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000
FXUS65 KABQ 312120
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
320 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER THE AREA. TODAY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE STORMS ARE INITIATING. THESE STORMS
WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE NEW STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A BRIEF UPTICK
IN STORMS IS EXPECTED IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA...AND ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND A WEAKNESS IN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE ROBUST
MOISTURE TO BE EXPLOITED...AND CONSEQUENTLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE STRETCH OF STORMS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
BOUTS OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS BETWEEN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES POOLING AND
UNDULATING OVER A LARGE CENTRAL SWATH OF NM. THIS WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST VERY CHALLENGING...TRYING TO PINPOINT FLASH FLOODING
THREAT WITH SUCH HIGH VARIABILITY ON ANTECEDENT RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS ALONG WITH EVOLVING STORM MOTIONS/TRACKS. BACK
DOOR FRONT HAS BEEN A CATALYST FOR STORMS IN WESTERN NM THUS FAR
WITH NEW STORMS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. STORMS
HAVE BEEN LESS ORGANIZED AND SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS.

A SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST...MOSTLY TODAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING...OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. BULK SHEAR IS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS AS SURFACE WINDS HOLD A SOUTH SOUTHEAST COMPONENT
THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT PREVAIL. THE
STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY FAST-PACED IN THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE STRONGER NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT
RESIDE...BUT OVER THE GILA AND SURROUNDING AREAS THE MOTION DROPS
OFF TO ALMOST NOTHING. THIS WILL BE A PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR
FLASH FLOODING BASED ON THE SLUGGISH MOTION...BUT AREAS WITHIN THE
EXISTING WATCH ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL OF SEEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS
WELL. LOCAL WRF/SPC SSEO/HRRR MODELS ALL POINT TO HEFTY STORMS
ROLLING INTO TORRANCE/GUADALUPE COUNTIES...SO THIS AREA WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL PEG MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AGAIN FRIDAY...NAMELY FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND THIS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND SLOW DOWN STORM MOTIONS...ADDING TO THE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
COLORADO. THIS COULD SPAWN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
NORTHEASTERN NM...MOSTLY IN THE HIGHLANDS. THE REMAINING EAST
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE WITH LI`S OF
1 TO 2 C...AND WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY INITIATING STORMS.

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NM BEGINS TO FALL BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES...A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL LOW OVER THE UPPER GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND THE EXITING NORTHWEST FLOW INTO TX/OK AND REMAINING
PLAINS AREAS...ESSENTIALLY WEAKENED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT. PWATS WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH SLOW NORTHBOUND STORM
MOTIONS THAT WILL ALLOW SEEPAGE OF DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.
OVERALL THE NEXT THREE DAYS WILL BE BUSY AND WET WITH DAY-TO-DAY
FORECAST REFINEMENTS NECESSARY TO PINPOINT FLASH FLOODING THREAT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL LOW/TROUGH APPEARS TO DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY LAYING OVER INTO CO AND NORTHERN NM BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS COULD NARROW THE CHANNEL OR PLUME OF
MOISTURE SOME...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO
AVERAGE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WET PATTERN TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED OVER
CENTRAL AZ TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL BE THE PREVAILING
PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME
ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO ALLOWING THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE TO BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AS AT LEAST ONE OR
MORE DISTURBANCES TRACK NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONSEQUENTLY A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CONTDVD...AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS
WELL AS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS
TONIGHT...AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST PLAINS MAY SEE MORE
ACTIVITY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INVADES THAT REGION. SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE AS WELL
FOR MOST AREAS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY BE
RELATIVELY STABLE WITH A DEARTH OF STORMS...WHILE THE WEST AND
CENTRAL LOOK TO BE FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN.

OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXCELLENT INTO NEXT
WEEK. SLIGHT DRYING MAY OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN THE
WEST...BUT RIGHT NOW MIN RH VALUES HOVER NEAR 20 PERCENT IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND IN PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SO NOT
GETTING INTO THE CRITICAL RANGE...AND WINDS DON/T APPEAR TO BE
ANYWHERE NEAR THE THRESHOLD EITHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE
SO FAR BELOW BY NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. VENTILATION MAY BE
POOR THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FRIDAY...AND POOR IN
LOCALIZED AREAS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY.

A STRONGER TROUGH MAY ATTEMPT TO SQUASH THE RIDGE...OR BREAK
UNDERNEATH IT...MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...THEREFORE THE SLIGHT DRYING
TREND IN DAYTIME HUMIDITIES. HOW EXTENDED MODELS HANDLE THIS FEATURE
IS A BIG QUESTION...WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING BACK TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WE/VE BEEN UNDER FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER. IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN STORMS FOR SOME
AREAS...BUT NOT ALL.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL AZ TO SOUTH CENTRAL NM
WITH GENLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY GRADIENT TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION. AREAS MVFR
CIGS WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR OBSCURING TERRAIN
FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TO THE TX BORDER TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH 22Z. BEST INSTAB BEFORE 00Z TO EXIST
OVER WRN NM...WHERE SCT TSRA SFC WND GUSTS TO 40KTS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND OCCASIONALLY OBSCURE MTS. STEERING FLOW WOULD TAKE
THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AFT 21Z. TSRA/SHRA MAY
POSSIBLY ADVECT/DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST AFT 00Z...AND
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR AFT 03Z EAST SLOPES
CENTRAL MT CHAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  62  87  62  86 /  20  30  20  20
DULCE...........................  51  81  51  82 /  40  50  40  40
CUBA............................  55  79  53  76 /  50  60  50  40
GALLUP..........................  58  84  58  81 /  30  40  40  30
EL MORRO........................  54  76  53  73 /  50  60  50  40
GRANTS..........................  56  79  55  76 /  60  50  50  40
QUEMADO.........................  57  76  56  74 /  50  50  40  40
GLENWOOD........................  59  83  57  80 /  30  40  50  50
CHAMA...........................  47  74  45  76 /  50  70  60  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  56  72  54  71 /  60  60  60  50
PECOS...........................  54  68  51  67 /  80  70  70  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  51  71  49  72 /  50  70  60  50
RED RIVER.......................  42  63  42  61 /  50  80  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  43  67  43  65 /  50  70  70  60
TAOS............................  51  73  50  72 /  50  60  50  40
MORA............................  51  68  48  66 /  60  70  60  60
ESPANOLA........................  57  77  57  78 /  50  40  50  30
SANTA FE........................  57  72  55  72 /  60  60  60  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  57  75  56  75 /  60  50  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  78  61  76 /  60  50  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  81  63  78 /  50  40  50  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  82  59  80 /  40  40  50  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  84  60  80 /  40  40  50  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  63  83  62  79 /  40  40  50  30
RIO RANCHO......................  64  84  62  82 /  40  40  40  30
SOCORRO.........................  66  85  63  82 /  50  40  50  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  77  55  74 /  60  60  60  50
TIJERAS.........................  59  77  57  75 /  60  60  60  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  79  54  77 /  80  60  60  60
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  72  54  69 /  80  60  60  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  75  57  72 /  60  60  60  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  79  60  78 /  50  50  50  40
RUIDOSO.........................  52  72  50  71 /  50  70  60  60
CAPULIN.........................  55  67  52  69 /  50  60  70  50
RATON...........................  56  71  55  73 /  60  50  60  40
SPRINGER........................  56  72  57  73 /  60  50  60  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  53  70  52  68 /  60  60  60  60
CLAYTON.........................  58  76  59  78 /  20  20  60  20
ROY.............................  58  71  58  70 /  50  50  70  40
CONCHAS.........................  62  79  61  76 /  30  40  50  30
SANTA ROSA......................  62  78  59  75 /  40  50  50  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  62  80  61  78 /  20  20  40  20
CLOVIS..........................  59  77  59  76 /  10  20  20  20
PORTALES........................  60  80  61  79 /  10  20  10  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  78  63  76 /  30  30  40  30
ROSWELL.........................  67  83  65  82 /  30  20  30  30
PICACHO.........................  63  77  60  74 /  50  50  50  40
ELK.............................  58  72  55  70 /  60  70  60  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-506>509-511-512-514-515-518-521>523-529.

&&

$$

52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 312120
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
320 PM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LINGERS
OVER THE AREA. TODAY A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS STALLED NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...WHERE STORMS ARE INITIATING. THESE STORMS
WILL SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE NEW STORMS
DEVELOP ALONG AND NEAR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. A BRIEF UPTICK
IN STORMS IS EXPECTED IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO FRIDAY AS A WEAK
DISTURBANCE ALOFT MOVES OVER THE AREA...AND ELSEWHERE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND A WEAKNESS IN HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL ALLOW THE ROBUST
MOISTURE TO BE EXPLOITED...AND CONSEQUENTLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE COMMON...ESPECIALLY FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ACTIVE STRETCH OF STORMS EXPECTED TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH
BOUTS OF ABOVE NORMAL PWATS BETWEEN 1 TO 1.5 INCHES POOLING AND
UNDULATING OVER A LARGE CENTRAL SWATH OF NM. THIS WILL MAKE THE
FORECAST VERY CHALLENGING...TRYING TO PINPOINT FLASH FLOODING
THREAT WITH SUCH HIGH VARIABILITY ON ANTECEDENT RAINFALL OVER THE
PAST FEW DAYS ALONG WITH EVOLVING STORM MOTIONS/TRACKS. BACK
DOOR FRONT HAS BEEN A CATALYST FOR STORMS IN WESTERN NM THUS FAR
WITH NEW STORMS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. STORMS
HAVE BEEN LESS ORGANIZED AND SLOW TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS/HIGHLANDS.

A SEVERE THREAT WILL ALSO EXIST...MOSTLY TODAY AND THROUGH THE
EVENING...OVER AND JUST EAST OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. BULK SHEAR IS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR A FEW
SUPERCELLS AS SURFACE WINDS HOLD A SOUTH SOUTHEAST COMPONENT
THROUGH THE EVENING WHILE NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ALOFT PREVAIL. THE
STORM MOTION IS FAIRLY FAST-PACED IN THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA WHERE THE STRONGER NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT
RESIDE...BUT OVER THE GILA AND SURROUNDING AREAS THE MOTION DROPS
OFF TO ALMOST NOTHING. THIS WILL BE A PRIMARY AREA OF CONCERN FOR
FLASH FLOODING BASED ON THE SLUGGISH MOTION...BUT AREAS WITHIN THE
EXISTING WATCH ALSO HAVE POTENTIAL OF SEEING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AS
WELL. LOCAL WRF/SPC SSEO/HRRR MODELS ALL POINT TO HEFTY STORMS
ROLLING INTO TORRANCE/GUADALUPE COUNTIES...SO THIS AREA WILL NEED
TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE EVENING.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS WILL PEG MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
AGAIN FRIDAY...NAMELY FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. NORTHWESTERLIES ALOFT WILL WEAKEN AND THIS WILL
BEGIN TO SHIFT AND SLOW DOWN STORM MOTIONS...ADDING TO THE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THREAT. ANOTHER FEATURE OF INTEREST WILL BE
A POTENTIAL SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT WILL DIVE SOUTHEAST OUT OF
COLORADO. THIS COULD SPAWN ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS IN
NORTHEASTERN NM...MOSTLY IN THE HIGHLANDS. THE REMAINING EAST
CENTRAL TO SOUTHEASTERN PLAINS WILL BE FAIRLY STABLE WITH LI`S OF
1 TO 2 C...AND WILL HAVE DIFFICULTY INITIATING STORMS.

ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NM BEGINS TO FALL BETWEEN UPPER LEVEL
FEATURES...A DEVELOPING SUBTROPICAL LOW OVER THE UPPER GULF OF
CALIFORNIA AND THE EXITING NORTHWEST FLOW INTO TX/OK AND REMAINING
PLAINS AREAS...ESSENTIALLY WEAKENED HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE LAND OF
ENCHANTMENT. PWATS WILL BE QUITE HIGH WITH SLOW NORTHBOUND STORM
MOTIONS THAT WILL ALLOW SEEPAGE OF DEEPER SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE.
OVERALL THE NEXT THREE DAYS WILL BE BUSY AND WET WITH DAY-TO-DAY
FORECAST REFINEMENTS NECESSARY TO PINPOINT FLASH FLOODING THREAT.

THE AFOREMENTIONED SUBTROPICAL LOW/TROUGH APPEARS TO DRIFT
NORTHEASTWARD...POSSIBLY LAYING OVER INTO CO AND NORTHERN NM BY
MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THIS COULD NARROW THE CHANNEL OR PLUME OF
MOISTURE SOME...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO
AVERAGE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WET PATTERN TO PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WITH THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED OVER
CENTRAL AZ TO SOUTH CENTRAL NEW MEXICO WILL BE THE PREVAILING
PATTERN THROUGH FRIDAY. THEREAFTER THE RIDGE AXIS WILL BECOME
ORIENTED NORTH TO SOUTH OVER NEW MEXICO ALLOWING THE PLUME OF
MOISTURE TO BE LOCATED OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO...AS AT LEAST ONE OR
MORE DISTURBANCES TRACK NORTH AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
RIDGE. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE REINFORCED OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS AND INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY NIGHT...CONSEQUENTLY A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF LOW LEVEL
UPSLOPE FLOW AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CONTDVD...AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...WILL BE POSSIBLE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WHICH
COULD LEAD TO FLOODING WILL REMAIN A CONCERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL BE ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS
WELL AS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS
TONIGHT...AND INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NORTHEAST PLAINS MAY SEE MORE
ACTIVITY BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE INVADES THAT REGION. SATURDAY WILL BE QUITE ACTIVE AS WELL
FOR MOST AREAS. SUNDAY INTO MONDAY THE EASTERN PLAINS MAY BE
RELATIVELY STABLE WITH A DEARTH OF STORMS...WHILE THE WEST AND
CENTRAL LOOK TO BE FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN.

OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE EXCELLENT INTO NEXT
WEEK. SLIGHT DRYING MAY OCCUR BY THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN THE
WEST...BUT RIGHT NOW MIN RH VALUES HOVER NEAR 20 PERCENT IN THE FAR
NORTHWEST AND IN PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE RIO GRANDE VALLEY SO NOT
GETTING INTO THE CRITICAL RANGE...AND WINDS DON/T APPEAR TO BE
ANYWHERE NEAR THE THRESHOLD EITHER. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...ALTHOUGH NOT QUITE
SO FAR BELOW BY NEXT TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. VENTILATION MAY BE
POOR THROUGH MUCH OF CENTRAL NEW MEXICO FRIDAY...AND POOR IN
LOCALIZED AREAS SATURDAY INTO TUESDAY.

A STRONGER TROUGH MAY ATTEMPT TO SQUASH THE RIDGE...OR BREAK
UNDERNEATH IT...MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK...THEREFORE THE SLIGHT DRYING
TREND IN DAYTIME HUMIDITIES. HOW EXTENDED MODELS HANDLE THIS FEATURE
IS A BIG QUESTION...WITH THE ECMWF TRENDING BACK TOWARDS THE
NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WE/VE BEEN UNDER FOR MUCH OF THE SUMMER. IT
LOOKS LIKE THERE MIGHT BE A SLIGHT DOWNTICK IN STORMS FOR SOME
AREAS...BUT NOT ALL.

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL AZ TO SOUTH CENTRAL NM
WITH GENLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY GRADIENT TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION. AREAS MVFR
CIGS WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR OBSCURING TERRAIN
FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TO THE TX BORDER TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH 22Z. BEST INSTAB BEFORE 00Z TO EXIST
OVER WRN NM...WHERE SCT TSRA SFC WND GUSTS TO 40KTS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND OCCASIONALLY OBSCURE MTS. STEERING FLOW WOULD TAKE
THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AFT 21Z. TSRA/SHRA MAY
POSSIBLY ADVECT/DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST AFT 00Z...AND
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR AFT 03Z EAST SLOPES
CENTRAL MT CHAIN.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  62  87  62  86 /  20  30  20  20
DULCE...........................  51  81  51  82 /  40  50  40  40
CUBA............................  55  79  53  76 /  50  60  50  40
GALLUP..........................  58  84  58  81 /  30  40  40  30
EL MORRO........................  54  76  53  73 /  50  60  50  40
GRANTS..........................  56  79  55  76 /  60  50  50  40
QUEMADO.........................  57  76  56  74 /  50  50  40  40
GLENWOOD........................  59  83  57  80 /  30  40  50  50
CHAMA...........................  47  74  45  76 /  50  70  60  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  56  72  54  71 /  60  60  60  50
PECOS...........................  54  68  51  67 /  80  70  70  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  51  71  49  72 /  50  70  60  50
RED RIVER.......................  42  63  42  61 /  50  80  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  43  67  43  65 /  50  70  70  60
TAOS............................  51  73  50  72 /  50  60  50  40
MORA............................  51  68  48  66 /  60  70  60  60
ESPANOLA........................  57  77  57  78 /  50  40  50  30
SANTA FE........................  57  72  55  72 /  60  60  60  50
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  57  75  56  75 /  60  50  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  78  61  76 /  60  50  50  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  81  63  78 /  50  40  50  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  82  59  80 /  40  40  50  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  84  60  80 /  40  40  50  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  63  83  62  79 /  40  40  50  30
RIO RANCHO......................  64  84  62  82 /  40  40  40  30
SOCORRO.........................  66  85  63  82 /  50  40  50  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  59  77  55  74 /  60  60  60  50
TIJERAS.........................  59  77  57  75 /  60  60  60  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  57  79  54  77 /  80  60  60  60
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  72  54  69 /  80  60  60  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  75  57  72 /  60  60  60  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  62  79  60  78 /  50  50  50  40
RUIDOSO.........................  52  72  50  71 /  50  70  60  60
CAPULIN.........................  55  67  52  69 /  50  60  70  50
RATON...........................  56  71  55  73 /  60  50  60  40
SPRINGER........................  56  72  57  73 /  60  50  60  40
LAS VEGAS.......................  53  70  52  68 /  60  60  60  60
CLAYTON.........................  58  76  59  78 /  20  20  60  20
ROY.............................  58  71  58  70 /  50  50  70  40
CONCHAS.........................  62  79  61  76 /  30  40  50  30
SANTA ROSA......................  62  78  59  75 /  40  50  50  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  62  80  61  78 /  20  20  40  20
CLOVIS..........................  59  77  59  76 /  10  20  20  20
PORTALES........................  60  80  61  79 /  10  20  10  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  64  78  63  76 /  30  30  40  30
ROSWELL.........................  67  83  65  82 /  30  20  30  30
PICACHO.........................  63  77  60  74 /  50  50  50  40
ELK.............................  58  72  55  70 /  60  70  60  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-506>509-511-512-514-515-518-521>523-529.

&&

$$

52





000
FXUS65 KABQ 311732
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1132 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL AZ TO SOUTH CENTRAL NM
WITH GENLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY GRADIENT TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION. AREAS MVFR
CIGS WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR OBSCURING TERRAIN
FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TO THE TX BORDER TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH 22Z. BEST INSTAB BEFORE 00Z TO EXIST
OVER WRN NM...WHERE SCT TSRA SFC WND GUSTS TO 40KTS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND OCCASIONALLY OBSCURE MTS. STEERING FLOW WOULD TAKE
THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AFT 21Z. TSRA/SHRA MAY
POSSIBLY ADVECT/DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST AFT 00Z...AND
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR AFT 03Z EAST SLOPES
CENTRAL MT CHAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...747 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.UPDATE...
WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...AND A SLOW MOVING
DISTURBANCE SINKING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO...WE
RECONSIDERED THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. ANTECEDENT MOISTURE IS
PRESENT IN PLACES LIKE WESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY AND ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FELL
YESTERDAY. FURTHER...THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS HAD SOME RAIN
OVERNIGHT...SO PLACES LIKE THE WHITE WATER BALDY BURN SCAR SHOULD
PRODUCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS TODAY.

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SOUTH OF THE RIO CHAMA...AND
ALSO FOR THE SOUTHERN SANGRES...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS. SINCE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...ADDED THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND SANTA
FE AREA...TOO. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...SINCE THEY ARE STARTING
OFF WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. WESTERN STORMS SHOULD ALSO BENEFIT FROM
SOME RESIDUAL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW LINGERING FROM YESTERDAYS
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. IN CONTRAST...THE UPSLOPE FLOW...ASSOCIATED
LOW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL SLOW
THE START OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DO AGREE ON SOME QPF BULLS EYES HERE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...APPARENTLY KEYING ON SOME LATE DAY HEATING
AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING FORCING ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE OVER CO.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE NORTHERN
SANGRE DE CRISTOS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS/HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE DISSIPATION OF LOW
CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGERING FROM LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...348 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO STREAM
NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AS A
SUBTROPICAL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEST OF NEW MEXICO...THEN
EASTWARD NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. EXCEPT
FOR SOME NEAR NORMAL READINGS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY VARY FROM A FEW TO 14
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY...BUT COULDNT
MUSTER ENOUGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT HOW COOL IT WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ABOUT THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST AREAS WELL INTO THE DAY. POST FRONTAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 60S TO MID 70S TODAY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...WHERE MODELS ARE GENERALLY
AGREEING ON SOME OF THE BETTER QPF. CHATTED WITH NWS PUEBLO AND WE
DECIDED TO LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-ASSESS THE SITUATION BASED ON THE EROSION
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND UPDATED MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE SUN...WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS THERE. THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING MAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS A SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER
TO NE NEW MEXICO FROM N COLORADO IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM SW OF NM TODAY TO NORTHERN
NM AND CO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF CA. AFTER THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME CROSSES THIS WEEKEND...SOME DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
OVER NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BASE OF THE WAVE AS THE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE DOWNTICK IN CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THOUGH
THERE SHOULD STILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CELLS AROUND. MODELS
THEN DEPICT THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NE
NM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...WILL DRIFT ABOUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AN ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND. THUS...WETTING RAIN IS A GOOD BET FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PLATEAU LEAST FAVORED. EARLY NEXT...WETTING
RAIN LOOKS TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EAST BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND POSSIBLY A BACK DOOR
FRONT INTO THE EAST COULD SHIFT THE FOCUS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR TO FAIR MOST AREAS TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME WEST WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...
VENTILATION RATES IMPROVE ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS ALL
ZONES BY SUNDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-506>508-511-512-514-515-518-521>523-529.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 311732
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1132 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER RIDGE AXIS STRETCHED FROM CENTRAL AZ TO SOUTH CENTRAL NM
WITH GENLY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NM.
LOW LEVEL EASTERLY GRADIENT TO PERSIST OVER THE REGION. AREAS MVFR
CIGS WITH ISOLD EMBEDDED IFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR OBSCURING TERRAIN
FROM THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN TO THE TX BORDER TO
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THROUGH 22Z. BEST INSTAB BEFORE 00Z TO EXIST
OVER WRN NM...WHERE SCT TSRA SFC WND GUSTS TO 40KTS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND OCCASIONALLY OBSCURE MTS. STEERING FLOW WOULD TAKE
THIS ACTIVITY INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AFT 21Z. TSRA/SHRA MAY
POSSIBLY ADVECT/DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST AFT 00Z...AND
EXPECT REDEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS IN BR AFT 03Z EAST SLOPES
CENTRAL MT CHAIN.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...747 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.UPDATE...
WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...AND A SLOW MOVING
DISTURBANCE SINKING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO...WE
RECONSIDERED THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. ANTECEDENT MOISTURE IS
PRESENT IN PLACES LIKE WESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY AND ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FELL
YESTERDAY. FURTHER...THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS HAD SOME RAIN
OVERNIGHT...SO PLACES LIKE THE WHITE WATER BALDY BURN SCAR SHOULD
PRODUCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS TODAY.

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SOUTH OF THE RIO CHAMA...AND
ALSO FOR THE SOUTHERN SANGRES...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS. SINCE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...ADDED THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND SANTA
FE AREA...TOO. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...SINCE THEY ARE STARTING
OFF WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. WESTERN STORMS SHOULD ALSO BENEFIT FROM
SOME RESIDUAL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW LINGERING FROM YESTERDAYS
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. IN CONTRAST...THE UPSLOPE FLOW...ASSOCIATED
LOW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL SLOW
THE START OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DO AGREE ON SOME QPF BULLS EYES HERE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...APPARENTLY KEYING ON SOME LATE DAY HEATING
AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING FORCING ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE OVER CO.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE NORTHERN
SANGRE DE CRISTOS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS/HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE DISSIPATION OF LOW
CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGERING FROM LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...348 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO STREAM
NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AS A
SUBTROPICAL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEST OF NEW MEXICO...THEN
EASTWARD NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. EXCEPT
FOR SOME NEAR NORMAL READINGS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY VARY FROM A FEW TO 14
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY...BUT COULDNT
MUSTER ENOUGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT HOW COOL IT WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ABOUT THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST AREAS WELL INTO THE DAY. POST FRONTAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 60S TO MID 70S TODAY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...WHERE MODELS ARE GENERALLY
AGREEING ON SOME OF THE BETTER QPF. CHATTED WITH NWS PUEBLO AND WE
DECIDED TO LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-ASSESS THE SITUATION BASED ON THE EROSION
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND UPDATED MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE SUN...WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS THERE. THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING MAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS A SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER
TO NE NEW MEXICO FROM N COLORADO IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM SW OF NM TODAY TO NORTHERN
NM AND CO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF CA. AFTER THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME CROSSES THIS WEEKEND...SOME DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
OVER NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BASE OF THE WAVE AS THE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE DOWNTICK IN CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THOUGH
THERE SHOULD STILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CELLS AROUND. MODELS
THEN DEPICT THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NE
NM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...WILL DRIFT ABOUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AN ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND. THUS...WETTING RAIN IS A GOOD BET FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PLATEAU LEAST FAVORED. EARLY NEXT...WETTING
RAIN LOOKS TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EAST BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND POSSIBLY A BACK DOOR
FRONT INTO THE EAST COULD SHIFT THE FOCUS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR TO FAIR MOST AREAS TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME WEST WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...
VENTILATION RATES IMPROVE ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS ALL
ZONES BY SUNDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ504-506>508-511-512-514-515-518-521>523-529.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 311347 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
747 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...AND A SLOW MOVING
DISTURBANCE SINKING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO...WE
RECONSIDERED THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. ANTECEDENT MOISTURE IS
PRESENT IN PLACES LIKE WESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY AND ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FELL
YESTERDAY. FURTHER...THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS HAD SOME RAIN
OVERNIGHT...SO PLACES LIKE THE WHITE WATER BALDY BURN SCAR SHOULD
PRODUCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS TODAY.

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SOUTH OF THE RIO CHAMA...AND
ALSO FOR THE SOUTHERN SANGRES...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS. SINCE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...ADDED THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND SANTA
FE AREA...TOO. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...SINCE THEY ARE STARTING
OFF WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. WESTERN STORMS SHOULD ALSO BENEFIT FROM
SOME RESIDUAL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW LINGERING FROM YESTERDAYS
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. IN CONTRAST...THE UPSLOPE FLOW...ASSOCIATED
LOW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL SLOW
THE START OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DO AGREE ON SOME QPF BULLS EYES HERE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...APPARENTLY KEYING ON SOME LATE DAY HEATING
AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING FORCING ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE OVER CO.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE NORTHERN
SANGRE DE CRISTOS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS/HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE DISSIPATION OF LOW
CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGERING FROM LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...604 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES THIS MORNING. LOW CIGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH CIGS BKN-
OVC002-008 FROM KRTN TO KLVS TO KCQC TO KSRR. AS THESE CLOUDS
SLOWLY ERODE...CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO START IN CENTRAL ZONES
BUT SHOULD INITIATE BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN. HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN BY 22Z TO 00Z
AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE TO CENTRAL ZONES AND EASTERN PLAINS BY
THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 03Z. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR TO LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
ACTIVITY TO LAST PAST 06Z TO 09Z ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...348 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO STREAM
NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AS A
SUBTROPICAL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEST OF NEW MEXICO...THEN
EASTWARD NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. EXCEPT
FOR SOME NEAR NORMAL READINGS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY VARY FROM A FEW TO 14
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY...BUT COULDNT
MUSTER ENOUGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT HOW COOL IT WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ABOUT THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST AREAS WELL INTO THE DAY. POST FRONTAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 60S TO MID 70S TODAY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...WHERE MODELS ARE GENERALLY
AGREEING ON SOME OF THE BETTER QPF. CHATTED WITH NWS PUEBLO AND WE
DECIDED TO LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-ASSESS THE SITUATION BASED ON THE EROSION
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND UPDATED MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE SUN...WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS THERE. THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING MAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS A SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER
TO NE NEW MEXICO FROM N COLORADO IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM SW OF NM TODAY TO NORTHERN
NM AND CO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF CA. AFTER THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME CROSSES THIS WEEKEND...SOME DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
OVER NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BASE OF THE WAVE AS THE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE DOWNTICK IN CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THOUGH
THERE SHOULD STILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CELLS AROUND. MODELS
THEN DEPICT THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NE
NM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...WILL DRIFT ABOUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AN ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND. THUS...WETTING RAIN IS A GOOD BET FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PLATEAU LEAST FAVORED. EARLY NEXT...WETTING
RAIN LOOKS TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EAST BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND POSSIBLY A BACK DOOR
FRONT INTO THE EAST COULD SHIFT THE FOCUS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR TO FAIR MOST AREAS TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME WEST WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...
VENTILATION RATES IMPROVE ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS ALL
ZONES BY SUNDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ504-506>508-511-512-514-515-518-521>523-529.

&&

$$

44






000
FXUS65 KABQ 311347 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
747 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...AND A SLOW MOVING
DISTURBANCE SINKING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO...WE
RECONSIDERED THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. ANTECEDENT MOISTURE IS
PRESENT IN PLACES LIKE WESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY AND ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FELL
YESTERDAY. FURTHER...THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS HAD SOME RAIN
OVERNIGHT...SO PLACES LIKE THE WHITE WATER BALDY BURN SCAR SHOULD
PRODUCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS TODAY.

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SOUTH OF THE RIO CHAMA...AND
ALSO FOR THE SOUTHERN SANGRES...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS. SINCE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...ADDED THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND SANTA
FE AREA...TOO. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...SINCE THEY ARE STARTING
OFF WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. WESTERN STORMS SHOULD ALSO BENEFIT FROM
SOME RESIDUAL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW LINGERING FROM YESTERDAYS
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. IN CONTRAST...THE UPSLOPE FLOW...ASSOCIATED
LOW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL SLOW
THE START OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DO AGREE ON SOME QPF BULLS EYES HERE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...APPARENTLY KEYING ON SOME LATE DAY HEATING
AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING FORCING ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE OVER CO.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE NORTHERN
SANGRE DE CRISTOS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS/HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE DISSIPATION OF LOW
CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGERING FROM LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...604 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES THIS MORNING. LOW CIGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH CIGS BKN-
OVC002-008 FROM KRTN TO KLVS TO KCQC TO KSRR. AS THESE CLOUDS
SLOWLY ERODE...CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO START IN CENTRAL ZONES
BUT SHOULD INITIATE BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN. HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN BY 22Z TO 00Z
AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE TO CENTRAL ZONES AND EASTERN PLAINS BY
THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 03Z. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR TO LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
ACTIVITY TO LAST PAST 06Z TO 09Z ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...348 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO STREAM
NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AS A
SUBTROPICAL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEST OF NEW MEXICO...THEN
EASTWARD NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. EXCEPT
FOR SOME NEAR NORMAL READINGS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY VARY FROM A FEW TO 14
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY...BUT COULDNT
MUSTER ENOUGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT HOW COOL IT WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ABOUT THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST AREAS WELL INTO THE DAY. POST FRONTAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 60S TO MID 70S TODAY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...WHERE MODELS ARE GENERALLY
AGREEING ON SOME OF THE BETTER QPF. CHATTED WITH NWS PUEBLO AND WE
DECIDED TO LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-ASSESS THE SITUATION BASED ON THE EROSION
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND UPDATED MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE SUN...WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS THERE. THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING MAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS A SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER
TO NE NEW MEXICO FROM N COLORADO IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM SW OF NM TODAY TO NORTHERN
NM AND CO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF CA. AFTER THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME CROSSES THIS WEEKEND...SOME DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
OVER NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BASE OF THE WAVE AS THE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE DOWNTICK IN CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THOUGH
THERE SHOULD STILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CELLS AROUND. MODELS
THEN DEPICT THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NE
NM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...WILL DRIFT ABOUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AN ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND. THUS...WETTING RAIN IS A GOOD BET FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PLATEAU LEAST FAVORED. EARLY NEXT...WETTING
RAIN LOOKS TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EAST BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND POSSIBLY A BACK DOOR
FRONT INTO THE EAST COULD SHIFT THE FOCUS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR TO FAIR MOST AREAS TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME WEST WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...
VENTILATION RATES IMPROVE ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS ALL
ZONES BY SUNDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ504-506>508-511-512-514-515-518-521>523-529.

&&

$$

44






000
FXUS65 KABQ 311347 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
747 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...AND A SLOW MOVING
DISTURBANCE SINKING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO...WE
RECONSIDERED THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. ANTECEDENT MOISTURE IS
PRESENT IN PLACES LIKE WESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY AND ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FELL
YESTERDAY. FURTHER...THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS HAD SOME RAIN
OVERNIGHT...SO PLACES LIKE THE WHITE WATER BALDY BURN SCAR SHOULD
PRODUCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS TODAY.

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SOUTH OF THE RIO CHAMA...AND
ALSO FOR THE SOUTHERN SANGRES...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS. SINCE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...ADDED THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND SANTA
FE AREA...TOO. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...SINCE THEY ARE STARTING
OFF WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. WESTERN STORMS SHOULD ALSO BENEFIT FROM
SOME RESIDUAL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW LINGERING FROM YESTERDAYS
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. IN CONTRAST...THE UPSLOPE FLOW...ASSOCIATED
LOW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL SLOW
THE START OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DO AGREE ON SOME QPF BULLS EYES HERE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...APPARENTLY KEYING ON SOME LATE DAY HEATING
AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING FORCING ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE OVER CO.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE NORTHERN
SANGRE DE CRISTOS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS/HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE DISSIPATION OF LOW
CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGERING FROM LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...604 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES THIS MORNING. LOW CIGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH CIGS BKN-
OVC002-008 FROM KRTN TO KLVS TO KCQC TO KSRR. AS THESE CLOUDS
SLOWLY ERODE...CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO START IN CENTRAL ZONES
BUT SHOULD INITIATE BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN. HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN BY 22Z TO 00Z
AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE TO CENTRAL ZONES AND EASTERN PLAINS BY
THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 03Z. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR TO LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
ACTIVITY TO LAST PAST 06Z TO 09Z ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...348 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO STREAM
NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AS A
SUBTROPICAL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEST OF NEW MEXICO...THEN
EASTWARD NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. EXCEPT
FOR SOME NEAR NORMAL READINGS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY VARY FROM A FEW TO 14
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY...BUT COULDNT
MUSTER ENOUGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT HOW COOL IT WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ABOUT THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST AREAS WELL INTO THE DAY. POST FRONTAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 60S TO MID 70S TODAY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...WHERE MODELS ARE GENERALLY
AGREEING ON SOME OF THE BETTER QPF. CHATTED WITH NWS PUEBLO AND WE
DECIDED TO LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-ASSESS THE SITUATION BASED ON THE EROSION
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND UPDATED MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE SUN...WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS THERE. THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING MAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS A SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER
TO NE NEW MEXICO FROM N COLORADO IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM SW OF NM TODAY TO NORTHERN
NM AND CO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF CA. AFTER THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME CROSSES THIS WEEKEND...SOME DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
OVER NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BASE OF THE WAVE AS THE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE DOWNTICK IN CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THOUGH
THERE SHOULD STILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CELLS AROUND. MODELS
THEN DEPICT THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NE
NM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...WILL DRIFT ABOUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AN ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND. THUS...WETTING RAIN IS A GOOD BET FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PLATEAU LEAST FAVORED. EARLY NEXT...WETTING
RAIN LOOKS TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EAST BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND POSSIBLY A BACK DOOR
FRONT INTO THE EAST COULD SHIFT THE FOCUS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR TO FAIR MOST AREAS TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME WEST WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...
VENTILATION RATES IMPROVE ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS ALL
ZONES BY SUNDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ504-506>508-511-512-514-515-518-521>523-529.

&&

$$

44






000
FXUS65 KABQ 311347 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
747 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.UPDATE...
WITH PWATS RANGING FROM 1 TO 1.5 INCHES...AND A SLOW MOVING
DISTURBANCE SINKING SOUTH AND SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO...WE
RECONSIDERED THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. ANTECEDENT MOISTURE IS
PRESENT IN PLACES LIKE WESTERN SAN MIGUEL COUNTY AND ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN FELL
YESTERDAY. FURTHER...THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS HAD SOME RAIN
OVERNIGHT...SO PLACES LIKE THE WHITE WATER BALDY BURN SCAR SHOULD
PRODUCE RAPID RUNOFF WITH ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS TODAY.

DECIDED TO ISSUE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SOUTH OF THE RIO CHAMA...AND
ALSO FOR THE SOUTHERN SANGRES...CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS. SINCE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT SLOWLY TOWARD THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...ADDED THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS AND SANTA
FE AREA...TOO. STORMS SHOULD BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD DURING THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...SINCE THEY ARE STARTING
OFF WITH LESS CLOUD COVER. WESTERN STORMS SHOULD ALSO BENEFIT FROM
SOME RESIDUAL EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW LINGERING FROM YESTERDAYS
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT. IN CONTRAST...THE UPSLOPE FLOW...ASSOCIATED
LOW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WILL SLOW
THE START OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. MODELS DO AGREE ON SOME QPF BULLS EYES HERE DURING THE
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...APPARENTLY KEYING ON SOME LATE DAY HEATING
AND GRADUALLY IMPROVING FORCING ALOFT WITH THE APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE OVER CO.

THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO THE NORTHERN
SANGRE DE CRISTOS...SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND THEIR ADJACENT
HIGHLANDS/HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE DISSIPATION OF LOW
CLOUDS AND CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LINGERING FROM LAST NIGHTS
CONVECTION.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...604 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES THIS MORNING. LOW CIGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH CIGS BKN-
OVC002-008 FROM KRTN TO KLVS TO KCQC TO KSRR. AS THESE CLOUDS
SLOWLY ERODE...CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO START IN CENTRAL ZONES
BUT SHOULD INITIATE BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN. HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN BY 22Z TO 00Z
AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE TO CENTRAL ZONES AND EASTERN PLAINS BY
THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 03Z. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR TO LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
ACTIVITY TO LAST PAST 06Z TO 09Z ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...348 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO STREAM
NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AS A
SUBTROPICAL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEST OF NEW MEXICO...THEN
EASTWARD NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. EXCEPT
FOR SOME NEAR NORMAL READINGS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY VARY FROM A FEW TO 14
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY...BUT COULDNT
MUSTER ENOUGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT HOW COOL IT WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ABOUT THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST AREAS WELL INTO THE DAY. POST FRONTAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 60S TO MID 70S TODAY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...WHERE MODELS ARE GENERALLY
AGREEING ON SOME OF THE BETTER QPF. CHATTED WITH NWS PUEBLO AND WE
DECIDED TO LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-ASSESS THE SITUATION BASED ON THE EROSION
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND UPDATED MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE SUN...WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS THERE. THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING MAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS A SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER
TO NE NEW MEXICO FROM N COLORADO IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM SW OF NM TODAY TO NORTHERN
NM AND CO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF CA. AFTER THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME CROSSES THIS WEEKEND...SOME DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
OVER NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BASE OF THE WAVE AS THE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE DOWNTICK IN CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THOUGH
THERE SHOULD STILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CELLS AROUND. MODELS
THEN DEPICT THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NE
NM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...WILL DRIFT ABOUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AN ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND. THUS...WETTING RAIN IS A GOOD BET FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PLATEAU LEAST FAVORED. EARLY NEXT...WETTING
RAIN LOOKS TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EAST BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND POSSIBLY A BACK DOOR
FRONT INTO THE EAST COULD SHIFT THE FOCUS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR TO FAIR MOST AREAS TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME WEST WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...
VENTILATION RATES IMPROVE ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS ALL
ZONES BY SUNDAY.

05

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM NOON MDT TODAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ504-506>508-511-512-514-515-518-521>523-529.

&&

$$

44






000
FXUS65 KABQ 311204 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
604 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES THIS MORNING. LOW CIGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH CIGS BKN-
OVC002-008 FROM KRTN TO KLVS TO KCQC TO KSRR. AS THESE CLOUDS
SLOWLY ERODE...CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO START IN CENTRAL ZONES
BUT SHOULD INITIATE BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN. HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN BY 22Z TO 00Z
AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE TO CENTRAL ZONES AND EASTERN PLAINS BY
THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 03Z. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR TO LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
ACTIVITY TO LAST PAST 06Z TO 09Z ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...348 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO STREAM
NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AS A
SUBTROPICAL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEST OF NEW MEXICO...THEN
EASTWARD NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. EXCEPT
FOR SOME NEAR NORMAL READINGS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY VARY FROM A FEW TO 14
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY...BUT COULDNT
MUSTER ENOUGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT HOW COOL IT WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ABOUT THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST AREAS WELL INTO THE DAY. POST FRONTAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 60S TO MID 70S TODAY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...WHERE MODELS ARE GENERALLY
AGREEING ON SOME OF THE BETTER QPF. CHATTED WITH NWS PUEBLO AND WE
DECIDED TO LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-ASSESS THE SITUATION BASED ON THE EROSION
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND UPDATED MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE SUN...WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS THERE. THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING MAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS A SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER
TO NE NEW MEXICO FROM N COLORADO IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM SW OF NM TODAY TO NORTHERN
NM AND CO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF CA. AFTER THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME CROSSES THIS WEEKEND...SOME DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
OVER NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BASE OF THE WAVE AS THE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE DOWNTICK IN CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THOUGH
THERE SHOULD STILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CELLS AROUND. MODELS
THEN DEPICT THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NE
NM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...WILL DRIFT ABOUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AN ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND. THUS...WETTING RAIN IS A GOOD BET FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PLATEAU LEAST FAVORED. EARLY NEXT...WETTING
RAIN LOOKS TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EAST BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND POSSIBLY A BACK DOOR
FRONT INTO THE EAST COULD SHIFT THE FOCUS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR TO FAIR MOST AREAS TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME WEST WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...
VENTILATION RATES IMPROVE ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS ALL
ZONES BY SUNDAY.

05

&&


.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 311204 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
604 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SPOTTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO LINGER OVER PORTIONS OF
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL ZONES THIS MORNING. LOW CIGS AND MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS MAINLY EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH CIGS BKN-
OVC002-008 FROM KRTN TO KLVS TO KCQC TO KSRR. AS THESE CLOUDS
SLOWLY ERODE...CONVECTION MAY BE SLOW TO START IN CENTRAL ZONES
BUT SHOULD INITIATE BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z OVER THE WESTERN HIGH
TERRAIN. HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED CENTRAL HIGH TERRAIN BY 22Z TO 00Z
AND EXPANDING IN COVERAGE TO CENTRAL ZONES AND EASTERN PLAINS BY
THIS EVENING THROUGH AROUND 03Z. EXPECT LOCAL MVFR TO LOCAL IFR
CONDITIONS IN MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
ACTIVITY TO LAST PAST 06Z TO 09Z ESPECIALLY SOUTHEAST PLAINS.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...348 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO STREAM
NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AS A
SUBTROPICAL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEST OF NEW MEXICO...THEN
EASTWARD NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. EXCEPT
FOR SOME NEAR NORMAL READINGS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY VARY FROM A FEW TO 14
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY...BUT COULDNT
MUSTER ENOUGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT HOW COOL IT WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ABOUT THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST AREAS WELL INTO THE DAY. POST FRONTAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 60S TO MID 70S TODAY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...WHERE MODELS ARE GENERALLY
AGREEING ON SOME OF THE BETTER QPF. CHATTED WITH NWS PUEBLO AND WE
DECIDED TO LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-ASSESS THE SITUATION BASED ON THE EROSION
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND UPDATED MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE SUN...WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS THERE. THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING MAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS A SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER
TO NE NEW MEXICO FROM N COLORADO IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM SW OF NM TODAY TO NORTHERN
NM AND CO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF CA. AFTER THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME CROSSES THIS WEEKEND...SOME DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
OVER NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BASE OF THE WAVE AS THE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE DOWNTICK IN CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THOUGH
THERE SHOULD STILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CELLS AROUND. MODELS
THEN DEPICT THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NE
NM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...WILL DRIFT ABOUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AN ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND. THUS...WETTING RAIN IS A GOOD BET FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PLATEAU LEAST FAVORED. EARLY NEXT...WETTING
RAIN LOOKS TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EAST BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND POSSIBLY A BACK DOOR
FRONT INTO THE EAST COULD SHIFT THE FOCUS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR TO FAIR MOST AREAS TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME WEST WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...
VENTILATION RATES IMPROVE ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS ALL
ZONES BY SUNDAY.

05

&&


.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 310948
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
348 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO STREAM
NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AS A
SUBTROPICAL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEST OF NEW MEXICO...THEN
EASTWARD NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. EXCEPT
FOR SOME NEAR NORMAL READINGS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY VARY FROM A FEW TO 14
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY...BUT COULDNT
MUSTER ENOUGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT HOW COOL IT WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ABOUT THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST AREAS WELL INTO THE DAY. POST FRONTAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 60S TO MID 70S TODAY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...WHERE MODELS ARE GENERALLY
AGREEING ON SOME OF THE BETTER QPF. CHATTED WITH NWS PUEBLO AND WE
DECIDED TO LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-ASSESS THE SITUATION BASED ON THE EROSION
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND UPDATED MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE SUN...WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS THERE. THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING MAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS A SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER
TO NE NEW MEXICO FROM N COLORADO IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM SW OF NM TODAY TO NORTHERN
NM AND CO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF CA. AFTER THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME CROSSES THIS WEEKEND...SOME DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
OVER NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BASE OF THE WAVE AS THE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE DOWNTICK IN CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THOUGH
THERE SHOULD STILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CELLS AROUND. MODELS
THEN DEPICT THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NE
NM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...WILL DRIFT ABOUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AN ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND. THUS...WETTING RAIN IS A GOOD BET FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PLATEAU LEAST FAVORED. EARLY NEXT...WETTING
RAIN LOOKS TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EAST BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND POSSIBLY A BACK DOOR
FRONT INTO THE EAST COULD SHIFT THE FOCUS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR TO FAIR MOST AREAS TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME WEST WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...
VENTILATION RATES IMPROVE ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS ALL
ZONES BY SUNDAY.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CIGS AND MT OBSCURATION STATEWIDE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING AROUND 18Z THU NOON WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS IN STORE THU AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL BE SLOWER MOVING WITH TRANSPORT ONCE AGAIN TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST ONCE INITIATED. ACTIVITY DYING DOWN FOR ALL BUT THE
AZ BORDER COUNTRY FROM 03Z ONWARD AS MT OBSCURATION REDEVELOPS.

SHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  90  62  88  62 /  10  20  30  30
DULCE...........................  82  52  83  51 /  10  40  50  40
CUBA............................  80  55  81  53 /  60  50  60  50
GALLUP..........................  87  57  85  57 /  10  30  30  40
EL MORRO........................  83  54  77  52 /  50  50  50  40
GRANTS..........................  85  55  80  53 /  40  60  50  50
QUEMADO.........................  83  57  76  54 /  50  50  50  40
GLENWOOD........................  88  58  82  55 /  20  30  40  50
CHAMA...........................  76  47  76  45 /  60  50  70  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  77  57  72  52 /  30  50  60  60
PECOS...........................  73  53  67  49 /  50  50  70  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  73  51  71  48 /  20  50  70  60
RED RIVER.......................  60  43  62  40 /  50  50  80  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  67  43  67  42 /  50  50  70  70
TAOS............................  76  51  72  49 /  10  50  60  50
MORA............................  71  51  68  48 /  50  50  70  60
ESPANOLA........................  81  58  76  56 /  10  50  40  50
SANTA FE........................  77  58  70  54 /  20  50  60  60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  79  58  75  55 /  10  50  50  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  81  62  78  59 /  10  50  50  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  84  65  80  62 /  10  40  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  87  63  84  61 /  10  40  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  86  64  85  61 /  10  40  40  50
LOS LUNAS.......................  88  62  84  60 /  10  40  40  50
RIO RANCHO......................  86  64  85  61 /  10  40  40  40
SOCORRO.........................  90  66  86  62 /  10  40  40  50
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  80  59  78  56 /  30  50  60  60
TIJERAS.........................  79  59  76  55 /  20  50  60  60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  75  56  72  54 /  30  50  60  60
CLINES CORNERS..................  74  56  71  53 /  40  60  60  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  78  59  77  56 /  30  50  60  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  80  61  76  57 /  20  50  50  50
RUIDOSO.........................  76  53  75  49 /  50  50  70  60
CAPULIN.........................  71  55  68  54 /  50  50  60  60
RATON...........................  74  56  72  56 /  50  50  50  60
SPRINGER........................  76  57  72  57 /  40  50  50  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  71  54  69  52 /  60  50  60  60
CLAYTON.........................  77  59  77  62 /   5  20  20  40
ROY.............................  75  59  71  58 /  30  40  50  60
CONCHAS.........................  82  63  78  64 /  10  30  40  50
SANTA ROSA......................  79  62  79  61 /  20  40  50  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  83  63  79  64 /   5  20  20  40
CLOVIS..........................  79  60  76  60 /   5  20  20  30
PORTALES........................  81  61  79  61 /   5  20  20  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  82  63  77  62 /  10  30  30  50
ROSWELL.........................  85  67  82  63 /  20  30  20  40
PICACHO.........................  80  62  76  58 /  30  40  50  50
ELK.............................  75  58  73  53 /  50  50  70  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44






000
FXUS65 KABQ 310948
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
348 AM MDT THU JUL 31 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DAILY ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND INTO THE NIGHT TIME HOURS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME IS EXPECTED TO STREAM
NORTHWARD OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN PARTS OF NEW MEXICO AS A
SUBTROPICAL LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY NORTHWARD WEST OF NEW MEXICO...THEN
EASTWARD NORTH OF NEW MEXICO. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WITH A RISK OF FLASH FLOODING. EXCEPT
FOR SOME NEAR NORMAL READINGS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
TODAY...HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY VARY FROM A FEW TO 14
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL EACH DAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CONSIDERED ISSUING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TODAY...BUT COULDNT
MUSTER ENOUGH CONFIDENCE DUE TO CONCERNS ABOUT HOW COOL IT WILL BE
ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ABOUT THE AMOUNT
OF CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS LIKELY TO LINGER OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTHEAST AREAS WELL INTO THE DAY. POST FRONTAL HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD ONLY REACH THE 60S TO MID 70S TODAY ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTOS AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS...WHERE MODELS ARE GENERALLY
AGREEING ON SOME OF THE BETTER QPF. CHATTED WITH NWS PUEBLO AND WE
DECIDED TO LET THE DAY SHIFT RE-ASSESS THE SITUATION BASED ON THE EROSION
OF DEBRIS CLOUDS AND UPDATED MODEL RUNS. AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS
LIKE THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS MAY HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING DURING THE AFTERNOON DUE TO MORE SUN...WARMER
TEMPERATURES AND SLOWER STORM MOTIONS THERE. THE RISK FOR FLASH
FLOODING MAY THEN SHIFT TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS A SLOW MOVING DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHIFTS CLOSER
TO NE NEW MEXICO FROM N COLORADO IN NW FLOW ALOFT.

THE UPPER HIGH IS PROGGED TO SHIFT FROM SW OF NM TODAY TO NORTHERN
NM AND CO BY SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE SHIFTS
NORTHWARD OUT OF THE GULF OF CA. AFTER THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE
PLUME CROSSES THIS WEEKEND...SOME DRIER AIR IS FORECAST TO SHIFT
OVER NM FROM THE SOUTHWEST AROUND THE BASE OF THE WAVE AS THE
SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A
NOTICEABLE DOWNTICK IN CONVECTION MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THOUGH
THERE SHOULD STILL BE SCATTERED TO ISOLATED CELLS AROUND. MODELS
THEN DEPICT THE SUBTROPICAL WAVE DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NE
NM AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS COULD BE ANOTHER PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN ALONG
AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN.

44

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE...CURRENTLY POSITIONED OVER SOUTHERN
ARIZONA...WILL DRIFT ABOUT OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MOIST
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH LOW LEVEL FLOW AND AN ACTIVE MONSOON PLUME OVER
EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW MEXICO TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE WEEKEND. THUS...WETTING RAIN IS A GOOD BET FOR MOST AREAS...WITH
THE EXTREME NORTHWEST PLATEAU LEAST FAVORED. EARLY NEXT...WETTING
RAIN LOOKS TO FAVOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN WITH DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE EAST BUT AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND POSSIBLY A BACK DOOR
FRONT INTO THE EAST COULD SHIFT THE FOCUS TO THE EASTERN PLAINS BY
MID WEEK.

TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN BELOW SEASONAL NORMALS THROUGH THE PERIOD.
VENTILATION WILL BE POOR TO FAIR MOST AREAS TODAY EXCEPT FOR THE
EXTREME WEST WITH LITTLE IMPROVEMENT ON FRIDAY. FOR THE WEEKEND...
VENTILATION RATES IMPROVE ACROSS THE EAST ON SATURDAY AND ACROSS ALL
ZONES BY SUNDAY.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CIGS AND MT OBSCURATION STATEWIDE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING AROUND 18Z THU NOON WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS IN STORE THU AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL BE SLOWER MOVING WITH TRANSPORT ONCE AGAIN TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST ONCE INITIATED. ACTIVITY DYING DOWN FOR ALL BUT THE
AZ BORDER COUNTRY FROM 03Z ONWARD AS MT OBSCURATION REDEVELOPS.

SHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  90  62  88  62 /  10  20  30  30
DULCE...........................  82  52  83  51 /  10  40  50  40
CUBA............................  80  55  81  53 /  60  50  60  50
GALLUP..........................  87  57  85  57 /  10  30  30  40
EL MORRO........................  83  54  77  52 /  50  50  50  40
GRANTS..........................  85  55  80  53 /  40  60  50  50
QUEMADO.........................  83  57  76  54 /  50  50  50  40
GLENWOOD........................  88  58  82  55 /  20  30  40  50
CHAMA...........................  76  47  76  45 /  60  50  70  60
LOS ALAMOS......................  77  57  72  52 /  30  50  60  60
PECOS...........................  73  53  67  49 /  50  50  70  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  73  51  71  48 /  20  50  70  60
RED RIVER.......................  60  43  62  40 /  50  50  80  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  67  43  67  42 /  50  50  70  70
TAOS............................  76  51  72  49 /  10  50  60  50
MORA............................  71  51  68  48 /  50  50  70  60
ESPANOLA........................  81  58  76  56 /  10  50  40  50
SANTA FE........................  77  58  70  54 /  20  50  60  60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  79  58  75  55 /  10  50  50  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  81  62  78  59 /  10  50  50  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  84  65  80  62 /  10  40  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  87  63  84  61 /  10  40  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  86  64  85  61 /  10  40  40  50
LOS LUNAS.......................  88  62  84  60 /  10  40  40  50
RIO RANCHO......................  86  64  85  61 /  10  40  40  40
SOCORRO.........................  90  66  86  62 /  10  40  40  50
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  80  59  78  56 /  30  50  60  60
TIJERAS.........................  79  59  76  55 /  20  50  60  60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  75  56  72  54 /  30  50  60  60
CLINES CORNERS..................  74  56  71  53 /  40  60  60  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  78  59  77  56 /  30  50  60  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  80  61  76  57 /  20  50  50  50
RUIDOSO.........................  76  53  75  49 /  50  50  70  60
CAPULIN.........................  71  55  68  54 /  50  50  60  60
RATON...........................  74  56  72  56 /  50  50  50  60
SPRINGER........................  76  57  72  57 /  40  50  50  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  71  54  69  52 /  60  50  60  60
CLAYTON.........................  77  59  77  62 /   5  20  20  40
ROY.............................  75  59  71  58 /  30  40  50  60
CONCHAS.........................  82  63  78  64 /  10  30  40  50
SANTA ROSA......................  79  62  79  61 /  20  40  50  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  83  63  79  64 /   5  20  20  40
CLOVIS..........................  79  60  76  60 /   5  20  20  30
PORTALES........................  81  61  79  61 /   5  20  20  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  82  63  77  62 /  10  30  30  50
ROSWELL.........................  85  67  82  63 /  20  30  20  40
PICACHO.........................  80  62  76  58 /  30  40  50  50
ELK.............................  75  58  73  53 /  50  50  70  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

44





000
FXUS65 KABQ 310540 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1140 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CIGS AND MT OBSCURATION STATEWIDE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING AROUND 18Z THU NOON WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS IN STORE THU AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL BE SLOWER MOVING WITH TRANSPORT ONCE AGAIN TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST ONCE INITIATED. ACTIVITY DYING DOWN FOR ALL BUT THE
AZ BORDER COUNTRY FROM 03Z ONWARD AS MT OBSCURATION REDEVELOPS.


SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...855 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WORDING FROM THE ZFP. MAIN
CONCERN LATE THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE EAST OF THE MANZANOS
AND WHETHER OR NOT STORMS FIRE WEST OF THE MIDDLE RG VALLEY DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RELOCATED TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND A
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BACKING INTO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A HINT OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE STATE WHILE ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL SPILL THROUGH SOME CENTRAL VALLEY
AREAS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES WESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO
FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON THURSDAY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FUELING DAILY BOUTS OF STORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TRICKY FORECAST IS SHAPING UP THIS EVENING WITH SOME COMBATING
ELEMENTS IN THIS BACK DOOR FRONT REGIME. WITH THE HIGH NESTLED
OVER THE BOOT HEEL OF NM...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
STRENGTHENED AT THE OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE STATE WITH A PAIR OF
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
WAVE HAS PASSED WELL EAST OF NM WITH A SECONDARY ONE IN WY/CO. THE
MAJORITY OF FORCING WITH THIS SECONDARY FEATURE SHOULD BYPASS
NM...BUT THE FLOW INTO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WILL BE
QUITE BRISK WITH 15 TO 20 KT AT H7 AND ABOUT 30 KT AT H5. AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONT HAS ADVANCED WELL INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WITH FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE INCREASES IN DEW POINTS. PWATS ARE
STILL HEALTHIEST IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NM AT 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES.

CONVECTIVE MODE AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOST DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE THIS EVENING
WHERE RELATIVELY COOL POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND...BUT
STILL SOME REMNANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. BEST FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING HAS ALREADY PASSED...SO INITIATION OF STORMS COULD BE
DIFFICULT OUTSIDE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. DESPITE THE FAST
STEERING FLOW AND QUICK 15 KT STORM MOTION IN THIS AREA...DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LOCAL WRF
AND HRRR MODEL INDICATE SOME LATE EVENING ACTIVITY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...BUT IT COULD TURN MORE SHOWERY/STRATIFORM BY
THAT POINT. MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OFF OF THE SANGRES...DRIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD BE AN
ISSUE IF ANY CELLS MOVE DOWN THE GREATER PECOS RIVER BASIN WHERE
FLOOD WATERS ARE STILL SLOWLY RECEDING WITH SATURATED SOILS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT AN UPTICK IN STORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS JUMPING THE
RIO GRANDE TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GAP WIND
WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE AS FRONT SPILLS THROUGH TAOS
CANYON...GLORIETA PASS...TIJERAS CANYON...ABO PASS...AND BENADO
GAP NEAR CARRIZOZO. GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THESE
LOCALES.

THURSDAY THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
RANGES OF THE STATE. STORMS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE FAR EASTERN BORDER OF NM WILL LIKELY
SEE MINIMAL ACTIVITY AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE IN THE
COOLER POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ALMOST STATEWIDE...WITH READINGS DIPPING BELOW AVERAGE IN ALL
AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE AZ BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE NORTHWESTWARD INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
NORTHWESTERLIES TO RELAX SOME. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN STORM
MOTION...POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT SINCE PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ON
HAND. THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN
TOO STABLE TO PRODUCE MANY STORMS...BUT REMAINING AREAS WILL BE
QUITE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE BUILT INTO THE
FORECAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DECENT STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY LEANING BACK OVER NM AND TEMPERATURES TRYING TO CREEP
BACK TOWARD AVERAGE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. A
BACKDOOR FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING PROGRESS DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WILL PROVIDE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING THERE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH WEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING THEN OUT BEYOND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY TOMORROW MORNING...RECHARGING MOISTURE AND
RENEWING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN/HIGHLANDS WESTWARD. WETTING RAINS ARE A GOOD BET
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE CENTRAL AND WEST FROM THU-SUN. STORM MOTION
WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS SURE BET WITH PWATS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT VENT
RATES WILL TAKE A HIT BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST TOMORROW. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT TRENDS
ARE EVER SO SLIGHT.

BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALLING TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA AND THE
UPPER HIGH SQUASHED TO THE SW. ASSUMING THIS WORKS-OUT...THE TREND
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WOULD BE A COOLING ONE WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND WETTING RAINS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS PREVAILING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KLVS AND KTCC AND
WILL PUSH THROUGH KSAF AND KROW AROUND/AFTER 00Z...THEN THROUGH
KABQ BY 02Z. THE PEAK PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
KABQ/KAEG/SAF/KROW WILL BE BETWEEN 00-04Z AS THE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST. GUSTS TO 34KTS ARE FORECAST AT KABQ WITH THE EAST WIND THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLVS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS LATE...
THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KTCC EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL...BUT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY WIN-OUT.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33/52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 310540 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1140 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LOW CIGS AND MT OBSCURATION STATEWIDE ESPECIALLY OVER THE
EASTERN PLAINS AND WESTWARD ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. CONDITIONS IMPROVING AROUND 18Z THU NOON WITH
ANOTHER DAY OF WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS IN STORE THU AFTERNOON.
STORMS WILL BE SLOWER MOVING WITH TRANSPORT ONCE AGAIN TO THE
SOUTH AND EAST ONCE INITIATED. ACTIVITY DYING DOWN FOR ALL BUT THE
AZ BORDER COUNTRY FROM 03Z ONWARD AS MT OBSCURATION REDEVELOPS.


SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...855 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WORDING FROM THE ZFP. MAIN
CONCERN LATE THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE EAST OF THE MANZANOS
AND WHETHER OR NOT STORMS FIRE WEST OF THE MIDDLE RG VALLEY DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RELOCATED TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND A
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BACKING INTO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A HINT OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE STATE WHILE ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL SPILL THROUGH SOME CENTRAL VALLEY
AREAS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES WESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO
FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON THURSDAY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FUELING DAILY BOUTS OF STORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TRICKY FORECAST IS SHAPING UP THIS EVENING WITH SOME COMBATING
ELEMENTS IN THIS BACK DOOR FRONT REGIME. WITH THE HIGH NESTLED
OVER THE BOOT HEEL OF NM...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
STRENGTHENED AT THE OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE STATE WITH A PAIR OF
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
WAVE HAS PASSED WELL EAST OF NM WITH A SECONDARY ONE IN WY/CO. THE
MAJORITY OF FORCING WITH THIS SECONDARY FEATURE SHOULD BYPASS
NM...BUT THE FLOW INTO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WILL BE
QUITE BRISK WITH 15 TO 20 KT AT H7 AND ABOUT 30 KT AT H5. AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONT HAS ADVANCED WELL INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WITH FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE INCREASES IN DEW POINTS. PWATS ARE
STILL HEALTHIEST IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NM AT 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES.

CONVECTIVE MODE AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOST DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE THIS EVENING
WHERE RELATIVELY COOL POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND...BUT
STILL SOME REMNANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. BEST FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING HAS ALREADY PASSED...SO INITIATION OF STORMS COULD BE
DIFFICULT OUTSIDE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. DESPITE THE FAST
STEERING FLOW AND QUICK 15 KT STORM MOTION IN THIS AREA...DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LOCAL WRF
AND HRRR MODEL INDICATE SOME LATE EVENING ACTIVITY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...BUT IT COULD TURN MORE SHOWERY/STRATIFORM BY
THAT POINT. MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OFF OF THE SANGRES...DRIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD BE AN
ISSUE IF ANY CELLS MOVE DOWN THE GREATER PECOS RIVER BASIN WHERE
FLOOD WATERS ARE STILL SLOWLY RECEDING WITH SATURATED SOILS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT AN UPTICK IN STORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS JUMPING THE
RIO GRANDE TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GAP WIND
WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE AS FRONT SPILLS THROUGH TAOS
CANYON...GLORIETA PASS...TIJERAS CANYON...ABO PASS...AND BENADO
GAP NEAR CARRIZOZO. GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THESE
LOCALES.

THURSDAY THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
RANGES OF THE STATE. STORMS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE FAR EASTERN BORDER OF NM WILL LIKELY
SEE MINIMAL ACTIVITY AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE IN THE
COOLER POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ALMOST STATEWIDE...WITH READINGS DIPPING BELOW AVERAGE IN ALL
AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE AZ BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE NORTHWESTWARD INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
NORTHWESTERLIES TO RELAX SOME. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN STORM
MOTION...POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT SINCE PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ON
HAND. THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN
TOO STABLE TO PRODUCE MANY STORMS...BUT REMAINING AREAS WILL BE
QUITE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE BUILT INTO THE
FORECAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DECENT STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY LEANING BACK OVER NM AND TEMPERATURES TRYING TO CREEP
BACK TOWARD AVERAGE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. A
BACKDOOR FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING PROGRESS DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WILL PROVIDE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING THERE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH WEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING THEN OUT BEYOND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY TOMORROW MORNING...RECHARGING MOISTURE AND
RENEWING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN/HIGHLANDS WESTWARD. WETTING RAINS ARE A GOOD BET
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE CENTRAL AND WEST FROM THU-SUN. STORM MOTION
WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS SURE BET WITH PWATS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT VENT
RATES WILL TAKE A HIT BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST TOMORROW. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT TRENDS
ARE EVER SO SLIGHT.

BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALLING TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA AND THE
UPPER HIGH SQUASHED TO THE SW. ASSUMING THIS WORKS-OUT...THE TREND
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WOULD BE A COOLING ONE WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND WETTING RAINS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS PREVAILING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KLVS AND KTCC AND
WILL PUSH THROUGH KSAF AND KROW AROUND/AFTER 00Z...THEN THROUGH
KABQ BY 02Z. THE PEAK PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
KABQ/KAEG/SAF/KROW WILL BE BETWEEN 00-04Z AS THE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST. GUSTS TO 34KTS ARE FORECAST AT KABQ WITH THE EAST WIND THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLVS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS LATE...
THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KTCC EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL...BUT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY WIN-OUT.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

33/52







000
FXUS65 KABQ 310255 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
855 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WORDING FROM THE ZFP. MAIN
CONCERN LATE THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE EAST OF THE MANZANOS
AND WHETHER OR NOT STORMS FIRE WEST OF THE MIDDLE RG VALLEY DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...542 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT LYING FROM ROUGHLY SKX TO ROW WILL BULGE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
06Z THIS EVENING...AS RIDGE ALOFT CENTERS UP ON THE NEW MEXICO
BOOT HEEL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE CENTRAL AND WEST THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS SQUIRTING THROUGH CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN GAPS AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. LOW CIGS MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NM...WITH SCT GROUPS AT
IFR/MVFR EXCURSIONS MARKING LOWEST EXPECTED CIG IN TAFS AT
LVS...TCC...AND ROW. THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING FROM 20Z ONWARD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH REDUCED ACTIVITY IN THE
EAST. TRANSPORT DIRECTION SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RELOCATED TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND A
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BACKING INTO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A HINT OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE STATE WHILE ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL SPILL THROUGH SOME CENTRAL VALLEY
AREAS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES WESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO
FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON THURSDAY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FUELING DAILY BOUTS OF STORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TRICKY FORECAST IS SHAPING UP THIS EVENING WITH SOME COMBATING
ELEMENTS IN THIS BACK DOOR FRONT REGIME. WITH THE HIGH NESTLED
OVER THE BOOT HEEL OF NM...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
STRENGTHENED AT THE OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE STATE WITH A PAIR OF
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
WAVE HAS PASSED WELL EAST OF NM WITH A SECONDARY ONE IN WY/CO. THE
MAJORITY OF FORCING WITH THIS SECONDARY FEATURE SHOULD BYPASS
NM...BUT THE FLOW INTO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WILL BE
QUITE BRISK WITH 15 TO 20 KT AT H7 AND ABOUT 30 KT AT H5. AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONT HAS ADVANCED WELL INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WITH FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE INCREASES IN DEW POINTS. PWATS ARE
STILL HEALTHIEST IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NM AT 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES.

CONVECTIVE MODE AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOST DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE THIS EVENING
WHERE RELATIVELY COOL POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND...BUT
STILL SOME REMNANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. BEST FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING HAS ALREADY PASSED...SO INITIATION OF STORMS COULD BE
DIFFICULT OUTSIDE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. DESPITE THE FAST
STEERING FLOW AND QUICK 15 KT STORM MOTION IN THIS AREA...DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LOCAL WRF
AND HRRR MODEL INDICATE SOME LATE EVENING ACTIVITY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...BUT IT COULD TURN MORE SHOWERY/STRATIFORM BY
THAT POINT. MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OFF OF THE SANGRES...DRIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD BE AN
ISSUE IF ANY CELLS MOVE DOWN THE GREATER PECOS RIVER BASIN WHERE
FLOOD WATERS ARE STILL SLOWLY RECEDING WITH SATURATED SOILS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT AN UPTICK IN STORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS JUMPING THE
RIO GRANDE TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GAP WIND
WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE AS FRONT SPILLS THROUGH TAOS
CANYON...GLORIETA PASS...TIJERAS CANYON...ABO PASS...AND BENADO
GAP NEAR CARRIZOZO. GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THESE
LOCALES.

THURSDAY THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
RANGES OF THE STATE. STORMS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE FAR EASTERN BORDER OF NM WILL LIKELY
SEE MINIMAL ACTIVITY AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE IN THE
COOLER POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ALMOST STATEWIDE...WITH READINGS DIPPING BELOW AVERAGE IN ALL
AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE AZ BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE NORTHWESTWARD INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
NORTHWESTERLIES TO RELAX SOME. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN STORM
MOTION...POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT SINCE PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ON
HAND. THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN
TOO STABLE TO PRODUCE MANY STORMS...BUT REMAINING AREAS WILL BE
QUITE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE BUILT INTO THE
FORECAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DECENT STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY LEANING BACK OVER NM AND TEMPERATURES TRYING TO CREEP
BACK TOWARD AVERAGE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. A
BACKDOOR FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING PROGRESS DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WILL PROVIDE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING THERE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH WEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING THEN OUT BEYOND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY TOMORROW MORNING...RECHARGING MOISTURE AND
RENEWING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN/HIGHLANDS WESTWARD. WETTING RAINS ARE A GOOD BET
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE CENTRAL AND WEST FROM THU-SUN. STORM MOTION
WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS SURE BET WITH PWATS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT VENT
RATES WILL TAKE A HIT BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST TOMORROW. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT TRENDS
ARE EVER SO SLIGHT.

BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALLING TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA AND THE
UPPER HIGH SQUASHED TO THE SW. ASSUMING THIS WORKS-OUT...THE TREND
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WOULD BE A COOLING ONE WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND WETTING RAINS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS PREVAILING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KLVS AND KTCC AND
WILL PUSH THROUGH KSAF AND KROW AROUND/AFTER 00Z...THEN THROUGH
KABQ BY 02Z. THE PEAK PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
KABQ/KAEG/SAF/KROW WILL BE BETWEEN 00-04Z AS THE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST. GUSTS TO 34KTS ARE FORECAST AT KABQ WITH THE EAST WIND THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLVS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS LATE...
THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KTCC EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL...BUT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY WIN-OUT.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ513>515-527>531.

&&

$$

33








000
FXUS65 KABQ 310255 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
855 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WORDING FROM THE ZFP. MAIN
CONCERN LATE THIS EVENING WILL CONTINUE TO BE EAST OF THE MANZANOS
AND WHETHER OR NOT STORMS FIRE WEST OF THE MIDDLE RG VALLEY DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...542 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT LYING FROM ROUGHLY SKX TO ROW WILL BULGE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
06Z THIS EVENING...AS RIDGE ALOFT CENTERS UP ON THE NEW MEXICO
BOOT HEEL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE CENTRAL AND WEST THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS SQUIRTING THROUGH CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN GAPS AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. LOW CIGS MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NM...WITH SCT GROUPS AT
IFR/MVFR EXCURSIONS MARKING LOWEST EXPECTED CIG IN TAFS AT
LVS...TCC...AND ROW. THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING FROM 20Z ONWARD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH REDUCED ACTIVITY IN THE
EAST. TRANSPORT DIRECTION SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RELOCATED TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND A
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BACKING INTO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A HINT OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE STATE WHILE ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL SPILL THROUGH SOME CENTRAL VALLEY
AREAS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES WESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO
FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON THURSDAY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FUELING DAILY BOUTS OF STORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TRICKY FORECAST IS SHAPING UP THIS EVENING WITH SOME COMBATING
ELEMENTS IN THIS BACK DOOR FRONT REGIME. WITH THE HIGH NESTLED
OVER THE BOOT HEEL OF NM...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
STRENGTHENED AT THE OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE STATE WITH A PAIR OF
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
WAVE HAS PASSED WELL EAST OF NM WITH A SECONDARY ONE IN WY/CO. THE
MAJORITY OF FORCING WITH THIS SECONDARY FEATURE SHOULD BYPASS
NM...BUT THE FLOW INTO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WILL BE
QUITE BRISK WITH 15 TO 20 KT AT H7 AND ABOUT 30 KT AT H5. AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONT HAS ADVANCED WELL INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WITH FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE INCREASES IN DEW POINTS. PWATS ARE
STILL HEALTHIEST IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NM AT 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES.

CONVECTIVE MODE AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOST DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE THIS EVENING
WHERE RELATIVELY COOL POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND...BUT
STILL SOME REMNANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. BEST FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING HAS ALREADY PASSED...SO INITIATION OF STORMS COULD BE
DIFFICULT OUTSIDE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. DESPITE THE FAST
STEERING FLOW AND QUICK 15 KT STORM MOTION IN THIS AREA...DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LOCAL WRF
AND HRRR MODEL INDICATE SOME LATE EVENING ACTIVITY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...BUT IT COULD TURN MORE SHOWERY/STRATIFORM BY
THAT POINT. MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OFF OF THE SANGRES...DRIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD BE AN
ISSUE IF ANY CELLS MOVE DOWN THE GREATER PECOS RIVER BASIN WHERE
FLOOD WATERS ARE STILL SLOWLY RECEDING WITH SATURATED SOILS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT AN UPTICK IN STORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS JUMPING THE
RIO GRANDE TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GAP WIND
WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE AS FRONT SPILLS THROUGH TAOS
CANYON...GLORIETA PASS...TIJERAS CANYON...ABO PASS...AND BENADO
GAP NEAR CARRIZOZO. GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THESE
LOCALES.

THURSDAY THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
RANGES OF THE STATE. STORMS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE FAR EASTERN BORDER OF NM WILL LIKELY
SEE MINIMAL ACTIVITY AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE IN THE
COOLER POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ALMOST STATEWIDE...WITH READINGS DIPPING BELOW AVERAGE IN ALL
AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE AZ BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE NORTHWESTWARD INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
NORTHWESTERLIES TO RELAX SOME. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN STORM
MOTION...POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT SINCE PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ON
HAND. THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN
TOO STABLE TO PRODUCE MANY STORMS...BUT REMAINING AREAS WILL BE
QUITE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE BUILT INTO THE
FORECAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DECENT STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY LEANING BACK OVER NM AND TEMPERATURES TRYING TO CREEP
BACK TOWARD AVERAGE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. A
BACKDOOR FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING PROGRESS DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WILL PROVIDE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING THERE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH WEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING THEN OUT BEYOND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY TOMORROW MORNING...RECHARGING MOISTURE AND
RENEWING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN/HIGHLANDS WESTWARD. WETTING RAINS ARE A GOOD BET
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE CENTRAL AND WEST FROM THU-SUN. STORM MOTION
WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS SURE BET WITH PWATS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT VENT
RATES WILL TAKE A HIT BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST TOMORROW. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT TRENDS
ARE EVER SO SLIGHT.

BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALLING TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA AND THE
UPPER HIGH SQUASHED TO THE SW. ASSUMING THIS WORKS-OUT...THE TREND
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WOULD BE A COOLING ONE WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND WETTING RAINS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS PREVAILING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KLVS AND KTCC AND
WILL PUSH THROUGH KSAF AND KROW AROUND/AFTER 00Z...THEN THROUGH
KABQ BY 02Z. THE PEAK PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
KABQ/KAEG/SAF/KROW WILL BE BETWEEN 00-04Z AS THE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST. GUSTS TO 34KTS ARE FORECAST AT KABQ WITH THE EAST WIND THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLVS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS LATE...
THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KTCC EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL...BUT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY WIN-OUT.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ513>515-527>531.

&&

$$

33







000
FXUS65 KABQ 302342 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
542 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
COLD FRONT LYING FROM ROUGHLY SKX TO ROW WILL BULGE WESTWARD
ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY
06Z THIS EVENING...AS RIDGE ALOFT CENTERS UP ON THE NEW MEXICO
BOOT HEEL. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE CENTRAL AND WEST THROUGH
THIS EVENING WITH GUSTY EAST WINDS SQUIRTING THROUGH CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN GAPS AND CONTINUING OVERNIGHT OVER THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY. LOW CIGS MAY DEVELOP OVER EASTERN NM...WITH SCT GROUPS AT
IFR/MVFR EXCURSIONS MARKING LOWEST EXPECTED CIG IN TAFS AT
LVS...TCC...AND ROW. THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING FROM 20Z ONWARD
THURSDAY AFTERNOON CENTRAL AND WEST...WITH REDUCED ACTIVITY IN THE
EAST. TRANSPORT DIRECTION SLOWLY TO THE SOUTHEAST.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...313 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RELOCATED TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND A
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BACKING INTO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A HINT OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE STATE WHILE ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL SPILL THROUGH SOME CENTRAL VALLEY
AREAS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES WESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO
FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON THURSDAY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FUELING DAILY BOUTS OF STORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TRICKY FORECAST IS SHAPING UP THIS EVENING WITH SOME COMBATING
ELEMENTS IN THIS BACK DOOR FRONT REGIME. WITH THE HIGH NESTLED
OVER THE BOOT HEEL OF NM...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
STRENGTHENED AT THE OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE STATE WITH A PAIR OF
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
WAVE HAS PASSED WELL EAST OF NM WITH A SECONDARY ONE IN WY/CO. THE
MAJORITY OF FORCING WITH THIS SECONDARY FEATURE SHOULD BYPASS
NM...BUT THE FLOW INTO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WILL BE
QUITE BRISK WITH 15 TO 20 KT AT H7 AND ABOUT 30 KT AT H5. AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONT HAS ADVANCED WELL INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WITH FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE INCREASES IN DEW POINTS. PWATS ARE
STILL HEALTHIEST IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NM AT 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES.

CONVECTIVE MODE AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOST DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE THIS EVENING
WHERE RELATIVELY COOL POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND...BUT
STILL SOME REMNANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. BEST FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING HAS ALREADY PASSED...SO INITIATION OF STORMS COULD BE
DIFFICULT OUTSIDE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. DESPITE THE FAST
STEERING FLOW AND QUICK 15 KT STORM MOTION IN THIS AREA...DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LOCAL WRF
AND HRRR MODEL INDICATE SOME LATE EVENING ACTIVITY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...BUT IT COULD TURN MORE SHOWERY/STRATIFORM BY
THAT POINT. MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OFF OF THE SANGRES...DRIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD BE AN
ISSUE IF ANY CELLS MOVE DOWN THE GREATER PECOS RIVER BASIN WHERE
FLOOD WATERS ARE STILL SLOWLY RECEDING WITH SATURATED SOILS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT AN UPTICK IN STORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS JUMPING THE
RIO GRANDE TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GAP WIND
WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE AS FRONT SPILLS THROUGH TAOS
CANYON...GLORIETA PASS...TIJERAS CANYON...ABO PASS...AND BENADO
GAP NEAR CARRIZOZO. GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THESE
LOCALES.

THURSDAY THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
RANGES OF THE STATE. STORMS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE FAR EASTERN BORDER OF NM WILL LIKELY
SEE MINIMAL ACTIVITY AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE IN THE
COOLER POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ALMOST STATEWIDE...WITH READINGS DIPPING BELOW AVERAGE IN ALL
AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE AZ BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE NORTHWESTWARD INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
NORTHWESTERLIES TO RELAX SOME. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN STORM
MOTION...POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT SINCE PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ON
HAND. THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN
TOO STABLE TO PRODUCE MANY STORMS...BUT REMAINING AREAS WILL BE
QUITE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE BUILT INTO THE
FORECAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DECENT STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY LEANING BACK OVER NM AND TEMPERATURES TRYING TO CREEP
BACK TOWARD AVERAGE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. A
BACKDOOR FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING PROGRESS DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WILL PROVIDE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING THERE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH WEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING THEN OUT BEYOND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY TOMORROW MORNING...RECHARGING MOISTURE AND
RENEWING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN/HIGHLANDS WESTWARD. WETTING RAINS ARE A GOOD BET
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE CENTRAL AND WEST FROM THU-SUN. STORM MOTION
WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS SURE BET WITH PWATS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT VENT
RATES WILL TAKE A HIT BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST TOMORROW. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT TRENDS
ARE EVER SO SLIGHT.

BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALLING TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA AND THE
UPPER HIGH SQUASHED TO THE SW. ASSUMING THIS WORKS-OUT...THE TREND
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WOULD BE A COOLING ONE WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND WETTING RAINS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS PREVAILING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KLVS AND KTCC AND
WILL PUSH THROUGH KSAF AND KROW AROUND/AFTER 00Z...THEN THROUGH
KABQ BY 02Z. THE PEAK PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
KABQ/KAEG/SAF/KROW WILL BE BETWEEN 00-04Z AS THE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST. GUSTS TO 34KTS ARE FORECAST AT KABQ WITH THE EAST WIND THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLVS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS LATE...
THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KTCC EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL...BUT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY WIN-OUT.

11

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ513>515-527>531.

&&

$$

33/52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 302113
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
313 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RELOCATED TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND A
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BACKING INTO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A HINT OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE STATE WHILE ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL SPILL THROUGH SOME CENTRAL VALLEY
AREAS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES WESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO
FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON THURSDAY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FUELING DAILY BOUTS OF STORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TRICKY FORECAST IS SHAPING UP THIS EVENING WITH SOME COMBATING
ELEMENTS IN THIS BACK DOOR FRONT REGIME. WITH THE HIGH NESTLED
OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF NM...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
STRENGTHENED AT THE OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE STATE WITH A PAIR OF
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
WAVE HAS PASSED WELL EAST OF NM WITH A SECONDARY ONE IN WY/CO. THE
MAJORITY OF FORCING WITH THIS SECONDARY FEATURE SHOULD BYPASS
NM...BUT THE FLOW INTO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WILL BE
QUITE BRISK WITH 15 TO 20 KT AT H7 AND ABOUT 30 KT AT H5. AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONT HAS ADVANCED WELL INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WITH FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE INCREASES IN DEWPOINTS. PWATS ARE
STILL HEALTHIEST IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NM AT 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES.

CONVECTIVE MODE AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOST DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE THIS EVENING
WHERE RELATIVELY COOL POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND...BUT
STILL SOME REMNANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. BEST FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING HAS ALREADY PASSED...SO INITIATION OF STORMS COULD BE
DIFFICULT OUTSIDE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. DESPITE THE FAST
STEERING FLOW AND QUICK 15 KT STORM MOTION IN THIS AREA...DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LOCAL WRF
AND HRRR MODEL INDICATE SOME LATE EVENING ACTIVITY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...BUT IT COULD TURN MORE SHOWERY/STRATIFORM BY
THAT POINT. MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OFF OF THE SANGRES...DRIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD BE AN
ISSUE IF ANY CELLS MOVE DOWN THE GREATER PECOS RIVER BASIN WHERE
FLOOD WATERS ARE STILL SLOWLY RECEDING WITH SATURATED SOILS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT AN UPTICK IN STORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS JUMPING THE
RIO GRANDE TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GAP WIND
WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE AS FRONT SPILLS THROUGH TAOS
CANYON...GLORIETA PASS...TIJERAS CANYON...ABO PASS...AND BENADO
GAP NEAR CARRIZOZO. GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THESE
LOCALES.

THURSDAY THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
RANGES OF THE STATE. STORMS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE FAR EASTERN BORDER OF NM WILL LIKELY
SEE MINIMAL ACTIVITY AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE IN THE
COOLER POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ALMOST STATEWIDE...WITH READINGS DIPPING BELOW AVERAGE IN ALL
AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE AZ BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE NORTHWESTWARD INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
NORTHWESTERLIES TO RELAX SOME. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN STORM
MOTION...POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT SINCE PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ON
HAND. THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN
TOO STABLE TO PRODUCE MANY STORMS...BUT REMAINING AREAS WILL BE
QUITE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE BUILT INTO THE
FORECAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DECENT STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY LEANING BACK OVER NM AND TEMPERATURES TRYING TO CREEP
BACK TOWARD AVERAGE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. A
BACKDOOR FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING PROGRESS DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WILL PROVIDE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING THERE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH WEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING THEN OUT BEYOND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY TOMORROW MORNING...RECHARGING MOISTURE AND
RENEWING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN/HIGHLANDS WESTWARD. WETTING RAINS ARE A GOOD BET
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE CENTRAL AND WEST FROM THU-SUN. STORM MOTION
WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS SURE BET WITH PWATS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT VENT
RATES WILL TAKE A HIT BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST TOMORROW. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT TRENDS
ARE EVER SO SLIGHT.

BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALLING TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA AND THE
UPPER HIGH SQUASHED TO THE SW. ASSUMING THIS WORKS-OUT...THE TREND
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WOULD BE A COOLING ONE WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND WETTING RAINS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS PREVAILING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KLVS AND KTCC AND
WILL PUSH THROUGH KSAF AND KROW AROUND/AFTER 00Z...THEN THROUGH
KABQ BY 02Z. THE PEAK PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
KABQ/KAEG/SAF/KROW WILL BE BETWEEN 00-04Z AS THE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST. GUSTS TO 34KTS ARE FORECAST AT KABQ WITH THE EAST WIND THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLVS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS LATE...
THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KTCC EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL...BUT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY WIN-OUT.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  89  63  89 /  20  10  20  30
DULCE...........................  53  78  53  79 /  40  10  40  50
CUBA............................  55  81  55  82 /  50  60  50  60
GALLUP..........................  59  87  58  86 /  20  10  30  30
EL MORRO........................  55  80  54  79 /  30  50  50  50
GRANTS..........................  57  83  57  82 /  40  40  60  50
QUEMADO.........................  58  81  57  80 /  30  50  50  50
GLENWOOD........................  60  88  59  87 /  20  20  30  40
CHAMA...........................  48  74  47  75 /  60  60  50  70
LOS ALAMOS......................  57  75  56  75 /  60  30  50  60
PECOS...........................  54  72  53  72 /  70  50  50  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  52  73  51  73 /  70  20  50  70
RED RIVER.......................  43  64  44  63 /  70  50  50  80
ANGEL FIRE......................  46  68  43  68 /  70  40  50  70
TAOS............................  52  74  52  75 /  40  10  50  60
MORA............................  51  70  50  70 /  70  50  50  70
ESPANOLA........................  60  80  58  80 /  50  10  50  40
SANTA FE........................  58  75  57  75 /  50  20  50  60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  58  78  59  79 /  40  10  50  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  82  63  81 /  30  10  50  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  66  84  66  83 /  30  10  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  86  61  85 /  40  10  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  86  62  85 /  40  10  40  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  63  86  64  84 /  40  10  40  40
RIO RANCHO......................  65  86  65  85 /  40  10  40  40
SOCORRO.........................  66  89  66  86 /  30  10  40  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  80  58  77 /  40  30  50  60
TIJERAS.........................  58  79  59  79 /  40  20  50  60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  55  82  56  81 /  60  30  50  60
CLINES CORNERS..................  53  73  57  73 /  60  30  50  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  77  59  76 /  60  30  50  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  82  62  80 /  20  10  40  50
RUIDOSO.........................  52  74  53  72 /  50  40  50  70
CAPULIN.........................  53  70  54  70 /  60  30  50  60
RATON...........................  55  73  56  73 /  60  30  50  50
SPRINGER........................  56  74  58  75 /  60  30  50  50
LAS VEGAS.......................  51  72  54  71 /  60  40  50  60
CLAYTON.........................  56  77  59  78 /  40   5  20  20
ROY.............................  56  74  59  73 /  60  20  40  50
CONCHAS.........................  61  80  63  80 /  40  10  30  40
SANTA ROSA......................  61  79  62  77 /  50  20  40  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  60  81  62  82 /  30   5  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  57  78  60  79 /  40   5  20  20
PORTALES........................  59  80  61  81 /  40   5  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  62  80  64  78 /  40  10  30  30
ROSWELL.........................  65  84  67  83 /  40  20  30  20
PICACHO.........................  61  78  63  75 /  50  20  40  50
ELK.............................  58  74  58  70 /  60  40  50  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ513>515-527>531.

&&

$$

52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 302113
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
313 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RELOCATED TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND A
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BACKING INTO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A HINT OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE STATE WHILE ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL SPILL THROUGH SOME CENTRAL VALLEY
AREAS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES WESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO
FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON THURSDAY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FUELING DAILY BOUTS OF STORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TRICKY FORECAST IS SHAPING UP THIS EVENING WITH SOME COMBATING
ELEMENTS IN THIS BACK DOOR FRONT REGIME. WITH THE HIGH NESTLED
OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF NM...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
STRENGTHENED AT THE OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE STATE WITH A PAIR OF
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
WAVE HAS PASSED WELL EAST OF NM WITH A SECONDARY ONE IN WY/CO. THE
MAJORITY OF FORCING WITH THIS SECONDARY FEATURE SHOULD BYPASS
NM...BUT THE FLOW INTO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WILL BE
QUITE BRISK WITH 15 TO 20 KT AT H7 AND ABOUT 30 KT AT H5. AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONT HAS ADVANCED WELL INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WITH FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE INCREASES IN DEWPOINTS. PWATS ARE
STILL HEALTHIEST IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NM AT 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES.

CONVECTIVE MODE AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOST DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE THIS EVENING
WHERE RELATIVELY COOL POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND...BUT
STILL SOME REMNANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. BEST FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING HAS ALREADY PASSED...SO INITIATION OF STORMS COULD BE
DIFFICULT OUTSIDE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. DESPITE THE FAST
STEERING FLOW AND QUICK 15 KT STORM MOTION IN THIS AREA...DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LOCAL WRF
AND HRRR MODEL INDICATE SOME LATE EVENING ACTIVITY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...BUT IT COULD TURN MORE SHOWERY/STRATIFORM BY
THAT POINT. MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OFF OF THE SANGRES...DRIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD BE AN
ISSUE IF ANY CELLS MOVE DOWN THE GREATER PECOS RIVER BASIN WHERE
FLOOD WATERS ARE STILL SLOWLY RECEDING WITH SATURATED SOILS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT AN UPTICK IN STORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS JUMPING THE
RIO GRANDE TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GAP WIND
WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE AS FRONT SPILLS THROUGH TAOS
CANYON...GLORIETA PASS...TIJERAS CANYON...ABO PASS...AND BENADO
GAP NEAR CARRIZOZO. GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THESE
LOCALES.

THURSDAY THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
RANGES OF THE STATE. STORMS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE FAR EASTERN BORDER OF NM WILL LIKELY
SEE MINIMAL ACTIVITY AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE IN THE
COOLER POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ALMOST STATEWIDE...WITH READINGS DIPPING BELOW AVERAGE IN ALL
AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE AZ BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE NORTHWESTWARD INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
NORTHWESTERLIES TO RELAX SOME. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN STORM
MOTION...POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT SINCE PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ON
HAND. THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN
TOO STABLE TO PRODUCE MANY STORMS...BUT REMAINING AREAS WILL BE
QUITE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE BUILT INTO THE
FORECAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DECENT STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY LEANING BACK OVER NM AND TEMPERATURES TRYING TO CREEP
BACK TOWARD AVERAGE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. A
BACKDOOR FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING PROGRESS DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WILL PROVIDE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING THERE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH WEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING THEN OUT BEYOND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY TOMORROW MORNING...RECHARGING MOISTURE AND
RENEWING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN/HIGHLANDS WESTWARD. WETTING RAINS ARE A GOOD BET
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE CENTRAL AND WEST FROM THU-SUN. STORM MOTION
WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS SURE BET WITH PWATS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT VENT
RATES WILL TAKE A HIT BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST TOMORROW. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT TRENDS
ARE EVER SO SLIGHT.

BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALLING TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA AND THE
UPPER HIGH SQUASHED TO THE SW. ASSUMING THIS WORKS-OUT...THE TREND
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WOULD BE A COOLING ONE WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND WETTING RAINS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS PREVAILING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KLVS AND KTCC AND
WILL PUSH THROUGH KSAF AND KROW AROUND/AFTER 00Z...THEN THROUGH
KABQ BY 02Z. THE PEAK PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
KABQ/KAEG/SAF/KROW WILL BE BETWEEN 00-04Z AS THE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST. GUSTS TO 34KTS ARE FORECAST AT KABQ WITH THE EAST WIND THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLVS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS LATE...
THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KTCC EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL...BUT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY WIN-OUT.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  89  63  89 /  20  10  20  30
DULCE...........................  53  78  53  79 /  40  10  40  50
CUBA............................  55  81  55  82 /  50  60  50  60
GALLUP..........................  59  87  58  86 /  20  10  30  30
EL MORRO........................  55  80  54  79 /  30  50  50  50
GRANTS..........................  57  83  57  82 /  40  40  60  50
QUEMADO.........................  58  81  57  80 /  30  50  50  50
GLENWOOD........................  60  88  59  87 /  20  20  30  40
CHAMA...........................  48  74  47  75 /  60  60  50  70
LOS ALAMOS......................  57  75  56  75 /  60  30  50  60
PECOS...........................  54  72  53  72 /  70  50  50  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  52  73  51  73 /  70  20  50  70
RED RIVER.......................  43  64  44  63 /  70  50  50  80
ANGEL FIRE......................  46  68  43  68 /  70  40  50  70
TAOS............................  52  74  52  75 /  40  10  50  60
MORA............................  51  70  50  70 /  70  50  50  70
ESPANOLA........................  60  80  58  80 /  50  10  50  40
SANTA FE........................  58  75  57  75 /  50  20  50  60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  58  78  59  79 /  40  10  50  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  82  63  81 /  30  10  50  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  66  84  66  83 /  30  10  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  86  61  85 /  40  10  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  86  62  85 /  40  10  40  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  63  86  64  84 /  40  10  40  40
RIO RANCHO......................  65  86  65  85 /  40  10  40  40
SOCORRO.........................  66  89  66  86 /  30  10  40  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  80  58  77 /  40  30  50  60
TIJERAS.........................  58  79  59  79 /  40  20  50  60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  55  82  56  81 /  60  30  50  60
CLINES CORNERS..................  53  73  57  73 /  60  30  50  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  77  59  76 /  60  30  50  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  82  62  80 /  20  10  40  50
RUIDOSO.........................  52  74  53  72 /  50  40  50  70
CAPULIN.........................  53  70  54  70 /  60  30  50  60
RATON...........................  55  73  56  73 /  60  30  50  50
SPRINGER........................  56  74  58  75 /  60  30  50  50
LAS VEGAS.......................  51  72  54  71 /  60  40  50  60
CLAYTON.........................  56  77  59  78 /  40   5  20  20
ROY.............................  56  74  59  73 /  60  20  40  50
CONCHAS.........................  61  80  63  80 /  40  10  30  40
SANTA ROSA......................  61  79  62  77 /  50  20  40  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  60  81  62  82 /  30   5  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  57  78  60  79 /  40   5  20  20
PORTALES........................  59  80  61  81 /  40   5  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  62  80  64  78 /  40  10  30  30
ROSWELL.........................  65  84  67  83 /  40  20  30  20
PICACHO.........................  61  78  63  75 /  50  20  40  50
ELK.............................  58  74  58  70 /  60  40  50  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ513>515-527>531.

&&

$$

52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 302113
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
313 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RELOCATED TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND A
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BACKING INTO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A HINT OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE STATE WHILE ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL SPILL THROUGH SOME CENTRAL VALLEY
AREAS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES WESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO
FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON THURSDAY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FUELING DAILY BOUTS OF STORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TRICKY FORECAST IS SHAPING UP THIS EVENING WITH SOME COMBATING
ELEMENTS IN THIS BACK DOOR FRONT REGIME. WITH THE HIGH NESTLED
OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF NM...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
STRENGTHENED AT THE OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE STATE WITH A PAIR OF
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
WAVE HAS PASSED WELL EAST OF NM WITH A SECONDARY ONE IN WY/CO. THE
MAJORITY OF FORCING WITH THIS SECONDARY FEATURE SHOULD BYPASS
NM...BUT THE FLOW INTO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WILL BE
QUITE BRISK WITH 15 TO 20 KT AT H7 AND ABOUT 30 KT AT H5. AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONT HAS ADVANCED WELL INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WITH FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE INCREASES IN DEWPOINTS. PWATS ARE
STILL HEALTHIEST IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NM AT 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES.

CONVECTIVE MODE AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOST DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE THIS EVENING
WHERE RELATIVELY COOL POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND...BUT
STILL SOME REMNANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. BEST FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING HAS ALREADY PASSED...SO INITIATION OF STORMS COULD BE
DIFFICULT OUTSIDE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. DESPITE THE FAST
STEERING FLOW AND QUICK 15 KT STORM MOTION IN THIS AREA...DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LOCAL WRF
AND HRRR MODEL INDICATE SOME LATE EVENING ACTIVITY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...BUT IT COULD TURN MORE SHOWERY/STRATIFORM BY
THAT POINT. MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OFF OF THE SANGRES...DRIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD BE AN
ISSUE IF ANY CELLS MOVE DOWN THE GREATER PECOS RIVER BASIN WHERE
FLOOD WATERS ARE STILL SLOWLY RECEDING WITH SATURATED SOILS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT AN UPTICK IN STORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS JUMPING THE
RIO GRANDE TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GAP WIND
WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE AS FRONT SPILLS THROUGH TAOS
CANYON...GLORIETA PASS...TIJERAS CANYON...ABO PASS...AND BENADO
GAP NEAR CARRIZOZO. GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THESE
LOCALES.

THURSDAY THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
RANGES OF THE STATE. STORMS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE FAR EASTERN BORDER OF NM WILL LIKELY
SEE MINIMAL ACTIVITY AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE IN THE
COOLER POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ALMOST STATEWIDE...WITH READINGS DIPPING BELOW AVERAGE IN ALL
AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE AZ BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE NORTHWESTWARD INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
NORTHWESTERLIES TO RELAX SOME. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN STORM
MOTION...POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT SINCE PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ON
HAND. THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN
TOO STABLE TO PRODUCE MANY STORMS...BUT REMAINING AREAS WILL BE
QUITE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE BUILT INTO THE
FORECAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DECENT STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY LEANING BACK OVER NM AND TEMPERATURES TRYING TO CREEP
BACK TOWARD AVERAGE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. A
BACKDOOR FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING PROGRESS DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WILL PROVIDE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING THERE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH WEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING THEN OUT BEYOND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY TOMORROW MORNING...RECHARGING MOISTURE AND
RENEWING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN/HIGHLANDS WESTWARD. WETTING RAINS ARE A GOOD BET
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE CENTRAL AND WEST FROM THU-SUN. STORM MOTION
WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS SURE BET WITH PWATS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT VENT
RATES WILL TAKE A HIT BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST TOMORROW. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT TRENDS
ARE EVER SO SLIGHT.

BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALLING TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA AND THE
UPPER HIGH SQUASHED TO THE SW. ASSUMING THIS WORKS-OUT...THE TREND
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WOULD BE A COOLING ONE WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND WETTING RAINS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS PREVAILING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KLVS AND KTCC AND
WILL PUSH THROUGH KSAF AND KROW AROUND/AFTER 00Z...THEN THROUGH
KABQ BY 02Z. THE PEAK PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
KABQ/KAEG/SAF/KROW WILL BE BETWEEN 00-04Z AS THE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST. GUSTS TO 34KTS ARE FORECAST AT KABQ WITH THE EAST WIND THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLVS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS LATE...
THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KTCC EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL...BUT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY WIN-OUT.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  89  63  89 /  20  10  20  30
DULCE...........................  53  78  53  79 /  40  10  40  50
CUBA............................  55  81  55  82 /  50  60  50  60
GALLUP..........................  59  87  58  86 /  20  10  30  30
EL MORRO........................  55  80  54  79 /  30  50  50  50
GRANTS..........................  57  83  57  82 /  40  40  60  50
QUEMADO.........................  58  81  57  80 /  30  50  50  50
GLENWOOD........................  60  88  59  87 /  20  20  30  40
CHAMA...........................  48  74  47  75 /  60  60  50  70
LOS ALAMOS......................  57  75  56  75 /  60  30  50  60
PECOS...........................  54  72  53  72 /  70  50  50  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  52  73  51  73 /  70  20  50  70
RED RIVER.......................  43  64  44  63 /  70  50  50  80
ANGEL FIRE......................  46  68  43  68 /  70  40  50  70
TAOS............................  52  74  52  75 /  40  10  50  60
MORA............................  51  70  50  70 /  70  50  50  70
ESPANOLA........................  60  80  58  80 /  50  10  50  40
SANTA FE........................  58  75  57  75 /  50  20  50  60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  58  78  59  79 /  40  10  50  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  82  63  81 /  30  10  50  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  66  84  66  83 /  30  10  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  86  61  85 /  40  10  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  86  62  85 /  40  10  40  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  63  86  64  84 /  40  10  40  40
RIO RANCHO......................  65  86  65  85 /  40  10  40  40
SOCORRO.........................  66  89  66  86 /  30  10  40  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  80  58  77 /  40  30  50  60
TIJERAS.........................  58  79  59  79 /  40  20  50  60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  55  82  56  81 /  60  30  50  60
CLINES CORNERS..................  53  73  57  73 /  60  30  50  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  77  59  76 /  60  30  50  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  82  62  80 /  20  10  40  50
RUIDOSO.........................  52  74  53  72 /  50  40  50  70
CAPULIN.........................  53  70  54  70 /  60  30  50  60
RATON...........................  55  73  56  73 /  60  30  50  50
SPRINGER........................  56  74  58  75 /  60  30  50  50
LAS VEGAS.......................  51  72  54  71 /  60  40  50  60
CLAYTON.........................  56  77  59  78 /  40   5  20  20
ROY.............................  56  74  59  73 /  60  20  40  50
CONCHAS.........................  61  80  63  80 /  40  10  30  40
SANTA ROSA......................  61  79  62  77 /  50  20  40  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  60  81  62  82 /  30   5  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  57  78  60  79 /  40   5  20  20
PORTALES........................  59  80  61  81 /  40   5  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  62  80  64  78 /  40  10  30  30
ROSWELL.........................  65  84  67  83 /  40  20  30  20
PICACHO.........................  61  78  63  75 /  50  20  40  50
ELK.............................  58  74  58  70 /  60  40  50  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ513>515-527>531.

&&

$$

52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 302113
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
313 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HAS RELOCATED TO SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO...AND A
COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY BACKING INTO THE EASTERN PARTS OF THE
STATE. THIS SURFACE BOUNDARY WILL PROVIDE A HINT OF ADDITIONAL
MOISTURE TO THE STATE WHILE ACTING AS A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON
THURSDAY. SOME GUSTY WINDS WILL SPILL THROUGH SOME CENTRAL VALLEY
AREAS TONIGHT AS THE FRONT ADVANCES WESTWARD TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE CONSEQUENTLY EXPECTED TO
FAVOR AREAS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE ON THURSDAY WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE FUELING DAILY BOUTS OF STORMS THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A TRICKY FORECAST IS SHAPING UP THIS EVENING WITH SOME COMBATING
ELEMENTS IN THIS BACK DOOR FRONT REGIME. WITH THE HIGH NESTLED
OVER THE BOOTHEEL OF NM...THE NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT HAS
STRENGTHENED AT THE OPPOSITE CORNER OF THE STATE WITH A PAIR OF
WELL-DEFINED SHORT WAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW. THE FIRST
WAVE HAS PASSED WELL EAST OF NM WITH A SECONDARY ONE IN WY/CO. THE
MAJORITY OF FORCING WITH THIS SECONDARY FEATURE SHOULD BYPASS
NM...BUT THE FLOW INTO NORTHEASTERN PARTS OF THE STATE WILL BE
QUITE BRISK WITH 15 TO 20 KT AT H7 AND ABOUT 30 KT AT H5. AT THE
SURFACE THE FRONT HAS ADVANCED WELL INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
STATE WITH FAIRLY NEGLIGIBLE INCREASES IN DEWPOINTS. PWATS ARE
STILL HEALTHIEST IN THE EASTERN HALF OF NM AT 1.1 TO 1.4 INCHES.

CONVECTIVE MODE AND PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WILL BE MOST DIFFICULT
TO PINPOINT IN THE NORTHEASTERN QUADRANT OF THE STATE THIS EVENING
WHERE RELATIVELY COOL POST FRONTAL TEMPERATURES ARE FOUND...BUT
STILL SOME REMNANT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. BEST FRONTOGENETICAL
FORCING HAS ALREADY PASSED...SO INITIATION OF STORMS COULD BE
DIFFICULT OUTSIDE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. DESPITE THE FAST
STEERING FLOW AND QUICK 15 KT STORM MOTION IN THIS AREA...DO NOT
HAVE ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO CANCEL THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. LOCAL WRF
AND HRRR MODEL INDICATE SOME LATE EVENING ACTIVITY IN THE
NORTHEASTERN PLAINS...BUT IT COULD TURN MORE SHOWERY/STRATIFORM BY
THAT POINT. MORE VIGOROUS STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DEVELOP
OFF OF THE SANGRES...DRIFTING SOUTH SOUTHEAST. THIS COULD BE AN
ISSUE IF ANY CELLS MOVE DOWN THE GREATER PECOS RIVER BASIN WHERE
FLOOD WATERS ARE STILL SLOWLY RECEDING WITH SATURATED SOILS.
OTHERWISE EXPECT AN UPTICK IN STORMS DEVELOPING TOWARD THE CENTRAL
TO SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS JUMPING THE
RIO GRANDE TOWARD THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEFORE MIDNIGHT. GAP WIND
WILL ALSO TAKE SHAPE AS FRONT SPILLS THROUGH TAOS
CANYON...GLORIETA PASS...TIJERAS CANYON...ABO PASS...AND BENADO
GAP NEAR CARRIZOZO. GUSTS OF 30 TO 45 MPH WILL BE COMMON IN THESE
LOCALES.

THURSDAY THE FOCUS FOR STORMS SHOULD SHIFT TO THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN SLOPES...INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
RANGES OF THE STATE. STORMS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST
AT ABOUT 10 TO 15 MPH. THE FAR EASTERN BORDER OF NM WILL LIKELY
SEE MINIMAL ACTIVITY AS CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN STABLE IN THE
COOLER POST FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
ALMOST STATEWIDE...WITH READINGS DIPPING BELOW AVERAGE IN ALL
AREAS EXCEPT ALONG THE AZ BORDER.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE NORTHWESTWARD INTO FRIDAY...ALLOWING THE
NORTHWESTERLIES TO RELAX SOME. THIS WILL SLOW DOWN STORM
MOTION...POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
FLOODING THREAT SINCE PLENTY OF RECYCLABLE MOISTURE WILL BE ON
HAND. THE FAR EASTERN TIER OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL AGAIN REMAIN
TOO STABLE TO PRODUCE MANY STORMS...BUT REMAINING AREAS WILL BE
QUITE ACTIVE WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS COVERAGE BUILT INTO THE
FORECAST FRIDAY. MOISTURE SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR
DECENT STORM COVERAGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY LEANING BACK OVER NM AND TEMPERATURES TRYING TO CREEP
BACK TOWARD AVERAGE.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN LOOKS TO CONTINUE FOR THE FORESEEABLE
FUTURE WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL THROUGH AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND BEFORE TRENDING BACK UP CLOSER TO SEASONAL AVERAGES. A
BACKDOOR FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING PROGRESS DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS...WILL PROVIDE SOME FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING THERE
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH WEST THROUGH THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS EVENING THEN OUT BEYOND THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY TOMORROW MORNING...RECHARGING MOISTURE AND
RENEWING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH FRIDAY FROM THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN/HIGHLANDS WESTWARD. WETTING RAINS ARE A GOOD BET
JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE CENTRAL AND WEST FROM THU-SUN. STORM MOTION
WILL BE DECREASING FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND...SO LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL IS SURE BET WITH PWATS REMAINING AT OR ABOVE NORMAL. NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TRENDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND...BUT VENT
RATES WILL TAKE A HIT BEHIND THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
EAST TOMORROW. SOME DRYING IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEK...MAINLY SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EAST AS HIGHS CLIMB BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT TRENDS
ARE EVER SO SLIGHT.

BOTH THE 12Z ECMWF AND GFS SHOW PRESSURE HEIGHTS FALLING TOWARD THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH A TROUGH MOVING EAST OVER THE AREA AND THE
UPPER HIGH SQUASHED TO THE SW. ASSUMING THIS WORKS-OUT...THE TREND
FROM MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK WOULD BE A COOLING ONE WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND WETTING RAINS.

11

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS PREVAILING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KLVS AND KTCC AND
WILL PUSH THROUGH KSAF AND KROW AROUND/AFTER 00Z...THEN THROUGH
KABQ BY 02Z. THE PEAK PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
KABQ/KAEG/SAF/KROW WILL BE BETWEEN 00-04Z AS THE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST. GUSTS TO 34KTS ARE FORECAST AT KABQ WITH THE EAST WIND THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLVS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS LATE...
THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KTCC EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL...BUT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY WIN-OUT.

11

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  64  89  63  89 /  20  10  20  30
DULCE...........................  53  78  53  79 /  40  10  40  50
CUBA............................  55  81  55  82 /  50  60  50  60
GALLUP..........................  59  87  58  86 /  20  10  30  30
EL MORRO........................  55  80  54  79 /  30  50  50  50
GRANTS..........................  57  83  57  82 /  40  40  60  50
QUEMADO.........................  58  81  57  80 /  30  50  50  50
GLENWOOD........................  60  88  59  87 /  20  20  30  40
CHAMA...........................  48  74  47  75 /  60  60  50  70
LOS ALAMOS......................  57  75  56  75 /  60  30  50  60
PECOS...........................  54  72  53  72 /  70  50  50  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  52  73  51  73 /  70  20  50  70
RED RIVER.......................  43  64  44  63 /  70  50  50  80
ANGEL FIRE......................  46  68  43  68 /  70  40  50  70
TAOS............................  52  74  52  75 /  40  10  50  60
MORA............................  51  70  50  70 /  70  50  50  70
ESPANOLA........................  60  80  58  80 /  50  10  50  40
SANTA FE........................  58  75  57  75 /  50  20  50  60
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  58  78  59  79 /  40  10  50  50
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  82  63  81 /  30  10  50  50
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  66  84  66  83 /  30  10  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  86  61  85 /  40  10  40  40
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  86  62  85 /  40  10  40  40
LOS LUNAS.......................  63  86  64  84 /  40  10  40  40
RIO RANCHO......................  65  86  65  85 /  40  10  40  40
SOCORRO.........................  66  89  66  86 /  30  10  40  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  80  58  77 /  40  30  50  60
TIJERAS.........................  58  79  59  79 /  40  20  50  60
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  55  82  56  81 /  60  30  50  60
CLINES CORNERS..................  53  73  57  73 /  60  30  50  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  77  59  76 /  60  30  50  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  82  62  80 /  20  10  40  50
RUIDOSO.........................  52  74  53  72 /  50  40  50  70
CAPULIN.........................  53  70  54  70 /  60  30  50  60
RATON...........................  55  73  56  73 /  60  30  50  50
SPRINGER........................  56  74  58  75 /  60  30  50  50
LAS VEGAS.......................  51  72  54  71 /  60  40  50  60
CLAYTON.........................  56  77  59  78 /  40   5  20  20
ROY.............................  56  74  59  73 /  60  20  40  50
CONCHAS.........................  61  80  63  80 /  40  10  30  40
SANTA ROSA......................  61  79  62  77 /  50  20  40  50
TUCUMCARI.......................  60  81  62  82 /  30   5  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  57  78  60  79 /  40   5  20  20
PORTALES........................  59  80  61  81 /  40   5  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  62  80  64  78 /  40  10  30  30
ROSWELL.........................  65  84  67  83 /  40  20  30  20
PICACHO.........................  61  78  63  75 /  50  20  40  50
ELK.............................  58  74  58  70 /  60  40  50  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ513>515-527>531.

&&

$$

52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 301744 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1144 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS PREVAILING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KLVS AND KTCC AND
WILL PUSH THROUGH KSAF AND KROW AROUND/AFTER 00Z...THEN THROUGH
KABQ BY 02Z. THE PEAK PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
KABQ/KAEG/SAF/KROW WILL BE BETWEEN 00-04Z AS THE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST. GUSTS TO 34KTS ARE FORECAST AT KABQ WITH THE EAST WIND THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLVS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS LATE...
THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KTCC EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL...BUT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY WIN-OUT.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...406 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY...THEN SHIFTING TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ESPECIALLY HEIGHTENED FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS AS VERY MOIST AIR IS CARRIED WESTWARD BY EAST TO
WEST WINDS THAT WILL TURN LOCALLY WINDY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND UPPER TULAROSA BASIN. A DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TAIL-END OF EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDING FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER MAINLY NC/NE NEW
MEXICO ALBEIT FAR MORE ISOLATED THAN PAST FEW NIGHTS...WHICH IS A
LITTLE SURPRISING GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY POISED JUST
TO OUR NORTH. FOCUS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE THIS NEXT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NC/NE NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...
SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT WEST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
MAKING A STRONGER DIURNAL SURGE WESTWARD THIS EVENING.

RECALL THE LAST BACKDOOR FRONT THIS PAST SUNDAY THAT KICKED OFF
OUR CURRENT MONSOON BURST PATTERN ARRIVED MUCH FASTER THAN
ADVERTISED AND RESULTED IN A BIG INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM TAOS
TO SANTA FE TO THE ABQ METRO. THE ONE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE WITH
THIS FRONT IS THAT THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING BOUNDARY
/E.G. RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ HAS BEEN WORKED OVER AND TEMPS ARE MUCH
COOLER AND THUS NOT CONTRIBUTING TO AS A SIGNIFICANT NE-SE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THAT SAID...THE INCOMING AIR MASS IS PRETTY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THIS FRONT IS DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN LAST
WEEK. SO BIG CHANGES AHEAD IN THE SHORT TERM. WILL REPOST FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NC/NE AREAS TODAY/EVENING BUT THINKING THE FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN TUCKED CLOSER TO THE EAST SLOPES VS.
THE FAR NE PLAINS ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EASTERLY GAP
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK WESTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING...AND GOING INTO THURSDAY...A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THUS...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM RAINS WILL SET UP FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE
EAST SLOPES OF TE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE ESPECIALLY ENHANCED OVER THE WC/SW MOUNTAINS AND THESE
AREAS COULD REALLY EXPERIENCE A BIG DAY THU PM TO INCLUDE THE
WHITEWATER-BALDY BURN SCAR. ALSO HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR THE SC
HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE EAST FLANKS OF THE JEMEZ AND
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR CHAMA.

LITTLE TIME TO LOOK AT EXTENDED PERIODS IN DEPTH ON THIS SHIFT...BUT
ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN TO CONTINUE. PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS
TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BENEATH WEAKENING STEERING WINDS
ALOFT. OVERALL JUST A FAVORABLE FORECAST FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITIES SHOULD DECREASE TODAY MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NE
DUE TO A GUSTY AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUNCH IN
FROM THE NE DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE DECREASE IN
HUMIDITIES...WETTING FOOTPRINTS OF STORMS SHOULD BE SMALLER
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT TRIES TO
PUSH WESTWARD OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT...PROBABLY DUE TO STABLER POST
FRONTAL AIR. SINCE THE FRONT WILL CROSS NE AREAS DURING A MORE
STABLE PART OF THE DAY...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN THEIR LOOKS TO BE
DECREASING. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH A GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND TOWARD SUNSET AND
THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL BE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A FEW TO 10
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY. HIGHER POST FRONTAL HUMIDITIES
WILL FEED AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS SLOWLY FROM THE NW
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE...AND
ITS LONG DWELL TIME...SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION TO THE E SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FAVORING
LOCATIONS E OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE TX BORDER FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK OF BURN
SCAR FLASH FLOODING.

ANOTHER MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE NE WITH THE
EXITING UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON SATURDAY FAVORING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND POSSIBLY THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD KEEP RAIN
FROM BECOMING TOO HEAVY IN GENERAL...WITH SOME LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS.

A TRAIN OF EASTERLY WAVES IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SW NM AND CENTRAL AZ SUNDAY INTO THE COMING
WORK WEEK STEERING A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS PROBABLE EACH
DAY.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY...LOOK FOR READINGS TO BE BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS DUE TO THE FRONTS AND PERIODS
OF PRECIPITATION.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ513>515-527>531.

&&

$$

52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 301744 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1144 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR TERMINALS PREVAILING AND FORECAST TO PERSIST WITH A FEW
EXCEPTIONS. A BACKDOOR FRONT HAS PUSHED THROUGH KLVS AND KTCC AND
WILL PUSH THROUGH KSAF AND KROW AROUND/AFTER 00Z...THEN THROUGH
KABQ BY 02Z. THE PEAK PERIOD FOR POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM IMPACTS AT
KABQ/KAEG/SAF/KROW WILL BE BETWEEN 00-04Z AS THE FRONT INTERACTS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS MOVING SE OFF OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN TO THE
WEST. GUSTS TO 34KTS ARE FORECAST AT KABQ WITH THE EAST WIND THIS
EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. MVFR CIGS ARE FORECAST TO
DEVELOP TONIGHT AT KLVS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CIGS LATE...
THOUGH FORECAST CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAF. THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR MVFR CIGS TO DEVELOP AT KTCC EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING AS WELL...BUT A MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK MAY WIN-OUT.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...406 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY...THEN SHIFTING TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ESPECIALLY HEIGHTENED FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS AS VERY MOIST AIR IS CARRIED WESTWARD BY EAST TO
WEST WINDS THAT WILL TURN LOCALLY WINDY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND UPPER TULAROSA BASIN. A DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TAIL-END OF EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDING FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER MAINLY NC/NE NEW
MEXICO ALBEIT FAR MORE ISOLATED THAN PAST FEW NIGHTS...WHICH IS A
LITTLE SURPRISING GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY POISED JUST
TO OUR NORTH. FOCUS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE THIS NEXT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NC/NE NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...
SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT WEST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
MAKING A STRONGER DIURNAL SURGE WESTWARD THIS EVENING.

RECALL THE LAST BACKDOOR FRONT THIS PAST SUNDAY THAT KICKED OFF
OUR CURRENT MONSOON BURST PATTERN ARRIVED MUCH FASTER THAN
ADVERTISED AND RESULTED IN A BIG INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM TAOS
TO SANTA FE TO THE ABQ METRO. THE ONE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE WITH
THIS FRONT IS THAT THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING BOUNDARY
/E.G. RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ HAS BEEN WORKED OVER AND TEMPS ARE MUCH
COOLER AND THUS NOT CONTRIBUTING TO AS A SIGNIFICANT NE-SE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THAT SAID...THE INCOMING AIR MASS IS PRETTY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THIS FRONT IS DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN LAST
WEEK. SO BIG CHANGES AHEAD IN THE SHORT TERM. WILL REPOST FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NC/NE AREAS TODAY/EVENING BUT THINKING THE FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN TUCKED CLOSER TO THE EAST SLOPES VS.
THE FAR NE PLAINS ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EASTERLY GAP
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK WESTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING...AND GOING INTO THURSDAY...A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THUS...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM RAINS WILL SET UP FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE
EAST SLOPES OF TE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE ESPECIALLY ENHANCED OVER THE WC/SW MOUNTAINS AND THESE
AREAS COULD REALLY EXPERIENCE A BIG DAY THU PM TO INCLUDE THE
WHITEWATER-BALDY BURN SCAR. ALSO HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR THE SC
HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE EAST FLANKS OF THE JEMEZ AND
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR CHAMA.

LITTLE TIME TO LOOK AT EXTENDED PERIODS IN DEPTH ON THIS SHIFT...BUT
ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN TO CONTINUE. PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS
TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BENEATH WEAKENING STEERING WINDS
ALOFT. OVERALL JUST A FAVORABLE FORECAST FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITIES SHOULD DECREASE TODAY MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NE
DUE TO A GUSTY AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUNCH IN
FROM THE NE DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE DECREASE IN
HUMIDITIES...WETTING FOOTPRINTS OF STORMS SHOULD BE SMALLER
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT TRIES TO
PUSH WESTWARD OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT...PROBABLY DUE TO STABLER POST
FRONTAL AIR. SINCE THE FRONT WILL CROSS NE AREAS DURING A MORE
STABLE PART OF THE DAY...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN THEIR LOOKS TO BE
DECREASING. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH A GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND TOWARD SUNSET AND
THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL BE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A FEW TO 10
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY. HIGHER POST FRONTAL HUMIDITIES
WILL FEED AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS SLOWLY FROM THE NW
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE...AND
ITS LONG DWELL TIME...SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION TO THE E SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FAVORING
LOCATIONS E OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE TX BORDER FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK OF BURN
SCAR FLASH FLOODING.

ANOTHER MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE NE WITH THE
EXITING UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON SATURDAY FAVORING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND POSSIBLY THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD KEEP RAIN
FROM BECOMING TOO HEAVY IN GENERAL...WITH SOME LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS.

A TRAIN OF EASTERLY WAVES IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SW NM AND CENTRAL AZ SUNDAY INTO THE COMING
WORK WEEK STEERING A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS PROBABLE EACH
DAY.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY...LOOK FOR READINGS TO BE BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS DUE TO THE FRONTS AND PERIODS
OF PRECIPITATION.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ513>515-527>531.

&&

$$

52





000
FXUS65 KABQ 301202 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
602 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY...THEN THROUGH GAPS IN THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN WITH A GUSTY E CANYON WIND TONIGHT. AN AVIATION
WEATHER WARNING COULD BE NEEDED AT KABQ FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT.
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE E SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND ESPECIALLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS FOR
SCT TO NMRS TSRA/SHRA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SECONDARY FOCUS FOR
STORMS SHOULD BE ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO
45 KT POSSIBLE. VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS INDICATES MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF
CONVECTION...BUT THIS CAN CHANGE. ALSO...MODELS INDICATE KLVS MAY
SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE
SANGRES. TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ENGULF THE PLAINS
WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...406 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY...THEN SHIFTING TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ESPECIALLY HEIGHTENED FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS AS VERY MOIST AIR IS CARRIED WESTWARD BY EAST TO
WEST WINDS THAT WILL TURN LOCALLY WINDY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND UPPER TULAROSA BASIN. A DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TAIL-END OF EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDING FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER MAINLY NC/NE NEW
MEXICO ALBEIT FAR MORE ISOLATED THAN PAST FEW NIGHTS...WHICH IS A
LITTLE SURPRISING GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY POISED JUST
TO OUR NORTH. FOCUS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE THIS NEXT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NC/NE NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...
SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT WEST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
MAKING A STRONGER DIURNAL SURGE WESTWARD THIS EVENING.

RECALL THE LAST BACKDOOR FRONT THIS PAST SUNDAY THAT KICKED OFF
OUR CURRENT MONSOON BURST PATTERN ARRIVED MUCH FASTER THAN
ADVERTISED AND RESULTED IN A BIG INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM TAOS
TO SANTA FE TO THE ABQ METRO. THE ONE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE WITH
THIS FRONT IS THAT THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING BOUNDARY
/E.G. RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ HAS BEEN WORKED OVER AND TEMPS ARE MUCH
COOLER AND THUS NOT CONTRIBUTING TO AS A SIGNIFICANT NE-SE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THAT SAID...THE INCOMING AIR MASS IS PRETTY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THIS FRONT IS DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN LAST
WEEK. SO BIG CHANGES AHEAD IN THE SHORT TERM. WILL REPOST FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NC/NE AREAS TODAY/EVENING BUT THINKING THE FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN TUCKED CLOSER TO THE EAST SLOPES VS.
THE FAR NE PLAINS ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EASTERLY GAP
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK WESTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING...AND GOING INTO THURSDAY...A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THUS...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM RAINS WILL SET UP FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE
EAST SLOPES OF TE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE ESPECIALLY ENHANCED OVER THE WC/SW MOUNTAINS AND THESE
AREAS COULD REALLY EXPERIENCE A BIG DAY THU PM TO INCLUDE THE
WHITEWATER-BALDY BURN SCAR. ALSO HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR THE SC
HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE EAST FLANKS OF THE JEMEZ AND
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR CHAMA.

LITTLE TIME TO LOOK AT EXTENDED PERIODS IN DEPTH ON THIS SHIFT...BUT
ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN TO CONTINUE. PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS
TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BENEATH WEAKENING STEERING WINDS
ALOFT. OVERALL JUST A FAVORABLE FORECAST FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITIES SHOULD DECREASE TODAY MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NE
DUE TO A GUSTY AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUNCH IN
FROM THE NE DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE DECREASE IN
HUMIDITIES...WETTING FOOTPRINTS OF STORMS SHOULD BE SMALLER
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT TRIES TO
PUSH WESTWARD OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT...PROBABLY DUE TO STABLER POST
FRONTAL AIR. SINCE THE FRONT WILL CROSS NE AREAS DURING A MORE
STABLE PART OF THE DAY...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN THEIR LOOKS TO BE
DECREASING. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH A GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND TOWARD SUNSET AND
THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL BE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A FEW TO 10
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY. HIGHER POST FRONTAL HUMIDITIES
WILL FEED AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS SLOWLY FROM THE NW
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE...AND
ITS LONG DWELL TIME...SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION TO THE E SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FAVORING
LOCATIONS E OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE TX BORDER FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK OF BURN
SCAR FLASH FLOODING.

ANOTHER MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE NE WITH THE
EXITING UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON SATURDAY FAVORING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND POSSIBLY THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD KEEP RAIN
FROM BECOMING TOO HEAVY IN GENERAL...WITH SOME LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS.

A TRAIN OF EASTERLY WAVES IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SW NM AND CENTRAL AZ SUNDAY INTO THE COMING
WORK WEEK STEERING A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS PROBABLE EACH
DAY.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY...LOOK FOR READINGS TO BE BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS DUE TO THE FRONTS AND PERIODS
OF PRECIPITATION.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ513>515-527>531.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 301202 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
602 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL DIVE
SOUTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY...THEN THROUGH GAPS IN THE
CENTRAL MT CHAIN WITH A GUSTY E CANYON WIND TONIGHT. AN AVIATION
WEATHER WARNING COULD BE NEEDED AT KABQ FOR E WIND GUSTS TO 35 KT.
THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD FAVOR THE E SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN AND ESPECIALLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS FOR
SCT TO NMRS TSRA/SHRA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A SECONDARY FOCUS FOR
STORMS SHOULD BE ALONG THE E SLOPES OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS THIS
EVENING. WET MICROBURSTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH ERRATIC WIND GUSTS TO
45 KT POSSIBLE. VCSH/VCTS IN TAFS INDICATES MOST LIKELY PERIOD OF
CONVECTION...BUT THIS CAN CHANGE. ALSO...MODELS INDICATE KLVS MAY
SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STORMS TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OFF THE
SANGRES. TONIGHT...WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS SHOULD ENGULF THE PLAINS
WITH MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS INTO THURSDAY MORNING.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...406 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY...THEN SHIFTING TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ESPECIALLY HEIGHTENED FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS AS VERY MOIST AIR IS CARRIED WESTWARD BY EAST TO
WEST WINDS THAT WILL TURN LOCALLY WINDY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND UPPER TULAROSA BASIN. A DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TAIL-END OF EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDING FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER MAINLY NC/NE NEW
MEXICO ALBEIT FAR MORE ISOLATED THAN PAST FEW NIGHTS...WHICH IS A
LITTLE SURPRISING GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY POISED JUST
TO OUR NORTH. FOCUS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE THIS NEXT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NC/NE NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...
SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT WEST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
MAKING A STRONGER DIURNAL SURGE WESTWARD THIS EVENING.

RECALL THE LAST BACKDOOR FRONT THIS PAST SUNDAY THAT KICKED OFF
OUR CURRENT MONSOON BURST PATTERN ARRIVED MUCH FASTER THAN
ADVERTISED AND RESULTED IN A BIG INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM TAOS
TO SANTA FE TO THE ABQ METRO. THE ONE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE WITH
THIS FRONT IS THAT THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING BOUNDARY
/E.G. RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ HAS BEEN WORKED OVER AND TEMPS ARE MUCH
COOLER AND THUS NOT CONTRIBUTING TO AS A SIGNIFICANT NE-SE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THAT SAID...THE INCOMING AIR MASS IS PRETTY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THIS FRONT IS DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN LAST
WEEK. SO BIG CHANGES AHEAD IN THE SHORT TERM. WILL REPOST FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NC/NE AREAS TODAY/EVENING BUT THINKING THE FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN TUCKED CLOSER TO THE EAST SLOPES VS.
THE FAR NE PLAINS ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EASTERLY GAP
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK WESTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING...AND GOING INTO THURSDAY...A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THUS...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM RAINS WILL SET UP FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE
EAST SLOPES OF TE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE ESPECIALLY ENHANCED OVER THE WC/SW MOUNTAINS AND THESE
AREAS COULD REALLY EXPERIENCE A BIG DAY THU PM TO INCLUDE THE
WHITEWATER-BALDY BURN SCAR. ALSO HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR THE SC
HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE EAST FLANKS OF THE JEMEZ AND
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR CHAMA.

LITTLE TIME TO LOOK AT EXTENDED PERIODS IN DEPTH ON THIS SHIFT...BUT
ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN TO CONTINUE. PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS
TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BENEATH WEAKENING STEERING WINDS
ALOFT. OVERALL JUST A FAVORABLE FORECAST FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITIES SHOULD DECREASE TODAY MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NE
DUE TO A GUSTY AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUNCH IN
FROM THE NE DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE DECREASE IN
HUMIDITIES...WETTING FOOTPRINTS OF STORMS SHOULD BE SMALLER
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT TRIES TO
PUSH WESTWARD OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT...PROBABLY DUE TO STABLER POST
FRONTAL AIR. SINCE THE FRONT WILL CROSS NE AREAS DURING A MORE
STABLE PART OF THE DAY...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN THEIR LOOKS TO BE
DECREASING. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH A GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND TOWARD SUNSET AND
THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL BE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A FEW TO 10
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY. HIGHER POST FRONTAL HUMIDITIES
WILL FEED AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS SLOWLY FROM THE NW
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE...AND
ITS LONG DWELL TIME...SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION TO THE E SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FAVORING
LOCATIONS E OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE TX BORDER FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK OF BURN
SCAR FLASH FLOODING.

ANOTHER MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE NE WITH THE
EXITING UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON SATURDAY FAVORING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND POSSIBLY THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD KEEP RAIN
FROM BECOMING TOO HEAVY IN GENERAL...WITH SOME LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS.

A TRAIN OF EASTERLY WAVES IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SW NM AND CENTRAL AZ SUNDAY INTO THE COMING
WORK WEEK STEERING A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS PROBABLE EACH
DAY.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY...LOOK FOR READINGS TO BE BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS DUE TO THE FRONTS AND PERIODS
OF PRECIPITATION.

44

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ513>515-527>531.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 301006
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
406 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY...THEN SHIFTING TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ESPECIALLY HEIGHTENED FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS AS VERY MOIST AIR IS CARRIED WESTWARD BY EAST TO
WEST WINDS THAT WILL TURN LOCALLY WINDY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND UPPER TULAROSA BASIN. A DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TAIL-END OF EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDING FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER MAINLY NC/NE NEW
MEXICO ALBEIT FAR MORE ISOLATED THAN PAST FEW NIGHTS...WHICH IS A
LITTLE SURPRISING GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY POISED JUST
TO OUR NORTH. FOCUS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE THIS NEXT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NC/NE NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...
SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT WEST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
MAKING A STRONGER DIURNAL SURGE WESTWARD THIS EVENING.

RECALL THE LAST BACKDOOR FRONT THIS PAST SUNDAY THAT KICKED OFF
OUR CURRENT MONSOON BURST PATTERN ARRIVED MUCH FASTER THAN
ADVERTISED AND RESULTED IN A BIG INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM TAOS
TO SANTA FE TO THE ABQ METRO. THE ONE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE WITH
THIS FRONT IS THAT THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING BOUNDARY
/E.G. RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ HAS BEEN WORKED OVER AND TEMPS ARE MUCH
COOLER AND THUS NOT CONTRIBUTING TO AS A SIGNIFICANT NE-SE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THAT SAID...THE INCOMING AIR MASS IS PRETTY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THIS FRONT IS DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN LAST
WEEK. SO BIG CHANGES AHEAD IN THE SHORT TERM. WILL REPOST FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NC/NE AREAS TODAY/EVENING BUT THINKING THE FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN TUCKED CLOSER TO THE EAST SLOPES VS.
THE FAR NE PLAINS ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EASTERLY GAP
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK WESTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING...AND GOING INTO THURSDAY...A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THUS...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM RAINS WILL SET UP FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE
EAST SLOPES OF TE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE ESPECIALLY ENHANCED OVER THE WC/SW MOUNTAINS AND THESE
AREAS COULD REALLY EXPERIENCE A BIG DAY THU PM TO INCLUDE THE
WHITEWATER-BALDY BURN SCAR. ALSO HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR THE SC
HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE EAST FLANKS OF THE JEMEZ AND
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR CHAMA.

LITTLE TIME TO LOOK AT EXTENDED PERIODS IN DEPTH ON THIS SHIFT...BUT
ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN TO CONTINUE. PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS
TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BENEATH WEAKENING STEERING WINDS
ALOFT. OVERALL JUST A FAVORABLE FORECAST FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITIES SHOULD DECREASE TODAY MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NE
DUE TO A GUSTY AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUNCH IN
FROM THE NE DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE DECREASE IN
HUMIDITIES...WETTING FOOTPRINTS OF STORMS SHOULD BE SMALLER
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT TRIES TO
PUSH WESTWARD OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT...PROBABLY DUE TO STABLER POST
FRONTAL AIR. SINCE THE FRONT WILL CROSS NE AREAS DURING A MORE
STABLE PART OF THE DAY...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN THEIR LOOKS TO BE
DECREASING. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH A GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND TOWARD SUNSET AND
THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL BE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A FEW TO 10
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY. HIGHER POST FRONTAL HUMIDITIES
WILL FEED AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS SLOWLY FROM THE NW
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE...AND
ITS LONG DWELL TIME...SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION TO THE E SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FAVORING
LOCATIONS E OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE TX BORDER FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK OF BURN
SCAR FLASH FLOODING.

ANOTHER MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE NE WITH THE
EXITING UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON SATURDAY FAVORING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND POSSIBLY THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD KEEP RAIN
FROM BECOMING TOO HEAVY IN GENERAL...WITH SOME LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS.

A TRAIN OF EASTERLY WAVES IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SW NM AND CENTRAL AZ SUNDAY INTO THE COMING
WORK WEEK STEERING A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS PROBABLE EACH
DAY.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY...LOOK FOR READINGS TO BE BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS DUE TO THE FRONTS AND PERIODS
OF PRECIPITATION.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A COUPLE AREA OF STORMS OVER THE REGION DRIFTING EASTWARD WILL
VERY SLOWLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
WAS LOW CLOUDINESS AND POTENTIAL FOG IN AREAS THAT HAVE PICKED UP
HEAVY RAINFALL. DEWPOINTS ARE HIGH AND SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT CONVERGENT WINDS WITHIN THE PECOS VALLEY
MAY FAVOR SOME FOG/LOW CLOUDS FOR KLVS TO KTCC AND KROW. GREATEST
CONFIDENCE WAS AT KLVS WHERE A COUPLE OBS ARE ALREADY CLOSE. KABQ
MAY ALSO SEE SOME FOG BUT FOR NOW THINKING GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE
TO SEE A BKN LAYER HUGGING THE MOUNTAINS BTWN 09Z AND 15Z.
TOMORROW WILL BE DRIER WITH WEST TO NW FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS. THE EAST WILL SEE ANOTHER STRONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGED WEST THRU THE REGION...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT. WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL MODERATE GAP WINDS IN STORE FOR KABQ.

GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  90  64  90  63 /  20  20  20  30
DULCE...........................  84  52  82  52 /  40  40  40  50
CUBA............................  85  56  80  55 /  30  50  70  70
GALLUP..........................  88  59  87  58 /  10  20  30  30
EL MORRO........................  83  55  82  55 /  20  30  50  40
GRANTS..........................  87  56  84  55 /  20  40  60  40
QUEMADO.........................  85  58  83  58 /  20  30  60  40
GLENWOOD........................  91  59  89  59 /  20  20  60  50
CHAMA...........................  79  48  75  47 /  60  60  70  70
LOS ALAMOS......................  82  58  75  56 /  40  60  60  70
PECOS...........................  79  54  72  53 /  40  70  60  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  77  51  73  52 /  60  70  60  60
RED RIVER.......................  68  44  64  44 /  70  70  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  72  44  68  45 /  70  70  60  70
TAOS............................  79  52  74  52 /  30  60  50  60
MORA............................  76  51  70  51 /  60  70  60  70
ESPANOLA........................  85  60  80  59 /  20  50  40  60
SANTA FE........................  82  59  75  57 /  30  60  50  70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  85  59  79  58 /  20  50  40  60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  87  62  82  63 /  20  40  40  60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  90  66  84  66 /  20  40  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  92  64  86  64 /  20  40  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  91  65  86  65 /  20  40  40  50
LOS LUNAS.......................  92  63  87  64 /  20  40  40  40
RIO RANCHO......................  92  65  86  65 /  20  40  40  50
SOCORRO.........................  96  68  90  67 /  20  30  30  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  86  58  79  58 /  30  40  50  60
TIJERAS.........................  87  58  79  58 /  30  40  50  70
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  85  57  75  57 /  30  60  60  70
CLINES CORNERS..................  83  55  74  56 /  30  60  40  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  87  58  78  60 /  20  60  70  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  89  63  81  63 /  20  30  50  40
RUIDOSO.........................  83  54  75  54 /  40  50  70  60
CAPULIN.........................  70  54  70  56 /  70  60  30  60
RATON...........................  74  56  72  57 /  70  60  40  60
SPRINGER........................  77  57  73  58 /  60  60  40  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  79  54  71  54 /  70  60  40  60
CLAYTON.........................  76  57  76  60 /  40  40  20  20
ROY.............................  76  56  73  59 /  60  60  30  60
CONCHAS.........................  85  63  79  65 /  30  40  20  30
SANTA ROSA......................  86  62  79  63 /  30  40  20  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  86  63  81  63 /  30  40  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  86  60  78  61 /  30  30  20  20
PORTALES........................  89  62  79  62 /  30  40  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  89  64  80  64 /  20  30  20  30
ROSWELL.........................  94  67  84  67 /  20  30  30  50
PICACHO.........................  89  62  78  63 /  30  50  40  50
ELK.............................  83  59  75  59 /  40  60  70  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ513>515-527>531.

&&

$$

41





000
FXUS65 KABQ 301006
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
406 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY...THEN SHIFTING TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ESPECIALLY HEIGHTENED FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS AS VERY MOIST AIR IS CARRIED WESTWARD BY EAST TO
WEST WINDS THAT WILL TURN LOCALLY WINDY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND UPPER TULAROSA BASIN. A DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TAIL-END OF EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDING FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER MAINLY NC/NE NEW
MEXICO ALBEIT FAR MORE ISOLATED THAN PAST FEW NIGHTS...WHICH IS A
LITTLE SURPRISING GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY POISED JUST
TO OUR NORTH. FOCUS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE THIS NEXT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NC/NE NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...
SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT WEST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
MAKING A STRONGER DIURNAL SURGE WESTWARD THIS EVENING.

RECALL THE LAST BACKDOOR FRONT THIS PAST SUNDAY THAT KICKED OFF
OUR CURRENT MONSOON BURST PATTERN ARRIVED MUCH FASTER THAN
ADVERTISED AND RESULTED IN A BIG INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM TAOS
TO SANTA FE TO THE ABQ METRO. THE ONE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE WITH
THIS FRONT IS THAT THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING BOUNDARY
/E.G. RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ HAS BEEN WORKED OVER AND TEMPS ARE MUCH
COOLER AND THUS NOT CONTRIBUTING TO AS A SIGNIFICANT NE-SE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THAT SAID...THE INCOMING AIR MASS IS PRETTY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THIS FRONT IS DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN LAST
WEEK. SO BIG CHANGES AHEAD IN THE SHORT TERM. WILL REPOST FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NC/NE AREAS TODAY/EVENING BUT THINKING THE FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN TUCKED CLOSER TO THE EAST SLOPES VS.
THE FAR NE PLAINS ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EASTERLY GAP
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK WESTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING...AND GOING INTO THURSDAY...A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THUS...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM RAINS WILL SET UP FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE
EAST SLOPES OF TE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE ESPECIALLY ENHANCED OVER THE WC/SW MOUNTAINS AND THESE
AREAS COULD REALLY EXPERIENCE A BIG DAY THU PM TO INCLUDE THE
WHITEWATER-BALDY BURN SCAR. ALSO HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR THE SC
HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE EAST FLANKS OF THE JEMEZ AND
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR CHAMA.

LITTLE TIME TO LOOK AT EXTENDED PERIODS IN DEPTH ON THIS SHIFT...BUT
ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN TO CONTINUE. PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS
TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BENEATH WEAKENING STEERING WINDS
ALOFT. OVERALL JUST A FAVORABLE FORECAST FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITIES SHOULD DECREASE TODAY MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NE
DUE TO A GUSTY AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUNCH IN
FROM THE NE DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE DECREASE IN
HUMIDITIES...WETTING FOOTPRINTS OF STORMS SHOULD BE SMALLER
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT TRIES TO
PUSH WESTWARD OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT...PROBABLY DUE TO STABLER POST
FRONTAL AIR. SINCE THE FRONT WILL CROSS NE AREAS DURING A MORE
STABLE PART OF THE DAY...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN THEIR LOOKS TO BE
DECREASING. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH A GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND TOWARD SUNSET AND
THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL BE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A FEW TO 10
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY. HIGHER POST FRONTAL HUMIDITIES
WILL FEED AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS SLOWLY FROM THE NW
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE...AND
ITS LONG DWELL TIME...SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION TO THE E SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FAVORING
LOCATIONS E OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE TX BORDER FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK OF BURN
SCAR FLASH FLOODING.

ANOTHER MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE NE WITH THE
EXITING UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON SATURDAY FAVORING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND POSSIBLY THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD KEEP RAIN
FROM BECOMING TOO HEAVY IN GENERAL...WITH SOME LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS.

A TRAIN OF EASTERLY WAVES IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SW NM AND CENTRAL AZ SUNDAY INTO THE COMING
WORK WEEK STEERING A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS PROBABLE EACH
DAY.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY...LOOK FOR READINGS TO BE BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS DUE TO THE FRONTS AND PERIODS
OF PRECIPITATION.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A COUPLE AREA OF STORMS OVER THE REGION DRIFTING EASTWARD WILL
VERY SLOWLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
WAS LOW CLOUDINESS AND POTENTIAL FOG IN AREAS THAT HAVE PICKED UP
HEAVY RAINFALL. DEWPOINTS ARE HIGH AND SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT CONVERGENT WINDS WITHIN THE PECOS VALLEY
MAY FAVOR SOME FOG/LOW CLOUDS FOR KLVS TO KTCC AND KROW. GREATEST
CONFIDENCE WAS AT KLVS WHERE A COUPLE OBS ARE ALREADY CLOSE. KABQ
MAY ALSO SEE SOME FOG BUT FOR NOW THINKING GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE
TO SEE A BKN LAYER HUGGING THE MOUNTAINS BTWN 09Z AND 15Z.
TOMORROW WILL BE DRIER WITH WEST TO NW FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS. THE EAST WILL SEE ANOTHER STRONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGED WEST THRU THE REGION...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT. WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL MODERATE GAP WINDS IN STORE FOR KABQ.

GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  90  64  90  63 /  20  20  20  30
DULCE...........................  84  52  82  52 /  40  40  40  50
CUBA............................  85  56  80  55 /  30  50  70  70
GALLUP..........................  88  59  87  58 /  10  20  30  30
EL MORRO........................  83  55  82  55 /  20  30  50  40
GRANTS..........................  87  56  84  55 /  20  40  60  40
QUEMADO.........................  85  58  83  58 /  20  30  60  40
GLENWOOD........................  91  59  89  59 /  20  20  60  50
CHAMA...........................  79  48  75  47 /  60  60  70  70
LOS ALAMOS......................  82  58  75  56 /  40  60  60  70
PECOS...........................  79  54  72  53 /  40  70  60  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  77  51  73  52 /  60  70  60  60
RED RIVER.......................  68  44  64  44 /  70  70  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  72  44  68  45 /  70  70  60  70
TAOS............................  79  52  74  52 /  30  60  50  60
MORA............................  76  51  70  51 /  60  70  60  70
ESPANOLA........................  85  60  80  59 /  20  50  40  60
SANTA FE........................  82  59  75  57 /  30  60  50  70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  85  59  79  58 /  20  50  40  60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  87  62  82  63 /  20  40  40  60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  90  66  84  66 /  20  40  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  92  64  86  64 /  20  40  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  91  65  86  65 /  20  40  40  50
LOS LUNAS.......................  92  63  87  64 /  20  40  40  40
RIO RANCHO......................  92  65  86  65 /  20  40  40  50
SOCORRO.........................  96  68  90  67 /  20  30  30  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  86  58  79  58 /  30  40  50  60
TIJERAS.........................  87  58  79  58 /  30  40  50  70
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  85  57  75  57 /  30  60  60  70
CLINES CORNERS..................  83  55  74  56 /  30  60  40  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  87  58  78  60 /  20  60  70  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  89  63  81  63 /  20  30  50  40
RUIDOSO.........................  83  54  75  54 /  40  50  70  60
CAPULIN.........................  70  54  70  56 /  70  60  30  60
RATON...........................  74  56  72  57 /  70  60  40  60
SPRINGER........................  77  57  73  58 /  60  60  40  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  79  54  71  54 /  70  60  40  60
CLAYTON.........................  76  57  76  60 /  40  40  20  20
ROY.............................  76  56  73  59 /  60  60  30  60
CONCHAS.........................  85  63  79  65 /  30  40  20  30
SANTA ROSA......................  86  62  79  63 /  30  40  20  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  86  63  81  63 /  30  40  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  86  60  78  61 /  30  30  20  20
PORTALES........................  89  62  79  62 /  30  40  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  89  64  80  64 /  20  30  20  30
ROSWELL.........................  94  67  84  67 /  20  30  30  50
PICACHO.........................  89  62  78  63 /  30  50  40  50
ELK.............................  83  59  75  59 /  40  60  70  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ513>515-527>531.

&&

$$

41





000
FXUS65 KABQ 301006
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
406 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY...THEN SHIFTING TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ESPECIALLY HEIGHTENED FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS AS VERY MOIST AIR IS CARRIED WESTWARD BY EAST TO
WEST WINDS THAT WILL TURN LOCALLY WINDY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND UPPER TULAROSA BASIN. A DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TAIL-END OF EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDING FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER MAINLY NC/NE NEW
MEXICO ALBEIT FAR MORE ISOLATED THAN PAST FEW NIGHTS...WHICH IS A
LITTLE SURPRISING GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY POISED JUST
TO OUR NORTH. FOCUS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE THIS NEXT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NC/NE NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...
SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT WEST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
MAKING A STRONGER DIURNAL SURGE WESTWARD THIS EVENING.

RECALL THE LAST BACKDOOR FRONT THIS PAST SUNDAY THAT KICKED OFF
OUR CURRENT MONSOON BURST PATTERN ARRIVED MUCH FASTER THAN
ADVERTISED AND RESULTED IN A BIG INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM TAOS
TO SANTA FE TO THE ABQ METRO. THE ONE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE WITH
THIS FRONT IS THAT THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING BOUNDARY
/E.G. RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ HAS BEEN WORKED OVER AND TEMPS ARE MUCH
COOLER AND THUS NOT CONTRIBUTING TO AS A SIGNIFICANT NE-SE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THAT SAID...THE INCOMING AIR MASS IS PRETTY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THIS FRONT IS DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN LAST
WEEK. SO BIG CHANGES AHEAD IN THE SHORT TERM. WILL REPOST FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NC/NE AREAS TODAY/EVENING BUT THINKING THE FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN TUCKED CLOSER TO THE EAST SLOPES VS.
THE FAR NE PLAINS ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EASTERLY GAP
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK WESTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING...AND GOING INTO THURSDAY...A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THUS...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM RAINS WILL SET UP FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE
EAST SLOPES OF TE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE ESPECIALLY ENHANCED OVER THE WC/SW MOUNTAINS AND THESE
AREAS COULD REALLY EXPERIENCE A BIG DAY THU PM TO INCLUDE THE
WHITEWATER-BALDY BURN SCAR. ALSO HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR THE SC
HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE EAST FLANKS OF THE JEMEZ AND
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR CHAMA.

LITTLE TIME TO LOOK AT EXTENDED PERIODS IN DEPTH ON THIS SHIFT...BUT
ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN TO CONTINUE. PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS
TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BENEATH WEAKENING STEERING WINDS
ALOFT. OVERALL JUST A FAVORABLE FORECAST FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITIES SHOULD DECREASE TODAY MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NE
DUE TO A GUSTY AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUNCH IN
FROM THE NE DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE DECREASE IN
HUMIDITIES...WETTING FOOTPRINTS OF STORMS SHOULD BE SMALLER
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT TRIES TO
PUSH WESTWARD OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT...PROBABLY DUE TO STABLER POST
FRONTAL AIR. SINCE THE FRONT WILL CROSS NE AREAS DURING A MORE
STABLE PART OF THE DAY...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN THEIR LOOKS TO BE
DECREASING. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH A GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND TOWARD SUNSET AND
THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL BE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A FEW TO 10
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY. HIGHER POST FRONTAL HUMIDITIES
WILL FEED AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS SLOWLY FROM THE NW
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE...AND
ITS LONG DWELL TIME...SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION TO THE E SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FAVORING
LOCATIONS E OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE TX BORDER FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK OF BURN
SCAR FLASH FLOODING.

ANOTHER MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE NE WITH THE
EXITING UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON SATURDAY FAVORING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND POSSIBLY THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD KEEP RAIN
FROM BECOMING TOO HEAVY IN GENERAL...WITH SOME LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS.

A TRAIN OF EASTERLY WAVES IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SW NM AND CENTRAL AZ SUNDAY INTO THE COMING
WORK WEEK STEERING A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS PROBABLE EACH
DAY.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY...LOOK FOR READINGS TO BE BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS DUE TO THE FRONTS AND PERIODS
OF PRECIPITATION.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A COUPLE AREA OF STORMS OVER THE REGION DRIFTING EASTWARD WILL
VERY SLOWLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
WAS LOW CLOUDINESS AND POTENTIAL FOG IN AREAS THAT HAVE PICKED UP
HEAVY RAINFALL. DEWPOINTS ARE HIGH AND SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT CONVERGENT WINDS WITHIN THE PECOS VALLEY
MAY FAVOR SOME FOG/LOW CLOUDS FOR KLVS TO KTCC AND KROW. GREATEST
CONFIDENCE WAS AT KLVS WHERE A COUPLE OBS ARE ALREADY CLOSE. KABQ
MAY ALSO SEE SOME FOG BUT FOR NOW THINKING GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE
TO SEE A BKN LAYER HUGGING THE MOUNTAINS BTWN 09Z AND 15Z.
TOMORROW WILL BE DRIER WITH WEST TO NW FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS. THE EAST WILL SEE ANOTHER STRONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGED WEST THRU THE REGION...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT. WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL MODERATE GAP WINDS IN STORE FOR KABQ.

GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  90  64  90  63 /  20  20  20  30
DULCE...........................  84  52  82  52 /  40  40  40  50
CUBA............................  85  56  80  55 /  30  50  70  70
GALLUP..........................  88  59  87  58 /  10  20  30  30
EL MORRO........................  83  55  82  55 /  20  30  50  40
GRANTS..........................  87  56  84  55 /  20  40  60  40
QUEMADO.........................  85  58  83  58 /  20  30  60  40
GLENWOOD........................  91  59  89  59 /  20  20  60  50
CHAMA...........................  79  48  75  47 /  60  60  70  70
LOS ALAMOS......................  82  58  75  56 /  40  60  60  70
PECOS...........................  79  54  72  53 /  40  70  60  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  77  51  73  52 /  60  70  60  60
RED RIVER.......................  68  44  64  44 /  70  70  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  72  44  68  45 /  70  70  60  70
TAOS............................  79  52  74  52 /  30  60  50  60
MORA............................  76  51  70  51 /  60  70  60  70
ESPANOLA........................  85  60  80  59 /  20  50  40  60
SANTA FE........................  82  59  75  57 /  30  60  50  70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  85  59  79  58 /  20  50  40  60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  87  62  82  63 /  20  40  40  60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  90  66  84  66 /  20  40  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  92  64  86  64 /  20  40  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  91  65  86  65 /  20  40  40  50
LOS LUNAS.......................  92  63  87  64 /  20  40  40  40
RIO RANCHO......................  92  65  86  65 /  20  40  40  50
SOCORRO.........................  96  68  90  67 /  20  30  30  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  86  58  79  58 /  30  40  50  60
TIJERAS.........................  87  58  79  58 /  30  40  50  70
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  85  57  75  57 /  30  60  60  70
CLINES CORNERS..................  83  55  74  56 /  30  60  40  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  87  58  78  60 /  20  60  70  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  89  63  81  63 /  20  30  50  40
RUIDOSO.........................  83  54  75  54 /  40  50  70  60
CAPULIN.........................  70  54  70  56 /  70  60  30  60
RATON...........................  74  56  72  57 /  70  60  40  60
SPRINGER........................  77  57  73  58 /  60  60  40  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  79  54  71  54 /  70  60  40  60
CLAYTON.........................  76  57  76  60 /  40  40  20  20
ROY.............................  76  56  73  59 /  60  60  30  60
CONCHAS.........................  85  63  79  65 /  30  40  20  30
SANTA ROSA......................  86  62  79  63 /  30  40  20  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  86  63  81  63 /  30  40  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  86  60  78  61 /  30  30  20  20
PORTALES........................  89  62  79  62 /  30  40  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  89  64  80  64 /  20  30  20  30
ROSWELL.........................  94  67  84  67 /  20  30  30  50
PICACHO.........................  89  62  78  63 /  30  50  40  50
ELK.............................  83  59  75  59 /  40  60  70  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ513>515-527>531.

&&

$$

41





000
FXUS65 KABQ 301006
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
406 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL BRING A PERIOD OF
ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO MAINLY NORTH-CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO TODAY...THEN SHIFTING TO CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLASH FLOODING WILL BE ESPECIALLY HEIGHTENED FROM THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON
THURSDAY. THIS AS VERY MOIST AIR IS CARRIED WESTWARD BY EAST TO
WEST WINDS THAT WILL TURN LOCALLY WINDY ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY AND UPPER TULAROSA BASIN. A DEEP MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME
WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TAIL-END OF EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROVIDING FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER MAINLY NC/NE NEW
MEXICO ALBEIT FAR MORE ISOLATED THAN PAST FEW NIGHTS...WHICH IS A
LITTLE SURPRISING GIVEN THE PROXIMITY OF THE BOUNDARY POISED JUST
TO OUR NORTH. FOCUS TODAY/TONIGHT WILL BE THIS NEXT BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT THAT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NC/NE NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING...
SLOWLY PRESSING SOUTH AND SOMEWHAT WEST THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE
MAKING A STRONGER DIURNAL SURGE WESTWARD THIS EVENING.

RECALL THE LAST BACKDOOR FRONT THIS PAST SUNDAY THAT KICKED OFF
OUR CURRENT MONSOON BURST PATTERN ARRIVED MUCH FASTER THAN
ADVERTISED AND RESULTED IN A BIG INCREASE IN CONVECTION FROM TAOS
TO SANTA FE TO THE ABQ METRO. THE ONE IMPORTANT DIFFERENCE WITH
THIS FRONT IS THAT THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE INCOMING BOUNDARY
/E.G. RIO GRANDE VALLEY/ HAS BEEN WORKED OVER AND TEMPS ARE MUCH
COOLER AND THUS NOT CONTRIBUTING TO AS A SIGNIFICANT NE-SE THERMAL
GRADIENT. THAT SAID...THE INCOMING AIR MASS IS PRETTY COOL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR AND THIS FRONT IS DEFINITELY STRONGER THAN LAST
WEEK. SO BIG CHANGES AHEAD IN THE SHORT TERM. WILL REPOST FLASH
FLOOD WATCH FOR NC/NE AREAS TODAY/EVENING BUT THINKING THE FOCUS
FOR HEAVY RAINS WILL REMAIN TUCKED CLOSER TO THE EAST SLOPES VS.
THE FAR NE PLAINS ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. EASTERLY GAP
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BREAK WESTWARD LATE THIS AFTERNOON OR EARLY
EVENING...AND GOING INTO THURSDAY...A MORE STABLE AIR MASS WILL
LIMIT THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE FAR EAST. THUS...THE FOCUS FOR HEAVY
THUNDERSTORM RAINS WILL SET UP FROM THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE
EAST SLOPES OF TE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
WILL BE ESPECIALLY ENHANCED OVER THE WC/SW MOUNTAINS AND THESE
AREAS COULD REALLY EXPERIENCE A BIG DAY THU PM TO INCLUDE THE
WHITEWATER-BALDY BURN SCAR. ALSO HEIGHTENED THREAT FOR THE SC
HIGHLANDS/MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE EAST FLANKS OF THE JEMEZ AND
HIGHER TERRAIN NEAR CHAMA.

LITTLE TIME TO LOOK AT EXTENDED PERIODS IN DEPTH ON THIS SHIFT...BUT
ACTIVE MONSOON PATTERN TO CONTINUE. PLUME OF DEEP MOISTURE LOOKS
TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA FRIDAY BENEATH WEAKENING STEERING WINDS
ALOFT. OVERALL JUST A FAVORABLE FORECAST FOR SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
THUNDERSTORMS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EACH DAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
HUMIDITIES SHOULD DECREASE TODAY MOST LOCATIONS DUE TO DRIER AIR
FILTERING IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. AN EXCEPTION WILL BE ACROSS THE NE
DUE TO A GUSTY AND MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUNCH IN
FROM THE NE DURING THE MORNING. AS A RESULT OF THE DECREASE IN
HUMIDITIES...WETTING FOOTPRINTS OF STORMS SHOULD BE SMALLER
TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WEST. THE BEST CHANCE FOR WETTING RAINS AND
POTENTIALLY SOME LOCALLY HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL BE ACROSS THE
SANGRE DE CRISTOS IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE FRONT TRIES TO
PUSH WESTWARD OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS ARE SHOWING A DECREASE IN
PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT...PROBABLY DUE TO STABLER POST
FRONTAL AIR. SINCE THE FRONT WILL CROSS NE AREAS DURING A MORE
STABLE PART OF THE DAY...THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN THEIR LOOKS TO BE
DECREASING. THIS FRONT SHOULD PUSH THROUGH GAPS IN THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN WITH A GUSTY EAST CANYON WIND TOWARD SUNSET AND
THROUGH TONIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL BE MOST OF THE
FORECAST AREA...EXPECTED HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW TO 10 DEGREES
WARMER THAN YESTERDAY.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH TEMPERATURES SHOULD FALL A FEW TO 10
DEGREES MOST LOCATIONS ON THURSDAY. HIGHER POST FRONTAL HUMIDITIES
WILL FEED AN UPPER TROUGH THAT WILL CROSS SLOWLY FROM THE NW
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE DYNAMICS WITH THIS FEATURE...AND
ITS LONG DWELL TIME...SHOULD RESULT IN FAIRLY WIDESPREAD WETTING
PRECIPITATION FAVORING THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE REGION TO THE E SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT...AND FAVORING
LOCATIONS E OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TO THE TX BORDER FRIDAY/FRIDAY
NIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A RISK OF BURN
SCAR FLASH FLOODING.

ANOTHER MOIST BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SHOULD DROP INTO THE NE WITH THE
EXITING UPPER TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN ON SATURDAY FAVORING THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND POSSIBLY THE EAST SLOPES OF THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS FOR
ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
DRIER AIR ALOFT IN THE WAKE OF THE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD KEEP RAIN
FROM BECOMING TOO HEAVY IN GENERAL...WITH SOME LOCALIZED EXCEPTIONS.

A TRAIN OF EASTERLY WAVES IS CURRENTLY PROGGED TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS SW NM AND CENTRAL AZ SUNDAY INTO THE COMING
WORK WEEK STEERING A ROBUST MONSOON MOISTURE PLUME OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS WITH GOOD COVERAGE OF WETTING STORMS PROBABLE EACH
DAY.

WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SOME NEAR NORMAL HIGH TEMPERATURES ACROSS
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS TODAY...LOOK FOR READINGS TO BE BELOW TO
WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS DUE TO THE FRONTS AND PERIODS
OF PRECIPITATION.

44

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A COUPLE AREA OF STORMS OVER THE REGION DRIFTING EASTWARD WILL
VERY SLOWLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
WAS LOW CLOUDINESS AND POTENTIAL FOG IN AREAS THAT HAVE PICKED UP
HEAVY RAINFALL. DEWPOINTS ARE HIGH AND SOILS ARE SATURATED OVER
MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT CONVERGENT WINDS WITHIN THE PECOS VALLEY
MAY FAVOR SOME FOG/LOW CLOUDS FOR KLVS TO KTCC AND KROW. GREATEST
CONFIDENCE WAS AT KLVS WHERE A COUPLE OBS ARE ALREADY CLOSE. KABQ
MAY ALSO SEE SOME FOG BUT FOR NOW THINKING GREATEST CHANCE WILL BE
TO SEE A BKN LAYER HUGGING THE MOUNTAINS BTWN 09Z AND 15Z.
TOMORROW WILL BE DRIER WITH WEST TO NW FLOW OVER CENTRAL AND
WESTERN AREAS. THE EAST WILL SEE ANOTHER STRONG BACK DOOR FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SURGED WEST THRU THE REGION...WITH STORMS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE FRONT. WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST IN THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL MODERATE GAP WINDS IN STORE FOR KABQ.

GUYER

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  90  64  90  63 /  20  20  20  30
DULCE...........................  84  52  82  52 /  40  40  40  50
CUBA............................  85  56  80  55 /  30  50  70  70
GALLUP..........................  88  59  87  58 /  10  20  30  30
EL MORRO........................  83  55  82  55 /  20  30  50  40
GRANTS..........................  87  56  84  55 /  20  40  60  40
QUEMADO.........................  85  58  83  58 /  20  30  60  40
GLENWOOD........................  91  59  89  59 /  20  20  60  50
CHAMA...........................  79  48  75  47 /  60  60  70  70
LOS ALAMOS......................  82  58  75  56 /  40  60  60  70
PECOS...........................  79  54  72  53 /  40  70  60  70
CERRO/QUESTA....................  77  51  73  52 /  60  70  60  60
RED RIVER.......................  68  44  64  44 /  70  70  70  70
ANGEL FIRE......................  72  44  68  45 /  70  70  60  70
TAOS............................  79  52  74  52 /  30  60  50  60
MORA............................  76  51  70  51 /  60  70  60  70
ESPANOLA........................  85  60  80  59 /  20  50  40  60
SANTA FE........................  82  59  75  57 /  30  60  50  70
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  85  59  79  58 /  20  50  40  60
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  87  62  82  63 /  20  40  40  60
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  90  66  84  66 /  20  40  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  92  64  86  64 /  20  40  40  50
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  91  65  86  65 /  20  40  40  50
LOS LUNAS.......................  92  63  87  64 /  20  40  40  40
RIO RANCHO......................  92  65  86  65 /  20  40  40  50
SOCORRO.........................  96  68  90  67 /  20  30  30  40
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  86  58  79  58 /  30  40  50  60
TIJERAS.........................  87  58  79  58 /  30  40  50  70
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  85  57  75  57 /  30  60  60  70
CLINES CORNERS..................  83  55  74  56 /  30  60  40  60
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  87  58  78  60 /  20  60  70  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  89  63  81  63 /  20  30  50  40
RUIDOSO.........................  83  54  75  54 /  40  50  70  60
CAPULIN.........................  70  54  70  56 /  70  60  30  60
RATON...........................  74  56  72  57 /  70  60  40  60
SPRINGER........................  77  57  73  58 /  60  60  40  60
LAS VEGAS.......................  79  54  71  54 /  70  60  40  60
CLAYTON.........................  76  57  76  60 /  40  40  20  20
ROY.............................  76  56  73  59 /  60  60  30  60
CONCHAS.........................  85  63  79  65 /  30  40  20  30
SANTA ROSA......................  86  62  79  63 /  30  40  20  40
TUCUMCARI.......................  86  63  81  63 /  30  40  20  20
CLOVIS..........................  86  60  78  61 /  30  30  20  20
PORTALES........................  89  62  79  62 /  30  40  20  20
FORT SUMNER.....................  89  64  80  64 /  20  30  20  30
ROSWELL.........................  94  67  84  67 /  20  30  30  50
PICACHO.........................  89  62  78  63 /  30  50  40  50
ELK.............................  83  59  75  59 /  40  60  70  70

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES...
NMZ513>515-527>531.

&&

$$

41





000
FXUS65 KABQ 300535 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1135 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
A COUPLE AREA OF STORMS OVER THE REGION DRIFTING EASTWARD WILL
VERY SLOWLY TAPER OFF OVERNIGHT. THE MAIN CHALLENGE FOR TONIGHT
WAS LOW CLOUDINESS AND POTENTIAL FOG IN AREAS THAT HAVE PICKED
UP HEAVY RAINFALL. DEWPOINTS ARE HIGH AND SOILS ARE SATURATED
OVER MUCH OF THE AREA. LIGHT CONVERGENT WINDS WITHIN THE PECOS
VALLEY MAY FAVOR SOME FOG/LOW CLOUDS FOR KLVS TO KTCC AND KROW.
GREATEST CONFIDENCE WAS AT KLVS WHERE A COUPLE OBS ARE ALREADY
CLOSE. KABQ MAY ALSO SEE SOME FOG BUT FOR NOW THINKING GREATEST
CHANCE WILL BE TO SEE A BKN LAYER HUGGING THE MOUNTAINS BTWN
09Z AND 15Z. TOMORROW WILL BE DRIER WITH WEST TO NW FLOW OVER
CENTRAL AND WESTERN AREAS. THE EAST WILL SEE ANOTHER STRONG
BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY SURGED WEST THRU THE REGION...WITH
STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT. WINDS WILL LIKELY SHIFT EAST
IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WITH POTENTIAL MODERATE GAP WINDS IN
STORE FOR KABQ.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...916 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WORDING FROM ZFP. STORMS OVER
NORTHERN SANGRES ARE MOVING SEWD QUITE RAPIDLY...LIMITING FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FELL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH
REPORTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES LEADING TO FLOODING OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS...SOME OF WHICH OVER-TOPPED ROADS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN
PLACE AND DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE HERE TO STAY...IN PART
DUE TO A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT ON TRACK TO PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY THEN WEST TO NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE AND LEAD TO AN
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING
TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THANKS TO RAIN
COOLING AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING REVEALED A PWAT OF 1.30 INCHES...WHICH IS ALMOST
+2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THE KABQ
SURFACE DEWPOINT TOPPED AT 63 EARLY THIS MORNING AND MANAGED TO
STAY AT 60 THROUGH NOON. THIS JUICY AIRMASS PARTIALLY EXPLAINS THE
EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKING THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND EARLIER THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE 24HR RAINFALL OBSERVED CAME IN FROM 13 SSE OF NEWKIRK
WITH 7.05 INCHES. THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT
HAS LEAD TO THE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...WHICH HAVE OVER-
TOPPED ROADWAYS IN GUADALUPE...DE BACA AND CHAVES COUNTIES. SOME
MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE PECOS RIVER SOUTH OF SUMNER LAKE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DUE TO TODAY`S ROUND OF CONVECTION AND ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS...
WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP AND INTACT FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
STORMS ARE MOVING AT 20 MPH AND WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF ORGANIZING SO
ADDITIONAL FLOODING IMPACTS WILL BE LOCALIZED. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT ACROSS SE
COLORADO...WHICH MAY GRAZE OUR NORTHEAST PLAINS. OTHERWISE...
CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL DOWNTREND THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS THANKS IN
PART TO THE DRYING WORKING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.

MOISTURE WILL BE RECHARGED WEDNESDAY BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...THEN PUSH WEST TO NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN EAST CANYON/GAP
WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A "DOWN" DAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THURSDAY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL FAVOR THE AREAS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEST...
WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS POSSIBLY SHUT DOWN THANKS TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL BE 8-13 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
TICK UP ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST AS THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS MODERATES AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPS RETURN.

THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT FROM AZ EAST OVER NM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME EAST WITH IT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK TROUGHING TO WORK OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. POINT HERE IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE REASONABLE (AT OR BELOW NORMAL) WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND ABUNDANT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE MOST
AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT DRYING ACROSS THE WEST
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL RETURN HIGH
HUMIDITY AND WETTING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
PERHAPS A BIT MORE STABLE THUS LESS RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE
EAST THURSDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE FRONTAL
PUSH. THEN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD TREND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINFALL
CHANCES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD WEST/NORTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS FOR QUITE SOME TIME. A BACK DOOR
INFLUENCE IS LESS LIKELY NOW FOR THE WEEKEND BUT THE MAIN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE STATE. THUS HIGH HUMIDITY
AND ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER
HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS MEANS DAILY ROUNDS OF WETTING RAIN. THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS WOULD BE FAVORED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE EASTERN
PLAINS DRY SOME.

THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE
EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING THIS TREND
ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON HOW MUCH AND DURATION OF THE TREND. ECMWF IS
A LITTLE FLATTER WITH THE RIDGE THAN THE GFS THUS PROVIDING SOME
DRIER AIR ENTRAINMENT OVER THE AREA. HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW BUT CANT
RULE OUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IN THAT SCENARIO SO EITHER
WAY...STORMS WILL BE AROUND AND NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT
DRYING TREND AT THIS TIME THROUGH MIDWEEK.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 300316 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
916 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WORDING FROM ZFP. STORMS OVER
NORTHERN SANGRES ARE MOVING SEWD QUITE RAPIDLY...LIMITING FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...557 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
OVERALL A MUCH QUIETER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR AVIATION
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. A CLUSTER OF STORMS EXTENDING JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR NEAR KABQ WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES FROM KGUP TO KABQ
MAY STILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS/STORMS THRU AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END UP OVER
THE EAST AGAIN TONIGHT HOWEVER BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST. OUR
LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS MERGING FROM KTCC
SOUTH TO NEAR KROW SO HAVE PLACED GREATEST IMPACTS WITH TSRA IN
THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF AFT 09Z WITH
SCT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS DRIFTING AROUND THE REGION. DRIER WEST
TO NW FLOW TOMORROW WILL MAKE FOR AN EVEN QUIETER DAY. THE FOCUS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST AS THE NEXT BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND SPAWNS ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FELL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH
REPORTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES LEADING TO FLOODING OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS...SOME OF WHICH OVER-TOPPED ROADS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN
PLACE AND DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE HERE TO STAY...IN PART
DUE TO A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT ON TRACK TO PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY THEN WEST TO NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE AND LEAD TO AN
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING
TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THANKS TO RAIN
COOLING AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING REVEALED A PWAT OF 1.30 INCHES...WHICH IS ALMOST
+2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THE KABQ
SURFACE DEWPOINT TOPPED AT 63 EARLY THIS MORNING AND MANAGED TO
STAY AT 60 THROUGH NOON. THIS JUICY AIRMASS PARTIALLY EXPLAINS THE
EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKING THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND EARLIER THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE 24HR RAINFALL OBSERVED CAME IN FROM 13 SSE OF NEWKIRK
WITH 7.05 INCHES. THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT
HAS LEAD TO THE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...WHICH HAVE OVER-
TOPPED ROADWAYS IN GUADALUPE...DE BACA AND CHAVES COUNTIES. SOME
MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE PECOS RIVER SOUTH OF SUMNER LAKE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DUE TO TODAY`S ROUND OF CONVECTION AND ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS...
WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP AND INTACT FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
STORMS ARE MOVING AT 20 MPH AND WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF ORGANIZING SO
ADDITIONAL FLOODING IMPACTS WILL BE LOCALIZED. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT ACROSS SE
COLORADO...WHICH MAY GRAZE OUR NORTHEAST PLAINS. OTHERWISE...
CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL DOWNTREND THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS THANKS IN
PART TO THE DRYING WORKING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.

MOISTURE WILL BE RECHARGED WEDNESDAY BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...THEN PUSH WEST TO NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN EAST CANYON/GAP
WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A "DOWN" DAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THURSDAY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL FAVOR THE AREAS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEST...
WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS POSSIBLY SHUT DOWN THANKS TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL BE 8-13 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
TICK UP ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST AS THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS MODERATES AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPS RETURN.

THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT FROM AZ EAST OVER NM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME EAST WITH IT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK TROUGHING TO WORK OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. POINT HERE IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE REASONABLE (AT OR BELOW NORMAL) WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND ABUNDANT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE MOST
AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT DRYING ACROSS THE WEST
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL RETURN HIGH
HUMIDITY AND WETTING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
PERHAPS A BIT MORE STABLE THUS LESS RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE
EAST THURSDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE FRONTAL
PUSH. THEN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD TREND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINFALL
CHANCES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD WEST/NORTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS FOR QUITE SOME TIME. A BACK DOOR
INFLUENCE IS LESS LIKELY NOW FOR THE WEEKEND BUT THE MAIN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE STATE. THUS HIGH HUMIDITY
AND ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER
HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS MEANS DAILY ROUNDS OF WETTING RAIN. THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS WOULD BE FAVORED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE EASTERN
PLAINS DRY SOME.

THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE
EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING THIS TREND
ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON HOW MUCH AND DURATION OF THE TREND. ECMWF IS
A LITTLE FLATTER WITH THE RIDGE THAN THE GFS THUS PROVIDING SOME
DRIER AIR ENTRAINMENT OVER THE AREA. HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW BUT CANT
RULE OUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IN THAT SCENARIO SO EITHER
WAY...STORMS WILL BE AROUND AND NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT
DRYING TREND AT THIS TIME THROUGH MIDWEEK.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$












000
FXUS65 KABQ 300316 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
916 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATED TO REMOVE FLASH FLOOD WATCH WORDING FROM ZFP. STORMS OVER
NORTHERN SANGRES ARE MOVING SEWD QUITE RAPIDLY...LIMITING FLASH
FLOOD POTENTIAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...557 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
OVERALL A MUCH QUIETER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR AVIATION
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. A CLUSTER OF STORMS EXTENDING JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR NEAR KABQ WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES FROM KGUP TO KABQ
MAY STILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS/STORMS THRU AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END UP OVER
THE EAST AGAIN TONIGHT HOWEVER BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST. OUR
LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS MERGING FROM KTCC
SOUTH TO NEAR KROW SO HAVE PLACED GREATEST IMPACTS WITH TSRA IN
THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF AFT 09Z WITH
SCT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS DRIFTING AROUND THE REGION. DRIER WEST
TO NW FLOW TOMORROW WILL MAKE FOR AN EVEN QUIETER DAY. THE FOCUS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST AS THE NEXT BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND SPAWNS ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FELL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH
REPORTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES LEADING TO FLOODING OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS...SOME OF WHICH OVER-TOPPED ROADS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN
PLACE AND DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE HERE TO STAY...IN PART
DUE TO A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT ON TRACK TO PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY THEN WEST TO NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE AND LEAD TO AN
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING
TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THANKS TO RAIN
COOLING AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING REVEALED A PWAT OF 1.30 INCHES...WHICH IS ALMOST
+2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THE KABQ
SURFACE DEWPOINT TOPPED AT 63 EARLY THIS MORNING AND MANAGED TO
STAY AT 60 THROUGH NOON. THIS JUICY AIRMASS PARTIALLY EXPLAINS THE
EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKING THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND EARLIER THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE 24HR RAINFALL OBSERVED CAME IN FROM 13 SSE OF NEWKIRK
WITH 7.05 INCHES. THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT
HAS LEAD TO THE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...WHICH HAVE OVER-
TOPPED ROADWAYS IN GUADALUPE...DE BACA AND CHAVES COUNTIES. SOME
MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE PECOS RIVER SOUTH OF SUMNER LAKE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DUE TO TODAY`S ROUND OF CONVECTION AND ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS...
WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP AND INTACT FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
STORMS ARE MOVING AT 20 MPH AND WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF ORGANIZING SO
ADDITIONAL FLOODING IMPACTS WILL BE LOCALIZED. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT ACROSS SE
COLORADO...WHICH MAY GRAZE OUR NORTHEAST PLAINS. OTHERWISE...
CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL DOWNTREND THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS THANKS IN
PART TO THE DRYING WORKING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.

MOISTURE WILL BE RECHARGED WEDNESDAY BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...THEN PUSH WEST TO NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN EAST CANYON/GAP
WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A "DOWN" DAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THURSDAY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL FAVOR THE AREAS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEST...
WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS POSSIBLY SHUT DOWN THANKS TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL BE 8-13 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
TICK UP ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST AS THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS MODERATES AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPS RETURN.

THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT FROM AZ EAST OVER NM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME EAST WITH IT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK TROUGHING TO WORK OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. POINT HERE IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE REASONABLE (AT OR BELOW NORMAL) WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND ABUNDANT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE MOST
AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT DRYING ACROSS THE WEST
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL RETURN HIGH
HUMIDITY AND WETTING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
PERHAPS A BIT MORE STABLE THUS LESS RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE
EAST THURSDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE FRONTAL
PUSH. THEN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD TREND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINFALL
CHANCES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD WEST/NORTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS FOR QUITE SOME TIME. A BACK DOOR
INFLUENCE IS LESS LIKELY NOW FOR THE WEEKEND BUT THE MAIN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE STATE. THUS HIGH HUMIDITY
AND ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER
HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS MEANS DAILY ROUNDS OF WETTING RAIN. THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS WOULD BE FAVORED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE EASTERN
PLAINS DRY SOME.

THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE
EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING THIS TREND
ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON HOW MUCH AND DURATION OF THE TREND. ECMWF IS
A LITTLE FLATTER WITH THE RIDGE THAN THE GFS THUS PROVIDING SOME
DRIER AIR ENTRAINMENT OVER THE AREA. HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW BUT CANT
RULE OUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IN THAT SCENARIO SO EITHER
WAY...STORMS WILL BE AROUND AND NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT
DRYING TREND AT THIS TIME THROUGH MIDWEEK.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$













000
FXUS65 KABQ 292357 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
557 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
OVERALL A MUCH QUIETER EVENING AND OVERNIGHT PERIOD FOR AVIATION
COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW DAYS. A CLUSTER OF STORMS EXTENDING JUST
SOUTH OF THE I-40 CORRIDOR NEAR KABQ WILL TRANSLATE SLOWLY EAST
INTO THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT. LOW LEVEL BOUNDARIES FROM KGUP TO KABQ
MAY STILL PROVIDE LIFT FOR A FEW MORE SHOWERS/STORMS THRU AT LEAST
MIDNIGHT. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL END UP OVER
THE EAST AGAIN TONIGHT HOWEVER BIG MODEL DIFFERENCES EXIST. OUR
LOCAL WRF MODEL SHOWS A LARGE CLUSTER OF STORMS MERGING FROM KTCC
SOUTH TO NEAR KROW SO HAVE PLACED GREATEST IMPACTS WITH TSRA IN
THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...ACTIVITY SHOULD TAPER OFF AFT 09Z WITH
SCT MID LEVEL CLOUD DECKS DRIFTING AROUND THE REGION. DRIER WEST
TO NW FLOW TOMORROW WILL MAKE FOR AN EVEN QUIETER DAY. THE FOCUS
WILL REMAIN OVER THE EAST AS THE NEXT BACK DOOR FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY AND SPAWNS ANOTHER ROUND OF
HEAVY RAINFALL.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...334 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
TORRENTIAL RAINFALL FELL ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT WITH
REPORTS OF 5 TO 7 INCHES LEADING TO FLOODING OF CREEKS AND
STREAMS...SOME OF WHICH OVER-TOPPED ROADS. AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS IN
PLACE AND DAILY ROUNDS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE HERE TO STAY...IN PART
DUE TO A STRONG BACKDOOR FRONT ON TRACK TO PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN
PLAINS WEDNESDAY THEN WEST TO NEAR THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL RECHARGE MOISTURE AND LEAD TO AN
UPTICK IN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOOKING
TOWARD THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE FUEL FOR THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE AT OR BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD THANKS TO RAIN
COOLING AND PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING REVEALED A PWAT OF 1.30 INCHES...WHICH IS ALMOST
+2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THE KABQ
SURFACE DEWPOINT TOPPED AT 63 EARLY THIS MORNING AND MANAGED TO
STAY AT 60 THROUGH NOON. THIS JUICY AIRMASS PARTIALLY EXPLAINS THE
EFFICIENT RAIN-MAKING THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT AND EARLIER THIS
MORNING ACROSS THE EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS. THE MOST
IMPRESSIVE 24HR RAINFALL OBSERVED CAME IN FROM 13 SSE OF NEWKIRK
WITH 7.05 INCHES. THE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL THAT OCCURRED OVERNIGHT
HAS LEAD TO THE FLOODING OF CREEKS AND STREAMS...WHICH HAVE OVER-
TOPPED ROADWAYS IN GUADALUPE...DE BACA AND CHAVES COUNTIES. SOME
MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE PECOS RIVER SOUTH OF SUMNER LAKE
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.

DUE TO TODAY`S ROUND OF CONVECTION AND ALREADY SATURATED GROUNDS...
WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP AND INTACT FOR NOW. HOWEVER...
STORMS ARE MOVING AT 20 MPH AND WITH LITTLE CHANCE OF ORGANIZING SO
ADDITIONAL FLOODING IMPACTS WILL BE LOCALIZED. THERE IS SOME
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION OVERNIGHT ACROSS SE
COLORADO...WHICH MAY GRAZE OUR NORTHEAST PLAINS. OTHERWISE...
CONVECTION SHOULD FOLLOW A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL DOWNTREND THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE NIGHTS THANKS IN
PART TO THE DRYING WORKING OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE AREA
BEHIND A SHORTWAVE TROUGH AXIS.

MOISTURE WILL BE RECHARGED WEDNESDAY BEHIND A BACKDOOR FRONT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS...THEN PUSH WEST TO NEAR THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE WEDNESDAY NIGHT RESULTING IN EAST CANYON/GAP
WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY. WEDNESDAY LOOKS TO BE A "DOWN" DAY
COMPARED TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. THURSDAY THUNDERSTORM
POTENTIAL WILL FAVOR THE AREAS FROM THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY WEST...
WITH THE EASTERN PLAINS POSSIBLY SHUT DOWN THANKS TO COLD AIR
ADVECTION BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS WILL BE 8-13 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
TICK UP ON FRIDAY ACROSS THE EAST AS THE LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER
AIRMASS MODERATES AND HIGHER SURFACE DEWPOINT TEMPS RETURN.

THE UPPER HIGH IS FORECAST TO DRIFT FROM AZ EAST OVER NM THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...BRINGING THE MONSOONAL MOISTURE PLUME EAST WITH IT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. BOTH THE 12Z
ECMWF AND GFS SHOW THE UPPER HIGH SHIFTING SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK
WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME WEAK TROUGHING TO WORK OVER THE
SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES. POINT HERE IS THAT HIGH TEMPERATURES
SHOULD BE REASONABLE (AT OR BELOW NORMAL) WITH CONTINUED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
THE HIGHER HUMIDITY AND ABUNDANT RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE MOST
AREAS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLIGHT DRYING ACROSS THE WEST
EXPECTED WEDNESDAY BUT REINFORCING COLD FRONT WILL RETURN HIGH
HUMIDITY AND WETTING RAIN CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST ON THURSDAY.
PERHAPS A BIT MORE STABLE THUS LESS RAINFALL CHANCES ACROSS THE
EAST THURSDAY. THE MAIN FOCUS WEDNESDAY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST AREAS DURING THE DAY DUE TO THE FRONTAL
PUSH. THEN THE HEAVIER RAINFALL SHOULD TREND SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SIGNIFICANT WETTING RAINFALL
CHANCES EXPECTED ON FRIDAY PRETTY MUCH AREAWIDE...ESPECIALLY ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE EASTWARD.

THE UPPER HIGH WILL BUILD WEST/NORTHWARD DURING THE WEEKEND. THIS
HAS BEEN ADVERTISED BY THE MODELS FOR QUITE SOME TIME. A BACK DOOR
INFLUENCE IS LESS LIKELY NOW FOR THE WEEKEND BUT THE MAIN MONSOONAL
MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER THE STATE. THUS HIGH HUMIDITY
AND ABUNDANT ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE SHOULD BE TRAPPED WITHIN THE UPPER
HIGH CIRCULATION. THIS MEANS DAILY ROUNDS OF WETTING RAIN. THE
WESTERN TWO THIRDS WOULD BE FAVORED DURING THIS PERIOD AS THE EASTERN
PLAINS DRY SOME.

THE MAIN MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD DURING THE
EARLIER HALF OF NEXT WEEK. BOTH THE GFS/ECMWF ARE SHOWING THIS TREND
ALTHOUGH THEY DIFFER ON HOW MUCH AND DURATION OF THE TREND. ECMWF IS
A LITTLE FLATTER WITH THE RIDGE THAN THE GFS THUS PROVIDING SOME
DRIER AIR ENTRAINMENT OVER THE AREA. HARD TO SAY RIGHT NOW BUT CANT
RULE OUT A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IN THAT SCENARIO SO EITHER
WAY...STORMS WILL BE AROUND AND NOT LOOKING AT ANY SIGNIFICANT
DRYING TREND AT THIS TIME THROUGH MIDWEEK.

50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ510>516-523-526>534-537-539.

&&

$$










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