PERIOD. PERHAPS LASTING
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF REMAIN AT ODDS IN TERMS
OF HOW DEEP THE TROUGH GETS WITH THE GFS BEING MORE DEEP. ECMWF IS
DRIER AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH. EITHER WAY...HUMIDITY
VALUES SHOULD FALL AHEAD OF THE TROUGH AND LOOKING AT CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER GROWTH CONDITIONS. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR THIS
RESULT...AT LEAST IN TERMS OF INCREASED WIND.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TAKING AIM ON THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES TODAY/TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP AND LOWER AS A
RESULT. STARTING WITH GUP/FMN AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD. THEN
THINNING CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS OVERNIGHT. MVFR
AND IFR CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS TONIGHT. ESPECIALLY FAVORING ALONG AND
NORTH OF I40. WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NE THIRD.
LVS WILL BE IMPACTED ALTHOUGH CARRYING MVFR CIGS IN LATEST
FORECAST AT THIS TIME. THAT SITE COULD OBSERVE EVEN LOWER
CONDITIONS. TCC WILL FOLLOW SUIT. TOUGHER CALL FOR ROW/SAF SO LEFT
THOSE SITES OUT. WINDS WILL BE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE WAVE TODAY BUT
STRONGEST WIND FLOW WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. LOOKING AT GUSTS BETWEEN 35 TO 45 KT FOR 2 TO 3 HRS AND A
DISTINCT WIND SHIFT. TCC WOULD BE IMPACTED MOST.

50

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  33  69  39  74 /   5   0   0  10
DULCE...........................  27  63  28  69 /  20   0   0  20
CUBA............................  29  63  31  68 /  10   0   0  10
GALLUP..........................  26  70  34  71 /   0   0   0  10
EL MORRO........................  28  64  29  64 /   0   0   0  20
GRANTS..........................  29  68  33  69 /   0   0   0  20
QUEMADO.........................  34  67  40  66 /   0   0   0  20
GLENWOOD........................  36  77  34  73 /   0   0   0  10
CHAMA...........................  23  57  28  64 /  30  10   0  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  34  62  41  67 /  10   0   0  10
PECOS...........................  31  57  37  64 /  20   5   0  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  22  61  29  70 /  50  10   0  20
RED RIVER.......................  22  48  31  55 /  60  20   5  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  21  52  27  61 /  50  20   5  20
TAOS............................  27  61  30  70 /  30   5   0  10
MORA............................  27  57  35  66 /  30  10   5  10
ESPANOLA........................  34  68  37  74 /  20   0   0  10
SANTA FE........................  34  60  40  66 /  10   0   0  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  35  65  36  71 /  10   0   0  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  40  68  47  73 /   5   0   0  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  44  70  47  74 /   5   0   0  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  43  72  44  76 /   5   0   0  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  43  73  45  77 /   5   0   0  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  42  73  40  77 /   5   0   0  10
RIO RANCHO......................  42  72  45  76 /   5   0   0  10
SOCORRO.........................  46  76  48  76 /   5   0   0  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  37  65  41  71 /   5   0   0  10
TIJERAS.........................  38  64  42  70 /   5   0   0  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  33  64  31  69 /   5   0   0  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  32  59  36  67 /  10   5   0  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  37  65  42  70 /   5   0   0  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  41  69  44  73 /   0   0   0  10
RUIDOSO.........................  38  63  38  65 /   0   0   0  10
CAPULIN.........................  26  51  34  66 /  70  30   5   5
RATON...........................  29  58  34  72 /  70  20   5  10
SPRINGER........................  31  59  35  72 /  50  20   5  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  28  58  35  68 /  30  10   0  10
CLAYTON.........................  33  56  40  73 /  50  20   5   5
ROY.............................  33  55  37  68 /  30  20   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  39  63  43  74 /  20  10   0   5
SANTA ROSA......................  39  63  42  72 /  10   5   0   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  39  65  43  77 /  10  10   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  40  63  40  73 /   5   5   0  10
PORTALES........................  41  67  42  74 /   5   0   0  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  42  65  44  74 /  10   0   0  10
ROSWELL.........................  47  70  45  76 /   5   0   0  10
PICACHO.........................  43  67  42  73 /   5   0   0  10
ELK.............................  42  64  41  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ531-532-534>536.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM MDT THURSDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513-515-527.

&&

$$

44






000
FXUS65 KABQ 161743 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
PACIFIC DISTURBANCE TAKING AIM ON THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
TODAY/TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN UP AND LOWER AS A RESULT.
STARTING WITH GUP/FMN AND THEN SPREADING EASTWARD. THEN THINNING
CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS OVERNIGHT. MVFR AND IFR CIGS
WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS TONIGHT. ESPECIALLY FAVORING ALONG AND NORTH OF I40.
WORST CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE NE THIRD. LVS WILL BE
IMPACTED ALTHOUGH CARRYING MVFR CIGS IN LATEST FORECAST AT THIS
TIME. THAT SITE COULD OBSERVE EVEN LOWER CONDITIONS. TCC WILL
FOLLOW SUIT. TOUGHER CALL FOR ROW/SAF SO LEFT THOSE SITES OUT. WINDS
WILL BE BREEZY AHEAD OF THE WAVE TODAY BUT STRONGEST WIND FLOW
WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. LOOKING AT GUSTS
BETWEEN 35 TO 45 KT FOR 2 TO 3 HRS AND A DISTINCT WIND SHIFT. TCC
WOULD BE IMPACTED MOST.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...307 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM WILL ZIP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SPREADING
A SWATH OF RAIN AND HIGH COUNTRY SNOW AND USHERING IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES. A WARMING FRIDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE...AS TEMPERATURES LEVEL OFF HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEATHER SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND BRING ANOTHER WEEKEND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
MUCH OF THE STATE. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE IN THE WEEKEND FOR A WARM
START TO THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD WITH NEW MEXICO UNDER
DOWNSTREAM LIMB OF BROAD RIDGE SITTING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BLACK HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA
SOUTHWARD TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD STORY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THROUGH MIDWEEK OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUCKLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY OVER NEW
MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH AND WEST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN SONORA THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVE WILL
SHEAR EASTWARD INTO TEXAS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...AS WEAK RIDGE
AHEAD OF BAGGY TROUGH FORMING OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES ACROSS
NEW MEXICO TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK. TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY AND ENCROACH ON WESTERN NEW MEXICO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH BROAD TROUGH FEATURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MUCH OF THE ENERGY
WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WEAK
ZONAL FLOW WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING EASTBOUND TROUGH...AS
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM CRANKS UP IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BEGINS
SOUTHWARD DIG DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAVE WILL CROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE TUESDAY AND ARRIVE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS ON THE SPEED OF
THE TRIP FOR THIS SYSTEM ACROSS NEW MEXICO...DOMESTIC GFS HOLDS
THE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AS A STRENGTHENING CLOSED LOW
WHILE EUROPEAN ECMWF KEEPS THE STRUCTURE WAVY AND USHERS IT INTO
TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AGREE WITH WPC COLLEAGUES THAT
GFS HAS BEEN RUNNING WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE OF LATE IN CUTTING OFF
SYSTEMS OVER THE WEST...WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE EUROPEAN ECMWF
SOLUTION PREFERRED AS THE BETTER PERFORMER TO GUIDE FORECAST
THINKING FOR NOW. AS ALWAYS AND EVER...FUTURE RUNS WILL BE WATCHED
FOR IMPROVED COHERENCE IN THE RUNS TO COME.

FOR TODAY...STRENGTHENING AND INCREASINGLY TURBULENT NORTHWEST
FLOW OVERHEAD...AS AGGRESSIVE COLD FRONT PENETRATES NORTHEAST
QUADRANT DURING THE DAY TODAY AND DRIVES THIS FEATURE SOUTH AND
BULGES IT WEST OVERNIGHT. NORTH COUNTRY SHOWERS WITH HIGH COUNTRY
SNOWS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WILL INTENSIFY AS THEY
EXPAND EAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO HIGH
COUNTRY SNOW LATE TODAY...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL NEAR THE
COLORADO LINE AND ACROSS THE I25 CORRIDOR NEAR RATON PASS FALLING
TONIGHT. NORTHERN SANGRE SUMMITS...AND RATON PASS...COULD SEE SNOW
ACCUMULATION SQUEAKING ABOVE WARNING THRESHOLDS...AND WILL SET
WINTER STORM WATCH WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE TO COVER SNOWFALL FROM
LATE EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NOON TO GET THE BALL IN PLAY. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE MID APRIL NORMALS...WITH AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SUMMITS...AND NORTHEAST BREEZES GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PLAINS.

FOR THURSDAY...NORTH COUNTRY AND NORTHEAST PLAINS SNOWFALL
TAPERING OFF AND ENDING AROUND NOON WITH MODEST ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...AND SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN OVER THE SLOPES AS
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT 6 TO 12
DEGREES BELOW MID APRIL NORMALS OVER THE EAST...AND NEAR NORMAL
TO A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER THE WEST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY...AND STALL AGAINST THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE PENETRATION
WILL SET UP SOME STATE LINE FOG NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGE AHEAD OF BAGGY WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY WILL NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT MOXIE TO
SHUT DOWN A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY...AS TIGHT SHORTWAVE IN
NEGATIVE TILT RIDES UP THE UPSTREAM LIMB OF THE RIDGE AND
INTERACTS WITH DRY LINE OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE. THUNDER
COVERAGE ISOLATED...BUT MOST ANY PLACE COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH BROAD AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL FOR A MID APRIL DAY.

FOR SATURDAY...WEST COAST TROUGH DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS
ARIZONA...LEAVING NEW MEXICO IN GENTLE SOUTHWEST BREEZES OVERHEAD.
SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL MAINTAIN
CONTINUED DRY LINE PRESENCE OVER THE TEXAS LINE ON THE NEW MEXICO
EASTERN BORDER FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY STATEWIDE. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORM INITIATION OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY CENTRAL AND
WEST...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH REDUCED BUT STILL SUBSTANTIAL
CHANCES ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL...WITH SOUTHWEST BREEZES MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMING TREND WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN.
WEAK FLOW OVERHEAD SUNDAY WILL STRENGTHEN AND BACK SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING CALIFORNIA COASTAL WAVE.
NORTHEAST SHOWERS SUNDAY WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY AS TEXAS STATE
LINE DRY LINE BECOMES ACTIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING.
HIGH COUNTRY CONVECTION TUESDAY WILL END UP OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING AS STRONGER DYNAMICS MOVE OVER THE STATE AS
THE STORM CORE SHIFTS TO THE GRAND CANYON BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN FIRE WEATHER IMPACT IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
GUSTY WEST WINDS ALONG AND NEAR INTERSTATE 40 FROM THE ARIZONA
BORDER EAST TO NEAR LAGUNA PUEBLO OR SO THEN EAST OF ABQ FROM
EDGEWOOD EAST TO TEXAS BORDER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE FOR MID APRIL
AND THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CORE OF THE
GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LIMITING
THE TIME RH REMAINS BELOW FIFTEEN PERCENT. SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND RATON PASS/NE HIGHLANDS AREA LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ABOVE ABOUT 7000 FT OVERNIGHT.

A COOLER MORE STABLE AIR MASS MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE IS SHORT-LIVED AND
SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER WEST TEXAS WILL ALLOW FOR A LONG-LIVED
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER EASTERN NM THURSDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SELY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...LOW AND MID LEVEL
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATING THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SCOURS OUT THE MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE GREATLY TUESDAY AND BEYOND
WITH GFS MUCH DEEPER AND WETTER WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH/LOW. ECMWF
KEEPS IT A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WHICH WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION
NORTH AND EAST OF NM.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513-527.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 161141 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
541 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SFC LEE TROUGH CONTINUES IN PLACE OVER THE ERN PLAINS OF NM THIS
MORNING. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN NW FLOW WILL APPROACH NORTH
CENTRAL NM THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING AND LOWERING MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY ABOUT MIDDAY AT
KGUP...KLVS AND KTCC. SFC CDFNT WILL MOVE SEWD TO NEAR A KCAO TO
KLVS TO KGNT LINE BY 16/21Z WITH WINDS BECOMING NWLY WEST OF
CENTRAL MTS AND NELY IN NE PLAINS. AFTER 17/03Z TONIGHT...HIGHER
TERRAIN FROM THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS EAST TO RATON PASS
AND NE HIGHLANDS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN SCT -SHRASN.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...307 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM WILL ZIP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SPREADING
A SWATH OF RAIN AND HIGH COUNTRY SNOW AND USHERING IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES. A WARMING FRIDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE...AS TEMPERATURES LEVEL OFF HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEATHER SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND BRING ANOTHER WEEKEND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
MUCH OF THE STATE. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE IN THE WEEKEND FOR A WARM
START TO THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD WITH NEW MEXICO UNDER
DOWNSTREAM LIMB OF BROAD RIDGE SITTING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BLACK HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA
SOUTHWARD TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD STORY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THROUGH MIDWEEK OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUCKLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY OVER NEW
MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH AND WEST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN SONORA THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVE WILL
SHEAR EASTWARD INTO TEXAS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...AS WEAK RIDGE
AHEAD OF BAGGY TROUGH FORMING OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES ACROSS
NEW MEXICO TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK. TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY AND ENCROACH ON WESTERN NEW MEXICO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH BROAD TROUGH FEATURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MUCH OF THE ENERGY
WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WEAK
ZONAL FLOW WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING EASTBOUND TROUGH...AS
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM CRANKS UP IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BEGINS
SOUTHWARD DIG DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAVE WILL CROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE TUESDAY AND ARRIVE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS ON THE SPEED OF
THE TRIP FOR THIS SYSTEM ACROSS NEW MEXICO...DOMESTIC GFS HOLDS
THE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AS A STRENGTHENING CLOSED LOW
WHILE EUROPEAN ECMWF KEEPS THE STRUCTURE WAVY AND USHERS IT INTO
TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AGREE WITH WPC COLLEAGUES THAT
GFS HAS BEEN RUNNING WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE OF LATE IN CUTTING OFF
SYSTEMS OVER THE WEST...WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE EUROPEAN ECMWF
SOLUTION PREFERRED AS THE BETTER PERFORMER TO GUIDE FORECAST
THINKING FOR NOW. AS ALWAYS AND EVER...FUTURE RUNS WILL BE WATCHED
FOR IMPROVED COHERENCE IN THE RUNS TO COME.

FOR TODAY...STRENGTHENING AND INCREASINGLY TURBULENT NORTHWEST
FLOW OVERHEAD...AS AGGRESSIVE COLD FRONT PENETRATES NORTHEAST
QUADRANT DURING THE DAY TODAY AND DRIVES THIS FEATURE SOUTH AND
BULGES IT WEST OVERNIGHT. NORTH COUNTRY SHOWERS WITH HIGH COUNTRY
SNOWS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WILL INTENSIFY AS THEY
EXPAND EAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO HIGH
COUNTRY SNOW LATE TODAY...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL NEAR THE
COLORADO LINE AND ACROSS THE I25 CORRIDOR NEAR RATON PASS FALLING
TONIGHT. NORTHERN SANGRE SUMMITS...AND RATON PASS...COULD SEE SNOW
ACCUMULATION SQUEAKING ABOVE WARNING THRESHOLDS...AND WILL SET
WINTER STORM WATCH WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE TO COVER SNOWFALL FROM
LATE EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NOON TO GET THE BALL IN PLAY. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE MID APRIL NORMALS...WITH AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SUMMITS...AND NORTHEAST BREEZES GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PLAINS.

FOR THURSDAY...NORTH COUNTRY AND NORTHEAST PLAINS SNOWFALL
TAPERING OFF AND ENDING AROUND NOON WITH MODEST ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...AND SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN OVER THE SLOPES AS
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT 6 TO 12
DEGREES BELOW MID APRIL NORMALS OVER THE EAST...AND NEAR NORMAL
TO A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER THE WEST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY...AND STALL AGAINST THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE PENETRATION
WILL SET UP SOME STATE LINE FOG NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGE AHEAD OF BAGGY WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY WILL NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT MOXIE TO
SHUT DOWN A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY...AS TIGHT SHORTWAVE IN
NEGATIVE TILT RIDES UP THE UPSTREAM LIMB OF THE RIDGE AND
INTERACTS WITH DRY LINE OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE. THUNDER
COVERAGE ISOLATED...BUT MOST ANY PLACE COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH BROAD AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL FOR A MID APRIL DAY.

FOR SATURDAY...WEST COAST TROUGH DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS
ARIZONA...LEAVING NEW MEXICO IN GENTLE SOUTHWEST BREEZES OVERHEAD.
SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL MAINTAIN
CONTINUED DRY LINE PRESENCE OVER THE TEXAS LINE ON THE NEW MEXICO
EASTERN BORDER FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY STATEWIDE. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORM INITIATION OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY CENTRAL AND
WEST...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH REDUCED BUT STILL SUBSTANTIAL
CHANCES ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL...WITH SOUTHWEST BREEZES MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMING TREND WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN.
WEAK FLOW OVERHEAD SUNDAY WILL STRENGTHEN AND BACK SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING CALIFORNIA COASTAL WAVE.
NORTHEAST SHOWERS SUNDAY WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY AS TEXAS STATE
LINE DRY LINE BECOMES ACTIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING.
HIGH COUNTRY CONVECTION TUESDAY WILL END UP OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING AS STRONGER DYNAMICS MOVE OVER THE STATE AS
THE STORM CORE SHIFTS TO THE GRAND CANYON BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN FIRE WEATHER IMPACT IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
GUSTY WEST WINDS ALONG AND NEAR INTERSTATE 40 FROM THE ARIZONA
BORDER EAST TO NEAR LAGUNA PUEBLO OR SO THEN EAST OF ABQ FROM
EDGEWOOD EAST TO TEXAS BORDER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE FOR MID APRIL
AND THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CORE OF THE
GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LIMITING
THE TIME RH REMAINS BELOW FIFTEEN PERCENT. SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND RATON PASS/NE HIGHLANDS AREA LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ABOVE ABOUT 7000 FT OVERNIGHT.

A COOLER MORE STABLE AIR MASS MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE IS SHORT-LIVED AND
SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER WEST TEXAS WILL ALLOW FOR A LONG-LIVED
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER EASTERN NM THURSDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SELY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...LOW AND MID LEVEL
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATING THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SCOURS OUT THE MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE GREATLY TUESDAY AND BEYOND
WITH GFS MUCH DEEPER AND WETTER WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH/LOW. ECMWF
KEEPS IT A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WHICH WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION
NORTH AND EAST OF NM.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513-527.

&&

$$

SHY










000
FXUS65 KABQ 160907
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
307 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAST MOVING PACIFIC NORTHWEST STORM WILL ZIP ACROSS NORTHERN AND
NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING...SPREADING
A SWATH OF RAIN AND HIGH COUNTRY SNOW AND USHERING IN COLDER
TEMPERATURES. A WARMING FRIDAY WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE STATE...AS TEMPERATURES LEVEL OFF HEADING
INTO THE WEEKEND. A WEATHER SYSTEM OFF THE WEST COAST WILL MOVE
ACROSS NEW MEXICO AND BRING ANOTHER WEEKEND CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO
MUCH OF THE STATE. SKIES WILL CLEAR LATE IN THE WEEKEND FOR A WARM
START TO THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...NORTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD WITH NEW MEXICO UNDER
DOWNSTREAM LIMB OF BROAD RIDGE SITTING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.
SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THE BLACK HILLS OF SOUTH DAKOTA
SOUTHWARD TO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE BROAD STORY THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THROUGH MIDWEEK OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BUCKLE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY OVER NEW
MEXICO AS SHORTWAVE AMPLIFIES FROM THE DAKOTAS SOUTH AND WEST
ACROSS NEW MEXICO INTO EASTERN SONORA THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVE WILL
SHEAR EASTWARD INTO TEXAS BY MIDDAY THURSDAY...AS WEAK RIDGE
AHEAD OF BAGGY TROUGH FORMING OFF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA MOVES ACROSS
NEW MEXICO TO WRAP UP THE WORK WEEK. TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY AND ENCROACH ON WESTERN NEW MEXICO
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. ALTHOUGH BROAD TROUGH FEATURE REMAINS IN
PLACE ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND...MUCH OF THE ENERGY
WILL LIFT OUT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEKEND. WEAK
ZONAL FLOW WILL FILL IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING EASTBOUND TROUGH...AS
MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM CRANKS UP IN THE NORTH PACIFIC AND BEGINS
SOUTHWARD DIG DOWN THE CALIFORNIA COAST. THIS WAVE WILL CROSS THE
CALIFORNIA COASTLINE TUESDAY AND ARRIVE NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS ON
WEDNESDAY MORNING. SOME DIFFERENCES IN SOLUTIONS ON THE SPEED OF
THE TRIP FOR THIS SYSTEM ACROSS NEW MEXICO...DOMESTIC GFS HOLDS
THE SYSTEM OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AS A STRENGTHENING CLOSED LOW
WHILE EUROPEAN ECMWF KEEPS THE STRUCTURE WAVY AND USHERS IT INTO
TEXAS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. AGREE WITH WPC COLLEAGUES THAT
GFS HAS BEEN RUNNING WAY TOO AGGRESSIVE OF LATE IN CUTTING OFF
SYSTEMS OVER THE WEST...WITH A MORE PROGRESSIVE EUROPEAN ECMWF
SOLUTION PREFERRED AS THE BETTER PERFORMER TO GUIDE FORECAST
THINKING FOR NOW. AS ALWAYS AND EVER...FUTURE RUNS WILL BE WATCHED
FOR IMPROVED COHERENCE IN THE RUNS TO COME.

FOR TODAY...STRENGTHENING AND INCREASINGLY TURBULENT NORTHWEST
FLOW OVERHEAD...AS AGGRESSIVE COLD FRONT PENETRATES NORTHEAST
QUADRANT DURING THE DAY TODAY AND DRIVES THIS FEATURE SOUTH AND
BULGES IT WEST OVERNIGHT. NORTH COUNTRY SHOWERS WITH HIGH COUNTRY
SNOWS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE DAY TODAY WILL INTENSIFY AS THEY
EXPAND EAST AND SOUTH TONIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE OVER TO HIGH
COUNTRY SNOW LATE TODAY...WITH MORE SUBSTANTIAL SNOWFALL NEAR THE
COLORADO LINE AND ACROSS THE I25 CORRIDOR NEAR RATON PASS FALLING
TONIGHT. NORTHERN SANGRE SUMMITS...AND RATON PASS...COULD SEE SNOW
ACCUMULATION SQUEAKING ABOVE WARNING THRESHOLDS...AND WILL SET
WINTER STORM WATCH WITH THE MORNING PACKAGE TO COVER SNOWFALL FROM
LATE EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY NOON TO GET THE BALL IN PLAY. SOUTH
OF THE FRONT...WARMING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL MAKE IT A FEW
DEGREES ABOVE MID APRIL NORMALS...WITH AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES
OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
SUMMITS...AND NORTHEAST BREEZES GOING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN AND EASTERN PLAINS.

FOR THURSDAY...NORTH COUNTRY AND NORTHEAST PLAINS SNOWFALL
TAPERING OFF AND ENDING AROUND NOON WITH MODEST ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS...AND SNOW CHANGING BACK TO RAIN OVER THE SLOPES AS
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WARM. TEMPERATURES WILL TOP OUT 6 TO 12
DEGREES BELOW MID APRIL NORMALS OVER THE EAST...AND NEAR NORMAL
TO A FEW DEGREES WARMER OVER THE WEST. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THURSDAY...AND STALL AGAINST THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MOISTURE PENETRATION
WILL SET UP SOME STATE LINE FOG NEAR THE TEXAS BORDER THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

FOR FRIDAY...WEAK RIDGE AHEAD OF BAGGY WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING
ACROSS NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY WILL NOT HAVE SUFFICIENT MOXIE TO
SHUT DOWN A CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY...AS TIGHT SHORTWAVE IN
NEGATIVE TILT RIDES UP THE UPSTREAM LIMB OF THE RIDGE AND
INTERACTS WITH DRY LINE OVER THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE. THUNDER
COVERAGE ISOLATED...BUT MOST ANY PLACE COULD SEE A THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO FRIDAY AFTERNOON WITH BROAD AND BREEZY SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE
STATE. TEMPERATURES RUNNING NEAR NORMAL FOR A MID APRIL DAY.

FOR SATURDAY...WEST COAST TROUGH DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS
ARIZONA...LEAVING NEW MEXICO IN GENTLE SOUTHWEST BREEZES OVERHEAD.
SURFACE LOW DEEPENING OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL MAINTAIN
CONTINUED DRY LINE PRESENCE OVER THE TEXAS LINE ON THE NEW MEXICO
EASTERN BORDER FOR ANOTHER CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE DAY STATEWIDE. BEST
CHANCES FOR STORM INITIATION OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY CENTRAL AND
WEST...AND OVER THE SOUTHEAST WITH REDUCED BUT STILL SUBSTANTIAL
CHANCES ELSEWHERE. TEMPERATURES REMAINING NEAR NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL...WITH SOUTHWEST BREEZES MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN AND
NORTHEAST PLAINS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...WARMING TREND WITH CONTINUED
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN AN UNSETTLED PATTERN.
WEAK FLOW OVERHEAD SUNDAY WILL STRENGTHEN AND BACK SOUTHWEST
THROUGH TUESDAY IN ADVANCE OF APPROACHING CALIFORNIA COASTAL WAVE.
NORTHEAST SHOWERS SUNDAY WILL TAPER OFF MONDAY AS TEXAS STATE
LINE DRY LINE BECOMES ACTIVE MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY EVENING.
HIGH COUNTRY CONVECTION TUESDAY WILL END UP OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS TUESDAY EVENING AS STRONGER DYNAMICS MOVE OVER THE STATE AS
THE STORM CORE SHIFTS TO THE GRAND CANYON BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MAIN FIRE WEATHER IMPACT IN THE SHORT-TERM WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
GUSTY WEST WINDS ALONG AND NEAR INTERSTATE 40 FROM THE ARIZONA
BORDER EAST TO NEAR LAGUNA PUEBLO OR SO THEN EAST OF ABQ FROM
EDGEWOOD EAST TO TEXAS BORDER FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS THIS AFTERNOON.
HIGH TEMPERATURES...HOWEVER WILL REMAIN NEAR AVERAGE FOR MID APRIL
AND THE HIGHEST INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF THE CORE OF THE
GUSTY WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHEAST THROUGH
THE NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON...LIMITING
THE TIME RH REMAINS BELOW FIFTEEN PERCENT. SCATTERED RAIN AND
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTHERN SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND RATON PASS/NE HIGHLANDS AREA LATE TONIGHT CONTINUING
INTO THURSDAY MORNING. SEVERAL INCHES OF ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED
ABOVE ABOUT 7000 FT OVERNIGHT.

A COOLER MORE STABLE AIR MASS MOVES IN FOR THURSDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE BEGINS TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. THE RIDGE IS SHORT-LIVED AND
SLIDES EASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER WEST TEXAS WILL ALLOW FOR A LONG-LIVED
SOUTHEASTERLY SURFACE FLOW OVER EASTERN NM THURSDAY EVENING AND
THURSDAY NIGHT. THE SELY WINDS WILL TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. MEANWHILE...LOW AND MID LEVEL
PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WORK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH.

MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SUBTROPICAL UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE
NORTHWARD THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY. MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATING THE BEST CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON WITH
SHOWERS MOVING EASTWARD THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. BEST INSTABILITY SHIFTS TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS FOR SUNDAY AND MONDAY. INCREASING
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA SCOURS OUT THE MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE GREATLY TUESDAY AND BEYOND
WITH GFS MUCH DEEPER AND WETTER WITH THE INCOMING TROUGH/LOW. ECMWF
KEEPS IT A PROGRESSIVE OPEN WAVE WHICH WOULD KEEP PRECIPITATION
NORTH AND EAST OF NM.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SFC LEE TROF WITH VARIABLE AMOUNTS OF MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THRU 16/12Z. UPPER DISTURBANCE TO APPROACH
NORTH CENTRAL NM FROM CENTRAL ROCKIES THEREAFTER WITH INCREASING
AND LOWERING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
SFC CDFNT TO PUSH INTO NE NM AFT 16/18Z WITH HIGHER TERRAIN FROM
THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS ALG RATON RIDGE BECOMING
OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN WDLY SCT -SHRASN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  67  34  68  40 /   5   5   0   0
DULCE...........................  62  25  61  29 /   5  10   0   0
CUBA............................  64  29  62  32 /   5  10   0   0
GALLUP..........................  68  30  69  35 /   5   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  63  27  66  29 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  67  30  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  67  35  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  75  33  76  36 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  57  25  55  27 /  10  20   5   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  64  37  62  41 /   5  10   0   0
PECOS...........................  62  33  60  36 /   5  10   5   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  61  26  56  29 /  10  40   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  47  24  47  31 /  20  60  20   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  55  22  52  27 /  10  50  10   0
TAOS............................  63  27  60  30 /   5  30   5   0
MORA............................  62  29  57  34 /   5  30  10   0
ESPANOLA........................  69  34  67  37 /   5  10   0   0
SANTA FE........................  64  36  62  39 /   0  10   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  68  34  65  37 /   0  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  71  44  68  46 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  73  44  70  45 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  75  42  72  43 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  75  42  71  44 /   0   5   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  77  39  73  40 /   0   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  74  42  70  44 /   0   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  79  45  75  48 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  69  38  64  41 /   0   5   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  69  40  66  42 /   0   5   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  69  31  65  33 /   0   5   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  66  32  60  35 /   0   5   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  70  37  66  42 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  72  40  69  43 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  66  37  62  39 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  58  28  51  32 /  10  60  30   5
RATON...........................  63  31  55  31 /  10  60  20   5
SPRINGER........................  66  32  58  33 /  10  50  20   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  66  30  58  35 /   0  20  10   0
CLAYTON.........................  64  33  56  37 /   5  50  20   5
ROY.............................  67  32  55  35 /   5  30  20   5
CONCHAS.........................  74  39  63  41 /   5  20  10   0
SANTA ROSA......................  76  39  64  40 /   0  10   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  77  39  63  39 /   0  10  10   0
CLOVIS..........................  77  40  62  37 /   0  10   5   5
PORTALES........................  78  41  64  39 /   0  10   0   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  79  42  66  41 /   0  10   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  83  47  71  44 /   0   5   0   0
PICACHO.........................  77  42  67  42 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  72  41  64  40 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ513-527.

&&

$$

SHY









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