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000
FXUS65 KABQ 241128
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
528 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LCL MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO BLDU ALG ERN NM AND TX BORDER SHOULD
DIMINISH BY 15Z. SFC LEE TROUGH TO DVLP AFT 18Z WITH WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINDS ALF AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 25/00Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...328 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A SEASONABLE DAY TODAY...WINDS WILL CRANK BACK UP FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WHERE GUSTS GREATER
THAN 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND LOW
VISIBILITY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
YESTERDAYS WIND MACHINE HAS EXITED THE AREA THIS MORNING...THOUGH AN
ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY SLIDING DOWN THE PLAINS.
THE FRONT DID PICK UP SOME DUST FROM SE CO WHICH DROPPED VSBYS DOWN
TO 2.5 MILES AT KCAO. OTHERWISE...DEWPOINTS WILL BE BRIEFLY RAISED
BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE THEY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
COOL TEMPS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS READINGS. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR ALL AREAS.

AFTER TODAY...THE WIND MACHINE WILL MAKE A SEMI-PERMANENT STAY
ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO
INCREASE FRIDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS CALI. BUT
FRIDAY WILL BE NOTHING COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND. AS THE SYSTEM NEARS
THE FOUR CORNERS ON SATURDAY...7H WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN
45-55KTS AS A VERY STRONG SFC LOW...984MB...DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL MIX TO
600 MB OR BETTER...WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS. THIS ALL SPELLS A VERY WINDY SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL HAVE SLID NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE...BUT WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE JUST AS
STRONG...IF NOT STRONGER. 7H WINDS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KTS ARE
DEPICTED BY THE GFS...THUS NO RELIEF FROM THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. HIGH WIND WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE POSTED DURING UPCOMING
SHIFTS...AND AREAS OF BLDU ARE ALMOST A CERTAINTY FOR THE WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...THERE WILL BE QUITE THE AIRMASS CHANGE
WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR EXAMPLE...7H TEMPS 00Z SAT RANGE FROM +8 TO
+12 DEG C...BUT BY 12Z SUN...7H TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO -4 TO -6 DEG
C. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY
AFTN...AND WILL QUICKLY RIP EASTWARD THRU THE PLAINS SATURDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL
AREAWIDE...AND THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE
SOME DECENT WETTING AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY...AND THOUGH WINDS
WONT BE AS STRONG AS THE WEEKEND...IT WILL STILL BE WINDY. BY
TUESDAY...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED BEHIND A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE MUDDLED LATE IN THE
WEEK...BUT IT APPEARS THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE HERE TO STAY
FOR THE WORK WEEK.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL CONDITIONS CENTRAL AND EAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
...VERY STRONG WINDS SATURDAY...

UPPER TROUGH HAS EXITED THE REGION ALTHOUGH A MORE VIGOROUS FRONT
CURRENTLY PLOWING THROUGH PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND TX
PANHANDLE KEEPING NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTY EARLY THIS MORNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...BUT
SOUTHWEST WINDS START TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE...SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE LAS VEGAS AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
AVERAGE BUT WITH AT LEAST GOOD VENTILATION OVERALL.

POOR RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT OVERALL BUT ESPECIALLY MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. THIS LEADS INTO
FRIDAY...WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF A DEEP AND COLD UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. WHILE WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE EXCEPTIONALLY
STRONG FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING MAY HELP INCREASE WIND SPEEDS
INTO CRITICAL TERRITORY. SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE
WIDESPREAD AND WILL PERSIST FOR 5 TO 10 HOURS THROUGH THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. FORECAST
HAINES OF 5 TO 6 AND HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE. THE
FAR WEST...ESPECIALLY CHUSKA MTS COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL KEEP THE CURRENT WATCH GOING
AT THIS TIME.

RH RECOVERIES REMAIN POOR FRIDAY NIGHT CENTRAL AND EAST...WHICH
LEADS INTO A VERY WINDY DAY SATURDAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WEST WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER INCREASING...THE CENTRAL AND EAST WILL
REMAIN UNDER NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH...MODERATE TO HIGH HAINES
AND SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES. IMPRESSIVELY STRONG WINDS ALOFT COULD
RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 65 MPH ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
MT CHAIN...ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHWEST MTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
BEGINNING MID MORNING SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS EASTWARD. THE
HIGH PEAKS UP NORTH MAY SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AS MUCH COLDER AIR
ALOFT MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY BUT HIGHS
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND RH VALUES BEGIN TO RECOVER
SLIGHTLY. SHOWER CHANCES SPREAD OVER THE NORTH SUNDAY BUT DIMINISH
THEREAFTER. ECMWF AND GFS IN BETTER AGREEMENT INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK DEVELOPING A HUMONGOUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NEW MEXICO ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY...RESULTING IN COOLER THAN AVERAGE HIGHS OVERALL AND
CONTINUED BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE EAST.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 240928
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
328 AM MDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER A SEASONABLE DAY TODAY...WINDS WILL CRANK BACK UP FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THANKS TO AN UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM. THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE WEEKEND WHERE GUSTS GREATER
THAN 60 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH AREAS OF BLOWING DUST AND LOW
VISIBILITY. PRECIPITATION CHANCES ALSO INCREASE SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY...AND BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
YESTERDAYS WIND MACHINE HAS EXITED THE AREA THIS MORNING...THOUGH AN
ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS QUICKLY SLIDING DOWN THE PLAINS.
THE FRONT DID PICK UP SOME DUST FROM SE CO WHICH DROPPED VSBYS DOWN
TO 2.5 MILES AT KCAO. OTHERWISE...DEWPOINTS WILL BE BRIEFLY RAISED
BEHIND THE FRONT BEFORE THEY MIX OUT THIS AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL
COOL TEMPS 5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAYS READINGS. HOWEVER...HIGH
TEMPS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR ALL AREAS.

AFTER TODAY...THE WIND MACHINE WILL MAKE A SEMI-PERMANENT STAY
ACROSS THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL START TO
INCREASE FRIDAY AS THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM DIVES ACROSS CALI. BUT
FRIDAY WILL BE NOTHING COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND. AS THE SYSTEM NEARS
THE FOUR CORNERS ON SATURDAY...7H WINDS WILL INCREASE BETWEEN
45-55KTS AS A VERY STRONG SFC LOW...984MB...DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN
COLORADO. BASED ON FORECAST SOUNDINGS...MUCH OF THE AREA WILL MIX TO
600 MB OR BETTER...WITH NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS FOR CENTRAL AND
EASTERN AREAS. THIS ALL SPELLS A VERY WINDY SATURDAY. BY
SUNDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL HAVE SLID NORTHEAST OF THE
STATE...BUT WINDS ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM ARE JUST AS
STRONG...IF NOT STRONGER. 7H WINDS BETWEEN 50 AND 60 KTS ARE
DEPICTED BY THE GFS...THUS NO RELIEF FROM THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY. HIGH WIND WATCHES MAY NEED TO BE POSTED DURING UPCOMING
SHIFTS...AND AREAS OF BLDU ARE ALMOST A CERTAINTY FOR THE WEEKEND.

IN ADDITION TO THE WINDS...THERE WILL BE QUITE THE AIRMASS CHANGE
WITH THIS SYSTEM. FOR EXAMPLE...7H TEMPS 00Z SAT RANGE FROM +8 TO
+12 DEG C...BUT BY 12Z SUN...7H TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO -4 TO -6 DEG
C. THE SFC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THRU WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY
AFTN...AND WILL QUICKLY RIP EASTWARD THRU THE PLAINS SATURDAY
EVENING. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL BE 5 TO 15 DEG BELOW NORMAL
AREAWIDE...AND THE WINDY CONDITIONS WILL MAKE IT FEEL EVEN COLDER.
THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME PRECIPITATION WITH THIS SYSTEM...MAINLY
SATURDAY AFTN/EVE ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST. SOME LOCATIONS MAY SEE
SOME DECENT WETTING AMOUNTS...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS.

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MONDAY...AND THOUGH WINDS
WONT BE AS STRONG AS THE WEEKEND...IT WILL STILL BE WINDY. BY
TUESDAY...THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE FOCUSED BEHIND A BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT. THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE MUDDLED LATE IN THE
WEEK...BUT IT APPEARS THE BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WILL BE HERE TO STAY
FOR THE WORK WEEK.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL CONDITIONS CENTRAL AND EAST FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...
...VERY STRONG WINDS SATURDAY...

UPPER TROUGH HAS EXITED THE REGION ALTHOUGH A MORE VIGOROUS FRONT
CURRENTLY PLOWING THROUGH PARTS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND TX
PANHANDLE KEEPING NORTHERLY WINDS GUSTY EARLY THIS MORNING.
NORTHERLY WINDS TO DIMINISH AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES...BUT
SOUTHWEST WINDS START TO INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. WITH A MUCH
DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE...SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAY BE POSSIBLE
IN THE LAS VEGAS AREA THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT EXPECTED TO BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR ANY HIGHLIGHTS. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE CLOSER TO
AVERAGE BUT WITH AT LEAST GOOD VENTILATION OVERALL.

POOR RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT OVERALL BUT ESPECIALLY MIDDLE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. THIS LEADS INTO
FRIDAY...WHEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN THE AFTERNOON IN
ADVANCE OF A DEEP AND COLD UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE
GREAT BASIN. WHILE WINDS ALOFT ARE NOT FORECAST TO BE EXCEPTIONALLY
STRONG FRIDAY AFTERNOON...DEEP MIXING MAY HELP INCREASE WIND SPEEDS
INTO CRITICAL TERRITORY. SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES ARE FORECAST TO BE
WIDESPREAD AND WILL PERSIST FOR 5 TO 10 HOURS THROUGH THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND OVER PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS. FORECAST
HAINES OF 5 TO 6 AND HIGHS ABOVE AVERAGE WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE. THE
FAR WEST...ESPECIALLY CHUSKA MTS COULD ALSO EXPERIENCE CRITICAL
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BUT WILL KEEP THE CURRENT WATCH GOING
AT THIS TIME.

RH RECOVERIES REMAIN POOR FRIDAY NIGHT CENTRAL AND EAST...WHICH
LEADS INTO A VERY WINDY DAY SATURDAY FOR THE FORECAST AREA. WHILE HIGH
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO FALL BELOW AVERAGE IN THE WEST WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER INCREASING...THE CENTRAL AND EAST WILL
REMAIN UNDER NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH...MODERATE TO HIGH HAINES
AND SINGLE DIGIT HUMIDITIES. IMPRESSIVELY STRONG WINDS ALOFT COULD
RESULT IN WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 65 MPH ALONG PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
MT CHAIN...ADJACENT HIGHLANDS AND SOUTHWEST MTS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND HOISTED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
BEGINNING MID MORNING SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE
MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS EASTWARD. THE
HIGH PEAKS UP NORTH MAY SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW AS MUCH COLDER AIR
ALOFT MOVES IN SATURDAY NIGHT.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONG SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY BUT HIGHS
WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE AND RH VALUES BEGIN TO RECOVER
SLIGHTLY. SHOWER CHANCES SPREAD OVER THE NORTH SUNDAY BUT DIMINISH
THEREAFTER. ECMWF AND GFS IN BETTER AGREEMENT INTO THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK DEVELOPING A HUMONGOUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN US...WITH NEW MEXICO ON THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY...RESULTING IN COOLER THAN AVERAGE HIGHS OVERALL AND
CONTINUED BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS IN THE EAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODERATE AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AVIATION THROUGH
VERY EARLY MORNING. N-NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BEHIND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH BY 10 AM.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY MID-AFTERNOON.

BENNETT

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  68  34  76  44 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  64  26  70  33 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  66  31  72  35 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  69  29  72  38 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  64  30  67  31 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  69  31  74  35 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  68  36  70  39 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  76  41  78  35 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  60  28  64  31 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  65  39  70  45 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  61  38  69  41 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  65  31  70  35 /   0   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  54  32  60  34 /   0   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  58  29  64  32 /   0   0   0   0
TAOS............................  64  29  71  34 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  64  35  71  40 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  70  37  77  40 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  64  39  70  42 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  69  36  76  40 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  71  46  77  50 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  72  48  79  51 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  73  45  81  46 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  73  46  80  47 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  75  43  82  45 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  74  45  81  48 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  77  48  83  51 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  67  41  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  68  42  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  67  34  75  38 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  65  39  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  68  43  74  46 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  72  48  77  49 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  67  48  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  64  37  72  45 /   5   0   0   0
RATON...........................  70  34  77  40 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  70  36  77  42 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  66  38  73  42 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  69  42  82  51 /   5   0   0   0
ROY.............................  67  41  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  75  46  83  53 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  75  45  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  76  47  88  54 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  73  45  85  50 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  75  45  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  75  48  85  55 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  79  48  90  54 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  76  48  82  53 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  71  48  75  50 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.

&&

$$

34








000
FXUS65 KABQ 240546
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1146 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODERATE AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AVIATION THROUGH
VERY EARLY MORNING. N-NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT BEHIND A SURFACE
COLD FRONT MOVING INTO TEXAS THIS MORNING WILL DIMINISH BY 10 AM.
WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST BY MID-AFTERNOON.

BENNETT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...308 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
MIDWEEK GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF INTO LATE WEEK BREEZES...IN TIME FOR
A LARGE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TO DRIFT ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVER THE
WEEKEND. A STORMY AND BLUSTERY SATURDAY WILL BRING A MUCH COOLER
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WORKING SLOWLY BACK TOWARD NORMAL
DURING A BREEZY START TO THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NEW MEXICO BOOT HEEL TO
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES HEADING TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH COMPLEX INTERPLAY OF FRONTS AND BOUNDARIES
PLAYING OUT AT THE SURFACE. APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT LYING
FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO...TO THE FOUR CORNERS...TO THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY IN WESTERN ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SWEEP. DRY LINE SETTING UP FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO
THE BIG BEND COUNTRY WILL HELP FOCUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF THE STATE...WITH WEAK INVERTED TROUGH POKING NORTHWARD FROM
NORTHEASTERN SONORA INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. LOTS OF
BOUNDARIES...BUT A DEARTH OF MOISTURE...WILL KEEP SHOWER COVERAGE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR NOW WITH AN EASTWARD SMEAR
IN THE CARDS TONIGHT.

MODELS...IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COMPLEX PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DIFFERENCES IN DOWNSTREAM FEATURE PLACEMENT...AND UPSTREAM
EVOLUTION COMPLICATING THE HARMONY FOR LATE IN NEXT WORK WEEK ON
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. HAPPY START MOVES HIGH AMPLITUDE
TROUGH INTO THE HEART OF TEXAS BY LATE TONIGHT...AS NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH SLAMS INTO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SWING EAST INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY AND
ROAR ACROSS THE HEART OF THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A
ROARING ENTRANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LINGERING AND SLOW
DEPARTURE...AS THE SYSTEM CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
LATE SUNDAY WILL MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY TO CENTRAL KANSAS ON
MONDAY...AND ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS ON
TUESDAY. NEW MEXICO WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
STRONG AND SPRAWLING CIRCULATION...AND SUBJECT TO SPOKES OF
SOUTHBOUND SHORTWAVES IN CIRCULATION ABOUT THE CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE AND TOUCHING OFF SHOWERS...SHIFTING WINDS...AND
TEMPERATURE PERTURBATIONS WITH EACH PASS. CIRCULATION CENTER WILL
DRIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THE CIRCULATION JUST STARTING TO PULL OUT OF NEW MEXICO.
MODEL DIFFERENCES EMERGING FROM THURSDAY DAYTIME ONWARD...AS
EUROPEAN ECMWF SOLUTION CAMPS THE CLOSED LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...AND EXTENDS BROAD TROUGH SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. DOMESTIC GFS...IN
CONTRAST...POPS UP A RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO HUDSONS BAY IN CANADA WITH NEW
MEXICO REMAINING IN A GENTLE NORTHWEST FLOW.

FOR THURSDAY...TROUGH MOVING THROUGH BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND SETTING UP OVER THE HEART OF NORTH TEXAS BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY. BREEZY WINDS WILL SET UP OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A DRY AND SUNNY DAY OTHERWISE..WITH A FEW CLOUDS
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF LATE APRIL NORMAL VALUES.

FOR FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT BACKING TO SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST. DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU...AS SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH INBOUND PACIFIC COAST SETS UP OVER CENTRAL NEVADA.
A SOLID WARM UP WILL PUSH EASTERN TEMPERATURES 6 TO 12 DEGREES
ABOVE LATE APRIL NORMALS....WHILE THE WEST WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A BROAD AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH LOCAL AREAS OF BLOWING DUST OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. OTHERWISE...A DRY AND SUNNY DAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEEKEND ADVENTURE TO COME.

FOR SATURDAY...PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA AND
ENCROACH ON WESTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY MORNING...AS RAPIDLY
DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL STRENGTHEN
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. COPIOUS MOMENTUM OVERHEAD AND STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL SET UP A VERY WINDY
DAY...WITH SPEEDS ALREADY AT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND FLIRTING WITH
WARNING LEVELS IN SPOTS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. MORNING
SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH AND WEST WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...WITH COOLER AIR BRINGING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN AND EXPANDING SNOW COVERAGE FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN
SUMMITS TO SOME OF THE HIGHER SLOPES. AWAY FROM
PRECIPITATION...BLOWING DUST WILL IMPACT VISIBILITIES AND POSE
SOME LOCALIZED TRAVEL DANGERS. WITH COLD AIR INVADING FROM THE
WEST...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 3 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW LATE APRIL
NORMALS OVER THE WEST...BUT REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THE EASTERN PLAINS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PROTRACTED PERIOD OF SHOWER
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...AS CLOSED LOW OF
DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM TAKES SWEET TIME REACHING THE MID
MISSISSIPPI...LOWER OHIO...AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEYS BY TUESDAY.
CIRCULATION ABOUT CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP PUMPING SOUTHBOUND ENERGY
AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SPOKES AROUND THE CYCLONIC
WHEEL...MAINTAINING DYNAMIC CONTRIBUTION FOR NORTHERN SHOWERS.
WEEKEND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH WINDS
VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE EASTBOUND COLD FRONT...WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF NORTHWEST WINDINESS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. WINDS
VEERING NORTHERLY AND EASING SOMEWHAT OVER NEW MEXICO...AS FOCUS
OF SPEEDIEST WINDS SHIFTS EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH MODERATING GENTLY INTO TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES
5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL END UP 3 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL HEADING INTO MIDWEEK.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL CONDITIONS RETURNING CENTRAL AND EAST FRIDAY...

MAINLY DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES MAINLY POOR TO FAIR...WITH LOCAL GOOD VALUES
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO WEST TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY...RH RECOVERIES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RATHER PITIFUL FOR
THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WITH SOME MAX RH
VALUES NOT EVEN REACHING 25 PERCENT. THE MAJORITY OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING THE EASTERN PLAINS...MAY SEE MAX HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.

KEPT FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS IS FOR THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS BORDER FRIDAY. MODELS
BACKING OFF ON TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CREATING SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DURATION
OF THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGH HAINES WITH PERHAPS
MORE MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS WINDS A POSSIBILITY BUT WITH PLENTY OF
TIME...WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS SEE IF THE MODELS SETTLE ON A
SOLUTION. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY GUSTY ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING INTO A VERY WINDY DAY SATURDAY...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 60 MPH OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF CENTRAL
AREAS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
CONDITIONS STILL ON TRACK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC APRIL VERY STRONG TO PERHAPS HIGH WIND EVENT
AREA WIDE. ECMWF MODEL...HOWEVER STARTING TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH
THE CLOSED LOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RESULT WOULD TAKE
THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE
FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY NORTH.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.

&&

$$

GUYER






000
FXUS65 KABQ 232355
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
555 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG AND GUSTY
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TO
AVIATION THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT. N-NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT AND
S-SW WINDS AHEAD OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT TRAVERSING THE STATE WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER 10 PM. SLIGHT CHANCE OF ISOLD HIGH BASED
-SHRA/-TSRA ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NM
LIKELY PRODUCING VIRGA AS WELL AS GUSTY AND ERRATIC SFC WINDS.

BENNETT

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...308 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
MIDWEEK GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF INTO LATE WEEK BREEZES...IN TIME FOR
A LARGE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TO DRIFT ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVER THE
WEEKEND. A STORMY AND BLUSTERY SATURDAY WILL BRING A MUCH COOLER
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WORKING SLOWLY BACK TOWARD NORMAL
DURING A BREEZY START TO THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NEW MEXICO BOOT HEEL TO
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES HEADING TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH COMPLEX INTERPLAY OF FRONTS AND BOUNDARIES
PLAYING OUT AT THE SURFACE. APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT LYING
FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO...TO THE FOUR CORNERS...TO THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY IN WESTERN ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SWEEP. DRY LINE SETTING UP FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO
THE BIG BEND COUNTRY WILL HELP FOCUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF THE STATE...WITH WEAK INVERTED TROUGH POKING NORTHWARD FROM
NORTHEASTERN SONORA INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. LOTS OF
BOUNDARIES...BUT A DEARTH OF MOISTURE...WILL KEEP SHOWER COVERAGE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR NOW WITH AN EASTWARD SMEAR
IN THE CARDS TONIGHT.

MODELS...IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COMPLEX PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DIFFERENCES IN DOWNSTREAM FEATURE PLACEMENT...AND UPSTREAM
EVOLUTION COMPLICATING THE HARMONY FOR LATE IN NEXT WORK WEEK ON
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. HAPPY START MOVES HIGH AMPLITUDE
TROUGH INTO THE HEART OF TEXAS BY LATE TONIGHT...AS NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH SLAMS INTO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SWING EAST INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY AND
ROAR ACROSS THE HEART OF THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A
ROARING ENTRANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LINGERING AND SLOW
DEPARTURE...AS THE SYSTEM CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
LATE SUNDAY WILL MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY TO CENTRAL KANSAS ON
MONDAY...AND ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS ON
TUESDAY. NEW MEXICO WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
STRONG AND SPRAWLING CIRCULATION...AND SUBJECT TO SPOKES OF
SOUTHBOUND SHORTWAVES IN CIRCULATION ABOUT THE CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE AND TOUCHING OFF SHOWERS...SHIFTING WINDS...AND
TEMPERATURE PERTURBATIONS WITH EACH PASS. CIRCULATION CENTER WILL
DRIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THE CIRCULATION JUST STARTING TO PULL OUT OF NEW MEXICO.
MODEL DIFFERENCES EMERGING FROM THURSDAY DAYTIME ONWARD...AS
EUROPEAN ECMWF SOLUTION CAMPS THE CLOSED LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...AND EXTENDS BROAD TROUGH SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. DOMESTIC GFS...IN
CONTRAST...POPS UP A RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO HUDSONS BAY IN CANADA WITH NEW
MEXICO REMAINING IN A GENTLE NORTHWEST FLOW.

FOR THURSDAY...TROUGH MOVING THROUGH BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND SETTING UP OVER THE HEART OF NORTH TEXAS BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY. BREEZY WINDS WILL SET UP OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A DRY AND SUNNY DAY OTHERWISE..WITH A FEW CLOUDS
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF LATE APRIL NORMAL VALUES.

FOR FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT BACKING TO SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST. DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU...AS SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH INBOUND PACIFIC COAST SETS UP OVER CENTRAL NEVADA.
A SOLID WARM UP WILL PUSH EASTERN TEMPERATURES 6 TO 12 DEGREES
ABOVE LATE APRIL NORMALS....WHILE THE WEST WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A BROAD AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH LOCAL AREAS OF BLOWING DUST OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. OTHERWISE...A DRY AND SUNNY DAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEEKEND ADVENTURE TO COME.

FOR SATURDAY...PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA AND
ENCROACH ON WESTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY MORNING...AS RAPIDLY
DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL STRENGTHEN
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. COPIOUS MOMENTUM OVERHEAD AND STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL SET UP A VERY WINDY
DAY...WITH SPEEDS ALREADY AT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND FLIRTING WITH
WARNING LEVELS IN SPOTS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. MORNING
SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH AND WEST WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...WITH COOLER AIR BRINGING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN AND EXPANDING SNOW COVERAGE FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN
SUMMITS TO SOME OF THE HIGHER SLOPES. AWAY FROM
PRECIPITATION...BLOWING DUST WILL IMPACT VISIBILITIES AND POSE
SOME LOCALIZED TRAVEL DANGERS. WITH COLD AIR INVADING FROM THE
WEST...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 3 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW LATE APRIL
NORMALS OVER THE WEST...BUT REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THE EASTERN PLAINS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PROTRACTED PERIOD OF SHOWER
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...AS CLOSED LOW OF
DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM TAKES SWEET TIME REACHING THE MID
MISSISSIPPI...LOWER OHIO...AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEYS BY TUESDAY.
CIRCULATION ABOUT CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP PUMPING SOUTHBOUND ENERGY
AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SPOKES AROUND THE CYCLONIC
WHEEL...MAINTAINING DYNAMIC CONTRIBUTION FOR NORTHERN SHOWERS.
WEEKEND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH WINDS
VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE EASTBOUND COLD FRONT...WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF NORTHWEST WINDINESS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. WINDS
VEERING NORTHERLY AND EASING SOMEWHAT OVER NEW MEXICO...AS FOCUS
OF SPEEDIEST WINDS SHIFTS EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH MODERATING GENTLY INTO TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES
5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL END UP 3 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL HEADING INTO MIDWEEK.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL CONDITIONS RETURNING CENTRAL AND EAST FRIDAY...

MAINLY DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES MAINLY POOR TO FAIR...WITH LOCAL GOOD VALUES
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO WEST TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY...RH RECOVERIES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RATHER PITIFUL FOR
THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WITH SOME MAX RH
VALUES NOT EVEN REACHING 25 PERCENT. THE MAJORITY OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING THE EASTERN PLAINS...MAY SEE MAX HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.

KEPT FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS IS FOR THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS BORDER FRIDAY. MODELS
BACKING OFF ON TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CREATING SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DURATION
OF THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGH HAINES WITH PERHAPS
MORE MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS WINDS A POSSIBILITY BUT WITH PLENTY OF
TIME...WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS SEE IF THE MODELS SETTLE ON A
SOLUTION. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY GUSTY ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING INTO A VERY WINDY DAY SATURDAY...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 60 MPH OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF CENTRAL
AREAS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
CONDITIONS STILL ON TRACK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC APRIL VERY STRONG TO PERHAPS HIGH WIND EVENT
AREA WIDE. ECMWF MODEL...HOWEVER STARTING TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH
THE CLOSED LOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RESULT WOULD TAKE
THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE
FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY NORTH.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103>109.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.

&&

$$

GUYER






000
FXUS65 KABQ 232108
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
308 PM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MIDWEEK GUSTS WILL TAPER OFF INTO LATE WEEK BREEZES...IN TIME FOR
A LARGE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM TO DRIFT ACROSS NEW MEXICO OVER THE
WEEKEND. A STORMY AND BLUSTERY SATURDAY WILL BRING A MUCH COOLER
SUNDAY...WITH TEMPERATURES WORKING SLOWLY BACK TOWARD NORMAL
DURING A BREEZY START TO THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...HIGH AMPLITUDE TROUGH FROM THE NEW MEXICO BOOT HEEL TO
THE CANADIAN ROCKIES HEADING TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH COMPLEX INTERPLAY OF FRONTS AND BOUNDARIES
PLAYING OUT AT THE SURFACE. APPROACHING PACIFIC COLD FRONT LYING
FROM NORTHEAST COLORADO...TO THE FOUR CORNERS...TO THE LOWER COLORADO
RIVER VALLEY IN WESTERN ARIZONA WILL CONTINUE ITS SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN SWEEP. DRY LINE SETTING UP FROM NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TO
THE BIG BEND COUNTRY WILL HELP FOCUS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS EAST
OF THE STATE...WITH WEAK INVERTED TROUGH POKING NORTHWARD FROM
NORTHEASTERN SONORA INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEW MEXICO. LOTS OF
BOUNDARIES...BUT A DEARTH OF MOISTURE...WILL KEEP SHOWER COVERAGE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS FOR NOW WITH AN EASTWARD SMEAR
IN THE CARDS TONIGHT.

MODELS...IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON A COMPLEX PATTERN THROUGH
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THURSDAY MORNING NEXT WEEK...WITH
DIFFERENCES IN DOWNSTREAM FEATURE PLACEMENT...AND UPSTREAM
EVOLUTION COMPLICATING THE HARMONY FOR LATE IN NEXT WORK WEEK ON
INTO THE FOLLOWING WEEKEND. HAPPY START MOVES HIGH AMPLITUDE
TROUGH INTO THE HEART OF TEXAS BY LATE TONIGHT...AS NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH SLAMS INTO THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST LATE FRIDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL SWING EAST INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY AND
ROAR ACROSS THE HEART OF THE STATE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. A
ROARING ENTRANCE WILL BE FOLLOWED BY A LINGERING AND SLOW
DEPARTURE...AS THE SYSTEM CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
LATE SUNDAY WILL MOVE ONLY SLIGHTLY TO CENTRAL KANSAS ON
MONDAY...AND ACROSS THE LOWER MISSOURI AND LOWER OHIO VALLEYS ON
TUESDAY. NEW MEXICO WILL REMAIN ON THE WESTERN FRINGES OF THIS
STRONG AND SPRAWLING CIRCULATION...AND SUBJECT TO SPOKES OF
SOUTHBOUND SHORTWAVES IN CIRCULATION ABOUT THE CLOSED LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE AND TOUCHING OFF SHOWERS...SHIFTING WINDS...AND
TEMPERATURE PERTURBATIONS WITH EACH PASS. CIRCULATION CENTER WILL
DRIFT INTO THE GREAT LAKES BY THURSDAY MORNING...WITH THE WESTWARD
EXTENT OF THE CIRCULATION JUST STARTING TO PULL OUT OF NEW MEXICO.
MODEL DIFFERENCES EMERGING FROM THURSDAY DAYTIME ONWARD...AS
EUROPEAN ECMWF SOLUTION CAMPS THE CLOSED LOW OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN...AND EXTENDS BROAD TROUGH SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. DOMESTIC GFS...IN
CONTRAST...POPS UP A RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ROCKIES INTO HUDSONS BAY IN CANADA WITH NEW
MEXICO REMAINING IN A GENTLE NORTHWEST FLOW.

FOR THURSDAY...TROUGH MOVING THROUGH BY EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING...AND SETTING UP OVER THE HEART OF NORTH TEXAS BY MIDDAY
THURSDAY. BREEZY WINDS WILL SET UP OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THROUGH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. A DRY AND SUNNY DAY OTHERWISE..WITH A FEW CLOUDS
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A FEW
DEGREES EITHER SIDE OF LATE APRIL NORMAL VALUES.

FOR FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT BACKING TO SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING OVER THE CALIFORNIA COAST. DOME OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL SET UP OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU...AS SURFACE LOW
ASSOCIATED WITH INBOUND PACIFIC COAST SETS UP OVER CENTRAL NEVADA.
A SOLID WARM UP WILL PUSH EASTERN TEMPERATURES 6 TO 12 DEGREES
ABOVE LATE APRIL NORMALS....WHILE THE WEST WILL RUN A FEW DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL. A BROAD AND BREEZY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN
THROUGH THE DAY...WITH LOCAL AREAS OF BLOWING DUST OVER THE
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN PLAINS...AND FROM THE ARIZONA LINE TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. OTHERWISE...A DRY AND SUNNY DAY IN ADVANCE OF
THE WEEKEND ADVENTURE TO COME.

FOR SATURDAY...PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE ACROSS ARIZONA AND
ENCROACH ON WESTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY MORNING...AS RAPIDLY
DEEPENING STORM SYSTEM OVER EASTERN COLORADO WILL STRENGTHEN
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS. COPIOUS MOMENTUM OVERHEAD AND STRONG
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AT THE SURFACE WILL SET UP A VERY WINDY
DAY...WITH SPEEDS ALREADY AT ADVISORY LEVELS...AND FLIRTING WITH
WARNING LEVELS IN SPOTS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. MORNING
SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTH AND WEST WILL EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...WITH COOLER AIR BRINGING SNOW
LEVELS DOWN AND EXPANDING SNOW COVERAGE FROM THE NORTHERN MOUNTAIN
SUMMITS TO SOME OF THE HIGHER SLOPES. AWAY FROM
PRECIPITATION...BLOWING DUST WILL IMPACT VISIBILITIES AND POSE
SOME LOCALIZED TRAVEL DANGERS. WITH COLD AIR INVADING FROM THE
WEST...TEMPERATURES WILL FALL 3 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW LATE APRIL
NORMALS OVER THE WEST...BUT REMAIN 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON
THE EASTERN PLAINS.

OUTLOOK...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...PROTRACTED PERIOD OF SHOWER
COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE...AS CLOSED LOW OF
DEPARTING WEATHER SYSTEM TAKES SWEET TIME REACHING THE MID
MISSISSIPPI...LOWER OHIO...AND LOWER MISSOURI VALLEYS BY TUESDAY.
CIRCULATION ABOUT CLOSED LOW WILL KEEP PUMPING SOUTHBOUND ENERGY
AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE SPOKES AROUND THE CYCLONIC
WHEEL...MAINTAINING DYNAMIC CONTRIBUTION FOR NORTHERN SHOWERS.
WEEKEND WINDY CONDITIONS CONTINUING THROUGH SUNDAY...WITH WINDS
VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE EASTBOUND COLD FRONT...WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF NORTHWEST WINDINESS ON TAP FOR MONDAY. WINDS
VEERING NORTHERLY AND EASING SOMEWHAT OVER NEW MEXICO...AS FOCUS
OF SPEEDIEST WINDS SHIFTS EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA
PANHANDLES. ALTHOUGH MODERATING GENTLY INTO TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES
5 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL END UP 3 TO 8 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL HEADING INTO MIDWEEK.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...CRITICAL CONDITIONS RETURNING CENTRAL AND EAST FRIDAY...

MAINLY DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST THROUGH
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM THIS EVENING. SURFACE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO
NORTHWEST EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN NORTHERLY OVERNIGHT. DRY AIR MASS
BEHIND THE FRONT ALONG WITH THE NORTHERLY BREEZES WILL KEEP
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES MAINLY POOR TO FAIR...WITH LOCAL GOOD VALUES
OVER THE FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THESE HIGHER DEW POINTS WILL SHIFT
EAST INTO WEST TEXAS DURING THE AFTERNOON.

WITH A VERY DRY AIR MASS CONTINUING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION
THURSDAY...RH RECOVERIES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE RATHER PITIFUL FOR
THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WITH SOME MAX RH
VALUES NOT EVEN REACHING 25 PERCENT. THE MAJORITY OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING THE EASTERN PLAINS...MAY SEE MAX HUMIDITY
VALUES IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE.

KEPT FIRE WEATHER WATCH AS IS FOR THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND
NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO THE TEXAS BORDER FRIDAY. MODELS
BACKING OFF ON TIMING OF THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT UNTIL LATE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING CREATING SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE DURATION
OF THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGH HAINES WITH PERHAPS
MORE MARGINAL WIND SPEEDS WINDS A POSSIBILITY BUT WITH PLENTY OF
TIME...WILL LET FUTURE SHIFTS SEE IF THE MODELS SETTLE ON A
SOLUTION. WINDS WILL LIKELY STAY GUSTY ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING INTO A VERY WINDY DAY SATURDAY...WITH
POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 60 MPH OVER THE HIGHER ELEVATION OF CENTRAL
AREAS...PRIMARILY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
CONDITIONS STILL ON TRACK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH WHAT
LOOKS LIKE A CLASSIC APRIL VERY STRONG TO PERHAPS HIGH WIND EVENT
AREA WIDE. ECMWF MODEL...HOWEVER STARTING TO TREND FARTHER SOUTH WITH
THE CLOSED LOW SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS RESULT WOULD TAKE
THE STRONGEST WIND SPEEDS FARTHER SOUTH ALONG WITH A BETTER CHANCE
FOR WETTING PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY NORTH.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. DRY SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW TO SE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. ISOLD HIGH BASED -SHRA/-TSRA
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NM
LIKELY PRODUCING VIRGA AND ERRATIC SFC WINDS. N-NW WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE LATE EVENING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  32  69  37  76 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  23  64  27  69 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  28  66  31  71 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  26  68  34  72 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  28  65  30  67 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  27  69  33  72 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  33  68  36  71 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  38  75  38  77 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  21  59  25  63 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  34  66  40  71 /   5   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  34  63  38  69 /   5   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  25  64  29  69 /   5   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  23  54  25  57 /   5   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  22  59  24  64 /   5   0   0   0
TAOS............................  25  64  30  70 /   5   0   0   0
MORA............................  31  64  36  70 /   5   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  33  71  36  76 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  35  65  40  71 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  34  68  37  74 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  42  71  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  45  73  50  79 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  40  75  44  81 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  41  75  46  81 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  40  76  43  82 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  42  74  47  80 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  47  77  48  83 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  35  67  41  73 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  39  69  43  75 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  35  69  37  76 /   5   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  35  66  41  72 /   5   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  42  69  44  74 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  44  74  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  40  67  40  72 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  31  64  37  73 /  10   5   0   0
RATON...........................  33  69  35  76 /  10   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  36  70  38  77 /   5   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  35  66  40  73 /   5   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  43  71  46  81 /  10   5   0   0
ROY.............................  39  68  44  75 /   5   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  45  75  48  83 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  44  75  47  82 /   5   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  45  76  49  87 /   5   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  45  74  47  85 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  47  76  48  84 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  47  76  49  85 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  51  80  51  90 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  49  76  50  82 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  46  70  47  76 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103>109.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.

&&

$$

SHY









000
FXUS65 KABQ 231750 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1150 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. STRONG AND GUSTY
SOUTHWEST SFC WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN IMPACT TO AVIATION UNTIL SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET. DRY SFC COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE FROM NW TO SE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. ISOLD HIGH BASED -SHRA/-TSRA
POSSIBLE ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER NORTH-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL NM
LIKELY PRODUCING VIRGA AND ERRATIC SFC WINDS. N-NW WINDS BEHIND THE
FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH DURING THE LATE EVENING AS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES IN.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT ARE MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INCHES TOWARD THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW
DEGREES IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WITH EASTERN AREAS
REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE. ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
WILL OBSERVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY
WITH LIGHTER WINDS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY...AND
WILL BE ESPECIALLY STRONG AND PERHAPS EVEN SEVERE ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE. IN
ADDITION TO THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BATCHES OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PROGRESSING OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STILL
COVERING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A QUICKLY APPROACHING DRY
SLOT CAN BE SEEN CLOSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...AND A DISPERSION OF MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER
NM IS EXPECTED INTO THE LATE MORNING. IT WAS A WELCOME FEAT TO
HAVE 30S DEWPOINTS OVER CENTRAL NM AND 40S IN THE EAST THE PAST
FEW DAYS...BUT THESE ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT EASTWARD AS
VERTICAL MIXING TRANSPORTS THE DRIER AIR ALOFT TOWARD THE SURFACE.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER AMIDST THE LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY INTO THE EVENING. WINDS ARE GOING TO APPROACH CLOSE TO
THE 30 MPH SUSTAINED WIND SPEED THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT HAVE OPTED TO STAND DOWN ON ANY ISSUANCE AT THIS
TIME. SOME BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED IN LOWER ELEVATION AREAS THAT
ARE PRONE TO DUST...BUT WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NOTABLE DROP IN WESTERN
ZONES WHILE THE EASTERN PLAINS CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE AVERAGE.

TROUGH AXIS WILL EXIT EAST OF NM TONIGHT WITH A SHORT-LIVED BACK
DOOR FRONT SLIDING DOWN THE PLAINS. THE TEMPERATURES BE SET BACK
SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE EASTERN ZONES GOING INTO THURSDAY...BUT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD STILL REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF NORMAL. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT TURNING ZONAL A CONTINUED DRY
AIRMASS WILL CHOKE OUT ANY HOPE FOR PRECIP THURSDAY...AND LEE SIDE
TROUGHING WILL QUICKLY ALLOW WINDS TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE
PLAINS.

BY FRIDAY THE WINDS ALOFT WILL ALREADY BEGIN TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED SOME FOR FRIDAY DUE TO PROJECTED HIGHER SPEEDS
ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES FOR
EFFICIENT VERTICAL MIXING. THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO
DEEPEN AND HELP THE CAUSE...SO TEMPERATURES WILL RISE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST ZONES WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
POSSIBLE AGAIN.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS HIGHLY ENTERTAINING FROM A METEOROLOGICAL
SPECTATING STANDPOINT...BUT QUITE ABYSMAL FROM A RESIDENT
STANDPOINT. THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A TRACK
OVER SOUTHERN CA AND AZ BEFORE HITTING WEST CENTRAL NM AND THEN
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY. RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL TURN THIS FEATURE INTO AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND COLD LOW THAT WILL BRING VERY STRONG TO
SEVERE WINDS TO THE STATE...COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...AND
PRECIPITATION. THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE FARTHER
SOUTH ON LATEST MODEL RUNS DUE TO A SLIGHT SHIFT IN TRACK...BUT
AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL MEMBERS IS FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE ONE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL KEEPING THE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW A
BIT MORE CONDUCIVE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTO PARTS OF NM.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL CONDITIONS TODAY AND RETURNING CENTRAL AND EAST FRIDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING WINDY AND DRIER CONDITIONS. MOST OF
THE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED OUT TODAY...AND A DRIER AIR
MASS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HEADED OUR WAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. ENDED UP DROPPING THE EXISTING FIRE WX
WATCH FOR ZONES 101 AND 102...HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN OR NEAR
NORMAL...AND HAINES LOW TO MODERATE. THAT SAID...WINDS AND MIN RH
MAY EXCEED CRITICAL CRITERIA FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THOSE TWO
ZONES...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR TODAY REMAINS UNCHANGED.

RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE POOR TO FAIR AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH FORT SUMNER. A
FRONT IN THE NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL WILL ALLOW SOME HIGHER
HUMIDITIES TO SLOSH WEST AND SOUTHWARD BUT THIS MIXES OUT LATER IN
THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH MOST AREAS FORECAST TO SEE MIN RH VALUES OF
LESS THAN 15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
CRITICAL CONDITIONS OVER A LARGE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE LAS VEGAS AREA
MAY SEE SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS...RH RECOVERIES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
PATHETIC FOR THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH SOME MAX RH VALUES
NOT EVEN REACHING 25 PERCENT. THE MAJORITY OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING THE EASTERN PLAINS...MAY SEE MAX HUMIDITIES
IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. THIS LEADS INTO FRIDAY...WHICH NOW
LOOKS MUCH WINDIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

HAVE OPTED FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE AREA FROM THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO THE TX BORDER FRIDAY.
SINGLE DIGIT MIN RH WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER THIS AREA...ALONG WITH
HAINES OF 6 AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL
LIKELY STAY GUSTY ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEADING INTO A VERY WINDY DAY SATURDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO 60 MPH OVER CENTRAL AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. CRITICAL
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EASTWARD
SATURDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING OVER THE WEST AND
NORTH. THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MUCH COLDER ALOFT...WITH
H7 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -5 TO -8 DEG C SATURDAY NIGHT...SO
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL AS SNOW. SUNDAY COULD BE QUITE
WINDY ALSO...BUT MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL. HIGHS
SLOWLY RECOVER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103>109.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.

&&

$$

SHY












000
FXUS65 KABQ 231124
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
524 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
STRENGTHENING SW TO W WINDS AS AN UPPER TROF SWEEPS FROM WEST TO
EAST OVER THE CENTRAL AND SRN ROCKIES AND SFC LEE TROF REMAINS
ACROSS ERN CO AND NM TODAY. LOCALIZED AREAS OF 5SM BLDU AFT 18Z NE
AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. LINGERING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO BE
SHUNTED EAST BUT ISOLD SHOWERS OR TSTMS POSSIBLE NRN MTS AND
NORTHEAST NM...ESPECIALLY AFT 24/00Z AS SFC FRONT PUSHES INTO THAT
PORTION OF THE STATE.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT ARE MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INCHES TOWARD THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW
DEGREES IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WITH EASTERN AREAS
REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE. ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
WILL OBSERVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY
WITH LIGHTER WINDS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY...AND
WILL BE ESPECIALLY STRONG AND PERHAPS EVEN SEVERE ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE. IN
ADDITION TO THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BATCHES OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PROGRESSING OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STILL
COVERING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A QUICKLY APPROACHING DRY
SLOT CAN BE SEEN CLOSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...AND A DISPERSION OF MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER
NM IS EXPECTED INTO THE LATE MORNING. IT WAS A WELCOME FEAT TO
HAVE 30S DEWPOINTS OVER CENTRAL NM AND 40S IN THE EAST THE PAST
FEW DAYS...BUT THESE ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT EASTWARD AS
VERTICAL MIXING TRANSPORTS THE DRIER AIR ALOFT TOWARD THE SURFACE.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER AMIDST THE LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY INTO THE EVENING. WINDS ARE GOING TO APPROACH CLOSE TO
THE 30 MPH SUSTAINED WIND SPEED THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT HAVE OPTED TO STAND DOWN ON ANY ISSUANCE AT THIS
TIME. SOME BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED IN LOWER ELEVATION AREAS THAT
ARE PRONE TO DUST...BUT WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NOTABLE DROP IN WESTERN
ZONES WHILE THE EASTERN PLAINS CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE AVERAGE.

TROUGH AXIS WILL EXIT EAST OF NM TONIGHT WITH A SHORT-LIVED BACK
DOOR FRONT SLIDING DOWN THE PLAINS. THE TEMPERATURES BE SET BACK
SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE EASTERN ZONES GOING INTO THURSDAY...BUT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD STILL REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF NORMAL. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT TURNING ZONAL A CONTINUED DRY
AIRMASS WILL CHOKE OUT ANY HOPE FOR PRECIP THURSDAY...AND LEE SIDE
TROUGHING WILL QUICKLY ALLOW WINDS TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE
PLAINS.

BY FRIDAY THE WINDS ALOFT WILL ALREADY BEGIN TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED SOME FOR FRIDAY DUE TO PROJECTED HIGHER SPEEDS
ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES FOR
EFFICIENT VERTICAL MIXING. THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO
DEEPEN AND HELP THE CAUSE...SO TEMPERATURES WILL RISE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST ZONES WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
POSSIBLE AGAIN.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS HIGHLY ENTERTAINING FROM A METEOROLOGICAL
SPECTATING STANDPOINT...BUT QUITE ABYSMAL FROM A RESIDENT
STANDPOINT. THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A TRACK
OVER SOUTHERN CA AND AZ BEFORE HITTING WEST CENTRAL NM AND THEN
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY. RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL TURN THIS FEATURE INTO AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND COLD LOW THAT WILL BRING VERY STRONG TO
SEVERE WINDS TO THE STATE...COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...AND
PRECIPITATION. THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE FARTHER
SOUTH ON LATEST MODEL RUNS DUE TO A SLIGHT SHIFT IN TRACK...BUT
AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL MEMBERS IS FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE ONE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL KEEPING THE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW A
BIT MORE CONDUCIVE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTO PARTS OF NM.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL CONDITIONS TODAY AND RETURNING CENTRAL AND EAST FRIDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING WINDY AND DRIER CONDITIONS. MOST OF
THE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED OUT TODAY...AND A DRIER AIR
MASS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HEADED OUR WAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. ENDED UP DROPPING THE EXISTING FIRE WX
WATCH FOR ZONES 101 AND 102...HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN OR NEAR
NORMAL...AND HAINES LOW TO MODERATE. THAT SAID...WINDS AND MIN RH
MAY EXCEED CRITICAL CRITERIA FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THOSE TWO
ZONES...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR TODAY REMAINS UNCHANGED.

RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE POOR TO FAIR AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH FORT SUMNER. A
FRONT IN THE NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL WILL ALLOW SOME HIGHER
HUMIDITIES TO SLOSH WEST AND SOUTHWARD BUT THIS MIXES OUT LATER IN
THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH MOST AREAS FORECAST TO SEE MIN RH VALUES OF
LESS THAN 15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
CRITICAL CONDITIONS OVER A LARGE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE LAS VEGAS AREA
MAY SEE SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS...RH RECOVERIES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
PATHETIC FOR THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH SOME MAX RH VALUES
NOT EVEN REACHING 25 PERCENT. THE MAJORITY OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING THE EASTERN PLAINS...MAY SEE MAX HUMIDITIES
IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. THIS LEADS INTO FRIDAY...WHICH NOW
LOOKS MUCH WINDIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

HAVE OPTED FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE AREA FROM THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO THE TX BORDER FRIDAY.
SINGLE DIGIT MIN RH WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER THIS AREA...ALONG WITH
HAINES OF 6 AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL
LIKELY STAY GUSTY ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEADING INTO A VERY WINDY DAY SATURDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO 60 MPH OVER CENTRAL AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. CRITICAL
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EASTWARD
SATURDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING OVER THE WEST AND
NORTH. THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MUCH COLDER ALOFT...WITH
H7 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -5 TO -8 DEG C SATURDAY NIGHT...SO
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL AS SNOW. SUNDAY COULD BE QUITE
WINDY ALSO...BUT MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL. HIGHS
SLOWLY RECOVER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103>109.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 230940
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
340 AM MDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS ALOFT ARE MOVING INTO NEW MEXICO AS A
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE INCHES TOWARD THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS. MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY WITH WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS MOST
OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL A FEW
DEGREES IN WESTERN NEW MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WITH EASTERN AREAS
REMAINING ABOVE AVERAGE. ALL OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO
WILL OBSERVE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS ON THURSDAY
WITH LIGHTER WINDS. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY...AND
WILL BE ESPECIALLY STRONG AND PERHAPS EVEN SEVERE ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS A VIGOROUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE STATE. IN
ADDITION TO THE VERY WINDY CONDITIONS...THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL ALSO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BATCHES OF RAIN AND SNOW
TO THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT THIS WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE PROGRESSING OVER
EASTERN NEW MEXICO WITH MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS STILL
COVERING MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. A QUICKLY APPROACHING DRY
SLOT CAN BE SEEN CLOSE TO THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS ON WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY...AND A DISPERSION OF MUCH OF THE CLOUD COVER OVER
NM IS EXPECTED INTO THE LATE MORNING. IT WAS A WELCOME FEAT TO
HAVE 30S DEWPOINTS OVER CENTRAL NM AND 40S IN THE EAST THE PAST
FEW DAYS...BUT THESE ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO SCOUR OUT EASTWARD AS
VERTICAL MIXING TRANSPORTS THE DRIER AIR ALOFT TOWARD THE SURFACE.
THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR FAIRLY WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER AMIDST THE LOW HUMIDITY AND STRONG WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EARLY INTO THE EVENING. WINDS ARE GOING TO APPROACH CLOSE TO
THE 30 MPH SUSTAINED WIND SPEED THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A WIND
ADVISORY...BUT HAVE OPTED TO STAND DOWN ON ANY ISSUANCE AT THIS
TIME. SOME BLOWING DUST IS EXPECTED IN LOWER ELEVATION AREAS THAT
ARE PRONE TO DUST...BUT WIDESPREAD VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT
ANTICIPATED. TEMPERATURES WILL TAKE A NOTABLE DROP IN WESTERN
ZONES WHILE THE EASTERN PLAINS CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE AVERAGE.

TROUGH AXIS WILL EXIT EAST OF NM TONIGHT WITH A SHORT-LIVED BACK
DOOR FRONT SLIDING DOWN THE PLAINS. THE TEMPERATURES BE SET BACK
SEVERAL DEGREES IN THE EASTERN ZONES GOING INTO THURSDAY...BUT THE
ENTIRE FORECAST AREA SHOULD STILL REMAIN A COUPLE DEGREES EITHER
SIDE OF NORMAL. WITH THE FLOW ALOFT TURNING ZONAL A CONTINUED DRY
AIRMASS WILL CHOKE OUT ANY HOPE FOR PRECIP THURSDAY...AND LEE SIDE
TROUGHING WILL QUICKLY ALLOW WINDS TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY IN THE
PLAINS.

BY FRIDAY THE WINDS ALOFT WILL ALREADY BEGIN TURNING SOUTHWESTERLY
IN RESPONSE TO THE NEXT APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM. WINDS
HAVE BEEN INCREASED SOME FOR FRIDAY DUE TO PROJECTED HIGHER SPEEDS
ALOFT AND SUFFICIENT BOUNDARY LAYER TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES FOR
EFFICIENT VERTICAL MIXING. THE LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO
DEEPEN AND HELP THE CAUSE...SO TEMPERATURES WILL RISE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN MOST ZONES WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
POSSIBLE AGAIN.

THE WEEKEND LOOKS HIGHLY ENTERTAINING FROM A METEOROLOGICAL
SPECTATING STANDPOINT...BUT QUITE ABYSMAL FROM A RESIDENT
STANDPOINT. THE APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TAKE A TRACK
OVER SOUTHERN CA AND AZ BEFORE HITTING WEST CENTRAL NM AND THEN
LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF THE STATE EARLY SUNDAY. RAPID
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE WEST COAST WILL TURN THIS FEATURE INTO AN
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP AND COLD LOW THAT WILL BRING VERY STRONG TO
SEVERE WINDS TO THE STATE...COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPERATURES...AND
PRECIPITATION. THE EXTENT OF PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE FARTHER
SOUTH ON LATEST MODEL RUNS DUE TO A SLIGHT SHIFT IN TRACK...BUT
AGREEMENT AMONG MODEL MEMBERS IS FAIRLY GOOD THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO SHIFT TO A HIGH AMPLITUDE ONE THROUGH NEXT
WEEK WITH THE EUROPEAN MODEL KEEPING THE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW A
BIT MORE CONDUCIVE TO SHORT WAVE ENERGY INTO PARTS OF NM.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL CONDITIONS TODAY AND RETURNING CENTRAL AND EAST FRIDAY...

LITTLE CHANGE FOR TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. UPPER TROUGH TO SWEEP
THROUGH THE REGION...BRINGING WINDY AND DRIER CONDITIONS. MOST OF
THE LINGERING MOISTURE WILL BE SHUNTED OUT TODAY...AND A DRIER AIR
MASS EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY HEADED OUR WAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION
OF A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS/STORMS NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHEAST TODAY AND TONIGHT. ENDED UP DROPPING THE EXISTING FIRE WX
WATCH FOR ZONES 101 AND 102...HIGH TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN OR NEAR
NORMAL...AND HAINES LOW TO MODERATE. THAT SAID...WINDS AND MIN RH
MAY EXCEED CRITICAL CRITERIA FOR SOME PORTIONS OF THOSE TWO
ZONES...ESPECIALLY AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. OTHERWISE...THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR TODAY REMAINS UNCHANGED.

RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE POOR TO FAIR AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS
SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM THE FOUR CORNERS THROUGH FORT SUMNER. A
FRONT IN THE NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL WILL ALLOW SOME HIGHER
HUMIDITIES TO SLOSH WEST AND SOUTHWARD BUT THIS MIXES OUT LATER IN
THE DAY THURSDAY...WITH MOST AREAS FORECAST TO SEE MIN RH VALUES OF
LESS THAN 15 PERCENT. WINDS WILL NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH TO TRIGGER
CRITICAL CONDITIONS OVER A LARGE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE LAS VEGAS AREA
MAY SEE SPOTTY CRITICAL CONDITIONS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

DUE TO THE DRIER AIR MASS...RH RECOVERIES THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
PATHETIC FOR THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH SOME MAX RH VALUES
NOT EVEN REACHING 25 PERCENT. THE MAJORITY OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS...INCLUDING THE EASTERN PLAINS...MAY SEE MAX HUMIDITIES
IN THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE. THIS LEADS INTO FRIDAY...WHICH NOW
LOOKS MUCH WINDIER THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.

HAVE OPTED FOR A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THE AREA FROM THE MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS EASTWARD TO THE TX BORDER FRIDAY.
SINGLE DIGIT MIN RH WILL BE WIDESPREAD OVER THIS AREA...ALONG WITH
HAINES OF 6 AND WARMER THAN AVERAGE HIGH TEMPERATURES. WINDS WILL
LIKELY STAY GUSTY ACROSS SOME OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEADING INTO A VERY WINDY DAY SATURDAY...WITH POTENTIAL FOR
GUSTS TO 60 MPH OVER CENTRAL AREAS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. CRITICAL
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE WIDESPREAD FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EASTWARD
SATURDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR SHOWERS INCREASING OVER THE WEST AND
NORTH. THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MUCH COLDER ALOFT...WITH
H7 TEMPERATURES FALLING TO -5 TO -8 DEG C SATURDAY NIGHT...SO
POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION WOULD FALL AS SNOW. SUNDAY COULD BE QUITE
WINDY ALSO...BUT MUCH COOLER THAN AVERAGE FOR LATE APRIL. HIGHS
SLOWLY RECOVER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT...AND SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST.



&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT AND A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH SHOULD KEEP
SFC WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTS AND E
OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. SW WINDS WILL THEN BCM STRONG AREAWIDE
WED MORNING AS WINDS ALOFT AND THE SFC LEE TROUGH CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING N OF NM. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FM THE W WED SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF
THE W FM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WESTWARD. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE N ACROSS THE PLAINS WED NIGHT.
LOOK FOR A RETURN OF VIRGA TO CENTRAL AND N CENTRAL AREAS WED
AFTN...AND POSSIBLY SOME -TSRA ACROSS THE NE PLAINS WED EVENING.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  67  32  69  38 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  63  22  65  27 /   5   0   0   0
CUBA............................  66  27  66  30 /   5   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  67  25  69  34 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  63  28  64  30 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  68  26  69  33 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  67  32  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  74  38  76  37 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  57  20  59  24 /  10   5   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  67  34  66  41 /   5   5   0   0
PECOS...........................  65  34  63  37 /   5   5   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  65  25  65  29 /   5   5   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  53  22  54  23 /  10   5   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  59  20  59  22 /  10  10   0   0
TAOS............................  67  24  65  30 /   5   5   0   0
MORA............................  67  31  65  36 /  10  10   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  73  32  72  36 /   5   5   0   0
SANTA FE........................  68  35  66  40 /   5   5   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  71  33  69  37 /   5   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  74  42  71  48 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  76  45  73  51 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  78  39  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  78  40  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  80  40  77  43 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  77  42  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  82  48  77  48 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  69  34  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  72  39  70  43 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  75  35  69  36 /   0   5   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  68  35  66  41 /   5   5   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  72  42  69  44 /   0   5   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  78  44  75  46 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  72  39  67  38 /   5   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  74  30  64  35 /   5  10   5   0
RATON...........................  75  32  69  35 /   5  10   5   0
SPRINGER........................  75  36  70  38 /   5  10   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  70  35  66  40 /   5   5   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  80  42  71  45 /   5  10   5   0
ROY.............................  74  39  67  43 /   5  10   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  82  45  75  48 /   5   5   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  81  43  75  47 /   5   5   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  87  44  77  49 /   5   5   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  83  44  75  47 /   5   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  83  46  76  48 /   5   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  85  47  76  49 /   5   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  89  51  81  51 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  82  49  76  50 /   5   0   0   0
ELK.............................  75  46  70  47 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103>109.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ103-104-106>108.

&&

$$

52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 230541 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1141 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.UPDATE...
STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT AND A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH SHOULD KEEP
SFC WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTS AND E
OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. SW WINDS WILL THEN BCM STRONG AREAWIDE
WED MORNING AS WINDS ALOFT AND THE SFC LEE TROUGH CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING N OF NM. A
PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FM THE W WED SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF
THE W FM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WESTWARD. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE N ACROSS THE PLAINS WED NIGHT.
LOOK FOR A RETURN OF VIRGA TO CENTRAL AND N CENTRAL AREAS WED
AFTN...AND POSSIBLY SOME -TSRA ACROSS THE NE PLAINS WED EVENING.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...259 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WINDY MIDWEEK WITH INCREASED FIRE DANGER WILL TAPER OFF AS THE
WORK WEEK WRAPS UP. A PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO
OVER THE WEEKEND...RETURNING GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
ALL BUT THE MORE SHOWERY COLORADO BORDER COUNTRY TO THE NORTH. A
COOL ENDING TO THE WEEKEND WILL SET UP A COOL AND BREEZY START TO
THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...RIDGE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES BOUND FOR TEXAS...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
RAPIDLY OVER NORTHERN UTAH IN THE SWEET SPOT OF SIGNIFICANT WEST
COAST TROUGH LYING ALONG THE SAN JOAQUIN AND SACRAMENTO RIVER
VALLEYS IN CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKIES
DOMINATE THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE FIRST OF THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
AND ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO
THIS EVENING.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES
EMERGING IN DETAILS OF OTHERWISE COHERENT UPSTREAM PATTERN
EVOLUTION FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS AN OTHERWISE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN STALLS TO A CRAWL FOR NEXT WORK WEEK. HAPPY START MOVES
WEST COAST TROUGH TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY LATE TONIGHT AND SWEEPS
THE TROUGH THROUGH NEW MEXICO INTO NORTH TEXAS BY EARLY THURSDAY.
UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL WALTZ EASTWARD OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON FRIDAY.
WINDS OVERHEAD WILL START BACKING TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS
AMPLIFYING WEST COAST TROUGH SLAMS INTO THE L.A. BASIN AND SAN
DIEGO AREA AND MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE TROUGH ASPECT FLOPS NEGATIVE IN THE FACE
OF UNDERCUTTING SHEARING FLOW...FULL NORTHWEST JET FORCE WILL SET
UP FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC DIRECTLY INTO NEW MEXICO ON
SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
DIFFERENCES EMERGING MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD...AS EUROPEAN ECMWF
SOLUTION NOW DEEPENS CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY...AND IT IS NOW DOMESTIC GFS THAT KEEPS THINGS AN OPEN WAVE
HEADING INTO THE HEART OF THE WORK WEEK. NEW MEXICO WILL ENJOY A
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH
SOLUTIONS...BUT AN EARLIER CLOSED LOW PER ECMWF WILL BRING GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHORTWAVE SPOKES SPINNING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE
THAN THE MORE OPEN WAVE GFS SOLUTION. BOTH SOLUTIONS LIKE A LATE
WEEK CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST...AS RIDGE
BUILDING FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC ACROSS ARIZONA TO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARD NEW MEXICO BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE EAST AND CENTRAL OVERNIGHT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WETTING RAINS...AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND TUSAS/SAN JUAN
SUMMITS WITH MODEST ACCUMULATION. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RUNNING
VERY MILD FOR LATE APRIL. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVER
THE NORTHEAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND
COLDER AIR PLUNGES INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN NEAR LATE APRIL NORMALS IN THE WEST...AND 6 TO 12 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL
CRANK UP EARLY WITH STRONGEST WINDS EAST AND SOUTH. WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL SET UP CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEXAS PANHANDLE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL HELP SET OFF SOME STATE LINE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...BUT THINKING MOST OF THESE WILL STAY ON
THE TEXAS SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THURSDAY...TROUGH WILL SHEAR EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES AS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL KICK UP ALONG THE I 25 CORRIDOR ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WITH SOME LOCALIZED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TO KEEP AN EYE ON. OTHERWISE...SUNNY AND DRY.

FOR FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
HIGH AMPLITUDE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA
COASTLINE. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH A COMPANION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. WARMING TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
LAST OF THE RIDGE WILL BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE WEST...AND 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST.
WIDESPREAD SOUTHWEST BREEZINESS FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER INCREASING
FLOW ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...AMPLIFYING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
FLOP NEGATIVE AND SLAM INTO THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH INITIAL SHOT OF ENERGY EJECTING RAPIDLY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES LATE SATURDAY. TURBULENT ZONAL FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE STATE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BEFORE NEXT SHOT OF ENERGY TURNS FLOW BRISK NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. WINDS ALREADY
WRITTEN WELL INTO ADVISORY RANGE PRETTY MUCH STATEWIDE ON
SATURDAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED OVER AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE ON SUNDAY...WITH
SOMEWHAT REDUCED BREEZES OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. NORTHWEST
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. TURNING SHARPLY COOLER...WITH TEMPERATURES
DIVING BACK BELOW LATE APRIL NORMALS ON SUNDAY...AND WIND UP 6 TO
12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY. SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST SATURDAY
WILL SMEAR EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EXPANDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR PACKED IN WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER...AND
EXPAND NIGHTTIME SNOW COVERAGE BEYOND THE SUMMITS TO THE UPPER
SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY MODEST...LOCALLY HEAVIEST
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS...THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU...AND
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE RED FLAG WARNING TILL
8PM WHEN WINDS AND TEMPS DECREASE. DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NM AND WETTER STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL PETER OUT AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR ACROSS THE WEST...BUT FAIR TO
GOOD ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW.
BUMPED UP WINDS WEDNESDAY AS LATEST GUIDANCE CAME IN STRONGER. NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...THE STRONGER WINDS...AND LOWER RH VALUES
WILL CREATE MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERS
OVER THE STATE. ZONES 101 AND 102 REMAIN BORDERLINE DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS...RH VALUES IN THE MID
TEENS...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. BUT  WILL NOT
CANCEL WARNING AT THIS TIME AS THESE VARIABLES ARE STILL SO CLOSE TO
NECESSARY THRESHOLDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE A BRIEF
BREAK FROM THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THURSDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING BRIEF BUT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
SLIGHT BUMP IN MOISTURE. DESPITE THIS MOISTURE...OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO POOR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND WILL
TREND DOWN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THURSDAY AS VENT RATES REMAIN EXCELLENT. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
AREA WIDE...BUT REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR NEAR LAS VEGAS.
A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP...BUT AREAL
COVERAGE WITH MARGINAL CONDITIONS PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NM FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS STILL VARY FOR THIS PERIOD ON TIMING AND HOW DEEP
THIS TROUGH DEVELOPS.  HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY AS
RH VALUES REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. AS WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR THRESHOLD LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND
WESTERN HIGHLANDS FRIDAY...AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP. WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGER ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NM SATURDAY THAN WHAT IS FORECASTED FOR WEDNESDAY...AND COMBINED
WITH LOW RH VALUES...WILL CREATE POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MTS...WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR DURING THE WEEKEND...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO TREND DOWN
ACROSS THE WEST SATURDAY AND AREA WIDE SUNDAY.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103>109.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM 11 AM MDT WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-102.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 230000 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
600 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WDSPR VIRGA CENTRAL AND W SHOULD DIMINISH WITHIN A FEW HOURS AFT SUNSET
THIS EVENING. SAME FOR ISOLD -TS/-SHRA ALONG THE NM EASTERN BORDER.
STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT AND A PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH SHOULD KEEP
SFC WINDS GUSTY AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MTS AND E
OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN. SW WINDS WILL THEN BCM STRONG AREAWIDE
WED MORNING AS WINDS ALOFT AND THE SFC LEE TROUGH CONTINUE TO
STRENGTHEN IN RESPONSE TO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSING N OF NM.
A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CROSS FM THE W WED SHIFTING WINDS OUT
OF THE W FM THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN WESTWARD. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL THEN SHIFT WINDS OUT OF THE N ACROSS THE PLAINS WED NIGHT.
LOOK FOR A RETURN OF VIRGA TO CENTRAL AND N CENTRAL AREAS WED
AFTN...AND POSSIBLY SOME -TSRA ACROSS THE NE PLAINS WED EVENING.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...259 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WINDY MIDWEEK WITH INCREASED FIRE DANGER WILL TAPER OFF AS THE
WORK WEEK WRAPS UP. A PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO
OVER THE WEEKEND...RETURNING GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
ALL BUT THE MORE SHOWERY COLORADO BORDER COUNTRY TO THE NORTH. A
COOL ENDING TO THE WEEKEND WILL SET UP A COOL AND BREEZY START TO
THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...RIDGE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES BOUND FOR TEXAS...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
RAPIDLY OVER NORTHERN UTAH IN THE SWEET SPOT OF SIGNIFICANT WEST
COAST TROUGH LYING ALONG THE SAN JOAQUIN AND SACRAMENTO RIVER
VALLEYS IN CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKIES
DOMINATE THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE FIRST OF THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
AND ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO
THIS EVENING.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES
EMERGING IN DETAILS OF OTHERWISE COHERENT UPSTREAM PATTERN
EVOLUTION FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS AN OTHERWISE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN STALLS TO A CRAWL FOR NEXT WORK WEEK. HAPPY START MOVES
WEST COAST TROUGH TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY LATE TONIGHT AND SWEEPS
THE TROUGH THROUGH NEW MEXICO INTO NORTH TEXAS BY EARLY THURSDAY.
UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL WALTZ EASTWARD OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON FRIDAY.
WINDS OVERHEAD WILL START BACKING TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS
AMPLIFYING WEST COAST TROUGH SLAMS INTO THE L.A. BASIN AND SAN
DIEGO AREA AND MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE TROUGH ASPECT FLOPS NEGATIVE IN THE FACE
OF UNDERCUTTING SHEARING FLOW...FULL NORTHWEST JET FORCE WILL SET
UP FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC DIRECTLY INTO NEW MEXICO ON
SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
DIFFERENCES EMERGING MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD...AS EUROPEAN ECMWF
SOLUTION NOW DEEPENS CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY...AND IT IS NOW DOMESTIC GFS THAT KEEPS THINGS AN OPEN WAVE
HEADING INTO THE HEART OF THE WORK WEEK. NEW MEXICO WILL ENJOY A
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH
SOLUTIONS...BUT AN EARLIER CLOSED LOW PER ECMWF WILL BRING GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHORTWAVE SPOKES SPINNING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE
THAN THE MORE OPEN WAVE GFS SOLUTION. BOTH SOLUTIONS LIKE A LATE
WEEK CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST...AS RIDGE
BUILDING FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC ACROSS ARIZONA TO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARD NEW MEXICO BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE EAST AND CENTRAL OVERNIGHT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WETTING RAINS...AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND TUSAS/SAN JUAN
SUMMITS WITH MODEST ACCUMULATION. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RUNNING
VERY MILD FOR LATE APRIL. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVER
THE NORTHEAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND
COLDER AIR PLUNGES INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN NEAR LATE APRIL NORMALS IN THE WEST...AND 6 TO 12 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL
CRANK UP EARLY WITH STRONGEST WINDS EAST AND SOUTH. WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL SET UP CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEXAS PANHANDLE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL HELP SET OFF SOME STATE LINE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...BUT THINKING MOST OF THESE WILL STAY ON
THE TEXAS SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THURSDAY...TROUGH WILL SHEAR EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES AS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL KICK UP ALONG THE I 25 CORRIDOR ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WITH SOME LOCALIZED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TO KEEP AN EYE ON. OTHERWISE...SUNNY AND DRY.

FOR FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
HIGH AMPLITUDE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA
COASTLINE. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH A COMPANION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. WARMING TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
LAST OF THE RIDGE WILL BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE WEST...AND 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST.
WIDESPREAD SOUTHWEST BREEZINESS FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER INCREASING
FLOW ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...AMPLIFYING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
FLOP NEGATIVE AND SLAM INTO THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH INITIAL SHOT OF ENERGY EJECTING RAPIDLY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES LATE SATURDAY. TURBULENT ZONAL FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE STATE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BEFORE NEXT SHOT OF ENERGY TURNS FLOW BRISK NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. WINDS ALREADY
WRITTEN WELL INTO ADVISORY RANGE PRETTY MUCH STATEWIDE ON
SATURDAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED OVER AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE ON SUNDAY...WITH
SOMEWHAT REDUCED BREEZES OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. NORTHWEST
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. TURNING SHARPLY COOLER...WITH TEMPERATURES
DIVING BACK BELOW LATE APRIL NORMALS ON SUNDAY...AND WIND UP 6 TO
12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY. SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST SATURDAY
WILL SMEAR EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EXPANDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR PACKED IN WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER...AND
EXPAND NIGHTTIME SNOW COVERAGE BEYOND THE SUMMITS TO THE UPPER
SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY MODEST...LOCALLY HEAVIEST
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS...THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU...AND
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE RED FLAG WARNING TILL
8PM WHEN WINDS AND TEMPS DECREASE. DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NM AND WETTER STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL PETER OUT AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR ACROSS THE WEST...BUT FAIR TO
GOOD ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW.
BUMPED UP WINDS WEDNESDAY AS LATEST GUIDANCE CAME IN STRONGER. NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...THE STRONGER WINDS...AND LOWER RH VALUES
WILL CREATE MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERS
OVER THE STATE. ZONES 101 AND 102 REMAIN BORDERLINE DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS...RH VALUES IN THE MID
TEENS...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. BUT  WILL NOT
CANCEL WARNING AT THIS TIME AS THESE VARIABLES ARE STILL SO CLOSE TO
NECESSARY THRESHOLDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE A BRIEF
BREAK FROM THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THURSDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING BRIEF BUT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
SLIGHT BUMP IN MOISTURE. DESPITE THIS MOISTURE...OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO POOR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND WILL
TREND DOWN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THURSDAY AS VENT RATES REMAIN EXCELLENT. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
AREA WIDE...BUT REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR NEAR LAS VEGAS.
A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP...BUT AREAL
COVERAGE WITH MARGINAL CONDITIONS PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NM FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS STILL VARY FOR THIS PERIOD ON TIMING AND HOW DEEP
THIS TROUGH DEVELOPS.  HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY AS
RH VALUES REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. AS WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR THRESHOLD LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND
WESTERN HIGHLANDS FRIDAY...AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP. WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGER ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NM SATURDAY THAN WHAT IS FORECASTED FOR WEDNESDAY...AND COMBINED
WITH LOW RH VALUES...WILL CREATE POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MTS...WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR DURING THE WEEKEND...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO TREND DOWN
ACROSS THE WEST SATURDAY AND AREA WIDE SUNDAY.

24

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ101-105-106.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103>109.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-102.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 222059
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
259 PM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINDY MIDWEEK WITH INCREASED FIRE DANGER WILL TAPER OFF AS THE
WORK WEEK WRAPS UP. A PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO
OVER THE WEEKEND...RETURNING GUSTY WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS TO
ALL BUT THE MORE SHOWERY COLORADO BORDER COUNTRY TO THE NORTH. A
COOL ENDING TO THE WEEKEND WILL SET UP A COOL AND BREEZY START TO
THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...RIDGE FROM NORTHERN MEXICO ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TO THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES BOUND FOR TEXAS...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS
RAPIDLY OVER NORTHERN UTAH IN THE SWEET SPOT OF SIGNIFICANT WEST
COAST TROUGH LYING ALONG THE SAN JOAQUIN AND SACRAMENTO RIVER
VALLEYS IN CALIFORNIA. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE AND SUNNY SKIES
DOMINATE THE STATE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE FIRST OF THE
AFTERNOON CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO
RANGE...WITH INCREASING COVERAGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST SLOPES
AND ADJACENT EASTERN PLAINS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO
THIS EVENING.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH MONDAY...WITH DIFFERENCES
EMERGING IN DETAILS OF OTHERWISE COHERENT UPSTREAM PATTERN
EVOLUTION FROM MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD AS AN OTHERWISE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN STALLS TO A CRAWL FOR NEXT WORK WEEK. HAPPY START MOVES
WEST COAST TROUGH TO THE FOUR CORNERS BY LATE TONIGHT AND SWEEPS
THE TROUGH THROUGH NEW MEXICO INTO NORTH TEXAS BY EARLY THURSDAY.
UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL WALTZ EASTWARD OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE
DAY ON THURSDAY...AND INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ON FRIDAY.
WINDS OVERHEAD WILL START BACKING TO SOUTHWEST ON FRIDAY AS
AMPLIFYING WEST COAST TROUGH SLAMS INTO THE L.A. BASIN AND SAN
DIEGO AREA AND MOVES ACROSS ARIZONA TO WESTERN NEW MEXICO BY EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. AS THE TROUGH ASPECT FLOPS NEGATIVE IN THE FACE
OF UNDERCUTTING SHEARING FLOW...FULL NORTHWEST JET FORCE WILL SET
UP FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC DIRECTLY INTO NEW MEXICO ON
SUNDAY...WITH BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY.
DIFFERENCES EMERGING MONDAY NIGHT ONWARD...AS EUROPEAN ECMWF
SOLUTION NOW DEEPENS CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER MISSOURI
VALLEY...AND IT IS NOW DOMESTIC GFS THAT KEEPS THINGS AN OPEN WAVE
HEADING INTO THE HEART OF THE WORK WEEK. NEW MEXICO WILL ENJOY A
BLUSTERY NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH BOTH
SOLUTIONS...BUT AN EARLIER CLOSED LOW PER ECMWF WILL BRING GREATER
CHANCE FOR SHORTWAVE SPOKES SPINNING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE
THAN THE MORE OPEN WAVE GFS SOLUTION. BOTH SOLUTIONS LIKE A LATE
WEEK CLOSED LOW OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND MIDWEST...AS RIDGE
BUILDING FROM THE TROPICAL EAST PACIFIC ACROSS ARIZONA TO THE
CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL DRIFT EAST TOWARD NEW MEXICO BY THE END OF
THE WORK WEEK.

OVERNIGHT...ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE EAST AND CENTRAL OVERNIGHT
WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF WETTING RAINS...AND SOME OF THE SHOWERS
CHANGING OVER TO SNOW OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO AND TUSAS/SAN JUAN
SUMMITS WITH MODEST ACCUMULATION. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES RUNNING
VERY MILD FOR LATE APRIL. OVERNIGHT WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY OVER
THE NORTHEAST.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WEST COAST TROUGH MOVING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...AS SURFACE LOW DEEPENS OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...AND
COLDER AIR PLUNGES INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTHWEST. TEMPERATURES
WILL RUN NEAR LATE APRIL NORMALS IN THE WEST...AND 6 TO 12 DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST. GUSTY SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS WILL
CRANK UP EARLY WITH STRONGEST WINDS EAST AND SOUTH. WINDS AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL SET UP CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. TEXAS PANHANDLE SURFACE LOW AND TROUGH
DYNAMICS ALOFT WILL HELP SET OFF SOME STATE LINE THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS...BUT THINKING MOST OF THESE WILL STAY ON
THE TEXAS SIDE OF THE LINE THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR THURSDAY...TROUGH WILL SHEAR EAST INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS
STATES AS DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL RUN NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE APRIL. AFTERNOON
SOUTHWEST BREEZES WILL KICK UP ALONG THE I 25 CORRIDOR ON THE EAST
SIDE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS WITH SOME LOCALIZED FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS TO KEEP AN EYE ON. OTHERWISE...SUNNY AND DRY.

FOR FRIDAY...FLOW ALOFT BACKING SOUTHWESTERLY IN ADVANCE OF NEXT
HIGH AMPLITUDE PACIFIC TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA
COASTLINE. SURFACE LOW WILL DEEPEN OVER THE NORTHERN END OF THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE...ALONG WITH A COMPANION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
TROUGH ALOFT OVER SOUTHERN NEVADA. WARMING TEMPERATURES UNDER THE
LAST OF THE RIDGE WILL BOOST DAYTIME HIGHS 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE WEST...AND 8 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST.
WIDESPREAD SOUTHWEST BREEZINESS FRIDAY AFTERNOON UNDER INCREASING
FLOW ALOFT.

OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...AMPLIFYING PACIFIC TROUGH WILL
FLOP NEGATIVE AND SLAM INTO THE FOUR CORNERS SATURDAY
MORNING...WITH INITIAL SHOT OF ENERGY EJECTING RAPIDLY INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES LATE SATURDAY. TURBULENT ZONAL FLOW WILL
REMAIN OVER THE STATE FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING...BEFORE NEXT SHOT OF ENERGY TURNS FLOW BRISK NORTHWEST
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY AND CONTINUING INTO MONDAY. WINDS ALREADY
WRITTEN WELL INTO ADVISORY RANGE PRETTY MUCH STATEWIDE ON
SATURDAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS FOCUSED OVER AND EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO RANGE ON SUNDAY...WITH
SOMEWHAT REDUCED BREEZES OVER THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. NORTHWEST
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHERN CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. TURNING SHARPLY COOLER...WITH TEMPERATURES
DIVING BACK BELOW LATE APRIL NORMALS ON SUNDAY...AND WIND UP 6 TO
12 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON MONDAY. SHOWERS NORTH AND WEST SATURDAY
WILL SMEAR EASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE STATE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT SUNDAY NIGHT...AND EXPANDING SOUTHWARD OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. COLDER AIR PACKED IN WITH THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW LEVELS DOWN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER...AND
EXPAND NIGHTTIME SNOW COVERAGE BEYOND THE SUMMITS TO THE UPPER
SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY MODEST...LOCALLY HEAVIEST
NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ONGOING THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL
RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...

AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN HIGHLANDS...THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU...AND
THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WILL CONTINUE RED FLAG WARNING TILL
8PM WHEN WINDS AND TEMPS DECREASE. DRY THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN
NM AND WETTER STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH WILL PETER OUT AFTER SUNSET.
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR ACROSS THE WEST...BUT FAIR TO
GOOD ACROSS THE EAST DUE TO MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY TO SOUTHERLY FLOW.
BUMPED UP WINDS WEDNESDAY AS LATEST GUIDANCE CAME IN STRONGER. NEAR
TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS...THE STRONGER WINDS...AND LOWER RH VALUES
WILL CREATE MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERS
OVER THE STATE. ZONES 101 AND 102 REMAIN BORDERLINE DUE TO A
COMBINATION OF SLIGHTLY WEAKER WINDS...RH VALUES IN THE MID
TEENS...AND NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPS. BUT  WILL NOT
CANCEL WARNING AT THIS TIME AS THESE VARIABLES ARE STILL SO CLOSE TO
NECESSARY THRESHOLDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL EXIT WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND PROVIDE A BRIEF
BREAK FROM THE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER THURSDAY. A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING...BRINGING BRIEF BUT STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND A
SLIGHT BUMP IN MOISTURE. DESPITE THIS MOISTURE...OVERNIGHT
RECOVERIES WILL BE FAIR TO POOR ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA AND WILL
TREND DOWN THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL
THURSDAY AS VENT RATES REMAIN EXCELLENT. WINDS WILL BE WEAKER
AREA WIDE...BUT REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE I-25 CORRIDOR NEAR LAS VEGAS.
A FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER MAY DEVELOP...BUT AREAL
COVERAGE WITH MARGINAL CONDITIONS PRECLUDE ANY FIRE WEATHER WATCH.

THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH NM FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. MODELS STILL VARY FOR THIS PERIOD ON TIMING AND HOW DEEP
THIS TROUGH DEVELOPS.  HOWEVER...CURRENT THINKING IS THIS SYSTEM
WILL BRING ANOTHER PROLONGED PERIOD OF POTENTIALLY CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS. TEMPS WILL WARM TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY AS
RH VALUES REMAIN IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS. AS WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR THRESHOLD LEVELS ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND
WESTERN HIGHLANDS FRIDAY...AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
MAY DEVELOP. WINDS LOOK TO BE STRONGER ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NM SATURDAY THAN WHAT IS FORECASTED FOR WEDNESDAY...AND COMBINED
WITH LOW RH VALUES...WILL CREATE POTENTIALLY WIDESPREAD CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM. WINDS WILL
REMAIN STRONG INTO SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MTS...WITH CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS. TEMPERATURES MAY BE ONLY LIMITING
FACTOR DURING THE WEEKEND...AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO TREND DOWN
ACROSS THE WEST SATURDAY AND AREA WIDE SUNDAY.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA AND -TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTS AND
MOVE TO THE NE...BUT DIE QUICKLY THEREAFTER. POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
NEAR KLVS...BUT NOT EXPECTING IMPACTS AT SITE AND CONFIDENCE LOW
FOR A VCTS. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. WIND
OF 10 TO 15KT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT BEFORE STEADILY INCREASING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

24

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  46  67  34  70 /   5   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  35  63  24  64 /  20   0   0   0
CUBA............................  39  65  28  67 /  20   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  41  67  29  69 /   5   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  36  63  27  65 /  10   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  40  67  29  69 /  10   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  42  67  33  68 /   5   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  45  74  36  75 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  32  57  23  60 /  20   5   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  46  65  35  66 /  20   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  45  65  34  64 /  20   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  39  64  26  65 /  20   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  32  52  24  52 /  20   5   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  31  59  22  58 /  30   5   0   0
TAOS............................  41  66  25  65 /  20   0   0   0
MORA............................  43  66  32  64 /  20   5   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  43  73  34  71 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  46  69  36  66 /  20   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  45  72  34  70 /  20   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  50  73  43  72 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  53  76  45  74 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  49  77  41  76 /   5   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  50  78  41  76 /   5   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  48  79  40  78 /   5   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  51  76  43  76 /   5   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  54  81  48  79 /   5   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  46  69  37  68 /  10   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  48  72  39  70 /  10   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  42  74  35  72 /  10   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  45  69  36  66 /  20   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  49  72  42  70 /  10   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  51  76  44  74 /  10   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  48  68  40  68 /  20   5   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  46  73  33  68 /  20   5   5   0
RATON...........................  44  75  34  70 /  20   5   5   0
SPRINGER........................  46  75  36  71 /  20   5   5   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  46  70  34  67 /  20   5   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  53  79  41  72 /  10   5   0   0
ROY.............................  49  75  39  70 /  10   5   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  57  81  45  76 /  10   5   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  53  81  44  76 /  10   5   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  59  86  44  78 /  10   5   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  53  82  43  75 /  10   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  56  82  45  76 /  10   5   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  56  84  47  77 /  20   5   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  57  88  51  81 /  20   5   0   0
PICACHO.........................  55  81  48  77 /  10   5   0   0
ELK.............................  51  75  46  72 /  20   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ101-105-106.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103>109.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-102.

&&

$$

SHY











000
FXUS65 KABQ 221736 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1136 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
ANOTHER ROUND OF -SHRA AND -TSRA WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MTS AND
MOVE TO THE NE...BUT DIE QUICKLY THEREAFTER. POTENTIAL FOR STORMS
NEAR KLVS...BUT NOT EXPECTING IMPACTS AT SITE AND CONFIDENCE LOW
FOR A VCTS. SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLY THIS
AFTN WITH GUSTS UP TO 35KTS BEFORE DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET. WIND
OF 10 TO 15KT WILL PERSIST OVERNIGHT BEFORE STEADILY INCREASING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

24

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 AM MDT TUE APR 22 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING EAST OF NEW
MEXICO TODAY WITH STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT MOVING INTO
THE STATE. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL TAKE SHAPE TODAY...AND
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN AVAILABLE FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. DRY AIR WILL THEN QUICKLY MOVE IN FROM
THE WEST BY WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUING.
SEASONAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY...RISING A FEW DEGREES
INTO FRIDAY AS DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL THEN APPROACH NEW MEXICO THIS WEEKEND...BRINGING ANOTHER BOUT
OF STRONG WINDS...COOLER TEMPERATURES...AND SOME PRECIPITATION TO
NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS CURRENTLY SHIFTING FROM CENTRAL TO EASTERN
PARTS OF NM. EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW SEEPED BEYOND SOME CENTRAL
GAPS AND CANYONS LAST EVENING...AND THIS HAS ALLOWED A SLIGHT RISE
IN DEWPOINTS/BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE. SOME OF THIS MOISTURE WILL
BEGIN TO RETREAT BACK EAST BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS VERTICAL MIXING
ENSUES. THE SOUTHWESTERLIES ALOFT WILL ALSO SEE APPRECIABLE RISES
IN SPEED THIS AFTERNOON WITH DEEPER LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING
DEPICTED BY FORECAST MODELS. ALL IN ALL...THE WIND GUIDANCE HAS
RISEN SOME FOR TODAY`S WIND SPEEDS AND CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
HAS BEEN ALIGNED TO REFLECT THIS. ESSENTIALLY NO CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE POPS AND TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WITH BEST POTENTIAL
EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND A DRIER VARIETY OF STORMS NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE IN THE WEST DUE TO DRYING BOUNDARY LAYER
CONDITIONS. TONIGHT AS THE UPPER LOW PROGRESSES EASTWARD ALONG THE
U.S./CANADIAN BORDER PRESSURE FALLS WILL OVERTAKE MOST OF THE
WESTERN U.S. DUE TO THE EXTENSION OF THE TROUGH AXIS. SOME
ADVECTION OF VORTICITY LOBES COULD HELP SUSTAIN ANY EVENING
CONVECTION AND KEEP SHOWERY PRECIPITATION SPREADING EASTWARD
AFTER MIDNIGHT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH AXIS WILL DRAG ACROSS NM WEDNESDAY WITH
INCREASING WINDS ALOFT AND A DEEPENING SURFACE LOW NEAR THE OK/TX
PANHANDLES. THIS SCENARIO COUPLED WITH STEEP TEMPERATURE LAPSE
RATES AND DEEP VERTICAL MIXING WILL YIELD BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS OVER THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH A CRITICAL
FIRE WEATHER THREAT. A RAPID PLUMMET IN DEWPOINTS WILL KILL ANY
SHOT FOR PRECIPITATION...AND TEMPERATURES WILL ACTUALLY BEGIN
FALLING A FEW DEGREES IN THE WESTERN ZONES. AS THE TROUGH AXIS
MAKES IT EASTWARD INTO TX WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE THERMAL TROUGH AND
WEAK DYNAMIC COOLING WILL HAVE ALSO SPREAD THROUGH THE REMAINING
EASTERN ZONES OF NM.

THE COOLING EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH PASSAGE WILL BRING THE FORECAST
AREA WITHIN A DEGREE OR TWO OF SEASONAL AVERAGES THURSDAY AS THE
UPPER FLOW TURNS ZONAL AND MUCH WEAKER THAN WEDNESDAY. SOME LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING WILL QUICKLY RE-ESTABLISH THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT OF A MUCH WEAKER CALIBER...AND CONSEQUENTLY ONLY
BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY BOTH ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH SOUTHWESTERLY BREEZES INCREASING FRIDAY.

THE WEEKEND STORM SYSTEM LOOKS QUITE DYNAMIC...ESPECIALLY FROM A
WIND STANDPOINT. THE GFS MODEL HAS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
THE EUROPEAN...HOWEVER IT STILL HAS SOME DIFFERENCES...INCLUDING
BEING A WINDIER SOLUTION. AND ALSO OF NOTE...THE CANADIAN MODEL
ISN`T TOO FAR FROM THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION. TRUE TO FORM...THE GFS
HAS A SLIGHT EDGE ON TIMING AND A TRACK OFFSET SLIGHTLY FARTHER
NORTH. WIND FORECAST HAS INCREASED FOR SATURDAY...AND POPS REMAIN
SLIGHT TO CHANCE CATEGORY...STARTING IN THE NORTHWEST BEFORE
DRAGGING ACROSS THE REMAINING NORTHERN ZONES INTO SUNDAY.
TEMPERATURES WOULD ALSO LIKELY DIVE BELOW AVERAGE WITH H7
TEMPERATURES DROPPING TO -6C NEAR THE CO/NM BORDER SUNDAY MORNING.

THE FLOW ALOFT COULD REMAIN PERTURBED WITH A STRONG MERIDIONAL
COMPONENT OVER NM INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A VERY HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN BECOMES CARVED OUT WITH A SHARP RIDGE IN THE
WESTERN CONUS AND A CUT OFF LOW IN THE EAST.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL SEE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AS AN
UPPER TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE TO OUR EAST CONTINUES TO PUSH SOME HIGHER...MID 30S...
DEWPOINTS INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...ALTHOUGH
THIS SHOULD WANE BETWEEN NOW AND AFTER SUNRISE. INDICATIONS ARE THE
MOISTURE SHOULD MIX OUT SUFFICIENTLY THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW MIN RH
VALUES TO FALL BELOW 15 PERCENT IN THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WITH
15 PERCENT OR LESS STILL FORECAST FOR LOCATIONS TO THE WEST AND
NORTHWEST. WINDS INCREASE AT THE SAME TIME...AND ARE A NOTCH HIGHER
THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST QUARTER...IN
THE MID RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND FROM THE FOUR CORNERS TO THE GALLUP
AREA. UPSHOT IS THE RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONES 101...105 AND 106
THIS AFTERNOON STILL APPEARS ON TRACK...WHERE HAINES OF 5
FORECAST...AND ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS INDICATED...ALONG WITH SOME MID
LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH COULD SPARK ISOLATED DRY SHOWERS/STORMS. WHILE
WINDS WILL MEET CRITERIA ALONG WITH ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS IN OTHER
AREAS...MIN RH NOT LOW ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS.

MORE WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS ON TRACK FOR WEDNESDAY AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE IS SHUNTED TO OUR EAST. WENT AHEAD AND CONVERTED THE
EXISTING WATCH TO A WARNING FOR ALL BUT ZONES 101 AND 102 WHERE
CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE MORE MARGINAL. EXCELLENT VENT RATES FORECAST
OVERALL BOTH TODAY AND WEDNESDAY.

RH RECOVERIES POOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTHEAST PLAINS AND EASTERN
PORTION OF THE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. MOST AREAS THURSDAY WILL SEE
SINGLE DIGIT RH VALUES IN THE AFTERNOON ALONG WITH HIGH HAINES BUT
WINDS LIKELY NOT STRONG ENOUGH FOR CRITICAL CONDITIONS...AND HIGHS
WILL BE CLOSER TO AVERAGE. THE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE CLINES CORNERS
TO LAS VEGAS TO RATON STRIP AS A LEE SURFACE TROUGH STRENGTHENS LATE
IN THE DAY.

WINDS AND TEMPERATURES INCREASE FRIDAY...WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR
CRITICAL CONDITIONS FAR WEST AND STRETCHING FROM THE CLINES CORNERS
AREA TO CLAYTON. THE NEXT BIG CRITICAL DAY COULD BE SATURDAY FOR THE
CENTRAL AND EAST...IF MODELS CONTINUE THE TREND OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM
BEING WINDIER INSTEAD OF WETTER. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE GFS AND ECMWF THOUGH. WINDS SATURDAY LOOK TO BE STRONGER THAN
THOSE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY...AND HIGH HAINES WILL DOMINATE THE EAST.
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WILL BE FOUND MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CRITICAL CONDITIONS SHOULD DIMINISH IN AREAL
COVERAGE SUNDAY...BECOMING CONFINED TO THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ101-105-106.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ103>109.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ101-102.

&&

$$








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