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000
FXUS65 KABQ 022337
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
537 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR STORM
ACTIVITY THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. BETTER
MOISTURE RESTS EVEN FARTHER EAST OF THIS INITIAL AREA...EXTENDING
TOWARD OK/TX BORDERS. THUS...HAVE INCLUDED THESE LOWLAND AREAS IN
LOW GRADE POPS AS WELL THROUGH THE EVENING.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...532 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER WEST TEXAS
NEXT 24 HOURS. SFC LEE TROUGH MAY DRAW HIGHER DEWPOINTS UP THE PECOS
VALLEY TO KROW VCNTY OVERNIGHT BUT NOT ANTICIPATING LOW CLOUDS AT
THIS TIME. THE SHIFT IN THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL ALLOW MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM THE CONTDVD TO THE TEXAS BORDER AFT
03/18Z. ISOLD CELLS OVER NE NM AT 02/23Z SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...320 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY WITH THE VERY WARM AND DRY PATTERN GIVING
WAY TO A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
FIRST NOTICEABLE INCREASE WILL BE THURSDAY ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE
EAST THIS WEEKEND. THE FINAL SURGE OF MOISTURE MAY OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
INCREASE FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
BURN SCARS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DRY AND VERY WARM DAY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EASTERN PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS ARE MAKING FOR A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND MILD...ASIDE FROM SOME
COOL READINGS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS.

SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY. SOME VIRGA SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD
FORM AS A RESULT...BUT MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE HARD TO COME BY FOR
ONE MORE DAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHEAST.

WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WE WILL GET OUR
FIRST DECENT MOISTURE SURGE ON THURSDAY...MAINLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY
AID IN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WE EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE GILA REGION.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS IT IN QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
GFS IS MUCH SLOWER...WAITING UNTIL SATURDAY. THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MEAN A SHARP
INCREASE IN CONVECTION FOR THE EAST. THIS COULD BE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
OR AS LATE AS SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE
SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE TO IMPACT NM. NO AREA WILL BE WITHOUT A
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PERHAPS THE BEST SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE SUPPORTING DEEP...TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING INTO AZ THEN NM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AND BELIEVE IT OR NOT...WE MAY BE SAYING HELLO
TO DOLLY A SECOND TIME IN SIX YEARS. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY CURRENTLY
IN THE WESTERN GULF MAY CROSS MEXICO BEFORE TURNING NORTH INTO AZ
SUNDAY THEN EAST INTO NM MONDAY. IF THIS PANS OUT...THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCAR AREAS. IT MUST BE POINTED OUT THAT THE
REMNANTS OF DOLLY IN 2008 TOOK A MUCH MORE DIRECT PATH INTO NM AND
WAS MORE ORGANIZED THAN WHAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE THIS TIME AROUND. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN
WEDNESDAY WHEN SPOTTY DRY THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER THE FORECAST. THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND AND
MONDAY WITH WETTING PRECIPITATION LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH BY THURSDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ON THE WEST COAST...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THAT TROUGH EASTWARD ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL CAUSE MONSOON MOISTURE TO SURGE
NORTHWARD WITH A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME ARCING OVER WESTERN...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY THURSDAY. ELEVATED MOISTURE MAY
INCREASE ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS AND WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AFTER POCKETS OF CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN VALLEYS WEDNESDAY...
THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DRAW MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIR INTO NM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY THURSDAY PWAT
VALUES SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR 1 INCH. ACCORDING TO THE GFS PWATS MAY
REACH AROUND 1.15 INCHES BY SUNDAY...THEN AROUND 1.3 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST MONDAYS SPIKE IN WESTERN PWATS MAY BE DUE IN LARGE
PART TO MOISTURE SPINNING NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OFF TROPICAL STORM
NORBERT. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CENTERED WELL OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.

MODELS ARE STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING WHEN A MOIST BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO EASTERN AREAS.  THE ECMWF FLIP FLOPPED
BACK TO THURSDAY WITH THIS FRONT. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
WENT WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING THE FRONT
IN ON SATURDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
WILL TREND DOWNWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY DUE TO THE MOISTURE INFLUX.
BY THE WEEKEND READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM NEAR NORMAL TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SIMILARLY...HAINES INDICES IN
THE 5 TO 6 RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER N CENTRAL AND NE AREAS THURSDAY...BEFORE
READINGS MODERATE AREAWIDE FRIDAY. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 022337
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
537 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.UPDATE...
SENT OUT A QUICK UPDATE TO THE FORECAST TO ACCOUNT FOR STORM
ACTIVITY THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS. BETTER
MOISTURE RESTS EVEN FARTHER EAST OF THIS INITIAL AREA...EXTENDING
TOWARD OK/TX BORDERS. THUS...HAVE INCLUDED THESE LOWLAND AREAS IN
LOW GRADE POPS AS WELL THROUGH THE EVENING.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...532 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER WEST TEXAS
NEXT 24 HOURS. SFC LEE TROUGH MAY DRAW HIGHER DEWPOINTS UP THE PECOS
VALLEY TO KROW VCNTY OVERNIGHT BUT NOT ANTICIPATING LOW CLOUDS AT
THIS TIME. THE SHIFT IN THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL ALLOW MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM THE CONTDVD TO THE TEXAS BORDER AFT
03/18Z. ISOLD CELLS OVER NE NM AT 02/23Z SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...320 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY WITH THE VERY WARM AND DRY PATTERN GIVING
WAY TO A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
FIRST NOTICEABLE INCREASE WILL BE THURSDAY ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE
EAST THIS WEEKEND. THE FINAL SURGE OF MOISTURE MAY OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
INCREASE FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
BURN SCARS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DRY AND VERY WARM DAY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EASTERN PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS ARE MAKING FOR A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND MILD...ASIDE FROM SOME
COOL READINGS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS.

SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY. SOME VIRGA SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD
FORM AS A RESULT...BUT MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE HARD TO COME BY FOR
ONE MORE DAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHEAST.

WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WE WILL GET OUR
FIRST DECENT MOISTURE SURGE ON THURSDAY...MAINLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY
AID IN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WE EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE GILA REGION.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS IT IN QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
GFS IS MUCH SLOWER...WAITING UNTIL SATURDAY. THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MEAN A SHARP
INCREASE IN CONVECTION FOR THE EAST. THIS COULD BE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
OR AS LATE AS SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE
SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE TO IMPACT NM. NO AREA WILL BE WITHOUT A
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PERHAPS THE BEST SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE SUPPORTING DEEP...TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING INTO AZ THEN NM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AND BELIEVE IT OR NOT...WE MAY BE SAYING HELLO
TO DOLLY A SECOND TIME IN SIX YEARS. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY CURRENTLY
IN THE WESTERN GULF MAY CROSS MEXICO BEFORE TURNING NORTH INTO AZ
SUNDAY THEN EAST INTO NM MONDAY. IF THIS PANS OUT...THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCAR AREAS. IT MUST BE POINTED OUT THAT THE
REMNANTS OF DOLLY IN 2008 TOOK A MUCH MORE DIRECT PATH INTO NM AND
WAS MORE ORGANIZED THAN WHAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE THIS TIME AROUND. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN
WEDNESDAY WHEN SPOTTY DRY THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER THE FORECAST. THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND AND
MONDAY WITH WETTING PRECIPITATION LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH BY THURSDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ON THE WEST COAST...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THAT TROUGH EASTWARD ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL CAUSE MONSOON MOISTURE TO SURGE
NORTHWARD WITH A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME ARCING OVER WESTERN...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY THURSDAY. ELEVATED MOISTURE MAY
INCREASE ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS AND WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AFTER POCKETS OF CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN VALLEYS WEDNESDAY...
THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DRAW MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIR INTO NM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY THURSDAY PWAT
VALUES SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR 1 INCH. ACCORDING TO THE GFS PWATS MAY
REACH AROUND 1.15 INCHES BY SUNDAY...THEN AROUND 1.3 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST MONDAYS SPIKE IN WESTERN PWATS MAY BE DUE IN LARGE
PART TO MOISTURE SPINNING NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OFF TROPICAL STORM
NORBERT. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CENTERED WELL OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.

MODELS ARE STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING WHEN A MOIST BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO EASTERN AREAS.  THE ECMWF FLIP FLOPPED
BACK TO THURSDAY WITH THIS FRONT. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
WENT WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING THE FRONT
IN ON SATURDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
WILL TREND DOWNWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY DUE TO THE MOISTURE INFLUX.
BY THE WEEKEND READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM NEAR NORMAL TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SIMILARLY...HAINES INDICES IN
THE 5 TO 6 RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER N CENTRAL AND NE AREAS THURSDAY...BEFORE
READINGS MODERATE AREAWIDE FRIDAY. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52





000
FXUS65 KABQ 022332
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
532 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER WEST TEXAS
NEXT 24 HOURS. SFC LEE TROUGH MAY DRAW HIGHER DEWPOINTS UP THE PECOS
VALLEY TO KROW VCNTY OVERNIGHT BUT NOT ANTICIPATING LOW CLOUDS AT
THIS TIME. THE SHIFT IN THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL ALLOW MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM THE CONTDVD TO THE TEXAS BORDER AFT
03/18Z. ISOLD CELLS OVER NE NM AT 02/23Z SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...320 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY WITH THE VERY WARM AND DRY PATTERN GIVING
WAY TO A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
FIRST NOTICEABLE INCREASE WILL BE THURSDAY ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE
EAST THIS WEEKEND. THE FINAL SURGE OF MOISTURE MAY OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
INCREASE FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
BURN SCARS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DRY AND VERY WARM DAY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EASTERN PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS ARE MAKING FOR A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND MILD...ASIDE FROM SOME
COOL READINGS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS.

SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY. SOME VIRGA SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD
FORM AS A RESULT...BUT MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE HARD TO COME BY FOR
ONE MORE DAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHEAST.

WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WE WILL GET OUR
FIRST DECENT MOISTURE SURGE ON THURSDAY...MAINLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY
AID IN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WE EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE GILA REGION.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS IT IN QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
GFS IS MUCH SLOWER...WAITING UNTIL SATURDAY. THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MEAN A SHARP
INCREASE IN CONVECTION FOR THE EAST. THIS COULD BE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
OR AS LATE AS SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE
SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE TO IMPACT NM. NO AREA WILL BE WITHOUT A
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PERHAPS THE BEST SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE SUPPORTING DEEP...TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING INTO AZ THEN NM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AND BELIEVE IT OR NOT...WE MAY BE SAYING HELLO
TO DOLLY A SECOND TIME IN SIX YEARS. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY CURRENTLY
IN THE WESTERN GULF MAY CROSS MEXICO BEFORE TURNING NORTH INTO AZ
SUNDAY THEN EAST INTO NM MONDAY. IF THIS PANS OUT...THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCAR AREAS. IT MUST BE POINTED OUT THAT THE
REMNANTS OF DOLLY IN 2008 TOOK A MUCH MORE DIRECT PATH INTO NM AND
WAS MORE ORGANIZED THAN WHAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE THIS TIME AROUND. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN
WEDNESDAY WHEN SPOTTY DRY THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER THE FORECAST. THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND AND
MONDAY WITH WETTING PRECIPITATION LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH BY THURSDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ON THE WEST COAST...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THAT TROUGH EASTWARD ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL CAUSE MONSOON MOISTURE TO SURGE
NORTHWARD WITH A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME ARCING OVER WESTERN...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY THURSDAY. ELEVATED MOISTURE MAY
INCREASE ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS AND WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AFTER POCKETS OF CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN VALLEYS WEDNESDAY...
THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DRAW MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIR INTO NM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY THURSDAY PWAT
VALUES SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR 1 INCH. ACCORDING TO THE GFS PWATS MAY
REACH AROUND 1.15 INCHES BY SUNDAY...THEN AROUND 1.3 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST MONDAYS SPIKE IN WESTERN PWATS MAY BE DUE IN LARGE
PART TO MOISTURE SPINNING NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OFF TROPICAL STORM
NORBERT. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CENTERED WELL OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.

MODELS ARE STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING WHEN A MOIST BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO EASTERN AREAS.  THE ECMWF FLIP FLOPPED
BACK TO THURSDAY WITH THIS FRONT. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
WENT WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING THE FRONT
IN ON SATURDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
WILL TREND DOWNWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY DUE TO THE MOISTURE INFLUX.
BY THE WEEKEND READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM NEAR NORMAL TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SIMILARLY...HAINES INDICES IN
THE 5 TO 6 RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER N CENTRAL AND NE AREAS THURSDAY...BEFORE
READINGS MODERATE AREAWIDE FRIDAY. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 022332
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
532 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER WEST TEXAS
NEXT 24 HOURS. SFC LEE TROUGH MAY DRAW HIGHER DEWPOINTS UP THE PECOS
VALLEY TO KROW VCNTY OVERNIGHT BUT NOT ANTICIPATING LOW CLOUDS AT
THIS TIME. THE SHIFT IN THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL ALLOW MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM THE CONTDVD TO THE TEXAS BORDER AFT
03/18Z. ISOLD CELLS OVER NE NM AT 02/23Z SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...320 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY WITH THE VERY WARM AND DRY PATTERN GIVING
WAY TO A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
FIRST NOTICEABLE INCREASE WILL BE THURSDAY ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE
EAST THIS WEEKEND. THE FINAL SURGE OF MOISTURE MAY OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
INCREASE FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
BURN SCARS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DRY AND VERY WARM DAY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EASTERN PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS ARE MAKING FOR A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND MILD...ASIDE FROM SOME
COOL READINGS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS.

SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY. SOME VIRGA SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD
FORM AS A RESULT...BUT MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE HARD TO COME BY FOR
ONE MORE DAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHEAST.

WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WE WILL GET OUR
FIRST DECENT MOISTURE SURGE ON THURSDAY...MAINLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY
AID IN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WE EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE GILA REGION.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS IT IN QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
GFS IS MUCH SLOWER...WAITING UNTIL SATURDAY. THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MEAN A SHARP
INCREASE IN CONVECTION FOR THE EAST. THIS COULD BE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
OR AS LATE AS SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE
SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE TO IMPACT NM. NO AREA WILL BE WITHOUT A
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PERHAPS THE BEST SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE SUPPORTING DEEP...TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING INTO AZ THEN NM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AND BELIEVE IT OR NOT...WE MAY BE SAYING HELLO
TO DOLLY A SECOND TIME IN SIX YEARS. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY CURRENTLY
IN THE WESTERN GULF MAY CROSS MEXICO BEFORE TURNING NORTH INTO AZ
SUNDAY THEN EAST INTO NM MONDAY. IF THIS PANS OUT...THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCAR AREAS. IT MUST BE POINTED OUT THAT THE
REMNANTS OF DOLLY IN 2008 TOOK A MUCH MORE DIRECT PATH INTO NM AND
WAS MORE ORGANIZED THAN WHAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE THIS TIME AROUND. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN
WEDNESDAY WHEN SPOTTY DRY THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER THE FORECAST. THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND AND
MONDAY WITH WETTING PRECIPITATION LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH BY THURSDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ON THE WEST COAST...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THAT TROUGH EASTWARD ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL CAUSE MONSOON MOISTURE TO SURGE
NORTHWARD WITH A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME ARCING OVER WESTERN...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY THURSDAY. ELEVATED MOISTURE MAY
INCREASE ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS AND WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AFTER POCKETS OF CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN VALLEYS WEDNESDAY...
THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DRAW MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIR INTO NM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY THURSDAY PWAT
VALUES SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR 1 INCH. ACCORDING TO THE GFS PWATS MAY
REACH AROUND 1.15 INCHES BY SUNDAY...THEN AROUND 1.3 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST MONDAYS SPIKE IN WESTERN PWATS MAY BE DUE IN LARGE
PART TO MOISTURE SPINNING NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OFF TROPICAL STORM
NORBERT. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CENTERED WELL OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.

MODELS ARE STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING WHEN A MOIST BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO EASTERN AREAS.  THE ECMWF FLIP FLOPPED
BACK TO THURSDAY WITH THIS FRONT. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
WENT WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING THE FRONT
IN ON SATURDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
WILL TREND DOWNWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY DUE TO THE MOISTURE INFLUX.
BY THE WEEKEND READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM NEAR NORMAL TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SIMILARLY...HAINES INDICES IN
THE 5 TO 6 RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER N CENTRAL AND NE AREAS THURSDAY...BEFORE
READINGS MODERATE AREAWIDE FRIDAY. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 022332
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
532 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER WEST TEXAS
NEXT 24 HOURS. SFC LEE TROUGH MAY DRAW HIGHER DEWPOINTS UP THE PECOS
VALLEY TO KROW VCNTY OVERNIGHT BUT NOT ANTICIPATING LOW CLOUDS AT
THIS TIME. THE SHIFT IN THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL ALLOW MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM THE CONTDVD TO THE TEXAS BORDER AFT
03/18Z. ISOLD CELLS OVER NE NM AT 02/23Z SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...320 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY WITH THE VERY WARM AND DRY PATTERN GIVING
WAY TO A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
FIRST NOTICEABLE INCREASE WILL BE THURSDAY ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE
EAST THIS WEEKEND. THE FINAL SURGE OF MOISTURE MAY OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
INCREASE FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
BURN SCARS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DRY AND VERY WARM DAY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EASTERN PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS ARE MAKING FOR A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND MILD...ASIDE FROM SOME
COOL READINGS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS.

SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY. SOME VIRGA SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD
FORM AS A RESULT...BUT MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE HARD TO COME BY FOR
ONE MORE DAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHEAST.

WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WE WILL GET OUR
FIRST DECENT MOISTURE SURGE ON THURSDAY...MAINLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY
AID IN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WE EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE GILA REGION.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS IT IN QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
GFS IS MUCH SLOWER...WAITING UNTIL SATURDAY. THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MEAN A SHARP
INCREASE IN CONVECTION FOR THE EAST. THIS COULD BE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
OR AS LATE AS SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE
SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE TO IMPACT NM. NO AREA WILL BE WITHOUT A
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PERHAPS THE BEST SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE SUPPORTING DEEP...TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING INTO AZ THEN NM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AND BELIEVE IT OR NOT...WE MAY BE SAYING HELLO
TO DOLLY A SECOND TIME IN SIX YEARS. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY CURRENTLY
IN THE WESTERN GULF MAY CROSS MEXICO BEFORE TURNING NORTH INTO AZ
SUNDAY THEN EAST INTO NM MONDAY. IF THIS PANS OUT...THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCAR AREAS. IT MUST BE POINTED OUT THAT THE
REMNANTS OF DOLLY IN 2008 TOOK A MUCH MORE DIRECT PATH INTO NM AND
WAS MORE ORGANIZED THAN WHAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE THIS TIME AROUND. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN
WEDNESDAY WHEN SPOTTY DRY THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER THE FORECAST. THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND AND
MONDAY WITH WETTING PRECIPITATION LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH BY THURSDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ON THE WEST COAST...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THAT TROUGH EASTWARD ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL CAUSE MONSOON MOISTURE TO SURGE
NORTHWARD WITH A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME ARCING OVER WESTERN...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY THURSDAY. ELEVATED MOISTURE MAY
INCREASE ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS AND WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AFTER POCKETS OF CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN VALLEYS WEDNESDAY...
THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DRAW MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIR INTO NM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY THURSDAY PWAT
VALUES SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR 1 INCH. ACCORDING TO THE GFS PWATS MAY
REACH AROUND 1.15 INCHES BY SUNDAY...THEN AROUND 1.3 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST MONDAYS SPIKE IN WESTERN PWATS MAY BE DUE IN LARGE
PART TO MOISTURE SPINNING NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OFF TROPICAL STORM
NORBERT. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CENTERED WELL OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.

MODELS ARE STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING WHEN A MOIST BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO EASTERN AREAS.  THE ECMWF FLIP FLOPPED
BACK TO THURSDAY WITH THIS FRONT. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
WENT WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING THE FRONT
IN ON SATURDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
WILL TREND DOWNWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY DUE TO THE MOISTURE INFLUX.
BY THE WEEKEND READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM NEAR NORMAL TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SIMILARLY...HAINES INDICES IN
THE 5 TO 6 RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER N CENTRAL AND NE AREAS THURSDAY...BEFORE
READINGS MODERATE AREAWIDE FRIDAY. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 022332
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
532 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OVER WEST TEXAS
NEXT 24 HOURS. SFC LEE TROUGH MAY DRAW HIGHER DEWPOINTS UP THE PECOS
VALLEY TO KROW VCNTY OVERNIGHT BUT NOT ANTICIPATING LOW CLOUDS AT
THIS TIME. THE SHIFT IN THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL ALLOW MID
LEVEL MOISTURE TO MOVE INTO THE REGION...AND MAY RESULT IN
ISOLATED CONVECTION FROM THE CONTDVD TO THE TEXAS BORDER AFT
03/18Z. ISOLD CELLS OVER NE NM AT 02/23Z SHOULD DISSIPATE BY
SUNSET.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...320 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY WITH THE VERY WARM AND DRY PATTERN GIVING
WAY TO A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
FIRST NOTICEABLE INCREASE WILL BE THURSDAY ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE
EAST THIS WEEKEND. THE FINAL SURGE OF MOISTURE MAY OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
INCREASE FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
BURN SCARS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DRY AND VERY WARM DAY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EASTERN PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS ARE MAKING FOR A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND MILD...ASIDE FROM SOME
COOL READINGS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS.

SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY. SOME VIRGA SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD
FORM AS A RESULT...BUT MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE HARD TO COME BY FOR
ONE MORE DAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHEAST.

WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WE WILL GET OUR
FIRST DECENT MOISTURE SURGE ON THURSDAY...MAINLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY
AID IN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WE EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE GILA REGION.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS IT IN QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
GFS IS MUCH SLOWER...WAITING UNTIL SATURDAY. THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MEAN A SHARP
INCREASE IN CONVECTION FOR THE EAST. THIS COULD BE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
OR AS LATE AS SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE
SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE TO IMPACT NM. NO AREA WILL BE WITHOUT A
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PERHAPS THE BEST SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE SUPPORTING DEEP...TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING INTO AZ THEN NM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AND BELIEVE IT OR NOT...WE MAY BE SAYING HELLO
TO DOLLY A SECOND TIME IN SIX YEARS. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY CURRENTLY
IN THE WESTERN GULF MAY CROSS MEXICO BEFORE TURNING NORTH INTO AZ
SUNDAY THEN EAST INTO NM MONDAY. IF THIS PANS OUT...THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCAR AREAS. IT MUST BE POINTED OUT THAT THE
REMNANTS OF DOLLY IN 2008 TOOK A MUCH MORE DIRECT PATH INTO NM AND
WAS MORE ORGANIZED THAN WHAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE THIS TIME AROUND. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN
WEDNESDAY WHEN SPOTTY DRY THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER THE FORECAST. THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND AND
MONDAY WITH WETTING PRECIPITATION LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH BY THURSDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ON THE WEST COAST...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THAT TROUGH EASTWARD ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL CAUSE MONSOON MOISTURE TO SURGE
NORTHWARD WITH A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME ARCING OVER WESTERN...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY THURSDAY. ELEVATED MOISTURE MAY
INCREASE ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS AND WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AFTER POCKETS OF CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN VALLEYS WEDNESDAY...
THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DRAW MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIR INTO NM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY THURSDAY PWAT
VALUES SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR 1 INCH. ACCORDING TO THE GFS PWATS MAY
REACH AROUND 1.15 INCHES BY SUNDAY...THEN AROUND 1.3 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST MONDAYS SPIKE IN WESTERN PWATS MAY BE DUE IN LARGE
PART TO MOISTURE SPINNING NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OFF TROPICAL STORM
NORBERT. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CENTERED WELL OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.

MODELS ARE STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING WHEN A MOIST BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO EASTERN AREAS.  THE ECMWF FLIP FLOPPED
BACK TO THURSDAY WITH THIS FRONT. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
WENT WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING THE FRONT
IN ON SATURDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
WILL TREND DOWNWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY DUE TO THE MOISTURE INFLUX.
BY THE WEEKEND READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM NEAR NORMAL TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SIMILARLY...HAINES INDICES IN
THE 5 TO 6 RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER N CENTRAL AND NE AREAS THURSDAY...BEFORE
READINGS MODERATE AREAWIDE FRIDAY. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 022120
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
320 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY WITH THE VERY WARM AND DRY PATTERN GIVING
WAY TO A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
FIRST NOTICEABLE INCREASE WILL BE THURSDAY ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE
EAST THIS WEEKEND. THE FINAL SURGE OF MOISTURE MAY OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
INCREASE FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
BURN SCARS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DRY AND VERY WARM DAY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EASTERN PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS ARE MAKING FOR A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND MILD...ASIDE FROM SOME
COOL READINGS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS.

SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY. SOME VIRGA SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD
FORM AS A RESULT...BUT MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE HARD TO COME BY FOR
ONE MORE DAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHEAST.

WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WE WILL GET OUR
FIRST DECENT MOISTURE SURGE ON THURSDAY...MAINLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY
AID IN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WE EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE GILA REGION.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS IT IN QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
GFS IS MUCH SLOWER...WAITING UNTIL SATURDAY. THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MEAN A SHARP
INCREASE IN CONVECTION FOR THE EAST. THIS COULD BE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
OR AS LATE AS SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE
SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE TO IMPACT NM. NO AREA WILL BE WITHOUT A
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PERHAPS THE BEST SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE SUPPORTING DEEP...TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING INTO AZ THEN NM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AND BELIEVE IT OR NOT...WE MAY BE SAYING HELLO
TO DOLLY A SECOND TIME IN SIX YEARS. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY CURRENTLY
IN THE WESTERN GULF MAY CROSS MEXICO BEFORE TURNING NORTH INTO AZ
SUNDAY THEN EAST INTO NM MONDAY. IF THIS PANS OUT...THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCAR AREAS. IT MUST BE POINTED OUT THAT THE
REMNANTS OF DOLLY IN 2008 TOOK A MUCH MORE DIRECT PATH INTO NM AND
WAS MORE ORGANIZED THAN WHAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE THIS TIME AROUND. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN
WEDNESDAY WHEN SPOTTY DRY THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER THE FORECAST. THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND AND
MONDAY WITH WETTING PRECIPITATION LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH BY THURSDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ON THE WEST COAST...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THAT TROUGH EASTWARD ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL CAUSE MONSOON MOISTURE TO SURGE
NORTHWARD WITH A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME ARCING OVER WESTERN...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY THURSDAY. ELEVATED MOISTURE MAY
INCREASE ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS AND WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AFTER POCKETS OF CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN VALLEYS WEDNESDAY...
THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DRAW MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIR INTO NM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY THURSDAY PWAT
VALUES SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR 1 INCH. ACCORDING TO THE GFS PWATS MAY
REACH AROUND 1.15 INCHES BY SUNDAY...THEN AROUND 1.3 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST MONDAYS SPIKE IN WESTERN PWATS MAY BE DUE IN LARGE
PART TO MOISTURE SPINNING NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OFF TROPICAL STORM
NORBERT. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CENTERED WELL OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.

MODELS ARE STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING WHEN A MOIST BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO EASTERN AREAS.  THE ECMWF FLIP FLOPPED
BACK TO THURSDAY WITH THIS FRONT. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
WENT WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING THE FRONT
IN ON SATURDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
WILL TREND DOWNWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY DUE TO THE MOISTURE INFLUX.
BY THE WEEKEND READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM NEAR NORMAL TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SIMILARLY...HAINES INDICES IN
THE 5 TO 6 RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER N CENTRAL AND NE AREAS THURSDAY...BEFORE
READINGS MODERATE AREAWIDE FRIDAY. 44

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SW SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVENT LOW CLOUDS FROM RETURNING. A FEW MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EASTWARD AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW EXITS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BETTER MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLD AND GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF MOUNTAINS AND SANGRES. A FEW OF
THESE CELLS COULD TRACK NEWD ONTO THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  54  91  56  88 /   0   0   0  10
DULCE...........................  44  88  47  85 /   0   0   0  10
CUBA............................  50  87  52  84 /   0   0   0  10
GALLUP..........................  49  87  51  82 /   0   0   0  10
EL MORRO........................  48  82  51  78 /   0   0   0  20
GRANTS..........................  50  86  54  81 /   0   0   0  10
QUEMADO.........................  51  84  53  80 /   0   5   5  20
GLENWOOD........................  55  90  56  88 /   0   5   5  20
CHAMA...........................  42  83  44  79 /   0   0   0  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  56  86  57  83 /   0   0   0  10
PECOS...........................  53  84  54  81 /   5   5   5  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  48  84  49  80 /   5   5   5  10
RED RIVER.......................  46  75  47  70 /   5   5   5  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  41  79  42  76 /   5  10   5  10
TAOS............................  47  87  48  83 /   0   0   5  10
MORA............................  50  85  51  81 /   5  10   5  10
ESPANOLA........................  54  91  56  88 /   0   0   0  10
SANTA FE........................  56  86  57  83 /   0   0   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  54  90  56  87 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  61  91  63  88 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  63  93  65  89 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  59  95  62  90 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  61  95  64  91 /   0   0   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  57  94  59  89 /   0   0   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  61  95  64  91 /   0   0   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  62  96  63  92 /   0   0   5  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  58  90  59  87 /   0   0   5  10
TIJERAS.........................  57  89  59  87 /   0   0   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  48  89  50  85 /   0   0   5  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  56  86  56  82 /   5   5   5  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  87  58  84 /   0   5   5  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  60  89  62  85 /   0   0   5  10
RUIDOSO.........................  56  84  56  79 /   0  10  10  20
CAPULIN.........................  56  89  55  83 /   5   5   5  10
RATON...........................  52  92  52  86 /   5   5   5  10
SPRINGER........................  53  93  54  87 /   5   5   5  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  87  54  82 /   5   5   5  10
CLAYTON.........................  63  95  63  89 /   5   5   5   5
ROY.............................  58  91  58  85 /   5   5   5  10
CONCHAS.........................  64  96  65  91 /   5   5   0   5
SANTA ROSA......................  62  94  63  89 /   0   5   0   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  98  66  94 /   0   5   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  63  94  63  90 /   5   0   0   5
PORTALES........................  64  94  64  91 /   0   0   0   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  94  65  90 /   0   5   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  65  96  66  94 /   0   0   5   5
PICACHO.........................  60  90  60  86 /   0   5   5  10
ELK.............................  58  86  58  80 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40





000
FXUS65 KABQ 022120
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
320 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
BIG CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY WITH THE VERY WARM AND DRY PATTERN GIVING
WAY TO A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE ALONG WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES. THE
FIRST NOTICEABLE INCREASE WILL BE THURSDAY ACROSS THE WEST AND
NORTH. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED MOISTURE TO THE
EAST THIS WEEKEND. THE FINAL SURGE OF MOISTURE MAY OCCUR EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
INCREASE FROM THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
BURN SCARS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER DRY AND VERY WARM DAY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO.
WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE EASTERN PLAINS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS ARE MAKING FOR A VERY
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM COULD DEVELOP.
OTHERWISE TONIGHT WILL BE MAINLY CLEAR AND MILD...ASIDE FROM SOME
COOL READINGS IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS.

SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY. SOME VIRGA SHOWERS OR STORMS COULD
FORM AS A RESULT...BUT MEASURABLE RAIN WILL BE HARD TO COME BY FOR
ONE MORE DAY. HIGHS WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL...WITH A NOTICEABLE
INCREASE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES OVER THE NORTHEAST.

WITH THE HIGH SHIFTING EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WE WILL GET OUR
FIRST DECENT MOISTURE SURGE ON THURSDAY...MAINLY IMPACTING THE
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE STATE. A WEAK SUBTROPICAL DISTURBANCE ALOFT MAY
AID IN THE MOISTURE TRANSPORT. WE EXPECT MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS THURSDAY...WITH SCATTERED ACTIVITY OVER THE GILA REGION.

MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS DIVERGE ON THE TIMING OF A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS IT IN QUICKLY THURSDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
GFS IS MUCH SLOWER...WAITING UNTIL SATURDAY. THE INCREASE IN LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT WILL MEAN A SHARP
INCREASE IN CONVECTION FOR THE EAST. THIS COULD BE AS EARLY AS FRIDAY
OR AS LATE AS SATURDAY EVENING AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BE THE
SECOND SURGE OF MOISTURE TO IMPACT NM. NO AREA WILL BE WITHOUT A
CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.

PERHAPS THE BEST SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL COME EARLY NEXT WEEK. MODELS
ARE SUPPORTING DEEP...TROPICAL MOISTURE COMING INTO AZ THEN NM
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. AND BELIEVE IT OR NOT...WE MAY BE SAYING HELLO
TO DOLLY A SECOND TIME IN SIX YEARS. TROPICAL STORM DOLLY CURRENTLY
IN THE WESTERN GULF MAY CROSS MEXICO BEFORE TURNING NORTH INTO AZ
SUNDAY THEN EAST INTO NM MONDAY. IF THIS PANS OUT...THE POTENTIAL
FOR HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOODING WILL SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASE...
ESPECIALLY OVER BURN SCAR AREAS. IT MUST BE POINTED OUT THAT THE
REMNANTS OF DOLLY IN 2008 TOOK A MUCH MORE DIRECT PATH INTO NM AND
WAS MORE ORGANIZED THAN WHAT WE WILL EXPERIENCE THIS TIME AROUND. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WILL BEGIN
WEDNESDAY WHEN SPOTTY DRY THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER THE FORECAST. THE
MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND AND
MONDAY WITH WETTING PRECIPITATION LIKELY ACROSS MUCH OF
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA.

A DRY WEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH BY THURSDAY AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH DEEPENS ON THE WEST COAST...A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THAT TROUGH EASTWARD ALONG THE
US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. THIS WILL CAUSE MONSOON MOISTURE TO SURGE
NORTHWARD WITH A MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME ARCING OVER WESTERN...
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS BY THURSDAY. ELEVATED MOISTURE MAY
INCREASE ENOUGH FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF MAINLY DRY AND GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING IN THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS AND WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS. AFTER POCKETS OF CRITICALLY
LOW HUMIDITIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN VALLEYS WEDNESDAY...
THE DEVELOPING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST WILL DRAW MOIST LOW
LEVEL AIR INTO NM THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BY THURSDAY PWAT
VALUES SHOULD CLIMB TO NEAR 1 INCH. ACCORDING TO THE GFS PWATS MAY
REACH AROUND 1.15 INCHES BY SUNDAY...THEN AROUND 1.3 INCHES ACROSS
MUCH OF THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA ON MONDAY. GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST MONDAYS SPIKE IN WESTERN PWATS MAY BE DUE IN LARGE
PART TO MOISTURE SPINNING NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OFF TROPICAL STORM
NORBERT. HOWEVER...THE LATEST MODEL RUNS OF THE GFS AND ECMWF KEEP
THE TROPICAL SYSTEM CENTERED WELL OFF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST.

MODELS ARE STILL HAVING DIFFICULTY RESOLVING WHEN A MOIST BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO EASTERN AREAS.  THE ECMWF FLIP FLOPPED
BACK TO THURSDAY WITH THIS FRONT. THE CURRENT FORECAST PACKAGE
WENT WITH THE MORE CONSISTENT GFS WHICH CONTINUES TO BRING THE FRONT
IN ON SATURDAY.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL WEDNESDAY
WILL TREND DOWNWARD BEGINNING THURSDAY DUE TO THE MOISTURE INFLUX.
BY THE WEEKEND READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM NEAR NORMAL TO POTENTIALLY
SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE. SIMILARLY...HAINES INDICES IN
THE 5 TO 6 RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO PLAGUE MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY...THEN LINGER OVER N CENTRAL AND NE AREAS THURSDAY...BEFORE
READINGS MODERATE AREAWIDE FRIDAY. 44

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SW SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THE
DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVENT LOW CLOUDS FROM RETURNING. A FEW MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING A STRAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTN FROM THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EASTWARD AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL
PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW EXITS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BETTER MOISTURE
WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLD AND GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS
EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTHERN TIER OF MOUNTAINS AND SANGRES. A FEW OF
THESE CELLS COULD TRACK NEWD ONTO THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  54  91  56  88 /   0   0   0  10
DULCE...........................  44  88  47  85 /   0   0   0  10
CUBA............................  50  87  52  84 /   0   0   0  10
GALLUP..........................  49  87  51  82 /   0   0   0  10
EL MORRO........................  48  82  51  78 /   0   0   0  20
GRANTS..........................  50  86  54  81 /   0   0   0  10
QUEMADO.........................  51  84  53  80 /   0   5   5  20
GLENWOOD........................  55  90  56  88 /   0   5   5  20
CHAMA...........................  42  83  44  79 /   0   0   0  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  56  86  57  83 /   0   0   0  10
PECOS...........................  53  84  54  81 /   5   5   5  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  48  84  49  80 /   5   5   5  10
RED RIVER.......................  46  75  47  70 /   5   5   5  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  41  79  42  76 /   5  10   5  10
TAOS............................  47  87  48  83 /   0   0   5  10
MORA............................  50  85  51  81 /   5  10   5  10
ESPANOLA........................  54  91  56  88 /   0   0   0  10
SANTA FE........................  56  86  57  83 /   0   0   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  54  90  56  87 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  61  91  63  88 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  63  93  65  89 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  59  95  62  90 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  61  95  64  91 /   0   0   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  57  94  59  89 /   0   0   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  61  95  64  91 /   0   0   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  62  96  63  92 /   0   0   5  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  58  90  59  87 /   0   0   5  10
TIJERAS.........................  57  89  59  87 /   0   0   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  48  89  50  85 /   0   0   5  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  56  86  56  82 /   5   5   5  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  87  58  84 /   0   5   5  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  60  89  62  85 /   0   0   5  10
RUIDOSO.........................  56  84  56  79 /   0  10  10  20
CAPULIN.........................  56  89  55  83 /   5   5   5  10
RATON...........................  52  92  52  86 /   5   5   5  10
SPRINGER........................  53  93  54  87 /   5   5   5  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  87  54  82 /   5   5   5  10
CLAYTON.........................  63  95  63  89 /   5   5   5   5
ROY.............................  58  91  58  85 /   5   5   5  10
CONCHAS.........................  64  96  65  91 /   5   5   0   5
SANTA ROSA......................  62  94  63  89 /   0   5   0   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  66  98  66  94 /   0   5   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  63  94  63  90 /   5   0   0   5
PORTALES........................  64  94  64  91 /   0   0   0   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  94  65  90 /   0   5   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  65  96  66  94 /   0   0   5   5
PICACHO.........................  60  90  60  86 /   0   5   5  10
ELK.............................  58  86  58  80 /   0  10  10  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40






000
FXUS65 KABQ 021758 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1158 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
RETREAT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AREAWIDE BY MID AFTERNOON. SW SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVENT LOW
CLOUDS FROM RETURNING. A FEW MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS EASTWARD AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW EXITS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BETTER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLD AND
GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF MOUNTAINS AND SANGRES. A FEW OF THESE CELLS COULD
TRACK NEWD ONTO THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A SUNNY AND DRY TUESDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A MUCH WETTER AND MORE
SHOWERY ENDING TO THE WORK WEEK THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
HEAVY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUING
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...HIGH AND DRY WITH RIDGE CORE OVER THE BOOT HEEL...AND
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE GRAZING NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO. SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DRAGGING WEAK COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS INTERSTATE 40...BUT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE AND MODEST WIND SHIFT EVIDENCE IS ALL THAT SHOWS UP AS
THIS FEATURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND ACROSS
THE FIRST HALF OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. RIDGE SPRAWLED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH ELONGATE CORE STRETCHING FROM
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ACROSS TEXAS...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WILL CONSOLIDATE EASTWARD WITH CORE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
WEDNESDAY MORNING...NEAR MEMPHIS ON THURSDAY...AND BACK OVER THE
EAST TEXAS PINEY WOODS COUNTRY BY FRIDAY. ACTION WILL OPEN WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE FOR NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR THE
LAST OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE PUSH WILL BE
AIDED AND ABETTED BY TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SETTING UP OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WHICH WILL DRIFT NORTH TO CABO SAN
LAZARO HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND THEN WILL DRIFT WESTWARD OUT
OF THE PICTURE INTO THE EAST PACIFIC BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. AWAY
FROM THE TROPICS...PERSISTENT TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL MAKE VERY SLOW DIG INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEAVING NEW MEXICO ON WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH A TROUGH LURKING UPSTREAM. SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIG TROUGH TO THE FOUR
CORNERS BY EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN INTO THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK.

FOR TODAY...A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE EAST...FORCING A
THERMODYNAMIC RETREAT FROM RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. RIDGE CORE OVER THE
BOOT HEEL AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE STATE WILL PRESENT A DRY AND SUNNY DAY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS
ONLY OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER. SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL SHIFT TO THE BIG BEND COUNTRY...AND IMPART A
SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE CORE RETREATS TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...ALLOWING THE FIRST
SIGNS OF NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TO REACH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE SPOTTY RAIN CHANCES FOR CATRON COUNTY...AND A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS AND SLOPES IN LINCOLN COUNTY. SURFACE TROUGH
TAKING SHAPE FROM WESTERN KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO ITS
COMPANION SURFACE LOW OVER THE BIG BEND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE. BOTTOM LINE FOR ANY STORM WILL BE A PAUCITY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND WILL CARRY THESE AS DRY THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. EASTERN SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO SUPPORT
SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

FOR THURSDAY...RIDGE CORE RETREATING FURTHER EASTWARD AS ELONGATE
SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS ACROSS THE HEART OF NEW
MEXICO TO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
COMBINED WITH UP SLOPE FLOW AND SOME DYNAMICS ALOFT ON THE WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE WILL HELP EXPAND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WITH COVERAGE
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME MORE GENERAL AND WIDESPREAD THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND CATRON
COUNTY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OVER THE EAST...WITH
BREEZES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN A MORE DYNAMICALLY ACTIVE PATTERN.
CLOUD COVER AND FALLING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF RIDGE RETREAT WILL
ALSO KNOCK A HANDFUL OF DEGREES OFF THE TOP OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY...WITH MOST SPOTS RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER NORMALS.

FOR FRIDAY...RIDGE CORE REMAINING WELL EAST OF NEW MEXICO AS
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO...HELPED OUT BY TROPICAL SYSTEM CREEPING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. WIDESPREAD SHOWER
COVERAGE ON TAP TO WIND UP THE WORK WEEK..WITH NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS FAVORED...ALONG WITH THE SUMMITS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND SOMEWHAT REDUCED ACTIVITY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON FRIDAY FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
STATE...WITH SPECIAL ATTENTION TO BURN SCARS. A FEW MORE DEGREES
COOLING WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. SURFACE WINDS WILL RUN A FEW KNOTS
BELOW THOSE OBSERVED THURSDAY IN WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERY PATTERN AND COOLING
TREND CONTINUING AS WESTERN MARGINS OF THE RIDGE CORE DANCE WITH
THE REMAINS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFTING OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
COLD FRONT WILL INVADE NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY TO ENHANCE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NORTH. FRONT WILL HAVE
LITTLE STAYING POWER...WITH BACKED EASTERLY WINDS VEERING BACK TO
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY TO RETURN TO MOISTURE ADVECTION DUTY. FAVORED
AREAS SUNDAY WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AND BLANKET THE
WEST...WITH ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC CHALLENGE TO BURN SCAR AREAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTCOMES
FOR MONDAY...AS SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL EXPANDS
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AS RIDGE CORE REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF
NEW MEXICO...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM EASTERN COLORADO
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND...AND NORTHBOUND
PLUME OF MOISTURE SLUICES INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BUT MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL
DRIFT NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT TODAY. A FEW MORE CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY AS MOISTURE JUST ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL SEEPS INTO
THE STATE. MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD LATE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO SEEP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE STATE
WEDNESDAY. MODEL LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS INDICATING THAT
MAINLY TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL RESULT WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER...MODERATE SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE IN FROM WEST TX AND UP TO THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES...MAKING STORMS THERE SOMEWHAT WET. A DRY STORM OR TWO MAY
RESULT FROM THE NE HIGHLANDS NEAR LAS VEGAS SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS NEAR CLINES CORNERS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY TAKE SOME
TIME TO WORK WESTWARD INTO HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH EASTWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME MOVES UP FROM SE
ARIZONA THURSDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BACKDOOR FRONT GETS INTO THE MIX FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...HELPING TO INITIATE STORMS FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES EAST OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. GFS INDICATING THAT DRIER AIR
ALOFT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN CHECK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HIGH THURSDAY THROUGH APPROXIMATELY NEXT
TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS WILL
ALLOW STRONG DRY NWLY WINDS TO END THE SOUTHERLY IMPORT OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 021758 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1158 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
A PATCH OF LOW CLOUDS PRODUCING MVFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
RETREAT ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN PLAINS WITH VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED
AREAWIDE BY MID AFTERNOON. SW SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND THE DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL PREVENT LOW
CLOUDS FROM RETURNING. A FEW MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A STRAY SHOWER
OR THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTN FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS EASTWARD AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL PERTURBATION IN THE FLOW EXITS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. BETTER MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE
AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY WITH ISOLD AND
GUSTY VIRGA SHOWERS AND DRY THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF MOUNTAINS AND SANGRES. A FEW OF THESE CELLS COULD
TRACK NEWD ONTO THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A SUNNY AND DRY TUESDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A MUCH WETTER AND MORE
SHOWERY ENDING TO THE WORK WEEK THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
HEAVY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUING
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...HIGH AND DRY WITH RIDGE CORE OVER THE BOOT HEEL...AND
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE GRAZING NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO. SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DRAGGING WEAK COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS INTERSTATE 40...BUT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE AND MODEST WIND SHIFT EVIDENCE IS ALL THAT SHOWS UP AS
THIS FEATURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND ACROSS
THE FIRST HALF OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. RIDGE SPRAWLED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH ELONGATE CORE STRETCHING FROM
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ACROSS TEXAS...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WILL CONSOLIDATE EASTWARD WITH CORE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
WEDNESDAY MORNING...NEAR MEMPHIS ON THURSDAY...AND BACK OVER THE
EAST TEXAS PINEY WOODS COUNTRY BY FRIDAY. ACTION WILL OPEN WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE FOR NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR THE
LAST OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE PUSH WILL BE
AIDED AND ABETTED BY TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SETTING UP OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WHICH WILL DRIFT NORTH TO CABO SAN
LAZARO HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND THEN WILL DRIFT WESTWARD OUT
OF THE PICTURE INTO THE EAST PACIFIC BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. AWAY
FROM THE TROPICS...PERSISTENT TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL MAKE VERY SLOW DIG INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEAVING NEW MEXICO ON WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH A TROUGH LURKING UPSTREAM. SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIG TROUGH TO THE FOUR
CORNERS BY EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN INTO THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK.

FOR TODAY...A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE EAST...FORCING A
THERMODYNAMIC RETREAT FROM RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. RIDGE CORE OVER THE
BOOT HEEL AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE STATE WILL PRESENT A DRY AND SUNNY DAY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS
ONLY OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER. SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL SHIFT TO THE BIG BEND COUNTRY...AND IMPART A
SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE CORE RETREATS TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...ALLOWING THE FIRST
SIGNS OF NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TO REACH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE SPOTTY RAIN CHANCES FOR CATRON COUNTY...AND A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS AND SLOPES IN LINCOLN COUNTY. SURFACE TROUGH
TAKING SHAPE FROM WESTERN KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO ITS
COMPANION SURFACE LOW OVER THE BIG BEND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE. BOTTOM LINE FOR ANY STORM WILL BE A PAUCITY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND WILL CARRY THESE AS DRY THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. EASTERN SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO SUPPORT
SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

FOR THURSDAY...RIDGE CORE RETREATING FURTHER EASTWARD AS ELONGATE
SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS ACROSS THE HEART OF NEW
MEXICO TO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
COMBINED WITH UP SLOPE FLOW AND SOME DYNAMICS ALOFT ON THE WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE WILL HELP EXPAND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WITH COVERAGE
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME MORE GENERAL AND WIDESPREAD THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND CATRON
COUNTY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OVER THE EAST...WITH
BREEZES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN A MORE DYNAMICALLY ACTIVE PATTERN.
CLOUD COVER AND FALLING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF RIDGE RETREAT WILL
ALSO KNOCK A HANDFUL OF DEGREES OFF THE TOP OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY...WITH MOST SPOTS RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER NORMALS.

FOR FRIDAY...RIDGE CORE REMAINING WELL EAST OF NEW MEXICO AS
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO...HELPED OUT BY TROPICAL SYSTEM CREEPING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. WIDESPREAD SHOWER
COVERAGE ON TAP TO WIND UP THE WORK WEEK..WITH NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS FAVORED...ALONG WITH THE SUMMITS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND SOMEWHAT REDUCED ACTIVITY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON FRIDAY FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
STATE...WITH SPECIAL ATTENTION TO BURN SCARS. A FEW MORE DEGREES
COOLING WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. SURFACE WINDS WILL RUN A FEW KNOTS
BELOW THOSE OBSERVED THURSDAY IN WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERY PATTERN AND COOLING
TREND CONTINUING AS WESTERN MARGINS OF THE RIDGE CORE DANCE WITH
THE REMAINS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFTING OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
COLD FRONT WILL INVADE NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY TO ENHANCE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NORTH. FRONT WILL HAVE
LITTLE STAYING POWER...WITH BACKED EASTERLY WINDS VEERING BACK TO
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY TO RETURN TO MOISTURE ADVECTION DUTY. FAVORED
AREAS SUNDAY WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AND BLANKET THE
WEST...WITH ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC CHALLENGE TO BURN SCAR AREAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTCOMES
FOR MONDAY...AS SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL EXPANDS
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AS RIDGE CORE REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF
NEW MEXICO...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM EASTERN COLORADO
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND...AND NORTHBOUND
PLUME OF MOISTURE SLUICES INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BUT MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL
DRIFT NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT TODAY. A FEW MORE CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY AS MOISTURE JUST ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL SEEPS INTO
THE STATE. MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD LATE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO SEEP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE STATE
WEDNESDAY. MODEL LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS INDICATING THAT
MAINLY TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL RESULT WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER...MODERATE SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE IN FROM WEST TX AND UP TO THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES...MAKING STORMS THERE SOMEWHAT WET. A DRY STORM OR TWO MAY
RESULT FROM THE NE HIGHLANDS NEAR LAS VEGAS SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS NEAR CLINES CORNERS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY TAKE SOME
TIME TO WORK WESTWARD INTO HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH EASTWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME MOVES UP FROM SE
ARIZONA THURSDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BACKDOOR FRONT GETS INTO THE MIX FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...HELPING TO INITIATE STORMS FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES EAST OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. GFS INDICATING THAT DRIER AIR
ALOFT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN CHECK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HIGH THURSDAY THROUGH APPROXIMATELY NEXT
TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS WILL
ALLOW STRONG DRY NWLY WINDS TO END THE SOUTHERLY IMPORT OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 021157 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
557 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL HIGH STARTING TO STRENGTHEN AND BUILD NORTHWARD INTO SRN
NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING. BACKDOOR SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NEAR
KROW TO KRTN WILL CONTINUE TO EDGE WWD TO NEAR KCQC BY ABOUT 15Z.
DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED MARKEDLY BEHIND THE BOUNDARY WITH AREAS
OF IFR CIGS NE OF A LINE FROM KRTN TO NEAR KCVS THROUGH
APPROX 18Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL
PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A SUNNY AND DRY TUESDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A MUCH WETTER AND MORE
SHOWERY ENDING TO THE WORK WEEK THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
HEAVY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUING
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...HIGH AND DRY WITH RIDGE CORE OVER THE BOOT HEEL...AND
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE GRAZING NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO. SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DRAGGING WEAK COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS INTERSTATE 40...BUT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE AND MODEST WIND SHIFT EVIDENCE IS ALL THAT SHOWS UP AS
THIS FEATURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND ACROSS
THE FIRST HALF OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. RIDGE SPRAWLED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH ELONGATE CORE STRETCHING FROM
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ACROSS TEXAS...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WILL CONSOLIDATE EASTWARD WITH CORE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
WEDNESDAY MORNING...NEAR MEMPHIS ON THURSDAY...AND BACK OVER THE
EAST TEXAS PINEY WOODS COUNTRY BY FRIDAY. ACTION WILL OPEN WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE FOR NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR THE
LAST OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE PUSH WILL BE
AIDED AND ABETTED BY TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SETTING UP OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WHICH WILL DRIFT NORTH TO CABO SAN
LAZARO HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND THEN WILL DRIFT WESTWARD OUT
OF THE PICTURE INTO THE EAST PACIFIC BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. AWAY
FROM THE TROPICS...PERSISTENT TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL MAKE VERY SLOW DIG INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEAVING NEW MEXICO ON WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH A TROUGH LURKING UPSTREAM. SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIG TROUGH TO THE FOUR
CORNERS BY EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN INTO THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK.

FOR TODAY...A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE EAST...FORCING A
THERMODYNAMIC RETREAT FROM RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. RIDGE CORE OVER THE
BOOT HEEL AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE STATE WILL PRESENT A DRY AND SUNNY DAY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS
ONLY OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER. SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL SHIFT TO THE BIG BEND COUNTRY...AND IMPART A
SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE CORE RETREATS TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...ALLOWING THE FIRST
SIGNS OF NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TO REACH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE SPOTTY RAIN CHANCES FOR CATRON COUNTY...AND A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS AND SLOPES IN LINCOLN COUNTY. SURFACE TROUGH
TAKING SHAPE FROM WESTERN KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO ITS
COMPANION SURFACE LOW OVER THE BIG BEND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE. BOTTOM LINE FOR ANY STORM WILL BE A PAUCITY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND WILL CARRY THESE AS DRY THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. EASTERN SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO SUPPORT
SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

FOR THURSDAY...RIDGE CORE RETREATING FURTHER EASTWARD AS ELONGATE
SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS ACROSS THE HEART OF NEW
MEXICO TO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
COMBINED WITH UP SLOPE FLOW AND SOME DYNAMICS ALOFT ON THE WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE WILL HELP EXPAND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WITH COVERAGE
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME MORE GENERAL AND WIDESPREAD THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND CATRON
COUNTY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OVER THE EAST...WITH
BREEZES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN A MORE DYNAMICALLY ACTIVE PATTERN.
CLOUD COVER AND FALLING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF RIDGE RETREAT WILL
ALSO KNOCK A HANDFUL OF DEGREES OFF THE TOP OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY...WITH MOST SPOTS RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER NORMALS.

FOR FRIDAY...RIDGE CORE REMAINING WELL EAST OF NEW MEXICO AS
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO...HELPED OUT BY TROPICAL SYSTEM CREEPING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. WIDESPREAD SHOWER
COVERAGE ON TAP TO WIND UP THE WORK WEEK..WITH NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS FAVORED...ALONG WITH THE SUMMITS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND SOMEWHAT REDUCED ACTIVITY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON FRIDAY FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
STATE...WITH SPECIAL ATTENTION TO BURN SCARS. A FEW MORE DEGREES
COOLING WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. SURFACE WINDS WILL RUN A FEW KNOTS
BELOW THOSE OBSERVED THURSDAY IN WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERY PATTERN AND COOLING
TREND CONTINUING AS WESTERN MARGINS OF THE RIDGE CORE DANCE WITH
THE REMAINS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFTING OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
COLD FRONT WILL INVADE NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY TO ENHANCE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NORTH. FRONT WILL HAVE
LITTLE STAYING POWER...WITH BACKED EASTERLY WINDS VEERING BACK TO
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY TO RETURN TO MOISTURE ADVECTION DUTY. FAVORED
AREAS SUNDAY WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AND BLANKET THE
WEST...WITH ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC CHALLENGE TO BURN SCAR AREAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTCOMES
FOR MONDAY...AS SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL EXPANDS
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AS RIDGE CORE REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF
NEW MEXICO...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM EASTERN COLORADO
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND...AND NORTHBOUND
PLUME OF MOISTURE SLUICES INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BUT MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL
DRIFT NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT TODAY. A FEW MORE CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY AS MOISTURE JUST ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL SEEPS INTO
THE STATE. MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD LATE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO SEEP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE STATE
WEDNESDAY. MODEL LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS INDICATING THAT
MAINLY TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL RESULT WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER...MODERATE SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE IN FROM WEST TX AND UP TO THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES...MAKING STORMS THERE SOMEWHAT WET. A DRY STORM OR TWO MAY
RESULT FROM THE NE HIGHLANDS NEAR LAS VEGAS SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS NEAR CLINES CORNERS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY TAKE SOME
TIME TO WORK WESTWARD INTO HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH EASTWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME MOVES UP FROM SE
ARIZONA THURSDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BACKDOOR FRONT GETS INTO THE MIX FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...HELPING TO INITIATE STORMS FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES EAST OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. GFS INDICATING THAT DRIER AIR
ALOFT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN CHECK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HIGH THURSDAY THROUGH APPROXIMATELY NEXT
TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS WILL
ALLOW STRONG DRY NWLY WINDS TO END THE SOUTHERLY IMPORT OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHY












000
FXUS65 KABQ 020852
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
252 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SUNNY AND DRY TUESDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A MUCH WETTER AND MORE
SHOWERY ENDING TO THE WORK WEEK THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
HEAVY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUING
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...HIGH AND DRY WITH RIDGE CORE OVER THE BOOT HEEL...AND
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE GRAZING NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO. SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DRAGGING WEAK COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS INTERSTATE 40...BUT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE AND MODEST WIND SHIFT EVIDENCE IS ALL THAT SHOWS UP AS
THIS FEATURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND ACROSS
THE FIRST HALF OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. RIDGE SPRAWLED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH ELONGATE CORE STRETCHING FROM
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ACROSS TEXAS...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WILL CONSOLIDATE EASTWARD WITH CORE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
WEDNESDAY MORNING...NEAR MEMPHIS ON THURSDAY...AND BACK OVER THE
EAST TEXAS PINEY WOODS COUNTRY BY FRIDAY. ACTION WILL OPEN WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE FOR NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR THE
LAST OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE PUSH WILL BE
AIDED AND ABETTED BY TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SETTING UP OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WHICH WILL DRIFT NORTH TO CABO SAN
LAZARO HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND THEN WILL DRIFT WESTWARD OUT
OF THE PICTURE INTO THE EAST PACIFIC BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. AWAY
FROM THE TROPICS...PERSISTENT TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL MAKE VERY SLOW DIG INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEAVING NEW MEXICO ON WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH A TROUGH LURKING UPSTREAM. SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIG TROUGH TO THE FOUR
CORNERS BY EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN INTO THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK.

FOR TODAY...A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE EAST...FORCING A
THERMODYNAMIC RETREAT FROM RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. RIDGE CORE OVER THE
BOOT HEEL AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE STATE WILL PRESENT A DRY AND SUNNY DAY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS
ONLY OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER. SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL SHIFT TO THE BIG BEND COUNTRY...AND IMPART A
SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE CORE RETREATS TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...ALLOWING THE FIRST
SIGNS OF NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TO REACH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE SPOTTY RAIN CHANCES FOR CATRON COUNTY...AND A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS AND SLOPES IN LINCOLN COUNTY. SURFACE TROUGH
TAKING SHAPE FROM WESTERN KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO ITS
COMPANION SURFACE LOW OVER THE BIG BEND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE. BOTTOM LINE FOR ANY STORM WILL BE A PAUCITY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND WILL CARRY THESE AS DRY THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. EASTERN SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO SUPPORT
SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

FOR THURSDAY...RIDGE CORE RETREATING FURTHER EASTWARD AS ELONGATE
SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS ACROSS THE HEART OF NEW
MEXICO TO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
COMBINED WITH UP SLOPE FLOW AND SOME DYNAMICS ALOFT ON THE WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE WILL HELP EXPAND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WITH COVERAGE
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME MORE GENERAL AND WIDESPREAD THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND CATRON
COUNTY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OVER THE EAST...WITH
BREEZES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN A MORE DYNAMICALLY ACTIVE PATTERN.
CLOUD COVER AND FALLING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF RIDGE RETREAT WILL
ALSO KNOCK A HANDFUL OF DEGREES OFF THE TOP OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY...WITH MOST SPOTS RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER NORMALS.

FOR FRIDAY...RIDGE CORE REMAINING WELL EAST OF NEW MEXICO AS
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO...HELPED OUT BY TROPICAL SYSTEM CREEPING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. WIDESPREAD SHOWER
COVERAGE ON TAP TO WIND UP THE WORK WEEK..WITH NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS FAVORED...ALONG WITH THE SUMMITS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND SOMEWHAT REDUCED ACTIVITY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON FRIDAY FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
STATE...WITH SPECIAL ATTENTION TO BURN SCARS. A FEW MORE DEGREES
COOLING WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. SURFACE WINDS WILL RUN A FEW KNOTS
BELOW THOSE OBSERVED THURSDAY IN WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERY PATTERN AND COOLING
TREND CONTINUING AS WESTERN MARGINS OF THE RIDGE CORE DANCE WITH
THE REMAINS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFTING OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
COLD FRONT WILL INVADE NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY TO ENHANCE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NORTH. FRONT WILL HAVE
LITTLE STAYING POWER...WITH BACKED EASTERLY WINDS VEERING BACK TO
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY TO RETURN TO MOISTURE ADVECTION DUTY. FAVORED
AREAS SUNDAY WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AND BLANKET THE
WEST...WITH ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC CHALLENGE TO BURN SCAR AREAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTCOMES
FOR MONDAY...AS SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL EXPANDS
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AS RIDGE CORE REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF
NEW MEXICO...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM EASTERN COLORADO
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND...AND NORTHBOUND
PLUME OF MOISTURE SLUICES INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BUT MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL
DRIFT NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT TODAY. A FEW MORE CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY AS MOISTURE JUST ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL SEEPS INTO
THE STATE. MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD LATE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO SEEP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE STATE
WEDNESDAY. MODEL LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS INDICATING THAT
MAINLY TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL RESULT WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER...MODERATE SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE IN FROM WEST TX AND UP TO THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES...MAKING STORMS THERE SOMEWHAT WET. A DRY STORM OR TWO MAY
RESULT FROM THE NE HIGHLANDS NEAR LAS VEGAS SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS NEAR CLINES CORNERS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY TAKE SOME
TIME TO WORK WESTWARD INTO HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH EASTWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME MOVES UP FROM SE
ARIZONA THURSDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BACKDOOR FRONT GETS INTO THE MIX FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...HELPING TO INITIATE STORMS FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES EAST OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. GFS INDICATING THAT DRIER AIR
ALOFT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN CHECK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HIGH THURSDAY THROUGH APPROXIMATELY NEXT
TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS WILL
ALLOW STRONG DRY NWLY WINDS TO END THE SOUTHERLY IMPORT OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WEAKENING WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW
MEXICO. SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NEAR KCVS TO NEAR KRTN WILL
SAG SOUTH AND WESTWARD REACHING KROW VCNTY AROUND 12Z. DEW POINTS
TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KRTN TO KCVS 10Z-16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  92  55  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  87  45  87  47 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  87  51  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  88  49  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  83  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  87  51  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  85  51  84  53 /   0   0   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  91  55  90  56 /   0   0   0   5
CHAMA...........................  82  43  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  85  57  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  84  55  84  54 /   5   5   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  82  49  84  49 /   0   0   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  73  47  75  48 /   5   5   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  78  43  79  43 /   5   5   5   5
TAOS............................  86  47  87  49 /   0   0   0   5
MORA............................  82  51  84  51 /   5   5  10   5
ESPANOLA........................  91  55  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  86  56  85  57 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  89  54  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  90  61  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  92  65  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  93  62  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  93  63  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  92  60  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  93  63  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  96  63  96  63 /   0   0   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  89  58  89  59 /   0   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  89  58  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  88  51  88  53 /   0   0   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  86  57  86  56 /   0   5   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  88  58  87  58 /   0   0   5   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  91  62  89  62 /   0   0   0   5
RUIDOSO.........................  85  57  84  56 /   5   0  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  84  56  88  55 /   5   5   5   5
RATON...........................  88  52  91  52 /   5   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  89  53  92  54 /   5   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  86  54  87  54 /   5   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  88  62  95  63 /   5   5   5   5
ROY.............................  86  59  90  58 /   5   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  92  65  96  65 /   5   5   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  92  63  94  63 /   0   0   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  95  67  98  66 /   5   0   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  94  64  94  63 /   0   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  95  65  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  95  65  94  65 /   0   0   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  98  68  96  67 /   0   0   0   5
PICACHO.........................  92  61  90  60 /   0   0   5   5
ELK.............................  87  59  85  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHY









000
FXUS65 KABQ 020852
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
252 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SUNNY AND DRY TUESDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A MUCH WETTER AND MORE
SHOWERY ENDING TO THE WORK WEEK THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
HEAVY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUING
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...HIGH AND DRY WITH RIDGE CORE OVER THE BOOT HEEL...AND
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE GRAZING NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO. SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DRAGGING WEAK COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS INTERSTATE 40...BUT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE AND MODEST WIND SHIFT EVIDENCE IS ALL THAT SHOWS UP AS
THIS FEATURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND ACROSS
THE FIRST HALF OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. RIDGE SPRAWLED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH ELONGATE CORE STRETCHING FROM
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ACROSS TEXAS...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WILL CONSOLIDATE EASTWARD WITH CORE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
WEDNESDAY MORNING...NEAR MEMPHIS ON THURSDAY...AND BACK OVER THE
EAST TEXAS PINEY WOODS COUNTRY BY FRIDAY. ACTION WILL OPEN WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE FOR NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR THE
LAST OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE PUSH WILL BE
AIDED AND ABETTED BY TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SETTING UP OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WHICH WILL DRIFT NORTH TO CABO SAN
LAZARO HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND THEN WILL DRIFT WESTWARD OUT
OF THE PICTURE INTO THE EAST PACIFIC BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. AWAY
FROM THE TROPICS...PERSISTENT TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL MAKE VERY SLOW DIG INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEAVING NEW MEXICO ON WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH A TROUGH LURKING UPSTREAM. SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIG TROUGH TO THE FOUR
CORNERS BY EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN INTO THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK.

FOR TODAY...A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE EAST...FORCING A
THERMODYNAMIC RETREAT FROM RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. RIDGE CORE OVER THE
BOOT HEEL AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE STATE WILL PRESENT A DRY AND SUNNY DAY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS
ONLY OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER. SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL SHIFT TO THE BIG BEND COUNTRY...AND IMPART A
SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE CORE RETREATS TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...ALLOWING THE FIRST
SIGNS OF NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TO REACH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE SPOTTY RAIN CHANCES FOR CATRON COUNTY...AND A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS AND SLOPES IN LINCOLN COUNTY. SURFACE TROUGH
TAKING SHAPE FROM WESTERN KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO ITS
COMPANION SURFACE LOW OVER THE BIG BEND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE. BOTTOM LINE FOR ANY STORM WILL BE A PAUCITY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND WILL CARRY THESE AS DRY THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. EASTERN SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO SUPPORT
SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

FOR THURSDAY...RIDGE CORE RETREATING FURTHER EASTWARD AS ELONGATE
SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS ACROSS THE HEART OF NEW
MEXICO TO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
COMBINED WITH UP SLOPE FLOW AND SOME DYNAMICS ALOFT ON THE WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE WILL HELP EXPAND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WITH COVERAGE
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME MORE GENERAL AND WIDESPREAD THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND CATRON
COUNTY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OVER THE EAST...WITH
BREEZES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN A MORE DYNAMICALLY ACTIVE PATTERN.
CLOUD COVER AND FALLING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF RIDGE RETREAT WILL
ALSO KNOCK A HANDFUL OF DEGREES OFF THE TOP OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY...WITH MOST SPOTS RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER NORMALS.

FOR FRIDAY...RIDGE CORE REMAINING WELL EAST OF NEW MEXICO AS
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO...HELPED OUT BY TROPICAL SYSTEM CREEPING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. WIDESPREAD SHOWER
COVERAGE ON TAP TO WIND UP THE WORK WEEK..WITH NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS FAVORED...ALONG WITH THE SUMMITS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND SOMEWHAT REDUCED ACTIVITY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON FRIDAY FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
STATE...WITH SPECIAL ATTENTION TO BURN SCARS. A FEW MORE DEGREES
COOLING WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. SURFACE WINDS WILL RUN A FEW KNOTS
BELOW THOSE OBSERVED THURSDAY IN WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERY PATTERN AND COOLING
TREND CONTINUING AS WESTERN MARGINS OF THE RIDGE CORE DANCE WITH
THE REMAINS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFTING OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
COLD FRONT WILL INVADE NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY TO ENHANCE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NORTH. FRONT WILL HAVE
LITTLE STAYING POWER...WITH BACKED EASTERLY WINDS VEERING BACK TO
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY TO RETURN TO MOISTURE ADVECTION DUTY. FAVORED
AREAS SUNDAY WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AND BLANKET THE
WEST...WITH ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC CHALLENGE TO BURN SCAR AREAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTCOMES
FOR MONDAY...AS SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL EXPANDS
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AS RIDGE CORE REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF
NEW MEXICO...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM EASTERN COLORADO
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND...AND NORTHBOUND
PLUME OF MOISTURE SLUICES INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BUT MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL
DRIFT NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT TODAY. A FEW MORE CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY AS MOISTURE JUST ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL SEEPS INTO
THE STATE. MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD LATE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO SEEP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE STATE
WEDNESDAY. MODEL LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS INDICATING THAT
MAINLY TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL RESULT WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER...MODERATE SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE IN FROM WEST TX AND UP TO THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES...MAKING STORMS THERE SOMEWHAT WET. A DRY STORM OR TWO MAY
RESULT FROM THE NE HIGHLANDS NEAR LAS VEGAS SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS NEAR CLINES CORNERS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY TAKE SOME
TIME TO WORK WESTWARD INTO HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH EASTWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME MOVES UP FROM SE
ARIZONA THURSDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BACKDOOR FRONT GETS INTO THE MIX FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...HELPING TO INITIATE STORMS FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES EAST OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. GFS INDICATING THAT DRIER AIR
ALOFT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN CHECK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HIGH THURSDAY THROUGH APPROXIMATELY NEXT
TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS WILL
ALLOW STRONG DRY NWLY WINDS TO END THE SOUTHERLY IMPORT OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WEAKENING WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW
MEXICO. SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NEAR KCVS TO NEAR KRTN WILL
SAG SOUTH AND WESTWARD REACHING KROW VCNTY AROUND 12Z. DEW POINTS
TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KRTN TO KCVS 10Z-16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  92  55  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  87  45  87  47 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  87  51  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  88  49  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  83  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  87  51  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  85  51  84  53 /   0   0   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  91  55  90  56 /   0   0   0   5
CHAMA...........................  82  43  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  85  57  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  84  55  84  54 /   5   5   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  82  49  84  49 /   0   0   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  73  47  75  48 /   5   5   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  78  43  79  43 /   5   5   5   5
TAOS............................  86  47  87  49 /   0   0   0   5
MORA............................  82  51  84  51 /   5   5  10   5
ESPANOLA........................  91  55  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  86  56  85  57 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  89  54  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  90  61  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  92  65  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  93  62  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  93  63  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  92  60  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  93  63  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  96  63  96  63 /   0   0   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  89  58  89  59 /   0   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  89  58  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  88  51  88  53 /   0   0   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  86  57  86  56 /   0   5   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  88  58  87  58 /   0   0   5   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  91  62  89  62 /   0   0   0   5
RUIDOSO.........................  85  57  84  56 /   5   0  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  84  56  88  55 /   5   5   5   5
RATON...........................  88  52  91  52 /   5   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  89  53  92  54 /   5   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  86  54  87  54 /   5   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  88  62  95  63 /   5   5   5   5
ROY.............................  86  59  90  58 /   5   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  92  65  96  65 /   5   5   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  92  63  94  63 /   0   0   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  95  67  98  66 /   5   0   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  94  64  94  63 /   0   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  95  65  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  95  65  94  65 /   0   0   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  98  68  96  67 /   0   0   0   5
PICACHO.........................  92  61  90  60 /   0   0   5   5
ELK.............................  87  59  85  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHY









000
FXUS65 KABQ 020852
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
252 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SUNNY AND DRY TUESDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A MUCH WETTER AND MORE
SHOWERY ENDING TO THE WORK WEEK THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
HEAVY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUING
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...HIGH AND DRY WITH RIDGE CORE OVER THE BOOT HEEL...AND
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE GRAZING NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO. SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DRAGGING WEAK COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS INTERSTATE 40...BUT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE AND MODEST WIND SHIFT EVIDENCE IS ALL THAT SHOWS UP AS
THIS FEATURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND ACROSS
THE FIRST HALF OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. RIDGE SPRAWLED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH ELONGATE CORE STRETCHING FROM
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ACROSS TEXAS...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WILL CONSOLIDATE EASTWARD WITH CORE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
WEDNESDAY MORNING...NEAR MEMPHIS ON THURSDAY...AND BACK OVER THE
EAST TEXAS PINEY WOODS COUNTRY BY FRIDAY. ACTION WILL OPEN WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE FOR NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR THE
LAST OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE PUSH WILL BE
AIDED AND ABETTED BY TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SETTING UP OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WHICH WILL DRIFT NORTH TO CABO SAN
LAZARO HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND THEN WILL DRIFT WESTWARD OUT
OF THE PICTURE INTO THE EAST PACIFIC BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. AWAY
FROM THE TROPICS...PERSISTENT TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL MAKE VERY SLOW DIG INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEAVING NEW MEXICO ON WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH A TROUGH LURKING UPSTREAM. SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIG TROUGH TO THE FOUR
CORNERS BY EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN INTO THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK.

FOR TODAY...A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE EAST...FORCING A
THERMODYNAMIC RETREAT FROM RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. RIDGE CORE OVER THE
BOOT HEEL AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE STATE WILL PRESENT A DRY AND SUNNY DAY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS
ONLY OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER. SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL SHIFT TO THE BIG BEND COUNTRY...AND IMPART A
SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE CORE RETREATS TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...ALLOWING THE FIRST
SIGNS OF NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TO REACH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE SPOTTY RAIN CHANCES FOR CATRON COUNTY...AND A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS AND SLOPES IN LINCOLN COUNTY. SURFACE TROUGH
TAKING SHAPE FROM WESTERN KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO ITS
COMPANION SURFACE LOW OVER THE BIG BEND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE. BOTTOM LINE FOR ANY STORM WILL BE A PAUCITY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND WILL CARRY THESE AS DRY THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. EASTERN SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO SUPPORT
SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

FOR THURSDAY...RIDGE CORE RETREATING FURTHER EASTWARD AS ELONGATE
SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS ACROSS THE HEART OF NEW
MEXICO TO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
COMBINED WITH UP SLOPE FLOW AND SOME DYNAMICS ALOFT ON THE WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE WILL HELP EXPAND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WITH COVERAGE
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME MORE GENERAL AND WIDESPREAD THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND CATRON
COUNTY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OVER THE EAST...WITH
BREEZES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN A MORE DYNAMICALLY ACTIVE PATTERN.
CLOUD COVER AND FALLING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF RIDGE RETREAT WILL
ALSO KNOCK A HANDFUL OF DEGREES OFF THE TOP OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY...WITH MOST SPOTS RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER NORMALS.

FOR FRIDAY...RIDGE CORE REMAINING WELL EAST OF NEW MEXICO AS
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO...HELPED OUT BY TROPICAL SYSTEM CREEPING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. WIDESPREAD SHOWER
COVERAGE ON TAP TO WIND UP THE WORK WEEK..WITH NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS FAVORED...ALONG WITH THE SUMMITS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND SOMEWHAT REDUCED ACTIVITY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON FRIDAY FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
STATE...WITH SPECIAL ATTENTION TO BURN SCARS. A FEW MORE DEGREES
COOLING WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. SURFACE WINDS WILL RUN A FEW KNOTS
BELOW THOSE OBSERVED THURSDAY IN WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERY PATTERN AND COOLING
TREND CONTINUING AS WESTERN MARGINS OF THE RIDGE CORE DANCE WITH
THE REMAINS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFTING OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
COLD FRONT WILL INVADE NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY TO ENHANCE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NORTH. FRONT WILL HAVE
LITTLE STAYING POWER...WITH BACKED EASTERLY WINDS VEERING BACK TO
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY TO RETURN TO MOISTURE ADVECTION DUTY. FAVORED
AREAS SUNDAY WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AND BLANKET THE
WEST...WITH ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC CHALLENGE TO BURN SCAR AREAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTCOMES
FOR MONDAY...AS SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL EXPANDS
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AS RIDGE CORE REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF
NEW MEXICO...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM EASTERN COLORADO
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND...AND NORTHBOUND
PLUME OF MOISTURE SLUICES INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BUT MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL
DRIFT NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT TODAY. A FEW MORE CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY AS MOISTURE JUST ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL SEEPS INTO
THE STATE. MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD LATE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO SEEP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE STATE
WEDNESDAY. MODEL LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS INDICATING THAT
MAINLY TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL RESULT WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER...MODERATE SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE IN FROM WEST TX AND UP TO THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES...MAKING STORMS THERE SOMEWHAT WET. A DRY STORM OR TWO MAY
RESULT FROM THE NE HIGHLANDS NEAR LAS VEGAS SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS NEAR CLINES CORNERS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY TAKE SOME
TIME TO WORK WESTWARD INTO HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH EASTWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME MOVES UP FROM SE
ARIZONA THURSDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BACKDOOR FRONT GETS INTO THE MIX FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...HELPING TO INITIATE STORMS FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES EAST OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. GFS INDICATING THAT DRIER AIR
ALOFT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN CHECK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HIGH THURSDAY THROUGH APPROXIMATELY NEXT
TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS WILL
ALLOW STRONG DRY NWLY WINDS TO END THE SOUTHERLY IMPORT OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WEAKENING WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW
MEXICO. SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NEAR KCVS TO NEAR KRTN WILL
SAG SOUTH AND WESTWARD REACHING KROW VCNTY AROUND 12Z. DEW POINTS
TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KRTN TO KCVS 10Z-16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  92  55  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  87  45  87  47 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  87  51  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  88  49  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  83  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  87  51  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  85  51  84  53 /   0   0   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  91  55  90  56 /   0   0   0   5
CHAMA...........................  82  43  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  85  57  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  84  55  84  54 /   5   5   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  82  49  84  49 /   0   0   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  73  47  75  48 /   5   5   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  78  43  79  43 /   5   5   5   5
TAOS............................  86  47  87  49 /   0   0   0   5
MORA............................  82  51  84  51 /   5   5  10   5
ESPANOLA........................  91  55  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  86  56  85  57 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  89  54  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  90  61  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  92  65  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  93  62  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  93  63  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  92  60  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  93  63  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  96  63  96  63 /   0   0   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  89  58  89  59 /   0   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  89  58  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  88  51  88  53 /   0   0   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  86  57  86  56 /   0   5   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  88  58  87  58 /   0   0   5   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  91  62  89  62 /   0   0   0   5
RUIDOSO.........................  85  57  84  56 /   5   0  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  84  56  88  55 /   5   5   5   5
RATON...........................  88  52  91  52 /   5   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  89  53  92  54 /   5   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  86  54  87  54 /   5   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  88  62  95  63 /   5   5   5   5
ROY.............................  86  59  90  58 /   5   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  92  65  96  65 /   5   5   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  92  63  94  63 /   0   0   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  95  67  98  66 /   5   0   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  94  64  94  63 /   0   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  95  65  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  95  65  94  65 /   0   0   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  98  68  96  67 /   0   0   0   5
PICACHO.........................  92  61  90  60 /   0   0   5   5
ELK.............................  87  59  85  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHY









000
FXUS65 KABQ 020852
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
252 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A SUNNY AND DRY TUESDAY WILL TRANSITION TO A MUCH WETTER AND MORE
SHOWERY ENDING TO THE WORK WEEK THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME SHOWERS WILL BE
HEAVY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS CONTINUING
INTO THE FIRST OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...HIGH AND DRY WITH RIDGE CORE OVER THE BOOT HEEL...AND
WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE GRAZING NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO. SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DRAGGING WEAK COLD
FRONT SOUTHWARD ACROSS INTERSTATE 40...BUT VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE AND MODEST WIND SHIFT EVIDENCE IS ALL THAT SHOWS UP AS
THIS FEATURE DRIFTS SOUTHWARD.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND AND ACROSS
THE FIRST HALF OF THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. RIDGE SPRAWLED ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. WITH ELONGATE CORE STRETCHING FROM
THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...ACROSS TEXAS...TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE
WILL CONSOLIDATE EASTWARD WITH CORE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
WEDNESDAY MORNING...NEAR MEMPHIS ON THURSDAY...AND BACK OVER THE
EAST TEXAS PINEY WOODS COUNTRY BY FRIDAY. ACTION WILL OPEN WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE FOR NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT FOR THE
LAST OF THE WORK WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE PUSH WILL BE
AIDED AND ABETTED BY TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SETTING UP OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA WHICH WILL DRIFT NORTH TO CABO SAN
LAZARO HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND AND THEN WILL DRIFT WESTWARD OUT
OF THE PICTURE INTO THE EAST PACIFIC BY EARLY NEXT WORK WEEK. AWAY
FROM THE TROPICS...PERSISTENT TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN ALBERTA TO
CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WILL MAKE VERY SLOW DIG INTO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE WEEKEND...LEAVING NEW MEXICO ON WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE BUT WITH A TROUGH LURKING UPSTREAM. SHORTWAVE
MOVING OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIG TROUGH TO THE FOUR
CORNERS BY EARLY TUESDAY AND THEN INTO THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO BY
MIDWEEK.

FOR TODAY...A FEW DEGREES COOLER IN THE EAST...FORCING A
THERMODYNAMIC RETREAT FROM RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES EXPERIENCED
OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RUN 5
TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. RIDGE CORE OVER THE
BOOT HEEL AND WEAK WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
THE STATE WILL PRESENT A DRY AND SUNNY DAY...WITH A FEW CLOUDS
ONLY OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER. SURFACE LOW OVER THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE WILL SHIFT TO THE BIG BEND COUNTRY...AND IMPART A
SOUTHEAST COMPONENT TO WIND DIRECTIONS THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE PRETTY LIGHT THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FOR WEDNESDAY...RIDGE CORE RETREATS TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...ALLOWING THE FIRST
SIGNS OF NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TO REACH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. HAVE SPOTTY RAIN CHANCES FOR CATRON COUNTY...AND A
LITTLE BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS AND SLOPES IN LINCOLN COUNTY. SURFACE TROUGH
TAKING SHAPE FROM WESTERN KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO ITS
COMPANION SURFACE LOW OVER THE BIG BEND MAY PROVIDE ENOUGH SURFACE
CONVERGENCE TO TOUCH OFF SOME ISOLATED STORMS OVER THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO RANGE. BOTTOM LINE FOR ANY STORM WILL BE A PAUCITY OF
AVAILABLE MOISTURE...AND WILL CARRY THESE AS DRY THUNDERSTORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING. EASTERN SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO SUPPORT
SOME BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON AWAY FROM ANY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

FOR THURSDAY...RIDGE CORE RETREATING FURTHER EASTWARD AS ELONGATE
SURFACE TROUGH SETS UP FROM CENTRAL KANSAS ACROSS THE HEART OF NEW
MEXICO TO SOUTHWEST ARIZONA. NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
COMBINED WITH UP SLOPE FLOW AND SOME DYNAMICS ALOFT ON THE WESTERN
MARGINS OF THE RIDGE WILL HELP EXPAND AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE TO MUCH OF WESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...WITH COVERAGE
OVERSPREADING THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.
SOMEWHAT LOCALIZED HEAVIER RAINFALLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON WILL
BECOME MORE GENERAL AND WIDESPREAD THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND CATRON
COUNTY. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BE BREEZY OVER THE EAST...WITH
BREEZES CONTINUING OVERNIGHT IN A MORE DYNAMICALLY ACTIVE PATTERN.
CLOUD COVER AND FALLING HEIGHTS IN THE WAKE OF RIDGE RETREAT WILL
ALSO KNOCK A HANDFUL OF DEGREES OFF THE TOP OF HIGH TEMPERATURES
FOR THE DAY...WITH MOST SPOTS RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY
SEPTEMBER NORMALS.

FOR FRIDAY...RIDGE CORE REMAINING WELL EAST OF NEW MEXICO AS
NORTHBOUND MOISTURE FLOW BECOMES WELL ESTABLISHED ACROSS ARIZONA
AND NEW MEXICO...HELPED OUT BY TROPICAL SYSTEM CREEPING NORTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA PENINSULA. WIDESPREAD SHOWER
COVERAGE ON TAP TO WIND UP THE WORK WEEK..WITH NORTHERN AND
WESTERN SECTIONS FAVORED...ALONG WITH THE SUMMITS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...AND SOMEWHAT REDUCED ACTIVITY OVER
THE SOUTHEAST. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON FRIDAY FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOOD
WATCHES...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE
STATE...WITH SPECIAL ATTENTION TO BURN SCARS. A FEW MORE DEGREES
COOLING WILL BRING DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN TO NEAR
NORMAL FOR EARLY SEPTEMBER. SURFACE WINDS WILL RUN A FEW KNOTS
BELOW THOSE OBSERVED THURSDAY IN WEAKER SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT.

OUTLOOK...WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...SHOWERY PATTERN AND COOLING
TREND CONTINUING AS WESTERN MARGINS OF THE RIDGE CORE DANCE WITH
THE REMAINS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEM DRIFTING OFF BAJA CALIFORNIA.
COLD FRONT WILL INVADE NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY TO ENHANCE
SHOWER COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OVER THE NORTH. FRONT WILL HAVE
LITTLE STAYING POWER...WITH BACKED EASTERLY WINDS VEERING BACK TO
SOUTHERLY ON SUNDAY TO RETURN TO MOISTURE ADVECTION DUTY. FAVORED
AREAS SUNDAY WILL SHIFT OUT OF THE NORTH AND BLANKET THE
WEST...WITH ADDITIONAL HYDROLOGIC CHALLENGE TO BURN SCAR AREAS
ACROSS THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OUTCOMES
FOR MONDAY...AS SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE WEST AND CENTRAL EXPANDS
TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST AS RIDGE CORE REMAINS SOUTH AND EAST OF
NEW MEXICO...SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE FROM EASTERN COLORADO
ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND...AND NORTHBOUND
PLUME OF MOISTURE SLUICES INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE TODAY BUT MONSOON MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE WEDNESDAY. UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL
DRIFT NORTHWARD SOMEWHAT TODAY. A FEW MORE CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL
DEVELOP TODAY AS MOISTURE JUST ABOVE MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL SEEPS INTO
THE STATE. MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE UPPER HIGH
CENTER WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD LATE DAY WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO
ALLOW MONSOON MOISTURE TO SEEP NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE STATE
WEDNESDAY. MODEL LAYER RELATIVE HUMIDITY PROGS INDICATING THAT
MAINLY TOWERING CUMULUS CLOUDS WILL RESULT WEST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...HOWEVER...MODERATE SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL
TRANSPORT LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE IN FROM WEST TX AND UP TO THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES...MAKING STORMS THERE SOMEWHAT WET. A DRY STORM OR TWO MAY
RESULT FROM THE NE HIGHLANDS NEAR LAS VEGAS SOUTHWARD TO THE CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS NEAR CLINES CORNERS WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY TAKE SOME
TIME TO WORK WESTWARD INTO HIGHER ELEVATION AREAS.

MODELS CONTINUE IDEA OF SHIFTING THE UPPER HIGH EASTWARD WEDNESDAY
NIGHT AND THURSDAY. DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME MOVES UP FROM SE
ARIZONA THURSDAY...CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. BACKDOOR FRONT GETS INTO THE MIX FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...HELPING TO INITIATE STORMS FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANGRES EAST OUT ONTO THE PLAINS. GFS INDICATING THAT DRIER AIR
ALOFT SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 MAY KEEP THUNDERSTORMS IN CHECK SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...A DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME WILL KEEP
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HIGH THURSDAY THROUGH APPROXIMATELY NEXT
TUESDAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND PLAINS WILL
ALLOW STRONG DRY NWLY WINDS TO END THE SOUTHERLY IMPORT OF
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE INTO THE REGION.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WEAKENING WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW
MEXICO. SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NEAR KCVS TO NEAR KRTN WILL
SAG SOUTH AND WESTWARD REACHING KROW VCNTY AROUND 12Z. DEW POINTS
TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KRTN TO KCVS 10Z-16Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  92  55  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  87  45  87  47 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  87  51  87  52 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  88  49  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  83  49  82  51 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  87  51  86  53 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  85  51  84  53 /   0   0   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  91  55  90  56 /   0   0   0   5
CHAMA...........................  82  43  82  44 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  85  57  85  57 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  84  55  84  54 /   5   5   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  82  49  84  49 /   0   0   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  73  47  75  48 /   5   5   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  78  43  79  43 /   5   5   5   5
TAOS............................  86  47  87  49 /   0   0   0   5
MORA............................  82  51  84  51 /   5   5  10   5
ESPANOLA........................  91  55  91  56 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  86  56  85  57 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  89  54  89  56 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  90  61  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  92  65  92  65 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  93  62  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  93  63  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  92  60  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  93  63  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  96  63  96  63 /   0   0   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  89  58  89  59 /   0   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  89  58  89  59 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  88  51  88  53 /   0   0   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  86  57  86  56 /   0   5   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  88  58  87  58 /   0   0   5   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  91  62  89  62 /   0   0   0   5
RUIDOSO.........................  85  57  84  56 /   5   0  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  84  56  88  55 /   5   5   5   5
RATON...........................  88  52  91  52 /   5   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  89  53  92  54 /   5   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  86  54  87  54 /   5   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  88  62  95  63 /   5   5   5   5
ROY.............................  86  59  90  58 /   5   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  92  65  96  65 /   5   5   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  92  63  94  63 /   0   0   5   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  95  67  98  66 /   5   0   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  94  64  94  63 /   0   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  95  65  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  95  65  94  65 /   0   0   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  98  68  96  67 /   0   0   0   5
PICACHO.........................  92  61  90  60 /   0   0   5   5
ELK.............................  87  59  85  58 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHY









000
FXUS65 KABQ 020545
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1145 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WEAKENING WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW
MEXICO. SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NEAR KCVS TO NEAR KRTN WILL
SAG SOUTH AND WESTWARD REACHING KROW VCNTY AROUND 12Z. DEWPOINTS
TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KRTN TO KCVS 10Z-16Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A MOISTURE TAP FROM MEXICO TO ENTER THE
THE STATE. MEANWHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT MAKE AS MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH AND WEST
AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN NM LATE IN THE WEEK. TIMING IS DIFFERENT ON THE
MODELS. BUT ONE THING IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY...AND THAT IS IS BIG
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AND MAYBE BEYOND. 40

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A FINE LABOR DAY...WITH SUNSHINE...WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES
AND ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO MAKE THOSE HIGH TEMPERATURES BEARABLE.
TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN THE EAST...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL THOUGH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

CHANGES WILL BEGIN FROM WEDNESDAY ON. PRETTY SUBTLE AT FIRST WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. A FEW MOSTLY DRY STORMS MAY DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOME OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN. THE GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS. AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD
ENHANCE THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY.

THE MOST NOTABLE MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO BE THIS WEEKEND...BOTH
FROM THE MONSOONAL TAP FROM THE SOUTH AND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT IN THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WHAT HAPPENS BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HINGE ON A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM COMES DIRECTLY OVER
NM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN AHEAD OF AND WITH
THE SYSTEM. ARE WE IN FOR ANOTHER RECORD WET SEPTEMBER LIKE LAST
YEAR? ITS WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY AND CERTAINLY ODDS ARE STRONGLY
AGAINST IT. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO AZ ON
WEDNESDAY THE TENTH...SLOWER THAN THE GFS WHICH IN THE LONG RUN
MAY KEEP THE MOISTURE AROUND LONGER...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN MID WEEK WHEN SPOTTY AND DRIER STYLE
THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER IN THE FORECAST. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...WHEN WETTING
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD.

A DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
DEEPENS ON THE WEST COAST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THAT
TROUGH EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ELEVATED
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ENOUGH OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. MODELS AGREE BETTER ON CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. FOR NOW OUR FORECAST
GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THURSDAY THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL GET A BOOST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
EJECT FROM THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BOARDER...DRAWING A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS AZ AND WESTERN NM IN THE PROCESS. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY
STORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND CELLS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING ON THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST IT WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW ON OR OFF THE COAST AT SOME
POINT...THOUGH THEY DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AND POSITION.
EITHER WAY...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS NM FROM THE SE. AND...THE DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH EAST
OF NM WILL STEER A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND WITH WETTER VARIETY CELLS PREVAILING BY FRIDAY IF NOT
SOONER. THE AXIS OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY LOOKS TO
FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...BUT A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SHOULD KEEP PLAINS LOCATIONS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE TOO.  GFS IS ABOUT
12 HOURS FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE ECMWF...DROPPING IT INTO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING VERSUS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
MEXICOS WEST COAST SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE INFLUX INTO NM
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NM AND/OR AZ NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK WILL TREND DOWNWARD IN ERNEST BEGINNING THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE INFLUX STARTS. BY THE WEEKEND READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM
NEAR NORMAL TO POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE.
HAINES INDICES IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE WILL PLAGUE WESTERN...CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...AND TO A
DECREASING EXTENT THURSDAY. POCKETS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN VALLEYS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GRADUALLY DEEPENING MOISTURE INFLUX
AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES SHOULD RID THE AREA OF CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITIES BY THURSDAY AND CRITICALLY HIGH HAINES BY FRIDAY. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 020545
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1145 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WEAKENING WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW
MEXICO. SFC BOUNDARY STRETCHED FROM NEAR KCVS TO NEAR KRTN WILL
SAG SOUTH AND WESTWARD REACHING KROW VCNTY AROUND 12Z. DEWPOINTS
TO INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY WITH POTENTIAL FOR MVFR
CIGS ALONG AND EAST OF A LINE FROM KRTN TO KCVS 10Z-16Z.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A MOISTURE TAP FROM MEXICO TO ENTER THE
THE STATE. MEANWHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT MAKE AS MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH AND WEST
AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN NM LATE IN THE WEEK. TIMING IS DIFFERENT ON THE
MODELS. BUT ONE THING IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY...AND THAT IS IS BIG
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AND MAYBE BEYOND. 40

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A FINE LABOR DAY...WITH SUNSHINE...WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES
AND ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO MAKE THOSE HIGH TEMPERATURES BEARABLE.
TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN THE EAST...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL THOUGH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

CHANGES WILL BEGIN FROM WEDNESDAY ON. PRETTY SUBTLE AT FIRST WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. A FEW MOSTLY DRY STORMS MAY DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOME OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN. THE GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS. AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD
ENHANCE THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY.

THE MOST NOTABLE MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO BE THIS WEEKEND...BOTH
FROM THE MONSOONAL TAP FROM THE SOUTH AND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT IN THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WHAT HAPPENS BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HINGE ON A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM COMES DIRECTLY OVER
NM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN AHEAD OF AND WITH
THE SYSTEM. ARE WE IN FOR ANOTHER RECORD WET SEPTEMBER LIKE LAST
YEAR? ITS WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY AND CERTAINLY ODDS ARE STRONGLY
AGAINST IT. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO AZ ON
WEDNESDAY THE TENTH...SLOWER THAN THE GFS WHICH IN THE LONG RUN
MAY KEEP THE MOISTURE AROUND LONGER...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN MID WEEK WHEN SPOTTY AND DRIER STYLE
THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER IN THE FORECAST. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...WHEN WETTING
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD.

A DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
DEEPENS ON THE WEST COAST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THAT
TROUGH EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ELEVATED
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ENOUGH OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. MODELS AGREE BETTER ON CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. FOR NOW OUR FORECAST
GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THURSDAY THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL GET A BOOST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
EJECT FROM THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BOARDER...DRAWING A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS AZ AND WESTERN NM IN THE PROCESS. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY
STORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND CELLS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING ON THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST IT WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW ON OR OFF THE COAST AT SOME
POINT...THOUGH THEY DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AND POSITION.
EITHER WAY...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS NM FROM THE SE. AND...THE DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH EAST
OF NM WILL STEER A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND WITH WETTER VARIETY CELLS PREVAILING BY FRIDAY IF NOT
SOONER. THE AXIS OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY LOOKS TO
FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...BUT A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SHOULD KEEP PLAINS LOCATIONS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE TOO.  GFS IS ABOUT
12 HOURS FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE ECMWF...DROPPING IT INTO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING VERSUS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
MEXICOS WEST COAST SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE INFLUX INTO NM
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NM AND/OR AZ NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK WILL TREND DOWNWARD IN ERNEST BEGINNING THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE INFLUX STARTS. BY THE WEEKEND READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM
NEAR NORMAL TO POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE.
HAINES INDICES IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE WILL PLAGUE WESTERN...CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...AND TO A
DECREASING EXTENT THURSDAY. POCKETS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN VALLEYS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GRADUALLY DEEPENING MOISTURE INFLUX
AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES SHOULD RID THE AREA OF CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITIES BY THURSDAY AND CRITICALLY HIGH HAINES BY FRIDAY. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 012329
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
529 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
FLAT RIDGE WITH DRY WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 02/12Z THEN
WINDS ALF WEAKEN AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO. SFC BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM NEAR KCVS TO NEAR KRTN AT 01/23Z WILL SAG SOUTH AND
WESTWARD REACHING KROW VCNTY BETWEEN 02/08Z-12Z. DEWPOINTS TO
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR FAR NE NM TO SEE
THEM IF THEY DO DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A MOISTURE TAP FROM MEXICO TO ENTER THE
THE STATE. MEANWHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT MAKE AS MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH AND WEST
AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN NM LATE IN THE WEEK. TIMING IS DIFFERENT ON THE
MODELS. BUT ONE THING IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY...AND THAT IS IS BIG
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AND MAYBE BEYOND. 40

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A FINE LABOR DAY...WITH SUNSHINE...WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES
AND ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO MAKE THOSE HIGH TEMPERATURES BEARABLE.
TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN THE EAST...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL THOUGH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

CHANGES WILL BEGIN FROM WEDNESDAY ON. PRETTY SUBTLE AT FIRST WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. A FEW MOSTLY DRY STORMS MAY DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOME OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN. THE GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS. AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD
ENHANCE THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY.

THE MOST NOTABLE MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO BE THIS WEEKEND...BOTH
FROM THE MONSOONAL TAP FROM THE SOUTH AND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT IN THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WHAT HAPPENS BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HINGE ON A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM COMES DIRECTLY OVER
NM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN AHEAD OF AND WITH
THE SYSTEM. ARE WE IN FOR ANOTHER RECORD WET SEPTEMBER LIKE LAST
YEAR? ITS WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY AND CERTAINLY ODDS ARE STRONGLY
AGAINST IT. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO AZ ON
WEDNESDAY THE TENTH...SLOWER THAN THE GFS WHICH IN THE LONG RUN
MAY KEEP THE MOISTURE AROUND LONGER...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN MID WEEK WHEN SPOTTY AND DRIER STYLE
THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER IN THE FORECAST. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...WHEN WETTING
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD.

A DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
DEEPENS ON THE WEST COAST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THAT
TROUGH EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ELEVATED
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ENOUGH OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. MODELS AGREE BETTER ON CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. FOR NOW OUR FORECAST
GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THURSDAY THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL GET A BOOST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
EJECT FROM THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BOARDER...DRAWING A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS AZ AND WESTERN NM IN THE PROCESS. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY
STORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND CELLS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING ON THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST IT WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW ON OR OFF THE COAST AT SOME
POINT...THOUGH THEY DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AND POSITION.
EITHER WAY...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS NM FROM THE SE. AND...THE DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH EAST
OF NM WILL STEER A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND WITH WETTER VARIETY CELLS PREVAILING BY FRIDAY IF NOT
SOONER. THE AXIS OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY LOOKS TO
FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...BUT A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SHOULD KEEP PLAINS LOCATIONS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE TOO.  GFS IS ABOUT
12 HOURS FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE ECMWF...DROPPING IT INTO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING VERSUS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
MEXICOS WEST COAST SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE INFLUX INTO NM
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NM AND/OR AZ NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK WILL TREND DOWNWARD IN ERNEST BEGINNING THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE INFLUX STARTS. BY THE WEEKEND READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM
NEAR NORMAL TO POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE.
HAINES INDICES IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE WILL PLAGUE WESTERN...CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...AND TO A
DECREASING EXTENT THURSDAY. POCKETS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN VALLEYS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GRADUALLY DEEPENING MOISTURE INFLUX
AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES SHOULD RID THE AREA OF CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITIES BY THURSDAY AND CRITICALLY HIGH HAINES BY FRIDAY. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 012329
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
529 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
FLAT RIDGE WITH DRY WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 02/12Z THEN
WINDS ALF WEAKEN AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO. SFC BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM NEAR KCVS TO NEAR KRTN AT 01/23Z WILL SAG SOUTH AND
WESTWARD REACHING KROW VCNTY BETWEEN 02/08Z-12Z. DEWPOINTS TO
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR FAR NE NM TO SEE
THEM IF THEY DO DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A MOISTURE TAP FROM MEXICO TO ENTER THE
THE STATE. MEANWHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT MAKE AS MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH AND WEST
AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN NM LATE IN THE WEEK. TIMING IS DIFFERENT ON THE
MODELS. BUT ONE THING IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY...AND THAT IS IS BIG
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AND MAYBE BEYOND. 40

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A FINE LABOR DAY...WITH SUNSHINE...WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES
AND ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO MAKE THOSE HIGH TEMPERATURES BEARABLE.
TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN THE EAST...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL THOUGH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

CHANGES WILL BEGIN FROM WEDNESDAY ON. PRETTY SUBTLE AT FIRST WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. A FEW MOSTLY DRY STORMS MAY DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOME OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN. THE GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS. AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD
ENHANCE THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY.

THE MOST NOTABLE MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO BE THIS WEEKEND...BOTH
FROM THE MONSOONAL TAP FROM THE SOUTH AND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT IN THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WHAT HAPPENS BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HINGE ON A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM COMES DIRECTLY OVER
NM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN AHEAD OF AND WITH
THE SYSTEM. ARE WE IN FOR ANOTHER RECORD WET SEPTEMBER LIKE LAST
YEAR? ITS WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY AND CERTAINLY ODDS ARE STRONGLY
AGAINST IT. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO AZ ON
WEDNESDAY THE TENTH...SLOWER THAN THE GFS WHICH IN THE LONG RUN
MAY KEEP THE MOISTURE AROUND LONGER...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN MID WEEK WHEN SPOTTY AND DRIER STYLE
THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER IN THE FORECAST. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...WHEN WETTING
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD.

A DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
DEEPENS ON THE WEST COAST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THAT
TROUGH EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ELEVATED
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ENOUGH OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. MODELS AGREE BETTER ON CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. FOR NOW OUR FORECAST
GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THURSDAY THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL GET A BOOST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
EJECT FROM THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BOARDER...DRAWING A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS AZ AND WESTERN NM IN THE PROCESS. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY
STORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND CELLS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING ON THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST IT WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW ON OR OFF THE COAST AT SOME
POINT...THOUGH THEY DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AND POSITION.
EITHER WAY...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS NM FROM THE SE. AND...THE DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH EAST
OF NM WILL STEER A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND WITH WETTER VARIETY CELLS PREVAILING BY FRIDAY IF NOT
SOONER. THE AXIS OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY LOOKS TO
FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...BUT A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SHOULD KEEP PLAINS LOCATIONS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE TOO.  GFS IS ABOUT
12 HOURS FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE ECMWF...DROPPING IT INTO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING VERSUS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
MEXICOS WEST COAST SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE INFLUX INTO NM
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NM AND/OR AZ NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK WILL TREND DOWNWARD IN ERNEST BEGINNING THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE INFLUX STARTS. BY THE WEEKEND READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM
NEAR NORMAL TO POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE.
HAINES INDICES IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE WILL PLAGUE WESTERN...CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...AND TO A
DECREASING EXTENT THURSDAY. POCKETS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN VALLEYS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GRADUALLY DEEPENING MOISTURE INFLUX
AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES SHOULD RID THE AREA OF CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITIES BY THURSDAY AND CRITICALLY HIGH HAINES BY FRIDAY. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 012329
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
529 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
FLAT RIDGE WITH DRY WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 02/12Z THEN
WINDS ALF WEAKEN AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO. SFC BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM NEAR KCVS TO NEAR KRTN AT 01/23Z WILL SAG SOUTH AND
WESTWARD REACHING KROW VCNTY BETWEEN 02/08Z-12Z. DEWPOINTS TO
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR FAR NE NM TO SEE
THEM IF THEY DO DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A MOISTURE TAP FROM MEXICO TO ENTER THE
THE STATE. MEANWHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT MAKE AS MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH AND WEST
AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN NM LATE IN THE WEEK. TIMING IS DIFFERENT ON THE
MODELS. BUT ONE THING IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY...AND THAT IS IS BIG
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AND MAYBE BEYOND. 40

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A FINE LABOR DAY...WITH SUNSHINE...WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES
AND ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO MAKE THOSE HIGH TEMPERATURES BEARABLE.
TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN THE EAST...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL THOUGH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

CHANGES WILL BEGIN FROM WEDNESDAY ON. PRETTY SUBTLE AT FIRST WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. A FEW MOSTLY DRY STORMS MAY DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOME OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN. THE GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS. AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD
ENHANCE THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY.

THE MOST NOTABLE MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO BE THIS WEEKEND...BOTH
FROM THE MONSOONAL TAP FROM THE SOUTH AND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT IN THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WHAT HAPPENS BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HINGE ON A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM COMES DIRECTLY OVER
NM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN AHEAD OF AND WITH
THE SYSTEM. ARE WE IN FOR ANOTHER RECORD WET SEPTEMBER LIKE LAST
YEAR? ITS WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY AND CERTAINLY ODDS ARE STRONGLY
AGAINST IT. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO AZ ON
WEDNESDAY THE TENTH...SLOWER THAN THE GFS WHICH IN THE LONG RUN
MAY KEEP THE MOISTURE AROUND LONGER...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN MID WEEK WHEN SPOTTY AND DRIER STYLE
THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER IN THE FORECAST. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...WHEN WETTING
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD.

A DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
DEEPENS ON THE WEST COAST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THAT
TROUGH EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ELEVATED
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ENOUGH OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. MODELS AGREE BETTER ON CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. FOR NOW OUR FORECAST
GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THURSDAY THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL GET A BOOST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
EJECT FROM THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BOARDER...DRAWING A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS AZ AND WESTERN NM IN THE PROCESS. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY
STORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND CELLS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING ON THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST IT WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW ON OR OFF THE COAST AT SOME
POINT...THOUGH THEY DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AND POSITION.
EITHER WAY...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS NM FROM THE SE. AND...THE DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH EAST
OF NM WILL STEER A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND WITH WETTER VARIETY CELLS PREVAILING BY FRIDAY IF NOT
SOONER. THE AXIS OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY LOOKS TO
FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...BUT A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SHOULD KEEP PLAINS LOCATIONS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE TOO.  GFS IS ABOUT
12 HOURS FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE ECMWF...DROPPING IT INTO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING VERSUS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
MEXICOS WEST COAST SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE INFLUX INTO NM
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NM AND/OR AZ NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK WILL TREND DOWNWARD IN ERNEST BEGINNING THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE INFLUX STARTS. BY THE WEEKEND READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM
NEAR NORMAL TO POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE.
HAINES INDICES IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE WILL PLAGUE WESTERN...CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...AND TO A
DECREASING EXTENT THURSDAY. POCKETS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN VALLEYS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GRADUALLY DEEPENING MOISTURE INFLUX
AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES SHOULD RID THE AREA OF CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITIES BY THURSDAY AND CRITICALLY HIGH HAINES BY FRIDAY. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 012329
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
529 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
FLAT RIDGE WITH DRY WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT THROUGH 02/12Z THEN
WINDS ALF WEAKEN AS RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO. SFC BOUNDARY
STRETCHED FROM NEAR KCVS TO NEAR KRTN AT 01/23Z WILL SAG SOUTH AND
WESTWARD REACHING KROW VCNTY BETWEEN 02/08Z-12Z. DEWPOINTS TO
INCREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE BOUNDARY BUT NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD
LOW CLOUDS...ALTHOUGH SOME POTENTIAL MAINLY FOR FAR NE NM TO SEE
THEM IF THEY DO DEVELOP.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...323 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A MOISTURE TAP FROM MEXICO TO ENTER THE
THE STATE. MEANWHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT MAKE AS MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH AND WEST
AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN NM LATE IN THE WEEK. TIMING IS DIFFERENT ON THE
MODELS. BUT ONE THING IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY...AND THAT IS IS BIG
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AND MAYBE BEYOND. 40

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A FINE LABOR DAY...WITH SUNSHINE...WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES
AND ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO MAKE THOSE HIGH TEMPERATURES BEARABLE.
TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN THE EAST...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL THOUGH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

CHANGES WILL BEGIN FROM WEDNESDAY ON. PRETTY SUBTLE AT FIRST WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. A FEW MOSTLY DRY STORMS MAY DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOME OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN. THE GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS. AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD
ENHANCE THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY.

THE MOST NOTABLE MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO BE THIS WEEKEND...BOTH
FROM THE MONSOONAL TAP FROM THE SOUTH AND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT IN THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WHAT HAPPENS BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HINGE ON A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM COMES DIRECTLY OVER
NM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN AHEAD OF AND WITH
THE SYSTEM. ARE WE IN FOR ANOTHER RECORD WET SEPTEMBER LIKE LAST
YEAR? ITS WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY AND CERTAINLY ODDS ARE STRONGLY
AGAINST IT. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO AZ ON
WEDNESDAY THE TENTH...SLOWER THAN THE GFS WHICH IN THE LONG RUN
MAY KEEP THE MOISTURE AROUND LONGER...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN MID WEEK WHEN SPOTTY AND DRIER STYLE
THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER IN THE FORECAST. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...WHEN WETTING
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD.

A DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
DEEPENS ON THE WEST COAST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THAT
TROUGH EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ELEVATED
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ENOUGH OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. MODELS AGREE BETTER ON CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. FOR NOW OUR FORECAST
GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THURSDAY THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL GET A BOOST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
EJECT FROM THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BOARDER...DRAWING A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS AZ AND WESTERN NM IN THE PROCESS. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY
STORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND CELLS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING ON THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST IT WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW ON OR OFF THE COAST AT SOME
POINT...THOUGH THEY DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AND POSITION.
EITHER WAY...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS NM FROM THE SE. AND...THE DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH EAST
OF NM WILL STEER A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND WITH WETTER VARIETY CELLS PREVAILING BY FRIDAY IF NOT
SOONER. THE AXIS OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY LOOKS TO
FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...BUT A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SHOULD KEEP PLAINS LOCATIONS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE TOO.  GFS IS ABOUT
12 HOURS FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE ECMWF...DROPPING IT INTO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING VERSUS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
MEXICOS WEST COAST SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE INFLUX INTO NM
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NM AND/OR AZ NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK WILL TREND DOWNWARD IN ERNEST BEGINNING THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE INFLUX STARTS. BY THE WEEKEND READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM
NEAR NORMAL TO POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE.
HAINES INDICES IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE WILL PLAGUE WESTERN...CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...AND TO A
DECREASING EXTENT THURSDAY. POCKETS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN VALLEYS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GRADUALLY DEEPENING MOISTURE INFLUX
AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES SHOULD RID THE AREA OF CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITIES BY THURSDAY AND CRITICALLY HIGH HAINES BY FRIDAY. 44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 012123
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
323 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A MOISTURE TAP FROM MEXICO TO ENTER THE
THE STATE. MEANWHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT MAKE AS MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH AND WEST
AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN NM LATE IN THE WEEK. TIMING IS DIFFERENT ON THE
MODELS. BUT ONE THING IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY...AND THAT IS IS BIG
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AND MAYBE BEYOND. 40

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A FINE LABOR DAY...WITH SUNSHINE...WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES
AND ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO MAKE THOSE HIGH TEMPERATURES BEARABLE.
TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN THE EAST...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL THOUGH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

CHANGES WILL BEGIN FROM WEDNESDAY ON. PRETTY SUBTLE AT FIRST WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. A FEW MOSTLY DRY STORMS MAY DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOME OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN. THE GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS. AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD
ENHANCE THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY.

THE MOST NOTABLE MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO BE THIS WEEKEND...BOTH
FROM THE MONSOONAL TAP FROM THE SOUTH AND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT IN THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WHAT HAPPENS BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HINGE ON A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM COMES DIRECTLY OVER
NM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN AHEAD OF AND WITH
THE SYSTEM. ARE WE IN FOR ANOTHER RECORD WET SEPTEMBER LIKE LAST
YEAR? ITS WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY AND CERTAINLY ODDS ARE STRONGLY
AGAINST IT. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO AZ ON
WEDNESDAY THE TENTH...SLOWER THAN THE GFS WHICH IN THE LONG RUN
MAY KEEP THE MOISTURE AROUND LONGER...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN MID WEEK WHEN SPOTTY AND DRIER STYLE
THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER IN THE FORECAST. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...WHEN WETTING
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD.

A DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
DEEPENS ON THE WEST COAST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THAT
TROUGH EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ELEVATED
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ENOUGH OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. MODELS AGREE BETTER ON CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. FOR NOW OUR FORECAST
GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THURSDAY THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL GET A BOOST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
EJECT FROM THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BOARDER...DRAWING A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS AZ AND WESTERN NM IN THE PROCESS. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY
STORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND CELLS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING ON THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST IT WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW ON OR OFF THE COAST AT SOME
POINT...THOUGH THEY DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AND POSITION.
EITHER WAY...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS NM FROM THE SE. AND...THE DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH EAST
OF NM WILL STEER A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND WITH WETTER VARIETY CELLS PREVAILING BY FRIDAY IF NOT
SOONER. THE AXIS OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY LOOKS TO
FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...BUT A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SHOULD KEEP PLAINS LOCATIONS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE TOO.  GFS IS ABOUT
12 HOURS FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE ECMWF...DROPPING IT INTO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING VERSUS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
MEXICOS WEST COAST SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE INFLUX INTO NM
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NM AND/OR AZ NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK WILL TREND DOWNWARD IN ERNEST BEGINNING THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE INFLUX STARTS. BY THE WEEKEND READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM
NEAR NORMAL TO POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE.
HAINES INDICES IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE WILL PLAGUE WESTERN...CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...AND TO A
DECREASING EXTENT THURSDAY. POCKETS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN VALLEYS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GRADUALLY DEEPENING MOISTURE INFLUX
AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES SHOULD RID THE AREA OF CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITIES BY THURSDAY AND CRITICALLY HIGH HAINES BY FRIDAY. 44

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH NOT AS WINDY AS
YESTERDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE WIND FORECAST AT KTCC DUE
TO ITS POSITION NEAR THE AXIS OF A LEE TROUGH. WINDS MAY BLOW MORE
OUT OF THE SE THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  52  92  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  43  87  45  88 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  48  87  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  49  88  48  87 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  48  84  48  82 /   0   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  50  87  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  50  85  51  84 /   0   0   0   5
GLENWOOD........................  53  92  54  90 /   0   5   0   0
CHAMA...........................  41  82  42  82 /   0   0   0   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  84  57  85 /   0   5   0   0
PECOS...........................  53  84  54  84 /   0   5   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  46  83  49  84 /   0   5   0   5
RED RIVER.......................  44  74  46  74 /   0   5   5  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  42  78  42  79 /   0   5   5   5
TAOS............................  44  86  46  87 /   0   5   0   5
MORA............................  49  83  51  85 /   0   5   5  10
ESPANOLA........................  54  91  54  91 /   0   5   0   0
SANTA FE........................  55  86  56  85 /   0   5   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  52  89  54  89 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  60  90  61  91 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  63  92  64  92 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  60  93  61  94 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  61  93  63  95 /   0   5   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  58  92  59  92 /   0   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  61  93  62  95 /   0   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  62  96  63  96 /   0   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  56  89  58  90 /   0   5   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  56  89  57  89 /   0   5   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  50  88  50  87 /   0   5   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  86  56  86 /   0   5   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  55  88  58  87 /   0   5   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  60  91  61  89 /   0   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  55  85  56  84 /   0   5   5  10
CAPULIN.........................  50  84  56  89 /   5   5   5  10
RATON...........................  50  89  52  92 /   5   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  51  89  53  93 /   5   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  87  53  88 /   0   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  58  88  62  95 /   5   5   5   5
ROY.............................  55  86  58  91 /   5   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  62  92  64  95 /   0   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  63  92  63  94 /   0   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  62  95  66  99 /   0   5   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  62  94  63  94 /   0   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  63  95  65  95 /   0   5   0   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  96  65  94 /   0   5   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  64  99  67  97 /   0   5   0   5
PICACHO.........................  61  92  61  90 /   0   5   0   5
ELK.............................  59  87  59  86 /   0   5   5  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40





000
FXUS65 KABQ 012123
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
323 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A MOISTURE TAP FROM MEXICO TO ENTER THE
THE STATE. MEANWHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT MAKE AS MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH AND WEST
AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN NM LATE IN THE WEEK. TIMING IS DIFFERENT ON THE
MODELS. BUT ONE THING IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY...AND THAT IS IS BIG
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AND MAYBE BEYOND. 40

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A FINE LABOR DAY...WITH SUNSHINE...WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES
AND ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO MAKE THOSE HIGH TEMPERATURES BEARABLE.
TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN THE EAST...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL THOUGH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

CHANGES WILL BEGIN FROM WEDNESDAY ON. PRETTY SUBTLE AT FIRST WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. A FEW MOSTLY DRY STORMS MAY DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOME OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN. THE GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS. AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD
ENHANCE THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY.

THE MOST NOTABLE MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO BE THIS WEEKEND...BOTH
FROM THE MONSOONAL TAP FROM THE SOUTH AND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT IN THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WHAT HAPPENS BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HINGE ON A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM COMES DIRECTLY OVER
NM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN AHEAD OF AND WITH
THE SYSTEM. ARE WE IN FOR ANOTHER RECORD WET SEPTEMBER LIKE LAST
YEAR? ITS WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY AND CERTAINLY ODDS ARE STRONGLY
AGAINST IT. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO AZ ON
WEDNESDAY THE TENTH...SLOWER THAN THE GFS WHICH IN THE LONG RUN
MAY KEEP THE MOISTURE AROUND LONGER...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN MID WEEK WHEN SPOTTY AND DRIER STYLE
THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER IN THE FORECAST. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...WHEN WETTING
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD.

A DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
DEEPENS ON THE WEST COAST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THAT
TROUGH EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ELEVATED
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ENOUGH OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. MODELS AGREE BETTER ON CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. FOR NOW OUR FORECAST
GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THURSDAY THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL GET A BOOST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
EJECT FROM THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BOARDER...DRAWING A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS AZ AND WESTERN NM IN THE PROCESS. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY
STORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND CELLS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING ON THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST IT WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW ON OR OFF THE COAST AT SOME
POINT...THOUGH THEY DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AND POSITION.
EITHER WAY...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS NM FROM THE SE. AND...THE DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH EAST
OF NM WILL STEER A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND WITH WETTER VARIETY CELLS PREVAILING BY FRIDAY IF NOT
SOONER. THE AXIS OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY LOOKS TO
FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...BUT A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SHOULD KEEP PLAINS LOCATIONS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE TOO.  GFS IS ABOUT
12 HOURS FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE ECMWF...DROPPING IT INTO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING VERSUS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
MEXICOS WEST COAST SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE INFLUX INTO NM
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NM AND/OR AZ NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK WILL TREND DOWNWARD IN ERNEST BEGINNING THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE INFLUX STARTS. BY THE WEEKEND READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM
NEAR NORMAL TO POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE.
HAINES INDICES IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE WILL PLAGUE WESTERN...CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...AND TO A
DECREASING EXTENT THURSDAY. POCKETS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN VALLEYS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GRADUALLY DEEPENING MOISTURE INFLUX
AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES SHOULD RID THE AREA OF CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITIES BY THURSDAY AND CRITICALLY HIGH HAINES BY FRIDAY. 44

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH NOT AS WINDY AS
YESTERDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE WIND FORECAST AT KTCC DUE
TO ITS POSITION NEAR THE AXIS OF A LEE TROUGH. WINDS MAY BLOW MORE
OUT OF THE SE THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  52  92  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  43  87  45  88 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  48  87  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  49  88  48  87 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  48  84  48  82 /   0   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  50  87  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  50  85  51  84 /   0   0   0   5
GLENWOOD........................  53  92  54  90 /   0   5   0   0
CHAMA...........................  41  82  42  82 /   0   0   0   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  84  57  85 /   0   5   0   0
PECOS...........................  53  84  54  84 /   0   5   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  46  83  49  84 /   0   5   0   5
RED RIVER.......................  44  74  46  74 /   0   5   5  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  42  78  42  79 /   0   5   5   5
TAOS............................  44  86  46  87 /   0   5   0   5
MORA............................  49  83  51  85 /   0   5   5  10
ESPANOLA........................  54  91  54  91 /   0   5   0   0
SANTA FE........................  55  86  56  85 /   0   5   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  52  89  54  89 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  60  90  61  91 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  63  92  64  92 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  60  93  61  94 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  61  93  63  95 /   0   5   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  58  92  59  92 /   0   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  61  93  62  95 /   0   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  62  96  63  96 /   0   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  56  89  58  90 /   0   5   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  56  89  57  89 /   0   5   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  50  88  50  87 /   0   5   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  86  56  86 /   0   5   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  55  88  58  87 /   0   5   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  60  91  61  89 /   0   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  55  85  56  84 /   0   5   5  10
CAPULIN.........................  50  84  56  89 /   5   5   5  10
RATON...........................  50  89  52  92 /   5   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  51  89  53  93 /   5   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  87  53  88 /   0   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  58  88  62  95 /   5   5   5   5
ROY.............................  55  86  58  91 /   5   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  62  92  64  95 /   0   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  63  92  63  94 /   0   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  62  95  66  99 /   0   5   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  62  94  63  94 /   0   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  63  95  65  95 /   0   5   0   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  96  65  94 /   0   5   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  64  99  67  97 /   0   5   0   5
PICACHO.........................  61  92  61  90 /   0   5   0   5
ELK.............................  59  87  59  86 /   0   5   5  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40





000
FXUS65 KABQ 012123
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
323 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A MOISTURE TAP FROM MEXICO TO ENTER THE
THE STATE. MEANWHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT MAKE AS MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH AND WEST
AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN NM LATE IN THE WEEK. TIMING IS DIFFERENT ON THE
MODELS. BUT ONE THING IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY...AND THAT IS IS BIG
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AND MAYBE BEYOND. 40

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A FINE LABOR DAY...WITH SUNSHINE...WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES
AND ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO MAKE THOSE HIGH TEMPERATURES BEARABLE.
TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN THE EAST...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL THOUGH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

CHANGES WILL BEGIN FROM WEDNESDAY ON. PRETTY SUBTLE AT FIRST WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. A FEW MOSTLY DRY STORMS MAY DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOME OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN. THE GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS. AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD
ENHANCE THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY.

THE MOST NOTABLE MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO BE THIS WEEKEND...BOTH
FROM THE MONSOONAL TAP FROM THE SOUTH AND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT IN THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WHAT HAPPENS BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HINGE ON A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM COMES DIRECTLY OVER
NM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN AHEAD OF AND WITH
THE SYSTEM. ARE WE IN FOR ANOTHER RECORD WET SEPTEMBER LIKE LAST
YEAR? ITS WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY AND CERTAINLY ODDS ARE STRONGLY
AGAINST IT. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO AZ ON
WEDNESDAY THE TENTH...SLOWER THAN THE GFS WHICH IN THE LONG RUN
MAY KEEP THE MOISTURE AROUND LONGER...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN MID WEEK WHEN SPOTTY AND DRIER STYLE
THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER IN THE FORECAST. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...WHEN WETTING
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD.

A DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
DEEPENS ON THE WEST COAST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THAT
TROUGH EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ELEVATED
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ENOUGH OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. MODELS AGREE BETTER ON CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. FOR NOW OUR FORECAST
GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THURSDAY THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL GET A BOOST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
EJECT FROM THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BOARDER...DRAWING A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS AZ AND WESTERN NM IN THE PROCESS. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY
STORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND CELLS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING ON THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST IT WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW ON OR OFF THE COAST AT SOME
POINT...THOUGH THEY DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AND POSITION.
EITHER WAY...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS NM FROM THE SE. AND...THE DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH EAST
OF NM WILL STEER A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND WITH WETTER VARIETY CELLS PREVAILING BY FRIDAY IF NOT
SOONER. THE AXIS OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY LOOKS TO
FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...BUT A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SHOULD KEEP PLAINS LOCATIONS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE TOO.  GFS IS ABOUT
12 HOURS FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE ECMWF...DROPPING IT INTO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING VERSUS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
MEXICOS WEST COAST SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE INFLUX INTO NM
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NM AND/OR AZ NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK WILL TREND DOWNWARD IN ERNEST BEGINNING THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE INFLUX STARTS. BY THE WEEKEND READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM
NEAR NORMAL TO POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE.
HAINES INDICES IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE WILL PLAGUE WESTERN...CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...AND TO A
DECREASING EXTENT THURSDAY. POCKETS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN VALLEYS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GRADUALLY DEEPENING MOISTURE INFLUX
AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES SHOULD RID THE AREA OF CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITIES BY THURSDAY AND CRITICALLY HIGH HAINES BY FRIDAY. 44

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH NOT AS WINDY AS
YESTERDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE WIND FORECAST AT KTCC DUE
TO ITS POSITION NEAR THE AXIS OF A LEE TROUGH. WINDS MAY BLOW MORE
OUT OF THE SE THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  52  92  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  43  87  45  88 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  48  87  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  49  88  48  87 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  48  84  48  82 /   0   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  50  87  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  50  85  51  84 /   0   0   0   5
GLENWOOD........................  53  92  54  90 /   0   5   0   0
CHAMA...........................  41  82  42  82 /   0   0   0   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  84  57  85 /   0   5   0   0
PECOS...........................  53  84  54  84 /   0   5   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  46  83  49  84 /   0   5   0   5
RED RIVER.......................  44  74  46  74 /   0   5   5  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  42  78  42  79 /   0   5   5   5
TAOS............................  44  86  46  87 /   0   5   0   5
MORA............................  49  83  51  85 /   0   5   5  10
ESPANOLA........................  54  91  54  91 /   0   5   0   0
SANTA FE........................  55  86  56  85 /   0   5   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  52  89  54  89 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  60  90  61  91 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  63  92  64  92 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  60  93  61  94 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  61  93  63  95 /   0   5   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  58  92  59  92 /   0   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  61  93  62  95 /   0   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  62  96  63  96 /   0   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  56  89  58  90 /   0   5   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  56  89  57  89 /   0   5   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  50  88  50  87 /   0   5   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  86  56  86 /   0   5   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  55  88  58  87 /   0   5   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  60  91  61  89 /   0   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  55  85  56  84 /   0   5   5  10
CAPULIN.........................  50  84  56  89 /   5   5   5  10
RATON...........................  50  89  52  92 /   5   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  51  89  53  93 /   5   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  87  53  88 /   0   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  58  88  62  95 /   5   5   5   5
ROY.............................  55  86  58  91 /   5   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  62  92  64  95 /   0   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  63  92  63  94 /   0   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  62  95  66  99 /   0   5   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  62  94  63  94 /   0   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  63  95  65  95 /   0   5   0   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  96  65  94 /   0   5   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  64  99  67  97 /   0   5   0   5
PICACHO.........................  61  92  61  90 /   0   5   0   5
ELK.............................  59  87  59  86 /   0   5   5  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40





000
FXUS65 KABQ 012123
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
323 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO
THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE EAST FOR THE REST OF
THE WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW A MOISTURE TAP FROM MEXICO TO ENTER THE
THE STATE. MEANWHILE A BACK DOOR FRONT WILL REACH THE NORTHEAST
LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL NOT MAKE AS MUCH PROGRESS SOUTH AND WEST
AS PREVIOUSLY ADVERTISED. A MUCH STRONGER FRONT WILL PLOW SOUTH
ACROSS EASTERN NM LATE IN THE WEEK. TIMING IS DIFFERENT ON THE
MODELS. BUT ONE THING IS ALMOST A CERTAINTY...AND THAT IS IS BIG
INCREASE IN MOISTURE AND RAIN CHANCES FOR LATE IN THE WEEK THROUGH
NEXT WEEKEND AND MAYBE BEYOND. 40

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHAT A FINE LABOR DAY...WITH SUNSHINE...WARM TO HOT TEMPERATURES
AND ENOUGH OF A BREEZE TO MAKE THOSE HIGH TEMPERATURES BEARABLE.
TONIGHT WILL BE GENERALLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS. LOWS WILL BE
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL.

TUESDAY WILL BE ANOTHER DRY AND WARM DAY. HIGHS WILL BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY EXCEPT FOR A FEW DEGREES OF COOLING IN THE EAST...STILL ABOVE
NORMAL THOUGH. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

CHANGES WILL BEGIN FROM WEDNESDAY ON. PRETTY SUBTLE AT FIRST WITH
A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MOISTURE. A FEW MOSTLY DRY STORMS MAY DEVELOP
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OVER SOME OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
TERRAIN. THE GRADUAL MOISTURE INCREASE WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS. AN APPROACHING BACK DOOR COLD FRONT COULD
ENHANCE THE CONVECTION IN THE NORTHEAST FRIDAY.

THE MOST NOTABLE MOISTURE SURGE LOOKS TO BE THIS WEEKEND...BOTH
FROM THE MONSOONAL TAP FROM THE SOUTH AND BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT IN THE NORTH. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AND
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

WHAT HAPPENS BEYOND EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL HINGE ON A TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST. IF THE
GFS IS CORRECT THE REMNANTS OF THIS SYSTEM COMES DIRECTLY OVER
NM TUESDAY NIGHT WITH COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF RAIN AHEAD OF AND WITH
THE SYSTEM. ARE WE IN FOR ANOTHER RECORD WET SEPTEMBER LIKE LAST
YEAR? ITS WAY TOO EARLY TO SAY AND CERTAINLY ODDS ARE STRONGLY
AGAINST IT. THE EUROPEAN BRINGS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM INTO AZ ON
WEDNESDAY THE TENTH...SLOWER THAN THE GFS WHICH IN THE LONG RUN
MAY KEEP THE MOISTURE AROUND LONGER...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR
LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY PATTERN THROUGH TUESDAY...THEN A GRADUAL INFLUX OF MOISTURE
FROM THE SOUTH WILL BEGIN MID WEEK WHEN SPOTTY AND DRIER STYLE
THUNDERSTORMS RE-ENTER IN THE FORECAST. THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE COMING WEEKEND...WHEN WETTING
PRECIPITATION LOOKS TO BECOME WIDESPREAD.

A DRY WEST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT TODAY WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT OUT OF
THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH THROUGH MID WEEK AS A LONGWAVE TROUGH SLOWLY
DEEPENS ON THE WEST COAST...A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECTS FROM THAT
TROUGH EASTWARD ALONG THE US/CANADIAN BORDER...AND AN UPPER LEVEL
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM BUILDS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES. ELEVATED
MOISTURE MAY INCREASE ENOUGH OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FOR A
SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY AND GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOONS/EVENINGS. MODELS AGREE BETTER ON CONVECTION
DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY. FOR NOW OUR FORECAST
GRIDS FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHLIGHT DRY THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL OVER THE
WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS...AND POSSIBLY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST PLAINS. THURSDAY THE MOISTURE ADVECTION
WILL GET A BOOST AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
EJECT FROM THE DEEPENING LONGWAVE TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
US/CANADIAN BOARDER...DRAWING A DEEPER LAYER OF MOISTURE NORTHWARD
ACROSS AZ AND WESTERN NM IN THE PROCESS. A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY
STORMS IS EXPECTED THURSDAY...AND CELLS SHOULD SPREAD NORTHEASTWARD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN AREAS DURING THE EVENING.

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DEEPENING ON THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK. GFS AND ECMWF BOTH
SUGGEST IT WILL FORM A CLOSED LOW ON OR OFF THE COAST AT SOME
POINT...THOUGH THEY DIFFER SIGNIFICANTLY ON TIMING AND POSITION.
EITHER WAY...THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO DRAW RICH LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE ACROSS NM FROM THE SE. AND...THE DEVELOPING UPPER HIGH EAST
OF NM WILL STEER A GRADUALLY STRENGTHENING PLUME OF MONSOON MOISTURE
NORTH AND NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE STATE. AS A RESULT...PRECIPITATION
CHANCES LOOK TO GRADUALLY INCREASE EACH DAY THROUGH THE COMING
WEEKEND WITH WETTER VARIETY CELLS PREVAILING BY FRIDAY IF NOT
SOONER. THE AXIS OF THE MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME INITIALLY LOOKS TO
FAVOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS...BUT A MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
SHOULD KEEP PLAINS LOCATIONS CONVECTIVELY ACTIVE TOO.  GFS IS ABOUT
12 HOURS FASTER WITH THE FRONT THAN THE ECMWF...DROPPING IT INTO THE
NORTHEAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING VERSUS LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. A
DEVELOPING TROPICAL STORM SYSTEM TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG
MEXICOS WEST COAST SHOULD HELP ENHANCE THE MOISTURE INFLUX INTO NM
THIS WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF BOTH INDICATE THE STORM SYSTEM WILL
BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NM AND/OR AZ NEXT WEEK.

HIGH TEMPERATURES ROUGHLY 5 TO 13 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH MID
WEEK WILL TREND DOWNWARD IN ERNEST BEGINNING THURSDAY AS THE
MOISTURE INFLUX STARTS. BY THE WEEKEND READINGS SHOULD VARY FROM
NEAR NORMAL TO POTENTIALLY SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL AREAWIDE.
HAINES INDICES IN THE 5 TO 6 RANGE WILL PLAGUE WESTERN...CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY...AND TO A
DECREASING EXTENT THURSDAY. POCKETS OF CRITICALLY LOW HUMIDITIES
ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN VALLEYS TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...THE GRADUALLY DEEPENING MOISTURE INFLUX
AND DECREASING TEMPERATURES SHOULD RID THE AREA OF CRITICALLY LOW
HUMIDITIES BY THURSDAY AND CRITICALLY HIGH HAINES BY FRIDAY. 44

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH NOT AS WINDY AS
YESTERDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE WIND FORECAST AT KTCC DUE
TO ITS POSITION NEAR THE AXIS OF A LEE TROUGH. WINDS MAY BLOW MORE
OUT OF THE SE THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  52  92  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  43  87  45  88 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  48  87  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  49  88  48  87 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  48  84  48  82 /   0   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  50  87  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  50  85  51  84 /   0   0   0   5
GLENWOOD........................  53  92  54  90 /   0   5   0   0
CHAMA...........................  41  82  42  82 /   0   0   0   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  55  84  57  85 /   0   5   0   0
PECOS...........................  53  84  54  84 /   0   5   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  46  83  49  84 /   0   5   0   5
RED RIVER.......................  44  74  46  74 /   0   5   5  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  42  78  42  79 /   0   5   5   5
TAOS............................  44  86  46  87 /   0   5   0   5
MORA............................  49  83  51  85 /   0   5   5  10
ESPANOLA........................  54  91  54  91 /   0   5   0   0
SANTA FE........................  55  86  56  85 /   0   5   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  52  89  54  89 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  60  90  61  91 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  63  92  64  92 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  60  93  61  94 /   0   5   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  61  93  63  95 /   0   5   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  58  92  59  92 /   0   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  61  93  62  95 /   0   5   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  62  96  63  96 /   0   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  56  89  58  90 /   0   5   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  56  89  57  89 /   0   5   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  50  88  50  87 /   0   5   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  86  56  86 /   0   5   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  55  88  58  87 /   0   5   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  60  91  61  89 /   0   5   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  55  85  56  84 /   0   5   5  10
CAPULIN.........................  50  84  56  89 /   5   5   5  10
RATON...........................  50  89  52  92 /   5   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  51  89  53  93 /   5   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  87  53  88 /   0   5   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  58  88  62  95 /   5   5   5   5
ROY.............................  55  86  58  91 /   5   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  62  92  64  95 /   0   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  63  92  63  94 /   0   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  62  95  66  99 /   0   5   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  62  94  63  94 /   0   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  63  95  65  95 /   0   5   0   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  96  65  94 /   0   5   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  64  99  67  97 /   0   5   0   5
PICACHO.........................  61  92  61  90 /   0   5   0   5
ELK.............................  59  87  59  86 /   0   5   5  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40





000
FXUS65 KABQ 011753 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1153 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH NOT AS WINDY AS
YESTERDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE WIND FORECAST AT KTCC DUE
TO ITS POSITION NEAR THE AXIS OF A LEE TROUGH. WINDS MAY BLOW MORE
OUT OF THE SE THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...235 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL TRANSITION GRADUALLY
TO A WETTER AND CLOUDIER PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MIDWEEK SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SPREAD TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE STATE IN THE RUNNING FOR A SHOWER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...TURBULENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING...OVER THE TOP OF LARGE SPRAWLING RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. WEAK SURFACE FRONT REMAINS DRAPED
ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF NEW MEXICO LINKED UP TO SURFACE LOW
OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM
THE LOW ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE WEST TEXAS BIG
BEND COUNTRY.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE NEW MEXICO STORY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND...AND INTO THE FRONT END OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES EMERGING ON PACE OF UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE MOVEMENTS TOWARDS MIDWEEK. GOOD START STRENGTHENS
RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SHIFT OF RIDGE CORE
EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA ON
WEDNESDAY. UPSTREAM...SHORTWAVE BREAKING OUT OF INTERIOR WESTERN
CANADA WILL HELP SPAWN BROADER TROUGH EXTENDING WELL INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...AND THIS WILL
HOLD THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. PATTERN
WILL PROVIDE PATHS FOR NORTHBOUND MOISTURE SEEPAGE OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THIS
MAY HELP DELIVER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE NORTHBOUND PARADE
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK GETS
UNDERWAY...SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIG TO THE
GREAT BASIN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PHASING UP WITH ANY
TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS...AND MOVING ALL TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF PREFER A SHARPER AND MORE
MUSCULAR TROUGH MARCHING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE MUSCLE MUCH
FURTHER TO THE NORTH...AND TRAILS A BIG BAGGY TROUGH WITH MUCH
SLOWER AND LESS DYNAMIC DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. CAN PULL A
TROUGHIER PATTERN OUT OF BOTH SOLUTIONS...AND CAN SPLIT THE
DYNAMIC DIFFERENCE WITH A CLEAR CONSCIENCE TO GUIDE OUTER PERIOD
FORECAST THINKING FOR NOW...PENDING IMPROVED CONSENSUS IN FUTURE
RUNS.

FOR TODAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
A GOOD WAY TO START SEPTEMBER FOR CHAVES AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES...WITH
OTHER SPOTS ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS COMING CLOSE.
SOME COOLER AIR OOZING INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL HOLD
CLAYTON AND UNION COUNTY A LITTLE SHORT OF RECORD WITH SURFACE
WINDS PICKING UP AN EASTERLY COMPONENT IN CIRCULATION ABOUT
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
OVERHEAD...TURBULENT ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ALL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL
SOUTH AND WELL EAST OF NEW MEXICO.

FOR TUESDAY...COOLER AIR INTO THE EAST AS SURFACE LOW SHIFT TO THE
TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY AND USHERS IN SOME REDUCED TEMPERATURES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN BROADLY
3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS...A LITTLE WARMER
STILL IN THE EAST. TURBULENT BUT NOT STRONG ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD
WILL RUN ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER...AND MAY HELP TOUCH OFF A
QUICK ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS...AND IN NORTHERN UNION COUNTY...WITH VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...WITH SKIES OTHERWISE
SUNNY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WESTERN MARGINS OF RIDGE CORE WILL BEGIN TO
RETREAT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY...AS
SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO
THE BOOT HEEL STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE. RIDGE RETREAT AND FALLING
HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT COOLER DAY WEST AND SOUTH...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A LITTLE WARMER AND ABOVE
EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. RIDGE RETREAT WILL PERMIT THE FIRST OF
THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
COUNTRY...WITH SPOTTIER COVERAGE OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
SUMMITS. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED.

FOR THURSDAY...WESTERN MARGIN RETREATING FURTHER EAST...WITH
GRADUAL PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY OF NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN
TURN...WITH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
FAVORED...ALONG WITH SUMMITS AND UPPER SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL START
INCREASING...KICKING OFF A TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL SHAVE A FEW MORE DEGREES
OFF DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL GENERALLY RUN NORMAL OR
A FEW DEGREES WARMER...CONTINUED WARMEST IN THE EAST. WITH
STRENGTHENING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE EAST...SOUTHERLY BREEZINESS
WILL BUILD UP MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZINESS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND...GENERAL COOLING TREND IN A
MOIST AND SHOWERY PATTERN ACROSS NEW MEXICO AS MOISTURE STREAMING
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO...HELPED BY A TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE BAJA
PENINSULA...WILL BLANKET ARIZONA AND MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...IN ADDITION TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE...AS WEAK COOL PUSH WORKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS THIS
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. WESTERLY BREEZES WILL STILL DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU
AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT NOT AS THOSE
EXPERIENCED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH...MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...VENTILATION RATES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE
FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY TODAY AS WINDS ALOFT AND MIXING HEIGHTS
WEAKEN. NORTH OF I-40...VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS STRONGER WEST WINDS ALOFT COMBINE WITH HIGHER MIXING
HEIGHTS.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
WEDNESDAY...THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
TEXAS AND MONSOON MOISTURE WILL START TO SEEP NORTHWARD INTO NM.
BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND NORTH
AND NORTHEAST TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON
MESA AS LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE SURGES NWWD AND COMBINES WITH THE
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY...CONTINUING TO
INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND THE RESULTING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF THEN
BEGIN TO DIFFER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO WHICH PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT NUMEROUS...PERHAPS HEAVY
RAINFALL. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AN ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT DIFFER WHETHER THE EAST WILL BE FAVORED WITH INFLUENCES FROM A
BACKDOOR FRONT OR IF THE WEST IS FAVORED WITH INFLUENCES FROM A
TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE GETTING PULLED UP FROM THE BAJA. AT ANY
RATE...A TREND BACK TO A WETTER TO MUCH WETTER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN
THE OFFING FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
WORK WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 011753 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1153 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AMPLE ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING AND SUFFICIENTLY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WILL RESULT IN GUSTY
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON IN MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH NOT AS WINDY AS
YESTERDAY. LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN THE WIND FORECAST AT KTCC DUE
TO ITS POSITION NEAR THE AXIS OF A LEE TROUGH. WINDS MAY BLOW MORE
OUT OF THE SE THERE THIS AFTERNOON.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...235 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL TRANSITION GRADUALLY
TO A WETTER AND CLOUDIER PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MIDWEEK SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SPREAD TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE STATE IN THE RUNNING FOR A SHOWER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...TURBULENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING...OVER THE TOP OF LARGE SPRAWLING RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. WEAK SURFACE FRONT REMAINS DRAPED
ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF NEW MEXICO LINKED UP TO SURFACE LOW
OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM
THE LOW ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE WEST TEXAS BIG
BEND COUNTRY.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE NEW MEXICO STORY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND...AND INTO THE FRONT END OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES EMERGING ON PACE OF UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE MOVEMENTS TOWARDS MIDWEEK. GOOD START STRENGTHENS
RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SHIFT OF RIDGE CORE
EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA ON
WEDNESDAY. UPSTREAM...SHORTWAVE BREAKING OUT OF INTERIOR WESTERN
CANADA WILL HELP SPAWN BROADER TROUGH EXTENDING WELL INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...AND THIS WILL
HOLD THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. PATTERN
WILL PROVIDE PATHS FOR NORTHBOUND MOISTURE SEEPAGE OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THIS
MAY HELP DELIVER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE NORTHBOUND PARADE
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK GETS
UNDERWAY...SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIG TO THE
GREAT BASIN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PHASING UP WITH ANY
TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS...AND MOVING ALL TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF PREFER A SHARPER AND MORE
MUSCULAR TROUGH MARCHING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE MUSCLE MUCH
FURTHER TO THE NORTH...AND TRAILS A BIG BAGGY TROUGH WITH MUCH
SLOWER AND LESS DYNAMIC DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. CAN PULL A
TROUGHIER PATTERN OUT OF BOTH SOLUTIONS...AND CAN SPLIT THE
DYNAMIC DIFFERENCE WITH A CLEAR CONSCIENCE TO GUIDE OUTER PERIOD
FORECAST THINKING FOR NOW...PENDING IMPROVED CONSENSUS IN FUTURE
RUNS.

FOR TODAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
A GOOD WAY TO START SEPTEMBER FOR CHAVES AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES...WITH
OTHER SPOTS ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS COMING CLOSE.
SOME COOLER AIR OOZING INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL HOLD
CLAYTON AND UNION COUNTY A LITTLE SHORT OF RECORD WITH SURFACE
WINDS PICKING UP AN EASTERLY COMPONENT IN CIRCULATION ABOUT
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
OVERHEAD...TURBULENT ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ALL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL
SOUTH AND WELL EAST OF NEW MEXICO.

FOR TUESDAY...COOLER AIR INTO THE EAST AS SURFACE LOW SHIFT TO THE
TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY AND USHERS IN SOME REDUCED TEMPERATURES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN BROADLY
3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS...A LITTLE WARMER
STILL IN THE EAST. TURBULENT BUT NOT STRONG ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD
WILL RUN ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER...AND MAY HELP TOUCH OFF A
QUICK ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS...AND IN NORTHERN UNION COUNTY...WITH VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...WITH SKIES OTHERWISE
SUNNY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WESTERN MARGINS OF RIDGE CORE WILL BEGIN TO
RETREAT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY...AS
SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO
THE BOOT HEEL STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE. RIDGE RETREAT AND FALLING
HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT COOLER DAY WEST AND SOUTH...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A LITTLE WARMER AND ABOVE
EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. RIDGE RETREAT WILL PERMIT THE FIRST OF
THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
COUNTRY...WITH SPOTTIER COVERAGE OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
SUMMITS. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED.

FOR THURSDAY...WESTERN MARGIN RETREATING FURTHER EAST...WITH
GRADUAL PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY OF NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN
TURN...WITH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
FAVORED...ALONG WITH SUMMITS AND UPPER SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL START
INCREASING...KICKING OFF A TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL SHAVE A FEW MORE DEGREES
OFF DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL GENERALLY RUN NORMAL OR
A FEW DEGREES WARMER...CONTINUED WARMEST IN THE EAST. WITH
STRENGTHENING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE EAST...SOUTHERLY BREEZINESS
WILL BUILD UP MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZINESS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND...GENERAL COOLING TREND IN A
MOIST AND SHOWERY PATTERN ACROSS NEW MEXICO AS MOISTURE STREAMING
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO...HELPED BY A TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE BAJA
PENINSULA...WILL BLANKET ARIZONA AND MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...IN ADDITION TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE...AS WEAK COOL PUSH WORKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS THIS
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. WESTERLY BREEZES WILL STILL DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU
AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT NOT AS THOSE
EXPERIENCED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH...MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...VENTILATION RATES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE
FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY TODAY AS WINDS ALOFT AND MIXING HEIGHTS
WEAKEN. NORTH OF I-40...VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS STRONGER WEST WINDS ALOFT COMBINE WITH HIGHER MIXING
HEIGHTS.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
WEDNESDAY...THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
TEXAS AND MONSOON MOISTURE WILL START TO SEEP NORTHWARD INTO NM.
BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND NORTH
AND NORTHEAST TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON
MESA AS LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE SURGES NWWD AND COMBINES WITH THE
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY...CONTINUING TO
INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND THE RESULTING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF THEN
BEGIN TO DIFFER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO WHICH PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT NUMEROUS...PERHAPS HEAVY
RAINFALL. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AN ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT DIFFER WHETHER THE EAST WILL BE FAVORED WITH INFLUENCES FROM A
BACKDOOR FRONT OR IF THE WEST IS FAVORED WITH INFLUENCES FROM A
TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE GETTING PULLED UP FROM THE BAJA. AT ANY
RATE...A TREND BACK TO A WETTER TO MUCH WETTER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN
THE OFFING FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
WORK WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 011134 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
534 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. WITH UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR KELP TODAY...VERY DRY WESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM. BREEZY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR NRN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL AND NE HIGHLANDS
WITH WEAK SFC LEE TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE OVER NERN PLAINS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...235 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL TRANSITION GRADUALLY
TO A WETTER AND CLOUDIER PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MIDWEEK SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SPREAD TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE STATE IN THE RUNNING FOR A SHOWER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...TURBULENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING...OVER THE TOP OF LARGE SPRAWLING RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. WEAK SURFACE FRONT REMAINS DRAPED
ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF NEW MEXICO LINKED UP TO SURFACE LOW
OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM
THE LOW ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE WEST TEXAS BIG
BEND COUNTRY.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE NEW MEXICO STORY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND...AND INTO THE FRONT END OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES EMERGING ON PACE OF UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE MOVEMENTS TOWARDS MIDWEEK. GOOD START STRENGTHENS
RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SHIFT OF RIDGE CORE
EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA ON
WEDNESDAY. UPSTREAM...SHORTWAVE BREAKING OUT OF INTERIOR WESTERN
CANADA WILL HELP SPAWN BROADER TROUGH EXTENDING WELL INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...AND THIS WILL
HOLD THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. PATTERN
WILL PROVIDE PATHS FOR NORTHBOUND MOISTURE SEEPAGE OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THIS
MAY HELP DELIVER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE NORTHBOUND PARADE
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK GETS
UNDERWAY...SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIG TO THE
GREAT BASIN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PHASING UP WITH ANY
TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS...AND MOVING ALL TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF PREFER A SHARPER AND MORE
MUSCULAR TROUGH MARCHING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE MUSCLE MUCH
FURTHER TO THE NORTH...AND TRAILS A BIG BAGGY TROUGH WITH MUCH
SLOWER AND LESS DYNAMIC DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. CAN PULL A
TROUGHIER PATTERN OUT OF BOTH SOLUTIONS...AND CAN SPLIT THE
DYNAMIC DIFFERENCE WITH A CLEAR CONSCIENCE TO GUIDE OUTER PERIOD
FORECAST THINKING FOR NOW...PENDING IMPROVED CONSENSUS IN FUTURE
RUNS.

FOR TODAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
A GOOD WAY TO START SEPTEMBER FOR CHAVES AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES...WITH
OTHER SPOTS ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS COMING CLOSE.
SOME COOLER AIR OOZING INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL HOLD
CLAYTON AND UNION COUNTY A LITTLE SHORT OF RECORD WITH SURFACE
WINDS PICKING UP AN EASTERLY COMPONENT IN CIRCULATION ABOUT
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
OVERHEAD...TURBULENT ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ALL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL
SOUTH AND WELL EAST OF NEW MEXICO.

FOR TUESDAY...COOLER AIR INTO THE EAST AS SURFACE LOW SHIFT TO THE
TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY AND USHERS IN SOME REDUCED TEMPERATURES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN BROADLY
3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS...A LITTLE WARMER
STILL IN THE EAST. TURBULENT BUT NOT STRONG ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD
WILL RUN ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER...AND MAY HELP TOUCH OFF A
QUICK ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS...AND IN NORTHERN UNION COUNTY...WITH VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...WITH SKIES OTHERWISE
SUNNY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WESTERN MARGINS OF RIDGE CORE WILL BEGIN TO
RETREAT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY...AS
SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO
THE BOOT HEEL STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE. RIDGE RETREAT AND FALLING
HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT COOLER DAY WEST AND SOUTH...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A LITTLE WARMER AND ABOVE
EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. RIDGE RETREAT WILL PERMIT THE FIRST OF
THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
COUNTRY...WITH SPOTTIER COVERAGE OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
SUMMITS. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED.

FOR THURSDAY...WESTERN MARGIN RETREATING FURTHER EAST...WITH
GRADUAL PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY OF NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN
TURN...WITH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
FAVORED...ALONG WITH SUMMITS AND UPPER SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL START
INCREASING...KICKING OFF A TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL SHAVE A FEW MORE DEGREES
OFF DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL GENERALLY RUN NORMAL OR
A FEW DEGREES WARMER...CONTINUED WARMEST IN THE EAST. WITH
STRENGTHENING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE EAST...SOUTHERLY BREEZINESS
WILL BUILD UP MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZINESS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND...GENERAL COOLING TREND IN A
MOIST AND SHOWERY PATTERN ACROSS NEW MEXICO AS MOISTURE STREAMING
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO...HELPED BY A TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE BAJA
PENINSULA...WILL BLANKET ARIZONA AND MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...IN ADDITION TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE...AS WEAK COOL PUSH WORKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS THIS
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. WESTERLY BREEZES WILL STILL DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU
AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT NOT AS THOSE
EXPERIENCED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH...MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...VENTILATION RATES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE
FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY TODAY AS WINDS ALOFT AND MIXING HEIGHTS
WEAKEN. NORTH OF I-40...VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS STRONGER WEST WINDS ALOFT COMBINE WITH HIGHER MIXING
HEIGHTS.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
WEDNESDAY...THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
TEXAS AND MONSOON MOISTURE WILL START TO SEEP NORTHWARD INTO NM.
BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND NORTH
AND NORTHEAST TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON
MESA AS LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE SURGES NWWD AND COMBINES WITH THE
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY...CONTINUING TO
INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND THE RESULTING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF THEN
BEGIN TO DIFFER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO WHICH PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT NUMEROUS...PERHAPS HEAVY
RAINFALL. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AN ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT DIFFER WHETHER THE EAST WILL BE FAVORED WITH INFLUENCES FROM A
BACKDOOR FRONT OR IF THE WEST IS FAVORED WITH INFLUENCES FROM A
TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE GETTING PULLED UP FROM THE BAJA. AT ANY
RATE...A TREND BACK TO A WETTER TO MUCH WETTER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN
THE OFFING FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
WORK WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHY











000
FXUS65 KABQ 010835
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
235 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL TRANSITION GRADUALLY
TO A WETTER AND CLOUDIER PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MIDWEEK SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SPREAD TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE STATE IN THE RUNNING FOR A SHOWER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...TURBULENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING...OVER THE TOP OF LARGE SPRAWLING RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. WEAK SURFACE FRONT REMAINS DRAPED
ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF NEW MEXICO LINKED UP TO SURFACE LOW
OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM
THE LOW ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE WEST TEXAS BIG
BEND COUNTRY.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE NEW MEXICO STORY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND...AND INTO THE FRONT END OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES EMERGING ON PACE OF UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE MOVEMENTS TOWARDS MIDWEEK. GOOD START STRENGTHENS
RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SHIFT OF RIDGE CORE
EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA ON
WEDNESDAY. UPSTREAM...SHORTWAVE BREAKING OUT OF INTERIOR WESTERN
CANADA WILL HELP SPAWN BROADER TROUGH EXTENDING WELL INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...AND THIS WILL
HOLD THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. PATTERN
WILL PROVIDE PATHS FOR NORTHBOUND MOISTURE SEEPAGE OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THIS
MAY HELP DELIVER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE NORTHBOUND PARADE
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK GETS
UNDERWAY...SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIG TO THE
GREAT BASIN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PHASING UP WITH ANY
TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS...AND MOVING ALL TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF PREFER A SHARPER AND MORE
MUSCULAR TROUGH MARCHING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE MUSCLE MUCH
FURTHER TO THE NORTH...AND TRAILS A BIG BAGGY TROUGH WITH MUCH
SLOWER AND LESS DYNAMIC DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. CAN PULL A
TROUGHIER PATTERN OUT OF BOTH SOLUTIONS...AND CAN SPLIT THE
DYNAMIC DIFFERENCE WITH A CLEAR CONSCIENCE TO GUIDE OUTER PERIOD
FORECAST THINKING FOR NOW...PENDING IMPROVED CONSENSUS IN FUTURE
RUNS.

FOR TODAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
A GOOD WAY TO START SEPTEMBER FOR CHAVES AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES...WITH
OTHER SPOTS ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS COMING CLOSE.
SOME COOLER AIR OOZING INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL HOLD
CLAYTON AND UNION COUNTY A LITTLE SHORT OF RECORD WITH SURFACE
WINDS PICKING UP AN EASTERLY COMPONENT IN CIRCULATION ABOUT
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
OVERHEAD...TURBULENT ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ALL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL
SOUTH AND WELL EAST OF NEW MEXICO.

FOR TUESDAY...COOLER AIR INTO THE EAST AS SURFACE LOW SHIFT TO THE
TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY AND USHERS IN SOME REDUCED TEMPERATURES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN BROADLY
3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS...A LITTLE WARMER
STILL IN THE EAST. TURBULENT BUT NOT STRONG ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD
WILL RUN ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER...AND MAY HELP TOUCH OFF A
QUICK ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS...AND IN NORTHERN UNION COUNTY...WITH VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...WITH SKIES OTHERWISE
SUNNY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WESTERN MARGINS OF RIDGE CORE WILL BEGIN TO
RETREAT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY...AS
SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO
THE BOOT HEEL STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE. RIDGE RETREAT AND FALLING
HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT COOLER DAY WEST AND SOUTH...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A LITTLE WARMER AND ABOVE
EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. RIDGE RETREAT WILL PERMIT THE FIRST OF
THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
COUNTRY...WITH SPOTTIER COVERAGE OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
SUMMITS. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED.

FOR THURSDAY...WESTERN MARGIN RETREATING FURTHER EAST...WITH
GRADUAL PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY OF NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN
TURN...WITH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
FAVORED...ALONG WITH SUMMITS AND UPPER SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL START
INCREASING...KICKING OFF A TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL SHAVE A FEW MORE DEGREES
OFF DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL GENERALLY RUN NORMAL OR
A FEW DEGREES WARMER...CONTINUED WARMEST IN THE EAST. WITH
STRENGTHENING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE EAST...SOUTHERLY BREEZINESS
WILL BUILD UP MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZINESS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND...GENERAL COOLING TREND IN A
MOIST AND SHOWERY PATTERN ACROSS NEW MEXICO AS MOISTURE STREAMING
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO...HELPED BY A TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE BAJA
PENINSULA...WILL BLANKET ARIZONA AND MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...IN ADDITION TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE...AS WEAK COOL PUSH WORKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS THIS
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. WESTERLY BREEZES WILL STILL DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU
AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT NOT AS THOSE
EXPERIENCED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH...MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...VENTILATION RATES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE
FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY TODAY AS WINDS ALOFT AND MIXING HEIGHTS
WEAKEN. NORTH OF I-40...VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS STRONGER WEST WINDS ALOFT COMBINE WITH HIGHER MIXING
HEIGHTS.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
WEDNESDAY...THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
TEXAS AND MONSOON MOISTURE WILL START TO SEEP NORTHWARD INTO NM.
BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND NORTH
AND NORTHEAST TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON
MESA AS LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE SURGES NWWD AND COMBINES WITH THE
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY...CONTINUING TO
INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND THE RESULTING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF THEN
BEGIN TO DIFFER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO WHICH PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT NUMEROUS...PERHAPS HEAVY
RAINFALL. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AN ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT DIFFER WHETHER THE EAST WILL BE FAVORED WITH INFLUENCES FROM A
BACKDOOR FRONT OR IF THE WEST IS FAVORED WITH INFLUENCES FROM A
TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE GETTING PULLED UP FROM THE BAJA. AT ANY
RATE...A TREND BACK TO A WETTER TO MUCH WETTER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN
THE OFFING FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
WORK WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO OBSERVE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE
SUBSIDED...AND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

52

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  89  54  92  55 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  84  45  87  45 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  85  49  86  50 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  86  49  88  49 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  82  49  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  86  51  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  84  50  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  91  54  92  54 /   0   0   5   0
CHAMA...........................  79  42  82  42 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  84  56  84  57 /   0   0   5   0
PECOS...........................  82  54  83  54 /   0   0   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  81  47  82  49 /   0   0   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  73  44  73  47 /   0   0   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  78  40  77  42 /   0   0   5   5
TAOS............................  84  45  85  46 /   0   0   5   0
MORA............................  82  49  81  51 /   0   0   5   5
ESPANOLA........................  90  55  90  54 /   0   0   5   0
SANTA FE........................  85  56  86  56 /   0   0   5   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  89  54  89  55 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  89  61  90  61 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  91  64  92  64 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  92  61  93  62 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  93  62  93  63 /   0   0   5   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  91  59  92  59 /   0   0   5   0
RIO RANCHO......................  92  62  93  62 /   0   0   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  95  63  96  63 /   0   0   5   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  88  57  89  58 /   0   0   5   0
TIJERAS.........................  87  57  88  58 /   0   0   5   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  88  49  88  50 /   0   0   5   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  86  56  85  56 /   0   0   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  87  57  88  58 /   0   0   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  89  61  90  61 /   0   0   5   0
RUIDOSO.........................  85  57  85  56 /   0   0   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  86  51  82  55 /   0   5   5   5
RATON...........................  89  50  87  51 /   0   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  90  52  87  53 /   0   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  87  52  85  53 /   0   0   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  90  59  87  62 /   0   5   5   5
ROY.............................  89  56  85  58 /   0   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  95  62  91  64 /   0   0   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  94  64  91  63 /   0   0   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  99  62  94  65 /   0   0   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  97  62  93  63 /   0   0   5   5
PORTALES........................  98  63  94  65 /   0   0   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  98  64  95  65 /   0   0   5   0
ROSWELL......................... 101  66  98  67 /   0   0   5   0
PICACHO.........................  92  62  91  61 /   0   0   5   0
ELK.............................  87  61  87  59 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHY








000
FXUS65 KABQ 010835
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
235 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM WEATHER ACROSS NEW MEXICO WILL TRANSITION GRADUALLY
TO A WETTER AND CLOUDIER PATTERN THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK
AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND. MIDWEEK SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST WILL
SPREAD TO MUCH OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO THROUGH
FRIDAY...WITH MUCH OF THE STATE IN THE RUNNING FOR A SHOWER
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CURRENTLY...TURBULENT WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO THIS MORNING...OVER THE TOP OF LARGE SPRAWLING RIDGE ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE U.S. WEAK SURFACE FRONT REMAINS DRAPED
ALONG THE NORTHERN BORDER OF NEW MEXICO LINKED UP TO SURFACE LOW
OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE. WEAK TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD FROM
THE LOW ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO THE WEST TEXAS BIG
BEND COUNTRY.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE NEW MEXICO STORY THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND WEEKEND...AND INTO THE FRONT END OF THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. SOME DIFFERENCES EMERGING ON PACE OF UPPER
LEVEL FEATURE MOVEMENTS TOWARDS MIDWEEK. GOOD START STRENGTHENS
RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH SHIFT OF RIDGE CORE
EASTWARD TO THE TENNESSEE RIVER VALLEY ACROSS NORTHERN ALABAMA ON
WEDNESDAY. UPSTREAM...SHORTWAVE BREAKING OUT OF INTERIOR WESTERN
CANADA WILL HELP SPAWN BROADER TROUGH EXTENDING WELL INTO THE
EASTERN PACIFIC OFF THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST...AND THIS WILL
HOLD THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN STATIONARY THROUGH FRIDAY. PATTERN
WILL PROVIDE PATHS FOR NORTHBOUND MOISTURE SEEPAGE OUT OF NORTHERN
MEXICO INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION...TROPICAL SYSTEM WILL TAKE SHAPE OFF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF THE BAJA PENINSULA EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...AND THIS
MAY HELP DELIVER ADDITIONAL MOISTURE TO THE NORTHBOUND PARADE
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. AS THE FOLLOWING WORK WEEK GETS
UNDERWAY...SHORTWAVE OUT OF THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL DIG TO THE
GREAT BASIN BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING...PHASING UP WITH ANY
TROPICAL STORM REMNANTS...AND MOVING ALL TO THE EAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO. EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF PREFER A SHARPER AND MORE
MUSCULAR TROUGH MARCHING THROUGH NORTHERN NEW MEXICO TUESDAY NIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY...WHILE DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION KEEPS THE MUSCLE MUCH
FURTHER TO THE NORTH...AND TRAILS A BIG BAGGY TROUGH WITH MUCH
SLOWER AND LESS DYNAMIC DRIFT ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST. CAN PULL A
TROUGHIER PATTERN OUT OF BOTH SOLUTIONS...AND CAN SPLIT THE
DYNAMIC DIFFERENCE WITH A CLEAR CONSCIENCE TO GUIDE OUTER PERIOD
FORECAST THINKING FOR NOW...PENDING IMPROVED CONSENSUS IN FUTURE
RUNS.

FOR TODAY...ANOTHER WARM DAY ON TAP WITH RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
A GOOD WAY TO START SEPTEMBER FOR CHAVES AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES...WITH
OTHER SPOTS ON THE EASTERN AND NORTHEASTERN PLAINS COMING CLOSE.
SOME COOLER AIR OOZING INTO THE EXTREME NORTHEAST PLAINS WILL HOLD
CLAYTON AND UNION COUNTY A LITTLE SHORT OF RECORD WITH SURFACE
WINDS PICKING UP AN EASTERLY COMPONENT IN CIRCULATION ABOUT
SURFACE LOW OVER THE SOUTHERN TEXAS PANHANDLE.
OVERHEAD...TURBULENT ZONAL FLOW OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO WILL
TAPER OFF THROUGH THE DAY...WITH ALL THE SHOWER ACTIVITY WELL
SOUTH AND WELL EAST OF NEW MEXICO.

FOR TUESDAY...COOLER AIR INTO THE EAST AS SURFACE LOW SHIFT TO THE
TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY AND USHERS IN SOME REDUCED TEMPERATURES OUT
OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL STILL RUN BROADLY
3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS...A LITTLE WARMER
STILL IN THE EAST. TURBULENT BUT NOT STRONG ZONAL FLOW OVERHEAD
WILL RUN ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER...AND MAY HELP TOUCH OFF A
QUICK ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER OR TWO ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN SUMMITS...AND IN NORTHERN UNION COUNTY...WITH VERY LITTLE
RAINFALL. WINDS WILL BE GENERALLY LIGHT...WITH SKIES OTHERWISE
SUNNY.

FOR WEDNESDAY...WESTERN MARGINS OF RIDGE CORE WILL BEGIN TO
RETREAT EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO DURING THE DAY...AS
SURFACE TROUGH FROM NORTHWEST KANSAS ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO TO
THE BOOT HEEL STARTS TO TAKE SHAPE. RIDGE RETREAT AND FALLING
HEIGHTS WILL SUPPORT A SOMEWHAT COOLER DAY WEST AND SOUTH...WITH
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES RUNNING 3 TO 8 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...TEMPERATURES WILL RUN A LITTLE WARMER AND ABOVE
EARLY SEPTEMBER NORMALS. RIDGE RETREAT WILL PERMIT THE FIRST OF
THE SHOWER DEVELOPMENT OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL HIGH
COUNTRY...WITH SPOTTIER COVERAGE OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
SUMMITS. ANY SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL WILL BE HIGHLY LOCALIZED.

FOR THURSDAY...WESTERN MARGIN RETREATING FURTHER EAST...WITH
GRADUAL PICK UP THROUGH THE DAY OF NORTHBOUND MOISTURE TRANSPORT
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO INTO ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO.
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD IN
TURN...WITH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
FAVORED...ALONG WITH SUMMITS AND UPPER SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL START
INCREASING...KICKING OFF A TREND THAT WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. CLOUD COVER AND RAINFALL WILL SHAVE A FEW MORE DEGREES
OFF DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES...WHICH WILL GENERALLY RUN NORMAL OR
A FEW DEGREES WARMER...CONTINUED WARMEST IN THE EAST. WITH
STRENGTHENING SURFACE TROUGH IN THE EAST...SOUTHERLY BREEZINESS
WILL BUILD UP MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THURSDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZINESS CONTINUING THROUGH MUCH OF THE
EVENING.

OUTLOOK...FRIDAY THROUGH WEEKEND...GENERAL COOLING TREND IN A
MOIST AND SHOWERY PATTERN ACROSS NEW MEXICO AS MOISTURE STREAMING
OUT OF NORTHERN MEXICO...HELPED BY A TROPICAL SYSTEM OFF THE BAJA
PENINSULA...WILL BLANKET ARIZONA AND MUCH OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SURFACE LOW OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO WILL
PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FOCUS FOR SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE NORTHEAST
HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS...IN ADDITION TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE STATE...AS WEAK COOL PUSH WORKS OUT OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS
STATES INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO.

SHY

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAKER WINDS ALOFT WILL TRANSLATE TO LIGHTER SURFACE WINDS THIS
LABOR DAY HOLIDAY. WESTERLY BREEZES WILL STILL DEVELOP DURING THE
LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHWEST PLATEAU
AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...BUT NOT AS THOSE
EXPERIENCED SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST AREA WILL BE AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE FOR EARLY
SEPTEMBER.

CLOSER TO THE CENTER OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH...MAINLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40...VENTILATION RATES WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE INTO THE
FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY TODAY AS WINDS ALOFT AND MIXING HEIGHTS
WEAKEN. NORTH OF I-40...VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENTILATION RATES ARE
ANTICIPATED AS STRONGER WEST WINDS ALOFT COMBINE WITH HIGHER MIXING
HEIGHTS.

AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST
WEDNESDAY...THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD INTO
TEXAS AND MONSOON MOISTURE WILL START TO SEEP NORTHWARD INTO NM.
BEST CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FROM THE
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND NORTH
AND NORTHEAST TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND RATON
MESA AS LOW LEVEL GULF MOISTURE SURGES NWWD AND COMBINES WITH THE
INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE.

MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THURSDAY...CONTINUING TO
INCREASE MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH AND THE RESULTING THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY THURSDAY AND INTO FRIDAY. GFS AND ECMWF THEN
BEGIN TO DIFFER FOR THE WEEKEND WITH RESPECT TO WHICH PORTIONS OF
THE FORECAST AREA HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT NUMEROUS...PERHAPS HEAVY
RAINFALL. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT AN ACTIVE MONSOON
PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
BUT DIFFER WHETHER THE EAST WILL BE FAVORED WITH INFLUENCES FROM A
BACKDOOR FRONT OR IF THE WEST IS FAVORED WITH INFLUENCES FROM A
TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE GETTING PULLED UP FROM THE BAJA. AT ANY
RATE...A TREND BACK TO A WETTER TO MUCH WETTER WEATHER PATTERN IS IN
THE OFFING FOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NM FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THIS
WORK WEEK INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO OBSERVE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE
SUBSIDED...AND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

52

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  89  54  92  55 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  84  45  87  45 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  85  49  86  50 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  86  49  88  49 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  82  49  83  49 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  86  51  87  50 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  84  50  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  91  54  92  54 /   0   0   5   0
CHAMA...........................  79  42  82  42 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  84  56  84  57 /   0   0   5   0
PECOS...........................  82  54  83  54 /   0   0   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  81  47  82  49 /   0   0   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  73  44  73  47 /   0   0   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  78  40  77  42 /   0   0   5   5
TAOS............................  84  45  85  46 /   0   0   5   0
MORA............................  82  49  81  51 /   0   0   5   5
ESPANOLA........................  90  55  90  54 /   0   0   5   0
SANTA FE........................  85  56  86  56 /   0   0   5   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  89  54  89  55 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  89  61  90  61 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  91  64  92  64 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  92  61  93  62 /   0   0   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  93  62  93  63 /   0   0   5   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  91  59  92  59 /   0   0   5   0
RIO RANCHO......................  92  62  93  62 /   0   0   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  95  63  96  63 /   0   0   5   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  88  57  89  58 /   0   0   5   0
TIJERAS.........................  87  57  88  58 /   0   0   5   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  88  49  88  50 /   0   0   5   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  86  56  85  56 /   0   0   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  87  57  88  58 /   0   0   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  89  61  90  61 /   0   0   5   0
RUIDOSO.........................  85  57  85  56 /   0   0   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  86  51  82  55 /   0   5   5   5
RATON...........................  89  50  87  51 /   0   5   5   5
SPRINGER........................  90  52  87  53 /   0   5   5   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  87  52  85  53 /   0   0   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  90  59  87  62 /   0   5   5   5
ROY.............................  89  56  85  58 /   0   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  95  62  91  64 /   0   0   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  94  64  91  63 /   0   0   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  99  62  94  65 /   0   0   5   0
CLOVIS..........................  97  62  93  63 /   0   0   5   5
PORTALES........................  98  63  94  65 /   0   0   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  98  64  95  65 /   0   0   5   0
ROSWELL......................... 101  66  98  67 /   0   0   5   0
PICACHO.........................  92  62  91  61 /   0   0   5   0
ELK.............................  87  61  87  59 /   0   0   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHY









000
FXUS65 KABQ 010517
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1117 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO OBSERVE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE
SUBSIDED...AND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...258 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY IN THE SHORT TERM THEN INCREASING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...DESPITE A COUPLE OF
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONTS INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH CENTER WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
BE MORE OF A SEEPAGE RATHER THAN A SUDDEN BURST. BUT BY THE END OF
THE WEEK PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...THANKS ALSO TO A DECENT BACK DOOR FRONT INTO
THE EAST WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARM TO HOT THE RULE TODAY. ONLY SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER
THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES. GUSTY WINDS ALSO THE STORY TODAY.
NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THEY WILL HOLD UP SOME ON THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN TOPS. WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL DROP SHARPLY WITH 30 TO 40 DEGREE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES COMMON.

IT WILL REMAIN BASICALLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A FEW RECORD HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGED AGAIN ON MONDAY.
BUT HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS EXTREME IN THE NORTHEAST ON LABOR DAY DUE
TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SNEAKING INTO THIS AREA. HIGHS WILL BE A
HAND FULL OF DEGREES LOWER. A BETTER EFFORT MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE
BACK DOOR FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MORE OVER ALL
THE EASTERN PLAINS. BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BEHIND THE FRONTS
AND NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS FORECAST. THERE IS A HINT OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CREEPING INTO THE STATE TUESDAY...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR SOME
VIRGA SHOWERS OVER THE GILA AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

THE MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SHARPER INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE POISED TO
ENTER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ADD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO INCREASE IN THE EAST ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. THAT
WILL GET THE EAST INVOLVED IN THE PRECIPITATION...WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUING. THE UPPER HIGH WILL TRY AND BUILD BACK OVER NM DURING
THIS TIME...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH WILL KEEP
CONVECTION GOING OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...THEN LESS WIND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALL ZONES ON
MONDAY AND ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY. A PATTERN CHANGE MID WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. FEW
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

BROAD TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
ROCKIES...WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGER
GRADIENT IN ADDITION TO LEE TROUGHING HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE STATE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BECOMING MAINLY WEST TO
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO BE MOSTLY FAIR
TO GOOD WITH THE WORST RECOVERIES NEAR THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS.

LITTLE CHANGE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH DRIFTS TO THE NORTH OVER NEW MEXICO. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
BUT TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT AND WINDS DECREASE ALL ZONES ON MONDAY
AND MAINLY EAST ON TUESDAY WHERE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST. VENTILATION DECREASES EACH DAY BUT REMAINS GENERALLY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT. MOSTLY FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES...WITH
AREAS OF EXCELLENT ACROSS THE EAST.

BY LATE TUESDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH WITH DEEPER TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST IN PLACE BY
WEDNESDAY AND MOVING LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE UPPER
HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF NEW MEXICO. AT THIS POINT...ARIZONA LOOKS
FAVORED FOR THE MONSOON PLUME ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ISOLATED WETTING
RAIN COULD DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN. THE PATTERN
SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF WETTING
RAIN DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND...MAINLY CENTRAL AND
WEST ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN EXPANDING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. LATEST RUN OF THE GFS LOOKS WETTER AND MORE IN LINE
WITH THE EUROPEAN...AND BOTH MODELS NOW ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH MOIST
RETURN FLOW INTO THE EAST STARTING FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...
THUS GRIDS MODIFIED TO REFLECT THIS. VENTILATION REMAINS GOOD TO
EXCELLENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT DECREASES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH FAIR VALUES SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY GOOD
TO EXCELLENT RECOVERIES BY THE WEEKEND. 05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 010517
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1117 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO OBSERVE VFR
CONDITIONS WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS HAVE
SUBSIDED...AND WILL NOT BE AS STRONG ON MONDAY. OTHERWISE EXPECT
ANOTHER ROUND OF FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS TO DEVELOP
MONDAY AFTERNOON.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...258 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY IN THE SHORT TERM THEN INCREASING MOISTURE AND PRECIPITATION
CHANCES FROM WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO WEAKEN THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS OVER THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT. DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY...DESPITE A COUPLE OF
WEAK BACK DOOR FRONTS INTO THE NORTHEAST TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY THE HIGH CENTER WILL HAVE SHIFTED EAST ALLOWING
MOISTURE TO ARRIVE FROM THE SOUTH. THIS INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL
BE MORE OF A SEEPAGE RATHER THAN A SUDDEN BURST. BUT BY THE END OF
THE WEEK PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE WIDESPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...THANKS ALSO TO A DECENT BACK DOOR FRONT INTO
THE EAST WITH ADDED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARM TO HOT THE RULE TODAY. ONLY SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER
THE NORTH AND SOUTHEAST ZONES. GUSTY WINDS ALSO THE STORY TODAY.
NUMEROUS GUSTS OF 35 TO 40 MPH OBSERVED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE TONIGHT ALTHOUGH THEY WILL HOLD UP SOME ON THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN TOPS. WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL DROP SHARPLY WITH 30 TO 40 DEGREE DIURNAL TEMPERATURES COMMON.

IT WILL REMAIN BASICALLY DRY WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. A FEW RECORD HIGHS WILL BE CHALLENGED AGAIN ON MONDAY.
BUT HIGHS WILL NOT BE AS EXTREME IN THE NORTHEAST ON LABOR DAY DUE
TO A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SNEAKING INTO THIS AREA. HIGHS WILL BE A
HAND FULL OF DEGREES LOWER. A BETTER EFFORT MONDAY NIGHT FROM THE
BACK DOOR FRONT WILL DROP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES MORE OVER ALL
THE EASTERN PLAINS. BUT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING BEHIND THE FRONTS
AND NO MEASURABLE RAIN IS FORECAST. THERE IS A HINT OF MID LEVEL
MOISTURE CREEPING INTO THE STATE TUESDAY...PERHAPS ENOUGH FOR SOME
VIRGA SHOWERS OVER THE GILA AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

THE MOISTURE INCREASE WILL BE A LITTLE GREATER WEDNESDAY...WITH A
SHARPER INCREASE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY WILL BE OVER THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. A STRONGER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE POISED TO
ENTER EASTERN NEW MEXICO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL ADD LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO INCREASE IN THE EAST ALONG WITH UPSLOPE FLOW. THAT
WILL GET THE EAST INVOLVED IN THE PRECIPITATION...WITH WIDESPREAD
RAIN EXPECTED FRIDAY...WITH THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE WESTERN AND
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

NEXT WEEKEND WILL REMAIN ACTIVE WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND STORMS
CONTINUING. THE UPPER HIGH WILL TRY AND BUILD BACK OVER NM DURING
THIS TIME...BUT PLENTY OF MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE HIGH WILL KEEP
CONVECTION GOING OVER MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA. CHJ

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY...WARM AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE DAY...THEN LESS WIND AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALL ZONES ON
MONDAY AND ACROSS THE EAST ON TUESDAY. A PATTERN CHANGE MID WEEK
AND INTO THE WEEKEND WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN THE CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION LATE IN THE WORK WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. FEW
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST EXCEPT FOR SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD.

BROAD TROUGH WITH EMBEDDED SHORT WAVE IS CURRENTLY CROSSING THE
ROCKIES...WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO. THE STRONGER
GRADIENT IN ADDITION TO LEE TROUGHING HAS RESULTED IN GUSTY WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF
THE STATE. WINDS WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BECOMING MAINLY WEST TO
NORTHWEST AFTER MIDNIGHT. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES TO BE MOSTLY FAIR
TO GOOD WITH THE WORST RECOVERIES NEAR THE CENTRAL VALLEYS AND EAST
CENTRAL PLAINS.

LITTLE CHANGE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL
HIGH DRIFTS TO THE NORTH OVER NEW MEXICO. DRY CONDITIONS PERSIST
BUT TEMPERATURES COOL A BIT AND WINDS DECREASE ALL ZONES ON MONDAY
AND MAINLY EAST ON TUESDAY WHERE WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OR
NORTHWEST. VENTILATION DECREASES EACH DAY BUT REMAINS GENERALLY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT. MOSTLY FAIR TO GOOD OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES...WITH
AREAS OF EXCELLENT ACROSS THE EAST.

BY LATE TUESDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
WITH WITH DEEPER TROUGHING ALONG THE WEST COAST IN PLACE BY
WEDNESDAY AND MOVING LITTLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  THE UPPER
HIGH SHIFTS EAST OF NEW MEXICO. AT THIS POINT...ARIZONA LOOKS
FAVORED FOR THE MONSOON PLUME ON WEDNESDAY...BUT ISOLATED WETTING
RAIN COULD DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN. THE PATTERN
SHIFTS TO THE EAST ON THURSDAY WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF WETTING
RAIN DEVELOPING AND PERSISTING INTO THE WEEKEND...MAINLY CENTRAL AND
WEST ZONES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THEN EXPANDING TO THE NORTHEAST OVER
THE WEEKEND. LATEST RUN OF THE GFS LOOKS WETTER AND MORE IN LINE
WITH THE EUROPEAN...AND BOTH MODELS NOW ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH MOIST
RETURN FLOW INTO THE EAST STARTING FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND...
THUS GRIDS MODIFIED TO REFLECT THIS. VENTILATION REMAINS GOOD TO
EXCELLENT WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BUT DECREASES FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY...WITH FAIR VALUES SOUTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. OVERNIGHT RH
RECOVERIES TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY GOOD
TO EXCELLENT RECOVERIES BY THE WEEKEND. 05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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