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000
FXUS65 KABQ 261734 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1134 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR conditions prevail and are forecast to persist outside of
showers and storms...which are forecast to increase in coverage
and intensity going into the afternoon and early evening hours.
MVFR conditions are a good bet in/near storms...with short-lived
IFR conditions possible. Terminals most likely to be impacted are
KTCC...KSAF...KROW and KABQ.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure aloft will be the dominant weather feature
for this week and into the July Fourth holiday weekend.  The high
center is expected to wobble around over the region from day to day,
so areal coverage of showers and storms as well as storm motion may
vary from day to day. Daytime temperatures generally will vary
within 5 degrees of average for late June and early June, while
overnight lows will be above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Recent radar imagery proves you can`t always count out the
possibility of convection despite what might be a somewhat drier air
mass, with cells drifting to the south and southeast over nw NM
early this morning. Elsewhere, Saturday evening`s convection in the
plains continues to wane to what looks like sprinkles. East wind
anticipated at KABQ has been sporadic at best, so far. Plume of
moisture remains stretched across NM from southwest to northeast,
and expect it will lift slightly to the north and northwest today,
so returned slight chance pops to the far nw. Otherwise models don`t
offer much new or substantially different in the short term, so not
a lot of changes necessary to the grids. Temperatures in the east
cool down a bit again today but guidance has been cooler than
reality recently so went a degree or two warmer. Overall though,
forecast highs will be within about 5 degrees of average the next
several days, while lows will be warmer than normal.

The upper high center to drift around the Four Corners early to mid
this week, then makes occasional excursions farther south and east.
East to west steering flow leads to a more stable air mass over
portions of the plains early this week, according to the NAM12.
While weak surface boundaries in the northeast may be the result of
convection rolling off the high terrain, a bona fide front may
affect the northeast late in the work week. Moisture looks to be
sufficient for continued convection for the foreseeable future.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Active weather pattern to continue during the next seven days as the
North American Monsoon looks to get underway early.

Upper level moisture plume continues over much of NM, oriented from
southwest to northeast across the state. The dry intrusion into the
northwest Saturday will not be quite as pronounced today, as low
level moisture has spilled into the Rio Grande Valley from the east.
This will result in a little better chance of showers and
thunderstorms from the Continental Divide to the central mountain
chain this afternoon and evening. The best chances though will be
from the central mountains to the TX border. The far northwest will
likely be rain free, roughly from Gallup to Farmington.

High pressure aloft will build just to the northwest of NM today
through Tuesday, while the closed low over west TX slowly crosses
southern NM. We may miss out on the higher QPF amounts to the south
of our CWA, but we will certainly remain active with good coverage
of wetting rains Monday and Tuesday. Mountainous and southern areas
should fair the best overall Monday, while the mountain zones and
west receive the best rainfall Tuesday. With the upper flow from
northeast to southwest, our southeast zones will have the least
chance of rain.

The upper high will shift southeast mid and late week, taking up
residence in southeast NM. This will tap into the deeper monsoonal
moisture over Mexico. Western and northern areas will see daily
rounds of showers and thunderstorms. With slow moving storms and
plenty of moisture and instability to work with, downpours will
occur and there will be a risk of localized flash flooding.
Occasional intrusions of back door fronts, aided by the
convection, will impact northeast NM through next weekend,
providing upticks in storm chances there.

Ventilation rates will remain mostly fair to excellent through this
week.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

33




000
FXUS65 KABQ 261132 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
532 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Another round of -shra/tsra with lcl heavy rain, strong outflow
winds, mall hail and frequent lightning are on tap today. Storm
motions will be slow and variable. Areas that take a direct hit
will see vsby restrictions from heavy rain. Activity is expected
to continue into tonight. Best chances should be LVS and TCC so
have 3 hours VCTS with 2 hours of tempo TSRA. Only VCSH for now
at other TAF sites later this afternoon and evening, except
nothing at FMN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure aloft will be the dominant weather feature
for this week and into the July Fourth holiday weekend.  The high
center is expected to wobble around over the region from day to day,
so areal coverage of showers and storms as well as storm motion may
vary from day to day. Daytime temperatures generally will vary
within 5 degrees of average for late June and early June, while
overnight lows will be above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Recent radar imagery proves you can`t always count out the
possibility of convection despite what might be a somewhat drier air
mass, with cells drifting to the south and southeast over nw NM
early this morning. Elsewhere, Saturday evening`s convection in the
plains continues to wane to what looks like sprinkles. East wind
anticipated at KABQ has been sporadic at best, so far. Plume of
moisture remains stretched across NM from southwest to northeast,
and expect it will lift slightly to the north and northwest today,
so returned slight chance pops to the far nw. Otherwise models don`t
offer much new or substantially different in the short term, so not
a lot of changes necessary to the grids. Temperatures in the east
cool down a bit again today but guidance has been cooler than
reality recently so went a degree or two warmer. Overall though,
forecast highs will be within about 5 degrees of average the next
several days, while lows will be warmer than normal.

The upper high center to drift around the Four Corners early to mid
this week, then makes occasional excursions farther south and east.
East to west steering flow leads to a more stable air mass over
portions of the plains early this week, according to the NAM12.
While weak surface boundaries in the northeast may be the result of
convection rolling off the high terrain, a bona fide front may
affect the northeast late in the work week. Moisture looks to be
sufficient for continued convection for the foreseeable future.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Active weather pattern to continue during the next seven days as the
North American Monsoon looks to get underway early.

Upper level moisture plume continues over much of NM, oriented from
southwest to northeast across the state. The dry intrusion into the
northwest Saturday will not be quite as pronounced today, as low
level moisture has spilled into the Rio Grande Valley from the east.
This will result in a little better chance of showers and
thunderstorms from the Continental Divide to the central mountain
chain this afternoon and evening. The best chances though will be
from the central mountains to the TX border. The far northwest will
likely be rain free, roughly from Gallup to Farmington.

High pressure aloft will build just to the northwest of NM today
through Tuesday, while the closed low over west TX slowly crosses
southern NM. We may miss out on the higher QPF amounts to the south
of our CWA, but we will certainly remain active with good coverage
of wetting rains Monday and Tuesday. Mountainous and southern areas
should fair the best overall Monday, while the mountain zones and
west receive the best rainfall Tuesday. With the upper flow from
northeast to southwest, our southeast zones will have the least
chance of rain.

The upper high will shift southeast mid and late week, taking up
residence in southeast NM. This will tap into the deeper monsoonal
moisture over Mexico. Western and northern areas will see daily
rounds of showers and thunderstorms. With slow moving storms and
plenty of moisture and instability to work with, downpours will
occur and there will be a risk of localized flash flooding.
Occasional intrusions of back door fronts, aided by the
convection, will impact northeast NM through next weekend,
providing upticks in storm chances there.

Ventilation rates will remain mostly fair to excellent through this
week.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 261132 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
532 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
Another round of -shra/tsra with lcl heavy rain, strong outflow
winds, mall hail and frequent lightning are on tap today. Storm
motions will be slow and variable. Areas that take a direct hit
will see vsby restrictions from heavy rain. Activity is expected
to continue into tonight. Best chances should be LVS and TCC so
have 3 hours VCTS with 2 hours of tempo TSRA. Only VCSH for now
at other TAF sites later this afternoon and evening, except
nothing at FMN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure aloft will be the dominant weather feature
for this week and into the July Fourth holiday weekend.  The high
center is expected to wobble around over the region from day to day,
so areal coverage of showers and storms as well as storm motion may
vary from day to day. Daytime temperatures generally will vary
within 5 degrees of average for late June and early June, while
overnight lows will be above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Recent radar imagery proves you can`t always count out the
possibility of convection despite what might be a somewhat drier air
mass, with cells drifting to the south and southeast over nw NM
early this morning. Elsewhere, Saturday evening`s convection in the
plains continues to wane to what looks like sprinkles. East wind
anticipated at KABQ has been sporadic at best, so far. Plume of
moisture remains stretched across NM from southwest to northeast,
and expect it will lift slightly to the north and northwest today,
so returned slight chance pops to the far nw. Otherwise models don`t
offer much new or substantially different in the short term, so not
a lot of changes necessary to the grids. Temperatures in the east
cool down a bit again today but guidance has been cooler than
reality recently so went a degree or two warmer. Overall though,
forecast highs will be within about 5 degrees of average the next
several days, while lows will be warmer than normal.

The upper high center to drift around the Four Corners early to mid
this week, then makes occasional excursions farther south and east.
East to west steering flow leads to a more stable air mass over
portions of the plains early this week, according to the NAM12.
While weak surface boundaries in the northeast may be the result of
convection rolling off the high terrain, a bona fide front may
affect the northeast late in the work week. Moisture looks to be
sufficient for continued convection for the foreseeable future.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Active weather pattern to continue during the next seven days as the
North American Monsoon looks to get underway early.

Upper level moisture plume continues over much of NM, oriented from
southwest to northeast across the state. The dry intrusion into the
northwest Saturday will not be quite as pronounced today, as low
level moisture has spilled into the Rio Grande Valley from the east.
This will result in a little better chance of showers and
thunderstorms from the Continental Divide to the central mountain
chain this afternoon and evening. The best chances though will be
from the central mountains to the TX border. The far northwest will
likely be rain free, roughly from Gallup to Farmington.

High pressure aloft will build just to the northwest of NM today
through Tuesday, while the closed low over west TX slowly crosses
southern NM. We may miss out on the higher QPF amounts to the south
of our CWA, but we will certainly remain active with good coverage
of wetting rains Monday and Tuesday. Mountainous and southern areas
should fair the best overall Monday, while the mountain zones and
west receive the best rainfall Tuesday. With the upper flow from
northeast to southwest, our southeast zones will have the least
chance of rain.

The upper high will shift southeast mid and late week, taking up
residence in southeast NM. This will tap into the deeper monsoonal
moisture over Mexico. Western and northern areas will see daily
rounds of showers and thunderstorms. With slow moving storms and
plenty of moisture and instability to work with, downpours will
occur and there will be a risk of localized flash flooding.
Occasional intrusions of back door fronts, aided by the
convection, will impact northeast NM through next weekend,
providing upticks in storm chances there.

Ventilation rates will remain mostly fair to excellent through this
week.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 260934
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
330 AM MDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure aloft will be the dominant weather feature
for this week and into the July Fourth holiday weekend.  The high
center is expected to wobble around over the region from day to day,
so areal coverage of showers and storms as well as storm motion may
vary from day to day. Daytime temperatures generally will vary
within 5 degrees of average for late June and early June, while
overnight lows will be above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Recent radar imagery proves you can`t always count out the
possibility of convection despite what might be a somewhat drier air
mass, with cells drifting to the south and southeast over nw NM
early this morning. Elsewhere, Saturday evening`s convection in the
plains continues to wane to what looks like sprinkles. East wind
anticipated at KABQ has been sporadic at best, so far. Plume of
moisture remains stretched across NM from southwest to northeast,
and expect it will lift slightly to the north and northwest today,
so returned slight chance pops to the far nw. Otherwise models don`t
offer much new or substantially different in the short term, so not
a lot of changes necessary to the grids. Temperatures in the east
cool down a bit again today but guidance has been cooler than
reality recently so went a degree or two warmer. Overall though,
forecast highs will be within about 5 degrees of average the next
several days, while lows will be warmer than normal.

The upper high center to drift around the Four Corners early to mid
this week, then makes occasional excursions farther south and east.
East to west steering flow leads to a more stable air mass over
portions of the plains early this week, according to the NAM12.
While weak surface boundaries in the northeast may be the result of
convection rolling off the high terrain, a bona fide front may
affect the northeast late in the work week. Moisture looks to be
sufficient for continued convection for the foreseeable future.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Active weather pattern to continue during the next seven days as the
North American Monsoon looks to get underway early.

Upper level moisture plume continues over much of NM, oriented from
southwest to northeast across the state. The dry intrusion into the
northwest Saturday will not be quite as pronounced today, as low
level moisture has spilled into the Rio Grande Valley from the east.
This will result in a little better chance of showers and
thunderstorms from the Continental Divide to the central mountain
chain this afternoon and evening. The best chances though will be
from the central mountains to the TX border. The far northwest will
likely be rain free, roughly from Gallup to Farmington.

High pressure aloft will build just to the northwest of NM today
through Tuesday, while the closed low over west TX slowly crosses
southern NM. We may miss out on the higher QPF amounts to the south
of our CWA, but we will certainly remain active with good coverage
of wetting rains Monday and Tuesday. Mountainous and southern areas
should fair the best overall Monday, while the mountain zones and
west receive the best rainfall Tuesday. With the upper flow from
northeast to southwest, our southeast zones will have the least
chance of rain.

The upper high will shift southeast mid and late week, taking up
residence in southeast NM. This will tap into the deeper monsoonal
moisture over Mexico. Western and northern areas will see daily
rounds of showers and thunderstorms. With slow moving storms and
plenty of moisture and instbility to work with, douwnpours will
occur and there will be a risk of localized flash flooding.
Occasional intrusions of back door fronts, aided by the convection,
will impact northeast NM through next weekend, providing upticks in
storm chances there.

Ventilation rates will remain mostly fair to excellent through this
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Remnant -shra over eastern NM are fading slowly late tonight. Low
level flow is becoming southeasterly and will push moisture to the
north and west overnight. Gusty winds are likely for KABQ and KSAF
as the moist boundary surges northwest. Isold -shra are possible
anywhere from the Cont Dvd eastward thru sunrise. Another round of
-shra/tsra w/ lcl heavy rain, strong outflow winds, and frequent
lightning are on tap Sunday. Storm motions are expected to be from
east to west. Any activity that fires along the central mt chain
will drift west into the RGV aft 21Z. Areas that take a direct
hit will see vsby restrictions from heavy rain. Activity is then
expected to favor the Cont Dvd aft sunset.

Guyer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  95  64  96  65 /  10  10  10  10
Dulce...........................  88  51  89  51 /  20  20  20  20
Cuba............................  85  53  86  55 /  40  30  30  30
Gallup..........................  91  58  91  59 /  10  20  20  30
El Morro........................  86  53  87  55 /  30  30  30  40
Grants..........................  88  56  88  57 /  30  20  30  30
Quemado.........................  87  58  88  58 /  30  40  30  40
Glenwood........................  93  63  89  65 /  40  30  40  40
Chama...........................  80  49  79  48 /  30  30  30  30
Los Alamos......................  82  58  85  58 /  30  30  30  30
Pecos...........................  81  54  80  54 /  50  50  40  30
Cerro/Questa....................  81  51  82  50 /  40  30  30  30
Red River.......................  75  44  73  46 /  60  40  40  40
Angel Fire......................  76  43  79  44 /  60  40  40  30
Taos............................  83  53  84  51 /  30  30  30  30
Mora............................  78  51  77  51 /  60  40  40  30
Espanola........................  88  59  89  60 /  20  40  20  30
Santa Fe........................  84  58  84  57 /  50  40  40  30
Santa Fe Airport................  87  60  88  59 /  30  40  30  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  87  65  89  63 /  30  30  30  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  90  68  90  66 /  20  30  20  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  92  63  92  66 /  20  20  20  30
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  91  63  91  65 /  20  30  20  30
Los Lunas.......................  92  64  93  65 /  20  20  20  30
Rio Rancho......................  90  66  91  64 /  20  30  20  30
Socorro.........................  93  65  92  64 /  20  30  30  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  85  62  87  59 /  40  50  30  30
Tijeras.........................  86  63  88  60 /  40  50  30  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  83  57  84  57 /  40  50  30  20
Clines Corners..................  79  58  81  55 /  50  50  30  30
Gran Quivira....................  82  59  84  57 /  40  60  30  30
Carrizozo.......................  84  62  85  60 /  40  50  30  30
Ruidoso.........................  78  54  76  54 /  50  50  40  40
Capulin.........................  81  55  84  55 /  40  20  30  30
Raton...........................  85  56  87  55 /  40  20  30  30
Springer........................  83  55  86  57 /  30  20  30  20
Las Vegas.......................  81  53  81  53 /  50  30  30  20
Clayton.........................  88  61  88  61 /  40  20  20  20
Roy.............................  85  59  85  58 /  50  20  30  20
Conchas.........................  87  63  89  65 /  50  20  20  20
Santa Rosa......................  88  63  88  63 /  40  40  20  20
Tucumcari.......................  92  67  92  65 /  40  40  20  20
Clovis..........................  88  64  87  64 /  30  50  20  20
Portales........................  89  66  88  64 /  20  50  20  20
Fort Sumner.....................  88  66  88  64 /  40  50  20  20
Roswell.........................  92  68  90  67 /  20  40  20  20
Picacho.........................  85  62  84  61 /  40  40  30  30
Elk.............................  80  58  79  58 /  40  30  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 260539 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1139 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Remnant -shra over eastern NM are fading slowly late tonight. Low
level flow is becoming southeasterly and will push moisture to the
north and west overnight. Gusty winds are likely for KABQ and KSAF
as the moist boundary surges northwest. Isold -shra are possible
anywhere from the Cont Dvd eastward thru sunrise. Another round of
-shra/tsra w/ lcl heavy rain, strong outflow winds, and frequent
lightning are on tap Sunday. Storm motions are expected to be from
east to west. Any activity that fires along the central mt chain
will drift west into the RGV aft 21Z. Areas that take a direct
hit will see vsby restrictions from heavy rain. Activity is then
expected to favor the Cont Dvd aft sunset.

Guyer

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure center aloft will become less distinct into early
Sunday then reform near to a little west of the four corners
thereafter, remaining in or very near that location through at
least midweek next week. Daytime temperatures will ease back to
near even a few degrees below seasonal normals. Moisture will be
replenished to a fair degree across west central and northwest New
Mexico over the next 48 hours increasing shower and thunderstorm
chances there, more so starting Monday than Sunday. Elsewhere it
should be sufficient for daily rounds of afternoon and evening
showers and storms, generally initiating over the higher terrain
then drifting into the lower elevations. Southeast sections of
the state will likely see lower chances for rain, especially
starting Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
After what looked to be a quite moist start to the day across the
nw third to half of the state and thinking that the fcst models
had underestimated rain chances there, it looks as though the
combination of the higher lvl heating-reducing clouds
accompanying the very noticeable moist plume aloft and the lower
moisture levels below that did the fcst models proud, indeed
shutting off convection so far there. This trend to continue into
tonight and begin to change Sun and more so Mon as deeper moisture
sloshes into that part of the state.

High pressure aloft will re-center itself near to a little west
of the Four Corners thereafter, remaining in or very near that
location through at least midweek next week. Daytime temps will
ease back to near even a few degrees below seasonal normals.
With the aforementioned moisture influx into west central and
northwest New Mexico over the next 48 hours increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances there, more so starting Monday than Sunday,
and likely continuing there for much if not all of the week.
Sufficient to generous moisture lvls elsewhere will likely
produce daily rounds of afternoon and evening showers and storms,
generally initiating over the higher terrain then drifting into
the lower elevations, but se quarter to third of the state should
see less, perhaps next-to-no activity by mid to late week.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Active weather pattern to continue during the next seven days as the
North American Monsoon gets underway early. Upper level moisture
plume is more bark than bite across western areas. Most convective
activity today will be relegated to locations southeast of a line
from Glenwood to Las Vegas to Raton where low level moisture is
prevalent. Dry air in the low levels of the atmosphere has moved
into much of western and across portions of central New Mexico.
Sunday will be a different story as low level moisture surges
northwestward tonight. Still the far northwest gets left out Sunday,
with low level dry air remaining in place and the upper high
building back over the Four Corners.

NAM suggesting that as the upper high over the Four Corners draws in
dry air aloft from the northeast Monday...convection will be limited
to the northern mountains and far west Monday afternoon and evening.
GFS keeps dry air aloft farther southeast and keeps most mountain
areas active. NAM struggles beyond 36 hours so suspect the GFS may
be more on track with upper level moisture placement next week. GFS
keeps the upper high centered near the Four Corners and keeps
daily rounds of afternoon and evening convection for most areas.

Ventilation rates will remain in the fair to excellent range through
mid week.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 260539 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1139 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
Remnant -shra over eastern NM are fading slowly late tonight. Low
level flow is becoming southeasterly and will push moisture to the
north and west overnight. Gusty winds are likely for KABQ and KSAF
as the moist boundary surges northwest. Isold -shra are possible
anywhere from the Cont Dvd eastward thru sunrise. Another round of
-shra/tsra w/ lcl heavy rain, strong outflow winds, and frequent
lightning are on tap Sunday. Storm motions are expected to be from
east to west. Any activity that fires along the central mt chain
will drift west into the RGV aft 21Z. Areas that take a direct
hit will see vsby restrictions from heavy rain. Activity is then
expected to favor the Cont Dvd aft sunset.

Guyer

&&



.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure center aloft will become less distinct into early
Sunday then reform near to a little west of the four corners
thereafter, remaining in or very near that location through at
least midweek next week. Daytime temperatures will ease back to
near even a few degrees below seasonal normals. Moisture will be
replenished to a fair degree across west central and northwest New
Mexico over the next 48 hours increasing shower and thunderstorm
chances there, more so starting Monday than Sunday. Elsewhere it
should be sufficient for daily rounds of afternoon and evening
showers and storms, generally initiating over the higher terrain
then drifting into the lower elevations. Southeast sections of
the state will likely see lower chances for rain, especially
starting Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
After what looked to be a quite moist start to the day across the
nw third to half of the state and thinking that the fcst models
had underestimated rain chances there, it looks as though the
combination of the higher lvl heating-reducing clouds
accompanying the very noticeable moist plume aloft and the lower
moisture levels below that did the fcst models proud, indeed
shutting off convection so far there. This trend to continue into
tonight and begin to change Sun and more so Mon as deeper moisture
sloshes into that part of the state.

High pressure aloft will re-center itself near to a little west
of the Four Corners thereafter, remaining in or very near that
location through at least midweek next week. Daytime temps will
ease back to near even a few degrees below seasonal normals.
With the aforementioned moisture influx into west central and
northwest New Mexico over the next 48 hours increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances there, more so starting Monday than Sunday,
and likely continuing there for much if not all of the week.
Sufficient to generous moisture lvls elsewhere will likely
produce daily rounds of afternoon and evening showers and storms,
generally initiating over the higher terrain then drifting into
the lower elevations, but se quarter to third of the state should
see less, perhaps next-to-no activity by mid to late week.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Active weather pattern to continue during the next seven days as the
North American Monsoon gets underway early. Upper level moisture
plume is more bark than bite across western areas. Most convective
activity today will be relegated to locations southeast of a line
from Glenwood to Las Vegas to Raton where low level moisture is
prevalent. Dry air in the low levels of the atmosphere has moved
into much of western and across portions of central New Mexico.
Sunday will be a different story as low level moisture surges
northwestward tonight. Still the far northwest gets left out Sunday,
with low level dry air remaining in place and the upper high
building back over the Four Corners.

NAM suggesting that as the upper high over the Four Corners draws in
dry air aloft from the northeast Monday...convection will be limited
to the northern mountains and far west Monday afternoon and evening.
GFS keeps dry air aloft farther southeast and keeps most mountain
areas active. NAM struggles beyond 36 hours so suspect the GFS may
be more on track with upper level moisture placement next week. GFS
keeps the upper high centered near the Four Corners and keeps
daily rounds of afternoon and evening convection for most areas.

Ventilation rates will remain in the fair to excellent range through
mid week.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 252343 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
543 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
Numerous tsra stretching from near KCAO south to KTCC and east of
KROW will deliver high impact bursts of heavy rain and strong
winds thru 03Z. Activity expected to taper to a larger area of
rain w/ isold -tsra thru much of the night east of the central mt
chain. Gap winds expected to push thru the RGV later this evening
and some storms may fire up along the boundary. Thick clouds will
persist much of the night for central and eastern NM. Very rich
moisture will settle into NM Sunday and unstable air will lead to
significant coverage of -tsra by early to mid day. Any area that
takes a direct hit will see very heavy rain, strong winds, and
frequent lightning.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...346 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure center aloft will become less distinct into early
Sunday then reform near to a little west of the four corners
thereafter, remaining in or very near that location through at
least midweek next week. Daytime temperatures will ease back to
near even a few degrees below seasonal normals. Moisture will be
replenished to a fair degree across west central and northwest New
Mexico over the next 48 hours increasing shower and thunderstorm
chances there, more so starting Monday than Sunday. Elsewhere it
should be sufficient for daily rounds of afternoon and evening
showers and storms, generally initiating over the higher terrain
then drifting into the lower elevations. Southeast sections of
the state will likely see lower chances for rain, especially
starting Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
After what looked to be a quite moist start to the day across the
nw third to half of the state and thinking that the fcst models
had underestimated rain chances there, it looks as though the
combination of the higher lvl heating-reducing clouds
accompanying the very noticeable moist plume aloft and the lower
moisture levels below that did the fcst models proud, indeed
shutting off convection so far there. This trend to continue into
tonight and begin to change Sun and more so Mon as deeper moisture
sloshes into that part of the state.

High pressure aloft will re-center itself near to a little west
of the Four Corners thereafter, remaining in or very near that
location through at least midweek next week. Daytime temps will
ease back to near even a few degrees below seasonal normals.
With the aforementioned moisture influx into west central and
northwest New Mexico over the next 48 hours increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances there, more so starting Monday than Sunday,
and likely continuing there for much if not all of the week.
Sufficient to generous moisture lvls elsewhere will likely
produce daily rounds of afternoon and evening showers and storms,
generally initiating over the higher terrain then drifting into
the lower elevations, but se quarter to third of the state should
see less, perhaps next-to-no activity by mid to late week.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Active weather pattern to continue during the next seven days as the
North American Monsoon gets underway early. Upper level moisture
plume is more bark than bite across western areas. Most convective
activity today will be relegated to locations southeast of a line
from Glenwood to Las Vegas to Raton where low level moisture is
prevalent. Dry air in the low levels of the atmosphere has moved
into much of western and across portions of central New Mexico.
Sunday will be a different story as low level moisture surges
northwestward tonight. Still the far northwest gets left out Sunday,
with low level dry air remaining in place and the upper high
building back over the Four Corners.

NAM suggesting that as the upper high over the Four Corners draws in
dry air aloft from the northeast Monday...convection will be limited
to the northern mountains and far west Monday afternoon and evening.
GFS keeps dry air aloft farther southeast and keeps most mountain
areas active. NAM struggles beyond 36 hours so suspect the GFS may
be more on track with upper level moisture placement next week. GFS
keeps the upper high centered near the Four Corners and keeps
daily rounds of afternoon and evening convection for most areas.

Ventilation rates will remain in the fair to excellent range through
mid week.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 252146
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
346 PM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure center aloft will become less distinct into early
Sunday then reform near to a little west of the four corners
thereafter, remaining in or very near that location through at
least midweek next week. Daytime temperatures will ease back to
near even a few degrees below seasonal normals. Moisture will be
replenished to a fair degree across west central and northwest New
Mexico over the next 48 hours increasing shower and thunderstorm
chances there, more so starting Monday than Sunday. Elsewhere it
should be sufficient for daily rounds of afternoon and evening
showers and storms, generally initiating over the higher terrain
then drifting into the lower elevations. Southeast sections of
the state will likely see lower chances for rain, especially
starting Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
After what looked to be a quite moist start to the day across the
nw third to half of the state and thinking that the fcst models
had underestimated rain chances there, it looks as though the
combination of the higher lvl heating-reducing clouds
accompanying the very noticeable moist plume aloft and the lower
moisture levels below that did the fcst models proud, indeed
shutting off convection so far there. This trend to continue into
tonight and begin to change Sun and more so Mon as deeper moisture
sloshes into that part of the state.

High pressure aloft will re-center itself near to a little west
of the Four Corners thereafter, remaining in or very near that
location through at least midweek next week. Daytime temps will
ease back to near even a few degrees below seasonal normals.
With the aforementioned moisture influx into west central and
northwest New Mexico over the next 48 hours increasing shower and
thunderstorm chances there, more so starting Monday than Sunday,
and likely continuing there for much if not all of the week.
Sufficient to generous moisture lvls elsewhere will likely
produce daily rounds of afternoon and evening showers and storms,
generally initiating over the higher terrain then drifting into
the lower elevations, but se quarter to third of the state should
see less, perhaps next-to-no activity by mid to late week.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Active weather pattern to continue during the next seven days as the
North American Monsoon gets underway early. Upper level moisture
plume is more bark than bite across western areas. Most convective
activity today will be relegated to locations southeast of a line
from Glenwood to Las Vegas to Raton where low level moisture is
prevalent. Dry air in the low levels of the atmosphere has moved
into much of western and across portions of central New Mexico.
Sunday will be a different story as low level moisture surges
northwestward tonight. Still the far northwest gets left out Sunday,
with low level dry air remaining in place and the upper high
building back over the Four Corners.

NAM suggesting that as the upper high over the Four Corners draws in
dry air aloft from the northeast Monday...convection will be limited
to the northern mountains and far west Monday afternoon and evening.
GFS keeps dry air aloft farther southeast and keeps most mountain
areas active. NAM struggles beyond 36 hours so suspect the GFS may
be more on track with upper level moisture placement next week. GFS
keeps the upper high centered near the Four Corners and keeps
daily rounds of afternoon and evening convection for most areas.

Ventilation rates will remain in the fair to excellent range through
mid week.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
East slope areas of the central mountain chain from near KRTN to
KLVS, K4MY, K4CR and KSRR will serve as the initial -tsra
development areas early this afternoon before convection expands
east and north. Models still indicating the potential for a line
of moderate to strong thunderstorms to develop in a line from near
KCAO swwd to KTCC and KSRR with MVFR impacts possible. A
potentially strong convective outflow/canyon wind from the east
will likely push into the RGV after 02Z Sunday w/ gusts up to
35kt at KABQ overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  61  95  63  94 /   5  10  10  20
Dulce...........................  50  88  50  88 /  10  20  20  20
Cuba............................  56  86  55  83 /  10  40  30  40
Gallup..........................  53  91  55  88 /  10  10  20  20
El Morro........................  51  84  52  83 /  10  30  30  30
Grants..........................  53  87  54  85 /  10  30  20  30
Quemado.........................  58  86  56  85 /  10  30  40  30
Glenwood........................  65  92  64  89 /  40  40  30  40
Chama...........................  48  81  48  80 /  20  30  30  30
Los Alamos......................  59  84  57  83 /  20  30  30  30
Pecos...........................  56  80  55  80 /  30  50  50  40
Cerro/Questa....................  52  78  50  80 /  30  40  30  30
Red River.......................  47  71  46  72 /  30  60  40  40
Angel Fire......................  43  74  43  77 /  30  60  40  40
Taos............................  51  83  50  84 /  30  30  30  30
Mora............................  52  77  52  77 /  30  60  40  40
Espanola........................  61  88  59  87 /  20  20  40  20
Santa Fe........................  59  81  57  81 /  30  50  40  40
Santa Fe Airport................  60  86  58  85 /  30  30  40  20
Albuquerque Foothills...........  65  87  63  86 /  20  30  30  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  67  89  66  88 /  20  20  30  20
Albuquerque Valley..............  65  91  66  90 /  20  20  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  66  91  65  89 /  20  20  30  20
Los Lunas.......................  66  91  65  89 /  20  20  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  66  90  64  89 /  20  20  30  20
Socorro.........................  67  92  65  89 /  20  20  30  20
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  61  82  58  81 /  30  40  50  30
Tijeras.........................  62  86  60  84 /  30  40  50  30
Moriarty/Estancia...............  58  82  57  81 /  30  40  50  30
Clines Corners..................  58  80  56  78 /  40  50  50  30
Gran Quivira....................  60  82  58  80 /  30  40  60  30
Carrizozo.......................  62  85  60  83 /  30  40  50  30
Ruidoso.........................  55  77  55  74 /  40  50  50  40
Capulin.........................  56  80  55  80 /  50  40  20  30
Raton...........................  55  84  54  84 /  40  40  20  30
Springer........................  58  84  56  86 /  40  30  20  30
Las Vegas.......................  54  80  53  80 /  30  50  30  30
Clayton.........................  63  86  61  87 /  40  40  20  20
Roy.............................  60  82  59  83 /  40  50  20  30
Conchas.........................  67  88  65  88 /  40  50  20  20
Santa Rosa......................  65  88  63  87 /  40  40  40  20
Tucumcari.......................  66  90  65  89 /  40  40  40  20
Clovis..........................  65  87  64  86 /  30  30  50  20
Portales........................  66  88  65  87 /  30  20  40  20
Fort Sumner.....................  66  88  65  87 /  30  40  50  20
Roswell.........................  68  92  68  89 /  30  20  20  20
Picacho.........................  63  85  62  82 /  30  40  40  20
Elk.............................  59  80  59  77 /  30  40  30  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

43




000
FXUS65 KABQ 251756 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1156 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
East slope areas of the central mountain chain from near KRTN to
KLVS, K4MY, K4CR and KSRR will serve as the initial -tsra
development areas early this afternoon before convection expands
east and north. Models still indicating the potential for a line
of moderate to strong thunderstorms to develop in a line from near
KCAO swwd to KTCC and KSRR with MVFR impacts possible. A
potentially strong convective outflow/canyon wind from the east
will likely push into the RGV after 02Z Sunday w/ gusts up to
35kt at KABQ overnight.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will remain located over or close to New
Mexico through the weekend and all of next week. Daytime
temperatures will taper off to near normal or even a few degrees
below average. Moisture will be sufficient for daily rounds of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, generally igniting
over the higher terrain then drifting into the lower elevations.
The far northwest and southeast sections of the state will likely
see the lowest chances for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure aloft will continue to dominate NM for the foreseeable
future, although the center of circulation will wobble around the
region. High temperatures will gradually taper off to near average
or even a few degrees below, starting on Sunday. Overnight lows will
continue to be above average through the end of next week.

Mostly showers still showing up on radar at the moment, with a broad
swath of clouds stretching from southwest to northeast over the
region. The previously anticipated drying for the northwest and west
central today could still happen as the upper low circulation
vicinity of the Big Bend and trough over the northern Rockies shift
orientation of the plume of cloudiness over the state. Somewhat
skeptical though given what appears to be a slight nwd movement of
the upper low the last few hours. However, latest RAP and HRRR don`t
predict precipitation generally west of the contdvd through this
afternoon. Otherwise, the anticipated surface boundary may reach far
ne NM by late afternoon, then slide south and westward with a gusty
east wind eventually pushing into the KSAF and KABQ areas. SPC Day 1
outlook has continued the inclusion of a portion of ne NM in the
marginal area, so look for a few strong to severe storms there.

By Sunday or Monday, the Big Bend low may result in an increase in
moisture for eastern NM. Another weak surface front may affect the
northeast and east central around the middle of next week, with the
upper high center near the Four Corners. The GFS depicts a stronger
front next Saturday. While there will be some changes in steering
flow, and sloshing around of moisture, leading to daily variations
of areal coverage, it looks like storms are here to stay.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An active weather pattern will continue through the next week and
beyond, with a very moist and unstable atmosphere. This monsoonish
looking weather regime will result in widespread showers and
thunderstorms each day through the forecast period.

Precipitable water values remain very high and will only get higher
the next couple of days...perhaps reaching record high levels for
late June. Plenty of instability as well will combine to produce a
decent crop of storms today, with the best chances from southwest to
northeast. Only isolated activity is expected over far northwest and
southeast zones. The drier air push into the northwest looks weaker
and weaker with each model run. A closed low over Mexico is spinning
slowly to the northwest and will become a factor starting Sunday,
adding even more low level moisture to the state. In addition, a
back door cold front will drop into the northeast today and press
south and west tonight. Moderate east canyon winds are likely into
the Rio Grande Valley tonight. All of these factors mean a very
active day is in store Sunday across the CWA.

A ridge of high pressure will build to our west early next week
while the Mexico low pressure system reaches west TX and southern
NM. This general east to west flow will continue to supply the state
with deep moisture and strong instability. Thus Monday and Tuesday
will remain very active.

Moisture will recycle Wednesday with another large crop of storms,
although a bit less than earlier in the week. Another back door
front may enter the east Wednesday night with a fresh batch of low
level moisture. This will set the state for another widespread round
of showers and storms Thursday, despite the upper high becoming
centered over NM. The high will drift south late next week and
weekend. Moisture will stream north from Sonora into AZ then NM,
keeping the weather unsettled.

&&

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

43




000
FXUS65 KABQ 251756 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1156 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
East slope areas of the central mountain chain from near KRTN to
KLVS, K4MY, K4CR and KSRR will serve as the initial -tsra
development areas early this afternoon before convection expands
east and north. Models still indicating the potential for a line
of moderate to strong thunderstorms to develop in a line from near
KCAO swwd to KTCC and KSRR with MVFR impacts possible. A
potentially strong convective outflow/canyon wind from the east
will likely push into the RGV after 02Z Sunday w/ gusts up to
35kt at KABQ overnight.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...340 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will remain located over or close to New
Mexico through the weekend and all of next week. Daytime
temperatures will taper off to near normal or even a few degrees
below average. Moisture will be sufficient for daily rounds of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, generally igniting
over the higher terrain then drifting into the lower elevations.
The far northwest and southeast sections of the state will likely
see the lowest chances for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure aloft will continue to dominate NM for the foreseeable
future, although the center of circulation will wobble around the
region. High temperatures will gradually taper off to near average
or even a few degrees below, starting on Sunday. Overnight lows will
continue to be above average through the end of next week.

Mostly showers still showing up on radar at the moment, with a broad
swath of clouds stretching from southwest to northeast over the
region. The previously anticipated drying for the northwest and west
central today could still happen as the upper low circulation
vicinity of the Big Bend and trough over the northern Rockies shift
orientation of the plume of cloudiness over the state. Somewhat
skeptical though given what appears to be a slight nwd movement of
the upper low the last few hours. However, latest RAP and HRRR don`t
predict precipitation generally west of the contdvd through this
afternoon. Otherwise, the anticipated surface boundary may reach far
ne NM by late afternoon, then slide south and westward with a gusty
east wind eventually pushing into the KSAF and KABQ areas. SPC Day 1
outlook has continued the inclusion of a portion of ne NM in the
marginal area, so look for a few strong to severe storms there.

By Sunday or Monday, the Big Bend low may result in an increase in
moisture for eastern NM. Another weak surface front may affect the
northeast and east central around the middle of next week, with the
upper high center near the Four Corners. The GFS depicts a stronger
front next Saturday. While there will be some changes in steering
flow, and sloshing around of moisture, leading to daily variations
of areal coverage, it looks like storms are here to stay.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An active weather pattern will continue through the next week and
beyond, with a very moist and unstable atmosphere. This monsoonish
looking weather regime will result in widespread showers and
thunderstorms each day through the forecast period.

Precipitable water values remain very high and will only get higher
the next couple of days...perhaps reaching record high levels for
late June. Plenty of instability as well will combine to produce a
decent crop of storms today, with the best chances from southwest to
northeast. Only isolated activity is expected over far northwest and
southeast zones. The drier air push into the northwest looks weaker
and weaker with each model run. A closed low over Mexico is spinning
slowly to the northwest and will become a factor starting Sunday,
adding even more low level moisture to the state. In addition, a
back door cold front will drop into the northeast today and press
south and west tonight. Moderate east canyon winds are likely into
the Rio Grande Valley tonight. All of these factors mean a very
active day is in store Sunday across the CWA.

A ridge of high pressure will build to our west early next week
while the Mexico low pressure system reaches west TX and southern
NM. This general east to west flow will continue to supply the state
with deep moisture and strong instability. Thus Monday and Tuesday
will remain very active.

Moisture will recycle Wednesday with another large crop of storms,
although a bit less than earlier in the week. Another back door
front may enter the east Wednesday night with a fresh batch of low
level moisture. This will set the state for another widespread round
of showers and storms Thursday, despite the upper high becoming
centered over NM. The high will drift south late next week and
weekend. Moisture will stream north from Sonora into AZ then NM,
keeping the weather unsettled.

&&

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

43




000
FXUS65 KABQ 250951
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
340 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will remain located over or close to New
Mexico through the weekend and all of next week. Daytime
temperatures will taper off to near normal or even a few degrees
below average. Moisture will be sufficient for daily rounds of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, generally igniting
over the higher terrain then drifting into the lower elevations.
The far northwest and southeast sections of the state will likely
see the lowest chances for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure aloft will continue to dominate NM for the foreseeable
future, although the center of circulation will wobble around the
region. High temperatures will gradually taper off to near average
or even a few degrees below, starting on Sunday. Overnight lows will
continue to be above average through the end of next week.

Mostly showers still showing up on radar at the moment, with a broad
swath of clouds stretching from southwest to northeast over the
region. The previously anticipated drying for the northwest and west
central today could still happen as the upper low circulation
vicinity of the Big Bend and trough over the northern Rockies shift
orientation of the plume of cloudiness over the state. Somewhat
skeptical though given what appears to be a slight nwd movement of
the upper low the last few hours. However, latest RAP and HRRR don`t
predict precipitation generally west of the contdvd through this
afternoon. Otherwise, the anticipated surface boundary may reach far
ne NM by late afternoon, then slide south and westward with a gusty
east wind eventually pushing into the KSAF and KABQ areas. SPC Day 1
outlook has continued the inclusion of a portion of ne NM in the
marginal area, so look for a few strong to severe storms there.

By Sunday or Monday, the Big Bend low may result in an increase in
moisture for eastern NM. Another weak surface front may affect the
northeast and east central around the middle of next week, with the
upper high center near the Four Corners. The GFS depicts a stronger
front next Saturday. While there will be some changes in steering
flow, and sloshing around of moisture, leading to daily variations
of areal coverage, it looks like storms are here to stay.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An active weather pattern will continue through the next week and
beyond, with a very moist and unstable atmosphere. This monsoonish
looking weather regime will result in widespread showers and
thunderstorms each day through the forecast period.

Precipitable water values remain very high and will only get higher
the next couple of days...perhaps reaching record high levels for
late June. Plenty of instability as well will combine to produce a
decent crop of storms today, with the best chances from southwest to
northeast. Only isolated activity is expected over far northwest and
southeast zones. The drier air push into the northwest looks weaker
and weaker with each model run. A closed low over Mexico is spinning
slowly to the northwest and will become a factor starting Sunday,
adding even more low level moisture to the state. In addition, a
back door cold front will drop into the northeast today and press
south and west tonight. Moderate east canyon winds are likely into
the Rio Grande Valley tonight. All of these factors mean a very
active day is in store Sunday across the CWA.

A ridge of high pressure will build to our west early next week
while the Mexico low pressure system reaches west TX and southern
NM. This general east to west flow will continue to supply the state
with deep moisture and strong instability. Thus Monday and Tuesday
will remain very active.

Moisture will recycle Wednesday with another large crop of storms,
although a bit less than earlier in the week. Another back door
front may enter the east Wednesday night with a fresh batch of low
level moisture. This will set the state for another widespread round
of showers and storms Thursday, despite the upper high becoming
centered over NM. The high will drift south late next week and
weekend. Moisture will stream north from Sonora into AZ then NM,
keeping the weather unsettled.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
-Shra are redeveloping at 05Z along an area from near KONM and KSRR
northeast to KCQC, KLVS, and west of KTCC. This activity is expected
to taper off aft 09Z with mainly light rain and VFR cigs as low as
090. Thick mid/high level cloud cover around sunrise is expected to
burn off over central and western NM but linger over the high
plains. East slopes areas from near KRTN to KLVS, KCQC, and K4CR
will serve as the initial battleground for -tsra around 20Z before
expanding eastward. There is good potential for a line of +tsra to
stretch from near KCAO to KTCC and KLVS by 00Z with MVFR impacts
possible. A potentially strong convective outflow/gap wind from the
east may enter the RGV aft 02Z w/ gusts up to 35kt.

Guyer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  93  61  95  63 /  10   5  10  10
Dulce...........................  87  49  88  50 /  20  10  20  20
Cuba............................  86  55  86  54 /  20  10  40  30
Gallup..........................  88  54  91  57 /  10  10  10  20
El Morro........................  84  52  84  53 /  20  10  30  30
Grants..........................  85  55  87  56 /  20  10  30  20
Quemado.........................  83  58  86  57 /  20  10  30  30
Glenwood........................  93  65  92  64 /  30  40  40  30
Chama...........................  82  48  81  47 /  30  20  30  30
Los Alamos......................  86  59  84  57 /  30  20  30  30
Pecos...........................  86  55  80  54 /  50  30  50  40
Cerro/Questa....................  80  52  78  49 /  40  30  40  30
Red River.......................  75  47  71  45 /  50  30  60  40
Angel Fire......................  77  42  74  42 /  50  30  60  40
Taos............................  82  51  83  50 /  30  30  30  30
Mora............................  81  52  77  51 /  50  30  60  40
Espanola........................  92  61  88  59 /  10  20  20  40
Santa Fe........................  88  59  81  57 /  40  30  50  40
Santa Fe Airport................  91  60  86  58 /  20  30  30  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  91  66  87  63 /  20  20  30  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  93  68  89  66 /  20  20  20  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  94  67  91  66 /  20  20  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  94  66  91  64 /  20  20  20  30
Los Lunas.......................  94  66  91  65 /  20  20  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  93  66  90  64 /  20  20  20  30
Socorro.........................  96  67  92  65 /  20  20  20  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  87  61  82  58 /  30  30  40  40
Tijeras.........................  89  62  86  60 /  30  30  40  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  90  58  82  56 /  30  30  40  30
Clines Corners..................  86  58  80  56 /  40  40  40  30
Gran Quivira....................  89  60  82  58 /  30  30  40  40
Carrizozo.......................  91  62  85  60 /  30  30  40  40
Ruidoso.........................  81  55  77  54 /  40  40  50  40
Capulin.........................  86  56  80  55 /  40  50  40  20
Raton...........................  87  54  84  54 /  40  40  40  20
Springer........................  87  58  84  56 /  40  40  30  20
Las Vegas.......................  86  54  80  53 /  40  30  40  30
Clayton.........................  91  62  86  61 /  40  40  30  20
Roy.............................  90  60  82  59 /  40  40  40  20
Conchas.........................  95  67  88  65 /  40  40  40  20
Santa Rosa......................  96  64  88  63 /  30  40  40  30
Tucumcari.......................  99  66  90  65 /  20  40  30  20
Clovis..........................  94  65  87  64 /  10  30  30  30
Portales........................  95  66  88  65 /  10  30  20  30
Fort Sumner.....................  95  66  88  65 /  20  30  40  30
Roswell.........................  97  68  92  67 /  10  30  20  20
Picacho.........................  92  62  85  61 /  20  30  40  30
Elk.............................  84  59  80  58 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 250951
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
340 AM MDT SAT JUN 25 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure aloft will remain located over or close to New
Mexico through the weekend and all of next week. Daytime
temperatures will taper off to near normal or even a few degrees
below average. Moisture will be sufficient for daily rounds of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms, generally igniting
over the higher terrain then drifting into the lower elevations.
The far northwest and southeast sections of the state will likely
see the lowest chances for rain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

High pressure aloft will continue to dominate NM for the foreseeable
future, although the center of circulation will wobble around the
region. High temperatures will gradually taper off to near average
or even a few degrees below, starting on Sunday. Overnight lows will
continue to be above average through the end of next week.

Mostly showers still showing up on radar at the moment, with a broad
swath of clouds stretching from southwest to northeast over the
region. The previously anticipated drying for the northwest and west
central today could still happen as the upper low circulation
vicinity of the Big Bend and trough over the northern Rockies shift
orientation of the plume of cloudiness over the state. Somewhat
skeptical though given what appears to be a slight nwd movement of
the upper low the last few hours. However, latest RAP and HRRR don`t
predict precipitation generally west of the contdvd through this
afternoon. Otherwise, the anticipated surface boundary may reach far
ne NM by late afternoon, then slide south and westward with a gusty
east wind eventually pushing into the KSAF and KABQ areas. SPC Day 1
outlook has continued the inclusion of a portion of ne NM in the
marginal area, so look for a few strong to severe storms there.

By Sunday or Monday, the Big Bend low may result in an increase in
moisture for eastern NM. Another weak surface front may affect the
northeast and east central around the middle of next week, with the
upper high center near the Four Corners. The GFS depicts a stronger
front next Saturday. While there will be some changes in steering
flow, and sloshing around of moisture, leading to daily variations
of areal coverage, it looks like storms are here to stay.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

An active weather pattern will continue through the next week and
beyond, with a very moist and unstable atmosphere. This monsoonish
looking weather regime will result in widespread showers and
thunderstorms each day through the forecast period.

Precipitable water values remain very high and will only get higher
the next couple of days...perhaps reaching record high levels for
late June. Plenty of instability as well will combine to produce a
decent crop of storms today, with the best chances from southwest to
northeast. Only isolated activity is expected over far northwest and
southeast zones. The drier air push into the northwest looks weaker
and weaker with each model run. A closed low over Mexico is spinning
slowly to the northwest and will become a factor starting Sunday,
adding even more low level moisture to the state. In addition, a
back door cold front will drop into the northeast today and press
south and west tonight. Moderate east canyon winds are likely into
the Rio Grande Valley tonight. All of these factors mean a very
active day is in store Sunday across the CWA.

A ridge of high pressure will build to our west early next week
while the Mexico low pressure system reaches west TX and southern
NM. This general east to west flow will continue to supply the state
with deep moisture and strong instability. Thus Monday and Tuesday
will remain very active.

Moisture will recycle Wednesday with another large crop of storms,
although a bit less than earlier in the week. Another back door
front may enter the east Wednesday night with a fresh batch of low
level moisture. This will set the state for another widespread round
of showers and storms Thursday, despite the upper high becoming
centered over NM. The high will drift south late next week and
weekend. Moisture will stream north from Sonora into AZ then NM,
keeping the weather unsettled.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
-Shra are redeveloping at 05Z along an area from near KONM and KSRR
northeast to KCQC, KLVS, and west of KTCC. This activity is expected
to taper off aft 09Z with mainly light rain and VFR cigs as low as
090. Thick mid/high level cloud cover around sunrise is expected to
burn off over central and western NM but linger over the high
plains. East slopes areas from near KRTN to KLVS, KCQC, and K4CR
will serve as the initial battleground for -tsra around 20Z before
expanding eastward. There is good potential for a line of +tsra to
stretch from near KCAO to KTCC and KLVS by 00Z with MVFR impacts
possible. A potentially strong convective outflow/gap wind from the
east may enter the RGV aft 02Z w/ gusts up to 35kt.

Guyer

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  93  61  95  63 /  10   5  10  10
Dulce...........................  87  49  88  50 /  20  10  20  20
Cuba............................  86  55  86  54 /  20  10  40  30
Gallup..........................  88  54  91  57 /  10  10  10  20
El Morro........................  84  52  84  53 /  20  10  30  30
Grants..........................  85  55  87  56 /  20  10  30  20
Quemado.........................  83  58  86  57 /  20  10  30  30
Glenwood........................  93  65  92  64 /  30  40  40  30
Chama...........................  82  48  81  47 /  30  20  30  30
Los Alamos......................  86  59  84  57 /  30  20  30  30
Pecos...........................  86  55  80  54 /  50  30  50  40
Cerro/Questa....................  80  52  78  49 /  40  30  40  30
Red River.......................  75  47  71  45 /  50  30  60  40
Angel Fire......................  77  42  74  42 /  50  30  60  40
Taos............................  82  51  83  50 /  30  30  30  30
Mora............................  81  52  77  51 /  50  30  60  40
Espanola........................  92  61  88  59 /  10  20  20  40
Santa Fe........................  88  59  81  57 /  40  30  50  40
Santa Fe Airport................  91  60  86  58 /  20  30  30  30
Albuquerque Foothills...........  91  66  87  63 /  20  20  30  30
Albuquerque Heights.............  93  68  89  66 /  20  20  20  30
Albuquerque Valley..............  94  67  91  66 /  20  20  20  20
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  94  66  91  64 /  20  20  20  30
Los Lunas.......................  94  66  91  65 /  20  20  20  20
Rio Rancho......................  93  66  90  64 /  20  20  20  30
Socorro.........................  96  67  92  65 /  20  20  20  30
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  87  61  82  58 /  30  30  40  40
Tijeras.........................  89  62  86  60 /  30  30  40  40
Moriarty/Estancia...............  90  58  82  56 /  30  30  40  30
Clines Corners..................  86  58  80  56 /  40  40  40  30
Gran Quivira....................  89  60  82  58 /  30  30  40  40
Carrizozo.......................  91  62  85  60 /  30  30  40  40
Ruidoso.........................  81  55  77  54 /  40  40  50  40
Capulin.........................  86  56  80  55 /  40  50  40  20
Raton...........................  87  54  84  54 /  40  40  40  20
Springer........................  87  58  84  56 /  40  40  30  20
Las Vegas.......................  86  54  80  53 /  40  30  40  30
Clayton.........................  91  62  86  61 /  40  40  30  20
Roy.............................  90  60  82  59 /  40  40  40  20
Conchas.........................  95  67  88  65 /  40  40  40  20
Santa Rosa......................  96  64  88  63 /  30  40  40  30
Tucumcari.......................  99  66  90  65 /  20  40  30  20
Clovis..........................  94  65  87  64 /  10  30  30  30
Portales........................  95  66  88  65 /  10  30  20  30
Fort Sumner.....................  95  66  88  65 /  20  30  40  30
Roswell.........................  97  68  92  67 /  10  30  20  20
Picacho.........................  92  62  85  61 /  20  30  40  30
Elk.............................  84  59  80  58 /  40  30  40  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 250545 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1145 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
-Shra are redeveloping at 05Z along an area from near KONM and
KSRR northeast to KCQC, KLVS, and west of KTCC. This activity is
expected to taper off aft 09Z with mainly light rain and VFR cigs
as low as 090. Thick mid/high level cloud cover around sunrise is
expected to burn off over central and western NM but linger over
the high plains. East slopes areas from near KRTN to KLVS, KCQC,
and K4CR will serve as the initial battleground for -tsra around
20Z before expanding eastward. There is good potential for a line
of +tsra to stretch from near KCAO to KTCC and KLVS by 00Z with
MVFR impacts possible. A potentially strong convective outflow/gap
wind from the east may enter the RGV aft 02Z w/ gusts up to 35kt.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...239 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will continue to be the main weather
feature for New Mexico for the next week. Temperatures will be
going back to near seasonal normals with slightly below normal over
the southeastern portions of the forecast area as increasing cloud
cover this week will keep temperatures slightly cooler than normal.
Enough moisture will be entering the state to keep chances of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
for most of the next seven days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will continue to be the dominate feature over the
next week for New Mexico as the center of the ridge moves westward
to recenter over the Four Corners by Monday. While the ridge is in
transition, a deep upper low moving along the US/Canadian border
will bring some upper energy into New Mexico, serving as dynamic
support for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Models
differ in location of this energy, but in general some sort of
deformation zone will setup over NM along a southwest to northwest
line through the center of the state later today and persist
through Sunday afternoon.

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows widespread moisture over
the state with most stations seeing dew points in the mid to
upper 40s with some locations in the southeast in the mid 50s.
Additionally, a fairly impressive looking eastward moving closed
low over northeast Mexico will help advect more low-level moisture
in from the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. The combination
of these factors should lead to fairly wide coverage of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. Convection is
expected to start over higher terrain and propagate into the lower
elevations during the evening through Sunday. Saturday afternoon
and evening appears to be the best day for showers and
thunderstorms with the deformation zone at its maximum and
precipitable water values of near 1.0" for the eastern half of the
state. As the deformation zone begins to diminish on Sunday,
precipitation chances decrease somewhat but a chance of
showers/thunderstorms will remain over most of the area.

As the high settles in place over the Four Corners for the
remainder of the work week, temperatures will remain near normal.
Gulf moisture will continue to enter the region through the
week, which will help to keep afternoon showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast through the end of the work week.

54/Fontenot
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A pre-monsoonal weather regime is in place...with a potential
early start to the 2016 monsoon looming. PWATs were once again
well above normal this morning and are forecast to continue above
normal across all but the northwest through Sunday. PWATs are
actually forecast to increase more Saturday night into Sunday as
rich Gulf moisture advects northwest to near the Continental
Divide. Coverage of wetting storms will decrease Saturday near and
west of the divide where hot...dry and unstable conditions will
reside...but will trend up Sunday which looks like the day with
the best wetting potential this forecast cycle for much of the
area.

Early next week...the upper high will strengthen over the Great
Basin...extending a ridge axis southeast across the Four Corners
into New Mexico. However...more than sufficient moisture will remain
in place for daily rounds of wetting storms. High temperatures will
be closer to normal for a change thanks to additional clouds and
potential rain-cooling. Humidity recover will continue to improve
across much of the area and be good to excellent...except for some
pockets of fair recovery across the northwest and Rio Grande Valley.

Toward the later half of next week...the upper high is forecast to
shift south of the area...steering moisture over western and
northern New Mexico where the best chances for wetting rain will
reside. Otherwise...not much to put our finger on in terms of
trends.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 250545 AAB
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
1145 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
-Shra are redeveloping at 05Z along an area from near KONM and
KSRR northeast to KCQC, KLVS, and west of KTCC. This activity is
expected to taper off aft 09Z with mainly light rain and VFR cigs
as low as 090. Thick mid/high level cloud cover around sunrise is
expected to burn off over central and western NM but linger over
the high plains. East slopes areas from near KRTN to KLVS, KCQC,
and K4CR will serve as the initial battleground for -tsra around
20Z before expanding eastward. There is good potential for a line
of +tsra to stretch from near KCAO to KTCC and KLVS by 00Z with
MVFR impacts possible. A potentially strong convective outflow/gap
wind from the east may enter the RGV aft 02Z w/ gusts up to 35kt.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...239 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will continue to be the main weather
feature for New Mexico for the next week. Temperatures will be
going back to near seasonal normals with slightly below normal over
the southeastern portions of the forecast area as increasing cloud
cover this week will keep temperatures slightly cooler than normal.
Enough moisture will be entering the state to keep chances of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
for most of the next seven days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will continue to be the dominate feature over the
next week for New Mexico as the center of the ridge moves westward
to recenter over the Four Corners by Monday. While the ridge is in
transition, a deep upper low moving along the US/Canadian border
will bring some upper energy into New Mexico, serving as dynamic
support for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Models
differ in location of this energy, but in general some sort of
deformation zone will setup over NM along a southwest to northwest
line through the center of the state later today and persist
through Sunday afternoon.

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows widespread moisture over
the state with most stations seeing dew points in the mid to
upper 40s with some locations in the southeast in the mid 50s.
Additionally, a fairly impressive looking eastward moving closed
low over northeast Mexico will help advect more low-level moisture
in from the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. The combination
of these factors should lead to fairly wide coverage of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. Convection is
expected to start over higher terrain and propagate into the lower
elevations during the evening through Sunday. Saturday afternoon
and evening appears to be the best day for showers and
thunderstorms with the deformation zone at its maximum and
precipitable water values of near 1.0" for the eastern half of the
state. As the deformation zone begins to diminish on Sunday,
precipitation chances decrease somewhat but a chance of
showers/thunderstorms will remain over most of the area.

As the high settles in place over the Four Corners for the
remainder of the work week, temperatures will remain near normal.
Gulf moisture will continue to enter the region through the
week, which will help to keep afternoon showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast through the end of the work week.

54/Fontenot
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A pre-monsoonal weather regime is in place...with a potential
early start to the 2016 monsoon looming. PWATs were once again
well above normal this morning and are forecast to continue above
normal across all but the northwest through Sunday. PWATs are
actually forecast to increase more Saturday night into Sunday as
rich Gulf moisture advects northwest to near the Continental
Divide. Coverage of wetting storms will decrease Saturday near and
west of the divide where hot...dry and unstable conditions will
reside...but will trend up Sunday which looks like the day with
the best wetting potential this forecast cycle for much of the
area.

Early next week...the upper high will strengthen over the Great
Basin...extending a ridge axis southeast across the Four Corners
into New Mexico. However...more than sufficient moisture will remain
in place for daily rounds of wetting storms. High temperatures will
be closer to normal for a change thanks to additional clouds and
potential rain-cooling. Humidity recover will continue to improve
across much of the area and be good to excellent...except for some
pockets of fair recovery across the northwest and Rio Grande Valley.

Toward the later half of next week...the upper high is forecast to
shift south of the area...steering moisture over western and
northern New Mexico where the best chances for wetting rain will
reside. Otherwise...not much to put our finger on in terms of
trends.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 242343 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
543 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
-Shra/tsra along the central mt chain and the RGV this evening
will produce gusty and erratic outflow winds and some bldu under
the stronger cores. High based activity will likely keep things
at VFR. Activity will propogate eastward across the plains thru
the evening. These storms are wetter and may produce brief MVFR
cigs/vsbys thru 03z. Mid level cloud decks near 100 will linger
most of the night around central/eastern NM before clearing aft
sunrise Saturday. Another round of storms will develop Saturday
with greatest focus from the central mt chain east along the I40
corridor.

Guyer

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...239 PM MDT FRI JUN 24 2016...
.SYNOPSIS...
A ridge of high pressure will continue to be the main weather
feature for New Mexico for the next week. Temperatures will be
going back to near seasonal normals with slightly below normal over
the southeastern portions of the forecast area as increasing cloud
cover this week will keep temperatures slightly cooler than normal.
Enough moisture will be entering the state to keep chances of
afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms in the forecast
for most of the next seven days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure will continue to be the dominate feature over the
next week for New Mexico as the center of the ridge moves westward
to recenter over the Four Corners by Monday. While the ridge is in
transition, a deep upper low moving along the US/Canadian border
will bring some upper energy into New Mexico, serving as dynamic
support for showers and thunderstorms through the weekend. Models
differ in location of this energy, but in general some sort of
deformation zone will setup over NM along a southwest to northwest
line through the center of the state later today and persist
through Sunday afternoon.

Water vapor imagery this afternoon shows widespread moisture over
the state with most stations seeing dew points in the mid to
upper 40s with some locations in the southeast in the mid 50s.
Additionally, a fairly impressive looking eastward moving closed
low over northeast Mexico will help advect more low-level moisture
in from the Gulf of Mexico through the weekend. The combination
of these factors should lead to fairly wide coverage of afternoon
showers and thunderstorms over the weekend. Convection is
expected to start over higher terrain and propagate into the lower
elevations during the evening through Sunday. Saturday afternoon
and evening appears to be the best day for showers and
thunderstorms with the deformation zone at its maximum and
precipitable water values of near 1.0" for the eastern half of the
state. As the deformation zone begins to diminish on Sunday,
precipitation chances decrease somewhat but a chance of
showers/thunderstorms will remain over most of the area.

As the high settles in place over the Four Corners for the
remainder of the work week, temperatures will remain near normal.
Gulf moisture will continue to enter the region through the
week, which will help to keep afternoon showers and thunderstorms
in the forecast through the end of the work week.

54/Fontenot
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A pre-monsoonal weather regime is in place...with a potential
early start to the 2016 monsoon looming. PWATs were once again
well above normal this morning and are forecast to continue above
normal across all but the northwest through Sunday. PWATs are
actually forecast to increase more Saturday night into Sunday as
rich Gulf moisture advects northwest to near the Continental
Divide. Coverage of wetting storms will decrease Saturday near and
west of the divide where hot...dry and unstable conditions will
reside...but will trend up Sunday which looks like the day with
the best wetting potential this forecast cycle for much of the
area.

Early next week...the upper high will strengthen over the Great
Basin...extending a ridge axis southeast across the Four Corners
into New Mexico. However...more than sufficient moisture will remain
in place for daily rounds of wetting storms. High temperatures will
be closer to normal for a change thanks to additional clouds and
potential rain-cooling. Humidity recover will continue to improve
across much of the area and be good to excellent...except for some
pockets of fair recovery across the northwest and Rio Grande Valley.

Toward the later half of next week...the upper high is forecast to
shift south of the area...steering moisture over western and
northern New Mexico where the best chances for wetting rain will
reside. Otherwise...not much to put our finger on in terms of
trends.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$




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