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000
FXUS65 KABQ 290547 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1147 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FINISH PUSHING THROUGH W
AREAS TONIGHT INCREASING HUMIDITIES THERE FOR SATURDAY. TS WILL
FAVOR THE CONTDVD AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY. MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A N TO S MOVEMENT OF STORMS ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MATCHES WHAT GENERALLY OCCURRED TODAY.
AIRPORTS NEAR MTS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY TS/SHRA
SATURDAY AFTN AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY KSAF.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...906 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF STORMS MERGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PECOS RIVER
VALLEY IS PRODUCING INTENSE LIGHTNING AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.
UPDATED POPS TO LIKELY IN THIS AREA FOR THE EVENING. FARTHER TO
THE WEST...GAP WIND DOMINATED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CONT DIVIDE
HAS ALSO POPPED SOME -TSRA WEST OF ABQ. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING CELLS THRU THE
NIGHT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 290547 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1147 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FINISH PUSHING THROUGH W
AREAS TONIGHT INCREASING HUMIDITIES THERE FOR SATURDAY. TS WILL
FAVOR THE CONTDVD AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY. MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A N TO S MOVEMENT OF STORMS ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MATCHES WHAT GENERALLY OCCURRED TODAY.
AIRPORTS NEAR MTS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY TS/SHRA
SATURDAY AFTN AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY KSAF.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...906 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF STORMS MERGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PECOS RIVER
VALLEY IS PRODUCING INTENSE LIGHTNING AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.
UPDATED POPS TO LIKELY IN THIS AREA FOR THE EVENING. FARTHER TO
THE WEST...GAP WIND DOMINATED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CONT DIVIDE
HAS ALSO POPPED SOME -TSRA WEST OF ABQ. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING CELLS THRU THE
NIGHT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 290547 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1147 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FINISH PUSHING THROUGH W
AREAS TONIGHT INCREASING HUMIDITIES THERE FOR SATURDAY. TS WILL
FAVOR THE CONTDVD AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY. MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A N TO S MOVEMENT OF STORMS ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MATCHES WHAT GENERALLY OCCURRED TODAY.
AIRPORTS NEAR MTS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY TS/SHRA
SATURDAY AFTN AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY KSAF.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...906 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF STORMS MERGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PECOS RIVER
VALLEY IS PRODUCING INTENSE LIGHTNING AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.
UPDATED POPS TO LIKELY IN THIS AREA FOR THE EVENING. FARTHER TO
THE WEST...GAP WIND DOMINATED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CONT DIVIDE
HAS ALSO POPPED SOME -TSRA WEST OF ABQ. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING CELLS THRU THE
NIGHT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 290547 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1147 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS. A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FINISH PUSHING THROUGH W
AREAS TONIGHT INCREASING HUMIDITIES THERE FOR SATURDAY. TS WILL
FAVOR THE CONTDVD AND CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY. MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT ON A N TO S MOVEMENT OF STORMS ON
SATURDAY...WHICH MATCHES WHAT GENERALLY OCCURRED TODAY.
AIRPORTS NEAR MTS HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY TS/SHRA
SATURDAY AFTN AND EVENING...ESPECIALLY KSAF.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...906 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF STORMS MERGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PECOS RIVER
VALLEY IS PRODUCING INTENSE LIGHTNING AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.
UPDATED POPS TO LIKELY IN THIS AREA FOR THE EVENING. FARTHER TO
THE WEST...GAP WIND DOMINATED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CONT DIVIDE
HAS ALSO POPPED SOME -TSRA WEST OF ABQ. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING CELLS THRU THE
NIGHT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 290306 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
906 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF STORMS MERGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PECOS RIVER
VALLEY IS PRODUCING INTENSE LIGHTNING AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.
UPDATED POPS TO LIKELY IN THIS AREA FOR THE EVENING. FARTHER TO
THE WEST...GAP WIND DOMINATED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CONT DIVIDE
HAS ALSO POPPED SOME -TSRA WEST OF ABQ. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING CELLS THRU THE
NIGHT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...613 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCT TS/SHRA WILL FAVOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING...THEN A FEW ISOLD CELLS MAY LINGER AFT MIDNIGHT MAINLY
S OF I-40. LOOK FOR SPOTTIER CELLS WITH SMALLER WETTING
FOOTPRINTS N OF HWY 60 FROM THE CONTDVD E TO THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...WHERE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY MICROBURSTS ARE EXPECTED.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...THAT WILL PUSH SWWD THROUGH S CENTRAL
AREAS THIS EVENING...WILL PUSH THROUGH W AREAS TONIGHT INCREASING
HUMIDITIES THERE FOR SATURDAY. TS WILL FAVOR THE CONTDVD AND
CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH FOR SATURDAY MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE DIRECTION OF STORM MOTION. AIRPORTS NEAR
MTS HAVE A CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY TS/SHRA SATURDAY AFTN AND
EVENING.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 290306 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
906 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF STORMS MERGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PECOS RIVER
VALLEY IS PRODUCING INTENSE LIGHTNING AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.
UPDATED POPS TO LIKELY IN THIS AREA FOR THE EVENING. FARTHER TO
THE WEST...GAP WIND DOMINATED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CONT DIVIDE
HAS ALSO POPPED SOME -TSRA WEST OF ABQ. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING CELLS THRU THE
NIGHT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...613 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCT TS/SHRA WILL FAVOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING...THEN A FEW ISOLD CELLS MAY LINGER AFT MIDNIGHT MAINLY
S OF I-40. LOOK FOR SPOTTIER CELLS WITH SMALLER WETTING
FOOTPRINTS N OF HWY 60 FROM THE CONTDVD E TO THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...WHERE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY MICROBURSTS ARE EXPECTED.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...THAT WILL PUSH SWWD THROUGH S CENTRAL
AREAS THIS EVENING...WILL PUSH THROUGH W AREAS TONIGHT INCREASING
HUMIDITIES THERE FOR SATURDAY. TS WILL FAVOR THE CONTDVD AND
CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH FOR SATURDAY MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE DIRECTION OF STORM MOTION. AIRPORTS NEAR
MTS HAVE A CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY TS/SHRA SATURDAY AFTN AND
EVENING.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 290306 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
906 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF STORMS MERGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PECOS RIVER
VALLEY IS PRODUCING INTENSE LIGHTNING AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.
UPDATED POPS TO LIKELY IN THIS AREA FOR THE EVENING. FARTHER TO
THE WEST...GAP WIND DOMINATED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CONT DIVIDE
HAS ALSO POPPED SOME -TSRA WEST OF ABQ. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING CELLS THRU THE
NIGHT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...613 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCT TS/SHRA WILL FAVOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING...THEN A FEW ISOLD CELLS MAY LINGER AFT MIDNIGHT MAINLY
S OF I-40. LOOK FOR SPOTTIER CELLS WITH SMALLER WETTING
FOOTPRINTS N OF HWY 60 FROM THE CONTDVD E TO THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...WHERE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY MICROBURSTS ARE EXPECTED.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...THAT WILL PUSH SWWD THROUGH S CENTRAL
AREAS THIS EVENING...WILL PUSH THROUGH W AREAS TONIGHT INCREASING
HUMIDITIES THERE FOR SATURDAY. TS WILL FAVOR THE CONTDVD AND
CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH FOR SATURDAY MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE DIRECTION OF STORM MOTION. AIRPORTS NEAR
MTS HAVE A CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY TS/SHRA SATURDAY AFTN AND
EVENING.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 290306 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
906 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.UPDATE...
LARGE AREA OF STORMS MERGING SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE PECOS RIVER
VALLEY IS PRODUCING INTENSE LIGHTNING AND AREAS OF HEAVY RAIN.
UPDATED POPS TO LIKELY IN THIS AREA FOR THE EVENING. FARTHER TO
THE WEST...GAP WIND DOMINATED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE CONT DIVIDE
HAS ALSO POPPED SOME -TSRA WEST OF ABQ. EXPECT MOST ACTIVITY TO
TAPER OFF AROUND MIDNIGHT WITH A FEW LINGERING CELLS THRU THE
NIGHT.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...613 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCT TS/SHRA WILL FAVOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING...THEN A FEW ISOLD CELLS MAY LINGER AFT MIDNIGHT MAINLY
S OF I-40. LOOK FOR SPOTTIER CELLS WITH SMALLER WETTING
FOOTPRINTS N OF HWY 60 FROM THE CONTDVD E TO THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...WHERE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY MICROBURSTS ARE EXPECTED.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...THAT WILL PUSH SWWD THROUGH S CENTRAL
AREAS THIS EVENING...WILL PUSH THROUGH W AREAS TONIGHT INCREASING
HUMIDITIES THERE FOR SATURDAY. TS WILL FAVOR THE CONTDVD AND
CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH FOR SATURDAY MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE DIRECTION OF STORM MOTION. AIRPORTS NEAR
MTS HAVE A CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY TS/SHRA SATURDAY AFTN AND
EVENING.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 290013 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
613 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCT TS/SHRA WILL FAVOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING...THEN A FEW ISOLD CELLS MAY LINGER AFT MIDNIGHT MAINLY
S OF I-40. LOOK FOR SPOTTIER CELLS WITH SMALLER WETTING
FOOTPRINTS N OF HWY 60 FROM THE CONTDVD E TO THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...WHERE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY MICROBURSTS ARE EXPECTED.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...THAT WILL PUSH SWWD THROUGH S CENTRAL
AREAS THIS EVENING...WILL PUSH THROUGH W AREAS TONIGHT INCREASING
HUMIDITIES THERE FOR SATURDAY. TS WILL FAVOR THE CONTDVD AND
CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH FOR SATURDAY MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE DIRECTION OF STORM MOTION. AIRPORTS NEAR
MTS HAVE A CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY TS/SHRA SATURDAY AFTN AND
EVENING.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 290013 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
613 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCT TS/SHRA WILL FAVOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING...THEN A FEW ISOLD CELLS MAY LINGER AFT MIDNIGHT MAINLY
S OF I-40. LOOK FOR SPOTTIER CELLS WITH SMALLER WETTING
FOOTPRINTS N OF HWY 60 FROM THE CONTDVD E TO THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...WHERE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY MICROBURSTS ARE EXPECTED.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...THAT WILL PUSH SWWD THROUGH S CENTRAL
AREAS THIS EVENING...WILL PUSH THROUGH W AREAS TONIGHT INCREASING
HUMIDITIES THERE FOR SATURDAY. TS WILL FAVOR THE CONTDVD AND
CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH FOR SATURDAY MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE DIRECTION OF STORM MOTION. AIRPORTS NEAR
MTS HAVE A CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY TS/SHRA SATURDAY AFTN AND
EVENING.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 290013 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
613 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCT TS/SHRA WILL FAVOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING...THEN A FEW ISOLD CELLS MAY LINGER AFT MIDNIGHT MAINLY
S OF I-40. LOOK FOR SPOTTIER CELLS WITH SMALLER WETTING
FOOTPRINTS N OF HWY 60 FROM THE CONTDVD E TO THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...WHERE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY MICROBURSTS ARE EXPECTED.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...THAT WILL PUSH SWWD THROUGH S CENTRAL
AREAS THIS EVENING...WILL PUSH THROUGH W AREAS TONIGHT INCREASING
HUMIDITIES THERE FOR SATURDAY. TS WILL FAVOR THE CONTDVD AND
CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH FOR SATURDAY MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE DIRECTION OF STORM MOTION. AIRPORTS NEAR
MTS HAVE A CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY TS/SHRA SATURDAY AFTN AND
EVENING.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 290013 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
613 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCT TS/SHRA WILL FAVOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING...THEN A FEW ISOLD CELLS MAY LINGER AFT MIDNIGHT MAINLY
S OF I-40. LOOK FOR SPOTTIER CELLS WITH SMALLER WETTING
FOOTPRINTS N OF HWY 60 FROM THE CONTDVD E TO THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...WHERE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY MICROBURSTS ARE EXPECTED.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...THAT WILL PUSH SWWD THROUGH S CENTRAL
AREAS THIS EVENING...WILL PUSH THROUGH W AREAS TONIGHT INCREASING
HUMIDITIES THERE FOR SATURDAY. TS WILL FAVOR THE CONTDVD AND
CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH FOR SATURDAY MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE DIRECTION OF STORM MOTION. AIRPORTS NEAR
MTS HAVE A CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY TS/SHRA SATURDAY AFTN AND
EVENING.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 290013 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
613 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCT TS/SHRA WILL FAVOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING...THEN A FEW ISOLD CELLS MAY LINGER AFT MIDNIGHT MAINLY
S OF I-40. LOOK FOR SPOTTIER CELLS WITH SMALLER WETTING
FOOTPRINTS N OF HWY 60 FROM THE CONTDVD E TO THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...WHERE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY MICROBURSTS ARE EXPECTED.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...THAT WILL PUSH SWWD THROUGH S CENTRAL
AREAS THIS EVENING...WILL PUSH THROUGH W AREAS TONIGHT INCREASING
HUMIDITIES THERE FOR SATURDAY. TS WILL FAVOR THE CONTDVD AND
CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH FOR SATURDAY MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE DIRECTION OF STORM MOTION. AIRPORTS NEAR
MTS HAVE A CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY TS/SHRA SATURDAY AFTN AND
EVENING.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 290013 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
613 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
SCT TS/SHRA WILL FAVOR EASTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS
EVENING...THEN A FEW ISOLD CELLS MAY LINGER AFT MIDNIGHT MAINLY
S OF I-40. LOOK FOR SPOTTIER CELLS WITH SMALLER WETTING
FOOTPRINTS N OF HWY 60 FROM THE CONTDVD E TO THE CENTRAL MT
CHAIN...WHERE A MIXTURE OF WET AND DRY MICROBURSTS ARE EXPECTED.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT...THAT WILL PUSH SWWD THROUGH S CENTRAL
AREAS THIS EVENING...WILL PUSH THROUGH W AREAS TONIGHT INCREASING
HUMIDITIES THERE FOR SATURDAY. TS WILL FAVOR THE CONTDVD AND
CENTRAL MT CHAIN SATURDAY. DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS ON
PLACEMENT OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH FOR SATURDAY MAKE IT
DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN THE DIRECTION OF STORM MOTION. AIRPORTS NEAR
MTS HAVE A CHANCE OF GETTING HIT BY TS/SHRA SATURDAY AFTN AND
EVENING.

44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 282106
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVING SWD THROUGH ERN PLAINS CURRENTLY.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BACK UP AGAINST THE E LOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN THRU LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SEND IT WWD THROUGH TIJERAS CANYON AND GLORIETA PASS.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTN...AND
ALONG THE FRONT OVER SE PLAINS INCLUDING KROW. ISOLD -TSRAS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
LOCALLY HVY RAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
PERHAPS KSAF AFTER APPROX 23Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 04Z.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  58  90  61  88 /   5   5  10  30
DULCE...........................  47  82  49  81 /  20  30  20  40
CUBA............................  52  83  53  82 /  40  40  30  30
GALLUP..........................  52  86  54  84 /  10  20  30  30
EL MORRO........................  51  82  52  81 /  10  20  30  40
GRANTS..........................  52  83  53  82 /  10  20  30  30
QUEMADO.........................  55  82  57  81 /  20  20  30  40
GLENWOOD........................  57  85  56  83 /  20  40  30  50
CHAMA...........................  46  76  48  77 /  40  50  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  80  58  82 /  50  30  50  50
PECOS...........................  57  78  56  81 /  50  50  30  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  78  51  79 /  30  40  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  43  68  42  70 /  50  50  30  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  48  69  48  73 /  50  50  40  40
TAOS............................  47  81  49  82 /  20  10  20  20
MORA............................  52  74  52  79 /  50  50  30  50
ESPANOLA........................  55  84  54  85 /  30  20  20  30
SANTA FE........................  58  82  58  83 /  40  40  30  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  56  84  56  85 /  30  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  86  63  87 /  40  50  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  87  65  88 /  30  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  89  62  90 /  30  10  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  88  64  89 /  30  10  20  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  61  89  61  90 /  20  10  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  63  88  64  88 /  30  10  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  64  90  63  90 /  20  10  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  81  58  82 /  50  50  30  30
TIJERAS.........................  56  82  57  84 /  50  50  30  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  83  54  84 /  30  20  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  80  55  82 /  30  20  10  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  82  57  83 /  50  20  20  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  85  61  86 /  40  30  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  58  77  58  80 /  50  30  20  30
CAPULIN.........................  54  83  56  85 /  20  10  10  10
RATON...........................  52  85  52  87 /  20  10  10  20
SPRINGER........................  53  86  53  88 /  30  10  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  80  52  84 /  30  20  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  60  88  60  92 /  10   5   5   5
ROY.............................  58  85  57  88 /  50   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  63  90  62  93 /  40   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  62  89  61  92 /  30   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  63  92  62  95 /  20   5   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  64  88  62  91 /  30  10   5   5
PORTALES........................  65  89  63  92 /  50  10   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  90  63  92 /  50  10   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  67  93  65  95 /  40  10   5   5
PICACHO.........................  62  86  60  89 /  30  20   5  10
ELK.............................  61  83  59  84 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11



000
FXUS65 KABQ 282106
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVING SWD THROUGH ERN PLAINS CURRENTLY.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BACK UP AGAINST THE E LOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN THRU LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SEND IT WWD THROUGH TIJERAS CANYON AND GLORIETA PASS.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTN...AND
ALONG THE FRONT OVER SE PLAINS INCLUDING KROW. ISOLD -TSRAS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
LOCALLY HVY RAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
PERHAPS KSAF AFTER APPROX 23Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 04Z.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  58  90  61  88 /   5   5  10  30
DULCE...........................  47  82  49  81 /  20  30  20  40
CUBA............................  52  83  53  82 /  40  40  30  30
GALLUP..........................  52  86  54  84 /  10  20  30  30
EL MORRO........................  51  82  52  81 /  10  20  30  40
GRANTS..........................  52  83  53  82 /  10  20  30  30
QUEMADO.........................  55  82  57  81 /  20  20  30  40
GLENWOOD........................  57  85  56  83 /  20  40  30  50
CHAMA...........................  46  76  48  77 /  40  50  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  80  58  82 /  50  30  50  50
PECOS...........................  57  78  56  81 /  50  50  30  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  78  51  79 /  30  40  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  43  68  42  70 /  50  50  30  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  48  69  48  73 /  50  50  40  40
TAOS............................  47  81  49  82 /  20  10  20  20
MORA............................  52  74  52  79 /  50  50  30  50
ESPANOLA........................  55  84  54  85 /  30  20  20  30
SANTA FE........................  58  82  58  83 /  40  40  30  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  56  84  56  85 /  30  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  86  63  87 /  40  50  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  87  65  88 /  30  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  89  62  90 /  30  10  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  88  64  89 /  30  10  20  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  61  89  61  90 /  20  10  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  63  88  64  88 /  30  10  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  64  90  63  90 /  20  10  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  81  58  82 /  50  50  30  30
TIJERAS.........................  56  82  57  84 /  50  50  30  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  83  54  84 /  30  20  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  80  55  82 /  30  20  10  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  82  57  83 /  50  20  20  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  85  61  86 /  40  30  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  58  77  58  80 /  50  30  20  30
CAPULIN.........................  54  83  56  85 /  20  10  10  10
RATON...........................  52  85  52  87 /  20  10  10  20
SPRINGER........................  53  86  53  88 /  30  10  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  80  52  84 /  30  20  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  60  88  60  92 /  10   5   5   5
ROY.............................  58  85  57  88 /  50   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  63  90  62  93 /  40   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  62  89  61  92 /  30   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  63  92  62  95 /  20   5   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  64  88  62  91 /  30  10   5   5
PORTALES........................  65  89  63  92 /  50  10   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  90  63  92 /  50  10   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  67  93  65  95 /  40  10   5   5
PICACHO.........................  62  86  60  89 /  30  20   5  10
ELK.............................  61  83  59  84 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11




000
FXUS65 KABQ 282106
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVING SWD THROUGH ERN PLAINS CURRENTLY.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BACK UP AGAINST THE E LOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN THRU LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SEND IT WWD THROUGH TIJERAS CANYON AND GLORIETA PASS.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTN...AND
ALONG THE FRONT OVER SE PLAINS INCLUDING KROW. ISOLD -TSRAS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
LOCALLY HVY RAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
PERHAPS KSAF AFTER APPROX 23Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 04Z.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  58  90  61  88 /   5   5  10  30
DULCE...........................  47  82  49  81 /  20  30  20  40
CUBA............................  52  83  53  82 /  40  40  30  30
GALLUP..........................  52  86  54  84 /  10  20  30  30
EL MORRO........................  51  82  52  81 /  10  20  30  40
GRANTS..........................  52  83  53  82 /  10  20  30  30
QUEMADO.........................  55  82  57  81 /  20  20  30  40
GLENWOOD........................  57  85  56  83 /  20  40  30  50
CHAMA...........................  46  76  48  77 /  40  50  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  80  58  82 /  50  30  50  50
PECOS...........................  57  78  56  81 /  50  50  30  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  78  51  79 /  30  40  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  43  68  42  70 /  50  50  30  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  48  69  48  73 /  50  50  40  40
TAOS............................  47  81  49  82 /  20  10  20  20
MORA............................  52  74  52  79 /  50  50  30  50
ESPANOLA........................  55  84  54  85 /  30  20  20  30
SANTA FE........................  58  82  58  83 /  40  40  30  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  56  84  56  85 /  30  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  86  63  87 /  40  50  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  87  65  88 /  30  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  89  62  90 /  30  10  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  88  64  89 /  30  10  20  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  61  89  61  90 /  20  10  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  63  88  64  88 /  30  10  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  64  90  63  90 /  20  10  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  81  58  82 /  50  50  30  30
TIJERAS.........................  56  82  57  84 /  50  50  30  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  83  54  84 /  30  20  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  80  55  82 /  30  20  10  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  82  57  83 /  50  20  20  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  85  61  86 /  40  30  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  58  77  58  80 /  50  30  20  30
CAPULIN.........................  54  83  56  85 /  20  10  10  10
RATON...........................  52  85  52  87 /  20  10  10  20
SPRINGER........................  53  86  53  88 /  30  10  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  80  52  84 /  30  20  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  60  88  60  92 /  10   5   5   5
ROY.............................  58  85  57  88 /  50   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  63  90  62  93 /  40   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  62  89  61  92 /  30   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  63  92  62  95 /  20   5   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  64  88  62  91 /  30  10   5   5
PORTALES........................  65  89  63  92 /  50  10   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  90  63  92 /  50  10   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  67  93  65  95 /  40  10   5   5
PICACHO.........................  62  86  60  89 /  30  20   5  10
ELK.............................  61  83  59  84 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11




000
FXUS65 KABQ 282106
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVING SWD THROUGH ERN PLAINS CURRENTLY.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BACK UP AGAINST THE E LOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN THRU LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SEND IT WWD THROUGH TIJERAS CANYON AND GLORIETA PASS.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTN...AND
ALONG THE FRONT OVER SE PLAINS INCLUDING KROW. ISOLD -TSRAS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
LOCALLY HVY RAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
PERHAPS KSAF AFTER APPROX 23Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 04Z.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  58  90  61  88 /   5   5  10  30
DULCE...........................  47  82  49  81 /  20  30  20  40
CUBA............................  52  83  53  82 /  40  40  30  30
GALLUP..........................  52  86  54  84 /  10  20  30  30
EL MORRO........................  51  82  52  81 /  10  20  30  40
GRANTS..........................  52  83  53  82 /  10  20  30  30
QUEMADO.........................  55  82  57  81 /  20  20  30  40
GLENWOOD........................  57  85  56  83 /  20  40  30  50
CHAMA...........................  46  76  48  77 /  40  50  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  80  58  82 /  50  30  50  50
PECOS...........................  57  78  56  81 /  50  50  30  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  78  51  79 /  30  40  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  43  68  42  70 /  50  50  30  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  48  69  48  73 /  50  50  40  40
TAOS............................  47  81  49  82 /  20  10  20  20
MORA............................  52  74  52  79 /  50  50  30  50
ESPANOLA........................  55  84  54  85 /  30  20  20  30
SANTA FE........................  58  82  58  83 /  40  40  30  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  56  84  56  85 /  30  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  86  63  87 /  40  50  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  87  65  88 /  30  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  89  62  90 /  30  10  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  88  64  89 /  30  10  20  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  61  89  61  90 /  20  10  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  63  88  64  88 /  30  10  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  64  90  63  90 /  20  10  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  81  58  82 /  50  50  30  30
TIJERAS.........................  56  82  57  84 /  50  50  30  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  83  54  84 /  30  20  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  80  55  82 /  30  20  10  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  82  57  83 /  50  20  20  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  85  61  86 /  40  30  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  58  77  58  80 /  50  30  20  30
CAPULIN.........................  54  83  56  85 /  20  10  10  10
RATON...........................  52  85  52  87 /  20  10  10  20
SPRINGER........................  53  86  53  88 /  30  10  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  80  52  84 /  30  20  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  60  88  60  92 /  10   5   5   5
ROY.............................  58  85  57  88 /  50   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  63  90  62  93 /  40   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  62  89  61  92 /  30   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  63  92  62  95 /  20   5   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  64  88  62  91 /  30  10   5   5
PORTALES........................  65  89  63  92 /  50  10   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  90  63  92 /  50  10   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  67  93  65  95 /  40  10   5   5
PICACHO.........................  62  86  60  89 /  30  20   5  10
ELK.............................  61  83  59  84 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11




000
FXUS65 KABQ 282106
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVING SWD THROUGH ERN PLAINS CURRENTLY.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BACK UP AGAINST THE E LOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN THRU LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SEND IT WWD THROUGH TIJERAS CANYON AND GLORIETA PASS.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTN...AND
ALONG THE FRONT OVER SE PLAINS INCLUDING KROW. ISOLD -TSRAS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
LOCALLY HVY RAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
PERHAPS KSAF AFTER APPROX 23Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 04Z.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  58  90  61  88 /   5   5  10  30
DULCE...........................  47  82  49  81 /  20  30  20  40
CUBA............................  52  83  53  82 /  40  40  30  30
GALLUP..........................  52  86  54  84 /  10  20  30  30
EL MORRO........................  51  82  52  81 /  10  20  30  40
GRANTS..........................  52  83  53  82 /  10  20  30  30
QUEMADO.........................  55  82  57  81 /  20  20  30  40
GLENWOOD........................  57  85  56  83 /  20  40  30  50
CHAMA...........................  46  76  48  77 /  40  50  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  80  58  82 /  50  30  50  50
PECOS...........................  57  78  56  81 /  50  50  30  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  78  51  79 /  30  40  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  43  68  42  70 /  50  50  30  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  48  69  48  73 /  50  50  40  40
TAOS............................  47  81  49  82 /  20  10  20  20
MORA............................  52  74  52  79 /  50  50  30  50
ESPANOLA........................  55  84  54  85 /  30  20  20  30
SANTA FE........................  58  82  58  83 /  40  40  30  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  56  84  56  85 /  30  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  86  63  87 /  40  50  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  87  65  88 /  30  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  89  62  90 /  30  10  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  88  64  89 /  30  10  20  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  61  89  61  90 /  20  10  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  63  88  64  88 /  30  10  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  64  90  63  90 /  20  10  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  81  58  82 /  50  50  30  30
TIJERAS.........................  56  82  57  84 /  50  50  30  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  83  54  84 /  30  20  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  80  55  82 /  30  20  10  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  82  57  83 /  50  20  20  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  85  61  86 /  40  30  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  58  77  58  80 /  50  30  20  30
CAPULIN.........................  54  83  56  85 /  20  10  10  10
RATON...........................  52  85  52  87 /  20  10  10  20
SPRINGER........................  53  86  53  88 /  30  10  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  80  52  84 /  30  20  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  60  88  60  92 /  10   5   5   5
ROY.............................  58  85  57  88 /  50   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  63  90  62  93 /  40   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  62  89  61  92 /  30   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  63  92  62  95 /  20   5   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  64  88  62  91 /  30  10   5   5
PORTALES........................  65  89  63  92 /  50  10   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  90  63  92 /  50  10   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  67  93  65  95 /  40  10   5   5
PICACHO.........................  62  86  60  89 /  30  20   5  10
ELK.............................  61  83  59  84 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11




000
FXUS65 KABQ 282106
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
306 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A FAIRLY ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH
AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE TRENDING DOWN A BIT...
FAVORING CENTRAL AND ESPECIALLY WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEW MEXICO.
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND
ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE 12Z KABQ UPPER AIR SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 0.91 INCH...DOWN
FROM 1.17 INCH FROM 24HRS PRIOR BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL FOR LATE
AUGUST. AS OF 2PM MDT...A WEEK BACKDOOR FRONT WAS BANKED AGAINST
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN AND IS RESULTING IN SOME MINOR
COOLING/MOISTENING PER THE 24HR CHANGE VALUES ON THE TEMP AND
DEWPOINT TEMP OBS. MORE THAN ANYTHING...THE MILD UPSLOPE WILL HELP
TO FEED STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...
MAKING FOR LONGER-LIVED UPDRAFTS AND MORE INTENSE STORMS THAN WHAT
WE SAW YESTERDAY. MOTION IS TOWARD THE S-SE SO FAR TODAY AND
MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST KABX VAD WIND PROFILE. EXPECTING
GUSTY EAST CANYON WINDS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY EARLY THIS
EVENING FROM THE STORM OUTFLOW/COOLING-ENHANCED BACKDOOR FRONT.

THE BACKDOOR FRONT WILL PROGRESS WEST TO NEAR THE ARIZONA BORDER
TONIGHT AND RECHARGE MOISTURE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE EXPERIENCED
SOME DRYING OVER THE PAST 36 HOURS...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN
ACTIVE THUNDERSTORM PERIOD THIS WEEKEND. THE EASTERN PLAINS WILL
MOSTLY MISS-OUT ON RAIN THIS WEEKEND...BUT CENTRAL AND WESTERN
AREAS WILL BENEFIT. BEST CHANCES WILL BE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
MOUNTAINS...WHERE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS UP TO TWO INCHES
ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ON SATURDAY OR SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST
THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST.

AN ACTIVE MONSOON THUNDERSTORM PATTERN WILL CONTINUE NEXT WEEK...
PERHAPS SHARPENING UP MID TO LATE WEEK AS THE UPPER HIGH AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EASTWARD WITH A FAIRLY
POTENT WEST COAST TROUGH DEVELOPING. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN NEAR NORMAL CENTRAL AND WEST...AND ABOVE NORMAL EAST FOR
THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY HAS BACKED UP AGAINST THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTH THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THE RAIN
COOLED AIR EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WILL SEND THE FRONT WWD
INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. LATEST NAM MODEL INDICATING STORMS WILL DEVELOP WEST OF
THE RGV AROUND SUNSET AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW IS FORCED UPHILL TOWARD
THE DIVIDE.

FAVORED AREA FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL SHIFT WWD SOMEWHAT ON SATURDAY.
FAVORED AREAS WILL BE THE SW MOUNTAINS NORTH ALONG THE DIVIDE...THEN
EAST TO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. AS THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH STRENGTHENS
SOMEWHAT AND INCHES EWD SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...FLOW AT MOUNTAIN
TOP LEVEL BECOMES SWLY AND BEGINS TO TRANSPORT RELATIVELY DEEP
MOISTURE FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA NEWD INTO NM. LATEST MODEL TREND IS
FARTHER WEST WITH THE BETTER MOISTURE...FAVORING THE NWRN THIRD OR
SO OF THE STATE.

MOISTURE PLUME SHIFT EWD SOMEWHAT MONDAY...FAVORING THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF NM. GFS AND ECMWF HAVE
SWAPPED SOLUTIONS WITH REGARD TO TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK
WEEK. GFS KEEPS THE UPPER HIGH FARTHER NORTH AND CONSEQUENTLY THE
DRIER AIR OVER AZ WEST OF THE STATE WHEREAS THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN MODELS
ARE FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE HIGH CENTER...ALLOWING A DRY SOUTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT TO PENETRATE INTO NRN NM. GIVEN THE MODEL FLIP FLOPPING
OF LATE...CONFIDENCE TUESDAY AND BEYOND REMAIN LOW. SMALL CHANGES
IN THE POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL MAKE ALL THE
DIFFERENCE AS TO WHETHER CONDITIONS REMAIN ACTIVE OR DRY OUT
COMPLETELY...MAINLY NORTH.

WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS RESULT IN POOR TO FAIR VENT RATES OVER THE
WEEKEND...IMPROVING TO THE GOOD TO EXCELLENT RANGE EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVING SWD THROUGH ERN PLAINS CURRENTLY.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BACK UP AGAINST THE E LOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN THRU LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SEND IT WWD THROUGH TIJERAS CANYON AND GLORIETA PASS.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTN...AND
ALONG THE FRONT OVER SE PLAINS INCLUDING KROW. ISOLD -TSRAS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
LOCALLY HVY RAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
PERHAPS KSAF AFTER APPROX 23Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 04Z.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  58  90  61  88 /   5   5  10  30
DULCE...........................  47  82  49  81 /  20  30  20  40
CUBA............................  52  83  53  82 /  40  40  30  30
GALLUP..........................  52  86  54  84 /  10  20  30  30
EL MORRO........................  51  82  52  81 /  10  20  30  40
GRANTS..........................  52  83  53  82 /  10  20  30  30
QUEMADO.........................  55  82  57  81 /  20  20  30  40
GLENWOOD........................  57  85  56  83 /  20  40  30  50
CHAMA...........................  46  76  48  77 /  40  50  30  30
LOS ALAMOS......................  58  80  58  82 /  50  30  50  50
PECOS...........................  57  78  56  81 /  50  50  30  30
CERRO/QUESTA....................  50  78  51  79 /  30  40  30  30
RED RIVER.......................  43  68  42  70 /  50  50  30  30
ANGEL FIRE......................  48  69  48  73 /  50  50  40  40
TAOS............................  47  81  49  82 /  20  10  20  20
MORA............................  52  74  52  79 /  50  50  30  50
ESPANOLA........................  55  84  54  85 /  30  20  20  30
SANTA FE........................  58  82  58  83 /  40  40  30  30
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  56  84  56  85 /  30  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  63  86  63  87 /  40  50  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  65  87  65  88 /  30  20  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  62  89  62  90 /  30  10  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  88  64  89 /  30  10  20  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  61  89  61  90 /  20  10  20  20
RIO RANCHO......................  63  88  64  88 /  30  10  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  64  90  63  90 /  20  10  20  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  81  58  82 /  50  50  30  30
TIJERAS.........................  56  82  57  84 /  50  50  30  30
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  83  54  84 /  30  20  20  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  55  80  55  82 /  30  20  10  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  57  82  57  83 /  50  20  20  30
CARRIZOZO.......................  61  85  61  86 /  40  30  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  58  77  58  80 /  50  30  20  30
CAPULIN.........................  54  83  56  85 /  20  10  10  10
RATON...........................  52  85  52  87 /  20  10  10  20
SPRINGER........................  53  86  53  88 /  30  10  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  52  80  52  84 /  30  20  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  60  88  60  92 /  10   5   5   5
ROY.............................  58  85  57  88 /  50   5   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  63  90  62  93 /  40   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  62  89  61  92 /  30   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  63  92  62  95 /  20   5   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  64  88  62  91 /  30  10   5   5
PORTALES........................  65  89  63  92 /  50  10   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  90  63  92 /  50  10   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  67  93  65  95 /  40  10   5   5
PICACHO.........................  62  86  60  89 /  30  20   5  10
ELK.............................  61  83  59  84 /  50  30  30  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11




000
FXUS65 KABQ 281801 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1201 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVING SWD THROUGH ERN PLAINS CURRENTLY.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BACK UP AGAINST THE E LOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN THRU LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SEND IT WWD THROUGH TIJERAS CANYON AND GLORIETA PASS.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTN...AND
ALONG THE FRONT OVER SE PLAINS INCLUDING KROW. ISOLD -TSRAS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
LOCALLY HVY RAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
PERHAPS KSAF AFTER APPROX 23Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 04Z.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AND
FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER TO
THE AREA DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFT THE MAIN MOISTURE AND
RAIN FOCUS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE
LEVELS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED WESTWARD DURING THE DAY PERIOD
BASED ON THE GFS/NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW FORECASTS. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS THERE. AIDED BY CONVECTION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DRIVE WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
JUST MADE SMALL MODIFICATIONS TO THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT THE
LATEST STEERING FLOW FORECASTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. ALSO
ADDED FOG FOR THE MORENO VALLEY THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE NAM IS MUCH LESS
BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS. DECIDED TO FAVOR THE
GFS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH SHOULD RETURN TO THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. STEERING FLOWS WILL BE SLOW AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE
STABLE REGIME SHOULD ENTER EASTERN AREAS AND LIMIT CONVECTION
THERE. THE MAIN POP FOCUS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS.

THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AZ/NM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THIS WILL AID
AND FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY TREND MORE WEST TO EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE POP FIELD
ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE VALUES OVER THE MTNS.

THE PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AND REFORM FURTHER WEST
OF THE STATE MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SORT OF PARTIAL OR
PSEUDOMONSOONAL FLOW WOULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD AND HELP FUEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARENT EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF RESULTS AT THIS TIME BUT
SUSPECT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE PAC TROUGH REFORMS
TO THE WEST. EVENTUALLY THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE
MAIN MOISTURE FOCUS EASTWARD AND RETURN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE EAST.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A FALL LIKE
MONSOONAL TRANSITION WITH PAC TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO. AT SOME POINT THE STARS SHOULD
ALIGN AND ALLOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT MONSOON BURST EVENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY
TODAY...BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...
THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SE AZ. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL HELP FORCE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...PERHAPS PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE
CONTDVD...IF NOT THE AZ BORDER. THIS WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE AT THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER IT WAS MIXED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR NUDGING INTO WESTERN NM.

THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY AFTN. LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT. INCREASED STABILITY
ACROSS THE EAST WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WESTERN NM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP IS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PLUME WILL GET TILTED
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN TO NORTHWEST NM.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. GFS NOW
SHOWING THE MONSOON PLUME REESTABLISHING ITSELF QUICKLY OVER WESTERN
NM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO. THIS
IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN 12 HOURS AGO...SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SOME FORECAST CHANGES MID WEEK AND BEYOND.

VERY WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11



000
FXUS65 KABQ 281801 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1201 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVING SWD THROUGH ERN PLAINS CURRENTLY.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BACK UP AGAINST THE E LOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN THRU LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SEND IT WWD THROUGH TIJERAS CANYON AND GLORIETA PASS.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTN...AND
ALONG THE FRONT OVER SE PLAINS INCLUDING KROW. ISOLD -TSRAS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
LOCALLY HVY RAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
PERHAPS KSAF AFTER APPROX 23Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 04Z.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AND
FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER TO
THE AREA DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFT THE MAIN MOISTURE AND
RAIN FOCUS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE
LEVELS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED WESTWARD DURING THE DAY PERIOD
BASED ON THE GFS/NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW FORECASTS. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS THERE. AIDED BY CONVECTION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DRIVE WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
JUST MADE SMALL MODIFICATIONS TO THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT THE
LATEST STEERING FLOW FORECASTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. ALSO
ADDED FOG FOR THE MORENO VALLEY THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE NAM IS MUCH LESS
BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS. DECIDED TO FAVOR THE
GFS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH SHOULD RETURN TO THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. STEERING FLOWS WILL BE SLOW AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE
STABLE REGIME SHOULD ENTER EASTERN AREAS AND LIMIT CONVECTION
THERE. THE MAIN POP FOCUS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS.

THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AZ/NM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THIS WILL AID
AND FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY TREND MORE WEST TO EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE POP FIELD
ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE VALUES OVER THE MTNS.

THE PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AND REFORM FURTHER WEST
OF THE STATE MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SORT OF PARTIAL OR
PSEUDOMONSOONAL FLOW WOULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD AND HELP FUEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARENT EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF RESULTS AT THIS TIME BUT
SUSPECT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE PAC TROUGH REFORMS
TO THE WEST. EVENTUALLY THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE
MAIN MOISTURE FOCUS EASTWARD AND RETURN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE EAST.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A FALL LIKE
MONSOONAL TRANSITION WITH PAC TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO. AT SOME POINT THE STARS SHOULD
ALIGN AND ALLOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT MONSOON BURST EVENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY
TODAY...BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...
THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SE AZ. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL HELP FORCE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...PERHAPS PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE
CONTDVD...IF NOT THE AZ BORDER. THIS WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE AT THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER IT WAS MIXED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR NUDGING INTO WESTERN NM.

THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY AFTN. LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT. INCREASED STABILITY
ACROSS THE EAST WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WESTERN NM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP IS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PLUME WILL GET TILTED
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN TO NORTHWEST NM.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. GFS NOW
SHOWING THE MONSOON PLUME REESTABLISHING ITSELF QUICKLY OVER WESTERN
NM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO. THIS
IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN 12 HOURS AGO...SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SOME FORECAST CHANGES MID WEEK AND BEYOND.

VERY WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11




000
FXUS65 KABQ 281801 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1201 PM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT/BOUNDARY MOVING SWD THROUGH ERN PLAINS CURRENTLY.
EXPECT THE FRONT TO BACK UP AGAINST THE E LOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTN
CHAIN THRU LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY SEND IT WWD THROUGH TIJERAS CANYON AND GLORIETA PASS.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTN...AND
ALONG THE FRONT OVER SE PLAINS INCLUDING KROW. ISOLD -TSRAS
EXPECTED ELSEWHERE. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN
LOCALLY HVY RAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KABQ AND
PERHAPS KSAF AFTER APPROX 23Z...CONTINUING THROUGH 04Z.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AND
FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER TO
THE AREA DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFT THE MAIN MOISTURE AND
RAIN FOCUS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE
LEVELS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED WESTWARD DURING THE DAY PERIOD
BASED ON THE GFS/NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW FORECASTS. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS THERE. AIDED BY CONVECTION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DRIVE WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
JUST MADE SMALL MODIFICATIONS TO THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT THE
LATEST STEERING FLOW FORECASTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. ALSO
ADDED FOG FOR THE MORENO VALLEY THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE NAM IS MUCH LESS
BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS. DECIDED TO FAVOR THE
GFS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH SHOULD RETURN TO THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. STEERING FLOWS WILL BE SLOW AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE
STABLE REGIME SHOULD ENTER EASTERN AREAS AND LIMIT CONVECTION
THERE. THE MAIN POP FOCUS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS.

THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AZ/NM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THIS WILL AID
AND FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY TREND MORE WEST TO EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE POP FIELD
ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE VALUES OVER THE MTNS.

THE PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AND REFORM FURTHER WEST
OF THE STATE MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SORT OF PARTIAL OR
PSEUDOMONSOONAL FLOW WOULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD AND HELP FUEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARENT EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF RESULTS AT THIS TIME BUT
SUSPECT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE PAC TROUGH REFORMS
TO THE WEST. EVENTUALLY THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE
MAIN MOISTURE FOCUS EASTWARD AND RETURN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE EAST.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A FALL LIKE
MONSOONAL TRANSITION WITH PAC TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO. AT SOME POINT THE STARS SHOULD
ALIGN AND ALLOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT MONSOON BURST EVENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY
TODAY...BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...
THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SE AZ. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL HELP FORCE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...PERHAPS PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE
CONTDVD...IF NOT THE AZ BORDER. THIS WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE AT THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER IT WAS MIXED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR NUDGING INTO WESTERN NM.

THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY AFTN. LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT. INCREASED STABILITY
ACROSS THE EAST WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WESTERN NM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP IS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PLUME WILL GET TILTED
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN TO NORTHWEST NM.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. GFS NOW
SHOWING THE MONSOON PLUME REESTABLISHING ITSELF QUICKLY OVER WESTERN
NM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO. THIS
IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN 12 HOURS AGO...SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SOME FORECAST CHANGES MID WEEK AND BEYOND.

VERY WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11




000
FXUS65 KABQ 281148 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THRU KLVS AND KTCC AND IS CLOSING
IN ON KCQC. IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST
TODAY...BANKING UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THRU MID/LATE
AFTN BEFORE CONVECTION AIDS IN PUSHING IT THRU THE GAPS.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTN...AND
PERHAPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR KROW...BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD ONTO
THE PLAINS. ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...THE SW MTNS WILL BE FAVORED AS
DRY AIR NUDGES INTO THE NW. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN LOCALLY HVY RAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KABQ/KSAF LATE FRIDAY AFTN/EVE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AND
FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER TO
THE AREA DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFT THE MAIN MOISTURE AND
RAIN FOCUS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE
LEVELS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED WESTWARD DURING THE DAY PERIOD
BASED ON THE GFS/NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW FORECASTS. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS THERE. AIDED BY CONVECTION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DRIVE WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
JUST MADE SMALL MODIFICATIONS TO THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT THE
LATEST STEERING FLOW FORECASTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. ALSO
ADDED FOG FOR THE MORENO VALLEY THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE NAM IS MUCH LESS
BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS. DECIDED TO FAVOR THE
GFS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH SHOULD RETURN TO THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. STEERING FLOWS WILL BE SLOW AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE
STABLE REGIME SHOULD ENTER EASTERN AREAS AND LIMIT CONVECTION
THERE. THE MAIN POP FOCUS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS.

THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AZ/NM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THIS WILL AID
AND FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY TREND MORE WEST TO EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE POP FIELD
ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE VALUES OVER THE MTNS.

THE PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AND REFORM FURTHER WEST
OF THE STATE MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SORT OF PARTIAL OR
PSEUDOMONSOONAL FLOW WOULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD AND HELP FUEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARENT EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF RESULTS AT THIS TIME BUT
SUSPECT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE PAC TROUGH REFORMS
TO THE WEST. EVENTUALLY THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE
MAIN MOISTURE FOCUS EASTWARD AND RETURN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE EAST.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A FALL LIKE
MONSOONAL TRANSITION WITH PAC TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO. AT SOME POINT THE STARS SHOULD
ALIGN AND ALLOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT MONSOON BURST EVENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY
TODAY...BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...
THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SE AZ. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL HELP FORCE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...PERHAPS PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE
CONTDVD...IF NOT THE AZ BORDER. THIS WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE AT THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER IT WAS MIXED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR NUDGING INTO WESTERN NM.

THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY AFTN. LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT. INCREASED STABILITY
ACROSS THE EAST WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WESTERN NM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP IS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PLUME WILL GET TILTED
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN TO NORTHWEST NM.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. GFS NOW
SHOWING THE MONSOON PLUME REESTABLISHING ITSELF QUICKLY OVER WESTERN
NM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO. THIS
IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN 12 HOURS AGO...SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SOME FORECAST CHANGES MID WEEK AND BEYOND.

VERY WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 281148 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THRU KLVS AND KTCC AND IS CLOSING
IN ON KCQC. IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST
TODAY...BANKING UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THRU MID/LATE
AFTN BEFORE CONVECTION AIDS IN PUSHING IT THRU THE GAPS.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTN...AND
PERHAPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR KROW...BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD ONTO
THE PLAINS. ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...THE SW MTNS WILL BE FAVORED AS
DRY AIR NUDGES INTO THE NW. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN LOCALLY HVY RAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KABQ/KSAF LATE FRIDAY AFTN/EVE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AND
FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER TO
THE AREA DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFT THE MAIN MOISTURE AND
RAIN FOCUS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE
LEVELS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED WESTWARD DURING THE DAY PERIOD
BASED ON THE GFS/NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW FORECASTS. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS THERE. AIDED BY CONVECTION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DRIVE WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
JUST MADE SMALL MODIFICATIONS TO THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT THE
LATEST STEERING FLOW FORECASTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. ALSO
ADDED FOG FOR THE MORENO VALLEY THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE NAM IS MUCH LESS
BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS. DECIDED TO FAVOR THE
GFS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH SHOULD RETURN TO THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. STEERING FLOWS WILL BE SLOW AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE
STABLE REGIME SHOULD ENTER EASTERN AREAS AND LIMIT CONVECTION
THERE. THE MAIN POP FOCUS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS.

THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AZ/NM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THIS WILL AID
AND FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY TREND MORE WEST TO EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE POP FIELD
ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE VALUES OVER THE MTNS.

THE PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AND REFORM FURTHER WEST
OF THE STATE MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SORT OF PARTIAL OR
PSEUDOMONSOONAL FLOW WOULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD AND HELP FUEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARENT EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF RESULTS AT THIS TIME BUT
SUSPECT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE PAC TROUGH REFORMS
TO THE WEST. EVENTUALLY THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE
MAIN MOISTURE FOCUS EASTWARD AND RETURN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE EAST.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A FALL LIKE
MONSOONAL TRANSITION WITH PAC TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO. AT SOME POINT THE STARS SHOULD
ALIGN AND ALLOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT MONSOON BURST EVENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY
TODAY...BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...
THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SE AZ. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL HELP FORCE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...PERHAPS PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE
CONTDVD...IF NOT THE AZ BORDER. THIS WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE AT THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER IT WAS MIXED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR NUDGING INTO WESTERN NM.

THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY AFTN. LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT. INCREASED STABILITY
ACROSS THE EAST WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WESTERN NM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP IS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PLUME WILL GET TILTED
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN TO NORTHWEST NM.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. GFS NOW
SHOWING THE MONSOON PLUME REESTABLISHING ITSELF QUICKLY OVER WESTERN
NM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO. THIS
IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN 12 HOURS AGO...SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SOME FORECAST CHANGES MID WEEK AND BEYOND.

VERY WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 281148 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THRU KLVS AND KTCC AND IS CLOSING
IN ON KCQC. IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST
TODAY...BANKING UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THRU MID/LATE
AFTN BEFORE CONVECTION AIDS IN PUSHING IT THRU THE GAPS.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTN...AND
PERHAPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR KROW...BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD ONTO
THE PLAINS. ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...THE SW MTNS WILL BE FAVORED AS
DRY AIR NUDGES INTO THE NW. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN LOCALLY HVY RAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KABQ/KSAF LATE FRIDAY AFTN/EVE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AND
FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER TO
THE AREA DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFT THE MAIN MOISTURE AND
RAIN FOCUS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE
LEVELS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED WESTWARD DURING THE DAY PERIOD
BASED ON THE GFS/NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW FORECASTS. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS THERE. AIDED BY CONVECTION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DRIVE WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
JUST MADE SMALL MODIFICATIONS TO THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT THE
LATEST STEERING FLOW FORECASTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. ALSO
ADDED FOG FOR THE MORENO VALLEY THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE NAM IS MUCH LESS
BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS. DECIDED TO FAVOR THE
GFS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH SHOULD RETURN TO THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. STEERING FLOWS WILL BE SLOW AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE
STABLE REGIME SHOULD ENTER EASTERN AREAS AND LIMIT CONVECTION
THERE. THE MAIN POP FOCUS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS.

THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AZ/NM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THIS WILL AID
AND FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY TREND MORE WEST TO EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE POP FIELD
ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE VALUES OVER THE MTNS.

THE PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AND REFORM FURTHER WEST
OF THE STATE MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SORT OF PARTIAL OR
PSEUDOMONSOONAL FLOW WOULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD AND HELP FUEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARENT EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF RESULTS AT THIS TIME BUT
SUSPECT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE PAC TROUGH REFORMS
TO THE WEST. EVENTUALLY THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE
MAIN MOISTURE FOCUS EASTWARD AND RETURN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE EAST.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A FALL LIKE
MONSOONAL TRANSITION WITH PAC TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO. AT SOME POINT THE STARS SHOULD
ALIGN AND ALLOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT MONSOON BURST EVENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY
TODAY...BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...
THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SE AZ. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL HELP FORCE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...PERHAPS PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE
CONTDVD...IF NOT THE AZ BORDER. THIS WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE AT THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER IT WAS MIXED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR NUDGING INTO WESTERN NM.

THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY AFTN. LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT. INCREASED STABILITY
ACROSS THE EAST WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WESTERN NM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP IS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PLUME WILL GET TILTED
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN TO NORTHWEST NM.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. GFS NOW
SHOWING THE MONSOON PLUME REESTABLISHING ITSELF QUICKLY OVER WESTERN
NM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO. THIS
IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN 12 HOURS AGO...SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SOME FORECAST CHANGES MID WEEK AND BEYOND.

VERY WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 281148 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THRU KLVS AND KTCC AND IS CLOSING
IN ON KCQC. IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST
TODAY...BANKING UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THRU MID/LATE
AFTN BEFORE CONVECTION AIDS IN PUSHING IT THRU THE GAPS.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTN...AND
PERHAPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR KROW...BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD ONTO
THE PLAINS. ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...THE SW MTNS WILL BE FAVORED AS
DRY AIR NUDGES INTO THE NW. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN LOCALLY HVY RAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KABQ/KSAF LATE FRIDAY AFTN/EVE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AND
FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER TO
THE AREA DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFT THE MAIN MOISTURE AND
RAIN FOCUS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE
LEVELS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED WESTWARD DURING THE DAY PERIOD
BASED ON THE GFS/NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW FORECASTS. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS THERE. AIDED BY CONVECTION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DRIVE WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
JUST MADE SMALL MODIFICATIONS TO THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT THE
LATEST STEERING FLOW FORECASTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. ALSO
ADDED FOG FOR THE MORENO VALLEY THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE NAM IS MUCH LESS
BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS. DECIDED TO FAVOR THE
GFS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH SHOULD RETURN TO THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. STEERING FLOWS WILL BE SLOW AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE
STABLE REGIME SHOULD ENTER EASTERN AREAS AND LIMIT CONVECTION
THERE. THE MAIN POP FOCUS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS.

THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AZ/NM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THIS WILL AID
AND FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY TREND MORE WEST TO EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE POP FIELD
ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE VALUES OVER THE MTNS.

THE PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AND REFORM FURTHER WEST
OF THE STATE MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SORT OF PARTIAL OR
PSEUDOMONSOONAL FLOW WOULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD AND HELP FUEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARENT EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF RESULTS AT THIS TIME BUT
SUSPECT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE PAC TROUGH REFORMS
TO THE WEST. EVENTUALLY THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE
MAIN MOISTURE FOCUS EASTWARD AND RETURN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE EAST.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A FALL LIKE
MONSOONAL TRANSITION WITH PAC TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO. AT SOME POINT THE STARS SHOULD
ALIGN AND ALLOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT MONSOON BURST EVENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY
TODAY...BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...
THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SE AZ. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL HELP FORCE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...PERHAPS PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE
CONTDVD...IF NOT THE AZ BORDER. THIS WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE AT THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER IT WAS MIXED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR NUDGING INTO WESTERN NM.

THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY AFTN. LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT. INCREASED STABILITY
ACROSS THE EAST WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WESTERN NM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP IS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PLUME WILL GET TILTED
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN TO NORTHWEST NM.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. GFS NOW
SHOWING THE MONSOON PLUME REESTABLISHING ITSELF QUICKLY OVER WESTERN
NM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO. THIS
IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN 12 HOURS AGO...SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SOME FORECAST CHANGES MID WEEK AND BEYOND.

VERY WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 281148 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THRU KLVS AND KTCC AND IS CLOSING
IN ON KCQC. IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST
TODAY...BANKING UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THRU MID/LATE
AFTN BEFORE CONVECTION AIDS IN PUSHING IT THRU THE GAPS.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTN...AND
PERHAPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR KROW...BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD ONTO
THE PLAINS. ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...THE SW MTNS WILL BE FAVORED AS
DRY AIR NUDGES INTO THE NW. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN LOCALLY HVY RAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KABQ/KSAF LATE FRIDAY AFTN/EVE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AND
FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER TO
THE AREA DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFT THE MAIN MOISTURE AND
RAIN FOCUS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE
LEVELS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED WESTWARD DURING THE DAY PERIOD
BASED ON THE GFS/NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW FORECASTS. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS THERE. AIDED BY CONVECTION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DRIVE WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
JUST MADE SMALL MODIFICATIONS TO THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT THE
LATEST STEERING FLOW FORECASTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. ALSO
ADDED FOG FOR THE MORENO VALLEY THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE NAM IS MUCH LESS
BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS. DECIDED TO FAVOR THE
GFS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH SHOULD RETURN TO THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. STEERING FLOWS WILL BE SLOW AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE
STABLE REGIME SHOULD ENTER EASTERN AREAS AND LIMIT CONVECTION
THERE. THE MAIN POP FOCUS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS.

THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AZ/NM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THIS WILL AID
AND FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY TREND MORE WEST TO EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE POP FIELD
ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE VALUES OVER THE MTNS.

THE PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AND REFORM FURTHER WEST
OF THE STATE MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SORT OF PARTIAL OR
PSEUDOMONSOONAL FLOW WOULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD AND HELP FUEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARENT EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF RESULTS AT THIS TIME BUT
SUSPECT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE PAC TROUGH REFORMS
TO THE WEST. EVENTUALLY THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE
MAIN MOISTURE FOCUS EASTWARD AND RETURN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE EAST.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A FALL LIKE
MONSOONAL TRANSITION WITH PAC TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO. AT SOME POINT THE STARS SHOULD
ALIGN AND ALLOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT MONSOON BURST EVENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY
TODAY...BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...
THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SE AZ. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL HELP FORCE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...PERHAPS PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE
CONTDVD...IF NOT THE AZ BORDER. THIS WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE AT THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER IT WAS MIXED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR NUDGING INTO WESTERN NM.

THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY AFTN. LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT. INCREASED STABILITY
ACROSS THE EAST WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WESTERN NM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP IS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PLUME WILL GET TILTED
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN TO NORTHWEST NM.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. GFS NOW
SHOWING THE MONSOON PLUME REESTABLISHING ITSELF QUICKLY OVER WESTERN
NM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO. THIS
IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN 12 HOURS AGO...SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SOME FORECAST CHANGES MID WEEK AND BEYOND.

VERY WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 281148 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THRU KLVS AND KTCC AND IS CLOSING
IN ON KCQC. IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST
TODAY...BANKING UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THRU MID/LATE
AFTN BEFORE CONVECTION AIDS IN PUSHING IT THRU THE GAPS.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTN...AND
PERHAPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR KROW...BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD ONTO
THE PLAINS. ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...THE SW MTNS WILL BE FAVORED AS
DRY AIR NUDGES INTO THE NW. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN LOCALLY HVY RAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KABQ/KSAF LATE FRIDAY AFTN/EVE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AND
FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER TO
THE AREA DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFT THE MAIN MOISTURE AND
RAIN FOCUS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE
LEVELS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED WESTWARD DURING THE DAY PERIOD
BASED ON THE GFS/NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW FORECASTS. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS THERE. AIDED BY CONVECTION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DRIVE WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
JUST MADE SMALL MODIFICATIONS TO THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT THE
LATEST STEERING FLOW FORECASTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. ALSO
ADDED FOG FOR THE MORENO VALLEY THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE NAM IS MUCH LESS
BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS. DECIDED TO FAVOR THE
GFS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH SHOULD RETURN TO THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. STEERING FLOWS WILL BE SLOW AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE
STABLE REGIME SHOULD ENTER EASTERN AREAS AND LIMIT CONVECTION
THERE. THE MAIN POP FOCUS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS.

THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AZ/NM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THIS WILL AID
AND FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY TREND MORE WEST TO EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE POP FIELD
ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE VALUES OVER THE MTNS.

THE PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AND REFORM FURTHER WEST
OF THE STATE MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SORT OF PARTIAL OR
PSEUDOMONSOONAL FLOW WOULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD AND HELP FUEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARENT EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF RESULTS AT THIS TIME BUT
SUSPECT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE PAC TROUGH REFORMS
TO THE WEST. EVENTUALLY THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE
MAIN MOISTURE FOCUS EASTWARD AND RETURN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE EAST.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A FALL LIKE
MONSOONAL TRANSITION WITH PAC TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO. AT SOME POINT THE STARS SHOULD
ALIGN AND ALLOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT MONSOON BURST EVENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY
TODAY...BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...
THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SE AZ. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL HELP FORCE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...PERHAPS PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE
CONTDVD...IF NOT THE AZ BORDER. THIS WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE AT THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER IT WAS MIXED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR NUDGING INTO WESTERN NM.

THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY AFTN. LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT. INCREASED STABILITY
ACROSS THE EAST WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WESTERN NM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP IS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PLUME WILL GET TILTED
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN TO NORTHWEST NM.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. GFS NOW
SHOWING THE MONSOON PLUME REESTABLISHING ITSELF QUICKLY OVER WESTERN
NM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO. THIS
IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN 12 HOURS AGO...SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SOME FORECAST CHANGES MID WEEK AND BEYOND.

VERY WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 281148 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THRU KLVS AND KTCC AND IS CLOSING
IN ON KCQC. IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST
TODAY...BANKING UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THRU MID/LATE
AFTN BEFORE CONVECTION AIDS IN PUSHING IT THRU THE GAPS.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTN...AND
PERHAPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR KROW...BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD ONTO
THE PLAINS. ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...THE SW MTNS WILL BE FAVORED AS
DRY AIR NUDGES INTO THE NW. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN LOCALLY HVY RAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KABQ/KSAF LATE FRIDAY AFTN/EVE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AND
FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER TO
THE AREA DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFT THE MAIN MOISTURE AND
RAIN FOCUS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE
LEVELS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED WESTWARD DURING THE DAY PERIOD
BASED ON THE GFS/NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW FORECASTS. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS THERE. AIDED BY CONVECTION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DRIVE WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
JUST MADE SMALL MODIFICATIONS TO THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT THE
LATEST STEERING FLOW FORECASTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. ALSO
ADDED FOG FOR THE MORENO VALLEY THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE NAM IS MUCH LESS
BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS. DECIDED TO FAVOR THE
GFS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH SHOULD RETURN TO THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. STEERING FLOWS WILL BE SLOW AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE
STABLE REGIME SHOULD ENTER EASTERN AREAS AND LIMIT CONVECTION
THERE. THE MAIN POP FOCUS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS.

THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AZ/NM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THIS WILL AID
AND FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY TREND MORE WEST TO EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE POP FIELD
ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE VALUES OVER THE MTNS.

THE PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AND REFORM FURTHER WEST
OF THE STATE MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SORT OF PARTIAL OR
PSEUDOMONSOONAL FLOW WOULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD AND HELP FUEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARENT EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF RESULTS AT THIS TIME BUT
SUSPECT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE PAC TROUGH REFORMS
TO THE WEST. EVENTUALLY THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE
MAIN MOISTURE FOCUS EASTWARD AND RETURN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE EAST.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A FALL LIKE
MONSOONAL TRANSITION WITH PAC TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO. AT SOME POINT THE STARS SHOULD
ALIGN AND ALLOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT MONSOON BURST EVENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY
TODAY...BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...
THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SE AZ. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL HELP FORCE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...PERHAPS PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE
CONTDVD...IF NOT THE AZ BORDER. THIS WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE AT THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER IT WAS MIXED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR NUDGING INTO WESTERN NM.

THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY AFTN. LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT. INCREASED STABILITY
ACROSS THE EAST WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WESTERN NM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP IS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PLUME WILL GET TILTED
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN TO NORTHWEST NM.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. GFS NOW
SHOWING THE MONSOON PLUME REESTABLISHING ITSELF QUICKLY OVER WESTERN
NM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO. THIS
IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN 12 HOURS AGO...SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SOME FORECAST CHANGES MID WEEK AND BEYOND.

VERY WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 281148 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
548 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THRU KLVS AND KTCC AND IS CLOSING
IN ON KCQC. IT WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST
TODAY...BANKING UP AGAINST THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN THRU MID/LATE
AFTN BEFORE CONVECTION AIDS IN PUSHING IT THRU THE GAPS.
CONVECTION WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN DURING THE AFTN...AND
PERHAPS ALONG THE FRONT NEAR KROW...BEFORE SPREADING EASTWARD ONTO
THE PLAINS. ACROSS WESTERN AREAS...THE SW MTNS WILL BE FAVORED AS
DRY AIR NUDGES INTO THE NW. BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WILL BE POSSIBLE
IN LOCALLY HVY RAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KABQ/KSAF LATE FRIDAY AFTN/EVE AS THE FRONT PUSHES THRU.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...333 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AND
FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER TO
THE AREA DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFT THE MAIN MOISTURE AND
RAIN FOCUS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE
LEVELS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED WESTWARD DURING THE DAY PERIOD
BASED ON THE GFS/NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW FORECASTS. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS THERE. AIDED BY CONVECTION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DRIVE WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
JUST MADE SMALL MODIFICATIONS TO THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT THE
LATEST STEERING FLOW FORECASTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. ALSO
ADDED FOG FOR THE MORENO VALLEY THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE NAM IS MUCH LESS
BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS. DECIDED TO FAVOR THE
GFS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH SHOULD RETURN TO THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. STEERING FLOWS WILL BE SLOW AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE
STABLE REGIME SHOULD ENTER EASTERN AREAS AND LIMIT CONVECTION
THERE. THE MAIN POP FOCUS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS.

THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AZ/NM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THIS WILL AID
AND FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY TREND MORE WEST TO EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE POP FIELD
ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE VALUES OVER THE MTNS.

THE PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AND REFORM FURTHER WEST
OF THE STATE MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SORT OF PARTIAL OR
PSEUDOMONSOONAL FLOW WOULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD AND HELP FUEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARENT EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF RESULTS AT THIS TIME BUT
SUSPECT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE PAC TROUGH REFORMS
TO THE WEST. EVENTUALLY THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE
MAIN MOISTURE FOCUS EASTWARD AND RETURN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE EAST.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A FALL LIKE
MONSOONAL TRANSITION WITH PAC TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO. AT SOME POINT THE STARS SHOULD
ALIGN AND ALLOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT MONSOON BURST EVENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY
TODAY...BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...
THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SE AZ. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL HELP FORCE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...PERHAPS PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE
CONTDVD...IF NOT THE AZ BORDER. THIS WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE AT THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER IT WAS MIXED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR NUDGING INTO WESTERN NM.

THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY AFTN. LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT. INCREASED STABILITY
ACROSS THE EAST WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WESTERN NM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP IS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PLUME WILL GET TILTED
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN TO NORTHWEST NM.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. GFS NOW
SHOWING THE MONSOON PLUME REESTABLISHING ITSELF QUICKLY OVER WESTERN
NM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO. THIS
IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN 12 HOURS AGO...SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SOME FORECAST CHANGES MID WEEK AND BEYOND.

VERY WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

34

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 280933
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
333 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AND
FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER TO
THE AREA DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFT THE MAIN MOISTURE AND
RAIN FOCUS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE
LEVELS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED WESTWARD DURING THE DAY PERIOD
BASED ON THE GFS/NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW FORECASTS. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS THERE. AIDED BY CONVECTION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DRIVE WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
JUST MADE SMALL MODIFICATIONS TO THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT THE
LATEST STEERING FLOW FORECASTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. ALSO
ADDED FOG FOR THE MORENO VALLEY THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE NAM IS MUCH LESS
BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS. DECIDED TO FAVOR THE
GFS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH SHOULD RETURN TO THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. STEERING FLOWS WILL BE SLOW AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE
STABLE REGIME SHOULD ENTER EASTERN AREAS AND LIMIT CONVECTION
THERE. THE MAIN POP FOCUS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS.

THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AZ/NM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THIS WILL AID
AND FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY TREND MORE WEST TO EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE POP FIELD
ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE VALUES OVER THE MTNS.

THE PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AND REFORM FURTHER WEST
OF THE STATE MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SORT OF PARTIAL OR
PSEUDOMONSOONAL FLOW WOULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD AND HELP FUEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARENT EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF RESULTS AT THIS TIME BUT
SUSPECT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE PAC TROUGH REFORMS
TO THE WEST. EVENTUALLY THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE
MAIN MOISTURE FOCUS EASTWARD AND RETURN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE EAST.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A FALL LIKE
MONSOONAL TRANSITION WITH PAC TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO. AT SOME POINT THE STARS SHOULD
ALIGN AND ALLOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT MONSOON BURST EVENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY
TODAY...BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...
THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SE AZ. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL HELP FORCE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...PERHAPS PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE
CONTDVD...IF NOT THE AZ BORDER. THIS WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE AT THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER IT WAS MIXED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR NUDGING INTO WESTERN NM.

THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY AFTN. LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT. INCREASED STABILITY
ACROSS THE EAST WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WESTERN NM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP IS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PLUME WILL GET TILTED
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN TO NORTHWEST NM.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. GFS NOW
SHOWING THE MONSOON PLUME REESTABLISHING ITSELF QUICKLY OVER WESTERN
NM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO. THIS
IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN 12 HOURS AGO...SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SOME FORECAST CHANGES MID WEEK AND BEYOND.

VERY WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.


34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND IT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AS WELL AS NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOW UP
NEAR KROW...THUS CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT KROW WILL BE
IMPACTED BY STORMS FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION ALONG
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL AID IN PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KABQ/KSAF LATE FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE LOWEST NEAR
KFMN/KGUP WHERE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL WORK INTO THE STATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  88  59  90  60 /   5   5  10  20
DULCE...........................  82  48  82  49 /  10  30  30  40
CUBA............................  81  52  81  53 /  20  30  30  40
GALLUP..........................  86  53  86  55 /  10  10  20  30
EL MORRO........................  82  52  81  52 /  20  20  30  40
GRANTS..........................  83  53  83  52 /  10  20  20  40
QUEMADO.........................  82  56  82  55 /  20  20  30  50
GLENWOOD........................  87  57  85  57 /  30  30  40  50
CHAMA...........................  77  47  77  48 /  40  40  40  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  81  58  81  58 /  30  40  40  40
PECOS...........................  77  56  79  55 /  60  50  50  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  77  51  78  50 /  30  30  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  66  43  67  45 /  60  50  50  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  68  48  69  48 /  60  50  50  50
TAOS............................  80  49  80  49 /  20  20  20  20
MORA............................  73  52  74  51 /  60  40  40  40
ESPANOLA........................  85  55  85  55 /  20  30  20  20
SANTA FE........................  81  58  81  58 /  40  40  30  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  84  56  84  56 /  20  30  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  85  63  86  63 /  30  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  87  65  88  65 /  20  30  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  89  63  89  63 /  10  30  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  88  64  88  63 /  20  30  10  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  89  61  89  61 /  10  30  10  10
RIO RANCHO......................  88  63  88  63 /  20  30  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  90  63  89  64 /  10  30  10  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  81  57  81  58 /  40  40  40  40
TIJERAS.........................  83  57  83  58 /  40  40  40  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  82  53  83  54 /  20  30  10  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  79  55  80  56 /  30  30  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  82  57  82  58 /  30  40  10  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  87  62  85  62 /  30  40  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  78  57  77  57 /  50  50  30  20
CAPULIN.........................  79  54  80  55 /  20  20  20  10
RATON...........................  83  53  84  52 /  20  20  10  10
SPRINGER........................  83  53  84  53 /  20  20  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  78  52  80  52 /  40  30  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  86  61  87  61 /  20  10   0   5
ROY.............................  82  56  84  57 /  30  20  10  10
CONCHAS.........................  89  63  90  63 /  20  20   5  10
SANTA ROSA......................  89  62  89  62 /  20  40  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  91  63  91  63 /  20  20   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  90  63  89  62 /  20  30  10   5
PORTALES........................  91  64  90  63 /  20  30  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  91  64  90  63 /  20  30  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  95  67  94  66 /  20  30  10  10
PICACHO.........................  88  61  87  61 /  40  40  10  10
ELK.............................  82  60  81  59 /  60  40  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50



000
FXUS65 KABQ 280933
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
333 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AND
FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER TO
THE AREA DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFT THE MAIN MOISTURE AND
RAIN FOCUS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE
LEVELS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED WESTWARD DURING THE DAY PERIOD
BASED ON THE GFS/NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW FORECASTS. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS THERE. AIDED BY CONVECTION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DRIVE WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
JUST MADE SMALL MODIFICATIONS TO THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT THE
LATEST STEERING FLOW FORECASTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. ALSO
ADDED FOG FOR THE MORENO VALLEY THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE NAM IS MUCH LESS
BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS. DECIDED TO FAVOR THE
GFS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH SHOULD RETURN TO THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. STEERING FLOWS WILL BE SLOW AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE
STABLE REGIME SHOULD ENTER EASTERN AREAS AND LIMIT CONVECTION
THERE. THE MAIN POP FOCUS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS.

THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AZ/NM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THIS WILL AID
AND FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY TREND MORE WEST TO EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE POP FIELD
ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE VALUES OVER THE MTNS.

THE PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AND REFORM FURTHER WEST
OF THE STATE MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SORT OF PARTIAL OR
PSEUDOMONSOONAL FLOW WOULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD AND HELP FUEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARENT EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF RESULTS AT THIS TIME BUT
SUSPECT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE PAC TROUGH REFORMS
TO THE WEST. EVENTUALLY THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE
MAIN MOISTURE FOCUS EASTWARD AND RETURN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE EAST.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A FALL LIKE
MONSOONAL TRANSITION WITH PAC TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO. AT SOME POINT THE STARS SHOULD
ALIGN AND ALLOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT MONSOON BURST EVENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY
TODAY...BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...
THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SE AZ. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL HELP FORCE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...PERHAPS PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE
CONTDVD...IF NOT THE AZ BORDER. THIS WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE AT THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER IT WAS MIXED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR NUDGING INTO WESTERN NM.

THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY AFTN. LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT. INCREASED STABILITY
ACROSS THE EAST WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WESTERN NM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP IS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PLUME WILL GET TILTED
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN TO NORTHWEST NM.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. GFS NOW
SHOWING THE MONSOON PLUME REESTABLISHING ITSELF QUICKLY OVER WESTERN
NM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO. THIS
IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN 12 HOURS AGO...SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SOME FORECAST CHANGES MID WEEK AND BEYOND.

VERY WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.


34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND IT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AS WELL AS NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOW UP
NEAR KROW...THUS CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT KROW WILL BE
IMPACTED BY STORMS FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION ALONG
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL AID IN PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KABQ/KSAF LATE FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE LOWEST NEAR
KFMN/KGUP WHERE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL WORK INTO THE STATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  88  59  90  60 /   5   5  10  20
DULCE...........................  82  48  82  49 /  10  30  30  40
CUBA............................  81  52  81  53 /  20  30  30  40
GALLUP..........................  86  53  86  55 /  10  10  20  30
EL MORRO........................  82  52  81  52 /  20  20  30  40
GRANTS..........................  83  53  83  52 /  10  20  20  40
QUEMADO.........................  82  56  82  55 /  20  20  30  50
GLENWOOD........................  87  57  85  57 /  30  30  40  50
CHAMA...........................  77  47  77  48 /  40  40  40  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  81  58  81  58 /  30  40  40  40
PECOS...........................  77  56  79  55 /  60  50  50  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  77  51  78  50 /  30  30  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  66  43  67  45 /  60  50  50  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  68  48  69  48 /  60  50  50  50
TAOS............................  80  49  80  49 /  20  20  20  20
MORA............................  73  52  74  51 /  60  40  40  40
ESPANOLA........................  85  55  85  55 /  20  30  20  20
SANTA FE........................  81  58  81  58 /  40  40  30  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  84  56  84  56 /  20  30  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  85  63  86  63 /  30  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  87  65  88  65 /  20  30  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  89  63  89  63 /  10  30  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  88  64  88  63 /  20  30  10  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  89  61  89  61 /  10  30  10  10
RIO RANCHO......................  88  63  88  63 /  20  30  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  90  63  89  64 /  10  30  10  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  81  57  81  58 /  40  40  40  40
TIJERAS.........................  83  57  83  58 /  40  40  40  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  82  53  83  54 /  20  30  10  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  79  55  80  56 /  30  30  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  82  57  82  58 /  30  40  10  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  87  62  85  62 /  30  40  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  78  57  77  57 /  50  50  30  20
CAPULIN.........................  79  54  80  55 /  20  20  20  10
RATON...........................  83  53  84  52 /  20  20  10  10
SPRINGER........................  83  53  84  53 /  20  20  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  78  52  80  52 /  40  30  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  86  61  87  61 /  20  10   0   5
ROY.............................  82  56  84  57 /  30  20  10  10
CONCHAS.........................  89  63  90  63 /  20  20   5  10
SANTA ROSA......................  89  62  89  62 /  20  40  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  91  63  91  63 /  20  20   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  90  63  89  62 /  20  30  10   5
PORTALES........................  91  64  90  63 /  20  30  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  91  64  90  63 /  20  30  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  95  67  94  66 /  20  30  10  10
PICACHO.........................  88  61  87  61 /  40  40  10  10
ELK.............................  82  60  81  59 /  60  40  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50




000
FXUS65 KABQ 280933
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
333 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AND
FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER TO
THE AREA DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFT THE MAIN MOISTURE AND
RAIN FOCUS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE
LEVELS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED WESTWARD DURING THE DAY PERIOD
BASED ON THE GFS/NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW FORECASTS. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS THERE. AIDED BY CONVECTION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DRIVE WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
JUST MADE SMALL MODIFICATIONS TO THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT THE
LATEST STEERING FLOW FORECASTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. ALSO
ADDED FOG FOR THE MORENO VALLEY THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE NAM IS MUCH LESS
BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS. DECIDED TO FAVOR THE
GFS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH SHOULD RETURN TO THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. STEERING FLOWS WILL BE SLOW AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE
STABLE REGIME SHOULD ENTER EASTERN AREAS AND LIMIT CONVECTION
THERE. THE MAIN POP FOCUS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS.

THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AZ/NM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THIS WILL AID
AND FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY TREND MORE WEST TO EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE POP FIELD
ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE VALUES OVER THE MTNS.

THE PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AND REFORM FURTHER WEST
OF THE STATE MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SORT OF PARTIAL OR
PSEUDOMONSOONAL FLOW WOULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD AND HELP FUEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARENT EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF RESULTS AT THIS TIME BUT
SUSPECT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE PAC TROUGH REFORMS
TO THE WEST. EVENTUALLY THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE
MAIN MOISTURE FOCUS EASTWARD AND RETURN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE EAST.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A FALL LIKE
MONSOONAL TRANSITION WITH PAC TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO. AT SOME POINT THE STARS SHOULD
ALIGN AND ALLOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT MONSOON BURST EVENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY
TODAY...BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...
THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SE AZ. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL HELP FORCE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...PERHAPS PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE
CONTDVD...IF NOT THE AZ BORDER. THIS WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE AT THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER IT WAS MIXED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR NUDGING INTO WESTERN NM.

THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY AFTN. LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT. INCREASED STABILITY
ACROSS THE EAST WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WESTERN NM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP IS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PLUME WILL GET TILTED
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN TO NORTHWEST NM.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. GFS NOW
SHOWING THE MONSOON PLUME REESTABLISHING ITSELF QUICKLY OVER WESTERN
NM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO. THIS
IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN 12 HOURS AGO...SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SOME FORECAST CHANGES MID WEEK AND BEYOND.

VERY WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.


34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND IT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AS WELL AS NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOW UP
NEAR KROW...THUS CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT KROW WILL BE
IMPACTED BY STORMS FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION ALONG
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL AID IN PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KABQ/KSAF LATE FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE LOWEST NEAR
KFMN/KGUP WHERE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL WORK INTO THE STATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  88  59  90  60 /   5   5  10  20
DULCE...........................  82  48  82  49 /  10  30  30  40
CUBA............................  81  52  81  53 /  20  30  30  40
GALLUP..........................  86  53  86  55 /  10  10  20  30
EL MORRO........................  82  52  81  52 /  20  20  30  40
GRANTS..........................  83  53  83  52 /  10  20  20  40
QUEMADO.........................  82  56  82  55 /  20  20  30  50
GLENWOOD........................  87  57  85  57 /  30  30  40  50
CHAMA...........................  77  47  77  48 /  40  40  40  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  81  58  81  58 /  30  40  40  40
PECOS...........................  77  56  79  55 /  60  50  50  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  77  51  78  50 /  30  30  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  66  43  67  45 /  60  50  50  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  68  48  69  48 /  60  50  50  50
TAOS............................  80  49  80  49 /  20  20  20  20
MORA............................  73  52  74  51 /  60  40  40  40
ESPANOLA........................  85  55  85  55 /  20  30  20  20
SANTA FE........................  81  58  81  58 /  40  40  30  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  84  56  84  56 /  20  30  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  85  63  86  63 /  30  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  87  65  88  65 /  20  30  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  89  63  89  63 /  10  30  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  88  64  88  63 /  20  30  10  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  89  61  89  61 /  10  30  10  10
RIO RANCHO......................  88  63  88  63 /  20  30  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  90  63  89  64 /  10  30  10  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  81  57  81  58 /  40  40  40  40
TIJERAS.........................  83  57  83  58 /  40  40  40  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  82  53  83  54 /  20  30  10  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  79  55  80  56 /  30  30  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  82  57  82  58 /  30  40  10  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  87  62  85  62 /  30  40  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  78  57  77  57 /  50  50  30  20
CAPULIN.........................  79  54  80  55 /  20  20  20  10
RATON...........................  83  53  84  52 /  20  20  10  10
SPRINGER........................  83  53  84  53 /  20  20  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  78  52  80  52 /  40  30  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  86  61  87  61 /  20  10   0   5
ROY.............................  82  56  84  57 /  30  20  10  10
CONCHAS.........................  89  63  90  63 /  20  20   5  10
SANTA ROSA......................  89  62  89  62 /  20  40  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  91  63  91  63 /  20  20   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  90  63  89  62 /  20  30  10   5
PORTALES........................  91  64  90  63 /  20  30  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  91  64  90  63 /  20  30  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  95  67  94  66 /  20  30  10  10
PICACHO.........................  88  61  87  61 /  40  40  10  10
ELK.............................  82  60  81  59 /  60  40  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50



000
FXUS65 KABQ 280933
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
333 AM MDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER
THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. SOME STORMS WILL CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. THE
HIGHER STORM COVERAGE WILL SHIFT WESTWARD DURING THE WEEKEND AND
FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WESTWARD TO THE ARIZONA STATE LINE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. A PACIFIC TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY DRAW CLOSER TO
THE AREA DURING EARLY NEXT WEEK AND SHIFT THE MAIN MOISTURE AND
RAIN FOCUS A LITTLE FURTHER EAST ACROSS THE STATE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HAS BROUGHT HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND MOISTURE
LEVELS TO PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL GET SHUNTED WESTWARD DURING THE DAY PERIOD
BASED ON THE GFS/NAM BOUNDARY LAYER WIND FLOW FORECASTS. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE UPSLOPE FLOW SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTNS
AND PROVIDE THE FOCUS FOR STORMS THERE. AIDED BY CONVECTION...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD DRIVE WESTWARD DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.
JUST MADE SMALL MODIFICATIONS TO THE POP FIELD TO REFLECT THE
LATEST STEERING FLOW FORECASTS AND UPSLOPE FLOW ENHANCEMENT. ALSO
ADDED FOG FOR THE MORENO VALLEY THIS MORNING BASED ON CURRENT
OBSERVATIONS. IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE NAM IS MUCH LESS
BULLISH THAN THE GFS IN TERMS OF QPF AMOUNTS. DECIDED TO FAVOR THE
GFS A BIT MORE...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE UPSLOPE AREAS.

THE CENTER OF THE MID LEVEL HIGH SHOULD RETURN TO THE STATE ON
SATURDAY. STEERING FLOWS WILL BE SLOW AND A SLIGHTLY DRIER/MORE
STABLE REGIME SHOULD ENTER EASTERN AREAS AND LIMIT CONVECTION
THERE. THE MAIN POP FOCUS WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND WEST OF THE
CENTRAL MTNS. PRECIP WATER VALUES SHOULD BE TOO SIGNIFICANT AND
EXPECT THE NORMAL DIURNAL CONVECTION OVER THE MTNS.

THE APPROACHING PACIFIC TROUGH SHOULD SHARPEN THE MOISTURE
GRADIENT BETWEEN AZ/NM SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. SUSPECT THIS WILL AID
AND FOCUS CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD TO HALF. THE
STEERING FLOW SHOULD ALSO GRADUALLY TREND MORE WEST TO EAST AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. DIDNT MAKE TOO MANY CHANGES IN THE POP FIELD
ALTHOUGH DID INCREASE VALUES OVER THE MTNS.

THE PAC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOME AND REFORM FURTHER WEST
OF THE STATE MON/TUE. IT APPEARS THAT SOME SORT OF PARTIAL OR
PSEUDOMONSOONAL FLOW WOULD REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF THE STATE
DURING THIS PERIOD AND HELP FUEL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. THE MODELS
ARENT EXCITED ABOUT WIDESPREAD HEAVY QPF RESULTS AT THIS TIME BUT
SUSPECT THAT COULD CHANGE DEPENDING ON HOW THE PAC TROUGH REFORMS
TO THE WEST. EVENTUALLY THE APPROACH OF THE TROUGH WILL SHIFT THE
MAIN MOISTURE FOCUS EASTWARD AND RETURN BETTER CHANCES FOR STORMS
TO THE EAST.

IT APPEARS THAT THE MODELS ARE TRENDING TOWARDS A FALL LIKE
MONSOONAL TRANSITION WITH PAC TROUGHS TO THE WEST AND MONSOONAL
MOISTURE FLOWING OVER NEW MEXICO. AT SOME POINT THE STARS SHOULD
ALIGN AND ALLOW FOR A MORE SIGNIFICANT MONSOON BURST EVENT OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. STAY TUNED.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
BACK DOOR FRONT IS MOVING DOWN THE PLAINS EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS
WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE SOUTH AND WEST THROUGH THE PLAINS EARLY
TODAY...BACKING UP TO THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
UPSLOPE FLOW WILL AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN.  STORMS WILL GENERALLY MOVE SOUTH OR SOUTHWEST...
THOUGH STORMS ACROSS THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHLANDS WILL MOVE VERY
LITTLE AS THE UPPER HIGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF ACROSS SE AZ. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE.

CONVECTION ALONG/EAST OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL HELP FORCE THE
FRONT THROUGH THE GAPS OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN...PERHAPS PRODUCING
SOME GUSTY WINDS BELOW CANYONS IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY THIS
EVENING. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT TO AT LEAST THE
CONTDVD...IF NOT THE AZ BORDER. THIS WILL REPLENISH MOISTURE AT THE
LOW LEVELS ACROSS WESTERN NM AFTER IT WAS MIXED OUT DURING THE
AFTERNOON TODAY DUE TO MID LEVEL DRY AIR NUDGING INTO WESTERN NM.

THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL SET THE STAGE FOR INCREASED THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ACROSS WESTERN NM ON SATURDAY AFTN. LOCALIZED WETTING RAINS
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT. INCREASED STABILITY
ACROSS THE EAST WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

WESTERN NM LOOKS TO REMAIN FAVORED FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS DRAWN UP IS SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW ALOFT. MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE PLUME WILL GET TILTED
EASTWARD ON TUESDAY AS SOME DRIER AIR WORKS IN TO NORTHWEST NM.
THEREAFTER...MODELS CONTINUE TO DIVERGE ON SOLUTIONS. GFS NOW
SHOWING THE MONSOON PLUME REESTABLISHING ITSELF QUICKLY OVER WESTERN
NM ON WEDNESDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF SHOWS A MUCH DRIER SCENARIO. THIS
IS 180 DEGREES DIFFERENT THAN 12 HOURS AGO...SO CONTINUE TO EXPECT
SOME FORECAST CHANGES MID WEEK AND BEYOND.

VERY WEAK TRANSPORT WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF POOR VENTILATION
TODAY AND SATURDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL NM. VENTILATION
LOOKS TO IMPROVE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.


34

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND IT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AS WELL AS NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOW UP
NEAR KROW...THUS CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT KROW WILL BE
IMPACTED BY STORMS FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION ALONG
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL AID IN PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KABQ/KSAF LATE FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE LOWEST NEAR
KFMN/KGUP WHERE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL WORK INTO THE STATE.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  88  59  90  60 /   5   5  10  20
DULCE...........................  82  48  82  49 /  10  30  30  40
CUBA............................  81  52  81  53 /  20  30  30  40
GALLUP..........................  86  53  86  55 /  10  10  20  30
EL MORRO........................  82  52  81  52 /  20  20  30  40
GRANTS..........................  83  53  83  52 /  10  20  20  40
QUEMADO.........................  82  56  82  55 /  20  20  30  50
GLENWOOD........................  87  57  85  57 /  30  30  40  50
CHAMA...........................  77  47  77  48 /  40  40  40  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  81  58  81  58 /  30  40  40  40
PECOS...........................  77  56  79  55 /  60  50  50  40
CERRO/QUESTA....................  77  51  78  50 /  30  30  30  20
RED RIVER.......................  66  43  67  45 /  60  50  50  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  68  48  69  48 /  60  50  50  50
TAOS............................  80  49  80  49 /  20  20  20  20
MORA............................  73  52  74  51 /  60  40  40  40
ESPANOLA........................  85  55  85  55 /  20  30  20  20
SANTA FE........................  81  58  81  58 /  40  40  30  20
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  84  56  84  56 /  20  30  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  85  63  86  63 /  30  40  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  87  65  88  65 /  20  30  20  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  89  63  89  63 /  10  30  10  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  88  64  88  63 /  20  30  10  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  89  61  89  61 /  10  30  10  10
RIO RANCHO......................  88  63  88  63 /  20  30  20  20
SOCORRO.........................  90  63  89  64 /  10  30  10  10
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  81  57  81  58 /  40  40  40  40
TIJERAS.........................  83  57  83  58 /  40  40  40  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  82  53  83  54 /  20  30  10  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  79  55  80  56 /  30  30  20  20
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  82  57  82  58 /  30  40  10  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  87  62  85  62 /  30  40  20  20
RUIDOSO.........................  78  57  77  57 /  50  50  30  20
CAPULIN.........................  79  54  80  55 /  20  20  20  10
RATON...........................  83  53  84  52 /  20  20  10  10
SPRINGER........................  83  53  84  53 /  20  20  10  10
LAS VEGAS.......................  78  52  80  52 /  40  30  20  10
CLAYTON.........................  86  61  87  61 /  20  10   0   5
ROY.............................  82  56  84  57 /  30  20  10  10
CONCHAS.........................  89  63  90  63 /  20  20   5  10
SANTA ROSA......................  89  62  89  62 /  20  40  10  10
TUCUMCARI.......................  91  63  91  63 /  20  20   0   5
CLOVIS..........................  90  63  89  62 /  20  30  10   5
PORTALES........................  91  64  90  63 /  20  30  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  91  64  90  63 /  20  30  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  95  67  94  66 /  20  30  10  10
PICACHO.........................  88  61  87  61 /  40  40  10  10
ELK.............................  82  60  81  59 /  60  40  20  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

50




000
FXUS65 KABQ 280558 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1158 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND IT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AS WELL AS NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOW UP
NEAR KROW...THUS CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT KROW WILL BE
IMPACTED BY STORMS FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION ALONG
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL AID IN PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KABQ/KSAF LATE FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE LOWEST NEAR
KFMN/KGUP WHERE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL WORK INTO THE STATE.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...852 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.UPDATE...
FOCUSED GREATEST POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
NUDGED VALUES MUCH LOWER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WHERE STORMS
ALREADY DIMINISHED TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT THEN WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND CENTRAL AND WEST.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCH...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE AS FAR AS DAILY CLIMATOLOGY
IS CONCERNED. A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE-
LOADED ATMOSPHERE IS YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TODAY...BUT
VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MAKING FOR SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS
WITH POPCORN-TYPE STORMS FOR THE MOST-PART. SOME SMALL HAIL IS
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO DRYING IN THE UPPER/MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COMING INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MORE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES GIVEN SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE RISING
INTO THE MID 90S.

THE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE FRIDAY...THEN A BIT FURTHER
WEST SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINING ENHANCED STORM CHANCES BACK TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PWAT TRENDS WILL
GENERALLY BE DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS FOR LATE AUGUST. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
A TROUGHING PATTERN SETS-UP OVER THE PACIFIC NW...EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT
EASTWARD JOG OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANY DOWNTREND.
SO...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AND DRY AIR IS PUSHING
INTO NW NEW MEXICO. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO
NORTHEAST NM THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE
PUSHING WWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST FRIDAY
EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
DRY AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NW NM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. DESPITE THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDING OVER WRN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SW
FLOW NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS FORECAST TO TAP MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS RELATIVELY DEEP
TAP CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO NW
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...KEEPS
THE DEEP TAP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AREAS NORTH
OF I-40 ON THURSDAY. AT ANY RATE...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE LONG
THE DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VENTILATION RATES DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCAL
FAIR TO POOR RATES FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE
WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR RATES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 280558 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1158 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND IT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AS WELL AS NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOW UP
NEAR KROW...THUS CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT KROW WILL BE
IMPACTED BY STORMS FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION ALONG
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL AID IN PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KABQ/KSAF LATE FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE LOWEST NEAR
KFMN/KGUP WHERE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL WORK INTO THE STATE.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...852 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.UPDATE...
FOCUSED GREATEST POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
NUDGED VALUES MUCH LOWER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WHERE STORMS
ALREADY DIMINISHED TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT THEN WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND CENTRAL AND WEST.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCH...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE AS FAR AS DAILY CLIMATOLOGY
IS CONCERNED. A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE-
LOADED ATMOSPHERE IS YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TODAY...BUT
VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MAKING FOR SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS
WITH POPCORN-TYPE STORMS FOR THE MOST-PART. SOME SMALL HAIL IS
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO DRYING IN THE UPPER/MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COMING INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MORE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES GIVEN SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE RISING
INTO THE MID 90S.

THE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE FRIDAY...THEN A BIT FURTHER
WEST SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINING ENHANCED STORM CHANCES BACK TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PWAT TRENDS WILL
GENERALLY BE DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS FOR LATE AUGUST. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
A TROUGHING PATTERN SETS-UP OVER THE PACIFIC NW...EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT
EASTWARD JOG OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANY DOWNTREND.
SO...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AND DRY AIR IS PUSHING
INTO NW NEW MEXICO. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO
NORTHEAST NM THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE
PUSHING WWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST FRIDAY
EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
DRY AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NW NM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. DESPITE THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDING OVER WRN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SW
FLOW NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS FORECAST TO TAP MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS RELATIVELY DEEP
TAP CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO NW
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...KEEPS
THE DEEP TAP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AREAS NORTH
OF I-40 ON THURSDAY. AT ANY RATE...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE LONG
THE DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VENTILATION RATES DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCAL
FAIR TO POOR RATES FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE
WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR RATES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 280558 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1158 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND IT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AS WELL AS NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOW UP
NEAR KROW...THUS CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT KROW WILL BE
IMPACTED BY STORMS FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION ALONG
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL AID IN PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KABQ/KSAF LATE FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE LOWEST NEAR
KFMN/KGUP WHERE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL WORK INTO THE STATE.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...852 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.UPDATE...
FOCUSED GREATEST POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
NUDGED VALUES MUCH LOWER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WHERE STORMS
ALREADY DIMINISHED TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT THEN WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND CENTRAL AND WEST.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCH...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE AS FAR AS DAILY CLIMATOLOGY
IS CONCERNED. A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE-
LOADED ATMOSPHERE IS YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TODAY...BUT
VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MAKING FOR SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS
WITH POPCORN-TYPE STORMS FOR THE MOST-PART. SOME SMALL HAIL IS
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO DRYING IN THE UPPER/MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COMING INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MORE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES GIVEN SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE RISING
INTO THE MID 90S.

THE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE FRIDAY...THEN A BIT FURTHER
WEST SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINING ENHANCED STORM CHANCES BACK TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PWAT TRENDS WILL
GENERALLY BE DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS FOR LATE AUGUST. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
A TROUGHING PATTERN SETS-UP OVER THE PACIFIC NW...EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT
EASTWARD JOG OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANY DOWNTREND.
SO...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AND DRY AIR IS PUSHING
INTO NW NEW MEXICO. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO
NORTHEAST NM THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE
PUSHING WWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST FRIDAY
EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
DRY AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NW NM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. DESPITE THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDING OVER WRN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SW
FLOW NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS FORECAST TO TAP MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS RELATIVELY DEEP
TAP CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO NW
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...KEEPS
THE DEEP TAP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AREAS NORTH
OF I-40 ON THURSDAY. AT ANY RATE...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE LONG
THE DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VENTILATION RATES DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCAL
FAIR TO POOR RATES FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE
WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR RATES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 280558 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1158 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SLIDE DOWN THE PLAINS
OVERNIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A STRAY THUNDERSTORM WILL
DEVELOP BEHIND IT. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL.
SHRA/TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN AS WELL AS NEAR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FRIDAY AFTN. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOW UP
NEAR KROW...THUS CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH THAT KROW WILL BE
IMPACTED BY STORMS FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. OTHERWISE...CONVECTION ALONG
THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN WILL AID IN PUSHING THE FRONT THRU THE GAPS
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. GUSTY CANYON WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE AT
KABQ/KSAF LATE FRIDAY AFTN/EVE. TSRA CHANCES WILL BE LOWEST NEAR
KFMN/KGUP WHERE DRIER MID LEVEL AIR WILL WORK INTO THE STATE.

34

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...852 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.UPDATE...
FOCUSED GREATEST POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
NUDGED VALUES MUCH LOWER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WHERE STORMS
ALREADY DIMINISHED TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT THEN WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND CENTRAL AND WEST.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCH...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE AS FAR AS DAILY CLIMATOLOGY
IS CONCERNED. A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE-
LOADED ATMOSPHERE IS YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TODAY...BUT
VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MAKING FOR SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS
WITH POPCORN-TYPE STORMS FOR THE MOST-PART. SOME SMALL HAIL IS
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO DRYING IN THE UPPER/MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COMING INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MORE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES GIVEN SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE RISING
INTO THE MID 90S.

THE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE FRIDAY...THEN A BIT FURTHER
WEST SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINING ENHANCED STORM CHANCES BACK TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PWAT TRENDS WILL
GENERALLY BE DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS FOR LATE AUGUST. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
A TROUGHING PATTERN SETS-UP OVER THE PACIFIC NW...EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT
EASTWARD JOG OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANY DOWNTREND.
SO...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AND DRY AIR IS PUSHING
INTO NW NEW MEXICO. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO
NORTHEAST NM THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE
PUSHING WWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST FRIDAY
EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
DRY AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NW NM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. DESPITE THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDING OVER WRN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SW
FLOW NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS FORECAST TO TAP MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS RELATIVELY DEEP
TAP CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO NW
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...KEEPS
THE DEEP TAP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AREAS NORTH
OF I-40 ON THURSDAY. AT ANY RATE...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE LONG
THE DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VENTILATION RATES DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCAL
FAIR TO POOR RATES FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE
WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR RATES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 280252 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
852 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOCUSED GREATEST POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
NUDGED VALUES MUCH LOWER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WHERE STORMS
ALREADY DIMINISHED TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...528 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. ISOLATED
STORMS THIS EVENING MAY COME CLOSE TO KTCC...KGUP AND PERHAPS
KROW...BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST TO REMAIN CLEAR OF TERMINALS. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOSTLY LIKELY TO IMPACT KLVS
INITIALLY...THEN KROW AND PERHAPS KSAF/KABQ/KAEG BY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. MVFR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH STORMS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT THEN WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND CENTRAL AND WEST.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCH...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE AS FAR AS DAILY CLIMATOLOGY
IS CONCERNED. A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE-
LOADED ATMOSPHERE IS YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TODAY...BUT
VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MAKING FOR SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS
WITH POPCORN-TYPE STORMS FOR THE MOST-PART. SOME SMALL HAIL IS
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO DRYING IN THE UPPER/MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COMING INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MORE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES GIVEN SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE RISING
INTO THE MID 90S.

THE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE FRIDAY...THEN A BIT FURTHER
WEST SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINING ENHANCED STORM CHANCES BACK TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PWAT TRENDS WILL
GENERALLY BE DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS FOR LATE AUGUST. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
A TROUGHING PATTERN SETS-UP OVER THE PACIFIC NW...EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT
EASTWARD JOG OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANY DOWNTREND.
SO...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AND DRY AIR IS PUSHING
INTO NW NEW MEXICO. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO
NORTHEAST NM THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE
PUSHING WWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST FRIDAY
EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
DRY AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NW NM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. DESPITE THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDING OVER WRN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SW
FLOW NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS FORECAST TO TAP MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS RELATIVELY DEEP
TAP CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO NW
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...KEEPS
THE DEEP TAP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AREAS NORTH
OF I-40 ON THURSDAY. AT ANY RATE...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE LONG
THE DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VENTILATION RATES DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCAL
FAIR TO POOR RATES FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE
WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR RATES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 280252 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
852 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOCUSED GREATEST POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
NUDGED VALUES MUCH LOWER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WHERE STORMS
ALREADY DIMINISHED TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...528 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. ISOLATED
STORMS THIS EVENING MAY COME CLOSE TO KTCC...KGUP AND PERHAPS
KROW...BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST TO REMAIN CLEAR OF TERMINALS. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOSTLY LIKELY TO IMPACT KLVS
INITIALLY...THEN KROW AND PERHAPS KSAF/KABQ/KAEG BY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. MVFR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH STORMS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT THEN WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND CENTRAL AND WEST.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCH...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE AS FAR AS DAILY CLIMATOLOGY
IS CONCERNED. A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE-
LOADED ATMOSPHERE IS YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TODAY...BUT
VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MAKING FOR SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS
WITH POPCORN-TYPE STORMS FOR THE MOST-PART. SOME SMALL HAIL IS
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO DRYING IN THE UPPER/MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COMING INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MORE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES GIVEN SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE RISING
INTO THE MID 90S.

THE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE FRIDAY...THEN A BIT FURTHER
WEST SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINING ENHANCED STORM CHANCES BACK TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PWAT TRENDS WILL
GENERALLY BE DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS FOR LATE AUGUST. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
A TROUGHING PATTERN SETS-UP OVER THE PACIFIC NW...EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT
EASTWARD JOG OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANY DOWNTREND.
SO...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AND DRY AIR IS PUSHING
INTO NW NEW MEXICO. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO
NORTHEAST NM THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE
PUSHING WWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST FRIDAY
EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
DRY AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NW NM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. DESPITE THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDING OVER WRN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SW
FLOW NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS FORECAST TO TAP MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS RELATIVELY DEEP
TAP CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO NW
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...KEEPS
THE DEEP TAP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AREAS NORTH
OF I-40 ON THURSDAY. AT ANY RATE...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE LONG
THE DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VENTILATION RATES DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCAL
FAIR TO POOR RATES FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE
WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR RATES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 280252 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
852 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOCUSED GREATEST POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
NUDGED VALUES MUCH LOWER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WHERE STORMS
ALREADY DIMINISHED TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...528 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. ISOLATED
STORMS THIS EVENING MAY COME CLOSE TO KTCC...KGUP AND PERHAPS
KROW...BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST TO REMAIN CLEAR OF TERMINALS. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOSTLY LIKELY TO IMPACT KLVS
INITIALLY...THEN KROW AND PERHAPS KSAF/KABQ/KAEG BY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. MVFR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH STORMS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT THEN WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND CENTRAL AND WEST.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCH...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE AS FAR AS DAILY CLIMATOLOGY
IS CONCERNED. A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE-
LOADED ATMOSPHERE IS YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TODAY...BUT
VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MAKING FOR SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS
WITH POPCORN-TYPE STORMS FOR THE MOST-PART. SOME SMALL HAIL IS
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO DRYING IN THE UPPER/MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COMING INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MORE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES GIVEN SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE RISING
INTO THE MID 90S.

THE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE FRIDAY...THEN A BIT FURTHER
WEST SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINING ENHANCED STORM CHANCES BACK TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PWAT TRENDS WILL
GENERALLY BE DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS FOR LATE AUGUST. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
A TROUGHING PATTERN SETS-UP OVER THE PACIFIC NW...EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT
EASTWARD JOG OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANY DOWNTREND.
SO...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AND DRY AIR IS PUSHING
INTO NW NEW MEXICO. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO
NORTHEAST NM THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE
PUSHING WWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST FRIDAY
EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
DRY AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NW NM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. DESPITE THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDING OVER WRN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SW
FLOW NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS FORECAST TO TAP MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS RELATIVELY DEEP
TAP CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO NW
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...KEEPS
THE DEEP TAP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AREAS NORTH
OF I-40 ON THURSDAY. AT ANY RATE...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE LONG
THE DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VENTILATION RATES DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCAL
FAIR TO POOR RATES FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE
WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR RATES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 280252 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
852 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.UPDATE...
FOCUSED GREATEST POPS OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL PLAINS
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT SAGS SOUTH INTO THE AREA.
NUDGED VALUES MUCH LOWER FOR CENTRAL AND WESTERN NM WHERE STORMS
ALREADY DIMINISHED TO MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER.

GUYER

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...528 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. ISOLATED
STORMS THIS EVENING MAY COME CLOSE TO KTCC...KGUP AND PERHAPS
KROW...BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST TO REMAIN CLEAR OF TERMINALS. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOSTLY LIKELY TO IMPACT KLVS
INITIALLY...THEN KROW AND PERHAPS KSAF/KABQ/KAEG BY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. MVFR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH STORMS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT THEN WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND CENTRAL AND WEST.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCH...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE AS FAR AS DAILY CLIMATOLOGY
IS CONCERNED. A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE-
LOADED ATMOSPHERE IS YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TODAY...BUT
VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MAKING FOR SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS
WITH POPCORN-TYPE STORMS FOR THE MOST-PART. SOME SMALL HAIL IS
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO DRYING IN THE UPPER/MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COMING INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MORE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES GIVEN SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE RISING
INTO THE MID 90S.

THE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE FRIDAY...THEN A BIT FURTHER
WEST SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINING ENHANCED STORM CHANCES BACK TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PWAT TRENDS WILL
GENERALLY BE DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS FOR LATE AUGUST. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
A TROUGHING PATTERN SETS-UP OVER THE PACIFIC NW...EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT
EASTWARD JOG OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANY DOWNTREND.
SO...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AND DRY AIR IS PUSHING
INTO NW NEW MEXICO. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO
NORTHEAST NM THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE
PUSHING WWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST FRIDAY
EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
DRY AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NW NM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. DESPITE THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDING OVER WRN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SW
FLOW NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS FORECAST TO TAP MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS RELATIVELY DEEP
TAP CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO NW
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...KEEPS
THE DEEP TAP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AREAS NORTH
OF I-40 ON THURSDAY. AT ANY RATE...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE LONG
THE DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VENTILATION RATES DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCAL
FAIR TO POOR RATES FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE
WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR RATES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 272328 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
528 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. ISOLATED
STORMS THIS EVENING MAY COME CLOSE TO KTCC...KGUP AND PERHAPS
KROW...BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST TO REMAIN CLEAR OF TERMINALS. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOSTLY LIKELY TO IMPACT KLVS
INITIALLY...THEN KROW AND PERHAPS KSAF/KABQ/KAEG BY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. MVFR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH STORMS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT THEN WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND CENTRAL AND WEST.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCH...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE AS FAR AS DAILY CLIMATOLOGY
IS CONCERNED. A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE-
LOADED ATMOSPHERE IS YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TODAY...BUT
VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MAKING FOR SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS
WITH POPCORN-TYPE STORMS FOR THE MOST-PART. SOME SMALL HAIL IS
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO DRYING IN THE UPPER/MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COMING INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MORE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES GIVEN SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE RISING
INTO THE MID 90S.

THE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE FRIDAY...THEN A BIT FURTHER
WEST SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINING ENHANCED STORM CHANCES BACK TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PWAT TRENDS WILL
GENERALLY BE DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS FOR LATE AUGUST. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
A TROUGHING PATTERN SETS-UP OVER THE PACIFIC NW...EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT
EASTWARD JOG OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANY DOWNTREND.
SO...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AND DRY AIR IS PUSHING
INTO NW NEW MEXICO. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO
NORTHEAST NM THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE
PUSHING WWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST FRIDAY
EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
DRY AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NW NM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. DESPITE THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDING OVER WRN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SW
FLOW NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS FORECAST TO TAP MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS RELATIVELY DEEP
TAP CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO NW
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...KEEPS
THE DEEP TAP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AREAS NORTH
OF I-40 ON THURSDAY. AT ANY RATE...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE LONG
THE DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VENTILATION RATES DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCAL
FAIR TO POOR RATES FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE
WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR RATES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

42



000
FXUS65 KABQ 272328 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
528 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. ISOLATED
STORMS THIS EVENING MAY COME CLOSE TO KTCC...KGUP AND PERHAPS
KROW...BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST TO REMAIN CLEAR OF TERMINALS. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOSTLY LIKELY TO IMPACT KLVS
INITIALLY...THEN KROW AND PERHAPS KSAF/KABQ/KAEG BY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. MVFR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH STORMS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT THEN WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND CENTRAL AND WEST.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCH...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE AS FAR AS DAILY CLIMATOLOGY
IS CONCERNED. A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE-
LOADED ATMOSPHERE IS YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TODAY...BUT
VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MAKING FOR SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS
WITH POPCORN-TYPE STORMS FOR THE MOST-PART. SOME SMALL HAIL IS
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO DRYING IN THE UPPER/MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COMING INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MORE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES GIVEN SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE RISING
INTO THE MID 90S.

THE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE FRIDAY...THEN A BIT FURTHER
WEST SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINING ENHANCED STORM CHANCES BACK TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PWAT TRENDS WILL
GENERALLY BE DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS FOR LATE AUGUST. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
A TROUGHING PATTERN SETS-UP OVER THE PACIFIC NW...EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT
EASTWARD JOG OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANY DOWNTREND.
SO...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AND DRY AIR IS PUSHING
INTO NW NEW MEXICO. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO
NORTHEAST NM THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE
PUSHING WWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST FRIDAY
EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
DRY AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NW NM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. DESPITE THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDING OVER WRN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SW
FLOW NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS FORECAST TO TAP MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS RELATIVELY DEEP
TAP CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO NW
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...KEEPS
THE DEEP TAP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AREAS NORTH
OF I-40 ON THURSDAY. AT ANY RATE...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE LONG
THE DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VENTILATION RATES DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCAL
FAIR TO POOR RATES FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE
WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR RATES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

42




000
FXUS65 KABQ 272328 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
528 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS PREVAIL AND ARE FORECAST TO
PERSIST THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD OUTSIDE OF SHOWERS/STORMS. ISOLATED
STORMS THIS EVENING MAY COME CLOSE TO KTCC...KGUP AND PERHAPS
KROW...BUT OTHERWISE FORECAST TO REMAIN CLEAR OF TERMINALS. STORMS
THAT DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON MOSTLY LIKELY TO IMPACT KLVS
INITIALLY...THEN KROW AND PERHAPS KSAF/KABQ/KAEG BY EARLY FRIDAY
EVENING. MVFR IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED WITH STORMS.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT THEN WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND CENTRAL AND WEST.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCH...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE AS FAR AS DAILY CLIMATOLOGY
IS CONCERNED. A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE-
LOADED ATMOSPHERE IS YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TODAY...BUT
VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MAKING FOR SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS
WITH POPCORN-TYPE STORMS FOR THE MOST-PART. SOME SMALL HAIL IS
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO DRYING IN THE UPPER/MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COMING INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MORE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES GIVEN SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE RISING
INTO THE MID 90S.

THE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE FRIDAY...THEN A BIT FURTHER
WEST SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINING ENHANCED STORM CHANCES BACK TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PWAT TRENDS WILL
GENERALLY BE DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS FOR LATE AUGUST. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
A TROUGHING PATTERN SETS-UP OVER THE PACIFIC NW...EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT
EASTWARD JOG OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANY DOWNTREND.
SO...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AND DRY AIR IS PUSHING
INTO NW NEW MEXICO. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO
NORTHEAST NM THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE
PUSHING WWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST FRIDAY
EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
DRY AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NW NM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. DESPITE THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDING OVER WRN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SW
FLOW NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS FORECAST TO TAP MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS RELATIVELY DEEP
TAP CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO NW
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...KEEPS
THE DEEP TAP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AREAS NORTH
OF I-40 ON THURSDAY. AT ANY RATE...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE LONG
THE DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VENTILATION RATES DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCAL
FAIR TO POOR RATES FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE
WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR RATES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

42



000
FXUS65 KABQ 272052
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
252 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT THEN WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND CENTRAL AND WEST.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCH...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE AS FAR AS DAILY CLIMATOLOGY
IS CONCERNED. A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE-
LOADED ATMOSPHERE IS YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TODAY...BUT
VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MAKING FOR SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS
WITH POPCORN-TYPE STORMS FOR THE MOST-PART. SOME SMALL HAIL IS
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO DRYING IN THE UPPER/MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COMING INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MORE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES GIVEN SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE RISING
INTO THE MID 90S.

THE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE FRIDAY...THEN A BIT FURTHER
WEST SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINING ENHANCED STORM CHANCES BACK TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PWAT TRENDS WILL
GENERALLY BE DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS FOR LATE AUGUST. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
A TROUGHING PATTERN SETS-UP OVER THE PACIFIC NW...EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT
EASTWARD JOG OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANY DOWNTREND.
SO...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AND DRY AIR IS PUSHING
INTO NW NEW MEXICO. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO
NORTHEAST NM THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE
PUSHING WWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST FRIDAY
EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
DRY AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NW NM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. DESPITE THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDING OVER WRN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SW
FLOW NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS FORECAST TO TAP MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS RELATIVELY DEEP
TAP CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO NW
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...KEEPS
THE DEEP TAP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AREAS NORTH
OF I-40 ON THURSDAY. AT ANY RATE...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE LONG
THE DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VENTILATION RATES DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCAL
FAIR TO POOR RATES FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE
WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR RATES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER 18Z AND MOVE FROM
W TO E UNTIL APPROX 21Z THEN NW TO SE THEREAFTER. FAVORED AREA
FOR STORMS EXPECTED ALONG A SWATH FROM CATRON COUNTY NEWD TO THE
NE AND E-CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT MTS TO OCCASIONALLY BE OBSCURED
ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER TSMS. SFC WND
GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AS WELL. A RATHER WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SWD INTO NE NM AROUND SUNSET AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  57  89  59  91 /   5   5   5  20
DULCE...........................  48  83  49  83 /  20  20  20  30
CUBA............................  51  85  52  84 /  20  30  40  30
GALLUP..........................  52  87  53  88 /  20  20  20  20
EL MORRO........................  50  84  51  83 /  30  20  20  50
GRANTS..........................  51  85  52  85 /  20  10  20  30
QUEMADO.........................  56  84  56  83 /  20  30  20  40
GLENWOOD........................  56  88  56  86 /  30  40  30  50
CHAMA...........................  45  79  47  79 /  30  30  40  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  59  82  58  83 /  30  30  40  50
PECOS...........................  57  78  57  80 /  20  50  50  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  51  78  51  79 /  30  30  30  40
RED RIVER.......................  46  68  41  68 /  40  50  50  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  51  69  48  69 /  30  50  50  50
TAOS............................  48  81  48  81 /  20  30  20  30
MORA............................  53  73  52  73 /  20  50  40  50
ESPANOLA........................  55  85  55  85 /  20  20  20  20
SANTA FE........................  59  83  59  84 /  20  30  40  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  57  85  56  86 /  20  20  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  86  64  87 /  20  30  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  64  87  65  89 /  20  20  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  61  89  62  90 /  20  10  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  88  64  89 /  20  20  30  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  61  90  61  90 /  20  10  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  64  88  64  89 /  20  20  30  20
SOCORRO.........................  64  91  64  91 /  20  10  30  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  82  57  81 /  20  30  50  40
TIJERAS.........................  56  83  56  83 /  20  30  50  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  83  52  83 /  20  20  30  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  56  80  55  81 /  20  30  40  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  83  58  83 /  20  30  50  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  88  63  87 /  20  30  40  20
RUIDOSO.........................  58  80  58  79 /  30  50  40  40
CAPULIN.........................  55  80  53  80 /  50  20  20  20
RATON...........................  54  84  52  85 /  30  20  20  20
SPRINGER........................  53  84  53  84 /  20  20  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  55  79  52  80 /  20  30  40  20
CLAYTON.........................  62  87  61  89 /  40  10  20   5
ROY.............................  59  84  56  85 /  20  20  30  20
CONCHAS.........................  64  90  63  90 /  40  20  20   5
SANTA ROSA......................  63  89  62  89 /  30  20  30   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  65  92  63  92 /  30  20  20   5
CLOVIS..........................  64  90  63  90 /  20  20  30   5
PORTALES........................  66  91  64  91 /  20  30  30   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  92  64  91 /  20  20  30   5
ROSWELL.........................  66  96  67  95 /  20  20  30  10
PICACHO.........................  62  90  62  89 /  30  30  30  20
ELK.............................  60  84  60  84 /  30  50  40  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11



000
FXUS65 KABQ 272052
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
252 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A BACKDOOR FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHWEST ACROSS EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT THEN WEST INTO CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE AREA LATE FRIDAY...
ENHANCING CHANCES FOR STORMS THROUGH THE WEEKEND CENTRAL AND WEST.
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE NEXT WEEK WITH
DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS AND TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
12Z KABQ SOUNDING SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.17 INCH...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE
NORMAL AND NEAR THE 99TH PERCENTILE AS FAR AS DAILY CLIMATOLOGY
IS CONCERNED. A LITTLE DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH THE MOISTURE-
LOADED ATMOSPHERE IS YIELDING ANOTHER ROUND OF STORMS TODAY...BUT
VERY LITTLE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IS MAKING FOR SHORT-LIVED UPDRAFTS
WITH POPCORN-TYPE STORMS FOR THE MOST-PART. SOME SMALL HAIL IS
LIKELY WITH THESE STORMS DUE TO DRYING IN THE UPPER/MID LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE COMING INTO NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE AREA...WHICH
WILL MAKE FOR MORE IMPRESSIVE LAPSE RATES GIVEN SOME EVAPORATIVE
COOLING. STRONG/GUSTY WINDS LIKELY AS WELL...MAINLY ACROSS THE
EAST CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS WHERE SURFACE TEMPS ARE RISING
INTO THE MID 90S.

THE TROUGH EJECTING INTO THE CENTRAL U.S. PLAINS WILL SEND A
BACKDOOR FRONT DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...THEN WEST THROUGH THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN FRIDAY
EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL HELP TO ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE FRIDAY...THEN A BIT FURTHER
WEST SATURDAY BEFORE THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST OVER
THE STATE ON SUNDAY...BRINING ENHANCED STORM CHANCES BACK TO THE
RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. PWAT TRENDS WILL
GENERALLY BE DOWN DURING THIS PERIOD...BUT STILL FORECAST TO
REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL MOST AREAS FOR LATE AUGUST. TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

PLENTY OF MOISTURE WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH NEXT WEEK AS
A TROUGHING PATTERN SETS-UP OVER THE PACIFIC NW...EXTENDING SOUTH
ALONG THE WEST COAST. THIS PATTERN...COMBINED WITH A SLIGHT
EASTWARD JOG OF THE UPPER HIGH WILL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM NORTH
OVER NEW MEXICO THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY BEFORE ANY DOWNTREND.
SO...EXPECT DAILY ROUNDS OF STORMS WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY AT
OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TO PERSIST FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
FLOW ALOFT HAS BECOME NORTHWESTERLY TODAY AND DRY AIR IS PUSHING
INTO NW NEW MEXICO. THIS DRIER AIR IS EXPECTED TO KEEP MOST SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OR SO OF THE
STATE THIS EVENING. MOST ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL DROP INTO
NORTHEAST NM THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EASTERN
PLAINS OVERNIGHT. THE FRONT IS FORECAST TO STALL ALONG THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN DURING THE DAY FRIDAY BEFORE
PUSHING WWD INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND POINTS WEST FRIDAY
EVENING. STORMS WILL FAVOR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN AND ADJACENT HIGHLANDS...PARTICULARLY THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS.
DRY AIR EXPECTED TO WIN OUT OVER WEST-CENTRAL AND NW NM.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURNS TO WESTERN AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT...SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND NEAR THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED ACTIVITY IS LIKELY. DESPITE THE UPPER
HIGH BUILDING OVER WRN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY...SW
FLOW NEAR MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL IS FORECAST TO TAP MONSOON MOISTURE
FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA. ACCORDING TO THE GFS...THIS RELATIVELY DEEP
TAP CONTINUES INTO MONDAY BEFORE DRIER AIR STARTS TO WORK INTO NW
AND NORTH-CENTRAL NM TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. ECMWF...HOWEVER...KEEPS
THE DEEP TAP GOING THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEFORE DRYING OUT AREAS NORTH
OF I-40 ON THURSDAY. AT ANY RATE...AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS
EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW THE LONG
THE DEEPER MONSOON MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

VENTILATION RATES DIMINISH FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOCAL
FAIR TO POOR RATES FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE
WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR RATES POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER 18Z AND MOVE FROM
W TO E UNTIL APPROX 21Z THEN NW TO SE THEREAFTER. FAVORED AREA
FOR STORMS EXPECTED ALONG A SWATH FROM CATRON COUNTY NEWD TO THE
NE AND E-CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT MTS TO OCCASIONALLY BE OBSCURED
ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER TSMS. SFC WND
GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AS WELL. A RATHER WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SWD INTO NE NM AROUND SUNSET AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  57  89  59  91 /   5   5   5  20
DULCE...........................  48  83  49  83 /  20  20  20  30
CUBA............................  51  85  52  84 /  20  30  40  30
GALLUP..........................  52  87  53  88 /  20  20  20  20
EL MORRO........................  50  84  51  83 /  30  20  20  50
GRANTS..........................  51  85  52  85 /  20  10  20  30
QUEMADO.........................  56  84  56  83 /  20  30  20  40
GLENWOOD........................  56  88  56  86 /  30  40  30  50
CHAMA...........................  45  79  47  79 /  30  30  40  40
LOS ALAMOS......................  59  82  58  83 /  30  30  40  50
PECOS...........................  57  78  57  80 /  20  50  50  50
CERRO/QUESTA....................  51  78  51  79 /  30  30  30  40
RED RIVER.......................  46  68  41  68 /  40  50  50  50
ANGEL FIRE......................  51  69  48  69 /  30  50  50  50
TAOS............................  48  81  48  81 /  20  30  20  30
MORA............................  53  73  52  73 /  20  50  40  50
ESPANOLA........................  55  85  55  85 /  20  20  20  20
SANTA FE........................  59  83  59  84 /  20  30  40  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  57  85  56  86 /  20  20  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  62  86  64  87 /  20  30  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  64  87  65  89 /  20  20  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  61  89  62  90 /  20  10  30  20
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  63  88  64  89 /  20  20  30  20
LOS LUNAS.......................  61  90  61  90 /  20  10  30  20
RIO RANCHO......................  64  88  64  89 /  20  20  30  20
SOCORRO.........................  64  91  64  91 /  20  10  30  20
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  57  82  57  81 /  20  30  50  40
TIJERAS.........................  56  83  56  83 /  20  30  50  40
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  54  83  52  83 /  20  20  30  20
CLINES CORNERS..................  56  80  55  81 /  20  30  40  30
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  59  83  58  83 /  20  30  50  20
CARRIZOZO.......................  63  88  63  87 /  20  30  40  20
RUIDOSO.........................  58  80  58  79 /  30  50  40  40
CAPULIN.........................  55  80  53  80 /  50  20  20  20
RATON...........................  54  84  52  85 /  30  20  20  20
SPRINGER........................  53  84  53  84 /  20  20  20  20
LAS VEGAS.......................  55  79  52  80 /  20  30  40  20
CLAYTON.........................  62  87  61  89 /  40  10  20   5
ROY.............................  59  84  56  85 /  20  20  30  20
CONCHAS.........................  64  90  63  90 /  40  20  20   5
SANTA ROSA......................  63  89  62  89 /  30  20  30   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  65  92  63  92 /  30  20  20   5
CLOVIS..........................  64  90  63  90 /  20  20  30   5
PORTALES........................  66  91  64  91 /  20  30  30   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  65  92  64  91 /  20  20  30   5
ROSWELL.........................  66  96  67  95 /  20  20  30  10
PICACHO.........................  62  90  62  89 /  30  30  30  20
ELK.............................  60  84  60  84 /  30  50  40  20

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11




000
FXUS65 KABQ 271751 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1151 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER 18Z AND MOVE FROM
W TO E UNTIL APPROX 21Z THEN NW TO SE THEREAFTER. FAVORED AREA
FOR STORMS EXPECTED ALONG A SWATH FROM CATRON COUNTY NEWD TO THE
NE AND E-CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT MTS TO OCCASIONALLY BE OBSCURED
ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER TSMS. SFC WND
GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AS WELL. A RATHER WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SWD INTO NE NM AROUND SUNSET AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...336 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME IS TILTED EASTWARD. A
BACK DOOR FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO SLIDE THROUGH EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON FRIDAY. A HEALTHY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE
FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN NORTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROUND THE UPPER HIGH THIS MORNING.
NOW OVER COLORADO...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS TODAY. AS IT DOES SO...THE MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD TILT
EASTWARD...PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AS COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY. BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS SHOULD LIE FROM THE SW MTNS NEWD TO THE NE
PLAINS...THOUGH DO EXPECTED SOME STORMS TO ROLL OFF THE SC
MTNS/HIGHLANDS INTO THE PLAINS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...COULD SEE
SOME HEAVY RAIN...ESP ACROSS THE SW MTNS WHERE STORM MOTION WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST.

A BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED BY THE
AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG IT...WHICH BY MOST MODEL
ACCOUNTS...SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE EC SHOWS
IT SLOWING UP NEAR I-40. REGARDLESS...BEHIND IT...COOLER AND MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH TSTM DEVELOPMENT. UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN SHOULD IGNITE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THESE STORMS SHOULD AID IN THE SYNOPTIC FRONT PUSHING THRU THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRI AFTN/EVE.

MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT CLEAR TO THE AZ BORDER
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE SATURDAY ACROSS THE
WEST. ADDITIONALLY...THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL START TO
BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AS THE 7H HIGH CENTER
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NM.

5H HIGH LOOKS TO CENTER ITSELF OVER NM ON SUNDAY...BUT THE 7H HIGH
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NM. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN...SHIFTING BOTH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHS EASTWARD. THUS...A CONTINUED HEALTHY CROP OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUN THRU AT LEAST TUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM. BY WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN NM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SHEARS OUT AND SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH POTENTIALLY A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING BUT NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. SOME
DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO WORK INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER...BUT THIS
MAY HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON FRIDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WEST...AND ABOVE AVERAGE EAST BY A FEW
DEGREES. STORM MOTION WILL BE MOSTLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY...WHILE
A WEAK FRONT SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AND MAY
PRODUCE A RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST WIND INTO THE RGV. THIS SHOULD FOCUS
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE
FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF AVERAGE.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER NEW MEXICO
DURING THE WEEKEND AND ADOPT A SW TO NE ORIENTATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT A TAP OF MONSOON MOISTURE
DEVELOPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE PAC NW. CURRENTLY...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND
WETTING RAIN FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY.

NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
MIN HUMIDITIES MAY CRATER IN THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH DRY AIR CAN WORK INTO THE REGION BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
SHOULD REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERALL. VENT RATES GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TODAY THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH SOME FAIR TO POOR RATES
FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR
RATES POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11



000
FXUS65 KABQ 271751 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1151 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER 18Z AND MOVE FROM
W TO E UNTIL APPROX 21Z THEN NW TO SE THEREAFTER. FAVORED AREA
FOR STORMS EXPECTED ALONG A SWATH FROM CATRON COUNTY NEWD TO THE
NE AND E-CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT MTS TO OCCASIONALLY BE OBSCURED
ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER TSMS. SFC WND
GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AS WELL. A RATHER WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SWD INTO NE NM AROUND SUNSET AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...336 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME IS TILTED EASTWARD. A
BACK DOOR FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO SLIDE THROUGH EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON FRIDAY. A HEALTHY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE
FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN NORTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROUND THE UPPER HIGH THIS MORNING.
NOW OVER COLORADO...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS TODAY. AS IT DOES SO...THE MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD TILT
EASTWARD...PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AS COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY. BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS SHOULD LIE FROM THE SW MTNS NEWD TO THE NE
PLAINS...THOUGH DO EXPECTED SOME STORMS TO ROLL OFF THE SC
MTNS/HIGHLANDS INTO THE PLAINS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...COULD SEE
SOME HEAVY RAIN...ESP ACROSS THE SW MTNS WHERE STORM MOTION WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST.

A BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED BY THE
AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG IT...WHICH BY MOST MODEL
ACCOUNTS...SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE EC SHOWS
IT SLOWING UP NEAR I-40. REGARDLESS...BEHIND IT...COOLER AND MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH TSTM DEVELOPMENT. UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN SHOULD IGNITE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THESE STORMS SHOULD AID IN THE SYNOPTIC FRONT PUSHING THRU THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRI AFTN/EVE.

MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT CLEAR TO THE AZ BORDER
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE SATURDAY ACROSS THE
WEST. ADDITIONALLY...THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL START TO
BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AS THE 7H HIGH CENTER
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NM.

5H HIGH LOOKS TO CENTER ITSELF OVER NM ON SUNDAY...BUT THE 7H HIGH
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NM. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN...SHIFTING BOTH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHS EASTWARD. THUS...A CONTINUED HEALTHY CROP OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUN THRU AT LEAST TUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM. BY WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN NM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SHEARS OUT AND SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH POTENTIALLY A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING BUT NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. SOME
DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO WORK INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER...BUT THIS
MAY HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON FRIDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WEST...AND ABOVE AVERAGE EAST BY A FEW
DEGREES. STORM MOTION WILL BE MOSTLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY...WHILE
A WEAK FRONT SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AND MAY
PRODUCE A RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST WIND INTO THE RGV. THIS SHOULD FOCUS
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE
FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF AVERAGE.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER NEW MEXICO
DURING THE WEEKEND AND ADOPT A SW TO NE ORIENTATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT A TAP OF MONSOON MOISTURE
DEVELOPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE PAC NW. CURRENTLY...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND
WETTING RAIN FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY.

NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
MIN HUMIDITIES MAY CRATER IN THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH DRY AIR CAN WORK INTO THE REGION BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
SHOULD REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERALL. VENT RATES GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TODAY THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH SOME FAIR TO POOR RATES
FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR
RATES POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11




000
FXUS65 KABQ 271751 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1151 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
SCT SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP SHORTLY AFTER 18Z AND MOVE FROM
W TO E UNTIL APPROX 21Z THEN NW TO SE THEREAFTER. FAVORED AREA
FOR STORMS EXPECTED ALONG A SWATH FROM CATRON COUNTY NEWD TO THE
NE AND E-CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT MTS TO OCCASIONALLY BE OBSCURED
ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER TSMS. SFC WND
GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AS WELL. A RATHER WEAK BACKDOOR
FRONT/BOUNDARY WILL SLIDE SWD INTO NE NM AROUND SUNSET AND
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE ERN PLAINS OVERNIGHT.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...336 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME IS TILTED EASTWARD. A
BACK DOOR FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO SLIDE THROUGH EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON FRIDAY. A HEALTHY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE
FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN NORTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROUND THE UPPER HIGH THIS MORNING.
NOW OVER COLORADO...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS TODAY. AS IT DOES SO...THE MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD TILT
EASTWARD...PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AS COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY. BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS SHOULD LIE FROM THE SW MTNS NEWD TO THE NE
PLAINS...THOUGH DO EXPECTED SOME STORMS TO ROLL OFF THE SC
MTNS/HIGHLANDS INTO THE PLAINS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...COULD SEE
SOME HEAVY RAIN...ESP ACROSS THE SW MTNS WHERE STORM MOTION WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST.

A BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED BY THE
AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG IT...WHICH BY MOST MODEL
ACCOUNTS...SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE EC SHOWS
IT SLOWING UP NEAR I-40. REGARDLESS...BEHIND IT...COOLER AND MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH TSTM DEVELOPMENT. UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN SHOULD IGNITE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THESE STORMS SHOULD AID IN THE SYNOPTIC FRONT PUSHING THRU THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRI AFTN/EVE.

MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT CLEAR TO THE AZ BORDER
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE SATURDAY ACROSS THE
WEST. ADDITIONALLY...THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL START TO
BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AS THE 7H HIGH CENTER
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NM.

5H HIGH LOOKS TO CENTER ITSELF OVER NM ON SUNDAY...BUT THE 7H HIGH
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NM. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN...SHIFTING BOTH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHS EASTWARD. THUS...A CONTINUED HEALTHY CROP OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUN THRU AT LEAST TUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM. BY WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN NM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SHEARS OUT AND SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH POTENTIALLY A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING BUT NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. SOME
DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO WORK INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER...BUT THIS
MAY HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON FRIDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WEST...AND ABOVE AVERAGE EAST BY A FEW
DEGREES. STORM MOTION WILL BE MOSTLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY...WHILE
A WEAK FRONT SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AND MAY
PRODUCE A RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST WIND INTO THE RGV. THIS SHOULD FOCUS
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE
FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF AVERAGE.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER NEW MEXICO
DURING THE WEEKEND AND ADOPT A SW TO NE ORIENTATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT A TAP OF MONSOON MOISTURE
DEVELOPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE PAC NW. CURRENTLY...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND
WETTING RAIN FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY.

NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
MIN HUMIDITIES MAY CRATER IN THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH DRY AIR CAN WORK INTO THE REGION BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
SHOULD REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERALL. VENT RATES GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TODAY THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH SOME FAIR TO POOR RATES
FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR
RATES POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11



000
FXUS65 KABQ 271117 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
517 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLY A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER CENTRAL NM BEFORE 15Z AS
THEY SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPPER HIGH CENTER TO BE LOCATED OVER AZ
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NM. SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP AFT 18Z FROM SW TO NE OVER NM...AND MOVE TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN LCL MVFR CIGS
BEFORE 15Z AND AFT 18Z IN BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER
TSMS. SFC WND GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...336 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME IS TILTED EASTWARD. A
BACK DOOR FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO SLIDE THROUGH EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON FRIDAY. A HEALTHY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE
FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN NORTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROUND THE UPPER HIGH THIS MORNING.
NOW OVER COLORADO...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS TODAY. AS IT DOES SO...THE MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD TILT
EASTWARD...PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AS COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY. BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS SHOULD LIE FROM THE SW MTNS NEWD TO THE NE
PLAINS...THOUGH DO EXPECTED SOME STORMS TO ROLL OFF THE SC
MTNS/HIGHLANDS INTO THE PLAINS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...COULD SEE
SOME HEAVY RAIN...ESP ACROSS THE SW MTNS WHERE STORM MOTION WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST.

A BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED BY THE
AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG IT...WHICH BY MOST MODEL
ACCOUNTS...SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE EC SHOWS
IT SLOWING UP NEAR I-40. REGARDLESS...BEHIND IT...COOLER AND MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH TSTM DEVELOPMENT. UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN SHOULD IGNITE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THESE STORMS SHOULD AID IN THE SYNOPTIC FRONT PUSHING THRU THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRI AFTN/EVE.

MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT CLEAR TO THE AZ BORDER
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE SATURDAY ACROSS THE
WEST. ADDITIONALLY...THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL START TO
BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AS THE 7H HIGH CENTER
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NM.

5H HIGH LOOKS TO CENTER ITSELF OVER NM ON SUNDAY...BUT THE 7H HIGH
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NM. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN...SHIFTING BOTH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHS EASTWARD. THUS...A CONTINUED HEALTHY CROP OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUN THRU AT LEAST TUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM. BY WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN NM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SHEARS OUT AND SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH POTENTIALLY A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING BUT NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. SOME
DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO WORK INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER...BUT THIS
MAY HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON FRIDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WEST...AND ABOVE AVERAGE EAST BY A FEW
DEGREES. STORM MOTION WILL BE MOSTLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY...WHILE
A WEAK FRONT SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AND MAY
PRODUCE A RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST WIND INTO THE RGV. THIS SHOULD FOCUS
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE
FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF AVERAGE.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER NEW MEXICO
DURING THE WEEKEND AND ADOPT A SW TO NE ORIENTATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT A TAP OF MONSOON MOISTURE
DEVELOPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE PAC NW. CURRENTLY...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND
WETTING RAIN FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY.

NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
MIN HUMIDITIES MAY CRATER IN THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH DRY AIR CAN WORK INTO THE REGION BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
SHOULD REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERALL. VENT RATES GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TODAY THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH SOME FAIR TO POOR RATES
FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR
RATES POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 271117 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
517 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLY A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER CENTRAL NM BEFORE 15Z AS
THEY SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPPER HIGH CENTER TO BE LOCATED OVER AZ
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NM. SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP AFT 18Z FROM SW TO NE OVER NM...AND MOVE TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN LCL MVFR CIGS
BEFORE 15Z AND AFT 18Z IN BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER
TSMS. SFC WND GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...336 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME IS TILTED EASTWARD. A
BACK DOOR FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO SLIDE THROUGH EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON FRIDAY. A HEALTHY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE
FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN NORTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROUND THE UPPER HIGH THIS MORNING.
NOW OVER COLORADO...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS TODAY. AS IT DOES SO...THE MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD TILT
EASTWARD...PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AS COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY. BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS SHOULD LIE FROM THE SW MTNS NEWD TO THE NE
PLAINS...THOUGH DO EXPECTED SOME STORMS TO ROLL OFF THE SC
MTNS/HIGHLANDS INTO THE PLAINS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...COULD SEE
SOME HEAVY RAIN...ESP ACROSS THE SW MTNS WHERE STORM MOTION WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST.

A BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED BY THE
AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG IT...WHICH BY MOST MODEL
ACCOUNTS...SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE EC SHOWS
IT SLOWING UP NEAR I-40. REGARDLESS...BEHIND IT...COOLER AND MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH TSTM DEVELOPMENT. UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN SHOULD IGNITE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THESE STORMS SHOULD AID IN THE SYNOPTIC FRONT PUSHING THRU THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRI AFTN/EVE.

MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT CLEAR TO THE AZ BORDER
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE SATURDAY ACROSS THE
WEST. ADDITIONALLY...THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL START TO
BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AS THE 7H HIGH CENTER
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NM.

5H HIGH LOOKS TO CENTER ITSELF OVER NM ON SUNDAY...BUT THE 7H HIGH
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NM. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN...SHIFTING BOTH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHS EASTWARD. THUS...A CONTINUED HEALTHY CROP OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUN THRU AT LEAST TUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM. BY WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN NM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SHEARS OUT AND SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH POTENTIALLY A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING BUT NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. SOME
DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO WORK INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER...BUT THIS
MAY HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON FRIDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WEST...AND ABOVE AVERAGE EAST BY A FEW
DEGREES. STORM MOTION WILL BE MOSTLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY...WHILE
A WEAK FRONT SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AND MAY
PRODUCE A RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST WIND INTO THE RGV. THIS SHOULD FOCUS
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE
FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF AVERAGE.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER NEW MEXICO
DURING THE WEEKEND AND ADOPT A SW TO NE ORIENTATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT A TAP OF MONSOON MOISTURE
DEVELOPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE PAC NW. CURRENTLY...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND
WETTING RAIN FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY.

NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
MIN HUMIDITIES MAY CRATER IN THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH DRY AIR CAN WORK INTO THE REGION BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
SHOULD REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERALL. VENT RATES GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TODAY THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH SOME FAIR TO POOR RATES
FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR
RATES POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 271117 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
517 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLY A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER CENTRAL NM BEFORE 15Z AS
THEY SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPPER HIGH CENTER TO BE LOCATED OVER AZ
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NM. SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP AFT 18Z FROM SW TO NE OVER NM...AND MOVE TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN LCL MVFR CIGS
BEFORE 15Z AND AFT 18Z IN BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER
TSMS. SFC WND GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...336 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME IS TILTED EASTWARD. A
BACK DOOR FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO SLIDE THROUGH EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON FRIDAY. A HEALTHY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE
FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN NORTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROUND THE UPPER HIGH THIS MORNING.
NOW OVER COLORADO...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS TODAY. AS IT DOES SO...THE MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD TILT
EASTWARD...PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AS COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY. BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS SHOULD LIE FROM THE SW MTNS NEWD TO THE NE
PLAINS...THOUGH DO EXPECTED SOME STORMS TO ROLL OFF THE SC
MTNS/HIGHLANDS INTO THE PLAINS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...COULD SEE
SOME HEAVY RAIN...ESP ACROSS THE SW MTNS WHERE STORM MOTION WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST.

A BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED BY THE
AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG IT...WHICH BY MOST MODEL
ACCOUNTS...SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE EC SHOWS
IT SLOWING UP NEAR I-40. REGARDLESS...BEHIND IT...COOLER AND MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH TSTM DEVELOPMENT. UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN SHOULD IGNITE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THESE STORMS SHOULD AID IN THE SYNOPTIC FRONT PUSHING THRU THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRI AFTN/EVE.

MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT CLEAR TO THE AZ BORDER
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE SATURDAY ACROSS THE
WEST. ADDITIONALLY...THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL START TO
BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AS THE 7H HIGH CENTER
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NM.

5H HIGH LOOKS TO CENTER ITSELF OVER NM ON SUNDAY...BUT THE 7H HIGH
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NM. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN...SHIFTING BOTH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHS EASTWARD. THUS...A CONTINUED HEALTHY CROP OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUN THRU AT LEAST TUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM. BY WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN NM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SHEARS OUT AND SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH POTENTIALLY A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING BUT NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. SOME
DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO WORK INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER...BUT THIS
MAY HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON FRIDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WEST...AND ABOVE AVERAGE EAST BY A FEW
DEGREES. STORM MOTION WILL BE MOSTLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY...WHILE
A WEAK FRONT SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AND MAY
PRODUCE A RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST WIND INTO THE RGV. THIS SHOULD FOCUS
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE
FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF AVERAGE.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER NEW MEXICO
DURING THE WEEKEND AND ADOPT A SW TO NE ORIENTATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT A TAP OF MONSOON MOISTURE
DEVELOPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE PAC NW. CURRENTLY...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND
WETTING RAIN FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY.

NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
MIN HUMIDITIES MAY CRATER IN THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH DRY AIR CAN WORK INTO THE REGION BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
SHOULD REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERALL. VENT RATES GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TODAY THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH SOME FAIR TO POOR RATES
FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR
RATES POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 271117 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
517 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLY A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER CENTRAL NM BEFORE 15Z AS
THEY SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPPER HIGH CENTER TO BE LOCATED OVER AZ
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NM. SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP AFT 18Z FROM SW TO NE OVER NM...AND MOVE TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN LCL MVFR CIGS
BEFORE 15Z AND AFT 18Z IN BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER
TSMS. SFC WND GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...336 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME IS TILTED EASTWARD. A
BACK DOOR FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO SLIDE THROUGH EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON FRIDAY. A HEALTHY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE
FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN NORTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROUND THE UPPER HIGH THIS MORNING.
NOW OVER COLORADO...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS TODAY. AS IT DOES SO...THE MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD TILT
EASTWARD...PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AS COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY. BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS SHOULD LIE FROM THE SW MTNS NEWD TO THE NE
PLAINS...THOUGH DO EXPECTED SOME STORMS TO ROLL OFF THE SC
MTNS/HIGHLANDS INTO THE PLAINS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...COULD SEE
SOME HEAVY RAIN...ESP ACROSS THE SW MTNS WHERE STORM MOTION WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST.

A BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED BY THE
AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG IT...WHICH BY MOST MODEL
ACCOUNTS...SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE EC SHOWS
IT SLOWING UP NEAR I-40. REGARDLESS...BEHIND IT...COOLER AND MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH TSTM DEVELOPMENT. UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN SHOULD IGNITE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THESE STORMS SHOULD AID IN THE SYNOPTIC FRONT PUSHING THRU THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRI AFTN/EVE.

MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT CLEAR TO THE AZ BORDER
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE SATURDAY ACROSS THE
WEST. ADDITIONALLY...THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL START TO
BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AS THE 7H HIGH CENTER
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NM.

5H HIGH LOOKS TO CENTER ITSELF OVER NM ON SUNDAY...BUT THE 7H HIGH
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NM. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN...SHIFTING BOTH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHS EASTWARD. THUS...A CONTINUED HEALTHY CROP OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUN THRU AT LEAST TUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM. BY WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN NM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SHEARS OUT AND SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH POTENTIALLY A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING BUT NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. SOME
DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO WORK INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER...BUT THIS
MAY HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON FRIDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WEST...AND ABOVE AVERAGE EAST BY A FEW
DEGREES. STORM MOTION WILL BE MOSTLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY...WHILE
A WEAK FRONT SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AND MAY
PRODUCE A RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST WIND INTO THE RGV. THIS SHOULD FOCUS
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE
FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF AVERAGE.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER NEW MEXICO
DURING THE WEEKEND AND ADOPT A SW TO NE ORIENTATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT A TAP OF MONSOON MOISTURE
DEVELOPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE PAC NW. CURRENTLY...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND
WETTING RAIN FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY.

NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
MIN HUMIDITIES MAY CRATER IN THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH DRY AIR CAN WORK INTO THE REGION BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
SHOULD REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERALL. VENT RATES GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TODAY THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH SOME FAIR TO POOR RATES
FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR
RATES POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$




000
FXUS65 KABQ 271117 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
517 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH POSSIBLY A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST OVER CENTRAL NM BEFORE 15Z AS
THEY SLOWLY DIMINISH. UPPER HIGH CENTER TO BE LOCATED OVER AZ
WITH NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ACROSS NM. SCT TO NMRS SHOWERS AND
STORMS TO DEVELOP AFT 18Z FROM SW TO NE OVER NM...AND MOVE TO THE
EAST AND SOUTHEAST. MTS OCCASIONALLY OBSCURED IN LCL MVFR CIGS
BEFORE 15Z AND AFT 18Z IN BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH THE STRONGER
TSMS. SFC WND GUSTS TO 40 KT POSSIBLE AS WELL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...336 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME IS TILTED EASTWARD. A
BACK DOOR FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO SLIDE THROUGH EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON FRIDAY. A HEALTHY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE
FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN NORTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROUND THE UPPER HIGH THIS MORNING.
NOW OVER COLORADO...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS TODAY. AS IT DOES SO...THE MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD TILT
EASTWARD...PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AS COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY. BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS SHOULD LIE FROM THE SW MTNS NEWD TO THE NE
PLAINS...THOUGH DO EXPECTED SOME STORMS TO ROLL OFF THE SC
MTNS/HIGHLANDS INTO THE PLAINS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...COULD SEE
SOME HEAVY RAIN...ESP ACROSS THE SW MTNS WHERE STORM MOTION WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST.

A BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED BY THE
AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG IT...WHICH BY MOST MODEL
ACCOUNTS...SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE EC SHOWS
IT SLOWING UP NEAR I-40. REGARDLESS...BEHIND IT...COOLER AND MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH TSTM DEVELOPMENT. UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN SHOULD IGNITE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THESE STORMS SHOULD AID IN THE SYNOPTIC FRONT PUSHING THRU THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRI AFTN/EVE.

MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT CLEAR TO THE AZ BORDER
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE SATURDAY ACROSS THE
WEST. ADDITIONALLY...THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL START TO
BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AS THE 7H HIGH CENTER
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NM.

5H HIGH LOOKS TO CENTER ITSELF OVER NM ON SUNDAY...BUT THE 7H HIGH
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NM. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN...SHIFTING BOTH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHS EASTWARD. THUS...A CONTINUED HEALTHY CROP OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUN THRU AT LEAST TUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM. BY WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN NM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SHEARS OUT AND SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH POTENTIALLY A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING BUT NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. SOME
DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO WORK INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER...BUT THIS
MAY HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON FRIDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WEST...AND ABOVE AVERAGE EAST BY A FEW
DEGREES. STORM MOTION WILL BE MOSTLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY...WHILE
A WEAK FRONT SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AND MAY
PRODUCE A RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST WIND INTO THE RGV. THIS SHOULD FOCUS
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE
FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF AVERAGE.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER NEW MEXICO
DURING THE WEEKEND AND ADOPT A SW TO NE ORIENTATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT A TAP OF MONSOON MOISTURE
DEVELOPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE PAC NW. CURRENTLY...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND
WETTING RAIN FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY.

NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
MIN HUMIDITIES MAY CRATER IN THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH DRY AIR CAN WORK INTO THE REGION BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
SHOULD REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERALL. VENT RATES GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TODAY THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH SOME FAIR TO POOR RATES
FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR
RATES POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$



000
FXUS65 KABQ 270936
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
336 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME IS TILTED EASTWARD. A
BACK DOOR FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO SLIDE THROUGH EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON FRIDAY. A HEALTHY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE
FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN NORTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROUND THE UPPER HIGH THIS MORNING.
NOW OVER COLORADO...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS TODAY. AS IT DOES SO...THE MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD TILT
EASTWARD...PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AS COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY. BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS SHOULD LIE FROM THE SW MTNS NEWD TO THE NE
PLAINS...THOUGH DO EXPECTED SOME STORMS TO ROLL OFF THE SC
MTNS/HIGHLANDS INTO THE PLAINS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...COULD SEE
SOME HEAVY RAIN...ESP ACROSS THE SW MTNS WHERE STORM MOTION WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST.

A BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED BY THE
AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG IT...WHICH BY MOST MODEL
ACCOUNTS...SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE EC SHOWS
IT SLOWING UP NEAR I-40. REGARDLESS...BEHIND IT...COOLER AND MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH TSTM DEVELOPMENT. UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN SHOULD IGNITE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THESE STORMS SHOULD AID IN THE SYNOPTIC FRONT PUSHING THRU THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRI AFTN/EVE.

MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT CLEAR TO THE AZ BORDER
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE SATURDAY ACROSS THE
WEST. ADDITIONALLY...THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL START TO
BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AS THE 7H HIGH CENTER
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NM.

5H HIGH LOOKS TO CENTER ITSELF OVER NM ON SUNDAY...BUT THE 7H HIGH
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NM. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN...SHIFTING BOTH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHS EASTWARD. THUS...A CONTINUED HEALTHY CROP OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUN THRU AT LEAST TUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM. BY WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN NM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SHEARS OUT AND SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH POTENTIALLY A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING BUT NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. SOME
DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO WORK INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER...BUT THIS
MAY HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON FRIDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WEST...AND ABOVE AVERAGE EAST BY A FEW
DEGREES. STORM MOTION WILL BE MOSTLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY...WHILE
A WEAK FRONT SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AND MAY
PRODUCE A RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST WIND INTO THE RGV. THIS SHOULD FOCUS
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE
FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF AVERAGE.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER NEW MEXICO
DURING THE WEEKEND AND ADOPT A SW TO NE ORIENTATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT A TAP OF MONSOON MOISTURE
DEVELOPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE PAC NW. CURRENTLY...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND
WETTING RAIN FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY.

NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
MIN HUMIDITIES MAY CRATER IN THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH DRY AIR CAN WORK INTO THE REGION BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
SHOULD REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERALL. VENT RATES GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TODAY THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH SOME FAIR TO POOR RATES
FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR
RATES POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS FROM THE WEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM THE
WEST. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES N OF NM ANOTHER ROUND OF
MAINLY SCT TO ISOLD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MAINLY E OF THE
CONTDVD ON THURSDAY. AN ISOLD STORM COULD IMPACT
KGUP...KABQ...KAEG AND KSAF...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW ENOUGH
WENT WITH VCSH DURING THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.

44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  85  57  89  60 /  10  10   5   5
DULCE...........................  78  46  83  46 /  30  20  30  30
CUBA............................  77  51  79  52 /  30  20  40  40
GALLUP..........................  83  50  86  52 /  20  20  20  20
EL MORRO........................  78  49  82  51 /  40  30  30  30
GRANTS..........................  80  50  84  52 /  30  20  20  30
QUEMADO.........................  79  54  83  54 /  30  30  40  30
GLENWOOD........................  85  57  88  57 /  20  30  50  40
CHAMA...........................  76  46  77  46 /  30  30  40  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  80  57  80  57 /  60  40  40  50
PECOS...........................  80  56  77  54 /  30  20  50  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  78  51  76  50 /  50  40  50  50
RED RIVER.......................  69  44  68  43 /  50  40  50  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  71  48  69  46 /  30  30  50  60
TAOS............................  78  49  79  48 /  30  30  40  40
MORA............................  77  52  73  50 /  40  30  50  60
ESPANOLA........................  84  55  85  55 /  30  30  30  30
SANTA FE........................  80  58  80  57 /  30  20  40  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  84  58  84  57 /  30  30  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  85  63  85  62 /  30  20  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  86  65  88  65 /  20  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  87  62  89  63 /  20  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  86  63  88  63 /  30  20  20  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  88  60  90  61 /  20  20  20  30
RIO RANCHO......................  86  63  89  63 /  20  20  20  30
SOCORRO.........................  89  62  91  62 /  40  20  20  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  81  57  81  56 /  40  30  40  50
TIJERAS.........................  84  58  83  57 /  30  20  40  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  84  54  83  52 /  30  20  40  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  81  56  80  55 /  30  20  50  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  82  58  82  57 /  40  20  50  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  84  62  86  61 /  30  20  50  50
RUIDOSO.........................  77  59  77  57 /  70  20  60  60
CAPULIN.........................  82  55  80  51 /  40  40  30  30
RATON...........................  86  54  84  52 /  40  30  30  30
SPRINGER........................  86  56  84  54 /  30  30  30  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  83  54  79  52 /  40  20  40  50
CLAYTON.........................  89  62  86  60 /  40  30  20  20
ROY.............................  86  59  83  56 /  40  30  20  30
CONCHAS.........................  93  66  90  63 /  40  30  30  20
SANTA ROSA......................  91  63  89  62 /  40  30  30  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  94  66  91  62 /  40  30  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  91  63  90  61 /  30  20  40  30
PORTALES........................  91  66  90  63 /  30  20  40  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  91  65  90  63 /  50  20  30  30
ROSWELL.........................  96  67  95  67 /  20  10  30  40
PICACHO.........................  88  63  88  61 /  60  20  40  50
ELK.............................  81  61  81  59 /  70  30  50  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

34




000
FXUS65 KABQ 270936
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
336 AM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. MORE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS AS
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS THE MOISTURE PLUME IS TILTED EASTWARD. A
BACK DOOR FRONT IS STILL SCHEDULED TO SLIDE THROUGH EASTERN NEW
MEXICO ON FRIDAY. A HEALTHY ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN. THE
FOCUS FOR STORMS WILL SHIFT ACROSS WESTERN NEW MEXICO SATURDAY
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK AS MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS
DRAWN NORTHWARD.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
SHORTWAVE TROUGH CONTINUES TO ROUND THE UPPER HIGH THIS MORNING.
NOW OVER COLORADO...IT SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLIDE EASTWARD INTO THE
GREAT PLAINS TODAY. AS IT DOES SO...THE MOISTURE PLUME SHOULD TILT
EASTWARD...PROVIDING A BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE PLAINS TODAY AS COMPARED WITH YESTERDAY. BEST CHANCES
FOR STORMS SHOULD LIE FROM THE SW MTNS NEWD TO THE NE
PLAINS...THOUGH DO EXPECTED SOME STORMS TO ROLL OFF THE SC
MTNS/HIGHLANDS INTO THE PLAINS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...COULD SEE
SOME HEAVY RAIN...ESP ACROSS THE SW MTNS WHERE STORM MOTION WILL
BE THE LIGHTEST.

A BACK DOOR FRONT REMAINS PROGGED TO SLIDE THROUGH THE PLAINS
EARLY FRIDAY. DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT IS LOCATED BY THE
AFTERNOON...STORMS SHOULD FIRE ALONG IT...WHICH BY MOST MODEL
ACCOUNTS...SHOULD BE ACROSS THE SE PLAINS. HOWEVER...THE EC SHOWS
IT SLOWING UP NEAR I-40. REGARDLESS...BEHIND IT...COOLER AND MORE
STABLE CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVENT MUCH TSTM DEVELOPMENT. UPSLOPE
FLOW ALONG THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN SHOULD IGNITE SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS STORMS OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN. OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
THESE STORMS SHOULD AID IN THE SYNOPTIC FRONT PUSHING THRU THE
CENTRAL MTN CHAIN FRI AFTN/EVE.

MODELS SUGGEST THE FRONT WILL MAKE IT CLEAR TO THE AZ BORDER
WHICH WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A MORE ACTIVE SATURDAY ACROSS THE
WEST. ADDITIONALLY...THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WILL START TO
BECOME REESTABLISHED ACROSS THE WEST AS THE 7H HIGH CENTER
DEVELOPS OVER EASTERN NM.

5H HIGH LOOKS TO CENTER ITSELF OVER NM ON SUNDAY...BUT THE 7H HIGH
WILL REMAIN EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING MID LEVEL MOISTURE TO
CONTINUE TO STREAM NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN NM. SOUTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT BASIN...SHIFTING BOTH THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL HIGHS EASTWARD. THUS...A CONTINUED HEALTHY CROP OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED SUN THRU AT LEAST TUE
ACROSS WESTERN AND PERHAPS CENTRAL NM. BY WEDNESDAY...DRIER AIR
LOOKS TO SLIDE INTO AT LEAST NORTHERN NM AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
TROUGH SHEARS OUT AND SLIDES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS COLORADO.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
SCATTERED SHOWERS...WITH POTENTIALLY A SHORT LIVED THUNDERSTORM OR
TWO TRAVERSING THE FORECAST AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. SHORT TERM
MODELS INDICATE THIS ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY WANE THROUGH THE MID
MORNING BUT NOT COMPLETELY DISSIPATE. BEST CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN
WILL STRETCH FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST OVER THE FORECAST AREA
TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE DISTURBANCE PASSES TO OUR NORTH. SOME
DRIER AIR MAY TRY TO WORK INTO THE FAR NORTHWEST CORNER...BUT THIS
MAY HAVE MORE OF AN IMPACT ON FRIDAY. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE NEAR TO
SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE WEST...AND ABOVE AVERAGE EAST BY A FEW
DEGREES. STORM MOTION WILL BE MOSTLY TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER WILL BE LOCATED TO OUR WEST ON FRIDAY...WHILE
A WEAK FRONT SLIDES INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT MAY PROVIDE
FOR SOME WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW INTO THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AND MAY
PRODUCE A RELATIVELY LIGHT EAST WIND INTO THE RGV. THIS SHOULD FOCUS
CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN ALONG THE CENTRAL MT CHAIN...AS WELL AS THE
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS. THE WEST CENTRAL HIGHER TERRAIN WILL ALSO BE
FAVORED FOR WETTING RAIN FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL BE WITHIN A FEW DEGREES
OF AVERAGE.

THE UPPER HIGH CENTER IS STILL EXPECTED TO DRIFT OVER NEW MEXICO
DURING THE WEEKEND AND ADOPT A SW TO NE ORIENTATION THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WHETHER OR NOT A TAP OF MONSOON MOISTURE
DEVELOPS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHWARD FROM THE PAC NW. CURRENTLY...CHANCES FOR CONVECTION AND
WETTING RAIN FAVOR THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN HIGH TERRAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY.

NO DRASTIC CHANGES IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
MIN HUMIDITIES MAY CRATER IN THE NORTHWEST FRIDAY...DEPENDING ON HOW
MUCH DRY AIR CAN WORK INTO THE REGION BUT OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES
SHOULD REMAIN GOOD TO EXCELLENT OVERALL. VENT RATES GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TODAY THEN DIMINISH FRIDAY WITH SOME FAIR TO POOR RATES
FORECAST NORTHWEST AND NORTH CENTRAL. MORE WIDESPREAD FAIR TO POOR
RATES POSSIBLE MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
DRIER AIR WILL BEGIN TO PUSH INTO WESTERN AREAS FROM THE WEST
FOR THE REMAINDER OF TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS TAPERING OFF FROM THE
WEST. AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PASSES N OF NM ANOTHER ROUND OF
MAINLY SCT TO ISOLD CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MAINLY E OF THE
CONTDVD ON THURSDAY. AN ISOLD STORM COULD IMPACT
KGUP...KABQ...KAEG AND KSAF...BUT PROBABILITIES ARE LOW ENOUGH
WENT WITH VCSH DURING THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIOD IN THOSE
LOCATIONS.

44

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  85  57  89  60 /  10  10   5   5
DULCE...........................  78  46  83  46 /  30  20  30  30
CUBA............................  77  51  79  52 /  30  20  40  40
GALLUP..........................  83  50  86  52 /  20  20  20  20
EL MORRO........................  78  49  82  51 /  40  30  30  30
GRANTS..........................  80  50  84  52 /  30  20  20  30
QUEMADO.........................  79  54  83  54 /  30  30  40  30
GLENWOOD........................  85  57  88  57 /  20  30  50  40
CHAMA...........................  76  46  77  46 /  30  30  40  50
LOS ALAMOS......................  80  57  80  57 /  60  40  40  50
PECOS...........................  80  56  77  54 /  30  20  50  60
CERRO/QUESTA....................  78  51  76  50 /  50  40  50  50
RED RIVER.......................  69  44  68  43 /  50  40  50  60
ANGEL FIRE......................  71  48  69  46 /  30  30  50  60
TAOS............................  78  49  79  48 /  30  30  40  40
MORA............................  77  52  73  50 /  40  30  50  60
ESPANOLA........................  84  55  85  55 /  30  30  30  30
SANTA FE........................  80  58  80  57 /  30  20  40  40
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  84  58  84  57 /  30  30  40  30
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  85  63  85  62 /  30  20  30  40
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  86  65  88  65 /  20  20  30  30
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  87  62  89  63 /  20  10  20  30
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  86  63  88  63 /  30  20  20  30
LOS LUNAS.......................  88  60  90  61 /  20  20  20  30
RIO RANCHO......................  86  63  89  63 /  20  20  20  30
SOCORRO.........................  89  62  91  62 /  40  20  20  30
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  81  57  81  56 /  40  30  40  50
TIJERAS.........................  84  58  83  57 /  30  20  40  50
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  84  54  83  52 /  30  20  40  40
CLINES CORNERS..................  81  56  80  55 /  30  20  50  50
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  82  58  82  57 /  40  20  50  60
CARRIZOZO.......................  84  62  86  61 /  30  20  50  50
RUIDOSO.........................  77  59  77  57 /  70  20  60  60
CAPULIN.........................  82  55  80  51 /  40  40  30  30
RATON...........................  86  54  84  52 /  40  30  30  30
SPRINGER........................  86  56  84  54 /  30  30  30  30
LAS VEGAS.......................  83  54  79  52 /  40  20  40  50
CLAYTON.........................  89  62  86  60 /  40  30  20  20
ROY.............................  86  59  83  56 /  40  30  20  30
CONCHAS.........................  93  66  90  63 /  40  30  30  20
SANTA ROSA......................  91  63  89  62 /  40  30  30  30
TUCUMCARI.......................  94  66  91  62 /  40  30  30  20
CLOVIS..........................  91  63  90  61 /  30  20  40  30
PORTALES........................  91  66  90  63 /  30  20  40  30
FORT SUMNER.....................  91  65  90  63 /  50  20  30  30
ROSWELL.........................  96  67  95  67 /  20  10  30  40
PICACHO.........................  88  63  88  61 /  60  20  40  50
ELK.............................  81  61  81  59 /  70  30  50  50

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

34



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