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000
FXUS65 KABQ 220533
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1133 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVG NORTHEAST OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL.
THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PERSIST AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TRACKS
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCD IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR UNTIL AROUND 16Z FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL AND SFC LEE TROUGH
KEEPS LOW LEVEL WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...751 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LESSEN POPS ACROSS THE WEST...AND TWEAK THEM
ACROSS THE EAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. NOW THAT WE HAVE LOSS
AFTERNOON HEATING...MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST
HAS DIMINISHED. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE NO MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE HRRR EVEN SUGGESTS
THAT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS. MEANWHILE...THE
LARGER AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE EAST HAS MOSTLY
DIMINISHED...BUT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS...AND THE OCCASIONAL
RUMBLE OF THUNDER...HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS. THE HRRR
SUGGESTS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY
PERSIST LONGER AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET POKES INTO THE
EAST. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS NEW
MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND FORCE THE RECENT MOIST AND RELATIVELY
COOL PATTERN OUT OF THE AREA. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL BUT STILL ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY...USHERING IN
BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL
STORM SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDED TAPERING BACK SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ADDED
SOME FOG IN MORENO VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO THE PECOS VALLEY TMRW
NIGHT. ALSO RAISED TEMPS WELL ABOVE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE OVER THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO COME IN LINE BETTER WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPS FROM WEST TEXAS OFFICES.

THE 2030Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH AXIS
RACING EAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH A SHARP PUNCH OF DRY
AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE SURFACE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS LAGGING OVER CENTRAL NV AND NORTHWEST UT. THE ENTIRE UPPER TROUGH
FEATURE IS SHOWN BY MODELS TO ESSENTIALLY SHEAR APART AND LIFT WELL
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAVE NM IN GENERALLY WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. ALL IN
ALL THIS HAS TRENDED FASTER SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND LOWERED POP
VALUES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THE EAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SOCKED IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE 1ST PART OF
WEDNESDAY.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 591DM H5 HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
DESERT SW BY LATE THURSDAY...AND BRING SOME REALLY SPECTACULAR
WEATHER TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
VISIBLE WITHIN NM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE VERY NICE
VIEWING CONDITIONS. TRENDED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES THURSDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH
WARMER READINGS FROM THE WEST TX OFFICES. VERY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...MINIMAL SURFACE LEE TROUGHING OVER
THE PLAINS...AND LATE OCTOBER SUN WOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS
ABOVE RECORDS...BUT WILL GET ANOTHER CHANCE TO REVISIT LATER.

LEE TROUGHING WILL BE NOTABLE SATURDAY SO THAT COULD ACTUALLY BE THE
WARMEST DAY FOR THE EAST. TIMING ON THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN HAS BECOME
MORE DISJOINTED BETWEEN MODELS...SO CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY IS PROGGED TO BE THE BREEZIEST
FOR THE EAST WITH STRONGER LEE TROUGHING...WHILE THE WEST COOLS OFF.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE FLIP/FLOPPING ON A POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
FCST AREA...NOT AS MOIST ELSEWHERE BUT STILL MORE SO THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
REST OF AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE ACROSS SE AND E CENTRAL
SECTIONS. DRIER WED...THOUGH STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE SE PLAINS AND SACRAMENTO MTNS
VICINITY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND FURTHER DRYING TREND BEGINNING AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. UPPER LOW EARLIER
NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS SLOWLY OPENING UP INTO A WAVE AND SHOULD SLOWLY
EASE ACROSS S CENTRAL INTO SE NM BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MID MORN WED.
BROADER BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP USHER THAT SYSTEM
EAST OF THE STATE LATER WED...AIDING TRANSITION TO DRIER CONDITIONS
AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE COMING
INTO THE STATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. AS A RESULT MINIMUM HUMIDITY
WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THU
AND FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK. AREAS EAST
OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND NEAR TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY STILL
SEE FAIR TO GOOD RATES WED AND THU...LOWERING A BIT FRI. RATES NO
BETTER AND GENERALLY LOWER ELSEWHERE.

A VERY SHARP INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS...MIXING HEIGHTS AND THUS
VENT RATES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE NOTICEABLY AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE.
WHILE NEAR SFC WINDS REACH CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS...MAINLY
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. AT THIS TIME STILL LOOKS LIKE MIN RH LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH NEWER
FCST MODEL RUNS AS SUNDAY MAY END UP WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN
1 AND 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 220533
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1133 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVG NORTHEAST OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL.
THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PERSIST AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TRACKS
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCD IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR UNTIL AROUND 16Z FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL AND SFC LEE TROUGH
KEEPS LOW LEVEL WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...751 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LESSEN POPS ACROSS THE WEST...AND TWEAK THEM
ACROSS THE EAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. NOW THAT WE HAVE LOSS
AFTERNOON HEATING...MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST
HAS DIMINISHED. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE NO MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE HRRR EVEN SUGGESTS
THAT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS. MEANWHILE...THE
LARGER AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE EAST HAS MOSTLY
DIMINISHED...BUT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS...AND THE OCCASIONAL
RUMBLE OF THUNDER...HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS. THE HRRR
SUGGESTS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY
PERSIST LONGER AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET POKES INTO THE
EAST. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS NEW
MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND FORCE THE RECENT MOIST AND RELATIVELY
COOL PATTERN OUT OF THE AREA. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL BUT STILL ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY...USHERING IN
BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL
STORM SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDED TAPERING BACK SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ADDED
SOME FOG IN MORENO VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO THE PECOS VALLEY TMRW
NIGHT. ALSO RAISED TEMPS WELL ABOVE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE OVER THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO COME IN LINE BETTER WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPS FROM WEST TEXAS OFFICES.

THE 2030Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH AXIS
RACING EAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH A SHARP PUNCH OF DRY
AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE SURFACE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS LAGGING OVER CENTRAL NV AND NORTHWEST UT. THE ENTIRE UPPER TROUGH
FEATURE IS SHOWN BY MODELS TO ESSENTIALLY SHEAR APART AND LIFT WELL
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAVE NM IN GENERALLY WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. ALL IN
ALL THIS HAS TRENDED FASTER SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND LOWERED POP
VALUES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THE EAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SOCKED IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE 1ST PART OF
WEDNESDAY.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 591DM H5 HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
DESERT SW BY LATE THURSDAY...AND BRING SOME REALLY SPECTACULAR
WEATHER TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
VISIBLE WITHIN NM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE VERY NICE
VIEWING CONDITIONS. TRENDED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES THURSDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH
WARMER READINGS FROM THE WEST TX OFFICES. VERY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...MINIMAL SURFACE LEE TROUGHING OVER
THE PLAINS...AND LATE OCTOBER SUN WOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS
ABOVE RECORDS...BUT WILL GET ANOTHER CHANCE TO REVISIT LATER.

LEE TROUGHING WILL BE NOTABLE SATURDAY SO THAT COULD ACTUALLY BE THE
WARMEST DAY FOR THE EAST. TIMING ON THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN HAS BECOME
MORE DISJOINTED BETWEEN MODELS...SO CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY IS PROGGED TO BE THE BREEZIEST
FOR THE EAST WITH STRONGER LEE TROUGHING...WHILE THE WEST COOLS OFF.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE FLIP/FLOPPING ON A POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
FCST AREA...NOT AS MOIST ELSEWHERE BUT STILL MORE SO THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
REST OF AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE ACROSS SE AND E CENTRAL
SECTIONS. DRIER WED...THOUGH STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE SE PLAINS AND SACRAMENTO MTNS
VICINITY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND FURTHER DRYING TREND BEGINNING AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. UPPER LOW EARLIER
NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS SLOWLY OPENING UP INTO A WAVE AND SHOULD SLOWLY
EASE ACROSS S CENTRAL INTO SE NM BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MID MORN WED.
BROADER BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP USHER THAT SYSTEM
EAST OF THE STATE LATER WED...AIDING TRANSITION TO DRIER CONDITIONS
AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE COMING
INTO THE STATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. AS A RESULT MINIMUM HUMIDITY
WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THU
AND FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK. AREAS EAST
OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND NEAR TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY STILL
SEE FAIR TO GOOD RATES WED AND THU...LOWERING A BIT FRI. RATES NO
BETTER AND GENERALLY LOWER ELSEWHERE.

A VERY SHARP INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS...MIXING HEIGHTS AND THUS
VENT RATES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE NOTICEABLY AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE.
WHILE NEAR SFC WINDS REACH CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS...MAINLY
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. AT THIS TIME STILL LOOKS LIKE MIN RH LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH NEWER
FCST MODEL RUNS AS SUNDAY MAY END UP WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN
1 AND 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 220533
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1133 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVG NORTHEAST OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL.
THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PERSIST AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TRACKS
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCD IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR UNTIL AROUND 16Z FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL AND SFC LEE TROUGH
KEEPS LOW LEVEL WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...751 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LESSEN POPS ACROSS THE WEST...AND TWEAK THEM
ACROSS THE EAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. NOW THAT WE HAVE LOSS
AFTERNOON HEATING...MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST
HAS DIMINISHED. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE NO MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE HRRR EVEN SUGGESTS
THAT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS. MEANWHILE...THE
LARGER AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE EAST HAS MOSTLY
DIMINISHED...BUT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS...AND THE OCCASIONAL
RUMBLE OF THUNDER...HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS. THE HRRR
SUGGESTS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY
PERSIST LONGER AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET POKES INTO THE
EAST. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS NEW
MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND FORCE THE RECENT MOIST AND RELATIVELY
COOL PATTERN OUT OF THE AREA. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL BUT STILL ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY...USHERING IN
BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL
STORM SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDED TAPERING BACK SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ADDED
SOME FOG IN MORENO VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO THE PECOS VALLEY TMRW
NIGHT. ALSO RAISED TEMPS WELL ABOVE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE OVER THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO COME IN LINE BETTER WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPS FROM WEST TEXAS OFFICES.

THE 2030Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH AXIS
RACING EAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH A SHARP PUNCH OF DRY
AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE SURFACE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS LAGGING OVER CENTRAL NV AND NORTHWEST UT. THE ENTIRE UPPER TROUGH
FEATURE IS SHOWN BY MODELS TO ESSENTIALLY SHEAR APART AND LIFT WELL
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAVE NM IN GENERALLY WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. ALL IN
ALL THIS HAS TRENDED FASTER SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND LOWERED POP
VALUES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THE EAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SOCKED IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE 1ST PART OF
WEDNESDAY.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 591DM H5 HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
DESERT SW BY LATE THURSDAY...AND BRING SOME REALLY SPECTACULAR
WEATHER TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
VISIBLE WITHIN NM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE VERY NICE
VIEWING CONDITIONS. TRENDED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES THURSDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH
WARMER READINGS FROM THE WEST TX OFFICES. VERY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...MINIMAL SURFACE LEE TROUGHING OVER
THE PLAINS...AND LATE OCTOBER SUN WOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS
ABOVE RECORDS...BUT WILL GET ANOTHER CHANCE TO REVISIT LATER.

LEE TROUGHING WILL BE NOTABLE SATURDAY SO THAT COULD ACTUALLY BE THE
WARMEST DAY FOR THE EAST. TIMING ON THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN HAS BECOME
MORE DISJOINTED BETWEEN MODELS...SO CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY IS PROGGED TO BE THE BREEZIEST
FOR THE EAST WITH STRONGER LEE TROUGHING...WHILE THE WEST COOLS OFF.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE FLIP/FLOPPING ON A POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
FCST AREA...NOT AS MOIST ELSEWHERE BUT STILL MORE SO THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
REST OF AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE ACROSS SE AND E CENTRAL
SECTIONS. DRIER WED...THOUGH STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE SE PLAINS AND SACRAMENTO MTNS
VICINITY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND FURTHER DRYING TREND BEGINNING AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. UPPER LOW EARLIER
NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS SLOWLY OPENING UP INTO A WAVE AND SHOULD SLOWLY
EASE ACROSS S CENTRAL INTO SE NM BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MID MORN WED.
BROADER BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP USHER THAT SYSTEM
EAST OF THE STATE LATER WED...AIDING TRANSITION TO DRIER CONDITIONS
AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE COMING
INTO THE STATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. AS A RESULT MINIMUM HUMIDITY
WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THU
AND FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK. AREAS EAST
OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND NEAR TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY STILL
SEE FAIR TO GOOD RATES WED AND THU...LOWERING A BIT FRI. RATES NO
BETTER AND GENERALLY LOWER ELSEWHERE.

A VERY SHARP INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS...MIXING HEIGHTS AND THUS
VENT RATES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE NOTICEABLY AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE.
WHILE NEAR SFC WINDS REACH CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS...MAINLY
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. AT THIS TIME STILL LOOKS LIKE MIN RH LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH NEWER
FCST MODEL RUNS AS SUNDAY MAY END UP WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN
1 AND 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 220533
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1133 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
ISOLD SHOWERS AND TSTMS MOVG NORTHEAST OVER THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL.
THIS ACTIVITY LOOKS TO PERSIST AS THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TRACKS
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH 12Z. OTHERWISE...HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCD IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR UNTIL AROUND 16Z FROM THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL AND SFC LEE TROUGH
KEEPS LOW LEVEL WINDS GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...751 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LESSEN POPS ACROSS THE WEST...AND TWEAK THEM
ACROSS THE EAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. NOW THAT WE HAVE LOSS
AFTERNOON HEATING...MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST
HAS DIMINISHED. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE NO MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE HRRR EVEN SUGGESTS
THAT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS. MEANWHILE...THE
LARGER AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE EAST HAS MOSTLY
DIMINISHED...BUT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS...AND THE OCCASIONAL
RUMBLE OF THUNDER...HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS. THE HRRR
SUGGESTS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY
PERSIST LONGER AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET POKES INTO THE
EAST. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS NEW
MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND FORCE THE RECENT MOIST AND RELATIVELY
COOL PATTERN OUT OF THE AREA. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL BUT STILL ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY...USHERING IN
BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL
STORM SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDED TAPERING BACK SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ADDED
SOME FOG IN MORENO VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO THE PECOS VALLEY TMRW
NIGHT. ALSO RAISED TEMPS WELL ABOVE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE OVER THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO COME IN LINE BETTER WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPS FROM WEST TEXAS OFFICES.

THE 2030Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH AXIS
RACING EAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH A SHARP PUNCH OF DRY
AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE SURFACE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS LAGGING OVER CENTRAL NV AND NORTHWEST UT. THE ENTIRE UPPER TROUGH
FEATURE IS SHOWN BY MODELS TO ESSENTIALLY SHEAR APART AND LIFT WELL
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAVE NM IN GENERALLY WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. ALL IN
ALL THIS HAS TRENDED FASTER SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND LOWERED POP
VALUES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THE EAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SOCKED IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE 1ST PART OF
WEDNESDAY.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 591DM H5 HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
DESERT SW BY LATE THURSDAY...AND BRING SOME REALLY SPECTACULAR
WEATHER TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
VISIBLE WITHIN NM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE VERY NICE
VIEWING CONDITIONS. TRENDED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES THURSDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH
WARMER READINGS FROM THE WEST TX OFFICES. VERY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...MINIMAL SURFACE LEE TROUGHING OVER
THE PLAINS...AND LATE OCTOBER SUN WOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS
ABOVE RECORDS...BUT WILL GET ANOTHER CHANCE TO REVISIT LATER.

LEE TROUGHING WILL BE NOTABLE SATURDAY SO THAT COULD ACTUALLY BE THE
WARMEST DAY FOR THE EAST. TIMING ON THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN HAS BECOME
MORE DISJOINTED BETWEEN MODELS...SO CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY IS PROGGED TO BE THE BREEZIEST
FOR THE EAST WITH STRONGER LEE TROUGHING...WHILE THE WEST COOLS OFF.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE FLIP/FLOPPING ON A POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
FCST AREA...NOT AS MOIST ELSEWHERE BUT STILL MORE SO THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
REST OF AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE ACROSS SE AND E CENTRAL
SECTIONS. DRIER WED...THOUGH STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE SE PLAINS AND SACRAMENTO MTNS
VICINITY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND FURTHER DRYING TREND BEGINNING AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. UPPER LOW EARLIER
NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS SLOWLY OPENING UP INTO A WAVE AND SHOULD SLOWLY
EASE ACROSS S CENTRAL INTO SE NM BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MID MORN WED.
BROADER BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP USHER THAT SYSTEM
EAST OF THE STATE LATER WED...AIDING TRANSITION TO DRIER CONDITIONS
AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE COMING
INTO THE STATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. AS A RESULT MINIMUM HUMIDITY
WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THU
AND FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK. AREAS EAST
OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND NEAR TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY STILL
SEE FAIR TO GOOD RATES WED AND THU...LOWERING A BIT FRI. RATES NO
BETTER AND GENERALLY LOWER ELSEWHERE.

A VERY SHARP INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS...MIXING HEIGHTS AND THUS
VENT RATES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE NOTICEABLY AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE.
WHILE NEAR SFC WINDS REACH CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS...MAINLY
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. AT THIS TIME STILL LOOKS LIKE MIN RH LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH NEWER
FCST MODEL RUNS AS SUNDAY MAY END UP WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN
1 AND 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 220151 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
751 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO LESSEN POPS ACROSS THE WEST...AND TWEAK THEM
ACROSS THE EAST TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS. NOW THAT WE HAVE LOSS
AFTERNOON HEATING...MUCH OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE WEST
HAS DIMINISHED. MOST AREAS WILL LIKELY SEE NO MORE THAN A FEW
SPRINKLES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THE HRRR EVEN SUGGESTS
THAT THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY MAY SEE SOME SPRINKLES AROUND
MIDNIGHT AS A WEAK TROUGH AXIS SWINGS ACROSS. MEANWHILE...THE
LARGER AREA OF SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE EAST HAS MOSTLY
DIMINISHED...BUT A BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS...AND THE OCCASIONAL
RUMBLE OF THUNDER...HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE HIGHLANDS. THE HRRR
SUGGESTS MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL DIMINISH BY MIDNIGHT...BUT MAY
PERSIST LONGER AS THE NOSE OF THE UPPER LEVEL JET POKES INTO THE
EAST. UPDATES ALREADY OUT.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...548 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTSM MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN NM SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NE AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. OTHERWISE...HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCD IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS AFT 06Z FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS NEW
MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND FORCE THE RECENT MOIST AND RELATIVELY
COOL PATTERN OUT OF THE AREA. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL BUT STILL ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY...USHERING IN
BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL
STORM SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDED TAPERING BACK SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ADDED
SOME FOG IN MORENO VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO THE PECOS VALLEY TMRW
NIGHT. ALSO RAISED TEMPS WELL ABOVE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE OVER THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO COME IN LINE BETTER WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPS FROM WEST TEXAS OFFICES.

THE 2030Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH AXIS
RACING EAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH A SHARP PUNCH OF DRY
AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE SURFACE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS LAGGING OVER CENTRAL NV AND NORTHWEST UT. THE ENTIRE UPPER TROUGH
FEATURE IS SHOWN BY MODELS TO ESSENTIALLY SHEAR APART AND LIFT WELL
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAVE NM IN GENERALLY WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. ALL IN
ALL THIS HAS TRENDED FASTER SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND LOWERED POP
VALUES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THE EAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SOCKED IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE 1ST PART OF
WEDNESDAY.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 591DM H5 HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
DESERT SW BY LATE THURSDAY...AND BRING SOME REALLY SPECTACULAR
WEATHER TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
VISIBLE WITHIN NM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE VERY NICE
VIEWING CONDITIONS. TRENDED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES THURSDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH
WARMER READINGS FROM THE WEST TX OFFICES. VERY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...MINIMAL SURFACE LEE TROUGHING OVER
THE PLAINS...AND LATE OCTOBER SUN WOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS
ABOVE RECORDS...BUT WILL GET ANOTHER CHANCE TO REVISIT LATER.

LEE TROUGHING WILL BE NOTABLE SATURDAY SO THAT COULD ACTUALLY BE THE
WARMEST DAY FOR THE EAST. TIMING ON THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN HAS BECOME
MORE DISJOINTED BETWEEN MODELS...SO CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY IS PROGGED TO BE THE BREEZIEST
FOR THE EAST WITH STRONGER LEE TROUGHING...WHILE THE WEST COOLS OFF.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE FLIP/FLOPPING ON A POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
FCST AREA...NOT AS MOIST ELSEWHERE BUT STILL MORE SO THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
REST OF AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE ACROSS SE AND E CENTRAL
SECTIONS. DRIER WED...THOUGH STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE SE PLAINS AND SACRAMENTO MTNS
VICINITY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND FURTHER DRYING TREND BEGINNING AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. UPPER LOW EARLIER
NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS SLOWLY OPENING UP INTO A WAVE AND SHOULD SLOWLY
EASE ACROSS S CENTRAL INTO SE NM BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MID MORN WED.
BROADER BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP USHER THAT SYSTEM
EAST OF THE STATE LATER WED...AIDING TRANSITION TO DRIER CONDITIONS
AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE COMING
INTO THE STATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. AS A RESULT MINIMUM HUMIDITY
WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THU
AND FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK. AREAS EAST
OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND NEAR TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY STILL
SEE FAIR TO GOOD RATES WED AND THU...LOWERING A BIT FRI. RATES NO
BETTER AND GENERALLY LOWER ELSEWHERE.

A VERY SHARP INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS...MIXING HEIGHTS AND THUS
VENT RATES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE NOTICEABLY AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE.
WHILE NEAR SFC WINDS REACH CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS...MAINLY
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. AT THIS TIME STILL LOOKS LIKE MIN RH LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH NEWER
FCST MODEL RUNS AS SUNDAY MAY END UP WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN
1 AND 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

34










000
FXUS65 KABQ 212348
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
AREA OF SHOWERS AND TSTSM MOST LIKELY ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER
TROUGH OVER ERN NM SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NE AND SLOWLY
DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN POSSIBLE WITH
THIS ACTIVITY. WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...ISOLD LIGHT SHOWERS
SHOULD ALSO DIMINISH AFTER 03Z. OTHERWISE...HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
OBSCD IN MVFR TO IFR CIGS AFT 06Z FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS PLENTIFUL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS NEW
MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND FORCE THE RECENT MOIST AND RELATIVELY
COOL PATTERN OUT OF THE AREA. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL BUT STILL ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY...USHERING IN
BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL
STORM SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDED TAPERING BACK SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ADDED
SOME FOG IN MORENO VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO THE PECOS VALLEY TMRW
NIGHT. ALSO RAISED TEMPS WELL ABOVE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE OVER THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO COME IN LINE BETTER WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPS FROM WEST TEXAS OFFICES.

THE 2030Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH AXIS
RACING EAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH A SHARP PUNCH OF DRY
AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE SURFACE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS LAGGING OVER CENTRAL NV AND NORTHWEST UT. THE ENTIRE UPPER TROUGH
FEATURE IS SHOWN BY MODELS TO ESSENTIALLY SHEAR APART AND LIFT WELL
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAVE NM IN GENERALLY WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. ALL IN
ALL THIS HAS TRENDED FASTER SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND LOWERED POP
VALUES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THE EAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SOCKED IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE 1ST PART OF
WEDNESDAY.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 591DM H5 HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
DESERT SW BY LATE THURSDAY...AND BRING SOME REALLY SPECTACULAR
WEATHER TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
VISIBLE WITHIN NM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE VERY NICE
VIEWING CONDITIONS. TRENDED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES THURSDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH
WARMER READINGS FROM THE WEST TX OFFICES. VERY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...MINIMAL SURFACE LEE TROUGHING OVER
THE PLAINS...AND LATE OCTOBER SUN WOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS
ABOVE RECORDS...BUT WILL GET ANOTHER CHANCE TO REVISIT LATER.

LEE TROUGHING WILL BE NOTABLE SATURDAY SO THAT COULD ACTUALLY BE THE
WARMEST DAY FOR THE EAST. TIMING ON THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN HAS BECOME
MORE DISJOINTED BETWEEN MODELS...SO CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY IS PROGGED TO BE THE BREEZIEST
FOR THE EAST WITH STRONGER LEE TROUGHING...WHILE THE WEST COOLS OFF.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE FLIP/FLOPPING ON A POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
FCST AREA...NOT AS MOIST ELSEWHERE BUT STILL MORE SO THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
REST OF AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE ACROSS SE AND E CENTRAL
SECTIONS. DRIER WED...THOUGH STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE SE PLAINS AND SACRAMENTO MTNS
VICINITY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND FURTHER DRYING TREND BEGINNING AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. UPPER LOW EARLIER
NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS SLOWLY OPENING UP INTO A WAVE AND SHOULD SLOWLY
EASE ACROSS S CENTRAL INTO SE NM BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MID MORN WED.
BROADER BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP USHER THAT SYSTEM
EAST OF THE STATE LATER WED...AIDING TRANSITION TO DRIER CONDITIONS
AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE COMING
INTO THE STATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. AS A RESULT MINIMUM HUMIDITY
WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THU
AND FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK. AREAS EAST
OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND NEAR TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY STILL
SEE FAIR TO GOOD RATES WED AND THU...LOWERING A BIT FRI. RATES NO
BETTER AND GENERALLY LOWER ELSEWHERE.

A VERY SHARP INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS...MIXING HEIGHTS AND THUS
VENT RATES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE NOTICEABLY AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE.
WHILE NEAR SFC WINDS REACH CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS...MAINLY
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. AT THIS TIME STILL LOOKS LIKE MIN RH LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH NEWER
FCST MODEL RUNS AS SUNDAY MAY END UP WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN
1 AND 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

43

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 212118
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
318 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL CROSS NEW
MEXICO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND FORCE THE RECENT MOIST AND RELATIVELY
COOL PATTERN OUT OF THE AREA. AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...BRINGING
WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...DRY CONDITIONS...AND LIGHT WINDS.
OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE COOL BUT STILL ABOVE LATE
OCTOBER NORMALS. THE RIDGE WILL BREAK DOWN BY SUNDAY...USHERING IN
BREEZY AND COOLER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE NEXT POTENTIAL
STORM SYSTEM WILL ATTEMPT TO SLIDE INTO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MAIN CHANGES TO FORECAST PACKAGE INCLUDED TAPERING BACK SHOWER AND
STORM CHANCES OVER CENTRAL/WESTERN NM TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. ADDED
SOME FOG IN MORENO VALLEY TONIGHT AND INTO THE PECOS VALLEY TMRW
NIGHT. ALSO RAISED TEMPS WELL ABOVE CONSENSUS GUIDANCE OVER THE
PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TO COME IN LINE BETTER WITH SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER TEMPS FROM WEST TEXAS OFFICES.

THE 2030Z WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER TROUGH AXIS
RACING EAST INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...WITH A SHARP PUNCH OF DRY
AIR IN ITS WAKE. THE SURFACE FRONT IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS SYSTEM
IS LAGGING OVER CENTRAL NV AND NORTHWEST UT. THE ENTIRE UPPER TROUGH
FEATURE IS SHOWN BY MODELS TO ESSENTIALLY SHEAR APART AND LIFT WELL
NORTH INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL
LEAVE NM IN GENERALLY WEAK QUASI-ZONAL FLOW THROUGH THURSDAY. ALL IN
ALL THIS HAS TRENDED FASTER SO HAVE FOLLOWED SUIT AND LOWERED POP
VALUES MOST AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. THE EAST WILL LIKELY
REMAIN SOCKED IN LOW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS THROUGH THE 1ST PART OF
WEDNESDAY.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 591DM H5 HIGH CENTER WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
DESERT SW BY LATE THURSDAY...AND BRING SOME REALLY SPECTACULAR
WEATHER TO OUR REGION THROUGH SATURDAY. A PARTIAL SOLAR ECLIPSE
VISIBLE WITHIN NM LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD HAVE VERY NICE
VIEWING CONDITIONS. TRENDED TEMPS UP A COUPLE DEGREES THURSDAY...AND
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS THE EAST TO ACCOUNT FOR MUCH
WARMER READINGS FROM THE WEST TX OFFICES. VERY LIGHT WINDS ALOFT...
SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S...MINIMAL SURFACE LEE TROUGHING OVER
THE PLAINS...AND LATE OCTOBER SUN WOULD LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS
ABOVE RECORDS...BUT WILL GET ANOTHER CHANCE TO REVISIT LATER.

LEE TROUGHING WILL BE NOTABLE SATURDAY SO THAT COULD ACTUALLY BE THE
WARMEST DAY FOR THE EAST. TIMING ON THE RIDGE BREAK DOWN HAS BECOME
MORE DISJOINTED BETWEEN MODELS...SO CONFIDENCE DECREASES ON THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY IS PROGGED TO BE THE BREEZIEST
FOR THE EAST WITH STRONGER LEE TROUGHING...WHILE THE WEST COOLS OFF.
BEYOND THE WEEKEND...MODELS ARE FLIP/FLOPPING ON A POTENTIAL WINTER
STORM SYSTEM BY MID WEEK.

GUYER

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY MOIST ACROSS SE AND S CENTRAL SECTIONS OF
FCST AREA...NOT AS MOIST ELSEWHERE BUT STILL MORE SO THAN NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
REST OF AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT SHOULD BE ACROSS SE AND E CENTRAL
SECTIONS. DRIER WED...THOUGH STILL SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS
A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MAINLY THE SE PLAINS AND SACRAMENTO MTNS
VICINITY. THEREAFTER A WARMING AND FURTHER DRYING TREND BEGINNING AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION. UPPER LOW EARLIER
NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS SLOWLY OPENING UP INTO A WAVE AND SHOULD SLOWLY
EASE ACROSS S CENTRAL INTO SE NM BETWEEN TONIGHT AND MID MORN WED.
BROADER BUT FAIRLY WEAK UPPER TROUGH WILL HELP USHER THAT SYSTEM
EAST OF THE STATE LATER WED...AIDING TRANSITION TO DRIER CONDITIONS
AND SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS. STRENGTHENING UPPER RIDGE COMING
INTO THE STATE WED NIGHT THROUGH FRI. AS A RESULT MINIMUM HUMIDITY
WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THU
AND FRI. THIS PATTERN WILL ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA LATE IN THE WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK. AREAS EAST
OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AND NEAR TO SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY STILL
SEE FAIR TO GOOD RATES WED AND THU...LOWERING A BIT FRI. RATES NO
BETTER AND GENERALLY LOWER ELSEWHERE.

A VERY SHARP INCREASE IN TRANSPORT WINDS...MIXING HEIGHTS AND THUS
VENT RATES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AS WINDS ALOFT
INCREASE NOTICEABLY AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH TAKES SHAPE.
WHILE NEAR SFC WINDS REACH CRITICAL LEVELS IN SOME SPOTS...MAINLY
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF WEST
CENTRAL NM. AT THIS TIME STILL LOOKS LIKE MIN RH LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE
CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT THIS WILL BE WATCHED CLOSELY WITH NEWER
FCST MODEL RUNS AS SUNDAY MAY END UP WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR BETWEEN
1 AND 3 HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS.

43

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TO THE EAST AS WELL AS THE SE PLAINS AS OF
MIDDAY SHOULD AT LEAST BECOME MORE LOCALIZED OR EVEN RISE TO VFR
LEVELS ALL AREAS AFTER 19Z OR 20Z. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH ISOLATED TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA WHERE MVFR AND VERY ISOLATED
BRIEF IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED. AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS WILL BE
MOST LIKELY AT ROW AND TO LESSER DEGREE LVS...TCC...AND SAF.
ACROSS WEST HALF OF NM VFR BY FAR WILL BE THE RULE WITH ISOLATED
MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED TO SCT SHRA AND -TSRA. MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AT ROW OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY
IMPACT TCC AS WELL. IN ADDITION TO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
TODAY...OTHER IMPACTS INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
SMALL HAIL.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  45  70  41  73 /  20   5   0   0
DULCE...........................  37  67  31  70 /  30  30   5   0
CUBA............................  40  68  37  70 /  30  20   5   0
GALLUP..........................  38  70  34  72 /  20   5   0   0
EL MORRO........................  36  66  32  68 /  30  10   0   0
GRANTS..........................  38  70  34  72 /  30  10   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  41  66  39  68 /  20  10   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  37  73  38  76 /  10   5   0   0
CHAMA...........................  32  65  28  67 /  40  30   5   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  46  65  45  67 /  30  20   5   0
PECOS...........................  42  64  41  66 /  30  20   5   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  37  66  33  68 /  30  20   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  29  56  25  59 /  40  20  10   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  29  62  25  64 /  40  20   5   0
TAOS............................  37  67  31  68 /  30  20   0   0
MORA............................  40  65  38  68 /  30  20   5   0
ESPANOLA........................  46  71  44  73 /  20  10   0   0
SANTA FE........................  44  64  43  67 /  30  20   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  44  70  42  71 /  20  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  51  69  48  72 /  20  20   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  50  72  49  74 /  20  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  49  74  43  75 /  20  10   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  50  74  48  76 /  20  10   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  43  73  41  75 /  20  10   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  49  74  47  76 /  20  10   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  47  74  47  76 /  20  10   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  45  69  44  71 /  30  20   5   0
TIJERAS.........................  47  70  45  72 /  30  20   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  38  70  35  72 /  30  30  10   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  41  67  42  69 /  30  30  10   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  45  67  45  69 /  30  20   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  44  69  43  72 /  30  20   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  40  66  43  69 /  40  20  10   0
CAPULIN.........................  45  67  42  69 /  20  20  10   0
RATON...........................  43  70  39  73 /  20  20   5   0
SPRINGER........................  43  71  38  73 /  20  20   5   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  40  68  39  71 /  30  20   5   0
CLAYTON.........................  49  72  49  74 /  10  20  10   0
ROY.............................  47  69  44  72 /  20  20  10   0
CONCHAS.........................  52  76  50  78 /  20  20   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  51  74  50  77 /  30  20   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  51  76  50  79 /  20  30  10   0
CLOVIS..........................  52  68  50  75 /  40  40  10   0
PORTALES........................  52  68  50  75 /  40  40  10   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  51  71  51  76 /  30  30  10   0
ROSWELL.........................  52  70  49  76 /  40  30  10   0
PICACHO.........................  46  67  46  72 /  40  30  10   0
ELK.............................  45  62  45  67 /  40  40  10   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 211802
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1202 PM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE EAST SLOPES OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND
ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TO THE EAST AS WELL AS THE SE PLAINS AS OF
MIDDAY SHOULD AT LEAST BECOME MORE LOCALIZED OR EVEN RISE TO VFR
LEVELS ALL AREAS AFTER 19Z OR 20Z. EXCEPTIONS WILL BE ASSOCIATED
WITH ISOLATED TO SCT SHRA AND TSRA WHERE MVFR AND VERY ISOLATED
BRIEF IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED. AFOREMENTIONED CONDITIONS WILL BE
MOST LIKELY AT ROW AND TO LESSER DEGREE LVS...TCC...AND SAF.
ACROSS WEST HALF OF NM VFR BY FAR WILL BE THE RULE WITH ISOLATED
MVFR CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH ISOLATED TO SCT SHRA AND -TSRA. MVFR
CIGS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP AT ROW OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY
IMPACT TCC AS WELL. IN ADDITION TO MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
TODAY...OTHER IMPACTS INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF
SMALL HAIL.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND
AREA-WIDE THURSDAY. THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. IR AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT THE LOW IS WEAKENING AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE. STILL PLENTY OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL LIKELY COMBINE
WITH STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES...COLD (-13C) 500MB TEMPERATURES
TO GENERATE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH
CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SUBSIDENCE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES WEST OF
THE MIDDLE RGV WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY AS
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS UP FROM SRN AZ. GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER HIGH CENTER/AXIS
TRANSLATES THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
LEE SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING SW WINDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE ADD ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH
JUST A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. INTERESTINGLY...ECMWF STICKS TO
ITS GUNS WITH A MUCH MORE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH LIFTS
RAPIDLY NEWD WHILE THE SLOWER NORTHERN PORTION DIGS SWD THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
RESULT IN QUITE THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. GFS SCENARIO WOULD EQUATE TO A HO-HUM MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE
WETTING RAIN EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A WARMING/DRYING
TREND BEGINNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INLAND NORTHWEST. HIGH HUMIDITY AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DECENT
WETTING POTENTIAL. THE WARMING/DRYING KICKS-IN WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN SHIFTING EAST A BIT. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING EAST OVER NEW MEXICO
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
590-592DAM 500MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE
STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK.

LOOK FOR IMPROVING VENT RATES AND INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES
AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY. OUR WIND FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL BE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...WHICH
REPRESENTS AN INCREASE OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT WORTH WATCHING
TRENDS CLOSELY FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 211142
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL
IMPACT KROW THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY KTCC. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT AREA TERMINALS TO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP AT KROW
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT KTCC AS WELL. IN ADDITION TO
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TODAY...OTHER IMPACTS INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL...ALTHOUGH LIKELY SMALL.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND
AREA-WIDE THURSDAY. THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. IR AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT THE LOW IS WEAKENING AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE. STILL PLENTY OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL LIKELY COMBINE
WITH STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES...COLD (-13C) 500MB TEMPERATURES
TO GENERATE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH
CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SUBSIDENCE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES WEST OF
THE MIDDLE RGV WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY AS
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS UP FROM SRN AZ. GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER HIGH CENTER/AXIS
TRANSLATES THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
LEE SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING SW WINDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE ADD ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH
JUST A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. INTERESTINGLY...ECMWF STICKS TO
ITS GUNS WITH A MUCH MORE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH LIFTS
RAPIDLY NEWD WHILE THE SLOWER NORTHERN PORTION DIGS SWD THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
RESULT IN QUITE THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. GFS SCENARIO WOULD EQUATE TO A HO-HUM MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE
WETTING RAIN EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A WARMING/DRYING
TREND BEGINNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INLAND NORTHWEST. HIGH HUMIDITY AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DECENT
WETTING POTENTIAL. THE WARMING/DRYING KICKS-IN WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN SHIFTING EAST A BIT. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING EAST OVER NEW MEXICO
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
590-592DAM 500MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE
STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK.

LOOK FOR IMPROVING VENT RATES AND INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES
AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY. OUR WIND FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL BE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...WHICH
REPRESENTS AN INCREASE OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT WORTH WATCHING
TRENDS CLOSELY FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33







000
FXUS65 KABQ 211142 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL
IMPACT KROW THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY KTCC. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT AREA TERMINALS TO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP AT KROW
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT KTCC AS WELL. IN ADDITION TO
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TODAY...OTHER IMPACTS INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL...ALTHOUGH LIKELY SMALL.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND
AREA-WIDE THURSDAY. THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. IR AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT THE LOW IS WEAKENING AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE. STILL PLENTY OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL LIKELY COMBINE
WITH STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES...COLD (-13C) 500MB TEMPERATURES
TO GENERATE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH
CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SUBSIDENCE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES WEST OF
THE MIDDLE RGV WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY AS
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS UP FROM SRN AZ. GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER HIGH CENTER/AXIS
TRANSLATES THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
LEE SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING SW WINDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE ADD ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH
JUST A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. INTERESTINGLY...ECMWF STICKS TO
ITS GUNS WITH A MUCH MORE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH LIFTS
RAPIDLY NEWD WHILE THE SLOWER NORTHERN PORTION DIGS SWD THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
RESULT IN QUITE THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. GFS SCENARIO WOULD EQUATE TO A HO-HUM MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE
WETTING RAIN EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A WARMING/DRYING
TREND BEGINNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INLAND NORTHWEST. HIGH HUMIDITY AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DECENT
WETTING POTENTIAL. THE WARMING/DRYING KICKS-IN WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN SHIFTING EAST A BIT. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING EAST OVER NEW MEXICO
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
590-592DAM 500MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE
STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK.

LOOK FOR IMPROVING VENT RATES AND INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES
AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY. OUR WIND FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL BE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...WHICH
REPRESENTS AN INCREASE OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT WORTH WATCHING
TRENDS CLOSELY FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33






000
FXUS65 KABQ 211142 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL
IMPACT KROW THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY KTCC. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT AREA TERMINALS TO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP AT KROW
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT KTCC AS WELL. IN ADDITION TO
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TODAY...OTHER IMPACTS INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL...ALTHOUGH LIKELY SMALL.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND
AREA-WIDE THURSDAY. THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. IR AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT THE LOW IS WEAKENING AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE. STILL PLENTY OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL LIKELY COMBINE
WITH STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES...COLD (-13C) 500MB TEMPERATURES
TO GENERATE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH
CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SUBSIDENCE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES WEST OF
THE MIDDLE RGV WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY AS
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS UP FROM SRN AZ. GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER HIGH CENTER/AXIS
TRANSLATES THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
LEE SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING SW WINDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE ADD ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH
JUST A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. INTERESTINGLY...ECMWF STICKS TO
ITS GUNS WITH A MUCH MORE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH LIFTS
RAPIDLY NEWD WHILE THE SLOWER NORTHERN PORTION DIGS SWD THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
RESULT IN QUITE THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. GFS SCENARIO WOULD EQUATE TO A HO-HUM MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE
WETTING RAIN EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A WARMING/DRYING
TREND BEGINNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INLAND NORTHWEST. HIGH HUMIDITY AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DECENT
WETTING POTENTIAL. THE WARMING/DRYING KICKS-IN WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN SHIFTING EAST A BIT. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING EAST OVER NEW MEXICO
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
590-592DAM 500MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE
STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK.

LOOK FOR IMPROVING VENT RATES AND INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES
AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY. OUR WIND FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL BE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...WHICH
REPRESENTS AN INCREASE OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT WORTH WATCHING
TRENDS CLOSELY FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33






000
FXUS65 KABQ 211142 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL
IMPACT KROW THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY KTCC. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT AREA TERMINALS TO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP AT KROW
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT KTCC AS WELL. IN ADDITION TO
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TODAY...OTHER IMPACTS INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL...ALTHOUGH LIKELY SMALL.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND
AREA-WIDE THURSDAY. THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. IR AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT THE LOW IS WEAKENING AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE. STILL PLENTY OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL LIKELY COMBINE
WITH STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES...COLD (-13C) 500MB TEMPERATURES
TO GENERATE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH
CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SUBSIDENCE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES WEST OF
THE MIDDLE RGV WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY AS
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS UP FROM SRN AZ. GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER HIGH CENTER/AXIS
TRANSLATES THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
LEE SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING SW WINDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE ADD ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH
JUST A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. INTERESTINGLY...ECMWF STICKS TO
ITS GUNS WITH A MUCH MORE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH LIFTS
RAPIDLY NEWD WHILE THE SLOWER NORTHERN PORTION DIGS SWD THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
RESULT IN QUITE THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. GFS SCENARIO WOULD EQUATE TO A HO-HUM MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE
WETTING RAIN EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A WARMING/DRYING
TREND BEGINNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INLAND NORTHWEST. HIGH HUMIDITY AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DECENT
WETTING POTENTIAL. THE WARMING/DRYING KICKS-IN WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN SHIFTING EAST A BIT. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING EAST OVER NEW MEXICO
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
590-592DAM 500MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE
STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK.

LOOK FOR IMPROVING VENT RATES AND INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES
AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY. OUR WIND FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL BE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...WHICH
REPRESENTS AN INCREASE OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT WORTH WATCHING
TRENDS CLOSELY FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33






000
FXUS65 KABQ 211142 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL
IMPACT KROW THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY KTCC. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT AREA TERMINALS TO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP AT KROW
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT KTCC AS WELL. IN ADDITION TO
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TODAY...OTHER IMPACTS INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL...ALTHOUGH LIKELY SMALL.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND
AREA-WIDE THURSDAY. THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. IR AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT THE LOW IS WEAKENING AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE. STILL PLENTY OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL LIKELY COMBINE
WITH STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES...COLD (-13C) 500MB TEMPERATURES
TO GENERATE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH
CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SUBSIDENCE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES WEST OF
THE MIDDLE RGV WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY AS
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS UP FROM SRN AZ. GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER HIGH CENTER/AXIS
TRANSLATES THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
LEE SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING SW WINDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE ADD ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH
JUST A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. INTERESTINGLY...ECMWF STICKS TO
ITS GUNS WITH A MUCH MORE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH LIFTS
RAPIDLY NEWD WHILE THE SLOWER NORTHERN PORTION DIGS SWD THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
RESULT IN QUITE THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. GFS SCENARIO WOULD EQUATE TO A HO-HUM MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE
WETTING RAIN EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A WARMING/DRYING
TREND BEGINNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INLAND NORTHWEST. HIGH HUMIDITY AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DECENT
WETTING POTENTIAL. THE WARMING/DRYING KICKS-IN WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN SHIFTING EAST A BIT. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING EAST OVER NEW MEXICO
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
590-592DAM 500MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE
STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK.

LOOK FOR IMPROVING VENT RATES AND INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES
AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY. OUR WIND FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL BE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...WHICH
REPRESENTS AN INCREASE OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT WORTH WATCHING
TRENDS CLOSELY FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33






000
FXUS65 KABQ 211142
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL
IMPACT KROW THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY KTCC. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT AREA TERMINALS TO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP AT KROW
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT KTCC AS WELL. IN ADDITION TO
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TODAY...OTHER IMPACTS INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL...ALTHOUGH LIKELY SMALL.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND
AREA-WIDE THURSDAY. THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. IR AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT THE LOW IS WEAKENING AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE. STILL PLENTY OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL LIKELY COMBINE
WITH STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES...COLD (-13C) 500MB TEMPERATURES
TO GENERATE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH
CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SUBSIDENCE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES WEST OF
THE MIDDLE RGV WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY AS
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS UP FROM SRN AZ. GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER HIGH CENTER/AXIS
TRANSLATES THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
LEE SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING SW WINDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE ADD ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH
JUST A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. INTERESTINGLY...ECMWF STICKS TO
ITS GUNS WITH A MUCH MORE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH LIFTS
RAPIDLY NEWD WHILE THE SLOWER NORTHERN PORTION DIGS SWD THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
RESULT IN QUITE THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. GFS SCENARIO WOULD EQUATE TO A HO-HUM MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE
WETTING RAIN EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A WARMING/DRYING
TREND BEGINNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INLAND NORTHWEST. HIGH HUMIDITY AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DECENT
WETTING POTENTIAL. THE WARMING/DRYING KICKS-IN WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN SHIFTING EAST A BIT. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING EAST OVER NEW MEXICO
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
590-592DAM 500MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE
STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK.

LOOK FOR IMPROVING VENT RATES AND INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES
AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY. OUR WIND FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL BE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...WHICH
REPRESENTS AN INCREASE OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT WORTH WATCHING
TRENDS CLOSELY FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33







000
FXUS65 KABQ 211142 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL
IMPACT KROW THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY KTCC. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT AREA TERMINALS TO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP AT KROW
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT KTCC AS WELL. IN ADDITION TO
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TODAY...OTHER IMPACTS INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL...ALTHOUGH LIKELY SMALL.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND
AREA-WIDE THURSDAY. THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. IR AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT THE LOW IS WEAKENING AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE. STILL PLENTY OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL LIKELY COMBINE
WITH STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES...COLD (-13C) 500MB TEMPERATURES
TO GENERATE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH
CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SUBSIDENCE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES WEST OF
THE MIDDLE RGV WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY AS
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS UP FROM SRN AZ. GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER HIGH CENTER/AXIS
TRANSLATES THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
LEE SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING SW WINDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE ADD ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH
JUST A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. INTERESTINGLY...ECMWF STICKS TO
ITS GUNS WITH A MUCH MORE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH LIFTS
RAPIDLY NEWD WHILE THE SLOWER NORTHERN PORTION DIGS SWD THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
RESULT IN QUITE THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. GFS SCENARIO WOULD EQUATE TO A HO-HUM MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE
WETTING RAIN EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A WARMING/DRYING
TREND BEGINNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INLAND NORTHWEST. HIGH HUMIDITY AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DECENT
WETTING POTENTIAL. THE WARMING/DRYING KICKS-IN WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN SHIFTING EAST A BIT. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING EAST OVER NEW MEXICO
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
590-592DAM 500MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE
STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK.

LOOK FOR IMPROVING VENT RATES AND INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES
AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY. OUR WIND FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL BE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...WHICH
REPRESENTS AN INCREASE OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT WORTH WATCHING
TRENDS CLOSELY FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33





000
FXUS65 KABQ 211142 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY MVFR CIGS ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OF NEW MEXICO WILL
IMPACT KROW THIS MORNING...AND POSSIBLY KTCC. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS FORECAST TODAY WITH LIGHT WINDS OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AT AREA TERMINALS TO BE ACCOMPANIED
BY SHORT-LIVED MVFR CONDITIONS. MVFR CIGS WILL REDEVELOP AT KROW
OVERNIGHT AND POTENTIALLY IMPACT KTCC AS WELL. IN ADDITION TO
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS TODAY...OTHER IMPACTS INCLUDE POTENTIAL FOR
HAIL...ALTHOUGH LIKELY SMALL.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND
AREA-WIDE THURSDAY. THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. IR AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT THE LOW IS WEAKENING AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE. STILL PLENTY OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL LIKELY COMBINE
WITH STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES...COLD (-13C) 500MB TEMPERATURES
TO GENERATE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH
CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SUBSIDENCE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES WEST OF
THE MIDDLE RGV WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY AS
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS UP FROM SRN AZ. GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER HIGH CENTER/AXIS
TRANSLATES THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
LEE SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING SW WINDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE ADD ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH
JUST A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. INTERESTINGLY...ECMWF STICKS TO
ITS GUNS WITH A MUCH MORE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH LIFTS
RAPIDLY NEWD WHILE THE SLOWER NORTHERN PORTION DIGS SWD THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
RESULT IN QUITE THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. GFS SCENARIO WOULD EQUATE TO A HO-HUM MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE
WETTING RAIN EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A WARMING/DRYING
TREND BEGINNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INLAND NORTHWEST. HIGH HUMIDITY AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DECENT
WETTING POTENTIAL. THE WARMING/DRYING KICKS-IN WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN SHIFTING EAST A BIT. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING EAST OVER NEW MEXICO
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
590-592DAM 500MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE
STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK.

LOOK FOR IMPROVING VENT RATES AND INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES
AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY. OUR WIND FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL BE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...WHICH
REPRESENTS AN INCREASE OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT WORTH WATCHING
TRENDS CLOSELY FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33






000
FXUS65 KABQ 210912
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
312 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND
AREA-WIDE THURSDAY. THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. IR AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT THE LOW IS WEAKENING AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE. STILL PLENTY OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL LIKELY COMBINE
WITH STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES...COLD (-13C) 500MB TEMPERATURES
TO GENERATE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH
CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SUBSIDENCE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES WEST OF
THE MIDDLE RGV WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY AS
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS UP FROM SRN AZ. GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER HIGH CENTER/AXIS
TRANSLATES THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
LEE SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING SW WINDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE ADD ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH
JUST A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. INTERESTINGLY...ECMWF STICKS TO
ITS GUNS WITH A MUCH MORE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH LIFTS
RAPIDLY NEWD WHILE THE SLOWER NORTHERN PORTION DIGS SWD THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
RESULT IN QUITE THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. GFS SCENARIO WOULD EQUATE TO A HO-HUM MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE
WETTING RAIN EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A WARMING/DRYING
TREND BEGINNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INLAND NORTHWEST. HIGH HUMIDITY AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DECENT
WETTING POTENTIAL. THE WARMING/DRYING KICKS-IN WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN SHIFTING EAST A BIT. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING EAST OVER NEW MEXICO
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
590-592DAM 500MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE
STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK.

LOOK FOR IMPROVING VENT RATES AND INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES
AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY. OUR WIND FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL BE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...WHICH
REPRESENTS AN INCREASE OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT WORTH WATCHING
TRENDS CLOSELY FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG ITSELF NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO BY 21/12Z THEN WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH WHILE IT MOVES NORTHEAST
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE THROUGH 22/00Z. LINGERING SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH OCCASIONAL
MT OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THROUGH 21/09Z. LEE SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AFT 21/12Z. RESULTING SFC GRADIENT MAY DRAW
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BY 21/09Z AND
OBSCURE HIGHER TERRAIN UNTIL AROUND 21/16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  69  44  70  41 /  20  20   5   0
DULCE...........................  63  36  67  31 /  40  50  20   0
CUBA............................  63  40  67  36 /  30  40  30   0
GALLUP..........................  67  37  69  34 /  30  30   5   0
EL MORRO........................  62  35  65  33 /  40  40  10   0
GRANTS..........................  66  39  69  34 /  30  30  10   0
QUEMADO.........................  62  40  65  38 /  40  30  10   0
GLENWOOD........................  70  39  73  41 /  20  20  10   0
CHAMA...........................  60  32  64  28 /  40  50  30   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  61  44  64  43 /  30  40  30   5
PECOS...........................  58  41  63  40 /  40  40  20   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  63  36  66  31 /  30  30  20   5
RED RIVER.......................  53  38  56  36 /  50  40  30  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  59  31  61  27 /  40  40  30  10
TAOS............................  63  37  66  32 /  30  30  10   5
MORA............................  60  39  65  38 /  40  40  20  10
ESPANOLA........................  67  45  71  43 /  20  30  10   5
SANTA FE........................  61  43  66  42 /  30  40  20   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  65  44  69  42 /  30  30  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  66  48  69  45 /  30  30  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  68  50  71  49 /  20  30  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  70  46  73  45 /  20  30  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  69  50  72  48 /  20  30  10   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  69  46  73  44 /  20  30  10   0
RIO RANCHO......................  69  49  72  48 /  20  30  10   0
SOCORRO.........................  70  47  74  47 /  30  30  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  62  40  67  39 /  30  40  20   5
TIJERAS.........................  63  39  68  38 /  30  40  20   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  66  37  70  34 /  40  40  30   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  63  41  67  42 /  40  40  30   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  63  44  66  44 /  30  30  30   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  66  45  69  44 /  30  30  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  62  41  66  45 /  50  30  30  10
CAPULIN.........................  66  44  67  41 /  30  20  20  10
RATON...........................  69  42  70  38 /  20  20  20  10
SPRINGER........................  68  43  70  38 /  20  20  20  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  63  40  68  40 /  40  30  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  72  49  72  49 /  10  10  20  10
ROY.............................  66  47  69  44 /  20  20  20  10
CONCHAS.........................  72  51  76  49 /  20  20  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  69  50  73  50 /  20  30  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  75  51  75  49 /  20  20  20  10
CLOVIS..........................  70  51  69  50 /  20  30  30  10
PORTALES........................  70  52  69  49 /  20  30  30  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  68  51  71  50 /  20  30  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  69  52  71  50 /  40  30  30  10
PICACHO.........................  63  47  67  47 /  40  30  30  10
ELK.............................  59  46  63  46 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33















000
FXUS65 KABQ 210912
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
312 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND
AREA-WIDE THURSDAY. THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. IR AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT THE LOW IS WEAKENING AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE. STILL PLENTY OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL LIKELY COMBINE
WITH STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES...COLD (-13C) 500MB TEMPERATURES
TO GENERATE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH
CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SUBSIDENCE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES WEST OF
THE MIDDLE RGV WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY AS
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS UP FROM SRN AZ. GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER HIGH CENTER/AXIS
TRANSLATES THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
LEE SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING SW WINDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE ADD ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH
JUST A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. INTERESTINGLY...ECMWF STICKS TO
ITS GUNS WITH A MUCH MORE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH LIFTS
RAPIDLY NEWD WHILE THE SLOWER NORTHERN PORTION DIGS SWD THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
RESULT IN QUITE THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. GFS SCENARIO WOULD EQUATE TO A HO-HUM MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE
WETTING RAIN EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A WARMING/DRYING
TREND BEGINNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INLAND NORTHWEST. HIGH HUMIDITY AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DECENT
WETTING POTENTIAL. THE WARMING/DRYING KICKS-IN WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN SHIFTING EAST A BIT. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING EAST OVER NEW MEXICO
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
590-592DAM 500MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE
STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK.

LOOK FOR IMPROVING VENT RATES AND INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES
AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY. OUR WIND FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL BE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...WHICH
REPRESENTS AN INCREASE OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT WORTH WATCHING
TRENDS CLOSELY FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG ITSELF NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO BY 21/12Z THEN WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH WHILE IT MOVES NORTHEAST
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE THROUGH 22/00Z. LINGERING SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH OCCASIONAL
MT OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THROUGH 21/09Z. LEE SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AFT 21/12Z. RESULTING SFC GRADIENT MAY DRAW
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BY 21/09Z AND
OBSCURE HIGHER TERRAIN UNTIL AROUND 21/16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  69  44  70  41 /  20  20   5   0
DULCE...........................  63  36  67  31 /  40  50  20   0
CUBA............................  63  40  67  36 /  30  40  30   0
GALLUP..........................  67  37  69  34 /  30  30   5   0
EL MORRO........................  62  35  65  33 /  40  40  10   0
GRANTS..........................  66  39  69  34 /  30  30  10   0
QUEMADO.........................  62  40  65  38 /  40  30  10   0
GLENWOOD........................  70  39  73  41 /  20  20  10   0
CHAMA...........................  60  32  64  28 /  40  50  30   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  61  44  64  43 /  30  40  30   5
PECOS...........................  58  41  63  40 /  40  40  20   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  63  36  66  31 /  30  30  20   5
RED RIVER.......................  53  38  56  36 /  50  40  30  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  59  31  61  27 /  40  40  30  10
TAOS............................  63  37  66  32 /  30  30  10   5
MORA............................  60  39  65  38 /  40  40  20  10
ESPANOLA........................  67  45  71  43 /  20  30  10   5
SANTA FE........................  61  43  66  42 /  30  40  20   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  65  44  69  42 /  30  30  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  66  48  69  45 /  30  30  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  68  50  71  49 /  20  30  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  70  46  73  45 /  20  30  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  69  50  72  48 /  20  30  10   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  69  46  73  44 /  20  30  10   0
RIO RANCHO......................  69  49  72  48 /  20  30  10   0
SOCORRO.........................  70  47  74  47 /  30  30  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  62  40  67  39 /  30  40  20   5
TIJERAS.........................  63  39  68  38 /  30  40  20   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  66  37  70  34 /  40  40  30   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  63  41  67  42 /  40  40  30   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  63  44  66  44 /  30  30  30   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  66  45  69  44 /  30  30  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  62  41  66  45 /  50  30  30  10
CAPULIN.........................  66  44  67  41 /  30  20  20  10
RATON...........................  69  42  70  38 /  20  20  20  10
SPRINGER........................  68  43  70  38 /  20  20  20  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  63  40  68  40 /  40  30  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  72  49  72  49 /  10  10  20  10
ROY.............................  66  47  69  44 /  20  20  20  10
CONCHAS.........................  72  51  76  49 /  20  20  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  69  50  73  50 /  20  30  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  75  51  75  49 /  20  20  20  10
CLOVIS..........................  70  51  69  50 /  20  30  30  10
PORTALES........................  70  52  69  49 /  20  30  30  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  68  51  71  50 /  20  30  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  69  52  71  50 /  40  30  30  10
PICACHO.........................  63  47  67  47 /  40  30  30  10
ELK.............................  59  46  63  46 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33















000
FXUS65 KABQ 210912
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
312 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND
AREA-WIDE THURSDAY. THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. IR AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT THE LOW IS WEAKENING AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE. STILL PLENTY OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL LIKELY COMBINE
WITH STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES...COLD (-13C) 500MB TEMPERATURES
TO GENERATE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH
CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SUBSIDENCE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES WEST OF
THE MIDDLE RGV WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY AS
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS UP FROM SRN AZ. GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER HIGH CENTER/AXIS
TRANSLATES THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
LEE SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING SW WINDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE ADD ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH
JUST A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. INTERESTINGLY...ECMWF STICKS TO
ITS GUNS WITH A MUCH MORE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH LIFTS
RAPIDLY NEWD WHILE THE SLOWER NORTHERN PORTION DIGS SWD THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
RESULT IN QUITE THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. GFS SCENARIO WOULD EQUATE TO A HO-HUM MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE
WETTING RAIN EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A WARMING/DRYING
TREND BEGINNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INLAND NORTHWEST. HIGH HUMIDITY AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DECENT
WETTING POTENTIAL. THE WARMING/DRYING KICKS-IN WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN SHIFTING EAST A BIT. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING EAST OVER NEW MEXICO
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
590-592DAM 500MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE
STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK.

LOOK FOR IMPROVING VENT RATES AND INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES
AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY. OUR WIND FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL BE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...WHICH
REPRESENTS AN INCREASE OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT WORTH WATCHING
TRENDS CLOSELY FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG ITSELF NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO BY 21/12Z THEN WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH WHILE IT MOVES NORTHEAST
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE THROUGH 22/00Z. LINGERING SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH OCCASIONAL
MT OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THROUGH 21/09Z. LEE SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AFT 21/12Z. RESULTING SFC GRADIENT MAY DRAW
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BY 21/09Z AND
OBSCURE HIGHER TERRAIN UNTIL AROUND 21/16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  69  44  70  41 /  20  20   5   0
DULCE...........................  63  36  67  31 /  40  50  20   0
CUBA............................  63  40  67  36 /  30  40  30   0
GALLUP..........................  67  37  69  34 /  30  30   5   0
EL MORRO........................  62  35  65  33 /  40  40  10   0
GRANTS..........................  66  39  69  34 /  30  30  10   0
QUEMADO.........................  62  40  65  38 /  40  30  10   0
GLENWOOD........................  70  39  73  41 /  20  20  10   0
CHAMA...........................  60  32  64  28 /  40  50  30   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  61  44  64  43 /  30  40  30   5
PECOS...........................  58  41  63  40 /  40  40  20   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  63  36  66  31 /  30  30  20   5
RED RIVER.......................  53  38  56  36 /  50  40  30  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  59  31  61  27 /  40  40  30  10
TAOS............................  63  37  66  32 /  30  30  10   5
MORA............................  60  39  65  38 /  40  40  20  10
ESPANOLA........................  67  45  71  43 /  20  30  10   5
SANTA FE........................  61  43  66  42 /  30  40  20   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  65  44  69  42 /  30  30  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  66  48  69  45 /  30  30  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  68  50  71  49 /  20  30  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  70  46  73  45 /  20  30  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  69  50  72  48 /  20  30  10   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  69  46  73  44 /  20  30  10   0
RIO RANCHO......................  69  49  72  48 /  20  30  10   0
SOCORRO.........................  70  47  74  47 /  30  30  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  62  40  67  39 /  30  40  20   5
TIJERAS.........................  63  39  68  38 /  30  40  20   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  66  37  70  34 /  40  40  30   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  63  41  67  42 /  40  40  30   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  63  44  66  44 /  30  30  30   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  66  45  69  44 /  30  30  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  62  41  66  45 /  50  30  30  10
CAPULIN.........................  66  44  67  41 /  30  20  20  10
RATON...........................  69  42  70  38 /  20  20  20  10
SPRINGER........................  68  43  70  38 /  20  20  20  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  63  40  68  40 /  40  30  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  72  49  72  49 /  10  10  20  10
ROY.............................  66  47  69  44 /  20  20  20  10
CONCHAS.........................  72  51  76  49 /  20  20  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  69  50  73  50 /  20  30  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  75  51  75  49 /  20  20  20  10
CLOVIS..........................  70  51  69  50 /  20  30  30  10
PORTALES........................  70  52  69  49 /  20  30  30  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  68  51  71  50 /  20  30  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  69  52  71  50 /  40  30  30  10
PICACHO.........................  63  47  67  47 /  40  30  30  10
ELK.............................  59  46  63  46 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33















000
FXUS65 KABQ 210912
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
312 AM MDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED NEAR EL PASO THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE THE NECESSARY INGREDIENTS TO GENERATE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AS THE LOW WEAKENS AND LIFTS
NORTHEASTWARD WEDNESDAY...STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN
TO LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY AND
AREA-WIDE THURSDAY. THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WEAK UPPER LOW CONTINUING TO GENERATE A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL CHAVES COUNTY
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY. IR AND WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATING THAT THE LOW IS WEAKENING AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE. STILL PLENTY OF DIFLUENCE ALOFT AND LOW AND MID LEVEL
MOISTURE TO GENERATE ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. INCREASING SW WINDS ALOFT
ASSOCIATED WITH THE SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM WILL LIKELY COMBINE
WITH STEEP 700-500MB LAPSE RATES...COLD (-13C) 500MB TEMPERATURES
TO GENERATE ISOLATED STRONG STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE
PRIMARY THREAT.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE TROUGH AXIS WILL SLIDE THROUGH
CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING AND POINTS EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON.
EVEN WITH PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO WORK WITH...SUBSIDENCE
ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE TROUGH WILL LIMIT SHOWER CHANCES WEST OF
THE MIDDLE RGV WEDNESDAY. SUBSIDENCE WILL INCREASE FURTHER THURSDAY AS
AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH BUILDS UP FROM SRN AZ. GFS
AND ECMWF REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT UPPER HIGH CENTER/AXIS
TRANSLATES THROUGH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AROUND MIDDAY FRIDAY.
INCREASING SW FLOW ALOFT FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL RESULT IN
LEE SFC TROUGH AND INCREASING SW WINDS EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS CONTINUE ADD ODDS WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR SUNDAY
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. GFS REMAINS THE MUCH MORE PROGRESSIVE MODEL WITH
JUST A GLANCING BLOW FROM AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC TROUGH AND
THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT. INTERESTINGLY...ECMWF STICKS TO
ITS GUNS WITH A MUCH MORE SPLIT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING ONTO THE
WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THIS TROUGH LIFTS
RAPIDLY NEWD WHILE THE SLOWER NORTHERN PORTION DIGS SWD THROUGH
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND TOWARD NEW MEXICO. THIS SCENARIO WOULD
RESULT IN QUITE THE EASTERLY UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT FOR NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. GFS SCENARIO WOULD EQUATE TO A HO-HUM MAINLY
DRY COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES ACROSS THE AREA WITH MORE
WETTING RAIN EXPECTED TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A WARMING/DRYING
TREND BEGINNING AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE REGION.

THE UPPER LOW NEAR THE BOOTHEEL IS FORECAST TO OPEN UP AND DRIFT
NORTHEAST TODAY THANKS TO THE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVING EAST ACROSS
THE GREAT BASIN AND INLAND NORTHWEST. HIGH HUMIDITY AND ANOTHER
ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TODAY WITH DECENT
WETTING POTENTIAL. THE WARMING/DRYING KICKS-IN WEDNESDAY WITH THE
FOCUS FOR WETTING RAIN SHIFTING EAST A BIT. HIGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE
ON A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SHIFTING EAST OVER NEW MEXICO
ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. MINIMUM HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWN AS HIGH
TEMPERATURES TREND UP TO ABOVE NORMAL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH A
590-592DAM 500MB HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO. THIS PATTERN WILL
ALSO CREATE POOR VENTILATION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN VALLEYS WHERE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE
STUBBORN OR SLOW TO BREAK.

LOOK FOR IMPROVING VENT RATES AND INCREASING WINDS OVER THE WEEKEND
AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EAST AND IS REPLACED WITH MODERATE WESTERLIES
AND A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH. THE 00Z ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH THAN
THE GFS WITH AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES LATE SUNDAY. OUR WIND FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
WILL BE A BLEND OF THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS FOR NOW...WHICH
REPRESENTS AN INCREASE OVER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST CYCLE. MINIMUM
HUMIDITY LOOKS TO STAY ABOVE CRITICAL THRESHOLD...BUT WORTH WATCHING
TRENDS CLOSELY FOR SUNDAY WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR AN HOUR OR TWO OF
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUARTER.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG ITSELF NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO BY 21/12Z THEN WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH WHILE IT MOVES NORTHEAST
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE THROUGH 22/00Z. LINGERING SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH OCCASIONAL
MT OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THROUGH 21/09Z. LEE SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AFT 21/12Z. RESULTING SFC GRADIENT MAY DRAW
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BY 21/09Z AND
OBSCURE HIGHER TERRAIN UNTIL AROUND 21/16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  69  44  70  41 /  20  20   5   0
DULCE...........................  63  36  67  31 /  40  50  20   0
CUBA............................  63  40  67  36 /  30  40  30   0
GALLUP..........................  67  37  69  34 /  30  30   5   0
EL MORRO........................  62  35  65  33 /  40  40  10   0
GRANTS..........................  66  39  69  34 /  30  30  10   0
QUEMADO.........................  62  40  65  38 /  40  30  10   0
GLENWOOD........................  70  39  73  41 /  20  20  10   0
CHAMA...........................  60  32  64  28 /  40  50  30   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  61  44  64  43 /  30  40  30   5
PECOS...........................  58  41  63  40 /  40  40  20   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  63  36  66  31 /  30  30  20   5
RED RIVER.......................  53  38  56  36 /  50  40  30  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  59  31  61  27 /  40  40  30  10
TAOS............................  63  37  66  32 /  30  30  10   5
MORA............................  60  39  65  38 /  40  40  20  10
ESPANOLA........................  67  45  71  43 /  20  30  10   5
SANTA FE........................  61  43  66  42 /  30  40  20   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  65  44  69  42 /  30  30  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  66  48  69  45 /  30  30  20   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  68  50  71  49 /  20  30  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  70  46  73  45 /  20  30  10   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  69  50  72  48 /  20  30  10   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  69  46  73  44 /  20  30  10   0
RIO RANCHO......................  69  49  72  48 /  20  30  10   0
SOCORRO.........................  70  47  74  47 /  30  30  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  62  40  67  39 /  30  40  20   5
TIJERAS.........................  63  39  68  38 /  30  40  20   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  66  37  70  34 /  40  40  30   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  63  41  67  42 /  40  40  30   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  63  44  66  44 /  30  30  30   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  66  45  69  44 /  30  30  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  62  41  66  45 /  50  30  30  10
CAPULIN.........................  66  44  67  41 /  30  20  20  10
RATON...........................  69  42  70  38 /  20  20  20  10
SPRINGER........................  68  43  70  38 /  20  20  20  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  63  40  68  40 /  40  30  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  72  49  72  49 /  10  10  20  10
ROY.............................  66  47  69  44 /  20  20  20  10
CONCHAS.........................  72  51  76  49 /  20  20  20  10
SANTA ROSA......................  69  50  73  50 /  20  30  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  75  51  75  49 /  20  20  20  10
CLOVIS..........................  70  51  69  50 /  20  30  30  10
PORTALES........................  70  52  69  49 /  20  30  30  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  68  51  71  50 /  20  30  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  69  52  71  50 /  40  30  30  10
PICACHO.........................  63  47  67  47 /  40  30  30  10
ELK.............................  59  46  63  46 /  40  30  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33















000
FXUS65 KABQ 210528
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG ITSELF NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO BY 21/12Z THEN WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH WHILE IT MOVES NORTHEAST
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE THROUGH 22/00Z. LINGERING SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH OCCASIONAL
MT OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THROUGH 21/09Z. LEE SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AFT 21/12Z. RESULTING SFC GRADIENT MAY DRAW
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BY 21/09Z AND
OBSCURE HIGHER TERRAIN UNTIL AROUND 21/16Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...242 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
REMAINING FAIRLY ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY THEN DRY WEATHER THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE NM BOOT HEEL WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP ACROSS
THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL USHER IN
DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. IN ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY
OVER NM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THEN SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ERUPTING THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE BEST IN THE EAST WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...WHILE ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE WEST. THERE
WILL BE A FEW STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HAIL
WILL BE A CONCERN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH CHILLY AIR ALOFT. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BOOT HEEL NOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NM
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY MORE COVERAGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THAN SUNDAY OR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR
LOWEST FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY...GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH NM. IT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR...WITH MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RAPIDLY BUILD TO OUR SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND MOVE OVER NM
FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE
NIGHTIME LOWS COOL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE IN AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED ONE YET.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST...THEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS NM SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS..BUT LITTLE OR
NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
LIKELY STAY ABOVE DAYTIME NORMALS. 40

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND DEVELOP THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

AN LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NM
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE FROM
THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. RECOVERIES AGAIN WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
NEARLY ALL AREAS. WETTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TUESDAY
WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY FASTER
STORM MOTIONS AND BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. VENT RATES WILL AVERAGE FAIR TO
GOOD.

A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND SCOUR OUT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WETTING PRECIP CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM ONCE AGAIN. VENT RATES
BY MODEL OUTPUT WERE POOR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VALUES
COME UP QUITE A BIT WITH THE STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS...COLD OVERNIGHT VALLEY TEMPS...AND
WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL TREND DOWN
CONSIDERABLY...WHILE RECOVERIES ARE BEST AROUND AREAS THAT RECEIVED
WETTING PRECIP FROM OUR CURRENT EVENT. THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE
BREAKDOWN IS THE MAIN CONSIDERATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT
IT DOES APPEAR BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW
AREAS OF MARGINALLY CRITICAL HUMIDITIES. 42

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 210528
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG ITSELF NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
NEW MEXICO BY 21/12Z THEN WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH WHILE IT MOVES NORTHEAST
OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE THROUGH 22/00Z. LINGERING SHOWERS
AND ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 WITH OCCASIONAL
MT OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN SHOULD CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH THROUGH 21/09Z. LEE SFC TROUGH CURRENTLY DEVELOPING AND
FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AFT 21/12Z. RESULTING SFC GRADIENT MAY DRAW
MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BY 21/09Z AND
OBSCURE HIGHER TERRAIN UNTIL AROUND 21/16Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...242 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
REMAINING FAIRLY ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY THEN DRY WEATHER THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE NM BOOT HEEL WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP ACROSS
THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL USHER IN
DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. IN ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY
OVER NM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THEN SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ERUPTING THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE BEST IN THE EAST WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...WHILE ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE WEST. THERE
WILL BE A FEW STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HAIL
WILL BE A CONCERN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH CHILLY AIR ALOFT. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BOOT HEEL NOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NM
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY MORE COVERAGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THAN SUNDAY OR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR
LOWEST FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY...GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH NM. IT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR...WITH MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RAPIDLY BUILD TO OUR SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND MOVE OVER NM
FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE
NIGHTIME LOWS COOL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE IN AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED ONE YET.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST...THEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS NM SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS..BUT LITTLE OR
NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
LIKELY STAY ABOVE DAYTIME NORMALS. 40

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND DEVELOP THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

AN LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NM
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE FROM
THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. RECOVERIES AGAIN WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
NEARLY ALL AREAS. WETTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TUESDAY
WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY FASTER
STORM MOTIONS AND BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. VENT RATES WILL AVERAGE FAIR TO
GOOD.

A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND SCOUR OUT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WETTING PRECIP CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM ONCE AGAIN. VENT RATES
BY MODEL OUTPUT WERE POOR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VALUES
COME UP QUITE A BIT WITH THE STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS...COLD OVERNIGHT VALLEY TEMPS...AND
WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL TREND DOWN
CONSIDERABLY...WHILE RECOVERIES ARE BEST AROUND AREAS THAT RECEIVED
WETTING PRECIP FROM OUR CURRENT EVENT. THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE
BREAKDOWN IS THE MAIN CONSIDERATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT
IT DOES APPEAR BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW
AREAS OF MARGINALLY CRITICAL HUMIDITIES. 42

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 202338
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
538 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG ITSELF NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY 21/12Z THEN WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH WHILE IT
MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE THROUGH 22/00Z.
MAJORITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL MT
OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AT 00Z SHOULD
DIMINISH AFT 21/03Z. LEE SFC TROUGH TO DEVELOP BY 21/12Z AND STRENGTHEN
THEREAFTER. RESULTING SFC GRADIENT MAY DRAW MVFR TO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND
OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BY 21/09Z AND OBSCURE HIGHER
TERRAIN UNTIL AROUND 21/15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...242 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
REMAINING FAIRLY ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY THEN DRY WEATHER THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE NM BOOT HEEL WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP ACROSS
THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL USHER IN
DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. IN ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY
OVER NM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THEN SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ERUPTING THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE BEST IN THE EAST WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...WHILE ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE WEST. THERE
WILL BE A FEW STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HAIL
WILL BE A CONCERN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH CHILLY AIR ALOFT. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BOOT HEEL NOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NM
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY MORE COVERAGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THAN SUNDAY OR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR
LOWEST FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY...GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH NM. IT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR...WITH MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RAPIDLY BUILD TO OUR SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND MOVE OVER NM
FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE
NIGHTIME LOWS COOL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE IN AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED ONE YET.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST...THEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS NM SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS..BUT LITTLE OR
NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
LIKELY STAY ABOVE DAYTIME NORMALS. 40

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND DEVELOP THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

AN LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NM
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE FROM
THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. RECOVERIES AGAIN WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
NEARLY ALL AREAS. WETTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TUESDAY
WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY FASTER
STORM MOTIONS AND BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. VENT RATES WILL AVERAGE FAIR TO
GOOD.

A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND SCOUR OUT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WETTING PRECIP CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM ONCE AGAIN. VENT RATES
BY MODEL OUTPUT WERE POOR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VALUES
COME UP QUITE A BIT WITH THE STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS...COLD OVERNIGHT VALLEY TEMPS...AND
WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL TREND DOWN
CONSIDERABLY...WHILE RECOVERIES ARE BEST AROUND AREAS THAT RECEIVED
WETTING PRECIP FROM OUR CURRENT EVENT. THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE
BREAKDOWN IS THE MAIN CONSIDERATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT
IT DOES APPEAR BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW
AREAS OF MARGINALLY CRITICAL HUMIDITIES. 42

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 202338
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
538 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG ITSELF NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY 21/12Z THEN WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH WHILE IT
MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE THROUGH 22/00Z.
MAJORITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL MT
OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AT 00Z SHOULD
DIMINISH AFT 21/03Z. LEE SFC TROUGH TO DEVELOP BY 21/12Z AND STRENGTHEN
THEREAFTER. RESULTING SFC GRADIENT MAY DRAW MVFR TO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND
OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BY 21/09Z AND OBSCURE HIGHER
TERRAIN UNTIL AROUND 21/15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...242 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
REMAINING FAIRLY ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY THEN DRY WEATHER THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE NM BOOT HEEL WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP ACROSS
THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL USHER IN
DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. IN ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY
OVER NM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THEN SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ERUPTING THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE BEST IN THE EAST WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...WHILE ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE WEST. THERE
WILL BE A FEW STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HAIL
WILL BE A CONCERN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH CHILLY AIR ALOFT. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BOOT HEEL NOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NM
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY MORE COVERAGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THAN SUNDAY OR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR
LOWEST FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY...GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH NM. IT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR...WITH MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RAPIDLY BUILD TO OUR SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND MOVE OVER NM
FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE
NIGHTIME LOWS COOL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE IN AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED ONE YET.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST...THEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS NM SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS..BUT LITTLE OR
NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
LIKELY STAY ABOVE DAYTIME NORMALS. 40

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND DEVELOP THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

AN LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NM
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE FROM
THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. RECOVERIES AGAIN WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
NEARLY ALL AREAS. WETTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TUESDAY
WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY FASTER
STORM MOTIONS AND BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. VENT RATES WILL AVERAGE FAIR TO
GOOD.

A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND SCOUR OUT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WETTING PRECIP CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM ONCE AGAIN. VENT RATES
BY MODEL OUTPUT WERE POOR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VALUES
COME UP QUITE A BIT WITH THE STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS...COLD OVERNIGHT VALLEY TEMPS...AND
WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL TREND DOWN
CONSIDERABLY...WHILE RECOVERIES ARE BEST AROUND AREAS THAT RECEIVED
WETTING PRECIP FROM OUR CURRENT EVENT. THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE
BREAKDOWN IS THE MAIN CONSIDERATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT
IT DOES APPEAR BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW
AREAS OF MARGINALLY CRITICAL HUMIDITIES. 42

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 202338
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
538 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG ITSELF NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY 21/12Z THEN WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH WHILE IT
MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE THROUGH 22/00Z.
MAJORITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL MT
OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AT 00Z SHOULD
DIMINISH AFT 21/03Z. LEE SFC TROUGH TO DEVELOP BY 21/12Z AND STRENGTHEN
THEREAFTER. RESULTING SFC GRADIENT MAY DRAW MVFR TO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND
OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BY 21/09Z AND OBSCURE HIGHER
TERRAIN UNTIL AROUND 21/15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...242 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
REMAINING FAIRLY ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY THEN DRY WEATHER THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE NM BOOT HEEL WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP ACROSS
THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL USHER IN
DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. IN ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY
OVER NM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THEN SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ERUPTING THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE BEST IN THE EAST WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...WHILE ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE WEST. THERE
WILL BE A FEW STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HAIL
WILL BE A CONCERN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH CHILLY AIR ALOFT. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BOOT HEEL NOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NM
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY MORE COVERAGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THAN SUNDAY OR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR
LOWEST FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY...GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH NM. IT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR...WITH MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RAPIDLY BUILD TO OUR SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND MOVE OVER NM
FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE
NIGHTIME LOWS COOL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE IN AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED ONE YET.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST...THEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS NM SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS..BUT LITTLE OR
NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
LIKELY STAY ABOVE DAYTIME NORMALS. 40

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND DEVELOP THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

AN LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NM
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE FROM
THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. RECOVERIES AGAIN WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
NEARLY ALL AREAS. WETTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TUESDAY
WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY FASTER
STORM MOTIONS AND BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. VENT RATES WILL AVERAGE FAIR TO
GOOD.

A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND SCOUR OUT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WETTING PRECIP CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM ONCE AGAIN. VENT RATES
BY MODEL OUTPUT WERE POOR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VALUES
COME UP QUITE A BIT WITH THE STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS...COLD OVERNIGHT VALLEY TEMPS...AND
WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL TREND DOWN
CONSIDERABLY...WHILE RECOVERIES ARE BEST AROUND AREAS THAT RECEIVED
WETTING PRECIP FROM OUR CURRENT EVENT. THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE
BREAKDOWN IS THE MAIN CONSIDERATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT
IT DOES APPEAR BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW
AREAS OF MARGINALLY CRITICAL HUMIDITIES. 42

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 202338
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
538 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DRAG ITSELF NORTHEASTWARD INTO
SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO BY 21/12Z THEN WEAKEN INTO A TROUGH WHILE IT
MOVES NORTHEAST OVER THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE THROUGH 22/00Z.
MAJORITY OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OCCASIONAL MT
OBSCURATIONS AND BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN RAIN AT 00Z SHOULD
DIMINISH AFT 21/03Z. LEE SFC TROUGH TO DEVELOP BY 21/12Z AND STRENGTHEN
THEREAFTER. RESULTING SFC GRADIENT MAY DRAW MVFR TO IFR
CIGS/VSBYS IN BR TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND
OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS BY 21/09Z AND OBSCURE HIGHER
TERRAIN UNTIL AROUND 21/15Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...242 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
REMAINING FAIRLY ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY THEN DRY WEATHER THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE NM BOOT HEEL WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP ACROSS
THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL USHER IN
DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. IN ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY
OVER NM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THEN SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ERUPTING THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE BEST IN THE EAST WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...WHILE ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE WEST. THERE
WILL BE A FEW STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HAIL
WILL BE A CONCERN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH CHILLY AIR ALOFT. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BOOT HEEL NOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NM
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY MORE COVERAGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THAN SUNDAY OR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR
LOWEST FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY...GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH NM. IT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR...WITH MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RAPIDLY BUILD TO OUR SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND MOVE OVER NM
FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE
NIGHTIME LOWS COOL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE IN AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED ONE YET.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST...THEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS NM SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS..BUT LITTLE OR
NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
LIKELY STAY ABOVE DAYTIME NORMALS. 40

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND DEVELOP THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

AN LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NM
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE FROM
THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. RECOVERIES AGAIN WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
NEARLY ALL AREAS. WETTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TUESDAY
WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY FASTER
STORM MOTIONS AND BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. VENT RATES WILL AVERAGE FAIR TO
GOOD.

A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND SCOUR OUT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WETTING PRECIP CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM ONCE AGAIN. VENT RATES
BY MODEL OUTPUT WERE POOR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VALUES
COME UP QUITE A BIT WITH THE STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS...COLD OVERNIGHT VALLEY TEMPS...AND
WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL TREND DOWN
CONSIDERABLY...WHILE RECOVERIES ARE BEST AROUND AREAS THAT RECEIVED
WETTING PRECIP FROM OUR CURRENT EVENT. THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE
BREAKDOWN IS THE MAIN CONSIDERATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT
IT DOES APPEAR BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW
AREAS OF MARGINALLY CRITICAL HUMIDITIES. 42

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 202042
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
242 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
REMAINING FAIRLY ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY THEN DRY WEATHER THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE NM BOOT HEEL WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP ACROSS
THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL USHER IN
DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. IN ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY
OVER NM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THEN SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ERUPTING THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE BEST IN THE EAST WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...WHILE ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE WEST. THERE
WILL BE A FEW STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HAIL
WILL BE A CONCERN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH CHILLY AIR ALOFT. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BOOT HEEL NOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NM
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY MORE COVERAGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THAN SUNDAY OR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR
LOWEST FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY...GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH NM. IT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR...WITH MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RAPIDLY BUILD TO OUR SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND MOVE OVER NM
FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE
NIGHTIME LOWS COOL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE IN AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED ONE YET.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST...THEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS NM SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS..BUT LITTLE OR
NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
LIKELY STAY ABOVE DAYTIME NORMALS. 40

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND DEVELOP THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

AN LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NM
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE FROM
THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. RECOVERIES AGAIN WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
NEARLY ALL AREAS. WETTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TUESDAY
WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY FASTER
STORM MOTIONS AND BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. VENT RATES WILL AVERAGE FAIR TO
GOOD.

A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND SCOUR OUT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WETTING PRECIP CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM ONCE AGAIN. VENT RATES
BY MODEL OUTPUT WERE POOR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VALUES
COME UP QUITE A BIT WITH THE STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS...COLD OVERNIGHT VALLEY TEMPS...AND
WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL TREND DOWN
CONSIDERABLY...WHILE RECOVERIES ARE BEST AROUND AREAS THAT RECEIVED
WETTING PRECIP FROM OUR CURRENT EVENT. THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE
BREAKDOWN IS THE MAIN CONSIDERATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT
IT DOES APPEAR BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW
AREAS OF MARGINALLY CRITICAL HUMIDITIES. 42

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
BETTER CONFIDENCE TODAY ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF AVIATION
IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS THINNING AROUND KROW...BUT THAT WILL LIKELY
NOT LAST LONG AS SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE AROUND THE
HIGH TERRAIN WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
PLACE. STEERING FLOW WILL SHIFT STORMS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
A BAND OF INSTABILITY CLEARLY DEFINED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS STRETCHES FROM NEAR KSRR NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
KABQ THEN WEST TO KGUP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO SHRA/TSRA
AFTER 21Z. THIS FEATURE WOULD RESULT IN TRAINING OF PRECIP
ACTIVITY SO LONGER DURATION IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
KAEG...HOWEVER FOCUSED ONLY A SMALL WINDOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE MAIN IMPACTS. ANOTHER
POTENTIAL ROUND OF RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT KROW OVERNIGHT
AS INDICATED BY NEARLY EVERY GUIDANCE MEMBER. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  46  69  43  70 /  10  20  30   0
DULCE...........................  37  63  37  66 /  10  30  50  20
CUBA............................  41  64  40  66 /  10  30  40  30
GALLUP..........................  40  66  36  69 /  10  30  30   0
EL MORRO........................  36  61  36  66 /  20  30  40   0
GRANTS..........................  39  65  37  69 /  10  30  30   5
QUEMADO.........................  43  62  42  66 /  20  30  30   0
GLENWOOD........................  38  71  38  74 /  20  20  20   0
CHAMA...........................  32  61  33  63 /  10  40  50  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  46  61  46  63 /  20  20  40  30
PECOS...........................  41  57  40  63 /  20  30  40  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  37  64  38  66 /  20  20  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  39  54  39  56 /  30  40  40  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  31  59  29  61 /  20  30  40  30
TAOS............................  38  64  38  65 /  10  20  30  10
MORA............................  40  61  40  64 /  20  30  40  30
ESPANOLA........................  46  68  47  70 /  10  20  30  10
SANTA FE........................  44  62  43  65 /  20  30  40  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  44  65  42  68 /  20  20  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  48  66  49  69 /  20  20  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  50  68  50  70 /  10  20  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  46  70  46  72 /  10  20  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  49  69  50  71 /  10  20  30  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  44  70  42  72 /  10  20  30  10
RIO RANCHO......................  48  69  49  71 /  10  20  30  10
SOCORRO.........................  48  70  46  74 /  20  20  30   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  41  61  41  66 /  20  30  40  20
TIJERAS.........................  44  63  39  67 /  20  30  40  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  35  65  35  69 /  20  30  40  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  41  62  40  66 /  30  30  40  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  44  63  43  66 /  30  30  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  44  66  42  70 /  30  30  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  41  63  38  65 /  30  40  30  30
CAPULIN.........................  43  67  45  66 /  10  20  20  20
RATON...........................  40  70  42  70 /  10  10  20  20
SPRINGER........................  41  69  43  70 /  10  10  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  40  62  40  68 /  20  30  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  48  74  50  72 /  10  10  10  20
ROY.............................  45  67  46  67 /  10  10  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  50  73  50  76 /  20  20  20  20
SANTA ROSA......................  48  69  48  74 /  20  20  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  49  75  51  76 /  20  20  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  49  69  50  70 /  20  20  30  30
PORTALES........................  49  69  50  70 /  20  20  30  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  49  68  51  72 /  20  20  30  30
ROSWELL.........................  52  68  52  74 /  30  40  30  30
PICACHO.........................  47  63  49  68 /  30  40  30  30
ELK.............................  44  59  43  63 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40/42





000
FXUS65 KABQ 202042
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
242 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
REMAINING FAIRLY ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY THEN DRY WEATHER THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE NM BOOT HEEL WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP ACROSS
THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL USHER IN
DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. IN ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY
OVER NM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THEN SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ERUPTING THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE BEST IN THE EAST WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...WHILE ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE WEST. THERE
WILL BE A FEW STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HAIL
WILL BE A CONCERN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH CHILLY AIR ALOFT. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BOOT HEEL NOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NM
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY MORE COVERAGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THAN SUNDAY OR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR
LOWEST FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY...GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH NM. IT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR...WITH MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RAPIDLY BUILD TO OUR SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND MOVE OVER NM
FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE
NIGHTIME LOWS COOL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE IN AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED ONE YET.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST...THEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS NM SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS..BUT LITTLE OR
NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
LIKELY STAY ABOVE DAYTIME NORMALS. 40

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND DEVELOP THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

AN LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NM
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE FROM
THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. RECOVERIES AGAIN WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
NEARLY ALL AREAS. WETTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TUESDAY
WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY FASTER
STORM MOTIONS AND BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. VENT RATES WILL AVERAGE FAIR TO
GOOD.

A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND SCOUR OUT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WETTING PRECIP CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM ONCE AGAIN. VENT RATES
BY MODEL OUTPUT WERE POOR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VALUES
COME UP QUITE A BIT WITH THE STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS...COLD OVERNIGHT VALLEY TEMPS...AND
WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL TREND DOWN
CONSIDERABLY...WHILE RECOVERIES ARE BEST AROUND AREAS THAT RECEIVED
WETTING PRECIP FROM OUR CURRENT EVENT. THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE
BREAKDOWN IS THE MAIN CONSIDERATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT
IT DOES APPEAR BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW
AREAS OF MARGINALLY CRITICAL HUMIDITIES. 42

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
BETTER CONFIDENCE TODAY ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF AVIATION
IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS THINNING AROUND KROW...BUT THAT WILL LIKELY
NOT LAST LONG AS SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE AROUND THE
HIGH TERRAIN WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
PLACE. STEERING FLOW WILL SHIFT STORMS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
A BAND OF INSTABILITY CLEARLY DEFINED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS STRETCHES FROM NEAR KSRR NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
KABQ THEN WEST TO KGUP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO SHRA/TSRA
AFTER 21Z. THIS FEATURE WOULD RESULT IN TRAINING OF PRECIP
ACTIVITY SO LONGER DURATION IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
KAEG...HOWEVER FOCUSED ONLY A SMALL WINDOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE MAIN IMPACTS. ANOTHER
POTENTIAL ROUND OF RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT KROW OVERNIGHT
AS INDICATED BY NEARLY EVERY GUIDANCE MEMBER. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  46  69  43  70 /  10  20  30   0
DULCE...........................  37  63  37  66 /  10  30  50  20
CUBA............................  41  64  40  66 /  10  30  40  30
GALLUP..........................  40  66  36  69 /  10  30  30   0
EL MORRO........................  36  61  36  66 /  20  30  40   0
GRANTS..........................  39  65  37  69 /  10  30  30   5
QUEMADO.........................  43  62  42  66 /  20  30  30   0
GLENWOOD........................  38  71  38  74 /  20  20  20   0
CHAMA...........................  32  61  33  63 /  10  40  50  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  46  61  46  63 /  20  20  40  30
PECOS...........................  41  57  40  63 /  20  30  40  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  37  64  38  66 /  20  20  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  39  54  39  56 /  30  40  40  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  31  59  29  61 /  20  30  40  30
TAOS............................  38  64  38  65 /  10  20  30  10
MORA............................  40  61  40  64 /  20  30  40  30
ESPANOLA........................  46  68  47  70 /  10  20  30  10
SANTA FE........................  44  62  43  65 /  20  30  40  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  44  65  42  68 /  20  20  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  48  66  49  69 /  20  20  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  50  68  50  70 /  10  20  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  46  70  46  72 /  10  20  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  49  69  50  71 /  10  20  30  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  44  70  42  72 /  10  20  30  10
RIO RANCHO......................  48  69  49  71 /  10  20  30  10
SOCORRO.........................  48  70  46  74 /  20  20  30   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  41  61  41  66 /  20  30  40  20
TIJERAS.........................  44  63  39  67 /  20  30  40  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  35  65  35  69 /  20  30  40  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  41  62  40  66 /  30  30  40  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  44  63  43  66 /  30  30  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  44  66  42  70 /  30  30  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  41  63  38  65 /  30  40  30  30
CAPULIN.........................  43  67  45  66 /  10  20  20  20
RATON...........................  40  70  42  70 /  10  10  20  20
SPRINGER........................  41  69  43  70 /  10  10  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  40  62  40  68 /  20  30  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  48  74  50  72 /  10  10  10  20
ROY.............................  45  67  46  67 /  10  10  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  50  73  50  76 /  20  20  20  20
SANTA ROSA......................  48  69  48  74 /  20  20  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  49  75  51  76 /  20  20  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  49  69  50  70 /  20  20  30  30
PORTALES........................  49  69  50  70 /  20  20  30  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  49  68  51  72 /  20  20  30  30
ROSWELL.........................  52  68  52  74 /  30  40  30  30
PICACHO.........................  47  63  49  68 /  30  40  30  30
ELK.............................  44  59  43  63 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40/42





000
FXUS65 KABQ 202042
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
242 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
REMAINING FAIRLY ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY THEN DRY WEATHER THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE NM BOOT HEEL WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP ACROSS
THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL USHER IN
DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. IN ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY
OVER NM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THEN SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ERUPTING THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE BEST IN THE EAST WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...WHILE ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE WEST. THERE
WILL BE A FEW STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HAIL
WILL BE A CONCERN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH CHILLY AIR ALOFT. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BOOT HEEL NOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NM
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY MORE COVERAGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THAN SUNDAY OR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR
LOWEST FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY...GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH NM. IT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR...WITH MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RAPIDLY BUILD TO OUR SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND MOVE OVER NM
FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE
NIGHTIME LOWS COOL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE IN AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED ONE YET.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST...THEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS NM SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS..BUT LITTLE OR
NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
LIKELY STAY ABOVE DAYTIME NORMALS. 40

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND DEVELOP THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

AN LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NM
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE FROM
THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. RECOVERIES AGAIN WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
NEARLY ALL AREAS. WETTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TUESDAY
WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY FASTER
STORM MOTIONS AND BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. VENT RATES WILL AVERAGE FAIR TO
GOOD.

A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND SCOUR OUT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WETTING PRECIP CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM ONCE AGAIN. VENT RATES
BY MODEL OUTPUT WERE POOR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VALUES
COME UP QUITE A BIT WITH THE STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS...COLD OVERNIGHT VALLEY TEMPS...AND
WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL TREND DOWN
CONSIDERABLY...WHILE RECOVERIES ARE BEST AROUND AREAS THAT RECEIVED
WETTING PRECIP FROM OUR CURRENT EVENT. THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE
BREAKDOWN IS THE MAIN CONSIDERATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT
IT DOES APPEAR BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW
AREAS OF MARGINALLY CRITICAL HUMIDITIES. 42

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
BETTER CONFIDENCE TODAY ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF AVIATION
IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS THINNING AROUND KROW...BUT THAT WILL LIKELY
NOT LAST LONG AS SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE AROUND THE
HIGH TERRAIN WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
PLACE. STEERING FLOW WILL SHIFT STORMS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
A BAND OF INSTABILITY CLEARLY DEFINED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS STRETCHES FROM NEAR KSRR NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
KABQ THEN WEST TO KGUP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO SHRA/TSRA
AFTER 21Z. THIS FEATURE WOULD RESULT IN TRAINING OF PRECIP
ACTIVITY SO LONGER DURATION IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
KAEG...HOWEVER FOCUSED ONLY A SMALL WINDOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE MAIN IMPACTS. ANOTHER
POTENTIAL ROUND OF RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT KROW OVERNIGHT
AS INDICATED BY NEARLY EVERY GUIDANCE MEMBER. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  46  69  43  70 /  10  20  30   0
DULCE...........................  37  63  37  66 /  10  30  50  20
CUBA............................  41  64  40  66 /  10  30  40  30
GALLUP..........................  40  66  36  69 /  10  30  30   0
EL MORRO........................  36  61  36  66 /  20  30  40   0
GRANTS..........................  39  65  37  69 /  10  30  30   5
QUEMADO.........................  43  62  42  66 /  20  30  30   0
GLENWOOD........................  38  71  38  74 /  20  20  20   0
CHAMA...........................  32  61  33  63 /  10  40  50  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  46  61  46  63 /  20  20  40  30
PECOS...........................  41  57  40  63 /  20  30  40  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  37  64  38  66 /  20  20  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  39  54  39  56 /  30  40  40  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  31  59  29  61 /  20  30  40  30
TAOS............................  38  64  38  65 /  10  20  30  10
MORA............................  40  61  40  64 /  20  30  40  30
ESPANOLA........................  46  68  47  70 /  10  20  30  10
SANTA FE........................  44  62  43  65 /  20  30  40  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  44  65  42  68 /  20  20  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  48  66  49  69 /  20  20  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  50  68  50  70 /  10  20  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  46  70  46  72 /  10  20  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  49  69  50  71 /  10  20  30  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  44  70  42  72 /  10  20  30  10
RIO RANCHO......................  48  69  49  71 /  10  20  30  10
SOCORRO.........................  48  70  46  74 /  20  20  30   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  41  61  41  66 /  20  30  40  20
TIJERAS.........................  44  63  39  67 /  20  30  40  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  35  65  35  69 /  20  30  40  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  41  62  40  66 /  30  30  40  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  44  63  43  66 /  30  30  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  44  66  42  70 /  30  30  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  41  63  38  65 /  30  40  30  30
CAPULIN.........................  43  67  45  66 /  10  20  20  20
RATON...........................  40  70  42  70 /  10  10  20  20
SPRINGER........................  41  69  43  70 /  10  10  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  40  62  40  68 /  20  30  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  48  74  50  72 /  10  10  10  20
ROY.............................  45  67  46  67 /  10  10  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  50  73  50  76 /  20  20  20  20
SANTA ROSA......................  48  69  48  74 /  20  20  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  49  75  51  76 /  20  20  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  49  69  50  70 /  20  20  30  30
PORTALES........................  49  69  50  70 /  20  20  30  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  49  68  51  72 /  20  20  30  30
ROSWELL.........................  52  68  52  74 /  30  40  30  30
PICACHO.........................  47  63  49  68 /  30  40  30  30
ELK.............................  44  59  43  63 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40/42





000
FXUS65 KABQ 202042
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
242 PM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
REMAINING FAIRLY ACTIVE INTO WEDNESDAY THEN DRY WEATHER THURSDAY
INTO THE WEEKEND.

DAILY ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE STORM SYSTEM NEAR THE NM BOOT HEEL WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTHEAST
AND WEAKEN THROUGH TUESDAY. THEN A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP ACROSS
THE STATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL USHER IN
DRIER AIR BEHIND IT. IN ADDITION...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD RAPIDLY
OVER NM FOR THE END OF THE WEEK THEN SHIFT EAST OVER THE WEEKEND AS
THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND STORMS ERUPTING THIS AFTERNOON THANKS TO AN UNSTABLE
ATMOSPHERE. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THE BEST IN THE EAST WITH DEWPOINTS
IN THE 50S...WHILE ONLY IN THE 30S AND 40S OVER THE WEST. THERE
WILL BE A FEW STORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. HAIL
WILL BE A CONCERN JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE WITH CHILLY AIR ALOFT. THE
ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE WELL INTO THE NIGHT.

LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE BOOT HEEL NOW WILL DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS NM
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. LOOK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH LIKELY MORE COVERAGE ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THAN SUNDAY OR TODAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT THEIR
LOWEST FOR MOST LOCATIONS TUESDAY...GENERALLY WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF NORMAL.

WEDNESDAY WILL BE A TRANSITION DAY AS THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
SWINGS THROUGH NM. IT WILL USHER IN DRIER AIR...WITH MOST OF THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
THEN RAPIDLY BUILD TO OUR SOUTHWEST THURSDAY AND MOVE OVER NM
FRIDAY. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL WARM SIGNIFICANTLY WHILE
NIGHTIME LOWS COOL...BUT NOT ENOUGH FOR A FREEZE IN AREAS THAT
HAVE NOT EXPERIENCED ONE YET.

THE HIGH WILL SHIFT QUICKLY EAST OVER THE WEEKEND WITH INCREASING
SOUTHWEST...THEN WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH
WILL MOVE RAPIDLY ACROSS NM SUNDAY WITH GUSTY WINDS..BUT LITTLE OR
NO PRECIPITATION. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SUNDAY AND MONDAY...BUT
LIKELY STAY ABOVE DAYTIME NORMALS. 40

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE
A SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND DRYING TREND DEVELOP THURSDAY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

AN LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CHURNING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN NM
WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND DRIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL NM
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE FROM
THE STRONGER ACTIVITY. RECOVERIES AGAIN WILL BE VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT
NEARLY ALL AREAS. WETTING RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL FAVOR AREAS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TUESDAY
WILL BE A NEAR REPEAT OF TODAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SLIGHTLY FASTER
STORM MOTIONS AND BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPS WILL
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER. VENT RATES WILL AVERAGE FAIR TO
GOOD.

A FAST MOVING UPPER TROUGH WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY
AND SCOUR OUT REMAINING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. WETTING PRECIP CHANCES
ARE EXPECTED TO FAVOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM ONCE AGAIN. VENT RATES
BY MODEL OUTPUT WERE POOR...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE VALUES
COME UP QUITE A BIT WITH THE STRONGER MID/UPPER FLOW EXPECTED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH THE TROUGH PASSAGE.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH VERY LIGHT WINDS...COLD OVERNIGHT VALLEY TEMPS...AND
WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL TREND DOWN
CONSIDERABLY...WHILE RECOVERIES ARE BEST AROUND AREAS THAT RECEIVED
WETTING PRECIP FROM OUR CURRENT EVENT. THE TIMING OF THE RIDGE
BREAKDOWN IS THE MAIN CONSIDERATION IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST...BUT
IT DOES APPEAR BY SUNDAY WINDS WILL PICK UP OVER THE AREA WITH A FEW
AREAS OF MARGINALLY CRITICAL HUMIDITIES. 42

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
BETTER CONFIDENCE TODAY ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF AVIATION
IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS THINNING AROUND KROW...BUT THAT WILL LIKELY
NOT LAST LONG AS SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE AROUND THE
HIGH TERRAIN WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
PLACE. STEERING FLOW WILL SHIFT STORMS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
A BAND OF INSTABILITY CLEARLY DEFINED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS STRETCHES FROM NEAR KSRR NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
KABQ THEN WEST TO KGUP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO SHRA/TSRA
AFTER 21Z. THIS FEATURE WOULD RESULT IN TRAINING OF PRECIP
ACTIVITY SO LONGER DURATION IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
KAEG...HOWEVER FOCUSED ONLY A SMALL WINDOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE MAIN IMPACTS. ANOTHER
POTENTIAL ROUND OF RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT KROW OVERNIGHT
AS INDICATED BY NEARLY EVERY GUIDANCE MEMBER. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  46  69  43  70 /  10  20  30   0
DULCE...........................  37  63  37  66 /  10  30  50  20
CUBA............................  41  64  40  66 /  10  30  40  30
GALLUP..........................  40  66  36  69 /  10  30  30   0
EL MORRO........................  36  61  36  66 /  20  30  40   0
GRANTS..........................  39  65  37  69 /  10  30  30   5
QUEMADO.........................  43  62  42  66 /  20  30  30   0
GLENWOOD........................  38  71  38  74 /  20  20  20   0
CHAMA...........................  32  61  33  63 /  10  40  50  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  46  61  46  63 /  20  20  40  30
PECOS...........................  41  57  40  63 /  20  30  40  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  37  64  38  66 /  20  20  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  39  54  39  56 /  30  40  40  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  31  59  29  61 /  20  30  40  30
TAOS............................  38  64  38  65 /  10  20  30  10
MORA............................  40  61  40  64 /  20  30  40  30
ESPANOLA........................  46  68  47  70 /  10  20  30  10
SANTA FE........................  44  62  43  65 /  20  30  40  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  44  65  42  68 /  20  20  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  48  66  49  69 /  20  20  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  50  68  50  70 /  10  20  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  46  70  46  72 /  10  20  30  10
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  49  69  50  71 /  10  20  30  10
LOS LUNAS.......................  44  70  42  72 /  10  20  30  10
RIO RANCHO......................  48  69  49  71 /  10  20  30  10
SOCORRO.........................  48  70  46  74 /  20  20  30   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  41  61  41  66 /  20  30  40  20
TIJERAS.........................  44  63  39  67 /  20  30  40  20
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  35  65  35  69 /  20  30  40  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  41  62  40  66 /  30  30  40  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  44  63  43  66 /  30  30  30  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  44  66  42  70 /  30  30  30  20
RUIDOSO.........................  41  63  38  65 /  30  40  30  30
CAPULIN.........................  43  67  45  66 /  10  20  20  20
RATON...........................  40  70  42  70 /  10  10  20  20
SPRINGER........................  41  69  43  70 /  10  10  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  40  62  40  68 /  20  30  30  20
CLAYTON.........................  48  74  50  72 /  10  10  10  20
ROY.............................  45  67  46  67 /  10  10  20  20
CONCHAS.........................  50  73  50  76 /  20  20  20  20
SANTA ROSA......................  48  69  48  74 /  20  20  30  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  49  75  51  76 /  20  20  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  49  69  50  70 /  20  20  30  30
PORTALES........................  49  69  50  70 /  20  20  30  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  49  68  51  72 /  20  20  30  30
ROSWELL.........................  52  68  52  74 /  30  40  30  30
PICACHO.........................  47  63  49  68 /  30  40  30  30
ELK.............................  44  59  43  63 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40/42





000
FXUS65 KABQ 201750 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
BETTER CONFIDENCE TODAY ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF AVIATION
IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS THINNING AROUND KROW...BUT THAT WILL LIKELY
NOT LAST LONG AS SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE AROUND THE
HIGH TERRAIN WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
PLACE. STEERING FLOW WILL SHIFT STORMS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
A BAND OF INSTABILITY CLEARLY DEFINED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS STRETCHES FROM NEAR KSRR NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
KABQ THEN WEST TO KGUP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO SHRA/TSRA
AFTER 21Z. THIS FEATURE WOULD RESULT IN TRAINING OF PRECIP
ACTIVITY SO LONGER DURATION IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
KAEG...HOWEVER FOCUSED ONLY A SMALL WINDOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE MAIN IMPACTS. ANOTHER
POTENTIAL ROUND OF RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT KROW OVERNIGHT
AS INDICATED BY NEARLY EVERY GUIDANCE MEMBER.

GUYER

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF NEW MEXICO TODAY. AS THE
SYSTEMS WEAKENS TUESDAY...SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE
AND BE PRIMARILY OVER AND NEAR MOUNTAINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM ARIZONA WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO TO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN DOUGLAS
ARIZONA AND HERMOSILLO MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. SPEED MAX/VORT
LOB ROTATING NWWD THROUGH SW NM EARLY THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NWWD THROUGH SW SOCORRO COUNTY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD/DEVELOP OVER MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN 5 AND
10MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TREND DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE SW OPENS UP AND
BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN. STEERING WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10 MPH. AS THE THIRD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN
THE RECENT SERIES OF WAVES APPROACHES WRN NM TUESDAY NIGHT...NAM AND
GFS KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM TUESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS THIRD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
WORK INTO WRN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY LIMITING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TO THE TX LINE.

SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH TRANSLATES EAST-NE TOWARD NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT A FEW SPOTS COULD BEGIN
TO CHALLENGE RECORD VALUES FOR THE DATE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR/OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BRINGS UP THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OVER NM SATURDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...REMIANS DRY. BOTH
MODELS BRING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE PICTURE FROM THE NW LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION TO PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A SIGNIFICANT DRYING/WARMING TREND.

ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH DECENT WETTING POTENTIAL GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS AND STORM MOTION OF 10 MPH OR LESS AS THE NEAR-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE BOOTHEEL. VENT RATES LOOK TO BE
A MIXED-BAG TODAY AND MAY HAVE A HARD TIME IMPROVING MUCH IN
VALLEYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST...WILL
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ABSORB THE UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH WHICH WILL OPEN UP OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THEN TREND
DOWN ABRUPTLY AS DRY AIR FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A WARMING/DRYING TREND TO KICK-OFF THURSDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER ARIZONA THEN
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 592DAM AT 500MB BY
00Z SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
FOR LATE OCTOBER 500MB HEIGHTS. VENT RATES WILL TAKE A HIT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE BUILDING UPPER HIGH...DESPITE TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY AND
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND
MUCH IMPROVED VENTILATION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS PICKS
UP SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AND
PULLS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO...BUT OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY
FOR NOW FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 201750 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
BETTER CONFIDENCE TODAY ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF AVIATION
IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS THINNING AROUND KROW...BUT THAT WILL LIKELY
NOT LAST LONG AS SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE AROUND THE
HIGH TERRAIN WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
PLACE. STEERING FLOW WILL SHIFT STORMS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
A BAND OF INSTABILITY CLEARLY DEFINED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS STRETCHES FROM NEAR KSRR NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
KABQ THEN WEST TO KGUP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO SHRA/TSRA
AFTER 21Z. THIS FEATURE WOULD RESULT IN TRAINING OF PRECIP
ACTIVITY SO LONGER DURATION IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
KAEG...HOWEVER FOCUSED ONLY A SMALL WINDOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE MAIN IMPACTS. ANOTHER
POTENTIAL ROUND OF RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT KROW OVERNIGHT
AS INDICATED BY NEARLY EVERY GUIDANCE MEMBER.

GUYER

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF NEW MEXICO TODAY. AS THE
SYSTEMS WEAKENS TUESDAY...SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE
AND BE PRIMARILY OVER AND NEAR MOUNTAINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM ARIZONA WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO TO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN DOUGLAS
ARIZONA AND HERMOSILLO MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. SPEED MAX/VORT
LOB ROTATING NWWD THROUGH SW NM EARLY THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NWWD THROUGH SW SOCORRO COUNTY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD/DEVELOP OVER MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN 5 AND
10MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TREND DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE SW OPENS UP AND
BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN. STEERING WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10 MPH. AS THE THIRD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN
THE RECENT SERIES OF WAVES APPROACHES WRN NM TUESDAY NIGHT...NAM AND
GFS KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM TUESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS THIRD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
WORK INTO WRN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY LIMITING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TO THE TX LINE.

SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH TRANSLATES EAST-NE TOWARD NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT A FEW SPOTS COULD BEGIN
TO CHALLENGE RECORD VALUES FOR THE DATE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR/OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BRINGS UP THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OVER NM SATURDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...REMIANS DRY. BOTH
MODELS BRING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE PICTURE FROM THE NW LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION TO PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A SIGNIFICANT DRYING/WARMING TREND.

ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH DECENT WETTING POTENTIAL GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS AND STORM MOTION OF 10 MPH OR LESS AS THE NEAR-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE BOOTHEEL. VENT RATES LOOK TO BE
A MIXED-BAG TODAY AND MAY HAVE A HARD TIME IMPROVING MUCH IN
VALLEYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST...WILL
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ABSORB THE UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH WHICH WILL OPEN UP OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THEN TREND
DOWN ABRUPTLY AS DRY AIR FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A WARMING/DRYING TREND TO KICK-OFF THURSDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER ARIZONA THEN
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 592DAM AT 500MB BY
00Z SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
FOR LATE OCTOBER 500MB HEIGHTS. VENT RATES WILL TAKE A HIT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE BUILDING UPPER HIGH...DESPITE TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY AND
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND
MUCH IMPROVED VENTILATION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS PICKS
UP SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AND
PULLS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO...BUT OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY
FOR NOW FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 201750
AFDABQ
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
BETTER CONFIDENCE TODAY ON PLACEMENT AND TIMING OF AVIATION
IMPACTS OVER THE NEXT 24 HRS. CURRENTLY...SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS LOW CLOUDS THINNING AROUND KROW...BUT THAT WILL LIKELY
NOT LAST LONG AS SHOWERS REDEVELOP OVER THE AREA. WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ELSEWHERE AROUND THE
HIGH TERRAIN WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND LIFT IN
PLACE. STEERING FLOW WILL SHIFT STORMS SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD.
A BAND OF INSTABILITY CLEARLY DEFINED ON THE LATEST RADAR AND
SATELLITE TRENDS STRETCHES FROM NEAR KSRR NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD
KABQ THEN WEST TO KGUP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INTO SHRA/TSRA
AFTER 21Z. THIS FEATURE WOULD RESULT IN TRAINING OF PRECIP
ACTIVITY SO LONGER DURATION IMPACTS ARE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
KAEG...HOWEVER FOCUSED ONLY A SMALL WINDOW BY LATE AFTERNOON.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL ARE MAIN IMPACTS. ANOTHER
POTENTIAL ROUND OF RAIN AND LOW CLOUDS MAY IMPACT KROW OVERNIGHT
AS INDICATED BY NEARLY EVERY GUIDANCE MEMBER.

GUYER

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF NEW MEXICO TODAY. AS THE
SYSTEMS WEAKENS TUESDAY...SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE
AND BE PRIMARILY OVER AND NEAR MOUNTAINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM ARIZONA WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO TO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN DOUGLAS
ARIZONA AND HERMOSILLO MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. SPEED MAX/VORT
LOB ROTATING NWWD THROUGH SW NM EARLY THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NWWD THROUGH SW SOCORRO COUNTY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD/DEVELOP OVER MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN 5 AND
10MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TREND DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE SW OPENS UP AND
BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN. STEERING WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10 MPH. AS THE THIRD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN
THE RECENT SERIES OF WAVES APPROACHES WRN NM TUESDAY NIGHT...NAM AND
GFS KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM TUESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS THIRD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
WORK INTO WRN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY LIMITING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TO THE TX LINE.

SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH TRANSLATES EAST-NE TOWARD NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT A FEW SPOTS COULD BEGIN
TO CHALLENGE RECORD VALUES FOR THE DATE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR/OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BRINGS UP THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OVER NM SATURDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...REMIANS DRY. BOTH
MODELS BRING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE PICTURE FROM THE NW LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION TO PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A SIGNIFICANT DRYING/WARMING TREND.

ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH DECENT WETTING POTENTIAL GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS AND STORM MOTION OF 10 MPH OR LESS AS THE NEAR-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE BOOTHEEL. VENT RATES LOOK TO BE
A MIXED-BAG TODAY AND MAY HAVE A HARD TIME IMPROVING MUCH IN
VALLEYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST...WILL
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ABSORB THE UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH WHICH WILL OPEN UP OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THEN TREND
DOWN ABRUPTLY AS DRY AIR FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A WARMING/DRYING TREND TO KICK-OFF THURSDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER ARIZONA THEN
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 592DAM AT 500MB BY
00Z SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
FOR LATE OCTOBER 500MB HEIGHTS. VENT RATES WILL TAKE A HIT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE BUILDING UPPER HIGH...DESPITE TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY AND
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND
MUCH IMPROVED VENTILATION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS PICKS
UP SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AND
PULLS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO...BUT OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY
FOR NOW FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$











000
FXUS65 KABQ 201132 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
532 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CIGS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT KROW THIS MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR BY 17Z...THEN REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KGUP...KFMN AND KTCC
THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. OF THOSE
THREE SITES...KGUP HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO BE IMPACTED BY
FOG FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING GIVEN CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS
AND WET SURFACES FROM RAIN YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY TODAY IN/NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABILITIES
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO
PERSIST WITH LIGHT WINDS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF NEW MEXICO TODAY. AS THE
SYSTEMS WEAKENS TUESDAY...SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE
AND BE PRIMARILY OVER AND NEAR MOUNTAINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM ARIZONA WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO TO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN DOUGLAS
ARIZONA AND HERMOSILLO MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. SPEED MAX/VORT
LOB ROTATING NWWD THROUGH SW NM EARLY THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NWWD THROUGH SW SOCORRO COUNTY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD/DEVELOP OVER MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN 5 AND
10MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TREND DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE SW OPENS UP AND
BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN. STEERING WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10 MPH. AS THE THIRD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN
THE RECENT SERIES OF WAVES APPROACHES WRN NM TUESDAY NIGHT...NAM AND
GFS KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM TUESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS THIRD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
WORK INTO WRN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY LIMITING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TO THE TX LINE.

SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH TRANSLATES EAST-NE TOWARD NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT A FEW SPOTS COULD BEGIN
TO CHALLENGE RECORD VALUES FOR THE DATE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR/OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BRINGS UP THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OVER NM SATURDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...REMIANS DRY. BOTH
MODELS BRING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE PICTURE FROM THE NW LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION TO PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A SIGNIFICANT DRYING/WARMING TREND.

ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH DECENT WETTING POTENTIAL GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS AND STORM MOTION OF 10 MPH OR LESS AS THE NEAR-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE BOOTHEEL. VENT RATES LOOK TO BE
A MIXED-BAG TODAY AND MAY HAVE A HARD TIME IMPROVING MUCH IN
VALLEYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST...WILL
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ABSORB THE UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH WHICH WILL OPEN UP OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THEN TREND
DOWN ABRUPTLY AS DRY AIR FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A WARMING/DRYING TREND TO KICK-OFF THURSDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER ARIZONA THEN
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 592DAM AT 500MB BY
00Z SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
FOR LATE OCTOBER 500MB HEIGHTS. VENT RATES WILL TAKE A HIT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE BUILDING UPPER HIGH...DESPITE TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY AND
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND
MUCH IMPROVED VENTILATION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS PICKS
UP SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AND
PULLS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO...BUT OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY
FOR NOW FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33









000
FXUS65 KABQ 201132 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
532 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MVFR CIGS FORECAST TO DEVELOP AT KROW THIS MORNING WITH
IMPROVEMENT BACK TO VFR BY 17Z...THEN REDEVELOP LATE TONIGHT.
BRIEF MVFR OR EVEN IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT KGUP...KFMN AND KTCC
THIS MORNING...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. OF THOSE
THREE SITES...KGUP HAS THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO BE IMPACTED BY
FOG FOR A FEW HOURS THIS MORNING GIVEN CLEAR SKIES...CALM WINDS
AND WET SURFACES FROM RAIN YESTERDAY. IN ADDITION...MVFR CONDITIONS
LIKELY TODAY IN/NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...BUT PROBABILITIES
TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS FORECAST TO
PERSIST WITH LIGHT WINDS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF NEW MEXICO TODAY. AS THE
SYSTEMS WEAKENS TUESDAY...SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE
AND BE PRIMARILY OVER AND NEAR MOUNTAINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM ARIZONA WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO TO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN DOUGLAS
ARIZONA AND HERMOSILLO MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. SPEED MAX/VORT
LOB ROTATING NWWD THROUGH SW NM EARLY THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NWWD THROUGH SW SOCORRO COUNTY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD/DEVELOP OVER MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN 5 AND
10MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TREND DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE SW OPENS UP AND
BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN. STEERING WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10 MPH. AS THE THIRD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN
THE RECENT SERIES OF WAVES APPROACHES WRN NM TUESDAY NIGHT...NAM AND
GFS KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM TUESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS THIRD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
WORK INTO WRN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY LIMITING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TO THE TX LINE.

SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH TRANSLATES EAST-NE TOWARD NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT A FEW SPOTS COULD BEGIN
TO CHALLENGE RECORD VALUES FOR THE DATE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR/OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BRINGS UP THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OVER NM SATURDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...REMIANS DRY. BOTH
MODELS BRING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE PICTURE FROM THE NW LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION TO PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A SIGNIFICANT DRYING/WARMING TREND.

ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH DECENT WETTING POTENTIAL GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS AND STORM MOTION OF 10 MPH OR LESS AS THE NEAR-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE BOOTHEEL. VENT RATES LOOK TO BE
A MIXED-BAG TODAY AND MAY HAVE A HARD TIME IMPROVING MUCH IN
VALLEYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST...WILL
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ABSORB THE UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH WHICH WILL OPEN UP OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THEN TREND
DOWN ABRUPTLY AS DRY AIR FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A WARMING/DRYING TREND TO KICK-OFF THURSDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER ARIZONA THEN
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 592DAM AT 500MB BY
00Z SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
FOR LATE OCTOBER 500MB HEIGHTS. VENT RATES WILL TAKE A HIT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE BUILDING UPPER HIGH...DESPITE TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY AND
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND
MUCH IMPROVED VENTILATION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS PICKS
UP SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AND
PULLS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO...BUT OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY
FOR NOW FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33










000
FXUS65 KABQ 200932
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF NEW MEXICO TODAY. AS THE
SYSTEMS WEAKENS TUESDAY...SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE
AND BE PRIMARILY OVER AND NEAR MOUNTAINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM ARIZONA WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO TO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN DOUGLAS
ARIZONA AND HERMOSILLO MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. SPEED MAX/VORT
LOB ROTATING NWWD THROUGH SW NM EARLY THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NWWD THROUGH SW SOCORRO COUNTY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD/DEVELOP OVER MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN 5 AND
10MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TREND DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE SW OPENS UP AND
BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN. STEERING WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10 MPH. AS THE THIRD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN
THE RECENT SERIES OF WAVES APPROACHES WRN NM TUESDAY NIGHT...NAM AND
GFS KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM TUESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS THIRD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
WORK INTO WRN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY LIMITING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TO THE TX LINE.

SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH TRANSLATES EAST-NE TOWARD NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT A FEW SPOTS COULD BEGIN
TO CHALLENGE RECORD VALUES FOR THE DATE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR/OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BRINGS UP THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OVER NM SATURDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...REMIANS DRY. BOTH
MODELS BRING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE PICTURE FROM THE NW LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION TO PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A SIGNIFICANT DRYING/WARMING TREND.

ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH DECENT WETTING POTENTIAL GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS AND STORM MOTION OF 10 MPH OR LESS AS THE NEAR-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE BOOTHEEL. VENT RATES LOOK TO BE
A MIXED-BAG TODAY AND MAY HAVE A HARD TIME IMPROVING MUCH IN
VALLEYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST...WILL
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ABSORB THE UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH WHICH WILL OPEN UP OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THEN TREND
DOWN ABRUPTLY AS DRY AIR FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A WARMING/DRYING TREND TO KICK-OFF THURSDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER ARIZONA THEN
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 592DAM AT 500MB BY
00Z SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
FOR LATE OCTOBER 500MB HEIGHTS. VENT RATES WILL TAKE A HIT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE BUILDING UPPER HIGH...DESPITE TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY AND
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND
MUCH IMPROVED VENTILATION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS PICKS
UP SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AND
PULLS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO...BUT OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY
FOR NOW FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW CENTERED VCNTY FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WILL SLOWLY TRACK
TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS SPREADING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
OVER NEW MEXICO. WELL DEFINED BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS CIRCULATION OVER SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL NM TO PERSIST
WHILE IT SWINGS N TO NEWD. TSTMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
35KT. MTS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN ISOLD TO WDLY SCT MVFR
TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTION AS WELL AS PATCHY
BR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  72  48  67  45 /  10  10  20  30
DULCE...........................  68  38  62  38 /  20  10  20  50
CUBA............................  68  42  63  40 /  20  10  20  40
GALLUP..........................  67  42  64  38 /  20  10  20  30
EL MORRO........................  63  37  60  36 /  30  10  30  40
GRANTS..........................  68  40  64  38 /  20  10  20  40
QUEMADO.........................  62  44  60  42 /  30  10  30  30
GLENWOOD........................  69  38  69  34 /  50  10  10  20
CHAMA...........................  64  33  59  33 /  30  10  30  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  65  47  61  46 /  30  10  20  40
PECOS...........................  63  41  57  41 /  30  20  30  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  64  38  63  38 /  30  10  20  40
RED RIVER.......................  56  40  53  39 /  40  30  40  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  61  31  58  30 /  40  20  30  40
TAOS............................  66  38  63  39 /  30  10  10  30
MORA............................  63  40  60  40 /  30  20  20  40
ESPANOLA........................  70  47  67  47 /  20  10  10  30
SANTA FE........................  66  44  61  43 /  30  20  20  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  70  45  65  42 /  20  20  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  70  49  65  48 /  20  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  72  51  67  50 /  20  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  74  47  69  46 /  10  10  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  73  50  68  50 /  10  10  10  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  72  45  69  41 /  20  10  10  30
RIO RANCHO......................  73  49  68  49 /  10  10  10  30
SOCORRO.........................  72  48  69  46 /  40  10  20  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  67  42  61  41 /  30  10  20  40
TIJERAS.........................  68  44  62  39 /  30  10  20  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  70  36  64  35 /  30  20  30  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  66  41  61  41 /  40  20  30  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  66  44  63  43 /  40  20  20  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  69  43  66  42 /  40  20  20  30
RUIDOSO.........................  64  39  63  38 /  60  20  30  40
CAPULIN.........................  67  45  65  46 /  10  10  20  20
RATON...........................  70  42  68  43 /  10  10  10  20
SPRINGER........................  70  43  67  44 /  20  10  10  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  66  40  61  40 /  20  20  20  30
CLAYTON.........................  71  49  72  51 /   5  10   5  10
ROY.............................  69  46  65  47 /   5  10  10  20
CONCHAS.........................  75  51  72  51 /  10  20  10  20
SANTA ROSA......................  72  49  68  48 /  20  20  10  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  77  50  74  52 /  10  20  10  20
CLOVIS..........................  72  49  70  51 /  20  20  10  30
PORTALES........................  71  49  70  51 /  30  20  10  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  71  50  68  52 /  20  20  10  30
ROSWELL.........................  70  52  67  52 /  50  20  30  30
PICACHO.........................  65  47  62  49 /  50  20  30  30
ELK.............................  60  43  58  43 /  60  20  30  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33














000
FXUS65 KABQ 200932
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF NEW MEXICO TODAY. AS THE
SYSTEMS WEAKENS TUESDAY...SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE
AND BE PRIMARILY OVER AND NEAR MOUNTAINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM ARIZONA WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO TO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN DOUGLAS
ARIZONA AND HERMOSILLO MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. SPEED MAX/VORT
LOB ROTATING NWWD THROUGH SW NM EARLY THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NWWD THROUGH SW SOCORRO COUNTY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD/DEVELOP OVER MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN 5 AND
10MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TREND DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE SW OPENS UP AND
BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN. STEERING WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10 MPH. AS THE THIRD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN
THE RECENT SERIES OF WAVES APPROACHES WRN NM TUESDAY NIGHT...NAM AND
GFS KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM TUESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS THIRD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
WORK INTO WRN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY LIMITING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TO THE TX LINE.

SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH TRANSLATES EAST-NE TOWARD NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT A FEW SPOTS COULD BEGIN
TO CHALLENGE RECORD VALUES FOR THE DATE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR/OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BRINGS UP THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OVER NM SATURDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...REMIANS DRY. BOTH
MODELS BRING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE PICTURE FROM THE NW LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION TO PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A SIGNIFICANT DRYING/WARMING TREND.

ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH DECENT WETTING POTENTIAL GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS AND STORM MOTION OF 10 MPH OR LESS AS THE NEAR-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE BOOTHEEL. VENT RATES LOOK TO BE
A MIXED-BAG TODAY AND MAY HAVE A HARD TIME IMPROVING MUCH IN
VALLEYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST...WILL
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ABSORB THE UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH WHICH WILL OPEN UP OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THEN TREND
DOWN ABRUPTLY AS DRY AIR FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A WARMING/DRYING TREND TO KICK-OFF THURSDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER ARIZONA THEN
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 592DAM AT 500MB BY
00Z SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
FOR LATE OCTOBER 500MB HEIGHTS. VENT RATES WILL TAKE A HIT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE BUILDING UPPER HIGH...DESPITE TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY AND
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND
MUCH IMPROVED VENTILATION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS PICKS
UP SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AND
PULLS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO...BUT OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY
FOR NOW FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW CENTERED VCNTY FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WILL SLOWLY TRACK
TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS SPREADING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
OVER NEW MEXICO. WELL DEFINED BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS CIRCULATION OVER SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL NM TO PERSIST
WHILE IT SWINGS N TO NEWD. TSTMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
35KT. MTS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN ISOLD TO WDLY SCT MVFR
TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTION AS WELL AS PATCHY
BR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  72  48  67  45 /  10  10  20  30
DULCE...........................  68  38  62  38 /  20  10  20  50
CUBA............................  68  42  63  40 /  20  10  20  40
GALLUP..........................  67  42  64  38 /  20  10  20  30
EL MORRO........................  63  37  60  36 /  30  10  30  40
GRANTS..........................  68  40  64  38 /  20  10  20  40
QUEMADO.........................  62  44  60  42 /  30  10  30  30
GLENWOOD........................  69  38  69  34 /  50  10  10  20
CHAMA...........................  64  33  59  33 /  30  10  30  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  65  47  61  46 /  30  10  20  40
PECOS...........................  63  41  57  41 /  30  20  30  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  64  38  63  38 /  30  10  20  40
RED RIVER.......................  56  40  53  39 /  40  30  40  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  61  31  58  30 /  40  20  30  40
TAOS............................  66  38  63  39 /  30  10  10  30
MORA............................  63  40  60  40 /  30  20  20  40
ESPANOLA........................  70  47  67  47 /  20  10  10  30
SANTA FE........................  66  44  61  43 /  30  20  20  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  70  45  65  42 /  20  20  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  70  49  65  48 /  20  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  72  51  67  50 /  20  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  74  47  69  46 /  10  10  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  73  50  68  50 /  10  10  10  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  72  45  69  41 /  20  10  10  30
RIO RANCHO......................  73  49  68  49 /  10  10  10  30
SOCORRO.........................  72  48  69  46 /  40  10  20  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  67  42  61  41 /  30  10  20  40
TIJERAS.........................  68  44  62  39 /  30  10  20  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  70  36  64  35 /  30  20  30  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  66  41  61  41 /  40  20  30  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  66  44  63  43 /  40  20  20  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  69  43  66  42 /  40  20  20  30
RUIDOSO.........................  64  39  63  38 /  60  20  30  40
CAPULIN.........................  67  45  65  46 /  10  10  20  20
RATON...........................  70  42  68  43 /  10  10  10  20
SPRINGER........................  70  43  67  44 /  20  10  10  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  66  40  61  40 /  20  20  20  30
CLAYTON.........................  71  49  72  51 /   5  10   5  10
ROY.............................  69  46  65  47 /   5  10  10  20
CONCHAS.........................  75  51  72  51 /  10  20  10  20
SANTA ROSA......................  72  49  68  48 /  20  20  10  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  77  50  74  52 /  10  20  10  20
CLOVIS..........................  72  49  70  51 /  20  20  10  30
PORTALES........................  71  49  70  51 /  30  20  10  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  71  50  68  52 /  20  20  10  30
ROSWELL.........................  70  52  67  52 /  50  20  30  30
PICACHO.........................  65  47  62  49 /  50  20  30  30
ELK.............................  60  43  58  43 /  60  20  30  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33














000
FXUS65 KABQ 200932
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF NEW MEXICO TODAY. AS THE
SYSTEMS WEAKENS TUESDAY...SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE
AND BE PRIMARILY OVER AND NEAR MOUNTAINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM ARIZONA WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO TO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN DOUGLAS
ARIZONA AND HERMOSILLO MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. SPEED MAX/VORT
LOB ROTATING NWWD THROUGH SW NM EARLY THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NWWD THROUGH SW SOCORRO COUNTY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD/DEVELOP OVER MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN 5 AND
10MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TREND DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE SW OPENS UP AND
BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN. STEERING WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10 MPH. AS THE THIRD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN
THE RECENT SERIES OF WAVES APPROACHES WRN NM TUESDAY NIGHT...NAM AND
GFS KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM TUESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS THIRD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
WORK INTO WRN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY LIMITING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TO THE TX LINE.

SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH TRANSLATES EAST-NE TOWARD NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT A FEW SPOTS COULD BEGIN
TO CHALLENGE RECORD VALUES FOR THE DATE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR/OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BRINGS UP THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OVER NM SATURDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...REMIANS DRY. BOTH
MODELS BRING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE PICTURE FROM THE NW LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION TO PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A SIGNIFICANT DRYING/WARMING TREND.

ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH DECENT WETTING POTENTIAL GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS AND STORM MOTION OF 10 MPH OR LESS AS THE NEAR-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE BOOTHEEL. VENT RATES LOOK TO BE
A MIXED-BAG TODAY AND MAY HAVE A HARD TIME IMPROVING MUCH IN
VALLEYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST...WILL
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ABSORB THE UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH WHICH WILL OPEN UP OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THEN TREND
DOWN ABRUPTLY AS DRY AIR FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A WARMING/DRYING TREND TO KICK-OFF THURSDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER ARIZONA THEN
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 592DAM AT 500MB BY
00Z SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
FOR LATE OCTOBER 500MB HEIGHTS. VENT RATES WILL TAKE A HIT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE BUILDING UPPER HIGH...DESPITE TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY AND
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND
MUCH IMPROVED VENTILATION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS PICKS
UP SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AND
PULLS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO...BUT OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY
FOR NOW FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW CENTERED VCNTY FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WILL SLOWLY TRACK
TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS SPREADING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
OVER NEW MEXICO. WELL DEFINED BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS CIRCULATION OVER SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL NM TO PERSIST
WHILE IT SWINGS N TO NEWD. TSTMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
35KT. MTS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN ISOLD TO WDLY SCT MVFR
TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTION AS WELL AS PATCHY
BR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  72  48  67  45 /  10  10  20  30
DULCE...........................  68  38  62  38 /  20  10  20  50
CUBA............................  68  42  63  40 /  20  10  20  40
GALLUP..........................  67  42  64  38 /  20  10  20  30
EL MORRO........................  63  37  60  36 /  30  10  30  40
GRANTS..........................  68  40  64  38 /  20  10  20  40
QUEMADO.........................  62  44  60  42 /  30  10  30  30
GLENWOOD........................  69  38  69  34 /  50  10  10  20
CHAMA...........................  64  33  59  33 /  30  10  30  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  65  47  61  46 /  30  10  20  40
PECOS...........................  63  41  57  41 /  30  20  30  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  64  38  63  38 /  30  10  20  40
RED RIVER.......................  56  40  53  39 /  40  30  40  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  61  31  58  30 /  40  20  30  40
TAOS............................  66  38  63  39 /  30  10  10  30
MORA............................  63  40  60  40 /  30  20  20  40
ESPANOLA........................  70  47  67  47 /  20  10  10  30
SANTA FE........................  66  44  61  43 /  30  20  20  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  70  45  65  42 /  20  20  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  70  49  65  48 /  20  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  72  51  67  50 /  20  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  74  47  69  46 /  10  10  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  73  50  68  50 /  10  10  10  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  72  45  69  41 /  20  10  10  30
RIO RANCHO......................  73  49  68  49 /  10  10  10  30
SOCORRO.........................  72  48  69  46 /  40  10  20  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  67  42  61  41 /  30  10  20  40
TIJERAS.........................  68  44  62  39 /  30  10  20  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  70  36  64  35 /  30  20  30  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  66  41  61  41 /  40  20  30  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  66  44  63  43 /  40  20  20  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  69  43  66  42 /  40  20  20  30
RUIDOSO.........................  64  39  63  38 /  60  20  30  40
CAPULIN.........................  67  45  65  46 /  10  10  20  20
RATON...........................  70  42  68  43 /  10  10  10  20
SPRINGER........................  70  43  67  44 /  20  10  10  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  66  40  61  40 /  20  20  20  30
CLAYTON.........................  71  49  72  51 /   5  10   5  10
ROY.............................  69  46  65  47 /   5  10  10  20
CONCHAS.........................  75  51  72  51 /  10  20  10  20
SANTA ROSA......................  72  49  68  48 /  20  20  10  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  77  50  74  52 /  10  20  10  20
CLOVIS..........................  72  49  70  51 /  20  20  10  30
PORTALES........................  71  49  70  51 /  30  20  10  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  71  50  68  52 /  20  20  10  30
ROSWELL.........................  70  52  67  52 /  50  20  30  30
PICACHO.........................  65  47  62  49 /  50  20  30  30
ELK.............................  60  43  58  43 /  60  20  30  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33














000
FXUS65 KABQ 200932
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 AM MDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM OVER FAR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA AND
NORTHWEST MEXICO WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE INGREDIENTS FOR SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF NEW MEXICO TODAY. AS THE
SYSTEMS WEAKENS TUESDAY...SHOWER AND STORM COVERAGE WILL DECREASE
AND BE PRIMARILY OVER AND NEAR MOUNTAINS. AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS
TO BUILD IN FROM ARIZONA WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR WILL WORK INTO TO
WESTERN NEW MEXICO...LIMITING SHOWERS AND STORMS TO AREAS EAST OF
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES
CENTERED OVER CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED ABOUT HALF WAY BETWEEN DOUGLAS
ARIZONA AND HERMOSILLO MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING. SPEED MAX/VORT
LOB ROTATING NWWD THROUGH SW NM EARLY THIS MORNING. ASSOCIATED
SCATTERED SHOWERS CONTINUE TO MOVE NWWD THROUGH SW SOCORRO COUNTY.
MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT CONVECTION WILL
SPREAD/DEVELOP OVER MOST MOUNTAIN RANGES ONCE AGAIN THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD BETWEEN 5 AND
10MPH.

SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TREND DOWNWARD
SOMEWHAT TUESDAY AS THE CLOSED UPPER LOW TO THE SW OPENS UP AND
BEGINS TO FILL/WEAKEN. STEERING WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWESTERLY AT AROUND 10 MPH. AS THE THIRD SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IN
THE RECENT SERIES OF WAVES APPROACHES WRN NM TUESDAY NIGHT...NAM AND
GFS KEEP CONVECTION GOING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM TUESDAY
NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT
THAT THIS THIRD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL SLIDE EAST THROUGH
WESTERN AND CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY MORNING. DRY AIR WILL BEGIN TO
WORK INTO WRN NM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...LIKELY LIMITING SHOWERS AND
STORMS FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TO THE TX LINE.

SUBTROPICAL UPPER HIGH TRANSLATES EAST-NE TOWARD NEW MEXICO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. A DRYING AND WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN THURSDAY...CONTINUING
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HIGH TEMPERATURES AT A FEW SPOTS COULD BEGIN
TO CHALLENGE RECORD VALUES FOR THE DATE BOTH FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.
00Z GFS DEVELOPS A WEAK TROPICAL SYSTEM NEAR/OVER THE BAJA
PENINSULA TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...THEN BRINGS UP THE REMNANT
MOISTURE OVER NM SATURDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...REMIANS DRY. BOTH
MODELS BRING A DRY COLD FRONT INTO THE PICTURE FROM THE NW LATE
NEXT WEEKEND.

33

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOMALOUSLY MOIST ATMOSPHERE OVER THE REGION TO PERSIST INTO
WEDNESDAY PRIOR TO A SIGNIFICANT DRYING/WARMING TREND.

ANOTHER ROUND OF DAYTIME HEATING TRIGGERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH DECENT WETTING POTENTIAL GIVEN ABOVE NORMAL
PWATS AND STORM MOTION OF 10 MPH OR LESS AS THE NEAR-STATIONARY
UPPER LOW REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE BOOTHEEL. VENT RATES LOOK TO BE
A MIXED-BAG TODAY AND MAY HAVE A HARD TIME IMPROVING MUCH IN
VALLEYS.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH...CURRENTLY PUSHING INTO THE WEST COAST...WILL
PROGRESS EAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND ABSORB THE UPPER LOW TO THE
SOUTH WHICH WILL OPEN UP OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY THEN TREND
DOWN ABRUPTLY AS DRY AIR FOLLOWS THE TROUGH PASSAGE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO EARLY THURSDAY. A WARMING/DRYING TREND TO KICK-OFF THURSDAY AND
PERSIST INTO THE WEEKEND AS AN UPPER HIGH BUILDS OVER ARIZONA THEN
SHIFTS EAST ACROSS OUR AREA. THE 00Z ECMWF SHOWS 592DAM AT 500MB BY
00Z SATURDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO...WHICH IS ANOMALOUSLY HIGH
FOR LATE OCTOBER 500MB HEIGHTS. VENT RATES WILL TAKE A HIT THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY WITH THE BUILDING UPPER HIGH...DESPITE TEMPERATURES
TRENDING TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL. THE UPPER HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST AS THE
NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH PUSHES INTO THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY AND
MOVES ACROSS THE ROCKIES ON SUNDAY...BRINGING INCREASING WINDS AND
MUCH IMPROVED VENTILATION BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THE 00Z GFS PICKS
UP SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE ON SATURDAY IN ADVANCE OF THE TROUGH AND
PULLS IT NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW MEXICO...BUT OUR FORECAST REMAINS DRY
FOR NOW FAVORING THE ECMWF SOLUTION.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LOW CENTERED VCNTY FAR SOUTH CENTRAL AZ WILL SLOWLY TRACK
TO THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HRS SPREADING PLENTIFUL MOISTURE
OVER NEW MEXICO. WELL DEFINED BAND OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS CIRCULATION OVER SW AND SOUTH CENTRAL NM TO PERSIST
WHILE IT SWINGS N TO NEWD. TSTMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO AROUND
35KT. MTS WILL BE OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN ISOLD TO WDLY SCT MVFR
TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN ASSOCIATION WITH CONVECTION AS WELL AS PATCHY
BR.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  72  48  67  45 /  10  10  20  30
DULCE...........................  68  38  62  38 /  20  10  20  50
CUBA............................  68  42  63  40 /  20  10  20  40
GALLUP..........................  67  42  64  38 /  20  10  20  30
EL MORRO........................  63  37  60  36 /  30  10  30  40
GRANTS..........................  68  40  64  38 /  20  10  20  40
QUEMADO.........................  62  44  60  42 /  30  10  30  30
GLENWOOD........................  69  38  69  34 /  50  10  10  20
CHAMA...........................  64  33  59  33 /  30  10  30  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  65  47  61  46 /  30  10  20  40
PECOS...........................  63  41  57  41 /  30  20  30  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  64  38  63  38 /  30  10  20  40
RED RIVER.......................  56  40  53  39 /  40  30  40  40
ANGEL FIRE......................  61  31  58  30 /  40  20  30  40
TAOS............................  66  38  63  39 /  30  10  10  30
MORA............................  63  40  60  40 /  30  20  20  40
ESPANOLA........................  70  47  67  47 /  20  10  10  30
SANTA FE........................  66  44  61  43 /  30  20  20  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  70  45  65  42 /  20  20  20  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  70  49  65  48 /  20  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  72  51  67  50 /  20  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  74  47  69  46 /  10  10  10  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  73  50  68  50 /  10  10  10  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  72  45  69  41 /  20  10  10  30
RIO RANCHO......................  73  49  68  49 /  10  10  10  30
SOCORRO.........................  72  48  69  46 /  40  10  20  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  67  42  61  41 /  30  10  20  40
TIJERAS.........................  68  44  62  39 /  30  10  20  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  70  36  64  35 /  30  20  30  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  66  41  61  41 /  40  20  30  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  66  44  63  43 /  40  20  20  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  69  43  66  42 /  40  20  20  30
RUIDOSO.........................  64  39  63  38 /  60  20  30  40
CAPULIN.........................  67  45  65  46 /  10  10  20  20
RATON...........................  70  42  68  43 /  10  10  10  20
SPRINGER........................  70  43  67  44 /  20  10  10  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  66  40  61  40 /  20  20  20  30
CLAYTON.........................  71  49  72  51 /   5  10   5  10
ROY.............................  69  46  65  47 /   5  10  10  20
CONCHAS.........................  75  51  72  51 /  10  20  10  20
SANTA ROSA......................  72  49  68  48 /  20  20  10  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  77  50  74  52 /  10  20  10  20
CLOVIS..........................  72  49  70  51 /  20  20  10  30
PORTALES........................  71  49  70  51 /  30  20  10  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  71  50  68  52 /  20  20  10  30
ROSWELL.........................  70  52  67  52 /  50  20  30  30
PICACHO.........................  65  47  62  49 /  50  20  30  30
ELK.............................  60  43  58  43 /  60  20  30  40

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33














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