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000
FXUS65 KABQ 310932
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS STILL HOLDING FIRM THROUGH
THURSDAY FOLLOWED FINALLY BY A RETURN TO NEARER NORMAL
TEMPERATURES....AT LEAST FOR 2 TO 3 DAYS. BUT A MAJOR UPTICK IN
WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL PRECEDE THE COOLDOWN. SOME AREAS
OF BLOWING DUST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
MARK THIS WINDY PERIOD. BEFORE THE WINDS THOUGH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE MAJORITY BEING
DRY...WILL REPEAT MAINLY OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EASES ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CERTAINLY SOME VARIABILITY IN WX CONDITIONS UPCOMING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE IN THE WIND AND TEMP
DEPARTMENT. ISOLATED...MORE DRY THAN WET...SHOWERS AND STORMS
AGAIN IN THE FCST FOR MAINLY THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE PRIMARILY
ACROSS AND JUST EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONGER WINDS WED AND
ESPECIALLY THU AS WINDS ALOFT AND TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
BOTH CONTRIBUTE TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE SFC. LATTER TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THU THAN TODAY AND CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS LOOK
PRETTY LIKELY FOR SEVERAL HOURS WED ALONG AND SOME DISTANCE EITHER
SIDE OF INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR MAINLY E FROM CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND
ALSO FOR A LITTLE LESS TIME WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS TO
EXPAND TO MOST OF FCST AREA THU. MORE DETAILS IN FIRE WX
DISCUSSION. ALSO WILL LIKELY SE AT LEAST SOME PERIODIC BLOWING
DUST THU AFTN AND TO LESSER DEGREE WED AFTN. DID ADD SOME LOW
GRADE POPS TO NORTHERN MTNS...MINUS THE JEMEZ...WED...BUT AGAIN
SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART.

WITH THE WESTERLIES ALOFT BACKING DOWN A BIT LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI
A QUASI BACK DOOR FRONTAL PUSH MAY INTRODUCE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS FOR
THIS PERIOD...BUT KEEPING ONLY THE INHERITED LOW POPS FOR NOW. A
PACIFIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE STATE FROM
THE NW...BUT LIKELY WILL BE DRY. STILL WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO
CLOSER TO NORMALS TEMPS FOR 2 OR 3 DAYS. MOST EXTENDED FCST MODELS
ARE NOW PREDICTABLY STAYING DRY...OR ALMOST ENTIRELY SO...FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS ALSO MAY RAMP UP SOME.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL SPRING
PATTERN...COMPLETE WITH STRONG WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES AND CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ACROSS
THE WEST. CENTRAL NM MAY SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS
AS WELL. CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WIDESPREAD...WITH
ALL AREAS BELOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALONG THE AZ AND UT BORDER WILL MOVE EAST TODAY
ACROSS THE STATE WHILE A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SLIDES INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED MIXED WET AND DRY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND POINTS JUST EASTWARD DUE
TO THE STEERING FLOW. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER. ALL AREAS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. NO VENTILATION
ISSUES TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY LINGER ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRES OR OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. RH
RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY FAIR.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. STRONG MIXING
WILL ALLOW MODERATE MID LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS ARE NOT EXCESSIVELY STRONG...25 TO 35 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL INCREASE
THE SURFACE GRADIENT. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NM
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTN AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 15
PERCENT. STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL ACTUALLY BE OVER THE WESTERN
HIGH TERRAIN WEDNESDAY. IT IS LOOKING LIKE A FEW HOURS OF WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS ZONE 105 SO WILL ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE EASTERN ZONES
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAINES INDICES OF MOSTLY FIVE
ARE EXPECTED WITH EXCELLENT VENT RATES AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY.

A WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY ON THURSDAY.
THE MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO INCREASE...ALLOWING FOR
THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ON THURSDAY...WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITIES AND WIDESPREAD 6 HAINES. ALL AREAS BELOW SIGNIFICANT
SNOWPACK ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT MAY SLIP INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS BUT SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF ZONE 104.

THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL RETURN AND BE STRONGER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LESS WIND IS EXPECTED...THOUGH STILL BREEZY
IN SPOTS. VERY LOW DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NM...THUS...SINGLE SEVERAL HOURS OF DIGIT HUMIDITIES WILL STILL BE
LIKELY FRIDAY. BUT FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PUSH WESTWARD
THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...EASING THE LOW
HUMIDITY SITUATION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE
MARGINALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOIST RETURN FLOW TRIES TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH...BUT DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS LOOK
TO RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
SURFACE BACK DOOR FRONT MAY BRING A LITTLE COOLING TUESDAY...WITH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WITH SFC LOW OVR NE NM AT 05Z. WEAK
SFC WIND SHIFT EXPECTED BY 31/08Z NE NM AS SFC LOW SAGS SWD. ISOLD
MOSTLY DRY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A SHORT LIVED TS WITH ERRATIC
WINDS GUSTING TO 40KT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THRU 31/08Z. VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  78  42  76  37 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  73  33  70  32 /   5   5   5   0
CUBA............................  73  37  72  36 /  10   5   0   0
GALLUP..........................  74  35  71  33 /   5   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  67  35  66  32 /  10   5   0   0
GRANTS..........................  72  34  71  33 /  10   5   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  67  37  67  36 /  10   5   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  77  43  77  43 /   5   5   0   0
CHAMA...........................  68  31  65  30 /  10   5   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  68  42  68  41 /  10   5   0   0
PECOS...........................  69  42  69  40 /  10   5   5   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  70  32  69  32 /  10   5   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  60  32  58  31 /  10   5   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  63  31  61  32 /  10   5   5   5
TAOS............................  70  34  69  33 /  10   5   5   0
MORA............................  68  39  68  38 /  10   5   5   5
ESPANOLA........................  75  43  75  41 /  10   5   0   0
SANTA FE........................  70  42  70  40 /  10   5   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  74  40  74  39 /  10   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  75  47  75  45 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  78  49  78  46 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  78  46  78  46 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  79  46  79  46 /   5   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  80  46  81  45 /   5   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  78  48  78  46 /   5   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  79  48  82  47 /   5   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  71  44  71  42 /  10   5   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  76  44  75  42 /  10   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  72  39  71  40 /  10   5   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  71  42  70  41 /  10   5   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  71  43  72  43 /  10   5   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  75  46  78  47 /   5   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  72  45  74  47 /  10  10   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  71  42  73  39 /  10   5   0   5
RATON...........................  77  37  78  36 /  10   5   0   5
SPRINGER........................  76  38  76  39 /  10   5   0   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  73  40  75  39 /  10   5   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  81  48  84  41 /   5   5   0   5
ROY.............................  78  44  79  42 /   5   5   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  83  47  84  47 /   5   5   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  80  47  80  47 /   5   5   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  85  47  88  47 /   5   5   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  82  48  84  48 /  10   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  83  49  84  49 /  10   5   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  83  49  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  84  49  87  50 /   5   5   0   0
PICACHO.........................  77  48  79  51 /  10   5   0   0
ELK.............................  69  47  73  50 /  20   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ105.

&&

$$

43





000
FXUS65 KABQ 310932
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WARM AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS STILL HOLDING FIRM THROUGH
THURSDAY FOLLOWED FINALLY BY A RETURN TO NEARER NORMAL
TEMPERATURES....AT LEAST FOR 2 TO 3 DAYS. BUT A MAJOR UPTICK IN
WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL PRECEDE THE COOLDOWN. SOME AREAS
OF BLOWING DUST AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL ALSO
MARK THIS WINDY PERIOD. BEFORE THE WINDS THOUGH ISOLATED AFTERNOON
AND EARLY EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...THE MAJORITY BEING
DRY...WILL REPEAT MAINLY OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS TODAY
AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EASES ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CERTAINLY SOME VARIABILITY IN WX CONDITIONS UPCOMING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...BUT MOST OF THAT WILL BE IN THE WIND AND TEMP
DEPARTMENT. ISOLATED...MORE DRY THAN WET...SHOWERS AND STORMS
AGAIN IN THE FCST FOR MAINLY THIS AFTN AND EARLY EVE PRIMARILY
ACROSS AND JUST EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. STRONGER WINDS WED AND
ESPECIALLY THU AS WINDS ALOFT AND TIGHTENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT
BOTH CONTRIBUTE TO WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE SFC. LATTER TO BE MORE
WIDESPREAD THU THAN TODAY AND CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS LOOK
PRETTY LIKELY FOR SEVERAL HOURS WED ALONG AND SOME DISTANCE EITHER
SIDE OF INTERSTATE 25 CORRIDOR MAINLY E FROM CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND
ALSO FOR A LITTLE LESS TIME WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. THIS TO
EXPAND TO MOST OF FCST AREA THU. MORE DETAILS IN FIRE WX
DISCUSSION. ALSO WILL LIKELY SE AT LEAST SOME PERIODIC BLOWING
DUST THU AFTN AND TO LESSER DEGREE WED AFTN. DID ADD SOME LOW
GRADE POPS TO NORTHERN MTNS...MINUS THE JEMEZ...WED...BUT AGAIN
SHOULD BE DRY FOR THE MOST PART.

WITH THE WESTERLIES ALOFT BACKING DOWN A BIT LATE THU NIGHT AND FRI
A QUASI BACK DOOR FRONTAL PUSH MAY INTRODUCE JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS FOR
THIS PERIOD...BUT KEEPING ONLY THE INHERITED LOW POPS FOR NOW. A
PACIFIC FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH MUCH OF THE REST OF THE STATE FROM
THE NW...BUT LIKELY WILL BE DRY. STILL WE SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO
CLOSER TO NORMALS TEMPS FOR 2 OR 3 DAYS. MOST EXTENDED FCST MODELS
ARE NOW PREDICTABLY STAYING DRY...OR ALMOST ENTIRELY SO...FOR THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WINDS ALSO MAY RAMP UP SOME.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...

MAIN STORY CONTINUES TO BE THE TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL SPRING
PATTERN...COMPLETE WITH STRONG WINDS...LOW HUMIDITIES AND CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT ACROSS
THE WEST. CENTRAL NM MAY SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS
AS WELL. CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WIDESPREAD...WITH
ALL AREAS BELOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK REACHING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALONG THE AZ AND UT BORDER WILL MOVE EAST TODAY
ACROSS THE STATE WHILE A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SLIDES INTO THE
NORTHEAST. THERE WILL BE ISOLATED MIXED WET AND DRY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND POINTS JUST EASTWARD DUE
TO THE STEERING FLOW. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL BE A FEW
DEGREES WARMER. ALL AREAS WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL. NO VENTILATION
ISSUES TODAY. AN ISOLATED SHOWER MAY LINGER ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF
THE SANGRES OR OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING. RH
RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE MOSTLY FAIR.

MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST WEDNESDAY. STRONG MIXING
WILL ALLOW MODERATE MID LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE.
MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS ARE NOT EXCESSIVELY STRONG...25 TO 35 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...A DEEP SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL INCREASE
THE SURFACE GRADIENT. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NM
FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTN AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 15
PERCENT. STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT WILL ACTUALLY BE OVER THE WESTERN
HIGH TERRAIN WEDNESDAY. IT IS LOOKING LIKE A FEW HOURS OF WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR ACROSS ZONE 105 SO WILL ISSUE A FIRE
WEATHER WATCH FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING. CONFIDENCE
HIGH ENOUGH TO UPGRADE TO A RED FLAG WARNING FOR THE EASTERN ZONES
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HAINES INDICES OF MOSTLY FIVE
ARE EXPECTED WITH EXCELLENT VENT RATES AREAWIDE WEDNESDAY.

A WIDESPREAD AND SIGNIFICANT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY ON THURSDAY.
THE MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS A TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO INCREASE...ALLOWING FOR
THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION ON THURSDAY...WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF SINGLE DIGIT
HUMIDITIES AND WIDESPREAD 6 HAINES. ALL AREAS BELOW SIGNIFICANT
SNOWPACK ARE EXPECTED TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT MAY SLIP INTO THE FAR NORTHEAST
PLAINS BUT SHOULD QUICKLY MOVE BACK NORTH BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ALLOWING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF ZONE 104.

THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL RETURN AND BE STRONGER FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL LEVELS
FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND LESS WIND IS EXPECTED...THOUGH STILL BREEZY
IN SPOTS. VERY LOW DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
NM...THUS...SINGLE SEVERAL HOURS OF DIGIT HUMIDITIES WILL STILL BE
LIKELY FRIDAY. BUT FRIDAY NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PUSH WESTWARD
THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...EASING THE LOW
HUMIDITY SITUATION. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE
MARGINALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT AS MOIST RETURN FLOW TRIES TO
MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH...BUT DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS LOOK
TO RETURN SUNDAY AND MONDAY. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
SURFACE BACK DOOR FRONT MAY BRING A LITTLE COOLING TUESDAY...WITH AN
ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTH.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WITH SFC LOW OVR NE NM AT 05Z. WEAK
SFC WIND SHIFT EXPECTED BY 31/08Z NE NM AS SFC LOW SAGS SWD. ISOLD
MOSTLY DRY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A SHORT LIVED TS WITH ERRATIC
WINDS GUSTING TO 40KT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THRU 31/08Z. VFR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  78  42  76  37 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  73  33  70  32 /   5   5   5   0
CUBA............................  73  37  72  36 /  10   5   0   0
GALLUP..........................  74  35  71  33 /   5   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  67  35  66  32 /  10   5   0   0
GRANTS..........................  72  34  71  33 /  10   5   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  67  37  67  36 /  10   5   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  77  43  77  43 /   5   5   0   0
CHAMA...........................  68  31  65  30 /  10   5   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  68  42  68  41 /  10   5   0   0
PECOS...........................  69  42  69  40 /  10   5   5   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  70  32  69  32 /  10   5   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  60  32  58  31 /  10   5   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  63  31  61  32 /  10   5   5   5
TAOS............................  70  34  69  33 /  10   5   5   0
MORA............................  68  39  68  38 /  10   5   5   5
ESPANOLA........................  75  43  75  41 /  10   5   0   0
SANTA FE........................  70  42  70  40 /  10   5   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  74  40  74  39 /  10   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  75  47  75  45 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  78  49  78  46 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  78  46  78  46 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  79  46  79  46 /   5   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  80  46  81  45 /   5   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  78  48  78  46 /   5   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  79  48  82  47 /   5   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  71  44  71  42 /  10   5   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  76  44  75  42 /  10   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  72  39  71  40 /  10   5   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  71  42  70  41 /  10   5   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  71  43  72  43 /  10   5   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  75  46  78  47 /   5   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  72  45  74  47 /  10  10   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  71  42  73  39 /  10   5   0   5
RATON...........................  77  37  78  36 /  10   5   0   5
SPRINGER........................  76  38  76  39 /  10   5   0   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  73  40  75  39 /  10   5   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  81  48  84  41 /   5   5   0   5
ROY.............................  78  44  79  42 /   5   5   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  83  47  84  47 /   5   5   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  80  47  80  47 /   5   5   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  85  47  88  47 /   5   5   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  82  48  84  48 /  10   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  83  49  84  49 /  10   5   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  83  49  84  49 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  84  49  87  50 /   5   5   0   0
PICACHO.........................  77  48  79  51 /  10   5   0   0
ELK.............................  69  47  73  50 /  20   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ105.

&&

$$

43






000
FXUS65 KABQ 310537
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1137 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WITH SFC LOW OVR NE NM AT 05Z. WEAK
SFC WIND SHIFT EXPECTED BY 31/08Z NE NM AS SFC LOW SAGS SWD. ISOLD
MOSTLY DRY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A SHORT LIVED TS WITH ERRATIC
WINDS GUSTING TO 40KT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THRU 31/08Z. VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST
MAINLY OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FINISHES CROSSING THE STATE. SOME CELLS WILL PRODUCE
LITTLE OR NO RAIN. DRY AND WINDIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE JET STREAM WILL CROSS NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY WITH
SURFACE GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY CROSSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DESPITE SOME ELEVATED
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 40 DEGREES IN MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH SHOULD MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS BY TUESDAY FOR PRECIPITATION TO FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY INDUCING THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER WINDS
OVER NM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH OF NM UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A BACK DOOR FRONTAL PUSH MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN
COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THERE
SHOULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

WITH THE LATEST RUN...THE GFS AND ECMWF INCHED CLOSER TOGETHER ON
PRECIP CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
THE NW US COAST IS FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO INDUCE A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. THIS
MOISTURE COULD BE TAPPED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAJA INDUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS A HINT IN THE MODELS THAT SOME FAIRLY SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT EAST
SLOPES AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...

MAIN STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL
SPRINGTIME PATTERN...COMPLETE WITH STRONG WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SPOTTY AREAS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM MAY SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS
WELL. CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WIDESPREAD...WITH
NEARLY ALL AREAS SEEING SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HIGH BASED...LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL AS
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG
LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V FORECAST SOUNDINDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLOWLY CROSSES THE
STATE. STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED MAINLY DRY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AND POINTS JUST EASTWARD DUE TO STEERING FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

BY WEDNESDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...
ELIMINATING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  STRONG MIXING WILL ALLOW MODEST
MID LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS ARE
NOT EXCESSIVELY STRONG...NEAR 25-30KTS. HOWEVER...A DEEP SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL INCREASE THE SURFACE GRADIENT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NM FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTN
AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. HAINES INDICES OF 5 OR
6 ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THOUGH FAIR RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...RH RECOVERIES WILL FALL FURTHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY CENTRAL AREAS SEEING POOR RECOVERIES.

WEDNESDAY WILL SET UP AN EVEN BIGGER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY ON
THURSDAY. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS A TROUGH SLIDES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO INCREASE...ALLOWING
FOR THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON THURSDAY...WITH SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
AND WIDESPREAD 6 HAINES. ALL AREAS BELOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR NE NM...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW
AND ATTENDANT WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SETS UP. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT IF THE FRONT SQUEAKS IN IN THE MORNING...IT WILL BE
PUSHED BACK OUT IN THE AFTN.

THE FRONT WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND LESS WIND IS EXPECTED...THOUGH STILL BREEZY IN SPOTS. VERY LOW
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM...THUS...SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. BUT FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...EASING THE LOW HUMIDITY SITUATION. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE MARGINALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS MOIST RETURN FLOW TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH...BUT DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 310537
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1137 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WITH SFC LOW OVR NE NM AT 05Z. WEAK
SFC WIND SHIFT EXPECTED BY 31/08Z NE NM AS SFC LOW SAGS SWD. ISOLD
MOSTLY DRY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A SHORT LIVED TS WITH ERRATIC
WINDS GUSTING TO 40KT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THRU 31/08Z. VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST
MAINLY OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FINISHES CROSSING THE STATE. SOME CELLS WILL PRODUCE
LITTLE OR NO RAIN. DRY AND WINDIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE JET STREAM WILL CROSS NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY WITH
SURFACE GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY CROSSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DESPITE SOME ELEVATED
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 40 DEGREES IN MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH SHOULD MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS BY TUESDAY FOR PRECIPITATION TO FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY INDUCING THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER WINDS
OVER NM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH OF NM UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A BACK DOOR FRONTAL PUSH MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN
COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THERE
SHOULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

WITH THE LATEST RUN...THE GFS AND ECMWF INCHED CLOSER TOGETHER ON
PRECIP CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
THE NW US COAST IS FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO INDUCE A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. THIS
MOISTURE COULD BE TAPPED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAJA INDUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS A HINT IN THE MODELS THAT SOME FAIRLY SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT EAST
SLOPES AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...

MAIN STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL
SPRINGTIME PATTERN...COMPLETE WITH STRONG WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SPOTTY AREAS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM MAY SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS
WELL. CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WIDESPREAD...WITH
NEARLY ALL AREAS SEEING SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HIGH BASED...LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL AS
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG
LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V FORECAST SOUNDINDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLOWLY CROSSES THE
STATE. STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED MAINLY DRY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AND POINTS JUST EASTWARD DUE TO STEERING FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

BY WEDNESDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...
ELIMINATING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  STRONG MIXING WILL ALLOW MODEST
MID LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS ARE
NOT EXCESSIVELY STRONG...NEAR 25-30KTS. HOWEVER...A DEEP SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL INCREASE THE SURFACE GRADIENT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NM FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTN
AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. HAINES INDICES OF 5 OR
6 ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THOUGH FAIR RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...RH RECOVERIES WILL FALL FURTHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY CENTRAL AREAS SEEING POOR RECOVERIES.

WEDNESDAY WILL SET UP AN EVEN BIGGER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY ON
THURSDAY. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS A TROUGH SLIDES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO INCREASE...ALLOWING
FOR THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON THURSDAY...WITH SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
AND WIDESPREAD 6 HAINES. ALL AREAS BELOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR NE NM...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW
AND ATTENDANT WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SETS UP. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT IF THE FRONT SQUEAKS IN IN THE MORNING...IT WILL BE
PUSHED BACK OUT IN THE AFTN.

THE FRONT WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND LESS WIND IS EXPECTED...THOUGH STILL BREEZY IN SPOTS. VERY LOW
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM...THUS...SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. BUT FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...EASING THE LOW HUMIDITY SITUATION. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE MARGINALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS MOIST RETURN FLOW TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH...BUT DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 310537
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1137 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WITH SFC LOW OVR NE NM AT 05Z. WEAK
SFC WIND SHIFT EXPECTED BY 31/08Z NE NM AS SFC LOW SAGS SWD. ISOLD
MOSTLY DRY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A SHORT LIVED TS WITH ERRATIC
WINDS GUSTING TO 40KT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THRU 31/08Z. VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST
MAINLY OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FINISHES CROSSING THE STATE. SOME CELLS WILL PRODUCE
LITTLE OR NO RAIN. DRY AND WINDIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE JET STREAM WILL CROSS NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY WITH
SURFACE GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY CROSSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DESPITE SOME ELEVATED
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 40 DEGREES IN MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH SHOULD MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS BY TUESDAY FOR PRECIPITATION TO FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY INDUCING THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER WINDS
OVER NM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH OF NM UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A BACK DOOR FRONTAL PUSH MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN
COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THERE
SHOULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

WITH THE LATEST RUN...THE GFS AND ECMWF INCHED CLOSER TOGETHER ON
PRECIP CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
THE NW US COAST IS FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO INDUCE A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. THIS
MOISTURE COULD BE TAPPED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAJA INDUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS A HINT IN THE MODELS THAT SOME FAIRLY SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT EAST
SLOPES AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...

MAIN STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL
SPRINGTIME PATTERN...COMPLETE WITH STRONG WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SPOTTY AREAS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM MAY SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS
WELL. CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WIDESPREAD...WITH
NEARLY ALL AREAS SEEING SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HIGH BASED...LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL AS
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG
LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V FORECAST SOUNDINDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLOWLY CROSSES THE
STATE. STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED MAINLY DRY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AND POINTS JUST EASTWARD DUE TO STEERING FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

BY WEDNESDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...
ELIMINATING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  STRONG MIXING WILL ALLOW MODEST
MID LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS ARE
NOT EXCESSIVELY STRONG...NEAR 25-30KTS. HOWEVER...A DEEP SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL INCREASE THE SURFACE GRADIENT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NM FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTN
AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. HAINES INDICES OF 5 OR
6 ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THOUGH FAIR RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...RH RECOVERIES WILL FALL FURTHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY CENTRAL AREAS SEEING POOR RECOVERIES.

WEDNESDAY WILL SET UP AN EVEN BIGGER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY ON
THURSDAY. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS A TROUGH SLIDES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO INCREASE...ALLOWING
FOR THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON THURSDAY...WITH SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
AND WIDESPREAD 6 HAINES. ALL AREAS BELOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR NE NM...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW
AND ATTENDANT WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SETS UP. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT IF THE FRONT SQUEAKS IN IN THE MORNING...IT WILL BE
PUSHED BACK OUT IN THE AFTN.

THE FRONT WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND LESS WIND IS EXPECTED...THOUGH STILL BREEZY IN SPOTS. VERY LOW
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM...THUS...SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. BUT FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...EASING THE LOW HUMIDITY SITUATION. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE MARGINALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS MOIST RETURN FLOW TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH...BUT DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 310537
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1137 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WITH SFC LOW OVR NE NM AT 05Z. WEAK
SFC WIND SHIFT EXPECTED BY 31/08Z NE NM AS SFC LOW SAGS SWD. ISOLD
MOSTLY DRY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A SHORT LIVED TS WITH ERRATIC
WINDS GUSTING TO 40KT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THRU 31/08Z. VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST
MAINLY OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FINISHES CROSSING THE STATE. SOME CELLS WILL PRODUCE
LITTLE OR NO RAIN. DRY AND WINDIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE JET STREAM WILL CROSS NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY WITH
SURFACE GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY CROSSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DESPITE SOME ELEVATED
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 40 DEGREES IN MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH SHOULD MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS BY TUESDAY FOR PRECIPITATION TO FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY INDUCING THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER WINDS
OVER NM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH OF NM UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A BACK DOOR FRONTAL PUSH MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN
COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THERE
SHOULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

WITH THE LATEST RUN...THE GFS AND ECMWF INCHED CLOSER TOGETHER ON
PRECIP CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
THE NW US COAST IS FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO INDUCE A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. THIS
MOISTURE COULD BE TAPPED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAJA INDUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS A HINT IN THE MODELS THAT SOME FAIRLY SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT EAST
SLOPES AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...

MAIN STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL
SPRINGTIME PATTERN...COMPLETE WITH STRONG WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SPOTTY AREAS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM MAY SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS
WELL. CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WIDESPREAD...WITH
NEARLY ALL AREAS SEEING SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HIGH BASED...LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL AS
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG
LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V FORECAST SOUNDINDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLOWLY CROSSES THE
STATE. STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED MAINLY DRY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AND POINTS JUST EASTWARD DUE TO STEERING FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

BY WEDNESDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...
ELIMINATING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  STRONG MIXING WILL ALLOW MODEST
MID LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS ARE
NOT EXCESSIVELY STRONG...NEAR 25-30KTS. HOWEVER...A DEEP SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL INCREASE THE SURFACE GRADIENT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NM FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTN
AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. HAINES INDICES OF 5 OR
6 ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THOUGH FAIR RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...RH RECOVERIES WILL FALL FURTHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY CENTRAL AREAS SEEING POOR RECOVERIES.

WEDNESDAY WILL SET UP AN EVEN BIGGER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY ON
THURSDAY. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS A TROUGH SLIDES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO INCREASE...ALLOWING
FOR THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON THURSDAY...WITH SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
AND WIDESPREAD 6 HAINES. ALL AREAS BELOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR NE NM...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW
AND ATTENDANT WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SETS UP. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT IF THE FRONT SQUEAKS IN IN THE MORNING...IT WILL BE
PUSHED BACK OUT IN THE AFTN.

THE FRONT WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND LESS WIND IS EXPECTED...THOUGH STILL BREEZY IN SPOTS. VERY LOW
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM...THUS...SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. BUT FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...EASING THE LOW HUMIDITY SITUATION. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE MARGINALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS MOIST RETURN FLOW TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH...BUT DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 302319
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
519 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WITH SFC LOW OVR SE CO AND NE NM AT
23Z. WEAK SFC WIND SHIFT EXPECTED BY 31/06Z NE NM AS SFC LOW SAGS
SWD. WDLY SCT MOSTLY DRY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLD SHORT LIVED
TS WITH ERRATIC WINDS GUSTING TO 40KT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EWD
UNTIL AROUND 31/03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST
MAINLY OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FINISHES CROSSING THE STATE. SOME CELLS WILL PRODUCE
LITTLE OR NO RAIN. DRY AND WINDIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE JET STREAM WILL CROSS NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY WITH
SURFACE GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY CROSSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DESPITE SOME ELEVATED
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 40 DEGREES IN MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH SHOULD MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS BY TUESDAY FOR PRECIPITATION TO FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY INDUCING THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER WINDS
OVER NM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH OF NM UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A BACK DOOR FRONTAL PUSH MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN
COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THERE
SHOULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

WITH THE LATEST RUN...THE GFS AND ECMWF INCHED CLOSER TOGETHER ON
PRECIP CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
THE NW US COAST IS FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO INDUCE A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. THIS
MOISTURE COULD BE TAPPED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAJA INDUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS A HINT IN THE MODELS THAT SOME FAIRLY SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT EAST
SLOPES AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...

MAIN STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL
SPRINGTIME PATTERN...COMPLETE WITH STRONG WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SPOTTY AREAS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM MAY SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS
WELL. CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WIDESPREAD...WITH
NEARLY ALL AREAS SEEING SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HIGH BASED...LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL AS
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG
LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V FORECAST SOUNDINDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLOWLY CROSSES THE
STATE. STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED MAINLY DRY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AND POINTS JUST EASTWARD DUE TO STEERING FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

BY WEDNESDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...
ELIMINATING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  STRONG MIXING WILL ALLOW MODEST
MID LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS ARE
NOT EXCESSIVELY STRONG...NEAR 25-30KTS. HOWEVER...A DEEP SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL INCREASE THE SURFACE GRADIENT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NM FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTN
AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. HAINES INDICES OF 5 OR
6 ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THOUGH FAIR RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...RH RECOVERIES WILL FALL FURTHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY CENTRAL AREAS SEEING POOR RECOVERIES.

WEDNESDAY WILL SET UP AN EVEN BIGGER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY ON
THURSDAY. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS A TROUGH SLIDES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO INCREASE...ALLOWING
FOR THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON THURSDAY...WITH SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
AND WIDESPREAD 6 HAINES. ALL AREAS BELOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR NE NM...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW
AND ATTENDANT WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SETS UP. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT IF THE FRONT SQUEAKS IN IN THE MORNING...IT WILL BE
PUSHED BACK OUT IN THE AFTN.

THE FRONT WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND LESS WIND IS EXPECTED...THOUGH STILL BREEZY IN SPOTS. VERY LOW
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM...THUS...SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. BUT FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...EASING THE LOW HUMIDITY SITUATION. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE MARGINALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS MOIST RETURN FLOW TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH...BUT DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 302319
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
519 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WITH SFC LOW OVR SE CO AND NE NM AT
23Z. WEAK SFC WIND SHIFT EXPECTED BY 31/06Z NE NM AS SFC LOW SAGS
SWD. WDLY SCT MOSTLY DRY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLD SHORT LIVED
TS WITH ERRATIC WINDS GUSTING TO 40KT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EWD
UNTIL AROUND 31/03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST
MAINLY OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FINISHES CROSSING THE STATE. SOME CELLS WILL PRODUCE
LITTLE OR NO RAIN. DRY AND WINDIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE JET STREAM WILL CROSS NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY WITH
SURFACE GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY CROSSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DESPITE SOME ELEVATED
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 40 DEGREES IN MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH SHOULD MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS BY TUESDAY FOR PRECIPITATION TO FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY INDUCING THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER WINDS
OVER NM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH OF NM UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A BACK DOOR FRONTAL PUSH MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN
COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THERE
SHOULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

WITH THE LATEST RUN...THE GFS AND ECMWF INCHED CLOSER TOGETHER ON
PRECIP CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
THE NW US COAST IS FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO INDUCE A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. THIS
MOISTURE COULD BE TAPPED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAJA INDUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS A HINT IN THE MODELS THAT SOME FAIRLY SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT EAST
SLOPES AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...

MAIN STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL
SPRINGTIME PATTERN...COMPLETE WITH STRONG WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SPOTTY AREAS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM MAY SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS
WELL. CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WIDESPREAD...WITH
NEARLY ALL AREAS SEEING SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HIGH BASED...LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL AS
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG
LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V FORECAST SOUNDINDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLOWLY CROSSES THE
STATE. STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED MAINLY DRY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AND POINTS JUST EASTWARD DUE TO STEERING FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

BY WEDNESDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...
ELIMINATING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  STRONG MIXING WILL ALLOW MODEST
MID LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS ARE
NOT EXCESSIVELY STRONG...NEAR 25-30KTS. HOWEVER...A DEEP SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL INCREASE THE SURFACE GRADIENT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NM FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTN
AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. HAINES INDICES OF 5 OR
6 ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THOUGH FAIR RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...RH RECOVERIES WILL FALL FURTHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY CENTRAL AREAS SEEING POOR RECOVERIES.

WEDNESDAY WILL SET UP AN EVEN BIGGER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY ON
THURSDAY. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS A TROUGH SLIDES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO INCREASE...ALLOWING
FOR THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON THURSDAY...WITH SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
AND WIDESPREAD 6 HAINES. ALL AREAS BELOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR NE NM...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW
AND ATTENDANT WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SETS UP. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT IF THE FRONT SQUEAKS IN IN THE MORNING...IT WILL BE
PUSHED BACK OUT IN THE AFTN.

THE FRONT WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND LESS WIND IS EXPECTED...THOUGH STILL BREEZY IN SPOTS. VERY LOW
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM...THUS...SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. BUT FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...EASING THE LOW HUMIDITY SITUATION. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE MARGINALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS MOIST RETURN FLOW TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH...BUT DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 302319
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
519 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WITH SFC LOW OVR SE CO AND NE NM AT
23Z. WEAK SFC WIND SHIFT EXPECTED BY 31/06Z NE NM AS SFC LOW SAGS
SWD. WDLY SCT MOSTLY DRY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLD SHORT LIVED
TS WITH ERRATIC WINDS GUSTING TO 40KT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EWD
UNTIL AROUND 31/03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST
MAINLY OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FINISHES CROSSING THE STATE. SOME CELLS WILL PRODUCE
LITTLE OR NO RAIN. DRY AND WINDIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE JET STREAM WILL CROSS NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY WITH
SURFACE GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY CROSSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DESPITE SOME ELEVATED
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 40 DEGREES IN MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH SHOULD MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS BY TUESDAY FOR PRECIPITATION TO FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY INDUCING THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER WINDS
OVER NM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH OF NM UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A BACK DOOR FRONTAL PUSH MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN
COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THERE
SHOULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

WITH THE LATEST RUN...THE GFS AND ECMWF INCHED CLOSER TOGETHER ON
PRECIP CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
THE NW US COAST IS FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO INDUCE A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. THIS
MOISTURE COULD BE TAPPED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAJA INDUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS A HINT IN THE MODELS THAT SOME FAIRLY SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT EAST
SLOPES AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...

MAIN STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL
SPRINGTIME PATTERN...COMPLETE WITH STRONG WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SPOTTY AREAS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM MAY SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS
WELL. CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WIDESPREAD...WITH
NEARLY ALL AREAS SEEING SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HIGH BASED...LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL AS
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG
LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V FORECAST SOUNDINDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLOWLY CROSSES THE
STATE. STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED MAINLY DRY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AND POINTS JUST EASTWARD DUE TO STEERING FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

BY WEDNESDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...
ELIMINATING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  STRONG MIXING WILL ALLOW MODEST
MID LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS ARE
NOT EXCESSIVELY STRONG...NEAR 25-30KTS. HOWEVER...A DEEP SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL INCREASE THE SURFACE GRADIENT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NM FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTN
AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. HAINES INDICES OF 5 OR
6 ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THOUGH FAIR RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...RH RECOVERIES WILL FALL FURTHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY CENTRAL AREAS SEEING POOR RECOVERIES.

WEDNESDAY WILL SET UP AN EVEN BIGGER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY ON
THURSDAY. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS A TROUGH SLIDES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO INCREASE...ALLOWING
FOR THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON THURSDAY...WITH SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
AND WIDESPREAD 6 HAINES. ALL AREAS BELOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR NE NM...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW
AND ATTENDANT WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SETS UP. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT IF THE FRONT SQUEAKS IN IN THE MORNING...IT WILL BE
PUSHED BACK OUT IN THE AFTN.

THE FRONT WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND LESS WIND IS EXPECTED...THOUGH STILL BREEZY IN SPOTS. VERY LOW
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM...THUS...SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. BUT FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...EASING THE LOW HUMIDITY SITUATION. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE MARGINALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS MOIST RETURN FLOW TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH...BUT DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 302319
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
519 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT WITH SFC LOW OVR SE CO AND NE NM AT
23Z. WEAK SFC WIND SHIFT EXPECTED BY 31/06Z NE NM AS SFC LOW SAGS
SWD. WDLY SCT MOSTLY DRY SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLD SHORT LIVED
TS WITH ERRATIC WINDS GUSTING TO 40KT WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT EWD
UNTIL AROUND 31/03Z BEFORE DIMINISHING. VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST
MAINLY OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FINISHES CROSSING THE STATE. SOME CELLS WILL PRODUCE
LITTLE OR NO RAIN. DRY AND WINDIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE JET STREAM WILL CROSS NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY WITH
SURFACE GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY CROSSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DESPITE SOME ELEVATED
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 40 DEGREES IN MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH SHOULD MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS BY TUESDAY FOR PRECIPITATION TO FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY INDUCING THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER WINDS
OVER NM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH OF NM UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A BACK DOOR FRONTAL PUSH MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN
COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THERE
SHOULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

WITH THE LATEST RUN...THE GFS AND ECMWF INCHED CLOSER TOGETHER ON
PRECIP CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
THE NW US COAST IS FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO INDUCE A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. THIS
MOISTURE COULD BE TAPPED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAJA INDUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS A HINT IN THE MODELS THAT SOME FAIRLY SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT EAST
SLOPES AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...

MAIN STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL
SPRINGTIME PATTERN...COMPLETE WITH STRONG WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SPOTTY AREAS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM MAY SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS
WELL. CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WIDESPREAD...WITH
NEARLY ALL AREAS SEEING SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HIGH BASED...LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL AS
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG
LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V FORECAST SOUNDINDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLOWLY CROSSES THE
STATE. STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED MAINLY DRY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AND POINTS JUST EASTWARD DUE TO STEERING FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

BY WEDNESDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...
ELIMINATING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  STRONG MIXING WILL ALLOW MODEST
MID LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS ARE
NOT EXCESSIVELY STRONG...NEAR 25-30KTS. HOWEVER...A DEEP SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL INCREASE THE SURFACE GRADIENT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NM FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTN
AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. HAINES INDICES OF 5 OR
6 ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THOUGH FAIR RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...RH RECOVERIES WILL FALL FURTHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY CENTRAL AREAS SEEING POOR RECOVERIES.

WEDNESDAY WILL SET UP AN EVEN BIGGER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY ON
THURSDAY. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS A TROUGH SLIDES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO INCREASE...ALLOWING
FOR THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON THURSDAY...WITH SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
AND WIDESPREAD 6 HAINES. ALL AREAS BELOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR NE NM...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW
AND ATTENDANT WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SETS UP. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT IF THE FRONT SQUEAKS IN IN THE MORNING...IT WILL BE
PUSHED BACK OUT IN THE AFTN.

THE FRONT WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND LESS WIND IS EXPECTED...THOUGH STILL BREEZY IN SPOTS. VERY LOW
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM...THUS...SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. BUT FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...EASING THE LOW HUMIDITY SITUATION. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE MARGINALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS MOIST RETURN FLOW TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH...BUT DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 302130
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST
MAINLY OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FINISHES CROSSING THE STATE. SOME CELLS WILL PRODUCE
LITTLE OR NO RAIN. DRY AND WINDIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE JET STREAM WILL CROSS NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY WITH
SURFACE GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY CROSSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DESPITE SOME ELEVATED
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 40 DEGREES IN MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH SHOULD MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS BY TUESDAY FOR PRECIPITATION TO FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY INDUCING THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER WINDS
OVER NM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH OF NM UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A BACK DOOR FRONTAL PUSH MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN
COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THERE
SHOULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

WITH THE LATEST RUN...THE GFS AND ECMWF INCHED CLOSER TOGETHER ON
PRECIP CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
THE NW US COAST IS FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO INDUCE A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. THIS
MOISTURE COULD BE TAPPED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAJA INDUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS A HINT IN THE MODELS THAT SOME FAIRLY SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT EAST
SLOPES AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...

MAIN STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL
SPRINGTIME PATTERN...COMPLETE WITH STRONG WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SPOTTY AREAS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM MAY SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS
WELL. CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WIDESPREAD...WITH
NEARLY ALL AREAS SEEING SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HIGH BASED...LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL AS
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG
LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V FORECAST SOUNDINDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLOWLY CROSSES THE
STATE. STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED MAINLY DRY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AND POINTS JUST EASTWARD DUE TO STEERING FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

BY WEDNESDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...
ELIMINATING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  STRONG MIXING WILL ALLOW MODEST
MID LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS ARE
NOT EXCESSIVELY STRONG...NEAR 25-30KTS. HOWEVER...A DEEP SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL INCREASE THE SURFACE GRADIENT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NM FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTN
AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. HAINES INDICES OF 5 OR
6 ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THOUGH FAIR RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...RH RECOVERIES WILL FALL FURTHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY CENTRAL AREAS SEEING POOR RECOVERIES.

WEDNESDAY WILL SET UP AN EVEN BIGGER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY ON
THURSDAY. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS A TROUGH SLIDES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO INCREASE...ALLOWING
FOR THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON THURSDAY...WITH SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
AND WIDESPREAD 6 HAINES. ALL AREAS BELOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR NE NM...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW
AND ATTENDANT WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SETS UP. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT IF THE FRONT SQUEAKS IN IN THE MORNING...IT WILL BE
PUSHED BACK OUT IN THE AFTN.

THE FRONT WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND LESS WIND IS EXPECTED...THOUGH STILL BREEZY IN SPOTS. VERY LOW
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM...THUS...SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. BUT FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...EASING THE LOW HUMIDITY SITUATION. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE MARGINALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS MOIST RETURN FLOW TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH...BUT DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY TS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
THE HIGH TERRAIN AFTER 20Z AND CONTINUE THRU APPROXIMATELY SUNSET.
VIRGA/DRY MICROBURSTS MAY LEAD TO GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.
HI RES MODELS SHOWING CHANCES OF A FEW SHRA AROUND KROW...WITH
LITTLE ELSEWHERE. ADDED VCSH FOR KROW THIS AFTN...BUT ALSO KEPT
VCSH MENTION AT KSAF AND KLVS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

34

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  39  78  41  77 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  31  73  32  70 /   5   5   5   5
CUBA............................  37  73  37  72 /   5  10   5   0
GALLUP..........................  34  74  34  72 /   5   5   0   0
EL MORRO........................  35  67  36  66 /   5  10   5   0
GRANTS..........................  34  72  35  72 /   5  10   5   0
QUEMADO.........................  38  67  37  68 /   5  10   5   0
GLENWOOD........................  46  77  43  78 /  10   5   5   0
CHAMA...........................  32  68  31  66 /  10  10   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  42  68  42  69 /  10  10   5   0
PECOS...........................  41  69  42  69 /   5  10   5   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  32  70  32  69 /  10  10   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  31  60  32  58 /  20  10   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  31  63  31  62 /  10  10   5   5
TAOS............................  34  71  34  71 /   5  10   5   5
MORA............................  38  68  39  69 /  10  10   5   0
ESPANOLA........................  42  75  43  76 /   5  10   5   0
SANTA FE........................  42  68  43  69 /   5  10   5   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  40  74  41  75 /   5  10   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  47  75  46  75 /   5   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  49  78  48  78 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  47  78  47  78 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  46  79  46  79 /   0   5   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  45  80  46  81 /   0   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  47  78  48  79 /   0   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  48  79  48  82 /   5   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  44  71  44  71 /   5  10   5   0
TIJERAS.........................  44  76  44  76 /   5  10   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  39  72  39  72 /  10  10   5   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  41  71  42  71 /  10  10   5   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  44  71  43  73 /  10  10   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  47  75  46  78 /  10   5   5   0
RUIDOSO.........................  46  72  45  74 /  10  10   5   0
CAPULIN.........................  40  71  42  74 /  10  10   5   0
RATON...........................  37  77  38  79 /   5  10   5   0
SPRINGER........................  38  76  38  77 /   5  10   5   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  40  73  40  75 /  10  10   5   0
CLAYTON.........................  47  80  49  83 /   0   5   5   0
ROY.............................  42  78  44  80 /   0   5   5   0
CONCHAS.........................  47  82  48  85 /   0   5   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  46  79  47  81 /   0   5   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  47  85  48  90 /   0   5   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  48  81  49  85 /   0  10   5   0
PORTALES........................  48  81  49  84 /   0  10   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  48  82  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  49  83  49  87 /   5   5   5   0
PICACHO.........................  49  76  48  80 /   5  10   5   0
ELK.............................  48  69  47  73 /  10  20   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.

&&

$$

44






000
FXUS65 KABQ 302130
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST
MAINLY OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ON TUESDAY AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH FINISHES CROSSING THE STATE. SOME CELLS WILL PRODUCE
LITTLE OR NO RAIN. DRY AND WINDIER WEATHER IS THEN EXPECTED
THROUGH MID WEEK WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS ON WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. THE JET STREAM WILL CROSS NEW MEXICO ON THURSDAY WITH
SURFACE GUSTS FROM 40 TO 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN MANY AREAS. A COLD
FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT WILL COOL HIGH TEMPERATURES NEAR AND BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SLOWLY CROSSES THE DESERT SOUTHWEST. DESPITE SOME ELEVATED
MOISTURE WITH THE SYSTEM...SURFACE DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO EXCEED 40 DEGREES IN MANY LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS
THIS EVENING AND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE TROUGH SHOULD MAKE ENOUGH
PROGRESS BY TUESDAY FOR PRECIPITATION TO FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS AND
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.

A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL CROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ROCKIES
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY INDUCING THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER WINDS
OVER NM. PRECIPITATION SHOULD STAY NORTH OF NM UNTIL THURSDAY
NIGHT...WHEN A BACK DOOR FRONTAL PUSH MAY HAVE ENOUGH MOISTURE TO
TRIGGER SOME SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN
COLFAX AND UNION COUNTIES. THE CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THERE
SHOULD LINGER INTO FRIDAY EVENING.

WITH THE LATEST RUN...THE GFS AND ECMWF INCHED CLOSER TOGETHER ON
PRECIP CHANCES FOR SATURDAY NIGHT. A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF
THE NW US COAST IS FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO INDUCE A MOIST
SOUTHEASTERLY RETURN FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. THIS
MOISTURE COULD BE TAPPED BY A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EJECTING
NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE BAJA INDUCING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
THERE IS A HINT IN THE MODELS THAT SOME FAIRLY SPOTTY
PRECIPITATION COULD BEGIN OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND ADJACENT EAST
SLOPES AS EARLY AS SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS RETURNING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY...

MAIN STORY THIS WEEK WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO A MORE TYPICAL
SPRINGTIME PATTERN...COMPLETE WITH STRONG WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
ACROSS THE EAST ON WEDNESDAY...THOUGH SPOTTY AREAS ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL NM MAY SEE AN HOUR OR TWO OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS AS
WELL. CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WIDESPREAD...WITH
NEARLY ALL AREAS SEEING SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS.

FOR THE REST OF TODAY...HIGH BASED...LIGHT SHOWERS AND A FEW STRAY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AS WELL AS
THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED...BUT
GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE GIVEN THE STRONG
LAPSE RATES AND INVERTED-V FORECAST SOUNDINDS. LITTLE CHANGE IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE SLOWLY CROSSES THE
STATE. STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED MAINLY DRY SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OVER
THE HIGH TERRAIN AND POINTS JUST EASTWARD DUE TO STEERING FLOW.
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL ALSO BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER.

BY WEDNESDAY...MUCH DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST...
ELIMINATING PRECIPITATION CHANCES.  STRONG MIXING WILL ALLOW MODEST
MID LEVEL WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS ARE
NOT EXCESSIVELY STRONG...NEAR 25-30KTS. HOWEVER...A DEEP SURFACE LOW
OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL INCREASE THE SURFACE GRADIENT. THE
COMBINATION OF THE TWO SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NM FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE AFTN
AS MINIMUM HUMIDITIES FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT. HAINES INDICES OF 5 OR
6 ARE ALSO EXPECTED. THOUGH FAIR RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
AND TUESDAY NIGHT...RH RECOVERIES WILL FALL FURTHER WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...WITH MANY CENTRAL AREAS SEEING POOR RECOVERIES.

WEDNESDAY WILL SET UP AN EVEN BIGGER CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER DAY ON
THURSDAY. MID LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FURTHER AS A TROUGH SLIDES
INTO THE GREAT BASIN. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL ALSO INCREASE...ALLOWING
FOR THE STRONGER WINDS TO MIX TO THE SURFACE. GUSTS NEAR 50 MPH ARE
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON THURSDAY...WITH SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES
AND WIDESPREAD 6 HAINES. ALL AREAS BELOW SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK ARE
EXPECTED TO SEE SEVERAL HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS.
ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE FAR NE NM...DEPENDING ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW
AND ATTENDANT WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT SETS UP. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS THAT IF THE FRONT SQUEAKS IN IN THE MORNING...IT WILL BE
PUSHED BACK OUT IN THE AFTN.

THE FRONT WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL BACK TO NEAR OR BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR FRIDAY AFTERNOON
AND LESS WIND IS EXPECTED...THOUGH STILL BREEZY IN SPOTS. VERY LOW
DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM...THUS...SINGLE
DIGIT HUMIDITIES WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY. BUT FRIDAY
NIGHT...THE FRONT WILL PUSH WESTWARD THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN...EASING THE LOW HUMIDITY SITUATION. SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL MAY INCREASE MARGINALLY SATURDAY AND SATURDAY
NIGHT AS MOIST RETURN FLOW TRIES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTH...BUT DRY
AND BREEZY CONDITIONS LOOK TO RETURN EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY TS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
THE HIGH TERRAIN AFTER 20Z AND CONTINUE THRU APPROXIMATELY SUNSET.
VIRGA/DRY MICROBURSTS MAY LEAD TO GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.
HI RES MODELS SHOWING CHANCES OF A FEW SHRA AROUND KROW...WITH
LITTLE ELSEWHERE. ADDED VCSH FOR KROW THIS AFTN...BUT ALSO KEPT
VCSH MENTION AT KSAF AND KLVS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

34

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  39  78  41  77 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  31  73  32  70 /   5   5   5   5
CUBA............................  37  73  37  72 /   5  10   5   0
GALLUP..........................  34  74  34  72 /   5   5   0   0
EL MORRO........................  35  67  36  66 /   5  10   5   0
GRANTS..........................  34  72  35  72 /   5  10   5   0
QUEMADO.........................  38  67  37  68 /   5  10   5   0
GLENWOOD........................  46  77  43  78 /  10   5   5   0
CHAMA...........................  32  68  31  66 /  10  10   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  42  68  42  69 /  10  10   5   0
PECOS...........................  41  69  42  69 /   5  10   5   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  32  70  32  69 /  10  10   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  31  60  32  58 /  20  10   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  31  63  31  62 /  10  10   5   5
TAOS............................  34  71  34  71 /   5  10   5   5
MORA............................  38  68  39  69 /  10  10   5   0
ESPANOLA........................  42  75  43  76 /   5  10   5   0
SANTA FE........................  42  68  43  69 /   5  10   5   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  40  74  41  75 /   5  10   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  47  75  46  75 /   5   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  49  78  48  78 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  47  78  47  78 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  46  79  46  79 /   0   5   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  45  80  46  81 /   0   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  47  78  48  79 /   0   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  48  79  48  82 /   5   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  44  71  44  71 /   5  10   5   0
TIJERAS.........................  44  76  44  76 /   5  10   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  39  72  39  72 /  10  10   5   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  41  71  42  71 /  10  10   5   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  44  71  43  73 /  10  10   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  47  75  46  78 /  10   5   5   0
RUIDOSO.........................  46  72  45  74 /  10  10   5   0
CAPULIN.........................  40  71  42  74 /  10  10   5   0
RATON...........................  37  77  38  79 /   5  10   5   0
SPRINGER........................  38  76  38  77 /   5  10   5   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  40  73  40  75 /  10  10   5   0
CLAYTON.........................  47  80  49  83 /   0   5   5   0
ROY.............................  42  78  44  80 /   0   5   5   0
CONCHAS.........................  47  82  48  85 /   0   5   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  46  79  47  81 /   0   5   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  47  85  48  90 /   0   5   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  48  81  49  85 /   0  10   5   0
PORTALES........................  48  81  49  84 /   0  10   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  48  82  49  84 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  49  83  49  87 /   5   5   5   0
PICACHO.........................  49  76  48  80 /   5  10   5   0
ELK.............................  48  69  47  73 /  10  20   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-107-108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101>109.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS65 KABQ 301744 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1144 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY TS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
THE HIGH TERRAIN AFTER 20Z AND CONTINUE THRU APPROXIMATELY SUNSET.
VIRGA/DRY MICROBURSTS MAY LEAD TO GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.
HI RES MODELS SHOWING CHANCES OF A FEW SHRA AROUND KROW...WITH
LITTLE ELSEWHERE. ADDED VCSH FOR KROW THIS AFTN...BUT ALSO KEPT
VCSH MENTION AT KSAF AND KLVS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
BIGGEST WEATHER ISSUE THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY BE STRONG
WINDS AND AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PROBABLY
SOME BLOWING DUST TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AND EVEN MORE SO ON
THURSDAY. TIL THEN JUST A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY
ACROSS AND A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THE VAST MAJORITY
LIKELY TO PRODUCE NOTHING MORE THAN VERY BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...IF EVEN THAT. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMP DAY TODAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
THE RULE AS BACK DOOR FRONT FADES AWAY ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE
STATE. AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS AND ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS...PRIMARILY
OVER AND PERHAPS A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN RAIN
WILL BE SCARCE WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL PASS WELL S OF NM MON NIGHT
AND TUE...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MIDDAY
THROUGH AFTN TUE.

RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN BY WED WITH WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH
THU. ANY REMAINING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL BE
TOO FEEBLE TO ALLOW ANY PRECIP...AND FEW IF ANY BUILDUPS...TO
BREAK OUT. TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE NORM. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
ON FIRE WEATHER WED AND THU WITH FAIRLY SMALL CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS COVERAGE WED...BUT MUCH LARGER AREA THU. DETAILS IN
FIRE WX DISCUSSION. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE
FRIDAY AND DROP A COLD FRONT S AND W ACROSS A GOOD PORTION IF NOT
ALL OF THE STATE. ECMWF NOW ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS WITH
FRONTAL PROGRESSION. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY WITH VERY SLIM
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES NEAR TO JUST EAST OF PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN FRI NIGHT AND SAT AFTN. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY AND
WARMER. 43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

A MORE SPRING LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPING THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT HAS SURGED WEST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...
HOWEVER HUMIDITY INCREASES WERE ONLY MODEST. MIN HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND UP ONLY SLIGHLY TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND A FEW DRY
SHOWERS. WETTING PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO FIND AND RELEGATED TO HIGH
MTN PEAKS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE LIKELY BENEATH ANY VIRGA.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT TEMPS WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW INCREASES
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A LARGE DRY INTRUSION SHIFTS EAST.
ANY REMNANT MOISTURE WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN
IN THE FORM OF VIRGA SHOWERS WITH ENHANCED GUSTY WINDS. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OUT WEST WITH MIN RH VALUES NEAR 10 PCT
AND HAINES NEAR 5 AND 6. SOME SPOTTY NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OUT WEST AND NEAR VEGAS. RIDGETOP WINDS WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH EAST SLOPE MTN WAVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED.

RH RECOVERIES LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIR IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS...5 AND 6 HAINES...AND WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS.
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE AREA FROM CLINES TO
VEGAS EAST OVER THE HIGHLANDS AND NE PLAINS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WX CONDITIONS THUS FAR THIS SEASON WILL COME THURSDAY AS POOR
RECOVERIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WARM LOW TEMPS LEAD INTO WIDESPREAD
STRONG WINDS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FLIRTING
WITH THE NE PLAINS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL THERE.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF WITH A COOL DOWN
FRIDAY BEFORE A POTENTIAL EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY DRY AND WINDY
SOUTHWEST FLOW IMPACTS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 301744 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1144 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY TS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
THE HIGH TERRAIN AFTER 20Z AND CONTINUE THRU APPROXIMATELY SUNSET.
VIRGA/DRY MICROBURSTS MAY LEAD TO GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.
HI RES MODELS SHOWING CHANCES OF A FEW SHRA AROUND KROW...WITH
LITTLE ELSEWHERE. ADDED VCSH FOR KROW THIS AFTN...BUT ALSO KEPT
VCSH MENTION AT KSAF AND KLVS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
BIGGEST WEATHER ISSUE THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY BE STRONG
WINDS AND AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PROBABLY
SOME BLOWING DUST TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AND EVEN MORE SO ON
THURSDAY. TIL THEN JUST A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY
ACROSS AND A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THE VAST MAJORITY
LIKELY TO PRODUCE NOTHING MORE THAN VERY BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...IF EVEN THAT. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMP DAY TODAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
THE RULE AS BACK DOOR FRONT FADES AWAY ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE
STATE. AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS AND ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS...PRIMARILY
OVER AND PERHAPS A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN RAIN
WILL BE SCARCE WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL PASS WELL S OF NM MON NIGHT
AND TUE...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MIDDAY
THROUGH AFTN TUE.

RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN BY WED WITH WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH
THU. ANY REMAINING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL BE
TOO FEEBLE TO ALLOW ANY PRECIP...AND FEW IF ANY BUILDUPS...TO
BREAK OUT. TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE NORM. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
ON FIRE WEATHER WED AND THU WITH FAIRLY SMALL CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS COVERAGE WED...BUT MUCH LARGER AREA THU. DETAILS IN
FIRE WX DISCUSSION. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE
FRIDAY AND DROP A COLD FRONT S AND W ACROSS A GOOD PORTION IF NOT
ALL OF THE STATE. ECMWF NOW ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS WITH
FRONTAL PROGRESSION. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY WITH VERY SLIM
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES NEAR TO JUST EAST OF PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN FRI NIGHT AND SAT AFTN. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY AND
WARMER. 43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

A MORE SPRING LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPING THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT HAS SURGED WEST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...
HOWEVER HUMIDITY INCREASES WERE ONLY MODEST. MIN HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND UP ONLY SLIGHLY TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND A FEW DRY
SHOWERS. WETTING PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO FIND AND RELEGATED TO HIGH
MTN PEAKS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE LIKELY BENEATH ANY VIRGA.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT TEMPS WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW INCREASES
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A LARGE DRY INTRUSION SHIFTS EAST.
ANY REMNANT MOISTURE WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN
IN THE FORM OF VIRGA SHOWERS WITH ENHANCED GUSTY WINDS. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OUT WEST WITH MIN RH VALUES NEAR 10 PCT
AND HAINES NEAR 5 AND 6. SOME SPOTTY NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OUT WEST AND NEAR VEGAS. RIDGETOP WINDS WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH EAST SLOPE MTN WAVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED.

RH RECOVERIES LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIR IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS...5 AND 6 HAINES...AND WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS.
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE AREA FROM CLINES TO
VEGAS EAST OVER THE HIGHLANDS AND NE PLAINS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WX CONDITIONS THUS FAR THIS SEASON WILL COME THURSDAY AS POOR
RECOVERIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WARM LOW TEMPS LEAD INTO WIDESPREAD
STRONG WINDS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FLIRTING
WITH THE NE PLAINS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL THERE.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF WITH A COOL DOWN
FRIDAY BEFORE A POTENTIAL EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY DRY AND WINDY
SOUTHWEST FLOW IMPACTS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 301744 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1144 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY TS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
THE HIGH TERRAIN AFTER 20Z AND CONTINUE THRU APPROXIMATELY SUNSET.
VIRGA/DRY MICROBURSTS MAY LEAD TO GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.
HI RES MODELS SHOWING CHANCES OF A FEW SHRA AROUND KROW...WITH
LITTLE ELSEWHERE. ADDED VCSH FOR KROW THIS AFTN...BUT ALSO KEPT
VCSH MENTION AT KSAF AND KLVS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
BIGGEST WEATHER ISSUE THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY BE STRONG
WINDS AND AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PROBABLY
SOME BLOWING DUST TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AND EVEN MORE SO ON
THURSDAY. TIL THEN JUST A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY
ACROSS AND A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THE VAST MAJORITY
LIKELY TO PRODUCE NOTHING MORE THAN VERY BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...IF EVEN THAT. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMP DAY TODAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
THE RULE AS BACK DOOR FRONT FADES AWAY ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE
STATE. AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS AND ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS...PRIMARILY
OVER AND PERHAPS A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN RAIN
WILL BE SCARCE WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL PASS WELL S OF NM MON NIGHT
AND TUE...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MIDDAY
THROUGH AFTN TUE.

RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN BY WED WITH WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH
THU. ANY REMAINING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL BE
TOO FEEBLE TO ALLOW ANY PRECIP...AND FEW IF ANY BUILDUPS...TO
BREAK OUT. TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE NORM. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
ON FIRE WEATHER WED AND THU WITH FAIRLY SMALL CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS COVERAGE WED...BUT MUCH LARGER AREA THU. DETAILS IN
FIRE WX DISCUSSION. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE
FRIDAY AND DROP A COLD FRONT S AND W ACROSS A GOOD PORTION IF NOT
ALL OF THE STATE. ECMWF NOW ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS WITH
FRONTAL PROGRESSION. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY WITH VERY SLIM
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES NEAR TO JUST EAST OF PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN FRI NIGHT AND SAT AFTN. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY AND
WARMER. 43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

A MORE SPRING LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPING THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT HAS SURGED WEST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...
HOWEVER HUMIDITY INCREASES WERE ONLY MODEST. MIN HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND UP ONLY SLIGHLY TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND A FEW DRY
SHOWERS. WETTING PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO FIND AND RELEGATED TO HIGH
MTN PEAKS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE LIKELY BENEATH ANY VIRGA.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT TEMPS WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW INCREASES
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A LARGE DRY INTRUSION SHIFTS EAST.
ANY REMNANT MOISTURE WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN
IN THE FORM OF VIRGA SHOWERS WITH ENHANCED GUSTY WINDS. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OUT WEST WITH MIN RH VALUES NEAR 10 PCT
AND HAINES NEAR 5 AND 6. SOME SPOTTY NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OUT WEST AND NEAR VEGAS. RIDGETOP WINDS WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH EAST SLOPE MTN WAVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED.

RH RECOVERIES LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIR IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS...5 AND 6 HAINES...AND WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS.
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE AREA FROM CLINES TO
VEGAS EAST OVER THE HIGHLANDS AND NE PLAINS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WX CONDITIONS THUS FAR THIS SEASON WILL COME THURSDAY AS POOR
RECOVERIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WARM LOW TEMPS LEAD INTO WIDESPREAD
STRONG WINDS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FLIRTING
WITH THE NE PLAINS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL THERE.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF WITH A COOL DOWN
FRIDAY BEFORE A POTENTIAL EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY DRY AND WINDY
SOUTHWEST FLOW IMPACTS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 301744 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1144 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY TS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
THE HIGH TERRAIN AFTER 20Z AND CONTINUE THRU APPROXIMATELY SUNSET.
VIRGA/DRY MICROBURSTS MAY LEAD TO GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.
HI RES MODELS SHOWING CHANCES OF A FEW SHRA AROUND KROW...WITH
LITTLE ELSEWHERE. ADDED VCSH FOR KROW THIS AFTN...BUT ALSO KEPT
VCSH MENTION AT KSAF AND KLVS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
BIGGEST WEATHER ISSUE THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY BE STRONG
WINDS AND AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PROBABLY
SOME BLOWING DUST TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AND EVEN MORE SO ON
THURSDAY. TIL THEN JUST A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY
ACROSS AND A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THE VAST MAJORITY
LIKELY TO PRODUCE NOTHING MORE THAN VERY BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...IF EVEN THAT. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMP DAY TODAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
THE RULE AS BACK DOOR FRONT FADES AWAY ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE
STATE. AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS AND ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS...PRIMARILY
OVER AND PERHAPS A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN RAIN
WILL BE SCARCE WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL PASS WELL S OF NM MON NIGHT
AND TUE...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MIDDAY
THROUGH AFTN TUE.

RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN BY WED WITH WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH
THU. ANY REMAINING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL BE
TOO FEEBLE TO ALLOW ANY PRECIP...AND FEW IF ANY BUILDUPS...TO
BREAK OUT. TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE NORM. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
ON FIRE WEATHER WED AND THU WITH FAIRLY SMALL CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS COVERAGE WED...BUT MUCH LARGER AREA THU. DETAILS IN
FIRE WX DISCUSSION. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE
FRIDAY AND DROP A COLD FRONT S AND W ACROSS A GOOD PORTION IF NOT
ALL OF THE STATE. ECMWF NOW ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS WITH
FRONTAL PROGRESSION. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY WITH VERY SLIM
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES NEAR TO JUST EAST OF PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN FRI NIGHT AND SAT AFTN. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY AND
WARMER. 43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

A MORE SPRING LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPING THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT HAS SURGED WEST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...
HOWEVER HUMIDITY INCREASES WERE ONLY MODEST. MIN HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND UP ONLY SLIGHLY TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND A FEW DRY
SHOWERS. WETTING PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO FIND AND RELEGATED TO HIGH
MTN PEAKS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE LIKELY BENEATH ANY VIRGA.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT TEMPS WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW INCREASES
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A LARGE DRY INTRUSION SHIFTS EAST.
ANY REMNANT MOISTURE WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN
IN THE FORM OF VIRGA SHOWERS WITH ENHANCED GUSTY WINDS. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OUT WEST WITH MIN RH VALUES NEAR 10 PCT
AND HAINES NEAR 5 AND 6. SOME SPOTTY NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OUT WEST AND NEAR VEGAS. RIDGETOP WINDS WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH EAST SLOPE MTN WAVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED.

RH RECOVERIES LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIR IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS...5 AND 6 HAINES...AND WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS.
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE AREA FROM CLINES TO
VEGAS EAST OVER THE HIGHLANDS AND NE PLAINS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WX CONDITIONS THUS FAR THIS SEASON WILL COME THURSDAY AS POOR
RECOVERIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WARM LOW TEMPS LEAD INTO WIDESPREAD
STRONG WINDS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FLIRTING
WITH THE NE PLAINS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL THERE.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF WITH A COOL DOWN
FRIDAY BEFORE A POTENTIAL EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY DRY AND WINDY
SOUTHWEST FLOW IMPACTS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 301744 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1144 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY TS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
THE HIGH TERRAIN AFTER 20Z AND CONTINUE THRU APPROXIMATELY SUNSET.
VIRGA/DRY MICROBURSTS MAY LEAD TO GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.
HI RES MODELS SHOWING CHANCES OF A FEW SHRA AROUND KROW...WITH
LITTLE ELSEWHERE. ADDED VCSH FOR KROW THIS AFTN...BUT ALSO KEPT
VCSH MENTION AT KSAF AND KLVS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
BIGGEST WEATHER ISSUE THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY BE STRONG
WINDS AND AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PROBABLY
SOME BLOWING DUST TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AND EVEN MORE SO ON
THURSDAY. TIL THEN JUST A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY
ACROSS AND A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THE VAST MAJORITY
LIKELY TO PRODUCE NOTHING MORE THAN VERY BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...IF EVEN THAT. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMP DAY TODAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
THE RULE AS BACK DOOR FRONT FADES AWAY ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE
STATE. AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS AND ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS...PRIMARILY
OVER AND PERHAPS A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN RAIN
WILL BE SCARCE WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL PASS WELL S OF NM MON NIGHT
AND TUE...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MIDDAY
THROUGH AFTN TUE.

RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN BY WED WITH WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH
THU. ANY REMAINING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL BE
TOO FEEBLE TO ALLOW ANY PRECIP...AND FEW IF ANY BUILDUPS...TO
BREAK OUT. TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE NORM. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
ON FIRE WEATHER WED AND THU WITH FAIRLY SMALL CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS COVERAGE WED...BUT MUCH LARGER AREA THU. DETAILS IN
FIRE WX DISCUSSION. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE
FRIDAY AND DROP A COLD FRONT S AND W ACROSS A GOOD PORTION IF NOT
ALL OF THE STATE. ECMWF NOW ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS WITH
FRONTAL PROGRESSION. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY WITH VERY SLIM
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES NEAR TO JUST EAST OF PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN FRI NIGHT AND SAT AFTN. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY AND
WARMER. 43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

A MORE SPRING LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPING THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT HAS SURGED WEST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...
HOWEVER HUMIDITY INCREASES WERE ONLY MODEST. MIN HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND UP ONLY SLIGHLY TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND A FEW DRY
SHOWERS. WETTING PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO FIND AND RELEGATED TO HIGH
MTN PEAKS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE LIKELY BENEATH ANY VIRGA.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT TEMPS WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW INCREASES
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A LARGE DRY INTRUSION SHIFTS EAST.
ANY REMNANT MOISTURE WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN
IN THE FORM OF VIRGA SHOWERS WITH ENHANCED GUSTY WINDS. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OUT WEST WITH MIN RH VALUES NEAR 10 PCT
AND HAINES NEAR 5 AND 6. SOME SPOTTY NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OUT WEST AND NEAR VEGAS. RIDGETOP WINDS WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH EAST SLOPE MTN WAVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED.

RH RECOVERIES LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIR IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS...5 AND 6 HAINES...AND WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS.
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE AREA FROM CLINES TO
VEGAS EAST OVER THE HIGHLANDS AND NE PLAINS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WX CONDITIONS THUS FAR THIS SEASON WILL COME THURSDAY AS POOR
RECOVERIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WARM LOW TEMPS LEAD INTO WIDESPREAD
STRONG WINDS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FLIRTING
WITH THE NE PLAINS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL THERE.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF WITH A COOL DOWN
FRIDAY BEFORE A POTENTIAL EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY DRY AND WINDY
SOUTHWEST FLOW IMPACTS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 301744 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1144 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY TS WILL DEVELOP AROUND
THE HIGH TERRAIN AFTER 20Z AND CONTINUE THRU APPROXIMATELY SUNSET.
VIRGA/DRY MICROBURSTS MAY LEAD TO GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.
HI RES MODELS SHOWING CHANCES OF A FEW SHRA AROUND KROW...WITH
LITTLE ELSEWHERE. ADDED VCSH FOR KROW THIS AFTN...BUT ALSO KEPT
VCSH MENTION AT KSAF AND KLVS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
BIGGEST WEATHER ISSUE THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY BE STRONG
WINDS AND AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PROBABLY
SOME BLOWING DUST TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AND EVEN MORE SO ON
THURSDAY. TIL THEN JUST A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY
ACROSS AND A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THE VAST MAJORITY
LIKELY TO PRODUCE NOTHING MORE THAN VERY BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...IF EVEN THAT. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMP DAY TODAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
THE RULE AS BACK DOOR FRONT FADES AWAY ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE
STATE. AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS AND ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS...PRIMARILY
OVER AND PERHAPS A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN RAIN
WILL BE SCARCE WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL PASS WELL S OF NM MON NIGHT
AND TUE...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MIDDAY
THROUGH AFTN TUE.

RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN BY WED WITH WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH
THU. ANY REMAINING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL BE
TOO FEEBLE TO ALLOW ANY PRECIP...AND FEW IF ANY BUILDUPS...TO
BREAK OUT. TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE NORM. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
ON FIRE WEATHER WED AND THU WITH FAIRLY SMALL CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS COVERAGE WED...BUT MUCH LARGER AREA THU. DETAILS IN
FIRE WX DISCUSSION. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE
FRIDAY AND DROP A COLD FRONT S AND W ACROSS A GOOD PORTION IF NOT
ALL OF THE STATE. ECMWF NOW ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS WITH
FRONTAL PROGRESSION. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY WITH VERY SLIM
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES NEAR TO JUST EAST OF PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN FRI NIGHT AND SAT AFTN. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY AND
WARMER. 43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

A MORE SPRING LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPING THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT HAS SURGED WEST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...
HOWEVER HUMIDITY INCREASES WERE ONLY MODEST. MIN HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND UP ONLY SLIGHLY TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND A FEW DRY
SHOWERS. WETTING PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO FIND AND RELEGATED TO HIGH
MTN PEAKS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE LIKELY BENEATH ANY VIRGA.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT TEMPS WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW INCREASES
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A LARGE DRY INTRUSION SHIFTS EAST.
ANY REMNANT MOISTURE WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN
IN THE FORM OF VIRGA SHOWERS WITH ENHANCED GUSTY WINDS. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OUT WEST WITH MIN RH VALUES NEAR 10 PCT
AND HAINES NEAR 5 AND 6. SOME SPOTTY NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OUT WEST AND NEAR VEGAS. RIDGETOP WINDS WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH EAST SLOPE MTN WAVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED.

RH RECOVERIES LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIR IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS...5 AND 6 HAINES...AND WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS.
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE AREA FROM CLINES TO
VEGAS EAST OVER THE HIGHLANDS AND NE PLAINS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WX CONDITIONS THUS FAR THIS SEASON WILL COME THURSDAY AS POOR
RECOVERIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WARM LOW TEMPS LEAD INTO WIDESPREAD
STRONG WINDS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FLIRTING
WITH THE NE PLAINS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL THERE.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF WITH A COOL DOWN
FRIDAY BEFORE A POTENTIAL EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY DRY AND WINDY
SOUTHWEST FLOW IMPACTS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 301126 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
526 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN AFT 20Z
WITH AREAS OF VIRGA LEADING TO GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.
STEERING FLOWS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL FAVOR THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF VCSH AT KSAF AND KLVS. OTHERWISE...VFR ALL AREAS UNDER
SLIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
BIGGEST WEATHER ISSUE THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY BE STRONG
WINDS AND AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PROBABLY
SOME BLOWING DUST TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AND EVEN MORE SO ON
THURSDAY. TIL THEN JUST A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY
ACROSS AND A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THE VAST MAJORITY
LIKELY TO PRODUCE NOTHING MORE THAN VERY BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...IF EVEN THAT. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMP DAY TODAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
THE RULE AS BACK DOOR FRONT FADES AWAY ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE
STATE. AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS AND ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS...PRIMARILY
OVER AND PERHAPS A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN RAIN
WILL BE SCARCE WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL PASS WELL S OF NM MON NIGHT
AND TUE...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MIDDAY
THROUGH AFTN TUE.

RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN BY WED WITH WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH
THU. ANY REMAINING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL BE
TOO FEEBLE TO ALLOW ANY PRECIP...AND FEW IF ANY BUILDUPS...TO
BREAK OUT. TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE NORM. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
ON FIRE WEATHER WED AND THU WITH FAIRLY SMALL CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS COVERAGE WED...BUT MUCH LARGER AREA THU. DETAILS IN
FIRE WX DISCUSSION. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE
FRIDAY AND DROP A COLD FRONT S AND W ACROSS A GOOD PORTION IF NOT
ALL OF THE STATE. ECMWF NOW ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS WITH
FRONTAL PROGRESSION. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY WITH VERY SLIM
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES NEAR TO JUST EAST OF PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN FRI NIGHT AND SAT AFTN. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY AND
WARMER. 43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

A MORE SPRING LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPING THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT HAS SURGED WEST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...
HOWEVER HUMIDITY INCREASES WERE ONLY MODEST. MIN HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND UP ONLY SLIGHLY TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND A FEW DRY
SHOWERS. WETTING PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO FIND AND RELEGATED TO HIGH
MTN PEAKS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE LIKELY BENEATH ANY VIRGA.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT TEMPS WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW INCREASES
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A LARGE DRY INTRUSION SHIFTS EAST.
ANY REMNANT MOISTURE WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN
IN THE FORM OF VIRGA SHOWERS WITH ENHANCED GUSTY WINDS. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OUT WEST WITH MIN RH VALUES NEAR 10 PCT
AND HAINES NEAR 5 AND 6. SOME SPOTTY NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OUT WEST AND NEAR VEGAS. RIDGETOP WINDS WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH EAST SLOPE MTN WAVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED.

RH RECOVERIES LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIR IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS...5 AND 6 HAINES...AND WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS.
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE AREA FROM CLINES TO
VEGAS EAST OVER THE HIGHLANDS AND NE PLAINS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WX CONDITIONS THUS FAR THIS SEASON WILL COME THURSDAY AS POOR
RECOVERIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WARM LOW TEMPS LEAD INTO WIDESPREAD
STRONG WINDS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FLIRTING
WITH THE NE PLAINS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL THERE.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF WITH A COOL DOWN
FRIDAY BEFORE A POTENTIAL EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY DRY AND WINDY
SOUTHWEST FLOW IMPACTS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 301126 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
526 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN AFT 20Z
WITH AREAS OF VIRGA LEADING TO GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.
STEERING FLOWS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL FAVOR THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF VCSH AT KSAF AND KLVS. OTHERWISE...VFR ALL AREAS UNDER
SLIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
BIGGEST WEATHER ISSUE THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY BE STRONG
WINDS AND AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PROBABLY
SOME BLOWING DUST TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AND EVEN MORE SO ON
THURSDAY. TIL THEN JUST A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY
ACROSS AND A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THE VAST MAJORITY
LIKELY TO PRODUCE NOTHING MORE THAN VERY BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...IF EVEN THAT. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMP DAY TODAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
THE RULE AS BACK DOOR FRONT FADES AWAY ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE
STATE. AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS AND ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS...PRIMARILY
OVER AND PERHAPS A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN RAIN
WILL BE SCARCE WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL PASS WELL S OF NM MON NIGHT
AND TUE...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MIDDAY
THROUGH AFTN TUE.

RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN BY WED WITH WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH
THU. ANY REMAINING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL BE
TOO FEEBLE TO ALLOW ANY PRECIP...AND FEW IF ANY BUILDUPS...TO
BREAK OUT. TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE NORM. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
ON FIRE WEATHER WED AND THU WITH FAIRLY SMALL CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS COVERAGE WED...BUT MUCH LARGER AREA THU. DETAILS IN
FIRE WX DISCUSSION. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE
FRIDAY AND DROP A COLD FRONT S AND W ACROSS A GOOD PORTION IF NOT
ALL OF THE STATE. ECMWF NOW ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS WITH
FRONTAL PROGRESSION. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY WITH VERY SLIM
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES NEAR TO JUST EAST OF PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN FRI NIGHT AND SAT AFTN. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY AND
WARMER. 43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

A MORE SPRING LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPING THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT HAS SURGED WEST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...
HOWEVER HUMIDITY INCREASES WERE ONLY MODEST. MIN HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND UP ONLY SLIGHLY TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND A FEW DRY
SHOWERS. WETTING PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO FIND AND RELEGATED TO HIGH
MTN PEAKS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE LIKELY BENEATH ANY VIRGA.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT TEMPS WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW INCREASES
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A LARGE DRY INTRUSION SHIFTS EAST.
ANY REMNANT MOISTURE WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN
IN THE FORM OF VIRGA SHOWERS WITH ENHANCED GUSTY WINDS. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OUT WEST WITH MIN RH VALUES NEAR 10 PCT
AND HAINES NEAR 5 AND 6. SOME SPOTTY NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OUT WEST AND NEAR VEGAS. RIDGETOP WINDS WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH EAST SLOPE MTN WAVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED.

RH RECOVERIES LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIR IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS...5 AND 6 HAINES...AND WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS.
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE AREA FROM CLINES TO
VEGAS EAST OVER THE HIGHLANDS AND NE PLAINS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WX CONDITIONS THUS FAR THIS SEASON WILL COME THURSDAY AS POOR
RECOVERIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WARM LOW TEMPS LEAD INTO WIDESPREAD
STRONG WINDS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FLIRTING
WITH THE NE PLAINS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL THERE.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF WITH A COOL DOWN
FRIDAY BEFORE A POTENTIAL EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY DRY AND WINDY
SOUTHWEST FLOW IMPACTS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 301126 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
526 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP AROUND THE HIGH TERRAIN AFT 20Z
WITH AREAS OF VIRGA LEADING TO GUSTY AND ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS.
STEERING FLOWS FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST WILL FAVOR THE GREATEST
CHANCE OF VCSH AT KSAF AND KLVS. OTHERWISE...VFR ALL AREAS UNDER
SLIGHT AFTERNOON BREEZES.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
BIGGEST WEATHER ISSUE THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY BE STRONG
WINDS AND AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PROBABLY
SOME BLOWING DUST TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AND EVEN MORE SO ON
THURSDAY. TIL THEN JUST A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY
ACROSS AND A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THE VAST MAJORITY
LIKELY TO PRODUCE NOTHING MORE THAN VERY BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...IF EVEN THAT. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMP DAY TODAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
THE RULE AS BACK DOOR FRONT FADES AWAY ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE
STATE. AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS AND ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS...PRIMARILY
OVER AND PERHAPS A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN RAIN
WILL BE SCARCE WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL PASS WELL S OF NM MON NIGHT
AND TUE...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MIDDAY
THROUGH AFTN TUE.

RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN BY WED WITH WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH
THU. ANY REMAINING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL BE
TOO FEEBLE TO ALLOW ANY PRECIP...AND FEW IF ANY BUILDUPS...TO
BREAK OUT. TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE NORM. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
ON FIRE WEATHER WED AND THU WITH FAIRLY SMALL CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS COVERAGE WED...BUT MUCH LARGER AREA THU. DETAILS IN
FIRE WX DISCUSSION. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE
FRIDAY AND DROP A COLD FRONT S AND W ACROSS A GOOD PORTION IF NOT
ALL OF THE STATE. ECMWF NOW ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS WITH
FRONTAL PROGRESSION. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY WITH VERY SLIM
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES NEAR TO JUST EAST OF PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN FRI NIGHT AND SAT AFTN. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY AND
WARMER. 43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

A MORE SPRING LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPING THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT HAS SURGED WEST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...
HOWEVER HUMIDITY INCREASES WERE ONLY MODEST. MIN HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND UP ONLY SLIGHLY TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND A FEW DRY
SHOWERS. WETTING PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO FIND AND RELEGATED TO HIGH
MTN PEAKS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE LIKELY BENEATH ANY VIRGA.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT TEMPS WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW INCREASES
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A LARGE DRY INTRUSION SHIFTS EAST.
ANY REMNANT MOISTURE WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN
IN THE FORM OF VIRGA SHOWERS WITH ENHANCED GUSTY WINDS. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OUT WEST WITH MIN RH VALUES NEAR 10 PCT
AND HAINES NEAR 5 AND 6. SOME SPOTTY NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OUT WEST AND NEAR VEGAS. RIDGETOP WINDS WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH EAST SLOPE MTN WAVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED.

RH RECOVERIES LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIR IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS...5 AND 6 HAINES...AND WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS.
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE AREA FROM CLINES TO
VEGAS EAST OVER THE HIGHLANDS AND NE PLAINS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WX CONDITIONS THUS FAR THIS SEASON WILL COME THURSDAY AS POOR
RECOVERIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WARM LOW TEMPS LEAD INTO WIDESPREAD
STRONG WINDS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FLIRTING
WITH THE NE PLAINS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL THERE.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF WITH A COOL DOWN
FRIDAY BEFORE A POTENTIAL EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY DRY AND WINDY
SOUTHWEST FLOW IMPACTS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK. GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 300930
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
BIGGEST WEATHER ISSUE THROUGH THIS WEEK WILL LIKELY BE STRONG
WINDS AND AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AND PROBABLY
SOME BLOWING DUST TO SOME DEGREE WEDNESDAY AND EVEN MORE SO ON
THURSDAY. TIL THEN JUST A FEW HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS MOSTLY
ACROSS AND A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN...THE VAST MAJORITY
LIKELY TO PRODUCE NOTHING MORE THAN VERY BRIEF LIGHT SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES...IF EVEN THAT. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER ABOVE NORMAL TEMP DAY TODAY WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS
THE RULE AS BACK DOOR FRONT FADES AWAY ACROSS THE WEST HALF OF THE
STATE. AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST ENOUGH
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST ALLOW FOR SOME AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS AND ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND STORMS...PRIMARILY
OVER AND PERHAPS A BIT EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. AGAIN RAIN
WILL BE SCARCE WITH ASSOCIATED GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. THE
CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL PASS WELL S OF NM MON NIGHT
AND TUE...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN JUST UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MAINLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE MIDDAY
THROUGH AFTN TUE.

RIDGE TO BREAK DOWN BY WED WITH WESTERLY FLOW INCREASING THROUGH
THU. ANY REMAINING MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY COMBINATION WILL BE
TOO FEEBLE TO ALLOW ANY PRECIP...AND FEW IF ANY BUILDUPS...TO
BREAK OUT. TEMPS REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE NORM. MAIN FOCUS WILL BE
ON FIRE WEATHER WED AND THU WITH FAIRLY SMALL CRITICAL FIRE WX
CONDITIONS COVERAGE WED...BUT MUCH LARGER AREA THU. DETAILS IN
FIRE WX DISCUSSION. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE
FRIDAY AND DROP A COLD FRONT S AND W ACROSS A GOOD PORTION IF NOT
ALL OF THE STATE. ECMWF NOW ONLY SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN GFS WITH
FRONTAL PROGRESSION. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS FRIDAY WITH VERY SLIM
SHOWER AND STORM CHANCES NEAR TO JUST EAST OF PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN FRI NIGHT AND SAT AFTN. SUNDAY WILL LIKELY BE DRY AND
WARMER.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

A MORE SPRING LIKE PATTERN DEVELOPING THIS WEEK WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASING CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT. THE BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT HAS SURGED WEST TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...
HOWEVER HUMIDITY INCREASES WERE ONLY MODEST. MIN HUMIDITIES WILL
TREND UP ONLY SLIGHLY TODAY WITH MORE CLOUD COVER AND A FEW DRY
SHOWERS. WETTING PRECIP WILL BE HARD TO FIND AND RELEGATED TO HIGH
MTN PEAKS. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS ARE LIKELY BENEATH ANY VIRGA.
DESPITE THE COLD FRONT TEMPS WILL REMAIN 10 TO 15F ABOVE NORMAL.

THE PATTERN WILL CHANGE STARTING TUESDAY AS ZONAL FLOW INCREASES
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND A LARGE DRY INTRUSION SHIFTS EAST.
ANY REMNANT MOISTURE WILL BE SQUEEZED OUT NEAR THE HIGH TERRAIN
IN THE FORM OF VIRGA SHOWERS WITH ENHANCED GUSTY WINDS. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST OUT WEST WITH MIN RH VALUES NEAR 10 PCT
AND HAINES NEAR 5 AND 6. SOME SPOTTY NEAR CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE OUT WEST AND NEAR VEGAS. RIDGETOP WINDS WILL INCREASE
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH EAST SLOPE MTN WAVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED.

RH RECOVERIES LEADING INTO WEDNESDAY WILL BE FAIR IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL QUICKLY ON WEDNESDAY WITH ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPS...5 AND 6 HAINES...AND WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS.
CRITICAL FIRE WX CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY IN THE AREA FROM CLINES TO
VEGAS EAST OVER THE HIGHLANDS AND NE PLAINS. THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
FIRE WX CONDITIONS THUS FAR THIS SEASON WILL COME THURSDAY AS POOR
RECOVERIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WARM LOW TEMPS LEAD INTO WIDESPREAD
STRONG WINDS WITH SINGLE DIGIT RH. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FLIRTING
WITH THE NE PLAINS MAY LIMIT POTENTIAL THERE.

EXTENDED GUIDANCE SHOWS SOME TEMPORARY RELIEF WITH A COOL DOWN
FRIDAY BEFORE A POTENTIAL EXTENDED PERIOD OF VERY DRY AND WINDY
SOUTHWEST FLOW IMPACTS THE STATE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE SOME WIND IMPACTS. EASTERLY GAP/CANYON WIND DEVELOPED
AT KSAF AND KABQ EARLIER THIS EVENING AS A FRONT PUSHED INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BUT GUSTS ARE BEGINNING TO GRADUALLY DECREASE.
AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING WAS ISSUED AT KABQ FOR GUSTS TO 35 KT
EARLIER...BUT GUSTS SHOULD NOW STAY JUST BELOW THIS 35 KT
THRESHOLD GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTIATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
RAINFALL WILL LARGELY BE EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT LOWERING TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY IS
ANTICIPATED WITH MONDAY`S SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  77  38  77  39 /   5   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  72  30  71  30 /   5   5   5   0
CUBA............................  72  35  72  35 /   5   5   5   0
GALLUP..........................  74  31  74  32 /   5   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  70  33  70  35 /  10  10   0   0
GRANTS..........................  73  32  74  33 /  10   5   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  70  37  70  36 /  10   5   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  79  45  77  45 /  10  10   0   0
CHAMA...........................  67  30  66  30 /  10  10   5   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  68  42  70  42 /  10  10   5   0
PECOS...........................  69  40  71  41 /  10   5  10   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  69  31  69  31 /  10  10  10   0
RED RIVER.......................  59  30  60  31 /  20  20  10   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  63  29  64  30 /  20  10  10   5
TAOS............................  70  33  70  33 /  10   5   5   0
MORA............................  68  37  70  38 /  10  10  10   5
ESPANOLA........................  75  42  76  42 /   5   5   5   0
SANTA FE........................  71  41  71  42 /  10   5   5   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  74  39  75  39 /   5   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  75  46  76  46 /   5   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  78  48  79  48 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  80  46  81  45 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  80  45  81  45 /   5   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  80  44  81  45 /   5   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  78  46  79  47 /   5   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  80  47  82  48 /   5   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  71  43  73  43 /  10   5   5   0
TIJERAS.........................  75  43  75  43 /  10   5   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  72  37  76  38 /  10  10   5   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  71  40  73  42 /  10  10   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  72  43  73  43 /  10  10   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  75  46  76  46 /  10   5   5   0
RUIDOSO.........................  71  44  71  43 /  10  10  10   5
CAPULIN.........................  71  39  74  41 /  10  10   5   5
RATON...........................  76  36  77  36 /  10   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  74  37  76  37 /  10   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  72  39  75  39 /  10  10   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  78  46  82  49 /   5   0   5   5
ROY.............................  74  41  79  43 /   5   0   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  79  48  83  48 /   5   0   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  77  45  81  47 /   5   0   0   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  82  47  85  48 /   5   0   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  78  47  82  48 /   5   0  10   5
PORTALES........................  77  47  82  47 /   5   0  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  77  48  83  49 /   5   0   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  80  48  86  49 /   5   5  10   5
PICACHO.........................  74  48  79  49 /  10   5  10   5
ELK.............................  70  47  74  47 /  10  10  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

43





000
FXUS65 KABQ 300539 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1139 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE SOME WIND IMPACTS. EASTERLY GAP/CANYON WIND DEVELOPED
AT KSAF AND KABQ EARLIER THIS EVENING AS A FRONT PUSHED INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BUT GUSTS ARE BEGINNING TO GRADUALLY DECREASE.
AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING WAS ISSUED AT KABQ FOR GUSTS TO 35 KT
EARLIER...BUT GUSTS SHOULD NOW STAY JUST BELOW THIS 35 KT
THRESHOLD GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTIATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
RAINFALL WILL LARGELY BE EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT LOWERING TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY IS
ANTICIPATED WITH MONDAY`S SHOWERS/STORMS.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NO WIDESPREAD OE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH RAIN THOUGH WITH
GUSTY WINDS MORE OF A CONCERN. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY
AND WARM WITH INCREASING WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BRING COOLING
AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM BUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS MAKING
GOOD PROGRESS S AND W THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
LIGHTING DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RAIN. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE THOUGH. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NM.
MODERATE EAST CANYON WINDS WILL SPILL INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO HANG ON OVER NM MONDAY BUT DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AND ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS...PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AGAIN RAIN WILL BE SCARCE
WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER IN THE SE AND MILDER IN THE NE AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL FINALLY MOVE INLAND
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAKEN AND PASS S OF NM. ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE
MINIMAL BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY WITH W FLOW INCREASING
THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL BE DRY AND QUITE WARM. MAIN FOCUS WILL
BE ON FIRE WEATHER WHERE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
BY THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE FRIDAY
AND DROP A COLD FRONT S. ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
FRONT WITH HIGHS NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE FOR
FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NE THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER ONCE AGAIN. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...EVEN BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED BETWEEN 2
AND  3 PM ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS WITH DRY CONVECTION. MOSTLY FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY FORECAST TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME POOR RECOVERY DOWN
SOUTH. COVERAGE OF DRY CONVECTION WILL EXPAND MONDAY TO INCLUDE
MOST OF OUR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...BUT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
LOW. SLIGHTLY DRIER/WARMER OVERALL TUESDAY AND CONTINUED UNSTABLE
WITH MORE DAYTIME HEATING-TRIGGERED DRY CONVECTION. INCREASING
WINDS FORECAST TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AND WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS AN UPTREND.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP DAY FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
EVENT ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID...IF OUR WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY INCREASES 2-3KTS MORE THEN WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CRITICAL
DAY AS WELL AND WE`LL END UP WITH AT LEAST A TWO DAY EVENT. BOTH
DAYS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HAINES VALUES OF 5-6...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...EXCELLENT MIXING AND SOME SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (ESPECIALLY THURSDAY). THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WINDIER DAY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVER OVER THE AREA WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CENTRAL AND NORTH. ANY POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL BE RELEGATED
TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH
ELEVATED CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE BEST BET WITH A DOWNTREND IN
WIND SPEEDS FORECAST. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO DRY...WARM AND UNSTABLE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 300539 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1139 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE SOME WIND IMPACTS. EASTERLY GAP/CANYON WIND DEVELOPED
AT KSAF AND KABQ EARLIER THIS EVENING AS A FRONT PUSHED INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BUT GUSTS ARE BEGINNING TO GRADUALLY DECREASE.
AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING WAS ISSUED AT KABQ FOR GUSTS TO 35 KT
EARLIER...BUT GUSTS SHOULD NOW STAY JUST BELOW THIS 35 KT
THRESHOLD GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTIATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
RAINFALL WILL LARGELY BE EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT LOWERING TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY IS
ANTICIPATED WITH MONDAY`S SHOWERS/STORMS.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NO WIDESPREAD OE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH RAIN THOUGH WITH
GUSTY WINDS MORE OF A CONCERN. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY
AND WARM WITH INCREASING WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BRING COOLING
AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM BUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS MAKING
GOOD PROGRESS S AND W THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
LIGHTING DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RAIN. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE THOUGH. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NM.
MODERATE EAST CANYON WINDS WILL SPILL INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO HANG ON OVER NM MONDAY BUT DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AND ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS...PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AGAIN RAIN WILL BE SCARCE
WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER IN THE SE AND MILDER IN THE NE AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL FINALLY MOVE INLAND
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAKEN AND PASS S OF NM. ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE
MINIMAL BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY WITH W FLOW INCREASING
THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL BE DRY AND QUITE WARM. MAIN FOCUS WILL
BE ON FIRE WEATHER WHERE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
BY THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE FRIDAY
AND DROP A COLD FRONT S. ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
FRONT WITH HIGHS NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE FOR
FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NE THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER ONCE AGAIN. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...EVEN BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED BETWEEN 2
AND  3 PM ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS WITH DRY CONVECTION. MOSTLY FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY FORECAST TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME POOR RECOVERY DOWN
SOUTH. COVERAGE OF DRY CONVECTION WILL EXPAND MONDAY TO INCLUDE
MOST OF OUR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...BUT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
LOW. SLIGHTLY DRIER/WARMER OVERALL TUESDAY AND CONTINUED UNSTABLE
WITH MORE DAYTIME HEATING-TRIGGERED DRY CONVECTION. INCREASING
WINDS FORECAST TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AND WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS AN UPTREND.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP DAY FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
EVENT ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID...IF OUR WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY INCREASES 2-3KTS MORE THEN WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CRITICAL
DAY AS WELL AND WE`LL END UP WITH AT LEAST A TWO DAY EVENT. BOTH
DAYS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HAINES VALUES OF 5-6...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...EXCELLENT MIXING AND SOME SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (ESPECIALLY THURSDAY). THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WINDIER DAY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVER OVER THE AREA WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CENTRAL AND NORTH. ANY POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL BE RELEGATED
TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH
ELEVATED CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE BEST BET WITH A DOWNTREND IN
WIND SPEEDS FORECAST. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO DRY...WARM AND UNSTABLE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 300539 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1139 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE SOME WIND IMPACTS. EASTERLY GAP/CANYON WIND DEVELOPED
AT KSAF AND KABQ EARLIER THIS EVENING AS A FRONT PUSHED INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BUT GUSTS ARE BEGINNING TO GRADUALLY DECREASE.
AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING WAS ISSUED AT KABQ FOR GUSTS TO 35 KT
EARLIER...BUT GUSTS SHOULD NOW STAY JUST BELOW THIS 35 KT
THRESHOLD GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTIATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
RAINFALL WILL LARGELY BE EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT LOWERING TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY IS
ANTICIPATED WITH MONDAY`S SHOWERS/STORMS.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NO WIDESPREAD OE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH RAIN THOUGH WITH
GUSTY WINDS MORE OF A CONCERN. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY
AND WARM WITH INCREASING WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BRING COOLING
AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM BUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS MAKING
GOOD PROGRESS S AND W THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
LIGHTING DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RAIN. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE THOUGH. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NM.
MODERATE EAST CANYON WINDS WILL SPILL INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO HANG ON OVER NM MONDAY BUT DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AND ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS...PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AGAIN RAIN WILL BE SCARCE
WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER IN THE SE AND MILDER IN THE NE AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL FINALLY MOVE INLAND
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAKEN AND PASS S OF NM. ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE
MINIMAL BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY WITH W FLOW INCREASING
THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL BE DRY AND QUITE WARM. MAIN FOCUS WILL
BE ON FIRE WEATHER WHERE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
BY THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE FRIDAY
AND DROP A COLD FRONT S. ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
FRONT WITH HIGHS NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE FOR
FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NE THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER ONCE AGAIN. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...EVEN BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED BETWEEN 2
AND  3 PM ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS WITH DRY CONVECTION. MOSTLY FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY FORECAST TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME POOR RECOVERY DOWN
SOUTH. COVERAGE OF DRY CONVECTION WILL EXPAND MONDAY TO INCLUDE
MOST OF OUR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...BUT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
LOW. SLIGHTLY DRIER/WARMER OVERALL TUESDAY AND CONTINUED UNSTABLE
WITH MORE DAYTIME HEATING-TRIGGERED DRY CONVECTION. INCREASING
WINDS FORECAST TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AND WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS AN UPTREND.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP DAY FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
EVENT ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID...IF OUR WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY INCREASES 2-3KTS MORE THEN WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CRITICAL
DAY AS WELL AND WE`LL END UP WITH AT LEAST A TWO DAY EVENT. BOTH
DAYS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HAINES VALUES OF 5-6...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...EXCELLENT MIXING AND SOME SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (ESPECIALLY THURSDAY). THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WINDIER DAY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVER OVER THE AREA WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CENTRAL AND NORTH. ANY POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL BE RELEGATED
TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH
ELEVATED CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE BEST BET WITH A DOWNTREND IN
WIND SPEEDS FORECAST. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO DRY...WARM AND UNSTABLE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 300539 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1139 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE SOME WIND IMPACTS. EASTERLY GAP/CANYON WIND DEVELOPED
AT KSAF AND KABQ EARLIER THIS EVENING AS A FRONT PUSHED INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BUT GUSTS ARE BEGINNING TO GRADUALLY DECREASE.
AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING WAS ISSUED AT KABQ FOR GUSTS TO 35 KT
EARLIER...BUT GUSTS SHOULD NOW STAY JUST BELOW THIS 35 KT
THRESHOLD GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTIATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
RAINFALL WILL LARGELY BE EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT LOWERING TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY IS
ANTICIPATED WITH MONDAY`S SHOWERS/STORMS.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NO WIDESPREAD OE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH RAIN THOUGH WITH
GUSTY WINDS MORE OF A CONCERN. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY
AND WARM WITH INCREASING WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BRING COOLING
AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM BUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS MAKING
GOOD PROGRESS S AND W THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
LIGHTING DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RAIN. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE THOUGH. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NM.
MODERATE EAST CANYON WINDS WILL SPILL INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO HANG ON OVER NM MONDAY BUT DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AND ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS...PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AGAIN RAIN WILL BE SCARCE
WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER IN THE SE AND MILDER IN THE NE AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL FINALLY MOVE INLAND
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAKEN AND PASS S OF NM. ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE
MINIMAL BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY WITH W FLOW INCREASING
THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL BE DRY AND QUITE WARM. MAIN FOCUS WILL
BE ON FIRE WEATHER WHERE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
BY THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE FRIDAY
AND DROP A COLD FRONT S. ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
FRONT WITH HIGHS NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE FOR
FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NE THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER ONCE AGAIN. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...EVEN BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED BETWEEN 2
AND  3 PM ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS WITH DRY CONVECTION. MOSTLY FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY FORECAST TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME POOR RECOVERY DOWN
SOUTH. COVERAGE OF DRY CONVECTION WILL EXPAND MONDAY TO INCLUDE
MOST OF OUR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...BUT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
LOW. SLIGHTLY DRIER/WARMER OVERALL TUESDAY AND CONTINUED UNSTABLE
WITH MORE DAYTIME HEATING-TRIGGERED DRY CONVECTION. INCREASING
WINDS FORECAST TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AND WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS AN UPTREND.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP DAY FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
EVENT ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID...IF OUR WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY INCREASES 2-3KTS MORE THEN WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CRITICAL
DAY AS WELL AND WE`LL END UP WITH AT LEAST A TWO DAY EVENT. BOTH
DAYS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HAINES VALUES OF 5-6...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...EXCELLENT MIXING AND SOME SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (ESPECIALLY THURSDAY). THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WINDIER DAY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVER OVER THE AREA WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CENTRAL AND NORTH. ANY POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL BE RELEGATED
TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH
ELEVATED CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE BEST BET WITH A DOWNTREND IN
WIND SPEEDS FORECAST. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO DRY...WARM AND UNSTABLE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 300539 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1139 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE SOME WIND IMPACTS. EASTERLY GAP/CANYON WIND DEVELOPED
AT KSAF AND KABQ EARLIER THIS EVENING AS A FRONT PUSHED INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BUT GUSTS ARE BEGINNING TO GRADUALLY DECREASE.
AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING WAS ISSUED AT KABQ FOR GUSTS TO 35 KT
EARLIER...BUT GUSTS SHOULD NOW STAY JUST BELOW THIS 35 KT
THRESHOLD GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTIATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
RAINFALL WILL LARGELY BE EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT LOWERING TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY IS
ANTICIPATED WITH MONDAY`S SHOWERS/STORMS.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NO WIDESPREAD OE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH RAIN THOUGH WITH
GUSTY WINDS MORE OF A CONCERN. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY
AND WARM WITH INCREASING WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BRING COOLING
AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM BUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS MAKING
GOOD PROGRESS S AND W THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
LIGHTING DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RAIN. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE THOUGH. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NM.
MODERATE EAST CANYON WINDS WILL SPILL INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO HANG ON OVER NM MONDAY BUT DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AND ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS...PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AGAIN RAIN WILL BE SCARCE
WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER IN THE SE AND MILDER IN THE NE AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL FINALLY MOVE INLAND
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAKEN AND PASS S OF NM. ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE
MINIMAL BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY WITH W FLOW INCREASING
THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL BE DRY AND QUITE WARM. MAIN FOCUS WILL
BE ON FIRE WEATHER WHERE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
BY THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE FRIDAY
AND DROP A COLD FRONT S. ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
FRONT WITH HIGHS NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE FOR
FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NE THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER ONCE AGAIN. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...EVEN BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED BETWEEN 2
AND  3 PM ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS WITH DRY CONVECTION. MOSTLY FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY FORECAST TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME POOR RECOVERY DOWN
SOUTH. COVERAGE OF DRY CONVECTION WILL EXPAND MONDAY TO INCLUDE
MOST OF OUR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...BUT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
LOW. SLIGHTLY DRIER/WARMER OVERALL TUESDAY AND CONTINUED UNSTABLE
WITH MORE DAYTIME HEATING-TRIGGERED DRY CONVECTION. INCREASING
WINDS FORECAST TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AND WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS AN UPTREND.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP DAY FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
EVENT ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID...IF OUR WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY INCREASES 2-3KTS MORE THEN WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CRITICAL
DAY AS WELL AND WE`LL END UP WITH AT LEAST A TWO DAY EVENT. BOTH
DAYS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HAINES VALUES OF 5-6...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...EXCELLENT MIXING AND SOME SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (ESPECIALLY THURSDAY). THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WINDIER DAY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVER OVER THE AREA WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CENTRAL AND NORTH. ANY POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL BE RELEGATED
TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH
ELEVATED CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE BEST BET WITH A DOWNTREND IN
WIND SPEEDS FORECAST. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO DRY...WARM AND UNSTABLE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 300539 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1139 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE

VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...AND SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER
THERE WILL BE SOME WIND IMPACTS. EASTERLY GAP/CANYON WIND DEVELOPED
AT KSAF AND KABQ EARLIER THIS EVENING AS A FRONT PUSHED INTO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY...BUT GUSTS ARE BEGINNING TO GRADUALLY DECREASE.
AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING WAS ISSUED AT KABQ FOR GUSTS TO 35 KT
EARLIER...BUT GUSTS SHOULD NOW STAY JUST BELOW THIS 35 KT
THRESHOLD GOING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTIATE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHER TERRAIN OF NEW MEXICO MONDAY AFTERNOON...AND THESE WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
RAINFALL WILL LARGELY BE EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE
GROUND...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT LOWERING TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY IS
ANTICIPATED WITH MONDAY`S SHOWERS/STORMS.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NO WIDESPREAD OE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH RAIN THOUGH WITH
GUSTY WINDS MORE OF A CONCERN. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY
AND WARM WITH INCREASING WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BRING COOLING
AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM BUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS MAKING
GOOD PROGRESS S AND W THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
LIGHTING DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RAIN. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE THOUGH. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NM.
MODERATE EAST CANYON WINDS WILL SPILL INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO HANG ON OVER NM MONDAY BUT DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AND ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS...PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AGAIN RAIN WILL BE SCARCE
WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER IN THE SE AND MILDER IN THE NE AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL FINALLY MOVE INLAND
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAKEN AND PASS S OF NM. ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE
MINIMAL BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY WITH W FLOW INCREASING
THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL BE DRY AND QUITE WARM. MAIN FOCUS WILL
BE ON FIRE WEATHER WHERE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
BY THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE FRIDAY
AND DROP A COLD FRONT S. ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
FRONT WITH HIGHS NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE FOR
FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NE THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER ONCE AGAIN. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...EVEN BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED BETWEEN 2
AND  3 PM ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS WITH DRY CONVECTION. MOSTLY FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY FORECAST TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME POOR RECOVERY DOWN
SOUTH. COVERAGE OF DRY CONVECTION WILL EXPAND MONDAY TO INCLUDE
MOST OF OUR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...BUT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
LOW. SLIGHTLY DRIER/WARMER OVERALL TUESDAY AND CONTINUED UNSTABLE
WITH MORE DAYTIME HEATING-TRIGGERED DRY CONVECTION. INCREASING
WINDS FORECAST TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AND WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS AN UPTREND.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP DAY FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
EVENT ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID...IF OUR WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY INCREASES 2-3KTS MORE THEN WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CRITICAL
DAY AS WELL AND WE`LL END UP WITH AT LEAST A TWO DAY EVENT. BOTH
DAYS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HAINES VALUES OF 5-6...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...EXCELLENT MIXING AND SOME SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (ESPECIALLY THURSDAY). THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WINDIER DAY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVER OVER THE AREA WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CENTRAL AND NORTH. ANY POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL BE RELEGATED
TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH
ELEVATED CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE BEST BET WITH A DOWNTREND IN
WIND SPEEDS FORECAST. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO DRY...WARM AND UNSTABLE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 300004 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
604 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AND THESE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL WIND
IMPACTS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL WILL
LARGELY BE EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...THUS NO
SIGNIFICANT LOWERING TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS. AN EASTERLY GAP/CANYON WIND WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT
KSAF AND KABQ EARLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED AT KABQ...AND
THUS AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NO WIDESPREAD OE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH RAIN THOUGH WITH
GUSTY WINDS MORE OF A CONCERN. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY
AND WARM WITH INCREASING WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BRING COOLING
AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM BUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS MAKING
GOOD PROGRESS S AND W THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
LIGHTING DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RAIN. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE THOUGH. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NM.
MODERATE EAST CANYON WINDS WILL SPILL INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO HANG ON OVER NM MONDAY BUT DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AND ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS...PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AGAIN RAIN WILL BE SCARCE
WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER IN THE SE AND MILDER IN THE NE AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL FINALLY MOVE INLAND
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAKEN AND PASS S OF NM. ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE
MINIMAL BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY WITH W FLOW INCREASING
THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL BE DRY AND QUITE WARM. MAIN FOCUS WILL
BE ON FIRE WEATHER WHERE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
BY THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE FRIDAY
AND DROP A COLD FRONT S. ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
FRONT WITH HIGHS NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE FOR
FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NE THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER ONCE AGAIN. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...EVEN BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED BETWEEN 2
AND  3 PM ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS WITH DRY CONVECTION. MOSTLY FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY FORECAST TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME POOR RECOVERY DOWN
SOUTH. COVERAGE OF DRY CONVECTION WILL EXPAND MONDAY TO INCLUDE
MOST OF OUR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...BUT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
LOW. SLIGHTLY DRIER/WARMER OVERALL TUESDAY AND CONTINUED UNSTABLE
WITH MORE DAYTIME HEATING-TRIGGERED DRY CONVECTION. INCREASING
WINDS FORECAST TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AND WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS AN UPTREND.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP DAY FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
EVENT ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID...IF OUR WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY INCREASES 2-3KTS MORE THEN WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CRITICAL
DAY AS WELL AND WE`LL END UP WITH AT LEAST A TWO DAY EVENT. BOTH
DAYS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HAINES VALUES OF 5-6...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...EXCELLENT MIXING AND SOME SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (ESPECIALLY THURSDAY). THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WINDIER DAY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVER OVER THE AREA WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CENTRAL AND NORTH. ANY POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL BE RELEGATED
TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH
ELEVATED CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE BEST BET WITH A DOWNTREND IN
WIND SPEEDS FORECAST. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO DRY...WARM AND UNSTABLE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 300004 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
604 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AND THESE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL WIND
IMPACTS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL WILL
LARGELY BE EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...THUS NO
SIGNIFICANT LOWERING TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS. AN EASTERLY GAP/CANYON WIND WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT
KSAF AND KABQ EARLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED AT KABQ...AND
THUS AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NO WIDESPREAD OE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH RAIN THOUGH WITH
GUSTY WINDS MORE OF A CONCERN. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY
AND WARM WITH INCREASING WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BRING COOLING
AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM BUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS MAKING
GOOD PROGRESS S AND W THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
LIGHTING DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RAIN. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE THOUGH. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NM.
MODERATE EAST CANYON WINDS WILL SPILL INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO HANG ON OVER NM MONDAY BUT DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AND ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS...PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AGAIN RAIN WILL BE SCARCE
WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER IN THE SE AND MILDER IN THE NE AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL FINALLY MOVE INLAND
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAKEN AND PASS S OF NM. ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE
MINIMAL BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY WITH W FLOW INCREASING
THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL BE DRY AND QUITE WARM. MAIN FOCUS WILL
BE ON FIRE WEATHER WHERE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
BY THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE FRIDAY
AND DROP A COLD FRONT S. ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
FRONT WITH HIGHS NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE FOR
FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NE THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER ONCE AGAIN. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...EVEN BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED BETWEEN 2
AND  3 PM ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS WITH DRY CONVECTION. MOSTLY FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY FORECAST TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME POOR RECOVERY DOWN
SOUTH. COVERAGE OF DRY CONVECTION WILL EXPAND MONDAY TO INCLUDE
MOST OF OUR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...BUT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
LOW. SLIGHTLY DRIER/WARMER OVERALL TUESDAY AND CONTINUED UNSTABLE
WITH MORE DAYTIME HEATING-TRIGGERED DRY CONVECTION. INCREASING
WINDS FORECAST TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AND WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS AN UPTREND.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP DAY FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
EVENT ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID...IF OUR WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY INCREASES 2-3KTS MORE THEN WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CRITICAL
DAY AS WELL AND WE`LL END UP WITH AT LEAST A TWO DAY EVENT. BOTH
DAYS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HAINES VALUES OF 5-6...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...EXCELLENT MIXING AND SOME SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (ESPECIALLY THURSDAY). THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WINDIER DAY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVER OVER THE AREA WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CENTRAL AND NORTH. ANY POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL BE RELEGATED
TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH
ELEVATED CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE BEST BET WITH A DOWNTREND IN
WIND SPEEDS FORECAST. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO DRY...WARM AND UNSTABLE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 300004 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
604 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AND THESE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL WIND
IMPACTS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL WILL
LARGELY BE EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...THUS NO
SIGNIFICANT LOWERING TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS. AN EASTERLY GAP/CANYON WIND WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT
KSAF AND KABQ EARLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED AT KABQ...AND
THUS AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NO WIDESPREAD OE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH RAIN THOUGH WITH
GUSTY WINDS MORE OF A CONCERN. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY
AND WARM WITH INCREASING WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BRING COOLING
AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM BUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS MAKING
GOOD PROGRESS S AND W THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
LIGHTING DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RAIN. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE THOUGH. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NM.
MODERATE EAST CANYON WINDS WILL SPILL INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO HANG ON OVER NM MONDAY BUT DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AND ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS...PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AGAIN RAIN WILL BE SCARCE
WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER IN THE SE AND MILDER IN THE NE AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL FINALLY MOVE INLAND
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAKEN AND PASS S OF NM. ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE
MINIMAL BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY WITH W FLOW INCREASING
THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL BE DRY AND QUITE WARM. MAIN FOCUS WILL
BE ON FIRE WEATHER WHERE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
BY THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE FRIDAY
AND DROP A COLD FRONT S. ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
FRONT WITH HIGHS NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE FOR
FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NE THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER ONCE AGAIN. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...EVEN BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED BETWEEN 2
AND  3 PM ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS WITH DRY CONVECTION. MOSTLY FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY FORECAST TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME POOR RECOVERY DOWN
SOUTH. COVERAGE OF DRY CONVECTION WILL EXPAND MONDAY TO INCLUDE
MOST OF OUR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...BUT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
LOW. SLIGHTLY DRIER/WARMER OVERALL TUESDAY AND CONTINUED UNSTABLE
WITH MORE DAYTIME HEATING-TRIGGERED DRY CONVECTION. INCREASING
WINDS FORECAST TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AND WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS AN UPTREND.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP DAY FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
EVENT ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID...IF OUR WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY INCREASES 2-3KTS MORE THEN WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CRITICAL
DAY AS WELL AND WE`LL END UP WITH AT LEAST A TWO DAY EVENT. BOTH
DAYS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HAINES VALUES OF 5-6...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...EXCELLENT MIXING AND SOME SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (ESPECIALLY THURSDAY). THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WINDIER DAY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVER OVER THE AREA WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CENTRAL AND NORTH. ANY POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL BE RELEGATED
TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH
ELEVATED CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE BEST BET WITH A DOWNTREND IN
WIND SPEEDS FORECAST. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO DRY...WARM AND UNSTABLE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 300004 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
604 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...AND THESE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH
THE NEXT 24 HOURS...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL WIND
IMPACTS. SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL WILL
LARGELY BE EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...THUS NO
SIGNIFICANT LOWERING TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS. AN EASTERLY GAP/CANYON WIND WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT
KSAF AND KABQ EARLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. SOME GUSTS UP TO 35 KT ARE EXPECTED AT KABQ...AND
THUS AN AVIATION WEATHER WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NO WIDESPREAD OE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH RAIN THOUGH WITH
GUSTY WINDS MORE OF A CONCERN. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY
AND WARM WITH INCREASING WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BRING COOLING
AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM BUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS MAKING
GOOD PROGRESS S AND W THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
LIGHTING DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RAIN. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE THOUGH. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NM.
MODERATE EAST CANYON WINDS WILL SPILL INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO HANG ON OVER NM MONDAY BUT DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AND ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS...PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AGAIN RAIN WILL BE SCARCE
WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER IN THE SE AND MILDER IN THE NE AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL FINALLY MOVE INLAND
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAKEN AND PASS S OF NM. ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE
MINIMAL BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY WITH W FLOW INCREASING
THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL BE DRY AND QUITE WARM. MAIN FOCUS WILL
BE ON FIRE WEATHER WHERE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
BY THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE FRIDAY
AND DROP A COLD FRONT S. ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
FRONT WITH HIGHS NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE FOR
FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NE THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER ONCE AGAIN. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...EVEN BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED BETWEEN 2
AND  3 PM ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS WITH DRY CONVECTION. MOSTLY FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY FORECAST TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME POOR RECOVERY DOWN
SOUTH. COVERAGE OF DRY CONVECTION WILL EXPAND MONDAY TO INCLUDE
MOST OF OUR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...BUT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
LOW. SLIGHTLY DRIER/WARMER OVERALL TUESDAY AND CONTINUED UNSTABLE
WITH MORE DAYTIME HEATING-TRIGGERED DRY CONVECTION. INCREASING
WINDS FORECAST TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AND WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS AN UPTREND.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP DAY FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
EVENT ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID...IF OUR WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY INCREASES 2-3KTS MORE THEN WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CRITICAL
DAY AS WELL AND WE`LL END UP WITH AT LEAST A TWO DAY EVENT. BOTH
DAYS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HAINES VALUES OF 5-6...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...EXCELLENT MIXING AND SOME SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (ESPECIALLY THURSDAY). THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WINDIER DAY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVER OVER THE AREA WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CENTRAL AND NORTH. ANY POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL BE RELEGATED
TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH
ELEVATED CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE BEST BET WITH A DOWNTREND IN
WIND SPEEDS FORECAST. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO DRY...WARM AND UNSTABLE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 292350
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
550 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...AND THESE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL WIND IMPACTS.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL WILL LARGELY BE
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT
LOWERING TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS. AN EASTERLY GAP/CANYON WIND WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT
KSAF AND KABQ EARLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED AT KABQ...AND
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED 35 KT
BETWEEN 30/0200 AND 30/0600UTC WHICH WOULD REQUIRE AN AVIATION
WEATHER WARNING. AT THIS POINT THE GUST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
VERY MARGINAL...BARELY MEETING THIS 35 KT THRESHOLD...BUT THIS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NO WIDESPREAD OE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH RAIN THOUGH WITH
GUSTY WINDS MORE OF A CONCERN. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY
AND WARM WITH INCREASING WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BRING COOLING
AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM BUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS MAKING
GOOD PROGRESS S AND W THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
LIGHTING DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RAIN. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE THOUGH. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NM.
MODERATE EAST CANYON WINDS WILL SPILL INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO HANG ON OVER NM MONDAY BUT DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AND ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS...PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AGAIN RAIN WILL BE SCARCE
WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER IN THE SE AND MILDER IN THE NE AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL FINALLY MOVE INLAND
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAKEN AND PASS S OF NM. ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE
MINIMAL BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY WITH W FLOW INCREASING
THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL BE DRY AND QUITE WARM. MAIN FOCUS WILL
BE ON FIRE WEATHER WHERE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
BY THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE FRIDAY
AND DROP A COLD FRONT S. ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
FRONT WITH HIGHS NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE FOR
FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NE THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER ONCE AGAIN. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...EVEN BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED BETWEEN 2
AND  3 PM ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS WITH DRY CONVECTION. MOSTLY FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY FORECAST TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME POOR RECOVERY DOWN
SOUTH. COVERAGE OF DRY CONVECTION WILL EXPAND MONDAY TO INCLUDE
MOST OF OUR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...BUT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
LOW. SLIGHTLY DRIER/WARMER OVERALL TUESDAY AND CONTINUED UNSTABLE
WITH MORE DAYTIME HEATING-TRIGGERED DRY CONVECTION. INCREASING
WINDS FORECAST TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AND WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS AN UPTREND.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP DAY FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
EVENT ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID...IF OUR WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY INCREASES 2-3KTS MORE THEN WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CRITICAL
DAY AS WELL AND WE`LL END UP WITH AT LEAST A TWO DAY EVENT. BOTH
DAYS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HAINES VALUES OF 5-6...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...EXCELLENT MIXING AND SOME SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (ESPECIALLY THURSDAY). THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WINDIER DAY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVER OVER THE AREA WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CENTRAL AND NORTH. ANY POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL BE RELEGATED
TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH
ELEVATED CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE BEST BET WITH A DOWNTREND IN
WIND SPEEDS FORECAST. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO DRY...WARM AND UNSTABLE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 292350
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
550 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...AND THESE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL WIND IMPACTS.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL WILL LARGELY BE
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT
LOWERING TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS. AN EASTERLY GAP/CANYON WIND WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT
KSAF AND KABQ EARLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED AT KABQ...AND
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED 35 KT
BETWEEN 30/0200 AND 30/0600UTC WHICH WOULD REQUIRE AN AVIATION
WEATHER WARNING. AT THIS POINT THE GUST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
VERY MARGINAL...BARELY MEETING THIS 35 KT THRESHOLD...BUT THIS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NO WIDESPREAD OE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH RAIN THOUGH WITH
GUSTY WINDS MORE OF A CONCERN. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY
AND WARM WITH INCREASING WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BRING COOLING
AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM BUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS MAKING
GOOD PROGRESS S AND W THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
LIGHTING DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RAIN. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE THOUGH. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NM.
MODERATE EAST CANYON WINDS WILL SPILL INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO HANG ON OVER NM MONDAY BUT DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AND ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS...PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AGAIN RAIN WILL BE SCARCE
WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER IN THE SE AND MILDER IN THE NE AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL FINALLY MOVE INLAND
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAKEN AND PASS S OF NM. ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE
MINIMAL BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY WITH W FLOW INCREASING
THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL BE DRY AND QUITE WARM. MAIN FOCUS WILL
BE ON FIRE WEATHER WHERE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
BY THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE FRIDAY
AND DROP A COLD FRONT S. ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
FRONT WITH HIGHS NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE FOR
FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NE THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER ONCE AGAIN. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...EVEN BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED BETWEEN 2
AND  3 PM ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS WITH DRY CONVECTION. MOSTLY FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY FORECAST TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME POOR RECOVERY DOWN
SOUTH. COVERAGE OF DRY CONVECTION WILL EXPAND MONDAY TO INCLUDE
MOST OF OUR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...BUT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
LOW. SLIGHTLY DRIER/WARMER OVERALL TUESDAY AND CONTINUED UNSTABLE
WITH MORE DAYTIME HEATING-TRIGGERED DRY CONVECTION. INCREASING
WINDS FORECAST TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AND WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS AN UPTREND.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP DAY FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
EVENT ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID...IF OUR WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY INCREASES 2-3KTS MORE THEN WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CRITICAL
DAY AS WELL AND WE`LL END UP WITH AT LEAST A TWO DAY EVENT. BOTH
DAYS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HAINES VALUES OF 5-6...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...EXCELLENT MIXING AND SOME SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (ESPECIALLY THURSDAY). THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WINDIER DAY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVER OVER THE AREA WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CENTRAL AND NORTH. ANY POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL BE RELEGATED
TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH
ELEVATED CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE BEST BET WITH A DOWNTREND IN
WIND SPEEDS FORECAST. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO DRY...WARM AND UNSTABLE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 292350
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
550 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...AND THESE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL WIND IMPACTS.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL WILL LARGELY BE
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT
LOWERING TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS. AN EASTERLY GAP/CANYON WIND WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT
KSAF AND KABQ EARLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED AT KABQ...AND
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED 35 KT
BETWEEN 30/0200 AND 30/0600UTC WHICH WOULD REQUIRE AN AVIATION
WEATHER WARNING. AT THIS POINT THE GUST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
VERY MARGINAL...BARELY MEETING THIS 35 KT THRESHOLD...BUT THIS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NO WIDESPREAD OE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH RAIN THOUGH WITH
GUSTY WINDS MORE OF A CONCERN. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY
AND WARM WITH INCREASING WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BRING COOLING
AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM BUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS MAKING
GOOD PROGRESS S AND W THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
LIGHTING DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RAIN. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE THOUGH. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NM.
MODERATE EAST CANYON WINDS WILL SPILL INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO HANG ON OVER NM MONDAY BUT DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AND ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS...PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AGAIN RAIN WILL BE SCARCE
WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER IN THE SE AND MILDER IN THE NE AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL FINALLY MOVE INLAND
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAKEN AND PASS S OF NM. ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE
MINIMAL BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY WITH W FLOW INCREASING
THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL BE DRY AND QUITE WARM. MAIN FOCUS WILL
BE ON FIRE WEATHER WHERE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
BY THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE FRIDAY
AND DROP A COLD FRONT S. ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
FRONT WITH HIGHS NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE FOR
FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NE THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER ONCE AGAIN. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...EVEN BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED BETWEEN 2
AND  3 PM ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS WITH DRY CONVECTION. MOSTLY FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY FORECAST TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME POOR RECOVERY DOWN
SOUTH. COVERAGE OF DRY CONVECTION WILL EXPAND MONDAY TO INCLUDE
MOST OF OUR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...BUT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
LOW. SLIGHTLY DRIER/WARMER OVERALL TUESDAY AND CONTINUED UNSTABLE
WITH MORE DAYTIME HEATING-TRIGGERED DRY CONVECTION. INCREASING
WINDS FORECAST TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AND WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS AN UPTREND.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP DAY FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
EVENT ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID...IF OUR WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY INCREASES 2-3KTS MORE THEN WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CRITICAL
DAY AS WELL AND WE`LL END UP WITH AT LEAST A TWO DAY EVENT. BOTH
DAYS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HAINES VALUES OF 5-6...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...EXCELLENT MIXING AND SOME SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (ESPECIALLY THURSDAY). THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WINDIER DAY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVER OVER THE AREA WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CENTRAL AND NORTH. ANY POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL BE RELEGATED
TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH
ELEVATED CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE BEST BET WITH A DOWNTREND IN
WIND SPEEDS FORECAST. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO DRY...WARM AND UNSTABLE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 292350
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
550 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...AND THESE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL WIND IMPACTS.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL WILL LARGELY BE
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT
LOWERING TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS. AN EASTERLY GAP/CANYON WIND WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT
KSAF AND KABQ EARLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED AT KABQ...AND
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED 35 KT
BETWEEN 30/0200 AND 30/0600UTC WHICH WOULD REQUIRE AN AVIATION
WEATHER WARNING. AT THIS POINT THE GUST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
VERY MARGINAL...BARELY MEETING THIS 35 KT THRESHOLD...BUT THIS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NO WIDESPREAD OE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH RAIN THOUGH WITH
GUSTY WINDS MORE OF A CONCERN. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY
AND WARM WITH INCREASING WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BRING COOLING
AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM BUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS MAKING
GOOD PROGRESS S AND W THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
LIGHTING DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RAIN. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE THOUGH. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NM.
MODERATE EAST CANYON WINDS WILL SPILL INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO HANG ON OVER NM MONDAY BUT DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AND ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS...PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AGAIN RAIN WILL BE SCARCE
WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER IN THE SE AND MILDER IN THE NE AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL FINALLY MOVE INLAND
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAKEN AND PASS S OF NM. ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE
MINIMAL BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY WITH W FLOW INCREASING
THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL BE DRY AND QUITE WARM. MAIN FOCUS WILL
BE ON FIRE WEATHER WHERE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
BY THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE FRIDAY
AND DROP A COLD FRONT S. ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
FRONT WITH HIGHS NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE FOR
FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NE THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER ONCE AGAIN. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...EVEN BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED BETWEEN 2
AND  3 PM ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS WITH DRY CONVECTION. MOSTLY FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY FORECAST TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME POOR RECOVERY DOWN
SOUTH. COVERAGE OF DRY CONVECTION WILL EXPAND MONDAY TO INCLUDE
MOST OF OUR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...BUT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
LOW. SLIGHTLY DRIER/WARMER OVERALL TUESDAY AND CONTINUED UNSTABLE
WITH MORE DAYTIME HEATING-TRIGGERED DRY CONVECTION. INCREASING
WINDS FORECAST TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AND WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS AN UPTREND.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP DAY FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
EVENT ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID...IF OUR WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY INCREASES 2-3KTS MORE THEN WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CRITICAL
DAY AS WELL AND WE`LL END UP WITH AT LEAST A TWO DAY EVENT. BOTH
DAYS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HAINES VALUES OF 5-6...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...EXCELLENT MIXING AND SOME SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (ESPECIALLY THURSDAY). THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WINDIER DAY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVER OVER THE AREA WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CENTRAL AND NORTH. ANY POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL BE RELEGATED
TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH
ELEVATED CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE BEST BET WITH A DOWNTREND IN
WIND SPEEDS FORECAST. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO DRY...WARM AND UNSTABLE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 292350
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
550 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...AND THESE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL WIND IMPACTS.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL WILL LARGELY BE
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT
LOWERING TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS. AN EASTERLY GAP/CANYON WIND WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT
KSAF AND KABQ EARLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED AT KABQ...AND
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED 35 KT
BETWEEN 30/0200 AND 30/0600UTC WHICH WOULD REQUIRE AN AVIATION
WEATHER WARNING. AT THIS POINT THE GUST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
VERY MARGINAL...BARELY MEETING THIS 35 KT THRESHOLD...BUT THIS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NO WIDESPREAD OE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH RAIN THOUGH WITH
GUSTY WINDS MORE OF A CONCERN. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY
AND WARM WITH INCREASING WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BRING COOLING
AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM BUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS MAKING
GOOD PROGRESS S AND W THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
LIGHTING DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RAIN. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE THOUGH. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NM.
MODERATE EAST CANYON WINDS WILL SPILL INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO HANG ON OVER NM MONDAY BUT DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AND ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS...PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AGAIN RAIN WILL BE SCARCE
WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER IN THE SE AND MILDER IN THE NE AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL FINALLY MOVE INLAND
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAKEN AND PASS S OF NM. ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE
MINIMAL BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY WITH W FLOW INCREASING
THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL BE DRY AND QUITE WARM. MAIN FOCUS WILL
BE ON FIRE WEATHER WHERE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
BY THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE FRIDAY
AND DROP A COLD FRONT S. ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
FRONT WITH HIGHS NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE FOR
FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NE THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER ONCE AGAIN. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...EVEN BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED BETWEEN 2
AND  3 PM ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS WITH DRY CONVECTION. MOSTLY FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY FORECAST TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME POOR RECOVERY DOWN
SOUTH. COVERAGE OF DRY CONVECTION WILL EXPAND MONDAY TO INCLUDE
MOST OF OUR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...BUT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
LOW. SLIGHTLY DRIER/WARMER OVERALL TUESDAY AND CONTINUED UNSTABLE
WITH MORE DAYTIME HEATING-TRIGGERED DRY CONVECTION. INCREASING
WINDS FORECAST TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AND WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS AN UPTREND.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP DAY FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
EVENT ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID...IF OUR WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY INCREASES 2-3KTS MORE THEN WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CRITICAL
DAY AS WELL AND WE`LL END UP WITH AT LEAST A TWO DAY EVENT. BOTH
DAYS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HAINES VALUES OF 5-6...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...EXCELLENT MIXING AND SOME SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (ESPECIALLY THURSDAY). THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WINDIER DAY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVER OVER THE AREA WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CENTRAL AND NORTH. ANY POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL BE RELEGATED
TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH
ELEVATED CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE BEST BET WITH A DOWNTREND IN
WIND SPEEDS FORECAST. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO DRY...WARM AND UNSTABLE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 292350
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
550 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO...AND THESE SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH THE NEXT 24
HOURS...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE SOME POTENTIAL WIND IMPACTS.
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LOCALIZED
GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. RAINFALL WILL LARGELY BE
EVAPORATING BEFORE REACHING THE GROUND...THUS NO SIGNIFICANT
LOWERING TO CEILINGS OR VISIBILITY IS ANTICIPATED WITH
SHOWERS/STORMS. AN EASTERLY GAP/CANYON WIND WILL ALSO DEVELOP AT
KSAF AND KABQ EARLY THIS EVENING AS A FRONT PUSHES INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY. SOME GUSTS UP TO 30 KT ARE EXPECTED AT KABQ...AND
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT GUSTS MAY BRIEFLY EXCEED 35 KT
BETWEEN 30/0200 AND 30/0600UTC WHICH WOULD REQUIRE AN AVIATION
WEATHER WARNING. AT THIS POINT THE GUST POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
VERY MARGINAL...BARELY MEETING THIS 35 KT THRESHOLD...BUT THIS
WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...303 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
NO WIDESPREAD OE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH RAIN THOUGH WITH
GUSTY WINDS MORE OF A CONCERN. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY
AND WARM WITH INCREASING WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BRING COOLING
AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM BUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS MAKING
GOOD PROGRESS S AND W THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
LIGHTING DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RAIN. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE THOUGH. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NM.
MODERATE EAST CANYON WINDS WILL SPILL INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO HANG ON OVER NM MONDAY BUT DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AND ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS...PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AGAIN RAIN WILL BE SCARCE
WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER IN THE SE AND MILDER IN THE NE AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL FINALLY MOVE INLAND
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAKEN AND PASS S OF NM. ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE
MINIMAL BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY WITH W FLOW INCREASING
THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL BE DRY AND QUITE WARM. MAIN FOCUS WILL
BE ON FIRE WEATHER WHERE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
BY THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE FRIDAY
AND DROP A COLD FRONT S. ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
FRONT WITH HIGHS NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE FOR
FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NE THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER ONCE AGAIN. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...EVEN BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED BETWEEN 2
AND  3 PM ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS WITH DRY CONVECTION. MOSTLY FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY FORECAST TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME POOR RECOVERY DOWN
SOUTH. COVERAGE OF DRY CONVECTION WILL EXPAND MONDAY TO INCLUDE
MOST OF OUR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...BUT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
LOW. SLIGHTLY DRIER/WARMER OVERALL TUESDAY AND CONTINUED UNSTABLE
WITH MORE DAYTIME HEATING-TRIGGERED DRY CONVECTION. INCREASING
WINDS FORECAST TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AND WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS AN UPTREND.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP DAY FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
EVENT ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID...IF OUR WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY INCREASES 2-3KTS MORE THEN WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CRITICAL
DAY AS WELL AND WE`LL END UP WITH AT LEAST A TWO DAY EVENT. BOTH
DAYS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HAINES VALUES OF 5-6...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...EXCELLENT MIXING AND SOME SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (ESPECIALLY THURSDAY). THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WINDIER DAY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVER OVER THE AREA WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CENTRAL AND NORTH. ANY POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL BE RELEGATED
TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH
ELEVATED CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE BEST BET WITH A DOWNTREND IN
WIND SPEEDS FORECAST. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO DRY...WARM AND UNSTABLE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 292103
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
303 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO WIDESPREAD OE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH RAIN THOUGH WITH
GUSTY WINDS MORE OF A CONCERN. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY
AND WARM WITH INCREASING WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BRING COOLING
AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM BUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS MAKING
GOOD PROGRESS S AND W THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
LIGHTING DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RAIN. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE THOUGH. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NM.
MODERATE EAST CANYON WINDS WILL SPILL INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO HANG ON OVER NM MONDAY BUT DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AND ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS...PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AGAIN RAIN WILL BE SCARCE
WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER IN THE SE AND MILDER IN THE NE AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL FINALLY MOVE INLAND
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAKEN AND PASS S OF NM. ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE
MINIMAL BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY WITH W FLOW INCREASING
THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL BE DRY AND QUITE WARM. MAIN FOCUS WILL
BE ON FIRE WEATHER WHERE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
BY THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE FRIDAY
AND DROP A COLD FRONT S. ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
FRONT WITH HIGHS NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE FOR
FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NE THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER ONCE AGAIN. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...EVEN BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED BETWEEN 2
AND  3 PM ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS WITH DRY CONVECTION. MOSTLY FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY FORECAST TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME POOR RECOVERY DOWN
SOUTH. COVERAGE OF DRY CONVECTION WILL EXPAND MONDAY TO INCLUDE
MOST OF OUR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...BUT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
LOW. SLIGHTLY DRIER/WARMER OVERALL TUESDAY AND CONTINUED UNSTABLE
WITH MORE DAYTIME HEATING-TRIGGERED DRY CONVECTION. INCREASING
WINDS FORECAST TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AND WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS AN UPTREND.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP DAY FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
EVENT ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID...IF OUR WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY INCREASES 2-3KTS MORE THEN WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CRITICAL
DAY AS WELL AND WE`LL END UP WITH AT LEAST A TWO DAY EVENT. BOTH
DAYS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HAINES VALUES OF 5-6...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...EXCELLENT MIXING AND SOME SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (ESPECIALLY THURSDAY). THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WINDIER DAY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVER OVER THE AREA WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CENTRAL AND NORTH. ANY POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL BE RELEGATED
TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH
ELEVATED CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE BEST BET WITH A DOWNTREND IN
WIND SPEEDS FORECAST. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO DRY...WARM AND UNSTABLE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
POTENTIAL WIND IMPACTS. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AT KTCC CURRENTLY
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS
AFTERNOON. AN EASTERLY GAP/CANYON WIND WILL DEVELOP AT KABQ THIS
EVENING...AND MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
(GUSTS GREATER THAN 26KTS). A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND MAY
MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF KLVS...AND POSSIBLY KSAF. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF
WET RUNWAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  38  76  37  77 /   0   5   0   0
DULCE...........................  29  72  30  71 /   5   5   5   5
CUBA............................  35  71  34  72 /   0   5   5   5
GALLUP..........................  28  75  30  74 /   0   5   0   0
EL MORRO........................  31  70  34  70 /   0  10  10   0
GRANTS..........................  31  73  32  74 /   0  10   5   0
QUEMADO.........................  36  69  36  70 /   0  10   5   0
GLENWOOD........................  44  79  43  77 /   0  10  10   0
CHAMA...........................  28  67  30  66 /  10  10  10   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  40  68  41  70 /   5  10  10   5
PECOS...........................  38  69  39  71 /   5  10   5  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  30  69  30  69 /  20  10  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  29  60  29  60 /  20  20  20  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  28  63  29  64 /  20  20  10  10
TAOS............................  32  70  32  70 /  10  10   5   5
MORA............................  35  68  36  70 /  10  10  10  10
ESPANOLA........................  41  75  41  76 /   0   5   5   5
SANTA FE........................  40  69  40  71 /   0  10   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  37  74  38  75 /   0   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  47  74  44  76 /   0   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  48  77  47  79 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  45  79  45  80 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  47  79  45  80 /   0   5   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  42  79  44  81 /   0   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  47  77  45  79 /   0   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  49  79  46  81 /   0   5   5   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  40  70  41  72 /   0  10   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  41  74  42  75 /   0  10   5   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  35  72  37  74 /   0  10  10   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  39  70  39  73 /   0  10  10   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  41  72  42  73 /   0  10  10   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  45  75  45  76 /   0  10   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  43  70  44  71 /   0  10  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  35  72  38  74 /  20  10  10   5
RATON...........................  34  76  35  77 /  10  10   5   5
SPRINGER........................  35  74  36  76 /  10  10   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  35  72  38  74 /  10  10  10   5
CLAYTON.........................  39  79  46  82 /   5   5   0   5
ROY.............................  36  75  40  79 /   5   5   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  44  78  47  83 /   0   5   0   5
SANTA ROSA......................  42  76  45  81 /   0   5   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  42  82  47  85 /   0   5   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  42  78  47  82 /   0   5   0  10
PORTALES........................  42  78  47  82 /   0   5   0  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  44  77  47  83 /   0   5   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  47  78  48  86 /   0   5   5  10
PICACHO.........................  45  73  47  79 /   0  10  10  10
ELK.............................  45  70  46  74 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40





000
FXUS65 KABQ 292103
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
303 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
NO WIDESPREAD OE SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
THERE WILL BE A FEW OPPORTUNITIES FOR SHOWERS AND A FEW AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS...INCLUDING THROUGH TUESDAY...MAINLY
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH RAIN THOUGH WITH
GUSTY WINDS MORE OF A CONCERN. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BE DRY
AND WARM WITH INCREASING WINDS AND CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND BACK DOOR FRONT WILL BRING COOLING
AND ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NM BUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS MAKING
GOOD PROGRESS S AND W THIS AFTERNOON. A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN SOME
LIGHTING DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH
THIS EVENING BUT WILL PRODUCE LITTLE RAIN. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE THOUGH. OTHERWISE HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS NM.
MODERATE EAST CANYON WINDS WILL SPILL INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
LATER TONIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE WILL TRY TO HANG ON OVER NM MONDAY BUT DECENT
INSTABILITY WILL EXIST AND ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BUILDUPS...PRIMARILY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. AGAIN RAIN WILL BE SCARCE
WITH GUSTY WINDS THE MAIN CONCERN. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER IN THE SE AND MILDER IN THE NE AND LITTLE CHANGE ELSEWHERE.

THE CLOSED LOW OFF THE BAJA CA COAST WILL FINALLY MOVE INLAND
MONDAY NIGHT...WEAKEN AND PASS S OF NM. ITS INFLUENCE WILL BE
MINIMAL BUT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN MODESTLY UNSTABLE WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS...AGAIN MOSTLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TUESDAY WILL BE WARMER WITH HIGHS WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY WEDNESDAY WITH W FLOW INCREASING
THROUGH THURSDAY. IT WILL BE DRY AND QUITE WARM. MAIN FOCUS WILL
BE ON FIRE WEATHER WHERE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
BY THURSDAY. A SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS N OF THE STATE FRIDAY
AND DROP A COLD FRONT S. ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE SHORT WAVE AND
FRONT WITH HIGHS NOTICEABLY COLDER THAN THE GFS GUIDANCE FOR
FRIDAY. FOR NOW WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE. COOLER FOR MOST AREAS
FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FAR NE THROUGH SATURDAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE DRY AND WARMER ONCE AGAIN. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AGAIN TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL...EVEN BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. A FEW CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES NOTED BETWEEN 2
AND  3 PM ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRES AND OVER THE
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS WITH DRY CONVECTION. MOSTLY FAIR HUMIDITY
RECOVERY FORECAST TONIGHT...EXCEPT FOR SOME POOR RECOVERY DOWN
SOUTH. COVERAGE OF DRY CONVECTION WILL EXPAND MONDAY TO INCLUDE
MOST OF OUR MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...BUT LIGHTNING ACTIVITY WILL REMAIN
LOW. SLIGHTLY DRIER/WARMER OVERALL TUESDAY AND CONTINUED UNSTABLE
WITH MORE DAYTIME HEATING-TRIGGERED DRY CONVECTION. INCREASING
WINDS FORECAST TUESDAY AS A TROUGH MOVES EAST...MAINLY SOUTH OF
THE AREA...AND WESTERLY FLOW BEGINS AN UPTREND.

WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE THE SETUP DAY FOR A CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
EVENT ON THURSDAY. THAT SAID...IF OUR WIND SPEED FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY INCREASES 2-3KTS MORE THEN WEDNESDAY WILL BE A CRITICAL
DAY AS WELL AND WE`LL END UP WITH AT LEAST A TWO DAY EVENT. BOTH
DAYS WILL BE CHARACTERIZED BY HAINES VALUES OF 5-6...WELL ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES...EXCELLENT MIXING AND SOME SINGLE DIGIT
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES (ESPECIALLY THURSDAY). THURSDAY WILL BE THE
WINDIER DAY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MOVER OVER THE AREA WITH THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE
CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH FRIDAY...BRINGING TEMPERATURES DOWN
TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL CENTRAL AND NORTH. ANY POTENTIAL
FOR CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ON FRIDAY WILL BE RELEGATED
TO THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AND LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY...ALTHOUGH
ELEVATED CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE THE BEST BET WITH A DOWNTREND IN
WIND SPEEDS FORECAST. MORE STABLE CONDITIONS WILL LINGER INTO
SATURDAY BEFORE TRANSITIONING BACK TO DRY...WARM AND UNSTABLE BY
THE END OF NEXT WEEKEND. 11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
POTENTIAL WIND IMPACTS. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AT KTCC CURRENTLY
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS
AFTERNOON. AN EASTERLY GAP/CANYON WIND WILL DEVELOP AT KABQ THIS
EVENING...AND MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
(GUSTS GREATER THAN 26KTS). A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND MAY
MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF KLVS...AND POSSIBLY KSAF. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF
WET RUNWAYS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  38  76  37  77 /   0   5   0   0
DULCE...........................  29  72  30  71 /   5   5   5   5
CUBA............................  35  71  34  72 /   0   5   5   5
GALLUP..........................  28  75  30  74 /   0   5   0   0
EL MORRO........................  31  70  34  70 /   0  10  10   0
GRANTS..........................  31  73  32  74 /   0  10   5   0
QUEMADO.........................  36  69  36  70 /   0  10   5   0
GLENWOOD........................  44  79  43  77 /   0  10  10   0
CHAMA...........................  28  67  30  66 /  10  10  10   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  40  68  41  70 /   5  10  10   5
PECOS...........................  38  69  39  71 /   5  10   5  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  30  69  30  69 /  20  10  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  29  60  29  60 /  20  20  20  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  28  63  29  64 /  20  20  10  10
TAOS............................  32  70  32  70 /  10  10   5   5
MORA............................  35  68  36  70 /  10  10  10  10
ESPANOLA........................  41  75  41  76 /   0   5   5   5
SANTA FE........................  40  69  40  71 /   0  10   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  37  74  38  75 /   0   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  47  74  44  76 /   0   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  48  77  47  79 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  45  79  45  80 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  47  79  45  80 /   0   5   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  42  79  44  81 /   0   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  47  77  45  79 /   0   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  49  79  46  81 /   0   5   5   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  40  70  41  72 /   0  10   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  41  74  42  75 /   0  10   5   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  35  72  37  74 /   0  10  10   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  39  70  39  73 /   0  10  10   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  41  72  42  73 /   0  10  10   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  45  75  45  76 /   0  10   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  43  70  44  71 /   0  10  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  35  72  38  74 /  20  10  10   5
RATON...........................  34  76  35  77 /  10  10   5   5
SPRINGER........................  35  74  36  76 /  10  10   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  35  72  38  74 /  10  10  10   5
CLAYTON.........................  39  79  46  82 /   5   5   0   5
ROY.............................  36  75  40  79 /   5   5   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  44  78  47  83 /   0   5   0   5
SANTA ROSA......................  42  76  45  81 /   0   5   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  42  82  47  85 /   0   5   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  42  78  47  82 /   0   5   0  10
PORTALES........................  42  78  47  82 /   0   5   0  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  44  77  47  83 /   0   5   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  47  78  48  86 /   0   5   5  10
PICACHO.........................  45  73  47  79 /   0  10  10  10
ELK.............................  45  70  46  74 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40






000
FXUS65 KABQ 291725 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1125 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
POTENTIAL WIND IMPACTS. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AT KTCC CURRENTLY
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS
AFTERNOON. AN EASTERLY GAP/CANYON WIND WILL DEVELOP AT KABQ THIS
EVENING...AND MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
(GUSTS GREATER THAN 26KTS). A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND MAY
MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF KLVS...AND POSSIBLY KSAF. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF
WET RUNWAYS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...338 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN STILL LOOKS PREDOMINANTLY DRY THROUGH MOST OF THIS NEW
WEEK...BUT WINDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS OF THE
SEASON WILL WHIP INTO THE AREA...LIKELY CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN DROPPING CLOSE TO AND IN SOME CASES A LITTLE
BELOW THE NORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE ERN
PLAINS TODAY...BRINGING SOME COOLING FOR MOST OF THE EAST WHILE
STAYING ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMS. WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING TO
NORTH AND THE BACK DOOR FRONT BRINGING MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SANGRES AND NORTHEAST HIGH TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY TO BE MOSTLY DRY...THOUGH VIRGA
INDUCED WIND GUSTS MAY WELL BE AN ISSUE. ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS SOUTH AND NORTH OF OUR AREA MON INTO TUE
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CREATE A FEW HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THE MAJORITY STILL DRY THOUGH. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WED
AND THU WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WINDS.

STILL BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY FRI AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
GENERALLY SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY COOLER. FCST MODELS DISAGREE ON
WHETHER ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS ACROSS THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH THE GFS SAYING YAY AND THE ECMWF SAYING NAY. NO WAY.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
NM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN GUSTY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING...AND THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN SOME
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHILE ADDING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE EAST FACES
OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. THUS...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH STILL
VERY LITTLE PROBABILITY FOR TRUE WETTING PRECIPITATION. BY THIS
EVENING THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE WESTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO THE WEST WHILE A
BRIEF GUSTY GAP/CANYON WIND SQUEEZES BEYOND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL CREEP UP CONSIDERABLY IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
THE FRONT.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND TOWARD THE
BAJA BY MONDAY...ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BE
JUXTAPOSED OVER NM. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED WITH LOW WETTING RAIN PROBABILITIES. SURFACE WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BE SHIFTING SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY...BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...AND RH WILL BE LOWEST IN THE WESTERN ZONES AT LESS THAN 10
PERCENT.

THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE BAJA TO THE MEXICAN
MAINLAND APPEARS TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FEATURE JUST MAKING IT TO THE
BIG BEND AREA BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INTACT OVER NM FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
TRANQUIL...AND TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MORE DYNAMIC AND CRITICAL PERIOD APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TURNS STRONGER WITH A CYCLIC LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH...DEEP VERTICAL MIXING...AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES HELPING TO SPREAD WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS NM. HIGH HAINES INDICES ARE ALSO PRESENT THESE DAYS. SOME
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THESE CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO LAST INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW SHOWING A COLD FRONT INVADING
EASTERN ZONES WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS THAT COULD IMPEDE MIXING IN
THE WESTERN ZONES.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40






000
FXUS65 KABQ 291725 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1125 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
POTENTIAL WIND IMPACTS. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AT KTCC CURRENTLY
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS
AFTERNOON. AN EASTERLY GAP/CANYON WIND WILL DEVELOP AT KABQ THIS
EVENING...AND MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
(GUSTS GREATER THAN 26KTS). A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND MAY
MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF KLVS...AND POSSIBLY KSAF. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF
WET RUNWAYS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...338 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN STILL LOOKS PREDOMINANTLY DRY THROUGH MOST OF THIS NEW
WEEK...BUT WINDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS OF THE
SEASON WILL WHIP INTO THE AREA...LIKELY CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN DROPPING CLOSE TO AND IN SOME CASES A LITTLE
BELOW THE NORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE ERN
PLAINS TODAY...BRINGING SOME COOLING FOR MOST OF THE EAST WHILE
STAYING ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMS. WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING TO
NORTH AND THE BACK DOOR FRONT BRINGING MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SANGRES AND NORTHEAST HIGH TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY TO BE MOSTLY DRY...THOUGH VIRGA
INDUCED WIND GUSTS MAY WELL BE AN ISSUE. ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS SOUTH AND NORTH OF OUR AREA MON INTO TUE
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CREATE A FEW HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THE MAJORITY STILL DRY THOUGH. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WED
AND THU WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WINDS.

STILL BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY FRI AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
GENERALLY SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY COOLER. FCST MODELS DISAGREE ON
WHETHER ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS ACROSS THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH THE GFS SAYING YAY AND THE ECMWF SAYING NAY. NO WAY.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
NM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN GUSTY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING...AND THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN SOME
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHILE ADDING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE EAST FACES
OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. THUS...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH STILL
VERY LITTLE PROBABILITY FOR TRUE WETTING PRECIPITATION. BY THIS
EVENING THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE WESTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO THE WEST WHILE A
BRIEF GUSTY GAP/CANYON WIND SQUEEZES BEYOND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL CREEP UP CONSIDERABLY IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
THE FRONT.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND TOWARD THE
BAJA BY MONDAY...ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BE
JUXTAPOSED OVER NM. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED WITH LOW WETTING RAIN PROBABILITIES. SURFACE WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BE SHIFTING SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY...BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...AND RH WILL BE LOWEST IN THE WESTERN ZONES AT LESS THAN 10
PERCENT.

THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE BAJA TO THE MEXICAN
MAINLAND APPEARS TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FEATURE JUST MAKING IT TO THE
BIG BEND AREA BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INTACT OVER NM FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
TRANQUIL...AND TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MORE DYNAMIC AND CRITICAL PERIOD APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TURNS STRONGER WITH A CYCLIC LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH...DEEP VERTICAL MIXING...AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES HELPING TO SPREAD WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS NM. HIGH HAINES INDICES ARE ALSO PRESENT THESE DAYS. SOME
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THESE CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO LAST INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW SHOWING A COLD FRONT INVADING
EASTERN ZONES WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS THAT COULD IMPEDE MIXING IN
THE WESTERN ZONES.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40






000
FXUS65 KABQ 291725 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1125 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
POTENTIAL WIND IMPACTS. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AT KTCC CURRENTLY
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS
AFTERNOON. AN EASTERLY GAP/CANYON WIND WILL DEVELOP AT KABQ THIS
EVENING...AND MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
(GUSTS GREATER THAN 26KTS). A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND MAY
MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF KLVS...AND POSSIBLY KSAF. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF
WET RUNWAYS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...338 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN STILL LOOKS PREDOMINANTLY DRY THROUGH MOST OF THIS NEW
WEEK...BUT WINDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS OF THE
SEASON WILL WHIP INTO THE AREA...LIKELY CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN DROPPING CLOSE TO AND IN SOME CASES A LITTLE
BELOW THE NORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE ERN
PLAINS TODAY...BRINGING SOME COOLING FOR MOST OF THE EAST WHILE
STAYING ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMS. WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING TO
NORTH AND THE BACK DOOR FRONT BRINGING MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SANGRES AND NORTHEAST HIGH TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY TO BE MOSTLY DRY...THOUGH VIRGA
INDUCED WIND GUSTS MAY WELL BE AN ISSUE. ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS SOUTH AND NORTH OF OUR AREA MON INTO TUE
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CREATE A FEW HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THE MAJORITY STILL DRY THOUGH. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WED
AND THU WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WINDS.

STILL BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY FRI AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
GENERALLY SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY COOLER. FCST MODELS DISAGREE ON
WHETHER ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS ACROSS THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH THE GFS SAYING YAY AND THE ECMWF SAYING NAY. NO WAY.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
NM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN GUSTY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING...AND THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN SOME
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHILE ADDING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE EAST FACES
OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. THUS...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH STILL
VERY LITTLE PROBABILITY FOR TRUE WETTING PRECIPITATION. BY THIS
EVENING THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE WESTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO THE WEST WHILE A
BRIEF GUSTY GAP/CANYON WIND SQUEEZES BEYOND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL CREEP UP CONSIDERABLY IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
THE FRONT.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND TOWARD THE
BAJA BY MONDAY...ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BE
JUXTAPOSED OVER NM. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED WITH LOW WETTING RAIN PROBABILITIES. SURFACE WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BE SHIFTING SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY...BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...AND RH WILL BE LOWEST IN THE WESTERN ZONES AT LESS THAN 10
PERCENT.

THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE BAJA TO THE MEXICAN
MAINLAND APPEARS TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FEATURE JUST MAKING IT TO THE
BIG BEND AREA BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INTACT OVER NM FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
TRANQUIL...AND TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MORE DYNAMIC AND CRITICAL PERIOD APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TURNS STRONGER WITH A CYCLIC LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH...DEEP VERTICAL MIXING...AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES HELPING TO SPREAD WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS NM. HIGH HAINES INDICES ARE ALSO PRESENT THESE DAYS. SOME
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THESE CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO LAST INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW SHOWING A COLD FRONT INVADING
EASTERN ZONES WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS THAT COULD IMPEDE MIXING IN
THE WESTERN ZONES.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40






000
FXUS65 KABQ 291725 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1125 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
POTENTIAL WIND IMPACTS. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AT KTCC CURRENTLY
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS
AFTERNOON. AN EASTERLY GAP/CANYON WIND WILL DEVELOP AT KABQ THIS
EVENING...AND MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
(GUSTS GREATER THAN 26KTS). A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND MAY
MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF KLVS...AND POSSIBLY KSAF. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF
WET RUNWAYS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...338 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN STILL LOOKS PREDOMINANTLY DRY THROUGH MOST OF THIS NEW
WEEK...BUT WINDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS OF THE
SEASON WILL WHIP INTO THE AREA...LIKELY CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN DROPPING CLOSE TO AND IN SOME CASES A LITTLE
BELOW THE NORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE ERN
PLAINS TODAY...BRINGING SOME COOLING FOR MOST OF THE EAST WHILE
STAYING ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMS. WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING TO
NORTH AND THE BACK DOOR FRONT BRINGING MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SANGRES AND NORTHEAST HIGH TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY TO BE MOSTLY DRY...THOUGH VIRGA
INDUCED WIND GUSTS MAY WELL BE AN ISSUE. ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS SOUTH AND NORTH OF OUR AREA MON INTO TUE
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CREATE A FEW HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THE MAJORITY STILL DRY THOUGH. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WED
AND THU WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WINDS.

STILL BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY FRI AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
GENERALLY SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY COOLER. FCST MODELS DISAGREE ON
WHETHER ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS ACROSS THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH THE GFS SAYING YAY AND THE ECMWF SAYING NAY. NO WAY.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
NM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN GUSTY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING...AND THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN SOME
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHILE ADDING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE EAST FACES
OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. THUS...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH STILL
VERY LITTLE PROBABILITY FOR TRUE WETTING PRECIPITATION. BY THIS
EVENING THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE WESTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO THE WEST WHILE A
BRIEF GUSTY GAP/CANYON WIND SQUEEZES BEYOND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL CREEP UP CONSIDERABLY IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
THE FRONT.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND TOWARD THE
BAJA BY MONDAY...ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BE
JUXTAPOSED OVER NM. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED WITH LOW WETTING RAIN PROBABILITIES. SURFACE WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BE SHIFTING SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY...BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...AND RH WILL BE LOWEST IN THE WESTERN ZONES AT LESS THAN 10
PERCENT.

THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE BAJA TO THE MEXICAN
MAINLAND APPEARS TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FEATURE JUST MAKING IT TO THE
BIG BEND AREA BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INTACT OVER NM FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
TRANQUIL...AND TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MORE DYNAMIC AND CRITICAL PERIOD APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TURNS STRONGER WITH A CYCLIC LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH...DEEP VERTICAL MIXING...AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES HELPING TO SPREAD WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS NM. HIGH HAINES INDICES ARE ALSO PRESENT THESE DAYS. SOME
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THESE CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO LAST INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW SHOWING A COLD FRONT INVADING
EASTERN ZONES WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS THAT COULD IMPEDE MIXING IN
THE WESTERN ZONES.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40






000
FXUS65 KABQ 291725 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1125 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
POTENTIAL WIND IMPACTS. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AT KTCC CURRENTLY
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS
AFTERNOON. AN EASTERLY GAP/CANYON WIND WILL DEVELOP AT KABQ THIS
EVENING...AND MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
(GUSTS GREATER THAN 26KTS). A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND MAY
MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF KLVS...AND POSSIBLY KSAF. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF
WET RUNWAYS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...338 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN STILL LOOKS PREDOMINANTLY DRY THROUGH MOST OF THIS NEW
WEEK...BUT WINDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS OF THE
SEASON WILL WHIP INTO THE AREA...LIKELY CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN DROPPING CLOSE TO AND IN SOME CASES A LITTLE
BELOW THE NORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE ERN
PLAINS TODAY...BRINGING SOME COOLING FOR MOST OF THE EAST WHILE
STAYING ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMS. WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING TO
NORTH AND THE BACK DOOR FRONT BRINGING MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SANGRES AND NORTHEAST HIGH TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY TO BE MOSTLY DRY...THOUGH VIRGA
INDUCED WIND GUSTS MAY WELL BE AN ISSUE. ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS SOUTH AND NORTH OF OUR AREA MON INTO TUE
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CREATE A FEW HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THE MAJORITY STILL DRY THOUGH. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WED
AND THU WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WINDS.

STILL BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY FRI AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
GENERALLY SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY COOLER. FCST MODELS DISAGREE ON
WHETHER ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS ACROSS THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH THE GFS SAYING YAY AND THE ECMWF SAYING NAY. NO WAY.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
NM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN GUSTY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING...AND THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN SOME
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHILE ADDING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE EAST FACES
OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. THUS...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH STILL
VERY LITTLE PROBABILITY FOR TRUE WETTING PRECIPITATION. BY THIS
EVENING THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE WESTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO THE WEST WHILE A
BRIEF GUSTY GAP/CANYON WIND SQUEEZES BEYOND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL CREEP UP CONSIDERABLY IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
THE FRONT.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND TOWARD THE
BAJA BY MONDAY...ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BE
JUXTAPOSED OVER NM. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED WITH LOW WETTING RAIN PROBABILITIES. SURFACE WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BE SHIFTING SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY...BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...AND RH WILL BE LOWEST IN THE WESTERN ZONES AT LESS THAN 10
PERCENT.

THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE BAJA TO THE MEXICAN
MAINLAND APPEARS TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FEATURE JUST MAKING IT TO THE
BIG BEND AREA BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INTACT OVER NM FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
TRANQUIL...AND TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MORE DYNAMIC AND CRITICAL PERIOD APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TURNS STRONGER WITH A CYCLIC LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH...DEEP VERTICAL MIXING...AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES HELPING TO SPREAD WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS NM. HIGH HAINES INDICES ARE ALSO PRESENT THESE DAYS. SOME
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THESE CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO LAST INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW SHOWING A COLD FRONT INVADING
EASTERN ZONES WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS THAT COULD IMPEDE MIXING IN
THE WESTERN ZONES.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40






000
FXUS65 KABQ 291725 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1125 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WITH SOME
POTENTIAL WIND IMPACTS. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS AT KTCC CURRENTLY
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS
AFTERNOON. AN EASTERLY GAP/CANYON WIND WILL DEVELOP AT KABQ THIS
EVENING...AND MAY BE SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST
(GUSTS GREATER THAN 26KTS). A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ARE
LIKELY THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND MAY
MOVE IN THE VICINITY OF KLVS...AND POSSIBLY KSAF. HOWEVER...THE
MAIN IMPACT WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS WITH VERY LITTLE CHANCE OF
WET RUNWAYS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...338 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN STILL LOOKS PREDOMINANTLY DRY THROUGH MOST OF THIS NEW
WEEK...BUT WINDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS OF THE
SEASON WILL WHIP INTO THE AREA...LIKELY CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN DROPPING CLOSE TO AND IN SOME CASES A LITTLE
BELOW THE NORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE ERN
PLAINS TODAY...BRINGING SOME COOLING FOR MOST OF THE EAST WHILE
STAYING ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMS. WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING TO
NORTH AND THE BACK DOOR FRONT BRINGING MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SANGRES AND NORTHEAST HIGH TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY TO BE MOSTLY DRY...THOUGH VIRGA
INDUCED WIND GUSTS MAY WELL BE AN ISSUE. ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS SOUTH AND NORTH OF OUR AREA MON INTO TUE
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CREATE A FEW HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THE MAJORITY STILL DRY THOUGH. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WED
AND THU WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WINDS.

STILL BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY FRI AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
GENERALLY SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY COOLER. FCST MODELS DISAGREE ON
WHETHER ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS ACROSS THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH THE GFS SAYING YAY AND THE ECMWF SAYING NAY. NO WAY.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
NM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN GUSTY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING...AND THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN SOME
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHILE ADDING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE EAST FACES
OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. THUS...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH STILL
VERY LITTLE PROBABILITY FOR TRUE WETTING PRECIPITATION. BY THIS
EVENING THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE WESTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO THE WEST WHILE A
BRIEF GUSTY GAP/CANYON WIND SQUEEZES BEYOND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL CREEP UP CONSIDERABLY IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
THE FRONT.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND TOWARD THE
BAJA BY MONDAY...ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BE
JUXTAPOSED OVER NM. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED WITH LOW WETTING RAIN PROBABILITIES. SURFACE WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BE SHIFTING SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY...BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...AND RH WILL BE LOWEST IN THE WESTERN ZONES AT LESS THAN 10
PERCENT.

THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE BAJA TO THE MEXICAN
MAINLAND APPEARS TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FEATURE JUST MAKING IT TO THE
BIG BEND AREA BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INTACT OVER NM FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
TRANQUIL...AND TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MORE DYNAMIC AND CRITICAL PERIOD APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TURNS STRONGER WITH A CYCLIC LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH...DEEP VERTICAL MIXING...AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES HELPING TO SPREAD WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS NM. HIGH HAINES INDICES ARE ALSO PRESENT THESE DAYS. SOME
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THESE CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO LAST INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW SHOWING A COLD FRONT INVADING
EASTERN ZONES WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS THAT COULD IMPEDE MIXING IN
THE WESTERN ZONES.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40





000
FXUS65 KABQ 291205
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
605 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ALL ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL NM. A
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NE NM NEAR OR JUST AFTER
DAWN AND CONTINUE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE STATE
TODAY...WHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SW. SOME STRONG
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40KT OUT OF THE NORTH WILL FOLLOW CLOSE
BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE...MOSTLY IN THE E CENTRAL TO NE PLAINS OF
NM. A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE FRONT
ENCOUNTERS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS COULD INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 19Z AND 04Z...MUCH OF
WHICH WILL PRODUCE ONLY VIRGA AND SOME ACCOMPANYING BRIEFLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS. AS THE FRONT SQUEEZES THROUGH CANYONS AND GAPS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSS NEAR
SAF AND ABQ BETWEEN ROUGHLY 01Z AND 08Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...338 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN STILL LOOKS PREDOMINANTLY DRY THROUGH MOST OF THIS NEW
WEEK...BUT WINDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS OF THE
SEASON WILL WHIP INTO THE AREA...LIKELY CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN DROPPING CLOSE TO AND IN SOME CASES A LITTLE
BELOW THE NORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE ERN
PLAINS TODAY...BRINGING SOME COOLING FOR MOST OF THE EAST WHILE
STAYING ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMS. WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING TO
NORTH AND THE BACK DOOR FRONT BRINGING MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SANGRES AND NORTHEAST HIGH TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY TO BE MOSTLY DRY...THOUGH VIRGA
INDUCED WIND GUSTS MAY WELL BE AN ISSUE. ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS SOUTH AND NORTH OF OUR AREA MON INTO TUE
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CREATE A FEW HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THE MAJORITY STILL DRY THOUGH. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WED
AND THU WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WINDS.

STILL BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY FRI AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
GENERALLY SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY COOLER. FCST MODELS DISAGREE ON
WHETHER ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS ACROSS THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH THE GFS SAYING YAY AND THE ECMWF SAYING NAY. NO WAY.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
NM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN GUSTY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING...AND THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN SOME
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHILE ADDING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE EAST FACES
OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. THUS...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH STILL
VERY LITTLE PROBABILITY FOR TRUE WETTING PRECIPITATION. BY THIS
EVENING THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE WESTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO THE WEST WHILE A
BRIEF GUSTY GAP/CANYON WIND SQUEEZES BEYOND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL CREEP UP CONSIDERABLY IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
THE FRONT.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND TOWARD THE
BAJA BY MONDAY...ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BE
JUXTAPOSED OVER NM. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED WITH LOW WETTING RAIN PROBABILITIES. SURFACE WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BE SHIFTING SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY...BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...AND RH WILL BE LOWEST IN THE WESTERN ZONES AT LESS THAN 10
PERCENT.

THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE BAJA TO THE MEXICAN
MAINLAND APPEARS TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FEATURE JUST MAKING IT TO THE
BIG BEND AREA BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INTACT OVER NM FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
TRANQUIL...AND TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MORE DYNAMIC AND CRITICAL PERIOD APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TURNS STRONGER WITH A CYCLIC LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH...DEEP VERTICAL MIXING...AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES HELPING TO SPREAD WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS NM. HIGH HAINES INDICES ARE ALSO PRESENT THESE DAYS. SOME
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THESE CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO LAST INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW SHOWING A COLD FRONT INVADING
EASTERN ZONES WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS THAT COULD IMPEDE MIXING IN
THE WESTERN ZONES.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 291205
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
605 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ALL ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL NM. A
WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ENTER FAR NE NM NEAR OR JUST AFTER
DAWN AND CONTINUE SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE EAST HALF OF THE STATE
TODAY...WHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE SW. SOME STRONG
GUSTS BETWEEN 30 AND 40KT OUT OF THE NORTH WILL FOLLOW CLOSE
BEHIND FRONTAL PASSAGE...MOSTLY IN THE E CENTRAL TO NE PLAINS OF
NM. A MODEST INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW AS THE FRONT
ENCOUNTERS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS COULD INITIATE A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN ROUGHLY 19Z AND 04Z...MUCH OF
WHICH WILL PRODUCE ONLY VIRGA AND SOME ACCOMPANYING BRIEFLY STRONG
WIND GUSTS. AS THE FRONT SQUEEZES THROUGH CANYONS AND GAPS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSS NEAR
SAF AND ABQ BETWEEN ROUGHLY 01Z AND 08Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...338 AM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
PATTERN STILL LOOKS PREDOMINANTLY DRY THROUGH MOST OF THIS NEW
WEEK...BUT WINDS WILL BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR...ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN SOME OF THE STRONGER WINDS OF THE
SEASON WILL WHIP INTO THE AREA...LIKELY CREATING AREAS OF BLOWING
DUST. TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL THROUGH
THURSDAY...THEN DROPPING CLOSE TO AND IN SOME CASES A LITTLE
BELOW THE NORMS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE ERN
PLAINS TODAY...BRINGING SOME COOLING FOR MOST OF THE EAST WHILE
STAYING ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORMS. WITH WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSING TO
NORTH AND THE BACK DOOR FRONT BRINGING MODEST UPSLOPE FLOW TO THE
NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE...A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER THE SANGRES AND NORTHEAST HIGH TERRAIN THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY TO BE MOSTLY DRY...THOUGH VIRGA
INDUCED WIND GUSTS MAY WELL BE AN ISSUE. ANOTHER UPPER
DISTURBANCE WILL PASS SOUTH AND NORTH OF OUR AREA MON INTO TUE
WITH ENOUGH INSTABILITY TO CREATE A FEW HIGH TERRAIN SHOWERS AND
STORMS...THE MAJORITY STILL DRY THOUGH. DRY AND MILD WEATHER WED
AND THU WITH A SHARP INCREASE IN WINDS.

STILL BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY FRI AND INTO THE NEXT WEEKEND...BUT
GENERALLY SLIGHTLY TO MODERATELY COOLER. FCST MODELS DISAGREE ON
WHETHER ANY PRECIP DEVELOPS ACROSS THE STATE DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH THE GFS SAYING YAY AND THE ECMWF SAYING NAY. NO WAY.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THREAT INCREASING MID TO LATE WEEK...

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY...DESPITE THE ARRIVAL OF A COLD FRONT INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF
NM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN GUSTY IN THE EASTERN PLAINS BEHIND
THE FRONT LATE THIS MORNING...AND THE FRONT WILL ALSO USHER IN SOME
HIGHER DEWPOINTS WHILE ADDING AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE EAST FACES
OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. THUS...A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE OVER AND NEAR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH STILL
VERY LITTLE PROBABILITY FOR TRUE WETTING PRECIPITATION. BY THIS
EVENING THE FRONT WILL ADVANCE WESTWARD INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...INCREASING BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE TO THE WEST WHILE A
BRIEF GUSTY GAP/CANYON WIND SQUEEZES BEYOND THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY WILL CREEP UP CONSIDERABLY IN THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE TONIGHT DUE TO THE INCREASED MOISTURE FROM
THE FRONT.

AN UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OFF OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND TOWARD THE
BAJA BY MONDAY...ALLOWING SOME MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO BE
JUXTAPOSED OVER NM. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INITIATE OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED WITH LOW WETTING RAIN PROBABILITIES. SURFACE WINDS WILL
QUICKLY BE SHIFTING SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY...BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT TO MODERATE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL...AND RH WILL BE LOWEST IN THE WESTERN ZONES AT LESS THAN 10
PERCENT.

THE PROGRESSION OF THE UPPER LOW FROM THE BAJA TO THE MEXICAN
MAINLAND APPEARS TO BE SLOWER WITH THE FEATURE JUST MAKING IT TO THE
BIG BEND AREA BY LATE TUESDAY. THIS WILL KEEP SUFFICIENT MOISTURE
AND INSTABILITY INTACT OVER NM FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED
SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY
TRANQUIL...AND TEMPERATURES WILL STAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL.

THE MORE DYNAMIC AND CRITICAL PERIOD APPEARS TO BE WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WHEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TURNS STRONGER WITH A CYCLIC LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH...DEEP VERTICAL MIXING...AND ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES HELPING TO SPREAD WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ACROSS NM. HIGH HAINES INDICES ARE ALSO PRESENT THESE DAYS. SOME
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR THESE CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO LAST INTO
FRIDAY...BUT LATEST MODEL RUNS ARE NOW SHOWING A COLD FRONT INVADING
EASTERN ZONES WITH ABUNDANT HIGH CLOUDS THAT COULD IMPEDE MIXING IN
THE WESTERN ZONES.

52

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









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