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000
FXUS65 KABQ 252134
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
334 PM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEAR SKIES OF TODAY WILL SLOWLY BE DISPLACED BY INCREASING
EASTBOUND HIGH CLOUD COVER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES AND IN A FEW CASES BARELY
MEASURABLE LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY WHILE STRONGER WINDS OFF THE DECK MIX
DOWN TO THE SURFACE TO A FAIR DEGREE. GIVEN GOOD FORECAST MODELS
AGREEMENT ON HOW LITTLE MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS DISPLAYED
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...DECIDED TO TRIM
THE ALREADY LOW POPS BACK FURTHER...WHILE KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF
THE LESS THAN MEASURABLE POPS SPRINKLES AND GUSTY WINDS THAT WERE
INHERITED AS DO BELIEVE THAT FAIR AMOUNT OF VIRGA SHOULD DEVELOP
WITH DAY TIME HEATING. WHILE AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
ABOVE THE SEASONAL NORM...AS MUCH AS AROUND 20 DEGREES ABOVE IN
THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES OF
COOLING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON MONDAY...MOSTLY IN NORTH
CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM
THE NORTH. AFTER FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT...A COOLER DAY WILL
MATERIALIZE ON TUESDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE CLOSE
TO AVERAGE. MID NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND TRANQUIL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
STILL A QUIET PRECIP FREE NIGHT TONIGHT...THOUGH SOME HIGH CLOUDS
TO SLOWLY PUSH INTO THE WEST HALF OF NM. SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
INCREASE FAIRLY MODESTLY.

BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO APPROACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
SUN. ASSOCIATED INFLOW OF MODEST MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE
ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY VIRGA WITH
LITTLE RAIN REACHING THE SFC...BUT WITH ACCOMPANYING GUSTY WINDS.
IN ADDITION TO CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED GUSTS...THE DEEPENING LEE SIDE
SURFACE LOW WILL COUPLE WITH A STRONGER GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT
WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE SUN AFTERNOON...INDUCING BREEZY TO
WINDY CONDITIONS ON MORE OF A SYNOPTIC SCALE. WHILE AFTN TEMPS
WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...AS MUCH AS AROUND 20 DEGREES
ABOVE IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF THE STATE...THERE WILL BE SEVERAL
DEGREES OF COOLING ACROSS ROUGHLY THE NORTHWEST HALF. A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN MON...MOSTLY IN N
CENTRAL TO NE NEW MEXICO AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTH
AND TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY FROM THE LAST OF THE SHORT WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE LONGER WAVE SYSTEM BRUSHES TO THE NM CO BORDER.
ALSO...THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING COOLER THAN AVERAGE TEMPS IN THE
EAST AND MORE NEARER SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST. SOME
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE TUE NIGHT AND
WED MORNING...BUT THE REMAINDER OF THE MID WEEK PERIOD LOOKS TO
REMAIN DRY WITH ANOTHER RIDGE PASSING OVERHEAD AS TEMPERATURES
CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...LOW HUMIDITIES AND GUSTY WINDS LOCALLY OVER
THE NORTHEAST PLAINS ON SUNDAY EARLY THROUGH MID AFTERNOON.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. RIDGE CORE
OVER SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS WILL SHIFT SOUTH AS INBOUND WEST COAST
TROUGH FROM THE ALASKA SOUTHEAST PANHANDLE TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
SHEARS EASTWARD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS SUNDAY. TRAILING COASTAL
TROUGH WILL PHASE WITH DEEPENING SYSTEM OVER THE WESTERN CANADIAN
PRAIRIES AND MOVE ONSHORE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA EARLY MONDAY MORNING
TO SWEEP THROUGH NEW MEXICO BY MONDAY EVENING. NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
NEW MEXICO TUESDAY WILL BUCKLE FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS STATES ACROSS
NEW MEXICO INTO BAJA CALIFORNIA BY WEDNESDAY...WITH FEATURE SHEARING
EASTWARD INTO TEXAS EARLY THURSDAY AS RIDGE CORE SETS UP OVER
SOUTHEAST ARIZONA. RIDGE WILL MOVE SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO TO WIND
UP THE WORK WEEK...AS PACIFIC TROUGH FROM WESTERN CANADA TO SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA MOVES ONSHORE. WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER NEW MEXICO AS THE
TROUGH APPROACHES...STRONGEST DYNAMICS WILL REACH THE FOUR CORNERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MOVE ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH MONDAY.

OVERNIGHT...TEMPERATURES MODERATING COMPARED TO LAST NIGHT...WITH
SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
OVERNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...WEST COAST TROUGH SHEARING EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO
THROUGH THE DAY AS TROUGH DEEPENS FROM THE DAKOTAS ACROSS EASTERN
NEW MEXICO TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY. ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE
CENTRAL AND WEST THROUGH THE EVENING...WITH BEST CHANCES OVER
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HIGH COUNTRY. LACKING MOISTURE...THESE STORMS
WILL HAVE VERY LIMITED RAINFALL INTENSITY...WITH MOST DRY. GUSTY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL LINE UP WITH
HUMIDITIES IN THE LOW TEENS IN SPOTS OVER THE NORTHEAST PLAINS FOR A
FEW HOURS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES
ELSEWHERE WILL RUN IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S PCT TO PRECLUDE MORE
WIDESPREAD FIRE DANGER. NO VENTILATION ISSUES IN GUSTY WINDS ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE...WITH FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR MONDAY...COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS NEW MEXICO FROM WEST TO EAST
WILL BRING TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL OVER THE WEST AND
CENTRAL...WITH 6 TO 12 DEGREE WARM EXCURSIONS REMAINING OVER THE
EAST. AFTERNOON WESTERLY BREEZES SETTING UP OVER THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40 THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND BOOSTS TO MINIMUM HUMIDITIES
WILL KEEP RH VALUES IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S PCT...ABOVE RED FLAG
CRITERIA THROUGH LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHEAST MONDAY
AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS CONTINUING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
VENTILATION ENJOYING ONE MORE GOOD DAY...WITH GOOD OR BETTER
CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT THE NORTHEAST. GENERALLY GOOD HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...GENERALLY NORTHWEST FLOW AS FIRST SIGNS OF TROUGH
BUCKLING ALOFT OVER THE HEART OF NEW MEXICO THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST WILL LIMIT DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES SHORT OF NORMAL...WITH NEAR NORMAL
TEMPERATURES OVER THE WEST. SHOWER COVERAGE MOVED OFF TO THE EAST
WILL LEAVE NEW MEXICO IN THE CLEAR. WITH FRONTAL INVASION...WIND
DIRECTIONS WILL SHIFT TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST OVER THE EASTERN
HALF...BUT SPEEDS WILL REMAIN MODEST THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. WITH
COOLER TEMPERATURES...MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL BOOST INTO THE 20S AND
30S PCT OVER THE EAST...WITH HUMIDITIES REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS
AND 20S PCT OVER THE WEST. VENTILATION CONDITIONS DROPPING ANOTHER
NOTCH...BUT REMAINING FAIR TO GOOD OVER THE NORTH...WITH FAIR TO
POOR CONDITIONS OVER THE SOUTH. GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT
IMPROVING TO EXCELLENT OVER THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS NEAR
THE TEXAS BORDER.

OUTLOOK...WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...REMAINING WARMER THAN NORMAL AS
RIDGE MOVES ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH THE LAST HALF OF THE WORK
WEEK. DRY CONDITIONS...WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND LOW
20S PCT THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MODEST MOISTURE PUSH INTO EASTERN
NEW MEXICO BOOSTING HUMIDITIES HERE ON FRIDAY AS WEAK COLD FRONT
OVERSPREADS THE STATE AND DRIFTING SOUTHWARD FROM LATE THURSDAY
ONWARD. GENERALLY POOR VENTILATION WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IMPROVING
TOWARD GOOD ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY WIND SPEEDS PICK UP AS THE WEEK
COMES TO AN END.

SHY

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VIZ NEXT 24 HRS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LVS AND TCC...AND AROUND 23Z FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT SAF. RIDGE OVER
EASTERN NM SHIFTING TO TX WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
SHEARING EASTWARD OVER NM DURING THE DAY SUN...AS SFC TROUGH
DEEPENS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST NM THROUGH SUN 18Z.

SHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  46  72  39  63 /   0  10   5   5
DULCE...........................  34  67  29  61 /   0  20  10   5
CUBA............................  40  69  37  64 /   0  20  20   5
GALLUP..........................  39  70  35  63 /   5  10   5   0
EL MORRO........................  37  68  34  62 /   5  10  10   5
GRANTS..........................  39  73  37  67 /   5  20  10   5
QUEMADO.........................  41  71  40  64 /   5  10   5   0
GLENWOOD........................  45  77  41  72 /   0  10   5   0
CHAMA...........................  30  65  28  57 /   0  20  20  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  45  69  41  65 /   0  10  10   5
PECOS...........................  41  71  39  66 /   0  10   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  35  66  35  63 /   0  10  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  27  56  24  49 /   0  10  10  20
ANGEL FIRE......................  24  61  22  58 /   0  10  10  20
TAOS............................  34  67  35  64 /   0  10  10   5
MORA............................  41  68  38  65 /   0  10  10  10
ESPANOLA........................  37  75  35  70 /   0   5   5   5
SANTA FE........................  46  71  43  65 /   0   5   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  44  74  42  68 /   0   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  51  75  47  69 /   0   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  53  77  51  71 /   0   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  46  79  43  73 /   0   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  48  79  45  73 /   0   5   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  43  78  42  73 /   0   5   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  50  79  47  73 /   0   5   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  50  82  49  76 /   0   5   5   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  44  73  45  67 /   0  10   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  46  74  45  68 /   0  10   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  37  76  37  70 /   0  10   5   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  46  72  43  67 /   0  10  10   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  48  74  46  69 /   0  10   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  48  78  48  75 /   0  10   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  47  71  43  68 /   0  10  10   5
CAPULIN.........................  39  74  37  63 /   0   0   5  10
RATON...........................  41  76  40  66 /   0   0   5  10
SPRINGER........................  42  77  41  67 /   0   0   5  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  46  74  43  70 /   0  10   5   5
CLAYTON.........................  52  86  50  66 /   0   0   0  10
ROY.............................  48  79  45  68 /   0   0   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  50  85  51  74 /   0   0   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  50  84  50  74 /   0   0   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  51  87  52  77 /   0   0   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  50  85  51  78 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  50  85  50  78 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  51  86  51  78 /   0   0   5   0
ROSWELL.........................  49  88  52  85 /   0   0   5   0
PICACHO.........................  49  82  50  77 /   0  10   5   0
ELK.............................  48  77  49  72 /   0  10   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

43






000
FXUS65 KABQ 251723 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1123 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VIZ NEXT 24 HRS. GUSTS TO 25 KTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR
LVS AND TCC...AND AROUND 23Z FOR SEVERAL HOURS AT SAF. RIDGE OVER
EASTERN NM SHIFTING TO TX WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE WEST COAST
SHEARING EASTWARD OVER NM DURING THE DAY SUN...AS SFC TROUGH
DEEPENS FROM CENTRAL NEBRASKA TO SOUTHEAST NM THROUGH SUN 18Z.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE EASTWARD TODAY
WHILE ABOVE NORMAL AND EVEN NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY
WHILE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BECOME MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IN
ADDITION TO THE BREEZY CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE
AVERAGE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
MONDAY...MOSTLY IN NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WHILE
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE. ONCE THE FRONT INVADES THE
STATE MONDAY NIGHT...A COOLER DAY WILL BE IN STORE ON
TUESDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND TRANQUIL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WARM AND POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING DAY WILL BE ON HAND
TODAY. PRESSURE HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REDUCE BY A
FEW DECAMETERS AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO TX. CLEAR SKIES WILL
HOLD AND BREEZES SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH THE LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH NOT EXPECTED TO DEEPEN MUCH TODAY. CLOUDS IN
THE MID TO HIGH LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL APPROACH NM FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC TREKS OVER NM.

A MORE POTENT TROUGH DRIVEN BY THE POLAR JET WILL THEN BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FLUX OF
MEAGER MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY LIKELY OF THE VIRGA VARIETY WITH
MINIMAL RAIN MAKING IT TO THE GROUND...BUT GUSTY WINDS
ACCOMPANYING ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
WINDS...THE DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW WILL COUPLE WITH A
STRONGER GRADIENT...AND WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INDUCING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON MORE OF
A SYNOPTIC SCALE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CLIMB AS HIGH IN SOME
WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALL AREAS WILL STILL EXCEED
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES BY 6 TO 18 DEGREES. HAVE KEPT SOME POPS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BUT DYNAMICS ALOFT LOOK RATHER
WEAK AND WOULD THINK MINIMAL ACTIVITY WOULD BE ABLE TO SURVIVE
AFTER DARK.

AS THE POLAR JET CARRIES THE TROUGH...DEEPENING INTO A LOW...OVER
THE CANADIAN BORDER...TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PASS OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND WILL JUST SKIRT THE NM/CO BORDER. SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THIS PASSING SYSTEM ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WITH
COOLER THAN AVERAGE READINGS IN THE EAST AND MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST. SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE MID WEEK PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH ANOTHER RIDGE
PASSING OVERHEAD AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW TODAY AND STRENGTHENS SUNDAY. VENT RATES
WILL IMPROVE TODAY AND MORE SO SUNDAY. HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...AND SOME NEAR RECORD VALUES POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY AND SUNDAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE SUNDAY COULD
SPARK A FEW DRY SHOWERS AND STORMS WEST AND CENTRAL. POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAINLY NORTHEAST QUARTER SUNDAY BUT
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST GOOD. A FRONT
MONDAY WILL COOL HIGHS DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE THEY
FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND AND GENERALLY POOR VENTILATION UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WAVES GOODBYE TO NEW MEXICO TODAY AS FLOW TRANSITIONS
TO ZONAL AND STRENGTHENS SUNDAY. SOME NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY AS SOME WESTERLY BREEZES PICK UP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL.
MODELS UNDERDID THE DRIER DEW POINTS OBSERVED FRIDAY IN THE WRN MTS
SO MADE SOME TWEAKS DOWNWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH LEAD TO SOME
BELOW 15 PERCENT MIN RH VALUES NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...RH
RECOVERIES SHOULD BE GOOD MOST LOCALES TONIGHT. VENT RATES GOOD OR
BETTER MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND IMPROVE MARKEDLY
SUNDAY.

WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY STILL SOMEWHAT OF A FORECAST
PROBLEM...POSSIBLY DUE IN PART TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE MORE THAN ONE
DISTURBANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. STRONGEST H7 WINDS INDICATED 12Z
SUNDAY AND AGAIN 12Z MONDAY...WITH 40KT OR MORE ALONG THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN 12Z MONDAY. SUSPECT THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER DOWN SLOPE
WINDS EARLY MONDAY THAN WHAT CAN BE POPULATED FROM MODELS AT THE
PRESENT TIME. OTHERWISE MODELS STILL WANT TO INCREASE DEW POINTS FOR
SUNDAY EXCEPT THE ECMWF WHICH IS DRIER AND TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION. STILL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD DRY CONVECTION WEST AND CENTRAL
AS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE PASSES OVERHEAD. SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FRONT TO DROP INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. VENT RATES REMAIN GENERALLY EXCELLENT MONDAY THEN ARE
MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE IS SHUNTED EASTWARD BY THE
INCOMING SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST. 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER...SO BOTH
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

43







000
FXUS65 KABQ 251109
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
509 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES AFT 18Z AS LEE SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS. VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE EASTWARD TODAY
WHILE ABOVE NORMAL AND EVEN NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY
WHILE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BECOME MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IN
ADDITION TO THE BREEZY CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE
AVERAGE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
MONDAY...MOSTLY IN NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WHILE
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE. ONCE THE FRONT INVADES THE
STATE MONDAY NIGHT...A COOLER DAY WILL BE IN STORE ON
TUESDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND TRANQUIL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WARM AND POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING DAY WILL BE ON HAND
TODAY. PRESSURE HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REDUCE BY A
FEW DECAMETERS AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO TX. CLEAR SKIES WILL
HOLD AND BREEZES SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH THE LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH NOT EXPECTED TO DEEPEN MUCH TODAY. CLOUDS IN
THE MID TO HIGH LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL APPROACH NM FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC TREKS OVER NM.

A MORE POTENT TROUGH DRIVEN BY THE POLAR JET WILL THEN BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FLUX OF
MEAGER MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY LIKELY OF THE VIRGA VARIETY WITH
MINIMAL RAIN MAKING IT TO THE GROUND...BUT GUSTY WINDS
ACCOMPANYING ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
WINDS...THE DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW WILL COUPLE WITH A
STRONGER GRADIENT...AND WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INDUCING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON MORE OF
A SYNOPTIC SCALE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CLIMB AS HIGH IN SOME
WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALL AREAS WILL STILL EXCEED
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES BY 6 TO 18 DEGREES. HAVE KEPT SOME POPS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BUT DYNAMICS ALOFT LOOK RATHER
WEAK AND WOULD THINK MINIMAL ACTIVITY WOULD BE ABLE TO SURVIVE
AFTER DARK.

AS THE POLAR JET CARRIES THE TROUGH...DEEPENING INTO A LOW...OVER
THE CANADIAN BORDER...TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PASS OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND WILL JUST SKIRT THE NM/CO BORDER. SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THIS PASSING SYSTEM ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WITH
COOLER THAN AVERAGE READINGS IN THE EAST AND MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST. SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE MID WEEK PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH ANOTHER RIDGE
PASSING OVERHEAD AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW TODAY AND STRENGTHENS SUNDAY. VENT RATES
WILL IMPROVE TODAY AND MORE SO SUNDAY. HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...AND SOME NEAR RECORD VALUES POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY AND SUNDAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE SUNDAY COULD
SPARK A FEW DRY SHOWERS AND STORMS WEST AND CENTRAL. POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAINLY NORTHEAST QUARTER SUNDAY BUT
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST GOOD. A FRONT
MONDAY WILL COOL HIGHS DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE THEY
FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND AND GENERALLY POOR VENTILATION UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WAVES GOODBYE TO NEW MEXICO TODAY AS FLOW TRANSITIONS
TO ZONAL AND STRENGTHENS SUNDAY. SOME NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY AS SOME WESTERLY BREEZES PICK UP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL.
MODELS UNDERDID THE DRIER DEW POINTS OBSERVED FRIDAY IN THE WRN MTS
SO MADE SOME TWEAKS DOWNWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH LEAD TO SOME
BELOW 15 PERCENT MIN RH VALUES NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...RH
RECOVERIES SHOULD BE GOOD MOST LOCALES TONIGHT. VENT RATES GOOD OR
BETTER MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND IMPROVE MARKEDLY
SUNDAY.

WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY STILL SOMEWHAT OF A FORECAST
PROBLEM...POSSIBLY DUE IN PART TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE MORE THAN ONE
DISTURBANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. STRONGEST H7 WINDS INDICATED 12Z
SUNDAY AND AGAIN 12Z MONDAY...WITH 40KT OR MORE ALONG THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN 12Z MONDAY. SUSPECT THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER DOWNSLOPE
WINDS EARLY MONDAY THAN WHAT CAN BE POPULATED FROM MODELS AT THE
PRESENT TIME. OTHERWISE MODELS STILL WANT TO INCREASE DEW POINTS FOR
SUNDAY EXCEPT THE ECMWF WHICH IS DRIER AND TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION. STILL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD DRY CONVECTION WEST AND CENTRAL
AS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE PASSES OVERHEAD. SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FRONT TO DROP INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. VENT RATES REMAIN GENERALLY EXCELLENT MONDAY THEN ARE
MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE IS SHUNTED EASTWARD BY THE
INCOMING SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST. 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER...SO BOTH
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 251109
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
509 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SHIFTING EASTWARD TODAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY
BECOME BREEZY AT TIMES AFT 18Z AS LEE SFC TROUGH DEVELOPS. VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...330 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE EASTWARD TODAY
WHILE ABOVE NORMAL AND EVEN NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY
WHILE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BECOME MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IN
ADDITION TO THE BREEZY CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE
AVERAGE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
MONDAY...MOSTLY IN NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WHILE
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE. ONCE THE FRONT INVADES THE
STATE MONDAY NIGHT...A COOLER DAY WILL BE IN STORE ON
TUESDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND TRANQUIL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WARM AND POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING DAY WILL BE ON HAND
TODAY. PRESSURE HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REDUCE BY A
FEW DECAMETERS AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO TX. CLEAR SKIES WILL
HOLD AND BREEZES SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH THE LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH NOT EXPECTED TO DEEPEN MUCH TODAY. CLOUDS IN
THE MID TO HIGH LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL APPROACH NM FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC TREKS OVER NM.

A MORE POTENT TROUGH DRIVEN BY THE POLAR JET WILL THEN BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FLUX OF
MEAGER MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY LIKELY OF THE VIRGA VARIETY WITH
MINIMAL RAIN MAKING IT TO THE GROUND...BUT GUSTY WINDS
ACCOMPANYING ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
WINDS...THE DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW WILL COUPLE WITH A
STRONGER GRADIENT...AND WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INDUCING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON MORE OF
A SYNOPTIC SCALE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CLIMB AS HIGH IN SOME
WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALL AREAS WILL STILL EXCEED
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES BY 6 TO 18 DEGREES. HAVE KEPT SOME POPS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BUT DYNAMICS ALOFT LOOK RATHER
WEAK AND WOULD THINK MINIMAL ACTIVITY WOULD BE ABLE TO SURVIVE
AFTER DARK.

AS THE POLAR JET CARRIES THE TROUGH...DEEPENING INTO A LOW...OVER
THE CANADIAN BORDER...TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PASS OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND WILL JUST SKIRT THE NM/CO BORDER. SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THIS PASSING SYSTEM ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WITH
COOLER THAN AVERAGE READINGS IN THE EAST AND MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST. SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE MID WEEK PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH ANOTHER RIDGE
PASSING OVERHEAD AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW TODAY AND STRENGTHENS SUNDAY. VENT RATES
WILL IMPROVE TODAY AND MORE SO SUNDAY. HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...AND SOME NEAR RECORD VALUES POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY AND SUNDAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE SUNDAY COULD
SPARK A FEW DRY SHOWERS AND STORMS WEST AND CENTRAL. POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAINLY NORTHEAST QUARTER SUNDAY BUT
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST GOOD. A FRONT
MONDAY WILL COOL HIGHS DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE THEY
FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND AND GENERALLY POOR VENTILATION UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WAVES GOODBYE TO NEW MEXICO TODAY AS FLOW TRANSITIONS
TO ZONAL AND STRENGTHENS SUNDAY. SOME NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY AS SOME WESTERLY BREEZES PICK UP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL.
MODELS UNDERDID THE DRIER DEW POINTS OBSERVED FRIDAY IN THE WRN MTS
SO MADE SOME TWEAKS DOWNWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH LEAD TO SOME
BELOW 15 PERCENT MIN RH VALUES NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...RH
RECOVERIES SHOULD BE GOOD MOST LOCALES TONIGHT. VENT RATES GOOD OR
BETTER MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND IMPROVE MARKEDLY
SUNDAY.

WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY STILL SOMEWHAT OF A FORECAST
PROBLEM...POSSIBLY DUE IN PART TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE MORE THAN ONE
DISTURBANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. STRONGEST H7 WINDS INDICATED 12Z
SUNDAY AND AGAIN 12Z MONDAY...WITH 40KT OR MORE ALONG THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN 12Z MONDAY. SUSPECT THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER DOWNSLOPE
WINDS EARLY MONDAY THAN WHAT CAN BE POPULATED FROM MODELS AT THE
PRESENT TIME. OTHERWISE MODELS STILL WANT TO INCREASE DEW POINTS FOR
SUNDAY EXCEPT THE ECMWF WHICH IS DRIER AND TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION. STILL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD DRY CONVECTION WEST AND CENTRAL
AS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE PASSES OVERHEAD. SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FRONT TO DROP INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. VENT RATES REMAIN GENERALLY EXCELLENT MONDAY THEN ARE
MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE IS SHUNTED EASTWARD BY THE
INCOMING SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST. 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER...SO BOTH
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 250930
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
330 AM MDT SAT OCT 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL NUDGE EASTWARD TODAY
WHILE ABOVE NORMAL AND EVEN NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE
OBSERVED ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TODAY WILL GRADUALLY GIVE WAY TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER FROM THE WEST TONIGHT AND INTO SUNDAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE SOME SPRINKLES AND LIGHT RAIN SUNDAY
WHILE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT BECOME MIXED DOWN TO THE SURFACE. IN
ADDITION TO THE BREEZY CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES WILL STAY ABOVE
AVERAGE. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ON
MONDAY...MOSTLY IN NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO WHILE
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE STATE. ONCE THE FRONT INVADES THE
STATE MONDAY NIGHT...A COOLER DAY WILL BE IN STORE ON
TUESDAY...BUT HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE CLOSE TO AVERAGE.
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL REMAIN DRY AND TRANQUIL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ANOTHER WARM AND POTENTIALLY RECORD-BREAKING DAY WILL BE ON HAND
TODAY. PRESSURE HEIGHTS ALOFT ARE STILL EXPECTED TO REDUCE BY A
FEW DECAMETERS AS THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS INTO TX. CLEAR SKIES WILL
HOLD AND BREEZES SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE WITH THE LEE
SIDE SURFACE TROUGH NOT EXPECTED TO DEEPEN MUCH TODAY. CLOUDS IN
THE MID TO HIGH LEVELS OF THE TROPOSPHERE WILL APPROACH NM FROM
THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST TONIGHT WHILE A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH
FROM THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC TREKS OVER NM.

A MORE POTENT TROUGH DRIVEN BY THE POLAR JET WILL THEN BEGIN TO
APPROACH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ON SUNDAY. THE ASSOCIATED FLUX OF
MEAGER MID TO UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW STRAY
SHOWERS AND STORMS...MOSTLY LIKELY OF THE VIRGA VARIETY WITH
MINIMAL RAIN MAKING IT TO THE GROUND...BUT GUSTY WINDS
ACCOMPANYING ON SUNDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED
WINDS...THE DEEPENING LEE SIDE SURFACE LOW WILL COUPLE WITH A
STRONGER GRADIENT...AND WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...INDUCING BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ON MORE OF
A SYNOPTIC SCALE. TEMPERATURES WILL NOT CLIMB AS HIGH IN SOME
WESTERN ZONES SUNDAY AFTERNOON...BUT ALL AREAS WILL STILL EXCEED
CLIMATOLOGICAL AVERAGES BY 6 TO 18 DEGREES. HAVE KEPT SOME POPS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING...BUT DYNAMICS ALOFT LOOK RATHER
WEAK AND WOULD THINK MINIMAL ACTIVITY WOULD BE ABLE TO SURVIVE
AFTER DARK.

AS THE POLAR JET CARRIES THE TROUGH...DEEPENING INTO A LOW...OVER
THE CANADIAN BORDER...TRAILING SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL PASS OVER
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND WILL JUST SKIRT THE NM/CO BORDER. SOME
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS HAVE BEEN LEFT IN THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN ZONES TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY PERTURBED NORTHWEST FLOW IN
THE WAKE OF THIS PASSING SYSTEM ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IN
ADDITION...THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT WITH
COOLER THAN AVERAGE READINGS IN THE EAST AND MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES IN THE WEST. SOME FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL THEN BE
POSSIBLE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING...BUT THE REMAINDER
OF THE MID WEEK PERIOD LOOKS TO REMAIN DRY WITH ANOTHER RIDGE
PASSING OVERHEAD AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
TRANSITION TO ZONAL FLOW TODAY AND STRENGTHENS SUNDAY. VENT RATES
WILL IMPROVE TODAY AND MORE SO SUNDAY. HIGHS THROUGH THE WEEKEND
WILL BE WELL ABOVE AVERAGE...AND SOME NEAR RECORD VALUES POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY AND SUNDAY. MID LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE SUNDAY COULD
SPARK A FEW DRY SHOWERS AND STORMS WEST AND CENTRAL. POTENTIAL FOR
LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAINLY NORTHEAST QUARTER SUNDAY BUT
OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT LEAST GOOD. A FRONT
MONDAY WILL COOL HIGHS DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE THEY
FALL TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE TUESDAY. DRY WEATHER WITH A WARMING
TREND AND GENERALLY POOR VENTILATION UNDER A BUILDING RIDGE ALOFT
FORECAST FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.

UPPER RIDGE WAVES GOODBYE TO NEW MEXICO TODAY AS FLOW TRANSITIONS
TO ZONAL AND STRENGTHENS SUNDAY. SOME NEAR RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE
AGAIN TODAY AS SOME WESTERLY BREEZES PICK UP OVER THE EAST CENTRAL.
MODELS UNDERDID THE DRIER DEW POINTS OBSERVED FRIDAY IN THE WRN MTS
SO MADE SOME TWEAKS DOWNWARD FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH LEAD TO SOME
BELOW 15 PERCENT MIN RH VALUES NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. HOWEVER...RH
RECOVERIES SHOULD BE GOOD MOST LOCALES TONIGHT. VENT RATES GOOD OR
BETTER MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA TODAY...AND IMPROVE MARKEDLY
SUNDAY.

WINDS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY STILL SOMEWHAT OF A FORECAST
PROBLEM...POSSIBLY DUE IN PART TO WHAT APPEARS TO BE MORE THAN ONE
DISTURBANCE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. STRONGEST H7 WINDS INDICATED 12Z
SUNDAY AND AGAIN 12Z MONDAY...WITH 40KT OR MORE ALONG THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN 12Z MONDAY. SUSPECT THERE COULD BE SOME STRONGER DOWNSLOPE
WINDS EARLY MONDAY THAN WHAT CAN BE POPULATED FROM MODELS AT THE
PRESENT TIME. OTHERWISE MODELS STILL WANT TO INCREASE DEW POINTS FOR
SUNDAY EXCEPT THE ECMWF WHICH IS DRIER AND TRENDED IN THAT
DIRECTION. STILL POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD DRY CONVECTION WEST AND CENTRAL
AS SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE PASSES OVERHEAD. SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FRONT TO DROP INTO THE PLAINS MONDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BY
TUESDAY. VENT RATES REMAIN GENERALLY EXCELLENT MONDAY THEN ARE
MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY AS THE UPPER RIDGE
REBUILDS OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. SOME IMPROVEMENT IS POSSIBLE BY
FRIDAY DEPENDING HOW QUICKLY THE RIDGE IS SHUNTED EASTWARD BY THE
INCOMING SYSTEM ALONG THE WEST COAST. 00Z ECMWF IS SLOWER...SO BOTH
MODELS SUGGEST IT WILL BE DRY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY
AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT TAF SITES KGUP...KTCC AND
KLVS. OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED.

34

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  77  46  72  41 /   0   0  10   5
DULCE...........................  75  34  67  31 /   0   0  20  10
CUBA............................  76  41  69  38 /   0   0  20  20
GALLUP..........................  75  41  70  38 /   0   5  20  10
EL MORRO........................  72  41  68  37 /   0   5  20  20
GRANTS..........................  76  42  73  40 /   0   5  20  10
QUEMADO.........................  74  43  71  42 /   0   5  20  10
GLENWOOD........................  79  45  77  42 /   0   0  10   5
CHAMA...........................  70  31  65  28 /   0   0  20  20
LOS ALAMOS......................  74  46  69  43 /   0   0  10  10
PECOS...........................  72  42  71  42 /   0   0  10  10
CERRO/QUESTA....................  74  37  66  36 /   0   0  10  10
RED RIVER.......................  65  26  56  25 /   0   0  10  10
ANGEL FIRE......................  71  23  61  22 /   0   0  10  10
TAOS............................  74  37  67  35 /   0   0  10  10
MORA............................  76  43  68  41 /   0   0  10  10
ESPANOLA........................  79  38  75  36 /   0   0   5  10
SANTA FE........................  73  47  71  44 /   0   0   5  10
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  76  45  74  43 /   0   0   5  10
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  76  52  75  49 /   0   0   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  78  56  77  53 /   0   0   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  80  46  79  43 /   0   0   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  80  48  79  46 /   0   0   5   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  79  45  78  45 /   0   0   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  80  51  79  48 /   0   0   5   5
SOCORRO.........................  82  50  82  50 /   0   0   5   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  74  45  73  46 /   0   0  10  20
TIJERAS.........................  75  47  74  47 /   0   0  10  10
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  78  38  76  39 /   0   0  10  10
CLINES CORNERS..................  76  47  72  45 /   0   0  10  10
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  74  48  74  49 /   0   0  10  10
CARRIZOZO.......................  80  48  78  50 /   0   0  10  10
RUIDOSO.........................  73  47  71  44 /   0   0  10  10
CAPULIN.........................  80  40  74  39 /   0   0   0   5
RATON...........................  82  42  76  41 /   0   0   0   5
SPRINGER........................  83  42  77  42 /   0   0   0   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  79  47  74  45 /   0   0  10  10
CLAYTON.........................  84  52  85  51 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  80  49  79  47 /   0   0   0   5
CONCHAS.........................  86  52  85  52 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA ROSA......................  85  52  84  52 /   0   0   0   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  87  52  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  83  51  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  84  50  85  52 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  84  51  86  53 /   0   0   0   5
ROSWELL.........................  84  49  88  53 /   0   0   0   5
PICACHO.........................  81  49  82  51 /   0   0  10  10
ELK.............................  77  48  77  50 /   0   0  10  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 250532 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1132 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY
AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON...MAINLY AT TAF SITES KGUP...KTCC AND
KLVS. OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION HAZARDS EXPECTED.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...327 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER
NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING
MAINLY SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT TO BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST A BIT TONIGHT AND MORE SO
SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ALOFT RAMPING UP SOME SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MORE SO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS MAINLY
IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TOP OR AT LEAST
APPROACH RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY SOME STRONGER SURFACE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH JUST A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN COOL BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MOST AREAS WITH A COLD FRONT HAVING SCOOTED THROUGH
THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT AREAWIDE WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY
AND LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY CALM WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO EASE
SLIGHTLY EAST TONIGHT...EVEN MORE SO SAT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL STILL BE RATHER WEAK SAT AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH
TRIES TO TAKE SHAPE TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN JUST A FEW DEGREES OF THOSE TODAY WITH
AGAIN A FEW HIGH TEMP RECORDS IN JEOPARDY...PARTICULARLY IN THE NE
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SOME HIGH TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN EASING INTO WEST NM
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WHILE A SW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SFC GRADIENT AND WIND SPEEDS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIND ADVISORY TYPE SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE...BUT SOME BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ARE STILL EXPECTED IN A WARMER
THAN NORMAL AND HIGH MIXING REGIME SUN AFTN. WITH SOME VERY MODEST
INCOMING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT TEMPERATURE LAPSE
RATES A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...OR MORE LIKELY JUST SPRINKLES...AND
PERHAPS EVEN A DRY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MAINLY
NW THIRD OF FCST AREA. THIS RELATIVELY MODEST CONVECTION MAY LOCALLY
ENHANCE ANY GUSTS IN THIS AREA AND EVEN A LITTLE WAYS OUTSIDE OF
THIS AREA WHERE ANY VIRGA CAN DEVELOP.

A TRAILING SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE PROGRESSIVE LONGER WAVE
PATTERN MAY PUSH INTO THE STATE BY MON. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW
MORE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES
MON AND MON NIGHT. SOME INDICATIONS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
SPILL INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH MON NIGHT...FORCING
TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE. A DRIER AND MORE RELAXED
WESTERLY FLOW WOULD PREVAIL ON TUE AND WED WITH ANOTHER STRONG
RIDGE MOVING OVER NM THU AND FRI.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO SITTING IN FRONT OF
INTENSIFYING TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN WELL OFF SAN FRANCISCO BAY. TROUGH WILL SWEEP OVER THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST SATURDAY AS TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP
TROUGH DEEP...AND DIG TROUGH EXTENT SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TROUGH WILL SHEAR RAPIDLY
EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY...WITH A THIRD SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFYING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC AND MOVING ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA
COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND SHEARING ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. AS MAIN TROUGH ENERGY PLUNGES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE EASTERN U.S...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN FROM THE CENTRAL MIDWEST STATES SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS
NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT INTO TEXAS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MOVE TO THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY AN ON OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON
FRIDAY. CORE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO SOUTH TEXAS AND EASTERN CHIHUAHUA
AS NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES FROM THE NORTHWEST CANADIAN
ARCTIC...TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...TO THE EAST PACIFIC WELL OFF SAN
DIEGO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...LEAVING NEW MEXICO IN WEAK SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER OVERNIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...STEADY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS RIDGE CORE MOVES TO
CENTRAL TEXAS AND WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO WORK IN OVER
NEW MEXICO WITH THE FIRST HINTS OF SOME CLOUD COVER BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO THE TEENS OVER
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND THE 20S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. IMPROVING VENTILATION CONDITIONS BROADLY WITH MARGINAL BOOST
IN TRANSPORT WINDS. HAINES INDICES WILL RUN 5 OR HIGHER OVER THE
EASTERN TIER OF THE STATE NEAR THE TX AND OKLAHOMA BORDERS. GOOD
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD AS SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SOUTHWEST
BREEZES WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE
FROM THE ARIZONA LINE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE..AND
ACROSS AND DOWNWIND ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT
EASTERN PLAINS. PLUME OF BREEZY WINDS WILL EXTEND EASTWARD ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE TEXAS
LINE...AND LOCALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
PCT...DRY SPOTS WILL NOT LINE UP WITH THE WINDY SPOTS...PRECLUDING
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS. HAINES INDICES WILL ALSO FALL
THROUGH THE MORNING TO END UP NEAR 2 OR 3 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
STATEWIDE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER HIGHLY LOCALIZED THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. NO VENTILATION ISSUES DURING AN OTHERWISE BREEZY DAY.
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. FAIR TO
GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...EXCELLENT RECOVERIES LOCALLY IN
THE WEST.

FOR MONDAY...MUCH COOLER AS COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO...AND CLOUD COVER LIMITS DAYTIME
TEMPERATURE EXCURSIONS. DESPITE THE COOLING...MOST SPOTS WILL REMAIN
6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST...AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IN
THE WEST. WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...WITH CONTINUED BREEZINESS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUMMITS AND EASTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S
PCT TO REMAIN OUT OF WIDESPREAD FIRE DANGER WITH SOME LOCALIZED
HAINES VALUES OF 5 SHOWING UP NEAR THE TEXAS LINE NEAR TUCUMCARI.
CONTINUED FAVORABLE VENTILATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40...WITH FIRST SIGNS OF DEGRADING CONDITIONS SHOWING UP NORTH OF I
40 THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK
AFTER COOL START TO TUESDAY IN AN OTHERWISE DRY PERIOD...AND TURNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE EAST ON THURSDAY. GENTLE DRYING WILL KEEP
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BROADLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S PCT RANGE. A FEW
BREEZES WEDNESDAY OVER THE I 40 CORRIDOR EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WITH WIND DIRECTIONS SHIFTING EAST THURSDAY AS COLD
FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. DEGRADED VENTILATION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME
MARGINALLY BETTER CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 242321 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
521 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AS UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD SATURDAY...SOUTHWEST WINDS MAY BECOME BREEZY
AT TIMES IN THE AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...NO AVIATION HAZARDS
EXPECTED.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...327 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER
NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING
MAINLY SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT TO BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST A BIT TONIGHT AND MORE SO
SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ALOFT RAMPING UP SOME SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MORE SO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS MAINLY
IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TOP OR AT LEAST
APPROACH RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY SOME STRONGER SURFACE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH JUST A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN COOL BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MOST AREAS WITH A COLD FRONT HAVING SCOOTED THROUGH
THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT AREAWIDE WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY
AND LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY CALM WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO EASE
SLIGHTLY EAST TONIGHT...EVEN MORE SO SAT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL STILL BE RATHER WEAK SAT AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH
TRIES TO TAKE SHAPE TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN JUST A FEW DEGREES OF THOSE TODAY WITH
AGAIN A FEW HIGH TEMP RECORDS IN JEOPARDY...PARTICULARLY IN THE NE
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SOME HIGH TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN EASING INTO WEST NM
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WHILE A SW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SFC GRADIENT AND WIND SPEEDS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIND ADVISORY TYPE SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE...BUT SOME BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ARE STILL EXPECTED IN A WARMER
THAN NORMAL AND HIGH MIXING REGIME SUN AFTN. WITH SOME VERY MODEST
INCOMING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT TEMPERATURE LAPSE
RATES A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...OR MORE LIKELY JUST SPRINKLES...AND
PERHAPS EVEN A DRY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MAINLY
NW THIRD OF FCST AREA. THIS RELATIVELY MODEST CONVECTION MAY LOCALLY
ENHANCE ANY GUSTS IN THIS AREA AND EVEN A LITTLE WAYS OUTSIDE OF
THIS AREA WHERE ANY VIRGA CAN DEVELOP.

A TRAILING SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE PROGRESSIVE LONGER WAVE
PATTERN MAY PUSH INTO THE STATE BY MON. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW
MORE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES
MON AND MON NIGHT. SOME INDICATIONS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
SPILL INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH MON NIGHT...FORCING
TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE. A DRIER AND MORE RELAXED
WESTERLY FLOW WOULD PREVAIL ON TUE AND WED WITH ANOTHER STRONG
RIDGE MOVING OVER NM THU AND FRI.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO SITTING IN FRONT OF
INTENSIFYING TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN WELL OFF SAN FRANCISCO BAY. TROUGH WILL SWEEP OVER THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST SATURDAY AS TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP
TROUGH DEEP...AND DIG TROUGH EXTENT SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TROUGH WILL SHEAR RAPIDLY
EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY...WITH A THIRD SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFYING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC AND MOVING ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA
COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND SHEARING ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. AS MAIN TROUGH ENERGY PLUNGES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE EASTERN U.S...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN FROM THE CENTRAL MIDWEST STATES SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS
NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT INTO TEXAS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MOVE TO THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY AN ON OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON
FRIDAY. CORE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO SOUTH TEXAS AND EASTERN CHIHUAHUA
AS NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES FROM THE NORTHWEST CANADIAN
ARCTIC...TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...TO THE EAST PACIFIC WELL OFF SAN
DIEGO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...LEAVING NEW MEXICO IN WEAK SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER OVERNIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...STEADY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS RIDGE CORE MOVES TO
CENTRAL TEXAS AND WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO WORK IN OVER
NEW MEXICO WITH THE FIRST HINTS OF SOME CLOUD COVER BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO THE TEENS OVER
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND THE 20S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. IMPROVING VENTILATION CONDITIONS BROADLY WITH MARGINAL BOOST
IN TRANSPORT WINDS. HAINES INDICES WILL RUN 5 OR HIGHER OVER THE
EASTERN TIER OF THE STATE NEAR THE TX AND OKLAHOMA BORDERS. GOOD
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD AS SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SOUTHWEST
BREEZES WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE
FROM THE ARIZONA LINE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE..AND
ACROSS AND DOWNWIND ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT
EASTERN PLAINS. PLUME OF BREEZY WINDS WILL EXTEND EASTWARD ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE TEXAS
LINE...AND LOCALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
PCT...DRY SPOTS WILL NOT LINE UP WITH THE WINDY SPOTS...PRECLUDING
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS. HAINES INDICES WILL ALSO FALL
THROUGH THE MORNING TO END UP NEAR 2 OR 3 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
STATEWIDE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER HIGHLY LOCALIZED THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. NO VENTILATION ISSUES DURING AN OTHERWISE BREEZY DAY.
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. FAIR TO
GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...EXCELLENT RECOVERIES LOCALLY IN
THE WEST.

FOR MONDAY...MUCH COOLER AS COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO...AND CLOUD COVER LIMITS DAYTIME
TEMPERATURE EXCURSIONS. DESPITE THE COOLING...MOST SPOTS WILL REMAIN
6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST...AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IN
THE WEST. WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...WITH CONTINUED BREEZINESS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUMMITS AND EASTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S
PCT TO REMAIN OUT OF WIDESPREAD FIRE DANGER WITH SOME LOCALIZED
HAINES VALUES OF 5 SHOWING UP NEAR THE TEXAS LINE NEAR TUCUMCARI.
CONTINUED FAVORABLE VENTILATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40...WITH FIRST SIGNS OF DEGRADING CONDITIONS SHOWING UP NORTH OF I
40 THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK
AFTER COOL START TO TUESDAY IN AN OTHERWISE DRY PERIOD...AND TURNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE EAST ON THURSDAY. GENTLE DRYING WILL KEEP
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BROADLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S PCT RANGE. A FEW
BREEZES WEDNESDAY OVER THE I 40 CORRIDOR EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WITH WIND DIRECTIONS SHIFTING EAST THURSDAY AS COLD
FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. DEGRADED VENTILATION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME
MARGINALLY BETTER CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 242127
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
327 PM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UNSEASONABLY WARM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER
NORTH AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO...BUT THERE WILL BE SOME COOLING
MAINLY SUNDAY ACROSS NORTHWEST HALF OF FORECAST AREA. HIGH
PRESSURE ALOFT TO BEGIN TO SHIFT EAST A BIT TONIGHT AND MORE SO
SATURDAY. SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS ALOFT RAMPING UP SOME SATURDAY
NIGHT AND MORE SO SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. SOME LOCATIONS MAINLY
IN THE NORTHEAST THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL TOP OR AT LEAST
APPROACH RECORD HIGHS SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY SOME STRONGER SURFACE
WINDS WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH JUST A FEW STRAY LIGHT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN MAINLY THE NORTHWEST THIRD OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD THEN COOL BACK CLOSE TO AVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT
AND TUESDAY MOST AREAS WITH A COLD FRONT HAVING SCOOTED THROUGH
THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
VERY QUIET NIGHT TONIGHT AREAWIDE WITH NARY A CLOUD IN THE SKY
AND LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY CALM WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT TO EASE
SLIGHTLY EAST TONIGHT...EVEN MORE SO SAT. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL STILL BE RATHER WEAK SAT AFTERNOON AS A WEAK SFC TROUGH
TRIES TO TAKE SHAPE TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WITHIN JUST A FEW DEGREES OF THOSE TODAY WITH
AGAIN A FEW HIGH TEMP RECORDS IN JEOPARDY...PARTICULARLY IN THE NE
THIRD OF THE FORECAST AREA.

SOME HIGH TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN EASING INTO WEST NM
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN WHILE A SW FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS. STILL LOOKS
LIKE SFC GRADIENT AND WIND SPEEDS ALOFT WILL BE QUITE ENOUGH TO
PRODUCE WIND ADVISORY TYPE SPEEDS AT THE SURFACE...BUT SOME BREEZY
TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ARE STILL EXPECTED IN A WARMER
THAN NORMAL AND HIGH MIXING REGIME SUN AFTN. WITH SOME VERY MODEST
INCOMING MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT TEMPERATURE LAPSE
RATES A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS...OR MORE LIKELY JUST SPRINKLES...AND
PERHAPS EVEN A DRY THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A POSSIBILITY ACROSS MAINLY
NW THIRD OF FCST AREA. THIS RELATIVELY MODEST CONVECTION MAY LOCALLY
ENHANCE ANY GUSTS IN THIS AREA AND EVEN A LITTLE WAYS OUTSIDE OF
THIS AREA WHERE ANY VIRGA CAN DEVELOP.

A TRAILING SHORT WAVE EMBEDDED IN THE PROGRESSIVE LONGER WAVE
PATTERN MAY PUSH INTO THE STATE BY MON. THIS MAY TRIGGER A FEW
MORE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO NORTHEASTERN ZONES
MON AND MON NIGHT. SOME INDICATIONS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL ALSO
SPILL INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH MON NIGHT...FORCING
TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE. A DRIER AND MORE RELAXED
WESTERLY FLOW WOULD PREVAIL ON TUE AND WED WITH ANOTHER STRONG
RIDGE MOVING OVER NM THU AND FRI.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK.

MODELS...IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK AND THE
FOLLOWING WORK WEEK. RIDGE OVER NEW MEXICO SITTING IN FRONT OF
INTENSIFYING TROUGH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA TO THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN WELL OFF SAN FRANCISCO BAY. TROUGH WILL SWEEP OVER THE
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST SATURDAY AS TRAILING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP
TROUGH DEEP...AND DIG TROUGH EXTENT SOUTHWARD OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA BY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. TROUGH WILL SHEAR RAPIDLY
EASTWARD ACROSS NEW MEXICO ON SUNDAY...WITH A THIRD SHORTWAVE
AMPLIFYING OVER THE EAST PACIFIC AND MOVING ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA
COAST EARLY MONDAY MORNING...AND SHEARING ACROSS NEW MEXICO THROUGH
MONDAY EVENING. AS MAIN TROUGH ENERGY PLUNGES ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI
RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE EASTERN U.S...POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
WILL DEEPEN FROM THE CENTRAL MIDWEST STATES SOUTH AND WEST ACROSS
NEW MEXICO ON WEDNESDAY...AND THIS FEATURE WILL DRIFT INTO TEXAS
WEDNESDAY EVENING. UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA AND NORTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MOVE TO THE LOWER
COLORADO RIVER VALLEY ON THURSDAY AN ON OVER WESTERN NEW MEXICO ON
FRIDAY. CORE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY TO SOUTH TEXAS AND EASTERN CHIHUAHUA
AS NEXT UPSTREAM TROUGH AMPLIFIES FROM THE NORTHWEST CANADIAN
ARCTIC...TO NORTHERN CALIFORNIA...TO THE EAST PACIFIC WELL OFF SAN
DIEGO BY LATE IN THE WEEKEND...LEAVING NEW MEXICO IN WEAK SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT.

OVERNIGHT...GENERALLY GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT
WINDS. TEMPERATURES A LITTLE WARMER OVERNIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...STEADY TEMPERATURE TRENDS AS RIDGE CORE MOVES TO
CENTRAL TEXAS AND WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO WORK IN OVER
NEW MEXICO WITH THE FIRST HINTS OF SOME CLOUD COVER BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON OVER THE WESTERN END OF THE STATE. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE
MOSTLY SOUTHWEST AND LIGHT. HUMIDITIES WILL FALL TO THE TEENS OVER
NORTHERN NEW MEXICO...AND THE 20S FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
STATE. IMPROVING VENTILATION CONDITIONS BROADLY WITH MARGINAL BOOST
IN TRANSPORT WINDS. HAINES INDICES WILL RUN 5 OR HIGHER OVER THE
EASTERN TIER OF THE STATE NEAR THE TX AND OKLAHOMA BORDERS. GOOD
HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT.

FOR SUNDAY...STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD AS SURFACE TROUGH
DEEPENS FROM THE WESTERN DAKOTAS TO SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO. SOUTHWEST
BREEZES WILL BECOME WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE STATE
FROM THE ARIZONA LINE EASTWARD ACROSS THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE..AND
ACROSS AND DOWNWIND ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND ADJACENT
EASTERN PLAINS. PLUME OF BREEZY WINDS WILL EXTEND EASTWARD ALONG THE
INTERSTATE 40 CORRIDOR FROM THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS TO THE TEXAS
LINE...AND LOCALLY OVER THE NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS AND ADJACENT PLAINS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WITH MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE TEENS AND LOW 20S
PCT...DRY SPOTS WILL NOT LINE UP WITH THE WINDY SPOTS...PRECLUDING
WIDESPREAD RED FLAG CONDITIONS. HAINES INDICES WILL ALSO FALL
THROUGH THE MORNING TO END UP NEAR 2 OR 3 BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON
STATEWIDE TO KEEP FIRE WEATHER HIGHLY LOCALIZED THROUGH SUNDAY
EVENING. NO VENTILATION ISSUES DURING AN OTHERWISE BREEZY DAY.
ISOLATED SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS...MAINLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40...THROUGH SUNDAY
NIGHT WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS LESS THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. FAIR TO
GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...EXCELLENT RECOVERIES LOCALLY IN
THE WEST.

FOR MONDAY...MUCH COOLER AS COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTHWARD OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF NEW MEXICO...AND CLOUD COVER LIMITS DAYTIME
TEMPERATURE EXCURSIONS. DESPITE THE COOLING...MOST SPOTS WILL REMAIN
6 TO 12 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL IN THE EAST...AND CLOSER TO NORMAL IN
THE WEST. WEST WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH OVER EASTERN NEW
MEXICO...WITH CONTINUED BREEZINESS IN THE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN SUMMITS AND EASTERN SLOPES AND FOOTHILLS ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HUMIDITIES REMAINING IN THE UPPER TEENS AND 20S
PCT TO REMAIN OUT OF WIDESPREAD FIRE DANGER WITH SOME LOCALIZED
HAINES VALUES OF 5 SHOWING UP NEAR THE TEXAS LINE NEAR TUCUMCARI.
CONTINUED FAVORABLE VENTILATION ALONG AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
40...WITH FIRST SIGNS OF DEGRADING CONDITIONS SHOWING UP NORTH OF I
40 THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES
OVERNIGHT.

OUTLOOK...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...WARMING TREND THROUGH MIDWEEK
AFTER COOL START TO TUESDAY IN AN OTHERWISE DRY PERIOD...AND TURNING
SLIGHTLY COOLER IN THE EAST ON THURSDAY. GENTLE DRYING WILL KEEP
MINIMUM HUMIDITIES BROADLY IN THE TEENS AND 20S PCT RANGE. A FEW
BREEZES WEDNESDAY OVER THE I 40 CORRIDOR EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS...WITH WIND DIRECTIONS SHIFTING EAST THURSDAY AS COLD
FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING. DEGRADED VENTILATION THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SOME
MARGINALLY BETTER CONDITIONS OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

SHY

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VIZ NEXT 24 HRS. RIDGE CORE OVER NM WILL SHIFT TO
CENTRAL TX BY 18Z SAT WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD STARTING
SAT MORNING.

SHY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  40  76  45  72 /   0   0   0   5
DULCE...........................  28  75  34  67 /   0   0   0  10
CUBA............................  35  75  39  69 /   0   0   0  10
GALLUP..........................  33  75  39  70 /   0   0   5   5
EL MORRO........................  34  72  40  67 /   0   0   5   5
GRANTS..........................  32  76  40  72 /   0   0   5   5
QUEMADO.........................  36  74  43  70 /   0   0   5   5
GLENWOOD........................  39  79  43  76 /   0   0   0   5
CHAMA...........................  27  70  31  65 /   0   0   0  10
LOS ALAMOS......................  43  73  45  69 /   0   0   0   5
PECOS...........................  41  72  43  73 /   0   0   0   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  31  74  35  66 /   0   0   0   5
RED RIVER.......................  25  65  25  56 /   0   0   0   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  23  70  24  62 /   0   0   0   5
TAOS............................  30  74  36  68 /   0   0   0  10
MORA............................  38  76  42  69 /   0   0   0   5
ESPANOLA........................  40  79  37  75 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE........................  44  73  46  68 /   0   0   0   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  42  75  43  73 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  48  75  50  74 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  52  77  54  77 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  46  79  47  78 /   0   0   0   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  48  79  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  42  79  44  78 /   0   0   0   5
RIO RANCHO......................  47  80  49  78 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  47  81  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  45  73  42  76 /   0   0   0   5
TIJERAS.........................  45  74  46  76 /   0   0   0   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  37  77  36  75 /   0   0   0   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  44  76  45  73 /   0   0   0   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  45  74  46  73 /   0   0   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  48  78  48  80 /   0   0   0   5
RUIDOSO.........................  42  73  43  73 /   0   0   0   5
CAPULIN.........................  36  79  42  79 /   0   0   0   5
RATON...........................  37  82  41  80 /   0   0   0   5
SPRINGER........................  38  83  41  78 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  42  79  45  75 /   0   0   0   5
CLAYTON.........................  50  85  50  85 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  45  81  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  48  87  51  86 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  48  85  51  84 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  49  88  51  88 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  50  84  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  49  85  48  87 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  50  85  50  87 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  48  85  48  89 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  47  81  48  82 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  46  77  47  77 /   0   0   0   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

43






000
FXUS65 KABQ 241734 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1134 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.UPDATE...
BASED ON 11 AM MDT TEMPS AND LATEST MOS GUIDANCE FOR AREAS E OF
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DECIDED TO DO QUICK UPDATE JUST FOR MAX TEMPS
FOR TODAY. RAISED MOST LOCATIONS 2 TO 5 DEGREES...PRIMARILY NE AND
E CENTRAL NM. ZONES OUT WITHIN 5 MIN.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1121 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VIZ NEXT 24 HRS. RIDGE CORE OVER NM WILL SHIFT TO
CENTRAL TX BY 18Z SAT WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD STARTING
SAT MORNING.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE OVER THE STATE TODAY...SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST INTO SATURDAY
WITH STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY...NAMELY
IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND BY SUNDAY SOME STRONGER SURFACE
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SOME SPRINKLES IN CENTRAL TO WESTERN PARTS
OF NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO COOL BACK CLOSE
TO AVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT SPILLS INTO NEW
MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SOME MENTION OF FOG FOR THIS MORNING`S FORECAST
IN THE LOWER PECOS AND MORENO VALLEYS...ALTHOUGH NOTHING HAS
DEVELOPED JUST YET. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SMALL...SO THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL BEFORE DAWN. AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTRALLY
ESTABLISHED OVER NM TODAY...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
SOME POTENTIAL RECORD HIGHS IN A FEW ZONES. LIGHT BREEZES AND JUST
A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON.

DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLIGHTLY EAST SATURDAY...AND PRESSURE
HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE BY A FEW DECAMETERS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL STILL BE RATHER WEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY COMPARABLE TO FRIDAY`S READINGS
WITH AGAIN A FEW RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOME HIGH TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ENCROACHING UPON
WESTERN NM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS
WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. SPEEDS IN THE H7-H5 LAYER ARE NOT
QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO INDUCE WIND ADVISORY TYPE SPEEDS AT THE
SURFACE...BUT SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ARE STILL
EXPECTED IN A WARMER THAN NORMAL AND HIGH MIXING REGIME.
ALSO...SOME OF THE MEAGER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN DRY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE ANY GUSTS IN CENTRAL TO
WESTERN NM. AS FAR AS ANY DYNAMICS ALOFT...WHILE THE GRADIENT AND
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY...THE CORE OF ANY VORTICITY
LOBES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH SHOULD STAY FARTHER NORTH
INTO COLORADO AND BEYOND.

A TRAILING LOBE OF ENERGY MAY PUSH INTO THE STATE BY MONDAY. THIS
COULD INDUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN ZONES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WOULD
ALSO SPILL INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...SETTING
TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE. A DRIER AND MORE RELAXED
WESTERLY FLOW WOULD PREVAIL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
BRIEF RIDGE SLATED TO MOVE OVER NM BY THURSDAY.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS TODAY THEN MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT
AND STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME CIRRUS WILL DRIFT OVER
THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE...AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE FOUND. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE ON SUNDAY COULD SPARK A FEW DRY SHOWERS
AND STORMS CENTRAL AND WEST. A FRONT ON MONDAY WILL COOL HIGHS
DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS GOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH. DRY WEATHER AND
WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN THE OUTLOOK FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

UNDER THE RIDGE TODAY...NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE AT SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS...AND VENTILATION WILL BE ONLY FAIR TO POOR MANY
AREAS CENTRAL AND WEST...WHILE MUCH OF THE EAST SHOULD SEE GOOD VENT
RATES. LEE TROUGH STARTS TO STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AS DO MOUNTAIN TOP
WINDS BUT WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS. RH VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT
THOUGH AND MODERATE TO HIGH HAINES WILL BLANKET THE EAST. SO CAN/T
RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAINLY NORTHEAST QUARTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING.

MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTH SUNDAY BUT FOR SOME
REASON...MODELS ALSO TREND DEW POINTS HIGHER. NOT SURE WHY...SO
DIDN/T MAKE MANY CHANGES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE DOES INCREASE WHICH
COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED DRY CONVECTION WEST AND CENTRAL AND
FORECAST HAINES IS LOW OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST. SURFACE WIND
FORECAST MODEL WISE IS LOWER THAN WHAT WAS INHERITED GRID
WISE...PERHAPS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. BUT FORECAST HIGHS
STILL WELL ABOVE CLIMO...SO CAN/T RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH MOSTLY LIKELY AREAS BEING
THE EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS TO CLINES CORNERS AND EASTWARD.
OTHERWISE VENT RATES IMPROVE SATURDAY BUT MUCH MORE ON SUNDAY.

DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN MAY STAY GUSTY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY BUT HIGHS START TO COOL DOWN AND FORECAST
HAINES LOW WITH SOME PATCHY MODERATE VALUES EAST. AS WINDS DIMINISH
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SO DO VENT RATES TO MOSTLY FAIR OR POOR.
HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH ONLY BY
A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

43






000
FXUS65 KABQ 241721 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1121 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VIZ NEXT 24 HRS. RIDGE CORE OVER NM WILL SHIFT TO
CENTRAL TX BY 18Z SAT WITH WEAK SOUTHWEST FLOW OVERHEAD STARTING
SAT MORNING.

SHY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE OVER THE STATE TODAY...SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST INTO SATURDAY
WITH STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY...NAMELY
IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND BY SUNDAY SOME STRONGER SURFACE
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SOME SPRINKLES IN CENTRAL TO WESTERN PARTS
OF NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO COOL BACK CLOSE
TO AVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT SPILLS INTO NEW
MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SOME MENTION OF FOG FOR THIS MORNING`S FORECAST
IN THE LOWER PECOS AND MORENO VALLEYS...ALTHOUGH NOTHING HAS
DEVELOPED JUST YET. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SMALL...SO THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL BEFORE DAWN. AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTRALLY
ESTABLISHED OVER NM TODAY...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
SOME POTENTIAL RECORD HIGHS IN A FEW ZONES. LIGHT BREEZES AND JUST
A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON.

DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLIGHTLY EAST SATURDAY...AND PRESSURE
HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE BY A FEW DECAMETERS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL STILL BE RATHER WEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY COMPARABLE TO FRIDAY`S READINGS
WITH AGAIN A FEW RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOME HIGH TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ENCROACHING UPON
WESTERN NM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS
WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. SPEEDS IN THE H7-H5 LAYER ARE NOT
QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO INDUCE WIND ADVISORY TYPE SPEEDS AT THE
SURFACE...BUT SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ARE STILL
EXPECTED IN A WARMER THAN NORMAL AND HIGH MIXING REGIME.
ALSO...SOME OF THE MEAGER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN DRY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE ANY GUSTS IN CENTRAL TO
WESTERN NM. AS FAR AS ANY DYNAMICS ALOFT...WHILE THE GRADIENT AND
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY...THE CORE OF ANY VORTICITY
LOBES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH SHOULD STAY FARTHER NORTH
INTO COLORADO AND BEYOND.

A TRAILING LOBE OF ENERGY MAY PUSH INTO THE STATE BY MONDAY. THIS
COULD INDUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN ZONES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WOULD
ALSO SPILL INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...SETTING
TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE. A DRIER AND MORE RELAXED
WESTERLY FLOW WOULD PREVAIL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
BRIEF RIDGE SLATED TO MOVE OVER NM BY THURSDAY.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS TODAY THEN MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT
AND STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME CIRRUS WILL DRIFT OVER
THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE...AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE FOUND. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE ON SUNDAY COULD SPARK A FEW DRY SHOWERS
AND STORMS CENTRAL AND WEST. A FRONT ON MONDAY WILL COOL HIGHS
DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS GOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH. DRY WEATHER AND
WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN THE OUTLOOK FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

UNDER THE RIDGE TODAY...NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE AT SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS...AND VENTILATION WILL BE ONLY FAIR TO POOR MANY
AREAS CENTRAL AND WEST...WHILE MUCH OF THE EAST SHOULD SEE GOOD VENT
RATES. LEE TROUGH STARTS TO STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AS DO MOUNTAIN TOP
WINDS BUT WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS. RH VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT
THOUGH AND MODERATE TO HIGH HAINES WILL BLANKET THE EAST. SO CAN/T
RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAINLY NORTHEAST QUARTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING.

MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTH SUNDAY BUT FOR SOME
REASON...MODELS ALSO TREND DEW POINTS HIGHER. NOT SURE WHY...SO
DIDN/T MAKE MANY CHANGES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE DOES INCREASE WHICH
COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED DRY CONVECTION WEST AND CENTRAL AND
FORECAST HAINES IS LOW OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST. SURFACE WIND
FORECAST MODEL WISE IS LOWER THAN WHAT WAS INHERITED GRID
WISE...PERHAPS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. BUT FORECAST HIGHS
STILL WELL ABOVE CLIMO...SO CAN/T RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH MOSTLY LIKELY AREAS BEING
THE EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS TO CLINES CORNERS AND EASTWARD.
OTHERWISE VENT RATES IMPROVE SATURDAY BUT MUCH MORE ON SUNDAY.

DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN MAY STAY GUSTY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY BUT HIGHS START TO COOL DOWN AND FORECAST
HAINES LOW WITH SOME PATCHY MODERATE VALUES EAST. AS WINDS DIMINISH
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SO DO VENT RATES TO MOSTLY FAIR OR POOR.
HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH ONLY BY
A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

43








000
FXUS65 KABQ 241134
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
534 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
UPPER RIDGE WITH PATCHES OF CIRRUS TO DOMINATE THROUGH 01Z.
PATCHY BR WITH IFR CIGS POSSIBLE PECOS VALLEY FROM NEAR KROW SWD
AND EASTWARD AND IN THE MORENO VALLEY UNTIL AROUND 16Z. OTHERWISE
VFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...318 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE OVER THE STATE TODAY...SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST INTO SATURDAY
WITH STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY...NAMELY
IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND BY SUNDAY SOME STRONGER SURFACE
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SOME SPRINKLES IN CENTRAL TO WESTERN PARTS
OF NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO COOL BACK CLOSE
TO AVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT SPILLS INTO NEW
MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SOME MENTION OF FOG FOR THIS MORNING`S FORECAST
IN THE LOWER PECOS AND MORENO VALLEYS...ALTHOUGH NOTHING HAS
DEVELOPED JUST YET. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SMALL...SO THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL BEFORE DAWN. AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTRALLY
ESTABLISHED OVER NM TODAY...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
SOME POTENTIAL RECORD HIGHS IN A FEW ZONES. LIGHT BREEZES AND JUST
A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON.

DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLIGHTLY EAST SATURDAY...AND PRESSURE
HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE BY A FEW DECAMETERS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL STILL BE RATHER WEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY COMPARABLE TO FRIDAY`S READINGS
WITH AGAIN A FEW RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOME HIGH TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ENCROACHING UPON
WESTERN NM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS
WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. SPEEDS IN THE H7-H5 LAYER ARE NOT
QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO INDUCE WIND ADVISORY TYPE SPEEDS AT THE
SURFACE...BUT SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ARE STILL
EXPECTED IN A WARMER THAN NORMAL AND HIGH MIXING REGIME.
ALSO...SOME OF THE MEAGER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN DRY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE ANY GUSTS IN CENTRAL TO
WESTERN NM. AS FAR AS ANY DYNAMICS ALOFT...WHILE THE GRADIENT AND
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY...THE CORE OF ANY VORTICITY
LOBES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH SHOULD STAY FARTHER NORTH
INTO COLORADO AND BEYOND.

A TRAILING LOBE OF ENERGY MAY PUSH INTO THE STATE BY MONDAY. THIS
COULD INDUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN ZONES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WOULD
ALSO SPILL INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...SETTING
TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE. A DRIER AND MORE RELAXED
WESTERLY FLOW WOULD PREVAIL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
BRIEF RIDGE SLATED TO MOVE OVER NM BY THURSDAY.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS TODAY THEN MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT
AND STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME CIRRUS WILL DRIFT OVER
THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE...AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE FOUND. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE ON SUNDAY COULD SPARK A FEW DRY SHOWERS
AND STORMS CENTRAL AND WEST. A FRONT ON MONDAY WILL COOL HIGHS
DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS GOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH. DRY WEATHER AND
WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN THE OUTLOOK FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

UNDER THE RIDGE TODAY...NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE AT SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS...AND VENTILATION WILL BE ONLY FAIR TO POOR MANY
AREAS CENTRAL AND WEST...WHILE MUCH OF THE EAST SHOULD SEE GOOD VENT
RATES. LEE TROUGH STARTS TO STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AS DO MOUNTAIN TOP
WINDS BUT WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS. RH VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT
THOUGH AND MODERATE TO HIGH HAINES WILL BLANKET THE EAST. SO CAN/T
RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAINLY NORTHEAST QUARTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING.

MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTH SUNDAY BUT FOR SOME
REASON...MODELS ALSO TREND DEW POINTS HIGHER. NOT SURE WHY...SO
DIDN/T MAKE MANY CHANGES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE DOES INCREASE WHICH
COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED DRY CONVECTION WEST AND CENTRAL AND
FORECAST HAINES IS LOW OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST. SURFACE WIND
FORECAST MODEL WISE IS LOWER THAN WHAT WAS INHERITED GRID
WISE...PERHAPS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. BUT FORECAST HIGHS
STILL WELL ABOVE CLIMO...SO CAN/T RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH MOSTLY LIKELY AREAS BEING
THE EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS TO CLINES CORNERS AND EASTWARD.
OTHERWISE VENT RATES IMPROVE SATURDAY BUT MUCH MORE ON SUNDAY.

DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN MAY STAY GUSTY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY BUT HIGHS START TO COOL DOWN AND FORECAST
HAINES LOW WITH SOME PATCHY MODERATE VALUES EAST. AS WINDS DIMINISH
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SO DO VENT RATES TO MOSTLY FAIR OR POOR.
HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH ONLY BY
A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 240918
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
318 AM MDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND OVER
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NEW MEXICO. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RESIDE OVER THE STATE TODAY...SHIFTING SLIGHTLY EAST INTO SATURDAY
WITH STRONGER WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT ARRIVING ON SUNDAY. SOME
LOCATIONS WILL APPROACH RECORD HIGHS TODAY AND SATURDAY...NAMELY
IN NORTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO...AND BY SUNDAY SOME STRONGER SURFACE
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG WITH A FEW STRAY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING SOME SPRINKLES IN CENTRAL TO WESTERN PARTS
OF NEW MEXICO. TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED TO COOL BACK CLOSE
TO AVERAGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY AS A FRONT SPILLS INTO NEW
MEXICO.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HAVE OPTED TO KEEP SOME MENTION OF FOG FOR THIS MORNING`S FORECAST
IN THE LOWER PECOS AND MORENO VALLEYS...ALTHOUGH NOTHING HAS
DEVELOPED JUST YET. DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS ARE SMALL...SO THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL BEFORE DAWN. AS HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTRALLY
ESTABLISHED OVER NM TODAY...EXPECT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH
SOME POTENTIAL RECORD HIGHS IN A FEW ZONES. LIGHT BREEZES AND JUST
A FEW HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON.

DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SLIGHTLY EAST SATURDAY...AND PRESSURE
HEIGHTS WILL DECREASE BY A FEW DECAMETERS. SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT WILL STILL BE RATHER WEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH TRYING TO TAKE SHAPE TO THE LEE OF THE SANGRES.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE FAIRLY COMPARABLE TO FRIDAY`S READINGS
WITH AGAIN A FEW RECORDS IN JEOPARDY.

SOME HIGH TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN ENCROACHING UPON
WESTERN NM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY WHILE FLOW ALOFT STRENGTHENS
WITH A WEST SOUTHWEST COMPONENT. SPEEDS IN THE H7-H5 LAYER ARE NOT
QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO INDUCE WIND ADVISORY TYPE SPEEDS AT THE
SURFACE...BUT SOME BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL ARE STILL
EXPECTED IN A WARMER THAN NORMAL AND HIGH MIXING REGIME.
ALSO...SOME OF THE MEAGER MID LEVEL MOISTURE AND SUFFICIENT
TEMPERATURE LAPSE RATES MAY YIELD A FEW SPRINKLES OR EVEN DRY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT COULD LOCALLY ENHANCE ANY GUSTS IN CENTRAL TO
WESTERN NM. AS FAR AS ANY DYNAMICS ALOFT...WHILE THE GRADIENT AND
FLOW ALOFT WILL BE INCREASING SUNDAY...THE CORE OF ANY VORTICITY
LOBES ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSING TROUGH SHOULD STAY FARTHER NORTH
INTO COLORADO AND BEYOND.

A TRAILING LOBE OF ENERGY MAY PUSH INTO THE STATE BY MONDAY. THIS
COULD INDUCE A FEW MORE SHOWERS/STORMS OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL TO
NORTHEASTERN ZONES MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WOULD
ALSO SPILL INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH MONDAY NIGHT...SETTING
TEMPERATURES BACK CLOSER TO AVERAGE. A DRIER AND MORE RELAXED
WESTERLY FLOW WOULD PREVAIL ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER
BRIEF RIDGE SLATED TO MOVE OVER NM BY THURSDAY.

52

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
UPPER RIDGE PREVAILS TODAY THEN MORE ZONAL FLOW DEVELOPS TONIGHT
AND STRENGTHENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME CIRRUS WILL DRIFT OVER
THE REGION TODAY. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE...AND NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
OVER PORTIONS OF THE EAST WHERE DOWNSLOPE WINDS WILL BE FOUND. MID
LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASE ON SUNDAY COULD SPARK A FEW DRY SHOWERS
AND STORMS CENTRAL AND WEST. A FRONT ON MONDAY WILL COOL HIGHS
DOWN...ESPECIALLY IN THE EAST WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY
BELOW AVERAGE BY TUESDAY...AS WELL AS KEEP SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS GOING OVER PORTIONS OF THE NORTH. DRY WEATHER AND
WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS IN THE OUTLOOK FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK.

UNDER THE RIDGE TODAY...NEAR RECORD HIGHS ARE POSSIBLE AT SOME
LOCALIZED AREAS...AND VENTILATION WILL BE ONLY FAIR TO POOR MANY
AREAS CENTRAL AND WEST...WHILE MUCH OF THE EAST SHOULD SEE GOOD VENT
RATES. LEE TROUGH STARTS TO STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AS DO MOUNTAIN TOP
WINDS BUT WINDS MAY NOT BE QUITE STRONG ENOUGH TO REACH CRITICAL
LEVELS. RH VALUES IN THE NORTHEAST WILL RANGE FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT
THOUGH AND MODERATE TO HIGH HAINES WILL BLANKET THE EAST. SO CAN/T
RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL CONDITIONS MAINLY NORTHEAST QUARTER
SATURDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY WITH THE UNSEASONABLY WARM
TEMPERATURES PERSISTING.

MOUNTAIN TOP WINDS STRENGTHEN OVER THE NORTH SUNDAY BUT FOR SOME
REASON...MODELS ALSO TREND DEW POINTS HIGHER. NOT SURE WHY...SO
DIDN/T MAKE MANY CHANGES. MID LEVEL MOISTURE DOES INCREASE WHICH
COULD TRIGGER SOME ISOLATED DRY CONVECTION WEST AND CENTRAL AND
FORECAST HAINES IS LOW OVER ALL BUT THE FAR NORTHEAST. SURFACE WIND
FORECAST MODEL WISE IS LOWER THAN WHAT WAS INHERITED GRID
WISE...PERHAPS DUE TO INCREASED CLOUD COVER. BUT FORECAST HIGHS
STILL WELL ABOVE CLIMO...SO CAN/T RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED CRITICAL
CONDITIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...WITH MOSTLY LIKELY AREAS BEING
THE EAST SLOPES SANGRE DE CRISTO MTS TO CLINES CORNERS AND EASTWARD.
OTHERWISE VENT RATES IMPROVE SATURDAY BUT MUCH MORE ON SUNDAY.

DOWNSLOPE WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN MAY STAY GUSTY SUNDAY
NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY BUT HIGHS START TO COOL DOWN AND FORECAST
HAINES LOW WITH SOME PATCHY MODERATE VALUES EAST. AS WINDS DIMINISH
BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...SO DO VENT RATES TO MOSTLY FAIR OR POOR.
HIGHS WILL REBOUND TO ABOVE AVERAGE BY WEDNESDAY...ALTHOUGH ONLY BY
A FEW DEGREES.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PATCH OF LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING ALONG THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY IN THE VICINITY
OF KROW BY 09Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...THERE MAY BE MORE
HIGH CLOUD COVER THAN INDICATED IN TAFS. IF MORE CIRRUS
EXISTS...CHANCES OF FOG DEVELOPING IN THE MORENO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR KAXX...IS EVEN LOWER. THUS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
QUITE LOW THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.

34

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  76  42  77  45 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  74  30  75  34 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  76  37  75  40 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  77  35  75  39 /   0   0   0   5
EL MORRO........................  73  36  72  40 /   0   0   0   5
GRANTS..........................  77  34  76  40 /   0   0   0   5
QUEMADO.........................  75  38  74  43 /   0   0   0   5
GLENWOOD........................  80  41  79  43 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  70  29  70  31 /   0   0   0   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  74  45  73  46 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  72  43  71  45 /   0   0   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  74  33  73  36 /   0   0   0   0
RED RIVER.......................  65  27  65  27 /   0   0   0   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  69  25  70  25 /   0   0   0   0
TAOS............................  73  32  73  37 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  74  40  75  43 /   0   0   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  78  42  78  38 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  73  46  72  47 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  76  44  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  76  50  75  52 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  78  54  77  55 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  80  48  79  48 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  80  50  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  78  44  79  45 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  80  49  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  81  49  81  49 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  74  47  73  44 /   0   0   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  75  47  74  47 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  77  39  77  38 /   0   0   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  75  46  75  47 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  75  47  74  48 /   0   0   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  79  50  79  50 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  72  44  72  45 /   0   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  79  38  79  44 /   0   0   0   0
RATON...........................  81  39  81  43 /   0   0   0   0
SPRINGER........................  81  40  82  42 /   0   0   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  78  44  78  47 /   0   0   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  84  52  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
ROY.............................  79  47  80  48 /   0   0   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  85  50  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  84  50  84  52 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  87  51  87  53 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  83  52  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  83  51  83  50 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  83  52  83  52 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  82  50  84  50 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  80  49  80  50 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  75  48  76  49 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

52






000
FXUS65 KABQ 240543 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1143 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A PATCH OF LIFR
CIGS/VSBYS DEVELOPING ALONG THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY IN THE VICINITY
OF KROW BY 09Z. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. BASED ON LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY...THERE MAY BE MORE
HIGH CLOUD COVER THAN INDICATED IN TAFS. IF MORE CIRRUS
EXISTS...CHANCES OF FOG DEVELOPING IN THE MORENO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...NEAR KAXX...IS EVEN LOWER. THUS...CONFIDENCE REMAINS
QUITE LOW THAT FOG WILL DEVELOP IN THIS AREA.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...919 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014...
.UPDATE...
WILL ADD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY FROM
FORT SUMNER ON SOUTH AND FOR MOST OF ROOSEVELT COUNTY FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BASED THIS ON LATEST HRRR MODEL
RUN SUGGESTING MVR AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA, ALSO
ONLY 4 DEGREE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT SPREAD CURRENTLY. ZONES OUT
SHORTLY. CHJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE NEARLY THE NEXT WEEK AND A HALF...EXCEPTING
ONLY THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WHEN SOME FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE RATHER LOW CHANCE AND LOW QPF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOME PORTION OF NORTH NEW MEXICO AS 2 OR 3 SHORT WAVES RACE EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITHIN A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH. THESE
WAVES WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SOME DEGREE...AHEM...OF TEMPERATURE
DROP. NEARER TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THEN PASSES EAST OF THE
STATE EXPECT SOME NEAR RECORD TO RECORD AFTERNOON WARMTH...MAINLY
EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WX PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 10 DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BUILDS INTO NM TONIGHT AND FRI...THEN PASSES TO EAST OF THE
STATE SAT AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTAINING SOME SHORT WAVES NEARS.
WITH MOISTURE GETTING EVER MORE SHALLOW EAST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
AS DRY INTRUSION TAKES ITS SWEET TIME SCOURING OUT SAID MOISTURE...
FOG SHOULD BE LESS OF A PROBLEM LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRI...COMPARED TO EARLY TODAY...THOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
VERY LOCALIZED FOG PATCHES SE PLAINS AND MORENO VALLEY. OF LITTLE
OVERALL SIGNIFICANT WILL BE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY
CROSS NM LATER TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST FRI MORN.

IMPOSING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE FRI WITH H5
PRESSURE HEIGHTS REACHING AT SUMMER LIKE LEVELS. RESULT WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE AFTN TEMPS AREAWIDE AND
AT LEAST A FEW RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS...NAMELY IN NE THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE. FOR THE MOST PART STAYED ON LOW SIDE OF...OR A
BIT BELOW...GUIDANCE AS IT IS LATE OCTOBER AND ALSO LOOKING AT NOT
MUCH OF A WARMING DOWNSLOPE FACTOR. SAT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT
PERFORMANCE TEMPERATURE WISE. MORE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
IN FROM THE W AND SW BETWEEN LATE SAT AND SUN.

AS WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SUN THE
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS AS WELL THUS...THE
STRONGER DOWNSLOPING BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE EAST...A BIT LESS SO WEST. SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH PASSAGE MON.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER THOUGH NOT PERFECT AGREEMENT ON
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE STATE.
CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE SOMEWHAT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS ON
RELATIVELY LOW QPF POPS ACROSS NORTH THIRD TO HALF OF NM SUN TO
MON...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS LOWER THAN WHAT THE FORMER TWO MODELS
IMPLY.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN TIMING AND FEATURE PLACEMENT
EMERGING FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. RIDGE CORE SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO
WILL PLAY AGAINST INBOUND WEST COAST TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA TO PACIFIC WATERS WELL OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. TROUGH WILL DIG TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SWING
ASHORE ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE CORE NUDGES EASTWARD TO THE HEART OF
TEXAS. TROUGH BASE WILL SHEAR EASTWARD RAPIDLY ACROSS NEW MEXICO
WITH TRAILING WAVE SWEEPING INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY MORNING
AND INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHEAR NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE TROUGH HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. MODELS DIVERGING FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF BACKING FLOW
ALOFT TO ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN TO SOUTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND AS
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE LAKE
TAHOE REGION OF NORTHWEST NEVADA...AND RIDGE CORE BUILDS OVER EAST
TEXAS. PATTERN LEAVES NEW MEXICO IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION...IN
CONTRAST...DIGS TROUGH RAPIDLY OUT OF OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND ACCELERATES THIS FEATURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING...LEAVING NEW MEXICO
UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND FINALLY UNDER A DOMINATING
RIDGE CORE BY THE WEEKEND. ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS A SMOOTHER AND
EASIER TRANSITION OUT OF MIDWEEK AGREEMENT...WITH GFS SOLUTION
REQUIRING SOME SHARPER AMPLIFICATIONS UP AND DOWNSTREAM IN ORDER TO
GET THE DESIRED EFFECT OVER NEW MEXICO. WILL TILT FORECAST THINKING
TOWARD ECMWF PLAN PENDING BETTER FORECAST AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

OVERNIGHT...STEADY TEMPERATURE REGIME OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A RUIDOSO TO TUCUMCARI
LINE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

FOR FRIDAY...RIDGE CORE REMAINING SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO...AS DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. WARMING TREND
CONTINUING...WITH 10 TO 20 DEGREE WARM EXCURSIONS ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL RUN IN THE UPPER
TEENS PCT OVER THE NORTH...AND IN THE 20S PCT OVER THE
SOUTH....REFLECTIVE OF A DRYING IN CONCERT WITH THE WARMING.
VENTILATION DEGRADED IN THE WEST...AND ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER IN THE
EAST. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...WITH EXCELLENT
RECOVERIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS UNDER FOGGY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...STEADY TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH HUMIDITIES REMAINING IN THE TEENS
NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. VENTILATION IMPROVING TO GOOD TO VERY GOOD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASES IN TRANSPORT WINDS AS
RIDGE CORE SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE HEART OF TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
WIND SPEEDS PICK UP OVER NEW MEXICO BEHIND THE RIDGE CORE. GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY...APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SHEAR ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH
DRAMATIC UP TICK IN WIND SPEEDS ALOFT...AND QUICK TURBULENCE PICKING
UP IN THE FLOW. COOLER PUSH INTO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL WALK THESE
TEMPERATURES BACK FROM RECORD VALUES...WITH LESS CHANGE IN ANOTHER
WARM DAY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH. PATTERN WILL BRING BOOSTS TO
HUMIDITIES WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BOOST...WITH MOST SPOTS
BOTTOMING IN THE 20S AND UPPER TEENS PCT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM THE
ARIZONA LINE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VENTILATION QUALITY WILL ENJOY ANOTHER BOOST AND
END UP IN THE EXCELLENT CATEGORY WITH STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS AND
CONTINUED ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS. TURBULENCE IN FLOW OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH MOISTURE MAY HELP SUPPORT SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...AND SOME SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY
NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST...WITH GOOD RECOVERY OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING TO THE EAST TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WORKS THROUGH
RAPIDLY UNDER THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
COOLING TREND TO START THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND
RECOVERING SLOWLY BACK TOWARD NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITIES
REMAINING IN THE 20S AND TEENS PCT...WITH DRYING TRENDS SHIFTING OUT
OF  THE EAST AND INTO THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUSTY FLOW OVERHEAD
WILL SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS DROPPED OFF
RAPIDLY ON TUESDAY AS COOL PUSH INVADES EASTERN NEW MEXICO FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AS THE DYNAMIC ACTION ALOFT BARRELS INTO
TEXAS. LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTIONS SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 240319 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
919 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
WILL ADD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY FROM
FORT SUMNER ON SOUTH AND FOR MOST OF ROOSEVELT COUNTY FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BASED THIS ON LATEST HRRR MODEL
RUN SUGGESTING MVR AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA, ALSO
ONLY 4 DEGREE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT SPREAD CURRENTLY. ZONES OUT
SHORTLY. CHJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...538 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY...INCLUDING KROW...BETWEEN 09Z
AND 15Z TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE YET TO SCOUR OUT IN THIS REGION...AND
CURRENT HI RES MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...
SIMILARLY TO LAST NIGHT. LOCALIZED FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE
MORENO VALLEY...NEAR KAXX...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH IN THIS
LOCATION.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE NEARLY THE NEXT WEEK AND A HALF...EXCEPTING
ONLY THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WHEN SOME FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE RATHER LOW CHANCE AND LOW QPF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOME PORTION OF NORTH NEW MEXICO AS 2 OR 3 SHORT WAVES RACE EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITHIN A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH. THESE
WAVES WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SOME DEGREE...AHEM...OF TEMPERATURE
DROP. NEARER TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THEN PASSES EAST OF THE
STATE EXPECT SOME NEAR RECORD TO RECORD AFTERNOON WARMTH...MAINLY
EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WX PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 10 DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BUILDS INTO NM TONIGHT AND FRI...THEN PASSES TO EAST OF THE
STATE SAT AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTAINING SOME SHORT WAVES NEARS.
WITH MOISTURE GETTING EVER MORE SHALLOW EAST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
AS DRY INTRUSION TAKES ITS SWEET TIME SCOURING OUT SAID MOISTURE...
FOG SHOULD BE LESS OF A PROBLEM LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRI...COMPARED TO EARLY TODAY...THOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
VERY LOCALIZED FOG PATCHES SE PLAINS AND MORENO VALLEY. OF LITTLE
OVERALL SIGNIFICANT WILL BE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY
CROSS NM LATER TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST FRI MORN.

IMPOSING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE FRI WITH H5
PRESSURE HEIGHTS REACHING AT SUMMER LIKE LEVELS. RESULT WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE AFTN TEMPS AREAWIDE AND
AT LEAST A FEW RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS...NAMELY IN NE THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE. FOR THE MOST PART STAYED ON LOW SIDE OF...OR A
BIT BELOW...GUIDANCE AS IT IS LATE OCTOBER AND ALSO LOOKING AT NOT
MUCH OF A WARMING DOWNSLOPE FACTOR. SAT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT
PERFORMANCE TEMPERATURE WISE. MORE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
IN FROM THE W AND SW BETWEEN LATE SAT AND SUN.

AS WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SUN THE
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS AS WELL THUS...THE
STRONGER DOWNSLOPING BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE EAST...A BIT LESS SO WEST. SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH PASSAGE MON.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER THOUGH NOT PERFECT AGREEMENT ON
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE STATE.
CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE SOMEWHAT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS ON
RELATIVELY LOW QPF POPS ACROSS NORTH THIRD TO HALF OF NM SUN TO
MON...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS LOWER THAN WHAT THE FORMER TWO MODELS
IMPLY.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN TIMING AND FEATURE PLACEMENT
EMERGING FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. RIDGE CORE SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO
WILL PLAY AGAINST INBOUND WEST COAST TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA TO PACIFIC WATERS WELL OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. TROUGH WILL DIG TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SWING
ASHORE ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE CORE NUDGES EASTWARD TO THE HEART OF
TEXAS. TROUGH BASE WILL SHEAR EASTWARD RAPIDLY ACROSS NEW MEXICO
WITH TRAILING WAVE SWEEPING INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY MORNING
AND INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHEAR NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE TROUGH HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. MODELS DIVERGING FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF BACKING FLOW
ALOFT TO ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN TO SOUTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND AS
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE LAKE
TAHOE REGION OF NORTHWEST NEVADA...AND RIDGE CORE BUILDS OVER EAST
TEXAS. PATTERN LEAVES NEW MEXICO IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION...IN
CONTRAST...DIGS TROUGH RAPIDLY OUT OF OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND ACCELERATES THIS FEATURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING...LEAVING NEW MEXICO
UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND FINALLY UNDER A DOMINATING
RIDGE CORE BY THE WEEKEND. ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS A SMOOTHER AND
EASIER TRANSITION OUT OF MIDWEEK AGREEMENT...WITH GFS SOLUTION
REQUIRING SOME SHARPER AMPLIFICATIONS UP AND DOWNSTREAM IN ORDER TO
GET THE DESIRED EFFECT OVER NEW MEXICO. WILL TILT FORECAST THINKING
TOWARD ECMWF PLAN PENDING BETTER FORECAST AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

OVERNIGHT...STEADY TEMPERATURE REGIME OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A RUIDOSO TO TUCUMCARI
LINE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

FOR FRIDAY...RIDGE CORE REMAINING SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO...AS DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. WARMING TREND
CONTINUING...WITH 10 TO 20 DEGREE WARM EXCURSIONS ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL RUN IN THE UPPER
TEENS PCT OVER THE NORTH...AND IN THE 20S PCT OVER THE
SOUTH....REFLECTIVE OF A DRYING IN CONCERT WITH THE WARMING.
VENTILATION DEGRADED IN THE WEST...AND ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER IN THE
EAST. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...WITH EXCELLENT
RECOVERIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS UNDER FOGGY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...STEADY TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH HUMIDITIES REMAINING IN THE TEENS
NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. VENTILATION IMPROVING TO GOOD TO VERY GOOD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASES IN TRANSPORT WINDS AS
RIDGE CORE SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE HEART OF TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
WIND SPEEDS PICK UP OVER NEW MEXICO BEHIND THE RIDGE CORE. GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY...APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SHEAR ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH
DRAMATIC UP TICK IN WIND SPEEDS ALOFT...AND QUICK TURBULENCE PICKING
UP IN THE FLOW. COOLER PUSH INTO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL WALK THESE
TEMPERATURES BACK FROM RECORD VALUES...WITH LESS CHANGE IN ANOTHER
WARM DAY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH. PATTERN WILL BRING BOOSTS TO
HUMIDITIES WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BOOST...WITH MOST SPOTS
BOTTOMING IN THE 20S AND UPPER TEENS PCT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM THE
ARIZONA LINE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VENTILATION QUALITY WILL ENJOY ANOTHER BOOST AND
END UP IN THE EXCELLENT CATEGORY WITH STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS AND
CONTINUED ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS. TURBULENCE IN FLOW OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH MOISTURE MAY HELP SUPPORT SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...AND SOME SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY
NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST...WITH GOOD RECOVERY OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING TO THE EAST TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WORKS THROUGH
RAPIDLY UNDER THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
COOLING TREND TO START THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND
RECOVERING SLOWLY BACK TOWARD NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITIES
REMAINING IN THE 20S AND TEENS PCT...WITH DRYING TRENDS SHIFTING OUT
OF  THE EAST AND INTO THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUSTY FLOW OVERHEAD
WILL SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS DROPPED OFF
RAPIDLY ON TUESDAY AS COOL PUSH INVADES EASTERN NEW MEXICO FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AS THE DYNAMIC ACTION ALOFT BARRELS INTO
TEXAS. LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTIONS SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40






000
FXUS65 KABQ 240319 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
919 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014

.UPDATE...
WILL ADD LOW CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG FOR THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY FROM
FORT SUMNER ON SOUTH AND FOR MOST OF ROOSEVELT COUNTY FOR LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. BASED THIS ON LATEST HRRR MODEL
RUN SUGGESTING MVR AND LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA, ALSO
ONLY 4 DEGREE TEMPERATURE...DEWPOINT SPREAD CURRENTLY. ZONES OUT
SHORTLY. CHJ

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...538 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CIGS AND VSBY WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY...INCLUDING KROW...BETWEEN 09Z
AND 15Z TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS HAVE YET TO SCOUR OUT IN THIS REGION...AND
CURRENT HI RES MODELS SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR LIFR CIGS/VSBYS...
SIMILARLY TO LAST NIGHT. LOCALIZED FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN THE
MORENO VALLEY...NEAR KAXX...BUT CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH IN THIS
LOCATION.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...310 PM MDT THU OCT 23 2014...
.SYNOPSIS...
DRY PATTERN THROUGH THE NEARLY THE NEXT WEEK AND A HALF...EXCEPTING
ONLY THE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY PERIOD WHEN SOME FORECAST
MODELS INDICATE RATHER LOW CHANCE AND LOW QPF PRECIPITATION ACROSS
SOME PORTION OF NORTH NEW MEXICO AS 2 OR 3 SHORT WAVES RACE EAST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WITHIN A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH. THESE
WAVES WILL ALSO RESULT IN SOME BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
MAINLY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND SOME DEGREE...AHEM...OF TEMPERATURE
DROP. NEARER TERM AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES THEN PASSES EAST OF THE
STATE EXPECT SOME NEAR RECORD TO RECORD AFTERNOON WARMTH...MAINLY
EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRANQUIL WX PATTERN FOR MUCH OF THE NEXT 10 DAYS AS HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT BUILDS INTO NM TONIGHT AND FRI...THEN PASSES TO EAST OF THE
STATE SAT AS A LONG WAVE TROUGH CONTAINING SOME SHORT WAVES NEARS.
WITH MOISTURE GETTING EVER MORE SHALLOW EAST OF CENTRAL MTN CHAIN
AS DRY INTRUSION TAKES ITS SWEET TIME SCOURING OUT SAID MOISTURE...
FOG SHOULD BE LESS OF A PROBLEM LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRI...COMPARED TO EARLY TODAY...THOUGH WOULD NOT RULE OUT SOME
VERY LOCALIZED FOG PATCHES SE PLAINS AND MORENO VALLEY. OF LITTLE
OVERALL SIGNIFICANT WILL BE A BIT OF HIGH CLOUDINESS WHICH MAY
CROSS NM LATER TONIGHT INTO AT LEAST FRI MORN.

IMPOSING UPPER RIDGE WILL BE DIRECTLY OVER THE STATE FRI WITH H5
PRESSURE HEIGHTS REACHING AT SUMMER LIKE LEVELS. RESULT WILL BE
GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS WITH ABOVE AVERAGE AFTN TEMPS AREAWIDE AND
AT LEAST A FEW RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS...NAMELY IN NE THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE. FOR THE MOST PART STAYED ON LOW SIDE OF...OR A
BIT BELOW...GUIDANCE AS IT IS LATE OCTOBER AND ALSO LOOKING AT NOT
MUCH OF A WARMING DOWNSLOPE FACTOR. SAT SHOULD BE A NEAR REPEAT
PERFORMANCE TEMPERATURE WISE. MORE HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO FILTER
IN FROM THE W AND SW BETWEEN LATE SAT AND SUN.

AS WINDS ALOFT STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH SUN THE
LEE SIDE SURFACE TROUGH DEEPENS AND STRENGTHENS AS WELL THUS...THE
STRONGER DOWNSLOPING BREEZES WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE
NORMAL IN THE EAST...A BIT LESS SO WEST. SOME FURTHER STRENGTHENING
GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT WILL GIVE WAY TO A TROUGH PASSAGE MON.
FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BETTER THOUGH NOT PERFECT AGREEMENT ON
STRENGTH AND TIMING OF UPPER TROUGH AS IT CROSSES THE STATE.
CANADIAN AND ECMWF ARE SOMEWHAT MORE BULLISH THAN THE GFS ON
RELATIVELY LOW QPF POPS ACROSS NORTH THIRD TO HALF OF NM SUN TO
MON...BUT HAVE KEPT POPS LOWER THAN WHAT THE FORMER TWO MODELS
IMPLY.

43

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER...NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.

MODELS...IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON NEXT
WEEK...WITH SOME DIFFERENCES IN PATTERN TIMING AND FEATURE PLACEMENT
EMERGING FROM WEDNESDAY ONWARD. RIDGE CORE SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO
WILL PLAY AGAINST INBOUND WEST COAST TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE
EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA TO PACIFIC WATERS WELL OFF THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA COAST. TROUGH WILL DIG TO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND SWING
ASHORE ON SATURDAY AS RIDGE CORE NUDGES EASTWARD TO THE HEART OF
TEXAS. TROUGH BASE WILL SHEAR EASTWARD RAPIDLY ACROSS NEW MEXICO
WITH TRAILING WAVE SWEEPING INTO WESTERN NEW MEXICO MONDAY MORNING
AND INTO TEXAS BY MONDAY NIGHT. FLOW WILL GRADUALLY SHEAR NORTHWEST
BEHIND THE TROUGH HEADING INTO MIDWEEK. MODELS DIVERGING FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD...WITH EUROPEAN COLLEAGUES AT ECMWF BACKING FLOW
ALOFT TO ZONAL ON WEDNESDAY AND THEN TO SOUTHWEST BY THE WEEKEND AS
NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN CALIFORNIA INTO THE LAKE
TAHOE REGION OF NORTHWEST NEVADA...AND RIDGE CORE BUILDS OVER EAST
TEXAS. PATTERN LEAVES NEW MEXICO IN STRENGTHENING SOUTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT FROM MIDWEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. DOMESTIC GFS SOLUTION...IN
CONTRAST...DIGS TROUGH RAPIDLY OUT OF OTHERWISE ZONAL FLOW FROM THE
CENTRAL PLAINS STATES TO THE TEXAS BIG BEND COUNTRY ON
WEDNESDAY...AND ACCELERATES THIS FEATURE EASTWARD ACROSS THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY BY FRIDAY MORNING...LEAVING NEW MEXICO
UNDER WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...AND FINALLY UNDER A DOMINATING
RIDGE CORE BY THE WEEKEND. ECMWF SOLUTION SEEMS A SMOOTHER AND
EASIER TRANSITION OUT OF MIDWEEK AGREEMENT...WITH GFS SOLUTION
REQUIRING SOME SHARPER AMPLIFICATIONS UP AND DOWNSTREAM IN ORDER TO
GET THE DESIRED EFFECT OVER NEW MEXICO. WILL TILT FORECAST THINKING
TOWARD ECMWF PLAN PENDING BETTER FORECAST AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST
HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.

OVERNIGHT...STEADY TEMPERATURE REGIME OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS.
FOG WILL DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTH AND EAST OF A RUIDOSO TO TUCUMCARI
LINE OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS.

FOR FRIDAY...RIDGE CORE REMAINING SQUARELY OVER NEW MEXICO...AS DOME
OF HIGH PRESSURE SETS UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS. WARMING TREND
CONTINUING...WITH 10 TO 20 DEGREE WARM EXCURSIONS ABOVE NORMAL OVER
THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES WILL RUN IN THE UPPER
TEENS PCT OVER THE NORTH...AND IN THE 20S PCT OVER THE
SOUTH....REFLECTIVE OF A DRYING IN CONCERT WITH THE WARMING.
VENTILATION DEGRADED IN THE WEST...AND ONLY MARGINALLY BETTER IN THE
EAST. FAIR TO GOOD HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVERNIGHT...WITH EXCELLENT
RECOVERIES OVER THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS UNDER FOGGY CONDITIONS FRIDAY
NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...STEADY TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 20 DEGREES WARMER
THAN NORMAL FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH HUMIDITIES REMAINING IN THE TEENS
NORTH AND 20S SOUTH. VENTILATION IMPROVING TO GOOD TO VERY GOOD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE DAY WITH SOME INCREASES IN TRANSPORT WINDS AS
RIDGE CORE SLIDES EASTWARD INTO THE HEART OF TEXAS AND SOUTHWEST
WIND SPEEDS PICK UP OVER NEW MEXICO BEHIND THE RIDGE CORE. GENERALLY
LIGHT SOUTHWEST WINDS THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

FOR SUNDAY...APPROACHING TROUGH WILL SHEAR ACROSS NEW MEXICO WITH
DRAMATIC UP TICK IN WIND SPEEDS ALOFT...AND QUICK TURBULENCE PICKING
UP IN THE FLOW. COOLER PUSH INTO THE NORTH AND WEST WILL WALK THESE
TEMPERATURES BACK FROM RECORD VALUES...WITH LESS CHANGE IN ANOTHER
WARM DAY OVER THE EAST AND SOUTH. PATTERN WILL BRING BOOSTS TO
HUMIDITIES WITH ASSOCIATED MOISTURE BOOST...WITH MOST SPOTS
BOTTOMING IN THE 20S AND UPPER TEENS PCT SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GUSTY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM THE
ARIZONA LINE TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AND ACROSS THE SANGRE DE
CRISTO AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND NORTHEAST HIGHLANDS THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. VENTILATION QUALITY WILL ENJOY ANOTHER BOOST AND
END UP IN THE EXCELLENT CATEGORY WITH STRONG TRANSPORT WINDS AND
CONTINUED ELEVATED MIXING HEIGHTS. TURBULENCE IN FLOW OVERHEAD
SUNDAY NIGHT COMBINED WITH MOISTURE MAY HELP SUPPORT SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN OVERNIGHT SHOWERS...AND SOME SNOW OVER THE HIGH COUNTRY
NEAR THE COLORADO LINE. EXCELLENT HUMIDITY RECOVERIES OVER THE NORTH
AND WEST...WITH GOOD RECOVERY OVER THE SOUTH AND EAST.

OUTLOOK...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...SPOTTY SHOWER COVERAGE OVER THE
NORTHERN HIGH COUNTRY MONDAY NIGHT SHIFTING TO THE EAST TUESDAY
BEFORE ENDING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AS PAIR OF SHORTWAVES WORKS THROUGH
RAPIDLY UNDER THE BASE OF A BROAD TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN U.S.
COOLING TREND TO START THE WEEK WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID
WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING BELOW NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND
RECOVERING SLOWLY BACK TOWARD NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY. HUMIDITIES
REMAINING IN THE 20S AND TEENS PCT...WITH DRYING TRENDS SHIFTING OUT
OF  THE EAST AND INTO THE WEST THROUGH MIDWEEK. GUSTY FLOW OVERHEAD
WILL SUPPORT GUSTY SURFACE WINDS OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS OF THE
CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN MONDAY AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS DROPPED OFF
RAPIDLY ON TUESDAY AS COOL PUSH INVADES EASTERN NEW MEXICO FROM THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS STATES AS THE DYNAMIC ACTION ALOFT BARRELS INTO
TEXAS. LOW LEVEL WIND DIRECTIONS SWINGING AROUND TO THE NORTHWEST ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH SOME AFTERNOON BREEZES OVER THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

SHY

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

40






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