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000
FXUS65 KABQ 241133 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
533 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Dry southwest flow aloft continues today. Dryline and associated
mvfr/ifr cigs continues to push westward into eastern Roosevelt
county this morning. Not anticipating that MVFR cigs will make it
as far west as KTCC and KROW. Southwest winds strengthen again
today, especially after 24/18Z with gusts to btwn 30-35kt possible.
Dryline t-storms across west TX are forecast to develop farther
west than the past several days, not allowing the dryline to surge
into eastern NM tonight/Wednesday morning.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...312 AM MDT TUE MAY 24 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
The drier and windier pattern will continue through much of the
week. Cant rule out some localized virga showers across the
northern mountains later today with some localized drier showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday across northwest and north central
areas. The height of the shower and thunderstorms...many of which
will be on the drier side...is expected Thursday into Thursday
night as a Pacific low crosses over the area. Residual drier
showers and thunderstorms would be found across the north on
Friday. During much of the week...breezy to locally windy
conditions will be found across the area favoring southern and
eastern areas. The stronger winds will coincide with lower
humidity and provide enhanced fire danger levels...especially
favoring the east. The dryline is expected to sharpen during the
weekend and provide some strong thunderstorm potential to the
eastern plains on Sunday with residual impacts possible early the
following week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Not a lot of changes made to the gridded forecast. Put some virga
like showers for later today across the Jemez and Sangre de
Cristos. Cumulus field was pretty enhanced yesterday and models
show that trend continuing today. Cant rule out some gustier winds
with the high based...virga activity. Models have trended a
littler drier in terms of precipitation output on Wednesday
although layer RH still suggests enhanced buildups and perhaps
some drier lightning strikes. Thus...kept the inherited forecast
intact. Thursday/Thursday night still looks to be the main day in
terms of shower and thunderstorm potential...favoring the NW half.
Decided to make the activity drier although some measurable is
expected especially favoring the higher peaks. Not a lot of QPF
will be found with this system despite the abundant mixing and
instability. Residual impacts are expected across the north on
Friday as the atmosphere destabilizes. This activity would once
again be on the drier side.

The better signature for wetting showers and thunderstorms would
be found with the dryline Sunday favoring the eastern third.
Suspect the dryline will push back to the west further than what
is projected right now but that is several days out. Residual
impacts with the surface dryline would probably be found across
the east into early next week. Models seem to be in consensus the
next several days although there is some slight differences.

Gusty winds...not so untypical for late May...will be found across
much of the area...especially southern and eastern areas through
much of the week. Not thinking wind advisory type readings.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A large upper level trough/low will remain across the PACNW and
California today and tonight. The southern portion of the trough
will swing eastward into Arizona late Wednesday and through northern
NM Thursday. Critical fire weather conditions are expected this
afternoon and early evening across eastern areas and likely again
Wednesday afternoon as southwest winds combine with a very dry and
unstable airmass.

As the upper trough moves through the state Thursday...isolated
thunderstorms are forecast across the northwest third of the state.
A few of these storms will likely end up dry as precipitable water
values remain near one third inch. High temperatures on Thursday,
however, drop to 10 to 15 degrees below seasonal averages central
and west and 5 to degrees east. Temperatures remain below average
Friday and with a relatively moist westerly flow aloft across
northern NM, models generate a few showers or thunderstorms across
the northern mountains Friday afternoon and evening.

Flow aloft quickly backs to southwesterly Saturday, ahead of the
next upper level trough deepening along the west coast. Breezy
southwest winds return for the weekend as a result. GFS and ECWMF,
however, have more mid-level moisture and clouds accompanying this
flow. Both models hint that the flow aloft will back enough to draw
the dryline into eastern NM early next week. ECMWF also introduces
backdoor cold fronts into the mix for the first week of June.

Ventilation rates remain very good to excellent areawide during the
next seven days.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 9 PM MDT this evening
for the following zones... NMZ103-104-108.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for the following zones... NMZ103-104-108.

&&

$$

50




000
FXUS65 KABQ 232332 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
532 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

Dry southwest flow aloft with sfc lee trough. Aoa sct120-140 with
occasional swly wind gusts to 35kt through 02z, winds subsiding
and clds dissipating thereafter. Not anticipating dryline to surge
too far westward aft 02z but short term models indicate it will be
near the ern nm/w tx border by 24/10z so look for some MVFR/IFR
cigs in this area. Sw winds strengthen again aft 24/18z with
gusts to around 35-40kt.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...320 PM MDT MON MAY 23 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Southwest winds will be breezy to windy each day along and east of
the central mountain chain through Thursday, and gusty but not
quite as strong farther west. Low humidities will accompany the
stronger winds in the east as well, with fire weather concerns
Tuesday and Wednesday. A weakening upper level low pressure
system will pass eastward along the northern border with Colorado
during the mid to latter half of the week. It will bring a
slight chance of showers and thunderstorms mainly to northern
areas, some of which will produce little or no rain. It will also cause
high temperatures to trend gradually below normal areawide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A deepening upper level trough over the western U.S. will steer a
persistent area of stronger winds aloft over NM from the southwest
through Thursday. Models show a decent shortwave pinching off a
closed low when it rounds the base of the upper trough over S CA,
and this is the feature that will bring a chance of virga, light showers
and light thunderstorms mainly to N NM during the mid to latter
half of the week. Precip chances will become most widespread
Thursday, when western areas will also have a chance for gusty
virga, light showers, and light thunderstorms. The best chance for
spotty wetting precip will be in the mountains near the CO border.

Another upper level trough will deepen over the western U.S. late
in the holiday weekend. This will draw the dryline westward into
New Mexico with a chance of wetter variety showers and storms
along and east of the central mountain chain, possibly as early as Saturday
night, and more likely on Sunday.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Several days of critical fire weather conditions appear to be
possible across the eastern plains starting Tuesday. The Fire
Weather Watch for Tuesday afternoon and evening has been upgraded to
a Red Flag Warning. Additionally, a Fire Weather Watch has been
issued for Wednesday. Critical fire weather conditions will be
possible again on Thursday, although near or just below normal
temperatures across the plains on Thursday may mitigate the threat.

Starting tonight, poor to fair relative humidity recoveries will be
the rule through at least Wednesday night, and may continue across
various areas south of I-40 through the remainder of the week.

On Tuesday, dry, southwest flow will continue as a broad upper level
trough persists across the western ConUS. Mid level dry slot appears
to be much stronger than today, thus, several more hours of single
digit relative humidities are expected across the eastern plains,
and even portions of the Rio Grande Valley. Winds will be a bit
stronger than today as well, with high haines across the board.
Thus, will upgrade the Fire Weather Watch with this package. 0-10cm
soil moisture values continue to drop, and as of this morning, only
a few spotty areas that had recent rains remain above 40%. Given
that these areas are few and far between, issuing a warning appears
prudent. Winds do not appear strong enough in the RGV, and temps are
at or just below normal, so they have not been included in the Red
Flag Warning.

Very little change is expected for Wednesday. Several hours of
single digit RH, strong southwest winds, and high haines remain on
tap. Critical fire weather conditions are possible once again across
the plains. Opted to not include Zone 107 due to temps just below
normal. Otherwise, main difference from Tuesday will be across the
northwest where some mid level moisture may create some virga and
gusty winds. A stray lightning strike is also possible.

The upper low over southern NV on Wed, responsible for the mid level
moisture across the NW, will shift eastward over Colorado and
northern NM and weaken on Thursday. Thursday should be the coolest
day of the week for most locales. Some light precipitation is
possible across the north, while strong winds and low humidities
will persist across the east central plains. Critical fire weather
conditions will be questionable given that temps may be just below
normal. Will need to watch temperature trends before deciding on a
watch.

Disturbed zonal flow will be on tap Friday with continued light
showers and thunderstorms across the north and drier conditions
across the south. Less wind is expected. Southwest flow aloft will
return over the weekend, and though the central and western areas
look to remain dry, Gulf moisture may work back into the eastern
plains. Dryline storms look to be possible once again by Sunday
afternoon.

Ventilation rates remain excellent areawide during the next seven
days.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 1 PM to 9 PM MDT Tuesday for the following
zones... NMZ103-104-108.

Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
evening for the following zones... NMZ103-104-108.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 231739 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1139 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions will prevail for the next 24 hours across much of
the area. One exception will be across the far east central plains
where MVFR/IFR cigs may creep in as the dryline retreats
overnight. Confidence is low so have not included any mention in
KROW TAF attm. Otherwise, breezy to windy conditions are expected
area wide this afternoon into the early evening. Gusts between 25
and 30kt are likely. Winds will subside after sunset, but will
return on Tuesday aftn.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...347 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Much of this week will be dominated by gusty afternoon winds and
dry conditions as a semi permanent Pacific low hangs out over the
western US. The Pacific low will draw closer to the state mid to
late week and initiate a few showers and thunderstorms across western
and northern areas. A secondary Pacific low should carve a trough
across the western tier of the US during the weekend. Southerly
flow should ensue and promote some dryline thunderstorms across
the eastern plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Not a lot of changes made to the gridded forecast. Did add a
little more POP to the Wed/Thur/Fri period. Models are trending a
littler further south with the Pacific low/trough. Think there is
credence to that trend based on what is going on across eastern
portions of the equatorial Pacific. This means more energy for
some shower and thunderstorm development. Made the activity
initially drier on Wednesday with localized strong wind gusts and
little in the way of precipitation. This could potentially be the
case for Thur as well. All of the models seem to be showing this
trend. Residual impacts of the departing low appear to reside
across the north on Friday.

The surface dryline has sloshed back into far eastern portions of
the forecast area this morning. Added some initial heavier cloud
cover across NE and SE areas but also some higher clouds found
across the south. Tried to trend sky cover accordingly.
Overall...quite a bit of sun expected through midweek.

Temperature trends look to be pretty straight forward with a
gradual cooling trend by the middle of the week and lasting
through Thursday. Gradual warming trend expected Friday and
lasting into the weekend.

Models continue to show a secondary Pacific low deepening across
the western US during the weekend. South to southwest flow ahead
of the low would draw Gulf of Mexico moisture northward and allow
the dryline to sharpen across the eastern plains. Localized
stronger showers and thunderstorms would most likely result. This
is very typical for this time of year so confidence is at least
moderate for this impact.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A broad upper level trough across much of the western CONUS will
continue to keep a dry southwest flow aloft and resulting lee
surface low/trough in place through Wednesday. Gulf moisture/dryline
surging westward into the far eastern plains this morning will be
short-lived as southwest winds develop and push the low level Gulf
moisture back into west TX by mid morning. Breezy to locally windy
condtions will develop once again all areas today. A near carbon
copy remains on track for Tuesday. Main difference between today and
Tuesday is soil and dead fine fuel moisture levels from recent rains
are expected to drop by Tuesday afternoon. Left fire weather watch
as is to let day shift have one more look at the 0-10cm soil
moisture data.

By Wedesday, the southern portion of the above mentioned trough
swings east into AZ. Mid and high level clouds increase across
northern NM Wednesday afternoon. GFS hints at the potential for mid
and high clouds across southeast NM as well. Held off on a fire
weather watch for Wednesday given the cloud cover potential but all
other critical fire weather thresholds will likely be met across the
eastern plains Wednesday afternoon. GFS and ECMWF agree that the
upper level trough/closed low will move eastward across northern NM
Thursday. Cooler temperatures along with higher RH values result,
especially across the northwest half of the state. GFS and ECMWF
bring wrap-around showers and thunderstorms across the northern
mountains Thursday afternoon and evening.

GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement for Friday into the weekend.
Both models bring a relatively moist zonal flow overhead Friday.
Showers and thunderstorms favor the northern and western mountains
Friday. The flow aloft backs ahead of another closed low over the
PACNW Saturday, possibly enough to draw the dryline far enough west
to get convection going across the eastern plains. Ventilation rates
remain excellent areawide during the next seven days.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
for the following zones... NMZ103-104-108.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 231121 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
521 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Broad upper level trough across the NW CONUS will keep southwest
flow aloft in place across NM today and tonight. Resulting lee
side sfc low will combine with daytime heating to create another
breezy to locally windy day across the region. Dryline related
low clouds will remain across eastern Curry and Roosevelt counties
until mid morning before getting forced ewd into west TX. Southwest
winds will gradually subside after sunset.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...347 AM MDT MON MAY 23 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Much of this week will be dominated by gusty afternoon winds and
dry conditions as a semi permanent Pacific low hangs out over the
western US. The Pacific low will draw closer to the state mid to
late week and initiate a few showers and thunderstorms across western
and northern areas. A secondary Pacific low should carve a trough
across the western tier of the US during the weekend. Southerly
flow should ensue and promote some dryline thunderstorms across
the eastern plains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Not a lot of changes made to the gridded forecast. Did add a
little more POP to the Wed/Thur/Fri period. Models are trending a
littler further south with the Pacific low/trough. Think there is
credence to that trend based on what is going on across eastern
portions of the equatorial Pacific. This means more energy for
some shower and thunderstorm development. Made the activity
initially drier on Wednesday with localized strong wind gusts and
little in the way of precipitation. This could potentially be the
case for Thur as well. All of the models seem to be showing this
trend. Residual impacts of the departing low appear to reside
across the north on Friday.

The surface dryline has sloshed back into far eastern portions of
the forecast area this morning. Added some initial heavier cloud
cover across NE and SE areas but also some higher clouds found
across the south. Tried to trend sky cover accordingly.
Overall...quite a bit of sun expected through midweek.

Temperature trends look to be pretty straight forward with a
gradual cooling trend by the middle of the week and lasting
through Thursday. Gradual warming trend expected Friday and
lasting into the weekend.

Models continue to show a secondary Pacific low deepening across
the western US during the weekend. South to southwest flow ahead
of the low would draw Gulf of Mexico moisture northward and allow
the dryline to sharpen across the eastern plains. Localized
stronger showers and thunderstorms would most likely result. This
is very typical for this time of year so confidence is at least
moderate for this impact.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A broad upper level trough across much of the western CONUS will
continue to keep a dry southwest flow aloft and resulting lee
surface low/trough in place through Wednesday. Gulf moisture/dryline
surging westward into the far eastern plains this morning will be
short-lived as southwest winds develop and push the low level Gulf
moisture back into west TX by mid morning. Breezy to locally windy
condtions will develop once again all areas today. A near carbon
copy remains on track for Tuesday. Main difference between today and
Tuesday is soil and dead fine fuel moisture levels from recent rains
are expected to drop by Tuesday afternoon. Left fire weather watch
as is to let day shift have one more look at the 0-10cm soil
moisture data.

By Wedesday, the southern portion of the above mentioned trough
swings east into AZ. Mid and high level clouds increase across
northern NM Wednesday afternoon. GFS hints at the potential for mid
and high clouds across southeast NM as well. Held off on a fire
weather watch for Wednesday given the cloud cover potential but all
other critical fire weather thresholds will likely be met across the
eastern plains Wednesday afternoon. GFS and ECMWF agree that the
upper level trough/closed low will move eastward across northern NM
Thursday. Cooler temperatures along with higher RH values result,
especially across the northwest half of the state. GFS and ECMWF
bring wrap-around showers and thunderstorms across the northern
mountains Thursday afternoon and evening.

GFS and ECMWF are in good agreement for Friday into the weekend.
Both models bring a relatively moist zonal flow overhead Friday.
Showers and thunderstorms favor the northern and western mountains
Friday. The flow aloft backs ahead of another closed low over the
PACNW Saturday, possibly enough to draw the dryline far enough west
to get convection going across the eastern plains. Ventilation rates
remain excellent areawide during the next seven days.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
for the following zones... NMZ103-104-108.

&&

$$

50




000
FXUS65 KABQ 230527 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1127 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
While the dryline had previously pushed back into Texas earlier
this afternoon, the thunderstorms in west Texas have hurled out an
easterly wind that could shove the dryline back into New Mexico
over the next few hours. Currently, batches of low clouds are
rapidly expanding over the panhandle of west Texas and racing
toward New Mexico. These are now expected to impact KCAO to KTCC
to KCVS/KCVN before 23/0900UTC and perhaps KROW before 23/1200UTC.
The higher resolution models are indicating some low cloud
development near KROW, but as for locations farther north, this
short term forecast is largely driven by current trends since the
models are handling the ongoing scenario so poorly. Into the
daytime Monday, the dryline will mix back east into Texas in the
late morning, leading to another dry, warm, and breezy to windy
day over New Mexico.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...250 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Southwest winds will be breezy to windy each day along and east of
the central mountain chain through Thursday, and gusty but not
quite as strong farther west. Low humidities will accompany the
stronger winds in the east as well, with daily rounds of fire
weather concerns. A weakening upper level low pressure system will
cross the four corners area from the southwest, before passing eastward
across southern Colorado during the mid to latter half of the
week. It will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
mainly to northern areas, and cause high temperatures to trend
gradually below normal areawide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A deepening upper level trough over the western U.S. will steer a
persistent area of stronger winds aloft over NM from the southwest
through Wednesday night. Some of the strongest winds should cross
Wednesday afternoon, when gusts may reach the 40 to 50 mph range
along and northeast of the S central mountains. Models show a
decent shortwave pinching off a closed low when it rounds the base
of the upper trough over S CA, and this is the feature that will
bring a chance of showers and storms mainly to N NM during the
mid to latter half of the week. The system won`t bring much
moisture with it, and NM will be on the dry side of the low, so
not much precip is expected. Spotty wetting precip chances should
favor the northern mountains near the CO border.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dewpoints have not yet dropped as far as yesterdays readings, likely
because the mid level dry slot is not as strong as yesterday.
Nonetheless, some sub-15 percent humidities have been noted across
mainly central areas. The dryline is pushing eastward into Texas as
of this writing, so chances for precipitation look to be rapidly
waning for the rest of the day.

The dry slot looks be a semi-permanent feature over NM through at
least Wednesday as a Pacific low remains over the NW ConUS and weak
shortwaves rotate around it but remain north of NM. The dry slot
will vary in strength from day-to-day, and these nuances will
determine how far below dewpoint guidance we may need to go in the
forecast. For example, Monday`s dry slot does not appear to be as
strong as Tuesday`s, thus hedged dewpoints closer to guidance
on Monday than on Tuesday.

Though temperatures will be a few degrees above normal on Monday
across the plains, haines indices will be 6, and winds will be
sufficient for critical criteria, will remain steadfast and not
issue a Fire Weather Watch for Monday afternoon. Will allow fuels to
dry out one more day after the rainfall last evening. Given that
humidities are still expected to drop into the single digits across
the east Monday afternoon, it should not take very long for
evapotranspiration to occur and dry out the fine fuels, even if some
green up has occurred.

Therefore, the Fire Weather Watch on Tuesday for the plains remains
intact. Humidities will drop into the single digits for several
hours and winds will be a bit stronger than on Monday overall.
Widespread 6 haines remain a good bet as well. Will have to monitor
trends for Zone 107. This area has been left out of the watch due to
at or below normal forecast temperatures, but may need to be
included if temps increase.

Very little changes from Tuesday to Wednesday, thus it is likely a
Fire Weather Watch will be needed for the plains Wed aftn and
evening. Strong winds, several hours of single digit humidities and
high haines will be on tap. Temperatures may be a degree or two
cooler than Tuesday overall however, and some modest mid level
moisture may work into northwest NM, perhaps allowing for a few
more clouds and virga.

A shortwave trough rounding the main Pacific low will dive into
Great Basin Tue/Wed and cross northern NM on Thursday. This will
bring a chance for some light precip across northern NM, but the dry
slot looks to remain over southern portions of the area.
Temperatures will cool around 5 degrees areawide from Wednesday`s
readings however. Thus, nearly all areas will be below normal. But
strong winds, low humidity and high haines will persist at least
across the east central plains.

Temperatures looks to largely remain below normal on Friday and
perhaps on Saturday as well. Models continue to show some small
chances of precip across the north, with dry conditions south of I-
40. Winds look to be lighter though.

Ventilation is expected to not be a concern over the next several
days due to high mixing heights and stronger transport winds.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
for the following zones... NMZ103-104-108.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 222325 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
525 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE

The dryline has currently pushed back into Texas with warm, dry,
and breezy to windy conditions prevailing over New Mexico. Just
some high-based fair weather cumulus clouds and a few thin high
cirrus clouds are all that is currently observed over the forecast
area. The cumulus and breezes will dissipate after sunset. The
dryline will sharpen back up and try to nudge back into far
eastern New Mexico overnight. Some low clouds may impact
KCVS/KCVN, but at this time do not anticipate the moisture moving
into KTCC or KROW. Once the dryline mixes back east into Texas
late Monday morning, another dry, warm, and breezy to windy day
will befall over New Mexico.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...250 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
Southwest winds will be breezy to windy each day along and east of
the central mountain chain through Thursday, and gusty but not
quite as strong farther west. Low humidities will accompany the
stronger winds in the east as well, with daily rounds of fire
weather concerns. A weakening upper level low pressure system will
cross the four corners area from the southwest, before passing eastward
across southern Colorado during the mid to latter half of the
week. It will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
mainly to northern areas, and cause high temperatures to trend
gradually below normal areawide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A deepening upper level trough over the western U.S. will steer a
persistent area of stronger winds aloft over NM from the southwest
through Wednesday night. Some of the strongest winds should cross
Wednesday afternoon, when gusts may reach the 40 to 50 mph range
along and northeast of the S central mountains. Models show a
decent shortwave pinching off a closed low when it rounds the base
of the upper trough over S CA, and this is the feature that will
bring a chance of showers and storms mainly to N NM during the
mid to latter half of the week. The system won`t bring much
moisture with it, and NM will be on the dry side of the low, so
not much precip is expected. Spotty wetting precip chances should
favor the northern mountains near the CO border.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dewpoints have not yet dropped as far as yesterdays readings, likely
because the mid level dry slot is not as strong as yesterday.
Nonetheless, some sub-15 percent humidities have been noted across
mainly central areas. The dryline is pushing eastward into Texas as
of this writing, so chances for precipitation look to be rapidly
waning for the rest of the day.

The dry slot looks be a semi-permanent feature over NM through at
least Wednesday as a Pacific low remains over the NW ConUS and weak
shortwaves rotate around it but remain north of NM. The dry slot
will vary in strength from day-to-day, and these nuances will
determine how far below dewpoint guidance we may need to go in the
forecast. For example, Monday`s dry slot does not appear to be as
strong as Tuesday`s, thus hedged dewpoints closer to guidance
on Monday than on Tuesday.

Though temperatures will be a few degrees above normal on Monday
across the plains, haines indices will be 6, and winds will be
sufficient for critical criteria, will remain steadfast and not
issue a Fire Weather Watch for Monday afternoon. Will allow fuels to
dry out one more day after the rainfall last evening. Given that
humidities are still expected to drop into the single digits across
the east Monday afternoon, it should not take very long for
evapotranspiration to occur and dry out the fine fuels, even if some
green up has occurred.

Therefore, the Fire Weather Watch on Tuesday for the plains remains
intact. Humidities will drop into the single digits for several
hours and winds will be a bit stronger than on Monday overall.
Widespread 6 haines remain a good bet as well. Will have to monitor
trends for Zone 107. This area has been left out of the watch due to
at or below normal forecast temperatures, but may need to be
included if temps increase.

Very little changes from Tuesday to Wednesday, thus it is likely a
Fire Weather Watch will be needed for the plains Wed aftn and
evening. Strong winds, several hours of single digit humidities and
high haines will be on tap. Temperatures may be a degree or two
cooler than Tuesday overall however, and some modest mid level
moisture may work into northwest NM, perhaps allowing for a few
more clouds and virga.

A shortwave trough rounding the main Pacific low will dive into
Great Basin Tue/Wed and cross northern NM on Thursday. This will
bring a chance for some light precip across northern NM, but the dry
slot looks to remain over southern portions of the area.
Temperatures will cool around 5 degrees areawide from Wednesday`s
readings however. Thus, nearly all areas will be below normal. But
strong winds, low humidity and high haines will persist at least
across the east central plains.

Temperatures looks to largely remain below normal on Friday and
perhaps on Saturday as well. Models continue to show some small
chances of precip across the north, with dry conditions south of I-
40. Winds look to be lighter though.

Ventilation is expected to not be a concern over the next several
days due to high mixing heights and stronger transport winds.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
for the following zones... NMZ103-104-108.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 222050
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
250 PM MDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Southwest winds will be breezy to windy each day along and east of
the central mountain chain through Thursday, and gusty but not
quite as strong farther west. Low humidities will accompany the
stronger winds in the east as well, with daily rounds of fire
weather concerns. A weakening upper level low pressure system will
cross the four corners area from the southwest, before passing eastward
across southern Colorado during the mid to latter half of the
week. It will bring a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
mainly to northern areas, and cause high temperatures to trend
gradually below normal areawide.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A deepening upper level trough over the western U.S. will steer a
persistent area of stronger winds aloft over NM from the southwest
through Wednesday night. Some of the strongest winds should cross
Wednesday afternoon, when gusts may reach the 40 to 50 mph range
along and northeast of the S central mountains. Models show a
decent shortwave pinching off a closed low when it rounds the base
of the upper trough over S CA, and this is the feature that will
bring a chance of showers and storms mainly to N NM during the
mid to latter half of the week. The system won`t bring much
moisture with it, and NM will be on the dry side of the low, so
not much precip is expected. Spotty wetting precip chances should
favor the northern mountains near the CO border.

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&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Dewpoints have not yet dropped as far as yesterdays readings, likely
because the mid level dry slot is not as strong as yesterday.
Nonetheless, some sub-15 percent humidities have been noted across
mainly central areas. The dryline is pushing eastward into Texas as
of this writing, so chances for precipitation look to be rapidly
waning for the rest of the day.

The dry slot looks be a semi-permanent feature over NM through at
least Wednesday as a Pacific low remains over the NW ConUS and weak
shortwaves rotate around it but remain north of NM. The dry slot
will vary in strength from day-to-day, and these nuances will
determine how far below dewpoint guidance we may need to go in the
forecast. For example, Monday`s dry slot does not appear to be as
strong as Tuesday`s, thus hedged dewpoints closer to guidance
on Monday than on Tuesday.

Though temperatures will be a few degrees above normal on Monday
across the plains, haines indices will be 6, and winds will be
sufficient for critical criteria, will remain steadfast and not
issue a Fire Weather Watch for Monday afternoon. Will allow fuels to
dry out one more day after the rainfall last evening. Given that
humidities are still expected to drop into the single digits across
the east Monday afternoon, it should not take very long for
evapotranspiration to occur and dry out the fine fuels, even if some
green up has occurred.

Therefore, the Fire Weather Watch on Tuesday for the plains remains
intact. Humidities will drop into the single digits for several
hours and winds will be a bit stronger than on Monday overall.
Widespread 6 haines remain a good bet as well. Will have to monitor
trends for Zone 107. This area has been left out of the watch due to
at or below normal forecast temperatures, but may need to be
included if temps increase.

Very little changes from Tuesday to Wednesday, thus it is likely a
Fire Weather Watch will be needed for the plains Wed aftn and
evening. Strong winds, several hours of single digit humidities and
high haines will be on tap. Temperatures may be a degree or two
cooler than Tuesday overall however, and some modest mid level
moisture may work into northwest NM, perhaps allowing for a few
more clouds and virga.

A shortwave trough rounding the main Pacific low will dive into
Great Basin Tue/Wed and cross northern NM on Thursday. This will
bring a chance for some light precip across northern NM, but the dry
slot looks to remain over southern portions of the area.
Temperatures will cool around 5 degrees areawide from Wednesday`s
readings however. Thus, nearly all areas will be below normal. But
strong winds, low humidity and high haines will persist at least
across the east central plains.

Temperatures looks to largely remain below normal on Friday and
perhaps on Saturday as well. Models continue to show some small
chances of precip across the north, with dry conditions south of I-
40. Winds look to be lighter though.

Ventilation is expected to not be a concern over the next several
days due to high mixing heights and stronger transport winds.

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&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions will prevail across central and western NM for the
next 24 hours. The dryline will retreat westward tonight, but not
as far as the last two nights. Currently think it will make it
just west of the TX border. This combined with some high clouds
moving over the area overnight should limit MVFR/IFR cigs from
redeveloping over KTCC and KROW overnight, but this will need to
be watched closely. Best chances for redevelopment look to be
southeast of a line from near Portales to just east of KROW.
Otherwise, the main hazard today will be increasing southwesterly
winds. Gust between 25 and 35kt are likely areawide, diminishing
after sunset.

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&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  77  43  75  42 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  71  31  69  28 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  74  39  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
Gallup..........................  74  38  72  37 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  70  33  70  31 /   0   0   0   0
Grants..........................  76  39  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
Quemado.........................  73  40  73  40 /   0   0   0   0
Glenwood........................  80  48  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Chama...........................  66  30  63  28 /   0   0   0   0
Los Alamos......................  75  45  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
Pecos...........................  75  43  72  42 /   0   0   0   0
Cerro/Questa....................  72  37  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
Red River.......................  60  32  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Angel Fire......................  67  30  65  29 /   0   0   0   0
Taos............................  74  38  71  36 /   0   0   0   0
Mora............................  73  41  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
Espanola........................  80  46  78  44 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe........................  75  45  72  44 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Fe Airport................  78  45  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Foothills...........  81  51  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Heights.............  83  53  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque Valley..............  84  52  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  84  51  82  50 /   0   0   0   0
Los Lunas.......................  85  51  84  50 /   0   0   0   0
Rio Rancho......................  83  50  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
Socorro.........................  87  54  86  52 /   0   0   0   0
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  76  47  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
Tijeras.........................  81  48  79  46 /   0   0   0   0
Moriarty/Estancia...............  77  41  76  38 /   0   0   0   0
Clines Corners..................  76  44  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Gran Quivira....................  77  49  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
Carrizozo.......................  82  54  82  52 /   0   0   0   0
Ruidoso.........................  76  49  76  48 /   0   0   0   0
Capulin.........................  77  44  75  43 /   5   5   5   5
Raton...........................  81  43  77  42 /   5   5   5   5
Springer........................  83  45  80  44 /   0   5   0   0
Las Vegas.......................  78  44  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Clayton.........................  85  51  84  50 /  10   5   5   0
Roy.............................  81  48  80  46 /   0   0   0   0
Conchas.........................  88  54  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Rosa......................  86  54  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Tucumcari.......................  92  56  91  55 /   5   5   5   0
Clovis..........................  88  54  89  53 /  20   5   5   0
Portales........................  88  56  90  55 /  20   5   5   0
Fort Sumner.....................  88  56  89  55 /   5   5   5   0
Roswell.........................  95  56  95  54 /   5   0   5   0
Picacho.........................  87  54  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
Elk.............................  81  52  81  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday evening
for the following zones... NMZ103-104-108.

&&

$$

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