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000
FXUS65 KABQ 201149 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
449 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY DENSE FZFG WITH VSBYS NEAR 1/2SM AND VLIFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KTCC AND KGUP FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS THIS
MORNING. KFMN HAS SEEN LIFR LOW CLOUDS BUT NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
FOG MAY LINGER IN A FEW AREAS THRU 18Z TODAY WITH NO NOTABLE
MIXING EXPECTED. PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO
EAST WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWER MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER RIDGE TOPS
AND THE EAST SLOPES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT JET
MAX APPROACHES THE STATE. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND MTN TOP
OBSCURATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WHEN HIGHS
SHOULD PEAK NEAR NORMAL TO AS MUCH AS 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE MONDAY WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO DEEPEN AS IT CROSSES MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL FAVOR THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...NORTHEAST AREAS
AND POSSIBLY EAST CENTRAL AREAS FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. FURTHER...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO
WINDY IN MANY AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CANADIAN MODEL IS A LITTLE BEHIND...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A DEEPENING TROUGH BRINGING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...NE AREAS AND
POSSIBLY E CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH A SPEED MAXIMUM IN THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL CROSS
FROM OUR NW CORNER TO OUR SE CORNER. IT SHOULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY WITH 45-55 KT WINDS AT 700 MB. THE 700 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PEAK MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS IN THE 50-70 KT RANGE.
BUOYANT MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MECHANICAL MIXING WITH THE
COLD FRONT COULD ENABLE SOME POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
REACH THE SURFACE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ALSO...STRONG N WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NE AND E CENTRAL PLAINS.

WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ONLY TO STRENGTHEN
AGAIN ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS WEST WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN AND A SHARP
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY
CROSS THE CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEPTH AND
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. IT COULD PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS AS EARLY AS CHRISTMAS
DAY...BEFORE SPREADING PRECIP INTO CENTRAL AREAS CHRISTMAS NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT MID LEVEL DRY AIRMASS SHIFTING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS TRENDED RIDGE TOP HUMIDITY RECOVERIES BELOW
35 PERCENT. THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
HELP TOP DOWN MOISTENING...AND TREND VALUES UPWARD THROUGH TODAY.
OTHERWISE...A WEAKENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS
ALOFT WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. STRONGER WINDS WILL APPROACH THE STATE TONIGHT
AND HELP INCREASE WINDS ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND IMMEDIATE EASTERN
SLOPES. EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT FOR THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU.

SUNDAY WILL TREND BREEZIER ALL AREAS AND WINDY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE TO
GOOD FROM FARMINGTON TO ABQ AND THE HIGH PLAINS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
TREND TEMPS THE WARMEST ON SUNDAY...WITH READINGS 5 TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE PLAINS. MIN RH VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE 35 PCT.

THE NOSE OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND CRANK UP THE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WILL SEE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...WITH
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...FOCUSING AROUND
TORRANCE AND GUADALUPE COUNTIES. COLD ADVECTION WITH THIS JET WILL
BEGIN TRENDING TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE NORTHERN TIER.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER IT DOES
APPEAR THINGS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE WETTER AND COLDER WITH A FARTHER
SOUTHWARD INCURSION OF THE POTENT UPPER JET. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS TO THE
RATON MESA AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. MUCH COLDER AIR IS SHOWN TO SLIDE
INTO THE STATE FOR TUESDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH CHRISTMAS IS
LOW...BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS
SEASON ENTERING THE STATE SOMEWHERE AROUND CHRISTMAS OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 201149 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
449 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
PATCHY DENSE FZFG WITH VSBYS NEAR 1/2SM AND VLIFR CIGS WILL
CONTINUE TO IMPACT KTCC AND KGUP FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS THIS
MORNING. KFMN HAS SEEN LIFR LOW CLOUDS BUT NO VSBY RESTRICTIONS.
FOG MAY LINGER IN A FEW AREAS THRU 18Z TODAY WITH NO NOTABLE
MIXING EXPECTED. PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS MOVING QUICKLY FROM WEST TO
EAST WILL GIVE WAY TO LOWER MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER RIDGE TOPS
AND THE EAST SLOPES OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY AS THE NEXT JET
MAX APPROACHES THE STATE. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AND MTN TOP
OBSCURATIONS CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN
OVERNIGHT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WHEN HIGHS
SHOULD PEAK NEAR NORMAL TO AS MUCH AS 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE MONDAY WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO DEEPEN AS IT CROSSES MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL FAVOR THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...NORTHEAST AREAS
AND POSSIBLY EAST CENTRAL AREAS FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. FURTHER...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO
WINDY IN MANY AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CANADIAN MODEL IS A LITTLE BEHIND...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A DEEPENING TROUGH BRINGING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...NE AREAS AND
POSSIBLY E CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH A SPEED MAXIMUM IN THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL CROSS
FROM OUR NW CORNER TO OUR SE CORNER. IT SHOULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY WITH 45-55 KT WINDS AT 700 MB. THE 700 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PEAK MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS IN THE 50-70 KT RANGE.
BUOYANT MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MECHANICAL MIXING WITH THE
COLD FRONT COULD ENABLE SOME POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
REACH THE SURFACE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ALSO...STRONG N WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NE AND E CENTRAL PLAINS.

WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ONLY TO STRENGTHEN
AGAIN ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS WEST WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN AND A SHARP
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY
CROSS THE CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEPTH AND
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. IT COULD PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS AS EARLY AS CHRISTMAS
DAY...BEFORE SPREADING PRECIP INTO CENTRAL AREAS CHRISTMAS NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT MID LEVEL DRY AIRMASS SHIFTING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS TRENDED RIDGE TOP HUMIDITY RECOVERIES BELOW
35 PERCENT. THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
HELP TOP DOWN MOISTENING...AND TREND VALUES UPWARD THROUGH TODAY.
OTHERWISE...A WEAKENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS
ALOFT WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. STRONGER WINDS WILL APPROACH THE STATE TONIGHT
AND HELP INCREASE WINDS ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND IMMEDIATE EASTERN
SLOPES. EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT FOR THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU.

SUNDAY WILL TREND BREEZIER ALL AREAS AND WINDY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE TO
GOOD FROM FARMINGTON TO ABQ AND THE HIGH PLAINS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
TREND TEMPS THE WARMEST ON SUNDAY...WITH READINGS 5 TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE PLAINS. MIN RH VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE 35 PCT.

THE NOSE OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND CRANK UP THE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WILL SEE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...WITH
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...FOCUSING AROUND
TORRANCE AND GUADALUPE COUNTIES. COLD ADVECTION WITH THIS JET WILL
BEGIN TRENDING TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE NORTHERN TIER.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER IT DOES
APPEAR THINGS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE WETTER AND COLDER WITH A FARTHER
SOUTHWARD INCURSION OF THE POTENT UPPER JET. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS TO THE
RATON MESA AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. MUCH COLDER AIR IS SHOWN TO SLIDE
INTO THE STATE FOR TUESDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH CHRISTMAS IS
LOW...BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS
SEASON ENTERING THE STATE SOMEWHERE AROUND CHRISTMAS OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$





000
FXUS65 KABQ 201034
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
334 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WHEN HIGHS
SHOULD PEAK NEAR NORMAL TO AS MUCH AS 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE MONDAY WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO DEEPEN AS IT CROSSES MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL FAVOR THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...NORTHEAST AREAS
AND POSSIBLY EAST CENTRAL AREAS FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. FURTHER...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO
WINDY IN MANY AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CANADIAN MODEL IS A LITTLE BEHIND...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A DEEPENING TROUGH BRINGING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...NE AREAS AND
POSSIBLY E CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH A SPEED MAXIMUM IN THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL CROSS
FROM OUR NW CORNER TO OUR SE CORNER. IT SHOULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY WITH 45-55 KT WINDS AT 700 MB. THE 700 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PEAK MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS IN THE 50-70 KT RANGE.
BUOYANT MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MECHANICAL MIXING WITH THE
COLD FRONT COULD ENABLE SOME POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
REACH THE SURFACE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ALSO...STRONG N WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NE AND E CENTRAL PLAINS.

WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ONLY TO STRENGTHEN
AGAIN ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS WEST WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN AND A SHARP
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY
CROSS THE CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEPTH AND
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. IT COULD PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS AS EARLY AS CHRISTMAS
DAY...BEFORE SPREADING PRECIP INTO CENTRAL AREAS CHRISTMAS NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT MID LEVEL DRY AIRMASS SHIFTING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS TRENDED RIDGE TOP HUMIDITY RECOVERIES BELOW
35 PERCENT. THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
HELP TOP DOWN MOISTENING...AND TREND VALUES UPWARD THROUGH TODAY.
OTHERWISE...A WEAKENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS
ALOFT WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. STRONGER WINDS WILL APPROACH THE STATE TONIGHT
AND HELP INCREASE WINDS ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND IMMEDIATE EASTERN
SLOPES. EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT FOR THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU.

SUNDAY WILL TREND BREEZIER ALL AREAS AND WINDY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE TO
GOOD FROM FARMINGTON TO ABQ AND THE HIGH PLAINS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
TREND TEMPS THE WARMEST ON SUNDAY...WITH READINGS 5 TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE PLAINS. MIN RH VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE 35 PCT.

THE NOSE OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND CRANK UP THE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WILL SEE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...WITH
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...FOCUSING AROUND
TORRANCE AND GUADALUPE COUNTIES. COLD ADVECTION WITH THIS JET WILL
BEGIN TRENDING TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE NORTHERN TIER.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER IT DOES
APPEAR THINGS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE WETTER AND COLDER WITH A FARTHER
SOUTHWARD INCURSION OF THE POTENT UPPER JET. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS TO THE
RATON MESA AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. MUCH COLDER AIR IS SHOWN TO SLIDE
INTO THE STATE FOR TUESDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH CHRISTMAS IS
LOW...BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS
SEASON ENTERING THE STATE SOMEWHERE AROUND CHRISTMAS OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO STILL BE THE RULE THROUGH END OF FCST PERIOD...
06Z SUN. HOWEVER AREAS OF IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS AND VSBY...
INCLUDING FZFG...DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL...W
CENTRAL AND NW NM AS OF TIME OF THIS ISSUANCE AND WILL LIKELY
EXPAND TO SOME DEGREE...THOUGH REMAINING CONTAINED WITHIN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. SOME MT OBSCURATIONS AS WELL IN THESE AREAS.
MOST IMPACTED WILL BE KGUP AND KTCC VICINITIES AND PERHAPS KFMN
UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z SAT. HAVE BEEFED UP LOW CIGS
AND FOG MENTIONED IN THOSE TAFS...EMPHASIZING KGUP AND KTCC.
THEREAFTER VFR AREAWIDE.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  44  24  46  30 /   0   0   5   5
DULCE...........................  41  13  40  19 /   5   5   5  20
CUBA............................  41  17  41  23 /   5   5   5  10
GALLUP..........................  44  21  47  26 /   0   0   5   5
EL MORRO........................  40  20  42  26 /   0   0   5   5
GRANTS..........................  44  17  47  25 /   0   0   0   5
QUEMADO.........................  41  26  43  29 /   0   0   0   5
GLENWOOD........................  54  27  58  31 /   0   0   0   5
CHAMA...........................  40  13  39  19 /   5  10  10  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  39  26  39  30 /   0   0   5  10
PECOS...........................  40  25  39  30 /   0   0   0   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  37  13  36  20 /   0   0  10  20
RED RIVER.......................  34  15  34  20 /   0   0  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  39   6  38  20 /   0   0  10  20
TAOS............................  40  15  40  23 /   0   0   5  10
MORA............................  45  23  43  30 /   0   0   5   5
ESPANOLA........................  43  24  43  27 /   0   0   5   5
SANTA FE........................  39  27  38  31 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  43  22  44  27 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  44  31  46  34 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  47  27  49  32 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  46  26  49  31 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  46  27  49  31 /   0   0   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  47  21  50  27 /   0   0   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  46  28  48  32 /   0   0   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  50  25  56  31 /   0   0   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  42  27  44  32 /   0   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  44  28  46  33 /   0   0   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  44  22  45  26 /   0   0   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  42  24  44  30 /   0   0   0   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  43  27  46  32 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  48  27  50  32 /   0   0   0   5
RUIDOSO.........................  46  26  48  32 /   0   0   0   5
CAPULIN.........................  45  22  49  29 /   0   0   5  10
RATON...........................  50  19  53  27 /   0   0   5  10
SPRINGER........................  51  21  54  28 /   0   0   0   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  49  23  52  32 /   0   0   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  52  26  59  34 /   0   0   5   5
ROY.............................  50  24  55  31 /   0   0   5   0
CONCHAS.........................  51  28  59  36 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  52  30  56  37 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  53  25  60  35 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  53  27  59  35 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  55  27  60  36 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  53  29  60  37 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  55  26  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  53  29  58  39 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  52  29  55  39 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS65 KABQ 201034
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
334 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WHEN HIGHS
SHOULD PEAK NEAR NORMAL TO AS MUCH AS 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE MONDAY WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO DEEPEN AS IT CROSSES MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL FAVOR THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...NORTHEAST AREAS
AND POSSIBLY EAST CENTRAL AREAS FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. FURTHER...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO
WINDY IN MANY AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CANADIAN MODEL IS A LITTLE BEHIND...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A DEEPENING TROUGH BRINGING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...NE AREAS AND
POSSIBLY E CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH A SPEED MAXIMUM IN THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL CROSS
FROM OUR NW CORNER TO OUR SE CORNER. IT SHOULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY WITH 45-55 KT WINDS AT 700 MB. THE 700 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PEAK MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS IN THE 50-70 KT RANGE.
BUOYANT MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MECHANICAL MIXING WITH THE
COLD FRONT COULD ENABLE SOME POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
REACH THE SURFACE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ALSO...STRONG N WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NE AND E CENTRAL PLAINS.

WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ONLY TO STRENGTHEN
AGAIN ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS WEST WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN AND A SHARP
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY
CROSS THE CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEPTH AND
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. IT COULD PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS AS EARLY AS CHRISTMAS
DAY...BEFORE SPREADING PRECIP INTO CENTRAL AREAS CHRISTMAS NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT MID LEVEL DRY AIRMASS SHIFTING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS TRENDED RIDGE TOP HUMIDITY RECOVERIES BELOW
35 PERCENT. THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
HELP TOP DOWN MOISTENING...AND TREND VALUES UPWARD THROUGH TODAY.
OTHERWISE...A WEAKENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS
ALOFT WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. STRONGER WINDS WILL APPROACH THE STATE TONIGHT
AND HELP INCREASE WINDS ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND IMMEDIATE EASTERN
SLOPES. EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT FOR THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU.

SUNDAY WILL TREND BREEZIER ALL AREAS AND WINDY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE TO
GOOD FROM FARMINGTON TO ABQ AND THE HIGH PLAINS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
TREND TEMPS THE WARMEST ON SUNDAY...WITH READINGS 5 TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE PLAINS. MIN RH VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE 35 PCT.

THE NOSE OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND CRANK UP THE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WILL SEE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...WITH
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...FOCUSING AROUND
TORRANCE AND GUADALUPE COUNTIES. COLD ADVECTION WITH THIS JET WILL
BEGIN TRENDING TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE NORTHERN TIER.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER IT DOES
APPEAR THINGS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE WETTER AND COLDER WITH A FARTHER
SOUTHWARD INCURSION OF THE POTENT UPPER JET. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS TO THE
RATON MESA AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. MUCH COLDER AIR IS SHOWN TO SLIDE
INTO THE STATE FOR TUESDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH CHRISTMAS IS
LOW...BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS
SEASON ENTERING THE STATE SOMEWHERE AROUND CHRISTMAS OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO STILL BE THE RULE THROUGH END OF FCST PERIOD...
06Z SUN. HOWEVER AREAS OF IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS AND VSBY...
INCLUDING FZFG...DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL...W
CENTRAL AND NW NM AS OF TIME OF THIS ISSUANCE AND WILL LIKELY
EXPAND TO SOME DEGREE...THOUGH REMAINING CONTAINED WITHIN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. SOME MT OBSCURATIONS AS WELL IN THESE AREAS.
MOST IMPACTED WILL BE KGUP AND KTCC VICINITIES AND PERHAPS KFMN
UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z SAT. HAVE BEEFED UP LOW CIGS
AND FOG MENTIONED IN THOSE TAFS...EMPHASIZING KGUP AND KTCC.
THEREAFTER VFR AREAWIDE.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  44  24  46  30 /   0   0   5   5
DULCE...........................  41  13  40  19 /   5   5   5  20
CUBA............................  41  17  41  23 /   5   5   5  10
GALLUP..........................  44  21  47  26 /   0   0   5   5
EL MORRO........................  40  20  42  26 /   0   0   5   5
GRANTS..........................  44  17  47  25 /   0   0   0   5
QUEMADO.........................  41  26  43  29 /   0   0   0   5
GLENWOOD........................  54  27  58  31 /   0   0   0   5
CHAMA...........................  40  13  39  19 /   5  10  10  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  39  26  39  30 /   0   0   5  10
PECOS...........................  40  25  39  30 /   0   0   0   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  37  13  36  20 /   0   0  10  20
RED RIVER.......................  34  15  34  20 /   0   0  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  39   6  38  20 /   0   0  10  20
TAOS............................  40  15  40  23 /   0   0   5  10
MORA............................  45  23  43  30 /   0   0   5   5
ESPANOLA........................  43  24  43  27 /   0   0   5   5
SANTA FE........................  39  27  38  31 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  43  22  44  27 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  44  31  46  34 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  47  27  49  32 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  46  26  49  31 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  46  27  49  31 /   0   0   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  47  21  50  27 /   0   0   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  46  28  48  32 /   0   0   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  50  25  56  31 /   0   0   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  42  27  44  32 /   0   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  44  28  46  33 /   0   0   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  44  22  45  26 /   0   0   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  42  24  44  30 /   0   0   0   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  43  27  46  32 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  48  27  50  32 /   0   0   0   5
RUIDOSO.........................  46  26  48  32 /   0   0   0   5
CAPULIN.........................  45  22  49  29 /   0   0   5  10
RATON...........................  50  19  53  27 /   0   0   5  10
SPRINGER........................  51  21  54  28 /   0   0   0   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  49  23  52  32 /   0   0   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  52  26  59  34 /   0   0   5   5
ROY.............................  50  24  55  31 /   0   0   5   0
CONCHAS.........................  51  28  59  36 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  52  30  56  37 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  53  25  60  35 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  53  27  59  35 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  55  27  60  36 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  53  29  60  37 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  55  26  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  53  29  58  39 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  52  29  55  39 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS65 KABQ 201034
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
334 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WHEN HIGHS
SHOULD PEAK NEAR NORMAL TO AS MUCH AS 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE MONDAY WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO DEEPEN AS IT CROSSES MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL FAVOR THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...NORTHEAST AREAS
AND POSSIBLY EAST CENTRAL AREAS FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. FURTHER...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO
WINDY IN MANY AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CANADIAN MODEL IS A LITTLE BEHIND...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A DEEPENING TROUGH BRINGING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...NE AREAS AND
POSSIBLY E CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH A SPEED MAXIMUM IN THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL CROSS
FROM OUR NW CORNER TO OUR SE CORNER. IT SHOULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY WITH 45-55 KT WINDS AT 700 MB. THE 700 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PEAK MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS IN THE 50-70 KT RANGE.
BUOYANT MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MECHANICAL MIXING WITH THE
COLD FRONT COULD ENABLE SOME POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
REACH THE SURFACE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ALSO...STRONG N WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NE AND E CENTRAL PLAINS.

WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ONLY TO STRENGTHEN
AGAIN ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS WEST WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN AND A SHARP
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY
CROSS THE CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEPTH AND
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. IT COULD PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS AS EARLY AS CHRISTMAS
DAY...BEFORE SPREADING PRECIP INTO CENTRAL AREAS CHRISTMAS NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT MID LEVEL DRY AIRMASS SHIFTING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS TRENDED RIDGE TOP HUMIDITY RECOVERIES BELOW
35 PERCENT. THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
HELP TOP DOWN MOISTENING...AND TREND VALUES UPWARD THROUGH TODAY.
OTHERWISE...A WEAKENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS
ALOFT WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. STRONGER WINDS WILL APPROACH THE STATE TONIGHT
AND HELP INCREASE WINDS ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND IMMEDIATE EASTERN
SLOPES. EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT FOR THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU.

SUNDAY WILL TREND BREEZIER ALL AREAS AND WINDY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE TO
GOOD FROM FARMINGTON TO ABQ AND THE HIGH PLAINS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
TREND TEMPS THE WARMEST ON SUNDAY...WITH READINGS 5 TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE PLAINS. MIN RH VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE 35 PCT.

THE NOSE OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND CRANK UP THE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WILL SEE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...WITH
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...FOCUSING AROUND
TORRANCE AND GUADALUPE COUNTIES. COLD ADVECTION WITH THIS JET WILL
BEGIN TRENDING TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE NORTHERN TIER.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER IT DOES
APPEAR THINGS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE WETTER AND COLDER WITH A FARTHER
SOUTHWARD INCURSION OF THE POTENT UPPER JET. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS TO THE
RATON MESA AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. MUCH COLDER AIR IS SHOWN TO SLIDE
INTO THE STATE FOR TUESDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH CHRISTMAS IS
LOW...BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS
SEASON ENTERING THE STATE SOMEWHERE AROUND CHRISTMAS OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO STILL BE THE RULE THROUGH END OF FCST PERIOD...
06Z SUN. HOWEVER AREAS OF IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS AND VSBY...
INCLUDING FZFG...DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL...W
CENTRAL AND NW NM AS OF TIME OF THIS ISSUANCE AND WILL LIKELY
EXPAND TO SOME DEGREE...THOUGH REMAINING CONTAINED WITHIN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. SOME MT OBSCURATIONS AS WELL IN THESE AREAS.
MOST IMPACTED WILL BE KGUP AND KTCC VICINITIES AND PERHAPS KFMN
UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z SAT. HAVE BEEFED UP LOW CIGS
AND FOG MENTIONED IN THOSE TAFS...EMPHASIZING KGUP AND KTCC.
THEREAFTER VFR AREAWIDE.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  44  24  46  30 /   0   0   5   5
DULCE...........................  41  13  40  19 /   5   5   5  20
CUBA............................  41  17  41  23 /   5   5   5  10
GALLUP..........................  44  21  47  26 /   0   0   5   5
EL MORRO........................  40  20  42  26 /   0   0   5   5
GRANTS..........................  44  17  47  25 /   0   0   0   5
QUEMADO.........................  41  26  43  29 /   0   0   0   5
GLENWOOD........................  54  27  58  31 /   0   0   0   5
CHAMA...........................  40  13  39  19 /   5  10  10  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  39  26  39  30 /   0   0   5  10
PECOS...........................  40  25  39  30 /   0   0   0   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  37  13  36  20 /   0   0  10  20
RED RIVER.......................  34  15  34  20 /   0   0  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  39   6  38  20 /   0   0  10  20
TAOS............................  40  15  40  23 /   0   0   5  10
MORA............................  45  23  43  30 /   0   0   5   5
ESPANOLA........................  43  24  43  27 /   0   0   5   5
SANTA FE........................  39  27  38  31 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  43  22  44  27 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  44  31  46  34 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  47  27  49  32 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  46  26  49  31 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  46  27  49  31 /   0   0   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  47  21  50  27 /   0   0   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  46  28  48  32 /   0   0   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  50  25  56  31 /   0   0   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  42  27  44  32 /   0   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  44  28  46  33 /   0   0   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  44  22  45  26 /   0   0   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  42  24  44  30 /   0   0   0   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  43  27  46  32 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  48  27  50  32 /   0   0   0   5
RUIDOSO.........................  46  26  48  32 /   0   0   0   5
CAPULIN.........................  45  22  49  29 /   0   0   5  10
RATON...........................  50  19  53  27 /   0   0   5  10
SPRINGER........................  51  21  54  28 /   0   0   0   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  49  23  52  32 /   0   0   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  52  26  59  34 /   0   0   5   5
ROY.............................  50  24  55  31 /   0   0   5   0
CONCHAS.........................  51  28  59  36 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  52  30  56  37 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  53  25  60  35 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  53  27  59  35 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  55  27  60  36 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  53  29  60  37 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  55  26  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  53  29  58  39 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  52  29  55  39 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS65 KABQ 201034
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
334 AM MST SAT DEC 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE TODAY THROUGH MONDAY WHEN HIGHS
SHOULD PEAK NEAR NORMAL TO AS MUCH AS 11 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL PLUNGE SOUTHWARD INTO THE STATE MONDAY WITH
FALLING TEMPERATURES DURING THE AFTERNOON NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO DEEPEN AS IT CROSSES MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...PRODUCING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW THAT WILL FAVOR THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS...NORTHEAST AREAS
AND POSSIBLY EAST CENTRAL AREAS FOR A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION. FURTHER...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO
WINDY IN MANY AREAS SUNDAY AND MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE CANADIAN MODEL IS A LITTLE BEHIND...BUT THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A DEEPENING TROUGH BRINGING SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...NE AREAS AND
POSSIBLY E CENTRAL AREAS MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. AROUND THE BASE
OF THE TROUGH A SPEED MAXIMUM IN THE POLAR JET STREAM WILL CROSS
FROM OUR NW CORNER TO OUR SE CORNER. IT SHOULD ARRIVE AS EARLY AS
SUNDAY WITH 45-55 KT WINDS AT 700 MB. THE 700 MB FLOW IS EXPECTED
TO PEAK MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SPEEDS IN THE 50-70 KT RANGE.
BUOYANT MIXING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND MECHANICAL MIXING WITH THE
COLD FRONT COULD ENABLE SOME POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO
REACH THE SURFACE MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ALSO...STRONG N WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEHIND A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE NE AND E CENTRAL PLAINS.

WINDS SHOULD WEAKEN TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...ONLY TO STRENGTHEN
AGAIN ON CHRISTMAS DAY AS WEST WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN AND A SHARP
LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS AHEAD OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT MAY
CROSS THE CENTRAL AND POSSIBLY THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MODELS ARE NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE DEPTH AND
TIMING OF THE SYSTEM. IT COULD PRODUCE A WINTRY MIX OF SHOWERS
ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN AREAS AS EARLY AS CHRISTMAS
DAY...BEFORE SPREADING PRECIP INTO CENTRAL AREAS CHRISTMAS NIGHT
AND FRIDAY. MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE AT THE
END OF THE WEEK.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A POTENT MID LEVEL DRY AIRMASS SHIFTING OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO
EARLY THIS MORNING HAS TRENDED RIDGE TOP HUMIDITY RECOVERIES BELOW
35 PERCENT. THICK HIGH CLOUD COVER APPROACHING FROM THE WEST WILL
HELP TOP DOWN MOISTENING...AND TREND VALUES UPWARD THROUGH TODAY.
OTHERWISE...A WEAKENING SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHTER WINDS
ALOFT WILL FAVOR WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES TODAY. TEMPS WILL BE
SIMILAR TO FRIDAY. STRONGER WINDS WILL APPROACH THE STATE TONIGHT
AND HELP INCREASE WINDS ALONG RIDGE TOPS AND IMMEDIATE EASTERN
SLOPES. EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES ARE EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT FOR THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST PLATEAU.

SUNDAY WILL TREND BREEZIER ALL AREAS AND WINDY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE TO
GOOD FROM FARMINGTON TO ABQ AND THE HIGH PLAINS. DOWNSLOPE FLOW WILL
TREND TEMPS THE WARMEST ON SUNDAY...WITH READINGS 5 TO 10F ABOVE
NORMAL FOR THE PLAINS. MIN RH VALUES WILL STILL REMAIN ABOVE 35 PCT.

THE NOSE OF A POWERFUL UPPER LEVEL JET WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES SUNDAY NIGHT AND CRANK UP THE WINDS THROUGH MONDAY.
JUST ABOUT EVERYWHERE WILL SEE BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS...WITH
VERY WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG THE HIGH PLAINS...FOCUSING AROUND
TORRANCE AND GUADALUPE COUNTIES. COLD ADVECTION WITH THIS JET WILL
BEGIN TRENDING TEMPS DOWN CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE NORTHERN TIER.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT WITH THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY. HOWEVER IT DOES
APPEAR THINGS ARE TRENDING A LITTLE WETTER AND COLDER WITH A FARTHER
SOUTHWARD INCURSION OF THE POTENT UPPER JET. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL WILL BE OVER THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS TO THE
RATON MESA AND NORTHEAST PLAINS. MUCH COLDER AIR IS SHOWN TO SLIDE
INTO THE STATE FOR TUESDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUING.

CONFIDENCE ON THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH CHRISTMAS IS
LOW...BUT THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS OF THE COLDEST AIR OF THIS
SEASON ENTERING THE STATE SOMEWHERE AROUND CHRISTMAS OR SHORTLY
THEREAFTER.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO STILL BE THE RULE THROUGH END OF FCST PERIOD...
06Z SUN. HOWEVER AREAS OF IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS AND VSBY...
INCLUDING FZFG...DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL...W
CENTRAL AND NW NM AS OF TIME OF THIS ISSUANCE AND WILL LIKELY
EXPAND TO SOME DEGREE...THOUGH REMAINING CONTAINED WITHIN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. SOME MT OBSCURATIONS AS WELL IN THESE AREAS.
MOST IMPACTED WILL BE KGUP AND KTCC VICINITIES AND PERHAPS KFMN
UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z SAT. HAVE BEEFED UP LOW CIGS
AND FOG MENTIONED IN THOSE TAFS...EMPHASIZING KGUP AND KTCC.
THEREAFTER VFR AREAWIDE.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  44  24  46  30 /   0   0   5   5
DULCE...........................  41  13  40  19 /   5   5   5  20
CUBA............................  41  17  41  23 /   5   5   5  10
GALLUP..........................  44  21  47  26 /   0   0   5   5
EL MORRO........................  40  20  42  26 /   0   0   5   5
GRANTS..........................  44  17  47  25 /   0   0   0   5
QUEMADO.........................  41  26  43  29 /   0   0   0   5
GLENWOOD........................  54  27  58  31 /   0   0   0   5
CHAMA...........................  40  13  39  19 /   5  10  10  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  39  26  39  30 /   0   0   5  10
PECOS...........................  40  25  39  30 /   0   0   0   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  37  13  36  20 /   0   0  10  20
RED RIVER.......................  34  15  34  20 /   0   0  20  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  39   6  38  20 /   0   0  10  20
TAOS............................  40  15  40  23 /   0   0   5  10
MORA............................  45  23  43  30 /   0   0   5   5
ESPANOLA........................  43  24  43  27 /   0   0   5   5
SANTA FE........................  39  27  38  31 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  43  22  44  27 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  44  31  46  34 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  47  27  49  32 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  46  26  49  31 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  46  27  49  31 /   0   0   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  47  21  50  27 /   0   0   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  46  28  48  32 /   0   0   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  50  25  56  31 /   0   0   0   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  42  27  44  32 /   0   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  44  28  46  33 /   0   0   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  44  22  45  26 /   0   0   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  42  24  44  30 /   0   0   0   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  43  27  46  32 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  48  27  50  32 /   0   0   0   5
RUIDOSO.........................  46  26  48  32 /   0   0   0   5
CAPULIN.........................  45  22  49  29 /   0   0   5  10
RATON...........................  50  19  53  27 /   0   0   5  10
SPRINGER........................  51  21  54  28 /   0   0   0   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  49  23  52  32 /   0   0   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  52  26  59  34 /   0   0   5   5
ROY.............................  50  24  55  31 /   0   0   5   0
CONCHAS.........................  51  28  59  36 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  52  30  56  37 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  53  25  60  35 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  53  27  59  35 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  55  27  60  36 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  53  29  60  37 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  55  26  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  53  29  58  39 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  52  29  55  39 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS65 KABQ 200606 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1106 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO STILL BE THE RULE THROUGH END OF FCST PERIOD...
06Z SUN. HOWEVER AREAS OF IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS AND VSBY...
INCLUDING FZFG...DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL...W
CENTRAL AND NW NM AS OF TIME OF THIS ISSUANCE AND WILL LIKELY
EXPAND TO SOME DEGREE...THOUGH REMAINING CONTAINED WITHIN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. SOME MT OBSCURATIONS AS WELL IN THESE AREAS.
MOST IMPACTED WILL BE KGUP AND KTCC VICINITIES AND PERHAPS KFMN
UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z SAT. HAVE BEEFED UP LOW CIGS
AND FOG MENTIONED IN THOSE TAFS...EMPHASIZING KGUP AND KTCC.
THEREAFTER VFR AREAWIDE.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...952 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014...
.UPDATE...
FOG ALONG THE TEXAS LINE CREEPING WESTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO...AS
LOW CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE GALLUP AREA IN THE WEST. WILL ADD FOG
OVERNIGHT MAINTAINED WITH NOWCASTS...AND UPDATE PUBLIC ZONE
FORECASTS SHORTLY.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF-LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO
NEW MEXICO WITH DRY AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAILING. A
FEW MODERATE BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST OF
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE ERODED AWAY. AS SATURDAY
APPROACHES...A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
NEW MEXICO...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS THE DRY AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. ON SUNDAY...STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE OBSERVED...LEADING TO BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. THE WINDS WILL TURN EVEN STRONGER INTO MONDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCING GUSTY CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...SOME PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BREAKING OUT OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A DRIER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF-LIVED OVER NM THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WERE SLOW TO ERODE AWAY THROUGH THE MORNING AND THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS
ARE STARTING TO ROLL IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD IMPEDE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR FOG/STRATUS TO
FILL BACK IN.

FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE INTO NM ON SATURDAY AS BEING SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH STILL NO
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. A FAIRLY WEAK
GRADIENT ALOFT WILL ALSO PRECLUDE ANY STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO WARM
BY A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT COOLING SLIGHTLY IN THE CORE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT. AS THE
FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...IT WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONGER SEGMENT OF THE POLAR JET
NOSES TOWARD NM.

THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE COMPLEMENTED BY A
DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH...ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO RAMP
UP THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD
BREAK OUT OVER NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN JUAN/TUSAS AND
AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO PEAKS. AND EVEN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT...THE PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL
STILL RISE A COUPLE OF DECAMETERS AND THUS TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE NORTHWESTERLIES
STRENGTHENING EVEN MORE ON MONDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 50 TO 65 KT
DEPICTED AT H7 BY THE GFS. THE SURFACE LOW WOULD BOTTOM OUT CLOSE
TO 1000 MB IN WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED THE PAST TWO SHIFTS FOR MONDAY`S
FORECAST AND MAY NEED MORE SPEED ADDED IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
HOLD. WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE A VERY DYNAMIC DAY NOT ONLY WITH THE WINDS...BUT ALSO
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME PRECIPITATION. POPS HAVE BEEN
PAINTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES MONDAY WITH THE
NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY SEEING FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BANDS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS FARTHER
WEST. THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND PERHAPS A WEAK UP SLOPE
COMPONENT...COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING OVER SOME EASTERN ZONES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHORT OF AVERAGE IN MANY ZONES ON
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY THE EAST WITH PROXIMITY TO COLDER
CONTINENTAL AIR. WINDS SHOULD RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN
COMPARED TO MONDAY`S SPEEDS...HOWEVER THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAVE THINGS QUITE BRISK. A DRIER SPELL SHOULD HOLD FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEING SLOW TO RELAX.

INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE GFS HAS TRENDED FLATTER...OR MORE
ZONAL...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT...BUT STILL KEEPS IT QUITE BRISK WHILE
USHERING ANY PERTURBATION OR PRECIPITATION INTO COLORADO AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. THE EUROPEAN MODEL ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
LEFT ITS AGREEABLE TONE AND HAS NOW REVERTED BACK TO A SOLUTION
THAT BRINGS A MORE POTENT STORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. CONSEQUENTLY THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS ABLE TO LET THE
COLD CANADIAN AIR PLUNGE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WHILE BREAKING OUT
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE STATE. HAVE LEFT MINIMAL POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WHILE THE EUROPEAN HAS NOT HELD MUCH
CONTINUITY OR CONSISTENCY AS WELL AS THE GFS...IT DOES NOT SEEM
TOO FAR-FETCHED TO HAVE THIS COLD CORE LOW BUCKLE THE FLOW AND
PLUNGE FARTHER SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
NARROW NW-SE CORRIDOR OF FAIR/LOCALLY GOOD VENTILATION FROM
CENTRAL INTO SC AREAS WHERE NWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH HAVE
BEEN COMMON IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY/S WAVE PASSAGE.

UNEVENTFUL WX PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY AS NWLY WINDS ALOFT STEADILY
WEAKEN AND MIXING HEIGHTS TREND DOWNWARD. WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION
WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
AND OVERALL DRYING WILL LIMIT EXTENT/EXPANSION OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
ACROSS THE NW/WC VALLEYS AS COMPARED TO THIS PAST NIGHT...BUT PATCHY
COVERAGE PERSISTING AS OF THIS WRITING.

IMPROVED MIXING GOING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH STRENGTHENING NW
WINDS ALOFT AND LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS
SUNDAY 5-15 DEGREES WARMER AS COMPARED TO TODAY. WINDY CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG/IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EXTENDING ACROSS THE WIND-PRONE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  WE KEPT
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE
NM/CO LINE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS TOP DOWN MOISTENING AND
OROGRAPHIC FORCING FOR LIFT INCREASE BUT PREDOMINATELY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A POWERHOUSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET
INTENSIFYING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THE INLAND NORTHWEST
TO THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO MANY AREAS OF NM
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY COLDER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS...NAM AND ESPECIALLY
ECMWF SHOWING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPANDING FARTHER SOUTH ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM AS A BACKDOOR SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL WATCH THIS PERIOD CLOSELY BUT
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ON TAP DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
PERIOD. NO VENTILATION CONCERNS MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD... THE 12Z ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED BACK TOWARD A
DEEPER/STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
AND JUST BEYOND WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A PREDOMINATELY DRY AND
FAST WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH LESS AMPLIFICATION. IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH OVERALL PATTERN...SO
WE/LL AWAIT FURTHER RUNS BEFORE TRENDING STRONGLY EITHER DIRECTION.

KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 200606 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1106 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO STILL BE THE RULE THROUGH END OF FCST PERIOD...
06Z SUN. HOWEVER AREAS OF IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS AND VSBY...
INCLUDING FZFG...DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL...W
CENTRAL AND NW NM AS OF TIME OF THIS ISSUANCE AND WILL LIKELY
EXPAND TO SOME DEGREE...THOUGH REMAINING CONTAINED WITHIN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. SOME MT OBSCURATIONS AS WELL IN THESE AREAS.
MOST IMPACTED WILL BE KGUP AND KTCC VICINITIES AND PERHAPS KFMN
UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z SAT. HAVE BEEFED UP LOW CIGS
AND FOG MENTIONED IN THOSE TAFS...EMPHASIZING KGUP AND KTCC.
THEREAFTER VFR AREAWIDE.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...952 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014...
.UPDATE...
FOG ALONG THE TEXAS LINE CREEPING WESTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO...AS
LOW CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE GALLUP AREA IN THE WEST. WILL ADD FOG
OVERNIGHT MAINTAINED WITH NOWCASTS...AND UPDATE PUBLIC ZONE
FORECASTS SHORTLY.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF-LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO
NEW MEXICO WITH DRY AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAILING. A
FEW MODERATE BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST OF
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE ERODED AWAY. AS SATURDAY
APPROACHES...A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
NEW MEXICO...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS THE DRY AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. ON SUNDAY...STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE OBSERVED...LEADING TO BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. THE WINDS WILL TURN EVEN STRONGER INTO MONDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCING GUSTY CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...SOME PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BREAKING OUT OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A DRIER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF-LIVED OVER NM THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WERE SLOW TO ERODE AWAY THROUGH THE MORNING AND THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS
ARE STARTING TO ROLL IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD IMPEDE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR FOG/STRATUS TO
FILL BACK IN.

FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE INTO NM ON SATURDAY AS BEING SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH STILL NO
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. A FAIRLY WEAK
GRADIENT ALOFT WILL ALSO PRECLUDE ANY STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO WARM
BY A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT COOLING SLIGHTLY IN THE CORE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT. AS THE
FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...IT WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONGER SEGMENT OF THE POLAR JET
NOSES TOWARD NM.

THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE COMPLEMENTED BY A
DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH...ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO RAMP
UP THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD
BREAK OUT OVER NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN JUAN/TUSAS AND
AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO PEAKS. AND EVEN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT...THE PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL
STILL RISE A COUPLE OF DECAMETERS AND THUS TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE NORTHWESTERLIES
STRENGTHENING EVEN MORE ON MONDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 50 TO 65 KT
DEPICTED AT H7 BY THE GFS. THE SURFACE LOW WOULD BOTTOM OUT CLOSE
TO 1000 MB IN WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED THE PAST TWO SHIFTS FOR MONDAY`S
FORECAST AND MAY NEED MORE SPEED ADDED IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
HOLD. WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE A VERY DYNAMIC DAY NOT ONLY WITH THE WINDS...BUT ALSO
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME PRECIPITATION. POPS HAVE BEEN
PAINTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES MONDAY WITH THE
NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY SEEING FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BANDS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS FARTHER
WEST. THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND PERHAPS A WEAK UP SLOPE
COMPONENT...COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING OVER SOME EASTERN ZONES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHORT OF AVERAGE IN MANY ZONES ON
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY THE EAST WITH PROXIMITY TO COLDER
CONTINENTAL AIR. WINDS SHOULD RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN
COMPARED TO MONDAY`S SPEEDS...HOWEVER THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAVE THINGS QUITE BRISK. A DRIER SPELL SHOULD HOLD FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEING SLOW TO RELAX.

INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE GFS HAS TRENDED FLATTER...OR MORE
ZONAL...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT...BUT STILL KEEPS IT QUITE BRISK WHILE
USHERING ANY PERTURBATION OR PRECIPITATION INTO COLORADO AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. THE EUROPEAN MODEL ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
LEFT ITS AGREEABLE TONE AND HAS NOW REVERTED BACK TO A SOLUTION
THAT BRINGS A MORE POTENT STORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. CONSEQUENTLY THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS ABLE TO LET THE
COLD CANADIAN AIR PLUNGE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WHILE BREAKING OUT
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE STATE. HAVE LEFT MINIMAL POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WHILE THE EUROPEAN HAS NOT HELD MUCH
CONTINUITY OR CONSISTENCY AS WELL AS THE GFS...IT DOES NOT SEEM
TOO FAR-FETCHED TO HAVE THIS COLD CORE LOW BUCKLE THE FLOW AND
PLUNGE FARTHER SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
NARROW NW-SE CORRIDOR OF FAIR/LOCALLY GOOD VENTILATION FROM
CENTRAL INTO SC AREAS WHERE NWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH HAVE
BEEN COMMON IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY/S WAVE PASSAGE.

UNEVENTFUL WX PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY AS NWLY WINDS ALOFT STEADILY
WEAKEN AND MIXING HEIGHTS TREND DOWNWARD. WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION
WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
AND OVERALL DRYING WILL LIMIT EXTENT/EXPANSION OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
ACROSS THE NW/WC VALLEYS AS COMPARED TO THIS PAST NIGHT...BUT PATCHY
COVERAGE PERSISTING AS OF THIS WRITING.

IMPROVED MIXING GOING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH STRENGTHENING NW
WINDS ALOFT AND LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS
SUNDAY 5-15 DEGREES WARMER AS COMPARED TO TODAY. WINDY CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG/IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EXTENDING ACROSS THE WIND-PRONE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  WE KEPT
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE
NM/CO LINE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS TOP DOWN MOISTENING AND
OROGRAPHIC FORCING FOR LIFT INCREASE BUT PREDOMINATELY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A POWERHOUSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET
INTENSIFYING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THE INLAND NORTHWEST
TO THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO MANY AREAS OF NM
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY COLDER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS...NAM AND ESPECIALLY
ECMWF SHOWING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPANDING FARTHER SOUTH ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM AS A BACKDOOR SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL WATCH THIS PERIOD CLOSELY BUT
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ON TAP DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
PERIOD. NO VENTILATION CONCERNS MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD... THE 12Z ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED BACK TOWARD A
DEEPER/STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
AND JUST BEYOND WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A PREDOMINATELY DRY AND
FAST WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH LESS AMPLIFICATION. IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH OVERALL PATTERN...SO
WE/LL AWAIT FURTHER RUNS BEFORE TRENDING STRONGLY EITHER DIRECTION.

KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 200606 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1106 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO STILL BE THE RULE THROUGH END OF FCST PERIOD...
06Z SUN. HOWEVER AREAS OF IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS AND VSBY...
INCLUDING FZFG...DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL...W
CENTRAL AND NW NM AS OF TIME OF THIS ISSUANCE AND WILL LIKELY
EXPAND TO SOME DEGREE...THOUGH REMAINING CONTAINED WITHIN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. SOME MT OBSCURATIONS AS WELL IN THESE AREAS.
MOST IMPACTED WILL BE KGUP AND KTCC VICINITIES AND PERHAPS KFMN
UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z SAT. HAVE BEEFED UP LOW CIGS
AND FOG MENTIONED IN THOSE TAFS...EMPHASIZING KGUP AND KTCC.
THEREAFTER VFR AREAWIDE.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...952 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014...
.UPDATE...
FOG ALONG THE TEXAS LINE CREEPING WESTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO...AS
LOW CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE GALLUP AREA IN THE WEST. WILL ADD FOG
OVERNIGHT MAINTAINED WITH NOWCASTS...AND UPDATE PUBLIC ZONE
FORECASTS SHORTLY.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF-LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO
NEW MEXICO WITH DRY AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAILING. A
FEW MODERATE BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST OF
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE ERODED AWAY. AS SATURDAY
APPROACHES...A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
NEW MEXICO...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS THE DRY AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. ON SUNDAY...STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE OBSERVED...LEADING TO BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. THE WINDS WILL TURN EVEN STRONGER INTO MONDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCING GUSTY CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...SOME PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BREAKING OUT OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A DRIER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF-LIVED OVER NM THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WERE SLOW TO ERODE AWAY THROUGH THE MORNING AND THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS
ARE STARTING TO ROLL IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD IMPEDE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR FOG/STRATUS TO
FILL BACK IN.

FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE INTO NM ON SATURDAY AS BEING SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH STILL NO
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. A FAIRLY WEAK
GRADIENT ALOFT WILL ALSO PRECLUDE ANY STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO WARM
BY A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT COOLING SLIGHTLY IN THE CORE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT. AS THE
FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...IT WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONGER SEGMENT OF THE POLAR JET
NOSES TOWARD NM.

THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE COMPLEMENTED BY A
DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH...ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO RAMP
UP THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD
BREAK OUT OVER NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN JUAN/TUSAS AND
AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO PEAKS. AND EVEN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT...THE PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL
STILL RISE A COUPLE OF DECAMETERS AND THUS TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE NORTHWESTERLIES
STRENGTHENING EVEN MORE ON MONDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 50 TO 65 KT
DEPICTED AT H7 BY THE GFS. THE SURFACE LOW WOULD BOTTOM OUT CLOSE
TO 1000 MB IN WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED THE PAST TWO SHIFTS FOR MONDAY`S
FORECAST AND MAY NEED MORE SPEED ADDED IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
HOLD. WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE A VERY DYNAMIC DAY NOT ONLY WITH THE WINDS...BUT ALSO
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME PRECIPITATION. POPS HAVE BEEN
PAINTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES MONDAY WITH THE
NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY SEEING FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BANDS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS FARTHER
WEST. THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND PERHAPS A WEAK UP SLOPE
COMPONENT...COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING OVER SOME EASTERN ZONES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHORT OF AVERAGE IN MANY ZONES ON
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY THE EAST WITH PROXIMITY TO COLDER
CONTINENTAL AIR. WINDS SHOULD RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN
COMPARED TO MONDAY`S SPEEDS...HOWEVER THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAVE THINGS QUITE BRISK. A DRIER SPELL SHOULD HOLD FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEING SLOW TO RELAX.

INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE GFS HAS TRENDED FLATTER...OR MORE
ZONAL...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT...BUT STILL KEEPS IT QUITE BRISK WHILE
USHERING ANY PERTURBATION OR PRECIPITATION INTO COLORADO AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. THE EUROPEAN MODEL ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
LEFT ITS AGREEABLE TONE AND HAS NOW REVERTED BACK TO A SOLUTION
THAT BRINGS A MORE POTENT STORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. CONSEQUENTLY THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS ABLE TO LET THE
COLD CANADIAN AIR PLUNGE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WHILE BREAKING OUT
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE STATE. HAVE LEFT MINIMAL POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WHILE THE EUROPEAN HAS NOT HELD MUCH
CONTINUITY OR CONSISTENCY AS WELL AS THE GFS...IT DOES NOT SEEM
TOO FAR-FETCHED TO HAVE THIS COLD CORE LOW BUCKLE THE FLOW AND
PLUNGE FARTHER SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
NARROW NW-SE CORRIDOR OF FAIR/LOCALLY GOOD VENTILATION FROM
CENTRAL INTO SC AREAS WHERE NWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH HAVE
BEEN COMMON IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY/S WAVE PASSAGE.

UNEVENTFUL WX PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY AS NWLY WINDS ALOFT STEADILY
WEAKEN AND MIXING HEIGHTS TREND DOWNWARD. WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION
WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
AND OVERALL DRYING WILL LIMIT EXTENT/EXPANSION OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
ACROSS THE NW/WC VALLEYS AS COMPARED TO THIS PAST NIGHT...BUT PATCHY
COVERAGE PERSISTING AS OF THIS WRITING.

IMPROVED MIXING GOING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH STRENGTHENING NW
WINDS ALOFT AND LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS
SUNDAY 5-15 DEGREES WARMER AS COMPARED TO TODAY. WINDY CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG/IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EXTENDING ACROSS THE WIND-PRONE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  WE KEPT
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE
NM/CO LINE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS TOP DOWN MOISTENING AND
OROGRAPHIC FORCING FOR LIFT INCREASE BUT PREDOMINATELY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A POWERHOUSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET
INTENSIFYING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THE INLAND NORTHWEST
TO THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO MANY AREAS OF NM
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY COLDER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS...NAM AND ESPECIALLY
ECMWF SHOWING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPANDING FARTHER SOUTH ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM AS A BACKDOOR SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL WATCH THIS PERIOD CLOSELY BUT
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ON TAP DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
PERIOD. NO VENTILATION CONCERNS MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD... THE 12Z ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED BACK TOWARD A
DEEPER/STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
AND JUST BEYOND WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A PREDOMINATELY DRY AND
FAST WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH LESS AMPLIFICATION. IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH OVERALL PATTERN...SO
WE/LL AWAIT FURTHER RUNS BEFORE TRENDING STRONGLY EITHER DIRECTION.

KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 200606 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1106 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS TO STILL BE THE RULE THROUGH END OF FCST PERIOD...
06Z SUN. HOWEVER AREAS OF IFR TO LOCALLY LIFR CIGS AND VSBY...
INCLUDING FZFG...DEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF E CENTRAL...W
CENTRAL AND NW NM AS OF TIME OF THIS ISSUANCE AND WILL LIKELY
EXPAND TO SOME DEGREE...THOUGH REMAINING CONTAINED WITHIN THE
AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. SOME MT OBSCURATIONS AS WELL IN THESE AREAS.
MOST IMPACTED WILL BE KGUP AND KTCC VICINITIES AND PERHAPS KFMN
UNTIL SOMETIME BETWEEN 16Z AND 19Z SAT. HAVE BEEFED UP LOW CIGS
AND FOG MENTIONED IN THOSE TAFS...EMPHASIZING KGUP AND KTCC.
THEREAFTER VFR AREAWIDE.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...952 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014...
.UPDATE...
FOG ALONG THE TEXAS LINE CREEPING WESTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO...AS
LOW CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE GALLUP AREA IN THE WEST. WILL ADD FOG
OVERNIGHT MAINTAINED WITH NOWCASTS...AND UPDATE PUBLIC ZONE
FORECASTS SHORTLY.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF-LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO
NEW MEXICO WITH DRY AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAILING. A
FEW MODERATE BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST OF
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE ERODED AWAY. AS SATURDAY
APPROACHES...A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
NEW MEXICO...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS THE DRY AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. ON SUNDAY...STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE OBSERVED...LEADING TO BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. THE WINDS WILL TURN EVEN STRONGER INTO MONDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCING GUSTY CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...SOME PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BREAKING OUT OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A DRIER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF-LIVED OVER NM THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WERE SLOW TO ERODE AWAY THROUGH THE MORNING AND THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS
ARE STARTING TO ROLL IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD IMPEDE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR FOG/STRATUS TO
FILL BACK IN.

FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE INTO NM ON SATURDAY AS BEING SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH STILL NO
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. A FAIRLY WEAK
GRADIENT ALOFT WILL ALSO PRECLUDE ANY STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO WARM
BY A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT COOLING SLIGHTLY IN THE CORE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT. AS THE
FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...IT WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONGER SEGMENT OF THE POLAR JET
NOSES TOWARD NM.

THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE COMPLEMENTED BY A
DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH...ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO RAMP
UP THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD
BREAK OUT OVER NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN JUAN/TUSAS AND
AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO PEAKS. AND EVEN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT...THE PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL
STILL RISE A COUPLE OF DECAMETERS AND THUS TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE NORTHWESTERLIES
STRENGTHENING EVEN MORE ON MONDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 50 TO 65 KT
DEPICTED AT H7 BY THE GFS. THE SURFACE LOW WOULD BOTTOM OUT CLOSE
TO 1000 MB IN WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED THE PAST TWO SHIFTS FOR MONDAY`S
FORECAST AND MAY NEED MORE SPEED ADDED IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
HOLD. WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE A VERY DYNAMIC DAY NOT ONLY WITH THE WINDS...BUT ALSO
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME PRECIPITATION. POPS HAVE BEEN
PAINTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES MONDAY WITH THE
NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY SEEING FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BANDS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS FARTHER
WEST. THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND PERHAPS A WEAK UP SLOPE
COMPONENT...COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING OVER SOME EASTERN ZONES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHORT OF AVERAGE IN MANY ZONES ON
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY THE EAST WITH PROXIMITY TO COLDER
CONTINENTAL AIR. WINDS SHOULD RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN
COMPARED TO MONDAY`S SPEEDS...HOWEVER THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAVE THINGS QUITE BRISK. A DRIER SPELL SHOULD HOLD FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEING SLOW TO RELAX.

INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE GFS HAS TRENDED FLATTER...OR MORE
ZONAL...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT...BUT STILL KEEPS IT QUITE BRISK WHILE
USHERING ANY PERTURBATION OR PRECIPITATION INTO COLORADO AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. THE EUROPEAN MODEL ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
LEFT ITS AGREEABLE TONE AND HAS NOW REVERTED BACK TO A SOLUTION
THAT BRINGS A MORE POTENT STORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. CONSEQUENTLY THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS ABLE TO LET THE
COLD CANADIAN AIR PLUNGE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WHILE BREAKING OUT
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE STATE. HAVE LEFT MINIMAL POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WHILE THE EUROPEAN HAS NOT HELD MUCH
CONTINUITY OR CONSISTENCY AS WELL AS THE GFS...IT DOES NOT SEEM
TOO FAR-FETCHED TO HAVE THIS COLD CORE LOW BUCKLE THE FLOW AND
PLUNGE FARTHER SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
NARROW NW-SE CORRIDOR OF FAIR/LOCALLY GOOD VENTILATION FROM
CENTRAL INTO SC AREAS WHERE NWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH HAVE
BEEN COMMON IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY/S WAVE PASSAGE.

UNEVENTFUL WX PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY AS NWLY WINDS ALOFT STEADILY
WEAKEN AND MIXING HEIGHTS TREND DOWNWARD. WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION
WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
AND OVERALL DRYING WILL LIMIT EXTENT/EXPANSION OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
ACROSS THE NW/WC VALLEYS AS COMPARED TO THIS PAST NIGHT...BUT PATCHY
COVERAGE PERSISTING AS OF THIS WRITING.

IMPROVED MIXING GOING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH STRENGTHENING NW
WINDS ALOFT AND LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS
SUNDAY 5-15 DEGREES WARMER AS COMPARED TO TODAY. WINDY CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG/IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EXTENDING ACROSS THE WIND-PRONE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  WE KEPT
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE
NM/CO LINE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS TOP DOWN MOISTENING AND
OROGRAPHIC FORCING FOR LIFT INCREASE BUT PREDOMINATELY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A POWERHOUSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET
INTENSIFYING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THE INLAND NORTHWEST
TO THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO MANY AREAS OF NM
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY COLDER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS...NAM AND ESPECIALLY
ECMWF SHOWING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPANDING FARTHER SOUTH ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM AS A BACKDOOR SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL WATCH THIS PERIOD CLOSELY BUT
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ON TAP DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
PERIOD. NO VENTILATION CONCERNS MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD... THE 12Z ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED BACK TOWARD A
DEEPER/STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
AND JUST BEYOND WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A PREDOMINATELY DRY AND
FAST WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH LESS AMPLIFICATION. IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH OVERALL PATTERN...SO
WE/LL AWAIT FURTHER RUNS BEFORE TRENDING STRONGLY EITHER DIRECTION.

KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 200452 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
952 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOG ALONG THE TEXAS LINE CREEPING WESTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO...AS
LOW CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE GALLUP AREA IN THE WEST. WILL ADD FOG
OVERNIGHT MAINTAINED WITH NOWCASTS...AND UPDATE PUBLIC ZONE
FORECASTS SHORTLY.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...448 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AREA WIDE THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z OR 09Z.
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR RETURN OF PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS IN
MVFR TO MORE LOCALLY IFR CATEGORY AT KFMN AND KGUP...LESS
SPECIFICALLY THE NW QUARTER TO PERHAPS THIRD OF NM...BETWEEN 09Z
AND 19Z SAT. COVERAGE AND LIKELIHOOD NOT QUITE AS GREAT AS EARLY
THIS MORN SO FOR NOW STAYED WITH VCFG PLACEHOLDER.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF-LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO
NEW MEXICO WITH DRY AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAILING. A
FEW MODERATE BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST OF
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE ERODED AWAY. AS SATURDAY
APPROACHES...A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
NEW MEXICO...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS THE DRY AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. ON SUNDAY...STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE OBSERVED...LEADING TO BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. THE WINDS WILL TURN EVEN STRONGER INTO MONDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCING GUSTY CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...SOME PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BREAKING OUT OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A DRIER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF-LIVED OVER NM THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WERE SLOW TO ERODE AWAY THROUGH THE MORNING AND THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS
ARE STARTING TO ROLL IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD IMPEDE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR FOG/STRATUS TO
FILL BACK IN.

FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE INTO NM ON SATURDAY AS BEING SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH STILL NO
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. A FAIRLY WEAK
GRADIENT ALOFT WILL ALSO PRECLUDE ANY STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO WARM
BY A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT COOLING SLIGHTLY IN THE CORE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT. AS THE
FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...IT WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONGER SEGMENT OF THE POLAR JET
NOSES TOWARD NM.

THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE COMPLEMENTED BY A
DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH...ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO RAMP
UP THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD
BREAK OUT OVER NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN JUAN/TUSAS AND
AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO PEAKS. AND EVEN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT...THE PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL
STILL RISE A COUPLE OF DECAMETERS AND THUS TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE NORTHWESTERLIES
STRENGTHENING EVEN MORE ON MONDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 50 TO 65 KT
DEPICTED AT H7 BY THE GFS. THE SURFACE LOW WOULD BOTTOM OUT CLOSE
TO 1000 MB IN WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED THE PAST TWO SHIFTS FOR MONDAY`S
FORECAST AND MAY NEED MORE SPEED ADDED IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
HOLD. WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE A VERY DYNAMIC DAY NOT ONLY WITH THE WINDS...BUT ALSO
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME PRECIPITATION. POPS HAVE BEEN
PAINTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES MONDAY WITH THE
NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY SEEING FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BANDS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS FARTHER
WEST. THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND PERHAPS A WEAK UP SLOPE
COMPONENT...COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING OVER SOME EASTERN ZONES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHORT OF AVERAGE IN MANY ZONES ON
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY THE EAST WITH PROXIMITY TO COLDER
CONTINENTAL AIR. WINDS SHOULD RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN
COMPARED TO MONDAY`S SPEEDS...HOWEVER THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAVE THINGS QUITE BRISK. A DRIER SPELL SHOULD HOLD FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEING SLOW TO RELAX.

INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE GFS HAS TRENDED FLATTER...OR MORE
ZONAL...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT...BUT STILL KEEPS IT QUITE BRISK WHILE
USHERING ANY PERTURBATION OR PRECIPITATION INTO COLORADO AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. THE EUROPEAN MODEL ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
LEFT ITS AGREEABLE TONE AND HAS NOW REVERTED BACK TO A SOLUTION
THAT BRINGS A MORE POTENT STORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. CONSEQUENTLY THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS ABLE TO LET THE
COLD CANADIAN AIR PLUNGE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WHILE BREAKING OUT
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE STATE. HAVE LEFT MINIMAL POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WHILE THE EUROPEAN HAS NOT HELD MUCH
CONTINUITY OR CONSISTENCY AS WELL AS THE GFS...IT DOES NOT SEEM
TOO FAR-FETCHED TO HAVE THIS COLD CORE LOW BUCKLE THE FLOW AND
PLUNGE FARTHER SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
NARROW NW-SE CORRIDOR OF FAIR/LOCALLY GOOD VENTILATION FROM
CENTRAL INTO SC AREAS WHERE NWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH HAVE
BEEN COMMON IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY/S WAVE PASSAGE.

UNEVENTFUL WX PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY AS NWLY WINDS ALOFT STEADILY
WEAKEN AND MIXING HEIGHTS TREND DOWNWARD. WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION
WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
AND OVERALL DRYING WILL LIMIT EXTENT/EXPANSION OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
ACROSS THE NW/WC VALLEYS AS COMPARED TO THIS PAST NIGHT...BUT PATCHY
COVERAGE PERSISTING AS OF THIS WRITING.

IMPROVED MIXING GOING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH STRENGTHENING NW
WINDS ALOFT AND LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS
SUNDAY 5-15 DEGREES WARMER AS COMPARED TO TODAY. WINDY CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG/IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EXTENDING ACROSS THE WIND-PRONE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  WE KEPT
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE
NM/CO LINE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS TOP DOWN MOISTENING AND
OROGRAPHIC FORCING FOR LIFT INCREASE BUT PREDOMINATELY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A POWERHOUSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET
INTENSIFYING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THE INLAND NORTHWEST
TO THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO MANY AREAS OF NM
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY COLDER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS...NAM AND ESPECIALLY
ECMWF SHOWING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPANDING FARTHER SOUTH ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM AS A BACKDOOR SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL WATCH THIS PERIOD CLOSELY BUT
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ON TAP DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
PERIOD. NO VENTILATION CONCERNS MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD... THE 12Z ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED BACK TOWARD A
DEEPER/STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
AND JUST BEYOND WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A PREDOMINATELY DRY AND
FAST WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH LESS AMPLIFICATION. IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH OVERALL PATTERN...SO
WE/LL AWAIT FURTHER RUNS BEFORE TRENDING STRONGLY EITHER DIRECTION.

KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHY







000
FXUS65 KABQ 200452 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
952 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.UPDATE...
FOG ALONG THE TEXAS LINE CREEPING WESTWARD INTO NEW MEXICO...AS
LOW CLOUDS SPREAD OVER THE GALLUP AREA IN THE WEST. WILL ADD FOG
OVERNIGHT MAINTAINED WITH NOWCASTS...AND UPDATE PUBLIC ZONE
FORECASTS SHORTLY.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...448 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AREA WIDE THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z OR 09Z.
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR RETURN OF PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS IN
MVFR TO MORE LOCALLY IFR CATEGORY AT KFMN AND KGUP...LESS
SPECIFICALLY THE NW QUARTER TO PERHAPS THIRD OF NM...BETWEEN 09Z
AND 19Z SAT. COVERAGE AND LIKELIHOOD NOT QUITE AS GREAT AS EARLY
THIS MORN SO FOR NOW STAYED WITH VCFG PLACEHOLDER.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF-LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO
NEW MEXICO WITH DRY AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAILING. A
FEW MODERATE BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST OF
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE ERODED AWAY. AS SATURDAY
APPROACHES...A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
NEW MEXICO...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS THE DRY AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. ON SUNDAY...STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE OBSERVED...LEADING TO BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. THE WINDS WILL TURN EVEN STRONGER INTO MONDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCING GUSTY CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...SOME PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BREAKING OUT OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A DRIER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF-LIVED OVER NM THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WERE SLOW TO ERODE AWAY THROUGH THE MORNING AND THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS
ARE STARTING TO ROLL IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD IMPEDE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR FOG/STRATUS TO
FILL BACK IN.

FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE INTO NM ON SATURDAY AS BEING SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH STILL NO
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. A FAIRLY WEAK
GRADIENT ALOFT WILL ALSO PRECLUDE ANY STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO WARM
BY A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT COOLING SLIGHTLY IN THE CORE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT. AS THE
FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...IT WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONGER SEGMENT OF THE POLAR JET
NOSES TOWARD NM.

THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE COMPLEMENTED BY A
DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH...ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO RAMP
UP THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD
BREAK OUT OVER NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN JUAN/TUSAS AND
AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO PEAKS. AND EVEN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT...THE PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL
STILL RISE A COUPLE OF DECAMETERS AND THUS TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE NORTHWESTERLIES
STRENGTHENING EVEN MORE ON MONDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 50 TO 65 KT
DEPICTED AT H7 BY THE GFS. THE SURFACE LOW WOULD BOTTOM OUT CLOSE
TO 1000 MB IN WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED THE PAST TWO SHIFTS FOR MONDAY`S
FORECAST AND MAY NEED MORE SPEED ADDED IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
HOLD. WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE A VERY DYNAMIC DAY NOT ONLY WITH THE WINDS...BUT ALSO
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME PRECIPITATION. POPS HAVE BEEN
PAINTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES MONDAY WITH THE
NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY SEEING FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BANDS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS FARTHER
WEST. THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND PERHAPS A WEAK UP SLOPE
COMPONENT...COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING OVER SOME EASTERN ZONES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHORT OF AVERAGE IN MANY ZONES ON
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY THE EAST WITH PROXIMITY TO COLDER
CONTINENTAL AIR. WINDS SHOULD RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN
COMPARED TO MONDAY`S SPEEDS...HOWEVER THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAVE THINGS QUITE BRISK. A DRIER SPELL SHOULD HOLD FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEING SLOW TO RELAX.

INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE GFS HAS TRENDED FLATTER...OR MORE
ZONAL...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT...BUT STILL KEEPS IT QUITE BRISK WHILE
USHERING ANY PERTURBATION OR PRECIPITATION INTO COLORADO AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. THE EUROPEAN MODEL ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
LEFT ITS AGREEABLE TONE AND HAS NOW REVERTED BACK TO A SOLUTION
THAT BRINGS A MORE POTENT STORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. CONSEQUENTLY THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS ABLE TO LET THE
COLD CANADIAN AIR PLUNGE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WHILE BREAKING OUT
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE STATE. HAVE LEFT MINIMAL POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WHILE THE EUROPEAN HAS NOT HELD MUCH
CONTINUITY OR CONSISTENCY AS WELL AS THE GFS...IT DOES NOT SEEM
TOO FAR-FETCHED TO HAVE THIS COLD CORE LOW BUCKLE THE FLOW AND
PLUNGE FARTHER SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
NARROW NW-SE CORRIDOR OF FAIR/LOCALLY GOOD VENTILATION FROM
CENTRAL INTO SC AREAS WHERE NWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH HAVE
BEEN COMMON IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY/S WAVE PASSAGE.

UNEVENTFUL WX PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY AS NWLY WINDS ALOFT STEADILY
WEAKEN AND MIXING HEIGHTS TREND DOWNWARD. WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION
WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
AND OVERALL DRYING WILL LIMIT EXTENT/EXPANSION OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
ACROSS THE NW/WC VALLEYS AS COMPARED TO THIS PAST NIGHT...BUT PATCHY
COVERAGE PERSISTING AS OF THIS WRITING.

IMPROVED MIXING GOING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH STRENGTHENING NW
WINDS ALOFT AND LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS
SUNDAY 5-15 DEGREES WARMER AS COMPARED TO TODAY. WINDY CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG/IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EXTENDING ACROSS THE WIND-PRONE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  WE KEPT
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE
NM/CO LINE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS TOP DOWN MOISTENING AND
OROGRAPHIC FORCING FOR LIFT INCREASE BUT PREDOMINATELY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A POWERHOUSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET
INTENSIFYING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THE INLAND NORTHWEST
TO THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO MANY AREAS OF NM
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY COLDER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS...NAM AND ESPECIALLY
ECMWF SHOWING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPANDING FARTHER SOUTH ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM AS A BACKDOOR SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL WATCH THIS PERIOD CLOSELY BUT
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ON TAP DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
PERIOD. NO VENTILATION CONCERNS MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD... THE 12Z ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED BACK TOWARD A
DEEPER/STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
AND JUST BEYOND WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A PREDOMINATELY DRY AND
FAST WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH LESS AMPLIFICATION. IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH OVERALL PATTERN...SO
WE/LL AWAIT FURTHER RUNS BEFORE TRENDING STRONGLY EITHER DIRECTION.

KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHY








000
FXUS65 KABQ 192348
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
448 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE AREAWIDE THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z OR 09Z.
POTENTIAL STILL EXISTS FOR RETURN OF PATCHY FOG/LOW STRATUS IN
MVFR TO MORE LOCALLY IFR CATEGORY AT KFMN AND KGUP...LESS
SPECIFICALLY THE NW QUARTER TO PERHAPS THIRD OF NM...BETWEEN 09Z
AND 19Z SAT. COVERAGE AND LIKELIHOOD NOT QUITE AS GREAT AS EARLY
THIS MORN SO FOR NOW STAYED WITH VCFG PLACEHOLDER.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF-LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO
NEW MEXICO WITH DRY AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAILING. A
FEW MODERATE BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST OF
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE ERODED AWAY. AS SATURDAY
APPROACHES...A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
NEW MEXICO...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS THE DRY AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. ON SUNDAY...STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE OBSERVED...LEADING TO BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. THE WINDS WILL TURN EVEN STRONGER INTO MONDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCING GUSTY CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...SOME PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BREAKING OUT OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A DRIER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF-LIVED OVER NM THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WERE SLOW TO ERODE AWAY THROUGH THE MORNING AND THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS
ARE STARTING TO ROLL IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD IMPEDE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR FOG/STRATUS TO
FILL BACK IN.

FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE INTO NM ON SATURDAY AS BEING SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH STILL NO
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. A FAIRLY WEAK
GRADIENT ALOFT WILL ALSO PRECLUDE ANY STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO WARM
BY A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT COOLING SLIGHTLY IN THE CORE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT. AS THE
FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...IT WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONGER SEGMENT OF THE POLAR JET
NOSES TOWARD NM.

THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE COMPLEMENTED BY A
DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH...ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO RAMP
UP THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD
BREAK OUT OVER NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN JUAN/TUSAS AND
AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO PEAKS. AND EVEN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT...THE PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL
STILL RISE A COUPLE OF DECAMETERS AND THUS TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE NORTHWESTERLIES
STRENGTHENING EVEN MORE ON MONDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 50 TO 65 KT
DEPICTED AT H7 BY THE GFS. THE SURFACE LOW WOULD BOTTOM OUT CLOSE
TO 1000 MB IN WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED THE PAST TWO SHIFTS FOR MONDAY`S
FORECAST AND MAY NEED MORE SPEED ADDED IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
HOLD. WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE A VERY DYNAMIC DAY NOT ONLY WITH THE WINDS...BUT ALSO
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME PRECIPITATION. POPS HAVE BEEN
PAINTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES MONDAY WITH THE
NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY SEEING FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BANDS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS FARTHER
WEST. THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND PERHAPS A WEAK UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING OVER SOME EASTERN ZONES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHORT OF AVERAGE IN MANY ZONES ON
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY THE EAST WITH PROXIMITY TO COLDER
CONTINENTAL AIR. WINDS SHOULD RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN
COMPARED TO MONDAY`S SPEEDS...HOWEVER THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAVE THINGS QUITE BRISK. A DRIER SPELL SHOULD HOLD FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEING SLOW TO RELAX.

INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE GFS HAS TRENDED FLATTER...OR MORE
ZONAL...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT...BUT STILL KEEPS IT QUITE BRISK WHILE
USHERING ANY PERTURBATION OR PRECIPITATION INTO COLORADO AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. THE EUROPEAN MODEL ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
LEFT ITS AGREEABLE TONE AND HAS NOW REVERTED BACK TO A SOLUTION
THAT BRINGS A MORE POTENT STORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. CONSEQUENTLY THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS ABLE TO LET THE
COLD CANADIAN AIR PLUNGE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WHILE BREAKING OUT
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE STATE. HAVE LEFT MINIMAL POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WHILE THE EUROPEAN HAS NOT HELD MUCH
CONTINUITY OR CONSISTENCY AS WELL AS THE GFS...IT DOES NOT SEEM
TOO FAR-FETCHED TO HAVE THIS COLD CORE LOW BUCKLE THE FLOW AND
PLUNGE FARTHER SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
NARROW NW-SE CORRIDOR OF FAIR/LOCALLY GOOD VENTILATION FROM
CENTRAL INTO SC AREAS WHERE NWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH HAVE
BEEN COMMON IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY/S WAVE PASSAGE.

UNEVENTFUL WX PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY AS NWLY WINDS ALOFT STEADILY
WEAKEN AND MIXING HEIGHTS TREND DOWNWARD. WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION
WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
AND OVERALL DRYING WILL LIMIT EXTENT/EXPANSION OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
ACROSS THE NW/WC VALLEYS AS COMPARED TO THIS PAST NIGHT...BUT PATCHY
COVERAGE PERSISTING AS OF THIS WRITING.

IMPROVED MIXING GOING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH STRENGTHENING NW
WINDS ALOFT AND LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS
SUNDAY 5-15 DEGREES WARMER AS COMPARED TO TODAY. WINDY CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG/IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EXTENDING ACROSS THE WIND-PRONE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  WE KEPT
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE
NM/CO LINE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS TOP DOWN MOISTENING AND
OROGRAPHIC FORCING FOR LIFT INCREASE BUT PREDOMINATELY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A POWERHOUSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET
INTENSIFYING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THE INLAND NORTHWEST
TO THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO MANY AREAS OF NM
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY COLDER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS...NAM AND ESPECIALLY
ECMWF SHOWING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPANDING FARTHER SOUTH ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM AS A BACKDOOR SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL WATCH THIS PERIOD CLOSELY BUT
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ON TAP DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
PERIOD. NO VENTILATION CONCERNS MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD... THE 12Z ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED BACK TOWARD A
DEEPER/STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
AND JUST BEYOND WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A PREDOMINATELY DRY AND
FAST WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH LESS AMPLIFICATION. IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH OVERALL PATTERN...SO
WE/LL AWAIT FURTHER RUNS BEFORE TRENDING STRONGLY EITHER DIRECTION.

KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 192219
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
319 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF-LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO
NEW MEXICO WITH DRY AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAILING. A
FEW MODERATE BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST OF
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE ERODED AWAY. AS SATURDAY
APPROACHES...A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
NEW MEXICO...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS THE DRY AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. ON SUNDAY...STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE OBSERVED...LEADING TO BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. THE WINDS WILL TURN EVEN STRONGER INTO MONDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCING GUSTY CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...SOME PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BREAKING OUT OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A DRIER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF-LIVED OVER NM THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WERE SLOW TO ERODE AWAY THROUGH THE MORNING AND THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS
ARE STARTING TO ROLL IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD IMPEDE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR FOG/STRATUS TO
FILL BACK IN.

FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE INTO NM ON SATURDAY AS BEING SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH STILL NO
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. A FAIRLY WEAK
GRADIENT ALOFT WILL ALSO PRECLUDE ANY STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO WARM
BY A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT COOLING SLIGHTLY IN THE CORE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT. AS THE
FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...IT WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONGER SEGMENT OF THE POLAR JET
NOSES TOWARD NM.

THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE COMPLEMENTED BY A
DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH...ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO RAMP
UP THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD
BREAK OUT OVER NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN JUAN/TUSAS AND
AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO PEAKS. AND EVEN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT...THE PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL
STILL RISE A COUPLE OF DECAMETERS AND THUS TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE NORTHWESTERLIES
STRENGTHENING EVEN MORE ON MONDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 50 TO 65 KT
DEPICTED AT H7 BY THE GFS. THE SURFACE LOW WOULD BOTTOM OUT CLOSE
TO 1000 MB IN WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED THE PAST TWO SHIFTS FOR MONDAY`S
FORECAST AND MAY NEED MORE SPEED ADDED IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
HOLD. WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE A VERY DYNAMIC DAY NOT ONLY WITH THE WINDS...BUT ALSO
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME PRECIPITATION. POPS HAVE BEEN
PAINTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES MONDAY WITH THE
NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY SEEING FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BANDS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS FARTHER
WEST. THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND PERHAPS A WEAK UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING OVER SOME EASTERN ZONES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHORT OF AVERAGE IN MANY ZONES ON
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY THE EAST WITH PROXIMITY TO COLDER
CONTINENTAL AIR. WINDS SHOULD RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN
COMPARED TO MONDAY`S SPEEDS...HOWEVER THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAVE THINGS QUITE BRISK. A DRIER SPELL SHOULD HOLD FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEING SLOW TO RELAX.

INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE GFS HAS TRENDED FLATTER...OR MORE
ZONAL...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT...BUT STILL KEEPS IT QUITE BRISK WHILE
USHERING ANY PERTURBATION OR PRECIPITATION INTO COLORADO AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. THE EUROPEAN MODEL ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
LEFT ITS AGREEABLE TONE AND HAS NOW REVERTED BACK TO A SOLUTION
THAT BRINGS A MORE POTENT STORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. CONSEQUENTLY THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS ABLE TO LET THE
COLD CANADIAN AIR PLUNGE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WHILE BREAKING OUT
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE STATE. HAVE LEFT MINIMAL POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WHILE THE EUROPEAN HAS NOT HELD MUCH
CONTINUITY OR CONSISTENCY AS WELL AS THE GFS...IT DOES NOT SEEM
TOO FAR-FETCHED TO HAVE THIS COLD CORE LOW BUCKLE THE FLOW AND
PLUNGE FARTHER SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
NARROW NW-SE CORRIDOR OF FAIR/LOCALLY GOOD VENTILATION FROM
CENTRAL INTO SC AREAS WHERE NWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH HAVE
BEEN COMMON IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY/S WAVE PASSAGE.

UNEVENTFUL WX PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY AS NWLY WINDS ALOFT STEADILY
WEAKEN AND MIXING HEIGHTS TREND DOWNWARD. WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION
WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
AND OVERALL DRYING WILL LIMIT EXTENT/EXPANSION OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
ACROSS THE NW/WC VALLEYS AS COMPARED TO THIS PAST NIGHT...BUT PATCHY
COVERAGE PERSISTING AS OF THIS WRITING.

IMPROVED MIXING GOING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH STRENGTHENING NW
WINDS ALOFT AND LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS
SUNDAY 5-15 DEGREES WARMER AS COMPARED TO TODAY. WINDY CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG/IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EXTENDING ACROSS THE WIND-PRONE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  WE KEPT
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE
NM/CO LINE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS TOP DOWN MOISTENING AND
OROGRAPHIC FORCING FOR LIFT INCREASE BUT PREDOMINATELY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A POWERHOUSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET
INTENSIFYING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THE INLAND NORTHWEST
TO THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO MANY AREAS OF NM
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY COLDER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS...NAM AND ESPECIALLY
ECMWF SHOWING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPANDING FARTHER SOUTH ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM AS A BACKDOOR SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL WATCH THIS PERIOD CLOSELY BUT
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ON TAP DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
PERIOD. NO VENTILATION CONCERNS MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD... THE 12Z ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED BACK TOWARD A
DEEPER/STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
AND JUST BEYOND WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A PREDOMINATELY DRY AND
FAST WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH LESS AMPLIFICATION. IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH OVERALL PATTERN...SO
WE/LL AWAIT FURTHER RUNS BEFORE TRENDING STRONGLY EITHER DIRECTION.

KJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT KFMN AND MUCH OF THE NW PLATEAU UNTIL
AROUND 19Z BEFORE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING VFR HIGH CLOUDINESS.
ELSEWHERE...SMALL AREA OF MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS NEAR KTCC AND CVN
TO QUICKLY ERODE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
AREAWIDE WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY. POSSIBILITY OF
FOG/LOW STRATUS RETURNING KFMN AND KGUP LATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT MORNING NOT QUITE AS GREAT AS THIS PAST NIGHT BUT WILL INCLUDE
VCFG AS PLACEHOLDER FOR NOW.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  21  45  23  47 /   0   0   0   5
DULCE...........................   8  42  11  41 /   0   5   5  10
CUBA............................   7  42  13  42 /   0   5   5   5
GALLUP..........................  15  46  19  48 /   0   0   0   5
EL MORRO........................  14  40  18  43 /   0   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  12  45  17  47 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  19  40  23  44 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  27  55  28  58 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................   6  42  10  39 /   0   5  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  21  39  24  42 /   0   0   0   5
PECOS...........................  20  42  23  41 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................   5  39  11  38 /   0   0   0  10
RED RIVER.......................   4  35  10  35 /   5   0   0  20
ANGEL FIRE......................   1  41   7  38 /   5   0   0  10
TAOS............................  10  41  14  40 /   0   0   0   5
MORA............................  17  46  20  44 /   0   0   0   5
ESPANOLA........................  13  43  16  45 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE........................  19  40  26  40 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  18  43  22  45 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  22  44  27  47 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  25  46  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  19  47  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  21  47  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  21  47  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  25  46  28  49 /   0   0   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  25  51  26  56 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  18  41  22  46 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  24  43  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  19  45  19  47 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  20  43  23  45 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  23  44  26  48 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  23  50  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  23  47  24  50 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  14  47  16  48 /   5   0   0   5
RATON...........................  15  50  17  53 /   0   0   0   5
SPRINGER........................  19  51  19  54 /   0   0   0   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  18  50  22  51 /   0   0   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  25  53  25  58 /   5   0   0   5
ROY.............................  21  50  24  55 /   5   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  25  51  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  26  53  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  23  54  24  61 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  26  56  27  60 /   5   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  26  56  26  61 /   5   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  27  54  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  26  57  27  64 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  27  55  26  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  26  53  25  56 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52/KJ






000
FXUS65 KABQ 192219
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
319 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF-LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO
NEW MEXICO WITH DRY AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAILING. A
FEW MODERATE BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST OF
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE ERODED AWAY. AS SATURDAY
APPROACHES...A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
NEW MEXICO...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS THE DRY AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. ON SUNDAY...STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE OBSERVED...LEADING TO BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. THE WINDS WILL TURN EVEN STRONGER INTO MONDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCING GUSTY CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...SOME PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BREAKING OUT OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A DRIER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF-LIVED OVER NM THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WERE SLOW TO ERODE AWAY THROUGH THE MORNING AND THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS
ARE STARTING TO ROLL IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD IMPEDE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR FOG/STRATUS TO
FILL BACK IN.

FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE INTO NM ON SATURDAY AS BEING SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH STILL NO
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. A FAIRLY WEAK
GRADIENT ALOFT WILL ALSO PRECLUDE ANY STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO WARM
BY A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT COOLING SLIGHTLY IN THE CORE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT. AS THE
FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...IT WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONGER SEGMENT OF THE POLAR JET
NOSES TOWARD NM.

THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE COMPLEMENTED BY A
DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH...ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO RAMP
UP THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD
BREAK OUT OVER NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN JUAN/TUSAS AND
AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO PEAKS. AND EVEN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT...THE PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL
STILL RISE A COUPLE OF DECAMETERS AND THUS TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE NORTHWESTERLIES
STRENGTHENING EVEN MORE ON MONDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 50 TO 65 KT
DEPICTED AT H7 BY THE GFS. THE SURFACE LOW WOULD BOTTOM OUT CLOSE
TO 1000 MB IN WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED THE PAST TWO SHIFTS FOR MONDAY`S
FORECAST AND MAY NEED MORE SPEED ADDED IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
HOLD. WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE A VERY DYNAMIC DAY NOT ONLY WITH THE WINDS...BUT ALSO
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME PRECIPITATION. POPS HAVE BEEN
PAINTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES MONDAY WITH THE
NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY SEEING FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BANDS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS FARTHER
WEST. THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND PERHAPS A WEAK UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING OVER SOME EASTERN ZONES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHORT OF AVERAGE IN MANY ZONES ON
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY THE EAST WITH PROXIMITY TO COLDER
CONTINENTAL AIR. WINDS SHOULD RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN
COMPARED TO MONDAY`S SPEEDS...HOWEVER THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAVE THINGS QUITE BRISK. A DRIER SPELL SHOULD HOLD FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEING SLOW TO RELAX.

INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE GFS HAS TRENDED FLATTER...OR MORE
ZONAL...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT...BUT STILL KEEPS IT QUITE BRISK WHILE
USHERING ANY PERTURBATION OR PRECIPITATION INTO COLORADO AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. THE EUROPEAN MODEL ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
LEFT ITS AGREEABLE TONE AND HAS NOW REVERTED BACK TO A SOLUTION
THAT BRINGS A MORE POTENT STORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. CONSEQUENTLY THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS ABLE TO LET THE
COLD CANADIAN AIR PLUNGE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WHILE BREAKING OUT
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE STATE. HAVE LEFT MINIMAL POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WHILE THE EUROPEAN HAS NOT HELD MUCH
CONTINUITY OR CONSISTENCY AS WELL AS THE GFS...IT DOES NOT SEEM
TOO FAR-FETCHED TO HAVE THIS COLD CORE LOW BUCKLE THE FLOW AND
PLUNGE FARTHER SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
NARROW NW-SE CORRIDOR OF FAIR/LOCALLY GOOD VENTILATION FROM
CENTRAL INTO SC AREAS WHERE NWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH HAVE
BEEN COMMON IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY/S WAVE PASSAGE.

UNEVENTFUL WX PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY AS NWLY WINDS ALOFT STEADILY
WEAKEN AND MIXING HEIGHTS TREND DOWNWARD. WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION
WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
AND OVERALL DRYING WILL LIMIT EXTENT/EXPANSION OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
ACROSS THE NW/WC VALLEYS AS COMPARED TO THIS PAST NIGHT...BUT PATCHY
COVERAGE PERSISTING AS OF THIS WRITING.

IMPROVED MIXING GOING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH STRENGTHENING NW
WINDS ALOFT AND LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS
SUNDAY 5-15 DEGREES WARMER AS COMPARED TO TODAY. WINDY CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG/IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EXTENDING ACROSS THE WIND-PRONE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  WE KEPT
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE
NM/CO LINE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS TOP DOWN MOISTENING AND
OROGRAPHIC FORCING FOR LIFT INCREASE BUT PREDOMINATELY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A POWERHOUSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET
INTENSIFYING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THE INLAND NORTHWEST
TO THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO MANY AREAS OF NM
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY COLDER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS...NAM AND ESPECIALLY
ECMWF SHOWING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPANDING FARTHER SOUTH ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM AS A BACKDOOR SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL WATCH THIS PERIOD CLOSELY BUT
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ON TAP DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
PERIOD. NO VENTILATION CONCERNS MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD... THE 12Z ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED BACK TOWARD A
DEEPER/STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
AND JUST BEYOND WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A PREDOMINATELY DRY AND
FAST WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH LESS AMPLIFICATION. IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH OVERALL PATTERN...SO
WE/LL AWAIT FURTHER RUNS BEFORE TRENDING STRONGLY EITHER DIRECTION.

KJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT KFMN AND MUCH OF THE NW PLATEAU UNTIL
AROUND 19Z BEFORE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING VFR HIGH CLOUDINESS.
ELSEWHERE...SMALL AREA OF MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS NEAR KTCC AND CVN
TO QUICKLY ERODE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
AREAWIDE WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY. POSSIBILITY OF
FOG/LOW STRATUS RETURNING KFMN AND KGUP LATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT MORNING NOT QUITE AS GREAT AS THIS PAST NIGHT BUT WILL INCLUDE
VCFG AS PLACEHOLDER FOR NOW.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  21  45  23  47 /   0   0   0   5
DULCE...........................   8  42  11  41 /   0   5   5  10
CUBA............................   7  42  13  42 /   0   5   5   5
GALLUP..........................  15  46  19  48 /   0   0   0   5
EL MORRO........................  14  40  18  43 /   0   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  12  45  17  47 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  19  40  23  44 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  27  55  28  58 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................   6  42  10  39 /   0   5  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  21  39  24  42 /   0   0   0   5
PECOS...........................  20  42  23  41 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................   5  39  11  38 /   0   0   0  10
RED RIVER.......................   4  35  10  35 /   5   0   0  20
ANGEL FIRE......................   1  41   7  38 /   5   0   0  10
TAOS............................  10  41  14  40 /   0   0   0   5
MORA............................  17  46  20  44 /   0   0   0   5
ESPANOLA........................  13  43  16  45 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE........................  19  40  26  40 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  18  43  22  45 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  22  44  27  47 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  25  46  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  19  47  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  21  47  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  21  47  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  25  46  28  49 /   0   0   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  25  51  26  56 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  18  41  22  46 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  24  43  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  19  45  19  47 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  20  43  23  45 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  23  44  26  48 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  23  50  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  23  47  24  50 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  14  47  16  48 /   5   0   0   5
RATON...........................  15  50  17  53 /   0   0   0   5
SPRINGER........................  19  51  19  54 /   0   0   0   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  18  50  22  51 /   0   0   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  25  53  25  58 /   5   0   0   5
ROY.............................  21  50  24  55 /   5   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  25  51  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  26  53  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  23  54  24  61 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  26  56  27  60 /   5   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  26  56  26  61 /   5   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  27  54  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  26  57  27  64 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  27  55  26  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  26  53  25  56 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52/KJ






000
FXUS65 KABQ 192219
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
319 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF-LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO
NEW MEXICO WITH DRY AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAILING. A
FEW MODERATE BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST OF
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE ERODED AWAY. AS SATURDAY
APPROACHES...A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
NEW MEXICO...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS THE DRY AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. ON SUNDAY...STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE OBSERVED...LEADING TO BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. THE WINDS WILL TURN EVEN STRONGER INTO MONDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCING GUSTY CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...SOME PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BREAKING OUT OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A DRIER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF-LIVED OVER NM THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WERE SLOW TO ERODE AWAY THROUGH THE MORNING AND THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS
ARE STARTING TO ROLL IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD IMPEDE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR FOG/STRATUS TO
FILL BACK IN.

FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE INTO NM ON SATURDAY AS BEING SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH STILL NO
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. A FAIRLY WEAK
GRADIENT ALOFT WILL ALSO PRECLUDE ANY STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO WARM
BY A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT COOLING SLIGHTLY IN THE CORE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT. AS THE
FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...IT WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONGER SEGMENT OF THE POLAR JET
NOSES TOWARD NM.

THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE COMPLEMENTED BY A
DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH...ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO RAMP
UP THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD
BREAK OUT OVER NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN JUAN/TUSAS AND
AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO PEAKS. AND EVEN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT...THE PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL
STILL RISE A COUPLE OF DECAMETERS AND THUS TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE NORTHWESTERLIES
STRENGTHENING EVEN MORE ON MONDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 50 TO 65 KT
DEPICTED AT H7 BY THE GFS. THE SURFACE LOW WOULD BOTTOM OUT CLOSE
TO 1000 MB IN WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED THE PAST TWO SHIFTS FOR MONDAY`S
FORECAST AND MAY NEED MORE SPEED ADDED IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
HOLD. WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE A VERY DYNAMIC DAY NOT ONLY WITH THE WINDS...BUT ALSO
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME PRECIPITATION. POPS HAVE BEEN
PAINTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES MONDAY WITH THE
NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY SEEING FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BANDS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS FARTHER
WEST. THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND PERHAPS A WEAK UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING OVER SOME EASTERN ZONES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHORT OF AVERAGE IN MANY ZONES ON
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY THE EAST WITH PROXIMITY TO COLDER
CONTINENTAL AIR. WINDS SHOULD RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN
COMPARED TO MONDAY`S SPEEDS...HOWEVER THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAVE THINGS QUITE BRISK. A DRIER SPELL SHOULD HOLD FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEING SLOW TO RELAX.

INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE GFS HAS TRENDED FLATTER...OR MORE
ZONAL...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT...BUT STILL KEEPS IT QUITE BRISK WHILE
USHERING ANY PERTURBATION OR PRECIPITATION INTO COLORADO AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. THE EUROPEAN MODEL ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
LEFT ITS AGREEABLE TONE AND HAS NOW REVERTED BACK TO A SOLUTION
THAT BRINGS A MORE POTENT STORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. CONSEQUENTLY THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS ABLE TO LET THE
COLD CANADIAN AIR PLUNGE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WHILE BREAKING OUT
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE STATE. HAVE LEFT MINIMAL POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WHILE THE EUROPEAN HAS NOT HELD MUCH
CONTINUITY OR CONSISTENCY AS WELL AS THE GFS...IT DOES NOT SEEM
TOO FAR-FETCHED TO HAVE THIS COLD CORE LOW BUCKLE THE FLOW AND
PLUNGE FARTHER SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
NARROW NW-SE CORRIDOR OF FAIR/LOCALLY GOOD VENTILATION FROM
CENTRAL INTO SC AREAS WHERE NWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH HAVE
BEEN COMMON IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY/S WAVE PASSAGE.

UNEVENTFUL WX PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY AS NWLY WINDS ALOFT STEADILY
WEAKEN AND MIXING HEIGHTS TREND DOWNWARD. WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION
WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
AND OVERALL DRYING WILL LIMIT EXTENT/EXPANSION OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
ACROSS THE NW/WC VALLEYS AS COMPARED TO THIS PAST NIGHT...BUT PATCHY
COVERAGE PERSISTING AS OF THIS WRITING.

IMPROVED MIXING GOING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH STRENGTHENING NW
WINDS ALOFT AND LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS
SUNDAY 5-15 DEGREES WARMER AS COMPARED TO TODAY. WINDY CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG/IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EXTENDING ACROSS THE WIND-PRONE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  WE KEPT
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE
NM/CO LINE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS TOP DOWN MOISTENING AND
OROGRAPHIC FORCING FOR LIFT INCREASE BUT PREDOMINATELY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A POWERHOUSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET
INTENSIFYING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THE INLAND NORTHWEST
TO THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO MANY AREAS OF NM
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY COLDER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS...NAM AND ESPECIALLY
ECMWF SHOWING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPANDING FARTHER SOUTH ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM AS A BACKDOOR SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL WATCH THIS PERIOD CLOSELY BUT
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ON TAP DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
PERIOD. NO VENTILATION CONCERNS MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD... THE 12Z ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED BACK TOWARD A
DEEPER/STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
AND JUST BEYOND WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A PREDOMINATELY DRY AND
FAST WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH LESS AMPLIFICATION. IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH OVERALL PATTERN...SO
WE/LL AWAIT FURTHER RUNS BEFORE TRENDING STRONGLY EITHER DIRECTION.

KJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT KFMN AND MUCH OF THE NW PLATEAU UNTIL
AROUND 19Z BEFORE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING VFR HIGH CLOUDINESS.
ELSEWHERE...SMALL AREA OF MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS NEAR KTCC AND CVN
TO QUICKLY ERODE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
AREAWIDE WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY. POSSIBILITY OF
FOG/LOW STRATUS RETURNING KFMN AND KGUP LATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT MORNING NOT QUITE AS GREAT AS THIS PAST NIGHT BUT WILL INCLUDE
VCFG AS PLACEHOLDER FOR NOW.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  21  45  23  47 /   0   0   0   5
DULCE...........................   8  42  11  41 /   0   5   5  10
CUBA............................   7  42  13  42 /   0   5   5   5
GALLUP..........................  15  46  19  48 /   0   0   0   5
EL MORRO........................  14  40  18  43 /   0   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  12  45  17  47 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  19  40  23  44 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  27  55  28  58 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................   6  42  10  39 /   0   5  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  21  39  24  42 /   0   0   0   5
PECOS...........................  20  42  23  41 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................   5  39  11  38 /   0   0   0  10
RED RIVER.......................   4  35  10  35 /   5   0   0  20
ANGEL FIRE......................   1  41   7  38 /   5   0   0  10
TAOS............................  10  41  14  40 /   0   0   0   5
MORA............................  17  46  20  44 /   0   0   0   5
ESPANOLA........................  13  43  16  45 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE........................  19  40  26  40 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  18  43  22  45 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  22  44  27  47 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  25  46  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  19  47  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  21  47  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  21  47  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  25  46  28  49 /   0   0   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  25  51  26  56 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  18  41  22  46 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  24  43  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  19  45  19  47 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  20  43  23  45 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  23  44  26  48 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  23  50  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  23  47  24  50 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  14  47  16  48 /   5   0   0   5
RATON...........................  15  50  17  53 /   0   0   0   5
SPRINGER........................  19  51  19  54 /   0   0   0   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  18  50  22  51 /   0   0   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  25  53  25  58 /   5   0   0   5
ROY.............................  21  50  24  55 /   5   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  25  51  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  26  53  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  23  54  24  61 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  26  56  27  60 /   5   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  26  56  26  61 /   5   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  27  54  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  26  57  27  64 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  27  55  26  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  26  53  25  56 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52/KJ






000
FXUS65 KABQ 192219
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
319 PM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A BRIEF-LIVED RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY WORKING INTO
NEW MEXICO WITH DRY AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL CONDITIONS PREVAILING. A
FEW MODERATE BREEZES HAVE DEVELOPED THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOST OF
THE LOW CLOUDS AND FOG HAVE ERODED AWAY. AS SATURDAY
APPROACHES...A WEAK DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS
NEW MEXICO...HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER AS THE DRY AND MOSTLY TRANQUIL
CONDITIONS SHOULD PERSIST. ON SUNDAY...STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS
ALOFT WILL BE OBSERVED...LEADING TO BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS...MOSTLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND
HIGHLANDS. THE WINDS WILL TURN EVEN STRONGER INTO MONDAY WITH MORE
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF NEW MEXICO EXPERIENCING GUSTY CONDITIONS. IN
ADDITION...SOME PERIODIC SNOW SHOWERS WILL BEGIN BREAKING OUT OVER
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY BEFORE A DRIER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE RIDGING WILL BE BRIEF-LIVED OVER NM THROUGH THE REST OF
THE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. FOG AND LOW STRATUS CLOUDS
WERE SLOW TO ERODE AWAY THROUGH THE MORNING AND THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...BUT DO NOT EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS HIGH CLOUDS
ARE STARTING TO ROLL IN FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD IMPEDE
RADIATIONAL COOLING SOME...MAKING IT DIFFICULT FOR FOG/STRATUS TO
FILL BACK IN.

FORECAST MODELS ARE NOW SHOWING THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE INTO NM ON SATURDAY AS BEING SLIGHTLY WEAKER WITH STILL NO
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION. A FAIRLY WEAK
GRADIENT ALOFT WILL ALSO PRECLUDE ANY STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH
THE PASSAGE OF THE UPPER TROUGH. TEMPERATURES STILL APPEAR TO WARM
BY A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...DESPITE THE TEMPERATURES
ALOFT COOLING SLIGHTLY IN THE CORE OF THE TROUGH ALOFT. AS THE
FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY BEHIND THE TROUGH AXIS...IT WILL BEGIN TO
STRENGTHEN INTO SUNDAY AS A STRONGER SEGMENT OF THE POLAR JET
NOSES TOWARD NM.

THE STRONGER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BE COMPLEMENTED BY A
DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH...ALLOWING SURFACE WINDS TO RAMP
UP THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS COULD
BREAK OUT OVER NORTHWEST FACING SLOPES OF THE SAN JUAN/TUSAS AND
AND NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO PEAKS. AND EVEN WITH THE
STRENGTHENING NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT...THE PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL
STILL RISE A COUPLE OF DECAMETERS AND THUS TEMPERATURES WILL STILL
RISE ANOTHER COUPLE DEGREES.

THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE NOW SHOWS THE NORTHWESTERLIES
STRENGTHENING EVEN MORE ON MONDAY WITH AN IMPRESSIVE 50 TO 65 KT
DEPICTED AT H7 BY THE GFS. THE SURFACE LOW WOULD BOTTOM OUT CLOSE
TO 1000 MB IN WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY AHEAD OF A FAST-MOVING COLD
FRONT. WINDS HAVE BEEN INCREASED THE PAST TWO SHIFTS FOR MONDAY`S
FORECAST AND MAY NEED MORE SPEED ADDED IF CURRENT MODEL TRENDS
HOLD. WITH A DEEPENING UPPER LOW OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS...MONDAY
LOOKS TO BE A VERY DYNAMIC DAY NOT ONLY WITH THE WINDS...BUT ALSO
WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SOME PRECIPITATION. POPS HAVE BEEN
PAINTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF ZONES MONDAY WITH THE
NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY SEEING FRONTOGENETICALLY FORCED BANDS OF
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND MORE OROGRAPHICALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS FARTHER
WEST. THE LOW LEVEL FRONTOGENESIS...AND PERHAPS A WEAK UPSLOPE
COMPONENT...COULD KEEP PRECIPITATION GOING OVER SOME EASTERN ZONES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SHORT OF AVERAGE IN MANY ZONES ON
TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY THE EAST WITH PROXIMITY TO COLDER
CONTINENTAL AIR. WINDS SHOULD RELAX SUBSTANTIALLY ON TUESDAY WHEN
COMPARED TO MONDAY`S SPEEDS...HOWEVER THE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL
LEAVE THINGS QUITE BRISK. A DRIER SPELL SHOULD HOLD FOR TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY WITH NORTHWESTERLY FLOW BEING SLOW TO RELAX.

INTO THURSDAY AND FRIDAY THE GFS HAS TRENDED FLATTER...OR MORE
ZONAL...WITH THE FLOW ALOFT...BUT STILL KEEPS IT QUITE BRISK WHILE
USHERING ANY PERTURBATION OR PRECIPITATION INTO COLORADO AND
POINTS FARTHER NORTH. THE EUROPEAN MODEL ON THE OTHER HAND HAS
LEFT ITS AGREEABLE TONE AND HAS NOW REVERTED BACK TO A SOLUTION
THAT BRINGS A MORE POTENT STORM ACROSS THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN
ROCKIES. CONSEQUENTLY THE EUROPEAN SOLUTION IS ABLE TO LET THE
COLD CANADIAN AIR PLUNGE MUCH FARTHER SOUTH WHILE BREAKING OUT
PRECIPITATION OVER PARTS OF THE STATE. HAVE LEFT MINIMAL POPS IN
THE FORECAST FOR NOW. WHILE THE EUROPEAN HAS NOT HELD MUCH
CONTINUITY OR CONSISTENCY AS WELL AS THE GFS...IT DOES NOT SEEM
TOO FAR-FETCHED TO HAVE THIS COLD CORE LOW BUCKLE THE FLOW AND
PLUNGE FARTHER SOUTH.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER/SUBSIDENT AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY.
NARROW NW-SE CORRIDOR OF FAIR/LOCALLY GOOD VENTILATION FROM
CENTRAL INTO SC AREAS WHERE NWLY SURFACE WINDS OF 10-20 MPH HAVE
BEEN COMMON IN WAKE OF YESTERDAY/S WAVE PASSAGE.

UNEVENTFUL WX PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY AS NWLY WINDS ALOFT STEADILY
WEAKEN AND MIXING HEIGHTS TREND DOWNWARD. WIDESPREAD POOR VENTILATION
WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER CONCERN. PERIODS OF HIGH CLOUDINESS
AND OVERALL DRYING WILL LIMIT EXTENT/EXPANSION OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG
ACROSS THE NW/WC VALLEYS AS COMPARED TO THIS PAST NIGHT...BUT PATCHY
COVERAGE PERSISTING AS OF THIS WRITING.

IMPROVED MIXING GOING INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON BENEATH STRENGTHENING NW
WINDS ALOFT AND LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGHING. FORECAST MAX TEMPS
SUNDAY 5-15 DEGREES WARMER AS COMPARED TO TODAY. WINDY CONDITIONS
LIKELY TO DEVELOP ALONG/IMMEDIATELY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN EXTENDING ACROSS THE WIND-PRONE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.  WE KEPT
A SMALL CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN NEAR THE
NM/CO LINE LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS TOP DOWN MOISTENING AND
OROGRAPHIC FORCING FOR LIFT INCREASE BUT PREDOMINATELY DRY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND.

MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP A POWERHOUSE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS STATES LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THAT WILL SLOWLY
TRANSLATE EASTWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK. ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL JET
INTENSIFYING ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM FROM THE INLAND NORTHWEST
TO THE FOUR CORNERS WILL BRING WINDY CONDITIONS TO MANY AREAS OF NM
DURING THE DAY MONDAY INTO MONDAY EVENING FOLLOWED BY COLDER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GFS...NAM AND ESPECIALLY
ECMWF SHOWING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW EXPANDING FARTHER SOUTH ON THE
EASTERN PLAINS OF NM AS A BACKDOOR SEGMENT OF THE COLD FRONT PRESSES
SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.  WILL WATCH THIS PERIOD CLOSELY BUT
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES ON TAP DURING THE SUNDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
PERIOD. NO VENTILATION CONCERNS MONDAY OR TUESDAY.

LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD... THE 12Z ECMWF HAS NOW TRENDED BACK TOWARD A
DEEPER/STRONGER SHORTWAVE PASSING OVER THE AREA FOR CHRISTMAS DAY
AND JUST BEYOND WHILE THE GFS ADVERTISES A PREDOMINATELY DRY AND
FAST WESTERLY FLOW REGIME WITH LESS AMPLIFICATION. IMPORTANT TO NOTE
THAT BOTH MODELS HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH OVERALL PATTERN...SO
WE/LL AWAIT FURTHER RUNS BEFORE TRENDING STRONGLY EITHER DIRECTION.

KJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT KFMN AND MUCH OF THE NW PLATEAU UNTIL
AROUND 19Z BEFORE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING VFR HIGH CLOUDINESS.
ELSEWHERE...SMALL AREA OF MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS NEAR KTCC AND CVN
TO QUICKLY ERODE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
AREAWIDE WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY. POSSIBILITY OF
FOG/LOW STRATUS RETURNING KFMN AND KGUP LATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT MORNING NOT QUITE AS GREAT AS THIS PAST NIGHT BUT WILL INCLUDE
VCFG AS PLACEHOLDER FOR NOW.  32

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  21  45  23  47 /   0   0   0   5
DULCE...........................   8  42  11  41 /   0   5   5  10
CUBA............................   7  42  13  42 /   0   5   5   5
GALLUP..........................  15  46  19  48 /   0   0   0   5
EL MORRO........................  14  40  18  43 /   0   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  12  45  17  47 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  19  40  23  44 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  27  55  28  58 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................   6  42  10  39 /   0   5  10  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  21  39  24  42 /   0   0   0   5
PECOS...........................  20  42  23  41 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................   5  39  11  38 /   0   0   0  10
RED RIVER.......................   4  35  10  35 /   5   0   0  20
ANGEL FIRE......................   1  41   7  38 /   5   0   0  10
TAOS............................  10  41  14  40 /   0   0   0   5
MORA............................  17  46  20  44 /   0   0   0   5
ESPANOLA........................  13  43  16  45 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE........................  19  40  26  40 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  18  43  22  45 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  22  44  27  47 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  25  46  29  50 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  19  47  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  21  47  23  49 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  21  47  22  51 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  25  46  28  49 /   0   0   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  25  51  26  56 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  18  41  22  46 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  24  43  26  47 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  19  45  19  47 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  20  43  23  45 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  23  44  26  48 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  23  50  26  52 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  23  47  24  50 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  14  47  16  48 /   5   0   0   5
RATON...........................  15  50  17  53 /   0   0   0   5
SPRINGER........................  19  51  19  54 /   0   0   0   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  18  50  22  51 /   0   0   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  25  53  25  58 /   5   0   0   5
ROY.............................  21  50  24  55 /   5   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  25  51  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  26  53  27  57 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  23  54  24  61 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  26  56  27  60 /   5   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  26  56  26  61 /   5   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  27  54  28  61 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  26  57  27  64 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  27  55  26  59 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  26  53  25  56 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52/KJ






000
FXUS65 KABQ 191738 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1038 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT KFMN AND MUCH OF THE NW PLATEAU UNTIL
AROUND 19Z BEFORE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING VFR HIGH CLOUDINESS.
ELSEWHERE...SMALL AREA OF MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS NEAR KTCC AND CVN
TO QUICKLY ERODE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
AREAWIDE WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY. POSSIBILITY OF
FOG/LOW STRATUS RETURNING KFMN AND KGUP LATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT MORNING NOT QUITE AS GREAT AS THIS PAST NIGHT BUT WILL INCLUDE
VCFG AS PLACEHOLDER FOR NOW.  32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 11 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS PEAKING AROUND 3 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD SPAWN
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FALL AREA WIDE ON
TUESDAY...ONLY TO REBOUND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. SOME COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN CHRISTMAS AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG ARE A BIT OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING...SINCE MUCH OF THE EXPECTED FOG HAS YET TO
DEVELOP. SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD FAVOR
LOCATIONS WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND OR THAT HAVE WET GROUND
FROM OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL LIKE THE NW DUE TO SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM WEATHER SYSTEMS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG NEW MEXICOS EASTERN BORDER AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY EXITS EASTWARD FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE NOSE OF A POLAR JET STREAK MOVES OVER THE AREA. SPEEDS
SHOULD PEAK MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH FROM
CLINES CORNERS TO THE CAPITAN MOUNTAINS.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DONT MAKE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
CLIP NE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OUT TO BE TOO WELL ORGANIZED
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD.

THERE IS NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN COMPUTER MODELS ON THE POTENTIAL
STORM FOR CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A CLOSED UPPER LOW SAGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...BUT THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS DEMONSTRATED A
TENDENCY SO FAR THIS COOL SEASON TO OVERPLAY THE DEPTH OF STORM
SYSTEMS BEYOND DAY 5 OF THE FORECAST...SO WE ARE TAKING ITS WET
AND WINTRY SOLUTION WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
POOR VENTILATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WINDS BEGINNING
SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

CURRENTLY...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE REGION WITH MOIST SOILS STILL IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAIN/SNOW.
A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM WILL FAVOR LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES. A WEAK
UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS SUNDAY BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH POOR
VENT RATES AGAIN. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR LATE
DECEMBER NORMALS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN CARVING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
AND INCREASE WINDS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RIDGE TOP WINDS
WILL INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MIXING AND VENTILATION. TEMPS AGAIN WILL
STAY ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE NORTHWEST FLOW...AND OVERALL HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 PCT IN THE EAST. THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN EVEN
MORE BY MONDAY AND SAG SOUTH...CREATING WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE
TO EXCELLENT JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN MTS AND THE FAR NORTHEAST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY.

FINALLY BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION...TRENDING TEMPS 5 TO 15F COOLER. VENT RATES ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO DETERIORATE BEHIND THIS AIRMASS WITH LIGHT
WINDS MOVING IN ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND TUESDAY HAS FLUCTUATED
WIDELY WITH A POTENTIAL STRONG STORM SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH CHRISTMAS. AT THIS TIME THE
TREND IS FOR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH MUCH DRIER AND
COLDER AIR AROUND CHRISTMAS. IF THE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS FARTHER
SOUTH THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND WIND COULD IMPACT THE AREA.
REGARDLESS...IT FINALLY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH COLDER PERIOD OF TEMPS
WOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 191738 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1038 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
IFR/LIFR CIGS WILL LINGER AT KFMN AND MUCH OF THE NW PLATEAU UNTIL
AROUND 19Z BEFORE GIVING WAY TO INCREASING VFR HIGH CLOUDINESS.
ELSEWHERE...SMALL AREA OF MVFR/IFR LOW CLOUDS NEAR KTCC AND CVN
TO QUICKLY ERODE. OTHERWISE...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL
AREAWIDE WITH NO MAJOR WEATHER CONCERNS FOR TODAY. POSSIBILITY OF
FOG/LOW STRATUS RETURNING KFMN AND KGUP LATE TONIGHT INTO
SAT MORNING NOT QUITE AS GREAT AS THIS PAST NIGHT BUT WILL INCLUDE
VCFG AS PLACEHOLDER FOR NOW.  32

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 11 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS PEAKING AROUND 3 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD SPAWN
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FALL AREA WIDE ON
TUESDAY...ONLY TO REBOUND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. SOME COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN CHRISTMAS AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG ARE A BIT OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING...SINCE MUCH OF THE EXPECTED FOG HAS YET TO
DEVELOP. SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD FAVOR
LOCATIONS WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND OR THAT HAVE WET GROUND
FROM OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL LIKE THE NW DUE TO SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM WEATHER SYSTEMS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG NEW MEXICOS EASTERN BORDER AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY EXITS EASTWARD FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE NOSE OF A POLAR JET STREAK MOVES OVER THE AREA. SPEEDS
SHOULD PEAK MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH FROM
CLINES CORNERS TO THE CAPITAN MOUNTAINS.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DONT MAKE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
CLIP NE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OUT TO BE TOO WELL ORGANIZED
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD.

THERE IS NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN COMPUTER MODELS ON THE POTENTIAL
STORM FOR CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A CLOSED UPPER LOW SAGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...BUT THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS DEMONSTRATED A
TENDENCY SO FAR THIS COOL SEASON TO OVERPLAY THE DEPTH OF STORM
SYSTEMS BEYOND DAY 5 OF THE FORECAST...SO WE ARE TAKING ITS WET
AND WINTRY SOLUTION WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
POOR VENTILATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WINDS BEGINNING
SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

CURRENTLY...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE REGION WITH MOIST SOILS STILL IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAIN/SNOW.
A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM WILL FAVOR LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES. A WEAK
UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS SUNDAY BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH POOR
VENT RATES AGAIN. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR LATE
DECEMBER NORMALS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN CARVING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
AND INCREASE WINDS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RIDGE TOP WINDS
WILL INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MIXING AND VENTILATION. TEMPS AGAIN WILL
STAY ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE NORTHWEST FLOW...AND OVERALL HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 PCT IN THE EAST. THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN EVEN
MORE BY MONDAY AND SAG SOUTH...CREATING WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE
TO EXCELLENT JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN MTS AND THE FAR NORTHEAST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY.

FINALLY BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION...TRENDING TEMPS 5 TO 15F COOLER. VENT RATES ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO DETERIORATE BEHIND THIS AIRMASS WITH LIGHT
WINDS MOVING IN ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND TUESDAY HAS FLUCTUATED
WIDELY WITH A POTENTIAL STRONG STORM SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH CHRISTMAS. AT THIS TIME THE
TREND IS FOR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH MUCH DRIER AND
COLDER AIR AROUND CHRISTMAS. IF THE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS FARTHER
SOUTH THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND WIND COULD IMPACT THE AREA.
REGARDLESS...IT FINALLY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH COLDER PERIOD OF TEMPS
WOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 191145 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
445 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG IMPACTING WESTERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL
CONTINUE THRU SUNRISE. FOCUS AREAS STRETCH FROM EAST OF KFMN TO
KGUP AND FROM KCVS TO KTCC. SKIES WILL CLEAR THRU THE MORNING AS
DRIER NW FLOW DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST ALONG THE CONT DVD
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MT TOP OBSCURATIONS LIKELY. A WEAK
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER TONIGHT WITH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS RETURNING.
THE AREA FROM KFMN TO KGUP MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS HOWEVER SINCE HIGH CLOUDS AND
DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL. FUTURE TAF CYCLES MAY PROVIDE
BETTER CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE SOME IMPACTS FROM LOW CLOUDS/FOG.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 11 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS PEAKING AROUND 3 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD SPAWN
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FALL AREAWIDE ON
TUESDAY...ONLY TO REBOUND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. SOME COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN CHRISTMAS AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG ARE A BIT OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING...SINCE MUCH OF THE EXPECTED FOG HAS YET TO
DEVELOP. SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD FAVOR
LOCATIONS WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND OR THAT HAVE WET GROUND
FROM OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL LIKE THE NW DUE TO SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM WEATHER SYSTEMS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG NEW MEXICOS EASTERN BORDER AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY EXITS EASTWARD FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE NOSE OF A POLAR JET STREAK MOVES OVER THE AREA. SPEEDS
SHOULD PEAK MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH FROM
CLINES CORNERS TO THE CAPITAN MOUNTAINS.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DONT MAKE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
CLIP NE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OUT TO BE TOO WELL ORGANIZED
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD.

THERE IS NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN COMPUTER MODELS ON THE POTENTIAL
STORM FOR CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A CLOSED UPPER LOW SAGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...BUT THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS DEMONSTRATED A
TENDENCY SO FAR THIS COOL SEASON TO OVERPLAY THE DEPTH OF STORM
SYSTEMS BEYOND DAY 5 OF THE FORECAST...SO WE ARE TAKING ITS WET
AND WINTRY SOLUTION WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
POOR VENTILATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WINDS BEGINNING
SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

CURRENTLY...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE REGION WITH MOIST SOILS STILL IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAIN/SNOW.
A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM WILL FAVOR LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES. A WEAK
UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS SUNDAY BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH POOR
VENT RATES AGAIN. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR LATE
DECEMBER NORMALS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN CARVING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
AND INCREASE WINDS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RIDGE TOP WINDS
WILL INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MIXING AND VENTILATION. TEMPS AGAIN WILL
STAY ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE NORTHWEST FLOW...AND OVERALL HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 PCT IN THE EAST. THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN EVEN
MORE BY MONDAY AND SAG SOUTH...CREATING WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE
TO EXCELLENT JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN MTS AND THE FAR NORTHEAST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY.

FINALLY BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION...TRENDING TEMPS 5 TO 15F COOLER. VENT RATES ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO DETERIORATE BEHIND THIS AIRMASS WITH LIGHT
WINDS MOVING IN ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND TUESDAY HAS FLUCTUATED
WIDELY WITH A POTENTIAL STRONG STORM SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH CHRISTMAS. AT THIS TIME THE
TREND IS FOR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH MUCH DRIER AND
COLDER AIR AROUND CHRISTMAS. IF THE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS FARTHER
SOUTH THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND WIND COULD IMPACT THE AREA.
REGARDLESS...IT FINALLY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH COLDER PERIOD OF TEMPS
WOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 191145 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
445 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG IMPACTING WESTERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL
CONTINUE THRU SUNRISE. FOCUS AREAS STRETCH FROM EAST OF KFMN TO
KGUP AND FROM KCVS TO KTCC. SKIES WILL CLEAR THRU THE MORNING AS
DRIER NW FLOW DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST ALONG THE CONT DVD
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MT TOP OBSCURATIONS LIKELY. A WEAK
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER TONIGHT WITH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS RETURNING.
THE AREA FROM KFMN TO KGUP MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS HOWEVER SINCE HIGH CLOUDS AND
DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL. FUTURE TAF CYCLES MAY PROVIDE
BETTER CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE SOME IMPACTS FROM LOW CLOUDS/FOG.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 11 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS PEAKING AROUND 3 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD SPAWN
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FALL AREAWIDE ON
TUESDAY...ONLY TO REBOUND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. SOME COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN CHRISTMAS AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG ARE A BIT OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING...SINCE MUCH OF THE EXPECTED FOG HAS YET TO
DEVELOP. SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD FAVOR
LOCATIONS WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND OR THAT HAVE WET GROUND
FROM OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL LIKE THE NW DUE TO SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM WEATHER SYSTEMS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG NEW MEXICOS EASTERN BORDER AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY EXITS EASTWARD FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE NOSE OF A POLAR JET STREAK MOVES OVER THE AREA. SPEEDS
SHOULD PEAK MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH FROM
CLINES CORNERS TO THE CAPITAN MOUNTAINS.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DONT MAKE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
CLIP NE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OUT TO BE TOO WELL ORGANIZED
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD.

THERE IS NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN COMPUTER MODELS ON THE POTENTIAL
STORM FOR CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A CLOSED UPPER LOW SAGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...BUT THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS DEMONSTRATED A
TENDENCY SO FAR THIS COOL SEASON TO OVERPLAY THE DEPTH OF STORM
SYSTEMS BEYOND DAY 5 OF THE FORECAST...SO WE ARE TAKING ITS WET
AND WINTRY SOLUTION WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
POOR VENTILATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WINDS BEGINNING
SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

CURRENTLY...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE REGION WITH MOIST SOILS STILL IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAIN/SNOW.
A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM WILL FAVOR LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES. A WEAK
UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS SUNDAY BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH POOR
VENT RATES AGAIN. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR LATE
DECEMBER NORMALS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN CARVING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
AND INCREASE WINDS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RIDGE TOP WINDS
WILL INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MIXING AND VENTILATION. TEMPS AGAIN WILL
STAY ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE NORTHWEST FLOW...AND OVERALL HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 PCT IN THE EAST. THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN EVEN
MORE BY MONDAY AND SAG SOUTH...CREATING WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE
TO EXCELLENT JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN MTS AND THE FAR NORTHEAST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY.

FINALLY BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION...TRENDING TEMPS 5 TO 15F COOLER. VENT RATES ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO DETERIORATE BEHIND THIS AIRMASS WITH LIGHT
WINDS MOVING IN ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND TUESDAY HAS FLUCTUATED
WIDELY WITH A POTENTIAL STRONG STORM SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH CHRISTMAS. AT THIS TIME THE
TREND IS FOR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH MUCH DRIER AND
COLDER AIR AROUND CHRISTMAS. IF THE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS FARTHER
SOUTH THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND WIND COULD IMPACT THE AREA.
REGARDLESS...IT FINALLY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH COLDER PERIOD OF TEMPS
WOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 191145 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
445 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG IMPACTING WESTERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL
CONTINUE THRU SUNRISE. FOCUS AREAS STRETCH FROM EAST OF KFMN TO
KGUP AND FROM KCVS TO KTCC. SKIES WILL CLEAR THRU THE MORNING AS
DRIER NW FLOW DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST ALONG THE CONT DVD
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MT TOP OBSCURATIONS LIKELY. A WEAK
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER TONIGHT WITH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS RETURNING.
THE AREA FROM KFMN TO KGUP MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS HOWEVER SINCE HIGH CLOUDS AND
DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL. FUTURE TAF CYCLES MAY PROVIDE
BETTER CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE SOME IMPACTS FROM LOW CLOUDS/FOG.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 11 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS PEAKING AROUND 3 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD SPAWN
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FALL AREAWIDE ON
TUESDAY...ONLY TO REBOUND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. SOME COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN CHRISTMAS AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG ARE A BIT OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING...SINCE MUCH OF THE EXPECTED FOG HAS YET TO
DEVELOP. SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD FAVOR
LOCATIONS WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND OR THAT HAVE WET GROUND
FROM OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL LIKE THE NW DUE TO SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM WEATHER SYSTEMS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG NEW MEXICOS EASTERN BORDER AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY EXITS EASTWARD FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE NOSE OF A POLAR JET STREAK MOVES OVER THE AREA. SPEEDS
SHOULD PEAK MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH FROM
CLINES CORNERS TO THE CAPITAN MOUNTAINS.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DONT MAKE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
CLIP NE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OUT TO BE TOO WELL ORGANIZED
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD.

THERE IS NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN COMPUTER MODELS ON THE POTENTIAL
STORM FOR CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A CLOSED UPPER LOW SAGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...BUT THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS DEMONSTRATED A
TENDENCY SO FAR THIS COOL SEASON TO OVERPLAY THE DEPTH OF STORM
SYSTEMS BEYOND DAY 5 OF THE FORECAST...SO WE ARE TAKING ITS WET
AND WINTRY SOLUTION WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
POOR VENTILATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WINDS BEGINNING
SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

CURRENTLY...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE REGION WITH MOIST SOILS STILL IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAIN/SNOW.
A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM WILL FAVOR LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES. A WEAK
UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS SUNDAY BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH POOR
VENT RATES AGAIN. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR LATE
DECEMBER NORMALS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN CARVING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
AND INCREASE WINDS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RIDGE TOP WINDS
WILL INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MIXING AND VENTILATION. TEMPS AGAIN WILL
STAY ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE NORTHWEST FLOW...AND OVERALL HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 PCT IN THE EAST. THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN EVEN
MORE BY MONDAY AND SAG SOUTH...CREATING WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE
TO EXCELLENT JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN MTS AND THE FAR NORTHEAST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY.

FINALLY BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION...TRENDING TEMPS 5 TO 15F COOLER. VENT RATES ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO DETERIORATE BEHIND THIS AIRMASS WITH LIGHT
WINDS MOVING IN ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND TUESDAY HAS FLUCTUATED
WIDELY WITH A POTENTIAL STRONG STORM SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH CHRISTMAS. AT THIS TIME THE
TREND IS FOR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH MUCH DRIER AND
COLDER AIR AROUND CHRISTMAS. IF THE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS FARTHER
SOUTH THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND WIND COULD IMPACT THE AREA.
REGARDLESS...IT FINALLY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH COLDER PERIOD OF TEMPS
WOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 191145 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
445 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CLOUDS/PATCHY FOG IMPACTING WESTERN AND EASTERN AREAS WILL
CONTINUE THRU SUNRISE. FOCUS AREAS STRETCH FROM EAST OF KFMN TO
KGUP AND FROM KCVS TO KTCC. SKIES WILL CLEAR THRU THE MORNING AS
DRIER NW FLOW DEVELOPS. LOW CLOUDS MAY PERSIST ALONG THE CONT DVD
THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON WITH MT TOP OBSCURATIONS LIKELY. A WEAK
RIDGE WILL SLIDE OVER TONIGHT WITH PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS RETURNING.
THE AREA FROM KFMN TO KGUP MAY SEE ADDITIONAL PATCHY FOG AFTER
MIDNIGHT. DID NOT INCLUDE IN TAFS HOWEVER SINCE HIGH CLOUDS AND
DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL. FUTURE TAF CYCLES MAY PROVIDE
BETTER CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE SOME IMPACTS FROM LOW CLOUDS/FOG.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 11 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS PEAKING AROUND 3 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD SPAWN
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FALL AREAWIDE ON
TUESDAY...ONLY TO REBOUND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. SOME COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN CHRISTMAS AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG ARE A BIT OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING...SINCE MUCH OF THE EXPECTED FOG HAS YET TO
DEVELOP. SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD FAVOR
LOCATIONS WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND OR THAT HAVE WET GROUND
FROM OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL LIKE THE NW DUE TO SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM WEATHER SYSTEMS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG NEW MEXICOS EASTERN BORDER AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY EXITS EASTWARD FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE NOSE OF A POLAR JET STREAK MOVES OVER THE AREA. SPEEDS
SHOULD PEAK MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH FROM
CLINES CORNERS TO THE CAPITAN MOUNTAINS.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DONT MAKE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
CLIP NE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OUT TO BE TOO WELL ORGANIZED
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD.

THERE IS NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN COMPUTER MODELS ON THE POTENTIAL
STORM FOR CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A CLOSED UPPER LOW SAGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...BUT THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS DEMONSTRATED A
TENDENCY SO FAR THIS COOL SEASON TO OVERPLAY THE DEPTH OF STORM
SYSTEMS BEYOND DAY 5 OF THE FORECAST...SO WE ARE TAKING ITS WET
AND WINTRY SOLUTION WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
POOR VENTILATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WINDS BEGINNING
SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

CURRENTLY...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE REGION WITH MOIST SOILS STILL IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAIN/SNOW.
A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM WILL FAVOR LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES. A WEAK
UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS SUNDAY BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH POOR
VENT RATES AGAIN. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR LATE
DECEMBER NORMALS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN CARVING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
AND INCREASE WINDS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RIDGE TOP WINDS
WILL INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MIXING AND VENTILATION. TEMPS AGAIN WILL
STAY ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE NORTHWEST FLOW...AND OVERALL HUMIDITIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 PCT IN THE EAST. THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN EVEN
MORE BY MONDAY AND SAG SOUTH...CREATING WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE
TO EXCELLENT JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN MTS AND THE FAR NORTHEAST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY.

FINALLY BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION...TRENDING TEMPS 5 TO 15F COOLER. VENT RATES ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO DETERIORATE BEHIND THIS AIRMASS WITH LIGHT
WINDS MOVING IN ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND TUESDAY HAS FLUCTUATED
WIDELY WITH A POTENTIAL STRONG STORM SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH CHRISTMAS. AT THIS TIME THE
TREND IS FOR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH MUCH DRIER AND
COLDER AIR AROUND CHRISTMAS. IF THE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS FARTHER
SOUTH THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND WIND COULD IMPACT THE AREA.
REGARDLESS...IT FINALLY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH COLDER PERIOD OF TEMPS
WOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$






000
FXUS65 KABQ 191030
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 11 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS PEAKING AROUND 3 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD SPAWN
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FALL AREAWIDE ON
TUESDAY...ONLY TO REBOUND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. SOME COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN CHRISTMAS AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG ARE A BIT OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING...SINCE MUCH OF THE EXPECTED FOG HAS YET TO
DEVELOP. SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD FAVOR
LOCATIONS WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND OR THAT HAVE WET GROUND
FROM OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL LIKE THE NW DUE TO SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM WEATHER SYSTEMS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG NEW MEXICOS EASTERN BORDER AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY EXITS EASTWARD FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE NOSE OF A POLAR JET STREAK MOVES OVER THE AREA. SPEEDS
SHOULD PEAK MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH FROM
CLINES CORNERS TO THE CAPITAN MOUNTAINS.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DONT MAKE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
CLIP NE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OUT TO BE TOO WELL ORGANIZED
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD.

THERE IS NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN COMPUTER MODELS ON THE POTENTIAL
STORM FOR CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A CLOSED UPPER LOW SAGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...BUT THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS DEMONSTRATED A
TENDENCY SO FAR THIS COOL SEASON TO OVERPLAY THE DEPTH OF STORM
SYSTEMS BEYOND DAY 5 OF THE FORECAST...SO WE ARE TAKING ITS WET
AND WINTRY SOLUTION WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
POOR VENTILATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WINDS BEGINNING
SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

CURRENTLY...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE REGION WITH MOIST SOILS STILL IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAIN/SNOW.
A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM WILL FAVOR LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES. A WEAK
UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS SUNDAY BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH POOR
VENT RATES AGAIN. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR LATE
DECEMBER NORMALS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN CARVING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
AND INCREASE WINDS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RIDGE TOP WINDS
WILL INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MIXING AND VENTILATION. TEMPS AGAIN WILL
STAY ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE NORTHWEST FLOW...AND OVERALL HUMIDITIIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 PCT IN THE EAST. THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN EVEN
MORE BY MONDAY AND SAG SOUTH...CREATING WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE
TO EXCELLENT JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN MTS AND THE FAR NORTHEAST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY.

FINALLY BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION...TRENDING TEMPS 5 TO 15F COOLER. VENT RATES ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO DETERIORATE BEHIND THIS AIRMASS WITH LIGHT
WINDS MOVING IN ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND TUESDAY HAS FLUCTUATED
WIDELY WITH A POTENTIAL STRONG STORM SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH CHRISTMAS. AT THIS TIME THE
TREND IS FOR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH MUCH DRIER AND
COLDER AIR AROUND CHRISTMAS. IF THE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS FARTHER
SOUTH THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND WIND COULD IMPACT THE AREA.
REGARDLESS...IT FINALLY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH COLDER PERIOD OF TEMPS
WOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE STATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST...FAVORING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
INCLUDING KSRR...THE KROW AREA AND KCVS THROUGH AROUND 08Z TO 09Z.
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN...SOME SPOT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON AS HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE EAST BUT CIGS OF BKN-OVC030-040 EXTEND OVER THE SAN JUAN AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL IMPACT
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO...INCLUDING KGUP AND POSSIBLY
KFMN...THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR AND LOCAL LIFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES. AS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL...FROM KCAO TO KTCC
AND KCVS. NOT CONVINCED THAT THE PECOS VALLEY WILL BE IMPACTED
THUS ONLY CARRYING SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS AT KROW. BY MID DAY...LOOK
FOR NORTHWEST FLOW TO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR WITH CLEARING BY
LATE MORNING TO MID DAY MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO ERODE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHWEST.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  40  21  45  23 /   0   0   0   5
DULCE...........................  35   9  41  14 /   0   0   5   5
CUBA............................  34   9  42  15 /   0   0   5   5
GALLUP..........................  39  16  45  19 /   0   0   0   5
EL MORRO........................  35  14  40  18 /   0   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  38  12  45  16 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  37  20  38  23 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  49  27  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  32   8  43  12 /   5   0   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  37  23  37  24 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  37  21  41  23 /   5   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  32   9  37  12 /   5   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  28  12  35  14 /   5   5   0   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  32   1  40   6 /   5   5   0   5
TAOS............................  34  11  40  14 /   5   0   0   0
MORA............................  38  19  45  21 /   5   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  40  20  42  22 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  35  24  38  25 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  39  19  44  22 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  41  29  43  29 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  43  24  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  44  24  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  43  24  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  45  18  46  21 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  42  25  46  27 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  48  23  51  26 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  38  24  41  25 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  40  25  44  27 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  42  18  45  21 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  38  20  44  23 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  42  23  44  26 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  46  23  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  43  22  47  26 /   5   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  39  19  41  21 /   5   5   0   0
RATON...........................  42  16  50  18 /   5   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  46  18  51  20 /   5   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  43  18  51  21 /   5   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  46  25  53  25 /   5   5   0   0
ROY.............................  46  21  50  23 /   5   5   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  49  26  51  27 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  50  26  53  28 /   5   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  49  23  55  23 /   5   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  50  25  55  25 /   5   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  52  26  56  26 /   5   5   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  52  27  53  28 /   5   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  56  26  58  27 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  51  27  55  30 /   5   0   0   0
ELK.............................  49  25  53  30 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS65 KABQ 191030
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 11 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS PEAKING AROUND 3 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD SPAWN
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FALL AREAWIDE ON
TUESDAY...ONLY TO REBOUND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. SOME COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN CHRISTMAS AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG ARE A BIT OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING...SINCE MUCH OF THE EXPECTED FOG HAS YET TO
DEVELOP. SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD FAVOR
LOCATIONS WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND OR THAT HAVE WET GROUND
FROM OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL LIKE THE NW DUE TO SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM WEATHER SYSTEMS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG NEW MEXICOS EASTERN BORDER AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY EXITS EASTWARD FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE NOSE OF A POLAR JET STREAK MOVES OVER THE AREA. SPEEDS
SHOULD PEAK MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH FROM
CLINES CORNERS TO THE CAPITAN MOUNTAINS.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DONT MAKE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
CLIP NE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OUT TO BE TOO WELL ORGANIZED
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD.

THERE IS NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN COMPUTER MODELS ON THE POTENTIAL
STORM FOR CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A CLOSED UPPER LOW SAGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...BUT THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS DEMONSTRATED A
TENDENCY SO FAR THIS COOL SEASON TO OVERPLAY THE DEPTH OF STORM
SYSTEMS BEYOND DAY 5 OF THE FORECAST...SO WE ARE TAKING ITS WET
AND WINTRY SOLUTION WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
POOR VENTILATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WINDS BEGINNING
SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

CURRENTLY...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE REGION WITH MOIST SOILS STILL IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAIN/SNOW.
A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM WILL FAVOR LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES. A WEAK
UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS SUNDAY BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH POOR
VENT RATES AGAIN. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR LATE
DECEMBER NORMALS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN CARVING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
AND INCREASE WINDS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RIDGE TOP WINDS
WILL INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MIXING AND VENTILATION. TEMPS AGAIN WILL
STAY ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE NORTHWEST FLOW...AND OVERALL HUMIDITIIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 PCT IN THE EAST. THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN EVEN
MORE BY MONDAY AND SAG SOUTH...CREATING WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE
TO EXCELLENT JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN MTS AND THE FAR NORTHEAST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY.

FINALLY BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION...TRENDING TEMPS 5 TO 15F COOLER. VENT RATES ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO DETERIORATE BEHIND THIS AIRMASS WITH LIGHT
WINDS MOVING IN ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND TUESDAY HAS FLUCTUATED
WIDELY WITH A POTENTIAL STRONG STORM SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH CHRISTMAS. AT THIS TIME THE
TREND IS FOR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH MUCH DRIER AND
COLDER AIR AROUND CHRISTMAS. IF THE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS FARTHER
SOUTH THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND WIND COULD IMPACT THE AREA.
REGARDLESS...IT FINALLY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH COLDER PERIOD OF TEMPS
WOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE STATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST...FAVORING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
INCLUDING KSRR...THE KROW AREA AND KCVS THROUGH AROUND 08Z TO 09Z.
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN...SOME SPOT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON AS HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE EAST BUT CIGS OF BKN-OVC030-040 EXTEND OVER THE SAN JUAN AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL IMPACT
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO...INCLUDING KGUP AND POSSIBLY
KFMN...THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR AND LOCAL LIFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES. AS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL...FROM KCAO TO KTCC
AND KCVS. NOT CONVINCED THAT THE PECOS VALLEY WILL BE IMPACTED
THUS ONLY CARRYING SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS AT KROW. BY MID DAY...LOOK
FOR NORTHWEST FLOW TO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR WITH CLEARING BY
LATE MORNING TO MID DAY MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO ERODE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHWEST.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  40  21  45  23 /   0   0   0   5
DULCE...........................  35   9  41  14 /   0   0   5   5
CUBA............................  34   9  42  15 /   0   0   5   5
GALLUP..........................  39  16  45  19 /   0   0   0   5
EL MORRO........................  35  14  40  18 /   0   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  38  12  45  16 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  37  20  38  23 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  49  27  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  32   8  43  12 /   5   0   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  37  23  37  24 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  37  21  41  23 /   5   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  32   9  37  12 /   5   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  28  12  35  14 /   5   5   0   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  32   1  40   6 /   5   5   0   5
TAOS............................  34  11  40  14 /   5   0   0   0
MORA............................  38  19  45  21 /   5   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  40  20  42  22 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  35  24  38  25 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  39  19  44  22 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  41  29  43  29 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  43  24  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  44  24  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  43  24  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  45  18  46  21 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  42  25  46  27 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  48  23  51  26 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  38  24  41  25 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  40  25  44  27 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  42  18  45  21 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  38  20  44  23 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  42  23  44  26 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  46  23  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  43  22  47  26 /   5   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  39  19  41  21 /   5   5   0   0
RATON...........................  42  16  50  18 /   5   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  46  18  51  20 /   5   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  43  18  51  21 /   5   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  46  25  53  25 /   5   5   0   0
ROY.............................  46  21  50  23 /   5   5   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  49  26  51  27 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  50  26  53  28 /   5   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  49  23  55  23 /   5   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  50  25  55  25 /   5   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  52  26  56  26 /   5   5   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  52  27  53  28 /   5   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  56  26  58  27 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  51  27  55  30 /   5   0   0   0
ELK.............................  49  25  53  30 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS65 KABQ 191030
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 11 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS PEAKING AROUND 3 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD SPAWN
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FALL AREAWIDE ON
TUESDAY...ONLY TO REBOUND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. SOME COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN CHRISTMAS AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG ARE A BIT OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING...SINCE MUCH OF THE EXPECTED FOG HAS YET TO
DEVELOP. SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD FAVOR
LOCATIONS WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND OR THAT HAVE WET GROUND
FROM OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL LIKE THE NW DUE TO SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM WEATHER SYSTEMS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG NEW MEXICOS EASTERN BORDER AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY EXITS EASTWARD FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE NOSE OF A POLAR JET STREAK MOVES OVER THE AREA. SPEEDS
SHOULD PEAK MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH FROM
CLINES CORNERS TO THE CAPITAN MOUNTAINS.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DONT MAKE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
CLIP NE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OUT TO BE TOO WELL ORGANIZED
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD.

THERE IS NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN COMPUTER MODELS ON THE POTENTIAL
STORM FOR CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A CLOSED UPPER LOW SAGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...BUT THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS DEMONSTRATED A
TENDENCY SO FAR THIS COOL SEASON TO OVERPLAY THE DEPTH OF STORM
SYSTEMS BEYOND DAY 5 OF THE FORECAST...SO WE ARE TAKING ITS WET
AND WINTRY SOLUTION WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
POOR VENTILATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WINDS BEGINNING
SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

CURRENTLY...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE REGION WITH MOIST SOILS STILL IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAIN/SNOW.
A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM WILL FAVOR LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES. A WEAK
UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS SUNDAY BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH POOR
VENT RATES AGAIN. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR LATE
DECEMBER NORMALS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN CARVING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
AND INCREASE WINDS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RIDGE TOP WINDS
WILL INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MIXING AND VENTILATION. TEMPS AGAIN WILL
STAY ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE NORTHWEST FLOW...AND OVERALL HUMIDITIIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 PCT IN THE EAST. THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN EVEN
MORE BY MONDAY AND SAG SOUTH...CREATING WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE
TO EXCELLENT JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN MTS AND THE FAR NORTHEAST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY.

FINALLY BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION...TRENDING TEMPS 5 TO 15F COOLER. VENT RATES ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO DETERIORATE BEHIND THIS AIRMASS WITH LIGHT
WINDS MOVING IN ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND TUESDAY HAS FLUCTUATED
WIDELY WITH A POTENTIAL STRONG STORM SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH CHRISTMAS. AT THIS TIME THE
TREND IS FOR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH MUCH DRIER AND
COLDER AIR AROUND CHRISTMAS. IF THE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS FARTHER
SOUTH THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND WIND COULD IMPACT THE AREA.
REGARDLESS...IT FINALLY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH COLDER PERIOD OF TEMPS
WOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE STATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST...FAVORING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
INCLUDING KSRR...THE KROW AREA AND KCVS THROUGH AROUND 08Z TO 09Z.
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN...SOME SPOT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON AS HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE EAST BUT CIGS OF BKN-OVC030-040 EXTEND OVER THE SAN JUAN AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL IMPACT
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO...INCLUDING KGUP AND POSSIBLY
KFMN...THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR AND LOCAL LIFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES. AS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL...FROM KCAO TO KTCC
AND KCVS. NOT CONVINCED THAT THE PECOS VALLEY WILL BE IMPACTED
THUS ONLY CARRYING SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS AT KROW. BY MID DAY...LOOK
FOR NORTHWEST FLOW TO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR WITH CLEARING BY
LATE MORNING TO MID DAY MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO ERODE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHWEST.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  40  21  45  23 /   0   0   0   5
DULCE...........................  35   9  41  14 /   0   0   5   5
CUBA............................  34   9  42  15 /   0   0   5   5
GALLUP..........................  39  16  45  19 /   0   0   0   5
EL MORRO........................  35  14  40  18 /   0   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  38  12  45  16 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  37  20  38  23 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  49  27  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  32   8  43  12 /   5   0   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  37  23  37  24 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  37  21  41  23 /   5   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  32   9  37  12 /   5   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  28  12  35  14 /   5   5   0   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  32   1  40   6 /   5   5   0   5
TAOS............................  34  11  40  14 /   5   0   0   0
MORA............................  38  19  45  21 /   5   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  40  20  42  22 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  35  24  38  25 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  39  19  44  22 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  41  29  43  29 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  43  24  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  44  24  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  43  24  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  45  18  46  21 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  42  25  46  27 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  48  23  51  26 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  38  24  41  25 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  40  25  44  27 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  42  18  45  21 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  38  20  44  23 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  42  23  44  26 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  46  23  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  43  22  47  26 /   5   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  39  19  41  21 /   5   5   0   0
RATON...........................  42  16  50  18 /   5   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  46  18  51  20 /   5   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  43  18  51  21 /   5   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  46  25  53  25 /   5   5   0   0
ROY.............................  46  21  50  23 /   5   5   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  49  26  51  27 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  50  26  53  28 /   5   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  49  23  55  23 /   5   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  50  25  55  25 /   5   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  52  26  56  26 /   5   5   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  52  27  53  28 /   5   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  56  26  58  27 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  51  27  55  30 /   5   0   0   0
ELK.............................  49  25  53  30 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS65 KABQ 191030
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AFTER ANOTHER COOL DAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 11 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL TODAY...READINGS WILL REBOUND THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WITH HIGHS PEAKING AROUND 3 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL ON MONDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD SPAWN
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS SUNDAY...THEN
ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AS WELL MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT. TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE FRONT WILL FALL AREAWIDE ON
TUESDAY...ONLY TO REBOUND AGAIN WEDNESDAY. SOME COMPUTER MODELS
SUGGEST A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG AND WEST
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN CHRISTMAS AND CHRISTMAS NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
LOCATIONS OF PATCHY FOG AND FREEZING FOG ARE A BIT OF A FORECAST
CHALLENGE THIS MORNING...SINCE MUCH OF THE EXPECTED FOG HAS YET TO
DEVELOP. SIGNIFICANT VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS SHOULD FAVOR
LOCATIONS WITH FRESH SNOW ON THE GROUND OR THAT HAVE WET GROUND
FROM OVERNIGHT PRECIPITATION. MODELS STILL LIKE THE NW DUE TO SOME
MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER FROM WEATHER SYSTEMS
EARLIER IN THE WEEK. ALSO...SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS FOG AND LOW
CLOUDS DEVELOPING ALONG NEW MEXICOS EASTERN BORDER AS AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH GRADUALLY EXITS EASTWARD FROM THE TX/OK PANHANDLES.

NORTHWEST WINDS WILL BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ALONG AND JUST EAST OF
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUNDAY AND
MONDAY AS THE NOSE OF A POLAR JET STREAK MOVES OVER THE AREA. SPEEDS
SHOULD PEAK MONDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR GUSTS TO 50 MPH FROM
CLINES CORNERS TO THE CAPITAN MOUNTAINS.

THE LATEST MODEL RUNS DONT MAKE THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL
CLIP NE PARTS OF THE FORECAST AREA OUT TO BE TOO WELL ORGANIZED
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE UPPER GREAT PLAINS
THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE DRIFTING EASTWARD.

THERE IS NOT MUCH AGREEMENT IN COMPUTER MODELS ON THE POTENTIAL
STORM FOR CHRISTMAS. THE ECMWF DEPICTS A CLOSED UPPER LOW SAGGING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...BUT THE GFS MAINTAINS A
MORE PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH. THE ECMWF HAS DEMONSTRATED A
TENDENCY SO FAR THIS COOL SEASON TO OVERPLAY THE DEPTH OF STORM
SYSTEMS BEYOND DAY 5 OF THE FORECAST...SO WE ARE TAKING ITS WET
AND WINTRY SOLUTION WITH A GRAIN OF SALT.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
POOR VENTILATION THROUGH SATURDAY WILL BE THE MAIN FIRE WEATHER
CONCERN IN THE NEAR-TERM...FOLLOWED BY STRONGER WINDS BEGINNING
SUNDAY...AND ESPECIALLY MONDAY.

CURRENTLY...LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG HAVE REDEVELOPED OVER PORTIONS
OF THE REGION WITH MOIST SOILS STILL IN PLACE FROM RECENT RAIN/SNOW.
A WEAK RIDGE DEVELOPING OVER THE AREA TODAY BEHIND A DEPARTING STORM
SYSTEM WILL FAVOR LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES. A WEAK
UPPER WAVE WILL CROSS SUNDAY BUT WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT WITH POOR
VENT RATES AGAIN. TEMPS WILL BE WARMER SUNDAY WITH HIGHS NEAR LATE
DECEMBER NORMALS. LOW TEMPS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

AN UPPER TROUGH WILL BEGIN CARVING OUT OVER THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
AND INCREASE WINDS ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. RIDGE TOP WINDS
WILL INCREASE EARLY SUNDAY THEN SPREAD ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS DURING
THE DAY. THIS WILL INCREASE MIXING AND VENTILATION. TEMPS AGAIN WILL
STAY ABOVE NORMAL DESPITE NORTHWEST FLOW...AND OVERALL HUMIDITIIES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE 25 PCT IN THE EAST. THE TROUGH WILL SHARPEN EVEN
MORE BY MONDAY AND SAG SOUTH...CREATING WIDESPREAD WINDY CONDITIONS
IN THE HIGH TERRAIN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE
TO EXCELLENT JUST ABOUT ALL AREAS. SOME LIGHT SNOW MAY DEVELOP OVER
THE NORTHERN MTS AND THE FAR NORTHEAST...HOWEVER CONFIDENCE ON THE
AMOUNT OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS STILL IN QUESTION. TEMPS WILL STILL
BE ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS MONDAY.

FINALLY BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY COLDER AIR ADVECTS SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE REGION...TRENDING TEMPS 5 TO 15F COOLER. VENT RATES ARE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN TO DETERIORATE BEHIND THIS AIRMASS WITH LIGHT
WINDS MOVING IN ALOFT. MODEL GUIDANCE BEYOND TUESDAY HAS FLUCTUATED
WIDELY WITH A POTENTIAL STRONG STORM SYSTEM SHIFTING ACROSS THE
CENTRAL OR SOUTHERN ROCKIES THROUGH CHRISTMAS. AT THIS TIME THE
TREND IS FOR VERY WINDY CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP WITH MUCH DRIER AND
COLDER AIR AROUND CHRISTMAS. IF THE STORM SYSTEM DEVELOPS FARTHER
SOUTH THEN MORE SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND WIND COULD IMPACT THE AREA.
REGARDLESS...IT FINALLY LOOKS LIKE A MUCH COLDER PERIOD OF TEMPS
WOULD AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST NEXT WEEKEND.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE STATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST...FAVORING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
INCLUDING KSRR...THE KROW AREA AND KCVS THROUGH AROUND 08Z TO 09Z.
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN...SOME SPOT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON AS HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE EAST BUT CIGS OF BKN-OVC030-040 EXTEND OVER THE SAN JUAN AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL IMPACT
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO...INCLUDING KGUP AND POSSIBLY
KFMN...THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR AND LOCAL LIFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES. AS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL...FROM KCAO TO KTCC
AND KCVS. NOT CONVINCED THAT THE PECOS VALLEY WILL BE IMPACTED
THUS ONLY CARRYING SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS AT KROW. BY MID DAY...LOOK
FOR NORTHWEST FLOW TO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR WITH CLEARING BY
LATE MORNING TO MID DAY MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO ERODE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHWEST.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  40  21  45  23 /   0   0   0   5
DULCE...........................  35   9  41  14 /   0   0   5   5
CUBA............................  34   9  42  15 /   0   0   5   5
GALLUP..........................  39  16  45  19 /   0   0   0   5
EL MORRO........................  35  14  40  18 /   0   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  38  12  45  16 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  37  20  38  23 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  49  27  56  27 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  32   8  43  12 /   5   0   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  37  23  37  24 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  37  21  41  23 /   5   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  32   9  37  12 /   5   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  28  12  35  14 /   5   5   0   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  32   1  40   6 /   5   5   0   5
TAOS............................  34  11  40  14 /   5   0   0   0
MORA............................  38  19  45  21 /   5   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  40  20  42  22 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  35  24  38  25 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  39  19  44  22 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  41  29  43  29 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  43  24  48  27 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  44  24  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  43  24  46  26 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  45  18  46  21 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  42  25  46  27 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  48  23  51  26 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  38  24  41  25 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  40  25  44  27 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  42  18  45  21 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  38  20  44  23 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  42  23  44  26 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  46  23  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  43  22  47  26 /   5   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  39  19  41  21 /   5   5   0   0
RATON...........................  42  16  50  18 /   5   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  46  18  51  20 /   5   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  43  18  51  21 /   5   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  46  25  53  25 /   5   5   0   0
ROY.............................  46  21  50  23 /   5   5   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  49  26  51  27 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  50  26  53  28 /   5   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  49  23  55  23 /   5   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  50  25  55  25 /   5   5   0   0
PORTALES........................  52  26  56  26 /   5   5   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  52  27  53  28 /   5   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  56  26  58  27 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  51  27  55  30 /   5   0   0   0
ELK.............................  49  25  53  30 /   5   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS65 KABQ 190601 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1101 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE STATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST...FAVORING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
INCLUDING KSRR...THE KROW AREA AND KCVS THROUGH AROUND 08Z TO 09Z.
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN...SOME SPOT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON AS HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE EAST BUT CIGS OF BKN-OVC030-040 EXTEND OVER THE SAN JUAN AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL IMPACT
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO...INCLUDING KGUP AND POSSIBLY
KFMN...THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR AND LOCAL LIFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES. AS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL...FROM KCAO TO KTCC
AND KCVS. NOT CONVINCED THAT THE PECOS VALLEY WILL BE IMPACTED
THUS ONLY CARRYING SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS AT KROW. BY MID DAY...LOOK
FOR NORTHWEST FLOW TO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR WITH CLEARING BY
LATE MORNING TO MID DAY MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO ERODE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHWEST.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AND INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS SPREADING A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
ALSO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 IN CATRON...SOCORRO...LINCOLN...AND CHAVES COUNTIES.
A FEW INCHES OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH RAIN
MIXING BELOW 6500 TO 7500 FEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR OUT ON
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES OVER
TODAY`S READINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A FEW NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP SUNDAY AS STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INUNDATE THE STATE. PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER YESTERDAY`S ONE-TWO PUNCH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...THE NEXT
IS CURRENTLY EXITING AZ AND ENTERING NM. SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR THE AXIS WHERE SUFFICIENT
COOLING ALOFT RESIDES. THIS TRANSIENT FEATURE WILL SPREAD MORE
SHOWERS AND BRIEFLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ABOVE 7500 FEET...PERHAPS A LOCALIZED SPOT
ON SIERRA BLANCA OF 4-5 INCHES. AFTER COORDINATION WITH EL PASO
OFFICE...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY ISSUANCE DUE TO
MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED IN POPULATED AREAS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
LINCOLN AND CATRON COUNTIES. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM COULD STEER
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
OTHER CONCERNS WILL BE FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. UNCERTAINTY IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT FOR
MANY CENTRAL AREAS...BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS AND THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO THE SAN JUAN BASIN.

FOR FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO IN THE WAKE
OF THIS EVENING`S DEPARTING TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REBOUND ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING. LIGHT BREEZES WILL KEEP THINGS TRANQUIL WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST.

INTO SATURDAY ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND OFF OF THE
PACIFIC AND EVENTUALLY OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A
MORE NORTHERN ORIGIN THAN THIS EVENING`S SYSTEM...MAKING IT VOID
OF ANY SUBTROPICAL TAP. THIS WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM MUCH DRIER WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE
TOO WEAK FOR ANY STRONG SURFACE WINDS...AND NO SUPPORTIVE LEE SIDE
CYCLONE WILL BE AT WORK EITHER.

BY SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO A STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT...ONE THAT WILL LIKELY STAY IN TACT FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL
DAYS...HOSTING MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS THAT MODELS WILL NO DOUBT
HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING. THE STRONGER GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE
COMPLEMENTED WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS TO BE BUFFETED WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS AND LESSER...BUT STILL BREEZY...SPEEDS IN THE
SURROUNDING AREAS. THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW COULD INITIATE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS...AND
HAVE DECIDED TO HEDGE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR POPS IN THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IN ADDITION
TO THE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND NORTHERN
SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE OR
OCCASIONALLY BELOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PROGRESSIVE STORM TRACK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL DELIVER
ONE MORE ROUND OF MODERATELY ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE A TRANSITION TO LESS ACTIVE/DRIER PATTERN
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING INTO FAR WC/SW NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT FOCUSING THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF DISTRICTS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS EXTENDING EAST TO THE GALLINAS RANGE WHERE ACCUMULATING
SNOW LIKELY NEAR AND ABOVE 6500 FEET.  THE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
AND BETTER CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
OUR FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA.

TONIGHT/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BEFORE
DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH A DRIER/MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
FOLLOWING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL TOP THOSE TODAY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND COMBINED WITH DRIER
AND MORE SEASONABLE DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER
MIN RH/S FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS AS COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY
MOIST CONDITIONS TODAY. VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE
POOR SIDE FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES WHERE DEVELOPING NWLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL HELP TO IMPROVE MIXING THERE.  DOWNWARD
TREND IN VENT RATES FOR SATURDAY.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN COMING IN LINE WITH A GENERAL BAGGY
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY THAT
GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES AS IT SLIDES EAST INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY. LOOKING
QUIET/DRY ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER NC/NW AREAS BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASED
WINDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEYOND SUNDAY... A STRENGTHENING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT APPEARS MOST LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
MAINTAINING SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THE FAR NORTH.  OTHERWISE...
EXPECT DECENT VENTILATION RATES AND PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE...CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY.
EMPHASIS ON PROGRESSIVE...AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN INDICATED OVER
WESTERN CONUS INTO THE EAST PACIFIC DOES NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT FOR OUR REGION NEXT WEEK.  KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 190601 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1101 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE STATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST...FAVORING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
INCLUDING KSRR...THE KROW AREA AND KCVS THROUGH AROUND 08Z TO 09Z.
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN...SOME SPOT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON AS HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE EAST BUT CIGS OF BKN-OVC030-040 EXTEND OVER THE SAN JUAN AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL IMPACT
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO...INCLUDING KGUP AND POSSIBLY
KFMN...THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR AND LOCAL LIFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES. AS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL...FROM KCAO TO KTCC
AND KCVS. NOT CONVINCED THAT THE PECOS VALLEY WILL BE IMPACTED
THUS ONLY CARRYING SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS AT KROW. BY MID DAY...LOOK
FOR NORTHWEST FLOW TO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR WITH CLEARING BY
LATE MORNING TO MID DAY MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO ERODE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHWEST.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AND INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS SPREADING A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
ALSO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 IN CATRON...SOCORRO...LINCOLN...AND CHAVES COUNTIES.
A FEW INCHES OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH RAIN
MIXING BELOW 6500 TO 7500 FEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR OUT ON
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES OVER
TODAY`S READINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A FEW NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP SUNDAY AS STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INUNDATE THE STATE. PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER YESTERDAY`S ONE-TWO PUNCH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...THE NEXT
IS CURRENTLY EXITING AZ AND ENTERING NM. SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR THE AXIS WHERE SUFFICIENT
COOLING ALOFT RESIDES. THIS TRANSIENT FEATURE WILL SPREAD MORE
SHOWERS AND BRIEFLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ABOVE 7500 FEET...PERHAPS A LOCALIZED SPOT
ON SIERRA BLANCA OF 4-5 INCHES. AFTER COORDINATION WITH EL PASO
OFFICE...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY ISSUANCE DUE TO
MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED IN POPULATED AREAS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
LINCOLN AND CATRON COUNTIES. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM COULD STEER
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
OTHER CONCERNS WILL BE FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. UNCERTAINTY IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT FOR
MANY CENTRAL AREAS...BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS AND THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO THE SAN JUAN BASIN.

FOR FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO IN THE WAKE
OF THIS EVENING`S DEPARTING TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REBOUND ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING. LIGHT BREEZES WILL KEEP THINGS TRANQUIL WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST.

INTO SATURDAY ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND OFF OF THE
PACIFIC AND EVENTUALLY OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A
MORE NORTHERN ORIGIN THAN THIS EVENING`S SYSTEM...MAKING IT VOID
OF ANY SUBTROPICAL TAP. THIS WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM MUCH DRIER WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE
TOO WEAK FOR ANY STRONG SURFACE WINDS...AND NO SUPPORTIVE LEE SIDE
CYCLONE WILL BE AT WORK EITHER.

BY SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO A STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT...ONE THAT WILL LIKELY STAY IN TACT FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL
DAYS...HOSTING MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS THAT MODELS WILL NO DOUBT
HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING. THE STRONGER GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE
COMPLEMENTED WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS TO BE BUFFETED WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS AND LESSER...BUT STILL BREEZY...SPEEDS IN THE
SURROUNDING AREAS. THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW COULD INITIATE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS...AND
HAVE DECIDED TO HEDGE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR POPS IN THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IN ADDITION
TO THE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND NORTHERN
SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE OR
OCCASIONALLY BELOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PROGRESSIVE STORM TRACK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL DELIVER
ONE MORE ROUND OF MODERATELY ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE A TRANSITION TO LESS ACTIVE/DRIER PATTERN
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING INTO FAR WC/SW NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT FOCUSING THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF DISTRICTS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS EXTENDING EAST TO THE GALLINAS RANGE WHERE ACCUMULATING
SNOW LIKELY NEAR AND ABOVE 6500 FEET.  THE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
AND BETTER CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
OUR FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA.

TONIGHT/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BEFORE
DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH A DRIER/MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
FOLLOWING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL TOP THOSE TODAY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND COMBINED WITH DRIER
AND MORE SEASONABLE DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER
MIN RH/S FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS AS COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY
MOIST CONDITIONS TODAY. VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE
POOR SIDE FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES WHERE DEVELOPING NWLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL HELP TO IMPROVE MIXING THERE.  DOWNWARD
TREND IN VENT RATES FOR SATURDAY.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN COMING IN LINE WITH A GENERAL BAGGY
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY THAT
GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES AS IT SLIDES EAST INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY. LOOKING
QUIET/DRY ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER NC/NW AREAS BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASED
WINDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEYOND SUNDAY... A STRENGTHENING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT APPEARS MOST LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
MAINTAINING SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THE FAR NORTH.  OTHERWISE...
EXPECT DECENT VENTILATION RATES AND PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE...CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY.
EMPHASIS ON PROGRESSIVE...AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN INDICATED OVER
WESTERN CONUS INTO THE EAST PACIFIC DOES NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT FOR OUR REGION NEXT WEEK.  KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 190601 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1101 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE STATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST...FAVORING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
INCLUDING KSRR...THE KROW AREA AND KCVS THROUGH AROUND 08Z TO 09Z.
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN...SOME SPOT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON AS HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE EAST BUT CIGS OF BKN-OVC030-040 EXTEND OVER THE SAN JUAN AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL IMPACT
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO...INCLUDING KGUP AND POSSIBLY
KFMN...THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR AND LOCAL LIFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES. AS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL...FROM KCAO TO KTCC
AND KCVS. NOT CONVINCED THAT THE PECOS VALLEY WILL BE IMPACTED
THUS ONLY CARRYING SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS AT KROW. BY MID DAY...LOOK
FOR NORTHWEST FLOW TO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR WITH CLEARING BY
LATE MORNING TO MID DAY MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO ERODE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHWEST.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AND INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS SPREADING A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
ALSO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 IN CATRON...SOCORRO...LINCOLN...AND CHAVES COUNTIES.
A FEW INCHES OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH RAIN
MIXING BELOW 6500 TO 7500 FEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR OUT ON
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES OVER
TODAY`S READINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A FEW NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP SUNDAY AS STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INUNDATE THE STATE. PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER YESTERDAY`S ONE-TWO PUNCH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...THE NEXT
IS CURRENTLY EXITING AZ AND ENTERING NM. SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR THE AXIS WHERE SUFFICIENT
COOLING ALOFT RESIDES. THIS TRANSIENT FEATURE WILL SPREAD MORE
SHOWERS AND BRIEFLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ABOVE 7500 FEET...PERHAPS A LOCALIZED SPOT
ON SIERRA BLANCA OF 4-5 INCHES. AFTER COORDINATION WITH EL PASO
OFFICE...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY ISSUANCE DUE TO
MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED IN POPULATED AREAS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
LINCOLN AND CATRON COUNTIES. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM COULD STEER
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
OTHER CONCERNS WILL BE FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. UNCERTAINTY IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT FOR
MANY CENTRAL AREAS...BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS AND THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO THE SAN JUAN BASIN.

FOR FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO IN THE WAKE
OF THIS EVENING`S DEPARTING TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REBOUND ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING. LIGHT BREEZES WILL KEEP THINGS TRANQUIL WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST.

INTO SATURDAY ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND OFF OF THE
PACIFIC AND EVENTUALLY OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A
MORE NORTHERN ORIGIN THAN THIS EVENING`S SYSTEM...MAKING IT VOID
OF ANY SUBTROPICAL TAP. THIS WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM MUCH DRIER WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE
TOO WEAK FOR ANY STRONG SURFACE WINDS...AND NO SUPPORTIVE LEE SIDE
CYCLONE WILL BE AT WORK EITHER.

BY SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO A STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT...ONE THAT WILL LIKELY STAY IN TACT FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL
DAYS...HOSTING MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS THAT MODELS WILL NO DOUBT
HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING. THE STRONGER GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE
COMPLEMENTED WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS TO BE BUFFETED WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS AND LESSER...BUT STILL BREEZY...SPEEDS IN THE
SURROUNDING AREAS. THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW COULD INITIATE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS...AND
HAVE DECIDED TO HEDGE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR POPS IN THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IN ADDITION
TO THE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND NORTHERN
SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE OR
OCCASIONALLY BELOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PROGRESSIVE STORM TRACK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL DELIVER
ONE MORE ROUND OF MODERATELY ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE A TRANSITION TO LESS ACTIVE/DRIER PATTERN
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING INTO FAR WC/SW NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT FOCUSING THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF DISTRICTS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS EXTENDING EAST TO THE GALLINAS RANGE WHERE ACCUMULATING
SNOW LIKELY NEAR AND ABOVE 6500 FEET.  THE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
AND BETTER CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
OUR FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA.

TONIGHT/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BEFORE
DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH A DRIER/MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
FOLLOWING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL TOP THOSE TODAY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND COMBINED WITH DRIER
AND MORE SEASONABLE DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER
MIN RH/S FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS AS COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY
MOIST CONDITIONS TODAY. VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE
POOR SIDE FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES WHERE DEVELOPING NWLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL HELP TO IMPROVE MIXING THERE.  DOWNWARD
TREND IN VENT RATES FOR SATURDAY.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN COMING IN LINE WITH A GENERAL BAGGY
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY THAT
GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES AS IT SLIDES EAST INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY. LOOKING
QUIET/DRY ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER NC/NW AREAS BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASED
WINDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEYOND SUNDAY... A STRENGTHENING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT APPEARS MOST LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
MAINTAINING SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THE FAR NORTH.  OTHERWISE...
EXPECT DECENT VENTILATION RATES AND PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE...CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY.
EMPHASIS ON PROGRESSIVE...AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN INDICATED OVER
WESTERN CONUS INTO THE EAST PACIFIC DOES NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT FOR OUR REGION NEXT WEEK.  KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 190601 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1101 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST OF THE STATE DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS
MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST...FAVORING THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
INCLUDING KSRR...THE KROW AREA AND KCVS THROUGH AROUND 08Z TO 09Z.
ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN...SOME SPOT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE BUT MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON AS HIGH CLOUDS
MOVE EAST BUT CIGS OF BKN-OVC030-040 EXTEND OVER THE SAN JUAN AND
SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG WILL IMPACT
PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO...INCLUDING KGUP AND POSSIBLY
KFMN...THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH MVFR/IFR AND LOCAL LIFR CIGS
AND VISIBILITIES. AS AREA OF LOW CLOUDS AND SOME FOG WILL LIKELY
MOVE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT AS WELL...FROM KCAO TO KTCC
AND KCVS. NOT CONVINCED THAT THE PECOS VALLEY WILL BE IMPACTED
THUS ONLY CARRYING SOME SCT LOW CLOUDS AT KROW. BY MID DAY...LOOK
FOR NORTHWEST FLOW TO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR WITH CLEARING BY
LATE MORNING TO MID DAY MOST LOCATIONS...THOUGH LOW CLOUDS WILL BE
SLOW TO ERODE EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHWEST.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AND INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS SPREADING A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
ALSO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 IN CATRON...SOCORRO...LINCOLN...AND CHAVES COUNTIES.
A FEW INCHES OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH RAIN
MIXING BELOW 6500 TO 7500 FEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR OUT ON
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES OVER
TODAY`S READINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A FEW NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP SUNDAY AS STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INUNDATE THE STATE. PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER YESTERDAY`S ONE-TWO PUNCH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...THE NEXT
IS CURRENTLY EXITING AZ AND ENTERING NM. SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR THE AXIS WHERE SUFFICIENT
COOLING ALOFT RESIDES. THIS TRANSIENT FEATURE WILL SPREAD MORE
SHOWERS AND BRIEFLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ABOVE 7500 FEET...PERHAPS A LOCALIZED SPOT
ON SIERRA BLANCA OF 4-5 INCHES. AFTER COORDINATION WITH EL PASO
OFFICE...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY ISSUANCE DUE TO
MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED IN POPULATED AREAS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
LINCOLN AND CATRON COUNTIES. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM COULD STEER
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
OTHER CONCERNS WILL BE FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. UNCERTAINTY IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT FOR
MANY CENTRAL AREAS...BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS AND THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO THE SAN JUAN BASIN.

FOR FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO IN THE WAKE
OF THIS EVENING`S DEPARTING TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REBOUND ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING. LIGHT BREEZES WILL KEEP THINGS TRANQUIL WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST.

INTO SATURDAY ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND OFF OF THE
PACIFIC AND EVENTUALLY OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A
MORE NORTHERN ORIGIN THAN THIS EVENING`S SYSTEM...MAKING IT VOID
OF ANY SUBTROPICAL TAP. THIS WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM MUCH DRIER WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE
TOO WEAK FOR ANY STRONG SURFACE WINDS...AND NO SUPPORTIVE LEE SIDE
CYCLONE WILL BE AT WORK EITHER.

BY SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO A STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT...ONE THAT WILL LIKELY STAY IN TACT FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL
DAYS...HOSTING MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS THAT MODELS WILL NO DOUBT
HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING. THE STRONGER GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE
COMPLEMENTED WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS TO BE BUFFETED WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS AND LESSER...BUT STILL BREEZY...SPEEDS IN THE
SURROUNDING AREAS. THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW COULD INITIATE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS...AND
HAVE DECIDED TO HEDGE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR POPS IN THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IN ADDITION
TO THE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND NORTHERN
SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE OR
OCCASIONALLY BELOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PROGRESSIVE STORM TRACK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL DELIVER
ONE MORE ROUND OF MODERATELY ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE A TRANSITION TO LESS ACTIVE/DRIER PATTERN
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING INTO FAR WC/SW NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT FOCUSING THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF DISTRICTS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS EXTENDING EAST TO THE GALLINAS RANGE WHERE ACCUMULATING
SNOW LIKELY NEAR AND ABOVE 6500 FEET.  THE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
AND BETTER CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
OUR FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA.

TONIGHT/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BEFORE
DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH A DRIER/MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
FOLLOWING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL TOP THOSE TODAY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND COMBINED WITH DRIER
AND MORE SEASONABLE DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER
MIN RH/S FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS AS COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY
MOIST CONDITIONS TODAY. VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE
POOR SIDE FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES WHERE DEVELOPING NWLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL HELP TO IMPROVE MIXING THERE.  DOWNWARD
TREND IN VENT RATES FOR SATURDAY.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN COMING IN LINE WITH A GENERAL BAGGY
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY THAT
GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES AS IT SLIDES EAST INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY. LOOKING
QUIET/DRY ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER NC/NW AREAS BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASED
WINDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEYOND SUNDAY... A STRENGTHENING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT APPEARS MOST LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
MAINTAINING SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THE FAR NORTH.  OTHERWISE...
EXPECT DECENT VENTILATION RATES AND PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE...CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY.
EMPHASIS ON PROGRESSIVE...AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN INDICATED OVER
WESTERN CONUS INTO THE EAST PACIFIC DOES NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT FOR OUR REGION NEXT WEEK.  KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 190002
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
502 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CROSSING NEW MEXICO AT THIS TIME...WITH
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST GENERALLY ALONG AND
SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40...AND FAVORING THE AREA FROM THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY...THE SOUTH CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS INCLUDING
KOMN...KSRR AND KROW THROUGH AROUND 06Z TO 08Z. SOME LIGHT SNOW
WITH FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE FROM KGUP TO KGNT THROUGH AROUND 03Z.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WITH MID LEVEL CEILINGS TO CONTINUE AS
WELL...WITH WEST TO EAST CLEARING AFTER 06Z. AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG WITH MVFR/IFR AND LOCAL LIFR CIGS AND VISIBILITIES ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE NORTHWEST IMPACTING KFMN
AND KGUP...AS WELL AS THE SOUTHEAST TO EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
INCLUDING KROW...KCVS AND KTCC...THOUGH CURRENTLY ONLY CARRYING
SCT LOW CLOUDS AT KROW. IN THE WAKE OF THE TROUGH...LOOK FOR
NORTHWEST FLOW TO USHER IN MUCH DRIER AIR WITH CLEARING BY LATE
MORNING TO MID DAY.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...326 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AND INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS SPREADING A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
ALSO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 IN CATRON...SOCORRO...LINCOLN...AND CHAVES COUNTIES.
A FEW INCHES OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH RAIN
MIXING BELOW 6500 TO 7500 FEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR OUT ON
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES OVER
TODAY`S READINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A FEW NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP SUNDAY AS STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INUNDATE THE STATE. PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER YESTERDAY`S ONE-TWO PUNCH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...THE NEXT
IS CURRENTLY EXITING AZ AND ENTERING NM. SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR THE AXIS WHERE SUFFICIENT
COOLING ALOFT RESIDES. THIS TRANSIENT FEATURE WILL SPREAD MORE
SHOWERS AND BRIEFLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ABOVE 7500 FEET...PERHAPS A LOCALIZED SPOT
ON SIERRA BLANCA OF 4-5 INCHES. AFTER COORDINATION WITH EL PASO
OFFICE...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY ISSUANCE DUE TO
MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED IN POPULATED AREAS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
LINCOLN AND CATRON COUNTIES. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM COULD STEER
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
OTHER CONCERNS WILL BE FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. UNCERTAINTY IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT FOR
MANY CENTRAL AREAS...BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS AND THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO THE SAN JUAN BASIN.

FOR FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO IN THE WAKE
OF THIS EVENING`S DEPARTING TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REBOUND ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING. LIGHT BREEZES WILL KEEP THINGS TRANQUIL WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST.

INTO SATURDAY ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND OFF OF THE
PACIFIC AND EVENTUALLY OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A
MORE NORTHERN ORIGIN THAN THIS EVENING`S SYSTEM...MAKING IT VOID
OF ANY SUBTROPICAL TAP. THIS WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM MUCH DRIER WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE
TOO WEAK FOR ANY STRONG SURFACE WINDS...AND NO SUPPORTIVE LEE SIDE
CYCLONE WILL BE AT WORK EITHER.

BY SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO A STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT...ONE THAT WILL LIKELY STAY IN TACT FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL
DAYS...HOSTING MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS THAT MODELS WILL NO DOUBT
HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING. THE STRONGER GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE
COMPLEMENTED WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS TO BE BUFFETED WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS AND LESSER...BUT STILL BREEZY...SPEEDS IN THE
SURROUNDING AREAS. THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW COULD INITIATE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS...AND
HAVE DECIDED TO HEDGE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR POPS IN THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IN ADDITION
TO THE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND NORTHERN
SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE OR
OCCASIONALLY BELOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PROGRESSIVE STORM TRACK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL DELIVER
ONE MORE ROUND OF MODERATELY ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE A TRANSITION TO LESS ACTIVE/DRIER PATTERN
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING INTO FAR WC/SW NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT FOCUSING THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF DISTRICTS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS EXTENDING EAST TO THE GALLINAS RANGE WHERE ACCUMULATING
SNOW LIKELY NEAR AND ABOVE 6500 FEET.  THE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
AND BETTER CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
OUR FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA.

TONIGHT/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BEFORE
DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH A DRIER/MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
FOLLOWING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL TOP THOSE TODAY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND COMBINED WITH DRIER
AND MORE SEASONABLE DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER
MIN RH/S FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS AS COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY
MOIST CONDITIONS TODAY. VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE
POOR SIDE FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES WHERE DEVELOPING NWLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL HELP TO IMPROVE MIXING THERE.  DOWNWARD
TREND IN VENT RATES FOR SATURDAY.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN COMING IN LINE WITH A GENERAL BAGGY
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY THAT
GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES AS IT SLIDES EAST INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY. LOOKING
QUIET/DRY ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER NC/NW AREAS BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASED
WINDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEYOND SUNDAY... A STRENGTHENING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT APPEARS MOST LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
MAINTAINING SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THE FAR NORTH.  OTHERWISE...
EXPECT DECENT VENTILATION RATES AND PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE...CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY.
EMPHASIS ON PROGRESSIVE...AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN INDICATED OVER
WESTERN CONUS INTO THE EAST PACIFIC DOES NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT FOR OUR REGION NEXT WEEK.  KJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 182226
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
326 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AND INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS SPREADING A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
ALSO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 IN CATRON...SOCORRO...LINCOLN...AND CHAVES COUNTIES.
A FEW INCHES OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH RAIN
MIXING BELOW 6500 TO 7500 FEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR OUT ON
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES OVER
TODAY`S READINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A FEW NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP SUNDAY AS STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INUNDATE THE STATE. PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER YESTERDAY`S ONE-TWO PUNCH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...THE NEXT
IS CURRENTLY EXITING AZ AND ENTERING NM. SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR THE AXIS WHERE SUFFICIENT
COOLING ALOFT RESIDES. THIS TRANSIENT FEATURE WILL SPREAD MORE
SHOWERS AND BRIEFLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ABOVE 7500 FEET...PERHAPS A LOCALIZED SPOT
ON SIERRA BLANCA OF 4-5 INCHES. AFTER COORDINATION WITH EL PASO
OFFICE...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY ISSUANCE DUE TO
MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED IN POPULATED AREAS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
LINCOLN AND CATRON COUNTIES. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM COULD STEER
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
OTHER CONCERNS WILL BE FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. UNCERTAINTY IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT FOR
MANY CENTRAL AREAS...BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS AND THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO THE SAN JUAN BASIN.

FOR FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO IN THE WAKE
OF THIS EVENING`S DEPARTING TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REBOUND ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING. LIGHT BREEZES WILL KEEP THINGS TRANQUIL WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST.

INTO SATURDAY ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND OFF OF THE
PACIFIC AND EVENTUALLY OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A
MORE NORTHERN ORIGIN THAN THIS EVENING`S SYSTEM...MAKING IT VOID
OF ANY SUBTROPICAL TAP. THIS WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM MUCH DRIER WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE
TOO WEAK FOR ANY STRONG SURFACE WINDS...AND NO SUPPORTIVE LEE SIDE
CYCLONE WILL BE AT WORK EITHER.

BY SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO A STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT...ONE THAT WILL LIKELY STAY IN TACT FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL
DAYS...HOSTING MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS THAT MODELS WILL NO DOUBT
HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING. THE STRONGER GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE
COMPLEMENTED WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS TO BE BUFFETED WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS AND LESSER...BUT STILL BREEZY...SPEEDS IN THE
SURROUNDING AREAS. THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW COULD INITIATE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS...AND
HAVE DECIDED TO HEDGE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR POPS IN THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IN ADDITION
TO THE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND NORTHERN
SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE OR
OCCASIONALLY BELOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PROGRESSIVE STORM TRACK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL DELIVER
ONE MORE ROUND OF MODERATELY ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE A TRANSITION TO LESS ACTIVE/DRIER PATTERN
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING INTO FAR WC/SW NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT FOCUSING THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF DISTRICTS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS EXTENDING EAST TO THE GALLINAS RANGE WHERE ACCUMULATING
SNOW LIKELY NEAR AND ABOVE 6500 FEET.  THE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
AND BETTER CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
OUR FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA.

TONIGHT/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BEFORE
DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH A DRIER/MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
FOLLOWING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL TOP THOSE TODAY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND COMBINED WITH DRIER
AND MORE SEASONABLE DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER
MIN RH/S FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS AS COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY
MOIST CONDITIONS TODAY. VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE
POOR SIDE FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES WHERE DEVELOPING NWLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL HELP TO IMPROVE MIXING THERE.  DOWNWARD
TREND IN VENT RATES FOR SATURDAY.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN COMING IN LINE WITH A GENERAL BAGGY
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY THAT
GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES AS IT SLIDES EAST INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY. LOOKING
QUIET/DRY ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER NC/NW AREAS BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASED
WINDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEYOND SUNDAY... A STRENGTHENING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT APPEARS MOST LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
MAINTAINING SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THE FAR NORTH.  OTHERWISE...
EXPECT DECENT VENTILATION RATES AND PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE...CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY.
EMPHASIS ON PROGRESSIVE...AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN INDICATED OVER
WESTERN CONUS INTO THE EAST PACIFIC DOES NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT FOR OUR REGION NEXT WEEK.  KJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AT LEAST MODERATE IMPACTS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A KGUP-KGNT-KONM-KSRR-KROW LINE...TO INCLUDE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MT OBSCURATIONS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. PREDOMINATELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING
MORE INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW NEAR/ABOVE 7000 FEET DURING THE DAY
BEFORE SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO ALL AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE INCOMING MVFR/PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD REACH KGUP
BEFORE NOON...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
INCLUDED A VC PLACEHOLDER AT KFMN FOR EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
ABQ AREA AIRFIELDS FOR LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE ON
FRINGES OF THE MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. FEWER AND MORE
LIMITED IMPACTS FOR NC AREAS OF THE STATE THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBY AND MT TOP OBSCURATIONS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED. EXPECT
FG/BR DEVELOPMENT AT MANY LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
KFMN AND KGUP AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT LIFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG AT KTCC AND CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE BUT LIKELY TO RETURN BY EARLY EVENING. KJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  21  40  21  45 /   5   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  11  38   9  41 /  10   0   0   5
CUBA............................  15  37  11  40 /  10   0   0   5
GALLUP..........................  15  41  16  45 /  20   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  16  37  15  40 /  30   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  14  41  13  47 /  20   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  21  38  19  38 /  30   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  26  52  26  55 /  40   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................   7  36   8  42 /  20   5   0   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  22  39  20  43 /  10   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  19  38  19  39 /  20   5   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................   9  35   5  35 /  10   5   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  12  31   4  33 /  20   5   5   0
ANGEL FIRE......................   4  36   2  38 /  20   5   5   0
TAOS............................  13  37   9  39 /  10   5   0   0
MORA............................  17  40  16  43 /  10   5   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  16  41  13  42 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  22  37  21  40 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  20  40  20  43 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  24  42  24  44 /  20   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  27  44  27  46 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  21  46  21  47 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  22  45  22  47 /  10   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  23  47  21  46 /  10   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  27  44  25  45 /  10   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  26  49  24  51 /  30   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  20  38  19  41 /  20   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  25  41  23  43 /  20   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  18  43  18  45 /  20   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  20  40  20  43 /  40   5   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  25  44  24  44 /  40   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  25  48  24  51 /  50   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  21  45  24  49 /  60   5   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  14  42  14  46 /  10   5   5   0
RATON...........................  15  44  15  49 /  10   5   0   0
SPRINGER........................  19  48  18  50 /  10   5   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  17  44  18  49 /  10   5   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  24  48  25  50 /  10   5   5   0
ROY.............................  22  48  22  49 /  10   5   5   0
CONCHAS.........................  27  51  26  52 /  10   5   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  28  51  27  54 /  10   5   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  26  50  23  55 /  10   5   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  29  51  26  56 /  30  10   5   0
PORTALES........................  31  53  26  57 /  40  10   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  29  53  26  55 /  20   5   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  31  56  26  57 /  50   5   0   0
PICACHO.........................  30  53  27  54 /  50   5   0   0
ELK.............................  28  51  26  52 /  60   5   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52





000
FXUS65 KABQ 182226
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
326 PM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE IS PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN
ARIZONA AND INTO THE CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE IS SPREADING A GREAT DEAL OF CLOUDINESS
ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO
ALSO DEVELOP THROUGH THE EVENING...PARTICULARLY SOUTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 IN CATRON...SOCORRO...LINCOLN...AND CHAVES COUNTIES.
A FEW INCHES OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH RAIN
MIXING BELOW 6500 TO 7500 FEET. PRECIPITATION WILL CLEAR OUT ON
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO REBOUND A FEW DEGREES OVER
TODAY`S READINGS. TEMPERATURES WILL RISE A FEW MORE DEGREES INTO
THE WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILING ON SATURDAY
BEFORE A FEW NORTHERN MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS DEVELOP ON SUNDAY.
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ALSO DEVELOP SUNDAY AS STRONGER
NORTHWEST WINDS ALOFT INUNDATE THE STATE. PERIODIC SHOWERS WILL
IMPACT THE NORTHERN TIER OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE EARLY PART OF
NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AFTER YESTERDAY`S ONE-TWO PUNCH OF SHORT WAVE TROUGHS...THE NEXT
IS CURRENTLY EXITING AZ AND ENTERING NM. SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE
BEEN NOTED WITHIN THE TROUGH NEAR THE AXIS WHERE SUFFICIENT
COOLING ALOFT RESIDES. THIS TRANSIENT FEATURE WILL SPREAD MORE
SHOWERS AND BRIEFLY SOME THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. PRECIPITATION WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG
THE SOUTHERN BORDER OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A FEW INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION EXPECTED ABOVE 7500 FEET...PERHAPS A LOCALIZED SPOT
ON SIERRA BLANCA OF 4-5 INCHES. AFTER COORDINATION WITH EL PASO
OFFICE...HAVE OPTED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY ADVISORY ISSUANCE DUE TO
MINIMAL IMPACTS EXPECTED IN POPULATED AREAS IN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
LINCOLN AND CATRON COUNTIES. THIS FAST MOVING SYSTEM COULD STEER
THE BULK OF PRECIPITATION OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MIDNIGHT.
OTHER CONCERNS WILL BE FREEZING FOG DEVELOPMENT. UNCERTAINTY IS
QUITE HIGH WITH THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT FOR
MANY CENTRAL AREAS...BUT HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS AND THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS TO THE SAN JUAN BASIN.

FOR FRIDAY...A SHORT WAVE RIDGE BUILDS OVER NEW MEXICO IN THE WAKE
OF THIS EVENING`S DEPARTING TROUGH. THIS WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES
TO REBOUND ONCE ANY LOW CLOUDS AND FOG BURN OFF DURING THE
MORNING. LIGHT BREEZES WILL KEEP THINGS TRANQUIL WHILE DRY
CONDITIONS PERSIST.

INTO SATURDAY ANOTHER PROGRESSIVE TROUGH MOVES INLAND OFF OF THE
PACIFIC AND EVENTUALLY OVER NEW MEXICO. THIS TROUGH WILL HAVE A
MORE NORTHERN ORIGIN THAN THIS EVENING`S SYSTEM...MAKING IT VOID
OF ANY SUBTROPICAL TAP. THIS WILL KEEP THE SYSTEM MUCH DRIER WITH
ESSENTIALLY NO PRECIPITATION FORECAST. THE GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE
TOO WEAK FOR ANY STRONG SURFACE WINDS...AND NO SUPPORTIVE LEE SIDE
CYCLONE WILL BE AT WORK EITHER.

BY SUNDAY THE FLOW ALOFT SHIFTS TO A STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY
COMPONENT...ONE THAT WILL LIKELY STAY IN TACT FOR A FEW TO SEVERAL
DAYS...HOSTING MULTIPLE PERTURBATIONS THAT MODELS WILL NO DOUBT
HAVE DIFFICULTY RESOLVING. THE STRONGER GRADIENT ALOFT WILL BE
COMPLEMENTED WITH A LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH SUNDAY...ALLOWING THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS TO BE BUFFETED WITH GUSTY
CONDITIONS AND LESSER...BUT STILL BREEZY...SPEEDS IN THE
SURROUNDING AREAS. THE PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW COULD INITIATE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS...AND
HAVE DECIDED TO HEDGE ABOVE GUIDANCE FOR POPS IN THE NORTHERN HIGH
TERRAIN SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS. IN ADDITION
TO THE OCCASIONAL BOUTS OF BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS AND NORTHERN
SHOWERS...TEMPERATURES WILL BE SET BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE OR
OCCASIONALLY BELOW FOR THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
PROGRESSIVE STORM TRACK OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN STATES WILL DELIVER
ONE MORE ROUND OF MODERATELY ACTIVE/UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR PARTS OF
THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE A TRANSITION TO LESS ACTIVE/DRIER PATTERN
FRIDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

WELL-DEFINED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ALOFT MOVING INTO FAR WC/SW NEW
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD THROUGH
TONIGHT FOCUSING THE BEST CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN TIER OF DISTRICTS. THIS WOULD INCLUDE THE WEST CENTRAL
HIGHLANDS EXTENDING EAST TO THE GALLINAS RANGE WHERE ACCUMULATING
SNOW LIKELY NEAR AND ABOVE 6500 FEET.  THE MORE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS
AND BETTER CHANCES OF WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF
OUR FIRE WEATHER FORECAST AREA.

TONIGHT/S SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL EXIT THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS BEFORE
DAYBREAK FRIDAY WITH A DRIER/MORE STABLE NORTHWEST FLOW REGIME
FOLLOWING FOR THE BALANCE OF THE DAY.  DAYTIME TEMPERATURES FRIDAY
WILL TOP THOSE TODAY BY A COUPLE OF DEGREES AND COMBINED WITH DRIER
AND MORE SEASONABLE DEW POINTS WILL RESULT IN SUBSTANTIALLY LOWER
MIN RH/S FOR CENTRAL/WESTERN AREAS AS COMPARED TO THE RELATIVELY
MOIST CONDITIONS TODAY. VENTILATION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ON THE
POOR SIDE FRIDAY WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS TO THE LEE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES WHERE DEVELOPING NWLY FLOW ON THE BACKSIDE
OF DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL HELP TO IMPROVE MIXING THERE.  DOWNWARD
TREND IN VENT RATES FOR SATURDAY.

LATEST MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN COMING IN LINE WITH A GENERAL BAGGY
TROUGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES AND NEW MEXICO ON SATURDAY THAT
GRADUALLY AMPLIFIES AS IT SLIDES EAST INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY. LOOKING
QUIET/DRY ON SATURDAY WITH LIMITED OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME SNOW OR
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OVER NC/NW AREAS BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASED
WINDINESS DURING THE AFTERNOON. BEYOND SUNDAY... A STRENGTHENING
NWLY FLOW ALOFT APPEARS MOST LIKELY WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
MAINTAINING SMALL CHANCES OF PRECIP FOR THE FAR NORTH.  OTHERWISE...
EXPECT DECENT VENTILATION RATES AND PREDOMINATELY DRY CONDITIONS.
BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS NOW STRONGLY TRENDING TOWARD A MORE
PROGRESSIVE...CLIPPER-LIKE SYSTEM CENTERED AROUND CHRISTMAS DAY.
EMPHASIS ON PROGRESSIVE...AS THE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN INDICATED OVER
WESTERN CONUS INTO THE EAST PACIFIC DOES NOT LOOK CONDUCIVE FOR
CLOSED LOW DEVELOPMENT FOR OUR REGION NEXT WEEK.  KJ

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AT LEAST MODERATE IMPACTS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A KGUP-KGNT-KONM-KSRR-KROW LINE...TO INCLUDE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MT OBSCURATIONS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. PREDOMINATELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING
MORE INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW NEAR/ABOVE 7000 FEET DURING THE DAY
BEFORE SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO ALL AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE INCOMING MVFR/PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD REACH KGUP
BEFORE NOON...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
INCLUDED A VC PLACEHOLDER AT KFMN FOR EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
ABQ AREA AIRFIELDS FOR LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE ON
FRINGES OF THE MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. FEWER AND MORE
LIMITED IMPACTS FOR NC AREAS OF THE STATE THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBY AND MT TOP OBSCURATIONS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED. EXPECT
FG/BR DEVELOPMENT AT MANY LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
KFMN AND KGUP AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT LIFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG AT KTCC AND CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE BUT LIKELY TO RETURN BY EARLY EVENING. KJ

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  21  40  21  45 /   5   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  11  38   9  41 /  10   0   0   5
CUBA............................  15  37  11  40 /  10   0   0   5
GALLUP..........................  15  41  16  45 /  20   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  16  37  15  40 /  30   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  14  41  13  47 /  20   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  21  38  19  38 /  30   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  26  52  26  55 /  40   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................   7  36   8  42 /  20   5   0   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  22  39  20  43 /  10   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  19  38  19  39 /  20   5   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................   9  35   5  35 /  10   5   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  12  31   4  33 /  20   5   5   0
ANGEL FIRE......................   4  36   2  38 /  20   5   5   0
TAOS............................  13  37   9  39 /  10   5   0   0
MORA............................  17  40  16  43 /  10   5   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  16  41  13  42 /   5   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  22  37  21  40 /  10   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  20  40  20  43 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  24  42  24  44 /  20   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  27  44  27  46 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  21  46  21  47 /  10   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  22  45  22  47 /  10   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  23  47  21  46 /  10   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  27  44  25  45 /  10   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  26  49  24  51 /  30   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  20  38  19  41 /  20   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  25  41  23  43 /  20   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  18  43  18  45 /  20   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  20  40  20  43 /  40   5   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  25  44  24  44 /  40   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  25  48  24  51 /  50   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  21  45  24  49 /  60   5   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  14  42  14  46 /  10   5   5   0
RATON...........................  15  44  15  49 /  10   5   0   0
SPRINGER........................  19  48  18  50 /  10   5   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  17  44  18  49 /  10   5   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  24  48  25  50 /  10   5   5   0
ROY.............................  22  48  22  49 /  10   5   5   0
CONCHAS.........................  27  51  26  52 /  10   5   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  28  51  27  54 /  10   5   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  26  50  23  55 /  10   5   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  29  51  26  56 /  30  10   5   0
PORTALES........................  31  53  26  57 /  40  10   5   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  29  53  26  55 /  20   5   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  31  56  26  57 /  50   5   0   0
PICACHO.........................  30  53  27  54 /  50   5   0   0
ELK.............................  28  51  26  52 /  60   5   5   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 181755 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1055 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AT LEAST MODERATE IMPACTS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A KGUP-KGNT-KONM-KSRR-KROW LINE...TO INCLUDE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MT OBSCURATIONS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. PREDOMINATELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING
MORE INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW NEAR/ABOVE 7000 FEET DURING THE DAY
BEFORE SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO ALL AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE INCOMING MVFR/PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD REACH KGUP
BEFORE NOON...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
INCLUDED A VC PLACEHOLDER AT KFMN FOR EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
ABQ AREA AIRFIELDS FOR LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE ON
FRINGES OF THE MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. FEWER AND MORE
LIMITED IMPACTS FOR NC AREAS OF THE STATE THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBY AND MT TOP OBSCURATIONS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED. EXPECT
FG/BR DEVELOPMENT AT MANY LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
KFMN AND KGUP AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT LIFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG AT KTCC AND CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE BUT LIKELY TO RETURN BY EARLY EVENING. KJ


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...446 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS EASTWARD OVER THE STATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
60. ELSEWHERE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. AFTER
WIDESPREAD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY...A
TEMPERATURE REBOUND WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST SATURDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE AGAIN MONDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALSO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH 700 MB TEMPS IN THE -4 TO -6 RANGE...THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD
VARY AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FEET TODAY BEFORE PLUMMETING TO VALLEY
BOTTOMS TONIGHT. MODELS ARE TRACKING THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO BE SURE
THEY DONT ACCUMULATE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS. IT LOOKS LIKE A
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW EVENT FOR THEM...DECREASING OUR CONFIDENCE
THEY WILL GET MORE THAN A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

AFTER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...A
DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE STATE ON
SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD ON SUNDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THAT TROUGH AS THE NOSE OF A
SPEED MAXIMUM IN THE POLAR JET DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA.
NW WINDS SHOULD BECOME BREEZY IN MANY LOCATIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH ALSO DEEPENS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED MONDAY.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. IT WILL SEND A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER PACIFIC WAVE WILL GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WETTING
MOISTURE IS NOT LIKELY ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT LOCALIZED WETTING
RESULTS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. DRIER PERIOD FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW WINDS
SHOULD CRANK UP SUNDAY AND INTENSIFY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE WITH HIGHER VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION RATES WILL CERTAINLY VARY WITH LOWER NUMBERS TODAY.
PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS ON FRIDAY. THE MORE ROBUST
IMPROVEMENTS COME ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STILL LOOKING AT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
STILL WAY TO EARLY TO SAY WETTING RESULTS BUT EXPECT A COOL DOWN.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST AZ. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE MORE THAN NORTHERN PORTIONS. SPOT
SHOWERS CONTAINING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FIRE WEATHER AREA. PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED WETTING RESULTS ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. VENTILATION APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN STORY WITH MUCH LOWER RATES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY HIGH.

THE WAVE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW SLIGHT
RIDGING. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER...ESPECIALLY AS A MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSIONS TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS PARTICULAR INTRUSION
LOOKS TO BE AT MODERATELY STRONG. TRIED TO ADJUST DEWPOINTS/RH
ACCORDINGLY ALTHOUGH WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM PAST
SYSTEMS...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP TOO MUCH. REGARDLESS...RH VALUES
SHOULD STILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH MOST AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
AS THE FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY AND INTENSIFIES SOME. THE HIGHEST
RATES WILL BE FOUND ALONG A LINE FROM GRANTS/MT TAYLOR TO THE
ESTANCIA BASIN/CHUPADERA MESA.

MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BUMPED UP THEIR TIMING OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE
FOR THE WEEKEND. THE WAVE SHOULD SLIDE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VENTILATION RATES SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
DUE TO THE WAVE PASSAGE ON SATURDAY BUT IMPROVE MORE ON SUNDAY DUE
TO A STRENGTHENING NW FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE. COULD STILL BE SOME
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IMPACTS TO THE DEWPOINTS AND RH
SATURDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF...OTHERWISE RISING
HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY. MODELS SEEM TO REALLY INCREASE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
SUNDAY. WOULD HAVE THOUGHT A DECREASE WAS IN ORDER DUE TO ANOTHER
DRY INTRUSION ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO REMAIN TO THE WEST BASED ON
MODEL FORECASTS.

MONDAY/TUESDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN WEDNESDAY SHOW INTENSIFYING NW FLOW
ALOFT THUS BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THIS TREND THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO
BE IN GOOD ALIGNMENT WITH THEIR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE TO GOOD FOR THIS PERIOD. EXPECT DECENT VENTILATION RATES
AND DRIER OVERALL CONDITIONS. CANT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

CONFIDENCE WANES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
DUE TO A DEEP PACIFIC LOW SLIDING DOWN THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN. AS
OF RIGHT NOW...WETTING MOISTURE/SNOW IS VERY POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWED A DEEP LOW WITH SNOW FOR THIS WEEKEND
AND THAT APPEARS TO NOT HAVE PANNED OUT. ECMWF HAS THE LOW FURTHER
WEST THAN GFS SO A WETTER SCENARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWED THE PACIFIC LOW
FURTHER WEST FOR THIS WEEKEND SO NOT SURE WHAT TO THINK. WILL BE
MONITORING THE TREND CLOSELY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE COOLER AIR
WOULD INFILTRATE THE AREA.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 181755 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1055 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AT LEAST MODERATE IMPACTS EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DURING
THIS FORECAST CYCLE. MOST SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG
AND SOUTH OF A KGUP-KGNT-KONM-KSRR-KROW LINE...TO INCLUDE AN
EXTENDED PERIOD OF MT OBSCURATIONS LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT FOR
WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. PREDOMINATELY LIGHT PRECIPITATION TO
EXPAND EASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NM THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE SHIFTING
MORE INTO SOUTHERN AREAS OF THE STATE TONIGHT. THE PRECIP WILL
FALL IN THE FORM OF SNOW NEAR/ABOVE 7000 FEET DURING THE DAY
BEFORE SNOW LEVELS LOWER TO ALL AREAS BY EARLY EVENING. THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE INCOMING MVFR/PRECIP SHIELD SHOULD REACH KGUP
BEFORE NOON...WHICH IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST.
INCLUDED A VC PLACEHOLDER AT KFMN FOR EARLY AFTERNOON AS WELL AS
ABQ AREA AIRFIELDS FOR LATE DAY/EARLY EVENING...WHICH WILL BE ON
FRINGES OF THE MORE ORGANIZED PRECIPITATION. FEWER AND MORE
LIMITED IMPACTS FOR NC AREAS OF THE STATE THOUGH LOCALIZED MVFR
CIGS/VSBY AND MT TOP OBSCURATIONS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED. EXPECT
FG/BR DEVELOPMENT AT MANY LOCATIONS AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY
KFMN AND KGUP AND RIO GRANDE VALLEY. MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT LIFR
CONDITIONS IN STRATUS/FOG AT KTCC AND CANADIAN RIVER VALLEY TO
SLOWLY IMPROVE BUT LIKELY TO RETURN BY EARLY EVENING. KJ


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...446 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014...


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MST THU DEC 18 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PASS EASTWARD OVER THE STATE TODAY
AND TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS FAVORING THE
MOUNTAINS AND LOCATIONS SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40. AN INCH OR TWO OF
SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS...MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
60. ELSEWHERE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND SPOTTY. AFTER
WIDESPREAD BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY AND FRIDAY...A
TEMPERATURE REBOUND WILL BEGIN IN EARNEST SATURDAY WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES REACHING ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE AGAIN MONDAY.
NORTHWEST WINDS SHOULD ALSO BECOME BREEZY TO WINDY ON MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WITH 700 MB TEMPS IN THE -4 TO -6 RANGE...THE SNOW LEVEL SHOULD
VARY AROUND 5000 TO 6000 FEET TODAY BEFORE PLUMMETING TO VALLEY
BOTTOMS TONIGHT. MODELS ARE TRACKING THE BETTER DYNAMICS WITH THE
PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SOUTH OF OUR FORECAST AREA...BUT WE
WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO BE SURE
THEY DONT ACCUMULATE ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW AMOUNTS. IT LOOKS LIKE A
WESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW EVENT FOR THEM...DECREASING OUR CONFIDENCE
THEY WILL GET MORE THAN A FEW INCHES OF SNOW.

AFTER A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND...A
DRY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO AMPLIFY OVER THE STATE ON
SATURDAY BEFORE SHIFTING EASTWARD ON SUNDAY. NW FLOW ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN IN THE WAKE OF THAT TROUGH AS THE NOSE OF A
SPEED MAXIMUM IN THE POLAR JET DIPS SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE AREA.
NW WINDS SHOULD BECOME BREEZY IN MANY LOCATIONS SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AS A LEE TROUGH ALSO DEEPENS. BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS
ARE THEN EXPECTED MONDAY.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DEEPEN OVER THE MID
SECTION OF THE COUNTRY MONDAY THROUGH MID WEEK. IT WILL SEND A
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT INTO THE FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY...AND THIS FRONT SHOULD REMAIN ENTRENCHED ON THE EASTERN
PLAINS THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER PACIFIC WAVE WILL GRAZE THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. WETTING
MOISTURE IS NOT LIKELY ALTHOUGH CANT RULE OUT LOCALIZED WETTING
RESULTS ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS. DRIER PERIOD FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND AND SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW WINDS
SHOULD CRANK UP SUNDAY AND INTENSIFY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. HUMIDITY
DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AN ISSUE WITH HIGHER VALUES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION RATES WILL CERTAINLY VARY WITH LOWER NUMBERS TODAY.
PERHAPS SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENTS ON FRIDAY. THE MORE ROBUST
IMPROVEMENTS COME ON SUNDAY AND SHOULD LAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
STILL LOOKING AT AN UNSETTLED PATTERN FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
STILL WAY TO EARLY TO SAY WETTING RESULTS BUT EXPECT A COOL DOWN.

SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND SOUTHWEST AZ. THIS WAVE IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE MORE THAN NORTHERN PORTIONS. SPOT
SHOWERS CONTAINING MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE FIRE WEATHER AREA. PERHAPS SOME LOCALIZED WETTING RESULTS ACROSS
FAR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. VENTILATION APPEARS TO BE THE
MAIN STORY WITH MUCH LOWER RATES COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITY
VALUES WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY HIGH.

THE WAVE WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA ON FRIDAY AND ALLOW SLIGHT
RIDGING. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL LOWER...ESPECIALLY AS A MID LEVEL DRY
INTRUSIONS TRIES TO BUILD OVER THE AREA. THIS PARTICULAR INTRUSION
LOOKS TO BE AT MODERATELY STRONG. TRIED TO ADJUST DEWPOINTS/RH
ACCORDINGLY ALTHOUGH WITH RESIDUAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM PAST
SYSTEMS...DEWPOINTS SHOULD DROP TOO MUCH. REGARDLESS...RH VALUES
SHOULD STILL BE UNSEASONABLY HIGH MOST AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
WARM BUT STILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT
AS THE FLOW TURNS NORTHWESTERLY AND INTENSIFIES SOME. THE HIGHEST
RATES WILL BE FOUND ALONG A LINE FROM GRANTS/MT TAYLOR TO THE
ESTANCIA BASIN/CHUPADERA MESA.

MODELS SEEM TO HAVE BUMPED UP THEIR TIMING OF THE NEXT PACIFIC WAVE
FOR THE WEEKEND. THE WAVE SHOULD SLIDE OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH WITH LITTLE FANFARE. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. VENTILATION RATES SHOULD IMPROVE SLIGHTLY
DUE TO THE WAVE PASSAGE ON SATURDAY BUT IMPROVE MORE ON SUNDAY DUE
TO A STRENGTHENING NW FLOW BEHIND THE WAVE. COULD STILL BE SOME
RESIDUAL MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION IMPACTS TO THE DEWPOINTS AND RH
SATURDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD TO HALF...OTHERWISE RISING
HUMIDITY ON SUNDAY. MODELS SEEM TO REALLY INCREASE SURFACE DEWPOINTS
SUNDAY. WOULD HAVE THOUGHT A DECREASE WAS IN ORDER DUE TO ANOTHER
DRY INTRUSION ALTHOUGH IT APPEARS TO REMAIN TO THE WEST BASED ON
MODEL FORECASTS.

MONDAY/TUESDAY AND PERHAPS EVEN WEDNESDAY SHOW INTENSIFYING NW FLOW
ALOFT THUS BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS AT THE SURFACE. MODELS HAVE BEEN
SHOWING THIS TREND THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS AND GFS/ECMWF APPEAR TO
BE IN GOOD ALIGNMENT WITH THEIR RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. CONFIDENCE
IS MODERATE TO GOOD FOR THIS PERIOD. EXPECT DECENT VENTILATION RATES
AND DRIER OVERALL CONDITIONS. CANT RULE OUT SOME LIGHT SHOWERS
ACROSS THE FAR NORTH.

CONFIDENCE WANES FOR LATE NEXT WEEK. MODELS SHOW AN UNSETTLED PERIOD
DUE TO A DEEP PACIFIC LOW SLIDING DOWN THE ROCKIES/GREAT BASIN. AS
OF RIGHT NOW...WETTING MOISTURE/SNOW IS VERY POSSIBLE WITH THIS
SYSTEM ALTHOUGH MODELS SHOWED A DEEP LOW WITH SNOW FOR THIS WEEKEND
AND THAT APPEARS TO NOT HAVE PANNED OUT. ECMWF HAS THE LOW FURTHER
WEST THAN GFS SO A WETTER SCENARIO. THE ECMWF SHOWED THE PACIFIC LOW
FURTHER WEST FOR THIS WEEKEND SO NOT SURE WHAT TO THINK. WILL BE
MONITORING THE TREND CLOSELY. EITHER WAY...LOOKS LIKE COOLER AIR
WOULD INFILTRATE THE AREA.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








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