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000
FXUS65 KABQ 310541 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1141 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
GAP WINDS PRODUCING EASTERLY WINDS NEAR 15 KNOTS WITHIN THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SUNRISE. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL
THEN INCREASE STEADILY THROUGH FRIDAY ALL AREAS...PARTICULARLY
OVER WESTERN NM. MID CLOUDS WILL FORM AFTER 21Z ACROSS THE WEST
WHILE HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY LOWER. A FEW GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS WILL
DEVELOP WEST OF THE CONT DVD BY LATE DAY AND PUSH QUICKLY TO THE
NORTHEAST THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. VIRGA WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE LCL WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE TOWARD MORE FALL-LIKE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INITIALLY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MOUNTAINS.
BY SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH SHOWER CHANCES OVER
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL RESULT. COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST ABOUT OVERHEAD NOW. WEAK AND DRY BACKDOOR
FRONT HUNG UP ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS
AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST INTO WEST TX OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL TO COLD
NIGHT IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TONIGHT GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
CLEAR SKY.

SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SINK SEWD OVERNIGHT
AND RESULTING RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO BRING UP LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE FRIDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING
IN COVERAGE SOMEWHAT FRIDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY HALLOWEEN DAY AND NIGHT. LAST COUPLE OF NAM12 RUNS FOCUS AND
AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS NEAR DULCE WEST ALONG
AND NEAR THE SAN JUAN RIVER WESTWARD TO FARMINGTON. INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THIS AREA GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
AND THE FACT THAT THE LOCAL 5KM WRF IS SIMILAR WITH ITS PLACEMENT
OF THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ALL AREAS SATURDAY AND MORESO SUNDAY.

GFS AND NAM ARE IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR THE SUNDAY. LATEST
RUNS ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH A TRAILING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE SIERRA NEVADA...CLOSING OFF A
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR LAS VEGAS NV SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN
BAROCLINIC/FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WRN AND CENTRAL NM SOMETIME DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALL AREAS SUNDAY BUT
LATEST ECMWF IS AROUND 6HRS SLOWER AND THEREFORE DID NOT BUY TOTALLY IN
TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL CHANCES THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST DUE TO
THE TIMING DISCREPANCIES. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SLOWER TO DROP AS NM
REMAINS IN THE WARM SWLY FLOW SECTOR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO NEAR 6500FT MONDAY MORNING OVER NRN AND WRN NM.
VAST MAJORITY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL NEAR OR ABOVE 10K FT.
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER PROGGED TO MOVE OVER NRN NM MONDAY.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS A GOOD BET FOR THE NRN
MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
ANTICIPATED.

A DRY AND COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE LEVELS NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER WEST CENTRAL NM WITH ENCROACHING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
AZ. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TONIGHT...WITH SOME
BREEZY WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A
SLIGHT BUMP UP IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES BECOME FAIR TO GOOD.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ROUNDING ITS BASE. THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE STATE FRIDAY AND DRAW MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. WITH THE FRONT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A FEW
DRY SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE RAIN. VENT RATES WILL GENERALLY BE
GOOD FRIDAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND STRONGER
TRANSPORT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
WEST AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL EAST. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE
GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

THE SECOND AND MAIN DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN
AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING SW WINDS
ALOFT. ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH...SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ALONG MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND FAR NE PLAINS. VENT
RATES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT SATURDAY...THOUGH A
REDUCTION IN MIXING HEIGHTS OVER CENTRAL NM COULD CAUSE SOME POOR
VALUES ALONG OR NEAR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH LIGHT RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TRENDING DOWN...BECOMING NEAR NORMAL OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR THE
PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

THE THIRD DISTURBANCE WILL DETACH FROM THE MAIN TROUGH AND DIG SOUTH
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONG SUNDAY
AND COMBINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL MIXING HEIGHTS TO PRODUCE BREEZY TO
WINDY SW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ALONG THE PEAKS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
SUNDAY...FAVORING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM...INCLUDING SOME HIGH
TERRAIN SNOW. VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT AREAWIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE WEST...BECOMING
BELOW NORMAL...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EAST.

MODELS REMAIN INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN ON THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS LAST DISTURBANCE...THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
FOR THE EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST. GFS AND CANADIAN REMAIN MORE
PROGRESSIVE...THOUGH ECMWF SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS A FASTER
SOLUTION. IN GENERAL...STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST MONDAY WITH
DRYING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND DOWN
THROUGH TUESDAY...BECOMING WELL BELOW NORMAL. VENT RATES SHOULD
TREND DOWN FROM SUNDAY...BECOMING FAIR TO POOR AREAWIDE BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 302344 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
544 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST MOST AREAS FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS UNDER
CLEAR SKIES. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE BELOW GAPS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
WHERE SOME LOCAL EASTERLY WIND GUSTS TO 25 KNOTS ARE POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING...PARTICULARLY AROUND KABQ. HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FROM
THE WEST OVERNIGHT AND CONTINUE STREAMING OVER THE REGION THROUGH
FRIDAY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY TO
BTWN 10 AND 15 KNOTS. A FEW GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN NM BY LATE AFTERNOON AND SHIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST THROUGH
SUNSET.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE TOWARD MORE FALL-LIKE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INITIALLY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MOUNTAINS.
BY SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH SHOWER CHANCES OVER
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL RESULT. COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST ABOUT OVERHEAD NOW. WEAK AND DRY BACKDOOR
FRONT HUNG UP ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS
AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST INTO WEST TX OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL TO COLD
NIGHT IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TONIGHT GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
CLEAR SKY.

SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SINK SEWD OVERNIGHT
AND RESULTING RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO BRING UP LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE FRIDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING
IN COVERAGE SOMEWHAT FRIDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY HALLOWEEN DAY AND NIGHT. LAST COUPLE OF NAM12 RUNS FOCUS AND
AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS NEAR DULCE WEST ALONG
AND NEAR THE SAN JUAN RIVER WESTWARD TO FARMINGTON. INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THIS AREA GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
AND THE FACT THAT THE LOCAL 5KM WRF IS SIMILAR WITH ITS PLACEMENT
OF THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ALL AREAS SATURDAY AND MORESO SUNDAY.

GFS AND NAM ARE IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR THE SUNDAY. LATEST
RUNS ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH A TRAILING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE SIERRA NEVADA...CLOSING OFF A
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR LAS VEGAS NV SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN
BAROCLINIC/FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WRN AND CENTRAL NM SOMETIME DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALL AREAS SUNDAY BUT
LATEST ECMWF IS AROUND 6HRS SLOWER AND THEREFORE DID NOT BUY TOTALLY IN
TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL CHANCES THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST DUE TO
THE TIMING DISCREPANCIES. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SLOWER TO DROP AS NM
REMAINS IN THE WARM SWLY FLOW SECTOR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO NEAR 6500FT MONDAY MORNING OVER NRN AND WRN NM.
VAST MAJORITY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL NEAR OR ABOVE 10K FT.
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER PROGGED TO MOVE OVER NRN NM MONDAY.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS A GOOD BET FOR THE NRN
MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
ANTICIPATED.

A DRY AND COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE LEVELS NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER WEST CENTRAL NM WITH ENCROACHING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
AZ. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TONIGHT...WITH SOME
BREEZY WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A
SLIGHT BUMP UP IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES BECOME FAIR TO GOOD.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ROUNDING ITS BASE. THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE STATE FRIDAY AND DRAW MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. WITH THE FRONT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A FEW
DRY SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE RAIN. VENT RATES WILL GENERALLY BE
GOOD FRIDAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND STRONGER
TRANSPORT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
WEST AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL EAST. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE
GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

THE SECOND AND MAIN DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN
AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING SW WINDS
ALOFT. ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH...SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ALONG MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND FAR NE PLAINS. VENT
RATES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT SATURDAY...THOUGH A
REDUCTION IN MIXING HEIGHTS OVER CENTRAL NM COULD CAUSE SOME POOR
VALUES ALONG OR NEAR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH LIGHT RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TRENDING DOWN...BECOMING NEAR NORMAL OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR THE
PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

THE THIRD DISTURBANCE WILL DETACH FROM THE MAIN TROUGH AND DIG SOUTH
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONG SUNDAY
AND COMBINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL MIXING HEIGHTS TO PRODUCE BREEZY TO
WINDY SW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ALONG THE PEAKS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
SUNDAY...FAVORING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM...INCLUDING SOME HIGH
TERRAIN SNOW. VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT AREAWIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE WEST...BECOMING
BELOW NORMAL...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EAST.

MODELS REMAIN INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN ON THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS LAST DISTURBANCE...THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
FOR THE EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST. GFS AND CANADIAN REMAIN MORE
PROGRESSIVE...THOUGH ECMWF SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS A FASTER
SOLUTION. IN GENERAL...STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST MONDAY WITH
DRYING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND DOWN
THROUGH TUESDAY...BECOMING WELL BELOW NORMAL. VENT RATES SHOULD
TREND DOWN FROM SUNDAY...BECOMING FAIR TO POOR AREAWIDE BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 302130
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 PM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A CHANGE TOWARD MORE FALL-LIKE WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A STRONG STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. INITIALLY...CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH FRIDAY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE MOUNTAINS.
BY SATURDAY...WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH SHOWER CHANCES OVER
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO. AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE WEST SUNDAY...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL RESULT. COLDER TEMPERATURES ALONG WITH HIGHER
ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED BEHIND THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS JUST ABOUT OVERHEAD NOW. WEAK AND DRY BACKDOOR
FRONT HUNG UP ON THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. THIS
AXIS WILL SLIDE EAST INTO WEST TX OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER COOL TO COLD
NIGHT IN VALLEY LOCATIONS TONIGHT GIVEN DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
CLEAR SKY.

SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS WILL SINK SEWD OVERNIGHT
AND RESULTING RETURN FLOW BEGINS TO BRING UP LOW LEVEL GULF
MOISTURE FRIDAY. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ALONG AND NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WILL DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON...INCREASING
IN COVERAGE SOMEWHAT FRIDAY NIGHT. ELSEWHERE...BREEZY SOUTH TO
SOUTHEAST WINDS AND INCREASING CLOUDS WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER
STORY HALLOWEEN DAY AND NIGHT. LAST COUPLE OF NAM12 RUNS FOCUS AND
AREA OF SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS NEAR DULCE WEST ALONG
AND NEAR THE SAN JUAN RIVER WESTWARD TO FARMINGTON. INCREASED
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IN THIS AREA GIVEN THE RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY
AND THE FACT THAT THE LOCAL 5KM WRF IS SIMILAR WITH ITS PLACEMENT
OF THIS CONVERGENCE ZONE. MODERATE TO STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ALL AREAS SATURDAY AND MORESO SUNDAY.

GFS AND NAM ARE IN LINE WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR THE SUNDAY. LATEST
RUNS ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH A TRAILING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE LEE OF THE SIERRA NEVADA...CLOSING OFF A
CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR LAS VEGAS NV SUNDAY AFTERNOON. MAIN
BAROCLINIC/FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO WRN AND CENTRAL NM SOMETIME DURING THE
DAY SUNDAY. INCREASED PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALL AREAS SUNDAY BUT
LATEST ECMWF IS AROUND 6HRS SLOWER AND THEREFORE DID NOT BUY TOTALLY IN
TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL CHANCES THE MODELS WOULD SUGGEST DUE TO
THE TIMING DISCREPANCIES. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE SLOWER TO DROP AS NM
REMAINS IN THE WARM SWLY FLOW SECTOR THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. SNOW
LEVELS DROP TO NEAR 6500FT MONDAY MORNING OVER NRN AND WRN NM.
VAST MAJORITY OF SNOW ACCUMULATION WILL NEAR OR ABOVE 10K FT.
CLOSED UPPER LOW CENTER PROGGED TO MOVE OVER NRN NM MONDAY.
INSTABILITY SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS A GOOD BET FOR THE NRN
MOUNTAINS MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION
ANTICIPATED.

A DRY AND COOL NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS OVER THE REGION
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL FINALLY REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE LEVELS NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CURRENTLY CENTERED
OVER WEST CENTRAL NM WITH ENCROACHING HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS OVER CENTRAL
AZ. THE BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TONIGHT...WITH SOME
BREEZY WINDS DEVELOPING THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. A
SLIGHT BUMP UP IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL HELP OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES BECOME FAIR TO GOOD.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE STATE THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK...WITH A SERIES OF DISTURBANCES ROUNDING ITS BASE. THE FIRST
DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE STATE FRIDAY AND DRAW MID LEVEL MOISTURE
INTO THE AREA. WITH THE FRONT INCREASING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...A FEW
DRY SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGH TERRAIN AND
PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH LITTLE RAIN. VENT RATES WILL GENERALLY BE
GOOD FRIDAY DUE TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND STRONGER
TRANSPORT WINDS. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL...BUT REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL
WEST AND NEAR TO BELOW NORMAL EAST. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE
GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

THE SECOND AND MAIN DISTURBANCE WILL EJECT OUT OF THE GREAT BASIN
AND INTO THE CENTRAL ROCKIES SATURDAY...WITH INCREASING SW WINDS
ALOFT. ALONG WITH A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE TROUGH...SURFACE WINDS WILL
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ALONG MOUNTAIN PEAKS AND FAR NE PLAINS. VENT
RATES WILL GENERALLY BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT SATURDAY...THOUGH A
REDUCTION IN MIXING HEIGHTS OVER CENTRAL NM COULD CAUSE SOME POOR
VALUES ALONG OR NEAR THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE WILL INCREASE MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
SATURDAY...AND COULD PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS WITH LIGHT RAIN.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TRENDING DOWN...BECOMING NEAR NORMAL OVER
MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA. SNOW MAY BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FOR THE
PEAKS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

THE THIRD DISTURBANCE WILL DETACH FROM THE MAIN TROUGH AND DIG SOUTH
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. WINDS ALOFT WILL REMAIN STRONG SUNDAY
AND COMBINE WITH ABOVE NORMAL MIXING HEIGHTS TO PRODUCE BREEZY TO
WINDY SW WINDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
ALONG THE PEAKS OF THE HIGH TERRAIN AND THE NORTHEAST PLAINS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
SUNDAY...FAVORING WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM...INCLUDING SOME HIGH
TERRAIN SNOW. VENT RATES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT AREAWIDE.
TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE WEST...BECOMING
BELOW NORMAL...WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EAST.

MODELS REMAIN INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN ON THE EASTWARD
PROGRESSION OF THIS LAST DISTURBANCE...THUS CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
FOR THE EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST. GFS AND CANADIAN REMAIN MORE
PROGRESSIVE...THOUGH ECMWF SEEMS TO BE TRENDING TOWARDS A FASTER
SOLUTION. IN GENERAL...STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EAST MONDAY WITH
DRYING TREND THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES SHOULD TREND DOWN
THROUGH TUESDAY...BECOMING WELL BELOW NORMAL. VENT RATES SHOULD
TREND DOWN FROM SUNDAY...BECOMING FAIR TO POOR AREAWIDE BY
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE AND SHIFT WINDS MORE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY. GUSTY WINDS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH GAPS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INCREASING WINDS FOR KABQ AND KSAF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  38  69  44  66 /   0   5  30  20
DULCE...........................  25  65  34  60 /   0   5  30  20
CUBA............................  33  61  34  56 /   5   5  20  20
GALLUP..........................  32  70  39  67 /   0  10  20  10
EL MORRO........................  29  64  35  62 /   5  20  20  20
GRANTS..........................  31  67  37  66 /   0  10  20  10
QUEMADO.........................  37  64  42  61 /   5  10  20  10
GLENWOOD........................  38  71  41  69 /   0  10  10  10
CHAMA...........................  25  60  31  57 /   5   5  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  40  58  43  54 /   5   5  20  20
PECOS...........................  34  53  38  54 /   5   0  10  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  30  61  35  54 /   5   0  20  20
RED RIVER.......................  32  52  35  45 /   5   5  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  19  56  26  52 /   5   5  10  10
TAOS............................  27  61  34  55 /   5   0  10  10
MORA............................  31  55  37  56 /   5   0  10  10
ESPANOLA........................  39  64  44  59 /   0   5  10  10
SANTA FE........................  38  59  42  57 /   5   0  10  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  35  62  39  61 /   0   5  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  44  66  48  62 /   0   0  20  10
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  45  68  49  64 /   0   0  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  40  70  45  66 /   0   0  10  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  42  69  47  65 /   0   0  10  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  35  71  39  63 /   0   0  10  10
RIO RANCHO......................  41  68  47  65 /   0   0  10  10
SOCORRO.........................  39  72  45  64 /   0   5  10  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  34  61  39  58 /   5   5  20  20
TIJERAS.........................  32  62  38  60 /   0   5  10  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  26  63  31  62 /   5   5  10  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  34  58  37  60 /   5   5  10  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  39  62  42  58 /   5   5  10  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  41  67  42  67 /   5   5  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  38  62  39  66 /   5  10  20  10
CAPULIN.........................  33  56  37  59 /   5   0   5   0
RATON...........................  31  60  34  63 /   0   0   5   5
SPRINGER........................  29  59  34  62 /   5   0   5   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  31  55  35  58 /   5   0  10  10
CLAYTON.........................  38  59  40  61 /   0   0   5   0
ROY.............................  35  58  38  59 /   5   0   5   0
CONCHAS.........................  40  66  45  66 /   5   0   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  40  64  42  64 /   5   5   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  39  69  43  68 /   5   0   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  41  65  41  64 /   5   5   5   0
PORTALES........................  40  66  41  65 /   5   5   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  41  64  44  63 /   5   5   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  43  64  43  66 /   5   5   5   0
PICACHO.........................  42  59  41  65 /   5  10  10   5
ELK.............................  41  55  40  60 /   5  10  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33

















000
FXUS65 KABQ 301740
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1140 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE AND SHIFT WINDS MORE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY. GUSTY WINDS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH GAPS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INCREASING WINDS FOR KABQ AND KSAF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO TEST OFFICE BACK-UP CAPABILITIES. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...521 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WIND SHIFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF N OR NE WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTN MOST AREAS...THOUGH THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. GAP WINDS
WITH GUSTS BTW 18 AND 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SAF LATE THIS AFTN
AND AT ABQ TONIGHT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...309 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO THEN AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO NORMAL OR BELOW BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. 40

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD NM TODAY PROVIDING US
WITH ANOTHER STELLAR DAY OF WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
DESPITE A CHILLY START TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS AGAIN TODAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOW THE WARMING
IN THE EAST TODAY AND THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
WITH THE FRONT.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE STATE TONIGHT THEN
SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SETTING UP AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL PROVIDE
US WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS A LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN FRIDAY. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AND RAIN
AMOUNTS...IF ANY...WILL BE LIGHT. EAST CANYON WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL
BE COOLER MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A PORTION
OF THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND WHILE ADDITIONAL
ENERGY HANGS BACK OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE SOME FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES.

BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES THEN DEVELOP LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. GFS IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE HANG BACK TROUGH. IT
DOES NOT DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW LIKE IT DID YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE THE
EUROPEAN DOES DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS NV SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVES IT INTO AZ MONDAY THEN SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY. IT THEN
MOVES THE LOW SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TX
WEDNESDAY BEFORE LIFTING IT NORTHEAST THURSDAY. OBVIOUSLY THIS
RESULTS IN A MUCH WETTER PATTERN FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME IF THE
EUROPEAN IS RIGHT. THE CANADIAN SIDES WITH THE GFS AND THAT IS THE
TREND WE WILL GO WITH FOR NOW. SO THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...DRAWING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL HELP THE EAST GET INTO
THE PRECIPITATION MODE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HIGH NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAKS COULD RECEIVE SOME
ACCUMULATING WET SNOW.

A DRYING TREND COMMENCES TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR
THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE GFS. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS NM TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW YESTERDAYS READINGS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST...THANKS TO A BACK DOOR FRONT. LOCALIZED BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL YIELD FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHILE POOR VENTILATION STILL REMAINS THE RULE ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...HUMIDITY
VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON ALONG AND WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AN HOUR OR TWO OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF ZONE 105.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BELOW GAPS
TONIGHT. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES SHOULD IMPROVE FROM THIS MORNING...WITH
MOST AREAS IN THE FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORIES.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH/SELY ON
FRIDAY AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL DRAW UP SOME MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO MAINLY WESTERN NM...WITH THE EDGES OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. VENTILATION WILL
IMPROVE...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING GOOD VENTILATION RATES. SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS...MAINLY DRY SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST. AS LIFT INCREASES AS THE TROUGH NEARS...SHOWERS MAY
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NM. HUMIDITIES BOTH
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE.

REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THOUGH SOME ENERGY FROM THE
SYSTEM WILL EJECT NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO
AZ/NM BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR NM IS BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND MODELS ARE TRENDING THAT
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WINDIER OF THE TWO DAYS. HUMIDITIES WILL BE TOO
HIGH FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP...BUT VENTILATION WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. SOME MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST/UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
RESULT IN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...IN
PARTICULAR...THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AS DRIER AIR ONCE AGAIN INTRUDES
INTO THE MID LEVELS. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER SUNDAY...THUS SOME OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 9KFT...COULD SEE SOME FLAKES.
TEMPS WILL LOWER SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...AND MORE SO ON MONDAY
ACROSS ALL AREAS. IN FACT...MOST AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM
MAY SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

MODELS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH HOW THE SECONDARY ENERGY WILL
EVOLVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...LEAVING LITTLE CHANGE FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD. WHILE THE ECMWF
CLOSES OFF THE LOW OVER AZ MONDAY WHICH DRAWS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
MOISTURE INTO NM EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP. TOO EARLY TO SAY WHICH WAY IT WILL GO...BUT LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS/CANADIAN.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

99






000
FXUS65 KABQ 301740
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1140 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A COLD FRONT
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE AND SHIFT WINDS MORE EAST
AND SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY. GUSTY WINDS ON THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH GAPS IN THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INCREASING WINDS FOR KABQ AND KSAF THIS
AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO TEST OFFICE BACK-UP CAPABILITIES. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...521 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WIND SHIFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF N OR NE WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTN MOST AREAS...THOUGH THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. GAP WINDS
WITH GUSTS BTW 18 AND 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SAF LATE THIS AFTN
AND AT ABQ TONIGHT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...309 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO THEN AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO NORMAL OR BELOW BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. 40

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD NM TODAY PROVIDING US
WITH ANOTHER STELLAR DAY OF WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
DESPITE A CHILLY START TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS AGAIN TODAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOW THE WARMING
IN THE EAST TODAY AND THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
WITH THE FRONT.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE STATE TONIGHT THEN
SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SETTING UP AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL PROVIDE
US WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS A LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN FRIDAY. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AND RAIN
AMOUNTS...IF ANY...WILL BE LIGHT. EAST CANYON WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL
BE COOLER MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A PORTION
OF THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND WHILE ADDITIONAL
ENERGY HANGS BACK OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE SOME FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES.

BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES THEN DEVELOP LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. GFS IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE HANG BACK TROUGH. IT
DOES NOT DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW LIKE IT DID YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE THE
EUROPEAN DOES DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS NV SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVES IT INTO AZ MONDAY THEN SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY. IT THEN
MOVES THE LOW SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TX
WEDNESDAY BEFORE LIFTING IT NORTHEAST THURSDAY. OBVIOUSLY THIS
RESULTS IN A MUCH WETTER PATTERN FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME IF THE
EUROPEAN IS RIGHT. THE CANADIAN SIDES WITH THE GFS AND THAT IS THE
TREND WE WILL GO WITH FOR NOW. SO THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...DRAWING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL HELP THE EAST GET INTO
THE PRECIPITATION MODE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HIGH NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAKS COULD RECEIVE SOME
ACCUMULATING WET SNOW.

A DRYING TREND COMMENCES TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR
THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE GFS. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS NM TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW YESTERDAYS READINGS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST...THANKS TO A BACK DOOR FRONT. LOCALIZED BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL YIELD FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHILE POOR VENTILATION STILL REMAINS THE RULE ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...HUMIDITY
VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON ALONG AND WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AN HOUR OR TWO OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF ZONE 105.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BELOW GAPS
TONIGHT. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES SHOULD IMPROVE FROM THIS MORNING...WITH
MOST AREAS IN THE FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORIES.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH/SELY ON
FRIDAY AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL DRAW UP SOME MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO MAINLY WESTERN NM...WITH THE EDGES OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. VENTILATION WILL
IMPROVE...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING GOOD VENTILATION RATES. SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS...MAINLY DRY SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST. AS LIFT INCREASES AS THE TROUGH NEARS...SHOWERS MAY
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NM. HUMIDITIES BOTH
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE.

REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THOUGH SOME ENERGY FROM THE
SYSTEM WILL EJECT NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO
AZ/NM BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR NM IS BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND MODELS ARE TRENDING THAT
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WINDIER OF THE TWO DAYS. HUMIDITIES WILL BE TOO
HIGH FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP...BUT VENTILATION WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. SOME MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST/UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
RESULT IN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...IN
PARTICULAR...THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AS DRIER AIR ONCE AGAIN INTRUDES
INTO THE MID LEVELS. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER SUNDAY...THUS SOME OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 9KFT...COULD SEE SOME FLAKES.
TEMPS WILL LOWER SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...AND MORE SO ON MONDAY
ACROSS ALL AREAS. IN FACT...MOST AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM
MAY SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

MODELS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH HOW THE SECONDARY ENERGY WILL
EVOLVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...LEAVING LITTLE CHANGE FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD. WHILE THE ECMWF
CLOSES OFF THE LOW OVER AZ MONDAY WHICH DRAWS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
MOISTURE INTO NM EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP. TOO EARLY TO SAY WHICH WAY IT WILL GO...BUT LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS/CANADIAN.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

99






000
FXUS65 KABQ 301619
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
ISSUED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
1019 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO TEST OFFICE BACK-UP CAPABILITIES. NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THIS AFTERNOON`S FORECAST ARE ANTICIPATED.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...521 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WIND SHIFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF N OR NE WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTN MOST AREAS...THOUGH THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. GAP WINDS
WITH GUSTS BTW 18 AND 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SAF LATE THIS AFTN
AND AT ABQ TONIGHT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...309 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO THEN AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO NORMAL OR BELOW BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. 40

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD NM TODAY PROVIDING US
WITH ANOTHER STELLAR DAY OF WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
DESPITE A CHILLY START TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS AGAIN TODAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOW THE WARMING
IN THE EAST TODAY AND THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
WITH THE FRONT.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE STATE TONIGHT THEN
SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SETTING UP AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL PROVIDE
US WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS A LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN FRIDAY. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AND RAIN
AMOUNTS...IF ANY...WILL BE LIGHT. EAST CANYON WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL
BE COOLER MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A PORTION
OF THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND WHILE ADDITIONAL
ENERGY HANGS BACK OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE SOME FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES.

BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES THEN DEVELOP LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. GFS IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE HANG BACK TROUGH. IT
DOES NOT DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW LIKE IT DID YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE THE
EUROPEAN DOES DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS NV SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVES IT INTO AZ MONDAY THEN SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY. IT THEN
MOVES THE LOW SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TX
WEDNESDAY BEFORE LIFTING IT NORTHEAST THURSDAY. OBVIOUSLY THIS
RESULTS IN A MUCH WETTER PATTERN FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME IF THE
EUROPEAN IS RIGHT. THE CANADIAN SIDES WITH THE GFS AND THAT IS THE
TREND WE WILL GO WITH FOR NOW. SO THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...DRAWING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL HELP THE EAST GET INTO
THE PRECIPITATION MODE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HIGH NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAKS COULD RECEIVE SOME
ACCUMULATING WET SNOW.

A DRYING TREND COMMENCES TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR
THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE GFS. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS NM TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW YESTERDAYS READINGS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST...THANKS TO A BACK DOOR FRONT. LOCALIZED BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL YIELD FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHILE POOR VENTILATION STILL REMAINS THE RULE ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...HUMIDITY
VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON ALONG AND WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AN HOUR OR TWO OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF ZONE 105.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BELOW GAPS
TONIGHT. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES SHOULD IMPROVE FROM THIS MORNING...WITH
MOST AREAS IN THE FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORIES.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH/SELY ON
FRIDAY AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL DRAW UP SOME MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO MAINLY WESTERN NM...WITH THE EDGES OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. VENTILATION WILL
IMPROVE...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING GOOD VENTILATION RATES. SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS...MAINLY DRY SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST. AS LIFT INCREASES AS THE TROUGH NEARS...SHOWERS MAY
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NM. HUMIDITIES BOTH
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE.

REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THOUGH SOME ENERGY FROM THE
SYSTEM WILL EJECT NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO
AZ/NM BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR NM IS BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND MODELS ARE TRENDING THAT
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WINDIER OF THE TWO DAYS. HUMIDITIES WILL BE TOO
HIGH FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP...BUT VENTILATION WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. SOME MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST/UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
RESULT IN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...IN
PARTICULAR...THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AS DRIER AIR ONCE AGAIN INTRUDES
INTO THE MID LEVELS. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER SUNDAY...THUS SOME OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 9KFT...COULD SEE SOME FLAKES.
TEMPS WILL LOWER SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...AND MORE SO ON MONDAY
ACROSS ALL AREAS. IN FACT...MOST AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM
MAY SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

MODELS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH HOW THE SECONDARY ENERGY WILL
EVOLVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...LEAVING LITTLE CHANGE FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD. WHILE THE ECMWF
CLOSES OFF THE LOW OVER AZ MONDAY WHICH DRAWS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
MOISTURE INTO NM EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP. TOO EARLY TO SAY WHICH WAY IT WILL GO...BUT LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS/CANADIAN.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

04 WFO EPZ






000
FXUS65 KABQ 301121 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
521 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. A WIND SHIFT
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY. A BRIEF
PERIOD OF N OR NE WIND GUSTS NEAR 20KT WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE
FRONT. WINDS WILL TAPER OFF LATE THIS AFTN MOST AREAS...THOUGH THE
FRONT WILL PUSH THRU THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. GAP WINDS
WITH GUSTS BTW 18 AND 25KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT SAF LATE THIS AFTN
AND AT ABQ TONIGHT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...309 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO THEN AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO NORMAL OR BELOW BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. 40

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD NM TODAY PROVIDING US
WITH ANOTHER STELLAR DAY OF WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
DESPITE A CHILLY START TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS AGAIN TODAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOW THE WARMING
IN THE EAST TODAY AND THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
WITH THE FRONT.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE STATE TONIGHT THEN
SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SETTING UP AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL PROVIDE
US WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS A LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN FRIDAY. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AND RAIN
AMOUNTS...IF ANY...WILL BE LIGHT. EAST CANYON WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL
BE COOLER MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A PORTION
OF THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND WHILE ADDITIONAL
ENERGY HANGS BACK OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE SOME FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES.

BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES THEN DEVELOP LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. GFS IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE HANG BACK TROUGH. IT
DOES NOT DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW LIKE IT DID YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE THE
EUROPEAN DOES DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS NV SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVES IT INTO AZ MONDAY THEN SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY. IT THEN
MOVES THE LOW SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TX
WEDNESDAY BEFORE LIFTING IT NORTHEAST THURSDAY. OBVIOUSLY THIS
RESULTS IN A MUCH WETTER PATTERN FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME IF THE
EUROPEAN IS RIGHT. THE CANADIAN SIDES WITH THE GFS AND THAT IS THE
TREND WE WILL GO WITH FOR NOW. SO THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...DRAWING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL HELP THE EAST GET INTO
THE PRECIPITATION MODE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HIGH NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAKS COULD RECEIVE SOME
ACCUMULATING WET SNOW.

A DRYING TREND COMMENCES TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR
THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE GFS. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS NM TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW YESTERDAYS READINGS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST...THANKS TO A BACK DOOR FRONT. LOCALIZED BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL YIELD FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHILE POOR VENTILATION STILL REMAINS THE RULE ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...HUMIDITY
VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON ALONG AND WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AN HOUR OR TWO OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF ZONE 105.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BELOW GAPS
TONIGHT. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES SHOULD IMPROVE FROM THIS MORNING...WITH
MOST AREAS IN THE FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORIES.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH/SELY ON
FRIDAY AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL DRAW UP SOME MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO MAINLY WESTERN NM...WITH THE EDGES OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. VENTILATION WILL
IMPROVE...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING GOOD VENTILATION RATES. SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS...MAINLY DRY SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST. AS LIFT INCREASES AS THE TROUGH NEARS...SHOWERS MAY
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NM. HUMIDITIES BOTH
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE.

REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THOUGH SOME ENERGY FROM THE
SYSTEM WILL EJECT NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO
AZ/NM BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR NM IS BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND MODELS ARE TRENDING THAT
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WINDIER OF THE TWO DAYS. HUMIDITIES WILL BE TOO
HIGH FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP...BUT VENTILATION WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. SOME MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST/UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
RESULT IN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...IN
PARTICULAR...THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AS DRIER AIR ONCE AGAIN INTRUDES
INTO THE MID LEVELS. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER SUNDAY...THUS SOME OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 9KFT...COULD SEE SOME FLAKES.
TEMPS WILL LOWER SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...AND MORE SO ON MONDAY
ACROSS ALL AREAS. IN FACT...MOST AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM
MAY SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

MODELS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH HOW THE SECONDARY ENERGY WILL
EVOLVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...LEAVING LITTLE CHANGE FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD. WHILE THE ECMWF
CLOSES OFF THE LOW OVER AZ MONDAY WHICH DRAWS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
MOISTURE INTO NM EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP. TOO EARLY TO SAY WHICH WAY IT WILL GO...BUT LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS/CANADIAN.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 300909
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
309 AM MDT THU OCT 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED DRY THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO THEN AN INCREASE IN
MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS...A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FRIDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL TREND BACK TO NORMAL OR BELOW BY
EARLY NEXT WEEK. BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES DEVELOP EARLY NEXT WEEK. 40

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE TOWARD NM TODAY PROVIDING US
WITH ANOTHER STELLAR DAY OF WEATHER WITH PLENTY OF BRIGHT SUNSHINE.
DESPITE A CHILLY START TEMPERATURES WILL SOAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS AGAIN TODAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLOW THE WARMING
IN THE EAST TODAY AND THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
WITH THE FRONT.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE STATE TONIGHT THEN
SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING ALOFT AND SOUTH
TO SOUTHEAST WINDS SETTING UP AT THE SURFACE. THIS WILL PROVIDE
US WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE AS A LARGE TROUGH APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST. A FEW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN FRIDAY. COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED AND RAIN
AMOUNTS...IF ANY...WILL BE LIGHT. EAST CANYON WINDS WILL DEVELOP
TONIGHT INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. HIGH TEMPERATURES FRIDAY WILL
BE COOLER MOST AREAS...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST.

THE TROUGH WILL MOVE INLAND FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. A PORTION
OF THE TROUGH WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THIS WEEKEND WHILE ADDITIONAL
ENERGY HANGS BACK OVER THE GREAT BASIN. SHOWER COVERAGE SHOULD
INCREASE SOME FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
COVERAGE OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES.

BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES THEN DEVELOP LATER IN THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK. GFS IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE HANG BACK TROUGH. IT
DOES NOT DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW LIKE IT DID YESTERDAY. MEANWHILE THE
EUROPEAN DOES DEVELOP A CLOSED LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS NV SUNDAY NIGHT
AND MOVES IT INTO AZ MONDAY THEN SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY. IT THEN
MOVES THE LOW SLOWLY EAST ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TX
WEDNESDAY BEFORE LIFTING IT NORTHEAST THURSDAY. OBVIOUSLY THIS
RESULTS IN A MUCH WETTER PATTERN FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME IF THE
EUROPEAN IS RIGHT. THE CANADIAN SIDES WITH THE GFS AND THAT IS THE
TREND WE WILL GO WITH FOR NOW. SO THE TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN
WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST SUNDAY INTO TUESDAY...DRAWING ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE NORTH INTO THE STATE. THIS WILL HELP THE EAST GET INTO
THE PRECIPITATION MODE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...ALTHOUGH PROBABLY
ONLY ISOLATED COVERAGE. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
FOR THE WEST AND CENTRAL AREAS...WITH SNOW LEVELS DROPPING SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY. HIGH NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAKS COULD RECEIVE SOME
ACCUMULATING WET SNOW.

A DRYING TREND COMMENCES TUESDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL FOR
THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK...AT LEAST ACCORDING TO THE GFS. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS NM TODAY AND TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN AT OR JUST BELOW YESTERDAYS READINGS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST...THANKS TO A BACK DOOR FRONT. LOCALIZED BREEZY CONDITIONS
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL YIELD FAIR TO GOOD VENTILATION ACROSS THE
PLAINS...WHILE POOR VENTILATION STILL REMAINS THE RULE ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. ADDITIONALLY...HUMIDITY
VALUES BETWEEN 10 AND 15 PERCENT WILL BE COMMON ALONG AND WEST OF
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. AN HOUR OR TWO OF SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES IS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS PORTIONS OF ZONE 105.

THE FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY DEVELOP BELOW GAPS
TONIGHT. HUMIDITY RECOVERIES SHOULD IMPROVE FROM THIS MORNING...WITH
MOST AREAS IN THE FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORIES.

THE FRONT WILL WASH OUT AND SURFACE WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTH/SELY ON
FRIDAY AND STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY AS A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES
TOWARD THE WEST COAST. THIS WILL DRAW UP SOME MODEST LOW/MID LEVEL
MOISTURE INTO MAINLY WESTERN NM...WITH THE EDGES OF THE BETTER
MOISTURE RETURN INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. VENTILATION WILL
IMPROVE...WITH MOST AREAS SEEING GOOD VENTILATION RATES. SOME SPOTTY
SHOWERS...MAINLY DRY SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS...ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST. AS LIFT INCREASES AS THE TROUGH NEARS...SHOWERS MAY
INCREASE FRIDAY NIGHT AND SPREAD INTO CENTRAL NM. HUMIDITIES BOTH
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT WILL INCREASE.

REGARDING THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...THOUGH SOME ENERGY FROM THE
SYSTEM WILL EJECT NE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...ADDITIONAL ENERGY
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DIVE SOUTHWARD INTO
AZ/NM BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. WHAT THIS MEANS FOR NM IS BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS OVER THE WEEKEND...AND MODELS ARE TRENDING THAT
SUNDAY WILL BE THE WINDIER OF THE TWO DAYS. HUMIDITIES WILL BE TOO
HIGH FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP...BUT VENTILATION WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPROVE. SOME MOISTURE IN THE SOUTHWEST/UPSLOPE FLOW MAY
RESULT IN SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...IN
PARTICULAR...THE NORTHWEST MOUNTAINS. ON SATURDAY...SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL
HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTY WINDS AS DRIER AIR ONCE AGAIN INTRUDES
INTO THE MID LEVELS. SNOW LEVELS WILL LOWER SUNDAY...THUS SOME OF
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS...MAINLY ABOVE 9KFT...COULD SEE SOME FLAKES.
TEMPS WILL LOWER SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST...AND MORE SO ON MONDAY
ACROSS ALL AREAS. IN FACT...MOST AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM
MAY SEE BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY.

MODELS ARE REALLY STRUGGLING WITH HOW THE SECONDARY ENERGY WILL
EVOLVE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS ARE MORE
PROGRESSIVE WITH THE SYSTEM...LEAVING LITTLE CHANGE FOR ADDITIONAL
PRECIPITATION DURING THE EARLY TO MID WEEK PERIOD. WHILE THE ECMWF
CLOSES OFF THE LOW OVER AZ MONDAY WHICH DRAWS SIGNIFICANTLY MORE
MOISTURE INTO NM EARLY NEXT WEEK...INCREASING THE CHANCES FOR
PRECIP. TOO EARLY TO SAY WHICH WAY IT WILL GO...BUT LEANING TOWARD
THE GFS/CANADIAN.


34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL FAVOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM. A WIND SHIFT WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD DOWN THE E PLAINS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS NEAR 15KTS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE TAPERING
OFF AGAIN DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  68  37  69  45 /   0   0   5  20
DULCE...........................  69  23  66  33 /   0   0   5  20
CUBA............................  69  31  63  38 /   0   5   5  20
GALLUP..........................  73  31  71  40 /   0   0   5  20
EL MORRO........................  70  29  65  39 /   0   5  10  20
GRANTS..........................  72  29  67  37 /   0   0   5  20
QUEMADO.........................  71  37  65  43 /   0   5  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  78  38  74  40 /   0   0   0  10
CHAMA...........................  65  24  61  30 /   0   5   5  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  65  39  60  44 /   0   5   5  20
PECOS...........................  64  33  57  39 /   0   5   0  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  66  29  61  35 /   0   5   0  20
RED RIVER.......................  56  26  51  29 /   0   5   5  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  61  17  56  23 /   0   5   5  10
TAOS............................  68  25  62  33 /   0   5   0  10
MORA............................  65  31  58  37 /   0   5   0  10
ESPANOLA........................  70  39  65  43 /   0   0   5  10
SANTA FE........................  65  36  59  43 /   0   5   0  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  69  35  64  40 /   0   0   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  69  44  67  46 /   0   0   0  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  71  45  68  47 /   0   0   0  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  73  41  71  43 /   0   0   0  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  72  44  69  46 /   0   0   0  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  73  36  71  39 /   0   0   0  10
RIO RANCHO......................  72  42  69  46 /   0   0   0  10
SOCORRO.........................  75  42  71  45 /   0   0   5  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  66  36  62  39 /   0   5   5  20
TIJERAS.........................  68  34  64  38 /   0   0   5  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  71  28  65  31 /   0   5   5  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  66  34  60  37 /   0   5   5  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  69  39  64  42 /   0   5   5  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  72  42  67  42 /   0   5   5  10
RUIDOSO.........................  70  39  63  39 /   0   5  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  62  30  57  37 /   0   5   0   5
RATON...........................  66  28  61  35 /   0   0   0   5
SPRINGER........................  67  27  61  33 /   0   5   0   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  66  30  59  37 /   0   5   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  67  34  59  39 /   0   0   0   5
ROY.............................  66  33  59  37 /   0   5   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  72  37  66  42 /   0   5   0   5
SANTA ROSA......................  71  38  65  40 /   0   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  72  36  67  42 /   0   5   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  71  38  64  40 /   0   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  72  37  65  40 /   0   5   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  71  39  64  43 /   0   5   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  74  44  66  42 /   0   5   5   5
PICACHO.........................  70  43  61  42 /   0   5  10  10
ELK.............................  69  42  57  41 /   0   5  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40/34






000
FXUS65 KABQ 300532 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1132 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
VFR CONDITIONS ALL AREAS THE NEXT 24 HOURS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE REGION WILL FAVOR CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS FOR CENTRAL AND
WESTERN NM. A WIND SHIFT WILL BUILD SOUTHWARD DOWN THE E PLAINS
OVERNIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY. A BRIEF PERIOD OF NORTH/NORTHEAST
WINDS NEAR 15KTS WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE FRONT...BEFORE TAPERING
OFF AGAIN DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...551 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014...
.UPDATE...
DROPPED RED RIVER LOW TEMPERATURES NIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS IN
ACCORDANCE WITH LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION AND GFS BASED MOS
GUIDANCE. ALSO NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES BASED ON
LAST NIGHTS READINGS...THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE AND A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP INTO THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. ALSO ADDED
A FEW CLOUDS TO THE SKY GRIDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT AND
NORTHEAST AREAS ON THURSDAY.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD NEW MEXICO
FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. A DRY AIRMASS...HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL EFFICIENTLY OVERNIGHT. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
THURSDAY...ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGES TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM WILL HELP DRAW UP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. SLIGHT CHANCES
OF MAINLY LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATE- DAY FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR SAN DIEGO MAKING
INROADS EASTWARD TOWARD NM TODAY. RISING HEIGHTS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
RESULTING IN WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALL LOCALES THIS AFTERNOON.
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE THIS MORNINGS READINGS. RIDGE AXIS/HIGH CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD
THURSDAY. NORMALLY...VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE/BREAK
AS TEMPERATURES NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL ARE RELATIVELY WARM BUT A
DRY AND WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NE AND HELP
WITH MIXING LATE THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS
WILL PUSH WWD THROUGH THE CANYONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AROUND MID MORNING. MAIN SFC HIGH OVER NRN PLAINS SLIDES SE
FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SELY TO SLY RETURN FLOW SETUP. GFS
AND NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND PARTICULARLY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT DEVELOPING...EXPECT ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE INCREASES OVER NW NM SATURDAY IN
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE DEEP TROUGH MOVING ASHORE OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN THE AREAS TYPICALLY FAVORED BY RELATIVELY MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...GENERALLY FROM DULCE TO CHAMA AND THEN EAST
TO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
PERIOD OF OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS GOING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS
NOW SLOWER WITH DROPPING SNOW LEVELS. SNOW LEVEL DROP TO AROUND 8000
FT OVER THE NW QUARTER OF OF THE STATE BY ABOUT SUNRISE SUNDAY.
STILL LOOKING LIKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

GFS AND ECMWF STRUGGLING MIGHTILY BEYOND MONDAY MORNING WITH HOW
TO HANDLE A TRAILING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE MAIN LONG-WAVE TROUGH. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING ENOUGH
CHANGE RUN TO RUN TO COMPLETELY CHANGE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS FLIP FLOPPING BETWEEN A CLOSED LOW OVER
AZ BRINGING UP REMNANT MOISTURE FROM `DISTURBANCE 1` IN THE FAR
ERN PACIFIC OR DRY AND COOL NW FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...LOW FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS MONDAY INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. VENTILATION
STILL LOOKS TO BE THE LOWEST ON THURSDAY WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENTS
FRIDAY/WEEKEND AS A PACIFIC TROUGH CROSSES OVER THE AREA. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE FLOWS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AND DURING THE TROUGH PASSAGE. NEAR TERM DRYING DUE TO THE
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION/ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WILL BE REPLACED WITH
SOME MOISTENING DUE TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY/WEEKEND.

THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS
INTENSIFIED OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. TEEN HUMIDITY VALUES CURRENTLY EXIST ALONG AND NORTH OF I40
MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST VENT RATE FORECAST
STILL SHOWS SOME POOR VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS...PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN PLAINS. THIS IS TIED TO NEAR
NORMAL MIXING HEIGHTS AND LIGHTER TRANSPORT WINDS. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL SLIDE CLOSER TO THE STATE TONIGHT AND LEAD TO ANOTHER
MODERATELY STRENGTH RADIATION INVERSION. MID SLOPE RECOVERIES WILL
TREND EVEN LOWER TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION SINKS
FURTHER SOUTH.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. A RIBBON OF BREEZY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT LOSE ITS STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN. DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE WHILE TEMPERATURES DECREASE
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL BE
SQUARELY CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
PRETTY LOW RH VALUES ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. THIS WOULD BE
COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...5 TO 10 DEGREES WEST AND A
FEW DEGREES EAST. STILL CANT RULE OUT SOME SINGLE DIGIT RH READINGS
BETWEEN GRANTS TO ALBUQUERQUE. MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD LOWER SOME DUE
TO THE RIDGE AXIS PROXIMITY THUS WIDESPREAD POOR RATES EXIST IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...INCLUDING THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. BETTER READINGS FOUND NEAR THE FRONT DUE TO
HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS.

MODERATE GAP WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. RH VALUES WILL
IMPROVE AS A RESULT OF THIS EAST/SOUTHEAST PUSH. THE STAGE WILL THEN
BE SET FOR BREEZIER SOUTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL USHER IN ADDITIONAL LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION ERODES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH/RIDGE BREAK DOWN. AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES...MID LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE THUS LEADING TO
STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS AND MUCH HIGHER VENT RATES. HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BE MUCH HIGHER AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DESPITE
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE. SOME DRIER SPOT SHOWERS CONTAINING
GUSTIER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST.

THE MAIN PACIFIC TROUGH PASSAGE IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS IS WHEN THE DYNAMICS LINE UP FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER GROWTH.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST POSSIBILITIES FOR MEASURABLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF. WINDS WOULD
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. HUMIDITY TRENDS LOOK TO BE
VARIABLE DUE TO VARIABLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS.
CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED WITH ADDED CLOUD COVER.
VENTILATION WOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY HIGH DUE TO THE HIGHER TRANSPORT
WINDS.

MODELS HAVE JUMPED AROUND A BIT ON WANTING TO CUT A PIECE OF ENERGY
OFF THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND KEEP IT NEAR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS MODEL IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE
FINISHING UP ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT STILL CUTS OFF A PIECE OF ENERGY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY. THUS SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR
WEATHER TRENDS EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IT CAN GO EITHER WAY. WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND HOPE TO GET A CLEARER PICTURE.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 292351 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
551 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.UPDATE...
DROPPED RED RIVER LOW TEMPERATURES NIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS IN
ACCORDANCE WITH LAST NIGHTS OBSERVATION AND GFS BASED MOS
GUIDANCE. ALSO NUDGED TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES BASED ON
LAST NIGHTS READINGS...THE LATEST MOS GUIDANCE AND A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT THAT WILL DROP INTO THE PLAINS LATE TONIGHT. ALSO ADDED
A FEW CLOUDS TO THE SKY GRIDS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT AND
NORTHEAST AREAS ON THURSDAY.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...526 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VERY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS TONIGHT
AND BRING A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH WITH A BRIEF INCREASE TO
NEAR 15 KTS FROM KTCC TO KCVN AND KROW.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD NEW MEXICO
FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. A DRY AIRMASS...HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL EFFICIENTLY OVERNIGHT. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
THURSDAY...ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGES TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM WILL HELP DRAW UP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. SLIGHT CHANCES
OF MAINLY LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATE- DAY FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR SAN DIEGO MAKING
INROADS EASTWARD TOWARD NM TODAY. RISING HEIGHTS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
RESULTING IN WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALL LOCALES THIS AFTERNOON.
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE THIS MORNINGS READINGS. RIDGE AXIS/HIGH CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD
THURSDAY. NORMALLY...VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE/BREAK
AS TEMPERATURES NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL ARE RELATIVELY WARM BUT A
DRY AND WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NE AND HELP
WITH MIXING LATE THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS
WILL PUSH WWD THROUGH THE CANYONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AROUND MID MORNING. MAIN SFC HIGH OVER NRN PLAINS SLIDES SE
FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SELY TO SLY RETURN FLOW SETUP. GFS
AND NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND PARTICULARLY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT DEVELOPING...EXPECT ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE INCREASES OVER NW NM SATURDAY IN
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE DEEP TROUGH MOVING ASHORE OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN THE AREAS TYPICALLY FAVORED BY RELATIVELY MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...GENERALLY FROM DULCE TO CHAMA AND THEN EAST
TO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
PERIOD OF OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS GOING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS
NOW SLOWER WITH DROPPING SNOW LEVELS. SNOW LEVEL DROP TO AROUND 8000
FT OVER THE NW QUARTER OF OF THE STATE BY ABOUT SUNRISE SUNDAY.
STILL LOOKING LIKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

GFS AND ECMWF STRUGGLING MIGHTILY BEYOND MONDAY MORNING WITH HOW
TO HANDLE A TRAILING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE MAIN LONG-WAVE TROUGH. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING ENOUGH
CHANGE RUN TO RUN TO COMPLETELY CHANGE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS FLIP FLOPPING BETWEEN A CLOSED LOW OVER
AZ BRINGING UP REMNANT MOISTURE FROM `DISTURBANCE 1` IN THE FAR
ERN PACIFIC OR DRY AND COOL NW FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...LOW FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS MONDAY INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. VENTILATION
STILL LOOKS TO BE THE LOWEST ON THURSDAY WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENTS
FRIDAY/WEEKEND AS A PACIFIC TROUGH CROSSES OVER THE AREA. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE FLOWS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AND DURING THE TROUGH PASSAGE. NEAR TERM DRYING DUE TO THE
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION/ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WILL BE REPLACED WITH
SOME MOISTENING DUE TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY/WEEKEND.

THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS
INTENSIFIED OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. TEEN HUMIDITY VALUES CURRENTLY EXIST ALONG AND NORTH OF I40
MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST VENT RATE FORECAST
STILL SHOWS SOME POOR VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS...PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN PLAINS. THIS IS TIED TO NEAR
NORMAL MIXING HEIGHTS AND LIGHTER TRANSPORT WINDS. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL SLIDE CLOSER TO THE STATE TONIGHT AND LEAD TO ANOTHER
MODERATELY STRENGTH RADIATION INVERSION. MID SLOPE RECOVERIES WILL
TREND EVEN LOWER TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION SINKS
FURTHER SOUTH.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. A RIBBON OF BREEZY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT LOSE ITS STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN. DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE WHILE TEMPERATURES DECREASE
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL BE
SQUARELY CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
PRETTY LOW RH VALUES ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. THIS WOULD BE
COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...5 TO 10 DEGREES WEST AND A
FEW DEGREES EAST. STILL CANT RULE OUT SOME SINGLE DIGIT RH READINGS
BETWEEN GRANTS TO ALBUQUERQUE. MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD LOWER SOME DUE
TO THE RIDGE AXIS PROXIMITY THUS WIDESPREAD POOR RATES EXIST IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...INCLUDING THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. BETTER READINGS FOUND NEAR THE FRONT DUE TO
HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS.

MODERATE GAP WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. RH VALUES WILL
IMPROVE AS A RESULT OF THIS EAST/SOUTHEAST PUSH. THE STAGE WILL THEN
BE SET FOR BREEZIER SOUTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL USHER IN ADDITIONAL LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION ERODES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH/RIDGE BREAK DOWN. AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES...MID LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE THUS LEADING TO
STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS AND MUCH HIGHER VENT RATES. HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BE MUCH HIGHER AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DESPITE
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE. SOME DRIER SPOT SHOWERS CONTAINING
GUSTIER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST.

THE MAIN PACIFIC TROUGH PASSAGE IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS IS WHEN THE DYNAMICS LINE UP FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER GROWTH.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST POSSIBILITIES FOR MEASURABLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF. WINDS WOULD
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. HUMIDITY TRENDS LOOK TO BE
VARIABLE DUE TO VARIABLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS.
CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED WITH ADDED CLOUD COVER.
VENTILATION WOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY HIGH DUE TO THE HIGHER TRANSPORT
WINDS.

MODELS HAVE JUMPED AROUND A BIT ON WANTING TO CUT A PIECE OF ENERGY
OFF THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND KEEP IT NEAR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS MODEL IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE
FINISHING UP ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT STILL CUTS OFF A PIECE OF ENERGY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY. THUS SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR
WEATHER TRENDS EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IT CAN GO EITHER WAY. WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND HOPE TO GET A CLEARER PICTURE.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44






000
FXUS65 KABQ 292326 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
526 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VERY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER CLEAR
SKIES. A WEAK BACK DOOR FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS TONIGHT
AND BRING A WIND SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH WITH A BRIEF INCREASE TO
NEAR 15 KTS FROM KTCC TO KCVN AND KROW.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD NEW MEXICO
FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. A DRY AIRMASS...HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL EFFICIENTLY OVERNIGHT. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
THURSDAY...ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGES TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM WILL HELP DRAW UP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. SLIGHT CHANCES
OF MAINLY LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATE- DAY FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR SAN DIEGO MAKING
INROADS EASTWARD TOWARD NM TODAY. RISING HEIGHTS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
RESULTING IN WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALL LOCALES THIS AFTERNOON.
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE THIS MORNINGS READINGS. RIDGE AXIS/HIGH CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD
THURSDAY. NORMALLY...VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE/BREAK
AS TEMPERATURES NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL ARE RELATIVELY WARM BUT A
DRY AND WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NE AND HELP
WITH MIXING LATE THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS
WILL PUSH WWD THROUGH THE CANYONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AROUND MID MORNING. MAIN SFC HIGH OVER NRN PLAINS SLIDES SE
FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SELY TO SLY RETURN FLOW SETUP. GFS
AND NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND PARTICULARLY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT DEVELOPING...EXPECT ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE INCREASES OVER NW NM SATURDAY IN
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE DEEP TROUGH MOVING ASHORE OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN THE AREAS TYPICALLY FAVORED BY RELATIVELY MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...GENERALLY FROM DULCE TO CHAMA AND THEN EAST
TO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
PERIOD OF OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS GOING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS
NOW SLOWER WITH DROPPING SNOW LEVELS. SNOW LEVEL DROP TO AROUND 8000
FT OVER THE NW QUARTER OF OF THE STATE BY ABOUT SUNRISE SUNDAY.
STILL LOOKING LIKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

GFS AND ECMWF STRUGGLING MIGHTILY BEYOND MONDAY MORNING WITH HOW
TO HANDLE A TRAILING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE MAIN LONG-WAVE TROUGH. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING ENOUGH
CHANGE RUN TO RUN TO COMPLETELY CHANGE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS FLIP FLOPPING BETWEEN A CLOSED LOW OVER
AZ BRINGING UP REMNANT MOISTURE FROM `DISTURBANCE 1` IN THE FAR
ERN PACIFIC OR DRY AND COOL NW FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...LOW FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS MONDAY INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. VENTILATION
STILL LOOKS TO BE THE LOWEST ON THURSDAY WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENTS
FRIDAY/WEEKEND AS A PACIFIC TROUGH CROSSES OVER THE AREA. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE FLOWS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AND DURING THE TROUGH PASSAGE. NEAR TERM DRYING DUE TO THE
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION/ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WILL BE REPLACED WITH
SOME MOISTENING DUE TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY/WEEKEND.

THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS
INTENSIFIED OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. TEEN HUMIDITY VALUES CURRENTLY EXIST ALONG AND NORTH OF I40
MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST VENT RATE FORECAST
STILL SHOWS SOME POOR VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS...PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN PLAINS. THIS IS TIED TO NEAR
NORMAL MIXING HEIGHTS AND LIGHTER TRANSPORT WINDS. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL SLIDE CLOSER TO THE STATE TONIGHT AND LEAD TO ANOTHER
MODERATELY STRENGTH RADIATION INVERSION. MID SLOPE RECOVERIES WILL
TREND EVEN LOWER TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION SINKS
FURTHER SOUTH.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. A RIBBON OF BREEZY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT LOSE ITS STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN. DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE WHILE TEMPERATURES DECREASE
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL BE
SQUARELY CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
PRETTY LOW RH VALUES ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. THIS WOULD BE
COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...5 TO 10 DEGREES WEST AND A
FEW DEGREES EAST. STILL CANT RULE OUT SOME SINGLE DIGIT RH READINGS
BETWEEN GRANTS TO ALBUQUERQUE. MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD LOWER SOME DUE
TO THE RIDGE AXIS PROXIMITY THUS WIDESPREAD POOR RATES EXIST IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...INCLUDING THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. BETTER READINGS FOUND NEAR THE FRONT DUE TO
HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS.

MODERATE GAP WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. RH VALUES WILL
IMPROVE AS A RESULT OF THIS EAST/SOUTHEAST PUSH. THE STAGE WILL THEN
BE SET FOR BREEZIER SOUTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL USHER IN ADDITIONAL LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION ERODES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH/RIDGE BREAK DOWN. AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES...MID LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE THUS LEADING TO
STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS AND MUCH HIGHER VENT RATES. HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BE MUCH HIGHER AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DESPITE
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE. SOME DRIER SPOT SHOWERS CONTAINING
GUSTIER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST.

THE MAIN PACIFIC TROUGH PASSAGE IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS IS WHEN THE DYNAMICS LINE UP FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER GROWTH.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST POSSIBILITIES FOR MEASURABLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF. WINDS WOULD
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. HUMIDITY TRENDS LOOK TO BE
VARIABLE DUE TO VARIABLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS.
CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED WITH ADDED CLOUD COVER.
VENTILATION WOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY HIGH DUE TO THE HIGHER TRANSPORT
WINDS.

MODELS HAVE JUMPED AROUND A BIT ON WANTING TO CUT A PIECE OF ENERGY
OFF THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND KEEP IT NEAR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS MODEL IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE
FINISHING UP ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT STILL CUTS OFF A PIECE OF ENERGY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY. THUS SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR
WEATHER TRENDS EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IT CAN GO EITHER WAY. WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND HOPE TO GET A CLEARER PICTURE.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 292132
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 PM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BUILD TOWARD NEW MEXICO
FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT. A DRY AIRMASS...HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO FALL EFFICIENTLY OVERNIGHT. AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD
THURSDAY...ANOTHER DAY WITH ABOVE AVERAGES TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.
THE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
STORM SYSTEM WILL HELP DRAW UP MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH. SLIGHT CHANCES
OF MAINLY LIGHT MOUNTAIN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED LATE- DAY FRIDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT. THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WILL KEEP CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO IN THE FORECAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR SAN DIEGO MAKING
INROADS EASTWARD TOWARD NM TODAY. RISING HEIGHTS AND PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE
RESULTING IN WARMER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES ALL LOCALES THIS AFTERNOON.
DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE...HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW FOR EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL
COOLING OVERNIGHT. LOW TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO BE SEVERAL DEGREES
ABOVE THIS MORNINGS READINGS. RIDGE AXIS/HIGH CENTER MOVES OVERHEAD
THURSDAY. NORMALLY...VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL BE SLOW TO ERODE/BREAK
AS TEMPERATURES NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL ARE RELATIVELY WARM BUT A
DRY AND WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP IN FROM THE NE AND HELP
WITH MIXING LATE THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST WINDS
WILL PUSH WWD THROUGH THE CANYONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
AROUND MID MORNING. MAIN SFC HIGH OVER NRN PLAINS SLIDES SE
FRIDAY...ALLOWING FOR A RETURN SELY TO SLY RETURN FLOW SETUP. GFS
AND NAM IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST FRIDAY AND PARTICULARLY FRIDAY NIGHT
AND WITH LARGE SCALE ASCENT DEVELOPING...EXPECT ISOLATED LIGHT
SHOWERS JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE ALONG AND WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE INCREASES OVER NW NM SATURDAY IN
STRONG SW FLOW ALOFT AHEAD OF THE DEEP TROUGH MOVING ASHORE OVER
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA. OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN THE AREAS TYPICALLY FAVORED BY RELATIVELY MOIST
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...GENERALLY FROM DULCE TO CHAMA AND THEN EAST
TO THE WEST SLOPES OF THE TUSAS MOUNTAINS. GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
PERIOD OF OROGRAPHIC SHOWERS GOING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS
NOW SLOWER WITH DROPPING SNOW LEVELS. SNOW LEVEL DROP TO AROUND 8000
FT OVER THE NW QUARTER OF OF THE STATE BY ABOUT SUNRISE SUNDAY.
STILL LOOKING LIKE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT WILL
BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE.

GFS AND ECMWF STRUGGLING MIGHTILY BEYOND MONDAY MORNING WITH HOW
TO HANDLE A TRAILING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH/SPEED MAX ON THE BACKSIDE
OF THE MAIN LONG-WAVE TROUGH. BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING ENOUGH
CHANGE RUN TO RUN TO COMPLETELY CHANGE THE SENSIBLE WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA. MODELS FLIP FLOPPING BETWEEN A CLOSED LOW OVER
AZ BRINGING UP REMNANT MOISTURE FROM `DISTURBANCE 1` IN THE FAR
ERN PACIFIC OR DRY AND COOL NW FLOW ALOFT. AS A RESULT...LOW FORECASTER
CONFIDENCE EXISTS MONDAY INTO MID WEEK NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO THE GRIDDED FORECAST. VENTILATION
STILL LOOKS TO BE THE LOWEST ON THURSDAY WITH RAPID IMPROVEMENTS
FRIDAY/WEEKEND AS A PACIFIC TROUGH CROSSES OVER THE AREA. STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE FLOWS OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF THE
TROUGH AND DURING THE TROUGH PASSAGE. NEAR TERM DRYING DUE TO THE
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION/ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WILL BE REPLACED WITH
SOME MOISTENING DUE TO SOUTH/SOUTHEAST FLOW FRIDAY/WEEKEND.

THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAS
INTENSIFIED OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD TO HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY. TEEN HUMIDITY VALUES CURRENTLY EXIST ALONG AND NORTH OF I40
MOST AREAS EXCEPT THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. LATEST VENT RATE FORECAST
STILL SHOWS SOME POOR VALUES ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS...PORTIONS
OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN PLAINS. THIS IS TIED TO NEAR
NORMAL MIXING HEIGHTS AND LIGHTER TRANSPORT WINDS. THE RIDGE AXIS
WILL SLIDE CLOSER TO THE STATE TONIGHT AND LEAD TO ANOTHER
MODERATELY STRENGTH RADIATION INVERSION. MID SLOPE RECOVERIES WILL
TREND EVEN LOWER TONIGHT AS THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION SINKS
FURTHER SOUTH.

THE UPPER RIDGE WILL SLIDE DIRECTLY OVER THE AREA THURSDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME...A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. A RIBBON OF BREEZY WINDS WILL BE FOUND ALONG THIS
FRONTAL PASSAGE BUT LOSE ITS STRENGTH AS IT NEARS THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN. DEWPOINTS SHOULD INCREASE WHILE TEMPERATURES DECREASE
SLIGHTLY BEHIND THE FRONT. THE MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION WILL BE
SQUARELY CENTERED OVER THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND SHOULD PROVIDE SOME
PRETTY LOW RH VALUES ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS. THIS WOULD BE
COMBINED WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...5 TO 10 DEGREES WEST AND A
FEW DEGREES EAST. STILL CANT RULE OUT SOME SINGLE DIGIT RH READINGS
BETWEEN GRANTS TO ALBUQUERQUE. MIXING HEIGHTS SHOULD LOWER SOME DUE
TO THE RIDGE AXIS PROXIMITY THUS WIDESPREAD POOR RATES EXIST IN THE
FORECAST ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE NORTH AND WEST...INCLUDING THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY. BETTER READINGS FOUND NEAR THE FRONT DUE TO
HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS.

MODERATE GAP WINDS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN...IMPACTING PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. RH VALUES WILL
IMPROVE AS A RESULT OF THIS EAST/SOUTHEAST PUSH. THE STAGE WILL THEN
BE SET FOR BREEZIER SOUTHERLY WINDS ON FRIDAY. THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS
WILL USHER IN ADDITIONAL LOW/MID LEVEL MOISTURE AS THE MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSION ERODES. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW IS IN RESPONSE TO THE
APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH/RIDGE BREAK DOWN. AS THE TROUGH
APPROACHES...MID LEVEL WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE THUS LEADING TO
STRONGER TRANSPORT WINDS AND MUCH HIGHER VENT RATES. HUMIDITY VALUES
WILL BE MUCH HIGHER AND CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED DESPITE
THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE. SOME DRIER SPOT SHOWERS CONTAINING
GUSTIER WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST.

THE MAIN PACIFIC TROUGH PASSAGE IS STILL EXPECTED FOR THE WEEKEND.
THIS IS WHEN THE DYNAMICS LINE UP FOR ADDITIONAL SHOWER GROWTH.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE BEST POSSIBILITIES FOR MEASURABLE
MOISTURE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST THIRD TO HALF. WINDS WOULD
INCREASE...ESPECIALLY ON SATURDAY. HUMIDITY TRENDS LOOK TO BE
VARIABLE DUE TO VARIABLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINTS.
CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES ARE NOT ANTICIPATED WITH ADDED CLOUD COVER.
VENTILATION WOULD ALSO BE FAIRLY HIGH DUE TO THE HIGHER TRANSPORT
WINDS.

MODELS HAVE JUMPED AROUND A BIT ON WANTING TO CUT A PIECE OF ENERGY
OFF THE PACIFIC TROUGH AND KEEP IT NEAR THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE GFS MODEL IS NOW MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE
FINISHING UP ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT. THE LATEST ECMWF HAS TRENDED A
LITTLE MORE PROGRESSIVE BUT STILL CUTS OFF A PIECE OF ENERGY TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE STATE ON TUESDAY. THUS SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS FOR
WEATHER TRENDS EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. DURING THIS TIME OF
YEAR...IT CAN GO EITHER WAY. WILL BE MONITORING MODEL TRENDS DURING
THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND HOPE TO GET A CLEARER PICTURE.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND SHIFTS DUE TO
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. MODERATE DRAINAGE WIND EXPECTED AT SAF THURS MORNING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  30  68  38  68 /   0   0   0   5
DULCE...........................  22  69  23  65 /   0   0   0  10
CUBA............................  28  68  31  62 /   0   0   5   5
GALLUP..........................  23  71  32  70 /   0   0   0  10
EL MORRO........................  21  68  29  64 /   0   0   5  20
GRANTS..........................  24  71  30  66 /   0   0   0  10
QUEMADO.........................  29  70  37  64 /   0   0   5  10
GLENWOOD........................  33  78  36  72 /   0   0   0   5
CHAMA...........................  22  64  24  60 /   0   0   5  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  38  64  39  59 /   0   0   5  10
PECOS...........................  35  63  33  56 /   0   0   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  26  66  29  61 /   0   0   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  33  55  32  50 /   0   0   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  16  61  17  55 /   0   0   5   5
TAOS............................  22  67  27  61 /   0   0   5   5
MORA............................  31  64  30  58 /   0   0   5   5
ESPANOLA........................  38  70  39  65 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE........................  37  64  36  59 /   0   0   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  35  68  36  63 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  45  68  44  66 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  42  70  43  68 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  37  72  39  70 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  41  71  42  69 /   0   0   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  33  72  34  70 /   0   0   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  40  71  41  69 /   0   0   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  41  75  39  71 /   0   0   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  33  65  35  61 /   0   0   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  32  67  33  63 /   0   0   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  27  70  27  65 /   0   0   5   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  36  66  33  60 /   0   0   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  41  68  38  64 /   0   0   5   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  41  71  41  67 /   0   0   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  42  70  36  63 /   0   0  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  34  61  31  56 /   0   0   5   5
RATON...........................  32  65  29  60 /   0   0   0   5
SPRINGER........................  30  66  27  60 /   0   0   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  34  66  29  59 /   0   0   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  44  66  35  59 /   0   0   0   5
ROY.............................  37  66  33  58 /   0   0   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  43  72  38  66 /   0   0   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  44  71  39  64 /   0   0   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  44  72  38  67 /   0   0   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  45  71  41  64 /   0   0   5   5
PORTALES........................  44  72  39  65 /   0   0   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  44  70  40  64 /   0   0   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  43  73  45  65 /   0   0  10   5
PICACHO.........................  43  69  43  61 /   0   0  10  10
ELK.............................  44  68  41  57 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33




















000
FXUS65 KABQ 291748 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1148 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WIND SHIFTS DUE TO
A WEAK BACK DOOR COLD FRONT EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS. MODERATE DRAINAGE WIND EXPECTED AT SAF THURS MORNING.

50

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...316 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF NICE AND QUIET DAYS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED...ACTIVE WEATHER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO RIDGING THURSDAY. THIS
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE LOW LEVELS WILL
SEE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RISING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY AND MAY BRING A TEMPORARY HALT TO THE INCREASING
SHOWER ACTIVITY. BUT A DEEPER TROUGH AND LIKELY CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FINE THURSDAY IS ON TAP. A CHILLY START WILL GIVE WAY TO A
PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND NOT MUCH WIND. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE...HARD FREEZE WARNINGS THROUGH MID
MORNING.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NM TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THURSDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND THE FLOW AT HE SURFACE
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WE COULD START TO
SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ZONES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY WILL SPLIT...WITH PART
OF IT LIFTING NORTHEAST AND THE REMAINING ENERGY MOVING SOUTH. THIS
ENERGY WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER AZ AND SONORA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...DROP SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTHWEST TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST
LATER NEXT WEEK. THIS PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN A GOOD
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FOR ALL AREAS NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE COULD GET INVOLVED IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME
PERIOD...BRINGING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...FAVORING THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM WITH ANY SNOW CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THE BEST SHOT FOR ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

STAY TUNED AS NEXT WEEK COULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUE TO BE VENTILATION
AND LOWER HUMIDITIES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING OVER THE STATE
TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IT WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR
ALLOWING HUMIDITIES TO DROP NEAR OR JUST BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NM. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...ALLOWING FOR STRONG NIGHTTIME INVERSIONS AND LIMITING
VENTILATION. POOR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF ZONE
106 AND 109...AND PORTIONS OF ZONES 105 AND 101. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
SQUARE OVER NM ON THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. WINDS AND BETTER MIXING BEHIND A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST WILL KEEP VENTILATION IN THE FAIR TO
GOOD CATEGORIES. THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A LIGHT TO
PERHAPS BREEZY AT TIMES GAP WIND.

HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE POOR TO FAIR ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL NM...WITH AREAS ALONG THE AZ...CO AND TX BORDERS
HAVING GOOD OR BETTER RECOVERIES. HUMIDITIES TREND UPWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT WASHES OUT ON FRIDAY...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERLY...DRAWING UP SOME MODEST GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
STATE. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE MOISTURE WILL
FAVOR WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM. SIMULTANEOUSLY...THE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN SW FLOW WILL CROSS NM. THE
TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ITS IDEAL TO AID IN
SHOWER AND T-STORM DEVELOPMENT...WHICH IS WHY EVEN THE GFS HAS
BACKED OFF ON QPF FOR FRIDAY. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL BE SPOTTY...BUT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS.
NONETHELESS...HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE AS WILL VENTILATION. FRIDAY
NIGHT...SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AS
A RESULT OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
STILL...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPOTTY.

WINDS WILL TREND UPWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE STATE. THE INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD SUNDAY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. PROLONGED
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL FAVOR ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE STATE. EARLY NEXT WEEK...ADDITIONAL
ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL DIVE DOWN INTO
ARIZONA...PERHAPS CLOSING OFF INTO A LOW. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM
A YET-TO-BE FORMED TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY STREAM UP AHEAD OF IT. IT IS
TOO EARLY TO SAY FOR SURE...BUT THIS COULD MEAN BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA BY TUES/WED.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 291128 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
528 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NO AVIATION
HAZARDS EXPECTED.


34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...316 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF NICE AND QUIET DAYS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED...ACTIVE WEATHER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO RIDGING THURSDAY. THIS
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE LOW LEVELS WILL
SEE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RISING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY AND MAY BRING A TEMPORARY HALT TO THE INCREASING
SHOWER ACTIVITY. BUT A DEEPER TROUGH AND LIKELY CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FINE THURSDAY IS ON TAP. A CHILLY START WILL GIVE WAY TO A
PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND NOT MUCH WIND. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE...HARD FREEZE WARNINGS THROUGH MID
MORNING.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NM TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THURSDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND THE FLOW AT HE SURFACE
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WE COULD START TO
SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ZONES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY WILL SPLIT...WITH PART
OF IT LIFTING NORTHEAST AND THE REMAINING ENERGY MOVING SOUTH. THIS
ENERGY WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER AZ AND SONORA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...DROP SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTHWEST TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST
LATER NEXT WEEK. THIS PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN A GOOD
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FOR ALL AREAS NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE COULD GET INVOLVED IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME
PERIOD...BRINGING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...FAVORING THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM WITH ANY SNOW CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THE BEST SHOT FOR ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

STAY TUNED AS NEXT WEEK COULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUE TO BE VENTILATION
AND LOWER HUMIDITIES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING OVER THE STATE
TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IT WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR
ALLOWING HUMIDITIES TO DROP NEAR OR JUST BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NM. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...ALLOWING FOR STRONG NIGHTTIME INVERSIONS AND LIMITING
VENTILATION. POOR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF ZONE
106 AND 109...AND PORTIONS OF ZONES 105 AND 101. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
SQUARE OVER NM ON THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. WINDS AND BETTER MIXING BEHIND A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST WILL KEEP VENTILATION IN THE FAIR TO
GOOD CATEGORIES. THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A LIGHT TO
PERHAPS BREEZY AT TIMES GAP WIND.

HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE POOR TO FAIR ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL NM...WITH AREAS ALONG THE AZ...CO AND TX BORDERS
HAVING GOOD OR BETTER RECOVERIES. HUMIDITIES TREND UPWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT WASHES OUT ON FRIDAY...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERLY...DRAWING UP SOME MODEST GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
STATE. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE MOISTURE WILL
FAVOR WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM. SIMULTANEOUSLY...THE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN SW FLOW WILL CROSS NM. THE
TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ITS IDEAL TO AID IN
SHOWER AND T-STORM DEVELOPMENT...WHICH IS WHY EVEN THE GFS HAS
BACKED OFF ON QPF FOR FRIDAY. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL BE SPOTTY...BUT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS.
NONETHELESS...HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE AS WILL VENTILATION. FRIDAY
NIGHT...SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AS
A RESULT OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
STILL...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPOTTY.

WINDS WILL TREND UPWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE STATE. THE INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD SUNDAY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. PROLONGED
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL FAVOR ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE STATE. EARLY NEXT WEEK...ADDITIONAL
ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL DIVE DOWN INTO
ARIZONA...PERHAPS CLOSING OFF INTO A LOW. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM
A YET-TO-BE FORMED TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY STREAM UP AHEAD OF IT. IT IS
TOO EARLY TO SAY FOR SURE...BUT THIS COULD MEAN BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA BY TUES/WED.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 290916
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
316 AM MDT WED OCT 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COUPLE OF NICE AND QUIET DAYS WILL GIVE WAY TO INCREASINGLY
UNSETTLED...ACTIVE WEATHER FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

NORTHWEST FLOW TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO RIDGING THURSDAY. THIS
RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST FRIDAY WITH A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPING
AND STRENGTHENING THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WHILE LOW LEVELS WILL
SEE AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA WITH PRECIPITATION CHANCES RISING ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL AREAS. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CROSS THE
STATE SUNDAY AND MAY BRING A TEMPORARY HALT TO THE INCREASING
SHOWER ACTIVITY. BUT A DEEPER TROUGH AND LIKELY CLOSED LOW IS
FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A FINE THURSDAY IS ON TAP. A CHILLY START WILL GIVE WAY TO A
PLEASANT AFTERNOON WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND NOT MUCH WIND. WILL
CONTINUE WITH THE FREEZE...HARD FREEZE WARNINGS THROUGH MID
MORNING.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER NM TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
ANOTHER CLEAR AND CHILLY NIGHT TONIGHT WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A DRY
AND COMFORTABLE THURSDAY. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTH
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT.

THE RIDGE ALOFT SHIFTS EAST FRIDAY AND THE FLOW AT HE SURFACE
WILL INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST. WE COULD START TO
SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER MAINLY THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
ZONES FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM THE WEST SUNDAY WILL SPLIT...WITH PART
OF IT LIFTING NORTHEAST AND THE REMAINING ENERGY MOVING SOUTH. THIS
ENERGY WILL DEEPEN INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER AZ AND SONORA EARLY NEXT
WEEK...DROP SOUTH OR EVEN SOUTHWEST TUESDAY...THEN SLOWLY MOVE EAST
LATER NEXT WEEK. THIS PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BRING IN A GOOD
SUPPLY OF MOISTURE FOR ALL AREAS NEXT WEEK. IN ADDITION...A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE COULD GET INVOLVED IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME
PERIOD...BRINGING COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE...FAVORING THE
SOUTHEAST. THIS WILL BE A WARM SYSTEM WITH ANY SNOW CONFINED TO THE
HIGHER NORTHERN MOUNTAIN PEAKS. THE BEST SHOT FOR ANY ACCUMULATION
WILL BE SUNDAY NIGHT.

STAY TUNED AS NEXT WEEK COULD BECOME QUITE ACTIVE. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN THE NEAR TERM CONTINUE TO BE VENTILATION
AND LOWER HUMIDITIES. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING MOVING OVER THE STATE
TODAY AND THURSDAY WILL RAISE TEMPERATURES BACK UP TO BETWEEN 5 AND
10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. IT WILL ALSO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR
ALLOWING HUMIDITIES TO DROP NEAR OR JUST BELOW 15 PERCENT ACROSS
MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL...NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL NM. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT...ALLOWING FOR STRONG NIGHTTIME INVERSIONS AND LIMITING
VENTILATION. POOR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF ZONE
106 AND 109...AND PORTIONS OF ZONES 105 AND 101. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS
SQUARE OVER NM ON THURSDAY...WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION IS EXPECTED
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM. WINDS AND BETTER MIXING BEHIND A BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST WILL KEEP VENTILATION IN THE FAIR TO
GOOD CATEGORIES. THE BACK DOOR FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE GAPS OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...RESULTING IN A LIGHT TO
PERHAPS BREEZY AT TIMES GAP WIND.

HUMIDITY RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL GENERALLY BE POOR TO FAIR ACROSS
MUCH OF CENTRAL NM...WITH AREAS ALONG THE AZ...CO AND TX BORDERS
HAVING GOOD OR BETTER RECOVERIES. HUMIDITIES TREND UPWARD THURSDAY
NIGHT.

AS THE BACK DOOR FRONT WASHES OUT ON FRIDAY...FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTH
AND SOUTHEASTERLY...DRAWING UP SOME MODEST GULF MOISTURE INTO THE
STATE. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE MOISTURE WILL
FAVOR WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM. SIMULTANEOUSLY...THE RIDGE
WILL SHIFT EAST AND A WEAK DISTURBANCE IN SW FLOW WILL CROSS NM. THE
TIMING OF THE DISTURBANCE DOES NOT LOOK LIKE ITS IDEAL TO AID IN
SHOWER AND T-STORM DEVELOPMENT...WHICH IS WHY EVEN THE GFS HAS
BACKED OFF ON QPF FOR FRIDAY. ANY SHOWERS OR STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP
WILL BE SPOTTY...BUT WILL BE CAPABLE OF GUSTY DOWNBURST WINDS.
NONETHELESS...HUMIDITIES WILL INCREASE AS WILL VENTILATION. FRIDAY
NIGHT...SOME MODELS SUGGEST THAT MORE SHOWERS/TSTMS WILL DEVELOP AS
A RESULT OF THE LARGE SCALE LIFT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.
STILL...MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE SPOTTY.

WINDS WILL TREND UPWARD OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
APPROACHES THE STATE. THE INITIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL SHIFT
EASTWARD SUNDAY JUST NORTHWEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. PROLONGED
SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH SOME MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL FAVOR ANY PRECIPITATION THAT DEVELOPS OVER
THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF THE STATE. EARLY NEXT WEEK...ADDITIONAL
ENERGY ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL DIVE DOWN INTO
ARIZONA...PERHAPS CLOSING OFF INTO A LOW. MEANWHILE...MOISTURE FROM
A YET-TO-BE FORMED TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY STREAM UP AHEAD OF IT. IT IS
TOO EARLY TO SAY FOR SURE...BUT THIS COULD MEAN BETTER CHANCES FOR
PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA BY TUES/WED.

34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VERY QUIET CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES. MOST AREAS WILL SEE LIGHT TERRAIN DOMINATED
WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AROUND KLVS WHERE BARRIER FLOW
WILL HELP INCREASE SOUTHWEST WINDS TO NEAR 15KTS BRIEFLY MID TO
LATE AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  67  29  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  65  21  69  21 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  67  28  69  30 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  70  24  72  29 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  67  28  68  28 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  71  24  71  28 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  68  33  69  35 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  76  34  78  36 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  63  21  65  24 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  65  38  65  36 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  64  37  64  32 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  64  26  66  28 /   0   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  55  26  56  22 /   0   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  60  19  61  19 /   0   0   0   0
TAOS............................  65  22  66  24 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  66  33  64  28 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  70  37  71  34 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  66  36  65  35 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  69  33  69  33 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  69  41  69  42 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  72  43  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  73  38  73  37 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  73  39  71  43 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  74  32  73  33 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  73  39  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  75  39  74  39 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  68  34  67  32 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  68  32  69  30 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  71  29  70  25 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  69  38  67  33 /   0   0   0   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  69  42  68  38 /   0   0   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  72  40  72  40 /   0   0   0   5
RUIDOSO.........................  70  42  68  40 /   0   0   0  10
CAPULIN.........................  68  32  62  31 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................  71  29  66  29 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  72  27  67  26 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  70  34  67  30 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  70  41  65  34 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  68  35  66  34 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  74  41  71  38 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA ROSA......................  75  41  71  40 /   0   0   0   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  75  41  71  37 /   0   0   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  71  45  70  40 /   0   0   0   5
PORTALES........................  72  44  71  41 /   0   0   0   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  71  42  70  41 /   0   0   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  73  44  74  45 /   0   0   0  10
PICACHO.........................  71  41  71  45 /   0   0   0  10
ELK.............................  68  43  69  45 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501.

&&

$$

40






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