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000
FXUS65 KABQ 272232
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS PUSH OVER THE REGION. AS
ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPARTED THE STATE TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING...ANOTHER ONE IS CURRENTLY ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY IN NORTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER POTENT
DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE INTO CALIFORNIA BEFORE SLOWLY SPREADING OVER
NEW MEXICO. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS EXPECTED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SAN JUAN OR TUSAS MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER WHERE AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO FEET OF SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE...PRIMARILY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE EIGHT
THOUSAND FEET. RAIN WILL FALL IN LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THIS
WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT`S ANOTHER BUSY AND CHALLENGING FORECAST DAY IN
THE MIDDLE OF A BARRAGE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. NOT MUCH OF A
RESPITE OR LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING
BEFORE THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM STARTED SPREADING MORE BATCHES OF
SNOW INTO WETSERN NM. THIS LATTER DISTURBANCE IS A BIT MORE SUBTLE
LOOKING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMPARED TO ITS
PREDECESSOR...HOWEVER JET DYNAMICS ARE UNDERWAY AND STRENGTHENING
WITH LOTS OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT BEING DEPICTED BY FORECAST MODELS.
THIS SEEMS TO BE QUICKLY COMING TO FRUITION GIVEN LIGHT SNOW THAT
HAS ALREADY ENSUED AND STARTED AGAIN IN CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES.
FORECAST MODELS KEEP THIS DIVERGENCE ALOFT PEGGED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF NM TONIGHT...AND QPF IS GENEROUSLY
PAINTED BENEATH. HRRR MODEL IS ALSO QUITE GENEROUS WITH THIS TREND
WITH A FEW MESOSCALE BANDS OF SNOW BEING DEPICTED. THUS...FELT
PRUDENT TO SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY EXTEND ADVISORIES/WARNING
WESTWARD AND LONGER RESPECTIVELY. THESE AMENDMENTS WERE MADE AT
NOON AND WILL HOLD FOR NOW.

INTO SATURDAY THE DIVERGENCE SLOWLY DECREASES IN INTENSITY OVER NM
AND THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS BACKING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A LOW
TAKES SHAPE AND DIVES INTO CA. THIS SHOULD BEGIN A REDUCTION IN
THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN SOME LOWER ELEVATION
AREAS...REDUCTION BEING RELATIVE...WHILE OROGRAPHICS BECOME THE
MORE DOMINANT FORCING MECHANISM FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELEVATIONS
BELOW 7000 FEET WOULD ALSO OBSERVE A QUICK WARMING TREND AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE FORECAST
MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ON THIS
THOUGH...AS THE CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE...STUNTING THE
WARMING MORE THAN WHAT IS ADVERTISED BY MODELS. HAVE BUILT IN A
QUICK CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN THESE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS COULD BE A BIT PREMATURE AND
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. PRECIPITATION COULD ALSO BEGIN
TO TAKE ON A SHOWERY OR CONVECTIVE NATURE TO IT AS MODELS HAVE
LIFTED INDICES OF 0 TO -1C PROGGED OVER SOME NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD ONLY ADD TO SNOW
RATES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS/STATEMENTS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES DROP OFF SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED FOR AFOREMENTIONED REASONINGS.

THE PRECIPITATION REALLY FOCUSES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH FLOW
CONTINUING TO BACK SLIGHTLY MORE WHILE SPEEDS ALOFT INCREASE. THIS
WILL KEEP STEADY OROGRAPHIC FORCING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SOME PRONOUNCED PRECIPITATION SHADOWS
DOWNWIND OR NORTHEAST OF CHUSKAS AND OTHER TOPOGRAPHICAL BARRIERS.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL ALSO
KEEP THE WARMER AIR ADVECTING THIS WAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT`S LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT`S
READINGS WHILE SUNDAY`S HIGHS RISE ANOTHER 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
SATURDAY`S HIGHS. THIS WARMING TREND WILL SHIFT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS UPWARD TO 7500 TO 8500 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS WILL LIMIT THE SPATIAL AREA OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THE
PEAKS ABOVE THIS THRESHOLD WILL STILL SEE REMARKABLE SNOW
AMOUNTS...LIKELY ONE TO THREE FEET ON MANY PEAKS ABOVE 8500 FEET
AND CLOSER TO FOUR FEET NEAR THE CO/NM BORDER ABOVE 10000 FEET.
RUNOFF AND SNOW MELT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY ON SUNDAY...PERHAPS CREATING HYDROLOGY ISSUES.

AND THE THREAT FOR ACCUMULATION STILL WON`T END THROUGH MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW ROUNDS SOUTHERN CA AND DRIVES A PACIFIC FRONT CLOSER
TO NM...EVENTUALLY CROSSING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN ITSELF WILL ALSO INDUCE A HEALTHY
SLUG OF PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY A SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP. THEN A KICKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS BEFORE TURNING INTO OLD MEXICO TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THE CABOOSE IN THE TRAIN OF STORM SPILLS
SOUTHWARD IN STRONG MERIDIONAL FLOW ON WEDNESDAY...UNLOCKING THE
DOOR TO SOME VERY COLD CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
PASSES...A WELCOME DRIER PATTERN SHOULD FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ALLOWING WEST FACING HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE WEST CENTRAL TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL...TO CONTINUE PICKING UP SNOW. THE WINDS ALOFT TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH DIG INTO SOCAL
AND ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...ALLOWING
SNOW LEVELS TO GRADUALLY RISE FROM WHAT THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME COOLER AIR MAY ENTER THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY...BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS AGREE...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT MERELY RETARDS WARMING IN THE PLAINS
FOR ANOTHER DAY RATHER THAN BRINGS ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR.
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DOMINATES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...PERMITTING A
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO SURGE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR THE
ACTIVE WEATHER AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY FOR
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO RISE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SOME OF THE HIGHER NORTHERN/WESTERN TERRAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE SNOW...AND SNOW LEVELS OVERALL FALL AGAIN
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVE OVERHEAD AND TO OUR SOUTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR IN THE EAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT
GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVER MOST OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST DUE TO
INCREASING WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS. VENT RATES OVERALL NEXT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL BE EXCELLENT THEN WORSEN SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY.
EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH MIN RH
VALUES TREND MUCH LOWER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MTS OBSCURED IN WDSPRD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW AND FOG
ALTHOUGH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST OF
THE CONTDVD BEFORE 28/00Z. SNOW TO INCREASE FROM THE CHUSKA MTS
EAST AND NORTHEAST TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
SOUTH INTO THE ABQ METRO AFT 28/00Z. UPPER JET TO REMAIN ORIENTED
FROM NW TO SE OVER NEW MEXICO THRU 28/12Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ERN NM BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  30  46  33  46 /  80  70  60  60
DULCE...........................  22  37  28  42 /  90  80  80  90
CUBA............................  24  38  30  45 /  90  70  60  80
GALLUP..........................  32  47  36  50 /  60  70  70  80
EL MORRO........................  29  47  35  51 /  50  50  60  70
GRANTS..........................  27  50  32  54 /  60  40  40  60
QUEMADO.........................  31  50  38  53 /  30  20  40  40
GLENWOOD........................  37  61  42  62 /  10  30  20  50
CHAMA...........................  19  34  26  40 /  90  80  80  90
LOS ALAMOS......................  22  37  33  46 /  70  60  60  70
PECOS...........................  15  36  31  44 /  80  50  60  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  17  34  27  42 /  90  60  70  70
RED RIVER.......................  17  28  26  37 /  90  70  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  14  33  23  40 /  90  60  70  60
TAOS............................  20  36  31  45 /  80  60  60  60
MORA............................  14  37  31  44 /  60  40  60  50
ESPANOLA........................  22  43  32  52 /  60  40  40  50
SANTA FE........................  20  39  33  48 /  70  50  50  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  20  41  32  50 /  60  40  50  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  26  48  36  57 /  60  40  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  27  50  37  60 /  50  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  25  52  34  62 /  50  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  25  50  36  61 /  60  30  40  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  28  53  36  62 /  30  20  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  27  48  36  58 /  60  30  40  40
SOCORRO.........................  31  56  39  64 /  20  10  10  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  20  40  34  49 /  60  40  50  40
TIJERAS.........................  24  45  35  55 /  60  40  50  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  17  43  31  56 /  60  30  40  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  15  37  30  48 /  60  30  40  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  21  45  36  55 /  40  20  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  28  53  40  60 /  20  10  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  26  49  36  57 /  30  20  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  10  31  24  33 /  50  30  30  40
RATON...........................  11  33  23  38 /  60  30  40  40
SPRINGER........................  12  35  24  41 /  60  30  30  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  12  35  29  43 /  60  40  40  30
CLAYTON.........................  11  32  22  30 /  50  20  20  30
ROY.............................  13  31  26  39 /  50  30  30  20
CONCHAS.........................  18  36  29  46 /  40  20  20  20
SANTA ROSA......................  18  36  30  52 /  40  20  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  17  38  30  46 /  30  20  10  10
CLOVIS..........................  16  39  30  54 /  30  20  10   5
PORTALES........................  17  41  31  58 /  30  20  10   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  19  40  31  54 /  30  20  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  23  49  34  65 /  30  10  10   0
PICACHO.........................  22  48  33  64 /  30  10  10   0
ELK.............................  23  52  37  63 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ502>504-516-518-519-521.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501-505>507-517.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>515-527.

&&

$$

52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 272232
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS PUSH OVER THE REGION. AS
ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPARTED THE STATE TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING...ANOTHER ONE IS CURRENTLY ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY IN NORTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER POTENT
DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE INTO CALIFORNIA BEFORE SLOWLY SPREADING OVER
NEW MEXICO. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS EXPECTED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SAN JUAN OR TUSAS MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER WHERE AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO FEET OF SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE...PRIMARILY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE EIGHT
THOUSAND FEET. RAIN WILL FALL IN LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THIS
WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT`S ANOTHER BUSY AND CHALLENGING FORECAST DAY IN
THE MIDDLE OF A BARRAGE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. NOT MUCH OF A
RESPITE OR LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING
BEFORE THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM STARTED SPREADING MORE BATCHES OF
SNOW INTO WETSERN NM. THIS LATTER DISTURBANCE IS A BIT MORE SUBTLE
LOOKING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMPARED TO ITS
PREDECESSOR...HOWEVER JET DYNAMICS ARE UNDERWAY AND STRENGTHENING
WITH LOTS OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT BEING DEPICTED BY FORECAST MODELS.
THIS SEEMS TO BE QUICKLY COMING TO FRUITION GIVEN LIGHT SNOW THAT
HAS ALREADY ENSUED AND STARTED AGAIN IN CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES.
FORECAST MODELS KEEP THIS DIVERGENCE ALOFT PEGGED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF NM TONIGHT...AND QPF IS GENEROUSLY
PAINTED BENEATH. HRRR MODEL IS ALSO QUITE GENEROUS WITH THIS TREND
WITH A FEW MESOSCALE BANDS OF SNOW BEING DEPICTED. THUS...FELT
PRUDENT TO SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY EXTEND ADVISORIES/WARNING
WESTWARD AND LONGER RESPECTIVELY. THESE AMENDMENTS WERE MADE AT
NOON AND WILL HOLD FOR NOW.

INTO SATURDAY THE DIVERGENCE SLOWLY DECREASES IN INTENSITY OVER NM
AND THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS BACKING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A LOW
TAKES SHAPE AND DIVES INTO CA. THIS SHOULD BEGIN A REDUCTION IN
THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN SOME LOWER ELEVATION
AREAS...REDUCTION BEING RELATIVE...WHILE OROGRAPHICS BECOME THE
MORE DOMINANT FORCING MECHANISM FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELEVATIONS
BELOW 7000 FEET WOULD ALSO OBSERVE A QUICK WARMING TREND AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE FORECAST
MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ON THIS
THOUGH...AS THE CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE...STUNTING THE
WARMING MORE THAN WHAT IS ADVERTISED BY MODELS. HAVE BUILT IN A
QUICK CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN THESE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS COULD BE A BIT PREMATURE AND
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. PRECIPITATION COULD ALSO BEGIN
TO TAKE ON A SHOWERY OR CONVECTIVE NATURE TO IT AS MODELS HAVE
LIFTED INDICES OF 0 TO -1C PROGGED OVER SOME NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD ONLY ADD TO SNOW
RATES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS/STATEMENTS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES DROP OFF SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED FOR AFOREMENTIONED REASONINGS.

THE PRECIPITATION REALLY FOCUSES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH FLOW
CONTINUING TO BACK SLIGHTLY MORE WHILE SPEEDS ALOFT INCREASE. THIS
WILL KEEP STEADY OROGRAPHIC FORCING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SOME PRONOUNCED PRECIPITATION SHADOWS
DOWNWIND OR NORTHEAST OF CHUSKAS AND OTHER TOPOGRAPHICAL BARRIERS.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL ALSO
KEEP THE WARMER AIR ADVECTING THIS WAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT`S LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT`S
READINGS WHILE SUNDAY`S HIGHS RISE ANOTHER 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
SATURDAY`S HIGHS. THIS WARMING TREND WILL SHIFT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS UPWARD TO 7500 TO 8500 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS WILL LIMIT THE SPATIAL AREA OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THE
PEAKS ABOVE THIS THRESHOLD WILL STILL SEE REMARKABLE SNOW
AMOUNTS...LIKELY ONE TO THREE FEET ON MANY PEAKS ABOVE 8500 FEET
AND CLOSER TO FOUR FEET NEAR THE CO/NM BORDER ABOVE 10000 FEET.
RUNOFF AND SNOW MELT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY ON SUNDAY...PERHAPS CREATING HYDROLOGY ISSUES.

AND THE THREAT FOR ACCUMULATION STILL WON`T END THROUGH MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW ROUNDS SOUTHERN CA AND DRIVES A PACIFIC FRONT CLOSER
TO NM...EVENTUALLY CROSSING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN ITSELF WILL ALSO INDUCE A HEALTHY
SLUG OF PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY A SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP. THEN A KICKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS BEFORE TURNING INTO OLD MEXICO TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THE CABOOSE IN THE TRAIN OF STORM SPILLS
SOUTHWARD IN STRONG MERIDIONAL FLOW ON WEDNESDAY...UNLOCKING THE
DOOR TO SOME VERY COLD CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
PASSES...A WELCOME DRIER PATTERN SHOULD FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ALLOWING WEST FACING HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE WEST CENTRAL TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL...TO CONTINUE PICKING UP SNOW. THE WINDS ALOFT TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH DIG INTO SOCAL
AND ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...ALLOWING
SNOW LEVELS TO GRADUALLY RISE FROM WHAT THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME COOLER AIR MAY ENTER THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY...BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS AGREE...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT MERELY RETARDS WARMING IN THE PLAINS
FOR ANOTHER DAY RATHER THAN BRINGS ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR.
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DOMINATES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...PERMITTING A
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO SURGE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR THE
ACTIVE WEATHER AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY FOR
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO RISE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SOME OF THE HIGHER NORTHERN/WESTERN TERRAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE SNOW...AND SNOW LEVELS OVERALL FALL AGAIN
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVE OVERHEAD AND TO OUR SOUTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR IN THE EAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT
GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVER MOST OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST DUE TO
INCREASING WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS. VENT RATES OVERALL NEXT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL BE EXCELLENT THEN WORSEN SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY.
EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH MIN RH
VALUES TREND MUCH LOWER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MTS OBSCURED IN WDSPRD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW AND FOG
ALTHOUGH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST OF
THE CONTDVD BEFORE 28/00Z. SNOW TO INCREASE FROM THE CHUSKA MTS
EAST AND NORTHEAST TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
SOUTH INTO THE ABQ METRO AFT 28/00Z. UPPER JET TO REMAIN ORIENTED
FROM NW TO SE OVER NEW MEXICO THRU 28/12Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ERN NM BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  30  46  33  46 /  80  70  60  60
DULCE...........................  22  37  28  42 /  90  80  80  90
CUBA............................  24  38  30  45 /  90  70  60  80
GALLUP..........................  32  47  36  50 /  60  70  70  80
EL MORRO........................  29  47  35  51 /  50  50  60  70
GRANTS..........................  27  50  32  54 /  60  40  40  60
QUEMADO.........................  31  50  38  53 /  30  20  40  40
GLENWOOD........................  37  61  42  62 /  10  30  20  50
CHAMA...........................  19  34  26  40 /  90  80  80  90
LOS ALAMOS......................  22  37  33  46 /  70  60  60  70
PECOS...........................  15  36  31  44 /  80  50  60  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  17  34  27  42 /  90  60  70  70
RED RIVER.......................  17  28  26  37 /  90  70  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  14  33  23  40 /  90  60  70  60
TAOS............................  20  36  31  45 /  80  60  60  60
MORA............................  14  37  31  44 /  60  40  60  50
ESPANOLA........................  22  43  32  52 /  60  40  40  50
SANTA FE........................  20  39  33  48 /  70  50  50  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  20  41  32  50 /  60  40  50  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  26  48  36  57 /  60  40  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  27  50  37  60 /  50  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  25  52  34  62 /  50  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  25  50  36  61 /  60  30  40  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  28  53  36  62 /  30  20  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  27  48  36  58 /  60  30  40  40
SOCORRO.........................  31  56  39  64 /  20  10  10  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  20  40  34  49 /  60  40  50  40
TIJERAS.........................  24  45  35  55 /  60  40  50  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  17  43  31  56 /  60  30  40  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  15  37  30  48 /  60  30  40  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  21  45  36  55 /  40  20  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  28  53  40  60 /  20  10  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  26  49  36  57 /  30  20  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  10  31  24  33 /  50  30  30  40
RATON...........................  11  33  23  38 /  60  30  40  40
SPRINGER........................  12  35  24  41 /  60  30  30  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  12  35  29  43 /  60  40  40  30
CLAYTON.........................  11  32  22  30 /  50  20  20  30
ROY.............................  13  31  26  39 /  50  30  30  20
CONCHAS.........................  18  36  29  46 /  40  20  20  20
SANTA ROSA......................  18  36  30  52 /  40  20  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  17  38  30  46 /  30  20  10  10
CLOVIS..........................  16  39  30  54 /  30  20  10   5
PORTALES........................  17  41  31  58 /  30  20  10   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  19  40  31  54 /  30  20  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  23  49  34  65 /  30  10  10   0
PICACHO.........................  22  48  33  64 /  30  10  10   0
ELK.............................  23  52  37  63 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ502>504-516-518-519-521.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501-505>507-517.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>515-527.

&&

$$

52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 272232
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS PUSH OVER THE REGION. AS
ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPARTED THE STATE TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING...ANOTHER ONE IS CURRENTLY ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY IN NORTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER POTENT
DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE INTO CALIFORNIA BEFORE SLOWLY SPREADING OVER
NEW MEXICO. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS EXPECTED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SAN JUAN OR TUSAS MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER WHERE AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO FEET OF SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE...PRIMARILY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE EIGHT
THOUSAND FEET. RAIN WILL FALL IN LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THIS
WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT`S ANOTHER BUSY AND CHALLENGING FORECAST DAY IN
THE MIDDLE OF A BARRAGE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. NOT MUCH OF A
RESPITE OR LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING
BEFORE THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM STARTED SPREADING MORE BATCHES OF
SNOW INTO WETSERN NM. THIS LATTER DISTURBANCE IS A BIT MORE SUBTLE
LOOKING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMPARED TO ITS
PREDECESSOR...HOWEVER JET DYNAMICS ARE UNDERWAY AND STRENGTHENING
WITH LOTS OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT BEING DEPICTED BY FORECAST MODELS.
THIS SEEMS TO BE QUICKLY COMING TO FRUITION GIVEN LIGHT SNOW THAT
HAS ALREADY ENSUED AND STARTED AGAIN IN CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES.
FORECAST MODELS KEEP THIS DIVERGENCE ALOFT PEGGED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF NM TONIGHT...AND QPF IS GENEROUSLY
PAINTED BENEATH. HRRR MODEL IS ALSO QUITE GENEROUS WITH THIS TREND
WITH A FEW MESOSCALE BANDS OF SNOW BEING DEPICTED. THUS...FELT
PRUDENT TO SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY EXTEND ADVISORIES/WARNING
WESTWARD AND LONGER RESPECTIVELY. THESE AMENDMENTS WERE MADE AT
NOON AND WILL HOLD FOR NOW.

INTO SATURDAY THE DIVERGENCE SLOWLY DECREASES IN INTENSITY OVER NM
AND THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS BACKING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A LOW
TAKES SHAPE AND DIVES INTO CA. THIS SHOULD BEGIN A REDUCTION IN
THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN SOME LOWER ELEVATION
AREAS...REDUCTION BEING RELATIVE...WHILE OROGRAPHICS BECOME THE
MORE DOMINANT FORCING MECHANISM FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELEVATIONS
BELOW 7000 FEET WOULD ALSO OBSERVE A QUICK WARMING TREND AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE FORECAST
MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ON THIS
THOUGH...AS THE CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE...STUNTING THE
WARMING MORE THAN WHAT IS ADVERTISED BY MODELS. HAVE BUILT IN A
QUICK CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN THESE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS COULD BE A BIT PREMATURE AND
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. PRECIPITATION COULD ALSO BEGIN
TO TAKE ON A SHOWERY OR CONVECTIVE NATURE TO IT AS MODELS HAVE
LIFTED INDICES OF 0 TO -1C PROGGED OVER SOME NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD ONLY ADD TO SNOW
RATES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS/STATEMENTS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES DROP OFF SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED FOR AFOREMENTIONED REASONINGS.

THE PRECIPITATION REALLY FOCUSES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH FLOW
CONTINUING TO BACK SLIGHTLY MORE WHILE SPEEDS ALOFT INCREASE. THIS
WILL KEEP STEADY OROGRAPHIC FORCING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SOME PRONOUNCED PRECIPITATION SHADOWS
DOWNWIND OR NORTHEAST OF CHUSKAS AND OTHER TOPOGRAPHICAL BARRIERS.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL ALSO
KEEP THE WARMER AIR ADVECTING THIS WAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT`S LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT`S
READINGS WHILE SUNDAY`S HIGHS RISE ANOTHER 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
SATURDAY`S HIGHS. THIS WARMING TREND WILL SHIFT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS UPWARD TO 7500 TO 8500 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS WILL LIMIT THE SPATIAL AREA OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THE
PEAKS ABOVE THIS THRESHOLD WILL STILL SEE REMARKABLE SNOW
AMOUNTS...LIKELY ONE TO THREE FEET ON MANY PEAKS ABOVE 8500 FEET
AND CLOSER TO FOUR FEET NEAR THE CO/NM BORDER ABOVE 10000 FEET.
RUNOFF AND SNOW MELT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY ON SUNDAY...PERHAPS CREATING HYDROLOGY ISSUES.

AND THE THREAT FOR ACCUMULATION STILL WON`T END THROUGH MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW ROUNDS SOUTHERN CA AND DRIVES A PACIFIC FRONT CLOSER
TO NM...EVENTUALLY CROSSING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN ITSELF WILL ALSO INDUCE A HEALTHY
SLUG OF PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY A SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP. THEN A KICKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS BEFORE TURNING INTO OLD MEXICO TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THE CABOOSE IN THE TRAIN OF STORM SPILLS
SOUTHWARD IN STRONG MERIDIONAL FLOW ON WEDNESDAY...UNLOCKING THE
DOOR TO SOME VERY COLD CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
PASSES...A WELCOME DRIER PATTERN SHOULD FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ALLOWING WEST FACING HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE WEST CENTRAL TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL...TO CONTINUE PICKING UP SNOW. THE WINDS ALOFT TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH DIG INTO SOCAL
AND ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...ALLOWING
SNOW LEVELS TO GRADUALLY RISE FROM WHAT THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME COOLER AIR MAY ENTER THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY...BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS AGREE...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT MERELY RETARDS WARMING IN THE PLAINS
FOR ANOTHER DAY RATHER THAN BRINGS ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR.
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DOMINATES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...PERMITTING A
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO SURGE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR THE
ACTIVE WEATHER AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY FOR
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO RISE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SOME OF THE HIGHER NORTHERN/WESTERN TERRAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE SNOW...AND SNOW LEVELS OVERALL FALL AGAIN
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVE OVERHEAD AND TO OUR SOUTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR IN THE EAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT
GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVER MOST OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST DUE TO
INCREASING WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS. VENT RATES OVERALL NEXT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL BE EXCELLENT THEN WORSEN SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY.
EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH MIN RH
VALUES TREND MUCH LOWER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MTS OBSCURED IN WDSPRD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW AND FOG
ALTHOUGH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST OF
THE CONTDVD BEFORE 28/00Z. SNOW TO INCREASE FROM THE CHUSKA MTS
EAST AND NORTHEAST TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
SOUTH INTO THE ABQ METRO AFT 28/00Z. UPPER JET TO REMAIN ORIENTED
FROM NW TO SE OVER NEW MEXICO THRU 28/12Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ERN NM BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  30  46  33  46 /  80  70  60  60
DULCE...........................  22  37  28  42 /  90  80  80  90
CUBA............................  24  38  30  45 /  90  70  60  80
GALLUP..........................  32  47  36  50 /  60  70  70  80
EL MORRO........................  29  47  35  51 /  50  50  60  70
GRANTS..........................  27  50  32  54 /  60  40  40  60
QUEMADO.........................  31  50  38  53 /  30  20  40  40
GLENWOOD........................  37  61  42  62 /  10  30  20  50
CHAMA...........................  19  34  26  40 /  90  80  80  90
LOS ALAMOS......................  22  37  33  46 /  70  60  60  70
PECOS...........................  15  36  31  44 /  80  50  60  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  17  34  27  42 /  90  60  70  70
RED RIVER.......................  17  28  26  37 /  90  70  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  14  33  23  40 /  90  60  70  60
TAOS............................  20  36  31  45 /  80  60  60  60
MORA............................  14  37  31  44 /  60  40  60  50
ESPANOLA........................  22  43  32  52 /  60  40  40  50
SANTA FE........................  20  39  33  48 /  70  50  50  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  20  41  32  50 /  60  40  50  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  26  48  36  57 /  60  40  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  27  50  37  60 /  50  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  25  52  34  62 /  50  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  25  50  36  61 /  60  30  40  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  28  53  36  62 /  30  20  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  27  48  36  58 /  60  30  40  40
SOCORRO.........................  31  56  39  64 /  20  10  10  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  20  40  34  49 /  60  40  50  40
TIJERAS.........................  24  45  35  55 /  60  40  50  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  17  43  31  56 /  60  30  40  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  15  37  30  48 /  60  30  40  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  21  45  36  55 /  40  20  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  28  53  40  60 /  20  10  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  26  49  36  57 /  30  20  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  10  31  24  33 /  50  30  30  40
RATON...........................  11  33  23  38 /  60  30  40  40
SPRINGER........................  12  35  24  41 /  60  30  30  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  12  35  29  43 /  60  40  40  30
CLAYTON.........................  11  32  22  30 /  50  20  20  30
ROY.............................  13  31  26  39 /  50  30  30  20
CONCHAS.........................  18  36  29  46 /  40  20  20  20
SANTA ROSA......................  18  36  30  52 /  40  20  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  17  38  30  46 /  30  20  10  10
CLOVIS..........................  16  39  30  54 /  30  20  10   5
PORTALES........................  17  41  31  58 /  30  20  10   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  19  40  31  54 /  30  20  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  23  49  34  65 /  30  10  10   0
PICACHO.........................  22  48  33  64 /  30  10  10   0
ELK.............................  23  52  37  63 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ502>504-516-518-519-521.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501-505>507-517.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>515-527.

&&

$$

52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 272232
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...

AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS PUSH OVER THE REGION. AS
ONE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DEPARTED THE STATE TO THE EAST THIS
MORNING...ANOTHER ONE IS CURRENTLY ARRIVING FROM THE WEST.
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...PRIMARILY IN NORTHWESTERN TO CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL
PARTS OF NEW MEXICO. INTO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...ANOTHER POTENT
DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE INTO CALIFORNIA BEFORE SLOWLY SPREADING OVER
NEW MEXICO. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS EXPECTED
OVER NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO
SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SAN JUAN OR TUSAS MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER WHERE AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO FEET OF SNOW COULD
ACCUMULATE...PRIMARILY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE EIGHT
THOUSAND FEET. RAIN WILL FALL IN LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THIS
WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...IT`S ANOTHER BUSY AND CHALLENGING FORECAST DAY IN
THE MIDDLE OF A BARRAGE OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES. NOT MUCH OF A
RESPITE OR LULL IN THE PRECIPITATION WAS OBSERVED THIS MORNING
BEFORE THE NEXT UPSTREAM SYSTEM STARTED SPREADING MORE BATCHES OF
SNOW INTO WETSERN NM. THIS LATTER DISTURBANCE IS A BIT MORE SUBTLE
LOOKING ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY COMPARED TO ITS
PREDECESSOR...HOWEVER JET DYNAMICS ARE UNDERWAY AND STRENGTHENING
WITH LOTS OF DIVERGENCE ALOFT BEING DEPICTED BY FORECAST MODELS.
THIS SEEMS TO BE QUICKLY COMING TO FRUITION GIVEN LIGHT SNOW THAT
HAS ALREADY ENSUED AND STARTED AGAIN IN CENTRAL TO WESTERN ZONES.
FORECAST MODELS KEEP THIS DIVERGENCE ALOFT PEGGED OVER THE
NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF NM TONIGHT...AND QPF IS GENEROUSLY
PAINTED BENEATH. HRRR MODEL IS ALSO QUITE GENEROUS WITH THIS TREND
WITH A FEW MESOSCALE BANDS OF SNOW BEING DEPICTED. THUS...FELT
PRUDENT TO SPATIALLY AND TEMPORALLY EXTEND ADVISORIES/WARNING
WESTWARD AND LONGER RESPECTIVELY. THESE AMENDMENTS WERE MADE AT
NOON AND WILL HOLD FOR NOW.

INTO SATURDAY THE DIVERGENCE SLOWLY DECREASES IN INTENSITY OVER NM
AND THE FLOW ALOFT BEGINS BACKING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AS A LOW
TAKES SHAPE AND DIVES INTO CA. THIS SHOULD BEGIN A REDUCTION IN
THE COVERAGE OF PRECIPITATION IN SOME LOWER ELEVATION
AREAS...REDUCTION BEING RELATIVE...WHILE OROGRAPHICS BECOME THE
MORE DOMINANT FORCING MECHANISM FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN. ELEVATIONS
BELOW 7000 FEET WOULD ALSO OBSERVE A QUICK WARMING TREND AS WARM
AIR ADVECTION BEGINS IN THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW. THE FORECAST
MODELS MAY BE A BIT TOO HIGH WITH MAX TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE ON THIS
THOUGH...AS THE CLOUD COVER MAY BE SLOW TO ERODE...STUNTING THE
WARMING MORE THAN WHAT IS ADVERTISED BY MODELS. HAVE BUILT IN A
QUICK CHANGEOVER TO RAIN IN THESE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY LATE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...BUT THIS COULD BE A BIT PREMATURE AND
WILL NEED TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED. PRECIPITATION COULD ALSO BEGIN
TO TAKE ON A SHOWERY OR CONVECTIVE NATURE TO IT AS MODELS HAVE
LIFTED INDICES OF 0 TO -1C PROGGED OVER SOME NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN ZONES SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WOULD ONLY ADD TO SNOW
RATES IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. THE WINTER HIGHLIGHTS/STATEMENTS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES DROP OFF SATURDAY MORNING...BUT MAY NEED TO
BE EXTENDED FOR AFOREMENTIONED REASONINGS.

THE PRECIPITATION REALLY FOCUSES TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN THIRD OF
THE FORECAST AREA INTO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH FLOW
CONTINUING TO BACK SLIGHTLY MORE WHILE SPEEDS ALOFT INCREASE. THIS
WILL KEEP STEADY OROGRAPHIC FORCING OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS WITH SOME PRONOUNCED PRECIPITATION SHADOWS
DOWNWIND OR NORTHEAST OF CHUSKAS AND OTHER TOPOGRAPHICAL BARRIERS.
THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT AND RISING PRESSURE HEIGHTS WILL ALSO
KEEP THE WARMER AIR ADVECTING THIS WAY...AND SATURDAY NIGHT`S LOW
TEMPERATURES WILL BE 10 TO 15 DEGREES WARMER THAN TONIGHT`S
READINGS WHILE SUNDAY`S HIGHS RISE ANOTHER 5 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE
SATURDAY`S HIGHS. THIS WARMING TREND WILL SHIFT SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS UPWARD TO 7500 TO 8500 FEET SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE
THIS WILL LIMIT THE SPATIAL AREA OF SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS...THE
PEAKS ABOVE THIS THRESHOLD WILL STILL SEE REMARKABLE SNOW
AMOUNTS...LIKELY ONE TO THREE FEET ON MANY PEAKS ABOVE 8500 FEET
AND CLOSER TO FOUR FEET NEAR THE CO/NM BORDER ABOVE 10000 FEET.
RUNOFF AND SNOW MELT AT LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL ALSO NEED TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY ON SUNDAY...PERHAPS CREATING HYDROLOGY ISSUES.

AND THE THREAT FOR ACCUMULATION STILL WON`T END THROUGH MONDAY AS
THE UPPER LOW ROUNDS SOUTHERN CA AND DRIVES A PACIFIC FRONT CLOSER
TO NM...EVENTUALLY CROSSING INTO OUR FORECAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT.
THIS FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING IN ITSELF WILL ALSO INDUCE A HEALTHY
SLUG OF PRECIPITATION...POSSIBLY ENHANCED BY A SUBTROPICAL
MOISTURE TAP. THEN A KICKER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THIS BEFORE TURNING INTO OLD MEXICO TUESDAY AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY. FINALLY THE CABOOSE IN THE TRAIN OF STORM SPILLS
SOUTHWARD IN STRONG MERIDIONAL FLOW ON WEDNESDAY...UNLOCKING THE
DOOR TO SOME VERY COLD CONTINENTAL POLAR AIR. ONCE THIS SYSTEM
PASSES...A WELCOME DRIER PATTERN SHOULD FOLLOW INTO THURSDAY OF
NEXT WEEK.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...ALLOWING WEST FACING HIGHER
TERRAIN LOCATIONS...ESPECIALLY FROM THE WEST CENTRAL TO THE NORTH
CENTRAL...TO CONTINUE PICKING UP SNOW. THE WINDS ALOFT TRANSITION TO
SOUTHWEST SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS AN UPPER LOW/TROUGH DIG INTO SOCAL
AND ARIZONA. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM IN ADVANCE OF THE LOW...ALLOWING
SNOW LEVELS TO GRADUALLY RISE FROM WHAT THEY ARE THIS AFTERNOON.

SOME COOLER AIR MAY ENTER THE EASTERN PLAINS SUNDAY...BOTH ECMWF AND
GFS AGREE...BUT LOOKS LIKE IT MERELY RETARDS WARMING IN THE PLAINS
FOR ANOTHER DAY RATHER THAN BRINGS ANOTHER SURGE OF MUCH COLDER AIR.
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DOMINATES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK...PERMITTING A
MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIR MASS TO SURGE INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY. THIS LOOKS TO BE THE LAST GASP FOR THE
ACTIVE WEATHER AT LEAST FOR THE REST OF NEXT WEEK.

THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE LIKELY FOR
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH SNOW LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO RISE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...SOME OF THE HIGHER NORTHERN/WESTERN TERRAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO RECEIVE SNOW...AND SNOW LEVELS OVERALL FALL AGAIN
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LOW/TROUGH MOVE OVERHEAD AND TO OUR SOUTH.

HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN BELOW
AVERAGE. VENT RATES WILL BE POOR IN THE EAST SATURDAY AND SUNDAY BUT
GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVER MOST OF THE WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST DUE TO
INCREASING WINDS AND MIXING HEIGHTS. VENT RATES OVERALL NEXT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY WILL BE EXCELLENT THEN WORSEN SOMEWHAT WEDNESDAY.
EXCELLENT RH RECOVERIES EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH MIN RH
VALUES TREND MUCH LOWER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MTS OBSCURED IN WDSPRD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW AND FOG
ALTHOUGH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST OF
THE CONTDVD BEFORE 28/00Z. SNOW TO INCREASE FROM THE CHUSKA MTS
EAST AND NORTHEAST TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
SOUTH INTO THE ABQ METRO AFT 28/00Z. UPPER JET TO REMAIN ORIENTED
FROM NW TO SE OVER NEW MEXICO THRU 28/12Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ERN NM BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  30  46  33  46 /  80  70  60  60
DULCE...........................  22  37  28  42 /  90  80  80  90
CUBA............................  24  38  30  45 /  90  70  60  80
GALLUP..........................  32  47  36  50 /  60  70  70  80
EL MORRO........................  29  47  35  51 /  50  50  60  70
GRANTS..........................  27  50  32  54 /  60  40  40  60
QUEMADO.........................  31  50  38  53 /  30  20  40  40
GLENWOOD........................  37  61  42  62 /  10  30  20  50
CHAMA...........................  19  34  26  40 /  90  80  80  90
LOS ALAMOS......................  22  37  33  46 /  70  60  60  70
PECOS...........................  15  36  31  44 /  80  50  60  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  17  34  27  42 /  90  60  70  70
RED RIVER.......................  17  28  26  37 /  90  70  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  14  33  23  40 /  90  60  70  60
TAOS............................  20  36  31  45 /  80  60  60  60
MORA............................  14  37  31  44 /  60  40  60  50
ESPANOLA........................  22  43  32  52 /  60  40  40  50
SANTA FE........................  20  39  33  48 /  70  50  50  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  20  41  32  50 /  60  40  50  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  26  48  36  57 /  60  40  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  27  50  37  60 /  50  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  25  52  34  62 /  50  30  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  25  50  36  61 /  60  30  40  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  28  53  36  62 /  30  20  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  27  48  36  58 /  60  30  40  40
SOCORRO.........................  31  56  39  64 /  20  10  10  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  20  40  34  49 /  60  40  50  40
TIJERAS.........................  24  45  35  55 /  60  40  50  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  17  43  31  56 /  60  30  40  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  15  37  30  48 /  60  30  40  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  21  45  36  55 /  40  20  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  28  53  40  60 /  20  10  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  26  49  36  57 /  30  20  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  10  31  24  33 /  50  30  30  40
RATON...........................  11  33  23  38 /  60  30  40  40
SPRINGER........................  12  35  24  41 /  60  30  30  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  12  35  29  43 /  60  40  40  30
CLAYTON.........................  11  32  22  30 /  50  20  20  30
ROY.............................  13  31  26  39 /  50  30  30  20
CONCHAS.........................  18  36  29  46 /  40  20  20  20
SANTA ROSA......................  18  36  30  52 /  40  20  20  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  17  38  30  46 /  30  20  10  10
CLOVIS..........................  16  39  30  54 /  30  20  10   5
PORTALES........................  17  41  31  58 /  30  20  10   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  19  40  31  54 /  30  20  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  23  49  34  65 /  30  10  10   0
PICACHO.........................  22  48  33  64 /  30  10  10   0
ELK.............................  23  52  37  63 /  20  10  10   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ502>504-516-518-519-521.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501-505>507-517.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>515-527.

&&

$$

52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 271745
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1045 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MTS OBSCURED IN WDSPRD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW AND FOG
ALTHOUGH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST OF
THE CONTDVD BEFORE 28/00Z. SNOW TO INCREASE FROM THE CHUSKA MTS
EAST AND NORTHEAST TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
SOUTH INTO THE ABQ METRO AFT 28/00Z. UPPER JET TO REMAIN ORIENTED
FROM NW TO SE OVER NEW MEXICO THRU 28/12Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ERN NM BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A PARADE OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO WITH
AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEK. SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY THE MIDDLE OF TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT IT SHOULD CONTINUE AND ACTUALLY RE-
INTENSIFY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LIFT TO NEAR 8000 FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE FALLING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY AND WET SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE
MEASURED IN FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE DAMAGE TO
SOME STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO CAN EXPECT A GOOD SOAKING OF RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THIS MORNING.

A NEW BATCH OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AFTER STEERING A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE
AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF NEW MEXICO
THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS NM DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK.
ADDITIONAL STRONG DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS
TROUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE AREA WIDE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND WILL CAUSE SNOW
LEVELS TO LIFT AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD FALL TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FARTHER EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAJOR IMPACTS MAY NOT BE LIMITED TO VERY HEAVY SNOW. THERE IS A
RISK OF FLOODING DEVELOPING IN IN THE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BELOW 8000 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY...MAINLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. SIGNIFICANT
PERIOD OF HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE CURRENT WAVE WILL EXIT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM THIS MORNING AND
LEAVE BEHIND MANY AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND COLD TEMPS. THE
NEXT WAVE WILL SLIDE IN QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND SLAM
AREAS OF NORTHERN NM WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES YET
THIS SEASON.

BY WE ARE NOT DONE. A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND SET UP A MOIST WARM CONVEYOR
BELT OVER WESTERN NM THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL TREND SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SNOW
LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7500 FEET. SNOW MELT WILL BE A HUGE REGULATING
FACTOR FOR MAX/MIN RH VALUES CENTRAL AND EAST. HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. WE WILL BE TALKING FEET OF SNOWFALL...ALLOWING FOR SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES TO LIKELY SETTLE IN NEAR AVERAGE FINALLY FOR
EARLY MARCH.

THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE
AND DISSIPATE WHILE DOING SO. THIS WILL TREND TEMPS DOWN AGAIN AND
LOWER SNOW LEVELS. IF THATS NOT ENOUGH...ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND DELIVERS ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR
AND INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RING OUT ANY LEFT OVER MOISTURE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ504-507-508-525-526-530-534>540.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ520-524-528-529-531>533.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ516-518-519-521>523.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>515-527.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ517.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 271745
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1045 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MTS OBSCURED IN WDSPRD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW AND FOG
ALTHOUGH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST OF
THE CONTDVD BEFORE 28/00Z. SNOW TO INCREASE FROM THE CHUSKA MTS
EAST AND NORTHEAST TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
SOUTH INTO THE ABQ METRO AFT 28/00Z. UPPER JET TO REMAIN ORIENTED
FROM NW TO SE OVER NEW MEXICO THRU 28/12Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ERN NM BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A PARADE OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO WITH
AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEK. SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY THE MIDDLE OF TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT IT SHOULD CONTINUE AND ACTUALLY RE-
INTENSIFY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LIFT TO NEAR 8000 FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE FALLING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY AND WET SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE
MEASURED IN FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE DAMAGE TO
SOME STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO CAN EXPECT A GOOD SOAKING OF RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THIS MORNING.

A NEW BATCH OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AFTER STEERING A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE
AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF NEW MEXICO
THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS NM DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK.
ADDITIONAL STRONG DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS
TROUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE AREA WIDE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND WILL CAUSE SNOW
LEVELS TO LIFT AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD FALL TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FARTHER EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAJOR IMPACTS MAY NOT BE LIMITED TO VERY HEAVY SNOW. THERE IS A
RISK OF FLOODING DEVELOPING IN IN THE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BELOW 8000 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY...MAINLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. SIGNIFICANT
PERIOD OF HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE CURRENT WAVE WILL EXIT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM THIS MORNING AND
LEAVE BEHIND MANY AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND COLD TEMPS. THE
NEXT WAVE WILL SLIDE IN QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND SLAM
AREAS OF NORTHERN NM WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES YET
THIS SEASON.

BY WE ARE NOT DONE. A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND SET UP A MOIST WARM CONVEYOR
BELT OVER WESTERN NM THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL TREND SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SNOW
LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7500 FEET. SNOW MELT WILL BE A HUGE REGULATING
FACTOR FOR MAX/MIN RH VALUES CENTRAL AND EAST. HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. WE WILL BE TALKING FEET OF SNOWFALL...ALLOWING FOR SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES TO LIKELY SETTLE IN NEAR AVERAGE FINALLY FOR
EARLY MARCH.

THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE
AND DISSIPATE WHILE DOING SO. THIS WILL TREND TEMPS DOWN AGAIN AND
LOWER SNOW LEVELS. IF THATS NOT ENOUGH...ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND DELIVERS ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR
AND INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RING OUT ANY LEFT OVER MOISTURE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ504-507-508-525-526-530-534>540.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ520-524-528-529-531>533.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ516-518-519-521>523.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>515-527.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ517.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 271745
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1045 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
MTS OBSCURED IN WDSPRD MVFR TO IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN SNOW AND FOG
ALTHOUGH A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW POSSIBLE LOWER ELEVATIONS WEST OF
THE CONTDVD BEFORE 28/00Z. SNOW TO INCREASE FROM THE CHUSKA MTS
EAST AND NORTHEAST TO THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS AND POSSIBLY AS FAR
SOUTH INTO THE ABQ METRO AFT 28/00Z. UPPER JET TO REMAIN ORIENTED
FROM NW TO SE OVER NEW MEXICO THRU 28/12Z AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER ERN NM BEGINS TO WEAKEN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A PARADE OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO WITH
AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEK. SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY THE MIDDLE OF TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT IT SHOULD CONTINUE AND ACTUALLY RE-
INTENSIFY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LIFT TO NEAR 8000 FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE FALLING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY AND WET SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE
MEASURED IN FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE DAMAGE TO
SOME STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO CAN EXPECT A GOOD SOAKING OF RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THIS MORNING.

A NEW BATCH OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AFTER STEERING A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE
AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF NEW MEXICO
THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS NM DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK.
ADDITIONAL STRONG DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS
TROUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE AREA WIDE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND WILL CAUSE SNOW
LEVELS TO LIFT AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD FALL TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FARTHER EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAJOR IMPACTS MAY NOT BE LIMITED TO VERY HEAVY SNOW. THERE IS A
RISK OF FLOODING DEVELOPING IN IN THE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BELOW 8000 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY...MAINLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. SIGNIFICANT
PERIOD OF HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE CURRENT WAVE WILL EXIT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM THIS MORNING AND
LEAVE BEHIND MANY AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND COLD TEMPS. THE
NEXT WAVE WILL SLIDE IN QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND SLAM
AREAS OF NORTHERN NM WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES YET
THIS SEASON.

BY WE ARE NOT DONE. A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND SET UP A MOIST WARM CONVEYOR
BELT OVER WESTERN NM THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL TREND SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SNOW
LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7500 FEET. SNOW MELT WILL BE A HUGE REGULATING
FACTOR FOR MAX/MIN RH VALUES CENTRAL AND EAST. HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. WE WILL BE TALKING FEET OF SNOWFALL...ALLOWING FOR SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES TO LIKELY SETTLE IN NEAR AVERAGE FINALLY FOR
EARLY MARCH.

THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE
AND DISSIPATE WHILE DOING SO. THIS WILL TREND TEMPS DOWN AGAIN AND
LOWER SNOW LEVELS. IF THATS NOT ENOUGH...ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND DELIVERS ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR
AND INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RING OUT ANY LEFT OVER MOISTURE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ504-507-508-525-526-530-534>540.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ520-524-528-529-531>533.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ516-518-519-521>523.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>515-527.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ517.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 271210 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
510 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND FREEZING FOG WILL
AFLICT LOCATIONS ALONG AND E OF THE CONTDVD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. NW AREAS WILL BE IMPACTED...TOO. ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
EXIT EASTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS S AND E AREAS BY
MID DAY. HOWEVER...IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AGAIN AS SNOW RE-INTENSIFIES IN MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A PARADE OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO WITH
AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEK. SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY THE MIDDLE OF TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT IT SHOULD CONTINUE AND ACTUALLY RE-
INTENSIFY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LIFT TO NEAR 8000 FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE FALLING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY AND WET SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE
MEASURED IN FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE DAMAGE TO
SOME STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO CAN EXPECT A GOOD SOAKING OF RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THIS MORNING.

A NEW BATCH OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AFTER STEERING A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE
AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF NEW MEXICO
THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS NM DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK.
ADDITIONAL STRONG DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS
TROUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE AREA WIDE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND WILL CAUSE SNOW
LEVELS TO LIFT AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD FALL TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FARTHER EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAJOR IMPACTS MAY NOT BE LIMITED TO VERY HEAVY SNOW. THERE IS A
RISK OF FLOODING DEVELOPING IN IN THE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BELOW 8000 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY...MAINLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. SIGNIFICANT
PERIOD OF HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE CURRENT WAVE WILL EXIT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM THIS MORNING AND
LEAVE BEHIND MANY AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND COLD TEMPS. THE
NEXT WAVE WILL SLIDE IN QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND SLAM
AREAS OF NORTHERN NM WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES YET
THIS SEASON.

BY WE ARE NOT DONE. A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND SET UP A MOIST WARM CONVEYOR
BELT OVER WESTERN NM THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL TREND SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SNOW
LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7500 FEET. SNOW MELT WILL BE A HUGE REGULATING
FACTOR FOR MAX/MIN RH VALUES CENTRAL AND EAST. HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. WE WILL BE TALKING FEET OF SNOWFALL...ALLOWING FOR SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES TO LIKELY SETTLE IN NEAR AVERAGE FINALLY FOR
EARLY MARCH.

THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE
AND DISSIPATE WHILE DOING SO. THIS WILL TREND TEMPS DOWN AGAIN AND
LOWER SNOW LEVELS. IF THATS NOT ENOUGH...ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND DELIVERS ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR
AND INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RING OUT ANY LEFT OVER MOISTURE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ504-507-508-525-526-530-534>540.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ520-524-528-529-531>533.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ516-518-519-521>523.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>515-527.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ517.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 271210 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
510 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW AND FREEZING FOG WILL
AFLICT LOCATIONS ALONG AND E OF THE CONTDVD THROUGH MUCH OF THE
DAY. NW AREAS WILL BE IMPACTED...TOO. ONE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
EXIT EASTWARD WITH PRECIPITATION ENDING ACROSS S AND E AREAS BY
MID DAY. HOWEVER...IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD
AGAIN AS SNOW RE-INTENSIFIES IN MANY LOCATIONS TONIGHT.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...332 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A PARADE OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO WITH
AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEK. SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY THE MIDDLE OF TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT IT SHOULD CONTINUE AND ACTUALLY RE-
INTENSIFY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LIFT TO NEAR 8000 FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE FALLING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY AND WET SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE
MEASURED IN FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE DAMAGE TO
SOME STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO CAN EXPECT A GOOD SOAKING OF RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THIS MORNING.

A NEW BATCH OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AFTER STEERING A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE
AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF NEW MEXICO
THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS NM DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK.
ADDITIONAL STRONG DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS
TROUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE AREA WIDE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND WILL CAUSE SNOW
LEVELS TO LIFT AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD FALL TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FARTHER EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAJOR IMPACTS MAY NOT BE LIMITED TO VERY HEAVY SNOW. THERE IS A
RISK OF FLOODING DEVELOPING IN IN THE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BELOW 8000 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY...MAINLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. SIGNIFICANT
PERIOD OF HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE CURRENT WAVE WILL EXIT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM THIS MORNING AND
LEAVE BEHIND MANY AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND COLD TEMPS. THE
NEXT WAVE WILL SLIDE IN QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND SLAM
AREAS OF NORTHERN NM WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES YET
THIS SEASON.

BY WE ARE NOT DONE. A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND SET UP A MOIST WARM CONVEYOR
BELT OVER WESTERN NM THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL TREND SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SNOW
LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7500 FEET. SNOW MELT WILL BE A HUGE REGULATING
FACTOR FOR MAX/MIN RH VALUES CENTRAL AND EAST. HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. WE WILL BE TALKING FEET OF SNOWFALL...ALLOWING FOR SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES TO LIKELY SETTLE IN NEAR AVERAGE FINALLY FOR
EARLY MARCH.

THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE
AND DISSIPATE WHILE DOING SO. THIS WILL TREND TEMPS DOWN AGAIN AND
LOWER SNOW LEVELS. IF THATS NOT ENOUGH...ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND DELIVERS ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR
AND INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RING OUT ANY LEFT OVER MOISTURE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

GUYER

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ504-507-508-525-526-530-534>540.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ520-524-528-529-531>533.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ516-518-519-521>523.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>515-527.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ517.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 271032
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PARADE OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO WITH
AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEK. SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY THE MIDDLE OF TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT IT SHOULD CONTINUE AND ACTUALLY RE-
INTENSIFY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LIFT TO NEAR 8000 FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE FALLING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY AND WET SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE
MEASURED IN FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE DAMAGE TO
SOME STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO CAN EXPECT A GOOD SOAKING OF RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THIS MORNING.

A NEW BATCH OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AFTER STEERING A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE
AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF NEW MEXICO
THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS NM DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK.
ADDITIONAL STRONG DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS
TROUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE AREA WIDE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND WILL CAUSE SNOW
LEVELS TO LIFT AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD FALL TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FARTHER EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAJOR IMPACTS MAY NOT BE LIMITED TO VERY HEAVY SNOW. THERE IS A
RISK OF FLOODING DEVELOPING IN IN THE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BELOW 8000 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY...MAINLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. SIGNIFICANT
PERIOD OF HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE CURRENT WAVE WILL EXIT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM THIS MORNING AND
LEAVE BEHIND MANY AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND COLD TEMPS. THE
NEXT WAVE WILL SLIDE IN QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND SLAM
AREAS OF NORTHERN NM WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES YET
THIS SEASON.

BY WE ARE NOT DONE. A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND SET UP A MOIST WARM CONVEYOR
BELT OVER WESTERN NM THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL TREND SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SNOW
LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7500 FEET. SNOW MELT WILL BE A HUGE REGULATING
FACTOR FOR MAX/MIN RH VALUES CENTRAL AND EAST. HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. WE WILL BE TALKING FEET OF SNOWFALL...ALLOWING FOR SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES TO LIKELY SETTLE IN NEAR AVERAGE FINALLY FOR
EARLY MARCH.

THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE
AND DISSIPATE WHILE DOING SO. THIS WILL TREND TEMPS DOWN AGAIN AND
LOWER SNOW LEVELS. IF THATS NOT ENOUGH...ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND DELIVERS ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR
AND INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RING OUT ANY LEFT OVER MOISTURE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FROM CENTRAL MT
CHAIN EAST WITH MT OBSCURATIONS THROUGH MOST THIS 24 HR FCST
PERIOD...BUT SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN. ALSO
PATCHES OF -SN TO SN OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE
SPOTTY AFTER DAWN. LVS/TCC WILL BE IMPACTED MOST WITH ROW ALSO
BEING IMPACTED TO SOME DEGREE. FARTHER WEST AREAS OF MVFR AND MORE
LOCALIZED IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO ROUGHLY MID MORN
FRI WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR YET SOME PATCHY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL MT
OBSCURATIONS. GAP WINDS INTO RIO GRANDE VALLEY ALSO TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY MORN FRI THEN DIMINISH TO SOME DEGREE. AWW TO BE
CONTINUED AT ABQ FOR NOW MORE DUE TO SN THAN WIND AS UP TO AN INCH
OR TWO OF SN TO ACCUMULATE THERE THROUGH 08Z...THOUGH SOME WIND
GUSTS STILL MAY APPROACH 30 TO 35 KT RANGE BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z.
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONALLY VSBY DUE TO SN IS EXPECTED AT
ABQ/SAF/AEG MAINLY THROUGH 08 TO 09Z WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
THEREAFTER...ESPEC AT ABQ. AEG AND SAF MAY EVEN SEE A FEW PERIODS
OF LIFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS AND THEREAFTER INTO
EARLY TO MID MORN DUE LARGELY TO FOG.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  41  30  47  32 /  70  80  60  70
DULCE...........................  33  22  38  27 / 100 100  70  80
CUBA............................  33  24  39  30 / 100  90  60  70
GALLUP..........................  44  31  47  32 /  60  40  50  70
EL MORRO........................  40  28  46  33 /  50  40  50  60
GRANTS..........................  38  26  48  31 /  50  40  40  40
QUEMADO.........................  46  31  49  37 /  20  20  20  40
GLENWOOD........................  59  37  62  41 /  10  10  30  50
CHAMA...........................  29  19  35  26 / 100 100  80  80
LOS ALAMOS......................  28  23  36  34 /  70  80  60  70
PECOS...........................  23  16  36  32 /  70  90  50  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  26  18  34  27 /  70 100  60  70
RED RIVER.......................  21  15  30  24 /  70 100  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  24  15  33  26 /  60  90  60  70
TAOS............................  28  21  36  30 /  60  80  60  70
MORA............................  24  15  36  30 /  70  70  40  60
ESPANOLA........................  33  25  41  32 /  50  60  40  60
SANTA FE........................  27  21  38  34 /  70  70  50  60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  29  20  40  32 /  60  70  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  35  26  46  38 /  60  50  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  37  27  50  36 /  50  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  38  28  51  37 /  50  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  38  27  50  36 /  60  50  30  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  40  28  53  36 /  50  30  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  36  27  47  35 /  60  50  30  40
SOCORRO.........................  47  31  58  39 /  50  20  10  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  29  21  40  35 /  70  70  40  50
TIJERAS.........................  32  23  45  35 /  60  60  40  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  27  17  43  31 /  70  60  30  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  23  16  38  31 /  80  60  30  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  34  22  45  37 /  60  40  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  41  28  53  39 /  30  20  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  35  25  49  36 /  50  30  20  10
CAPULIN.........................  18  10  30  23 /  50  50  30  30
RATON...........................  20  11  32  23 /  50  60  30  40
SPRINGER........................  22  12  34  24 /  60  60  30  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  20  13  33  28 /  70  70  40  40
CLAYTON.........................  17  12  31  23 /  60  50  20  20
ROY.............................  18  12  30  25 /  70  50  30  30
CONCHAS.........................  23  18  36  30 /  70  40  20  20
SANTA ROSA......................  24  19  36  30 /  70  40  20  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  22  17  39  30 /  80  30  20  10
CLOVIS..........................  22  17  39  31 /  70  30  20  10
PORTALES........................  23  18  41  32 /  70  30  20  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  25  20  41  32 /  70  30  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  30  24  50  34 /  50  30  10  10
PICACHO.........................  28  22  49  34 /  50  30  10  10
ELK.............................  30  22  52  37 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ504-507-508-525-526-530-534>540.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ520-524-528-529-531>533.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ516-518-519-521>523.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>515-527.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ517.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS65 KABQ 271032
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PARADE OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO WITH
AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEK. SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY THE MIDDLE OF TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT IT SHOULD CONTINUE AND ACTUALLY RE-
INTENSIFY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LIFT TO NEAR 8000 FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE FALLING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY AND WET SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE
MEASURED IN FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE DAMAGE TO
SOME STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO CAN EXPECT A GOOD SOAKING OF RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THIS MORNING.

A NEW BATCH OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AFTER STEERING A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE
AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF NEW MEXICO
THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS NM DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK.
ADDITIONAL STRONG DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS
TROUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE AREA WIDE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND WILL CAUSE SNOW
LEVELS TO LIFT AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD FALL TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FARTHER EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAJOR IMPACTS MAY NOT BE LIMITED TO VERY HEAVY SNOW. THERE IS A
RISK OF FLOODING DEVELOPING IN IN THE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BELOW 8000 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY...MAINLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. SIGNIFICANT
PERIOD OF HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE CURRENT WAVE WILL EXIT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM THIS MORNING AND
LEAVE BEHIND MANY AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND COLD TEMPS. THE
NEXT WAVE WILL SLIDE IN QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND SLAM
AREAS OF NORTHERN NM WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES YET
THIS SEASON.

BY WE ARE NOT DONE. A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND SET UP A MOIST WARM CONVEYOR
BELT OVER WESTERN NM THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL TREND SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SNOW
LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7500 FEET. SNOW MELT WILL BE A HUGE REGULATING
FACTOR FOR MAX/MIN RH VALUES CENTRAL AND EAST. HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. WE WILL BE TALKING FEET OF SNOWFALL...ALLOWING FOR SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES TO LIKELY SETTLE IN NEAR AVERAGE FINALLY FOR
EARLY MARCH.

THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE
AND DISSIPATE WHILE DOING SO. THIS WILL TREND TEMPS DOWN AGAIN AND
LOWER SNOW LEVELS. IF THATS NOT ENOUGH...ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND DELIVERS ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR
AND INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RING OUT ANY LEFT OVER MOISTURE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FROM CENTRAL MT
CHAIN EAST WITH MT OBSCURATIONS THROUGH MOST THIS 24 HR FCST
PERIOD...BUT SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN. ALSO
PATCHES OF -SN TO SN OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE
SPOTTY AFTER DAWN. LVS/TCC WILL BE IMPACTED MOST WITH ROW ALSO
BEING IMPACTED TO SOME DEGREE. FARTHER WEST AREAS OF MVFR AND MORE
LOCALIZED IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO ROUGHLY MID MORN
FRI WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR YET SOME PATCHY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL MT
OBSCURATIONS. GAP WINDS INTO RIO GRANDE VALLEY ALSO TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY MORN FRI THEN DIMINISH TO SOME DEGREE. AWW TO BE
CONTINUED AT ABQ FOR NOW MORE DUE TO SN THAN WIND AS UP TO AN INCH
OR TWO OF SN TO ACCUMULATE THERE THROUGH 08Z...THOUGH SOME WIND
GUSTS STILL MAY APPROACH 30 TO 35 KT RANGE BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z.
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONALLY VSBY DUE TO SN IS EXPECTED AT
ABQ/SAF/AEG MAINLY THROUGH 08 TO 09Z WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
THEREAFTER...ESPEC AT ABQ. AEG AND SAF MAY EVEN SEE A FEW PERIODS
OF LIFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS AND THEREAFTER INTO
EARLY TO MID MORN DUE LARGELY TO FOG.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  41  30  47  32 /  70  80  60  70
DULCE...........................  33  22  38  27 / 100 100  70  80
CUBA............................  33  24  39  30 / 100  90  60  70
GALLUP..........................  44  31  47  32 /  60  40  50  70
EL MORRO........................  40  28  46  33 /  50  40  50  60
GRANTS..........................  38  26  48  31 /  50  40  40  40
QUEMADO.........................  46  31  49  37 /  20  20  20  40
GLENWOOD........................  59  37  62  41 /  10  10  30  50
CHAMA...........................  29  19  35  26 / 100 100  80  80
LOS ALAMOS......................  28  23  36  34 /  70  80  60  70
PECOS...........................  23  16  36  32 /  70  90  50  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  26  18  34  27 /  70 100  60  70
RED RIVER.......................  21  15  30  24 /  70 100  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  24  15  33  26 /  60  90  60  70
TAOS............................  28  21  36  30 /  60  80  60  70
MORA............................  24  15  36  30 /  70  70  40  60
ESPANOLA........................  33  25  41  32 /  50  60  40  60
SANTA FE........................  27  21  38  34 /  70  70  50  60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  29  20  40  32 /  60  70  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  35  26  46  38 /  60  50  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  37  27  50  36 /  50  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  38  28  51  37 /  50  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  38  27  50  36 /  60  50  30  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  40  28  53  36 /  50  30  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  36  27  47  35 /  60  50  30  40
SOCORRO.........................  47  31  58  39 /  50  20  10  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  29  21  40  35 /  70  70  40  50
TIJERAS.........................  32  23  45  35 /  60  60  40  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  27  17  43  31 /  70  60  30  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  23  16  38  31 /  80  60  30  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  34  22  45  37 /  60  40  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  41  28  53  39 /  30  20  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  35  25  49  36 /  50  30  20  10
CAPULIN.........................  18  10  30  23 /  50  50  30  30
RATON...........................  20  11  32  23 /  50  60  30  40
SPRINGER........................  22  12  34  24 /  60  60  30  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  20  13  33  28 /  70  70  40  40
CLAYTON.........................  17  12  31  23 /  60  50  20  20
ROY.............................  18  12  30  25 /  70  50  30  30
CONCHAS.........................  23  18  36  30 /  70  40  20  20
SANTA ROSA......................  24  19  36  30 /  70  40  20  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  22  17  39  30 /  80  30  20  10
CLOVIS..........................  22  17  39  31 /  70  30  20  10
PORTALES........................  23  18  41  32 /  70  30  20  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  25  20  41  32 /  70  30  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  30  24  50  34 /  50  30  10  10
PICACHO.........................  28  22  49  34 /  50  30  10  10
ELK.............................  30  22  52  37 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ504-507-508-525-526-530-534>540.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ520-524-528-529-531>533.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ516-518-519-521>523.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>515-527.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ517.

&&

$$

44






000
FXUS65 KABQ 271032
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
332 AM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A PARADE OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT NEW MEXICO WITH
AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEK. SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY THE MIDDLE OF TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN AREAS...BUT IT SHOULD CONTINUE AND ACTUALLY RE-
INTENSIFY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. THE SNOW LEVEL WILL LIFT TO NEAR 8000 FEET SATURDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY...BEFORE FALLING AGAIN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
ADDITIONAL HEAVY AND WET SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH SUNDAY WILL BE
MEASURED IN FEET ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE DAMAGE TO
SOME STRUCTURES WILL BE POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...LOWER ELEVATIONS OF
NORTHWEST NEW MEXICO CAN EXPECT A GOOD SOAKING OF RAIN THIS
WEEKEND WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT AREAS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WITH ACCUMULATING SNOW THROUGH THIS MORNING.

A NEW BATCH OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DROPS SLOWLY SOUTHWARD INTO THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES. AFTER STEERING A CONTINUOUS STREAM OF MOISTURE
AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES OVER THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF NEW MEXICO
THROUGH SUNDAY...THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FORM A DEEP UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN THAT WILL SLOWLY SHIFT EASTWARD
ACROSS NM DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING WORK WEEK.
ADDITIONAL STRONG DISTURBANCES ARE PROGGED TO ROTATE THROUGH THIS
TROUGH WITH SIGNIFICANT ADDITIONAL PRECIPITATION ACCUMULATION
POSSIBLE AREA WIDE. SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND WILL CAUSE SNOW
LEVELS TO LIFT AS MENTIONED IN THE SYNOPSIS. HOWEVER...SNOW LEVELS
SHOULD FALL TO THE LOWEST ELEVATIONS AGAIN ACROSS WESTERN AREAS
MONDAY NIGHT...THEN FARTHER EAST BY TUESDAY NIGHT.

MAJOR IMPACTS MAY NOT BE LIMITED TO VERY HEAVY SNOW. THERE IS A
RISK OF FLOODING DEVELOPING IN IN THE NORTHERN AND WEST CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS BELOW 8000 FEET SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SUNDAY...MAINLY IN LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVE HEAVY SNOW TODAY THROUGH
SATURDAY MORNING.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. SIGNIFICANT
PERIOD OF HEAVY MOUNTAIN SNOWS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE CURRENT WAVE WILL EXIT CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM THIS MORNING AND
LEAVE BEHIND MANY AREAS OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AND COLD TEMPS. THE
NEXT WAVE WILL SLIDE IN QUICKLY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AND SLAM
AREAS OF NORTHERN NM WITH SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL RATES YET
THIS SEASON.

BY WE ARE NOT DONE. A VERY SLOW MOVING UPPER WAVE WILL SETTLE INTO
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND AND SET UP A MOIST WARM CONVEYOR
BELT OVER WESTERN NM THROUGH SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL TREND SIGNIFICANTLY
WARMER FOR CENTRAL AND EASTERN NM AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH SNOW
LEVELS RISING ABOVE 7500 FEET. SNOW MELT WILL BE A HUGE REGULATING
FACTOR FOR MAX/MIN RH VALUES CENTRAL AND EAST. HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES
WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST. WE WILL BE TALKING FEET OF SNOWFALL...ALLOWING FOR SNOW
WATER EQUIVALENT VALUES TO LIKELY SETTLE IN NEAR AVERAGE FINALLY FOR
EARLY MARCH.

THE SLOW MOVING TROUGH AXIS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE STATE
AND DISSIPATE WHILE DOING SO. THIS WILL TREND TEMPS DOWN AGAIN AND
LOWER SNOW LEVELS. IF THATS NOT ENOUGH...ANOTHER TROUGH SLIDES SOUTH
OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND DELIVERS ANOTHER BATCH OF COLD AIR
AND INSTABILITY. THIS WILL RING OUT ANY LEFT OVER MOISTURE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.

GUYER

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FROM CENTRAL MT
CHAIN EAST WITH MT OBSCURATIONS THROUGH MOST THIS 24 HR FCST
PERIOD...BUT SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN. ALSO
PATCHES OF -SN TO SN OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE
SPOTTY AFTER DAWN. LVS/TCC WILL BE IMPACTED MOST WITH ROW ALSO
BEING IMPACTED TO SOME DEGREE. FARTHER WEST AREAS OF MVFR AND MORE
LOCALIZED IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO ROUGHLY MID MORN
FRI WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR YET SOME PATCHY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL MT
OBSCURATIONS. GAP WINDS INTO RIO GRANDE VALLEY ALSO TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY MORN FRI THEN DIMINISH TO SOME DEGREE. AWW TO BE
CONTINUED AT ABQ FOR NOW MORE DUE TO SN THAN WIND AS UP TO AN INCH
OR TWO OF SN TO ACCUMULATE THERE THROUGH 08Z...THOUGH SOME WIND
GUSTS STILL MAY APPROACH 30 TO 35 KT RANGE BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z.
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONALLY VSBY DUE TO SN IS EXPECTED AT
ABQ/SAF/AEG MAINLY THROUGH 08 TO 09Z WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
THEREAFTER...ESPEC AT ABQ. AEG AND SAF MAY EVEN SEE A FEW PERIODS
OF LIFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS AND THEREAFTER INTO
EARLY TO MID MORN DUE LARGELY TO FOG.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  41  30  47  32 /  70  80  60  70
DULCE...........................  33  22  38  27 / 100 100  70  80
CUBA............................  33  24  39  30 / 100  90  60  70
GALLUP..........................  44  31  47  32 /  60  40  50  70
EL MORRO........................  40  28  46  33 /  50  40  50  60
GRANTS..........................  38  26  48  31 /  50  40  40  40
QUEMADO.........................  46  31  49  37 /  20  20  20  40
GLENWOOD........................  59  37  62  41 /  10  10  30  50
CHAMA...........................  29  19  35  26 / 100 100  80  80
LOS ALAMOS......................  28  23  36  34 /  70  80  60  70
PECOS...........................  23  16  36  32 /  70  90  50  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  26  18  34  27 /  70 100  60  70
RED RIVER.......................  21  15  30  24 /  70 100  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  24  15  33  26 /  60  90  60  70
TAOS............................  28  21  36  30 /  60  80  60  70
MORA............................  24  15  36  30 /  70  70  40  60
ESPANOLA........................  33  25  41  32 /  50  60  40  60
SANTA FE........................  27  21  38  34 /  70  70  50  60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  29  20  40  32 /  60  70  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  35  26  46  38 /  60  50  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  37  27  50  36 /  50  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  38  28  51  37 /  50  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  38  27  50  36 /  60  50  30  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  40  28  53  36 /  50  30  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  36  27  47  35 /  60  50  30  40
SOCORRO.........................  47  31  58  39 /  50  20  10  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  29  21  40  35 /  70  70  40  50
TIJERAS.........................  32  23  45  35 /  60  60  40  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  27  17  43  31 /  70  60  30  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  23  16  38  31 /  80  60  30  40
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  34  22  45  37 /  60  40  20  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  41  28  53  39 /  30  20  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  35  25  49  36 /  50  30  20  10
CAPULIN.........................  18  10  30  23 /  50  50  30  30
RATON...........................  20  11  32  23 /  50  60  30  40
SPRINGER........................  22  12  34  24 /  60  60  30  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  20  13  33  28 /  70  70  40  40
CLAYTON.........................  17  12  31  23 /  60  50  20  20
ROY.............................  18  12  30  25 /  70  50  30  30
CONCHAS.........................  23  18  36  30 /  70  40  20  20
SANTA ROSA......................  24  19  36  30 /  70  40  20  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  22  17  39  30 /  80  30  20  10
CLOVIS..........................  22  17  39  31 /  70  30  20  10
PORTALES........................  23  18  41  32 /  70  30  20  10
FORT SUMNER.....................  25  20  41  32 /  70  30  20  10
ROSWELL.........................  30  24  50  34 /  50  30  10  10
PICACHO.........................  28  22  49  34 /  50  30  10  10
ELK.............................  30  22  52  37 /  40  20  10  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ504-507-508-525-526-530-534>540.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ520-524-528-529-531>533.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ516-518-519-521>523.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM MST SUNDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>515-527.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ517.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS65 KABQ 270604 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1104 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FROM CENTRAL MT
CHAIN EAST WITH MT OBSCURATIONS THROUGH MOST THIS 24 HR FCST
PERIOD...BUT SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN. ALSO
PATCHES OF -SN TO SN OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE
SPOTTY AFTER DAWN. LVS/TCC WILL BE IMPACTED MOST WITH ROW ALSO
BEING IMPACTED TO SOME DEGREE. FARTHER WEST AREAS OF MVFR AND MORE
LOCALIZED IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO ROUGHLY MID MORN
FRI WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR YET SOME PATCHY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL MT
OBSCURATIONS. GAP WINDS INTO RIO GRANDE VALLEY ALSO TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY MORN FRI THEN DIMINISH TO SOME DEGREE. AWW TO BE
CONTINUED AT ABQ FOR NOW MORE DUE TO SN THAN WIND AS UP TO AN INCH
OR TWO OF SN TO ACCUMULATE THERE THROUGH 08Z...THOUGH SOME WIND
GUSTS STILL MAY APPROACH 30 TO 35 KT RANGE BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z.
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONALLY VSBY DUE TO SN IS EXPECTED AT
ABQ/SAF/AEG MAINLY THROUGH 08 TO 09Z WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
THEREAFTER...ESPEC AT ABQ. AEG AND SAF MAY EVEN SEE A FEW PERIODS
OF LIFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS AND THEREAFTER INTO
EARLY TO MID MORN DUE LARGELY TO FOG.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...731 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015...
.UPDATE...
NAM12 AND HRRR SHOW LARGER SNOW AMOUNTS OVER SOCCORO AND LINCOLN
COUNTY THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER JET SAGS FARTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AT KONM PRESENTLY...SO DECIDED TO GO AHEAD
WTIH SOME EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER AVISORIES. UPDATED ZFP AND WSW
ALREADY OUT.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES ALOFT BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY WELL BELOW AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF THE STATE WHERE READINGS ARE SOME 30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED BY
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AS THE WEEKEND UNFOLDS...ANOTHER POTENT
DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE INTO CALIFORNIA BEFORE SLOWLY SPREADING OVER
NEW MEXICO. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SAN JUAN OR TUSAS MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER WHERE TWO TO FOUR FEET OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
ABOVE TEN THOUSAND FEET. RAIN WILL FALL IN LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING
THIS WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IT HAS BEEN AN EXTREMELY BUSY SHIFT TODAY WITH A FOCUS ON WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS IN NOT ONLY THE NEAR TERM...BUT ALSO FOR THE NEXT
IMPENDING UPPER LOW THAT WILL BEGIN IMPACTING NM THIS WEEKEND.
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL OR RESPITE HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH REGARDS TO SNOW...BUT IT HAS NOT FULLY ENDED IN SOME OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN LOCALES. THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE IS
LOOKING HEALTHY ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...CURRENTLY JUST
WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...PERHAPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN
MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING. THIS WILL SPREAD SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS
ALOFT TO SATURATE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL THEN
SEED LOWER LEVELS AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
EAST/SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE RUNNING UP ON THE RESPECTIVE
SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SANGRES AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS
APPEAR TO BENEFIT THE MOST FROM THE UPSLOPE WHILE SATURATED MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL SEED LOWER LAYERS...INDUCING SNOW GROWTH.
IN ADDITION THE DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE REMAINING NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN ACCELERATING THROUGH
GAPS/CANYONS WITHIN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND AN EARLY
EVENING SURGE SHOULD ALLOW SPEEDS TO JUMP UP SEVERAL MPH AT KABQ
AND KSAF. THIS SHOULD SHADOW MUCH OF THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA
WITH REGARD TO SNOW...SO HIGHLIGHTS WERE HEDGED ON LOWER SIDE WITH
JUST AN ADVISORY.

AS THIS EVENING`S DISTURBANCE TRACKS INTO TX ON FRIDAY...SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOWARD MID DAY. SOME UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...KEEPING THOSE FAVORED AREAS PRECIPITATING AT LIGHT RATES.
SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS WILL NEED TO BE CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED TO
DECIDE ON EARLIER EXPIRATION FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN
COLDER IN MOST ZONES ON FRIDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD POOL CONTINUES
SEEPING WESTWARD. THIS WILL PUT MOST ZONES AT 10 TO 40 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INTERESTINGLY MODELS BREAK OUT NEW
BATCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF ANY BLATANT PERTURBATION
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...IT APPEARS THE TRIGGER IS SOME DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH JET DYNAMICS FAR AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DIVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME TO REFLECT
HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT MAY NOT HAVE
RAISED ENOUGH.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OVER
NORTHWESTERN TO WEST CENTRAL NM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD OVER CALIFORNIA AND DEEPENS
INTO A LOW...SHEDDING ENERGY INTO AZ/NM. THIS WILL BRING A
STIFFENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NM THAT WOULD HAVE GOOD
OROGRAPHICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WHILE ALSO ACTING AS A WARM
ADVECTION CATALYST. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
SAN JUAN/TUSAS AND JEMEZ ZONES STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND RUNNING
INTO SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CHALLENGES WILL ARISE FROM THE WARM
ADVECTION...INDUCING RISING SNOW LEVELS AND COMPLICATING THE SNOW
RATIOS. AT THIS POINT IT STILL APPEARS 2 TO 4 FEET OF NEW SNOW
WOULD BE REASONABLE IN THIS SCENARIO NEAR THE CO-NM BORDER ABOVE
10KFT. SNOW LEVELS WOULD LIKELY RISE TO NEAR 8000 TO 8500 FEET
SUNDAY...AND WHILE THIS MIGHT SUGGEST A LIMITING OF ACCUMULATIONS
AND IMPACTS...THE HYDROLOGY IMPACTS WILL HAVE TO BE STRONGLY
CONSIDERED. IF HEALTHY RAINFALL OCCURS OVER SOME OF THE SNOW
PACK...IN THE 7000 TO 9000 FT RANGE...SOME SUBSTANTIAL MELT AND
RUNOFF COULD OCCUR. WILL MONITOR THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

AS THE CA LOW FINALLY DRAGS NORTHEASTWARD OVER NM MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER PERTURBATION WILL DROP DOWN ON ITS HEELS
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY FEATURE
COULD ALLOW A VERY COLD DOME TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO NM...BUT IT
WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE CABOOSE ON THE RECENT STORM TRAIN.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ACTIVE WINTER
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS OVER THE STATE. TEMPS AREAWIDE
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH
HUMIDITY.

GUSTY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AND FAVOR CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BE CONFINED TO OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE DURING THIS PERIOD
AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS MORE OF
AN  UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AREAS DURING
THIS SAME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
AREAS ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
VERY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.

MORE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL FOLLOW MONDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS. EASTERN AREAS SHOULD GET INTO THE ACTION BY MIDWEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN THE EAST...COOLER IN THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY..THEN COOLING ALL OVER WEDNESDAY.

VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER ON FRIDAY DUE TO LOWER MIXING
HEIGHTS AND IMPACTS FROM THE BACK DOOR COLD PUSH. VENTILATION WILL
IMPROVE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS UNSETTLED AND HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS EXIST.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ504-507-508-520-524>526-530-533>540.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>516-527>529-531-532.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ517-519.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510-511-518-521>523.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 270604 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1104 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE FROM CENTRAL MT
CHAIN EAST WITH MT OBSCURATIONS THROUGH MOST THIS 24 HR FCST
PERIOD...BUT SOME SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE IN THE AFTN. ALSO
PATCHES OF -SN TO SN OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MUCH MORE
SPOTTY AFTER DAWN. LVS/TCC WILL BE IMPACTED MOST WITH ROW ALSO
BEING IMPACTED TO SOME DEGREE. FARTHER WEST AREAS OF MVFR AND MORE
LOCALIZED IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT LEAST INTO ROUGHLY MID MORN
FRI WITH IMPROVEMENT TO VFR YET SOME PATCHY MVFR WITH OCCASIONAL MT
OBSCURATIONS. GAP WINDS INTO RIO GRANDE VALLEY ALSO TO CONTINUE
THROUGH EARLY MORN FRI THEN DIMINISH TO SOME DEGREE. AWW TO BE
CONTINUED AT ABQ FOR NOW MORE DUE TO SN THAN WIND AS UP TO AN INCH
OR TWO OF SN TO ACCUMULATE THERE THROUGH 08Z...THOUGH SOME WIND
GUSTS STILL MAY APPROACH 30 TO 35 KT RANGE BETWEEN 07Z AND 10Z.
IFR/MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONALLY VSBY DUE TO SN IS EXPECTED AT
ABQ/SAF/AEG MAINLY THROUGH 08 TO 09Z WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT
THEREAFTER...ESPEC AT ABQ. AEG AND SAF MAY EVEN SEE A FEW PERIODS
OF LIFR CONDITIONS DURING HEAVIER SNOW BURSTS AND THEREAFTER INTO
EARLY TO MID MORN DUE LARGELY TO FOG.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...731 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015...
.UPDATE...
NAM12 AND HRRR SHOW LARGER SNOW AMOUNTS OVER SOCCORO AND LINCOLN
COUNTY THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER JET SAGS FARTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AT KONM PRESENTLY...SO DECIDED TO GO AHEAD
WTIH SOME EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER AVISORIES. UPDATED ZFP AND WSW
ALREADY OUT.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES ALOFT BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY WELL BELOW AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF THE STATE WHERE READINGS ARE SOME 30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED BY
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AS THE WEEKEND UNFOLDS...ANOTHER POTENT
DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE INTO CALIFORNIA BEFORE SLOWLY SPREADING OVER
NEW MEXICO. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SAN JUAN OR TUSAS MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER WHERE TWO TO FOUR FEET OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
ABOVE TEN THOUSAND FEET. RAIN WILL FALL IN LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING
THIS WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IT HAS BEEN AN EXTREMELY BUSY SHIFT TODAY WITH A FOCUS ON WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS IN NOT ONLY THE NEAR TERM...BUT ALSO FOR THE NEXT
IMPENDING UPPER LOW THAT WILL BEGIN IMPACTING NM THIS WEEKEND.
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL OR RESPITE HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH REGARDS TO SNOW...BUT IT HAS NOT FULLY ENDED IN SOME OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN LOCALES. THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE IS
LOOKING HEALTHY ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...CURRENTLY JUST
WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...PERHAPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN
MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING. THIS WILL SPREAD SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS
ALOFT TO SATURATE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL THEN
SEED LOWER LEVELS AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
EAST/SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE RUNNING UP ON THE RESPECTIVE
SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SANGRES AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS
APPEAR TO BENEFIT THE MOST FROM THE UPSLOPE WHILE SATURATED MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL SEED LOWER LAYERS...INDUCING SNOW GROWTH.
IN ADDITION THE DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE REMAINING NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN ACCELERATING THROUGH
GAPS/CANYONS WITHIN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND AN EARLY
EVENING SURGE SHOULD ALLOW SPEEDS TO JUMP UP SEVERAL MPH AT KABQ
AND KSAF. THIS SHOULD SHADOW MUCH OF THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA
WITH REGARD TO SNOW...SO HIGHLIGHTS WERE HEDGED ON LOWER SIDE WITH
JUST AN ADVISORY.

AS THIS EVENING`S DISTURBANCE TRACKS INTO TX ON FRIDAY...SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOWARD MID DAY. SOME UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...KEEPING THOSE FAVORED AREAS PRECIPITATING AT LIGHT RATES.
SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS WILL NEED TO BE CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED TO
DECIDE ON EARLIER EXPIRATION FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN
COLDER IN MOST ZONES ON FRIDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD POOL CONTINUES
SEEPING WESTWARD. THIS WILL PUT MOST ZONES AT 10 TO 40 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INTERESTINGLY MODELS BREAK OUT NEW
BATCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF ANY BLATANT PERTURBATION
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...IT APPEARS THE TRIGGER IS SOME DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH JET DYNAMICS FAR AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DIVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME TO REFLECT
HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT MAY NOT HAVE
RAISED ENOUGH.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OVER
NORTHWESTERN TO WEST CENTRAL NM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD OVER CALIFORNIA AND DEEPENS
INTO A LOW...SHEDDING ENERGY INTO AZ/NM. THIS WILL BRING A
STIFFENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NM THAT WOULD HAVE GOOD
OROGRAPHICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WHILE ALSO ACTING AS A WARM
ADVECTION CATALYST. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
SAN JUAN/TUSAS AND JEMEZ ZONES STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND RUNNING
INTO SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CHALLENGES WILL ARISE FROM THE WARM
ADVECTION...INDUCING RISING SNOW LEVELS AND COMPLICATING THE SNOW
RATIOS. AT THIS POINT IT STILL APPEARS 2 TO 4 FEET OF NEW SNOW
WOULD BE REASONABLE IN THIS SCENARIO NEAR THE CO-NM BORDER ABOVE
10KFT. SNOW LEVELS WOULD LIKELY RISE TO NEAR 8000 TO 8500 FEET
SUNDAY...AND WHILE THIS MIGHT SUGGEST A LIMITING OF ACCUMULATIONS
AND IMPACTS...THE HYDROLOGY IMPACTS WILL HAVE TO BE STRONGLY
CONSIDERED. IF HEALTHY RAINFALL OCCURS OVER SOME OF THE SNOW
PACK...IN THE 7000 TO 9000 FT RANGE...SOME SUBSTANTIAL MELT AND
RUNOFF COULD OCCUR. WILL MONITOR THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

AS THE CA LOW FINALLY DRAGS NORTHEASTWARD OVER NM MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER PERTURBATION WILL DROP DOWN ON ITS HEELS
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY FEATURE
COULD ALLOW A VERY COLD DOME TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO NM...BUT IT
WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE CABOOSE ON THE RECENT STORM TRAIN.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ACTIVE WINTER
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS OVER THE STATE. TEMPS AREAWIDE
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH
HUMIDITY.

GUSTY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AND FAVOR CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BE CONFINED TO OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE DURING THIS PERIOD
AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS MORE OF
AN  UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AREAS DURING
THIS SAME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
AREAS ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
VERY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.

MORE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL FOLLOW MONDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS. EASTERN AREAS SHOULD GET INTO THE ACTION BY MIDWEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN THE EAST...COOLER IN THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY..THEN COOLING ALL OVER WEDNESDAY.

VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER ON FRIDAY DUE TO LOWER MIXING
HEIGHTS AND IMPACTS FROM THE BACK DOOR COLD PUSH. VENTILATION WILL
IMPROVE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS UNSETTLED AND HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS EXIST.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ504-507-508-520-524>526-530-533>540.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>516-527>529-531-532.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ517-519.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510-511-518-521>523.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 270231
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
731 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
NAM12 AND HRRR SHOW LARGER SNOW AMOUNTS OVER SOCCORO AND LINCOLN
COUNTY THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER JET SAGS FARTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AT KONM PRESENTLY...SO DECIDED TO GO AHEAD
WTIH SOME EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER AVISORIES. UPDATED ZFP AND WSW
ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...513 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FROM CENTRAL MT CHAIN
EAST WITH MT OBSCURATIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS 24 HR
FCST PERIOD. ALSO PATCHES OF -SN TO SN. LVS/TCC WILL BE IMPACTED
MOST WITH ROW ALSO BEING IMPACTED TO SOME DEGREE. FARTHER WEST
AREAS OF MVFR AND MORE LOCALIZED IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT LEAST
INTO ROUGHLY MID MORN FRI. GAP WINDS INTO RIO GRANDE VALLEY ALSO
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORN FRI THEN DIMINISH TO SOME DEGREE.
AT AND NEAR ABQ GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT AT TIMES BETWEEN 02Z OR
03Z UNTIL ABOUT 10Z. AWW MAY BE ISSUED VERY EARLY THIS EVE FOR ABQ
DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS AND OR SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...BUT
TOUGH CALL AS CONFIDENCE FOR GUSTS THAT HIGH OR SNOW ACCUM OF AN
INCH OR MORE IS NOT THAT HIGH. IFR/MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONALLY VSBY
DUE TO SN IS EXPECTED AT ABQ/SAF/AEG MAINLY BETWEEN 02Z AND 09Z
AND FOR GUP AND FMN TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES ALOFT BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY WELL BELOW AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF THE STATE WHERE READINGS ARE SOME 30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED BY
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AS THE WEEKEND UNFOLDS...ANOTHER POTENT
DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE INTO CALIFORNIA BEFORE SLOWLY SPREADING OVER
NEW MEXICO. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SAN JUAN OR TUSAS MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER WHERE TWO TO FOUR FEET OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
ABOVE TEN THOUSAND FEET. RAIN WILL FALL IN LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING
THIS WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IT HAS BEEN AN EXTREMELY BUSY SHIFT TODAY WITH A FOCUS ON WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS IN NOT ONLY THE NEAR TERM...BUT ALSO FOR THE NEXT
IMPENDING UPPER LOW THAT WILL BEGIN IMPACTING NM THIS WEEKEND.
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL OR RESPITE HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH REGARDS TO SNOW...BUT IT HAS NOT FULLY ENDED IN SOME OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN LOCALES. THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE IS
LOOKING HEALTHY ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...CURRENTLY JUST
WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...PERHAPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN
MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING. THIS WILL SPREAD SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS
ALOFT TO SATURATE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL THEN
SEED LOWER LEVELS AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
EAST/SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE RUNNING UP ON THE RESPECTIVE
SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SANGRES AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS
APPEAR TO BENEFIT THE MOST FROM THE UPSLOPE WHILE SATURATED MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL SEED LOWER LAYERS...INDUCING SNOW GROWTH.
IN ADDITION THE DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE REMAINING NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN ACCELERATING THROUGH
GAPS/CANYONS WITHIN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND AN EARLY
EVENING SURGE SHOULD ALLOW SPEEDS TO JUMP UP SEVERAL MPH AT KABQ
AND KSAF. THIS SHOULD SHADOW MUCH OF THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA
WITH REGARD TO SNOW...SO HIGHLIGHTS WERE HEDGED ON LOWER SIDE WITH
JUST AN ADVISORY.

AS THIS EVENING`S DISTURBANCE TRACKS INTO TX ON FRIDAY...SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOWARD MID DAY. SOME UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...KEEPING THOSE FAVORED AREAS PRECIPITATING AT LIGHT RATES.
SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS WILL NEED TO BE CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED TO
DECIDE ON EARLIER EXPIRATION FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN
COLDER IN MOST ZONES ON FRIDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD POOL CONTINUES
SEEPING WESTWARD. THIS WILL PUT MOST ZONES AT 10 TO 40 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INTERESTINGLY MODELS BREAK OUT NEW
BATCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF ANY BLATANT PERTURBATION
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...IT APPEARS THE TRIGGER IS SOME DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH JET DYNAMICS FAR AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DIVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME TO REFLECT
HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT MAY NOT HAVE
RAISED ENOUGH.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OVER
NORTHWESTERN TO WEST CENTRAL NM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD OVER CALIFORNIA AND DEEPENS
INTO A LOW...SHEDDING ENERGY INTO AZ/NM. THIS WILL BRING A
STIFFENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NM THAT WOULD HAVE GOOD
OROGRAPHICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WHILE ALSO ACTING AS A WARM
ADVECTION CATALYST. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
SAN JUAN/TUSAS AND JEMEZ ZONES STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND RUNNING
INTO SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CHALLENGES WILL ARISE FROM THE WARM
ADVECTION...INDUCING RISING SNOW LEVELS AND COMPLICATING THE SNOW
RATIOS. AT THIS POINT IT STILL APPEARS 2 TO 4 FEET OF NEW SNOW
WOULD BE REASONABLE IN THIS SCENARIO NEAR THE CO-NM BORDER ABOVE
10KFT. SNOW LEVELS WOULD LIKELY RISE TO NEAR 8000 TO 8500 FEET
SUNDAY...AND WHILE THIS MIGHT SUGGEST A LIMITING OF ACCUMULATIONS
AND IMPACTS...THE HYDROLOGY IMPACTS WILL HAVE TO BE STRONGLY
CONSIDERED. IF HEALTHY RAINFALL OCCURS OVER SOME OF THE SNOW
PACK...IN THE 7000 TO 9000 FT RANGE...SOME SUBSTANTIAL MELT AND
RUNOFF COULD OCCUR. WILL MONITOR THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

AS THE CA LOW FINALLY DRAGS NORTHEASTWARD OVER NM MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER PERTURBATION WILL DROP DOWN ON ITS HEELS
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY FEATURE
COULD ALLOW A VERY COLD DOME TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO NM...BUT IT
WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE CABOOSE ON THE RECENT STORM TRAIN.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ACTIVE WINTER
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS OVER THE STATE. TEMPS AREAWIDE
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH
HUMIDITY.

GUSTY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AND FAVOR CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BE CONFINED TO OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE DURING THIS PERIOD
AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS MORE OF
AN  UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AREAS DURING
THIS SAME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
AREAS ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
VERY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.

MORE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL FOLLOW MONDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS. EASTERN AREAS SHOULD GET INTO THE ACTION BY MIDWEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN THE EAST...COOLER IN THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY..THEN COOLING ALL OVER WEDNESDAY.

VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER ON FRIDAY DUE TO LOWER MIXING
HEIGHTS AND IMPACTS FROM THE BACK DOOR COLD PUSH. VENTILATION WILL
IMPROVE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS UNSETTLED AND HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS EXIST.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ504-507-508-520-524>526-530-533>540.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>516-527>529-531-532.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ517-519.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510-511-518-521>523.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 270231
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
731 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
NAM12 AND HRRR SHOW LARGER SNOW AMOUNTS OVER SOCCORO AND LINCOLN
COUNTY THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED...AS UPPER JET SAGS FARTHER SOUTH
TONIGHT. LIGHT SNOW AT KONM PRESENTLY...SO DECIDED TO GO AHEAD
WTIH SOME EXPANDED WINTER WEATHER AVISORIES. UPDATED ZFP AND WSW
ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...513 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FROM CENTRAL MT CHAIN
EAST WITH MT OBSCURATIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS 24 HR
FCST PERIOD. ALSO PATCHES OF -SN TO SN. LVS/TCC WILL BE IMPACTED
MOST WITH ROW ALSO BEING IMPACTED TO SOME DEGREE. FARTHER WEST
AREAS OF MVFR AND MORE LOCALIZED IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT LEAST
INTO ROUGHLY MID MORN FRI. GAP WINDS INTO RIO GRANDE VALLEY ALSO
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORN FRI THEN DIMINISH TO SOME DEGREE.
AT AND NEAR ABQ GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT AT TIMES BETWEEN 02Z OR
03Z UNTIL ABOUT 10Z. AWW MAY BE ISSUED VERY EARLY THIS EVE FOR ABQ
DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS AND OR SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...BUT
TOUGH CALL AS CONFIDENCE FOR GUSTS THAT HIGH OR SNOW ACCUM OF AN
INCH OR MORE IS NOT THAT HIGH. IFR/MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONALLY VSBY
DUE TO SN IS EXPECTED AT ABQ/SAF/AEG MAINLY BETWEEN 02Z AND 09Z
AND FOR GUP AND FMN TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES ALOFT BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY WELL BELOW AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF THE STATE WHERE READINGS ARE SOME 30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED BY
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AS THE WEEKEND UNFOLDS...ANOTHER POTENT
DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE INTO CALIFORNIA BEFORE SLOWLY SPREADING OVER
NEW MEXICO. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SAN JUAN OR TUSAS MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER WHERE TWO TO FOUR FEET OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
ABOVE TEN THOUSAND FEET. RAIN WILL FALL IN LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING
THIS WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IT HAS BEEN AN EXTREMELY BUSY SHIFT TODAY WITH A FOCUS ON WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS IN NOT ONLY THE NEAR TERM...BUT ALSO FOR THE NEXT
IMPENDING UPPER LOW THAT WILL BEGIN IMPACTING NM THIS WEEKEND.
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL OR RESPITE HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH REGARDS TO SNOW...BUT IT HAS NOT FULLY ENDED IN SOME OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN LOCALES. THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE IS
LOOKING HEALTHY ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...CURRENTLY JUST
WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...PERHAPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN
MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING. THIS WILL SPREAD SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS
ALOFT TO SATURATE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL THEN
SEED LOWER LEVELS AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
EAST/SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE RUNNING UP ON THE RESPECTIVE
SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SANGRES AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS
APPEAR TO BENEFIT THE MOST FROM THE UPSLOPE WHILE SATURATED MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL SEED LOWER LAYERS...INDUCING SNOW GROWTH.
IN ADDITION THE DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE REMAINING NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN ACCELERATING THROUGH
GAPS/CANYONS WITHIN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND AN EARLY
EVENING SURGE SHOULD ALLOW SPEEDS TO JUMP UP SEVERAL MPH AT KABQ
AND KSAF. THIS SHOULD SHADOW MUCH OF THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA
WITH REGARD TO SNOW...SO HIGHLIGHTS WERE HEDGED ON LOWER SIDE WITH
JUST AN ADVISORY.

AS THIS EVENING`S DISTURBANCE TRACKS INTO TX ON FRIDAY...SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOWARD MID DAY. SOME UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...KEEPING THOSE FAVORED AREAS PRECIPITATING AT LIGHT RATES.
SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS WILL NEED TO BE CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED TO
DECIDE ON EARLIER EXPIRATION FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN
COLDER IN MOST ZONES ON FRIDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD POOL CONTINUES
SEEPING WESTWARD. THIS WILL PUT MOST ZONES AT 10 TO 40 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INTERESTINGLY MODELS BREAK OUT NEW
BATCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF ANY BLATANT PERTURBATION
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...IT APPEARS THE TRIGGER IS SOME DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH JET DYNAMICS FAR AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DIVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME TO REFLECT
HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT MAY NOT HAVE
RAISED ENOUGH.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OVER
NORTHWESTERN TO WEST CENTRAL NM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD OVER CALIFORNIA AND DEEPENS
INTO A LOW...SHEDDING ENERGY INTO AZ/NM. THIS WILL BRING A
STIFFENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NM THAT WOULD HAVE GOOD
OROGRAPHICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WHILE ALSO ACTING AS A WARM
ADVECTION CATALYST. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
SAN JUAN/TUSAS AND JEMEZ ZONES STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND RUNNING
INTO SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CHALLENGES WILL ARISE FROM THE WARM
ADVECTION...INDUCING RISING SNOW LEVELS AND COMPLICATING THE SNOW
RATIOS. AT THIS POINT IT STILL APPEARS 2 TO 4 FEET OF NEW SNOW
WOULD BE REASONABLE IN THIS SCENARIO NEAR THE CO-NM BORDER ABOVE
10KFT. SNOW LEVELS WOULD LIKELY RISE TO NEAR 8000 TO 8500 FEET
SUNDAY...AND WHILE THIS MIGHT SUGGEST A LIMITING OF ACCUMULATIONS
AND IMPACTS...THE HYDROLOGY IMPACTS WILL HAVE TO BE STRONGLY
CONSIDERED. IF HEALTHY RAINFALL OCCURS OVER SOME OF THE SNOW
PACK...IN THE 7000 TO 9000 FT RANGE...SOME SUBSTANTIAL MELT AND
RUNOFF COULD OCCUR. WILL MONITOR THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

AS THE CA LOW FINALLY DRAGS NORTHEASTWARD OVER NM MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER PERTURBATION WILL DROP DOWN ON ITS HEELS
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY FEATURE
COULD ALLOW A VERY COLD DOME TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO NM...BUT IT
WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE CABOOSE ON THE RECENT STORM TRAIN.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ACTIVE WINTER
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS OVER THE STATE. TEMPS AREAWIDE
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH
HUMIDITY.

GUSTY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AND FAVOR CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BE CONFINED TO OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE DURING THIS PERIOD
AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS MORE OF
AN  UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AREAS DURING
THIS SAME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
AREAS ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
VERY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.

MORE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL FOLLOW MONDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS. EASTERN AREAS SHOULD GET INTO THE ACTION BY MIDWEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN THE EAST...COOLER IN THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY..THEN COOLING ALL OVER WEDNESDAY.

VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER ON FRIDAY DUE TO LOWER MIXING
HEIGHTS AND IMPACTS FROM THE BACK DOOR COLD PUSH. VENTILATION WILL
IMPROVE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS UNSETTLED AND HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS EXIST.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ504-507-508-520-524>526-530-533>540.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>516-527>529-531-532.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ517-519.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510-511-518-521>523.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 270013
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
513 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FROM CENTRAL MT CHAIN
EAST WITH MT OBSCURATIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS 24 HR
FCST PERIOD. ALSO PATCHES OF -SN TO SN. LVS/TCC WILL BE IMPACTED
MOST WITH ROW ALSO BEING IMPACTED TO SOME DEGREE. FARTHER WEST
AREAS OF MVFR AND MORE LOCALIZED IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT LEAST
INTO ROUGHLY MID MORN FRI. GAP WINDS INTO RIO GRANDE VALLEY ALSO
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORN FRI THEN DIMINISH TO SOME DEGREE.
AT AND NEAR ABQ GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT AT TIMES BETWEEN 02Z OR
03Z UNTIL ABOUT 10Z. AWW MAY BE ISSUED VERY EARLY THIS EVE FOR ABQ
DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS AND OR SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...BUT
TOUGH CALL AS CONFIDENCE FOR GUSTS THAT HIGH OR SNOW ACCUM OF AN
INCH OR MORE IS NOT THAT HIGH. IFR/MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONALLY VSBY
DUE TO SN IS EXPECTED AT ABQ/SAF/AEG MAINLY BETWEEN 02Z AND 09Z
AND FOR GUP AND FMN TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES ALOFT BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY WELL BELOW AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF THE STATE WHERE READINGS ARE SOME 30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED BY
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AS THE WEEKEND UNFOLDS...ANOTHER POTENT
DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE INTO CALIFORNIA BEFORE SLOWLY SPREADING OVER
NEW MEXICO. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SAN JUAN OR TUSAS MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER WHERE TWO TO FOUR FEET OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
ABOVE TEN THOUSAND FEET. RAIN WILL FALL IN LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING
THIS WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IT HAS BEEN AN EXTREMELY BUSY SHIFT TODAY WITH A FOCUS ON WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS IN NOT ONLY THE NEAR TERM...BUT ALSO FOR THE NEXT
IMPENDING UPPER LOW THAT WILL BEGIN IMPACTING NM THIS WEEKEND.
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL OR RESPITE HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH REGARDS TO SNOW...BUT IT HAS NOT FULLY ENDED IN SOME OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN LOCALES. THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE IS
LOOKING HEALTHY ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...CURRENTLY JUST
WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...PERHAPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN
MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING. THIS WILL SPREAD SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS
ALOFT TO SATURATE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL THEN
SEED LOWER LEVELS AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
EAST/SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE RUNNING UP ON THE RESPECTIVE
SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SANGRES AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS
APPEAR TO BENEFIT THE MOST FROM THE UPSLOPE WHILE SATURATED MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL SEED LOWER LAYERS...INDUCING SNOW GROWTH.
IN ADDITION THE DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE REMAINING NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN ACCELERATING THROUGH
GAPS/CANYONS WITHIN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND AN EARLY
EVENING SURGE SHOULD ALLOW SPEEDS TO JUMP UP SEVERAL MPH AT KABQ
AND KSAF. THIS SHOULD SHADOW MUCH OF THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA
WITH REGARD TO SNOW...SO HIGHLIGHTS WERE HEDGED ON LOWER SIDE WITH
JUST AN ADVISORY.

AS THIS EVENING`S DISTURBANCE TRACKS INTO TX ON FRIDAY...SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOWARD MID DAY. SOME UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...KEEPING THOSE FAVORED AREAS PRECIPITATING AT LIGHT RATES.
SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS WILL NEED TO BE CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED TO
DECIDE ON EARLIER EXPIRATION FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN
COLDER IN MOST ZONES ON FRIDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD POOL CONTINUES
SEEPING WESTWARD. THIS WILL PUT MOST ZONES AT 10 TO 40 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INTERESTINGLY MODELS BREAK OUT NEW
BATCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF ANY BLATANT PERTURBATION
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...IT APPEARS THE TRIGGER IS SOME DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH JET DYNAMICS FAR AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DIVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME TO REFLECT
HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT MAY NOT HAVE
RAISED ENOUGH.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OVER
NORTHWESTERN TO WEST CENTRAL NM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD OVER CALIFORNIA AND DEEPENS
INTO A LOW...SHEDDING ENERGY INTO AZ/NM. THIS WILL BRING A
STIFFENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NM THAT WOULD HAVE GOOD
OROGRAPHICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WHILE ALSO ACTING AS A WARM
ADVECTION CATALYST. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
SAN JUAN/TUSAS AND JEMEZ ZONES STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND RUNNING
INTO SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CHALLENGES WILL ARISE FROM THE WARM
ADVECTION...INDUCING RISING SNOW LEVELS AND COMPLICATING THE SNOW
RATIOS. AT THIS POINT IT STILL APPEARS 2 TO 4 FEET OF NEW SNOW
WOULD BE REASONABLE IN THIS SCENARIO NEAR THE CO-NM BORDER ABOVE
10KFT. SNOW LEVELS WOULD LIKELY RISE TO NEAR 8000 TO 8500 FEET
SUNDAY...AND WHILE THIS MIGHT SUGGEST A LIMITING OF ACCUMULATIONS
AND IMPACTS...THE HYDROLOGY IMPACTS WILL HAVE TO BE STRONGLY
CONSIDERED. IF HEALTHY RAINFALL OCCURS OVER SOME OF THE SNOW
PACK...IN THE 7000 TO 9000 FT RANGE...SOME SUBSTANTIAL MELT AND
RUNOFF COULD OCCUR. WILL MONITOR THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

AS THE CA LOW FINALLY DRAGS NORTHEASTWARD OVER NM MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER PERTURBATION WILL DROP DOWN ON ITS HEELS
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY FEATURE
COULD ALLOW A VERY COLD DOME TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO NM...BUT IT
WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE CABOOSE ON THE RECENT STORM TRAIN.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ACTIVE WINTER
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS OVER THE STATE. TEMPS AREAWIDE
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH
HUMIDITY.

GUSTY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AND FAVOR CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BE CONFINED TO OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE DURING THIS PERIOD
AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS MORE OF
AN  UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AREAS DURING
THIS SAME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
AREAS ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
VERY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.

MORE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL FOLLOW MONDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS. EASTERN AREAS SHOULD GET INTO THE ACTION BY MIDWEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN THE EAST...COOLER IN THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY..THEN COOLING ALL OVER WEDNESDAY.

VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER ON FRIDAY DUE TO LOWER MIXING
HEIGHTS AND IMPACTS FROM THE BACK DOOR COLD PUSH. VENTILATION WILL
IMPROVE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS UNSETTLED AND HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS EXIST.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ524-526-536-537-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>516-527>529-531-532.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ517-519.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510-511-518-521>523.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 270013
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
513 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS FROM CENTRAL MT CHAIN
EAST WITH MT OBSCURATIONS THROUGH MOST IF NOT ALL OF THIS 24 HR
FCST PERIOD. ALSO PATCHES OF -SN TO SN. LVS/TCC WILL BE IMPACTED
MOST WITH ROW ALSO BEING IMPACTED TO SOME DEGREE. FARTHER WEST
AREAS OF MVFR AND MORE LOCALIZED IFR CIGS CAN BE EXPECTED AT LEAST
INTO ROUGHLY MID MORN FRI. GAP WINDS INTO RIO GRANDE VALLEY ALSO
TO CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MORN FRI THEN DIMINISH TO SOME DEGREE.
AT AND NEAR ABQ GUSTS MAY APPROACH 35 KT AT TIMES BETWEEN 02Z OR
03Z UNTIL ABOUT 10Z. AWW MAY BE ISSUED VERY EARLY THIS EVE FOR ABQ
DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS AND OR SNOW ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL...BUT
TOUGH CALL AS CONFIDENCE FOR GUSTS THAT HIGH OR SNOW ACCUM OF AN
INCH OR MORE IS NOT THAT HIGH. IFR/MVFR CIGS AND OCCASIONALLY VSBY
DUE TO SN IS EXPECTED AT ABQ/SAF/AEG MAINLY BETWEEN 02Z AND 09Z
AND FOR GUP AND FMN TO A SLIGHTLY LESSER DEGREE.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES ALOFT BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY WELL BELOW AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF THE STATE WHERE READINGS ARE SOME 30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED BY
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AS THE WEEKEND UNFOLDS...ANOTHER POTENT
DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE INTO CALIFORNIA BEFORE SLOWLY SPREADING OVER
NEW MEXICO. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SAN JUAN OR TUSAS MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER WHERE TWO TO FOUR FEET OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
ABOVE TEN THOUSAND FEET. RAIN WILL FALL IN LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING
THIS WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IT HAS BEEN AN EXTREMELY BUSY SHIFT TODAY WITH A FOCUS ON WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS IN NOT ONLY THE NEAR TERM...BUT ALSO FOR THE NEXT
IMPENDING UPPER LOW THAT WILL BEGIN IMPACTING NM THIS WEEKEND.
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL OR RESPITE HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH REGARDS TO SNOW...BUT IT HAS NOT FULLY ENDED IN SOME OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN LOCALES. THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE IS
LOOKING HEALTHY ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...CURRENTLY JUST
WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...PERHAPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN
MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING. THIS WILL SPREAD SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS
ALOFT TO SATURATE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL THEN
SEED LOWER LEVELS AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
EAST/SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE RUNNING UP ON THE RESPECTIVE
SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SANGRES AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS
APPEAR TO BENEFIT THE MOST FROM THE UPSLOPE WHILE SATURATED MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL SEED LOWER LAYERS...INDUCING SNOW GROWTH.
IN ADDITION THE DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE REMAINING NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN ACCELERATING THROUGH
GAPS/CANYONS WITHIN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND AN EARLY
EVENING SURGE SHOULD ALLOW SPEEDS TO JUMP UP SEVERAL MPH AT KABQ
AND KSAF. THIS SHOULD SHADOW MUCH OF THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA
WITH REGARD TO SNOW...SO HIGHLIGHTS WERE HEDGED ON LOWER SIDE WITH
JUST AN ADVISORY.

AS THIS EVENING`S DISTURBANCE TRACKS INTO TX ON FRIDAY...SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOWARD MID DAY. SOME UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...KEEPING THOSE FAVORED AREAS PRECIPITATING AT LIGHT RATES.
SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS WILL NEED TO BE CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED TO
DECIDE ON EARLIER EXPIRATION FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN
COLDER IN MOST ZONES ON FRIDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD POOL CONTINUES
SEEPING WESTWARD. THIS WILL PUT MOST ZONES AT 10 TO 40 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INTERESTINGLY MODELS BREAK OUT NEW
BATCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF ANY BLATANT PERTURBATION
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...IT APPEARS THE TRIGGER IS SOME DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH JET DYNAMICS FAR AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DIVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME TO REFLECT
HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT MAY NOT HAVE
RAISED ENOUGH.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OVER
NORTHWESTERN TO WEST CENTRAL NM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD OVER CALIFORNIA AND DEEPENS
INTO A LOW...SHEDDING ENERGY INTO AZ/NM. THIS WILL BRING A
STIFFENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NM THAT WOULD HAVE GOOD
OROGRAPHICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WHILE ALSO ACTING AS A WARM
ADVECTION CATALYST. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
SAN JUAN/TUSAS AND JEMEZ ZONES STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND RUNNING
INTO SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CHALLENGES WILL ARISE FROM THE WARM
ADVECTION...INDUCING RISING SNOW LEVELS AND COMPLICATING THE SNOW
RATIOS. AT THIS POINT IT STILL APPEARS 2 TO 4 FEET OF NEW SNOW
WOULD BE REASONABLE IN THIS SCENARIO NEAR THE CO-NM BORDER ABOVE
10KFT. SNOW LEVELS WOULD LIKELY RISE TO NEAR 8000 TO 8500 FEET
SUNDAY...AND WHILE THIS MIGHT SUGGEST A LIMITING OF ACCUMULATIONS
AND IMPACTS...THE HYDROLOGY IMPACTS WILL HAVE TO BE STRONGLY
CONSIDERED. IF HEALTHY RAINFALL OCCURS OVER SOME OF THE SNOW
PACK...IN THE 7000 TO 9000 FT RANGE...SOME SUBSTANTIAL MELT AND
RUNOFF COULD OCCUR. WILL MONITOR THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

AS THE CA LOW FINALLY DRAGS NORTHEASTWARD OVER NM MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER PERTURBATION WILL DROP DOWN ON ITS HEELS
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY FEATURE
COULD ALLOW A VERY COLD DOME TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO NM...BUT IT
WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE CABOOSE ON THE RECENT STORM TRAIN.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ACTIVE WINTER
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS OVER THE STATE. TEMPS AREAWIDE
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH
HUMIDITY.

GUSTY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AND FAVOR CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BE CONFINED TO OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE DURING THIS PERIOD
AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS MORE OF
AN  UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AREAS DURING
THIS SAME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
AREAS ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
VERY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.

MORE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL FOLLOW MONDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS. EASTERN AREAS SHOULD GET INTO THE ACTION BY MIDWEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN THE EAST...COOLER IN THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY..THEN COOLING ALL OVER WEDNESDAY.

VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER ON FRIDAY DUE TO LOWER MIXING
HEIGHTS AND IMPACTS FROM THE BACK DOOR COLD PUSH. VENTILATION WILL
IMPROVE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS UNSETTLED AND HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS EXIST.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ524-526-536-537-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>516-527>529-531-532.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ517-519.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510-511-518-521>523.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 262233
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
333 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES ALOFT BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY WELL BELOW AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF THE STATE WHERE READINGS ARE SOME 30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED BY
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AS THE WEEKEND UNFOLDS...ANOTHER POTENT
DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE INTO CALIFORNIA BEFORE SLOWLY SPREADING OVER
NEW MEXICO. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SAN JUAN OR TUSAS MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER WHERE TWO TO FOUR FEET OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
ABOVE TEN THOUSAND FEET. RAIN WILL FALL IN LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING
THIS WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IT HAS BEEN AN EXTREMELY BUSY SHIFT TODAY WITH A FOCUS ON WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS IN NOT ONLY THE NEAR TERM...BUT ALSO FOR THE NEXT
IMPENDING UPPER LOW THAT WILL BEGIN IMPACTING NM THIS WEEKEND.
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL OR RESPITE HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH REGARDS TO SNOW...BUT IT HAS NOT FULLY ENDED IN SOME OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN LOCALES. THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE IS
LOOKING HEALTHY ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...CURRENTLY JUST
WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...PERHAPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN
MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING. THIS WILL SPREAD SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS
ALOFT TO SATURATE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL THEN
SEED LOWER LEVELS AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
EAST/SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE RUNNING UP ON THE RESPECTIVE
SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SANGRES AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS
APPEAR TO BENEFIT THE MOST FROM THE UPSLOPE WHILE SATURATED MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL SEED LOWER LAYERS...INDUCING SNOW GROWTH.
IN ADDITION THE DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE REMAINING NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN ACCELERATING THROUGH
GAPS/CANYONS WITHIN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND AN EARLY
EVENING SURGE SHOULD ALLOW SPEEDS TO JUMP UP SEVERAL MPH AT KABQ
AND KSAF. THIS SHOULD SHADOW MUCH OF THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA
WITH REGARD TO SNOW...SO HIGHLIGHTS WERE HEDGED ON LOWER SIDE WITH
JUST AN ADVISORY.

AS THIS EVENING`S DISTURBANCE TRACKS INTO TX ON FRIDAY...SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOWARD MID DAY. SOME UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...KEEPING THOSE FAVORED AREAS PRECIPITATING AT LIGHT RATES.
SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS WILL NEED TO BE CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED TO
DECIDE ON EARLIER EXPIRATION FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN
COLDER IN MOST ZONES ON FRIDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD POOL CONTINUES
SEEPING WESTWARD. THIS WILL PUT MOST ZONES AT 10 TO 40 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INTERESTINGLY MODELS BREAK OUT NEW
BATCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF ANY BLATANT PERTURBATION
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...IT APPEARS THE TRIGGER IS SOME DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH JET DYNAMICS FAR AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DIVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME TO REFLECT
HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT MAY NOT HAVE
RAISED ENOUGH.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OVER
NORTHWESTERN TO WEST CENTRAL NM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD OVER CALIFORNIA AND DEEPENS
INTO A LOW...SHEDDING ENERGY INTO AZ/NM. THIS WILL BRING A
STIFFENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NM THAT WOULD HAVE GOOD
OROGRAPHICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WHILE ALSO ACTING AS A WARM
ADVECTION CATALYST. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
SAN JUAN/TUSAS AND JEMEZ ZONES STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND RUNNING
INTO SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CHALLENGES WILL ARISE FROM THE WARM
ADVECTION...INDUCING RISING SNOW LEVELS AND COMPLICATING THE SNOW
RATIOS. AT THIS POINT IT STILL APPEARS 2 TO 4 FEET OF NEW SNOW
WOULD BE REASONABLE IN THIS SCENARIO NEAR THE CO-NM BORDER ABOVE
10KFT. SNOW LEVELS WOULD LIKELY RISE TO NEAR 8000 TO 8500 FEET
SUNDAY...AND WHILE THIS MIGHT SUGGEST A LIMITING OF ACCUMULATIONS
AND IMPACTS...THE HYDROLOGY IMPACTS WILL HAVE TO BE STRONGLY
CONSIDERED. IF HEALTHY RAINFALL OCCURS OVER SOME OF THE SNOW
PACK...IN THE 7000 TO 9000 FT RANGE...SOME SUBSTANTIAL MELT AND
RUNOFF COULD OCCUR. WILL MONITOR THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

AS THE CA LOW FINALLY DRAGS NORTHEASTWARD OVER NM MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER PERTURBATION WILL DROP DOWN ON ITS HEELS
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY FEATURE
COULD ALLOW A VERY COLD DOME TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO NM...BUT IT
WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE CABOOSE ON THE RECENT STORM TRAIN.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ACTIVE WINTER
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS OVER THE STATE. TEMPS AREAWIDE
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH
HUMIDITY.

GUSTY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AND FAVOR CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BE CONFINED TO OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE DURING THIS PERIOD
AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS MORE OF
AN  UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AREAS DURING
THIS SAME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
AREAS ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
VERY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.

MORE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL FOLLOW MONDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS. EASTERN AREAS SHOULD GET INTO THE ACTION BY MIDWEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN THE EAST...COOLER IN THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY..THEN COOLING ALL OVER WEDNESDAY.

VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER ON FRIDAY DUE TO LOWER MIXING
HEIGHTS AND IMPACTS FROM THE BACK DOOR COLD PUSH. VENTILATION WILL
IMPROVE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS UNSETTLED AND HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS EXIST.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LVS/TCC WILL BE IMPACTED
MOST WITH SAF/ROW ALSO BEING IMPACTED. GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HR PERIOD. GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AT ABQ. POSSIBLE AWW DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE
EVENING. -SN WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TONIGHT INTO FRI ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
SN IS EXPECTED AT ABQ/SAF/AEG AND EVENTUALLY GUP. THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING SN AND WIND IMPACTS AT ABQ.
POSSIBLE AWW DUE TO SN AT ABQ LATER TONIGHT BUT GUSTY EAST WINDS
AND RUNWAY TEMPS COULD COMPLICATE MATTERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  24  41  31  46 /  30  50  60  60
DULCE...........................  17  32  21  37 /  50  60  80  70
CUBA............................  20  34  24  39 /  70  60  70  60
GALLUP..........................  22  44  32  47 /  30  40  40  50
EL MORRO........................  22  40  27  46 /  50  40  40  50
GRANTS..........................  20  39  26  48 /  60  50  50  40
QUEMADO.........................  25  48  31  49 /  30  20   5  20
GLENWOOD........................  29  60  36  63 /  10   5   0  30
CHAMA...........................  15  30  19  36 /  60  70  90  80
LOS ALAMOS......................  18  28  23  35 /  90  50  40  60
PECOS...........................  11  23  16  35 / 100  60  70  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  12  27  18  33 /  80  50  60  60
RED RIVER.......................  12  21  15  29 /  80  60  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................   7  24  14  33 /  80  60  70  60
TAOS............................  16  29  21  35 /  70  50  50  60
MORA............................   9  24  15  35 /  90  60  60  40
ESPANOLA........................  22  33  25  41 /  50  50  30  40
SANTA FE........................  16  27  21  37 /  80  50  50  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  17  29  19  39 /  60  50  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  24  35  25  46 /  70  60  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  27  38  27  50 /  40  50  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  24  39  27  52 /  60  50  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  24  39  27  51 /  80  50  30  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  27  41  28  53 /  50  40  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  26  37  27  46 /  80  50  30  30
SOCORRO.........................  30  49  32  59 /  50  20   5  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  16  28  20  38 / 100  70  60  40
TIJERAS.........................  21  32  22  44 / 100  60  50  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  15  27  16  42 / 100  60  50  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  10  22  15  38 / 100  70  50  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  20  34  23  45 /  80  40  30  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  24  42  28  53 /  30  40  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  18  35  25  48 /  60  50  20  20
CAPULIN.........................   7  18   9  29 /  70  60  40  30
RATON...........................   9  21  10  32 /  70  60  50  30
SPRINGER........................   9  21  11  33 /  80  60  50  30
LAS VEGAS.......................   6  19  12  33 /  90  60  60  40
CLAYTON.........................   6  16  11  30 /  80  60  40  20
ROY.............................   8  18  11  30 /  80  60  50  30
CONCHAS.........................  15  23  17  37 /  80  70  40  20
SANTA ROSA......................  15  24  18  37 /  80  70  40  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  14  22  16  39 /  80  70  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  12  22  17  41 /  80  70  30  20
PORTALES........................  14  23  18  43 /  70  70  30  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  17  25  20  43 /  80  70  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  23  30  24  52 /  40  40  20  10
PICACHO.........................  18  28  22  51 /  50  40  20  10
ELK.............................  17  30  23  51 /  40  40  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ524-526-536-537-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>516-527>529-531-532.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ517-519.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-518-521>523.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511.

&&

$$

52





000
FXUS65 KABQ 262233
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
333 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES ALOFT BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY WELL BELOW AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF THE STATE WHERE READINGS ARE SOME 30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED BY
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AS THE WEEKEND UNFOLDS...ANOTHER POTENT
DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE INTO CALIFORNIA BEFORE SLOWLY SPREADING OVER
NEW MEXICO. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SAN JUAN OR TUSAS MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER WHERE TWO TO FOUR FEET OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
ABOVE TEN THOUSAND FEET. RAIN WILL FALL IN LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING
THIS WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IT HAS BEEN AN EXTREMELY BUSY SHIFT TODAY WITH A FOCUS ON WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS IN NOT ONLY THE NEAR TERM...BUT ALSO FOR THE NEXT
IMPENDING UPPER LOW THAT WILL BEGIN IMPACTING NM THIS WEEKEND.
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL OR RESPITE HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH REGARDS TO SNOW...BUT IT HAS NOT FULLY ENDED IN SOME OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN LOCALES. THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE IS
LOOKING HEALTHY ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...CURRENTLY JUST
WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...PERHAPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN
MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING. THIS WILL SPREAD SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS
ALOFT TO SATURATE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL THEN
SEED LOWER LEVELS AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
EAST/SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE RUNNING UP ON THE RESPECTIVE
SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SANGRES AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS
APPEAR TO BENEFIT THE MOST FROM THE UPSLOPE WHILE SATURATED MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL SEED LOWER LAYERS...INDUCING SNOW GROWTH.
IN ADDITION THE DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE REMAINING NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN ACCELERATING THROUGH
GAPS/CANYONS WITHIN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND AN EARLY
EVENING SURGE SHOULD ALLOW SPEEDS TO JUMP UP SEVERAL MPH AT KABQ
AND KSAF. THIS SHOULD SHADOW MUCH OF THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA
WITH REGARD TO SNOW...SO HIGHLIGHTS WERE HEDGED ON LOWER SIDE WITH
JUST AN ADVISORY.

AS THIS EVENING`S DISTURBANCE TRACKS INTO TX ON FRIDAY...SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOWARD MID DAY. SOME UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...KEEPING THOSE FAVORED AREAS PRECIPITATING AT LIGHT RATES.
SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS WILL NEED TO BE CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED TO
DECIDE ON EARLIER EXPIRATION FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN
COLDER IN MOST ZONES ON FRIDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD POOL CONTINUES
SEEPING WESTWARD. THIS WILL PUT MOST ZONES AT 10 TO 40 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INTERESTINGLY MODELS BREAK OUT NEW
BATCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF ANY BLATANT PERTURBATION
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...IT APPEARS THE TRIGGER IS SOME DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH JET DYNAMICS FAR AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DIVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME TO REFLECT
HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT MAY NOT HAVE
RAISED ENOUGH.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OVER
NORTHWESTERN TO WEST CENTRAL NM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD OVER CALIFORNIA AND DEEPENS
INTO A LOW...SHEDDING ENERGY INTO AZ/NM. THIS WILL BRING A
STIFFENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NM THAT WOULD HAVE GOOD
OROGRAPHICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WHILE ALSO ACTING AS A WARM
ADVECTION CATALYST. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
SAN JUAN/TUSAS AND JEMEZ ZONES STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND RUNNING
INTO SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CHALLENGES WILL ARISE FROM THE WARM
ADVECTION...INDUCING RISING SNOW LEVELS AND COMPLICATING THE SNOW
RATIOS. AT THIS POINT IT STILL APPEARS 2 TO 4 FEET OF NEW SNOW
WOULD BE REASONABLE IN THIS SCENARIO NEAR THE CO-NM BORDER ABOVE
10KFT. SNOW LEVELS WOULD LIKELY RISE TO NEAR 8000 TO 8500 FEET
SUNDAY...AND WHILE THIS MIGHT SUGGEST A LIMITING OF ACCUMULATIONS
AND IMPACTS...THE HYDROLOGY IMPACTS WILL HAVE TO BE STRONGLY
CONSIDERED. IF HEALTHY RAINFALL OCCURS OVER SOME OF THE SNOW
PACK...IN THE 7000 TO 9000 FT RANGE...SOME SUBSTANTIAL MELT AND
RUNOFF COULD OCCUR. WILL MONITOR THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

AS THE CA LOW FINALLY DRAGS NORTHEASTWARD OVER NM MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER PERTURBATION WILL DROP DOWN ON ITS HEELS
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY FEATURE
COULD ALLOW A VERY COLD DOME TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO NM...BUT IT
WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE CABOOSE ON THE RECENT STORM TRAIN.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ACTIVE WINTER
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS OVER THE STATE. TEMPS AREAWIDE
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH
HUMIDITY.

GUSTY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AND FAVOR CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BE CONFINED TO OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE DURING THIS PERIOD
AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS MORE OF
AN  UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AREAS DURING
THIS SAME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
AREAS ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
VERY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.

MORE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL FOLLOW MONDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS. EASTERN AREAS SHOULD GET INTO THE ACTION BY MIDWEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN THE EAST...COOLER IN THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY..THEN COOLING ALL OVER WEDNESDAY.

VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER ON FRIDAY DUE TO LOWER MIXING
HEIGHTS AND IMPACTS FROM THE BACK DOOR COLD PUSH. VENTILATION WILL
IMPROVE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS UNSETTLED AND HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS EXIST.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LVS/TCC WILL BE IMPACTED
MOST WITH SAF/ROW ALSO BEING IMPACTED. GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HR PERIOD. GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AT ABQ. POSSIBLE AWW DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE
EVENING. -SN WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TONIGHT INTO FRI ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
SN IS EXPECTED AT ABQ/SAF/AEG AND EVENTUALLY GUP. THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING SN AND WIND IMPACTS AT ABQ.
POSSIBLE AWW DUE TO SN AT ABQ LATER TONIGHT BUT GUSTY EAST WINDS
AND RUNWAY TEMPS COULD COMPLICATE MATTERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  24  41  31  46 /  30  50  60  60
DULCE...........................  17  32  21  37 /  50  60  80  70
CUBA............................  20  34  24  39 /  70  60  70  60
GALLUP..........................  22  44  32  47 /  30  40  40  50
EL MORRO........................  22  40  27  46 /  50  40  40  50
GRANTS..........................  20  39  26  48 /  60  50  50  40
QUEMADO.........................  25  48  31  49 /  30  20   5  20
GLENWOOD........................  29  60  36  63 /  10   5   0  30
CHAMA...........................  15  30  19  36 /  60  70  90  80
LOS ALAMOS......................  18  28  23  35 /  90  50  40  60
PECOS...........................  11  23  16  35 / 100  60  70  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  12  27  18  33 /  80  50  60  60
RED RIVER.......................  12  21  15  29 /  80  60  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................   7  24  14  33 /  80  60  70  60
TAOS............................  16  29  21  35 /  70  50  50  60
MORA............................   9  24  15  35 /  90  60  60  40
ESPANOLA........................  22  33  25  41 /  50  50  30  40
SANTA FE........................  16  27  21  37 /  80  50  50  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  17  29  19  39 /  60  50  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  24  35  25  46 /  70  60  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  27  38  27  50 /  40  50  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  24  39  27  52 /  60  50  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  24  39  27  51 /  80  50  30  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  27  41  28  53 /  50  40  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  26  37  27  46 /  80  50  30  30
SOCORRO.........................  30  49  32  59 /  50  20   5  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  16  28  20  38 / 100  70  60  40
TIJERAS.........................  21  32  22  44 / 100  60  50  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  15  27  16  42 / 100  60  50  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  10  22  15  38 / 100  70  50  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  20  34  23  45 /  80  40  30  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  24  42  28  53 /  30  40  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  18  35  25  48 /  60  50  20  20
CAPULIN.........................   7  18   9  29 /  70  60  40  30
RATON...........................   9  21  10  32 /  70  60  50  30
SPRINGER........................   9  21  11  33 /  80  60  50  30
LAS VEGAS.......................   6  19  12  33 /  90  60  60  40
CLAYTON.........................   6  16  11  30 /  80  60  40  20
ROY.............................   8  18  11  30 /  80  60  50  30
CONCHAS.........................  15  23  17  37 /  80  70  40  20
SANTA ROSA......................  15  24  18  37 /  80  70  40  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  14  22  16  39 /  80  70  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  12  22  17  41 /  80  70  30  20
PORTALES........................  14  23  18  43 /  70  70  30  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  17  25  20  43 /  80  70  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  23  30  24  52 /  40  40  20  10
PICACHO.........................  18  28  22  51 /  50  40  20  10
ELK.............................  17  30  23  51 /  40  40  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ524-526-536-537-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>516-527>529-531-532.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ517-519.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-518-521>523.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511.

&&

$$

52





000
FXUS65 KABQ 262233
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
333 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES ALOFT BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY WELL BELOW AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF THE STATE WHERE READINGS ARE SOME 30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED BY
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AS THE WEEKEND UNFOLDS...ANOTHER POTENT
DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE INTO CALIFORNIA BEFORE SLOWLY SPREADING OVER
NEW MEXICO. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SAN JUAN OR TUSAS MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER WHERE TWO TO FOUR FEET OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
ABOVE TEN THOUSAND FEET. RAIN WILL FALL IN LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING
THIS WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IT HAS BEEN AN EXTREMELY BUSY SHIFT TODAY WITH A FOCUS ON WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS IN NOT ONLY THE NEAR TERM...BUT ALSO FOR THE NEXT
IMPENDING UPPER LOW THAT WILL BEGIN IMPACTING NM THIS WEEKEND.
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL OR RESPITE HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH REGARDS TO SNOW...BUT IT HAS NOT FULLY ENDED IN SOME OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN LOCALES. THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE IS
LOOKING HEALTHY ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...CURRENTLY JUST
WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...PERHAPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN
MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING. THIS WILL SPREAD SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS
ALOFT TO SATURATE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL THEN
SEED LOWER LEVELS AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
EAST/SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE RUNNING UP ON THE RESPECTIVE
SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SANGRES AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS
APPEAR TO BENEFIT THE MOST FROM THE UPSLOPE WHILE SATURATED MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL SEED LOWER LAYERS...INDUCING SNOW GROWTH.
IN ADDITION THE DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE REMAINING NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN ACCELERATING THROUGH
GAPS/CANYONS WITHIN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND AN EARLY
EVENING SURGE SHOULD ALLOW SPEEDS TO JUMP UP SEVERAL MPH AT KABQ
AND KSAF. THIS SHOULD SHADOW MUCH OF THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA
WITH REGARD TO SNOW...SO HIGHLIGHTS WERE HEDGED ON LOWER SIDE WITH
JUST AN ADVISORY.

AS THIS EVENING`S DISTURBANCE TRACKS INTO TX ON FRIDAY...SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOWARD MID DAY. SOME UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...KEEPING THOSE FAVORED AREAS PRECIPITATING AT LIGHT RATES.
SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS WILL NEED TO BE CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED TO
DECIDE ON EARLIER EXPIRATION FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN
COLDER IN MOST ZONES ON FRIDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD POOL CONTINUES
SEEPING WESTWARD. THIS WILL PUT MOST ZONES AT 10 TO 40 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INTERESTINGLY MODELS BREAK OUT NEW
BATCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF ANY BLATANT PERTURBATION
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...IT APPEARS THE TRIGGER IS SOME DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH JET DYNAMICS FAR AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DIVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME TO REFLECT
HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT MAY NOT HAVE
RAISED ENOUGH.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OVER
NORTHWESTERN TO WEST CENTRAL NM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD OVER CALIFORNIA AND DEEPENS
INTO A LOW...SHEDDING ENERGY INTO AZ/NM. THIS WILL BRING A
STIFFENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NM THAT WOULD HAVE GOOD
OROGRAPHICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WHILE ALSO ACTING AS A WARM
ADVECTION CATALYST. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
SAN JUAN/TUSAS AND JEMEZ ZONES STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND RUNNING
INTO SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CHALLENGES WILL ARISE FROM THE WARM
ADVECTION...INDUCING RISING SNOW LEVELS AND COMPLICATING THE SNOW
RATIOS. AT THIS POINT IT STILL APPEARS 2 TO 4 FEET OF NEW SNOW
WOULD BE REASONABLE IN THIS SCENARIO NEAR THE CO-NM BORDER ABOVE
10KFT. SNOW LEVELS WOULD LIKELY RISE TO NEAR 8000 TO 8500 FEET
SUNDAY...AND WHILE THIS MIGHT SUGGEST A LIMITING OF ACCUMULATIONS
AND IMPACTS...THE HYDROLOGY IMPACTS WILL HAVE TO BE STRONGLY
CONSIDERED. IF HEALTHY RAINFALL OCCURS OVER SOME OF THE SNOW
PACK...IN THE 7000 TO 9000 FT RANGE...SOME SUBSTANTIAL MELT AND
RUNOFF COULD OCCUR. WILL MONITOR THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

AS THE CA LOW FINALLY DRAGS NORTHEASTWARD OVER NM MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER PERTURBATION WILL DROP DOWN ON ITS HEELS
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY FEATURE
COULD ALLOW A VERY COLD DOME TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO NM...BUT IT
WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE CABOOSE ON THE RECENT STORM TRAIN.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ACTIVE WINTER
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS OVER THE STATE. TEMPS AREAWIDE
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH
HUMIDITY.

GUSTY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AND FAVOR CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BE CONFINED TO OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE DURING THIS PERIOD
AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS MORE OF
AN  UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AREAS DURING
THIS SAME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
AREAS ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
VERY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.

MORE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL FOLLOW MONDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS. EASTERN AREAS SHOULD GET INTO THE ACTION BY MIDWEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN THE EAST...COOLER IN THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY..THEN COOLING ALL OVER WEDNESDAY.

VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER ON FRIDAY DUE TO LOWER MIXING
HEIGHTS AND IMPACTS FROM THE BACK DOOR COLD PUSH. VENTILATION WILL
IMPROVE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS UNSETTLED AND HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS EXIST.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LVS/TCC WILL BE IMPACTED
MOST WITH SAF/ROW ALSO BEING IMPACTED. GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HR PERIOD. GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AT ABQ. POSSIBLE AWW DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE
EVENING. -SN WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TONIGHT INTO FRI ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
SN IS EXPECTED AT ABQ/SAF/AEG AND EVENTUALLY GUP. THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING SN AND WIND IMPACTS AT ABQ.
POSSIBLE AWW DUE TO SN AT ABQ LATER TONIGHT BUT GUSTY EAST WINDS
AND RUNWAY TEMPS COULD COMPLICATE MATTERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  24  41  31  46 /  30  50  60  60
DULCE...........................  17  32  21  37 /  50  60  80  70
CUBA............................  20  34  24  39 /  70  60  70  60
GALLUP..........................  22  44  32  47 /  30  40  40  50
EL MORRO........................  22  40  27  46 /  50  40  40  50
GRANTS..........................  20  39  26  48 /  60  50  50  40
QUEMADO.........................  25  48  31  49 /  30  20   5  20
GLENWOOD........................  29  60  36  63 /  10   5   0  30
CHAMA...........................  15  30  19  36 /  60  70  90  80
LOS ALAMOS......................  18  28  23  35 /  90  50  40  60
PECOS...........................  11  23  16  35 / 100  60  70  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  12  27  18  33 /  80  50  60  60
RED RIVER.......................  12  21  15  29 /  80  60  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................   7  24  14  33 /  80  60  70  60
TAOS............................  16  29  21  35 /  70  50  50  60
MORA............................   9  24  15  35 /  90  60  60  40
ESPANOLA........................  22  33  25  41 /  50  50  30  40
SANTA FE........................  16  27  21  37 /  80  50  50  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  17  29  19  39 /  60  50  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  24  35  25  46 /  70  60  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  27  38  27  50 /  40  50  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  24  39  27  52 /  60  50  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  24  39  27  51 /  80  50  30  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  27  41  28  53 /  50  40  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  26  37  27  46 /  80  50  30  30
SOCORRO.........................  30  49  32  59 /  50  20   5  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  16  28  20  38 / 100  70  60  40
TIJERAS.........................  21  32  22  44 / 100  60  50  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  15  27  16  42 / 100  60  50  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  10  22  15  38 / 100  70  50  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  20  34  23  45 /  80  40  30  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  24  42  28  53 /  30  40  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  18  35  25  48 /  60  50  20  20
CAPULIN.........................   7  18   9  29 /  70  60  40  30
RATON...........................   9  21  10  32 /  70  60  50  30
SPRINGER........................   9  21  11  33 /  80  60  50  30
LAS VEGAS.......................   6  19  12  33 /  90  60  60  40
CLAYTON.........................   6  16  11  30 /  80  60  40  20
ROY.............................   8  18  11  30 /  80  60  50  30
CONCHAS.........................  15  23  17  37 /  80  70  40  20
SANTA ROSA......................  15  24  18  37 /  80  70  40  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  14  22  16  39 /  80  70  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  12  22  17  41 /  80  70  30  20
PORTALES........................  14  23  18  43 /  70  70  30  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  17  25  20  43 /  80  70  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  23  30  24  52 /  40  40  20  10
PICACHO.........................  18  28  22  51 /  50  40  20  10
ELK.............................  17  30  23  51 /  40  40  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ524-526-536-537-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>516-527>529-531-532.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ517-519.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-518-521>523.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511.

&&

$$

52





000
FXUS65 KABQ 262233
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
333 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES ALOFT BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY WELL BELOW AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF THE STATE WHERE READINGS ARE SOME 30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED BY
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AS THE WEEKEND UNFOLDS...ANOTHER POTENT
DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE INTO CALIFORNIA BEFORE SLOWLY SPREADING OVER
NEW MEXICO. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SAN JUAN OR TUSAS MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER WHERE TWO TO FOUR FEET OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
ABOVE TEN THOUSAND FEET. RAIN WILL FALL IN LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING
THIS WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IT HAS BEEN AN EXTREMELY BUSY SHIFT TODAY WITH A FOCUS ON WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS IN NOT ONLY THE NEAR TERM...BUT ALSO FOR THE NEXT
IMPENDING UPPER LOW THAT WILL BEGIN IMPACTING NM THIS WEEKEND.
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL OR RESPITE HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH REGARDS TO SNOW...BUT IT HAS NOT FULLY ENDED IN SOME OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN LOCALES. THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE IS
LOOKING HEALTHY ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...CURRENTLY JUST
WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...PERHAPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN
MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING. THIS WILL SPREAD SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS
ALOFT TO SATURATE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL THEN
SEED LOWER LEVELS AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
EAST/SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE RUNNING UP ON THE RESPECTIVE
SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SANGRES AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS
APPEAR TO BENEFIT THE MOST FROM THE UPSLOPE WHILE SATURATED MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL SEED LOWER LAYERS...INDUCING SNOW GROWTH.
IN ADDITION THE DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE REMAINING NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN ACCELERATING THROUGH
GAPS/CANYONS WITHIN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND AN EARLY
EVENING SURGE SHOULD ALLOW SPEEDS TO JUMP UP SEVERAL MPH AT KABQ
AND KSAF. THIS SHOULD SHADOW MUCH OF THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA
WITH REGARD TO SNOW...SO HIGHLIGHTS WERE HEDGED ON LOWER SIDE WITH
JUST AN ADVISORY.

AS THIS EVENING`S DISTURBANCE TRACKS INTO TX ON FRIDAY...SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOWARD MID DAY. SOME UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...KEEPING THOSE FAVORED AREAS PRECIPITATING AT LIGHT RATES.
SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS WILL NEED TO BE CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED TO
DECIDE ON EARLIER EXPIRATION FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN
COLDER IN MOST ZONES ON FRIDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD POOL CONTINUES
SEEPING WESTWARD. THIS WILL PUT MOST ZONES AT 10 TO 40 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INTERESTINGLY MODELS BREAK OUT NEW
BATCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF ANY BLATANT PERTURBATION
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...IT APPEARS THE TRIGGER IS SOME DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH JET DYNAMICS FAR AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DIVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME TO REFLECT
HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT MAY NOT HAVE
RAISED ENOUGH.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OVER
NORTHWESTERN TO WEST CENTRAL NM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD OVER CALIFORNIA AND DEEPENS
INTO A LOW...SHEDDING ENERGY INTO AZ/NM. THIS WILL BRING A
STIFFENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NM THAT WOULD HAVE GOOD
OROGRAPHICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WHILE ALSO ACTING AS A WARM
ADVECTION CATALYST. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
SAN JUAN/TUSAS AND JEMEZ ZONES STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND RUNNING
INTO SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CHALLENGES WILL ARISE FROM THE WARM
ADVECTION...INDUCING RISING SNOW LEVELS AND COMPLICATING THE SNOW
RATIOS. AT THIS POINT IT STILL APPEARS 2 TO 4 FEET OF NEW SNOW
WOULD BE REASONABLE IN THIS SCENARIO NEAR THE CO-NM BORDER ABOVE
10KFT. SNOW LEVELS WOULD LIKELY RISE TO NEAR 8000 TO 8500 FEET
SUNDAY...AND WHILE THIS MIGHT SUGGEST A LIMITING OF ACCUMULATIONS
AND IMPACTS...THE HYDROLOGY IMPACTS WILL HAVE TO BE STRONGLY
CONSIDERED. IF HEALTHY RAINFALL OCCURS OVER SOME OF THE SNOW
PACK...IN THE 7000 TO 9000 FT RANGE...SOME SUBSTANTIAL MELT AND
RUNOFF COULD OCCUR. WILL MONITOR THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

AS THE CA LOW FINALLY DRAGS NORTHEASTWARD OVER NM MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER PERTURBATION WILL DROP DOWN ON ITS HEELS
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY FEATURE
COULD ALLOW A VERY COLD DOME TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO NM...BUT IT
WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE CABOOSE ON THE RECENT STORM TRAIN.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ACTIVE WINTER
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS OVER THE STATE. TEMPS AREAWIDE
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH
HUMIDITY.

GUSTY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AND FAVOR CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BE CONFINED TO OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE DURING THIS PERIOD
AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS MORE OF
AN  UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AREAS DURING
THIS SAME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
AREAS ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
VERY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.

MORE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL FOLLOW MONDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS. EASTERN AREAS SHOULD GET INTO THE ACTION BY MIDWEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN THE EAST...COOLER IN THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY..THEN COOLING ALL OVER WEDNESDAY.

VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER ON FRIDAY DUE TO LOWER MIXING
HEIGHTS AND IMPACTS FROM THE BACK DOOR COLD PUSH. VENTILATION WILL
IMPROVE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS UNSETTLED AND HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS EXIST.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LVS/TCC WILL BE IMPACTED
MOST WITH SAF/ROW ALSO BEING IMPACTED. GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HR PERIOD. GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AT ABQ. POSSIBLE AWW DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE
EVENING. -SN WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TONIGHT INTO FRI ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
SN IS EXPECTED AT ABQ/SAF/AEG AND EVENTUALLY GUP. THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING SN AND WIND IMPACTS AT ABQ.
POSSIBLE AWW DUE TO SN AT ABQ LATER TONIGHT BUT GUSTY EAST WINDS
AND RUNWAY TEMPS COULD COMPLICATE MATTERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  24  41  31  46 /  30  50  60  60
DULCE...........................  17  32  21  37 /  50  60  80  70
CUBA............................  20  34  24  39 /  70  60  70  60
GALLUP..........................  22  44  32  47 /  30  40  40  50
EL MORRO........................  22  40  27  46 /  50  40  40  50
GRANTS..........................  20  39  26  48 /  60  50  50  40
QUEMADO.........................  25  48  31  49 /  30  20   5  20
GLENWOOD........................  29  60  36  63 /  10   5   0  30
CHAMA...........................  15  30  19  36 /  60  70  90  80
LOS ALAMOS......................  18  28  23  35 /  90  50  40  60
PECOS...........................  11  23  16  35 / 100  60  70  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  12  27  18  33 /  80  50  60  60
RED RIVER.......................  12  21  15  29 /  80  60  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................   7  24  14  33 /  80  60  70  60
TAOS............................  16  29  21  35 /  70  50  50  60
MORA............................   9  24  15  35 /  90  60  60  40
ESPANOLA........................  22  33  25  41 /  50  50  30  40
SANTA FE........................  16  27  21  37 /  80  50  50  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  17  29  19  39 /  60  50  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  24  35  25  46 /  70  60  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  27  38  27  50 /  40  50  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  24  39  27  52 /  60  50  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  24  39  27  51 /  80  50  30  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  27  41  28  53 /  50  40  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  26  37  27  46 /  80  50  30  30
SOCORRO.........................  30  49  32  59 /  50  20   5  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  16  28  20  38 / 100  70  60  40
TIJERAS.........................  21  32  22  44 / 100  60  50  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  15  27  16  42 / 100  60  50  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  10  22  15  38 / 100  70  50  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  20  34  23  45 /  80  40  30  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  24  42  28  53 /  30  40  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  18  35  25  48 /  60  50  20  20
CAPULIN.........................   7  18   9  29 /  70  60  40  30
RATON...........................   9  21  10  32 /  70  60  50  30
SPRINGER........................   9  21  11  33 /  80  60  50  30
LAS VEGAS.......................   6  19  12  33 /  90  60  60  40
CLAYTON.........................   6  16  11  30 /  80  60  40  20
ROY.............................   8  18  11  30 /  80  60  50  30
CONCHAS.........................  15  23  17  37 /  80  70  40  20
SANTA ROSA......................  15  24  18  37 /  80  70  40  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  14  22  16  39 /  80  70  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  12  22  17  41 /  80  70  30  20
PORTALES........................  14  23  18  43 /  70  70  30  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  17  25  20  43 /  80  70  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  23  30  24  52 /  40  40  20  10
PICACHO.........................  18  28  22  51 /  50  40  20  10
ELK.............................  17  30  23  51 /  40  40  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ524-526-536-537-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>516-527>529-531-532.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ517-519.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-518-521>523.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511.

&&

$$

52





000
FXUS65 KABQ 262233
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
333 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS NUMEROUS
DISTURBANCES ALOFT BRING PRECIPITATION TO THE STATE. TEMPERATURES
ARE CURRENTLY WELL BELOW AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY IN THE EASTERN
PLAINS OF THE STATE WHERE READINGS ARE SOME 30 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL FOR LATE FEBRUARY. WITH COLDER AIR IN PLACE...SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO BREAK OUT OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL TO EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES.
SEVERAL INCHES OF ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED BY
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AND HIGHLANDS OF NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. AS THE WEEKEND UNFOLDS...ANOTHER POTENT
DISTURBANCE WILL DIVE INTO CALIFORNIA BEFORE SLOWLY SPREADING OVER
NEW MEXICO. A PROLONGED PERIOD OF HIGH ELEVATION SNOW IS EXPECTED
SATURDAY...SUNDAY...AND INTO MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST SNOW
TOTALS WILL BE FOUND IN THE SAN JUAN OR TUSAS MOUNTAINS NEAR THE
COLORADO BORDER WHERE TWO TO FOUR FEET OF SNOW COULD ACCUMULATE
ABOVE TEN THOUSAND FEET. RAIN WILL FALL IN LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING
THIS WEEKEND TO EARLY NEXT WEEK PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
IT HAS BEEN AN EXTREMELY BUSY SHIFT TODAY WITH A FOCUS ON WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS IN NOT ONLY THE NEAR TERM...BUT ALSO FOR THE NEXT
IMPENDING UPPER LOW THAT WILL BEGIN IMPACTING NM THIS WEEKEND.
SOMEWHAT OF A LULL OR RESPITE HAS BEEN OBSERVED THIS AFTERNOON
WITH REGARDS TO SNOW...BUT IT HAS NOT FULLY ENDED IN SOME OF THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAIN LOCALES. THE NEXT UPSTREAM DISTURBANCE IS
LOOKING HEALTHY ON WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY...CURRENTLY JUST
WEST OF THE FOUR CORNERS AREA...PERHAPS A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN
MODELS HAVE BEEN INDICATING. THIS WILL SPREAD SUFFICIENT DYNAMICS
ALOFT TO SATURATE THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WHICH WILL THEN
SEED LOWER LEVELS AND PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOW...ESPECIALLY WHERE
EAST/SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE FLOW WILL BE RUNNING UP ON THE RESPECTIVE
SLOPES OF HIGHER TERRAIN. SANGRES AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS
APPEAR TO BENEFIT THE MOST FROM THE UPSLOPE WHILE SATURATED MID
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS WILL SEED LOWER LAYERS...INDUCING SNOW GROWTH.
IN ADDITION THE DYNAMICS SHOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE REMAINING NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. THE EASTERLY FLOW HAS BEEN ACCELERATING THROUGH
GAPS/CANYONS WITHIN THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...AND AN EARLY
EVENING SURGE SHOULD ALLOW SPEEDS TO JUMP UP SEVERAL MPH AT KABQ
AND KSAF. THIS SHOULD SHADOW MUCH OF THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO AREA
WITH REGARD TO SNOW...SO HIGHLIGHTS WERE HEDGED ON LOWER SIDE WITH
JUST AN ADVISORY.

AS THIS EVENING`S DISTURBANCE TRACKS INTO TX ON FRIDAY...SNOW WILL
BEGIN TO TAPER OFF TOWARD MID DAY. SOME UPSLOPE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...KEEPING THOSE FAVORED AREAS PRECIPITATING AT LIGHT RATES.
SOME OF THE HIGHLIGHTS WILL NEED TO BE CONTINUOUSLY MONITORED TO
DECIDE ON EARLIER EXPIRATION FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE EVEN
COLDER IN MOST ZONES ON FRIDAY AS THE SYNOPTIC COLD POOL CONTINUES
SEEPING WESTWARD. THIS WILL PUT MOST ZONES AT 10 TO 40 DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL FRIDAY AFTERNOON. INTERESTINGLY MODELS BREAK OUT NEW
BATCHES OF PRECIPITATION IN THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON. WITHOUT THE PRESENCE OF ANY BLATANT PERTURBATION
IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM...IT APPEARS THE TRIGGER IS SOME DIVERGENCE
ALOFT...ASSOCIATED WITH JET DYNAMICS FAR AHEAD OF THE NEXT TROUGH
DIVING INTO THE GREAT BASIN. HAVE INCREASED POPS SOME TO REFLECT
HIGHER PROBABILITIES IN THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES...BUT MAY NOT HAVE
RAISED ENOUGH.

CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE ELEVATED PROBABILITIES OVER
NORTHWESTERN TO WEST CENTRAL NM FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS THE
AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD OVER CALIFORNIA AND DEEPENS
INTO A LOW...SHEDDING ENERGY INTO AZ/NM. THIS WILL BRING A
STIFFENING SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER NM THAT WOULD HAVE GOOD
OROGRAPHICS ASSOCIATED WITH IT WHILE ALSO ACTING AS A WARM
ADVECTION CATALYST. HAVE OPTED TO ISSUE WINTER STORM WATCH FOR THE
SAN JUAN/TUSAS AND JEMEZ ZONES STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT AND RUNNING
INTO SUNDAY. QPF AMOUNTS ARE VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH THIS FEATURE
FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. CHALLENGES WILL ARISE FROM THE WARM
ADVECTION...INDUCING RISING SNOW LEVELS AND COMPLICATING THE SNOW
RATIOS. AT THIS POINT IT STILL APPEARS 2 TO 4 FEET OF NEW SNOW
WOULD BE REASONABLE IN THIS SCENARIO NEAR THE CO-NM BORDER ABOVE
10KFT. SNOW LEVELS WOULD LIKELY RISE TO NEAR 8000 TO 8500 FEET
SUNDAY...AND WHILE THIS MIGHT SUGGEST A LIMITING OF ACCUMULATIONS
AND IMPACTS...THE HYDROLOGY IMPACTS WILL HAVE TO BE STRONGLY
CONSIDERED. IF HEALTHY RAINFALL OCCURS OVER SOME OF THE SNOW
PACK...IN THE 7000 TO 9000 FT RANGE...SOME SUBSTANTIAL MELT AND
RUNOFF COULD OCCUR. WILL MONITOR THIS SCENARIO CLOSELY THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS.

AS THE CA LOW FINALLY DRAGS NORTHEASTWARD OVER NM MONDAY AND
MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER PERTURBATION WILL DROP DOWN ON ITS HEELS
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON WEDNESDAY. THE WEDNESDAY FEATURE
COULD ALLOW A VERY COLD DOME TO SPILL SOUTHWARD INTO NM...BUT IT
WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE CABOOSE ON THE RECENT STORM TRAIN.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE ACTIVE WINTER
WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDLE OF NEXT AS A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS OVER THE STATE. TEMPS AREAWIDE
WILL REMAIN BELOW NORMAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH UNUSUALLY HIGH
HUMIDITY.

GUSTY GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR THE
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. OTHERWISE...ANOTHER ROUND OF WETTING SNOW WILL
DEVELOP AND FAVOR CENTRAL/EASTERN AREAS TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING. SNOW SHOWERS SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL THEN BE CONFINED TO OVER NORTHERN AND
WESTERN AREAS THIS WEEKEND. SNOW LEVELS WILL RISE DURING THIS PERIOD
AS THE ATMOSPHERE WARMS. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS MORE OF
AN  UPPER LEVEL DRY SLOT IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST AREAS DURING
THIS SAME PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME BUT WILL REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL. BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL
AREAS ESPECIALLY FAVORING THE HIGH TERRAIN. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
VERY POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN AS THE FLOW ALOFT INCREASES.

MORE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES FROM THE WEST WILL FOLLOW MONDAY THRU
WEDNESDAY BRINGING MORE RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS. EASTERN AREAS SHOULD GET INTO THE ACTION BY MIDWEEK. TEMPS
WILL BE A BIT WARMER IN THE EAST...COOLER IN THE WEST ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY..THEN COOLING ALL OVER WEDNESDAY.

VENTILATION IS EXPECTED TO LOWER ON FRIDAY DUE TO LOWER MIXING
HEIGHTS AND IMPACTS FROM THE BACK DOOR COLD PUSH. VENTILATION WILL
IMPROVE AS THE WEEKEND PROGRESSES...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY. GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VENT RATES ARE EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS UNSETTLED AND HIGHER TRANSPORT WINDS EXIST.

50

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LVS/TCC WILL BE IMPACTED
MOST WITH SAF/ROW ALSO BEING IMPACTED. GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HR PERIOD. GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AT ABQ. POSSIBLE AWW DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE
EVENING. -SN WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TONIGHT INTO FRI ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
SN IS EXPECTED AT ABQ/SAF/AEG AND EVENTUALLY GUP. THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING SN AND WIND IMPACTS AT ABQ.
POSSIBLE AWW DUE TO SN AT ABQ LATER TONIGHT BUT GUSTY EAST WINDS
AND RUNWAY TEMPS COULD COMPLICATE MATTERS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  24  41  31  46 /  30  50  60  60
DULCE...........................  17  32  21  37 /  50  60  80  70
CUBA............................  20  34  24  39 /  70  60  70  60
GALLUP..........................  22  44  32  47 /  30  40  40  50
EL MORRO........................  22  40  27  46 /  50  40  40  50
GRANTS..........................  20  39  26  48 /  60  50  50  40
QUEMADO.........................  25  48  31  49 /  30  20   5  20
GLENWOOD........................  29  60  36  63 /  10   5   0  30
CHAMA...........................  15  30  19  36 /  60  70  90  80
LOS ALAMOS......................  18  28  23  35 /  90  50  40  60
PECOS...........................  11  23  16  35 / 100  60  70  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  12  27  18  33 /  80  50  60  60
RED RIVER.......................  12  21  15  29 /  80  60  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................   7  24  14  33 /  80  60  70  60
TAOS............................  16  29  21  35 /  70  50  50  60
MORA............................   9  24  15  35 /  90  60  60  40
ESPANOLA........................  22  33  25  41 /  50  50  30  40
SANTA FE........................  16  27  21  37 /  80  50  50  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  17  29  19  39 /  60  50  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  24  35  25  46 /  70  60  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  27  38  27  50 /  40  50  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  24  39  27  52 /  60  50  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  24  39  27  51 /  80  50  30  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  27  41  28  53 /  50  40  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  26  37  27  46 /  80  50  30  30
SOCORRO.........................  30  49  32  59 /  50  20   5  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  16  28  20  38 / 100  70  60  40
TIJERAS.........................  21  32  22  44 / 100  60  50  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  15  27  16  42 / 100  60  50  30
CLINES CORNERS..................  10  22  15  38 / 100  70  50  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  20  34  23  45 /  80  40  30  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  24  42  28  53 /  30  40  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  18  35  25  48 /  60  50  20  20
CAPULIN.........................   7  18   9  29 /  70  60  40  30
RATON...........................   9  21  10  32 /  70  60  50  30
SPRINGER........................   9  21  11  33 /  80  60  50  30
LAS VEGAS.......................   6  19  12  33 /  90  60  60  40
CLAYTON.........................   6  16  11  30 /  80  60  40  20
ROY.............................   8  18  11  30 /  80  60  50  30
CONCHAS.........................  15  23  17  37 /  80  70  40  20
SANTA ROSA......................  15  24  18  37 /  80  70  40  20
TUCUMCARI.......................  14  22  16  39 /  80  70  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  12  22  17  41 /  80  70  30  20
PORTALES........................  14  23  18  43 /  70  70  30  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  17  25  20  43 /  80  70  20  20
ROSWELL.........................  23  30  24  52 /  40  40  20  10
PICACHO.........................  18  28  22  51 /  50  40  20  10
ELK.............................  17  30  23  51 /  40  40  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ524-526-536-537-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>516-527>529-531-532.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ517-519.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-518-521>523.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511.

&&

$$

52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 261901 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1201 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO THE WINTER STATEMENTS HAS BEEN ISSUED...AND A QUICK
UPDATE TO TODAY`S POPS AND WEATHER ELEMENTS IS ALSO BEING PUSHED
OUT. OVERALL...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...JUST TRIED TO FINE-TUNE THE
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY IN THE
ALBUQEURQUE METRO AREA WITH SHADOWING EFFECTS FROM THE EAST CANYON
WIND STILL EXPECTED TO BE A LOCAL LIMITER FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...DESPITE SOME SIGNIFICANT MESOSCALE BANDING
DEPICTED ON THE NAM AND LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION WRF MODELS. HAVE
TRIED TO SIMPLIFY THE STATEMENTS FOR THE SANGRES AND NORTHEASTERN
ZONES...JUST EXTENDING THEM INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DESPITE A LULL
IN PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1125 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LVS/TCC WILL BE IMPACTED
MOST WITH SAF/ROW ALSO BEING IMPACTED. GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HR PERIOD. GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AT ABQ. POSSIBLE AWW DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE
EVENING. -SN WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TONIGHT INTO FRI ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
SN IS EXPECTED AT ABQ/SAF/AEG AND EVENTUALLY GUP. THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING SN AND WIND IMPACTS AT ABQ.
POSSIBLE AWW DUE TO SN AT ABQ LATER TONIGHT BUT GUSTY EAST WINDS
AND RUNWAY TEMPS COULD COMPLICATE MATTERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...355 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015...
...SNOW TO BECOME HEAVY ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT THEN VERY
HEAVY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS THIS
WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...
A CONTINUOUS PARADE OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS
NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEK. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLANDS.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD DOWN THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR TO THE TEXAS BORDER TONIGHT. SNOW IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEW SNOW THAT
ACCUMULATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
DUE TO HEAVY SNOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONGOING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK.

EXPANDED TONIGHTS WINTER STORM WATCH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
LINCOLN...DE BACA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON A MORE NORTHERLY SPREAD OF QPF BULLS EYES...BUT THE
06Z GFS DRAWS THEM FARTHER SOUTH LIKE THE NAM. THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE SACS AND CHAVES COUNTY OUT OF THE WATCH
FOR NOW...BUT HEAVY SNOW COULD IMPACT THOSE AREAS TOO. THE BULK OF
THE SNOW WITH TONIGHTS SYSTEM SHOULD FALL BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT...AS ELUDED IN THE SYNOPSIS...THE ONGOING
TRAIN OF STORM SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR A STREAM
OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NM IN SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BE A WARMER FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS
TO LIFT ABOVE 7000 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE 7500 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
NM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS.

ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CURRENT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING EASTERN NM WITH SNOW...SOME RAIN AT
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN CHAVES AND SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT
COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS PRETTY MUCH MADE IT THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PRESSED UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. IT WILL OOZE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TODAY THEN STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN ABQ.
THERE WILL BE NO WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES TODAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VALUES IN THE WEST AND FAIR TO GOOD IN THE EAST. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EAST
WHICH IS AROUND 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
UNUSUALLY HIGH ACROSS THE EAST TODAY. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE
EXCELLENT.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NM TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST FRIDAY. WITH THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR
POURING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT SNOW WILL EXPAND WEST
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VARIOUS WATCHES...WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. WE WILL ADD A COUPLE MORE ZONES TO THE
WATCH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. VENTILATION WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS
TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN BE UNUSUALLY
HIGH...THIS TIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL AIR MASS. HIGHS ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE
30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES SHAPE
TO OUR WEST. THIS LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME
HIGHER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS
THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WILL PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE
THAT WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME
FOUND NEAR THE SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WESTWARD AS WELL AS CHAMA AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO LIQUID WATER
AMOUNTS. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SNOW LEVELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT PERIOD.

THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF STORMS WILL BE STRONGER AS IT ARRIVES IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF CA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SLOW MOVING STORM WILL TAKE UNTIL
MONDAY TO REACH NM...ALTHOUGH IN A WEAKENED STATE. STILL...WITH LOTS
OF TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO GET PULLED INTO THE STATE...THERE WILL
BE A TON OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
A FEW FEET...NOT INCHES...OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF MONDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER EAST AS WELL LATE THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING THIS AREA THE
CHANCE OF SOME SNOW AS WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS AT LEAST
MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY AS WE GO FORWARD.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
BASED ON PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF FAIR TO POOR
RATES. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE WHILE THE
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER...WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ524-526-536-537-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>516-527>529-531-532.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ517-519.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-518-521>523.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511.

&&

$$

52





000
FXUS65 KABQ 261901 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1201 PM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO THE WINTER STATEMENTS HAS BEEN ISSUED...AND A QUICK
UPDATE TO TODAY`S POPS AND WEATHER ELEMENTS IS ALSO BEING PUSHED
OUT. OVERALL...FORECAST IS ON TRACK...JUST TRIED TO FINE-TUNE THE
ADVISORIES AND WARNINGS. HAVE OPTED TO GO WITH AN ADVISORY IN THE
ALBUQEURQUE METRO AREA WITH SHADOWING EFFECTS FROM THE EAST CANYON
WIND STILL EXPECTED TO BE A LOCAL LIMITER FOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...DESPITE SOME SIGNIFICANT MESOSCALE BANDING
DEPICTED ON THE NAM AND LOCAL HIGH RESOLUTION WRF MODELS. HAVE
TRIED TO SIMPLIFY THE STATEMENTS FOR THE SANGRES AND NORTHEASTERN
ZONES...JUST EXTENDING THEM INTO TONIGHT AND FRIDAY DESPITE A LULL
IN PRECIPITATION THIS AFTERNOON.

52

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1125 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LVS/TCC WILL BE IMPACTED
MOST WITH SAF/ROW ALSO BEING IMPACTED. GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HR PERIOD. GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AT ABQ. POSSIBLE AWW DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE
EVENING. -SN WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TONIGHT INTO FRI ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
SN IS EXPECTED AT ABQ/SAF/AEG AND EVENTUALLY GUP. THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING SN AND WIND IMPACTS AT ABQ.
POSSIBLE AWW DUE TO SN AT ABQ LATER TONIGHT BUT GUSTY EAST WINDS
AND RUNWAY TEMPS COULD COMPLICATE MATTERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...355 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015...
...SNOW TO BECOME HEAVY ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT THEN VERY
HEAVY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS THIS
WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...
A CONTINUOUS PARADE OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS
NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEK. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLANDS.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD DOWN THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR TO THE TEXAS BORDER TONIGHT. SNOW IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEW SNOW THAT
ACCUMULATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
DUE TO HEAVY SNOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONGOING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK.

EXPANDED TONIGHTS WINTER STORM WATCH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
LINCOLN...DE BACA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON A MORE NORTHERLY SPREAD OF QPF BULLS EYES...BUT THE
06Z GFS DRAWS THEM FARTHER SOUTH LIKE THE NAM. THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE SACS AND CHAVES COUNTY OUT OF THE WATCH
FOR NOW...BUT HEAVY SNOW COULD IMPACT THOSE AREAS TOO. THE BULK OF
THE SNOW WITH TONIGHTS SYSTEM SHOULD FALL BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT...AS ELUDED IN THE SYNOPSIS...THE ONGOING
TRAIN OF STORM SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR A STREAM
OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NM IN SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BE A WARMER FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS
TO LIFT ABOVE 7000 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE 7500 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
NM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS.

ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CURRENT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING EASTERN NM WITH SNOW...SOME RAIN AT
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN CHAVES AND SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT
COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS PRETTY MUCH MADE IT THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PRESSED UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. IT WILL OOZE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TODAY THEN STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN ABQ.
THERE WILL BE NO WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES TODAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VALUES IN THE WEST AND FAIR TO GOOD IN THE EAST. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EAST
WHICH IS AROUND 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
UNUSUALLY HIGH ACROSS THE EAST TODAY. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE
EXCELLENT.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NM TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST FRIDAY. WITH THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR
POURING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT SNOW WILL EXPAND WEST
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VARIOUS WATCHES...WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. WE WILL ADD A COUPLE MORE ZONES TO THE
WATCH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. VENTILATION WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS
TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN BE UNUSUALLY
HIGH...THIS TIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL AIR MASS. HIGHS ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE
30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES SHAPE
TO OUR WEST. THIS LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME
HIGHER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS
THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WILL PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE
THAT WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME
FOUND NEAR THE SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WESTWARD AS WELL AS CHAMA AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO LIQUID WATER
AMOUNTS. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SNOW LEVELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT PERIOD.

THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF STORMS WILL BE STRONGER AS IT ARRIVES IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF CA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SLOW MOVING STORM WILL TAKE UNTIL
MONDAY TO REACH NM...ALTHOUGH IN A WEAKENED STATE. STILL...WITH LOTS
OF TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO GET PULLED INTO THE STATE...THERE WILL
BE A TON OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
A FEW FEET...NOT INCHES...OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF MONDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER EAST AS WELL LATE THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING THIS AREA THE
CHANCE OF SOME SNOW AS WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS AT LEAST
MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY AS WE GO FORWARD.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
BASED ON PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF FAIR TO POOR
RATES. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE WHILE THE
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER...WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ524-526-536-537-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>516-527>529-531-532.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ517-519.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-518-521>523.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511.

&&

$$

52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 261825 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1125 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LVS/TCC WILL BE IMPACTED
MOST WITH SAF/ROW ALSO BEING IMPACTED. GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HR PERIOD. GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AT ABQ. POSSIBLE AWW DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE
EVENING. -SN WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TONIGHT INTO FRI ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
SN IS EXPECTED AT ABQ/SAF/AEG AND EVENTUALLY GUP. THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING SN AND WIND IMPACTS AT ABQ.
POSSIBLE AWW DUE TO SN AT ABQ LATER TONIGHT BUT GUSTY EAST WINDS
AND RUNWAY TEMPS COULD COMPLICATE MATTERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...355 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015...
...SNOW TO BECOME HEAVY ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT THEN VERY
HEAVY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS THIS
WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...
A CONTINUOUS PARADE OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS
NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEK. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLANDS.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD DOWN THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR TO THE TEXAS BORDER TONIGHT. SNOW IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEW SNOW THAT
ACCUMULATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
DUE TO HEAVY SNOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONGOING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK.

EXPANDED TONIGHTS WINTER STORM WATCH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
LINCOLN...DE BACA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON A MORE NORTHERLY SPREAD OF QPF BULLS EYES...BUT THE
06Z GFS DRAWS THEM FARTHER SOUTH LIKE THE NAM. THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE SACS AND CHAVES COUNTY OUT OF THE WATCH
FOR NOW...BUT HEAVY SNOW COULD IMPACT THOSE AREAS TOO. THE BULK OF
THE SNOW WITH TONIGHTS SYSTEM SHOULD FALL BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT...AS ELUDED IN THE SYNOPSIS...THE ONGOING
TRAIN OF STORM SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR A STREAM
OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NM IN SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BE A WARMER FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS
TO LIFT ABOVE 7000 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE 7500 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
NM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS.

ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CURRENT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING EASTERN NM WITH SNOW...SOME RAIN AT
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN CHAVES AND SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT
COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS PRETTY MUCH MADE IT THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PRESSED UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. IT WILL OOZE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TODAY THEN STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN ABQ.
THERE WILL BE NO WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES TODAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VALUES IN THE WEST AND FAIR TO GOOD IN THE EAST. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EAST
WHICH IS AROUND 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
UNUSUALLY HIGH ACROSS THE EAST TODAY. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE
EXCELLENT.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NM TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST FRIDAY. WITH THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR
POURING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT SNOW WILL EXPAND WEST
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VARIOUS WATCHES...WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. WE WILL ADD A COUPLE MORE ZONES TO THE
WATCH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. VENTILATION WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS
TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN BE UNUSUALLY
HIGH...THIS TIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL AIR MASS. HIGHS ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE
30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES SHAPE
TO OUR WEST. THIS LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME
HIGHER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS
THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WILL PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE
THAT WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME
FOUND NEAR THE SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WESTWARD AS WELL AS CHAMA AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO LIQUID WATER
AMOUNTS. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SNOW LEVELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT PERIOD.

THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF STORMS WILL BE STRONGER AS IT ARRIVES IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF CA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SLOW MOVING STORM WILL TAKE UNTIL
MONDAY TO REACH NM...ALTHOUGH IN A WEAKENED STATE. STILL...WITH LOTS
OF TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO GET PULLED INTO THE STATE...THERE WILL
BE A TON OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
A FEW FEET...NOT INCHES...OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF MONDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER EAST AS WELL LATE THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING THIS AREA THE
CHANCE OF SOME SNOW AS WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS AT LEAST
MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY AS WE GO FORWARD.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
BASED ON PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF FAIR TO POOR
RATES. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE WHILE THE
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER...WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ524-526-536-537-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>516-527>529-531-532.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ517-519.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-518-521>523.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 261825 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1125 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LVS/TCC WILL BE IMPACTED
MOST WITH SAF/ROW ALSO BEING IMPACTED. GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HR PERIOD. GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AT ABQ. POSSIBLE AWW DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE
EVENING. -SN WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TONIGHT INTO FRI ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
SN IS EXPECTED AT ABQ/SAF/AEG AND EVENTUALLY GUP. THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING SN AND WIND IMPACTS AT ABQ.
POSSIBLE AWW DUE TO SN AT ABQ LATER TONIGHT BUT GUSTY EAST WINDS
AND RUNWAY TEMPS COULD COMPLICATE MATTERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...355 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015...
...SNOW TO BECOME HEAVY ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT THEN VERY
HEAVY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS THIS
WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...
A CONTINUOUS PARADE OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS
NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEK. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLANDS.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD DOWN THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR TO THE TEXAS BORDER TONIGHT. SNOW IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEW SNOW THAT
ACCUMULATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
DUE TO HEAVY SNOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONGOING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK.

EXPANDED TONIGHTS WINTER STORM WATCH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
LINCOLN...DE BACA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON A MORE NORTHERLY SPREAD OF QPF BULLS EYES...BUT THE
06Z GFS DRAWS THEM FARTHER SOUTH LIKE THE NAM. THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE SACS AND CHAVES COUNTY OUT OF THE WATCH
FOR NOW...BUT HEAVY SNOW COULD IMPACT THOSE AREAS TOO. THE BULK OF
THE SNOW WITH TONIGHTS SYSTEM SHOULD FALL BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT...AS ELUDED IN THE SYNOPSIS...THE ONGOING
TRAIN OF STORM SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR A STREAM
OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NM IN SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BE A WARMER FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS
TO LIFT ABOVE 7000 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE 7500 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
NM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS.

ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CURRENT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING EASTERN NM WITH SNOW...SOME RAIN AT
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN CHAVES AND SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT
COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS PRETTY MUCH MADE IT THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PRESSED UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. IT WILL OOZE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TODAY THEN STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN ABQ.
THERE WILL BE NO WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES TODAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VALUES IN THE WEST AND FAIR TO GOOD IN THE EAST. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EAST
WHICH IS AROUND 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
UNUSUALLY HIGH ACROSS THE EAST TODAY. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE
EXCELLENT.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NM TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST FRIDAY. WITH THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR
POURING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT SNOW WILL EXPAND WEST
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VARIOUS WATCHES...WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. WE WILL ADD A COUPLE MORE ZONES TO THE
WATCH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. VENTILATION WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS
TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN BE UNUSUALLY
HIGH...THIS TIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL AIR MASS. HIGHS ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE
30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES SHAPE
TO OUR WEST. THIS LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME
HIGHER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS
THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WILL PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE
THAT WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME
FOUND NEAR THE SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WESTWARD AS WELL AS CHAMA AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO LIQUID WATER
AMOUNTS. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SNOW LEVELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT PERIOD.

THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF STORMS WILL BE STRONGER AS IT ARRIVES IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF CA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SLOW MOVING STORM WILL TAKE UNTIL
MONDAY TO REACH NM...ALTHOUGH IN A WEAKENED STATE. STILL...WITH LOTS
OF TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO GET PULLED INTO THE STATE...THERE WILL
BE A TON OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
A FEW FEET...NOT INCHES...OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF MONDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER EAST AS WELL LATE THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING THIS AREA THE
CHANCE OF SOME SNOW AS WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS AT LEAST
MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY AS WE GO FORWARD.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
BASED ON PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF FAIR TO POOR
RATES. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE WHILE THE
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER...WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ524-526-536-537-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>516-527>529-531-532.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ517-519.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-518-521>523.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 261825 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1125 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LVS/TCC WILL BE IMPACTED
MOST WITH SAF/ROW ALSO BEING IMPACTED. GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HR PERIOD. GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AT ABQ. POSSIBLE AWW DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE
EVENING. -SN WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TONIGHT INTO FRI ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
SN IS EXPECTED AT ABQ/SAF/AEG AND EVENTUALLY GUP. THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING SN AND WIND IMPACTS AT ABQ.
POSSIBLE AWW DUE TO SN AT ABQ LATER TONIGHT BUT GUSTY EAST WINDS
AND RUNWAY TEMPS COULD COMPLICATE MATTERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...355 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015...
...SNOW TO BECOME HEAVY ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT THEN VERY
HEAVY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS THIS
WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...
A CONTINUOUS PARADE OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS
NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEK. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLANDS.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD DOWN THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR TO THE TEXAS BORDER TONIGHT. SNOW IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEW SNOW THAT
ACCUMULATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
DUE TO HEAVY SNOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONGOING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK.

EXPANDED TONIGHTS WINTER STORM WATCH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
LINCOLN...DE BACA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON A MORE NORTHERLY SPREAD OF QPF BULLS EYES...BUT THE
06Z GFS DRAWS THEM FARTHER SOUTH LIKE THE NAM. THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE SACS AND CHAVES COUNTY OUT OF THE WATCH
FOR NOW...BUT HEAVY SNOW COULD IMPACT THOSE AREAS TOO. THE BULK OF
THE SNOW WITH TONIGHTS SYSTEM SHOULD FALL BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT...AS ELUDED IN THE SYNOPSIS...THE ONGOING
TRAIN OF STORM SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR A STREAM
OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NM IN SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BE A WARMER FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS
TO LIFT ABOVE 7000 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE 7500 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
NM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS.

ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CURRENT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING EASTERN NM WITH SNOW...SOME RAIN AT
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN CHAVES AND SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT
COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS PRETTY MUCH MADE IT THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PRESSED UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. IT WILL OOZE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TODAY THEN STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN ABQ.
THERE WILL BE NO WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES TODAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VALUES IN THE WEST AND FAIR TO GOOD IN THE EAST. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EAST
WHICH IS AROUND 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
UNUSUALLY HIGH ACROSS THE EAST TODAY. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE
EXCELLENT.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NM TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST FRIDAY. WITH THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR
POURING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT SNOW WILL EXPAND WEST
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VARIOUS WATCHES...WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. WE WILL ADD A COUPLE MORE ZONES TO THE
WATCH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. VENTILATION WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS
TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN BE UNUSUALLY
HIGH...THIS TIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL AIR MASS. HIGHS ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE
30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES SHAPE
TO OUR WEST. THIS LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME
HIGHER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS
THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WILL PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE
THAT WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME
FOUND NEAR THE SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WESTWARD AS WELL AS CHAMA AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO LIQUID WATER
AMOUNTS. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SNOW LEVELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT PERIOD.

THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF STORMS WILL BE STRONGER AS IT ARRIVES IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF CA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SLOW MOVING STORM WILL TAKE UNTIL
MONDAY TO REACH NM...ALTHOUGH IN A WEAKENED STATE. STILL...WITH LOTS
OF TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO GET PULLED INTO THE STATE...THERE WILL
BE A TON OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
A FEW FEET...NOT INCHES...OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF MONDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER EAST AS WELL LATE THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING THIS AREA THE
CHANCE OF SOME SNOW AS WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS AT LEAST
MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY AS WE GO FORWARD.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
BASED ON PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF FAIR TO POOR
RATES. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE WHILE THE
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER...WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ524-526-536-537-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>516-527>529-531-532.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ517-519.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-518-521>523.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 261825 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1125 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. LVS/TCC WILL BE IMPACTED
MOST WITH SAF/ROW ALSO BEING IMPACTED. GAP WINDS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH MOST OF THE 24 HR PERIOD. GUSTS TO 35 KT POSSIBLE THIS
EVENING AT ABQ. POSSIBLE AWW DUE TO THE GUSTY WINDS DURING THE
EVENING. -SN WILL EXPAND WESTWARD TONIGHT INTO FRI ACROSS
WESTERN/CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA. IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO
SN IS EXPECTED AT ABQ/SAF/AEG AND EVENTUALLY GUP. THE BIGGEST
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE DETERMINING SN AND WIND IMPACTS AT ABQ.
POSSIBLE AWW DUE TO SN AT ABQ LATER TONIGHT BUT GUSTY EAST WINDS
AND RUNWAY TEMPS COULD COMPLICATE MATTERS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...355 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015...
...SNOW TO BECOME HEAVY ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT THEN VERY
HEAVY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS THIS
WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...
A CONTINUOUS PARADE OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS
NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEK. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLANDS.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD DOWN THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR TO THE TEXAS BORDER TONIGHT. SNOW IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEW SNOW THAT
ACCUMULATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
DUE TO HEAVY SNOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONGOING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK.

EXPANDED TONIGHTS WINTER STORM WATCH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
LINCOLN...DE BACA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON A MORE NORTHERLY SPREAD OF QPF BULLS EYES...BUT THE
06Z GFS DRAWS THEM FARTHER SOUTH LIKE THE NAM. THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE SACS AND CHAVES COUNTY OUT OF THE WATCH
FOR NOW...BUT HEAVY SNOW COULD IMPACT THOSE AREAS TOO. THE BULK OF
THE SNOW WITH TONIGHTS SYSTEM SHOULD FALL BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT...AS ELUDED IN THE SYNOPSIS...THE ONGOING
TRAIN OF STORM SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR A STREAM
OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NM IN SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BE A WARMER FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS
TO LIFT ABOVE 7000 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE 7500 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
NM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS.

ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CURRENT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING EASTERN NM WITH SNOW...SOME RAIN AT
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN CHAVES AND SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT
COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS PRETTY MUCH MADE IT THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PRESSED UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. IT WILL OOZE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TODAY THEN STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN ABQ.
THERE WILL BE NO WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES TODAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VALUES IN THE WEST AND FAIR TO GOOD IN THE EAST. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EAST
WHICH IS AROUND 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
UNUSUALLY HIGH ACROSS THE EAST TODAY. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE
EXCELLENT.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NM TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST FRIDAY. WITH THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR
POURING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT SNOW WILL EXPAND WEST
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VARIOUS WATCHES...WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. WE WILL ADD A COUPLE MORE ZONES TO THE
WATCH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. VENTILATION WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS
TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN BE UNUSUALLY
HIGH...THIS TIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL AIR MASS. HIGHS ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE
30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES SHAPE
TO OUR WEST. THIS LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME
HIGHER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS
THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WILL PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE
THAT WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME
FOUND NEAR THE SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WESTWARD AS WELL AS CHAMA AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO LIQUID WATER
AMOUNTS. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SNOW LEVELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT PERIOD.

THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF STORMS WILL BE STRONGER AS IT ARRIVES IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF CA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SLOW MOVING STORM WILL TAKE UNTIL
MONDAY TO REACH NM...ALTHOUGH IN A WEAKENED STATE. STILL...WITH LOTS
OF TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO GET PULLED INTO THE STATE...THERE WILL
BE A TON OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
A FEW FEET...NOT INCHES...OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF MONDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER EAST AS WELL LATE THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING THIS AREA THE
CHANCE OF SOME SNOW AS WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS AT LEAST
MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY AS WE GO FORWARD.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
BASED ON PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF FAIR TO POOR
RATES. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE WHILE THE
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER...WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON MST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ524-526-536-537-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>516-527>529-531-532.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ517-519.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 5 PM MST FRIDAY FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-518-521>523.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 261152
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
452 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBY WITH AREAS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBY IN SN WILL
CONTINUE THIS AM ACROSS EASTERN NM. ALSO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN WILL BE OBSCURED. COLD FRONT HAS BACKED UP TO THE CENTRAL
MT CHAIN AND EAST CANYON WINDS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY INTO THE ABQ
AREA. GAP WINDS NOT THAT STRONG THOUGH UNTIL AFTER 00Z WHEN GUSTS
AROUND 30 KT LIKELY. SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS PM WITH CIGS AND
VSBYS IMPROVING...ONLY TO LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING SNOW IN THE SAF...ABQ...AEG...LVS AND
TCC TAF SITES AFTER 02Z FRIDAY. WIDEPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE NIGHT WITH MT OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...355 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015...
...SNOW TO BECOME HEAVY ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT THEN VERY
HEAVY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS THIS
WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...
A CONTINUOUS PARADE OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS
NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEK. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLANDS.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD DOWN THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR TO THE TEXAS BORDER TONIGHT. SNOW IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEW SNOW THAT
ACCUMULATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
DUE TO HEAVY SNOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONGOING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK.

EXPANDED TONIGHTS WINTER STORM WATCH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
LINCOLN...DE BACA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON A MORE NORTHERLY SPREAD OF QPF BULLS EYES...BUT THE
06Z GFS DRAWS THEM FARTHER SOUTH LIKE THE NAM. THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE SACS AND CHAVES COUNTY OUT OF THE WATCH
FOR NOW...BUT HEAVY SNOW COULD IMPACT THOSE AREAS TOO. THE BULK OF
THE SNOW WITH TONIGHTS SYSTEM SHOULD FALL BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT...AS ELUDED IN THE SYNOPSIS...THE ONGOING
TRAIN OF STORM SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR A STREAM
OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NM IN SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BE A WARMER FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS
TO LIFT ABOVE 7000 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE 7500 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
NM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS.

ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CURRENT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING EASTERN NM WITH SNOW...SOME RAIN AT
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN CHAVES AND SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT
COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS PRETTY MUCH MADE IT THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PRESSED UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. IT WILL OOZE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TODAY THEN STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN ABQ.
THERE WILL BE NO WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES TODAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VALUES IN THE WEST AND FAIR TO GOOD IN THE EAST. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EAST
WHICH IS AROUND 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
UNUSUALLY HIGH ACROSS THE EAST TODAY. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE
EXCELLENT.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NM TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST FRIDAY. WITH THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR
POURING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT SNOW WILL EXPAND WEST
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VARIOUS WATCHES...WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. WE WILL ADD A COUPLE MORE ZONES TO THE
WATCH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. VENTILATION WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS
TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN BE UNUSUALLY
HIGH...THIS TIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL AIR MASS. HIGHS ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE
30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES SHAPE
TO OUR WEST. THIS LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME
HIGHER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS
THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WILL PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE
THAT WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME
FOUND NEAR THE SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WESTWARD AS WELL AS CHAMA AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO LIQUID WATER
AMOUNTS. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SNOW LEVELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT PERIOD.

THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF STORMS WILL BE STRONGER AS IT ARRIVES IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF CA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SLOW MOVING STORM WILL TAKE UNTIL
MONDAY TO REACH NM...ALTHOUGH IN A WEAKENED STATE. STILL...WITH LOTS
OF TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO GET PULLED INTO THE STATE...THERE WILL
BE A TON OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
A FEW FEET...NOT INCHES...OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF MONDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER EAST AS WELL LATE THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING THIS AREA THE
CHANCE OF SOME SNOW AS WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS AT LEAST
MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY AS WE GO FORWARD.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
BASED ON PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF FAIR TO POOR
RATES. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE WHILE THE
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER...WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ536-537-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ516-530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-527>529-531-532.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-517>519-521>524.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 261152
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
452 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBY WITH AREAS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBY IN SN WILL
CONTINUE THIS AM ACROSS EASTERN NM. ALSO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN WILL BE OBSCURED. COLD FRONT HAS BACKED UP TO THE CENTRAL
MT CHAIN AND EAST CANYON WINDS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY INTO THE ABQ
AREA. GAP WINDS NOT THAT STRONG THOUGH UNTIL AFTER 00Z WHEN GUSTS
AROUND 30 KT LIKELY. SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS PM WITH CIGS AND
VSBYS IMPROVING...ONLY TO LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING SNOW IN THE SAF...ABQ...AEG...LVS AND
TCC TAF SITES AFTER 02Z FRIDAY. WIDEPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE NIGHT WITH MT OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...355 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015...
...SNOW TO BECOME HEAVY ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT THEN VERY
HEAVY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS THIS
WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...
A CONTINUOUS PARADE OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS
NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEK. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLANDS.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD DOWN THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR TO THE TEXAS BORDER TONIGHT. SNOW IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEW SNOW THAT
ACCUMULATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
DUE TO HEAVY SNOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONGOING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK.

EXPANDED TONIGHTS WINTER STORM WATCH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
LINCOLN...DE BACA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON A MORE NORTHERLY SPREAD OF QPF BULLS EYES...BUT THE
06Z GFS DRAWS THEM FARTHER SOUTH LIKE THE NAM. THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE SACS AND CHAVES COUNTY OUT OF THE WATCH
FOR NOW...BUT HEAVY SNOW COULD IMPACT THOSE AREAS TOO. THE BULK OF
THE SNOW WITH TONIGHTS SYSTEM SHOULD FALL BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT...AS ELUDED IN THE SYNOPSIS...THE ONGOING
TRAIN OF STORM SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR A STREAM
OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NM IN SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BE A WARMER FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS
TO LIFT ABOVE 7000 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE 7500 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
NM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS.

ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CURRENT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING EASTERN NM WITH SNOW...SOME RAIN AT
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN CHAVES AND SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT
COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS PRETTY MUCH MADE IT THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PRESSED UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. IT WILL OOZE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TODAY THEN STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN ABQ.
THERE WILL BE NO WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES TODAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VALUES IN THE WEST AND FAIR TO GOOD IN THE EAST. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EAST
WHICH IS AROUND 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
UNUSUALLY HIGH ACROSS THE EAST TODAY. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE
EXCELLENT.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NM TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST FRIDAY. WITH THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR
POURING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT SNOW WILL EXPAND WEST
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VARIOUS WATCHES...WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. WE WILL ADD A COUPLE MORE ZONES TO THE
WATCH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. VENTILATION WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS
TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN BE UNUSUALLY
HIGH...THIS TIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL AIR MASS. HIGHS ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE
30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES SHAPE
TO OUR WEST. THIS LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME
HIGHER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS
THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WILL PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE
THAT WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME
FOUND NEAR THE SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WESTWARD AS WELL AS CHAMA AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO LIQUID WATER
AMOUNTS. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SNOW LEVELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT PERIOD.

THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF STORMS WILL BE STRONGER AS IT ARRIVES IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF CA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SLOW MOVING STORM WILL TAKE UNTIL
MONDAY TO REACH NM...ALTHOUGH IN A WEAKENED STATE. STILL...WITH LOTS
OF TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO GET PULLED INTO THE STATE...THERE WILL
BE A TON OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
A FEW FEET...NOT INCHES...OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF MONDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER EAST AS WELL LATE THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING THIS AREA THE
CHANCE OF SOME SNOW AS WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS AT LEAST
MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY AS WE GO FORWARD.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
BASED ON PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF FAIR TO POOR
RATES. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE WHILE THE
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER...WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ536-537-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ516-530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-527>529-531-532.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-517>519-521>524.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 261152
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
452 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBY WITH AREAS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBY IN SN WILL
CONTINUE THIS AM ACROSS EASTERN NM. ALSO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN WILL BE OBSCURED. COLD FRONT HAS BACKED UP TO THE CENTRAL
MT CHAIN AND EAST CANYON WINDS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY INTO THE ABQ
AREA. GAP WINDS NOT THAT STRONG THOUGH UNTIL AFTER 00Z WHEN GUSTS
AROUND 30 KT LIKELY. SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS PM WITH CIGS AND
VSBYS IMPROVING...ONLY TO LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING SNOW IN THE SAF...ABQ...AEG...LVS AND
TCC TAF SITES AFTER 02Z FRIDAY. WIDEPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE NIGHT WITH MT OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...355 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015...
...SNOW TO BECOME HEAVY ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT THEN VERY
HEAVY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS THIS
WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...
A CONTINUOUS PARADE OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS
NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEK. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLANDS.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD DOWN THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR TO THE TEXAS BORDER TONIGHT. SNOW IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEW SNOW THAT
ACCUMULATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
DUE TO HEAVY SNOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONGOING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK.

EXPANDED TONIGHTS WINTER STORM WATCH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
LINCOLN...DE BACA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON A MORE NORTHERLY SPREAD OF QPF BULLS EYES...BUT THE
06Z GFS DRAWS THEM FARTHER SOUTH LIKE THE NAM. THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE SACS AND CHAVES COUNTY OUT OF THE WATCH
FOR NOW...BUT HEAVY SNOW COULD IMPACT THOSE AREAS TOO. THE BULK OF
THE SNOW WITH TONIGHTS SYSTEM SHOULD FALL BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT...AS ELUDED IN THE SYNOPSIS...THE ONGOING
TRAIN OF STORM SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR A STREAM
OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NM IN SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BE A WARMER FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS
TO LIFT ABOVE 7000 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE 7500 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
NM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS.

ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CURRENT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING EASTERN NM WITH SNOW...SOME RAIN AT
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN CHAVES AND SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT
COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS PRETTY MUCH MADE IT THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PRESSED UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. IT WILL OOZE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TODAY THEN STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN ABQ.
THERE WILL BE NO WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES TODAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VALUES IN THE WEST AND FAIR TO GOOD IN THE EAST. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EAST
WHICH IS AROUND 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
UNUSUALLY HIGH ACROSS THE EAST TODAY. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE
EXCELLENT.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NM TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST FRIDAY. WITH THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR
POURING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT SNOW WILL EXPAND WEST
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VARIOUS WATCHES...WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. WE WILL ADD A COUPLE MORE ZONES TO THE
WATCH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. VENTILATION WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS
TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN BE UNUSUALLY
HIGH...THIS TIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL AIR MASS. HIGHS ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE
30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES SHAPE
TO OUR WEST. THIS LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME
HIGHER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS
THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WILL PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE
THAT WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME
FOUND NEAR THE SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WESTWARD AS WELL AS CHAMA AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO LIQUID WATER
AMOUNTS. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SNOW LEVELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT PERIOD.

THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF STORMS WILL BE STRONGER AS IT ARRIVES IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF CA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SLOW MOVING STORM WILL TAKE UNTIL
MONDAY TO REACH NM...ALTHOUGH IN A WEAKENED STATE. STILL...WITH LOTS
OF TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO GET PULLED INTO THE STATE...THERE WILL
BE A TON OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
A FEW FEET...NOT INCHES...OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF MONDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER EAST AS WELL LATE THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING THIS AREA THE
CHANCE OF SOME SNOW AS WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS AT LEAST
MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY AS WE GO FORWARD.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
BASED ON PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF FAIR TO POOR
RATES. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE WHILE THE
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER...WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ536-537-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ516-530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-527>529-531-532.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-517>519-521>524.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 261152
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
452 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBY WITH AREAS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBY IN SN WILL
CONTINUE THIS AM ACROSS EASTERN NM. ALSO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN WILL BE OBSCURED. COLD FRONT HAS BACKED UP TO THE CENTRAL
MT CHAIN AND EAST CANYON WINDS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY INTO THE ABQ
AREA. GAP WINDS NOT THAT STRONG THOUGH UNTIL AFTER 00Z WHEN GUSTS
AROUND 30 KT LIKELY. SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS PM WITH CIGS AND
VSBYS IMPROVING...ONLY TO LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING SNOW IN THE SAF...ABQ...AEG...LVS AND
TCC TAF SITES AFTER 02Z FRIDAY. WIDEPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE NIGHT WITH MT OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...355 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015...
...SNOW TO BECOME HEAVY ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT THEN VERY
HEAVY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS THIS
WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...
A CONTINUOUS PARADE OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS
NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEK. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLANDS.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD DOWN THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR TO THE TEXAS BORDER TONIGHT. SNOW IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEW SNOW THAT
ACCUMULATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
DUE TO HEAVY SNOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONGOING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK.

EXPANDED TONIGHTS WINTER STORM WATCH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
LINCOLN...DE BACA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON A MORE NORTHERLY SPREAD OF QPF BULLS EYES...BUT THE
06Z GFS DRAWS THEM FARTHER SOUTH LIKE THE NAM. THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE SACS AND CHAVES COUNTY OUT OF THE WATCH
FOR NOW...BUT HEAVY SNOW COULD IMPACT THOSE AREAS TOO. THE BULK OF
THE SNOW WITH TONIGHTS SYSTEM SHOULD FALL BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT...AS ELUDED IN THE SYNOPSIS...THE ONGOING
TRAIN OF STORM SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR A STREAM
OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NM IN SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BE A WARMER FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS
TO LIFT ABOVE 7000 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE 7500 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
NM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS.

ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CURRENT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING EASTERN NM WITH SNOW...SOME RAIN AT
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN CHAVES AND SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT
COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS PRETTY MUCH MADE IT THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PRESSED UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. IT WILL OOZE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TODAY THEN STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN ABQ.
THERE WILL BE NO WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES TODAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VALUES IN THE WEST AND FAIR TO GOOD IN THE EAST. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EAST
WHICH IS AROUND 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
UNUSUALLY HIGH ACROSS THE EAST TODAY. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE
EXCELLENT.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NM TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST FRIDAY. WITH THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR
POURING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT SNOW WILL EXPAND WEST
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VARIOUS WATCHES...WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. WE WILL ADD A COUPLE MORE ZONES TO THE
WATCH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. VENTILATION WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS
TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN BE UNUSUALLY
HIGH...THIS TIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL AIR MASS. HIGHS ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE
30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES SHAPE
TO OUR WEST. THIS LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME
HIGHER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS
THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WILL PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE
THAT WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME
FOUND NEAR THE SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WESTWARD AS WELL AS CHAMA AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO LIQUID WATER
AMOUNTS. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SNOW LEVELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT PERIOD.

THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF STORMS WILL BE STRONGER AS IT ARRIVES IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF CA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SLOW MOVING STORM WILL TAKE UNTIL
MONDAY TO REACH NM...ALTHOUGH IN A WEAKENED STATE. STILL...WITH LOTS
OF TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO GET PULLED INTO THE STATE...THERE WILL
BE A TON OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
A FEW FEET...NOT INCHES...OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF MONDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER EAST AS WELL LATE THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING THIS AREA THE
CHANCE OF SOME SNOW AS WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS AT LEAST
MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY AS WE GO FORWARD.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
BASED ON PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF FAIR TO POOR
RATES. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE WHILE THE
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER...WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ536-537-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ516-530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-527>529-531-532.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-517>519-521>524.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 261152
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
452 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBY WITH AREAS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBY IN SN WILL
CONTINUE THIS AM ACROSS EASTERN NM. ALSO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN WILL BE OBSCURED. COLD FRONT HAS BACKED UP TO THE CENTRAL
MT CHAIN AND EAST CANYON WINDS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY INTO THE ABQ
AREA. GAP WINDS NOT THAT STRONG THOUGH UNTIL AFTER 00Z WHEN GUSTS
AROUND 30 KT LIKELY. SNOW WILL DIMINISH THIS PM WITH CIGS AND
VSBYS IMPROVING...ONLY TO LOWER AGAIN TONIGHT AS THE NEXT STORM
SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST. WIDESPREAD SNOW TO DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT WITH PREVAILING SNOW IN THE SAF...ABQ...AEG...LVS AND
TCC TAF SITES AFTER 02Z FRIDAY. WIDEPREAD IFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS
DURING THE NIGHT WITH MT OBSCURATIONS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...355 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015...
...SNOW TO BECOME HEAVY ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT THEN VERY
HEAVY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS THIS
WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...
A CONTINUOUS PARADE OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS
NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEK. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLANDS.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD DOWN THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR TO THE TEXAS BORDER TONIGHT. SNOW IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEW SNOW THAT
ACCUMULATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
DUE TO HEAVY SNOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONGOING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK.

EXPANDED TONIGHTS WINTER STORM WATCH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
LINCOLN...DE BACA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON A MORE NORTHERLY SPREAD OF QPF BULLS EYES...BUT THE
06Z GFS DRAWS THEM FARTHER SOUTH LIKE THE NAM. THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE SACS AND CHAVES COUNTY OUT OF THE WATCH
FOR NOW...BUT HEAVY SNOW COULD IMPACT THOSE AREAS TOO. THE BULK OF
THE SNOW WITH TONIGHTS SYSTEM SHOULD FALL BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT...AS ELUDED IN THE SYNOPSIS...THE ONGOING
TRAIN OF STORM SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR A STREAM
OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NM IN SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BE A WARMER FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS
TO LIFT ABOVE 7000 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE 7500 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
NM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS.

ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR
THE NEXT 7 DAYS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CURRENT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING EASTERN NM WITH SNOW...SOME RAIN AT
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN CHAVES AND SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT
COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS PRETTY MUCH MADE IT THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PRESSED UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. IT WILL OOZE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TODAY THEN STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN ABQ.
THERE WILL BE NO WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES TODAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VALUES IN THE WEST AND FAIR TO GOOD IN THE EAST. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EAST
WHICH IS AROUND 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
UNUSUALLY HIGH ACROSS THE EAST TODAY. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE
EXCELLENT.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NM TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST FRIDAY. WITH THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR
POURING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT SNOW WILL EXPAND WEST
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VARIOUS WATCHES...WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. WE WILL ADD A COUPLE MORE ZONES TO THE
WATCH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. VENTILATION WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS
TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN BE UNUSUALLY
HIGH...THIS TIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL AIR MASS. HIGHS ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE
30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES SHAPE
TO OUR WEST. THIS LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME
HIGHER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS
THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WILL PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE
THAT WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME
FOUND NEAR THE SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WESTWARD AS WELL AS CHAMA AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO LIQUID WATER
AMOUNTS. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SNOW LEVELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT PERIOD.

THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF STORMS WILL BE STRONGER AS IT ARRIVES IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF CA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SLOW MOVING STORM WILL TAKE UNTIL
MONDAY TO REACH NM...ALTHOUGH IN A WEAKENED STATE. STILL...WITH LOTS
OF TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO GET PULLED INTO THE STATE...THERE WILL
BE A TON OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
A FEW FEET...NOT INCHES...OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF MONDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER EAST AS WELL LATE THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING THIS AREA THE
CHANCE OF SOME SNOW AS WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS AT LEAST
MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY AS WE GO FORWARD.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
BASED ON PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF FAIR TO POOR
RATES. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE WHILE THE
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER...WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ536-537-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ516-530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-527>529-531-532.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-517>519-521>524.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 261055
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
355 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

...SNOW TO BECOME HEAVY ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT THEN VERY
HEAVY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS THIS
WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...
A CONTINUOUS PARADE OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS
NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEK. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLANDS.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD DOWN THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR TO THE TEXAS BORDER TONIGHT. SNOW IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEW SNOW THAT
ACCUMULATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
DUE TO HEAVY SNOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONGOING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK.

EXPANDED TONIGHTS WINTER STORM WATCH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
LINCOLN...DE BACA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON A MORE NORTHERLY SPREAD OF QPF BULLS EYES...BUT THE
06Z GFS DRAWS THEM FARTHER SOUTH LIKE THE NAM. THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE SACS AND CHAVES COUNTY OUT OF THE WATCH
FOR NOW...BUT HEAVY SNOW COULD IMPACT THOSE AREAS TOO. THE BULK OF
THE SNOW WITH TONIGHTS SYSTEM SHOULD FALL BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT...AS ELUDED IN THE SYNOPSIS...THE ONGOING
TRAIN OF STORM SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR A STREAM
OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NM IN SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BE A WARMER FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS
TO LIFT ABOVE 7000 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE 7500 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
NM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS.

ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CURRENT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING EASTERN NM WITH SNOW...SOME RAIN AT
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN CHAVES AND SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT
COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS PRETTY MUCH MADE IT THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PRESSED UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. IT WILL OOZE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TODAY THEN STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN ABQ.
THERE WILL BE NO WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES TODAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VALUES IN THE WEST AND FAIR TO GOOD IN THE EAST. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EAST
WHICH IS AROUND 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
UNUSUALLY HIGH ACROSS THE EAST TODAY. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE
EXCELLENT.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NM TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST FRIDAY. WITH THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR
POURING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT SNOW WILL EXPAND WEST
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VARIOUS WATCHES...WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. WE WILL ADD A COUPLE MORE ZONES TO THE
WATCH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. VENTILATION WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS
TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN BE UNUSUALLY
HIGH...THIS TIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL AIR MASS. HIGHS ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE
30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES SHAPE
TO OUR WEST. THIS LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME
HIGHER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS
THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WILL PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE
THAT WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME
FOUND NEAR THE SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WESTWARD AS WELL AS CHAMA AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO LIQUID WATER
AMOUNTS. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SNOW LEVELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT PERIOD.

THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF STORMS WILL BE STRONGER AS IT ARRIVES IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF CA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SLOW MOVING STORM WILL TAKE UNTIL
MONDAY TO REACH NM...ALTHOUGH IN A WEAKENED STATE. STILL...WITH LOTS
OF TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO GET PULLED INTO THE STATE...THERE WILL
BE A TON OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
A FEW FEET...NOT INCHES...OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF MONDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER EAST AS WELL LATE THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING THIS AREA THE
CHANCE OF SOME SNOW AS WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS AT LEAST
MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY AS WE GO FORWARD.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
BASED ON PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF FAIR TO POOR
RATES. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE WHILE THE
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER...WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBY WITH AREAS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBY IN SN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE POST DAWN MORN HOURS THU NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 EAST OF TIJERAS. ALSO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
WILL BE OBSCURED...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE AND FROM THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS S TO THE NORTHERN MANZANOS. FARTHER SOUTH FROM THERE MT
OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 09Z OR 10Z. FIRST WINDSHIFT
HAS BACKED UP TO MOST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE STRONGER
BACK DOOR FRONT INTO FAR NE NM AS OF 06Z WILL PUSH ACROSS ALL OF E
NM AND BREAK THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM N TO S BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. INCREASED
GAP WIND EXPECTED AT ABQ AND SAF TAF SITES AS A RESULT BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD BE MODERATE THU AFTN THEN INCREASE WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25
AND 35 MPH AFTER ABOUT 23Z THU. STILL LOOKING AT LVS TO BE TAF
SITE TO EXPERIENCE THE LOWEST CIGS AND VSBY DURING MUCH OF THIS
FCST PERIOD...THOUGH TCC...ROW...SAF ALSO TO A LITTLE LESSER
DEGREE. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT PERHAPS THU AFTN THEN LOWERING AGAIN
SOMEWHAT THU EVE. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY TO
MID AFTN THU...THEN CIGS LOWERING THERE TO MVFR AND EVEN SPOTTY
IFR LEVELS AS SPOTTY RA AND SN DEVELOP.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  42  25  42  31 /  10  30  50  60
DULCE...........................  36  20  35  23 /  20  50  60  80
CUBA............................  38  18  33  23 /  20  70  50  70
GALLUP..........................  46  21  44  30 /  10  30  40  50
EL MORRO........................  42  22  40  28 /  10  50  40  50
GRANTS..........................  43  20  39  26 /  10  60  30  40
QUEMADO.........................  46  24  47  31 /  10  30  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  61  29  60  35 /  10  10   5  10
CHAMA...........................  32  16  31  18 /  30  60  60  80
LOS ALAMOS......................  31  17  28  21 /  40  90  40  60
PECOS...........................  27  12  23  15 /  60 100  50  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  27  12  27  15 /  50  80  50  60
RED RIVER.......................  24   8  22  15 /  60  80  60  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  24   6  24  14 /  70  80  60  60
TAOS............................  29  15  29  19 /  50  70  50  60
MORA............................  24   9  24  14 /  70  90  50  50
ESPANOLA........................  37  20  32  24 /  30  80  40  50
SANTA FE........................  31  17  26  20 /  40 100  40  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  35  17  29  19 /  40  90  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  42  25  36  26 /  10  90  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  45  26  38  27 /  10  80  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  46  25  39  25 /  10  80  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  45  25  38  26 /  10  80  30  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  47  27  41  27 /  10  70  30  10
RIO RANCHO......................  44  25  37  26 /  10  80  30  30
SOCORRO.........................  50  29  49  30 /  10  50  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  36  19  30  21 /  20 100  50  40
TIJERAS.........................  40  21  32  22 /  20 100  50  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  33  15  27  15 /  30 100  50  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  28  12  22  15 /  50 100  50  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  37  21  33  23 /  20  80  30  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  44  23  40  27 /  10  50  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  38  17  32  24 /  30  60  20  10
CAPULIN.........................  20   6  18   9 /  80  70  50  40
RATON...........................  22   8  21  10 /  80  70  50  40
SPRINGER........................  24   9  22  11 /  70  80  50  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  19   8  20  11 /  70  90  50  50
CLAYTON.........................  22   7  18  13 /  50  80  60  30
ROY.............................  22   7  19  11 /  70  80  50  40
CONCHAS.........................  28  14  25  17 /  50  80  50  30
SANTA ROSA......................  30  15  25  18 /  50  80  50  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  27  14  24  16 /  40  80  60  30
CLOVIS..........................  29  12  23  16 /  30  80  50  30
PORTALES........................  31  14  24  18 /  30  80  40  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  31  17  27  20 /  40  80  40  30
ROSWELL.........................  37  22  32  24 /  30  30  30  20
PICACHO.........................  33  18  28  21 /  40  50  30  20
ELK.............................  33  16  28  22 /  40  50  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ536-537-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ516-530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-527>529-531-532.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-517>519-521>524.

&&

$$

44






000
FXUS65 KABQ 261055
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
355 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

...SNOW TO BECOME HEAVY ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT THEN VERY
HEAVY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS THIS
WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...
A CONTINUOUS PARADE OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS
NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEK. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLANDS.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD DOWN THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR TO THE TEXAS BORDER TONIGHT. SNOW IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEW SNOW THAT
ACCUMULATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
DUE TO HEAVY SNOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONGOING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK.

EXPANDED TONIGHTS WINTER STORM WATCH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
LINCOLN...DE BACA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON A MORE NORTHERLY SPREAD OF QPF BULLS EYES...BUT THE
06Z GFS DRAWS THEM FARTHER SOUTH LIKE THE NAM. THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE SACS AND CHAVES COUNTY OUT OF THE WATCH
FOR NOW...BUT HEAVY SNOW COULD IMPACT THOSE AREAS TOO. THE BULK OF
THE SNOW WITH TONIGHTS SYSTEM SHOULD FALL BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT...AS ELUDED IN THE SYNOPSIS...THE ONGOING
TRAIN OF STORM SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR A STREAM
OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NM IN SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BE A WARMER FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS
TO LIFT ABOVE 7000 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE 7500 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
NM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS.

ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CURRENT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING EASTERN NM WITH SNOW...SOME RAIN AT
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN CHAVES AND SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT
COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS PRETTY MUCH MADE IT THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PRESSED UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. IT WILL OOZE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TODAY THEN STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN ABQ.
THERE WILL BE NO WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES TODAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VALUES IN THE WEST AND FAIR TO GOOD IN THE EAST. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EAST
WHICH IS AROUND 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
UNUSUALLY HIGH ACROSS THE EAST TODAY. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE
EXCELLENT.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NM TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST FRIDAY. WITH THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR
POURING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT SNOW WILL EXPAND WEST
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VARIOUS WATCHES...WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. WE WILL ADD A COUPLE MORE ZONES TO THE
WATCH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. VENTILATION WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS
TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN BE UNUSUALLY
HIGH...THIS TIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL AIR MASS. HIGHS ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE
30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES SHAPE
TO OUR WEST. THIS LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME
HIGHER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS
THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WILL PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE
THAT WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME
FOUND NEAR THE SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WESTWARD AS WELL AS CHAMA AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO LIQUID WATER
AMOUNTS. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SNOW LEVELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT PERIOD.

THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF STORMS WILL BE STRONGER AS IT ARRIVES IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF CA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SLOW MOVING STORM WILL TAKE UNTIL
MONDAY TO REACH NM...ALTHOUGH IN A WEAKENED STATE. STILL...WITH LOTS
OF TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO GET PULLED INTO THE STATE...THERE WILL
BE A TON OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
A FEW FEET...NOT INCHES...OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF MONDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER EAST AS WELL LATE THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING THIS AREA THE
CHANCE OF SOME SNOW AS WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS AT LEAST
MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY AS WE GO FORWARD.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
BASED ON PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF FAIR TO POOR
RATES. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE WHILE THE
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER...WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBY WITH AREAS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBY IN SN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE POST DAWN MORN HOURS THU NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 EAST OF TIJERAS. ALSO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
WILL BE OBSCURED...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE AND FROM THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS S TO THE NORTHERN MANZANOS. FARTHER SOUTH FROM THERE MT
OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 09Z OR 10Z. FIRST WINDSHIFT
HAS BACKED UP TO MOST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE STRONGER
BACK DOOR FRONT INTO FAR NE NM AS OF 06Z WILL PUSH ACROSS ALL OF E
NM AND BREAK THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM N TO S BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. INCREASED
GAP WIND EXPECTED AT ABQ AND SAF TAF SITES AS A RESULT BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD BE MODERATE THU AFTN THEN INCREASE WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25
AND 35 MPH AFTER ABOUT 23Z THU. STILL LOOKING AT LVS TO BE TAF
SITE TO EXPERIENCE THE LOWEST CIGS AND VSBY DURING MUCH OF THIS
FCST PERIOD...THOUGH TCC...ROW...SAF ALSO TO A LITTLE LESSER
DEGREE. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT PERHAPS THU AFTN THEN LOWERING AGAIN
SOMEWHAT THU EVE. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY TO
MID AFTN THU...THEN CIGS LOWERING THERE TO MVFR AND EVEN SPOTTY
IFR LEVELS AS SPOTTY RA AND SN DEVELOP.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  42  25  42  31 /  10  30  50  60
DULCE...........................  36  20  35  23 /  20  50  60  80
CUBA............................  38  18  33  23 /  20  70  50  70
GALLUP..........................  46  21  44  30 /  10  30  40  50
EL MORRO........................  42  22  40  28 /  10  50  40  50
GRANTS..........................  43  20  39  26 /  10  60  30  40
QUEMADO.........................  46  24  47  31 /  10  30  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  61  29  60  35 /  10  10   5  10
CHAMA...........................  32  16  31  18 /  30  60  60  80
LOS ALAMOS......................  31  17  28  21 /  40  90  40  60
PECOS...........................  27  12  23  15 /  60 100  50  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  27  12  27  15 /  50  80  50  60
RED RIVER.......................  24   8  22  15 /  60  80  60  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  24   6  24  14 /  70  80  60  60
TAOS............................  29  15  29  19 /  50  70  50  60
MORA............................  24   9  24  14 /  70  90  50  50
ESPANOLA........................  37  20  32  24 /  30  80  40  50
SANTA FE........................  31  17  26  20 /  40 100  40  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  35  17  29  19 /  40  90  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  42  25  36  26 /  10  90  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  45  26  38  27 /  10  80  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  46  25  39  25 /  10  80  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  45  25  38  26 /  10  80  30  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  47  27  41  27 /  10  70  30  10
RIO RANCHO......................  44  25  37  26 /  10  80  30  30
SOCORRO.........................  50  29  49  30 /  10  50  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  36  19  30  21 /  20 100  50  40
TIJERAS.........................  40  21  32  22 /  20 100  50  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  33  15  27  15 /  30 100  50  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  28  12  22  15 /  50 100  50  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  37  21  33  23 /  20  80  30  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  44  23  40  27 /  10  50  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  38  17  32  24 /  30  60  20  10
CAPULIN.........................  20   6  18   9 /  80  70  50  40
RATON...........................  22   8  21  10 /  80  70  50  40
SPRINGER........................  24   9  22  11 /  70  80  50  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  19   8  20  11 /  70  90  50  50
CLAYTON.........................  22   7  18  13 /  50  80  60  30
ROY.............................  22   7  19  11 /  70  80  50  40
CONCHAS.........................  28  14  25  17 /  50  80  50  30
SANTA ROSA......................  30  15  25  18 /  50  80  50  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  27  14  24  16 /  40  80  60  30
CLOVIS..........................  29  12  23  16 /  30  80  50  30
PORTALES........................  31  14  24  18 /  30  80  40  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  31  17  27  20 /  40  80  40  30
ROSWELL.........................  37  22  32  24 /  30  30  30  20
PICACHO.........................  33  18  28  21 /  40  50  30  20
ELK.............................  33  16  28  22 /  40  50  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ536-537-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ516-530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-527>529-531-532.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-517>519-521>524.

&&

$$

44






000
FXUS65 KABQ 261055
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
355 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

...SNOW TO BECOME HEAVY ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT THEN VERY
HEAVY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS THIS
WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...
A CONTINUOUS PARADE OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS
NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEK. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLANDS.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD DOWN THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR TO THE TEXAS BORDER TONIGHT. SNOW IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEW SNOW THAT
ACCUMULATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
DUE TO HEAVY SNOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONGOING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK.

EXPANDED TONIGHTS WINTER STORM WATCH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
LINCOLN...DE BACA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON A MORE NORTHERLY SPREAD OF QPF BULLS EYES...BUT THE
06Z GFS DRAWS THEM FARTHER SOUTH LIKE THE NAM. THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE SACS AND CHAVES COUNTY OUT OF THE WATCH
FOR NOW...BUT HEAVY SNOW COULD IMPACT THOSE AREAS TOO. THE BULK OF
THE SNOW WITH TONIGHTS SYSTEM SHOULD FALL BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT...AS ELUDED IN THE SYNOPSIS...THE ONGOING
TRAIN OF STORM SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR A STREAM
OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NM IN SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BE A WARMER FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS
TO LIFT ABOVE 7000 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE 7500 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
NM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS.

ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CURRENT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING EASTERN NM WITH SNOW...SOME RAIN AT
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN CHAVES AND SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT
COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS PRETTY MUCH MADE IT THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PRESSED UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. IT WILL OOZE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TODAY THEN STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN ABQ.
THERE WILL BE NO WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES TODAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VALUES IN THE WEST AND FAIR TO GOOD IN THE EAST. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EAST
WHICH IS AROUND 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
UNUSUALLY HIGH ACROSS THE EAST TODAY. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE
EXCELLENT.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NM TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST FRIDAY. WITH THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR
POURING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT SNOW WILL EXPAND WEST
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VARIOUS WATCHES...WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. WE WILL ADD A COUPLE MORE ZONES TO THE
WATCH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. VENTILATION WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS
TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN BE UNUSUALLY
HIGH...THIS TIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL AIR MASS. HIGHS ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE
30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES SHAPE
TO OUR WEST. THIS LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME
HIGHER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS
THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WILL PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE
THAT WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME
FOUND NEAR THE SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WESTWARD AS WELL AS CHAMA AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO LIQUID WATER
AMOUNTS. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SNOW LEVELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT PERIOD.

THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF STORMS WILL BE STRONGER AS IT ARRIVES IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF CA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SLOW MOVING STORM WILL TAKE UNTIL
MONDAY TO REACH NM...ALTHOUGH IN A WEAKENED STATE. STILL...WITH LOTS
OF TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO GET PULLED INTO THE STATE...THERE WILL
BE A TON OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
A FEW FEET...NOT INCHES...OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF MONDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER EAST AS WELL LATE THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING THIS AREA THE
CHANCE OF SOME SNOW AS WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS AT LEAST
MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY AS WE GO FORWARD.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
BASED ON PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF FAIR TO POOR
RATES. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE WHILE THE
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER...WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBY WITH AREAS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBY IN SN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE POST DAWN MORN HOURS THU NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 EAST OF TIJERAS. ALSO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
WILL BE OBSCURED...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE AND FROM THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS S TO THE NORTHERN MANZANOS. FARTHER SOUTH FROM THERE MT
OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 09Z OR 10Z. FIRST WINDSHIFT
HAS BACKED UP TO MOST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE STRONGER
BACK DOOR FRONT INTO FAR NE NM AS OF 06Z WILL PUSH ACROSS ALL OF E
NM AND BREAK THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM N TO S BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. INCREASED
GAP WIND EXPECTED AT ABQ AND SAF TAF SITES AS A RESULT BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD BE MODERATE THU AFTN THEN INCREASE WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25
AND 35 MPH AFTER ABOUT 23Z THU. STILL LOOKING AT LVS TO BE TAF
SITE TO EXPERIENCE THE LOWEST CIGS AND VSBY DURING MUCH OF THIS
FCST PERIOD...THOUGH TCC...ROW...SAF ALSO TO A LITTLE LESSER
DEGREE. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT PERHAPS THU AFTN THEN LOWERING AGAIN
SOMEWHAT THU EVE. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY TO
MID AFTN THU...THEN CIGS LOWERING THERE TO MVFR AND EVEN SPOTTY
IFR LEVELS AS SPOTTY RA AND SN DEVELOP.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  42  25  42  31 /  10  30  50  60
DULCE...........................  36  20  35  23 /  20  50  60  80
CUBA............................  38  18  33  23 /  20  70  50  70
GALLUP..........................  46  21  44  30 /  10  30  40  50
EL MORRO........................  42  22  40  28 /  10  50  40  50
GRANTS..........................  43  20  39  26 /  10  60  30  40
QUEMADO.........................  46  24  47  31 /  10  30  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  61  29  60  35 /  10  10   5  10
CHAMA...........................  32  16  31  18 /  30  60  60  80
LOS ALAMOS......................  31  17  28  21 /  40  90  40  60
PECOS...........................  27  12  23  15 /  60 100  50  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  27  12  27  15 /  50  80  50  60
RED RIVER.......................  24   8  22  15 /  60  80  60  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  24   6  24  14 /  70  80  60  60
TAOS............................  29  15  29  19 /  50  70  50  60
MORA............................  24   9  24  14 /  70  90  50  50
ESPANOLA........................  37  20  32  24 /  30  80  40  50
SANTA FE........................  31  17  26  20 /  40 100  40  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  35  17  29  19 /  40  90  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  42  25  36  26 /  10  90  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  45  26  38  27 /  10  80  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  46  25  39  25 /  10  80  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  45  25  38  26 /  10  80  30  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  47  27  41  27 /  10  70  30  10
RIO RANCHO......................  44  25  37  26 /  10  80  30  30
SOCORRO.........................  50  29  49  30 /  10  50  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  36  19  30  21 /  20 100  50  40
TIJERAS.........................  40  21  32  22 /  20 100  50  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  33  15  27  15 /  30 100  50  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  28  12  22  15 /  50 100  50  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  37  21  33  23 /  20  80  30  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  44  23  40  27 /  10  50  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  38  17  32  24 /  30  60  20  10
CAPULIN.........................  20   6  18   9 /  80  70  50  40
RATON...........................  22   8  21  10 /  80  70  50  40
SPRINGER........................  24   9  22  11 /  70  80  50  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  19   8  20  11 /  70  90  50  50
CLAYTON.........................  22   7  18  13 /  50  80  60  30
ROY.............................  22   7  19  11 /  70  80  50  40
CONCHAS.........................  28  14  25  17 /  50  80  50  30
SANTA ROSA......................  30  15  25  18 /  50  80  50  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  27  14  24  16 /  40  80  60  30
CLOVIS..........................  29  12  23  16 /  30  80  50  30
PORTALES........................  31  14  24  18 /  30  80  40  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  31  17  27  20 /  40  80  40  30
ROSWELL.........................  37  22  32  24 /  30  30  30  20
PICACHO.........................  33  18  28  21 /  40  50  30  20
ELK.............................  33  16  28  22 /  40  50  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ536-537-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ516-530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-527>529-531-532.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-517>519-521>524.

&&

$$

44






000
FXUS65 KABQ 261055
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
355 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

...SNOW TO BECOME HEAVY ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT THEN VERY
HEAVY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS THIS
WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...
A CONTINUOUS PARADE OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS
NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEK. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLANDS.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD DOWN THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR TO THE TEXAS BORDER TONIGHT. SNOW IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEW SNOW THAT
ACCUMULATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
DUE TO HEAVY SNOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONGOING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK.

EXPANDED TONIGHTS WINTER STORM WATCH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
LINCOLN...DE BACA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON A MORE NORTHERLY SPREAD OF QPF BULLS EYES...BUT THE
06Z GFS DRAWS THEM FARTHER SOUTH LIKE THE NAM. THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE SACS AND CHAVES COUNTY OUT OF THE WATCH
FOR NOW...BUT HEAVY SNOW COULD IMPACT THOSE AREAS TOO. THE BULK OF
THE SNOW WITH TONIGHTS SYSTEM SHOULD FALL BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT...AS ELUDED IN THE SYNOPSIS...THE ONGOING
TRAIN OF STORM SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR A STREAM
OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NM IN SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BE A WARMER FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS
TO LIFT ABOVE 7000 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE 7500 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
NM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS.

ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CURRENT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING EASTERN NM WITH SNOW...SOME RAIN AT
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN CHAVES AND SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT
COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS PRETTY MUCH MADE IT THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PRESSED UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. IT WILL OOZE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TODAY THEN STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN ABQ.
THERE WILL BE NO WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES TODAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VALUES IN THE WEST AND FAIR TO GOOD IN THE EAST. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EAST
WHICH IS AROUND 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
UNUSUALLY HIGH ACROSS THE EAST TODAY. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE
EXCELLENT.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NM TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST FRIDAY. WITH THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR
POURING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT SNOW WILL EXPAND WEST
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VARIOUS WATCHES...WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. WE WILL ADD A COUPLE MORE ZONES TO THE
WATCH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. VENTILATION WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS
TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN BE UNUSUALLY
HIGH...THIS TIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL AIR MASS. HIGHS ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE
30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES SHAPE
TO OUR WEST. THIS LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME
HIGHER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS
THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WILL PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE
THAT WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME
FOUND NEAR THE SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WESTWARD AS WELL AS CHAMA AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO LIQUID WATER
AMOUNTS. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SNOW LEVELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT PERIOD.

THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF STORMS WILL BE STRONGER AS IT ARRIVES IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF CA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SLOW MOVING STORM WILL TAKE UNTIL
MONDAY TO REACH NM...ALTHOUGH IN A WEAKENED STATE. STILL...WITH LOTS
OF TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO GET PULLED INTO THE STATE...THERE WILL
BE A TON OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
A FEW FEET...NOT INCHES...OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF MONDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER EAST AS WELL LATE THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING THIS AREA THE
CHANCE OF SOME SNOW AS WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS AT LEAST
MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY AS WE GO FORWARD.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
BASED ON PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF FAIR TO POOR
RATES. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE WHILE THE
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER...WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBY WITH AREAS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBY IN SN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE POST DAWN MORN HOURS THU NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 EAST OF TIJERAS. ALSO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
WILL BE OBSCURED...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE AND FROM THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS S TO THE NORTHERN MANZANOS. FARTHER SOUTH FROM THERE MT
OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 09Z OR 10Z. FIRST WINDSHIFT
HAS BACKED UP TO MOST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE STRONGER
BACK DOOR FRONT INTO FAR NE NM AS OF 06Z WILL PUSH ACROSS ALL OF E
NM AND BREAK THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM N TO S BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. INCREASED
GAP WIND EXPECTED AT ABQ AND SAF TAF SITES AS A RESULT BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD BE MODERATE THU AFTN THEN INCREASE WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25
AND 35 MPH AFTER ABOUT 23Z THU. STILL LOOKING AT LVS TO BE TAF
SITE TO EXPERIENCE THE LOWEST CIGS AND VSBY DURING MUCH OF THIS
FCST PERIOD...THOUGH TCC...ROW...SAF ALSO TO A LITTLE LESSER
DEGREE. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT PERHAPS THU AFTN THEN LOWERING AGAIN
SOMEWHAT THU EVE. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY TO
MID AFTN THU...THEN CIGS LOWERING THERE TO MVFR AND EVEN SPOTTY
IFR LEVELS AS SPOTTY RA AND SN DEVELOP.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  42  25  42  31 /  10  30  50  60
DULCE...........................  36  20  35  23 /  20  50  60  80
CUBA............................  38  18  33  23 /  20  70  50  70
GALLUP..........................  46  21  44  30 /  10  30  40  50
EL MORRO........................  42  22  40  28 /  10  50  40  50
GRANTS..........................  43  20  39  26 /  10  60  30  40
QUEMADO.........................  46  24  47  31 /  10  30  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  61  29  60  35 /  10  10   5  10
CHAMA...........................  32  16  31  18 /  30  60  60  80
LOS ALAMOS......................  31  17  28  21 /  40  90  40  60
PECOS...........................  27  12  23  15 /  60 100  50  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  27  12  27  15 /  50  80  50  60
RED RIVER.......................  24   8  22  15 /  60  80  60  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  24   6  24  14 /  70  80  60  60
TAOS............................  29  15  29  19 /  50  70  50  60
MORA............................  24   9  24  14 /  70  90  50  50
ESPANOLA........................  37  20  32  24 /  30  80  40  50
SANTA FE........................  31  17  26  20 /  40 100  40  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  35  17  29  19 /  40  90  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  42  25  36  26 /  10  90  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  45  26  38  27 /  10  80  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  46  25  39  25 /  10  80  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  45  25  38  26 /  10  80  30  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  47  27  41  27 /  10  70  30  10
RIO RANCHO......................  44  25  37  26 /  10  80  30  30
SOCORRO.........................  50  29  49  30 /  10  50  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  36  19  30  21 /  20 100  50  40
TIJERAS.........................  40  21  32  22 /  20 100  50  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  33  15  27  15 /  30 100  50  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  28  12  22  15 /  50 100  50  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  37  21  33  23 /  20  80  30  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  44  23  40  27 /  10  50  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  38  17  32  24 /  30  60  20  10
CAPULIN.........................  20   6  18   9 /  80  70  50  40
RATON...........................  22   8  21  10 /  80  70  50  40
SPRINGER........................  24   9  22  11 /  70  80  50  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  19   8  20  11 /  70  90  50  50
CLAYTON.........................  22   7  18  13 /  50  80  60  30
ROY.............................  22   7  19  11 /  70  80  50  40
CONCHAS.........................  28  14  25  17 /  50  80  50  30
SANTA ROSA......................  30  15  25  18 /  50  80  50  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  27  14  24  16 /  40  80  60  30
CLOVIS..........................  29  12  23  16 /  30  80  50  30
PORTALES........................  31  14  24  18 /  30  80  40  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  31  17  27  20 /  40  80  40  30
ROSWELL.........................  37  22  32  24 /  30  30  30  20
PICACHO.........................  33  18  28  21 /  40  50  30  20
ELK.............................  33  16  28  22 /  40  50  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ536-537-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ516-530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-527>529-531-532.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-517>519-521>524.

&&

$$

44






000
FXUS65 KABQ 261055
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
355 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

...SNOW TO BECOME HEAVY ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT THEN VERY
HEAVY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS THIS
WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...
A CONTINUOUS PARADE OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS
NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEK. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLANDS.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD DOWN THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR TO THE TEXAS BORDER TONIGHT. SNOW IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEW SNOW THAT
ACCUMULATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
DUE TO HEAVY SNOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONGOING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK.

EXPANDED TONIGHTS WINTER STORM WATCH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
LINCOLN...DE BACA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON A MORE NORTHERLY SPREAD OF QPF BULLS EYES...BUT THE
06Z GFS DRAWS THEM FARTHER SOUTH LIKE THE NAM. THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE SACS AND CHAVES COUNTY OUT OF THE WATCH
FOR NOW...BUT HEAVY SNOW COULD IMPACT THOSE AREAS TOO. THE BULK OF
THE SNOW WITH TONIGHTS SYSTEM SHOULD FALL BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT...AS ELUDED IN THE SYNOPSIS...THE ONGOING
TRAIN OF STORM SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR A STREAM
OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NM IN SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BE A WARMER FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS
TO LIFT ABOVE 7000 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE 7500 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
NM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS.

ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CURRENT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING EASTERN NM WITH SNOW...SOME RAIN AT
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN CHAVES AND SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT
COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS PRETTY MUCH MADE IT THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PRESSED UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. IT WILL OOZE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TODAY THEN STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN ABQ.
THERE WILL BE NO WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES TODAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VALUES IN THE WEST AND FAIR TO GOOD IN THE EAST. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EAST
WHICH IS AROUND 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
UNUSUALLY HIGH ACROSS THE EAST TODAY. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE
EXCELLENT.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NM TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST FRIDAY. WITH THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR
POURING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT SNOW WILL EXPAND WEST
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VARIOUS WATCHES...WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. WE WILL ADD A COUPLE MORE ZONES TO THE
WATCH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. VENTILATION WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS
TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN BE UNUSUALLY
HIGH...THIS TIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL AIR MASS. HIGHS ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE
30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES SHAPE
TO OUR WEST. THIS LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME
HIGHER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS
THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WILL PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE
THAT WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME
FOUND NEAR THE SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WESTWARD AS WELL AS CHAMA AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO LIQUID WATER
AMOUNTS. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SNOW LEVELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT PERIOD.

THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF STORMS WILL BE STRONGER AS IT ARRIVES IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF CA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SLOW MOVING STORM WILL TAKE UNTIL
MONDAY TO REACH NM...ALTHOUGH IN A WEAKENED STATE. STILL...WITH LOTS
OF TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO GET PULLED INTO THE STATE...THERE WILL
BE A TON OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
A FEW FEET...NOT INCHES...OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF MONDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER EAST AS WELL LATE THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING THIS AREA THE
CHANCE OF SOME SNOW AS WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS AT LEAST
MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY AS WE GO FORWARD.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
BASED ON PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF FAIR TO POOR
RATES. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE WHILE THE
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER...WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBY WITH AREAS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBY IN SN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE POST DAWN MORN HOURS THU NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 EAST OF TIJERAS. ALSO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
WILL BE OBSCURED...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE AND FROM THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS S TO THE NORTHERN MANZANOS. FARTHER SOUTH FROM THERE MT
OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 09Z OR 10Z. FIRST WINDSHIFT
HAS BACKED UP TO MOST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE STRONGER
BACK DOOR FRONT INTO FAR NE NM AS OF 06Z WILL PUSH ACROSS ALL OF E
NM AND BREAK THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM N TO S BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. INCREASED
GAP WIND EXPECTED AT ABQ AND SAF TAF SITES AS A RESULT BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD BE MODERATE THU AFTN THEN INCREASE WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25
AND 35 MPH AFTER ABOUT 23Z THU. STILL LOOKING AT LVS TO BE TAF
SITE TO EXPERIENCE THE LOWEST CIGS AND VSBY DURING MUCH OF THIS
FCST PERIOD...THOUGH TCC...ROW...SAF ALSO TO A LITTLE LESSER
DEGREE. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT PERHAPS THU AFTN THEN LOWERING AGAIN
SOMEWHAT THU EVE. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY TO
MID AFTN THU...THEN CIGS LOWERING THERE TO MVFR AND EVEN SPOTTY
IFR LEVELS AS SPOTTY RA AND SN DEVELOP.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  42  25  42  31 /  10  30  50  60
DULCE...........................  36  20  35  23 /  20  50  60  80
CUBA............................  38  18  33  23 /  20  70  50  70
GALLUP..........................  46  21  44  30 /  10  30  40  50
EL MORRO........................  42  22  40  28 /  10  50  40  50
GRANTS..........................  43  20  39  26 /  10  60  30  40
QUEMADO.........................  46  24  47  31 /  10  30  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  61  29  60  35 /  10  10   5  10
CHAMA...........................  32  16  31  18 /  30  60  60  80
LOS ALAMOS......................  31  17  28  21 /  40  90  40  60
PECOS...........................  27  12  23  15 /  60 100  50  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  27  12  27  15 /  50  80  50  60
RED RIVER.......................  24   8  22  15 /  60  80  60  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  24   6  24  14 /  70  80  60  60
TAOS............................  29  15  29  19 /  50  70  50  60
MORA............................  24   9  24  14 /  70  90  50  50
ESPANOLA........................  37  20  32  24 /  30  80  40  50
SANTA FE........................  31  17  26  20 /  40 100  40  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  35  17  29  19 /  40  90  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  42  25  36  26 /  10  90  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  45  26  38  27 /  10  80  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  46  25  39  25 /  10  80  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  45  25  38  26 /  10  80  30  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  47  27  41  27 /  10  70  30  10
RIO RANCHO......................  44  25  37  26 /  10  80  30  30
SOCORRO.........................  50  29  49  30 /  10  50  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  36  19  30  21 /  20 100  50  40
TIJERAS.........................  40  21  32  22 /  20 100  50  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  33  15  27  15 /  30 100  50  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  28  12  22  15 /  50 100  50  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  37  21  33  23 /  20  80  30  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  44  23  40  27 /  10  50  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  38  17  32  24 /  30  60  20  10
CAPULIN.........................  20   6  18   9 /  80  70  50  40
RATON...........................  22   8  21  10 /  80  70  50  40
SPRINGER........................  24   9  22  11 /  70  80  50  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  19   8  20  11 /  70  90  50  50
CLAYTON.........................  22   7  18  13 /  50  80  60  30
ROY.............................  22   7  19  11 /  70  80  50  40
CONCHAS.........................  28  14  25  17 /  50  80  50  30
SANTA ROSA......................  30  15  25  18 /  50  80  50  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  27  14  24  16 /  40  80  60  30
CLOVIS..........................  29  12  23  16 /  30  80  50  30
PORTALES........................  31  14  24  18 /  30  80  40  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  31  17  27  20 /  40  80  40  30
ROSWELL.........................  37  22  32  24 /  30  30  30  20
PICACHO.........................  33  18  28  21 /  40  50  30  20
ELK.............................  33  16  28  22 /  40  50  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ536-537-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ516-530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-527>529-531-532.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-517>519-521>524.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS65 KABQ 261055
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
355 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

...SNOW TO BECOME HEAVY ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT THEN VERY
HEAVY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS THIS
WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...
A CONTINUOUS PARADE OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS
NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEK. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLANDS.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD DOWN THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR TO THE TEXAS BORDER TONIGHT. SNOW IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEW SNOW THAT
ACCUMULATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
DUE TO HEAVY SNOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONGOING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK.

EXPANDED TONIGHTS WINTER STORM WATCH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
LINCOLN...DE BACA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON A MORE NORTHERLY SPREAD OF QPF BULLS EYES...BUT THE
06Z GFS DRAWS THEM FARTHER SOUTH LIKE THE NAM. THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE SACS AND CHAVES COUNTY OUT OF THE WATCH
FOR NOW...BUT HEAVY SNOW COULD IMPACT THOSE AREAS TOO. THE BULK OF
THE SNOW WITH TONIGHTS SYSTEM SHOULD FALL BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT...AS ELUDED IN THE SYNOPSIS...THE ONGOING
TRAIN OF STORM SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR A STREAM
OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NM IN SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BE A WARMER FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS
TO LIFT ABOVE 7000 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE 7500 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
NM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS.

ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CURRENT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING EASTERN NM WITH SNOW...SOME RAIN AT
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN CHAVES AND SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT
COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS PRETTY MUCH MADE IT THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PRESSED UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. IT WILL OOZE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TODAY THEN STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN ABQ.
THERE WILL BE NO WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES TODAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VALUES IN THE WEST AND FAIR TO GOOD IN THE EAST. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EAST
WHICH IS AROUND 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
UNUSUALLY HIGH ACROSS THE EAST TODAY. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE
EXCELLENT.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NM TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST FRIDAY. WITH THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR
POURING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT SNOW WILL EXPAND WEST
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VARIOUS WATCHES...WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. WE WILL ADD A COUPLE MORE ZONES TO THE
WATCH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. VENTILATION WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS
TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN BE UNUSUALLY
HIGH...THIS TIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL AIR MASS. HIGHS ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE
30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES SHAPE
TO OUR WEST. THIS LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME
HIGHER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS
THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WILL PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE
THAT WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME
FOUND NEAR THE SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WESTWARD AS WELL AS CHAMA AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO LIQUID WATER
AMOUNTS. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SNOW LEVELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT PERIOD.

THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF STORMS WILL BE STRONGER AS IT ARRIVES IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF CA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SLOW MOVING STORM WILL TAKE UNTIL
MONDAY TO REACH NM...ALTHOUGH IN A WEAKENED STATE. STILL...WITH LOTS
OF TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO GET PULLED INTO THE STATE...THERE WILL
BE A TON OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
A FEW FEET...NOT INCHES...OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF MONDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER EAST AS WELL LATE THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING THIS AREA THE
CHANCE OF SOME SNOW AS WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS AT LEAST
MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY AS WE GO FORWARD.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
BASED ON PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF FAIR TO POOR
RATES. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE WHILE THE
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER...WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBY WITH AREAS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBY IN SN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE POST DAWN MORN HOURS THU NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 EAST OF TIJERAS. ALSO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
WILL BE OBSCURED...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE AND FROM THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS S TO THE NORTHERN MANZANOS. FARTHER SOUTH FROM THERE MT
OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 09Z OR 10Z. FIRST WINDSHIFT
HAS BACKED UP TO MOST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE STRONGER
BACK DOOR FRONT INTO FAR NE NM AS OF 06Z WILL PUSH ACROSS ALL OF E
NM AND BREAK THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM N TO S BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. INCREASED
GAP WIND EXPECTED AT ABQ AND SAF TAF SITES AS A RESULT BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD BE MODERATE THU AFTN THEN INCREASE WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25
AND 35 MPH AFTER ABOUT 23Z THU. STILL LOOKING AT LVS TO BE TAF
SITE TO EXPERIENCE THE LOWEST CIGS AND VSBY DURING MUCH OF THIS
FCST PERIOD...THOUGH TCC...ROW...SAF ALSO TO A LITTLE LESSER
DEGREE. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT PERHAPS THU AFTN THEN LOWERING AGAIN
SOMEWHAT THU EVE. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY TO
MID AFTN THU...THEN CIGS LOWERING THERE TO MVFR AND EVEN SPOTTY
IFR LEVELS AS SPOTTY RA AND SN DEVELOP.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  42  25  42  31 /  10  30  50  60
DULCE...........................  36  20  35  23 /  20  50  60  80
CUBA............................  38  18  33  23 /  20  70  50  70
GALLUP..........................  46  21  44  30 /  10  30  40  50
EL MORRO........................  42  22  40  28 /  10  50  40  50
GRANTS..........................  43  20  39  26 /  10  60  30  40
QUEMADO.........................  46  24  47  31 /  10  30  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  61  29  60  35 /  10  10   5  10
CHAMA...........................  32  16  31  18 /  30  60  60  80
LOS ALAMOS......................  31  17  28  21 /  40  90  40  60
PECOS...........................  27  12  23  15 /  60 100  50  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  27  12  27  15 /  50  80  50  60
RED RIVER.......................  24   8  22  15 /  60  80  60  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  24   6  24  14 /  70  80  60  60
TAOS............................  29  15  29  19 /  50  70  50  60
MORA............................  24   9  24  14 /  70  90  50  50
ESPANOLA........................  37  20  32  24 /  30  80  40  50
SANTA FE........................  31  17  26  20 /  40 100  40  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  35  17  29  19 /  40  90  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  42  25  36  26 /  10  90  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  45  26  38  27 /  10  80  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  46  25  39  25 /  10  80  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  45  25  38  26 /  10  80  30  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  47  27  41  27 /  10  70  30  10
RIO RANCHO......................  44  25  37  26 /  10  80  30  30
SOCORRO.........................  50  29  49  30 /  10  50  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  36  19  30  21 /  20 100  50  40
TIJERAS.........................  40  21  32  22 /  20 100  50  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  33  15  27  15 /  30 100  50  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  28  12  22  15 /  50 100  50  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  37  21  33  23 /  20  80  30  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  44  23  40  27 /  10  50  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  38  17  32  24 /  30  60  20  10
CAPULIN.........................  20   6  18   9 /  80  70  50  40
RATON...........................  22   8  21  10 /  80  70  50  40
SPRINGER........................  24   9  22  11 /  70  80  50  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  19   8  20  11 /  70  90  50  50
CLAYTON.........................  22   7  18  13 /  50  80  60  30
ROY.............................  22   7  19  11 /  70  80  50  40
CONCHAS.........................  28  14  25  17 /  50  80  50  30
SANTA ROSA......................  30  15  25  18 /  50  80  50  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  27  14  24  16 /  40  80  60  30
CLOVIS..........................  29  12  23  16 /  30  80  50  30
PORTALES........................  31  14  24  18 /  30  80  40  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  31  17  27  20 /  40  80  40  30
ROSWELL.........................  37  22  32  24 /  30  30  30  20
PICACHO.........................  33  18  28  21 /  40  50  30  20
ELK.............................  33  16  28  22 /  40  50  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ536-537-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ516-530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-527>529-531-532.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-517>519-521>524.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS65 KABQ 261055
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
355 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

...SNOW TO BECOME HEAVY ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT THEN VERY
HEAVY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS THIS
WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...
A CONTINUOUS PARADE OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS
NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEK. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLANDS.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD DOWN THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR TO THE TEXAS BORDER TONIGHT. SNOW IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEW SNOW THAT
ACCUMULATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
DUE TO HEAVY SNOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONGOING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK.

EXPANDED TONIGHTS WINTER STORM WATCH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
LINCOLN...DE BACA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON A MORE NORTHERLY SPREAD OF QPF BULLS EYES...BUT THE
06Z GFS DRAWS THEM FARTHER SOUTH LIKE THE NAM. THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE SACS AND CHAVES COUNTY OUT OF THE WATCH
FOR NOW...BUT HEAVY SNOW COULD IMPACT THOSE AREAS TOO. THE BULK OF
THE SNOW WITH TONIGHTS SYSTEM SHOULD FALL BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT...AS ELUDED IN THE SYNOPSIS...THE ONGOING
TRAIN OF STORM SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR A STREAM
OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NM IN SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BE A WARMER FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS
TO LIFT ABOVE 7000 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE 7500 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
NM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS.

ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CURRENT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING EASTERN NM WITH SNOW...SOME RAIN AT
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN CHAVES AND SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT
COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS PRETTY MUCH MADE IT THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PRESSED UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. IT WILL OOZE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TODAY THEN STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN ABQ.
THERE WILL BE NO WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES TODAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VALUES IN THE WEST AND FAIR TO GOOD IN THE EAST. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EAST
WHICH IS AROUND 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
UNUSUALLY HIGH ACROSS THE EAST TODAY. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE
EXCELLENT.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NM TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST FRIDAY. WITH THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR
POURING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT SNOW WILL EXPAND WEST
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VARIOUS WATCHES...WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. WE WILL ADD A COUPLE MORE ZONES TO THE
WATCH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. VENTILATION WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS
TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN BE UNUSUALLY
HIGH...THIS TIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL AIR MASS. HIGHS ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE
30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES SHAPE
TO OUR WEST. THIS LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME
HIGHER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS
THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WILL PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE
THAT WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME
FOUND NEAR THE SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WESTWARD AS WELL AS CHAMA AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO LIQUID WATER
AMOUNTS. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SNOW LEVELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT PERIOD.

THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF STORMS WILL BE STRONGER AS IT ARRIVES IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF CA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SLOW MOVING STORM WILL TAKE UNTIL
MONDAY TO REACH NM...ALTHOUGH IN A WEAKENED STATE. STILL...WITH LOTS
OF TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO GET PULLED INTO THE STATE...THERE WILL
BE A TON OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
A FEW FEET...NOT INCHES...OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF MONDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER EAST AS WELL LATE THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING THIS AREA THE
CHANCE OF SOME SNOW AS WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS AT LEAST
MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY AS WE GO FORWARD.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
BASED ON PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF FAIR TO POOR
RATES. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE WHILE THE
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER...WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBY WITH AREAS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBY IN SN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE POST DAWN MORN HOURS THU NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 EAST OF TIJERAS. ALSO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
WILL BE OBSCURED...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE AND FROM THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS S TO THE NORTHERN MANZANOS. FARTHER SOUTH FROM THERE MT
OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 09Z OR 10Z. FIRST WINDSHIFT
HAS BACKED UP TO MOST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE STRONGER
BACK DOOR FRONT INTO FAR NE NM AS OF 06Z WILL PUSH ACROSS ALL OF E
NM AND BREAK THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM N TO S BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. INCREASED
GAP WIND EXPECTED AT ABQ AND SAF TAF SITES AS A RESULT BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD BE MODERATE THU AFTN THEN INCREASE WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25
AND 35 MPH AFTER ABOUT 23Z THU. STILL LOOKING AT LVS TO BE TAF
SITE TO EXPERIENCE THE LOWEST CIGS AND VSBY DURING MUCH OF THIS
FCST PERIOD...THOUGH TCC...ROW...SAF ALSO TO A LITTLE LESSER
DEGREE. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT PERHAPS THU AFTN THEN LOWERING AGAIN
SOMEWHAT THU EVE. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY TO
MID AFTN THU...THEN CIGS LOWERING THERE TO MVFR AND EVEN SPOTTY
IFR LEVELS AS SPOTTY RA AND SN DEVELOP.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  42  25  42  31 /  10  30  50  60
DULCE...........................  36  20  35  23 /  20  50  60  80
CUBA............................  38  18  33  23 /  20  70  50  70
GALLUP..........................  46  21  44  30 /  10  30  40  50
EL MORRO........................  42  22  40  28 /  10  50  40  50
GRANTS..........................  43  20  39  26 /  10  60  30  40
QUEMADO.........................  46  24  47  31 /  10  30  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  61  29  60  35 /  10  10   5  10
CHAMA...........................  32  16  31  18 /  30  60  60  80
LOS ALAMOS......................  31  17  28  21 /  40  90  40  60
PECOS...........................  27  12  23  15 /  60 100  50  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  27  12  27  15 /  50  80  50  60
RED RIVER.......................  24   8  22  15 /  60  80  60  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  24   6  24  14 /  70  80  60  60
TAOS............................  29  15  29  19 /  50  70  50  60
MORA............................  24   9  24  14 /  70  90  50  50
ESPANOLA........................  37  20  32  24 /  30  80  40  50
SANTA FE........................  31  17  26  20 /  40 100  40  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  35  17  29  19 /  40  90  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  42  25  36  26 /  10  90  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  45  26  38  27 /  10  80  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  46  25  39  25 /  10  80  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  45  25  38  26 /  10  80  30  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  47  27  41  27 /  10  70  30  10
RIO RANCHO......................  44  25  37  26 /  10  80  30  30
SOCORRO.........................  50  29  49  30 /  10  50  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  36  19  30  21 /  20 100  50  40
TIJERAS.........................  40  21  32  22 /  20 100  50  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  33  15  27  15 /  30 100  50  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  28  12  22  15 /  50 100  50  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  37  21  33  23 /  20  80  30  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  44  23  40  27 /  10  50  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  38  17  32  24 /  30  60  20  10
CAPULIN.........................  20   6  18   9 /  80  70  50  40
RATON...........................  22   8  21  10 /  80  70  50  40
SPRINGER........................  24   9  22  11 /  70  80  50  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  19   8  20  11 /  70  90  50  50
CLAYTON.........................  22   7  18  13 /  50  80  60  30
ROY.............................  22   7  19  11 /  70  80  50  40
CONCHAS.........................  28  14  25  17 /  50  80  50  30
SANTA ROSA......................  30  15  25  18 /  50  80  50  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  27  14  24  16 /  40  80  60  30
CLOVIS..........................  29  12  23  16 /  30  80  50  30
PORTALES........................  31  14  24  18 /  30  80  40  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  31  17  27  20 /  40  80  40  30
ROSWELL.........................  37  22  32  24 /  30  30  30  20
PICACHO.........................  33  18  28  21 /  40  50  30  20
ELK.............................  33  16  28  22 /  40  50  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ536-537-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ516-530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-527>529-531-532.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-517>519-521>524.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS65 KABQ 261055
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
355 AM MST THU FEB 26 2015

...SNOW TO BECOME HEAVY ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS TONIGHT THEN VERY
HEAVY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHWEST HIGHLANDS THIS
WEEKEND...

.SYNOPSIS...
A CONTINUOUS PARADE OF DISTURBANCES WILL CONTINUE TO MARCH ACROSS
NEW MEXICO FROM THE NORTHWEST THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE COMING
WEEK. SNOW SHOULD DECREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND EASTERN PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. THEN A
STRONG DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS TONIGHT WITH PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOW
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLANDS.
SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD ALSO SPREAD EASTWARD DOWN THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR TO THE TEXAS BORDER TONIGHT. SNOW IS
FORECAST TO DECREASE ACROSS EASTERN AREAS BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT IT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND
NORTHWEST HIGH TERRAIN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEW SNOW THAT
ACCUMULATES ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE MEASURED IN FEET...WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRUCTURAL DAMAGE IN THE MOUNTAINS NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER
DUE TO HEAVY SNOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE ONGOING WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES LOOK ON TRACK.

EXPANDED TONIGHTS WINTER STORM WATCH SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
LINCOLN...DE BACA AND ROOSEVELT COUNTIES. GFS AND ECMWF WERE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT ON A MORE NORTHERLY SPREAD OF QPF BULLS EYES...BUT THE
06Z GFS DRAWS THEM FARTHER SOUTH LIKE THE NAM. THERE IS ENOUGH
UNCERTAINTY TO KEEP THE SACS AND CHAVES COUNTY OUT OF THE WATCH
FOR NOW...BUT HEAVY SNOW COULD IMPACT THOSE AREAS TOO. THE BULK OF
THE SNOW WITH TONIGHTS SYSTEM SHOULD FALL BEFORE
SUNRISE WITH LIGHTER AMOUNTS LINGERING INTO THE MORNING HOURS
ACROSS THE PLAINS. BUT...AS ELUDED IN THE SYNOPSIS...THE ONGOING
TRAIN OF STORM SYSTEMS SHOULD KEEP SNOW GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

A DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE GREAT BASIN THIS WEEKEND WITH FAVORABLE DYNAMICS FOR A STREAM
OF MOISTURE TO PERSIST FROM WEST CENTRAL TO NORTH CENTRAL NM IN SW
FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL BE A WARMER FLOW THAT WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS
TO LIFT ABOVE 7000 FEET ACROSS MUCH OF THIS AREA BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON...AND POSSIBLY ABOVE 7500 FEET BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THEN THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN INTO A TROUGH AND SHIFT EASTWARD OVER
NM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...LOWERING SNOW LEVELS.

ANOTHER DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD
ACROSS THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN STATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY KEEPING
THE LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE FORECAST ACROSS
NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS.

NOT SURPRISINGLY...BELOW NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED FOR THE
NEXT 7 DAYS.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

CURRENT STORM SYSTEM IMPACTING EASTERN NM WITH SNOW...SOME RAIN AT
THE ONSET OF THE PRECIPITATION IN CHAVES AND SOUTHERN ROOSEVELT
COUNTIES. THE SNOW WILL DIMINISH BY AFTERNOON. THE BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM HAS PRETTY MUCH MADE IT THROUGH
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND PRESSED UP AGAINST THE EAST SIDE OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. IT WILL OOZE INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY
TODAY THEN STRENGTHEN QUICKLY THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY IN ABQ.
THERE WILL BE NO WIDESPREAD POOR VENT RATES TODAY...WITH GOOD TO
EXCELLENT VALUES IN THE WEST AND FAIR TO GOOD IN THE EAST. HIGHS
TODAY WILL BE 20 TO 30 DEGREES BELOW YESTERDAY ACROSS THE EAST
WHICH IS AROUND 30 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE
UNUSUALLY HIGH ACROSS THE EAST TODAY. RH RECOVERIES TONIGHT WILL BE
EXCELLENT.

THE NEXT UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
NM TONIGHT AND MOVE EAST FRIDAY. WITH THE COOLER AND MORE MOIST AIR
POURING INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TONIGHT SNOW WILL EXPAND WEST
WITH WIDESPREAD SNOW TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. VARIOUS WATCHES...WARNINGS
AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT. WE WILL ADD A COUPLE MORE ZONES TO THE
WATCH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. VENTILATION WILL LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS
TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL AGAIN BE UNUSUALLY
HIGH...THIS TIME ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA WITH THE MUCH COOLER THAN
NORMAL AIR MASS. HIGHS ACROSS THE EAST FRIDAY WILL BE AN IMPRESSIVE
30 TO 40 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

THE FOCUS FOR PRECIPITATION WILL SHIFT TO THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL
AREAS DURING THE WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES SHAPE
TO OUR WEST. THIS LOW WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME
HIGHER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS
THE WARMER AND MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC
LIFT ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WILL PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE
THAT WILL FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND
PLAINS SHOULD BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME
FOUND NEAR THE SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH
ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN
BELOW NORMAL HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WESTWARD AS WELL AS CHAMA AND THE SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY IN REGARDS TO LIQUID WATER
AMOUNTS. THE TYPE OF PRECIPITATION WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION AND WE
SHOULD BE ABLE TO NAIL DOWN SNOW LEVELS AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE
EVENT PERIOD.

THE NEXT IN THIS SERIES OF STORMS WILL BE STRONGER AS IT ARRIVES IN
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST FRIDAY AND DEVELOPS A CLOSED LOW ALONG OR JUST
OFFSHORE OF CA THIS WEEKEND. THIS SLOW MOVING STORM WILL TAKE UNTIL
MONDAY TO REACH NM...ALTHOUGH IN A WEAKENED STATE. STILL...WITH LOTS
OF TIME FOR DEEP MOISTURE TO GET PULLED INTO THE STATE...THERE WILL
BE A TON OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.
A FEW FEET...NOT INCHES...OF SNOW IS LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHERN SAN
JUAN MOUNTAINS BY THE END OF MONDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ENTER EAST AS WELL LATE THIS WEEKEND PROVIDING THIS AREA THE
CHANCE OF SOME SNOW AS WELL. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM IS AT LEAST
MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY AS WE GO FORWARD.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD THIS WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK
BASED ON PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EAST ON SATURDAY WITH LOTS OF FAIR TO POOR
RATES. HUMIDITY VALUES WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE WHILE THE
TEMPERATURES...ALTHOUGH HIGHER...WILL REMAIN MOSTLY BELOW NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBY WITH AREAS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBY IN SN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE POST DAWN MORN HOURS THU NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 EAST OF TIJERAS. ALSO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
WILL BE OBSCURED...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE AND FROM THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS S TO THE NORTHERN MANZANOS. FARTHER SOUTH FROM THERE MT
OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 09Z OR 10Z. FIRST WINDSHIFT
HAS BACKED UP TO MOST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE STRONGER
BACK DOOR FRONT INTO FAR NE NM AS OF 06Z WILL PUSH ACROSS ALL OF E
NM AND BREAK THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM N TO S BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. INCREASED
GAP WIND EXPECTED AT ABQ AND SAF TAF SITES AS A RESULT BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD BE MODERATE THU AFTN THEN INCREASE WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25
AND 35 MPH AFTER ABOUT 23Z THU. STILL LOOKING AT LVS TO BE TAF
SITE TO EXPERIENCE THE LOWEST CIGS AND VSBY DURING MUCH OF THIS
FCST PERIOD...THOUGH TCC...ROW...SAF ALSO TO A LITTLE LESSER
DEGREE. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT PERHAPS THU AFTN THEN LOWERING AGAIN
SOMEWHAT THU EVE. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY TO
MID AFTN THU...THEN CIGS LOWERING THERE TO MVFR AND EVEN SPOTTY
IFR LEVELS AS SPOTTY RA AND SN DEVELOP.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  42  25  42  31 /  10  30  50  60
DULCE...........................  36  20  35  23 /  20  50  60  80
CUBA............................  38  18  33  23 /  20  70  50  70
GALLUP..........................  46  21  44  30 /  10  30  40  50
EL MORRO........................  42  22  40  28 /  10  50  40  50
GRANTS..........................  43  20  39  26 /  10  60  30  40
QUEMADO.........................  46  24  47  31 /  10  30  10  20
GLENWOOD........................  61  29  60  35 /  10  10   5  10
CHAMA...........................  32  16  31  18 /  30  60  60  80
LOS ALAMOS......................  31  17  28  21 /  40  90  40  60
PECOS...........................  27  12  23  15 /  60 100  50  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  27  12  27  15 /  50  80  50  60
RED RIVER.......................  24   8  22  15 /  60  80  60  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  24   6  24  14 /  70  80  60  60
TAOS............................  29  15  29  19 /  50  70  50  60
MORA............................  24   9  24  14 /  70  90  50  50
ESPANOLA........................  37  20  32  24 /  30  80  40  50
SANTA FE........................  31  17  26  20 /  40 100  40  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  35  17  29  19 /  40  90  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  42  25  36  26 /  10  90  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  45  26  38  27 /  10  80  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  46  25  39  25 /  10  80  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  45  25  38  26 /  10  80  30  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  47  27  41  27 /  10  70  30  10
RIO RANCHO......................  44  25  37  26 /  10  80  30  30
SOCORRO.........................  50  29  49  30 /  10  50  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  36  19  30  21 /  20 100  50  40
TIJERAS.........................  40  21  32  22 /  20 100  50  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  33  15  27  15 /  30 100  50  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  28  12  22  15 /  50 100  50  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  37  21  33  23 /  20  80  30  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  44  23  40  27 /  10  50  20  10
RUIDOSO.........................  38  17  32  24 /  30  60  20  10
CAPULIN.........................  20   6  18   9 /  80  70  50  40
RATON...........................  22   8  21  10 /  80  70  50  40
SPRINGER........................  24   9  22  11 /  70  80  50  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  19   8  20  11 /  70  90  50  50
CLAYTON.........................  22   7  18  13 /  50  80  60  30
ROY.............................  22   7  19  11 /  70  80  50  40
CONCHAS.........................  28  14  25  17 /  50  80  50  30
SANTA ROSA......................  30  15  25  18 /  50  80  50  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  27  14  24  16 /  40  80  60  30
CLOVIS..........................  29  12  23  16 /  30  80  50  30
PORTALES........................  31  14  24  18 /  30  80  40  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  31  17  27  20 /  40  80  40  30
ROSWELL.........................  37  22  32  24 /  30  30  30  20
PICACHO.........................  33  18  28  21 /  40  50  30  20
ELK.............................  33  16  28  22 /  40  50  20  10

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ536-537-539.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ516-530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ512>515-527>529-531-532.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON FOR
THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-517>519-521>524.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS65 KABQ 260610 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1110 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBY WITH AREAS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBY IN SN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE POST DAWN MORN HOURS THU NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 EAST OF TIJERAS. ALSO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
WILL BE OBSCURED...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE AND FROM THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS S TO THE NORTHERN MANZANOS. FARTHER SOUTH FROM THERE MT
OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 09Z OR 10Z. FIRST WINDSHIFT
HAS BACKED UP TO MOST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE STRONGER
BACK DOOR FRONT INTO FAR NE NM AS OF 06Z WILL PUSH ACROSS ALL OF E
NM AND BREAK THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM N TO S BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. INCREASED
GAP WIND EXPECTED AT ABQ AND SAF TAF SITES AS A RESULT BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD BE MODERATE THU AFTN THEN INCREASE WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25
AND 35 MPH AFTER ABOUT 23Z THU. STILL LOOKING AT LVS TO BE TAF
SITE TO EXPERIENCE THE LOWEST CIGS AND VSBY DURING MUCH OF THIS
FCST PERIOD...THOUGH TCC...ROW...SAF ALSO TO A LITTLE LESSER
DEGREE. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT PERHAPS THU AFTN THEN LOWERING AGAIN
SOMEWHAT THU EVE. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY TO
MID AFTN THU...THEN CIGS LOWERING THERE TO MVFR AND EVEN SPOTTY
IFR LEVELS AS SPOTTY RA AND SN DEVELOP.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...727 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO BRING SNOW CHANCES OVER NRN NM SLIGHTLY FARTHER
WESTWARD. RADAR TRENDS INDICATING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OVER NORTHERN
SANTA FE COUNTY. ALSO SOME ECHOES SHOWING UP IN ERN SOCORRO COUNTY.
REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO FURTHER UPDATES ANTICIPATED.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...520 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WX CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THROUGH THE EVE FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS ON EAST THROUGH THE NE PLAINS AND SE INTO THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A DOUBLE BARRELED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IMPACTS THESE
AREAS. SNOW AND SOME LOW ELEVATION SNOW RAIN MIX ALREADY HAS
BROKEN OUT ACROSS MAINLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST INTO THE NE
HIGHLANDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL SITES
THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND EVENTUALLY SQUEEZES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MT GAPS INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...THE LATTER LIKELY OCCURRING BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
THU. INCREASED GAP WIND EXPECTED AT ABQ AND SAF TAF SITES AS A
RESULT BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE MODERATE DURING THE REST OF THIS FCST
PERIOD. THE MAIN IMPACT DUE TO THE FRONT WILL BE LOWER CIGS/VIS
DUE TO INCREASED SNOWFALL. LVS/TCC WILL DROP DOWN INTO IFR/LIFR
STATUS BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z WITH LVS LIKELY SEEING THE LOWEST CIGS
AND VSBY AND SEEING IT SOONER THAN TCC. THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. ROW WILL MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 12Z. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SAF LATER TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE
EAST HALF OF NM TO VARY FROM IFR AND MVFR THU WITH LOWEST CIGS AND
VSBY AND PRECIP BETWEEN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE WEST EDGE OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS. MT OBSCURATIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN FROM ROUGHLY 01Z ON IN THE NORTH PORTION AND ROUGHLY 08Z
FARTHER SOUTH. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS FCST
PERIOD.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IMPACT
THE AREA. THE FIRST WILL COMBINE WITH A POTENT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TONIGHT INTO LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.
THE SECOND WILL BRING POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LAST SYSTEM WILL
POTENTIALLY BE THE STRONGEST AND LONGEST LASTING...BRINGING
POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME...WITH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY NOT
SEEING HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN UNTIL MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN WILL OFFER LITTLE BREAK FOR
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...SO ENJOY THE BRIEF
BREAK TODAY WHILE YOU CAN. RADAR IMAGES ALREADY INDICATE SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS THANKS TO A BIT OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE FIRST
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SITS OVER FAR SE UTAH AND WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY. A POTENT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AND PROVIDE MUCH COOLER AIR AND SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE
FLOW. THE FRONT AND DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SANGRES AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. ONE THING TO WATCH IS FRONTOGENSIS DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN TUCUMCARI AND NORTHERN CURRY COUNTY...WHICH MAY CREATE
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW IN THAT AREA AND RESULT IN HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST...BUT NOT COMPLETELY END OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AS THE SECOND DISTURBANCE IS RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE...AND UP TO 40
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NE.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SLIGHTLY FARTHER SW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...SHIFTING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION FOCUS TO CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SANDIAS AND SOUTHERN SANGRES...BUT MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM WILL SEE SOME SNOW. EXISTING WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MAY BE
EXTENDED AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW...OR FOLLOWING
SHIFTS MIGHT DEEM ENOUGH OF A LULL TO ISSUE SEPARATE HAZARDS FOR
THIS SECOND EVENT. EXPANSION OF WATCH IS POSSIBLE TOO...BUT WILL
LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS MAKE FINAL JUDGMENT. THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO
WILL BE TOUGHEST TO PEG...AS NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL GAP
WINDS...THOUGH SHALLOW...BATTLE POTENTIAL SNOW BANDING OVER THE
AREA. THE 12Z NAM SHOWED A STRONG BAND OVER THE METRO THAT WOULD
BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE FAIRLY SHALLOW EAST WIND LAYER...BUT THE
SUBSEQUENT 18Z RUN HAS A BAND FARTHER SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR EVENTUAL WARNING/ADVISORY
DECISION. AGAIN...WITH THIS DISTURBANCE QUICKLY EXITING EAST
FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY THE AFTERNOON...ONLY FOR THE
THIRD DISTURBANCE TO INITIATE SHOWERS AGAIN ACROSS W/NW NM FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY.

THE THIRD DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE STRONGEST...BECOMING A CLOSED
LOW OVER OREGON FRIDAY AND PRETTY MUCH REMAINING CLOSED AS IT DIGS
SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM WILL
KEEP GOOD FORCING OVER NW NM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEING FOCUSED OVER WESTERN NM. THE SYSTEM WILL
EJECT AND WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD EAST WITH IT. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE SW FLOW DRAGS WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE
AREA...EVIDENCED BY 700MB TEMPS NEAR FREEZING OVER ABQ SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SO RAIN WILL BE COMMON FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX HIGHER UP. HIGHS TEMPS WILL WARM AS WELL...THOUGH
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. JUST WHEN YOU THINK IT MIGHT BE
OVER...A FOURTH DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW RIGHT IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF
THE THIRD...AND KEEP SHOWERS GOING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE...FEET
OF SNOW WILL HAVE LIKELY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...MODELS SEEM TO AGREE
THAT SOME REPRIEVE FROM THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL COME LATE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THAT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DUE TO SEVERAL SYSTEM PASSAGES. SOME OF THE SYSTEMS WILL FAVOR
EASTERN AREAS LIKE THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM WHILE OTHERS WILL FAVOR
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ON THE FORECAST AREA AND
ESPECIALLY THE PLAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
TONIGHT. A PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS MOST OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND ADDITIONAL COLD AIR WILL RAPIDLY DESCEND ON
THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHEN THE WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL
START UP. THE COOLER AIR SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTN
GAPS...ESPECIALLY AT ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE...AND CREATE GUSTY GAP
WINDS LATER TONIGHT. IN ALL ACTUALITY...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
SEPARATION IN THE TWO CLIPPER WAVES AND BACK DOOR SURGES THAT OCCUR
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH
COOLER AIR EVEN FURTHER WEST AND ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS
FURTHER WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. VENTILATION ON THURSDAY WILL BE
PRETTY GOOD BUT LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE UNUSUALLY HIGH WITH A COOLER THAN NORMAL
AIRMASS.

THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE
WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES AIM ON THE STATE. THIS
LOW APPEARS TO BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME HIGHER
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS THE
WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE FAVORING
THE WESTERN/NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS SHOULD
BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME FOUND NEAR THE
SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. SIMILARLY FOR AREAS AROUND CHAMA AND THE NW
MTNS. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY
LIQUID WATER AMOUNTS. TYPE OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN VERSUS FREEZING
VERSUS SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY VARY SOME AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT
PERIOD.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SOMETIME ON MONDAY BUT ANOTHER PIECE OF THE
PACIFIC JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD TAKE AIM ON
THE STATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE PASSAGE WHICH MEANS A PRETTY SOLID
PHASING OF THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL LIFT DYNAMICS. THE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT ALSO MEANS LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
TREND BUT ECMWF/GFS LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM
IS AT LEAST MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY SOME.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK BASED ON
PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. HUMIDITY VALUES
WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ516-530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527>529-531-532.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-517>519-521>524.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 260610 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1110 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBY WITH AREAS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBY IN SN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE POST DAWN MORN HOURS THU NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 EAST OF TIJERAS. ALSO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
WILL BE OBSCURED...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE AND FROM THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS S TO THE NORTHERN MANZANOS. FARTHER SOUTH FROM THERE MT
OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 09Z OR 10Z. FIRST WINDSHIFT
HAS BACKED UP TO MOST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE STRONGER
BACK DOOR FRONT INTO FAR NE NM AS OF 06Z WILL PUSH ACROSS ALL OF E
NM AND BREAK THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM N TO S BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. INCREASED
GAP WIND EXPECTED AT ABQ AND SAF TAF SITES AS A RESULT BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD BE MODERATE THU AFTN THEN INCREASE WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25
AND 35 MPH AFTER ABOUT 23Z THU. STILL LOOKING AT LVS TO BE TAF
SITE TO EXPERIENCE THE LOWEST CIGS AND VSBY DURING MUCH OF THIS
FCST PERIOD...THOUGH TCC...ROW...SAF ALSO TO A LITTLE LESSER
DEGREE. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT PERHAPS THU AFTN THEN LOWERING AGAIN
SOMEWHAT THU EVE. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY TO
MID AFTN THU...THEN CIGS LOWERING THERE TO MVFR AND EVEN SPOTTY
IFR LEVELS AS SPOTTY RA AND SN DEVELOP.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...727 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO BRING SNOW CHANCES OVER NRN NM SLIGHTLY FARTHER
WESTWARD. RADAR TRENDS INDICATING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OVER NORTHERN
SANTA FE COUNTY. ALSO SOME ECHOES SHOWING UP IN ERN SOCORRO COUNTY.
REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO FURTHER UPDATES ANTICIPATED.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...520 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WX CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THROUGH THE EVE FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS ON EAST THROUGH THE NE PLAINS AND SE INTO THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A DOUBLE BARRELED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IMPACTS THESE
AREAS. SNOW AND SOME LOW ELEVATION SNOW RAIN MIX ALREADY HAS
BROKEN OUT ACROSS MAINLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST INTO THE NE
HIGHLANDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL SITES
THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND EVENTUALLY SQUEEZES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MT GAPS INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...THE LATTER LIKELY OCCURRING BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
THU. INCREASED GAP WIND EXPECTED AT ABQ AND SAF TAF SITES AS A
RESULT BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE MODERATE DURING THE REST OF THIS FCST
PERIOD. THE MAIN IMPACT DUE TO THE FRONT WILL BE LOWER CIGS/VIS
DUE TO INCREASED SNOWFALL. LVS/TCC WILL DROP DOWN INTO IFR/LIFR
STATUS BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z WITH LVS LIKELY SEEING THE LOWEST CIGS
AND VSBY AND SEEING IT SOONER THAN TCC. THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. ROW WILL MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 12Z. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SAF LATER TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE
EAST HALF OF NM TO VARY FROM IFR AND MVFR THU WITH LOWEST CIGS AND
VSBY AND PRECIP BETWEEN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE WEST EDGE OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS. MT OBSCURATIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN FROM ROUGHLY 01Z ON IN THE NORTH PORTION AND ROUGHLY 08Z
FARTHER SOUTH. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS FCST
PERIOD.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IMPACT
THE AREA. THE FIRST WILL COMBINE WITH A POTENT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TONIGHT INTO LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.
THE SECOND WILL BRING POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LAST SYSTEM WILL
POTENTIALLY BE THE STRONGEST AND LONGEST LASTING...BRINGING
POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME...WITH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY NOT
SEEING HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN UNTIL MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN WILL OFFER LITTLE BREAK FOR
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...SO ENJOY THE BRIEF
BREAK TODAY WHILE YOU CAN. RADAR IMAGES ALREADY INDICATE SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS THANKS TO A BIT OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE FIRST
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SITS OVER FAR SE UTAH AND WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY. A POTENT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AND PROVIDE MUCH COOLER AIR AND SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE
FLOW. THE FRONT AND DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SANGRES AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. ONE THING TO WATCH IS FRONTOGENSIS DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN TUCUMCARI AND NORTHERN CURRY COUNTY...WHICH MAY CREATE
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW IN THAT AREA AND RESULT IN HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST...BUT NOT COMPLETELY END OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AS THE SECOND DISTURBANCE IS RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE...AND UP TO 40
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NE.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SLIGHTLY FARTHER SW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...SHIFTING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION FOCUS TO CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SANDIAS AND SOUTHERN SANGRES...BUT MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM WILL SEE SOME SNOW. EXISTING WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MAY BE
EXTENDED AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW...OR FOLLOWING
SHIFTS MIGHT DEEM ENOUGH OF A LULL TO ISSUE SEPARATE HAZARDS FOR
THIS SECOND EVENT. EXPANSION OF WATCH IS POSSIBLE TOO...BUT WILL
LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS MAKE FINAL JUDGMENT. THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO
WILL BE TOUGHEST TO PEG...AS NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL GAP
WINDS...THOUGH SHALLOW...BATTLE POTENTIAL SNOW BANDING OVER THE
AREA. THE 12Z NAM SHOWED A STRONG BAND OVER THE METRO THAT WOULD
BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE FAIRLY SHALLOW EAST WIND LAYER...BUT THE
SUBSEQUENT 18Z RUN HAS A BAND FARTHER SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR EVENTUAL WARNING/ADVISORY
DECISION. AGAIN...WITH THIS DISTURBANCE QUICKLY EXITING EAST
FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY THE AFTERNOON...ONLY FOR THE
THIRD DISTURBANCE TO INITIATE SHOWERS AGAIN ACROSS W/NW NM FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY.

THE THIRD DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE STRONGEST...BECOMING A CLOSED
LOW OVER OREGON FRIDAY AND PRETTY MUCH REMAINING CLOSED AS IT DIGS
SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM WILL
KEEP GOOD FORCING OVER NW NM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEING FOCUSED OVER WESTERN NM. THE SYSTEM WILL
EJECT AND WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD EAST WITH IT. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE SW FLOW DRAGS WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE
AREA...EVIDENCED BY 700MB TEMPS NEAR FREEZING OVER ABQ SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SO RAIN WILL BE COMMON FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX HIGHER UP. HIGHS TEMPS WILL WARM AS WELL...THOUGH
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. JUST WHEN YOU THINK IT MIGHT BE
OVER...A FOURTH DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW RIGHT IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF
THE THIRD...AND KEEP SHOWERS GOING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE...FEET
OF SNOW WILL HAVE LIKELY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...MODELS SEEM TO AGREE
THAT SOME REPRIEVE FROM THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL COME LATE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THAT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DUE TO SEVERAL SYSTEM PASSAGES. SOME OF THE SYSTEMS WILL FAVOR
EASTERN AREAS LIKE THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM WHILE OTHERS WILL FAVOR
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ON THE FORECAST AREA AND
ESPECIALLY THE PLAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
TONIGHT. A PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS MOST OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND ADDITIONAL COLD AIR WILL RAPIDLY DESCEND ON
THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHEN THE WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL
START UP. THE COOLER AIR SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTN
GAPS...ESPECIALLY AT ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE...AND CREATE GUSTY GAP
WINDS LATER TONIGHT. IN ALL ACTUALITY...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
SEPARATION IN THE TWO CLIPPER WAVES AND BACK DOOR SURGES THAT OCCUR
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH
COOLER AIR EVEN FURTHER WEST AND ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS
FURTHER WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. VENTILATION ON THURSDAY WILL BE
PRETTY GOOD BUT LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE UNUSUALLY HIGH WITH A COOLER THAN NORMAL
AIRMASS.

THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE
WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES AIM ON THE STATE. THIS
LOW APPEARS TO BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME HIGHER
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS THE
WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE FAVORING
THE WESTERN/NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS SHOULD
BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME FOUND NEAR THE
SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. SIMILARLY FOR AREAS AROUND CHAMA AND THE NW
MTNS. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY
LIQUID WATER AMOUNTS. TYPE OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN VERSUS FREEZING
VERSUS SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY VARY SOME AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT
PERIOD.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SOMETIME ON MONDAY BUT ANOTHER PIECE OF THE
PACIFIC JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD TAKE AIM ON
THE STATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE PASSAGE WHICH MEANS A PRETTY SOLID
PHASING OF THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL LIFT DYNAMICS. THE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT ALSO MEANS LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
TREND BUT ECMWF/GFS LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM
IS AT LEAST MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY SOME.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK BASED ON
PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. HUMIDITY VALUES
WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ516-530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527>529-531-532.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-517>519-521>524.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 260610 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1110 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS/VSBY WITH AREAS OF LIFR CIGS/VSBY IN SN WILL
CONTINUE INTO THE POST DAWN MORN HOURS THU NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 40 EAST OF TIJERAS. ALSO MUCH OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN
WILL BE OBSCURED...ESPECIALLY ON THE EAST SIDE AND FROM THE SANGRE
DE CRISTOS S TO THE NORTHERN MANZANOS. FARTHER SOUTH FROM THERE MT
OBSCURATIONS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY AFTER 09Z OR 10Z. FIRST WINDSHIFT
HAS BACKED UP TO MOST OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE STRONGER
BACK DOOR FRONT INTO FAR NE NM AS OF 06Z WILL PUSH ACROSS ALL OF E
NM AND BREAK THROUGH PASSES AND CANYONS OF CENTRAL MT CHAIN INTO
THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY FROM N TO S BETWEEN 08Z AND 14Z. INCREASED
GAP WIND EXPECTED AT ABQ AND SAF TAF SITES AS A RESULT BUT SPEEDS
SHOULD BE MODERATE THU AFTN THEN INCREASE WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 25
AND 35 MPH AFTER ABOUT 23Z THU. STILL LOOKING AT LVS TO BE TAF
SITE TO EXPERIENCE THE LOWEST CIGS AND VSBY DURING MUCH OF THIS
FCST PERIOD...THOUGH TCC...ROW...SAF ALSO TO A LITTLE LESSER
DEGREE. SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT PERHAPS THU AFTN THEN LOWERING AGAIN
SOMEWHAT THU EVE. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY TO
MID AFTN THU...THEN CIGS LOWERING THERE TO MVFR AND EVEN SPOTTY
IFR LEVELS AS SPOTTY RA AND SN DEVELOP.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...727 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO BRING SNOW CHANCES OVER NRN NM SLIGHTLY FARTHER
WESTWARD. RADAR TRENDS INDICATING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OVER NORTHERN
SANTA FE COUNTY. ALSO SOME ECHOES SHOWING UP IN ERN SOCORRO COUNTY.
REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO FURTHER UPDATES ANTICIPATED.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...520 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WX CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THROUGH THE EVE FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS ON EAST THROUGH THE NE PLAINS AND SE INTO THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A DOUBLE BARRELED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IMPACTS THESE
AREAS. SNOW AND SOME LOW ELEVATION SNOW RAIN MIX ALREADY HAS
BROKEN OUT ACROSS MAINLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST INTO THE NE
HIGHLANDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL SITES
THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND EVENTUALLY SQUEEZES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MT GAPS INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...THE LATTER LIKELY OCCURRING BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
THU. INCREASED GAP WIND EXPECTED AT ABQ AND SAF TAF SITES AS A
RESULT BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE MODERATE DURING THE REST OF THIS FCST
PERIOD. THE MAIN IMPACT DUE TO THE FRONT WILL BE LOWER CIGS/VIS
DUE TO INCREASED SNOWFALL. LVS/TCC WILL DROP DOWN INTO IFR/LIFR
STATUS BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z WITH LVS LIKELY SEEING THE LOWEST CIGS
AND VSBY AND SEEING IT SOONER THAN TCC. THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. ROW WILL MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 12Z. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SAF LATER TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE
EAST HALF OF NM TO VARY FROM IFR AND MVFR THU WITH LOWEST CIGS AND
VSBY AND PRECIP BETWEEN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE WEST EDGE OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS. MT OBSCURATIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN FROM ROUGHLY 01Z ON IN THE NORTH PORTION AND ROUGHLY 08Z
FARTHER SOUTH. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS FCST
PERIOD.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IMPACT
THE AREA. THE FIRST WILL COMBINE WITH A POTENT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TONIGHT INTO LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.
THE SECOND WILL BRING POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LAST SYSTEM WILL
POTENTIALLY BE THE STRONGEST AND LONGEST LASTING...BRINGING
POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME...WITH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY NOT
SEEING HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN UNTIL MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN WILL OFFER LITTLE BREAK FOR
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...SO ENJOY THE BRIEF
BREAK TODAY WHILE YOU CAN. RADAR IMAGES ALREADY INDICATE SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS THANKS TO A BIT OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE FIRST
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SITS OVER FAR SE UTAH AND WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY. A POTENT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AND PROVIDE MUCH COOLER AIR AND SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE
FLOW. THE FRONT AND DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SANGRES AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. ONE THING TO WATCH IS FRONTOGENSIS DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN TUCUMCARI AND NORTHERN CURRY COUNTY...WHICH MAY CREATE
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW IN THAT AREA AND RESULT IN HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST...BUT NOT COMPLETELY END OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AS THE SECOND DISTURBANCE IS RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE...AND UP TO 40
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NE.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SLIGHTLY FARTHER SW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...SHIFTING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION FOCUS TO CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SANDIAS AND SOUTHERN SANGRES...BUT MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM WILL SEE SOME SNOW. EXISTING WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MAY BE
EXTENDED AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW...OR FOLLOWING
SHIFTS MIGHT DEEM ENOUGH OF A LULL TO ISSUE SEPARATE HAZARDS FOR
THIS SECOND EVENT. EXPANSION OF WATCH IS POSSIBLE TOO...BUT WILL
LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS MAKE FINAL JUDGMENT. THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO
WILL BE TOUGHEST TO PEG...AS NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL GAP
WINDS...THOUGH SHALLOW...BATTLE POTENTIAL SNOW BANDING OVER THE
AREA. THE 12Z NAM SHOWED A STRONG BAND OVER THE METRO THAT WOULD
BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE FAIRLY SHALLOW EAST WIND LAYER...BUT THE
SUBSEQUENT 18Z RUN HAS A BAND FARTHER SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR EVENTUAL WARNING/ADVISORY
DECISION. AGAIN...WITH THIS DISTURBANCE QUICKLY EXITING EAST
FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY THE AFTERNOON...ONLY FOR THE
THIRD DISTURBANCE TO INITIATE SHOWERS AGAIN ACROSS W/NW NM FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY.

THE THIRD DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE STRONGEST...BECOMING A CLOSED
LOW OVER OREGON FRIDAY AND PRETTY MUCH REMAINING CLOSED AS IT DIGS
SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM WILL
KEEP GOOD FORCING OVER NW NM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEING FOCUSED OVER WESTERN NM. THE SYSTEM WILL
EJECT AND WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD EAST WITH IT. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE SW FLOW DRAGS WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE
AREA...EVIDENCED BY 700MB TEMPS NEAR FREEZING OVER ABQ SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SO RAIN WILL BE COMMON FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX HIGHER UP. HIGHS TEMPS WILL WARM AS WELL...THOUGH
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. JUST WHEN YOU THINK IT MIGHT BE
OVER...A FOURTH DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW RIGHT IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF
THE THIRD...AND KEEP SHOWERS GOING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE...FEET
OF SNOW WILL HAVE LIKELY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...MODELS SEEM TO AGREE
THAT SOME REPRIEVE FROM THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL COME LATE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THAT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DUE TO SEVERAL SYSTEM PASSAGES. SOME OF THE SYSTEMS WILL FAVOR
EASTERN AREAS LIKE THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM WHILE OTHERS WILL FAVOR
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ON THE FORECAST AREA AND
ESPECIALLY THE PLAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
TONIGHT. A PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS MOST OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND ADDITIONAL COLD AIR WILL RAPIDLY DESCEND ON
THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHEN THE WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL
START UP. THE COOLER AIR SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTN
GAPS...ESPECIALLY AT ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE...AND CREATE GUSTY GAP
WINDS LATER TONIGHT. IN ALL ACTUALITY...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
SEPARATION IN THE TWO CLIPPER WAVES AND BACK DOOR SURGES THAT OCCUR
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH
COOLER AIR EVEN FURTHER WEST AND ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS
FURTHER WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. VENTILATION ON THURSDAY WILL BE
PRETTY GOOD BUT LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE UNUSUALLY HIGH WITH A COOLER THAN NORMAL
AIRMASS.

THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE
WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES AIM ON THE STATE. THIS
LOW APPEARS TO BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME HIGHER
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS THE
WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE FAVORING
THE WESTERN/NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS SHOULD
BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME FOUND NEAR THE
SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. SIMILARLY FOR AREAS AROUND CHAMA AND THE NW
MTNS. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY
LIQUID WATER AMOUNTS. TYPE OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN VERSUS FREEZING
VERSUS SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY VARY SOME AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT
PERIOD.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SOMETIME ON MONDAY BUT ANOTHER PIECE OF THE
PACIFIC JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD TAKE AIM ON
THE STATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE PASSAGE WHICH MEANS A PRETTY SOLID
PHASING OF THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL LIFT DYNAMICS. THE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT ALSO MEANS LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
TREND BUT ECMWF/GFS LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM
IS AT LEAST MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY SOME.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK BASED ON
PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. HUMIDITY VALUES
WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ516-530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527>529-531-532.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-517>519-521>524.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 260227 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
727 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO BRING SNOW CHANCES OVER NRN NM SLIGHTLY FARTHER
WESTWARD. RADAR TRENDS INDICATING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OVER NORTHERN
SANTA FE COUNTY. ALSO SOME ECHOES SHOWING UP IN ERN SOCORRO COUNTY.
REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO FURTHER UPDATES ANTICIPATED.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...520 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WX CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THROUGH THE EVE FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS ON EAST THROUGH THE NE PLAINS AND SE INTO THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A DOUBLE BARRELED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IMPACTS THESE
AREAS. SNOW AND SOME LOW ELEVATION SNOW RAIN MIX ALREADY HAS
BROKEN OUT ACROSS MAINLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST INTO THE NE
HIGHLANDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL SITES
THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND EVENTUALLY SQUEEZES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MT GAPS INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...THE LATTER LIKELY OCCURRING BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
THU. INCREASED GAP WIND EXPECTED AT ABQ AND SAF TAF SITES AS A
RESULT BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE MODERATE DURING THE REST OF THIS FCST
PERIOD. THE MAIN IMPACT DUE TO THE FRONT WILL BE LOWER CIGS/VIS
DUE TO INCREASED SNOWFALL. LVS/TCC WILL DROP DOWN INTO IFR/LIFR
STATUS BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z WITH LVS LIKELY SEEING THE LOWEST CIGS
AND VSBY AND SEEING IT SOONER THAN TCC. THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. ROW WILL MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 12Z. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SAF LATER TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE
EAST HALF OF NM TO VARY FROM IFR AND MVFR THU WITH LOWEST CIGS AND
VSBY AND PRECIP BETWEEN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE WEST EDGE OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS. MT OBSCURATIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN FROM ROUGHLY 01Z ON IN THE NORTH PORTION AND ROUGHLY 08Z
FARTHER SOUTH. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS FCST
PERIOD.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IMPACT
THE AREA. THE FIRST WILL COMBINE WITH A POTENT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TONIGHT INTO LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.
THE SECOND WILL BRING POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LAST SYSTEM WILL
POTENTIALLY BE THE STRONGEST AND LONGEST LASTING...BRINGING
POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME...WITH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY NOT
SEEING HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN UNTIL MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN WILL OFFER LITTLE BREAK FOR
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...SO ENJOY THE BRIEF
BREAK TODAY WHILE YOU CAN. RADAR IMAGES ALREADY INDICATE SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS THANKS TO A BIT OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE FIRST
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SITS OVER FAR SE UTAH AND WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY. A POTENT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AND PROVIDE MUCH COOLER AIR AND SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE
FLOW. THE FRONT AND DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SANGRES AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. ONE THING TO WATCH IS FRONTOGENSIS DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN TUCUMCARI AND NORTHERN CURRY COUNTY...WHICH MAY CREATE
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW IN THAT AREA AND RESULT IN HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST...BUT NOT COMPLETELY END OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AS THE SECOND DISTURBANCE IS RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE...AND UP TO 40
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NE.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SLIGHTLY FARTHER SW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...SHIFTING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION FOCUS TO CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SANDIAS AND SOUTHERN SANGRES...BUT MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM WILL SEE SOME SNOW. EXISTING WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MAY BE
EXTENDED AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW...OR FOLLOWING
SHIFTS MIGHT DEEM ENOUGH OF A LULL TO ISSUE SEPARATE HAZARDS FOR
THIS SECOND EVENT. EXPANSION OF WATCH IS POSSIBLE TOO...BUT WILL
LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS MAKE FINAL JUDGMENT. THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO
WILL BE TOUGHEST TO PEG...AS NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL GAP
WINDS...THOUGH SHALLOW...BATTLE POTENTIAL SNOW BANDING OVER THE
AREA. THE 12Z NAM SHOWED A STRONG BAND OVER THE METRO THAT WOULD
BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE FAIRLY SHALLOW EAST WIND LAYER...BUT THE
SUBSEQUENT 18Z RUN HAS A BAND FARTHER SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR EVENTUAL WARNING/ADVISORY
DECISION. AGAIN...WITH THIS DISTURBANCE QUICKLY EXITING EAST
FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY THE AFTERNOON...ONLY FOR THE
THIRD DISTURBANCE TO INITIATE SHOWERS AGAIN ACROSS W/NW NM FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY.

THE THIRD DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE STRONGEST...BECOMING A CLOSED
LOW OVER OREGON FRIDAY AND PRETTY MUCH REMAINING CLOSED AS IT DIGS
SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM WILL
KEEP GOOD FORCING OVER NW NM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEING FOCUSED OVER WESTERN NM. THE SYSTEM WILL
EJECT AND WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD EAST WITH IT. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE SW FLOW DRAGS WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE
AREA...EVIDENCED BY 700MB TEMPS NEAR FREEZING OVER ABQ SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SO RAIN WILL BE COMMON FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX HIGHER UP. HIGHS TEMPS WILL WARM AS WELL...THOUGH
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. JUST WHEN YOU THINK IT MIGHT BE
OVER...A FOURTH DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW RIGHT IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF
THE THIRD...AND KEEP SHOWERS GOING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE...FEET
OF SNOW WILL HAVE LIKELY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...MODELS SEEM TO AGREE
THAT SOME REPRIEVE FROM THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL COME LATE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THAT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DUE TO SEVERAL SYSTEM PASSAGES. SOME OF THE SYSTEMS WILL FAVOR
EASTERN AREAS LIKE THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM WHILE OTHERS WILL FAVOR
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ON THE FORECAST AREA AND
ESPECIALLY THE PLAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
TONIGHT. A PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS MOST OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND ADDITIONAL COLD AIR WILL RAPIDLY DESCEND ON
THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHEN THE WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL
START UP. THE COOLER AIR SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTN
GAPS...ESPECIALLY AT ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE...AND CREATE GUSTY GAP
WINDS LATER TONIGHT. IN ALL ACTUALITY...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
SEPARATION IN THE TWO CLIPPER WAVES AND BACK DOOR SURGES THAT OCCUR
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH
COOLER AIR EVEN FURTHER WEST AND ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS
FURTHER WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. VENTILATION ON THURSDAY WILL BE
PRETTY GOOD BUT LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE UNUSUALLY HIGH WITH A COOLER THAN NORMAL
AIRMASS.

THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE
WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES AIM ON THE STATE. THIS
LOW APPEARS TO BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME HIGHER
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS THE
WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE FAVORING
THE WESTERN/NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS SHOULD
BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME FOUND NEAR THE
SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. SIMILARLY FOR AREAS AROUND CHAMA AND THE NW
MTNS. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY
LIQUID WATER AMOUNTS. TYPE OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN VERSUS FREEZING
VERSUS SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY VARY SOME AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT
PERIOD.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SOMETIME ON MONDAY BUT ANOTHER PIECE OF THE
PACIFIC JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD TAKE AIM ON
THE STATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE PASSAGE WHICH MEANS A PRETTY SOLID
PHASING OF THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL LIFT DYNAMICS. THE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT ALSO MEANS LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
TREND BUT ECMWF/GFS LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM
IS AT LEAST MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY SOME.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK BASED ON
PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. HUMIDITY VALUES
WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ516-530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527>529-531-532.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-517>519-521>524.

&&

$$

33










000
FXUS65 KABQ 260227 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
727 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO BRING SNOW CHANCES OVER NRN NM SLIGHTLY FARTHER
WESTWARD. RADAR TRENDS INDICATING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OVER NORTHERN
SANTA FE COUNTY. ALSO SOME ECHOES SHOWING UP IN ERN SOCORRO COUNTY.
REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO FURTHER UPDATES ANTICIPATED.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...520 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WX CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THROUGH THE EVE FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS ON EAST THROUGH THE NE PLAINS AND SE INTO THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A DOUBLE BARRELED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IMPACTS THESE
AREAS. SNOW AND SOME LOW ELEVATION SNOW RAIN MIX ALREADY HAS
BROKEN OUT ACROSS MAINLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST INTO THE NE
HIGHLANDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL SITES
THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND EVENTUALLY SQUEEZES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MT GAPS INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...THE LATTER LIKELY OCCURRING BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
THU. INCREASED GAP WIND EXPECTED AT ABQ AND SAF TAF SITES AS A
RESULT BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE MODERATE DURING THE REST OF THIS FCST
PERIOD. THE MAIN IMPACT DUE TO THE FRONT WILL BE LOWER CIGS/VIS
DUE TO INCREASED SNOWFALL. LVS/TCC WILL DROP DOWN INTO IFR/LIFR
STATUS BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z WITH LVS LIKELY SEEING THE LOWEST CIGS
AND VSBY AND SEEING IT SOONER THAN TCC. THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. ROW WILL MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 12Z. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SAF LATER TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE
EAST HALF OF NM TO VARY FROM IFR AND MVFR THU WITH LOWEST CIGS AND
VSBY AND PRECIP BETWEEN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE WEST EDGE OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS. MT OBSCURATIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN FROM ROUGHLY 01Z ON IN THE NORTH PORTION AND ROUGHLY 08Z
FARTHER SOUTH. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS FCST
PERIOD.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IMPACT
THE AREA. THE FIRST WILL COMBINE WITH A POTENT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TONIGHT INTO LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.
THE SECOND WILL BRING POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LAST SYSTEM WILL
POTENTIALLY BE THE STRONGEST AND LONGEST LASTING...BRINGING
POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME...WITH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY NOT
SEEING HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN UNTIL MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN WILL OFFER LITTLE BREAK FOR
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...SO ENJOY THE BRIEF
BREAK TODAY WHILE YOU CAN. RADAR IMAGES ALREADY INDICATE SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS THANKS TO A BIT OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE FIRST
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SITS OVER FAR SE UTAH AND WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY. A POTENT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AND PROVIDE MUCH COOLER AIR AND SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE
FLOW. THE FRONT AND DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SANGRES AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. ONE THING TO WATCH IS FRONTOGENSIS DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN TUCUMCARI AND NORTHERN CURRY COUNTY...WHICH MAY CREATE
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW IN THAT AREA AND RESULT IN HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST...BUT NOT COMPLETELY END OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AS THE SECOND DISTURBANCE IS RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE...AND UP TO 40
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NE.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SLIGHTLY FARTHER SW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...SHIFTING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION FOCUS TO CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SANDIAS AND SOUTHERN SANGRES...BUT MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM WILL SEE SOME SNOW. EXISTING WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MAY BE
EXTENDED AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW...OR FOLLOWING
SHIFTS MIGHT DEEM ENOUGH OF A LULL TO ISSUE SEPARATE HAZARDS FOR
THIS SECOND EVENT. EXPANSION OF WATCH IS POSSIBLE TOO...BUT WILL
LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS MAKE FINAL JUDGMENT. THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO
WILL BE TOUGHEST TO PEG...AS NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL GAP
WINDS...THOUGH SHALLOW...BATTLE POTENTIAL SNOW BANDING OVER THE
AREA. THE 12Z NAM SHOWED A STRONG BAND OVER THE METRO THAT WOULD
BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE FAIRLY SHALLOW EAST WIND LAYER...BUT THE
SUBSEQUENT 18Z RUN HAS A BAND FARTHER SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR EVENTUAL WARNING/ADVISORY
DECISION. AGAIN...WITH THIS DISTURBANCE QUICKLY EXITING EAST
FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY THE AFTERNOON...ONLY FOR THE
THIRD DISTURBANCE TO INITIATE SHOWERS AGAIN ACROSS W/NW NM FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY.

THE THIRD DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE STRONGEST...BECOMING A CLOSED
LOW OVER OREGON FRIDAY AND PRETTY MUCH REMAINING CLOSED AS IT DIGS
SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM WILL
KEEP GOOD FORCING OVER NW NM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEING FOCUSED OVER WESTERN NM. THE SYSTEM WILL
EJECT AND WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD EAST WITH IT. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE SW FLOW DRAGS WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE
AREA...EVIDENCED BY 700MB TEMPS NEAR FREEZING OVER ABQ SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SO RAIN WILL BE COMMON FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX HIGHER UP. HIGHS TEMPS WILL WARM AS WELL...THOUGH
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. JUST WHEN YOU THINK IT MIGHT BE
OVER...A FOURTH DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW RIGHT IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF
THE THIRD...AND KEEP SHOWERS GOING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE...FEET
OF SNOW WILL HAVE LIKELY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...MODELS SEEM TO AGREE
THAT SOME REPRIEVE FROM THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL COME LATE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THAT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DUE TO SEVERAL SYSTEM PASSAGES. SOME OF THE SYSTEMS WILL FAVOR
EASTERN AREAS LIKE THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM WHILE OTHERS WILL FAVOR
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ON THE FORECAST AREA AND
ESPECIALLY THE PLAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
TONIGHT. A PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS MOST OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND ADDITIONAL COLD AIR WILL RAPIDLY DESCEND ON
THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHEN THE WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL
START UP. THE COOLER AIR SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTN
GAPS...ESPECIALLY AT ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE...AND CREATE GUSTY GAP
WINDS LATER TONIGHT. IN ALL ACTUALITY...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
SEPARATION IN THE TWO CLIPPER WAVES AND BACK DOOR SURGES THAT OCCUR
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH
COOLER AIR EVEN FURTHER WEST AND ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS
FURTHER WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. VENTILATION ON THURSDAY WILL BE
PRETTY GOOD BUT LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE UNUSUALLY HIGH WITH A COOLER THAN NORMAL
AIRMASS.

THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE
WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES AIM ON THE STATE. THIS
LOW APPEARS TO BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME HIGHER
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS THE
WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE FAVORING
THE WESTERN/NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS SHOULD
BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME FOUND NEAR THE
SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. SIMILARLY FOR AREAS AROUND CHAMA AND THE NW
MTNS. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY
LIQUID WATER AMOUNTS. TYPE OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN VERSUS FREEZING
VERSUS SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY VARY SOME AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT
PERIOD.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SOMETIME ON MONDAY BUT ANOTHER PIECE OF THE
PACIFIC JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD TAKE AIM ON
THE STATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE PASSAGE WHICH MEANS A PRETTY SOLID
PHASING OF THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL LIFT DYNAMICS. THE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT ALSO MEANS LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
TREND BUT ECMWF/GFS LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM
IS AT LEAST MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY SOME.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK BASED ON
PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. HUMIDITY VALUES
WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ516-530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527>529-531-532.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-517>519-521>524.

&&

$$

33









000
FXUS65 KABQ 260227 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
727 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO BRING SNOW CHANCES OVER NRN NM SLIGHTLY FARTHER
WESTWARD. RADAR TRENDS INDICATING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OVER NORTHERN
SANTA FE COUNTY. ALSO SOME ECHOES SHOWING UP IN ERN SOCORRO COUNTY.
REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO FURTHER UPDATES ANTICIPATED.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...520 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WX CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THROUGH THE EVE FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS ON EAST THROUGH THE NE PLAINS AND SE INTO THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A DOUBLE BARRELED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IMPACTS THESE
AREAS. SNOW AND SOME LOW ELEVATION SNOW RAIN MIX ALREADY HAS
BROKEN OUT ACROSS MAINLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST INTO THE NE
HIGHLANDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL SITES
THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND EVENTUALLY SQUEEZES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MT GAPS INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...THE LATTER LIKELY OCCURRING BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
THU. INCREASED GAP WIND EXPECTED AT ABQ AND SAF TAF SITES AS A
RESULT BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE MODERATE DURING THE REST OF THIS FCST
PERIOD. THE MAIN IMPACT DUE TO THE FRONT WILL BE LOWER CIGS/VIS
DUE TO INCREASED SNOWFALL. LVS/TCC WILL DROP DOWN INTO IFR/LIFR
STATUS BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z WITH LVS LIKELY SEEING THE LOWEST CIGS
AND VSBY AND SEEING IT SOONER THAN TCC. THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. ROW WILL MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 12Z. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SAF LATER TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE
EAST HALF OF NM TO VARY FROM IFR AND MVFR THU WITH LOWEST CIGS AND
VSBY AND PRECIP BETWEEN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE WEST EDGE OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS. MT OBSCURATIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN FROM ROUGHLY 01Z ON IN THE NORTH PORTION AND ROUGHLY 08Z
FARTHER SOUTH. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS FCST
PERIOD.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IMPACT
THE AREA. THE FIRST WILL COMBINE WITH A POTENT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TONIGHT INTO LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.
THE SECOND WILL BRING POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LAST SYSTEM WILL
POTENTIALLY BE THE STRONGEST AND LONGEST LASTING...BRINGING
POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME...WITH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY NOT
SEEING HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN UNTIL MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN WILL OFFER LITTLE BREAK FOR
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...SO ENJOY THE BRIEF
BREAK TODAY WHILE YOU CAN. RADAR IMAGES ALREADY INDICATE SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS THANKS TO A BIT OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE FIRST
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SITS OVER FAR SE UTAH AND WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY. A POTENT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AND PROVIDE MUCH COOLER AIR AND SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE
FLOW. THE FRONT AND DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SANGRES AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. ONE THING TO WATCH IS FRONTOGENSIS DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN TUCUMCARI AND NORTHERN CURRY COUNTY...WHICH MAY CREATE
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW IN THAT AREA AND RESULT IN HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST...BUT NOT COMPLETELY END OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AS THE SECOND DISTURBANCE IS RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE...AND UP TO 40
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NE.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SLIGHTLY FARTHER SW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...SHIFTING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION FOCUS TO CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SANDIAS AND SOUTHERN SANGRES...BUT MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM WILL SEE SOME SNOW. EXISTING WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MAY BE
EXTENDED AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW...OR FOLLOWING
SHIFTS MIGHT DEEM ENOUGH OF A LULL TO ISSUE SEPARATE HAZARDS FOR
THIS SECOND EVENT. EXPANSION OF WATCH IS POSSIBLE TOO...BUT WILL
LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS MAKE FINAL JUDGMENT. THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO
WILL BE TOUGHEST TO PEG...AS NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL GAP
WINDS...THOUGH SHALLOW...BATTLE POTENTIAL SNOW BANDING OVER THE
AREA. THE 12Z NAM SHOWED A STRONG BAND OVER THE METRO THAT WOULD
BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE FAIRLY SHALLOW EAST WIND LAYER...BUT THE
SUBSEQUENT 18Z RUN HAS A BAND FARTHER SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR EVENTUAL WARNING/ADVISORY
DECISION. AGAIN...WITH THIS DISTURBANCE QUICKLY EXITING EAST
FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY THE AFTERNOON...ONLY FOR THE
THIRD DISTURBANCE TO INITIATE SHOWERS AGAIN ACROSS W/NW NM FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY.

THE THIRD DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE STRONGEST...BECOMING A CLOSED
LOW OVER OREGON FRIDAY AND PRETTY MUCH REMAINING CLOSED AS IT DIGS
SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM WILL
KEEP GOOD FORCING OVER NW NM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEING FOCUSED OVER WESTERN NM. THE SYSTEM WILL
EJECT AND WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD EAST WITH IT. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE SW FLOW DRAGS WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE
AREA...EVIDENCED BY 700MB TEMPS NEAR FREEZING OVER ABQ SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SO RAIN WILL BE COMMON FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX HIGHER UP. HIGHS TEMPS WILL WARM AS WELL...THOUGH
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. JUST WHEN YOU THINK IT MIGHT BE
OVER...A FOURTH DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW RIGHT IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF
THE THIRD...AND KEEP SHOWERS GOING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE...FEET
OF SNOW WILL HAVE LIKELY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...MODELS SEEM TO AGREE
THAT SOME REPRIEVE FROM THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL COME LATE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THAT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DUE TO SEVERAL SYSTEM PASSAGES. SOME OF THE SYSTEMS WILL FAVOR
EASTERN AREAS LIKE THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM WHILE OTHERS WILL FAVOR
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ON THE FORECAST AREA AND
ESPECIALLY THE PLAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
TONIGHT. A PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS MOST OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND ADDITIONAL COLD AIR WILL RAPIDLY DESCEND ON
THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHEN THE WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL
START UP. THE COOLER AIR SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTN
GAPS...ESPECIALLY AT ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE...AND CREATE GUSTY GAP
WINDS LATER TONIGHT. IN ALL ACTUALITY...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
SEPARATION IN THE TWO CLIPPER WAVES AND BACK DOOR SURGES THAT OCCUR
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH
COOLER AIR EVEN FURTHER WEST AND ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS
FURTHER WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. VENTILATION ON THURSDAY WILL BE
PRETTY GOOD BUT LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE UNUSUALLY HIGH WITH A COOLER THAN NORMAL
AIRMASS.

THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE
WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES AIM ON THE STATE. THIS
LOW APPEARS TO BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME HIGHER
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS THE
WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE FAVORING
THE WESTERN/NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS SHOULD
BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME FOUND NEAR THE
SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. SIMILARLY FOR AREAS AROUND CHAMA AND THE NW
MTNS. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY
LIQUID WATER AMOUNTS. TYPE OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN VERSUS FREEZING
VERSUS SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY VARY SOME AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT
PERIOD.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SOMETIME ON MONDAY BUT ANOTHER PIECE OF THE
PACIFIC JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD TAKE AIM ON
THE STATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE PASSAGE WHICH MEANS A PRETTY SOLID
PHASING OF THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL LIFT DYNAMICS. THE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT ALSO MEANS LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
TREND BUT ECMWF/GFS LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM
IS AT LEAST MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY SOME.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK BASED ON
PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. HUMIDITY VALUES
WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ516-530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527>529-531-532.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-517>519-521>524.

&&

$$

33









000
FXUS65 KABQ 260227 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
727 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO BRING SNOW CHANCES OVER NRN NM SLIGHTLY FARTHER
WESTWARD. RADAR TRENDS INDICATING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OVER NORTHERN
SANTA FE COUNTY. ALSO SOME ECHOES SHOWING UP IN ERN SOCORRO COUNTY.
REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO FURTHER UPDATES ANTICIPATED.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...520 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WX CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THROUGH THE EVE FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS ON EAST THROUGH THE NE PLAINS AND SE INTO THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A DOUBLE BARRELED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IMPACTS THESE
AREAS. SNOW AND SOME LOW ELEVATION SNOW RAIN MIX ALREADY HAS
BROKEN OUT ACROSS MAINLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST INTO THE NE
HIGHLANDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL SITES
THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND EVENTUALLY SQUEEZES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MT GAPS INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...THE LATTER LIKELY OCCURRING BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
THU. INCREASED GAP WIND EXPECTED AT ABQ AND SAF TAF SITES AS A
RESULT BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE MODERATE DURING THE REST OF THIS FCST
PERIOD. THE MAIN IMPACT DUE TO THE FRONT WILL BE LOWER CIGS/VIS
DUE TO INCREASED SNOWFALL. LVS/TCC WILL DROP DOWN INTO IFR/LIFR
STATUS BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z WITH LVS LIKELY SEEING THE LOWEST CIGS
AND VSBY AND SEEING IT SOONER THAN TCC. THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. ROW WILL MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 12Z. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SAF LATER TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE
EAST HALF OF NM TO VARY FROM IFR AND MVFR THU WITH LOWEST CIGS AND
VSBY AND PRECIP BETWEEN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE WEST EDGE OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS. MT OBSCURATIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN FROM ROUGHLY 01Z ON IN THE NORTH PORTION AND ROUGHLY 08Z
FARTHER SOUTH. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS FCST
PERIOD.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IMPACT
THE AREA. THE FIRST WILL COMBINE WITH A POTENT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TONIGHT INTO LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.
THE SECOND WILL BRING POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LAST SYSTEM WILL
POTENTIALLY BE THE STRONGEST AND LONGEST LASTING...BRINGING
POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME...WITH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY NOT
SEEING HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN UNTIL MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN WILL OFFER LITTLE BREAK FOR
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...SO ENJOY THE BRIEF
BREAK TODAY WHILE YOU CAN. RADAR IMAGES ALREADY INDICATE SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS THANKS TO A BIT OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE FIRST
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SITS OVER FAR SE UTAH AND WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY. A POTENT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AND PROVIDE MUCH COOLER AIR AND SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE
FLOW. THE FRONT AND DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SANGRES AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. ONE THING TO WATCH IS FRONTOGENSIS DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN TUCUMCARI AND NORTHERN CURRY COUNTY...WHICH MAY CREATE
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW IN THAT AREA AND RESULT IN HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST...BUT NOT COMPLETELY END OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AS THE SECOND DISTURBANCE IS RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE...AND UP TO 40
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NE.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SLIGHTLY FARTHER SW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...SHIFTING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION FOCUS TO CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SANDIAS AND SOUTHERN SANGRES...BUT MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM WILL SEE SOME SNOW. EXISTING WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MAY BE
EXTENDED AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW...OR FOLLOWING
SHIFTS MIGHT DEEM ENOUGH OF A LULL TO ISSUE SEPARATE HAZARDS FOR
THIS SECOND EVENT. EXPANSION OF WATCH IS POSSIBLE TOO...BUT WILL
LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS MAKE FINAL JUDGMENT. THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO
WILL BE TOUGHEST TO PEG...AS NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL GAP
WINDS...THOUGH SHALLOW...BATTLE POTENTIAL SNOW BANDING OVER THE
AREA. THE 12Z NAM SHOWED A STRONG BAND OVER THE METRO THAT WOULD
BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE FAIRLY SHALLOW EAST WIND LAYER...BUT THE
SUBSEQUENT 18Z RUN HAS A BAND FARTHER SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR EVENTUAL WARNING/ADVISORY
DECISION. AGAIN...WITH THIS DISTURBANCE QUICKLY EXITING EAST
FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY THE AFTERNOON...ONLY FOR THE
THIRD DISTURBANCE TO INITIATE SHOWERS AGAIN ACROSS W/NW NM FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY.

THE THIRD DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE STRONGEST...BECOMING A CLOSED
LOW OVER OREGON FRIDAY AND PRETTY MUCH REMAINING CLOSED AS IT DIGS
SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM WILL
KEEP GOOD FORCING OVER NW NM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEING FOCUSED OVER WESTERN NM. THE SYSTEM WILL
EJECT AND WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD EAST WITH IT. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE SW FLOW DRAGS WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE
AREA...EVIDENCED BY 700MB TEMPS NEAR FREEZING OVER ABQ SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SO RAIN WILL BE COMMON FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX HIGHER UP. HIGHS TEMPS WILL WARM AS WELL...THOUGH
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. JUST WHEN YOU THINK IT MIGHT BE
OVER...A FOURTH DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW RIGHT IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF
THE THIRD...AND KEEP SHOWERS GOING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE...FEET
OF SNOW WILL HAVE LIKELY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...MODELS SEEM TO AGREE
THAT SOME REPRIEVE FROM THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL COME LATE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THAT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DUE TO SEVERAL SYSTEM PASSAGES. SOME OF THE SYSTEMS WILL FAVOR
EASTERN AREAS LIKE THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM WHILE OTHERS WILL FAVOR
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ON THE FORECAST AREA AND
ESPECIALLY THE PLAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
TONIGHT. A PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS MOST OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND ADDITIONAL COLD AIR WILL RAPIDLY DESCEND ON
THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHEN THE WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL
START UP. THE COOLER AIR SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTN
GAPS...ESPECIALLY AT ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE...AND CREATE GUSTY GAP
WINDS LATER TONIGHT. IN ALL ACTUALITY...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
SEPARATION IN THE TWO CLIPPER WAVES AND BACK DOOR SURGES THAT OCCUR
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH
COOLER AIR EVEN FURTHER WEST AND ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS
FURTHER WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. VENTILATION ON THURSDAY WILL BE
PRETTY GOOD BUT LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE UNUSUALLY HIGH WITH A COOLER THAN NORMAL
AIRMASS.

THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE
WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES AIM ON THE STATE. THIS
LOW APPEARS TO BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME HIGHER
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS THE
WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE FAVORING
THE WESTERN/NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS SHOULD
BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME FOUND NEAR THE
SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. SIMILARLY FOR AREAS AROUND CHAMA AND THE NW
MTNS. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY
LIQUID WATER AMOUNTS. TYPE OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN VERSUS FREEZING
VERSUS SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY VARY SOME AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT
PERIOD.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SOMETIME ON MONDAY BUT ANOTHER PIECE OF THE
PACIFIC JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD TAKE AIM ON
THE STATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE PASSAGE WHICH MEANS A PRETTY SOLID
PHASING OF THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL LIFT DYNAMICS. THE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT ALSO MEANS LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
TREND BUT ECMWF/GFS LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM
IS AT LEAST MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY SOME.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK BASED ON
PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. HUMIDITY VALUES
WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ516-530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527>529-531-532.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-517>519-521>524.

&&

$$

33









000
FXUS65 KABQ 260227 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
727 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO BRING SNOW CHANCES OVER NRN NM SLIGHTLY FARTHER
WESTWARD. RADAR TRENDS INDICATING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OVER NORTHERN
SANTA FE COUNTY. ALSO SOME ECHOES SHOWING UP IN ERN SOCORRO COUNTY.
REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO FURTHER UPDATES ANTICIPATED.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...520 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WX CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THROUGH THE EVE FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS ON EAST THROUGH THE NE PLAINS AND SE INTO THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A DOUBLE BARRELED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IMPACTS THESE
AREAS. SNOW AND SOME LOW ELEVATION SNOW RAIN MIX ALREADY HAS
BROKEN OUT ACROSS MAINLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST INTO THE NE
HIGHLANDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL SITES
THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND EVENTUALLY SQUEEZES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MT GAPS INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...THE LATTER LIKELY OCCURRING BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
THU. INCREASED GAP WIND EXPECTED AT ABQ AND SAF TAF SITES AS A
RESULT BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE MODERATE DURING THE REST OF THIS FCST
PERIOD. THE MAIN IMPACT DUE TO THE FRONT WILL BE LOWER CIGS/VIS
DUE TO INCREASED SNOWFALL. LVS/TCC WILL DROP DOWN INTO IFR/LIFR
STATUS BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z WITH LVS LIKELY SEEING THE LOWEST CIGS
AND VSBY AND SEEING IT SOONER THAN TCC. THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. ROW WILL MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 12Z. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SAF LATER TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE
EAST HALF OF NM TO VARY FROM IFR AND MVFR THU WITH LOWEST CIGS AND
VSBY AND PRECIP BETWEEN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE WEST EDGE OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS. MT OBSCURATIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN FROM ROUGHLY 01Z ON IN THE NORTH PORTION AND ROUGHLY 08Z
FARTHER SOUTH. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS FCST
PERIOD.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IMPACT
THE AREA. THE FIRST WILL COMBINE WITH A POTENT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TONIGHT INTO LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.
THE SECOND WILL BRING POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LAST SYSTEM WILL
POTENTIALLY BE THE STRONGEST AND LONGEST LASTING...BRINGING
POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME...WITH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY NOT
SEEING HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN UNTIL MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN WILL OFFER LITTLE BREAK FOR
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...SO ENJOY THE BRIEF
BREAK TODAY WHILE YOU CAN. RADAR IMAGES ALREADY INDICATE SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS THANKS TO A BIT OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE FIRST
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SITS OVER FAR SE UTAH AND WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY. A POTENT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AND PROVIDE MUCH COOLER AIR AND SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE
FLOW. THE FRONT AND DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SANGRES AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. ONE THING TO WATCH IS FRONTOGENSIS DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN TUCUMCARI AND NORTHERN CURRY COUNTY...WHICH MAY CREATE
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW IN THAT AREA AND RESULT IN HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST...BUT NOT COMPLETELY END OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AS THE SECOND DISTURBANCE IS RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE...AND UP TO 40
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NE.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SLIGHTLY FARTHER SW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...SHIFTING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION FOCUS TO CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SANDIAS AND SOUTHERN SANGRES...BUT MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM WILL SEE SOME SNOW. EXISTING WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MAY BE
EXTENDED AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW...OR FOLLOWING
SHIFTS MIGHT DEEM ENOUGH OF A LULL TO ISSUE SEPARATE HAZARDS FOR
THIS SECOND EVENT. EXPANSION OF WATCH IS POSSIBLE TOO...BUT WILL
LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS MAKE FINAL JUDGMENT. THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO
WILL BE TOUGHEST TO PEG...AS NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL GAP
WINDS...THOUGH SHALLOW...BATTLE POTENTIAL SNOW BANDING OVER THE
AREA. THE 12Z NAM SHOWED A STRONG BAND OVER THE METRO THAT WOULD
BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE FAIRLY SHALLOW EAST WIND LAYER...BUT THE
SUBSEQUENT 18Z RUN HAS A BAND FARTHER SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR EVENTUAL WARNING/ADVISORY
DECISION. AGAIN...WITH THIS DISTURBANCE QUICKLY EXITING EAST
FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY THE AFTERNOON...ONLY FOR THE
THIRD DISTURBANCE TO INITIATE SHOWERS AGAIN ACROSS W/NW NM FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY.

THE THIRD DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE STRONGEST...BECOMING A CLOSED
LOW OVER OREGON FRIDAY AND PRETTY MUCH REMAINING CLOSED AS IT DIGS
SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM WILL
KEEP GOOD FORCING OVER NW NM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEING FOCUSED OVER WESTERN NM. THE SYSTEM WILL
EJECT AND WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD EAST WITH IT. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE SW FLOW DRAGS WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE
AREA...EVIDENCED BY 700MB TEMPS NEAR FREEZING OVER ABQ SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SO RAIN WILL BE COMMON FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX HIGHER UP. HIGHS TEMPS WILL WARM AS WELL...THOUGH
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. JUST WHEN YOU THINK IT MIGHT BE
OVER...A FOURTH DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW RIGHT IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF
THE THIRD...AND KEEP SHOWERS GOING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE...FEET
OF SNOW WILL HAVE LIKELY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...MODELS SEEM TO AGREE
THAT SOME REPRIEVE FROM THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL COME LATE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THAT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DUE TO SEVERAL SYSTEM PASSAGES. SOME OF THE SYSTEMS WILL FAVOR
EASTERN AREAS LIKE THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM WHILE OTHERS WILL FAVOR
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ON THE FORECAST AREA AND
ESPECIALLY THE PLAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
TONIGHT. A PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS MOST OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND ADDITIONAL COLD AIR WILL RAPIDLY DESCEND ON
THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHEN THE WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL
START UP. THE COOLER AIR SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTN
GAPS...ESPECIALLY AT ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE...AND CREATE GUSTY GAP
WINDS LATER TONIGHT. IN ALL ACTUALITY...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
SEPARATION IN THE TWO CLIPPER WAVES AND BACK DOOR SURGES THAT OCCUR
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH
COOLER AIR EVEN FURTHER WEST AND ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS
FURTHER WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. VENTILATION ON THURSDAY WILL BE
PRETTY GOOD BUT LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE UNUSUALLY HIGH WITH A COOLER THAN NORMAL
AIRMASS.

THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE
WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES AIM ON THE STATE. THIS
LOW APPEARS TO BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME HIGHER
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS THE
WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE FAVORING
THE WESTERN/NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS SHOULD
BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME FOUND NEAR THE
SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. SIMILARLY FOR AREAS AROUND CHAMA AND THE NW
MTNS. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY
LIQUID WATER AMOUNTS. TYPE OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN VERSUS FREEZING
VERSUS SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY VARY SOME AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT
PERIOD.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SOMETIME ON MONDAY BUT ANOTHER PIECE OF THE
PACIFIC JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD TAKE AIM ON
THE STATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE PASSAGE WHICH MEANS A PRETTY SOLID
PHASING OF THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL LIFT DYNAMICS. THE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT ALSO MEANS LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
TREND BUT ECMWF/GFS LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM
IS AT LEAST MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY SOME.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK BASED ON
PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. HUMIDITY VALUES
WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ516-530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527>529-531-532.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-517>519-521>524.

&&

$$

33









000
FXUS65 KABQ 260227 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
727 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED FORECAST TO BRING SNOW CHANCES OVER NRN NM SLIGHTLY FARTHER
WESTWARD. RADAR TRENDS INDICATING LIGHT SNOW OVER MUCH OVER NORTHERN
SANTA FE COUNTY. ALSO SOME ECHOES SHOWING UP IN ERN SOCORRO COUNTY.
REST OF FORECAST ON TRACK WITH NO FURTHER UPDATES ANTICIPATED.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...520 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WX CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THROUGH THE EVE FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS ON EAST THROUGH THE NE PLAINS AND SE INTO THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A DOUBLE BARRELED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IMPACTS THESE
AREAS. SNOW AND SOME LOW ELEVATION SNOW RAIN MIX ALREADY HAS
BROKEN OUT ACROSS MAINLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST INTO THE NE
HIGHLANDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL SITES
THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND EVENTUALLY SQUEEZES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MT GAPS INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...THE LATTER LIKELY OCCURRING BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
THU. INCREASED GAP WIND EXPECTED AT ABQ AND SAF TAF SITES AS A
RESULT BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE MODERATE DURING THE REST OF THIS FCST
PERIOD. THE MAIN IMPACT DUE TO THE FRONT WILL BE LOWER CIGS/VIS
DUE TO INCREASED SNOWFALL. LVS/TCC WILL DROP DOWN INTO IFR/LIFR
STATUS BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z WITH LVS LIKELY SEEING THE LOWEST CIGS
AND VSBY AND SEEING IT SOONER THAN TCC. THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. ROW WILL MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 12Z. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SAF LATER TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE
EAST HALF OF NM TO VARY FROM IFR AND MVFR THU WITH LOWEST CIGS AND
VSBY AND PRECIP BETWEEN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE WEST EDGE OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS. MT OBSCURATIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN FROM ROUGHLY 01Z ON IN THE NORTH PORTION AND ROUGHLY 08Z
FARTHER SOUTH. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS FCST
PERIOD.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IMPACT
THE AREA. THE FIRST WILL COMBINE WITH A POTENT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TONIGHT INTO LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.
THE SECOND WILL BRING POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LAST SYSTEM WILL
POTENTIALLY BE THE STRONGEST AND LONGEST LASTING...BRINGING
POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME...WITH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY NOT
SEEING HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN UNTIL MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN WILL OFFER LITTLE BREAK FOR
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...SO ENJOY THE BRIEF
BREAK TODAY WHILE YOU CAN. RADAR IMAGES ALREADY INDICATE SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS THANKS TO A BIT OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE FIRST
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SITS OVER FAR SE UTAH AND WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY. A POTENT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AND PROVIDE MUCH COOLER AIR AND SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE
FLOW. THE FRONT AND DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SANGRES AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. ONE THING TO WATCH IS FRONTOGENSIS DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN TUCUMCARI AND NORTHERN CURRY COUNTY...WHICH MAY CREATE
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW IN THAT AREA AND RESULT IN HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST...BUT NOT COMPLETELY END OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AS THE SECOND DISTURBANCE IS RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE...AND UP TO 40
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NE.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SLIGHTLY FARTHER SW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...SHIFTING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION FOCUS TO CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SANDIAS AND SOUTHERN SANGRES...BUT MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM WILL SEE SOME SNOW. EXISTING WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MAY BE
EXTENDED AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW...OR FOLLOWING
SHIFTS MIGHT DEEM ENOUGH OF A LULL TO ISSUE SEPARATE HAZARDS FOR
THIS SECOND EVENT. EXPANSION OF WATCH IS POSSIBLE TOO...BUT WILL
LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS MAKE FINAL JUDGMENT. THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO
WILL BE TOUGHEST TO PEG...AS NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL GAP
WINDS...THOUGH SHALLOW...BATTLE POTENTIAL SNOW BANDING OVER THE
AREA. THE 12Z NAM SHOWED A STRONG BAND OVER THE METRO THAT WOULD
BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE FAIRLY SHALLOW EAST WIND LAYER...BUT THE
SUBSEQUENT 18Z RUN HAS A BAND FARTHER SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR EVENTUAL WARNING/ADVISORY
DECISION. AGAIN...WITH THIS DISTURBANCE QUICKLY EXITING EAST
FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY THE AFTERNOON...ONLY FOR THE
THIRD DISTURBANCE TO INITIATE SHOWERS AGAIN ACROSS W/NW NM FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY.

THE THIRD DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE STRONGEST...BECOMING A CLOSED
LOW OVER OREGON FRIDAY AND PRETTY MUCH REMAINING CLOSED AS IT DIGS
SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM WILL
KEEP GOOD FORCING OVER NW NM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEING FOCUSED OVER WESTERN NM. THE SYSTEM WILL
EJECT AND WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD EAST WITH IT. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE SW FLOW DRAGS WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE
AREA...EVIDENCED BY 700MB TEMPS NEAR FREEZING OVER ABQ SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SO RAIN WILL BE COMMON FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX HIGHER UP. HIGHS TEMPS WILL WARM AS WELL...THOUGH
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. JUST WHEN YOU THINK IT MIGHT BE
OVER...A FOURTH DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW RIGHT IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF
THE THIRD...AND KEEP SHOWERS GOING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE...FEET
OF SNOW WILL HAVE LIKELY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...MODELS SEEM TO AGREE
THAT SOME REPRIEVE FROM THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL COME LATE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THAT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DUE TO SEVERAL SYSTEM PASSAGES. SOME OF THE SYSTEMS WILL FAVOR
EASTERN AREAS LIKE THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM WHILE OTHERS WILL FAVOR
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ON THE FORECAST AREA AND
ESPECIALLY THE PLAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
TONIGHT. A PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS MOST OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND ADDITIONAL COLD AIR WILL RAPIDLY DESCEND ON
THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHEN THE WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL
START UP. THE COOLER AIR SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTN
GAPS...ESPECIALLY AT ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE...AND CREATE GUSTY GAP
WINDS LATER TONIGHT. IN ALL ACTUALITY...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
SEPARATION IN THE TWO CLIPPER WAVES AND BACK DOOR SURGES THAT OCCUR
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH
COOLER AIR EVEN FURTHER WEST AND ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS
FURTHER WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. VENTILATION ON THURSDAY WILL BE
PRETTY GOOD BUT LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE UNUSUALLY HIGH WITH A COOLER THAN NORMAL
AIRMASS.

THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE
WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES AIM ON THE STATE. THIS
LOW APPEARS TO BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME HIGHER
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS THE
WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE FAVORING
THE WESTERN/NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS SHOULD
BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME FOUND NEAR THE
SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. SIMILARLY FOR AREAS AROUND CHAMA AND THE NW
MTNS. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY
LIQUID WATER AMOUNTS. TYPE OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN VERSUS FREEZING
VERSUS SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY VARY SOME AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT
PERIOD.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SOMETIME ON MONDAY BUT ANOTHER PIECE OF THE
PACIFIC JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD TAKE AIM ON
THE STATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE PASSAGE WHICH MEANS A PRETTY SOLID
PHASING OF THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL LIFT DYNAMICS. THE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT ALSO MEANS LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
TREND BUT ECMWF/GFS LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM
IS AT LEAST MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY SOME.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK BASED ON
PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. HUMIDITY VALUES
WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ516-530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527>529-531-532.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-517>519-521>524.

&&

$$

33









000
FXUS65 KABQ 260020
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
520 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WX CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THROUGH THE EVE FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS ON EAST THROUGH THE NE PLAINS AND SE INTO THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A DOUBLE BARRELED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IMPACTS THESE
AREAS. SNOW AND SOME LOW ELEVATION SNOW RAIN MIX ALREADY HAS
BROKEN OUT ACROSS MAINLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST INTO THE NE
HIGHLANDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL SITES
THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND EVENTUALLY SQUEEZES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MT GAPS INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...THE LATTER LIKELY OCCURRING BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
THU. INCREASED GAP WIND EXPECTED AT ABQ AND SAF TAF SITES AS A
RESULT BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE MODERATE DURING THE REST OF THIS FCST
PERIOD. THE MAIN IMPACT DUE TO THE FRONT WILL BE LOWER CIGS/VIS
DUE TO INCREASED SNOWFALL. LVS/TCC WILL DROP DOWN INTO IFR/LIFR
STATUS BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z WITH LVS LIKELY SEEING THE LOWEST CIGS
AND VSBY AND SEEING IT SOONER THAN TCC. THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. ROW WILL MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 12Z. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SAF LATER TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE
EAST HALF OF NM TO VARY FROM IFR AND MVFR THU WITH LOWEST CIGS AND
VSBY AND PRECIP BETWEEN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE WEST EDGE OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS. MT OBSCURATIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN FROM ROUGHLY 01Z ON IN THE NORTH PORTION AND ROUGHLY 08Z
FARTHER SOUTH. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS FCST
PERIOD.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IMPACT
THE AREA. THE FIRST WILL COMBINE WITH A POTENT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TONIGHT INTO LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.
THE SECOND WILL BRING POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LAST SYSTEM WILL
POTENTIALLY BE THE STRONGEST AND LONGEST LASTING...BRINGING
POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME...WITH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY NOT
SEEING HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN UNTIL MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN WILL OFFER LITTLE BREAK FOR
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...SO ENJOY THE BRIEF
BREAK TODAY WHILE YOU CAN. RADAR IMAGES ALREADY INDICATE SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS THANKS TO A BIT OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE FIRST
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SITS OVER FAR SE UTAH AND WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY. A POTENT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AND PROVIDE MUCH COOLER AIR AND SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE
FLOW. THE FRONT AND DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SANGRES AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. ONE THING TO WATCH IS FRONTOGENSIS DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN TUCUMCARI AND NORTHERN CURRY COUNTY...WHICH MAY CREATE
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW IN THAT AREA AND RESULT IN HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST...BUT NOT COMPLETELY END OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AS THE SECOND DISTURBANCE IS RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE...AND UP TO 40
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NE.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SLIGHTLY FARTHER SW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...SHIFTING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION FOCUS TO CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SANDIAS AND SOUTHERN SANGRES...BUT MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM WILL SEE SOME SNOW. EXISTING WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MAY BE
EXTENDED AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW...OR FOLLOWING
SHIFTS MIGHT DEEM ENOUGH OF A LULL TO ISSUE SEPARATE HAZARDS FOR
THIS SECOND EVENT. EXPANSION OF WATCH IS POSSIBLE TOO...BUT WILL
LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS MAKE FINAL JUDGMENT. THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO
WILL BE TOUGHEST TO PEG...AS NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL GAP
WINDS...THOUGH SHALLOW...BATTLE POTENTIAL SNOW BANDING OVER THE
AREA. THE 12Z NAM SHOWED A STRONG BAND OVER THE METRO THAT WOULD
BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE FAIRLY SHALLOW EAST WIND LAYER...BUT THE
SUBSEQUENT 18Z RUN HAS A BAND FARTHER SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR EVENTUAL WARNING/ADVISORY
DECISION. AGAIN...WITH THIS DISTURBANCE QUICKLY EXITING EAST
FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY THE AFTERNOON...ONLY FOR THE
THIRD DISTURBANCE TO INITIATE SHOWERS AGAIN ACROSS W/NW NM FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY.

THE THIRD DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE STRONGEST...BECOMING A CLOSED
LOW OVER OREGON FRIDAY AND PRETTY MUCH REMAINING CLOSED AS IT DIGS
SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM WILL
KEEP GOOD FORCING OVER NW NM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEING FOCUSED OVER WESTERN NM. THE SYSTEM WILL
EJECT AND WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD EAST WITH IT. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE SW FLOW DRAGS WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE
AREA...EVIDENCED BY 700MB TEMPS NEAR FREEZING OVER ABQ SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SO RAIN WILL BE COMMON FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX HIGHER UP. HIGHS TEMPS WILL WARM AS WELL...THOUGH
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. JUST WHEN YOU THINK IT MIGHT BE
OVER...A FOURTH DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW RIGHT IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF
THE THIRD...AND KEEP SHOWERS GOING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE...FEET
OF SNOW WILL HAVE LIKELY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...MODELS SEEM TO AGREE
THAT SOME REPRIEVE FROM THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL COME LATE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THAT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DUE TO SEVERAL SYSTEM PASSAGES. SOME OF THE SYSTEMS WILL FAVOR
EASTERN AREAS LIKE THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM WHILE OTHERS WILL FAVOR
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ON THE FORECAST AREA AND
ESPECIALLY THE PLAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
TONIGHT. A PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS MOST OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND ADDITIONAL COLD AIR WILL RAPIDLY DESCEND ON
THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHEN THE WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL
START UP. THE COOLER AIR SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTN
GAPS...ESPECIALLY AT ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE...AND CREATE GUSTY GAP
WINDS LATER TONIGHT. IN ALL ACTUALITY...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
SEPARATION IN THE TWO CLIPPER WAVES AND BACK DOOR SURGES THAT OCCUR
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH
COOLER AIR EVEN FURTHER WEST AND ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS
FURTHER WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. VENTILATION ON THURSDAY WILL BE
PRETTY GOOD BUT LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE UNUSUALLY HIGH WITH A COOLER THAN NORMAL
AIRMASS.

THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE
WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES AIM ON THE STATE. THIS
LOW APPEARS TO BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME HIGHER
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS THE
WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE FAVORING
THE WESTERN/NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS SHOULD
BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME FOUND NEAR THE
SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. SIMILARLY FOR AREAS AROUND CHAMA AND THE NW
MTNS. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY
LIQUID WATER AMOUNTS. TYPE OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN VERSUS FREEZING
VERSUS SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY VARY SOME AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT
PERIOD.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SOMETIME ON MONDAY BUT ANOTHER PIECE OF THE
PACIFIC JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD TAKE AIM ON
THE STATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE PASSAGE WHICH MEANS A PRETTY SOLID
PHASING OF THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL LIFT DYNAMICS. THE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT ALSO MEANS LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
TREND BUT ECMWF/GFS LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM
IS AT LEAST MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY SOME.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK BASED ON
PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. HUMIDITY VALUES
WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ516-530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527>529-531-532.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-517>519-521>524.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 260020
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
520 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WX CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THROUGH THE EVE FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS ON EAST THROUGH THE NE PLAINS AND SE INTO THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A DOUBLE BARRELED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IMPACTS THESE
AREAS. SNOW AND SOME LOW ELEVATION SNOW RAIN MIX ALREADY HAS
BROKEN OUT ACROSS MAINLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST INTO THE NE
HIGHLANDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL SITES
THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND EVENTUALLY SQUEEZES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MT GAPS INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...THE LATTER LIKELY OCCURRING BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
THU. INCREASED GAP WIND EXPECTED AT ABQ AND SAF TAF SITES AS A
RESULT BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE MODERATE DURING THE REST OF THIS FCST
PERIOD. THE MAIN IMPACT DUE TO THE FRONT WILL BE LOWER CIGS/VIS
DUE TO INCREASED SNOWFALL. LVS/TCC WILL DROP DOWN INTO IFR/LIFR
STATUS BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z WITH LVS LIKELY SEEING THE LOWEST CIGS
AND VSBY AND SEEING IT SOONER THAN TCC. THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. ROW WILL MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 12Z. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SAF LATER TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE
EAST HALF OF NM TO VARY FROM IFR AND MVFR THU WITH LOWEST CIGS AND
VSBY AND PRECIP BETWEEN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE WEST EDGE OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS. MT OBSCURATIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN FROM ROUGHLY 01Z ON IN THE NORTH PORTION AND ROUGHLY 08Z
FARTHER SOUTH. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS FCST
PERIOD.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IMPACT
THE AREA. THE FIRST WILL COMBINE WITH A POTENT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TONIGHT INTO LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.
THE SECOND WILL BRING POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LAST SYSTEM WILL
POTENTIALLY BE THE STRONGEST AND LONGEST LASTING...BRINGING
POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME...WITH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY NOT
SEEING HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN UNTIL MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN WILL OFFER LITTLE BREAK FOR
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...SO ENJOY THE BRIEF
BREAK TODAY WHILE YOU CAN. RADAR IMAGES ALREADY INDICATE SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS THANKS TO A BIT OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE FIRST
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SITS OVER FAR SE UTAH AND WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY. A POTENT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AND PROVIDE MUCH COOLER AIR AND SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE
FLOW. THE FRONT AND DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SANGRES AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. ONE THING TO WATCH IS FRONTOGENSIS DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN TUCUMCARI AND NORTHERN CURRY COUNTY...WHICH MAY CREATE
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW IN THAT AREA AND RESULT IN HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST...BUT NOT COMPLETELY END OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AS THE SECOND DISTURBANCE IS RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE...AND UP TO 40
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NE.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SLIGHTLY FARTHER SW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...SHIFTING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION FOCUS TO CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SANDIAS AND SOUTHERN SANGRES...BUT MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM WILL SEE SOME SNOW. EXISTING WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MAY BE
EXTENDED AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW...OR FOLLOWING
SHIFTS MIGHT DEEM ENOUGH OF A LULL TO ISSUE SEPARATE HAZARDS FOR
THIS SECOND EVENT. EXPANSION OF WATCH IS POSSIBLE TOO...BUT WILL
LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS MAKE FINAL JUDGMENT. THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO
WILL BE TOUGHEST TO PEG...AS NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL GAP
WINDS...THOUGH SHALLOW...BATTLE POTENTIAL SNOW BANDING OVER THE
AREA. THE 12Z NAM SHOWED A STRONG BAND OVER THE METRO THAT WOULD
BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE FAIRLY SHALLOW EAST WIND LAYER...BUT THE
SUBSEQUENT 18Z RUN HAS A BAND FARTHER SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR EVENTUAL WARNING/ADVISORY
DECISION. AGAIN...WITH THIS DISTURBANCE QUICKLY EXITING EAST
FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY THE AFTERNOON...ONLY FOR THE
THIRD DISTURBANCE TO INITIATE SHOWERS AGAIN ACROSS W/NW NM FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY.

THE THIRD DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE STRONGEST...BECOMING A CLOSED
LOW OVER OREGON FRIDAY AND PRETTY MUCH REMAINING CLOSED AS IT DIGS
SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM WILL
KEEP GOOD FORCING OVER NW NM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEING FOCUSED OVER WESTERN NM. THE SYSTEM WILL
EJECT AND WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD EAST WITH IT. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE SW FLOW DRAGS WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE
AREA...EVIDENCED BY 700MB TEMPS NEAR FREEZING OVER ABQ SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SO RAIN WILL BE COMMON FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX HIGHER UP. HIGHS TEMPS WILL WARM AS WELL...THOUGH
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. JUST WHEN YOU THINK IT MIGHT BE
OVER...A FOURTH DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW RIGHT IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF
THE THIRD...AND KEEP SHOWERS GOING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE...FEET
OF SNOW WILL HAVE LIKELY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...MODELS SEEM TO AGREE
THAT SOME REPRIEVE FROM THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL COME LATE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THAT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DUE TO SEVERAL SYSTEM PASSAGES. SOME OF THE SYSTEMS WILL FAVOR
EASTERN AREAS LIKE THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM WHILE OTHERS WILL FAVOR
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ON THE FORECAST AREA AND
ESPECIALLY THE PLAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
TONIGHT. A PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS MOST OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND ADDITIONAL COLD AIR WILL RAPIDLY DESCEND ON
THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHEN THE WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL
START UP. THE COOLER AIR SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTN
GAPS...ESPECIALLY AT ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE...AND CREATE GUSTY GAP
WINDS LATER TONIGHT. IN ALL ACTUALITY...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
SEPARATION IN THE TWO CLIPPER WAVES AND BACK DOOR SURGES THAT OCCUR
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH
COOLER AIR EVEN FURTHER WEST AND ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS
FURTHER WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. VENTILATION ON THURSDAY WILL BE
PRETTY GOOD BUT LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE UNUSUALLY HIGH WITH A COOLER THAN NORMAL
AIRMASS.

THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE
WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES AIM ON THE STATE. THIS
LOW APPEARS TO BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME HIGHER
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS THE
WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE FAVORING
THE WESTERN/NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS SHOULD
BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME FOUND NEAR THE
SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. SIMILARLY FOR AREAS AROUND CHAMA AND THE NW
MTNS. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY
LIQUID WATER AMOUNTS. TYPE OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN VERSUS FREEZING
VERSUS SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY VARY SOME AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT
PERIOD.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SOMETIME ON MONDAY BUT ANOTHER PIECE OF THE
PACIFIC JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD TAKE AIM ON
THE STATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE PASSAGE WHICH MEANS A PRETTY SOLID
PHASING OF THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL LIFT DYNAMICS. THE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT ALSO MEANS LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
TREND BUT ECMWF/GFS LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM
IS AT LEAST MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY SOME.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK BASED ON
PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. HUMIDITY VALUES
WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ516-530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527>529-531-532.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-517>519-521>524.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 260020
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
520 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WX CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THROUGH THE EVE FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS ON EAST THROUGH THE NE PLAINS AND SE INTO THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A DOUBLE BARRELED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IMPACTS THESE
AREAS. SNOW AND SOME LOW ELEVATION SNOW RAIN MIX ALREADY HAS
BROKEN OUT ACROSS MAINLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST INTO THE NE
HIGHLANDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL SITES
THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND EVENTUALLY SQUEEZES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MT GAPS INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...THE LATTER LIKELY OCCURRING BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
THU. INCREASED GAP WIND EXPECTED AT ABQ AND SAF TAF SITES AS A
RESULT BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE MODERATE DURING THE REST OF THIS FCST
PERIOD. THE MAIN IMPACT DUE TO THE FRONT WILL BE LOWER CIGS/VIS
DUE TO INCREASED SNOWFALL. LVS/TCC WILL DROP DOWN INTO IFR/LIFR
STATUS BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z WITH LVS LIKELY SEEING THE LOWEST CIGS
AND VSBY AND SEEING IT SOONER THAN TCC. THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. ROW WILL MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 12Z. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SAF LATER TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE
EAST HALF OF NM TO VARY FROM IFR AND MVFR THU WITH LOWEST CIGS AND
VSBY AND PRECIP BETWEEN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE WEST EDGE OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS. MT OBSCURATIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN FROM ROUGHLY 01Z ON IN THE NORTH PORTION AND ROUGHLY 08Z
FARTHER SOUTH. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS FCST
PERIOD.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IMPACT
THE AREA. THE FIRST WILL COMBINE WITH A POTENT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TONIGHT INTO LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.
THE SECOND WILL BRING POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LAST SYSTEM WILL
POTENTIALLY BE THE STRONGEST AND LONGEST LASTING...BRINGING
POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME...WITH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY NOT
SEEING HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN UNTIL MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN WILL OFFER LITTLE BREAK FOR
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...SO ENJOY THE BRIEF
BREAK TODAY WHILE YOU CAN. RADAR IMAGES ALREADY INDICATE SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS THANKS TO A BIT OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE FIRST
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SITS OVER FAR SE UTAH AND WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY. A POTENT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AND PROVIDE MUCH COOLER AIR AND SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE
FLOW. THE FRONT AND DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SANGRES AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. ONE THING TO WATCH IS FRONTOGENSIS DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN TUCUMCARI AND NORTHERN CURRY COUNTY...WHICH MAY CREATE
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW IN THAT AREA AND RESULT IN HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST...BUT NOT COMPLETELY END OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AS THE SECOND DISTURBANCE IS RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE...AND UP TO 40
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NE.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SLIGHTLY FARTHER SW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...SHIFTING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION FOCUS TO CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SANDIAS AND SOUTHERN SANGRES...BUT MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM WILL SEE SOME SNOW. EXISTING WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MAY BE
EXTENDED AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW...OR FOLLOWING
SHIFTS MIGHT DEEM ENOUGH OF A LULL TO ISSUE SEPARATE HAZARDS FOR
THIS SECOND EVENT. EXPANSION OF WATCH IS POSSIBLE TOO...BUT WILL
LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS MAKE FINAL JUDGMENT. THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO
WILL BE TOUGHEST TO PEG...AS NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL GAP
WINDS...THOUGH SHALLOW...BATTLE POTENTIAL SNOW BANDING OVER THE
AREA. THE 12Z NAM SHOWED A STRONG BAND OVER THE METRO THAT WOULD
BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE FAIRLY SHALLOW EAST WIND LAYER...BUT THE
SUBSEQUENT 18Z RUN HAS A BAND FARTHER SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR EVENTUAL WARNING/ADVISORY
DECISION. AGAIN...WITH THIS DISTURBANCE QUICKLY EXITING EAST
FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY THE AFTERNOON...ONLY FOR THE
THIRD DISTURBANCE TO INITIATE SHOWERS AGAIN ACROSS W/NW NM FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY.

THE THIRD DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE STRONGEST...BECOMING A CLOSED
LOW OVER OREGON FRIDAY AND PRETTY MUCH REMAINING CLOSED AS IT DIGS
SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM WILL
KEEP GOOD FORCING OVER NW NM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEING FOCUSED OVER WESTERN NM. THE SYSTEM WILL
EJECT AND WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD EAST WITH IT. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE SW FLOW DRAGS WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE
AREA...EVIDENCED BY 700MB TEMPS NEAR FREEZING OVER ABQ SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SO RAIN WILL BE COMMON FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX HIGHER UP. HIGHS TEMPS WILL WARM AS WELL...THOUGH
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. JUST WHEN YOU THINK IT MIGHT BE
OVER...A FOURTH DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW RIGHT IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF
THE THIRD...AND KEEP SHOWERS GOING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE...FEET
OF SNOW WILL HAVE LIKELY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...MODELS SEEM TO AGREE
THAT SOME REPRIEVE FROM THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL COME LATE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THAT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DUE TO SEVERAL SYSTEM PASSAGES. SOME OF THE SYSTEMS WILL FAVOR
EASTERN AREAS LIKE THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM WHILE OTHERS WILL FAVOR
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ON THE FORECAST AREA AND
ESPECIALLY THE PLAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
TONIGHT. A PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS MOST OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND ADDITIONAL COLD AIR WILL RAPIDLY DESCEND ON
THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHEN THE WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL
START UP. THE COOLER AIR SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTN
GAPS...ESPECIALLY AT ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE...AND CREATE GUSTY GAP
WINDS LATER TONIGHT. IN ALL ACTUALITY...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
SEPARATION IN THE TWO CLIPPER WAVES AND BACK DOOR SURGES THAT OCCUR
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH
COOLER AIR EVEN FURTHER WEST AND ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS
FURTHER WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. VENTILATION ON THURSDAY WILL BE
PRETTY GOOD BUT LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE UNUSUALLY HIGH WITH A COOLER THAN NORMAL
AIRMASS.

THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE
WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES AIM ON THE STATE. THIS
LOW APPEARS TO BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME HIGHER
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS THE
WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE FAVORING
THE WESTERN/NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS SHOULD
BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME FOUND NEAR THE
SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. SIMILARLY FOR AREAS AROUND CHAMA AND THE NW
MTNS. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY
LIQUID WATER AMOUNTS. TYPE OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN VERSUS FREEZING
VERSUS SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY VARY SOME AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT
PERIOD.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SOMETIME ON MONDAY BUT ANOTHER PIECE OF THE
PACIFIC JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD TAKE AIM ON
THE STATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE PASSAGE WHICH MEANS A PRETTY SOLID
PHASING OF THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL LIFT DYNAMICS. THE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT ALSO MEANS LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
TREND BUT ECMWF/GFS LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM
IS AT LEAST MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY SOME.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK BASED ON
PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. HUMIDITY VALUES
WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ516-530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527>529-531-532.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-517>519-521>524.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 260020
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
520 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
WX CONDITIONS DETERIORATING THROUGH THE EVE FROM THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS ON EAST THROUGH THE NE PLAINS AND SE INTO THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS AS A DOUBLE BARRELED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IMPACTS THESE
AREAS. SNOW AND SOME LOW ELEVATION SNOW RAIN MIX ALREADY HAS
BROKEN OUT ACROSS MAINLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS EAST INTO THE NE
HIGHLANDS. WIND SPEEDS WILL DECREASE ACROSS WESTERN/CENTRAL SITES
THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT PLUNGES SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS
AND EVENTUALLY SQUEEZES THROUGH THE CENTRAL MT GAPS INTO THE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...THE LATTER LIKELY OCCURRING BETWEEN 07Z AND 11Z
THU. INCREASED GAP WIND EXPECTED AT ABQ AND SAF TAF SITES AS A
RESULT BUT SPEEDS SHOULD BE MODERATE DURING THE REST OF THIS FCST
PERIOD. THE MAIN IMPACT DUE TO THE FRONT WILL BE LOWER CIGS/VIS
DUE TO INCREASED SNOWFALL. LVS/TCC WILL DROP DOWN INTO IFR/LIFR
STATUS BETWEEN 01Z AND 05Z WITH LVS LIKELY SEEING THE LOWEST CIGS
AND VSBY AND SEEING IT SOONER THAN TCC. THAT WILL LAST THROUGH THE
MORNING HOURS. ROW WILL MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS
AFTER 12Z. MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AT SAF LATER TONIGHT. MUCH OF THE
EAST HALF OF NM TO VARY FROM IFR AND MVFR THU WITH LOWEST CIGS AND
VSBY AND PRECIP BETWEEN THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND THE WEST EDGE OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS. MT OBSCURATIONS LIKELY ACROSS THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN FROM ROUGHLY 01Z ON IN THE NORTH PORTION AND ROUGHLY 08Z
FARTHER SOUTH. WESTERN AREAS SHOULD REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS FCST
PERIOD.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 PM MST WED FEB 25 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE WINTER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT
THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IMPACT
THE AREA. THE FIRST WILL COMBINE WITH A POTENT BACKDOOR COLD FRONT
TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS TONIGHT INTO LATE THURSDAY
MORNING...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS FOR THE REST OF THE EASTERN PLAINS.
THE SECOND WILL BRING POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...IMPACTING MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE LAST SYSTEM WILL
POTENTIALLY BE THE STRONGEST AND LONGEST LASTING...BRINGING
POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN BELOW TO WELL BELOW NORMAL
THROUGHOUT THIS TIME...WITH PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST POTENTIALLY NOT
SEEING HIGHS ABOVE FREEZING AGAIN UNTIL MONDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A VERY ACTIVE WINTER WEATHER PATTERN WILL OFFER LITTLE BREAK FOR
THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK...SO ENJOY THE BRIEF
BREAK TODAY WHILE YOU CAN. RADAR IMAGES ALREADY INDICATE SHOWERS
BEGINNING TO DEVELOP ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
MOUNTAINS THANKS TO A BIT OF AFTERNOON INSTABILITY. THE FIRST
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY SITS OVER FAR SE UTAH AND WILL
BE THE FOCUS FOR ACTIVITY INTO THURSDAY. A POTENT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL SLIDE DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...AND PROVIDE MUCH COOLER AIR AND SIGNIFICANT UPSLOPE
FLOW. THE FRONT AND DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL ACROSS THE SANGRES AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS WITH LESSER
AMOUNTS ELSEWHERE. ONE THING TO WATCH IS FRONTOGENSIS DEVELOPMENT
BETWEEN TUCUMCARI AND NORTHERN CURRY COUNTY...WHICH MAY CREATE
HEAVIER BANDS OF SNOW IN THAT AREA AND RESULT IN HIGHER AMOUNTS.
SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS THURSDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES EAST...BUT NOT COMPLETELY END OVER THE MOUNTAINS
AS THE SECOND DISTURBANCE IS RIGHT ON THE HEELS OF THE FIRST.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE...AND UP TO 40
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE NE.

THE SECOND DISTURBANCE WILL DIG SLIGHTLY FARTHER SW THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...SHIFTING THE MAIN PRECIPITATION FOCUS TO CENTRAL NEW
MEXICO. HEAVIEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ALONG AND EAST OF THE
SANDIAS AND SOUTHERN SANGRES...BUT MUCH OF NORTH CENTRAL AND
EASTERN NM WILL SEE SOME SNOW. EXISTING WARNINGS/ADVISORIES MAY BE
EXTENDED AS A RESULT OF THE CONTINUATION OF THE SNOW...OR FOLLOWING
SHIFTS MIGHT DEEM ENOUGH OF A LULL TO ISSUE SEPARATE HAZARDS FOR
THIS SECOND EVENT. EXPANSION OF WATCH IS POSSIBLE TOO...BUT WILL
LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS MAKE FINAL JUDGMENT. THE ALBUQUERQUE METRO
WILL BE TOUGHEST TO PEG...AS NEAR ADVISORY LEVEL GAP
WINDS...THOUGH SHALLOW...BATTLE POTENTIAL SNOW BANDING OVER THE
AREA. THE 12Z NAM SHOWED A STRONG BAND OVER THE METRO THAT WOULD
BE ABLE TO OVERCOME THE FAIRLY SHALLOW EAST WIND LAYER...BUT THE
SUBSEQUENT 18Z RUN HAS A BAND FARTHER SOUTH AND NORTH OF THE AREA.
THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO MONITOR FOR EVENTUAL WARNING/ADVISORY
DECISION. AGAIN...WITH THIS DISTURBANCE QUICKLY EXITING EAST
FRIDAY...SHOWERS WILL TAPER OFF BY THE AFTERNOON...ONLY FOR THE
THIRD DISTURBANCE TO INITIATE SHOWERS AGAIN ACROSS W/NW NM FRIDAY
NIGHT. HIGHS FRIDAY WILL GENERALLY BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER THAN
THURSDAY.

THE THIRD DISTURBANCE WILL BE THE STRONGEST...BECOMING A CLOSED
LOW OVER OREGON FRIDAY AND PRETTY MUCH REMAINING CLOSED AS IT DIGS
SOUTH INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. SW FLOW AHEAD OF THAT SYSTEM WILL
KEEP GOOD FORCING OVER NW NM FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION CHANCES BEING FOCUSED OVER WESTERN NM. THE SYSTEM WILL
EJECT AND WEAKEN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY...AND PRECIPITATION WILL
SPREAD EAST WITH IT. SNOW LEVELS WILL INITIALLY BE HIGH WITH THIS
SYSTEM AS THE SW FLOW DRAGS WARMER AIR ALOFT TO THE
AREA...EVIDENCED BY 700MB TEMPS NEAR FREEZING OVER ABQ SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. SO RAIN WILL BE COMMON FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS WITH A
RAIN/SNOW MIX HIGHER UP. HIGHS TEMPS WILL WARM AS WELL...THOUGH
GENERALLY REMAIN BELOW NORMAL. JUST WHEN YOU THINK IT MIGHT BE
OVER...A FOURTH DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW RIGHT IN THE FOOTSTEPS OF
THE THIRD...AND KEEP SHOWERS GOING FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NM THROUGH THURSDAY. AFTER IT IS ALL SAID AND DONE...FEET
OF SNOW WILL HAVE LIKELY FALLEN OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THURSDAY. FORTUNATELY...MODELS SEEM TO AGREE
THAT SOME REPRIEVE FROM THIS ACTIVE PATTERN WILL COME LATE NEXT
WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND...THOUGH THAT IS SUBJECT TO CHANGE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
STILL LOOKS VERY UNSETTLED THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK
DUE TO SEVERAL SYSTEM PASSAGES. SOME OF THE SYSTEMS WILL FAVOR
EASTERN AREAS LIKE THE NEAR TERM SYSTEM WHILE OTHERS WILL FAVOR
WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS.

NEXT STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY BEARING DOWN ON THE FORECAST AREA AND
ESPECIALLY THE PLAINS AND EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTO
TONIGHT. A PREFRONTAL WIND SHIFT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED ACROSS MOST OF
THE EASTERN PLAINS AND ADDITIONAL COLD AIR WILL RAPIDLY DESCEND ON
THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. THIS IS WHEN THE WETTING PRECIPITATION WILL
START UP. THE COOLER AIR SHOULD PUSH THROUGH THE CENTRAL MTN
GAPS...ESPECIALLY AT ALBUQUERQUE AND SANTA FE...AND CREATE GUSTY GAP
WINDS LATER TONIGHT. IN ALL ACTUALITY...THERE WILL BE VERY LITTLE
SEPARATION IN THE TWO CLIPPER WAVES AND BACK DOOR SURGES THAT OCCUR
THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY SYSTEM SHOULD PUSH
COOLER AIR EVEN FURTHER WEST AND ALLOW FOR SOME ACCUMULATIONS
FURTHER WEST OF THE CENTRAL MTNS. VENTILATION ON THURSDAY WILL BE
PRETTY GOOD BUT LOWER ON FRIDAY THANKS TO LOWER MIXING HEIGHTS.
HUMIDITY VALUES WILL BE UNUSUALLY HIGH WITH A COOLER THAN NORMAL
AIRMASS.

THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TOWARDS WESTERN/CENTRAL AREAS DURING THE
WEEKEND AS A MORE POWERFUL PACIFIC LOW TAKES AIM ON THE STATE. THIS
LOW APPEARS TO BE SLOW MOVING AND SHOULD TAP INTO SOME HIGHER
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE. SNOW LEVELS WILL EVENTUALLY RISE AS THE
WARMER/MORE MOIST AIR FLOWS UP OVER THE STATE. OROGRAPHIC LIFT ALONG
THE MOUNTAINS SHOULD PROVIDE BENEFICIAL WETTING MOISTURE FAVORING
THE WESTERN/NORTHERN MTNS. THE NE HIGHLANDS AND PLAINS SHOULD
BENEFIT FROM MOIST AIR FLOWING OVER A COOLER DOME FOUND NEAR THE
SURFACE. HUMIDITY VALUES WILL REMAIN QUITE HIGH ALTHOUGH
TEMPERATURES WILL MODIFY SOME. HIGH TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN BELOW NORMAL
HOWEVER. AREAS FOUND ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WESTWARD SHOULD DO
REALLY...REALLY WELL. SIMILARLY FOR AREAS AROUND CHAMA AND THE NW
MTNS. CONFIDENCE FOR THE WEEKEND EVENT IS QUITE HIGH...ESPECIALLY
LIQUID WATER AMOUNTS. TYPE OF PRECIPITATION...RAIN VERSUS FREEZING
VERSUS SNOW WILL MOST LIKELY VARY SOME AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT
PERIOD.

THE SYSTEM SHOULD WEAKEN SOMETIME ON MONDAY BUT ANOTHER PIECE OF THE
PACIFIC JET STREAM AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE AREA SHOULD TAKE AIM ON
THE STATE TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS
PROJECTED AHEAD OF THIS WAVE PASSAGE WHICH MEANS A PRETTY SOLID
PHASING OF THE UPPER AND LOWER LEVEL LIFT DYNAMICS. THE BACK DOOR
COLD FRONT ALSO MEANS LOWERING SNOW LEVELS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
TREND BUT ECMWF/GFS LOOK PRETTY SIMILAR. CONFIDENCE FOR THIS SYSTEM
IS AT LEAST MODERATE ALTHOUGH DETAILS WOULD MOST LIKELY VARY SOME.
VENTILATION LOOKS TO BE PRETTY GOOD EARLY NEXT WEEK BASED ON
PROJECTED HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS. HUMIDITY VALUES
WOULD REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ516-530-533>535.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL NOON MST THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ512>515-527>529-531-532.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON
FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510-511-517>519-521>524.

&&

$$







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