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000
FXUS65 KABQ 020005
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
505 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS IN MVFR AND IFR RANGE AND STILL SOME
PATCHY FOG LIKELY TO CONTINUE WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD
BEGIN TO ERODE SLOWLY FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW
BEHIND A DISSIPATING FRONT ENDS AND IS REPLACED BY A WEAK
DOWNSLOPE FLOW...MAINLY WEST OF A DES MOINES TO ROSWELL LINE.
EVEN A FEW PATCHES OF LIFR CIGS AND VSBY CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE
SOME SLOW IMPROVEMENT LATE TONIGHT. GREATEST IMPACT OF LOW CIGS
AND FOG TO BE ACROSS LVS THIS EVE...AND TO A LESSER DEGREE TCC AND
ROW. PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN IN LOW LYING SPOTS OF WRN/NWRN NEW
MEXICO ONCE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VCNTY
KFMN. BEST CHANCE OF THIS BETWEEN 08Z AND 15Z MONDAY. MT
OBSCURATIONS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION ACROSS NORTH HALF OF NM.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...252 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY A WARMING TREND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE BY
TUESDAY...BUT WILL SEE A SLIGHT DIP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THANKS TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRYING TREND UNDERWAY...WITH THE 12Z KABQ PWAT COMING IN AT
0.25"...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY AND WELL BELOW 24HRS
AGO. LACK OF DEEP LAYER MIXING IS ALLOWING SURFACE MOISTURE FROM
THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM TO REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER...WHICH MAY LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN FREEZING FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
ROSWELL AND SANTA ROSA IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPEAKING OF...LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS THANKS TO A
BACKDOOR FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPSLOPE FLOW.

BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST MONDAY...MAINLY
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...ADJACENT EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AND LEE SIDE
TROUGHING REPLACES THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST. PRESSURE
HEIGHTS INCREASE FURTHER ON TUESDAY AS THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING FROM THE 12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE.
OUR FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z MODELS...BUT CLOSER TO THE
FASTER GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE EAST...THEN A RETURN
TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE
BY FRIDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN NEXT SATURDAY WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH AND
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DRY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL EASILY BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES REMAINS THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH
THE WEEK.

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MAINLY TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ALL AREAS MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS WHERE A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP IN LATE-DAY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS
THURSDAY. THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR RIDGETOPS ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS FROM
RATON SOUTH TO LAS VEGAS SOUTH TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS EAST TO CLINES CORNERS.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FAIR TO EXCELLENT
VENTILATION RATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL DETERIORATE THURSDAY
AS A RESULT OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE. VENT RATES TREND BACK UP NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS
AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND...ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATING THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND DIG SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON JUST WHERE THE TROUGH ENDS UP
BOTTOMING OUT. BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD COOL US OFF BUT THE ECMWF
SCENARIO WOULD BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 012152
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
252 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY A WARMING TREND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE BY
TUESDAY...BUT WILL SEE A SLIGHT DIP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THANKS TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRYING TREND UNDERWAY...WITH THE 12Z KABQ PWAT COMING IN AT
0.25"...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY AND WELL BELOW 24HRS
AGO. LACK OF DEEP LAYER MIXING IS ALLOWING SURFACE MOISTURE FROM
THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM TO REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER...WHICH MAY LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN FREEZING FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
ROSWELL AND SANTA ROSA IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPEAKING OF...LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS THANKS TO A
BACKDOOR FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPSLOPE FLOW.

BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST MONDAY...MAINLY
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...ADJACENT EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AND LEE SIDE
TROUGHING REPLACES THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST. PRESSURE
HEIGHTS INCREASE FURTHER ON TUESDAY AS THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING FROM THE 12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE.
OUR FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z MODELS...BUT CLOSER TO THE
FASTER GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE EAST...THEN A RETURN
TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE
BY FRIDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN NEXT SATURDAY WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH AND
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DRY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL EASILY BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES REMAINS THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH
THE WEEK.

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MAINLY TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ALL AREAS MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS WHERE A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP IN LATE-DAY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS
THURSDAY. THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR RIDGETOPS ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS FROM
RATON SOUTH TO LAS VEGAS SOUTH TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS EAST TO CLINES CORNERS.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FAIR TO EXCELLENT
VENTILATION RATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL DETERIORATE THURSDAY
AS A RESULT OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE. VENT RATES TREND BACK UP NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS
AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND...ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATING THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND DIG SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON JUST WHERE THE TROUGH ENDS UP
BOTTOMING OUT. BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD COOL US OFF BUT THE ECMWF
SCENARIO WOULD BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OUT EAST...WEAK
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR/IFR STRATUS IN PLACE FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EWD OVER THE ERN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING...IMPACTING
KTCC AND KROW WITH MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING
SPOTS OF WRN/NWRN NEW MEXICO IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VCNTY KFMN.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  25  50  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  17  47  19  50 /   0   0   5   0
CUBA............................  21  47  23  50 /   0   0   5   0
GALLUP..........................  22  54  22  58 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  20  51  20  54 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  21  52  22  56 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  24  53  24  57 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  30  59  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  11  42  14  44 /   0   5   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  24  45  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  22  44  25  48 /   0   5   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  11  42  12  44 /   5   5   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  12  36  16  38 /   5   5   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................   7  38  10  41 /   5   5   5   0
TAOS............................  14  43  15  46 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  18  48  20  49 /   5   5   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  22  48  25  53 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  23  45  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  22  48  24  52 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  26  52  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  28  54  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  24  55  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  28  54  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  24  55  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  27  53  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  30  56  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  25  49  28  52 /   0   5   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  24  50  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  17  50  21  53 /   0   5   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  23  48  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  25  49  26  54 /   0   5   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  29  52  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  27  52  32  56 /   5   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  17  50  25  54 /   5   5   0   0
RATON...........................  16  52  19  56 /   5   5   0   0
SPRINGER........................  18  53  21  57 /   5   5   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  21  51  24  54 /   0   5   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  22  57  31  67 /   0   5   0   0
ROY.............................  21  54  28  60 /   0   5   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  26  60  30  64 /   0   5   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  25  59  29  65 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  27  60  28  66 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  24  54  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  25  55  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  28  57  31  65 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  28  57  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  27  57  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  28  55  33  61 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS65 KABQ 012152
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
252 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY A WARMING TREND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE BY
TUESDAY...BUT WILL SEE A SLIGHT DIP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THANKS TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRYING TREND UNDERWAY...WITH THE 12Z KABQ PWAT COMING IN AT
0.25"...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY AND WELL BELOW 24HRS
AGO. LACK OF DEEP LAYER MIXING IS ALLOWING SURFACE MOISTURE FROM
THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM TO REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER...WHICH MAY LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN FREEZING FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
ROSWELL AND SANTA ROSA IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPEAKING OF...LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS THANKS TO A
BACKDOOR FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPSLOPE FLOW.

BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST MONDAY...MAINLY
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...ADJACENT EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AND LEE SIDE
TROUGHING REPLACES THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST. PRESSURE
HEIGHTS INCREASE FURTHER ON TUESDAY AS THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING FROM THE 12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE.
OUR FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z MODELS...BUT CLOSER TO THE
FASTER GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE EAST...THEN A RETURN
TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE
BY FRIDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN NEXT SATURDAY WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH AND
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DRY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL EASILY BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES REMAINS THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH
THE WEEK.

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MAINLY TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ALL AREAS MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS WHERE A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP IN LATE-DAY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS
THURSDAY. THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR RIDGETOPS ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS FROM
RATON SOUTH TO LAS VEGAS SOUTH TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS EAST TO CLINES CORNERS.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FAIR TO EXCELLENT
VENTILATION RATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL DETERIORATE THURSDAY
AS A RESULT OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE. VENT RATES TREND BACK UP NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS
AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND...ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATING THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND DIG SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON JUST WHERE THE TROUGH ENDS UP
BOTTOMING OUT. BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD COOL US OFF BUT THE ECMWF
SCENARIO WOULD BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OUT EAST...WEAK
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR/IFR STRATUS IN PLACE FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EWD OVER THE ERN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING...IMPACTING
KTCC AND KROW WITH MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING
SPOTS OF WRN/NWRN NEW MEXICO IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VCNTY KFMN.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  25  50  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  17  47  19  50 /   0   0   5   0
CUBA............................  21  47  23  50 /   0   0   5   0
GALLUP..........................  22  54  22  58 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  20  51  20  54 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  21  52  22  56 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  24  53  24  57 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  30  59  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  11  42  14  44 /   0   5   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  24  45  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  22  44  25  48 /   0   5   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  11  42  12  44 /   5   5   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  12  36  16  38 /   5   5   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................   7  38  10  41 /   5   5   5   0
TAOS............................  14  43  15  46 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  18  48  20  49 /   5   5   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  22  48  25  53 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  23  45  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  22  48  24  52 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  26  52  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  28  54  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  24  55  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  28  54  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  24  55  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  27  53  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  30  56  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  25  49  28  52 /   0   5   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  24  50  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  17  50  21  53 /   0   5   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  23  48  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  25  49  26  54 /   0   5   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  29  52  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  27  52  32  56 /   5   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  17  50  25  54 /   5   5   0   0
RATON...........................  16  52  19  56 /   5   5   0   0
SPRINGER........................  18  53  21  57 /   5   5   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  21  51  24  54 /   0   5   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  22  57  31  67 /   0   5   0   0
ROY.............................  21  54  28  60 /   0   5   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  26  60  30  64 /   0   5   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  25  59  29  65 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  27  60  28  66 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  24  54  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  25  55  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  28  57  31  65 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  28  57  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  27  57  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  28  55  33  61 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS65 KABQ 012152
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
252 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY A WARMING TREND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE BY
TUESDAY...BUT WILL SEE A SLIGHT DIP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THANKS TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRYING TREND UNDERWAY...WITH THE 12Z KABQ PWAT COMING IN AT
0.25"...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY AND WELL BELOW 24HRS
AGO. LACK OF DEEP LAYER MIXING IS ALLOWING SURFACE MOISTURE FROM
THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM TO REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER...WHICH MAY LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN FREEZING FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
ROSWELL AND SANTA ROSA IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPEAKING OF...LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS THANKS TO A
BACKDOOR FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPSLOPE FLOW.

BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST MONDAY...MAINLY
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...ADJACENT EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AND LEE SIDE
TROUGHING REPLACES THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST. PRESSURE
HEIGHTS INCREASE FURTHER ON TUESDAY AS THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING FROM THE 12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE.
OUR FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z MODELS...BUT CLOSER TO THE
FASTER GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE EAST...THEN A RETURN
TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE
BY FRIDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN NEXT SATURDAY WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH AND
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DRY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL EASILY BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES REMAINS THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH
THE WEEK.

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MAINLY TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ALL AREAS MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS WHERE A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP IN LATE-DAY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS
THURSDAY. THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR RIDGETOPS ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS FROM
RATON SOUTH TO LAS VEGAS SOUTH TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS EAST TO CLINES CORNERS.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FAIR TO EXCELLENT
VENTILATION RATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL DETERIORATE THURSDAY
AS A RESULT OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE. VENT RATES TREND BACK UP NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS
AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND...ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATING THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND DIG SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON JUST WHERE THE TROUGH ENDS UP
BOTTOMING OUT. BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD COOL US OFF BUT THE ECMWF
SCENARIO WOULD BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OUT EAST...WEAK
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR/IFR STRATUS IN PLACE FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EWD OVER THE ERN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING...IMPACTING
KTCC AND KROW WITH MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING
SPOTS OF WRN/NWRN NEW MEXICO IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VCNTY KFMN.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  25  50  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  17  47  19  50 /   0   0   5   0
CUBA............................  21  47  23  50 /   0   0   5   0
GALLUP..........................  22  54  22  58 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  20  51  20  54 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  21  52  22  56 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  24  53  24  57 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  30  59  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  11  42  14  44 /   0   5   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  24  45  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  22  44  25  48 /   0   5   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  11  42  12  44 /   5   5   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  12  36  16  38 /   5   5   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................   7  38  10  41 /   5   5   5   0
TAOS............................  14  43  15  46 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  18  48  20  49 /   5   5   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  22  48  25  53 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  23  45  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  22  48  24  52 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  26  52  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  28  54  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  24  55  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  28  54  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  24  55  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  27  53  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  30  56  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  25  49  28  52 /   0   5   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  24  50  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  17  50  21  53 /   0   5   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  23  48  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  25  49  26  54 /   0   5   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  29  52  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  27  52  32  56 /   5   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  17  50  25  54 /   5   5   0   0
RATON...........................  16  52  19  56 /   5   5   0   0
SPRINGER........................  18  53  21  57 /   5   5   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  21  51  24  54 /   0   5   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  22  57  31  67 /   0   5   0   0
ROY.............................  21  54  28  60 /   0   5   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  26  60  30  64 /   0   5   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  25  59  29  65 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  27  60  28  66 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  24  54  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  25  55  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  28  57  31  65 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  28  57  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  27  57  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  28  55  33  61 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS65 KABQ 012152
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
252 PM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AN EXTENDED DRY PERIOD IS FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY A WARMING TREND
INTO NEXT WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE BY
TUESDAY...BUT WILL SEE A SLIGHT DIP ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY THANKS TO A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED BEHIND THE BACKDOOR
FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND QUICKLY FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND
WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FORECAST AND DRY WESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
DRYING TREND UNDERWAY...WITH THE 12Z KABQ PWAT COMING IN AT
0.25"...WHICH IS NEAR NORMAL FOR FEBRUARY AND WELL BELOW 24HRS
AGO. LACK OF DEEP LAYER MIXING IS ALLOWING SURFACE MOISTURE FROM
THE DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM TO REMAIN TRAPPED IN THE LOWER BOUNDARY
LAYER...WHICH MAY LEAD TO REDEVELOPMENT OF FREEZING FOG ACROSS
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA TONIGHT. HIGHER CONFIDENCE
IN FREEZING FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT IN THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY BETWEEN
ROSWELL AND SANTA ROSA IF CLOUDS CAN CLEAR OUT LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPEAKING OF...LOW CLOUDS ARE HANGING TOUGH
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN PLAINS AND HIGHLANDS THANKS TO A
BACKDOOR FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPSLOPE FLOW.

BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST MONDAY...MAINLY
ALONG THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN...ADJACENT EASTERN HIGHLANDS AND
EAST CENTRAL PLAINS AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT INCREASES AND LEE SIDE
TROUGHING REPLACES THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE EAST. PRESSURE
HEIGHTS INCREASE FURTHER ON TUESDAY AS THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES...WITH HIGHS FORECAST TO BE ABOVE NORMAL AREAWIDE. A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO PUSH DOWN THE EASTERN PLAINS
WEDNESDAY...BUT SOME DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING FROM THE 12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS WILL MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE IN HIGH TEMPERATURES THERE.
OUR FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE OF THE 12Z MODELS...BUT CLOSER TO THE
FASTER GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS. COOLER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS THE EAST...THEN A RETURN
TO LEE SIDE TROUGHING AND WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AREAWIDE
BY FRIDAY. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN NEXT SATURDAY WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH AND
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES. DRY
DOWNSLOPE FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL EASILY BOOST TEMPERATURES INTO THE
MID 60S TO MID 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES REMAINS THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH
THE WEEK.

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING MAINLY TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONDITIONS TO THE REGION THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN ALL AREAS MONDAY AND REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE ONE EXCEPTION WILL BE OVER THE EASTERN
PLAINS WHERE A WEAK BACKDOOR FRONT WILL DROP IN LATE-DAY WEDNESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BRINGING SLIGHTLY COOLER DAYTIME HIGHS
THURSDAY. THE DEVELOPING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL RESULT IN BREEZY
CONDITIONS MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY FOR RIDGETOPS ALONG THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN EASTWARD TO THE NORTHEAST AND CENTRAL HIGHLANDS FROM
RATON SOUTH TO LAS VEGAS SOUTH TO THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
SANDIA/MANZANO MOUNTAINS EAST TO CLINES CORNERS.

MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH ONE ANOTHER FOR THE LATTER
PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE CENTER OF AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER NM THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. FAIR TO EXCELLENT
VENTILATION RATES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL DETERIORATE THURSDAY
AS A RESULT OF THE WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
RIDGE. VENT RATES TREND BACK UP NEXT WEEKEND AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS
AND THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES MORE WESTERLY.

BEYOND NEXT WEEKEND...ECMWF AND GFS BOTH INDICATING THAT AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP AND DIG SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE
SOUTHWEST U.S. THE MODELS DISAGREE ON JUST WHERE THE TROUGH ENDS UP
BOTTOMING OUT. BOTH SOLUTIONS WOULD COOL US OFF BUT THE ECMWF
SCENARIO WOULD BE MUCH MORE FAVORABLE FOR PRECIPITATION.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OUT EAST...WEAK
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR/IFR STRATUS IN PLACE FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EWD OVER THE ERN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING...IMPACTING
KTCC AND KROW WITH MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING
SPOTS OF WRN/NWRN NEW MEXICO IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VCNTY KFMN.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  25  50  26  55 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  17  47  19  50 /   0   0   5   0
CUBA............................  21  47  23  50 /   0   0   5   0
GALLUP..........................  22  54  22  58 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  20  51  20  54 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  21  52  22  56 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  24  53  24  57 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  30  59  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  11  42  14  44 /   0   5   5   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  24  45  26  49 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  22  44  25  48 /   0   5   0   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  11  42  12  44 /   5   5   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  12  36  16  38 /   5   5   5   5
ANGEL FIRE......................   7  38  10  41 /   5   5   5   0
TAOS............................  14  43  15  46 /   0   0   0   0
MORA............................  18  48  20  49 /   5   5   0   0
ESPANOLA........................  22  48  25  53 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  23  45  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  22  48  24  52 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  26  52  30  56 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  28  54  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  24  55  26  60 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  28  54  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  24  55  27  60 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  27  53  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  30  56  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  25  49  28  52 /   0   5   0   0
TIJERAS.........................  24  50  27  53 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  17  50  21  53 /   0   5   0   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  23  48  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  25  49  26  54 /   0   5   0   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  29  52  31  58 /   0   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  27  52  32  56 /   5   0   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  17  50  25  54 /   5   5   0   0
RATON...........................  16  52  19  56 /   5   5   0   0
SPRINGER........................  18  53  21  57 /   5   5   0   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  21  51  24  54 /   0   5   0   0
CLAYTON.........................  22  57  31  67 /   0   5   0   0
ROY.............................  21  54  28  60 /   0   5   0   0
CONCHAS.........................  26  60  30  64 /   0   5   0   0
SANTA ROSA......................  25  59  29  65 /   0   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  27  60  28  66 /   0   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  24  54  29  63 /   0   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  25  55  30  64 /   0   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  28  57  31  65 /   0   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  28  57  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  27  57  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
ELK.............................  28  55  33  61 /   5   0   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS65 KABQ 011744 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1044 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED 1ST PERIOD SKY COVER TO BETTER MATCH LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1038 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OUT EAST...WEAK
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR/IFR STRATUS IN PLACE FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EWD OVER THE ERN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING...IMPACTING
KTCC AND KROW WITH MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING
SPOTS OF WRN/NWRN NEW MEXICO IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VCNTY KFMN.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...253 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
QUIETER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT WEEK...OUTSIDE OF SOME
LOCALIZED FOG THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CHILLY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY...BUT A WARMING TREND IS ON TAP FOR THE WORK WEEK. BY
TUESDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
DETOUR THE WARMING TREND TEMPORARILY FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. THE
WARMING TREND WILL THEN RESUME FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WET GROUND AND HIGH DEWPOINTS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...AS EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO ERODE
A BIT IN SOME PLACES...BUT PATCHY FOG WILL STILL BE A CONCERN
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SOME SPOTS.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. PER RADAR IMAGERY...LOOKS LIKE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG IT AND UPSLOPE AREAS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO NE NM ALONG JOHNSON MESA/RATON RIDGE THIS
MORNING. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS...AND MUCH OF IT WILL
LIKELY BE DONE BY 18Z. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL
NOT CHANGE DRASTICALLY FROM YESTERDAY...AND IN MOST SPOTS...WILL
BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF YESTERDAYS READINGS. DRIER AIR DOES GET
USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SO CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TONIGHT DIMINISH SOME...THOUGH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND THE RESERVOIR OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE FAR AWAY. THEREFORE...COULD SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...
WESTERN AREAS SHOULD WARM UP A FEW DEGREES TODAY...THOUGH STAYED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. ALSO...SIMILARLY TO THIS
MORNING...STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
TONIGHT AS THE NAM IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS RETURN
TONIGHT AFTER SOME MIXING TODAY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS IN EARNEST MONDAY AND CONTINUES ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK TROUGH SKIRTING NE NM WEDNESDAY
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE PLAINS...PUTTING A TEMPORARY HALT ON THE WARMING TREND
FOR WED/THU. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH AND
NE...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT ATTM. THE WARMING
TREND RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT
ARRIVES AROUND THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME. COULD SEE SOME BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FRI/SAT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE STORM THAT PRODUCED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SONORA. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN
THIS FLOW WILL BRUSH THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND SEND A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH EAST IN THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE
WEST AND SOUTH WARM SLIGHTLY. MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND FROM THE RECENT
STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE...THIS MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER HE NORTHERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE FAR NORTHEAST TODAY. VENT
RATES WILL BE POOR IN CENTRAL ZONES...WHILE FAIR TO GOOD RATES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE FAR WEST AND EAST. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL LOWER A
BUNCH TODAY...BY 20 TO 40 PERCENT...MAKING THEM BETWEEN 40 AND 60
PERCENT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AND EAST SLOPE WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. NO BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHEAST. IN FACT
LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST. THUS ALL AREAS
WILL WARM NOTICEABLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. THERE
WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION TO WORRY ABOUT MONDAY. THE VENT RATES WILL
IMPROVE AS WELL...MOSTLY IN THE FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY...WITH SOME
VERY GOOD RATES IN THE WEST. RH RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RELAX A LITTLE ON TUESDAY. THE DRY AND
MILDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. VENT
RATES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES BUT MOSTLY
POOR IN THE EAST.

THE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE A BREAK IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A LITTLE STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE...DROPPING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE
EAST WHILE THE WEST REMAINS MILD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY THANKS TO
A STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS. THEY WILL DROP TO
FAIR TO POOR ON THURSDAY THOUGH.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY AND BUILD OVER THE STATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST. VENT RATES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR FRIDAY THEN
IMPROVE SOME SATURDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO INCREASE OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AGAIN. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON TAP FOR THE EAST. WE WILL KEEP IT
DRY OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WHILE TEMPERATURES LOWER SOME IN THE EAST
ON SUNDAY THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS65 KABQ 011744 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1044 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED 1ST PERIOD SKY COVER TO BETTER MATCH LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1038 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OUT EAST...WEAK
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR/IFR STRATUS IN PLACE FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EWD OVER THE ERN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING...IMPACTING
KTCC AND KROW WITH MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING
SPOTS OF WRN/NWRN NEW MEXICO IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VCNTY KFMN.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...253 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
QUIETER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT WEEK...OUTSIDE OF SOME
LOCALIZED FOG THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CHILLY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY...BUT A WARMING TREND IS ON TAP FOR THE WORK WEEK. BY
TUESDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
DETOUR THE WARMING TREND TEMPORARILY FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. THE
WARMING TREND WILL THEN RESUME FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WET GROUND AND HIGH DEWPOINTS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...AS EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO ERODE
A BIT IN SOME PLACES...BUT PATCHY FOG WILL STILL BE A CONCERN
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SOME SPOTS.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. PER RADAR IMAGERY...LOOKS LIKE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG IT AND UPSLOPE AREAS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO NE NM ALONG JOHNSON MESA/RATON RIDGE THIS
MORNING. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS...AND MUCH OF IT WILL
LIKELY BE DONE BY 18Z. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL
NOT CHANGE DRASTICALLY FROM YESTERDAY...AND IN MOST SPOTS...WILL
BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF YESTERDAYS READINGS. DRIER AIR DOES GET
USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SO CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TONIGHT DIMINISH SOME...THOUGH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND THE RESERVOIR OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE FAR AWAY. THEREFORE...COULD SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...
WESTERN AREAS SHOULD WARM UP A FEW DEGREES TODAY...THOUGH STAYED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. ALSO...SIMILARLY TO THIS
MORNING...STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
TONIGHT AS THE NAM IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS RETURN
TONIGHT AFTER SOME MIXING TODAY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS IN EARNEST MONDAY AND CONTINUES ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK TROUGH SKIRTING NE NM WEDNESDAY
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE PLAINS...PUTTING A TEMPORARY HALT ON THE WARMING TREND
FOR WED/THU. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH AND
NE...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT ATTM. THE WARMING
TREND RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT
ARRIVES AROUND THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME. COULD SEE SOME BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FRI/SAT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE STORM THAT PRODUCED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SONORA. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN
THIS FLOW WILL BRUSH THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND SEND A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH EAST IN THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE
WEST AND SOUTH WARM SLIGHTLY. MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND FROM THE RECENT
STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE...THIS MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER HE NORTHERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE FAR NORTHEAST TODAY. VENT
RATES WILL BE POOR IN CENTRAL ZONES...WHILE FAIR TO GOOD RATES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE FAR WEST AND EAST. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL LOWER A
BUNCH TODAY...BY 20 TO 40 PERCENT...MAKING THEM BETWEEN 40 AND 60
PERCENT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AND EAST SLOPE WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. NO BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHEAST. IN FACT
LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST. THUS ALL AREAS
WILL WARM NOTICEABLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. THERE
WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION TO WORRY ABOUT MONDAY. THE VENT RATES WILL
IMPROVE AS WELL...MOSTLY IN THE FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY...WITH SOME
VERY GOOD RATES IN THE WEST. RH RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RELAX A LITTLE ON TUESDAY. THE DRY AND
MILDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. VENT
RATES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES BUT MOSTLY
POOR IN THE EAST.

THE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE A BREAK IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A LITTLE STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE...DROPPING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE
EAST WHILE THE WEST REMAINS MILD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY THANKS TO
A STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS. THEY WILL DROP TO
FAIR TO POOR ON THURSDAY THOUGH.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY AND BUILD OVER THE STATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST. VENT RATES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR FRIDAY THEN
IMPROVE SOME SATURDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO INCREASE OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AGAIN. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON TAP FOR THE EAST. WE WILL KEEP IT
DRY OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WHILE TEMPERATURES LOWER SOME IN THE EAST
ON SUNDAY THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS65 KABQ 011744 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1044 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED 1ST PERIOD SKY COVER TO BETTER MATCH LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1038 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OUT EAST...WEAK
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR/IFR STRATUS IN PLACE FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EWD OVER THE ERN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING...IMPACTING
KTCC AND KROW WITH MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING
SPOTS OF WRN/NWRN NEW MEXICO IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VCNTY KFMN.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...253 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
QUIETER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT WEEK...OUTSIDE OF SOME
LOCALIZED FOG THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CHILLY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY...BUT A WARMING TREND IS ON TAP FOR THE WORK WEEK. BY
TUESDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
DETOUR THE WARMING TREND TEMPORARILY FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. THE
WARMING TREND WILL THEN RESUME FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WET GROUND AND HIGH DEWPOINTS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...AS EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO ERODE
A BIT IN SOME PLACES...BUT PATCHY FOG WILL STILL BE A CONCERN
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SOME SPOTS.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. PER RADAR IMAGERY...LOOKS LIKE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG IT AND UPSLOPE AREAS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO NE NM ALONG JOHNSON MESA/RATON RIDGE THIS
MORNING. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS...AND MUCH OF IT WILL
LIKELY BE DONE BY 18Z. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL
NOT CHANGE DRASTICALLY FROM YESTERDAY...AND IN MOST SPOTS...WILL
BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF YESTERDAYS READINGS. DRIER AIR DOES GET
USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SO CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TONIGHT DIMINISH SOME...THOUGH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND THE RESERVOIR OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE FAR AWAY. THEREFORE...COULD SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...
WESTERN AREAS SHOULD WARM UP A FEW DEGREES TODAY...THOUGH STAYED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. ALSO...SIMILARLY TO THIS
MORNING...STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
TONIGHT AS THE NAM IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS RETURN
TONIGHT AFTER SOME MIXING TODAY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS IN EARNEST MONDAY AND CONTINUES ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK TROUGH SKIRTING NE NM WEDNESDAY
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE PLAINS...PUTTING A TEMPORARY HALT ON THE WARMING TREND
FOR WED/THU. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH AND
NE...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT ATTM. THE WARMING
TREND RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT
ARRIVES AROUND THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME. COULD SEE SOME BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FRI/SAT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE STORM THAT PRODUCED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SONORA. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN
THIS FLOW WILL BRUSH THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND SEND A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH EAST IN THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE
WEST AND SOUTH WARM SLIGHTLY. MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND FROM THE RECENT
STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE...THIS MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER HE NORTHERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE FAR NORTHEAST TODAY. VENT
RATES WILL BE POOR IN CENTRAL ZONES...WHILE FAIR TO GOOD RATES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE FAR WEST AND EAST. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL LOWER A
BUNCH TODAY...BY 20 TO 40 PERCENT...MAKING THEM BETWEEN 40 AND 60
PERCENT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AND EAST SLOPE WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. NO BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHEAST. IN FACT
LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST. THUS ALL AREAS
WILL WARM NOTICEABLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. THERE
WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION TO WORRY ABOUT MONDAY. THE VENT RATES WILL
IMPROVE AS WELL...MOSTLY IN THE FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY...WITH SOME
VERY GOOD RATES IN THE WEST. RH RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RELAX A LITTLE ON TUESDAY. THE DRY AND
MILDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. VENT
RATES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES BUT MOSTLY
POOR IN THE EAST.

THE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE A BREAK IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A LITTLE STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE...DROPPING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE
EAST WHILE THE WEST REMAINS MILD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY THANKS TO
A STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS. THEY WILL DROP TO
FAIR TO POOR ON THURSDAY THOUGH.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY AND BUILD OVER THE STATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST. VENT RATES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR FRIDAY THEN
IMPROVE SOME SATURDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO INCREASE OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AGAIN. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON TAP FOR THE EAST. WE WILL KEEP IT
DRY OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WHILE TEMPERATURES LOWER SOME IN THE EAST
ON SUNDAY THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS65 KABQ 011744 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1044 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED 1ST PERIOD SKY COVER TO BETTER MATCH LATEST VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE AND TRENDS. OTHERWISE...FORECAST ON TRACK.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1038 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OUT EAST...WEAK
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR/IFR STRATUS IN PLACE FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EWD OVER THE ERN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING...IMPACTING
KTCC AND KROW WITH MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING
SPOTS OF WRN/NWRN NEW MEXICO IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VCNTY KFMN.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...253 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
QUIETER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT WEEK...OUTSIDE OF SOME
LOCALIZED FOG THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CHILLY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY...BUT A WARMING TREND IS ON TAP FOR THE WORK WEEK. BY
TUESDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
DETOUR THE WARMING TREND TEMPORARILY FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. THE
WARMING TREND WILL THEN RESUME FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WET GROUND AND HIGH DEWPOINTS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...AS EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO ERODE
A BIT IN SOME PLACES...BUT PATCHY FOG WILL STILL BE A CONCERN
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SOME SPOTS.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. PER RADAR IMAGERY...LOOKS LIKE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG IT AND UPSLOPE AREAS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO NE NM ALONG JOHNSON MESA/RATON RIDGE THIS
MORNING. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS...AND MUCH OF IT WILL
LIKELY BE DONE BY 18Z. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL
NOT CHANGE DRASTICALLY FROM YESTERDAY...AND IN MOST SPOTS...WILL
BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF YESTERDAYS READINGS. DRIER AIR DOES GET
USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SO CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TONIGHT DIMINISH SOME...THOUGH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND THE RESERVOIR OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE FAR AWAY. THEREFORE...COULD SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...
WESTERN AREAS SHOULD WARM UP A FEW DEGREES TODAY...THOUGH STAYED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. ALSO...SIMILARLY TO THIS
MORNING...STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
TONIGHT AS THE NAM IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS RETURN
TONIGHT AFTER SOME MIXING TODAY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS IN EARNEST MONDAY AND CONTINUES ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK TROUGH SKIRTING NE NM WEDNESDAY
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE PLAINS...PUTTING A TEMPORARY HALT ON THE WARMING TREND
FOR WED/THU. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH AND
NE...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT ATTM. THE WARMING
TREND RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT
ARRIVES AROUND THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME. COULD SEE SOME BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FRI/SAT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE STORM THAT PRODUCED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SONORA. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN
THIS FLOW WILL BRUSH THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND SEND A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH EAST IN THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE
WEST AND SOUTH WARM SLIGHTLY. MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND FROM THE RECENT
STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE...THIS MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER HE NORTHERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE FAR NORTHEAST TODAY. VENT
RATES WILL BE POOR IN CENTRAL ZONES...WHILE FAIR TO GOOD RATES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE FAR WEST AND EAST. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL LOWER A
BUNCH TODAY...BY 20 TO 40 PERCENT...MAKING THEM BETWEEN 40 AND 60
PERCENT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AND EAST SLOPE WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. NO BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHEAST. IN FACT
LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST. THUS ALL AREAS
WILL WARM NOTICEABLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. THERE
WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION TO WORRY ABOUT MONDAY. THE VENT RATES WILL
IMPROVE AS WELL...MOSTLY IN THE FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY...WITH SOME
VERY GOOD RATES IN THE WEST. RH RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RELAX A LITTLE ON TUESDAY. THE DRY AND
MILDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. VENT
RATES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES BUT MOSTLY
POOR IN THE EAST.

THE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE A BREAK IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A LITTLE STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE...DROPPING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE
EAST WHILE THE WEST REMAINS MILD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY THANKS TO
A STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS. THEY WILL DROP TO
FAIR TO POOR ON THURSDAY THOUGH.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY AND BUILD OVER THE STATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST. VENT RATES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR FRIDAY THEN
IMPROVE SOME SATURDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO INCREASE OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AGAIN. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON TAP FOR THE EAST. WE WILL KEEP IT
DRY OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WHILE TEMPERATURES LOWER SOME IN THE EAST
ON SUNDAY THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS65 KABQ 011738 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1038 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OUT EAST...WEAK
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR/IFR STRATUS IN PLACE FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EWD OVER THE ERN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING...IMPACTING
KTCC AND KROW WITH MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING
SPOTS OF WRN/NWRN NEW MEXICO IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VCNTY KFMN.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...253 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
QUIETER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT WEEK...OUTSIDE OF SOME
LOCALIZED FOG THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CHILLY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY...BUT A WARMING TREND IS ON TAP FOR THE WORK WEEK. BY
TUESDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
DETOUR THE WARMING TREND TEMPORARILY FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. THE
WARMING TREND WILL THEN RESUME FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WET GROUND AND HIGH DEWPOINTS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...AS EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO ERODE
A BIT IN SOME PLACES...BUT PATCHY FOG WILL STILL BE A CONCERN
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SOME SPOTS.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. PER RADAR IMAGERY...LOOKS LIKE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG IT AND UPSLOPE AREAS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO NE NM ALONG JOHNSON MESA/RATON RIDGE THIS
MORNING. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS...AND MUCH OF IT WILL
LIKELY BE DONE BY 18Z. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL
NOT CHANGE DRASTICALLY FROM YESTERDAY...AND IN MOST SPOTS...WILL
BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF YESTERDAYS READINGS. DRIER AIR DOES GET
USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SO CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TONIGHT DIMINISH SOME...THOUGH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND THE RESERVOIR OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE FAR AWAY. THEREFORE...COULD SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...
WESTERN AREAS SHOULD WARM UP A FEW DEGREES TODAY...THOUGH STAYED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. ALSO...SIMILARLY TO THIS
MORNING...STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
TONIGHT AS THE NAM IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS RETURN
TONIGHT AFTER SOME MIXING TODAY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS IN EARNEST MONDAY AND CONTINUES ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK TROUGH SKIRTING NE NM WEDNESDAY
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE PLAINS...PUTTING A TEMPORARY HALT ON THE WARMING TREND
FOR WED/THU. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH AND
NE...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT ATTM. THE WARMING
TREND RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT
ARRIVES AROUND THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME. COULD SEE SOME BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FRI/SAT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE STORM THAT PRODUCED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SONORA. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN
THIS FLOW WILL BRUSH THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND SEND A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH EAST IN THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE
WEST AND SOUTH WARM SLIGHTLY. MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND FROM THE RECENT
STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE...THIS MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER HE NORTHERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE FAR NORTHEAST TODAY. VENT
RATES WILL BE POOR IN CENTRAL ZONES...WHILE FAIR TO GOOD RATES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE FAR WEST AND EAST. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL LOWER A
BUNCH TODAY...BY 20 TO 40 PERCENT...MAKING THEM BETWEEN 40 AND 60
PERCENT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AND EAST SLOPE WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. NO BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHEAST. IN FACT
LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST. THUS ALL AREAS
WILL WARM NOTICEABLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. THERE
WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION TO WORRY ABOUT MONDAY. THE VENT RATES WILL
IMPROVE AS WELL...MOSTLY IN THE FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY...WITH SOME
VERY GOOD RATES IN THE WEST. RH RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RELAX A LITTLE ON TUESDAY. THE DRY AND
MILDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. VENT
RATES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES BUT MOSTLY
POOR IN THE EAST.

THE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE A BREAK IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A LITTLE STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE...DROPPING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE
EAST WHILE THE WEST REMAINS MILD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY THANKS TO
A STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS. THEY WILL DROP TO
FAIR TO POOR ON THURSDAY THOUGH.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY AND BUILD OVER THE STATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST. VENT RATES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR FRIDAY THEN
IMPROVE SOME SATURDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO INCREASE OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AGAIN. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON TAP FOR THE EAST. WE WILL KEEP IT
DRY OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WHILE TEMPERATURES LOWER SOME IN THE EAST
ON SUNDAY THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11












000
FXUS65 KABQ 011738 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1038 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN
WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. OUT EAST...WEAK
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL KEEP MVFR/IFR STRATUS IN PLACE FROM THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS SOUTH TO THE CENTRAL HIGHLANDS
AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THIS BAND OF LOW
CLOUDS WILL SHIFT EWD OVER THE ERN PLAINS DURING THE EVENING...IMPACTING
KTCC AND KROW WITH MVFR CIGS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IN LOW LYING
SPOTS OF WRN/NWRN NEW MEXICO IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN
OVERNIGHT/MONDAY MORNING...PRIMARILY VCNTY KFMN.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...253 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
QUIETER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT WEEK...OUTSIDE OF SOME
LOCALIZED FOG THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CHILLY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY...BUT A WARMING TREND IS ON TAP FOR THE WORK WEEK. BY
TUESDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
DETOUR THE WARMING TREND TEMPORARILY FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. THE
WARMING TREND WILL THEN RESUME FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WET GROUND AND HIGH DEWPOINTS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...AS EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO ERODE
A BIT IN SOME PLACES...BUT PATCHY FOG WILL STILL BE A CONCERN
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SOME SPOTS.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. PER RADAR IMAGERY...LOOKS LIKE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG IT AND UPSLOPE AREAS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO NE NM ALONG JOHNSON MESA/RATON RIDGE THIS
MORNING. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS...AND MUCH OF IT WILL
LIKELY BE DONE BY 18Z. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL
NOT CHANGE DRASTICALLY FROM YESTERDAY...AND IN MOST SPOTS...WILL
BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF YESTERDAYS READINGS. DRIER AIR DOES GET
USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SO CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TONIGHT DIMINISH SOME...THOUGH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND THE RESERVOIR OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE FAR AWAY. THEREFORE...COULD SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...
WESTERN AREAS SHOULD WARM UP A FEW DEGREES TODAY...THOUGH STAYED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. ALSO...SIMILARLY TO THIS
MORNING...STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
TONIGHT AS THE NAM IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS RETURN
TONIGHT AFTER SOME MIXING TODAY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS IN EARNEST MONDAY AND CONTINUES ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK TROUGH SKIRTING NE NM WEDNESDAY
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE PLAINS...PUTTING A TEMPORARY HALT ON THE WARMING TREND
FOR WED/THU. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH AND
NE...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT ATTM. THE WARMING
TREND RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT
ARRIVES AROUND THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME. COULD SEE SOME BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FRI/SAT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE STORM THAT PRODUCED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SONORA. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN
THIS FLOW WILL BRUSH THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND SEND A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH EAST IN THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE
WEST AND SOUTH WARM SLIGHTLY. MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND FROM THE RECENT
STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE...THIS MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER HE NORTHERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE FAR NORTHEAST TODAY. VENT
RATES WILL BE POOR IN CENTRAL ZONES...WHILE FAIR TO GOOD RATES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE FAR WEST AND EAST. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL LOWER A
BUNCH TODAY...BY 20 TO 40 PERCENT...MAKING THEM BETWEEN 40 AND 60
PERCENT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AND EAST SLOPE WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. NO BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHEAST. IN FACT
LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST. THUS ALL AREAS
WILL WARM NOTICEABLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. THERE
WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION TO WORRY ABOUT MONDAY. THE VENT RATES WILL
IMPROVE AS WELL...MOSTLY IN THE FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY...WITH SOME
VERY GOOD RATES IN THE WEST. RH RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RELAX A LITTLE ON TUESDAY. THE DRY AND
MILDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. VENT
RATES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES BUT MOSTLY
POOR IN THE EAST.

THE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE A BREAK IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A LITTLE STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE...DROPPING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE
EAST WHILE THE WEST REMAINS MILD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY THANKS TO
A STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS. THEY WILL DROP TO
FAIR TO POOR ON THURSDAY THOUGH.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY AND BUILD OVER THE STATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST. VENT RATES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR FRIDAY THEN
IMPROVE SOME SATURDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO INCREASE OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AGAIN. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON TAP FOR THE EAST. WE WILL KEEP IT
DRY OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WHILE TEMPERATURES LOWER SOME IN THE EAST
ON SUNDAY THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

11













000
FXUS65 KABQ 011144 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
444 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE LOCATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND
DENSE FOG. LOOKS LIKE GUP...SAF AND ROW SOCKED IN RIGHT NOW WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH FMN AND TCC NOT FAR BEHIND. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AT THESE SITES. REMAINING TAF SITES
HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MT OBSCURATIONS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO REFORM TONIGHT. TOUGH TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE BUT SEEMS LIKE THE
EASTERN PLAINS MOST LIKELY...WHICH INCLUDES TCC AND ROW. WILL CARRY
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AT THESE TWO SITES STARTING AT 08Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...253 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
QUIETER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT WEEK...OUTSIDE OF SOME
LOCALIZED FOG THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CHILLY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY...BUT A WARMING TREND IS ON TAP FOR THE WORK WEEK. BY
TUESDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
DETOUR THE WARMING TREND TEMPORARILY FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. THE
WARMING TREND WILL THEN RESUME FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WET GROUND AND HIGH DEWPOINTS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...AS EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO ERODE
A BIT IN SOME PLACES...BUT PATCHY FOG WILL STILL BE A CONCERN
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SOME SPOTS.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. PER RADAR IMAGERY...LOOKS LIKE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG IT AND UPSLOPE AREAS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO NE NM ALONG JOHNSON MESA/RATON RIDGE THIS
MORNING. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS...AND MUCH OF IT WILL
LIKELY BE DONE BY 18Z. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL
NOT CHANGE DRASTICALLY FROM YESTERDAY...AND IN MOST SPOTS...WILL
BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF YESTERDAYS READINGS. DRIER AIR DOES GET
USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SO CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TONIGHT DIMINISH SOME...THOUGH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND THE RESERVOIR OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE FAR AWAY. THEREFORE...COULD SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...
WESTERN AREAS SHOULD WARM UP A FEW DEGREES TODAY...THOUGH STAYED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. ALSO...SIMILARLY TO THIS
MORNING...STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
TONIGHT AS THE NAM IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS RETURN
TONIGHT AFTER SOME MIXING TODAY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS IN EARNEST MONDAY AND CONTINUES ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK TROUGH SKIRTING NE NM WEDNESDAY
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE PLAINS...PUTTING A TEMPORARY HALT ON THE WARMING TREND
FOR WED/THU. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH AND
NE...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT ATTM. THE WARMING
TREND RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT
ARRIVES AROUND THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME. COULD SEE SOME BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FRI/SAT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE STORM THAT PRODUCED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SONORA. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN
THIS FLOW WILL BRUSH THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND SEND A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH EAST IN THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE
WEST AND SOUTH WARM SLIGHTLY. MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND FROM THE RECENT
STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE...THIS MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER HE NORTHERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE FAR NORTHEAST TODAY. VENT
RATES WILL BE POOR IN CENTRAL ZONES...WHILE FAIR TO GOOD RATES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE FAR WEST AND EAST. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL LOWER A
BUNCH TODAY...BY 20 TO 40 PERCENT...MAKING THEM BETWEEN 40 AND 60
PERCENT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AND EAST SLOPE WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. NO BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHEAST. IN FACT
LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST. THUS ALL AREAS
WILL WARM NOTICEABLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. THERE
WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION TO WORRY ABOUT MONDAY. THE VENT RATES WILL
IMPROVE AS WELL...MOSTLY IN THE FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY...WITH SOME
VERY GOOD RATES IN THE WEST. RH RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RELAX A LITTLE ON TUESDAY. THE DRY AND
MILDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. VENT
RATES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES BUT MOSTLY
POOR IN THE EAST.

THE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE A BREAK IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A LITTLE STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE...DROPPING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE
EAST WHILE THE WEST REMAINS MILD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY THANKS TO
A STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS. THEY WILL DROP TO
FAIR TO POOR ON THURSDAY THOUGH.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY AND BUILD OVER THE STATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST. VENT RATES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR FRIDAY THEN
IMPROVE SOME SATURDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO INCREASE OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AGAIN. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON TAP FOR THE EAST. WE WILL KEEP IT
DRY OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WHILE TEMPERATURES LOWER SOME IN THE EAST
ON SUNDAY THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 011144 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
444 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
MAIN CONCERN THE NEXT FEW HOURS WILL BE LOCATION OF LOW CLOUDS AND
DENSE FOG. LOOKS LIKE GUP...SAF AND ROW SOCKED IN RIGHT NOW WITH
LIFR CONDITIONS WITH FMN AND TCC NOT FAR BEHIND. CIGS AND VSBYS WILL
IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING AT THESE SITES. REMAINING TAF SITES
HAVE VFR CONDITIONS AND SHOULD REMAIN THAT WAY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST COULD PRODUCE BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS AND MT OBSCURATIONS. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR LOW CLOUDS AND
FOG TO REFORM TONIGHT. TOUGH TO SAY EXACTLY WHERE BUT SEEMS LIKE THE
EASTERN PLAINS MOST LIKELY...WHICH INCLUDES TCC AND ROW. WILL CARRY
TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS AT THESE TWO SITES STARTING AT 08Z TONIGHT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...253 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
QUIETER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT WEEK...OUTSIDE OF SOME
LOCALIZED FOG THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CHILLY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY...BUT A WARMING TREND IS ON TAP FOR THE WORK WEEK. BY
TUESDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
DETOUR THE WARMING TREND TEMPORARILY FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. THE
WARMING TREND WILL THEN RESUME FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WET GROUND AND HIGH DEWPOINTS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...AS EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO ERODE
A BIT IN SOME PLACES...BUT PATCHY FOG WILL STILL BE A CONCERN
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SOME SPOTS.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. PER RADAR IMAGERY...LOOKS LIKE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG IT AND UPSLOPE AREAS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO NE NM ALONG JOHNSON MESA/RATON RIDGE THIS
MORNING. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS...AND MUCH OF IT WILL
LIKELY BE DONE BY 18Z. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL
NOT CHANGE DRASTICALLY FROM YESTERDAY...AND IN MOST SPOTS...WILL
BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF YESTERDAYS READINGS. DRIER AIR DOES GET
USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SO CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TONIGHT DIMINISH SOME...THOUGH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND THE RESERVOIR OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE FAR AWAY. THEREFORE...COULD SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...
WESTERN AREAS SHOULD WARM UP A FEW DEGREES TODAY...THOUGH STAYED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. ALSO...SIMILARLY TO THIS
MORNING...STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
TONIGHT AS THE NAM IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS RETURN
TONIGHT AFTER SOME MIXING TODAY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS IN EARNEST MONDAY AND CONTINUES ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK TROUGH SKIRTING NE NM WEDNESDAY
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE PLAINS...PUTTING A TEMPORARY HALT ON THE WARMING TREND
FOR WED/THU. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH AND
NE...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT ATTM. THE WARMING
TREND RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT
ARRIVES AROUND THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME. COULD SEE SOME BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FRI/SAT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE STORM THAT PRODUCED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SONORA. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN
THIS FLOW WILL BRUSH THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND SEND A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH EAST IN THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE
WEST AND SOUTH WARM SLIGHTLY. MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND FROM THE RECENT
STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE...THIS MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER HE NORTHERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE FAR NORTHEAST TODAY. VENT
RATES WILL BE POOR IN CENTRAL ZONES...WHILE FAIR TO GOOD RATES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE FAR WEST AND EAST. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL LOWER A
BUNCH TODAY...BY 20 TO 40 PERCENT...MAKING THEM BETWEEN 40 AND 60
PERCENT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AND EAST SLOPE WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. NO BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHEAST. IN FACT
LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST. THUS ALL AREAS
WILL WARM NOTICEABLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. THERE
WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION TO WORRY ABOUT MONDAY. THE VENT RATES WILL
IMPROVE AS WELL...MOSTLY IN THE FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY...WITH SOME
VERY GOOD RATES IN THE WEST. RH RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RELAX A LITTLE ON TUESDAY. THE DRY AND
MILDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. VENT
RATES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES BUT MOSTLY
POOR IN THE EAST.

THE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE A BREAK IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A LITTLE STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE...DROPPING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE
EAST WHILE THE WEST REMAINS MILD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY THANKS TO
A STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS. THEY WILL DROP TO
FAIR TO POOR ON THURSDAY THOUGH.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY AND BUILD OVER THE STATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST. VENT RATES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR FRIDAY THEN
IMPROVE SOME SATURDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO INCREASE OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AGAIN. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON TAP FOR THE EAST. WE WILL KEEP IT
DRY OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WHILE TEMPERATURES LOWER SOME IN THE EAST
ON SUNDAY THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 010953
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
253 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIETER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT WEEK...OUTSIDE OF SOME
LOCALIZED FOG THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CHILLY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY...BUT A WARMING TREND IS ON TAP FOR THE WORK WEEK. BY
TUESDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
DETOUR THE WARMING TREND TEMPORARILY FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. THE
WARMING TREND WILL THEN RESUME FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WET GROUND AND HIGH DEWPOINTS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...AS EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO ERODE
A BIT IN SOME PLACES...BUT PATCHY FOG WILL STILL BE A CONCERN
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SOME SPOTS.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. PER RADAR IMAGERY...LOOKS LIKE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG IT AND UPSLOPE AREAS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO NE NM ALONG JOHNSON MESA/RATON RIDGE THIS
MORNING. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS...AND MUCH OF IT WILL
LIKELY BE DONE BY 18Z. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL
NOT CHANGE DRASTICALLY FROM YESTERDAY...AND IN MOST SPOTS...WILL
BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF YESTERDAYS READINGS. DRIER AIR DOES GET
USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SO CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TONIGHT DIMINISH SOME...THOUGH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND THE RESERVOIR OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE FAR AWAY. THEREFORE...COULD SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...
WESTERN AREAS SHOULD WARM UP A FEW DEGREES TODAY...THOUGH STAYED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. ALSO...SIMILARLY TO THIS
MORNING...STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
TONIGHT AS THE NAM IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS RETURN
TONIGHT AFTER SOME MIXING TODAY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS IN EARNEST MONDAY AND CONTINUES ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK TROUGH SKIRTING NE NM WEDNESDAY
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE PLAINS...PUTTING A TEMPORARY HALT ON THE WARMING TREND
FOR WED/THU. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH AND
NE...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT ATTM. THE WARMING
TREND RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT
ARRIVES AROUND THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME. COULD SEE SOME BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FRI/SAT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS.


34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE STORM THAT PRODUCED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SONORA. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN
THIS FLOW WILL BRUSH THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND SEND A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH EAST IN THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE
WEST AND SOUTH WARM SLIGHTLY. MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND FROM THE RECENT
STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE...THIS MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER HE NORTHERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE FAR NORTHEAST TODAY. VENT
RATES WILL BE POOR IN CENTRAL ZONES...WHILE FAIR TO GOOD RATES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE FAR WEST AND EAST. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL LOWER A
BUNCH TODAY...BY 20 TO 40 PERCENT...MAKING THEM BETWEEN 40 AND 60
PERCENT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AND EAST SLOPE WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. NO BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHEAST. IN FACT
LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST. THUS ALL AREAS
WILL WARM NOTICEABLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. THERE
WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION TO WORRY ABOUT MONDAY. THE VENT RATES WILL
IMPROVE AS WELL...MOSTLY IN THE FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY...WITH SOME
VERY GOOD RATES IN THE WEST. RH RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RELAX A LITTLE ON TUESDAY. THE DRY AND
MILDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. VENT
RATES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES BUT MOSTLY
POOR IN THE EAST.

THE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE A BREAK IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A LITTLE STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE...DROPPING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE
EAST WHILE THE WEST REMAINS MILD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY THANKS TO
A STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS. THEY WILL DROP TO
FAIR TO POOR ON THURSDAY THOUGH.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY AND BUILD OVER THE STATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST. VENT RATES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR FRIDAY THEN
IMPROVE SOME SATURDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO INCREASE OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AGAIN. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON TAP FOR THE EAST. WE WILL KEEP IT
DRY OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WHILE TEMPERATURES LOWER SOME IN THE EAST
ON SUNDAY THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WILL
BECOME PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER
FOG MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT -SHSN AND
-SHRA EXPECTED THROUGH FCST PERIOD. MOST OF THE FOG AND LOW CIGS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. SHOULD BE VFR CONDITIONS MOST EVERYWHERE AFTER
ROUGHLY 18Z...THOUGH LOCALLY MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS LINGERING OVER
VCNTY OF NW PLATEAU NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  45  24  50  25 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  41  17  43  15 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  38  21  44  21 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  47  24  53  22 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  43  22  49  22 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  45  21  52  20 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  45  25  53  23 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  57  30  58  33 /   5   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  37  13  38  10 /   5   0   5   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  40  25  45  24 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  37  23  42  24 /   5   0   5   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  36  13  41  10 /  10   5   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  30  16  35  15 /  10   5   5   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  33  13  39  13 /  10   5   5   0
TAOS............................  38  16  44  16 /   5   0   0   0
MORA............................  40  22  45  20 /   5   5   5   0
ESPANOLA........................  45  24  49  24 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  38  24  44  25 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  43  22  47  24 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  46  27  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  47  28  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  48  25  55  26 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  47  27  53  28 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  50  24  56  25 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  47  27  53  29 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  51  29  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  41  24  49  25 /   5   0   5   0
TIJERAS.........................  43  25  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  43  20  50  22 /   5   0   5   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  39  24  47  27 /   5   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  46  27  49  27 /   5   0   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  50  30  52  32 /   5   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  46  28  51  32 /  10   5   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  35  22  48  23 /  20   5   5   0
RATON...........................  38  20  52  21 /  10   5   5   0
SPRINGER........................  40  20  51  22 /   5   5   5   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  38  21  50  24 /   5   0   5   0
CLAYTON.........................  38  22  56  32 /  10   0   5   0
ROY.............................  38  21  54  28 /   5   0   5   0
CONCHAS.........................  44  28  59  28 /   5   0   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  45  27  58  31 /   5   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  45  27  60  27 /   5   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  45  26  53  29 /   5   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  46  27  55  28 /   5   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  48  30  58  30 /   5   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  50  31  58  31 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  48  30  60  33 /   5   0   0   0
ELK.............................  46  29  56  33 /  10   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

34






000
FXUS65 KABQ 010953
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
253 AM MST SUN FEB 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
QUIETER WEATHER IS IN STORE FOR THE NEXT WEEK...OUTSIDE OF SOME
LOCALIZED FOG THIS MORNING AND AGAIN TONIGHT. A BACK DOOR COLD
FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES CHILLY FOR EASTERN NEW MEXICO
TODAY...BUT A WARMING TREND IS ON TAP FOR THE WORK WEEK. BY
TUESDAY... TEMPERATURES WILL BE UP TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE LATE WEDNESDAY WHICH WILL
DETOUR THE WARMING TREND TEMPORARILY FOR THE EASTERN PLAINS. A FEW
SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST WITH THE FRONT
ON WEDNESDAY...BUT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS WILL BE MINIMAL. THE
WARMING TREND WILL THEN RESUME FRIDAY AND CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WET GROUND AND HIGH DEWPOINTS HAVE KEPT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
WARMER THAN GUIDANCE...AS EXPECTED. LOW CLOUDS ARE STARTING TO ERODE
A BIT IN SOME PLACES...BUT PATCHY FOG WILL STILL BE A CONCERN
THROUGH AT LEAST SUNRISE. FOG MAY BE DENSE IN SOME SPOTS.

BACK DOOR COLD FRONT IS CURRENTLY KNOCKING ON THE DOOR OF NORTHEAST
NEW MEXICO. PER RADAR IMAGERY...LOOKS LIKE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS HAVE
DEVELOPED ALONG IT AND UPSLOPE AREAS IN SOUTHEAST COLORADO. SOME
LIGHT SNOW WILL MOVE INTO NE NM ALONG JOHNSON MESA/RATON RIDGE THIS
MORNING. NOT LOOKING FOR ANY ACCUMULATIONS...AND MUCH OF IT WILL
LIKELY BE DONE BY 18Z. MEANWHILE...THE FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO
SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS THE PLAINS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST WILL
NOT CHANGE DRASTICALLY FROM YESTERDAY...AND IN MOST SPOTS...WILL
BE WITHIN 5 DEGREES OF YESTERDAYS READINGS. DRIER AIR DOES GET
USHERED IN BEHIND THE FRONT...SO CHANCES FOR LOW CLOUDS AND FOG
TONIGHT DIMINISH SOME...THOUGH LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY WINDS RETURN BY
MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY THEREAFTER AND THE RESERVOIR OF HIGHER
DEWPOINTS WILL NOT BE FAR AWAY. THEREFORE...COULD SEE SOME LOW
CLOUDS/FOG ACROSS THE PECOS RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. MEANWHILE...
WESTERN AREAS SHOULD WARM UP A FEW DEGREES TODAY...THOUGH STAYED
ON THE COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. ALSO...SIMILARLY TO THIS
MORNING...STAYED ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE
TONIGHT AS THE NAM IS SUGGESTING THAT SOME HIGHER DEWPOINTS RETURN
TONIGHT AFTER SOME MIXING TODAY.

WARMING TREND BEGINS IN EARNEST MONDAY AND CONTINUES ON TUESDAY.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A WEAK TROUGH SKIRTING NE NM WEDNESDAY
AFTN AND OVERNIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE PLAINS...PUTTING A TEMPORARY HALT ON THE WARMING TREND
FOR WED/THU. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH AND
NE...BUT NOT LOOKING FOR ANYTHING SIGNIFICANT ATTM. THE WARMING
TREND RETURNS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BEFORE ANOTHER BACK DOOR FRONT
ARRIVES AROUND THE SUNDAY TIME FRAME. COULD SEE SOME BREEZY TO
LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS FRI/SAT ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MTN CHAIN AS LEE SIDE TROUGHING STRENGTHENS.


34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

THE STORM THAT PRODUCED WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN AND
CENTRAL NEW MEXICO CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH THROUGH SONORA. THE FLOW
ALOFT IS TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWESTERLY. A WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN
THIS FLOW WILL BRUSH THE NORTHEAST TODAY AND SEND A WEAK BACKDOOR
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS. THE FRONT WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH EAST IN THE NORTHEAST...WHILE THE
WEST AND SOUTH WARM SLIGHTLY. MOISTURE LEFT BEHIND FROM THE RECENT
STORM WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND AREAS OF FOG...LOCALLY
DENSE...THIS MORNING. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER HE NORTHERN
AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE FAR NORTHEAST TODAY. VENT
RATES WILL BE POOR IN CENTRAL ZONES...WHILE FAIR TO GOOD RATES ARE
FORECAST FOR THE FAR WEST AND EAST. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL LOWER A
BUNCH TODAY...BY 20 TO 40 PERCENT...MAKING THEM BETWEEN 40 AND 60
PERCENT BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

CENTRAL MOUNTAIN AND EAST SLOPE WINDS WILL INCREASE TONIGHT AHEAD
OF ANOTHER WEAK SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND CONTINUE INTO MONDAY. NO BACK
DOOR COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT INTO THE NORTHEAST. IN FACT
LEE SIDE TROUGHING WILL DEVELOP OVER THE NORTHEAST. THUS ALL AREAS
WILL WARM NOTICEABLY MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHEAST. THERE
WILL BE NO PRECIPITATION TO WORRY ABOUT MONDAY. THE VENT RATES WILL
IMPROVE AS WELL...MOSTLY IN THE FAIR TO GOOD CATEGORY...WITH SOME
VERY GOOD RATES IN THE WEST. RH RECOVERIES WILL REMAIN GOOD TO
EXCELLENT TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.

THE NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RELAX A LITTLE ON TUESDAY. THE DRY AND
MILDER WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGHS MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. VENT
RATES WILL BE FAIR TO GOOD IN THE WEST AND CENTRAL ZONES BUT MOSTLY
POOR IN THE EAST.

THE WARMING TREND WILL TAKE A BREAK IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY. A LITTLE STRONGER SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL ZIP SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE STATE...DROPPING A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE
EASTERN PLAINS. HIGHS WILL BE COOLER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY IN THE
EAST WHILE THE WEST REMAINS MILD WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LOW ELEVATION RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER
THE SAN JUAN AND SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. VENT RATES WILL IMPROVE WEDNESDAY THANKS TO
A STRONGER FLOW ALOFT AND HIGHER MIXING HEIGHTS. THEY WILL DROP TO
FAIR TO POOR ON THURSDAY THOUGH.

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY AND BUILD OVER THE STATE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. THE WARMING TREND WILL COMMENCE AGAIN ESPECIALLY IN
THE EAST. VENT RATES WILL REMAIN MOSTLY FAIR TO POOR FRIDAY THEN
IMPROVE SOME SATURDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT STARTS TO INCREASE OUT OF
THE NORTHWEST AGAIN. THE NEXT SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE COUNTRY SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WITH
ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON TAP FOR THE EAST. WE WILL KEEP IT
DRY OVER THE WEEKEND...AND WHILE TEMPERATURES LOWER SOME IN THE EAST
ON SUNDAY THEY WILL REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WILL
BECOME PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER
FOG MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT -SHSN AND
-SHRA EXPECTED THROUGH FCST PERIOD. MOST OF THE FOG AND LOW CIGS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. SHOULD BE VFR CONDITIONS MOST EVERYWHERE AFTER
ROUGHLY 18Z...THOUGH LOCALLY MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS LINGERING OVER
VCNTY OF NW PLATEAU NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  45  24  50  25 /   0   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  41  17  43  15 /   0   0   0   0
CUBA............................  38  21  44  21 /   0   0   0   0
GALLUP..........................  47  24  53  22 /   0   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  43  22  49  22 /   0   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  45  21  52  20 /   0   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  45  25  53  23 /   0   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  57  30  58  33 /   5   0   0   0
CHAMA...........................  37  13  38  10 /   5   0   5   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  40  25  45  24 /   0   0   0   0
PECOS...........................  37  23  42  24 /   5   0   5   0
CERRO/QUESTA....................  36  13  41  10 /  10   5   5   0
RED RIVER.......................  30  16  35  15 /  10   5   5   0
ANGEL FIRE......................  33  13  39  13 /  10   5   5   0
TAOS............................  38  16  44  16 /   5   0   0   0
MORA............................  40  22  45  20 /   5   5   5   0
ESPANOLA........................  45  24  49  24 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE........................  38  24  44  25 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  43  22  47  24 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  46  27  52  29 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  47  28  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  48  25  55  26 /   0   0   0   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  47  27  53  28 /   0   0   0   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  50  24  56  25 /   0   0   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  47  27  53  29 /   0   0   0   0
SOCORRO.........................  51  29  58  32 /   0   0   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  41  24  49  25 /   5   0   5   0
TIJERAS.........................  43  25  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  43  20  50  22 /   5   0   5   0
CLINES CORNERS..................  39  24  47  27 /   5   0   0   0
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  46  27  49  27 /   5   0   5   0
CARRIZOZO.......................  50  30  52  32 /   5   0   0   0
RUIDOSO.........................  46  28  51  32 /  10   5   0   0
CAPULIN.........................  35  22  48  23 /  20   5   5   0
RATON...........................  38  20  52  21 /  10   5   5   0
SPRINGER........................  40  20  51  22 /   5   5   5   0
LAS VEGAS.......................  38  21  50  24 /   5   0   5   0
CLAYTON.........................  38  22  56  32 /  10   0   5   0
ROY.............................  38  21  54  28 /   5   0   5   0
CONCHAS.........................  44  28  59  28 /   5   0   5   0
SANTA ROSA......................  45  27  58  31 /   5   0   0   0
TUCUMCARI.......................  45  27  60  27 /   5   0   0   0
CLOVIS..........................  45  26  53  29 /   5   0   0   0
PORTALES........................  46  27  55  28 /   5   0   0   0
FORT SUMNER.....................  48  30  58  30 /   5   0   0   0
ROSWELL.........................  50  31  58  31 /   5   0   0   0
PICACHO.........................  48  30  60  33 /   5   0   0   0
ELK.............................  46  29  56  33 /  10   5   0   0

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

34







000
FXUS65 KABQ 010601 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1101 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WILL
BECOME PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER
FOG MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT -SHSN AND
-SHRA EXPECTED THROUGH FCST PERIOD. MOST OF THE FOG AND LOW CIGS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. SHOULD BE VFR CONDITIONS MOST EVERYWHERE AFTER
ROUGHLY 18Z...THOUGH LOCALLY MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS LINGERING OVER
VCNTY OF NW PLATEAU NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...957 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.UPDATE...
QUICK ZFP UPDATE TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/FREEZING FOG
TONIGHT...AND TRIM POPS ESPECIALLY FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
PROBABLY HAVE NOT TRIMMED ENOUGH. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW BUT DID NOT MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NEAR RATON PASS WHERE ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A PROLONGED WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN. EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF COOL DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CONGEALING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE TAKING
A TURN TO THE EAST OVER MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
PWATS AT KABQ RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL JAN/FEB VALUES. SPEAKING
OF PWATS...VALUES DID SPIKE UP TO ABOVE 0.61 INCH FOR 3 UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS IN A ROW...MAXING AT 0.65 INCH AT 00Z AND YESTERDAY AT
12Z...ONLY 0.07 FROM AN ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORD AND IN-LINE WITH
MODEL FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER NEAR RATON PASS THANKS TO UPSLOPE FROM A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE AND TEMPERATURES WON`T BE COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR CONCERN...SO ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT
BE REQUIRED. WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM
GIVEN ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONGOING AND RELATIVE WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY OTHER POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD WORTHY OF
MENTION FOR TONIGHT IS FREEZING FOG...MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU...WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU AND UPPER/MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...ALL CONDITIONAL ON AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. FOG MAY NOT DEVELOP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.

A PROLONGED WARM-UP TO BEGIN TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH MUTED SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND
THEN GO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A SHORT-LIVED COOL DOWN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
TRANSVERSES THE ROCKIES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
PICKUP WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE
SHORT-TERM.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN SONORA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE THE WEST WARMS SLIGHTLY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS
MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SEWD THROUGH ERN
COLORADO. AS A RESULT...VENTILATION RATES WILL INCREASE MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR
VENTILATION RATES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. RATES
TREND SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD THURSDAY.

MODELS STILL TRYING TO SETTLE ON THE STRENGTH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY. GFS IS STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS A STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE FAR NE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. ECMWF
REMAINS DRY AND ONLY BRINGS SLIGHT COOLING TO THE FAR NE PLAINS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 010601 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1101 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WILL
BECOME PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER
FOG MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT -SHSN AND
-SHRA EXPECTED THROUGH FCST PERIOD. MOST OF THE FOG AND LOW CIGS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. SHOULD BE VFR CONDITIONS MOST EVERYWHERE AFTER
ROUGHLY 18Z...THOUGH LOCALLY MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS LINGERING OVER
VCNTY OF NW PLATEAU NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...957 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.UPDATE...
QUICK ZFP UPDATE TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/FREEZING FOG
TONIGHT...AND TRIM POPS ESPECIALLY FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
PROBABLY HAVE NOT TRIMMED ENOUGH. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW BUT DID NOT MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NEAR RATON PASS WHERE ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A PROLONGED WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN. EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF COOL DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CONGEALING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE TAKING
A TURN TO THE EAST OVER MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
PWATS AT KABQ RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL JAN/FEB VALUES. SPEAKING
OF PWATS...VALUES DID SPIKE UP TO ABOVE 0.61 INCH FOR 3 UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS IN A ROW...MAXING AT 0.65 INCH AT 00Z AND YESTERDAY AT
12Z...ONLY 0.07 FROM AN ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORD AND IN-LINE WITH
MODEL FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER NEAR RATON PASS THANKS TO UPSLOPE FROM A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE AND TEMPERATURES WON`T BE COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR CONCERN...SO ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT
BE REQUIRED. WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM
GIVEN ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONGOING AND RELATIVE WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY OTHER POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD WORTHY OF
MENTION FOR TONIGHT IS FREEZING FOG...MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU...WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU AND UPPER/MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...ALL CONDITIONAL ON AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. FOG MAY NOT DEVELOP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.

A PROLONGED WARM-UP TO BEGIN TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH MUTED SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND
THEN GO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A SHORT-LIVED COOL DOWN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
TRANSVERSES THE ROCKIES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
PICKUP WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE
SHORT-TERM.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN SONORA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE THE WEST WARMS SLIGHTLY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS
MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SEWD THROUGH ERN
COLORADO. AS A RESULT...VENTILATION RATES WILL INCREASE MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR
VENTILATION RATES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. RATES
TREND SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD THURSDAY.

MODELS STILL TRYING TO SETTLE ON THE STRENGTH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY. GFS IS STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS A STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE FAR NE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. ECMWF
REMAINS DRY AND ONLY BRINGS SLIGHT COOLING TO THE FAR NE PLAINS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 010601 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1101 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WILL
BECOME PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER
FOG MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT -SHSN AND
-SHRA EXPECTED THROUGH FCST PERIOD. MOST OF THE FOG AND LOW CIGS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. SHOULD BE VFR CONDITIONS MOST EVERYWHERE AFTER
ROUGHLY 18Z...THOUGH LOCALLY MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS LINGERING OVER
VCNTY OF NW PLATEAU NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...957 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.UPDATE...
QUICK ZFP UPDATE TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/FREEZING FOG
TONIGHT...AND TRIM POPS ESPECIALLY FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
PROBABLY HAVE NOT TRIMMED ENOUGH. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW BUT DID NOT MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NEAR RATON PASS WHERE ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A PROLONGED WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN. EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF COOL DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CONGEALING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE TAKING
A TURN TO THE EAST OVER MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
PWATS AT KABQ RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL JAN/FEB VALUES. SPEAKING
OF PWATS...VALUES DID SPIKE UP TO ABOVE 0.61 INCH FOR 3 UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS IN A ROW...MAXING AT 0.65 INCH AT 00Z AND YESTERDAY AT
12Z...ONLY 0.07 FROM AN ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORD AND IN-LINE WITH
MODEL FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER NEAR RATON PASS THANKS TO UPSLOPE FROM A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE AND TEMPERATURES WON`T BE COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR CONCERN...SO ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT
BE REQUIRED. WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM
GIVEN ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONGOING AND RELATIVE WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY OTHER POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD WORTHY OF
MENTION FOR TONIGHT IS FREEZING FOG...MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU...WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU AND UPPER/MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...ALL CONDITIONAL ON AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. FOG MAY NOT DEVELOP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.

A PROLONGED WARM-UP TO BEGIN TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH MUTED SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND
THEN GO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A SHORT-LIVED COOL DOWN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
TRANSVERSES THE ROCKIES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
PICKUP WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE
SHORT-TERM.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN SONORA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE THE WEST WARMS SLIGHTLY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS
MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SEWD THROUGH ERN
COLORADO. AS A RESULT...VENTILATION RATES WILL INCREASE MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR
VENTILATION RATES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. RATES
TREND SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD THURSDAY.

MODELS STILL TRYING TO SETTLE ON THE STRENGTH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY. GFS IS STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS A STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE FAR NE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. ECMWF
REMAINS DRY AND ONLY BRINGS SLIGHT COOLING TO THE FAR NE PLAINS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$










000
FXUS65 KABQ 010601 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1101 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
THE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WILL
BECOME PERHAPS A LITTLE LESS WIDESPREAD AFTER MIDNIGHT...HOWEVER
FOG MAY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. NO FURTHER SIGNIFICANT -SHSN AND
-SHRA EXPECTED THROUGH FCST PERIOD. MOST OF THE FOG AND LOW CIGS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY
AFTERNOON SUNDAY. SHOULD BE VFR CONDITIONS MOST EVERYWHERE AFTER
ROUGHLY 18Z...THOUGH LOCALLY MVFR OR IFR CONDITIONS LINGERING OVER
VCNTY OF NW PLATEAU NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION.

43

&&

PREV DISCUSSION...957 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.UPDATE...
QUICK ZFP UPDATE TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/FREEZING FOG
TONIGHT...AND TRIM POPS ESPECIALLY FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
PROBABLY HAVE NOT TRIMMED ENOUGH. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW BUT DID NOT MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NEAR RATON PASS WHERE ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A PROLONGED WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN. EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF COOL DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CONGEALING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE TAKING
A TURN TO THE EAST OVER MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
PWATS AT KABQ RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL JAN/FEB VALUES. SPEAKING
OF PWATS...VALUES DID SPIKE UP TO ABOVE 0.61 INCH FOR 3 UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS IN A ROW...MAXING AT 0.65 INCH AT 00Z AND YESTERDAY AT
12Z...ONLY 0.07 FROM AN ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORD AND IN-LINE WITH
MODEL FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER NEAR RATON PASS THANKS TO UPSLOPE FROM A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE AND TEMPERATURES WON`T BE COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR CONCERN...SO ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT
BE REQUIRED. WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM
GIVEN ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONGOING AND RELATIVE WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY OTHER POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD WORTHY OF
MENTION FOR TONIGHT IS FREEZING FOG...MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU...WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU AND UPPER/MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...ALL CONDITIONAL ON AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. FOG MAY NOT DEVELOP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.

A PROLONGED WARM-UP TO BEGIN TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH MUTED SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND
THEN GO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A SHORT-LIVED COOL DOWN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
TRANSVERSES THE ROCKIES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
PICKUP WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE
SHORT-TERM.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN SONORA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE THE WEST WARMS SLIGHTLY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS
MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SEWD THROUGH ERN
COLORADO. AS A RESULT...VENTILATION RATES WILL INCREASE MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR
VENTILATION RATES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. RATES
TREND SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD THURSDAY.

MODELS STILL TRYING TO SETTLE ON THE STRENGTH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY. GFS IS STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS A STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE FAR NE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. ECMWF
REMAINS DRY AND ONLY BRINGS SLIGHT COOLING TO THE FAR NE PLAINS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 010457
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
957 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK ZFP UPDATE TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/FREEZING FOG
TONIGHT...AND TRIM POPS ESPECIALLY FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
PROBABLY HAVE NOT TRIMMED ENOUGH. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW BUT DID NOT MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...514 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH MOUNTAINS
OBSCURED WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH IT MAY TREND MORE
TOWARD FOG THAN LOW OVERCAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORN. AT
LEAST A FEW AREAS OF -SHSN AND -SHRA FROM THE VCNTY OF THE NW MTS
EAST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS INTO THE NE PLAINS...THOUGH THAT
WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN ROUGHLY 03Z AND 08Z. AREAS OF BR/FZFG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT PARTIALLY CLEAR...
CREATING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NEAR RATON PASS WHERE ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A PROLONGED WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN. EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF COOL DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CONGEALING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE TAKING
A TURN TO THE EAST OVER MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
PWATS AT KABQ RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL JAN/FEB VALUES. SPEAKING
OF PWATS...VALUES DID SPIKE UP TO ABOVE 0.61 INCH FOR 3 UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS IN A ROW...MAXING AT 0.65 INCH AT 00Z AND YESTERDAY AT
12Z...ONLY 0.07 FROM AN ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORD AND IN-LINE WITH
MODEL FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER NEAR RATON PASS THANKS TO UPSLOPE FROM A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE AND TEMPERATURES WON`T BE COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR CONCERN...SO ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT
BE REQUIRED. WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM
GIVEN ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONGOING AND RELATIVE WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY OTHER POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD WORTHY OF
MENTION FOR TONIGHT IS FREEZING FOG...MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU...WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU AND UPPER/MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...ALL CONDITIONAL ON AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. FOG MAY NOT DEVELOP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.

A PROLONGED WARM-UP TO BEGIN TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH MUTED SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND
THEN GO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A SHORT-LIVED COOL DOWN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
TRANSVERSES THE ROCKIES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
PICKUP WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE
SHORT-TERM.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN SONORA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE THE WEST WARMS SLIGHTLY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS
MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SEWD THROUGH ERN
COLORADO. AS A RESULT...VENTILATION RATES WILL INCREASE MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR
VENTILATION RATES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. RATES
TREND SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD THURSDAY.

MODELS STILL TRYING TO SETTLE ON THE STRENGTH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY. GFS IS STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS A STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE FAR NE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. ECMWF
REMAINS DRY AND ONLY BRINGS SLIGHT COOLING TO THE FAR NE PLAINS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 010457
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
957 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK ZFP UPDATE TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/FREEZING FOG
TONIGHT...AND TRIM POPS ESPECIALLY FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
PROBABLY HAVE NOT TRIMMED ENOUGH. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW BUT DID NOT MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...514 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH MOUNTAINS
OBSCURED WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH IT MAY TREND MORE
TOWARD FOG THAN LOW OVERCAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORN. AT
LEAST A FEW AREAS OF -SHSN AND -SHRA FROM THE VCNTY OF THE NW MTS
EAST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS INTO THE NE PLAINS...THOUGH THAT
WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN ROUGHLY 03Z AND 08Z. AREAS OF BR/FZFG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT PARTIALLY CLEAR...
CREATING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NEAR RATON PASS WHERE ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A PROLONGED WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN. EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF COOL DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CONGEALING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE TAKING
A TURN TO THE EAST OVER MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
PWATS AT KABQ RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL JAN/FEB VALUES. SPEAKING
OF PWATS...VALUES DID SPIKE UP TO ABOVE 0.61 INCH FOR 3 UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS IN A ROW...MAXING AT 0.65 INCH AT 00Z AND YESTERDAY AT
12Z...ONLY 0.07 FROM AN ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORD AND IN-LINE WITH
MODEL FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER NEAR RATON PASS THANKS TO UPSLOPE FROM A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE AND TEMPERATURES WON`T BE COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR CONCERN...SO ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT
BE REQUIRED. WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM
GIVEN ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONGOING AND RELATIVE WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY OTHER POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD WORTHY OF
MENTION FOR TONIGHT IS FREEZING FOG...MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU...WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU AND UPPER/MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...ALL CONDITIONAL ON AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. FOG MAY NOT DEVELOP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.

A PROLONGED WARM-UP TO BEGIN TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH MUTED SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND
THEN GO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A SHORT-LIVED COOL DOWN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
TRANSVERSES THE ROCKIES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
PICKUP WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE
SHORT-TERM.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN SONORA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE THE WEST WARMS SLIGHTLY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS
MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SEWD THROUGH ERN
COLORADO. AS A RESULT...VENTILATION RATES WILL INCREASE MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR
VENTILATION RATES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. RATES
TREND SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD THURSDAY.

MODELS STILL TRYING TO SETTLE ON THE STRENGTH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY. GFS IS STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS A STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE FAR NE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. ECMWF
REMAINS DRY AND ONLY BRINGS SLIGHT COOLING TO THE FAR NE PLAINS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 010457
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
957 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK ZFP UPDATE TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/FREEZING FOG
TONIGHT...AND TRIM POPS ESPECIALLY FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
PROBABLY HAVE NOT TRIMMED ENOUGH. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW BUT DID NOT MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...514 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH MOUNTAINS
OBSCURED WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH IT MAY TREND MORE
TOWARD FOG THAN LOW OVERCAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORN. AT
LEAST A FEW AREAS OF -SHSN AND -SHRA FROM THE VCNTY OF THE NW MTS
EAST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS INTO THE NE PLAINS...THOUGH THAT
WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN ROUGHLY 03Z AND 08Z. AREAS OF BR/FZFG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT PARTIALLY CLEAR...
CREATING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NEAR RATON PASS WHERE ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A PROLONGED WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN. EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF COOL DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CONGEALING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE TAKING
A TURN TO THE EAST OVER MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
PWATS AT KABQ RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL JAN/FEB VALUES. SPEAKING
OF PWATS...VALUES DID SPIKE UP TO ABOVE 0.61 INCH FOR 3 UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS IN A ROW...MAXING AT 0.65 INCH AT 00Z AND YESTERDAY AT
12Z...ONLY 0.07 FROM AN ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORD AND IN-LINE WITH
MODEL FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER NEAR RATON PASS THANKS TO UPSLOPE FROM A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE AND TEMPERATURES WON`T BE COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR CONCERN...SO ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT
BE REQUIRED. WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM
GIVEN ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONGOING AND RELATIVE WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY OTHER POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD WORTHY OF
MENTION FOR TONIGHT IS FREEZING FOG...MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU...WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU AND UPPER/MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...ALL CONDITIONAL ON AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. FOG MAY NOT DEVELOP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.

A PROLONGED WARM-UP TO BEGIN TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH MUTED SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND
THEN GO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A SHORT-LIVED COOL DOWN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
TRANSVERSES THE ROCKIES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
PICKUP WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE
SHORT-TERM.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN SONORA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE THE WEST WARMS SLIGHTLY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS
MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SEWD THROUGH ERN
COLORADO. AS A RESULT...VENTILATION RATES WILL INCREASE MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR
VENTILATION RATES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. RATES
TREND SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD THURSDAY.

MODELS STILL TRYING TO SETTLE ON THE STRENGTH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY. GFS IS STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS A STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE FAR NE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. ECMWF
REMAINS DRY AND ONLY BRINGS SLIGHT COOLING TO THE FAR NE PLAINS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 010457
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
957 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK ZFP UPDATE TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/FREEZING FOG
TONIGHT...AND TRIM POPS ESPECIALLY FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
PROBABLY HAVE NOT TRIMMED ENOUGH. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW BUT DID NOT MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...514 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH MOUNTAINS
OBSCURED WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH IT MAY TREND MORE
TOWARD FOG THAN LOW OVERCAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORN. AT
LEAST A FEW AREAS OF -SHSN AND -SHRA FROM THE VCNTY OF THE NW MTS
EAST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS INTO THE NE PLAINS...THOUGH THAT
WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN ROUGHLY 03Z AND 08Z. AREAS OF BR/FZFG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT PARTIALLY CLEAR...
CREATING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NEAR RATON PASS WHERE ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A PROLONGED WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN. EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF COOL DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CONGEALING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE TAKING
A TURN TO THE EAST OVER MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
PWATS AT KABQ RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL JAN/FEB VALUES. SPEAKING
OF PWATS...VALUES DID SPIKE UP TO ABOVE 0.61 INCH FOR 3 UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS IN A ROW...MAXING AT 0.65 INCH AT 00Z AND YESTERDAY AT
12Z...ONLY 0.07 FROM AN ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORD AND IN-LINE WITH
MODEL FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER NEAR RATON PASS THANKS TO UPSLOPE FROM A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE AND TEMPERATURES WON`T BE COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR CONCERN...SO ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT
BE REQUIRED. WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM
GIVEN ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONGOING AND RELATIVE WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY OTHER POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD WORTHY OF
MENTION FOR TONIGHT IS FREEZING FOG...MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU...WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU AND UPPER/MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...ALL CONDITIONAL ON AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. FOG MAY NOT DEVELOP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.

A PROLONGED WARM-UP TO BEGIN TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH MUTED SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND
THEN GO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A SHORT-LIVED COOL DOWN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
TRANSVERSES THE ROCKIES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
PICKUP WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE
SHORT-TERM.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN SONORA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE THE WEST WARMS SLIGHTLY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS
MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SEWD THROUGH ERN
COLORADO. AS A RESULT...VENTILATION RATES WILL INCREASE MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR
VENTILATION RATES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. RATES
TREND SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD THURSDAY.

MODELS STILL TRYING TO SETTLE ON THE STRENGTH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY. GFS IS STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS A STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE FAR NE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. ECMWF
REMAINS DRY AND ONLY BRINGS SLIGHT COOLING TO THE FAR NE PLAINS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 010457
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
957 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK ZFP UPDATE TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/FREEZING FOG
TONIGHT...AND TRIM POPS ESPECIALLY FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
PROBABLY HAVE NOT TRIMMED ENOUGH. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW BUT DID NOT MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...514 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH MOUNTAINS
OBSCURED WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH IT MAY TREND MORE
TOWARD FOG THAN LOW OVERCAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORN. AT
LEAST A FEW AREAS OF -SHSN AND -SHRA FROM THE VCNTY OF THE NW MTS
EAST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS INTO THE NE PLAINS...THOUGH THAT
WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN ROUGHLY 03Z AND 08Z. AREAS OF BR/FZFG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT PARTIALLY CLEAR...
CREATING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NEAR RATON PASS WHERE ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A PROLONGED WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN. EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF COOL DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CONGEALING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE TAKING
A TURN TO THE EAST OVER MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
PWATS AT KABQ RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL JAN/FEB VALUES. SPEAKING
OF PWATS...VALUES DID SPIKE UP TO ABOVE 0.61 INCH FOR 3 UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS IN A ROW...MAXING AT 0.65 INCH AT 00Z AND YESTERDAY AT
12Z...ONLY 0.07 FROM AN ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORD AND IN-LINE WITH
MODEL FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER NEAR RATON PASS THANKS TO UPSLOPE FROM A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE AND TEMPERATURES WON`T BE COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR CONCERN...SO ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT
BE REQUIRED. WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM
GIVEN ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONGOING AND RELATIVE WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY OTHER POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD WORTHY OF
MENTION FOR TONIGHT IS FREEZING FOG...MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU...WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU AND UPPER/MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...ALL CONDITIONAL ON AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. FOG MAY NOT DEVELOP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.

A PROLONGED WARM-UP TO BEGIN TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH MUTED SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND
THEN GO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A SHORT-LIVED COOL DOWN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
TRANSVERSES THE ROCKIES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
PICKUP WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE
SHORT-TERM.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN SONORA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE THE WEST WARMS SLIGHTLY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS
MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SEWD THROUGH ERN
COLORADO. AS A RESULT...VENTILATION RATES WILL INCREASE MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR
VENTILATION RATES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. RATES
TREND SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD THURSDAY.

MODELS STILL TRYING TO SETTLE ON THE STRENGTH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY. GFS IS STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS A STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE FAR NE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. ECMWF
REMAINS DRY AND ONLY BRINGS SLIGHT COOLING TO THE FAR NE PLAINS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$







000
FXUS65 KABQ 010457
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
957 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
QUICK ZFP UPDATE TO INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF FOG/FREEZING FOG
TONIGHT...AND TRIM POPS ESPECIALLY FOR AFTER MIDNIGHT...ALTHOUGH
PROBABLY HAVE NOT TRIMMED ENOUGH. LATEST GUIDANCE ALSO SUGGESTS
SOME OVERNIGHT LOWS MAY BE A BIT TOO LOW BUT DID NOT MAKE ANY
ADJUSTMENTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...514 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH MOUNTAINS
OBSCURED WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH IT MAY TREND MORE
TOWARD FOG THAN LOW OVERCAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORN. AT
LEAST A FEW AREAS OF -SHSN AND -SHRA FROM THE VCNTY OF THE NW MTS
EAST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS INTO THE NE PLAINS...THOUGH THAT
WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN ROUGHLY 03Z AND 08Z. AREAS OF BR/FZFG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT PARTIALLY CLEAR...
CREATING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NEAR RATON PASS WHERE ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A PROLONGED WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN. EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF COOL DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CONGEALING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE TAKING
A TURN TO THE EAST OVER MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
PWATS AT KABQ RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL JAN/FEB VALUES. SPEAKING
OF PWATS...VALUES DID SPIKE UP TO ABOVE 0.61 INCH FOR 3 UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS IN A ROW...MAXING AT 0.65 INCH AT 00Z AND YESTERDAY AT
12Z...ONLY 0.07 FROM AN ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORD AND IN-LINE WITH
MODEL FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER NEAR RATON PASS THANKS TO UPSLOPE FROM A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE AND TEMPERATURES WON`T BE COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR CONCERN...SO ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT
BE REQUIRED. WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM
GIVEN ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONGOING AND RELATIVE WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY OTHER POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD WORTHY OF
MENTION FOR TONIGHT IS FREEZING FOG...MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU...WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU AND UPPER/MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...ALL CONDITIONAL ON AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. FOG MAY NOT DEVELOP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.

A PROLONGED WARM-UP TO BEGIN TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH MUTED SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND
THEN GO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A SHORT-LIVED COOL DOWN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
TRANSVERSES THE ROCKIES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
PICKUP WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE
SHORT-TERM.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN SONORA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE THE WEST WARMS SLIGHTLY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS
MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SEWD THROUGH ERN
COLORADO. AS A RESULT...VENTILATION RATES WILL INCREASE MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR
VENTILATION RATES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. RATES
TREND SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD THURSDAY.

MODELS STILL TRYING TO SETTLE ON THE STRENGTH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY. GFS IS STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS A STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE FAR NE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. ECMWF
REMAINS DRY AND ONLY BRINGS SLIGHT COOLING TO THE FAR NE PLAINS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 010014 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
514 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH MOUNTAINS
OBSCURED WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH IT MAY TREND MORE
TOWARD FOG THAN LOW OVERCAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORN. AT
LEAST A FEW AREAS OF -SHSN AND -SHRA FROM THE VCNTY OF THE NW MTS
EAST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS INTO THE NE PLAINS...THOUGH THAT
WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN ROUGHLY 03Z AND 08Z. AREAS OF BR/FZFG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT PARTIALLY CLEAR...
CREATING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NEAR RATON PASS WHERE ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A PROLONGED WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN. EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF COOL DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CONGEALING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE TAKING
A TURN TO THE EAST OVER MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
PWATS AT KABQ RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL JAN/FEB VALUES. SPEAKING
OF PWATS...VALUES DID SPIKE UP TO ABOVE 0.61 INCH FOR 3 UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS IN A ROW...MAXING AT 0.65 INCH AT 00Z AND YESTERDAY AT
12Z...ONLY 0.07 FROM AN ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORD AND IN-LINE WITH
MODEL FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER NEAR RATON PASS THANKS TO UPSLOPE FROM A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE AND TEMPERATURES WON`T BE COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR CONCERN...SO ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT
BE REQUIRED. WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM
GIVEN ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONGOING AND RELATIVE WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY OTHER POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD WORTHY OF
MENTION FOR TONIGHT IS FREEZING FOG...MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU...WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU AND UPPER/MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...ALL CONDITIONAL ON AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. FOG MAY NOT DEVELOP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.

A PROLONGED WARM-UP TO BEGIN TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH MUTED SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND
THEN GO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A SHORT-LIVED COOL DOWN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
TRANSVERSES THE ROCKIES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
PICKUP WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE
SHORT-TERM.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN SONORA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE THE WEST WARMS SLIGHTLY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS
MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SEWD THROUGH ERN
COLORADO. AS A RESULT...VENTILATION RATES WILL INCREASE MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR
VENTILATION RATES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. RATES
TREND SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD THURSDAY.

MODELS STILL TRYING TO SETTLE ON THE STRENGTH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY. GFS IS STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS A STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE FAR NE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. ECMWF
REMAINS DRY AND ONLY BRINGS SLIGHT COOLING TO THE FAR NE PLAINS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510>515-526.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 010014 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
514 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH MOUNTAINS
OBSCURED WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH IT MAY TREND MORE
TOWARD FOG THAN LOW OVERCAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORN. AT
LEAST A FEW AREAS OF -SHSN AND -SHRA FROM THE VCNTY OF THE NW MTS
EAST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS INTO THE NE PLAINS...THOUGH THAT
WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN ROUGHLY 03Z AND 08Z. AREAS OF BR/FZFG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT PARTIALLY CLEAR...
CREATING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NEAR RATON PASS WHERE ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A PROLONGED WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN. EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF COOL DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CONGEALING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE TAKING
A TURN TO THE EAST OVER MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
PWATS AT KABQ RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL JAN/FEB VALUES. SPEAKING
OF PWATS...VALUES DID SPIKE UP TO ABOVE 0.61 INCH FOR 3 UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS IN A ROW...MAXING AT 0.65 INCH AT 00Z AND YESTERDAY AT
12Z...ONLY 0.07 FROM AN ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORD AND IN-LINE WITH
MODEL FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER NEAR RATON PASS THANKS TO UPSLOPE FROM A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE AND TEMPERATURES WON`T BE COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR CONCERN...SO ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT
BE REQUIRED. WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM
GIVEN ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONGOING AND RELATIVE WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY OTHER POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD WORTHY OF
MENTION FOR TONIGHT IS FREEZING FOG...MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU...WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU AND UPPER/MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...ALL CONDITIONAL ON AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. FOG MAY NOT DEVELOP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.

A PROLONGED WARM-UP TO BEGIN TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH MUTED SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND
THEN GO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A SHORT-LIVED COOL DOWN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
TRANSVERSES THE ROCKIES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
PICKUP WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE
SHORT-TERM.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN SONORA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE THE WEST WARMS SLIGHTLY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS
MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SEWD THROUGH ERN
COLORADO. AS A RESULT...VENTILATION RATES WILL INCREASE MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR
VENTILATION RATES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. RATES
TREND SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD THURSDAY.

MODELS STILL TRYING TO SETTLE ON THE STRENGTH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY. GFS IS STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS A STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE FAR NE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. ECMWF
REMAINS DRY AND ONLY BRINGS SLIGHT COOLING TO THE FAR NE PLAINS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510>515-526.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 010014 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
514 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH MOUNTAINS
OBSCURED WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH IT MAY TREND MORE
TOWARD FOG THAN LOW OVERCAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORN. AT
LEAST A FEW AREAS OF -SHSN AND -SHRA FROM THE VCNTY OF THE NW MTS
EAST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS INTO THE NE PLAINS...THOUGH THAT
WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN ROUGHLY 03Z AND 08Z. AREAS OF BR/FZFG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT PARTIALLY CLEAR...
CREATING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NEAR RATON PASS WHERE ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A PROLONGED WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN. EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF COOL DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CONGEALING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE TAKING
A TURN TO THE EAST OVER MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
PWATS AT KABQ RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL JAN/FEB VALUES. SPEAKING
OF PWATS...VALUES DID SPIKE UP TO ABOVE 0.61 INCH FOR 3 UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS IN A ROW...MAXING AT 0.65 INCH AT 00Z AND YESTERDAY AT
12Z...ONLY 0.07 FROM AN ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORD AND IN-LINE WITH
MODEL FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER NEAR RATON PASS THANKS TO UPSLOPE FROM A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE AND TEMPERATURES WON`T BE COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR CONCERN...SO ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT
BE REQUIRED. WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM
GIVEN ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONGOING AND RELATIVE WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY OTHER POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD WORTHY OF
MENTION FOR TONIGHT IS FREEZING FOG...MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU...WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU AND UPPER/MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...ALL CONDITIONAL ON AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. FOG MAY NOT DEVELOP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.

A PROLONGED WARM-UP TO BEGIN TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH MUTED SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND
THEN GO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A SHORT-LIVED COOL DOWN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
TRANSVERSES THE ROCKIES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
PICKUP WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE
SHORT-TERM.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN SONORA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE THE WEST WARMS SLIGHTLY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS
MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SEWD THROUGH ERN
COLORADO. AS A RESULT...VENTILATION RATES WILL INCREASE MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR
VENTILATION RATES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. RATES
TREND SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD THURSDAY.

MODELS STILL TRYING TO SETTLE ON THE STRENGTH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY. GFS IS STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS A STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE FAR NE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. ECMWF
REMAINS DRY AND ONLY BRINGS SLIGHT COOLING TO THE FAR NE PLAINS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510>515-526.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 010014 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
514 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH MOUNTAINS
OBSCURED WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH IT MAY TREND MORE
TOWARD FOG THAN LOW OVERCAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORN. AT
LEAST A FEW AREAS OF -SHSN AND -SHRA FROM THE VCNTY OF THE NW MTS
EAST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS INTO THE NE PLAINS...THOUGH THAT
WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN ROUGHLY 03Z AND 08Z. AREAS OF BR/FZFG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT PARTIALLY CLEAR...
CREATING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NEAR RATON PASS WHERE ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A PROLONGED WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN. EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF COOL DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CONGEALING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE TAKING
A TURN TO THE EAST OVER MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
PWATS AT KABQ RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL JAN/FEB VALUES. SPEAKING
OF PWATS...VALUES DID SPIKE UP TO ABOVE 0.61 INCH FOR 3 UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS IN A ROW...MAXING AT 0.65 INCH AT 00Z AND YESTERDAY AT
12Z...ONLY 0.07 FROM AN ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORD AND IN-LINE WITH
MODEL FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER NEAR RATON PASS THANKS TO UPSLOPE FROM A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE AND TEMPERATURES WON`T BE COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR CONCERN...SO ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT
BE REQUIRED. WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM
GIVEN ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONGOING AND RELATIVE WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY OTHER POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD WORTHY OF
MENTION FOR TONIGHT IS FREEZING FOG...MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU...WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU AND UPPER/MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...ALL CONDITIONAL ON AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. FOG MAY NOT DEVELOP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.

A PROLONGED WARM-UP TO BEGIN TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH MUTED SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND
THEN GO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A SHORT-LIVED COOL DOWN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
TRANSVERSES THE ROCKIES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
PICKUP WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE
SHORT-TERM.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN SONORA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE THE WEST WARMS SLIGHTLY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS
MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SEWD THROUGH ERN
COLORADO. AS A RESULT...VENTILATION RATES WILL INCREASE MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR
VENTILATION RATES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. RATES
TREND SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD THURSDAY.

MODELS STILL TRYING TO SETTLE ON THE STRENGTH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY. GFS IS STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS A STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE FAR NE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. ECMWF
REMAINS DRY AND ONLY BRINGS SLIGHT COOLING TO THE FAR NE PLAINS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510>515-526.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 010014 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
514 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH MOUNTAINS
OBSCURED WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH IT MAY TREND MORE
TOWARD FOG THAN LOW OVERCAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORN. AT
LEAST A FEW AREAS OF -SHSN AND -SHRA FROM THE VCNTY OF THE NW MTS
EAST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS INTO THE NE PLAINS...THOUGH THAT
WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN ROUGHLY 03Z AND 08Z. AREAS OF BR/FZFG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT PARTIALLY CLEAR...
CREATING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NEAR RATON PASS WHERE ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A PROLONGED WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN. EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF COOL DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CONGEALING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE TAKING
A TURN TO THE EAST OVER MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
PWATS AT KABQ RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL JAN/FEB VALUES. SPEAKING
OF PWATS...VALUES DID SPIKE UP TO ABOVE 0.61 INCH FOR 3 UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS IN A ROW...MAXING AT 0.65 INCH AT 00Z AND YESTERDAY AT
12Z...ONLY 0.07 FROM AN ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORD AND IN-LINE WITH
MODEL FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER NEAR RATON PASS THANKS TO UPSLOPE FROM A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE AND TEMPERATURES WON`T BE COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR CONCERN...SO ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT
BE REQUIRED. WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM
GIVEN ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONGOING AND RELATIVE WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY OTHER POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD WORTHY OF
MENTION FOR TONIGHT IS FREEZING FOG...MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU...WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU AND UPPER/MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...ALL CONDITIONAL ON AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. FOG MAY NOT DEVELOP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.

A PROLONGED WARM-UP TO BEGIN TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH MUTED SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND
THEN GO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A SHORT-LIVED COOL DOWN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
TRANSVERSES THE ROCKIES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
PICKUP WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE
SHORT-TERM.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN SONORA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE THE WEST WARMS SLIGHTLY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS
MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SEWD THROUGH ERN
COLORADO. AS A RESULT...VENTILATION RATES WILL INCREASE MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR
VENTILATION RATES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. RATES
TREND SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD THURSDAY.

MODELS STILL TRYING TO SETTLE ON THE STRENGTH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY. GFS IS STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS A STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE FAR NE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. ECMWF
REMAINS DRY AND ONLY BRINGS SLIGHT COOLING TO THE FAR NE PLAINS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510>515-526.

&&

$$








000
FXUS65 KABQ 010014 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
514 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF CYCLE
EXPECT FAIRLY WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH MOUNTAINS
OBSCURED WELL INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...THOUGH IT MAY TREND MORE
TOWARD FOG THAN LOW OVERCAST AFTER MIDNIGHT THROUGH MID MORN. AT
LEAST A FEW AREAS OF -SHSN AND -SHRA FROM THE VCNTY OF THE NW MTS
EAST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS INTO THE NE PLAINS...THOUGH THAT
WILL DIMINISH BETWEEN ROUGHLY 03Z AND 08Z. AREAS OF BR/FZFG WILL
LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT PARTIALLY CLEAR...
CREATING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BETWEEN MID MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

43

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...331 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NEAR RATON PASS WHERE ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A PROLONGED WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN. EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF COOL DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CONGEALING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE TAKING
A TURN TO THE EAST OVER MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
PWATS AT KABQ RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL JAN/FEB VALUES. SPEAKING
OF PWATS...VALUES DID SPIKE UP TO ABOVE 0.61 INCH FOR 3 UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS IN A ROW...MAXING AT 0.65 INCH AT 00Z AND YESTERDAY AT
12Z...ONLY 0.07 FROM AN ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORD AND IN-LINE WITH
MODEL FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER NEAR RATON PASS THANKS TO UPSLOPE FROM A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE AND TEMPERATURES WON`T BE COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR CONCERN...SO ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT
BE REQUIRED. WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM
GIVEN ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONGOING AND RELATIVE WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY OTHER POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD WORTHY OF
MENTION FOR TONIGHT IS FREEZING FOG...MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU...WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU AND UPPER/MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...ALL CONDITIONAL ON AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. FOG MAY NOT DEVELOP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.

A PROLONGED WARM-UP TO BEGIN TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH MUTED SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND
THEN GO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A SHORT-LIVED COOL DOWN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
TRANSVERSES THE ROCKIES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
PICKUP WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE
SHORT-TERM.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN SONORA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE THE WEST WARMS SLIGHTLY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS
MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SEWD THROUGH ERN
COLORADO. AS A RESULT...VENTILATION RATES WILL INCREASE MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR
VENTILATION RATES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. RATES
TREND SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD THURSDAY.

MODELS STILL TRYING TO SETTLE ON THE STRENGTH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY. GFS IS STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS A STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE FAR NE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. ECMWF
REMAINS DRY AND ONLY BRINGS SLIGHT COOLING TO THE FAR NE PLAINS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510>515-526.

&&

$$









000
FXUS65 KABQ 312235 CCA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
331 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NEAR RATON PASS WHERE ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A PROLONGED WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN. EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF COOL DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CONGEALING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE TAKING
A TURN TO THE EAST OVER MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
PWATS AT KABQ RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL JAN/FEB VALUES. SPEAKING
OF PWATS...VALUES DID SPIKE UP TO ABOVE 0.61 INCH FOR 3 UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS IN A ROW...MAXING AT 0.65 INCH AT 00Z AND YESTERDAY AT
12Z...ONLY 0.07 FROM AN ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORD AND IN-LINE WITH
MODEL FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER NEAR RATON PASS THANKS TO UPSLOPE FROM A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE AND TEMPERATURES WON`T BE COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR CONCERN...SO ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT
BE REQUIRED. WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM
GIVEN ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONGOING AND RELATIVE WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY OTHER POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD WORTHY OF
MENTION FOR TONIGHT IS FREEZING FOG...MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU...WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU AND UPPER/MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...ALL CONDITIONAL ON AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. FOG MAY NOT DEVELOP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.

A PROLONGED WARM-UP TO BEGIN TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH MUTED SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND
THEN GO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A SHORT-LIVED COOL DOWN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
TRANSVERSES THE ROCKIES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
PICKUP WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE
SHORT-TERM.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN SONORA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE THE WEST WARMS SLIGHTLY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS
MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SEWD THROUGH ERN
COLORADO. AS A RESULT...VENTILATION RATES WILL INCREASE MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR
VENTILATION RATES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. RATES
TREND SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD THURSDAY.

MODELS STILL TRYING TO SETTLE ON THE STRENGTH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY. GFS IS STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS A STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE FAR NE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. ECMWF
REMAINS DRY AND ONLY BRINGS SLIGHT COOLING TO THE FAR NE PLAINS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AREAS OF -SHRA/-SHSN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NE QUARTER OF NM WITH
LCL SHOWER COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. AREAS OF BR/FZFG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT PARTIALLY CLEAR...CREATING
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  24  47  23  51 /  10   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  19  43  18  46 /  40   5   5   0
CUBA............................  22  40  21  47 /  40   5   5   0
GALLUP..........................  22  49  22  54 /  10   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  20  45  20  51 /  20   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  22  46  22  52 /  20   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  28  47  26  53 /  30   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  34  57  32  59 /  40  10   0   0
CHAMA...........................  14  38  14  42 /  50  10   5   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  24  40  24  45 /  30   5   5   0
PECOS...........................  23  39  23  44 /  30  10   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  15  36  13  42 /  60  10   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  16  32  15  37 /  70  20  10   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  13  33  12  39 /  50  20  10   5
TAOS............................  14  38  12  43 /  50  10   5   5
MORA............................  23  39  22  47 /  40  20  10   5
ESPANOLA........................  25  43  23  48 /  30   5   5   5
SANTA FE........................  25  40  24  45 /  30   5   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  22  43  20  47 /  30   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  28  47  27  52 /  20   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  29  49  28  54 /  20   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  26  49  23  55 /  20   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  29  48  27  53 /  20   5   5   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  27  50  24  55 /  20   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  28  46  26  52 /  20   5   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  33  51  30  56 /  20   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  28  41  26  48 /  20   5   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  27  40  25  49 /  20   5   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  22  39  18  49 /  20   5   5   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  24  38  23  48 /  20   5   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  30  44  27  49 /  20   5   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  34  49  31  53 /  30   5   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  32  46  28  53 /  30  20   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  24  34  22  48 /  60  20  10   5
RATON...........................  24  37  18  51 /  60  20  10   5
SPRINGER........................  25  38  19  52 /  40  20  10   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  22  38  19  49 /  30  10  10   5
CLAYTON.........................  27  36  20  56 /  40  10   5   5
ROY.............................  26  36  19  53 /  40  10   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  29  43  28  59 /  20   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  30  45  26  58 /  20   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  29  46  27  61 /  20   5   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  33  44  26  55 /  20   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  34  46  27  56 /  20   5   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  33  47  30  57 /  20   5   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  36  51  31  60 /  10   5   5   5
PICACHO.........................  35  48  30  59 /  10  10   5   5
ELK.............................  34  47  29  55 /  20  20   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510>515-526.

&&

$$

11







000
FXUS65 KABQ 312235 CCA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
331 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NEAR RATON PASS WHERE ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A PROLONGED WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN. EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF COOL DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CONGEALING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE TAKING
A TURN TO THE EAST OVER MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
PWATS AT KABQ RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL JAN/FEB VALUES. SPEAKING
OF PWATS...VALUES DID SPIKE UP TO ABOVE 0.61 INCH FOR 3 UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS IN A ROW...MAXING AT 0.65 INCH AT 00Z AND YESTERDAY AT
12Z...ONLY 0.07 FROM AN ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORD AND IN-LINE WITH
MODEL FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER NEAR RATON PASS THANKS TO UPSLOPE FROM A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE AND TEMPERATURES WON`T BE COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR CONCERN...SO ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT
BE REQUIRED. WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM
GIVEN ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONGOING AND RELATIVE WARM
TEMPERATURES. THE ONLY OTHER POTENTIAL WEATHER HAZARD WORTHY OF
MENTION FOR TONIGHT IS FREEZING FOG...MOSTLY LIKELY ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST PLATEAU...WEST CENTRAL PLATEAU AND UPPER/MIDDLE RIO
GRANDE VALLEY...ALL CONDITIONAL ON AT LEAST PARTIAL CLEARING
OVERNIGHT. FOG MAY NOT DEVELOP IN THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY UNTIL
AROUND SUNRISE SUNDAY.

A PROLONGED WARM-UP TO BEGIN TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH MUTED SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND
THEN GO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A SHORT-LIVED COOL DOWN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
TRANSVERSES THE ROCKIES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
PICKUP WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE
SHORT-TERM.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN SONORA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE THE WEST WARMS SLIGHTLY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS
MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SEWD THROUGH ERN
COLORADO. AS A RESULT...VENTILATION RATES WILL INCREASE MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR
VENTILATION RATES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. RATES
TREND SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD THURSDAY.

MODELS STILL TRYING TO SETTLE ON THE STRENGTH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY. GFS IS STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS A STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE FAR NE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. ECMWF
REMAINS DRY AND ONLY BRINGS SLIGHT COOLING TO THE FAR NE PLAINS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AREAS OF -SHRA/-SHSN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NE QUARTER OF NM WITH
LCL SHOWER COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. AREAS OF BR/FZFG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT PARTIALLY CLEAR...CREATING
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  24  47  23  51 /  10   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  19  43  18  46 /  40   5   5   0
CUBA............................  22  40  21  47 /  40   5   5   0
GALLUP..........................  22  49  22  54 /  10   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  20  45  20  51 /  20   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  22  46  22  52 /  20   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  28  47  26  53 /  30   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  34  57  32  59 /  40  10   0   0
CHAMA...........................  14  38  14  42 /  50  10   5   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  24  40  24  45 /  30   5   5   0
PECOS...........................  23  39  23  44 /  30  10   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  15  36  13  42 /  60  10   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  16  32  15  37 /  70  20  10   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  13  33  12  39 /  50  20  10   5
TAOS............................  14  38  12  43 /  50  10   5   5
MORA............................  23  39  22  47 /  40  20  10   5
ESPANOLA........................  25  43  23  48 /  30   5   5   5
SANTA FE........................  25  40  24  45 /  30   5   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  22  43  20  47 /  30   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  28  47  27  52 /  20   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  29  49  28  54 /  20   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  26  49  23  55 /  20   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  29  48  27  53 /  20   5   5   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  27  50  24  55 /  20   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  28  46  26  52 /  20   5   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  33  51  30  56 /  20   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  28  41  26  48 /  20   5   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  27  40  25  49 /  20   5   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  22  39  18  49 /  20   5   5   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  24  38  23  48 /  20   5   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  30  44  27  49 /  20   5   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  34  49  31  53 /  30   5   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  32  46  28  53 /  30  20   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  24  34  22  48 /  60  20  10   5
RATON...........................  24  37  18  51 /  60  20  10   5
SPRINGER........................  25  38  19  52 /  40  20  10   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  22  38  19  49 /  30  10  10   5
CLAYTON.........................  27  36  20  56 /  40  10   5   5
ROY.............................  26  36  19  53 /  40  10   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  29  43  28  59 /  20   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  30  45  26  58 /  20   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  29  46  27  61 /  20   5   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  33  44  26  55 /  20   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  34  46  27  56 /  20   5   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  33  47  30  57 /  20   5   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  36  51  31  60 /  10   5   5   5
PICACHO.........................  35  48  30  59 /  10  10   5   5
ELK.............................  34  47  29  55 /  20  20   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510>515-526.

&&

$$

11








000
FXUS65 KABQ 312135
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
235 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NEAR RATON PASS WHERE ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A PROLONGED WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN. EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF COOL DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CONGEALING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE TAKING
A TURN TO THE EAST OVER MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
PWATS AT KABQ RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL JAN/FEB VALUES. SPEAKING
OF PWATS...VALUES DID SPIKE UP TO ABOVE 0.61 INCH FOR 3 UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS IN A ROW...MAXING AT 0.65 INCH AT 00Z AND YESTERDAY AT
12Z...ONLY 0.07 FROM AN ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORD AND IN-LINE WITH
MODEL FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER NEAR RATON PASS THANKS TO UPSLOPE FROM A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE AND TEMPERATURES WON`T BE COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR CONCERN...SO ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT
BE REQUIRED. WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM
GIVEN ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONGOING AND RELATIVE WARM
TEMPERATURES.

A PROLONGED WARM-UP TO BEGIN TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH MUTED SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND
THEN GO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A SHORT-LIVED COOL DOWN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
TRANSVERSES THE ROCKIES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
PICKUP WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE
SHORT-TERM.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN SONORA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE THE WEST WARMS SLIGHTLY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS
MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SEWD THROUGH ERN
COLORADO. AS A RESULT...VENTILATION RATES WILL INCREASE MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR
VENTILATION RATES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. RATES
TREND SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD THURSDAY.

MODELS STILL TRYING TO SETTLE ON THE STRENGTH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY. GFS IS STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS A STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE FAR NE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. ECMWF
REMAINS DRY AND ONLY BRINGS SLIGHT COOLING TO THE FAR NE PLAINS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AREAS OF -SHRA/-SHSN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NE QUARTER OF NM WITH
LCL SHOWER COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. AREAS OF BR/FZFG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT PARTIALLY CLEAR...CREATING
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  24  47  23  51 /  10   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  19  43  18  46 /  40   5   5   0
CUBA............................  22  40  21  47 /  40   5   5   0
GALLUP..........................  22  49  22  54 /  10   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  20  45  20  51 /  20   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  22  46  22  52 /  20   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  28  47  26  53 /  30   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  34  57  32  59 /  40  10   0   0
CHAMA...........................  14  38  14  42 /  50  10   5   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  24  40  24  45 /  30   5   5   0
PECOS...........................  23  39  23  44 /  30  10   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  15  36  13  42 /  60  10   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  16  32  15  37 /  70  20  10   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  13  33  12  39 /  50  20  10   5
TAOS............................  14  38  12  43 /  50  10   5   5
MORA............................  23  39  22  47 /  40  20  10   5
ESPANOLA........................  25  43  23  48 /  30   5   5   5
SANTA FE........................  25  40  24  45 /  30   5   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  22  43  20  47 /  30   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  28  47  27  52 /  20   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  29  49  28  54 /  20   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  26  49  23  55 /  20   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  29  48  27  53 /  20   5   5   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  27  50  24  55 /  20   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  28  46  26  52 /  20   5   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  33  51  30  56 /  20   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  28  41  26  48 /  20   5   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  27  40  25  49 /  20   5   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  22  39  18  49 /  20   5   5   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  24  38  23  48 /  20   5   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  30  44  27  49 /  20   5   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  34  49  31  53 /  30   5   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  32  46  28  53 /  30  20   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  24  34  22  48 /  60  20  10   5
RATON...........................  24  37  18  51 /  60  20  10   5
SPRINGER........................  25  38  19  52 /  40  20  10   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  22  38  19  49 /  30  10  10   5
CLAYTON.........................  27  36  20  56 /  40  10   5   5
ROY.............................  26  36  19  53 /  40  10   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  29  43  28  59 /  20   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  30  45  26  58 /  20   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  29  46  27  61 /  20   5   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  33  44  26  55 /  20   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  34  46  27  56 /  20   5   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  33  47  30  57 /  20   5   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  36  51  31  60 /  10   5   5   5
PICACHO.........................  35  48  30  59 /  10  10   5   5
ELK.............................  34  47  29  55 /  20  20   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510>515-526.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS65 KABQ 312135
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
235 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NEAR RATON PASS WHERE ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A PROLONGED WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN. EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF COOL DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CONGEALING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE TAKING
A TURN TO THE EAST OVER MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
PWATS AT KABQ RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL JAN/FEB VALUES. SPEAKING
OF PWATS...VALUES DID SPIKE UP TO ABOVE 0.61 INCH FOR 3 UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS IN A ROW...MAXING AT 0.65 INCH AT 00Z AND YESTERDAY AT
12Z...ONLY 0.07 FROM AN ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORD AND IN-LINE WITH
MODEL FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER NEAR RATON PASS THANKS TO UPSLOPE FROM A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE AND TEMPERATURES WON`T BE COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR CONCERN...SO ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT
BE REQUIRED. WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM
GIVEN ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONGOING AND RELATIVE WARM
TEMPERATURES.

A PROLONGED WARM-UP TO BEGIN TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH MUTED SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND
THEN GO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A SHORT-LIVED COOL DOWN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
TRANSVERSES THE ROCKIES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
PICKUP WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE
SHORT-TERM.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN SONORA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE THE WEST WARMS SLIGHTLY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS
MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SEWD THROUGH ERN
COLORADO. AS A RESULT...VENTILATION RATES WILL INCREASE MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR
VENTILATION RATES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. RATES
TREND SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD THURSDAY.

MODELS STILL TRYING TO SETTLE ON THE STRENGTH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY. GFS IS STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS A STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE FAR NE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. ECMWF
REMAINS DRY AND ONLY BRINGS SLIGHT COOLING TO THE FAR NE PLAINS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AREAS OF -SHRA/-SHSN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NE QUARTER OF NM WITH
LCL SHOWER COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. AREAS OF BR/FZFG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT PARTIALLY CLEAR...CREATING
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  24  47  23  51 /  10   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  19  43  18  46 /  40   5   5   0
CUBA............................  22  40  21  47 /  40   5   5   0
GALLUP..........................  22  49  22  54 /  10   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  20  45  20  51 /  20   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  22  46  22  52 /  20   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  28  47  26  53 /  30   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  34  57  32  59 /  40  10   0   0
CHAMA...........................  14  38  14  42 /  50  10   5   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  24  40  24  45 /  30   5   5   0
PECOS...........................  23  39  23  44 /  30  10   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  15  36  13  42 /  60  10   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  16  32  15  37 /  70  20  10   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  13  33  12  39 /  50  20  10   5
TAOS............................  14  38  12  43 /  50  10   5   5
MORA............................  23  39  22  47 /  40  20  10   5
ESPANOLA........................  25  43  23  48 /  30   5   5   5
SANTA FE........................  25  40  24  45 /  30   5   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  22  43  20  47 /  30   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  28  47  27  52 /  20   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  29  49  28  54 /  20   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  26  49  23  55 /  20   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  29  48  27  53 /  20   5   5   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  27  50  24  55 /  20   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  28  46  26  52 /  20   5   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  33  51  30  56 /  20   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  28  41  26  48 /  20   5   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  27  40  25  49 /  20   5   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  22  39  18  49 /  20   5   5   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  24  38  23  48 /  20   5   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  30  44  27  49 /  20   5   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  34  49  31  53 /  30   5   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  32  46  28  53 /  30  20   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  24  34  22  48 /  60  20  10   5
RATON...........................  24  37  18  51 /  60  20  10   5
SPRINGER........................  25  38  19  52 /  40  20  10   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  22  38  19  49 /  30  10  10   5
CLAYTON.........................  27  36  20  56 /  40  10   5   5
ROY.............................  26  36  19  53 /  40  10   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  29  43  28  59 /  20   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  30  45  26  58 /  20   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  29  46  27  61 /  20   5   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  33  44  26  55 /  20   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  34  46  27  56 /  20   5   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  33  47  30  57 /  20   5   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  36  51  31  60 /  10   5   5   5
PICACHO.........................  35  48  30  59 /  10  10   5   5
ELK.............................  34  47  29  55 /  20  20   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510>515-526.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS65 KABQ 312135
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
235 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NEAR RATON PASS WHERE ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A PROLONGED WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN. EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF COOL DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CONGEALING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE TAKING
A TURN TO THE EAST OVER MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
PWATS AT KABQ RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL JAN/FEB VALUES. SPEAKING
OF PWATS...VALUES DID SPIKE UP TO ABOVE 0.61 INCH FOR 3 UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS IN A ROW...MAXING AT 0.65 INCH AT 00Z AND YESTERDAY AT
12Z...ONLY 0.07 FROM AN ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORD AND IN-LINE WITH
MODEL FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER NEAR RATON PASS THANKS TO UPSLOPE FROM A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE AND TEMPERATURES WON`T BE COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR CONCERN...SO ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT
BE REQUIRED. WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM
GIVEN ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONGOING AND RELATIVE WARM
TEMPERATURES.

A PROLONGED WARM-UP TO BEGIN TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH MUTED SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND
THEN GO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A SHORT-LIVED COOL DOWN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
TRANSVERSES THE ROCKIES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
PICKUP WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE
SHORT-TERM.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN SONORA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE THE WEST WARMS SLIGHTLY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS
MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SEWD THROUGH ERN
COLORADO. AS A RESULT...VENTILATION RATES WILL INCREASE MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR
VENTILATION RATES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. RATES
TREND SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD THURSDAY.

MODELS STILL TRYING TO SETTLE ON THE STRENGTH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY. GFS IS STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS A STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE FAR NE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. ECMWF
REMAINS DRY AND ONLY BRINGS SLIGHT COOLING TO THE FAR NE PLAINS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AREAS OF -SHRA/-SHSN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NE QUARTER OF NM WITH
LCL SHOWER COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. AREAS OF BR/FZFG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT PARTIALLY CLEAR...CREATING
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  24  47  23  51 /  10   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  19  43  18  46 /  40   5   5   0
CUBA............................  22  40  21  47 /  40   5   5   0
GALLUP..........................  22  49  22  54 /  10   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  20  45  20  51 /  20   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  22  46  22  52 /  20   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  28  47  26  53 /  30   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  34  57  32  59 /  40  10   0   0
CHAMA...........................  14  38  14  42 /  50  10   5   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  24  40  24  45 /  30   5   5   0
PECOS...........................  23  39  23  44 /  30  10   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  15  36  13  42 /  60  10   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  16  32  15  37 /  70  20  10   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  13  33  12  39 /  50  20  10   5
TAOS............................  14  38  12  43 /  50  10   5   5
MORA............................  23  39  22  47 /  40  20  10   5
ESPANOLA........................  25  43  23  48 /  30   5   5   5
SANTA FE........................  25  40  24  45 /  30   5   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  22  43  20  47 /  30   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  28  47  27  52 /  20   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  29  49  28  54 /  20   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  26  49  23  55 /  20   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  29  48  27  53 /  20   5   5   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  27  50  24  55 /  20   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  28  46  26  52 /  20   5   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  33  51  30  56 /  20   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  28  41  26  48 /  20   5   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  27  40  25  49 /  20   5   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  22  39  18  49 /  20   5   5   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  24  38  23  48 /  20   5   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  30  44  27  49 /  20   5   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  34  49  31  53 /  30   5   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  32  46  28  53 /  30  20   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  24  34  22  48 /  60  20  10   5
RATON...........................  24  37  18  51 /  60  20  10   5
SPRINGER........................  25  38  19  52 /  40  20  10   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  22  38  19  49 /  30  10  10   5
CLAYTON.........................  27  36  20  56 /  40  10   5   5
ROY.............................  26  36  19  53 /  40  10   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  29  43  28  59 /  20   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  30  45  26  58 /  20   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  29  46  27  61 /  20   5   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  33  44  26  55 /  20   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  34  46  27  56 /  20   5   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  33  47  30  57 /  20   5   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  36  51  31  60 /  10   5   5   5
PICACHO.........................  35  48  30  59 /  10  10   5   5
ELK.............................  34  47  29  55 /  20  20   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510>515-526.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS65 KABQ 312135
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
235 PM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
RAIN AND SNOW CHANCES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT FOR ACROSS
THE SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS AND NEAR RATON PASS WHERE ANOTHER
INCH OR TWO OF ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE. BY SUNDAY...THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM RESPONSIBLE FOR THE WEATHER OVER THE PAST COUPLE
OF DAYS WILL BE WELL SOUTH OF THE AREA AND A PROLONGED WARMING
TREND WILL BEGIN. EXCEPT FOR A BRIEF COOL DOWN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PLAINS LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY
BE ABOVE NORMAL THIS UPCOMING WEEK AS DRY NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
PREVAILS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CONGEALING OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA
PER THE LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
SLOW SOUTHWARD MOVEMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS BEFORE TAKING
A TURN TO THE EAST OVER MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL FOLLOW
BEHIND IT ACROSS THE DESERT SOUTHWEST AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES...WITH
PWATS AT KABQ RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL JAN/FEB VALUES. SPEAKING
OF PWATS...VALUES DID SPIKE UP TO ABOVE 0.61 INCH FOR 3 UPPER AIR
SOUNDINGS IN A ROW...MAXING AT 0.65 INCH AT 00Z AND YESTERDAY AT
12Z...ONLY 0.07 FROM AN ALL-TIME JANUARY RECORD AND IN-LINE WITH
MODEL FORECASTS. PRECIPITATION WILL DWINDLE OVERNIGHT ACROSS MOST
OF THE AREA...BUT MAY PERSIST ACROSS THE SANGRE DE CRISTOS AND
ALONG THE COLORADO BORDER NEAR RATON PASS THANKS TO UPSLOPE FROM A
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION SHOULD BE IN THE
1-2 INCH RANGE AND TEMPERATURES WON`T BE COLD ENOUGH TO CAUSE
MAJOR CONCERN...SO ADDITIONAL WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS WILL NOT
BE REQUIRED. WILL ALLOW THE REMAINING WARNINGS TO EXPIRE AT 5 PM
GIVEN ONLY VERY LIGHT PRECIPITATION ONGOING AND RELATIVE WARM
TEMPERATURES.

A PROLONGED WARM-UP TO BEGIN TOMORROW...ALTHOUGH MUTED SOMEWHAT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS THANKS TO THE BACKDOOR FRONT.
TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE BACK TO NEAR NORMAL BY MONDAY AND
THEN GO ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK WITH DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WITH ONE EXCEPTION. ANOTHER BACKDOOR FRONT
WILL PROVIDE A SHORT-LIVED COOL DOWN TO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY...BUT WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
RETURN BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT SATURDAY AS A LOW AMPLITUDE RIDGE
TRANSVERSES THE ROCKIES AND BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY CONDITIONS
PICKUP WITH A DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROUGH.

11

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
VENTILATION RATES WILL BE THE PRIMARY FIRE WEATHER CONCERN IN THE
SHORT-TERM.

UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW OVER NORTHERN SONORA WILL CONTINUE TO DROP
SOUTHWARD TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS AND/OR FOG WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP AS MID CLOUDS GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT.

A WEAK BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
TONIGHT...MOVING SOUTH THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PLAINS
SUNDAY MORNING. THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM WARMING MUCH
EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN WHILE THE WEST WARMS SLIGHTLY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL TRANSITION OVER THE REGION SUNDAY. WEST TO
NORTHWEST BREEZES WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE RIDGETOPS OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN. ALL AREAS EXPECTED TO WARM TO ABOVE AVERAGE LEVELS
MONDAY. WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS WILL INCREASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY
AFTERNOON AS A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDES SEWD THROUGH ERN
COLORADO. AS A RESULT...VENTILATION RATES WILL INCREASE MONDAY. AT
THIS TIME...WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO BE THE BEST DAY OF THE WEEK FOR
VENTILATION RATES THROUGHOUT CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO. RATES
TREND SIGNIFICANTLY DOWNWARD THURSDAY.

MODELS STILL TRYING TO SETTLE ON THE STRENGTH OF A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
DIVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH COLORADO WEDNESDAY. GFS IS STRONGER
THAN THE ECMWF AND BRINGS A STRONGER BACKDOOR FRONT ALONG WITH SOME
LIGHT RAIN/SNOW TO THE FAR NE PLAINS WEDNESDAY EVENING. ECMWF
REMAINS DRY AND ONLY BRINGS SLIGHT COOLING TO THE FAR NE PLAINS.

MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL TRANSLATE
EAST OVER NEW MEXICO THURSDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEKEND. DRY WEATHER
WITH ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES WILL RESULT.

33

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AREAS OF -SHRA/-SHSN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NE QUARTER OF NM WITH
LCL SHOWER COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. AREAS OF BR/FZFG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT PARTIALLY CLEAR...CREATING
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

33

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  24  47  23  51 /  10   0   0   0
DULCE...........................  19  43  18  46 /  40   5   5   0
CUBA............................  22  40  21  47 /  40   5   5   0
GALLUP..........................  22  49  22  54 /  10   0   0   0
EL MORRO........................  20  45  20  51 /  20   0   0   0
GRANTS..........................  22  46  22  52 /  20   0   0   0
QUEMADO.........................  28  47  26  53 /  30   0   0   0
GLENWOOD........................  34  57  32  59 /  40  10   0   0
CHAMA...........................  14  38  14  42 /  50  10   5   0
LOS ALAMOS......................  24  40  24  45 /  30   5   5   0
PECOS...........................  23  39  23  44 /  30  10   5   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  15  36  13  42 /  60  10   5   5
RED RIVER.......................  16  32  15  37 /  70  20  10   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  13  33  12  39 /  50  20  10   5
TAOS............................  14  38  12  43 /  50  10   5   5
MORA............................  23  39  22  47 /  40  20  10   5
ESPANOLA........................  25  43  23  48 /  30   5   5   5
SANTA FE........................  25  40  24  45 /  30   5   5   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  22  43  20  47 /  30   5   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  28  47  27  52 /  20   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  29  49  28  54 /  20   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  26  49  23  55 /  20   5   5   0
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  29  48  27  53 /  20   5   5   0
LOS LUNAS.......................  27  50  24  55 /  20   5   0   0
RIO RANCHO......................  28  46  26  52 /  20   5   5   0
SOCORRO.........................  33  51  30  56 /  20   5   0   0
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  28  41  26  48 /  20   5   5   5
TIJERAS.........................  27  40  25  49 /  20   5   5   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  22  39  18  49 /  20   5   5   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  24  38  23  48 /  20   5   5   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  30  44  27  49 /  20   5   0   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  34  49  31  53 /  30   5   5   5
RUIDOSO.........................  32  46  28  53 /  30  20   5   5
CAPULIN.........................  24  34  22  48 /  60  20  10   5
RATON...........................  24  37  18  51 /  60  20  10   5
SPRINGER........................  25  38  19  52 /  40  20  10   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  22  38  19  49 /  30  10  10   5
CLAYTON.........................  27  36  20  56 /  40  10   5   5
ROY.............................  26  36  19  53 /  40  10   5   5
CONCHAS.........................  29  43  28  59 /  20   5   5   5
SANTA ROSA......................  30  45  26  58 /  20   5   5   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  29  46  27  61 /  20   5   5   5
CLOVIS..........................  33  44  26  55 /  20   5   5   5
PORTALES........................  34  46  27  56 /  20   5   5   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  33  47  30  57 /  20   5   5   5
ROSWELL.........................  36  51  31  60 /  10   5   5   5
PICACHO.........................  35  48  30  59 /  10  10   5   5
ELK.............................  34  47  29  55 /  20  20   5   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510>515-526.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS65 KABQ 311828 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED 1ST PERIOD FORECAST TO TWEAK POPS DOWN A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND DROPPED A MAJORITY OF OUR
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DUE TO RISING SNOW LEVELS AND LITTLE
ADDITIONAL QPF. WILL KEEP THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
GOING FOR NOW.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1053 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AREAS OF -SHRA/-SHSN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NE QUARTER OF NM WITH
LCL SHOWER COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. AREAS OF BR/FZFG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT PARTIALLY CLEAR...CREATING
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. SNOW
WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOCALES NEAREST TO MOUNTAIN
RANGES. ANY SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD TURN TO
RAIN LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...THOUGH FOG
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR MANY LOCALES. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN TODAY. THE WARMING TREND WILL
THEN BEGIN IN EARNEST ON GROUNDHOG DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. THE ONLY DETOUR FROM THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE A
MODEST BACK DOOR FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE WET DAY BEFORE THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT DRIES OUT. SNOW
CONTINUES AT KFMN SO WILL EXTEND THE WINTER WX ADVY OUT THRU 19Z.
SNOW CONTINUES AROUND KGUP AND KGNT...BUT WILL NOT REISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS THERE AS IMPACTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE MINIMAL...AND ALSO
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTN.

OUR FRIENDLY UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT MUCH NEEDED PRECIP TO THE
STATE WILL DIVE OR REORGANIZE ITSELF SOUTHWARD TODAY...BUT NOT
BEFORE SENDING ONE LAST PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN NM. THE GFS
AND EC ARE THE MOST BULLISH AT CONTINUING PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT THEN MOST MODELS TEND TO AGREE PRECIP WILL START TO
BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN UPPER
LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER BAJA WHILE THE VORT MAX OVER NORTHERN NM
WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIVES SOUTH.
THIS TROUGH WILL GRAZE NE NM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BACKS INTO EASTERN NM. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST ON
SUNDAY PROBABLY WONT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM TODAY HOWEVER.
SPEAKING OF TODAYS TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE OWING TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...WET GROUND AND
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. HAVE ALSO RAISED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT FOR AT
LEAST THE FORMER TWO REASONS. GUIDANCE SEEMS ODDLY COLD TONIGHT
DESPITE DEWPOINTS NOT LIKELY TO DRY OUT SOME UNTIL SOMETIME SUNDAY
AT THE EARLIEST. FOG/FZFG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TONIGHT.  GIVEN HOW
WET IT HAS BEEN...IT COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE BUT MODELS
SUGGEST CLOUD COVER MAY BREAK UP LATE TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...SO HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THERE. HOWEVER BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...HAVE ALSO ADDED FOG/FZFG TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. FOG MAY RETURN FOR SOME EASTERN AREAS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS IS SUGGESTING A WEAK TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN CO AND
NORTHERN NM ON WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  THE CANADIAN GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS...BUT
THE EC SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAVING A GREATER HOLD ON THE
STATE. NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT WONT BE TERRIBLY COLD. THEREAFTER...THE
WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS RIDGING SLIDES OVER NM.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF POOR VENTILATION ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THE STORM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL DROP SOUTH WHILE A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH JET STREAM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING A DRYING TREND TO THE STATE. A MOSTLY
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SETTLE OVER NM NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE EXCEPT FOR A SETBACK IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS NV WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY. RAIN WILL FALL IN THE
VALLEYS AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH SNOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHER THAN FRIDAY IN MOST PLACES...THEY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH IN THE 70S AND
80S. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE MOSTLY POOR.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ALSO ENTER EASTERN NM TONIGHT. MEANWHILE
THE STORM TO OUR WEST WILL DIVE SOUTH AND LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE
STATE. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER MOST AREAS BUT BE LIGHT.
DENSE FOG WILL BE A CONCERN AT SOME LOCATIONS. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT WOULD BE NORTHWEST NM AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING PAST NM SUNDAY. LINGERING RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EAST. DESPITE THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HIGHS WILL CLIMB A LITTLE ABOVE TODAYS VALUES
IN THE EAST...AND SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER IN THE WEST. VENT RATES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY POOR EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR TO GOOD VALUES OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE WITH BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS...BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE. THE
STRONGEST SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRY NEXT WEEK AND EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NICELY EARLY IN THE WEEK...RECOVERING
TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY IN THE
EAST...WHILE WESTERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. VENT RATES
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY FAIR TO
GOOD RATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND VERY GOOD RATES WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTH. RATES WILL DROP BACK TO FAIR AND POOR THURSDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH MOSTLY 30S AND 40S NEXT WEEK. NIGHTTIME
RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510>515-526.

&&

$$

11






000
FXUS65 KABQ 311828 AAC
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1128 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.UPDATE...
UPDATED 1ST PERIOD FORECAST TO TWEAK POPS DOWN A BIT THIS
AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AND DROPPED A MAJORITY OF OUR
WINTER WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS DUE TO RISING SNOW LEVELS AND LITTLE
ADDITIONAL QPF. WILL KEEP THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
GOING FOR NOW.

11

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...1053 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AREAS OF -SHRA/-SHSN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NE QUARTER OF NM WITH
LCL SHOWER COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. AREAS OF BR/FZFG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT PARTIALLY CLEAR...CREATING
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. SNOW
WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOCALES NEAREST TO MOUNTAIN
RANGES. ANY SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD TURN TO
RAIN LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...THOUGH FOG
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR MANY LOCALES. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN TODAY. THE WARMING TREND WILL
THEN BEGIN IN EARNEST ON GROUNDHOG DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. THE ONLY DETOUR FROM THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE A
MODEST BACK DOOR FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE WET DAY BEFORE THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT DRIES OUT. SNOW
CONTINUES AT KFMN SO WILL EXTEND THE WINTER WX ADVY OUT THRU 19Z.
SNOW CONTINUES AROUND KGUP AND KGNT...BUT WILL NOT REISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS THERE AS IMPACTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE MINIMAL...AND ALSO
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTN.

OUR FRIENDLY UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT MUCH NEEDED PRECIP TO THE
STATE WILL DIVE OR REORGANIZE ITSELF SOUTHWARD TODAY...BUT NOT
BEFORE SENDING ONE LAST PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN NM. THE GFS
AND EC ARE THE MOST BULLISH AT CONTINUING PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT THEN MOST MODELS TEND TO AGREE PRECIP WILL START TO
BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN UPPER
LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER BAJA WHILE THE VORT MAX OVER NORTHERN NM
WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIVES SOUTH.
THIS TROUGH WILL GRAZE NE NM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BACKS INTO EASTERN NM. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST ON
SUNDAY PROBABLY WONT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM TODAY HOWEVER.
SPEAKING OF TODAYS TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE OWING TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...WET GROUND AND
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. HAVE ALSO RAISED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT FOR AT
LEAST THE FORMER TWO REASONS. GUIDANCE SEEMS ODDLY COLD TONIGHT
DESPITE DEWPOINTS NOT LIKELY TO DRY OUT SOME UNTIL SOMETIME SUNDAY
AT THE EARLIEST. FOG/FZFG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TONIGHT.  GIVEN HOW
WET IT HAS BEEN...IT COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE BUT MODELS
SUGGEST CLOUD COVER MAY BREAK UP LATE TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...SO HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THERE. HOWEVER BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...HAVE ALSO ADDED FOG/FZFG TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. FOG MAY RETURN FOR SOME EASTERN AREAS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS IS SUGGESTING A WEAK TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN CO AND
NORTHERN NM ON WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  THE CANADIAN GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS...BUT
THE EC SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAVING A GREATER HOLD ON THE
STATE. NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT WONT BE TERRIBLY COLD. THEREAFTER...THE
WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS RIDGING SLIDES OVER NM.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF POOR VENTILATION ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THE STORM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL DROP SOUTH WHILE A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH JET STREAM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING A DRYING TREND TO THE STATE. A MOSTLY
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SETTLE OVER NM NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE EXCEPT FOR A SETBACK IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS NV WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY. RAIN WILL FALL IN THE
VALLEYS AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH SNOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHER THAN FRIDAY IN MOST PLACES...THEY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH IN THE 70S AND
80S. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE MOSTLY POOR.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ALSO ENTER EASTERN NM TONIGHT. MEANWHILE
THE STORM TO OUR WEST WILL DIVE SOUTH AND LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE
STATE. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER MOST AREAS BUT BE LIGHT.
DENSE FOG WILL BE A CONCERN AT SOME LOCATIONS. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT WOULD BE NORTHWEST NM AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING PAST NM SUNDAY. LINGERING RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EAST. DESPITE THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HIGHS WILL CLIMB A LITTLE ABOVE TODAYS VALUES
IN THE EAST...AND SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER IN THE WEST. VENT RATES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY POOR EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR TO GOOD VALUES OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE WITH BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS...BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE. THE
STRONGEST SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRY NEXT WEEK AND EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NICELY EARLY IN THE WEEK...RECOVERING
TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY IN THE
EAST...WHILE WESTERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. VENT RATES
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY FAIR TO
GOOD RATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND VERY GOOD RATES WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTH. RATES WILL DROP BACK TO FAIR AND POOR THURSDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH MOSTLY 30S AND 40S NEXT WEEK. NIGHTTIME
RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ510>515-526.

&&

$$

11





000
FXUS65 KABQ 311753 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1053 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AREAS OF -SHRA/-SHSN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NE QUARTER OF NM WITH
LCL SHOWER COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. AREAS OF BR/FZFG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT PARTIALLY CLEAR...CREATING
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. SNOW
WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOCALES NEAREST TO MOUNTAIN
RANGES. ANY SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD TURN TO
RAIN LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...THOUGH FOG
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR MANY LOCALES. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN TODAY. THE WARMING TREND WILL
THEN BEGIN IN EARNEST ON GROUNDHOG DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. THE ONLY DETOUR FROM THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE A
MODEST BACK DOOR FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE WET DAY BEFORE THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT DRIES OUT. SNOW
CONTINUES AT KFMN SO WILL EXTEND THE WINTER WX ADVY OUT THRU 19Z.
SNOW CONTINUES AROUND KGUP AND KGNT...BUT WILL NOT REISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS THERE AS IMPACTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE MINIMAL...AND ALSO
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTN.

OUR FRIENDLY UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT MUCH NEEDED PRECIP TO THE
STATE WILL DIVE OR REORGANIZE ITSELF SOUTHWARD TODAY...BUT NOT
BEFORE SENDING ONE LAST PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN NM. THE GFS
AND EC ARE THE MOST BULLISH AT CONTINUING PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT THEN MOST MODELS TEND TO AGREE PRECIP WILL START TO
BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN UPPER
LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER BAJA WHILE THE VORT MAX OVER NORTHERN NM
WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIVES SOUTH.
THIS TROUGH WILL GRAZE NE NM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BACKS INTO EASTERN NM. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST ON
SUNDAY PROBABLY WONT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM TODAY HOWEVER.
SPEAKING OF TODAYS TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE OWING TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...WET GROUND AND
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. HAVE ALSO RAISED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT FOR AT
LEAST THE FORMER TWO REASONS. GUIDANCE SEEMS ODDLY COLD TONIGHT
DESPITE DEWPOINTS NOT LIKELY TO DRY OUT SOME UNTIL SOMETIME SUNDAY
AT THE EARLIEST. FOG/FZFG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TONIGHT.  GIVEN HOW
WET IT HAS BEEN...IT COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE BUT MODELS
SUGGEST CLOUD COVER MAY BREAK UP LATE TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...SO HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THERE. HOWEVER BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...HAVE ALSO ADDED FOG/FZFG TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. FOG MAY RETURN FOR SOME EASTERN AREAS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS IS SUGGESTING A WEAK TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN CO AND
NORTHERN NM ON WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  THE CANADIAN GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS...BUT
THE EC SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAVING A GREATER HOLD ON THE
STATE. NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT WONT BE TERRIBLY COLD. THEREAFTER...THE
WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS RIDGING SLIDES OVER NM.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF POOR VENTILATION ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THE STORM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL DROP SOUTH WHILE A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH JET STREAM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING A DRYING TREND TO THE STATE. A MOSTLY
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SETTLE OVER NM NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE EXCEPT FOR A SETBACK IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS NV WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY. RAIN WILL FALL IN THE
VALLEYS AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH SNOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHER THAN FRIDAY IN MOST PLACES...THEY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH IN THE 70S AND
80S. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE MOSTLY POOR.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ALSO ENTER EASTERN NM TONIGHT. MEANWHILE
THE STORM TO OUR WEST WILL DIVE SOUTH AND LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE
STATE. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER MOST AREAS BUT BE LIGHT.
DENSE FOG WILL BE A CONCERN AT SOME LOCATIONS. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT WOULD BE NORTHWEST NM AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING PAST NM SUNDAY. LINGERING RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EAST. DESPITE THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HIGHS WILL CLIMB A LITTLE ABOVE TODAYS VALUES
IN THE EAST...AND SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER IN THE WEST. VENT RATES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY POOR EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR TO GOOD VALUES OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE WITH BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS...BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE. THE
STRONGEST SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRY NEXT WEEK AND EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NICELY EARLY IN THE WEEK...RECOVERING
TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY IN THE
EAST...WHILE WESTERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. VENT RATES
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY FAIR TO
GOOD RATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND VERY GOOD RATES WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTH. RATES WILL DROP BACK TO FAIR AND POOR THURSDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH MOSTLY 30S AND 40S NEXT WEEK. NIGHTTIME
RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ503-518-524-527-528-531-533.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-504-506-508-510>517-521>523-526-529.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501.

&&

$$

11










000
FXUS65 KABQ 311753 AAA
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1053 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF CYCLE
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBYS WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AREAS OF -SHRA/-SHSN
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON OVER NE QUARTER OF NM WITH
LCL SHOWER COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. AREAS OF BR/FZFG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP
AFTER MIDNIGHT IN LOCATIONS THAT PARTIALLY CLEAR...CREATING
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS. LOW CLOUDS/FOG EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON SUNDAY.

33

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. SNOW
WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOCALES NEAREST TO MOUNTAIN
RANGES. ANY SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD TURN TO
RAIN LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...THOUGH FOG
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR MANY LOCALES. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN TODAY. THE WARMING TREND WILL
THEN BEGIN IN EARNEST ON GROUNDHOG DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. THE ONLY DETOUR FROM THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE A
MODEST BACK DOOR FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE WET DAY BEFORE THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT DRIES OUT. SNOW
CONTINUES AT KFMN SO WILL EXTEND THE WINTER WX ADVY OUT THRU 19Z.
SNOW CONTINUES AROUND KGUP AND KGNT...BUT WILL NOT REISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS THERE AS IMPACTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE MINIMAL...AND ALSO
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTN.

OUR FRIENDLY UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT MUCH NEEDED PRECIP TO THE
STATE WILL DIVE OR REORGANIZE ITSELF SOUTHWARD TODAY...BUT NOT
BEFORE SENDING ONE LAST PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN NM. THE GFS
AND EC ARE THE MOST BULLISH AT CONTINUING PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT THEN MOST MODELS TEND TO AGREE PRECIP WILL START TO
BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN UPPER
LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER BAJA WHILE THE VORT MAX OVER NORTHERN NM
WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIVES SOUTH.
THIS TROUGH WILL GRAZE NE NM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BACKS INTO EASTERN NM. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST ON
SUNDAY PROBABLY WONT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM TODAY HOWEVER.
SPEAKING OF TODAYS TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE OWING TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...WET GROUND AND
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. HAVE ALSO RAISED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT FOR AT
LEAST THE FORMER TWO REASONS. GUIDANCE SEEMS ODDLY COLD TONIGHT
DESPITE DEWPOINTS NOT LIKELY TO DRY OUT SOME UNTIL SOMETIME SUNDAY
AT THE EARLIEST. FOG/FZFG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TONIGHT.  GIVEN HOW
WET IT HAS BEEN...IT COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE BUT MODELS
SUGGEST CLOUD COVER MAY BREAK UP LATE TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...SO HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THERE. HOWEVER BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...HAVE ALSO ADDED FOG/FZFG TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. FOG MAY RETURN FOR SOME EASTERN AREAS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS IS SUGGESTING A WEAK TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN CO AND
NORTHERN NM ON WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  THE CANADIAN GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS...BUT
THE EC SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAVING A GREATER HOLD ON THE
STATE. NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT WONT BE TERRIBLY COLD. THEREAFTER...THE
WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS RIDGING SLIDES OVER NM.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF POOR VENTILATION ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THE STORM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL DROP SOUTH WHILE A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH JET STREAM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING A DRYING TREND TO THE STATE. A MOSTLY
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SETTLE OVER NM NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE EXCEPT FOR A SETBACK IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS NV WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY. RAIN WILL FALL IN THE
VALLEYS AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH SNOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHER THAN FRIDAY IN MOST PLACES...THEY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH IN THE 70S AND
80S. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE MOSTLY POOR.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ALSO ENTER EASTERN NM TONIGHT. MEANWHILE
THE STORM TO OUR WEST WILL DIVE SOUTH AND LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE
STATE. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER MOST AREAS BUT BE LIGHT.
DENSE FOG WILL BE A CONCERN AT SOME LOCATIONS. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT WOULD BE NORTHWEST NM AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING PAST NM SUNDAY. LINGERING RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EAST. DESPITE THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HIGHS WILL CLIMB A LITTLE ABOVE TODAYS VALUES
IN THE EAST...AND SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER IN THE WEST. VENT RATES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY POOR EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR TO GOOD VALUES OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE WITH BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS...BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE. THE
STRONGEST SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRY NEXT WEEK AND EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NICELY EARLY IN THE WEEK...RECOVERING
TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY IN THE
EAST...WHILE WESTERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. VENT RATES
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY FAIR TO
GOOD RATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND VERY GOOD RATES WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTH. RATES WILL DROP BACK TO FAIR AND POOR THURSDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH MOSTLY 30S AND 40S NEXT WEEK. NIGHTTIME
RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ503-518-524-527-528-531-533.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-504-506-508-510>517-521>523-526-529.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501.

&&

$$

11









000
FXUS65 KABQ 311153
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
453 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
OCCASIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW AND PATCHES OF FOG TO
PERSIST MOST AREAS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURED ALONG WITH LOCAL LIFR IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. SPATIAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL DECREASE
GRADUALLY AFTER 18Z THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN CONCERN AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT WILL BE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG POTENTIALLY
PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES. HARD TO PINPOINT WHICH
TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE THE FOG BUT WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SOME
CLEARING OVER NW NM TONIGHT...FMN...GUP...SAF AND ABQ APPEAR TO
HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. SNOW
WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOCALES NEAREST TO MOUNTAIN
RANGES. ANY SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD TURN TO
RAIN LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...THOUGH FOG
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR MANY LOCALES. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN TODAY. THE WARMING TREND WILL
THEN BEGIN IN EARNEST ON GROUNDHOG DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. THE ONLY DETOUR FROM THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE A
MODEST BACK DOOR FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE WET DAY BEFORE THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT DRIES OUT. SNOW
CONTINUES AT KFMN SO WILL EXTEND THE WINTER WX ADVY OUT THRU 19Z.
SNOW CONTINUES AROUND KGUP AND KGNT...BUT WILL NOT REISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS THERE AS IMPACTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE MINIMAL...AND ALSO
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTN.

OUR FRIENDLY UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT MUCH NEEDED PRECIP TO THE
STATE WILL DIVE OR REORGANIZE ITSELF SOUTHWARD TODAY...BUT NOT
BEFORE SENDING ONE LAST PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN NM. THE GFS
AND EC ARE THE MOST BULLISH AT CONTINUING PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT THEN MOST MODELS TEND TO AGREE PRECIP WILL START TO
BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN UPPER
LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER BAJA WHILE THE VORT MAX OVER NORTHERN NM
WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIVES SOUTH.
THIS TROUGH WILL GRAZE NE NM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BACKS INTO EASTERN NM. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST ON
SUNDAY PROBABLY WONT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM TODAY HOWEVER.
SPEAKING OF TODAYS TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE OWING TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...WET GROUND AND
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. HAVE ALSO RAISED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT FOR AT
LEAST THE FORMER TWO REASONS. GUIDANCE SEEMS ODDLY COLD TONIGHT
DESPITE DEWPOINTS NOT LIKELY TO DRY OUT SOME UNTIL SOMETIME SUNDAY
AT THE EARLIEST. FOG/FZFG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TONIGHT.  GIVEN HOW
WET IT HAS BEEN...IT COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE BUT MODELS
SUGGEST CLOUD COVER MAY BREAK UP LATE TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...SO HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THERE. HOWEVER BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...HAVE ALSO ADDED FOG/FZFG TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. FOG MAY RETURN FOR SOME EASTERN AREAS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS IS SUGGESTING A WEAK TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN CO AND
NORTHERN NM ON WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  THE CANADIAN GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS...BUT
THE EC SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAVING A GREATER HOLD ON THE
STATE. NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT WONT BE TERRIBLY COLD. THEREAFTER...THE
WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS RIDGING SLIDES OVER NM.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF POOR VENTILATION ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THE STORM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL DROP SOUTH WHILE A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH JET STREAM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING A DRYING TREND TO THE STATE. A MOSTLY
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SETTLE OVER NM NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE EXCEPT FOR A SETBACK IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS NV WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY. RAIN WILL FALL IN THE
VALLEYS AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH SNOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHER THAN FRIDAY IN MOST PLACES...THEY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH IN THE 70S AND
80S. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE MOSTLY POOR.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ALSO ENTER EASTERN NM TONIGHT. MEANWHILE
THE STORM TO OUR WEST WILL DIVE SOUTH AND LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE
STATE. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER MOST AREAS BUT BE LIGHT.
DENSE FOG WILL BE A CONCERN AT SOME LOCATIONS. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT WOULD BE NORTHWEST NM AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING PAST NM SUNDAY. LINGERING RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EAST. DESPITE THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HIGHS WILL CLIMB A LITTLE ABOVE TODAYS VALUES
IN THE EAST...AND SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER IN THE WEST. VENT RATES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY POOR EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR TO GOOD VALUES OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE WITH BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS...BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE. THE
STRONGEST SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRY NEXT WEEK AND EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NICELY EARLY IN THE WEEK...RECOVERING
TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY IN THE
EAST...WHILE WESTERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. VENT RATES
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY FAIR TO
GOOD RATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND VERY GOOD RATES WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTH. RATES WILL DROP BACK TO FAIR AND POOR THURSDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH MOSTLY 30S AND 40S NEXT WEEK. NIGHTTIME
RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ503-518-524-527-528-531-533.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-504-506-508-510>517-521>523-526-529.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501.

&&

$$

40





000
FXUS65 KABQ 311153
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
453 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF CYCLE
OCCASIONAL LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW AND PATCHES OF FOG TO
PERSIST MOST AREAS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR TO IFR
CIGS AND VSBYS AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURED ALONG WITH LOCAL LIFR IN THE
HEAVIEST SHOWERS. SPATIAL COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL DECREASE
GRADUALLY AFTER 18Z THROUGH TONIGHT. MAIN CONCERN AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT WILL BE AREAS OF LOW CLOUDS AND FREEZING FOG POTENTIALLY
PRODUCING IFR CONDITIONS AT TAF SITES. HARD TO PINPOINT WHICH
TERMINALS WILL EXPERIENCE THE FOG BUT WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SOME
CLEARING OVER NW NM TONIGHT...FMN...GUP...SAF AND ABQ APPEAR TO
HAVE THE BEST SHOT AT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...319 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. SNOW
WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOCALES NEAREST TO MOUNTAIN
RANGES. ANY SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD TURN TO
RAIN LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...THOUGH FOG
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR MANY LOCALES. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN TODAY. THE WARMING TREND WILL
THEN BEGIN IN EARNEST ON GROUNDHOG DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. THE ONLY DETOUR FROM THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE A
MODEST BACK DOOR FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE WET DAY BEFORE THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT DRIES OUT. SNOW
CONTINUES AT KFMN SO WILL EXTEND THE WINTER WX ADVY OUT THRU 19Z.
SNOW CONTINUES AROUND KGUP AND KGNT...BUT WILL NOT REISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS THERE AS IMPACTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE MINIMAL...AND ALSO
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTN.

OUR FRIENDLY UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT MUCH NEEDED PRECIP TO THE
STATE WILL DIVE OR REORGANIZE ITSELF SOUTHWARD TODAY...BUT NOT
BEFORE SENDING ONE LAST PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN NM. THE GFS
AND EC ARE THE MOST BULLISH AT CONTINUING PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT THEN MOST MODELS TEND TO AGREE PRECIP WILL START TO
BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN UPPER
LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER BAJA WHILE THE VORT MAX OVER NORTHERN NM
WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIVES SOUTH.
THIS TROUGH WILL GRAZE NE NM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BACKS INTO EASTERN NM. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST ON
SUNDAY PROBABLY WONT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM TODAY HOWEVER.
SPEAKING OF TODAYS TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE OWING TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...WET GROUND AND
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. HAVE ALSO RAISED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT FOR AT
LEAST THE FORMER TWO REASONS. GUIDANCE SEEMS ODDLY COLD TONIGHT
DESPITE DEWPOINTS NOT LIKELY TO DRY OUT SOME UNTIL SOMETIME SUNDAY
AT THE EARLIEST. FOG/FZFG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TONIGHT.  GIVEN HOW
WET IT HAS BEEN...IT COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE BUT MODELS
SUGGEST CLOUD COVER MAY BREAK UP LATE TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...SO HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THERE. HOWEVER BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...HAVE ALSO ADDED FOG/FZFG TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. FOG MAY RETURN FOR SOME EASTERN AREAS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS IS SUGGESTING A WEAK TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN CO AND
NORTHERN NM ON WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  THE CANADIAN GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS...BUT
THE EC SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAVING A GREATER HOLD ON THE
STATE. NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT WONT BE TERRIBLY COLD. THEREAFTER...THE
WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS RIDGING SLIDES OVER NM.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF POOR VENTILATION ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THE STORM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL DROP SOUTH WHILE A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH JET STREAM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING A DRYING TREND TO THE STATE. A MOSTLY
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SETTLE OVER NM NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE EXCEPT FOR A SETBACK IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS NV WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY. RAIN WILL FALL IN THE
VALLEYS AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH SNOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHER THAN FRIDAY IN MOST PLACES...THEY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH IN THE 70S AND
80S. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE MOSTLY POOR.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ALSO ENTER EASTERN NM TONIGHT. MEANWHILE
THE STORM TO OUR WEST WILL DIVE SOUTH AND LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE
STATE. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER MOST AREAS BUT BE LIGHT.
DENSE FOG WILL BE A CONCERN AT SOME LOCATIONS. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT WOULD BE NORTHWEST NM AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING PAST NM SUNDAY. LINGERING RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EAST. DESPITE THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HIGHS WILL CLIMB A LITTLE ABOVE TODAYS VALUES
IN THE EAST...AND SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER IN THE WEST. VENT RATES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY POOR EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR TO GOOD VALUES OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE WITH BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS...BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE. THE
STRONGEST SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRY NEXT WEEK AND EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NICELY EARLY IN THE WEEK...RECOVERING
TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY IN THE
EAST...WHILE WESTERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. VENT RATES
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY FAIR TO
GOOD RATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND VERY GOOD RATES WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTH. RATES WILL DROP BACK TO FAIR AND POOR THURSDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH MOSTLY 30S AND 40S NEXT WEEK. NIGHTTIME
RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

CHJ

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ503-518-524-527-528-531-533.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-504-506-508-510>517-521>523-526-529.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501.

&&

$$

40






000
FXUS65 KABQ 311019
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
319 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. SNOW
WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOCALES NEAREST TO MOUNTAIN
RANGES. ANY SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD TURN TO
RAIN LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...THOUGH FOG
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR MANY LOCALES. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN TODAY. THE WARMING TREND WILL
THEN BEGIN IN EARNEST ON GROUNDHOG DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. THE ONLY DETOUR FROM THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE A
MODEST BACK DOOR FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE WET DAY BEFORE THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT DRIES OUT. SNOW
CONTINUES AT KFMN SO WILL EXTEND THE WINTER WX ADVY OUT THRU 19Z.
SNOW CONTINUES AROUND KGUP AND KGNT...BUT WILL NOT REISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS THERE AS IMPACTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE MINIMAL...AND ALSO
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTN.

OUR FRIENDLY UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT MUCH NEEDED PRECIP TO THE
STATE WILL DIVE OR REORGANIZE ITSELF SOUTHWARD TODAY...BUT NOT
BEFORE SENDING ONE LAST PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN NM. THE GFS
AND EC ARE THE MOST BULLISH AT CONTINUING PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT THEN MOST MODELS TEND TO AGREE PRECIP WILL START TO
BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN UPPER
LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER BAJA WHILE THE VORT MAX OVER NORTHERN NM
WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIVES SOUTH.
THIS TROUGH WILL GRAZE NE NM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BACKS INTO EASTERN NM. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST ON
SUNDAY PROBABLY WONT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM TODAY HOWEVER.
SPEAKING OF TODAYS TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE OWING TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...WET GROUND AND
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. HAVE ALSO RAISED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT FOR AT
LEAST THE FORMER TWO REASONS. GUIDANCE SEEMS ODDLY COLD TONIGHT
DESPITE DEWPOINTS NOT LIKELY TO DRY OUT SOME UNTIL SOMETIME SUNDAY
AT THE EARLIEST. FOG/FZFG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TONIGHT.  GIVEN HOW
WET IT HAS BEEN...IT COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE BUT MODELS
SUGGEST CLOUD COVER MAY BREAK UP LATE TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...SO HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THERE. HOWEVER BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...HAVE ALSO ADDED FOG/FZFG TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. FOG MAY RETURN FOR SOME EASTERN AREAS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS IS SUGGESTING A WEAK TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN CO AND
NORTHERN NM ON WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  THE CANADIAN GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS...BUT
THE EC SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAVING A GREATER HOLD ON THE
STATE. NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT WONT BE TERRIBLY COLD. THEREAFTER...THE
WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS RIDGING SLIDES OVER NM.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF POOR VENTILATION ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THE STORM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL DROP SOUTH WHILE A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH JET STREAM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING A DRYING TREND TO THE STATE. A MOSTLY
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SETTLE OVER NM NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE EXCEPT FOR A SETBACK IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS NV WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY. RAIN WILL FALL IN THE
VALLEYS AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH SNOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHER THAN FRIDAY IN MOST PLACES...THEY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH IN THE 70S AND
80S. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE MOSTLY POOR.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ALSO ENTER EASTERN NM TONIGHT. MEANWHILE
THE STORM TO OUR WEST WILL DIVE SOUTH AND LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE
STATE. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER MOST AREAS BUT BE LIGHT.
DENSE FOG WILL BE A CONCERN AT SOME LOCATIONS. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT WOULD BE NORTHWEST NM AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING PAST NM SUNDAY. LINGERING RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EAST. DESPITE THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HIGHS WILL CLIMB A LITTLE ABOVE TODAYS VALUES
IN THE EAST...AND SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER IN THE WEST. VENT RATES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY POOR EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR TO GOOD VALUES OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE WITH BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS...BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE. THE
STRONGEST SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRY NEXT WEEK AND EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NICELY EARLY IN THE WEEK...RECOVERING
TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY IN THE
EAST...WHILE WESTERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. VENT RATES
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY FAIR TO
GOOD RATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND VERY GOOD RATES WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTH. RATES WILL DROP BACK TO FAIR AND POOR THURSDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH MOSTLY 30S AND 40S NEXT WEEK. NIGHTTIME
RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW TO PERSIST MOST AREAS THROUGH 18Z WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WITH LOCAL
IFR IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AREAS
OF FOG WITH VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE WILL ALSO PERSIST
THROUGH 12Z TO 15Z...INCLUDING THE KCQC AREA. WILL BE DIFFICULT
FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS THOUGH CANT RULE OUT SOME SNOW OR A MIX...HOWEVER...RAIN
WILL PERSIST IN THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...INCLUDING KROW. SPATIAL
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY AFTER 18Z...ESPECIALLY EAST...
WITH RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW CONTINUING WEST AND NORTH.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  42  28  45  24 /  90  20   0   5
DULCE...........................  36  23  40  20 /  90  40   5   5
CUBA............................  34  27  38  22 / 100  30   5   5
GALLUP..........................  44  26  49  21 /  90  20   5   5
EL MORRO........................  37  25  43  22 / 100  20   5   5
GRANTS..........................  41  27  45  19 /  90  20   5   5
QUEMADO.........................  46  29  46  22 /  80  30  10   5
GLENWOOD........................  49  36  56  32 /  90  20  10   5
CHAMA...........................  33  19  39  13 /  90  50  10   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  34  27  40  25 /  90  30  10   5
PECOS...........................  33  24  37  24 /  90  30  20   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  34  21  35  14 /  70  50  10   5
RED RIVER.......................  31  19  32  12 /  70  60  20   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  34  21  34  12 /  70  50  20   5
TAOS............................  35  24  38  15 /  70  40  10   5
MORA............................  40  25  39  21 /  80  40  20   5
ESPANOLA........................  38  28  44  23 /  80  30   5   5
SANTA FE........................  34  26  38  24 /  90  30  10   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  37  26  41  22 /  90  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  42  30  47  27 /  90  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  44  31  49  28 /  90  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  45  29  50  25 /  90  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  43  30  47  27 /  90  20   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  45  31  49  25 /  90  20   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  41  31  46  28 /  90  20   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  47  35  50  29 /  80  20  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  38  27  40  26 /  90  20  10   5
TIJERAS.........................  39  28  43  26 /  90  20  10   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  38  26  41  21 /  90  20  20   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  35  27  38  23 /  90  20  20   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  40  30  44  27 /  80  20  20   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  43  35  48  30 /  80  20  20   5
RUIDOSO.........................  40  29  43  26 /  80  20  20   5
CAPULIN.........................  33  24  37  21 /  40  60  10   5
RATON...........................  39  26  38  20 /  40  50  10   5
SPRINGER........................  39  26  39  22 /  50  40  10   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  36  25  36  21 /  80  30  20   5
CLAYTON.........................  43  28  40  25 /  40  50  10   5
ROY.............................  36  28  38  24 /  60  40  10   5
CONCHAS.........................  43  33  45  29 /  70  20  10   5
SANTA ROSA......................  43  31  44  28 /  80  20  10   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  45  31  44  28 /  80  20  10   5
CLOVIS..........................  43  34  45  27 /  90  20  10   5
PORTALES........................  45  34  46  28 /  90  20  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  45  34  46  29 /  80  20  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  49  36  50  29 /  80  10  10   5
PICACHO.........................  50  35  45  28 /  70  10  20   5
ELK.............................  47  34  41  27 /  70  20  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ503-518-524-527-528-531-533.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-504-506-508-510>517-521>523-526-529.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501.

&&

$$

34







000
FXUS65 KABQ 311019
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
319 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. SNOW
WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOCALES NEAREST TO MOUNTAIN
RANGES. ANY SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD TURN TO
RAIN LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...THOUGH FOG
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR MANY LOCALES. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN TODAY. THE WARMING TREND WILL
THEN BEGIN IN EARNEST ON GROUNDHOG DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. THE ONLY DETOUR FROM THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE A
MODEST BACK DOOR FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE WET DAY BEFORE THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT DRIES OUT. SNOW
CONTINUES AT KFMN SO WILL EXTEND THE WINTER WX ADVY OUT THRU 19Z.
SNOW CONTINUES AROUND KGUP AND KGNT...BUT WILL NOT REISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS THERE AS IMPACTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE MINIMAL...AND ALSO
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTN.

OUR FRIENDLY UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT MUCH NEEDED PRECIP TO THE
STATE WILL DIVE OR REORGANIZE ITSELF SOUTHWARD TODAY...BUT NOT
BEFORE SENDING ONE LAST PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN NM. THE GFS
AND EC ARE THE MOST BULLISH AT CONTINUING PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT THEN MOST MODELS TEND TO AGREE PRECIP WILL START TO
BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN UPPER
LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER BAJA WHILE THE VORT MAX OVER NORTHERN NM
WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIVES SOUTH.
THIS TROUGH WILL GRAZE NE NM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BACKS INTO EASTERN NM. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST ON
SUNDAY PROBABLY WONT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM TODAY HOWEVER.
SPEAKING OF TODAYS TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE OWING TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...WET GROUND AND
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. HAVE ALSO RAISED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT FOR AT
LEAST THE FORMER TWO REASONS. GUIDANCE SEEMS ODDLY COLD TONIGHT
DESPITE DEWPOINTS NOT LIKELY TO DRY OUT SOME UNTIL SOMETIME SUNDAY
AT THE EARLIEST. FOG/FZFG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TONIGHT.  GIVEN HOW
WET IT HAS BEEN...IT COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE BUT MODELS
SUGGEST CLOUD COVER MAY BREAK UP LATE TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...SO HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THERE. HOWEVER BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...HAVE ALSO ADDED FOG/FZFG TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. FOG MAY RETURN FOR SOME EASTERN AREAS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS IS SUGGESTING A WEAK TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN CO AND
NORTHERN NM ON WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  THE CANADIAN GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS...BUT
THE EC SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAVING A GREATER HOLD ON THE
STATE. NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT WONT BE TERRIBLY COLD. THEREAFTER...THE
WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS RIDGING SLIDES OVER NM.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF POOR VENTILATION ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THE STORM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL DROP SOUTH WHILE A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH JET STREAM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING A DRYING TREND TO THE STATE. A MOSTLY
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SETTLE OVER NM NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE EXCEPT FOR A SETBACK IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS NV WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY. RAIN WILL FALL IN THE
VALLEYS AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH SNOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHER THAN FRIDAY IN MOST PLACES...THEY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH IN THE 70S AND
80S. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE MOSTLY POOR.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ALSO ENTER EASTERN NM TONIGHT. MEANWHILE
THE STORM TO OUR WEST WILL DIVE SOUTH AND LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE
STATE. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER MOST AREAS BUT BE LIGHT.
DENSE FOG WILL BE A CONCERN AT SOME LOCATIONS. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT WOULD BE NORTHWEST NM AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING PAST NM SUNDAY. LINGERING RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EAST. DESPITE THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HIGHS WILL CLIMB A LITTLE ABOVE TODAYS VALUES
IN THE EAST...AND SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER IN THE WEST. VENT RATES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY POOR EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR TO GOOD VALUES OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE WITH BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS...BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE. THE
STRONGEST SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRY NEXT WEEK AND EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NICELY EARLY IN THE WEEK...RECOVERING
TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY IN THE
EAST...WHILE WESTERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. VENT RATES
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY FAIR TO
GOOD RATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND VERY GOOD RATES WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTH. RATES WILL DROP BACK TO FAIR AND POOR THURSDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH MOSTLY 30S AND 40S NEXT WEEK. NIGHTTIME
RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW TO PERSIST MOST AREAS THROUGH 18Z WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WITH LOCAL
IFR IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AREAS
OF FOG WITH VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE WILL ALSO PERSIST
THROUGH 12Z TO 15Z...INCLUDING THE KCQC AREA. WILL BE DIFFICULT
FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS THOUGH CANT RULE OUT SOME SNOW OR A MIX...HOWEVER...RAIN
WILL PERSIST IN THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...INCLUDING KROW. SPATIAL
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY AFTER 18Z...ESPECIALLY EAST...
WITH RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW CONTINUING WEST AND NORTH.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  42  28  45  24 /  90  20   0   5
DULCE...........................  36  23  40  20 /  90  40   5   5
CUBA............................  34  27  38  22 / 100  30   5   5
GALLUP..........................  44  26  49  21 /  90  20   5   5
EL MORRO........................  37  25  43  22 / 100  20   5   5
GRANTS..........................  41  27  45  19 /  90  20   5   5
QUEMADO.........................  46  29  46  22 /  80  30  10   5
GLENWOOD........................  49  36  56  32 /  90  20  10   5
CHAMA...........................  33  19  39  13 /  90  50  10   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  34  27  40  25 /  90  30  10   5
PECOS...........................  33  24  37  24 /  90  30  20   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  34  21  35  14 /  70  50  10   5
RED RIVER.......................  31  19  32  12 /  70  60  20   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  34  21  34  12 /  70  50  20   5
TAOS............................  35  24  38  15 /  70  40  10   5
MORA............................  40  25  39  21 /  80  40  20   5
ESPANOLA........................  38  28  44  23 /  80  30   5   5
SANTA FE........................  34  26  38  24 /  90  30  10   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  37  26  41  22 /  90  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  42  30  47  27 /  90  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  44  31  49  28 /  90  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  45  29  50  25 /  90  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  43  30  47  27 /  90  20   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  45  31  49  25 /  90  20   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  41  31  46  28 /  90  20   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  47  35  50  29 /  80  20  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  38  27  40  26 /  90  20  10   5
TIJERAS.........................  39  28  43  26 /  90  20  10   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  38  26  41  21 /  90  20  20   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  35  27  38  23 /  90  20  20   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  40  30  44  27 /  80  20  20   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  43  35  48  30 /  80  20  20   5
RUIDOSO.........................  40  29  43  26 /  80  20  20   5
CAPULIN.........................  33  24  37  21 /  40  60  10   5
RATON...........................  39  26  38  20 /  40  50  10   5
SPRINGER........................  39  26  39  22 /  50  40  10   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  36  25  36  21 /  80  30  20   5
CLAYTON.........................  43  28  40  25 /  40  50  10   5
ROY.............................  36  28  38  24 /  60  40  10   5
CONCHAS.........................  43  33  45  29 /  70  20  10   5
SANTA ROSA......................  43  31  44  28 /  80  20  10   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  45  31  44  28 /  80  20  10   5
CLOVIS..........................  43  34  45  27 /  90  20  10   5
PORTALES........................  45  34  46  28 /  90  20  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  45  34  46  29 /  80  20  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  49  36  50  29 /  80  10  10   5
PICACHO.........................  50  35  45  28 /  70  10  20   5
ELK.............................  47  34  41  27 /  70  20  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ503-518-524-527-528-531-533.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-504-506-508-510>517-521>523-526-529.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501.

&&

$$

34







000
FXUS65 KABQ 311019
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
319 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. SNOW
WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOCALES NEAREST TO MOUNTAIN
RANGES. ANY SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD TURN TO
RAIN LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...THOUGH FOG
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR MANY LOCALES. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN TODAY. THE WARMING TREND WILL
THEN BEGIN IN EARNEST ON GROUNDHOG DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. THE ONLY DETOUR FROM THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE A
MODEST BACK DOOR FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE WET DAY BEFORE THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT DRIES OUT. SNOW
CONTINUES AT KFMN SO WILL EXTEND THE WINTER WX ADVY OUT THRU 19Z.
SNOW CONTINUES AROUND KGUP AND KGNT...BUT WILL NOT REISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS THERE AS IMPACTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE MINIMAL...AND ALSO
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTN.

OUR FRIENDLY UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT MUCH NEEDED PRECIP TO THE
STATE WILL DIVE OR REORGANIZE ITSELF SOUTHWARD TODAY...BUT NOT
BEFORE SENDING ONE LAST PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN NM. THE GFS
AND EC ARE THE MOST BULLISH AT CONTINUING PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT THEN MOST MODELS TEND TO AGREE PRECIP WILL START TO
BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN UPPER
LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER BAJA WHILE THE VORT MAX OVER NORTHERN NM
WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIVES SOUTH.
THIS TROUGH WILL GRAZE NE NM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BACKS INTO EASTERN NM. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST ON
SUNDAY PROBABLY WONT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM TODAY HOWEVER.
SPEAKING OF TODAYS TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE OWING TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...WET GROUND AND
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. HAVE ALSO RAISED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT FOR AT
LEAST THE FORMER TWO REASONS. GUIDANCE SEEMS ODDLY COLD TONIGHT
DESPITE DEWPOINTS NOT LIKELY TO DRY OUT SOME UNTIL SOMETIME SUNDAY
AT THE EARLIEST. FOG/FZFG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TONIGHT.  GIVEN HOW
WET IT HAS BEEN...IT COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE BUT MODELS
SUGGEST CLOUD COVER MAY BREAK UP LATE TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...SO HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THERE. HOWEVER BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...HAVE ALSO ADDED FOG/FZFG TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. FOG MAY RETURN FOR SOME EASTERN AREAS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS IS SUGGESTING A WEAK TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN CO AND
NORTHERN NM ON WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  THE CANADIAN GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS...BUT
THE EC SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAVING A GREATER HOLD ON THE
STATE. NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT WONT BE TERRIBLY COLD. THEREAFTER...THE
WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS RIDGING SLIDES OVER NM.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF POOR VENTILATION ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THE STORM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL DROP SOUTH WHILE A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH JET STREAM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING A DRYING TREND TO THE STATE. A MOSTLY
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SETTLE OVER NM NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE EXCEPT FOR A SETBACK IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS NV WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY. RAIN WILL FALL IN THE
VALLEYS AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH SNOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHER THAN FRIDAY IN MOST PLACES...THEY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH IN THE 70S AND
80S. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE MOSTLY POOR.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ALSO ENTER EASTERN NM TONIGHT. MEANWHILE
THE STORM TO OUR WEST WILL DIVE SOUTH AND LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE
STATE. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER MOST AREAS BUT BE LIGHT.
DENSE FOG WILL BE A CONCERN AT SOME LOCATIONS. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT WOULD BE NORTHWEST NM AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING PAST NM SUNDAY. LINGERING RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EAST. DESPITE THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HIGHS WILL CLIMB A LITTLE ABOVE TODAYS VALUES
IN THE EAST...AND SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER IN THE WEST. VENT RATES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY POOR EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR TO GOOD VALUES OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE WITH BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS...BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE. THE
STRONGEST SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRY NEXT WEEK AND EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NICELY EARLY IN THE WEEK...RECOVERING
TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY IN THE
EAST...WHILE WESTERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. VENT RATES
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY FAIR TO
GOOD RATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND VERY GOOD RATES WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTH. RATES WILL DROP BACK TO FAIR AND POOR THURSDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH MOSTLY 30S AND 40S NEXT WEEK. NIGHTTIME
RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW TO PERSIST MOST AREAS THROUGH 18Z WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WITH LOCAL
IFR IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AREAS
OF FOG WITH VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE WILL ALSO PERSIST
THROUGH 12Z TO 15Z...INCLUDING THE KCQC AREA. WILL BE DIFFICULT
FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS THOUGH CANT RULE OUT SOME SNOW OR A MIX...HOWEVER...RAIN
WILL PERSIST IN THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...INCLUDING KROW. SPATIAL
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY AFTER 18Z...ESPECIALLY EAST...
WITH RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW CONTINUING WEST AND NORTH.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  42  28  45  24 /  90  20   0   5
DULCE...........................  36  23  40  20 /  90  40   5   5
CUBA............................  34  27  38  22 / 100  30   5   5
GALLUP..........................  44  26  49  21 /  90  20   5   5
EL MORRO........................  37  25  43  22 / 100  20   5   5
GRANTS..........................  41  27  45  19 /  90  20   5   5
QUEMADO.........................  46  29  46  22 /  80  30  10   5
GLENWOOD........................  49  36  56  32 /  90  20  10   5
CHAMA...........................  33  19  39  13 /  90  50  10   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  34  27  40  25 /  90  30  10   5
PECOS...........................  33  24  37  24 /  90  30  20   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  34  21  35  14 /  70  50  10   5
RED RIVER.......................  31  19  32  12 /  70  60  20   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  34  21  34  12 /  70  50  20   5
TAOS............................  35  24  38  15 /  70  40  10   5
MORA............................  40  25  39  21 /  80  40  20   5
ESPANOLA........................  38  28  44  23 /  80  30   5   5
SANTA FE........................  34  26  38  24 /  90  30  10   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  37  26  41  22 /  90  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  42  30  47  27 /  90  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  44  31  49  28 /  90  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  45  29  50  25 /  90  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  43  30  47  27 /  90  20   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  45  31  49  25 /  90  20   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  41  31  46  28 /  90  20   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  47  35  50  29 /  80  20  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  38  27  40  26 /  90  20  10   5
TIJERAS.........................  39  28  43  26 /  90  20  10   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  38  26  41  21 /  90  20  20   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  35  27  38  23 /  90  20  20   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  40  30  44  27 /  80  20  20   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  43  35  48  30 /  80  20  20   5
RUIDOSO.........................  40  29  43  26 /  80  20  20   5
CAPULIN.........................  33  24  37  21 /  40  60  10   5
RATON...........................  39  26  38  20 /  40  50  10   5
SPRINGER........................  39  26  39  22 /  50  40  10   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  36  25  36  21 /  80  30  20   5
CLAYTON.........................  43  28  40  25 /  40  50  10   5
ROY.............................  36  28  38  24 /  60  40  10   5
CONCHAS.........................  43  33  45  29 /  70  20  10   5
SANTA ROSA......................  43  31  44  28 /  80  20  10   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  45  31  44  28 /  80  20  10   5
CLOVIS..........................  43  34  45  27 /  90  20  10   5
PORTALES........................  45  34  46  28 /  90  20  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  45  34  46  29 /  80  20  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  49  36  50  29 /  80  10  10   5
PICACHO.........................  50  35  45  28 /  70  10  20   5
ELK.............................  47  34  41  27 /  70  20  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ503-518-524-527-528-531-533.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-504-506-508-510>517-521>523-526-529.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501.

&&

$$

34







000
FXUS65 KABQ 311019
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
319 AM MST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE. SNOW
WILL FAVOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND LOCALES NEAREST TO MOUNTAIN
RANGES. ANY SNOW AT LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS MORNING SHOULD TURN TO
RAIN LATER TODAY. PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT...THOUGH FOG
WILL BE A CONCERN FOR MANY LOCALES. ANOTHER BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
WILL ARRIVE ON SUNDAY...HOWEVER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE PLAINS
SHOULD NOT BE MUCH DIFFERENT THAN TODAY. THE WARMING TREND WILL
THEN BEGIN IN EARNEST ON GROUNDHOG DAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE
WORK WEEK. THE ONLY DETOUR FROM THIS WARMING TREND WILL BE A
MODEST BACK DOOR FRONT ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
ONE MORE WET DAY BEFORE THE LAND OF ENCHANTMENT DRIES OUT. SNOW
CONTINUES AT KFMN SO WILL EXTEND THE WINTER WX ADVY OUT THRU 19Z.
SNOW CONTINUES AROUND KGUP AND KGNT...BUT WILL NOT REISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS THERE AS IMPACTS SHOULD GENERALLY BE MINIMAL...AND ALSO
SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO RAIN OR A RAIN/SNOW MIX LATER THIS MORNING
AND THIS AFTN.

OUR FRIENDLY UPPER LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT MUCH NEEDED PRECIP TO THE
STATE WILL DIVE OR REORGANIZE ITSELF SOUTHWARD TODAY...BUT NOT
BEFORE SENDING ONE LAST PIECE OF ENERGY ACROSS NORTHERN NM. THE GFS
AND EC ARE THE MOST BULLISH AT CONTINUING PRECIP ACROSS THE WESTERN
TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA THIS MORNING IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS
FEATURE...BUT THEN MOST MODELS TEND TO AGREE PRECIP WILL START TO
BREAK UP THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. THE MAIN UPPER
LOW WILL DIVE SOUTH OVER BAJA WHILE THE VORT MAX OVER NORTHERN NM
WILL BE SHUNTED EASTWARD AS A NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH DIVES SOUTH.
THIS TROUGH WILL GRAZE NE NM EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AS AN ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT BACKS INTO EASTERN NM. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE EAST ON
SUNDAY PROBABLY WONT BE ALL THAT DIFFERENT FROM TODAY HOWEVER.
SPEAKING OF TODAYS TEMPS...GENERALLY WENT SEVERAL DEGREES BELOW
GUIDANCE OWING TO THE ABUNDANT CLOUD COVER...WET GROUND AND
CONTINUED PRECIPITATION. HAVE ALSO RAISED MIN TEMPS TONIGHT FOR AT
LEAST THE FORMER TWO REASONS. GUIDANCE SEEMS ODDLY COLD TONIGHT
DESPITE DEWPOINTS NOT LIKELY TO DRY OUT SOME UNTIL SOMETIME SUNDAY
AT THE EARLIEST. FOG/FZFG WILL ALSO BE A CONCERN TONIGHT.  GIVEN HOW
WET IT HAS BEEN...IT COULD OCCUR JUST ABOUT ANYWHERE BUT MODELS
SUGGEST CLOUD COVER MAY BREAK UP LATE TOMORROW NIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST...SO HAVE THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE THERE. HOWEVER BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVATIONS...HAVE ALSO ADDED FOG/FZFG TO THE EAST SLOPES
OF THE CENTRAL MTN CHAIN. FOG MAY RETURN FOR SOME EASTERN AREAS
SUNDAY NIGHT.

A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL SET UP FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE
GFS IS SUGGESTING A WEAK TROUGH WILL SLIDE ACROSS SOUTHERN CO AND
NORTHERN NM ON WEDNESDAY...PERHAPS BRINGING SOME LIGHT PRECIP TO THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST.  THE CANADIAN GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS...BUT
THE EC SHOWS THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE HAVING A GREATER HOLD ON THE
STATE. NONETHELESS...THERE SHOULD BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT ON
WEDNESDAY...THOUGH IT WONT BE TERRIBLY COLD. THEREAFTER...THE
WARMING TREND SHOULD CONTINUE AS RIDGING SLIDES OVER NM.

34

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF POOR VENTILATION ARE
ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

THE STORM OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL DROP SOUTH WHILE A TROUGH OF
LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHERN BRANCH JET STREAM WILL DROP SOUTHEAST
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY BRINGING A DRYING TREND TO THE STATE. A MOSTLY
DRY NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SETTLE OVER NM NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL
MODERATE EXCEPT FOR A SETBACK IN THE EAST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
BEHIND A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW NEAR LAS VEGAS NV WILL CONTINUE TO
LIFT MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER NEW MEXICO TODAY. RAIN WILL FALL IN THE
VALLEYS AND MUCH OF THE EASTERN PLAINS WITH SNOW MOSTLY CONFINED TO
THE MOUNTAINS AND FAR NORTHEAST. WHILE HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HIGHER THAN FRIDAY IN MOST PLACES...THEY WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW
NORMAL. MINIMUM RH VALUES WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY HIGH IN THE 70S AND
80S. VENTILATION RATES WILL BE MOSTLY POOR.

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AS A NORTHERN
BRANCH SHORT WAVE TROUGH DROPS SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL ALSO ENTER EASTERN NM TONIGHT. MEANWHILE
THE STORM TO OUR WEST WILL DIVE SOUTH AND LOSE ITS GRIP ON THE
STATE. PRECIPITATION WILL LINGER OVER MOST AREAS BUT BE LIGHT.
DENSE FOG WILL BE A CONCERN AT SOME LOCATIONS. BEST GUESS AT THIS
POINT WOULD BE NORTHWEST NM AND THE EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS.

THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL SWING PAST NM SUNDAY. LINGERING RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS WILL FAVOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AND EAST. DESPITE THE
BACK DOOR COLD FRONT HIGHS WILL CLIMB A LITTLE ABOVE TODAYS VALUES
IN THE EAST...AND SEVERAL DEGREES HIGHER IN THE WEST. VENT RATES
WILL REMAIN MOSTLY POOR EXCEPT FOR SOME FAIR TO GOOD VALUES OVER
THE EASTERN PLAINS.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE THE RULE FOR ALL OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT
WEEKEND. A FEW WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL RACE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
STATE WITH BACK DOOR COLD FRONTS...BUT NOT MUCH MOISTURE. THE
STRONGEST SHORT WAVE LOOKS TO BE WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
LIGHT SNOW IS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHEAST.
OTHERWISE IT SHOULD BE DRY NEXT WEEK AND EVEN INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE NICELY EARLY IN THE WEEK...RECOVERING
TO NEAR NORMAL MONDAY AND ABOVE NORMAL TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL DROP
BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WEDNESDAY AND BELOW NORMAL THURSDAY IN THE
EAST...WHILE WESTERN AREAS REMAIN MOSTLY ABOVE NORMAL. VENT RATES
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MOSTLY FAIR TO
GOOD RATES MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND VERY GOOD RATES WEDNESDAY ACROSS
THE WEST AND SOUTH. RATES WILL DROP BACK TO FAIR AND POOR THURSDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME IMPROVEMENT FRIDAY. MINIMUM RH VALUES
WILL GRADUALLY LOWER WITH MOSTLY 30S AND 40S NEXT WEEK. NIGHTTIME
RH RECOVERIES WILL BE GOOD TO EXCELLENT.

CHJ

&&

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW TO PERSIST MOST AREAS THROUGH 18Z WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WITH LOCAL
IFR IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AREAS
OF FOG WITH VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE WILL ALSO PERSIST
THROUGH 12Z TO 15Z...INCLUDING THE KCQC AREA. WILL BE DIFFICULT
FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS THOUGH CANT RULE OUT SOME SNOW OR A MIX...HOWEVER...RAIN
WILL PERSIST IN THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...INCLUDING KROW. SPATIAL
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY AFTER 18Z...ESPECIALLY EAST...
WITH RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW CONTINUING WEST AND NORTH.

05

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
FARMINGTON......................  42  28  45  24 /  90  20   0   5
DULCE...........................  36  23  40  20 /  90  40   5   5
CUBA............................  34  27  38  22 / 100  30   5   5
GALLUP..........................  44  26  49  21 /  90  20   5   5
EL MORRO........................  37  25  43  22 / 100  20   5   5
GRANTS..........................  41  27  45  19 /  90  20   5   5
QUEMADO.........................  46  29  46  22 /  80  30  10   5
GLENWOOD........................  49  36  56  32 /  90  20  10   5
CHAMA...........................  33  19  39  13 /  90  50  10   5
LOS ALAMOS......................  34  27  40  25 /  90  30  10   5
PECOS...........................  33  24  37  24 /  90  30  20   5
CERRO/QUESTA....................  34  21  35  14 /  70  50  10   5
RED RIVER.......................  31  19  32  12 /  70  60  20   5
ANGEL FIRE......................  34  21  34  12 /  70  50  20   5
TAOS............................  35  24  38  15 /  70  40  10   5
MORA............................  40  25  39  21 /  80  40  20   5
ESPANOLA........................  38  28  44  23 /  80  30   5   5
SANTA FE........................  34  26  38  24 /  90  30  10   5
SANTA FE AIRPORT................  37  26  41  22 /  90  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE FOOTHILLS...........  42  30  47  27 /  90  20  10   5
ALBUQUERQUE HEIGHTS.............  44  31  49  28 /  90  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE VALLEY..............  45  29  50  25 /  90  20   5   5
ALBUQUERQUE WEST MESA...........  43  30  47  27 /  90  20   0   5
LOS LUNAS.......................  45  31  49  25 /  90  20   5   5
RIO RANCHO......................  41  31  46  28 /  90  20   0   5
SOCORRO.........................  47  35  50  29 /  80  20  10   5
SANDIA PARK/CEDAR CREST.........  38  27  40  26 /  90  20  10   5
TIJERAS.........................  39  28  43  26 /  90  20  10   5
MORIARTY/ESTANCIA...............  38  26  41  21 /  90  20  20   5
CLINES CORNERS..................  35  27  38  23 /  90  20  20   5
GRAN QUIVIRA....................  40  30  44  27 /  80  20  20   5
CARRIZOZO.......................  43  35  48  30 /  80  20  20   5
RUIDOSO.........................  40  29  43  26 /  80  20  20   5
CAPULIN.........................  33  24  37  21 /  40  60  10   5
RATON...........................  39  26  38  20 /  40  50  10   5
SPRINGER........................  39  26  39  22 /  50  40  10   5
LAS VEGAS.......................  36  25  36  21 /  80  30  20   5
CLAYTON.........................  43  28  40  25 /  40  50  10   5
ROY.............................  36  28  38  24 /  60  40  10   5
CONCHAS.........................  43  33  45  29 /  70  20  10   5
SANTA ROSA......................  43  31  44  28 /  80  20  10   5
TUCUMCARI.......................  45  31  44  28 /  80  20  10   5
CLOVIS..........................  43  34  45  27 /  90  20  10   5
PORTALES........................  45  34  46  28 /  90  20  10   5
FORT SUMNER.....................  45  34  46  29 /  80  20  10   5
ROSWELL.........................  49  36  50  29 /  80  10  10   5
PICACHO.........................  50  35  45  28 /  70  10  20   5
ELK.............................  47  34  41  27 /  70  20  20   5

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ503-518-524-527-528-531-533.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
FOLLOWING ZONES...NMZ502-504-506-508-510>517-521>523-526-529.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MST TODAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501.

&&

$$

34







000
FXUS65 KABQ 310614 AAB
AFDABQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
1114 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015

.AVIATION...
06Z TAF CYCLE
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AND SNOW TO PERSIST MOST AREAS THROUGH 18Z WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS AND VSBYS AND MOUNTAINS OBSCURED WITH LOCAL
IFR IN THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS. EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS AREAS
OF FOG WITH VISIBILITIES OF ONE QUARTER MILE WILL ALSO PERSIST
THROUGH 12Z TO 15Z...INCLUDING THE KCQC AREA. WILL BE DIFFICULT
FOR RAIN TO CHANGE TO SNOW OVER THE NORTHEAST AND EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS THOUGH CANT RULE OUT SOME SNOW OR A MIX...HOWEVER...RAIN
WILL PERSIST IN THE SOUTHEAST PLAINS...INCLUDING KROW. SPATIAL
COVERAGE WILL DECREASE GRADUALLY AFTER 18Z...ESPECIALLY EAST...
WITH RAIN AND HIGH TERRAIN SNOW CONTINUING WEST AND NORTH.

05

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...256 PM MST FRI JAN 30 2015...
.SYNOPSIS...
WET AND UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY AS
ABUNDANT MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW NORTHWARD AHEAD OF A PACIFIC
LOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION LEVELS WILL ULTIMATELY RISE MAKING THE
REST OF THE PERIOD A HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW EVENT. A SECOND ATMOSPHERIC
WAVE AND ACCOMPANYING SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD
OVER THE FORECAST AREA SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND PROVIDE A
MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS STILL EXPECTED
FOR THE EARLIER PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH BOUTS OF BREEZINESS.
ANOTHER WEAK SYSTEM PASSAGE AND BACK DOOR COLD FRONT WILL BE
POSSIBLE MIDWEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
CAREFULLY ANALYZED CURRENT/EXPECTED THERMAL/MOISTURE PROFILE AND SNOW
CONDITIONS. DECIDED TO MAKE SOME ALTERATIONS TO THE CURRENT
HIGHLIGHT PACKAGE. DOWNGRADED SOME OF THE WARNINGS TO ADVISORIES
AS WELL AS CANCELLED SOME OF THE ADVISORIES. MADE SOME ADDITIONS
AND UPGRADES AS WELL. UPGRADED THE TAOS ZONE TO A WARNING
ALTHOUGH THE MAJOR PART OF THE SNOWFALL IMPACT CAME EARLIER TODAY.
SOME FREEZING TONIGHT WITH LOWER SURFACE TEMPS ACROSS THE UPPER
RIO GRANDE VALLEY IS EXPECTED AND SHOULD CREATE SOME HAZARDOUS ROAD
CONDITIONS. CAREFULLY ANALYZED SANTA FE ZONE AND DECIDED TO KEEP
THAT HIGHLIGHT AN ADVISORY. CANCELLED ADVISORY EARLY FOR ABQ METRO
AREA BECAUSE THE EXPECTED SNOW IMPACT SHOULD BE MINIMAL AND LOCALIZED THE
REST OF THE PERIOD. CANT RULE OUT SOME LOCALIZED 1 TO 2.5 INCH
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ALONG THE ABQ FOOTHILLS AND RURAL AREAS NW OF
RIO RANCHO LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY BUT IMPACT SHOULD BE
MINIMAL. ALSO ADDED FARMINGTON ZONE TO AN ADVISORY BASED ON CURRENT
CONDITIONS. THESE SNOW CONDITIONS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE
TONIGHT BUT IF THE LOW LEVEL POCKET OF COOLER AIR HANGS IN A
LITTLE LONGER THEN SLUSH FREEZING IS A POSSIBILITY. ALSO LOOKED AT
THE NORTHERN SACRAMENTO MTN AND CATRON COUNTY WARNINGS VERY
CLOSELY SINCE THE IMPACT WILL GENERALLY BE 8000 TO 8500 FEET AND
ABOVE. WILL ALLOW THE WARNING TO RIDE THERE AND LET LATER SHIFTS
DECIDE ITS FATE. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY RAIN ON SNOW
IMPACTS ACROSS CATRON COUNTY BASED ON WHAT HAS ALREADY FALLEN AND
WHAT IS EXPECTED TO FALL. THE NEW WSW PRODUCT WILL BE OUT SHORTLY.

OVERALL...MINIMIZED SNOW/FREEZING PRECIP ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE LOWEST
ELEVATIONS INCLUDING PORTIONS OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND EASTERN
PLAINS AS WELL AS WESTERN MTNS. CURRENT SNOTEL DATA SHOWS
TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING WITH HIGH DEWPOINTS ACROSS CATRON
COUNTY. THE WARM TONGUE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS HIGHER WET BULB ZERO
AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD BASED ON CURRENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY. OTHERWISE...VERY LITTLE CHANGES MADE TO THE
GRIDDED FORECAST. ADJUSTED TEMPS SLIGHTLY AND CONTINUED WITH THE
HIGH POP/QPF EVENT THROUGH SATURDAY.

WENT A LITTLE HIGHER WITH POPS SAT NIGHT INTO SUNDAY ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL MTNS AS A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK WAVE TRACK NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA. MODELS ARE
A LITTLE MORE BULLISH AND HAVE SOME CONSENSUS BETWEEN THEM FOR
THIS PERIOD. ALTHOUGH LIQUID WATER AMOUNTS WILL BE LIGHT.

STILL LOOKING AT A DRIER OVERALL PATTERN FOR THE EARLIER HALF OF
NEXT WEEK. SOME BOUTS OF BREEZINESS IS EXPECTED WITH A GRADUAL
WARMING TREND. ONLY CAVEAT TO THIS WOULD BE A BACK DOOR COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE EASTERN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY. PERHAPS SOME SHOWERS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK WAVE FAVORING THE NORTH AS WELL DURING THAT
TIME FRAME.

50

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
WITH WIDESPREAD WETTING PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT
AND SATURDAY MORNING...NO MAJOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS OUTSIDE OF
POOR VENTILATION ARE ANTICIPATED DURING THE NEXT SEVEN DAYS.

A BROAD UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT DEEP SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER NEW
MEXICO TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE ON THE RISE OVER
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WEST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN CHAIN THIS
EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS THE RELATIVELY WARM SUBTROPICAL AIRMASS
BEGINS TO MODIFY THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE.

AS NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
DROPPING SEWD THROUGH THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT...THE UPPER LOW TO THE WEST WILL BE FORCED SOUTH AND
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO NORTHERN SONORA AND CHIHUAHUA. AN ASSOCIATED
BACKDOOR COLD FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS SATURDAY
NIGHT...SPARKING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ALONG AND EAST OF THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAIN CHAIN LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL MODIFY SOMEWHAT MONDAY...WITH A STRONGER WARMUP EXPECTED
TUESDAY. MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT ANOTHER BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT WILL DROP INTO THE EASTERN PLAINS LATEDAY WEDNESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...COOLING TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN
CHAIN TO SEVERAL DEGREES TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

VENTILATION RATES WILL TREND UPWARD SOMEWHAT OVER THE EAST
SUNDAY...THEN AREAWIDE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

33

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ503-518-524-527-528-531-533.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 PM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ502-504-506-508-510>517-521>523-526-529.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
ZONES...NMZ501.

&&

$$







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