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000
FXUS65 KABQ 052157
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
357 PM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR LOCALLY VERY HEAVY RAIN WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS DEEP
RICH MOISTURE CONTINUES TO SLOWLY STREAM INTO MUCH OF WEST AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...ESPECIALLY TO THE SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
WHILE A BIT LESS LIKELY THAN WHAT APPEARED TO BE THE CASE EARLIER
TODAY...THE RISK OF LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING SHOULD LINGER WELL
INTO THE EVENING ACROSS THIS LATTER AREA. THEN ON MONDAY A BACKDOOR
FRONT IS PROGGED TO HEAD INTO THE NORTHEAST THIRD OR SO OF THE
STATE AND PUSH MONDAY NIGHT SOUTH AND WEST...MAKING IT AT LEAST
CLOSE TO THE DIVIDE BY WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH THE GREATER RISK SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST
THIRD TO HALF OF THE STATE LATER MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT THEN BACK
FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH MID WEEK DUE TO THE
ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLING...THEN TREND BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL BY LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WELL...A NICE CURVE BALL THROWN AT US BY MA NATURE RENDERED
ROUGHLY THE NW QUARTER TO NEARLY THIRD OF THE STATE TOTALLY
DEVOID OF SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION...DESPITE VIGOROUS CONVECTION
HAVING DEVELOPED ACROSS A GOOD PART OF AZ. DECIDED TO TRIM THE
NORTHERNMOST COUNTIES OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BACK OUT OF THE
WATCH...WHILE KEEPING IT GOING ELSEWHERE. DESPITE THE ABUNDANT
MOISTURE AND APPROACHING SHORT WAVE FROM SE AZ...IT APPEARS IN
PART THAT THE 2 MCV/S THAT WERE APPROACHING FROM THE SW AHEAD OF
THE SHORT WAVE LARGELY DISSIPATED AND THE STORM STEERING FLOW TO
W AND NW OF ABQ HAS BECOME MORE WESTERLY WHICH MAY IMPLY WEAK
RIDGING THAT HAS DEVELOPED THERE. HRRR MODEL STILL DEVELOPS PRETTY
GOOD AMT OF CONVECTION TO W OF MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TOWARD 00Z
AND MOVES IT INTO THE JEMEZ WHILE THE NAM12 KEEPS DECENT
CONVECTION GOING WELL INTO THE EVE GENERALLY A BIT FARTHER SOUTH.
SO SOMEWHAT MIXED SIGNALS NOTED.

MON TO TUE PERIOD STILL LOOKING QUITE ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MON AND FROM HIGHLANDS
JUST EAST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON WEST TO THE DIVIDE DUE LARGELY
TO ADDED MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MON NIGHT...RESULTING
IN MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS. KEPT THE
MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ALREADY IN WX GRIDS THROUGH
MON...THOUGH EXPANDED EAST SOMEWHAT FOR TONIGHT IN THE EARLIER
UPDATE. WITH A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS
TUESDAY...POPS REDUCED A BIT. BUT CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA
ALL THE WAY TO THE DIVIDE SHOULD SEE IMPROVED CHANCES ALONG WITH
WHAT STILL LOOKS TO BE DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR HELPING TO SUSTAIN
UPDRAFTS. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL
EAST AND BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE STILL INDICATED
FOR WED...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND HEATING FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF
STORMS...BUT SOMEWHAT LESS COVERAGE COMPARED TO EARLY WEEK. FOR
LATE WEEK INTO SAT THE GFS STILL BULLISH FOR A DECENT BUT SOMEWHAT
NARROWER MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME ACROSS A GOOD PORTION OF CENTRAL
AND W NM...MAINTAINING DECENT TO VERY GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS
GOING WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REMAINING NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL. ECMWF MOVING A LITTLE CLOSER TO GFS SOLUTION BUT STILL
EXPANDS UPPER HIGH INTO THE STATE SOONER THAN THE GFS.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WILL HOLD STRONG OVER THE REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A POSSIBLE
DOWNTREND IN STORM COVERAGE AND UPTICK IN MAX TEMPS MAY THEN
ARRIVE FOR LATE WEEK.

SCATTERED STORMS THIS AFTERNOON MOVING NORTHEAST OVER THE AREA WILL
FOCUS HEAVIER RAINFALL BETWEEN THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A MODERATELY STRONG WIND SHIFT WILL ARRIVE
FROM THE NORTHEAST MONDAY MORNING AND SLIDE SOUTHWEST INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY MONDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL USHER ANOTHER SURGE OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA AND REFOCUS MORE LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL FROM THE DIVIDE EAST INTO THE PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
HEAVIEST ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES WILL BE ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES OF THE SANGRES/SANDIAS AND MANZANO MTS. GUSTY CANYON WINDS
ARE LIKELY AS WELL HOWEVER PEAK SPEEDS WILL ALSO BE REGULATED BY
CONVECTIVE COVERAGE. LOW TO MODERATE HAINES AND GENERALLY GOOD OR
BETTER VENT RATES WILL DOMINATE THIS PERIOD.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL THEN ATTEMPT TO SLOWLY DRIFT WEST AND
BEGIN A WARMING AND SLIGHT DRYING TREND. THE MAIN AXIS OF STORM
COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO SHRINK AND FOCUS MORE INTO WESTERN NM FROM
THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MIN RH VALUES WILL TREND BACK INTO THE
20S AND LOW 30S WHILE MAX TEMPS RISE BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ACTIVITY FIRING UP LATE THIS MORNING ALONG THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
HIGH TERRAIN WILL TURN TO NUMEROUS VIGOROUS TSRA WITH LCL HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. VSBYS FROM A
DIRECT HIT AT ANY TERMINAL COULD FALL TO BTWN 2 AND 3SM. STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE A DRIFT TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KTS. FAVORED
AREAS TODAY WILL BE FROM KGUP EAST TO KABQ/KAEG AND KLVS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NM. MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE
AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER PERSISTING ALONG AN AXIS FROM
KGUP TO KABQ/KSAF AND KLVS THIS EVENING. THE NEXT FEATURE WILL BE
A WIND SHIFT MOVING SW OVER EASTERN NM EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST SLOPES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  62  92  62  89 /  20  20  20  20
DULCE...........................  54  86  53  79 /  30  30  50  50
CUBA............................  55  84  53  78 /  60  50  70  40
GALLUP..........................  56  85  54  86 /  30  30  20  20
EL MORRO........................  54  83  52  83 /  50  40  60  30
GRANTS..........................  57  84  54  85 /  40  40  50  30
QUEMADO.........................  58  84  57  83 /  40  30  30  20
GLENWOOD........................  57  87  55  89 /  40  30  20  20
CHAMA...........................  51  78  51  74 /  30  60  70  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  60  82  57  75 /  70  70  70  60
PECOS...........................  57  80  55  73 /  40  70  70  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  54  77  52  71 /  50  70  60  70
RED RIVER.......................  47  67  47  63 /  50  70  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  52  67  51  63 /  40  70  70  70
TAOS............................  54  80  52  75 /  30  40  50  40
MORA............................  54  75  51  69 /  50  70  70  70
ESPANOLA........................  59  87  56  79 /  50  30  60  40
SANTA FE........................  59  82  58  76 /  50  50  70  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  84  58  80 /  40  30  60  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  64  86  64  83 /  60  30  60  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  66  88  65  85 /  60  30  50  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  64  90  63  87 /  50  30  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  65  89  65  86 /  50  30  50  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  65  90  63  86 /  50  30  40  30
RIO RANCHO......................  66  88  64  86 /  50  30  50  30
SOCORRO.........................  66  91  65  89 /  40  20  30  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  83  56  78 /  70  40  70  60
TIJERAS.........................  59  85  55  79 /  70  40  70  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  55  84  53  79 /  50  30  60  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  58  80  54  74 /  30  40  70  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  60  83  57  79 /  50  30  70  40
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  87  62  85 /  40  20  60  30
RUIDOSO.........................  58  81  55  75 /  50  50  70  40
CAPULIN.........................  60  75  53  73 /  40  70  60  20
RATON...........................  59  78  54  74 /  30  70  60  30
SPRINGER........................  60  80  55  75 /  30  70  60  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  57  77  52  71 /  30  70  60  40
CLAYTON.........................  65  80  57  77 /  20  60  50  20
ROY.............................  62  78  57  75 /  30  70  60  20
CONCHAS.........................  66  85  62  79 /  20  70  60  20
SANTA ROSA......................  66  88  61  79 /  30  50  60  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  68  90  62  82 /  20  50  60  20
CLOVIS..........................  67  88  62  79 /  10  40  60  30
PORTALES........................  68  90  64  80 /  10  30  70  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  66  93  64  81 /  20  30  60  20
ROSWELL.........................  67  94  68  86 /  20  30  50  30
PICACHO.........................  63  88  63  81 /  30  50  50  30
ELK.............................  61  84  62  77 /  50  50  50  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ505>509-518>522-524>526.

&&

$$

43



000
FXUS65 KABQ 051747 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1147 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ACTIVITY FIRING UP LATE THIS MORNING ALONG THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
HIGH TERRAIN WILL TURN TO NUMEROUS VIGOROUS TSRA WITH LCL HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. VSBYS FROM A
DIRECT HIT AT ANY TERMINAL COULD FALL TO BTWN 2 AND 3SM. STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE A DRIFT TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KTS. FAVORED
AREAS TODAY WILL BE FROM KGUP EAST TO KABQ/KAEG AND KLVS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NM. MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE
AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER PERSISTING ALONG AN AXIS FROM
KGUP TO KABQ/KSAF AND KLVS THIS EVENING. THE NEXT FEATURE WILL BE
A WIND SHIFT MOVING SW OVER EASTERN NM EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST SLOPES.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1135 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015...
.UPDATE...
HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE WEST HALF OF NM FOR
THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE AS ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITABLE WATER AMTS ARE
AT OR VERY NEAR THEIR HIGHS FOR THE SEASON AND GENERALLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS EARLY IN THE WET SEASON. HIGH PRESSURE HAS
RECENTERED TO THE SE OF THE STATE AND...ALSO IMPORTANT IN THE
DECISION TO HOIST THE WATCH...THERE IS A FAIRLY NOTICEABLE SHORT
WAVE COMING INTO FAR SE AZ AND AT LEAST 2 MCV SIGNATURES AT THE
MID LVLS ACROSS THE SW THIRD OF THE STATE...A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE. AS STATED IN WATCH DISCUSSION...IT APPEARS THE
GREATEST FLASH FLOOD RISK IS FROM THE MANZANOS SOUTH TO THE
SACRAMENTOS AND EVEN MORESO WESTWARD FROM THERE. UPDATED ZONES OUT
VERY SHORTLY.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...324 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...THANKS TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY...FOCUSING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
TODAY...THEN FOCUSING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK THANKS TO THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL TREND BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL BY LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS REVEALED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.0" AT
KFGZ...KTWC...KEPZ AND KABQ...WHICH ARE GREATER THAN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE AT ALL OF THOSE SITES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY. PWATS ARE
NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH FOR THE NEXT 48HRS...THANKS IN PART TO
A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...STORM MOTION WILL PICK-UP TODAY COMPARED TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO RECENTER SOUTH
OF OUR AREA ALLOWING STORMS TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AT 10-20
MPH. STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL
BE MOVING SLOWER THOUGH...AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THERE GIVEN 5-10 MPH MOTION. OUTFLOW FROM STORMS TO
THE WSW LATER TODAY WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS TO
THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO THIS EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH GIVEN THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THIS EVENT VERSUS A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS LOOKING VERY ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THANKS TO ADDED MOISTURE
AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
STRONG EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS. ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN AN ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PWAT ATMOSPHERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EAST MAY BE STABILIZED FOR MUCH
OF TUESDAY...BUT CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIGHT-UP WITH
DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS AND EASTWARD
MOTION POTENTIALLY INTO THE ABQ/SAF METRO AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL EAST AND BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND HEATING FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS...ALTHOUGH A DOWNTICK RELATIVE TO MON/TUE. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE AT ODDS FOR THU/FRI WITH THE MORE RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWING AN UPPER HIGH PUMPING UP OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS EJECTS THE EASTERN PACIFIC LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND DESERT SW. THE GFS WOULD KEEP GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS
GOING WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW NORMAL WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD HEAT THINGS UP AND TREND STORM COVERAGE DOWN. OUR FORECAST
IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE...FUELING TODAY`S CROP OF STORMS WHICH SHOULD FAVOR THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR WETTING RAINFALL
WILL EXIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL TODAY...AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL BE
QUITE ELEVATED IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST ZONES. A
WEAK LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS GOING OVER
THE PLAINS OF NM...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH. ELSEWHERE
BREEZES WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY LOCAL
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH A FEW STORMS LIKELY CARRYING ON BEYOND MIDNIGHT. A SURFACE
FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY...ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF I-40 BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE
SPILLING PAST THE SANGRES AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INTRODUCE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT...YIELDING INCREASED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY
SPREAD AND INCREASE SOUTH AND WEST INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
ADVANCES TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ALSO FARTHER SOUTHWARD.
GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...AND
HUMIDITY WILL SEE A BIT OF A BOOST MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THE
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH AGAIN ON TUESDAY...LIKELY FAVORING A BIT
MORE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS THAN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING
LANDFALL IN CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE NM WEATHER WITH A
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL PARTIALLY ACT TO
SQUEEZE AND STEER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NM...PRIMARILY THE
CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES. THIS WILL KEEP THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN
OVER NM THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE STATE BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH COULD INTRODUCE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING.

52

&&

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ501-502-504>509-511-518>522-524>526.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 051747 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1147 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ACTIVITY FIRING UP LATE THIS MORNING ALONG THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
HIGH TERRAIN WILL TURN TO NUMEROUS VIGOROUS TSRA WITH LCL HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY/ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL. VSBYS FROM A
DIRECT HIT AT ANY TERMINAL COULD FALL TO BTWN 2 AND 3SM. STORM
MOTIONS WILL BE A DRIFT TO THE EAST/NORTHEAST 5 TO 10 KTS. FAVORED
AREAS TODAY WILL BE FROM KGUP EAST TO KABQ/KAEG AND KLVS SOUTHWARD
INTO THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SOUTHERN NM. MODELS INDICATE POSSIBLE
AREA OF RAIN WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER PERSISTING ALONG AN AXIS FROM
KGUP TO KABQ/KSAF AND KLVS THIS EVENING. THE NEXT FEATURE WILL BE
A WIND SHIFT MOVING SW OVER EASTERN NM EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THIS
WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR MORE HEAVY RAINFALL MONDAY...PARTICULARLY
OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST SLOPES.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1135 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015...
.UPDATE...
HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE WEST HALF OF NM FOR
THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE AS ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITABLE WATER AMTS ARE
AT OR VERY NEAR THEIR HIGHS FOR THE SEASON AND GENERALLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS EARLY IN THE WET SEASON. HIGH PRESSURE HAS
RECENTERED TO THE SE OF THE STATE AND...ALSO IMPORTANT IN THE
DECISION TO HOIST THE WATCH...THERE IS A FAIRLY NOTICEABLE SHORT
WAVE COMING INTO FAR SE AZ AND AT LEAST 2 MCV SIGNATURES AT THE
MID LVLS ACROSS THE SW THIRD OF THE STATE...A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE. AS STATED IN WATCH DISCUSSION...IT APPEARS THE
GREATEST FLASH FLOOD RISK IS FROM THE MANZANOS SOUTH TO THE
SACRAMENTOS AND EVEN MORESO WESTWARD FROM THERE. UPDATED ZONES OUT
VERY SHORTLY.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...324 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...THANKS TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY...FOCUSING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
TODAY...THEN FOCUSING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK THANKS TO THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL TREND BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL BY LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS REVEALED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.0" AT
KFGZ...KTWC...KEPZ AND KABQ...WHICH ARE GREATER THAN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE AT ALL OF THOSE SITES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY. PWATS ARE
NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH FOR THE NEXT 48HRS...THANKS IN PART TO
A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...STORM MOTION WILL PICK-UP TODAY COMPARED TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO RECENTER SOUTH
OF OUR AREA ALLOWING STORMS TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AT 10-20
MPH. STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL
BE MOVING SLOWER THOUGH...AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THERE GIVEN 5-10 MPH MOTION. OUTFLOW FROM STORMS TO
THE WSW LATER TODAY WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS TO
THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO THIS EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH GIVEN THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THIS EVENT VERSUS A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS LOOKING VERY ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THANKS TO ADDED MOISTURE
AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
STRONG EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS. ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN AN ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PWAT ATMOSPHERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EAST MAY BE STABILIZED FOR MUCH
OF TUESDAY...BUT CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIGHT-UP WITH
DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS AND EASTWARD
MOTION POTENTIALLY INTO THE ABQ/SAF METRO AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL EAST AND BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND HEATING FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS...ALTHOUGH A DOWNTICK RELATIVE TO MON/TUE. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE AT ODDS FOR THU/FRI WITH THE MORE RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWING AN UPPER HIGH PUMPING UP OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS EJECTS THE EASTERN PACIFIC LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND DESERT SW. THE GFS WOULD KEEP GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS
GOING WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW NORMAL WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD HEAT THINGS UP AND TREND STORM COVERAGE DOWN. OUR FORECAST
IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE...FUELING TODAY`S CROP OF STORMS WHICH SHOULD FAVOR THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR WETTING RAINFALL
WILL EXIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL TODAY...AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL BE
QUITE ELEVATED IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST ZONES. A
WEAK LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS GOING OVER
THE PLAINS OF NM...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH. ELSEWHERE
BREEZES WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY LOCAL
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH A FEW STORMS LIKELY CARRYING ON BEYOND MIDNIGHT. A SURFACE
FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY...ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF I-40 BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE
SPILLING PAST THE SANGRES AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INTRODUCE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT...YIELDING INCREASED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY
SPREAD AND INCREASE SOUTH AND WEST INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
ADVANCES TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ALSO FARTHER SOUTHWARD.
GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...AND
HUMIDITY WILL SEE A BIT OF A BOOST MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THE
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH AGAIN ON TUESDAY...LIKELY FAVORING A BIT
MORE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS THAN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING
LANDFALL IN CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE NM WEATHER WITH A
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL PARTIALLY ACT TO
SQUEEZE AND STEER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NM...PRIMARILY THE
CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES. THIS WILL KEEP THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN
OVER NM THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE STATE BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH COULD INTRODUCE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING.

52

&&

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ501-502-504>509-511-518>522-524>526.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 051735
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1135 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE WEST HALF OF NM FOR
THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE AS ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITABLE WATER AMTS ARE
AT OR VERY NEAR THEIR HIGHS FOR THE SEASON AND GENERALLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS EARLY IN THE WET SEASON. HIGH PRESSURE HAS
RECENTERED TO THE SE OF THE STATE AND...ALSO IMPORTANT IN THE
DECISION TO HOIST THE WATCH...THERE IS A FAIRLY NOTICEABLE SHORT
WAVE COMING INTO FAR SE AZ AND AT LEAST 2 MCV SIGNATURES AT THE
MID LVLS ACROSS THE SW THIRD OF THE STATE...A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE. AS STATED IN WATCH DISCUSSION...IT APPEARS THE
GREATEST FLASH FLOOD RISK IS FROM THE MANZANOS SOUTH TO THE
SACRAMENTOS AND EVEN MORESO WESTWARD FROM THERE. UPDATED ZONES OUT
VERY SHORTLY.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...559 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUD DEBRIS HAVE BEEN LEFT BEHIND YESTERDAY`S
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS THESE SLOWLY THIN OUT...NEW CUMULUS
BUILD-UPS WILL OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING. STORMS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WHILE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO ADJACENT
VALLEYS AND LOWLANDS...BUT SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE FAR EASTERN
TIER OF NEW MEXICO. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REDUCE
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY TO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES...AND ERRATIC
DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE LATE EVENING...SOME STORMS COULD LINGER
BEYOND MIDNIGHT.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...324 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...THANKS TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY...FOCUSING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
TODAY...THEN FOCUSING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK THANKS TO THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL TREND BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL BY LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS REVEALED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.0" AT
KFGZ...KTWC...KEPZ AND KABQ...WHICH ARE GREATER THAN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE AT ALL OF THOSE SITES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY. PWATS ARE
NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH FOR THE NEXT 48HRS...THANKS IN PART TO
A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...STORM MOTION WILL PICK-UP TODAY COMPARED TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO RECENTER SOUTH
OF OUR AREA ALLOWING STORMS TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AT 10-20
MPH. STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL
BE MOVING SLOWER THOUGH...AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THERE GIVEN 5-10 MPH MOTION. OUTFLOW FROM STORMS TO
THE WSW LATER TODAY WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS TO
THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO THIS EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH GIVEN THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THIS EVENT VERSUS A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS LOOKING VERY ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THANKS TO ADDED MOISTURE
AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
STRONG EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS. ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN AN ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PWAT ATMOSPHERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EAST MAY BE STABILIZED FOR MUCH
OF TUESDAY...BUT CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIGHT-UP WITH
DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS AND EASTWARD
MOTION POTENTIALLY INTO THE ABQ/SAF METRO AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL EAST AND BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND HEATING FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS...ALTHOUGH A DOWNTICK RELATIVE TO MON/TUE. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE AT ODDS FOR THU/FRI WITH THE MORE RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWING AN UPPER HIGH PUMPING UP OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS EJECTS THE EASTERN PACIFIC LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND DESERT SW. THE GFS WOULD KEEP GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS
GOING WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW NORMAL WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD HEAT THINGS UP AND TREND STORM COVERAGE DOWN. OUR FORECAST
IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE...FUELING TODAY`S CROP OF STORMS WHICH SHOULD FAVOR THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR WETTING RAINFALL
WILL EXIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL TODAY...AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL BE
QUITE ELEVATED IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST ZONES. A
WEAK LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS GOING OVER
THE PLAINS OF NM...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH. ELSEWHERE
BREEZES WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY LOCAL
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH A FEW STORMS LIKELY CARRYING ON BEYOND MIDNIGHT. A SURFACE
FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY...ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF I-40 BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE
SPILLING PAST THE SANGRES AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INTRODUCE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT...YIELDING INCREASED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY
SPREAD AND INCREASE SOUTH AND WEST INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
ADVANCES TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ALSO FARTHER SOUTHWARD.
GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...AND
HUMIDITY WILL SEE A BIT OF A BOOST MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THE
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH AGAIN ON TUESDAY...LIKELY FAVORING A BIT
MORE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS THAN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING
LANDFALL IN CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE NM WEATHER WITH A
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL PARTIALLY ACT TO
SQUEEZE AND STEER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NM...PRIMARILY THE
CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES. THIS WILL KEEP THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN
OVER NM THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE STATE BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH COULD INTRODUCE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING.

52

&&

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ501-502-504>509-511-518>522-524>526.

&&

$$

43



000
FXUS65 KABQ 051735
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1135 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE WEST HALF OF NM FOR
THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE AS ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITABLE WATER AMTS ARE
AT OR VERY NEAR THEIR HIGHS FOR THE SEASON AND GENERALLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS EARLY IN THE WET SEASON. HIGH PRESSURE HAS
RECENTERED TO THE SE OF THE STATE AND...ALSO IMPORTANT IN THE
DECISION TO HOIST THE WATCH...THERE IS A FAIRLY NOTICEABLE SHORT
WAVE COMING INTO FAR SE AZ AND AT LEAST 2 MCV SIGNATURES AT THE
MID LVLS ACROSS THE SW THIRD OF THE STATE...A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE. AS STATED IN WATCH DISCUSSION...IT APPEARS THE
GREATEST FLASH FLOOD RISK IS FROM THE MANZANOS SOUTH TO THE
SACRAMENTOS AND EVEN MORESO WESTWARD FROM THERE. UPDATED ZONES OUT
VERY SHORTLY.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...559 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUD DEBRIS HAVE BEEN LEFT BEHIND YESTERDAY`S
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS THESE SLOWLY THIN OUT...NEW CUMULUS
BUILD-UPS WILL OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING. STORMS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WHILE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO ADJACENT
VALLEYS AND LOWLANDS...BUT SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE FAR EASTERN
TIER OF NEW MEXICO. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REDUCE
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY TO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES...AND ERRATIC
DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE LATE EVENING...SOME STORMS COULD LINGER
BEYOND MIDNIGHT.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...324 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...THANKS TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY...FOCUSING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
TODAY...THEN FOCUSING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK THANKS TO THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL TREND BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL BY LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS REVEALED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.0" AT
KFGZ...KTWC...KEPZ AND KABQ...WHICH ARE GREATER THAN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE AT ALL OF THOSE SITES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY. PWATS ARE
NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH FOR THE NEXT 48HRS...THANKS IN PART TO
A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...STORM MOTION WILL PICK-UP TODAY COMPARED TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO RECENTER SOUTH
OF OUR AREA ALLOWING STORMS TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AT 10-20
MPH. STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL
BE MOVING SLOWER THOUGH...AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THERE GIVEN 5-10 MPH MOTION. OUTFLOW FROM STORMS TO
THE WSW LATER TODAY WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS TO
THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO THIS EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH GIVEN THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THIS EVENT VERSUS A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS LOOKING VERY ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THANKS TO ADDED MOISTURE
AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
STRONG EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS. ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN AN ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PWAT ATMOSPHERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EAST MAY BE STABILIZED FOR MUCH
OF TUESDAY...BUT CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIGHT-UP WITH
DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS AND EASTWARD
MOTION POTENTIALLY INTO THE ABQ/SAF METRO AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL EAST AND BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND HEATING FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS...ALTHOUGH A DOWNTICK RELATIVE TO MON/TUE. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE AT ODDS FOR THU/FRI WITH THE MORE RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWING AN UPPER HIGH PUMPING UP OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS EJECTS THE EASTERN PACIFIC LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND DESERT SW. THE GFS WOULD KEEP GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS
GOING WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW NORMAL WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD HEAT THINGS UP AND TREND STORM COVERAGE DOWN. OUR FORECAST
IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE...FUELING TODAY`S CROP OF STORMS WHICH SHOULD FAVOR THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR WETTING RAINFALL
WILL EXIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL TODAY...AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL BE
QUITE ELEVATED IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST ZONES. A
WEAK LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS GOING OVER
THE PLAINS OF NM...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH. ELSEWHERE
BREEZES WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY LOCAL
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH A FEW STORMS LIKELY CARRYING ON BEYOND MIDNIGHT. A SURFACE
FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY...ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF I-40 BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE
SPILLING PAST THE SANGRES AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INTRODUCE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT...YIELDING INCREASED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY
SPREAD AND INCREASE SOUTH AND WEST INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
ADVANCES TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ALSO FARTHER SOUTHWARD.
GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...AND
HUMIDITY WILL SEE A BIT OF A BOOST MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THE
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH AGAIN ON TUESDAY...LIKELY FAVORING A BIT
MORE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS THAN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING
LANDFALL IN CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE NM WEATHER WITH A
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL PARTIALLY ACT TO
SQUEEZE AND STEER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NM...PRIMARILY THE
CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES. THIS WILL KEEP THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN
OVER NM THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE STATE BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH COULD INTRODUCE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING.

52

&&

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ501-502-504>509-511-518>522-524>526.

&&

$$

43



000
FXUS65 KABQ 051735
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1135 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE WEST HALF OF NM FOR
THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE AS ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITABLE WATER AMTS ARE
AT OR VERY NEAR THEIR HIGHS FOR THE SEASON AND GENERALLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS EARLY IN THE WET SEASON. HIGH PRESSURE HAS
RECENTERED TO THE SE OF THE STATE AND...ALSO IMPORTANT IN THE
DECISION TO HOIST THE WATCH...THERE IS A FAIRLY NOTICEABLE SHORT
WAVE COMING INTO FAR SE AZ AND AT LEAST 2 MCV SIGNATURES AT THE
MID LVLS ACROSS THE SW THIRD OF THE STATE...A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE. AS STATED IN WATCH DISCUSSION...IT APPEARS THE
GREATEST FLASH FLOOD RISK IS FROM THE MANZANOS SOUTH TO THE
SACRAMENTOS AND EVEN MORESO WESTWARD FROM THERE. UPDATED ZONES OUT
VERY SHORTLY.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...559 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUD DEBRIS HAVE BEEN LEFT BEHIND YESTERDAY`S
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS THESE SLOWLY THIN OUT...NEW CUMULUS
BUILD-UPS WILL OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING. STORMS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WHILE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO ADJACENT
VALLEYS AND LOWLANDS...BUT SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE FAR EASTERN
TIER OF NEW MEXICO. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REDUCE
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY TO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES...AND ERRATIC
DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE LATE EVENING...SOME STORMS COULD LINGER
BEYOND MIDNIGHT.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...324 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...THANKS TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY...FOCUSING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
TODAY...THEN FOCUSING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK THANKS TO THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL TREND BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL BY LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS REVEALED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.0" AT
KFGZ...KTWC...KEPZ AND KABQ...WHICH ARE GREATER THAN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE AT ALL OF THOSE SITES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY. PWATS ARE
NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH FOR THE NEXT 48HRS...THANKS IN PART TO
A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...STORM MOTION WILL PICK-UP TODAY COMPARED TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO RECENTER SOUTH
OF OUR AREA ALLOWING STORMS TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AT 10-20
MPH. STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL
BE MOVING SLOWER THOUGH...AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THERE GIVEN 5-10 MPH MOTION. OUTFLOW FROM STORMS TO
THE WSW LATER TODAY WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS TO
THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO THIS EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH GIVEN THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THIS EVENT VERSUS A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS LOOKING VERY ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THANKS TO ADDED MOISTURE
AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
STRONG EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS. ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN AN ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PWAT ATMOSPHERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EAST MAY BE STABILIZED FOR MUCH
OF TUESDAY...BUT CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIGHT-UP WITH
DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS AND EASTWARD
MOTION POTENTIALLY INTO THE ABQ/SAF METRO AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL EAST AND BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND HEATING FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS...ALTHOUGH A DOWNTICK RELATIVE TO MON/TUE. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE AT ODDS FOR THU/FRI WITH THE MORE RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWING AN UPPER HIGH PUMPING UP OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS EJECTS THE EASTERN PACIFIC LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND DESERT SW. THE GFS WOULD KEEP GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS
GOING WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW NORMAL WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD HEAT THINGS UP AND TREND STORM COVERAGE DOWN. OUR FORECAST
IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE...FUELING TODAY`S CROP OF STORMS WHICH SHOULD FAVOR THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR WETTING RAINFALL
WILL EXIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL TODAY...AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL BE
QUITE ELEVATED IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST ZONES. A
WEAK LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS GOING OVER
THE PLAINS OF NM...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH. ELSEWHERE
BREEZES WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY LOCAL
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH A FEW STORMS LIKELY CARRYING ON BEYOND MIDNIGHT. A SURFACE
FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY...ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF I-40 BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE
SPILLING PAST THE SANGRES AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INTRODUCE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT...YIELDING INCREASED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY
SPREAD AND INCREASE SOUTH AND WEST INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
ADVANCES TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ALSO FARTHER SOUTHWARD.
GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...AND
HUMIDITY WILL SEE A BIT OF A BOOST MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THE
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH AGAIN ON TUESDAY...LIKELY FAVORING A BIT
MORE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS THAN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING
LANDFALL IN CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE NM WEATHER WITH A
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL PARTIALLY ACT TO
SQUEEZE AND STEER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NM...PRIMARILY THE
CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES. THIS WILL KEEP THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN
OVER NM THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE STATE BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH COULD INTRODUCE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING.

52

&&

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ501-502-504>509-511-518>522-524>526.

&&

$$

43




000
FXUS65 KABQ 051735
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1135 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.UPDATE...
HOISTED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MOST OF THE WEST HALF OF NM FOR
THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVE AS ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITABLE WATER AMTS ARE
AT OR VERY NEAR THEIR HIGHS FOR THE SEASON AND GENERALLY ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS EARLY IN THE WET SEASON. HIGH PRESSURE HAS
RECENTERED TO THE SE OF THE STATE AND...ALSO IMPORTANT IN THE
DECISION TO HOIST THE WATCH...THERE IS A FAIRLY NOTICEABLE SHORT
WAVE COMING INTO FAR SE AZ AND AT LEAST 2 MCV SIGNATURES AT THE
MID LVLS ACROSS THE SW THIRD OF THE STATE...A LITTLE AHEAD OF THE
SHORT WAVE. AS STATED IN WATCH DISCUSSION...IT APPEARS THE
GREATEST FLASH FLOOD RISK IS FROM THE MANZANOS SOUTH TO THE
SACRAMENTOS AND EVEN MORESO WESTWARD FROM THERE. UPDATED ZONES OUT
VERY SHORTLY.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...559 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUD DEBRIS HAVE BEEN LEFT BEHIND YESTERDAY`S
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS THESE SLOWLY THIN OUT...NEW CUMULUS
BUILD-UPS WILL OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING. STORMS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WHILE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO ADJACENT
VALLEYS AND LOWLANDS...BUT SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE FAR EASTERN
TIER OF NEW MEXICO. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REDUCE
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY TO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES...AND ERRATIC
DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE LATE EVENING...SOME STORMS COULD LINGER
BEYOND MIDNIGHT.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...324 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...THANKS TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY...FOCUSING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
TODAY...THEN FOCUSING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK THANKS TO THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL TREND BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL BY LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS REVEALED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.0" AT
KFGZ...KTWC...KEPZ AND KABQ...WHICH ARE GREATER THAN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE AT ALL OF THOSE SITES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY. PWATS ARE
NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH FOR THE NEXT 48HRS...THANKS IN PART TO
A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...STORM MOTION WILL PICK-UP TODAY COMPARED TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO RECENTER SOUTH
OF OUR AREA ALLOWING STORMS TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AT 10-20
MPH. STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL
BE MOVING SLOWER THOUGH...AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THERE GIVEN 5-10 MPH MOTION. OUTFLOW FROM STORMS TO
THE WSW LATER TODAY WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS TO
THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO THIS EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH GIVEN THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THIS EVENT VERSUS A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS LOOKING VERY ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THANKS TO ADDED MOISTURE
AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
STRONG EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS. ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN AN ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PWAT ATMOSPHERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EAST MAY BE STABILIZED FOR MUCH
OF TUESDAY...BUT CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIGHT-UP WITH
DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS AND EASTWARD
MOTION POTENTIALLY INTO THE ABQ/SAF METRO AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL EAST AND BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND HEATING FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS...ALTHOUGH A DOWNTICK RELATIVE TO MON/TUE. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE AT ODDS FOR THU/FRI WITH THE MORE RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWING AN UPPER HIGH PUMPING UP OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS EJECTS THE EASTERN PACIFIC LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND DESERT SW. THE GFS WOULD KEEP GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS
GOING WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW NORMAL WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD HEAT THINGS UP AND TREND STORM COVERAGE DOWN. OUR FORECAST
IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE...FUELING TODAY`S CROP OF STORMS WHICH SHOULD FAVOR THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR WETTING RAINFALL
WILL EXIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL TODAY...AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL BE
QUITE ELEVATED IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST ZONES. A
WEAK LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS GOING OVER
THE PLAINS OF NM...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH. ELSEWHERE
BREEZES WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY LOCAL
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH A FEW STORMS LIKELY CARRYING ON BEYOND MIDNIGHT. A SURFACE
FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY...ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF I-40 BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE
SPILLING PAST THE SANGRES AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INTRODUCE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT...YIELDING INCREASED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY
SPREAD AND INCREASE SOUTH AND WEST INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
ADVANCES TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ALSO FARTHER SOUTHWARD.
GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...AND
HUMIDITY WILL SEE A BIT OF A BOOST MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THE
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH AGAIN ON TUESDAY...LIKELY FAVORING A BIT
MORE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS THAN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING
LANDFALL IN CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE NM WEATHER WITH A
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL PARTIALLY ACT TO
SQUEEZE AND STEER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NM...PRIMARILY THE
CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES. THIS WILL KEEP THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN
OVER NM THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE STATE BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH COULD INTRODUCE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING.

52

&&

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES... NMZ501-502-504>509-511-518>522-524>526.

&&

$$

43




000
FXUS65 KABQ 051159
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
559 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUD DEBRIS HAVE BEEN LEFT BEHIND YESTERDAY`S
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS THESE SLOWLY THIN OUT...NEW CUMULUS
BUILD-UPS WILL OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING. STORMS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WHILE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO ADJACENT
VALLEYS AND LOWLANDS...BUT SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE FAR EASTERN
TIER OF NEW MEXICO. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REDUCE
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY TO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES...AND ERRATIC
DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE LATE EVENING...SOME STORMS COULD LINGER
BEYOND MIDNIGHT.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...324 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...THANKS TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY...FOCUSING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
TODAY...THEN FOCUSING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK THANKS TO THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL TREND BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL BY LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS REVEALED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.0" AT
KFGZ...KTWC...KEPZ AND KABQ...WHICH ARE GREATER THAN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE AT ALL OF THOSE SITES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY. PWATS ARE
NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH FOR THE NEXT 48HRS...THANKS IN PART TO
A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...STORM MOTION WILL PICK-UP TODAY COMPARED TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO RECENTER SOUTH
OF OUR AREA ALLOWING STORMS TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AT 10-20
MPH. STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL
BE MOVING SLOWER THOUGH...AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THERE GIVEN 5-10 MPH MOTION. OUTFLOW FROM STORMS TO
THE WSW LATER TODAY WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS TO
THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO THIS EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH GIVEN THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THIS EVENT VERSUS A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS LOOKING VERY ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THANKS TO ADDED MOISTURE
AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
STRONG EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS. ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN AN ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PWAT ATMOSPHERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EAST MAY BE STABILIZED FOR MUCH
OF TUESDAY...BUT CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIGHT-UP WITH
DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS AND EASTWARD
MOTION POTENTIALLY INTO THE ABQ/SAF METRO AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL EAST AND BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND HEATING FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS...ALTHOUGH A DOWNTICK RELATIVE TO MON/TUE. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE AT ODDS FOR THU/FRI WITH THE MORE RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWING AN UPPER HIGH PUMPING UP OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS EJECTS THE EASTERN PACIFIC LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND DESERT SW. THE GFS WOULD KEEP GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS
GOING WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW NORMAL WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD HEAT THINGS UP AND TREND STORM COVERAGE DOWN. OUR FORECAST
IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE...FUELING TODAY`S CROP OF STORMS WHICH SHOULD FAVOR THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR WETTING RAINFALL
WILL EXIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL TODAY...AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL BE
QUITE ELEVATED IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST ZONES. A
WEAK LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS GOING OVER
THE PLAINS OF NM...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH. ELSEWHERE
BREEZES WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY LOCAL
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH A FEW STORMS LIKELY CARRYING ON BEYOND MIDNIGHT. A SURFACE
FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY...ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF I-40 BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE
SPILLING PAST THE SANGRES AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INTRODUCE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT...YIELDING INCREASED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY
SPREAD AND INCREASE SOUTH AND WEST INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
ADVANCES TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ALSO FARTHER SOUTHWARD.
GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...AND
HUMIDITY WILL SEE A BIT OF A BOOST MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THE
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH AGAIN ON TUESDAY...LIKELY FAVORING A BIT
MORE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS THAN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING
LANDFALL IN CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE NM WEATHER WITH A
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL PARTIALLY ACT TO
SQUEEZE AND STEER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NM...PRIMARILY THE
CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES. THIS WILL KEEP THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN
OVER NM THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE STATE BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH COULD INTRODUCE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING.

52

&&

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 051159
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
559 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE

A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUD DEBRIS HAVE BEEN LEFT BEHIND YESTERDAY`S
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. AS THESE SLOWLY THIN OUT...NEW CUMULUS
BUILD-UPS WILL OCCUR OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
WITH ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING. STORMS WILL BECOME
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS WHILE DRIFTING EASTWARD INTO ADJACENT
VALLEYS AND LOWLANDS...BUT SHOULD STAY OUT OF THE FAR EASTERN
TIER OF NEW MEXICO. BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL REDUCE
CEILINGS/VISIBILITY TO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES...AND ERRATIC
DOWNBURST WINDS AND SMALL HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
WHILE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE
SUBSTANTIALLY IN THE LATE EVENING...SOME STORMS COULD LINGER
BEYOND MIDNIGHT.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...324 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...THANKS TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY...FOCUSING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
TODAY...THEN FOCUSING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK THANKS TO THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL TREND BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL BY LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS REVEALED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.0" AT
KFGZ...KTWC...KEPZ AND KABQ...WHICH ARE GREATER THAN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE AT ALL OF THOSE SITES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY. PWATS ARE
NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH FOR THE NEXT 48HRS...THANKS IN PART TO
A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...STORM MOTION WILL PICK-UP TODAY COMPARED TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO RECENTER SOUTH
OF OUR AREA ALLOWING STORMS TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AT 10-20
MPH. STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL
BE MOVING SLOWER THOUGH...AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THERE GIVEN 5-10 MPH MOTION. OUTFLOW FROM STORMS TO
THE WSW LATER TODAY WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS TO
THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO THIS EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH GIVEN THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THIS EVENT VERSUS A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS LOOKING VERY ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THANKS TO ADDED MOISTURE
AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
STRONG EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS. ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN AN ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PWAT ATMOSPHERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EAST MAY BE STABILIZED FOR MUCH
OF TUESDAY...BUT CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIGHT-UP WITH
DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS AND EASTWARD
MOTION POTENTIALLY INTO THE ABQ/SAF METRO AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL EAST AND BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND HEATING FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS...ALTHOUGH A DOWNTICK RELATIVE TO MON/TUE. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE AT ODDS FOR THU/FRI WITH THE MORE RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWING AN UPPER HIGH PUMPING UP OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS EJECTS THE EASTERN PACIFIC LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND DESERT SW. THE GFS WOULD KEEP GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS
GOING WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW NORMAL WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD HEAT THINGS UP AND TREND STORM COVERAGE DOWN. OUR FORECAST
IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE...FUELING TODAY`S CROP OF STORMS WHICH SHOULD FAVOR THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR WETTING RAINFALL
WILL EXIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL TODAY...AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL BE
QUITE ELEVATED IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST ZONES. A
WEAK LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS GOING OVER
THE PLAINS OF NM...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH. ELSEWHERE
BREEZES WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY LOCAL
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH A FEW STORMS LIKELY CARRYING ON BEYOND MIDNIGHT. A SURFACE
FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY...ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF I-40 BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE
SPILLING PAST THE SANGRES AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INTRODUCE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT...YIELDING INCREASED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY
SPREAD AND INCREASE SOUTH AND WEST INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
ADVANCES TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ALSO FARTHER SOUTHWARD.
GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...AND
HUMIDITY WILL SEE A BIT OF A BOOST MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THE
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH AGAIN ON TUESDAY...LIKELY FAVORING A BIT
MORE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS THAN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING
LANDFALL IN CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE NM WEATHER WITH A
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL PARTIALLY ACT TO
SQUEEZE AND STEER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NM...PRIMARILY THE
CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES. THIS WILL KEEP THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN
OVER NM THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE STATE BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH COULD INTRODUCE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING.

52

&&

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 050924
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
324 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...THANKS TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY...FOCUSING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
TODAY...THEN FOCUSING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK THANKS TO THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL TREND BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL BY LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS REVEALED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.0" AT
KFGZ...KTWC...KEPZ AND KABQ...WHICH ARE GREATER THAN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE AT ALL OF THOSE SITES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY. PWATS ARE
NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH FOR THE NEXT 48HRS...THANKS IN PART TO
A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...STORM MOTION WILL PICK-UP TODAY COMPARED TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO RECENTER SOUTH
OF OUR AREA ALLOWING STORMS TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AT 10-20
MPH. STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL
BE MOVING SLOWER THOUGH...AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THERE GIVEN 5-10 MPH MOTION. OUTFLOW FROM STORMS TO
THE WSW LATER TODAY WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS TO
THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO THIS EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH GIVEN THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THIS EVENT VERSUS A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS LOOKING VERY ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THANKS TO ADDED MOISTURE
AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
STRONG EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS. ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN AN ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PWAT ATMOSPHERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EAST MAY BE STABILIZED FOR MUCH
OF TUESDAY...BUT CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIGHT-UP WITH
DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS AND EASTWARD
MOTION POTENTIALLY INTO THE ABQ/SAF METRO AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL EAST AND BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND HEATING FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS...ALTHOUGH A DOWNTICK RELATIVE TO MON/TUE. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE AT ODDS FOR THU/FRI WITH THE MORE RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWING AN UPPER HIGH PUMPING UP OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS EJECTS THE EASTERN PACIFIC LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND DESERT SW. THE GFS WOULD KEEP GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS
GOING WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW NORMAL WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD HEAT THINGS UP AND TREND STORM COVERAGE DOWN. OUR FORECAST
IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE...FUELING TODAY`S CROP OF STORMS WHICH SHOULD FAVOR THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR WETTING RAINFALL
WILL EXIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL TODAY...AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL BE
QUITE ELEVATED IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST ZONES. A
WEAK LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS GOING OVER
THE PLAINS OF NM...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH. ELSEWHERE
BREEZES WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY LOCAL
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH A FEW STORMS LIKELY CARRYING ON BEYOND MIDNIGHT. A SURFACE
FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY...ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF I-40 BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE
SPILLING PAST THE SANGRES AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INTRODUCE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT...YIELDING INCREASED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY
SPREAD AND INCREASE SOUTH AND WEST INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
ADVANCES TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ALSO FARTHER SOUTHWARD.
GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...AND
HUMIDITY WILL SEE A BIT OF A BOOST MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THE
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH AGAIN ON TUESDAY...LIKELY FAVORING A BIT
MORE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS THAN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING
LANDFALL IN CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE NM WEATHER WITH A
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL PARTIALLY ACT TO
SQUEEZE AND STEER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NM...PRIMARILY THE
CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES. THIS WILL KEEP THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN
OVER NM THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE STATE BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH COULD INTRODUCE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING.

52

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER HIGH CENTER HAS SHIFTED TO VCNTY CENTRAL OR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE WITH
DISTURBANCE INDICATED BY MODELS TO MOVE OVER ERN AZ/WRN NM AND
INTO NRN NM THRU 05/21Z. SFC LEE TROUGH CONTINUING...AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO DEVELOP AFT
10Z ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AFFECTING THE
KLVS TAF...AND ISOLD MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WEST CENTRAL NM AS WELL.
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS TO IGNITE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
05/18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  87  63  87  62 /  20  20  30  20
DULCE...........................  83  54  83  53 /  40  30  30  50
CUBA............................  81  55  81  53 /  50  60  50  70
GALLUP..........................  82  56  82  54 /  40  30  30  20
EL MORRO........................  79  54  81  52 /  60  50  40  60
GRANTS..........................  83  57  84  54 /  50  30  40  50
QUEMADO.........................  79  58  82  57 /  50  30  30  30
GLENWOOD........................  84  57  86  55 /  40  40  30  20
CHAMA...........................  79  52  77  51 /  60  30  60  70
LOS ALAMOS......................  81  59  79  57 /  70  70  70  70
PECOS...........................  81  57  77  55 /  40  40  70  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  78  54  75  52 /  40  50  70  60
RED RIVER.......................  69  47  65  47 /  60  50  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  70  52  66  51 /  50  40  70  70
TAOS............................  82  54  78  52 /  30  30  40  50
MORA............................  78  54  71  51 /  60  50  70  70
ESPANOLA........................  85  59  83  56 /  30  50  30  60
SANTA FE........................  83  61  79  58 /  30  50  50  70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  85  60  81  57 /  30  40  30  60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  87  66  86  64 /  30  60  30  60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  88  67  87  65 /  30  50  30  50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  90  65  90  63 /  30  50  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  89  67  89  65 /  30  50  30  50
LOS LUNAS.......................  90  65  90  63 /  30  50  30  40
RIO RANCHO......................  89  66  88  64 /  30  50  30  50
SOCORRO.........................  90  66  92  65 /  30  40  20  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  84  59  82  56 /  40  70  40  70
TIJERAS.........................  85  58  83  55 /  40  60  40  70
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  85  56  83  53 /  30  50  30  60
CLINES CORNERS..................  82  58  80  54 /  30  30  40  70
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  84  60  82  57 /  30  30  30  70
CARRIZOZO.......................  87  63  88  62 /  30  40  20  60
RUIDOSO.........................  78  58  78  55 /  60  40  50  70
CAPULIN.........................  83  60  73  53 /  30  40  70  60
RATON...........................  84  59  75  54 /  30  30  70  60
SPRINGER........................  85  60  77  55 /  30  30  70  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  82  57  75  52 /  30  30  70  60
CLAYTON.........................  93  65  79  57 /  10  20  60  50
ROY.............................  88  62  79  57 /  10  30  70  60
CONCHAS.........................  94  68  86  62 /  10  20  70  60
SANTA ROSA......................  92  66  88  61 /  10  30  50  60
TUCUMCARI.......................  97  69  89  62 /   5  20  50  60
CLOVIS..........................  90  67  88  62 /   5  10  40  60
PORTALES........................  91  68  90  64 /   5  10  30  70
FORT SUMNER.....................  92  68  90  64 /   5  20  30  60
ROSWELL.........................  96  70  94  68 /   5  20  30  50
PICACHO.........................  88  63  88  63 /  20  30  50  50
ELK.............................  84  61  84  62 /  50  50  50  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11



000
FXUS65 KABQ 050924
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
324 AM MDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
TUESDAY...THANKS TO A BACKDOOR FRONT FORECAST TO PUSH THROUGH
MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE OVER THE
AREA. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY...FOCUSING OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS
TODAY...THEN FOCUSING OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH
MID WEEK THANKS TO THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND RAIN COOLING
ASSOCIATED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...BUT WILL TREND BACK UP TO NEAR
NORMAL BY LATE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
00Z UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS REVEALED ANOMALOUSLY HIGH ATMOSPHERIC
MOISTURE OVER THE REGION...WITH PWATS GREATER THAN 1.0" AT
KFGZ...KTWC...KEPZ AND KABQ...WHICH ARE GREATER THAN THE 90TH
PERCENTILE AT ALL OF THOSE SITES FOR THE CALENDAR DAY. PWATS ARE
NOT FORECAST TO CHANGE MUCH FOR THE NEXT 48HRS...THANKS IN PART TO
A BACKDOOR FRONT WHICH WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
IN THE MEANTIME...STORM MOTION WILL PICK-UP TODAY COMPARED TO THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE UPPER HIGH CONTINUES TO RECENTER SOUTH
OF OUR AREA ALLOWING STORMS TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST AT 10-20
MPH. STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL
BE MOVING SLOWER THOUGH...AND HAVE ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL THERE GIVEN 5-10 MPH MOTION. OUTFLOW FROM STORMS TO
THE WSW LATER TODAY WILL BRING GOOD CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS TO
THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO THIS EVENING...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. HAVE OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH GIVEN THE LOCALIZED NATURE OF THIS EVENT VERSUS A MORE
WIDESPREAD THREAT.

MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY IS LOOKING VERY ACTIVE...ESPECIALLY
ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THANKS TO ADDED MOISTURE
AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT. THE FRONT WILL PUSH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN
STRONG EAST CANYON/GAP WINDS. ADDED A MENTION OF LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL TO THE EAST LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...WITH DEEP
CONVECTION ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN AN ANOMALOUSLY
HIGH PWAT ATMOSPHERE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
AMOUNTS. THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS THE EAST MAY BE STABILIZED FOR MUCH
OF TUESDAY...BUT CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA WILL LIGHT-UP WITH
DECENT DIRECTIONAL SHEAR PROFILES SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS AND EASTWARD
MOTION POTENTIALLY INTO THE ABQ/SAF METRO AREA BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW
NORMAL EAST AND BELOW NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

RIDGING IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND HEATING FOR ANOTHER ROUND
OF STORMS...ALTHOUGH A DOWNTICK RELATIVE TO MON/TUE. THE MEDIUM
RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE AT ODDS FOR THU/FRI WITH THE MORE RUN-
TO-RUN CONSISTENT ECMWF SHOWING AN UPPER HIGH PUMPING UP OVER THE
AREA WHILE THE GFS EJECTS THE EASTERN PACIFIC LOW OVER THE GREAT
BASIN AND DESERT SW. THE GFS WOULD KEEP GOOD CHANCES FOR STORMS
GOING WITH HIGHS GENERALLY REMAINING BELOW NORMAL WHILE THE ECMWF
WOULD HEAT THINGS UP AND TREND STORM COVERAGE DOWN. OUR FORECAST
IS CLOSER TO THE ECMWF AT THIS POINT.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE STRETCH OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW DAYS. ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL BE IN
PLACE...FUELING TODAY`S CROP OF STORMS WHICH SHOULD FAVOR THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR WETTING RAINFALL
WILL EXIST OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS ALONG WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF NORMAL TODAY...AND MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL BE
QUITE ELEVATED IN THE 30 TO 50 PERCENT RANGE FOR MOST ZONES. A
WEAK LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL KEEP SOUTHERLY WINDS GOING OVER
THE PLAINS OF NM...OCCASIONALLY GUSTING TO 25 TO 30 MPH. ELSEWHERE
BREEZES WILL PREDOMINANTLY BE LIGHT OUTSIDE OF ANY LOCAL
THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOWS.

EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERY IS EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING
WITH A FEW STORMS LIKELY CARRYING ON BEYOND MIDNIGHT. A SURFACE
FRONT WILL BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST BY SUNRISE MONDAY...ADVANCING
SOUTHWARD AND WESTWARD THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
LIKELY HAVE PUSHED SOUTH OF I-40 BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL BE
SPILLING PAST THE SANGRES AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS BOUNDARY WILL
INTRODUCE A SLIGHT UPTICK IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE ALONG WITH AN
UPSLOPE COMPONENT...YIELDING INCREASED SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES MONDAY AFTERNOON. STORMS WILL LIKELY
SPREAD AND INCREASE SOUTH AND WEST INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT
ADVANCES TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND ALSO FARTHER SOUTHWARD.
GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP IN CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK A FEW DEGREES BELOW AVERAGE...AND
HUMIDITY WILL SEE A BIT OF A BOOST MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY. THE
STORM COVERAGE WILL BE HIGH AGAIN ON TUESDAY...LIKELY FAVORING A BIT
MORE HIGH TERRAIN AREAS THAN THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS.

INTO THE EXTENDED FORECAST A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAKING
LANDFALL IN CALIFORNIA WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE NM WEATHER WITH A
SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT THAT WILL PARTIALLY ACT TO
SQUEEZE AND STEER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO NM...PRIMARILY THE
CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES. THIS WILL KEEP THE ACTIVE STORM PATTERN
OVER NM THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...BUT THERE IS POTENTIAL
FOR HIGH PRESSURE TO BECOME RE-ESTABLISHED OVER THE STATE BY NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH COULD INTRODUCE SUBSIDENCE AND DRYING.

52

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER HIGH CENTER HAS SHIFTED TO VCNTY CENTRAL OR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE WITH
DISTURBANCE INDICATED BY MODELS TO MOVE OVER ERN AZ/WRN NM AND
INTO NRN NM THRU 05/21Z. SFC LEE TROUGH CONTINUING...AND LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO DEVELOP AFT
10Z ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AFFECTING THE
KLVS TAF...AND ISOLD MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WEST CENTRAL NM AS WELL.
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS TO IGNITE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY
05/18Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  87  63  87  62 /  20  20  30  20
DULCE...........................  83  54  83  53 /  40  30  30  50
CUBA............................  81  55  81  53 /  50  60  50  70
GALLUP..........................  82  56  82  54 /  40  30  30  20
EL MORRO........................  79  54  81  52 /  60  50  40  60
GRANTS..........................  83  57  84  54 /  50  30  40  50
QUEMADO.........................  79  58  82  57 /  50  30  30  30
GLENWOOD........................  84  57  86  55 /  40  40  30  20
CHAMA...........................  79  52  77  51 /  60  30  60  70
LOS ALAMOS......................  81  59  79  57 /  70  70  70  70
PECOS...........................  81  57  77  55 /  40  40  70  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  78  54  75  52 /  40  50  70  60
RED RIVER.......................  69  47  65  47 /  60  50  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  70  52  66  51 /  50  40  70  70
TAOS............................  82  54  78  52 /  30  30  40  50
MORA............................  78  54  71  51 /  60  50  70  70
ESPANOLA........................  85  59  83  56 /  30  50  30  60
SANTA FE........................  83  61  79  58 /  30  50  50  70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  85  60  81  57 /  30  40  30  60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  87  66  86  64 /  30  60  30  60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  88  67  87  65 /  30  50  30  50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  90  65  90  63 /  30  50  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  89  67  89  65 /  30  50  30  50
LOS LUNAS.......................  90  65  90  63 /  30  50  30  40
RIO RANCHO......................  89  66  88  64 /  30  50  30  50
SOCORRO.........................  90  66  92  65 /  30  40  20  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  84  59  82  56 /  40  70  40  70
TIJERAS.........................  85  58  83  55 /  40  60  40  70
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  85  56  83  53 /  30  50  30  60
CLINES CORNERS..................  82  58  80  54 /  30  30  40  70
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  84  60  82  57 /  30  30  30  70
CARRIZOZO.......................  87  63  88  62 /  30  40  20  60
RUIDOSO.........................  78  58  78  55 /  60  40  50  70
CAPULIN.........................  83  60  73  53 /  30  40  70  60
RATON...........................  84  59  75  54 /  30  30  70  60
SPRINGER........................  85  60  77  55 /  30  30  70  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  82  57  75  52 /  30  30  70  60
CLAYTON.........................  93  65  79  57 /  10  20  60  50
ROY.............................  88  62  79  57 /  10  30  70  60
CONCHAS.........................  94  68  86  62 /  10  20  70  60
SANTA ROSA......................  92  66  88  61 /  10  30  50  60
TUCUMCARI.......................  97  69  89  62 /   5  20  50  60
CLOVIS..........................  90  67  88  62 /   5  10  40  60
PORTALES........................  91  68  90  64 /   5  10  30  70
FORT SUMNER.....................  92  68  90  64 /   5  20  30  60
ROSWELL.........................  96  70  94  68 /   5  20  30  50
PICACHO.........................  88  63  88  63 /  20  30  50  50
ELK.............................  84  61  84  62 /  50  50  50  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11




000
FXUS65 KABQ 050529
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1129 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER HIGH CENTER HAS SHIFTED TO VCNTY CENTRAL OR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE WITH
DISTURBANCE INDICATED BY MODELS TO MOVE OVER ERN AZ/WRN NM AND
INTO NRN NM THRU 05/21Z. SFC LEE TROUGH CONTINUING...AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO DEVELOP
AFT 10Z ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AFFECTING
THE KLVS TAF...AND ISOLD MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WEST CENTRAL NM AS
WELL. ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS TO IGNITE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
BY 05/18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW
MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS
SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST OVER
NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER. BY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER
HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS AND DELIVER A MORE
TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW PATTERN OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING. A
SLIGHT DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND ABUNDANT SOLAR INSOLATION TODAY HAS LED
TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TRSRA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OUTFLOWS ARE
WORKING EFFICIENTLY TODAY TO KEEP STORMS DISPLACING EACH OTHER AND
LIMITING THREAT FOR ANY ONE MORE GETTING HAMMERED BY TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL. THAT IS HELPING TO ALLEVIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SO
FAR. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER
THE AREA FROM CATRON COUNTY TO GRANTS...ABQ/SAF AND THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUNDAY STILL REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY AT
ODDS WITH COVERAGE AREAS...SO STUCK WITH A GENERAL CLIMO POP AND
NUDGED TO CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. THE NEXT BIG ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
HEAVIER PRECIP STILL APPEARS ON THE TARGET FOR MONDAY FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES ACROSS THE PLAINS. A POTENT MOIST LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST OVER THE AREA AND THROUGH GAPS
INTO THE CENTRAL MTS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID A BIG UPTICK FOR
TUESDAY WITHIN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. AGAIN...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING EXISTS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN
SCAR AREAS...URBAN DRAINAGES...AND LOCALES THAT HAVE RECENTLY SEEN
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

A SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN COVERAGE MAY BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO AND BATTLES AN DEEPENING TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. A 70-90KT 300MB JET AXIS WILL WORK INTO THE
GREAT BASIN WITH AN ASSOCIATED DRY INTRUSION. THIS WOULD FOCUS
CONVECTIVE MORE INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND NEARBY EAST SLOPES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH INCREASING MAX TEMPS.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FROM IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON WEST...THOUGH
ACROSS THE NW PLATEAU AREA NOT MUCH YET. MAJORITY OF STORMS LIKELY
PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINS. UPPER HIGH STILL LOOKS PRETTY
LIKELY TO RECENTER ITSELF JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SE OF THE FCST AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE IF NOT INCREASE A BIT MOST AREAS AS A RESULT.
VENT RATES WILL LIKELY INCREASE AT LEAST A LITTLE ON SUNDAY AS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP AND A  LOW LEVEL LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO INCREASING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NE HALF OF THE STATE.

TIMING OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL SIMILAR AS PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED...MOVING DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...THEN THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING IN A
FRESH LOW LEVEL INFLUX OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND KEEP MOISTURE
CONTENT THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EAST MON AND MON NIGHT
WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...THEN WEST AND CENTRAL
TUE. TEMPERATURES AND VENT RATES TREND DOWN TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST...BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK STILL INDICATED A GENERALLY
WEAK WEST TO SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA WITH THE UPPER HIGH SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE STATE FOR
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS... FAVORING CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 050529
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1129 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER HIGH CENTER HAS SHIFTED TO VCNTY CENTRAL OR SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE WITH
DISTURBANCE INDICATED BY MODELS TO MOVE OVER ERN AZ/WRN NM AND
INTO NRN NM THRU 05/21Z. SFC LEE TROUGH CONTINUING...AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO DEVELOP
AFT 10Z ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AFFECTING
THE KLVS TAF...AND ISOLD MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE WEST CENTRAL NM AS
WELL. ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS TO IGNITE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
BY 05/18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW
MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS
SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST OVER
NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER. BY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER
HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS AND DELIVER A MORE
TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW PATTERN OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING. A
SLIGHT DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND ABUNDANT SOLAR INSOLATION TODAY HAS LED
TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TRSRA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OUTFLOWS ARE
WORKING EFFICIENTLY TODAY TO KEEP STORMS DISPLACING EACH OTHER AND
LIMITING THREAT FOR ANY ONE MORE GETTING HAMMERED BY TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL. THAT IS HELPING TO ALLEVIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SO
FAR. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER
THE AREA FROM CATRON COUNTY TO GRANTS...ABQ/SAF AND THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUNDAY STILL REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY AT
ODDS WITH COVERAGE AREAS...SO STUCK WITH A GENERAL CLIMO POP AND
NUDGED TO CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. THE NEXT BIG ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
HEAVIER PRECIP STILL APPEARS ON THE TARGET FOR MONDAY FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES ACROSS THE PLAINS. A POTENT MOIST LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST OVER THE AREA AND THROUGH GAPS
INTO THE CENTRAL MTS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID A BIG UPTICK FOR
TUESDAY WITHIN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. AGAIN...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING EXISTS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN
SCAR AREAS...URBAN DRAINAGES...AND LOCALES THAT HAVE RECENTLY SEEN
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

A SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN COVERAGE MAY BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO AND BATTLES AN DEEPENING TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. A 70-90KT 300MB JET AXIS WILL WORK INTO THE
GREAT BASIN WITH AN ASSOCIATED DRY INTRUSION. THIS WOULD FOCUS
CONVECTIVE MORE INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND NEARBY EAST SLOPES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH INCREASING MAX TEMPS.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FROM IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON WEST...THOUGH
ACROSS THE NW PLATEAU AREA NOT MUCH YET. MAJORITY OF STORMS LIKELY
PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINS. UPPER HIGH STILL LOOKS PRETTY
LIKELY TO RECENTER ITSELF JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SE OF THE FCST AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE IF NOT INCREASE A BIT MOST AREAS AS A RESULT.
VENT RATES WILL LIKELY INCREASE AT LEAST A LITTLE ON SUNDAY AS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP AND A  LOW LEVEL LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO INCREASING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NE HALF OF THE STATE.

TIMING OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL SIMILAR AS PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED...MOVING DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...THEN THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING IN A
FRESH LOW LEVEL INFLUX OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND KEEP MOISTURE
CONTENT THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EAST MON AND MON NIGHT
WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...THEN WEST AND CENTRAL
TUE. TEMPERATURES AND VENT RATES TREND DOWN TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST...BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK STILL INDICATED A GENERALLY
WEAK WEST TO SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA WITH THE UPPER HIGH SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE STATE FOR
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS... FAVORING CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 042345
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
545 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER HIGH CENTER HAS SHIFTED WITH RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY STRETCHED FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER
THE RIDGE ALTHOUGH INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF TSTMS SHOULD
DIMINISH BY 03Z WITH SCT SHRA PERSISTING WITH OCCASIONAL MT
OBSCURATIONS. SFC LEE TROUGH CONTINUING...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO DEVELOP AFT 10Z ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AFFECTING THE KLVS TAF.
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS TO IGNITE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFT
05/18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW
MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS
SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST OVER
NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER. BY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER
HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS AND DELIVER A MORE
TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW PATTERN OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING. A
SLIGHT DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND ABUNDANT SOLAR INSOLATION TODAY HAS LED
TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TRSRA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OUTFLOWS ARE
WORKING EFFICIENTLY TODAY TO KEEP STORMS DISPLACING EACH OTHER AND
LIMITING THREAT FOR ANY ONE MORE GETTING HAMMERED BY TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL. THAT IS HELPING TO ALLEVIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SO
FAR. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER
THE AREA FROM CATRON COUNTY TO GRANTS...ABQ/SAF AND THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUNDAY STILL REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY AT
ODDS WITH COVERAGE AREAS...SO STUCK WITH A GENERAL CLIMO POP AND
NUDGED TO CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. THE NEXT BIG ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
HEAVIER PRECIP STILL APPEARS ON THE TARGET FOR MONDAY FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES ACROSS THE PLAINS. A POTENT MOIST LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST OVER THE AREA AND THROUGH GAPS
INTO THE CENTRAL MTS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID A BIG UPTICK FOR
TUESDAY WITHIN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. AGAIN...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING EXISTS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN
SCAR AREAS...URBAN DRAINAGES...AND LOCALES THAT HAVE RECENTLY SEEN
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

A SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN COVERAGE MAY BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO AND BATTLES AN DEEPENING TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. A 70-90KT 300MB JET AXIS WILL WORK INTO THE
GREAT BASIN WITH AN ASSOCIATED DRY INTRUSION. THIS WOULD FOCUS
CONVECTIVE MORE INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND NEARBY EAST SLOPES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH INCREASING MAX TEMPS.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HEALTHY CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SO FAR THIS AFTN
FROM IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON WEST...THOUGH
ACROSS THE NW PLATEAU AREA NOT MUCH YET. MAJORITY OF STORMS LIKELY
PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINS. UPPER HIGH STILL LOOKS PRETTY
LIKELY TO RECENTER ITSELF JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SE OF THE FCST AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE IF NOT INCREASE A BIT MOST AREAS AS A RESULT.
VENT RATES WILL LIKELY INCREASE AT LEAST A LITTLE ON SUNDAY AS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP AND A  LOW LEVEL LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO INCREASING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NE HALF OF THE STATE.

TIMING OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL SIMILAR AS PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED...MOVING DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...THEN THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING IN A
FRESH LOW LEVEL INFLUX OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND KEEP MOISTURE
CONTENT THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EAST MON AND MON NIGHT
WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...THEN WEST AND CENTRAL
TUE. TEMPERATURES AND VENT RATES TREND DOWN TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST...BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK STILL INDICATED A GENERALLY
WEAK WEST TO SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA WITH THE UPPER HIGH SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE STATE FOR
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS... FAVORING CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 042345
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
545 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER HIGH CENTER HAS SHIFTED WITH RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY STRETCHED FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER
THE RIDGE ALTHOUGH INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF TSTMS SHOULD
DIMINISH BY 03Z WITH SCT SHRA PERSISTING WITH OCCASIONAL MT
OBSCURATIONS. SFC LEE TROUGH CONTINUING...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO DEVELOP AFT 10Z ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AFFECTING THE KLVS TAF.
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS TO IGNITE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFT
05/18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW
MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS
SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST OVER
NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER. BY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER
HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS AND DELIVER A MORE
TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW PATTERN OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING. A
SLIGHT DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND ABUNDANT SOLAR INSOLATION TODAY HAS LED
TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TRSRA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OUTFLOWS ARE
WORKING EFFICIENTLY TODAY TO KEEP STORMS DISPLACING EACH OTHER AND
LIMITING THREAT FOR ANY ONE MORE GETTING HAMMERED BY TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL. THAT IS HELPING TO ALLEVIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SO
FAR. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER
THE AREA FROM CATRON COUNTY TO GRANTS...ABQ/SAF AND THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUNDAY STILL REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY AT
ODDS WITH COVERAGE AREAS...SO STUCK WITH A GENERAL CLIMO POP AND
NUDGED TO CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. THE NEXT BIG ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
HEAVIER PRECIP STILL APPEARS ON THE TARGET FOR MONDAY FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES ACROSS THE PLAINS. A POTENT MOIST LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST OVER THE AREA AND THROUGH GAPS
INTO THE CENTRAL MTS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID A BIG UPTICK FOR
TUESDAY WITHIN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. AGAIN...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING EXISTS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN
SCAR AREAS...URBAN DRAINAGES...AND LOCALES THAT HAVE RECENTLY SEEN
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

A SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN COVERAGE MAY BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO AND BATTLES AN DEEPENING TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. A 70-90KT 300MB JET AXIS WILL WORK INTO THE
GREAT BASIN WITH AN ASSOCIATED DRY INTRUSION. THIS WOULD FOCUS
CONVECTIVE MORE INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND NEARBY EAST SLOPES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH INCREASING MAX TEMPS.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HEALTHY CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SO FAR THIS AFTN
FROM IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON WEST...THOUGH
ACROSS THE NW PLATEAU AREA NOT MUCH YET. MAJORITY OF STORMS LIKELY
PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINS. UPPER HIGH STILL LOOKS PRETTY
LIKELY TO RECENTER ITSELF JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SE OF THE FCST AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE IF NOT INCREASE A BIT MOST AREAS AS A RESULT.
VENT RATES WILL LIKELY INCREASE AT LEAST A LITTLE ON SUNDAY AS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP AND A  LOW LEVEL LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO INCREASING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NE HALF OF THE STATE.

TIMING OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL SIMILAR AS PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED...MOVING DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...THEN THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING IN A
FRESH LOW LEVEL INFLUX OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND KEEP MOISTURE
CONTENT THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EAST MON AND MON NIGHT
WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...THEN WEST AND CENTRAL
TUE. TEMPERATURES AND VENT RATES TREND DOWN TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST...BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK STILL INDICATED A GENERALLY
WEAK WEST TO SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA WITH THE UPPER HIGH SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE STATE FOR
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS... FAVORING CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 042345
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
545 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER HIGH CENTER HAS SHIFTED WITH RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY STRETCHED FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER
THE RIDGE ALTHOUGH INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF TSTMS SHOULD
DIMINISH BY 03Z WITH SCT SHRA PERSISTING WITH OCCASIONAL MT
OBSCURATIONS. SFC LEE TROUGH CONTINUING...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO DEVELOP AFT 10Z ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AFFECTING THE KLVS TAF.
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS TO IGNITE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFT
05/18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW
MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS
SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST OVER
NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER. BY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER
HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS AND DELIVER A MORE
TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW PATTERN OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING. A
SLIGHT DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND ABUNDANT SOLAR INSOLATION TODAY HAS LED
TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TRSRA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OUTFLOWS ARE
WORKING EFFICIENTLY TODAY TO KEEP STORMS DISPLACING EACH OTHER AND
LIMITING THREAT FOR ANY ONE MORE GETTING HAMMERED BY TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL. THAT IS HELPING TO ALLEVIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SO
FAR. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER
THE AREA FROM CATRON COUNTY TO GRANTS...ABQ/SAF AND THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUNDAY STILL REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY AT
ODDS WITH COVERAGE AREAS...SO STUCK WITH A GENERAL CLIMO POP AND
NUDGED TO CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. THE NEXT BIG ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
HEAVIER PRECIP STILL APPEARS ON THE TARGET FOR MONDAY FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES ACROSS THE PLAINS. A POTENT MOIST LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST OVER THE AREA AND THROUGH GAPS
INTO THE CENTRAL MTS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID A BIG UPTICK FOR
TUESDAY WITHIN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. AGAIN...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING EXISTS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN
SCAR AREAS...URBAN DRAINAGES...AND LOCALES THAT HAVE RECENTLY SEEN
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

A SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN COVERAGE MAY BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO AND BATTLES AN DEEPENING TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. A 70-90KT 300MB JET AXIS WILL WORK INTO THE
GREAT BASIN WITH AN ASSOCIATED DRY INTRUSION. THIS WOULD FOCUS
CONVECTIVE MORE INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND NEARBY EAST SLOPES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH INCREASING MAX TEMPS.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HEALTHY CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SO FAR THIS AFTN
FROM IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON WEST...THOUGH
ACROSS THE NW PLATEAU AREA NOT MUCH YET. MAJORITY OF STORMS LIKELY
PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINS. UPPER HIGH STILL LOOKS PRETTY
LIKELY TO RECENTER ITSELF JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SE OF THE FCST AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE IF NOT INCREASE A BIT MOST AREAS AS A RESULT.
VENT RATES WILL LIKELY INCREASE AT LEAST A LITTLE ON SUNDAY AS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP AND A  LOW LEVEL LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO INCREASING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NE HALF OF THE STATE.

TIMING OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL SIMILAR AS PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED...MOVING DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...THEN THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING IN A
FRESH LOW LEVEL INFLUX OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND KEEP MOISTURE
CONTENT THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EAST MON AND MON NIGHT
WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...THEN WEST AND CENTRAL
TUE. TEMPERATURES AND VENT RATES TREND DOWN TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST...BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK STILL INDICATED A GENERALLY
WEAK WEST TO SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA WITH THE UPPER HIGH SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE STATE FOR
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS... FAVORING CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 042345
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
545 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER HIGH CENTER HAS SHIFTED WITH RIDGE AXIS GENERALLY STRETCHED FROM
NORTH TO SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO. PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER
THE RIDGE ALTHOUGH INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE OF TSTMS SHOULD
DIMINISH BY 03Z WITH SCT SHRA PERSISTING WITH OCCASIONAL MT
OBSCURATIONS. SFC LEE TROUGH CONTINUING...AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
MAY ALLOW FOR MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO DEVELOP AFT 10Z ALONG
THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AFFECTING THE KLVS TAF.
ANOTHER ROUND OF TSTMS TO IGNITE OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AFT
05/18Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW
MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS
SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST OVER
NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER. BY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER
HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS AND DELIVER A MORE
TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW PATTERN OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING. A
SLIGHT DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND ABUNDANT SOLAR INSOLATION TODAY HAS LED
TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TRSRA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OUTFLOWS ARE
WORKING EFFICIENTLY TODAY TO KEEP STORMS DISPLACING EACH OTHER AND
LIMITING THREAT FOR ANY ONE MORE GETTING HAMMERED BY TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL. THAT IS HELPING TO ALLEVIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SO
FAR. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER
THE AREA FROM CATRON COUNTY TO GRANTS...ABQ/SAF AND THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUNDAY STILL REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY AT
ODDS WITH COVERAGE AREAS...SO STUCK WITH A GENERAL CLIMO POP AND
NUDGED TO CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. THE NEXT BIG ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
HEAVIER PRECIP STILL APPEARS ON THE TARGET FOR MONDAY FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES ACROSS THE PLAINS. A POTENT MOIST LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST OVER THE AREA AND THROUGH GAPS
INTO THE CENTRAL MTS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID A BIG UPTICK FOR
TUESDAY WITHIN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. AGAIN...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING EXISTS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN
SCAR AREAS...URBAN DRAINAGES...AND LOCALES THAT HAVE RECENTLY SEEN
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

A SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN COVERAGE MAY BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO AND BATTLES AN DEEPENING TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. A 70-90KT 300MB JET AXIS WILL WORK INTO THE
GREAT BASIN WITH AN ASSOCIATED DRY INTRUSION. THIS WOULD FOCUS
CONVECTIVE MORE INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND NEARBY EAST SLOPES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH INCREASING MAX TEMPS.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HEALTHY CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SO FAR THIS AFTN
FROM IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON WEST...THOUGH
ACROSS THE NW PLATEAU AREA NOT MUCH YET. MAJORITY OF STORMS LIKELY
PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINS. UPPER HIGH STILL LOOKS PRETTY
LIKELY TO RECENTER ITSELF JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SE OF THE FCST AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE IF NOT INCREASE A BIT MOST AREAS AS A RESULT.
VENT RATES WILL LIKELY INCREASE AT LEAST A LITTLE ON SUNDAY AS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP AND A  LOW LEVEL LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO INCREASING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NE HALF OF THE STATE.

TIMING OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL SIMILAR AS PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED...MOVING DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...THEN THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING IN A
FRESH LOW LEVEL INFLUX OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND KEEP MOISTURE
CONTENT THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EAST MON AND MON NIGHT
WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...THEN WEST AND CENTRAL
TUE. TEMPERATURES AND VENT RATES TREND DOWN TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST...BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK STILL INDICATED A GENERALLY
WEAK WEST TO SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA WITH THE UPPER HIGH SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE STATE FOR
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS... FAVORING CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 042141 CCA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
313 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CORRECTION TO ADD UPDATED FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

.SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW
MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS
SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST OVER
NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER. BY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER
HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS AND DELIVER A MORE
TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW PATTERN OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING. A
SLIGHT DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND ABUNDANT SOLAR INSOLATION TODAY HAS LED
TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TRSRA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OUTFLOWS ARE
WORKING EFFICIENTLY TODAY TO KEEP STORMS DISPLACING EACH OTHER AND
LIMITING THREAT FOR ANY ONE MORE GETTING HAMMERED BY TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL. THAT IS HELPING TO ALLEVIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SO
FAR. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER
THE AREA FROM CATRON COUNTY TO GRANTS...ABQ/SAF AND THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUNDAY STILL REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY AT
ODDS WITH COVERAGE AREAS...SO STUCK WITH A GENERAL CLIMO POP AND
NUDGED TO CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. THE NEXT BIG ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
HEAVIER PRECIP STILL APPEARS ON THE TARGET FOR MONDAY FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES ACROSS THE PLAINS. A POTENT MOIST LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST OVER THE AREA AND THROUGH GAPS
INTO THE CENTRAL MTS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID A BIG UPTICK FOR
TUESDAY WITHIN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. AGAIN...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING EXISTS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN
SCAR AREAS...URBAN DRAINAGES...AND LOCALES THAT HAVE RECENTLY SEEN
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

A SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN COVERAGE MAY BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO AND BATTLES AN DEEPENING TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. A 70-90KT 300MB JET AXIS WILL WORK INTO THE
GREAT BASIN WITH AN ASSOCIATED DRY INTRUSION. THIS WOULD FOCUS
CONVECTIVE MORE INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND NEARBY EAST SLOPES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH INCREASING MAX TEMPS.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HEALTHY CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SO FAR THIS AFTN
FROM IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON WEST...THOUGH
ACROSS THE NW PLATEAU AREA NOT MUCH YET. MAJORITY OF STORMS LIKELY
PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINS. UPPER HIGH STILL LOOKS PRETTY
LIKELY TO RECENTER ITSELF JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SE OF THE FCST AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE IF NOT INCREASE A BIT MOST AREAS AS A RESULT.
VENT RATES WILL LIKELY INCREASE AT LEAST A LITTLE ON SUNDAY AS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP AND A  LOW LEVEL LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO INCREASING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NE HALF OF THE STATE.

TIMING OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL SIMILAR AS PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED...MOVING DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...THEN THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING IN A
FRESH LOW LEVEL INFLUX OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND KEEP MOISTURE
CONTENT THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EAST MON AND MON NIGHT
WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...THEN WEST AND CENTRAL
TUE. TEMPERATURES AND VENT RATES TREND DOWN TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST...BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK STILL INDICATED A GENERALLY
WEAK WEST TO SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA WITH THE UPPER HIGH SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE STATE FOR
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS... FAVORING CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

43

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GILA
REGION...WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. AFTER 19 OR
20Z EXPECT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TSRA IMPACTS...MAINLY STRONG
GUSTS...VERY HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING STRIKES AND IN A FEW CASES SMALL
HAIL...IN THE VICINITY OF TAF SITES GUP...SAF...LVS...ABQ AND AEG
AND AFTER APPROX 22Z VICINITY OF FMN. GENERALLY TSRA DEVELOPMENT
FIRST MAINLY NEAR MOUNTAINS THEN MOVING OFF TOWARD ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS/VALLEYS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER TSRA MOTION
LIKELY TO BE VERY SLOW AND RATHER ERRATIC IN DIRECTION. EXPECT
MVFR IMPACTS AND MT OBSCURATIONS WITH STORMS...ALTHOUGH EVEN
SHORT LIVED IFR CONDITIONS POSS WITH THE STRONGEST TSRA. AT LEAST
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND FOG REDUCED VSBY ACROSS THE
NW THIRD TO HALF OF THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z SUN. OUTSIDE
OF STORMS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED EARLY MORNING LOW CIGS AND FOG
POTENTIAL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  66  86  64  84 /  40  20  30  30
DULCE...........................  55  79  54  79 /  60  50  40  40
CUBA............................  56  79  55  78 /  60  60  50  50
GALLUP..........................  59  81  57  80 /  50  30  30  40
EL MORRO........................  56  80  55  80 /  70  50  40  40
GRANTS..........................  59  84  58  84 /  50  50  30  40
QUEMADO.........................  58  79  57  81 /  60  50  20  50
GLENWOOD........................  60  81  58  85 /  50  40  30  30
CHAMA...........................  52  72  51  71 /  60  60  50  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  61  80  60  79 /  60  50  60  60
PECOS...........................  58  80  58  78 /  60  50  50  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  54  74  53  70 /  60  40  60  70
RED RIVER.......................  49  65  49  61 /  70  40  60  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  51  69  51  64 /  70  60  70  70
TAOS............................  56  80  54  77 /  40  40  50  60
MORA............................  55  76  55  72 /  60  60  50  60
ESPANOLA........................  61  86  59  86 /  40  30  40  40
SANTA FE........................  61  79  60  79 /  50  40  40  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  61  84  60  83 /  40  30  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  66  87  65  88 /  50  40  50  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  68  89  66  90 /  30  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  67  91  66  93 /  30  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  68  92  66  95 /  40  30  40  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  67  90  66  93 /  30  20  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  67  91  65  92 /  50  30  40  30
SOCORRO.........................  67  92  66  95 /  30  30  30  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  60  83  60  85 /  50  60  50  30
TIJERAS.........................  61  86  61  88 /  50  50  50  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  86  57  86 /  40  40  40  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  59  82  59  82 /  50  50  40  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  61  83  60  86 /  30  30  40  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  87  63  88 /  30  20  30  30
RUIDOSO.........................  59  79  60  79 /  30  50  30  40
CAPULIN.........................  59  81  60  73 /  20  20  30  70
RATON...........................  58  84  58  77 /  20  10  30  60
SPRINGER........................  60  86  61  81 /  20  20  30  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  57  80  57  76 /  30  50  30  60
CLAYTON.........................  65  91  64  84 /  10   5  20  70
ROY.............................  63  85  62  82 /  10   5  30  60
CONCHAS.........................  68  95  68  91 /  10   5  20  60
SANTA ROSA......................  67  92  67  91 /  10   5  30  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  69  95  69  92 /  10   5  20  40
CLOVIS..........................  66  91  67  89 /   5   5  20  30
PORTALES........................  67  92  68  90 /   5   5  20  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  68  92  68  92 /   5   5  20  30
ROSWELL.........................  68  94  69  98 /   5   5  20  20
PICACHO.........................  63  89  64  91 /  10  20  30  30
ELK.............................  61  81  62  82 /  10  30  30  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

42



000
FXUS65 KABQ 042141 CCA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
313 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

CORRECTION TO ADD UPDATED FIRE WEATHER DISCUSSION.

.SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW
MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS
SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST OVER
NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER. BY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER
HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS AND DELIVER A MORE
TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW PATTERN OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING. A
SLIGHT DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND ABUNDANT SOLAR INSOLATION TODAY HAS LED
TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TRSRA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OUTFLOWS ARE
WORKING EFFICIENTLY TODAY TO KEEP STORMS DISPLACING EACH OTHER AND
LIMITING THREAT FOR ANY ONE MORE GETTING HAMMERED BY TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL. THAT IS HELPING TO ALLEVIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SO
FAR. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER
THE AREA FROM CATRON COUNTY TO GRANTS...ABQ/SAF AND THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUNDAY STILL REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY AT
ODDS WITH COVERAGE AREAS...SO STUCK WITH A GENERAL CLIMO POP AND
NUDGED TO CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. THE NEXT BIG ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
HEAVIER PRECIP STILL APPEARS ON THE TARGET FOR MONDAY FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES ACROSS THE PLAINS. A POTENT MOIST LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST OVER THE AREA AND THROUGH GAPS
INTO THE CENTRAL MTS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID A BIG UPTICK FOR
TUESDAY WITHIN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. AGAIN...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING EXISTS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN
SCAR AREAS...URBAN DRAINAGES...AND LOCALES THAT HAVE RECENTLY SEEN
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

A SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN COVERAGE MAY BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO AND BATTLES AN DEEPENING TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. A 70-90KT 300MB JET AXIS WILL WORK INTO THE
GREAT BASIN WITH AN ASSOCIATED DRY INTRUSION. THIS WOULD FOCUS
CONVECTIVE MORE INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND NEARBY EAST SLOPES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH INCREASING MAX TEMPS.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HEALTHY CROP OF SHOWERS AND STORMS SO FAR THIS AFTN
FROM IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN ON WEST...THOUGH
ACROSS THE NW PLATEAU AREA NOT MUCH YET. MAJORITY OF STORMS LIKELY
PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINS. UPPER HIGH STILL LOOKS PRETTY
LIKELY TO RECENTER ITSELF JUST TO THE SOUTH AND SE OF THE FCST AREA
LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. WITH A WEAK MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVING OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE IF NOT INCREASE A BIT MOST AREAS AS A RESULT.
VENT RATES WILL LIKELY INCREASE AT LEAST A LITTLE ON SUNDAY AS
SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP AND A  LOW LEVEL LEE SIDE TROUGH
DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO INCREASING THE SURFACE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NE HALF OF THE STATE.

TIMING OF THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL SIMILAR AS PREVIOUSLY
INDICATED...MOVING DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS ON MONDAY...THEN THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD BRING IN A
FRESH LOW LEVEL INFLUX OF MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND KEEP MOISTURE
CONTENT THROUGH THE TROPOSPHERE ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA. THIS WILL ALSO LIKELY RESULT IN ANOTHER INCREASE IN
SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE FOR MUCH OF THE EAST MON AND MON NIGHT
WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE...THEN WEST AND CENTRAL
TUE. TEMPERATURES AND VENT RATES TREND DOWN TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
EAST...BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK STILL INDICATED A GENERALLY
WEAK WEST TO SW FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA WITH THE UPPER HIGH SOUTH
OF THE AREA AND PLENTY OF MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE STATE FOR
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS... FAVORING CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

43

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GILA
REGION...WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. AFTER 19 OR
20Z EXPECT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TSRA IMPACTS...MAINLY STRONG
GUSTS...VERY HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING STRIKES AND IN A FEW CASES SMALL
HAIL...IN THE VICINITY OF TAF SITES GUP...SAF...LVS...ABQ AND AEG
AND AFTER APPROX 22Z VICINITY OF FMN. GENERALLY TSRA DEVELOPMENT
FIRST MAINLY NEAR MOUNTAINS THEN MOVING OFF TOWARD ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS/VALLEYS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER TSRA MOTION
LIKELY TO BE VERY SLOW AND RATHER ERRATIC IN DIRECTION. EXPECT
MVFR IMPACTS AND MT OBSCURATIONS WITH STORMS...ALTHOUGH EVEN
SHORT LIVED IFR CONDITIONS POSS WITH THE STRONGEST TSRA. AT LEAST
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND FOG REDUCED VSBY ACROSS THE
NW THIRD TO HALF OF THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z SUN. OUTSIDE
OF STORMS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED EARLY MORNING LOW CIGS AND FOG
POTENTIAL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  66  86  64  84 /  40  20  30  30
DULCE...........................  55  79  54  79 /  60  50  40  40
CUBA............................  56  79  55  78 /  60  60  50  50
GALLUP..........................  59  81  57  80 /  50  30  30  40
EL MORRO........................  56  80  55  80 /  70  50  40  40
GRANTS..........................  59  84  58  84 /  50  50  30  40
QUEMADO.........................  58  79  57  81 /  60  50  20  50
GLENWOOD........................  60  81  58  85 /  50  40  30  30
CHAMA...........................  52  72  51  71 /  60  60  50  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  61  80  60  79 /  60  50  60  60
PECOS...........................  58  80  58  78 /  60  50  50  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  54  74  53  70 /  60  40  60  70
RED RIVER.......................  49  65  49  61 /  70  40  60  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  51  69  51  64 /  70  60  70  70
TAOS............................  56  80  54  77 /  40  40  50  60
MORA............................  55  76  55  72 /  60  60  50  60
ESPANOLA........................  61  86  59  86 /  40  30  40  40
SANTA FE........................  61  79  60  79 /  50  40  40  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  61  84  60  83 /  40  30  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  66  87  65  88 /  50  40  50  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  68  89  66  90 /  30  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  67  91  66  93 /  30  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  68  92  66  95 /  40  30  40  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  67  90  66  93 /  30  20  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  67  91  65  92 /  50  30  40  30
SOCORRO.........................  67  92  66  95 /  30  30  30  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  60  83  60  85 /  50  60  50  30
TIJERAS.........................  61  86  61  88 /  50  50  50  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  86  57  86 /  40  40  40  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  59  82  59  82 /  50  50  40  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  61  83  60  86 /  30  30  40  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  87  63  88 /  30  20  30  30
RUIDOSO.........................  59  79  60  79 /  30  50  30  40
CAPULIN.........................  59  81  60  73 /  20  20  30  70
RATON...........................  58  84  58  77 /  20  10  30  60
SPRINGER........................  60  86  61  81 /  20  20  30  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  57  80  57  76 /  30  50  30  60
CLAYTON.........................  65  91  64  84 /  10   5  20  70
ROY.............................  63  85  62  82 /  10   5  30  60
CONCHAS.........................  68  95  68  91 /  10   5  20  60
SANTA ROSA......................  67  92  67  91 /  10   5  30  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  69  95  69  92 /  10   5  20  40
CLOVIS..........................  66  91  67  89 /   5   5  20  30
PORTALES........................  67  92  68  90 /   5   5  20  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  68  92  68  92 /   5   5  20  30
ROSWELL.........................  68  94  69  98 /   5   5  20  20
PICACHO.........................  63  89  64  91 /  10  20  30  30
ELK.............................  61  81  62  82 /  10  30  30  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

42




000
FXUS65 KABQ 042113
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
313 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW
MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND PERHAPS
SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST OVER
NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL BECOME
NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER. BY NEXT WEEK...THE UPPER
HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS AND DELIVER A MORE
TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW PATTERN OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUING. A
SLIGHT DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS.
HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AND ABUNDANT SOLAR INSOLATION TODAY HAS LED
TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TRSRA WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. OUTFLOWS ARE
WORKING EFFICIENTLY TODAY TO KEEP STORMS DISPLACING EACH OTHER AND
LIMITING THREAT FOR ANY ONE MORE GETTING HAMMERED BY TORRENTIAL
RAINFALL. THAT IS HELPING TO ALLEVIATE THE FLASH FLOOD THREAT SO
FAR. SHORT-TERM GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO FOCUS HEAVIEST PRECIP OVER
THE AREA FROM CATRON COUNTY TO GRANTS...ABQ/SAF AND THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS THROUGH THIS EVENING.

SUNDAY STILL REMAINS A CHALLENGE AS MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY AT
ODDS WITH COVERAGE AREAS...SO STUCK WITH A GENERAL CLIMO POP AND
NUDGED TO CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE. THE NEXT BIG ROUND OF WIDESPREAD
HEAVIER PRECIP STILL APPEARS ON THE TARGET FOR MONDAY FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES ACROSS THE PLAINS. A POTENT MOIST LOW
LEVEL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST OVER THE AREA AND THROUGH GAPS
INTO THE CENTRAL MTS MONDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL AID A BIG UPTICK FOR
TUESDAY WITHIN CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. AGAIN...THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLASH FLOODING EXISTS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE...ESPECIALLY OVER BURN
SCAR AREAS...URBAN DRAINAGES...AND LOCALES THAT HAVE RECENTLY SEEN
VERY HEAVY RAINFALL.

A SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN COVERAGE MAY BEGIN WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDS SOUTH OF NEW MEXICO AND BATTLES AN DEEPENING TROUGH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. A 70-90KT 300MB JET AXIS WILL WORK INTO THE
GREAT BASIN WITH AN ASSOCIATED DRY INTRUSION. THIS WOULD FOCUS
CONVECTIVE MORE INTO THE HIGH TERRAIN AND NEARBY EAST SLOPES BY
THE END OF THE WEEK...ALONG WITH INCREASING MAX TEMPS.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOOK FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS...SLOW TO NEAR-
STATIONARY STORM MOTION AND SOAKING RAINS FAVORING THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND VENT RATES SHOULD BE IMPROVED MOST AREAS.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL RECENTER SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE MOST AREAS AS A RESULT.
VENT RATES WILL LIKELY INCREASE MORE ON SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY
STRONGER WINDS DEVELOP AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER
SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY...THEN THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...RECHARGING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOWING PWATS TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN STORMS MON/TUE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS WHERE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES AND VENT RATES TREND DOWN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST...BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK IS FOR WEAK WESTERLIES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH THE UPPER HIGH SOUTH OF THE AREA AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE STATE FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

43

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GILA
REGION...WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. AFTER 19 OR
20Z EXPECT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TSRA IMPACTS...MAINLY STRONG
GUSTS...VERY HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING STRIKES AND IN A FEW CASES SMALL
HAIL...IN THE VICINITY OF TAF SITES GUP...SAF...LVS...ABQ AND AEG
AND AFTER APPROX 22Z VICINITY OF FMN. GENERALLY TSRA DEVELOPMENT
FIRST MAINLY NEAR MOUNTAINS THEN MOVING OFF TOWARD ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS/VALLEYS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER TSRA MOTION
LIKELY TO BE VERY SLOW AND RATHER ERRATIC IN DIRECTION. EXPECT
MVFR IMPACTS AND MT OBSCURATIONS WITH STORMS...ALTHOUGH EVEN
SHORT LIVED IFR CONDITIONS POSS WITH THE STRONGEST TSRA. AT LEAST
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND FOG REDUCED VSBY ACROSS THE
NW THIRD TO HALF OF THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z SUN. OUTSIDE
OF STORMS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED EARLY MORNING LOW CIGS AND FOG
POTENTIAL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  66  86  64  84 /  40  20  30  30
DULCE...........................  55  79  54  79 /  60  50  40  40
CUBA............................  56  79  55  78 /  60  60  50  50
GALLUP..........................  59  81  57  80 /  50  30  30  40
EL MORRO........................  56  80  55  80 /  70  50  40  40
GRANTS..........................  59  84  58  84 /  50  50  30  40
QUEMADO.........................  58  79  57  81 /  60  50  20  50
GLENWOOD........................  60  81  58  85 /  50  40  30  30
CHAMA...........................  52  72  51  71 /  60  60  50  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  61  80  60  79 /  60  50  60  60
PECOS...........................  58  80  58  78 /  60  50  50  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  54  74  53  70 /  60  40  60  70
RED RIVER.......................  49  65  49  61 /  70  40  60  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  51  69  51  64 /  70  60  70  70
TAOS............................  56  80  54  77 /  40  40  50  60
MORA............................  55  76  55  72 /  60  60  50  60
ESPANOLA........................  61  86  59  86 /  40  30  40  40
SANTA FE........................  61  79  60  79 /  50  40  40  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  61  84  60  83 /  40  30  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  66  87  65  88 /  50  40  50  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  68  89  66  90 /  30  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  67  91  66  93 /  30  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  68  92  66  95 /  40  30  40  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  67  90  66  93 /  30  20  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  67  91  65  92 /  50  30  40  30
SOCORRO.........................  67  92  66  95 /  30  30  30  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  60  83  60  85 /  50  60  50  30
TIJERAS.........................  61  86  61  88 /  50  50  50  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  86  57  86 /  40  40  40  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  59  82  59  82 /  50  50  40  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  61  83  60  86 /  30  30  40  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  87  63  88 /  30  20  30  30
RUIDOSO.........................  59  79  60  79 /  30  50  30  40
CAPULIN.........................  59  81  60  73 /  20  20  30  70
RATON...........................  58  84  58  77 /  20  10  30  60
SPRINGER........................  60  86  61  81 /  20  20  30  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  57  80  57  76 /  30  50  30  60
CLAYTON.........................  65  91  64  84 /  10   5  20  70
ROY.............................  63  85  62  82 /  10   5  30  60
CONCHAS.........................  68  95  68  91 /  10   5  20  60
SANTA ROSA......................  67  92  67  91 /  10   5  30  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  69  95  69  92 /  10   5  20  40
CLOVIS..........................  66  91  67  89 /   5   5  20  30
PORTALES........................  67  92  68  90 /   5   5  20  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  68  92  68  92 /   5   5  20  30
ROSWELL.........................  68  94  69  98 /   5   5  20  20
PICACHO.........................  63  89  64  91 /  10  20  30  30
ELK.............................  61  81  62  82 /  10  30  30  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

42



000
FXUS65 KABQ 041805
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1205 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GILA
REGION...WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. AFTER 19 OR
20Z EXPECT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TSRA IMPACTS...MAINLY STRONG
GUSTS...VERY HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING STRIKES AND IN A FEW CASES SMALL
HAIL...IN THE VICINITY OF TAF SITES GUP...SAF...LVS...ABQ AND AEG
AND AFTER APPROX 22Z VICINITY OF FMN. GENERALLY TSRA DEVELOPMENT
FIRST MAINLY NEAR MOUNTAINS THEN MOVING OFF TOWARD ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS/VALLEYS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER TSRA MOTION
LIKELY TO BE VERY SLOW AND RATHER ERRATIC IN DIRECTION. EXPECT
MVFR IMPACTS AND MT OBSCURATIONS WITH STORMS...ALTHOUGH EVEN
SHORT LIVED IFR CONDITIONS POSS WITH THE STRONGEST TSRA. AT LEAST
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND FOG REDUCED VSBY ACROSS THE
NW THIRD TO HALF OF THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z SUN. OUTSIDE
OF STORMS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED EARLY MORNING LOW CIGS AND FOG
POTENTIAL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHERE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP STORMS FROM DEVELOPING THERE. A
WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MAKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON MONDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACTIVITY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
MONSOON MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT SLIDES SEWD OVER NM TODAY. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND WEAK MID LEVEL DEFORMATION/STRETCHING
OVER CENTRAL NM...EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY CENTRAL AND WEST.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER ERN NM WILL RESULT IN A CAP THAT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING THERE. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE
THUNDERSTORMS TOUGHER TO COME BY IN THE VALLEYS/BASINS. ABQ AND
SANTA FE METROS WILL HAVE TO RELY ON COLLIDING OUTFLOWS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM12 BRINGS THROUGH A WEAK WAVE/VORT LOBE
THROUGH NW NM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM WELL AFTER
SUNSET AND POSSIBLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...RESULTING IN A NICE NATURAL
FIREWORKS DISPLAY.

AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EWD SUNDAY...NAM AND GFS BOTH PICKING UP
ON A SECOND WAVE/PERTURBATION MOVING UP FROM SE AZ SUNDAY
EVENING. BOTH MODELS HIT QPF OVER WESTERN NM RATHER HARD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE EVENING. W-NW
STEERING FLOW SHOULD SEND STORMS INTO THE RGV DURING THE EVENING.
ACTIVE AREA THEN SHIFTS TO THE ERN HALF OF NM MONDAY.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGGED BY ALL MODELS
TO DROP INTO NE AND EAST-CENTRAL NM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NAM REALLY HITTING PRECIP AMOUNTS HARD (1-2" IN 3HRS) FOR EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE NM MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS A GOOD BET
ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT
RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR.

ACTIVITY THEN SHIFTS BACK TO WRN AND CENTRAL NM TUESDAY. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS STARTED DRYING THINGS OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NOSING INTO THE STATE BUT THE 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS NOW HANG ON TO A MID LEVEL MOISTURE TAP FROM THE
SOUTH.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOOK FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS...SLOW TO
NEAR-STATIONARY STORM MOTION AND SOAKING RAINS FAVORING THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND VENT RATES SHOULD BE IMPROVED MOST AREAS.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL RECENTER SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE MOST AREAS AS A RESULT. VENT
RATES WILL LIKELY INCREASE MORE ON SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOP AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY...THEN THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...RECHARGING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOWING PWATS TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN STORMS MON/TUE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS WHERE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES AND VENT RATES TREND DOWN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST...BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK IS FOR WEAK WESTERLIES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH THE UPPER HIGH SOUTH OF THE AREA AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE STATE FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 041805
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1205 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GILA
REGION...WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. AFTER 19 OR
20Z EXPECT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TSRA IMPACTS...MAINLY STRONG
GUSTS...VERY HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING STRIKES AND IN A FEW CASES SMALL
HAIL...IN THE VICINITY OF TAF SITES GUP...SAF...LVS...ABQ AND AEG
AND AFTER APPROX 22Z VICINITY OF FMN. GENERALLY TSRA DEVELOPMENT
FIRST MAINLY NEAR MOUNTAINS THEN MOVING OFF TOWARD ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS/VALLEYS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER TSRA MOTION
LIKELY TO BE VERY SLOW AND RATHER ERRATIC IN DIRECTION. EXPECT
MVFR IMPACTS AND MT OBSCURATIONS WITH STORMS...ALTHOUGH EVEN
SHORT LIVED IFR CONDITIONS POSS WITH THE STRONGEST TSRA. AT LEAST
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND FOG REDUCED VSBY ACROSS THE
NW THIRD TO HALF OF THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z SUN. OUTSIDE
OF STORMS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED EARLY MORNING LOW CIGS AND FOG
POTENTIAL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHERE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP STORMS FROM DEVELOPING THERE. A
WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MAKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON MONDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACTIVITY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
MONSOON MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT SLIDES SEWD OVER NM TODAY. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND WEAK MID LEVEL DEFORMATION/STRETCHING
OVER CENTRAL NM...EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY CENTRAL AND WEST.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER ERN NM WILL RESULT IN A CAP THAT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING THERE. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE
THUNDERSTORMS TOUGHER TO COME BY IN THE VALLEYS/BASINS. ABQ AND
SANTA FE METROS WILL HAVE TO RELY ON COLLIDING OUTFLOWS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM12 BRINGS THROUGH A WEAK WAVE/VORT LOBE
THROUGH NW NM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM WELL AFTER
SUNSET AND POSSIBLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...RESULTING IN A NICE NATURAL
FIREWORKS DISPLAY.

AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EWD SUNDAY...NAM AND GFS BOTH PICKING UP
ON A SECOND WAVE/PERTURBATION MOVING UP FROM SE AZ SUNDAY
EVENING. BOTH MODELS HIT QPF OVER WESTERN NM RATHER HARD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE EVENING. W-NW
STEERING FLOW SHOULD SEND STORMS INTO THE RGV DURING THE EVENING.
ACTIVE AREA THEN SHIFTS TO THE ERN HALF OF NM MONDAY.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGGED BY ALL MODELS
TO DROP INTO NE AND EAST-CENTRAL NM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NAM REALLY HITTING PRECIP AMOUNTS HARD (1-2" IN 3HRS) FOR EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE NM MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS A GOOD BET
ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT
RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR.

ACTIVITY THEN SHIFTS BACK TO WRN AND CENTRAL NM TUESDAY. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS STARTED DRYING THINGS OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NOSING INTO THE STATE BUT THE 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS NOW HANG ON TO A MID LEVEL MOISTURE TAP FROM THE
SOUTH.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOOK FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS...SLOW TO
NEAR-STATIONARY STORM MOTION AND SOAKING RAINS FAVORING THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND VENT RATES SHOULD BE IMPROVED MOST AREAS.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL RECENTER SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE MOST AREAS AS A RESULT. VENT
RATES WILL LIKELY INCREASE MORE ON SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOP AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY...THEN THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...RECHARGING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOWING PWATS TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN STORMS MON/TUE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS WHERE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES AND VENT RATES TREND DOWN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST...BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK IS FOR WEAK WESTERLIES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH THE UPPER HIGH SOUTH OF THE AREA AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE STATE FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 041805
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1205 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GILA
REGION...WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. AFTER 19 OR
20Z EXPECT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TSRA IMPACTS...MAINLY STRONG
GUSTS...VERY HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING STRIKES AND IN A FEW CASES SMALL
HAIL...IN THE VICINITY OF TAF SITES GUP...SAF...LVS...ABQ AND AEG
AND AFTER APPROX 22Z VICINITY OF FMN. GENERALLY TSRA DEVELOPMENT
FIRST MAINLY NEAR MOUNTAINS THEN MOVING OFF TOWARD ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS/VALLEYS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER TSRA MOTION
LIKELY TO BE VERY SLOW AND RATHER ERRATIC IN DIRECTION. EXPECT
MVFR IMPACTS AND MT OBSCURATIONS WITH STORMS...ALTHOUGH EVEN
SHORT LIVED IFR CONDITIONS POSS WITH THE STRONGEST TSRA. AT LEAST
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND FOG REDUCED VSBY ACROSS THE
NW THIRD TO HALF OF THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z SUN. OUTSIDE
OF STORMS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED EARLY MORNING LOW CIGS AND FOG
POTENTIAL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHERE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP STORMS FROM DEVELOPING THERE. A
WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MAKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON MONDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACTIVITY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
MONSOON MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT SLIDES SEWD OVER NM TODAY. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND WEAK MID LEVEL DEFORMATION/STRETCHING
OVER CENTRAL NM...EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY CENTRAL AND WEST.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER ERN NM WILL RESULT IN A CAP THAT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING THERE. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE
THUNDERSTORMS TOUGHER TO COME BY IN THE VALLEYS/BASINS. ABQ AND
SANTA FE METROS WILL HAVE TO RELY ON COLLIDING OUTFLOWS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM12 BRINGS THROUGH A WEAK WAVE/VORT LOBE
THROUGH NW NM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM WELL AFTER
SUNSET AND POSSIBLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...RESULTING IN A NICE NATURAL
FIREWORKS DISPLAY.

AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EWD SUNDAY...NAM AND GFS BOTH PICKING UP
ON A SECOND WAVE/PERTURBATION MOVING UP FROM SE AZ SUNDAY
EVENING. BOTH MODELS HIT QPF OVER WESTERN NM RATHER HARD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE EVENING. W-NW
STEERING FLOW SHOULD SEND STORMS INTO THE RGV DURING THE EVENING.
ACTIVE AREA THEN SHIFTS TO THE ERN HALF OF NM MONDAY.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGGED BY ALL MODELS
TO DROP INTO NE AND EAST-CENTRAL NM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NAM REALLY HITTING PRECIP AMOUNTS HARD (1-2" IN 3HRS) FOR EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE NM MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS A GOOD BET
ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT
RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR.

ACTIVITY THEN SHIFTS BACK TO WRN AND CENTRAL NM TUESDAY. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS STARTED DRYING THINGS OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NOSING INTO THE STATE BUT THE 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS NOW HANG ON TO A MID LEVEL MOISTURE TAP FROM THE
SOUTH.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOOK FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS...SLOW TO
NEAR-STATIONARY STORM MOTION AND SOAKING RAINS FAVORING THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND VENT RATES SHOULD BE IMPROVED MOST AREAS.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL RECENTER SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE MOST AREAS AS A RESULT. VENT
RATES WILL LIKELY INCREASE MORE ON SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOP AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY...THEN THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...RECHARGING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOWING PWATS TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN STORMS MON/TUE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS WHERE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES AND VENT RATES TREND DOWN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST...BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK IS FOR WEAK WESTERLIES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH THE UPPER HIGH SOUTH OF THE AREA AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE STATE FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 041805
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1205 PM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA ALREADY INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GILA
REGION...WEST CENTRAL...CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. AFTER 19 OR
20Z EXPECT INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR TSRA IMPACTS...MAINLY STRONG
GUSTS...VERY HEAVY RAIN...LIGHTNING STRIKES AND IN A FEW CASES SMALL
HAIL...IN THE VICINITY OF TAF SITES GUP...SAF...LVS...ABQ AND AEG
AND AFTER APPROX 22Z VICINITY OF FMN. GENERALLY TSRA DEVELOPMENT
FIRST MAINLY NEAR MOUNTAINS THEN MOVING OFF TOWARD ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS/VALLEYS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HOWEVER TSRA MOTION
LIKELY TO BE VERY SLOW AND RATHER ERRATIC IN DIRECTION. EXPECT
MVFR IMPACTS AND MT OBSCURATIONS WITH STORMS...ALTHOUGH EVEN
SHORT LIVED IFR CONDITIONS POSS WITH THE STRONGEST TSRA. AT LEAST
A FEW PATCHES OF MVFR TO IFR CIGS AND FOG REDUCED VSBY ACROSS THE
NW THIRD TO HALF OF THE FCST AREA BETWEEN 09Z AND 15Z SUN. OUTSIDE
OF STORMS AND THE AFOREMENTIONED EARLY MORNING LOW CIGS AND FOG
POTENTIAL...VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHERE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP STORMS FROM DEVELOPING THERE. A
WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MAKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON MONDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACTIVITY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
MONSOON MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT SLIDES SEWD OVER NM TODAY. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND WEAK MID LEVEL DEFORMATION/STRETCHING
OVER CENTRAL NM...EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY CENTRAL AND WEST.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER ERN NM WILL RESULT IN A CAP THAT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING THERE. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE
THUNDERSTORMS TOUGHER TO COME BY IN THE VALLEYS/BASINS. ABQ AND
SANTA FE METROS WILL HAVE TO RELY ON COLLIDING OUTFLOWS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM12 BRINGS THROUGH A WEAK WAVE/VORT LOBE
THROUGH NW NM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM WELL AFTER
SUNSET AND POSSIBLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...RESULTING IN A NICE NATURAL
FIREWORKS DISPLAY.

AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EWD SUNDAY...NAM AND GFS BOTH PICKING UP
ON A SECOND WAVE/PERTURBATION MOVING UP FROM SE AZ SUNDAY
EVENING. BOTH MODELS HIT QPF OVER WESTERN NM RATHER HARD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE EVENING. W-NW
STEERING FLOW SHOULD SEND STORMS INTO THE RGV DURING THE EVENING.
ACTIVE AREA THEN SHIFTS TO THE ERN HALF OF NM MONDAY.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGGED BY ALL MODELS
TO DROP INTO NE AND EAST-CENTRAL NM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NAM REALLY HITTING PRECIP AMOUNTS HARD (1-2" IN 3HRS) FOR EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE NM MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS A GOOD BET
ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT
RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR.

ACTIVITY THEN SHIFTS BACK TO WRN AND CENTRAL NM TUESDAY. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS STARTED DRYING THINGS OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NOSING INTO THE STATE BUT THE 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS NOW HANG ON TO A MID LEVEL MOISTURE TAP FROM THE
SOUTH.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOOK FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS...SLOW TO
NEAR-STATIONARY STORM MOTION AND SOAKING RAINS FAVORING THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND VENT RATES SHOULD BE IMPROVED MOST AREAS.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL RECENTER SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE MOST AREAS AS A RESULT. VENT
RATES WILL LIKELY INCREASE MORE ON SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOP AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY...THEN THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...RECHARGING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOWING PWATS TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN STORMS MON/TUE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS WHERE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES AND VENT RATES TREND DOWN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST...BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK IS FOR WEAK WESTERLIES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH THE UPPER HIGH SOUTH OF THE AREA AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE STATE FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 041148
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY FORECAST...WITH VERY SLOW STORM MOTION. STORMS
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF TERMINALS NEAR MOUNTAINS AND MOVE OFF
TOWARD ADJACENT HIGHLANDS/VALLEYS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH STORMS...ALTHOUGH SHORT-LIVED IFR
CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IFR LOW CLOUDS/FOG CURRENTLY AT
KLVS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHERE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP STORMS FROM DEVELOPING THERE. A
WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MAKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON MONDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACTIVITY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
MONSOON MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT SLIDES SEWD OVER NM TODAY. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND WEAK MID LEVEL DEFORMATION/STRETCHING
OVER CENTRAL NM...EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY CENTRAL AND WEST.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER ERN NM WILL RESULT IN A CAP THAT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING THERE. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE
THUNDERSTORMS TOUGHER TO COME BY IN THE VALLEYS/BASINS. ABQ AND
SANTA FE METROS WILL HAVE TO RELY ON COLLIDING OUTFLOWS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM12 BRINGS THROUGH A WEAK WAVE/VORT LOBE
THROUGH NW NM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM WELL AFTER
SUNSET AND POSSIBLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...RESULTING IN A NICE NATURAL
FIREWORKS DISPLAY.

AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EWD SUNDAY...NAM AND GFS BOTH PICKING UP
ON A SECOND WAVE/PERTURBATION MOVING UP FROM SE AZ SUNDAY
EVENING. BOTH MODELS HIT QPF OVER WESTERN NM RATHER HARD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE EVENING. W-NW
STEERING FLOW SHOULD SEND STORMS INTO THE RGV DURING THE EVENING.
ACTIVE AREA THEN SHIFTS TO THE ERN HALF OF NM MONDAY.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGGED BY ALL MODELS
TO DROP INTO NE AND EAST-CENTRAL NM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NAM REALLY HITTING PRECIP AMOUNTS HARD (1-2" IN 3HRS) FOR EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE NM MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS A GOOD BET
ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT
RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR.

ACTIVITY THEN SHIFTS BACK TO WRN AND CENTRAL NM TUESDAY. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS STARTED DRYING THINGS OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NOSING INTO THE STATE BUT THE 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS NOW HANG ON TO A MID LEVEL MOISTURE TAP FROM THE
SOUTH.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOOK FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS...SLOW TO
NEAR-STATIONARY STORM MOTION AND SOAKING RAINS FAVORING THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND VENT RATES SHOULD BE IMPROVED MOST AREAS.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL RECENTER SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE MOST AREAS AS A RESULT. VENT
RATES WILL LIKELY INCREASE MORE ON SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOP AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY...THEN THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...RECHARGING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOWING PWATS TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN STORMS MON/TUE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS WHERE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES AND VENT RATES TREND DOWN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST...BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK IS FOR WEAK WESTERLIES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH THE UPPER HIGH SOUTH OF THE AREA AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE STATE FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33




000
FXUS65 KABQ 041148
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY FORECAST...WITH VERY SLOW STORM MOTION. STORMS
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF TERMINALS NEAR MOUNTAINS AND MOVE OFF
TOWARD ADJACENT HIGHLANDS/VALLEYS LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR
IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH STORMS...ALTHOUGH SHORT-LIVED IFR
CONDITIONS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT. IFR LOW CLOUDS/FOG CURRENTLY AT
KLVS WILL IMPROVE RAPIDLY TO VFR THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...335 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHERE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP STORMS FROM DEVELOPING THERE. A
WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MAKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON MONDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACTIVITY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
MONSOON MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT SLIDES SEWD OVER NM TODAY. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND WEAK MID LEVEL DEFORMATION/STRETCHING
OVER CENTRAL NM...EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY CENTRAL AND WEST.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER ERN NM WILL RESULT IN A CAP THAT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING THERE. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE
THUNDERSTORMS TOUGHER TO COME BY IN THE VALLEYS/BASINS. ABQ AND
SANTA FE METROS WILL HAVE TO RELY ON COLLIDING OUTFLOWS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM12 BRINGS THROUGH A WEAK WAVE/VORT LOBE
THROUGH NW NM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM WELL AFTER
SUNSET AND POSSIBLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...RESULTING IN A NICE NATURAL
FIREWORKS DISPLAY.

AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EWD SUNDAY...NAM AND GFS BOTH PICKING UP
ON A SECOND WAVE/PERTURBATION MOVING UP FROM SE AZ SUNDAY
EVENING. BOTH MODELS HIT QPF OVER WESTERN NM RATHER HARD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE EVENING. W-NW
STEERING FLOW SHOULD SEND STORMS INTO THE RGV DURING THE EVENING.
ACTIVE AREA THEN SHIFTS TO THE ERN HALF OF NM MONDAY.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGGED BY ALL MODELS
TO DROP INTO NE AND EAST-CENTRAL NM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NAM REALLY HITTING PRECIP AMOUNTS HARD (1-2" IN 3HRS) FOR EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE NM MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS A GOOD BET
ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT
RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR.

ACTIVITY THEN SHIFTS BACK TO WRN AND CENTRAL NM TUESDAY. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS STARTED DRYING THINGS OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NOSING INTO THE STATE BUT THE 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS NOW HANG ON TO A MID LEVEL MOISTURE TAP FROM THE
SOUTH.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOOK FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS...SLOW TO
NEAR-STATIONARY STORM MOTION AND SOAKING RAINS FAVORING THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND VENT RATES SHOULD BE IMPROVED MOST AREAS.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL RECENTER SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE MOST AREAS AS A RESULT. VENT
RATES WILL LIKELY INCREASE MORE ON SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOP AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY...THEN THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...RECHARGING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOWING PWATS TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN STORMS MON/TUE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS WHERE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES AND VENT RATES TREND DOWN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST...BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK IS FOR WEAK WESTERLIES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH THE UPPER HIGH SOUTH OF THE AREA AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE STATE FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33



000
FXUS65 KABQ 040935
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
335 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHERE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP STORMS FROM DEVELOPING THERE. A
WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MAKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON MONDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACTIVITY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
MONSOON MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT SLIDES SEWD OVER NM TODAY. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND WEAK MID LEVEL DEFORMATION/STRETCHING
OVER CENTRAL NM...EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY CENTRAL AND WEST.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER ERN NM WILL RESULT IN A CAP THAT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING THERE. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE
THUNDERSTORMS TOUGHER TO COME BY IN THE VALLEYS/BASINS. ABQ AND
SANTA FE METROS WILL HAVE TO RELY ON COLLIDING OUTFLOWS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM12 BRINGS THROUGH A WEAK WAVE/VORT LOBE
THROUGH NW NM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM WELL AFTER
SUNSET AND POSSIBLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...RESULTING IN A NICE NATURAL
FIREWORKS DISPLAY.

AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EWD SUNDAY...NAM AND GFS BOTH PICKING UP
ON A SECOND WAVE/PERTURBATION MOVING UP FROM SE AZ SUNDAY
EVENING. BOTH MODELS HIT QPF OVER WESTERN NM RATHER HARD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE EVENING. W-NW
STEERING FLOW SHOULD SEND STORMS INTO THE RGV DURING THE EVENING.
ACTIVE AREA THEN SHIFTS TO THE ERN HALF OF NM MONDAY.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGGED BY ALL MODELS
TO DROP INTO NE AND EAST-CENTRAL NM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NAM REALLY HITTING PRECIP AMOUNTS HARD (1-2" IN 3HRS) FOR EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE NM MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS A GOOD BET
ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT
RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR.

ACTIVITY THEN SHIFTS BACK TO WRN AND CENTRAL NM TUESDAY. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS STARTED DRYING THINGS OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NOSING INTO THE STATE BUT THE 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS NOW HANG ON TO A MID LEVEL MOISTURE TAP FROM THE
SOUTH.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOOK FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS...SLOW TO
NEAR-STATIONARY STORM MOTION AND SOAKING RAINS FAVORING THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND VENT RATES SHOULD BE IMPROVED MOST AREAS.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL RECENTER SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE MOST AREAS AS A RESULT. VENT
RATES WILL LIKELY INCREASE MORE ON SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOP AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY...THEN THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...RECHARGING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOWING PWATS TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN STORMS MON/TUE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS WHERE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES AND VENT RATES TREND DOWN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST...BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK IS FOR WEAK WESTERLIES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH THE UPPER HIGH SOUTH OF THE AREA AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE STATE FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WANED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE THIS EVENING...BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LINGERING NEAR KGUP...KTCC...AND KCVS.
THIS TREND FOR DECREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH 04/1000UTC. STORM MOTION WILL
BE QUITE ERRATIC WITH SOME SLOW MOVING CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEFTY DOWNPOURS WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY LOWERING TO THE
MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES. GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY
STORMS. WITH STORMS HAVING MOSTLY FADED BEFORE SUNRISE
SATURDAY...A BRIEF LULL CAN THEN BE EXPECTED INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...NEW CUMULUS BUILD-UPS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY GROW INTO NEW SHOWERS/STORMS
SATURDAY...WITH ACTIVITY STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  86  65  83  64 /  20  30  40  30
DULCE...........................  80  55  76  53 /  30  40  70  30
CUBA............................  76  56  75  55 /  30  50  70  50
GALLUP..........................  81  58  79  56 /  50  40  60  30
EL MORRO........................  80  56  78  55 /  60  60  70  60
GRANTS..........................  83  58  81  57 /  50  60  70  60
QUEMADO.........................  80  58  78  55 /  50  40  60  30
GLENWOOD........................  82  59  83  57 /  50  40  60  30
CHAMA...........................  72  52  71  51 /  40  50  60  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  77  61  78  60 /  40  40  70  50
PECOS...........................  78  58  79  58 /  40  40  40  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  74  53  73  53 /  40  30  40  30
RED RIVER.......................  68  49  66  49 /  50  40  70  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  69  51  68  51 /  50  40  70  40
TAOS............................  80  55  79  54 /  30  30  40  30
MORA............................  75  55  76  55 /  50  50  50  20
ESPANOLA........................  84  60  85  59 /  20  30  40  40
SANTA FE........................  79  61  80  60 /  30  40  30  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  82  61  83  60 /  20  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  86  66  85  65 /  30  40  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  88  69  87  68 /  20  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  90  65  89  64 /  20  30  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  89  67  88  66 /  20  30  30  50
LOS LUNAS.......................  90  65  89  64 /  20  30  30  30
RIO RANCHO......................  89  66  89  65 /  20  30  30  40
SOCORRO.........................  92  66  91  66 /  40  30  30  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  80  60  81  60 /  40  50  30  30
TIJERAS.........................  82  61  83  58 /  40  50  30  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  83  55  84  55 /  20  30  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  79  59  81  59 /  30  20  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  82  61  83  60 /  40  30  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  87  63  87  63 /  30  30  30  30
RUIDOSO.........................  78  59  78  60 /  40  20  60  40
CAPULIN.........................  80  59  80  59 /  20  10  40  30
RATON...........................  84  57  83  58 /  10  10  50  20
SPRINGER........................  85  59  85  60 /  10  10  40  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  78  57  79  57 /  40  40  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  89  65  90  64 /   5  10  20  20
ROY.............................  82  62  84  62 /  10  10  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  91  68  94  68 /   5  10  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  90  66  92  67 /   5  10  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  91  69  94  69 /   5  10  10  10
CLOVIS..........................  88  65  90  68 /   5  10  10  10
PORTALES........................  90  66  92  68 /   5  10  10  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  89  67  92  69 /   5  10  10  10
ROSWELL.........................  92  68  96  69 /   5  10  10  30
PICACHO.........................  87  62  88  64 /  10  10  30  40
ELK.............................  79  60  81  62 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33




000
FXUS65 KABQ 040935
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
335 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHERE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP STORMS FROM DEVELOPING THERE. A
WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MAKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON MONDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACTIVITY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
MONSOON MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT SLIDES SEWD OVER NM TODAY. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND WEAK MID LEVEL DEFORMATION/STRETCHING
OVER CENTRAL NM...EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY CENTRAL AND WEST.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER ERN NM WILL RESULT IN A CAP THAT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING THERE. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE
THUNDERSTORMS TOUGHER TO COME BY IN THE VALLEYS/BASINS. ABQ AND
SANTA FE METROS WILL HAVE TO RELY ON COLLIDING OUTFLOWS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM12 BRINGS THROUGH A WEAK WAVE/VORT LOBE
THROUGH NW NM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM WELL AFTER
SUNSET AND POSSIBLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...RESULTING IN A NICE NATURAL
FIREWORKS DISPLAY.

AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EWD SUNDAY...NAM AND GFS BOTH PICKING UP
ON A SECOND WAVE/PERTURBATION MOVING UP FROM SE AZ SUNDAY
EVENING. BOTH MODELS HIT QPF OVER WESTERN NM RATHER HARD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE EVENING. W-NW
STEERING FLOW SHOULD SEND STORMS INTO THE RGV DURING THE EVENING.
ACTIVE AREA THEN SHIFTS TO THE ERN HALF OF NM MONDAY.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGGED BY ALL MODELS
TO DROP INTO NE AND EAST-CENTRAL NM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NAM REALLY HITTING PRECIP AMOUNTS HARD (1-2" IN 3HRS) FOR EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE NM MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS A GOOD BET
ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT
RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR.

ACTIVITY THEN SHIFTS BACK TO WRN AND CENTRAL NM TUESDAY. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS STARTED DRYING THINGS OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NOSING INTO THE STATE BUT THE 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS NOW HANG ON TO A MID LEVEL MOISTURE TAP FROM THE
SOUTH.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOOK FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS...SLOW TO
NEAR-STATIONARY STORM MOTION AND SOAKING RAINS FAVORING THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND VENT RATES SHOULD BE IMPROVED MOST AREAS.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL RECENTER SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE MOST AREAS AS A RESULT. VENT
RATES WILL LIKELY INCREASE MORE ON SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOP AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY...THEN THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...RECHARGING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOWING PWATS TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN STORMS MON/TUE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS WHERE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES AND VENT RATES TREND DOWN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST...BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK IS FOR WEAK WESTERLIES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH THE UPPER HIGH SOUTH OF THE AREA AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE STATE FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WANED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE THIS EVENING...BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LINGERING NEAR KGUP...KTCC...AND KCVS.
THIS TREND FOR DECREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH 04/1000UTC. STORM MOTION WILL
BE QUITE ERRATIC WITH SOME SLOW MOVING CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEFTY DOWNPOURS WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY LOWERING TO THE
MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES. GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY
STORMS. WITH STORMS HAVING MOSTLY FADED BEFORE SUNRISE
SATURDAY...A BRIEF LULL CAN THEN BE EXPECTED INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...NEW CUMULUS BUILD-UPS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY GROW INTO NEW SHOWERS/STORMS
SATURDAY...WITH ACTIVITY STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  86  65  83  64 /  20  30  40  30
DULCE...........................  80  55  76  53 /  30  40  70  30
CUBA............................  76  56  75  55 /  30  50  70  50
GALLUP..........................  81  58  79  56 /  50  40  60  30
EL MORRO........................  80  56  78  55 /  60  60  70  60
GRANTS..........................  83  58  81  57 /  50  60  70  60
QUEMADO.........................  80  58  78  55 /  50  40  60  30
GLENWOOD........................  82  59  83  57 /  50  40  60  30
CHAMA...........................  72  52  71  51 /  40  50  60  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  77  61  78  60 /  40  40  70  50
PECOS...........................  78  58  79  58 /  40  40  40  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  74  53  73  53 /  40  30  40  30
RED RIVER.......................  68  49  66  49 /  50  40  70  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  69  51  68  51 /  50  40  70  40
TAOS............................  80  55  79  54 /  30  30  40  30
MORA............................  75  55  76  55 /  50  50  50  20
ESPANOLA........................  84  60  85  59 /  20  30  40  40
SANTA FE........................  79  61  80  60 /  30  40  30  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  82  61  83  60 /  20  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  86  66  85  65 /  30  40  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  88  69  87  68 /  20  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  90  65  89  64 /  20  30  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  89  67  88  66 /  20  30  30  50
LOS LUNAS.......................  90  65  89  64 /  20  30  30  30
RIO RANCHO......................  89  66  89  65 /  20  30  30  40
SOCORRO.........................  92  66  91  66 /  40  30  30  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  80  60  81  60 /  40  50  30  30
TIJERAS.........................  82  61  83  58 /  40  50  30  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  83  55  84  55 /  20  30  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  79  59  81  59 /  30  20  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  82  61  83  60 /  40  30  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  87  63  87  63 /  30  30  30  30
RUIDOSO.........................  78  59  78  60 /  40  20  60  40
CAPULIN.........................  80  59  80  59 /  20  10  40  30
RATON...........................  84  57  83  58 /  10  10  50  20
SPRINGER........................  85  59  85  60 /  10  10  40  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  78  57  79  57 /  40  40  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  89  65  90  64 /   5  10  20  20
ROY.............................  82  62  84  62 /  10  10  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  91  68  94  68 /   5  10  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  90  66  92  67 /   5  10  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  91  69  94  69 /   5  10  10  10
CLOVIS..........................  88  65  90  68 /   5  10  10  10
PORTALES........................  90  66  92  68 /   5  10  10  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  89  67  92  69 /   5  10  10  10
ROSWELL.........................  92  68  96  69 /   5  10  10  30
PICACHO.........................  87  62  88  64 /  10  10  30  40
ELK.............................  79  60  81  62 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33




000
FXUS65 KABQ 040935
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
335 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHERE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP STORMS FROM DEVELOPING THERE. A
WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MAKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON MONDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACTIVITY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
MONSOON MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT SLIDES SEWD OVER NM TODAY. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND WEAK MID LEVEL DEFORMATION/STRETCHING
OVER CENTRAL NM...EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY CENTRAL AND WEST.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER ERN NM WILL RESULT IN A CAP THAT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING THERE. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE
THUNDERSTORMS TOUGHER TO COME BY IN THE VALLEYS/BASINS. ABQ AND
SANTA FE METROS WILL HAVE TO RELY ON COLLIDING OUTFLOWS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM12 BRINGS THROUGH A WEAK WAVE/VORT LOBE
THROUGH NW NM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM WELL AFTER
SUNSET AND POSSIBLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...RESULTING IN A NICE NATURAL
FIREWORKS DISPLAY.

AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EWD SUNDAY...NAM AND GFS BOTH PICKING UP
ON A SECOND WAVE/PERTURBATION MOVING UP FROM SE AZ SUNDAY
EVENING. BOTH MODELS HIT QPF OVER WESTERN NM RATHER HARD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE EVENING. W-NW
STEERING FLOW SHOULD SEND STORMS INTO THE RGV DURING THE EVENING.
ACTIVE AREA THEN SHIFTS TO THE ERN HALF OF NM MONDAY.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGGED BY ALL MODELS
TO DROP INTO NE AND EAST-CENTRAL NM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NAM REALLY HITTING PRECIP AMOUNTS HARD (1-2" IN 3HRS) FOR EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE NM MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS A GOOD BET
ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT
RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR.

ACTIVITY THEN SHIFTS BACK TO WRN AND CENTRAL NM TUESDAY. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS STARTED DRYING THINGS OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NOSING INTO THE STATE BUT THE 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS NOW HANG ON TO A MID LEVEL MOISTURE TAP FROM THE
SOUTH.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOOK FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS...SLOW TO
NEAR-STATIONARY STORM MOTION AND SOAKING RAINS FAVORING THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND VENT RATES SHOULD BE IMPROVED MOST AREAS.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL RECENTER SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE MOST AREAS AS A RESULT. VENT
RATES WILL LIKELY INCREASE MORE ON SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOP AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY...THEN THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...RECHARGING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOWING PWATS TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN STORMS MON/TUE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS WHERE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES AND VENT RATES TREND DOWN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST...BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK IS FOR WEAK WESTERLIES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH THE UPPER HIGH SOUTH OF THE AREA AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE STATE FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WANED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE THIS EVENING...BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LINGERING NEAR KGUP...KTCC...AND KCVS.
THIS TREND FOR DECREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH 04/1000UTC. STORM MOTION WILL
BE QUITE ERRATIC WITH SOME SLOW MOVING CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEFTY DOWNPOURS WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY LOWERING TO THE
MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES. GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY
STORMS. WITH STORMS HAVING MOSTLY FADED BEFORE SUNRISE
SATURDAY...A BRIEF LULL CAN THEN BE EXPECTED INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...NEW CUMULUS BUILD-UPS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY GROW INTO NEW SHOWERS/STORMS
SATURDAY...WITH ACTIVITY STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  86  65  83  64 /  20  30  40  30
DULCE...........................  80  55  76  53 /  30  40  70  30
CUBA............................  76  56  75  55 /  30  50  70  50
GALLUP..........................  81  58  79  56 /  50  40  60  30
EL MORRO........................  80  56  78  55 /  60  60  70  60
GRANTS..........................  83  58  81  57 /  50  60  70  60
QUEMADO.........................  80  58  78  55 /  50  40  60  30
GLENWOOD........................  82  59  83  57 /  50  40  60  30
CHAMA...........................  72  52  71  51 /  40  50  60  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  77  61  78  60 /  40  40  70  50
PECOS...........................  78  58  79  58 /  40  40  40  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  74  53  73  53 /  40  30  40  30
RED RIVER.......................  68  49  66  49 /  50  40  70  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  69  51  68  51 /  50  40  70  40
TAOS............................  80  55  79  54 /  30  30  40  30
MORA............................  75  55  76  55 /  50  50  50  20
ESPANOLA........................  84  60  85  59 /  20  30  40  40
SANTA FE........................  79  61  80  60 /  30  40  30  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  82  61  83  60 /  20  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  86  66  85  65 /  30  40  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  88  69  87  68 /  20  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  90  65  89  64 /  20  30  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  89  67  88  66 /  20  30  30  50
LOS LUNAS.......................  90  65  89  64 /  20  30  30  30
RIO RANCHO......................  89  66  89  65 /  20  30  30  40
SOCORRO.........................  92  66  91  66 /  40  30  30  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  80  60  81  60 /  40  50  30  30
TIJERAS.........................  82  61  83  58 /  40  50  30  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  83  55  84  55 /  20  30  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  79  59  81  59 /  30  20  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  82  61  83  60 /  40  30  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  87  63  87  63 /  30  30  30  30
RUIDOSO.........................  78  59  78  60 /  40  20  60  40
CAPULIN.........................  80  59  80  59 /  20  10  40  30
RATON...........................  84  57  83  58 /  10  10  50  20
SPRINGER........................  85  59  85  60 /  10  10  40  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  78  57  79  57 /  40  40  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  89  65  90  64 /   5  10  20  20
ROY.............................  82  62  84  62 /  10  10  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  91  68  94  68 /   5  10  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  90  66  92  67 /   5  10  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  91  69  94  69 /   5  10  10  10
CLOVIS..........................  88  65  90  68 /   5  10  10  10
PORTALES........................  90  66  92  68 /   5  10  10  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  89  67  92  69 /   5  10  10  10
ROSWELL.........................  92  68  96  69 /   5  10  10  30
PICACHO.........................  87  62  88  64 /  10  10  30  40
ELK.............................  79  60  81  62 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33




000
FXUS65 KABQ 040935
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
335 AM MDT SAT JUL 4 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS
WHERE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP STORMS FROM DEVELOPING THERE. A
WEAK WAVE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL MAKE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY FOR MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ON MONDAY...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL SHIFT ACTIVITY TO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
MONSOON MOISTURE STREAMS INTO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL WEAKEN
SOMEWHAT AS IT SLIDES SEWD OVER NM TODAY. WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN
700-500MB LAPSE RATES AND WEAK MID LEVEL DEFORMATION/STRETCHING
OVER CENTRAL NM...EXPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY CENTRAL AND WEST.
STRONG SUBSIDENCE OVER ERN NM WILL RESULT IN A CAP THAT WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORMS FROM DEVELOPING THERE. WEAK STEERING FLOW WILL MAKE
THUNDERSTORMS TOUGHER TO COME BY IN THE VALLEYS/BASINS. ABQ AND
SANTA FE METROS WILL HAVE TO RELY ON COLLIDING OUTFLOWS FOR
STORM DEVELOPMENT. NAM12 BRINGS THROUGH A WEAK WAVE/VORT LOBE
THROUGH NW NM THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING OVER WRN AND CENTRAL NM WELL AFTER
SUNSET AND POSSIBLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...RESULTING IN A NICE NATURAL
FIREWORKS DISPLAY.

AS THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTS EWD SUNDAY...NAM AND GFS BOTH PICKING UP
ON A SECOND WAVE/PERTURBATION MOVING UP FROM SE AZ SUNDAY
EVENING. BOTH MODELS HIT QPF OVER WESTERN NM RATHER HARD SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND OVER CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE EVENING. W-NW
STEERING FLOW SHOULD SEND STORMS INTO THE RGV DURING THE EVENING.
ACTIVE AREA THEN SHIFTS TO THE ERN HALF OF NM MONDAY.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG BACKDOOR COLD FRONT PROGGED BY ALL MODELS
TO DROP INTO NE AND EAST-CENTRAL NM MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
NAM REALLY HITTING PRECIP AMOUNTS HARD (1-2" IN 3HRS) FOR EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE NM MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS A GOOD BET
ALONG AND NEAR THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT WITH MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT
RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT BULK SHEAR.

ACTIVITY THEN SHIFTS BACK TO WRN AND CENTRAL NM TUESDAY. EARLIER
MODEL RUNS STARTED DRYING THINGS OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH
A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT NOSING INTO THE STATE BUT THE 00Z GFS
AND ECMWF RUNS NOW HANG ON TO A MID LEVEL MOISTURE TAP FROM THE
SOUTH.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
LOOK FOR ANOTHER DAY OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS...SLOW TO
NEAR-STATIONARY STORM MOTION AND SOAKING RAINS FAVORING THE CENTRAL
AND WESTERN HIGHER TERRAIN. HIGHS TODAY WILL GENERALLY BE A COUPLE
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AND VENT RATES SHOULD BE IMPROVED MOST AREAS.
THE UPPER HIGH WILL RECENTER SOUTH OF OUR AREA SUNDAY WITH A WEAK
SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER COLORADO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN WILL INCREASE MOST AREAS AS A RESULT. VENT
RATES WILL LIKELY INCREASE MORE ON SUNDAY AS SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS
DEVELOP AND A LEE SIDE TROUGH DEEPENS OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT IS STILL ON TRACK TO MOVE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
ON MONDAY...THEN THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY
NIGHT...RECHARGING MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA AND ALLOWING PWATS TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL. LOOK FOR AN UPTICK IN STORMS MON/TUE...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS WHERE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE. TEMPERATURES AND VENT RATES TREND DOWN
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY EAST...BEHIND THE BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK IS FOR WEAK WESTERLIES ACROSS
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WITH THE UPPER HIGH SOUTH OF THE AREA AND PLENTY
OF MOISTURE REMAINING OVER THE STATE FOR DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WANED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE THIS EVENING...BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LINGERING NEAR KGUP...KTCC...AND KCVS.
THIS TREND FOR DECREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH 04/1000UTC. STORM MOTION WILL
BE QUITE ERRATIC WITH SOME SLOW MOVING CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEFTY DOWNPOURS WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY LOWERING TO THE
MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES. GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY
STORMS. WITH STORMS HAVING MOSTLY FADED BEFORE SUNRISE
SATURDAY...A BRIEF LULL CAN THEN BE EXPECTED INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...NEW CUMULUS BUILD-UPS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY GROW INTO NEW SHOWERS/STORMS
SATURDAY...WITH ACTIVITY STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  86  65  83  64 /  20  30  40  30
DULCE...........................  80  55  76  53 /  30  40  70  30
CUBA............................  76  56  75  55 /  30  50  70  50
GALLUP..........................  81  58  79  56 /  50  40  60  30
EL MORRO........................  80  56  78  55 /  60  60  70  60
GRANTS..........................  83  58  81  57 /  50  60  70  60
QUEMADO.........................  80  58  78  55 /  50  40  60  30
GLENWOOD........................  82  59  83  57 /  50  40  60  30
CHAMA...........................  72  52  71  51 /  40  50  60  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  77  61  78  60 /  40  40  70  50
PECOS...........................  78  58  79  58 /  40  40  40  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  74  53  73  53 /  40  30  40  30
RED RIVER.......................  68  49  66  49 /  50  40  70  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  69  51  68  51 /  50  40  70  40
TAOS............................  80  55  79  54 /  30  30  40  30
MORA............................  75  55  76  55 /  50  50  50  20
ESPANOLA........................  84  60  85  59 /  20  30  40  40
SANTA FE........................  79  61  80  60 /  30  40  30  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  82  61  83  60 /  20  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  86  66  85  65 /  30  40  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  88  69  87  68 /  20  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  90  65  89  64 /  20  30  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  89  67  88  66 /  20  30  30  50
LOS LUNAS.......................  90  65  89  64 /  20  30  30  30
RIO RANCHO......................  89  66  89  65 /  20  30  30  40
SOCORRO.........................  92  66  91  66 /  40  30  30  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  80  60  81  60 /  40  50  30  30
TIJERAS.........................  82  61  83  58 /  40  50  30  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  83  55  84  55 /  20  30  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  79  59  81  59 /  30  20  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  82  61  83  60 /  40  30  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  87  63  87  63 /  30  30  30  30
RUIDOSO.........................  78  59  78  60 /  40  20  60  40
CAPULIN.........................  80  59  80  59 /  20  10  40  30
RATON...........................  84  57  83  58 /  10  10  50  20
SPRINGER........................  85  59  85  60 /  10  10  40  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  78  57  79  57 /  40  40  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  89  65  90  64 /   5  10  20  20
ROY.............................  82  62  84  62 /  10  10  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  91  68  94  68 /   5  10  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  90  66  92  67 /   5  10  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  91  69  94  69 /   5  10  10  10
CLOVIS..........................  88  65  90  68 /   5  10  10  10
PORTALES........................  90  66  92  68 /   5  10  10  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  89  67  92  69 /   5  10  10  10
ROSWELL.........................  92  68  96  69 /   5  10  10  30
PICACHO.........................  87  62  88  64 /  10  10  30  40
ELK.............................  79  60  81  62 /  20  20  40  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33




000
FXUS65 KABQ 040528 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WANED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE THIS EVENING...BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LINGERING NEAR KGUP...KTCC...AND KCVS.
THIS TREND FOR DECREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH 04/1000UTC. STORM MOTION WILL
BE QUITE ERRATIC WITH SOME SLOW MOVING CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEFTY DOWNPOURS WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY LOWERING TO THE
MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES. GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY
STORMS. WITH STORMS HAVING MOSTLY FADED BEFORE SUNRISE
SATURDAY...A BRIEF LULL CAN THEN BE EXPECTED INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...NEW CUMULUS BUILD-UPS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY GROW INTO NEW SHOWERS/STORMS
SATURDAY...WITH ACTIVITY STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW
MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
PERHAPS SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER. BY NEXT WEEK...THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS AND DELIVER
A MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW PATTERN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUING. A SLIGHT DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF NOTABLE PWAT VALUES OF 1.2 ON THE 12Z
KABQ SOUNDING...INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER
AND LIMITED HEATING. THAT SAID...CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE LOW SO
TERRAIN DOMINATED CIRCULATIONS ARE THE MAIN PLAYER SO FAR.
GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS YESTERDAY ON
PINPOINTING AN AREA FOR INCREASED FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO THIS
EVENING SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH. THE 18Z HRRR DOES SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO/NORTHERN NM MOVING
SOUTHWARD...WHICH SPAWNS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE ABQ METRO THIS EVENING. RAISED POPS TO NEAR LIKELY AROUND
ABQ/SAF AND LIKELY FOR NEARBY HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY DRIFTING EAST INTO NM IS STRETCHING THE
MONSOON PLUME FROM NW TO SE OVER THE STATE. A DRY SLOT NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IS CREEPING NORTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MX AND THIS IS
AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REORIENTING THE MONSOON PLUME INTO A MORE NORTH SOUTH
POSITION SATURDAY WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. NEARLY STATIONARY STEERING FLOW...PWATS ABOVE
1.2...AND THE DRY SLOT ADVANCING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY IS A
GREAT PATTERN FOR FLASH FLOODING...IF CLOUD COVER DOESNT INHIBIT
SURFACE HEATING TOO MUCH. RAISED POPS FOR THE WEST DURING THE DAY
THEN THE CENTRAL VALLEY IN THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES
CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL DEPICT DIFFERENT STORM
COVERAGE PATTERNS. WENT NEAR CLIMO WITH POPS HIGHEST IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN.

A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL SHOWN TO ENTER THE NE
PLAINS MONDAY. THIS DRIVES A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY
RAIN FROM THE SANGRES EAST...THEN OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP ACTIVITY AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK STILL ACTIVE WITH A MORE TERRAIN FOCUSED
PATTERN TO THE CONVECTION AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND/OR SE
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL FORCE TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE ACTIVE WETTING THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY VARYING AROUND 1 TO 1.25
INCHES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SPIKING EVEN HIGHER TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DUE
TO THESE HIGH PWATS AND GENERALLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE
ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING. PWATS MAY DECREASE TO AROUND 0.75 OF AN INCH ACROSS NW
AREAS WED AND THU...BUT THESE VALUES WILL STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
WETTING RAINFALL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS
BEEN NW OF THE FOUR CORNERS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER S NM. WITH
ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS WETTING STORMS WILL FAVOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS...WHILE MOVING W TO E AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY AND WNW TO
ESE AROUND 10-20 MPH SUNDAY. FASTER MOTIONS SUNDAY WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT S OF AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
CETNRAL ROCKIES.  IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A MOIST BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY PUMPING UP PWATS EVEN MORE ACROSS THE EAST AND RECHARGING
MOISTURE ALL THE WAY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WATCH FOR A GUSTY
EAST CANYON WIND IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TUESDAY. IT LOOKS SHALLOWER THAN SUNDAYS SYSTEM...BUT THIS TROUGH
SHOULD STILL DRAW A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD ACROSS NM.
 FORCING FOR THIS PLUME WILL BE AIDED BY AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR SAN FRANCISCO...CA.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING...BUT THIS
SYSTEM MAY BEGIN MOVING INLAND BY EARLY THURSDAY ALLOWING SOME DRIER
AIR TO FILTER INTO NW NM. THIS DRYING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS UPPER
TROUGH...IF THE TROUGH IS DEEP ENOUGH.

SOME POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. AFTER SOME VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY...AND GOOD OR
BETTER VENTILATION MONDAY...POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE FORECAST
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY. VENTILATION LOOKS
TO IMPROVE AGAIN WEDENSDAY AND THURSDAY.

WITH ALL THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST
SUNDAY...BEFORE MONDAYS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS READINGS BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD STAY BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST CENTRAL AND
WEST WED AND THU DUE TO THE RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EXPECTED.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 040528 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WANED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE THIS EVENING...BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LINGERING NEAR KGUP...KTCC...AND KCVS.
THIS TREND FOR DECREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH 04/1000UTC. STORM MOTION WILL
BE QUITE ERRATIC WITH SOME SLOW MOVING CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEFTY DOWNPOURS WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY LOWERING TO THE
MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES. GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY
STORMS. WITH STORMS HAVING MOSTLY FADED BEFORE SUNRISE
SATURDAY...A BRIEF LULL CAN THEN BE EXPECTED INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...NEW CUMULUS BUILD-UPS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY GROW INTO NEW SHOWERS/STORMS
SATURDAY...WITH ACTIVITY STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW
MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
PERHAPS SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER. BY NEXT WEEK...THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS AND DELIVER
A MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW PATTERN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUING. A SLIGHT DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF NOTABLE PWAT VALUES OF 1.2 ON THE 12Z
KABQ SOUNDING...INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER
AND LIMITED HEATING. THAT SAID...CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE LOW SO
TERRAIN DOMINATED CIRCULATIONS ARE THE MAIN PLAYER SO FAR.
GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS YESTERDAY ON
PINPOINTING AN AREA FOR INCREASED FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO THIS
EVENING SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH. THE 18Z HRRR DOES SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO/NORTHERN NM MOVING
SOUTHWARD...WHICH SPAWNS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE ABQ METRO THIS EVENING. RAISED POPS TO NEAR LIKELY AROUND
ABQ/SAF AND LIKELY FOR NEARBY HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY DRIFTING EAST INTO NM IS STRETCHING THE
MONSOON PLUME FROM NW TO SE OVER THE STATE. A DRY SLOT NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IS CREEPING NORTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MX AND THIS IS
AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REORIENTING THE MONSOON PLUME INTO A MORE NORTH SOUTH
POSITION SATURDAY WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. NEARLY STATIONARY STEERING FLOW...PWATS ABOVE
1.2...AND THE DRY SLOT ADVANCING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY IS A
GREAT PATTERN FOR FLASH FLOODING...IF CLOUD COVER DOESNT INHIBIT
SURFACE HEATING TOO MUCH. RAISED POPS FOR THE WEST DURING THE DAY
THEN THE CENTRAL VALLEY IN THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES
CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL DEPICT DIFFERENT STORM
COVERAGE PATTERNS. WENT NEAR CLIMO WITH POPS HIGHEST IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN.

A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL SHOWN TO ENTER THE NE
PLAINS MONDAY. THIS DRIVES A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY
RAIN FROM THE SANGRES EAST...THEN OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP ACTIVITY AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK STILL ACTIVE WITH A MORE TERRAIN FOCUSED
PATTERN TO THE CONVECTION AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND/OR SE
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL FORCE TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE ACTIVE WETTING THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY VARYING AROUND 1 TO 1.25
INCHES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SPIKING EVEN HIGHER TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DUE
TO THESE HIGH PWATS AND GENERALLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE
ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING. PWATS MAY DECREASE TO AROUND 0.75 OF AN INCH ACROSS NW
AREAS WED AND THU...BUT THESE VALUES WILL STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
WETTING RAINFALL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS
BEEN NW OF THE FOUR CORNERS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER S NM. WITH
ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS WETTING STORMS WILL FAVOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS...WHILE MOVING W TO E AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY AND WNW TO
ESE AROUND 10-20 MPH SUNDAY. FASTER MOTIONS SUNDAY WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT S OF AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
CETNRAL ROCKIES.  IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A MOIST BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY PUMPING UP PWATS EVEN MORE ACROSS THE EAST AND RECHARGING
MOISTURE ALL THE WAY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WATCH FOR A GUSTY
EAST CANYON WIND IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TUESDAY. IT LOOKS SHALLOWER THAN SUNDAYS SYSTEM...BUT THIS TROUGH
SHOULD STILL DRAW A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD ACROSS NM.
 FORCING FOR THIS PLUME WILL BE AIDED BY AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR SAN FRANCISCO...CA.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING...BUT THIS
SYSTEM MAY BEGIN MOVING INLAND BY EARLY THURSDAY ALLOWING SOME DRIER
AIR TO FILTER INTO NW NM. THIS DRYING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS UPPER
TROUGH...IF THE TROUGH IS DEEP ENOUGH.

SOME POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. AFTER SOME VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY...AND GOOD OR
BETTER VENTILATION MONDAY...POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE FORECAST
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY. VENTILATION LOOKS
TO IMPROVE AGAIN WEDENSDAY AND THURSDAY.

WITH ALL THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST
SUNDAY...BEFORE MONDAYS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS READINGS BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD STAY BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST CENTRAL AND
WEST WED AND THU DUE TO THE RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EXPECTED.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 040528 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WANED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE THIS EVENING...BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LINGERING NEAR KGUP...KTCC...AND KCVS.
THIS TREND FOR DECREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH 04/1000UTC. STORM MOTION WILL
BE QUITE ERRATIC WITH SOME SLOW MOVING CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEFTY DOWNPOURS WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY LOWERING TO THE
MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES. GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY
STORMS. WITH STORMS HAVING MOSTLY FADED BEFORE SUNRISE
SATURDAY...A BRIEF LULL CAN THEN BE EXPECTED INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...NEW CUMULUS BUILD-UPS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY GROW INTO NEW SHOWERS/STORMS
SATURDAY...WITH ACTIVITY STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW
MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
PERHAPS SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER. BY NEXT WEEK...THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS AND DELIVER
A MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW PATTERN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUING. A SLIGHT DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF NOTABLE PWAT VALUES OF 1.2 ON THE 12Z
KABQ SOUNDING...INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER
AND LIMITED HEATING. THAT SAID...CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE LOW SO
TERRAIN DOMINATED CIRCULATIONS ARE THE MAIN PLAYER SO FAR.
GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS YESTERDAY ON
PINPOINTING AN AREA FOR INCREASED FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO THIS
EVENING SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH. THE 18Z HRRR DOES SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO/NORTHERN NM MOVING
SOUTHWARD...WHICH SPAWNS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE ABQ METRO THIS EVENING. RAISED POPS TO NEAR LIKELY AROUND
ABQ/SAF AND LIKELY FOR NEARBY HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY DRIFTING EAST INTO NM IS STRETCHING THE
MONSOON PLUME FROM NW TO SE OVER THE STATE. A DRY SLOT NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IS CREEPING NORTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MX AND THIS IS
AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REORIENTING THE MONSOON PLUME INTO A MORE NORTH SOUTH
POSITION SATURDAY WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. NEARLY STATIONARY STEERING FLOW...PWATS ABOVE
1.2...AND THE DRY SLOT ADVANCING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY IS A
GREAT PATTERN FOR FLASH FLOODING...IF CLOUD COVER DOESNT INHIBIT
SURFACE HEATING TOO MUCH. RAISED POPS FOR THE WEST DURING THE DAY
THEN THE CENTRAL VALLEY IN THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES
CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL DEPICT DIFFERENT STORM
COVERAGE PATTERNS. WENT NEAR CLIMO WITH POPS HIGHEST IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN.

A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL SHOWN TO ENTER THE NE
PLAINS MONDAY. THIS DRIVES A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY
RAIN FROM THE SANGRES EAST...THEN OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP ACTIVITY AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK STILL ACTIVE WITH A MORE TERRAIN FOCUSED
PATTERN TO THE CONVECTION AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND/OR SE
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL FORCE TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE ACTIVE WETTING THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY VARYING AROUND 1 TO 1.25
INCHES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SPIKING EVEN HIGHER TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DUE
TO THESE HIGH PWATS AND GENERALLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE
ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING. PWATS MAY DECREASE TO AROUND 0.75 OF AN INCH ACROSS NW
AREAS WED AND THU...BUT THESE VALUES WILL STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
WETTING RAINFALL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS
BEEN NW OF THE FOUR CORNERS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER S NM. WITH
ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS WETTING STORMS WILL FAVOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS...WHILE MOVING W TO E AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY AND WNW TO
ESE AROUND 10-20 MPH SUNDAY. FASTER MOTIONS SUNDAY WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT S OF AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
CETNRAL ROCKIES.  IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A MOIST BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY PUMPING UP PWATS EVEN MORE ACROSS THE EAST AND RECHARGING
MOISTURE ALL THE WAY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WATCH FOR A GUSTY
EAST CANYON WIND IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TUESDAY. IT LOOKS SHALLOWER THAN SUNDAYS SYSTEM...BUT THIS TROUGH
SHOULD STILL DRAW A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD ACROSS NM.
 FORCING FOR THIS PLUME WILL BE AIDED BY AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR SAN FRANCISCO...CA.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING...BUT THIS
SYSTEM MAY BEGIN MOVING INLAND BY EARLY THURSDAY ALLOWING SOME DRIER
AIR TO FILTER INTO NW NM. THIS DRYING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS UPPER
TROUGH...IF THE TROUGH IS DEEP ENOUGH.

SOME POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. AFTER SOME VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY...AND GOOD OR
BETTER VENTILATION MONDAY...POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE FORECAST
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY. VENTILATION LOOKS
TO IMPROVE AGAIN WEDENSDAY AND THURSDAY.

WITH ALL THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST
SUNDAY...BEFORE MONDAYS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS READINGS BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD STAY BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST CENTRAL AND
WEST WED AND THU DUE TO THE RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EXPECTED.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 040528 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
MUCH OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS WANED ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE THIS EVENING...BUT SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LINGERING NEAR KGUP...KTCC...AND KCVS.
THIS TREND FOR DECREASING COVERAGE OF STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO
THE EARLY MORNING HOURS WITH THE HIGHEST PROBABILITIES IN THE EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH 04/1000UTC. STORM MOTION WILL
BE QUITE ERRATIC WITH SOME SLOW MOVING CELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
HEFTY DOWNPOURS WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY LOWERING TO THE
MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES. GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY
STORMS. WITH STORMS HAVING MOSTLY FADED BEFORE SUNRISE
SATURDAY...A BRIEF LULL CAN THEN BE EXPECTED INTO THE LATE MORNING
HOURS. BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...NEW CUMULUS BUILD-UPS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY GROW INTO NEW SHOWERS/STORMS
SATURDAY...WITH ACTIVITY STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE WESTERN TWO
THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW
MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
PERHAPS SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER. BY NEXT WEEK...THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS AND DELIVER
A MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW PATTERN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUING. A SLIGHT DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF NOTABLE PWAT VALUES OF 1.2 ON THE 12Z
KABQ SOUNDING...INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER
AND LIMITED HEATING. THAT SAID...CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE LOW SO
TERRAIN DOMINATED CIRCULATIONS ARE THE MAIN PLAYER SO FAR.
GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS YESTERDAY ON
PINPOINTING AN AREA FOR INCREASED FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO THIS
EVENING SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH. THE 18Z HRRR DOES SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO/NORTHERN NM MOVING
SOUTHWARD...WHICH SPAWNS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE ABQ METRO THIS EVENING. RAISED POPS TO NEAR LIKELY AROUND
ABQ/SAF AND LIKELY FOR NEARBY HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY DRIFTING EAST INTO NM IS STRETCHING THE
MONSOON PLUME FROM NW TO SE OVER THE STATE. A DRY SLOT NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IS CREEPING NORTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MX AND THIS IS
AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REORIENTING THE MONSOON PLUME INTO A MORE NORTH SOUTH
POSITION SATURDAY WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. NEARLY STATIONARY STEERING FLOW...PWATS ABOVE
1.2...AND THE DRY SLOT ADVANCING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY IS A
GREAT PATTERN FOR FLASH FLOODING...IF CLOUD COVER DOESNT INHIBIT
SURFACE HEATING TOO MUCH. RAISED POPS FOR THE WEST DURING THE DAY
THEN THE CENTRAL VALLEY IN THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES
CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL DEPICT DIFFERENT STORM
COVERAGE PATTERNS. WENT NEAR CLIMO WITH POPS HIGHEST IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN.

A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL SHOWN TO ENTER THE NE
PLAINS MONDAY. THIS DRIVES A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY
RAIN FROM THE SANGRES EAST...THEN OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP ACTIVITY AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK STILL ACTIVE WITH A MORE TERRAIN FOCUSED
PATTERN TO THE CONVECTION AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND/OR SE
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL FORCE TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE ACTIVE WETTING THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY VARYING AROUND 1 TO 1.25
INCHES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SPIKING EVEN HIGHER TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DUE
TO THESE HIGH PWATS AND GENERALLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE
ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING. PWATS MAY DECREASE TO AROUND 0.75 OF AN INCH ACROSS NW
AREAS WED AND THU...BUT THESE VALUES WILL STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
WETTING RAINFALL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS
BEEN NW OF THE FOUR CORNERS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER S NM. WITH
ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS WETTING STORMS WILL FAVOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS...WHILE MOVING W TO E AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY AND WNW TO
ESE AROUND 10-20 MPH SUNDAY. FASTER MOTIONS SUNDAY WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT S OF AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
CETNRAL ROCKIES.  IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A MOIST BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY PUMPING UP PWATS EVEN MORE ACROSS THE EAST AND RECHARGING
MOISTURE ALL THE WAY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WATCH FOR A GUSTY
EAST CANYON WIND IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TUESDAY. IT LOOKS SHALLOWER THAN SUNDAYS SYSTEM...BUT THIS TROUGH
SHOULD STILL DRAW A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD ACROSS NM.
 FORCING FOR THIS PLUME WILL BE AIDED BY AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR SAN FRANCISCO...CA.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING...BUT THIS
SYSTEM MAY BEGIN MOVING INLAND BY EARLY THURSDAY ALLOWING SOME DRIER
AIR TO FILTER INTO NW NM. THIS DRYING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS UPPER
TROUGH...IF THE TROUGH IS DEEP ENOUGH.

SOME POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. AFTER SOME VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY...AND GOOD OR
BETTER VENTILATION MONDAY...POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE FORECAST
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY. VENTILATION LOOKS
TO IMPROVE AGAIN WEDENSDAY AND THURSDAY.

WITH ALL THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST
SUNDAY...BEFORE MONDAYS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS READINGS BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD STAY BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST CENTRAL AND
WEST WED AND THU DUE TO THE RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EXPECTED.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 032352
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
552 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING
SEVERAL PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON....AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING
WITH STORMS SLOWLY DIMINISHING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STORM
MOTION WILL BE QUITE ERRATIC WITH SOME SLOW MOVING CELLS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEFTY DOWNPOURS WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY
LOWERING TO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES. GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS. WITH STORMS HAVING MOSTLY FADED BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY...A BRIEF LULL CAN THEN BE EXPECTED INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...NEW CUMULUS
BUILD-UPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY GROW INTO NEW
SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY...WITH ACTIVITY STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW
MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
PERHAPS SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER. BY NEXT WEEK...THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS AND DELIVER
A MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW PATTERN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUING. A SLIGHT DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF NOTABLE PWAT VALUES OF 1.2 ON THE 12Z
KABQ SOUNDING...INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER
AND LIMITED HEATING. THAT SAID...CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE LOW SO
TERRAIN DOMINATED CIRCULATIONS ARE THE MAIN PLAYER SO FAR.
GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS YESTERDAY ON
PINPOINTING AN AREA FOR INCREASED FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO THIS
EVENING SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH. THE 18Z HRRR DOES SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO/NORTHERN NM MOVING
SOUTHWARD...WHICH SPAWNS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE ABQ METRO THIS EVENING. RAISED POPS TO NEAR LIKELY AROUND
ABQ/SAF AND LIKELY FOR NEARBY HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY DRIFTING EAST INTO NM IS STRETCHING THE
MONSOON PLUME FROM NW TO SE OVER THE STATE. A DRY SLOT NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IS CREEPING NORTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MX AND THIS IS
AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REORIENTING THE MONSOON PLUME INTO A MORE NORTH SOUTH
POSITION SATURDAY WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. NEARLY STATIONARY STEERING FLOW...PWATS ABOVE
1.2...AND THE DRY SLOT ADVANCING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY IS A
GREAT PATTERN FOR FLASH FLOODING...IF CLOUD COVER DOESNT INHIBIT
SURFACE HEATING TOO MUCH. RAISED POPS FOR THE WEST DURING THE DAY
THEN THE CENTRAL VALLEY IN THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES
CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL DEPICT DIFFERENT STORM
COVERAGE PATTERNS. WENT NEAR CLIMO WITH POPS HIGHEST IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN.

A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL SHOWN TO ENTER THE NE
PLAINS MONDAY. THIS DRIVES A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY
RAIN FROM THE SANGRES EAST...THEN OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP ACTIVITY AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK STILL ACTIVE WITH A MORE TERRAIN FOCUSED
PATTERN TO THE CONVECTION AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND/OR SE
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL FORCE TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE ACTIVE WETTING THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY VARYING AROUND 1 TO 1.25
INCHES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SPIKING EVEN HIGHER TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DUE
TO THESE HIGH PWATS AND GENERALLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE
ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING. PWATS MAY DECREASE TO AROUND 0.75 OF AN INCH ACROSS NW
AREAS WED AND THU...BUT THESE VALUES WILL STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
WETTING RAINFALL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS
BEEN NW OF THE FOUR CORNERS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER S NM. WITH
ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS WETTING STORMS WILL FAVOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS...WHILE MOVING W TO E AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY AND WNW TO
ESE AROUND 10-20 MPH SUNDAY. FASTER MOTIONS SUNDAY WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT S OF AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
CETNRAL ROCKIES.  IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A MOIST BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY PUMPING UP PWATS EVEN MORE ACROSS THE EAST AND RECHARGING
MOISTURE ALL THE WAY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WATCH FOR A GUSTY
EAST CANYON WIND IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TUESDAY. IT LOOKS SHALLOWER THAN SUNDAYS SYSTEM...BUT THIS TROUGH
SHOULD STILL DRAW A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD ACROSS NM.
 FORCING FOR THIS PLUME WILL BE AIDED BY AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR SAN FRANCISCO...CA.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING...BUT THIS
SYSTEM MAY BEGIN MOVING INLAND BY EARLY THURSDAY ALLOWING SOME DRIER
AIR TO FILTER INTO NW NM. THIS DRYING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS UPPER
TROUGH...IF THE TROUGH IS DEEP ENOUGH.

SOME POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. AFTER SOME VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY...AND GOOD OR
BETTER VENTILATION MONDAY...POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE FORECAST
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY. VENTILATION LOOKS
TO IMPROVE AGAIN WEDENSDAY AND THURSDAY.

WITH ALL THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST
SUNDAY...BEFORE MONDAYS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS READINGS BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD STAY BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST CENTRAL AND
WEST WED AND THU DUE TO THE RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EXPECTED.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 032352
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
552 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING
SEVERAL PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON....AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING
WITH STORMS SLOWLY DIMINISHING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STORM
MOTION WILL BE QUITE ERRATIC WITH SOME SLOW MOVING CELLS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEFTY DOWNPOURS WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY
LOWERING TO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES. GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS. WITH STORMS HAVING MOSTLY FADED BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY...A BRIEF LULL CAN THEN BE EXPECTED INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...NEW CUMULUS
BUILD-UPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY GROW INTO NEW
SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY...WITH ACTIVITY STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW
MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
PERHAPS SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER. BY NEXT WEEK...THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS AND DELIVER
A MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW PATTERN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUING. A SLIGHT DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF NOTABLE PWAT VALUES OF 1.2 ON THE 12Z
KABQ SOUNDING...INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER
AND LIMITED HEATING. THAT SAID...CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE LOW SO
TERRAIN DOMINATED CIRCULATIONS ARE THE MAIN PLAYER SO FAR.
GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS YESTERDAY ON
PINPOINTING AN AREA FOR INCREASED FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO THIS
EVENING SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH. THE 18Z HRRR DOES SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO/NORTHERN NM MOVING
SOUTHWARD...WHICH SPAWNS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE ABQ METRO THIS EVENING. RAISED POPS TO NEAR LIKELY AROUND
ABQ/SAF AND LIKELY FOR NEARBY HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY DRIFTING EAST INTO NM IS STRETCHING THE
MONSOON PLUME FROM NW TO SE OVER THE STATE. A DRY SLOT NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IS CREEPING NORTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MX AND THIS IS
AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REORIENTING THE MONSOON PLUME INTO A MORE NORTH SOUTH
POSITION SATURDAY WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. NEARLY STATIONARY STEERING FLOW...PWATS ABOVE
1.2...AND THE DRY SLOT ADVANCING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY IS A
GREAT PATTERN FOR FLASH FLOODING...IF CLOUD COVER DOESNT INHIBIT
SURFACE HEATING TOO MUCH. RAISED POPS FOR THE WEST DURING THE DAY
THEN THE CENTRAL VALLEY IN THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES
CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL DEPICT DIFFERENT STORM
COVERAGE PATTERNS. WENT NEAR CLIMO WITH POPS HIGHEST IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN.

A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL SHOWN TO ENTER THE NE
PLAINS MONDAY. THIS DRIVES A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY
RAIN FROM THE SANGRES EAST...THEN OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP ACTIVITY AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK STILL ACTIVE WITH A MORE TERRAIN FOCUSED
PATTERN TO THE CONVECTION AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND/OR SE
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL FORCE TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE ACTIVE WETTING THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY VARYING AROUND 1 TO 1.25
INCHES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SPIKING EVEN HIGHER TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DUE
TO THESE HIGH PWATS AND GENERALLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE
ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING. PWATS MAY DECREASE TO AROUND 0.75 OF AN INCH ACROSS NW
AREAS WED AND THU...BUT THESE VALUES WILL STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
WETTING RAINFALL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS
BEEN NW OF THE FOUR CORNERS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER S NM. WITH
ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS WETTING STORMS WILL FAVOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS...WHILE MOVING W TO E AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY AND WNW TO
ESE AROUND 10-20 MPH SUNDAY. FASTER MOTIONS SUNDAY WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT S OF AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
CETNRAL ROCKIES.  IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A MOIST BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY PUMPING UP PWATS EVEN MORE ACROSS THE EAST AND RECHARGING
MOISTURE ALL THE WAY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WATCH FOR A GUSTY
EAST CANYON WIND IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TUESDAY. IT LOOKS SHALLOWER THAN SUNDAYS SYSTEM...BUT THIS TROUGH
SHOULD STILL DRAW A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD ACROSS NM.
 FORCING FOR THIS PLUME WILL BE AIDED BY AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR SAN FRANCISCO...CA.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING...BUT THIS
SYSTEM MAY BEGIN MOVING INLAND BY EARLY THURSDAY ALLOWING SOME DRIER
AIR TO FILTER INTO NW NM. THIS DRYING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS UPPER
TROUGH...IF THE TROUGH IS DEEP ENOUGH.

SOME POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. AFTER SOME VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY...AND GOOD OR
BETTER VENTILATION MONDAY...POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE FORECAST
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY. VENTILATION LOOKS
TO IMPROVE AGAIN WEDENSDAY AND THURSDAY.

WITH ALL THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST
SUNDAY...BEFORE MONDAYS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS READINGS BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD STAY BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST CENTRAL AND
WEST WED AND THU DUE TO THE RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EXPECTED.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 032352
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
552 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING
SEVERAL PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON....AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING
WITH STORMS SLOWLY DIMINISHING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STORM
MOTION WILL BE QUITE ERRATIC WITH SOME SLOW MOVING CELLS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEFTY DOWNPOURS WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY
LOWERING TO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES. GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS. WITH STORMS HAVING MOSTLY FADED BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY...A BRIEF LULL CAN THEN BE EXPECTED INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...NEW CUMULUS
BUILD-UPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY GROW INTO NEW
SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY...WITH ACTIVITY STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW
MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
PERHAPS SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER. BY NEXT WEEK...THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS AND DELIVER
A MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW PATTERN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUING. A SLIGHT DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF NOTABLE PWAT VALUES OF 1.2 ON THE 12Z
KABQ SOUNDING...INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER
AND LIMITED HEATING. THAT SAID...CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE LOW SO
TERRAIN DOMINATED CIRCULATIONS ARE THE MAIN PLAYER SO FAR.
GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS YESTERDAY ON
PINPOINTING AN AREA FOR INCREASED FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO THIS
EVENING SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH. THE 18Z HRRR DOES SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO/NORTHERN NM MOVING
SOUTHWARD...WHICH SPAWNS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE ABQ METRO THIS EVENING. RAISED POPS TO NEAR LIKELY AROUND
ABQ/SAF AND LIKELY FOR NEARBY HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY DRIFTING EAST INTO NM IS STRETCHING THE
MONSOON PLUME FROM NW TO SE OVER THE STATE. A DRY SLOT NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IS CREEPING NORTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MX AND THIS IS
AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REORIENTING THE MONSOON PLUME INTO A MORE NORTH SOUTH
POSITION SATURDAY WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. NEARLY STATIONARY STEERING FLOW...PWATS ABOVE
1.2...AND THE DRY SLOT ADVANCING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY IS A
GREAT PATTERN FOR FLASH FLOODING...IF CLOUD COVER DOESNT INHIBIT
SURFACE HEATING TOO MUCH. RAISED POPS FOR THE WEST DURING THE DAY
THEN THE CENTRAL VALLEY IN THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES
CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL DEPICT DIFFERENT STORM
COVERAGE PATTERNS. WENT NEAR CLIMO WITH POPS HIGHEST IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN.

A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL SHOWN TO ENTER THE NE
PLAINS MONDAY. THIS DRIVES A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY
RAIN FROM THE SANGRES EAST...THEN OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP ACTIVITY AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK STILL ACTIVE WITH A MORE TERRAIN FOCUSED
PATTERN TO THE CONVECTION AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND/OR SE
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL FORCE TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE ACTIVE WETTING THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY VARYING AROUND 1 TO 1.25
INCHES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SPIKING EVEN HIGHER TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DUE
TO THESE HIGH PWATS AND GENERALLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE
ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING. PWATS MAY DECREASE TO AROUND 0.75 OF AN INCH ACROSS NW
AREAS WED AND THU...BUT THESE VALUES WILL STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
WETTING RAINFALL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS
BEEN NW OF THE FOUR CORNERS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER S NM. WITH
ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS WETTING STORMS WILL FAVOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS...WHILE MOVING W TO E AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY AND WNW TO
ESE AROUND 10-20 MPH SUNDAY. FASTER MOTIONS SUNDAY WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT S OF AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
CETNRAL ROCKIES.  IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A MOIST BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY PUMPING UP PWATS EVEN MORE ACROSS THE EAST AND RECHARGING
MOISTURE ALL THE WAY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WATCH FOR A GUSTY
EAST CANYON WIND IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TUESDAY. IT LOOKS SHALLOWER THAN SUNDAYS SYSTEM...BUT THIS TROUGH
SHOULD STILL DRAW A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD ACROSS NM.
 FORCING FOR THIS PLUME WILL BE AIDED BY AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR SAN FRANCISCO...CA.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING...BUT THIS
SYSTEM MAY BEGIN MOVING INLAND BY EARLY THURSDAY ALLOWING SOME DRIER
AIR TO FILTER INTO NW NM. THIS DRYING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS UPPER
TROUGH...IF THE TROUGH IS DEEP ENOUGH.

SOME POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. AFTER SOME VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY...AND GOOD OR
BETTER VENTILATION MONDAY...POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE FORECAST
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY. VENTILATION LOOKS
TO IMPROVE AGAIN WEDENSDAY AND THURSDAY.

WITH ALL THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST
SUNDAY...BEFORE MONDAYS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS READINGS BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD STAY BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST CENTRAL AND
WEST WED AND THU DUE TO THE RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EXPECTED.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 032352
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
552 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CURRENTLY IMPACTING
SEVERAL PARTS OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON....AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE LATE EVENING
WITH STORMS SLOWLY DIMINISHING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. STORM
MOTION WILL BE QUITE ERRATIC WITH SOME SLOW MOVING CELLS CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING HEFTY DOWNPOURS WITH CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES BRIEFLY
LOWERING TO THE MVFR/IFR CATEGORIES. GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS WILL
ALSO ACCOMPANY ANY STORMS. WITH STORMS HAVING MOSTLY FADED BY
SUNRISE SATURDAY...A BRIEF LULL CAN THEN BE EXPECTED INTO THE
LATE MORNING HOURS. BY EARLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...NEW CUMULUS
BUILD-UPS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WILL GRADUALLY GROW INTO NEW
SHOWERS/STORMS SATURDAY...WITH ACTIVITY STAYING MOSTLY OVER THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS OF NEW MEXICO.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...321 PM MDT FRI JUL 3 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW
MEXICO FOR THE REMAINDER OF THIS WEEKEND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
PERHAPS SOME FLASH FLOODING. THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL DRIFT EAST
OVER NEW MEXICO AND WEAKEN THROUGH SUNDAY. STORM MOTIONS WILL
BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY UNDER THE HIGH CENTER. BY NEXT WEEK...THE
UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO WEST TEXAS AND DELIVER
A MORE TRADITIONAL SOUTH TO NORTH MONSOON FLOW PATTERN OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
CONTINUING. A SLIGHT DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS POSSIBLE BY
LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF NOTABLE PWAT VALUES OF 1.2 ON THE 12Z
KABQ SOUNDING...INSTABILITY IS LACKING WITH LOTS OF CLOUD COVER
AND LIMITED HEATING. THAT SAID...CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE LOW SO
TERRAIN DOMINATED CIRCULATIONS ARE THE MAIN PLAYER SO FAR.
GUIDANCE IS NOT NEARLY IN AS GOOD AGREEMENT AS YESTERDAY ON
PINPOINTING AN AREA FOR INCREASED FLASH FLOOD THREAT INTO THIS
EVENING SO WILL HOLD OFF ON A WATCH. THE 18Z HRRR DOES SHOW AN
UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CO/NORTHERN NM MOVING
SOUTHWARD...WHICH SPAWNS A LARGE AREA OF STORMS SOUTHWARD INTO
THE ABQ METRO THIS EVENING. RAISED POPS TO NEAR LIKELY AROUND
ABQ/SAF AND LIKELY FOR NEARBY HIGHER TERRAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH CURRENTLY DRIFTING EAST INTO NM IS STRETCHING THE
MONSOON PLUME FROM NW TO SE OVER THE STATE. A DRY SLOT NOTED ON
WATER VAPOR IS CREEPING NORTHWESTWARD FROM NORTHERN MX AND THIS IS
AN IMPORTANT FEATURE TO WATCH FOR THE WEEKEND. OVERALL MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT REORIENTING THE MONSOON PLUME INTO A MORE NORTH SOUTH
POSITION SATURDAY WITH THE THETA-E RIDGE AXIS CENTERED ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. NEARLY STATIONARY STEERING FLOW...PWATS ABOVE
1.2...AND THE DRY SLOT ADVANCING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY IS A
GREAT PATTERN FOR FLASH FLOODING...IF CLOUD COVER DOESNT INHIBIT
SURFACE HEATING TOO MUCH. RAISED POPS FOR THE WEST DURING THE DAY
THEN THE CENTRAL VALLEY IN THE EVENING. CONFIDENCE DETERIORATES
CONSIDERABLY SUNDAY AS THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF ALL DEPICT DIFFERENT STORM
COVERAGE PATTERNS. WENT NEAR CLIMO WITH POPS HIGHEST IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN.

A STRONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS STILL SHOWN TO ENTER THE NE
PLAINS MONDAY. THIS DRIVES A LARGE AREA OF CONVECTION WITH HEAVY
RAIN FROM THE SANGRES EAST...THEN OVER MUCH OF THE PLAINS MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL FOR THE ENTIRE AREA WITH ABUNDANT
MOISTURE...CLOUD COVER...AND PRECIP ACTIVITY AROUND THROUGH TUESDAY.
THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK STILL ACTIVE WITH A MORE TERRAIN FOCUSED
PATTERN TO THE CONVECTION AS THE UPPER HIGH BUILDS SOUTH AND/OR SE
OF THE STATE. THIS WILL FORCE TEMPS BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR EARLY
JULY.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE ACTIVE WETTING THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 7
DAYS. PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ALREADY VARYING AROUND 1 TO 1.25
INCHES WILL REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SPIKING EVEN HIGHER TO
AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS EASTERN AREAS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. DUE
TO THESE HIGH PWATS AND GENERALLY SLOW STORM MOTIONS THAT ARE
ANTICIPATED...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH
FLOODING. PWATS MAY DECREASE TO AROUND 0.75 OF AN INCH ACROSS NW
AREAS WED AND THU...BUT THESE VALUES WILL STILL BE HIGH ENOUGH FOR
WETTING RAINFALL.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER THAT HAS
BEEN NW OF THE FOUR CORNERS IS PROGGED TO SHIFT OVER S NM. WITH
ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS WETTING STORMS WILL FAVOR NORTHERN AND WESTERN
AREAS...WHILE MOVING W TO E AROUND 5 TO 15 MPH SATURDAY AND WNW TO
ESE AROUND 10-20 MPH SUNDAY. FASTER MOTIONS SUNDAY WILL BE IN
RESPONSE TO STRONGER WINDS ALOFT S OF AN UPPER TROUGH CROSSING THE
CETNRAL ROCKIES.  IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH...A MOIST BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO PLUNGE SOUTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE AREA
MONDAY PUMPING UP PWATS EVEN MORE ACROSS THE EAST AND RECHARGING
MOISTURE ALL THE WAY TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WATCH FOR A GUSTY
EAST CANYON WIND IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
INTO THE NIGHT.

ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
TUESDAY. IT LOOKS SHALLOWER THAN SUNDAYS SYSTEM...BUT THIS TROUGH
SHOULD STILL DRAW A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME NORTHWARD ACROSS NM.
 FORCING FOR THIS PLUME WILL BE AIDED BY AN UNSEASONABLY DEEP CUTOFF
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED NEAR SAN FRANCISCO...CA.
GFS AND ECMWF ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING...BUT THIS
SYSTEM MAY BEGIN MOVING INLAND BY EARLY THURSDAY ALLOWING SOME DRIER
AIR TO FILTER INTO NW NM. THIS DRYING ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
COULD DEVELOP AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY IN THE WAKE OF TUESDAYS UPPER
TROUGH...IF THE TROUGH IS DEEP ENOUGH.

SOME POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
SATURDAY. AFTER SOME VENTILATION IMPROVEMENT SUNDAY...AND GOOD OR
BETTER VENTILATION MONDAY...POCKETS OF POOR VENTILATION ARE FORECAST
TO REDEVELOP ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS TUESDAY. VENTILATION LOOKS
TO IMPROVE AGAIN WEDENSDAY AND THURSDAY.

WITH ALL THE MOISTURE IN PLACE...HIGH TEMPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL
SATURDAY. READINGS SHOULD WARM TO NEAR NORMAL ACROSS THE EAST
SUNDAY...BEFORE MONDAYS BACK DOOR COLD FRONT DROPS READINGS BELOW
NORMAL AGAIN. READINGS SHOULD STAY BELOW NORMAL AT LEAST CENTRAL AND
WEST WED AND THU DUE TO THE RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME EXPECTED.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




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