[top]
000
FXUS65 KABQ 182337 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
537 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST THROUGH THE NEXT 24HRS EXCEPT WITH
SHORT-LIVED MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN BLOWING DUST NEAR VIRGA
SHOWERS THIS EVENING. A MODERATE WESTERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL
INCREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITH A FEW SURFACE WIND GUSTS NEAR 35KTS
POSSIBLE AT KLVS AND KTCC.
11
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...307 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013...
DEFINITELY MORE CU THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE STATE...AS OPPOSED TO
YESTERDAY. VIRGA HAS BEEN PROMINENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION HAS ACTUALLY
REACHED THE GROUND. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING FROM SE
UTAH UP TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
LIFT/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT...AND ITS EXPECTED THAT SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL WORK INTO NORTHWEST NM...BUT STILL LOOKING FOR
MORE SPRINKLES WITH GUSTY WINDS...GUSTS NEAR/OVER 50 MPH
POSSIBLE...THAN ANY STORM WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN THE STORY TODAY WITH
STRONG MIXING AND A HEALTHY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MORE ON THAT BELOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRICKY TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND ANY
PRECIP SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...PLUS PACIFIC FRONT WILL
HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA...BUT LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY KEEP
TEMPS ELEVATED. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.
SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY WILL SWING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND ACROSS NORTHERN NM ON MONDAY. A FEW MODELS SHOWING THIS
TROUGH TO ACTUALLY CLOSE OFF FOR A SHORT TIME. EXPANDED POPS JUST A
TAD MORE OVER THE JEMEZ AND SOUTHERN SANGRES...BUT JUST ISOLD AT
BEST. THIS TROUGH WILL USHER IN YET ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT AND GUSTY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES SUN-TUE LOOK TO GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD TO NEAR
OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL.
BACK DOOR FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEHIND IT. THIS MAY HELP
GENERATE A FEW STORMS OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. OTHERWISE...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE ON TAP AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY GET A BIG BOOST ON WEDNESDAY AREAWIDE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE RESOLVING WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEK.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...AND
INTERESTINGLY...THE ECMWF BRING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MUCH FURTHER
WESTWARD THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. STAY TUNED.
34
.FIRE WEATHER...
...EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RED
FLAG WARNING THROUGH 9 PM MDT FOR EAST...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ZONES. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A HANDFUL OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OF THE DRY VARIETY...WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
BEWARE OF POTENTIAL STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. RH
RECOVERY MOSTLY FAIR TONIGHT EXCEPT POOR ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS.
SUNDAY TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO TODAYS WEATHER PARAMETERS...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER IN THE NORTH AND EAST AND RH VALUES A
LITTLE HIGHER. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS THE EAST.
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS GOOD. AGAIN EXPECTING SEVERAL HOURS
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND FROM EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS A LITTLE LESS AND SHIFTED FARTHER TO EAST.
MIXING HEIGHTS LOWER SOME ON SUNDAY BUT STILL PORTRAYED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH EXCELLENT VENT RATES. MOSTLY FAIR
RH RECOVERIES SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL BRINGS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRAND VALLEY EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
TREND A BIT LOWER ALL AREAS. WITH THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES THE RISK
OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IS LESS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. WILL NOT INCLUDE
THESE ZONES IN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY. INCLUDED ZONES WILL
BE 106...107 AND 108. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES. MIN RH VALUES FROM 9 TO 15 IN THE WATCH
AREA...TEENS THROUGH 20S ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED EXCELLENT VENTILATION
RATES. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS
IN ITS WAKE.
STILL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE WIND WILL EASE OFF SOME ON TUESDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. BY MID WEEK MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC
NW MAKING ITS WAY EVER SO SLOWLY SOUTH. WEAK RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY
WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BUT AT THIS
POINT WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK. INSTEAD WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
A DRY LINE SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATER NEXT WEEK
RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
CHJ
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCT TO WIDELY SCT HIGH BASED -SHRA AND A FEW -TSRA TO DVLP MAINLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM GLENWOOD TO CQC THIS AFTN UNDER APPROACHING
COOLER AIR ALOFT. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
STRONGER CELLS...LIKELY TO PRODUCE BRIEF AND LOCALIZED DOWNBURST
GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 50 KTS. BEST CHANCES TO EXPERIENCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS ARE AT FMN...GUP AND SAF. CANNOT RULE OUT AT ABQ AND
LVS. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG VERTICAL MIXING WILL CREATE
NON CONVECTIVE SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS IN MOST TAFS
FOR THE AFTN. VISIBILITIES LOCALLY REDUCED IN BLOWING DUST IN
STRONGER GUSTS...BUT NOT INCLUDED IN ANY TAFS. WINDS DECREASING
AFTER 01Z OR 02Z THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE BY 15Z SUNDAY.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>109.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ106>108.
&&
$$
33
000
FXUS65 KABQ 182107
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
307 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
DEFINITELY MORE CU THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE STATE...AS OPPOSED TO
YESTERDAY. VIRGA HAS BEEN PROMINENT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST/CENTRAL
AREAS THIS AFTERNOON...BUT NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION HAS ACTUALLY
REACHED THE GROUND. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A BIT OF LIGHTNING FROM SE
UTAH UP TOWARD NORTH CENTRAL COLORADO ASSOCIATED WITH SOME
LIFT/INSTABILITY AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. THE TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO SLIDE EAST TONIGHT...AND ITS EXPECTED THAT SOME
SHOWERS/STORMS WILL WORK INTO NORTHWEST NM...BUT STILL LOOKING FOR
MORE SPRINKLES WITH GUSTY WINDS...GUSTS NEAR/OVER 50 MPH
POSSIBLE...THAN ANY STORM WITH SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION.
OTHERWISE...GUSTY WINDS HAVE ALREADY BEEN THE STORY TODAY WITH
STRONG MIXING AND A HEALTHY SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE THE MAIN STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...MORE ON THAT BELOW.
TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN BE TRICKY TONIGHT. CLOUD COVER AND ANY
PRECIP SHOULD LARGELY DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...PLUS PACIFIC FRONT WILL
HAVE MOVED THROUGH THE AREA...BUT LOCALLY BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY KEEP
TEMPS ELEVATED. EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS.
SECOND LOBE OF ENERGY WILL SWING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND ACROSS NORTHERN NM ON MONDAY. A FEW MODELS SHOWING THIS
TROUGH TO ACTUALLY CLOSE OFF FOR A SHORT TIME. EXPANDED POPS JUST A
TAD MORE OVER THE JEMEZ AND SOUTHERN SANGRES...BUT JUST ISOLD AT
BEST. THIS TROUGH WILL USHER IN YET ANOTHER PACIFIC FRONT AND GUSTY
WINDS. TEMPERATURES SUN-TUE LOOK TO GENERALLY TREND DOWNWARD TO NEAR
OR EVEN BELOW NORMAL.
BACK DOOR FRONT WILL COME DOWN THE PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BEHIND IT. THIS MAY HELP
GENERATE A FEW STORMS OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. OTHERWISE...
SHORTWAVE RIDGING WILL BE ON TAP AS WE GO INTO WEDNESDAY. TEMPS WILL
CORRESPONDINGLY GET A BIG BOOST ON WEDNESDAY AREAWIDE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE TROUBLE RESOLVING WHERE THE MOISTURE WILL
SET UP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE IN THE WEEK AND OVER THE WEEK.
THE GFS CONTINUES TO SUFFER FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...AND
INTERESTINGLY...THE ECMWF BRING THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MUCH FURTHER
WESTWARD THAN AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY. STAY TUNED.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THROUGH MONDAY...
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND THEY WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING. RH VALUES DROPPING INTO THE SINGLE
DIGITS OVER MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE RED
FLAG WARNING THROUGH 9 PM MDT FOR EAST...CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
ZONES. ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A HANDFUL OF
THUNDERSTORMS...MOSTLY OF THE DRY VARIETY...WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS...MAINLY OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
BEWARE OF POTENTIAL STRONG AND ERRATIC WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. RH
RECOVERY MOSTLY FAIR TONIGHT EXCEPT POOR ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS.
SUNDAY TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO TODAYS WEATHER PARAMETERS...ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER IN THE NORTH AND EAST AND RH VALUES A
LITTLE HIGHER. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER ACROSS THE EAST.
CURRENT RED FLAG WARNING LOOKS GOOD. AGAIN EXPECTING SEVERAL HOURS
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND FROM EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD.
THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS A LITTLE LESS AND SHIFTED FARTHER TO EAST.
MIXING HEIGHTS LOWER SOME ON SUNDAY BUT STILL PORTRAYED TO BE ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH EXCELLENT VENT RATES. MOSTLY FAIR
RH RECOVERIES SUNDAY NIGHT.
MONDAY STILL BRINGS CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE RIO GRAND VALLEY EAST TO THE TEXAS BORDER. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
TREND A BIT LOWER ALL AREAS. WITH THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES THE RISK
OF WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IS LESS...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN. WILL NOT INCLUDE
THESE ZONES IN A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR MONDAY. INCLUDED ZONES WILL
BE 106...107 AND 108. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES. MIN RH VALUES FROM 9 TO 15 IN THE WATCH
AREA...TEENS THROUGH 20S ELSEWHERE. CONTINUED EXCELLENT VENTILATION
RATES. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING...BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS
IN ITS WAKE.
STILL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE WIND WILL EASE OFF SOME ON TUESDAY.
NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. BY MID WEEK MODELS ARE
HINTING AT A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC
NW MAKING ITS WAY EVER SO SLOWLY SOUTH. WEAK RIDGING ON WEDNESDAY
WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME INCREASE IN SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. BUT AT THIS
POINT WINDS DO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE ANY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS LATE NEXT WEEK. INSTEAD WE COULD BE LOOKING AT
A DRY LINE SETTING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATER NEXT WEEK
RIGHT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
CHJ
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCT TO WIDELY SCT HIGH BASED -SHRA AND A FEW -TSRA TO DVLP MAINLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM GLENWOOD TO CQC THIS AFTN UNDER APPROACHING
COOLER AIR ALOFT. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
STRONGER CELLS...LIKELY TO PRODUCE BRIEF AND LOCALIZED DOWNBURST
GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 50 KTS. BEST CHANCES TO EXPERIENCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS ARE AT FMN...GUP AND SAF. CANNOT RULE OUT AT ABQ AND
LVS. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG VERTICAL MIXING WILL CREATE
NON CONVECTIVE SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS IN MOST TAFS
FOR THE AFTN. VISIBILITIES LOCALLY REDUCED IN BLOWING DUST IN
STRONGER GUSTS...BUT NOT INCLUDED IN ANY TAFS. WINDS DECREASING
AFTER 01Z OR 02Z THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE BY 15Z SUNDAY.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 44 74 43 70 / 10 0 0 5
DULCE........................... 33 67 32 65 / 10 10 5 10
CUBA............................ 38 70 37 68 / 20 5 0 5
GALLUP.......................... 40 73 37 69 / 10 0 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 35 69 34 65 / 10 0 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 40 75 40 70 / 10 0 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 43 75 42 71 / 0 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 42 80 42 81 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 33 60 31 59 / 20 10 10 20
LOS ALAMOS...................... 45 67 45 66 / 20 0 0 5
PECOS........................... 45 65 44 63 / 5 0 0 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 38 66 36 65 / 10 10 5 20
RED RIVER....................... 34 55 33 53 / 20 10 10 30
ANGEL FIRE...................... 29 61 27 60 / 10 5 5 20
TAOS............................ 34 68 34 66 / 10 5 0 10
MORA............................ 41 64 40 64 / 5 0 0 5
ESPANOLA........................ 43 73 43 72 / 5 0 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 46 67 45 65 / 10 0 0 5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 45 74 44 71 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 54 77 54 74 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 53 79 54 76 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 51 80 53 77 / 5 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 51 79 51 76 / 5 0 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 49 81 50 78 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 50 80 50 77 / 5 0 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 56 90 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 46 75 46 73 / 10 0 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 48 75 47 74 / 5 0 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 47 72 46 70 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 45 72 44 69 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 49 76 49 74 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 52 80 52 80 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 50 72 49 72 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 46 69 42 65 / 5 20 10 30
RATON........................... 42 74 40 69 / 5 10 5 20
SPRINGER........................ 42 73 41 70 / 5 5 0 10
LAS VEGAS....................... 45 72 42 70 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 52 79 48 74 / 0 10 5 20
ROY............................. 49 75 48 72 / 0 0 0 10
CONCHAS......................... 54 84 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 54 82 53 80 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 59 89 56 86 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 55 86 53 85 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 56 87 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 57 85 56 85 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 60 92 58 92 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 56 84 55 85 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 53 79 53 79 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>109.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ106>108.
&&
$$
34
000
FXUS65 KABQ 181825
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1225 PM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCT TO WIDELY SCT HIGH BASED -SHRA AND A FEW -TSRA TO DVLP MAINLY
NORTH OF A LINE FROM GLENWOOD TO CQC THIS AFTN UNDER APPROACHING
COOLER AIR ALOFT. CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY
STRONGER CELLS...LIKELY TO PRODUCE BRIEF AND LOCALIZED DOWNBURST
GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 50 KTS. BEST CHANCES TO EXPERIENCE STRONG
WIND GUSTS ARE AT FMN...GUP AND SAF. CANNOT RULE OUT AT ABQ AND
LVS. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG VERTICAL MIXING WILL CREATE
NON CONVECTIVE SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 KTS IN MOST TAFS
FOR THE AFTN. VISIBILITIES LOCALLY REDUCED IN BLOWING DUST IN
STRONGER GUSTS...BUT NOT INCLUDED IN ANY TAFS. WINDS DECREASING
AFTER 01Z OR 02Z THIS EVENING...THEN INCREASE BY 15Z SUNDAY.
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...339 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013...
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN TROUGH AXIS WITH THE SECONDARY WAVE LATE
MONDAY/TUESDAY. CURRENTLY AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN IS SPREADING AN ABUNDANCE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN NM. MEANWHILE A VERY WELL DEFINED DRYLINE
IS POSITIONED IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER. DEWPOINTS TO THE
WEST OF THE DRYLINE ARE IN THE 10S AND 20S...WITH EVEN SOME SINGLE
DIGITS AROUND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN AFTER ABOUT 2 PM. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
20S SO MORE SHOWERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE GFS IS
MUCH DRIER HOWEVER IT STILL SHOWS SIMILAR INSTABILITY. ISOLD STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE PACIFIC FRONT CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN UTAH WILL SLIDE EAST
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON...USHERING IN COOLER
TEMPS. 700MB TEMPS FALL FROM +14C CURRENTLY TO +8C AT 00Z THEN +4C
BY 12Z SUNDAY...WHICH IS NEARLY 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME COOL TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS FOR
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEYS WHERE FREEZES ARE POSSIBLE. THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHEAR ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND SPREAD STRONG
MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE STATE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
INTO MONDAY. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. SOME CONCERNS ABOUT WIND
ADVISORIES FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE EAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
MOS GUIDANCE TRENDS. SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN MTS.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER WAVE EXITS AND ANOTHER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE WEST COAST.
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP FOR AREAS WITHIN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NM RIGHT ON TIME FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF MAY. OUR FIRST 90F READING
IN THE ABQ METRO IS FORECAST NOW ON THURSDAY THE 23RD...WHICH IS
ONLY 4 DAYS AHEAD OF THE AVERAGE FIRST DATE.
BIG QUESTIONS CONTINUE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE DRYLINE BY
LATE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE SHIFTING WEST INTO THE PLAINS BY
THURSDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE WEST COAST. SO OF
COURSE AS MANY OF US AROUND HERE HAVE BEEN THINKING...MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO TREND FARTHER EAST WITH A DRIER MORE SHEARED TROUGH
EJECTING INTO THE ROCKIES. GUYER
.FIRE WEATHER...
...EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AFTER SOME OVERNIGHT WIND SPEED REDUCTION...THE UPCOMING DAYLIGHT
HOURS WILL BRING MUCH INCREASED MIXING DOWN OF SOME HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN A BIT AS WELL.
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SFC WINDS BEGINNING MID TO LATE MORN AND
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS ACROSS THE EAST...SOUTH AND SOME
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE AFTN. THUS RED FLAG
WARNINGS CONTINUED FOR THESE AREAS. MOST OF THIS AREA WILL SEE MIN
RH READINGS CRATER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. AFTN TEMPS ACROSS THE
EAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL. A FEW TO PERHAPS LOCALLY
SCT THUNDERSTORMS...MORE DRY THAN WET...EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS INCLUDING MT TAYLOR...CHUSKAS...TUSAS AND JEMEZ AFTER
NOON. AS IS USUAL EXPECT RELATIVELY BRIEF AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
FROM THE STRONGER CONVECTION...PERHAPS BETWEEN 40 AND 55 MPH.
SUNDAY TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO TODAYS PATTERN WITH THE WIND
PARAMETERS...THOUGH CRITICAL LVL WIND SPEEDS JUST A BIT REDUCED FROM
TODAY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE LESS AND SHIFTED A LITTLE
FARTHER TO EAST. MAX RH VALUES INCREASE WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED MAJORITY OF AREA. AFTN TEMPERATURES TO TREND
DOWN BY SEVERAL DEGREES NE HALF...BUT LITTLE CHANGED ELSEWHERE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE MID MORN THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTN...
ESPECIALLY EASTERN NM. AGAIN EXPECTING SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
FROM EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MIXING HEIGHTS LOWER
SOME ON SUNDAY BUT STILL PORTRAYED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
MONDAY STILL BRINGS SOME CONTINUED FAIR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES.
DAYTIME HIGHS TRENDING JUST A FEW DEGREES LOWER STILL FROM SUNDAY
HIGHS. WHILE A SMALLER AREA IS IMPACTED...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH WIND
AND LOW ENOUGH MINIMUM RH TO CREATE SOME LOWER GRADE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM E CENTRAL PLAINS WEST TO EAST SLOPES SANDIA
AND MANZANO MTNS AND ALSO PERHAPS INCLUDING MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER. MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES IN ALL BUT
PERHAPS FAR NE NM. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS MON AFTN INTO TUE MORN...BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS
IN ITS WAKE.
MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT MAKING ITS WAY TO NEAR OR A LITTLE WAYS
EITHER SIDE OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY TUE. STILL INDICATIONS
ARE THAT WIND WILL EASE OFF SOME ON TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. BY MID WEEK MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NW MAKING ITS
WAY SOUTHWARD CAUSING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE STATE. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME DRYLINE THUNDERSTORMS BACKING INTO
EASTERN PORTION OF NM...BUT STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODEL AS TO HOW FAR WEST ENOUGH MOISTURE INCREASE CAN GET
AND THUS HOW FAR WEST THIS ACTIVITY WOULD DEVELOP. THUS CONFIDENCE
IS STILL LOWER THAN IS PREFERRED LATE NEXT WEEK. 43
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>109.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KABQ 181217
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
617 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
HIGH CLOUDS THIS MORN GIVE WAY TO HEATING INDUCED MID LVL CLOUDS
AND BUILDUPS MIDDAY THROUGH THE AFTN. SCT TO WIDELY SCT HIGH
BASED -SHRA AND A FEW -TSRA TO DVLP MAINLY NORTH OF A LINE FROM
GLENWOOD TO CLINES CORNERS THIS AFTN UNDER APPROACHING COLDER POOL
ALOFT. STIL CIGS SHOULD REMAIN VFR. AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION...
ESPECIALLY STRONGER CELLS...LIKELY TO PRODUCE BRIEF AND LOCALIZED
DOWNBURST GUSTS BETWEEN 35 AND 50 KTS AND THAT IS TO A DEGREE
ACCOUNTED FOR IN FMN...GUP AND SAF TAF TEMPO GROUPS ASSOCIATED
WITH MARGINAL VCSH IN PREVAILING GROUPS. NOTE THAT TEMPO GROUP FOR
CONVECTIVE GUSTS NOT CURRENTLY INCLUDED IN ABQ TAF DUE TO FACT
THAT THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR ANY TRUE VCNTY SHRA...VCSH...
TO REACH GROUND THERE...YET STRONG CONVECTIVE GUSTS STILL
POSSIBLE MID AFTN TO VERY EARLY EVE. JUST CANNOT INCLUDE TEMPO
GROUP FOR CONVECTIVE GUSTS AS AT LEAST VCSH/VCTS MUST BE MENTIONED
IN ASSOCIATED PREVAILING GROUP. SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AND STRONG
VERTICAL MIXING WILL CREATE NON CONVECTIVE SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS
TO NEAR OR A LITTLE OVER 30 KTS IN MOST TAFS FOR THE AFTN.
VISIBILITIES LOCALLY REDUCED IN BLOWING DUST IN STRONGER GUSTS.
WINDS DECREASING AFTER 01Z OR 02Z THIS EVENING.
43
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...339 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013...
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN TROUGH AXIS WITH THE SECONDARY WAVE LATE
MONDAY/TUESDAY. CURRENTLY AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN IS SPREADING AN ABUNDANCE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN NM. MEANWHILE A VERY WELL DEFINED DRYLINE
IS POSITIONED IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER. DEWPOINTS TO THE
WEST OF THE DRYLINE ARE IN THE 10S AND 20S...WITH EVEN SOME SINGLE
DIGITS AROUND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN AFTER ABOUT 2 PM. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
20S SO MORE SHOWERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE GFS IS
MUCH DRIER HOWEVER IT STILL SHOWS SIMILAR INSTABILITY. ISOLD STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE PACIFIC FRONT CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN UTAH WILL SLIDE EAST
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON...USHERING IN COOLER
TEMPS. 700MB TEMPS FALL FROM +14C CURRENTLY TO +8C AT 00Z THEN +4C
BY 12Z SUNDAY...WHICH IS NEARLY 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME COOL TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS FOR
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEYS WHERE FREEZES ARE POSSIBLE. THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHEAR ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND SPREAD STRONG
MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE STATE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
INTO MONDAY. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. SOME CONCERNS ABOUT WIND
ADVISORIES FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE EAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
MOS GUIDANCE TRENDS. SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN MTS.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER WAVE EXITS AND ANOTHER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE WEST COAST.
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP FOR AREAS WITHIN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NM RIGHT ON TIME FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF MAY. OUR FIRST 90F READING
IN THE ABQ METRO IS FORECAST NOW ON THURSDAY THE 23RD...WHICH IS
ONLY 4 DAYS AHEAD OF THE AVERAGE FIRST DATE.
BIG QUESTIONS CONTINUE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE DRYLINE BY
LATE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE SHIFTING WEST INTO THE PLAINS BY
THURSDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE WEST COAST. SO OF
COURSE AS MANY OF US AROUND HERE HAVE BEEN THINKING...MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO TREND FARTHER EAST WITH A DRIER MORE SHEARED TROUGH
EJECTING INTO THE ROCKIES. GUYER
.FIRE WEATHER...
...EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AFTER SOME OVERNIGHT WIND SPEED REDUCTION...THE UPCOMING DAYLIGHT
HOURS WILL BRING MUCH INCREASED MIXING DOWN OF SOME HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN A BIT AS WELL.
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SFC WINDS BEGINNING MID TO LATE MORN AND
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS ACROSS THE EAST...SOUTH AND SOME
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE AFTN. THUS RED FLAG
WARNINGS CONTINUED FOR THESE AREAS. MOST OF THIS AREA WILL SEE MIN
RH READINGS CRATER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. AFTN TEMPS ACROSS THE
EAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL. A FEW TO PERHAPS LOCALLY
SCT THUNDERSTORMS...MORE DRY THAN WET...EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS INCLUDING MT TAYLOR...CHUSKAS...TUSAS AND JEMEZ AFTER
NOON. AS IS USUAL EXPECT RELATIVELY BRIEF AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
FROM THE STRONGER CONVECTION...PERHAPS BETWEEN 40 AND 55 MPH.
SUNDAY TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO TODAYS PATTERN WITH THE WIND
PARAMETERS...THOUGH CRITICAL LVL WIND SPEEDS JUST A BIT REDUCED FROM
TODAY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE LESS AND SHIFTED A LITTLE
FARTHER TO EAST. MAX RH VALUES INCREASE WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED MAJORITY OF AREA. AFTN TEMPERATURES TO TREND
DOWN BY SEVERAL DEGREES NE HALF...BUT LITTLE CHANGED ELSEWHERE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE MID MORN THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTN...
ESPECIALLY EASTERN NM. AGAIN EXPECTING SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
FROM EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MIXING HEIGHTS LOWER
SOME ON SUNDAY BUT STILL PORTRAYED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
MONDAY STILL BRINGS SOME CONTINUED FAIR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES.
DAYTIME HIGHS TRENDING JUST A FEW DEGREES LOWER STILL FROM SUNDAY
HIGHS. WHILE A SMALLER AREA IS IMPACTED...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH WIND
AND LOW ENOUGH MINIMUM RH TO CREATE SOME LOWER GRADE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM E CENTRAL PLAINS WEST TO EAST SLOPES SANDIA
AND MANZANO MTNS AND ALSO PERHAPS INCLUDING MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER. MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES IN ALL BUT
PERHAPS FAR NE NM. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS MON AFTN INTO TUE MORN...BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS
IN ITS WAKE.
MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT MAKING ITS WAY TO NEAR OR A LITTLE WAYS
EITHER SIDE OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY TUE. STILL INDICATIONS
ARE THAT WIND WILL EASE OFF SOME ON TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. BY MID WEEK MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NW MAKING ITS
WAY SOUTHWARD CAUSING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE STATE. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME DRYLINE THUNDERSTORMS BACKING INTO
EASTERN PORTION OF NM...BUT STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODEL AS TO HOW FAR WEST ENOUGH MOISTURE INCREASE CAN GET
AND THUS HOW FAR WEST THIS ACTIVITY WOULD DEVELOP. THUS CONFIDENCE
IS STILL LOWER THAN IS PREFERRED LATE NEXT WEEK. 43
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>109.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KABQ 180939
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
339 AM MDT SAT MAY 18 2013
.DISCUSSION...
MADE ONLY MINOR CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR
A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN TROUGH AXIS WITH THE SECONDARY WAVE LATE
MONDAY/TUESDAY. CURRENTLY AN UPPER TROUGH AXIS SHIFTING EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN IS SPREADING AN ABUNDANCE OF MID AND UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER OVER WESTERN NM. MEANWHILE A VERY WELL DEFINED DRYLINE
IS POSITIONED IMMEDIATELY ALONG THE TX/NM BORDER. DEWPOINTS TO THE
WEST OF THE DRYLINE ARE IN THE 10S AND 20S...WITH EVEN SOME SINGLE
DIGITS AROUND THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION CONTINUES
TO ADVERTISE CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN/WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN AFTER ABOUT 2 PM. SURFACE DEWPOINTS WILL STRUGGLE INTO THE
20S SO MORE SHOWERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH ARE LIKELY. THE GFS IS
MUCH DRIER HOWEVER IT STILL SHOWS SIMILAR INSTABILITY. ISOLD STORMS
ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.
THE PACIFIC FRONT CURRENTLY OVER WESTERN UTAH WILL SLIDE EAST
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON...USHERING IN COOLER
TEMPS. 700MB TEMPS FALL FROM +14C CURRENTLY TO +8C AT 00Z THEN +4C
BY 12Z SUNDAY...WHICH IS NEARLY 1 STANDARD DEVIATION BELOW CLIMO.
THIS WILL LEAD TO SOME COOL TEMPS MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS FOR
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN VALLEYS WHERE FREEZES ARE POSSIBLE. THE
UPPER TROUGH AXIS WILL SHEAR ACROSS NORTHERN NM AND SPREAD STRONG
MID AND UPPER LEVEL WINDS OVER THE STATE FOR AN EXTENDED PERIOD
INTO MONDAY. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. SOME CONCERNS ABOUT WIND
ADVISORIES FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE EAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
MOS GUIDANCE TRENDS. SOME LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE POSSIBLE AS WELL
ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN MTS.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER THE AREA TUESDAY AS THE
UPPER WAVE EXITS AND ANOTHER TROUGH TAKES SHAPE ALONG THE WEST COAST.
HOT TEMPERATURES WILL DEVELOP FOR AREAS WITHIN CENTRAL AND EASTERN
NM RIGHT ON TIME FOR THE THIRD WEEK OF MAY. OUR FIRST 90F READING
IN THE ABQ METRO IS FORECAST NOW ON THURSDAY THE 23RD...WHICH IS
ONLY 4 DAYS AHEAD OF THE AVERAGE FIRST DATE.
BIG QUESTIONS CONTINUE ON WHAT WILL HAPPEN WITH THE DRYLINE BY
LATE NEXT WEEK ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. MODELS HAVE BEEN VERY
CONSISTENT WITH THE FEATURE SHIFTING WEST INTO THE PLAINS BY
THURSDAY WHILE THE UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS DOWN THE WEST COAST. SO OF
COURSE AS MANY OF US AROUND HERE HAVE BEEN THINKING...MODELS ARE
BEGINNING TO TREND FARTHER EAST WITH A DRIER MORE SHEARED TROUGH
EJECTING INTO THE ROCKIES. GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
AFTER SOME OVERNIGHT WIND SPEED REDUCTION...THE UPCOMING DAYLIGHT
HOURS WILL BRING MUCH INCREASED MIXING DOWN OF SOME HIGHER WIND
SPEEDS ALOFT AND SFC PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL TIGHTEN A BIT AS WELL.
RESULT WILL BE INCREASING SFC WINDS BEGINNING MID TO LATE MORN AND
CONTINUING INTO THE AFTN. THIS WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING ACROSS ACROSS THE EAST...SOUTH AND SOME
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE AFTN. THUS RED FLAG
WARNINGS CONTINUED FOR THESE AREAS. MOST OF THIS AREA WILL SEE MIN
RH READINGS CRATER INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS. AFTN TEMPS ACROSS THE
EAST 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE SEASONAL NORMAL. A FEW TO PERHAPS LOCALLY
SCT THUNDERSTORMS...MORE DRY THAN WET...EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS INCLUDING MT TAYLOR...CHUSKAS...TUSAS AND JEMEZ AFTER
NOON. AS IS USUAL EXPECT RELATIVELY BRIEF AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
FROM THE STRONGER CONVECTION...PERHAPS BETWEEN 40 AND 55 MPH.
SUNDAY TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO TODAYS PATTERN WITH THE WIND
PARAMETERS...THOUGH CRITICAL LVL WIND SPEEDS JUST A BIT REDUCED FROM
TODAY. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS A LITTLE LESS AND SHIFTED A LITTLE
FARTHER TO EAST. MAX RH VALUES INCREASE WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES EXPECTED MAJORITY OF AREA. AFTN TEMPERATURES TO TREND
DOWN BY SEVERAL DEGREES NE HALF...BUT LITTLE CHANGED ELSEWHERE. WIND
SPEEDS WILL AGAIN INCREASE MID MORN THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY AFTN...
ESPECIALLY EASTERN NM. AGAIN EXPECTING SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
FROM EAST SLOPES CENTRAL MTN CHAIN EASTWARD. MIXING HEIGHTS LOWER
SOME ON SUNDAY BUT STILL PORTRAYED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.
MONDAY STILL BRINGS SOME CONTINUED FAIR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES.
DAYTIME HIGHS TRENDING JUST A FEW DEGREES LOWER STILL FROM SUNDAY
HIGHS. WHILE A SMALLER AREA IS IMPACTED...THERE IS STILL ENOUGH WIND
AND LOW ENOUGH MINIMUM RH TO CREATE SOME LOWER GRADE CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM E CENTRAL PLAINS WEST TO EAST SLOPES SANDIA
AND MANZANO MTNS AND ALSO PERHAPS INCLUDING MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
DURING THE AFTERNOON. ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONFINED TO NEAR
THE COLORADO BORDER. MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES IN ALL BUT
PERHAPS FAR NE NM. BACK DOOR COLD FRONT TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS MON AFTN INTO TUE MORN...BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS
IN ITS WAKE.
MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT MAKING ITS WAY TO NEAR OR A LITTLE WAYS
EITHER SIDE OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY TUE. STILL INDICATIONS
ARE THAT WIND WILL EASE OFF SOME ON TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. BY MID WEEK MODELS ARE HINTING AT A
DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NW MAKING ITS
WAY SOUTHWARD CAUSING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN OVER
THE STATE. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME DRYLINE THUNDERSTORMS BACKING INTO
EASTERN PORTION OF NM...BUT STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN GFS AND
EUROPEAN MODEL AS TO HOW FAR WEST ENOUGH MOISTURE INCREASE CAN GET
AND THUS HOW FAR WEST THIS ACTIVITY WOULD DEVELOP. THUS CONFIDENCE
IS STILL LOWER THAN IS PREFERRED LATE NEXT WEEK. 43
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VERY BRIEF EXCURSIONS TO MVFR IN BLOWING DUST AS VIRGA OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NM PRODUCES RAPID AND SUDDEN GUSTS. VIRGA ACTIVITY FOCUS
MOVING NORTH AND EAST IN TURBULENT SOUTHWEST FLOW IN CIRCULATION
ABOUT LARGE WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA. SWATH
OF CLOUD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...AND ADVANCED EASTWARD AS FAR AS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AOA BKN/OVC100 HEADING INTO SAT NIGHT. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING RAPIDLY FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL SET UP ANOTHER WINDY DAY FROM 16Z ONWARD SAT MORNING
THROUGH SAT EVENING. SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO 30 KTS IN TAFS FOR GUP AND
LVS...WITH ALL OTHER SPOTS G25KT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. WINDS DECREASING GRADUALLY AFTER 02Z SUNSET SAT
EVENING. VISIBILITIES LOCALLY REDUCED IN BLOWING DUST IN STRONGER
GUSTS. SHY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 74 43 73 41 / 30 10 0 0
DULCE........................... 70 31 66 31 / 30 10 10 5
CUBA............................ 72 36 72 35 / 30 20 5 0
GALLUP.......................... 72 39 73 35 / 10 10 0 0
EL MORRO........................ 68 32 69 31 / 10 10 0 0
GRANTS.......................... 74 43 76 41 / 10 10 0 0
QUEMADO......................... 74 43 75 42 / 5 0 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 78 40 81 41 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 64 36 60 34 / 40 20 10 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 71 46 69 47 / 20 20 0 0
PECOS........................... 69 45 66 45 / 5 5 0 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 70 38 67 37 / 10 10 10 5
RED RIVER....................... 61 32 56 33 / 20 20 10 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 65 25 60 26 / 10 10 5 5
TAOS............................ 72 35 69 36 / 10 10 5 0
MORA............................ 71 41 66 41 / 5 5 0 0
ESPANOLA........................ 77 41 74 43 / 5 5 0 0
SANTA FE........................ 72 46 69 47 / 5 10 0 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 76 44 74 45 / 5 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 78 52 77 52 / 5 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 80 54 79 54 / 0 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 81 53 81 51 / 0 5 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 82 50 81 51 / 0 5 0 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 82 51 82 50 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 81 49 81 50 / 0 5 0 0
SOCORRO......................... 88 56 90 55 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 77 46 76 46 / 10 10 0 0
TIJERAS......................... 78 48 76 48 / 5 5 0 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 76 46 73 46 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 75 44 73 45 / 0 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 77 49 76 49 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 80 51 81 51 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 73 48 73 48 / 0 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 77 45 70 42 / 0 5 20 10
RATON........................... 80 43 74 40 / 5 5 10 5
SPRINGER........................ 81 42 74 41 / 5 5 5 0
LAS VEGAS....................... 76 44 72 43 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 89 52 82 49 / 0 0 10 5
ROY............................. 83 48 77 48 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 90 54 86 53 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 87 54 84 54 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 95 59 90 57 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 92 55 89 56 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 94 57 89 58 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 90 56 87 57 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 95 58 93 59 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 88 55 85 55 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 81 52 80 52 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>109.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 9 PM MDT SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.
&&
$$
GUYER
000
FXUS65 KABQ 180533 AAB
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1133 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VERY BRIEF EXCURSIONS TO MVFR IN BLOWING DUST AS VIRGA OVER NORTH
CENTRAL NM PRODUCES RAPID AND SUDDEN GUSTS. VIRGA ACTIVITY FOCUS
MOVING NORTH AND EAST IN TURBULENT SOUTHWEST FLOW IN CIRCULATION
ABOUT LARGE WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING INTO CENTRAL ARIZONA. SWATH
OF CLOUD AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY MOVED INTO WESTERN NEW
MEXICO...AND ADVANCED EASTWARD AS FAR AS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.
CIGS SHOULD REMAIN AOA BKN/OVC100 HEADING INTO SAT NIGHT. SURFACE
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING RAPIDLY FROM EASTERN COLORADO TO CENTRAL
TEXAS WILL SET UP ANOTHER WINDY DAY FROM 16Z ONWARD SAT MORNING
THROUGH SAT EVENING. SOUTHWEST GUSTS TO 30 KTS IN TAFS FOR GUP AND
LVS...WITH ALL OTHER SPOTS G25KT THROUGH THE BULK OF THE AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING. WINDS DECREASING GRADUALLY AFTER 02Z SUNSET SAT
EVENING. VISIBILITIES LOCALLY REDUCED IN BLOWING DUST IN STRONGER
GUSTS.
SHY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...336 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013...
BATCH OF MOISTURE THAT CAME UP OVER NM TODAY HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT OF A
DISAPPOINTMENT AS EVEN THE CU HAS BEEN PRETTY PALTRY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. PROBABLY SOME VIRGA
OUT THERE...BUT GIVEN THE POOR SHOWING THUS FAR...HAVE REMOVED THE
CHICKEN 10-POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
OTHERWISE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MAINLY
LOOKING FOR A DRY AND WINDY PERIOD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...THOUGH THE FAR NORTH COULD SEE A FEW SPITS AND RUMBLES.
BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COME
ACROSS TONIGHT. THIS MAY WREAK HAVOC WITH LOW TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST...SO EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR THAT. DOESNT LOOK LIKE THE DRY LINE/HIGHER OCTANE
DEW POINTS WILL BACK INTO EASTERN NM TONIGHT...SO NO MENTION OF FOG
IN THE FORECAST. TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY...AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 8 DEGREES WILL BE ON TAP.
THAT SAID...STILL UP TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
STRONG W/SW WINDS AND SOME DOWN SLOPING WILL BATTLE THE OTHERWISE
COOLER TEMPS. STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME HOPE FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH/NW...BUT THINK MUCH OF THIS WILL OF
THE DRY VARIETY.
MORE OF THE SAME FOR SUNDAY...THOUGH THE NAM SUGGESTS THE BACK DOOR
FRONT WILL NUDGE INTO NE NM. APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESS MONDAY MORNING...BUT THIS WILL BE QUICKLY
SCOURED OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND CROSS
NORTHERN NM MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTAL PUSH IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND THE INCREASED MOISTURE BEHIND THE
FRONT...MAY RESULT IN A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. INSERTED SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...THEN ALL EYES ARE ON THE
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD. AS
THE WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW SLIDES SOUTHWARD LATE THIS
WEEK...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE ADVECTING
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND BEYOND...AND POTENTIALLY
WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THOUGH THE GFS IS
SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...THE SCENARIO WOULD
CERTAINLY INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM CENTRAL NM
TO THE TEXAS BORDER. HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF LOOKS TO SQUASH OUR
PRECIPITATION HOPES. THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT DIG THE WEST COAST LOW
NEARLY AS FAR SOUTH AND THEN EJECTS IT NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN
MONTANA OVER THE WEEKEND. THUS...THE GULF MOISTURE IS KEPT AT AN
ARMS REACH...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NM/TX BORDER. STAY
TUNED...THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THE MODELS TO WAFFLE BACK.
34
.FIRE WEATHER...
...EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
GALLUP IS CURRENTLY HITTING RED FLAG CRITERIA. HAVE ADDED THAT FIRE
WEATHER ZONE TO THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
ADDED FIRE WEATHER ZONES 106...107 AND 109 TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR
SATURDAY. CONTINUED THE WATCH FOR SUNDAY AS IS. THINKING MONDAY MAY
NEED A WATCH BUT CONDITIONS ARE COOLER AND A LITTLE LESS OF A HAINES
SO WILL HOLD IN ISSUING AT THIS TIME...MAINLY SOUTH/EAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK EASTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. MAX RH VALUES WILL BE TRENDING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT IN MOST AREAS WITH FAIR RECOVERIES
EXPECTED IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND POOR CONDITIONS
CENTRAL AND EAST.
WIND SPEEDS WILL AGAIN BEGIN TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING SATURDAY.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHERE MIN RH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED. FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND. BIGGEST MAX TEMP
DIFFERENCES WILL BE FELT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY TEN DEGREES BELOW PREVIOUS DAY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMAL. SCATTERED DRY/WET THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING MT TAYLOR...CHUSKAS...TUSAS AND JEMEZ.
THEY WILL PROBABLY BE FASTER MOVING WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE AT 90TH PERCENTILE OR
HIGHER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ON SUNDAY CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING VERY SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER PATTERN
NOT CHANGING TOO MUCH. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS LESS. MAX
RH VALUES INCREASE WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED AREA WIDE.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE TRENDING DOWN. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS IN EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH MIN
RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE HOURS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. MIXING HEIGHTS LOWER SOME ON SUNDAY BUT STILL
PORTRAYED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AS WE MAKE OUR WAY INTO MONDAY WE WILL STILL BE FEELING THE AFFECTS
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS MODELS HAVE A SECONDARY LOW FORMING
BEHIND THE FIRST AND RETROGRADING TO THE WEST BEFORE IT MOVES SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. INTO MONDAY NIGHT
THE LOW WILL CROSS NE NM ALONG THE NM COLORADO...OKLAHOMA BORDER
REGION. CONTINUED FAIR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS HIGHS. LOOKING AT CONTINUED
INCREASED WINDS IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MONDAY AFTERNOON BOASTS A SWATH OF 5 AND 6 HAINES VALUES
AREA WIDE. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHERN
COLORADO BORDER. MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES. MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN DEW POINTS IN
THE FAR NE CORNER.
MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE
INTO TUESDAY. A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT LEAVING
US WITH ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTING THIS FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT WIND WILL ABATE SOME ON TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. INTO MID WEEK MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NW MAKING ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD CAUSING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
STATE. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME DRY LINE THUNDERSTORMS BACKING INTO THE
STATE BUT STILL NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR WEST THIS ACTIVITY
WOULD GET. THE GFS IS BULLISH AND THE ECMWF IS NOT. THUS CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>109.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.
&&
$$
33/34
000
FXUS65 KABQ 172347 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
547 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VIZ FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. BROAD SWATH OF CLOUD ACROSS
EASTERN ARIZONA GRADUALLY NUDGING EASTWARD TOWARD NM BORDER IN
CIRCULATION ABOUT TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDING FROM THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
AHEAD OF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
FROM WESTERN NEBRASKA TO CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SUPPORT A GUSTY
STATEWIDE START TO SAT MORNING FROM 16Z ONWARD...WITH WEST TO
SOUTHWEST GUSTS 30 KTS IN FOR LVS AND TCC THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON.
WINDS DECREASING AROUND 02Z SUNSET SAT NIGHT.
SHY
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...336 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013...
BATCH OF MOISTURE THAT CAME UP OVER NM TODAY HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT OF A
DISAPPOINTMENT AS EVEN THE CU HAS BEEN PRETTY PALTRY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. PROBABLY SOME VIRGA
OUT THERE...BUT GIVEN THE POOR SHOWING THUS FAR...HAVE REMOVED THE
CHICKEN 10-POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
OTHERWISE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MAINLY
LOOKING FOR A DRY AND WINDY PERIOD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...THOUGH THE FAR NORTH COULD SEE A FEW SPITS AND RUMBLES.
BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COME
ACROSS TONIGHT. THIS MAY WREAK HAVOC WITH LOW TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST...SO EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR THAT. DOESNT LOOK LIKE THE DRYLINE/HIGHER OCTANE
DEWPOINTS WILL BACK INTO EASTERN NM TONIGHT...SO NO MENTION OF FOG
IN THE FORECAST. TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY...AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 8 DEGREES WILL BE ON TAP.
THAT SAID...STILL UP TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
STRONG W/SW WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPING WILL BATTLE THE OTHERWISE
COOLER TEMPS. STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME HOPE FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH/NW...BUT THINK MUCH OF THIS WILL OF
THE DRY VARIETY.
MORE OF THE SAME FOR SUNDAY...THOUGH THE NAM SUGGESTS THE BACK DOOR
FRONT WILL NUDGE INTO NE NM. APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESS MONDAY MORNING...BUT THIS WILL BE QUICKLY
SCOURED OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND CROSS
NORTHERN NM MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTAL PUSH IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND THE INCREASED MOISTURE BEHIND THE
FRONT...MAY RESULT IN A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. INSERTED SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...THEN ALL EYES ARE ON THE
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD. AS
THE WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW SLIDES SOUTHWARD LATE THIS
WEEK...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE ADVECTING
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND BEYOND...AND POTENTIALLY
WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THOUGH THE GFS IS
SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...THE SCENARIO WOULD
CERTAINLY INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM CENTRAL NM
TO THE TEXAS BORDER. HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF LOOKS TO SQUASH OUR
PRECIPITATION HOPES. THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT DIG THE WEST COAST LOW
NEARLY AS FAR SOUTH AND THEN EJECTS IT NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN
MONTANA OVER THE WEEKEND. THUS...THE GULF MOISTURE IS KEPT AT AN
ARMS REACH...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NM/TX BORDER. STAY
TUNED...THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THE MODELS TO WAFFLE BACK.
34
.FIRE WEATHER...
...EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
GALLUP IS CURRENTLY HITTING RED FLAG CRITERIA. HAVE ADDED THAT FIRE
WEATHER ZONE TO THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
ADDED FIRE WEATHER ZONES 106...107 AND 109 TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR
SATURDAY. CONTINUED THE WATCH FOR SUNDAY AS IS. THINKING MONDAY MAY
NEED A WATCH BUT CONDITIONS ARE COOLER AND A LITTLE LESS OF A HAINES
SO WILL HOLD IN ISSUING AT THIS TIME...MAINLY SOUTH/EAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK EASTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. MAX RH VALUES WILL BE TRENDING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT IN MOST AREAS WITH FAIR RECOVERIES
EXPECTED IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND POOR CONDITIONS
CENTRAL AND EAST.
WIND SPEEDS WILL AGAIN BEGIN TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING SATURDAY.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHERE MIN RH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED. FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND. BIGGEST MAX TEMP
DIFFERENCES WILL BE FELT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY TEN DEGREES BELOW PREVIOUS DAY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMAL. SCATTERED DRY/WET THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING MT TAYLOR...CHUSKAS...TUSAS AND JEMEZ.
THEY WILL PROBABLY BE FASTER MOVING WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE AT 90TH PERCENTILE OR
HIGHER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ON SUNDAY CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING VERY SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER PATTERN
NOT CHANGING TOO MUCH. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS LESS. MAX
RH VALUES INCREASE WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE TRENDING DOWN. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS IN EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH MIN
RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE HOURS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. MIXING HEIGHTS LOWER SOME ON SUNDAY BUT STILL
PORTRAYED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AS WE MAKE OUR WAY INTO MONDAY WE WILL STILL BE FEELING THE AFFECTS
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS MODELS HAVE A SECONDARY LOW FORMING
BEHIND THE FIRST AND RETROGRADING TO THE WEST BEFORE IT MOVES SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. INTO MONDAY NIGHT
THE LOW WILL CROSS NE NM ALONG THE NM COLORADO...OKLAHOMA BORDER
REGION. CONTINUED FAIR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS HIGHS. LOOKING AT CONTINUED
INCREASED WINDS IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MONDAY AFTERNOON BOASTS A SWATH OF 5 AND 6 HAINES VALUES
AREAWIDE. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHERN
COLORADO BORDER. MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES. MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS IN
THE FAR NE CORNER.
MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE
INTO TUESDAY. A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT LEAVING
US WITH ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTING THIS FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT WIND WILL ABATE SOME ON TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. INTO MID WEEK MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NW MAKING ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD CAUSING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
STATE. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME DRYLINE THUNDERSTORMS BACKING INTO THE
STATE BUT STILL NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR WEST THIS ACTIVITY
WOULD GET. THE GFS IS BULLISH AND THE ECMWF IS NOT. THUS CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-105.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>109.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.
&&
$$
33/34
000
FXUS65 KABQ 172136
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
336 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
BATCH OF MOISTURE THAT CAME UP OVER NM TODAY HAS BEEN SOMEWHAT OF A
DISAPPOINTMENT AS EVEN THE CU HAS BEEN PRETTY PALTRY...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF ACROSS THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. PROBABLY SOME VIRGA
OUT THERE...BUT GIVEN THE POOR SHOWING THUS FAR...HAVE REMOVED THE
CHICKEN 10-POPS FOR THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
OTHERWISE...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE GOING FORECAST. MAINLY
LOOKING FOR A DRY AND WINDY PERIOD FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...THOUGH THE FAR NORTH COULD SEE A FEW SPITS AND RUMBLES.
BATCH OF HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL COME
ACROSS TONIGHT. THIS MAY WREAK HAVOC WITH LOW TEMPERATURES...
ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST...SO EVENING CREW WILL NEED TO BE ON THE
LOOKOUT FOR THAT. DOESNT LOOK LIKE THE DRYLINE/HIGHER OCTANE
DEWPOINTS WILL BACK INTO EASTERN NM TONIGHT...SO NO MENTION OF FOG
IN THE FORECAST. TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE ON SATURDAY...AND
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF 3 TO 8 DEGREES WILL BE ON TAP.
THAT SAID...STILL UP TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE PLAINS AS
STRONG W/SW WINDS AND SOME DOWNSLOPING WILL BATTLE THE OTHERWISE
COOLER TEMPS. STILL LOOKS LIKE SOME HOPE FOR SOME LIGHT
PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTH/NW...BUT THINK MUCH OF THIS WILL OF
THE DRY VARIETY.
MORE OF THE SAME FOR SUNDAY...THOUGH THE NAM SUGGESTS THE BACK DOOR
FRONT WILL NUDGE INTO NE NM. APPEARS THAT THE FRONT WILL MAKE A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESS MONDAY MORNING...BUT THIS WILL BE QUICKLY
SCOURED OUT MONDAY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...A SECONDARY UPPER LEVEL
PIECE OF ENERGY WILL DROP INTO THE FOUR CORNERS AREA AND CROSS
NORTHERN NM MONDAY NIGHT. AS THIS OCCURS...A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD
FRONTAL PUSH IS EXPECTED. THE COMBINATION OF THE UPPER LEVEL LIFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH AND THE INCREASED MOISTURE BEHIND THE
FRONT...MAY RESULT IN A FEW STORMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY. INSERTED SOME SMALL POPS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS.
A QUIET DAY IS EXPECTED FOR WEDNESDAY...THEN ALL EYES ARE ON THE
POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION CHANCES FOR THE LATE WEEK/WEEKEND PERIOD. AS
THE WEST COAST UPPER LEVEL TROUGH/LOW SLIDES SOUTHWARD LATE THIS
WEEK...THE GFS CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE ADVECTING
INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS THURSDAY AND BEYOND...AND POTENTIALLY
WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THOUGH THE GFS IS
SUFFERING FROM CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK ISSUES...THE SCENARIO WOULD
CERTAINLY INCREASE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM CENTRAL NM
TO THE TEXAS BORDER. HOWEVER...THE LATEST ECMWF LOOKS TO SQUASH OUR
PRECIPITATION HOPES. THE 12Z RUN DOES NOT DIG THE WEST COAST LOW
NEARLY AS FAR SOUTH AND THEN EJECTS IT NORTHEAST OVER WESTERN
MONTANA OVER THE WEEKEND. THUS...THE GULF MOISTURE IS KEPT AT AN
ARMS REACH...GENERALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE NM/TX BORDER. STAY
TUNED...THERE IS STILL TIME FOR THE MODELS TO WAFFLE BACK.
34
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...EXTENDED PERIOD OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...
GALLUP IS CURRENTLY HITTING RED FLAG CRITERIA. HAVE ADDED THAT FIRE
WEATHER ZONE TO THE RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
ADDED FIRE WEATHER ZONES 106...107 AND 109 TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR
SATURDAY. CONTINUED THE WATCH FOR SUNDAY AS IS. THINKING MONDAY MAY
NEED A WATCH BUT CONDITIONS ARE COOLER AND A LITTLE LESS OF A HAINES
SO WILL HOLD IN ISSUING AT THIS TIME...MAINLY SOUTH/EAST.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE ITS TREK EASTWARD OVER THE
WEEKEND. GUSTY WINDS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS BEFORE
DECREASING AFTER SUNSET. MAX RH VALUES WILL BE TRENDING SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS NIGHT IN MOST AREAS WITH FAIR RECOVERIES
EXPECTED IN WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND POOR CONDITIONS
CENTRAL AND EAST.
WIND SPEEDS WILL AGAIN BEGIN TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING SATURDAY.
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE EAST AND
SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON HOURS
WHERE MIN RH READINGS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ARE EXPECTED. FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ON THE DOWNWARD TREND. BIGGEST MAX TEMP
DIFFERENCES WILL BE FELT IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE WHERE
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEARLY TEN DEGREES BELOW PREVIOUS DAY.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL CONTINUE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE
SEASONAL NORMAL. SCATTERED DRY/WET THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE
NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS INCLUDING MT TAYLOR...CHUSKAS...TUSAS AND JEMEZ.
THEY WILL PROBABLY BE FASTER MOVING WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTY OUTFLOW
WINDS. MIXING HEIGHTS ARE PROJECTED TO BE AT 90TH PERCENTILE OR
HIGHER DURING THE AFTERNOON.
ON SUNDAY CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING VERY SIMILAR WITH THE UPPER PATTERN
NOT CHANGING TOO MUCH. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL IS LESS. MAX
RH VALUES INCREASE WITH FAIR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES EXPECTED AREAWIDE.
DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN BE TRENDING DOWN. WIND SPEEDS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS IN EAST
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. ELEVATED WIND SPEEDS ALONG WITH MIN
RH VALUES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS WILL LEAD TO MULTIPLE HOURS OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY EASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. MIXING HEIGHTS LOWER SOME ON SUNDAY BUT STILL
PORTRAYED TO BE ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.
AS WE MAKE OUR WAY INTO MONDAY WE WILL STILL BE FEELING THE AFFECTS
OF THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AS MODELS HAVE A SECONDARY LOW FORMING
BEHIND THE FIRST AND RETROGRADING TO THE WEST BEFORE IT MOVES SOUTH
AND EAST ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE. INTO MONDAY NIGHT
THE LOW WILL CROSS NE NM ALONG THE NM COLORADO...OKLAHOMA BORDER
REGION. CONTINUED FAIR OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL
BE VERY SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS DAYS HIGHS. LOOKING AT CONTINUED
INCREASED WINDS IN CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL AREAS. CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS. MONDAY AFTERNOON BOASTS A SWATH OF 5 AND 6 HAINES VALUES
AREAWIDE. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE CONFINED TO THE FAR NORTHERN
COLORADO BORDER. MIN RH VALUES IN THE TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS
EXPECTED WITH CONTINUED EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES. MONDAY
AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY WE WILL BEGIN TO SEE A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS BRINGING SOME INCREASE IN DEWPOINTS IN
THE FAR NE CORNER.
MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT MAKING ITS WAY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE
INTO TUESDAY. A RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD BEHIND THE FRONT LEAVING
US WITH ZONAL TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS HAVE BEEN
SUGGESTING THIS FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS SO CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING
THAT WIND WILL ABATE SOME ON TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. INTO MID WEEK MODELS ARE HINTING AT A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE PACIFIC NW MAKING ITS WAY
SOUTHWARD CAUSING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE
STATE. MODELS STILL SHOW SOME DRYLINE THUNDERSTORMS BACKING INTO THE
STATE BUT STILL NOT VERY CONFIDENT ON HOW FAR WEST THIS ACTIVITY
WOULD GET. THE GFS IS BULLISH AND THE ECMWF IS NOT. THUS CONFIDENCE
IS LOWER LATE NEXT WEEK.
&&
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY EAST TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE AS WELL AS
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. LVS AND GUP COULD SEE GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 35KT. NO WETTING PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH HIGH BASED
VIRGA PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AROUND SUNSET WITH STRONG
WINDS EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY.
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WONT BE A RETURN OF THE DRYLINE AND LOW CLOUDS
TONIGHT.
21
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 49 77 44 73 / 0 20 10 0
DULCE........................... 35 71 33 67 / 0 20 10 10
CUBA............................ 40 73 38 73 / 0 20 20 5
GALLUP.......................... 42 74 37 73 / 0 10 10 0
EL MORRO........................ 35 69 33 69 / 0 10 10 0
GRANTS.......................... 42 76 41 74 / 0 20 10 0
QUEMADO......................... 44 75 42 74 / 0 5 0 0
GLENWOOD........................ 40 79 40 81 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 36 65 33 60 / 5 30 20 10
LOS ALAMOS...................... 52 72 48 69 / 0 20 20 0
PECOS........................... 51 70 47 68 / 0 5 5 0
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 41 74 39 67 / 5 10 10 10
RED RIVER....................... 36 63 34 56 / 5 20 20 10
ANGEL FIRE...................... 29 67 27 61 / 0 10 10 5
TAOS............................ 38 75 35 68 / 0 10 10 5
MORA............................ 45 73 42 68 / 0 5 5 0
ESPANOLA........................ 45 78 43 74 / 0 5 5 0
SANTA FE........................ 49 73 47 69 / 0 10 10 0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 45 78 44 74 / 0 5 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 58 79 54 77 / 0 5 5 0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 57 81 55 79 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 53 82 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 54 81 52 80 / 0 0 5 0
LOS LUNAS....................... 51 82 52 82 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 53 82 51 81 / 0 5 5 0
SOCORRO......................... 58 89 56 90 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 50 78 47 76 / 5 10 10 0
TIJERAS......................... 51 78 49 77 / 0 5 5 0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 50 76 46 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 49 76 44 73 / 5 0 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 52 77 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 54 81 52 81 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 52 73 49 73 / 5 0 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 51 79 46 71 / 0 0 5 20
RATON........................... 44 83 42 73 / 0 5 5 10
SPRINGER........................ 45 82 42 75 / 0 5 5 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 47 77 45 74 / 0 0 0 0
CLAYTON......................... 55 91 52 79 / 0 0 5 10
ROY............................. 53 84 49 77 / 0 0 0 0
CONCHAS......................... 56 89 54 86 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 59 87 55 84 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 61 94 59 89 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 57 92 55 89 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 58 93 57 90 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 59 91 57 88 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 60 96 59 93 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 58 88 55 87 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 56 81 52 81 / 5 0 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-105.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>109.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.
&&
$$
34
000
FXUS65 KABQ 171741
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1141 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MAKES ITS WAY EAST TO THE NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA WE WILL SEE AN INCREASE IN HIGH AND MID CLOUDS
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL AREAS OF THE STATE AS WELL AS
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON
HOURS AT ALL TAF LOCATIONS. LVS AND GUP COULD SEE GUSTS AS HIGH
AS 35KT. NO WETTING PRECIPITATION ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH HIGH BASED
VIRGA PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS IS LIKELY WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE AROUND SUNSET WITH STRONG
WINDS EXPECTED TO RETURN DURING THE MID MORNING HOURS ON SATURDAY.
IT LOOKS LIKE THERE WONT BE A RETURN OF THE DRYLINE AND LOW CLOUDS
TONIGHT.
21
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...314 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013...
AN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NE TOWARD NM ON INCREASING
SW FLOW WILL HELP DEVELOP SOME MORE OF THOSE PESKY AFTERNOON GUSTY
SPRINKLES AND STORMS TODAY. GRIDDED POP VALUES FROM NEARLY ALL 00Z
MODELS WERE BELOW MENTION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO VERY DRY WITH
TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS
DO MOISTEN UP THE MID AND LOW LEVELS...WEAK INSTABILITY IS THERE...
AND THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR VIRGA TO DEVELOP QUITE PROLIFICALLY
DESPITE VERY DRY AIR SO DID LEAVE IN MENTION TODAY. AN AREA OF
CRITICAL FIRE WX ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MTS INTO THE NE HIGHLANDS HAS BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN WITH
SEVERAL FACTORS LEANING US IN DIRECTION TO RAISE THE RED FLAGS
THERE TODAY. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
10 TO 15F ABOVE CLIMO. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE FOR
MOST AREAS...AND WINDY OVER THE NE HIGHLANDS.
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
A COOL DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM FOR SATURDAY...WHILE THE
EAST WILL REMAIN HOT UNDER DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WINDS WILL BE MORE
ON THE WINDY SIDE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z NAM AND EVEN THE
LATEST 06Z NAM ARE TRENDING WETTER WITH THE QPF VALUES FOR THE NW
AND WESTERN MTS...SO HAVE RAISED POPS AND QPF A LITTLE IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. SOME AREAS MAY SEE WETTING PRECIP VALUES ALONG THE DIVIDE.
TEMPS WILL TREND 10F COOLER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WITH READINGS
ACTUALLY NEAR 5F BELOW NORMAL. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS
WILL IMPACT THE EAST AGAIN.
ANY SHOWERS LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE SHAPE BEHIND A
PACIFIC FRONT MOVING ESE THRU THE AREA...TRENDING TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A 30-50KT 700-500MB JET CORE
WILL EJECT THRU THE BASE OF THE SHEARING TROUGH SUNDAY AND CREATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE EAST AND MORE CRITICAL
FIRE WX CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL TREND DOWN ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES
FOR THE NORTH WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING FOR THE FAR NORTHERN
HIGH TERRAIN. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING
ANOTHER WAVE WITHIN THE TROUGH AND KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MTS INTO MONDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL EITHER WAY AS 700MB TEMPS AVERAGE 4-6C OVER NORTHERN NM...
WHICH IS QUITE COOL FOR LATE MAY. THE EASTERN PLAINS HOWEVER WILL
REMAIN BREEZY/WINDY WITH MORE CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS.
BEYOND MONDAY THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A QUICKLY PASSING
SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SOUTH TO SW FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION FOR MID WEEK. THE AVERAGE FIRST DATE OF 90F AT THE ABQ
SUNPORT IS MAY 27TH...AND WE HAVE 89F ON MAY 23RD SO THE HEAT IS
GETTING CLOSER. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION WANT TO DEVELOP DRYLINE
STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS BEGINNING THURSDAY/FRIDAY NEXT WEEK
BUT WE SHALL SEE. GUYER
.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PERIOD TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW
HUMIDITY/HIGH HAINES AND GUSTY WINDS...
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY PASS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...KEEPING WINDS ALOFT
STRONG. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ADDING ANOTHER INGREDIENT FOR BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. DAILY ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITIES...HIGH HAINES INDICES IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS ALL POINT TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THESE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BEGIN TO CONGEAL TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...WHERE A
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AS THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH OF THE POLAR JET STREAM PASSES OVERHEAD CAUSING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS AND POTENTIALLY ALSO SOUTHERN AREAS. WITH THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST PACKAGE...WE WILL REPLACE FIRE WEATHER WATCHES WITH RED
FLAG WARNINGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS FOR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE COVERAGE OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FROM QUEMADO TO CLINES CORNERS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP
WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ZONES. WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH ALONG AND E OF I-25 ON SUNDAY...WHEN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FETCH OF THE POLAR JET STREAM MOVES OVERHEAD. A WEAK PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL PASS FROM THE WEST SATURDAY RESULTING IN SLIGHT COOLING
BY SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
MOST OF THE EAST WITH CONTINUED HIGH HAINES AND LOW HUMIDITY
CONCERNS. TO MAKE MATTERS MORE HAZARDOUS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
DRIER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL AREAS SATURDAY...AND ALONG MUCH OF THE CO BORDER ON
SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...WIDESPREAD
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS THE NORTHWESTERLY FETCH
OF THE POLAR JET STREAM BECOMES MORE WESTERLY OVER NM IN RESPONSE TO
THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THUS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EASTWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A RESPITE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON
TUESDAY. WINDS ALOFT AND SEASONABLY GOOD MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN
GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION AND A NICE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRESCRIBED BURNS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WORK WEEK SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHWEST US AND CAUSES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN OVER
NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN ALSO SHOWS PROMISE FOR MAKING THE DRY LINE
BECOME ACTIVE...WHICH WILL SEEM UNUSUAL GIVEN THE LACK OF DRY LINE
ACTIVITY IN EASTERN NM OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF YEARS. 44
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-108.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ106-107-109.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KABQ 171200 AAA
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
ELEVATED MOISTURE WILL MOVE OVER THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE
SOUTHWEST PRODUCING PERIODS OF BROKEN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS TODAY.
THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF HIGH BASED VIRGA AROUND...AND ANY OF
THESE SHOWERS THAT EVAPORATE BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DRY MICROBURSTS. THERE MAY EVEN BE A FEW
ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS. OTHERWISE...GUSTY
WINDS WILL DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON THEN DIMINISH WITH SUNSET.
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY WITH BETTER COVERAGE OF
MAINLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WEST CENTRAL TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.
44
&&
.PREV DISCUSSION...314 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013...
AN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NE TOWARD NM ON INCREASING
SW FLOW WILL HELP DEVELOP SOME MORE OF THOSE PESKY AFTERNOON GUSTY
SPRINKLES AND STORMS TODAY. GRIDDED POP VALUES FROM NEARLY ALL 00Z
MODELS WERE BELOW MENTION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO VERY DRY WITH
TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS
DO MOISTEN UP THE MID AND LOW LEVELS...WEAK INSTABILITY IS THERE...
AND THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR VIRGA TO DEVELOP QUITE PROLIFICALLY
DESPITE VERY DRY AIR SO DID LEAVE IN MENTION TODAY. AN AREA OF
CRITICAL FIRE WX ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MTS INTO THE NE HIGHLANDS HAS BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN WITH
SEVERAL FACTORS LEANING US IN DIRECTION TO RAISE THE RED FLAGS
THERE TODAY. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
10 TO 15F ABOVE CLIMO. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE FOR
MOST AREAS...AND WINDY OVER THE NE HIGHLANDS.
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
A COOL DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM FOR SATURDAY...WHILE THE
EAST WILL REMAIN HOT UNDER DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WINDS WILL BE MORE
ON THE WINDY SIDE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z NAM AND EVEN THE
LATEST 06Z NAM ARE TRENDING WETTER WITH THE QPF VALUES FOR THE NW
AND WESTERN MTS...SO HAVE RAISED POPS AND QPF A LITTLE IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. SOME AREAS MAY SEE WETTING PRECIP VALUES ALONG THE DIVIDE.
TEMPS WILL TREND 10F COOLER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WITH READINGS
ACTUALLY NEAR 5F BELOW NORMAL. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS
WILL IMPACT THE EAST AGAIN.
ANY SHOWERS LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE SHAPE BEHIND A
PACIFIC FRONT MOVING ESE THRU THE AREA...TRENDING TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A 30-50KT 700-500MB JET CORE
WILL EJECT THRU THE BASE OF THE SHEARING TROUGH SUNDAY AND CREATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE EAST AND MORE CRITICAL
FIRE WX CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL TREND DOWN ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES
FOR THE NORTH WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING FOR THE FAR NORTHERN
HIGH TERRAIN. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING
ANOTHER WAVE WITHIN THE TROUGH AND KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MTS INTO MONDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL EITHER WAY AS 700MB TEMPS AVERAGE 4-6C OVER NORTHERN NM...
WHICH IS QUITE COOL FOR LATE MAY. THE EASTERN PLAINS HOWEVER WILL
REMAIN BREEZY/WINDY WITH MORE CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS.
BEYOND MONDAY THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A QUICKLY PASSING
SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SOUTH TO SW FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION FOR MID WEEK. THE AVERAGE FIRST DATE OF 90F AT THE ABQ
SUNPORT IS MAY 27TH...AND WE HAVE 89F ON MAY 23RD SO THE HEAT IS
GETTING CLOSER. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION WANT TO DEVELOP DRYLINE
STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS BEGINNING THURSDAY/FRIDAY NEXT WEEK
BUT WE SHALL SEE. GUYER
.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PERIOD TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW
HUMIDITY/HIGH HAINES AND GUSTY WINDS...
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY PASS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...KEEPING WINDS ALOFT
STRONG. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ADDING ANOTHER INGREDIENT FOR BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. DAILY ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITIES...HIGH HAINES INDICES IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS ALL POINT TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THESE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BEGIN TO CONGEAL TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...WHERE A
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AS THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH OF THE POLAR JET STREAM PASSES OVERHEAD CAUSING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS AND POTENTIALLY ALSO SOUTHERN AREAS. WITH THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST PACKAGE...WE WILL REPLACE FIRE WEATHER WATCHES WITH RED
FLAG WARNINGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS FOR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE COVERAGE OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FROM QUEMADO TO CLINES CORNERS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP
WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ZONES. WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH ALONG AND E OF I-25 ON SUNDAY...WHEN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FETCH OF THE POLAR JET STREAM MOVES OVERHEAD. A WEAK PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL PASS FROM THE WEST SATURDAY RESULTING IN SLIGHT COOLING
BY SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
MOST OF THE EAST WITH CONTINUED HIGH HAINES AND LOW HUMIDITY
CONCERNS. TO MAKE MATTERS MORE HAZARDOUS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
DRIER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL AREAS SATURDAY...AND ALONG MUCH OF THE CO BORDER ON
SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...WIDESPREAD
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS THE NORTHWESTERLY FETCH
OF THE POLAR JET STREAM BECOMES MORE WESTERLY OVER NM IN RESPONSE TO
THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THUS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EASTWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A RESPITE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON
TUESDAY. WINDS ALOFT AND SEASONABLY GOOD MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN
GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION AND A NICE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRESCRIBED BURNS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WORK WEEK SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHWEST US AND CAUSES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN OVER
NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN ALSO SHOWS PROMISE FOR MAKING THE DRY LINE
BECOME ACTIVE...WHICH WILL SEEM UNUSUAL GIVEN THE LACK OF DRY LINE
ACTIVITY IN EASTERN NM OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF YEARS. 44
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-108.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ106-107-109.
&&
$$
000
FXUS65 KABQ 170914
AFDABQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
314 AM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013
.DISCUSSION...
AN AREA OF MID LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTING NE TOWARD NM ON INCREASING
SW FLOW WILL HELP DEVELOP SOME MORE OF THOSE PESKY AFTERNOON GUSTY
SPRINKLES AND STORMS TODAY. GRIDDED POP VALUES FROM NEARLY ALL 00Z
MODELS WERE BELOW MENTION. SURFACE DEWPOINTS ARE ALSO VERY DRY WITH
TEENS AND EVEN SINGLE DIGITS EARLY THIS MORNING. HOWEVER...MODELS
DO MOISTEN UP THE MID AND LOW LEVELS...WEAK INSTABILITY IS THERE...
AND THE TREND HAS BEEN FOR VIRGA TO DEVELOP QUITE PROLIFICALLY
DESPITE VERY DRY AIR SO DID LEAVE IN MENTION TODAY. AN AREA OF
CRITICAL FIRE WX ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MTS INTO THE NE HIGHLANDS HAS BECOME MORE OF A CONCERN WITH
SEVERAL FACTORS LEANING US IN DIRECTION TO RAISE THE RED FLAGS
THERE TODAY. SEE FIRE WX DISCUSSION FOR MORE DETAILS. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY FOR THE EAST WHERE HIGHS WILL BE
10 TO 15F ABOVE CLIMO. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE FOR
MOST AREAS...AND WINDY OVER THE NE HIGHLANDS.
THE LARGE SCALE TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT BASIN WILL BRING
A COOL DOWN ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM FOR SATURDAY...WHILE THE
EAST WILL REMAIN HOT UNDER DRY DOWNSLOPE FLOW. WINDS WILL BE MORE
ON THE WINDY SIDE FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. MODELS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT DEVELOPMENT OF MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG AND WEST OF
THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THE 00Z NAM AND EVEN THE
LATEST 06Z NAM ARE TRENDING WETTER WITH THE QPF VALUES FOR THE NW
AND WESTERN MTS...SO HAVE RAISED POPS AND QPF A LITTLE IN THE HIGH
TERRAIN. SOME AREAS MAY SEE WETTING PRECIP VALUES ALONG THE DIVIDE.
TEMPS WILL TREND 10F COOLER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WITH READINGS
ACTUALLY NEAR 5F BELOW NORMAL. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS
WILL IMPACT THE EAST AGAIN.
ANY SHOWERS LINGERING INTO EARLY SATURDAY EVENING WILL TAPER OFF
QUICKLY AFTER SUNSET. COLD ADVECTION WILL TAKE SHAPE BEHIND A
PACIFIC FRONT MOVING ESE THRU THE AREA...TRENDING TEMPS SEVERAL
DEGREES COOLER INTO SATURDAY NIGHT. A 30-50KT 700-500MB JET CORE
WILL EJECT THRU THE BASE OF THE SHEARING TROUGH SUNDAY AND CREATE
ANOTHER ROUND OF WINDY CONDITIONS FOR THE EAST AND MORE CRITICAL
FIRE WX CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL TREND DOWN ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES
FOR THE NORTH WITH PRECIP CHANCES CONTINUING FOR THE FAR NORTHERN
HIGH TERRAIN. THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS AGGRESSIVE WITH DEVELOPING
ANOTHER WAVE WITHIN THE TROUGH AND KEEPING THE POTENTIAL FOR
SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN MTS INTO MONDAY. TEMPS WILL REMAIN BELOW
NORMAL EITHER WAY AS 700MB TEMPS AVERAGE 4-6C OVER NORTHERN NM...
WHICH IS QUITE COOL FOR LATE MAY. THE EASTERN PLAINS HOWEVER WILL
REMAIN BREEZY/WINDY WITH MORE CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS.
BEYOND MONDAY THE MODELS CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE A QUICKLY PASSING
SHORT WAVE RIDGE FOLLOWED BY INCREASING SOUTH TO SW FLOW AND WARM
ADVECTION FOR MID WEEK. THE AVERAGE FIRST DATE OF 90F AT THE ABQ
SUNPORT IS MAY 27TH...AND WE HAVE 89F ON MAY 23RD SO THE HEAT IS
GETTING CLOSER. THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTION WANT TO DEVELOP DRYLINE
STORMS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS BEGINNING THURSDAY/FRIDAY NEXT WEEK
BUT WE SHALL SEE. GUYER
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER PERIOD TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW
HUMIDITY/HIGH HAINES AND GUSTY WINDS...
A COUPLE OF UPPER LEVEL TROUGHS WILL GRADUALLY PASS NORTH OF THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...KEEPING WINDS ALOFT
STRONG. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH TODAY
THROUGH SATURDAY ADDING ANOTHER INGREDIENT FOR BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS. DAILY ROUNDS OF WIDESPREAD SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITIES...HIGH HAINES INDICES IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE...ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS ALL POINT TO AN EXTENDED PERIOD
OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THESE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS
WILL BEGIN TO CONGEAL TODAY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...WHERE A
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
STRONG SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD SATURDAY AS THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FETCH OF THE POLAR JET STREAM PASSES OVERHEAD CAUSING
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS EASTERN
AREAS AND POTENTIALLY ALSO SOUTHERN AREAS. WITH THIS MORNINGS
FORECAST PACKAGE...WE WILL REPLACE FIRE WEATHER WATCHES WITH RED
FLAG WARNINGS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND EASTERN PLAINS FOR
SATURDAY. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE COVERAGE OF CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FROM QUEMADO TO CLINES CORNERS IS HIGH ENOUGH TO KEEP
WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR THOSE ZONES. WILL ALSO CONTINUE WITH THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH ALONG AND E OF I-25 ON SUNDAY...WHEN THE NORTHWESTERLY
FETCH OF THE POLAR JET STREAM MOVES OVERHEAD. A WEAK PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL PASS FROM THE WEST SATURDAY RESULTING IN SLIGHT COOLING
BY SUNDAY...BUT TEMPERATURES SHOULD STILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
MOST OF THE EAST WITH CONTINUED HIGH HAINES AND LOW HUMIDITY
CONCERNS. TO MAKE MATTERS MORE HAZARDOUS...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF
DRIER THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MOUNTAINS TODAY...ACROSS NORTHWEST AND
NORTH CENTRAL AREAS SATURDAY...AND ALONG MUCH OF THE CO BORDER ON
SUNDAY.
ALTHOUGH THE COOLING TREND WILL CONTINUE ON MONDAY...WIDESPREAD
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AS THE NORTHWESTERLY FETCH
OF THE POLAR JET STREAM BECOMES MORE WESTERLY OVER NM IN RESPONSE TO
THE SECOND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
ROCKIES. THUS...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FROM THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EASTWARD
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY
NIGHT AND A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
TUESDAY...RESULTING IN A RESPITE FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON
TUESDAY. WINDS ALOFT AND SEASONABLY GOOD MIXING SHOULD RESULT IN
GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION AND A NICE WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR
PRESCRIBED BURNS.
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE COMING WORK WEEK SHOULD BRING
ANOTHER ACTIVE PERIOD OF FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MEANDERS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
NORTHWEST US AND CAUSES SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WINDS TO STRENGTHEN OVER
NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN ALSO SHOWS PROMISE FOR MAKING THE DRY LINE
BECOME ACTIVE...WHICH WILL SEEM UNUSUAL GIVEN THE LACK OF DRY LINE
ACTIVITY IN EASTERN NM OVER THE PAST COUPLE OF YEARS. 44
&&
.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VIZ FOR THE NEXT 24 HRS. FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENING AND
BACKING TO THE SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF LARGE SYSTEM MOVING OVER
THE CALIFORNIA COAST. SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENING FROM EASTERN
COLORADO INTO CENTRAL TX WILL HELP BOOST FRI AFTERNOON SOUTHWEST
WIND SPEEDS WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS TO 25 KTS FROM 19Z ONWARD AND
CONTINUING THROUGH 02Z SUNSET FRI EVENING. SOME CLOUD AOA BKN150 WILL
WORK IN OVER EASTERN NM AFTER 03Z FRI EVENING. SHY
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON...................... 83 49 76 44 / 0 0 20 10
DULCE........................... 78 37 71 34 / 0 0 20 20
CUBA............................ 81 40 73 38 / 0 0 20 20
GALLUP.......................... 80 43 72 40 / 0 0 10 10
EL MORRO........................ 76 36 70 34 / 0 0 10 10
GRANTS.......................... 83 47 75 45 / 0 0 20 10
QUEMADO......................... 79 45 74 42 / 0 0 5 0
GLENWOOD........................ 82 40 79 40 / 0 0 0 0
CHAMA........................... 71 39 66 37 / 5 5 30 30
LOS ALAMOS...................... 77 50 73 47 / 0 0 20 20
PECOS........................... 75 50 70 46 / 0 0 5 5
CERRO/QUESTA.................... 77 43 72 39 / 5 5 10 10
RED RIVER....................... 66 38 62 35 / 5 5 20 20
ANGEL FIRE...................... 71 29 67 26 / 0 0 10 20
TAOS............................ 78 40 73 36 / 0 0 10 20
MORA............................ 77 45 71 41 / 0 0 5 5
ESPANOLA........................ 83 45 78 43 / 0 0 5 5
SANTA FE........................ 77 51 73 48 / 0 0 10 10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................ 82 48 77 45 / 0 0 10 10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS........... 83 61 79 53 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS............. 86 57 82 55 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY.............. 87 56 83 53 / 0 0 5 5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA........... 89 53 83 52 / 0 0 5 5
LOS LUNAS....................... 87 54 83 52 / 0 0 0 0
RIO RANCHO...................... 88 53 82 51 / 0 0 5 5
SOCORRO......................... 92 59 87 57 / 0 0 0 0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST......... 80 51 76 47 / 5 5 10 10
TIJERAS......................... 82 51 78 49 / 0 0 10 10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA............... 81 49 75 46 / 0 0 0 0
CLINES CORNERS.................. 81 49 75 45 / 5 5 0 0
GRAN QUIVIRA.................... 82 52 77 49 / 0 0 0 0
CARRIZOZO....................... 85 55 81 53 / 0 0 0 0
RUIDOSO......................... 78 53 72 49 / 5 5 0 0
CAPULIN......................... 83 51 80 45 / 0 0 0 10
RATON........................... 86 45 83 42 / 0 0 5 10
SPRINGER........................ 86 45 82 42 / 0 0 0 5
LAS VEGAS....................... 81 48 77 44 / 0 0 0 5
CLAYTON......................... 92 56 90 52 / 0 0 0 5
ROY............................. 87 51 83 48 / 0 0 0 5
CONCHAS......................... 94 57 90 53 / 0 0 0 0
SANTA ROSA...................... 93 58 89 54 / 0 0 0 0
TUCUMCARI....................... 98 63 95 60 / 0 0 0 0
CLOVIS.......................... 94 59 92 56 / 0 0 0 0
PORTALES........................ 95 62 93 59 / 0 0 0 0
FORT SUMNER..................... 94 59 93 56 / 0 0 0 0
ROSWELL......................... 97 60 96 58 / 0 0 0 0
PICACHO......................... 91 58 87 55 / 0 0 0 0
ELK............................. 85 56 80 52 / 5 5 0 0
&&
.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 9 PM MDT SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-108.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ106-107-109.
&&
$$
| 
