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000
FXUS65 KABQ 310543 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS
OF NW NM. THE FORMER IS MOVING TOWARD THE N AND NE AND THE LATTER
IS MOVING TOWARD THE W AND NW. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NW SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT LIKE LAST NIGHT...THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EAST MAY PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. SHOULD
STORMS DIMINISH EARLIER...COULD SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NE PLAINS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF NE NM. STEERING
FLOW WILL BE LIGHT...PERHAPS LIGHTER THAN TODAY AS THE UPPER HIGH
REMAINS OVERHEAD. MVFR CIGS AND BRIEF MT OBSCURATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRI AFTN.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...906 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED POP/WEATHER GROUPINGS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FOR REST OF
TONIGHT. ALSO UPDATED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BY ELIMINATING
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TO A
CERTAIN DEGREE MODELING SHOWS THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. THUS LEFT THE WATCH UP THERE. MODELS SEEM TO
BE OVERDOING CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS DESPITE SOME
FOCUSING WAVE FEATURES. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BACK OFF QPF NUMBERS
ACROSS SW/WC HIGHLANDS ALTHOUGH THERE IS A WAVE POISED TO IMPACT
THOSE AREAS TONIGHT. SUSPECT THE RAINFALL WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM
WITH LESS OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SIMILARLY FOR NW AREAS WHERE
THERE IS SOME ONGOING RAINFALL WITHIN A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
AREA. VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT SO IT DOESNT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE A
RAIN SHOWER.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...240 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS SLOW-MOVING STORMS DROP A QUICK 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN. AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...BURNED FORESTS...URBAN
DRAINAGES...AND AREAS THAT PICK UP DAILY ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. A VERY SLOW DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY DELIVERING AS WE NEAR THE END OF JULY
2015. A REMNANT CONVECTIVE VORTEX FROM LAST NIGHT MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH ALONG THE CONT DVD IS FOCUSING REDEVELOPMENT TODAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS FIRING UP FROM LINCOLN COUNTY NORTH
INTO TORRANCE COUNTY WHERE RADAR-BASED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION IS
ALREADY NEAR 3 INCHES IN SOME LOCALES. THE WEAKEST STEERING FLOW
IS FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN NM WHERE DEFORMATION STRETCHES FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY AND PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ALL THESE AREAS ARE
UNDER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE. SOME
MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG TRIBUTARIES TO MAIN
STEM RIVERS SUCH AS THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CHANGE FRIDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS A GREATER FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FARTHER NORTHWEST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS
WEEKEND WILL SEE ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AS THE UPPER HIGH
ESTABLISHES FIRMLY OVERHEAD. EACH AFTERNOON OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE SAME AREAS WILL EXACERBATE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE NOTED. THE
RECYCLING PROCESS WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER...WHICH WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT. NASA SPORT LIS SHOWS MOIST SOILS ARE EXPANDING OVER A
LARGER AREA OF NM AND TO DEEPER LAYERS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ARE
LOOKING VERY TYPICAL OF A MATURE MONSOON PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
AUGUST.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH CENTER ATTEMPTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON...AND MODELS PERSIST ON IT LINGERING OVER THE STATE
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY TO WOBBLE
AROUND A BIT. MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT
SHOULD VERY SLOWLY WARM AND DRY NEXT WEEK. CELL MOTION COULD BE
SOMEWHAT ERRATIC FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT
GENERALLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH WEST OF THE RGV AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST
EAST OF THE RGV. MOVEMENT AND SPEED WILL TREND TO SLOWER AND MORE
ERRATIC FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD.
THEREFORE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TO VARY FROM MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY
TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MIN RH
VALUES WILL TREND DOWNWARD NEXT WEEK...OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES FORECAST
TO REMAIN EXCELLENT.

VENT RATES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH WILL BE FAIR TO POOR THROUGH
SUNDAY. POOR RATES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-523-527>537.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 310543 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS
OF NW NM. THE FORMER IS MOVING TOWARD THE N AND NE AND THE LATTER
IS MOVING TOWARD THE W AND NW. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NW SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT LIKE LAST NIGHT...THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EAST MAY PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. SHOULD
STORMS DIMINISH EARLIER...COULD SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NE PLAINS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF NE NM. STEERING
FLOW WILL BE LIGHT...PERHAPS LIGHTER THAN TODAY AS THE UPPER HIGH
REMAINS OVERHEAD. MVFR CIGS AND BRIEF MT OBSCURATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRI AFTN.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...906 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED POP/WEATHER GROUPINGS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FOR REST OF
TONIGHT. ALSO UPDATED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BY ELIMINATING
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TO A
CERTAIN DEGREE MODELING SHOWS THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. THUS LEFT THE WATCH UP THERE. MODELS SEEM TO
BE OVERDOING CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS DESPITE SOME
FOCUSING WAVE FEATURES. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BACK OFF QPF NUMBERS
ACROSS SW/WC HIGHLANDS ALTHOUGH THERE IS A WAVE POISED TO IMPACT
THOSE AREAS TONIGHT. SUSPECT THE RAINFALL WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM
WITH LESS OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SIMILARLY FOR NW AREAS WHERE
THERE IS SOME ONGOING RAINFALL WITHIN A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
AREA. VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT SO IT DOESNT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE A
RAIN SHOWER.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...240 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS SLOW-MOVING STORMS DROP A QUICK 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN. AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...BURNED FORESTS...URBAN
DRAINAGES...AND AREAS THAT PICK UP DAILY ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. A VERY SLOW DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY DELIVERING AS WE NEAR THE END OF JULY
2015. A REMNANT CONVECTIVE VORTEX FROM LAST NIGHT MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH ALONG THE CONT DVD IS FOCUSING REDEVELOPMENT TODAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS FIRING UP FROM LINCOLN COUNTY NORTH
INTO TORRANCE COUNTY WHERE RADAR-BASED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION IS
ALREADY NEAR 3 INCHES IN SOME LOCALES. THE WEAKEST STEERING FLOW
IS FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN NM WHERE DEFORMATION STRETCHES FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY AND PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ALL THESE AREAS ARE
UNDER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE. SOME
MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG TRIBUTARIES TO MAIN
STEM RIVERS SUCH AS THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CHANGE FRIDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS A GREATER FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FARTHER NORTHWEST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS
WEEKEND WILL SEE ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AS THE UPPER HIGH
ESTABLISHES FIRMLY OVERHEAD. EACH AFTERNOON OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE SAME AREAS WILL EXACERBATE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE NOTED. THE
RECYCLING PROCESS WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER...WHICH WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT. NASA SPORT LIS SHOWS MOIST SOILS ARE EXPANDING OVER A
LARGER AREA OF NM AND TO DEEPER LAYERS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ARE
LOOKING VERY TYPICAL OF A MATURE MONSOON PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
AUGUST.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH CENTER ATTEMPTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON...AND MODELS PERSIST ON IT LINGERING OVER THE STATE
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY TO WOBBLE
AROUND A BIT. MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT
SHOULD VERY SLOWLY WARM AND DRY NEXT WEEK. CELL MOTION COULD BE
SOMEWHAT ERRATIC FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT
GENERALLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH WEST OF THE RGV AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST
EAST OF THE RGV. MOVEMENT AND SPEED WILL TREND TO SLOWER AND MORE
ERRATIC FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD.
THEREFORE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TO VARY FROM MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY
TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MIN RH
VALUES WILL TREND DOWNWARD NEXT WEEK...OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES FORECAST
TO REMAIN EXCELLENT.

VENT RATES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH WILL BE FAIR TO POOR THROUGH
SUNDAY. POOR RATES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-523-527>537.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 310543 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS
OF NW NM. THE FORMER IS MOVING TOWARD THE N AND NE AND THE LATTER
IS MOVING TOWARD THE W AND NW. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NW SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT LIKE LAST NIGHT...THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EAST MAY PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. SHOULD
STORMS DIMINISH EARLIER...COULD SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NE PLAINS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF NE NM. STEERING
FLOW WILL BE LIGHT...PERHAPS LIGHTER THAN TODAY AS THE UPPER HIGH
REMAINS OVERHEAD. MVFR CIGS AND BRIEF MT OBSCURATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRI AFTN.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...906 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED POP/WEATHER GROUPINGS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FOR REST OF
TONIGHT. ALSO UPDATED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BY ELIMINATING
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TO A
CERTAIN DEGREE MODELING SHOWS THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. THUS LEFT THE WATCH UP THERE. MODELS SEEM TO
BE OVERDOING CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS DESPITE SOME
FOCUSING WAVE FEATURES. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BACK OFF QPF NUMBERS
ACROSS SW/WC HIGHLANDS ALTHOUGH THERE IS A WAVE POISED TO IMPACT
THOSE AREAS TONIGHT. SUSPECT THE RAINFALL WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM
WITH LESS OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SIMILARLY FOR NW AREAS WHERE
THERE IS SOME ONGOING RAINFALL WITHIN A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
AREA. VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT SO IT DOESNT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE A
RAIN SHOWER.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...240 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS SLOW-MOVING STORMS DROP A QUICK 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN. AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...BURNED FORESTS...URBAN
DRAINAGES...AND AREAS THAT PICK UP DAILY ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. A VERY SLOW DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY DELIVERING AS WE NEAR THE END OF JULY
2015. A REMNANT CONVECTIVE VORTEX FROM LAST NIGHT MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH ALONG THE CONT DVD IS FOCUSING REDEVELOPMENT TODAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS FIRING UP FROM LINCOLN COUNTY NORTH
INTO TORRANCE COUNTY WHERE RADAR-BASED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION IS
ALREADY NEAR 3 INCHES IN SOME LOCALES. THE WEAKEST STEERING FLOW
IS FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN NM WHERE DEFORMATION STRETCHES FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY AND PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ALL THESE AREAS ARE
UNDER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE. SOME
MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG TRIBUTARIES TO MAIN
STEM RIVERS SUCH AS THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CHANGE FRIDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS A GREATER FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FARTHER NORTHWEST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS
WEEKEND WILL SEE ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AS THE UPPER HIGH
ESTABLISHES FIRMLY OVERHEAD. EACH AFTERNOON OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE SAME AREAS WILL EXACERBATE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE NOTED. THE
RECYCLING PROCESS WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER...WHICH WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT. NASA SPORT LIS SHOWS MOIST SOILS ARE EXPANDING OVER A
LARGER AREA OF NM AND TO DEEPER LAYERS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ARE
LOOKING VERY TYPICAL OF A MATURE MONSOON PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
AUGUST.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH CENTER ATTEMPTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON...AND MODELS PERSIST ON IT LINGERING OVER THE STATE
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY TO WOBBLE
AROUND A BIT. MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT
SHOULD VERY SLOWLY WARM AND DRY NEXT WEEK. CELL MOTION COULD BE
SOMEWHAT ERRATIC FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT
GENERALLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH WEST OF THE RGV AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST
EAST OF THE RGV. MOVEMENT AND SPEED WILL TREND TO SLOWER AND MORE
ERRATIC FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD.
THEREFORE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TO VARY FROM MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY
TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MIN RH
VALUES WILL TREND DOWNWARD NEXT WEEK...OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES FORECAST
TO REMAIN EXCELLENT.

VENT RATES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH WILL BE FAIR TO POOR THROUGH
SUNDAY. POOR RATES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-523-527>537.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 310543 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS
OF NW NM. THE FORMER IS MOVING TOWARD THE N AND NE AND THE LATTER
IS MOVING TOWARD THE W AND NW. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NW SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT LIKE LAST NIGHT...THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EAST MAY PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. SHOULD
STORMS DIMINISH EARLIER...COULD SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NE PLAINS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF NE NM. STEERING
FLOW WILL BE LIGHT...PERHAPS LIGHTER THAN TODAY AS THE UPPER HIGH
REMAINS OVERHEAD. MVFR CIGS AND BRIEF MT OBSCURATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRI AFTN.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...906 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED POP/WEATHER GROUPINGS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FOR REST OF
TONIGHT. ALSO UPDATED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BY ELIMINATING
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TO A
CERTAIN DEGREE MODELING SHOWS THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. THUS LEFT THE WATCH UP THERE. MODELS SEEM TO
BE OVERDOING CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS DESPITE SOME
FOCUSING WAVE FEATURES. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BACK OFF QPF NUMBERS
ACROSS SW/WC HIGHLANDS ALTHOUGH THERE IS A WAVE POISED TO IMPACT
THOSE AREAS TONIGHT. SUSPECT THE RAINFALL WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM
WITH LESS OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SIMILARLY FOR NW AREAS WHERE
THERE IS SOME ONGOING RAINFALL WITHIN A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
AREA. VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT SO IT DOESNT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE A
RAIN SHOWER.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...240 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS SLOW-MOVING STORMS DROP A QUICK 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN. AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...BURNED FORESTS...URBAN
DRAINAGES...AND AREAS THAT PICK UP DAILY ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. A VERY SLOW DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY DELIVERING AS WE NEAR THE END OF JULY
2015. A REMNANT CONVECTIVE VORTEX FROM LAST NIGHT MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH ALONG THE CONT DVD IS FOCUSING REDEVELOPMENT TODAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS FIRING UP FROM LINCOLN COUNTY NORTH
INTO TORRANCE COUNTY WHERE RADAR-BASED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION IS
ALREADY NEAR 3 INCHES IN SOME LOCALES. THE WEAKEST STEERING FLOW
IS FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN NM WHERE DEFORMATION STRETCHES FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY AND PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ALL THESE AREAS ARE
UNDER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE. SOME
MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG TRIBUTARIES TO MAIN
STEM RIVERS SUCH AS THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CHANGE FRIDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS A GREATER FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FARTHER NORTHWEST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS
WEEKEND WILL SEE ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AS THE UPPER HIGH
ESTABLISHES FIRMLY OVERHEAD. EACH AFTERNOON OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE SAME AREAS WILL EXACERBATE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE NOTED. THE
RECYCLING PROCESS WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER...WHICH WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT. NASA SPORT LIS SHOWS MOIST SOILS ARE EXPANDING OVER A
LARGER AREA OF NM AND TO DEEPER LAYERS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ARE
LOOKING VERY TYPICAL OF A MATURE MONSOON PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
AUGUST.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH CENTER ATTEMPTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON...AND MODELS PERSIST ON IT LINGERING OVER THE STATE
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY TO WOBBLE
AROUND A BIT. MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT
SHOULD VERY SLOWLY WARM AND DRY NEXT WEEK. CELL MOTION COULD BE
SOMEWHAT ERRATIC FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT
GENERALLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH WEST OF THE RGV AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST
EAST OF THE RGV. MOVEMENT AND SPEED WILL TREND TO SLOWER AND MORE
ERRATIC FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD.
THEREFORE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TO VARY FROM MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY
TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MIN RH
VALUES WILL TREND DOWNWARD NEXT WEEK...OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES FORECAST
TO REMAIN EXCELLENT.

VENT RATES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH WILL BE FAIR TO POOR THROUGH
SUNDAY. POOR RATES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-523-527>537.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 310543 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
SHRA/TSRA CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PORTIONS
OF NW NM. THE FORMER IS MOVING TOWARD THE N AND NE AND THE LATTER
IS MOVING TOWARD THE W AND NW. THE ACTIVITY ACROSS THE NW SHOULD
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER COUPLE OF HOURS...BUT LIKE LAST NIGHT...THE
ACTIVITY ACROSS THE EAST MAY PERSIST THROUGH SUNRISE. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY. SHOULD
STORMS DIMINISH EARLIER...COULD SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE NE PLAINS. ANOTHER ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA IS EXPECTED ON
FRIDAY FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF NE NM. STEERING
FLOW WILL BE LIGHT...PERHAPS LIGHTER THAN TODAY AS THE UPPER HIGH
REMAINS OVERHEAD. MVFR CIGS AND BRIEF MT OBSCURATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE FRI AFTN.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...906 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED POP/WEATHER GROUPINGS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FOR REST OF
TONIGHT. ALSO UPDATED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BY ELIMINATING
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TO A
CERTAIN DEGREE MODELING SHOWS THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. THUS LEFT THE WATCH UP THERE. MODELS SEEM TO
BE OVERDOING CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS DESPITE SOME
FOCUSING WAVE FEATURES. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BACK OFF QPF NUMBERS
ACROSS SW/WC HIGHLANDS ALTHOUGH THERE IS A WAVE POISED TO IMPACT
THOSE AREAS TONIGHT. SUSPECT THE RAINFALL WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM
WITH LESS OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SIMILARLY FOR NW AREAS WHERE
THERE IS SOME ONGOING RAINFALL WITHIN A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
AREA. VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT SO IT DOESNT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE A
RAIN SHOWER.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...240 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS SLOW-MOVING STORMS DROP A QUICK 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN. AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...BURNED FORESTS...URBAN
DRAINAGES...AND AREAS THAT PICK UP DAILY ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. A VERY SLOW DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY DELIVERING AS WE NEAR THE END OF JULY
2015. A REMNANT CONVECTIVE VORTEX FROM LAST NIGHT MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH ALONG THE CONT DVD IS FOCUSING REDEVELOPMENT TODAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS FIRING UP FROM LINCOLN COUNTY NORTH
INTO TORRANCE COUNTY WHERE RADAR-BASED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION IS
ALREADY NEAR 3 INCHES IN SOME LOCALES. THE WEAKEST STEERING FLOW
IS FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN NM WHERE DEFORMATION STRETCHES FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY AND PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ALL THESE AREAS ARE
UNDER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE. SOME
MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG TRIBUTARIES TO MAIN
STEM RIVERS SUCH AS THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CHANGE FRIDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS A GREATER FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FARTHER NORTHWEST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS
WEEKEND WILL SEE ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AS THE UPPER HIGH
ESTABLISHES FIRMLY OVERHEAD. EACH AFTERNOON OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE SAME AREAS WILL EXACERBATE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE NOTED. THE
RECYCLING PROCESS WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER...WHICH WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT. NASA SPORT LIS SHOWS MOIST SOILS ARE EXPANDING OVER A
LARGER AREA OF NM AND TO DEEPER LAYERS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ARE
LOOKING VERY TYPICAL OF A MATURE MONSOON PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
AUGUST.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH CENTER ATTEMPTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON...AND MODELS PERSIST ON IT LINGERING OVER THE STATE
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY TO WOBBLE
AROUND A BIT. MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT
SHOULD VERY SLOWLY WARM AND DRY NEXT WEEK. CELL MOTION COULD BE
SOMEWHAT ERRATIC FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT
GENERALLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH WEST OF THE RGV AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST
EAST OF THE RGV. MOVEMENT AND SPEED WILL TREND TO SLOWER AND MORE
ERRATIC FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD.
THEREFORE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TO VARY FROM MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY
TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MIN RH
VALUES WILL TREND DOWNWARD NEXT WEEK...OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES FORECAST
TO REMAIN EXCELLENT.

VENT RATES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH WILL BE FAIR TO POOR THROUGH
SUNDAY. POOR RATES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-523-527>537.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 310306 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
906 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED POP/WEATHER GROUPINGS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FOR REST OF
TONIGHT. ALSO UPDATED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BY ELIMINATING
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TO A
CERTAIN DEGREE MODELING SHOWS THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. THUS LEFT THE WATCH UP THERE. MODELS SEEM TO
BE OVERDOING CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS DESPITE SOME
FOCUSING WAVE FEATURES. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BACK OFF QPF NUMBERS
ACROSS SW/WC HIGHLANDS ALTHOUGH THERE IS A WAVE POISED TO IMPACT
THOSE AREAS TONIGHT. SUSPECT THE RAINFALL WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM
WITH LESS OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SIMILARLY FOR NW AREAS WHERE
THERE IS SOME ONGOING RAINFALL WITHIN A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
AREA. VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT SO IT DOESNT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE A
RAIN SHOWER.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...555 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
THOUGH A LATER START...SHRA/TSRA ARE DEVELOPING NOW ACROSS MUCH OF
NM. STORM MOTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE TOWARD THE N OR NW ACROSS
WESTERN NM...WITH MORE N TO NE MOTION ELSEWHERE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS WILL HELP DRIVE NEW DEVELOPMENT. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN HEAVY RAIN. SHOULD STORMS
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT...COULD SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS...HOWEVER...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE UPPER HIGH OVER NE NM WILL
KEEP CONVECTION GOING OR REDEVELOPING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...240 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS SLOW-MOVING STORMS DROP A QUICK 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN. AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...BURNED FORESTS...URBAN
DRAINAGES...AND AREAS THAT PICK UP DAILY ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. A VERY SLOW DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY DELIVERING AS WE NEAR THE END OF JULY
2015. A REMNANT CONVECTIVE VORTEX FROM LAST NIGHT MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH ALONG THE CONT DVD IS FOCUSING REDEVELOPMENT TODAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS FIRING UP FROM LINCOLN COUNTY NORTH
INTO TORRANCE COUNTY WHERE RADAR-BASED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION IS
ALREADY NEAR 3 INCHES IN SOME LOCALES. THE WEAKEST STEERING FLOW
IS FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN NM WHERE DEFORMATION STRETCHES FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY AND PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ALL THESE AREAS ARE
UNDER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE. SOME
MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG TRIBUTARIES TO MAIN
STEM RIVERS SUCH AS THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CHANGE FRIDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS A GREATER FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FARTHER NORTHWEST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS
WEEKEND WILL SEE ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AS THE UPPER HIGH
ESTABLISHES FIRMLY OVERHEAD. EACH AFTERNOON OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE SAME AREAS WILL EXACERBATE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE NOTED. THE
RECYCLING PROCESS WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER...WHICH WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT. NASA SPORT LIS SHOWS MOIST SOILS ARE EXPANDING OVER A
LARGER AREA OF NM AND TO DEEPER LAYERS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ARE
LOOKING VERY TYPICAL OF A MATURE MONSOON PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
AUGUST.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH CENTER ATTEMPTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON...AND MODELS PERSIST ON IT LINGERING OVER THE STATE
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY TO WOBBLE
AROUND A BIT. MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT
SHOULD VERY SLOWLY WARM AND DRY NEXT WEEK. CELL MOTION COULD BE
SOMEWHAT ERRATIC FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT
GENERALLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH WEST OF THE RGV AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST
EAST OF THE RGV. MOVEMENT AND SPEED WILL TREND TO SLOWER AND MORE
ERRATIC FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD.
THEREFORE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TO VARY FROM MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY
TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MIN RH
VALUES WILL TREND DOWNWARD NEXT WEEK...OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES FORECAST
TO REMAIN EXCELLENT.

VENT RATES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH WILL BE FAIR TO POOR THROUGH
SUNDAY. POOR RATES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-523-527>537.

&&

$$

50



000
FXUS65 KABQ 310306 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
906 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED POP/WEATHER GROUPINGS IN THE GRIDDED FORECAST FOR REST OF
TONIGHT. ALSO UPDATED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH BY ELIMINATING
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE IMAGERY AND TO A
CERTAIN DEGREE MODELING SHOWS THE MAIN THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN
ACROSS EASTERN AREAS. THUS LEFT THE WATCH UP THERE. MODELS SEEM TO
BE OVERDOING CONDITIONS ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS DESPITE SOME
FOCUSING WAVE FEATURES. THE LATEST HRRR HAS BACK OFF QPF NUMBERS
ACROSS SW/WC HIGHLANDS ALTHOUGH THERE IS A WAVE POISED TO IMPACT
THOSE AREAS TONIGHT. SUSPECT THE RAINFALL WILL BE MORE STRATIFORM
WITH LESS OF A HEAVY RAIN THREAT. SIMILARLY FOR NW AREAS WHERE
THERE IS SOME ONGOING RAINFALL WITHIN A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION
AREA. VERY MOIST ENVIRONMENT SO IT DOESNT TAKE MUCH TO PRODUCE A
RAIN SHOWER.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...555 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
THOUGH A LATER START...SHRA/TSRA ARE DEVELOPING NOW ACROSS MUCH OF
NM. STORM MOTIONS WILL GENERALLY BE TOWARD THE N OR NW ACROSS
WESTERN NM...WITH MORE N TO NE MOTION ELSEWHERE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS WILL HELP DRIVE NEW DEVELOPMENT. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN HEAVY RAIN. SHOULD STORMS
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT...COULD SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS...HOWEVER...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE UPPER HIGH OVER NE NM WILL
KEEP CONVECTION GOING OR REDEVELOPING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...240 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS SLOW-MOVING STORMS DROP A QUICK 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN. AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...BURNED FORESTS...URBAN
DRAINAGES...AND AREAS THAT PICK UP DAILY ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. A VERY SLOW DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY DELIVERING AS WE NEAR THE END OF JULY
2015. A REMNANT CONVECTIVE VORTEX FROM LAST NIGHT MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH ALONG THE CONT DVD IS FOCUSING REDEVELOPMENT TODAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS FIRING UP FROM LINCOLN COUNTY NORTH
INTO TORRANCE COUNTY WHERE RADAR-BASED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION IS
ALREADY NEAR 3 INCHES IN SOME LOCALES. THE WEAKEST STEERING FLOW
IS FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN NM WHERE DEFORMATION STRETCHES FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY AND PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ALL THESE AREAS ARE
UNDER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE. SOME
MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG TRIBUTARIES TO MAIN
STEM RIVERS SUCH AS THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CHANGE FRIDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS A GREATER FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FARTHER NORTHWEST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS
WEEKEND WILL SEE ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AS THE UPPER HIGH
ESTABLISHES FIRMLY OVERHEAD. EACH AFTERNOON OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE SAME AREAS WILL EXACERBATE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE NOTED. THE
RECYCLING PROCESS WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER...WHICH WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT. NASA SPORT LIS SHOWS MOIST SOILS ARE EXPANDING OVER A
LARGER AREA OF NM AND TO DEEPER LAYERS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ARE
LOOKING VERY TYPICAL OF A MATURE MONSOON PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
AUGUST.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH CENTER ATTEMPTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON...AND MODELS PERSIST ON IT LINGERING OVER THE STATE
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY TO WOBBLE
AROUND A BIT. MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT
SHOULD VERY SLOWLY WARM AND DRY NEXT WEEK. CELL MOTION COULD BE
SOMEWHAT ERRATIC FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT
GENERALLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH WEST OF THE RGV AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST
EAST OF THE RGV. MOVEMENT AND SPEED WILL TREND TO SLOWER AND MORE
ERRATIC FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD.
THEREFORE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TO VARY FROM MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY
TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MIN RH
VALUES WILL TREND DOWNWARD NEXT WEEK...OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES FORECAST
TO REMAIN EXCELLENT.

VENT RATES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH WILL BE FAIR TO POOR THROUGH
SUNDAY. POOR RATES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-523-527>537.

&&

$$

50




000
FXUS65 KABQ 302355 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
555 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
THOUGH A LATER START...SHRA/TSRA ARE DEVELOPING NOW ACROSS MUCH OF
NM. STORM MOIONS WILL GENERALLY BE TOWARD THE N OR NW ACROSS
WESTERN NM...WITH MORE N TO NE MOTION ELSEWHERE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS WILL HELP DRIVE NEW DEVELOPMENT. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN HEAVY RAIN. SHOULD STORMS
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT...COULD SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS...HOWEVER...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE UPPER HIGH OVER NE NM WILL
KEEP CONVECTION GOING OR REDEVELOPING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...240 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS SLOW-MOVING STORMS DROP A QUICK 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN. AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...BURNED FORESTS...URBAN
DRAINAGES...AND AREAS THAT PICK UP DAILY ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. A VERY SLOW DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY DELIVERING AS WE NEAR THE END OF JULY
2015. A REMNANT CONVECTIVE VORTEX FROM LAST NIGHT MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH ALONG THE CONT DVD IS FOCUSING REDEVELOPMENT TODAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS FIRING UP FROM LINCOLN COUNTY NORTH
INTO TORRANCE COUNTY WHERE RADAR-BASED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION IS
ALREADY NEAR 3 INCHES IN SOME LOCALES. THE WEAKEST STEERING FLOW
IS FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN NM WHERE DEFORMATION STRETCHES FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY AND PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ALL THESE AREAS ARE
UNDER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE. SOME
MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG TRIBUTARIES TO MAIN
STEM RIVERS SUCH AS THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CHANGE FRIDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS A GREATER FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FARTHER NORTHWEST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS
WEEKEND WILL SEE ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AS THE UPPER HIGH
ESTABLISHES FIRMLY OVERHEAD. EACH AFTERNOON OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE SAME AREAS WILL EXACERBATE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE NOTED. THE
RECYCLING PROCESS WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER...WHICH WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT. NASA SPORT LIS SHOWS MOIST SOILS ARE EXPANDING OVER A
LARGER AREA OF NM AND TO DEEPER LAYERS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ARE
LOOKING VERY TYPICAL OF A MATURE MONSOON PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
AUGUST.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH CENTER ATTEMPTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON...AND MODELS PERSIST ON IT LINGERING OVER THE STATE
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY TO WOBBLE
AROUND A BIT. MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT
SHOULD VERY SLOWLY WARM AND DRY NEXT WEEK. CELL MOTION COULD BE
SOMEWHAT ERRATIC FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT
GENERALLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH WEST OF THE RGV AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST
EAST OF THE RGV. MOVEMENT AND SPEED WILL TREND TO SLOWER AND MORE
ERRATIC FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD.
THEREFORE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TO VARY FROM MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY
TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MIN RH
VALUES WILL TREND DOWNWARD NEXT WEEK...OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES FORECAST
TO REMAIN EXCELLENT.

VENT RATES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH WILL BE FAIR TO POOR THROUGH
SUNDAY. POOR RATES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>537.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 302355 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
555 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
THOUGH A LATER START...SHRA/TSRA ARE DEVELOPING NOW ACROSS MUCH OF
NM. STORM MOIONS WILL GENERALLY BE TOWARD THE N OR NW ACROSS
WESTERN NM...WITH MORE N TO NE MOTION ELSEWHERE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS WILL HELP DRIVE NEW DEVELOPMENT. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN HEAVY RAIN. SHOULD STORMS
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT...COULD SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS...HOWEVER...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE UPPER HIGH OVER NE NM WILL
KEEP CONVECTION GOING OR REDEVELOPING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...240 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS SLOW-MOVING STORMS DROP A QUICK 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN. AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...BURNED FORESTS...URBAN
DRAINAGES...AND AREAS THAT PICK UP DAILY ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. A VERY SLOW DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY DELIVERING AS WE NEAR THE END OF JULY
2015. A REMNANT CONVECTIVE VORTEX FROM LAST NIGHT MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH ALONG THE CONT DVD IS FOCUSING REDEVELOPMENT TODAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS FIRING UP FROM LINCOLN COUNTY NORTH
INTO TORRANCE COUNTY WHERE RADAR-BASED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION IS
ALREADY NEAR 3 INCHES IN SOME LOCALES. THE WEAKEST STEERING FLOW
IS FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN NM WHERE DEFORMATION STRETCHES FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY AND PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ALL THESE AREAS ARE
UNDER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE. SOME
MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG TRIBUTARIES TO MAIN
STEM RIVERS SUCH AS THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CHANGE FRIDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS A GREATER FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FARTHER NORTHWEST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS
WEEKEND WILL SEE ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AS THE UPPER HIGH
ESTABLISHES FIRMLY OVERHEAD. EACH AFTERNOON OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE SAME AREAS WILL EXACERBATE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE NOTED. THE
RECYCLING PROCESS WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER...WHICH WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT. NASA SPORT LIS SHOWS MOIST SOILS ARE EXPANDING OVER A
LARGER AREA OF NM AND TO DEEPER LAYERS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ARE
LOOKING VERY TYPICAL OF A MATURE MONSOON PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
AUGUST.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH CENTER ATTEMPTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON...AND MODELS PERSIST ON IT LINGERING OVER THE STATE
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY TO WOBBLE
AROUND A BIT. MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT
SHOULD VERY SLOWLY WARM AND DRY NEXT WEEK. CELL MOTION COULD BE
SOMEWHAT ERRATIC FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT
GENERALLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH WEST OF THE RGV AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST
EAST OF THE RGV. MOVEMENT AND SPEED WILL TREND TO SLOWER AND MORE
ERRATIC FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD.
THEREFORE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TO VARY FROM MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY
TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MIN RH
VALUES WILL TREND DOWNWARD NEXT WEEK...OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES FORECAST
TO REMAIN EXCELLENT.

VENT RATES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH WILL BE FAIR TO POOR THROUGH
SUNDAY. POOR RATES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>537.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 302355 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
555 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
THOUGH A LATER START...SHRA/TSRA ARE DEVELOPING NOW ACROSS MUCH OF
NM. STORM MOIONS WILL GENERALLY BE TOWARD THE N OR NW ACROSS
WESTERN NM...WITH MORE N TO NE MOTION ELSEWHERE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS WILL HELP DRIVE NEW DEVELOPMENT. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN HEAVY RAIN. SHOULD STORMS
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT...COULD SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS...HOWEVER...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE UPPER HIGH OVER NE NM WILL
KEEP CONVECTION GOING OR REDEVELOPING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...240 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS SLOW-MOVING STORMS DROP A QUICK 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN. AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...BURNED FORESTS...URBAN
DRAINAGES...AND AREAS THAT PICK UP DAILY ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. A VERY SLOW DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY DELIVERING AS WE NEAR THE END OF JULY
2015. A REMNANT CONVECTIVE VORTEX FROM LAST NIGHT MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH ALONG THE CONT DVD IS FOCUSING REDEVELOPMENT TODAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS FIRING UP FROM LINCOLN COUNTY NORTH
INTO TORRANCE COUNTY WHERE RADAR-BASED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION IS
ALREADY NEAR 3 INCHES IN SOME LOCALES. THE WEAKEST STEERING FLOW
IS FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN NM WHERE DEFORMATION STRETCHES FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY AND PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ALL THESE AREAS ARE
UNDER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE. SOME
MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG TRIBUTARIES TO MAIN
STEM RIVERS SUCH AS THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CHANGE FRIDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS A GREATER FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FARTHER NORTHWEST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS
WEEKEND WILL SEE ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AS THE UPPER HIGH
ESTABLISHES FIRMLY OVERHEAD. EACH AFTERNOON OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE SAME AREAS WILL EXACERBATE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE NOTED. THE
RECYCLING PROCESS WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER...WHICH WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT. NASA SPORT LIS SHOWS MOIST SOILS ARE EXPANDING OVER A
LARGER AREA OF NM AND TO DEEPER LAYERS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ARE
LOOKING VERY TYPICAL OF A MATURE MONSOON PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
AUGUST.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH CENTER ATTEMPTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON...AND MODELS PERSIST ON IT LINGERING OVER THE STATE
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY TO WOBBLE
AROUND A BIT. MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT
SHOULD VERY SLOWLY WARM AND DRY NEXT WEEK. CELL MOTION COULD BE
SOMEWHAT ERRATIC FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT
GENERALLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH WEST OF THE RGV AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST
EAST OF THE RGV. MOVEMENT AND SPEED WILL TREND TO SLOWER AND MORE
ERRATIC FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD.
THEREFORE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TO VARY FROM MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY
TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MIN RH
VALUES WILL TREND DOWNWARD NEXT WEEK...OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES FORECAST
TO REMAIN EXCELLENT.

VENT RATES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH WILL BE FAIR TO POOR THROUGH
SUNDAY. POOR RATES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>537.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 302355 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
555 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
THOUGH A LATER START...SHRA/TSRA ARE DEVELOPING NOW ACROSS MUCH OF
NM. STORM MOIONS WILL GENERALLY BE TOWARD THE N OR NW ACROSS
WESTERN NM...WITH MORE N TO NE MOTION ELSEWHERE. OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
COLLISIONS WILL HELP DRIVE NEW DEVELOPMENT. MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS IN HEAVY RAIN. SHOULD STORMS
DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT...COULD SEE MVFR/IFR CIGS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS...HOWEVER...SOME MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
THAT A WEAK DISTURBANCE ROUNDING THE UPPER HIGH OVER NE NM WILL
KEEP CONVECTION GOING OR REDEVELOPING DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...240 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS SLOW-MOVING STORMS DROP A QUICK 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN. AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...BURNED FORESTS...URBAN
DRAINAGES...AND AREAS THAT PICK UP DAILY ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. A VERY SLOW DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY DELIVERING AS WE NEAR THE END OF JULY
2015. A REMNANT CONVECTIVE VORTEX FROM LAST NIGHT MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH ALONG THE CONT DVD IS FOCUSING REDEVELOPMENT TODAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS FIRING UP FROM LINCOLN COUNTY NORTH
INTO TORRANCE COUNTY WHERE RADAR-BASED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION IS
ALREADY NEAR 3 INCHES IN SOME LOCALES. THE WEAKEST STEERING FLOW
IS FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN NM WHERE DEFORMATION STRETCHES FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY AND PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ALL THESE AREAS ARE
UNDER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE. SOME
MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG TRIBUTARIES TO MAIN
STEM RIVERS SUCH AS THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CHANGE FRIDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS A GREATER FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FARTHER NORTHWEST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS
WEEKEND WILL SEE ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AS THE UPPER HIGH
ESTABLISHES FIRMLY OVERHEAD. EACH AFTERNOON OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE SAME AREAS WILL EXACERBATE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE NOTED. THE
RECYCLING PROCESS WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER...WHICH WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT. NASA SPORT LIS SHOWS MOIST SOILS ARE EXPANDING OVER A
LARGER AREA OF NM AND TO DEEPER LAYERS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ARE
LOOKING VERY TYPICAL OF A MATURE MONSOON PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
AUGUST.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH CENTER ATTEMPTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON...AND MODELS PERSIST ON IT LINGERING OVER THE STATE
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY TO WOBBLE
AROUND A BIT. MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT
SHOULD VERY SLOWLY WARM AND DRY NEXT WEEK. CELL MOTION COULD BE
SOMEWHAT ERRATIC FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT
GENERALLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH WEST OF THE RGV AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST
EAST OF THE RGV. MOVEMENT AND SPEED WILL TREND TO SLOWER AND MORE
ERRATIC FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD.
THEREFORE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TO VARY FROM MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY
TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MIN RH
VALUES WILL TREND DOWNWARD NEXT WEEK...OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES FORECAST
TO REMAIN EXCELLENT.

VENT RATES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH WILL BE FAIR TO POOR THROUGH
SUNDAY. POOR RATES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM MDT FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>537.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 302040
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
240 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS SLOW-MOVING STORMS DROP A QUICK 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN. AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...BURNED FORESTS...URBAN
DRAINAGES...AND AREAS THAT PICK UP DAILY ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. A VERY SLOW DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY DELIVERING AS WE NEAR THE END OF JULY
2015. A REMNANT CONVECTIVE VORTEX FROM LAST NIGHT MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH ALONG THE CONT DVD IS FOCUSING REDEVELOPMENT TODAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS FIRING UP FROM LINCOLN COUNTY NORTH
INTO TORRANCE COUNTY WHERE RADAR-BASED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION IS
ALREADY NEAR 3 INCHES IN SOME LOCALES. THE WEAKEST STEERING FLOW
IS FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN NM WHERE DEFORMATION STRETCHES FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY AND PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ALL THESE AREAS ARE
UNDER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE. SOME
MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG TRIBUTARIES TO MAIN
STEM RIVERS SUCH AS THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CHANGE FRIDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS A GREATER FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FARTHER NORTHWEST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS
WEEKEND WILL SEE ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AS THE UPPER HIGH
ESTABLISHES FIRMLY OVERHEAD. EACH AFTERNOON OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE SAME AREAS WILL EXACERBATE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE NOTED. THE
RECYCLING PROCESS WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER...WHICH WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT. NASA SPORT LIS SHOWS MOIST SOILS ARE EXPANDING OVER A
LARGER AREA OF NM AND TO DEEPER LAYERS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ARE
LOOKING VERY TYPICAL OF A MATURE MONSOON PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
AUGUST.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH CENTER ATTEMPTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON...AND MODELS PERSIST ON IT LINGERING OVER THE STATE
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY TO WOBBLE
AROUND A BIT. MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT
SHOULD VERY SLOWLY WARM AND DRY NEXT WEEK. CELL MOTION COULD BE
SOMEWHAT ERRATIC FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT
GENERALLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH WEST OF THE RGV AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST
EAST OF THE RGV. MOVEMENT AND SPEED WILL TREND TO SLOWER AND MORE
ERRATIC FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD.
THEREFORE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TO VARY FROM MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY
TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MIN RH
VALUES WILL TREND DOWNWARD NEXT WEEK...OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES FORECAST
TO REMAIN EXCELLENT.

VENT RATES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH WILL BE FAIR TO POOR THROUGH
SUNDAY. POOR RATES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
DIFFUSE UPPER HIGH CENTER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CELL MOTION WILL BE MAINLY TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WEST OF THE RGV AND TO THE NORTHEAST EAST
OF THE RGV...ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL HELP DRIVE
DEVELOPMENT. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCD IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS GENLY AFT
06Z DUE TO LINGERING SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  62  85  62  88 /  60  40  40  20
DULCE...........................  53  77  52  81 /  60  70  60  40
CUBA............................  54  73  54  74 /  80  70  60  60
GALLUP..........................  56  81  57  83 /  50  30  60  30
EL MORRO........................  54  75  54  77 /  70  50  70  50
GRANTS..........................  56  77  56  79 /  60  50  60  40
QUEMADO.........................  56  77  56  78 /  50  50  30  50
GLENWOOD........................  59  83  57  84 /  40  40  30  20
CHAMA...........................  51  69  49  73 /  70  80  60  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  73  57  75 /  80  70  80  60
PECOS...........................  56  72  56  75 /  90  70  70  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  53  70  52  73 /  70  80  70  70
RED RIVER.......................  48  59  47  63 /  90  90  80  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  50  63  49  66 / 100  80  70  70
TAOS............................  54  73  52  76 /  60  60  60  40
MORA............................  53  70  52  72 /  90  70  70  50
ESPANOLA........................  59  78  58  81 /  60  40  60  40
SANTA FE........................  59  73  58  75 /  70  60  60  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  77  59  79 /  60  50  50  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  79  62  81 /  80  60  60  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  64  82  64  84 /  60  40  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  64  84  64  86 /  50  30  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  86  63  87 /  60  40  40  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  63  84  63  85 /  50  20  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  63  84  62  86 /  60  40  50  30
SOCORRO.........................  64  88  64  89 /  40  10  30  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  58  78  59  79 /  90  60  70  50
TIJERAS.........................  59  80  60  82 /  80  60  70  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  56  80  55  82 /  50  40  40  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  76  58  79 /  70  50  50  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  58  80  59  81 /  50  30  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  85  61  86 /  30  10  30  10
RUIDOSO.........................  57  76  58  77 /  50  40  30  30
CAPULIN.........................  57  74  56  76 /  70  50  50  40
RATON...........................  56  76  55  79 /  60  40  40  40
SPRINGER........................  58  77  57  80 /  70  50  50  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  55  75  55  78 /  70  60  60  30
CLAYTON.........................  62  82  60  83 /  60  40  60  20
ROY.............................  60  79  60  81 /  70  60  70  20
CONCHAS.........................  66  87  66  89 /  60  40  50  10
SANTA ROSA......................  64  87  64  89 /  70  20  30  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  89  67  90 /  50  30  50  10
CLOVIS..........................  64  87  66  89 /  50  10  30  10
PORTALES........................  65  89  68  91 /  40  10  30  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  66  89  67  91 /  40   5  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  68  95  66  96 /  20   5  10  10
PICACHO.........................  62  87  63  89 /  30  10  10  10
ELK.............................  59  80  60  82 /  30  10   5  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>537.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 302040
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
240 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS SLOW-MOVING STORMS DROP A QUICK 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN. AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...BURNED FORESTS...URBAN
DRAINAGES...AND AREAS THAT PICK UP DAILY ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. A VERY SLOW DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY DELIVERING AS WE NEAR THE END OF JULY
2015. A REMNANT CONVECTIVE VORTEX FROM LAST NIGHT MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH ALONG THE CONT DVD IS FOCUSING REDEVELOPMENT TODAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS FIRING UP FROM LINCOLN COUNTY NORTH
INTO TORRANCE COUNTY WHERE RADAR-BASED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION IS
ALREADY NEAR 3 INCHES IN SOME LOCALES. THE WEAKEST STEERING FLOW
IS FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN NM WHERE DEFORMATION STRETCHES FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY AND PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ALL THESE AREAS ARE
UNDER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE. SOME
MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG TRIBUTARIES TO MAIN
STEM RIVERS SUCH AS THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CHANGE FRIDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS A GREATER FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FARTHER NORTHWEST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS
WEEKEND WILL SEE ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AS THE UPPER HIGH
ESTABLISHES FIRMLY OVERHEAD. EACH AFTERNOON OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE SAME AREAS WILL EXACERBATE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE NOTED. THE
RECYCLING PROCESS WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER...WHICH WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT. NASA SPORT LIS SHOWS MOIST SOILS ARE EXPANDING OVER A
LARGER AREA OF NM AND TO DEEPER LAYERS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ARE
LOOKING VERY TYPICAL OF A MATURE MONSOON PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
AUGUST.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH CENTER ATTEMPTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON...AND MODELS PERSIST ON IT LINGERING OVER THE STATE
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY TO WOBBLE
AROUND A BIT. MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT
SHOULD VERY SLOWLY WARM AND DRY NEXT WEEK. CELL MOTION COULD BE
SOMEWHAT ERRATIC FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT
GENERALLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH WEST OF THE RGV AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST
EAST OF THE RGV. MOVEMENT AND SPEED WILL TREND TO SLOWER AND MORE
ERRATIC FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD.
THEREFORE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TO VARY FROM MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY
TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MIN RH
VALUES WILL TREND DOWNWARD NEXT WEEK...OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES FORECAST
TO REMAIN EXCELLENT.

VENT RATES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH WILL BE FAIR TO POOR THROUGH
SUNDAY. POOR RATES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
DIFFUSE UPPER HIGH CENTER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CELL MOTION WILL BE MAINLY TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WEST OF THE RGV AND TO THE NORTHEAST EAST
OF THE RGV...ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL HELP DRIVE
DEVELOPMENT. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCD IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS GENLY AFT
06Z DUE TO LINGERING SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  62  85  62  88 /  60  40  40  20
DULCE...........................  53  77  52  81 /  60  70  60  40
CUBA............................  54  73  54  74 /  80  70  60  60
GALLUP..........................  56  81  57  83 /  50  30  60  30
EL MORRO........................  54  75  54  77 /  70  50  70  50
GRANTS..........................  56  77  56  79 /  60  50  60  40
QUEMADO.........................  56  77  56  78 /  50  50  30  50
GLENWOOD........................  59  83  57  84 /  40  40  30  20
CHAMA...........................  51  69  49  73 /  70  80  60  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  73  57  75 /  80  70  80  60
PECOS...........................  56  72  56  75 /  90  70  70  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  53  70  52  73 /  70  80  70  70
RED RIVER.......................  48  59  47  63 /  90  90  80  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  50  63  49  66 / 100  80  70  70
TAOS............................  54  73  52  76 /  60  60  60  40
MORA............................  53  70  52  72 /  90  70  70  50
ESPANOLA........................  59  78  58  81 /  60  40  60  40
SANTA FE........................  59  73  58  75 /  70  60  60  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  77  59  79 /  60  50  50  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  79  62  81 /  80  60  60  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  64  82  64  84 /  60  40  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  64  84  64  86 /  50  30  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  86  63  87 /  60  40  40  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  63  84  63  85 /  50  20  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  63  84  62  86 /  60  40  50  30
SOCORRO.........................  64  88  64  89 /  40  10  30  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  58  78  59  79 /  90  60  70  50
TIJERAS.........................  59  80  60  82 /  80  60  70  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  56  80  55  82 /  50  40  40  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  76  58  79 /  70  50  50  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  58  80  59  81 /  50  30  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  85  61  86 /  30  10  30  10
RUIDOSO.........................  57  76  58  77 /  50  40  30  30
CAPULIN.........................  57  74  56  76 /  70  50  50  40
RATON...........................  56  76  55  79 /  60  40  40  40
SPRINGER........................  58  77  57  80 /  70  50  50  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  55  75  55  78 /  70  60  60  30
CLAYTON.........................  62  82  60  83 /  60  40  60  20
ROY.............................  60  79  60  81 /  70  60  70  20
CONCHAS.........................  66  87  66  89 /  60  40  50  10
SANTA ROSA......................  64  87  64  89 /  70  20  30  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  89  67  90 /  50  30  50  10
CLOVIS..........................  64  87  66  89 /  50  10  30  10
PORTALES........................  65  89  68  91 /  40  10  30  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  66  89  67  91 /  40   5  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  68  95  66  96 /  20   5  10  10
PICACHO.........................  62  87  63  89 /  30  10  10  10
ELK.............................  59  80  60  82 /  30  10   5  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>537.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 302040
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
240 PM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE TO
IMPACT NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED AS SLOW-MOVING STORMS DROP A QUICK 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAIN. AREAS OF STEEP TERRAIN...BURNED FORESTS...URBAN
DRAINAGES...AND AREAS THAT PICK UP DAILY ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL
BE THE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE. A VERY SLOW DRYING AND WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED BEGINNING NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CLIMATOLOGICAL PEAK FOR DEEP ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE AND FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY DELIVERING AS WE NEAR THE END OF JULY
2015. A REMNANT CONVECTIVE VORTEX FROM LAST NIGHT MOVING SLOWLY
NORTH ALONG THE CONT DVD IS FOCUSING REDEVELOPMENT TODAY. ANOTHER
AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IS FIRING UP FROM LINCOLN COUNTY NORTH
INTO TORRANCE COUNTY WHERE RADAR-BASED STORM TOTAL ACCUMULATION IS
ALREADY NEAR 3 INCHES IN SOME LOCALES. THE WEAKEST STEERING FLOW
IS FOCUSED OVER NORTHERN NM WHERE DEFORMATION STRETCHES FROM WEST
TO EAST OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. ANY ACTIVITY THERE WILL BE NEARLY
STATIONARY AND PRODUCE TORRENTIAL RAINFALL. ALL THESE AREAS ARE
UNDER THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND NO CHANGES WILL BE MADE. SOME
MINOR RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG TRIBUTARIES TO MAIN
STEM RIVERS SUCH AS THE RIO GRANDE AND PECOS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

EXPECT LITTLE TO NO CHANGE FRIDAY...EXCEPT PERHAPS A GREATER FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINFALL FARTHER NORTHWEST TOWARD THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS
WEEKEND WILL SEE ELEVATED FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL AS THE UPPER HIGH
ESTABLISHES FIRMLY OVERHEAD. EACH AFTERNOON OF HEAVY RAINFALL IN
THE SAME AREAS WILL EXACERBATE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL.

A SLOW WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH NO ADDITIONAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE NOTED. THE
RECYCLING PROCESS WILL BE THE DOMINANT PLAYER...WHICH WILL BE VERY
EFFICIENT. NASA SPORT LIS SHOWS MOIST SOILS ARE EXPANDING OVER A
LARGER AREA OF NM AND TO DEEPER LAYERS. OVERALL...CONDITIONS ARE
LOOKING VERY TYPICAL OF A MATURE MONSOON PATTERN THROUGH EARLY
AUGUST.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER HIGH CENTER ATTEMPTING TO BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER NEW MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON...AND MODELS PERSIST ON IT LINGERING OVER THE STATE
FOR MUCH OF THE UPCOMING WEEK...ALTHOUGH IT/S LIKELY TO WOBBLE
AROUND A BIT. MOISTURE TO REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER THE RIDGE...BUT
SHOULD VERY SLOWLY WARM AND DRY NEXT WEEK. CELL MOTION COULD BE
SOMEWHAT ERRATIC FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...BUT
GENERALLY NORTHWEST AND NORTH WEST OF THE RGV AND NORTH TO NORTHEAST
EAST OF THE RGV. MOVEMENT AND SPEED WILL TREND TO SLOWER AND MORE
ERRATIC FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH THE HIGH CENTER OVERHEAD.
THEREFORE...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT LEAST THROUGH
FRIDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES TO VARY FROM MOSTLY BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH SUNDAY
TO NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE NEXT MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. WHILE MIN RH
VALUES WILL TREND DOWNWARD NEXT WEEK...OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES FORECAST
TO REMAIN EXCELLENT.

VENT RATES OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH WILL BE FAIR TO POOR THROUGH
SUNDAY. POOR RATES ARE FORECAST FOR THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
DIFFUSE UPPER HIGH CENTER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CELL MOTION WILL BE MAINLY TO
THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WEST OF THE RGV AND TO THE NORTHEAST EAST
OF THE RGV...ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL HELP DRIVE
DEVELOPMENT. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCD IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS ASSOCIATED
WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS GENLY AFT
06Z DUE TO LINGERING SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  62  85  62  88 /  60  40  40  20
DULCE...........................  53  77  52  81 /  60  70  60  40
CUBA............................  54  73  54  74 /  80  70  60  60
GALLUP..........................  56  81  57  83 /  50  30  60  30
EL MORRO........................  54  75  54  77 /  70  50  70  50
GRANTS..........................  56  77  56  79 /  60  50  60  40
QUEMADO.........................  56  77  56  78 /  50  50  30  50
GLENWOOD........................  59  83  57  84 /  40  40  30  20
CHAMA...........................  51  69  49  73 /  70  80  60  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  73  57  75 /  80  70  80  60
PECOS...........................  56  72  56  75 /  90  70  70  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  53  70  52  73 /  70  80  70  70
RED RIVER.......................  48  59  47  63 /  90  90  80  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  50  63  49  66 / 100  80  70  70
TAOS............................  54  73  52  76 /  60  60  60  40
MORA............................  53  70  52  72 /  90  70  70  50
ESPANOLA........................  59  78  58  81 /  60  40  60  40
SANTA FE........................  59  73  58  75 /  70  60  60  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  77  59  79 /  60  50  50  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  79  62  81 /  80  60  60  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  64  82  64  84 /  60  40  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  64  84  64  86 /  50  30  40  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  86  63  87 /  60  40  40  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  63  84  63  85 /  50  20  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  63  84  62  86 /  60  40  50  30
SOCORRO.........................  64  88  64  89 /  40  10  30  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  58  78  59  79 /  90  60  70  50
TIJERAS.........................  59  80  60  82 /  80  60  70  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  56  80  55  82 /  50  40  40  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  76  58  79 /  70  50  50  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  58  80  59  81 /  50  30  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  85  61  86 /  30  10  30  10
RUIDOSO.........................  57  76  58  77 /  50  40  30  30
CAPULIN.........................  57  74  56  76 /  70  50  50  40
RATON...........................  56  76  55  79 /  60  40  40  40
SPRINGER........................  58  77  57  80 /  70  50  50  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  55  75  55  78 /  70  60  60  30
CLAYTON.........................  62  82  60  83 /  60  40  60  20
ROY.............................  60  79  60  81 /  70  60  70  20
CONCHAS.........................  66  87  66  89 /  60  40  50  10
SANTA ROSA......................  64  87  64  89 /  70  20  30  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  89  67  90 /  50  30  50  10
CLOVIS..........................  64  87  66  89 /  50  10  30  10
PORTALES........................  65  89  68  91 /  40  10  30  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  66  89  67  91 /  40   5  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  68  95  66  96 /  20   5  10  10
PICACHO.........................  62  87  63  89 /  30  10  10  10
ELK.............................  59  80  60  82 /  30  10   5  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>537.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 301750
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
DIFFUSE UPPER HIGH CENTER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CELL MOTION WILL BE
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WEST OF THE RGV AND TO THE
NORTHEAST EAST OF THE RGV...ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
HELP DRIVE DEVELOPMENT. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCD IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
GENLY AFT 06Z DUE TO LINGERING SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1125 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.UPDATE...
TRENDED POPS UPWARD ALONG THE CAPROCK WHERE LATEST HRRR/RAP AND
SPC SSEO PRODUCTS SHOW MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING A VERY ACTIVE DAY WITH LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
NOW RIPE TODAY WITH THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP FROM WEDNESDAY.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...339 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO NEW MEXICO...AND THIS
WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR MANY NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.
RAINFALL COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
REPEATED STORMS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN SHOULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY AND SLIGHTLY LESSEN INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY REGAINS SOME STRENGTH OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. EXPECT
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN...SOME OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY CENTROID OF THE UPPER HIGH IS OVER TX...BUT A
SECONDARY...AND SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED...CENTROID IS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE THAT COULD PRODUCE OPTIMAL FLOW ALOFT
AND SOME STRETCHING THAT WOULD HELP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPLOIT THE DEEPENING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT
HAS INVADED NM. THIS AXIS OR DEFORMATION ZONE WILL MOST LIKELY
STRETCH FROM ROUGHLY GALLUP TO TAOS...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION WITH THE
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE AREA...BUT SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE
ABLE TO PROPAGATE AT FAIRLY BRISK SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. THIS
MIGHT SUGGEST A LOWER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER THE
PROBABILITY FOR TRAINING CELLS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER THE SAME
AREAS WILL BE HIGH...AND THE JUICY PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES WILL
PUSH RAINDROP SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS TOWARD A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION
WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL. THUS...FELT PRUDENT TO REISSUE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. HAVE KEPT ALL OF YESTERDAY`S ZONES WITH ADDITION OF
THE WESTERN ZONES NEAR AZ AND SOME OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES.
THESE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES ARE DISPLACED FROM THE DEFORMATION
ZONE...BUT WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF JUICE/INSTABILITY/OROGRAPHICS TO
WORK WITH...AND THE NAM/HRRR MODELS ARE GENERATING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF QPF THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF ACTIVITY
ALREADY ONGOING...THERE MAY BE A LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON LULL
IN CONVECTION BEFORE THINGS DE-STABILIZE AGAIN...HOWEVER HAVE KEPT
FORECAST POPS SIMPLISTIC WITH JUST 12 HOUR INTERVALS.

FRIDAY`S FORECAST WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON WHAT TRANSPIRES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OR
TWO IS HIGH. THESE CAN CERTAINLY BE CONVECTIVE ENHANCERS INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS...BUT CAN ALSO PRODUCE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND
MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE IN ADJACENT AREAS. FOR NOW...A SIMPLISTIC
GENERALIZED APPROACH HAS BEEN BUILT INTO THE FORECAST...KEEPING
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA FAVORED FOR
STORMS AS THE UPPER HIGH EVOLVES TOWARD A RE-ESTABLISHMENT OVER
NM.

THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER NM INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING UP
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
ON HAND...AND WHILE POPS MAY SLIGHTLY DECREASE FROM
FRIDAY...CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN
TO WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE HEIGHTS ARE SHOWN TO RISE SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POTENTIALLY DISCONNECTING THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
SOME FROM ITS MEXICAN ORIGIN. STILL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH MORE NUMEROUS CELLS OVER THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AREAS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NM. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OR WITHIN REACH OF NM THROUGH MOST
OF THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK PER MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
MOISTURE WILL BE RECYCLED OVER THE STATE WITH OCCASIONAL
INTRUSIONS FROM THE SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO RAIN-
COOLING AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.

A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING TREND FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO WITH NO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INPUT. WETTING RAIN
FOOTPRINT SHOULD SHRINK A BIT EACH DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DROP A BIT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK...WITH WITH 20-30% FORECAST BY
THURSDAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>537.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 301750
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
DIFFUSE UPPER HIGH CENTER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CELL MOTION WILL BE
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WEST OF THE RGV AND TO THE
NORTHEAST EAST OF THE RGV...ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
HELP DRIVE DEVELOPMENT. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCD IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
GENLY AFT 06Z DUE TO LINGERING SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1125 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.UPDATE...
TRENDED POPS UPWARD ALONG THE CAPROCK WHERE LATEST HRRR/RAP AND
SPC SSEO PRODUCTS SHOW MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING A VERY ACTIVE DAY WITH LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
NOW RIPE TODAY WITH THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP FROM WEDNESDAY.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...339 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO NEW MEXICO...AND THIS
WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR MANY NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.
RAINFALL COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
REPEATED STORMS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN SHOULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY AND SLIGHTLY LESSEN INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY REGAINS SOME STRENGTH OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. EXPECT
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN...SOME OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY CENTROID OF THE UPPER HIGH IS OVER TX...BUT A
SECONDARY...AND SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED...CENTROID IS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE THAT COULD PRODUCE OPTIMAL FLOW ALOFT
AND SOME STRETCHING THAT WOULD HELP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPLOIT THE DEEPENING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT
HAS INVADED NM. THIS AXIS OR DEFORMATION ZONE WILL MOST LIKELY
STRETCH FROM ROUGHLY GALLUP TO TAOS...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION WITH THE
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE AREA...BUT SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE
ABLE TO PROPAGATE AT FAIRLY BRISK SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. THIS
MIGHT SUGGEST A LOWER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER THE
PROBABILITY FOR TRAINING CELLS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER THE SAME
AREAS WILL BE HIGH...AND THE JUICY PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES WILL
PUSH RAINDROP SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS TOWARD A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION
WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL. THUS...FELT PRUDENT TO REISSUE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. HAVE KEPT ALL OF YESTERDAY`S ZONES WITH ADDITION OF
THE WESTERN ZONES NEAR AZ AND SOME OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES.
THESE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES ARE DISPLACED FROM THE DEFORMATION
ZONE...BUT WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF JUICE/INSTABILITY/OROGRAPHICS TO
WORK WITH...AND THE NAM/HRRR MODELS ARE GENERATING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF QPF THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF ACTIVITY
ALREADY ONGOING...THERE MAY BE A LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON LULL
IN CONVECTION BEFORE THINGS DE-STABILIZE AGAIN...HOWEVER HAVE KEPT
FORECAST POPS SIMPLISTIC WITH JUST 12 HOUR INTERVALS.

FRIDAY`S FORECAST WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON WHAT TRANSPIRES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OR
TWO IS HIGH. THESE CAN CERTAINLY BE CONVECTIVE ENHANCERS INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS...BUT CAN ALSO PRODUCE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND
MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE IN ADJACENT AREAS. FOR NOW...A SIMPLISTIC
GENERALIZED APPROACH HAS BEEN BUILT INTO THE FORECAST...KEEPING
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA FAVORED FOR
STORMS AS THE UPPER HIGH EVOLVES TOWARD A RE-ESTABLISHMENT OVER
NM.

THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER NM INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING UP
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
ON HAND...AND WHILE POPS MAY SLIGHTLY DECREASE FROM
FRIDAY...CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN
TO WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE HEIGHTS ARE SHOWN TO RISE SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POTENTIALLY DISCONNECTING THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
SOME FROM ITS MEXICAN ORIGIN. STILL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH MORE NUMEROUS CELLS OVER THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AREAS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NM. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OR WITHIN REACH OF NM THROUGH MOST
OF THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK PER MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
MOISTURE WILL BE RECYCLED OVER THE STATE WITH OCCASIONAL
INTRUSIONS FROM THE SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO RAIN-
COOLING AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.

A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING TREND FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO WITH NO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INPUT. WETTING RAIN
FOOTPRINT SHOULD SHRINK A BIT EACH DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DROP A BIT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK...WITH WITH 20-30% FORECAST BY
THURSDAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>537.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 301750
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
DIFFUSE UPPER HIGH CENTER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CELL MOTION WILL BE
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WEST OF THE RGV AND TO THE
NORTHEAST EAST OF THE RGV...ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
HELP DRIVE DEVELOPMENT. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCD IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
GENLY AFT 06Z DUE TO LINGERING SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1125 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.UPDATE...
TRENDED POPS UPWARD ALONG THE CAPROCK WHERE LATEST HRRR/RAP AND
SPC SSEO PRODUCTS SHOW MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING A VERY ACTIVE DAY WITH LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
NOW RIPE TODAY WITH THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP FROM WEDNESDAY.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...339 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO NEW MEXICO...AND THIS
WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR MANY NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.
RAINFALL COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
REPEATED STORMS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN SHOULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY AND SLIGHTLY LESSEN INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY REGAINS SOME STRENGTH OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. EXPECT
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN...SOME OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY CENTROID OF THE UPPER HIGH IS OVER TX...BUT A
SECONDARY...AND SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED...CENTROID IS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE THAT COULD PRODUCE OPTIMAL FLOW ALOFT
AND SOME STRETCHING THAT WOULD HELP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPLOIT THE DEEPENING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT
HAS INVADED NM. THIS AXIS OR DEFORMATION ZONE WILL MOST LIKELY
STRETCH FROM ROUGHLY GALLUP TO TAOS...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION WITH THE
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE AREA...BUT SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE
ABLE TO PROPAGATE AT FAIRLY BRISK SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. THIS
MIGHT SUGGEST A LOWER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER THE
PROBABILITY FOR TRAINING CELLS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER THE SAME
AREAS WILL BE HIGH...AND THE JUICY PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES WILL
PUSH RAINDROP SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS TOWARD A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION
WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL. THUS...FELT PRUDENT TO REISSUE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. HAVE KEPT ALL OF YESTERDAY`S ZONES WITH ADDITION OF
THE WESTERN ZONES NEAR AZ AND SOME OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES.
THESE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES ARE DISPLACED FROM THE DEFORMATION
ZONE...BUT WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF JUICE/INSTABILITY/OROGRAPHICS TO
WORK WITH...AND THE NAM/HRRR MODELS ARE GENERATING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF QPF THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF ACTIVITY
ALREADY ONGOING...THERE MAY BE A LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON LULL
IN CONVECTION BEFORE THINGS DE-STABILIZE AGAIN...HOWEVER HAVE KEPT
FORECAST POPS SIMPLISTIC WITH JUST 12 HOUR INTERVALS.

FRIDAY`S FORECAST WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON WHAT TRANSPIRES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OR
TWO IS HIGH. THESE CAN CERTAINLY BE CONVECTIVE ENHANCERS INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS...BUT CAN ALSO PRODUCE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND
MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE IN ADJACENT AREAS. FOR NOW...A SIMPLISTIC
GENERALIZED APPROACH HAS BEEN BUILT INTO THE FORECAST...KEEPING
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA FAVORED FOR
STORMS AS THE UPPER HIGH EVOLVES TOWARD A RE-ESTABLISHMENT OVER
NM.

THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER NM INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING UP
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
ON HAND...AND WHILE POPS MAY SLIGHTLY DECREASE FROM
FRIDAY...CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN
TO WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE HEIGHTS ARE SHOWN TO RISE SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POTENTIALLY DISCONNECTING THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
SOME FROM ITS MEXICAN ORIGIN. STILL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH MORE NUMEROUS CELLS OVER THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AREAS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NM. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OR WITHIN REACH OF NM THROUGH MOST
OF THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK PER MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
MOISTURE WILL BE RECYCLED OVER THE STATE WITH OCCASIONAL
INTRUSIONS FROM THE SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO RAIN-
COOLING AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.

A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING TREND FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO WITH NO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INPUT. WETTING RAIN
FOOTPRINT SHOULD SHRINK A BIT EACH DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DROP A BIT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK...WITH WITH 20-30% FORECAST BY
THURSDAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>537.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 301750
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
DIFFUSE UPPER HIGH CENTER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CELL MOTION WILL BE
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WEST OF THE RGV AND TO THE
NORTHEAST EAST OF THE RGV...ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
HELP DRIVE DEVELOPMENT. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCD IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
GENLY AFT 06Z DUE TO LINGERING SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1125 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.UPDATE...
TRENDED POPS UPWARD ALONG THE CAPROCK WHERE LATEST HRRR/RAP AND
SPC SSEO PRODUCTS SHOW MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING A VERY ACTIVE DAY WITH LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
NOW RIPE TODAY WITH THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP FROM WEDNESDAY.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...339 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO NEW MEXICO...AND THIS
WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR MANY NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.
RAINFALL COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
REPEATED STORMS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN SHOULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY AND SLIGHTLY LESSEN INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY REGAINS SOME STRENGTH OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. EXPECT
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN...SOME OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY CENTROID OF THE UPPER HIGH IS OVER TX...BUT A
SECONDARY...AND SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED...CENTROID IS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE THAT COULD PRODUCE OPTIMAL FLOW ALOFT
AND SOME STRETCHING THAT WOULD HELP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPLOIT THE DEEPENING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT
HAS INVADED NM. THIS AXIS OR DEFORMATION ZONE WILL MOST LIKELY
STRETCH FROM ROUGHLY GALLUP TO TAOS...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION WITH THE
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE AREA...BUT SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE
ABLE TO PROPAGATE AT FAIRLY BRISK SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. THIS
MIGHT SUGGEST A LOWER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER THE
PROBABILITY FOR TRAINING CELLS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER THE SAME
AREAS WILL BE HIGH...AND THE JUICY PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES WILL
PUSH RAINDROP SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS TOWARD A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION
WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL. THUS...FELT PRUDENT TO REISSUE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. HAVE KEPT ALL OF YESTERDAY`S ZONES WITH ADDITION OF
THE WESTERN ZONES NEAR AZ AND SOME OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES.
THESE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES ARE DISPLACED FROM THE DEFORMATION
ZONE...BUT WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF JUICE/INSTABILITY/OROGRAPHICS TO
WORK WITH...AND THE NAM/HRRR MODELS ARE GENERATING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF QPF THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF ACTIVITY
ALREADY ONGOING...THERE MAY BE A LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON LULL
IN CONVECTION BEFORE THINGS DE-STABILIZE AGAIN...HOWEVER HAVE KEPT
FORECAST POPS SIMPLISTIC WITH JUST 12 HOUR INTERVALS.

FRIDAY`S FORECAST WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON WHAT TRANSPIRES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OR
TWO IS HIGH. THESE CAN CERTAINLY BE CONVECTIVE ENHANCERS INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS...BUT CAN ALSO PRODUCE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND
MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE IN ADJACENT AREAS. FOR NOW...A SIMPLISTIC
GENERALIZED APPROACH HAS BEEN BUILT INTO THE FORECAST...KEEPING
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA FAVORED FOR
STORMS AS THE UPPER HIGH EVOLVES TOWARD A RE-ESTABLISHMENT OVER
NM.

THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER NM INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING UP
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
ON HAND...AND WHILE POPS MAY SLIGHTLY DECREASE FROM
FRIDAY...CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN
TO WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE HEIGHTS ARE SHOWN TO RISE SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POTENTIALLY DISCONNECTING THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
SOME FROM ITS MEXICAN ORIGIN. STILL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH MORE NUMEROUS CELLS OVER THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AREAS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NM. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OR WITHIN REACH OF NM THROUGH MOST
OF THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK PER MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
MOISTURE WILL BE RECYCLED OVER THE STATE WITH OCCASIONAL
INTRUSIONS FROM THE SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO RAIN-
COOLING AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.

A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING TREND FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO WITH NO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INPUT. WETTING RAIN
FOOTPRINT SHOULD SHRINK A BIT EACH DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DROP A BIT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK...WITH WITH 20-30% FORECAST BY
THURSDAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>537.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 301750
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
DIFFUSE UPPER HIGH CENTER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CELL MOTION WILL BE
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WEST OF THE RGV AND TO THE
NORTHEAST EAST OF THE RGV...ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
HELP DRIVE DEVELOPMENT. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCD IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
GENLY AFT 06Z DUE TO LINGERING SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1125 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.UPDATE...
TRENDED POPS UPWARD ALONG THE CAPROCK WHERE LATEST HRRR/RAP AND
SPC SSEO PRODUCTS SHOW MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING A VERY ACTIVE DAY WITH LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
NOW RIPE TODAY WITH THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP FROM WEDNESDAY.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...339 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO NEW MEXICO...AND THIS
WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR MANY NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.
RAINFALL COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
REPEATED STORMS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN SHOULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY AND SLIGHTLY LESSEN INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY REGAINS SOME STRENGTH OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. EXPECT
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN...SOME OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY CENTROID OF THE UPPER HIGH IS OVER TX...BUT A
SECONDARY...AND SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED...CENTROID IS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE THAT COULD PRODUCE OPTIMAL FLOW ALOFT
AND SOME STRETCHING THAT WOULD HELP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPLOIT THE DEEPENING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT
HAS INVADED NM. THIS AXIS OR DEFORMATION ZONE WILL MOST LIKELY
STRETCH FROM ROUGHLY GALLUP TO TAOS...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION WITH THE
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE AREA...BUT SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE
ABLE TO PROPAGATE AT FAIRLY BRISK SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. THIS
MIGHT SUGGEST A LOWER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER THE
PROBABILITY FOR TRAINING CELLS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER THE SAME
AREAS WILL BE HIGH...AND THE JUICY PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES WILL
PUSH RAINDROP SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS TOWARD A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION
WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL. THUS...FELT PRUDENT TO REISSUE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. HAVE KEPT ALL OF YESTERDAY`S ZONES WITH ADDITION OF
THE WESTERN ZONES NEAR AZ AND SOME OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES.
THESE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES ARE DISPLACED FROM THE DEFORMATION
ZONE...BUT WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF JUICE/INSTABILITY/OROGRAPHICS TO
WORK WITH...AND THE NAM/HRRR MODELS ARE GENERATING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF QPF THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF ACTIVITY
ALREADY ONGOING...THERE MAY BE A LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON LULL
IN CONVECTION BEFORE THINGS DE-STABILIZE AGAIN...HOWEVER HAVE KEPT
FORECAST POPS SIMPLISTIC WITH JUST 12 HOUR INTERVALS.

FRIDAY`S FORECAST WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON WHAT TRANSPIRES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OR
TWO IS HIGH. THESE CAN CERTAINLY BE CONVECTIVE ENHANCERS INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS...BUT CAN ALSO PRODUCE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND
MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE IN ADJACENT AREAS. FOR NOW...A SIMPLISTIC
GENERALIZED APPROACH HAS BEEN BUILT INTO THE FORECAST...KEEPING
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA FAVORED FOR
STORMS AS THE UPPER HIGH EVOLVES TOWARD A RE-ESTABLISHMENT OVER
NM.

THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER NM INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING UP
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
ON HAND...AND WHILE POPS MAY SLIGHTLY DECREASE FROM
FRIDAY...CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN
TO WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE HEIGHTS ARE SHOWN TO RISE SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POTENTIALLY DISCONNECTING THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
SOME FROM ITS MEXICAN ORIGIN. STILL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH MORE NUMEROUS CELLS OVER THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AREAS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NM. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OR WITHIN REACH OF NM THROUGH MOST
OF THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK PER MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
MOISTURE WILL BE RECYCLED OVER THE STATE WITH OCCASIONAL
INTRUSIONS FROM THE SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO RAIN-
COOLING AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.

A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING TREND FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO WITH NO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INPUT. WETTING RAIN
FOOTPRINT SHOULD SHRINK A BIT EACH DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DROP A BIT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK...WITH WITH 20-30% FORECAST BY
THURSDAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>537.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 301750
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
DIFFUSE UPPER HIGH CENTER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CELL MOTION WILL BE
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WEST OF THE RGV AND TO THE
NORTHEAST EAST OF THE RGV...ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
HELP DRIVE DEVELOPMENT. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCD IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
GENLY AFT 06Z DUE TO LINGERING SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1125 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.UPDATE...
TRENDED POPS UPWARD ALONG THE CAPROCK WHERE LATEST HRRR/RAP AND
SPC SSEO PRODUCTS SHOW MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING A VERY ACTIVE DAY WITH LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
NOW RIPE TODAY WITH THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP FROM WEDNESDAY.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...339 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO NEW MEXICO...AND THIS
WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR MANY NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.
RAINFALL COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
REPEATED STORMS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN SHOULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY AND SLIGHTLY LESSEN INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY REGAINS SOME STRENGTH OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. EXPECT
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN...SOME OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY CENTROID OF THE UPPER HIGH IS OVER TX...BUT A
SECONDARY...AND SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED...CENTROID IS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE THAT COULD PRODUCE OPTIMAL FLOW ALOFT
AND SOME STRETCHING THAT WOULD HELP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPLOIT THE DEEPENING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT
HAS INVADED NM. THIS AXIS OR DEFORMATION ZONE WILL MOST LIKELY
STRETCH FROM ROUGHLY GALLUP TO TAOS...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION WITH THE
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE AREA...BUT SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE
ABLE TO PROPAGATE AT FAIRLY BRISK SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. THIS
MIGHT SUGGEST A LOWER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER THE
PROBABILITY FOR TRAINING CELLS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER THE SAME
AREAS WILL BE HIGH...AND THE JUICY PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES WILL
PUSH RAINDROP SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS TOWARD A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION
WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL. THUS...FELT PRUDENT TO REISSUE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. HAVE KEPT ALL OF YESTERDAY`S ZONES WITH ADDITION OF
THE WESTERN ZONES NEAR AZ AND SOME OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES.
THESE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES ARE DISPLACED FROM THE DEFORMATION
ZONE...BUT WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF JUICE/INSTABILITY/OROGRAPHICS TO
WORK WITH...AND THE NAM/HRRR MODELS ARE GENERATING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF QPF THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF ACTIVITY
ALREADY ONGOING...THERE MAY BE A LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON LULL
IN CONVECTION BEFORE THINGS DE-STABILIZE AGAIN...HOWEVER HAVE KEPT
FORECAST POPS SIMPLISTIC WITH JUST 12 HOUR INTERVALS.

FRIDAY`S FORECAST WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON WHAT TRANSPIRES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OR
TWO IS HIGH. THESE CAN CERTAINLY BE CONVECTIVE ENHANCERS INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS...BUT CAN ALSO PRODUCE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND
MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE IN ADJACENT AREAS. FOR NOW...A SIMPLISTIC
GENERALIZED APPROACH HAS BEEN BUILT INTO THE FORECAST...KEEPING
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA FAVORED FOR
STORMS AS THE UPPER HIGH EVOLVES TOWARD A RE-ESTABLISHMENT OVER
NM.

THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER NM INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING UP
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
ON HAND...AND WHILE POPS MAY SLIGHTLY DECREASE FROM
FRIDAY...CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN
TO WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE HEIGHTS ARE SHOWN TO RISE SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POTENTIALLY DISCONNECTING THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
SOME FROM ITS MEXICAN ORIGIN. STILL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH MORE NUMEROUS CELLS OVER THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AREAS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NM. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OR WITHIN REACH OF NM THROUGH MOST
OF THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK PER MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
MOISTURE WILL BE RECYCLED OVER THE STATE WITH OCCASIONAL
INTRUSIONS FROM THE SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO RAIN-
COOLING AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.

A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING TREND FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO WITH NO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INPUT. WETTING RAIN
FOOTPRINT SHOULD SHRINK A BIT EACH DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DROP A BIT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK...WITH WITH 20-30% FORECAST BY
THURSDAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>537.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 301750
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
DIFFUSE UPPER HIGH CENTER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CELL MOTION WILL BE
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WEST OF THE RGV AND TO THE
NORTHEAST EAST OF THE RGV...ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
HELP DRIVE DEVELOPMENT. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCD IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
GENLY AFT 06Z DUE TO LINGERING SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1125 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.UPDATE...
TRENDED POPS UPWARD ALONG THE CAPROCK WHERE LATEST HRRR/RAP AND
SPC SSEO PRODUCTS SHOW MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING A VERY ACTIVE DAY WITH LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
NOW RIPE TODAY WITH THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP FROM WEDNESDAY.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...339 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO NEW MEXICO...AND THIS
WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR MANY NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.
RAINFALL COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
REPEATED STORMS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN SHOULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY AND SLIGHTLY LESSEN INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY REGAINS SOME STRENGTH OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. EXPECT
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN...SOME OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY CENTROID OF THE UPPER HIGH IS OVER TX...BUT A
SECONDARY...AND SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED...CENTROID IS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE THAT COULD PRODUCE OPTIMAL FLOW ALOFT
AND SOME STRETCHING THAT WOULD HELP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPLOIT THE DEEPENING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT
HAS INVADED NM. THIS AXIS OR DEFORMATION ZONE WILL MOST LIKELY
STRETCH FROM ROUGHLY GALLUP TO TAOS...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION WITH THE
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE AREA...BUT SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE
ABLE TO PROPAGATE AT FAIRLY BRISK SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. THIS
MIGHT SUGGEST A LOWER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER THE
PROBABILITY FOR TRAINING CELLS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER THE SAME
AREAS WILL BE HIGH...AND THE JUICY PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES WILL
PUSH RAINDROP SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS TOWARD A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION
WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL. THUS...FELT PRUDENT TO REISSUE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. HAVE KEPT ALL OF YESTERDAY`S ZONES WITH ADDITION OF
THE WESTERN ZONES NEAR AZ AND SOME OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES.
THESE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES ARE DISPLACED FROM THE DEFORMATION
ZONE...BUT WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF JUICE/INSTABILITY/OROGRAPHICS TO
WORK WITH...AND THE NAM/HRRR MODELS ARE GENERATING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF QPF THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF ACTIVITY
ALREADY ONGOING...THERE MAY BE A LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON LULL
IN CONVECTION BEFORE THINGS DE-STABILIZE AGAIN...HOWEVER HAVE KEPT
FORECAST POPS SIMPLISTIC WITH JUST 12 HOUR INTERVALS.

FRIDAY`S FORECAST WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON WHAT TRANSPIRES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OR
TWO IS HIGH. THESE CAN CERTAINLY BE CONVECTIVE ENHANCERS INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS...BUT CAN ALSO PRODUCE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND
MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE IN ADJACENT AREAS. FOR NOW...A SIMPLISTIC
GENERALIZED APPROACH HAS BEEN BUILT INTO THE FORECAST...KEEPING
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA FAVORED FOR
STORMS AS THE UPPER HIGH EVOLVES TOWARD A RE-ESTABLISHMENT OVER
NM.

THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER NM INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING UP
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
ON HAND...AND WHILE POPS MAY SLIGHTLY DECREASE FROM
FRIDAY...CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN
TO WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE HEIGHTS ARE SHOWN TO RISE SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POTENTIALLY DISCONNECTING THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
SOME FROM ITS MEXICAN ORIGIN. STILL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH MORE NUMEROUS CELLS OVER THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AREAS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NM. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OR WITHIN REACH OF NM THROUGH MOST
OF THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK PER MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
MOISTURE WILL BE RECYCLED OVER THE STATE WITH OCCASIONAL
INTRUSIONS FROM THE SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO RAIN-
COOLING AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.

A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING TREND FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO WITH NO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INPUT. WETTING RAIN
FOOTPRINT SHOULD SHRINK A BIT EACH DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DROP A BIT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK...WITH WITH 20-30% FORECAST BY
THURSDAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>537.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 301750
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
DIFFUSE UPPER HIGH CENTER WITH PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL LEAD
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. CELL MOTION WILL BE
MAINLY TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST WEST OF THE RGV AND TO THE
NORTHEAST EAST OF THE RGV...ALTHOUGH OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES WILL
HELP DRIVE DEVELOPMENT. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCD IN MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS. POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS/VSBYS
GENLY AFT 06Z DUE TO LINGERING SHOWERS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1125 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.UPDATE...
TRENDED POPS UPWARD ALONG THE CAPROCK WHERE LATEST HRRR/RAP AND
SPC SSEO PRODUCTS SHOW MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING A VERY ACTIVE DAY WITH LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
NOW RIPE TODAY WITH THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP FROM WEDNESDAY.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...339 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO NEW MEXICO...AND THIS
WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR MANY NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.
RAINFALL COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
REPEATED STORMS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN SHOULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY AND SLIGHTLY LESSEN INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY REGAINS SOME STRENGTH OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. EXPECT
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN...SOME OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY CENTROID OF THE UPPER HIGH IS OVER TX...BUT A
SECONDARY...AND SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED...CENTROID IS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE THAT COULD PRODUCE OPTIMAL FLOW ALOFT
AND SOME STRETCHING THAT WOULD HELP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPLOIT THE DEEPENING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT
HAS INVADED NM. THIS AXIS OR DEFORMATION ZONE WILL MOST LIKELY
STRETCH FROM ROUGHLY GALLUP TO TAOS...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION WITH THE
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE AREA...BUT SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE
ABLE TO PROPAGATE AT FAIRLY BRISK SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. THIS
MIGHT SUGGEST A LOWER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER THE
PROBABILITY FOR TRAINING CELLS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER THE SAME
AREAS WILL BE HIGH...AND THE JUICY PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES WILL
PUSH RAINDROP SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS TOWARD A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION
WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL. THUS...FELT PRUDENT TO REISSUE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. HAVE KEPT ALL OF YESTERDAY`S ZONES WITH ADDITION OF
THE WESTERN ZONES NEAR AZ AND SOME OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES.
THESE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES ARE DISPLACED FROM THE DEFORMATION
ZONE...BUT WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF JUICE/INSTABILITY/OROGRAPHICS TO
WORK WITH...AND THE NAM/HRRR MODELS ARE GENERATING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF QPF THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF ACTIVITY
ALREADY ONGOING...THERE MAY BE A LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON LULL
IN CONVECTION BEFORE THINGS DE-STABILIZE AGAIN...HOWEVER HAVE KEPT
FORECAST POPS SIMPLISTIC WITH JUST 12 HOUR INTERVALS.

FRIDAY`S FORECAST WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON WHAT TRANSPIRES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OR
TWO IS HIGH. THESE CAN CERTAINLY BE CONVECTIVE ENHANCERS INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS...BUT CAN ALSO PRODUCE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND
MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE IN ADJACENT AREAS. FOR NOW...A SIMPLISTIC
GENERALIZED APPROACH HAS BEEN BUILT INTO THE FORECAST...KEEPING
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA FAVORED FOR
STORMS AS THE UPPER HIGH EVOLVES TOWARD A RE-ESTABLISHMENT OVER
NM.

THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER NM INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING UP
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
ON HAND...AND WHILE POPS MAY SLIGHTLY DECREASE FROM
FRIDAY...CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN
TO WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE HEIGHTS ARE SHOWN TO RISE SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POTENTIALLY DISCONNECTING THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
SOME FROM ITS MEXICAN ORIGIN. STILL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH MORE NUMEROUS CELLS OVER THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AREAS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NM. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OR WITHIN REACH OF NM THROUGH MOST
OF THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK PER MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
MOISTURE WILL BE RECYCLED OVER THE STATE WITH OCCASIONAL
INTRUSIONS FROM THE SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO RAIN-
COOLING AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.

A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING TREND FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO WITH NO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INPUT. WETTING RAIN
FOOTPRINT SHOULD SHRINK A BIT EACH DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DROP A BIT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK...WITH WITH 20-30% FORECAST BY
THURSDAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>537.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 301725 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1125 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
TRENDED POPS UPWARD ALONG THE CAPROCK WHERE LATEST HRRR/RAP AND
SPC SSEO PRODUCTS SHOW MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING A VERY ACTIVE DAY WITH LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
NOW RIPE TODAY WITH THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP FROM WEDNESDAY.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...551 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
OUTSIDE OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST WITH CONVECTION TODAY...ALTHOUGH SHORT-LIVED IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. TERMINAL LEAST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED IS
KROW...WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...339 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO NEW MEXICO...AND THIS
WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR MANY NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.
RAINFALL COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
REPEATED STORMS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN SHOULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY AND SLIGHTLY LESSEN INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY REGAINS SOME STRENGTH OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. EXPECT
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN...SOME OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY CENTROID OF THE UPPER HIGH IS OVER TX...BUT A
SECONDARY...AND SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED...CENTROID IS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE THAT COULD PRODUCE OPTIMAL FLOW ALOFT
AND SOME STRETCHING THAT WOULD HELP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPLOIT THE DEEPENING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT
HAS INVADED NM. THIS AXIS OR DEFORMATION ZONE WILL MOST LIKELY
STRETCH FROM ROUGHLY GALLUP TO TAOS...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION WITH THE
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE AREA...BUT SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE
ABLE TO PROPAGATE AT FAIRLY BRISK SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. THIS
MIGHT SUGGEST A LOWER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER THE
PROBABILITY FOR TRAINING CELLS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER THE SAME
AREAS WILL BE HIGH...AND THE JUICY PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES WILL
PUSH RAINDROP SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS TOWARD A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION
WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL. THUS...FELT PRUDENT TO REISSUE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. HAVE KEPT ALL OF YESTERDAY`S ZONES WITH ADDITION OF
THE WESTERN ZONES NEAR AZ AND SOME OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES.
THESE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES ARE DISPLACED FROM THE DEFORMATION
ZONE...BUT WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF JUICE/INSTABILITY/OROGRAPHICS TO
WORK WITH...AND THE NAM/HRRR MODELS ARE GENERATING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF QPF THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF ACTIVITY
ALREADY ONGOING...THERE MAY BE A LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON LULL
IN CONVECTION BEFORE THINGS DE-STABILIZE AGAIN...HOWEVER HAVE KEPT
FORECAST POPS SIMPLISTIC WITH JUST 12 HOUR INTERVALS.

FRIDAY`S FORECAST WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON WHAT TRANSPIRES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OR
TWO IS HIGH. THESE CAN CERTAINLY BE CONVECTIVE ENHANCERS INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS...BUT CAN ALSO PRODUCE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND
MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE IN ADJACENT AREAS. FOR NOW...A SIMPLISTIC
GENERALIZED APPROACH HAS BEEN BUILT INTO THE FORECAST...KEEPING
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA FAVORED FOR
STORMS AS THE UPPER HIGH EVOLVES TOWARD A RE-ESTABLISHMENT OVER
NM.

THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER NM INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING UP
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
ON HAND...AND WHILE POPS MAY SLIGHTLY DECREASE FROM
FRIDAY...CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN
TO WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE HEIGHTS ARE SHOWN TO RISE SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POTENTIALLY DISCONNECTING THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
SOME FROM ITS MEXICAN ORIGIN. STILL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH MORE NUMEROUS CELLS OVER THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AREAS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NM. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OR WITHIN REACH OF NM THROUGH MOST
OF THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK PER MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
MOISTURE WILL BE RECYCLED OVER THE STATE WITH OCCASIONAL
INTRUSIONS FROM THE SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO RAIN-
COOLING AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.

A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING TREND FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO WITH NO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INPUT. WETTING RAIN
FOOTPRINT SHOULD SHRINK A BIT EACH DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DROP A BIT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK...WITH WITH 20-30% FORECAST BY
THURSDAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>537.

&&

$$

42




000
FXUS65 KABQ 301725 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1125 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.UPDATE...
TRENDED POPS UPWARD ALONG THE CAPROCK WHERE LATEST HRRR/RAP AND
SPC SSEO PRODUCTS SHOW MORE VIGOROUS CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...STILL EXPECTING A VERY ACTIVE DAY WITH LOCALLY HVY
RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS ARE
NOW RIPE TODAY WITH THE WIDESPREAD HEAVY PRECIP FROM WEDNESDAY.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...551 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
OUTSIDE OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST WITH CONVECTION TODAY...ALTHOUGH SHORT-LIVED IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. TERMINAL LEAST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED IS
KROW...WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...339 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO NEW MEXICO...AND THIS
WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR MANY NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.
RAINFALL COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
REPEATED STORMS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN SHOULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY AND SLIGHTLY LESSEN INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY REGAINS SOME STRENGTH OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. EXPECT
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN...SOME OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY CENTROID OF THE UPPER HIGH IS OVER TX...BUT A
SECONDARY...AND SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED...CENTROID IS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE THAT COULD PRODUCE OPTIMAL FLOW ALOFT
AND SOME STRETCHING THAT WOULD HELP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPLOIT THE DEEPENING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT
HAS INVADED NM. THIS AXIS OR DEFORMATION ZONE WILL MOST LIKELY
STRETCH FROM ROUGHLY GALLUP TO TAOS...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION WITH THE
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE AREA...BUT SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE
ABLE TO PROPAGATE AT FAIRLY BRISK SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. THIS
MIGHT SUGGEST A LOWER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER THE
PROBABILITY FOR TRAINING CELLS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER THE SAME
AREAS WILL BE HIGH...AND THE JUICY PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES WILL
PUSH RAINDROP SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS TOWARD A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION
WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL. THUS...FELT PRUDENT TO REISSUE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. HAVE KEPT ALL OF YESTERDAY`S ZONES WITH ADDITION OF
THE WESTERN ZONES NEAR AZ AND SOME OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES.
THESE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES ARE DISPLACED FROM THE DEFORMATION
ZONE...BUT WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF JUICE/INSTABILITY/OROGRAPHICS TO
WORK WITH...AND THE NAM/HRRR MODELS ARE GENERATING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF QPF THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF ACTIVITY
ALREADY ONGOING...THERE MAY BE A LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON LULL
IN CONVECTION BEFORE THINGS DE-STABILIZE AGAIN...HOWEVER HAVE KEPT
FORECAST POPS SIMPLISTIC WITH JUST 12 HOUR INTERVALS.

FRIDAY`S FORECAST WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON WHAT TRANSPIRES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OR
TWO IS HIGH. THESE CAN CERTAINLY BE CONVECTIVE ENHANCERS INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS...BUT CAN ALSO PRODUCE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND
MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE IN ADJACENT AREAS. FOR NOW...A SIMPLISTIC
GENERALIZED APPROACH HAS BEEN BUILT INTO THE FORECAST...KEEPING
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA FAVORED FOR
STORMS AS THE UPPER HIGH EVOLVES TOWARD A RE-ESTABLISHMENT OVER
NM.

THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER NM INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING UP
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
ON HAND...AND WHILE POPS MAY SLIGHTLY DECREASE FROM
FRIDAY...CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN
TO WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE HEIGHTS ARE SHOWN TO RISE SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POTENTIALLY DISCONNECTING THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
SOME FROM ITS MEXICAN ORIGIN. STILL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH MORE NUMEROUS CELLS OVER THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AREAS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NM. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OR WITHIN REACH OF NM THROUGH MOST
OF THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK PER MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
MOISTURE WILL BE RECYCLED OVER THE STATE WITH OCCASIONAL
INTRUSIONS FROM THE SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO RAIN-
COOLING AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.

A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING TREND FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO WITH NO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INPUT. WETTING RAIN
FOOTPRINT SHOULD SHRINK A BIT EACH DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DROP A BIT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK...WITH WITH 20-30% FORECAST BY
THURSDAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>537.

&&

$$

42



000
FXUS65 KABQ 301151 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
551 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
OUTSIDE OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST WITH CONVECTION TODAY...ALTHOUGH SHORT-LIVED IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. TERMINAL LEAST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED IS
KROW...WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...339 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO NEW MEXICO...AND THIS
WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR MANY NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.
RAINFALL COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
REPEATED STORMS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN SHOULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY AND SLIGHTLY LESSEN INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY REGAINS SOME STRENGTH OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. EXPECT
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN...SOME OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY CENTROID OF THE UPPER HIGH IS OVER TX...BUT A
SECONDARY...AND SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED...CENTROID IS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE THAT COULD PRODUCE OPTIMAL FLOW ALOFT
AND SOME STRETCHING THAT WOULD HELP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPLOIT THE DEEPENING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT
HAS INVADED NM. THIS AXIS OR DEFORMATION ZONE WILL MOST LIKELY
STRETCH FROM ROUGHLY GALLUP TO TAOS...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION WITH THE
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE AREA...BUT SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE
ABLE TO PROPAGATE AT FAIRLY BRISK SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. THIS
MIGHT SUGGEST A LOWER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER THE
PROBABILITY FOR TRAINING CELLS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER THE SAME
AREAS WILL BE HIGH...AND THE JUICY PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES WILL
PUSH RAINDROP SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS TOWARD A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION
WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL. THUS...FELT PRUDENT TO REISSUE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. HAVE KEPT ALL OF YESTERDAY`S ZONES WITH ADDITION OF
THE WESTERN ZONES NEAR AZ AND SOME OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES.
THESE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES ARE DISPLACED FROM THE DEFORMATION
ZONE...BUT WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF JUICE/INSTABILITY/OROGRAPHICS TO
WORK WITH...AND THE NAM/HRRR MODELS ARE GENERATING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF QPF THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF ACTIVITY
ALREADY ONGOING...THERE MAY BE A LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON LULL
IN CONVECTION BEFORE THINGS DE-STABILIZE AGAIN...HOWEVER HAVE KEPT
FORECAST POPS SIMPLISTIC WITH JUST 12 HOUR INTERVALS.

FRIDAY`S FORECAST WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON WHAT TRANSPIRES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OR
TWO IS HIGH. THESE CAN CERTAINLY BE CONVECTIVE ENHANCERS INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS...BUT CAN ALSO PRODUCE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND
MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE IN ADJACENT AREAS. FOR NOW...A SIMPLISTIC
GENERALIZED APPROACH HAS BEEN BUILT INTO THE FORECAST...KEEPING
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA FAVORED FOR
STORMS AS THE UPPER HIGH EVOLVES TOWARD A RE-ESTABLISHMENT OVER
NM.

THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER NM INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING UP
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
ON HAND...AND WHILE POPS MAY SLIGHTLY DECREASE FROM
FRIDAY...CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN
TO WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE HEIGHTS ARE SHOWN TO RISE SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POTENTIALLY DISCONNECTING THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
SOME FROM ITS MEXICAN ORIGIN. STILL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH MORE NUMEROUS CELLS OVER THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AREAS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NM. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OR WITHIN REACH OF NM THROUGH MOST
OF THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK PER MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
MOISTURE WILL BE RECYCLED OVER THE STATE WITH OCCASIONAL
INTRUSIONS FROM THE SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO RAIN-
COOLING AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.

A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING TREND FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO WITH NO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INPUT. WETTING RAIN
FOOTPRINT SHOULD SHRINK A BIT EACH DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DROP A BIT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK...WITH WITH 20-30% FORECAST BY
THURSDAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>537.

&&

$$

52




000
FXUS65 KABQ 301151 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
551 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
OUTSIDE OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST WITH CONVECTION TODAY...ALTHOUGH SHORT-LIVED IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. TERMINAL LEAST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED IS
KROW...WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...339 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO NEW MEXICO...AND THIS
WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR MANY NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.
RAINFALL COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
REPEATED STORMS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN SHOULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY AND SLIGHTLY LESSEN INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY REGAINS SOME STRENGTH OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. EXPECT
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN...SOME OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY CENTROID OF THE UPPER HIGH IS OVER TX...BUT A
SECONDARY...AND SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED...CENTROID IS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE THAT COULD PRODUCE OPTIMAL FLOW ALOFT
AND SOME STRETCHING THAT WOULD HELP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPLOIT THE DEEPENING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT
HAS INVADED NM. THIS AXIS OR DEFORMATION ZONE WILL MOST LIKELY
STRETCH FROM ROUGHLY GALLUP TO TAOS...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION WITH THE
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE AREA...BUT SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE
ABLE TO PROPAGATE AT FAIRLY BRISK SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. THIS
MIGHT SUGGEST A LOWER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER THE
PROBABILITY FOR TRAINING CELLS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER THE SAME
AREAS WILL BE HIGH...AND THE JUICY PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES WILL
PUSH RAINDROP SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS TOWARD A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION
WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL. THUS...FELT PRUDENT TO REISSUE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. HAVE KEPT ALL OF YESTERDAY`S ZONES WITH ADDITION OF
THE WESTERN ZONES NEAR AZ AND SOME OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES.
THESE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES ARE DISPLACED FROM THE DEFORMATION
ZONE...BUT WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF JUICE/INSTABILITY/OROGRAPHICS TO
WORK WITH...AND THE NAM/HRRR MODELS ARE GENERATING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF QPF THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF ACTIVITY
ALREADY ONGOING...THERE MAY BE A LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON LULL
IN CONVECTION BEFORE THINGS DE-STABILIZE AGAIN...HOWEVER HAVE KEPT
FORECAST POPS SIMPLISTIC WITH JUST 12 HOUR INTERVALS.

FRIDAY`S FORECAST WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON WHAT TRANSPIRES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OR
TWO IS HIGH. THESE CAN CERTAINLY BE CONVECTIVE ENHANCERS INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS...BUT CAN ALSO PRODUCE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND
MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE IN ADJACENT AREAS. FOR NOW...A SIMPLISTIC
GENERALIZED APPROACH HAS BEEN BUILT INTO THE FORECAST...KEEPING
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA FAVORED FOR
STORMS AS THE UPPER HIGH EVOLVES TOWARD A RE-ESTABLISHMENT OVER
NM.

THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER NM INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING UP
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
ON HAND...AND WHILE POPS MAY SLIGHTLY DECREASE FROM
FRIDAY...CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN
TO WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE HEIGHTS ARE SHOWN TO RISE SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POTENTIALLY DISCONNECTING THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
SOME FROM ITS MEXICAN ORIGIN. STILL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH MORE NUMEROUS CELLS OVER THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AREAS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NM. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OR WITHIN REACH OF NM THROUGH MOST
OF THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK PER MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
MOISTURE WILL BE RECYCLED OVER THE STATE WITH OCCASIONAL
INTRUSIONS FROM THE SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO RAIN-
COOLING AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.

A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING TREND FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO WITH NO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INPUT. WETTING RAIN
FOOTPRINT SHOULD SHRINK A BIT EACH DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DROP A BIT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK...WITH WITH 20-30% FORECAST BY
THURSDAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>537.

&&

$$

52



000
FXUS65 KABQ 301151 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
551 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST
OUTSIDE OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MVFR CONDITIONS
ARE FORECAST WITH CONVECTION TODAY...ALTHOUGH SHORT-LIVED IFR
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. TERMINAL LEAST LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED IS
KROW...WITH TEMPO GROUPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS AT THE REMAINING TAF
SITES FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...339 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO NEW MEXICO...AND THIS
WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR MANY NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.
RAINFALL COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
REPEATED STORMS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN SHOULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY AND SLIGHTLY LESSEN INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY REGAINS SOME STRENGTH OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. EXPECT
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN...SOME OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY CENTROID OF THE UPPER HIGH IS OVER TX...BUT A
SECONDARY...AND SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED...CENTROID IS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE THAT COULD PRODUCE OPTIMAL FLOW ALOFT
AND SOME STRETCHING THAT WOULD HELP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPLOIT THE DEEPENING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT
HAS INVADED NM. THIS AXIS OR DEFORMATION ZONE WILL MOST LIKELY
STRETCH FROM ROUGHLY GALLUP TO TAOS...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION WITH THE
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE AREA...BUT SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE
ABLE TO PROPAGATE AT FAIRLY BRISK SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. THIS
MIGHT SUGGEST A LOWER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER THE
PROBABILITY FOR TRAINING CELLS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER THE SAME
AREAS WILL BE HIGH...AND THE JUICY PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES WILL
PUSH RAINDROP SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS TOWARD A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION
WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL. THUS...FELT PRUDENT TO REISSUE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. HAVE KEPT ALL OF YESTERDAY`S ZONES WITH ADDITION OF
THE WESTERN ZONES NEAR AZ AND SOME OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES.
THESE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES ARE DISPLACED FROM THE DEFORMATION
ZONE...BUT WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF JUICE/INSTABILITY/OROGRAPHICS TO
WORK WITH...AND THE NAM/HRRR MODELS ARE GENERATING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF QPF THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF ACTIVITY
ALREADY ONGOING...THERE MAY BE A LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON LULL
IN CONVECTION BEFORE THINGS DE-STABILIZE AGAIN...HOWEVER HAVE KEPT
FORECAST POPS SIMPLISTIC WITH JUST 12 HOUR INTERVALS.

FRIDAY`S FORECAST WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON WHAT TRANSPIRES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OR
TWO IS HIGH. THESE CAN CERTAINLY BE CONVECTIVE ENHANCERS INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS...BUT CAN ALSO PRODUCE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND
MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE IN ADJACENT AREAS. FOR NOW...A SIMPLISTIC
GENERALIZED APPROACH HAS BEEN BUILT INTO THE FORECAST...KEEPING
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA FAVORED FOR
STORMS AS THE UPPER HIGH EVOLVES TOWARD A RE-ESTABLISHMENT OVER
NM.

THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER NM INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING UP
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
ON HAND...AND WHILE POPS MAY SLIGHTLY DECREASE FROM
FRIDAY...CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN
TO WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE HEIGHTS ARE SHOWN TO RISE SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POTENTIALLY DISCONNECTING THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
SOME FROM ITS MEXICAN ORIGIN. STILL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH MORE NUMEROUS CELLS OVER THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AREAS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NM. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OR WITHIN REACH OF NM THROUGH MOST
OF THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK PER MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
MOISTURE WILL BE RECYCLED OVER THE STATE WITH OCCASIONAL
INTRUSIONS FROM THE SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO RAIN-
COOLING AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.

A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING TREND FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO WITH NO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INPUT. WETTING RAIN
FOOTPRINT SHOULD SHRINK A BIT EACH DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DROP A BIT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK...WITH WITH 20-30% FORECAST BY
THURSDAY.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>537.

&&

$$

52




000
FXUS65 KABQ 300939
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
339 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO NEW MEXICO...AND THIS
WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR MANY NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.
RAINFALL COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
REPEATED STORMS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN SHOULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY AND SLIGHTLY LESSEN INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY REGAINS SOME STRENGTH OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. EXPECT
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN...SOME OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY CENTROID OF THE UPPER HIGH IS OVER TX...BUT A
SECONDARY...AND SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED...CENTROID IS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE THAT COULD PRODUCE OPTIMAL FLOW ALOFT
AND SOME STRETCHING THAT WOULD HELP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPLOIT THE DEEPENING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT
HAS INVADED NM. THIS AXIS OR DEFORMATION ZONE WILL MOST LIKELY
STRETCH FROM ROUGHLY GALLUP TO TAOS...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION WITH THE
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE AREA...BUT SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE
ABLE TO PROPAGATE AT FAIRLY BRISK SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. THIS
MIGHT SUGGEST A LOWER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER THE
PROBABILITY FOR TRAINING CELLS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER THE SAME
AREAS WILL BE HIGH...AND THE JUICY PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES WILL
PUSH RAINDROP SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS TOWARD A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION
WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL. THUS...FELT PRUDENT TO REISSUE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. HAVE KEPT ALL OF YESTERDAY`S ZONES WITH ADDITION OF
THE WESTERN ZONES NEAR AZ AND SOME OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES.
THESE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES ARE DISPLACED FROM THE DEFORMATION
ZONE...BUT WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF JUICE/INSTABILITY/OROGRAPHICS TO
WORK WITH...AND THE NAM/HRRR MODELS ARE GENERATING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF QPF THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF ACTIVITY
ALREADY ONGOING...THERE MAY BE A LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON LULL
IN CONVECTION BEFORE THINGS DE-STABILIZE AGAIN...HOWEVER HAVE KEPT
FORECAST POPS SIMPLISTIC WITH JUST 12 HOUR INTERVALS.

FRIDAY`S FORECAST WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON WHAT TRANSPIRES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OR
TWO IS HIGH. THESE CAN CERTAINLY BE CONVECTIVE ENHANCERS INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS...BUT CAN ALSO PRODUCE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND
MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE IN ADJACENT AREAS. FOR NOW...A SIMPLISTIC
GENERALIZED APPROACH HAS BEEN BUILT INTO THE FORECAST...KEEPING
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA FAVORED FOR
STORMS AS THE UPPER HIGH EVOLVES TOWARD A RE-ESTABLISHMENT OVER
NM.

THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER NM INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING UP
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
ON HAND...AND WHILE POPS MAY SLIGHTLY DECREASE FROM
FRIDAY...CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN
TO WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE HEIGHTS ARE SHOWN TO RISE SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POTENTIALLY DISCONNECTING THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
SOME FROM ITS MEXICAN ORIGIN. STILL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH MORE NUMEROUS CELLS OVER THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AREAS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NM. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OR WITHIN REACH OF NM THROUGH MOST
OF THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK PER MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
MOISTURE WILL BE RECYCLED OVER THE STATE WITH OCCASIONAL
INTRUSIONS FROM THE SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO RAIN-
COOLING AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.

A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING TREND FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO WITH NO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INPUT. WETTING RAIN
FOOTPRINT SHOULD SHRINK A BIT EACH DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DROP A BIT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK...WITH WITH 20-30% FORECAST BY
THURSDAY.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN NM AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NM. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE ACROSS NE NM...WITH
TS CONTINUING ACROSS SE AND EC NM. MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM. IF STORMS CAN DIMINISH NEAR/ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS...EXPECT IFR TO
POTENTIALLY LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM. ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA IS EXPECTED
ON THURS..FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF NE NM. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THIS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

34
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  83  62  84  60 /  50  50  40  50
DULCE...........................  73  52  73  51 /  60  60  70  60
CUBA............................  75  53  78  53 /  70  90  70  70
GALLUP..........................  81  55  80  54 /  60  70  50  50
EL MORRO........................  75  53  76  52 /  70  80  70  60
GRANTS..........................  78  55  77  55 /  60  80  60  50
QUEMADO.........................  76  56  79  55 /  60  70  60  40
GLENWOOD........................  79  59  83  57 /  60  50  40  40
CHAMA...........................  71  49  71  49 /  80  70  80  70
LOS ALAMOS......................  73  57  74  58 /  70  90  80  70
PECOS...........................  70  55  72  55 /  80  90  80  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  72  53  72  52 /  80  70  80  70
RED RIVER.......................  60  47  60  46 /  90  80  90  80
ANGEL FIRE......................  63  50  64  49 /  90  90  80  70
TAOS............................  75  53  75  52 /  50  60  50  60
MORA............................  68  53  69  52 /  80  90  80  70
ESPANOLA........................  80  58  79  57 /  50  70  50  50
SANTA FE........................  76  58  77  58 /  70  80  70  70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  78  57  79  58 /  60  80  50  60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  79  61  80  63 /  70  80  60  60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  81  64  82  66 /  60  70  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  83  59  84  61 /  50  70  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  83  61  84  63 /  60  70  40  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  84  63  86  63 /  50  70  30  30
RIO RANCHO......................  82  63  83  63 /  60  70  50  40
SOCORRO.........................  89  63  90  64 /  40  30  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  77  58  78  58 /  80  80  60  60
TIJERAS.........................  78  59  79  59 /  80  80  60  60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  80  55  81  55 /  60  70  50  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  74  57  76  56 /  70  60  60  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  78  58  81  58 /  60  50  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  83  61  85  61 /  40  30  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  73  53  75  51 /  50  40  40  30
CAPULIN.........................  72  56  73  54 /  70  60  60  60
RATON...........................  75  58  75  56 /  60  70  60  50
SPRINGER........................  76  59  76  58 /  60  80  60  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  72  55  74  55 /  70  80  60  60
CLAYTON.........................  82  63  81  62 /  50  50  50  50
ROY.............................  76  60  77  60 /  60  80  50  60
CONCHAS.........................  84  68  87  66 /  50  60  40  40
SANTA ROSA......................  84  65  86  64 /  40  50  30  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  86  66  88  67 /  40  50  30  30
CLOVIS..........................  85  66  87  65 /  30  30  20  20
PORTALES........................  86  67  88  67 /  20  30  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  86  67  89  66 /  40  40  30  20
ROSWELL.........................  92  69  94  67 /  20  20  20  10
PICACHO.........................  86  62  87  62 /  40  30  30  20
ELK.............................  79  59  80  59 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>537.

&&

$$

52



000
FXUS65 KABQ 300939
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
339 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A VERY MOIST AIRMASS CONTINUES TO PUSH INTO NEW MEXICO...AND THIS
WILL KEEP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GOING
TODAY AND TONIGHT FOR MANY NORTHERN TO CENTRAL PARTS OF THE STATE.
RAINFALL COULD BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES WITH SOME AREAS SEEING
REPEATED STORMS THAT COULD LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. THE ACTIVE
THUNDERSTORM PATTERN SHOULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY...AND WILL ONLY
GRADUALLY AND SLIGHTLY LESSEN INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
SLOWLY REGAINS SOME STRENGTH OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. EXPECT
HIGH PROBABILITIES FOR RAIN...SOME OF WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE
HEAVY AT TIMES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
PRIMARY CENTROID OF THE UPPER HIGH IS OVER TX...BUT A
SECONDARY...AND SOMEWHAT ILL-DEFINED...CENTROID IS BECOMING
ESTABLISHED NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS. THIS SHOULD PRODUCE A
MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE THAT COULD PRODUCE OPTIMAL FLOW ALOFT
AND SOME STRETCHING THAT WOULD HELP SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPLOIT THE DEEPENING SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE THAT
HAS INVADED NM. THIS AXIS OR DEFORMATION ZONE WILL MOST LIKELY
STRETCH FROM ROUGHLY GALLUP TO TAOS...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION
CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.
THE FLOW ALOFT WILL OBVIOUSLY BE VARIABLE IN DIRECTION WITH THE
DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE AREA...BUT SOME OF THE CONVECTION MAY BE
ABLE TO PROPAGATE AT FAIRLY BRISK SPEEDS OF 10 TO 20 MPH. THIS
MIGHT SUGGEST A LOWER THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING...HOWEVER THE
PROBABILITY FOR TRAINING CELLS REPEATEDLY MOVING OVER THE SAME
AREAS WILL BE HIGH...AND THE JUICY PWATS OF 1.2 TO 1.4 INCHES WILL
PUSH RAINDROP SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS TOWARD A TROPICAL CLASSIFICATION
WITH VERY EFFICIENT RAINFALL. THUS...FELT PRUDENT TO REISSUE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH. HAVE KEPT ALL OF YESTERDAY`S ZONES WITH ADDITION OF
THE WESTERN ZONES NEAR AZ AND SOME OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES.
THESE SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES ARE DISPLACED FROM THE DEFORMATION
ZONE...BUT WILL STILL HAVE PLENTY OF JUICE/INSTABILITY/OROGRAPHICS TO
WORK WITH...AND THE NAM/HRRR MODELS ARE GENERATING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF QPF THIS AFTERNOON. GIVEN THE ABUNDANCE OF ACTIVITY
ALREADY ONGOING...THERE MAY BE A LATE MORNING-MID AFTERNOON LULL
IN CONVECTION BEFORE THINGS DE-STABILIZE AGAIN...HOWEVER HAVE KEPT
FORECAST POPS SIMPLISTIC WITH JUST 12 HOUR INTERVALS.

FRIDAY`S FORECAST WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON WHAT TRANSPIRES TODAY AND
TONIGHT...AS THE POTENTIAL FOR A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE VORTEX OR
TWO IS HIGH. THESE CAN CERTAINLY BE CONVECTIVE ENHANCERS INTO THE
DAYTIME HOURS...BUT CAN ALSO PRODUCE TOO MUCH CLOUD COVER AND
MESOSCALE SUBSIDENCE IN ADJACENT AREAS. FOR NOW...A SIMPLISTIC
GENERALIZED APPROACH HAS BEEN BUILT INTO THE FORECAST...KEEPING
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA FAVORED FOR
STORMS AS THE UPPER HIGH EVOLVES TOWARD A RE-ESTABLISHMENT OVER
NM.

THE HIGH SHOULD CONTINUE TO REMAIN OVER NM INTO SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH AN ATTENDANT HIGHLY AMPLIFIED RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING UP
INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE
ON HAND...AND WHILE POPS MAY SLIGHTLY DECREASE FROM
FRIDAY...CHANCES ARE RELATIVELY HIGH...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN
TO WESTERN TIERS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE HEIGHTS ARE SHOWN TO RISE SLIGHTLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...POTENTIALLY DISCONNECTING THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME
SOME FROM ITS MEXICAN ORIGIN. STILL...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE THE RULE WITH MORE NUMEROUS CELLS OVER THE
CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED OROGRAPHIC AREAS OF NORTHERN AND WESTERN
NM. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER OR WITHIN REACH OF NM THROUGH MOST
OF THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK PER MEDIUM RANGE MODEL SOLUTIONS.
MOISTURE WILL BE RECYCLED OVER THE STATE WITH OCCASIONAL
INTRUSIONS FROM THE SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
GOOD CHANCES FOR SOAKING RAINS WILL CHARACTERIZE THE FORECAST
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH A MOISTURE RICH ATMOSPHERE IN
PLACE. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL THANKS TO RAIN-
COOLING AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER.

A GRADUAL WARMING/DRYING TREND FORECAST FOR LATE IN THE WEEKEND
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH REMAINS CENTERED
OVER NEW MEXICO WITH NO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INPUT. WETTING RAIN
FOOTPRINT SHOULD SHRINK A BIT EACH DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES
REACHING BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY TUESDAY. MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
WILL DROP A BIT EACH DAY NEXT WEEK...WITH WITH 20-30% FORECAST BY
THURSDAY.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN NM AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NM. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE ACROSS NE NM...WITH
TS CONTINUING ACROSS SE AND EC NM. MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM. IF STORMS CAN DIMINISH NEAR/ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS...EXPECT IFR TO
POTENTIALLY LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM. ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA IS EXPECTED
ON THURS..FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF NE NM. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THIS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

34
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  83  62  84  60 /  50  50  40  50
DULCE...........................  73  52  73  51 /  60  60  70  60
CUBA............................  75  53  78  53 /  70  90  70  70
GALLUP..........................  81  55  80  54 /  60  70  50  50
EL MORRO........................  75  53  76  52 /  70  80  70  60
GRANTS..........................  78  55  77  55 /  60  80  60  50
QUEMADO.........................  76  56  79  55 /  60  70  60  40
GLENWOOD........................  79  59  83  57 /  60  50  40  40
CHAMA...........................  71  49  71  49 /  80  70  80  70
LOS ALAMOS......................  73  57  74  58 /  70  90  80  70
PECOS...........................  70  55  72  55 /  80  90  80  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  72  53  72  52 /  80  70  80  70
RED RIVER.......................  60  47  60  46 /  90  80  90  80
ANGEL FIRE......................  63  50  64  49 /  90  90  80  70
TAOS............................  75  53  75  52 /  50  60  50  60
MORA............................  68  53  69  52 /  80  90  80  70
ESPANOLA........................  80  58  79  57 /  50  70  50  50
SANTA FE........................  76  58  77  58 /  70  80  70  70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  78  57  79  58 /  60  80  50  60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  79  61  80  63 /  70  80  60  60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  81  64  82  66 /  60  70  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  83  59  84  61 /  50  70  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  83  61  84  63 /  60  70  40  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  84  63  86  63 /  50  70  30  30
RIO RANCHO......................  82  63  83  63 /  60  70  50  40
SOCORRO.........................  89  63  90  64 /  40  30  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  77  58  78  58 /  80  80  60  60
TIJERAS.........................  78  59  79  59 /  80  80  60  60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  80  55  81  55 /  60  70  50  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  74  57  76  56 /  70  60  60  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  78  58  81  58 /  60  50  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  83  61  85  61 /  40  30  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  73  53  75  51 /  50  40  40  30
CAPULIN.........................  72  56  73  54 /  70  60  60  60
RATON...........................  75  58  75  56 /  60  70  60  50
SPRINGER........................  76  59  76  58 /  60  80  60  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  72  55  74  55 /  70  80  60  60
CLAYTON.........................  82  63  81  62 /  50  50  50  50
ROY.............................  76  60  77  60 /  60  80  50  60
CONCHAS.........................  84  68  87  66 /  50  60  40  40
SANTA ROSA......................  84  65  86  64 /  40  50  30  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  86  66  88  67 /  40  50  30  30
CLOVIS..........................  85  66  87  65 /  30  30  20  20
PORTALES........................  86  67  88  67 /  20  30  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  86  67  89  66 /  40  40  30  20
ROSWELL.........................  92  69  94  67 /  20  20  20  10
PICACHO.........................  86  62  87  62 /  40  30  30  20
ELK.............................  79  59  80  59 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501>537.

&&

$$

52




000
FXUS65 KABQ 300551 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1151 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN NM AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NM. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE ACROSS NE NM...WITH
TS CONTINUING ACROSS SE AND EC NM. MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM. IF STORMS CAN DIMINISH NEAR/ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS...EXPECT IFR TO
POTENTIALLY LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM. ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA IS EXPECTED
ON THURS..FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF NE NM. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THIS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...322 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT UNDERCUTTING RICH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
AREAS. A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND DOWNWARD DECREASING THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT AFTER THURSDAY. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...READINGS WILL TREND UPWARD THIS
WEEKEND WITH MOST PLACES REACHING NEAR NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FINISH PUSHING WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SPANNING THE
AREA ALOFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN WEAK
STEERING FLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME
HEFTY QPF VALUES FROM SLOW MOVING OR EVEN STALLING CELLS AND
CLUSTERS OF CELLS FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST AREAS. TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS TO THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME HEAVIER
RAIN AMOUNTS. WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO NEARLY 1.5 INCH RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM NEAR ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE TO NEAR
CLAYTON AND TUCUMCARI...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER VALUES OVER 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

AN EASTERLY WAVE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE NORTHWARD NEAR THE
NM/AZ BORDER THURSDAY...THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
THURSDAY EVENING AND EASTWARD ALONG THE NM/CO BORDER FRIDAY. THERE
ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THIS TIMING...BUT THE TRACK IS
PRETTY SIMILAR. THIS WILL KEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME PRETTY
STRONG AND VERY ACTIVE. PWATS SHOULD GENERALLY VARY AROUND 1 TO
1.10 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
FORECAST. ANTECEDENT MOISTURE FROM TODAY AND THE RISK OF MORE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY MAY CAUSE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING TO CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTHERN AREAS.

THE CENTER OF A DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE WOBBLING AROUND NM THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK. THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE
ARCING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PWATS
NEAR AND OVER AN INCH KEEPING WETTING RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING WEST WILL ENHANCE STORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT
GUSTY TO ERRATIC WINDS DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NEAR STORMS.
BECAUSE OF SLOW STORM MOTION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GAP WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITHIN THE CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLEY/TIJERAS CANYON TONIGHT
AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CANYONS. GAP WINDS
LOOK TO TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY MORNING.

AMPLE MOISTURE WITH STATIONARY STORM MOTIONS WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING
STORM ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE STATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS
HUMIDITY VALUES TREND UPWARD FOLLOWING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL RECENTER BACK OVER THE STATE LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...THEN HOVER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...THEN SHIFT WESTWARD BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND UPWARD AS RAIN FOOTPRINTS GRADUALLY DECREASE EACH DAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
 NMZ501-503-504-506-507-510>519-521>523-527>537.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 300551 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1151 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN NM AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NM. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE ACROSS NE NM...WITH
TS CONTINUING ACROSS SE AND EC NM. MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM. IF STORMS CAN DIMINISH NEAR/ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS...EXPECT IFR TO
POTENTIALLY LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM. ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA IS EXPECTED
ON THURS..FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF NE NM. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THIS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...322 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT UNDERCUTTING RICH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
AREAS. A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND DOWNWARD DECREASING THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT AFTER THURSDAY. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...READINGS WILL TREND UPWARD THIS
WEEKEND WITH MOST PLACES REACHING NEAR NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FINISH PUSHING WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SPANNING THE
AREA ALOFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN WEAK
STEERING FLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME
HEFTY QPF VALUES FROM SLOW MOVING OR EVEN STALLING CELLS AND
CLUSTERS OF CELLS FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST AREAS. TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS TO THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME HEAVIER
RAIN AMOUNTS. WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO NEARLY 1.5 INCH RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM NEAR ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE TO NEAR
CLAYTON AND TUCUMCARI...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER VALUES OVER 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

AN EASTERLY WAVE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE NORTHWARD NEAR THE
NM/AZ BORDER THURSDAY...THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
THURSDAY EVENING AND EASTWARD ALONG THE NM/CO BORDER FRIDAY. THERE
ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THIS TIMING...BUT THE TRACK IS
PRETTY SIMILAR. THIS WILL KEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME PRETTY
STRONG AND VERY ACTIVE. PWATS SHOULD GENERALLY VARY AROUND 1 TO
1.10 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
FORECAST. ANTECEDENT MOISTURE FROM TODAY AND THE RISK OF MORE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY MAY CAUSE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING TO CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTHERN AREAS.

THE CENTER OF A DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE WOBBLING AROUND NM THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK. THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE
ARCING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PWATS
NEAR AND OVER AN INCH KEEPING WETTING RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING WEST WILL ENHANCE STORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT
GUSTY TO ERRATIC WINDS DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NEAR STORMS.
BECAUSE OF SLOW STORM MOTION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GAP WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITHIN THE CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLEY/TIJERAS CANYON TONIGHT
AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CANYONS. GAP WINDS
LOOK TO TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY MORNING.

AMPLE MOISTURE WITH STATIONARY STORM MOTIONS WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING
STORM ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE STATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS
HUMIDITY VALUES TREND UPWARD FOLLOWING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL RECENTER BACK OVER THE STATE LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...THEN HOVER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...THEN SHIFT WESTWARD BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND UPWARD AS RAIN FOOTPRINTS GRADUALLY DECREASE EACH DAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
 NMZ501-503-504-506-507-510>519-521>523-527>537.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 300551 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1151 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN NM AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NM. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE ACROSS NE NM...WITH
TS CONTINUING ACROSS SE AND EC NM. MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM. IF STORMS CAN DIMINISH NEAR/ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS...EXPECT IFR TO
POTENTIALLY LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM. ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA IS EXPECTED
ON THURS..FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF NE NM. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THIS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...322 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT UNDERCUTTING RICH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
AREAS. A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND DOWNWARD DECREASING THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT AFTER THURSDAY. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...READINGS WILL TREND UPWARD THIS
WEEKEND WITH MOST PLACES REACHING NEAR NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FINISH PUSHING WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SPANNING THE
AREA ALOFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN WEAK
STEERING FLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME
HEFTY QPF VALUES FROM SLOW MOVING OR EVEN STALLING CELLS AND
CLUSTERS OF CELLS FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST AREAS. TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS TO THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME HEAVIER
RAIN AMOUNTS. WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO NEARLY 1.5 INCH RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM NEAR ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE TO NEAR
CLAYTON AND TUCUMCARI...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER VALUES OVER 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

AN EASTERLY WAVE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE NORTHWARD NEAR THE
NM/AZ BORDER THURSDAY...THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
THURSDAY EVENING AND EASTWARD ALONG THE NM/CO BORDER FRIDAY. THERE
ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THIS TIMING...BUT THE TRACK IS
PRETTY SIMILAR. THIS WILL KEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME PRETTY
STRONG AND VERY ACTIVE. PWATS SHOULD GENERALLY VARY AROUND 1 TO
1.10 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
FORECAST. ANTECEDENT MOISTURE FROM TODAY AND THE RISK OF MORE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY MAY CAUSE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING TO CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTHERN AREAS.

THE CENTER OF A DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE WOBBLING AROUND NM THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK. THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE
ARCING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PWATS
NEAR AND OVER AN INCH KEEPING WETTING RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING WEST WILL ENHANCE STORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT
GUSTY TO ERRATIC WINDS DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NEAR STORMS.
BECAUSE OF SLOW STORM MOTION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GAP WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITHIN THE CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLEY/TIJERAS CANYON TONIGHT
AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CANYONS. GAP WINDS
LOOK TO TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY MORNING.

AMPLE MOISTURE WITH STATIONARY STORM MOTIONS WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING
STORM ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE STATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS
HUMIDITY VALUES TREND UPWARD FOLLOWING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL RECENTER BACK OVER THE STATE LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...THEN HOVER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...THEN SHIFT WESTWARD BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND UPWARD AS RAIN FOOTPRINTS GRADUALLY DECREASE EACH DAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
 NMZ501-503-504-506-507-510>519-521>523-527>537.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 300551 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1151 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF
EASTERN NM AND PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST NM. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIP TYPE ACROSS NE NM...WITH
TS CONTINUING ACROSS SE AND EC NM. MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORM. IF STORMS CAN DIMINISH NEAR/ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS...EXPECT IFR TO
POTENTIALLY LIFR CIGS TO DEVELOP. LOW CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM. ANOTHER ROUND OF TSRA IS EXPECTED
ON THURS..FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN AND PORTIONS OF NE NM. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THIS ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...322 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT UNDERCUTTING RICH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
AREAS. A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND DOWNWARD DECREASING THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT AFTER THURSDAY. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...READINGS WILL TREND UPWARD THIS
WEEKEND WITH MOST PLACES REACHING NEAR NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FINISH PUSHING WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SPANNING THE
AREA ALOFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN WEAK
STEERING FLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME
HEFTY QPF VALUES FROM SLOW MOVING OR EVEN STALLING CELLS AND
CLUSTERS OF CELLS FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST AREAS. TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS TO THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME HEAVIER
RAIN AMOUNTS. WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO NEARLY 1.5 INCH RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM NEAR ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE TO NEAR
CLAYTON AND TUCUMCARI...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER VALUES OVER 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

AN EASTERLY WAVE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE NORTHWARD NEAR THE
NM/AZ BORDER THURSDAY...THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
THURSDAY EVENING AND EASTWARD ALONG THE NM/CO BORDER FRIDAY. THERE
ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THIS TIMING...BUT THE TRACK IS
PRETTY SIMILAR. THIS WILL KEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME PRETTY
STRONG AND VERY ACTIVE. PWATS SHOULD GENERALLY VARY AROUND 1 TO
1.10 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
FORECAST. ANTECEDENT MOISTURE FROM TODAY AND THE RISK OF MORE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY MAY CAUSE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING TO CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTHERN AREAS.

THE CENTER OF A DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE WOBBLING AROUND NM THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK. THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE
ARCING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PWATS
NEAR AND OVER AN INCH KEEPING WETTING RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING WEST WILL ENHANCE STORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT
GUSTY TO ERRATIC WINDS DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NEAR STORMS.
BECAUSE OF SLOW STORM MOTION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GAP WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITHIN THE CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLEY/TIJERAS CANYON TONIGHT
AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CANYONS. GAP WINDS
LOOK TO TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY MORNING.

AMPLE MOISTURE WITH STATIONARY STORM MOTIONS WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING
STORM ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE STATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS
HUMIDITY VALUES TREND UPWARD FOLLOWING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL RECENTER BACK OVER THE STATE LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...THEN HOVER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...THEN SHIFT WESTWARD BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND UPWARD AS RAIN FOOTPRINTS GRADUALLY DECREASE EACH DAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
 NMZ501-503-504-506-507-510>519-521>523-527>537.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 300004 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
604 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM THRU THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND
ACROSS NE NM THIS EVENING WITH UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AFTER
MIDNIGHT... LOW CIGS...MVFR TO IFR CATEGORY...ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS...AND
IF SOME MODELS ARE TO BE BELIEVED...LOW CIGS MAY BE MORE
WIDESPREAD...EVEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM. SOME SHRA
ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF TSRA IS EXPECTED ON THURS..FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
PORTIONS OF NE NM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THIS
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...322 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT UNDERCUTTING RICH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
AREAS. A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND DOWNWARD DECREASING THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT AFTER THURSDAY. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...READINGS WILL TREND UPWARD THIS
WEEKEND WITH MOST PLACES REACHING NEAR NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FINISH PUSHING WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SPANNING THE
AREA ALOFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN WEAK
STEERING FLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME
HEFTY QPF VALUES FROM SLOW MOVING OR EVEN STALLING CELLS AND
CLUSTERS OF CELLS FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST AREAS. TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS TO THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME HEAVIER
RAIN AMOUNTS. WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO NEARLY 1.5 INCH RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM NEAR ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE TO NEAR
CLAYTON AND TUCUMCARI...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER VALUES OVER 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

AN EASTERLY WAVE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE NORTHWARD NEAR THE
NM/AZ BORDER THURSDAY...THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
THURSDAY EVENING AND EASTWARD ALONG THE NM/CO BORDER FRIDAY. THERE
ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THIS TIMING...BUT THE TRACK IS
PRETTY SIMILAR. THIS WILL KEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME PRETTY
STRONG AND VERY ACTIVE. PWATS SHOULD GENERALLY VARY AROUND 1 TO
1.10 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
FORECAST. ANTECEDENT MOISTURE FROM TODAY AND THE RISK OF MORE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY MAY CAUSE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING TO CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTHERN AREAS.

THE CENTER OF A DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE WOBBLING AROUND NM THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK. THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE
ARCING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PWATS
NEAR AND OVER AN INCH KEEPING WETTING RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING WEST WILL ENHANCE STORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT
GUSTY TO ERRATIC WINDS DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NEAR STORMS.
BECAUSE OF SLOW STORM MOTION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GAP WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITHIN THE CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLEY/TIJERAS CANYON TONIGHT
AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CANYONS. GAP WINDS
LOOK TO TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY MORNING.

AMPLE MOISTURE WITH STATIONARY STORM MOTIONS WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING
STORM ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE STATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS
HUMIDITY VALUES TREND UPWARD FOLLOWING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL RECENTER BACK OVER THE STATE LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...THEN HOVER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...THEN SHIFT WESTWARD BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND UPWARD AS RAIN FOOTPRINTS GRADUALLY DECREASE EACH DAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
 NMZ501-503-504-506-507-510>519-521>523-527>537.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 300004 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
604 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM THRU THE EVENING HOURS. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND
ACROSS NE NM THIS EVENING WITH UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING. BRIEF MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. AFTER
MIDNIGHT... LOW CIGS...MVFR TO IFR CATEGORY...ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTNS...AND
IF SOME MODELS ARE TO BE BELIEVED...LOW CIGS MAY BE MORE
WIDESPREAD...EVEN ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN NM. SOME SHRA
ACTIVITY SHOULD ALSO PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ANOTHER
ROUND OF TSRA IS EXPECTED ON THURS..FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN AND
PORTIONS OF NE NM. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN THIS
ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...322 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT UNDERCUTTING RICH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
AREAS. A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND DOWNWARD DECREASING THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT AFTER THURSDAY. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...READINGS WILL TREND UPWARD THIS
WEEKEND WITH MOST PLACES REACHING NEAR NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FINISH PUSHING WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SPANNING THE
AREA ALOFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN WEAK
STEERING FLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME
HEFTY QPF VALUES FROM SLOW MOVING OR EVEN STALLING CELLS AND
CLUSTERS OF CELLS FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST AREAS. TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS TO THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME HEAVIER
RAIN AMOUNTS. WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO NEARLY 1.5 INCH RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM NEAR ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE TO NEAR
CLAYTON AND TUCUMCARI...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER VALUES OVER 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

AN EASTERLY WAVE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE NORTHWARD NEAR THE
NM/AZ BORDER THURSDAY...THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
THURSDAY EVENING AND EASTWARD ALONG THE NM/CO BORDER FRIDAY. THERE
ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THIS TIMING...BUT THE TRACK IS
PRETTY SIMILAR. THIS WILL KEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME PRETTY
STRONG AND VERY ACTIVE. PWATS SHOULD GENERALLY VARY AROUND 1 TO
1.10 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
FORECAST. ANTECEDENT MOISTURE FROM TODAY AND THE RISK OF MORE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY MAY CAUSE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING TO CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTHERN AREAS.

THE CENTER OF A DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE WOBBLING AROUND NM THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK. THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE
ARCING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PWATS
NEAR AND OVER AN INCH KEEPING WETTING RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING WEST WILL ENHANCE STORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT
GUSTY TO ERRATIC WINDS DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NEAR STORMS.
BECAUSE OF SLOW STORM MOTION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GAP WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITHIN THE CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLEY/TIJERAS CANYON TONIGHT
AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CANYONS. GAP WINDS
LOOK TO TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY MORNING.

AMPLE MOISTURE WITH STATIONARY STORM MOTIONS WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING
STORM ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE STATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS
HUMIDITY VALUES TREND UPWARD FOLLOWING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL RECENTER BACK OVER THE STATE LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...THEN HOVER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...THEN SHIFT WESTWARD BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND UPWARD AS RAIN FOOTPRINTS GRADUALLY DECREASE EACH DAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 3 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
 NMZ501-503-504-506-507-510>519-521>523-527>537.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 292122
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
322 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT UNDERCUTTING RICH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
AREAS. A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND DOWNWARD DECREASING THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT AFTER THURSDAY. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...READINGS WILL TREND UPWARD THIS
WEEKEND WITH MOST PLACES REACHING NEAR NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FINISH PUSHING WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SPANNING THE
AREA ALOFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN WEAK
STEERING FLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME
HEFTY QPF VALUES FROM SLOW MOVING OR EVEN STALLING CELLS AND
CLUSTERS OF CELLS FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST AREAS. TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS TO THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME HEAVIER
RAIN AMOUNTS. WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO NEARLY 1.5 INCH RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM NEAR ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE TO NEAR
CLAYTON AND TUCUMCARI...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER VALUES OVER 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

AN EASTERLY WAVE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE NORTHWARD NEAR THE
NM/AZ BORDER THURSDAY...THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
THURSDAY EVENING AND EASTWARD ALONG THE NM/CO BORDER FRIDAY. THERE
ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THIS TIMING...BUT THE TRACK IS
PRETTY SIMILAR. THIS WILL KEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME PRETTY
STRONG AND VERY ACTIVE. PWATS SHOULD GENERALLY VARY AROUND 1 TO
1.10 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
FORECAST. ANTECEDENT MOISTURE FROM TODAY AND THE RISK OF MORE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY MAY CAUSE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING TO CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTHERN AREAS.

THE CENTER OF A DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE WOBBLING AROUND NM THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK. THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE
ARCING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PWATS
NEAR AND OVER AN INCH KEEPING WETTING RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING WEST WILL ENHANCE STORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT
GUSTY TO ERRATIC WINDS DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NEAR STORMS.
BECAUSE OF SLOW STORM MOTION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GAP WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITHIN THE CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLEY/TIJERAS CANYON TONIGHT
AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CANYONS. GAP WINDS
LOOK TO TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY MORNING.

AMPLE MOISTURE WITH STATIONARY STORM MOTIONS WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING
STORM ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE STATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS
HUMIDITY VALUES TREND UPWARD FOLLOWING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL RECENTER BACK OVER THE STATE LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...THEN HOVER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...THEN SHIFT WESTWARD BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND UPWARD AS RAIN FOOTPRINTS GRADUALLY DECREASE EACH DAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES WEST. MOST
TAF SITES WILL SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM AFTN TSRA BETWEEN
20-04Z...WITH LIMITED ACTIVITY AT KFMN & KROW. EXPECT GUSTY TO
ERRATIC WINDS NEAR TAF SITES ASSOCIATED WITH TS OUTFLOW. LOOK FOR
MVFR CIGS WITH TS ACTIVITY. IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AT
KGUP...KSAF...KLVS AS TS ACTIVITY LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  63  89  64  85 /  10  30  60  30
DULCE...........................  53  82  53  78 /  50  50  60  60
CUBA............................  54  75  51  73 /  80  60  50  70
GALLUP..........................  57  84  55  81 /  40  40  60  30
EL MORRO........................  54  77  52  77 /  60  50  70  50
GRANTS..........................  57  81  55  79 /  50  40  60  30
QUEMADO.........................  56  76  55  79 /  40  60  60  40
GLENWOOD........................  60  80  57  84 /  40  60  40  30
CHAMA...........................  50  74  49  71 /  50  70  60  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  77  58  75 /  60  60  60  70
PECOS...........................  56  73  56  74 /  80  60  80  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  53  74  54  71 /  50  70  60  70
RED RIVER.......................  48  62  47  60 /  70  80  70  80
ANGEL FIRE......................  50  64  49  64 /  70  80  80  70
TAOS............................  53  77  52  75 /  50  40  40  50
MORA............................  54  71  53  71 /  70  70  80  70
ESPANOLA........................  59  83  58  81 /  40  40  40  50
SANTA FE........................  58  76  59  76 /  70  50  60  70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  79  58  79 /  70  40  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  81  62  83 /  80  60  60  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  64  83  64  83 /  70  40  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  64  86  63  88 /  70  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  88  64  89 /  70  40  40  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  64  85  63  86 /  70  30  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  63  86  63  87 /  70  40  40  30
SOCORRO.........................  65  92  64  91 /  50  30  30  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  58  78  58  79 /  90  70  70  60
TIJERAS.........................  59  80  58  81 /  90  70  60  60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  78  55  81 /  80  40  40  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  74  58  76 /  70  60  50  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  78  58  81 /  60  60  30  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  84  61  86 /  50  30  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  58  74  57  76 /  60  40  20  20
CAPULIN.........................  58  75  57  75 /  50  60  60  50
RATON...........................  57  80  56  78 /  50  50  40  40
SPRINGER........................  58  78  57  79 /  60  50  60  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  74  55  76 /  70  60  50  50
CLAYTON.........................  62  82  64  84 /  40  40  40  20
ROY.............................  60  75  62  79 /  80  40  70  30
CONCHAS.........................  65  84  69  89 /  60  30  30  30
SANTA ROSA......................  65  85  67  87 /  60  30  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  86  68  90 /  50  30  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  65  85  66  87 /  50  20  20  20
PORTALES........................  67  88  68  88 /  50  10  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  67  85  69  91 /  60  10  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  69  92  70  94 /  50  10   5  10
PICACHO.........................  63  85  62  88 /  50  10  10  10
ELK.............................  60  79  59  80 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501-503-504-506-507-510>519-521>523-527>537.

&&

$$

44



000
FXUS65 KABQ 292122
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
322 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT UNDERCUTTING RICH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
AREAS. A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND DOWNWARD DECREASING THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT AFTER THURSDAY. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...READINGS WILL TREND UPWARD THIS
WEEKEND WITH MOST PLACES REACHING NEAR NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FINISH PUSHING WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SPANNING THE
AREA ALOFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN WEAK
STEERING FLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME
HEFTY QPF VALUES FROM SLOW MOVING OR EVEN STALLING CELLS AND
CLUSTERS OF CELLS FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST AREAS. TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS TO THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME HEAVIER
RAIN AMOUNTS. WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO NEARLY 1.5 INCH RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM NEAR ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE TO NEAR
CLAYTON AND TUCUMCARI...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER VALUES OVER 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

AN EASTERLY WAVE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE NORTHWARD NEAR THE
NM/AZ BORDER THURSDAY...THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
THURSDAY EVENING AND EASTWARD ALONG THE NM/CO BORDER FRIDAY. THERE
ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THIS TIMING...BUT THE TRACK IS
PRETTY SIMILAR. THIS WILL KEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME PRETTY
STRONG AND VERY ACTIVE. PWATS SHOULD GENERALLY VARY AROUND 1 TO
1.10 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
FORECAST. ANTECEDENT MOISTURE FROM TODAY AND THE RISK OF MORE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY MAY CAUSE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING TO CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTHERN AREAS.

THE CENTER OF A DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE WOBBLING AROUND NM THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK. THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE
ARCING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PWATS
NEAR AND OVER AN INCH KEEPING WETTING RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING WEST WILL ENHANCE STORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT
GUSTY TO ERRATIC WINDS DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NEAR STORMS.
BECAUSE OF SLOW STORM MOTION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GAP WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITHIN THE CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLEY/TIJERAS CANYON TONIGHT
AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CANYONS. GAP WINDS
LOOK TO TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY MORNING.

AMPLE MOISTURE WITH STATIONARY STORM MOTIONS WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING
STORM ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE STATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS
HUMIDITY VALUES TREND UPWARD FOLLOWING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL RECENTER BACK OVER THE STATE LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...THEN HOVER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...THEN SHIFT WESTWARD BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND UPWARD AS RAIN FOOTPRINTS GRADUALLY DECREASE EACH DAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES WEST. MOST
TAF SITES WILL SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM AFTN TSRA BETWEEN
20-04Z...WITH LIMITED ACTIVITY AT KFMN & KROW. EXPECT GUSTY TO
ERRATIC WINDS NEAR TAF SITES ASSOCIATED WITH TS OUTFLOW. LOOK FOR
MVFR CIGS WITH TS ACTIVITY. IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AT
KGUP...KSAF...KLVS AS TS ACTIVITY LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  63  89  64  85 /  10  30  60  30
DULCE...........................  53  82  53  78 /  50  50  60  60
CUBA............................  54  75  51  73 /  80  60  50  70
GALLUP..........................  57  84  55  81 /  40  40  60  30
EL MORRO........................  54  77  52  77 /  60  50  70  50
GRANTS..........................  57  81  55  79 /  50  40  60  30
QUEMADO.........................  56  76  55  79 /  40  60  60  40
GLENWOOD........................  60  80  57  84 /  40  60  40  30
CHAMA...........................  50  74  49  71 /  50  70  60  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  77  58  75 /  60  60  60  70
PECOS...........................  56  73  56  74 /  80  60  80  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  53  74  54  71 /  50  70  60  70
RED RIVER.......................  48  62  47  60 /  70  80  70  80
ANGEL FIRE......................  50  64  49  64 /  70  80  80  70
TAOS............................  53  77  52  75 /  50  40  40  50
MORA............................  54  71  53  71 /  70  70  80  70
ESPANOLA........................  59  83  58  81 /  40  40  40  50
SANTA FE........................  58  76  59  76 /  70  50  60  70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  79  58  79 /  70  40  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  81  62  83 /  80  60  60  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  64  83  64  83 /  70  40  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  64  86  63  88 /  70  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  88  64  89 /  70  40  40  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  64  85  63  86 /  70  30  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  63  86  63  87 /  70  40  40  30
SOCORRO.........................  65  92  64  91 /  50  30  30  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  58  78  58  79 /  90  70  70  60
TIJERAS.........................  59  80  58  81 /  90  70  60  60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  78  55  81 /  80  40  40  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  74  58  76 /  70  60  50  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  78  58  81 /  60  60  30  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  84  61  86 /  50  30  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  58  74  57  76 /  60  40  20  20
CAPULIN.........................  58  75  57  75 /  50  60  60  50
RATON...........................  57  80  56  78 /  50  50  40  40
SPRINGER........................  58  78  57  79 /  60  50  60  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  74  55  76 /  70  60  50  50
CLAYTON.........................  62  82  64  84 /  40  40  40  20
ROY.............................  60  75  62  79 /  80  40  70  30
CONCHAS.........................  65  84  69  89 /  60  30  30  30
SANTA ROSA......................  65  85  67  87 /  60  30  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  86  68  90 /  50  30  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  65  85  66  87 /  50  20  20  20
PORTALES........................  67  88  68  88 /  50  10  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  67  85  69  91 /  60  10  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  69  92  70  94 /  50  10   5  10
PICACHO.........................  63  85  62  88 /  50  10  10  10
ELK.............................  60  79  59  80 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501-503-504-506-507-510>519-521>523-527>537.

&&

$$

44




000
FXUS65 KABQ 292122
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
322 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT UNDERCUTTING RICH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
AREAS. A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND DOWNWARD DECREASING THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT AFTER THURSDAY. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...READINGS WILL TREND UPWARD THIS
WEEKEND WITH MOST PLACES REACHING NEAR NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FINISH PUSHING WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SPANNING THE
AREA ALOFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN WEAK
STEERING FLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME
HEFTY QPF VALUES FROM SLOW MOVING OR EVEN STALLING CELLS AND
CLUSTERS OF CELLS FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST AREAS. TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS TO THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME HEAVIER
RAIN AMOUNTS. WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO NEARLY 1.5 INCH RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM NEAR ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE TO NEAR
CLAYTON AND TUCUMCARI...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER VALUES OVER 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

AN EASTERLY WAVE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE NORTHWARD NEAR THE
NM/AZ BORDER THURSDAY...THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
THURSDAY EVENING AND EASTWARD ALONG THE NM/CO BORDER FRIDAY. THERE
ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THIS TIMING...BUT THE TRACK IS
PRETTY SIMILAR. THIS WILL KEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME PRETTY
STRONG AND VERY ACTIVE. PWATS SHOULD GENERALLY VARY AROUND 1 TO
1.10 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
FORECAST. ANTECEDENT MOISTURE FROM TODAY AND THE RISK OF MORE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY MAY CAUSE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING TO CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTHERN AREAS.

THE CENTER OF A DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE WOBBLING AROUND NM THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK. THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE
ARCING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PWATS
NEAR AND OVER AN INCH KEEPING WETTING RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING WEST WILL ENHANCE STORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT
GUSTY TO ERRATIC WINDS DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NEAR STORMS.
BECAUSE OF SLOW STORM MOTION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GAP WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITHIN THE CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLEY/TIJERAS CANYON TONIGHT
AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CANYONS. GAP WINDS
LOOK TO TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY MORNING.

AMPLE MOISTURE WITH STATIONARY STORM MOTIONS WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING
STORM ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE STATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS
HUMIDITY VALUES TREND UPWARD FOLLOWING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL RECENTER BACK OVER THE STATE LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...THEN HOVER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...THEN SHIFT WESTWARD BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND UPWARD AS RAIN FOOTPRINTS GRADUALLY DECREASE EACH DAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES WEST. MOST
TAF SITES WILL SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM AFTN TSRA BETWEEN
20-04Z...WITH LIMITED ACTIVITY AT KFMN & KROW. EXPECT GUSTY TO
ERRATIC WINDS NEAR TAF SITES ASSOCIATED WITH TS OUTFLOW. LOOK FOR
MVFR CIGS WITH TS ACTIVITY. IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AT
KGUP...KSAF...KLVS AS TS ACTIVITY LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  63  89  64  85 /  10  30  60  30
DULCE...........................  53  82  53  78 /  50  50  60  60
CUBA............................  54  75  51  73 /  80  60  50  70
GALLUP..........................  57  84  55  81 /  40  40  60  30
EL MORRO........................  54  77  52  77 /  60  50  70  50
GRANTS..........................  57  81  55  79 /  50  40  60  30
QUEMADO.........................  56  76  55  79 /  40  60  60  40
GLENWOOD........................  60  80  57  84 /  40  60  40  30
CHAMA...........................  50  74  49  71 /  50  70  60  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  77  58  75 /  60  60  60  70
PECOS...........................  56  73  56  74 /  80  60  80  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  53  74  54  71 /  50  70  60  70
RED RIVER.......................  48  62  47  60 /  70  80  70  80
ANGEL FIRE......................  50  64  49  64 /  70  80  80  70
TAOS............................  53  77  52  75 /  50  40  40  50
MORA............................  54  71  53  71 /  70  70  80  70
ESPANOLA........................  59  83  58  81 /  40  40  40  50
SANTA FE........................  58  76  59  76 /  70  50  60  70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  79  58  79 /  70  40  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  81  62  83 /  80  60  60  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  64  83  64  83 /  70  40  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  64  86  63  88 /  70  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  88  64  89 /  70  40  40  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  64  85  63  86 /  70  30  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  63  86  63  87 /  70  40  40  30
SOCORRO.........................  65  92  64  91 /  50  30  30  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  58  78  58  79 /  90  70  70  60
TIJERAS.........................  59  80  58  81 /  90  70  60  60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  78  55  81 /  80  40  40  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  74  58  76 /  70  60  50  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  78  58  81 /  60  60  30  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  84  61  86 /  50  30  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  58  74  57  76 /  60  40  20  20
CAPULIN.........................  58  75  57  75 /  50  60  60  50
RATON...........................  57  80  56  78 /  50  50  40  40
SPRINGER........................  58  78  57  79 /  60  50  60  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  74  55  76 /  70  60  50  50
CLAYTON.........................  62  82  64  84 /  40  40  40  20
ROY.............................  60  75  62  79 /  80  40  70  30
CONCHAS.........................  65  84  69  89 /  60  30  30  30
SANTA ROSA......................  65  85  67  87 /  60  30  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  86  68  90 /  50  30  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  65  85  66  87 /  50  20  20  20
PORTALES........................  67  88  68  88 /  50  10  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  67  85  69  91 /  60  10  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  69  92  70  94 /  50  10   5  10
PICACHO.........................  63  85  62  88 /  50  10  10  10
ELK.............................  60  79  59  80 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501-503-504-506-507-510>519-521>523-527>537.

&&

$$

44



000
FXUS65 KABQ 292122
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
322 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT UNDERCUTTING RICH MONSOON MOISTURE WILL
LEAD TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING MAINLY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
AREAS. A RICH MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTH
AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TREND DOWNWARD DECREASING THE FLASH FLOOD
THREAT AFTER THURSDAY. AFTER HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 10 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...READINGS WILL TREND UPWARD THIS
WEEKEND WITH MOST PLACES REACHING NEAR NORMAL STARTING SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO FINISH PUSHING WEST OF THE
FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. AN AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE SPANNING THE
AREA ALOFT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST WILL RESULT IN WEAK
STEERING FLOW FOR THUNDERSTORMS...AND MODELS ARE DEPICTING SOME
HEFTY QPF VALUES FROM SLOW MOVING OR EVEN STALLING CELLS AND
CLUSTERS OF CELLS FROM CENTRAL TO NORTHEAST AREAS. TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS TO THE AIRMASS WILL ALSO LEAD TO SOME HEAVIER
RAIN AMOUNTS. WIDESPREAD HALF INCH TO NEARLY 1.5 INCH RAIN
AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED FROM NEAR ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE TO NEAR
CLAYTON AND TUCUMCARI...WITH LOCALLY HEAVIER VALUES OVER 3 INCHES
POSSIBLE.

AN EASTERLY WAVE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
THIS AFTERNOON IS FORECAST BY MODELS TO MOVE NORTHWARD NEAR THE
NM/AZ BORDER THURSDAY...THEN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS
THURSDAY EVENING AND EASTWARD ALONG THE NM/CO BORDER FRIDAY. THERE
ARE SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THIS TIMING...BUT THE TRACK IS
PRETTY SIMILAR. THIS WILL KEEP THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME PRETTY
STRONG AND VERY ACTIVE. PWATS SHOULD GENERALLY VARY AROUND 1 TO
1.10 INCHES DURING THIS PERIOD AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING THE RISK OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
FORECAST. ANTECEDENT MOISTURE FROM TODAY AND THE RISK OF MORE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY MAY CAUSE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH
FLOODING TO CONTINUE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS WESTERN
AND NORTHERN AREAS.

THE CENTER OF A DIRTY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE THAT MOVES OVER
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS WEEKEND IS
PROGGED TO CONTINUE WOBBLING AROUND NM THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF
THE COMING WORK WEEK. THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL CONTINUE
ARCING OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS WITH SEASONABLY HIGH PWATS
NEAR AND OVER AN INCH KEEPING WETTING RAIN IN THE FORECAST.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THIS
EVENING. AMPLE MOISTURE FEEDING FROM THE SOUTH ALONG WITH A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHING WEST WILL ENHANCE STORM ACTIVITY. EXPECT
GUSTY TO ERRATIC WINDS DUE TO OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES NEAR STORMS.
BECAUSE OF SLOW STORM MOTION FROM SOUTH TO NORTH...FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE A CONCERN ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. GAP WINDS WILL
INCREASE WITHIN THE CENTRAL RIO GRANDE VALLEY/TIJERAS CANYON TONIGHT
AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE CANYONS. GAP WINDS
LOOK TO TAPER OFF BY THURSDAY MORNING.

AMPLE MOISTURE WITH STATIONARY STORM MOTIONS WILL CONTINUE ENHANCING
STORM ACTIVITY WITH HEAVY RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE STATE
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AS
HUMIDITY VALUES TREND UPWARD FOLLOWING RAIN AND CLOUD COVER. THE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH WILL RECENTER BACK OVER THE STATE LATE FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND...THEN HOVER OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE NEXT WORK
WEEK...THEN SHIFT WESTWARD BY THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES
WILL TREND UPWARD AS RAIN FOOTPRINTS GRADUALLY DECREASE EACH DAY
INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES WEST. MOST
TAF SITES WILL SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM AFTN TSRA BETWEEN
20-04Z...WITH LIMITED ACTIVITY AT KFMN & KROW. EXPECT GUSTY TO
ERRATIC WINDS NEAR TAF SITES ASSOCIATED WITH TS OUTFLOW. LOOK FOR
MVFR CIGS WITH TS ACTIVITY. IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AT
KGUP...KSAF...KLVS AS TS ACTIVITY LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  63  89  64  85 /  10  30  60  30
DULCE...........................  53  82  53  78 /  50  50  60  60
CUBA............................  54  75  51  73 /  80  60  50  70
GALLUP..........................  57  84  55  81 /  40  40  60  30
EL MORRO........................  54  77  52  77 /  60  50  70  50
GRANTS..........................  57  81  55  79 /  50  40  60  30
QUEMADO.........................  56  76  55  79 /  40  60  60  40
GLENWOOD........................  60  80  57  84 /  40  60  40  30
CHAMA...........................  50  74  49  71 /  50  70  60  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  77  58  75 /  60  60  60  70
PECOS...........................  56  73  56  74 /  80  60  80  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  53  74  54  71 /  50  70  60  70
RED RIVER.......................  48  62  47  60 /  70  80  70  80
ANGEL FIRE......................  50  64  49  64 /  70  80  80  70
TAOS............................  53  77  52  75 /  50  40  40  50
MORA............................  54  71  53  71 /  70  70  80  70
ESPANOLA........................  59  83  58  81 /  40  40  40  50
SANTA FE........................  58  76  59  76 /  70  50  60  70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  59  79  58  79 /  70  40  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  81  62  83 /  80  60  60  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  64  83  64  83 /  70  40  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  64  86  63  88 /  70  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  64  88  64  89 /  70  40  40  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  64  85  63  86 /  70  30  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  63  86  63  87 /  70  40  40  30
SOCORRO.........................  65  92  64  91 /  50  30  30  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  58  78  58  79 /  90  70  70  60
TIJERAS.........................  59  80  58  81 /  90  70  60  60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  78  55  81 /  80  40  40  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  57  74  58  76 /  70  60  50  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  78  58  81 /  60  60  30  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  84  61  86 /  50  30  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  58  74  57  76 /  60  40  20  20
CAPULIN.........................  58  75  57  75 /  50  60  60  50
RATON...........................  57  80  56  78 /  50  50  40  40
SPRINGER........................  58  78  57  79 /  60  50  60  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  56  74  55  76 /  70  60  50  50
CLAYTON.........................  62  82  64  84 /  40  40  40  20
ROY.............................  60  75  62  79 /  80  40  70  30
CONCHAS.........................  65  84  69  89 /  60  30  30  30
SANTA ROSA......................  65  85  67  87 /  60  30  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  86  68  90 /  50  30  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  65  85  66  87 /  50  20  20  20
PORTALES........................  67  88  68  88 /  50  10  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  67  85  69  91 /  60  10  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  69  92  70  94 /  50  10   5  10
PICACHO.........................  63  85  62  88 /  50  10  10  10
ELK.............................  60  79  59  80 /  50  20  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501-503-504-506-507-510>519-521>523-527>537.

&&

$$

44




000
FXUS65 KABQ 291813
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1213 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES WEST. MOST
TAF SITES WILL SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM AFTN TSRA BETWEEN
20-04Z...WITH LIMITED ACTIVITY AT KFMN & KROW. EXPECT GUSTY TO
ERRATIC WINDS NEAR TAF SITES ASSOCIATED WITH TS OUTFLOW. LOOK FOR
MVFR CIGS WITH TS ACTIVITY. IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AT
KGUP...KSAF...KLVS AS TS ACTIVITY LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...358 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT TO
PRODUCE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...LEADING TO A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
SLOW MOVING STORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE MODEL RUNS EARLY THIS MORNING. BOTH NAM
AND GFS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BACKDOOR
FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED WEST OF RGV AS OF THIS WRITING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO OVER AN INCH OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION. NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO FORECAST 99TH PERCENTILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE/VORT LOBE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH WRN NM TODAY. SO...MOST OF
THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR FLASH FLOODING ARE PRESENT IN THE FORM
OF COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A SURFACE TRIGGER IN THE FORM OF
THE BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM CORE WAVE ORIGINATING FROM DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
BOOTHEEL. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST 10-15KTS OF STEERING FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON BUT FORECAST RAIN RATES EXPECTED TO OUTWEIGH
MODERATE STORM MOTION. ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OR SO OF THE STATE FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. BOTH
MODELS KEEP CONVECTION GOING WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE 00Z NAM12 REALLY HITTING THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIAS
AND MANZANOS HARD (QPF ~ 2-4") THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DESPITE AN ELONGATED UPPER HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THE FLOW AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL REMAINS SOUTHERLY...KEEPING
PWATS HIGH. BOTH GFS AND NAM PROGGING STORM MOTION TO DECREASE
BOTH DAYS...SO SLOWER MOVING HEAVY RAINERS ARE A GOOD BET. STORM
MOTION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO WLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE WEEKEND REMAINS ACTIVE WITH HEALTHY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. SOUTHEAST PLAINS MAY BE LEFT OUT SATURDAY BUT
A TRANSITION TO A NLY FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY SHOULD GET THAT AREA
BACK INTO THE ACT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FOUR CORNERS
HIGH WILL PARK OVER/NEAR SE AZ/NW NM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS KEEP PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR
SCATTERED CROPS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK WITH THE ONLY DOWNTICK FOR PERHAPS THE EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A HEAVY RAIN EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...THANKS IN PART TO A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT AND RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW. SOAKING RAINS ARE LIKELY TODAY...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY DUE TO A HIGH PWAT AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORM
MOTION ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN AND HUMIDITY
WILL TREND UP COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS AS A RESULT OF RAIN
COOLING AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RECENTER OVER NEW MEXICO LATE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
NO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INPUT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND UP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINT SHRINKS SLIGHTLY EACH
DAY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501-503-504-506-507-510>519-521>523-527>537.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 291813
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1213 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES WEST. MOST
TAF SITES WILL SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM AFTN TSRA BETWEEN
20-04Z...WITH LIMITED ACTIVITY AT KFMN & KROW. EXPECT GUSTY TO
ERRATIC WINDS NEAR TAF SITES ASSOCIATED WITH TS OUTFLOW. LOOK FOR
MVFR CIGS WITH TS ACTIVITY. IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AT
KGUP...KSAF...KLVS AS TS ACTIVITY LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...358 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT TO
PRODUCE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...LEADING TO A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
SLOW MOVING STORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE MODEL RUNS EARLY THIS MORNING. BOTH NAM
AND GFS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BACKDOOR
FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED WEST OF RGV AS OF THIS WRITING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO OVER AN INCH OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION. NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO FORECAST 99TH PERCENTILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE/VORT LOBE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH WRN NM TODAY. SO...MOST OF
THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR FLASH FLOODING ARE PRESENT IN THE FORM
OF COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A SURFACE TRIGGER IN THE FORM OF
THE BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM CORE WAVE ORIGINATING FROM DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
BOOTHEEL. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST 10-15KTS OF STEERING FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON BUT FORECAST RAIN RATES EXPECTED TO OUTWEIGH
MODERATE STORM MOTION. ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OR SO OF THE STATE FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. BOTH
MODELS KEEP CONVECTION GOING WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE 00Z NAM12 REALLY HITTING THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIAS
AND MANZANOS HARD (QPF ~ 2-4") THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DESPITE AN ELONGATED UPPER HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THE FLOW AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL REMAINS SOUTHERLY...KEEPING
PWATS HIGH. BOTH GFS AND NAM PROGGING STORM MOTION TO DECREASE
BOTH DAYS...SO SLOWER MOVING HEAVY RAINERS ARE A GOOD BET. STORM
MOTION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO WLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE WEEKEND REMAINS ACTIVE WITH HEALTHY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. SOUTHEAST PLAINS MAY BE LEFT OUT SATURDAY BUT
A TRANSITION TO A NLY FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY SHOULD GET THAT AREA
BACK INTO THE ACT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FOUR CORNERS
HIGH WILL PARK OVER/NEAR SE AZ/NW NM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS KEEP PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR
SCATTERED CROPS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK WITH THE ONLY DOWNTICK FOR PERHAPS THE EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A HEAVY RAIN EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...THANKS IN PART TO A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT AND RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW. SOAKING RAINS ARE LIKELY TODAY...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY DUE TO A HIGH PWAT AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORM
MOTION ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN AND HUMIDITY
WILL TREND UP COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS AS A RESULT OF RAIN
COOLING AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RECENTER OVER NEW MEXICO LATE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
NO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INPUT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND UP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINT SHRINKS SLIGHTLY EACH
DAY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501-503-504-506-507-510>519-521>523-527>537.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 291813
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1213 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES WEST. MOST
TAF SITES WILL SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM AFTN TSRA BETWEEN
20-04Z...WITH LIMITED ACTIVITY AT KFMN & KROW. EXPECT GUSTY TO
ERRATIC WINDS NEAR TAF SITES ASSOCIATED WITH TS OUTFLOW. LOOK FOR
MVFR CIGS WITH TS ACTIVITY. IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AT
KGUP...KSAF...KLVS AS TS ACTIVITY LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...358 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT TO
PRODUCE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...LEADING TO A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
SLOW MOVING STORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE MODEL RUNS EARLY THIS MORNING. BOTH NAM
AND GFS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BACKDOOR
FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED WEST OF RGV AS OF THIS WRITING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO OVER AN INCH OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION. NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO FORECAST 99TH PERCENTILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE/VORT LOBE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH WRN NM TODAY. SO...MOST OF
THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR FLASH FLOODING ARE PRESENT IN THE FORM
OF COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A SURFACE TRIGGER IN THE FORM OF
THE BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM CORE WAVE ORIGINATING FROM DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
BOOTHEEL. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST 10-15KTS OF STEERING FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON BUT FORECAST RAIN RATES EXPECTED TO OUTWEIGH
MODERATE STORM MOTION. ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OR SO OF THE STATE FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. BOTH
MODELS KEEP CONVECTION GOING WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE 00Z NAM12 REALLY HITTING THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIAS
AND MANZANOS HARD (QPF ~ 2-4") THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DESPITE AN ELONGATED UPPER HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THE FLOW AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL REMAINS SOUTHERLY...KEEPING
PWATS HIGH. BOTH GFS AND NAM PROGGING STORM MOTION TO DECREASE
BOTH DAYS...SO SLOWER MOVING HEAVY RAINERS ARE A GOOD BET. STORM
MOTION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO WLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE WEEKEND REMAINS ACTIVE WITH HEALTHY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. SOUTHEAST PLAINS MAY BE LEFT OUT SATURDAY BUT
A TRANSITION TO A NLY FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY SHOULD GET THAT AREA
BACK INTO THE ACT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FOUR CORNERS
HIGH WILL PARK OVER/NEAR SE AZ/NW NM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS KEEP PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR
SCATTERED CROPS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK WITH THE ONLY DOWNTICK FOR PERHAPS THE EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A HEAVY RAIN EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...THANKS IN PART TO A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT AND RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW. SOAKING RAINS ARE LIKELY TODAY...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY DUE TO A HIGH PWAT AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORM
MOTION ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN AND HUMIDITY
WILL TREND UP COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS AS A RESULT OF RAIN
COOLING AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RECENTER OVER NEW MEXICO LATE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
NO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INPUT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND UP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINT SHRINKS SLIGHTLY EACH
DAY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501-503-504-506-507-510>519-521>523-527>537.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 291813
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1213 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT NUMEROUS TO WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AS THE BACK DOOR COLD FRONT PUSHES WEST. MOST
TAF SITES WILL SEE DIRECT IMPACTS FROM AFTN TSRA BETWEEN
20-04Z...WITH LIMITED ACTIVITY AT KFMN & KROW. EXPECT GUSTY TO
ERRATIC WINDS NEAR TAF SITES ASSOCIATED WITH TS OUTFLOW. LOOK FOR
MVFR CIGS WITH TS ACTIVITY. IFR CIGS COULD DEVELOP AFTER 06Z AT
KGUP...KSAF...KLVS AS TS ACTIVITY LAST INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...358 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT TO
PRODUCE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...LEADING TO A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
SLOW MOVING STORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE MODEL RUNS EARLY THIS MORNING. BOTH NAM
AND GFS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BACKDOOR
FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED WEST OF RGV AS OF THIS WRITING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO OVER AN INCH OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION. NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO FORECAST 99TH PERCENTILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE/VORT LOBE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH WRN NM TODAY. SO...MOST OF
THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR FLASH FLOODING ARE PRESENT IN THE FORM
OF COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A SURFACE TRIGGER IN THE FORM OF
THE BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM CORE WAVE ORIGINATING FROM DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
BOOTHEEL. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST 10-15KTS OF STEERING FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON BUT FORECAST RAIN RATES EXPECTED TO OUTWEIGH
MODERATE STORM MOTION. ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OR SO OF THE STATE FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. BOTH
MODELS KEEP CONVECTION GOING WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE 00Z NAM12 REALLY HITTING THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIAS
AND MANZANOS HARD (QPF ~ 2-4") THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DESPITE AN ELONGATED UPPER HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THE FLOW AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL REMAINS SOUTHERLY...KEEPING
PWATS HIGH. BOTH GFS AND NAM PROGGING STORM MOTION TO DECREASE
BOTH DAYS...SO SLOWER MOVING HEAVY RAINERS ARE A GOOD BET. STORM
MOTION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO WLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE WEEKEND REMAINS ACTIVE WITH HEALTHY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. SOUTHEAST PLAINS MAY BE LEFT OUT SATURDAY BUT
A TRANSITION TO A NLY FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY SHOULD GET THAT AREA
BACK INTO THE ACT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FOUR CORNERS
HIGH WILL PARK OVER/NEAR SE AZ/NW NM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS KEEP PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR
SCATTERED CROPS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK WITH THE ONLY DOWNTICK FOR PERHAPS THE EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A HEAVY RAIN EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...THANKS IN PART TO A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT AND RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW. SOAKING RAINS ARE LIKELY TODAY...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY DUE TO A HIGH PWAT AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORM
MOTION ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN AND HUMIDITY
WILL TREND UP COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS AS A RESULT OF RAIN
COOLING AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RECENTER OVER NEW MEXICO LATE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
NO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INPUT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND UP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINT SHRINKS SLIGHTLY EACH
DAY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ501-503-504-506-507-510>519-521>523-527>537.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 291147 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL...BUT A GRADUAL LOWERING OF VFR CIGS IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...
ALTHOUGH SHORT-LIVED IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. TERMINALS MOST
LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED ARE KLVS...KSAF...KAEG AND KABQ...IN THAT
ORDER. THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES WILL PEAK BETWEEN 22-02Z...BUT
MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...358 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT TO
PRODUCE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...LEADING TO A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
SLOW MOVING STORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE MODEL RUNS EARLY THIS MORNING. BOTH NAM
AND GFS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BACKDOOR
FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED WEST OF RGV AS OF THIS WRITING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO OVER AN INCH OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION. NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO FORECAST 99TH PERCENTILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE/VORT LOBE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH WRN NM TODAY. SO...MOST OF
THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR FLASH FLOODING ARE PRESENT IN THE FORM
OF COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A SURFACE TRIGGER IN THE FORM OF
THE BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM CORE WAVE ORIGINATING FROM DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
BOOTHEEL. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST 10-15KTS OF STEERING FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON BUT FORECAST RAIN RATES EXPECTED TO OUTWEIGH
MODERATE STORM MOTION. ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OR SO OF THE STATE FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. BOTH
MODELS KEEP CONVECTION GOING WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE 00Z NAM12 REALLY HITTING THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIAS
AND MANZANOS HARD (QPF ~ 2-4") THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DESPITE AN ELONGATED UPPER HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THE FLOW AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL REMAINS SOUTHERLY...KEEPING
PWATS HIGH. BOTH GFS AND NAM PROGGING STORM MOTION TO DECREASE
BOTH DAYS...SO SLOWER MOVING HEAVY RAINERS ARE A GOOD BET. STORM
MOTION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO WLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE WEEKEND REMAINS ACTIVE WITH HEALTHY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. SOUTHEAST PLAINS MAY BE LEFT OUT SATURDAY BUT
A TRANSITION TO A NLY FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY SHOULD GET THAT AREA
BACK INTO THE ACT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FOUR CORNERS
HIGH WILL PARK OVER/NEAR SE AZ/NW NM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS KEEP PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR
SCATTERED CROPS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK WITH THE ONLY DOWNTICK FOR PERHAPS THE EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A HEAVY RAIN EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...THANKS IN PART TO A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT AND RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW. SOAKING RAINS ARE LIKELY TODAY...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY DUE TO A HIGH PWAT AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORM
MOTION ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN AND HUMIDITY
WILL TREND UP COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS AS A RESULT OF RAIN
COOLING AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RECENTER OVER NEW MEXICO LATE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
NO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INPUT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND UP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINT SHRINKS SLIGHTLY EACH
DAY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ501-503-504-506-507-510>519-521>523-527>537.

&&

$$

33



000
FXUS65 KABQ 291147 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL...BUT A GRADUAL LOWERING OF VFR CIGS IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...
ALTHOUGH SHORT-LIVED IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. TERMINALS MOST
LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED ARE KLVS...KSAF...KAEG AND KABQ...IN THAT
ORDER. THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES WILL PEAK BETWEEN 22-02Z...BUT
MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...358 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT TO
PRODUCE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...LEADING TO A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
SLOW MOVING STORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE MODEL RUNS EARLY THIS MORNING. BOTH NAM
AND GFS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BACKDOOR
FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED WEST OF RGV AS OF THIS WRITING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO OVER AN INCH OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION. NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO FORECAST 99TH PERCENTILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE/VORT LOBE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH WRN NM TODAY. SO...MOST OF
THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR FLASH FLOODING ARE PRESENT IN THE FORM
OF COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A SURFACE TRIGGER IN THE FORM OF
THE BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM CORE WAVE ORIGINATING FROM DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
BOOTHEEL. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST 10-15KTS OF STEERING FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON BUT FORECAST RAIN RATES EXPECTED TO OUTWEIGH
MODERATE STORM MOTION. ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OR SO OF THE STATE FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. BOTH
MODELS KEEP CONVECTION GOING WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE 00Z NAM12 REALLY HITTING THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIAS
AND MANZANOS HARD (QPF ~ 2-4") THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DESPITE AN ELONGATED UPPER HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THE FLOW AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL REMAINS SOUTHERLY...KEEPING
PWATS HIGH. BOTH GFS AND NAM PROGGING STORM MOTION TO DECREASE
BOTH DAYS...SO SLOWER MOVING HEAVY RAINERS ARE A GOOD BET. STORM
MOTION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO WLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE WEEKEND REMAINS ACTIVE WITH HEALTHY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. SOUTHEAST PLAINS MAY BE LEFT OUT SATURDAY BUT
A TRANSITION TO A NLY FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY SHOULD GET THAT AREA
BACK INTO THE ACT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FOUR CORNERS
HIGH WILL PARK OVER/NEAR SE AZ/NW NM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS KEEP PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR
SCATTERED CROPS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK WITH THE ONLY DOWNTICK FOR PERHAPS THE EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A HEAVY RAIN EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...THANKS IN PART TO A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT AND RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW. SOAKING RAINS ARE LIKELY TODAY...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY DUE TO A HIGH PWAT AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORM
MOTION ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN AND HUMIDITY
WILL TREND UP COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS AS A RESULT OF RAIN
COOLING AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RECENTER OVER NEW MEXICO LATE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
NO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INPUT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND UP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINT SHRINKS SLIGHTLY EACH
DAY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ501-503-504-506-507-510>519-521>523-527>537.

&&

$$

33




000
FXUS65 KABQ 291147 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL...BUT A GRADUAL LOWERING OF VFR CIGS IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...
ALTHOUGH SHORT-LIVED IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. TERMINALS MOST
LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED ARE KLVS...KSAF...KAEG AND KABQ...IN THAT
ORDER. THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES WILL PEAK BETWEEN 22-02Z...BUT
MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...358 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT TO
PRODUCE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...LEADING TO A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
SLOW MOVING STORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE MODEL RUNS EARLY THIS MORNING. BOTH NAM
AND GFS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BACKDOOR
FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED WEST OF RGV AS OF THIS WRITING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO OVER AN INCH OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION. NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO FORECAST 99TH PERCENTILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE/VORT LOBE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH WRN NM TODAY. SO...MOST OF
THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR FLASH FLOODING ARE PRESENT IN THE FORM
OF COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A SURFACE TRIGGER IN THE FORM OF
THE BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM CORE WAVE ORIGINATING FROM DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
BOOTHEEL. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST 10-15KTS OF STEERING FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON BUT FORECAST RAIN RATES EXPECTED TO OUTWEIGH
MODERATE STORM MOTION. ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OR SO OF THE STATE FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. BOTH
MODELS KEEP CONVECTION GOING WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE 00Z NAM12 REALLY HITTING THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIAS
AND MANZANOS HARD (QPF ~ 2-4") THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DESPITE AN ELONGATED UPPER HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THE FLOW AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL REMAINS SOUTHERLY...KEEPING
PWATS HIGH. BOTH GFS AND NAM PROGGING STORM MOTION TO DECREASE
BOTH DAYS...SO SLOWER MOVING HEAVY RAINERS ARE A GOOD BET. STORM
MOTION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO WLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE WEEKEND REMAINS ACTIVE WITH HEALTHY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. SOUTHEAST PLAINS MAY BE LEFT OUT SATURDAY BUT
A TRANSITION TO A NLY FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY SHOULD GET THAT AREA
BACK INTO THE ACT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FOUR CORNERS
HIGH WILL PARK OVER/NEAR SE AZ/NW NM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS KEEP PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR
SCATTERED CROPS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK WITH THE ONLY DOWNTICK FOR PERHAPS THE EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A HEAVY RAIN EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...THANKS IN PART TO A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT AND RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW. SOAKING RAINS ARE LIKELY TODAY...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY DUE TO A HIGH PWAT AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORM
MOTION ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN AND HUMIDITY
WILL TREND UP COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS AS A RESULT OF RAIN
COOLING AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RECENTER OVER NEW MEXICO LATE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
NO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INPUT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND UP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINT SHRINKS SLIGHTLY EACH
DAY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ501-503-504-506-507-510>519-521>523-527>537.

&&

$$

33



000
FXUS65 KABQ 291147 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL...BUT A GRADUAL LOWERING OF VFR CIGS IS
FORECAST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH INCREASING THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITIES. MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THUNDERSTORMS...
ALTHOUGH SHORT-LIVED IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE. TERMINALS MOST
LIKELY TO BE IMPACTED ARE KLVS...KSAF...KAEG AND KABQ...IN THAT
ORDER. THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES WILL PEAK BETWEEN 22-02Z...BUT
MAY CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS CENTRAL AND
WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...358 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT TO
PRODUCE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...LEADING TO A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
SLOW MOVING STORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE MODEL RUNS EARLY THIS MORNING. BOTH NAM
AND GFS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BACKDOOR
FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED WEST OF RGV AS OF THIS WRITING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO OVER AN INCH OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION. NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO FORECAST 99TH PERCENTILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE/VORT LOBE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH WRN NM TODAY. SO...MOST OF
THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR FLASH FLOODING ARE PRESENT IN THE FORM
OF COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A SURFACE TRIGGER IN THE FORM OF
THE BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM CORE WAVE ORIGINATING FROM DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
BOOTHEEL. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST 10-15KTS OF STEERING FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON BUT FORECAST RAIN RATES EXPECTED TO OUTWEIGH
MODERATE STORM MOTION. ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OR SO OF THE STATE FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. BOTH
MODELS KEEP CONVECTION GOING WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE 00Z NAM12 REALLY HITTING THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIAS
AND MANZANOS HARD (QPF ~ 2-4") THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DESPITE AN ELONGATED UPPER HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THE FLOW AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL REMAINS SOUTHERLY...KEEPING
PWATS HIGH. BOTH GFS AND NAM PROGGING STORM MOTION TO DECREASE
BOTH DAYS...SO SLOWER MOVING HEAVY RAINERS ARE A GOOD BET. STORM
MOTION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO WLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE WEEKEND REMAINS ACTIVE WITH HEALTHY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. SOUTHEAST PLAINS MAY BE LEFT OUT SATURDAY BUT
A TRANSITION TO A NLY FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY SHOULD GET THAT AREA
BACK INTO THE ACT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FOUR CORNERS
HIGH WILL PARK OVER/NEAR SE AZ/NW NM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS KEEP PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR
SCATTERED CROPS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK WITH THE ONLY DOWNTICK FOR PERHAPS THE EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A HEAVY RAIN EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...THANKS IN PART TO A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT AND RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW. SOAKING RAINS ARE LIKELY TODAY...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY DUE TO A HIGH PWAT AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORM
MOTION ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN AND HUMIDITY
WILL TREND UP COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS AS A RESULT OF RAIN
COOLING AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RECENTER OVER NEW MEXICO LATE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
NO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INPUT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND UP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINT SHRINKS SLIGHTLY EACH
DAY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ501-503-504-506-507-510>519-521>523-527>537.

&&

$$

33




000
FXUS65 KABQ 290958
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
358 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT TO
PRODUCE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...LEADING TO A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
SLOW MOVING STORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE MODEL RUNS EARLY THIS MORNING. BOTH NAM
AND GFS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BACKDOOR
FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED WEST OF RGV AS OF THIS WRITING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO OVER AN INCH OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION. NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO FORECAST 99TH PERCENTILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE/VORT LOBE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH WRN NM TODAY. SO...MOST OF
THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR FLASH FLOODING ARE PRESENT IN THE FORM
OF COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A SURFACE TRIGGER IN THE FORM OF
THE BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM CORE WAVE ORIGINATING FROM DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
BOOTHEEL. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST 10-15KTS OF STEERING FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON BUT FORECAST RAIN RATES EXPECTED TO OUTWEIGH
MODERATE STORM MOTION. ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OR SO OF THE STATE FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. BOTH
MODELS KEEP CONVECTION GOING WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE 00Z NAM12 REALLY HITTING THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIAS
AND MANZANOS HARD (QPF ~ 2-4") THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DESPITE AN ELONGATED UPPER HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THE FLOW AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL REMAINS SOUTHERLY...KEEPING
PWATS HIGH. BOTH GFS AND NAM PROGGING STORM MOTION TO DECREASE
BOTH DAYS...SO SLOWER MOVING HEAVY RAINERS ARE A GOOD BET. STORM
MOTION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO WLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE WEEKEND REMAINS ACTIVE WITH HEALTHY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. SOUTHEAST PLAINS MAY BE LEFT OUT SATURDAY BUT
A TRANSITION TO A NLY FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY SHOULD GET THAT AREA
BACK INTO THE ACT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FOUR CORNERS
HIGH WILL PARK OVER/NEAR SE AZ/NW NM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS KEEP PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR
SCATTERED CROPS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK WITH THE ONLY DOWNTICK FOR PERHAPS THE EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A HEAVY RAIN EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...THANKS IN PART TO A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT AND RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW. SOAKING RAINS ARE LIKELY TODAY...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY DUE TO A HIGH PWAT AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORM
MOTION ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN AND HUMIDITY
WILL TREND UP COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS AS A RESULT OF RAIN
COOLING AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RECENTER OVER NEW MEXICO LATE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
NO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INPUT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND UP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINT SHRINKS SLIGHTLY EACH
DAY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE RGV AND WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD
TOWARD THE CONTDVD EARLY THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY -RA ACROSS THE WEST AND ISO-SCT
-TSRA ACROSS THE FAR EAST. MVFR-IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND PORTIONS OF THE NE PLAINS
TONIGHT...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS WILL BE WED
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA ON WED AFTN/EVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  89  61  88  60 /  10  20  20  50
DULCE...........................  81  51  79  52 /  40  30  50  60
CUBA............................  75  52  74  53 /  70  60  60  50
GALLUP..........................  84  54  83  56 /  50  60  50  60
EL MORRO........................  78  53  76  53 /  70  70  50  60
GRANTS..........................  80  55  79  56 /  60  80  50  50
QUEMADO.........................  79  56  78  56 /  60  40  60  50
GLENWOOD........................  83  58  82  58 /  60  30  40  40
CHAMA...........................  72  49  70  50 /  70  40  70  70
LOS ALAMOS......................  75  57  75  58 /  70  80  60  50
PECOS...........................  73  55  73  55 /  70  70  70  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  72  53  71  53 /  70  40  60  50
RED RIVER.......................  63  49  63  47 /  90  60  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  64  51  64  49 /  90  60  80  70
TAOS............................  75  53  75  52 /  60  50  40  40
MORA............................  69  53  70  53 /  80  80  70  60
ESPANOLA........................  80  58  80  58 /  50  50  40  40
SANTA FE........................  76  58  75  59 /  60  80  60  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  79  58  78  56 /  60  70  50  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  82  61  80  62 /  60  70  60  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  84  64  82  65 /  50  60  50  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  86  62  84  62 /  50  60  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  85  62  83  64 /  50  70  40  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  85  61  83  60 /  50  70  40  30
RIO RANCHO......................  85  62  83  64 /  60  70  50  30
SOCORRO.........................  91  64  89  64 /  50  60  30  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  76  57  76  58 /  80 100  70  50
TIJERAS.........................  78  58  78  57 /  60  90  60  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  80  55  79  54 /  60  80  50  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  73  56  75  57 /  60  80  60  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  81  58  80  58 /  60  80  50  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  87  62  85  62 /  60  60  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  76  58  76  58 /  60  50  30  10
CAPULIN.........................  70  57  73  57 /  80  50  60  50
RATON...........................  75  56  77  56 /  70  40  50  40
SPRINGER........................  77  57  78  57 /  70  50  50  50
LAS VEGAS.......................  73  55  74  55 /  80  80  60  40
CLAYTON.........................  77  62  83  62 /  50  40  40  30
ROY.............................  76  60  78  60 /  50  50  50  50
CONCHAS.........................  84  66  86  66 /  50  50  30  30
SANTA ROSA......................  84  65  87  65 /  50  40  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  86  65  88  66 /  30  40  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  86  65  87  66 /  20  40  10  20
PORTALES........................  88  67  89  67 /  20  30  10  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  88  67  88  67 /  30  30  10  20
ROSWELL.........................  95  68  97  69 /  20  10  10   5
PICACHO.........................  87  62  88  63 /  30  30  20  10
ELK.............................  80  60  80  60 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ501-503-504-506-507-510>519-521>523-527>537.

&&

$$

33



000
FXUS65 KABQ 290958
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
358 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH A BACKDOOR FRONT TO
PRODUCE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
NEW MEXICO TODAY AND TONIGHT. VERY HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE FROM THE
STRONGER STORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...LEADING TO A
GREATER POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...PLENTIFUL MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO
RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STORM MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO DECREASE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AND HEAVY RAINFALL FROM
SLOW MOVING STORMS IS POSSIBLE. THE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES IN THE MODEL RUNS EARLY THIS MORNING. BOTH NAM
AND GFS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT FOR TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. BACKDOOR
FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED WEST OF RGV AS OF THIS WRITING.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HAVE INCREASED TO OVER AN INCH OVER MUCH
OF THE REGION. NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO FORECAST 99TH PERCENTILE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE/VORT LOBE
IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH WRN NM TODAY. SO...MOST OF
THE INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR FLASH FLOODING ARE PRESENT IN THE FORM
OF COPIOUS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A SURFACE TRIGGER IN THE FORM OF
THE BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY AND LARGE SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH A
WARM CORE WAVE ORIGINATING FROM DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE
BOOTHEEL. MODELS CONTINUE TO FORECAST 10-15KTS OF STEERING FLOW
THIS AFTERNOON BUT FORECAST RAIN RATES EXPECTED TO OUTWEIGH
MODERATE STORM MOTION. ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE NORTHERN
HALF OR SO OF THE STATE FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. BOTH
MODELS KEEP CONVECTION GOING WELL AFTER MIDNIGHT FOR MUCH OF THE
REGION. ALSO OF NOTE IS THE 00Z NAM12 REALLY HITTING THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SOUTHERN SANGRES AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANDIAS
AND MANZANOS HARD (QPF ~ 2-4") THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

DESPITE AN ELONGATED UPPER HIGH MOVING OVERHEAD THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...THE FLOW AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL REMAINS SOUTHERLY...KEEPING
PWATS HIGH. BOTH GFS AND NAM PROGGING STORM MOTION TO DECREASE
BOTH DAYS...SO SLOWER MOVING HEAVY RAINERS ARE A GOOD BET. STORM
MOTION WILL GRADUALLY TRANSITION TO WLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

THE WEEKEND REMAINS ACTIVE WITH HEALTHY ROUNDS OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING CONVECTION. SOUTHEAST PLAINS MAY BE LEFT OUT SATURDAY BUT
A TRANSITION TO A NLY FLOW ALOFT BY SUNDAY SHOULD GET THAT AREA
BACK INTO THE ACT. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE FOUR CORNERS
HIGH WILL PARK OVER/NEAR SE AZ/NW NM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NEXT
WEEK. MODELS KEEP PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND FOR
SCATTERED CROPS OF AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK WITH THE ONLY DOWNTICK FOR PERHAPS THE EAST-
CENTRAL AND SE PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO TREND UP
THROUGH TONIGHT AS A HEAVY RAIN EVENT UNFOLDS ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...THANKS IN PART TO A WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT AND RESULTING UPSLOPE FLOW. SOAKING RAINS ARE LIKELY TODAY...
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY DUE TO A HIGH PWAT AND RELATIVELY SLOW STORM
MOTION ENVIRONMENT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL TREND DOWN AND HUMIDITY
WILL TREND UP COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS AS A RESULT OF RAIN
COOLING AND ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER. HIGHS WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW
NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL RECENTER OVER NEW MEXICO LATE FRIDAY AND
CONTINUE OVER THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH
NO ADDITIONAL MOISTURE INPUT. LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES TO TREND UP
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WETTING RAIN FOOTPRINT SHRINKS SLIGHTLY EACH
DAY GOING INTO NEXT WEEK.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH THE RGV AND WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD
TOWARD THE CONTDVD EARLY THIS MORNING. STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...WITH MAINLY -RA ACROSS THE WEST AND ISO-SCT
-TSRA ACROSS THE FAR EAST. MVFR-IFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND PORTIONS OF THE NE PLAINS
TONIGHT...BUT BETTER CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD LOW CIGS WILL BE WED
NIGHT. THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA ON WED AFTN/EVE ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. MVFR
CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN HEAVY RAIN. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WINDS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  89  61  88  60 /  10  20  20  50
DULCE...........................  81  51  79  52 /  40  30  50  60
CUBA............................  75  52  74  53 /  70  60  60  50
GALLUP..........................  84  54  83  56 /  50  60  50  60
EL MORRO........................  78  53  76  53 /  70  70  50  60
GRANTS..........................  80  55  79  56 /  60  80  50  50
QUEMADO.........................  79  56  78  56 /  60  40  60  50
GLENWOOD........................  83  58  82  58 /  60  30  40  40
CHAMA...........................  72  49  70  50 /  70  40  70  70
LOS ALAMOS......................  75  57  75  58 /  70  80  60  50
PECOS...........................  73  55  73  55 /  70  70  70  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  72  53  71  53 /  70  40  60  50
RED RIVER.......................  63  49  63  47 /  90  60  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  64  51  64  49 /  90  60  80  70
TAOS............................  75  53  75  52 /  60  50  40  40
MORA............................  69  53  70  53 /  80  80  70  60
ESPANOLA........................  80  58  80  58 /  50  50  40  40
SANTA FE........................  76  58  75  59 /  60  80  60  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  79  58  78  56 /  60  70  50  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  82  61  80  62 /  60  70  60  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  84  64  82  65 /  50  60  50  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  86  62  84  62 /  50  60  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  85  62  83  64 /  50  70  40  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  85  61  83  60 /  50  70  40  30
RIO RANCHO......................  85  62  83  64 /  60  70  50  30
SOCORRO.........................  91  64  89  64 /  50  60  30  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  76  57  76  58 /  80 100  70  50
TIJERAS.........................  78  58  78  57 /  60  90  60  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  80  55  79  54 /  60  80  50  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  73  56  75  57 /  60  80  60  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  81  58  80  58 /  60  80  50  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  87  62  85  62 /  60  60  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  76  58  76  58 /  60  50  30  10
CAPULIN.........................  70  57  73  57 /  80  50  60  50
RATON...........................  75  56  77  56 /  70  40  50  40
SPRINGER........................  77  57  78  57 /  70  50  50  50
LAS VEGAS.......................  73  55  74  55 /  80  80  60  40
CLAYTON.........................  77  62  83  62 /  50  40  40  30
ROY.............................  76  60  78  60 /  50  50  50  50
CONCHAS.........................  84  66  86  66 /  50  50  30  30
SANTA ROSA......................  84  65  87  65 /  50  40  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  86  65  88  66 /  30  40  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  86  65  87  66 /  20  40  10  20
PORTALES........................  88  67  89  67 /  20  30  10  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  88  67  88  67 /  30  30  10  20
ROSWELL.........................  95  68  97  69 /  20  10  10   5
PICACHO.........................  87  62  88  63 /  30  30  20  10
ELK.............................  80  60  80  60 /  30  30  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES... NMZ501-503-504-506-507-510>519-521>523-527>537.

&&

$$

33




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